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CSU: expect a quiet 2012 Atlantic hurricane season; EF-3 tornado confirmed in Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:47 PM GMT on April 05, 2012

Expect one of the quietest Atlantic hurricane seasons since 1995 this year, say the hurricane forecasting team of Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU) in their latest seasonal forecast issued April 4. They call for an Atlantic hurricane season with below-average activity: 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. An average season has 10 - 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The 2012 forecast calls for a below-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (24% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (24% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is forecast to have a 34% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane (42% is average.) Four years with similar pre-season March atmospheric and oceanic conditions were selected as "analogue" years that the 2012 hurricane season may resemble: 2009, 2001, 1965, and 1957. These years all had neutral to El Niño conditions during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.5 named storms, 4.8 hurricanes, and 2.3 major hurricanes.


Figure 1. Departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average for April 5, 2012, as computed by NOAA's NESDIS branch. SSTs in the hurricane Main Development Region (red box) were near average to below-average.

Why the forecast of a quiet season?
The CSU team cited two main reasons why this may be a quieter than average hurricane season:

1) La Niña has weakened rapidly over the tropical Eastern Pacific over the past month, and is expected to be gone by the end of April. In its wake, El Niño conditions may develop in time for the August - September - October peak of hurricane season. If El Niño conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart. The CSU team is leaning towards putting their trust in the ECMWF model, which is predicting that a weak El Niño event will be in place by fall.

2) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N were near average to below average in March 2012. Virtually all African waves originate in the MDR, and these African waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. This year's SSTs in the MDR are among the coolest we've seen since our current active hurricane period began in 1995. The cool temperatures are largely due to strong surface winds that blew during the winter over the tropical Atlantic in response to the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO.) The strong winds stirred up the water, bringing up cooler waters from the depths.

How good are the April forecasts?
The forecasters are using a new statistical model developed last year for making April forecasts, so we don't have a long enough track record to judge how good the new model is. The new model correctly predicted a more active than average season for last year, though called for more activity than was actually observed. However, April forecasts of hurricane season activity are low-skill, since they must deal with the so-called "predictability barrier." April is the time of year when the El Niño/La Niña phenomenon commonly undergoes a rapid change from one state to another, making it difficult to predict whether we will have El Niño, La Niña, or neutral conditions in place for the coming hurricane season. Correctly predicting this is key, since if El Niño, conditions are present this fall, this will likely bring about a quiet Atlantic hurricane season due to increased upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic creating wind shear that will tend to tear storms apart.

CSU maintains an Excel spreadsheet of their forecast errors ( expressed as a mathematical correlation coefficient, where positive means a skilled forecast, and negative means they did worse than climatology) for their their April forecasts. For now, these April forecasts should simply be viewed as an interesting research effort that has the potential to make skillful forecasts. The next CSU forecast, due by June 1, is the one worth paying attention to. Their early June forecasts have shown considerable skill over the years.

Preliminary NWS survey of the April 3rd, 2012 Dallas, Texas tornadoes
The Fort Worth Weather Service office began surveying tornado damage yesterday from three tornadoes that ripped through the Dallas metro area on Tuesday afternoon. Official storm surveys will be released in the next few days. The Arlington/Kennendale tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2. They suspect wind speeds peaked around 135mph, a path length of 4.6 miles, and a maximum width of 400 yards (1/4 mile). The Lancaster/Hutchins tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-2, and they suspect it had a maximum width of 200 yards (1/8 mile). The Forney tornado has a preliminary rating of EF-3, with suspected winds up to 150 mph. Surveys are ongoing--there's a lot of damage to see along the tornado paths. These ratings reflect the most severe damage the teams have seen so far. Eighteen tornado warnings were issued by the National Weather Service in Fort Worth on Tuesday, which saved hundreds of lives. There were no fatalities Tuesday, which is welcome news in the wake of 2011's deadly tornado season.


Figure 2. This photo was taken by a NWS Storm Survey team in Lancaster TX on April 4, 2012. It shows EF-2 tornado damage that occurred in parts of Lancaster on April 3, 2012.


Figure 3. From the Weather Service: This is an aerial photograph of a tornado damaged area in Arlington TX. The damage from the tornado that affected Kennedale and Arlington on April 3, 2012 has been given a preliminary rating of EF-2. The photo was taken on Wednesday, April 4, looking to the east.

Portlight disaster relief charity responds to this year's tornadoes
Disaster relief charity portlight.org sent Thomas Hudson to the DFW area yesterday to do damage assessment and determine whether there is a need for Portlight's services in the wake of the tornadoes. Check out the Portlight blog to see the latest updates, and catch up the great work they've been doing in Harrisburg, Illinois in the wake of the devastating EF-4 tornado that hit the town on Leap Day, 2012.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting weatherh98:


Things prolly don't cost as much either.
Less tax pluss you learn to live with less and no heating charges as the teps are usually between 70 and 110
I hate being teased by summer. Florida was at 90^F for a week in my area, then we get hit with one soon to be two cold fronts bringing lows down in the 50s and highs barely into the 80s or upper 70s.

If you're going to get hot FL, at least stay that way as much as it is unpleasant. Oh well, in two weeks it will be blazing hot with 100% humidity. I just want to see all the severe thunderstorms pop up this year, El Nino years are generally more active IMO (2009's Severe Weather season in FL was pretty impressive)
Quoting RTSplayer:


The average commute in the U.S. is like 16 miles one way, and in Louisiana I think it's actually significantly higher.
a Bus thicket in belize is about 2.50 and a regular restaurant meal is also 2.50 us dollars
The GFS is not particularly fond of Thursday's potential Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak, with meager dewpoints and shear and all, but boy does it love Saturday and on. It has very good hodographs and Skew-T's, and show back to back to back (and on...) outbreaks starting from Saturday and continuing through at least Wednesday (of next week).
Ugh, another one of these...

URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA
431 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

...CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS FOR MONDAY ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW
ENGLAND...

CTZ002>004-MAZ002>024-026-NHZ011-012-015-RIZ001>0 08-090445-
/O.UPG.KBOX.FW.A.0007.120409T1400Z-120410T0000Z/
/O.NEW.KBOX.FW.W.0007.120409T1400Z-120410T0000Z/
HARTFORD CT-TOLLAND CT-WINDHAM CT-WESTERN FRANKLIN MA-
EASTERN FRANKLIN MA-NORTHERN WORCESTER MA-CENTRAL MIDDLESEX MA-
WESTERN ESSEX MA-EASTERN ESSEX MA-WESTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-
WESTERN HAMPDEN MA-EASTERN HAMPSHIRE MA-EASTERN HAMPDEN MA-
SOUTHERN WORCESTER MA-WESTERN NORFOLK MA-SOUTHEAST MIDDLESEX MA-
SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA-NORTHERN BRISTOL MA-
WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA-EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA-
SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA-
NORTHERN MIDDLESEX MA-CHESHIRE NH-EASTERN HILLSBOROUGH NH-
WESTERN AND CENTRAL HILLSBOROUGH NH-NORTHWEST PROVIDENCE RI-
SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-WESTERN KENT RI-EASTERN KENT RI-
BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI-NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI-
431 PM EDT SUN APR 8 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY FOR
MUCH OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS...ALL OF
RHODE ISLAND... AND A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON HAS ISSUED A RED FLAG
WARNING FOR ALL OF THE TAUNTON FORECAST AREA...INCLUDING MUCH OF
NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS...ALL OF RHODE
ISLAND...AND A PORTION OF SOUTHERN NEW HAMPSHIRE. THE RED FLAG
WARNING IS IN EFFECT FROM 10 AM TO 8 PM EDT MONDAY. THE FIRE
WEATHER WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT.

* AFFECTED AREA...ALL OF THE TAUNTON FORECAST AREA WHICH INCLUDES
MUCH OF NORTHERN CONNECTICUT...MOST OF MASSACHUSETTS...ALL OF
RHODE ISLAND...AND CHESHIRE AND HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES IN NEW
HAMPSHIRE.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS FROM 30 TO 40 MPH.

* TIMING...FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH EARLY EVENING. THE
STRONGEST WIND GUSTS MAY OCCUR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON OVER
WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

* RELATIVE HUMIDITY...RANGING FROM 25 TO 30 PERCENT IN WESTERN
AREAS TO 30 TO 35 PERCENT IN EASTERN AREAS WITH 40 TO 45 PERCENT
ON CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS.

* TEMPERATURES...HIGHS IN THE 50S.

* IMPACTS...STATE FIRE WEATHER MANAGERS HAVE INFORMED US THAT ANY
FIRES THAT DEVELOP MONDAY WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO SPREAD
RAPIDLY. OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING MEANS THAT CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS
ARE EITHER OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL SHORTLY. A COMBINATION OF
STRONG WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE AN ELEVATED
FIRE SPREAD POTENTIAL.

&&

$$
FIELD

The drought is really getting bad up here... We haven't had any significant rain since the end of February, very uncommon up here especially this time of year.
Wow, look at all of the record low daily stream flows from the Upper Midwest to New England and down in the Southeast. I knew it's been dry but I didn't realize it's been this dry. Widespread severe hydrologic drought in the east, with even some extreme drought in parts of New England. Just imagine how bad it will be in the summer if we don't get any rain.



I want some Japanese foods...
Quoting ClimateChange:
Wow, look at all of the record low daily stream flows from the Upper Midwest to New England and down in the Southeast. I knew it's been dry but I didn't realize it's been this dry. Widespread severe hydrologic drought in the east, with even some extreme drought in parts of New England. Just imagine how bad it will be in the summer if we don't get any rain.





The CPC must be expecting a hurricane for the Gulf or something... No relief for me though...

Oily Confessions:-

http://news.uk.msn.com/uk/69-spills-reported-in-n orth-sea-1

"There have been 69 reported incidents of oil and chemical spills in the North Sea during the last three months, figures have revealed."

The above of course are only the ones that have to be confessed too. That's 3 months worth so it would add up to about 280 a year; average "of course."

On the subject of the wages thing that has been discussed. The current situation is becoming one of lack of full time work and a lot of people I know are now working only 1 or 2 days a week. If they earn about $10 an hour which is about average now down from $15 an hour 10 years ago, then they will only earn from $80 to $160 a week, this translates to about $2 to $4 an hour if you look at it from a 40 hours week as 60 to 80% of the week is not worked.
I can only speak for the areas of Europe I am familiar with which include the UK and Southern Spain where we have 23% registered unemployment and rising. Any offers of work will be treated with a very positive and serious response.


LOL!
On the subject of the wages thing that has been discussed. The current situation is becoming one of lack of full time work and a lot of people I know are now working only 1 or 2 days a week. If they earn about $10 an hour which is about average now down from $15 an hour 10 years ago, then they will only earn from $80 to $160 a week, this translates to about $2 to $4 an hour if you look at it from a 40 hours week as 60 to 80% of the week is not worked.
I can only speak for the areas of Europe I am familiar with which include the UK and Southern Spain where we have 23% registered unemployment and rising. Any offers of work will be treated with a very positive and serious response.



Yup.

More and more, technology makes "work" obsolete, as fewer and fewer people are needed to update and maintain automated systems.

But of course, everyone needs money to live.

Of course, there isn't even an conception of a political or economic social system to handle the moral, social, and economic crisis this is creating in developed nations.

If you happen to own the automated manufacturing facility, or the automated warehouse, you are very happy, or at least should be making more profits than ever before with less overhead than ever before, which explains why owners and CEOs make 10 to 100 times more money relative to mean than at any previous time in history.


If you are an average Joe, or even an IT person, or in some cases even an Engineer who is replaced simply because the automation has been optimized and you are no longer needed, etc, then you are just SOL.

The jobs aren't coming back, and even farming is becoming more and more automation too.

In fact, I suspect some factories have become so advanced that they've actually had to cut production due to decreased demand. I should know, I used to work for one of them a few years ago. They increased their max productivity by like 12% without even adding new machines, just making minor tweaks to their systems, etc, and could probably get another 10 to 15% out of them if needed...and yet, as it was, they actually had to shut entire lines down for part of the week 4 months out of the year, because of beating demand.

I'm guessing they probably meet demand almost year round now on half the lines, just a guess, unless they've got a new customer or something. Of course, that translates to fewer jobs and fewer hours.

When I worked there, I actually knew an easy way to fix the system so they could have permanently laid off half the work force and would never have needed them. I never mentioned it to anybody, basically a million dollar per year idea, but if I did that about 30 people would lose their jobs in that one facility alone, or as many as 400 company-wide.
1013. ncstorm
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The GFS is not particularly fond of Thursday's potential Severe Weather and Tornado Outbreak, with meager dewpoints and shear and all, but boy does it love Saturday and on. It has very good hodographs and Skew-T's, and show back to back to back (and on...) outbreaks starting from Saturday and continuing through at least Wednesday (of next week).


Isnt the lastest GFS just started running?
Quoting ClimateChange:
Wow, look at all of the record low daily stream flows from the Upper Midwest to New England and down in the Southeast. I knew it's been dry but I didn't realize it's been this dry. Widespread severe hydrologic drought in the east, with even some extreme drought in parts of New England. Just imagine how bad it will be in the summer if we don't get any rain.





Just focusing on the northeast, because I live there, a lot of the problem is that the streams/creeks/"rivers" really aren't that deep to begin with- -with the exception of the Hudson River, of course. So, even though the US drought monitor site only has us as "abnormally dry" to "moderate drought" it doesn't take much to have notable effects on the local bodies of water. I've been going through the drought archives, and if the current pattern persists for about another few weeks, parts of the northeast, ie the hudson valley, could potentially be looking at their most significant drought since 2002. - - in either way, it's even more remarkable when one considers the record flooding from irene and lee just six months ago.
Quoting ncstorm:


Isnt the lastest GFS just started running?

Yes, the 18Z GFS just started running.
Noting:-1012. RTSplayer,
Off subject of weather but!!
Thank you for your comment, here's a bit of reality:-
I am amongst other things a highly experienced textile, woven fabric, designer, on our machines designed in 1860 I can weave 20, 6 foot long scarves an hour, a modern loom can weave about 80 an hour. Woven fabric rates vary from 4 to 10 yards an hour on the 1860 looms and up to 40 yards an hour on modern looms.
The problem facing manufacturers is not production but how to sell the product, if people don't earn or have the cash they don't buy products as they are preoccupied with basic survival, this is what is now happening in Greece and to a lesser extent in the rest of Europe.
I also work in building construction. Recently we built a house from bricks that were collected from a building rubble dump as the client hadn't the cash to buy new bricks, we cleaned them up and reused them, we even collected steel reinforcing bars from a demolition site.Time has become unimportant, its the basic availability of work that counts now.
This is not the 3rd world but we are using their techniques.
Look at these Gulf waters! For a season, most likely going to be focused closer to home, this is something you really don't want to see at all.
Has anybody ever come across a problem with Google Chrome where after you close it, go do something else, and then pull it back up, it won't load?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Look at these Gulf waters! For a season, most likely going to be focused closer to home, this is something you really don't want to see at all.

Look at those waters in the East Pacific! We'll be seeing some monsters out there this year.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Look at these Gulf waters! For a season, most likely going to be focused closer to home, this is something you really don't want to see at all.

Yeah, it definitely does not bode well for United States Gulf Coast this season. Additionally, Gulf wind shear has generally been running below average, although it has risen slightly to normal levels in the past few days.

Vertical instability has dropped some as well.





That's probably because it is dry in the Gulf of Mexico now though, and will change when it gets moist.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Look at those waters in the East Pacific! We'll be seeing some monsters out there this year.

The waters in that location are pretty consistent from year to year. Even last year's La Niña did not cool the waters there down.

The shear has picked back up in the Gulf region becuase of the Sub-tropical Jet stream streaming more north now... Its heading north. The ITCZ will be doing the same soon. The first wave tracking of the season should begin in a couple of weeks.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Look at those waters in the East Pacific! We'll be seeing some monsters out there this year.


Indeed,for sure the EPAC will be much more active than in the past two seasons.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:


The CPC must be expecting a hurricane for the Gulf or something... No relief for me though...


Oh goody more rain, I'll take it, but i'd be willing to share it with the others now that we've improved.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Noting:-1012. RTSplayer,
Off subject of weather but!!
Thank you for your comment, here's a bit of reality:-
I am amongst other things a highly experienced textile, woven fabric, designer, on our machines designed in 1860 I can weave 20, 6 foot long scarves an hour, a modern loom can weave about 80 an hour. Woven fabric rates vary from 4 to 10 yards an hour on the 1860 looms and up to 40 yards an hour on modern looms.
The problem facing manufacturers is not production but how to sell the product, if people don't earn or have the cash they don't buy products as they are preoccupied with basic survival, this is what is now happening in Greece and to a lesser extent in the rest of Europe.


yes, that's the end of the cycle I suppose, but at the end of the day, the corporations will still own the patents to everything and get through somehow, or else the banks will foreclose on them or they'll buy one another out.

Owners and CEO types have enough money lying around somewhere that a recession doesn't really "hurt" them personally in any way. They may not make as much money as they'd prefer, but they still get to live like a king anyway.

So when all the smoke and mirrors clears, most of the same people will be sitting around on top, and largely un-phased, sure a few changes here and there.

Normal people don't have that luxury, and lose everything they own, and then end up on social security or some other program, and then have to listen to Republicans blame them for not trying hard enough.

I also work in building construction. Recently we built a house from bricks that were collected from a building rubble dump as the client hadn't the cash to buy new bricks, we cleaned them up and reused them, we even collected steel reinforcing bars from a demolition site.Time has become unimportant, its the basic availability of work that counts now.
This is not the 3rd world but we are using their techniques.


Good stuff.

If everyone did that, housing and construction prices would be lower, and we'd have less pollution to boot.


The housing market collapsed for several reasons, main three are:

1, they were over priced to begin with.

2, People buying bigger than was reasonable.

3, Trend of smaller families over the past 3 generations means that the number of new homes required is less and less. A couple generations ago it was like 5 to 10 kids per woman. Then it went to 2.3. Now it's still on the decline and may even below replacement, if not for immigration.


The home construction industry effects every other industry either directly or indirectly, because it's not just the labor jobs, but also the mining and harvesting and refining jobs for raw materials, and of course transports, and then manufacturing for appliances, carpeting, etc, etc.

Hurt the housing industry and of course you hurt lumber, bricks, concrete, steel, appliances, furniture, textiles and more.

I wouldn't know the exact numbers, but I figure it has to be at LEAST a couple jobs lost on average per house or apartment you don't build per year.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The shear has picked back up in the Gulf region becuase of the Sub-tropical Jet stream streaming more north now... Its heading north. The ITCZ will be doing the same soon. The first wave tracking of the season should begin in a couple of weeks.


Ready in SW Florida for the return of moisture, and hopefully an early start to the rainy season. We are bone dry down here!
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

Oh goody more rain, I'll take it, but i'd be willing to share it with the others now that we've improved.

I was trying to send it to you last year, now I need it back!
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST April 9 2012
=====================================

Tropical Depression Near Midway Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 17.7N 176.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 18 knots.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
The shear has picked back up in the Gulf region becuase of the Sub-tropical Jet stream streaming more north now... Its heading north. The ITCZ will be doing the same soon. The first wave tracking of the season should begin in a couple of weeks.

Shear will probably remain above average across much of the basin this year due to the strong subtropical ridge. This enhances the TUTT and ultimately increases wind shear. The #1 reason many storms during the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season died out, especially in the Central and Eastern Atlantic, was due to the strong TUTT. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on how you look at it), the TUTT should not be as strong this season.
1030. hydrus
looks farther south then the last run.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Indeed,for sure the EPAC will be much more active than in the past two seasons.

The feeling is mutual... to me. I don't think the EPAC will be amped like it normally would be with an incoming El Nino... The WPAC will pick up the EPAC's slack I believe though...

WPAC prediction:
29 Storms (average 31)

EPAC Prediction:
15 Named Storms (average 16)

Atlantic Prediction:
13 Named Storms (Active period: average 14)
Nice weather in Tallahasee, currently looking around florida state, should be back in GA tomorrow.
Back to school.... ughh.
why cant i just study math, science, and weather.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shear will probably remain above average across much of the basin this year due to the strong subtropical ridge. This enhances the TUTT and ultimately increases wind shear. The #1 reason many storms during the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season died out, especially in the Central and Eastern Atlantic, was due to the strong TUTT. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on how you look at it), the TUTT should not be as strong this season.

The truth to the fact is..
We won't be looking out east for many "promising" storms like 2007, we will most likely pull one or two storms out of the deep tropics this year, those who will likely be peak of the season, tropical storms. The other predicted 11 i have are mischeavious storms that impact Florida and the south east in the early portion of the season, then Texas and Louisiana in the Later, as well as Central America.
Quoting PlazaRed:
Noting:-1012. RTSplayer,
Off subject of weather but!!
Thank you for your comment, here's a bit of reality:-
I am amongst other things a highly experienced textile, woven fabric, designer, on our machines designed in 1860 I can weave 20, 6 foot long scarves an hour, a modern loom can weave about 80 an hour. Woven fabric rates vary from 4 to 10 yards an hour on the 1860 looms and up to 40 yards an hour on modern looms.
The problem facing manufacturers is not production but how to sell the product, if people don't earn or have the cash they don't buy products as they are preoccupied with basic survival, this is what is now happening in Greece and to a lesser extent in the rest of Europe.
I also work in building construction. Recently we built a house from bricks that were collected from a building rubble dump as the client hadn't the cash to buy new bricks, we cleaned them up and reused them, we even collected steel reinforcing bars from a demolition site.Time has become unimportant, its the basic availability of work that counts now.
This is not the 3rd world but we are using their techniques.


Everything will come crashing down and when it does it's gonna happen fast, it's only TIME now, we wait on
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Nice weather in Tallahasee, currently looking around florida state, should be back in GA tomorrow.
Back to school.... ughh.
why cant i just study math, science, and weather.

My thoughts, Exactly...
1036. hydrus
Quoting RitaEvac:


Everything will come crashing down and when it does it's gonna happen fast, it's only TIME now, we wait on
Do you think that there is a chance our country will get through this economic mess and recover.?
Quoting HurricaneDean07:

The truth to the fact is..
We won't be looking out east for many "promising" storms like 2007, we will most likely pull one or two storms out of the deep tropics this year, those who will likely be peak of the season, tropical storms. The other predicted 11 i have are mischeavious storms that impact Florida and the south east in the early portion of the season, then Texas and Louisiana in the Later, as well as Central America.

I agree.

2002 seems like a good analogue for this year.

Quoting RTSplayer:>The housing market collapsed for several reasons, main three are:

1, they were over priced to begin with.

2, People buying bigger than was reasonable.

3, Trend of smaller families over the past 3 generations means that the number of new homes required is less and less


Reasons one and two were largely due to a failure of adequate regulation to keep lenders under control.

A system developed in which mortgage brokers received payment for simply getting loans in place and primary lenders were able to bundle large numbers of mortgages together and sell them to investors removed the natural controls of failure from much of the system.

Back in the olden days you got your mortgage from a bank in your neighborhood. The back checked you out and checked out the property you wanted to buy. If you quit paying the bank was going to be stuck with a bad loan. That changed. The name of the game was "make the loan and move on".

I've owned a number of investment properties over the years. I know the routine when it comes to taking out a new loan. About a year before the housing market crashed I decided that it was time to move equity from a property in a not great neighborhood and in a market that was rapidly inflating to a better neighborhood and less volatile area.

I went to the mortgage broker's office with all the usual paperwork - last three year's tax returns, financial statements, bank records, etc. The broker wasn't interested in looking at them, didn't want to keep a copy.

Not having dealt with this company before I expected that someone higher up in the organization would contact me for the supporting documents.

Didn't happen. They gave me the loan without even confirming that I had a bank account.

That sort of stuff happened a lot. People got all excited about getting in to the housing market and normal screening procedures which should have kept them from getting in too deep were gone.

More and more people bought. They paid higher and higher prices. Bubble inflated. Bubble burst.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:


The CPC must be expecting a hurricane for the Gulf or something... No relief for me though...



Wait. What?

I haven't seen a green that dark since... well, I found the CPC site (last summer.)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I agree.

2002 seems like a good analogue for this year.



Agree that is a good analog with a handfull of CV systems and more homegrowns.
Quoting hydrus:
Do you think that there is a chance our country will get through this economic mess and recover.?


Only the ones living within their means and got money. The others wont. Some rich will be fine, because they know how to deal money, others don't have a chance. This is all going to come down no matter what experts, wall street, UN, any governments say. There is gonna be a economic war at some point soon. Everything will crash and burn there is no getting outta of this. System is rigged right now, and only can be rigged for so long till you run outta rigged ideas.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I agree.

2002 seems like a good analogue for this year.



Even tho I was four, I distinctly remember 2002 as a pretty nasty year.... I set on the porch and watched trees fall, I guess that was the year I got hooked and have been ever since.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Only the ones living within their means and got money. The others wont. Some rich will be fine, because they know how to deal money, others don't have a chance. This is all going to come down no matter what experts, wall street, UN, any governments say. There is gonna be a economic war at some point soon. Everything will crash and burn there is no getting outta of this. System is rigged right now, and only can be rigged for so long till you run outta rigged ideas.


DOOMSDAY PREPPERS!!!!
1044. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Shear will probably remain above average across much of the basin this year due to the strong subtropical ridge. This enhances the TUTT and ultimately increases wind shear. The #1 reason many storms during the 2007 Atlantic hurricane season died out, especially in the Central and Eastern Atlantic, was due to the strong TUTT. Fortunately (or unfortunately depending on how you look at it), the TUTT should not be as strong this season.


I can't be certain, but I don't think strong subtropical ridging strengthens the TUTT. That would tend to raise heights aloft. Predicting the strength of the TUTT is also a very difficult endeavor.
Quoting Levi32:


I can't be certain, but I don't think strong subtropical ridging strengthens the TUTT. That would tend to raise heights aloft.


Wait explain how it wouldn't...
Imma bit slow:)
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0477
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0548 PM CDT SUN APR 08 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...SE TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 082248Z - 090045Z

AN ISOLATED THREAT FOR HAIL AND STRONG WINDS WILL EXIST ACROSS SE TX
THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...ISOLATED/BRIEF NATURE OF THE THREAT
PRECLUDES THE ISSUANCE OF A WW.

ONGOING THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS N-CNTRL/CNTRL TX IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS. LATEST HRRR/RUC SOUNDINGS AND SFC
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS INDICATES SBCAPE AOA 1000 J/KG AND EFFECTIVE
SHEAR AROUND 30 KTS AHEAD OF THE LINE OF STORMS. THE STRONGEST
STORMS ARE LOCATED IN AND AROUND ANDERSON COUNTY WHERE SURFACE
ANALYSIS INDICATES AN INTERSECTION OF A SWD PROGRESSING COLD FRONT
ASSOCIATED WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER OK AND A STATIONARY BOUNDARY
RESULTANT FROM YESTERDAYS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS W TX. AS A
RESULT...STRONGEST STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THIS
INTERSECTION WHICH WILL PROGRESS SLOWLY SEWD OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO BE LARGE
HAIL ALTHOUGH SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.

..MOSIER.. 04/08/2012
Quoting weatherh98:


We don't need to evolve... When you are the number 1 it isn't necessary.


Actually we are still evolving but instead of natural pressures for survival we are evolving by social and economical pressures.
1048. Levi32
Quoting weatherh98:


Wait explain how it wouldn't...
Imma bit slow:)


I have only read limited research on the TUTT, but considering that it is a trough aloft (low geopotential heights) with a core of cold air at ~300mb, strong subtropical ridging would tend to weaken that cold pocket and raise the geopotential heights, thus weakening the trough.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I agree.

2002 seems like a good analogue for this year.



Honestly, I don't know if that's sufficient, we'll see.

I'm actually more concerned about early season pop-up storms in the A to C range, in the Gulf, western Caribbean, and Bahamas, you know, June or July, before any alleged El Nino gets going, if it even happens.

Due to the SST situation, the early season Audrey style western or central Gulf pop-up, or perhaps extreme western Caribbean south of the Yucatan channel, is probably the most threatening scenario, since it may have an opportunity before any El Nino.

If the El Nino happens, it should kill the second half of the Cape Verde season, I think, at least as far as U.S. landfalls (see 2009). June, July, and even August could potentially be unaffected by El Nino, and will probably be experiencing neutral conditions.

Named storms: 14-15
Hurricanes: 7
Majors: 3-4

Operating under the assumption that the first 40% to 50% of the season will be neutral.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Honestly, I don't know if that's sufficient, we'll see.

I'm actually more concerned about early season pop-up storms in the A to C range, in the Gulf, western Caribbean, and Bahamas, you know, June or July, before any alleged El Nino gets going, if it even happens.

Due to the SST situation, the early season Audrey style western or central Gulf pop-up, or perhaps extreme western Caribbean south of the Yucatan channel, is probably the most threatening scenario, since it may have an opportunity before any El Nino.

If the El Nino happens, it should kill the second half of the Cape Verde season, I think, at least as far as U.S. landfalls (see 2009). June, July, and even August could potentially be unaffected by El Nino, and will probably be experiencing neutral conditions.

I agree... This will be a front-end loaded season... Things should pretty much shut off at the end of September
1051. Levi32
Quoting Levi32:


I have only read limited research on the TUTT, but considering that it is a trough aloft (low geopotential heights) with a core of cold air at ~300mb, strong subtropical ridging would tend to weaken that cold pocket and raise the geopotential heights, thus weakening the trough.


Then again, it is possible that since the TUTT exists at such a high altitude (300mb-200mb), that most of the compressional warming from the subtropical ridge exists below that level, and the suppression of rising air within the ridge allows radiational cooling to maintain the TUTT above the ridge (which would be capped underneath, below 300mb).

I'm honestly not sure, as answers to specific questions on the TUTT like this seem to be hard to find, at least for me. Now that I think about it, TA13 could be right.
Quoting Levi32:


I have only read limited research on the TUTT, but considering that it is a trough aloft (low geopotential heights) with a core of cold air at ~300mb, strong subtropical ridging would tend to weaken that cold pocket and raise the geopotential heights, thus weakening the trough.


Oh thank you,

I was thinking though, and the way that a ridge rotates, maybe he is saying that it would strengthen the winds on the northern side of the TUTT, i don't know, I'm still wrapping my head around it.
1053. Levi32
Quoting weatherh98:


Oh thank you,

I was thinking though, and the way that a ridge rotates, maybe he is saying that it would strengthen the winds on the northern side of the TUTT, i don't know, I'm still wrapping my head around it.


Well the TUTT ordinarily extends from the Caribbean up through the northeast Atlantic, directly through the subtropical belt, so it actually exists directly above the subtropical ridge.
1054. LargoFl
On a global warming topic, IF gasoline goes to $6.oo a gallon as donald trump and others are predicting, most U.S workers would tend to stop driving to work IF that is possible, I knoq some work many many miles from home BUT, if workers stopped driving, would the impact of the dirty air pollution now NOT being produced and sent into the atmosphere, delay or even Lessen...global warming? assuming in Other countries the impact of prices would sky rocket as well..i KNOW..6.00 a gallon may already be in some parts of europe..whew...
Quoting Levi32:


Well the TUTT ordinarily extends from the Caribbean up through the northeast Atlantic, directly through the subtropical belt, so it actually exists directly above the subtropical ridge.


I just looked it up, and TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling.

Quoting weatherh98:


I just looked it up, and TUTTs are different than mid-latitude troughs in that they are maintained by subsidence warming near the tropopause which balances radiational cooling.



So I think that makes you correct
Quoting BobWallace:


Reasons one and two were largely due to a failure of adequate regulation to keep lenders under control.

A system developed in which mortgage brokers received payment for simply getting loans in place and primary lenders were able to bundle large numbers of mortgages together and sell them to investors removed the natural controls of failure from much of the system.

Back in the olden days you got your mortgage from a bank in your neighborhood. The back checked you out and checked out the property you wanted to buy. If you quit paying the bank was going to be stuck with a bad loan. That changed. The name of the game was "make the loan and move on".

I've owned a number of investment properties over the years. I know the routine when it comes to taking out a new loan. About a year before the housing market crashed I decided that it was time to move equity from a property in a not great neighborhood and in a market that was rapidly inflating to a better neighborhood and less volatile area.

I went to the mortgage broker's office with all the usual paperwork - last three year's tax returns, financial statements, bank records, etc. The broker wasn't interested in looking at them, didn't want to keep a copy.

Not having dealt with this company before I expected that someone higher up in the organization would contact me for the supporting documents.

Didn't happen. They gave me the loan without even confirming that I had a bank account.

That sort of stuff happened a lot. People got all excited about getting in to the housing market and normal screening procedures which should have kept them from getting in too deep were gone.

More and more people bought. They paid higher and higher prices. Bubble inflated. Bubble burst.



In addition, the rapidly rising house prices made loaning to less than credible recipients profitable. If they could pay their loans, great. If they couldn't, the bank would get the property back and could sell it at a higher price. It was a win-win situation, even with no-doc loans. The typical checks were thrown to the winds in order to achieve greater and greater profits.

History doesn't repeat itself but it sure does rhyme. ~Samuel Clemens
Quoting LargoFl:
On a global warming topic, IF gasoline goes to $6.oo a gallon as donald trump and others are predicting, most U.S workers would tend to stop driving to work IF that is possible, I knoq some work many many miles from home BUT, if workers stopped driving, would the impact of the dirty air pollution now NOT being produced and sent into the atmosphere, delay or even Lessen...global warming? assuming in Other countries the impact of prices would sky rocket as well..i KNOW..6.00 a gallon may already be in some parts of europe..whew...


I've already tapered off my driving, 3.87-4.05 here in Houston gives me plenty of reason to take the bus and train. I can take the heat so I don't have a problem with sitting in a bus shelter for 10 minutes waiting. Besides, I can catch up on my reading.
1059. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Has anybody ever come across a problem with Google Chrome where after you close it, go do something else, and then pull it back up, it won't load?


I've been telling you that for years. Had nothing but trouble when I put up chrome. Sure, great on graphics and website, but I had to remove it.
1060. JNCali
Quoting hydrus:
Do you think that there is a chance our country will get through this economic mess and recover.?

We may think its already bad but its not even close to where its headed.. You sow what you reap and the corporate entities that are running the world have been increasingly greedy for too many decades and the chickens are starting to come home to roost. And don't wait for the evening news to tell you when its time to stay indoors and lock your doors! ~imho
1061. Patrap
Akio Matsumura talks about nuclear power plants, spent fuel pools, and the trouble with Reactor 4 at Fukushima.

Quoting LargoFl:
On a global warming topic, IF gasoline goes to $6.oo a gallon as donald trump and others are predicting, most U.S workers would tend to stop driving to work IF that is possible, I knoq some work many many miles from home BUT, if workers stopped driving, would the impact of the dirty air pollution now NOT being produced and sent into the atmosphere, delay or even Lessen...global warming? assuming in Other countries the impact of prices would sky rocket as well..i KNOW..6.00 a gallon may already be in some parts of europe..whew...


The price is actually higher than that in some area of Europe, but that is due to the fact that fuel is a heavily taxed commodity.

Higher gas prices are inevitable. Demand is outstripping supply and it will only get worse as time goes on. Any politician promising lower gas prices or "$2.00" gas prices is for all intents and purposes lying through their teeth.

If prices get high enough there will be an impact on global warming, but it wouldn't be as much as you might think and it may take several decades for prices to get high enough to do that. Even without cars, a lot of emissions are generated by power generation and industrial processes. Gasoline isn't the only combustible fuel for cars either. Natural gas and (if prices get high enough) coal liquification are also fuels that can be used. So higher prices MIGHT eventually slow the emissions rate, but by that time we will already be well on the way up the higher emissions scenarios.

If battery tech advances enough we may be able to centralize emissions to power generation facilities, thus making sequestration a more plausible solution. But we still have a ways to go before we get to that point.
Regarding the seasonal activity, Dr. Masters noted that 65% of storms that develop usually develop from the MDR, and the MDR is featuring below average SST's this year. While this is similar to 2009, 2009 however didn't have the abundance of warmth we had in the western Atlantic. The warmth in the western Atlantic is closer to what we saw last year and in 2010, with above average SST's. Also, if I recall shear and vertical instability is running below and above average respectively in the western Atlantic.


April 7th, 2012.


April 8th, 2012.



In short, I believe the CV season will be similar to 2009, and we probably won't see a CV hurricane until mid to late August which is about average, and we probably won't see much in the way of hurricanes in the MDR. However, unlike 2009 and 2006 with the amount of warmth in the western Atlantic, a lot of the energy will be better focused there, and we will have much more in the way of home grown development. So, in short it won't be as active, no where near as active as the last two years, but I think it will end up with a solid 11-12 named, with 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. Two majors would be CV hurricanes.
Quoting weatherh98:


DOOMSDAY PREPPERS!!!!


Nice joke, but that's really not what this is about.

This is about a fundamental transition in the very nature of human civilization, perhaps unlike anything in history since maybe farming, or domestication of animals or writing, or maybe currency itself.

People just haven't realized the consequences and applications of computers, internet, and even nano-tech just yet, but they are starting to. We've only just scratched the surface.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The price is actually higher than that in some area of Europe, but that is due to the fact that fuel is a heavily taxed commodity.

Higher gas prices are inevitable. Demand is outstripping supply and it will only get worse as time goes on. Any politician promising lower gas prices or "$2.00" gas prices is for all intents and purposes lying through their teeth.

If prices get high enough there will be an impact on global warming, but it wouldn't be as much as you might think and it may take several decades for prices to get high enough to do that. Even without cars, a lot of emissions are generated by power generation and industrial processes. Gasoline isn't the only combustible fuel for cars either. Natural gas and (if prices get high enough) coal liquification are also fuels that can be used. So higher prices MIGHT eventually slow the emissions rate, but by that time we will already be well on the way up the higher emissions scenarios.

If battery tech advances enough we may be able to centralize emissions to power generation facilities, thus making sequestration a more plausible solution. But we still have a ways to go before we get to that point.


Obama recently made a deal with the Saudi's to cut gas prices now to get re-elected and when ever the election I over, the prices will shoot up!

This is rediculous!!
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Regarding the seasonal activity, Dr. Masters noted that 65% of storms that develop usually develop from the MDR, and the MDR is featuring below average SST's this year. While this is similar to 2009, 2009 however didn't have the abundance of warmth we had in the western Atlantic. The warmth in the western Atlantic is closer to what we saw last year and in 2010, with above average SST's. Also, if I recall shear and vertical instability is running below and above average respectively in the western Atlantic.


April 7th, 2012.


April 8th, 2012.



In short, I believe the CV season will be similar to 2009, and we probably won't see a CV hurricane until mid to late August which is about average, and we probably won't see much in the way of hurricanes in the MDR. However, unlike 2009 and 2006 with the amount of warmth in the western Atlantic, a lot of the energy will be better focused there, and we will have much more in the way of home grown development. So, in short it won't be as active, no where near as active as the last two years, but I think it will end up with a solid 11-12 named, with 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. Two majors would be CV hurricanes.

To completely honest, I'd be surprised if we got a major hurricane out of the Eastern Atlantic. My main concern is home grown systems that may find favorable conditions to spin up rapidly, particularly in the northwest Caribbean Sea (Rina?) and Gulf of Mexico (Humberto?). We'll have to see how wind shear, sea surface temperatures, and SAL especially look in June.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Regarding the seasonal activity, Dr. Masters noted that 65% of storms that develop usually develop from the MDR, and the MDR is featuring below average SST's this year. While this is similar to 2009, 2009 however didn't have the abundance of warmth we had in the western Atlantic. The warmth in the western Atlantic is closer to what we saw last year and in 2010, with above average SST's. Also, if I recall shear and vertical instability is running below and above average respectively in the western Atlantic.


April 7th, 2012.


April 8th, 2012.



In short, I believe the CV season will be similar to 2009, and we probably won't see a CV hurricane until mid to late August which is about average, and we probably won't see much in the way of hurricanes in the MDR. However, unlike 2009 and 2006 with the amount of warmth in the western Atlantic, a lot of the energy will be better focused there, and we will have much more in the way of home grown development. So, in short it won't be as active, no where near as active as the last two years, but I think it will end up with a solid 11-12 named, with 7 hurricanes, and 3 majors. Two majors would be CV hurricanes.


Do you think 2002 may be a good analog for what could occur in 2012?

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

To completely honest, I'd be surprised if we got a major hurricane out of the Eastern Atlantic. My main concern is home grown systems that may find favorable conditions to spin up rapidly, particularly in the northwest Caribbean Sea (Rina?) and Gulf of Mexico (Humberto?). We'll have to see how wind shear, sea surface temperatures, and SAL especially look in June.


Hey can you review Levi and my conversation, we need clarification!!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you think 2002 may be a good analog for what could occur in 2012?



Yea we decided that last page :)
1070. yqt1001
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

To completely honest, I'd be surprised if we got a major hurricane out of the Eastern Atlantic.


We'll get a CV major. It's almost guaranteed. Even 2009 had a CV major that broke a record (which was broken again by Julia in 2010 :P )
Hey Levi, are you still around?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hey Levi, are you still around?


Nah he stopped replying a while back.
Quoting weatherh98:


Nah he stopped replying a while back.

Well, I was thinking, and I could be completely wrong, but a TUTT is maintained by subsidence from the subtropical ridge, correct? Well then, if the subtropical ridge is stronger, does that not imply stronger subsidence, and a stronger TUTT?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Do you think 2002 may be a good analog for what could occur in 2012?



Yes, I think it's among our best. I'm not sure why CSU used 2009 as an analog year but I'm not really seeing it, other than it's a neutral year moving into a El Nino.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, I was thinking, and I could be completely wrong, but a TUTT is maintained by subsidence from the subtropical ridge, correct? Well then, if the subtropical ridge is stronger, does that not imply stronger subsidence, and a stronger TUTT?


Not necessarily, because the stronger the ridge the more sinking air which would mean more subsidence to overcome the cooler air. And if there isn't enough subsidence then you have no TUTT, I think that would be right?!
Quoting weatherh98:


Obama recently made a deal with the Saudi's to cut gas prices now to get re-elected and when ever the election I over, the prices will shoot up!

This is rediculous!!


In 2008, it shot way up to $4 a gallon but then fell like a rock by summer. Believe it or not, it only shot up just over a dollar from the time he got elected to late 2010. Not bad for two years. If you noticed just before the last presidential election, gas went down to around $1.80 a gallon (with a brief spike before it hit that point courtesy of gouging from Ike).
1077. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Hey Levi, are you still around?


I'm still here for a few.
Quoting caneswatch:


In 2008, it shot way up to $4 a gallon but then falls like a rock by summer. Believe it or not, it only shot up just over a dollar from the time he got elected to late 2010. Not bad for two years. If you noticed just before the last presidential election, gas went down to around $1.80 a gallon (with a brief spike before it hit that point courtesy of gouging from Ike).


This was obamas doing though because the Saudis want him reelected
1079. Levi32
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Well, I was thinking, and I could be completely wrong, but a TUTT is maintained by subsidence from the subtropical ridge, correct? Well then, if the subtropical ridge is stronger, does that not imply stronger subsidence, and a stronger TUTT?


No, it is partially maintained by subsidence warming at the tropopause, not within the subtropical ridge, which is found lower down. The TUTT lies above the subtropical ridge, and thus is not directly affected by subsidence due to that ridge. However, as I said before, it may be possible that the suppression of convection due to a stronger subtropical ridge could allow the TUTT to strengthen because the cold pocket would not be warmed by the intrusion of thunderstorms, and assuming most of the compressional warming is capped below the 300mb level, that could make sense.
My numbers: 13-5-3, with 9-3-1 being homegrown non Cape Verde systems
1081. hydrus
Quoting weatherh98:


Obama recently made a deal with the Saudi's to cut gas prices now to get re-elected and when ever the election I over, the prices will shoot up!

This is rediculous!!
I do not think that president Obama is cutting a deal with the Saudi,s to get re-elected. Saudi Arabia is sitting on approximately 50 trillion dollars worth of oil. The world is seeking alternatives other than oil so they can be independent of it. Some countries are well on there way to doing just that, and the Saudi,s do not want to get stuck with oil that wont sell later on. Saudi Arabia is spending large amounts of money on alternative energy as well, fusion, solar and wind are big on there list. It is worthy to note that Saudi Arabia has the second highest amount of proven oil reserves in the world at 18%. Venezuela has the most at 20% of the global reserve. Canada ranks third.Proven Oil Reserves, as published by the CIA Factbook, 2009
Quoting caneswatch:


In 2008, it shot way up to $4 a gallon but then falls like a rock by summer. Believe it or not, it only shot up just over a dollar from the time he got elected to late 2010. Not bad for two years. If you noticed just before the last presidential election, gas went down to around $1.80 a gallon (with a brief spike before it hit that point courtesy of gouging from Ike).


The Republican owned oil companies drove up the prices in an attempt to make the democratic party look bad.

It's the same old crap every election cycle. Whoever loses does whatever they can, from whatever industry they control, to hurt the winners, in some cases even if they hurt themselves in the process.
Quoting Levi32:


No, it is partially maintained by subsidence warming at the tropopause, not within the subtropical ridge, which is found lower down. The TUTT lies above the subtropical ridge, and thus is not directly affected by subsidence due to that ridge. However, as I said before, it may be possible that the suppression of convection due to a stronger subtropical ridge could allow the TUTT to strengthen because the cold pocket would not be warmed by the intrusion of thunderstorms, and assuming most of the compressional warming is capped below the 300mb level, that could make sense.


That does make sense, no latent heat would be released of that were the case.... And it could remain colder....
Quoting RTSplayer:


The Republican owned oil companies drove up the prices in an attempt to make the democratic party look bad.

It's the same old crap every election cycle. Whoever loses does whatever they can, from whatever industry they control, to hurt the winners, in some cases even if they hurt themselves in the process.


But this is to put up a smoke screen before the election.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yes, I think it's among our best. I'm not sure why CSU used 2009 as an analog year but I'm not really seeing it, other than it's a neutral year moving into a El Nino.
the boys at CSU are counting on a full el nino for the season but it may be mid sept before we start to get to that point then again maybe the boys at CSU see something the rest don't either way we have 54 days to see how the ninos will play out at the start

as always
wait watch see
Hydrus:

If you count shale oil and two key off-shore regions by Florida and California, the U.S. supposedly has some absolutely obscene amounts of reserves in excess of a trillion barrels, with about 600 Billion of it being shale oil.


On the senate floor a couple years ago, one of the Republican representatives, I forget which, actually made the claim that there was so much oil that you'd run out of Oxygen to burn before you ran out of the oil, which may have been hyperbole, but it makes the point that running out of oil isn't actually the real problem.


There's also supposedly enough Coal still in known deposits to last for several hundred years.


So the problem isn't even theoretically in the supply part.

The problem is burning all this stuff would eventually destroy all life.
Looking through the blog posts of April, 2011, you can practically copy and paste them for the predictions of the 2012 season. High SST’s, homegrown storms, watch out Gulf of Mexico, etc.
Be back later...Going to the store for some Skittles and an Amazon Iced Tea.
Quoting yqt1001:


We'll get a CV major. It's almost guaranteed. Even 2009 had a CV major that broke a record (which was broken again by Julia in 2010 :P )


Well, past decade you can almost count on the "I" storm breaking some sort of record, or at least making a decent run at it. I don't know why, but it just happens.

they usually insanely powerful, or gigantic, or ridiculously long lived, or some combination of that, or form in weird locations, etc.

Isidore 1990 - lowest lattitude
Irene 1999 - fastest speed, Diameter
Isaac 2000 - cat 4
Iris 2001 - Cat 4, 7mi eye
Isidore 2002 - major
Isabelle 2003 - Intensity, duration, size
Ivan - Intensity, formation location
Irene 2005 - earliest formation
Ike - Size, intensity
Igor - Size
Irene 2011 - size, inland flooding

ok, 2006, 2007, and 2009 were sort of duds, but...

So with only 3 exceptions, every "I" since 1999 has been a major, and several of them broke some sort of record...
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Be back later...Going to the store for some Skittles and an Amazon Iced Tea.


Don't forget your hoodie!
Maybe a surprise severe weather event tomorrow?

The SOI continues to crash and now is well inside negative status.

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The SOI continues to crash and now is well inside negative status.



What's soi
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Don't forget your hoodie!

You're not right :P
A cloud of fear: Greenpeace releases infrared image of giant 'explosive' gas spewing from Elgin rig

Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-212 5471/Total-gas-leak-Greenpeace-release-infra-red-i mage-explosive-gas-spewing-Elgin-rig.html#ixzz1rV8 CHscJ


Greenpeace says the bright pink spots visible in the image show the natural - and non-toxic - hydrogen gases being emitted by the platform.

Meanwhile, the darker purple areas depict the dangerous portion of the gas cloud - which consists mainly of methane.

The image, taken from outside the security distance of three nautical miles, uses light tones to show heat and dark tones to indicate cold.

Quoting weatherh98:


What's soi

It's the measure of air pressure in the west/east Pacific. A prolonged period of positive SOI values are typically indicative of La Niña while a prolonged period of negative SOI values typically are indicative of an El Niño.

Last month the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter was a storm chaser (kind of like Helen Hunt in "Twister"!) and it paid off with some great footage.

Weather is otherwise sort of boring on Mars there aren't tornadoes or thunderstorms since it's a dry planet so dust devils are the main show. They're even bigger on Mars than Earth. The camera captured an aerial shot of the dust devil kicking up red dirt 12 miles above the surface of the planet, which is pretty big even in Martian terms.

"It really is the size of it that is the unique thing," Jet Propulsion Laboratory scientist Ashwin Vasavada told the Los Angeles Times.

The Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter was able to catch a shot of the dust devil because it has such a huge telescope, like a spy camera, that can zoom in on details from the surface as small as 11.8 inches across.

(Editors note: If it wasn't obvious before, yes, the animation is a recreation of what happened on the surface, but we'll let you know when James Cameron gets live 3D footage from the surface of the planet himself. In the meantime, this article explains how tornadoes are different than dust devils and why they're so tall and spindly on Mars.)
Link

Separate Link to the actual article issued by NASA
1098. ncstorm
RIP Travon Martin!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

You're not right :P


I'm the nerdiest white guy you can find, and i walked into a 7-11 wearing a hoodie and bought an iced tea and skittles while wearing sunglasses and the cashier didn't even bat an eye. Racial stereotyping is just so messed up, that it shouldn't be a joking matter...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's the measure of air pressure in the west/east Pacific. A prolonged period of positive SOI values are typically indicative of La Niña while a prolonged period of negative SOI values typically are indicative of an El Niño.


Thank ya

Trying to learn it now before the season starts so I'm not as lost as last uear
1101. geepy86
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Be back later...Going to the store for some Skittles and an Amazon Iced Tea.

Bet you don't come back.
1102. Patrap
Uploaded by VideoFromSpace on Apr 5, 2012

NASA's Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter captured imagery of a Red Planet dust devil on March 14, 2012. Different from a tornado, this phenomena sometimes occurs on clear days when the heated surface interacts with pockets of cool air above it.

Quoting WxGeekVA:


I'm the nerdiest white guy you can find, and i walked into a 7-11 wearing a hoodie and bought an iced tea and skittles while wearing sunglasses and the cashier didn't even bat an eye. Racial stereotyping is just so messed up, that it shouldn't be a joking matter...


What is strange is that none of Zimmeran lawyers have met him face-to-face. Just phone calls.
I don't think a strong El nino will form like in the years 06 and 09.A weak one at best which is why I'm thinking of a little bit in the way of higher numbers..around 12-14.But no matter if it's a year where we have a abundant name of storms as it only takes one.
hey guys just wanting to show you guys this

forecast now

forecast sametime last year

umm see something simmilar
Head Researcher: Boulder, Colorado a “hot spot” for Fukushima fallout — None of their other US or Canadian samples came close to Boulder’s contamination, except Portland which was even higher
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just wanting to show you guys this

forecast now

forecast sametime last year

umm see something simmilar

The difference here is that we're almost at 0 °C and the SOI continues to fall.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just wanting to show you guys this

forecast now

forecast sametime last year

umm see something simmilar


That's straight creepy
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The difference here is that we're almost at 0 °C and the SOI continues to fall.
It's still creepy how similar it is, the change has slowed down though which means it may not be a very strong one...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys just wanting to show you guys this

forecast now

forecast sametime last year

umm see something simmilar


Another reason why 2009 isn't a good analog year, this time 2009 it was predicted to be a weak El Nino, this year it's predicted to be very warm neutral before going back.
We have analyzed the most recent data and our high level seasonal forecast is 7-2-1.
Quoting RTSplayer:


The Republican owned oil companies drove up the prices in an attempt to make the democratic party look bad.

It's the same old crap every election cycle. Whoever loses does whatever they can, from whatever industry they control, to hurt the winners, in some cases even if they hurt themselves in the process.


Exactly, because Ike hit a oil-rich, strongly Republican state. But everyone realized what happened and the prices went back down.
Quoting weatherh98:


This was obamas doing though because the Saudis want him reelected


Where does this come from?
Quoting weatherh98:
It's still creepy how similar it is, the change has slowed down though which means it may not be a very strong one...

No, both the SOI and Sea Surface Temperatures have fallen, and risen, respectively, recently.
1115. hydrus
Quoting weatherh98:
It's still creepy how similar it is, the change has slowed down though which means it may not be a very strong one...
It may not be strong, but it is a good bet that El-Nino will show itself. Very unusual to have a La-Nina stick around any longer then it already has.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, both the SOI and Sea Surface Temperatures have fallen, and risen, respectively, recently.

Ik but the pase of change is less drastic...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Another reason why 2009 isn't a good analog year, this time 2009 it was predicted to be a weak El Nino, this year it's predicted to be very warm neutral before going back.

I used to think it would be hard to reach El Niño as well, but with the recent jump to -0.2 °C, I think a weak El Niño is definitely within the realms of possibility by July/August.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

No, both the SOI and Sea Surface Temperatures have fallen, and risen, respectively, more drastically recently.
1119. hydrus
Quoting FrankZapper:
We have analyzed the most recent data and our high level seasonal forecast is 7-2-1.
That would be a slow season indeed...Last one like that was in 92...Still a bad year for a lot of people. P,S. 94 ..my bad..
Quoting caneswatch:


Where does this come from?


My mom heard it on rush radio...
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Another reason why 2009 isn't a good analog year, this time 2009 it was predicted to be a weak El Nino, this year it's predicted to be very warm neutral before going back.

hey cybrteddy that one is for 2011 not 09
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

hey cybrteddy that one is for 2011 not 09


I'm aware.
Quoting weatherh98:


My mom heard it on rush radio...


An obviously hugely biased person who just hates the Democratic party altogether and tries to smear everything they do. You obviously should listen to non-biased sources.
Quoting hydrus:
It may not be strong, but it is a good bet that El-Nino will show itself. Very unusual to have a La-Nina stick around any longer then it already has.

well don't know about El nino but maybe nutral
So sad to hear Mike Wallace passed away.
WE NEED RAIN!!!.I Feel like I live in Cali right now with all the gusty winds and bone dry ground...
Quoting caneswatch:


An obviously hugely biased person who just hates the Democratic party altogether and tries to smear everything they do. You obviously should listen to non-biased sources.


I suppose u watch CNN and msnbc
National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Models: NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFSv1), NCEP coupled forecast system model 2 (CFSv2), ECHAMA, ECHAMF, GFDL, NCAR, NASA still forecasting an El Nino


Evening all. Did anybody notice this?

7.Aspen, CO set a record high temperature of 63 for Apr 08

9.Craig, CO set a record low temperature of 12 for Apr 08

Just FYI, Aspen and Craig are about 100 miles apart...
Hi canes...you are on a roll tonight!
09 same time



1132. hydrus
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well don't know about El nino but maybe nutral
It will be late in the year, but its my guess that it will be official by September or October.
Quoting weatherh98:


I suppose u watch CNN and msnbc


Just because I said what I said makes you think I watch that? I just prefer to stick with the newspaper and local TV. I don't watch all of the big network TV news stuff, it's too biased.
Quoting caneswatch:


Just because I said what I said makes you think I watch that? I just prefer to stick with the newspaper and local TV. I don't watch all of the big network TV news stuff, it's too biased.


Well don't pounce on what I listen too
Quoting caneswatch:


Just because I said what I said makes you think I watch that? I just prefer to stick with the newspaper and local TV. I don't watch all of the big network TV news stuff, it's too biased.


Funny he didn't mention Fox.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi canes...you are on a roll tonight!


Hi Geoff! I know, my weekend just keeps on going! It definitely was sad to hear of Mike Wallace's passing. I knew he was up there but didn't see it coming.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Funny he didn't mention Fox.


Fox is right wing the others are left...
I'm so ready for hurricane season...
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Models: NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFSv1), NCEP coupled forecast system model 2 (CFSv2), ECHAMA, ECHAMF, GFDL, NCAR, NASA still forecasting an El Nino




Why CFS and CFSv2 are different with their forecasts as CFS is in Neutral and CFSv2 is at El Nino by July?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm so ready for hurricane season...
Who isn't at this point.
Come out from hiding Grothar!
Quoting weatherh98:


Well don't pounce on what I listen too


Rush is just as biased as any other cable news source. Read unbiased and you'll notice a huge difference.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Funny he didn't mention Fox.


Yeah I know.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Come out from hiding Grothar!


I know he's out there!
Quoting washingtonian115:
Who isn't at this point.


I'm tired of GW talks and arguing over pointless stuff arguing over windspeed is better
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm so ready for hurricane season...


Only 53 days and counting until June 1rst.

Link
Quoting caneswatch:


Rush is just as biased as any other cable news source. Read unbiased and you'll notice a huge difference.


Nothing is unbiased now adays.. I just happen to agree with one source because of the way I am raised..
1148. geepy86
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I'm so ready for hurricane season...

I'm not
Quoting weatherh98:


Nothing is unbiased now adays.. I just happen to agree with one source because of the way I am raised..


Why not think for yourself. Take in all sourses of media.
Quoting weatherh98:


I'm tired of GW talks and arguing over pointless stuff arguing over windspeed is better
Yeah that and where will the storm be going.LOL.Just two more months.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Why CFS and CFSv2 are different with their forecasts as CFS is in Neutral and CFSv2 is at El Nino by July?


Would think the different physics packages and increased resolution in v2.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


Why not think for yourself. Take in all sourses of media.


I do, but I use morals instilled in me
Some very large hail is possible tomorrow...that seems to be a theme this Severe Weather season.



Nrt, another question,this one related to 90C. Why after crossing into the Western Pacific is still 90C and not a WPAC invest?
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION XX
3:00 AM JST April 9 2012
=====================================

Tropical Depression Near Midway Island

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression (1006 hPa) located at 17.7N 176.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west southwest at 18 knots.
I am assuming this is the CPac AOI we were watching last week?

Quoting nofailsafe:


I've already tapered off my driving, 3.87-4.05 here in Houston gives me plenty of reason to take the bus and train. I can take the heat so I don't have a problem with sitting in a bus shelter for 10 minutes waiting. Besides, I can catch up on my reading.
I've also been adjusting my departure / arrival times so that I'm in / out before / after rush hour. This cuts a bundle weekly on the amound of gas I burn. Even minimizing extra trips to the grocery store etc helps. I know walking in urban Texas is not necessarily a good choice [distance-wise], but outside of the summer it can be a practical solution in Nassau.
My blog is messed up?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME). Models: NCEP coupled forecast system model (CFSv1), NCEP coupled forecast system model 2 (CFSv2), ECHAMA, ECHAMF, GFDL, NCAR, NASA still forecasting an El Nino


the question is how long do we take to get to the full event
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Nrt, another question,this one related to 90C. Why after crossing into the Western Pacific is still 90C and not a WPAC invest?

It is according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). However, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), it is a tropical depression.

I think I prefer JTWC here.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Some very large hail is possible tomorrow...that seems to be a theme this Severe Weather season.





Where is the lift coming from
1160. Grothar
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Come out from hiding Grothar!


Grothar knows when to come out and play and when to lurk.

Quoting weatherh98:


Where is the loft coming from

The what?
1162. Grothar
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


Would think the different physics packages and increased resolution in v2.


Yes, it is always good to examine physics packages closely.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I used to think it would be hard to reach El Niño as well, but with the recent jump to -0.2 °C, I think a weak El Niño is definitely within the realms of possibility by July/August.


Infact Dr. Gray even mentions the fact that they are leaning toward the Euro as that model has been predicting this quick increase in SST's for months now across the the E-Pac. I would bet that tomorrow's update will have us in nuetral. Whether people believe it or not on here we are heading for a El-nino question becomes now how strong?
ABPW10 PGTW 081500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/081500Z-090600ZAPR2012//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 17.3N 178.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 680 NM EAST OF WAKE ISLAND. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING CONVECTION NEAR THE LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH PERIPHERAL BANDS OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. A SERIES OF SCATTEROMETRY PASSES INDICATE CENTRAL WINDS
OF 10-15 KNOTS WITH STRONGER GRADIENT INDUCED PERIPHERAL WINDS OVER
THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN QUADRANTS, APPROXIMATELY 1.5-2.0 DEGREES
REMOVED FROM THE LLCC. A 080901Z AMSU-B IMAGE DEPICTS A SMALL DEEP
CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPROXIMATELY 90 NM TO THE NORTH OF THE LLCC.
ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY SHOWS THE LLCC TO BE
NEARLY COCOONED BY A RELATIVELY DRIER AIR MASS WITH LIMITED MOIST
AIR ENTRAINMENT PROVIDED BY TRADE WIND FLOW. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY CLEARLY DEPICTS THE SUBSIDENT DRY AIRMASS THAT SURROUNDS
THE LLCC. THE MOST RECENT AMSU CROSS-SECTION (070900Z) REVEALS A
WEAK WARM CORE ANOMALY THAT IS HORIZONTALLY LARGE AND DISPLACED
HIGHER IN THE TROPOSPHERE THAN WHAT IS NORMALLY SEEN FOR A TYPICAL
WARM CORE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. THEREFORE, DUE TO THE WEAK CENTRAL
WINDS, DISPLACED CONVECTION, AND TEMPERATURE CHARACTERISTICS, THIS
DISTURBANCE IS CLASSIFIED AS A SUB-TROPICAL SYSTEM. MODEL GUIDANCE
DOES NOT SUGGEST A TRANSITION INTO A WARM CORE TROPICAL SYSTEM BUT
RATHER OPENS THE CIRCULATION INTO A WAVE OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS A CYCLONIC CIRCULATION POSITIONED
DIRECTLY OVER THE LLCC. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE LOW
THRESHOLD FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT AT 26-27 DEGREES CELSIUS.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) AS A LOW.//
NNNN

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It is according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC). However, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), it is a tropical depression.

I think I prefer JTWC here.



TS JOSE REBORN!!!

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Nrt, another question,this one related to 90C. Why after crossing into the Western Pacific is still 90C and not a WPAC invest?


They must be treating it as an "unnamed tropical depression" per National Hurricane Operations Plan:

An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Some very large hail is possible tomorrow...that seems to be a theme this Severe Weather season.





Abnormally cold air aloft. some temps at 850 milibars a few days ago were at -20C over the mid south.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


TS JOSE REBORN!!!

Awwww such a cute little storm he was.
Quoting weatherh98:


I suppose u watch CNN and msnbc
Might be better to watch more than one source before forming an opinion. It's called research.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


They must be treating it as an "unnamed tropical depression" per National Hurricane Operations Plan:

An unnamed tropical depression will also retain its number (e.g.
Tropical Depression Six-E remains Tropical Depression Six-E) if it crosses into another area of
responsibility.


Thanks for the answers.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The what?


Lift
Quoting Xyrus2000:


The price is actually higher than that in some area of Europe, but that is due to the fact that fuel is a heavily taxed commodity.

Higher gas prices are inevitable. Demand is outstripping supply and it will only get worse as time goes on. Any politician promising lower gas prices or "$2.00" gas prices is for all intents and purposes lying through their teeth.

If prices get high enough there will be an impact on global warming, but it wouldn't be as much as you might think and it may take several decades for prices to get high enough to do that. Even without cars, a lot of emissions are generated by power generation and industrial processes. Gasoline isn't the only combustible fuel for cars either. Natural gas and (if prices get high enough) coal liquification are also fuels that can be used. So higher prices MIGHT eventually slow the emissions rate, but by that time we will already be well on the way up the higher emissions scenarios.

If battery tech advances enough we may be able to centralize emissions to power generation facilities, thus making sequestration a more plausible solution. But we still have a ways to go before we get to that point.


EVs and wind turbines are great friends.

Bringing a bunch of EVs on line means that it will be more profitable to install turbines in order to charge EVs at night. And that, in turn, will mean more day/peak hour electricity on line which will allow us to burn less fossil fuels.

The average EV would need to charge 1.5 hours per night. That means that most EVs can sit, plugged in, waiting for supply peaks and then drop out when other demand requires the power.

Many EVs won't even need to charge every night. Many will be able to skip 2-3 nights is wind is scarce.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


TS JOSE REBORN!!!



Looks threatening
sea temps 30 days ago top
bottom sea temps today


1175. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Yeah that and where will the storm be going.LOL.Just two more months.


might be sooner, you never know



Tropical Storm Ana (April)
Quoting weatherh98:


Fox is right wing the others are left...
CNN is left???

I never knew. They sure come across as less biased of a source than the others mentioned. At least to an outsider, anyway.
Quoting BahaHurican:
CNN is left???

I never knew. They sure come across as less biased of a source than the others mentioned. At least to an outsider, anyway.


I'm outnumbered


It's time to go Back to weather
same as before top 30 days ago bottom now


Quoting BahaHurican:
CNN is left???

I never knew. They sure come across as less biased of a source than the others mentioned. At least to an outsider, anyway.


Yeah, CNN is the least biased of the news networks IMO. NBC and CBS are left, FOX is right, CNN is slightly left but less than the others.
Quoting BahaHurican:
CNN is left???

I never knew. They sure come across as less biased of a source than the others mentioned. At least to an outsider, anyway.


All a matter of perspective:

3rd Annual TV News Trust Poll

-Democrats trust everything- except Fox News. NBC does the best with them at +50 (67/17), followed by PBS and CNN at +49 (66/17 and 65/16 respectively), ABC at +38 (57/19), CBS at +35 (58/23), MSNBC at +33 (56/23), and even Comedy Central at +4 (36/32). Fox News comes in at -36 (25/61).

-Republicans meanwhile don't trust anything except Fox News. PBS comes the closest to breaking even among non-Fox outlets, although not very close, at -30 (26/56). It's followed by CNN at -49 (18/67), MSNBC at -51 (18/69), NBC at -52 (17/69), CBS at -54 (17/71), ABC at -56 (14/70), and Comedy Central at -59 (12/71). But Fox News comes in at a stellar 73/17.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
same as before top 30 days ago bottom now




This is one here is very impressive! What an increase in just 30 days across the C & E Pacific. Very likely we will be at 0.00 tomorrow or even +.01 as these temps have even warmed pretty good since last week.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


All a matter of perspective:

3rd Annual TV News Trust Poll

-Democrats trust everything- except Fox News. NBC does the best with them at +50 (67/17), followed by PBS and CNN at +49 (66/17 and 65/16 respectively), ABC at +38 (57/19), CBS at +35 (58/23), MSNBC at +33 (56/23), and even Comedy Central at +4 (36/32). Fox News comes in at -36 (25/61).

-Republicans meanwhile don't trust anything except Fox News. PBS comes the closest to breaking even among non-Fox outlets, although not very close, at -30 (26/56). It's followed by CNN at -49 (18/67), MSNBC at -51 (18/69), NBC at -52 (17/69), CBS at -54 (17/71), ABC at -56 (14/70), and Comedy Central at -59 (12/71). But Fox News comes in at a stellar 73/17.


Believeable
Quoting ncstorm:


might be sooner, you never know



Tropical Storm Ana (April)
I would look for the gulf to have an early storm formation this year
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Infact Dr. Gray even mentions the fact that they are leaning toward the Euro as that model has been predicting this quick increase in SST's for months now across the the E-Pac. I would bet that tomorrow's update will have us in neutral. Whether people believe it or not on here we are heading for a El-nino question becomes now how strong?
I do recall how that 2006 el nino seemed to appear out of nowhere. Caught all the forecasters off guard.
I made a blog about ENSO,so those who may be interested to comment apart from Dr Masters blog,go and visit my blog.

Link
Quoting BahaHurican:
Might be better to watch more than one source before forming an opinion. It's called research.
Or Al Roker, he's beautiful!
Quoting washingtonian115:
I would look for the gulf to have an early storm formation this year
Maybe as you remember 2010 feature Alex in june and 2011 Arlene so maybe Alberto will form also in the gulf of Mexico.
Quoting weatherh98:


I'm outnumbered


It's time to go Back to weather
No, seriously. I agree with the comments about Fox and MSNBC being biased. Their biases are pretty obvious. CNN, otoh, always seems to be at least trying to be objective, show both sides, etc. Lotta pple out here watch that for information that's relatively trustworthy / reliable. I'd never thought about them as a left-wing source.

Part of my problem, of course, is that the station I mainly watched over the years has been TWC.... lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
I do recall how that 2006 el nino seemed to appear out of nowhere. Caught all the forecasters off guard.


The odd thing is that C FL recorded the top 10 driest year on record that year (2006). I sure hope that we have a 2009 year as opposed to a 2006 as it really can't get any drier than this here in C & S FL. Typically El-Nino brings an early onset to the wet season across FL & the Bahamas but that's not always the case the next few weeks will be interesting to see if we can start getting into a wetter pattern.
Quoting kipperedherring:
Or Al Roker, he's beautiful!
Is this what they mean by non sequitur?
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


All a matter of perspective:

3rd Annual TV News Trust Poll

-Democrats trust everything- except Fox News. NBC does the best with them at 50 (67/17), followed by PBS and CNN at 49 (66/17 and 65/16 respectively), ABC at 38 (57/19), CBS at 35 (58/23), MSNBC at 33 (56/23), and even Comedy Central at 4 (36/32). Fox News comes in at -36 (25/61).

-Republicans meanwhile don't trust anything except Fox News. PBS comes the closest to breaking even among non-Fox outlets, although not very close, at -30 (26/56). It's followed by CNN at -49 (18/67), MSNBC at -51 (18/69), NBC at -52 (17/69), CBS at -54 (17/71), ABC at -56 (14/70), and Comedy Central at -59 (12/71). But Fox News comes in at a stellar 73/17.


I trust the Daily Show with Jon Stewart 100%

SARCASM FLAG: ON
No, but seriously though that isn't even news...
Quoting allancalderini:
Maybe as you remember 2010 feature Alex in june and 2011 Arlene so maybe Alberto will form also in the gulf of Mexico.
Well not only that.Shear has been below average most of the time,and instability has been high to.SSt are above average as well.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


The odd thing is that C FL recorded the 10 driest year on record that year (2006). I sure hope that we have a 2009 year as opposed to a 2006 as it really can't get any drier than this here in C & S FL. Typically El-Nino brings an early onset to the wet season across FL & the Bahamas but that's not always the case the next few weeks will be interesting to see if we can start getting into a wetter pattern.
I do know we tend to get more early season Twaves in el nino years. However, with some of the recent shifts we've been seeing, it's getting harder to predict that.
1195. yqt1001
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I trust the Daily Show with Jon Stewart 100%

SARCASM FLAG: ON
No, but seriously though that isn't even news...


I trust The Onion the most.

Well, it's the only news outlet I'm subscribed to. :P
Quoting yqt1001:


I trust The Onion the most.

Well, it's the only news outlet I'm subscribed to. :P
Looking at the Onions comment section is a big confidence boost.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I do know we tend to get more early season Twaves in el nino years. However, with some of the recent shifts we've been seeing, it's getting harder to predict that.


I know eventhough 2006 was about 8 inches below normal we still had a TS affect us early in June that year. I believe it was Alberto and it orginated in the NW Caribbean.
Quoting BahaHurican:
CNN is left???

I never knew. They sure come across as less biased of a source than the others mentioned. At least to an outsider, anyway.
There is no "left" in the US. CNN might rate slightly to the liberal side of moderate in the real world. Oboma's health-care proposals are to the right of what Richard Nixon proposed. Go figure.
Also of note El-Nino tends to feature early season storms that affect FL and the SE US in June. Many El-Nino years this has happened infact much more common than non el-nino years.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I trust the Daily Show with Jon Stewart 100%

SARCASM FLAG: ON
No, but seriously though that isn't even news...
As a libertarian I watch Russia Today for the most unbiased news. Wait why do I even have to mention my theology?
1201. yqt1001
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
As a libertarian I watch Russia Today for the most unbiased news. Wait why do I even have to mention my theology?


Your theology? :P Also, are you being serious about RT? I've just heard a lot about RT these days.

Anyways, what I actually do about controversial news: I go onto a political forum where I can get all hundreds of different views. There is a 0.001% chance of everyone agreeing on there anyways, so it's a good way to get a decent unbiased view.
BBC is still hard to beat.
Saw a segment about the Russian election on RT

They said

You can vote for
Communist party
Or
Party communist
You choose!!
Quoting yqt1001:


Your theology? :P Also, are you being serious about RT? I've just heard a lot about RT these days.

Anyways, what I actually do about controversial news: I go onto a political forum where I can get all hundreds of different views.
As far as I concerned its the same thing as religion. And yes. BBC is also great.
OH dear. The blog has devolved to political ranting under the pernicious influence of that radical blogger wx98....

Oh, wait....

EDIT: [added mere seconds later]
Just joshing w' ya, wx98....

lol
Quoting BahaHurican:
OH dear. The blog has devolved to political ranting under the pernicious influence of that radical blogger wx98....

Oh, wait....


Love a blogging brother alright good night!!!!
I just got dual monitors today and I don't think I'll ever go back to 1. Anybody else have a dual /tri setup?
Sometimes I think our dreams of unbiased news reporting are just fantasies.

But that's prolly just my cynical side.
Still full on La Nina weather in SEFL. Dog hot and dry as a bone. Excessive rains in Central Texas bring the calling card of the Nino. Could be a wacky year as I think the old gray mare just ain't what she used to be in regards to the "What Should Be". Just my opinion.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I just got dual monitors today and I don't think I'll ever go back to 1. Anybody else have a dual /tri setup?
I messed around some with one summer-before-last. It's great for storm watching. Maybe I'll do it again this August.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I just got dual monitors today and I don't think I'll ever go back to 1. Anybody else have a dual /tri setup?


No, as I never saw the need. I've considered trying it for forecasting purposes, though.
I think Levi was running a dual setup at one point also.
Did note however our little severe weather outbreak that wasn't late week. Could've been Nino knocking on the door.
Quoting BahaHurican:
I messed around with one some summer-before-last. It's great for storm watching. Maybe I'll do it again this August.
Finally I wont have 15 tabs that I will be switching back and forth from. I think I'll go tri soon. One for radar, one live stream, and one for the blog.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
BBC is still hard to beat.


i like AJE myself Al Jazeera
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i like AJE myself Al Jazeera
I got a brother follows AJE pretty steady. He thinks CNN is punk.
1217. txjac
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


i like AJE myself Al Jazeera


Like AJE myself. I go all over the place for news as sometimes I can find reports in the international newsites I cant find here in the US
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
Did note however our little severe weather outbreak that wasn't late week. Could've been Nino knocking on the door.
Twill be interesting to see what April holds severe wx wise. I find it hard to believe it'll be as busy as last year. However, it will be very interesting to see if we get more activity in FL as opposed to points north.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
As a libertarian I watch Russia Today for the most unbiased news. Wait why do I even have to mention my theology?



I'm a libertarian as well... I don't even really watch the news that much lol
1220. txjac
Quoting WxGeekVA:



I'm a libertarian as well... I don't even really watch the news that much lol


Go Ron Paul
1221. geepy86
Quoting txjac:


Go Ron Paul

lol
Quoting txjac:


Like AJE myself. I go all over the place for news as sometimes I can find reports in the international newsites I cant find here in the US
i like AJE,REUTERS,BBC and my local news CITYTV and SUN
I gotta tell u... some of what passes for news in the US [and, to be honest, in the UK and Caribbean as well] comes across a lot more as some kind of weird reality entertainment instead. The most obvious examples for me are hurricane related news reports, which can sometimes reach the heights of the ridiculous.
KOTG, some of the Canadian stuff is actually not bad...
Quoting BahaHurican:
Twill be interesting to see what April holds severe wx wise. I find it hard to believe it'll be as busy as last year. However, it will be very interesting to see if we get more activity in FL as opposed to points north.



Rather tranquil for the next week or so. The GFS is portraying a rather significant front in the 7-10 day period. A system like that would be one to watch out for leaving behind some energy in the Gulf.

Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Rather tranquil for the next week or so. The GFS is portraying a rather significant front in the 7-10 day period. A system like that would be one to watch out for leaving behind some energy in the Gulf.



Alrighty, looks like fun for me then. I do hate it when those storms roll in during the morning though, waking up to a tornado warning in a city without sirens isn't much fun.
Mark Cuban- The most patriotic thing an American can do is be filthy, filthy rich.

LOL
As for season numbers I want to lean higher than CRU. Over all ACE numbers globally have been below average with this multi year La Nina episode. So far this year, S Hem is behind. Also of interest the WPAC Ace is well behind so far for the year with only 4.12 of the normal 7. The last few years the WPAC has been depressed & the N Atlantic has had above normal Ace. WPAC doesn't look to have wolk up yet. Very possible EPAC could steal the show with the shifting ENSO but ATL could hang on to it. Looking back to '95 odds are this year that ACE would be atleast average for NATL (104). & we also see the EPAC instability beginning to fall off as the Atlantic instability begins to show sign of recovery after being depressed much of last year.

Even if we see El Nino by heart of season the atmospheric delay should delay the effects til the end of season. I half expect a warm neutral by season peak. La Nina hasn't exactly gone down in flames.

True~ ace doesn't give a number. Last year didn't have raging ace (~130) but the spin up factor was favorable so there was alot of short lived storms. Lookin at the GOM & off the east coast lately that factor is in play still..maybe a little gamely even.

I'm gonna say atleast 15 total, maybe 4 majors.


Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I just got dual monitors today and I don't think I'll ever go back to 1. Anybody else have a dual /tri setup?


I've had it set up dual during a few extremely active times. It's a real treat.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



Rather tranquil for the next week or so. The GFS is portraying a rather significant front in the 7-10 day period. A system like that would be one to watch out for leaving behind some energy in the Gulf.



Tranquil???? um, i dunno about that.

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE
DAY IN FAR WRN OK NEAR THE OK-TX STATE-LINE. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SRN KS...NW OK AND THE
FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NW TX THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.

TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FROM SW KS EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE THE NAM AND
NAMKF INCREASE MLCAPE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WRN OK SHOW STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KT
RANGE SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO
8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED LARGE
HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
SSEWD...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR WITH
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX.

...WEST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY
WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT VERY WEAK SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AND NORTHWEST
OF DEL RIO SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35
KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A
HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE SHOULD
STRUGGLE DURING THE EVENING AS A CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED.

..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 04/09/2012

Hazard
Mon (04/09)Moderate
Tue (04/10) Slight
Wed (04/11) Slight
Thu (04/12) Severe
Fri (04/13) No Area
Sat (04/14) Severe
Sun (04/15) No Area
Mon (04/16) No Area
Things will be warming up again--natch--over most of the US again over the next two weeks, according to the CPC:

Hot

Hot
1233. LargoFl
good morning..dry as a bone here and soon the whole state will be red flagged for fire danger etc......URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
440 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LEE AND POLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...

.FOUR HOURS OR MORE OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

FLZ052-065-092300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0016.120409T1600Z-120409T2300Z/
POLK-LEE-
440 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR POLK AND LEE COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...POLK...LEE.

* WIND...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING WEST BY AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY...25 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

&&

$$


JOHNSON
1234. MahFL
Good morning all.
On the newsfront, it gets ridiculous when Yahoo reports a punch up at a wedding by a drunken women, that kind of thing happens at weddings, and I've seen it first hand too.
This looks promising...

Quoting LargoFl:
good morning..dry as a bone here and soon the whole state will be red flagged for fire danger etc......URGENT - FIRE WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL
440 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR LEE AND POLK COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON...

.FOUR HOURS OR MORE OF LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL CREATE
CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

FLZ052-065-092300-
/O.NEW.KTBW.FW.W.0016.120409T1600Z-120409T2300Z/
POLK-LEE-
440 AM EDT MON APR 9 2012

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM EDT THIS
EVENING FOR POLK AND LEE COUNTIES...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAMPA BAY AREA - RUSKIN FL HAS
ISSUED A RED FLAG WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM NOON TODAY TO
7 PM EDT THIS EVENING.

* AFFECTED AREA...POLK...LEE.

* WIND...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH BECOMING WEST BY AFTERNOON.

* HUMIDITY...25 TO 30 PERCENT IN THE AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...ANY FIRES THAT DEVELOP WILL LIKELY SPREAD RAPIDLY.
OUTDOOR BURNING IS NOT RECOMMENDED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS ISSUED WHEN VERY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR
THE SPREAD OF WILDFIRE ARE OCCURRING NOW...OR WILL OCCUR WITHIN
24 HOURS.

&&

$$


JOHNSON

I know how you feel... I can't remember a spring dry stretch as long as this... This is supposed to be our rainiest time of the year and we've had nothing.
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
I just got dual monitors today and I don't think I'll ever go back to 1. Anybody else have a dual /tri setup?




I have three on mine. It's an "Eyefinity" setup.
Quoting txjac:


Go Ron Paul


Yeah! And take BO with you...
I think- just a hunch, but I think the national weather service might be a little concerned about the potential for fire weather in the northeast/mid atlantic. . .
Quoting Neapolitan:
Things will be warming up again--natch--over most of the US again over the next two weeks, according to the CPC:

Hot

Hot


Yep not good! I see 90's are back in the forecast for FL either by Sunday or for sure most of next week here in C FL. April is trending one of the warmest on record here in Orlando I know it's early but the temps are forecast to be above normal everyday except maybe Thursday.
Quoting LargoFl:
On a global warming topic, IF gasoline goes to $6.oo a gallon as donald trump and others are predicting, most U.S workers would tend to stop driving to work IF that is possible, I knoq some work many many miles from home BUT, if workers stopped driving, would the impact of the dirty air pollution now NOT being produced and sent into the atmosphere, delay or even Lessen...global warming? assuming in Other countries the impact of prices would sky rocket as well..i KNOW..6.00 a gallon may already be in some parts of europe..whew...


Its getting ridiculous here in England £1.48 a Litre thats $8.88 per us gallon crazy, When i passed my driving test 8 years ago it was 0.75p a litre.
I have to say, a moderate risk was quite unexpected for today. However, as I mentioned last night, some very large hail will be possible. They must expect extensive coverage as well. A few tornadoes are also possible.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE
DAY IN FAR WRN OK NEAR THE OK-TX STATE-LINE. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SRN KS...NW OK AND THE
FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NW TX THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.

TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FROM SW KS EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE THE NAM AND
NAMKF INCREASE MLCAPE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WRN OK SHOW STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KT
RANGE SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO
8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED LARGE
HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
SSEWD...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR WITH
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX.

...WEST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY
WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT VERY WEAK SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AND NORTHWEST
OF DEL RIO SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35
KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A
HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE SHOULD
STRUGGLE DURING THE EVENING AS A CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED.

..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 04/09/2012

On top of that, it still appears we're going to have back to back to back tornado outbreaks starting Thursday.

Severe Weather isn't the only thing to be active this week...

Quoting MarcoIslandCat5:


Its getting ridiculous here in England £1.48 a Litre thats $8.88 per us gallon crazy, When i passed my driving test 8 years ago it was 0.75p a litre.


And most of the money is going to Muslim countries, where the end result is their going to own every one of us.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Severe Weather isn't the only thing to be active this week...



looks like the Thursday and Saturday prediction has changed, lets hope and pray for a non tornado day today, in the high risk category
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Severe Weather isn't the only thing to be active this week...



Yeah the fire threat across the mid Atlantic & Southwest US looks extreme this week. even worse than in FL which is hard to imagine as it can't get any drier here. We had .74 last Friday and you can't even tell it rained due to temps in the 80's with low humidity drying everything out fast.
Quoting trunkmonkey:


looks like the Thursday and Saturday prediction has changed, lets hope and pray for a non tornado day today, in the high risk category

I wish, but it looks like there will be tornado potential everyday starting on Thursday, and it looks like the "main event" will occur on Saturday as the strongest bulk shear associated with this upcoming multi-day Severe Weather event ejects into the severe threat area.

We'll very likely be in the .00 to +.02C range once the enso update comes out today as the SOI Index continues to crash. Basically the official end to La-Nina today!

Quoting StormTracker2K:
We'll very likely be in the .00 to .02C range once the enso update comes out today as the SOI Index continues to crash. Basically the official end to La-Nina today!


According to this image, it has leveled off some and will probably be around -0.2/-0.3 %uFFFDC still.

Anyways, I'm off to the horrible kid jail otherwise known as high school.

Some places are in it the highest severe weather risk all 3 days. Ouch.

I wonder how this will all pan out.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

According to this image, it has leveled off some and will probably be around -0.2/-0.3 %uFFFDC still.

Anyways, I'm off to the horrible kid jail otherwise known as high school.



LOL (kid jail). Good Luck and have a great day. The girls are waiting for ya.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Some places are in it the highest severe weather risk all 3 days. Ouch.

I wonder how this will all pan out.

shear appears to be ramping up again in a few days...

today's threat should mainly be large hail. :D

had some lumberjacks for breakfast. anyone ever have those??
I want to take a post to thank the Wundermap Fire and Smoke development team. Those maps are Fantastic. I am choking from the thick smoke here in north central Florida. And with these maps, I can see which fire my smoke is coming from AND where to go to get out of it when it gets too bad.
THANK YOU!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I have to say, a moderate risk was quite unexpected for today. However, as I mentioned last night, some very large hail will be possible. They must expect extensive coverage as well. A few tornadoes are also possible.



DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1252 AM CDT MON APR 09 2012

VALID 091200Z - 101200Z

...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE
AND WRN OK...

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF THE CNTRL AND
SRN PLAINS...

...SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN AND CNTRL PLAINS
TODAY. AT THE SFC...A DRYLINE WILL BECOME MORE FOCUSED DURING THE
DAY IN FAR WRN OK NEAR THE OK-TX STATE-LINE. MODEL FORECASTS RAPIDLY
WEAKEN THE CAPPING INVERSION THIS AFTERNOON ALLOWING FOR VIGOROUS
SFC-BASED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS FAR SRN KS...NW OK AND THE
FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD SPREAD SSEWD ACROSS SWRN
OK INTO NW TX THIS EVENING. THE INSTABILITY AND SHEAR ENVIRONMENT
SHOULD SUPPORT A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT ACROSS THE REGION.

TO THE EAST OF THE DRYLINE...MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY IS
FORECAST FROM SW KS EXTENDING SSEWD ACROSS WRN OK WHERE THE NAM AND
NAMKF INCREASE MLCAPE INTO THE 2000 TO 3000 J/KG RANGE. IN
ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z IN WRN OK SHOW STRONG
DIRECTIONAL SHEAR BELOW 700 MB WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR IN THE 45 TO 55 KT
RANGE SUGGESTING THE ENVIRONMENT WILL EASILY SUPPORT SUPERCELL
DEVELOPMENT. THE INSTABILITY...SHEAR AND STEEP LAPSE RATES OF 8.0 TO
8.5 C/KM SHOULD BE VERY FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL. THE MORE INTENSE
SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL GREATER THAN 2 INCHES
IN DIAMETER. THE GFS...NAM AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT
CONCERNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION ACROSS THE MODERATE RISK AREA.
CONFIDENCE IS GOOD THAT SUPERCELLS WILL PRODUCE A CONCENTRATED LARGE
HAIL THREAT LATE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FAR ERN TX PANHANDLE AND WRN
OK. THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER SHOULD ALSO BE
SUFFICIENT FOR TORNADOES. AS STORMS EXPAND IN COVERAGE AND MOVE
SSEWD...THE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM SHOULD BECOME INCREASINGLY LINEAR WITH
A WIND DAMAGE THREAT GRADUALLY DEVELOPING ACROSS SW OK AND NW TX.

...WEST TX...
AN UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE SRN ROCKIES TODAY
WITH AN AXIS OF INSTABILITY LOCATED ACROSS WEST TX BY MIDDAY.
ALTHOUGH SOME MODEL FORECASTS DEVELOP THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE
INSTABILITY AXIS THIS AFTERNOON...THE UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE WILL KEEP
LARGE-SCALE ASCENT VERY WEAK SUGGESTING CONVECTION SHOULD REMAIN
ISOLATED. FORECAST SOUNDINGS AT 00Z SOUTH OF LUBBOCK AND NORTHWEST
OF DEL RIO SHOW MLCAPE OF 1000 J/KG WITH 0-6 KM SHEAR OF 30 TO 35
KT. THIS COMBINED WITH STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES SHOULD SUPPORT A
HAIL THREAT. HOWEVER...ANY CONVECTION THAT CAN INITIATE SHOULD
STRUGGLE DURING THE EVENING AS A CAPPING INVERSION BECOMES
RE-ESTABLISHED.

..BROYLES/MOSIER.. 04/09/2012

On top of that, it still appears we're going to have back to back to back tornado outbreaks starting Thursday.



This front wasnt supposed to be as potent as it was

Looks like the south texas low will lift northward....


That stationary front along withthe other two to the north will increase instability.
1257. ncstorm
What a week this will be in the southern plains..day after day after day of severe weather and even next week

from the SPC Day 4-8

MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT IN FORECASTING AN INCREASE IN SEVERE
WEATHER ACROSS PARTS OF THE SRN AND CENTRAL PLAINS DURING D4/THU
THROUGH D6/SAT. SLY LOW LEVEL WINDS TO THE EAST OF A SURFACE LOW
DEVELOPING OVER WRN KS WILL RESULT IN RICH MOISTURE RETURN INTO
OK/KS ON D4/D5 AND THEN EXTENDING INTO PARTS OF THE MID/UPPER MS
VALLEY ON D6. THIS COMBINED WITH ENEWD EXTENSION OF STEEP MIDLEVEL
LAPSE RATES WILL RESULT IN MODERATE TO STRONG INSTABILITY DEVELOPING
THROUGH D6. SWLY MIDLEVEL WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN FROM MID TO LATE
THIS WEEK ACROSS THE REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS SUCH THAT
ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING
D4...D5...AND D6. THE STRONGEST BULK SHEAR IS EXPECTED ON D6/SAT
WITH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREA ALSO EXPANDING SWD SOME INTO N
TX AND NEWD INTO SWRN IA.

BEYOND D6...THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT MAY CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN
PLAINS...BUT MODEL UNCERTAINTIES PRECLUDE THE INCLUSION OF ANY
ADDITIONAL REGIONAL SEVERE WEATHER THREAT AREAS.

..PETERS.. 04/09/2012

1258. ncstorm
no more MDT, but a 30 wind added.
Quoting Neapolitan:
I hope everyone had a very blessed, Happy Easter yesterday. Things will be warming up again--natch--over most of the US again over the next two weeks, according to the CPC:

Hot

Hot
heating up for sure. almost like the severe weather season wants to continue all the way into may... at least with the warm temperatures forecasted,,

SAL map


You can see the ITCZ starting to move north....
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
no more MDT, but a 30 wind added.


MDT??
Quoting trunkmonkey:


And most of the money is going to Muslim countries, where the end result is their going to own every one of us.


Uh... OPEC only produces 25-30% of global oil production...

Many other countries also product oil, such as the US, Mexico, UK, Norway, etc.







The same spots for a whole week.
NEW BLOG
.