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Crazy Cryosphere: Record Low Sea Ice, An Overheated Arctic, and a Snowbound Eurasia

By: Bob Henson 6:07 PM GMT on November 18, 2016

There are weather and climate records, and then there are truly exceptional events that leave all others in the dust. Such has been the case across Earth’s high latitudes during this last quarter of 2016, on track to be the planet’s warmest year on record. Sea ice extent and area have both plummeted to record lows for this time of year in both the Arctic and Antarctic. Such dramatic losses rarely occur at the same time, which means that the global total of sea ice coverage is phenomenally low for this time of year. The weirdness extends to midlatitudes: North America as well as the Arctic have been bathed in unusual mildness over the last several weeks, while Eurasia deals with a vast zone of above-average snowfall and below-average temperatures. Let’s look at each of these to see what’s up and where they may (or may not) be related.


Figure 1. Global sea ice area, including both Arctic and Antarctic. Sea ice extent is typically larger than sea ice area because it includes all data cells with at least 15 percent ice coverage (see NSIDC definitions). Global sea ice extent is experiencing a similar departure from average as global sea ice area. Experts usually analyze Arctic and Antarctic sea ice separately rather than together (see discussion below). Image credit: Wipneus, using data from National Snow and Ice Data Center. (NSIDC was not involved in producing this image.)


Figure 2. The normalized value of global sea ice area as of November 17, 2016, was so far from any other total in the 37-year record that it represented a departure of about 8 standard deviations below the average! Image credit: Wipneus, using data from National Snow and Ice Data Center. (NSIDC was not involved in producing this image.)


Figure 3. Departures from the 1981-2010 average for sea ice extent, in millions of square kilometers, across the Arctic (blue) and Antarctic (green) in the year 2016 through November 17. The departures from average were almost equally large by mid-November, leading to a total global sea ice extent of more than 4.2 million sq km below average. Image credit: Zachary Labe, based on data from the National Snow and Ice Data Center. (NSIDC was not involved in producing this image.)

Strange times at both poles: coincidence or connection?
Round-the-clock darkness usually forces a rapid growth in sea ice across the Arctic by November, but that process has been much slower than normal over the past month or so. There is now far less mid-November sea ice in the Arctic than in any other year since satellite records began in 1979. For the five-day average ending November 17, the difference in Arctic sea ice extent between this year and the next-lowest year (2012) was 582,000 square kilometers, an area about a third larger than California. It’s an especially dramatic example of the long-term decline in sea ice across the Arctic that’s been evident for upwards of 20 years.

Experts agree that the laggard sea ice this month around Antarctica is a separate matter from the Arctic, because sea ice in the northern and southern polar regions is produced by two markedly different circulation regimes and geographies. “At NSIDC, we generally frown on the practice of looking at the global sea ice extent,” said Mark Serreze, director of the National Snow and Ice Data Center, “the reason being that ice in the two hemispheres tends to behave rather differently; while Arctic extent shows clear downward trends in all months, the pattern for the Antarctic has been much more complex.” Serreze and several other ice experts I contacted agreed that there was no obvious explanation for why sea ice extent would suddenly dip in unison in both the Arctic and Antarctic when the two processes are typically so uncorrelated. Previous record-warm years didn’t behave this way. Could some previously dormant or absent connection be popping up just now? If so, it’s not an obvious one. NSIDC’s Ted Scambos: “I’d say that to link the two poles with a single causality chain at the seasonal/annual level is probably about a decade of research in the future.”

Unlike the Arctic, sea ice extent around Antarctica has actually shown a slight increasing trend over the last couple of decades. This might seem odd in a global climate that’s warming, but there are several plausible explanations, as we discussed in an October 26 post. Just two years ago, in September 2014, Antarctic sea ice extent hit the highest values observed at any time of the year since monitoring began in 1979. We’re now seeing the lowest values on record for mid-November, and the margin between this year and all other years has been increasing. For the five-day average ending November 17, the difference in Antarctic sea ice extent between this year and the next-lowest year (1986) was an enormous 1.12 million square kilometers.

An Arctic that’s having trouble cooling down
Temperatures north of 80°N smashed records for warmth throughout the winter of 2015-16. Now they’re on an even more torrid pace. In mid-November, temperatures across the high Arctic spiked to readings more typical of September, about 40°F above average for this time of year (see Figure 3 in our November 17 post). “Continued persistence of this pattern may significantly affect sea ice thickness into 2017,” tweeted Zach Labe (@Zlabe, University of California, Irvine) on Monday.

It’s difficult to measure sea ice thickness and volume in a continuous way, but the University of Washington’s PIOMAS model, which estimates sea ice volume using the available data, dove into record-low territory this month, just weeks after a rapid refreeze took place early in the autumn. “Whatever the respective roles of natural variability and [anthropogenic global warming], these wild swings do not inspire confidence in a semi-stable system,” noted Neven Acropolis in an early-November update on the Arctic Sea Ice Blog.


Figure 4. The huge contrasts between a far-warmer-than-average Arctic and a much-colder-than-average North Asia are projected to continue for the period November 18 - 22, 2016, as forecast by the GFS model on Thursday, November 17. Shown are anomalies (departures from average) in degrees Fahrenheit (top of legend) and Celsius (bottom of legend). Image credit: ClimateReanalyzer.com, University of Maine.

The atmospheric circulation this autumn has favored southerly flow from the eastern Pacific into the Atlantic, which has pushed recurrent bouts of unusually warm air across North America and the North Atlantic into the Arctic. One focal point of the warmth has been the Kara and Barents Sea, north of Scandinavia and western Russia, where sea ice has seen little or no expansion for November thus far. Temperatures in Longyearben, Norway--Earth’s northernmost permanent settlement, at latitude 78°N--have varied between about 7°C and -4°C (45°F and 25°F) since October 22. The average high and low for November 15 are about 12°F and 0°F.


Figure 5. Temperatures in Svalbard, Norway (in degrees C) from October 2015 to October 2016, including daily highs and lows (spiky line) and a running average (smoothed line). Readings above freezing (0°C) are shown in red, with readings below freezing in blue. Only a couple of days in the entire past year have stayed below average (black curve), and only four days this autumn through November 17 have failed to get above freezing. Image credit: Norwegian Meteorological Service.


Figure 6. Daily air temperature (highs and lows averaged) at Vize Island, Russia, in the northern Kara Sea (latitude 79°N) have cooled very little since August. The temperature on November 15 was close to freezing (32°F), compared to an average for the date of around -1°F. The island is experiencing some of the most extreme coastal erosion on Earth, as permafrost melts and stronger winds and waves reach the area. Image credit: Richard James, World Climate Service, via Brian Brettschneider, @Climatologist49.


Unusual cold and snow in Eurasia
The only place in the middle and high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere that’s been consistently cold and snowy this autumn is Eurasia (see Figure 4 above). It’s as if the hemisphere’s entire allotment of chilly, snowy weather has been rounded up and consigned to one area, albeit a big one. For this, we can credit or blame what’s called a “wave one” pattern, where the upper-level circulation around the North Pole is dominated by a single elongated loop, shunted in this case toward the Eurasian side. Although the cold in Eurasia hasn’t been enough to balance the warmth elsewhere, it’s been quite dramatic on its own terms. On November 9, Stockholm, Sweden, experienced its heaviest one-day November snowfall (39 cm or 15.4 inches) in records going back to 1904. Across Siberia, October produced what appears to be the greatest snow extent for the time of year since 1998, and some areas got record totals for so early in the season, according to a weather.com report. In central China’s Hubei province, hundreds of homes were damaged and thousands of power poles were brought down by heavy snow during the second week of November, according to Xinhua.

By comparison, the snows over North America have been paltry indeed. On November 15, only 0.2% of the entire contiguous U.S. was covered by snow, the lowest coverage for mid-November in at least 14 years.


Figure 7. A woman walks through a record-setting snowfall on November 9, 2016, in Sundbyberg, near Stockholm, Sweden. Image credit: Jonathan Nackstrand/AFP/Getty Images.

Autumn snow cover in the Northern Hemisphere: On the increase?
Overall, it appears there has been an increase in snow cover across the Northern Hemisphere during autumn in recent years. This tendency has been largely overshadowed by the much more distinct and dramatic loss of snow cover during the Northern Hemisphere spring, and there are some good reasons. For one, because there is so much more sunlight in spring versus autumn, the loss of spring snowcover would have a much bigger effect on Earth’s radiative balance than a corresponding gain in autumn snowcover. Still, the apparent autumn trend is worth noting, especially since it may be playing a role in winter weather across North America and Eurasia.


Figure 8. Monthly anomalies (departures from average) in snow cover extent across the Northern Hemisphere, in millions of square kilometers, for the months of (top to bottom) October, November, April, and May. Image credit: Rutgers Snow Lab.


The images at right paint the general picture. Based on NOAA satellite observations, snow cover has increased slightly across the Northern Hemisphere (NH) in autumn and decreased sharply during spring. For the period 1967 - 2012, the spring trends were statistically significant (March through June) whereas the autumn trends weren’t, according to the most recent assessment report (2013) from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Since that report came out, autumn snow extent has continued to run high across the Northern Hemisphere. The value for October 2016 was the third highest in the 51-year database, and the four prior Octobers were all well above the 1981-2010 average.

“The flakes have sure been flying in recent Octobers,” said David Robinson, state climatologist for New Jersey and leader of the Rutgers Snow Lab project. However, Robinson and other snow researchers I consulted still aren’t quite ready to classify the autumn increase as a significant trend. “My initial reaction is one of patience before being confident that there is a trend to identify,” said Robinson. “How many years that might take is the question.”

Complicating the task, ironically, is the improvement in satellite-based snow sensing technology over the years since 1967. In a 2013 paper titled “Is Eurasian October snow cover extent increasing?” (Environmental Research Letters), two scientists from Environment Canada, Ross Brown and Chris Derksen, presented evidence that the NOAA dataset was inconsistent with other sources of snow cover data for the period from 1982 to 2005, apparently due to improvements that allowed more early-season snow cover to be detected. After adjusting for this, the NOAA dataset showed a declining trend in Eurasian October snow cover through 2011, consistent with other datasets. Subsequent work along these lines has been carried out by Paul Kushner and Lawrence Mudryk (University of Toronto). “My conclusion from this is that the trends aren’t clear over the 1980s to early 2010s. I have not investigated the last few years,” Kushner told me.

A number of studies have pointed to the increasingly large expanse of open Arctic waters during autumn as a potential factor in producing heavier and/or more extensive snow cover. In particular, the open sections of the Karents and Bara seas provide a convenient source of moisture for early-season snowfall in adjacent Siberia. This is one of the key variables used to predict winter conditions across North America in the seasonal forecasting technique developed by Judah Cohen (Atmospheric and Environmental Research) and colleagues, as we discussed in an October 20 post. Importantly, Cohen’s technique doesn’t hinge on the presence of an increasingly snowy Eurasia, as Brown and Derksen point out: “The conclusion that October [snow cover extent] has not experienced significant increases over Eurasia in recent years does not undermine the arguments presented in Cohen et al (2012) linking Arctic moistening, Eurasian snow anomalies and extratropical winter cooling. This process depends on snow cover anomalies (not trends) and the physical processes involved in generating a strong surface cooling anomaly (albedo and surface temperature) depend on the areal extent and the depth of snow cover.”

In his weekly forecast update published on November 14, Cohen maintained that the above-average extent of snow this past October over Siberia should favor eventual disruption of the polar vortex and an enhanced chance of cold intrusions across Eurasia, possibly extending into eastern North America as we head into December and beyond.

We’ll be keeping an eye this weekend on slow-to-develop Invest 90L in the southwest Caribbean and will post updates as needed. See our post from earlier this morning for more details. Next week we’ll be covering the new GOES-R satellite, which at last check was scheduled to be launched at 5:42 pm EST Saturday. Sky and Telescope has details on how to watch the launch in person or online.

Have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson

Antarctic Arctic Sea Ice Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update Mr. Henson.
G lobal Climate Change Indicators

Introduction
Many lines of scientific evidence show the Earth's climate is changing. This page presents the latest information from several independent measures of observed climate change that illustrate an overwhelmingly compelling story of a planet that is undergoing global warming. It is worth noting that increasing global temperature is only one element of observed global climate change.

Precipitation patterns are also changing; storms and other extremes are changing as well.


😯
GEFS ans CMC show a storm in NE Caribbean. XD

Since not in NW Caribbean, then no interest :( especially from WKC LOL
FYI: Dominican Republic, especially North Coast, is facing some of its worst flooding in a decade or so. See floodlist.com article "Dominican Republic – 18,000 Remain Displaced by Floods, National Emergency Declared". More rain is in the forecast, and the situation in some areas is dire. Here in the DR, we are looking at a potential long term disaster to the local economy as many fields of crops are destroyed, people displaced, belongings destroyed, businesses closed, etc. Surprising how little coverage there is outside of the Caribbean.
Thank you, Mr. Henson, for this insight.

I'm pretty nervous, though, about the fact, that this post did nothing to prove or disprove my hypothesis about the Arctic Ocean halocline getting destroyed. Here's the figure 3 from yesterday's post:



I mean, the latest spike can be easily attributed to this weather pattern causing simultaneously warm air to flow into Arctic, and cold air into Eastern Europe, Kazakhstan etc. But the general "plateau-like" pattern, which existed last winter until Day 100, and has existed pretty much this autumn... has anyone been capable of attributing it to climate change-related continuous shift in atmospheric heat transfer?

Perhaps I should contact some climatologist personally. I don't know, whether such a professional would bother to react to a hypothesis, provided by a layperson. Especially since the hypothesis goes against prevailing view in many regional climate projections.
Jennifer Francis - Understanding the Jetstream - m

A short review of how the jetstream and Rossby waves work, and some emerging indications that the dynamics may be changing in a warming world.



Jennifer Francis is a research professor at Rutgers University's Institute of Marine and Coastal Sciences

Recent Publications and Projects

System over PR and Hispaniola may try to consolidate S in the NE Carib.

Windstorm coming to W Europe (FR, GB, NL...) tomorrow night, weather already a bit windy in France tonight. A pressure gradient steep enough - as currently forecast - to trigger relatively high winds & waves (max wind gust speed around 120 km/h in the Channel - GFS, max significant wave height around 7m in the Bay of Biscay), pressure at sea level bottoming at a respectable 975 hPa - still according to the GFS, on Nov 20. Barring a last-minute, unforeseen intensification, probably not "the" big winter storm though.
- From tropicaltidbits / Levi Cowan website :


* Wind gusts (GFS) - animation link from keraunos on twitter.
* And then stormy weather around the Mediterranean Sea - a "cevenol" episode beginning on Sunday 20 (high to very high precip totals, potentially triggering flash floods in Southern France near the Cevennes hills, the Med. Sea) - image link from keraunos on Twitter.
* A tilted jet stream forecast in the meantime - animation link from keraunos on twitter.
10. bwi
It's interesting to me that the big Hansen et. al. paper from last year (Wash Post article, full paper) predicted increased Antarctic sea ice due to reduce salinity as ice sheets melt and glaciers accelerate and their grounding lines retreat. (The Hansen paper also predicts the North Atlantic cold spot south and east of Greenland and Iceland, which seems to be verifying.)

So it seems possible to me that the Antarctic sea ice anomaly may just be an outlier related to the last year's super El Nino.

While Hansen's predictions are viewed as a bit farfetched or less likely by lots of serious climate researchers, he has been right before, and right long before the scientific community came into agreement. I take his scenario very seriously.
11. bwi
2015-2016 : * More polar temperature/sea ice feedbacks kicking in after El Nino fades. ** QBO disruption.
The North Pole is an insane 36 degrees warmer than normal as winter descends
The Washington Post - Nov 17/2016.
(...) The record-low sea ice extent and unprecedented warmth in the region fit in well with recent trends and portend even more profound changes in the coming years.
One of the earth's most regular climate cycles is disrupted
Met Office - Sept 8, 2016.
Scientists discover unprecedented atmospheric behaviour has disrupted one of world's the most repeatable atmospheric patterns. The normal flow of air high up in the atmosphere over the equator, known as the Quasi-Biennial Oscillation (QBO), was seen to break down earlier this year. These winds in the The stratosphere are found high above the tropics, their direction and strength changes in a regular two-to three-year cycle which provides forecasters with an indication of what weather to expect in Northern Europe.
Odd recent evolution of the QBO
NOAA - Posted on October 8th, 2016 in Isaac Held's Blog.
Was the strong El Nino in part responsible for the unusual QBO behavior this past year? Was this behavior predictable, say, a few months in advance? Could it be telling us something about subtle trends in the stratospheric circulation that allow more extratropical influence on the equatorial winds?

El Nino/East Pac.- December 06/2015 - Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly (http://earth.nullschool.net/).
Thank You Mr. Henson.....................Great summary of the ice issues and  I have never seen a rocket launch from the Cape; seriously considering grabbing my 15 year old and driving her to the beach near the Cape from Tally tomorrow to see the launch.......................A "two-fer" for me never seeing a launch and being able to see the next-gen Goes go up.
Quoting 7. Xandra:



Actually, that video perfectly illustrates, why I don't think atmospheric heat transfer is in key part in making Arctic warmer now. So, let me vandalise the graph in comment #6:



This is what I would expect, if slower and larger meanders of jet stream were to blame. In average, the temperature would be somewhat above average. But at other times, those meanders would be situated in such a manner to bring above-average amounts of Siberian air to the North Pole, and at times, the temperature would plunge to below-average.

I like that the unusually cold weather in Eurasia has been brought up in the blog topic. Many of us who follow global temperatures have been talking about this cold area in Eurasia for weeks. It's been a very stubborn pattern that seems like it just doesn't want to end.

It kind of reminds me of when the "Polar Vortex" setup over the Great Lakes and Eastern U.S. a few years ago. The Great Lakes were almost completely frozen over.
While at the same time, most of the Northern Hemisphere was experiencing above average temperatures.

Quoting 1. Patrap:



Loks like an update may be coming Pat:
Do you think the vast wild fires in Northern Canada trapped heat in causing the abnormal high mean temperatures?
Here is the link for up to a 20 day animation for the polar jet; if you set it for the 20 day period leading up to today, you can see a very uniform and relatively straight line flow below Continental Eurasia and various breaks over the North Pacific and North Atlantic allowing some warmer air flow from the lower latitudes up towards the Arctic regions:

http://squall.sfsu.edu/scripts/nhemjetstream_mode l.html


"The normalized value of global sea ice area as of November 17, 2016, was so far from any other total in the 37-year record that it represented a departure of about 8 standard deviations below the average!"

8 Standard Deviations?

Hello?
Quoting 17. pjmwx:

Do you think the vast wild fires in Northern Canada trapped heat in causing the abnormal high mean temperatures?


No.
Quoting 19. MontanaZephyr:

"The normalized value of global sea ice area as of November 17, 2016, was so far from any other total in the 37-year record that it represented a departure of about 8 standard deviations below the average!"

8 Standard Deviations?

Hello?


This is common in short time series with a lot of low frequency variation in the real population. THe standard deviation adjusts much larger once one of these events occurs.

Most short time series of meteorological parameters underestimate the true variance.
Quoting 16. pingon:


Loks like an update may be coming Pat:


This is what happens when you try to cut the heads off hydras.
Quoting 17. pjmwx:

Do you think the vast wild fires in Northern Canada trapped heat in causing the abnormal high mean temperatures?


Compared to normal insolation and the vast heat stores that have built up in the oceans, a wildfire is little more than a match in a solar flare. :)
Quoting 6. elioe:

Thank you, Mr. Henson, for this insight.

I'm pretty nervous, though, about the fact, that this post did nothing to prove or disprove my hypothesis about the Arctic Ocean halocline getting destroyed. Here's the figure 3 from yesterday's post:



I mean, the latest spike can be easily attributed to this weather pattern causing simultaneously warm air to flow into Arctic, and cold air into Eastern Europe, Kazakhstan etc. But the general "plateau-like" pattern, which existed last winter until Day 100, and has existed pretty much this autumn... has anyone been capable of attributing in to climate change-related continuous shift in atmospheric heat transfer?

Perhaps I should contact some climatologist personally. I don't know, whether such a professional would bother to react to a hypothesis, provided by a layperson. Especially since the hypothesis goes against prevailing view in many regional climate projections.


I had thought that you had come to the agreement that your hypothesis would be the result of feedback and not as an initiator of the current global warming trend. Where are you trying to go with this? Are you merely trying to say that there is a feedback that has not yet been considered (very plausible) and that this feedback has already shown itself (again, plausible)? I am a layman as well and I am trying to understand where you are going with this. It is already known that the loss of sea ice will reduce the albedo of the planet and thus further stimulate the warming that is currently happening. Any process that reduces the amount of sea ice available will have a warming influence on the global climate but, as with the ENSO, the process that you describe would work within the heat content that is available to it in the oceans. Your process would not create nor destroy heat energy. Do you have any evidence that this would not be correct and that the Laws of Thermodynamics are seriously flawed? What am I missing here?
Quoting 14. elioe:



Actually, that video perfectly illustrates, why I don't think atmospheric heat transfer is in key part in making Arctic warmer now.


You are thinking far to linear, the lower atmosphere is a nonlinear dynamical system. Changes in such a system are also mostly nonlinear, because these changes are not dependent on one or two factors, but a multitude of factors, with different scales of influences. More and more energy is available in the Cryosphere and it isn't one factor forcing these changes, it is a very delicate ballet of factors with positive and negative feedback cycles which are driving these changes. A factor doesn't have to be huge to influence dynamical behavior in a nonlinear dynamical system, causality is different in such a system. Small changes can have huge implication in such a system.

The pattern you see for the temperature scale of the Arctic is influenced by synoptic pattern that bring warm air into the Arctic. A low pressure system brought a decline to the Atlantic side of the ice pack in resent days. Here an animation from A Team from the Arctic Sea Ice Forum:

Source

Maybe you should start with the assumption that the people who working in this field are smarter than you and me and know what they are talking about once in a while.

Quoting 10. bwi:

It's interesting to me that the big Hansen et. al. paper from last year (Wash Post article, full paper) predicted increased Antarctic sea ice due to reduce salinity as ice sheets melt and glaciers accelerate and their grounding lines retreat. (The Hansen paper also predicts the North Atlantic cold spot south and east of Greenland and Iceland, which seems to be verifying.)

So it seems possible to me that the Antarctic sea ice anomaly may just be an outlier related to the last year's super El Nino.

While Hansen's predictions are viewed as a bit farfetched or less likely by lots of serious climate researchers, he has been right before, and right long before the scientific community came into agreement. I take his scenario very seriously.

I respect Dr. Hansen quite a bit. It's not only because he's one of the most experienced climatologists we have, he's an outspoken climate advocate, who encourages us to consider the kind of messed up planet we are on track to leave our grandchildren.

I think having that kind of concern for our future has given him the courage and conviction to forecast more extreme climate changes than the vast majority of his colleagues are willing to do. The fact that his colleagues are more conservative makes complete sense because "extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence". Even amidst our recent extraordinary weather events, it can seem insurmountably difficult to come up with solid evidence for a causal chain that yields specific future events - mostly due to the vast complexity and nonlinearity of our climate system.

Although the drop in Antarctic sea ice extent may be a temporary fluctuation associated with El Nino, there is an outside chance we're seeing a shift to a longer term trend of diminishing Antarctic sea ice. Does this shift mean that Dr. Hansen was wrong? Perhaps to some extent, but the basic physics of his work is quite sound, and we are already seeing the profound ways in which increasing heat trapped under a fresher water lens and sea ice is eroding the base of Antarctic glaciers at an accelerating rate.

Unfortunately, if the outside chance of a diminishing antarctic sea ice trend comes to pass, then the extra fresh water from melting glaciers is not enough to offset the global heat forcing that is injecting itself into the Antarctic, and that in itself could be much more disturbing than Hansen's previous extraordinary claims. With the majority of climatologists and the IPCC consistently underestimating the speed and nature of climate changes, shouldn't we start erring on the side of extraordinary claims? The stakes are way too high for us not to.

What is the worst that can happen? We'd have to break down barriers that separate our scientific and corporate communities, so individual scientists or groups of them will have to work together and increase their collective climate intelligence. We'd have to mobilize at many levels, devoting more super computers, and creating vast new carbon neutral or negative industries. We've mobilized in a similar way during world wars, so it is not beyond our reach by any means. The biggest difference now is that we can do it not just to survive the threat of war, but to create a whole new way to thrive in cooperation with our magnificently complex and living planetary system.

Some may say i'm a dreamer, and yet the kind of positive dream i'm talking about is rapidly becoming our only real way forward.
Quoting 6. elioe:

Thank you, Mr. Henson, for this insight.

I'm pretty nervous, though, about the fact, that this post did nothing to prove or disprove my hypothesis about the Arctic Ocean halocline getting destroyed. Here's the figure 3 from yesterday's post:



I mean, the latest spike can be easily attributed to this weather pattern causing simultaneously warm air to flow into Arctic, and cold air into Eastern Europe, Kazakhstan etc. But the general "plateau-like" pattern, which existed last winter until Day 100, and has existed pretty much this autumn... has anyone been capable of attributing it to climate change-related continuous shift in atmospheric heat transfer?

Perhaps I should contact some climatologist personally. I don't know, whether such a professional would bother to react to a hypothesis, provided by a layperson. Especially since the hypothesis goes against prevailing view in many regional climate projections.


I think the Arctic Ocean Halocline is much more solid than you think. The water underneath it is dense and salty and the water above it won't mix through unless it becomes salty enough to become as dense. Cooling alone won't do it, cool water below 4C becomes LESS dense, a very unusual property of the liquid H20 state. Even more remarkable, the SOLID is less dense than the liquid so once it cools to the melting/freezing point, it freezes and absolutely will not sink then.


The only two ways to break the halocline are to add an enormous amount of salt or transport the less salty layer above out of the Arctic ocean.. the latter effect would cause the halocline to rise and (eventually) surface. I do not know enough about the dynamics of the Arctic ocean to know if changes in atmospheric circulation (which drives the ocean through wind stress) could do this.

The halocline could be weakened by reducing the inflow of fresh water into the Arctic Ocean. One geoengineering project with that side effect is damming of the three northward flowing Russian rivers that empty into the Arctic Ocean but a climate change that made Northeastern Eurasia more arid could also do it.
Did anyone else see the weird tropical cyclone like system that comes out of a tail of cold front on the gfs earlier today?


http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gf s/2016111812/gfs_z700_vort_us_41.png
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 7h
A large fraction of DC area is now officially in a drought

We are now in a moderate drought here in D.C.If we don't see rainier days in December it will only get worse from here on out.
Quoting 29. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 7h
A large fraction of DC area is now officially in a drought

We are now in a moderate drought here in D.C.If we don't see rainier days in December it will only get worse from here on out.


I had to water my rental garden with buckets from a nearby spring (hard work!.. put down 120 gallons). This is a frequent summer chore but it's the first November (and second time THIS November) I've ever had to do it.

Spinach growth was definitely slowed by dryness before I caught on. Plants didn't wilt but looked dull and grew more slowly than one would expect from the temperatures we've had.

The heat signal in my fall garden is very solid. Most stuff is two to three weeks late because of forced delays in planting in September.
Quoting 29. washingtonian115:

Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 7h
A large fraction of DC area is now officially in a drought

We are now in a moderate drought here in D.C.If we don't see rainier days in December it will only get worse from here on out.


The worst winter I remember for drought here was 2001-2002. THe soil didn't soak and get muddy ALL WINTER.

what an update lots to digest with this one
lots of reading excellent entry as always
thanks have a great weekend
Thanks for the new diligent blog post about stunning climate anomalies, Bob.

Here a little collection of some more (mostly) arctic weather news:

Greenland's Getting Warmer, But Farmers There Are Struggling More Than Ever
By Eli Kintisch • Nov 17, 2016
... [A] severe drought has struck Greenland in two of the past five years and recently published research suggests the trend may continue because of large scale changes in Arctic weather systems. ...

Climate change limits access to subsistence resources
By JEFF RICHARDSON, November 17, 2016
(SitNews) - Climate change is creating a variety of new obstacles for Alaska subsistence hunters, but access — not threats to wildlife — is perceived as the biggest challenge, according to a recent study. ...

Mass reindeer deaths if no early warning system for 'climate change' freak freezes
By The Siberian Times reporter, 17 November 2016
New study predicts potential crises for herds after examining 81,000 animal losses after Yamal was carpeted with winter-long impenetrable ice.

Obama puts Arctic Ocean off limits for drilling in last-ditch barrier to Trump
US Department of the Interior says ‘fragile and unique’ Arctic ecosystem at risk if drilling allowed, possibly by pro-fossil fuels Trump administration
The Guardian, Oliver Milman in New York, Friday 18 November 2016 19.14 GMT

Trump, Thule and America’s uncertain Arctic future
ANALYSIS While Donald Trump has shown little interest in the Arctic, his position on other issues could have a major impact on America’s relationship with Greenland
Arctic Journal, November 18, 2016 - 1:08pm

Trump's other wall: is his Irish resort a sign he believes in climate change?
Before he set sights on Mexico, Donald Trump had his eyes on a wall to protect his luxury golf resort. Does it suggest he recognizes effects of global warming?
Caelainn Hogan, Thursday 17 November 2016 13.12 GMT

Quoting 24. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



You are missing almost everything. Yes, this is a feedback. This doesn't violate the laws of thermodynamics. Energy gets neither created nor destroyed. But already, in the Arctic Ocean, there is some 10 GJ/m² of heat, which would get released, if the entire water column was to cool down to freezing point. As such, any such release of heat is a transient phenomenon.

Quoting 25. ChrisHamburg:

Maybe you should start with the assumption that the people who working in this field are smarter than you and me and know what they are talking about once in a while.


All that you said before that sentence, is very well known to me, thank you. And indeed, I started with this assumption originally. But you know what? Even if they may be professionals, they are not prophets. They can err, they are not infallible. The knowledge of the laws of physics is not their divine privilege. If you have something to really refute what I say, please do so. I haven't found anything to refute it either. But I will not simply shut up due to being formally an amateur.

Quoting 27. georgevandenberghe:
Cooling alone won't do it, cool water below -4C becomes LESS dense, a very unusual property of the liquid H20 state.


You obviously mean +4C. But it applies only to fresh water.



This graph shows common density values for temperature and salinity. Density given as kg/m³ by adding 1000 to the density index. Typical surface layer density at freezing point is 1026.3, typical deep, warm water density at 1027.8. The difference is lot less than the density difference of deep water and surface layer in tropics; yet, wind is capable of mixing those two in long term to keep a stationary depth for thermocline, despite net rising motion.
winter storm argos
In particular, the open sections of the Karents and Bara seas provide a convenient source of moisture for early-season snowfall



oopsie daisies
Bird excrement may be cooling the Arctic
November 16, 2016 by Bob Yirka
... The researchers are not suggesting that coaxing more birds to migrate to the Artic each year might slow melting of the ice, but they do suggest their work highlights just how complex our global ecosystem actually is, and how many factors contribute to its current state.

Strange things happen in our world, lol. Have a nice weekend, everyone!
Thanks for the update Mr. Henson....
Sea level is rising, but the biggest immediate concern for people living on the coast is erosion. Erosion can literally eat an entire barrier island in a short period of time if you let it.

Here in my area beaches are constantly replenished (or rebuilt) with new sand. Sometimes the sand is brought in on trucks to the beach and some times the sand is dredged or sucked up from just off shore and pumped back to the beach.
Then the rise in sea level will just compound the problem. With each storm, the water level will get slightly higher.
But beach erosion is a serious problem that most coastal communities are constantly fighting.


From Climate Crocks:

Could Arctic Sea Ice be Simple?

[...]

New research is cutting through the confusion on disappearing Arctic sea ice by replacing complex computer models with simple math that links everyday activities to the health of Earth’s climate regulator.

“It might just be rather simple,” said Julienne Stroeve, senior scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado and professor at University College London.

Her paper, published Thursday in Science magazine, outlines an easy-to-understand relationship between increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the slow vanishing of summer sea ice in the North.

For every new tonne of CO2 that enters the atmosphere, says the paper, the southern edge of the sea ice loses another three square metres. That’s it.

Or, in the words of the paper: “The 30-year running mean of monthly mean September Arctic sea-ice area is almost linearly related to cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions.”

The direct relationship between greenhouse gases and sea-ice retreat has been pointed out before. Stroeve and her co-author Dirk Notz, of Germany’s Max Planck Institute, have put hard numbers to it and explained how it works.

In a stable ice pack, the warming effect of infrared radiation generated by the sun is balanced by cold temperatures in the atmosphere. But increasing levels of carbon dioxide prevent those infrared rays from escaping into space.

As a result, the ice retreats northward where there’s less solar radiation.

“The ice is migrating to re-establish equilibrium,” said Stroeve.

[...]

Complete blog post >>

Yep, sea level rise, land subsidence and storm variability. A double whammy in many cases when you take into account the resulting coastal erosion ...

Before and After Photos: SE Beach Dunes Lost to Hurricane Matthew - USGS - Oct 31.

Report - Encroaching Tides : How Sea Level Rise and Tidal Flooding Threaten U.S. East and Gulf Coast Communities over the Next 30 Years (w/ video) - Union of Concerned Scientists, 2014.
"An analysis of 52 tide gauges in communities stretching from Portland, Maine to Freeport, Texas shows that most of these communities will experience a steep increase in the number and severity of tidal flooding events over the coming decades, with significant implications for property, infrastructure, and daily life in affected areas. Given the substantial and nearly ubiquitous rise in the frequency of floods at these 52 locations, many other communities along the East and Gulf Coasts will need to brace for similar changes."

Australia : Danger from extreme storms and high seas to rise - Phys.org - June 2016.
"It's now clear that sea level rise is not the only player in climate change: shifts in storm patterns and wave direction also have consequences, and distort or amplify the natural variability of coastal patterns," Harley said. Turner added, "These are precisely the conditions we experienced in Sydney over the past weekend-waves from the north-east, combined with unusually high sea levels brought on by king tides wreaked considerable damage. And, as sea levels rise, even ordinary tides will reach higher. What we consider king high tides today will be commonplace within decades."
43. bwi
Quoting 26. VibrantPlanet:


Although the drop in Antarctic sea ice extent may be a temporary fluctuation associated with El Nino, there is an outside chance we're seeing a shift to a longer term trend of diminishing Antarctic sea ice. Does this shift mean that Dr. Hansen was wrong? Perhaps to some extent, but the basic physics of his work is quite sound, and we are already seeing the profound ways in which increasing heat trapped under a fresher water lens and sea ice is eroding the base of Antarctic glaciers at an accelerating rate.

Unfortunately, if the outside chance of a diminishing antarctic sea ice trend comes to pass, then the extra fresh water from melting glaciers is not enough to offset the global heat forcing that is injecting itself into the Antarctic, and that in itself could be much more disturbing than Hansen's previous extraordinary claims. With the majority of climatologists and the IPCC consistently underestimating the speed and nature of climate changes, shouldn't we start erring on the side of extraordinary claims? The stakes are way too high for us not to.


Agreed, and well said.
44. bwi
Euro breaks down the Arctic temp anomaly by ten days; GFS keeps it in place. (Not precisely the same measure, which could make a difference I suppose.)

Quoting 40. Sfloridacat5:


But beach erosion is a serious problem that most coastal communities are constantly fighting.





Simple solution... don't live on land that the sea wants to reclaim....duh...
All I can say is that with everything going on in the world, I'm glad I'm on my way out and not on my way in. What do I have left, another two or three hundreds years, maybe. I guess we will have to move from our home in about 70 years if the predictions are right. It was just like the 1300's and 1400's. I just couldn't wait for the 100 Years War to end.
I really think the record setting nature of singular events leads to misreads. Snow and ice records to the up and down may occur and seemingly have occurred. The tale is in the number of high temp related records compared to low temp related records on a annual basis. And couple that with a record number of extreme events of both kinds up and down, flood and drought, cold and hot, and you have the result of AGW. A climate out of control.

The trend is what is missing in the reporting. Singular events like arctic sea ice amounts, tend to lead apprehension of this thing incorrectly. Deep water stream flows disruption, increased frozen precip in a more humid (but still below freezing) world whose air tends to be more able to carry moisture and you have your answer. Will not several northern areas tend to be cooler as a result for one of gulf stream disruption,….seems so. But overall globally the trend is warmer, water temperature and air.

It is a bit complex. But given a chance with good reporting the public can and will grasp the concept. Singular event reporting is bound to be filled with gaps and misreads.
Mary Robinson: Worst Refugee Crisis Since WWII Driven in Part by Climate Change

(Democracynow.org)

Link
Quoting 47. ronnm:

... And couple that with a record number of extreme events of both kinds up and down, flood and drought, cold and hot, and you have the result of AGW. A climate out of control...


Known climates of our Earth are massive ice ages, ice 2 miles deep over North America, subtropical forests growing above the arctic circle. The climate we have now is just one kind of climate and you can't really describe it objectively as being out of control.
Regarding comment 48, to elaborate. Multiply the number of our current world population, with the number of peoples by percentage that live at our within several feet of sea level. Add into that the percentage of that number, times the number of nations populations that have not the slighest ability to build dikes or other wise prepare for this thing(like Bangladesh).

And by my take you are still left with not millions but billions of inevitable AGW refugees.
We do simply not see that coming,nor the consequences of that. It spells complete devolvement of civilization as we know it by my read. Each nation fighting one against another and internally just to stay afloat(pardon the pun).
Regarding 49 no sorry no. Humans or something close to human has existed for quite some time. However the explosion of human populations is a relatively recent occurance. This increase corrosponds with a relatively stable climate. Sure there are ups and down and some occur annually. But the amount of ups and down currently have never been found in the record of climate history(which is comparatively a short history compared to the existance of human). Extreme events as they call them.

To clarify. Climate has always existed with much variance. However our recording of actual events within this history is like our populations increase, recent, very recent anthropologically. The two things sort of correspond. Our populations gross increase and the recording of climatological events. I would say about
1100 or so Ad is the best we can come up with in even isolated rare geographies any sort of verifiable record keeping(excludeing very rare incidents of record keeping). Any sort of real recording keeping for the majority of habitable places probably by mid 1800's to my view. Uniform record keeping in some habitable places maybe as far back as 1600's, in isolation back to the 1100's. But mostly places like America 1800's by majority.

In that period of time we can safely say the climate has never been this extreme. Glaciers and this and that in unrecorded climatological historical times Sure. But also when humans were a by population a minor specie, or before the addition of the specie at all.
This blip of stability is just that, a blip. Nothing supposes the past beyond the record keeping, was stable, or as stable as it was prior to about five or so years ago.

Peoples recording of records before 1100 or so was like science. Not so much what was recordable or observable but how one felt about things. Like as depicted in the recording of the great flood of Noah. How much rain fell when and where we have no idea. A flood occurred that we know.

I hold with the camp that supposes AGW will not eliminate human population. It will just reduce them eventually over time to levels equaling those found prior. In times when the climate was not so rarely stable. Humans are very durable and have survived climatological variances of great extremes. Just not so many of them have survived. Stable climate is a large part(not all) of the why to our ability to grossly populate in recent times.
Looks to be getting a little bit less extreme sometimes next week, temperature anomaly-wise in the Arctic Ocean and especially in N Russia. Arctic temp anomaly 7-day forecast & hindcast - GFS, reference Nov 18, 18z (Note the very high values for the Arctic Ocean on the left, 6.4 & 7.3 K compared to climatology for 1981-2010 reference period) :

Source: karstenhaustein.com
Does the gfs still show the weird storm that sort of pops out of no where?

Edit: Well, I answered my own question with the following.




The only difference is that it seems to evolve from an alberta clipper like storm.
Quoting 53. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Does the gfs still show the weird storm that sort of pops out of no where?



What?
Another graph to illustrate what's going on at the top of the world:

Click for a larger, interactive, animated version:
Quoting 54. KoritheMan:



What?

It is a very vague question. I found my answer but i want to know what that is.
57. V26R
Quoting 50. ronnm:

Regarding comment 48, to elaborate. Multiply the number of our current world population, with the number of peoples by percentage that live at our within several feet of sea level. Add into that the percentage of that number, times the number of nations populations that have not the slighest ability to build dikes or other wise prepare for this thing(like Bangladesh.



WOW!
I got 13!
Regarding post 57. It is simply not affordable not politically expedient for places like Bangladesh Burma the Phillipines and many other countries, (to numerous to mention) to build infrastructure or relocate populations internally to combat the inevitable flooding and salination of crop lands that will occur. Simply they don't have the money.

The US most of Europe China yes. But the rest of the world that cannot afford that, will by necessity, locate to those places that can. And most of the worlds populations increases are occurring in those parts of the world not ours.

For comparison probably 2 million or so emigrated out of Syria a drought condition compounded by religious and internal and external political strife. And we see how catastrophic that has been, in effect upon the European politic. Imagine 2 Billion. 2 Billion would be really low balling it by my count. But for this discussion it may suffice. Could our civilization survive that?

Or perhaps you think that number is way to high? I cannot see that it is anything but way to low.
In any event could we globally survive that civilization intact? I say no we would devolve into religious extremes war starvation eventually finding very rare isolated pockets of human advanced civilization. being the only remaining vistages of civilization as we know it now.
Perhaps scale abstracted as things were 2000 or so years ago. More peoples of course. But most living a animal like existence. Some rarely being still somewhat advanced. Emphesis being on rare.
Quoting 57. V26R:


WOW!
I got 13!
I got confused...
To add, the 2 billion of refugees (if it is anything close to that low a number) will be attempting to relocate to nations that are suffering not the gross overt effects of climate change, the obviious flooding and salination of crop lands on costal areas to nations that are suffering the covert effects of this thing.

America for instance will likely eventually devolve climate wise to permenant dust bowl conditions in our crop growing areas. All things considered this a rich nation with the greatest of resources and technology may survive that. But add into that the influx of hundreds of millions of climate refugees from south and central america and one begins to see the scope of the challenge. Will a barely making it America be able to accomodate those peoples?

Will a America home of the free land of the brave be America that which accomodates those changes?
I say not. Likley it will devolve into independent states over time becoming nations by geographical part. But even if it remains as a nation of states will it not become less free and open to accommodate the increased pressure upon its very existence? If it survives it will not be a America with the American values we know of today. Donald Trump will seem to be the most liberal of peoples over time. Necessity will force protectionism and extreme nationalism upon us.

Keep in mind Trumpism is by the grosses of estimates, in response to 10 million or so considered illegals. Consider perhaps what will be the response to 100 million illegals when that day comes. AGw guarantees they are coming. When is the only question. Walls will not keep them out. Hate to say it, but violent mobs of vigilantes perhaps disguised under the cloak of law enforcement may however. But what will that make us become?

Will we recognize or abscribe to the values of that future America?
61. V26R
"Or perhaps you think that number is way to high? I cannot see that it is anything but way to low."


You're right! I got 68 the second time I did it!
Most of the world by population lives very close to starvation. They remain a blip or two above it but just barely. We largly in the west know it not nor of it. But by population that most is at least in the range of 4 billion or so. Depending on how one calculates it we may go as high as 6 billion. Looking at a real computation of per capita income abstracting aberrations such as the additions of a Bill Gates or equilivent(who holds wealth equal to most of the lower income peoples in America and by such virtue of such wealth abnormally drives the number upward) . REal per capita income globally is a abysmal low number.

Yes the vast majority of wealth is held by a very low number of peoples. Most are close to starving or a paycheck away.

When push comes to shove and it is stay and starve or leave and chance it like in Syria. Leave they will.
AGW will tilt that close to into actualization.
Quoting 60. ronnm:





send them to Canada
its the second largest landmass on the planet and we could make cities for every nation on earth
their own little working sample based upon the green enviro-friendly self reliant green energy hub of economic unity force interconnected with a vast array of high speed solar power transportation communications teleconnections working a futuristic super nation of the future.

the imagination is unlimited
Keeper, the Canadians will have no part of that. If one looks at immigration standards of Canada it is clear. They have a point based system. That system virtually removes from consideration anyone over 45 and anyone without a college degree. A HS degree one finds in America gives one a zero in education qualification which is a principal point category.
.Refugees are not those on the high end of the ladder. They are the low end.

CANADA generally they accept peoples who are educated hard working with qualifications. Most Americans who say they will leave to Canada in regards to Trump it is so sad. Canada would not have about 95% of them. Age over 45 being a zero point catagory as well. I forget the actual dollar amount but it is something like 2 million or so cash or quilivent to abstract the point system of legal residency.

Generally we know nothing about other nations qualifications for legal residency.
To add Syrians and all that. There is a special catagory of consideration from those fleeing political instability. But that is strictly determined by the will of the politic of the moment and is not considered to be a part of the system of establishment of permenant residency. Those numbers of allowance may vary greatly depending upon exactly how many they consider able to be absorbed without detriment.

Your media has you knowing nothing of their requirements of residency qualification. All they tell you is the sight crashed when Trump won. That they will not have you says a bit more than that. But they will not tell you that fact.
Canada is not only the 2nd largest nation by landmass its also the most sparsely populated as well it would have no problem housing 5 or 6 billion people maybe more and think of the make work project

Canada the universal nation a nation for all mankind

sorta like an ark I guess
never underestimate the power of people and the human race all we need is a little guidance and everything else will come together

unity is power raw power I don't want to get up on that soapbox I may take over the world.


and beside my misses all ready warned me don't do it I don't want to live like that she is not one for attention.
Keeper the reason for the age restriction is because of health care. They do not want Americans seeing old age and with subpar health care to relocate there and take advantage of their universal health care.

If they enact legislation to stop peoples from taking use of even health care what do you think will be their response to locating grossly immigrants from other countries in numbers which would certainly make them, not Canadians,the majority?

Despite the health care, canadians are not a very liberal people. Tar sands and all that, they are not necessarily even minorally progrssive in environmental issues They are more global than liberal, hence the health care. So they would have to be forced to that. Who would do the forcing?

I am not against it nor for it. Certainly I respect jewry as having the finest of people amongst them. But think the last time the world collectively created a nation within a existant nation. It was Israel. And a small nation with a small amount of peoples compared to this.

Notice any problems with that solution?
Quoting 55. Neapolitan:

Another graph to illustrate what's going on at the top of the world:

Click for a larger, interactive, animated version:





I heard the king tides in FL were not quite as high as last year, which is good. If it's not quite as big as a king tide, maybe we can call it

The Prince's Tide

bring a standard of right from the ashes of terrible wrongs
Quoting 55. Neapolitan:

Another graph to illustrate what's going on at the top of the world:

Click for a larger, interactive, animated version:



Neapolitan, better kiss your ice goodbye.
re the invest........it just wasn't a region that could support it as I projected and unless many things change we are in for a living hell down here along with other similar areas
Ice-free Hudson's Bay on November 17th. I don't think Hudson's Bay has been ice-free so late in the fall before. I wonder if central and northern Quebec has been warmer and snowier than normal this fall.

Quoting 71. BaltimoreBrian:



Neapolitan, better kiss your ice goodbye.
going going going ...
Quoting 73. BaltimoreBrian:

Ice-free Hudson's Bay on November 17th. I don't think Hudson's Bay has been ice-free so late in the fall before. I wonder if central and northern Quebec has been warmer and snowier than normal this fall.


snowier not yet but it will be everywhere down wind from open waters
19N81W, what did you tell us? Anyway 90L has more convection than yesterday but is still disorganized.

Keeper the canadians will simply not have it. God or bad right or wrong they are canadians and put canada first the rest second.

I agree with them. Most all nations are the same in that regard. My solution is to enrich the third world so they may do the things necessary to keep their peoples where they are. But this is not about my solution. My solution is firmly rejected by all that are not of that third world category.
Quoting 72. 19N81W:

re the invest........it just wasn't a region that could support it as I projected and unless many things change we are in for a living hell down here along with other similar areas
ya the equatorial regions will likely become uninhabitable regions as the warming continues and the entire zone goes to a semi arid desert like state but the positive is the Sahara will re-green again
Kuujjuarapik. Umiujaq. Kuujjuaq. Kangiqsualujjuaq.

That could get this guy a job over there.
Quoting 81. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya the equatorial regions will likely become uninhabitable regions as the warming continues and the entire zone goes to a semi arid desert like state but the positive is the Sahara will re-green again


Quoting 82. BaltimoreBrian:

Kuujjuarapik. Umiujaq. Kuujjuaq. Kangiqsualujjuaq.

That could get this guy a job over there.


Oh, Inuktitut and Greenlandic are easy to pronounce. :)

Actually, it's English that is hard to pronounce.

I kind of would like to become a climate refugee in Nunavut or Greenland. Ergative-absolutive language, combined with verbs inflected according to both subject and object, seems fascinating.
Quoting 84. elioe:



Oh, Inuktitut and Greenlandic are easy to pronounce. :)

Actually, it's English that is hard to pronounce.

In American English the problem isn't so much pronunciation as it is an inability to stop talking. ;-)
Quoting 63. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



send them to Canada
its the second largest landmass on the planet and we could make cities for every nation on earth
their own little working sample based upon the green enviro-friendly self reliant green energy hub of economic unity force interconnected with a vast array of high speed solar power transportation communications teleconnections working a futuristic super nation of the future.

the imagination is unlimited


But just how many millions will Canada be able to feed?
Quoting 41. Xandra:

From Climate Crocks:

Could Arctic Sea Ice be Simple?

[...]

New research is cutting through the confusion on disappearing Arctic sea ice by replacing complex computer models with simple math that links everyday activities to the health of Earth’s climate regulator.

“It might just be rather simple,” said Julienne Stroeve, senior scientist at the National Snow and Ice Data Center in Colorado and professor at University College London.

Her paper, published Thursday in Science magazine, outlines an easy-to-understand relationship between increasing levels of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere and the slow vanishing of summer sea ice in the North.

For every new tonne of CO2 that enters the atmosphere, says the paper, the southern edge of the sea ice loses another three square metres. That’s it.

Or, in the words of the paper: “The 30-year running mean of monthly mean September Arctic sea-ice area is almost linearly related to cumulative anthropogenic CO2 emissions.”

The direct relationship between greenhouse gases and sea-ice retreat has been pointed out before. Stroeve and her co-author Dirk Notz, of Germany’s Max Planck Institute, have put hard numbers to it and explained how it works.

In a stable ice pack, the warming effect of infrared radiation generated by the sun is balanced by cold temperatures in the atmosphere. But increasing levels of carbon dioxide prevent those infrared rays from escaping into space.

As a result, the ice retreats northward where there’s less solar radiation.

“The ice is migrating to re-establish equilibrium,” said Stroeve.

[...]

Complete blog post >>



Watched an intesting PBS Nova show about the earth's magnetic field weakening, and that it may be normal for this weakening to occur prior to a magnetic pole reversal. So, I can't help but to wonder; could this weakening of the magnetic field play a part in the melting? It's the earth's magnetic field that protects us from solar radiation.
You forgot to include the time when the pyramids were built. I think around 4000 years ago. Where did all these people go?

Quoting 51. ronnm:

Regarding 49 no sorry no. Humans or something close to human has existed for quite some time. However the explosion of human populations is a relatively recent occurance. This increase corrosponds with a relatively stable climate. Sure there are ups and down and some occur annually. But the amount of ups and down currently have never been found in the record of climate history(which is comparatively a short history compared to the existance of human). Extreme events as they call them.

To clarify. Climate has always existed with much variance. However our recording of actual events within this history is like our populations increase, recent, very recent anthropologically. The two things sort of correspond. Our populations gross increase and the recording of climatological events. I would say about
1100 or so Ad is the best we can come up with in even isolated rare geographies any sort of verifiable record keeping(excludeing very rare incidents of record keeping). Any sort of real recording keeping for the majority of habitable places probably by mid 1800's to my view. Uniform record keeping in some habitable places maybe as far back as 1600's, in isolation back to the 1100's. But mostly places like America 1800's by majority.

In that period of time we can safely say the climate has never been this extreme. Glaciers and this and that in unrecorded climatological historical times Sure. But also when humans were a by population a minor specie, or before the addition of the specie at all.
This blip of stability is just that, a blip. Nothing supposes the past beyond the record keeping, was stable, or as stable as it was prior to about five or so years ago.

Peoples recording of records before 1100 or so was like science. Not so much what was recordable or observable but how one felt about things. Like as depicted in the recording of the great flood of Noah. How much rain fell when and where we have no idea. A flood occurred that we know.

I hold with the camp that supposes AGW will not eliminate human population. It will just reduce them eventually over time to levels equaling those found prior. In times when the climate was not so rarely stable. Humans are very durable and have survived climatological variances of great extremes. Just not so many of them have survived. Stable climate is a large part(not all) of the why to our ability to grossly populate in recent times.
RIP Sharon Jones lucky to see her show before she got sick.
Build it and they will come!

Quoting 78. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Quoting 34. elioe:

All that you said before that sentence, is very well known to me, thank you. And indeed, I started with this assumption originally. But you know what? Even if they may be professionals, they are not prophets. They can err, they are not infallible. The knowledge of the laws of physics is not their divine privilege.

Same applies to you, elioe.
And just a few hundred miles south of the ice free Hudson bay we have the still quite warm Great Lakes. Even with the temperature finally dropping towards seasonal levels it'll still be a good while before there is any significant ice cover on the lakes this winter.



Link
90l=vibrant
95. Ed22
Quoting 76. BaltimoreBrian:

19N81W, what did you tell us? Anyway 90L has more convection than yesterday but is still disorganized.


Lets see if it gets more organized today, 90L is our last stint at a Cyclone formation this week coming.
Quoting 87. washingaway:


Watched an intesting PBS Nova show about the earth's magnetic field weakening, and that it may be normal for this weakening to occur prior to a magnetic pole reversal. So, I can't help but to wonder; could this weakening of the magnetic field play a part in the melting? It's the earth's magnetic field that protects us from solar radiation.


First of all my disclaimer, I'm not a weather guy, just a lurker, so here goes I've brought the polar swap issue for years, and the weaker north magnetic field in the north and the stronger fields in the south, I've discussed the percentages of the north field weakening and the strength of the South field, with possibility of an upcoming polar swap. A fact is the Antic is becoming weaker with ice, and the Antarctica has a greater ice field than it has had in hundreds of years. The true north pole is moving each year and now it close to Siberia. The ring of fire is on fire, example just last week Christchurch had a devastating earth quake, which is a sign of the polar swap is coming. There are many smart and education folks in this blog, I respect them for their knowledge, they teach me things about weather I use for my job. With my job being mentioned, I have to look at issues from a 30,000 ft view to see all angles to come up with future planning. I don't see that here with the regard of AGW. everything in here is carbon gases! and that's it! that's where I have issues with the Phd's I have never seen data in this blog where there is a total summation of information to determine the weather outcomes, in other words the big picture! In my little world the weather outcomes come from a variety of things effecting our earths weather, as mentioned the polar shits, then we have the sun with solar issues which has a great effect on the weather, the polar shifts, and AGW with carbon gases. I don't think I will get an argument that all three events have an effect on global weather. Over the last week and a half all I see is AGW and the election and doom and gloom, with division of the masses of Americans on this issue. I would like to see our smart people in here not politicizing our weather and use data from all the sources I mentioned above to see where our weather is going. Folks we really don't know where it's going because most of the data is from computer programs programmed by humans and the data in and data out can be con screwed to have outcomes to favor the programmer. Here is what I would like to see, all data input with AGW, Sun, Polar, to determine where our weather is going! if there is such an animal, just my thoughts for today.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIayxqk0Ees
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sIayxqk0Ees
90L appears to be a little more organized this morning.
Quoting 99. Stormwatch247:

90L appears to be a little more organized this morning.

Indeed :
Quoting 87. washingaway:


Watched an intesting PBS Nova show about the earth's magnetic field weakening, and that it may be normal for this weakening to occur prior to a magnetic pole reversal. So, I can't help but to wonder; could this weakening of the magnetic field play a part in the melting? It's the earth's magnetic field that protects us from solar radiation.
Very much so.
Here's what happened at the KDLH entry yesterday! http://www.duluthharborcam.com/2016/11/lake-superi or-noreaster-timelapse.html
90L looks much better this morning. Winds are near tropical storm force and the structure has become more comma-shaped. I disagree with the NHC's "near 0 percent" chance of development during the next 48 hours.
Foamado!

A fire suppression test went horribly wrong..
That's interesting...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized
this morning in association with an area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. In addition, satellite data
and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become a
little better defined. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for additional development, only a small
increase in the organization of the low could result in the
formation of a tropical depression. This system is expected to move
slowly and erratically during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized
this morning in association with an area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. In addition, satellite data
and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become a
little better defined. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for additional development, only a small
increase in the organization of the low could result in the
formation of a tropical depression. This system is expected to move
slowly and erratically during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent

AL, 90, 2016111818, , BEST, 0, 112N, 822W, 20, 1006, LO
AL, 90, 2016111900, , BEST, 0, 111N, 820W, 25, 1007, LO
AL, 90, 2016111906, , BEST, 0, 110N, 818W, 25, 1007, LO
AL, 90, 2016111912, , BEST, 0, 110N, 815W, 30, 1006, LO
Quoting 107. Carnivorous:

That's interesting...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized
this morning in association with an area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. In addition, satellite data
and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become a
little better defined. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for additional development, only a small
increase in the organization of the low could result in the
formation of a tropical depression. This system is expected to move
slowly and erratically during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent



It already looks like a storm, at least a td.
Link
The gfs shows a closed circulation.
much of nicaraquas original canopy has been deforested. they need to be on guard for this 90l event.
Happy weekend fellow Wunderbloggers... I see lots of things going on.

Finally down into the teens in Alaska. Snowing in places in South Central Alaska, which is good... Not much in Anchorage itself though (which is fine either way for me). Last couple of years here, Thanksgiving weekend seems to be the day we get dumped on, because, well, most people are out on the roads that day. Mother nature sometimes has a sick sense of humor.

Quoting 109. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


It already looks like a storm, at least a td.
Link
The gfs shows a closed circulation.


A good microwave pass would be nice to see it's current structure. The last partial SSMIS pass looked quite ominous:



The next ASCAT will also be in a few hours so lets wait and see ;)
Quoting 107. Carnivorous:

That's interesting...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized
this morning in association with an area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. In addition, satellite data
and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become a
little better defined. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for additional development, only a small
increase in the organization of the low could result in the
formation of a tropical depression. This system is expected to move
slowly and erratically during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent




Man those November storms are bipolar as heck.
Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:

Great article from Dr. Roy Spencer that signifies some of the half-truths and political motivations portrayed in climate "science"
Link
90L
Quoting 114. westernmob:

Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:...snip

What a bunch of nonsense! Spencer doesn't get the ppm right in the third point... indeed all the first three points are erroneous. A big slide from NASA to denier!
117. ackee
90L looks like A TD
The United States of America is not the whole world. This fella is disingenuous.
90l looks like it's getting somewhere, eventually. GFS wants a crossover, Euro sees a possible landfall in Nicaragua.
Quoting 96. trunkmonkey:



The true north pole is moving each year and now it close to Siberia.


Uh what?

Quoting 87. washingaway:


Watched an intesting PBS Nova show about the earth's magnetic field weakening, and that it may be normal for this weakening to occur prior to a magnetic pole reversal. So, I can't help but to wonder; could this weakening of the magnetic field play a part in the melting? It's the earth's magnetic field that protects us from solar radiation.

It protects us from solar wind and space radiation, not generally from solar radiation.
Arctic sea ice extent as measured by JAXA/IJIS has just dropped almost 100,000 sq. km.! We are now in mid-late November and Arctic sea ice extent stands at 8,329,714 sq. km.
Link
Quoting 96. trunkmonkey:



\...With my job being mentioned, I have to look at issues from a 30,000 ft view to see all angles to come up with future planning. I don't see that here with the regard of AGW. everything in here is carbon gases! and that's it! that's where I have issues with the Phd's I have never seen data in this blog where there is a total summation of information to determine the weather outcomes, in other words the big picture!...


The body of evidence and research backed by the vast majority of the worlds leading climate science supports that human caused climate change is happening and if we don't do something, we could be in for literally a hell of a time by the end of the century.

What I don't understand is why you and many others would elevate your opinion to of greater trust than a body of evidence that is as large as the same body of evidence that led to your ability to use the computer that you are typing messages with?

Look I'm not trying to mean, I'm just saying, stop and think about it. It simply doesn't make sense. If I wanted to do something for fame and wealth, would I go and passionately work at a degree and research at a university outside of the public eye, or would I intentionally deny the science of climate change to get the attention of the media and the oil giants?

Denying climate change doesn't make sense. It's not that scientists can't get corrupted, but look where the corruption and fame trail leads? It doesn't lead to AGW, it leads to denying it. Why? The denial camp is where all the money is. It's with the oil giants. People working at hard at research at universities could easily get paid more and get more fame if they denied climate change. So, if the climate scientists are all corrupt elitist liars, why would they take the humble, road of hard work and quiet service?

The logic of denying climate change doesn't have any reason to be believed. It's not that conspiracies never happen, but their needs to be a trail of rational bread crumbs to make a conspiracy worth believing. Every conspiracy that has been true had good rational evidence. Every fake and bunk conspiracy theory has no reason to believe.

If there was any conspiracy related to global warming, it would be the other way around. And, there is just that. The money is in the fossil fuel energy industry that resists the change as well the media and the politicians funded by it. Follow the money, and don't be afraid to question the politics and world view you grew up with. It will leave you as a better person.
Quoting 121. EmsiNasklug:


It protects us from solar wind and space radiation, not from solar radiation.


From Live Science: "Earth's magnetic field, which protects the planet from huge blasts of deadly solar radiation"
Quoting 114. westernmob:

Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:

Great article from Dr. Roy Spencer that signifies some of the half-truths and political motivations portrayed in climate "science"
Your definition of "great" appears to differ substantially with that of the dictionary's.

Spencer is a has-been, a con, a scammer who long ago sold his credibility for a few lousy pieces of silver and the chance to rub shoulders with scientific giants such as Limbaugh, Hannity, and Savage.
Quoting 125. washingaway:




my comment was about the comment of True North moving.
Quoting 128. wartsttocs:



my comment was about the comment of True North moving.


You're right, geodetric north does not change.
Quoting 127. Neapolitan:

Your definition of "great" appears to differ substantially with that of the dictionary's.

Spencer is a has-been, a con, a scammer who long ago sold his credibility for a few lousy pieces of silver and the chance to rub shoulders with scientific giants such as Limbaugh, Hannity, and Savage.
Yep...He seems to believe that God knew we would pollute the Earth and therefore has made an allowance for it, and will fix itself....
Quoting 101. NativeSun:

Very much so.


People actually studying and publishing about the subject seem to disagree:

"Therefore, a general link between climate
variability and geomagnetic field intensity is highly questionable"

From the paper: Link
todays upcoming launch wouldnt be happening if the eye of matthew moved over e cen florida. lucky or thats just climo?
Quoting 132. islander101010:

todays upcoming launch wouldnt be happening if the eye of matthew moved over e cen florida. lucky or thats just climo?


Luck, LUCK, luck, lucK, LUck, LucK, lUCK, luCk, LuCK. Every kind of luck variation. Had Matthew move parallel to the Cuba coast for a tad bit longer or wobbled west a bit more, this blog would have probably never exist, nor this comment.
Quoting 115. Skyepony:

90L



Too bad it may not move like wrong way Lenny
So our science denier friends here consider simple 5th grade science and observations about the current conditions of our weather,climate, and cryosphere to be all "doom and gloom".
And then go on to post Youtube videos from this guy: Link

Now that is a reversal!
From the National Snow and Ice Data Center

Sea ice has a much higher albedo compared to other earth surfaces, such as the surrounding ocean. A typical ocean albedo is approximately 0.06, while bare sea ice varies from approximately 0.5 to 0.7. This means that the ocean reflects only 6 percent of the incoming solar radiation and absorbs the rest, while sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent of the incoming energy. The sea ice absorbs less solar energy and keeps the surface cooler.

Snow has an even higher albedo than sea ice, and so thick sea ice covered with snow reflects as much as 90 percent of the incoming solar radiation. This serves to insulate the sea ice, maintaining cold temperatures and delaying ice melt in the summer. After the snow does begin to melt, and because shallow melt ponds have an albedo of approximately 0.2 to 0.4, the surface albedo drops to about 0.75. As melt ponds grow and deepen, the surface albedo can drop to 0.15. As a result, melt ponds are associated with higher energy absorption and a more rapid ice melt.


So, if more solar radiation (or solar entergy) is reaching Earth because of a weakening magnetic field, doesn't it stand to reason that could excelerate melting? In no way am I dismissing the effects of co2, just wondering if it's a compound effect?
Windstorm forecast confirmed by Meteo-France (they put the average recurrence interval of such a storm at 3-4 times a year, not uncommon), with max w. gusts predicted around 120-130kmh (or 74-80mph) in a few locations on the Channel and Brittany coasts, and Belgium, Netherlands also experiencing quite windy conditions tonight/tomorrow : (image link, arpege model run from Twitter). But there is more :
* Quoting Estofex.org: Synopsis and Discussion
(storm forecast issued: Sat 19 Nov 2016 17:00. Forecaster: Kahraman.)
(...) The current Arctic anomaly results in much warmer temperature than average in high latitudes, while much cooler than average temperature remains over Asia, which is covered with an extended area of snow. An impressive ~1065 mb high pressure centre over N Kazakhstan influences E Europe. On the other hand, NE Atlantic experiences rapid cyclogenesis, which hits western parts of Europe on and on. A deep low pressure centre of 976 mb is expected to be passing over S U.K. by the morning hours on Sunday, heading Norway during the forecast period. Behind that, another cyclone develops and deepens, reaching Bay of Biscay further in the night. The pressure gradient between the high in the east and the lows in the west create strong southerly flow over much of the continent, advecting warmer air northwards in central Europe. (...) Click Estofex, other links for more info.
138. Ed22
Quoting 107. Carnivorous:

That's interesting...

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
915 AM EST SAT NOV 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased and become better organized
this morning in association with an area of low pressure located
over the southwestern Caribbean Sea. In addition, satellite data
and surface observations indicate that the circulation has become a
little better defined. Although environmental conditions are only
marginally conducive for additional development, only a small
increase in the organization of the low could result in the
formation of a tropical depression. This system is expected to move
slowly and erratically during the next few days.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...60 percent


Yeah off course.
139. Ed22
Quoting 115. Skyepony:

90L

Tropical Depression right now, thats it.
Woo-hoo! Its a beautiful 58F here in Houston right now.
Glorious sunshine and a bit breezy. Going to 40 tonight!
Super excited for the first fire of the year!
Putting up the Christmas tree and lights right now.
Hope everyone is having a wonderful weekend
Quoting 112. Carnivorous:

The next ASCAT will also be in a few hours so lets wait and see ;)

Nice evening for the GOES-R launch. I wish this site had some more information on it. Yeah, I can go to NOAA and find out more, I'm sure. I will not watch The Weather Channel, however, for anything other than live weather reports. It's a shame that the only mention of the new GOES-R satellite is a shill for a TWC program that was on earlier today.

Hopefully these clouds will dissipate before 5:30 pm. The Atlas 5 launch just after sunset should be spectacular even from a few dozen miles away.
Quoting 121. EmsiNasklug:


It protects us from solar wind and space radiation, not from solar radiation.

correct if it did not the atmosphere and all the water below it would be stripped away and carry off into space
Quoting 119. EmsiNasklug:

90l looks like it's getting somewhere, eventually. GFS wants a crossover, Euro sees a possible landfall in Nicaragua.



I can dream 90L would put out the fires in the southeast US. We have high winds today to only influence the fires and only moisture to dream about.
Quoting 114. westernmob:

Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:

Great article from Dr. Roy Spencer that signifies some of the half-truths and political motivations portrayed in climate "science"
Link

Spencer would be better served by getting his latest version of the UAH published. Sophistry should be left to others. But, he does have an oath to fulfill.
Quoting 119. EmsiNasklug:

90l looks like it's getting somewhere, eventually. GFS wants a crossover, Euro sees a possible landfall in Nicaragua.



Repeat of Hurricane Beta of 2005?

Quoting 55. Neapolitan:

Another graph to illustrate what's going on at the top of the world:

Click for a larger, interactive, animated version:



2030 at the current rate and speed 2030
24 years
Quoting 130. hydrus:

Yep...He seems to believe that God knew that we would pollute the Earth and therefore has made an allowance for it, and will fix itself....
our god kinda likes sitting back watching us make fools of ourselves maybe we should show him instead
Capital Weather Gang ‏@capitalweather 2m2 minutes ago
Wow... Temp dropped from 70 at 3p to 52 at 4p in DC. Winds gusting over 40 mph. Now that's a cold front!
Quoting 116. ChiThom:



Feel free to refute any facts he's portrayed.
Quoting 127. Neapolitan:

Your definition of "great" appears to differ substantially with that of the dictionary's.

Spencer is a has-been, a con, a scammer who long ago sold his credibility for a few lousy pieces of silver and the chance to rub shoulders with scientific giants such as Limbaugh, Hannity, and Savage.


Specifics? Or are you of the alarmist mantra?
Quiet..
Good afternoon

It's 82 and feeling like 92, very cloudy with periods of heavy rain, and currently under a flash flood warning on the island today.

Other than that, some of the grocery stores have arranged to have their fresh goods flown in to cover the time it has taken to get the broken down transport ship's goods into the island. They've guaranteed this arrangement won't cause prices to go up but that remains to be seen. In the meantime they tell us that there will be lots of food on the shelves for thanksgiving.

And on my biweekly Zika update, the following was published late last week:

"The total number of Zika cases in the territory, to include pregnant women which the Department of Health now counts separately, skyrocketed to 833 cases, D.O.H. announced late Tuesday.

But the increase, according to the department’s director of public relations, was caused by a backlog of cases that were pending, which D.O.H. finally received.

'The significant increase in positive cases is primarily due to pending results dating back three weeks; the case increase is not specific to last week,” said Nykole Tyson. “As last weeks surveillance report indicated, there were a large number of pending results (261 on last report) that we received results back for and have updated the status in the database accordingly. The currently pending results reflects the most recent samples sent to CDC.'

According to the latest report, St. Thomas continues to lead with total confirmed cases of 556, followed by St. Croix with a total of 139 confirmed cases, and St. John with 52 confirmed cases. The number of pregnant women confirmed to be infected rose by 13 to 86 cases."

Hoping all is good with you folks out there!

Lindy


90L is set to be investigated by the HH Sunday.Should be interesting.
Quoting 96. trunkmonkey:





If you can work out how all of that relates to Kevin Bacon then you'll have a pretty entertaining story. It'll still be largely useless wrt AGW/CC, but it'll at least be interesting and have Bacon.
Quoting 124. washingaway:


From Live Science: "Earth's magnetic field, which protects the planet from huge blasts of deadly solar radiation"
The magnetic field only protects us from energetic charged particles from the sun. It does not protect us from any electromagnetic radiation such as ultraviolet, x-rays and gamma rays. Our atmosphere protects us, mostly, from EM radiation.
Quoting 122. wartsttocs:

Arctic sea ice extent as measured by JAXA/IJIS has just dropped almost 100,000 sq. km.! We are now in mid-late November and Arctic sea ice extent stands at 8,329,714 sq. km.
Link

It's stunning, isn't it?
Indeed, a stormy night for folks adjacent to the British Channel:

Storm Angus: South-east England braced for 80mph winds
BBC, 2 hours ago
Coastal areas in south-east England are set to be hit by 80mph winds in the first named storm of the season.
The Met Office has issued an amber "be prepared" warning before Storm Angus reaches the coast from Bournemouth to Dover overnight.
A yellow "be aware" warning for winds up to 55mph and heavy rain has been issued for a larger area of the south and east of England, including London.
Forecasters are warning of possible localising flooding. ...



Current IR loop, updating.

Surface map for tomorrow: Behind "Angus" (in Germany: "Nanette") next cyclone "Petrine" is expected to develop and follow suite.


BLOG HOLE
The "R" word being mentioned in Soo Cal.....let's see what happens.

Quoting 133. isothunder67:



Luck, LUCK, luck, lucK, LUck, LucK, lUCK, luCk, LuCK. Every kind of luck variation. Had Matthew move parallel to the Cuba coast for a tad bit longer or wobbled west a bit more, this blog would have probably never exist, nor this comment.
Yes indeed..As bad a Mathew was, it could have been far worse.
NWS San Diego

.PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA
INCLUDING ORANGE... SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN
SAN BERNARDINO COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Monday)...
A trough of low pressure is over the eastern Pacific early this
morning with a closed upper center off the Pacific Northwest coast
and a trough axis extending southward along 135W. This trough of
low pressure will bring a return of onshore flow today with
cooling continuing to spread inland.

For late tonight and Sunday...the southern end of this trough will
amplify and a second closed upper center may form briefly as it
moves into Southern California Sunday night. Some models show the
possibility of some light showers late tonight...mainly across
portions of the Los Angeles metro area east of Los Angeles County
with very weak upper ridging ahead of the trough reducing
precipitation chances during the day on Sunday. The main period of
precipitation is expected for a 3 to 6 hour period associated with
the cold frontal passage. Current model timing would bring the
leading edge of the front into areas just east of Los Angeles
County early Sunday evening with the front reaching San Diego
County during the middle to late evening. Please see the hydrology
section below for more details on the precipiation. High
temperatures will cool to slightly below average on Sunday and 5 to
locally 10 degrees below average on Monday. Southwest to west winds
in portions of the mountains and deserts could be near advisory
strength at times for Sunday night into Monday...especially for San
Diego County.
90L...

.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 136. washingaway:

From the National Snow and Ice Data Center

Sea ice has a much higher albedo compared to other earth surfaces, such as the surrounding ocean. A typical ocean albedo is approximately 0.06, while bare sea ice varies from approximately 0.5 to 0.7. This means that the ocean reflects only 6 percent of the incoming solar radiation and absorbs the rest, while sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent of the incoming energy. The sea ice absorbs less solar energy and keeps the surface cooler.

Snow has an even higher albedo than sea ice, and so thick sea ice covered with snow reflects as much as 90 percent of the incoming solar radiation. This serves to insulate the sea ice, maintaining cold temperatures and delaying ice melt in the summer. After the snow does begin to melt, and because shallow melt ponds have an albedo of approximately 0.2 to 0.4, the surface albedo drops to about 0.75. As melt ponds grow and deepen, the surface albedo can drop to 0.15. As a result, melt ponds are associated with higher energy absorption and a more rapid ice melt.


So, if more solar radiation (or solar entergy) is reaching Earth because of a weakening magnetic field, doesn't it stand to reason that could excelerate melting? In no way am I dismissing the effects of co2, just wondering if it's a compound effect?


The magnetic field does not prevent solar radiation from reaching the Earth's surface. The magnetic field affects charged solar particles, also known as "solar wind". Protons, electrons, muons, and other charge carrying particles are affected by magnetic fields.

Electromagnetic radiation (IR, UV, Visible, etc.) are not impeded in any way by magnetic fields. The same applies to neutrons, nutrinos, and any other "chargeless" entities. Therefore, it doesn't matter how strong or how weak the Earth's magnetic field is, the insolation at the surface would remain the same.
Quoting 114. westernmob:

Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:

Great article from Dr. Roy Spencer that signifies some of the half-truths and political motivations portrayed in climate "science"
Link


Roy Spencer is quack. His so-called research has been debunked so often that the only thing he can publish on is his joke of a blog.
Although convection has decreased with 90L this afternoon, this is probably a diurnal fluctuation. Most importantly, visible satellite imagery suggests that the circulation has become much better-defined since yesterday, and we should see a significant increase in shower activity overnight; given the potency of the low-level circulation, that convection should be able to organize. The system is still experiencing some residual shear, but it appears to be decreasing. The GFS and ECMWF rightly make this system a tropical cyclone in 2 to 3 days, with the ECMWF showing a significant hurricane moving into Nicaragua. I still believe we'll get a tropical storm at the very least, as I have for days. Heavy, flooding rains and loss of life are likely over portions of Costa Rica, Nicaragua, and Honduras.
NASA tv has good coverage of GOES-R launch aboard an Atlas rocket, and subsequent deployment about 3 hours later.
@114westernmob Great link. Thanks for posting that article. :)
Quoting 114. westernmob:

Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:

Great article from Dr. Roy Spencer that signifies some of the half-truths and political motivations portrayed in climate "science"
Link

Great article! Thanks for posting! :)
Quoting 114. westernmob:

Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:

Great article from Dr. Roy Spencer that signifies some of the half-truths and political motivations portrayed in climate "science"
Link

Great article! Thanks for posting! :)
blowup of convection=90l=bingo
Quoting 132. islander101010:

todays upcoming launch wouldnt be happening if the eye of matthew moved over e cen florida. lucky or thats just climo?


It's obviously luck. It wasn't the synoptics that enabled Matthew to miss Florida, it was the EWRC inducing mesoscale wobbles.
Did the Men in Black show up and shut the blog down?

Quoting 114. westernmob:

Global Warming: Policy Hoax versus Dodgy Science:

Great article from Dr. Roy Spencer that signifies some of the half-truths and political motivations portrayed in climate "science"
Link


It's a great article if you got a PHD in phyisics from Trump University.
Still waiting for the launch to happen.
LIFTOFF!!!!!!
Bob, thanks for the great post again

A couple of questions:
Could the decrease in sea ice in the Antarctic this year be a delayed reaction related to the ozone hole location? Last year I think I recollect the ozone hole was centred over Antarctica for a long time as opposed to drifting north over NZ like it normally does in the summer

Are there any good climate predictions for the southern hemisphere? I see a lot of info for the effect agw will have on the US, some for Europe/Middle East/Africa etc. Not much in the way of predictions for Australia or New Zealand

Quoting Post 58 ronnm "It is simply not affordable not politically expedient for places like Bangladesh, Burma, The Philippines and many other countries, (to numerous to mention) to build infrastructure or relocate populations internally to combat the inevitable flooding and salination of crop lands that will occur. Simply they don't have the money. The US most of Europe China yes."

Comments like this one seem to assume that the US can engineer itself away from sea level rise. As an engineer I say its possible but you cant afford it. Neither can most of Europe that will be affected by sea level rise.

Miami Beach is spending $400 million to protect parts of the city against a 4-5 ft sea level rise. Based on the IPCC reports that gives Miami Beach about 30-50 more years protection. According to Mr Henson and increasing numbers of scientists the IPCC reports are overly conservative. The sea ice is melting faster and so is the land ice, therefore sea level rise will be faster too

Can Miami Beach afford $400 million every 30-50 years if the IPCC is right? Next time it will cost extensively more to secure the same area. Then do the same for all of your coastal cities, all needed to be done at the same time, most costing much much more. The tax increases would be crippling for the US economy, whilst major portions of your country descend into multi-year drought, which will also need support

I just cant see where the US can get that money from
How great an impact will the sharp decrease in albedo for such a large swath of the Southern Ocean have -- especially since the Austral summer is coming?