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CRISTOBAL heads Out to Sea / Invest 98 in GOM / Disturbance approaches CARIB

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:05 PM GMT on August 27, 2014

(By Steve Gregory - Subbing for Dr. Masters who is on Vacation.)

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL


CRISTOBAL is located about 360NM SE of Cape Hatteras moving North at around 11Kts. The storm remains a minimal hurricane with sustained surface winds around 65Kts. ALL models call for the storm to turn NNE and then NE at an accelerated pace as an upper air, mid-latitude TROF moves into the Northeastern US. While the storm may see some additional intensification from the high level divergent flow ahead of the NE U.S. TROF and associated baroclinic forcing – the storm will be transitioning rather quickly tomorrow to an extratropical storm as it heads northeast into the NORATL shipping lanes. (I for one am glad to see this extremely tough system to forecast departing our area of interest!)

INVEST 98L and ‘EX INVEST 97L’

While NHC dropped 97L early yesterday – it added INVEST 98L earlier this morning. INVEST 98L in the NW GOM originated at the ‘tail end’ of a very strong mid-level Dry Line that surged south/southwest from the SE US across Florida and into the northern Gulf of Mexico (GOM) 2 days ago – triggering a line of very strong T-storms along and ahead of it. While the dry line boundary has begun to fade away (though relatively dry air continues to dominate much of the GOM) a small surface circulation has formed in the NW GOM, centered about 200NM east of Corpus Christi, TX. An area of convection, with some isolated deep convection, is near and to the North and Northeast of the Low itself. The convection and surface circulation is quasi-stationary, and with wind shear of 30Kts over most of the system, significant development is unlikely for at least the next 24 hours. The first run of specialized tropical cyclone models (12Z cycle) are in remarkably good agreement on forecasting the system to move slowly westward into south Texas in 48-72 hours. With a generally anti-cyclonic flow aloft, and some of the warmest SST’s seen in years in this part of the GOM, and falloff in wind shear to under 15Kts could allow this small disturbance to spin-up prior to moving inland. That said - I doubt the system could ever develop beyond depression intensity.

' EX INVEST 97L' STILL WORTH WATCHING’

While yesterday’s Global model runs had forecast what was 97L to develop into a significant cyclone, the last few runs have completely backed away on this. However, most of the global models now forecast this elongated wave near the eastern CARIB to move across the CARIB towards the Yucatan over the weekend, with some models showing a small cyclone formation in the southern GOM next week.

There has been a dramatic increase in moisture both with the westbound wave and with a moisture plume from the deep (Equatorial) tropics in South America (SOAMER) that has been surging northward ahead of the wave for over 24 hours. Though wind shear is over 30Kts over much of the eastern CARIB (and will remain relatively high for the next few days) there is a somewhat anti-cyclonic flow developing between a small upper air Low/TROF in the west central CARIB and the approaching T.W. in the far eastern CARIB. This anti-cyclonic curvature of the high level wind field may develop further and move westward as the tropical wave traverses the CARIB over the next few days – and shear speeds may drop off during the weekend. Clearly a system worth monitoring over the coming days.

STRONG DISTURBANCE STILL WESTBOUND OVER AFRICA

One of the season's strongest ‘Cape Verde’ disturbances is emerging off the West African coast, with virtually all global models forecasting the system to gradually intensify over the weekend as it heads West/Northwest. This strong wave with a cyclonic circulation field has a long history since it developed in the highlands of east-central Africa last weekend and has maintained a low-mid level circulation and significant convection as it crossed north Africa. The most reliable models (especially the GFS) have consistently shown this system developing into a strong cyclone this weekend and early next week – but also shows the system turning Northwestward and eventually northward as it approaches the central Atlantic. The latest (12Z GFS) model run has shown this recurvature occurring a bit further west than earlier runs - but the ‘theme’ of ultimately turning this system out to sea before it can impact the CARIB or US remains unchanged.

ONCE POWERFUL HURRICANE MARIE POUNDING CALIFORNIA COAST WITH LARGE SWELLS

Hurricane MARIE should soon be downgraded to a Tropical storm – and then Depression - within 24 hours as the storm’s rapidly warming cloud tops clearly indicate the storm is moving over much cooler SST’s (under 24°C). The storm is about 900NM SW of Los Angeles and continues to move W/NW at about 13Kts, and will turn more Northwestward in 24-36 hrs and gradually fade away.

The very large and damaging swells from Marie along the Baja and southern CA coast beaches (and to a lessor degree, the original wave action from Karina which became coherent with the large swells from Marie) appear to have peaked this morning, with reported swell heights overnight reaching 10-15 feet, and isolated 20ft heights in some ‘coves’ along the south/southwest facing beach’s. The NWS has maintained advisories for beaches from Ventura to San Diego for “damaging high surf, very strong rip currents and minor coastal flooding.” The LAX areas expecting the highest surf are Long Beach through the Palos Verdes Peninsula, including Cabrillo Beach and Point Fermin, as well as Malibu and Zuma beaches. The biggest waves are expected to hit in Orange County, especially the Huntington and Newport Beach areas. Wave heights should gradually decline over the next 48 hours, with heights expected to fall off to near normal on Saturday.



Fig 1: Early morning imagery shows departing CRISTOBAL, along with the small Low pressure area in the far NW GOM (INVEST 98L) - the large, elongated Tropical Wave near the eastern CARIB (EX 97L) – and the strong tropical wave/Low near the west African coast. The forecast tracks for these system are based on the consensus of the 00Z Global Model solutions and the 12Z Early Model runs in the case of 98L.



Fig 2: The above Water Vapor image from earlier this AM shows a small convective ‘ball’ with isolated deep convection, and a surface Low that is INVEST 98L. This formed at the tail end of a remarkably strong ‘Dry Line’ that pushed S/SW into the northern GOM 2 days ago. Much of the Gulf remains under a very dry environment – in stark contrast to the rapidly moistening CARIB as a moisture plume continues to develop in the central CARIB along with expansive moisture (and isolated to scattered deep convection) associated with the elongated Tropical Wave in the far eastern CARIB. Based on imagery loops, moisture from the ITCZ south of the Tropical Wave also appears to be moving northward towards the wave itself.



Fig 3: The early morning wind shear analysis shows high shear values of 30Kts+ over 98L and 20-30Kts over the eastern CARIB. There is a chance that the anti-cyclone over the central GOM may shift further northward allowing shear values to fall, allowing for a more favorable venting environment for the system to develop before it moves inland on Saturday.



Fig 4: Should atmospheric conditions become more favorable for development for 98L, SST’s of 30°C or higher will certainly provide more than enough energy for quick development.



Fig 5: The IR image with satellite derived winds shows the still quite strong Tropical Low/Wave complex emerging off the West African coast. It also shows the large convective complex that was over east Africa that developed just west of southernmost Saudi Arabia several days ago. However, unlike the leading wave near the Cape Verdes, the central African wave does not have a well defined rotation – though a fairly strong African Easterly Jet (AEJ) with E/NE winds over 60Kts (not shown) from south of Saudi Arabia and nosing east/southeast into the central African Wave, may yet help to develop this wave. At this point though, none of the models show significant development of this system.



Fig 6: Hurricane MARIE is weakening rapidly, but the large swells generated by the storm earlier this week continue to move into the Baja and southern CA coast. Offshore Buoys show swells heights of 8-11 ft. However, under water topography – and the possibility of ‘rogue’ waves - mean swell heights could still reach 20+ ft along some southern CA locations today and early tonight before swell wave train heights lower significantly.

The next update will be by Dr. Jeff Masters tomorrow.

For those interested , you can follow my Tropical updates on my own blog tomorrow (located Here).

Steve Gregory

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 492. sar2401:

Looks like a monster.



In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king...
Quoting opal92nwf:
Looking good. If we can get just one classic MDR Cape Verde major hurricane, that would heal this blog.
It's coming. Not until 2015...late 2015...but it's coming.
Quoting 498. FOREX:

GFS a real snoozer through 168 hours.


2014 Atlantic Hurricane Season - Ok Folks move along, nothing to see here.
Quoting 501. EdMahmoud:




In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king...


Might almost be a tropical depression in 6.5 days at landfall in Mexico.

Quoting 497. Dakster:



I didn't say it like it was a bad thing...

No worries' just sayin'... :)
Quoting EdMahmoud:



In the land of the blind, the one eyed man is king...
I'm deaf in my left ear. What does that make me?

How about if everyone posts what their maximum sky cover was today? Mine was only 5%. I was pretty excited.
Quoting EdMahmoud:


Might almost be a tropical depression in 6.5 days at landfall in Mexico.

At least that's after Labor Day so it won't...ah, wait, did you Mexico...well, I guess it really doesn't matter then.
508. FOREX
GFS void of action through 192 hours.
509. SLU
This is one of the reasons why the UKMET and EURO models have always been given more respect internationally than the US hurricane models like the GFS and NAVGEM

FWIW, the Tropical Cyclone Reports for tropical storms Boris and Elida, and Hurricane Cristina, have been posted by the NHC.

I'll have the ACE and all the sections filled out on Wikipedia sometime tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Boris, 2-4 June 2014: 40kt, 998mb
Hurricane Cristina, 9-15 June 2014: 130kt, 935mb
Tropical Storm Elida, 30 June-2 July 2014: 45kt, 1002mb
Quoting 506. sar2401:

I'm deaf in my left ear. What does that make me?

How about if everyone posts what their maximum sky cover was today? Mine was only 5%. I was pretty excited.


Wow thats awesome sar I am really glad you told that story.
Quoting 506. sar2401:

I'm deaf in my left ear. What does that make me?

How about if everyone posts what their maximum sky cover was today? Mine was only 5%. I was pretty excited.


99% - Never stopped misting... They call it rain here, but is it rain if you can walk around in it for hours and not get wet?
Quoting 509. SLU:

This is one of the reasons why the UKMET and EURO models have always been given more respect internationally than the US hurricane models like the GFS and NAVGEM



The ECMWF missed numerous tropical cyclones last year, including a 130kt super typhoon in the West Pacific. Predicting tropical cyclogenesis is one of its downfalls.
Quoting Dakster:


99% - Never stopped misting... They call it rain here, but is it rain if you can walk around in it for hours and not get wet?
But did you see any of that 1% not misting or are you just guessing?
Quoting 516. sar2401:

But did you see any of that 1% not misting or are you just guessing?


Yep, it stopped for a brief second and the sun poked through - and then it immediately when back to misting again. BTW - Still light out here at the moment. If it wasn't so overcast it would be bright out.
Quoting 509. SLU:

This is one of the reasons why the UKMET and EURO models have always been given more respect internationally than the US hurricane models like the GFS and NAVGEM


Lol the Euro is not good with genesis. Remember that the Gfs always drop a system to pick it up at the last minute.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The ECMWF missed numerous tropical cyclones last year, including a 130kt super typhoon in the West Pacific. Predicting tropical cyclogenesis is one of its downfalls.
I'll tell you what though, no hurt feelings among our British and European friends I hope, but the GFS has done a pretty good job with genesis and track this year. It got a little confused for a couple runs with Cristobal but the ultimate track has been very close to what it forecast, at least as compared to "It's going to flatten {insert name of city you want flattened here}!!!".
Quoting Dakster:


Yep, it stopped for a brief second and the sun poked through - and then it immediately when back to misting again. BTW - Still light out here at the moment. If it wasn't so overcast it would be bright out.
OK then. I wanted to make sure you weren't pulling a fast one on us. It's been dark here for almost four hours. Apparently, you're hogging all the sunshine.
522. FOREX
GFS dead through 384 hours. Great. shrug.
Well, this is really depressing. It was pointed out to me today, much to my surprise, that I hit 15,000 posts! I was feeling pretty smug with my posting ability until I noticed that Kori, who has been here for over two years less than me, has over 20,000 posts!!

I now have no other choice but to engage in an extended flurry of repetitious posts about every two minutes for the next four months (by my calculations) if I am to vanquish Kori and restore my self-esteem!!! Is there any other blogger here that I can use as example for such a feat? Perhaps someone with as many numbers in their handle as me? I'm drawing a blank so far...
Quoting 523. sar2401:

Well, this is really depressing. It was pointed out to me today, much to my surprise, that I hit 15,000 posts! I was feeling pretty smug with my posting ability until I noticed that Kori, who has been here for over two years less than me, has over 20,000 posts!!

I now have no other choice but to engage in an extended flurry of repetitious posts about every two minutes for the next four months (by my calculations) if I am to vanquish Kori and restore my self-esteem!!! Is there any other blogger here that I can use as example for such a feat? Perhaps someone with as many numbers in their handle as me? I'm drawing a blank so far...
I fill half of your qualifications. The wrong one.
Wrong, forex. Gfs shows the Boc system at 144 hrs. It has been consistent on showing this.
It's a weak ts on the run. Ed. Remember the gfs always undercuts the strength, it may very well indeed be a pretty decent TC going towards Northern Mexico and affecting Southern TX.
Quoting hurricanehunter5753:
I fill half of your qualifications. The wrong one.
Thank goodness. I'm sure someone is out there I can use as a model though. He'll probably return as soon as there's anything that could possibly be construed as needing !!!! shows up.
Sar you've been jovial and humorous for far too many days in a row now, starting to worry about you. Hurricane season driving the blog a little batty, we're already looking forward to TWC's named winter storms and dreaming of the good ol' polar vortex days. Maybe we will get that TD headed to Mexico soon that should put the final nail in blog implosion.
Quoting 461. EdMahmoud:

Now that 98L is a big dud, and as most models predicted, didn't even rain on my lawn, what do we talk about now?


Carl Parker
Quoting 521. sar2401:

OK then. I wanted to make sure you weren't pulling a fast one on us. It's been dark here for almost four hours. Apparently, you're hogging all the sunshine.


Only 9:15pm here though... Sun is starting to set now. 55F and overcast still.
531. red0
I am seeing 40's for lows in our 7 day forecast for the first time here in the Northwest. Winter is knocking at the door.

Quoting 495. Drakoen:

So that monster African wave is not going to produce a storm. Can we just end this season and fast forward to winter.
Quoting 518. allancalderini:

Lol the Euro is not good with genesis. Remember that the Gfs always drop a system to pick it up at the last minute.


The Euro sucks with tropical cyclogenesis, but when it does pick up on something, the false alarm prevalence is statistically low.
Quoting 523. sar2401:

Well, this is really depressing. It was pointed out to me today, much to my surprise, that I hit 15,000 posts! I was feeling pretty smug with my posting ability until I noticed that Kori, who has been here for over two years less than me, has over 20,000 posts!!

I now have no other choice but to engage in an extended flurry of repetitious posts about every two minutes for the next four months (by my calculations) if I am to vanquish Kori and restore my self-esteem!!! Is there any other blogger here that I can use as example for such a feat? Perhaps someone with as many numbers in their handle as me? I'm drawing a blank so far...


Dude, Cody, Taz, and Pat are WAY ahead of me. It might be more meaningful to try and surpass them.
EPAC having an epic season, just very little love for the EPAC here. But outside of we enthusiasts, bet 99% of Americans have 0 idea or care about the EPAC season. Very few in general have any passion for the science and study in general no matter what basin your talking about. Just too many other entertainment options in America. 300 plus million Americans and we're excited when we reach 3K posts during a potential landfalling storm, and this is the best site for this on the web. Is there any wonder why AGW is a 50/50 split in America and the world is even worse? People just don't care and that's been trending in the wrong direction now for some time. The age of anti-intellectualism is here fueled by technology that does all the thinking for us now. Look at our shocking educational collapse, age of selfies and selfish indulgences that mark our twenty somethings and younger now. The generation of "ME" as Time magazine put it. The West is in decline in so many areas now, democracy has morphed into a "policed" democracy in regards to freedoms at a shocking pace, may our military advantage not be matched soon, for it may in a generations time, be all we have left as our mark in dominating the world. It's a slow night, just some food for thought.
Quoting 531. red0:

I am seeing 40's for lows in our 7 day forecast for the first time here in the Northwest. Winter is knocking at the door.




Low 40's and some 30s for us in South Central Alaska... So, yep, winter is a coming.
00z CMC still latching onto a Strong TS (993MB) Near Tampico, MX @156 Hrs. Also 00z GFS Ensemble Members also showing a developing Cyclone as well.
Update: Late Wednesday evening Iceland time, the nation%u2019s meteorological office reported that scientists observed a row of deep %u201Ccauldrons%u201D along the Vatna glacier south of the Bardarbunga caldera. The thirty to fifty-foot deep holes form a long line a few miles in length and were created as a result of melting, possibly from a subglacial eruption that went undetected at some point during the current period of heightened activity. The office reports that about 1,300 tremors have been recorded on Wednesday alone, including a 4.5 magnitude quake near the Askja volcanic system. Below is a photo posted to the Twitter feed of the Icelandic Police.

from forbes...and if my eyes don't deceive me they stated 4 days ago that the threat had been reduced
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located several hundred miles west-northwest of Bermuda.

2. A tropical wave located just west of the Lesser Antilles continues
to produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. This system is
expected to move generally westward across the Caribbean Sea with
little development during the next few days. However, environmental
conditions could become favorable for some development by early next
week in the western Caribbean Sea or the southwestern Gulf of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa
on Friday. Conditions appear to be favorable for some development
thereafter while the system moves westward at 10 to 15 mph across
the eastern Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent.
notting happern for the next five days
wow notting going on here what happern to all them storms are you joking about notting going on in late august!!
Nothing??? Umm whats that in the gulf. Lol. That ain't nothing for sure. Open you're eyes please.
Quoting 453. BahaHurican:

You have to watch it anyway, because even if the Tstorms and rain die off, the low centre may remain strong. That's what the GFS was picking up on anyway... the low. I want to see this in 24 hours.... give it a chance to adapt to the water...


That's because the low is still over land, that was just the tropical wave axis that died out, circulation is over land still, give it another 6-12 hours before it reaches the waters off of Africa.
only one name storm now to unit September 4 2014 not good at all.. this time of year we have three storms going on at the same time!!


very weak low at 1010mb in 78 hours!


120 hours 1013 low!


156 hours no more low its over now for the tropical wave coming off of AFRICAN COAST by Friday


TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
205 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0000 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
0545 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS IN THE EASTERN ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING FROM
21N28W TO A 1013 MB LOW NEAR 10N26W AND MOVING W AT 20 KT. NO
CONVECTION IS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS SAHARAN DRY AIR AND
DUST CONTINUE IN THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.

A TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLC WITH AXIS EXTENDING
FROM 20N39W TO 10N37W AND MOVES W AT 20 KT. NO CONVECTION IS
ASSOCIATED WITH THE WAVE AS
SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUE IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.


all year long saying the same thing about 1,000 times is SAHARAN DRY AIR AND DUST CONTINUE IN
THE ENVIRONMENT OF THE WAVE.
Good morning.

CSU two week forecast from August 28 thru September 10 is up and has a grim picture for those of us that like to track TC's in the North Atlantic basin for the next two weeks as it calls for a below average two week period.

CSU two week forecast from August 28 thru September 10
Good morning. Looks like a flair up for 98L.
Quoting 548. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

CSU two week forecast from August 28 thru September 10 is up and points a grim picture for those of us that like to track TC's in the next two weeks as it calls for a below average two week period.

CSU two week forecast from August 28 thru September 10

Ive been saying that since june. but no one would listen to me


Just another flare up like yesterday. This one looks better, but if 98L cant hold these storms, it's done..
Quoting 550. Itsgonnasnowsoon:

Ive been saying that since june. but no one would listen to me
i said that under my old screen name
Quoting 549. bayoubug:

Good morning. Looks like a flair up for 98L.


Yep. Convection still sheared off to the E some though.

Quoting 550. Itsgonnasnowsoon:

Ive been saying that since june. but no one would listen to me


Saying it to yourself? You joined 2 days ago. I find it funny when people feel the need to point out how right they were...Keep up the entertaining.

As for the season...It's been a slow one and will likely continue to be. Not only is it dry out there, but looks to be a fair amount of shear around as well. Couple that with a lower than normal amount of instability...and well it's not difficult to make that two week prediction.
Good morning. invest 98L got new t.storms in the center! maybe % will go up!!
Yes it looks like it's still being sheared but this convection looksbetter than yesterday's and it looks great on radar.
Very interesting comments from Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal storm forecast. “ While we’ve had three hurricanes in the Atlantic, they have all been short-lived and rather ugly,” Klotzbach said in a telephone interview earlier this week. When it comes to Atlantic hurricanes, brief and ugly is beautiful, at least to Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal storm forecast. “ That’s because a ragged-looking tropical system that only lasts a few days is an indication that conditions across the basin aren’t helping these storms form or thrive.” “Shear in the Caribbean has also been much stronger than normal so far this year. All in all, I’m pleased with the way the forecast is looking so far this year. There is another piece to all of this. The shear that kept hurricanes Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal short and ugly has almost certainly killed off a few other potential storms before they could even form in the steady string of African waves that drift across the Atlantic every summer.” That means fewer chances for Florida orange growers, Gulf of Mexico energy operations and homeowners along the East and Gulf coasts to be beaten up by high winds, flooding storm surgeand heavy rains. That may also mean Klotzbach’s forecast, calling for a below-average 10-storm season, will stay on track.
Quoting 550. Itsgonnasnowsoon:

Ive been saying that since june. but no one would listen to me
to much dry air in the Central Atlantic right now any tropical wave go in the Central Atlantic will die out
Beautiful day here.Temps and humidity will not be so beautiful.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Friday. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual
development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the eastern Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

starting to go down fast!!!!
Impressive flare up of convection with 98L this AM. Looks as though it is becoming stationary as well from the Brownsville, TX radar.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located a few hundred miles northwest of Bermuda.

1. A weak area of low pressure near the coast of South Texas is
producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Significant
development of this system is unlikely before it moves inland over
South Texas and northern Mexico today.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

2. A tropical wave located over the eastern Caribbean Sea continues to
produce disorganized cloudiness and showers. Upper-level winds are
expected to remain unfavorable for development during the next
couple of days while the system moves across the eastern and central
Caribbean Sea. However, environmental conditions could become
conducive for some development when the system moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea on Sunday and into the southwestern Gulf
of Mexico early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Friday. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual
development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the eastern Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent
Quoting 556. DelawareJack:

Very interesting comments from Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal storm forecast. “ While we’ve had three hurricanes in the Atlantic, they have all been short-lived and rather ugly,” Klotzbach said in a telephone interview earlier this week. When it comes to Atlantic hurricanes, brief and ugly is beautiful, at least to Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal storm forecast. “ That’s because a ragged-looking tropical system that only lasts a few days is an indication that conditions across the basin aren’t helping these storms form or thrive.” “Shear in the Caribbean has also been much stronger than normal so far this year. All in all, I’m pleased with the way the forecast is looking so far this year. There is another piece to all of this. The shear that kept hurricanes Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal short and ugly has almost certainly killed off a few other potential storms before they could even form in the steady string of African waves that drift across the Atlantic every summer.” That means fewer chances for Florida orange growers, Gulf of Mexico energy operations and homeowners along the East and Gulf coasts to be beaten up by high winds, flooding storm surgeand heavy rains. That may also mean Klotzbach’s forecast, calling for a below-average 10-storm season, will stay on track.


I got 5 to 7 named systems. Probably will be closer to 7 but I don't see anymore than that as the Atlantic Basin looks horrible right now and its September in a few days which is the Peak of hurricane season.
Been in FL 5 weeks now.. walk outside this morning and it feels cold!? Check temp it's 76F -climate acclimation: complete.
we have a yellow x with no clouds here! its so dry here
NHC brought down the African AOI from 40% to 30%

Former 97L no change in % yet however only a day or two before environment get better and decent development can start according to TWO

98L same story as before
Quoting hurricanes2018:
we have a yellow x with no clouds here! its so dry here

That X should have been further W IMHO
But looking on satellite looks like 98L wants to atleast try to make it to TD status

To be honest it don't look to bad at the moment considering how this season gone so far
Quoting 566. hurricanes2018:

we have a yellow x with no clouds here! its so dry here


2014 strikes again. If this is all we got going into September then you can pretty much right this season off. However still think our biggest threat will come after September 15th as troughs start digging further south we could see the western Caribbean flare up into possibly our strongest system in 2 years. There are hints on the models that pressures will lower pretty good across the Caribbean & FL later September so that may be our best chance to get a real looking hurricane.
Quoting 533. KoritheMan:



Dude, Cody, Taz, and Pat are WAY ahead of me. It might be more meaningful to try and surpass them.


In April 2012, my teenage son sent out 17,000 text messages.
Maybe 98L will become 05L before landfall near CRP.

Semi-related, 6Z NAM drops over 2.5 inches of rain the next 84 hours. Sadly, it is the NAM. 6Z GFS is closer to an inch in 84 hours, and is probably closer to correct.

Only half a system, but if they bothered with an airplane today, this could be 05L. At least the convection is in the same time zone as the likely surface low.



Quoting 564. StormTrackerScott:


I got 5 to 7 named systems. Probably will be closer to 7 but I don't see anymore than that as the Atlantic Basin looks horrible right now and its September in a few days which is the Peak of hurricane season.


There could be a few that may develop in September-November resulting from troughs pushing south.
Good Morning all..

Moisture set to return to most of Florida today after a short break from the circulation around Christobal.

Quoting 569. wunderkidcayman:

But looking on satellite looks like 98L wants to atleast try to make it to TD status

To be honest it don't look to bad at the moment considering how this season gone so far


It's trying to consolidate a little under the convection. Had an elongated circulation, but that looks to have shifted E some. May give it just enough time to reach TD before landfall. Convection is waning some, but if it can manage to maintain at least some of that through the day it may have a shot. Keep an eye on the radar.
Good Morning Folks.  Does not look like the wave coming off of Africa is as robust today as it looked the past few days; not much left for possible development as far as I can see as it seems to have fizzled out:





Quoting 556. DelawareJack:

Very interesting comments from Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal storm forecast. “ While we’ve had three hurricanes in the Atlantic, they have all been short-lived and rather ugly,” Klotzbach said in a telephone interview earlier this week. When it comes to Atlantic hurricanes, brief and ugly is beautiful, at least to Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal storm forecast. “ That’s because a ragged-looking tropical system that only lasts a few days is an indication that conditions across the basin aren’t helping these storms form or thrive.” “Shear in the Caribbean has also been much stronger than normal so far this year. All in all, I’m pleased with the way the forecast is looking so far this year. There is another piece to all of this. The shear that kept hurricanes Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal short and ugly has almost certainly killed off a few other potential storms before they could even form in the steady string of African waves that drift across the Atlantic every summer.” That means fewer chances for Florida orange growers, Gulf of Mexico energy operations and homeowners along the East and Gulf coasts to be beaten up by high winds, flooding storm surgeand heavy rains. That may also mean Klotzbach’s forecast, calling for a below-average 10-storm season, will stay on track.
Orange growers are afraid of long freezes and none of the other things he mentions. Sounds like he is reading from someone else's script, and they work for the insurance lobby.
Quoting 548. Tropicsweatherpr:

Good morning.

CSU two week forecast from August 28 thru September 10 is up and has a grim picture for those of us that like to track TC's in the North Atlantic basin for the next two weeks as it calls for a below average two week period.

CSU two week forecast from August 28 thru September 10




Low amplitude to begin with and heading into phase 3, the CSU boredom forecast sounds reasonable.

Quoting 493. Dakster:



Some people put the 'fun' in dysfunctional...



And some people put the dys in functional. And then some people, apparently normal themselves are carriers, esp management of American companies
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 26m

elongated rotation center off S Texas coast. Shows why pattern recognition from last week has value. http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?rid=BRO&p roduct=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes …
Quoting 558. washingtonian115:

Beautiful day here.Temps and humidity will not be so beautiful.


Better than yesterday but it looks like summer will hang on through next week. Early September warmth is a problem for cold season fall crops I try to get started in August but this means I have "a problem" a lot of years here. A later start though means they freeze or are stopped by winter temperatures.

Around here you plant peas before August 1 but after August 25 to get a reliable crop in fall. I keep trying
Quoting 579. Pallis1:

Orange growers are afraid of long freezes and none of the other things he mentions. Sounds like he is reading from someone else's script, and they work for the insurance lobby.


Insurance is a major source of CSU long lead time seasonal forecasting, it doesn't make them puppets, and a Cat 4 in citrus country can't hurt the trees or at least strip the fruit off the trees?
587. SLU
Quoting 556. DelawareJack:

Very interesting comments from Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal storm forecast. “ While we’ve had three hurricanes in the Atlantic, they have all been short-lived and rather ugly,” Klotzbach said in a telephone interview earlier this week. When it comes to Atlantic hurricanes, brief and ugly is beautiful, at least to Phil Klotzbach, lead author of Colorado State University’s seasonal storm forecast. “ That’s because a ragged-looking tropical system that only lasts a few days is an indication that conditions across the basin aren’t helping these storms form or thrive.” “Shear in the Caribbean has also been much stronger than normal so far this year. All in all, I’m pleased with the way the forecast is looking so far this year. There is another piece to all of this. The shear that kept hurricanes Arthur, Bertha and Cristobal short and ugly has almost certainly killed off a few other potential storms before they could even form in the steady string of African waves that drift across the Atlantic every summer.” That means fewer chances for Florida orange growers, Gulf of Mexico energy operations and homeowners along the East and Gulf coasts to be beaten up by high winds, flooding storm surgeand heavy rains. That may also mean Klotzbach’s forecast, calling for a below-average 10-storm season, will stay on track.


For his forecast of 10-4-1 to verify, we need to go 7-1-1 from here onward. At least he might regain the faith of the sponsors this year to continue his forecasts.
Don't know that 98L is going to be able to pull off TD-TS status if the coc keeps drifting inland.  Some nice convection however going offshore but it seems to be well displaced to the East of the coc:
   

Quoting 588. weathermanwannabe:
Don't know that 98L is going to be able to pull off TD-TS status if the coc keeps drifting inland.  Some nice convection however going offshore but it seems to be well displaced to the East of the coc:
   



That weather graphic shows just how dry it is in and around Florida.
On a related weather note, the temps/weather has been absolutely beautiful here in North Florida in the overnight and early morning hours; still hot during the day but nice and cool overnight lately and sleeping with the windows open (saving on the electric bill)...................Seems to me like early Fall is in the air for now.
Hey look there is like no dry air in the Caribbean!
From what I can see the LLC is near 26.2N 96.9W moving E what's likely happening is the LLC is getting sucked into the convective blob should continues back W once it's under the convection
I think we could have TD 5 today if this indeed happens
I will be at a Conference in Orlando all next week and will not be on the Blog but not looking like we might see much development, in terms of any CV storms, as there is nothing on the horizon on the African continent. It has been very interesting so far this year. El Nino issues aside (potential shear suppressing cv development), the big story this season so far has been the absence of a viable Central Atlantic ITCZ and the relative lack of viable waves emerging off the African coast................We normally see about 60 waves cross the Atlantic every year during the entire Atlantic Season and I would be hard pressed to count more than 10 so far. The absence of waves over Africa is a little perplexing as I am not aware of any drought issues in the Sahel.
Quoting 592. wunderkidcayman:

From what I can see the LLC is near 26.2N 96.9W moving E what's likely happening is the LLC is getting sucked into the convective blob should continues back W once it's under the convection
I think we could have TD 5 today if this indeed happens


Convection is dying off and the MLC that was associated with it has been sheared off and will likely dissipate.
Here is the current worldwide average 24 hour precip; notice the rain in the Sahel but we are not getting many viable waves emerging this season regardless:

Quoting 533. KoritheMan:



Dude, Cody, Taz, and Pat are WAY ahead of me. It might be more meaningful to try and surpass them.


I'm going to pass both you and sar in no time flat. :) But college might slow me down a little bit...
Quoting 584. SFLWeatherman:



Too close to land for strenghtening
98L convection is flaring up!

Will 98L try to become Dolly .. before landfall?

So many of these type of systems in the extreme W or SW Gulf of Mexico try to flare up at the last moment, just before they move ashore.

As someone already mentioned .... keep an "eye" on the radar! It is worth watching, at least for the next few hours.

Still thinking that we will see more action in the Atlantic Basin. Although the peak of the hurricane season is statistically Sept 10-11, that is just an average. It could be a little earlier, or possibly later than that date .... we will see!
Have you ever had a Tropical Depression form right over your head?

PensacolaDoug and I have! :)

It's a pretty awesome thing to see and experience!
invest 98L looking better this morning!!
Quoting 571. georgevandenberghe:



In April 2012, my teenage son sent out 17,000 text messages.


My parents want me to stay at a pace of 500-1000 a month, I think.

I don't even know how someone could send 17,000. What is that?

"H"
"I"

???

Email, skype, FB, twitter, so many free options...
Quoting 595. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the current worldwide average 24 hour precip; notice the rain in the Sahel but we are not getting many viable waves emerging this season regardless:


Maybe is a little late in the season.
Quoting SFLWeatherman:
Hey look there is like no dry air in the Caribbean!

I know I saw it yesterday it's about time
Well we do know that dry air and SAL will not be a inhibiting factor for the former 97L
And shear not too much of a problem high shear is only in the NE Caribbean from about 16N and Northwards and between 60W and 70W everywhere else in the Caribbean is lower shear and is decreasing

Vort is increasing and stacked from 925mb up to 500mb
500mb is still weaker however a good increase compared to yesterday

Area has low level convergence and upper divergence

The trades are a wee bit on the high side but should not be too detrimental to the the system

Quoting 599. CycloneOz:

Have you ever had a Tropical Depression form right over your head?

PensacolaDoug and I have! :)

It's a pretty awesome thing to see and experience!


Beryl in 1988 formed over the marshlands of southern Louisiana. I wasn't born until 1991 so I obviously don't remember it.

However, I would not be opposed to having it happen again. Awesome stuff.

Quoting 602. prcane4you:

Maybe is a little late in the season.

Where is the ITCZ this year over Africa and the Central Atlantic?

c. Africa

1) June-September 1996: Western Africa (Sahel) rainy season

The Sahel region (8°-18oN, 17oW-20oE) receives about 90% of its mean annual precipitation during the June-September period. This rainfall is closely related to the north-south movement of the ITCZ, which begins its northward movement in March and reaches its northernmost position (15oN) in August. Precipitation varies widely throughout the region, with the northern regions typically recording 100-300 mm during the season and the southern areas receiving well in excess of 500 mm.

Quoting 596. Astrometeor:



I'm going to pass both you and sar in no time flat. :) But college might slow me down a little bit...


Buddy, you have 10,000 more posts to go.

Get on that.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Convection is dying off and the MLC that was associated with it has been sheared off and will likely dissipate.

Maybe maybe not
Quoting 597. prcane4you:

Too close to land for strenghtening
TBH it has 5x more convection than Bertha did when it was designated.
Quoting 605. weathermanwannabe:



Where is the ITCZ this year over Africa and the Central Atlantic?

c. Africa

1) June-September 1996: Western Africa (Sahel) rainy season

The Sahel region (8°-18oN, 17oW-20oE) receives about 90% of its mean annual precipitation during the June-September period. This rainfall is closely related to the north-south movement of the ITCZ, which begins its northward movement in March and reaches its northernmost position (15oN) in August. Precipitation varies widely throughout the region, with the northern regions typically recording 100-300 mm during the season and the southern areas receiving well in excess of 500 mm.

Thank you.
Quoting Stormwatch247:
98L convection is flaring up!

Will 98L try to become Dolly .. before landfall?

So many of these type of systems in the extreme W or SW Gulf of Mexico try to flare up at the last moment, just before they move ashore.

As someone already mentioned .... keep an "eye" on the radar! It is worth watching, at least for the next few hours.

Still thinking that we will see more action in the Atlantic Basin. Although the peak of the hurricane season is statistically Sept 10-11, that is just an average. It could be a little earlier, or possibly later than that date .... we will see!

If anything it would become TD 5
Quoting 606. KoritheMan:



Buddy, you have 10,000 more posts to go.

Get on that.


I've been here for two years, you: 7.5 (roughly).

Easy to do. Should take me a little over a year, if I don't go quiet for long stretches of time.
Quoting 601. Astrometeor:



My parents want me to stay at a pace of 500-1000 a month, I think.

I don't even know how someone could send 17,000. What is that?

"H"
"I"

???

Email, skype, FB, twitter, so many free options...


He had a girlfriend who lived 40 miles away that spring. Hasn't happened again but all of my kids often communicate with peers with short texts rather than single sentences of speech even when within speaking radius
Quoting 601. Astrometeor:



My parents want me to stay at a pace of 500-1000 a month, I think.

I don't even know how someone could send 17,000. What is that?

"H"
"I"

???

Email, skype, FB, twitter, so many free options...


You don't have unlimited texting? wtf mang
614. SLU
Quoting 593. weathermanwannabe:

I will be at a Conference in Orlando all next week and will not be on the Blog but not looking like we might see much development, in terms of any CV storms, as there is nothing on the horizon on the African continent. It has been very interesting so far this year. El Nino issues aside (potential shear suppressing cv development), the big story this season so far has been the absence of a viable Central Atlantic ITCZ and the relative lack of viable waves emerging off the African coast................We normally see about 60 waves cross the Atlantic every year during the entire Atlantic Season and I would be hard pressed to count more than 10 so far. The absence of waves over Africa is a little perplexing as I am not aware of any drought issues in the Sahel.


The waves this year, like last year, have been relative strong all throughout the season. The main issue is that they face more negative development factors than positive ones and hence they have had problems developing.
Quoting 586. EdMahmoud:



Insurance is a major source of CSU long lead time seasonal forecasting, it doesn't make them puppets, and a Cat 4 in citrus country can't hurt the trees or at least strip the fruit off the trees?



In 2004, after Hurricane Charley, one Florida citrus grower almost lost hundreds of millions of dollars in stored, frozen concentrated orange juice due to power loss.
Quoting 593. weathermanwannabe:

I will be at a Conference in Orlando all next week and will not be on the Blog but not looking like we might see much development, in terms of any CV storms, as there is nothing on the horizon on the African continent. It has been very interesting so far this year. El Nino issues aside (potential shear suppressing cv development), the big story this season so far has been the absence of a viable Central Atlantic ITCZ and the relative lack of viable waves emerging off the African coast................We normally see about 60 waves cross the Atlantic every year during the entire Atlantic Season and I would be hard pressed to count more than 10 so far. The absence of waves over Africa is a little perplexing as I am not aware of any drought issues in the Sahel.


A common misconception about tropical waves is that they always have to carry thunderstorms. Most waves are convectiveless for several weeks after hitting the water, often developing a noticeable storm signature when they interact with the ITCZ or monsoon trough over Central America.

There have been waves, they just haven't been convectively abundant to persistent subsident flow in the MDR.
Good news, bad news. A weaker wave may not get pulled poleward until further west.

IMO, poor conditions for development in Atlantic allowing weak waves to stay far south instead of becoming robust waves that would normally develop and go harmlessly OTS. In other words they are getting closer to CONUS before developing.

Quoting 577. weathermanwannabe:

Good Morning Folks.  Does not look like the wave coming off of Africa is as robust today as it looked the past few days; not much left for possible development as far as I can see as it seems to have fizzled out:






Quoting 614. SLU:



The waves this year, like last year, have been relative strong all throughout the season. The main issue is that they face more negative development factors than positive ones and hence they have had problems developing.
I can bet you that if conditions next year are more favorable mother nature is going to troll us and send us weak waves.
I'm reporting west winds here in Brownsville. Other RGV Stations are reporting WNW Winds about 10 mph.
Quoting 610. wunderkidcayman:


If anything it would become TD 5
How are the conditions in th MDR right now?
Quoting 619. HaoleboySurfEC:

Good news, bad news. A weaker wave may not get pulled poleward until further west.

IMO, poor conditions for development in Atlantic allowing weak waves to stay far south instead of becoming robust waves that would normally develop and go harmlessly OTS. In other words they are getting closer to CONUS before developing.




This is pretty much the hallmark of El Nino (or El Nino like years since it's not official yet) years.
The West winds are telling me that 98L has a closed circulation still and off shore
I wonder if they send another plane to potential 05L. Don't think it is in the POD, but I see HDOBs from training flights several times a week, and it is a pretty short flight from Biloxi to offshore BRO/CRP.


8 am EDT TWOAT suggests 'no'.

Maybe an un-named post season depression depending on radar and ground obs as it drifts ashore.
Quoting 626. prcane4you:

This is insane.


Yeah, this place attracts the insane.

Although I suppose I shouldn't be one to talk. I'm just insane in different ways. :)
Quoting 613. KoritheMan:



You don't have unlimited texting? wtf mang


Unlimited texting does not come with unlimited time to text. Focusing on devices rather than face time, studies, hobbies, and responsibilities is bad even if the texting is free
Quoting 624. KoritheMan:



This is pretty much the hallmark of El Nino (or El Nino like years since it's not official yet) years.
kori i don't think it's all el nino. sure shear is the problem but everytime we get a disturbance, it just fizzles to nothing. there's something more complex going on that we don't know and it has been getting progressively worse each year
Quoting 619. HaoleboySurfEC:

Good news, bad news. A weaker wave may not get pulled poleward until further west.

IMO, poor conditions for development in Atlantic allowing weak waves to stay far south instead of becoming robust waves that would normally develop and go harmlessly OTS. In other words they are getting closer to CONUS before developing.


As the others they re strong inland until hit the waters near the Verdes.SST not warmer enough.
Quoting 629. georgevandenberghe:



Unlimited texting does not come with unlimited time to text. Focusing on devices rather than face time, studies, hobbies, and responsibilities is bad even if the texting is free


Yeah but it doesn't really take much effort to text anyway, mitigating that point in most cases.
Quoting 616. kim55:

"The United States will never have a major hurricane hit it again because of the weather manipulation from the us government .When will the American public be told the truth about this .In the short run it might save lives and property in the long run it will be a disaster because everytime man tries to manipulate nature ( Mississippi River ,Everglades. ) it is a disaster !"


Really?
Quoting 630. wunderweatherman123:

kori i don't think it's all el nino. sure shear is the problem but everytime we get a disturbance, it just fizzles to nothing. there's something more complex going on that we don't know and it has been getting progressively worse each year
Dry air?
Quoting prcane4you:
How are the conditions in th MDR right now?

Out in the Atlantic MDR is not too bad either a bit worse than the Caribbean but not bad
It's like the Caribbean but area has SAL and a good amount of dry air higher pockets of shear here and there also is cooler waters out there compared to the Caribbean
98L - Doppler out of Brownsville showing multilayer rotation. Surface level flow still appears to be somewhat open while mid level has closed circulation pattern which is displaced to the east. Relative velocity out of Brownsville shows the mid level green/red couplet very nicely.

Zero line changing angle with time indicating the open surface wave is continuing to the SW as well as the mid level circulation.
Post 620 has been reported what's watch what we say on here thanks
Quoting 628. KoritheMan:



Yeah, this place attracts the insane.

Although I suppose I shouldn't be one to talk. I'm just insane in different ways. :)
not on this one.
640. beell
Quoting EdMahmoud:
I wonder if they send another plane to potential 05L. Don't think it is in the POD, but I see HDOBs from training flights several times a week, and it is a pretty short flight from Biloxi to offshore BRO/CRP.


8 am EDT TWOAT suggests 'no'.

Maybe an un-named post season depression depending on radar and ground obs as it drifts ashore.

Maybe maybe not
Quoting 616. kim55:

The United States will never have a major hurricane hit it again because of the weather manipulation from the us government .When will the American public be told the truth about this .In the short run it might save lives and property in the long run it will be a disaster because everytime man tries to manipulate nature ( Mississippi River ,Everglades. ) it is a disaster !


That is KRAZY! Do U really believe that?

Like the saying goes .... "It is not nice to fool Mother Nature!"

Hurricanes exist for a reason, to disperse heat from the tropics to the polar regions. They have existed way longer than we have.

No one can stop a major hurricane from coming ashore. It will happen again. And again, we are just in a lull for the moment.
Quoting 638. Tazmanian:

Post 620 has been reported what's watch what we saw on here thanks


Have I been a bad boy?
Quoting 635. allancalderini:

Dry air?
same as last year, not dry air, stable air pretty much sucks the life out of anything that has mositure, particularly in the MDR. 3rd year in a row. 1st year was 2012, 2nd year was 2013 and 3rd year is now. the type of hurricanes we got this year are ugly ones. this might be the first time in the atlantic season where we get 0 major hurricanes for 2 years in a row. even in negative AMO, it wasn't this bad
Quoting RGVtropicalWx13:
I'm reporting west winds here in Brownsville. Other RGV Stations are reporting WNW Winds about 10 mph.


It appears to me that the LLC is just about to make landfall between Corpus Christ and Brownsville. The LLC can be seen on the radar out of Corpus Christi. It's hard to see because it doesn't have much precipitation associated with it.
The convection/precipitation seen offshore of Brownsville radar I believe is not the LLC and a mid level feature.

Visible satellte also shows the LLC just about to move onshore very close to the coast.
Yup, mixed signals on El Nino though.

Just ask the experts:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IvmeUStFvz8


Quoting 624. KoritheMan:



This is pretty much the hallmark of El Nino (or El Nino like years since it's not official yet) years.
Quoting 634. kilgores97:

Quoting 616. kim55:

"The United States will never have a major hurricane hit it again because of the weather manipulation from the us government .When will the American public be told the truth about this .In the short run it might save lives and property in the long run it will be a disaster because everytime man tries to manipulate nature ( Mississippi River ,Everglades. ) it is a disaster !"


Really?
He reads too much conspiracies books.
I see some people started early well here is a reminder

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.

invest 98L BIG t.storms and rain with it.
Quoting 637. DellOperator:

98L - Doppler out of Brownsville showing multilayer rotation. Surface level flow still appears to be somewhat open while mid level has closed circulation pattern which is displaced to the east. Relative velocity out of Brownsville shows the mid level green/red couplet very nicely.

Zero line changing angle with time indicating the open surface wave is continuing to the SW as well as the mid level circulation.

Are you sure? Cause I have a west wind here in Brownsville
Quoting 636. wunderkidcayman:


Out in the Atlantic MDR is not too bad either a bit worse than the Caribbean but not bad
It's like the Caribbean but area has SAL and a good amount of dry air higher pockets of shear here and there also is cooler waters out there compared to the Caribbean
Just as I thought.so is almost impossible for anything to form there.Than You.
Quoting 644. wunderweatherman123:

same as last year, not dry air, stable air pretty much sucks the life out of anything that has mositure, particularly in the MDR. 3rd year in a row. 1st year was 2012, 2nd year was 2013 and 3rd year is now. the type of hurricanes we got this year are ugly ones. this might be the first time in the atlantic season where we get 0 major hurricanes for 2 years in a row. even in negative AMO, it wasn't this bad


There's been precedent for two consecutive seasons of no major hurricanes.
Quoting 616. kim55:

The United States will never have a major hurricane hit it again because of the weather manipulation from the us government .When will the American public be told the truth about this .In the short run it might save lives and property in the long run it will be a disaster because everytime man tries to manipulate nature ( Mississippi River ,Everglades. ) it is a disaster !


BTW I did NOT mean to plus + your crazy comment!

Not enough coffee this morning ..... major hurricanes will continue to happen. Would not wish a major cane strike on anyone, been there done that. But it will happen again!
Quoting 648. wunderkidcayman:

I see some people started early well here is a reminder

When using Dr. Masters' blog, please refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion of tropical weather, or the topic of the blog entry itself. Please do not engage in personal attacks or bickering. Material not conforming to these standards should be flagged with the button and ignored.


Well done.
Quoting 634. kilgores97:

Quoting 616. kim55:

"The United States will never have a major hurricane hit it again because of the weather manipulation from the us government .When will the American public be told the truth about this .In the short run it might save lives and property in the long run it will be a disaster because everytime man tries to manipulate nature ( Mississippi River ,Everglades. ) it is a disaster !"


Really?


If that were true then man would fully be responsible for climate change. The temperature rise in the mid latitudes and the opposite for higher latitudes from manipulating weather's natural course would be unimaginable.
Quoting 641. wunderkidcayman:


Maybe maybe not


Is this your new catch phrase? You are guaranteed to never be wrong with it!
12z Coordinates are at 26.2n 96w..that's the llc on the bro radar not crp.
It's hard to see, but I believe the actual LLC is just barely off the coast north of Browsville. The heavy convection well east of Browsnville is not the LLC.
Look hard and you should see the LLC just north of Brownsville very close to the coast.
no way the national hurricane center going make invest 98L a T.D right now the % is so low at 10% and going to hit land soon!!
Looking at the conditions in the Caribbean and also looking at former 97L and how it it going etc
I believe it will start to enter the more favourable condition that's from 70W and westwards by either 18Z tonight or 00Z tomorrow
Now when will the AOI make use of conditions is up to the AOI
Quoting 617. EdMahmoud:



Chemtrails!


Interesting contrails are mentioned. There was a study done in the late 90's by a group of scientists that were working to determine if contrails effected the albedo of the earth by that if the contrails were not present the temperatures at the surface would be considerably warmer. Their theory was unfortunately tested and confirmed in the wake of the 911 tragedy when all air traffic was halted over the CONUS for several days. Many high temperature records were achieved during that short period. Even the appearance of "severe clear" conditions displayed a bluer sky than usual.

Link
Quoting 660. hurricanes2018:

no way the national hurricane center going make invest 98L a T.D right now the % is so low at 10% and going to hit land soon!!
You are completely right on this.
Quoting 661. wunderkidcayman:

Looking at the conditions in the Caribbean and also looking at former 97L and how it it going etc
I believe it will start to enter the more favourable condition that's from 70W and westwards by either 18Z tonight or 00Z tomorrow
Now when will the AOI make use of conditions is up to the AOI


82.15W looks good for RI huh?

97L has no chance in the highly sheared Carib...Unless you count the far NW Carib just before it gets to the Yuc Pen.
The waves this year, like last year, have been relative strong all throughout the season. The main issue is that they face more negative development factors than positive ones and hence they have had problems developing.

maybe the MJO never hangout anymore in the Atlantic. MJO IS allways in the Eastern Pacific
Quoting hurricanes2018:
no way the national hurricane center going make invest 98L a T.D right now the % is so low at 10% and going to hit land soon!!

That don't matter
if NHC sees fit to change the percentage to high on next TWO or create a STWO then make it into a TD they can they have full rights to do so
I've seen NHC do it before so it's nothing new
Look at the hook just north of Browsville just barely off the coast. That's the LLC. That also matches up with the visible satellite which shows the LLC just barely offshore about to move onshore.

665: please no duplicates, btw he's always wrong.
Quoting StormJunkie:


82.15W looks good for RI huh?

97L has no chance in the highly sheared Carib...Unless you count the far NW Carib just before it gets to the Yuc Pen.

What in the living daylight are you on about

The only thing highly sheared about the Caribbean is the extreme NE Caribbean
The rest is generally low

From 70W is favourable
Quoting RGVtropicalWx13:
665: please no duplicates, btw he's always wrong.

Who is ?
672 that's enough ease it back big man
675. SLU
Quoting 621. allancalderini:

I can bet you that if conditions next year are more favorable mother nature is going to troll us and send us weak waves.


The last "perfect" hurricane season was 2010. Since then its been one issue or another.
Quoting 672. CarlitosAtun:





I reported this comment for being hilarious.
Remembering:

9 years ago, on his date, BIG "K" was closing in on the north central Gulf Coast. We knew it was going be a bad one .... but, WOW!

It turned out to be a lot worse than many expected ..... the fact that it weakened before landfall ... possibly made some residents think it was not going to be as bad as it was ..... but it was ..... catastrophic.
Quoting SLU:


The last "perfect" hurricane season was 2010. Since then its been one issue or another.

I was thinking 2008

But more so the last perfect season was the last time we had a Cat 5 which was 2007
His comment was removed. Wuk
Quoting 621. allancalderini:

I can bet you that if conditions next year are more favorable mother nature is going to troll us and send us weak waves.


Conditions are bound to be more favourable than not at some point, this established pattern for the past few years will eventually erode and lead to another shift, everything takes time I guess.
Quoting 676. MonsterTrough:


I reported this comment for being hilarious.


My sincere apologies to everyone except the intended recipient. Apparently my comment was egregious enough to merit a 30 second ban.
If the LLC can locate under the heavy convection we can get something going possibly. It appears according to vort map that the strongest vort is SE of brownsville
Quoting 676. MonsterTrough:


I reported this comment for being hilarious.
CarlitosAtun that s awesome.
Interesting to see 98L blow up, but then systems in that general area do that quite often. Will be interesting to see if it gets designated as a TD or maybe even TS Dolly.

Cristobal looks really good today:



Ex97L has a pretty good vorticy at the 850 mb level. It's currently under moderate-high shear, but it'll be interesting to see how it does as it crosses the Caribbean. Lastly, there's some vorticy associated with the front that's entering the BOC, something to watch in the coming days.


Quoting 650. RGVtropicalWx13:


Are you sure? Cause I have a west wind here in Brownsville


NWS observations show NW winds currently in your location but buoy data just off shore reporting west winds. Probably the effect of boundary layer friction giving NW winds over land. The mid level circ is breaking off to the south. Surface wave still to your NE traversing to the SW slowly.
98L may be able to tap into all that moisture heading its way as well.
next.threat=75w15n
Quoting 675. SLU:



The last "perfect" hurricane season was 2010. Since then its been one issue or another.
don't use perfect, use right. since we have been in an active AMO, el nino years tend to be inactive and by inactive i mean high shear, but we still go major hurricanes. neutral years were active and so were la ninas. since 2011, we have been in a big "dud". Stable air. that's the problem. must find a way to get rid of it
Quoting 684. Envoirment:

Interesting to see 98L blow up, but then systems in that general area do that quite often. Will be interesting to see if it gets designated as a TD or maybe even TS Dolly.

Cristobal looks really good today:



Ex97L has a pretty good vorticy at the 850 mb level. It's currently under moderate-high shear, but it'll be interesting to see how it does as it crosses the Caribbean. Lastly, there's some vorticy associated with the front that's entering the BOC, something to watch in the coming days.



You really like s Cristobal,but sorry man nobody else here mentioned it today.

This is getting close to being a depression, if it's not one already.  If this holds together through most of the day, it certainly has a shot. 
Quoting Envoirment:
Interesting to see 98L blow up, but then systems in that general area do that quite often. Will be interesting to see if it gets designated as a TD or maybe even TS Dolly.

Cristobal looks really good today:



Ex97L has a pretty good vorticy at the 850 mb level. It's currently under moderate-high shear, but it'll be interesting to see how it does as it crosses the Caribbean. Lastly, there's some vorticy associated with the front that's entering the BOC, something to watch in the coming days.



Well it's only really the N part for former 97L
Once it passes 70W and Westward it's into the lower shear
Quoting 691. LargoFl:


Looks good,but too close to land.Maybe no time for TD or Dolly.
I see some of the inmates have taken over the asylum this morning.
Quoting 616. kim55:

The United States will never have a major hurricane hit it again because of the weather manipulation from the us government .When will the American public be told the truth about this .In the short run it might save lives and property in the long run it will be a disaster because everytime man tries to manipulate nature ( Mississippi River ,Everglades. ) it is a disaster !
Thank god, someone finally figured it out! (snark mode: OFF)
Quoting 694. ILwthrfan:


This is getting close to being a depression, if it's not one already.  If this holds together through most of the day, it certainly has a shot. 
its up to the national hurricane center if this is T.D the number going up % but only 10% so no T.D
Quoting 615. scottc42:




In 2004, after Hurricane Charley, one Florida citrus grower almost lost hundreds of millions of dollars in stored, frozen concentrated orange juice due to power loss.

Probably my neighbor, he has grown oranges for Tropicana for decades. I was amazed how tough oranges trees are against the wind. The trees along the edges were heavily damaged, but some actually survived the 165 mph gusts.
Quoting hurricanes2018:
its up to the national hurricane center if this is T.D the number going up % but only 10% so no T.D

NHC could change that from 10% to 90% or 100% easy
Quoting 702. wunderkidcayman:


NHC could change that from 10% to 90% or 100% easy
maybe at 2pm its will go up
706. beell
Detectable spin on the wave axis in the Caribbean at 15N, 77W


Quoting 701. hydrus:

Probably my neighbor, he has grown oranges for Tropicana for decades. I was amazed how tough oranges trees are against the wind. The trees along the edges were heavily damaged, but some actually survived the 165 mph gusts.
I have to say..never experienced 165 mph wind gusts..gee dont want to either..
shortly you see the vorticity increase over the new tropical wave 15n76w this area will have to be watched closely as it approaches the s yucatan this is the time of yr suspect areas can quickly turn into a cyclone
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
735 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

TXC167-281430-
/O.NEW.KHGX.FA.Y.0094.140828T1235Z-140828T1430Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
GALVESTON TX-
735 AM CDT THU AUG 28 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHERN GALVESTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

* UNTIL 930 AM CDT

* AT 729 AM CDT...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCING 1 TO 3 INCHES OF RAIN THAT IS LIKELY TO
CAUSE PONDING OF WATER AND SOME MINOR FLOODING ON GALVESTON
ISLAND.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT COULD EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE...GALVESTON
ISLAND EAST END...GALVESTON PIER 21...THE STRAND...AND PELICAN
ISLAND.
Quoting 707. LargoFl:
I have to say..never experienced 165 mph wind gusts..gee dont want to either..
We had 200+ mph gusts in Cayman with Ivan and although not all the trees were down a large amount were and no foilage left on any trees.
TTBT,

Tropical Throw back Thursday.

look for 15n76w to be 99 this afternoon
3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Friday. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual
development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the eastern Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown

8.27.2014 Hurricane Marie created epic breakers off the Pacific Coast. More specifically, at the wedge of Newport Beach with waves towering over 20 feet. Body boarders, surfers, and body surfing became a scene as thousands of spectators lined the beach.
Link
716. FOREX
Quoting 706. beell:

Detectable spin on the wave axis in the Caribbean at 15N, 77W



it is moving due west and should run right into central America and dissipate.
If 98L starts to deepen, any takes on what roll the front will play?
something else going on sourth east of invest 98L
719. FOREX
Quoting 713. islander101010:

look for 15n76w to be 99 this afternoon
nah.
looks like 98 may get swept up into the front thats moving eastward across the midwest once ashore........
Looks like 98L is fixing to have plenty of moisture to work with
Quoting 711. stormwatcherCI:
We had 200+ mph gusts in Cayman with Ivan and although not all the trees were down a large amount were and no foilage left on any trees.


We have the big 10 year anniversary coming up in a couple of weeks.No doubt it will jog a lot of peoples memories of those days?Seems so long ago,for some reason
A great storm came ashore here in Savannah last night about 7:30 pm.Did you get the big wind & rain out east? Hope all is well......
723. SLU
Quoting 678. wunderkidcayman:


I was thinking 2008

But more so the last perfect season was the last time we had a Cat 5 which was 2007


2007 was more of an all-or-nothing season. Two cat 5's and pretty much nothing else of note with a series of weak hurricanes and the overall ACE was only 72.

2008 (ACE 144) was a much more fluent season with lots of attractive storms to track and 2010 (ACE 165) i'd say, although it was a late boomer, it was the last really spectacular season we've seen.







12Z intensity models might be getting new data,starting to move upward somewhat...........................
98L is probably a lopsided sheared depression now. No aircraft means no upgrade, and really, tropical storm warnings issued for a 30 knot system that might landfall at 35 knots is NBD. Stronger winds in the sea breeze thunderstorms that sometimes hit the coast, and I'm sure NWS CRP and LCH will issue special marine warnings as needed.

Post-season reanalysis, maybe they'll bother to upgrade this to a TD, or maybe even a 35 knot un-named tropical storm.

Quoting 724. LargoFl:

12Z intensity models might be getting new data,starting to move upward somewhat...........................


Ot it might be a 35 knot storm by the time it makes landfall...
I don't think so forex, you mention that the 00z gfs run had nothing which was incorrect. It had the Gom system , don't just look at the Atlantic itself look in the Gom. Btw an invest is likely pretty soon.
Quoting 725. EdMahmoud:

98L is probably a lopsided sheared depression now. No aircraft means no upgrade, and really, tropical storm warnings issued for a 30 knot system that might landfall at 35 knots is NBD. Stronger winds in the sea breeze thunderstorms that sometimes hit the coast, and I'm sure NWS CRP and LCH will issue special marine warnings as needed.

Post-season reanalysis, maybe they'll bother to upgrade this to a TD, or maybe even a 35 knot un-named tropical storm.


yes wind wise i doubt 98 will be a big deal but flooding rains may be the issue with this storm..already a few warning up in south texas.
Finally an upward trend in instability in the Tropical Atlantic. Still below normal currently but not nearly as much as the past several months. Looks to be heading up again currently.

I thought there was supposed to be an El Nino this year, lol?

Tomorrow's recon mentions no short notice tasking for 98L today, it will never be 05L, even if it seems to fit all the criteria. Except maybe wind, I see nothing over 20 knots on NDBC buoy page or SPC mesoanalysis...
El Nino is a scam,

: P
TTBT

Tropical Throw Back Thursday

Quoting 726. EdMahmoud:



Ot it might be a 35 knot storm by the time it makes landfall...
Ex 97L may end up in the same area.



Quoting 724. LargoFl:

12Z intensity models might be getting new data,starting to move upward somewhat...........................


Things are getting interesting with this low for sure.
LCH? It's BRO.
I dooos believe LCH is Lake Charles.
98L about to tap into a large moisture field. if shear would relax just a bit
ex-97 is dead it will be 99`` already banding can anyone post of close in loop of to be 99.?
Quoting beell:
Detectable spin on the wave axis in the Caribbean at 15N, 77W



No that spin a upper level in association with a upper trof weakening and moving out

Quoting islander101010:
shortly you see the vorticity increase over the new tropical wave 15n76w this area will have to be watched closely as it approaches the s yucatan this is the time of yr suspect areas can quickly turn into a cyclone


Nah this is not the wave your looking for

Quoting islander101010:
look for 15n76w to be 99 this afternoon

No

Quoting superpete:


We have the big 10 year anniversary coming up in a couple of weeks.No doubt it will jog a lot of peoples memories of those days?Seems so long ago,for some reason
A great storm came ashore here in Savannah last night about 7:30 pm.Did you get the big wind & rain out east? Hope all is well......

Ivan Cayman Annaversary is 14 days away or 2 weeks

Last night was sorta freaky kinda though we had a TD passing over in West Bay and and along 7 mile

Quoting 732. Patrap:

El Nino is a scam,

: P


You're a scam!
Quoting 722. superpete:


We have the big 10 year anniversary coming up in a couple of weeks.No doubt it will jog a lot of peoples memories of those days?Seems so long ago,for some reason
A great storm came ashore here in Savannah last night about 7:30 pm.Did you get the big wind & rain out east? Hope all is well......
We did have the strong winds last night :) Cayman Chillin" showed 44 mph. Light rain .
Quoting 579. Pallis1:

Orange growers are afraid of long freezes and none of the other things he mentions. Sounds like he is reading from someone else's script, and they work for the insurance lobby.


High winds are a serious threat to Citrus and tropical cyclones do severe damage to the FL crop some years. Surge isn't much of an issue since groves are inland. Very heavy rain over a long period can saturate the soil and drown the roots but the timescale for this is several days, one 18" burst from a TC won't do it because it will drain off before roots are killed. Groves that don't drain won't survive a normal FL summer. Drought can be a problem late fall through late spring.

Freezes are an especially big problem in FL because AVERAGE winter temperatures are high and trees often don't go fully dormant. Dormant Citrus will survive deeper freezes for longer. California citrus experiences lower mean temperatures, uisually does go dormant, and is less vulnerable to freezes. California also does not get the intense arctic outbreaks with wind that FL does.

2014 Atlantic hurricane season.......

http://youtu.be/1ytCEuuW2_A
Quoting 707. LargoFl:
I have to say..never experienced 165 mph wind gusts..gee dont want to either..


Perhaps on a very hot day, Largo lol.
Ed, CRP & LCH arent next to each other. You meant CRP & BRO


Hey Pat,

..Yes,


Did you notice the one Hot Tower blossom?
Quoting LargoFl:

Lol 44hrs a 999mb

Quoting islander101010:
ex-97 is dead it will be 99``

No SOP is that if a former Invest redevelop enough for redesignation without the assistance of another entity it would remain as it's former title
In thin case 97L will become 97L

Now as this is SOP or Standard Operating Procedures this is what usually happens but still it boils down to the NHC meteorologist that will write the best track data if he feels that some other entity has merged with it then it would be tagged 99L
750. beell
Quoting 717. SomeRandomTexan:

If 98L starts to deepen, any takes on what roll the front will play?


WPC 24, 48, 60-HR Forecast of Fronts/Pressure/Weather
click to enlarge


Coming to you live from Corpus Christi Texas this morning. No precipitation, a few scattered low level clouds and some high clouds with plenty of blue sky. On shoreline drive it is a pleasant 85 degrees with light winds fluctuating form the NE and E. Pretty good rainmakers can be seen offshore. Would everyone east of us collectively exhale so that we can get some moisture PLEASE! Looks like this stuff is going to stay offshore and miss us....
Quoting 720. LargoFl:

looks like 98 may get swept up into the front thats moving eastward across the midwest once ashore........


Yes that is a growing possibility in my opinion. Looks like Central and SE Texas may be getting some very heavy rain over the next few days.

Here

Quoting islander101010:
ex-97 is dead it will be 99`` already banding can anyone post of close in loop of to be 99.?

Former 97L located near 14/15N 66/67W

INVEST 98L looking better this morning lets see the % will go up at 2pm
Quoting Patrap:

Here

Looks like this will be Dolly. :) I wish recon was out there.
The front is already pushing into Texas from the West!

Just be patient want2lrn. The rain will happen in your location.
760. SLU
What a bust for the false-alarm GFS. smh.

i hope invest 97L COME back soon!!
Quoting 760. SLU:

What a bust for the false-alarm GFS. smh.


notting there at all
Quoting 758. 69Viking:

The front is already pushing into Texas from the West!




Dad-um, dad-um,

With the trough digging down as it is doing, how crazy would it be if AL98 was pulled northward and rode the coastline of Texas as a tropical storm.

Morning all. Keeping an eye on 98, but not for my sake. More of an out of boredom thing. Best it's looked I'd say. Running out of time however. Noticed all the comments that were removed. I just think the internet is the most pathetic way to argue and belittle people. I didn't read the comments, but they were removed, so... Keep on keepin' on I guess. The respectable ones don't respect you and only laugh. Just my three cents.



Tstms fading a bit, but firing close to center. Who knows. At least it'll be "some" rain for TX. I say that slightly and not with a ton of optimism. I'm watching the rain evaporate after moving ashore cept for the immediate coastline.
the GFS likes to tell you we are going to have a cat 2 hurricane a few days aho i know that will never happern because of the dry air and no MJO in the Central Atlantic
Quoting 714. LargoFl:

3. A tropical wave is forecast to move off the west coast of Africa on
Friday. Environmental conditions could be conducive for some gradual
development of this system while it moves westward at 10 to 15 mph
across the eastern Atlantic early next week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...30 percent.

Forecaster Brown


What wave? I just looked at a close up satt view of West Africa. There was a big wave there yesterday, but now there's nothing! In the last few frames it just went puff!
Quoting 722. superpete:



We have the big 10 year anniversary coming up in a couple of weeks.No doubt it will jog a lot of peoples memories of those days?Seems so long ago,for some reason
/blockquote>

Whilst I was not on Grand Cayman for Ivan (was on Brac), I was monitoring throughout as best as possible and advising certain clients by whatever means I could. I was over very quickly after to commence Recovery for one large Cayman Company. images are still crystal clear in my mind. Most vivid are probably the early morning vistas down at end of Sparky Drive towards North Sound - pools of water and skeletons of trees - evocative of those barren wasteland pictures one can see from 1st World War Trenches landscapes - can also recollect getting lost one time trying to find Frank Sound Road - all landmarks gone or changed!
Hopefully NEVER again!
Quoting 751. want2lrn:
Coming to you live from Corpus Christi Texas this morning. No precipitation, a few scattered low level clouds and some high clouds with plenty of blue sky. On shoreline drive it is a pleasant 85 degrees with light winds fluctuating form the NE and E. Pretty good rainmakers can be seen offshore. Would everyone east of us collectively exhale so that we can get some moisture PLEASE! Looks like this stuff is going to stay offshore and miss us....


Had a brief downpour overnight in the Houston Clear Lake area; not enough to make a difference. Rain deficit about 17" YTD in my area.
Some one showed the 2008 storms in a post a few minutes ago. The interesting storm here that year in SW LA was Humberto It went from an open wave to a hurricane in record time . I'm thinking a little less than 24 hours and it moved NNE along the Texas coastline. I stayed up all night watching it. When my wife woke up that morning the trees were whipping in the wind. She looked at me and said it looks like a hurricane going on out there. I told her yes you are correct. She was very confused. Those storms in that part of the gulf can go through RI and surprise you.
Quoting 747. RGVtropicalWx13:

Ed, CRP & LCH arent next to each other. You meant CRP & BRO


Indeed. HGX separates the two.
Quoting 771. audreyritalillyLa44:

Some one showed the 2008 storms in a post a few minutes ago. The interesting storm here that year in SW LA was Humberto It went from an open wave to a hurricane in record time . I'm thinking a little less than 24 hours and it moved NNE along the Texas coastline. I stayed up all night watching it. When my wife woke up that morning the trees were whipping in the wind. She looked at me and said it looks like a hurricane going on out there. I told her yes you are correct. She was very confused. Those storms in that part of the gulf can go through RI and surprise you.


Humberto was 2007, bro. Ike affected southwest Louisiana in 2008. Trailed Gustav.
Quoting 754. Patrap:


Here


Uncle Sam is probably moving in FEMA trucks filled with umbrella's and rain panchos for all the folks 'treking' up from the south :P
Quoting 736. RGVtropicalWx13:

LCH? It's BRO.



Oooops.
NHC should be invest for trolling.
Quoting 751. want2lrn:

Coming to you live from Corpus Christi Texas this morning. No precipitation, a few scattered low level clouds and some high clouds with plenty of blue sky. On shoreline drive it is a pleasant 85 degrees with light winds fluctuating form the NE and E. Pretty good rainmakers can be seen offshore. Would everyone east of us collectively exhale so that we can get some moisture PLEASE! Looks like this stuff is going to stay offshore and miss us....

I see clouds but no water coming out of them! My plants are even praying for rain.
Quoting LargoFl:
looks like 98 may get swept up into the front thats moving eastward across the midwest once ashore........
The more likely explanation when one model is showing what no other model shows is that one model is nuts.
Wind shear has been average to below average this month, but it looks to increase once again as a convectively-supressed kelvin wave moves across the Atlantic (the western portion of these waves enhances the TUTT).

Couple that with upper-level convergence in accordance with the wave itself and the MJO returning to the Pacific, and this might be one of the quietest Septembers on record, IMO.

Quoting 765. DavidHOUTX:

With the trough digging down as it is doing, how crazy would it be if AL98 was pulled northward and rode the coastline of Texas as a tropical storm.




Well, that would be reminiscent of Alicia. Ugh. Anyway, I think 98 is still cruising west, in spite of the other fronts.

But in the good news department - the banding is creating nice rain and cool temps here on Galveston - and apparently the rain will stick around for a few days!
Quoting 778. sar2401:

The more likely explanation when one model is showing what no other model shows is that one model is nuts.


Not necessarily. The trough is hauling across the lower 48. It is already in West Texas
Filtering out (mentally) the bend in the streamlines and slightly stronger winds caused by 98L, it should drift West between 5 and 10 knots.



Unless the center chases the convection and reforms, possible because the center doesn't seem all that strong, this is inland by late tonight. NHC would have at least paid lip service with an invest flight (that they could cancel at 13Z, tasked invests are cancelled all the time) if they thought there was any chance it might still be over water. New NAM suggests about 10 pm local tonight.
783. wxmod
Arctic Ice cap, or lack thereof. North Pole is in the lower left. Melting fast right now from wave action and ocean temp. MODIS satellite photo today.

Hopefully, Dr. Master's might be doing a Blog over the next few days on the prognosis for September.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Not necessarily. The trough is hauling across the lower 48. It is already in West Texas


We "should" see the LLC slowly drift inland over the next 12-24 hours. The LLC is already up against the coast with the strongest convection pushed off to the east of the center.
But I think the coastal area of Texas should see some decent rains from the system all the way up the coast. A lot of the heavy rain off shore of Corpus and Galveston will hopefully move inland.
Quoting 777. cctxshirl:


I see clouds but no water coming out of them! My plants are even praying for rain.
I see clouds in west Africa.Maybe the Sahel is wet.
Quoting 613. KoritheMan:



You don't have unlimited texting? wtf mang


Why would I have that? Then my parents would have to pay more money for something I won't use. The more important plan would be unlimited data, but I suspect those plans will cease to exist soon.

Quoting 612. georgevandenberghe:



He had a girlfriend who lived 40 miles away that spring. Hasn't happened again but all of my kids often communicate with peers with short texts rather than single sentences of speech even when within speaking radius


I guess my thing is that I've only had a phone for 1 month now. Just 1 phone. Before that, nothing. So, to me, I only use it if I want to talk to someone and I know they'll answer via phone, or to call my parents back home.

Of course, if my habits began to grow to something ridiculous like 17K, I'd lose my phone or be forced to pay for it myself. And since right now I'm studying in college (and in my opinion out of the workforce), I have no good source of income. Yea, poor college student, lol.

----

On topic: Beautiful weather, balmy temps of 80+ with upper 80s expected for the Labor Day Weekend. All of the in-state students think it's too warm, lol, I could use another 10 degrees and be fine with it. Especially since the humidity has also been low.

Quoting 785. Sfloridacat5:



We "should" see the LLC slowly drift inland over the next 12-24 hours. The LLC is already up against the coast with the strongest convection pushed off to the east of the center.
But I think the coastal area of Texas should see some decent rains from the system all the way up the coast. A lot of the heavy rain off shore of Corpus and Galveston will hopefully move inland.



Yes I agree, but the center sure is taking it's sweet time! It was supposed to be ashore already. I am just hoping this trough coming down sucks all the moisture into Texas, which it appears (as of now) it will do.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Not necessarily. The trough is hauling across the lower 48. It is already in West Texas
So you think the LBAR might be right, carrying a low that's having trouble making it to shore, will somehow be carried all the way up into Canada, ending in Maine, in five days?
invest 98L WILL BE ON LAND SOON!!
12Z NAM in 12 hour has LLC of 98L well inland over S. Texas/N. Mexico.
What's the probability of the trough moving in from the west picking up 98L and moving it north along the Texas coast and possibly developing?
793. 7544
Quoting 758. 69Viking:

The front is already pushing into Texas from the West!




maybe that front will catch it and it heads east ?
Quoting 723. SLU:



2007 was more of an all-or-nothing season. Two cat 5's and pretty much nothing else of note with a series of weak hurricanes and the overall ACE was only 72.

2008 (ACE 144) was a much more fluent season with lots of attractive storms to track and 2010 (ACE 165) i'd say, although it was a late boomer, it was the last really spectacular season we've seen.











2007 was noteworthy because we finally got a "N" storm ... "NOEL" retired.
12z NAM at 84 hours - next wave crossing the Yucatan headed for the Southern GOM/BOC. I believe this system has a better chance of developing than 98L (which should be done with today).

Quoting 792. BigTy69Nola:

What's the probability of the trough moving in from the west picking up 98L and moving it north along the Texas coast and possibly developing?


depends on how long it hangs out stationary. according to models.. not very likely. Looking at an 8 hour loop of radar it looks like it drifted 20 miles or so to the east. So that could prolong. I think it would have to stay there for another day.
already seeing signs of an inverted trough setting up just s. of jamaica vis.loop
00Z,ECMWF +72 (Pouch Model)

Quoting 779. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wind shear has been average to below average this month, but it looks to increase once again as a convectively-supressed kelvin wave moves across the Atlantic (the western portion of these waves enhances the TUTT).

Couple that with upper-level convergence in accordance with the wave itself and the MJO returning to the Pacific, and this might be one of the quietest Septembers on record, IMO.




Average storms for September is 3.5. I think we'll get 3 storms in September. Models are showing that mainly the Central/Eastern Atlantic will be under the downward phase of the MJO and that the Western Atlantic/Caribbean/Gulf Of Mexico will be generally neutral-weakly positive. With the very warm waters of the Gulf Of Mexico/Western Caribbean, I wouldn't be surprised if we see a couple systems spin up from fronts, especially near the end of the month where models are hinting at an upward phase of the MJO returning to the basin.

I do hope that the Atlantic is quiet from the 8th-15th though, as I'll be away and don't want to miss any action. :p
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:


depends on how long it hangs out stationary. according to models.. not very likely. Looking at an 8 hour loop of radar it looks like it drifted 20 miles or so to the east. So that could prolong. I think it would have to stay there for another day.


The LLC hasn't drifted to the east. You're following the convection that has drifted to the east. That is not the LLC.
As the light in coming up we should be able to see some nice visible satellite loops that will show the western part of the LLC already making contact with the Texas coastline near Brownsville.
The strong convection is removed from the LLC.
Quoting BigTy69Nola:
What's the probability of the trough moving in from the west picking up 98L and moving it north along the Texas coast and possibly developing?
Pretty slim. This is the kind of thing the NHC considers when it looks a lows like 98L and makes forecasts. The low (not the convection) is continuing to move slowly WSW, and that should continue until it's onshore by this time tonight. If there was any realistic possibility it wouldn't do so, the NHC would at least mention it in their discussion.

A more interesting scenario is that a low from a piece of Ex97L will likely move into the western Caribbean and then into the BOC by Sunday. This low, which will probably be 99L by then, is forecast to bump along the shore of the BOC and south Texas. This will enhance the moisture field that will still be present off the coast. None of the models develop this one either but, with another front coming out of the Plains next week, anything near the Gulf coast this time of year has possibilities.
803. SLU
Three days ago I made the remark that the new wave won't develop rapidly and move OTS but instead it would develop around 40 west and get trapped under the weak ridge like Bertha and Cristobal and the GFS is finally coming back to reality.

Ole Cristobol putting on a little show presently. Still looks completely tropical.


Quoting 787. Astrometeor:



Why would I have that? Then my parents would have to pay more money for something I won't use. The more important plan would be unlimited data, but I suspect those plans will cease to exist soon.



I guess my thing is that I've only had a phone for 1 month now. Just 1 phone. Before that, nothing. So, to me, I only use it if I want to talk to someone and I know they'll answer via phone, or to call my parents back home.

Of course, if my habits began to grow to something ridiculous like 17K, I'd lose my phone or be forced to pay for it myself. And since right now I'm studying in college (and in my opinion out of the workforce), I have no good source of income. Yea, poor college student, lol.

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On topic: Beautiful weather, balmy temps of 80+ with upper 80s expected for the Labor Day Weekend. All of the in-state students think it's too warm, lol, I could use another 10 degrees and be fine with it. Especially since the humidity has also been low.


Humidity will increase some this weekend and next week but still overall I'd call this pleasant. The two Septembers I was at PSU, the first two weeks of September were very nice, warm and sunny.

August has been unusually cool in the mid Atlantic. I'm REALLY enjoying it!!

Unlimited texting plans are financially very cheap now but the TIME to text is a significant life cost best avoided.

I was pushed into cellphones in the first place because pay phones have disappeared from the DC metro suburbs. I am not happy with this development. I'll generally upgade for kids when there is 80% market penetration in their peer group IF I don't see it as malevolent and to be resisted.
Quoting 741. Patrap:


Damn thatsa a big thunderstorm.