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CSU Calls for Near-Average 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season; Ex-Bonnie Tries a Comeback

By: Jeff Masters and Bob Henson 4:14 PM GMT on June 01, 2016

The 2016 Atlantic hurricane season is off to an early start, with two named storms already in the books before the official June 1 start of the season: Hurricane Alex in January, and Tropical Storm Bonnie in May. Despite this early-season activity, a near-average Atlantic hurricane season is likely in 2016, said Dr. Phil Klotzbach of Colorado State University (CSU) in his latest seasonal forecast issued June 1. The CSU forecast is calling for an Atlantic hurricane season with 14 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) of 94 (these numbers all take Alex and Bonnie into account.) The long-term averages for the period 1971 - 2010 were 12 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, and an ACE of 92. The CSU outlook also calls for a 50% chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S. in 2016, with a 30% chance for the East Coast and Florida Peninsula and a 29% chance for the Gulf Coast. The Caribbean is forecast to have a 40% chance of seeing at least one major hurricane. All of these probabilities are very close to the long-term numbers from the last century, and the forecast as a whole is largely consistent with CSU’s extended-range forecast issued on April 14. This is the 33rd year CSU has issued a seasonal hurricane forecast, but the first forecast done without Dr. Bill Gray as a main author, as he passed away on April 17.

Five years were selected as “analogue” years that the 2016 hurricane season may resemble:

1973 (8 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane)
1978 (11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 major hurricanes)
1983 (4 named storms, 3 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane)
1992 (7 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 1 major hurricane)
2003 (16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 3 major hurricanes)

These seasons were characterized by El Niño conditions in the previous winter that transitioned to either neutral or La Niña conditions by summer/autumn, and all had generally cool sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the far North Atlantic and near-average tropical Atlantic SSTs during hurricane season. The average activity for these years was 9.2 named storms, 4.6 hurricanes, and 1.7 major hurricanes--all fairly close to the long-term average.


Figure 1. Hurricane Alex approaching the Azores Islands in the far Eastern Atlantic on January 14, 2016. Alex peaked as a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds on January 14, then weakened to a tropical storm with 70 mph winds when it made landfall on Terceira Island in the Azores on January 15. The storm caused minimal damage and was responsible for one indirect death. Alex was the first Atlantic hurricane in January since Alice in 1955, and the first to form in January since 1938. Image credit: NASA.

A boost from El Niño’s departure, but uncertainty about tropical Atlantic SSTs
The CSU forecast cited two main reasons why this may be a near-average hurricane season:

1) The El Niño event now drawing to a close in the eastern tropical Pacific is expected to transition toward neutral conditions this summer and La Niña conditions by autumn (see the discussion below). If La Niña conditions are present this fall, this would tend to favor a busier-than-usual Atlantic hurricane season due to a reduction in the upper-level winds over the tropical Atlantic that can tear storms apart. SSTs had fallen to 0.1°C below average over the past week in the so-called Niño3.4 region (5°S - 5°N, 120°W - 170°W), where SSTs must be at least 0.5°C above average for five consecutive months (each month being a 3-month average) for a weak El Niño event to be declared. This is the first below-average weekly value in the Niño3.4 area since July 2014. By August-October, most dynamical models are calling for either cool-neutral conditions (Niño3.4 anomalies between 0 and -0.5°C) or La Niña conditions (Niño3.4 anomalies of -0.5°C or greater). As summarized by CPC/IRI, the mid-May average of dynamical models was calling for a Niño3.4 value in August-October of -0.9°C. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) shows the best prediction skill of the various El Niño/Southern Oscillation (ENSO) models, and the average of the various ECMWF ensemble members is calling for a Nino 3.4 SST anomaly of approximately -0.7°C for June-August, but rebounding slightly to -0.5°C by August-October, suggesting borderline-to-weak La Niña conditions. Several other models, including the NOAA Climate Forecast System (CFSv2), are projecting stronger La Niña conditions by the August-October period (the August-October anomaly from CFSv2 is -1.2°C, which would correspond to a moderate La Niña). In its monthly ENSO Diagnostic Discussion released on May 12, NOAA's Climate Prediction Center issued a La Niña Watch, with the new CPC/IRI probabilistic outlook calling for a 71% chance of La Niña during the August-October period.


Figure 2. Departures from average in sea surface temperature (in degrees C) during late May 2016. Image credit: CSU and NOAA/ESRL/PSD.


Figure 3. Departures from average in sea level pressure (in millibars/hPa) during May 2016. The Bermuda-Azores high was stronger than average, which was driving stronger trade winds than average over the tropical Atlantic. Image credit: CSU and NOAA/ESRL/PSD.

2) A fairly unusual sea-surface temperature pattern is present across the North Atlantic, leading to some uncertainty about how this factor will evolve later in the year. During 2016 to date, SSTs were above average in the Northwest Atlantic and below average in the far North Atlantic and eastern subtropical Atlantic, a pattern that the CSU group has associated with the negative phase of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. However, as shown in Figure 3 above, SSTs in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes, from the Caribbean to the coast of Africa between 10°N and 20°N, were slightly above average in late May (with the exception of cooler-than-average waters just off the coast of Africa). Virtually all African tropical waves originate in the MDR, and these tropical waves account for 85% of all Atlantic major hurricanes and 60% of all named storms. When SSTs in the MDR are much above average during hurricane season, a very active season typically results (if there is no El Niño event present.) Conversely, when MDR SSTs are cooler than average, a below-average Atlantic hurricane season is more likely. Despite the presence of above-average SSTs in the MDR this May, there is another factor that correlates even more strongly with the amount of Atlantic hurricane activity later in the year: the May SSTs across the eastern subtropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic. When these waters are cooler than average in springtime, as they are now, the CSU group finds that the cool SSTs tend to cause higher surface air pressure and stronger trade winds across the tropical Atlantic as the summer unfolds, which typically pushes the MDR SSTs below average by the peak of the Atlantic season.

While factor (1) suggests an above-average hurricane season, factor (2) would point toward a below-average season. Together with other variables considered in the CSU forecast, the result is the group’s projection of near-average conditions, which is similar to the NOAA outlook issued last week. See our post from May 27 for a roundup of the recent outlooks from NOAA and other groups, some of which are calling for more Atlantic activity than average. One factor in the mix: some long-range climate models are now projecting that slightly above-average SSTs will persist in the tropical Atlantic, as depicted in May output from the North American Multi-Model Ensemble.

As always, the CSU forecast included this standard disclaimer: “…coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted."


Figure 4. GOES satellite image of the remnants of Tropical Storm Bonnie at 1515Z (11:15 am EDT) Wednesday, June 1, 2016. Image credit: NASA Earth Science Office and NOAA.

Hurricane Hunters tasked to investigate ex-Bonnie
Satellite loops show that the remains of Tropical Storm Bonnie, located off the southeast coast of North Carolina on Wednesday morning, have increased in organization. Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased and the system has acquired more spin, thanks to the fact that ex-Bonnie is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear and is over the relatively warm 26°C (79°F) waters of the Gulf Stream. The Hurricane Hunters have been tasked to investigate ex-Bonnie on Thursday afternoon as the storm heads slowly east-northeastwards out to sea at about 5 mph. Ex-Bonnie is expected to bring 1 - 2" of rain to extreme eastern North Carolina through Thursday. Wind shear is projected to remain light to moderate during the next 48 hours. Bonnie’s remnants will have an uphill battle fully regrouping, given that the system will remain fairly close to the Carolina coast until the shear rapidly increases by Friday, but the situation bears a close watch.

Where will the Atlantic's Tropical Storm Colin form?
The next named storm for the Atlantic will be named Colin, and there are two areas to watch next week for Colin's potential development. Over the Western Caribbean, a large area of low pressure laden with plenty of tropical moisture is expected to form early next week. This moisture will ride up over the Florida Keys and South Florida by Monday, bringing heavy rains of 2 - 4" through Tuesday. About 10% of the members of the ensemble runs of the 00Z Wednesday GFS and European models showed a tropical depression forming between the Western Caribbean and South Florida early next week, so we should keep an eye on this region. Wind shear will be high over the Central Gulf of Mexico, though, and this high shear will likely interfere with development. The other region to watch is the waters between Puerto Rico and Bermuda, where the GFS model predicts an area of low pressure capable of developing into a tropical cyclone will form on Sunday or Monday. This low would not be a threat to land, as prevailing winds would take it east-northeast away from the United States and the Caribbean.

First tropical depression of the season likely in the Eastern Pacific this week
In the Eastern Pacific, satellite loops show that an area of heavy thunderstorms located about 1000 miles south of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula has become more concentrated over the past day. This disturbance (91E) is likely to develop into the Eastern Pacific's first tropical cyclone of the year late this week, according to recent runs of the GFS and European models. The disturbance is moving west-northwestward at about 15 mph, and is not a threat to any land areas. In their 8 am EDT Wednesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 91E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 50% and 90%, respectively. Should 91E become a tropical storm, it would be named Agatha. The first named storm of the year in the Eastern Pacific typically forms on June 10, so we would be very close to climatology if Agatha were to develop later this week.


Jeff Masters and Bob Henson

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments


The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 15 miles south of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Satellite and radar data indicate
that this system is re-gaining tropical cyclone characteristics,
and the National Hurricane Center will resume advisories on
Tropical Depression Bonnie at 11 AM EDT.

From the NHC
This morning AscaT shows a closed circulation with 92L. It appears that the system regained TD status.
Bonnie finally back
Quoting 496. JrWeathermanFL:



I'd honestly like an explanation from the NHC as to why a storm the was likely at TS strength since last night AND hitting land is being treated as a remnant low

There isn't one.
505. MahFL
Quoting 499. islander101010:

tampa? its going to get hit one day and its going to be bad. look out in Sept or Oct. 2016


Gulf upto 30% and TD Bonnie at 11 am !
Quoting 480. Bucsboltsfan:



Good morning. Looking like some pretty good consensus with the Euro and GFS. Thoughts?


Hello... sure looks like they're and consistently at it for quite sometime with other models also hinting towards a "similar" solution.

Moisture surge about to get the extreme Western to NW Caribbean soon:



Once that surge arrives to the NW Caribbean then we'll have in place the initial ingredient to get something going as long as we have a lifting mechanism in the form of a TW, persistent vorticity maxima(s) accompanying the moisture surge, etc... I can't rule out that if the Trades winds are strong enough that it could also aid in the pooling of moisture and low development in the NW Caribbean while also being aided by the geography of the region.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 15 miles south of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Satellite and radar data indicate
that this system is re-gaining tropical cyclone characteristics,
and the National Hurricane Center will resume advisories on
Tropical Depression Bonnie at 11 AM EDT.

A broad low pressure area is expected to form over the southern Gulf
of Mexico by early next week. Additional slow development of the
low could occur as it subsequently moves north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 492. weathermanwannabe:

Bold statement but good point; here is the most recent vis loop; this will make for interesting comments.......




Smh based on satellite imagery this "remnant low" is forming some banding features to South and North of the center. Indicating that shear is favorable and convection is organizing as a result. There is no way that this system isn't a Tropical cyclone and appears to be strengthening as it finds its spot.
6Z navy model............................................. ..........................
Quoting 501. JrWeathermanFL:


The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 15 miles south of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Satellite and radar data indicate
that this system is re-gaining tropical cyclone characteristics,
and the National Hurricane Center will resume advisories on
Tropical Depression Bonnie at 11 AM EDT.

From the NHC

Several hours too late imo
Quoting 500. K8eCane:

Bonnie looks like something.
New Hanover County NC is full of coastal businesses that make millions during tourist season. Dont shoot the messenger but I have heard rumors that kick backs to the weather services are rampant here, as well as kickbacks in other areas. Hey dont shoot the messenger
Honestly not opposed to a TS hitting us...We DESPERATELY need the rain around here. Something quick yet wet like Andrea would help.

Our corn is scorching and the grass is brown.
Woke up to Bonnie being brought back to tropical life. Looks healthy too, waters off the OBX are getting the gulf stream heat being above 25°C. Center should approach just south of Cape Hatteras in a few hours if its current ENE motion continues.
This blob still hangin around

Hey, help!

I apologize if this has been asked already by someone else, but I just discovered my weather underground app is no longer working on my iPhone6. I had to come in here via my regular browser program. Me no likey.

I see from another source that the app was "upgraded" yesterday. What did you guys do to it?
518. Ed22
Quoting 508. Ricki13th:


Smh based on satellite imagery this "remnant low" is forming some banding features to South and North of the center. Indicating that shear is favorable and convection is organizing as a result. There is no way that this system isn't a Tropical cyclone and appears to be strengthening as it finds its spot.
I've been watching Ex- Bonnie from when it form up on till it made landfall early Sunday morning and I said this tropical cyclone is gonna wiggle itself back over the Gulf stream, so it did just that; it strengthened further today and could become Tropical storm Bonnie again... Colin could be on its way early next week my 2016 hurricane season prediction again 15 to 20 named storm/ 4 to 8 hurricane/ 2 to 4 major and 2 to 4 minimal to moderately strong hurricanes... What say you weather enthusiasts...
Good discussion as to Bonnie; here are the NHC terms for sub and extra-tropical. Kudos to TA13 on his assumption that the system is still warm cored (meriting tropical depression status) but I still note the marginal SST's:

Post-tropical Cyclone:
A former tropical cyclone. This generic term describes a cyclone that no longer possesses sufficient tropical characteristics to be considered a tropical cyclone. Post-tropical cyclones can continue carrying heavy rains and high winds. Note that former tropical cyclones that have become fullyextratropical...as well as remnant lows...are two classes of post-tropical cyclones.

Subtropical Cyclone:
A non-frontal low-pressure system that has characteristics of both tropical and extratropical cyclones. Like tropical cyclones, they are non-frontal, synoptic-scale cyclones that originate over tropical or subtropical waters, and have a closed surface wind circulation about a well-defined center. In addition, they have organized moderate to deep convection, but lack a central dense overcast. Unlike tropical cyclones, subtropical cyclones derive a significant proportion of their energy from baroclinic sources, and are generally cold-core in the upper troposphere, often being associated with an upper-level low or trough. In comparison to tropical cyclones, these systems generally have a radius of maximum winds occurring relatively far from the center (usually greater than 60 n mi), and generally have a less symmetric wind field and distribution of convection.
Now that percentages are up to 30% we should see 93L designated shortly. Area the NHC is watching is just NE of Honduras.


Folks across the FL Penisula better be watching the Gulf this weekend as models show a rapidly building system as it comes into Western FL. Euro is showing winds of 60mph as it traverses C FL. Could even be a minimal hurricane if many of these Euro and GFS ensembles pan out as well as the CMC.

I'm raising my odds of development in the Caribbean/Gulf to 70%. This is a fairly classic setup, and we have consistent model consensus. Shear should prevent an overly strong system in the Gulf, but heavy rain will be a big issue regardless.
Quoting 506. WxLogic:



Hello... sure looks like they're and consistently at it for quite sometime with other models also hinting towards a "similar" solution.

Moisture surge about to get the extreme Western to NW Caribbean soon:



Once that surge arrives to the NW Caribbean then we'll have in place the initial ingredient to get something going as long as we have a lifting mechanism in the form of a TW, persistent vorticity maxima(s) accompanying the moisture surge, etc... I can't rule out that if the Trades winds are strong enough that it could also aid in the pooling of moisture and low development in the NW Caribbean while also being aided by the geography of the region.


Good morning 27.55" @ my place for the year thanks mainly to May & January. 9.44" for May. Picked up nearly 3" last Sunday alone followed by nearly a inch Monday night. Pretty impressive "Wet" Dry Season we had huh.
Quoting 507. GeoffreyWPB:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 15 miles south of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Satellite and radar data indicate
that this system is re-gaining tropical cyclone characteristics,
and the National Hurricane Center will resume advisories on
Tropical Depression Bonnie at 11 AM EDT.

A broad low pressure area is expected to form over the southern Gulf
of Mexico by early next week. Additional slow development of the
low could occur as it subsequently moves north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven

They're only 10 hours too late.
Quoting 522. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I'm raising my odds of development in the Caribbean/Gulf to 70%. This is a fairly classic setup, and we have consistent model consensus. Shear should prevent an overly strong system in the Gulf, but heavy rain will be a big issue regardless.


Euro has low shear across the Western Gulf as the upper trough hangs out across the Western Gulf. This thing could ramp up quick as the Euro and CMC suggest and I have to say these to models have been showing this since last Saturday. GFS just caught on last night.
Quoting 521. StormTrackerScott:

Folks across the FL Penisula better be watching the Gulf this weekend as models show a rapidly building system as it comes into Western FL. Euro is showing winds of 60mph as it traverses C FL. Could even be a minimal hurricane if many of these Euro and GFS ensembles pan out as well as the CMC.




Really strong model consensus with this. The impacts for us are really in question. This could be a 45mph TS or a 90mph hurricane. The longer it waits to develop (if it does) the less time left for strengthening.
Quoting 513. JrWeathermanFL:

Honestly not opposed to a TS hitting us...We DESPERATELY need the rain around here. Something quick yet wet like Andrea would help.

Our corn is scorching and the grass is brown.


Very wet over by Orlando. A complete flip from last year across FL.
Quoting 526. Bucsboltsfan:



Really strong model consensus with this. The impacts for us are really in question. This could be a 45mph TS or a 90mph hurricane. The longer it waits to develop (if it does) the less time left for strengthening.


Strange to have the Euro so consistent for so many days I mean since Saturday. If that doesn't say something then I don't know what does. Euro is showing why its the top dawg of weather models.
530. Ed22
Quoting 508. Ricki13th:


Smh based on satellite imagery this "remnant low" is forming some banding features to South and North of the center. Indicating that shear is favorable and convection is organizing as a result. There is no way that this system isn't a Tropical cyclone and appears to be strengthening as it finds its spot.

I would placed the center of tropical depression Bonnie at 75.9 west and 35.4 north, Bonnie could strengthened further today as moved slowly east- northeast at 5 mph... Colin could be on its way early next week and the Blob near the Bahamas need to be monitored too...
Quoting 528. Grothar:




Looking wet Gro. Orlando down to SE FL could have some flooding issues especially across the Vero Beach area where 18" of rain fell in May.
Quoting 528. Grothar:




All that water will cause St. Lucie County turn into a lake. This should cause Pres. Obama's plane not to land in Fort Pierce for his holiday weekend at the Floridian resort in Palm City for golfing lol.
533. beell
Quoting 504. TropicalAnalystwx13:


There isn't one.


Other than a small degree of patience to check for persistence. Say...12 hrs? No harm done, WPC will give Bonnie back to NHC this morning at 11AM. About 12 hrs after Bonnie began to look very interesting.

Perhaps the NHC was a bit early ADDED: without an adequate source of mid/upper data over/around a very small system in declaring loss of warm core status based on a very small difference in the surrounding environmental temperature profile and mid-upper level core temps. A situation that still appears to be in place this morning.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

the 0000 UTC Charleston, South Carolina upper-air sounding showed than Bonnie
was barely holding on to warm-core, tropical cyclone status with only 1 deg C warmer temperatures than the surrounding environment indicated between 500-300 mb.


Sure appears to be a shallow tropical depression this morning.
:)
AL, 02, 2016060212, , BEST, 0, 349N, 754W, 25, 1009, TD
Also the models long range are showing a very active Tropics across the Caribbean/SW Atlantic. Something we haven't seen in many years and is the reason I think the US and Caribbean are in for it this year. I think numbers 15 to 17 systems are on tap this year.
Quoting 537. StormTrackerScott:

Also the models long range are showing a very active Tropics across the Caribbean/SW Atlantic. Something we haven't seen in many years and is the reason I think the US and Caribbean are in for it this year. I think numbers 15 to 17 systems are on tap this year.


I teased Gro yesterday about whether he had flood insurance. But this year FEMA will be doling out $$ in flood claims if this season pans out as the current thinking indicates.
Is it an EYE? LOL
(checks cupboard...adds "instant espresso" to grocery list)
543. MahFL
Some extreme moisture down there :

Quoting 507. GeoffreyWPB:

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU JUN 2 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The NOAA Weather Prediction Center is issuing advisories on
Post-Tropical Cyclone Bonnie, located about 15 miles south of
Cape Hatteras, North Carolina. Satellite and radar data indicate
that this system is re-gaining tropical cyclone characteristics,
and the National Hurricane Center will resume advisories on
Tropical Depression Bonnie at 11 AM EDT.

A broad low pressure area is expected to form over the southern Gulf
of Mexico by early next week. Additional slow development of the
low could occur as it subsequently moves north-northeastward.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent

$$
Forecaster Beven


Finally. IMO this should have been designated last night at 11pm.

Expect a Tropical Storm Watch for Cape Hatteras at 11am.
Quoting 539. rmbjoe1954:



I teased Gro yesterday about whether he had flood insurance. But this year FEMA will be doling out $$ in flood claims if this season pans out as the current thinking indicates.


Yeah you can tell already its going to be active. Both Euro and GFS long range are showing a lot of enhanced convection across the Caribbean. Compared to the last several years this is a big change and it could be a bad sign for the US as we go further into this Hurricane Season.
Hmmm. On the "upgrade" notification in my App Store there is a bunch of nonsense that is apparently meant to be funny.

Is it just my App Store on my phone that's been hacked, or was the WU roll-out of an actual upgrade messed with?
And it's only June 2nd............................................... ..............
Quoting 533. beell:



Other than a small degree of patience to check for persistence. Say...12 hrs? No harm done, the WPC will give Bonnie back to the NHC this morning at 11AM. About 12 hrs after Bonnie began to look very interesting.

Perhaps the NHC was a bit early in declaring loss of warm core status based on a very small difference in the surrounding environmental temperature profile and mid-upper level core temps. A situation that still appears to be in place this morning.


TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
500 AM EDT MON MAY 30 2016

the 0000 UTC Charleston, South Carolina upper-air sounding showed than Bonnie
was barely holding on to warm-core, tropical cyclone status with only 1 deg C warmer temperatures than the surrounding environment indicated between 500-300 mb.


Sure appears to be a shallow tropical depression this morning.
:)

Maybe, but there have been numerous times where they haven't used the 12 hour persistence factor. Some consistency one way or the other would be nice.
Quoting 546. GreyJewel:

Hmmm. On the "upgrade" notification in my App Store there is a bunch of nonsense that is apparently meant to be funny.

Is it just my App Store on my phone that's been hacked, or was the WU roll-out of an actual upgrade messed with?

I haven't had any issues with the update. The App Store text does have two lines of jokes before the break down what the update contains. Have you removed the App then reinstalled it to see if that corrects the issue?
Looks like August out there
Quoting 538. rmbjoe1954:



The C17 that landed at Stuart airport Tuesday will be ordering 120,000 gallons of fuel--and for what? This at taxpayer expense will be needless as I am sure his golf outing at the Floridian resort will be canceled.
1) The C17 holds just 28,000 gallons of fuel; 2) Yes, protecting the President is at taxpayer expense, for we decided as a country long ago that having POTUS fly unattended coach was probably not a good idea; 3) the precipitation forecast calls for up to 4" of rain over the next week; that's hardly enough to "turn the county into a lake"--or lead to cancellation of golfing; 4) Obama's Florida trip is a fundraising one, with golf but one of the many activities/events planned for him; 5) GWB took roughly four times as many vacation days as Obama has, and rain didn't impede him too much, so I wouldn't spend too much time fretting over the outcome of Obama's planned golf outing.
Quoting 531. StormTrackerScott:



Looking wet Gro. Orlando down to SE FL could have some flooding issues especially across the Vero Beach area where 18" of rain fell in May.


We are very, very dry. Not a drop of rain.

Been a while since I've been in a Day 4 and beyond 30% severe risk.
Quoting 551. Neapolitan:

1) The C17 holds just 28,000 gallons of fuel; 2) Yes, protecting the President is at taxpayer expense, for we decided as a country long ago that having POTUS fly unattended coach was probably not a good idea; 3) the precipitation forecast calls for up to 4" of rain over the next week; that's hardly enough to "turn the county into a lake"--or lead to cancellation of golfing; 4) Obama's Florida trip is a fundraising one, with golf but one of the many activities/events planned for him; 5) GWB took roughly four times as many vacation days as Obama has, and rain didn't impede him too much, so I wouldn't spend too much time fretting over the outcome of Obama's planned golf outing.
556. Ed22
Quoting 520. StormTrackerScott:

Now that percentages are up to 30% we should see 93L designated shortly. Area the NHC is watching is just NE of Honduras.



Well, well, well Colin could be on its way early next week...
Quoting 554. Tornado6042008X:


Been a while since I've been in a Day 4 and beyond 30% severe risk.


Wait, what is that lol
Quoting 553. GeoffreyWPB:



Blobation coming?
Quoting 552. Grothar:



We are very, very dry. Not a drop of rain.


Ho Gro-
Not a drop here either since Tuesday. Nature is taking pity on us before the deluge.
560. beell
Your Houston, TX forecast...



I have a promise to keep to a little lady of a blog member to declare a blob this week.

Cows, too? I thought it was just racehorses.
Quoting 557. VAbeachhurricanes:



Wait, what is that lol
A strong cold front associated with a strong Great Lakes low pushing through late Sunday.

Quoting 538. rmbjoe1954:



The C17 that landed at Stuart airport Tuesday will be ordering 120,000 gallons of fuel--and for what? This at taxpayer expense will be needless as I am sure his golf outing at the Floridian resort will be canceled.


I meant 20,00 gallons extra ordered for inventory. Error noted and corrected.
Atlantic Hurricane Season 2016

This hurricane season is already very interesting, and we are barely into the month of June!

We observed Hurricane Alex forming in January, Bonnie was a May storm, and still happening.

Now, it appears the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico are going to see some early action!

It is still unclear what the rest of the hurricane season has in store, but it appears that it will be more active than we have observed in the last few years!

Will 8 more named storms form in the Atlantic basin, or maybe 14 more named storms will form .... good question, and we will see what happens with the diminishing El Nino.



xx/xx/xx
Quoting 520. StormTrackerScott:

Now that percentages are up to 30% we should see 93L designated shortly. Area the NHC is watching is just NE of Honduras.


wrong thats a 30% ch for the next five days for the next 48hrs near 0 percent so no 93L today
From the SPC

FINALLY...MODELS CONTINUE TO HINT THAT A WEAK LOW OF TROPICAL ORIGIN
MAY SHIFT NEWD ACROSS THE ERN GULF DAY 5 /MON. 6-6/...AND INTO FL
LATE DAY 5/EARLY DAY 6. WHILE THIS COULD RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN
WIND/ISOLATED TORNADO RISK ACROSS THE FL PENINSULA...PROBABILITY
APPEARS TO REMAIN BELOW 15% THRESHOLD REQUIRED FOR INTRODUCTION OF A
RISK AREA.
The redesignation process for Bonnie has started

Updated intensity on ATCF

Bonnie is back
Quoting 561. Grothar:

I have a promise to keep to a little lady of a blog member to declare a blob this week.




Moisture is in place. Should stream northwest towards the Yucatan and SE GOM developing in the yellow circle. Easy forecast.
G'morning keeper.
G'morning MahFL.
G'morning Gro.

Big goood morning to all the Texas floating lurkiers.
Across the board:




Upper


Lower
Levi - it's Tidbit time.
Quoting 574. Bucsboltsfan:

Levi - it's Tidbit time.


he will do one when he is ready to do so and when he has time too do it and not when bloger here tell him too do it
glub glub in texas....i think we need snorkles

Quoting 571. aquak9:

G'morning keeper.
G'morning MahFL.
G'morning Gro.

Big goood morning to all the Texas floating lurkiers.

sw carib looks as if an upper trough is tickling a tropical wave. once the ul trough pulls out cyclogenesis can begin
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 2h2 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Worried about sudden lining up of mid level center with surface and rapid increase of wind around Bonnie. Tricky day on outerbanks
580. Ed22
Quoting 508. Ricki13th:


Smh based on satellite imagery this "remnant low" is forming some banding features to South and North of the center. Indicating that shear is favorable and convection is organizing as a result. There is no way that this system isn't a Tropical cyclone and appears to be strengthening as it finds its spot.
It could be Tropical storm at 2pm, however it current location is 35.5 north and 75.9 west moving slowly east-northeast at 5 mph...
Quoting 551. Neapolitan:
1) The C17 holds just 28,000 gallons of fuel; 2) Yes, protecting the President is at taxpayer expense, for we decided as a country long ago that having POTUS fly unattended coach was probably not a good idea; 3) the precipitation forecast calls for up to 4" of rain over the next week; that's hardly enough to "turn the county into a lake"--or lead to cancellation of golfing; 4) Obama's Florida trip is a fundraising one, with golf but one of the many activities/events planned for him; 5) GWB took roughly four times as many vacation days as Obama has, and rain didn't impede him too much, so I wouldn't spend too much time fretting over the outcome of Obama's planned golf outing.


35,546 gallons actually...
Well, not even a week out and we have a potential problem for Florida.. Sad thing is, it is forecast to happen in less then a week, yet the storm hasn't even formed yet. A strong TS or even a low end Category 1 Hurricane may hit the west coast, stay in tact over the peninsula due to quick movement, then come off the east coast between St. Augustine to Vero Beach. So it can come off of Flagler Beach, Daytona Beach, or Melbourne, Very interesting days ahead, I already told my wife to buy some candles for our apartment. I want to make sure we are prepared for the worst. When all models come together like we are seeing here, a TS is going to most likely form and impact the state. Interesting days ahead for the 2016 Hurricane Season.
583. Ed22
Quoting 508. Ricki13th:


Smh based on satellite imagery this "remnant low" is forming some banding features to South and North of the center. Indicating that shear is favorable and convection is organizing as a result. There is no way that this system isn't a Tropical cyclone and appears to be strengthening as it finds its spot. Tropical Depression Bonnie would be on its way to become Tropical storm Bonnie later today...
Will be interesting to see if Bonnie can regain TS status.

GFS has dropped the development between Puerto Rico and Bermuda (it was from that area of convection by the Bahamas).

Hopefully future Colin won't be too bad. But models seem to have it becoming a strong tropical storm dumping a lot of rain and I wouldn't rule out the possibility of a hurricane.

Quite the start to the season so far! To think we'll break the record for earliest formation of the 3rd system if we do indeed get Colin before June 11th.
So what is important with this storm is where it forms, if it forms further west over the Yucatan, it should stay weaker and head further north. (GFS and EURO) If it forms further east and stays stronger it should move over South Florida as a Strong TS or Cat 1. (CMC and NAVGEM). Wait and Watch! :)
Quoting 582. reedzone:

Well, not even a week out and we have a potential problem for Florida.. Sad thing is, it is forecast to happen in less then a week, yet the storm hasn't even formed yet. A strong TS or even a low end Category 1 Hurricane may hit the west coast, stay in tact over the peninsula due to quick movement, then come off the east coast between St. Augustine to Vero Beach. So it can come off of Flagler Beach, Daytona Beach, or Melbourne, Very interesting days ahead, I already told my wife to buy some candles for our apartment. I want to make sure we are prepared for the worst. When all models come together like we are seeing here, a TS is going to most likely form and impact the state. Interesting days ahead for the 2016 Hurricane Season.


Hi Alan-
I am more concerned with the heavy rains expected from this activity - no matter if this low turns into a tropical storm or not. Pumping stations are going to have to work overtime this season.
Quoting 586. rmbjoe1954:



Hi Alan-
I am more concerned with the heavy rains expected from this activity - no matter if this low turns into a tropical storm or not. Pumping stations are going to have to work overtime this season.


Exactly, and not much time to prepare, only 5 days until the models have this hitting Florida.
Layman's question:

This Bonnie storm seems somewhat unusual. Not around here that much... but it seems to me that this storm is where it was days ago. Has it been motionless all this time or did it do some sort of loop?

How often does a storm just sit there and spin for so long, especially one so marginal....? and with water temps also marginal and the thing being so close to land... it seems to be a very unlikely critter.

Also,
Europe floods: 10 dead amid fears of fresh heavy rainfall

Link
This isn't bad at all, not widespread heavy rain like predicted.....YET

Dr. Rick Knabb- "Next Atlantic tropical storm will get the name Colin that replaced Charley, retired after the 2004 season." Coincidence?
Quoting 588. MontanaZephyr:

Layman's question:

This Bonnie storm seems somewhat unusual. Not around here that much... but it seems to me that this storm is where it was days ago. Has it been motionless all this time or did it do some sort of loop?

How often does a storm just sit there and spin for so long, especially one so marginal....? and with water temps also marginal and the thing being so close to land... it seems to be a very unlikely critter.

Also,

Here's its track over the past few days:



Storm motion is dictated by the larger pattern, and with Bonnie on the southern end of westerlies, it's just meandered. It should move more quickly east-northeast over the next day.

In terms of strength, ocean temperatures are marginal, around 24C. That is why we're seeing a depression or tropical storm instead of something stronger. Shear is light.
Quoting 582. reedzone:

Well, not even a week out and we have a potential problem for Florida.. Sad thing is, it is forecast to happen in less then a week, yet the storm hasn't even formed yet. A strong TS or even a low end Category 1 Hurricane may hit the west coast, stay in tact over the peninsula due to quick movement, then come off the east coast between St. Augustine to Vero Beach. So it can come off of Flagler Beach, Daytona Beach, or Melbourne, Very interesting days ahead, I already told my wife to buy some candles for our apartment. I want to make sure we are prepared for the worst. When all models come together like we are seeing here, a TS is going to most likely form and impact the state. Interesting days ahead for the 2016 Hurricane Season.


Even long range models showing possible more activity close to home. Looks like the cork is coming off the Tropics close to the US this year. Not a good sign going forward reminds me alot of the early part of the 2005 Hurricane Season.
595. vis0

CREDIT:: Groundhog day (Movie)
actually e cen florida could use some rain. been dry locally for a couple weeks jb mentioned there could be something in the western gulf a few weeks.
Quoting 561. Grothar:

I have a promise to keep to a little lady of a blog member to declare a blob this week.




We are on the task!

000
WTNT42 KNHC 021434
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016

Satellite imagery and coastal radar data indicate that the low
pressure area that was formerly Bonnie has developed persistent
organized convection near the center. Based on this, the system is
again being designated as a tropical depression. The initial
intensity of 25 kt and central pressure of 1009 mb are based on
surface data near the center, along with a satellite intensity
estimate of 25 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is 055/5. Bonnie is moving along the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone
should move generally east-northeastward to eastward with a gradual
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The
track forecast follows that of the various consensus models, which
are tightly clustered.

The center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters
for the next 12-24 hours while the vertical wind shear is light.
Thus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during
that time. After that, increasing shear and sea surface
temperatures below 24C should cause Bonnie to again degenerate to a
remnant low, with the system dissipating by 72 hours.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 35.1N 75.1W 25 KT 30 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 35.3N 74.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 35.8N 72.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 36.1N 69.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 04/1200Z 36.1N 66.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 05/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
Forecaster Beven
Quoting 596. islander101010:

actually e cen florida could use some rain. been dry locally for a couple weeks


Whereabouts are you? I am in Martin/St. Lucie area and rainfall has been overwhelming.
Quoting 588. MontanaZephyr:

Layman's question:

This Bonnie storm seems somewhat unusual. Not around here that much... but it seems to me that this storm is where it was days ago. Has it been motionless all this time or did it do some sort of loop?

How often does a storm just sit there and spin for so long, especially one so marginal....? and with water temps also marginal and the thing being so close to land... it seems to be a very unlikely critter.

Also,

Stuck Pattern Syndrome. New phenomenon, result of Arctic Amplification.
If you look at the broad setting, the entire North-American plus north Atlantic plus European circulation of past week and days to come, you will see a virtual collaps of the circumpolar jet - it is hugely blocked and remainders are just stagnant alternately cyclonic or anticyclonic pools. The European floods of now are caused by a low that is even more stubborn than tiny Bonnie.
Of course any days' synopsis of last week is not unique. Blockings with a stagnant central Euro low are not unique. What is new, however, is the incredible duration of circulation patterns.
In a sense weather has become rather boring. A typical period for any type of weather in Europe would last on average 3-4 days. This century has this trending to double or triple that average.
It means it suffices to look at output like this only two or three times per month - Link
Presently, though, at the end of the periode there seems to be a pattern switch coming up. The first three charts are mere copies of what has been stuck already for a week now. The pattern is highly anomolous, hugely blocked.

The phenomenon has had me dump over three decades of meteorological experience. New regime, new, never yet seen circulation patterns.
Quoting 590. RitaEvac:

This isn't bad at all, not widespread heavy rain like predicted.....YET




Last night it was like the end of time ...lots of lightening and loud, crazy thunder! I lost power briefly.
Yea, the rain thus far today has been pretty mild.
Been out on u-tube watching videos of the Brazos river flooding.
Keep safe and dry now.
Hopefully pureet isnt in any kind of water related trouble
n.merritt.island rmbjoe afternoon thunderstorms fizzle out. thats normal for here. we seem to get our rains once the local waters start cooking.
Good morning all, i'm scared for the weekend. Looks like this disturbance has potential to hit Florida. Hopefully, i'll be ready for the worst, if it happens.
Quoting 603. birdsrock2016:

Good morning all, i'm scared for the weekend. Looks like this disturbance has potential to hit Florida. Hopefully, i'll be ready for the worst, if it happens.


It would be Tuesday of next week, according to the models.
00
WTNT42 KNHC 021434
TCDAT2

TROPICAL DEPRESSION BONNIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL022016
1100 AM EDT THU JUN 02 2016

Satellite imagery and coastal radar data indicate that the low
pressure area that was formerly Bonnie has developed persistent
organized convection near the center. Based on this, the system is
again being designated as a tropical depression. The initial
intensity of 25 kt and central pressure of 1009 mb are based on
surface data near the center, along with a satellite intensity
estimate of 25 kt from TAFB.

The initial motion estimate is 055/5. Bonnie is moving along the
southern edge of the mid-latitude westerlies, and the cyclone
should move generally east-northeastward to eastward with a gradual
increase in forward speed during the next couple of days. The
track forecast follows that of the various consensus models, which
are tightly clustered.

The center of Bonnie will be moving over warm Gulf Stream waters
for the next 12-24 hours while the vertical wind shear is light.
Thus, the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening during
that time. After that, increasing shear and sea surface
temperatures below 24C should cause Bonnie to again degenerate to a
remnant low, with the system dissipating by 72 hours.

Quoting 600. cRRKampen:


Stuck Pattern Syndrome. New phenomenon had me dump over three decades of meteorological experience. New regime, new, never yet seen circulation patterns.
faster and faster
Quoting 602. islander101010:

n.merritt.island rmbjoe afternoon thunderstorms fizzle out. thats normal for here. we seem to get our rains once the local waters start cooking.


It's nice up there islander-
I hope you get some rain- but it may a deluge.
This season will most likely be very active. My prediction: 20 named storms 14 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, so
20-4-2
02L/TD/B/XX
610. IKE
Hello to all from the humid Florida panhandle. Looks like GOM system will go well east of here..at this time.
Where are people getting the possibility of a hurricane from? I'd say worst case scenario is a moderate tropical storm coming ashore in Florida (between 50 and 60mph) but I don't see a hurricane unless the supposed "storm" takes its time moving from the Caribbean over the warm deep waters and develops a ULAC.Both of which I don't see happening.A lop sided tropical storm with rain being the biggest threat is what I see this "low" becoming and not a well developed hurricane.
good to see ya friend been wundering when you would show up
Well, after looking at the shear forecast from the GFS and CMC models and it makes sense why they are showing a strong storm. An anticyclone is forecast to developing over the forecasted storm and because of the trough, the anticyclone doesn't pull away from it, which means wind shear isn't an issue. That's the concerning part.
Quoting 614. reedzone:

Well, after looking at the shear forecast from the GFS and CMC models and it makes sense why they are showing a strong storm. An anticyclone is forecast to developing over the forecasted storm and because of the trough, the anticyclone doesn't pull away from it, which means wind shear isn't an issue. That's the concerning part.
well if it does go like that the gloves are off as too how strong it will get
Quoting 612. washingtonian115:

Where are people getting the possibility of a hurricane from? I'd say worst case scenario is a moderate tropical storm coming ashore in Florida (between 50 and 60mph) but I don't see a hurricane unless the supposed "storm" takes its time moving from the Caribbean over the warm deep waters and develops a ULAC.Both of which I don't see happening.A lop sided tropical storm with rain being the biggest threat is what I see happening here not a well developed hurricane.


GFS, EURO, and CMC all predict an ULAC to form. It all depends how strong the anticyclone can get on if this storm strengthens to a minimal hurricane. Current runs of all models says yes, while the GFS has an elongated ULAC and keeps the storm a moderate and strong TS.
Quoting 612. washingtonian115:

Where are people getting the possibility of a hurricane from? I'd say worst case scenario is a moderate tropical storm coming ashore in Florida (between 50 and 60mph) but I don't see a hurricane unless the supposed "storm" takes its time moving from the Caribbean over the warm deep waters and develops a ULAC.Both of which I don't see happening.A lop sided tropical storm with rain being the biggest threat is what I see happening here not a well developed hurricane.


Right now that's what the models are indicating (A low end Tropical Storm at the very worst). But as you mentioned if the system were to slow down and spend more time over the western Caribbean (and stay off the Yucatan) things could change.
Any of the 2 situations could be dangerous. If it dumps a lot of rain, we could have flooding like South Carolina did. If it is more of a wind threat, then we could be dealing with some damage to structures and houses.
Quoting 614. reedzone:

Well, after looking at the shear forecast from the GFS and CMC models and it makes sense why they are showing a strong storm. An anticyclone is forecast to developing over the forecasted storm and because of the trough, the anticyclone doesn't pull away from it, which means wind shear isn't an issue. That's the concerning part.
I don't see how as the trough is suppose to be strong and it looks (as per CWG) the conditions will be unfavorable in the GOM so whatever storm we do have will be sheared to the east.
Quoting 561. Grothar:

I have a promise to keep to a little lady of a blog member to declare a blob this week.




Ok, after several rounds of debate, and careful consideration of all relevant meteorological factors (see quotes below) - we declare this blob to definitely be . . . Olaf!



Olaf: Oh, I don't know why but I have always loved the idea of summer and sun and all things hot . . .
Kristoff: Really? I'm guessing you don't have much experience with heat.
Olaf: Nope!

"In Summer"

We are putting in a name change request to the NHC as we speak.

Edit: I have been told, by my colleague, that we forgot a relevant quote . . .
Olaf: Winter's a good time to stay in and cuddle, but put me in summer and I'll be a . . . . Happy Snowman!
T.C.F.A
91E/INV/XX/XX
Given the correct interpretation of tropical cyclone models these days, add a couple of categories to the most bullish output.
So I am, and I am serious on this, expecting this Colin next week at cat. 3. For now. Oh and no need at all to rule out a 5.
623. Ed22
Quoting 609. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

02L/TD/B/XX

Tropical Depression Bonnie is forecast to strengthened into Tropical storm Bonnie 2pm today... It about 75.5 west and 35.4 north moving east- northeast at 6 mph pressure 1009 mbs...
Bonnie looks much more impressive than she did last week. The Gulf stream waters really helped her to get circulation again.
Im flying from Nashville back home to Tampa Monday night..........maybe......hopefully whatever this blob is to be will hold off until then.
Looking at it now I'm more confident that NHC should circle the developing system in the SW Caribbean rather than the S-SE GOM also it should be tagged 93L soon

The most intense convection I've seen in the SW Caribbean in a good long while
Just to clarify I'm not talking about landfall in Florida, I'm talking about peak strength of the system. The GFS shows it becoming a strong TS after passing over Florida and likewise with the ECMWF and CMC (not that it holds much weight).
I predict that we'll continue to see the unpredictable this year for hurricane season. With these strange conditions and enough unknowns to fill up a jar with whatifs, not putting a lot of weight behind early season projections.
Quoting 610. IKE:

Hello to all from the humid Florida panhandle. Looks like GOM system will go well east of here..at this time.

Time will tell. I'm west of you and don't expect any problems here but went ahead and got gas for the generator and extra water and all that just in case. I don't like lines and all that stuff gets used sooner or later anyway.
going to be deep tropical moisture moving up with the sw carib system. thinks it humid now. just wait. hopefully most of it stays south of us.
Quoting 585. Camerooski:

So what is important with this storm is where it forms, if it forms further west over the Yucatan, it should stay weaker and head further north. (GFS and EURO) If it forms further east and stays stronger it should move over South Florida as a Strong TS or Cat 1. (CMC and NAVGEM). Wait and Watch! :)


I will hang on to East solution
At the rate I see things going in the SW Caribbean I'm seeing more of the NAVGEM solution
Quoting 632. Grothar:




Gro,
We could be in for a hell of a ride come September-October.

Quoting 618. birdsrock2016:

Any of the 2 situations could be dangerous. If it dumps a lot of rain, we could have flooding like South Carolina did. If it is more of a wind threat, then we could be dealing with some damage to structures and houses.


Calm down. For the "South Carolina" solution to happen, whatever this becomes, would have to park for several days over land. Not gonna happen.

Second...with the amount of wind shear in the GOM, nothing has the chance to become any sort of wind threat. Right now, you're looking at a wet day....nothing more.
Quoting 634. rmbjoe1954:



Gro,
We could be in for a hell of a ride come September-October.




It keeps going lower and lower.
Quoting 600. cRRKampen:


Stuck Pattern Syndrome. New phenomenon, result of Arctic Amplification.
If you look at the broad setting, the entire North-American plus north Atlantic plus European circulation of past week and days to come, you will see a virtual collaps of the circumpolar jet - it is hugely blocked and remainders are just stagnant alternately cyclonic or anticyclonic pools. The European floods of now are caused by a low that is even more stubborn than tiny Bonnie.
Of course any days' synopsis of last week is not unique. Blockings with a stagnant central Euro low are not unique. What is new, however, is the incredible duration of circulation patterns.
In a sense weather has become rather boring. A typical period for any type of weather in Europe would last on average 3-4 days. This century has this trending to double or triple that average.
It means it suffices to look at output like this only two or three times per month - Link
Presently, though, at the end of the periode there seems to be a pattern switch coming up. The first three charts are mere copies of what has been stuck already for a week now. The pattern is highly anomolous, hugely blocked.

The phenomenon has had me dump over three decades of meteorological experience. New regime, new, never yet seen circulation patterns.


Blocking has a lot of low frequency (multidecadal) variability and is not at all well understood. We're in a fairly blocky pattern now. The 60s were also blocky.. this without warming which really took off (again) in the 80s after a pause 50s-mid 70s (the last we'll ever see probably)

Always be careful of interpreting low frequency pattern changes or, more generally signals, from short time series.

Quoting 523. StormTrackerScott:



Good morning 27.55" @ my place for the year thanks mainly to May & January. 9.44" for May. Picked up nearly 3" last Sunday alone followed by nearly a inch Monday night. Pretty impressive "Wet" Dry Season we had huh.


Hi Scott it sure has been interesting this season. Was only able to pick up about half of that last Sunday. :)
Quoting 608. birdsrock2016:

This season will most likely be very active. My prediction: 20 named storms 14 tropical storms, 4 hurricanes, 2 major hurricanes, so
20-4-2


mine is: more than 40 named storms (in the North Atlantic basin which includes Baltic, Black, Caspian, and Aral Sea).
Quoting 635. nash36:



Calm down. For the "South Carolina" solution to happen, whatever this becomes, would have to park for several days over land. Not gonna happen.

Second...with the amount of wind shear in the GOM, nothing has the chance to become any sort of wind threat. Right now, you're looking at a wet day....nothing more.


Thanks, nash 36. I think I'm just scared because of our local news over hyping the situation. They could just be doing this in order to increase their ratings.
Quoting 601. justmehouston:



Last night it was like the end of time ...lots of lightening and loud, crazy thunder! I lost power briefly.
Yea, the rain thus far today has been pretty mild.
Been out on u-tube watching videos of the Brazos river flooding.
Keep safe and dry now.
Hopefully pureet isnt in any kind of water related trouble


Where you located?
Quoting 641. birdsrock2016:



Thanks, nash 36. I think I'm just scared because of our local news over hyping the situation. They could just be doing this in order to increase their ratings.


Surprising....

Usually, FL mets downcast the dickens out of a potential storm.
Quoting 629. Sandcat:


Time will tell. I'm west of you and don't expect any problems here but went ahead and got gas for the generator and extra water and all that just in case. I don't like lines and all that stuff gets used sooner or later anyway.


Gas breaks down over a period of a few months to a year. "Later" is not a good idea.

Crappy day in OBX

Quoting 640. Uragani:



mine is: more than 40 named storms (in the North Atlantic basin which includes Baltic, Black, Caspian, and Aral Sea).


Uragani , this could be more like for the total in the whole world's named storms, but you never know what could happen
647. Ed22
Quoting 620. daddyjames:



Ok, after several rounds of debate, and careful consideration of all relevant meteorological factors (see quotes below) - we declare this blob to definitely be . . . Olaf!



Olaf: Oh, I don't know why but I have always loved the idea of summer and sun and all things hot . . .
Kristoff: Really? I'm guessing you don't have much experience with heat.
Olaf: Nope!

"In Summer"

We are putting in a name change request to the NHC as we speak.

Edit: I have been told, by my colleague, that we forgot a relevant quote . . .
Olaf: blockq good time to stay in and cuddle, but put me in summer and I'll be a . . . . Happy Snowman!
Quoting 620. daddyjames:



Ok, after several rounds of debate, and careful consideration of all relevant meteorological factors (see quotes below) - we declare this blob to definitely be . . . Olaf!



Olaf: Oh, I don't know why but I have always loved the idea of summer and sun and all things hot . . .
Kristoff: Really? I'm guessing you don't have much experience with heat.
Olaf: Nope!

"In Summer"

We are putting in a name change request to the NHC as we speak.

Edit: I have been told, by my colleague, that we forgot a relevant quote . . .
Olaf: Winter's a good time to stay in and cuddle, but put me in summer and I'll be a . . . . Happy Snowman!
The future Colin awaits us, it could be an Invest by Friday afternoon or Saturday morning...
Quoting 644. georgevandenberghe:



Gas breaks down over a period of a few months to a year. "Later" is not a good idea.



True. At the end of the season if it hasn't been needed it goes in my truck.
Quoting 643. nash36:



Surprising....

Usually, FL mets downcast the dickens out of a potential storm.


Well, I'll just wait and see. Rain is not good for us in South Florida. El-nino has already dumped 37 inches of rain for us in South Florida . We are only supposed to have like 5 inches in winter and we had almost 30+. So , any rain that comes will most likely cause flooding for us. The ground is till trying to absorb all that rain.
Quoting 523. StormTrackerScott:



Good morning 27.55" @ my place for the year thanks mainly to May & January. 9.44" for May. Picked up nearly 3" last Sunday alone followed by nearly a inch Monday night. Pretty impressive "Wet" Dry Season we had huh.


Yes but you would (correctly) be the first to say this is a classic El Nino effect in FL.
Quoting 626. wunderkidcayman:

Looking at it now I'm more confident that NHC should circle the developing system in the SW Caribbean rather than the S-SE GOM also it should be tagged 93L soon

The most intense convection I've seen in the SW Caribbean in a good long while
NHC is expecting that mass of convection to move NW.
Quoting 650. georgevandenberghe:



Yes but you would (correctly) be the first to say this is a classic El Nino effect in FL.



EL Nino is gone
Quoting 650. georgevandenberghe:



Yes but you would (correctly) be the first to say this is a classic El Nino effect in FL.



My weather station is picking up almost 38 inches since January.
I think we will be getting a typical sheared June tropical storm to form in the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Still want to see how models handle the system this afternoon and tomorrow. I think anywhere from a 50-65 mph tropical storm is possible. Once it crosses Florida into the Atlantic waters maybe stronger. The good thing about this system is it seems like it will be a fast mover. The problem is it's bringing in tons of moisture and a lot of rain will likely fall at once in a short time. I'm going to guess there will be isolated spots that may pick up near a foot of rain or more which is not good. I live in central Florida I will be watching this one.
655. Ed22
Quoting 620. daddyjames:



Ok, after several rounds of debate, and careful consideration of all relevant meteorological factors (see quotes below) - we declare this blob to definitely be . . . Olaf!



Olaf: Oh, I don't know why but I have always loved the idea of summer and sun and all things hot . . .
Kristoff: Really? I'm guessing you don't have much experience with heat.
Olaf: Nope!

"In Summer"

We are putting in a name change request to the NHC as we speak.

Edit: I have been told, by my colleague, that we forgot a relevant quote . . .
Olaf: Winter's a good time to stay in and cuddle, but put me in summer and I'll be a . . . . Happy Snowman!
Future Colin is on it way...
Quoting 654. WeatherkidJoe2323:

I think we will be getting a typical sheared June tropical storm to form in the Gulf of Mexico early next week. Still want to see how models handle the system this afternoon and tomorrow. I think anywhere from a 50-65 mph tropical storm is possible. Once it crosses Florida into the Atlantic waters maybe stronger. The good thing about this system is it seems like it will be a fast mover. The problem is it's bringing in tons of moisture and a lot of rain will likely fall at once in a short time. I'm going to guess there will be isolated spots that may pick up near a foot of rain or more which is not good. I live in central Florida I will be watching this one.


Yep, us people in South Florida will be watching too.
Quoting 640. Uragani:



mine is: more than 40 named storms (in the North Atlantic basin which includes Baltic, Black, Caspian, and Aral Sea).

Quoting 646. birdsrock2016:



Uragani , this could be more like for the total in the whole world's named storms, but you never know what could happen

There are about 7 favorable-for-storms months ahead. It requires also that the naming squad fairly puts names to the tropical storms that will form in the Mediterranean this year.
GFS showing a lot of love for Texas . . . Not.

Bonnie is like that crazed ex girlfriend that has all kinds of restraining orders against her but yet continues to beat the dead horse.
Link
Quoting 659. Patrap:




She looks so much better than when she struck the Carolinas. Her circulation is really starting to look like a TS now.
Quoting 638. georgevandenberghe:

Blocking has a lot of low frequency (multidecadal) variability and is not at all well understood. We're in a fairly blocky pattern now. The 60s were also blocky.. this without warming which really took off (again) in the 80s after a pause 50s-mid 70s (the last we'll ever see probably)

Always be careful of interpreting low frequency pattern changes or, more generally signals, from short time series.

Meteorological experience.
Not very short term.
I was one of those geeks who spent half a life leafing through these: Link. Looking at the charts and model output and comparing stuff to historicals for almost forty years multiple times daily and sometimes full days (when I was younger, such 'full days' would count 24 hours).
Aside from this, played e.g. with Rossby waves in a setup with pans of water (thermometers. Observations. Calculations.. The works at university).
My remarks on this subject are decidely not cheap. Trust me.

The phenomenon, which I call 'Stuck Pattern Syndrome', has recently attracted scientific attention. For now the best known name is Jennifer Francis, e.g. Link

Related: Sandy's unique track. Caused by high pressure that in Dutch vernacular resided in 'verboden gebied' (forbidden terrain) - across the Cold Wall, between Newfoundland and Greenland. Of course high pressure cells ocurred there before, but always as fast moving cells on their way to assimilation in the Azores high. A century of leafing through those Reanalysis maps will demonstrate my point. (final edit, you don't have to leaf for a century...).
Quoting 655. Ed22:
Future Colin is on it way...


We ask that you refer to the blob as Olaf ;). BTW that blob should not eventually become the storm shown by the models . . . .
it looks like 91E is haveing a vary hard time
if 91E dos not start too show soon then i think the CH of it be comeing are 1st E PAC TD will get lower
12Z GFS run is coming in stronger then the last few runs.. Has a 1002 mlb. TS in the Gulf on Monday.
668. bwi
Quoting 600. cRRKampen:


Stuck Pattern Syndrome. New phenomenon, result of Arctic Amplification.
If you look at the broad setting, the entire North-American plus north Atlantic plus European circulation of past week and days to come, you will see a virtual collaps of the circumpolar jet - it is hugely blocked and remainders are just stagnant alternately cyclonic or anticyclonic pools. The European floods of now are caused by a low that is even more stubborn than tiny Bonnie.
Of course any days' synopsis of last week is not unique. Blockings with a stagnant central Euro low are not unique. What is new, however, is the incredible duration of circulation patterns.
In a sense weather has become rather boring. A typical period for any type of weather in Europe would last on average 3-4 days. This century has this trending to double or triple that average.
It means it suffices to look at output like this only two or three times per month - Link
Presently, though, at the end of the periode there seems to be a pattern switch coming up. The first three charts are mere copies of what has been stuck already for a week now. The pattern is highly anomolous, hugely blocked.

The phenomenon has had me dump over three decades of meteorological experience. New regime, new, never yet seen circulation patterns.


One anecdote does not science make, but my area (mid-atlantic coast USA)just came off roughly a full month of stuck rainy pattern. We've finally had a few days of dry the last week. Hoping it doesn't turn now to stuck full-on summer hot just yet.
Quoting 658. daddyjames:

GFS showing a lot of love for Texas . . . Not.




Gives a new meaning to Deep In The Heart of Texas
Quoting 660. washingtonian115:

Bonnie is like that crazed ex girlfriend that has all kinds of restraining orders against her but yet continues to beat the dead horse.
Link


Had a Cat 5 ex talk my roommate into letting her in. She calmly walked up the stairs as a T.D (Tuesday Dumped) and quickly roiled into a monster that consumed all my nice clothes. Cut them all up and left them in a neat little pile in the middle of my room. I'm just glad, I wasn't there, I may have not made it. Should have seen this one coming days out, all the conditions were there. It's amazing what can form when enough "Stupid Man" is sucked up into the vortex of a woman scorned. Glad that was fifteen years ago. Not a lot of rain with that one though.
We have a Tropical/Sub Tropical spinner and thats my focus on Pocus as Next week Storm is way off in time.

Adding any "Pre" to anything at this time is not how the Pro's roll, as something else could pop elsewhere and..well, it be nothing until it is something.



Models are definitely latching on to a slightly more organized system than yesterday, however they're still showing an elongated sheered mess. Given this, I expect the models to switch back-and-forth several times before genesis begins.
12Z GFS 999 mlb. before landfall on Tuesday
I am the calm inside a White Canine Cane.

My crew here.

Quoting 642. RitaEvac:



Where you located?


West Houston
Quoting 634. rmbjoe1954:



Gro,
We could be in for a hell of a ride come September-October.



Yes, this could be the big one for the Atlantic.
As 1969 and 2005 are already a comparable pair - speculate on something new (I wouldn't yet say: 'expect'). Either in number of cat. 5 systems or unseen intensity of a system or both.
Elongated, sloppy mess on the 12z GFS after landfall.



JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 645. VAbeachhurricanes:

Crappy day in OBX




Looks like it. Post-peak hurricane season is the best time to be there imo. Specifically from the fall equinox to mid-October. Not only is the weather [aside from an infrequent tropical threat] perfect but the tourist capacity is much lower than the summer to Labor Day weekend.
Quoting 668. bwi:



One anecdote does not science make, but my area (mid-atlantic coast USA)just came off roughly a full month of stuck rainy pattern. We've finally had a few days of dry the last week. Hoping it doesn't turn now to stuck full-on summer hot just yet.

Those kind of things...
I made a collection of observations before calling it names (like 'Stuck Pattern Syndrome'). First 'anecdote', July 2006 (reference: Europe/North Atlantic region). My attention came on in full during the Ukraine/Russian Inferno of 2010.
685. bwi
Quoting 683. cRRKampen:


Those kind of things...
I made a collection of observations before calling it names (like 'Stuck Pattern Syndrome'). First 'anecdote', July 2006 (reference: Europe/North Atlantic region). My attention came on in full during the Ukraine/Russian Inferno of 2010.


Sorry, I was referring to my own anecdote, not your observation. I agree with the stuck pattern hypothesis. I've been following the Arctic and I totally agree with the amplification ==> crazy jet stream ==> stuck weather patterns.
Quoting 668. bwi:



One anecdote does not science make, but my area (mid-atlantic coast USA)just came off roughly a full month of stuck rainy pattern. We've finally had a few days of dry the last week. Hoping it doesn't turn now to stuck full-on summer hot just yet.


Far from anecdotal. There is ongoing research identifying that "Ridiculously Resilient Ridges and Terribly Tenacious Troughs may become the norm."

Although it is challenging to pull the signal out from the noise.
Quoting 685. bwi:



Sorry, I was referring to my own anecdote, not your observation. I agree with the stuck pattern hypothesis. I've been following the Arctic and I totally agree with the amplification ==> crazy jet stream ==> stuck weather patterns.

I know, and my commentary on your anecdote was like 'indeed, that is the kind of thing I mean', then I added one of my own and some autobiography. It does not science make but aggregrates of such, when they seem to make a distinct trend in particular, do.
They exist around the hemisphere. Another would be the 'Ridiciously Resilient Ridge'. Yet another the 'Arctic Vortex' of some years back (gawd those names). The outrageous Scandi summer pattern two years ago, which featured patterns like today's but displaced a little to the east. The months of Atlantic jet drowning the south of the UK couple years ago, northern half of the UK last winter. The incredible - duration and intensity - East-Asian heat wave two summers ago. Et c...
Quoting 676. Patrap:

I am the calm inside a White Canine Cane.

My crew here.




This explains so much
690. vis0

Quoting 601. justmehouston:



Last night it was like the end of time ...lots of lightening and loud, crazy thunder! I lost power briefly.
Yea, the rain thus far today has been pretty mild.
Been out on u-tube watching videos of the Brazos river flooding.
Keep safe and dry now.
Hopefully pureet isnt in any kind of water related trouble
The mother in me (though a dude) is worried of barbamz  and a few others that report from Europe as to the rest of the Earth (even USofA headlines) but have not heard from in ~36 hrs.
For the others 36 hrs is not their usual limit to post but barbamz (i think even in her sleep) post fantastic international updates every few hours...
Quoting 599. rmbjoe1954:



Whereabouts are you? I am in Martin/St. Lucie area and rainfall has been overwhelming.


I live in North Brevard county (Titusville), and work at KSC, and I can confirm it has been relatively dry here the past 2 or 3 weeks. We have had a couple relatively strong, but short lived storms and not much to speak of as far as consistent rains. My avocado's could really use some fresh rain water, just had my city water tested and found out they are struggling due to the relatively high level of chlorine and salts in my water, and I don't have a well.
Quoting 606. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

faster and faster

Worse and worse
Quoting 692. MrTornadochase:


Worse and worse


Cassandras.