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CSU and TSR continue to predict a near-average hurricane season

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:18 PM GMT on August 04, 2009

A tropical disturbance embedded in the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), near 9N 35W, is moving west at about 15 mph. The heavy thunderstorm activity associated with this tropical wave has changed little over the past 24 hours, and remains disorganized. This morning's QuikSCAT pass showed a moderate wind shift, but nothing resembling an organized surface circulation. Top winds were in the 20 - 30 mph range. Strong easterly winds are creating about 20 knots of wind shear over the wave, which is marginally conducive for development. The disturbance is about 300 miles south of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL), so dust and dry air should not hinder development over the next few days.

Given the disturbance's current lack of organization, combined with the presence of 20 knots of wind shear, any development should be slow to occur. The forecast wind shear along the storm's path over the next five days is predicted to remain at or below 20 knots, which should allow some slow development. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) will warm from about 28°C to 29°C as the storm progresses westward. The GFS model has been indicating some development is possible in several of its runs over the past few days, but has not been consistent with this prediction. None of the other models show any development of the system. NHC is giving the disturbance a low (less than 30% chance) of developing into a tropical depression over the next two days, which is a good forecast. The GFS and ECMWF models predict the system will be approaching the northern Lesser Antilles Islands by Sunday. Both models forecast the development of a band of very high wind shear just to the north of the islands at that time, so the long-range survival of anything that might manage to develop is in doubt.

CSU forecast team continues to predict an average hurricane season
A near-average Atlantic hurricane season is on tap for 2009, according to the seasonal hurricane forecast issued August 4 by Dr. Phil Klotzbach and Dr. Bill Gray of Colorado State University (CSU). The CSU team is calling for 10 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 83% of average. Between 1950 - 2000, the average season had 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. But since 1995, the beginning of an active hurricane period in the Atlantic, we've averaged 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 4 intense hurricanes per year. The new forecast is a step down from their June forecast, which called for 11 named storms, 5 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. Their April forecast called for 12 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. The new forecast calls for a near-average chance of a major hurricane hitting the U.S., both along the East Coast (27% chance, 31% chance is average) and the Gulf Coast (26% chance, 30% chance is average). The Caribbean is also forecast to have an average risk of a major hurricane (37%; 42% is average).

The forecasters noted that while sea surface temperature anomalies have increased in the tropical Atlantic and surface pressures have fallen in recent weeks, which normally would favor higher hurricane activity, the presence of El Niño conditions in the Eastern Pacific should counteract these influences. They forecast that the current weak El Niño event will strengthen to a moderate event by September:

El Niño events tend to be associated with increased levels of vertical wind shear and decreased levels of Atlantic hurricane activity. Tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures anomalies have warmed somewhat since our early June prediction and surface pressures have fallen somewhat. But, the negative influences of El Niño-induced strong Caribbean Basin and Main Development Region vertical wind shear typically dominate over surface pressure and sea surface temperature in the tropical Atlantic.



Figure 1. Change in Sea Surface Temperature anomaly (in °C) between July 2009 and May 2009. Most of the tropical Atlantic has warmed, relative to normal, over the past 2 months. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Analogue years
The CSU team picked four previous years when atmospheric and oceanic conditions were similar to what we are seeing this year: weak to moderate El Niño conditions, and average tropical Atlantic and far northern Atlantic SSTs. Those four years were 2002, which featured Hurricane Lili that hit Louisiana as a Category 1 storm; 1965, which had Category 3 Betsy that hit New Orleans; 1963, which had Category 4 Hurricane Flora that devastated Cuba; and 1957, which didn't have any hurricanes that hit hit land during the peak part of hurricane season. The mean activity for these four years was 9 named storms, 4 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes--almost the same as the 2009 CSU forecast.

How accurate are the August forecasts?
The August forecasts by the CSU team have historically offered a skill of 45 -62% higher than a "no-skill" forecast using climatology (Figure 2). However, they are using a new forecast scheme this year, so it is difficult to judge how skillful this year's forecast might be.


Figure 2. Accuracy of long-range forecasts of Atlantic hurricane season activity performed at Colorado State University (CSU) by Dr. Bill Gray's team (colored squares) and Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR, colored lines). The skill is measured by the Mean Square Skill Score (MSSS), which looks at the error and squares it, then compares the percent improvement the forecast has over a climatological forecast of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TS=Tropical Storms, H=Hurricanes, IH=Intense Hurricanes, ACE=Accumulated Cyclone Energy, NTC=Net Tropical Cyclone Activity. Image credit: TSR.

August 2009 Atlantic hurricane season forecast from Tropical Storm Risk, Inc.
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) also issued a new forecast today, and have increased their numbers by 20% from their June and July forecasts. TSR is also calling for a near-average season, predicting 12.6 named storms, 6.5 hurricanes, 2.8 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 103% of average. Their June forecast called for 10.9 named storms, 5.2 hurricanes, 2.2 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 72% of average. The storm numbers are slightly above the 50-year average of 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 40% chance of an above-average season, 44% chance of a near-average season, and a 19% chance of a below-average season, as defined by ACE index. TSR rates their skill level as 51% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 60% skill for hurricanes, and 44% skill for intense hurricanes. These are far higher skill numbers than the June ones: 26% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 15% skill for hurricanes, and 19% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 3.8 named storms will hit the U.S., with 1.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. Their skill in making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 25% above chance. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.1 named storms, 0.5 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites one main factor for their increased forecast: higher sea surface temperatures than expected over the tropical Atlantic, due to the fact that the trade winds over the Atlantic should be slower than originally anticipated. Faster than average trade winds create less spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to cool down, due to increased mixing of cold water from the depths and enhanced evaporational cooling.

The CSU and TSR groups are done making forecasts for the coming hurricane season, but NOAA is still due to put out an August update.

I'll have an update on Wednesday.
Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. flsky
It's funny how you can always tell whose been drinking when they post....
Well I'm not saying a high heat content in the Gulf is the sole factor in generating strong winter storms, but I think it can contribute.
RIP central atlantic wave.moving on
1004. Dakster
Someone edumacate me. What superstorm of 1993? I was busy trying to get my life in order after Andrew wrecked everything I owned.
Stormpetrol, just looked it up and seems like Gilbert passed about 120 miles off Grand Cayman. We had winds of 119 gusting to 136
Quoting CyberStorm:
RIP central atlantic wave.moving on


Oh......come on.


Too many times do people do this. They write a disturbance off, and then it flares back up. It is only diurnal cycles. If you look at a satellite, you can still clearly see a spin, just with limited convection. Wait another 24 hours before writing it off.
My page on the 93 superstorm.
1009. Dakster
Orca - What was the temp today for you? Another 100 + degree scorcher?
.
Quoting Dakster:
Someone edumacate me. What superstorm of 1993? I was busy trying to get my life in order after Andrew wrecked everything I owned.

Link
One of the biggest non-tropical storm in the US in the 20th century...see above link.
Quoting Dakster:
Someone edumacate me. What superstorm of 1993? I was busy trying to get my life in order after Andrew wrecked everything I owned.
wasnt that the perfect storm? east coast of fl. had 20ft. waves, washing over a1a.
1014. BDAwx
Hurricane Felicia looks pretty good looks like by the time the new thunderstorms near the eye wrap all the way around it could be a major hurricane. It's sibling Enrique looks like its struggling...

IMO the AOI in the Atlantic doesn't look too good right now but we will see what happens... stranger things have happened than a storm forming from something that looks like that.
Quoting AllStar17:


Oh......come on.


Too many times do people do this. They write a disturbance off, and then it flares back up. It is only diurnal cycles. If you look at a satellite, you can still clearly see a spin, just with limited convection. Wait another 24 hours before writing it off.


if it cant maintain convection during dmin than there is nothing there.it can spin all it wants but no surface low means no storm.it will gradually move into ca as a blob
Good evening, all!!!!!!!
1017. beell
Quoting tornadofan:


I second that...


3rd that
Quoting Dakster:
Orca - What was the temp today for you? Another 100 + degree scorcher?


High today was only 28.8
A very nice day... :)
nrti where do you get the updates on the strength of current systems?

IF it is the same site you gave me last night, let me know where on the site to find it

thanks in advance
Anyone want to go to Hawaii?
CyberStorm

What??????? Disturbances / Invests do suffer from diurnal cycles. Convection wanes during DMIN, and increases during DMAX. And, if a disturbance has a spin, the spin always has a chance to reach the surface. Your comment was absolutely wrong.
1024. amd
Quoting hurricane23:
My page on the 93 superstorm.


the 1993 superstorm, an amazing winter storm. Pressures fell to 960 mb in Philadelphia, and even though the storm passed less than 40 miles to the southeast (from where I was living at the time), the precipitation from the storm never changed to plain rain.

Quoting Orcasystems:
Anyone want to go to Hawaii?

It would still be at least 200 miles S if it continued on that path...plus it would be weakened by low water temps...
Quoting StormW:


Ok! LOL!!
I agree Storm. Hey everybody Orca sending everyone to Hawaii.......lol
guys where is the center of this system
Quoting Orcasystems:
Anyone want to go to Hawaii?


Shoot I'll still go! LOL.
Quoting AllStar17:
CyberStorm

What??????? Disturbances / Invests do suffer from diurnal cycles. Convection wanes during DMIN, and increases during DMAX. And, if a disturbance has a spin, the spin always has a chance to reach the surface. Your comment was absolutely wrong.

I got to go the other way man and agree with Cyberstorm...yes it changes with the diurnal cycle but if convection does not hold during dmin then there is no hope because during dmax all it does is get back to where it was and never grows or allows a surface low to form. There is weak weak mid level turning. This storm is sick and needs help. Of course we will watch it but if i was asked today will it turn into something I would lean towards no. Shoot it isnt even and invest yet.
Mental illness tidal wave swamps New Orleans
City's care system shrinking, coming undone
By Audrey Hudson (Contact)

Originally published 04:45 a.m., August 4, 2009, updated 01:15 p.m., August 4, 2009

NEW ORLEANS Washington Times

A mental health crisis that has swamped this city's care facilities as surely as Hurricane Katrina's floodwaters washed over the Lower 9th Ward is about to become even worse, care providers say.

New Orleans already is struggling with fewer than half of the inpatient beds for the mentally ill that it had before the 2005 hurricane - even as suicide rates and the number of people with mental health problems have doubled.

That shortage is about to become even more acute with the scheduled closing Sept. 1 of the New Orleans Adolescent Hospital (NOAH), the city's only public hospital still providing inpatient services for the mentally ill.

The closure, designed to trim $14 million from the state's 2010 budget, will leave New Orleans with 133 beds for mental health inpatient care and will make the city jail - with 60 of those beds - the city's largest psychiatric ward.
Eyewall almost all the way around the eye. That is also a thick eyewall. Intensification could be gradual to rapid after the eye clear out and the eye wall fully surrounds the eye.



Quoting ALCoastGambler:
I agree Storm. Hey everybody Orca sending everyone to Hawaii.......lol


ROFL, I have been there over 30 times... you couldn't pay me to go back.
1033. Patrap
Yup press,that would be the distinguished Doofus Gov Jindals decision.

Heck-of-a-Guy,...


Jindal is wrong to veto the funding of NOAH
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
guys where is the center of this system

well guys where is it center
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

I got to go the other way man and agree with Cyberstorm...yes it changes with the diurnal cycle but if convection does not hold during dmin then there is no hope because during dmax all it does is get back to where it was and never grows or allows a surface low to form. There is weak weak mid level turning. This storm is sick and needs help. Of course we will watch it but if i was asked today will it turn into something I would lean towards no. Shoot it isnt even and invest yet.


Remember Felix???? How quickly it went from a ragged invest to a TS and then to a Cat. 5? This distubance is also only in the early stages of its developmental process. If it is still like this through tomorrow, then I will say it is done, but not yet. StormW also said it still has hope.
Quoting StormW:


You've got me beat Orca...only been twice.


Basically the Canadian Navy's third Homeport on the west coast. Victoria, Diego and Hawaii.
This whole Felicia/Enrique thing is real cool.
1039. Dakster
H23 - Thanks... I read it - it would be interesting if we have the same type of season and a nasty winter storm in 2010....

Felicia looking even better in the latest images.
1041. IKE
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

well guys where is it center

anyone knows
Quoting IKE:


Still vorticity with our AOI
1044. Dakster
Orca - WHAT a difference only 83 today, down from 104! It 86 at night here... The pool is 92..
Pat...mental health services should be increased after a disaster...Jindal should be ashamed...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

anyone knows


It really does not have a "center" It has mid-level turning.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

anyone knows
Go to stormpulse.com
1048. hahaguy
Quoting presslord:
Pat...mental health services should be increased after a disaster...Jindal should be ashamed...


Agreed.
1049. IKE
Quoting AllStar17:


Still vorticity with our AOI


Near 11N and 30W.

Not where the spin is. Maybe the blob at 11N and 30W with vorticity, will amount to something. Area where the spin is, is on life-support.
1050. Patrap
Theres a big push to overide his veto and ,well..NOAH is around the corner from me here and its the place for young folks and schoolchildren with Mental disabilities recieve,..well used to get care.

Sad stuff to close such a place when he accepted 2 Billion from the Feds fore other stuff.
Typical.
1051. Dakster
Welp. Good night everyone. I got a really important test to take tomorrow and I need my sleep.

Morakot looking like a beast in the making. Gaining size and no doubt building a sizable storm surge. Morakot is very near hurricane strength by the 1 minute mean measure meant right now, and is forecast to reach category 2 equivalent. I'm surprised this hasn't been talked about more in light of our own inactivity.

Link
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Go to stormpulse.com

thanks 9n 37w
Iz funnny how youcn alwaz tell whose been prinking when they dost....
So, is this wave gonna rise out of the ITCZ? Its gonna just run into South America...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

thanks 9n 37w
bookmark that page. If something develops you can get a pretty good idea where it will move to and how far it is from certain places.
Evening, Storm.
Stoopid...You OK? Looked like y'all got pounded pretty hard this evening...
Quoting AllStar17:


Remember Felix???? How quickly it went from a ragged invest to a TS and then to a Cat. 5? This distubance is also only in the early stages of its developmental process. If it is still like this through tomorrow, then I will say it is done, but not yet. StormW also said it still has hope.

Yes I remember many hurricanes from the past and I still think this one is dead. You do not have to get all hot and bothered because someone has a different opinion. You also do not have to reference other people on here to prove your point. I am a very experienced met and have my own mind and can come to my own conclusions. Man last night we had such great discusses bouncing ideas off each other with no one getting so fired up over a different opinion. Can we go back in time?
Quoting presslord:
Stoopid...You OK? Looked like y'all got pounded pretty hard this evening...


I was in the main building on base when it happened. Yea, it was pretty nasty, one of the stronger storms I'd seen in awhile. Apparently it stormed all weekend here as well, but I was back in Port Orange on special liberty.
hey guys when does D-max start
Quoting StormW:


Evening.


Sir, all indications are that the season will finally get underway in earnest commencing from next on and beyond. Are you still expecting this to pan out as of tonight, StormW? :)
we didn't get so much as a drop out here on the islands
I have been wrong before and maybe I am wrong again but I just see too many negatives at the moment for this storm to survive. Like I said, if I was asked to make a decision today on what is going to happen I would say it is dead. If I was asked 3 days from now maybe I was wrong and the pattern shifted. I just can not convince myself that the pattern will shift and that shear will drop off as much as the models are saying over by the islands. What weather feature is going to reduce the shear so much in the next 5 days?
Quoting WeatherStudent:


Sir, all indications are that the season will finally get underway in earnest commencing from next on and beyond. Are you still expecting this to pan out as of tonight, StormW? :)


please translate into English....ty
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:
I have been wrong before and maybe I am wrong again but I just see too many negatives at the moment for this storm to survive. Like I said, if I was asked to make a decision today on what is going to happen I would say it is dead. If I was asked 3 days from now maybe I was wrong and the pattern shifted. I just can not convince myself that the pattern will shift and that shear will drop off as much as the models are saying over by the islands. What weather feature is going to reduce the shear so much in the next 5 days?


No surprise you do not expect development. You never even gave 97L a chance either.
Quoting AllStar17:


No surprise you do not expect development. You never even gave 97L a chance either.

You are right I did not. Did it ever make it past a yellow circle? I do not think it did. Good comeback
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

You are right I did not. Did it ever make it past a yellow circle? I do not think it did. Good comeback

lol now that was funny
Quoting StormW:


Nice post.

TY and I know he referenced you and I truly do respect your opinion with the sound reasoning you give. There are plenty of days that no 2 mets agree on the weather. That is why I love this career field.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys when does D-max start

when does D-max start
Quoting presslord:


please translate into English....ty


Evening to you too, PressLord.
1075. 7544
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

when does D-max start


3am est hope this helps
...'sup?...
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

when does D-max start


D-Max starts around 3 am
Quoting 7544:


3am est hope this helps

Quoting AllStar17:


D-Max starts around 3 am

thanks very much
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

You are right I did not. Did it ever make it past a yellow circle? I do not think it did. Good comeback


Settle down just a bit....I did not mean to get you fired up as much as it seems you are. I do respect your opinion, also.
Quoting AllStar17:


Settle down just a bit....I did not mean to get you fired up as much as it seems you are.

I am cool man no worries. I am a very mellow person. Not too much bothers me to be honest. Of course I can see how tone is hard to gauge in here.
Seems to me the blob got sheared, spread out & is dealing with the small bit of energy that was to the ENE, now drawing that in, slowly. Like the models have many times shown. Seems to me like it's going to be one of those many day struggles, like LANA was. Never real strong, up against a hard negative every other day sort of storms. A bad seed with no MJO.
Quoting StormW:


And I, yours. Agreed...plenty of days that no 2 mets agree. I too could be wrong on this...but that's part of the learning process...if it doesn't pan out...ya go back and look to see what you missed, or what else occured. I know I learn something new each season...and I've been dealing with tropical weather since 1996.


Storm, I did not mean to throw you under the bus. I am sorry. I respect yours and everybody else's opinions...and that is why we are all here for...discussing the tropics.
Wow...

Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow...



Looking good....and it will look even better if it can wrap all of that cold convection around the eye.
Let me clairfy what I think is going to happen. I do think convection will refire during Dmax tonight, that is a given and everyone will be excited in the morning. I am cool with that. I am concerned a few days down the road where all the other storms have been getting sheared apart ( you know that region where all the airplanes are getting rocked by turbulance). I think the models are a little aggressive on reducing shear that much in that region without the overall pattern really changing. If someone can point to me what is going to change in the longwave pattern to help aid the reduction in shear throughout that region then I may be swayed to change my opinion. This blob will survive for another 3 or 4 days maybe 5 or 6 haha most likely before we all will probably agree it is dead.
To whomever, Im not a met so i need help! Is there a low with the wave we are talking about?
Quoting stormsurge39:
To whomever, Im not a met so i need help! Is there a low with

Not a surface low. New advisories for Enrique and Felicia due in a few minutes. Felicia adv. should be interesting.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow...


That is incredible on how close they are and how they both are growing together. The models are all over the place with the first one and one would think that the first one would steal all the energy and drop water temps hurting the chances of the second one. Going to be interesting to see how the models are verifing tomorrow with the forecasted track. It does look like both will miss Hawaii just to the south. That is a great METSAT shot though.
Felicia seemed destine to be the stronger, so much smaller. Small storms, like Andrew & Charley, have an advantage for strength. They have less drag, an easier time spinning.
So, it needs a surface low to develope into a TD?
Quoting StormW:


I think I understand what you are asking...and as per my broadcast last week...I see maybe 2 favorable weeks this month...mid to 3rd week. Then probably sometime after the 1st week of September, maybe a little later. I still think Sept. and Oct. are going to be the kickers...although inline with the avg. to near avg season.


Gotcha! I apologies for the accidental typo. LOL, that's why I shouldn't type too fast, LMAO.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
Wow...



On the other hand....Enrique looking very ill at the moment.
Quoting stormsurge39:
So, it needs a surface low to develope into a TD?


Yes.
based on what I am seeing, winds will be increased on Felicia to 85mph
Quoting StormW:


Nothing to be sorry for. If I'm wrong...I'm wrong. Hell, I've been wrong before...I am allowed one boo boo per season. I appreciate that you repsect my opinion. As HaboobsRsweet can tell you...meteorology is not an exact science...in fact, my meteorology professor told me she considers it more of an art.


OK. Thank you. The bold faced sentence is VERY true. Now that I think about it, the NHC has gotten track and intensity very wrong before.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

That is incredible on how close they are and how they both are growing together. The models are all over the place with the first one and one would think that the first one would steal all the energy and drop water temps hurting the chances of the second one. Going to be interesting to see how the models are verifing tomorrow with the forecasted track. It does look like both will miss Hawaii just to the south. That is a great METSAT shot though.


Shoot I made a major mistake on this post hahaha. I got the names of the storms backwards. I havent look to hard at the Pac yet haha. I assumed the E storm was ahead of the F storm haha. So my reasoning makes sense since the E storm will fall apart behind the lead storm. I cracked myself up with that one. Must be getting late.
Whats keeping it from developing a surface low?
nevermind the source I was using is way off lol

8:00 PM PDT Tue Aug 4
Location: 12.8°N 127.2°W
Max sustained: 100 mph
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 975 mb
ZCZC MIATCPEP3 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT TUE AUG 04 2009

...FELICIA CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY RAPIDLY...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 12.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 127.2 WEST OR ABOUT
1335 MILES...2145 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19
KM/HR...AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 100 MPH
...160 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS. FELICIA
IS NOW A CATEGORY TWO HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE
SCALE. CONTINUED STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST AND FELICIA COULD BECOME
A MAJOR HURRICANE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 85
MILES...140 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 975 MB...28.79 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...12.8N 127.2W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...100 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BRENNAN

NNNN

Still continuing to RI. BAP you were 15 mph too low! I thought you would be right.
Quoting StormW:


Nothing to be sorry for. If I'm wrong...I'm wrong. Hell, I've been wrong before...I am allowed one boo boo per season. I appreciate that you repsect my opinion. As HaboobsRsweet can tell you...meteorology is not an exact science...in fact, my meteorology professor told me she considers it more of an art.

Totally agree however I am put in a position often to give an exact answer haha. I have been wrong and will be the first to admit it if I am. I will be the first to tell you when I think a storm as a decent shot to form as well. As a met I wish we would get one but as a human I am glad we havent because I have been in 5 and now live in the land of Katrina.
I, for one, am glad that those two are not in the Atlantic.
1105. JRRP
Impressive comments
Quoting BiloxiIsle:
I, for one, am glad that those two are not in the Atlantic.

No doubt about that and esspecially in the Gulf. Let them grow and not hit any land...send the warnings out to the ships to avoid the area for a few days and sit back and enjoy the beautiful Metsat shots we are getting.
Tell me what is wrong with this map. (maybe it is not wrong....it is just weird)

D 24 hrs after L ??
Weird.
.
148 km/h / 41.2 m/s from the East

http://www.wunderground.com/cgi-bin/findweather/getForecast?query=gnd&wuSelect=WEATHER&MR=0&extende dsun=sunon&theprefset=SUNRISEEXTEND&theprefvalue=1

???
Quoting extreme236:


I see nothing wrong.


potteryX is right. Maybe it is not wrong....it is just weird.
http://oiswww.eumetsat.org/IPPS/html/MSG/RGB/AIRMASS/AMERICA/index.htm

The Meteosat view of the easterly wave.

For the E pac: looks like a Fujiwhara effect in the making
Tops approaching -84 degrees Celsius!

Quoting AllStar17:
Tell me what is wrong with this map. (maybe it is not wrong....it is just weird)


I dont see anything wrong either. Are you talking about it going from a weak depression to a low back to a depression? I think that is because it gets out from behind the other storm to undistrubed waters (warmer water) and has a chance to refire just a bit.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:


I dont see anything wrong either. Are you talking about it going from a weak depression to a low back to a depression? I think that is because it gets out from behind the other storm to undistrubed waters (warmer water) and has a chance to refire just a bit.


You are right. The forecast discussion should be interesting.
Quoting AllStar17:


You are right. The forecast discussion should be interesting.

The E storm is forecasted to dip farther south. It will hit "warmer" waters but it wont make it all the way back to hurricane status.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

The E storm is forecasted to dip farther south. It will hit "warmer" waters but it wont make it all the way back to hurricane status.


The E storm has not achieved hurricane status, nor do I think it will.
Quoting AllStar17:


The E storm has not achieved hurricane status, nor do I think it will.

Right my bad...poor choice of words. I dont think it will reach TS again.
Good Evening All,

With all due respect – I don’t want to ruffle any feathers – but I was wondering, is there some sort of list of credentials or qualifications for the various blog members, so that one might be better able to discern to some degree the weight of a writer’s opinion? I assume not everyone is an actual meteorologist, and I do know that some – like StormW – may not have the paper, but their opinions are never-the-less regarded with respect by other members, and even in some cases – like StormW – by other meteorologists. I’ve clicked on a few icons, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone “put their shingle out” as it were. So I was thinking there ought to be a list; sort of a brief summary of the main “clique” members, you know, kind of a “here we are – love us or leave us” deal. Yesno?
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

Right my bad...poor choice of words. I dont think it will reach TS again.


Neither do I. But, I have never seen the NHC forecast it to become a remnant low, only to then forecast it to become a depression once again.
It has been fun all. This is why I love weather. The discussions and disecting the crud out of these storms is a blast. Have a good night. I work to early to stay up any longer. See ya all tomorrow and watch the excitment after it does refire a bt during dmax and then fade away again during dmin haha.
from accuweather/inaccuweather.com
Disturbed weather in the central Atlantic
Last Update: 4-AUG-2009 6:13pm EDT

An area of disturbed weather 1600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles is being monitored for possible tropical development later this week.

An area of showers and thunderstorms near 9 north, 36 west has been growing and dying during the past 12 hours. Satellite images show some cyclonic turning in the cloud motion. However, thunderstorms are not organizing enough to be too concerned for development during the next day or two. However, if if a more coherent lower level feature becomes established then development will have to be considered. Satellite derived products show sufficient warm water and low shear as positive factors for development. Other satellite derived data shows a considerable amount of dry air to the north of this feature preventing thunderstorm growth north of 10 north. Surface pressures over this area have fallen over the past 24 hours. So, given all these factors there is some potential for development.
Huh.....maybe a typo on the graphic. NHC forecasts it to dissipate in 120 hours per forecast discussion.

THE SHIPS MODEL SHOWS THAT THE NORTHERLY SHEAR CURRENTLY OVER
ENRIQUE WILL INCREASE FURTHER OVER THE NEXT 18 HOURS. AFTER THAT
TIME...ENRIQUE SHOULD ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES BELOW 27C
AND MOVE OVER INCREASINGLY COLDER WATERS DURING THE REMAINDER OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST SHOWS CONTINUED
WEAKENING AFTER 12 HOURS AS A RESULT OF THE INCREASINGLY HOSTILE
CONDITIONS...WITH A GRADUAL SPIN DOWN TO REMNANT LOW STATUS
BEFORE DISSIPATION.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0300Z 16.0N 119.5W 45 KT
12HR VT 05/1200Z 17.0N 121.1W 45 KT
24HR VT 06/0000Z 18.0N 123.2W 40 KT
36HR VT 06/1200Z 18.8N 125.2W 35 KT
48HR VT 07/0000Z 19.1N 127.2W 30 KT
72HR VT 08/0000Z 19.5N 131.5W 25 KT
96HR VT 09/0000Z 19.0N 135.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 10/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER SCHAUER CLARK/BRENNAN
Crap, I hope Felicia doesn't get to close to the US state of Hawaii. We could be dealing with the first US landfall of the Season.
The track has also been fixed. So, just a typo on the graphic.
Quoting mikatnight:
Good Evening All,

With all due respect – I don’t want to ruffle any feathers – but I was wondering, is there some sort of list of credentials or qualifications for the various blog members, so that one might be better able to discern to some degree the weight of a writer’s opinion? I assume not everyone is an actual meteorologist, and I do know that some – like StormW – may not have the paper, but their opinions are never-the-less regarded with respect by other members, and even in some cases – like StormW – by other meteorologists. I’ve clicked on a few icons, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone “put their shingle out” as it were. So I was thinking there ought to be a list; sort of a brief summary of the main “clique” members, you know, kind of a “here we are – love us or leave us” deal. Yesno?

Isnt more fun to try and guess who is and isnt? haha j/k but I feel they are just bragging tools when this blog should not weigh one persons opinion over another. that is how we all learn. You have to stick your own neck out there, make a call one way or another and if you are wrong, learn from it. What you learn will stick with you longer if you do it that way IMO.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Crap, I hope Felicia doesn't get to close to the US state of Hawaii. We could be dealing with the first US landfall of the Season.


At least it would be weakening. I have a feeling Felicia may put on another very impressive burst of strengthening....and it would not surprise me if she got to Cat. 4
Quoting CyberStorm:


if it cant maintain convection during dmin than there is nothing there.it can spin all it wants but no surface low means no storm.it will gradually move into ca as a blob


Your obviously new. We had loads of storms just like this last year that developed, a few hit the US, one 4 times. Weak systems can't maintain convection in Dmin, stronger storms can. This is a weak system, this is expected.
Quoting AllStar17:
The track has also been fixed. So, just a typo on the graphic.

oh well...at least it was fun to talk about for 5 minutes haha.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your obviously new. We had loads of storms just like this last year that developed, a few hit the US, one 4 times. Weak systems can't maintain convection in Dmin, stronger storms can. This is a weak system, this is expected.


Cybr......he did this earlier; and I replied to him and it opened up a whole new can of worms. I also told him the same thing you told him. He does not understand.
Quoting HaboobsRsweet:

oh well...at least it was fun to talk about for 5 minutes haha.


Yep.
Good night. I will see how our disturbance is fairing in the morning.
Quoting AllStar17:


Cybr......he did this earlier; and I replied to him and it opened up a whole new can of worms. I also told him the same thing you told him. He does not understand.


But im not going to ignore him for voicing his opinion. Thats not how I roll.
1134. GatorWX
It's not jut mid level rotation, but surface winds as well. There is no "closed" circulation, but rotating winds are at the surface, not just in the mid levels. Also, systems almost always wane in convection when developing, although not always. This does not mean that the structure of the system is struggling, just that there is a lack of intense convection. It's clear that shear is not a huge factor yet, and sst's are certainly warm. I'm not saying with any certainty this will develop, I would say there's still a very good chance. Its biggest challenge is isolating and separating from the itcz. Dmax and dmin are obviously factors in the amount of convection a system can sustain, but there are many other factors at play here. This scenario has happened again and again. A system looks dead and suddenly comes back to life the following day or two. usually the second go around is the time when "true" development takes place. I can't remember if it were dean or felix, and someone else has already mentioned this, but it took a few days before the system really got going. And as I've mentioned above its one biggest struggle is its latitude and interaction with the itcz. At this time there are no other masses of convection in its immediately proximity competing for convection, as StormW mentioned, there is another smaller vorticity in the vicinity competing with our main player. So basically what we have is broad cyclonic rotation. My point is that this is not dead, because it never really was anything to begin with, but it does still have just as good a chance as it ever did at developing. It doesn't look as good as it did, when many people where saying it should be a TD or invest simply because convection has diminished. There never was a surface low that we know of, so it probably never should have even been an invest. Just because the convection resembles a stronger system on satellite doesn't mean it's weaker or stronger, or more or less developed. It most certainly will need to gain some latitude soon as it approaches s america, and tonight it should be able to build some convection again. Tomorrow if things haven't changed, we can probably assume its really running out of time and then it will be understandable to start truly writing this one off.
I am really going to bed this time and just for the record so I can eat my crow, I said last night this wave will hit orange status before it goes away. In 4-5 days it will hit unfavroable conditions as the I feel the models are over aggresive in reducing shear levels. By Saturday or Sunday we will know one way or the other. Have a good night all this was fun.
Alright guys, there are a thousand steps that have to happen in order and we are on number 8, you guys are talking about number 692.



;)
Quoting CybrTeddy:


But im not going to ignore him for voicing his opinion. Thats not how I roll.


No, I was not saying that. He does not understand that weak systems' tend to struggle during DMIN. I was not saying put him on ignore.
Oh well, my bedtime too. I leave you with a top ten list:

Top Ten Reasons Hurricane Season is Like Christmas

10. Decorating the house (boarding up windows).
9. Dragging out boxes that haven't been used since last season (camping gear, flashlights).
8. Last minute shopping in crowded stores.
7. Regular TV shows pre-empted for "specials".
6. Family coming to stay with you.
5. Family and friends from out-of-state calling.
4. Buying food you don't normally buy ... and in large quantities.
3. Days off from work.
2. Candles.

1 And the number one reason Hurricane Season is like Christmas...At some point you know you're going to have a tree in your house!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


But im not going to ignore him for voicing his opinion. Thats not how I roll.


Really?
Quoting AllStar17:


No, I was not saying that. He does not understand that weak systems' tend to struggle during DMIN. I was not saying put him on ignore.


yea I know what you meant, didn't infer anything from that post. Just people ignore and ridicule other people for posting their opinions, and I won't do that. Just stating the inaccuracies. ;)
nvm
Quoting presslord:


please translate into English....ty
see post regarding drinking and posting...
1143. GatorWX
Quoting mikatnight:
Good Evening All,

With all due respect – I don’t want to ruffle any feathers – but I was wondering, is there some sort of list of credentials or qualifications for the various blog members, so that one might be better able to discern to some degree the weight of a writer’s opinion? I assume not everyone is an actual meteorologist, and I do know that some – like StormW – may not have the paper, but their opinions are never-the-less regarded with respect by other members, and even in some cases – like StormW – by other meteorologists. I’ve clicked on a few icons, but I don’t think I’ve ever seen anyone “put their shingle out” as it were. So I was thinking there ought to be a list; sort of a brief summary of the main “clique” members, you know, kind of a “here we are – love us or leave us” deal. Yesno?


There would be a war of words if we started answering this. There are about 7 or 8 that I personally rely on here and do not wish to mention names. Just pay attention to what people say, who others direct their questions at and the responses they give. After a day or two, you'll figure it out.
El Nino Effect Scales Back Hurricane Forecast

AP Staff reporter

August 4, 2009
FORT COLLINS, CO - Colorado State University researcher William Gray has slightly downgraded his forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Gray said Tuesday his team now expects 10 named storms, including four hurricanes, two of them major.

In June, the team forecast 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of them major.

Gray says the forecast was scaled back because El Nino conditions are expected to intensify. El Nino conditions suppress hurricane formation.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 till Nov. 30.

This is Gray's 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others, but many say long-range forecasts have little practical value beyond focusing public attention on the dangers.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


But im not going to ignore him for voicing his opinion. Thats not how I roll.
kudos
Quoting mikatnight:
Oh well, my bedtime too. I leave you with a top ten list:

Top Ten Reasons Hurricane Season is Like Christmas

10. Decorating the house (boarding up windows).
9. Dragging out boxes that haven't been used since last season (camping gear, flashlights).
8. Last minute shopping in crowded stores.
7. Regular TV shows pre-empted for "specials".
6. Family coming to stay with you.
5. Family and friends from out-of-state calling.
4. Buying food you don't normally buy ... and in large quantities.
3. Days off from work.
2. Candles.

1 And the number one reason Hurricane Season is like Christmas...At some point you know you're going to have a tree in your house!
needs to be sent to Letterman
1147. 7544
Quoting Tazmanian:
El Nino Effect Scales Back Hurricane Forecast

AP Staff reporter

August 4, 2009
FORT COLLINS, CO - Colorado State University researcher William Gray has slightly downgraded his forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Gray said Tuesday his team now expects 10 named storms, including four hurricanes, two of them major.

In June, the team forecast 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of them major.

Gray says the forecast was scaled back because El Nino conditions are expected to intensify. El Nino conditions suppress hurricane formation.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 till Nov. 30.

This is Gray's 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others, but many say long-range forecasts have little practical value beyond focusing public attention on the dangers.
\\

thanks not much of a big change we wait watch and see . things should pick up soon lets hope we dont get one after another but looks like that might just happen
1148. GatorWX
Quoting Tazmanian:
El Nino Effect Scales Back Hurricane Forecast

AP Staff reporter

August 4, 2009
FORT COLLINS, CO - Colorado State University researcher William Gray has slightly downgraded his forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Gray said Tuesday his team now expects 10 named storms, including four hurricanes, two of them major.

In June, the team forecast 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of them major.

Gray says the forecast was scaled back because El Nino conditions are expected to intensify. El Nino conditions suppress hurricane formation.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 till Nov. 30.

This is Gray's 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others, but many say long-range forecasts have little practical value beyond focusing public attention on the dangers.


Taz, remember the forecasts in 2004? They (Gray and NHC both lowered expectations in their later forecast because of el nino conditions shaping up. Boy, were they wrong. They both downgraded their forecasts from earlier on.
Quoting Tazmanian:
El Nino Effect Scales Back Hurricane Forecast

AP Staff reporter

August 4, 2009
FORT COLLINS, CO - Colorado State University researcher William Gray has slightly downgraded his forecast for the 2009 Atlantic hurricane season.

Gray said Tuesday his team now expects 10 named storms, including four hurricanes, two of them major.

In June, the team forecast 11 named storms, including five hurricanes, two of them major.

Gray says the forecast was scaled back because El Nino conditions are expected to intensify. El Nino conditions suppress hurricane formation.

The hurricane season runs from June 1 till Nov. 30.

This is Gray's 26th year of forecasting hurricanes. His predictions are watched closely by emergency responders and others, but many say long-range forecasts have little practical value beyond focusing public attention on the dangers.


They scaled it back 1 named storm, not that big of a deal. Also TSR actually increased their forecast

Clearly they dont feel El Nino will have as much of an impact on the season as many here have shown.
Quoting mikatnight:
Oh well, my bedtime too. I leave you with a top ten list:

Top Ten Reasons Hurricane Season is Like Christmas

10. Decorating the house (boarding up windows).
9. Dragging out boxes that haven't been used since last season (camping gear, flashlights).
8. Last minute shopping in crowded stores.
7. Regular TV shows pre-empted for "specials".
6. Family coming to stay with you.
5. Family and friends from out-of-state calling.
4. Buying food you don't normally buy ... and in large quantities.
3. Days off from work.
2. Candles.

1 And the number one reason Hurricane Season is like Christmas...At some point you know you're going to have a tree in your house!


LMAO! That so reminds me about the Late Night Show with David Letterman. Thats awesome!
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


They scaled it back 1 named storm, not that big of a deal. Also TSR actually increased their forecast

Clearly they dont feel El Nino will have as much of an impact on the season as many here have shown.


TSR's increase is a bit skeptical to me. Their reasoning behind it wasn't exactly very supportive of the activity they suggest. CSU could be closer. Again, anything can happen I guess but for now 13 could be too high.
1152. GatorWX
I think our wave in c atl may have entrained some dry air or african dust, which may be why this system is currently struggling a bit to fire off some new convection. Although the main SAL air mass is a good distance to its north, there is still a good bit of dry air to its immediate north.
It's gonna be a long 20 days..... Then school is back in and we can have a party!
Quoting mikatnight:
Oh well, my bedtime too. I leave you with a top ten list:

Top Ten Reasons Hurricane Season is Like Christmas

10. Decorating the house (boarding up windows).
9. Dragging out boxes that haven't been used since last season (camping gear, flashlights).
8. Last minute shopping in crowded stores.
7. Regular TV shows pre-empted for "specials".
6. Family coming to stay with you.
5. Family and friends from out-of-state calling.
4. Buying food you don't normally buy ... and in large quantities.
3. Days off from work.
2. Candles.

1 And the number one reason Hurricane Season is like Christmas...At some point you know you're going to have a tree in your house!


WOW, I absolutely loved it, they're all very true.
1155. BDAwx
I think it almost doesn't matter how many storms form... (except if multiple storms head the same way)
whats more important is where they go and how strong they are when they get there. However it is unrealistic to expect such a forecast because it is difficult for forecast models to see that far into the future with accuracy and consistency. So instead of making these forecasts of how many storms form it would be more productive to make a forecast, although understandably, relatively difficult, to show where storms would go if they form, on a monthly basis not seasonally.

BTW Pacific's looking pretty busy, ignore the Atlantic for now!!!
Quoting cchsweatherman:


LMAO! That so reminds me about the Late Night Show with David Letterman. Thats awesome!
good one and so very true
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Tropical Storm "KIKO" has maintained its strength while moving West Northwestward.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #5
============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Tropical Storm Kiko (Morakot) located at 22.8°N 133.0°E or 1,030 kms east northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 km/h (55 knots) with gustiness of 120 km/h (65 knots).

Additional Information
=====================
This disturbance is expected to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over Luzon and Western Visayas.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concern are advised to take approriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.
Quoting mikatnight:
Oh well, my bedtime too. I leave you with a top ten list:

Top Ten Reasons Hurricane Season is Like Christmas

10. Decorating the house (boarding up windows).
9. Dragging out boxes that haven't been used since last season (camping gear, flashlights).
8. Last minute shopping in crowded stores.
7. Regular TV shows pre-empted for "specials".
6. Family coming to stay with you.
5. Family and friends from out-of-state calling.
4. Buying food you don't normally buy ... and in large quantities.
3. Days off from work.
2. Candles.

1 And the number one reason Hurricane Season is like Christmas...At some point you know you're going to have a tree in your house!

This gets my vote as most quotable quote!
Very clever. Yes. It's a Letterman shoe-in!


GFDL: Cat 2
1160. Relix
So, huh, anything new with the CATL wave? or did it poof?
For goodness sakes...just looked at our Baby Depression.
It's rockin' and rollin' in the ICTZ with more than one center.
Link
Puhleese.
Remember what time of year it is.
It's just rolling around in the cradle.
Let's see what happens in the next couple of days.
Prepare the crow. Someone's going to eat it!
1163. msphar
Looks poofy to me.
I know many of you guys don't like The Weather Channel, but, I think Dr. Lyons knows his stuff, and he gives the southern central Atlantic disturbence almost no chance of developement, especially as it approaches the islands where the westerly winds, he says, will remain strong. I guess we'll see.
Quoting Relix:
So, huh, anything new with the CATL wave? or did it poof?

It's not poofed, but it has not developed. It appears to be trying to develop a new center near 12N and 30W
1166. Relix
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It's not poofed, but it has not developed. It appears to be trying to develop a new center near 12N and 33-32W


So this is more Northerly that predicted, which means it will probably become a fish storm right?
1167. 7544
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It's not poofed, but it has not developed. It appears to be trying to develop a new center near 12N and 30W


local news states the . Chicklit wave coul
Quoting Relix:


So this is more Northerly that predicted, which means it will probably become a fish storm right?

The whole area is so disorganized it is not easy to say whether it will develop never mind where it will go.
1169. 7544
local mets just stated that . Chicklits wave could become a td in 24 to 48 hours im on board with her also
Look at the shear tendency near Cuba and Jamaica. Could we be witnessing some shear dropping in the Caribbean?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Hope people in Hawaii have supplies...



i give up...
Quoting Relix:


So this is more Northerly that predicted, which means it will probably become a fish storm right?

That depends on when it lifts out of the ITCZ
I wonder if people on here forget hawaii is part of the united states... i mean its possible a major hurricane could hit there this weekend and no one seems to care...
1174. msphar
I don't sweat Hawaii. Those two big mountains should deflect any wind that comes their way. Its the nasty CV waves that I worry about.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I wonder if people on here forget hawaii is part of the united states... i mean its possible a major hurricane could hit there this weekend and no one seems to care...

It is expected to weaken some because of cooler SST's. Some people also think that he track is incorrect so far out.
Quoting 7544:
local mets just stated that . Chicklits wave could become a td in 24 to 48 hours im on board with her also
There is a bunch of activity between 30 and 40W that could all consolidate, finally, into a depression. It's just a nice, comfy situation for those little blobs, isn't it?! For Pete's sake, relax. Nature will do what nature does best, which is exactly what She feels like doing!
Think of people you know who you'd like to control but they just never do precisely what you had in mind. Think of yourself. You vow you're going to behave a certain way and then don't. That's what the weather is like. We'd like to impose order on it, but it just does what it wants and we have to stand by and watch it. Personally, I think those little blobs are just bobbing around out there mindlessly and eventually, they'll wind up in a configuration that could be torn apart by shear or not. It really doesn't matter, except if you are in the path and need to be prepared. So it's best to err on the side of caution and figure they may be able to get themselves in a configuration to harness that scattered energy. It is energy, after all, we are watching here, right?! Anyway, I meander myself, but that's cuz I'm under lots of pressure! So goodnight...and thanks for the company! BTW, the crow is being prepared as we speak and should be ready in a couple of days.
Quoting msphar:
I don't sweat Hawaii. Those two big mountains should deflect any wind that comes their way. Its the nasty CV waves that I worry about.


exactly my point....
Does the NHC mention our wave in the 8:00 pm Tropical weather discussion, coudn't find it?
1179. GatorWX
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Look at the shear tendency near Cuba and Jamaica. Could we be witnessing some shear dropping in the Caribbean?


Looks to me shear is on the increase per the map. That's quite a small area you mentioned.
Quoting GatorWX:


Looks to me shear is on the increase per the map. That's quite a small area you mentioned.

It could be a start. You never know.
What I see is two distinct areas now

First area is around 38W looks like it has mid level cyclonic turning and some convection; structure wise it looks decent

Second area is around 32W, this is where the surface reflection was found early, this area looks more disorganized

If this entire area between 30W-38W is treated as one entity, then the fact that it is so broad makes it looks disorganized as a whole.

The little scattering of thingamablobs is entering lower shear. It will look different in the morning. Everything always does!
Sleep well and dream of beautiful places!
As far as credentials go, the good thing is, you don't need them to post on this site. If you want them, go to NHC site. Link
36-37W, very pronounced turning there

I have a feeling that once the area back by 30W either breaks away or dissipates, the area at 38W will have a better shot to develop.

Its almost like the area at 30W is robbing energy from the area further to its west.
1184. BDAwx
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It is expected to weaken some because of cooler SST's. Some people also think that he track is incorrect so far out.


yes but the point is that its a more immediate threat not because its threatening land right now but because it has formed already unlike the Atlantic AOI..


pronounced turning here too...
1186. GBguy88
Quoting msphar:
I don't sweat Hawaii. Those two big mountains should deflect any wind that comes their way. Its the nasty CV waves that I worry about.


Right, right...Hurricane Iniki was no sweat :)
1187. BDAwx
Quoting GBguy88:


Right, right...Hurricane Iniki was no sweat :)


I think that was sarcasm...
like i always say sarcasm doesn't work in text...
Quoting GBguy88:


Right, right...Hurricane Iniki was no sweat :)


first of all, mountains just dont stop winds... and second what about storm surge??? not just a wind with a hurricane
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
36-37W, very pronounced turning there

I have a feeling that once the area back by 30W either breaks away or dissipates, the area at 38W will have a better shot to develop.

Its almost like the area at 30W is robbing energy from the area further to its west.

The only problem is mid-level shear
1190. msphar
I'm not sure I can agree with you VA. I have interests in both areas. Its just a judgement call on my part.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It's not poofed, but it has not developed. It appears to be trying to develop a new center near 12N and 30W


And that is a must for it's survival beyond 24-48, no?
1192. msphar
My Hawaiian interest is at 1000 feet above MSL and 13000 feet below the mountain tops. I think those two mountains will have a significant impact on the wind/rain any storm may bring.
1193. GatorWX
At the moment the storm is only forecast to be a ts in the vicinity of Hawaii, 2nd, the track (at this point) is forecast to be well south of Hawaii, and unless there is an immediate threat in the Pacific, this blog mainly focuses on the Alantic basin. Should the storm affect Hawaii with any ferocity and there is still no major activity in the Atlantic, then I would imagine focus will shift towards the cpac. I simply want to clarify why there's not much attention being given to the Pacific.
1194. msphar
The difference between Kuaui and the Big Island is significant. One should pick one's island carefully.
Felicia
Quoting GatorWX:
At the moment the storm is only forecast to be a ts in the vicinity of Hawaii, 2nd, the track (at this point) is forecast to be well south of Hawaii, and unless there is an immediate threat in the Pacific, this blog mainly focuses on the Alantic basin. Should the storm affect Hawaii with any ferocity and there is still no major activity in the Atlantic, then I would imagine focus will shift towards the cpac. I simply want to clarify why there's not much attention being given to the Pacific.




well the GFS has it going just north, and the NOGAPS is right at it. So its not a sure thing to go south.
Quoting Elena85Vet:


And that is a must for it's survival beyond 24-48, no?

It pretty much is, and the vorticity at the lower levels around there is pretty good although it is a little bit broad.

700mb:


850mb:
1198. BDAwx
Quoting GatorWX:
At the moment the storm is only forecast to be a ts in the vicinity of Hawaii, 2nd, the track (at this point) is forecast to be well south of Hawaii, and unless there is an immediate threat in the Pacific, this blog mainly focuses on the Alantic basin. Should the storm affect Hawaii with any ferocity and there is still no major activity in the Atlantic, then I would imagine focus will shift towards the cpac. I simply want to clarify why there's not much attention being given to the Pacific.


Ok
but in my opinion all there is to talk about in the Atlantic has been over talked about
1199. GatorWX
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:




well the GFS has it going just north, and the NOGAPS is right at it. So its not a sure thing to go south.


I know, I guess "well south" was a poor choice of words, but south nonetheless. My main point was it's weakened intensity forecasted.
Iniki II...hide the chickens!
Quoting GatorWX:


I know, I guess "well south" was a poor choice of words, but south nonetheless. My main point was it's weakened intensity forecasted.


true, but intensity forcasts beyond 3 days are very hard to predict, yesterday they said felcia wouldnt be a hurricane until tomorrow, and its probably gonna be a cat 4. by tomorrow.
Does anyone see anything interesting in the bottom left part of this image.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Does anyone see anything interesting in the bottom left part of this image.

some divergence
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Does anyone see anything interesting in the bottom left part of this image.


At 30? How bout' that?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:

some divergence


Quoting Elena85Vet:


At 30? How bout' that?


I thought I saw a bit of a wind shift at 30W
I do believe that little pocket of Cuba and decreasing shear near is expanding.


You can go to the CIMSS website and use the time step function and you will see it grow a little bit bigger
good monind
How far west does this wave have to go, to not be in such dry air?
Quoting stormsurge39:
How far west does this wave have to go, to not be in such dry air?


When i look at this wave on the satt, it looks a very good cylonic swirl with no (Clothes). When it good convection around it again, i dont think it will have any problem developing into ANA.
So when Felicia crosses into the CPAC, will its' name change?
Quoting FloridaTigers:
So when Felicia crosses into the CPAC, will its' name change?


The name is name when was created, so still Felicia.
Quoting stormsurge39:
When i look at this wave on the satt, it looks a very good cylonic swirl with no (Clothes). When it good convection around it again, i dont think it will have any problem developing into ANA.

It has good vorticity and IMO I agree that it needs some convection to organize further.
Me and my new rototiller are still waiting for the storms.
Yellow Circle is gone now

oh well lol, now we dont have to monitor it every second

time for bed
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:
Yellow Circle is gone now

oh well lol, now we dont have to monitor it every second

time for bed

In the morning there will be some uproar.
Yeah,I'm beginning to think this wave aint gonna develop into anything. I'd be surprised if we got development by mid-August.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

In the morning there will be some uproar.


why?
It very well could fire back before morning like some other systems when they were deactivated.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
It very well could fire back before morning like some other systems when they were deactivated.


deactivated? it was never activated lol
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

It has good vorticity and IMO I agree that it needs some convection to organize further.


Wave has lost a lot of power, but still is there so the future is not clear.
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


why?

Everyone will trade I told you so's then another group will come saying it still has a chance.
1228. Fshhead
Mmmmm yellow circle go poof? LOL
Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


deactivated? it was never activated lol

I meant the circle lol
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
It very well could fire back before morning like some other systems when they were deactivated.


There are no signs of it forming new convection... DMAX is in about an hour or so. It better get going soon or it will dissipate tomorrow or tomorrow night. A circulation cannot sustain itself without convection...simple.
1231. Drakoen
All is quiet in the Atlantic Basin
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


There are no signs of it forming new convection... DMAX is in about an hour so it better get going soon or it will dissipate tomorrow. A circulation cannot sustain itself without convection...simple.


I know...but things in the tropics seem to change quickly when everybody goes to sleep
Quoting weatherwatcher12:


I know...but things in the tropics seem to change quickly when everybody goes to sleep


This is an extremely weak tropical wave...Im not trying to downcast anything but it is more than likely that nothing will change between now and 8am.
Ah well.. lotta bashing and arguing come sunrise.
with of course the '4 named or less' predictions. They've been doing that every time something doesn't develop.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:


This is an extremely weak tropical wave...Im not trying to downcast anything but it is more than likely that nothing will change between now and 8am.

Probably
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ah well.. lotta bashing and arguing come sunrise.
with of course the '4 named or less' predictions. They've been doing that every time something doesn't develop.

I expect we will hear the "0.0.0" thing again
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Ah well.. lotta bashing and arguing come sunrise.
with of course the '4 named or less' predictions. They've been doing that every time something doesn't develop.

Despite the lack of tropical activity...I think we can see somewhere near 9 storms.
Why wouldnt the NHC keep the yellow cir up just for precaution? What ive been hearing and reading is that this wave would take a couple of days from now,if and when it developes. I know they have a reason, just dont understand.
Very nice tropical cyclone.

Felicia CAT2 hurricane good chance to be a Major

975mb 95mph gust 120mph
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I expect we will hear the "0.0.0" thing again


Yup, that'll probably come from Ike, first thing tomorrow morning, you'll see.
But for how much longer, Drakoen?
Quoting Claudette1234:
Felicia CAT2 hurricane good chance to be a Major

975mb 95mph gust 120mph


Its at 100mph.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I expect we will hear the "0.0.0" thing again


I lol'ed at the 'government seeding' to dissipate tropical cyclones conspiracy someone put here. Got a hoot out of that.
1245. Drakoen
Quoting WeatherStudent:
But for how much longer, Drakoen?


Give it untill mid August. The HPC forecast for an upward MJO pulse lasting 2-3 weeks making note that we are overdue for a good MJO phase. During this period we could have consecutive cyclones forming as shear becomes more favorable in the MDR region in mid to late August.
1246. Drakoen
Quoting Stormchaser2007:

Despite the lack of tropical activity...I think we can see somewhere near 9 storms.


I agree.
Quoting stormsurge39:
Why wouldnt the NHC keep the yellow cir up just for precaution? What ive been hearing and reading is that this wave would take a couple of days from now,if and when it developes. I know they have a reason, just dont understand.
Well, they have done very well with this wave as of yet. A yellow circle doesn't mean a wave will never turn into a storm; it simply means it won't in the next 48 hours. And I assure you that the wave we've all been watching will not be a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours. Let the NHC do its thing.
Quoting Drakoen:


Give it untill mid August. The HPC forecast for an upward MJO pulse lasting 2-3 weeks making note that we are overdue for a good MJO phase. During this period we could have consecutive cyclones forming as shear becomes more favorable in the MDR region in mid to late August.


Absolutely, the latter half of the recent GFS Model runs have been depicting this recently. Have you've noticed? So much or less so, by around mid to late next week we should begin to see activity pick up in earnest, then? Also, when this critters begin to form consecutively as you just mentioned previously, would most of these storms get out to sea or threaten land, given the steering pattern?
Freak91, Thanks,and believe me i definetly know the NHC knows what thier doing. I was confused about the 48 hours out, compared to what the mets are saying for possible low developement later this week.
What about 12N 32W?
Does this wave stretch form 30w to 40w?
1252. Drakoen
Felicia continues to track a little north of her forecast points.
1253. code1
Fish storm for EPAC and ATL this year! It's written in stone somewhere you know.
.
1255. code1
I hear you KM, just making fun on a no sleep night!
Quoting code1:
I hear you KM, just making fun on a no sleep night!


lol, it's cool.

Hard to differentiate (at least for me) between satire and seriousness through text.
1257. code1
Understand. No satire now. I am seriously gonna try for a sandman visit now. Take care!
MORAKOT is a Typhoon CAT1

TY 0908 (Morakot)
Issued at 06:50 UTC, 5 August 2009

Scale Large
Intensity Strong
Center position N22°35'(22.6°)
E132°05'(132.1°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(11kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #17
TYPHOON MORAKOT (T0908)
15:00 PM JST August 5 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South of Japan

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Morakot (970 hPa) located at 22.6N 132.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 65 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The typhoon is reported as west at 11 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T4.0

Storm-force Winds
==================
50 NM from the center

Gale-force Winds
================
325 NM from the center in the southern quadrant
240 NM from the center in the northern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 23.8N 126.6E - 85 knots (CAT 4/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 25.5N 122.8E - 90 knots (CAT 4/Typhoon)
72 HRS: 26.9N 118.9E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
Last prediction of JMA was optimist.

i said 12-24 was a typhoon an it is, and who knows would be a Major, not too much chance but a little.

oh I don't know Claudette.. that "Severe Typhoon" sign (90kts 925 hPa) in the forecast is scary looking
HadesGodWyvern

which is the 1st islands to touch it for the typhoon?
FKPQ30 RJTD 050600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090805/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: MORAKOT
NR: 9
PSN: N2235 E13205
MOV: W 11KT
C: 970HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 05/1200Z N2250 E13050
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 05/1800Z N2310 E12925
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 06/0000Z N2330 E12800
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 06/0600Z N2350 E12635
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 85KT

---
increasing in intensity every 6 hours..
Looks like the WannaBe Ana went POOF....not really that unexpected when embedded within the ITCZ! Still has some life tho as it moves West!
Ryukyu Islands near Taiwan which is like Okinawa region
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
oh I don't know Claudette.. that "Severe Typhoon" sign (90kts 925 hPa) in the forecast is scary looking


Yeah looks dangerous. Hope will lose power near China coast. China doesnt need another catastrophe, they have a bad year with rain and flooding.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
FKPQ30 RJTD 050600
TC ADVISORY
DTG: 20090805/0600Z
TCAC: TOKYO
TC: MORAKOT
NR: 9
PSN: N2235 E13205
MOV: W 11KT
C: 970HPA
MAX WIND: 65KT
FCST PSN +6HR: 05/1200Z N2250 E13050
FCST MAX WIND +6HR: 70KT
FCST PSN +12HR: 05/1800Z N2310 E12925
FCST MAX WIND +12HR: 75KT
FCST PSN +18HR: 06/0000Z N2330 E12800
FCST MAX WIND +18HR: 80KT
FCST PSN +24HR: 06/0600Z N2350 E12635
FCST MAX WIND +24HR: 85KT

---
increasing in intensity every 6 hours..
Definitely intensifying steadily.....looking mean on satellite imagery
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #15
TROPICAL STORM GONI (T0907)
15:00 PM JST August 5 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category One Typhoon Overland South China

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Goni (992 hPa) located at 21.9N 112.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as almost stationary

RMSC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 21.7N 111.5E - Tropical Depression

---
heh pressure is falling again.. cyclone center is still near the coast
ya China has had many flooding cyclones this year
Typhoon MORAKOT

Hurricane FELICIA

Hurricane FELICIA is shown to reach CAT 3 but then slow to a tropical storm by the weekend when it approaches Hawaii. What would cause the storm to decrease? It seems there would be ample energy/warm water to feed Felicia.
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Warning #7
==============================
At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm NINE (MORAKOT) located at 22.8N 132.2E or 325 NM southeast of Okinawa (Japan) has sustained winds of 55 knots with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 10 knots.

Significant wave height associated with 09W is 19 feet

---
now who is being conservative with how strong a cyclone is.
Quoting casadunlap:
Hurricane FELICIA is shown to reach CAT 3 but then slow to a tropical storm by the weekend when it approaches Hawaii. What would cause the storm to decrease? It seems there would be ample energy/warm water to feed Felicia.


Vertical shear.
METEO FRANCE
Eastern Atlantic
High Sea Forecast

Tropical wave along 24/26W and south of 17N moving westward at 10
kts.

Surface trough along 30/31W from 5N to 16N, moving slowly westward.

Heat low 1008 in west of Mauritania along 20N.

ITCZ along 12N 16W 13N 24W 08N 32W 10N 50W.





Felicia has now a clear eye.
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009)
9:00 AM UTC August 5 2009
====================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Felicia (970 hPa) located at 13.4N 128.2W or 1190 NM west-southwest of of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west-northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane-force Winds
====================
30 NM from the center

Gale/Storm-force Winds
===============
75 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.1N 129.5W - 100 knots (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 15.1N 131.2W - 105 knots (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 17.1N 134.6W - 90 knots (SSHS-2 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 18.5N 139.0W - 75 knots (SSHS-1 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 15.1N 131.2W - 105 knots (SSHS-3 Cyclone)

impressive 120mph 200km/h
Quoting CybrTeddy:


I lol'ed at the 'government seeding' to dissipate tropical cyclones conspiracy someone put here. Got a hoot out of that.


1244: Why did you laugh, agreed not applicable to this year, its SAL and shear that are affecting waves right now, but seeding did occur in the 70's, does work but affects subsequent years rain patterns.
Just checked out the topics for the first time since yesterday morning. I was expecting to see an invest and instead our AOI is gone. I can't believe that the first week of August is almost gone and still not a single storm.
why care about the epac no one but fish will ever care. i sure aint waisting my computer space downloading stuff. our atlantic itz low is gone but looks like the energy is transfering to a spot that might be more favorable
1282. IKE
Quoting IKE:


I'm not seeing much spin anymore.


And I got raked over the coals by someone over my comment.

I see the yellow circle is gone.

I guess the wishcasters can now head back into hiding until the real season starts.

GFS...wrong.
CMC...wrong.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Just checked out the topics for the first time since yesterday morning. I was expecting to see an invest and instead our AOI is gone. I can't believe that the first week of August is almost gone and still not a single storm.


Yea, it does. But where you fall, you get up dust off yourself and keep going. Ana will will eventually come, most likely with the next MJO. Also the season is not a dud or the seasonal forecasts would of gone down alot more. They know something most of us know here.
morning
The area of interest associated with a tropical wave in the eastern atlantic, has lost most of the convection .the trough/tropical wave is now reduced to an area of mid cyclonic turning near 9N 37W. the wave is moving west at 15 MPH. although the area is devoid of any significant convection, it has been able to mentain it's structure. the wave /trough is under 5-10 knots of vertical wind shear and warm SST near 29 deg C. although the wave still has potential to develop, it will be difficult because of the dry air to the west and north of the system which might preclude any form of organisation. this wave could be the precursor of things to come,and may have paved the way for the two strong waves. one is at 5 deg W and the other over central africa.this could be the period that the GFS has been predicting for increase cyclogenesis. it is also the time frame when the MJO is forecast for an upward pulse in the atlantic. we just have to wait. one should still keep an eye on the CATL wave since it still has a mid level structure and in in the tropics things can change so quickly.
1287. IKE
00Z ECMWF shows plenty of action in the east-PAC and continues to show nothing significant in the Atlantic through August 15th.
Quoting IKE:


And I got raked over the coals by someone over my comment.

I see the yellow circle is gone.

I guess the wishcasters can now head back into hiding until the real season starts.

GFS...wrong.
CMC...wrong.



lol Ike

I hope you right. August 15th is a little too aggressive.

I am going for August 10-12

Good morning 456

Felicia looks impressive

GFS model gives still hurrican CAT very near to Hawai coast.

Other models as TS

Hey, who took the yellow circle?
1291. IKE
Quoting futuremet:



lol Ike

I hope you right. August 15th is a little too aggressive.

I am going for August 10-12


The only model that shows anything before Aug. 15th is the CMC. Shows a TS heading west in the EATL.

I said no named-storm through Aug. 15th. Until the ECMWF shows something, I'm not believing it.


Quoting WeatherStudent:


Yup, that'll probably come from Ike, first thing tomorrow morning, you'll see.


0-0-0.
Quoting leftovers:
why care about the epac no one but fish will ever care. i sure aint waisting my computer space downloading stuff. our atlantic itz low is gone but looks like the energy is transfering to a spot that might be more favorable


But, Felicia might threaten Hawaii next week.

1293. MahFL
The blob is alive....also further north, out of the ITZ ?
It could develop better now.
Someone call Mayor Nagan !
If the 2010 hurricane season is active, I bet you some folkes here will forget the pessimistic attitude they had in 2009.

1295. WxLogic
Morning...
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Hey, who took the yellow circle?


The NHC giveth and taketh away.
Quoting IKE:


The only model that shows anything before Aug. 15th is the CMC. Shows a TS heading west in the EATL.

I said no named-storm through Aug. 15th. Until the ECMWF shows something, I'm not believing it.




0-0-0.


Well, for this run...
Quoting WPBHurricane05:


But, Felicia might threaten Hawaii next week.



yea, the GFS has her moving over the islands as a TD, possibly a a weak TS.
Tropical wave in the CATL has finally left the ITCZ. Let us see what it does today.
Quoting Weather456:


yea, the GFS has her moving over the islands as a TD, possibly a a weak TS.


I think a minimal cane or a strong TS will impact Hawaii. The models strengthen it each run.
1301. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
417 AM AST WED AUG 5 2009

.SYNOPSIS...A TUTT WITH AXIS ACROSS THE MONA PASSAGE IS TO EVOLVE
INTO A CLOSED LOW OVER HISPANIOLA BY THU. MEANWHILE...TROPICAL
WAVE ALONG 55W TO MOVE ACROSS THE ISLANDS ON THU. STRONG
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO BUILD SW INTO THE ERN CARIBBEAN FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...LOCAL AREA WILL BE ON THE EAST SIDE OF TUTT AXIS
THIS AFTERNOON WHICH TYPICALLY IS A FAVORABLE PLACE OF CONVECTION.
HOWEVER...MOISTURE REMAINS MODEST AT BEST WITH PWAT VALUES AROUND
1.65 INCHES. WHILE THERE WILL STILL BE CONVECTION ON THE WEST THIS
AFTERNOON WIDESPREAD EXCESSIVE AMTS ARE NOT EXPECTED.

TROPICAL WAVE ALONG 55W IS FCST TO CROSS THE AREA ON THU. ALTHOUGH
NO DEEP CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS WAVE AT THE MOMENT
WAVE IS LIKELY TO GET MORE ACTIVE AS IT APPROACHES PR/USVI AS IT
BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH EAST SIDE OF TUTT LOW FCST TO EVOLVE
ACROSS HISPANIOLA. ALTHOUGH AN INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE CONVERAGE IS
ANTICIPATED WITH THIS WAVE VERTICAL SHEAR WILL REMAIN TOO STRONG
ACROSS THE ERN CARIBBEAN PROHIBITIVE OF TC FORMATION.

BEHIND THE WAVE A WIND SURGE WILL FOLLOW WITH HAZE AND DUST
LIKELY FOR THE WEEKEND. STRONG MID-UPPER LVL RIDGING WILL BUILD ACROSS
THE ERN CARIBBEAN FOR FRI AND SAT LIKELY PUTTING A LID ON
CONVECTION. WAS TEMPTED TO LOWER POPS FOR FRI AND SAT AS AIR MASS
LOOKS BONE DRY.
IN ANY CASE...EXCELLENT BEACH WX EXPECTED FOR THE
WEEKEND.

REST OF THE TROPICAL ATLC REMAINS QUIET WITH NO THREAT AREAS TO
DISCUSS.


1302. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


Well, for this run...


Just keep watching the ECMWF throughout the season.
Well, well, well.

The wave that came off of Africa a few days ago, the one that "looked great and had the best chance for development so far this season"...has gone "POOF."

It's is August 5th, and still we sit at 0,0,0.

Models are not developing anything, and it could be many more days to pass before something does.

This could be a great moment in time for another poem! :)

Have a GREAT 0,0,0 day...it's AUGUST 2009! :)
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #15
TROPICAL STORM GONI (T0907)
15:00 PM JST August 5 2009, Tropical Storm Goni (992 hPa) located at 21.9N 112.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The storm is reported as almost stationary

RMSC Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Gale-force Winds
================
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 21.7N 111.5E - Tropical Depression

---
heh pressure is falling again.. cyclone center is still near the coast


Thankfully it swept wide right and Macau and western Guangdong got the worst of it. A fair bit of moderate rain and wind last night locally and another rain band just moved in.

Wondering if Goni will start to get sucked back east in to the draft of Morakot and we'll get a second shot of Goni. (and frankly I'm glad I'm not in the path of Morakot)
1305. WxLogic
Well... as expected... it was able gain some convection from DMAX. It's also higher in LAT (As it has assisted the ITCZ on going moving up to), unfortunately not enough energy associated with it at Mid levels to help it develop like 2 days ago.

Even though it does not have the backing anymore of NHC for development. I'll give it a 15% chance of at least reaching INVEST before it encounters some hostile environment that won't be strong enough to fend off.
Quoting IKE:


Just keep watching the ECMWF throughout the season.


You have a point there. But remember the ECMWF developed this feature at 3 points. But the otherwise the model is doing well.
Alot of models out here

1308. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 5 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BLAKE




FELICIA would be a Major soon.
Question: What if we get through August without a named storm? Will September get an auto-downcast or a ramp up forecast based on a 0,0,0 August?
{{POOF}}

Still there is strong 850mb turning according to CIMMS @ 11N30W which will be entering an area of lower wind shear in the next 24hrs.

IKE's favorite CMC & GFS do something with this area and the NoGaps & UKMET are hinting at the possibility of something in the area as well. I would assume this area would be 90L since it is a different entity than 99L. What else is there to watch?
"INVEST" is not a quantifiable stage of development...it's a subjective designation which allows forecasters to engage certain tools...
I am with Ike about ECMWF being the #1 model in 2009.
Question: The deeper we go into August, how likely is it that we'll get a sneaky stealth Cat V storm like '92s Andrew as the first named storm of the season?
Good Morning.
At 11n 61w, it is overcast, and very still. The sea is totally flat.
Typical August weather.
But no weather to speak of, in the entire Atlantic? Thats strange. Good. But strange.
1318. IKE
Quoting CycloneOz:
Question: What if we get through August without a named storm? Will September get an auto-downcast or a ramp up forecast based on a 0,0,0 August?


If we make it through August with a favorable MJO coming....with 0-0-0, I'll be shocked.


Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
I am with Ike about ECMWF being the #1 model in 2009.


Props. It has shown nothing substantial all season. When it starts showing healthy looking systems, I'll bite.


I was looking at the CIMSS shear map. There is no way any blob can make it through....the Caribbean or north of about 20N, from 70W on east. Up to 50 knots of westerly shear.

The GOM looks favorable with low shear. Mostly dry though.
i might be wrong and stand to be corrected.
iam seeing a small cyclonic turning near 11N 34 W. Looking at the QS of the area this morning it appears there might be a weak surface refletion
Quoting IKE:


If we make it through August with a favorable MJO coming....with 0-0-0, I'll be shocked.




Props. It has shown nothing substantial all season. When it starts showing healthy looking systems, I'll bite.


I was looking at the CIMSS shear map. There is no way any blob can make it through....the Caribbean or north of about 20N, from 70W on east. Up to 50 knots of westerly shear.

The GOM looks favorable with low shear. Mostly dry though.


Not for long bud...

post 1319.
The 'weal' you are seeing is the result of a beating-up from adverse conditions.
It's called "storm abuse".
1322. IKE
Quoting futuremet:


Not for long bud...



We'll see what happens.
1319. Shucks, you corrected it. LOL
1324. Relix
This little brave wave could do a Jeanne and become a storm just as she approaches the windward islands. Who knows, I just know it doesn't look impressive at all right now.
1325. IKE
Quoting stoormfury:
i might be wrong and stand to be corrected.
iam seeing a small cyclonic turning near 11N 34 W. Looking at the QS of the area this morning it appears there might be a weak surface refletion


I found this on that area, from the latest tropical weather discussion....

"A 1012 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N33W...MOVING NORTHWEST
15 KT. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN 32W AND
35W."

NW is drier air and shear increasing north of 16N.
Who wants to go to Hawaii?

Crow pie isn't too bad with some strong coffee...It's the bones that really bother me!
1326. futuremet 12:03 PM GMT on August 05, 2009
Who wants to go to Hawaii?


lol, i do for sure...but you know TWC is going to go non stop action over this....break out the goggles Cantore

Felicia continues to



The eyewall is starting to get the -80 deg convection on the west side. If the west side gets like the east side and the eye gets even clearer then ADT numbers will likely hit 6.5 or even up to 7.0
1330. IKE
Quoting Chicklit:
Crow pie isn't too bad with some strong coffee...It's the bones that really bother me!


You getting a helping of crow?



Here's the good news on Felicia from the latest discussion.....

"THE ENVIRONMENT AROUND FELICIA REMAINS CONDUCIVE FOR FURTHER
STRENGTHENING. THE MID-LEVEL CUT-OFF LOW NEAR CALIFORNIA IS
INDUCING DIFFLUENCE ALOFT TO THE NORTH OF FELICIA...AND IT APPEARS
THAT AN OUTFLOW JET MAY BE FORMING. VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN LIGHT OVER THE NEXT FIVE DAYS...AND OCEANIC HEAT CONTENT
SHOULD REMAIN SUFFICIENT FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT 36 HOURS. THE
NORTHWARD SHIFT IN THE TRACK FORECAST PUTS FELICIA OVER 24-25
DEGREES CELSIUS WATER AFTER 48 HOURS...AND THE NEW OFFICIAL
INTENSITY FORECAST ACCOUNTS FOR THIS BY SHOWING FASTER WEAKENING
THAN WAS INDICATED IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
IF FELICIA STAYS A
LITTLE FARTHER SOUTH...IT MIGHT BE ABLE TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY
FOR A LONGER PERIOD OF TIME.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 05/0900Z 13.4N 128.2W 90 KT
12HR VT 05/1800Z 14.1N 129.5W 100 KT
24HR VT 06/0600Z 15.1N 131.2W 105 KT
36HR VT 06/1800Z 16.1N 132.8W 100 KT
48HR VT 07/0600Z 17.1N 134.6W 90 KT
72HR VT 08/0600Z 18.5N 139.0W 75 KT
96HR VT 09/0600Z 19.0N 144.5W 65 KT
120HR VT 10/0600Z 19.0N 150.0W 50 KT"
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 AUG 2009 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 13:46:28 N Lon : 128:17:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 969.6mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.0 4.3 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.6mb

Center Temp : -54.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************


Hawaii Five-O and hr puff n stuff greatest shows back in the 70s.
ok IKE i have seenit on the surface chart. what i have also seen is that the northwest movement is due to a weakness in the steering current along 33-34w. there after the ridge flattens out to allow it to resume a west track, thereby avoiding the shear to the north
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 7.2.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 05 AUG 2009 Time : 113000 UTC
Lat : 13:46:28 N Lon : 128:17:19 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.1 / 969.6mb/ 92.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
(3hr avg)
5.0 4.3 4.3

Latitude bias adjustment to MSLP : +1.6mb

Center Temp : -54.4C Cloud Region Temp : -75.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : ATLANTIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

****************************************************




Yea it shows that it is weakening but that is because the eye is not clearly defined right now once we get a clearly defined eye we will get a more accurate reading
the Hawaian islands hardly get hit by hurricanes. sometime in recent history they received a pounding from a hurricane. the name i can't recall at this time
Quoting IKE:


And I got raked over the coals by someone over my comment.

I see the yellow circle is gone.

I guess the wishcasters can now head back into hiding until the real season starts.

GFS...wrong.
CMC...wrong.


Hey Ike! I get what you are saying, but at the same time if they show nothing or the ECMWF for that matter are the models still right though all the time? :)
OK,
Why is the SST graphic moving backward in time? It is between July 09 and May 09. Is there a reason not to put the early date first? Do they mean July 08? All the subtext is consistent with a 2 month period but why put the end date first?
I'm not usually type A, but reverse time messes with me.
1338. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Hey Ike! I get what you are saying, but at the same time if they show nothing or the ECMWF for that matter are the models still right though all the time? :)


No, but it's been correct so far.
1339. BDAwx
is this the latest date for the first named storm for the decade?
1341. IKE
Quoting stoormfury:
ok IKE i have seenit on the surface chart. what i have also seen is that the northwest movement is due to a weakness in the steering current along 33-34w. there after the ridge flattens out to allow it to resume a west track, thereby avoiding the shear to the north


If it goes back west, maybe it has a chance. NOGAPS has that vorticity getting stronger.

It does look headed just north of west, to me.
With 0,0,0 - this season so far is a dud. However, it has no bearing on what will happen from now until Nov 30.

Also, I hate it when Dr. Lyons is right...
Quoting stoormfury:
the Hawaian islands hardly get hit by hurricanes. sometime in recent history they received a pounding from a hurricane. the name i can't recall at this time
started with a (I) i believe
1344. IKE
Quoting BDAwx:
is this the latest date for the first named storm for the decade?


Looks like the answer is yes...

for once we are in agreement. as one of our bloggers might " i concur " LOL
1346. cg2916
IKE, do you remember if the ECMWF forecasted TD 1?
the famous hurricane which hit Hawaii was INOKI
00Z



06Z

Felicia will not threaten hawaii it will take in cool waters and weaken to ts or td.
1350. IKE
Quoting cg2916:
IKE, do you remember if the ECMWF forecasted TD 1?


Seems like it showed it as a low...with some convection. Nothing major(hurricane+) on it, like it's showing now in the east-PAC systems.

NOGAPS has done pretty good in 2009. It's showing the 850mb vorticity near 35W strengthening...Link

Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
1352. IKE
That low is the AOI for today in the Atlantic.
1353. cg2916
Quoting IKE:


Seems like it showed it as a low...with some convection. Nothing major(hurricane+) on it, like it's showing now in the east-PAC systems.

NOGAPS has done pretty good in 2009. It's showing the 850mb vorticity near 35W strengthening...Link


Ok, thanks. I wanted to know what model does best this season. Looks like I'm watching the NOGAPS more, with the GFDL, of course, that's always pretty reliable. The GFS and CMC seem to be very bullish this season.
1354. cg2916
Quoting IKE:
That low is the AOI for today in the Atlantic.

I guess it is.
Does anyone notice the shear dropping near Cuba, Jamaica and Haiti. It has been growing progressively bigger with each update. What is the cause?
1356. cg2916
That low doesn't look like much on the NOGAPS, just a closed low with not much conmvection.
1357. cg2916
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Does anyone notice the shear dropping near Cuba, Jamaica and Haiti. It has been growing progressively bigger with each update. What is the cause?

I don't know, but it won't make much of a difference unless shear relaxes in the waters.


MAJOR HURRICANE FELICIA

08EFELICIA.100kts-960mb-137N-1283W
Felicia gets Major Hurricane status

will see the next models to see tracks and force
Quoting Claudette1234:


MAJOR HURRICANE FELICIA

08EFELICIA.100kts-960mb-137N-1283W


Pretty Impressive.
The area in the CATL is beginning to be some iterest. with the 850mb voticity increasing, then the area will be monitored for signs of cyclogenesis.
Quoting Claudette1234:
Felicia gets Major Hurricane status

will see the next models to see tracks and force


059

WHXX01 KMIA 050728

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

0728 UTC WED AUG 5 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009) 20090805 0600 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090805 0600 090805 1800 090806 0600 090806 1800



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.1N 127.8W 14.2N 129.4W 15.4N 130.8W 16.6N 132.3W

BAMD 13.1N 127.8W 14.0N 129.6W 15.1N 131.0W 15.9N 132.5W

BAMM 13.1N 127.8W 14.0N 129.4W 15.1N 130.8W 16.1N 132.3W

LBAR 13.1N 127.8W 14.3N 129.7W 15.8N 131.7W 17.1N 133.7W

SHIP 85KTS 98KTS 104KTS 103KTS

DSHP 85KTS 98KTS 104KTS 103KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090807 0600 090808 0600 090809 0600 090810 0600



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 17.8N 133.9W 20.1N 138.8W 21.7N 144.8W 22.6N 151.0W

BAMD 16.6N 134.3W 17.9N 138.4W 19.0N 143.2W 20.0N 147.4W

BAMM 17.0N 134.0W 18.9N 138.3W 20.3N 143.4W 21.4N 148.2W

LBAR 18.1N 135.6W 19.2N 139.6W 19.2N 144.4W 19.0N 149.1W

SHIP 98KTS 82KTS 65KTS 50KTS

DSHP 98KTS 82KTS 65KTS 50KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.1N LONCUR = 127.8W DIRCUR = 295DEG SPDCUR = 10KT

LATM12 = 12.2N LONM12 = 126.1W DIRM12 = 288DEG SPDM12 = 10KT

LATM24 = 11.9N LONM24 = 123.5W

WNDCUR = 85KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 65KT

CENPRS = 975MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 75NM RD34SE = 60NM RD34SW = 45NM RD34NW = 60NM



$$

NNNN
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Does anyone notice the shear dropping near Cuba, Jamaica and Haiti. It has been growing progressively bigger with each update. What is the cause?

? any body
Ridge will build near the east coast.

Looks like the AOI went poof over nite. Not unexpected when embedded in the ITCZ. Still come energy there! Lets see what happens as it continues West. A circulation is observed out of the ITCZ near the AOI.
Quoting cg2916:

I don't know, but it won't make much of a difference unless shear relaxes in the waters.

we will see if it extends more
Quoting TampaSpin:
Looks like the AOI went poof over nite. Not unexpected when embedded in the ITCZ. Still come energy there! Lets see what happens as it continues West. A circulation is observed out of the ITCZ near the AOI.
yep the great poofer atl back to quiet for now
Can someone please post a good link to the ECMWF model?
convection is on the increase. low level clouds are streaming to the area of low pressure, indicative of good low level convergence. the increasing 850mb vortcity is also indicative of a system trying to organise
1372. IKE
Looks like that AOI is moving almost due west.

Yellow circle?
Quoting stoormfury:
convection is on the increase. low level clouds are streaming to the area of low pressure, indicative of good low level convergence. the increasing 850mb vortcity is also indicative of a system trying to organise


JUst looked at all the items you described.....none of that is accurate....sorry!
yellow circle a distinct possibility
TAMPA time will tell
1376. Patrap
G'morning Ike,everyone

1378. Patrap
Up and atum Chief..morning,

Got java?

Quoting StormW:
Good morning Pat, Ike, Tim and all!


Hi StormW
1381. Patrap
Have MRI at 10:30 CDT, so Im Java Less.
Morning all...had a few minutes this morning to check in on things. Haven't had much time this summer for learning on here - I miss it! I see the yellow circle/AOI is gone, but are conditions favorable for it to be of interest again?
1383. IKE
Good morning to all.

82 degrees outside and sunny.
1384. cg2916
Hey, everyone. Looks like we got an AOI out there.
Good morning ike

Major Felicia seems stronger and stronger, do you think can get CAT4 ?
1387. msphar
Is Pat still doing the 'Nuthin' puppet or did he get bored and drifted away ?
1388. Squid28
Okay, I googled this before I asked on here but really can not find a good answer.....

what is the cause/why does the quickScat "miss" areas during a pass every so often? I know rain can contaminate the readings, but what I am talking about is when you will see the graphic and it is just devoid of any data for a large swath of area.
1389. cg2916
Quoting IKE:
Good morning to all.

82 degrees outside and sunny.

Good morning IKE, I'm 80 and sunny, maybe a little rain later.
1390. cg2916
Quoting Patrap:
Have MRI at 10:30 CDT, so Im Java Less.

Good luck. Maybe you'll get java afterwards.
1391. Patrap
Thanks Chief,cg2916,hurricanehanna..lil Bulging disc in the ol L5.

Get to go to a Civillian MRI Suite for it,fancy smancy,LOL
Quoting Patrap:
Have MRI at 10:30 CDT, so Im Java Less.


Good luck Pat - hope everything goes well.
I do not think Felicia will get to Cat 4 till we get a clear eye around 20-40 NM wide
Quoting Squid28:
Okay, I googled this before I asked on here but really can not find a good answer.....

what is the cause/why does the quickScat "miss" areas during a pass every so often? I know rain can contaminate the readings, but what I am talking about is when you will see the graphic and it is just devoid of any data for a large swath of area.


The bird is bent.. they need a new one.
1396. cg2916
Let's get talking about the AOI in the Atlantic or Felicia.
1397. Patrap
WP092009 - Tropical Storm MORAKOT
RAAMB page




Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)



Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Good morning.

Looks like our AOI is weakening. It has fired some convection and still has some circulation (albeit weak). Felicia is still intensifying. It would not surprise me if she got to Cat. 4 before leveling off.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:

I expect we will hear the "0.0.0" thing again


Yup, that'll probably come from Ike, first thing tomorrow morning, you'll see.

0-0-0 Well no

But my original forecast from early June is starting to look pretty good.
5-2-0 First named storm Sept 2
Five named storms
Two Hurricanes
zero Major

Crow Stew, I prefer PIE, but not just yet!
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:
I do not think Felicia will get to Cat 4 till we get a clear eye around 20-40 NM wide


The NM of the eye does not matter in regards to the category, strength of the storm.
Quoting AllStar17:


The NM of the eye does not matter in regards to the category, strength of the storm.


I understand that but right now it does not even have a perfectly round eye with a warm center
Quoting AllStar17:


The NM of the eye does not matter in regards to the category, strength of the storm.

True but the Dreaded Pin Hole eye has a
significant intimidation factor, Why, its a pin hole eye!

MJFELICIA.100kts-960mb-137N-1283W
TYMORAKOT.60kts-978mb-230N-1309E
TSENRIQUE.45kts-1000mb-169N-1215W
GONI.20kts-1007mb-220N-1121E
1405. Walshy
My prediction for "09.

7-2-1

August storms = 2
September storms = 4
Other = 1

*Error can be within 5*
1406. SQUAWK
Quoting Squid28:
Okay, I googled this before I asked on here but really can not find a good answer.....

what is the cause/why does the quickScat "miss" areas during a pass every so often? I know rain can contaminate the readings, but what I am talking about is when you will see the graphic and it is just devoid of any data for a large swath of area.


OK, here is the best I can give you. The satellite is in a polar orbit. As it orbits, the earth is spinning. With the limited scan width of the satellite, it cannot cover enough of the earth on each pass to give contiguous data, so it misses a swath on each pass. That is why there are blank areas between passes.
1407. msphar
Love the puppet.
Quoting Claudette1234:

MJFELICIA.100kts-960mb-137N-1283W
TYMORAKOT.60kts-978mb-230N-1309E
TSENRIQUE.45kts-1000mb-169N-1215W
GONI.20kts-1007mb-220N-1121E


You were mentioning earlier issues with flooding in China.
HK Observatory 256K radar loop
In the HK Observatory 256Km radar loop you can clearly see TS Goni spinning away stationary just up the coast. Talk about your training t-storms. Folks on the side of the storm where it's dragging in moisture off the South China Sea must be getting some nasty amounts of rain.
1409. msphar
Looks like Felicia dies between 140W and 150W. Big island will see 'nuthin' but a few gusts above ambient winds.
Quoting Patrap:
G'morning Ike,everyone



Do you see that flare up of convection to the North East ..
1411. IKE
AOI w/a nice vort...moving into lower shear soon....

1412. hahaguy
Just looked at our aoi and it's not looking to good. But we shall see if it can get it's act together or not.
"The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) also issued a new forecast today, and have increased their numbers by 20% from their June and July forecasts."

They increased their forecast? Really? They sure are putting a lot of faith in (potentially) higher SSTs.
Quoting IKE:
AOI w/a nice vort...moving into lower shear soon....



IKE Has the Low Relocated to the Flare Up?
Good Morning.....Did not have a chance to check in last evening but the wave seems to have lost it's mojo overnight....With all of the current activity in the Pacific Basin (4 storms), I think that things will pick up in the Atlantic when the Pacific activity dies down as is often the case and that may still be a few weeks away (somewhere around the "traditional" August 14th average for August starting first storms).....In the meantime, hot and sunny around the Gulf States.
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


I understand that but right now it does not even have a perfectly round eye with a warm center


Dean was a major hurricane without a clear eye, I think.
Quoting IKE:
AOI w/a nice vort...moving into lower shear soon....



IKE, what area are you taking about? The area with high vorticity near 30W?
1419. amd
Quoting AllStar17:


Dean was a major hurricane without an eye, I think.


a clear eye is a sign of a strong hurricane, but the two are not correlated. A hurricane can be extremely strong, but not have a clear eye. The best example is hurricane opal in 1995.

Opal peaked out with winds of 150 mph, pressures below 920 mb, but did not have a clear eye, although it obviously had an eye, just not a cloud free eye.

Yeah, ECMWF isn't showing anything thru 8/15...hmmm...

Link
Quoting AllStar17:


IKE, what area are you taking about? The area with high vorticity near 30W?


I guess thats where he is referring too.....That means the AOI has not moved for 3 days.....
Quoting AllStar17:


IKE, what area are you taking about? The area with high vorticity near 30W?


The more I look at it Ike.....the thunderstorms and the highest vorticity are fairly close to each other. This might night be done yet. The easterly shear must be lessening.....this may stand a chance after all.
1423. cg2916
I think that Felicia will be 115 MPH with 960 MB at the next advisory, and if I'm worng, then I'll eat crow.
yes the low of 1012 mb is located to the south of the convection moving west. looks to be the strongest 850 mb vorticity in the catl all season. moving into low shear and warmer sst soon
Quoting stoormfury:
yes the low of 1012 mb is located to the ogof the convection moving west. looks to be the stongest 850 mb vorticity in the catl all season. moving into low shear and warmer sst soon


Lets not go that far....the vorticity is NOT the strongest we have seen all year. It is moving into warmer sst's......but right now it is only an AOI with a shot at development.
I just had a great idea for a new company.... I could start a company that sells prepackaged crow! It would be great for internet bloggers, weather freaks, and people who just like the other, OTHER white meat.
Is it just me or is the dry air wreaking havoc on the ITCZ?
Quoting cg2916:
I think that Felicia will be 115 MPH with 960 MB at the next advisory, and if I'm worng, then I'll eat crow.


I would agree with you...she is looking very good.

Quoting hurricanejunky:
Is it me or is the dry air wreaking havoc on the ITCZ?


The AOI is within a moist environment with dry air off to the NW.

Looking at the water vapor it looks like the dry air is truncating the westernmost part of the ITCZ and putting up a roadblock for the AOI's. I'm not an expert but that's what it looks like to me.
Allstar17

NAVY page gives felicia this position and forced

FELICIA.100kts-955mb-138N-1283W


wow 955mb

i seriously think about CAT4 hurricane tomorrow

Link
hi. might see less winds for its going to interfer with the trades when the lows pass bye. the kahuna protects the islands from storms coming from that direction. computer space is not infinite im saving my disk space for the atlantic
Update from XtremeHurricanes.com

The Extreme Hurricanes Team is considering travel to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday for a Monday / Tuesday intercept of Hurricane Felicia.

Final decision still 72 hours away...
Like to see the new track at NHC for Felicia
and if posible to land in Hawai as TS of CAT1 hurricane
1435. cg2916
Quoting Claudette1234:
Allstar17

NAVY page gives felicia this position and forced

FELICIA.100kts-955mb-138N-1283W


wow 955mb

i seriously think about CAT4 hurricane tomorrow

Link

In that case, change my forecast to 955 instead of 960 MB.
1436. Patrap
Quoting CycloneOz:
Update from XtremeHurricanes.com

The Extreme Hurricanes Team is considering travel to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday for a Monday / Tuesday intercept of Hurricane Felicia.

Final decision still 72 hours away...


Id read the discussion b-4 Id book a flight OZ


Hurricane Felicia Discussion Number 7



Statement as of 2:00 am PDT on August 05, 2009

satellite intensity estimates at 0600 UTC from TAFB and SAB were
t4.5 and t4.0...respectively...but since that time the satellite
presentation has continued to improve. The eye has now persisted
for several hours and continues to warm with the deepest convection
located in the eastern and southeastern semicircles. An analysis
would now yield a average data T-number of 5.0 on the Dvorak
scale...and the initial intensity is being raised to 90 kt.

Now that Felicia is a deeper system...it is being pulled a little
more to the north by a large mid- to upper-level trough located off
the U.S. West Coast. The initial motion is 300/10...and little
change to this heading is expected over the next 48 hours while the
mid-latitude trough remains nearly stationary. By days 4 and 5...
two factors will cause Felicia to turn to the west. First...the
trough will move eastward over western North America and will be
replaced by a mid-level high currently located north of Hawaii.
Second...Felicia will likely be weakening by that time and will be
influenced more strongly by the lower-level trade wind flow. There
has been a noticeable northward shift in the tightly-clustered
guidance envelope for this package...and the official forecast is
shifted northward towards the model consensus.

The environment around Felicia remains conducive for further
strengthening. The mid-level cut-off low near California is
inducing diffluence aloft to the north of Felicia...and it appears
that an outflow jet may be forming. Vertical shear is expected to
remain light over the next five days...and oceanic heat content
should remain sufficient for at least the next 36 hours. The
northward shift in the track forecast puts Felicia over 24-25
degrees celsius water after 48 hours...and the new official
intensity forecast accounts for this by showing faster weakening
than was indicated in the previous forecast. If Felicia stays a
little farther south...it might be able to maintain its intensity
for a longer period of time.

Forecast positions and Max winds

initial 05/0900z 13.4n 128.2w 90 kt
12hr VT 05/1800z 14.1n 129.5w 100 kt
24hr VT 06/0600z 15.1n 131.2w 105 kt
36hr VT 06/1800z 16.1n 132.8w 100 kt
48hr VT 07/0600z 17.1n 134.6w 90 kt
72hr VT 08/0600z 18.5n 139.0w 75 kt
96hr VT 09/0600z 19.0n 144.5w 65 kt
120hr VT 10/0600z 19.0n 150.0w 50 kt

$$
forecaster Berg
Hello Patrap

i think new NHC forecast will be in one hour.
Anyway Felicia looks impresive at the SAT pictures.
Quoting CycloneOz:
Update from XtremeHurricanes.com

The Extreme Hurricanes Team is considering travel to the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday for a Monday / Tuesday intercept of Hurricane Felicia.

Final decision still 72 hours away...


Oz....you know I am a huge fan of y'alls work....but in this case, I've got your number...this is just a convenient excuse to go spend a few days in Hawaii....I know it's tough duty for you poor souls, but I suppose somebody's gotta do it... ; )
it does seem as if the atlantic disturbance is slowly growing in size
What happened to our yellow circle...wait a second....what happened to the CONVECTION!!!???
Convection expanding a bit......this still deserves some watching

Yeah, Patrap...read all that earlier.

Not booking flight yet, no hurry. Can wait for the 36 hour update to see if the intensity does indeed fall off as forecasted.

50 knot winds at landfall or at 24 hours out from landfall will not be significant enough to justify travel, so it will be important in the coming 36 hours for you folks who are in the know to advise us.

Standing by...
I think dry air and wind shear is having an effect. Or as Oz put it, the AWDZ is in full effect. In case you missed, it AWDZ is the African Wave Destroyer Zone.
Also looking at Felicia, a clear eye is now visible on infrared images.

Quoting presslord:


Oz....you know I am a huge fan of y'alls work....but in this case, I've got your number...this is just a convenient excuse to go spend a few days in Hawaii....I know it's tough duty for you poor souls, but I suppose somebody's gotta do it... ; )


You know...it's been over 22 years since I've been to the Big Island. I was thinking about covering the landfall from the area of the active volcano.

A natural two-fer! :)
1446. P451
Quoting msphar:
Looks like Felicia dies between 140W and 150W. Big island will see 'nuthin' but a few gusts above ambient winds.


Hawaii doesn't get big storms coming in from the East. They come in from the south.

I don't ever recall seeing even the largest of EPAC hurricanes making it to Hawaii as anything more than a minor TS or a depression.

I do recall Hawaii's big storms forming to the south and heading north through the chain as intense systems.

morning guys what is going on with our AOI talk to me people what up no more yellow and the nhc has a low on surface map
Quoting P451:


Hawaii doesn't get big storms coming in from the East. They come in from the south.

I don't ever recall seeing even the largest of EPAC hurricanes making it to Hawaii as anything more than a minor TS or a depression.

I do recall Hawaii's big storms forming to the south and heading north through the chain as intense systems.



Hurricane Flossie was a tropical storm as it passed (with about 60 mph winds)
The eye is clearing out on nighttime visible too. ADT likely to jump up shortly
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
morning guys what is going on with our AOI talk to me people what up no more yellow and the nhc has a low on surface map


I realized they put a surface low on the map, but they took the circle away.
1452. cg2916
Enrique Forecast/Advisory out:
000
WTPZ22 KNHC 051439
TCMEP2
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
1500 UTC WED AUG 05 2009

TROPICAL STORM CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.1W AT 05/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 30 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 14 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1000 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 45 KT WITH GUSTS TO 55 KT.
34 KT....... 80NE 85SE 0SW 30NW.
12 FT SEAS.. 80NE 85SE 30SW 30NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 17.3N 122.1W AT 05/1500Z
AT 05/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 121.5W

FORECAST VALID 06/0000Z 18.4N 124.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 70NE 85SE 0SW 30NW.

FORECAST VALID 06/1200Z 19.3N 126.3W
MAX WIND 30 KT...GUSTS 40 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/0000Z 19.7N 128.8W
MAX WIND 25 KT...GUSTS 35 KT.

FORECAST VALID 07/1200Z 19.7N 131.4W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND 20 KT...GUSTS 25 KT.

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z...DISSIPATED

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 09/1200Z...DISSIPATED

OUTLOOK VALID 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 17.3N 122.1W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 05/2100Z

$$
FORECASTER SOWKO


1453. cg2916
Enrique Advisory...
000
WTPZ32 KNHC 051440
TCPEP2
BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072009
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ENRIQUE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 17.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 122.1 WEST OR ABOUT 880
MILES...1415 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

ENRIQUE IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH...26 KM/HR. THIS
TRACK WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE WEST IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 50 MPH...85 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. ENRIQUE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT
48 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 100 MILES...160 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1000 MB...29.53 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.3N 122.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 305 DEGREES AT 16 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1000 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER SOWKO
1454. cg2916
Enrique has all 8's on its Advisories and stuff.
1455. cg2916
I WAS RIGHT!
000
WTPZ33 KNHC 051443
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

..FELICIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...REACHES MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1370 MILES...2210 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.1N 128.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PEREIRA

closed low?
get over it you are wasting your time on this one 60mile winds maybe on mauna loa at 10000ft i lived on those islands for 4 yrs i remember one yr we had at least two cat 4s coming from that direction when the remments passed bye less winds than usual although we did go surf unusual spots near rabbit island and kailua i guess you all are just keeping yourself busy just identify your loops so us atlantic fans dont waste our time and our computer space downlding them
1458. cg2916
Quoting stormpetrol:

closed low?

No. It's not closed.

Hurricane FELICIA Public Advisory
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Home Public Adv Fcst/Adv Discussion Wind Probs Maps/Charts Archive
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000
WTPZ33 KNHC 051443
TCPEP3
BULLETIN
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
ISSUED BY THE HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
800 AM PDT WED AUG 05 2009

..FELICIA CONTINUES TO STRENGTHEN...REACHES MAJOR HURRICANE
STATUS...

AT 800 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 14.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 128.7 WEST OR ABOUT
1370 MILES...2210 KM...WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA
CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR...AND
THIS MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THAT MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE
INCREASED TO NEAR 115 MPH...185 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 35 MILES...55 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120
MILES...195 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 955 MB...28.20 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 AM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...14.1N 128.7W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 PM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER PEREIRA




Good Morning to all from Austin. Just set the record for all time hottest month in July. Blew the old record away by almost .5 degree. Just hope August, which is traditionally the hottest month is more bearable. On to the tropics, my entry yesterday suggested that the ITCZ wave around 30 deg. was going to be more productive. The satellite imagery suggested that it was developing good out flow at the upper levels. But, as good as it looked, my concern for the dry SAL to the N and NW was spot on. A review of the SAL at http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/wavetrak/sal.html. shows that at 18:00 UTC on 8/4 the dry air starts to entrain itself within the wave and within 12 hours it was a shell of itself. Pretty graphic. With dry air and plenty of wind shear stretching across the Atlantic basin, it will be difficult for any wave to develop. Maybe next week...
Good morning

Only on for a few minutes.

As I surmised yesterday, the upper level circulation outran the developing low and has now dissipated. There is a 1012 mb surface low which is now near 11N 34W but the 850 mb vorticity associated with the feature is somewhat displaced to the East by about 2 to 3 degrees of longitude.

This type of structure would not allow for any quick organization and with very dry air nearby any further move to the NW would likely curtail development.

For the moment it is worth keeping an eye on but that is about all for now.

1462. P451
Quoting AllStar17:


Hurricane Flossie was a tropical storm as it passed (with about 60 mph winds)


She passed pretty far south of Hawaii though didn't she? I'm thinking of direct hits on Hawaii from the east and I just can't think of anything more than weak TS's or Depressions that were once ferocious hurricanes mere days before.

The SSTs fall to the east of the Islands.

This is why Hawaii's big hits come from the south not from the East.

...alright, some research:

====
Storms that approach the Hawaiian Islands from due east have historically weakened east of Hawaii under the combined influence of unfavorable westerly wind conditions aloft, resulting in large wind shear and cooler sea-surface temperatures. However, natural variability in the circulation of the ocean and atmosphere has allowed potentially destructive depressions and tropical storms to reach Hawaii from the east since 1950.
====

It's a good read: Link
1463. SQUAWK
NEW BLOG
1464. cg2916
NEW BLOG
don't panic now people the yellow circle will be back at the 2pm outlook


This is heading right for Hawaii
Quoting AllStar17:
Also looking at Felicia, a clear eye is now visible on infrared images.



clearly the eye clearing up
Quoting wunderkidcayman:


Huh....they increased chances for development
1470. cg2916
New blog.
Quoting stormpetrol:

closed low?

No, there are not any winds out of the south on the eastern side of the circulation near the main convection. If the light circulation around 32W moves west quickly, it can consolidate and become a closed low.
209

WHXX01 KMIA 051316

CHGE77

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1316 UTC WED AUG 5 2009



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



EAST PACIFIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009) 20090805 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

090805 1200 090806 0000 090806 1200 090807 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 13.8N 128.3W 15.1N 130.1W 16.2N 131.7W 17.3N 133.3W

BAMD 13.8N 128.3W 14.9N 130.1W 15.9N 131.8W 16.7N 133.7W

BAMM 13.8N 128.3W 14.9N 130.0W 15.9N 131.6W 16.8N 133.3W

LBAR 13.8N 128.3W 15.0N 129.9W 16.4N 131.6W 17.7N 133.5W

SHIP 100KTS 114KTS 117KTS 112KTS

DSHP 100KTS 114KTS 117KTS 112KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

090807 1200 090808 1200 090809 1200 090810 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 18.2N 135.2W 19.9N 140.1W 21.1N 145.9W 21.6N 151.4W

BAMD 17.2N 135.6W 18.1N 140.1W 19.0N 144.6W 20.2N 148.1W

BAMM 17.5N 135.1W 18.8N 139.6W 20.0N 144.4W 21.1N 148.3W

LBAR 18.6N 135.3W 19.4N 139.3W 19.4N 144.3W 20.1N 148.7W

SHIP 100KTS 77KTS 61KTS 44KTS

DSHP 100KTS 77KTS 61KTS 44KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 13.8N LONCUR = 128.3W DIRCUR = 305DEG SPDCUR = 9KT

LATM12 = 12.6N LONM12 = 126.8W DIRM12 = 299DEG SPDM12 = 9KT

LATM24 = 12.0N LONM24 = 124.9W

WNDCUR = 100KT RMAXWD = 25NM WNDM12 = 70KT

CENPRS = 955MB OUTPRS = 1008MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = D

RD34NE = 120NM RD34SE = 120NM RD34SW = 90NM RD34NW = 90NM



$$

NNNN