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Could the Imminent U.S. Heat Wave Trigger a Flash Drought?

By: Bob Henson 12:36 AM GMT on July 19, 2016

A massive upper-level high will envelop most of the contiguous U.S. in the last half of July, setting up what could be a prolonged bout of extreme heat for millions of Americans. If the scorching weather persists into August, the odds of a “flash drought” in the nation’s heartland will rise sharply (along with the odds that the U.S. will notch its hottest summer on record, in line with what’s very likely to be Earth’s warmest year on record). Even though it appears that heat and humidity will combine to put residents, pets, and livestock through the wringer, it’s quite possible that the croplands of the Midwest and Plains will fare better than one might expect, thanks to a fortunate confluence of factors.

There’s certainly no mercy in the pattern projected for the next few days at upper levels. As shown in Figure 1, the upper high at 500 millibars (about four miles up) encompasses nearly all of the contiguous U.S. by Thursday night, July 21. Because air expands as it warms, a higher 500-millibar surface is associated with a warmer air mass at lower levels. Although the most extreme 500-mb heights projected in earlier model runs have dropped just a bit, both the GFS and ECMWF models have been consistent with their portrayal of a mammoth upper ridge centered near the nation’s midsection for at least the next week to ten days, perhaps longer. The atmospheric variables predicted to take shape later this week are similar to those observed during some of the nation’s most notorious heat waves of recent decades, according to the CIPS Analog website from the Cooperative Institute for Precipitation Systems/Saint Louis University. At the time period shown below in Figure 1 (8 PM Thursday, July 21), the closest analog for conditions predicted for the Midwest (taking into account temperatures, moisture, and other factors at various layers) is July 13, 1995--the second day of a catastrophic five-day heat wave that took more than 700 lives in the Chicago area. The top analogs also include July 4, 2012, and August 7, 1980, two peak days from the devastating central U.S. drought years of 2012 and 1980. Excessive heat watches for later this week have already been issued by the National Weather Service for parts of Illinois, Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Nebraska, North Dakota, and South Dakota. We can expect many other areas to follow suit as the week unfolds.


Figure 1. 500-millibar heights (in decameters, or tens of meters) predicted for 8:00 PM Thursday, July 21, 2016, by the 12Z Monday GEFS (the ensemble run of the GFS model). The colors show how much the predicted 500-mb height deviates from the average for this time of year. Image credit: tropicaltidbits.com.

Blazing temps and wilting humidity: a risky combo
With such strong model support for a high-end upper ridge, one might expect surface temperatures to be correspondingly extreme. Indeed, readings near or above the century mark (100°F) are likely to encompass large parts of the Great Plains by midweek--perhaps even topping 110°F in some spots--with 90°F to 100°F readings over a far larger part of the nation. As an upper-level impulse rides along the north side of the ridge later this week, a burst of heat and humidity will be shunted eastward, approaching the East Coast toward the weekend. In a post on Monday, Capital Weather Gang observed that both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting highs in the vicinity of 105°F in the Washington, D.C., area for Saturday, perhaps approaching the city’s all-time high of 106°F (set on August 6, 1918 and July 20, 1930). It’s important to keep in mind that long-range models often struggle in nailing down the exact location and strength of high temperatures this extreme, especially beyond two or three days. The key message here isn’t the precise forecast for Saturday, but the overall signals pointing toward an intense and possibly historic round of heat affecting most of the central and eastern U.S.

Another important element of this heat wave: some of the energy that would otherwise go into heating up the lower atmosphere will be diverted into evaporating moisture. Plants and soils are quite moist in many areas thanks to recent rains, especially through a belt from the Central Plains into the Ohio Valley. That moisture is a mixed blessing: while it’ll help to keep surface air temperatures a notch lower than they’d otherwise be, it will also help pump up the amount of water vapor in the air. In addition, the Midwest’s vast corn crops are at a stage where they add moisture to the air through evapotranspiration, a process dubbed “corn sweat”. As a result, heat index values will soar to uncomfortable and even dangerous levels as this week progresses over large parts of the central and eastern U.S., especially toward the south. The atmospheric moisture will also help boost nighttime lows, which exacerbates the potential risk to human and animal health from a multi-day heat wave. (Climate Central recently documented the long-term rise in summertime atmospheric moisture across the U.S. as measured by surface dew points.)


Figure 2. In this 4-day outlook from Monday, July 18, 2016, daily heat indices on Friday, July 22, are projected to exceed 105°F (magenta) over large parts of the central and eastern U.S. The highest indices will shift toward the Southeast by early next week. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.

Watching for flash drought
It wasn’t too long ago--in 2012--that a promising-looking spring morphed into a terrible summer for the U.S. Midwest. A long-term drought that began in late 2010 had intensified over the Southern Plains in 2011, punishing farmers and ranchers and facilitating the loss of roughly 10% of all trees in Texas. The real shocker was how quickly drought conditions took hold further north across the Midwest in the summer of 2012, leading to the most widespread U.S. drought conditions since the 1930s. “Nobody called that [in advance],” said Mark Svoboda (National Drought Mitigation Center). Even NOAA’s 30-day and seasonal drought outlooks from June 2012 failed to predict that month’s emergence of drought in the Midwest, according to Svoboda. It appears this wasn’t a simple northward extension of the ongoing drought further south, but something else--a classic case of what’s increasingly known as a flash drought, a rapid-onset drying of the landscape (there is not yet a standard definition). Svoboda first brought the term to a general audience when he used it in 2000 in a USA TODAY interview. but it was the 2012 Midwest event that gave the flash-drought concept much more prominence.

While long-term drought can emerge simply through a lack of precipitation, a flash drought is closely linked to hot summer weather. The type of flash drought most often observed in the Midwest develops as a torrid air mass sweeps in for a period of a few days to several weeks. At first, the landscape may not be particularly dry, in which case large amounts of water vapor flow from vegetation and soils into the scorching surface air (as is expected later this week). If the heat is strong and sustained enough, the landscape quickly dries out and a flash drought takes hold.


Figure 3. Frequency of occurrence of five-day periods of two types of flash drought--heat wave flash drought (top) and precipitation-deficit flash drought (bottom)--in an ensemble of four models employed to replicate land-surface conditions for the climate from 1916 to 2012. Image credit: Figs. 4a and 4b from Kingtse C. Mo and Dennis P. Lettenmaier, “Precipitation Deficit Flash Droughts over the United States,” Journal of Hydrometeorology 2016 17:4, 1169-1184, ©American Meteorological Society.  Used with permission.


In a paper published this spring in the Journal of Hydrometeorology, Kingtse Mo (NOAA Climate Prediction Center) and Dennis Lettenmaier (University of California, Los Angeles) label the above sequence of events a “heat wave flash drought.” The scientists also identified another, more common flavor--what they call a “precipitation deficit flash drought”--that’s most frequent in the Southern Plains. In this type of flash drought, a lack of precipitation allows the local landscape to heat up quickly under the strong summer sun, which leads to additional drying and further heating. Both types of flash drought are dangerous, the scientists warn: “Even though flash droughts tend not to persist, they initiate the depletion of soil moisture, and the persisting deficits can cause large damages to the agriculture community.”

Better late than sooner
If there’s any potential for a heat wave flash drought over the next few days, at least the timing is on our side. The heat is arriving several weeks later than the worst conditions in 2012, which means that major crops are further along and better able to handle the heat. In addition, the nation’s corn and soybean crops have been maturing more quickly than usual this year (see Figure 4 below). According to USDA meteorologist Brad Rippey, this is largely due to the unusual warmth of June (the warmest on record for the 48 contiguous states) together with early planting in some areas. “Corn typically has a very short period of time--ten days or so--when it is acutely sensitive to air temperature and moisture availability,” Rippey told me. Temperatures above 95°F and/or a lack of moisture are detrimental to the pollination process. However, Rippey said, “by the time the heat wave hits the western and southern Corn Belt this week, a decent amount of the corn will have passed through its most sensitive stage.” Further to the northeast, in Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, corn planting was delayed due to the cool, wet May. However, temperatures there should stay below critical thresholds during the coming week.

One concern is the potential impact of very warm nights in the 70s and 80s, which can lower corn yields by depleting sugars produced by daytime photosynthesis. “Today’s drought-tolerant varieties are really quite good at overcoming weather challenges, although nighttime heat seems to be a particular problem,” Rippey said. He adds that soybeans--another hugely important U.S. crop–are more flexible in dealing with flash droughts, since they have a wider reproductive window and can slow or halt their growth processes as needed to conserve energy and moisture.


Figure 4. The nation’s corn and soybean crops have grown more quickly than usual in 2016. Left: percent of corn crops silking in each state by July 17 (top numbers), together with the percentage difference (bottom numbers) from the five-year average for this date. Right: percent of soybean crops blooming by state. Image credit: USDA, courtesy Brad Rippey.

Two new tools for tracking flash drought
A burst of research has led to the emergence of new monitoring efforts that may help identify and even predict flash droughts. The National Drought Mitigation Center has been leading a multiyear effort to develop the Quick Drought Response Index (QuickDRI), which will monitor changes in vegetation over periods of a week or two. QuickDRI is building on VegDRI, an operational product that uses satellite and climate data to map vegetation change at the seasonal scale. Funded by NASA, QuickDRI is being tested this year and may become “pseudo-operational” as soon as 2017, according to NDMC’s Mark Svoboda.

Meanwhile, a group led by Michael Hobbins (NOAA/ESRL Physical Science Division) and Dan McEvoy and Justin Huntington (Desert Research Institute) has developed the Evaporative Demand Drought Index (EDDI), which focuses on the weather that drives both flash drought and long-term drought. Rather than assessing the landscape itself, or recent rainfall, EDDI looks solely at evaporative demand--the impact of atmospheric temperature, humidity, wind, and solar radiation over a particular time period--and how it compares to climatology. A positive EDDI indicates drier-than-average conditions. In evaluations thus far, EDDI appears to work well in providing advance notice of drought development, often ahead of other commonly used indexes. The EDDI is spotlighted in the June issue of the Journal of Hydrometeorology, where a pair of papers explains the rationale for the index and a U.S.-based evaluation of its skill. The EDDI will be moving toward operational use at NOAA’s National Water Center over the next two to three years, according to Hobbins. “The three sectors or drought types for which we think EDDI holds out the greatest hope for warning capabilities are flash drought, sustained long-term agricultural and hydrologic drought, and wildfire risk,” he added. In the meantime, regularly updated EDDI maps for various time frames are available for download. The most recent 4-week EDDI map suggests that the eastern Great Lakes, New York, and western New England have experienced drought-favorable weather over the last month. Patches of moderate drought in these areas are now showing up in the weekly U.S. Drought Monitor.

We’ll be back with our next post by Tuesday afternoon.

Bob Henson


Figure 5. EDDI values for the four weeks ending on July 13, 2016. EDDI categories are similar to those used in the U.S. Drought Monitor, although EDDI is designed to monitor the weather that leads to drought rather than to diagnose existing drought. EDDI does not incorporate precipitation or soil conditions--only atmospheric and solar variables. Image credit: Courtesy Michael Hobbins, NOAA/ESRL/PSD.

Heat Drought Extreme Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Mr. Henson! Yes, heat is gonna be a pretty immense one with temps being in the upper 90s to low 100s here this weekend.
The south east and mid-atlantic need the rains from a weak tropical storm in order to help get us out of drought.
Setup looking really bad for a lot of people. Meanwhile the Atlantic Ocean endures a drought of its own.
Quoting 2. washingtonian115:

The south east and mid-atlantic need the rains from a weak tropical storm in order to help get us out of drought.


But dry conditions in that area means more hurricanes for me. I have $2000 sitting there waiting. :)
Very informative and interesting post about flash drought Bob! Call me crazy but I'm actually looking forward to the possible triple digit heat this weekend.

I don't know. Probably just a weather geek thing :^)
Quoting 2. washingtonian115:

The south east and mid-atlantic need the rains from a weak tropical storm in order to help get us out of drought.


Florida included, usually we have almost 9 inches or more during the month of July, but all we got as of now is 0.11 inches. Now that is drought status for Florida. My pool is running so low that I might have to switch to the main drain in order to keep the water circulating . Have lost almost 11 inches of water in my pool due to this dry spell/drought.
it has been raining on and off here near hialeah,florida during these past few days.specially at night.so i dont see why they would declare a drought here.the other day i checked the radar and it was raining on the west coast and near/over the lake (okechoobee)as well

its even raining in parts of broward right now
very nice post bob as always thanks


words for the next 14 days is hot and dry
Quoting 8. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

very nice post bob as always thanks


words for the next 14 days is hot and dry
typical of these summer months i cant wait for fall to arrive here lol
The MPHI chart shows that most of the western Atlantic right now could support a 165 knot+ cyclone with very dark blues.The shear has been favorable this season and it seems like the dry air (for now) is on our side to put a lid on anything.
Quoting 8. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

very nice post bob as always thanks


words for the next 14 days is hot and dry


June and July are notorious for heat waves. Almost complete lack of cold fronts.
Quoting 10. washingtonian115:

The MPHI chart shows that most of the western Atlantic right now could support a 165 knot+ cyclone with very dark blues.The shear has been favorable this season and it seems like the dry air (for now) is on our side to put a lid on anything.
got a feeling that Sept and October could get pretty active in the Caribbean basin
Quoting 7. knightwarrior41:

it has been raining on and off here near hialeah,florida during these past few days.specially at night.so i dont see why they would declare a drought here.the other day i checked the radar and it was raining on the west coast and near/over the lake (okechoobee)as well

its even raining in parts of broward right now


Not in Palm Beach County though (West Boca Raton). We have not picked up anything for 3 weeks now. 0.11 inches total for the month of July only. Average is 9.58 inches or more .
Quoting 10. washingtonian115:

The MPHI chart shows that most of the western Atlantic right now could support a 165 knot+ cyclone with very dark blues.The shear has been favorable this season and it seems like the dry air (for now) is on our side to put a lid on anything.
May I get a link to that?
yesterday's showers were coming straight from the east and now they are coming ashore from the northeast.hmm interesting
No dought here as the cherry tomatoes are going fruit bloom crazy in the garden.
Quoting 13. birdsrock2016:



Not in Palm Beach County though (West Boca Raton). We have not picked up anything for 3 weeks now. 0.11 inches total for the month of July only. Average is 9.58 inches or more .
i believe you since the storms that we are getting are pretty spotty in nature.but yesterday night it was almost like training over here.had lots of lighting strikes and with heavy downpours
Quoting 15. knightwarrior41:

yesterday's showers were coming straight from the east and now they are coming ashore from the northeast.hmm interesting


Implies a strengthening high.
Quoting 10. washingtonian115:

The MPHI chart shows that most of the western Atlantic right now could support a 165 knot+ cyclone with very dark blues.The shear has been favorable this season and it seems like the dry air (for now) is on our side to put a lid on anything.


I seriously haven't seen this many positive signals for a potentially big US season in awhile. If you have to attach condition after condition just to get a storm to hit the US (like last year :P), it's probably not gonna happen. This year there's really not too much of that so far.
Quoting 18. KoritheMan:



Implies a strengthening high.
ok didnt know about that.so if the high strengthens this could mean that we would have even less chances of rain the upcoming days,right?
Quoting 20. knightwarrior41:

ok didnt know about that.so if the high strengthens this could mean that we would have even less chances of rain the upcoming days,right?


In general, yes. The position of the high is also important.
Quoting 14. Tornado6042008X:

May I get a link to that?

right now on my neck of the woods http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName= Miami+Lakes&state=FL&site=MFL&textField1=25.9099&t extField2=-80.3145#.VAeeLPnxqcU

it stills feels like 95,pretty oppressive type of weather if you ask me
Quoting 22. washingtonian115:





Note (not for you wash, mainly for others) when using that product: the MPI is literally just a highly theoretical threshold. It represents the maximum theoretical (margin for error) intensity a tropical cyclone achieve under ideal conditions. Many tropical cyclones do not achieve this.
Quoting 23. knightwarrior41:

right now on my neck of the woods http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?CityName= Miami+Lakes&state=FL&site=MFL&textFiel d1=25.9099&t extField2=-80.3145#.VAeeLPnxqcU

it stills feels like 95,pretty oppressive type of weather if you ask me


lol this kid thinks 95F is impressive. You clearly haven't been in Louisiana. It actually happens all the time here, lol.
Quoting 26. KoritheMan:



lol this kid thinks 95F is impressive. You clearly haven't been in Louisiana. It actually happens all the time here, lol.
i ceased to be a kid many decades ago,kiddo :0] but yeah its really uncomfty outside right now.i'm thankful for the a/c
its not like i'm a contemporary with grothar or anything.... >.> lol
Quoting 28. knightwarrior41:

its not like i'm a contemporary with grothar or anything.... >.> lol


You just used shifty eyes. Maybe you're younger than I thought. ;)
Quoting 25. BaltimoreBrian:

Moving this here since it is on topic:

What in the world is 'corn sweat' and is it really causing this heat wave? By Angela Fritz


If we're gonna dumb it down, we should call it "corn breath". At least the full post does explain it properly.

I have spent more than one hot afternoon feeling the silky, sweet, softness of "corn breath" on my skin.
yeah...that sounds better...
Thankfully, it seems like this alleged high that is supposed to build is not going to squash rain chances in FL too much. My latest scientific forecast discussion long term shows average pop ups and even talks about a possible ULL in the area at some point instigating more rain.
Weather factoid of the day--at Cleveland's Burke Lakefront Airport, the nearest climate site to the Republican convention, the average daily temperature from July 18-21 is 75.3--the highest daily averages of the year. July 17 and 22 are 75.2--so it should be a hot time in a rock-n-roll town :)
There's always one storm that vastly exceeds expectations, and one storm that vastly underachieves exceptions. Estelle is the latter. Despite a great upper-level setup, moist environment, and seemingly warm ocean temperatures, the storm has struggled to strengthen further than 60kt--and it actually appears less organized than yesterday. It only has another day or so before it crosses the 26C isotherm, so the chances of it becoming stronger than a minimal hurricane, if that, are decreasing quickly. This is sharp contrast to model output from the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF which indicated a Category 3 or 4 hurricane. The LGEM, which seemed like an outlier the other day when it showed a 60kt peak, was spot on.

Quoting 26. KoritheMan:



lol this kid thinks 95F is impressive. You clearly haven't been in Louisiana. It actually happens all the time here, lol.
97°F here today but the humidity was 34% at the time.
Cody I have wondered a long time what role the internal organization of a tropical cyclone has in determining its ultimate intensity. And why some tropical cyclones start off sprawling, and some start off small and tight.

Not looking forward to these temps. 90.4F here today, 94 at the Airport(KRAL)
Quoting 33. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's always one storm that vastly exceeds exceptions, and one storm that vastly underachieves exceptions. Estelle is the latter. Despite a great upper-level setup, moist environment, and seemingly warm ocean temperatures, the storm has struggled to strengthen further than 60kt--and it actually appears less organized than yesterday. It only has another day or so before it crosses the 26C isotherm, so the chances of it becoming stronger than a minimal hurricane, if that, are decreasing quickly. This is sharp contrast to model output from the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF which indicated a Category 3 or 4 hurricane. The LGEM, which seemed like an outlier the other day when it showed a 60kt peak, was spot on.





EP, 06, 2016071900, , BEST, 0, 181N, 1161W, 55, 993, TS
Quoting 20. knightwarrior41:

ok didnt know about that.so if the high strengthens this could mean that we would have even less chances of rain the upcoming days,right?


Where do you live? If in Florida, the surface and upper high is shifting away from Florida, though without any synoptic lift from a TC or upper level low, convection on the east coast overall won't be as heavy with the onshore flow as over here on the west coast. Generally speaking, there have been regions of deep tropical moisture and dry aloft traversing the area in intervals the last week or so now.

This is the main driver in how day to day coverage will vary over FL, as there isn't expected to be nay suppressing ridging or any lows to enhance lift and rainfall. The main reason for the intervals of relatively drier air aloft and deeper moisture, is that the Sahara dust layer is still unusually active for now, so the eastern Caribbean has spent another year being pretty dry.

However, as the dry air passes across the Atlantic moisture from the warm water mixes with the dry air, causing there to be mixed patchy pattern of deep moisture and drier air aloft. There intervals are tough to predict beyond the short term. For example, drier air aloft traversed FL yesterday and today, while deeper moisture returns tomorrow afternoon through Wednesday, beyond that, we'll see.
From last blog

Quoting 218. KoritheMan:

Before anyone starts making baseless complaints about a quiet season, 2005 - one of my big landfall analogs - was heavily shear-ridden and dry east of the Lesser Antilles. Conditions were more favorable near the United States coast and in the Caribbean. That's what I think will happen this year, and I'm not alone in thinking that. Conditions can't literally be favorable in every single spot in the Atlantic all the time. It's physically impossible, otherwise we'd have a lot more storms every year than we do.


No offense, but I really hope not.

You guys know me well, I (and some of the Lesser Antilles blogers may join me) may not survive if Kori is right.

He, and those who thinks like him CAN'T be right!! :)
Quoting 4. KoritheMan:



But dry conditions in that area means more hurricanes for me. I have $2000 sitting there waiting. :)


The interesting about this summer here in Florida, is that the upper air pattern over the course of the summer is one that would have yielded nasty drought in other times past. Though we have had some dry streaks and overall a drier than average rainy season for some of the area. Overall it hasn't been too bad considering. SFC instability has helped make up for things, and thunderstorms have been consistently insane lightning producers, though warm mid level temps have helped kept severe hail chances limited.

It does remind of other years where we had major hurricanes, just not quite as dry.
Quoting 33. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's always one storm that vastly exceeds exceptions, and one storm that vastly underachieves exceptions. Estelle is the latter. Despite a great upper-level setup, moist environment, and seemingly warm ocean temperatures, the storm has struggled to strengthen further than 60kt--and it actually appears less organized than yesterday. It only has another day or so before it crosses the 26C isotherm, so the chances of it becoming stronger than a minimal hurricane, if that, are decreasing quickly. This is sharp contrast to model output from the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF which indicated a Category 3 or 4 hurricane. The LGEM, which seemed like an outlier the other day when it showed a 60kt peak, was spot on.




Do you mean expectations rather than exceptions?
Quoting 17. knightwarrior41:

i believe you since the storms that we are getting are pretty spotty in nature.but yesterday night it was almost like training over here.had lots of lighting strikes and with heavy downpours



Just got a nice downpour here. Still raining and 0.2 inches so far.
Nice sound to hear after 3 weeks without rain.
Although, this rain will most likely evaporate by tomorrow like it was never there.


July rainfall situation isn't too bad
Quoting 6. birdsrock2016:



Florida included, usually we have almost 9 inches or more during the month of July, but all we got as of now is 0.11 inches. Now that is drought status for Florida. My pool is running so low that I might have to switch to the main drain in order to keep the water circulating . Have lost almost 11 inches of water in my pool due to this dry spell/drought.


Didn't realize it was so dry in SE FL... Last summer we had extreme amounts of rain, 40-60 inches in about 3 months here in the Tampa Bay area, I had 26 in July and 23 in August alone.

So far I've had 15.32 for June(10.2 from TS Colin) and only 2.35 for July so far, though my spot has been locally really unlucky lately, the east west pattern has made most west coast FL regions very wet the last 10 days with very intense thunderstorms in this area every day the past week to present.

Wasn't it very dry last summer there too? My guess is it must be how dead and dry the east Caribbean has been down stream. SE FL is typically even wetter than up here in Central FL due to frequent tropical waves and tropical disturbances. FL has been completely devoid of even a tropical wave sweeping across SE FL any time during the rainy season over the past couple years from what I remember. We have been spared from the dryness mostly due to large summer ridges that form across the U.S. while helps pool moisture to the south of it across the northern gulf coast along with north and central FL and helps keep the Saharan dry layer south of here.
What are you expecting from the GFS "Earl"?
A. Ghost Storm
B. Invest
C. TD
D. TS
E. Hurricane
F. Just a tropical wave
GFS Ensembles also picking up a bit on the development near Cape Verde.
Quoting 222. HurricaneFan:


ECMWF did originally expect a weak TS to form off the coast of NC for a while earlier this month, and that never happened.... It can't be viewed as "always correct" because that isn't the case... ECMWF predicted the genesis of Alex and Colin first, but I believe GFS predicted Bonnie and Danielle first.
Sounds like load sharing.

Seems GFS long range has been fairly good this year at picking up things 10 - 14 days out .... even if it drops them in the 5 - 10 day range. Let's see if it can do anything worthwhile in the heart of the season.
Quoting 235. SLU:



For sure. But if an organised storm from the MDR gets there one day, run for your life. It could become a monster beyond any Gulf storm we've seen since the heydays.

img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://dailysignal.com/wp-content/uploads/upi photos645508.jpg"
I keep recalling Andrew, which was nearly decommissioned out in the MDR, but which pulled up to cat 5 in the waters north of the Antilles as it approached the Bahamas. This is the same general area where Joaquin deepened last year.

I'm thinking if the vorticity's there, a TD only has to make it to the sweet spot. And from various sources, it's looking like anything west of 55 and south of 25 all the way to the continent is potentially fair ground.
Quoting 44. Jedkins01:



Didn't realize it was so dry in SE FL... Last summer we had extreme amounts of rain, 40-60 inches in about 3 months here in the Tampa Bay area, I had 26 in July and 23 in August alone.

So far I've had 15.32 for June and only 2.35 for August, though my spot has been locally really unlucky, the east west pattern has made most west coast FL regions very wet the last 10 days.

Wasn't it very dry last summer there too? My guess is it must be how dead and dry the east Caribbean has been down stream. SE FL is typically even wetter than up here in Central FL due to frequent tropical waves and tropical disturbances. FL has been completely devoid of even a tropical wave sweeping across SE FL any time during the rainy season over the past couple years from what I remember. We have been spared from the dryness mostly due to large summer ridges that form across the U.S. while helps pool moisture to the south of it across the northern gulf coast along with north and central FL and helps keep the Saharan dry layer south of here.


Yep, if you look at the blog, South Florida is in stage 2 drought right now. This is looking eerily like 2015 in which summer was really dry. Hopefully, winter is not as dry with the LA-Nina pattern that is starting to form.
La-Nina usually means dry winters for Florida. Droughts are becoming more frequent in South Florida.
Waiting for the 00z GFS run. Will be interesting to see if it still develops the storm near Cape Verde.
hello little fella there waiting

Quoting 50. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hello little fella there waiting




Cool animation for your profile pic.
Quoting 41. SunnyDaysFla:



Do you mean expectations rather than exceptions?

Yes. Fixed.
Quoting 45. HurricaneFan:

What are you expecting from the GFS "Earl"?
A. Ghost Storm
B. Invest
C. TD
D. TS
E. Hurricane
F. Just a tropical wave

I'm thinking A but if its not a ghost I'll say F it'll probably be a sacrificial T-wave to clear out the dry air/SAL in the MDR for future T-waves to develop.
Quoting 20. knightwarrior41:

ok didnt know about that.so if the high strengthens this could mean that we would have even less chances of rain the upcoming days,right?
Supposed to be a couple of troughs, then a Twave passing through the area over the next 5 days .... even with a pretty hefty high we can end up with at least scattered showers.
Quoting 33. TropicalAnalystwx13:

There's always one storm that vastly exceeds exceptions, and one storm that vastly underachieves exceptions. Estelle is the latter. Despite a great upper-level setup, moist environment, and seemingly warm ocean temperatures, the storm has struggled to strengthen further than 60kt--and it actually appears less organized than yesterday. It only has another day or so before it crosses the 26C isotherm, so the chances of it becoming stronger than a minimal hurricane, if that, are decreasing quickly. This is sharp contrast to model output from the HWRF, GFS, and ECMWF which indicated a Category 3 or 4 hurricane. The LGEM, which seemed like an outlier the other day when it showed a 60kt peak, was spot on.


They weren't showing that major storm earlier this week. They had it peaking at low end cat 2, IIRC .... which seemed quite reasonable to me.
my area is stage 4 drought and it will only become drier yet
Quoting 55. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

my area is stage 4 drought and it will only become drier yet


Where are your whereabouts,KEEPEROFTHEGATE? I'm In westBOca rAton,FL
north shore of lake Ontario
some call it scarberia
Quoting 50. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

hello little fella there waiting


?That's it? Just barely enough to reach south to Barbados .... SMH
Sea level rise usually pauses or even reverses for a time following an El Niño. Not this time. Sea level rose by more than 2.7 mm during the second quarter of 2016. Bad.

Interesting summer here so far in that Oklahoma's had lots of summer rain storms and brisk, warm winds. Hopefully will be OK going into the heat wave. Models don't seem to be blowing the high temps up so big here. Wheat's harvested. Corn still in the field. ahem

"I have spent more than one hot afternoon feeling the silky, sweet, softness of "corn breath" on my skin."
yeah...that sounds better...


Talk about corn breath!
Quoting 22. washingtonian115:





Lovely, not. The Gulf can support a Patricia through landfall.
Quoting 54. BahaHurican:

Supposed to be a couple of troughs, then a Twave passing through the area over the next 5 days .... even with a pretty hefty high we can end up with at least scattered showers.
They weren't showing that major storm earlier this week. They had it peaking at low end cat 2, IIRC .... which seemed quite reasonable to me.

They began backing off yesterday morning, but still predicted a storm stronger than what we're dealing with currently.
65. SLU
Quoting 60. BaltimoreBrian:

Sea level rise usually pauses or even reverses for a time following an El Niño. Not this time. Sea level rose by more than 2.7 mm during the second quarter of 2016. Bad.




At this breakneck speed it will take exactly 819,234 years and 8 months for the sea to rise up to the peak of Mount Everest. Time to press the panic button!
looking at new ebikes now they getting better looking anyway


Raining here again. Third shower of the day ....

Quoting 57. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

north shore of lake Ontario

ridiculously lacking rain here ... west end of lake Ontario ... Burlington
Quoting 65. SLU:



At this breakneck speed it will take exactly 819,234 years and 8 months for the sea to rise up to the peak of Mount Everest. Time to press the panic button!

Except that no one lives on MT Everest and over half of the US and much of the worlds population lives near the coast some 28,000 or so feet lower than Everest.
Quoting 65. SLU:

At this breakneck speed it will take exactly 819,234 years and 8 months for the sea to rise up to the peak of Mount Everest. Time to press the panic button!
3 police officers were killed in Baton Rouge yesterday. With 1,100,000 law enforcement personnel in the USA, it would take 1,003 years 11 months to kill them all. Time to push the panic button (or not, according to SLU)
Mid-level RH values near 50%. Ocean temperatures near 23C. Basically unphased. The upper-level environment is everything.

Quoting 68. Melagoo:


ridiculously lacking rain here ... west end of lake Ontario ... Burlington


we even missed out on what little its been sprinkles or heavy mist one heavy downpour since o june 30th or so with more heat in the forecast its not looking too good

can't wait for mid august and that normal summer time switch up too cooler wetter conditions on the heels of a severe frontal passage to usher it in
thinking about buying the beast looks like fun
Quoting 67. BahaHurican:

Raining here again. Third shower of the day ....




We also got 3 showers :) But moderate at best.
Quoting 46. HurricaneFan:

GFS Ensembles also picking up a bit on the development near Cape Verde.



All I can see is a relentless Ridge continuing
00z GFS still shows the wave exiting Africa on the 27th but does not show development (yet)
Quoting 76. HurricaneFan:

00z GFS still shows the wave exiting Africa on the 27th but does not show development (yet)


It looks like it just slows down developement of the T wave we should moniter this closely
2016 wunderbloggers convention group photo.




00z GFS has the wave taking on a more westward rather than a northwestward track, and not developing. Oh well, looks like we have a ghost storm alert.
And the wait continues (.3.)............... Honestly my life of tracking tropical cyclones before my knowledge of forecast models was much better. Much less let downs imo.
Quoting 74. CaribBoy:



We also got 3 showers :) But moderate at best.
I also got 3 showers today, all in my bathroom! !
We got about 1/3" of rain from a thundershower early Sunday afternoon and overall the pattern seems to be trending toward more humid and showery, despite chronic below normal rain chances. Still, based on the forecast conditions over the next few weeks (as discussed in Dr. Master's entry), I think we will see more of the same through at least the rest of July, with almost daily passing showers and very widely scattered thunderstorm activity that will continue to lead to below normal rainfall. I bet the first half of August is going to be (continued) HOT, even at night. Early August seems to be the time of year here where one is most likely to experience temps still in the 83-88F range, even late at night.
Quoting 79. Patrap:

2016 wunderbloggers convention group photo.




No women at the wonderbloggers convention?
Hey guys good morning

Currently having one hell of thunderstorms and gusty wind and heavy rain
Lightning and thunder like I don't know what I'm having lightening strike ground less than 75-50feet from me
So far the latest GFS showing developement but weak at this time


Here's a high-res aerial photo of an amazing microburst over south Phoenix #azwx #monsoon
3TV Phoenix, CBS 5 News, NWS Phoenix and Penguin Air


Link
06z GFS.
cooling ocean winds past couple days have been keeping the temps moderate here on the east coast of florida. 90 max. looks like more of the same today
It looks like the summer heat predictions were on the money http://people.fas.harvard.edu/~mckinnon/pep.html

Quoting 70. BaltimoreBrian:

3 police officers were killed in Baton Rouge yesterday.


It was Sunday, not yesterday.
Quoting 60. BaltimoreBrian:

Sea level rise usually pauses or even reverses for a time following an El Niño. Not this time. Sea level rose by more than 2.7 mm during the second quarter of 2016. Bad.




Greenland’s Contribution to Sea Level Rise Doubled During 2011-2014 — Larger Melt Pulses on the Horizon

According to a new report, the Greenland Ice Sheet lost one trillion tons of water due to melt during the four-year period from 2011 through 2014. That’s about double the typical rate of loss during the 1990s through mid-2000s. Subsequently, Greenland’s contribution to sea-level rise also doubled. As a result, Greenland alone contributed 0.75 mm of sea-level rise every year during the 2011 to 2014 period.

Link
Quoting 75. yankees440:



All I can see is a relentless Ridge continuing
Yes, but the ridge is relocating further North, and weakening a little, s less SAL.
Looks like it dies at the end of the run.
Quoting 89. Climate175:


Good morning all ...


Quoting 74. CaribBoy:



We also got 3 showers :) But moderate at best.
Three is better than none attoll, attoll .. lol ... They've been enough to keep the afternoon heat from wiping me out, so I'll take 'em ...

Quoting 84. unknowncomic:

No women at the wonderbloggers convention?
I expect all the women are in the back using the high tech toys, while you guys watch the game .... and sing.
Quoting 92. MahFL:



It was Sunday, not yesterday.
Yesterday Sunday was yesterday.
Quoting 95. hurricanewatcher61:

Looks like it dies at the end of the run.
More interesting to me is it looks like the ITCZ has moved up near 10N by that point .... another sign the high is easing off a bit, among other things.
No doubt a potent African Wave.
Today's morning pass over Russia , notice the dirty browns in the smoke, the ground is really burning -

Terra/MODIS
2016/201
07/19/2016
05:55 UTC


Link
06z GFS ensembles, it appears some ensembles have this going towards Bermuda, the Bahamas, or out to sea,
Huge swaths of Russia’s forests are ablaze during what may be a record fire season

Link
Meh.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 14N43W 01N42W, moving
westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation: widely
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 11N to 13N between 45W
and 50W.

A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 64W/65W from 21N southward,
moving westward 10 to 15 KNOTS. Convective precipitation:
scattered moderate to isolated strong from 12N to 15N between 59W
and 62W.
Quoting 65. SLU:



At this breakneck speed it will take exactly 819,234 years and 8 months for the sea to rise up to the peak of Mount Everest. Time to press the panic button!


Besides the absurd hyperbole, sea level rise isn't linear. I think we need a statistics refresher.
And this is me. Looks like some rain tomorrow and Thursday, but apparently not from that Twave, which looks like it's going to follow last week's and take a dive into Guyana and Venezuela ....

...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN...

Broad cyclonic wind flow from an upper level inverted trough
spans the Caribbean Sea and the Atlantic Ocean from 16N northward
between 57W and 80W. A surface trough is along 69W/70W, from 21N to 29N,
based on surface observations. Convective precipitation: scattered
moderate to strong from 20N to 23N between 67W and 73W in the
southeastern Bahamas. Isolated moderate is from 20N northward
between 63W and 80W.
Does this heat wave have any implications on potential curvature of any August storms that will form? I'm wondering if it will push them south (toward Mexico) or curve them out to see before they get to the US
The tundra burning in the big Russian gas producing region -

Aqua/MODIS
2016/201
07/19/2016
07:50 UTC

Link
sea level rise is a forecast
The area covered by smoke is just nuts, thousands and thousands of square miles -
Aqua/MODIS
2016/201
07/19/2016
07:45 UTC

Link
111. MahFL
Quoting 109. islander101010:

sea level rise is a forecast


Don't let that 0.4mm drown you...
Wow looking at the blogs it seems that my area around here in Wisconsin has had the only normalish summer. We have not got any of the heat the rest of the country has had,it's been kinda wet, and when it has been hot it's only hot for like 2-3 days and then cools down.Case in point this next heat wave. we are only getting Thursday and Friday then a Front moves through and we are back in the low 80's. While everyone else is getting this one for what a week or so right?
I have to say .... there's whole bunches of super interesting things going on in all kinds of wx related research and development .... what a great time to be getting into the field!

Quoting 112. Geoboy645:

Wow looking at the blogs it seems that my area around here in Wisconsin has had the only normalish summer. We have not got any of the heat the rest of the country has had,it's been kinda wet, and when it has been hot it's only hot for like 2-3 days and then cools down.Case in point this next heat wave. we are only getting Thursday and Friday then a Front moves through and we are back in the low 80's. While everyone else is getting this one for what a week or so right?
Seems like whatever fronts are passing by are staying up north there by you. I think Washington has been getting them to some extent as well. Otherwise the cooler air seems to be staying north in Canada ...
Quoting 109. islander101010:

sea level rise is a forecast

Except when it's a very accurate measurement of observed events :


Greenland’s Contribution to Sea Level Rise Doubled During 2011-2014

According to a new report, the Greenland Ice Sheet lost one trillion tons of water due to melt during the four-year period from 2011 through 2014.
Link
If the huge upper-level blocking high pressure system remains in place over the central US during the month of August, this setup might steer a potential hurricane getting into the GOM, more westward into the coast of Texas or Mexico. Or .. it could turn northeastward over Florida.

With this setup, It would not be surprising to see a tropical system move up the Atlantic coast.

it would only take a few inches to really cause problems. luckily so far here in Merritt Isl. i dont see any change yet.
Quoting 109. islander101010:

sea level rise is a forecast


No, it's a projection. A forecast is when you say there is a certain probability something will happen unconditionally, a projection is saying that if a scenario continues, we can expect something to happen with a certain probability. For instance, sea level rise based on different RCP scenarios



Please feel free to read Chapter 13 of the IPCC report for a better understanding of the factors and projections, linked here.

Quoting 111. MahFL:



Don't let that 0.4mm drown you...


There you go dismissing impacts again, please see above, thanks.
Quoting 118. islander101010:

it would only take a few inches to really cause problems. luckily so far here in Merritt Isl. i dont see any change yet.


I have previously linked to the local sea level rise report for your area multiple times for you. Local rises will be different from global projections. For example, the area around which you live has a natural protection against sea level rise that is well documented. Not all areas, even in Florida, have that unique topography.
Quoting 118. islander101010:

it would only take a few inches to really cause problems. luckily so far here in Merritt Isl. i dont see any change yet.


Where does your fresh water supply come from ?
Good Morning; here is the current forecast for the US highs today at 5:00 pm EST: Welcome to the Jurassic summer.................

Jurassic climates can be reconstructed from the analyses of fossil and sediment distribution and from geochemical analyses. Fossils of warm-adapted plants are found up to 60 N and 60 S paleolatitude, suggesting an expanded tropical zone. In higher paleolatitudes, ferns and other frost-sensitive plants indicate that there was a less severe temperature difference between the Equator and the poles than exists today.




"Further to the northeast, in Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, corn planting was delayed due to the cool, wet May. "

Cool, wet May? Not in Ohio. It was slightly warmer and drier than normal.
A Dreaded Forecast for Our Times: Algae, and Lots of It

In 2014, Congress reauthorized the Harmful Algal Bloom and Hypoxia Research and Control Act, originally passed in 1998, to encourage more research. But the measure didn’t actually provide funding; it only signaled the need for it.

So money for algal bloom science comes from more general federal science funds, and those pots are shrinking. Congressionally approved funding for a broad range of related science is around $9 million this year, down 45 percent from five years ago, according to several scientists involved in the research. That means less money for deploying sensors or even to pay for boats and crews to monitor the shorelines.

“It’s a paradox,” said Christopher Gobler, a professor of marine sciences at Stony Brook University who provides the data for Mr. Korbel’s weekly report and believes the field should be more mainstream. “We need it more than ever, and we’ve brought ourselves to the precipice of making great forecasts, but we can’t make it happen.”


LinkVera Trainer, a NOAA scientist in Seattle who studies algal blooms, had to ask for volunteers to go on a research expedition to study algal concentrations in the Pacific Ocean because she did not have the money to send her own staff.

“I feel like a beggar,” she said.
**Yawn!**

Nice to see some reporting on the midwest for a change. It often feels as if we get forgotten. Of course we don't have hurricanes and rarely tornadic activity in Michigan, so maybe no news is good news.
Quoting 124. ClimateChange:

"Further to the northeast, in Wisconsin, Indiana, Ohio, and Michigan, corn planting was delayed due to the cool, wet May. "

Cool, wet May? Not in Ohio. It was slightly warmer and drier than normal.
Northwest Ohio as of last week, July 4th weekend had plenty of corn fields where the corn was only 6-8 inches high.
Quoting 113. BahaHurican:

I have to say .... there's whole bunches of super interesting things going on in all kinds of wx related research and development .... what a great time to be getting into the field!




There haven't been any bad times to get into Meteorology since at least the 1940s. Progress has been continuous and rapid. I was excited about all of the new changes and codificaton of patterns and observed phenomena into solid theory, back in the late 1970s and it's been one exciting ride of head stretching improvement since then!
Quoting 128. oldmickey:

Northwest Ohio as of last week, July 4th weekend had plenty of corn fields where the corn was only 6-8 inches high.


I don't grow field corn. I grow sweetcorn for the family table here in DC and try to have it continuously from mid June through October. Last safe planting date is around July 24 but I usually try (and fail) with an August 1 planting. I have corn now in all stages from just seeded to 6" high to tasselling, to just picked and in the fridge.
Quoting 82. tom1516:

I also got 3 showers today, all in my bathroom! !


Conditions in summer can deteriorate rapidly when showers stop.
2.71 IN of rain yesterday set an all time record for 7/18 at IND. It was a-comin down at 0530. The air is thick and should be unbearable on 7/22. They cancelled football conditioning for the boy on that day. Smart move.

It will be interesting to see this wave off Africa's path, and affect the High has on it. I'm more concerned with conditions (steering, shear, Bermuda High) than a model at 270 hours+. The pattern is important right now, not necessarily the strength of the wave. imo.
Quoting 100. Climate175:

06z GFS ensembles, it appears some ensembles have this going towards Bermuda, the Bahamas, or out to sea,


No happy with that :/
Quoting 133. CaribBoy:



No happy with that :/
It is very early, we first need to keep seeing if more runs of the GFS hold this, and when this wave does come off in 8 days, see if it becomes an invest and then see the spaghetti models on it.
Well....received 2" of rain at my place yesterday. That erases the flash drought for a few days.
136. SLU
...DARBY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL STORM...

8:00 AM PDT Tue Jul 19
Location: 19.8°N 135.4°W
Moving: WNW at 12 mph
Min pressure: 991 mb
Max sustained: 70 mph
convection seems to be increasing with an area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave southeast of the cape verde islands.conditions appear to be somewhat favourable as the system moves west.
Quoting 132. MonsterTrough:

2.71 IN of rain yesterday set an all time record for 7/18 at IND. It was a-comin down at 0530. The air is thick and should be unbearable on 7/22. They cancelled football conditioning for the boy on that day. Smart move.

It will be interesting to see this wave off Africa's path, and affect the High has on it. I'm more concerned with conditions (steering, shear, Bermuda High) than a model at 270 hours+. The pattern is important right now, not necessarily the strength of the wave. imo.
Forecast, I agree, goes more to pattern than incident. Basically conditions currently occurring are borne out by forecast, at least for another 10 days or so ....
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 2m
Strongest African easterly wave (AE) of the season passing the Prime Meridian. GFS spins up second AEW on its heels.
Michael Ventrice ‏@MJVentrice 9m
Strong CCKW passage o/the Atlantic recently.. Some risk for trop cyclogen o/MDR per GEFS. ECMWF not buying it
Quoting 137. stoormfury:

convection seems to be increasing with an area of disturbed weather associated with a tropical wave southeast of the cape verde islands.conditions appear to be somewhat favourable as the system moves west.
It's not on the SFC maps yet ....

Looking at the forecast for Friday, it does seem the ridge extending from the AB high is expected to retreat eastward for a while.... so we may see that Twave move further north than others have been ...

Quoting 140. bigwes6844:


Strong one there off the coast.
Michael Lowry ‏@MichaelRLowry 53m53 minutes ago
Waters in Tampa Bay reached 95 degrees last week per @noaaocean gauge. 95. Degrees.

I wonder how that feels like.
Quoting 143. Climate175:

Strong one there off the coast.

Check out our friend Mr SAL
Quoting 144. washingtonian115:

Michael Lowry ‏@MichaelRLowry 53m53 minutes ago
Waters in Tampa Bay reached 95 degrees last week per @noaaocean gauge. 95. Degrees.

I wonder how that feels like.
Quoting 145. bigwes6844:


Check out our friend Mr SAL

That one is not my focus, one that will be over Ghana in 5 days is.
Here is today's ENSO Update from the Aussies: looks like the models are backing off from La Nina but given the fact that we are about to go into August, looking like potential Neutral conditions for the peak of the Atlantic hurricane season.


ENSO neutral, negative Indian Ocean Dipole strengthens

ENSO indicators in the Pacific Ocean remain neutral, while sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean show a strong negative Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD).

Latest values of the IOD index show the dipole has strengthened in recent weeks. Climate models indicate the negative IOD will persist through to the end of spring. A negative IOD typically brings above average rainfall to southern Australia during winter-spring, with cooler daytime temperatures across southern Australia, and warmer daytime and night-time temperatures in northern Australia. Find out more about the Indian Ocean Dipole on our website.

In the tropical Pacific Ocean, recent model outlooks indicate a reduced chance of La Niña in 2016. Most climate models indicate the central Pacific Ocean will continue to cool, but only two of eight models show La Niña values through the southern spring. Recent observations of cloudiness, trade winds and the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) show little change from normal patterns. These observations, combined with current climate model outlooks, means the Bureau's ENSO Outlook remains at La Niña WATCH. This means the likelihood of La Niña forming in 2016 remains a 50% chance.

A few photos of the slow moving water spout over the Oso Bay in Corpus Christi TX this morning on the Kiii news station site.

http://www.kiiitv.com/story/32478264/tornado-warn ing-issued-for-parts-of-nueces-county

150. IDTH
.
While from an older article from the 2006 Journal of Climate (ENSO's Impact on Regional US Hurricane Activity), an Enso neutral year means that Florida needs to be on alert this coming year based on climatology:


Finally, the authors note that the only occurrences from 1900 to 2005 of multiple major hurricane landfalls in Florida (Fig. 1b; Table 3) are during ENSO neutral years (1950, 2004, and 2005). Multiple major hurricane landfalls along the Gulf Coast (Fig. 1c; Table 3) are almost equally likely during the cold (1909 and 1916) and neutral (1915, 1926, and 2005) phases.
153. SLU
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi · 60s60 seconds ago  Pennsylvania, USA

Not much shear in the tropics on CIMSS Site
Dry air a crusher tho

154. IDTH
Quoting 117. Gearsts:



Nino 3.4 has cooled quite dramatically while the nino 1 and 2 regions warmed up quite a bit. A stark contrast from june and may when nino's 1 and 2 dramatically cooled but 3.4 was lagging behind.
Quoting 144. washingtonian115:

Michael Lowry ‏@MichaelRLowry 53m53 minutes ago
Waters in Tampa Bay reached 95 degrees last week per @noaaocean gauge. 95. Degrees.

I wonder how that feels like.


I can confirm that temp... it's too hot to even be at the beach right now. I'm staying put in the A/C for now!
Of course, the stats noted below as to major hurricane strikes for the US do not take into account the remarkable strike free period, including several enso neutral ones, we have seen for the past several seasons; that is a remarkable anomaly. From Dr. Klotzbach's Twitter Feed today:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach  1h1 hour agoWalnut Creek, CA

3921 days since last FL hurricane impact (Wilma, 2005). Prior record - 2191 days from David ('79) to Elena ('85).


And from a July 14th post by Dr. Klotzbach:

@philklotzbachJul 14

3 of 32 Atlantic major hurricanes made US landfall from 1995-2003, 7 of 13 from '04-'05 and 0 of 26 from '06-'15.

Phil should really try the google as Elena 85 did not landfall in Florida at all.

It came in at Gulfport as a major.


Hottest day of the year with it reaching 33C (91.5F) so far. Some places might reach 35C (95F). Certainly glad these temeratures aren't normal for UK summers, I don't think I could live in this heat. Night time low forecast to be 23C (73.5F) - going to be a very unpleasant night for sleeping and not far off the record high minimum temperature.

There's a yellow weather warning for rain across much of the UK, with severe thunderstorms expected overnight tonight and into tomorrow. They could cause localised flooding in places, with hail and lots of lightning. Perhaps even a tornado or two.
Quoting 145. bigwes6844:


Check out our friend Mr SAL


One of the more humorous SAL images I have seen. A T-wave could be quite intimidated by that.
Africa looks pretty primed at the moment for an active t-wave period over the next few weeks regardless of the SAL levels:


Quoting 157. weathermanwannabe:

Of course, the stats noted below as to major hurricane strikes for the US do not take into account the remarkable strike free period, including several enso neutral ones, we have seen for the past several seasons; that is a remarkable anomaly. From Dr. Klotzbach's Twitter Feed today:

Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach  1h1 hour agoWalnut Creek, CA

3921 days since last FL hurricane impact (Wilma, 2005). Prior record - 2191 days from David ('79) to Elena ('85).





With everyday that passes, the false sense of security rises among those who do not take much notice of the weather [Basically see it as only a beach day killer]; and with that rise in false sense of security comes the rise of the population with that false security. 1 more year of being hurricane free = 1 more year of a catastrophe being even more catastrophic than it would have been had it happened the year before. A Cat. 2 at the most would be most appreciated to set people in line.
164. IDTH
Oh man I hate when I accidentally click F5 in the middle of typing a comment.

So in attempt to salvage this comment I will explain again that the Atlantic is under a cap (similar to Tornado season) now, which is similar to the one the east pacific was under in June. We had waves in the ITCZ in June in the east pacific but there was too much sinking and I believe shear inhibiting any sort of development. We have the same thing in the Atlantic right now with dry sinking air over much of the Atlantic preventing any sort of further development of African waves and really all the atmosphere needs at this point to break this cap is more instability or a moistening of the atmosphere. Shear is relatively lower than normal, the waters are plenty warm (especially closer to home) and the waves off Africa are quite vigorous themselves.

These waves no matter what happens will continue to eradicate the SAL slowly as we inch our way towards the peak of the season, however, if we had something like the MJO approach our area of the world, that would only speed up the process of breaking the season open. That's why it's probably a good idea that we don't shout bust season in the middle of July.

Yes a lot of us including myself screwed up our July forecast but many of us believed the MJO was going to be here in July but that never happened. That's not to say it won't come back like many of us are thinking especially when the waters are ridiculously warmer across this area of the world than they have been in quite some time. The MJO will be back at some point and regardless of whether or not it comes back, the SAL will continue to lessen as we progress through the season and there are no strong trades to keep a lid on this season like 2013.
I think you all may finally get your wish to track something next week.My family and I will be leaving next Sunday to FL for vacation.I have a bad history when it comes to vacation and nature ruining our plans.I am just hoping for pop up storm for the most part as those are almost inevitable at this time of year in FL.
My oldest Daughter is moving to Mass the first week of August for a year and I am driving the U-Haul thing up I-95 from Atlanta that week and getting her settled in; won't be tracking the canes that week on the blog but checking my phone apps in case something pops in the Atlantic and thinking of Yall...................... :)
Quoting 159. Patrap:

Phil should really try the google as Elena 85 did not landfall in Florida at all.

It came in at Gulfport as a major.





He wrote impact not necessarily landfall, unless he edited it afterwards. Elena did do a number on the Florida Gulf Coast, though not quite as bad as Mississippi and Louisiana. Still a bit misleading as he is talking about two different situations. If we're talking about landfall from a hurricane, then after Hurricane David it would be Hurricane Floyd in 1987. If we're talking DIRECT landfall the I think Andrew in 1992 would be it. 13 year gap.
Quoting 160. Envoirment:

Hottest day of the year with it reaching 33C (91.5F) so far. Some places might reach 35C (95F). Certainly glad these temeratures aren't normal for UK summers, I don't think I could live in this heat. Night time low forecast to be 23C (73.5F) - going to be a very unpleasant night for sleeping and not far off the record high minimum temperature.

There's a yellow weather warning for rain across much of the UK, with severe thunderstorms expected overnight tonight and into tomorrow. They could cause localised flooding in places, with hail and lots of lightning. Perhaps even a tornado or two.


It must be terrible when you are not used to it. We have been having an incredibly hot summer in south Florida. We have 3 settings on our thermostat now. Cold, very cold, and hysterical.
Quoting 167. ElConando:



He wrote impact not necessarily landfall, unless he edited it afterwards. Elena did do a number on the Florida Gulf Coast, though not quite as bad as Mississippi and Louisiana. Still a bit misleading as he is talking about two different situations. If we're talking about landfall from a hurricane, then after Hurricane David it would be Hurricane Floyd in 1987. If we're talking DIRECT landfall the I think Andrew in 1992 would be it. 13 year gap.


Looks like a pretty dang good impact to me

Quoting 168. Grothar:



It must be terrible when you are not used to it. We have been having an incredibly hot summer in south Florida. We have 3 settings on our thermostat now. Cold, very cold, and hysterical.

This pretty much sums it up from the Blog post; along with the odds that the U.S. will notch its hottest summer on record, in line with what’s very likely to be Earth’s warmest year on record). 
It never made landfall in fla.....Elena.

I know as it was my 2nd major in 20 years.

I garnered 7 eyewall hours then bringing my total to 15 hours.


Andrew killed in Louisiana too I always add for that 92' A storm as well.
Quoting 160. Envoirment:

Hottest day of the year with it reaching 33C (91.5F) so far. Some places might reach 35C (95F). Certainly glad these temeratures aren't normal for UK summers, I don't think I could live in this heat. Night time low forecast to be 23C (73.5F) - going to be a very unpleasant night for sleeping and not far off the record high minimum temperature.

There's a yellow weather warning for rain across much of the UK, with severe thunderstorms expected overnight tonight and into tomorrow. They could cause localised flooding in places, with hail and lots of lightning. Perhaps even a tornado or two.


Speaking of London, temperatures are supposed to be back down in the 70s for highs by Thursday. So only one more day to deal with the heat.
Last week, London had 3 days with highs only in the 60s. That would be too cold for me to enjoy the Summer.
All that bs about no majors landfaling since 2008,or 2005 is all based on the terribly outdated and outmoded SSS.


The SSS is not suited for impact scaling as it was designed for wind loading on structures and does not relate surge values at all properly.
12z GFS.
Quoting 173. Patrap:

All that bs about no majors landfaling since 2008,or 2005 is all based on the terribly outdated and outmoded SSS.


The SSS is not suited for impact scaling as it was designed for wind loading on structures and does not relate surge values at all properly.


But its compared to the same system that has been used historically, so in terms of the records of land falling majors in historical context it should be the same scale.
Where's the CCKW now?
The SSS is phools gold.

Thus the inland hurricane warning and separate storm surge values warnings finally being used officially by the NHC.

The past is not my worry as to any single storm.

Its the one out there to come.

That's why a good evac and home prep plan is a must.
The wave is killed because of dry air while east pacific remains active
Quoting 159. Patrap:

Phil should really try the google as Elena 85 did not landfall in Florida at all.

It came in at Gulfport as a major.





A Hurricane's eye does not always have to cross over a particular land area or city to be classified as a landfall or a hit for that one area. Elena produced Hurricane force conditions in Pensacola with 90-MPH wind gusts. So in a certain respect we could say it did make landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The center of the Great Florida Keys Hurricane of 1919 only came as close as 30 to 40 south of KeyWest but produced winds well in excess of 100-MPH in that southern most city. As long as the eyewall of the Hurricane effects any one area to a certain degree, (with Hurricane force conditions) it can sometimes be classified as a landfall.
Eastern Pacific has already produced more ACE than the entire 2015 North Atlantic hurricane season.
Quoting 181. HurriHistory:
A Hurricane's eye does not always have to cross over a particular land area or city to be classified as a landfall or a hit for that one area. Elena produced Hurricane force conditions in Pensacola with 90-MPH wind gusts. So in a certain respect we could say it did make landfall in the Florida Panhandle. The center of the Great Florida Keys Hurricane of 1919 only came as close as 30 to 40 south of KeyWest but produced winds well in excess of 100-MPH in that southern most city. As long as the eyewall of the Hurricane effects any one area to a certain degree, (with Hurricane force conditions) it can sometimes be classified as a landfall.
The term "landfall" is defined by the NHC as "The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline." So by that strict definition, a hurricane's eye does indeed "have to cross over a particular land area or city to be classified as a landfall"--meaning that 1985's Elena cannot be said to have made landfall in Florida. (OTOH, the center of 1919's Great Florida Keys Hurricane passed directly over Dry Tortugas, so it did indeed have a Florida landfall.)

The terms "hit" (direct or indirect) and "strike" have specific meanings, as well:

DIRECT HIT: A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind.

INDIRECT HIT: Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least 4 feet above normal.

STRIKE: For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.


Quoting 165. washingtonian115:

I think you all may finally get your wish to track something next week.My family and I will be leaving next Sunday to FL for vacation.I have a bad history when it comes to vacation and nature ruining our plans.I am just hoping for pop up storm for the most part as those are almost inevitable at this time of year in FL.
How far down are you going? Or are you just doing the Orlando thing?
Does anyone know if there are records for the warmest sea surface temperature within a body of water, or worldwide for that matter? There was a station in Tampa Bay that recorded a 95 degree SST, and I want to know if that's record breaking or not.

Thanks for your help in advance,
FM
Quoting 183. Neapolitan:

The term "landfall" is defined by the NHC as "The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline." So by that strict definition, a hurricane's eye does indeed "have to cross over a particular land area or city to be classified as a landfall".

The terms "hit" (direct or indirect) and "strike" have specific meanings, as well:

DIRECT HIT: A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind.

INDIRECT HIT: Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least 4 feet above normal.

STRIKE: For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.



Greetings Nea..Great post. Many people have lost everything from a direct hit, but not a landfall. Even indirect effects have concluded with disastrous results.
Quoting 185. fmhurricane2009:

Does anyone know if there are records for the warmest sea surface temperature within a body of water, or worldwide for that matter? There was a station in Tampa Bay that recorded a 95 degree SST, and I want to know if that's record breaking or not.

Thanks for your help in advance,
FM
If you happen to have access to an internet connected device you could probably find out as quick as the rest of us.
Quoting 184. JNFlori30A:

How far down are you going? Or are you just doing the Orlando thing?

Fort Lauderdale.
Quoting 173. Patrap:

All that bs about no majors landfaling since 2008,or 2005 is all based on the terribly outdated and outmoded SSS.


The SSS is not suited for impact scaling as it was designed for wind loading on structures and does not relate surge values at all properly.

Amen, Sandy on the chart posted here just the other day made #2 on the all time hit list. Wind is very bad, but water weights 8.6 lbs per gallon.
Quoting 187. JNFlori30A:

If you happen to have access to an internet connected device you could probably find out as quick as the rest of us.


I've spent 10 minutes looking, so I was curious if someone who has more hydrological knowledge than I knows something that I do not.
Quoting 190. RobertWC:


Amen, Sandy on the chart posted here just the other day made #2 on the all time hit list. Wind is very bad, but water weights 8.6 lbs per gallon.


Have there been any alternative scales proposed that would be better suited to potential impacts a given storm may have on a geographic region?
Impacts from storm surge are a huge issue for the Florida Big Bend Coast South of Tallahassee (St. Marks to Appalachicola) from "passing" storms on the way to landfall in the Panhandle because of the topography; we might have sustaned TS winds at the coast with a hurricane on the way to landfall in Panama City or to their West causing minimal wind damage. However, may coastal homes, restaurants, and coastal roads (like Hwy 98) are routinely washed away/sustain severe storm surge damage even though land fall is 100 miles away or more.
Quoting 160. Envoirment:

Hottest day of the year with it reaching 33C (91.5F) so far. Some places might reach 35C (95F). Certainly glad these temeratures aren't normal for UK summers, I don't think I could live in this heat. Night time low forecast to be 23C (73.5F) - going to be a very unpleasant night for sleeping and not far off the record high minimum temperature.

There's a yellow weather warning for rain across much of the UK, with severe thunderstorms expected overnight tonight and into tomorrow. They could cause localised flooding in places, with hail and lots of lightning. Perhaps even a tornado or two.

For Holland another 30+ day (perhaps tipping 35° C somewhere) tomorrow, also a trough as of early afternoon and thundery by late afternoon/evening. Then, cooler (whew).
Nothing special really, annual average is 3-4 of such days here. A record month (e.g. July 2006) may produce a dozen and a couple.
Quoting 182. NoobDave:

Eastern Pacific has already produced more ACE than the entire 2015 North Atlantic hurricane season.

I think it would be remiss not to acknowledge StormTrackerScott. He said El Nino like conditions would persist well into the midpoint of the Atlantic hurricane season.
Quoting 183. Neapolitan:

The term "landfall" is defined by the NHC as "The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline." So by that strict definition, a hurricane's eye does indeed "have to cross over a particular land area or city to be classified as a landfall"--meaning that 1985's Elena cannot be said to have made landfall in Florida. (OTOH, the center of 1919's Great Florida Keys Hurricane passed directly over Dry Tortugas, so it did indeed have a Florida landfall.)

The terms "hit" (direct or indirect) and "strike" have specific meanings, as well:

DIRECT HIT: A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind.

INDIRECT HIT: Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least 4 feet above normal.

STRIKE: For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.





Then I'd have to say Elena was an Indirect hit in the Pensacola area. It's nice that you took the time to post this information. And yes, I did fail to overlook the fact that the Great 1919 Hurricane did indeed cross over the Dry Tortugas so that storm was a hit for the state of Florida.
Quoting 191. fmhurricane2009:



I've spent 10 minutes looking, so I was curious if someone who has more hydrological knowledge than I knows something that I do not.

Do you mean Ocean temperature? Otherwise there are naturally occurring boiling lakes so at least 212 F
The tropical waves at 5 East and 30 East, could be the first signs of tropical activity in the MDR as early as end of July --first week in August.,
Quoting 159. Patrap:
Phil should really try the google as Elena 85 did not landfall in Florida at all.

It came in at Gulfport as a major.




Maybe they counted it as a landfall when it narrowly went past Apalachicola!
Quoting 162. weathermanwannabe:
Africa looks pretty primed at the moment for an active t-wave period over the next few weeks regardless of the SAL levels:




Those waves for the next couple of weeks are probably going to prime the area for the waves we see in August. It's going to take a few big waves to put a dent in the SAL and then it could be trouble.
201. SLU
Some of the GFS ensemble members are very aggressive on this run even showing pressures at low as 986mb with the storm by the time it reaches 60W. Probably won't happen but at least it's a sign that the waves could be more vigorous in the next few weeks.


Ensembles still showing a little development near Cape Verde. I would not be surprised if a weak tropical cyclone did form in the MDR sometime in late July or early August due to the passing CCKW.
203. SLU


12z ensembles picking up on development more than 06z.
206. IDTH
Quoting 195. Llamaluvr:

I think it would be remiss not to acknowledge StormTrackerScott. He said El Nino like conditions would persist well into the midpoint of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Except it's not even the mid point yet.
Quoting 169. VAbeachhurricanes:


Looks like a pretty dang good impact to me



Pretty sure that qualifies as a landfall anytime any part of the eye goes over land.
The entire 1914 Hurricane season. So don't complain!!!!






Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code
209. beell
Quoting 177. Adam2001:

Where's the CCKW now?



It is usually found where ever there is no tropical activity.

;-/
One of the great disasters of our time is unfolding as I type. The other day Neven put up a great post about lighting moving North. Iced lightning.

It seems the sea ice used to tamp down the storms in the summer, and their ability in the Arctic to produce lighting over land.

That has changed .

I first saw this 9 years ago when The Anaktuvuk River fire
was started by lighting . It was the largest tundra fire in the last 5,000 years in that region.

But today the fires in Russia , make the Anaktuvuk River fire look like a marsh mellow roast . And they are burning over the richest gas deposits the Russians have. Think I'm crazy ? Go down to the 250 meter resolution , and look at this, this is a big deal.
Aqua/MODIS
2016/201
07/19/2016
07:50 UTC
Fires and smoke in central Russia

Link








Quoting 195. Llamaluvr:

I think it would be remiss not to acknowledge StormTrackerScott. He said El Nino like conditions would persist well into the midpoint of the Atlantic hurricane season.


There have not been El-Nino conditions for quite awhile. Maybe I just didn't get the joke?
A whole lotta nothing out there

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191724
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts

Quoting 168. Grothar:



It must be terrible when you are not used to it. We have been having an incredibly hot summer in south Florida. We have 3 settings on our thermostat now. Cold, very cold, and hysterical.



When it gets hot enough, the only relevant thermostat setting is "on"
Quoting 183. Neapolitan:

The term "landfall" is defined by the NHC as "The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline." So by that strict definition, a hurricane's eye does indeed "have to cross over a particular land area or city to be classified as a landfall"--meaning that 1985's Elena cannot be said to have made landfall in Florida. (OTOH, the center of 1919's Great Florida Keys Hurricane passed directly over Dry Tortugas, so it did indeed have a Florida landfall.)

The terms "hit" (direct or indirect) and "strike" have specific meanings, as well:

DIRECT HIT: A close approach of a tropical cyclone to a particular location. For locations on the left-hand side of a tropical cyclone's track (looking in the direction of motion), a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to the cyclone's radius of maximum wind. For locations on the right-hand side of the track, a direct hit occurs when the cyclone passes to within a distance equal to twice the radius of maximum wind.

INDIRECT HIT: Generally refers to locations that do not experience a direct hit from a tropical cyclone, but do experience hurricane force winds (either sustained or gusts) or tides of at least 4 feet above normal.

STRIKE: For any particular location, a hurricane strike occurs if that location passes within the hurricane's strike circle, a circle of 125 n mi diameter, centered 12.5 n mi to the right of the hurricane center (looking in the direction of motion). This circle is meant to depict the typical extent of hurricane force winds, which are approximately 75 n mi to the right of the center and 50 n mi to the left.





Game, set, and match
215. IDTH
Quoting 195. Llamaluvr:

I think it would be remiss not to acknowledge StormTrackerScott. He said El Nino like conditions would persist well into the midpoint of the Atlantic hurricane season.

Except it's not the mid point of the season yet.
One of the great disasters of our time is unfolding as I type. The other day Neven put up a great post about lighting moving North. Iced lightning.

It seems the sea ice used to tamp down the storms in the summer, and their ability in the Arctic to produce lighting over land.

That has changed .

I first saw this 9 years ago when The Anaktuvuk River fire
was started by lighting . It was the largest tundra fire in the last 5,000 years in that region.

But today the fires in Russia , make the Anaktuvuk River fire look like a marsh mellow roast . And they are burning over the richest gas deposits the Russians have. Think I'm crazy ? Go down to the 250 meter resolution , and look at this, this is a big deal.
Aqua/MODIS
2016/201
07/19/2016
07:50 UTC
Fires and smoke in central Russia

Link









Now the EPAC is doing twins(right at the coastline)
Quoting 189. washingtonian115:

Fort Lauderdale.


Washi. Be on the corner of Las Olas and 9th and I'll drive by and wave. :)

YIKES...
Quoting 199. 69Viking:



Maybe they counted it as a landfall when it narrowly went past Apalachicola!


Quoting 183. Neapolitan:

The term "landfall" is defined by the NHC as "The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline." So by that strict definition, a hurricane's eye does indeed "have to cross over a particular land area or city to be classified as a landfall"--meaning that 1985's Elena cannot be said to have made landfall in Florida. (OTOH, the center of 1919's Great Florida Keys Hurricane passed directly over Dry Tortugas, so it did indeed have a Florida landfall.)
Blog is finally back up again

Will be interesting to see what happens with the Cape Verde wave next week.
anybody see the wave is getting organized better from Africa?
Looks like the GFS was right about this one the first time .... Twave runs into S. America ...



However, it's a pretty big one, so it could at least potentially bring some moisture to the Winwards .... and why is it leaning forward like that ????

CPC is mentioning at least a slight chance of Atlantic TC formation:
"Some models are indicating slight increase in the chances for tropical cyclone formation over the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean during the middle of Week-2, though confidence is low in that occurring."
Link
225. JRRP
Well, now .... this is looking more promising ...

Wer hat den Blog gebrochen?
228. IDTH
BLOG HOLE!
the tropical wave moving through the s.e. bahamas will have to be watched as if moves near Florida
test

At the tail end of the '12 heat wave in June was the Iowa- East Coast derecho, something to keep a lookout for.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weat her-gang/post/derecho-behind-washington-dcs-destru ctive-thunderstorm-outbreak-june-29-2012/2012/06/3 0/gJQA22O7DW_blog.html
the Euro has the wave that the GFS has been trying to develop on and off as a potent wave with a 1009 low associated with it when it leaves the coast...but because of dry air issues it doesn't develop the wave.
Blog hole?
235. JRRP
Quoting 213. georgevandenberghe:




When it gets hot enough, the only relevant thermostat setting is "on"


We were having issues last week and we couldn't get the temperature inside the house lower than 80 degrees in the afternoon. Called the AC repair guy to come out and our AC had a blockage in one of the 90 degree bends. He put in a new 90 degree bend and flushed the lines and now we can make the house 65 degrees (if we wanted) with it 92 degrees outside.
Quoting 215. IDTH:


Except it's not the mid point of the season yet.
True dat. We are as far from "peak day"--September 10--as we will be on November 1st, so it's a little early to be handing out laurels...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
vary nic CV wave this now comeing in too View




wind shear is not a issue for it










not march dry are or dust if any at all for this wave




i think this wave may be are 1st real CV wave too track whats see how it dos has it moves down the MDR
wave off Africa is looking good.

Quoting 212. 62901IL:

A whole lotta nothing out there

000
ABNT20 KNHC 191724
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT TUE JUL 19 2016

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 5 days.

$$
Forecaster Roberts




The wave that came off with structure has blown up really nice convection. Combine that with very low shear ahead, and the pattern change that's going to be right on time; it may be game on. Lot working against, likely couldn't get strong in the MDR, but it could survive, and be the next named storm. Time will tell.
Thank you, Dr. Masters for giving us this update. I am in western NC and have noticed a lack of rain that has us concerned, along with the heat that we are experiencing. This article is well written... it is precious and easy to understand. Please continue to update just how the rest of the summer trend will be.
Again, thanks for your sharing this information.

Sincerely,
Marcy
Quoting 220. Sfloridacat5:


Quoting 183. Neapolitan:

The term "landfall" is defined by the NHC as "The intersection of the surface center of a tropical cyclone with a coastline." So by that strict definition, a hurricane's eye does indeed "have to cross over a particular land area or city to be classified as a landfall"--meaning that 1985's Elena cannot be said to have made landfall in Florida. (OTOH, the center of 1919's Great Florida Keys Hurricane passed directly over Dry Tortugas, so it did indeed have a Florida landfall.)


The eye passed over the tip of Apalachicola, maybe the whole eye didn't pass over but they must have deemed at least half of it did because it's been classified as a landfall in Florida according to records.
Love the details ...
246. vis0

Quoting 65. SLU:



At this breakneck speed it will take exactly 819,234 years and 8 months for the sea to rise up to the peak of Mount Everest. Time to press the panic button!
By your method of calculating it would take a certain period of time in which the water would reach the moon...of course there is only a certain amount of water AND MOST IMPORTANT TO MOST PEOPLE  is not any visual peak that represents a high point but your front door.

So when in 8 -12 years more people have to dig into their savings to repair their flooded homes more often (be it ocean rising or higher moisture content storms created by cut off system in which one side has record wet other side record driness) you explain to them that its not big deal cause the water has not reach Mt Everest yet....i'll chip in for the Seadoo (watercraft) so you can get way via main street as they chase you.

Talk is cheap when ones conscience is removed - NYc Nut 1970s.
247. vis0

Quoting 110. RobertWC:

The area covered by smoke is just nuts, thousands and thousands of square miles -
Aqua/MODIS
2016/201
07/19/2016
07:45 UTC

Link
If it weren't sad i'd say maybe its sar2401 BBQng in sar2401 present hide-a-way-vacay...next year 2017, i hear sar2401 is going on the rock-n-roll cruise...wha! washi115 is going too so is Taz, patraps going to play crazy chords...OH OH c-a-t-6 in the horizon for that day
248. vis0

Quoting 165. washingtonian115:

I think you all may finally get your wish to track something next week.My family and I will be leaving next Sunday to FL for vacation.I have a bad history when it comes to vacation and nature ruining our plans.I am just hoping for pop up storm for the most part as those are almost inevitable at this time of year in FL.
actually what i've noticed is the "ruin" happens near the end of your vacations and the place you leave is where the storminess happens (not any single one persons fault just might be you have the 7th sense tuned in such a manner that leads to the higher odds to picking vacation dates JUST BEFORE THE ODDS RISE**. as with my mother feeling where danger will happen as to international acts of aggression. of course only Grothar has connections to do such

**How can that be possible?

We know of how some feel the change in not just pressure but the direction of changing (usually lowering) pressure do to the magnetic direction of whence the LOW is to develope from, that at most is a 2-3 day prediction "feeling". 

What if there are influences on weather via certain waves from space that trigger physical oscillations to change course or maximize. Then if a brain is tuned into those waves that person can feel those waves (i say, not in any scientific journal/study) at least 2 months out and up to a year out. i state each year in 8-11 yr cycles represents a certain dominant ROY G BIV "colour" NOT A REAL COLOUR but that magnetic waves "dance" can be categorized into 8 specific "dances" (8th colours looks like a  is Goldish hue and shimmers). i give each "dance: a ROY G BIV colour. Think of these waves as an N-E-S-W ascending AT START waves then there are the N-E-S-W descending AT START waves and the "goldish" hues represent the grounding for quantum to transfer energy via 2 parental dimensions of physics and galacsics, goldish is half ascending/half descending. To physics all you observe are waves not noticing that waves point of starting either from the "top" or from the "bottom"  ABRUPT END TO THIS PORTION

oops forgot i no longer teach i was just trying to explain how the brain "sees" deeper than physics as we only use the brain AS A WHOLE only 11.78% of it (as a while includes soul and spirit potions) though if one ONLY reads the physical portion of the brain we usually use 25%-35% and in deep thinking rise to 60%- 75% needing a third to 25% to cool off as if a heat sink.

LOOK WHAT washi115 made me do.

back to observing the ATL ending its pre-ballet warm-up classes? HUH? inside joke for the 5 that don't have me on ignore.
249. vis0

Quoting 168. Grothar:



It must be terrible when you are not used to it. We have been having an incredibly hot summer in south Florida. We have 3 settings on our thermostat now. Cold, very cold, and hysterical.
by the end of this week (here already? i'm catching up in blogs) you'll be LOWERING it to hysterical...for 2 hrs...during the nite.