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Crossing Hispaniola and Cuba: a history

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:20 AM GMT on August 25, 2012

Throughout hurricane history, numerous tropical storms and hurricanes have battered themselves against Hispaniola and Cuba. Some have been destroyed; others have survived and gone on to wreak additional havoc. Cuba's most formidable barrier to hurricanes is the one Isaac will be running into--the eastern portion of the island, where mountains up to 6,000 feet high rear up out of the sea. I present here a history of five storms that crossed portions of both Hispaniola and Cuba, similar to Isaac's track. These five storms strengthened by 5 - 20 mph in their first 24 hours after coming off the coast of Cuba, and one went on to become the deadliest disaster in American history--the Great Galveston Hurricane.

Tropical Storm Fay of 2008. This storm was so unpredictable, I nicknamed it "The Joker." Fay got disrupted by passage over Haiti and Eastern Cuba, then slowly intensified to a 50 mph tropical storm as it tracked just south of Cuba. After crossing Central Cuba, Fay intensified from 50 mph to 65 mph in 36 hours over the Florida Straits, before making landfall in southwest Florida. Fay actually strengthened another 5 mph to a 70 mph tropical storm while its center was over land near the western end of Lake Okeechobee.




Figure 1. Tropical Storm Fay approaching Florida. Satellite: Aqua at 6:50 PM GMT on August 18, 2008


Hurricane Ernesto of 2006. Ernesto was a hurricane for the briefest of time, just six hours, before it encountered the rugged mountains on the southwest Peninsula of Haiti and Eastern Cuba, which weakened it to a 40 mph tropical storm. After popping off the north coast of Cuba, Ernest had 24 hours over the warm waters of the Florida Straits before making landfall on the southern tip of Florida, but Ernesto was only able to strengthen by 5 mph to 45 mph.




Figure 2. Hurricane Ernesto (05L) over Hispaniola. Satellite: Terra at 3:50 PM GMT on August 27, 2006


Hurricane Georges of 1998. This nasty Cape Verde hurricane cut a swath of destruction across the Caribbean and in the U.S., killing 602 people, mostly in Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Passage over Hispaniola weakened Georges from a Category 3 storm to a Category 1, and Georges was able to maintain Category 1 status for over a day while traversing the eastern half of Cuba. After the center popped off the coast, Georges had 18 hours over water before it hit Key West, and the hurricane intensified from 85 mph winds to 105 mph winds during that time.




Figure 3. Inside the eye of Hurricane Georges, as seen from a NOAA WP-3D research aircraft on 19 September 1998.


Hurricane Two of 1928. This storm became a Category 1 hurricane with 90 mph winds before reaching Haiti, the got disrupted by close passage to Haiti's southwest peninsula, and Eastern Cuba. After the storm crossed Cuba, it strengthened from 60 mph to 70 mph in the Florida Straits, before close passage by the landmass of South Florida weakened it back to a 60 mph tropical storm again. It eventually made landfall in the panhandle of Florida as a 45 mph tropical storm.




Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900. This deadliest hurricane in American history killed an estimated 8,000 - 12,000 people in Galveston, Texas when it hit as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds on September 8, 1900. On its way to Galveston, the storm crossed both Hispaniola and the greater part of the length of Cuba as a tropical storm with 40 - 50 mph winds. When the storm popped out into the Florida Straits, it intensified from a minimum strength 40 mph tropical storm to a 145 mph Category 4 monster in two-and-a-half days. There's a very good chance the hurricane passed over a warm core Gulf eddy on its way to Galveston, allowing explosive deepening to occur. That situation does not exist in the Gulf at present for Isaac.




Figure 4. Aftermath of the Great Galveston Hurricane of 1900 on Galveston Island.



I'll have a new post Saturday between 11 am - 1 pm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting nola70119:


The GFDL model is right at us now....last night it was in the Panhandle.


Have a link because I'm looking at the interpolated version still up on the Issac page?
2502. GetReal
2503. snotly
Stands for legendary Ralph Igonovich who was the third grand cousin twice removed to the veterinarian of great Isaac Cline and also by mere chance was also the same nephew of the satellite installer who hired a guy that worked weekends cleaning the bathrooms at the weather channel and once bumped into John Hope. Since Ralph always had a quick temper anyone in those days who would fly off the handle would often get labeled a R.I. later on a few people also noticed the R.I. also stood for rapid intensification, which describes Ralph to a T.


Quoting CocoaLove:


What is RI? I keep seeing that acronym, but not sure of meaning. I'm interested because I live in Northwest Miami-Dade and starting to get jittery about Isaac.

Thanks.
2504. yoboi
Quoting SykKid:


isaac never will be a major hurricane guaranteed


i see ya been calling cleo....she told me things that never happened..she told be steph from twc would show up at my door in a bathing suit heard a knock opened it up and it was Al...have not been the same since then..
Quoting presslord:
My wife has absolutely no idea of the seriousness of my weather addiction....she thinks I'm sittin' over here lookin' at internet porn....


What, you can't multi-task?
2506. SykKid
Quoting barotropic:



BINGO!!!! Intensity is one of the hardest things in tropical meteorology to predict. No computer or individual has been able to quite figure it out. You seem rather confident. So much so that you must have info that no one else has.....LOL just kidding of course.


he's struggled all his life i see no indication that things will change in the future THAT much to the point where he can become a monster.
Quoting seflagamma:
At what point does the NHC go to 2 hour updates?
Once we are under warnings????

I know in the past they did this when the storm was near..


Within range of US radars
Quoting HarryMc:


Good summary page. I was looking at that earlier; the HWRF looked to show the most intensity by Tuesday... something like 110 knots. How A summary of the top six models:
From Dr. Masters

ECMWF: The European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting (ECMWF) model is the premier global model in the world for medium range weather forecasting in the mid-latitudes. In 2006, the ECMWF made improvements that starting producing very accurate hurricanes forecasts.

GFS: The Global Forecast System model run by the NWS. Excellent graphics are available on the web from the National Center for Environmental Prediction. Wunderground.com also has GFS plots. I like the Tropical Atlantic imagery. If you select "Shear" from the "level" menu, then click on "Add a Map", you'll get plots of the wind shear that I talk so much about.

GFDL: The NWS/Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory model. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes. Wunderground.com makes these graphics available on Wundermap. More detailed GFDL graphics are available at NOAA/NCEP. See the "GHM" model under the heading, Hurricane Graphics.

UKMET: The United Kingdom Met Office model. Data from this model is restricted from being redistributed according to international agreement, and graphics from the UKMET are difficult to find on the web. Only paying subscribers are supposed to have access to the data.

HWRF: The NWS/Hurricane Weather Research Model. HWRF is a non-hydrostatic a coupled ocean-atmosphere model, will utilize highly advanced physics of the atmosphere, ocean and waves in one prediction system, providing unparalleled understanding of the science of tropical cyclone evolution. Its output gives meteorologists an analysis of the hurricane in three-dimensions from real-time airborne Doppler radar. It will make use of a wide variety of observations from satellites, data buoys, and hurricane hunter aircraft. No other hurricane model accesses this wide of a range of meteorological information. The GFDL and HWRF models are the only models that provide specific intensity forecasts of hurricanes. Detailed HWRF graphics are available at NOAA/NCEP. See the "HWRF" model under the heading, Hurricane Graphics.

NOGAPS: The U.S. Navy's Navy Operational Global Prediction Center System. Graphics are available at the Navy web site. This model has been performing poorly in recent years compared to the other global models, so it has been removed from the consensus models that the National hurricane Center uses as of 2011.

good is HWRF relatively speaking?
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Closer look at the advisories:



Rainfall forecast by the HPC:




Perfect it think it shows where I think Isaac will go over South Dade and the Northern Keys.
Quoting StormHype:


Storm b*ner!


... ALL over the keyboard...

I'm talking about coffee.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Isaac has fared very well after passing over the mountains of Hispaniola, and it appears that the center isn't even going to cross over Cuba. South Florida better prepare for a Category 1 hurricane.



Strong cat 1 at that. Those waters are very warm.
On a serious note.....people, as usual, are coming outta the woodwork to help Portlight execute our response to all this....we will be fine tuning everything today...and will probably begin to execute tomorrow...there is likely to be much need....you can follow our efforts at our WU Featured Blog Link...and Jeff Masters will also be posting regular updates....
2513. Msdrown
Gmoring, I see the tracks like in the past switch from west to east at night and back to the west in the morning. Any reason for that??

Where can I find the running diagram or video showing the projected isobar fields for a few days with expected track????
2514. guygee
Quoting Gorty:

How come his southern side looks better than his northern side?
Mountains of Hispaniola squeezing out the moisture.
Quoting WetBankGuy:


Which means think west, closer to the ECMWF?


That dropsonde data was for last night.
Good idea:

Put some of your water bottles in your freezer. That way when the power goes out, you have cold water for a few extra hours.
Quoting SykKid:


he's struggled all his life i see no indication that things will change in the future THAT much to the point where he can become a monster.


It seems that dry air has been a big problem so far this season.
2518. vlaming
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
who thinks where there could be mandatory evacuations if this thing does become a dangerous hurricane???

Reminds me of Gustav's evacuations


Key West is not even asking the tourists to leave ... at this point they may not have a choice anymore.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:




Hey Doug, Say G'day to Brian for me. Give him an ice cold beer for me. One day I'll give you both one myself.

I'm seriously tired, combination of pain medication and depression. I'll be fine in the morning. If you are in or close to TS or HR warning areas, please put your plan into action, you have time, work as team with your family to get things done. If you need a list of what you need to do, here is one.

Everyone else, please pray for the people of Haiti and anyone in the future path of Isaac.

Goodnight. Happy Cyclone watching.
Cheers AussieStorm :-)
Quoting fatlady99:


... ALL over the keyboard...

I'm talking about coffee.


Believe it or not, my wife came up with that one. Maybe "storm woody" or "storm wood" would be less harsh.
2521. ALlisa
Somewhat long time lurker here! In Mobile, AL and waiting anxiously to be out of the cone. This has been a stressful week! Hubby thinks I am nuts and he is more worried about his NFL Fantasy draft tomorrow than this storm. Hopefully I am the nutty one and come later today or tomorrow we will be out of the cone!
Quoting Msdrown:
Gmoring, I see the tracks like in the past switch from west to east at night and back to the west in the morning. Any reason for that??

Where can I find the running diagram or video showing the projected isobar fields for a few days with expected track????


The GFS is on the NCEP page, Huffmans page has several of the models including EMCWF, and the FSU site is good, but slower to update with new runs. All of those can be found under models here.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Looks to be following the HWRF track early on and might stay north of the Cuban coast:



Western convection is wrapping up with the main one to the SE of the LLC it should once the LLC moves north past the mountains thunderstorms should fire to it north and wrap up.
2524. SykKid
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

He still has a good chance to become one, especially since the center is not going to pass over Cuba.


the gap is closing fast! i think he remain a TS maybe a cat 1 at best in the gulf. I dont see him becoming a major hurricane at all.
Quoting vlaming:


Key West is not even asking the tourists to leave ... at this point they may not have a choice anymore.


That's because their economy can't take it. Same for Tampa. Times are tough for FL tourism right now.
2526. sar2401
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
who thinks where there could be mandatory evacuations if this thing does become a dangerous hurricane???

Reminds me of Gustav's evacuations


Isaac will need at least the forecast of getting much stronger from the NHC before they start thinking of mandatory evacuations. As long as it looks this ragged and the NHC doesn't start setting off alarm bells, it's not going to happen.
2527. Dakster
Quoting snotly:
Stands for legendary Ralph Igonovich who was the third grand cousin twice removed to the veterinarian of great Isaac Cline and also by mere chance was also the same nephew of the satellite installer who hired a guy that worked weekends cleaning the bathrooms at the weather channel and once bumped into John Hope. Since Ralph always had a quick temper anyone in those days who would fly off the handle would often get labeled a R.I. later on a few people also noticed the R.I. also stood for rapid intensification, which describes Ralph to a T.




I finally understand your nickname...
2528. yoboi
Quoting presslord:
On a serious not.....people, as usual, are coming outta the woodwork to help Portlight execute our response to all this....we will be fine tuning everything today...and will probably begin to execute tomorrow...there is likely to be much need....you can follow our efforts at our WU Featured Blog Link...and Jeff Masters will also be posting regular updates....


do they let people go help them???
Quoting HCW:


Do you have a Kestrel and a autographed picture of the late Dr John Hope ? If not you are not a real weather weenie





Good point, I gotta get one!
Quoting presslord:
On a serious not.....people, as usual, are coming outta the woodwork to help Portlight execute our response to all this....we will be fine tuning everything today...and will probably begin to execute tomorrow...there is likely to be much need....you can follow our efforts at our WU Featured Blog Link...and Jeff Masters will also be posting regular updates....

In a few days I'll make another donation.
Goodnight all.
2531. trey33
Quoting StormHype:


That's because their economy can't take it. Same for Tampa. Times are tough for FL tourism right now.


key west is hard to evac
2532. Dakster
Quoting WXGulfBreeze:


What, you can't multi-task?


ROFLMAO.
Quoting SykKid:


isaac never will be a major hurricane guaranteed
All the ingredients will be there if he decides to move parallel and 50 miles north of Cuba's coast.
Quoting yoboi:


do they let people go help them???


yes...please e-mail
2535. SykKid
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Western convection is wrapping up with the main one to the SE of the LLC it should once the LLC moves north past the mountains thunderstorms should fire to it north and wrap up.


since when has isaac done what he "should" do? lol
Quoting tornadolarkin:


Strong cat 1 at that. Those waters are very warm.


More like a Cat. 2 less dry air than the caribbean and near 90F SST.
2537. miajrz
Miami-Dade officials holding a press conference at 9:30-esque. (FWIW, I'm streaming from local10.com since I can't get wfor.com to work. Can't get links to work either--more coffee!)
2538. 7544
morning everyone coffee time just a ? the blob over andros is now is one of issac offspring lol and showed up out of nowhere ? tia
2539. guygee
Quoting trey33:

way easier to evac tampa than key west
Camping grounds on I-4.
Quoting yoboi:


do they let people go help them???


Volunteers are always needed and appreciated. There is no MD 20-20 allowed though! That stuff is just gross...Doing some volunteer work my actually rid you of your sins for even thinking about purchasing it! ;)
Quoting presslord:
My wife has absolutely no idea of the seriousness of my weather addiction....she thinks I'm sittin' over here lookin' at internet porn....


Finally someone that thinks like me!
Quoting barotropic:


It seems that dry air has been a big problem so far this season.


well I don't think that there is ANY dry air left in the GOM!..LOL
2543. SykKid
Quoting Hurricanes305:


More like a Cat. 2 less dry air than the caribbean and near 90F SST.


no way isaac gets any stronger then that.

cat 2 is pushing it imo
Quoting ALlisa:
Somewhat long time lurker here! In Mobile, AL and waiting anxiously to be out of the cone. This has been a stressful week! Hubby thinks I am nuts and he is more worried about his NFL Fantasy draft tomorrow than this storm. Hopefully I am the nutty one and come later today or tomorrow we will be out of the cone!


Welcome to WU from a fellow Mobilian! and you are not nuts!..lol
2545. GetReal


I would believe that Isaac would soon resume a more WNW track given the steering.?.?
Does anyone has a geografic map of Cuba?
2547. Dakster
Quoting vlaming:


Key West is not even asking the tourists to leave ... at this point they may not have a choice anymore.


I am in South Dade --. From what I have seen in my own backyard,the wind gusts and hard rain would make driving on the one road in and out of Key West quite interesting to watch at this point. Also, don't know about anywhere else, but the streets around me are starting to flood.
2548. SykKid
Quoting AllyBama:


well I don't think that there is ANY dry air left in the GOM!..LOL


then expect shear to pick up :P
Quoting SykKid:


no way isaac gets any stronger then that.

cat 2 is pushing it imo

Just curious, why not?
2550. Mikla
You can go here and select which model then which parameters and run it.

Or you can go here and pick a model.

Or you can go here and mouseover "Global Models" at the top of the page and select a model.

Or you can go to grib.us and download UGRIB to plot the GFS.

Hope this helps...

Quoting Msdrown:
Gmoring, I see the tracks like in the past switch from west to east at night and back to the west in the morning. Any reason for that??

Where can I find the running diagram or video showing the projected isobar fields for a few days with expected track????
2551. sar2401
Quoting ALlisa:
Somewhat long time lurker here! In Mobile, AL and waiting anxiously to be out of the cone. This has been a stressful week! Hubby thinks I am nuts and he is more worried about his NFL Fantasy draft tomorrow than this storm. Hopefully I am the nutty one and come later today or tomorrow we will be out of the cone!


Also an Alabamian. Unless there is a major shift in track, whcih is doubtful, Mobile will not be out of the cone before landfall. The best we can hope for is that Issac makes landfall to the east of Mobile, which will put us on the weaker side of the storm. However, the windfield is so large that even the weaker side will still bring at least TS force winds to lower AL and the FL panhandles regardless of exact landfall. Tell hubby to get off his butt and start securing any loose items arond the house. :)
Well I'm taking the boat out for a day of fishing around Orange Beach...May as well enjoy this pretty weather while I can.

What are we looking at Tuesday night...strong Cat 1 Hurricane somewhere between Biloxi and Apalachicola?

What are anticipated surge heights with a storm this size on N. Gulf Coast?

3-4 feet above normal???

What can we expect in Mobile Bay??? Any more than 4 feet higher than normal??
2553. Grothar
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Isaac has fared very well after passing over the mountains of Hispaniola, and it appears that the center isn't even going to cross over Cuba. South Florida better prepare for a Category 1/2 hurricane.



Hey, TA. Hasn't somebody been writing that for a few days now? That is wasn't going over the DR, that is would only hit the Southern Tip of Haiti, that it would go through the Windward Passage, that it would only hit the tip of Eastern Cuba and might intensify? Do you have any idea who that was? :):)
Looks like TS Isaac will encounter Cuba at it's most eastern tip. How much of Cuba Isaac's center rides remains to be seen. At this time it doesn't appear to be more than half of the country.

It'll be intersting to see if he can finally put everything together and become a hurricane.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just curious, why not?


Masters says the system is too big.....its easy to blow up into a Katrina, but once big harder to ramp up. Think of a spinning top.
2556. GetReal
2557. yoboi
Quoting StormJunkie:


Volunteers are always needed and appreciated. There is no MD 20-20 allowed though! That stuff is just gross...Doing some volunteer work my actually rid you of your sins for even thinking about purchasing it! ;)



it was all i had i drank up all the old crow with my debby forcast...
GOES East rapid scan visible loop, appears headed due west into Cuba.
Quoting SykKid:


no way isaac gets any stronger then that.

cat 2 is pushing it imo
The storm can still intensify while crossing extreme southern Florida. We have seen this before.
Quoting sar2401:


Also an Alabamaian. Unless there is a major shift in track, whcih is doubtful, Mobile will not be out of the cone before landfall. The best we can hope for is that Issac makes landfall to the east of Mobile, which will put us on the weaker side of the storm. However, the windfield is so large that even the weaker side will still bring at least TS force winds to lower AL and the FL panhandles regardless of exact landfall. Tell hubby to get off his butt and start securing any loose items arond the house. :)


+1

A post of reason
Quoting SykKid:


no way isaac gets any stronger then that.

cat 2 is pushing it imo


Look at the environment over the Bahamas there is plenty of moisture northern circulation will feel the warmer SST it as plenty of moist air to wrap around and create a really nice outflow channel on the western side. Shear will remain low and again up to 90F SST over the untapped water over the Bahamas.
While one doesn't look at wobbles to determine a motion, it is interesting to see that Isaac has been wobbling more to the north this AM. Hispaniola is often known to cause systems like Isaac to 'jerk', usually westward but a northward jerk doesn't surprise me either. These little jerks and tugs mean a lot in the short term, as it looks like Isaac might just skirt Cuba, maybe only make a brief landfall over Cuba. Looks to be heading west again now, like I said - wobbles don't determine a motion.
Link
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, TA. Hasn't somebody been writing that for a few days now? That is wasn't going over the DR, that is would only hit the Southern Tip of Haiti, that it would go through the Windward Passage, that it would only hit the tip of Eastern Cuba and might intensify? Do you have any idea who that was? :):)


I know, I know........Grothar!
Quoting Dakster:


I am in South Dade --. From what I have seen in my own backyard,the wind gusts and hard rain would make driving on the one road in and out of Key West quite interesting to watch at this point. Also, don't know about anywhere else, but the streets around me are starting to flood.
plus us 1 north of jewfish creek floods very easily
Quoting SykKid:


the gap is closing fast! i think he remain a TS maybe a cat 1 at best in the gulf. I dont see him becoming a major hurricane at all.


-___-

Anticyclone
And
ROCKETFUEL
Equals
Intensification
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just curious, why not?

I believe he's trolling...he wouldn't believe either that it won't become a cat 3 in the gulf too...he thinks there is no way it would happen! Looks like it may indeed happen.
2567. ALlisa
Quoting sar2401:


Also an Alabamaian. Unless there is a major shift in track, whcih is doubtful, Mobile will not be out of the cone before landfall. The best we can hope for is that Issac makes landfall to the east of Mobile, which will put us on the weaker side of the storm. However, the windfield is so large that even the weaker side will still bring at least TS force winds to lower AL and the FL panhandles regardless of exact landfall. Tell hubby to get off his butt and start securing any loose items arond the house. :)

Ha! Yeah well he will have to see it to beleive it! I am sure slowly but surely if this keeps going the way it is going he will have no choice..if not I will throw all our crap in the pool and hope for the best! Thanks!
Quoting presslord:
On a serious note.....people, as usual, are coming outta the woodwork to help Portlight execute our response to all this....we will be fine tuning everything today...and will probably begin to execute tomorrow...there is likely to be much need....you can follow our efforts at our WU Featured Blog Link...and Jeff Masters will also be posting regular updates....

So glad this was started. Thanks for the reminder :)
2569. Drakoen
Issac survived the trek across Hispaniola fairly well although satellite imagery reveals the storm is very asymmetric. The poleward motion continues but Issac should reach the base of the subtropical ridge and be forced in a more WNW direction. The UKMET and GFS continue to be the best models to track this storm, and I don't think that will change much over the next couple of days.

The models show an environment highly conducive for intensification with a large-scale upper level anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico which should aid in ventilating the storm. Issac will be moving through some of the highest TCHP values across the Florida straits in excess of 100 kJ/cm^2 and the storm may be able to intensify rapidly especially if it takes a more eastern track.
2570. HCW
Quoting StormJunkie:


Volunteers are always needed and appreciated. There is no MD 20-20 allowed though! That stuff is just gross...Doing some volunteer work my actually rid you of your sins for even thinking about purchasing it! ;)


Count me in Storm Junkie and you have my contact info . I had a much better feeling in my body after helping out the Tornado victims last year in Alabama . I didn't do it for selfish reasons like some storm chasers did cause it wasn't about driving traffic to my website since I was only there to help people get one step closer to getting back to living a normal life
2571. GetReal
The center of Isaac appears to right near the extreme eastern tip of Cuba, near the coastline. Link
2572. guygee
Quoting Hurricanes305:

Look at the environment over the Bahamas there is plenty of moisture northern circulation will feel the warmer SST it as plenty of moist air to wrap around and create a really nice outflow channel on the western side. Shear will remain low and again up to 90F SST over the untapped water over the Bahamas.
Isaac came through the wringer in better shape than most storms, unless he drags the coast of Cuba the forecast is grim.
I can't believe it. Isaac is about to thread the needle between Haiti and Cuba. that is nearly impossible!
2574. sar2401
Quoting SykKid:


no way isaac gets any stronger then that.

cat 2 is pushing it imo


I tend to agree, as does the NHC for now, but until (or if) Isaac develops into a hurricane with a tight structure and is really vertically stacked, it's hard to predict final intensity. It could never get to be more than a TS in the Gulf or it undergo RI and get to cat 3. It's still to early to make any kind of accurate judgement.
Quoting GetReal:


I would believe that Isaac would soon resume a more WNW track given the steering.?.?


I agree and I also concur with the NHC forecast. This will definitely affect the area between Pcola and Panama beach significantly. For those in Mobile, Mississippi, and Louisiana although you still need to keep an eye on it, you can feel a bit better now about dodging this bullet. I see it very unlikely that it will make a direct landfall in those areas.
I am seeing initials everywhere in response tp Presslords comment. I dont know what they mean. Where can I find a "dictionary" for those types of letters? Example

LOL = Laugh out loud

Feel kindaz left behind because I dont know what people are saying.

The WEATHER letters I know.
Quoting presslord:
My wife has absolutely no idea of the seriousness of my weather addiction....she thinks I'm sittin' over here lookin' at internet porn....
So laughing at myself this morning -- Thanks Press!
Quoting ALlisa:

Ha! Yeah well he will have to see it to beleive it! I am sure slowly but surely if this keeps going the way it is going he will have no choice..if not I will throw all our crap in the pool and hope for the best! Thanks!

That is funny because that is what I did during Katrina and after two weeks with no power my water was so green I couldn't see where anything was in my pool. Was a mess! lol
Quoting Drakoen:
Issac survived the trek across Hispaniola fairly well although satellite imagery reveals the storm is very asymmetric. The poleward motion continues but Issac should reach the base of the subtropical ridge and be forced in a more WNW direction. The UKMET and GFS continue to be the best models to track this storm, and I don't think that will change much over the next couple of days.

The models show an environment highly conducive for intensification with a large-scale upper level anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico which should aid in ventilating the storm. Issac will be moving through some of the highest TCHP values across the Florida straits in excess of 100 kJ/cm^2 and the storm may be able to intensify rapidly especially if it takes a more eastern track.

Agreed!
Quoting yoboi:



it was all i had i drank up all the old crow with my debby forcast...



Hadn't thought about Mad Dog in years...I remember one time....on second thought...nevermind....
I believe Isaac is being drawn towards the coast right now due to thunderstorms developing over Eastern Cuba and lowering the pressures to the west.
Cat 1 seems like an undersell after crossing the GOM imo, especially seeing that Isaac's interaction with Cuba looks to be at a minimum now. Not trying to ruffle feathers, just stating a strong possibility here. Also don't forget stronger, deeper system = more poleward movement. But this is all yet tbd
major East-to-west flow over the GOM right now... now I understand why the models are seeing Isaac go back WNW now... hmmm... wouldnt be surprised for another model flip flop this afternoon
So Saint Augustine is no longer in danger fromn this one correct??
2586. kwisp
Quoting StormHype:


That's because their economy can't take it. Same for Tampa. Times are tough for FL tourism right now.


Officials are now asking tourists to leave the keys:

Link
Great graphics. Thanks.
Quoting WPBHurricane05:
Good idea:

Put some of your water bottles in your freezer. That way when the power goes out, you have cold water for a few extra hours.


we did that for all the storms in 2004/2005 and it works well. once frozen you can transfer them to your coolers and they help keep contents cold.

Quoting Drakoen:
Issac survived the trek across Hispaniola fairly well although satellite imagery reveals the storm is very asymmetric. The poleward motion continues but Issac should reach the base of the subtropical ridge and be forced in a more WNW direction. The UKMET and GFS continue to be the best models to track this storm, and I don't think that will change much over the next couple of days.

The models show an environment highly conducive for intensification with a large-scale upper level anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico which should aid in ventilating the storm. Issac will be moving through some of the highest TCHP values across the Florida straits in excess of 100 kJ/cm^2 and the storm may be able to intensify rapidly especially if it takes a more eastern track.
hey Drak how strong do you have isaac peaking in the gulf?
Quoting WetBankGuy:


Have a link because I'm looking at the interpolated version still up on the Issac page?


GFDL is currently an outlier, I would stick with the two most reliable models - ECMWF & GFS - It looks like this is going to be stronger than expected and a more poleward motion should be expected. I have been saying all along that this is likely a Panama City hit.
Quoting AllyBama:


Welcome to WU from a fellow Mobilian! and you are not nuts!..lol


Waving back to the both of ya, those computer models keep teasing us here. Batting down the hatches at the shipyard already.
Quoting winter123:
I can't believe it. Isaac is about to thread the needle between Haiti and Cuba. that is nearly impossible!


Based on the steering the NNW movement should continue until it reaches the Southern Bahamas then a true NW might ensue especially if the storm strengthen then to Southern Florida north of the guidance.
2593. Drakoen
Quoting floridaboy14:
hey Drak how strong do you have isaac peaking in the gulf?


Agree with the NHC
2594. wpb
rapid scan shows a current tack into the cuban high mountains just north of west. this could be a solid punch.a prolong track over this will set the storm back two days
2596. wpb
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
GOES East rapid scan visible loop, appears headed due west into Cuba.
yes
Quoting SykKid:


isaac never will be a major hurricane guaranteed
Like you would KNOW!
Quoting sar2401:


Also an Alabamian. Unless there is a major shift in track, whcih is doubtful, Mobile will not be out of the cone before landfall. The best we can hope for is that Issac makes landfall to the east of Mobile, which will put us on the weaker side of the storm. However, the windfield is so large that even the weaker side will still bring at least TS force winds to lower AL and the FL panhandles regardless of exact landfall. Tell hubby to get off his butt and start securing any loose items arond the house. :)



To anyone in coastal Alabama region:

I am new to Alabama, came from Coastal Texas. What is typical storm surge in Mobile Bay?? I know highly dependent, but for example during Ike in 2008 we had it come around almost entire backside of Galveston Island (aka S. Houston). And that was for a strong Cat 1 / weak Cat 2...but it had lots of time to pile up the water. Shallow shelf.

What is storm surge like for Mobile Bay??

Quoting Drakoen:


Agree with the NHC


That's heresy!!!! you're NEVER supposed to agree with those losers....
Issac passed over the south-west peninsula of Haiti with the coc largely intact,having crossed where the land mass is only some 40 miles wide, or less. Clearly visible in this Navy Nexsat loop ( takes a while to load). I don't think this transition has affected the storm as much as would have normally been considered.

Link
Quoting wpb:
rapid scan shows a current tack into the cuban high mountains just north of west. this could be a solid punch.a prolong track over this will set the storm back two days

It's moving in the direction the NHC said it would. Nothing changes.

What the heck happened?

This thing barely moved over night.

CoC is hitting the eastern-most tip of Cuba in that mountainous peninsula on the end, as per Guantanamo radar.
Quoting presslord:



Hadn't thought about Mad Dog in years...I remember one time....on second thought...nevermind....


At band camp?
Quoting StormJunkie:


At band camp?



well....yea...actually...
Quoting Drakoen:


Agree with the NHC
90mph? i think thats a little low. i checked the environment on the GFS and there should be some good ventelation for isaac once he moves back over water and the water temps north of cuba are DEEP which is important and hot. im still thinking a major. people in the gulf shouldnt downplay isaac
2606. GetReal
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


I agree and I also concur with the NHC forecast. This will definitely affect the area between Pcola and Panama beach significantly. For those in Mobile, Mississippi, and Louisiana although you still need to keep an eye on it, you can feel a bit better now about dodging this bullet. I see it very unlikely that it will make a direct landfall in those areas.


I am not ready yet to declare that MS, and AL, or even LA at this hour have dodged any bullets. But thanks for the thought. Once Isaac is in the florida Straits then I believe some areas hve possible dodged a bullet.
GITMO radar not much help



2608. yoboi
i still can't belive they don't evacuate the keys unless at cat 3, the person who made that rule is just plain stupid....
Quoting nola70119:


Masters says the system is too big.....its easy to blow up into a Katrina, but once big harder to ramp up. Think of a spinning top.




its not too big IKE wes big and it be came at cat 4 igor was big and be came a strong cat 4 BOLAVEN is big and look how strong he got its a strong cat 4 storm in the W PAC


so big storms can be come strong hurricanes this has small hurricanes can
2610. 7544
hes going to go thru the passage and hit the water ???
I will be leaving soon for helping someone. Is St Augustine in the clear now?
I see lots of chatter about Isaac will always be a TS or maybe a Cat 1 and I hope you are right!..however, I am preparing for something bigger - just incase. I do NOT want to be unprepared in the event Isaac blows up in the GOM or trends back my way. IMO if you live along the coast you have to be completely prepared no matter what level of storm.
Crossing over the extreme eastern tip of Cuba and moving northwest.

Looks as though he might be running into that ridge right now...maybe a wobble, but almost looks like he's heading WNW again...probably just a wobble...
Microwave imagery shows the core of Isaac fared well in its journey across Haiti:

Quoting wpb:
rapid scan shows a current tack into the cuban high mountains just north of west. this could be a solid punch.a prolong track over this will set the storm back two days


Oh yeah pay attention to satellite its moving almost north.
2617. Msdrown
Quoting StormJunkie:


The GFS is on the NCEP page, Huffmans page has several of the models including EMCWF, and the FSU site is good, but slower to update with new runs. All of those can be found under models here.



Thanks, that was very helpful.
2618. wpb
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Crossing over the extreme eastern tip of Cuba and moving northwest.

nice post
Quoting Hurricanes305:


Oh yeah pay attention to satellite its moving almost north.

rapid scan is satellite and i can also see the coc moving into cuba.
2620. Dakster
Quoting presslord:



well....yea...actually...


Now I gotta ask -- What instrument did you play?
Quoting SykKid:


no way isaac gets any stronger then that.

cat 2 is pushing it imo


Hypothetically it could. If the mountains/land end up disrupting Isaac and reduce his size, it could allow for a more rapid intensification when it reaches open water again. It's easier to spin up a smaller mass than a larger one.

Unlikely, but not entirely outside the realm of possibility.
6Z GFS did not do a GOOD
For those wondering about Haiti, the Associated Press is reporting that at least two people died in the town of Souvenance from Tropical Storm Issac

Link
looks like he is getting close to being shoved wnw. he should cross the eastern cuban tip and then start moving wnw toward the keys. waters north of cuba are DEEP and HOT
Mobile Alabama here. Does this thing look like it will really start moving west towards us? I was going to grab some supplies this morning but it doesn't look like we will be the cone by this afternoon. Is tthere a reason it would now come our way?

Thanks
Quoting ALlisa:
Somewhat long time lurker here! In Mobile, AL and waiting anxiously to be out of the cone. This has been a stressful week! Hubby thinks I am nuts and he is more worried about his NFL Fantasy draft tomorrow than this storm. Hopefully I am the nutty one and come later today or tomorrow we will be out of the cone!
not trying to doom and gloom you, but, the only way we get out of the cone here is if Isaac opens into an open wave. 2. A severe error in model consistency. What has me worried a little is we've been in the cone for about 2 days now. Models are either dead on top of us, or just a little east, or just a little west. The really reliable ones don't seem to get to far away from us. When / if this thing gets into the Gulf they will probably lock on too it better. Are people going crazy all ready. They are in Semmes buying a lot of gas and raiding the Wally- world as of yesterday.
Quoting GetReal:


I am not ready yet to declare that MS, and AL, or even LA at this hour have dodged any bullets. But thanks for the thought. Once Isaac is in the florida Straits then I believe some areas hve possible dodged a bullet.


Forecasting weather 4 days out is tough....if I recall, just two days ago models had this running the length of Cuba. or a large part of it.
I'm thinking Isaac will skirt the west coast of Florida more than what they forecast!!!!! Big Bend landfall. Just a opinion
Storms weeble and wobble.

Levi mentioned that Haiti might send the storm more to the N and Cuba might try to bring it back in W.
2630. sar2401
Quoting CoastalAlabama:
Well I'm taking the boat out for a day of fishing around Orange Beach...May as well enjoy this pretty weather while I can.

What are we looking at Tuesday night...strong Cat 1 Hurricane somewhere between Biloxi and Apalachicola?

What are anticipated surge heights with a storm this size on N. Gulf Coast?

3-4 feet above normal???

What can we expect in Mobile Bay??? Any more than 4 feet higher than normal??


A strong cat 1 looks to be the most likely now, and the area from Biloxi to Apalachicola also appears to be a good cone. Surge heights may be more like 5 feet, but a lot depends on actual final intensity. Looks the the SLOSH maps on the Mobile County website, also the Alabama EMA website, for likely storm surge calibrated to storm intensity. A direct south hit on Mobile really changes how big the storm surge will be.
Quoting RTSplayer:

What the heck happened?

This thing barely moved over night.

CoC is hitting the eastern-most tip of Cuba in that mountainous peninsula on the end, as per Guantanamo radar.
If it dosent Speed up Do you think It will take that North turn sooner than forecasted after the keys and skirt west coast all the way up?
Quoting Fishinnfever05:
Mobile Alabama here. Does this thing look like it will really start moving west towards us? I was going to grab some supplies this morning but it doesn't look like we will be the cone by this afternoon. Is tthere a reason it would now come our way?

Thanks

There's no reason to suggest you'll be out of the cone from here on out. I'd get prepared.
Levi need to get up!!!
Quoting Autistic2:
I will be leaving soon for helping someone. Is St Augustine in the clear now?


On the current track St. Augustine still stands to get a fair amount of rain,, winds around 30 mph. I'm in Jacksonville and I'm still watching it carefully. The water table up here is a good bit above average, a good dousing fro Isaac will cause flooding.
The next 12-18 hours are going to be very interesting as he encounters the very warm waters of the bahamas.
Wow.

The GFDL had the storm hitting Plaquemines as a 958mb storm.

The NAM Mobile Bay.

GFS now has 3 ensemble members going up the Mouth of the Mississippi, whereas yesterday it was only zero, one, or two, depending on the run...Looks like about 5 or 6 hitting between Mobile Bay and Pensacola, yeah that tight of a grouping there.
Blobcasters must be going CRAZY right now! I see four on this image! The low level swirl over Virginia is crazy - is it partially remnants of HELENE? - it moved off the Mexico coast and was picked up by this front, if anyone missed it.. Note that Isaac is not on this image.
in the mean time 97L











2639. GetReal
Quoting cat6band:
Looks as though he might be running into that ridge right now...maybe a wobble, but almost looks like he's heading WNW again...probably just a wobble...


A move back towards the WNW is expected....
2640. wpb
no recon {af}bc of cuban airspac. dont know about noaa p-3. data from sat and cuba radar
nrti - Agreed it looks to be headed due W directly in to Eastern Cuban mountains...And that LLC does not look terrible for just making the Haitian mountain pass, but I'm not sure it can handle more mountains which it seems headed for now.
This Windsat pass shows the low level structure is still healthy, with a lot of warm rain around the center of the storm. Warm rain, as in it has not cooled to ice:

Quoting Drakoen:
Issac survived the trek across Hispaniola fairly well although satellite imagery reveals the storm is very asymmetric. The poleward motion continues but Issac should reach the base of the subtropical ridge and be forced in a more WNW direction. The UKMET and GFS continue to be the best models to track this storm, and I don't think that will change much over the next couple of days.

The models show an environment highly conducive for intensification with a large-scale upper level anticyclone over the Gulf of Mexico which should aid in ventilating the storm. Issac will be moving through some of the highest TCHP values across the Florida straits in excess of 100 kJ/cm^2 and the storm may be able to intensify rapidly especially if it takes a more eastern track.


What's also notable is that similar CAPE extends well off the SE coast of FL and is currently powering the sfc convergence/vort dynamics over S FL...I expect we'll see some impressive banding develop across S FL and well into the tropical Atlantic as Isaac gets closer and integrates that flux into its circulation. Rainfall along the SE FL coast will be extremely heavy.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Crossing over the extreme eastern tip of Cuba and moving northwest.


Looks to just scrape the most eastern most tip of cuba...should be over water very fast!
2645. JasonRE
Ugh....ok, like most of you I have been following this storm since it began. I am in Louisiana, and am sitting here reading every comment, in every blog seeing this:

Isaac is weakening, no Isaac is strengthening, Isaac will move West, no Isaac will move WNW, NO Isaac will move East....I know nobody really KNOWS where this storm will because of the uncertainty in it's track just the past few days, but should SE Louisiana keep an eye on this thing, or is it too foregone to the North to make such a turn once hitting the GOM? Last night before bed, I saw the models had shifted Westward and now this morning they're back Eastward. *Head is spinning* lol
2646. wpb
Quoting StormJunkie:
nrti - Agreed it looks to be headed due W directly in to Eastern Cuban mountains...And that LLC does not look terrible for just making the Haitian mountain pass, but I'm not sure it can handle more mountains which it seems headed for now.
could be a xout
97L at 384HR
2648. A4Guy
looks like he's beginning to start the move back towards the NW/WNW...just not sure he will do it fast enough, and might stay just off the coast of Cuba. Storm tracks are curved...rareley do we see sharp turns.
Quoting CoastalAlabama:



To anyone in coastal Alabama region:

I am new to Alabama, came from Coastal Texas. What is typical storm surge in Mobile Bay?? I know highly dependent, but for example during Ike in 2008 we had it come around almost entire backside of Galveston Island (aka S. Houston). And that was for a strong Cat 1 / weak Cat 2...but it had lots of time to pile up the water. Shallow shelf.

What is storm surge like for Mobile Bay??



A storm very similar in path, Hurrican Georges hit Mississippi with 105 mph winds in the late 90s and the storm surge in Mobile Bay was 8 feet and downtown Mobile was flooded. There was also a large amount of rain with that storm which didn't help matters.
2650. Dakster
That Miami-Dade EOC conference is going to occur more at 10ish than 9:30ish...
2651. wpb
who's writing the 11am
2652. tea3781
I would pay attention to one model in particular... the GFS...its been fairly consistant over the last few days. The other models have been jumping around with each model run. I would say that anything west of Pensacola should be pretty safe. My prediction is a landfall between Pensacola and Appalachicola.

Its funny to watch people on here. "Its moving west, its moving north, ect"

The models are going to shift with each model run. One this is certain. Its going to come fairly close to South Florida and the Keys in the next 2 days...after that the models diverge.
2653. sar2401
Quoting Fishinnfever05:
Mobile Alabama here. Does this thing look like it will really start moving west towards us? I was going to grab some supplies this morning but it doesn't look like we will be the cone by this afternoon. Is tthere a reason it would now come our way?

Thanks


There are lots of reason it could come our way. Get whatever you need immediately because a full blown milk and bread panic is about to break out. The storm track is going to wobble back and forth until Isaac is established in the Gulf. Don't pay it too much attention. Assume Mobile is going to be affected and get what you need NOW.
It's trying to wrap some convection around the SW side.



Overall its pretty disorganized though, I think the earlier recon mission supports lowering the intensity to 50mph at 11AM.
Quoting SouthDadeFish:
This Windsat pass shows the low level structure is still healthy, with a lot of warm rain around the center of the storm. Warm rain, as in it has not cooled to ice:



Wind sat is 3 hours old, but yes the structure has held on fairly well. But it is also about to hit a bunch of 2k' mountains.
The storm center is in the windward passage moving just north of the Easternmost tip of Cuba.
Quoting Tazmanian:
in the mean time 97L












Since the GFS has been right on with the storms this season, I would definitely pay attention to 97L later down the road
According to vis. satellite, definitelly moving W to WNW.
I double checked that, and the GFDL calls for 90kts/958mb landfall on Plaquemines, LA.
Quoting wpb:
who's writing the 11am

Beven.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Levi need to get up!!!

Ughh give him time he lives in Alaska! About 5 am over there!
The Key West Mayor does not evacuate until it's cat 3.

The Keys might have problems.
You westcasters need to stop adding alcohol to your coffee. Isaac is clearly moving northwest and is NOT moving west into the mountains!
2664. wpb
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Beven.
zzzzzzzzzzzzzzz
man this is not good the center looks too be moveing WNW at this time and it looks like it may not even make land fall this is going too give Isaac's a lot more time overe water wish means we could be looking at a lot stronger hurricane
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's trying to wrap some convection around the SW side.



Overall its pretty disorganized though, I think the earlier recon mission supports lowering the intensity to 50mph at 11AM.
no point in making it weaker to the public. surprisingly, its core hasnt been torn apart so once he gets north of cuba expect some stregthining
I thought Cuba allowed HH missions since Castros brother took over?
Quoting RTSplayer:
Wow.

The GFDL had the storm hitting Plaquemines as a 958mb storm.

The NAM Mobile Bay.

GFS now has 3 ensemble members going up the Mouth of the Mississippi, whereas yesterday it was only zero, one, or two, depending on the run...Looks like about 5 or 6 hitting between Mobile Bay and Pensacola, yeah that tight of a grouping there.



I just need it to be over mobile so I don't look like a fool to my entire English class:)
Quoting Articuno:
The Key West Mayor does not evacuate until it's cat 3.

The Keys might have problems.


There is voluntary evacuation for the tourists and non-residents now.
This has been acting very tropical

2671. Dakster
Quoting Articuno:
The Key West Mayor does not evacuate until it's cat 3.

The Keys might have problems.


Tourists are leaving.. Apparently they got the word early enough as a live shot in Florida City showed a ton of traffic going northbound on useless 1 (US1).
its not all the time you see a storm pass in to the windward passage
So lol
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Ughh give him time he lives in Alaska! About 5 am over there!
All eyes in Isaac - BUT - what is that mess firing up between Florida and Cuba? Looks like southern Florida is getting some rough weather already!!
2675. GetReal
Quoting StormJunkie:
nrti - Agreed it looks to be headed due W directly in to Eastern Cuban mountains...And that LLC does not look terrible for just making the Haitian mountain pass, but I'm not sure it can handle more mountains which it seems headed for now.



good morning SJ...Looks like Isaac has another brush with mountains ahead. How long he will have to deal with them will depend upon how westerly a track he takes....
Quoting Wunderwood:
You westcasters need to stop adding alcohol to your coffee. Isaac is clearly moving northwest and is NOT moving west into the mountains!


It's moving wnw according to where the center officially is and where it has since moved
2677. sar2401
Quoting JasonRE:
Ugh....ok, like most of you I have been following this storm since it began. I am in Louisiana, and am sitting here reading every comment, in every blog seeing this:

Isaac is weakening, no Isaac is strengthening, Isaac will move West, no Isaac will move WNW, NO Isaac will move East....I know nobody really KNOWS where this storm will because of the uncertainty in it's track just the past few days, but should SE Louisiana keep an eye on this thing, or is it too foregone to the North to make such a turn once hitting the GOM? Last night before bed, I saw the models had shifted Westward and now this morning they're back Eastward. *Head is spinning* lol


It's hurricane season. You should be preparing as if you're going to be hit. It's impossible to tell exactly where Isaac may be going or how strong he will be. LA is probably in less danger than areas further east, but the danger is not zero. Do what you need to be safe for the rest of the season regardless.
2678. DVG
At 5AM it was 1 degree east of the waypoint. It still is now.
2679. Dakster
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Ughh give him time he lives in Alaska! About 5 am over there!


But the Sun has been up for the past several hours.....
2680. wpb
Quoting Autistic2:
I thought Cuba allowed HH missions since Castros brother took over?
no recons schedule since early this am noaa jet is flying around the storm now.others on the ground.guess the forecast was over cuba for 24 hours so they stand down
2681. Reb74
Quoting fredric1979:
you rang.The the center move to just under 20 north or is it trying to reform under the blob off clast of Hati.


Freddie was the first hurricane I ever knew...I was only 4 but I remember how bad it was for us and how my mother cried when we came home. Fortunately, our house was okay, even though a huge tree fell across the roof (did not go through it). We had no power for two weeks. What a time that was.
Quoting Hurricanes305:
The storm center is in the windward passage moving just north of the Easternmost tip of Cuba.


Disagree

IMO. It's just SE of the eastern most tip of Cuba
Quoting Articuno:
The Key West Mayor does not evacuate until it's cat 3.

The Keys might have problems.
Lol, why would they need to evacuate for a category 1?
Erratic motion can be expected until Isaac gets into the Atl. Also I wouldn't completely rule out a center reform either. These mountains can cause some oddities in tropical systems.
2685. yoboi
Quoting JasonRE:
Ugh....ok, like most of you I have been following this storm since it began. I am in Louisiana, and am sitting here reading every comment, in every blog seeing this:

Isaac is weakening, no Isaac is strengthening, Isaac will move West, no Isaac will move WNW, NO Isaac will move East....I know nobody really KNOWS where this storm will because of the uncertainty in it's track just the past few days, but should SE Louisiana keep an eye on this thing, or is it too foregone to the North to make such a turn once hitting the GOM? Last night before bed, I saw the models had shifted Westward and now this morning they're back Eastward. *Head is spinning* lol


se la not out of it one shift later and ya could be in the bayou with the crab traps....i live in la aand seen storms shift all the time....just be ready if the call is ever made to evacuate...
Quoting Autistic2:
I thought Cuba allowed HH missions since Castros brother took over?


They do, there is no Recon scheduled for this time.
2687. wpb
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Disagree

IMO. It's just SE of the eastern most tip of Cuba
sat shows your on
Cantore on his way to Tampa..going to report from there later
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
So lol

Still give him time lol...he maybe doing other things right now or making his tropical tibit then coming on you never know!
Quoting Elena85Vet:


Disagree

IMO. It's just SE of the eastern most tip of Cuba


It should just move north of the eastern tip.
2692. Dakster
I hope the Keys residents have been paying homage to the Hurricane Grotto...
2693. Msdrown
Quoting JasonRE:
Ugh....ok, like most of you I have been following this storm since it began. I am in Louisiana, and am sitting here reading every comment, in every blog seeing this:

Isaac is weakening, no Isaac is strengthening, Isaac will move West, no Isaac will move WNW, NO Isaac will move East....I know nobody really KNOWS where this storm will because of the uncertainty in it's track just the past few days, but should SE Louisiana keep an eye on this thing, or is it too foregone to the North to make such a turn once hitting the GOM? Last night before bed, I saw the models had shifted Westward and now this morning they're back Eastward. *Head is spinning* lol


I'm with you on that. I asked earlier with no reply why the last few days the tracks go west during the later part of day into the night and back east during the day.
2694. Grothar
Quoting STXHurricanes2012:

Ughh give him time he lives in Alaska! About 5 am over there!


He has the nerve to sleep when all of this is going on?
2695. sar2401
Quoting weatherh98:



I just need it to be over mobile so I don't look like a fool to my entire English class:)


The folks that live in Mobile would probably prefer you look like a fool to your English class rather than suffer a direct hit. Think before you write. This is real lives and real property you're wishcasting about, not about your ego.
Quoting Hurricanes305:


It should just move north of the eastern tip.
I don't think it's going to avoid landfall with Cuba at all.
Triple eyewalls.

Quoting SFLWeatherman:
So lol


Plus Levi was still up as of 4AM EST looking at the Tropical Tidbits Facebook feed.
Quoting wpb:
who's writing the 11am


Dr. Masters said that he would be back today..
Traffic on US 1 is very light. Hardly anyone at Winn Dixie on Big Pine Key.
I think Isaac's center is just about to hit SE Cuba. The current motion seems to be west at 280 degrees or so, but the long term motion is more WNW to NW.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, why would they need to evacuate for a category 1?


They'll close the highway to the Keys at Cat 1 winds
Quoting SFLWeatherman:


The cone has it hugging the cone after going NW. But this system gets stronger quicker it Think it could stay right of the center track.
000
NOUS42 KNHC 241545
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT FRI 24 AUGUST 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 25/1100Z TO 26/1100Z AUGUST 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-097


I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM ISAAC
FLIGHT ONE --TEAL 72 FLIGHT TWO --NOAA 49--
A. 25/1800Z,26/0000Z A. 26/0000Z
B. AFXXX 1609A ISAAC B. NOAA9 1709A ISAAC
C. 25/1530Z C. 25/1730Z
D. 20.0N 76.3W D. NA
E. 25/1730Z TO 26/0000Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT THREE --TEAL 74-- FLIGHT FOUR --NOAA 49--
A. 26/0600Z,1200Z A. 26/1200Z
B. AFXXX 1809A ISAAC B. NOAA9 1909A ISAAC
C. 26/0230Z C. 26/0530Z
D. 21.6N 78.6W D. NA
E. 26/0530Z TO 26/1200Z E. NA
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT

FLIGHT FIVE --TEAL 75--
A. 26/1200Z
B. AFXXX 2009A ISAAC
C. 26/0900Z
D. NA
E. NA
F. SFC TO 30,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC FLOW/ BUOY DROP MISSION

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK:3-HRLY FIXES 27/0000Z. .
G-IV MISSIONS EVERY 12 HRS. WP-3 BEGIN FLYING
26/2000Z




is this new?
2705. keisa90
Quoting Charmeck:
All eyes in Isaac - BUT - what is that mess firing up between Florida and Cuba? Looks like southern Florida is getting some rough weather already!!


Was wondering the same thing. Look at Key West radar long range in motion. There is a slight spin just east of Havana moving west.
Quoting CoastalAlabama:



To anyone in coastal Alabama region:

I am new to Alabama, came from Coastal Texas. What is typical storm surge in Mobile Bay?? I know highly dependent, but for example during Ike in 2008 we had it come around almost entire backside of Galveston Island (aka S. Houston). And that was for a strong Cat 1 / weak Cat 2...but it had lots of time to pile up the water. Shallow shelf.

What is storm surge like for Mobile Bay??

The water is totally dependent on wind direction of course. Systems passing to our South water will usually get into the Bayou Labatre area the canals and marsh areas north of Dauphin island. In Downtown Mobile will flood usually at Water St. Water usually will be pushed further up the bay. Not sure about a direct hit. I would imagine the water may get to about Broad just depends on strength and how constant the wind is pushing onshore. Hope that helped a little.
2707. Grothar
Quoting Dakster:


But the Sun has been up for the past several hours.....


LOL
2708. pottery
BBC website has some video from Haiti this morning.
It's Dread there. In many ways. Does not take very strong winds to blow tarps away......
Quoting cruzinstephie:


Plus Levi was still up as of 4AM EST looking at the Tropical Tidbits Facebook feed.

Well there you go lol! It was a late night for him then...well needed rest then!
Quoting Charmeck:
All eyes in Isaac - BUT - what is that mess firing up between Florida and Cuba? Looks like southern Florida is getting some rough weather already!!


we are, those are break away bands from Isaac, we were told that last night and this morning we are in them....


some one mentioned a page or two ago we are not even going to get that beautiful weather we normally get
right before the storm.. these early band are ruining our nice Pre-storm weather.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Triple eyewalls.

gorgeous storm. cant ask for any better. gfs and its ensembles are picking up on kirl developing. anyone from bermuda to texas will have to watch it but he will be a big problem down the road. as of now, I gotta deal with isaac :(
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Lol, why would they need to evacuate for a category 1?

No I was just saying they don't evacuate until cat 3. never said they had to evacuate from a cat 1. -.-

I think the center is already passing north of the Eastern tip of Cuba:

Quoting keisa90:


Was wondering the same thing. Look at Key West radar long range in motion. There is a slight spin just east of Havana moving west.


I've been watching that all morning. I'm no meterologist but that sure does look like it's trying to spin and it sure does look nasty.
They have never closed any roads here in the Lower Keys, they just recommend staying off of them.
2717. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:
its not all the time you see a storm pass in to the windward passage


gro called that days ago....i think gro has the crystal ball...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Triple eyewalls.

Did something similar happened ever before?
2719. Dakster
Quoting Elena85Vet:


They'll close the highway to the Keys at Cat 1 winds


At 40 MPH sustained winds vehicles have issues... I wouldn't want to flip off a bridge and end up in the water.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I think Isaac's center is just about to hit SE Cuba. The current motion seems to be west at 280 degrees or so, but the long term motion is more WNW to NW.
right now he is moving northwest but once he gets north of cuba i already can see the ridge nosing in and should push him wnw towards the keys
Reed just pointed out where I think the center is. The western part of the circulation seems to be scraping Cuba, but the...center of the center looks to be farther northwest.

Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
I don't think it's going to avoid landfall with Cuba at all.


Whether or north its barely going over any landmass it should be over Eastern Cuba in less than 30 minutes thats not enough of a difference the Cuban MTs is already affecting the storm since 5am over the Circulation emerges over the Bahamas gradual to rapid intensification.
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
Did something similar happened ever before?

I have never seen a storm with a triple eyewall structure before. Very impressive.

Circulation center is pretty broad but it appears via sat that at least one low level vortex has just made its way inland over eastern cuba. If this pans out to be "the center", Isaac is now moving WNW or N of due west. Have to see what continuity shows.
Quoting originalLT:
According to vis. satellite, definitelly moving W to WNW.


And his circulation is becoming stretched as well. Look at the RGB. Void of storms and being pulled apart. HE could rapidly weaken to a depression if he stays over Cuba. All of his southern inflow is being robbed by Haiti. Now his circulation is plowing into some high mountains in eastern Cuba.

i wounder if Isaac is takeing notes from Bolaven
Quoting Hurricanes305:


It should just move north of the eastern tip.


At the very minimum it will cross that tip.
I hope the Euro situation doesn't pan out or the GFDL.As Isaac will be crossing over very vulnerable coast as a major hurricane causing serious amounts of storm surge.
2729. pottery
Quoting yoboi:


gro called that days ago....i think gro has the crystal ball...

Nah, no crystal ball.
Just Wisdom that comes with Age.
So in his case, countless Wisdom......
This thing appears poised to miss the entire landmass of Cuba.

Uh oh...
Time in Alaska is 6:09
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reed just pointed out where I think the center is. The western part of the circulation seems to be scraping Cuba, but the...center of the center looks to be farther northwest.



Pretty sure the location center is just SSW of there about to hit Cuba. The slight difficulty in determining center shows that the mountains have done a number on that circulation that was approaching Cat 1 yesterday as it approached Haiti.
2733. Dakster
Miami-Dade Press conference is underway now...

2734. DVG
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reed just pointed out where I think the center is. The western part of the circulation seems to be scraping Cuba, but the...center of the center looks to be farther northwest.>

You nailed it.
the center of Isaac is out in the open waters
Quoting ILwthrfan:


And his circulation is becoming stretched as well. Look at the RGB. Void of storms and being pulled apart. HE could rapidly weaken to a depression if he stays over Cuba. All of his southern inflow is being robbed by Haiti. Now his circulation is plowing into some high mountains in eastern Cuba.

Also could reform a LLC wherever the MLC is.
2737. pottery
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reed just pointed out where I think the center is. The western part of the circulation seems to be scraping Cuba, but the...center of the center looks to be farther northwest.


Looks too far North, to me.
Quoting Dakster:
Miami-Dade Press conference is underway now...

Yep.
One must not focus on westward or northward wobbles too much, the general motion is still NW. Storms never follow a straight line and Haiti often causes storms to jerk westward. This AM, it was going almost due north with a wobble.
Quoting Tazmanian:
the center of Isaac is out in the open waters


no its not is over the tip of cuba moving even further inland...this storm cant catch a break..beginning to look ragid again
2741. wxmod
Arctic sea ice comparison: previous record year 2007 with this year.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reed just pointed out where I think the center is. The western part of the circulation seems to be scraping Cuba, but the...center of the center looks to be farther northwest.



Thats the MCL. Its stretched. The lower circulation his heading almost due west look at radar...


Quoting Charmeck:


I've been watching that all morning. I'm no meterologist but that sure does look like it's trying to spin and it sure does look nasty.



I think the significance of the moisture south of key west is that it will keep Isaacs environment moist making dry a less of a factor. Will be interesting to see over the course of today what happens
2744. 7544
anyone have a feeling the cone might shift east latter on today maybe by 11pm hmmmm
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


no its not is over the tip of cuba moving even further inland...this storm cant catch a break..beginning to look ragid again




no its not it out in the open water heading NW to N
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Also could reform a LLC wherever the MLC is.


That would take a lot of time and would limit intensification. Which is a good thing.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Thats the MCL. Its stretched. The lower circulation his heading almost due west look at radar...





that rader is crap
is it moving west or wnw now?
I don't know guys... this has bust written all over it... storms always seem to struggle in this area, the center doesn't have to be over land for them to feel the impacts... even if he makes it to the Gulf he could become so disorganized over the next couple that he's unable to strengthen much.



Still, I could be wrong, he could pull it right back together... I just feel we're overanalyzing the situation, lol.
Damage in Haiti.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


That would take a lot of time and would limit intensification. Which is a good thing.
Well it's already happened once with this storm, so I guess we'll see.
Quoting GTcooliebai:
I think the center is already passing north of the Eastern tip of Cuba:



Looks like the moisture over S. Florida will get caught with the circulation and wrap around it. Looking slightly better on vis. satellite. And its just east of the tip of Cuba making it way into the SE Bahamas.
2753. pottery
Quoting wxmod:
Arctic sea ice comparison: previous record year 2007 with this year.


OUCH !
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Thats the MCL. Its stretched. The lower circulation his heading almost due west look at radar...




Well if that's the case, this thing is toast. I still think it's over open water only going to graze the extreme southeast tip of Cuba.

Quoting Tazmanian:



that rader is crap


okay, but you can still see the circulation center which is the point I'm making.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:
They have never closed any roads here in the Lower Keys, they just recommend staying off of them.


Watched an interview with the mayor yesterday, he said they didn't want anyone on them at Cat 1 winds.

I guess I interpreted that as closing them. If so, my bad.

Thx for the correction
Quoting Tazmanian:




no its not it out in the open water heading NW to N


No its not.....look at center crossing E cuba heading WNW SEEING IS BELIEVING!!!


Link
Isaac moving NNW north of forecast points
2759. Dakster
Let the chaos begin in Miami-Dade --

Mayor's Press conference says:

1. Three days of food/water
2. put shutters up
3. fill up vehicles
4. Do not trim trees now
5. MIA remains open - flight cancellations may happen soon
6. Metro-Rail/BUS OPEN
7. Secure Boats
8. EOC at Level 2 - Partial Activation
9. 3-1-1 is open
10. www.miamidade.gov/oem - for further information

11. Stay tuned for further advisories and changes.

School closing haven't been decided.
The center of Isaac is just southeast of the most eastern tip of Cuba, it has not gotten north of Cuba yet.
GULF OF MEXICO...
UPPER LEVEL NORTHERLY FLOW COVERS MOST OF THE BASIN...BEHIND THE
BASE OF AN UPPER TROUGH THAT MOVES ACROSS THE FAR ERN REGION OF
THE GULF. THIS FEATURE IS PROVIDING SOME WEAK TO MODERATE
DIFFLUENCE ALOFT OVER THE N-CENTRAL BASIN...GENERATING AN AREA
OF WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS N OF 26N
BETWEEN 87W-95W. DRY AIR AND STRONG SUBSIDENCE IS SINKING ACROSS
THE ERN BASIN PROVIDING FAIR CONDITIONS E OF 87W. HOWEVER...LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE AND STRONG CONVECTION IS BEING BROUGHT FROM THE
EAST ACROSS THE STRAITS OF FLORIDA DUE TO THE LARGE CYCLONIC
WIND FIELD OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC. SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS
ENTERED THE AREA THIS MORNING NOTED ON DOPPLER RADAR AS A FEW
SQUALL LINES S OF 25N E OF 83W. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER THE NW GULF. SIMILAR CONVECTION WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ACROSS THE SE GULF AS TROPICAL STORM ISAAC MOVES
CLOSER. WINDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO INCREASE OVER THE SE GULF
THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. ALL INTERESTS IN THE EASTERN GULF SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF ISAAC.

Description of the "Mess" over s fla
Radar shows a general NW-WNW motion.

Some of you guys put way too much stock in frame by frame satellite motion. Per satellite it was moving due north this AM.
2763. pottery
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Damage in Haiti.

... and it seems that the worst of the rainfall is still to come, for them.
Quoting 7544:
anyone have a feeling the cone might shift east latter on today maybe by 11pm hmmmm


Aren't the models shifting west?
Quoting Tazmanian:




no its not it out in the open water heading NW to N
Quoting Tazmanian:




no its not it out in the open water heading NW to N


it WAS heading NNW/NW now its WNW almost west...you need an updated satelitte
Quoting barotropic:


No its not.....look at center crossing E cuba heading WNW SEEING IS BELIEVING!!!


Link

Actually, that loop shows it well. Crossing the extreme eastern tip and headed northwest.

Makes no change in forecast track. That position just means it's farther north than the NHC anticipated.
2767. SykKid
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
I don't know guys... this has bust written all over it... storms always seem to struggle in this area, the center doesn't have to be over land for them to feel the impacts... even if he makes it to the Gulf he could become so disorganized over the next couple that he's unable to strengthen much.



Still, I could be wrong, he could pull it right back together... I just feel we're overanalyzing the situation, lol.


good god he looks pitiful
Looking at 2713 visible in motion is that a spin below Cuba right over Kmankid. Maybe the old wave that was in front of Issac trying to develop? Maybe that's what caused the mess in the straits.
Quoting ILwthrfan:


Thats the MCL. Its stretched. The lower circulation his heading almost due west look at radar...


The circulation is not decoupled.

Quoting ILwthrfan:


And his circulation is becoming stretched as well. Look at the RGB. Void of storms and being pulled apart. HE could rapidly weaken to a depression if he stays over Cuba. All of his southern inflow is being robbed by Haiti. Now his circulation is plowing into some high mountains in eastern Cuba.



Do you really think that if the NHC expected Isaac to weaken to a TD they would be making forecasts for him to be a hurricane?? He looks ragged right now because of dry air...IMO. But he will not degenerate.
Quoting TomballTXPride:
This thing appears poised to miss the entire landmass of Cuba.

Uh oh...


I see same thing, looks like center is going to miss Cuba entirely... hummmmmm
Quoting barotropic:


No its not.....look at center crossing E cuba heading WNW SEEING IS BELIEVING!!!


Link




you guys need too look at the Visible it tells more on whats going on at the center
Maybe it's just my untrained eyes but Isaac looks like he's moving north of the tropical forecast points and will barely interact with the eastern tip of Cuba...
1. It's inflow is blocked from the south.
2. Its cener is stretched to the northeast and becoming more disorganized.
3. Its void of a central core.
4. Its lower level circulation is moving right into a substantial mountain range

One thing you can bet on is that any intensification WILL be TURTLE SLOW at best. Book it.
Quoting pottery:

... and it seems that the worst of the rainfall is still to come, for them.

Yep, most of the rain is on the backside.

2776. GetReal
Quoting CoastalAlabama:



To anyone in coastal Alabama region:

I am new to Alabama, came from Coastal Texas. What is typical storm surge in Mobile Bay?? I know highly dependent, but for example during Ike in 2008 we had it come around almost entire backside of Galveston Island (aka S. Houston). And that was for a strong Cat 1 / weak Cat 2...but it had lots of time to pile up the water. Shallow shelf.

What is storm surge like for Mobile Bay??



You also want to stay out of the two traffic tunnels during a hurricane.... I understand that they both go underwater!!! (sarcasm)
2777. wpb
Quoting Dakster:
Let the chaos begin in Miami-Dade --

Mayor's Press conference says:

1. Three days of food/water
2. put shutters up
3. fill up vehicles
4. Do not trim trees now
5. MIA remains open - flight cancellations may happen soon
6. Metro-Rail/BUS OPEN
7. Secure Boats
8. EOC at Level 2 - Partial Activation
9. 3-1-1 is open
10. www.miamidade.gov/oem - for further information

11. Stay tuned for further advisories and changes.

School closing haven't been decided.
easten cuba will make then look dumber than they already r.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I have never seen a storm with a triple eyewall structure before. Very impressive.

Jeanne had a triple wind maximum back in 2004 around the time it was doing its loop in the Atlantic.
while loop clearly shows LLC crossing eastern tip going wnw, i think the mid level circulation appears to be moving NW still. So any stacking is being undone. Not unusuall in this scenario. See if it reforms to north.

Link
Quoting wxmod:
Arctic sea ice comparison: previous record year 2007 with this year.



Yeah, less total area and extent, and 10% to 20% less quality for the ice that does remain.

BTW, it hasn't reached climatological minimum yet, still got 15 days plus or minus a few for that to happen.
Getting tired of people freaking out about directions and the location where the center is EVERY satellite images.
Quoting seflagamma:


I see same thing, looks like center is going to miss Cuba entirely... hummmmmm


At least you mentioned already you were prepared. Good for you. :-)

If this is the case, then possibly expect a bit stronger storm by the time it moves over the Glades or gets near the Keys.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
It's trying to wrap some convection around the SW side.



Overall its pretty disorganized though, I think the earlier recon mission supports lowering the intensity to 50mph at 11AM.
pressure dropped from it last recording though right??
I doubt Tri-Rail, Metrorail, Metromover, Metrobus, BCT, and PalmTran will operate tomorrow.
Quoting Gorty:


How come his southern side looks better than his northern side?

He dosent have a northern side LOL
2786. DVG
I'm with Taz. Play the RGB loop. The centre starts at 72.8 18.5 and ends at 73.2 20.2
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Aren't the models shifting west?


No,more east.
Quoting barotropic:


No its not.....look at center crossing E cuba heading WNW SEEING IS BELIEVING!!!


Link

The NHC at 11 will settle to see who is right.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reed just pointed out where I think the center is. The western part of the circulation seems to be scraping Cuba, but the...center of the center looks to be farther northwest.



Reed thought Cuba was entirely flat.

Just sayin'
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The circulation is not decoupled.



How long ago was that?
Quoting Tazmanian:




you guys need too look at the Visible it tells more on whats going on at the center


obviously, it clearly shows it over the eastern tip
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Aren't the models shifting west?


GFDL moved way west to La, and the Euro a tad west to Mobile/Pensacola from late last night...but the GFS shows an abrupt pull to the east at the end of the track, moving into Apalachiacoala. But its 96 hours out...
2793. wpb
Quoting ILwthrfan:
1. It's inflow is blocked from the south.
2. Its cener is stretched to the northeast and becoming more disorganized.
3. Its void of a central core.
4. Its lower level circulation is moving right into a substantial mountain range

One thing you can bet on is that any intensification WILL be TURTLE SLOW at best. Book it.
great post very true.
Quoting Fishaholic25fl:
pressure dropped from it last recording though right??

This morning's recon reported 998mb, that's what they used at 8AM, and that was up substantially from earlier... They'll probably keep 998mb at 11 with no evidence to support otherwise, and I think they'll use 50mph as the intensity.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
The circulation is not decoupled.



Actually, I would argue that that says the circulation is a little decoupled. The LLC is to the SW of that band right on the coast of Cuba. That is about an hour old and is an excellent representation of what is going on with the storm right now. Couple that with visible loops and it is evident that Isaac is struggling right now. But that was to be expected.
Isaac brings to mind this Jimmy Buffett song:
Tryin' To Reason With Hurricane Season
I can't help but laugh at the idea that people think this is falling completely apart. Its center is over the extreme eastern tip of Cuba and moving NW, which means it will already emerge off the coast very shortly. It has a well-defined center and well-defined core as advertised by microwave imagery from a few hours ago.
Quoting ftlaudweathermaster:


No,more east.


No, they were East at 2am, but west this morning....
Quoting barotropic:


No its not.....look at center crossing E cuba heading WNW SEEING IS BELIEVING!!!


Link


over open water moving nw.
Quoting wpb:
no recon {af}bc of cuban airspac. dont know about noaa p-3. data from sat and cuba radar


Not true...they just haven't taken off yet.
The anomaly has gotten to the biggest it's been all year, even though we're approaching the phase where the seasonal changes should be slowing down melting.



and



and



and

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't help but laugh at the idea that people think this is falling completely apart. Its center is over the extreme eastern tip of Cuba and moving NW, which means it will already emerge off the coast very shortly. It has a well-defined center and well-defined core as advertised by microwave imagery from a few hours ago.



yep



the center is not moveing inaland it may have all ready move back in too open water
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
2804. flcanes
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't help but laugh at the idea that people think this is falling completely apart. Its center is over the extreme eastern tip of Cuba and moving NW, which means it will already emerge off the coast very shortly. It has a well-defined center and well-defined core as advertised by microwave imagery from a few hours ago.

this is going to be very bad
Squally here in the upper keys, the son of Isaac.

Lot of people driving out, Not many people at the stores, either they don't know a storm is comming or have their stuff already. Price of fuel jumped 8 cents over night
Lol.Why does TWA13 vanish when I get on the blog?.May you all in the path be safe.
2807. flcanes
Quoting Tazmanian:



yep



the center is not moveing inaland it may have all ready move back in too open water

it'll probably be back over water soon
Quoting TampaFLUSA:

The NHC at 11 will settle to see who is right.


Thats for sure. Likely multiple vortex's especially in this scenario. No question one just went in over east cuba, but as I posted seems that the dominant circulation may be still going NW.
Quoting tennisgirl08:


Do you really think that if the NHC expected Isaac to weaken to a TD they would be making forecasts for him to be a hurricane?? He looks ragged right now because of dry air...IMO. But he will not degenerate.


No, but it is why the NHC is being EXTREMELY conservative with a CAT 1 cane instead of a CAT 4. Look at the history analogs of the storms that passed through here. 2 out of the 5 became hurricanes with the others being less. These islands are a tall task for a tropical system to overcome.
2810. Dakster
Did I miss something?

SFWMD just said now Hurricane Isaac?
People, USE ALL TOOLS before making comments. Do not just assume Isaac based on visible image or any other satellite image. Microwave suggest that the center is still organized. It is NOT dying.
Quoting clwstmchasr:


Aren't the models shifting west?
The 06z GFDL shifted substancially west and GFS shifted a tad bit west and the 06 HWRF shifted a tad bit east.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Actually, I would argue that that says the circulation is a little decoupled. The LLC is to the SW of that band right on the coast of Cuba. That is about an hour old and is an excellent representation of what is going on with the storm right now. Couple that with visible loops and it is evident that Isaac is struggling right now. But that was to be expected.


He was never expected to become a Hurricane until he gets north of Cuba. I think his center is going to pass over the Eastern tip of Cuba which has some mountains. He will struggle over next day or so.

BUT...

His true colors will show near the FL straits and especially the GOMEX.
2814. QMiami
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Yep.


pretty annoying press conference. news station keep cuttting out because the mayor keeps flipping back and forth between english/spanish. Never saw a conference like that usually they do one english and then again in spanish.
2815. pottery
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't help but laugh at the idea that people think this is falling completely apart. Its center is over the extreme eastern tip of Cuba and moving NW, which means it will already emerge off the coast very shortly. It has a well-defined center and well-defined core as advertised by microwave imagery from a few hours ago.

... and by the time it is fully over the warm water again, it will have rotated all that heavy convection to the east and south of it, into it's central part.
Quoting wxmod:
Arctic sea ice comparison: previous record year 2007 with this year.



And that changes a lot

Changing Jet Streams May Alter Paths of Storms and Hurricanes

Can someone please post the latest Euro... Tia
2818. ALlisa
Quoting fredric1979:
not trying to doom and gloom you, but, the only way we get out of the cone here is if Isaac opens into an open wave. 2. A severe error in model consistency. What has me worried a little is we've been in the cone for about 2 days now. Models are either dead on top of us, or just a little east, or just a little west. The really reliable ones don't seem to get to far away from us. When / if this thing gets into the Gulf they will probably lock on too it better. Are people going crazy all ready. They are in Semmes buying a lot of gas and raiding the Wally- world as of yesterday.

I would say I love your user name but not :-) ...very young during frederic but still remember so much about that hurricane (before, during and after). So much has changed since then but not ready for that. I am in West Mobile off Dawes and I can ONLY imagine Wal-Mart today! I guess I will venture that way soon :-(. Reality is setting in that I need to prepare.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
I can't help but laugh at the idea that people think this is falling completely apart. Its center is over the extreme eastern tip of Cuba and moving NW, which means it will already emerge off the coast very shortly. It has a well-defined center and well-defined core as advertised by microwave imagery from a few hours ago.

Truly all u guys are crazy lol!
Quoting StormJunkie:


Actually, I would argue that that says the circulation is a little decoupled. The LLC is to the SW of that band right on the coast of Cuba. That is about an hour old and is an excellent representation of what is going on with the storm right now. Couple that with visible loops and it is evident that Isaac is struggling right now. But that was to be expected.
I don't believe so; fixate your eyes on the lower-level cloud deck and you'll see the surface circulation basically on the southeastern tip of the Cuban coast. I doubt that Isaac will spend anymore than 45 minutes to an hour over mainland, if not just a scrape along the coast.

New blog up.
Quoting Tazmanian:



that rader is crap


Because an ARSR4 was designed for the FAA to primarily be a long range/high altitude Air Route Surveillance Radar

It has weather capabilities, but they are very limited in comparison to a dopplar.

Quoting ILwthrfan:


No, but it is why the NHC is being EXTREMELY conservative with a CAT 1 cane instead of a CAT 4. Look at the history analogs of the storms that passed through here. 2 out of the 5 became hurricanes with the others being less. These islands are a tall task for a tropical system to overcome.


True. But just as many storms were TDs over the passage over the islands and eventually bombed out in the GOMEX. He is not going to look good right now due to dry air and land interaction.

But...this will not be a busted forecast. I think a strong TS or weak Cat 1 will hit S. FL and Keys.

I think the northern GOMEX has the most to worry about
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Reed just pointed out where I think the center is. The western part of the circulation seems to be scraping Cuba, but the...center of the center looks to be farther northwest.




Good spot. It's now through the channel. It would now have to start moving due west to be over Cuba.
Wooble baby, wooble baby, wooble baby, wooble, yeah
Wooble baby, wooble baby, wooble baby, wooble, yeah
Wooble baby, wooble baby, wooble baby, wooble, yeah

Get in there, yeah, yeah
Get in there, yeah, yeah
NORTH, SOUTH, EAST, WEST......YAY!!! Everybody's RIGHT!!!!! Gettin ridiculous in here...
mid level wind shear



Where is the MJO now? Is it in our neck of the woods.
If anyone can post it--thx.
2829. MrMixon
There is a NEW BLOG
Quoting ALlisa:

I would say I love your user name but not :-) ...very young during frederic but still remember so much about that hurricane (before, during and after). So much has changed since then but not ready for that. I am in West Mobile off Dawes and I can ONLY imagine Wal-Mart today! I guess I will venture that way soon :-(. Reality is setting in that I need to prepare.


I don't think he is going to make it as far west as Mobile. I say a Panama City landfall is more likely.

I would wait to buy your supplies until Monday.

Mobile could be on the West side of the storm which would mean less serious effects. No need to freak out just yet ;)
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
I don't believe so; fixate your eyes on the lower-level cloud deck and you'll see the surface circulation basically on the southeastern tip of the Cuban coast. I doubt that Isaac will spend anymore than 45 minutes to an hour over mainland, if not just a scrape along the coast.



The LLC is just off the coast between Cajobabo and Rio Seco. The mid-level circulation is slightly to the NW of that. Not perfectly stacked. Now go look at the mountains in that area.

Again, the way it looks now was to be expected, and no it would not take a lot for him to recover if/when he gets off the Cuban Coast and in to the Atl/Straits. But right now he is limping along and just trying to hold it all together.
2833. SLU
25/1200 UTC 12.8N 30.4W T1.0/1.0 97L -- Atlantic
25/1145 UTC 19.9N 73.6W T3.0/3.0 ISAAC -- Atlantic
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
97L at 384HR

This is not 97L, is the one well behind it
Quoting ALlisa:

I would say I love your user name but not :-) ...very young during frederic but still remember so much about that hurricane (before, during and after). So much has changed since then but not ready for that. I am in West Mobile off Dawes and I can ONLY imagine Wal-Mart today! I guess I will venture that way soon :-(. Reality is setting in that I need to prepare.


I'm in Pascagoula MS. I feel much better now that we are close to be out of the cone. I think that we will see advisories issued soon but I don't think they will be issued for MS. Mobile to Panama Beach is a different story tho. I will keep you guys in my prayers. I think this is almost settled and anywhere between Pcola and Panama beach will be directly hit, so better to be prepared.
Now that the storm is this far north it can now more strongly feel the weakness just east of Florida on the periphery of the Bermuda ridge as it continues to weaken!!!
Quoting GetReal:
Quoting CoastalAlabama:



To anyone in coastal Alabama region:

I am new to Alabama, came from Coastal Texas. What is typical storm surge in Mobile Bay?? I know highly dependent, but for example during Ike in 2008 we had it come around almost entire backside of Galveston Island (aka S. Houston). And that was for a strong Cat 1 / weak Cat 2...but it had lots of time to pile up the water. Shallow shelf.

What is storm surge like for Mobile Bay??



You also want to stay out of the two traffic tunnels during a hurricane.... I understand that they both go underwater!!! (sarcasm)
They actually do close the old one on Hwy 90 ( Government St.) the Bankhead Tunnel usually gets water from the bayside in it since it opens at the bay. They have a gate that closes off that end. Dauphin Island usually gets hammered
Does anyone have the "KEYS" to this storm?
2839. etxwx
Quick newsbreak about Typhoons Bolaven and Tembin and possible Fujiwhara effect. Bolaven is the 15th Typhoon this year.
Interaction may strengthen typhoons
China Daily 08-25-2012 The interaction between the severe typhoons Tembin and Bolaven, known as the Fujiwhara effect, will bring torrential rains, strong gusts of wind and rough seawater to the southeastern parts of China, a senior weather forecaster said. "The twin typhoons are likely to rotate around each other if they get close (about 1,500 kilometers), bringing strengthened power," Qian Chuanhai, a typhoon expert at the China Meteorological Administration, told China Daily on Friday.

Story continues here.
11:00 AM EDT Sat Aug 25
Location: 20.1°N 74.6°W
Moving: NW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 998 mb
Max sustained: 60 mph
Where is Levi? I want some tropical tidbits.
[Jeff wrote] "Fay actually strengthened another 5 mph to a 70 mph tropical storm while its center was over land near the western end of Lake Okeechobee."

If you've ever been in the swamps of Florida, or in the bigger rivers where they're wide, slow, and shallow, you'll quickly realize that it can be hotter than the Gulf or ocean SSTs, and full of humidity. Making "landfall" along certain stretches of the Florida coast is a misnomer, as there is as much or more convection energy on "land" as it was seeing over the water. Please don't be too surprised that it did that.
Quoting pottery:

... and it seems that the worst of the rainfall is still to come, for them.


Yes - I fear that Haiti has far worse to come for perhaps another 24 hours