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CSU and TSR predict above average 2012 Atlantic hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:17 PM GMT on December 07, 2011

Above-average Atlantic hurricane activity is likely for 2012, but there is a 40% chance of an El Niño event that will keep hurricane activity below average, according to the latest seasonal forecast issued today by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). For the first time in twenty years, the CSU team is not issuing a December forecast with a specific number of tropical storms and hurricanes. Instead, they have issued a more qualitative forecast, which I think is a great idea, since their quantitative December forecasts have shown no skill. Their outlook for the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season:

15% chance: Very active season with 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
45% chance: Active season with 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
30% chance: Inactive season with 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
10% chance: Very inactive season with 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricanes

An average season has 11 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The main reason that CSU's December forecasts have shown no skill is because we have no skill predicting El Niño events nine months or more into the future. When an El Niño event occurs, bringing much above average wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, hurricane activity is substantially reduced. Making successful seasonal hurricane forecasts requires that one make a successful El Niño forecast.


Figure 1. Forecasts of El Niño conditions by 20 computer models, made in November 2011. The longest range forecasts for July-August-September (JAS) at the right side of the image show that 3 models predict weak El Niño conditions, 8 predict neutral conditions, and 1 predicts a weak La Niña. El Niño conditions are defined as occurring when sea surface temperatures in the Equatorial Pacific off the coast of South America (the "Niño 3.4 region) rise to 0.5°C above average (top red line). La Niña conditions occur when SSTs in this region fall to 0.5°C below average (blue line.) Image credit: Columbia University.

What will El Niño do in 2012?
We currently have a borderline weak to moderate La Niña episode in the Eastern Pacific, characterized by cooler than average waters off the equatorial coast of South America. While we can say with good confidence that La Niña will continue through the winter and into spring, it is highly uncertain what might happen next summer and fall to La Niña. In April and May, we typically see La Niña fade to neutral, and in many cases, a full-blown El Niño will develop by the fall. As the CSU team notes, there have been fourteen years since 1950 which had La Niña conditions that were similar to what we are experiencing this December. During the following years' hurricane season, an El Niño event developed 36% of the time, in those fourteen years. In 2012, the odds of a fall El Niño may be higher than this, since we have gone three years since the last El Niño, and these events typically occur every 3 - 7 years. Of the 12 El Niño/La Niña computer models that made November predictions for the July-August-September 2012 portion of hurricane season (Figure 1), only 3 (20%) predicted that El Niño would arrive. However, these models have no skill predicting El Niño so far in advance.

2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR), issued their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast today. TSR is calling for an above-average year, with 14.1 named storms, 6.7 hurricanes, and 3.3 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 49% chance of an above-average hurricane season, 30% chance of a near-normal season, and a 21% chance of a below normal season. TSR bases their December forecast on predictions that sea surface temperatures next fall in the tropical Atlantic will be above about 0.1°C above average, and trade wind speeds will be about 0.2 m/s slower than average. The trade wind speed prediction is based on a forecast for neutral El Niño conditions in August - September 2012.

I like how TSR puts their skill level right next to the forecast numbers: 3% skill above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 0% skill for hurricanes, and 7% skill for intense hurricanes. That's not much skill, and really, we have to wait until the June 1 forecasts by CSU, NOAA, and TSR to get a forecast with reasonable skill.


Figure 2. Forecast skill of the TSR, NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and CSU (Colorado State University) seasonal hurricane outlooks 2002-2011 as a function of lead time. NOAA does not release seasonal outlooks before late May. It is clear there is little skill in forecasting the upcoming number of Atlantic hurricanes from the prior December. Skill climbs slowly as the hurricane season approaches. Moderate skill levels are reached by early June and good skill levels are achieved from early August. Image credit: Tropical Storm Risk, Inc (TSR).

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thank you Dr. Masters.
There was a changing of the guard 22,300 miles above Earth on Tuesday as an 11-year-old weather observatory gave way to its replacement to cover the western view of the Americas.

The Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite 11, or GOES 11 for short, downlinked its final visible-light, full-disk image on Monday at 2100 GMT as it prepared for retirement.

Thanks Doc! This is exactly what I was explaining this morning. I think there is a good chance we may have a season like the one back in 2009 that only featured 9 named storms. However for right now I will stick with 11 to 13 named systems. I thnk an active season is slim next year but that doesn't mean we won't have a storm like Andrew or Iniki hit the US like 1992.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Thanks Doc! This is exactly what I was explaining this morning. I think there is a good chance we may have a season like the one back in 2009 that only featured 9 named storms. However for right now I will stick with 11 to 13 named systems. I thnk an active season is slim next year but that doesn't mean we won't have a storm like Andrew or Iniki hit the US like 1992.

That's not what I recall you predicting. Weren't you projecting another far above average year like this year?

Stick with one forecast. Although if you want to change it, I guess you have another 6 months to do so. :-)
Quoting frankfish:

That's not what I recall you predicting. Weren't you projecting another far above average year like this year?

Stick with one forecast. Although if you want to change it, I guess you have another 6 months to do so. :-)


No that wasn't me. I think you mean tropicalwxAnalyst13. We've been debating this for almost 2 months as i've been saying that I suspect El-Nino will return by the end of Hurricane season (2012). By the way I will bet you that you can't find a post of me saying that:)

Also if El-Nino returns as some forecasters believe then drought is likely to develope across Australia, Indonesia, etc.
finally a tropical post, lol. thx Doc
ADT says Hurricane Alenga
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 973.5mb/ 77.0kt

Raw T# 3.0 <----------------?
Adj T# 4.5
Final T# 4.5

Weakening Flag: OFF <---------?

Everything you learned about weather in school is irrelevant because because people are making the weather now. Particulates dumped in the Pacific Ocean airshed work their way around the globe creating worldwide stagnation. If less sun hits the ocean and there is no lift, there will be less hurricanes. The global temperature will even out and the Earth atmosphere will become a stagnant pond.
Thanks Jeff, average 2012. Phew, no worries then...
i have yet to track a nuetral year. 09 was El Nino, 10 and 11 were La Nina.
Post #8 addition

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE
Quoting SPLbeater:
i have yet to track a nuetral year. 09 was El Nino, 10 and 11 were La Nina.


This blog will go crazy next summer if it's a slow hurricane season!
O.O at Alenga

Quoting StormTracker2K:


This blog will go crazy next summer if it's a slow hurricane season!


if your referring to my futuristic activity, then you are absolutely 100% correct there lol
Quoting StormTracker2K:


This blog will go crazy next summer if it's a slow hurricane season!


What drives the blog more crazy- a slow hurricane season or an active one but with the majority of the storms evading the US?
Quoting SPLbeater:
finally a tropical post, lol. thx Doc


Paraphrasing Leon Trotsky, you may not want to care about AGW, but AGW cares about you.
Quoting jrweatherman:


What drives the blog more crazy- a slow hurricane season or an active one but with the majority of the storms evading the US?


I think both of those apply. LOL!
Quoting spbloom:


Paraphrasing Leon Trotsky, you may not want to care about AGW, but AGW cares about you.


and this means...?
Quoting SPLbeater:


and this means...?


AGW is a socialist plot? Doesn't mean that at all. Taking the reality of climate change and manipulating it for a political agenda should be criminal, and is morally wrong. That goes for people on both sides of the debate.
Ice filling in nicely over the Hudson Bay, lots of ice taking over large real estate now in lots of locations

Quoting WxGeekVA:


AGW is a socialist plot? Doesn't mean that at all. Taking the reality of climate change and manipulating it for a political agenda should be criminal, and is morally wrong. That goes for people on both sides of the debate.

You listening there, Neapolitan???
Even part of Salt Lake icing up and lakes in Minnesota

Quoting WxGeekVA:


AGW is a socialist plot? Doesn't mean that at all. Taking the reality of climate change and manipulating it for a political agenda should be criminal, and is morally wrong. That goes for people on both sides of the debate.


i have no clue there was a debate, lol.
Quoting frankfish:

You listening there, Neapolitan???


This isn't an attack on anyone. It's just my views on the issue.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


This isn't an attack on anyone. It's just my views on the issue.


and with this 'climate change' crap, which 'side' would you be on, 50 years and an increase on global AVERAGE temeratures go up 0.5 degrees. and millions of people are worried about it. pa-thetic!
Another active one AGAIN!!!! for the 3rd time?
Beaucoup gale warnings for nw Europe. Was pointed out by taistelutipu near end of previous Masters' blog.

Where can I find a good map of current surface analysis, etc. for the area?

Quoting SPLbeater:


and with this 'climate change' crap, which 'side' would you be on, 50 years and an increase on global AVERAGE temeratures go up 0.5 degrees. and millions of people are worried about it. pa-thetic!


I don't believe in just global warming. I see it as "an increase in variability and extremes". More droughts, floods, heat waves, cold snaps, blizzards, hurricanes, and violent tornadoes will occur. With every action there is a reaction. Besides, the planet is still coming out of the ice age which is why temperatures are still getting warmer on average. More data is needed before it can be determined if, what, and how much of an impact mankind is having on the climate.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I don't believe in just global warming. I see it as "an increase in variability and extremes". More droughts, floods, heat waves, cold snaps, blizzards, hurricanes, and violent tornadoes will occur. With every action there is a reaction. Besides, the planet is still coming out of the ice age which is why temperatures are still getting warmer on average. More data is needed before it can be determined if, what, and how much of an impact mankind is having on the climate.


Sounds like weather....in other words....increase in weather, more action, more to watch, with all the videos taking of it that are in everybody's hands across the globe.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I don't believe in just global warming. I see it as "an increase in variability and extremes". More droughts, floods, heat waves, cold snaps, blizzards, hurricanes, and violent tornadoes will occur. With every action there is a reaction. Besides, the planet is still coming out of the ice age which is why temperatures are still getting warmer on average. More data is needed before it can be determined if, what, and how much of an impact mankind is having on the climate.


ah. interestin. well yeah mankind might be havin a small efect. that is city locations. now see, i care bout the envoirment and all, but i wontuse a battery operated car to be nice. there is a fine line dividing regular, and over the top. alot of people are goin over the top. (excluding WxGeekVA) puting animals at #1. im probably going to take a bunch of critisizing comments for this, but God has a plan, it will be carried out regardless of what man does. every move man makes he knew would happen. alot are prophesized. and alot that he said would happen over 2k years ago, have taken place as anticipated. let the Lord lead, and you wont be worried about a thing(not saying you are now, lol)

I feel as if this topic is going political, so this is the last comment i will post concerning climate change crap.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Sounds like weather....in other words....increase in weather, more action, more to watch, with all the videos taking of it that are in everybody's hands across the globe.


Exactly.

Quoting SPLbeater:


ah. interestin. well yeah mankind might be havin a small efect. that is city locations. now see, i care bout the envoirment and all, but i wontuse a battery operated car to be nice. there is a fine line dividing regular, and over the top. alot of people are goin over the top. (excluding WxGeekVA) puting animals at #1. im probably going to take a bunch of critisizing comments for this, but God has a plan, it will be carried out regardless of what man does. every move man makes he knew would happen. alot are prophesized. and alot that he said would happen over 2k years ago, have taken place as anticipated. let the Lord lead, and you wont be worried about a thing(not saying you are now, lol)

I feel as if this topic is going political, so this is the last comment i will post concerning climate change crap.


Well said. Good thing about the United States is that you have the freedom to choose what you want and have your own opinion. And I respect everyone's viewpoint and opinion equally.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Sounds like weather....in other words....increase in weather, more action, more to watch, with all the videos taking of it that are in everybody's hands across the globe.

It only seems like more extreme weather is occurring because more video, social media, internet, and worldwide communicative technology is disseminating this data all across the globe, even to countries that are very poor.

For weather enthusiasts, this is grand.
TC 01S 183000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 971.5mb/ 79.6kt

Raw T# 3.4
Adj T# 4.6
Final T# 4.6

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE
where is HadesGodWyvern, should be here soon with the 2100Z warning lol...
If you are in SE TX, enjoy the sun today and tomm, clouds on the increase with overriding conditions. Possible widespread rain event coming
Quoting RitaEvac:
If you are in SE TX, enjoy the sun today and tomm, clouds on the increase with overriding conditions. Possible widespread rain event coming


that is exactly what we need! when is the next cold front coming through SE TX? All these forecast about how this winter will be well above avg temp wise and it sure as heck has been the opposite so far.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
3:00 AM WST December 8 2011
==============================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 15.0S 92.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.1S 94.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.5S 97.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 19.3S 100.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.4S 100.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by microwave and infra-red satellite imagery over the past 6 hours. DT difficult to assign, MET was 3.0 based on S trend. FT was 3.0 but CI held at 3.5. Intensity set to 50 knots [10 minute average].

Recent microwave imagery showed a decrease in deep convection around the low level circulation center.

The system has been in a low shear environment and CIMSS shear at 18:00 UTC was about 6 knots from the westnorthwest. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.

Numerical Weather Prediction guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the next 48 hours due to the upper trough. In the longer term the weakening system is likely to be steered towards the west southwest by a ridge and gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly pressure gradient.

Alenga may intensify a little over the next 6 hours. There is still a chance that it may reach category 3 intensity but the approach of dry air from the southwest and increasing shear are likely to limit its intensity.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


that is exactly what we need! when is the next cold front coming through SE TX? All these forecast about how this winter will be well above avg temp wise and it sure as heck has been the opposite so far.


Friday, winter doesn't start till the 21st, so it still might be dry and warm after December, hope not
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #11
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
3:00 AM WST December 8 2011
==============================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 15.0S 92.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 12 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.1S 94.5E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 17.5S 97.1E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 19.3S 100.2E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.4S 100.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by microwave and infra-red satellite imagery over the past 6 hours. DT difficult to assign, MET was 3.0 based on S trend. FT was 3.0 but CI held at 3.5. Intensity set to 50 knots [10 minute average].

Recent microwave imagery showed a decrease in deep convection around the low level circulation center.

The system has been in a low shear environment and CIMSS shear at 18:00 UTC was about 6 knots from the westnorthwest. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.

Numerical Weather Prediction guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the next 48 hours due to the upper trough. In the longer term the weakening system is likely to be steered towards the west southwest by a ridge and gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly pressure gradient.

Alenga may intensify a little over the next 6 hours. There is still a chance that it may reach category 3 intensity but the approach of dry air from the southwest and increasing shear are likely to limit its intensity.


funny how the Indian oceans' category 3 in only a Atlantic 1, lol
I'm going with 15 named storms, 7 hurricanes, and 4 major hurricanes myself.

I'll have a big blog entry out over it this afternoon or tomorrow.

Thanks Dr. Masters.
the south pacific also has that intensity format.
Is very easy to call GW, "crap" for some people, mostly for an ideology or political reasons. But the fact is that man kind is causing changes in the climate of the panet. Now, how much or How fast these changes are occuring is a serious mankind issue,since our very existence is at hands, and obviously, more studies needs to be done. All the nations, are responsible for the future of the planet, specially the industrialize nations, China, Europe and of course,the United States are included. After all we are all in the same boat.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Is very easy to call GW, "crap" for some people, mostly for an ideology or political reasons. But the fact is that man kind is causing changes in the climate of the panet. Now, how much or How fast these changes are occuring is a serious mankind issue,since our very existence is at hands, and obviously, more studies needs to be done. All the nations, are responsible for the future of the planet, specially the industrialize nations, China, Europe and of course,the United States are included. After all we are all in the same boat.


the reason so much is goin on is because man has tried to do things by himself. put God in control, you wont have problems.

And we are not even close to controling the future of this planet
Deep convection has fully wrapped around Alenga's eye. She isn't a 65mph (10min) 70mph (1min) tropical storm.
Looks like some good rains are on tap this weekend for FL as this front moves back west.

The rain for TX went POOF while FL appears to be the one that gets the overrunning rains.

Finally a little cool down coming for only about 24 hours though.

Quoting StormTracker2K:


This blog will go crazy next summer if it's a slow hurricane season!


I doubt that we will see under 13 named next year tbh, while December forecasts are usually off, they're usually accurate enough to tell us if a season will be active or inactive.

CSU in Dec. 2010 predicted for 2011:
17-9-5.
Actual Activity:
19-7-3.

CSU in Dec. 2009 predicted for 2010:
16-9-5
Actual Activity:
19-12-5.

CSU in Dec. 2008 predicted for 2009:
14-7-3
Actual Activity:
9-3-2.

2009 and 2006, the only two inactive seasons since 1997, where both predicted to be above average, but did not due to a El Nino. 2004 and 2002 had a El Nino Modoki, something that is new to the weather world. We are in a period though that it is more likely than not, warm-neutral conditions in 2012 seems the most likely to me.
TC Alenga 203000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 971.4mb/ 79.6kt

Raw T# 5.8
Adj T# 4.6
Final T# 4.6

Scene Type: EYE
Quoting SPLbeater:
TC Alenga 203000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 971.4mb/ 79.6kt

Raw T# 5.8
Adj T# 4.6
Final T# 4.6

Scene Type: EYE


Looks about right.



Very pretty, but tiny storm, I cannot wait until visible comes in a few hours.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Finally a little cool down coming for only about 24 hours though.

Yes this front is coming through with a blast, I was just outside putting up some Christmas lights & it is windy as heck, my ears are actually cold!
Tonight's forecast for the Tampa Bay Area:

Quoting GTcooliebai:
Tonight's forecast for the Tampa Bay Area:



Low of 44 here in Orlando as well but back to mid to upper 50's Thursday night.
I had a 44 mph wind gust as this front came thru about 15 minutes ago.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Low of 44 here in Orlando as well but back to mid to upper 50's Thursday night.
I wish the weather would make up its mind, either stay cold which I prefer, or stay hot. This hot and cold stuff just makes people sick.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I doubt that we will see under 13 named next year tbh, while December forecasts are usually off, they're usually accurate enough to tell us if a season will be active or inactive.

CSU in Dec. 2010 predicted for 2011:
17-9-5.
Actual Activity:
19-7-3.

CSU in Dec. 2009 predicted for 2010:
16-9-5
Actual Activity:
19-12-5.

CSU in Dec. 2008 predicted for 2009:
14-7-3
Actual Activity:
9-3-2.

2009 and 2006, the only two inactive seasons since 1997, where both predicted to be above average, but did not due to a El Nino. 2004 and 2002 had a El Nino Modoki, something that is new to the weather world. We are in a period though that it is more likely than not, warm-neutral conditions in 2012 seems the most likely to me.
if its warm neutral numbers should be around 13-16
Arlene TCR is out.

Link
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Arlene TCR is out.

Link


No change, not a surprise. Peak intensity at 65.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


No change, not a surprise. Peak intensity at 65.


is your avatar Hurricane Ophelia from this year? looks similar
Quoting SPLbeater:


is your avatar Hurricane Ophelia from this year? looks similar


Yep! Ophelia was the most photogenic storm his year in my opinion. Certainly, when Ophelia dissipated over the Lesser Antilles it was never in my opinion going to ever reach hurricane status, heck even beyond 50 again was questionable, but it became the strongest major hurricane of the season and I just thought that was impressive.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yep! Ophelia was the most photogenic storm his year in my opinion. Certainly, when Ophelia dissipated over the Lesser Antilles it was never in my opinion going to ever reach hurricane status, heck even beyond 50 again was questionable, but it became the strongest major hurricane of the season and I just thought that was impressive.


yay, i was right lol. and im with ya there, after dissapation, i figured 60mph would be a miracle lol
I was thinking 80mph for her after dissipation. TAWX mentioned something about her RIing, I said category 2 at most depending on how she departs the Caribbean region. She left the Caribbean region as a RIing category 2. XD Full credit to you TAWX for predicting that.

I don't think anyone predicted that Ophelia would reach 140mph north of Bermuda in October. Just crazy.

Ophelia would've been a horrible disaster for Bermuda had she been farther west. At least Fabian was a weakening category 3 hurricane when it past over, Ophelia was still RIing at that point that she passed by Bermuda...
Quoting yqt1001:
I was thinking 80mph for her after dissipation. TAWX mentioned something about her RIing, I said category 2 at most depending on how she departs the Caribbean region. She left the Caribbean region as a RIing category 2. XD Full credit to you TAWX for predicting that.


I figured intensification was possible, because that area which Ophelia was predicted to move into was a sweet spot this year, vertical instability was normal to above normal there compared to the rest of the Atlantic, as well as shear was low. Many of our storms formed in that area off of troughs, which are usually very fragile to develop. Katia and Maria both also strengthened in that area.

However, Ophelia managed to align itself with a trough that was pushing it out to sea in a way that it provided ventilation in that sweet spot area, and naturally even though with less than optimal SST's and quickly moving northward in October, Ophelia rapidly intensified to a power major hurricane.
I can't believe it is snowing here!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yep! Ophelia was the most photogenic storm his year in my opinion. Certainly, when Ophelia dissipated over the Lesser Antilles it was never in my opinion going to ever reach hurricane status, heck even beyond 50 again was questionable, but it became the strongest major hurricane of the season and I just thought that was impressive.


i like them big hurricanes with the eye thats over 40 miles wide, so Katia was my favorite this year(in the Atlantic)
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Low of 44 here in Orlando as well but back to mid to upper 50's Thursday night.


It will not be in the mid to upper 50's tomorrow night, disregard those forecast numbers.
Quoting Jedkins01:


It will not be in the mid to upper 50's tomorrow night, disregard those forecast numbers.

The National Weather Service is calling for mid to upper 50s tomorrow night.

Unless you're wanting somebody to disregard the National Weather Service....
Quoting yqt1001:
I was thinking 80mph for her after dissipation. TAWX mentioned something about her RIing, I said category 2 at most depending on how she departs the Caribbean region. She left the Caribbean region as a RIing category 2. XD Full credit to you TAWX for predicting that.

I don't think anyone predicted that Ophelia would reach 140mph north of Bermuda in October. Just crazy.

Ophelia would've been a horrible disaster for Bermuda had she been farther west. At least Fabian was a weakening category 3 hurricane when it past over, Ophelia was still RIing at that point that she passed by Bermuda...

lol, thanks.

I thought a Category 2 hurricane was possible, maybe even Category 3. But I must say, I didn't expect Ophelia to reach Category 4 status. XD
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I wish the weather would make up its mind, either stay cold which I prefer, or stay hot. This hot and cold stuff just makes people sick.


Its normal for it to fluctuate between warm and cool this time of year in Florida. When we get into January and February, the cold is more continuous, but its still very much up in down with temps. Think about this, in Florida we are very close to the warm and moderate Caribbean. We can get cold with frontal passages but when the wind shifts out of the south it warms back up ahead of the next front.

This happens every year in Florida, so if its making people sick either they haven't lived here long or they forget it happens every year lol.


However, I think it has become more pronounced in recent years, frontal systems I believe are getting stronger. Winters have consistently gotten colder and windier the past several years as apposed to how they used to be growing up here. Likely its due to strong troughing/powerful frontal systems sweeping through in the winter.
67. Take that image down of Katia down stat, its ruining the bandwidth on here.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The National Weather Service is calling for mid to upper 50s tomorrow night.

Unless you're wanting somebody to disregard the National Weather Service....
I live in Central Florida, by the coast for that matter, and they have 53 for my spot. Further inland they are showing 47 to 50 and low 40's north. Not mid to upper 50's It won't be that warm. Unless you're right along the atlantic coastal areas.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
67. Take that image down of Katia down stat, its ruining the bandwidth on here.

I had to hide that image, slowed my computer wayy down.
Quoting Jedkins01:
I live in Central Florida, by the coast for that matter, and they have 53 for my spot. Further inland they are showing 47 to 50 and low 40's north. Not mid to upper 50's It won't be that warm. Unless you're right along the atlantic coastal areas.


(Click image to enlarge)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I had to hide that image, slowed my computer wayy down.


got an HP? xD lol, its down
Tampa forecast for tonight from wunderground

Tonight: Mostly cloudy with a slight chance of showers in the evening then becoming partly cloudy. Colder. Lows in the mid 40s near the coast and around 40 inland. North winds 10 to 20 mph with gusts to around 30 mph in the evening. Chance of rain 20 percent. Wind chill readings around 35.
As noted on previous blog, a proper windstorm (FU-Berlin seems to be calling it 'Friedhelm'. Quite Teutonic) is coming into the UK tomorrow, looking like around a 958mb storm with up to 90mph winds. Usually they cross to the north, but this one is going right over.



Might go higher or lower depending. Red warnings are very rare, the last one I remember seeing was last year for snow and one other time for a tornado. I think part of the warnings are due to where the winds will hit as opposed to the speeds (there was a storm with gusts up to 95mph a couple of weeks ago, but that was restricted to the western isles. This is the prime Scottish commuter belt).

Been a little while since we've had strong lows in succession so early.
I know no one cares about the SHem, but this cannot be a 60mph (10-min), 75mph (1-min) cyclone.



Otherwise, it's nice to see something major going on in the tropics.
Quoting yqt1001:
I know no one cares about the SHem, but this cannot be a 60mph (10-min), 75mph (1-min) cyclone.



Otherwise, it's nice to see something major going on in the tropics.


i care about the SHem. i cre about all the tropics, im anticipating development in the SW Pacific, cuz thats my #2 favorite basin :D

I agree. looks more of a 100mph Cat 2, give or take 5 mph
My 2012 Atlantic hurricane season forecast in graph form:

Quoting yqt1001:
I know no one cares about the SHem, but this cannot be a 60mph (10-min), 75mph (1-min) cyclone.



Otherwise, it's nice to see something major going on in the tropics.

I don't track these systems, but just judging by it's satellite image, it's around 90-100 mph (1-min) or so.
As WxGeekVA noted in #59, the Tropical Cyclone Report for Arlene has been released. Also as noted, there weren't many changes. The only real change is that Arlene's total ACE was raised from 1.6275 to 1.8775 (the storm existed for about six more hours than previously thought). That's not much, to be sure, but it was nevertheless enough to jump the storm from 15th to 12th place on the season's ACE list, leapfrogging Harvey, Lee, and Gert.

That's eight down. Still to come: Jose, Lee, Emily, Bret, Sean, Maria, Rina, Philippe, Ophelia, Irene, and Katia.
Quoting yqt1001:
I know no one cares about the SHem, but this cannot be a 60mph (10-min), 75mph (1-min) cyclone.



Otherwise, it's nice to see something major going on in the tropics.

I care about them , Shem storms can get very interesting and when you got nothing else to track you might as well track these ones!:)
2012 a neutral year eh? ... hmmm wasnt a particular season neutral? Something bad happens every 12 year in the century:

1712 - Great Northern war
1812 - War of 1812
1912 - Titanic sinks
2012 - ?

although I don't believe in this "doomsday" thing, it is quite interesting that all these happened a century a part and they were the big news story of their respective centuries. One other interesting note... they are all man made disasters (no acts of nature)
Quoting Dragod66:
2012 a neutral year eh? ... hmmm wasnt a particular season neutral? Something bad happens every 12 year in the century:

1712 - Great Northern war
1812 - War of 1812
1912 - Titanic sinks
2012 - ?

although I don't believe in this "doomsday" thing, it is quite interesting that all these happened a century a part and they were the big news story of their respective centuries. One other interesting note... they are all man made disasters (no acts of nature)


the titanic sunk when it scraped an iceberg...and it SUNK. you know before they put the titanic in the water, some men scratched on the bottom of the hull"not even God can sink this ship" and look what happened. but with the iceberg, you oughta call that one 50/50 LOL
Quoting SPLbeater:


the titanic sunk when it scraped an iceberg...and it SUNK. you know before they put the titanic in the water, some men scratched on the bottom of the hull"not even God can sink this ship" and look what happened. but with the iceberg, you oughta call that one 50/50 LOL


you make a good point, buy.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:


(Click image to enlarge)



Well the NWS in Melbourne tends to have a warm bias compared to surrounding offices. The NWS in Ruskin has colder numbers tomorrow night. I'll bet on them being right as apposed to the warmer numbers. This is a strong frontal system. Yes there will be quick wind shift but it wont be that much warmer, unless you live on the Atlantic Coast, which will be moderated by winds shifting to northeast over night.
Next year's naming list --

Interesting Fact: The name 'Beryl' has never been used as a hurricane before.

Alberto | Beryl | Chris | Debby | Ernesto | Florence
Gordon | Helene | Isaac | Joyce | Kirk | Leslie
Michael | Nadine | Oscar |Patty | Rafael | Sandy | Tony | Valerie | William
Quoting Dragod66:
2012 a neutral year eh? ... hmmm wasnt a particular season neutral? Something bad happens every 12 year in the century:

1712 - Great Northern war
1812 - War of 1812
1912 - Titanic sinks
2012 - ?

although I don't believe in this "doomsday" thing, it is quite interesting that all these happened a century a part and they were the big news story of their respective centuries. One other interesting note... they are all man made disasters (no acts of nature)


"The life of man, solitary, poor, nasty, brutish, and short.". - Hobbes

Something went down pretty much every year, particularly the further back you go. 2012 is looking like something related to economic problems, if any such cataclysm occurs.

Btw, watched the last episode of Frozen Planet. While it discusses climate effects, it only mentions global warming once and certainly nothing about causes or such. It was simply illustrating what is occurring.
There are now 379 Giorni day's until the 2012 Winter Solstice.

Enjoy your evening.
Wow the low right now entering western Virginia is really starting to bomb out, winds increasing here to almost 25-30 sustained and Tstorms really intensifying moving across the state.
Quoting Dragod66:
2012 a neutral year eh? ... hmmm wasnt a particular season neutral? Something bad happens every 12 year in the century:

1712 - Great Northern war
1812 - War of 1812
1912 - Titanic sinks
2012 - ?

although I don't believe in this "doomsday" thing, it is quite interesting that all these happened a century a part and they were the big news story of their respective centuries. One other interesting note... they are all man made disasters (no acts of nature)


Link
Norfolk NEXRAD Radar

Base Reflectivity 0.50° Elevation


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Wow the low right now entering western Virginia is really starting to bomb out, winds increasing here to almost 25-30 sustained and Tstorms really intensifying moving across the state.


Low is located approximately over Richmond right now, with a pressure about 999 MB

Quoting Dragod66:
2012 a neutral year eh? ... hmmm wasnt a particular season neutral? Something bad happens every 12 year in the century:

1712 - Great Northern war
1812 - War of 1812
1912 - Titanic sinks
2012 - ?

although I don't believe in this "doomsday" thing, it is quite interesting that all these happened a century a part and they were the big news story of their respective centuries. One other interesting note... they are all man made disasters (no acts of nature)


1812 was also the year that Napoleon took his fateful march onto Moscow. That pretty much trumps anything else that happened in 1812.
All it needs is a pocket of lower wind shear, which is hard to come by off-season.


Quoting WxGeekVA:


Low is located approximately over Richmond right now, with a pressure about 999 MB



The low behind that one is the dominant/becoming the dominant one.

Quoting JLPR2:
All it needs is a pocket of lower wind shear, which is hard to come by off-season.



Impressive...
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


The low behind that one is the dominant/becoming the dominant one.



Yes it will, but hopefully more to the east so there can be more snow here just West of DC
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Finally a little cool down coming for only about 24 hours though.



Your memory must be short lived, we have had many cool periods this Fall besides this one that is arriving.

Also, the brunt of the cold air will be short lived. But we should see nice temps through the extended with highs low to mid 70's and lows in the 50's. So, it at least won't warm up to highs in the low 80's with humidity at all.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yes it will, but hopefully more to the east so there can be more snow here just West of DC


lol the fact its so close and its still only fall bodes well for us!
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Yes it will, but hopefully more to the east so there can be more snow here just West of DC


dont plan on much of anything bud...youll get some late night back end flakes that wont stick...i found it funny that some folks down around the richmond area, thought they had a legit chance of snow tonight...really?...no...and the cold air is taking its sweet time getting over the apps...so the i95 corridor has nothing to worry about...
....Geaux Sneaux!


Quoting watchingnva:


dont plan on much of anything bud...youll get some late night back end flakes that wont stick...i found it funny that some folks down around the richmond area, thought they had a legit chance of snow tonight...really?...no...and the cold air is taking its sweet time getting over the apps...so the i95 corridor has nothing to worry about...


But Boston's a different story lol.
Quoting SPLbeater:


im probably going to take a bunch of critisizing comments for this, but God has a plan, it will be carried out regardless of what man does. every move man makes he knew would happen. alot are prophesized. and alot that he said would happen over 2k years ago, have taken place as anticipated. let the Lord lead, and you wont be worried about a thing(not saying you are now, lol)
I won't criticize you, but I will laugh at you.

"Yeah lets just jump off this cliff because God has a plan and we don't have to be worried about a thing."

Brilliant. I guess I am criticizing you now, but saying we don't have to worry about anything because God has it all planned out is quite literally ridiculous. That statement is supported by absolutely no facts or evidence.
Quoting weatherbro:


But Boston's a different story lol.


do what?

boston is getting lots of nice cold rain...lol
Quoting TomTaylor:
I won't criticize you, but I will laugh at you.

"Yeah lets just jump off this cliff because God has a plan and we don't have to be worried about a thing."

Brilliant. I guess I am criticizing you now, but saying we don't have to worry about anything because God has it all planned out is quite literally ridiculous.

Exactly.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
The rain for TX went POOF while FL appears to be the one that gets the overrunning rains.



I think there waaay overdoing it lol.;)

The southeast ridge is steadily weakening as I speak. Plus another shortwave trough is expected this weekend which I believe should correspond by developing a low in the southeast Bahama's and move it NE-wards.

If anything, the Keys might get some good rains on Friday(because of a stalled-out front near them in the Straights) with an isolated shower chance for Miami. Otherwise I expect Central Florida to have lovely weather Friday-Wednesday with temps in the 70's and dewpoints around 50.

I predict blocking will start to form around the 20th-23d of this month! I think that's when the East will see it's big pattern change! If so, then 1996 and perhaps 1989 are good anologs on a warm beginning of December followed by a brutal chill by the Winter Solstice/Christmas!

Now as for Tomorrow morning, I expect dewpoints in Orlando to drop to the low 30's(I wouldn't even doubt to see a few 20's before the wind shift). I love those kind of dewpoints! They feel great!:)
Quoting Grothar:
I can't believe it is snowing here!


Grothar, did you get locked in the walk-in cooler again?
SPLbeater~ Saw an interesting article today..

A climatologist in West Texas, Katharine Hayhoe, takes on skeptics with scientific data and her own faith as an evangelical Christian..


This was my fav quote of hers..

"People ask me if I believe in global warming. I tell them, 'No, I don't,' because belief is faith; faith is the evidence of things not seen," Hayhoe said. "Science is evidence of things seen. To have an open mind, we have to use the brains that God gave us to look at the science."
As of late yesterday GOES-15 replaced GOES-11 as the operational GOES-West satellite. Important differences that users of the new GOES-15 imagery should be aware of:

1. Improved water vapor channel (Imager channel 3)
2. Slightly different visible channel (Imager chanel 1)
3. 13.3 µm IR (Imager channel 6) replaces the 12.0 µm IR (Imager channel 5)
4. Improved Image Navigation and Registration (INR)
5. Shorter image outages during Spring and Fall season “eclipse periods”
6. Less noise on many of the Sounder channels


Quoting Patrap:
Mayan's,,..



Mysterious planet-sized object spotted near mercury





So looks like the Starship Enterprise..
Quoting Skyepony:
"People ask me if I believe in global warming. I tell them, 'No, I don't,' because belief is faith; faith is the evidence of things not seen," Hayhoe said. "Science is evidence of things seen. To have an open mind, we have to use the brains that God gave us to look at the science."


How ironic.

First visible of Alenga is up:
116. DDR
I can see some more flooding and more landslips for T&T,this wet pattern looks very persistent,1.2inches here today.
117. DDR
According to the models its just getting started,not good.
Quoting Patrap:
Mayan's,,..



Mysterious planet-sized object spotted near mercury





Death Star has now entered the Earth system,

In range - 379 days.

Approx ~ Dec. 21st, 2012.
Quoting Skyepony:
SPLbeater~ Saw an interesting article today..

A climatologist in West Texas, Katharine Hayhoe, takes on skeptics with scientific data and her own faith as an evangelical Christian..


This was my fav quote of hers..

"People ask me if I believe in global warming. I tell them, 'No, I don't,' because belief is faith; faith is the evidence of things not seen," Hayhoe said. "Science is evidence of things seen. To have an open mind, we have to use the brains that God gave us to look at the science."
like the way she put that. Faith is the belief in the unseen, and science is the evidence and understanding of what has been seen...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Exactly.


thanks for quoting this, was at church studying Christ. i guess persecution will come daily, but considering the fact that i would stand for the Lord till death, and even after, doesnt bother me. all i can say to you Tom Taylor, is that when i said that; i wasnt joking. God has a plan, and no humanism plan will stop it. what happens each day, God knew it would happen long before it occured. dozens of prophesies have been fulfilled, and more to come. the end isnt far away Tom. bowing now to the Lord now would be the better decision, thenbowing at judgment in humiliation before being cast down to the lake of fire.

Im praying for you
Quoting yqt1001:


How ironic.

First visible of Alenga is up:

Probably around 90 kts. (1-min.) right now, which translates to a 105 mph Category 2 hurricane on our Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Quoting SPLbeater:


thanks for quoting this, was at church studying Christ. i guess persecution will come daily, but considering the fact that i would stand for the Lord till death, and even after, doesnt bother me. all i can say to you Tom Taylor, is that when i said that; i wasnt joking. God has a plan, and no humanism plan will stop it. what happens each day, God knew it would happen long before it occured. dozens of prophesies have been fulfilled, and more to come. the end isnt far away Tom. bowing now to the Lord now would be the better decision, thenbowing at judgment in humiliation before being cast down to the lake of fire.

Im praying for you

I worry about how serious you are over your religion sometimes...
Quoting Skyepony:
SPLbeater~ Saw an interesting article today..

A climatologist in West Texas, Katharine Hayhoe, takes on skeptics with scientific data and her own faith as an evangelical Christian..


This was my fav quote of hers..

"People ask me if I believe in global warming. I tell them, 'No, I don't,' because belief is faith; faith is the evidence of things not seen," Hayhoe said. "Science is evidence of things seen. To have an open mind, we have to use the brains that God gave us to look at the science."


the so called 'gloabl warming' i do not beleive in. because, you see, over 50 years, the AVERAGE temeratures for the ENTIRE GLOBE have gon up in AVERAGE half a degree. and yet people call that a rapid warm up. it doesnt sell with me, i said this earlier i will repeat it as nice as possible-

God has a plan. everything that has happened, he said it would and knew it would happen, becuase God has no flaws. he died for our sins on the cross at calvary. then rose again on the third day(designated easter) so that we could have the choice to repent, and go to heaven when we die physically. if we do not accept this free gift, we will perish abd burn in hell eternally. forever. but if we do accept this free gift, we can go to heaven with Jesus Christ, and spend our spiritual lives there forever. eternally.

Jesus says in John 14:2, "In my Father's house are many mansions; if it were not so, i would have told you. I go to prepare a place for you"

Quoting SPLbeater:


thanks for quoting this, was at church studying Christ. i guess persecution will come daily, but considering the fact that i would stand for the Lord till death, and even after, doesnt bother me. all i can say to you Tom Taylor, is that when i said that; i wasnt joking. God has a plan, and no humanism plan will stop it. what happens each day, God knew it would happen long before it occured. dozens of prophesies have been fulfilled, and more to come. the end isnt far away Tom. bowing now to the Lord now would be the better decision, thenbowing at judgment in humiliation before being cast down to the lake of fire.

Im praying for you
Why are you praying for me if the lord already has everything planned out?

Hypocrite.

Not gonna even waste anymore time on you. So stubborn and ignorant I might as well be talking to a brick wall. Yet you're a hypocrite too, so that might suggest that you are on a lower level than a brick wall.
Saturday's Lunar Eclipse Will Include 'Impossible' Sight
by Joe Rao, SPACE.com Skywatching Columnist
Date: 07 December 2011 Time: 03:21 PM ET


For most places in the United States and Canada, there will be a chance to observe an unusual effect, one that celestial geometry seems to dictate can't happen. The little-used name for this effect is a "selenelion" (or "selenehelion") and occurs when both the sun and the eclipsed moon can be seen at the same time

is that a nor Ester moveing up the E coast right now?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Why are you praying for me if the lord already has everything planned out?

Hypocrite.

Not gonna even waste anymore time on you. So stubborn and ignorant I might as well be talking to a brick wall. Yet you're a hypocrite too, so that might suggest that you are on a lower level than a brick wall.


intercession prayer is good. as it is better to give then to receive. God has everything planned, yes. but that does not mean i will sit back and do nothing. i am a faithful Christian and servant to the Lord, and i will do everything in my power to bring more poeple to Christ.

I will remember you in my prayers Tom.
Quoting Tazmanian:
is that a nor Ester moveing up the E coast right now?



Dvorak Major Cyclone Alenga 080030Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 949.8mb/ 107.2kt

Raw T# 4.4
Adj T# 4.9
Final T# 5.5

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Weakening FLag: ON


Quoting SPLbeater:


 i guess persecution will come daily
Oh please. Try being a bisexual atheist, and THEN come talk to me about persecution.

You Christians have it easy. Always have.
Quoting Ameister12:

Low-end Category 3/Solid Category 3 hurricane status.
Quoting KoritheMan:

Oh please. Try being a bisexual atheist, and THEN come talk to me about persecution.

You Christians have it easy. Always have.


Hey! I'm not alone! :D
Quoting SPLbeater:


i will stand for the Lord always, as Christ himself said that Christians will be hated for their faith in him.

Side note, Christianity is not a religion. it is a relationship with Jesus Christ as our personal saviour.

Christianity is a monotheistic religion.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #12
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
9:00 AM WST December 8 2011
==============================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Three (976 hPa) located at 16.2S 94.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 70 with gusts of 100 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 19 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
====================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
80 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/4.5/D1.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.8S 97.7E - 65 knots (CAT 3)
24 HRS: 19.3S 99.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 21.0S 102.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 22.2S 102.6E - 25 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by microwave and infra-red satellite imagery over the past 6 hours. DT has averaged 5.0 over the last 3 images based on an EIR pattern. MET is consistently 4.0 [based on D trend] and PAT 4.5. FT and CI set to 4.5. This is generally consistent with ADT though ADT has an increasing trend towards 5.0 in recent images. No AMSU/SATCON available since 1400 Z. No recent ascat pass. Vmax is set at 70 knots 10-min.

Recent microwave imagery shows development of the system around a reasonably well defined eye.

The system has been in a low shear environment and CIMSS shear at 0000 UTC was about 8 knots from the westnorthwest. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.

NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the next 48 hours due to the upper trough. In the longer term the weakening system may be steered towards the west southwest by a developing ridge well to the south. Gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly pressure gradient.

Alenga is now near its maximum forecast intensity and should begin to weaken beyond the next 12 hours as the system moves southeast into a high shear environment with cooler SST's. The mid-level trough has also brought dry air in close proximity which may also weaken the system if it is entrained into the core.
Quoting yqt1001:


Hey! I'm not alone! :D


:D
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Christianity is a monotheistic religion.


I always thought polytheistic religions were more interesting, anyway.
On a weather-related note, I'm almost done with my report on Irwin. I'm up to the part where he becomes a hurricane.
Did anyone notice that the CSU doesn't predict that there will be 6 hurricanes it completely skips that number even though it's the seasonal average
also it looks like Alenga is a cat 4 now
Quoting Tazmanian:
is that a nor Ester moveing up the E coast right now?


inland low...
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Did anyone notice that the CSU doesn't predict that there will be 6 hurricanes it completely skips that number even though it's the seasonal average
also it looks like Alenga is a cat 4 now

Because their December forecasts showed little skills, they decided to take a more "professional" approach and not release actual numbers, but instead, the major factors that will go into the 2012 AHS.
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Did anyone notice that the CSU doesn't predict that there will be 6 hurricanes it completely skips that number even though it's the seasonal average
also it looks like Alenga is a cat 4 now


I doubt Alenga is a Category 4. Just my opinion, of course. :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I always thought polytheistic religions were more interesting, anyway.

Polyurethane ones, even more so.

There have been some Unbelievable comments here today.
Just thought I'd add another....
Quoting KoritheMan:


I doubt Alenga is a Category 4. Just my opinion, of course. :)

Maybe on the Australian scale, but not the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale one. ;)

Alenga is currently a Category 3 on the Australian scale, but only a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
Quoting pottery:

Polyurethane ones, even more so.

There have been some Unbelievable comments here today.
Just thought I'd add another....


It's been like this for a few days now.

But I like your comment. :)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe on the Australian scale, but not the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale one. ;)

Alenga is currently a Category 3 on the Australian scale, but only a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.


I was referring to the SSHS.
Quoting KoritheMan:


I was referring to the SSHS.


Although it looks like a Category 2 (SSHS) to me.
Quoting SPLbeater:


im sorry but anything other then a relationship with Jesus Christ is wrong. im praying for you to

I didn't say I didn't have one, but I'm not going to say I have one either.

I don't really have a religion.
Quoting SPLbeater:


i will stand for the Lord always, as Christ himself said that Christians will be hated for their faith in him.

Side note, Christianity is not a religion. it is a relationship with Jesus Christ as our personal saviour.


I think it's time for you to go to a different site, bub. This is not a site for religion, yet you constantly talk about it.
Sorry for straying off topic here, but I have something to say.

I go to a catholic school. I am confirmed into the french version of christianity. I am an antitheist (a fancy term for having an opposition to religion).

In my religion class (I pick this class because I've known the kids in it for many years), only 3 of them go to church once a month. I doubt any of them go once a week. Most of the kids there don't care about religion, and some of us are hardcore atheists (5-6 I would say).

Religion is a dying fad. It made sense before science disproved it. Really, go back to the 1700s when religion was the most popular. History only went back to Egypt, so anything that could make sense of the pre-human history was accepted. Today, we know more about the history before humans, so we have enough evidence to prove either way that God does and doesn't exist. Atheism, especially here in Canada, is a growing fad. Even in my school, atheists are considered cooler than the religious freaks that devote their lives to the church.

Why I am antitheist? Religion has killed hundreds of millions of innocent people. Religion is a large portion of wars and genocides. Yes, there have been modern conflicts on other things, but religion is the backbone of most wars and slaughterings of people.

Quoting caneswatch:


I think it's time for you to go to a different site, bub. This is not a site for religion, yet you constantly talk about it.


Good evening, Conner. How are you?
thanks for sharing.I like it.slewing ring
Quoting ysfabian:
thanks for sharing.I like it.slewing ring


Haha! I love it when I trigger spambots.
Quoting caneswatch:


I think it's time for you to go to a different site, bub. This is not a site for religion, yet you constantly talk about it.


as long as the Lord doesnt tell em to leave here i stay. i love weather, i look to be a meteorologist. i bring up Christianity, and Christ because its only the right thing to do. in this day in time, worship isnt standard like it was when the founding fathers were around.

Just because sin is legalized, doesnt make it right.

and i would love to talk about the tropics, but i will not just let false things concerning the opposite of bible teaching slide. :)
Quoting caneswatch:


I think it's time for you to go to a different site, bub. This is not a site for religion, yet you constantly talk about it.

What's up Conner?
Quoting yqt1001:
Sorry for straying off topic here, but I have something to say.

I go to a catholic school. I am confirmed into the french version of christianity. I am an antitheist (a fancy term for having an opposition to religion).

In my religion class (I pick this class because I've known the kids in it for many years), only 3 of them go to church once a month. I doubt any of them go once a week. Most of the kids there don't care about religion, and some of us are hardcore atheists (5-6 I would say).

Religion is a dying fad. It made sense before science disproved it. Really, go back to the 1700s when religion was the most popular. History only went back to Egypt, so anything that could make sense of the pre-human history was accepted. Today, we know more about the history before humans, so we have enough evidence to prove either way that God does and doesn't exist. Atheism, especially here in Canada, is a growing fad. Even in my school atheists are considered cooler than the religious freaks that devote their lives to the church.

Why I am antitheist? Religion has killed hundreds of millions of innocent people. Religion is a large portion of wars and genocides. Yes, there have been modern conflicts on other things, but religion is the backbone of most wars and slaughterings of people.



I also consider myself a hardcore atheist, in the sense that I am firmly established in my convictions. However, I will not definitively claim that there is no god. There is an important difference between believing there is no god, and lacking belief in god. The former is considered strong atheism, and the latter weak atheism. I identify myself with the latter, since we really don't have any proof either way. Now, these terms may seem like meaningless wordplay to you (and to others as well), which is fine, but I've studied theology long enough to know that they have a coherent meaning.

More to the point, science hasn't disproved religion anymore than religion has debased or falsified science's claims. It is true that scientific claims are pretty much inherently better than religious claims simply because of the way the scientific method works (repeatability, something religion sorely lacks). However, any intellectually honest person would freely admit that we lack proof in the direction of god(s), both for and against. The way I see it, there's no real proof for god(s), but there's also no proof against it, either. I merely disbelieve because of a lack of reason to believe (I need evidence). Also, it's important to remember that, although the best religion has to offer is anecdotal evidence, something that doesn't hold up very well as evidence to others, that's all the person experiencing it needs. Actually, that's one of the main reasons I am an atheist. Were I to actually experience something I genuinely deemed to be supernatural in nature, chances are I would believe, provided all other naturalistic explanations were fairly and objectively evaluated and fell short of a satisfactory answer.

Also, if I may, why are you an antitheist? I consider myself anti-Christianity and anti-Islam, because I feel they do more harm than good to a society, but I would be a fool to assert the same of all religions. Buddhism, for example, is one of the more peaceful religions. It's not fair to lump in all religion with monotheistic, or Abrahamic ones.

Quoting SPLbeater:


Just because sin is legalized, doesnt make it right.
Hey look guys! He just claims he wants to live in a theocracy!
Quoting KoritheMan:

Hey look guys! He just claims he wants to live in a theocracy!

Kori...drop the way you're talking to him..
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Exactly.



Well said. Good thing about the United States is that you have the freedom to choose what you want and have your own opinion. And I respect everyone's viewpoint and opinion equally.


Freedom is limited by the consequences that society is willing to accept. Of course, a society is also free to be ignorant of, or ignore, said consequences (usually with unpleasant results).

More on topic, climate science isn't about viewpoints or opinions. Opinions mean nothing in the scientific community. You either back up your claims with solid research, or you aren't worth listening to. It doesn't matter if you're a certifiable genius or not. If you can't construct a solid case then you're not going to get anywhere.

The "debates" in the public sphere are about political/ideological viewpoints and opinions, not scientific research. Only a small percentage of the population has the education to understand the complexities involved in any of the hard sciences, let alone a science that combines many of those disciplines together. Corporations and politicians have taken advantage of that fact countless times in the past by using appeals to emotion and related tactics to stop or reduce action being taken that would negatively impact them (see smoking, asbestos, ozone hole, acid rain, national budget, taxes, etc.).

For climate science, the current body of accepted/reviewed scientific evidence and research are in overwhelming agreement that the planet is warming and that we are primarily responsible. The research also shows that there will be consequences of this warming.

That's what the science says. It's not a viewpoint. It's not an opinion. It's cold hard scientific facts.

People are free to disagree of course, but unless they have reputable peer-reviewed research backing up their claims, then they are just stating opinion. And opinions count for little in science.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Kori...drop the way you're talking to him..


I have no intentions of respecting someone who does not respect others. Respect is earned, it is not given.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Also, if I may, why are you an antitheist? I consider myself anti-Christianity and anti-Islam, because I feel they do more harm than good to a society, but I would be a fool to assert the same of all religions. Buddhism, for example, is one of the more peaceful religions. It's not fair to lump in all religion with monotheistic, or Abrahamic ones.


Now, I don't hate religions, I just oppose the idea of religions. Judaism is my personal choice of religion, Buddhism is a nice religion too, but I don't fully agree with it. I'm not a huge fan of Christianity mostly because Christians tend to try to convert every single person who doesn't agree with them. I haven't looked much into Islam, but from what I've heard I seem to favour it a bit.

Back onto topic...I am antitheist because I oppose the idea of religions and how it is another way for people to kill over. You don't have to go much farther than Israel to find a shining example of religion and wars it has caused. You don't have to go that far back in history to find 2 examples of religion related genocides in a span of 20 years (in which millions have died). You don't have to go far back in time to find atrocities because of things completely unrelated to religion though too (Holodomor comes into mind). So, really I'm not a religion hater and people can have their own choices of religion and I'll respect that, I just oppose religion as an idea.

Tl;dr version: I oppose religion because it separates humans.
Religion is a system. Belief is an affirmation. Christianity is a lifestyle.

Truth is the entirety of the bigger picture. We individuals only have small pieces of the larger whole. Even parts that appear mutually exclusive are interconnected.

Life is a gift. Love is an attitude. Conversion is unverified.

NEXT TOPIC!

I choose AGW. :)

Quoting yqt1001:


I just oppose the idea of religions.
But why? Those atrocities you mentioned were not committed by every world religion. Perhaps instead of saying "religion" (which can give off the valid perception that you are generalizing), you should say Christianity.

Unless you meant to say that you oppose the idea of organized religion, in which case I agree.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Good evening, Conner. How are you?


Good evening, Kori. I'm just relaxing for the night. How about you?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What's up Conner?


Not much Cody, how about you?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I didn't say I didn't have one, but I'm not going to say I have one either.

I don't really have a religion.

Hopefully he will pray that one day you will have a better face.
Quoting 12george1:

Hopefully he will pray that one day you will have a better face.

George, really? :P

Quoting caneswatch:


Good evening, Kori. I'm just relaxing for the night. How about you?
I'm okay. Writing my report on Irwin. Then all that's left is Jova, TD12E, and Kenneth, and I can finally release this accursed blog I've been working on since October to the public.
Quoting caneswatch:


Not much Cody, how about you?

Good, except George keeps talking about my face. :(

lol.
174. patb
So..is it raining or pouring?
Quoting KoritheMan:


Unless you meant to say that you oppose the idea of organized religion, in which case I agree.


I do mean organized religion, mostly yes. I haven't studied the minor religions enough to have an opinion on those, though. However most of the ones I have studied have a rampant homophobia which is a huge turn off for my opinion on most religions.
Quoting 12george1:

Hopefully he will pray that one day you will have a better face.


lol, thats uneccessary xD. im sure TAwx13 is a fine man, just....lost.
Quoting SPLbeater:


lol, thats uneccessary xD. im sure TAwx13 is a fine man, just....lost.


Lost? I'm not definitely not lost.

We know each other by the way, so it's all good.
That Nor'easter is expected to bomb out over Labrador. Will likely shift the polar vortex between Hudson Low and it.

TRACKING THE ARCTIC POLAR VORTEX (GFS runs) - find a centre of rotation for various winter lows that travel around it in counterclockwise fashion; west of the vortex is usually a surface cold spot.
Quoting KoritheMan:

I'm okay. Writing my report on Irwin. Then all that's left is Jova, TD12E, and Kenneth, and I can finally release this accursed blog I've been working on since October to the public.


It's only taken that long to work on it? You're a good writer.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Good, except George keeps talking about my face. :(

lol.


lol. I guess you know this George?
Quoting caneswatch:


lol. I guess you know this George?

Yeah, we work on Wikipedia together.
Good night everyone. This is off topic but I am sure you all would like to know that fellow blogger Bordonaro passed away earlier today.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Because their December forecasts showed little skills, they decided to take a more "professional" approach and not release actual numbers, but instead, the major factors that will go into the 2012 AHS.

yes but I mean their range doesn't even include 6 hurricanes

Quoting caneswatch:


It's only taken that long to work on it? You're a good writer.
Levi came to my rescue.
I'm off to bed guys, good night.

Play nice, because Santa's watching :P

18 DAYS...

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good night everyone. This is off topic but I am sure you all would like to know that fellow blogger Bordonaro passed away earlier today.
WTF? No way.
Quoting KoritheMan:

WTF? No way.
Sad to say Kori but it is all too true. Daughter found him this afternoon and thought he was napping.

Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sad to say Kori but it is all too true. Daughter found him this afternoon and thought he was napping.
*sigh*

Now my night is ruined.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good night everyone. This is off topic but I am sure you all would like to know that fellow blogger Bordonaro passed away earlier today.

From Texas?
Where did you hear this?
From What?
Yes,,we were informed on his
FB page.

I was just chatting about the cold with Him the other morning.
Quoting Patrap:
Yes,,we were informed on his
FB page.

I was just chatting about the cold with Him the other morning.

That sucks big time.
Sorry for his family and of course, sorry for him.
He seemed like a nice person; knowledgeable about the weather, too.
193. xcool
Robert noo wayy .i just talk to him about week ago
Quoting Chicklit:

From Texas?
Where did you hear this?
From What?
His daughter told EmmyRose and she informed us on FB. Sad. I am having a tough time wrapping my mind around this . Such a big hearted man.
So sad, So sudden..

We will miss his wit and posts.

Bordonaro
16 July 1961 - December 2011


Quoting Patrap:
So sad, So sudden..

We will miss his wit and posts.

Bordonaro
16 July 1961 - December 2011





So Sorry to hear.
God Bless him.
197. j2008
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe on the Australian scale, but not the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale one. ;)

Alenga is currently a Category 3 on the Australian scale, but only a Category 1 on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale.
WU says Cat 2 SSHS but thats 1 min sustained so its only a Cat 1 80MPH 10 min sustained SSHS, therefore Cat 3 AHS, wow thats confusing, so shes a Cat 1,2,& 3 LOL.
It's so sad to hear of Bordonaro's passing. May he RIP.
I dunno if anyone is in the mood after hearing of Robert's passing, but I just finished my report on Irwin:


Hurricane Irwin

October 6 - October 17

Irwin was a small but long-lived hurricane that threatened the southwest coast of Mexico before turning away. It also went through many periods of fluctuating between a tropical storm and a tropical depression.

a. Storm history

The genesis of Irwin appears to have been triggered by the southern portion of the tropical wave which spawned Hurricane Philippe in the Atlantic basin. The well-defined wave exited the coast of Africa on September 22, and immediately showed signs of organization. The southern portion of the wave was virtually undetectable on satellite imagery, and its motion is based largely on extrapolation. The wave entered the eastern Pacific on October 2. Although the system produced a widespread area of cloudiness and showers for the next couple of days, little organization was noted, possibly in response to northeasterly shear. Convection began to become better organized early on October 5, and the system is estimated to have spawned a surface low later that day while centered about 900 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. The low continued to deepen while moving slowly west-northwestward, and it became a tropical depression around 0600 UTC October 6 while centered about 880 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The depression became a tropical storm about six hours later. Despite close proximity to Hurricane Jova, which was in the process of intensifying several hundred miles to the east, Irwin underwent a brief period of rapid intensification, becoming a hurricane near 0600 UTC October 7 while located about 925 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula.

Irwin continued to strengthen, reaching its peak of 80 kt near 2100 UTC that same day. At this time, the hurricane was centered around 950 miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula. Irwin's strengthening did not last, however, as Jova soon began to become the dominant circulation, with anticyclonic outflow emanating from that cyclone imparting easterly shear onto Irwin. Since Irwin was initially moving in the direction opposite the shear vector, the slow-moving nature of the tropical cyclone could have exacerbated the detrimental effects of the shear. Irwin weakened to a tropical storm around 1200 UTC October 8. Deep convection essentially disappeared near 0000 UTC October 9, at which time Irwin appears to have weakened to a tropical depression. The rather rapid pace of weakening could have been related to dry air entrainment forcibly injected into the core by the easterly shear, and also the cyclone's relatively small size. Irwin regained tropical storm status near 1200 UTC that day while centered about 835 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.

As a large trough amplified over the western United States and combined with the counterclockwise circulation of Hurricane Jova, southwesterly mid-level flow gradually increased over the cyclone, and Irwin turned east, then gradually east-northeast. During this time, Irwin fluctuated in strength, weakening to a tropical depression twice -- the first instance of this was near 0000 UTC October 11. As Irwin was moving east-northeast toward southwest Mexico, a second such weakening took place, with Irwin losing tropical storm status again near 0000 UTC October 13. The cyclone regained tropical storm strength again near 1200 UTC. The center came within about 150 miles of Manzanillo on the southwest coast of Mexico near 1800 UTC that day. This would be the cyclone's closest approach to land. Thereafter, the cyclone turned southward as the trough that recurved Jova to a landfall in southwest Mexico bypassed it. As the ridge rebuild to the north of the tropical cyclone in the wake of the trough, Irwin was caught on the eastern periphery of it, and consequently turned unclimatologically southward.

During this time, Irwin passed over the cold water wake left behind by Jova, and convection nearly disappeared again just before 0000 UTC October 15. This was short-lived, as convection soon refired, and Irwin was able to maintain tropical storm strength until just after 0000 UTC October 16, at which time it weakened to a tropical depression for the final time. During that time, the weakening storm was located about 350 miles southwest of Manzanillo. Irwin continued to weaken as it turned to the south-southwest, and it became a remnant low around 0000 UTC October 17 while centered about 415 miles southwest of Manzanillo.
anybody like the movie Sometimes They Come Back by Stephen King?

talk about adreneline pumpin lol...
SPLbeater~ You aspire to be a meteorologist.. yet the WMO just came out with the statement..

“Our role is to provide the scientific knowledge to inform action by decision makers,” said [World Meteorological Organization] Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities,” he said.

From the article..WMO: 2011 Is Warmest La Niña Year on Record and Science “Proves Unequivocally” It’s “Due to Human Activities”

Nice graph with it. That La Niña we just had was the strongest in 60 years, yet the warmest too..


Interesting you believe this small warming is inconsequential. Saw the NE & NW passage was open this summer? Seen how the permafrost is changing? Seen the new research from Cambridge University an American Naval Postgraduate School, predicts the Arctic to have an ice free moment summer of 2015.. Interesting you use the word believe after quoting the Christian who pointed out to believe is to have faith in something you can't see like the Holy Spirit.. You can go see lots of pictures of ice melting rapidly online, that's science, the sort of thing God gave you a brain to notice & eyes to see. & if you believe we are to do nothing, why did we stop Hitler? Why don't you go take a nap in a road? Where does God helps those that help themselves play in your life?.. & you make Easter sound like such a novel idea..Ever heard of the Goddess Eastre, also spelled Easter, represented by bunnies, eggs & rebirth, big party Vernal Equinox (first day of Spring), ~March 21st? Take a few religion history classes..learn about what used to also be in the books of the New Testament, the parts The Judges removed, parts written by Mathew, Mark , Luke & John leaving what is left of the Bible your thumping..& where in there does it say it's okay to trash your earth cause the end is now? This fatalistic view about AGW is unhealthy, it's not good & not what Jesus would do. Many preachers are encouraging their flock to learn about & accept the science when it comes to AGW. Even the Southern Baptists are on board. No where in the bible does it say Climate change is not man made & people should do nothing about it. Chemistry is not a religion.

Quoting Skyepony:
SPLbeater~ You aspire to be a meteorologist.. yet the WMO just came out with the statement..

“Our role is to provide the scientific knowledge to inform action by decision makers,” said [World Meteorological Organization] Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities,” he said.

To be fair, he needn't accept unequivocally the theory of AGW if he aspires to be a meteorologist. Gray doesn't.
Quoting KoritheMan:

To be fair, he needn't accept unequivocally the theory of AGW if he aspires to be a meteorologist. Gray doesn't.
Does Gray not? I haven't really seen him say specifically that he doesn't, I've just seen him try to disprove claims that GW will cause an increased number of storms or stronger storms
Quoting Skyepony:
SPLbeater~ You aspire to be a meteorologist.. yet the WMO just came out with the statement..

%u201COur role is to provide the scientific knowledge to inform action by decision makers,%u201D said [World Meteorological Organization] Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. %u201COur science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities,%u201D he said.

From the article..WMO: 2011 Is Warmest La Nia Year on Record and Science %u201CProves Unequivocally%u201D It%u2019s %u201CDue to Human Activities%u201D

Nice graph with it. That La Nia we just had was the strongest in 60 years, yet the warmest too..


Interesting you believe this small warming is inconsequential. Saw the NE & NW passage was open this summer? Seen how the permafrost is changing? Seen the new research from Cambridge University an American Naval Postgraduate School, predicts the Arctic to have an ice free moment summer of 2015.. Interesting you use the word believe after quoting the Christian who pointed out to believe is to have faith in something you can't see like the Holy Spirit.. You can go see lots of pictures of ice melting rapidly online, that's science, the sort of thing God gave you a brain to notice & eyes to see. & if you believe we are to do nothing, why did we stop Hitler? Why don't you go take a nap in a road? Where does God helps those that help themselves play in your life?.. & you make Easter sound like such a novel idea..Ever heard of the Goddess Eastre, also spelled Easter, represented by bunnies, eggs & rebirth, big party Vernal Equinox (first day of Spring), ~March 21st? Take a few religion history classes..learn about what used to also be in the books of the New Testament, the parts The Judges removed, parts written by Mathew, Mark , Luke & John leaving what is left of the Bible your thumping..& where in there does it say it's okay to trash your earth cause the end is now? This fatalistic view about AGW is unhealthy, it's not good & not what Jesus would do. Many preachers are encouraging their flock to learn about & accept the science when it comes to AGW. Even the Southern Baptists are on board. No where in the bible does it say Climate change is not man made & people should do nothing about it. Chemistry is not a religion.
Sky, it's all part of God's plan, don't worry about it. Just follow the lord and everything will be chill.

lool
Quoting KoritheMan:

To be fair, he needn't accept unequivocally the theory of AGW if he aspires to be a meteorologist. Gray doesn't.


Gonna have a hard time in Chem classes. Probably changed a little since Gray took those. Guess there is sitting in the back snickering. Those ain't easy classes. Couldn't imagine trying to learn it & not "believe" in at the same time.. odds anyone~ he doesn't get kicked out for constantly dragging Jesus into it? & how about getting WMO certified, some met jobs require that..
Quoting Skyepony:
SPLbeater~ You aspire to be a meteorologist.. yet the WMO just came out with the statement..

“Our role is to provide the scientific knowledge to inform action by decision makers,” said [World Meteorological Organization] Secretary-General Michel Jarraud. “Our science is solid and it proves unequivocally that the world is warming and that this warming is due to human activities,” he said.

From the article..WMO: 2011 Is Warmest La Niña Year on Record and Science “Proves Unequivocally” It’s “Due to Human Activities”

Nice graph with it. That La Niña we just had was the strongest in 60 years, yet the warmest too..


Interesting you believe this small warming is inconsequential. Saw the NE & NW passage was open this summer? Seen how the permafrost is changing? Seen the new research from Cambridge University an American Naval Postgraduate School, predicts the Arctic to have an ice free moment summer of 2015.. Interesting you use the word believe after quoting the Christian who pointed out to believe is to have faith in something you can't see like the Holy Spirit.. You can go see lots of pictures of ice melting rapidly online, that's science, the sort of thing God gave you a brain to notice & eyes to see. & if you believe we are to do nothing, why did we stop Hitler? Why don't you go take a nap in a road? Where does God helps those that help themselves play in your life?.. & you make Easter sound like such a novel idea..Ever heard of the Goddess Eastre, also spelled Easter, represented by bunnies, eggs & rebirth, big party Vernal Equinox (first day of Spring), ~March 21st? Take a few religion history classes..learn about what used to also be in the books of the New Testament, the parts The Judges removed, parts written by Mathew, Mark , Luke & John leaving what is left of the Bible your thumping..& where in there does it say it's okay to trash your earth cause the end is now? This fatalistic view about AGW is unhealthy, it's not good & not what Jesus would do. Many preachers are encouraging their flock to learn about & accept the science when it comes to AGW. Even the Southern Baptists are on board. No where in the bible does it say Climate change is not man made & people should do nothing about it. Chemistry is not a religion.


another 50 year graph. another 'warming up' of average temeratures. if the average dont go up bout 5 degrees, then you most likely wont feel it and shouldnt be called warming.

God has a plan, all that is/will happen is in his control, not ours.
Quoting SPLbeater:


another 50 year graph. another 'warming up' of average temeratures. if the average dont go up bout 5 degrees, then you most likely wont feel it and shouldnt be called warming.

God has a plan, all that is/will happen is in his control, not ours.


5 degrees? Your never gonna pass that WMO certification test..from one of the links I left you..the one where the head of WMO says..

“Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached new highs. They are very rapidly approaching levels consistent with a 2-2.4 degree Centigrade rise in average global temperatures which scientists believe could trigger far reaching and irreversible changes in our Earth, biosphere and oceans,” he said.


Are those that slashed the use of CFCs, saved the ozone & life on earth as we know it from ultraviolet rays going to hell for that or something? You're being fatalistic about this. Priests & church leaders are discouraging this..standing behind the scientists. If Southern Baptist Priests get it why not you?

Quoting TomTaylor:
Does Gray not? I haven't really seen him say specifically that he doesn't, I've just seen him try to disprove claims that GW will cause an increased number of storms or stronger storms
You know what? I'm actually not sure. I probably shouldn't have insinuated I did. Though it does seem like I've heard it somewhere before.
Kori~ No need to doubt. You are correct about Gray..
Quoting Skyepony:


5 degrees? Your never gonna pass that WMO certification test..from one of the links I left you..the one where the head of WMO says..

“Concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere have reached new highs. They are very rapidly approaching levels consistent with a 2-2.4 degree Centigrade rise in average global temperatures which scientists believe could trigger far reaching and irreversible changes in our Earth, biosphere and oceans,” he said.


Are those that slashed the use of CFCs, saved the ozone & life on earth as we know it from ultraviolet rays going to hell for that or something? You're being fatalistic about this. Priests & church leaders are discouraging this..standing behind the scientists. If Southern Baptist Priests get it why not you?


it does not matter who agrees with this. some churches have fallen apart, to the horrifying worldy ways, which i have been observing, consume you and others. And as long as you give credit to man and man only, then you will not be giving credit to the right one.


I just dont see how its possible to not give a care about the God that gave you breath
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
10:30 AM RET December 8 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1001 hPa) located at 16.7S 65.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Additional Information
======================

The system remains northwesterly sheared but convective activity is closer to the low level circulation center since last night.

System is forecast to keep on tracking globally westward without significant further intensification then to fill up on and after December 10th.

The system, as a weak stage, should pass far away north of Rodrigues Island Friday but heavy rain should occur over this island from December 9th through December 11th

CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
10:30 AM RET December 8 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1001 hPa) located at 16.7S 65.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 with gusts of 35 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 8 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/1.5/S0.0/24 HRS

Additional Information
======================

The system remains northwesterly sheared but convective activity is closer to the low level circulation center since last night.

System is forecast to keep on tracking globally westward without significant further intensification then to fill up on and after December 10th.

The system, as a weak stage, should pass far away north of Rodrigues Island Friday but heavy rain should occur over this island from December 9th through December 11th

CURRENT INTENSITY DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF REGULAR WARNING.



good to see a tropical comment, not somebody bashing me, even tho it helps. How goes it in your area Hades?
Red Alert: Scotland Braced for winds of 100 mph

SCOTLAND is on red alert for its most severe storm in decades with the Central Belt expected to be lashed today by devastating hurricane-force winds gusting up to 100mph.

Last-minute warnings from the Met Office led to a recommendation from the Scottish Government that schools on the west coast should remain closed, while pupils in the east of the country should travel home at lunchtime.

Police are also likely to take the unprecedented step of advising motorists across the country to avoid using the roads altogether when the storm is at its height.

Deputy First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said after an emergency meeting of the Scottish Cabinet last night: “Having considered the updated information received from the Met Office tonight, the police have advised that there is a probability that they will change their travel advice in the coming hours from warning about a high risk of disruption to a position where they will advise drivers to avoid travelling on the roads in the affected areas.

“The decision is a matter for individual authorities but the warnings are of the highest level of seriousness and we are clear that safety has to be the paramount issue. Parents should check locally through websites, local radio and with their schools to find out the specific situation with their own schools.

“All commuters are advised that, if they can, to adjust their working pattern to reflect the latest weather and travel advice or work from home. ”

Police warned that travel conditions today will be “extremely poor” when the winds are at their peak with “significant delays” and a “severe impact” on the evening rush hour. All main bridges, including the Forth Road Bridge, are likely to be closed while trees and vehicles are at risk of being blown over.

Central Scotland Assistant Chief Constable Allan Moffat on behalf of the Association of Chief Police Officers (Scotland) (ACPOS) said: “We will be continually monitoring weather reports and there is a probability that based upon these updates, we will recommend that the public should avoid travelling in the regions of Scotland which are most affected by the extreme weather.

“It is likely that any such recommendations will commence in the west of Scotland from approximately 7am generally moving eastwards throughout the day.”

The Scottish Government’s Transport Scotland agency said disruption to power supplies and property was also “a strong possibility”.

Transport minister Keith Brown said the storm would pose “a major challenge” for commuters and warned them to “avoid unnecessary risks”.

He said the Met Office was confident wind speeds would exceed 75mph and could even top 100mph. According to the Beaufort scale, which measures wind conditions, gusts of 73mph and over are described as hurricane force.

The Met Office’s red level severe weather warning is the UK’s first since heavy snow in Scotland last December and Scotland’s first high winds for years. It covers Lothian and the Borders, Strathclyde, Central, Fife, Tayside and south-west Scotland.

Mr Brown said it “looks set to be a major challenge for our transport system, commuters and the public”.

“The initial high winds are expected to peak [from the] afternoon into the evening, so commuters are advised if they can to leave work earlier or work from home that would be a very sensible step to help avoid possible rush-hour delays,” he said.

. . .
SPLbeater

Schizophrenia cannot be cured but it can be treated. Good luck and God bless.
Quoting caneswatch:
It's so sad to hear of Bordonaro's passing. May he RIP.


So sad when we lose a good person. My thoughts and prayers go out to his family.
Gust of 104mph has been recorded by the Met Office in Glen Ogle. Sustained winds hitting as high as 70mph in elevated areas.

and I'm sorry to hear about Bordonaro.
130mph gust on aonach mor, fort william
Beautiful morning in West Palm Beach. Temps in upper 50's. A slow warm up for the upcoming week.

It's been a crazy weather year...and I'm sorry to hear of Bordonaro's death, so sad.

I will miss Bordonaro's post. May he RIP. I remember a couple of years ago when he was on the ground making a snow angel after Dallas got 6' to 8" of snow. I believe that was back Jan. 2009. RIP my friend!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I will miss Bordonaro's post. May he RIP. I remember a couple of years ago when he was on the ground making a snow angel after Dallas got 6' to 8" of snow. I believe that was back Jan. 2009. RIP my friend!
You only been here since 2011, Jeff.
Goes to show just how fragil life is and to sherish every moment as you never know how long you will be in this world.
Quoting frankfish:
You only been here since 2011, Jeff.

Maybe he was a long-time lurker before joining...?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Maybe he was a long-time lurker before joining...?

Posts are sometimes greyed out. You need a login to see every one of them.

You remember Jeff9641?
Quoting frankfish:

Posts are sometimes greyed out. You need a login to see every one of them.

You remember Jeff9641?


????
Here's the NAM 84hr precip plot.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here's the NAM 84hr precip plot.


Jeff, how much of that is Maine supposed to get in the form of snow.

TIA
123000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 965.5mb/ 82.2kt

Raw T# 3.4
Adj T# 3.8
Final T# 4.0

Scene Type: SHEAR
I see now that the last graph has time all backwards.
I'm used to Time running from left (recent or past) to right (next or future). That it probably just a cultural thing I picked up from books in English and museum displays.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Sad to say Kori but it is all too true. Daughter found him this afternoon and thought he was napping.
. he was a very kind person..My prayers go to him and his family. Rest in peace my friend.
31 years ago today we lost John Lennon...

100 km/h gust... power just flickered here in bedford ns
Quoting SPLbeater:


i could get kicked out, yes. but to God be the glory, and i will go far. putting trust in the Lord for the classes, is way better then relying on myself. i am nowhere close to perfect, nobody is. and the one who died for our sins to give us a free gift of repentance, loves me. he loves you. he is a jealous God. not jealous of us, but jealous FOR us. he wants the best for us. yet left and right people are rejecting him to follow their own ways. And he said this would happen when he was on earth in human form. 2011 years ago


I always wondered about that- how can God be both perfect and jealous? Seems like a paradox to me.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
SPLbeater

Schizophrenia cannot be cured but it can be treated. Good luck and God bless.
THANK YOU for not Quoting this person... who is getting Really hard to ignore when others are... i would say to those trying to reason, that SLP has clearly closed the reasoning door..
Quoting Minnemike:
THANK YOU for not Quoting this person... who is getting Really hard to ignore when others are... i would say to those trying to reason, that SLP has clearly closed the reasoning door..

And why is that? Because he happens to believe in God...

*sigh*

Ahhh minnemike. Dismissing others simply because they don't adhere to your socialist ideology. Somethings will never change I guess...
i recall Bordonaro posts, especially during plains severe weather event.. I am so sorry to hear this news, and best wishes to family, and friends who knew him well. he was a fine contributor to this blog.
UK Weather Warning: England Next After 100mph Winds Hit Scotland


SPLbeater~ I just don't see how its possible to not give a care about the air that God gave you to breathe.. Your admitting to breaking from mainstream Christianity so please don't pray for my soul anymore... Good luck in your pursuit as a met..
Quoting Nekeopbarren:

And why is that? Because he happens to believe in God...

*sigh*

Ahhh minnemike. Dismissing others simply because they don't adhere to your socialist ideology. Somethings will never change I guess...

do you understand the difference between logical reasoning and belief systems? that is the difference that matters. contributors may indeed discuss beliefs on this blog, as all have their right to post freely within community standards. but those efforts to try to counter belief systems with logical reasoning will get no one any further, when discussing a topic solely relying on the faculty of logic and reason, and Not belief. that is why i stated my point, and request those attempting this to leave SLP's comments out of their responses... or to not even engage logic against belief in this first place, being my suggestion.

and WHERE IN THE F do you come off spouting nonsense about 'supposed' socialist ideology.. your response illustrates my point well, and i won't be seeing your replies either... though, i'll give you one reply to show me you can engage in a discussion founded by logic, or rather, just illustrate an ability of comprehension.
245: ok, the previous poster was out of line and rude a bit, but you have to admit your positions on politics and religion are so far, extreme to the left (bordering Marxist) that it isn't funny. Get over it. Be a man and fess up that not everyone subscribes to your liberal banter.
Link

Interesting article...
Wow. The snow streak in the interior northeast from the noreaster is easily visible on this mornings visible imagery.

Quoting SPLbeater:


it does not matter who agrees with this. some churches have fallen apart, to the horrifying worldy ways, which i have been observing, consume you and others. And as long as you give credit to man and man only, then you will not be giving credit to the right one.


I just dont see how its possible to not give a care about the God that gave you breath


You just got all the Respect i can give you what you have said from your post. Keep your belief and "VALUES"....and i say again your "VALUES", as it will take you higher places in LIFE and BEYOND.
Quoting Coldwellrnd:
245: ok, the previous poster was out of line and rude a bit, but you have to admit your positions on politics and religion are so far, extreme to the left (bordering Marxist) that it isn't funny. Get over it. Be a man and fess up that not everyone subscribes to your liberal banter.
wow, the woodwork is intricate... thanks for the mention of my nearly extreme marxist remarks, because i was not aware i had a proclivity to MAKE ANY SUCH REMARKS! so, with your Nov. 28, 2011 join up, it seems to me you clearly have a good grasp of blogging history here. thanks for sharing.

"contributors may indeed discuss beliefs on this blog, as all have their right to post freely within community standards."
ideology is belief. i have 'been the man' you challenged me to be, already..
-that was your one shot at proving an ability to comprehend. now i get to ignore two handles from you ;)
LOOKS like a VERY LARGE NOR-Easter for the EAst coast next WEEK....LOOKS LiKE a Double Banger LOw forms up the East Coast.....Have fun!
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
SPLbeater

Schizophrenia cannot be cured but it can be treated. Good luck and God bless.

may I say... RAMEN!
Quoting goosegirl1:

may I say... RAMEN!

Hey, how's QuiltingQueen and Xyrus2000 doing there, eh? Your two other alternate handles. Really? Nah, you would NEVER do that!!!

LOL
Quoting frankfish:

Hey, how's QuiltingQueen and Xyrus2000 doing there, eh? Your two other alternate handles. Really? Nah, you would NEVER do that!!!

LOL


sorry, not me. I am not even tech-savvy enough to play that game. But this is a waste of blog space, and all I have to say. Cheers!
Quoting goosegirl1:


sorry, not me. I am not even tech-savvy enough to play that game. But this is a waste of blog space, and all I have to say. Cheers!

Sorry, goose. Got the wrong person.

Cheers!
Quoting mistymountainhop:

Somewhere calusakat is laughing his ass off seeing you get manhandled argument after argument on this blog.

And yes, the previous poster is right. When you feel inept to take upon another blogger's viewpoint that just so happens to oppose yours, you attack him/her and then dismiss them. You are famous for this, Mike.

I think that's called running in the corner and hiding, my friend. Ouch.

How sad.

minnemike is not like that. stop it already!!
Quoting TampaSpin:
YOU all should Know and understand that 90% of the Bloggers that blog regular on this Site are VERY LIBERAL LEFT WINGERS that adhere to those Very Liberal Left Wing Views....ITS OK THO....BLOG ON! Gotta run.....HARE A GREAT DAY and Merry CHRISTMAS
yes, let's share this space... but perhaps insinuations can 'follow' statements, and not 'precede' in the absence of evidential commentary... this goes out to your constituency Tampa, but not explicitly to you. we may differ so greatly, but there's a reason i still see your posts, despite those differences!
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I will miss Bordonaro's post. May he RIP. I remember a couple of years ago when he was on the ground making a snow angel after Dallas got 6' to 8" of snow. I believe that was back Jan. 2009. RIP my friend!


Quoting biff4ugo:
I see now that the last graph has time all backwards.
I'm used to Time running from left (recent or past) to right (next or future). That it probably just a cultural thing I picked up from books in English and museum displays.

Actually time is increasing to the right on that graph. It is how far we have to go to get back to the future. But I agree it is confusing, I think because we are so used to looking at calendars.
Re: the blog article... "..The main reason that CSU's December forecasts have shown no skill is because we have no skill predicting El Niño events nine months or more into the future.."

Ok so the CSU December forecast has no skill.. due to the fact that there is no reliable science in forecasting El Nino intensity 9 months out.. WHAT THE HELL ARE WE TALKING ABOUT? Quantitative probabilities based on?? Tea leaves?? Caterpillar fur density?? Ant colony behavior?? Seems like a waste of time and resources.. I'd rather they used both to better forecast future El Nino.. now there's a thought! IMO..

Long range GFS showing Arctic outbreak round Christmas, coming down the plains. Bordonaro would of been watching for this...
Quoting TampaSpin:
LOOKS like a VERY LARGE NOR-Easter for the EAst coast next WEEK....LOOKS LiKE a Double Banger LOw forms up the East Coast.....Have fun!


When? I thought the next storm wouldn't be until next Friday?
Quoting KoritheMan:


I also consider myself a hardcore atheist, in the sense that I am firmly established in my convictions. However, I will not definitively claim that there is no god. There is an important difference between believing there is no god, and lacking belief in god. The former is considered strong atheism, and the latter weak atheism. I identify myself with the latter, since we really don't have any proof either way. Now, these terms may seem like meaningless wordplay to you (and to others as well), which is fine, but I've studied theology long enough to know that they have a coherent meaning.

More to the point, science hasn't disproved religion anymore than religion has debased or falsified science's claims. It is true that scientific claims are pretty much inherently better than religious claims simply because of the way the scientific method works (repeatability, something religion sorely lacks). However, any intellectually honest person would freely admit that we lack proof in the direction of god(s), both for and against. The way I see it, there's no real proof for god(s), but there's also no proof against it, either. I merely disbelieve because of a lack of reason to believe (I need evidence). Also, it's important to remember that, although the best religion has to offer is anecdotal evidence, something that doesn't hold up very well as evidence to others, that's all the person experiencing it needs. Actually, that's one of the main reasons I am an atheist. Were I to actually experience something I genuinely deemed to be supernatural in nature, chances are I would believe, provided all other naturalistic explanations were fairly and objectively evaluated and fell short of a satisfactory answer.

Also, if I may, why are you an antitheist? I consider myself anti-Christianity and anti-Islam, because I feel they do more harm than good to a society, but I would be a fool to assert the same of all religions. Buddhism, for example, is one of the more peaceful religions. It's not fair to lump in all religion with monotheistic, or Abrahamic ones.
i really need to stop falling asleep after waking up
Quoting JNCali:
Re: the blog article... "..The main reason that CSU's December forecasts have shown no skill is because we have no skill predicting El Niño events nine months or more into the future.."

Ok so the CSU December forecast has no skill.. due to the fact that there is no reliable science in forecasting El Nino intensity 9 months out.. WHAT THE HELL ARE WE TALKING ABOUT? Quantitative probabilities based on?? Tea leaves?? Caterpillar fur density?? Ant colony behavior?? Seems like a waste of time and resources.. I'd rather they used both to better forecast future El Nino.. now there's a thought! IMO..



It's all about having jobs and keeping that market looking good and looking like society really is in control, when in reality we are clueless and vulnerable to the future
when in reality we are clueless and vulnerable to the future


To live in the Dark and not seek to understand what scares one is a choice.

..those who seek and discover walk in the Light of Knowledge.
Quoting Patrap:
when in reality we are clueless and vulnerable to the future


To live in the Dark and not seek to understand what scares one is a choice.

..those who seek and discover walk in the Light of Knowledge.


That's correct, were trying, but long ways to go. And some things aren't meant to be understood and that is a fact that man must understand.
Sad to have 01S weakening. i dont want a quiet basin xD
Quoting Patrap:
when in reality we are clueless and vulnerable to the future


To live in the Dark and not seek to understand what scares one is a choice.

..those who seek and discover walk in the Light of Knowledge.

There is a limit to knowledge, there is a bunch of it out there but it is finite.. 'truth' on the other hand..
Check out the gravity wave moving from west to east, from Mexico into the Central Gulf on visible loops.
165mph gust on cairngorm in the scottish highlands
Quoting RitaEvac:


And some things aren't meant to be understood and that is a fact that man must understand.

Yes, like Quantum Mechanics!
Quoting RitaEvac:


That's correct, were trying, but long ways to go. And some things aren't meant to be understood and that is a fact that man must understand.



Humans fail as a whole, granted.

The Mayan, Sumerian and other Great Civilizations all knew dat.

And Left.

There are now 378 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice

Enjoy your Thursday.


: )
Quoting RitaEvac:
Check out the gravity wave moving from west to east, from Mexico into the Central Gulf on visible loops.

Wow, that is really neat. What would cause that, you think?
Quoting Patrap:



Humans fail as a whole, granted.

The Mayan, Sumerian and other Great Civilizations all knew dat.

And Left.

There are now 378 days until the 2012 Winter Solstice

Enjoy your Thursday.


: )


It's either the end of us....or a new era for man....or just a BS Mayan screw up that they got tired of writing out the calendar into the future and just quit
Quoting TampaCat5:

Wow, that is really neat. What would cause that, you think?


Not sure, someone on here probably knows though.
Shock waves in the atmosphere
Quoting RitaEvac:


Not sure, someone on here probably knows though.
Shock waves in the atmosphere
gotta be HAARP
Quoting JNCali:
gotta be HAARP


The UN would claim it as AGW
OMG, the blog's crazy today.

First of all R.I.P. Bordonaro. Your posts were much appreciated, you'll be missed.

Second, ugh, religion on a science blog. These two should be kept apart at all times as nothing good can come of it if they mix. just my two cents on that: I do believe in god but I don't believe that he/she is going to make all the greenhouse gases magically disappear or the nuclear waste from the Fukushima power plant or any other pollution caused by humans for that matter. Humans have been given the free will to act as they see it fit and no god is going to interfere with that. It's time to take responsibility for our actions, not playing the fatalistic card 'God will save us from this, we don't have to do anything' and sticking our head in the sand like an ostrich now that we see the first consequences of our actions. So to those who say god has a plan for everything I say 'wake up and be responsible adults!'

Third, Scotland is really getting a beating. 77 mph sustained (10 min) and 114 mph gusts, ouch! And, as it seems, the station has been damaged, since there is no data for 1600, after two hours of those winds it's no longer reporting. Here in Wales we've gotten away with 48 mph sustained and 72 mph gusts in the mountains and 60 mph / 79 mph on the coast.

Here's the detailed surface analysis, someone requested that earlier. The low is now deeper as forecast yesterday, 960 mb.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Not sure, someone on here probably knows though.
Shock waves in the atmosphere


probably Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds from dynamic instability
Quoting calder:


probably Kelvin-Helmholtz clouds from dynamic instability


Kelvin Wave
Time Lapse of gravity wave action from the Tama, Iowa KCCI-TV webcam on 6 May 2007.

Just got down from Arthur's Seat in Edinburgh--measured 76 mph sustained and 109 mph gust on my handheld anemometer.
Never felt anything like that before, and not sure I want to again...
Quoting RitaEvac:


That's correct, were trying, but long ways to go. And some things aren't meant to be understood and that is a fact that man must understand.


That's why wee need more female scientists.

RitaEvac, possibly you should stop confusing your own lack of comprehension with the way the world works.
FYI, although this is really just (re)stating the obvious, frankfish and a few others who have appeared above are sockpuppets of an individual who also infests the climate blog (and just had a handle banned a couple of days ago for spouting obscenities while apparently drunk). A sad, lonely old man as best I can tell.

I'm not quite sure about SPLbeater, who at least has a join date a few months old, but the business about completely trusting in the Big Sky Fairy even while learning how to forecast weather based on data seems a little too cognitively dissonant, as SkyePony pointed out. OTOH we're all a little cognitively dissonant.

IMHO the best way of dealing with this is to make reference to religion ban-worthy (beyond casual references like "May the Cosmic Muffin open the door of the Big Oven and take into Her/His pan the victims of the typhoon").

Being an Admin here is a thankless task, that's for sure.
Quoting taistelutipu:
OMG, the blog's crazy today.

First of all R.I.P. Bordonaro. Your posts were much appreciated, you'll be missed.

Second, ugh, religion on a science blog. These two should be kept apart at all times as nothing good can come of it if they mix. just my two cents on that: I do believe in god but I don't believe that he/she is going to make all the greenhouse gases magically disappear or the nuclear waste from the Fukushima power plant or any other pollution caused by humans for that matter. Humans have been given the free will to act as they see it fit and no god is going to interfere with that. It's time to take responsibility for our actions, not playing the fatalistic card 'God will save us from this, we don't have to do anything' and sticking our head in the sand like an ostrich now that we see the first consequences of our actions. So to those who say god has a plan for everything I say 'wake up and be responsible adults!'

Third, Scotland is really getting a beating. 77 mph sustained (10 min) and 114 mph gusts, ouch! And, as it seems, the station has been damaged, since there is no data for 1600, after two hours of those winds it's no longer reporting. Here in Wales we've gotten away with 48 mph sustained and 72 mph gusts in the mountains and 60 mph / 79 mph on the coast.

Here's the detailed surface analysis, someone requested that earlier. The low is now deeper as forecast yesterday, 960 mb.


165mph gust on cairngorm!
Quoting RitaEvac:


Kelvin Wave


yeh same thing
Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Just got down from Arthur's Seat in Edinburgh--measured 76 mph sustained and 109 mph gust on my handheld anemometer.
Never felt anything like that before, and not sure I want to again...


I'm in edinburgh too, pretty nuts for the east coast!
Quoting taistelutipu:
OMG, the blog's crazy today.

First of all R.I.P. Bordonaro. Your posts were much appreciated, you'll be missed.

Second, ugh, religion on a science blog. These two should be kept apart at all times as nothing good can come of it if they mix. just my two cents on that: I do believe in god but I don't believe that he/she is going to make all the greenhouse gases magically disappear or the nuclear waste from the Fukushima power plant or any other pollution caused by humans for that matter. Humans have been given the free will to act as they see it fit and no god is going to interfere with that. It's time to take responsibility for our actions, not playing the fatalistic card 'God will save us from this, we don't have to do anything' and sticking our head in the sand like an ostrich now that we see the first consequences of our actions. So to those who say god has a plan for everything I say 'wake up and be responsible adults!'

Third, Scotland is really getting a beating. 77 mph sustained (10 min) and 114 mph gusts, ouch! And, as it seems, the station has been damaged, since there is no data for 1600, after two hours of those winds it's no longer reporting. Here in Wales we've gotten away with 48 mph sustained and 72 mph gusts in the mountains and 60 mph / 79 mph on the coast.

Here's the detailed surface analysis, someone requested that earlier. The low is now deeper as forecast yesterday, 960 mb.


only time i ever bring up my relationship with Jesus Christ is when i must take a stand. i would rather talk tropics 24/7 lol, thats the truth:)


Everybody who talked trash to me last night i forgive you
Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Just got down from Arthur's Seat in Edinburgh--measured 76 mph sustained and 109 mph gust on my handheld anemometer.
Never felt anything like that before, and not sure I want to again...


I'm glad you made it back alive and in one piece! That's like walking outside in a cat 1 hurricane. When I walked to uni earlier, I saw slate tiles and rain drain pipes blown down from the roofs. Heads up!
Quoting calder:


165mph gust on cairngorm!


Wow, that's incredible. Where did you find that? Cairngorm is not listed on the ukmet site. I think I have to go googling it...
somebody tell me the location of this storm? wasnt here earlier, was snoozing lol
Quoting SPLbeater:


only time i ever bring up my relationship with Jesus Christ is when i must take a stand. i would rather talk tropics 24/7 lol, thats the truth:)


Everybody who talked trash to me last night i forgive you


Why lie? You're the one who brought up religion, right out of the blue, in your comment 31.

Seems like troll behavior to me.

yes, found it. New data uploaded every six hours. current observation is 111 mph with 127 mph gusts.
Quoting taistelutipu:


Wow, that's incredible. Where did you find that? Cairngorm is not listed on the ukmet site. I think I have to go googling it...


BBC has a live stream here that reported it a couple hours ago.
The "frankfish" etc. puppeteer likes to brag about the sockpuppetry, e.g. here (not that this by itself proves anything about SPLbeater).
Re possible AGW causation of this storm:

Hard to know absent careful analysis, but just to note that this is the sort of thing we should expect more of since the entire ocean-atmosphere circulation is shifting. But no worries, right?
Quoting spbloom:


Why lie? You're the one who brought up religion, right out of the blue, in your comment 31.

Seems like troll behavior to me.



pfft. yeah, i did. you know why? because if i didnt, i would be leaving out the truth behind why we dont need to be goin crazy of a few small changes, and if i left him out i would be missiing part of the puzzle.

Thanks, FlyingScotsman. I'm watching the recorded item.

From the live text:
Information

Scotland's storm winds in numbers....

* Strongest gust - Cairngorm hit 165 mph (UK record 173 mph)
* Strongest low level gust - Tiree hit 91 mph
* Central belt - up to 80mph
* Homes without power - 12,000
* Schools which did not open at all or closed in the afternoon - about 70% of the 2,800 total
* Major bridges closed - Tay, Forth and Erskine. The others are open but have vehicle restrictions
* Weather incidents dealt with by Strathclyde Police - 450

and fortunately also:
1705:
Miss Sturgeon points out there have been no reported serious injuries or deaths related to the weather.

They also said that it has been the strongest storm since 1988.
Quoting SPLbeater:


pfft. yeah, i did. you know why? because if i didnt, i would be leaving out the truth behind why we dont need to be goin crazy of a few small changes, and if i left him out i would be missiing part of the puzzle.



You are perfectly entitled to your beliefs, but shouldn't this blog be about science? I would never try to impart my beliefs on anyone else, why should you?
Some turbines of a wind farm burst into flames due to the winds (image 13 of 13). Scotland winter storm in pictures.
Quoting calder:
165mph gust on cairngorm in the scottish highlands


What's the record wind gust in Scotland?
Do you mean the record since records began or the record for this event in particular?

165 mph is the record for this event and 173 mph is the official record dating from 20 March 1986 in the same location, Cairngorm. There is an unofficial record of 177 mph from the Shetland islands recorded in 1962.
Quoting calder:


You are perfectly entitled to your beliefs, but shouldn't this blog be about science? I would never try to impart my beliefs on anyone else, why should you?


i like weather just as any1 else. i just dont want to see anybody here be rejected from Christ, because i like everybody here. so asa servant of the Lord Jesus Christ i try at some times when somebody says a certain thing that i must involve the Lord to get the truth, i plant the seed. wether you let it grow or not is your decision, and God works there
Quoting spbloom:
Re possible AGW causation of this storm:

Hard to know absent careful analysis, but just to note that this is the sort of thing we should expect more of since the entire ocean-atmosphere circulation is shifting. But no worries, right?


No worries Nea Jr