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Cristobal Headed Towards Iceland; 98L Moving Inland Over Texas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:38 PM GMT on August 28, 2014

Hurricane Cristobal continues to churn northeastwards over the Atlantic towards Iceland. Satellite loops show that Cristobal has its most impressive appearance of its lifetime, with a large symmetric area of heavy thunderstorms. Cristobal will merge with a frontal zone on Friday and transition to a powerful extratropical storm that will likely bring tropical storm-force winds and heavy rain to Iceland on Sunday night. The GOES-14 satellite is in rapid-scan mode over Cristobal on Thursday, and you can access an impressive 1-minute resolution satellite loop of the storm from the NOAA/RAMMB website.


Figure 1. MODIS true-color image showing Hurricane Cristobal's off the coast of North Carolina at 2 pm EDT on August 27, 2014. At the time, Cristobal had top winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Gulf of Mexico's 98L moving inland over Texas
A weak area of low pressure (Invest 98L) was centered near the coast at the Texas/Mexico border on Thursday morning. Satellite loops and images from the Brownsville, Texas radar showed the low was generating a few areas of heavy thunderstorms that were slowly growing more organized. Wind shear was a moderate 10 - 20 knots and ocean temperature were a very warm 29°C, which favor development, but 98L should move inland over South Texas on Thursday afternoon, before development into a tropical depression can occur. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 98L 2-day and 5-day development odds of 10%.

Caribbean disturbance 97L headed towards Mexico
In the Eastern Caribbean, a tropical wave (designated as 97L by NHC earlier this week) is generating disorganized heavy thunderstorms as it heads west to west-northwest. Wind shear was a prohibitively high 20 - 40 knots on Thursday, and will remain high through Saturday. On Sunday, when the wave will be in the Western Caribbean, shear will fall, but the wave will likely not have enough time to develop before crossing Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula. The wave is expected to emerge in the Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche on Monday, and development odds will be higher then. Two of our three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation show some weak development in the Bay of Campeche on Tuesday. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 20%, respectively.

New tropical wave coming off coast of Africa this weekend
A large and powerful tropical wave will move off the coast of Africa on Friday evening, and will move near or over the Cape Verde Islands on Saturday as the storm moves west at 10 - 15 mph. None of the three reliable computer models for predicting tropical storm formation predict the wave will develop over the next five days, but wind shear will be low enough and ocean temperatures warm enough to allow some slow development. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the system 2-day and 5-day development odds of 0% and 30%, respectively.


Figure 2. MODIS true-color image of Hurricane Marie in the Eastern Pacific taken at 19:05 UTC (3:05 pm EDT) on August 26, 2014. At the time, Marie was a Category 2 storm with 100 mph winds. The swirl at the lower left of Marie is the remnant of Tropical Storm Karina, which was destroyed by Marie's strong upper-level outflow winds. A must-see video of the high shear from Marie literally ripping Karina apart is posted at the GOES CIMSS Satellite blog. Image credit: NASA.

Tropical Storm Marie still generating huge waves in Eastern Pacific
The Eastern Pacific's Hurricane Marie was downgraded to a tropical storm on Wednesday, had top sustained winds of just 45 mph at 11 am EDT on Thursday, but was still generating huge swells that will pound the coast of Southern California and Mexico's Baja Peninsula through Friday. A High Surf Advisory is in effect for Los Angeles, where maximum waves of 10 - 15 feet with a few sets up to 20 feet high will potentially cause structural damage to piers and beachside property as well as significant beach erosion. The powerful surf will be accompanied by strong rip currents and long-shore currents, making for very hazardous swimming and surfing conditions through Friday. According to the NWS Los Angeles, Marie's high surf event is the most significant southerly swell (swell only) event in Southern California since July 25, 1996. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed Marie was basically a swirl of low clouds with no heavy thunderstorms. The storm is over waters cooler than 22°C (72°F) and will steadily degenerate into a remnant low by Friday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Infact last Thursday my heat index was 123. Hottest I've ever seen it here.
Christobal has an ACE of 7.085, most for a storm so far this year. Season total 19.1825
Thanks for posting the 11PM update on Cristobal, Donnie.
This really has been an odd "rainy" season in south Florida. Infrequent and sporadic rains, and more west and north winds which are typically nearly non-existent in summer months but not this year. The 2004 and 2005 storm seasons IIRC had rainier and moister(humidity) late springs and early summers. Could be wrong on that, and if so one of the data junkies here will rightly correct me.

Quoting sar2401:
This has been a remarkable year for the combination of dry air and shear. It's not just SAL, although that makes a contribution. It's dry air at all levels of the atmosphere that is really killing our storms. As Jed has said many times, dry air in the tropics can still appear pretty moist, but the dewpoint depression doesn't have to be large, just large enough to upset the balance of the storm. It's hard to see anything bigger than a cat 2 this year unless something changes in the next month or so.
Quoting 505. LightningCharmer:
This really has been an odd "rainy" season in south Florida. Infrequent and sporadic rains, and more west and north winds which are typically nearly non-existent in summer months but not this year. The 2004 and 2005 storm seasons IIRC had rainier and moister(humidity) late springs and early summers. Could be wrong on that, and if so one of the data junkies here will rightly correct me.



The flow pattern across FL with all the rain favoring the eastern side of the state is consistant with El-nino. The atmosphere has been in some sort of El-nino state since Spring now we just need to get it officially declared.

Good old CrystalBall up to 85 mph, giving it the old college try for cat 2. Not going to make it, unfortunately, but it will go down as the second strongest hurricane of the season after Arthur. He started off bad but he's finishing with a flourish.

HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014

Remarkably, Cristobal still has a well-organized appearance on
satellite imagery with a central dense overcast and some banding
features. The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt in
agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The
hurricane will soon encounter much cooler waters, which would cause
significant weakening as a tropical cyclone. However, it is
expected that the cyclone will be able to maintain at least some of
its strength due to baroclinic forcing. Post-tropical Cristobal
will likely remain a powerful, albeit extratropical, cyclone over
the north Atlantic through Saturday. Beyond that time, the system
is forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland and
lose its identity.

The hurricane has continued to accelerate, and the motion is now
near 065/40 kt as Cristobal moves within the mid-latitude
westerlies. Dynamical track guidance indicates a slight turn toward
the northeast as the tropical or post-tropical cyclone interacts
with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or two. The
official track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and
ECMWF model solutions.

The wind radii were adjusted based on data from a recent ASCAT
overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 40.2N 56.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 43.1N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 30/0000Z 47.5N 42.0W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 30/1200Z 51.5N 34.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/0000Z 56.5N 27.5W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
72H 01/0000Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER CYCLONE

TROPICAL STORM MARIE DISCUSSION NUMBER 29
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP132014
800 PM PDT THU AUG 28 2014

Marie has only been producing patchy shallow convection for the past
12 hours or so, and the daily real-time global SST analysis shows
that the center is approaching water as cold as 21C. Since deep
convection should not redevelop in this environment, Marie is
expected to become post-tropical overnight--if it isn't already. In
the meantime, maximum winds are assumed to still be around 35 kt
based on an earlier ASCAT pass. The large circulation will take
some time to spin down, and a gradually weakening remnant low is
forecast through the 5-day period.

The initial motion remains 310/14 kt, with Marie moving along the
western edge of a low- to mid-level ridge located near the coast of
California and the Baja California peninsula. Marie will slow down
during the next day or so as it moves away from the ridge. Then,
the low-level flow will steer the remnant low west-northwestward
and eventually west-southwestward by the end of the period. The
NHC track is very similar to the previous one and close to the TVCE
model consensus.

Large southerly swells affecting much of the west coast of the Baja
California peninsula and the coast of southern California will
gradually subside through Friday. These swells could still produce
life-threatening surf and rip currents, as well as minor coastal
flooding around the time of high tide.

goodbye Marie
Quoting 443. StormJunkie:



Auburn was not the best SEC team. No questions asked. And they "lost" that game as opposed to FSU winning it.

On topic...



I gotta know
Who was the best SEC team.
Hurricane Marie had. Me wondering if climate change could cause hurricanes to start affecting the state of California more hmmm.....
HURRICANE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 22
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 PM AST THU AUG 28 2014

Remarkably, Cristobal still has a well-organized appearance on
satellite imagery with a central dense overcast and some banding
features. The current intensity estimate is increased to 75 kt in
agreement with Dvorak estimates from TAFB and SAB. The
hurricane will soon encounter much cooler waters, which would cause
significant weakening as a tropical cyclone. However, it is
expected that the cyclone will be able to maintain at least some of
its strength due to baroclinic forcing. Post-tropical Cristobal
will likely remain a powerful, albeit extratropical, cyclone over
the north Atlantic through Saturday. Beyond that time, the system
is forecast to merge with another low near southern Greenland and
lose its identity.

The hurricane has continued to accelerate, and the motion is now
near 065/40 kt as Cristobal moves within the mid-latitude
westerlies. Dynamical track guidance indicates a slight turn toward
the northeast as the tropical or post-tropical cyclone interacts
with the low near southern Greenland in the next day or two. The
official track forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and
ECMWF model solutions.

The wind radii were adjusted based on data from a recent ASCAT
overpass.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/0300Z 40.2N 56.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
12H 29/1200Z 43.1N 49.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
the winds went up to 85 mph!!



El-Nino still going strong next Spring and probably will next summer too.

Quoting 421. sar2401:

NHC hasn't activated it. They will once they know they have a low, which they don't now.


Thank you
Quoting nigel20:


Tropical activity may remain surpressed across the eastern tropical Atlantic, but Caribbean, tropical systems are relatively prevalent in the month of October.

Let's see what pans out in the coming months.
The Caribbean and Maybe the Gulf are probably our only hope this year. I'm waiting to get any kind of tropical system in the Gulf that might bring rain to Alabama. The Gulf has been as inactive as I've ever seen it. No tropical waves, no thunderstorms, no nothing. After our extremely wet spring, I was hopeful we'd finally have a normal rain year. Unfortunately, we have once again flopped over into drought.
Quoting Pallis1:
Exactly. It only gets ugly when someone starts talking about European soccar, or whatever they call it in China. Weather is not boring. Something is happening right now South of Hispaniola! You just have not properly learned how to cognisize weather related phenonema. No one is going to beat FSU at football for quite a spell, so that conversation is in the compost bin, anyways.


Associated football is a popular pass time in Caribbean. European leagues are very popular, especially the English premier league and the UEFA champions league. :)

In terms of the Caribbean, there has been a discernible improvement in rainfall totals. The atmosphere was stable for the period June-July, with dry air subsidence encompassing much of the Caribbean basin.
Quoting 494. StormTrackerScott:

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
1000 PM EDT THU AUG 28 2014

.DISCUSSION...

.UPDATE...LOW LVL SOUTHERLY FLOW AROUND THE ATLC RIDGE IS ADVECTING
DEEPER MOISTURE NORTHWARD FROM THE LAKE OKEECHOBEE REGION THIS
EVENING. SHORT RANGE MODELS HINT THAT CONVECTION WILL MOVE SLOWLY
NORTHWARD THROUGH AROUND MIDNIGHT INTO OSCEOLA AND SRN BREVARD
COUNTIES. OVERALL THERE SHOULD BE A DIMINISHING TREND...THOUGH WILL
NEED TO HOLD ON TO RAIN CHANCES A BIT LONGER THIS EVENING. AFTER 1
AM...ANY ISOLATED SHOWERS SHOULD DIMINISH. WILL MAKE SOME MINOR SKY
COVER/TEMP UPDATES BASED ON CURRENT TRENDS. LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID
70S FOR THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...

FRI...RIDGE AXIS OF HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WEST ATLANTIC WILL REMAIN
NORTH OF THE AREA. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE MOISTURE
ACROSS THE REGION WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER LEVELS RECOVERING UPWARDS
TO AROUND 2.0 INCHES. IN ADDITION...MID LEVEL TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO
COOL BREAKING DOWN THE STRONGER INVERSION THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE AND
LEADING TO GREATER INSTABILITY OVER CENTRAL FLORIDA. THIS WILL LEAD
TO A MORE NORMAL DIURNAL PRECIP COVERAGE FOR MID-LATE
SUMMER...FAVORING MID-DAY THROUGH THE AFTERNOON PERIOD. TEMPS
RANGING FROM THE LOW 90S ALONG THE COAST UP TO MID 90S INLAND.

SAT-WED...LOW-MID LEVEL RIDGE RELOCATES AND PERSISTS FAR TO THE
NORTH. THIS WILL ALLOW ONE OF THE FIRST EXTENDED PERIODS OF
CLIMATOLOGICAL ONSHORE FLOW OF THIS ATYPICAL EARLY-MID 2014 WET
SEASON.
DEEP...ALBEIT LIGHT S/SE FLOW AND NEAR NORMAL MID LEVEL
TEMPS AND MOISTURE LEVELS WILL FAVOR SCATTERED DAILY LIGHTNING
STORMS...WITH THE HIGHEST COVERAGE NEAR THE COAST FROM LATE
MORNING THROUGH EARLY/MID AFTERNOON...AND INLAND FROM EARLY/MID
AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY EVENING. TEMPS NEAR NORMAL ALONG THE
COAST...AND A FEW DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL INLAND.

TUTT CELL FORECAST TO REACH THE BAHAMAS MON...THEN CONTINUE
WESTWARD TO FLORIDA STRAITS/CUBA BY WED. ASSOCIATED LOW-LEVEL
INVERTED TROUGH MAY HAVE ENOUGH AMPLITUDE TO INCREASE SE FLOW AND
MOISTURE ACROSS AT LEAST SOUTHERN PORTION OF CWA TOWARD THE END OF
THE FORECAST PERIOD. HOWEVER...WILL STAY WITH CLIMO CONDITIONS
UNTIL CONFIDENCE OF THIS POSSIBILITY INCREASES.



I thought you said something about 3-6" on Friday. Your highlighted Sat would be the day AFTER tomorrow.
Maybe the SCSFSU storm center should get a calendar to help with these tough concepts.
Quoting 510. weatherman994:

Hurricane Marie had. Me wondering if climate change could cause hurricanes to start affecting the state of California more hmmm.....

Absolutely um maybe it might errrr could
Strange that we haven't heard that we are going to have less
hurricanes after the EPAC blew up and Hawaii is still there.
Quoting Pallis1:
When those take off they go NE usually, but not always. They sure as heck go somewhere in a hurry!


We've seen some powerful October storms as well, with Wilma being the most powerful...
Quoting 517. CosmicEvents:

I thought you said something about 3-6" on Friday. Your highlighted Sat would be the day AFTER tomorrow.
Maybe the SCSFSU storm center should get a calendar to help with these tough concepts.


I know go to weatherbell and pull it up yourself as I am too lazy right now to save the image in imgur and then post it on here. Also no need for concept here as storms should concentrate across inland sections instead of coastal sections hence why all the heavy totals across Orlando.


Will they reactivate 97L already.
Quoting 512. StormTrackerScott:

El-Nino still going strong next Spring and probably will next summer too.



We need to see an El Nino materialize before we start talking about its duration and strength.
Quoting 522. TropicalAnalystwx13:

We need to see an El Nino materialize before we start talking about its strength.


Models say weak to moderate. going strong I mean not going away as they typically do in the spring.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

We need to see an El Nino materialize before we start talking about its strength.
Do you think that the United States will be affected this year, besides Arthur.
Quoting 523. StormTrackerScott:



Models say weak to moderate. going strong I mean not going away as they typically do in the spring.

I meant to add duration in my post as well.

I'm wary of models given how many times, and how severely, they've busted wrt El Nino the past 2 years.
Quoting 525. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I meant to add duration in my post as well.

I'm wary of models given how many times, and how severely, they've busted wrt El Nino the past 2 years.


The longer it waits the longer the demise of the Atlantic hurricane seasons. We need to get El-Nino to flush out all the kinks across the Atlantic basin so that we can begin seeing more normal hurricane seasons.
Biggest earthquakes during the last 48 hours
Size Time Quality Location
5.0 28 Aug 08:13:40 Checked 7.3 km ENE of Bárðarbunga
4.1 28 Aug 01:30:52 Checked 6.8 km E of Bárðarbunga
4.0 28 Aug 03:31:30 Checked 4.4 km NE of Bárðarbunga
3.9 27 Aug 23:53:44 Checked 5.1 km NE of Bárðarbunga
3.3 28 Aug 10:26:06 33.5 150.7 km E of Egilsstaðir
3.2 27 Aug 22:36:36 46.3 89.6 km SE of Egilsstaðir

Earthquakes during last 48 hours. at 29 Aug 03:20 GMT
Preliminary results






Recent earthquakes at Bardarbunga volcano (marker shows this morning's magnitude 5 quake
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
El-Nino still going strong next Spring and probably will next summer too.


Rapid warm-cold ENSO transitions are sometimes possible, this a long range climate forecast, so it's a wait and see kind of situation.
Quoting 512. StormTrackerScott:


Heck, I'd be happy if we can just get the current SST anomaly pattern to hold over the NPac.


Looks pretty good for rain in CA, unlike the 2006-07 "Fail Nino".
530. Siker
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I meant to add duration in my post as well.

I'm wary of models given how many times, and how severely, they've busted wrt El Nino the past 2 years.


TA, you'll probably answer that it's tough to tell right now, but I'll ask anyway:

Do you think an El Nino is more likely than not? Are there any indicators that this warm pool will survive better than the last one? (I know you've mentioned the warmth in the WPAC and the IO being a problem).
Quoting 512. StormTrackerScott:

El-Nino still going strong next Spring and probably will next summer too.


I hope you are right!!
Quoting 530. Siker:


TA, you'll probably answer that it's tough to tell right now, but I'll ask anyway:

Do you think an El Nino is more likely than not? Are there any indicators that this warm pool will survive better than the last one? (I know you've mentioned the warmth in the WPAC and the IO being a problem).


The first warm pool failed because the SOI index was positive now we are at El-Nino levels so this warm pool should survive.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values

SOI values for 28 Aug 2014



Average for last 30 days

-8.2



Average for last 90 days

-4.4



Daily contribution to SOI calculation

-5.5
Quoting 506. StormTrackerScott:



The flow pattern across FL with all the rain favoring the eastern side of the state is consistant with El-nino. The atmosphere has been in some sort of El-nino state since Spring now we just need to get it officially declared.


I officially declare that we have got more rain than we bargained for. Scott you are in the wet zone and it almost ruined my vacation to your neck of the woods. Weird patterns for SW Florida. We still got plenty in the sporadic category. It is not quite over either. I don't like to talk about this because subject because the last thing I want is for one more person top move to my State. They just come to steal our precious resources and treat us badly.
Quoting 521. HurricaneAndre:

Will they reactivate 97L already.
maybe soon by Friday morning
Quoting 533. Pallis1:
I officially declare that we have got more rain than we bargained for. Scott you are in the wet zone and it almost ruined my vacation to your neck of the woods. Weird patterns for SW Florida. We still got plenty in the sporadic category. It is not quite over either. I don't like to talk about this because subject because the last thing I want is for one more person top move to my State. They just come to steal our precious resources and treat us badly.


Been dry here the last 2 weeks though.
Quoting 533. Pallis1:
I officially declare that we have got more rain than we bargained for. Scott you are in the wet zone and it almost ruined my vacation to your neck of the woods. Weird patterns for SW Florida. We still got plenty in the sporadic category. It is not quite over either. I don't like to talk about this because subject because the last thing I want is for one more person top move to my State. They just come to steal our precious resources and treat us badly.


In one day this past July I picked up nearly 7". so far in August on 2" for the whole month.
Quoting 524. HurricaneAndre:

Do you think that the United States will be affected this year, besides Arthur.

Cristobal demonstrated that computer models and forecasters struggle with making track forecasts several days out, much less several weeks to several months. There's just no way to know at this point.

Quoting 530. Siker:



TA, you'll probably answer that it's tough to tell right now, but I'll ask anyway:

Do you think an El Nino is more likely than not? Are there any indicators that this warm pool will survive better than the last one? (I know you've mentioned the warmth in the WPAC and the IO being a problem).

I do think that the chances of a weak, short-lived El Nino this fall into winter are higher than not. Are we going to see a multi-year behemoth of an El Nino? Very unlikely.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


In one day this past July I picked up nearly 7". so far in August on 2" for the whole month.



The CFS has been getting wetter and wetter for October. All so JAN FEB and MAR are vary vary vary wet. And April could be vary wet has well
Quoting 537. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cristobal demonstrated that computer models and forecasters struggle with making track forecasts several days out, much less several weeks to several months. There's just no way to know at this point.


I do think that the chances of a weak, short-lived El Nino this fall into winter are higher than not. Are we going to see a multi-year behemoth of an El Nino? Very unlikely.


CFS model has decent El-Nino still in place next May with signs of maybe another warm pool organizing going into next summer.

What strikes me is the anomaly over the Gulf of Alaska, Gulf of St. Lawrence, and waters off the East Coast of Nova Scotia. I almost want to say that is the reason why we are seeing a delay in the El Nino. All the warm waters seem to be displaced into the subtropical regions leaving the waters over the equatorial regions cooler. Anyone have any feedback as to why this is happening.
Quoting 540. GTstormChaserCaleb:
What strikes me is the anomaly over the Gulf of Alaska, Gulf of St. Lawrence, and waters off the East Coast of Nova Scotia. I almost want to say that is the reason why we are seeing a delay in the El Nino. All the warm waters seem to be displaced into the subtropical regions leaving the waters over the equatorial regions cooler.


For now but that should change.

Quoting 519. nigel20:



We've seen some powerful October storms as well, with Wilma being the most powerful...
When, they go they almost always outrace the computer models. G'n't Nige.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Cristobal demonstrated that computer models and forecasters struggle with making track forecasts several days out, much less several weeks to several months. There's just no way to know at this point.


I do think that the chances of a weak, short-lived El Nino this fall into winter are higher than not. Are we going to see a multi-year behemoth of an El Nino? Very unlikely.

Hi Cody!
I'm amazed at your knowledge, time and time again.

It seems as if you read quite a bit...meted, AMS journals, etc?
What I think could happen is we transition to maybe a modiki El-Nino mid to late next summer opening the door to a 2004 type set up. Well see.
Quoting 539. StormTrackerScott:



CFS model has decent El-Nino still in place next May with signs of maybe another warm pool organizing going into next summer.



The CFS had an ongoing strong El Nino by this time several months ago.

Quoting 543. nigel20:


Hi Cody!
I'm amazed at your knowledge, time and time again.

It seems as if you read quite a bit...meted, AMS journals, etc?

Hi nigel.

Everything I've learned has been from various weather forums (mainly WU) and by interaction with others on Twitter. I don't have the patience to sit down and read AMS journals, lol. I'm still nowhere near as knowledge as people like Webberweather53, who is just a year older than I am.
Quoting Pallis1:
When, they go they almost always outrace the computer models. G'n't Nige.

Same to you, Pallis!
Quoting 544. StormTrackerScott:

What I think could happen is we transition to maybe a modiki El-Nino mid to late next summer opening the door to a 2004 type set up. Well see.


Modoki certainly seems more likely than it did a few months ago. I wouldn't be upset if it happened. Last time there was a modoki event LA had its wettest season since the 19th century.
Any attempt to predict next year's ENSO when it's still August of the preceding year... is folly.
FWIW, here's the 18z GFS ensembles for sea level pressures in 5.5 days:



If I were the NHC, I'd bump the 2-day formation odds up to 10% and the 5-day formation odds up to 40%.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The CFS had an ongoing strong El Nino by this time several months ago.


Hi nigel.

Everything I've learned has been from various weather forums (mainly WU) and by interaction with others on Twitter. I don't have the patience to sit down and read AMS journals, lol. I'm still nowhere near as knowledge as people like Webberweather53, who is just a year older than I am.


Yes, I've seen some of his post, and they are astonishing.
Quoting 447. nigel20:



Hey Caleb! How's the weather in your neck of the woods?

90 F is very common in our two major metros (Montego Bay and Kingston). It is a bit cooler (relatively) in the interior, with temps in the lower to mid 80s. Widespread showers also occurred over past week.
Hi Nigel! Sorry I missed this post. The weather has been blazing hot, in the lower 90s in Daytona Beach since I got back up to school, humidity and dew point have also been slowly rising after being dry for a few days due to the influence of High Pressure to the north of us, which has also kept rain chances down. Glad to see you are finally getting some rain in Jamaica.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Any attempt to predict next year's ENSO when it's still August of the preceding year... is folly.
I wonder how much we really know about ENSO and the whole Nino/Nina thing. First, the models obviously don't have a handle on it. They have been predicting an El Nino since about January, starting sometime in the spring...then the summer...then the fall...and now they say winter. Disregarding some of the more preposterous predictions we've heard about how powerful it will be, the conditions have more or less followed what the models thought - but no El Nino. At the same time, we've seen in the Pacific and Atlantic basins tropical storm conditions that almost exactly mimic El Nino conditions. I haven't seen a satisfactory answer to that issue. It just seems there are some kinds of teleconnections we don't really understand that control the global climate, and ENSO may just be too simple of an explanation.
What strikes me as odd is pancake boy. I think the decline of hurricane activity is a direct correlation with screaming at oncoming traffic throwing pancakes. Makes you wonder about the mentally hilarious lobster.
Quoting 553. sar2401:

I wonder how much we really know about ENSO and the whole Nino/Nina thing. First, the models obviously don't have a handle on it. They have been predicting an El Nino since about January, starting sometime in the spring...then the summer...then the fall...and now they say winter. Disregarding some of the more preposterous predictions we've heard about how powerful it will be, the conditions have more or less followed what the models thought - but no El Nino. At the same time, we've seen in the Pacific and Atlantic basins tropical storm conditions that almost exactly mimic El Nino conditions. I haven't seen a satisfactory answer to that issue. It just seems there are some kinds of teleconnections we don't really understand that control the global climate, and ENSO may just be too simple of an explanation.


Few here, but that's it in a nutshell. Well said, one of your best posts Sar. What's really going on? DHS purchases 1.6 billion in ammunition, no worries. So much going on that 99% have no clue about. Makes you wonder what's really coming down the pipe. I could say, but who wants to hear? Seeing is so much better. Or not.
FWIW The 00z CMC Model run shows a 977mb Hurricane off the Northern Mexican Coastline at 132hrs!
Quoting 554. Jaxpan:

What strikes me as odd is pancake boy. I think the decline of hurricane activity is a direct correlation with screaming at oncoming traffic throwing pancakes. Makes you wonder about the mentally hilarious lobster.


Are you reading my mind? Cooking pancakes now, headed out now to wing em at oncoming traffic. Mind you, not before I consult the mentally hilarious lobster; not to be confused with the physically hilarious lobster. Silly lobster with eleven legs.
Quoting 552. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Hi Nigel! Sorry I missed this post. The weather has been blazing hot, in the lower 90s in Daytona Beach since I got back up to school, humidity and dew point have also been slowly rising after being dry for a few days due to the influence of High Pressure to the north of us, which has also kept rain chances down. Glad to see you are finally getting some rain in Jamaica.


The good news is, models look a lot better for most of FL rain wise for the next several days compared to runs just a couple days ago. A couple days ago they showed deep layer ridging parked right over Florida, now they show it displaced further north with more deeper moisture tapping a more typical rain season pattern through most of the period, starting tomorrow.
Quoting 540. GTstormChaserCaleb:

What strikes me is the anomaly over the Gulf of Alaska, Gulf of St. Lawrence, and waters off the East Coast of Nova Scotia. I almost want to say that is the reason why we are seeing a delay in the El Nino. All the warm waters seem to be displaced into the subtropical regions leaving the waters over the equatorial regions cooler. Anyone have any feedback as to why this is happening.


I noticed the same, I haven't really done any research on why, so I'd rather refrain from coming up with any explanations, as all would be pure speculation.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Any attempt to predict next year's ENSO when it's still August of the preceding year... is folly.


Folly! I like that adjective.
Quoting 451. Thrawst:

I'm sorry if this has been already said, but is it just me that sees low level spiral cloud bands feeding into the center of Marie? It looks wicked cool on visible.




Isn't that what's supposed to happen? **usually
Quoting 560. swflurker:



Folly! I like that adjective.



It's a noun. Just saying.
Quoting 547. unknowncomic:




That looks like something spinning in the middle of a very moist environment but with some strong shear.

Shear look to relax further west though and ULL to the north looks like it's aiding in ventilating.

Good morning...The gulf seems to be angry this morning..
The Iceland Volcano is now starting an eruption in advance of the arrival of the remains of hurricane Christbal.

Heres a bit of news on a BBC link:-
Link

No ash or problems for aircraft at the moment.
566. MahFL
Flash flooding near Brownsville, hope no one dies....
good morning folly you cant touch it


Area south of the DR looks pretty good right now with the sun about to come up over it.
I hope we get invest 97L back soon
some rain and t.storms at 35 west to!!!
Still there. It would be very interesting if there was some robust development as it passes south of Cuba. At least something to watch over the weekend.

Quoting 569. JrWeathermanFL:



Area south of the DR looks pretty good right now with the sun about to come up over it.
FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BROWNSVILLE TX
545 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

TXC047-261-291215-
/O.NEW.KBRO.FA.Y.0049.140829T1045Z-140829T1215Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z .OO/
BROOKS-KENEDY-
545 AM CDT FRI AUG 29 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BROWNSVILLE HAS ISSUED AN

* ARROYO AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR RAPID ARROYO RISES IN...
SOUTHEASTERN BROOKS COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.
WESTERN KENEDY COUNTY IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS.

* UNTIL 715 AM CDT

* AT 544 AM CDT...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE NEAR ENCINO. RADAR
ESTIMATES AROUND THREE INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 430 AM AND
WATER FROM HEAVY RAINS IN KENEDY COUNTY HAS LIKELY ALREADY FILLED
ARROYOS IN THE AREA. THIS WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES OF SMALL STREAMS
AND ARROYOS AND LOCALIZED AREAS OF WATER COVERING THE ROADWAY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DON`T BECOME A STATISTIC. TURN AROUND...DON`T DROWN!

&&
Quoting 510. weatherman994:

Hurricane Marie had. Me wondering if climate change could cause hurricanes to start affecting the state of California more hmmm.....
The water is just too cold to support anything serious making it that far north. They would need a Pacific version of the Gulf Stream to kick in.
robust development will it happen this yr? not even september yet so my character says yes``````````````
Quoting 560. swflurker:



Folly! I like that adjective.



We have a beach in SC called Folly Beach. Gray Man lives there.

KORI...quite a piece of energy heading to the northern Gulf Coast. Needs watching.
Any bets for September activity in the Atlantic this year? I'm going with 3-2-1.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located a few hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
exepected to remain unfavorable for development during the
next day or so. However, environmental conditions could become
more conducive for some development when the system moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday, and into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing minimal
shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for development of this system during the next several
days while it moves westward near 15 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Forecaster Brown

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 29 2014

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Cristobal, located a few hundred miles southeast of Cape Race,
Newfoundland.

1. Disorganized cloudiness and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean
Sea are associated with a tropical wave. Upper-level winds are
exepected to remain unfavorable for development during the
next day or so. However, environmental conditions could become
more conducive for some development when the system moves over the
northwestern Caribbean Sea Saturday night or Sunday, and into the
southwestern Gulf of Mexico Sunday night or Monday.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent.

2. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing minimal
shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for development of this system during the next several
days while it moves westward near 15 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Any bets for September activity in the Atlantic this year? I'm going with 3-2-1.


3-1-0.
Quoting 580. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Any bets for September activity in the Atlantic this year? I'm going with 3-2-1.


3-1-1.
Volcano Erupts, Iceland Orders No-Fly Zone and Hurricane CRISTOBAL now up to 80mph moving at iceland
Quoting 579. K8eCane:



We have a beach in SC called Folly Beach. Gray Man lives there.

KORI...quite a piece of energy heading to the northern Gulf Coast. Needs watching.


I saw it first!

Good morning, ma'am.

Gee, I'm being unusually respectful, aren't I? :)
Quoting 580. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Any bets for September activity in the Atlantic this year? I'm going with 3-2-1.


More named storms than August 2014 had .... September = Remember!
Quoting 585. SFLWeatherman:

Volcano Erupts, Iceland Orders No-Fly Zone and Hurricane CRISTOBAL now up to 80mph moving at iceland
Just another summer day in the north Atlantic!
Quoting 586. KoritheMan:



I saw it first!

Good morning, ma'am.

Gee, I'm being unusually respectful, aren't I? :)


You sure are. Whats wrong? HaHa
Quoting 590. K8eCane:



You sure are. Whats wrong? HaHa


You're not on my ****list.

Either that or Nathan's been unwittingly tugging at the heart strings. We have a good friendship going on, you know.

Maybe a little bit of both?

:/
Quoting 583. CybrTeddy:



3-1-0.


I'm going with 2-1-0 for September. I think even 2 named system may be hard to attain.

This is pretty pathetic now that we are into the peak of hurricane season. CPC folks just like the Euro do not agree on anything forming in the Gulf over the next week.


Boy the GOM sure has gone from dry to full of moisture in very little time! Looks like a soggy weekend for us in NW Florida and probably a soggy week as it looks like the pattern is going to hold for some time.
Quoting 577. JNFlori30A:

The water is just too cold to support anything serious making it that far north. They would need a Pacific version of the Gulf Stream to kick in.


I already know the water is too cold but with the climate changing on us there very well could be a hurricane off the coast of California making landfall climate change may change the water temperature
Quoting 574. HaoleboySurfEC:

Still there. It would be very interesting if there was some robust development as it passes south of Cuba. At least something to watch over the weekend.




That area is interesting but the NHC has low odds on it.
Aug. 29, 2005 ... 9 Years after the landfall of Hurricane Katrina. The Gulf Coast from New Orleans, LA, all of Mississippi, eastward to Mobile, AL, changed forever. Incredible destructive and very deadly hurricane. Still a lot of signs of damage, but glad to see things coming back!
Quoting 591. KoritheMan:



You're not on my ****list.

Either that or Nathan's been unwittingly tugging at the heart strings. We have a good friendship going on, you know.

Maybe a little bit of both?

:/


Hey Man
With All Due Respect, I Have Never Known You To Be Disrespectful
Quoting 592. StormTrackerScott:



I'm going with 2-1-0 for September. I think even 2 named system may be hard to attain.

This is pretty pathetic now that we are into the peak of hurricane season. CPC folks just like the Euro do not agree on anything forming in the Gulf over the next week.





Ordinarily I'd be adamant amount the possibility of a system getting into the Caribbean (referring to the wave behind ex-97L), because it could lead to a potential landfall to the US Gulf Coast.

This year I just don't care. Not feeling it. It's not going to happen, lol.
Quoting 580. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Any bets for September activity in the Atlantic this year? I'm going with 3-2-1.
2-1, we finish the year 6-3-0
Quoting 593. 69Viking:

Boy the GOM sure has gone from dry to full of moisture in very little time! Looks like a soggy weekend for us in NW Florida and probably a soggy week as it looks like the pattern is going to hold for some time.


Looks like a soggy month for most of FL. It appears that for the first time all summer a steady diet of deep tropical moisture will continue to get funneled into the FL from the Caribbean and from the SE instead of this persistent west flow all summer.





4 hurricanes 2 majors good luck everyone end up with 9-10 storms
Quoting 597. K8eCane:



Hey Man
With All Due Respect, I Have Never Known You To Be Disrespectful


I'm pretty much being facetious, anyway.

Some people don't like my bluntness, but eh... My conscience sure is apathetic. :D
Quoting 598. KoritheMan:



Ordinarily I'd be adamant amount the possibility of a system getting into the Caribbean (referring to the wave behind ex-97L), because it could lead to a potential landfall to the US Gulf Coast.

This year I just don't care. Not feeling it. It's not going to happen, lol.


I agree its been frustrating watching all of these tropical waves struggle this year.
604. SLU
As far as Numerical Model Prediction busts go, this one is pretty ugly ...

2. A tropical wave near the west coast of Africa is producing minimal
shower activity. Environmental conditions are expected to remain
unfavorable for development of this system during the next several
days while it moves westward near 15 mph across the eastern and
central tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.




Quoting 600. StormTrackerScott:



Looks like a soggy month for most of FL. It appears that for the first time all summer a steady diet of deep tropical moisture will continue to get funneled into the FL from the Caribbean and from the SE instead of this persistent west flow all summer.








What, you mean that synoptic ridging thing?

I called it first! Weeks ago. :)
I'm going to be honest, this season has sucked! last season sucked! the atlantic has sucked for 3 consecutive years :( tell me I'm wrong because i'm not
I give up on this season! Let's bring on winter. Ready for some cooler weather here in Central Florida.
Quoting 602. KoritheMan:



I'm pretty much being facetious, anyway.

Some people don't like my bluntness, but eh... My conscience sure is apathetic. :D


I like bluntness. Anything else confuses me.

You just keep an eye on that Thing A Muh Bobber
and post your observations from time to time if you have time
609. SLU
I think the NHC puts too much weight on the GFS without waiting for models consensus. For example, if the 12Z and 18z runs of the GFS suddenly bomb out the next wave to come off Africa, the will almost immediately put an X on the wave without waiting for enough consistency and adequate reliable model support first. That's pretty much what happened with this wave.
610. Siker
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
I'm going to be honest, this season has sucked! last season sucked! the atlantic has sucked for 3 consecutive years :( tell me I'm wrong because i'm not


You could try crying into the Atlantic to make it moister :).
Although odds are low, do you think... if the disturbance moving W-WNW unexpectedly developed in the NW Caribbean Sea, would it be pulled northward toward the Gulf Coast? The ULL over the W Gulf might have an influence, if the shearing winds would relax a bit.
Quoting 609. SLU:

I think the NHC puts too much weight on the GFS without waiting for models consensus. For example, if the 12Z and 18z runs of the GFS suddenly bomb out the next wave to come off Africa, the will almost immediately put an X on the wave with waiting for enough consistency and adequate reliable model support first. That's pretty much what happened with this wave.


As much as some bash the Euro for not showing any systems forming well the Euro has come out on top just about every time and guess what over the next 10 days the Euro shows nothing. Very depressing for sure for some on here but I tried to prepare you guys on here that this was going to be the case whether had El-Nino declare now or not there seems to be some sort of odd pattern across the Atlantic Basin that is resembling El-Nino even though its not "officially" declared




Good upper level divergence is supporting the current development of convection in the NW GOM. IMO this currently is the best that this area has looked this week.
Quoting 611. Stormwatch247:

Although odds are low, do you think... if the disturbance moving W-WNW unexpectedly developed in the NW Caribbean Sea, would it be pulled northward toward the Gulf Coast? The ULL over the W Gulf might have an influence, if the shearing winds would relax a bit.


I don't think well see anything form in the Caribbean until around mid September as models are beginning to show very low pressures setting up across the Caribbean in 10 to 12 days from now. Reason for the lowering of pressure over the Caribbean is this strong ridge over the eastern US.

Quoting 606. wunderweatherman123:

I'm going to be honest, this season has sucked! last season sucked! the atlantic has sucked for 3 consecutive years :( tell me I'm wrong because i'm not


You are wrong. Not having hurricanes does not suck.
You guys want to here something even more depressing for the first time in history there will likely be no named tropical systems across the Globe on September 1st. Never has happened before!

#Atlantic 2014 Hurricane is shut down for the next 10 days

Even the good ole JB isn't enthused and that is saying something.
617. MahFL
From JAX NWS "UNLESS TROPICAL MOISTURE SURGES NW INTO OUR AREA FASTER THAN
MODELS DEPICT"

Er what ?
Quoting 613. GetReal:





Good upper level divergence is supporting the current development of convection in the NW GOM. IMO this currently is the best that this area has looked this week.


What you have is 98L over TX with its low level center that will head SW into Mexico. However its 500mb vort will be pulled NE toward the upper Texas coast while at the sametime a tropical wave will push ashore in this same area giving the Upper Texas & LA coast a big deluge tonight once diurnal heating takes hold. So tonight I wouldn't be surprised to see many areas around Houston and Beaumont picking up 3" to 6" of rain.
Quoting Stormwatch247:
Although odds are low, do you think... if the disturbance moving W-WNW unexpectedly developed in the NW Caribbean Sea, would it be pulled northward toward the Gulf Coast? The ULL over the W Gulf might have an influence, if the shearing winds would relax a bit.

Maybe more WNW-NWward TX/LA boarder to Tex/Max boarder
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


As much as some bash the Euro for not showing any systems forming well the Euro has come out on top just about every time and guess what over the next 10 days the Euro shows nothing. Very depressing for sure for some on here but I tried to prepare you guys on here that this was going to be the case whether had El-Nino declare now or not there seems to be some sort of odd pattern across the Atlantic Basin that is resembling El-Nino even though its not "officially" declared


Just based on climatology and what I'm seeing I expect we will see something develop within the next 10-14 days.
I remember back in the middle of August when many of the members (I remember who they were) of this blog said we wouldn't see a named system for the rest of August. I said that we would probably see a least 1 named system by the end of the month just based on climatology and I was correct. And 98L in the GOM could have ended up being number#2 but it ran out of water/time.

This time of year things can change fast.

The Euro - great model and the most accurate model. It also usually waits until a system is well established before jumping on board. It's like predicting the winner of a football game at halftime.
But once the Euro picks up on a system, it has shown to be the model to trust.

GFS - tries to predict the winner of the football game before it knows who's playing. lol
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I don't think well see anything form in the Caribbean until around mid September as models are beginning to show very low pressures setting up across the Caribbean in 10 to 12 days from now. Reason for the lowering of pressure over the Caribbean is this strong ridge over the eastern US.


Could possibly spit out a few storms in the Caribbean during Sept
623. SLU
Quoting 612. StormTrackerScott:



As much as some bash the Euro for not showing any systems forming well the Euro has come out on top just about every time and guess what over the next 10 days the Euro shows nothing. Very depressing for sure for some on here but I tried to prepare you guys on here that this was going to be the case whether had El-Nino declare now or not there seems to be some sort of odd pattern across the Atlantic Basin that is resembling El-Nino even though its not "officially" declared


Last year was the same. We might as well have had El Nino running for the last 2 years. At least next year would have benefited.

About the EURO, yes it does miss cyclogenesis at times but the prevalence of the GFS making false alarms appears to be much higher than the prevalence of the EURO missing a system. Everyday for a month from mid-May to mid-June, the GFS develops ghosts storms in the Western Caribbean. Not to mention the ghost MDR storms every season. It used to be far worse with the older versions of the GFS but these flaws still exists and it is frustrating.
624. SLU
Quoting 621. Sfloridacat5:



Just based on climatology and what I'm seeing I expect we will see something develop within the next 10-14 days.
I remember back in the middle of August when many of the members (I remember who they were) of this blog said we wouldn't see a named system for the rest of August. I said that we would probably see a least 1 named system by the end of the month just based on climatology and I was correct. And 98L in the GOM could have ended up being number#2 but ran out of water.

This time of year things can change fast.

The Euro - great model and the most accurate model. It also usually waits until a system is well established before jumping on board. It's like predicting the winner of a football game at halftime.
But once the Euro picks up on a system, it has shown to be the model to trust.

GFS - tries to predict the winner of the football game before it knows who's playing. lol



Excellent! That explains the difference between the 2 models.
Quoting 621. Sfloridacat5:



Just based on climatology and what I'm seeing I expect we will see something develop within the next 10-14 days.
Back in the middle of August many of the members (I remember who they were) of this blog said we wouldn't see a system for the rest of August. I said that we would probably see a least 1 named system by the end of the month just based on climatology and I was correct. And 98L in the GOM could have ended up being number#2 but ran out of water.

This time of year things can change fast.

The Euro - great model and the most accurate model. It also usually waits until a system is well established before jumping on board. It's like predicting the winner of a football game at halftime.
But once the Euro picks up on a system, it has shown to be the model to trust.

GFS - tries to predict the winner of the football game before it knows who's playing. lol


Our best chance to see something is in that 10 to 14 day window you mentioned. Around mid September i think we will see a system in the Caribbean form but not until then as the pressure are just too dam high across the whole entire Atlantic Basin. It's as if the Atlantic is shutting down for business. However there could be a sneaker system before day 10 of my forecast near the Mexico coast that could form as that is the only area where pressures will be low enough to get something before September 10th.
Quoting 612. StormTrackerScott:



As much as some bash the Euro for not showing any systems forming well the Euro has come out on top just about every time and guess what over the next 10 days the Euro shows nothing. Very depressing for sure for some on here but I tried to prepare you guys on here that this was going to be the case whether had El-Nino declare now or not there seems to be some sort of odd pattern across the Atlantic Basin that is resembling El-Nino even though its not "officially" declared


Thanks for preparing us Scott. The blog is a better place now.
Quoting 622. wunderkidcayman:


Could possibly spit out a few storms in the Caribbean during Sept


Maybe 2. I do think this area of the NW Caribbean will be the spot to watch come September the 10th and there could be a chance we get a major out of the NW Caribbean.
Quoting 619. StormTrackerScott:


What you have is 98L over TX with its low level center that will head SW into Mexico. However its 500mb vort will be pulled NE toward the upper Texas coast while at the sametime a tropical wave will push ashore in this same area giving the Upper Texas & LA coast a big deluge tonight once diurnal heating takes hold. So tonight I wouldn't be surprised to see many areas around Houston and Beaumont picking up 3" to 6" of rain.


I'm gonna hold you to that Houston prediction ;-)
629. silas
I think this blog is ridiculous right now. Some people insist on complaining and complaining and complaining...it gets old fast. If you're sick and tired of this season then just leave, go do something else. Seriously. Come back next time a major weather event that you enjoy tracking occurs. But this is a weather blog, not a vent your frustrations blog, which is what it's fast becoming. This is especially tiresome to me since there's absolutely nothing wrong with quiet seasons in 99% of people's opinions.

Just my three cents...I could keep going on, but I'll stop.
Quoting 628. Greg01:



I'm gonna hold you to that Houston prediction ;-)


I think tomorrow is your big day for rains.

Quoting 629. silas:

I think this blog is ridiculous right now. Some people insist on complaining and complaining and complaining...it gets old fast. If you're sick and tired of this season then just leave, go do something else. Seriously. Come back next time a major weather event that you enjoy tracking occurs. But this is a weather blog, not a vent your frustrations blog, which is what it's fast becoming. This is especially tiresome to me since there's absolutely nothing wrong with quiet seasons in 99% of people's opinions.

Just my three cents...I could keep going on, but I'll stop.



We all come here track tropical systems and there aren't any. You do know the GW post will be coming sooner rather than later right.
Quoting 616. StormTrackerScott:

You guys want to here something even more depressing for the first time in history there will likely be no named tropical systems across the Globe on September 1st. Never has happened before!

#Atlantic 2014 Hurricane is shut down for the next 10 days

Even the good ole JB isn't enthused and that is saying something.

lots of wind shear and dry air
Quoting 628. Greg01:



I'm gonna hold you to that Houston prediction ;-)


Don't bet money on it. You'll lose the majority of the time.
As scott was mentioning.
NAM shows 98L well inland over northen Mexico while a lot of its energy/left over moisture heads up towards the upper Texas coast.

Also take note of the wave in the Western Caribbean that needs to be watched as it enters the Southern GOM.

NAM at 84 hours with devloping Low in the BOC.

Quoting 632. hurricanes2018:

lots of wind shear and dry air


You know that someone on here will relate no named storms across the Globe on September 1st to GW even though there is no relation.
here come the rain
(CNN) -- A volcano erupted in Papua New Guinea on Friday, spurting ash tens of thousands of feet into the sky.

The eruption of Mount Tavurvur on the island of New Britain began early Friday, said Craig Earl-Spurr, a meteorologist at the Darwin Volcanic Ash Advisory Center in Australia.

The volcano spewed a thick tower of ash that reached as high as 60,000 feet above sea level.

Dramatic photos posted on social media showed Tavurvur belching fire and ash from across a bay. The volcano is situated only a few kilometers from the township of Rabaul.

In 1994, Tavurvur erupted at the same time as nearby Mount Vulcan, destroying Rabaul.





Link
New Floater up.

GFS at 84 hours is in agreement with the NAM that we will have a developing low in the BOC in a few days. We're lucky this system isn't taking a path further to the north or things could get very interesting.

Goodbye, adios, sayonara. au revoir, alvida Cristobal enjoy your trip to Iceland.

Interesting article..from Capital Weather Gang

Should you believe winter forecasts issued in August? Probably not.
CMC going crazy with the BOC low.

Quoting 639. GTstormChaserCaleb:

New Floater up.




Tuesday, Sept. 2. Looks like we should have at least a Tropical Depression if this forecast holds true. This model is showing 32 - 38 mph sustained winds so just under T.S. strength.
Remembering what happened 9 years ago to folks along the LA and MS Gulf Coast...I'll take a "sucky" hurricane season anyday. It's exciting to watch storms develop, to track their path and second guess the NHC, but if it means no lives are lost and people don't lose their homes, then I say I hope we see another "sucky" season.

Happy Friday.
Quoting 643. Sfloridacat5:

CMC going crazy with the BOC low.


look like a tropical storm to me..lets hope it happern soon.
so on fox 13 tampa they were discussing the big red tide bloom in the gulf. one scientist says there looking at the link of the bloom being started by heavy dust that blows in off the sahara... then that sort of helps the naturally occurring algae start growing. then add a little run off and phosphate to feed them plenty and they really take off. then the third factor is no storms in the gulf to naturally disperse the bloom. they said if and until a storm comes through this red tide could get even worse.
DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20140829 1145 16.1 71.5 T1.0/1.0 IN1 INVEST

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 29/1145Z

C. 16.1N

D. 71.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GOOD CONVERGENCE ON SELY FLOW HAS LEAD TO LARGE PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE AREA THAT HAS CURVATURE MEASURING .3 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 1.0.
CSC PSBL LLC CAN BE SEEN NW OF THE CONVECTION TO WARRANT INITAL
CLASSIFICATION. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.0. FT IS 1.0 BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...GALLINA


maybe a new invest soon
Something is bound to form in all of this. Too much energy in a small area.

29/1145 UTC 44.7N 49.0W EXTRATROPICAL CRISTOBAL -- Atlantic
29/1145 UTC 16.1N 71.5W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- Atlantic
Quoting 651. Grothar:

Something is bound to form in all of this. Too much energy in a small area.




I could see a low forming from that, maybe a tropical depression at best, but it seems too close to land for anything more.

new invest soon maybe ex-invest 97L OR new invest 99L
Quoting 649. intampa:

so on fox 13 tampa they were discussing the big red tide bloom in the gulf. one scientist says there looking at the link of the bloom being started by heavy dust that blows in off the sahara... then that sort of helps the naturally occurring algae start growing. then add a little run off and phosphate to feed them plenty and they really take off. then the third factor is no storms in the gulf to naturally disperse the bloom. they said if and until a storm comes through this red tide could get even worse.





The red tide on the west coast is always kept as a big secret in the press. It is one of the big negatives about the west coast of Florida...It has been a constant problem and it is quite frankly horrible..
Quoting 636. StormTrackerScott:



You know that someone on here will relate no named storms across the Globe on September 1st to GW even though there is no relation.
Did you know that if there are no named storms on September 1st it means that the globe is warming and its our fault.?.......mornin Scott..:)


still some wind shear on this invest its the wind shear going down soon.. anyone tll me what is going on with the wind shear.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
11:30 AM IST August 29 2014
====================================

A Well Marked Low Pressure Area lies over west central and adjoining northwest Bay of Bengal off northern Andhra Pradesh and southern Odisha coasts.

System may concentrate into a depression during the next 12 hours.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential For The Bay of Bengal
============================================
HIGH in the next 72 hours
Quoting 655. PalmBeachWeather1950:






The red tide on the west coast is always kept as a big secret in the press. It is one of the big negatives about the west coast of Florida...It has been a constant problem and it is quite frankly horrible..
Yep..A decent tropical storm does wonders to clear the gulf coastal waters and its beaches...I remember one bad episode in the 70,s. The smell was terrible and no walks on the beach without shoes for months.
Hmm I'm not sure but I think we got an invest tagged our Carib AOI best estimate is 16N 71W


At 1200 UTC, 29 August 2014, EXTRATROPICAL SYSTEM CRISTOBAL (AL04) was located in the North Atlantic basin at 44.4N and 48.6W. The current intensity was 70 kt and the center was moving at 48 kt at a bearing of 55 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 973 mb.
digging troughs was the reason the east coast of florida got the bulk of rain this rainy season. not el nino.
Wow damage and flooding occurred on seal beach and Catalina island in California and its amazing because this Marie is 800 miles away from California coast
Quoting 636. StormTrackerScott:



You know that someone on here will relate no named storms across the Globe on September 1st to GW even though there is no relation.


Gee, that's a pretty rigid declarative statement.You know this how?
that GOES rapid-scan image loop is gorgeous! Is there a way to export the loop as an .mp4 or movie file to show other folks?

I wan' it, I wan' it! It even shows Florida for spatial reference.

the snapshot of Marie in the Pasific, looked like it was trying to spawn a little sister, did it survive the blow up?
Very long ways out...

biff4ugothe snapshot of Marie in the Pasific, looked like it was trying to spawn a little sister, did it survive the blow up?


that was the location of Tropical Cyclone Karina
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
Hmm I'm not sure but I think we got an invest tagged our Carib AOI best estimate is 16N 71W


The Caribbean is very interesting right now with two areas of energy. One just south of Hispaniola and the other one in the Southern Caribbean.
The models seem to think both areas will combine into one system in the Western Caribbean. If this system could some how miss the Yucatan (very unlikely) it could become a stong system.
Most likely it will have to cross the Yucatan and then have a short window of time in the BOC to develop.
No matter development or not if you live along the Gulf Coast you're most likely going to get a good soaking in the next day or two, that is definitely a lot of energy especially South of LA!

XXL/INV/XX
Quoting 670. 69Viking:

No matter development or not if you live along the Gulf Coast you're most likely going to get a good soaking in the next day or two, that is definitely a lot of energy especially South of LA!




This is because I have tickets to see my wife's alma mater, The University of Houston, playing Texas-San Antonio tonight.

Even when it rained in SETX, it always carefully avoided my part of Harris County. OTOH, I think HGX said GLS is almost 14" below normal for the year in rainfall.
Quoting 648. hurricanes2018:

look like a tropical storm to me..lets hope it happern soon.


CMC up to it's usual antics. How can you even count those isobars???
Quoting 651. Grothar:

Something is bound to form in all of this. Too much energy in a small area.




No pre-existing vorticity in the Northern Gulf, ex-98L still the show, and 20 knots of shear. It'd have to persists over water for a while, and I don't think it will.
TXNT28 KNES 291223
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE

B. 29/1145Z

C. 16.1N

D. 71.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...GOOD CONVERGENCE ON SELY FLOW HAS LEAD TO LARGE PERSISTENT
CONVECTIVE AREA THAT HAS CURVATURE MEASURING .3 ON LOG10 FOR DT OF 1.0.
CSC PSBL LLC CAN BE SEEN NW OF THE CONVECTION TO WARRANT INITAL
CLASSIFICATION. MET IS 1.0. PT IS 1.0. FT IS 1.0 BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


Link
677. wxmod
M 4.9 - 30km ESE of Iwaki, Japan
I see a buffalo and its calf...

Anyone?

Quoting 651. Grothar:

Something is bound to form in all of this. Too much energy in a small area.


Quoting 675. EdMahmoud:



No pre-existing vorticity in the Northern Gulf, ex-98L still the show, and 20 knots of shear. It'd have to persists over water for a while, and I don't think it will.


Well, I do! :)
12Z NAM at 36 hours
Quoting 657. hurricanes2018:


still some wind shear on this invest its the wind shear going down soon.. anyone tll me what is going on with the wind shear.
TBH wind shear is not actually that bad where the AOI is located. North of it the shear is 30 kts but mostly 10-20 kts where this is located.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
TBH wind shear is not actually that bad where the AOI is located. North of it the shear is 30 kts but mostly 10-20 kts where this is located.

With this thing going into more favoured conditions and into the area with the highest TCHP throughout the whole Atlantic basin I think this could ramp up pretty quickly
683. MahFL
Quoting 648. hurricanes2018:

look like a tropical storm to me..lets hope it happern soon.


126 hours, that's 6 days.
Quoting 682. wunderkidcayman:

With this thing going into more favoured conditions and into the area with the highest TCHP throughout the whole Atlantic basin I think this could ramp up pretty quickly
I said yesterday although conditions are different from 2008 this brings to mind Gustav. It is a bit further north but he also wiated until this general area to develop. Not saying it will but imo chances have improved.
In all seriousness, conditions have sure changed in the GOM in the last 48. I'm not giving much credence to any forecasts over 24-48 hours, regardless of who is issuing them. Wouldn't be surprised if we have 2 or more storms form prior to September 15th.

May not be a classic CV season, but that concerns me greatly. Storms that would normally turn OTS may not do that this year due to unfavorable conditions in MDR.


Quoting 678. HaoleboySurfEC:

I see a buffalo and its calf...

Anyone?


Not even a suggestion of lower than normal pressures in the next 15 days per Euro ensembles.

They do see slightly lower than normal pressure days 4-6 in the BoC, ballpark 3 mb lower than normal. 4 to 6 days out, if ensembles were indicating tropical cyclogenesis of any magnitude, I'd expect more than that. Maybe not the 16 to 18 mb anomaly it shows over Hudson Bay, but...

GEFS 0Z a little more optimistic, but all are quick developers and then into Mexico quickly.




6 of 20 GEFS members show hurricanes over the Yucatan or in the Gulf in 16 days. I have a funny feeling that is wrong.


Long story short, possible TD or TS (6Z GFS 1004 mb system at landfall would probably be a storm if that verifies, and low resolution global may be a mb or three too weak with that system) that quickly makes landfall in Mexico Tuesday or Wednesday, then 10 days of not much. Euro op and ensemble MJO is unfavorable the entire period. Of course, a storm can form in an unfavorable MJO. Maybe one of those Kelvin Waves I don't know enough about.
Is there officially an invest, and if so, what is the number? Nothing so far on NRL or Florida Water tropical model page.
Rainy day for the gulf coast!
Quoting hurricanes2018:


still some wind shear on this invest its the wind shear going down soon.. anyone tll me what is going on with the wind shear.

Quoting 656. hydrus:

Did you know that if there are no named storms on September 1st it means that the globe is warming and its our fault.?.......mornin Scott..:)

Is that the "Atlantic," globe or the "World Globe," which is at the center of the debate?
Quoting 691. HurricaneAndre:





20 knots is hostile, but not a complete killer, it'll prevent development, but not kill the wave. The 10 knots in the Western Caribbean would allow slow development, everything else being favorable.

On an unrelated note, the dewpoint depression in Houston (looking that way from the Galleria) must be miniscule, shelf cloud ahead of shower almost touching the tops of the buildings. Although Hobby last hour was 86ºF over 76ºF, which isn't that small a dewpoint depression. Ugly turbulent look to the shelf cloud.

Quoting 689. EdMahmoud:
Is there officially an invest, and if so, what is the number? Nothing so far on NRL or Florida Water tropical model page.
Link
I'm not that enthusiastic on the Caribbean tropical wave, as it'll be a low runner with limited time over the Bay of Campeche to develop, but I think NHC 5 day 20% low odds are a touch pessimistic. Euro may not like it to become a TC, but enough other models do, and while the Euro is usually (not always) superior to the GFS, GFS did better predicting Bertha than Euro did, so I'd think a 2 day low and a 5 day medium might be more appropriate.

Quoting EdMahmoud:
Is there officially an invest, and if so, what is the number? Nothing so far on NRL or Florida Water tropical model page.

Yes it's an official invest but NHC is still deciding whether it's 99L or 97L that's why no number yet and no runs on it as of yet
Quoting 606. wunderweatherman123:
I'm going to be honest, this season has sucked! last season sucked! the atlantic has sucked for 3 consecutive years :( tell me I'm wrong because i'm not

Quit whining and enjoy the Pacific instead. At least we are NOT getting any Cat 5 storms heading towards a landfall somewhere.
Quoting 651. Grothar:

Something is bound to form in all of this. Too much energy in a small area.




Nothing will form on that. Paraphrasing the NWS Tallahassee discussion this convection is on the periphery of a very high Precip water gradient. just a lot of instability but its all moving northwards and will not be a threat to develop.
there is a nice line of boomers crossing into Baytown, TX this morning. With all that energy in the gulf being pulled north, its gonna be a rainy weekend here. My lawn is parched. Just hope no damage occurs.
Quoting CitikatzSouthFL:

Quit whining and enjoy the Pacific instead. At least we are NOT getting any Cat 5 storms heading towards a landfall somewhere.

You know surprisingly some people on here wants a Cat 5 landfalling on them
It ridiculous but it's true
Quoting 694. Patrap:

looks like someone tossed the shrimps in the berlin' pot ;)
I was on the Invest Long Floater - Visible Imagery Loop page I see the invest move nw
Quoting hurricanes2018:
I was on the Invest Long Floater - Visible Imagery Loop page I see the invest move nw

Really I was just looking at it and I don't see it not NW
Pretty common that East Pac and Atlantic tend to have 'opposite' TC seasons, with the East Pac hyperactive, shouldn't be a surprise Atlantic is comatose.

Better explanation for a comatose Atlantic than 'global warming', especially since so many documentaries about 2005 and Katrina in particular seemed to suggest global warming contributed to that hyperactive Atlantic season. To say 2005 was over the top and 9 years later, unusually quiet tropics are both global warminbg.

2012 and Sandy was more about sea level rise on the documentaries, blamed on anthropogenicglobal warming. No mention of Native American artifacts in shallow water off Long Island, or that the Hudson River channel continues well beyond New York City.

AGW certainly seems possible, blaming every remarkable weather event on it, or making predictions in 2007 that the Arctic would be ice free in Summer 2013 doesn't help the credibility. I know some people think it could become a crisis, but outlandish claims sets the whole cause back. That 2007/2013 no ice Arctic claim is very popular in AGW skeptic communities (I'm on Facebook, I have 'friends' from across the spectrum), and using the term 'deniers', a clear attempt to link them to the odious deniers of the Holocaust, is also counter-productive.
Quoting 700. boltdwright:



Nothing will form on that. Paraphrasing the NWS Tallahassee discussion this convection is on the periphery of a very high Precip water gradient. just a lot of instability but its all moving northwards and will not be a threat to develop.


And you believe them over me?
Quoting 697. wunderkidcayman:


Yes it's an official invest but NHC is still deciding whether it's 99L or 97L that's why no number yet and no runs on it as of yet


How do you know this, if I may ask?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/gmex/rb-l.jpg


Just hope all that rains drenches us and moves on to much needed areas...would not want to see an "Allison effect" out of this system...
POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE CRISTOBAL DISCUSSION NUMBER 24
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042014
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 29 2014

Cristobal has completed its transformation into an extratropical
cyclone with all of the cold cloud tops located well north and
northwest of the exposed center. A frontal boundary has also
wrapped around the southern portion of the circulation. A recent
ASCAT pass revealed a large area of 50-60 kt winds to the southeast
of the center. Based on these data, the initial intensity is set at
65 kt. Although some gradual weakening is forecast during the next
day or so, the low is expected to remain a large and powerful
cyclone over the north Atlantic until it merges with another large
low near Iceland in 36 to 48 hours.

The cyclone has been moving northeast at more than 40 kt during the
past 6 to 12 hours. However, the low is expected to slow down some
while it continues on a northeastward heading in deep layer
southwesterly flow during the next day or so. The official track
forecast lies between the ECMWF and GFS solution and has been
coordinated with guidance from the Ocean Prediction Center.

This is the last NHC advisory on this system. Additional
information on this system can be found in High Seas Forecasts
issued by the National Weather Service...under AWIPS header
NFDHSFAT1 and WMO header FZNT01 KWBC.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 29/1500Z 45.5N 47.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
12H 30/0000Z 48.2N 41.8W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
24H 30/1200Z 51.5N 35.0W 60 KT 70 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
36H 31/0000Z 55.0N 27.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
48H 31/1200Z...MERGED WITH ANOTHER LOW
Quoting 693. EdMahmoud:


20 knots is hostile, but not a complete killer, it'll prevent development, but not kill the wave. The 10 knots in the Western Caribbean would allow slow development, everything else being favorable.

On an unrelated note, the dewpoint depression in Houston (looking that way from the Galleria) must be miniscule, shelf cloud ahead of shower almost touching the tops of the buildings. Although Hobby last hour was 86ºF over 76ºF, which isn't that small a dewpoint depression. Ugly turbulent look to the shelf cloud.



I am downtown and it's clear here. I can see all the way to the horizon from the 40th floor....
WKC could be right, it is just 'Invest' on SSD...
Lots of mid level and high level moisture streaming in over the Bay Area from Marie. No rain (yet), but the vapor loop shows a small jet max streaking in from the northwest out over the Gulf of Alaska.
nice high in the northeast keep any tropical storm or hurricane moving west to the east coast!!
Quoting 711. Greg01:



I am downtown and it's clear here. I can see all the way to the horizon from the 40th floor....


Shower has passed now, but there was one low shelf cloud. Radar shows a rather thin line. One crack of thunder and 5 minutes of rain, and some blue sky between the clouds now.

Quoting 580. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Any bets for September activity in the Atlantic this year? I'm going with 3-2-1.
4-2-1. Going to be on the bright side.
Quoting EdMahmoud:


How do you know this, if I may ask?
Quoting EdMahmoud:
WKC could be right, it is just 'Invest' on SSD...

I know I'm right
Quoting 670. 69Viking:
No matter development or not if you live along the Gulf Coast you're most likely going to get a good soaking in the next day or two, that is definitely a lot of energy especially South of LA!


I am in Intracoastal City, La. This thing is like a depression here right now. Lots of wind. It won't be pretty I can tell you. Bad flooding is almost certain,
Quoting hurricanes2018:
nice high in the northeast keep any tropical storm or hurricane moving west to the east coast!!


Or keeps any tropical system away from the US E coast
It a open channel for the Caribbean and GOM area however

From here on out that is where I think you would find most of the activity for the rest of the season
lots rain at 30 west nice tropical wave
the hazardous weather outlook for houston reads like a small TD. just had a heavy downpour. fun times this weekend.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 707. Grothar:



And you believe them over me?


You know I love your posts Gro, but yes, I do ;). Considering I know many of them personally and they are an excellent NWS WFO.
Quoting 697. wunderkidcayman:


Yes it's an official invest but NHC is still deciding whether it's 99L or 97L that's why no number yet and no runs on it as of yet


How do you know this? Are in in communication with the NHC? I would love to know. thx.
Hey all. Looks like the tables may be turning. Perhaps only for a short time, but conditions have recently deteriorated quite a bit over the epac. Shear has risen beyond what could be conducive for storm formation e of 120w, where most storms tend to form and dry air has taken a strong footing throughout much of the region. Meanwhile, the Atlantic seems to have come alive. I think we may see something yet, frankly. I'm not sure about cv's, but the wave in the catl isn't looking bad, but convection seems rather confined to the itcz and there's not much showing up on vorticity maps. The gom is pretty ripe along the the carib, but shear is still a little on the high side. The atl basin looks the best I've seen as a whole, which is logical considering it's almost September.




Our carib "invest" looks good with a modest amount of spin and widespread moderate-heavy convection. I'd watch this one down the line TX and LA. MX stands in its way, so a lot of variables still.



So, looks as though we may have some opportunities coming up to track something. I say 50/50 :) September is a relatively active month. Relative to '13 or '05? Idk, but I think it's going to be a better month than many imagine given the first half of '14 and essentially all of '13. Enjoy your Friday all. Stay safe out there. Lotsa crazies!