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Could Climate Change Reduce the Frequency of Tracks Like Hurricane Sandy's?

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:14 PM GMT on September 03, 2013

We're used to seeing hurricane-battered beaches and flooded cities in Florida, North Carolina, and the Gulf Coast. But to see these images from the Jersey Shore and New York City in the wake of Hurricane Sandy was a shocking experience. New Jersey rarely gets hit by hurricanes, because it lies in a portion of the coast that doesn't stick out much, and is too far north. Hurricanes generally move from east to west in the tropics, where the prevailing trade winds blow that direction. But the prevailing wind direction reverses at mid-latitudes, due to the spin of the Earth, and the flow becomes predominately west-to-east. Hurricanes that penetrate to approximately Northern Florida's latitude typically get caught up in these westerly winds and are whisked northeastwards, out to sea. However, the jet stream, that powerful band of upper-atmosphere west-to-east flowing air, has many dips and bulges. These troughs of low pressure and ridges of high pressure allow winds at mid-latitudes to flow more in a south-to-north direction. Every so often, a trough in the jet stream bends back on itself when encountering a ridge of high pressure stuck in place ahead of it--a so-called "blocking high". According to NOAA's Climate Prediction Center, a "blocking high" near the longitude of Greenland (50°W) only occurs about 2% of the time in the fall, and can cause winds that flow from southeast to northwest over the Northeast U.S. It is this sort of unusual flow that sucked Sandy into New Jersey and allowed the hurricane to take the most perpendicular track into this section of coast of any tropical cyclone in the historical record (Hall and Sobel, 2013.) Using historical climate data, these scientists estimated that the return period of a Category 1 or stronger storm hitting New Jersey at such an odd angle was 1-in-700-years.


Figure 1. Tracks of all tropical storms and hurricanes to hit Southern New Jersey, 1851 - 2012. Hurricane Sandy had a track unprecedented in the historical record. Image created by TWC's Stu Ostro using data from NOAA/CSC.


Figure 2. Hurricane Sandy at 10:10 am EDT October 28, 2012. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Was climate change responsible for Sandy's unusual track?
Either Sandy was an extremely rare event, or else climate change has shifted the odds of such a track to make it more likely. A paper published on Monday in the Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences by Elizabeth Barnes of Colorado State and co-authors, "Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms", argues that our best climate models project we should see a decrease in the type of steering patterns that brought Sandy to the coast at such an unusual angle. Of the 22 models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report, 17 predict a decrease in the type of "blocking highs" responsible for Sandy's unusual track. Nineteen out of 22 of these models also predict that the jet stream will shift farther to the north, particularly in the fall. The authors argue that this jet stream shift will bring about a decrease in easterly winds south of Greenland, resulting in fewer Sandy-like storms hitting the Northeast U.S. However, Dr. Jennifer Francis, who has authored several studies linking Arctic sea ice loss to unusual jet stream patterns, noted in an email to me that "One of the strongest pieces of evidence for the study’s main conclusion is that easterly winds are projected to decrease in a large zone north of Newfoundland. The location of the strongest decreases, however, is north of the location of the block during Sandy, exactly in the region where stronger west winds would occur when blocks like this existed. This suggests that the pattern may actually cause an increase in unusually high pressures in the same location of the Sandy blocking high."


Figure 3. Jet stream winds at a pressure of 300 mb on October 29, 2012, as Hurricane Sandy approached the coast of New Jersey. Note that the wind direction over New Jersey (black arrows) was from the southeast, due to a negatively tilted trough of low pressure over the Eastern U.S. caused by a strong blocking ridge of high pressure over Greenland. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

Commentary
While the 2013 IPCC models used in the study are the best that we have, the uncertainties are very high in the sort of projected atmospheric changes the authors are analyzing. In the current climate, the models underestimate the frequency of the type of blocking high pressure systems that led to Sandy's unusual track. Thus, we should look with suspicion upon their predictions for a decrease in blocking highs in the future--something that Barnes et al. acknowledge in their paper. In addition, Arctic sea ice loss is occurring much faster than these models predicted; in 2012, September sea ice loss was more than 1 standard deviation below where these models predicted it should be. Thus, these models may be underestimating the influence of sea ice loss on hurricane steering flow in the North Atlantic. As I discussed in an April post, "Arctic sea ice loss tied to unusual jet stream patterns", three studies published in the past year have found that the jet stream has been getting stuck in unusually strong blocking patterns in recent years. These studies found that the recent record decline in Arctic sea ice could be responsible, since this heats up the pole, altering the Equator-to-pole temperature difference, forcing the jet stream to slow down, meander, and get stuck in large loops. The 2012 Arctic sea ice melt season was extreme, with sea ice extent hitting a record low. The 1-in-700 year Hurricane Sandy track could have had its odds boosted by the 2012 record sea ice loss, one can argue, based on this research. This research, however, is disputed by Dr. Barnes in a separate study just published in Geophysical Research Letters, "Revisiting the evidence linking Arctic Amplification to extreme weather in midlatitudes."

The Atlantic hurricane season has been getting longer in recent decades, in association with increasing ocean temperatures. A longer season gives the opportunity for more strong hurricanes to penetrate to the Northeast U.S. in late fall. Warmer ocean waters may also lead to an increase in strong hurricanes farther to the north, since cool ocean temperatures are a key reason why we see so few strong hurricanes affecting the Northeast. These influences would potentially offset any decrease in Sandy-like storms caused by fewer blocking highs forming in a future climate. Much more research is needed before we can be confident how climate change may or may not affect the tracks and frequency of future storms like Hurricane Sandy. One thing that is almost a sure thing: as global warming continues to cause sea levels to rise, the impacts of these storms will be worse as storm surge flooding penetrates farther inland.


Figure 4. Extent of Arctic sea ice predicted by the mean of 20 climate models used to formulate the 2013 IPCC report (thick red line); the pink area denotes plus or minus one standard deviation from the mean. The actual levels of sea ice (thick black line) fell below one standard deviation from what the model were predicting in 2012. The older predictions from the set of models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC report are shown in blue. Image credit: Stroeve et al. 2012, "Trends in Arctic sea ice extent from CMIP5, CMIP3 and observations", Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1029/2012GL052676.

Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms?
While the new study by Barnes et al. gives some hope that global warming might lead to fewer Sandy-like storms hitting the Northeast U.S., dangerous part-hurricane, part extratropical hybrid storms like Hurricane Sandy are expected to be an increasing threat for Western Europe by the end of the century due to global warming, said a team of scientists led by Reindert J. Haarsma of the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute. In a paper called "More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming", published in April 2013 in Geophysical Research Letters, the researchers describe the results from runs of a high-resolution (25 km grid spacing) climate model based on the European Centre for Medium Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) numerical weather prediction model. The model predicts that the breeding ground for Atlantic hurricanes will shift approximately 700 miles eastwards as the oceans warm this century. Hurricanes which form farther to the east can spend more time over warm tropical waters before turning north and northeast towards Europe, increasing the odds that these storms will have hurricane-force winds upon arrival in Europe. The model showed that wind shear will change little in the region over the coming decades, resulting in a large increase in storms with hurricane-force winds affecting Western Europe. Most of the these storms will not be hurricanes upon arrival in Europe, but will be former hurricanes that have transitioned to extratropical storms with hurricane-force winds. As we saw with Hurricane Sandy, these hybrid storms can be extremely dangerous. Summed over Norway, the North Sea, and the Gulf of Biscay, the model found that the number of hurricane-force storms in August - October increased by over a factor six, increasing from an average of two such storms in the current climate to thirteen per year by 2100. Almost all of these future Western European hurricane-force storms were predicted to originate as hurricanes or tropical storms in the tropics. The researchers conclude that "tropical cyclones will increase the probability of present-day extreme events over the North Sea and the Gulf of Biscay with a factor of 5 and 25 respectively, with far reaching consequences especially for coastal safety."

References
Barnes, E.A, L.M. Polvani, and A.H. Sobel, 2013, "Model projections of atmospheric steering of Sandy-like superstorms", PNAS September 3, 2013, doi: 10.1073/pnas.1308732110

Haarsma et al., 2013, More hurricanes to hit Western Europe due to global warming, Geophysical Research Letters, DOI: 10.1002/grl.50360

Hall, T.M., and A.H. Sobel, 2013, "The impact angle of Hurricane Sandy’s New Jersey landfall," Geophysical Research Letters 40:23122315.

"Europe expected to see a large increase in Hurricane Sandy-like hybrid storms", my April 2013 blog post.

"Why did Hurricane Sandy take such an unusual track into New Jersey?" my October 2012 blog post.

Arctic Warming May Not Be Altering Jet Stream: Study
by Andrew Freedman of climatecentral.org, analyzing Dr. Barnes' paper disputing the link between Arctic sea ice loss and changes in the jet stream.

Quick update on 97L
The tropical wave that moved through the Lesser Antilles Islands on Tuesday morning (Invest 97L) is showing increasing signs of organization. It seemed like an atmospheric switch got thrown early this afternoon, and the storm began spinning up. Satellite loops show that 97L has developed some respectable low-level spiral bands, and we can see upper-level outflow channels opening to both the south and the north. There is no sign of a well-organized surface circulation, though, and dry air is still hampering the storm, as evidenced by surface-based outflow boundaries coming out of some of 97L's thunderstorms on its northwest flank. Upper level winds are favorable for development, with wind shear a low 5 - 10 knots, and an upper-level anticyclone overhead. In their 2pm EDT Tuesday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC bumped up the 2-day odds of development to 30%. I put these odds at 50%, and Puerto Rico and the Eastern Dominican Republic can expect 3 - 6 inches of rain from 97L on Wednesday and Thursday. I'll be back Wednesday morning with an update.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1000. WxLogic:
Good Morning


good morning...almost time to get ready for work...woo.. hoo..
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. It's 73 degrees with a heat index of 78. Yesterday it hit 98 by 9:30 am. But, it stormed yesterday afternoon, even at my house and over my garden! Of course it happened at parent pick up time, so even with my umbrella I was soaked by the time I finished putting kids into cars. And of course, I had to stay after school and work last night at an after school event. I've still got the cough lingering from the pneumonia I had for three weeks, so hope the soaking and then hanging around in the a/c doesn't get me back to being sick.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, spinach, lean ham and cheese egg white omelet, Raspberry oatmeal breakfast cake, whole wheat butternut waffles, Crepes with Salted Butter Caramel Recipe, regular and Canadian bacon, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


according to the 06z gfs....nothing is getting to the conus unless it pops up in the gulf or western Caribbean...east coast deflector shield at full strength...lol


Uploaded with ImageShack.us

it even tried to excite a few people with 97l stopping its north movement at hour 150, and moving it west (north of bermuba)for a day or so before kicking it back northeast...lol
1004. IKE
Day 96 of the season. 87 days to go.

Totals....

6-0-0.

I picked up .99 inches of rain at my location yesterday, along with enough fallen tree branches in an afternoon thunderstorm, to burn with.
1005. IKE

Quoting watchingnva:


according to the 06z gfs....nothing is getting to the conus unless it pops up in the gulf or western Caribbean...east coast deflector shield at full strength...lol
i don't think there's any chance of a system making it all the way across the ATL in 2013. Just look at 97L.
1006. WxLogic
Quoting 1001. watchingnva:


good morning...almost time to get ready for work...woo.. hoo..


:) yes it is.
1007. Gearsts
Not looking very good unless the midlevel takes over the naked vort.

But pressures are lower inside the blob so hmm i don't know
Good morning!
Here in San Juan is raining.
I can see that the two TWaves are getting closer to each other. The Twave to the east is moving in at a fast clip and now the two main areas of convection are just 3 degrees apart an closing.
1009. LargoFl
Quoting 1007. Gearsts:
Not looking very good


Good cold overshooting tops about -75C. Let's see if it can continue to fire those in the next few hours.
1011. LargoFl
Quoting 1009. LargoFl:
dont know why the NHC doesnt see that second storm behind 97...cmc puts two storms later on near the bahama's following the same track...
1012. Gearsts
Quoting 1010. Tropicsweatherpr:


Good cold overshooting tops about -75C. Let's see if it can continue to fire those in the next few hours.
But thats just midlevel, the COC is naked towards the sw you can see the winds are due north south of the blob of convection but a new center can reform under the blob.
1013. IKE

It will be interesting to see if the two waves join forces.
1015. LargoFl
see navy see's 2 storms also.following each other.
1016. MahFL
Those circular blow ups on 97L shows you the shear is very very low.
1017. LargoFl
Quoting 1016. MahFL:
Those circular blow ups on 97L shows you the shear is very very low.
yes other side of the islands she will go for TS,maybe stronger..water temps in the mid 80s
1018. LargoFl
1019. MahFL
But the cimms shear map shows 30 kts of shear over PR, which I think is wrong.
1020. LargoFl
ok this is fantasyland but look at Florida sept 20th..
Quoting 1014. HuracandelCaribe:
It will be interesting to see if the two waves join forces.
I can't Help But think it's a little creepy the way that storm has set in the Eastern Caribbean for this long. Considering how strong the Tradewinds are in this area, it's weird.
1022. LargoFl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST WED SEP 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR
ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST
TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY UNSTABLE AND
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR 150 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX...WITH COLD TOPS OF
-74C IN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. ALSO...RADAR IMAGES DEPICTED A MID
LEVEL ROTATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. PER
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

MODELS CONTINUES VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. HISTORICALLY...EXISTS PRECEDENT THAT WE DONT NEED
ORGANIZED SYSTEM...TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. VERY-SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS
LIKE THIS ONE...HAS PRODUCED FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE PAST. THEREFORE...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN.

&&
1023. Relix
What a mess is going on there
1025. Torito
1026. LargoFl
1027. LargoFl
1028. MahFL
Very cold cloud tops now on 97L.
1029. GatorWX
Morning folks!

Still looks very much connected to P30L. I wouldn't expect it to really speed up until it can distance itself, nor will it likely strengthen IMO.





There seems still to be simply a mean low pressure between the two and as has been the case, is likely going to continue being very tricky to forecast.
1030. MahFL
Good to see the PR NWS is right on the ball with a flood watch.
1031. LargoFl
Nam for Saturday...............
97L's main problem is that there's an equally as well organized wave behind it that has a chance to develop.
1033. LargoFl
Quoting 1030. MahFL:
Good to see the PR NWS is right on the ball with a flood watch.
yes sure is..going to be alot of flooding there if the current track thinking verifies..sure is a heavy rainmaker.
1034. GatorWX

Good Morning all.
The past several years of active hurricane seasons, have been said by some, to be a direct result of and proof of global warming.

So my question is. Is this inactive season also due to global warming?
1036. IKE
BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURE...
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE
CENTER NEAR 15N64W LOOKS BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. A
CLUSTER OF MODERATE CONVECTION AND TSTMS IS FROM 14N-17N BETWEEN
63W-65W. ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE FROM 14N-19N BETWEEN
62W-67W. UPPER-LEVEL WINDS APPEAR FAVORABLE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT
OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...BUT INTERACTION WITH THE LAND MASSES OF
HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO RICO COULD INHIBIT TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION AS THE SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
CURRENTLY...THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS
OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND SPREAD
OVER PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY.
looks better than yesterday recon this afternoon might as well check both
Quoting CybrTeddy:
97L's main problem is that there's an equally as well organized wave behind it that has a chance to develop.


I asked a question last night about the 3 T-waves being so close maybe inhibiting either one from developing. One needs to become dominate or else they'll just stay as T-waves.
1039. GatorWX
Quoting 1035. HimacaneBrees:
Good Morning all.
The past several years of active hurricane seasons, have been said by some, to be a direct result of and proof of global warming.

So my question is. Is this inactive season also due to global warming?


lol, not necessarily. Maybe in the future when we look at years gone by, we'll have a better understanding. It's a tough argument to attribute any one season to GW. Maybe the overall trend since 1995, for instance could be. Even this active period cannot be directly linked. Everything will show in retrospect and in the future. Until then, it's irrelevant to the discussion on GW, imo.
when john hope studied these systems there is a good chance that 97 would of been classified a td with consistant west winds in the southern leewards a few days ago. so is the john hope rule really being violated?


@BigJoeBastardi
Very cool water southwest and west of India has left the African wave train more feeble than normal, affecting storm genesis.

Now that I have posted the Indian Ocean Dipole idea as a reason for the weak African wave train, lets see if other mets start mentioning.

Dr. John Lee, my tropical prof at PSU, said the monsoonal circulation and disruptive events were big key to the African wave train. Spot on.

The past couple of decades of the warm IOD probably lulled me into a false sense of security. Atlantic by itself, not the big key.

Interestingly enough, the Pacific/Atlantic relationship is ripe. But if you are baking a cake, you need all the ingredients.
Quoting 1039. GatorWX:


lol, not necessarily. Maybe in the future when we look at years gone by, we'll have a better understanding. It's a tough argument to attribute any one season to GW. Maybe the overall trend since 1995, for instance could be. Even this active period cannot be directly linked. Everything will show in retrospect and in the future. Until then, it's irrelevant to the discussion on GW, imo.



There was a lot of talk from multiple outlets back in 04 and 05 about those seasons being the "new normal." There's still a lot to learn about this world.
1043. GatorWX
The "other side" has considerably less convection than yesterday.



And the ATL.



It's September 4th?? lol. Fun season to watch trying to put together the pieces on what went wrong (so far :).
1044. ackee
Where is the MJO that was supposed to kick start a early active September we are almost at the peak with no storm yet I hate to sound like a Down caster but this season have Done the opposite of every predation made by the expert go show mother nature have the final say how every season will go
Quoting 1029. GatorWX:
Morning folks!

Still looks very much connected to P30L. I wouldn't expect it to really speed up until it can distance itself, nor will it likely strengthen IMO.





There seems still to be simply a mean low pressure between the two and as has been the case, is likely going to continue being very tricky to forecast.
I agree, I don't think there's anything close to a true center to grab onto with this thing.

If they don't have a center to work with, none of these forecast Models mean a thing.
1046. GatorWX
Quoting 1042. PensacolaDoug:



There was a lot of talk from multiple outlets back in 04 and 05 about those seasons being the new normal.
Still a lot to learn about this world.


Absolutely. Oceans are getting warmer, but that doesn't necessarily translate to more, or more significantly, stronger storms. Everything will be clear in hindsight and in the future. Until then, a whole lot of speculation. I have no doubt there is greater potential for strong storms with warmer water, but so many other factors are at play as well.
1047. hu2007
goooood morrrnning from carolina puerto rico, i will be here lending help with my observation with the top news of the first week of september (((invest 97))), future g or h storm. here right now i having calms winds , mostly cloudy and cool
Quoting ackee:
Where is the MJO that was supposed to kick start a early active September we are almost at the peak with no storm yet I hate to sound like a Down caster but this season have Done the opposite of every predation made by the expert go show mother nature have the final say how every season will go




From the looks of it. It's missed 97L.
1049. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING.
ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS OR NOT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
About to get to breakfast and then go to class, but before I go, I'd like to take a stab at the COC and say it's at 15N, 66W. First few visible frames of the day seem to show some spin there. Would also agree with CIMSS vorticity maps.
1052. LargoFl
Good morning folks! Looks like NW Florida is finally getting back into a normal patten and rain chances have decreased to our typical summertime 30% chance of afternoon thunderstoms that mainly form inshore in the form of sea breeze thunderstorms. This will hopefully mean we'll dry out a little bit along the immediate coast! Tropics show some signs of life but still nothing to write home about which is good by me!
Quoting 1020. LargoFl:
ok this is fantasyland but look at Florida sept 20th..


If we do get that strong of a high over the Mid Atlantic then yes expect thing to get active across the Gulf & Caribbean. Florida could be in a active set up for systems coming in out of the Gulf & Caribbean one after another. Could be an active end to the season.
1055. IKE
97L moving NW @ 10mph. No western Caribbean threat with 97L.
1056. GatorWX




@NWSMelbourne
Hurricane Frances made landfall 9 years ago tonight near Jensen Beach during the very active 2004 season.



Quoting 1004. IKE:
Day 96 of the season. 87 days to go.

Totals....

6-0-0.

I picked up .99 inches of rain at my location yesterday, along with enough fallen tree branches in an afternoon thunderstorm, to burn with.


We didn't need the rain and lucked out, those storms that you had tried to come South but died out before reaching the coast, we had some sprinkles but that was it. We picked up our inch of rain over the weekend.
1059. IKE

5m
If something is going to beat me ( ACE way overforecasted this year) I am going to find out why and not let it beat me again
1060. GatorWX
Still has a very nice upper level wind environment:






Would not be surprised to see a depression in the next 24 hours, 97L looks leaps and bounds better than it did a day ago.
1062. IKE

Quoting 69Viking:


We didn't need the rain and lucked out, those storms that you had tried to come South but died out before reaching the coast, we had some sprinkles but that was it. We picked up our inch of rain over the weekend.
Rough weather here yesterday afternoon.
1063. barbamz

Good morning 97L and every other blog member, lol.
Quoting 1050. CaribBoy:
rain
1065. GatorWX
Needs some space to breathe. It's annoying when someone's all up in your face. Drives me nuts personally.

1066. MPI88
Quoting 1035. HimacaneBrees:
Good Morning all.
The past several years of active hurricane seasons, have been said by some, to be a direct result of and proof of global warming.

So my question is. Is this inactive season also due to global warming?


One can never attribute a single season to global warming. It is all about long term statistics.

It took us more than 60 years of observations to identify the Atlantic-Multidecadal-Oscillation (AMO).

May I suggest to read some background papers;
[Holland et. al. (2013) - Recent intense hurricane response to global climate change]
[Grinsted et. al. (2013) - Projected Atlantic hurricane surge threat from rising temperatures.]
[Certain uncertainty - Nature Climate Change editorial]

Besides that, season is not over yet.
Quoting 1032. CybrTeddy:
97L's main problem is that there's an equally as well organized wave behind it that has a chance to develop.
it looks like there are finally going to fuse together
1069. GatorWX
1070. LargoFl
lot of rain in the gulf at 72 hours................
1071. barbamz

TPW with the wave behind 97L, chasing our invest. Click to enlarge.
Ummmmmmm.........

1073. Hhunter
Fujiwara effect?
Quoting 1053. 69Viking:
Good morning folks! Looks like NW Florida is finally getting back into a normal patten and rain chances have decreased to our typical summertime 30% chance of afternoon thunderstoms that mainly form inshore in the form of sea breeze thunderstorms. This will hopefully mean we'll dry out a little bit along the immediate coast! Tropics show some signs of life but still nothing to write home about which is good by me!



I 2nd everything! This has been a horribly wet summer. We don't need a TC either.
1076. GatorWX
Quoting 1068. PRweathercenter:
it looks like there are finally going to fuse together


Essentially they are and have been if you go off vorticity maps. At the 500 mb level, there is a separation however.

1078. barbamz
Quoting 1072. AussieStorm:
Ummmmmmm.........



Just the two of us, lol. BBL.
The way the two entities seem to be steadily drawing together, we just may get to see a dance...


Finally some rain.
Quoting 1075. PensacolaDoug:



I 2nd everything! This has been a horribly wet summer. We don't need a TC either.


Yeah we still have a lot of season to go. Our biggest threat I think will come in October when stronger cold fronts drop down and leave something behind in the Gulf. Hopefully shear will be high and keep anything strong from developing. We just need to send any moisture into Texas!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:



I 2nd everything! This has been a horribly wet summer. We don't need a TC either.


We are getting very close to record dry days here in Sydney. We are at 24 dry days. I think the record is 28. We have just come through the warmest winter in Sydney since records stared 150yrs ago.

This is for you Doug
Quoting barbamz:


Just the two of us, lol. BBL.


Que Sera Sera
1084. Relix
97L slow movement could give it time to strenghten before getting to PR. Its definitely aiming for our SW tip. Wave behind is a game changer I believe. It could very well kick our wave to the ground, merge (is that possible?) change track, etc.
Oh Brother!

1086. Relix
You happy CaribBoy? :P.
down stream 97 looks to be creating a long fetch of wind pointing sw. perfect direction for e cen fl.s surf
Quoting 1082. AussieStorm:


We are getting very close to record dry days here in Sydney. We are at 24 dry days. I think the record is 28. We have just come through the warmest winter in Sydney since records stared 150yrs ago.


I wish I could send you some of ours.
Warm winters; I hate 'em.


EDIT: There ain't no sunshine. LOL!
Quoting 1084. Relix:
97L slow movement could give it time to strenghten before getting to PR. Its definitely aiming for our SW tip. Wave behind is a game changer I believe. It could very well kick our wave to the ground, merge (is that possible?) change track, etc.


Mmmm interesting
1092. StormWx
Looks to dry out along the Gulf Coast. Cant complain :)

1093. GatorWX
Quoting 1072. AussieStorm:
Ummmmmmm.........



So the HWRF is forecasting another strong hurricane, no way! Is the CMC spitting out new systems too? Kidding, ;)
Quoting 1092. StormWx:
Looks to dry out along the Gulf Coast. Cant complain :)



Good morning all. I hope this dry air pattern stay with us in the Gulf Coast all the way through winter and into the next spring.
Quoting 1086. Relix:
You happy CaribBoy? :P.


Somewhat lol. Not fully satisfied yet... WHY? Simply because I'm not sure the eastern wave will stay so alive until it reaches me !! XD
Quoting 1035. HimacaneBrees:
Good Morning all.
The past several years of active hurricane seasons, have been said by some, to be a direct result of and proof of global warming.

So my question is. Is this inactive season also due to global warming?
I can't recall anyone credible ever making such a statement. Can you please provide links? Thanks in advance...
97L looks like a tc to me this am. Gonna be interesting watching it's trailer run into it.
1099. GatorWX
Quoting 1057. AussieStorm:
@NWSMelbourne
Hurricane Frances made landfall 9 years ago tonight near Jensen Beach during the very active 2004 season.





Neat to see the subtle poleward motions from the influence of troughs before flattening back out.
Boy i hope no storms hit like sandy especially if it tracks further inland and hits more central part of northeast like ny. Man this summer we have had alot of flash flooding and very wet summer. I wounder if we are going to have a ton of snow this year? I guess only time will tell.
Quoting GatorWX:


So the HWRF is forecasting another strong hurricane, no way! Is the CMC spitting out new systems too? Kidding, ;)

ummmm......



Link
I think it safe to say at this point 97L not gonna hit north america
Quoting 1101. AussieStorm:

ummmm......



Link


that thing need stay away from nova scotia look how powerful it look
Based on satellite, I expect sunny weather later in the morning before the eastern wave arrives. IF that wave stays intact all day, its arrival could be very interesting to watch. I LOVE THAT KIND OF WEATHER
1105. GatorWX
Quoting 1096. Neapolitan:
I can't recall anyone credible ever making such a statement. Can you please provide links? Thanks in advance...


He didn't state credible people made those claims. Besides that, you can't argue that certain outlets in the media didn't make vague correlations.
1106. GatorWX
Quoting 1101. AussieStorm:

ummmm......



Link


:)
Quoting 1101. AussieStorm:

ummmm......



Link



I know what your thinking.....LOOK at the GFS run....the HIGH blocks it even more....UMMMMM is correct.
Quoting 1096. Neapolitan:
I can't recall anyone credible ever making such a statement. Can you please provide links? Thanks in advance...



Oh please. The ongoing narrative from the media has promulgated this idea ad-nauseum in print, TV shows and movies.
1109. GatorWX
Still like this.

Quoting HurricaneCamille:


that thing need stay away from nova scotia look how powerful it look


Is Nova Scotia part of North America?
1111. GatorWX
Quoting 1101. AussieStorm:

ummmm......



Link




Up to 40%

So how do you guys think it looks?
Quoting TampaSpin:



I know what your thinking.....LOOK at the GFS run....the HIGH blocks it even more....UMMMMM is correct.




Looks to me on this run the GFS has it turning back west towards CONUS after the weakness closes and the high builds back in.
Link
TXNT28 KNES 041208
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (97L)

B. 04/1145Z

C. 16.8N

D. 64.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T1.5/1.5/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...CONVECTION MEASURES 3/10 FOR A DT=1.5. MET IS 1.0 AND PT
IS 1.5. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...MCCARTHY


Link
Quoting 1108. PensacolaDoug:



Oh please. The ongoing narrative from the media has promulgated this idea in print, TV shows and movies.
Oh, the media. Got it. See, when I said "anyone credible", I meant an actual scientist, not Blow-Dry Bob and Perky Paulette reading the news on the local Fox affiliate. Carry on, then...
1116. GatorWX
Ya never know. I remember seeing that similar blocking pattern quite a bit early on this season in June and July. It's those transition months that scare me most, especially, regarding tropical development, fall.
1117. GatorWX
Quoting 1115. Neapolitan:
Oh, the media. Got it. See, when I said "anyone credible", I meant an actual scientist, not Blow-Dry Bob and Perky Paulette reading the news on the local Fox affiliate. Carry on, then...


How about we don't start this here this morning. It's feudal here, so why bother? Thanks
It looks like two different storms are trying to form. They both looks in good shape
Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, the media. Got it. See, when I said "anyone credible", I meant an actual scientist, not Blow-Dry Bob and Perky Paulette reading the news on the local Fox affiliate. Carry on, then...


Would Bill Nye say anything like that on CNN?
04/1145 UTC 16.8N 64.5W T1.5/1.5 97L -- Atlantic
Quoting 1115. Neapolitan:
Oh, the media. Got it. See, when I said "anyone credible", I meant an actual scientist, not Blow-Dry Bob and Perky Paulette reading the news on the local Fox affiliate. Carry on, then...


It hasn't been FOX news. You put them in the "denialist, anti-science camp" with most of your other posts. Why the inconsistency Nea? Pandering to the low-info types?
GFS saying we could get close to breaking the record, or even tying it.
1123. SLU
Quoting 1104. CaribBoy:
Based on satellite, I expect sunny weather later in the morning before the eastern wave arrives. IF that wave stays intact all day, its arrival could be very interesting to watch. I LOVE THAT KIND OF WEATHER


Remember this is 2013.
Quoting 1113. AussieStorm:




Looks to me on this run the GFS has it turning back west towards CONUS after the weakness closes and the high builds back in.
Link


Some of the earlier ensemble models had a similar situation going on. Took it much closer to the CONUS though. Looks like this one would turn it back a little bit before pushing it back out.

EDit: Some right now seem to have it hitting Maine.
Quoting 1123. SLU:


Remember this is 2013.


Yes :-(
Does these storms have any chance of hitting Florida.
Quoting 1120. Tropicsweatherpr:
04/1145 UTC 16.8N 64.5W T1.5/1.5 97L -- Atlantic


Where is wunderkid? XD
Quoting 1121. PensacolaDoug:


It hasn't been FOX news. You put them in the "denialist, anti-science camp" with most of your other posts. Why the inconsistency Nea? Pandering to the low-info types?


You should try reading actual science on Hurricanes and GW.
Quoting 1113. AussieStorm:




Looks to me on this run the GFS has it turning back west towards CONUS after the weakness closes and the high builds back in.
Link


very interesting...
Good Morning/Evening

http://science.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at-n asa/2013/03sep_soot/
Could the massive increase in coal burning in China be having an arctic effect? Could it be throwing off the melt models due to soot?
I know they took samples in Greenland to look for that effect but didn't read any results.
Then again I'm waiting for my ET article to get published and it has been 2 years. So far only one author has died during the wait. I know peer review is important but man are my peers some serious review slackers!
Quoting 1122. FunnelVortex:
GFS saying we could get close to breaking the record, or even tying it.


Hello. Please explain that.

Thanks.
Shhhhhh.... Lets just relax and mellow out about before this takes off like a rocket and people start bickering.

1133. GatorWX
Quoting 1113. AussieStorm:




Looks to me on this run the GFS has it turning back west towards CONUS after the weakness closes and the high builds back in.
Link


Still a ways out, but like I said, ya never know. Of note is the overall absence of troughing on the ecoast of the conus.
1134. SLU
Quoting 1125. CaribBoy:


Yes :-(


Based on what 97L looked like on Sunday, I thought I'd get some solid weather but 3 days later and virtually no rain has fallen here yet during its passage.
1135. MahFL
Quoting 1131. rmbjoe1954:


Hello. Please explain that.

Thanks.


The latest formation of the first hurricane of a season, Sep 11th I believe.
1136. GatorWX
Quoting 1132. AussieStorm:
Shhhhhh.... Lets just relax and mellow out about before this takes off like a rocket and people start bickering.



Perfect!!!! Makes my morning better! :)
Quoting 1116. GatorWX:
Ya never know. I remember seeing that similar blocking pattern quite a bit early on this season in June and July. It's those transition months that scare me most, especially, regarding tropical development, fall.


If the Bermuda high is restrengtening to the June July levels again, that could be bad news.
Quoting GatorWX:


Still a ways out, but like I said, ya never know. Of note is the overall absence of troughing on the ecoast of the conus.


yeah, Nothing to "kick" it to the NCATL
1139. IKE
System east of 97L looks better than 97L.
Quoting 1115. Neapolitan:
Oh, the media. Got it. See, when I said "anyone credible", I meant an actual scientist, not Blow-Dry Bob and Perky Paulette reading the news on the local Fox affiliate. Carry on, then...
"He's back"
1141. GatorWX
Quoting 1138. AussieStorm:


yeah, Nothing to "kick" it to the NCATL


We shall see. That blocking ridge was quite prevalent early on. (June and early to mid-July.)
Gator,

Did you mean "it is feudal here", like middle ages waring kingdoms?
or "it is futile here", like it won't have any effect?
Either way you are right.
Looks like we'll have a decent CV system soon. With a strenghtening Bermuda High
Quoting 1110. AussieStorm:


Is Nova Scotia part of North America?
Yes it is.
Quoting 1131. rmbjoe1954:


Hello. Please explain that.

Thanks.
That if we don`t get a hurricane by September 11 we are going to reach the latest in the Atl basin without a hurricane.
Quoting 1134. SLU:


Based on what 97L looked like on Sunday, I thought I'd get some solid weather but 3 days later and virtually no rain has fallen here yet during its passage.


Nearly ALL the rain was concentrated near / over the 3 islands north of you. It's been the case so many times this year. Now I have a little bit too much gastric acidity because of constantly seeing rain over that particular area since late march. 2013 it is... yeah.
1146. GatorWX
Quoting 1104. CaribBoy:
Based on satellite, I expect sunny weather later in the morning before the eastern wave arrives. IF that wave stays intact all day, its arrival could be very interesting to watch. I LOVE THAT KIND OF WEATHER


I hope it brings you the rain you've been praying for!
So how did the IPCC 2013 models make predictions in 2012, when the 5th report isn't due out till 2014?
might need another number hope carib boy gets it.
Good morning to all from San Juan.
Strong showers on and off here in southern San Juan, Puerto Rico.
97L looks to be developing, but suffering from what has turned in to a 2013 Season epidemic.
I do think it could have been called a TD by the metrics of other seasons, but taking the way our systems have developed this year it was probably best that they've been more conservative.
Looks to have a decent outflow but being cut off a little on it's east by that siamese twin/sister wave to it's east.

Nonetheless, rain should be on the increase today and the rest of the week in Puerto Rico and neighboring islands.

Have a good Wednesday!
Quoting 1147. 69Viking:


I hope it brings you the rain you've been praying for!


I hope so, but not too confident.
1152. IKE

Quoting IKE:
System east of 97L looks better than 97L.
And the NHC doesn't even mention it in the TWO.
1153. GatorWX
Quoting 1142. biff4ugo:
Gator,

Did you mean "it is feudal here", like middle ages waring kingdoms?
or "it is futile here", like it won't have any effect?
Either way you are right.


:) Perhaps both. futile. hehe. I think that's the second time in a week I used the same phrase and the same misspelled word.
Quoting 1143. CaneHunter031472:
Looks like we'll have a decent CV system soon. With a strenghtening Bermuda High


That next CV system will most likely turn as well due to the weakness that Gabrielle will create next week, especially if ramps up to a hurricane quickly like the Euro and GFS both show. Could be something for Bermuda to watch for down the road.
1155. GatorWX
Quoting 1092. StormWx:
Looks to dry out along the Gulf Coast. Cant complain :)



I saw that. This has also resulted in a special session of the Texas government to rename the capital of the state to Atacama :)
Quoting 1132. AussieStorm:
Shhhhhh.... Lets just relax and mellow out about before this takes off like a rocket and people start bickering.



Some people here remind me of my teenage son, he always wants to argue and try to prove you wrong!
From da blog.

The Atlantic hurricane season has been getting longer in recent decades, in association with increasing ocean temperatures. A longer season gives the opportunity for more strong hurricanes to penetrate to the Northeast U.S. in late fall. Warmer ocean waters may also lead to an increase in strong hurricanes farther to the north, since cool ocean temperatures are a key reason why we see so few strong hurricanes affecting the Northeast. These influences would potentially offset any decrease in Sandy-like storms caused by fewer blocking highs forming in a future climate. Much more research is needed before we can be confident how climate change may or may not affect the tracks and frequency of future storms like Hurricane Sandy. One thing that is almost a sure thing: as global warming continues to cause sea levels to rise, the impacts of these storms will be worse as storm surge flooding penetrates farther inland.

No argument here.... MUCH more research is needed. Period.
Quoting 1128. nrtiwlnvragn:


You should try reading actual science on Hurricanes and GW.


I do. But that's not what this discussion was about.
But thanks for jumping in.
1160. GatorWX
P30L moving in. I keep wondering how the ultimate interaction will be. Will they try to rotate around each other? Will they merge? I'm interested to find out what happens.

Quoting 1154. Chucktown:


That next CV system will most likely turn as well due to the weakness that Gabrielle will create next week, especially if ramps up to a hurricane quickly like the Euro and GFS both show. Could be something for Bermuda to watch for down the road.


That's very much a possibility. But I wouldn't say that the NE US is out of the woods, because at the end of the run the High re strenghten. Could bring it pretty darn too close for comfort. Meanwhile I love the dry air down in the south, and I keep saying this, but to me this is early fall, and as the days pass I see more weather patterns supporting that idea. Please correct me if I'm wrong.
Quoting 1139. IKE:
System east of 97L looks better than 97L.


That's what I was thinking too. One area of the deepest convection stays constant almost like it's an eye feature which of course I know its not.
Good Morning!
7:00 am (11:00 GMT)

Not gonna win any awards with this shot. It looked like there actually was a spectacular sunrise, and if I'd have gotten to where I could take a pic 5 minutes earlier it would have been much nicer. Dex has got his habits though, gotta smell this and pee on that...

Speaking of habits, I believe I warned about this yesterday...

Dexter is more than just a little pleased with himself as he positively crows over his new-found status. If only his friends Missy, Marley, Odie and Jake could see him now!

A special thanks to all the wonderful words of congratulations for my Approvers Choice picture from yesterday. I must confess being baffled at first. When I saw congrats on the AC, I thought, what? Are we getting a new air-conditioner? And how would the blog know? (I'm really not very bright, as some of you may have already surmised) Really, really appreciate it folks. Totally got me smiling!

I'm late! Have a great day all!
Quoting 1160. GatorWX:
P30L moving in. I keep wondering how the ultimate interaction will be. Will they try to rotate around each other? Will they merge? I'm interested to find out what happens.





Me too. For a weather weenie, this is interesting.
1165. SLU
Quoting 1145. CaribBoy:


Nearly ALL the rain was concentrated near / over the 3 islands north of you. It's been the case so many times this year. Now I have a little bit too much gastric acidity because of constantly seeing rain over that particular area since late march. 2013 it is... yeah.


lol yeah. a real disappointing season man.

I am personally not fully sold 97L will recurve. High pressure building back in and a new HP center in the gulf.



1167. GatorWX
Quoting 1164. PensacolaDoug:




Me too. For a weather weenie, this is interesting.


Seems yesterday P30L had a tug effect with 97, where now, it seems to be the opposite. I still feel as if there is a broad mean low pressure center they're both being influenced by. We should find out the outcome by this time tomorrow, I should think.
Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
/ISSUED 355 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2013/

LONG RANGE MODELS DEPICT A 590 DAM H5 RIDGE ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS
SLIDING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH AND NORTHERN
FLORIDA EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS SHOULD KEEP THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC PATTERN
FAIRLY STAGNANT ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA FOR THE FORESEEABLE FUTURE.
Good Morning. Agree with the comment that the disturbance NE of the Antilles is firing better convection than 97L this morning but I will defer to NHC with the crayon for the moment.

If both of these spun up at the same time (not likely), and given their proximity, we could be in for some Fujiwhara effect action. Either way, it is going to be interesting to see how these two disturbances interact due to their proximity as the Eastern most area appears to be moving towards 97L; not enough room for both to develop IMO and the other disturbance could sap some of the breathing room for 97.

Biggest news of the day; September 4th and still no hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.
1170. GatorWX
Quoting 1163. mikatnight:
Good Morning!
7:00 am (11:00 GMT)

Not gonna win any awards with this shot. It looked like there actually was a spectacular sunrise, and if I'd have gotten to where I could take a pic 5 minutes earlier it would have been much nicer. Dex has got his habits though, gotta smell this and pee on that...

Speaking of habits, I believe I warned about this yesterday...

Dexter is more than just a little pleased with himself as he positively crows over his new-found status. If only his friends Missy, Marley, Odie and Jake could see him now!

A special thanks to all the wonderful words of congratulations for my Approvers Choice picture from yesterday. I must confess being baffled at first. When I saw congrats on the AC, I thought, what? Are we getting a new air-conditioner? And how would the blog know? (I'm really not very bright, as some of you may have already surmised) Really, really appreciate it folks. Totally got me smiling!

I'm late! Have a great day all!


Lol he reminds me of my Boxer. She makes me push her around the house on my computer chair.
1172. ohzone
Quoting 1096. Neapolitan:
I can't recall anyone credible ever making such a statement. Can you please provide links? Thanks in advance...


I'm extremely credible ( and some of the gals say incredible) and I do believe global warming is associated not so much with frequency of hurricanes but rather the birth-cycle, life and direction some of these storms take. Let us recall Dr. Master's numerous references to the jet pattern - his hypothesis makes perfect sense. If indeed there is global warming, we should all know by now it does not effect the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic - no hurricanes yet this year. But, I detect a strong tropical storm heading to the upper U.S. east coast, making landfall by the end of next week, currently named 97L.
1173. GatorWX




1174. JLPR2
97L pulled the anticyclone closer to it leaving the other one in the dark. It's gonna get ugly for the other TW.
XD

You can already see what appears like a convectionless weak circulation around 18,6N, 61W in the RGB images.

1175. Relix
97L not moving much... AGAIN?!?
1176. JLPR2
Quoting 1175. Relix:
97L not moving much... AGAIN?!?


I'm almost 100% sure that it's due to the other TW. At this rate we'll feel the strongest rains on Thursday. :\
1177. GatorWX
1178. 900MB
Quoting 1118. CaneHunter031472:
It looks like two different storms are trying to form. They both looks in good shape


97l and friend shortly behind seem to be getting closer and closer. Wonder if we'll see some energy transfer like we do when we have noreasters, when a coastal low steals the energy from a great lakes low? This interaction will be interesting! One of those blobs should win out and grow stronger.

Thoughts on results of interaction?
Some people just can't stop trying to Advance their typical Liberal AGENDA NO MATTER the Spin they use. ie..GW-caused a slow season...GW-caused a busy season! I'm out...have a great day all!
Gonna check back at lunch. One thing of note, for 97L, is that the circulation appears to have consolidated since yesterday and it is much "smaller" than it was yesterday. This could help it if a well defined circulation emerges over the next 24 but the proximity issue (both to land masses and to the disturbance to the east) are inhibiting factors. The window of opportunity will close over the next 24 hours if it does not reach TD status before interaction with PR and Hispanola.

See Yall Later.
1181. Relix
Quoting 1176. JLPR2:


I'm almost 100% sure that it's due to the other TW. At this rate we'll feel the strongest rains on Thursday. :\


And give it some time to strengthen. And also keep pounding us with bands and then tomorrow the real deluge begins. It could get real ugly.
1182. GatorWX
1183. FOREX
Quoting 1179. TampaSpin:
Some people just can't stop trying to Advance their typical Liberal cause NO MATTER the Spin they use. ie..GW-caused a slow season...GW-caused a busy season! I out...have a great day all!


I'm a Conservative Nationalist and still think GW is a huge problem.
97L is starting to feel like the

Sword of Damocles ...

(a dull one though)
1185. JLPR2
Quoting 1181. Relix:


And give it some time to strengthen. And also keep pounding us with bands and then tomorrow the real deluge begins. It could get real ugly.


Yeah... I guess I should get some paddle boarding/kayak classes today. XD
Quoting 1143. CaneHunter031472:
Looks like we'll have a decent CV system soon. With a strenghtening Bermuda High


Ugh, your icon is epilepsy inducing...
1187. GatorWX
1188. GatorWX
Dr. Ricky Rood has a great blog regarding climate change.
1189. SLU
Tropical wave count for 2013 to date:

May - 2

June - 10

July - 7

August - 10

September - 2
1190. FL1980
Quoting 1179. TampaSpin:
Some people just can't stop trying to Advance their typical Liberal AGENDA NO MATTER the Spin they use. ie..GW-caused a slow season...GW-caused a busy season! I'm out...have a great day all!


Very Well Said
1191. beell
Quoting 1184. CaicosRetiredSailor:
97L is starting to feel like the

Sword of Damocles ...

(a dull one though)


Hanging over Pandora's Box...
Quoting 1188. GatorWX:
Dr. Ricky Rood has a great blog regarding climate change.




With about the same 15 or so posters telling each other how dumb the rest of us are.
1193. LargoFl
no sense in following this storm hour by hour,its going on for days here..
Quoting 1179. TampaSpin:
Some people just can't stop trying to Advance their typical Liberal AGENDA NO MATTER the Spin they use. ie..GW-caused a slow season...GW-caused a busy season! I'm out...have a great day all!

Well, you know how "some people" are. "Some people" will even assign a political POV to a simple outcome of physics.

No telling what "some people" will do, eh?
Kind of funny when that MJO swung around from the mid Pacific to the Atlantic this week we ended up with a very similar setup with 97L and his little buddy as we did to the west of Hawaii with PEWA and those other two waves.
1196. 900MB
Quoting 1179. TampaSpin:
Some people just can't stop trying to Advance their typical Liberal AGENDA NO MATTER the Spin they use. ie..GW-caused a slow season...GW-caused a busy season! I'm out...have a great day all!


Climate change is not a partisan issue. With all the change that we've seen, I feel as if we took the weather deck of cards and shuffled. The East River might freeze over while we could have a warm winter in Europe. It is unpredictable.

Let's put it this way. If all the experts are wrong, and there is no GW, what's the worst that happens? We end up with a less polluted planet? What's wrong with that?

Personally, I cannot deny GW, that would be illogical, but I also take the George Carlin theory- the planet will be fine, it will heal itself- it is the humans that are f&%ked!
Quoting 1192. PensacolaDoug:




With about the same 15 or so posters telling each other how dumb the rest of us are.

Oh, please! We tell the rest of you directly, too. :)

(In point of fact, it's very rare that anyone gets called "dumb" or "stupid". Some posts are rightfully categorized as such, though.)
1198. GatorWX
Quoting 1192. PensacolaDoug:




With about the same 15 or so posters telling each other how dumb the rest of us are.


I just don't want to see the argument started here on this one today. It's so pointless as nobody is going to change there mind on the subject here on the blog. Ya know?

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS OR NOT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

invest 97L WENT UP TO 40% THIS MORNING
1200. GatorWX
so 97 appears quasi stationary as it waits for the wave to catch up with it or appears that way
1202. GatorWX
Quoting 1201. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so 97 appears quasi stationary as it waits for the wave to catch up with it or appears that way


my head hurts!!! Morning keeper!
1203. BVI
Quoting 1151. CaribBoy:


I hope so, but not too confident.


we are getting some very heavy rain in Tortola, British Virgin Islands this morning. My cistern actually now overflowing!
In the past, this blog has tied active hurricane seasons to climate change.
Is the relatively calm hurricane season this year indicative of climate stabilization?
I am so tired of tracking these little poor storms...Its like an act of congress just to get anything to form now days
INVEST 97L is looking better this morning!
Got to love this piece of faux science from Accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/volcano -cooltemps-midwest/17180569

Apparently, we had "Julytober" this year due to a Russian volcano that quietly erupted to minimal fanfare. This is silly, July wasn't even that much below normal in the Midwest. It was a little cooler than average, but the coldest readings were in the Southeast. Moreover, the contiguous U.S. as a whole was 0.8 degrees warmer than normal, with much above readings in the West and Northeast. Alaska was also much warmer than normal, 1.7 degrees above the average, and fifth warmest on record. This is part of the problem with conveying global warming to the average Joe. The media likes to peddle nonsense.
1209. MahFL
New blob of convection spreading SW = less shear. Go baby go !
1210. GatorWX
Quoting 1206. unknowncomic:


wow! Hadn't noticed that yet.
1211. hu2007
i was in a squall 10 minutes ago and was gusty 30 mph, now is variably cloudy and calm and becoming frecuent the squalls in carolina pr
1212. Torito
97L looks a lot better than yesterday...

1213. GatorWX
Again, Dr Ricky Rood has a blog for the discussion of climate change. May I refer you there so the argument doesn't overtake the discussion of tropical weather here? Thank you!
Good morning all, I see still no development as of yet. I'm wondering if 97L will wait until clearing the islands to develop.



Still looks like some uncertainty in the track.

DID YOU SEE THE THE RED MODEL THIS MORNING.
1216. Torito
More and more GFS ensembles showing a bend back west with 97L. The ridge across the Central US is the key to 97L's future.

Quoting 1172. ohzone:


I'm extremely credible ( and some of the gals say incredible) and I do believe global warming is associated not so much with frequency of hurricanes but rather the birth-cycle, life and direction some of these storms take. Let us recall Dr. Master's numerous references to the jet pattern - his hypothesis makes perfect sense. If indeed there is global warming, we should all know by now it does not effect the frequency of hurricanes in the Atlantic - no hurricanes yet this year. But, I detect a strong tropical storm heading to the upper U.S. east coast, making landfall by the end of next week, currently named 97L.




1219. Torito
1220. MahFL
Quoting 1201. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
so 97 appears quasi stationary as it waits for the wave to catch up with it or appears that way

No, it's moving slowly NW, the small amount of sear is blowing from the SW, so the almost net result appears to be stationary. But is is moving, use the PR long range radar to watch the movement.
Quoting 1213. GatorWX:
Again, Dr Ricky Rood has a blog for the discussion of climate change. May I refer you there so the argument doesn't overtake the discussion of tropical weather here? Thank you!

Did you notice, by chance, the topic Dr. Masters wrote about in this blog? You might want to take a look before directing traffic.
1222. GatorWX
Quoting 1217. StormTrackerScott:
More and more GFS ensembles showing a bend back west with 97L. The ridge across the Central US is the key to 97L's future.



Interesting pattern could set up, perhaps.
WHY IS bend back west with 97L LETS hope is notice a hurricane sandy moving back at the west.
1224. MahFL
97L is exploding again with very cold cloud tops.
1225. Torito
Origin points for the month of September. 97L has been following the path farthest to the east..

1226. GatorWX
Quoting 1221. Birthmark:

Did you notice, by chance, the topic Dr. Masters wrote about in this blog? You might want to take a look before directing traffic.


.wax.up
1228. MTWX
Legitamate questions for those in the know...

Given how slow this season has been so far (and may continue to be), what do you think will happen to the weather this winter?? spring?? summer?? next hurricane season??

Was thinking about it last night (couldn't sleep)...

Hurricanes are a natural mechanism to release the heat built up in the oceans to keep the climate in balance. If we don't have any storms large enough to significantly release said content, how will the weather compensate?? Larger winter storms/noreasters in the winter?? More frequent/violent severe storms in spring??

Or are we looking at a "earthquake senerio" where the lack of, for lack of a better word, smaller hurricanes will cause a massive storm (hurricane, noreaster, etc...) beyond epic proportions to form to force the dissipation of heat back into the norm??


(See what happens when I can't sleep!!!)
Recon Teal 70 will be going in today and just may find a Tropical Depression when they get there.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031442
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1040 AM EDT TUE 03 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 16.8N 65.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Also Global Hawk will be in there again today.

4. THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
A. AIRCRAFT: NA872
B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-LEEWARD ISLANDS
C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1500Z, 04 SEP
D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
E. IP: 1900Z, 04 SEP; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
F. EP: 1000Z, 4 SEPT; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
G. ON-STATION DURATION: 15H 00M
H. ETA WFF: 1500Z, 05 SEPT
I. DROPSONDES TO BE DEPLOYED: 84
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF CIRCULATION
IN BOX BOUNDED BY 22.8N 67.5W, 17.0N 67.6W,
14.8N 55.3W AND 22.8N 55.3W
L. COMMENT: NA871 LANDING WFF AT 1100Z, 4 SEP
M. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- NA872 LANDING 1500Z, 5 SEP
I highly doubt that recon find a closed LLC with 97L

The vort continues to remain elongated

It looks like the Wave east of 97L is getting rapped into 97L once that wave gets rapped in we should see the system developing faster
Quoting 1221. Birthmark:

Did you notice, by chance, the topic Dr. Masters wrote about in this blog? You might want to take a look before directing traffic.


The correct answer–the one we have indeed provided in previous posts (Storms & Global Warming II, Some recent updates and Storms and Climate Change) –is that there is no way to prove that Katrina either was, or was not, affected by global warming. For a single event, regardless of how extreme, such attribution is fundamentally impossible.


Link
1233. ARiot
Quoting 1208. ClimateChange:
Got to love this piece of faux science from Accuweather: http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/volcano -cooltemps-midwest/17180569

Apparently, we had "Julytober" this year due to a Russian volcano that quietly erupted to minimal fanfare. This is silly, July wasn't even that much below normal in the Midwest. It was a little cooler than average, but the coldest readings were in the Southeast. Moreover, the contiguous U.S. as a whole was 0.8 degrees warmer than normal, with much above readings in the West and Northeast. Alaska was also much warmer than normal, 1.7 degrees above the average, and fifth warmest on record. This is part of the problem with conveying global warming to the average Joe. The media likes to peddle nonsense.


I do agree with you about the problem, but let's take a look at how "news" works.

"News" deals in facts that can be attributed. Good "news" makes efforts to attribute facts to multiple credible sources. So, is this article, in it's entirety "factual" based on the attributed sources?

Yes.

But, the problem with facts is they are never the whole truth. So we have the viral myth that, "In the 1970s they said we were going into an ice age." Well, two news magazine covers did say this, and those articles quoted the minority of studies at the time. But it is a fact that the minority of published work at the time said it was possible, while the majority were climate neutral or predicted warming due to man's activity.

Now we have a significant "media" problem, they are nearly all for-profit click-farmers and they are responding to repeated but untrue accusations of bias. So, they try to be "balanced."

What they need to do, your example included, is take the time and do the work to be fair to the truth. (Like you explained)

But, that won't happen.
1234. Torito
Quoting 1228. MTWX:
Legitamate questions for those in the know...

Given how slow this season has been so far (and may continue to be), what do you think will happen to the weather this winter?? spring?? summer?? next hurricane season??

Was thinking about it last night (couldn't sleep)...

Hurricanes are a natural mechanism to release the heat built up in the oceans to keep the climate in balance. If we don't have any storms large enough to significantly release said content, how will the weather compensate?? Larger winter storms/noreasters in the winter?? More frequent/violent severe storms in spring??

Or are we looking at a "earthquake senerio" where the lack of, for lack of a better word, smaller hurricanes will cause a massive storm (hurricane, noreaster, etc...) beyond epic proportions to form to force the dissipation of heat back into the norm??


(See what happens when I can't sleep!!!)


I am weary of this years winter, I totally agree with the point of all the heat building in the Atlantic. I think this winter may be far worse than many suspect...
Quoting 1230. Stormchaser2007:
I highly doubt that recon find a closed LLC with 97L

The vort continues to remain elongated

THe pressure reading is the lowest we have seen it so far so that should help but still your right we need the vortics to consolidate
Quoting 1228. MTWX:
Legitamate questions for those in the know...

Given how slow this season has been so far (and may continue to be), what do you think will happen to the weather this winter?? spring?? summer?? next hurricane season??

Was thinking about it last night (couldn't sleep)...

Hurricanes are a natural mechanism to release the heat built up in the oceans to keep the climate in balance. If we don't have any storms large enough to significantly release said content, how will the weather compensate?? Larger winter storms/noreasters in the winter?? More frequent/violent severe storms in spring??

Or are we looking at a "earthquake senerio" where the lack of, for lack of a better word, smaller hurricanes will cause a massive storm (hurricane, noreaster, etc...) beyond epic proportions to form to force the dissipation of heat back into the norm??


(See what happens when I can't sleep!!!)


Winter will be brutal for the East Coast, Below normal to Normal for the south (Hopefully dry), And above normal for the West Coast.
1237. GatorWX
Quoting 1234. Torito:


I am weary of this years winter, I totally agree with the point of all the heat building in the Atlantic. I think this winter may be far worse than many suspect...


The Gulf and Eastern Pacific have a lot of influence on the amount of moisture able to be drawn by the troughs. Whether the pattern favors snowfall or rain, unless things change, I would assume there will be above average precipitation along the East Coast. That's my take.
Although it's far out and probably will change quite a bit... the bend back scenario is troubling. I think we all know why, and I think we'd all agree no one needs that again.
1239. hydrus
Quoting 1237. GatorWX:


The Gulf and Eastern Pacific have a lot of influence on the amount of moisture able to be drawn by the troughs. Whether the pattern favors snowfall or rain, unless things change, I would assume there will be above average precipitation along the East Coast. That's my take.
I also believe this will be a winter of extremes. Storms being the most dominant. Good Morning Josh.
1240. Torito
It was COLD outside here in MD today.... over night it hit 53 degrees and when I left home it was only 60 degrees. That cold front did remove all of the humidity around here though.
Feeling little chilly this morning in Asheville as result of this massive cold front. My professor yesterday said it was maybe the longest one he have seen in past several months.



Another one is supposed to arrive to Asheville in 48 to 72 hours. Other than a possible brief rain showers that front will bring few days from now, we should have a nice sunny week with the high pressure over Eastern USA.

Quoting 1229. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Recon Teal 70 will be going in today and just may find a Tropical Depression when they get there.

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031442
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1040 AM EDT TUE 03 SEPTEMBER 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-094

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (CARIBBEAN)
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01DDA INVEST
C. 04/1700Z
D. 16.8N 65.5W
E. 04/1730Z TO 04/2130Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Also Global Hawk will be in there again today.

4. THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
A. AIRCRAFT: NA872
B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-LEEWARD ISLANDS
C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1500Z, 04 SEP
D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
E. IP: 1900Z, 04 SEP; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
F. EP: 1000Z, 4 SEPT; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
G. ON-STATION DURATION: 15H 00M
H. ETA WFF: 1500Z, 05 SEPT
I. DROPSONDES TO BE DEPLOYED: 84
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF CIRCULATION
IN BOX BOUNDED BY 22.8N 67.5W, 17.0N 67.6W,
14.8N 55.3W AND 22.8N 55.3W
L. COMMENT: NA871 LANDING WFF AT 1100Z, 4 SEP
M. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- NA872 LANDING 1500Z, 5 SEP


It will be a short time after takeoff to reach the low as is close to St Croix.
97L just needs to pull that moisture in from the east now, and wrap it around its circulation, and then it's game one.

1244. MTWX
Quoting 1228. MTWX:
Legitamate questions for those in the know...

Given how slow this season has been so far (and may continue to be), what do you think will happen to the weather this winter?? spring?? summer?? next hurricane season??

Was thinking about it last night (couldn't sleep)...

Hurricanes are a natural mechanism to release the heat built up in the oceans to keep the climate in balance. If we don't have any storms large enough to significantly release said content, how will the weather compensate?? Larger winter storms/noreasters in the winter?? More frequent/violent severe storms in spring??

Or are we looking at a "earthquake senerio" where the lack of, for lack of a better word, smaller hurricanes will cause a massive storm (hurricane, noreaster, etc...) beyond epic proportions to form to force the dissipation of heat back into the norm??


(See what happens when I can't sleep!!!)


Actually created this series of questions as a blog entry, if anyone cares to discuss/elaborate...

That way we don't fill up Dr. Master's blog with my ramblings.

Thank You for those who have replied!!
Convection (wave) starting to wane... lol NOT SURPRISED.
1246. GatorWX
Quoting 1239. hydrus:
I also believe this will be a winter of extremes. Storms being the most dominant. Good Morning Josh.


Hey Hydrus, morning to you. Sorry, I don't think I ever caught your name. We'll have to wait and see where the pattern favors, onshore, nearshore or offshore. Will make a big difference, obviously.
Contrary to predictions, 2013's Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet

Excerpt:

“At this point it looks like this is going to be a significant forecast bust,” said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane scientist who, along with William Gray, produces the most widely read seasonal forecast. “The challenge with this year, unlike some of other forecast busts, is that there are no obvious reasons why.”
Quoting 1218. yonzabam:






Long range frequency charts always bother me. Because every year our ability to identify storms (tropical systems, tornadoes, etc) becomes easier.

In 1970 it was more difficult to accurately identify a hurricane as compared to 2012.
both seem to be edging west again run the loop the second glob seems to be moving wsw right at the northern windwards.
Very deep burst starting in 97L now...
Good morning guys
Quoting 1203. BVI:


we are getting some very heavy rain in Tortola, British Virgin Islands this morning. My cistern actually now overflowing!


I see activity in your area... and it's stationary! Would love to see the same thing here...
1253. GatorWX
Quoting 1247. nrtiwlnvragn:
Contrary to predictions, 2013's Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet

Excerpt:

“At this point it looks like this is going to be a significant forecast bust,” said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane scientist who, along with William Gray, produces the most widely read seasonal forecast. “The challenge with this year, unlike some of other forecast busts, is that there are no obvious reasons why.”


Lovely! Did you happen to read the discussion from late last night?? :) The lack of understanding is truly remarkable when it comes down to it. I appreciate their honesty.
Quoting 1251. wunderkidcayman:
Good morning guys


Good Morning XD
Link Still NE wind to the SW of the storm where winds should be NW.
Indicates there may not be a closed low... or that it is not very broad in size.
Quoting 1251. wunderkidcayman:
Good morning guys
good morning
Quoting 1160. GatorWX:
P30L moving in. I keep wondering how the ultimate interaction will be. Will they try to rotate around each other? Will they merge? I'm interested to find out what happens.

...and why isn't that wave deemed an invest yet? Looks like they will merge together and the result will jog north away from the mountains! Something to watch.

Interesting... it seems like the outflow from 97l is impacting P30l. It appears to be "flattening" the western side of the wave.The wrapping around appears to have started.
how is invest 97L doing this morning
1260. hydrus
1261. Drakoen
The circulation with 97L has become a bit better defined overnight and the convective organization has improved. Some concern still with the upper level convergence to the north.
Quoting 1229. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Also Global Hawk will be in there again today.

4. THE NASA 872 GLOBAL HAWK WILL FLY A 24-HOUR RESEARCH
MISSION OVER THIS SYSTEM
A. AIRCRAFT: NA872
B. STORM/AREA OF INTEREST: DEPRESSION 97L-LEEWARD ISLANDS
C. DEPARTURE WFF: 1500Z, 04 SEP
D. MISSION DURATION: 24H 00M
E. IP: 1900Z, 04 SEP; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
F. EP: 1000Z, 4 SEPT; 22.8 N, 67.5 W
G. ON-STATION DURATION: 15H 00M
H. ETA WFF: 1500Z, 05 SEPT
I. DROPSONDES TO BE DEPLOYED: 84
J. ALTITUDE: 55,000 TO 65,000 FT
K. PATTERN: RACE TRACK ACROSS REGION OF CIRCULATION
IN BOX BOUNDED BY 22.8N 67.5W, 17.0N 67.6W,
14.8N 55.3W AND 22.8N 55.3W
L. COMMENT: NA871 LANDING WFF AT 1100Z, 4 SEP
M. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY- NA872 LANDING 1500Z, 5 SEP


yesterday someone said the GH cannot use dropsondes? Apparently it can?
1263. GatorWX
Quoting 1260. hydrus:


Quite a push!
Quoting 1215. hurricanes2018:
DID YOU SEE THE THE RED MODEL THIS MORNING.
...and are any of these models taking into consideration the possible merger of the other wave later on? probably not...hence these models are useless.
1265. eddye
watch out when these 2 merge we can be looking at a big storm and right know it looks allright but they need 2 merge so we can see our 1st hurricane of the year
Quoting 1243. GTstormChaserCaleb:
97L just needs to pull that moisture in from the east now, and wrap it around its circulation, and then it's game one.

It kind of looks like a LLC trying to form to the SW.
Quoting 1205. louisianaboy444:
I am so tired of tracking these little poor storms...Its like an act of congress just to get anything to form now days


We don't want Congress to make the decision on cyclogenesis, we just want them to have a say-so before permitting a storm to form. Syriasly.
Quoting 1255. Abacosurf:
Link Still NE wind to the SW of the storm where winds should be NW.
Indicates there may not be a closed low... or that it is not very broad in size.


The circulation weakened because it had decoupled a bit from the convection last night. It's still centered SW of the deepest convection at the moment and probably won't fully get its act together until it's covered.
Quoting 1247. nrtiwlnvragn:
Contrary to predictions, 2013's Atlantic hurricane season has been quiet

Excerpt:

“At this point it looks like this is going to be a significant forecast bust,” said Phil Klotzbach, a Colorado State University hurricane scientist who, along with William Gray, produces the most widely read seasonal forecast. “The challenge with this year, unlike some of other forecast busts, is that there are no obvious reasons why.”


the great unknown back to the drawing board

lots of going over things for the winter

1270. Torito
97L looks impressive on satellite.
1271. Torito
Quoting 1265. eddye:
watch out when these 2 merge we can be looking at a big storm and right know it looks allright but they need 2 merge so we can see our 1st hurricane of the year


It only takes one major to turn a bust season into a active season.
I think in regards to 97L it is stationary like keeper said, but it appears to be due to some sort of minor Fujiwhara effect. It appears the 2 or rotating counter clock wise with each other, but due to the weakness of the effect the west blobs forward motion plus the effect equals it being stalled. While the East bob is actually moving faster as its Fujiwhara effect is actually in the direction of its forward motion. I think these two our going to come together, 97L being the dominant low level feature will probably suck the other TW into its energy in my opinion. The effect is very week like I said but enough to almost stall 97L.
Quoting 1262. MonsterTrough:


yesterday someone said the GH cannot use dropsondes? Apparently it can?


There are two different Global Hawks the HS3 Mission is using, #872 which does have dropsondes (AVAPS)




While #871 does not have dropsondes




Link
Hmm 97L look ok today

I say the COC is located near 15.3N 65.8W looking at the sat loops it appears to be moving W coming out of NW movement probably a center relocation or just a simple jog during those frames in night mode
Quoting 1262. MonsterTrough:


yesterday someone said the GH cannot use dropsondes? Apparently it can?
He said the one yesterday did not have them and todays would have them.
IPCC models, what a joke!!!
1277. Gearsts
Quoting 1254. CaribBoy:


Good Morning XD
Hey hello! Are you getting any of the crazy weather over the islands?
1278. GatorWX
Quoting 1261. Drakoen:
The circulation with 97L has become a bit better defined overnight and the convective organization has improved. Some concern still with the upper level convergence to the north.


I think there's still a mean low pressure area, perhaps in the 700mb range that's affecting both 97 and P30, do you feel the same? I understand the lowest pressure will be found near 97 as it has a decent surface presence, but the lack of its movement, stretched vorticity, etc seem to point to this.
The average model error for 97L screams major model fail...I don't think the Tmodels have ever done so bad. I can't pick one to trust there.
1280. Gearsts
Quoting 1274. wunderkidcayman:
Hmm 97L look ok today

I say the COC is located near 15.3N 65.8W looking at the sat loops it appears to be moving W coming out of NW movement probably a center relocation or just a simple jog during those frames in night mode
16n where the little burst is happening
Quoting 1269. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


the great unknown back to the drawing board

lots of going over things for the winter



I mostly agree with Dr. Masters that seasonal forecasts have little to no skill. We need more observation platforms over the oceans.
1282. GatorWX
Quoting 1274. wunderkidcayman:
Hmm 97L look ok today

I say the COC is located near 15.3N 65.8W looking at the sat loops it appears to be moving W coming out of NW movement probably a center relocation or just a simple jog during those frames in night mode


Location sounds good to me.
1283. hydrus
Quoting 1246. GatorWX:


Hey Hydrus, morning to you. Sorry, I don't think I ever caught your name. We'll have to wait and see where the pattern favors, onshore, nearshore or offshore. Will make a big difference, obviously.
My name is Chris. This fall may have some spring like systems with severe weather. There are some indications that next week the U.S. could have some watch boxes.

nrtiwlnvragn:

Thank you for clarification!
Quoting 1274. wunderkidcayman:
Hmm 97L look ok today

I say the COC is located near 15.3N 65.8W looking at the sat loops it appears to be moving W coming out of NW movement probably a center relocation or just a simple jog during those frames in night mode

try 15.8N 65.2W
Quoting 1279. Skyepony:
The average model error for 97L screams major model fail...I don't think the Tmodels have ever done so bad. I can't pick one to trust there.
100% agreed.
Erroneous data can result when a shark swallows one of these
Quoting 1010. Tropicsweatherpr:


Good cold overshooting tops about -75C. Let's see if it can continue to fire those in the next few hours.


will someone explain to me how cloud tops can be -75C? Doesn't water freeze at 0c?
Quoting 1228. MTWX:
Legitamate questions for those in the know...

Given how slow this season has been so far (and may continue to be), what do you think will happen to the weather this winter?? spring?? summer?? next hurricane season??

Was thinking about it last night (couldn't sleep)...

Hurricanes are a natural mechanism to release the heat built up in the oceans to keep the climate in balance. If we don't have any storms large enough to significantly release said content, how will the weather compensate?? Larger winter storms/noreasters in the winter?? More frequent/violent severe storms in spring??

Or are we looking at a "earthquake senerio" where the lack of, for lack of a better word, smaller hurricanes will cause a massive storm (hurricane, noreaster, etc...) beyond epic proportions to form to force the dissipation of heat back into the norm??


(See what happens when I can't sleep!!!)
You are right about that...I have seen a couple of seasons where there were be average to low hurricane activity only to have a real bad winter of that same year and/or followed by an intense hurricane season next. I do think in time, it does compensate. It may not do the cooling on schedule every season, but it may skip a cycle and come back with a vengeance next time. I have seen that pattern.
1290. Drakoen
Quoting 1278. GatorWX:


I think there's still a mean low pressure area, perhaps in the 700mb range that's affecting both 97 and P30, do you feel the same? I understand the lowest pressure will be found near 97 as it has a decent surface presence, but the lack of its movement, stretched vorticity, etc seem to point to this.


No, the focus of the 700mb vorticity is with 97L.

On another note, there is evidence on visible satellite imagery that 97L is trying to expand its outflow to the north.
1291. Relix
This thing going on with 97L... I find it VERY interesting. Having a blast with it. Lots of rain here i northern PR though.
1292. MTWX
Check out this loop...

There appears to be an upper level low sheering both the invest an t-wave just to the north of them. It is moving to the NW at a good clip though, and like will not be a player much longer.

Once the wave and invest consolidate, I see no reason why we shouldn't have some sort of a storm within the next 48-72 hrs.

Link
Quoting 1265. eddye:
watch out when these 2 merge we can be looking at a big storm and right know it looks allright but they need 2 merge so we can see our 1st hurricane of the year
Yup...it is possibly in the making right now (pre-stages)
1294. dipchip
In seven days NH huricane formation could move from 6th to 2nd place for latest formation in 75 years; however in 1941 when the first huricane formed on the 18th of Sept there were 4 Hurricanes formed with in 16 days thru Oct 4th.
I find it interesting that a number of the members here seem to root for tropical systems to spin up. I live on the east coast of Florida and my stomach actually tightens whenever I see a new Invest. I lived through 4 hurricanes from August 2004 to October 2005. I can attest first hand that these storms cause human misery and disrupt lives when they hit anywhere in the US. I'm not talking about a tropical storm but a good Cat. 1 or higher. They can be terrifying. Before you root for a storm...you should come to ground zero and live through one.
1296. Torito
Quoting 1287. PensacolaBuoy:
Erroneous data can result when a shark swallows one of these


LOL, INDEED.
Good Morning Class!
Pretty sure the LLC is right here under the small burst of convection.

1299. sar2401
Quoting mikatnight:
Good Morning!
7:00 am (11:00 GMT)

Not gonna win any awards with this shot. It looked like there actually was a spectacular sunrise, and if I'd have gotten to where I could take a pic 5 minutes earlier it would have been much nicer. Dex has got his habits though, gotta smell this and pee on that...

Speaking of habits, I believe I warned about this yesterday...

Dexter is more than just a little pleased with himself as he positively crows over his new-found status. If only his friends Missy, Marley, Odie and Jake could see him now!

A special thanks to all the wonderful words of congratulations for my Approvers Choice picture from yesterday. I must confess being baffled at first. When I saw congrats on the AC, I thought, what? Are we getting a new air-conditioner? And how would the blog know? (I'm really not very bright, as some of you may have already surmised) Really, really appreciate it folks. Totally got me smiling!

I'm late! Have a great day all!

Hi Mike. I've missed keeping up with your and Dexter. How come he has is own little cart? I hope he wasn't injured. Your crummy sunrise pictures are better than my best ones. :-) You have had so many great pictures of Dexter and the beach that it's about time you won an award. Congratulations!
1300. MahFL
Quoting 1243. GTstormChaserCaleb:
97L just needs to pull that moisture in from the east now, and wrap it around its circulation, and then it's game one.



No, 97L is quite capable of generating it's own moisture, the other wave will be shredded into non existence.
Quoting 1272. cheaterwon:
I think in regards to 97L it is stationary like keeper said, but it appears to be due to some sort of minor Fujiwhara effect. It appears the 2 or rotating counter clock wise with each other, but due to the weakness of the effect the west blobs forward motion plus the effect equals it being stalled. While the East bob is actually moving faster as its Fujiwhara effect is actually in the direction of its forward motion. I think these two our going to come together, 97L being the dominant low level feature will probably suck the other TW into its energy in my opinion. The effect is very week like I said but enough to almost stall 97L.
but I think..."...these two ARE going to come together"
Quoting 1288. TBayEyes:


will someone explain to me how cloud tops can be -75C? Doesn't water freeze at 0c?


The water molecules in clouds which are that high in the atmosphere become ice crystals. The ice crystals melt and become rain as they fall to earth. Except for when there are sufficient updrafts for hail to form. In this case, the hail falls when gravity overcomes the updraft velocity.
97 look like it gonna eat the wave to its east for breakfast.

poor lil fella
Quoting 1214. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning all, I see still no development as of yet. I'm wondering if 97L will wait until clearing the islands to develop.



Still looks like some uncertainty in the track.

Out of all those lines only 4 take it out to sea for good.
Quoting 1298. RascalNag:
Pretty sure the LLC is right here under the small burst of convection.


Yep that's where I have it
1307. GatorWX
Quoting 1290. Drakoen:


No, the focus of the 700mb vorticity is with 97L.

On another note, there is evidence on visible satellite imagery that 97L is trying to expand its outflow to the north.


It just seems it can't shake the other wave. The stall just east of the Antilles was quite interesting. Has a decent upper anticyclone.

Quoting 1295. CentralFLWX:
I find it interesting that a number of the members here seem to root for tropical systems to spin up. I live on the east coast of Florida and my stomach actually tightens whenever I see a new Invest. I lived through 4 hurricanes from August 2004 to October 2005. I can attest first hand that these storms cause human misery and disrupt lives when they hit anywhere in the US. I'm not talking about a tropical storm but a good Cat. 1 or higher. They can be terrifying. Before you root for a storm...you should come to ground zero and live through one.


None of us want to see a storm hurt anyone. We may rot for storms to spin, but that's because of how impressive and awe-inspiring a cyclone can be. I would never root for that same strong storm to hit anyone. Sometimes we might forecast that it will and deny reports that it won't, but that's more because we are confident in a certain forecast than due to some sadistic desire to see a hurricane destroy thousands of lives. There may be a handful of people who are in fact deranged and want Cat 5's to slam into vulnerable areas, but 99% of us would never wish for the beautiful, strong storms we like to admire to harm anyone.
Quoting 1302. WxGeekVA:
Interesting. Will the combination make one big one or will they destroy each other?
1310. MahFL
Quoting 1298. RascalNag:
Pretty sure the LLC is right here under the small burst of convection.



It still may not have a well defined LLC.
Center due south of St Croix... at 16.5N-17N
Will these two waves merge to make a little hurricane baby?
Quoting 1310. MahFL:


It still may not have a well defined LLC.

If that's the case development may not occur as quickly as some may want to believe
15.4N/65.8W center of 97L imo.
G'morning from Central OK,

Beautiful here right noe, with temps only expected to be in the low '90's, but who cares - we have something interesting in the Caribbean.

One thing little mentioned with 97L is that presence of outflow boundaries in both circulations. Indicating that it is still struggling to maintain any convection.

Regardless, it looks to be a very wet day for the folks in PR and the northern Antilles.

Stay safe and dry. Have a blast.
Very large Cumulonimbus in the distance in association with P30L

Watch for the wave to the east to slowly lose its convection over the day. It's only being fueled by divergence right now, and as we've seen in the past this year, systems with that quality often tend to have very harsh DMINs. After that it will probably become inclined to get closer to and perhaps merge with 97L.
1318. sar2401
Quoting RascalNag:
Pretty sure the LLC is right here under the small burst of convection.


Good Heavens. Here we are on day 5 of this...thing...and we still can't figure where the COC really is. It's goes west, then east, thes south, then becomes stationary again. here we are, a week away from the peak of the season, and we've had one CV wave keel over, another one will keel over in the BOC, assuming it forms, and 97L, which looks like it might still be there on Halloween, deciding what to do. In 50 years of watching tropical storms, this is, by far, the weirdest season I've ever seen.
1319. LargoFl
I guess until 97 makes its move all the models are useless..originally it wasnt supposed to be on the other side of the islands till friday or saturday then sit there for awhile...but im following the bams model since the storm is weak..if it moves under the islands and then under cuba or in cuba then all bets are off on where it goes and what it hits...days and days away yet.
1320. Relix
Guess this means its going to the Caymans.
1321. MahFL
It's pretty close to being a TD. We have not seen convection as circular as this in a long time.
Quoting 1312. SecretStormNerd:
Will these two waves merge to make a little hurricane baby?


WOULD BE SO FUN
Quoting 1299. sar2401:

Hi Mike. I've missed keeping up with your and Dexter. How come he has is own little cart? I hope he was injured. Your crummy sunrise pictures are better than my best ones. :-) You have had so many great pictures of Dexter and the beach that it's about time you won an award. Congratulations!
You hope he was injured?! LOL.
Topic: *GOES-13 (GOES-East) RSO

*Date/Time**Issued: *September 04, 2013 1355 UTC

*Product(s) or Data Impacted:*GOES-13 (GOES-East) Imager Data and
Products**

*Date/Time of Initial Impact:*September 04, 2013 **J-day 247 @
1414 UTC*
*

*Date/Time of Expected End:**September 06, 2**013 **J-day 249 @
0014 UTC*

*Length of Event:***Approx 34 hours*
*

*Details/Specifics of Change:*Requested by **NHC National Hurricane
Center. For Monitoring Tropical Systems AL97 and EP99 in the Caribbean
and theEast Pacific.
Quoting 1311. CaribBoy:
Center due south of St Croix... at 16.5N-17N


If that was the case the low level clouds that is visible near 16.5N 65.8W would be moving from N-S but its moving from E/ENE to W/WSW
1326. Relix
The system seems stalled but the overall motion still seems to be 290 degrees. No west here, that's the convection expanding to the SW just SW of the possible LLC which I believe could be around 15.7N. This is very interesting to watch though, whenever it may go.
1327. junie1
heavy rain in st.thomas right now still more to come
1328. GatorWX
Quoting 1320. Relix:
Guess this means its going to the Caymans.


Need to see if the models start trending left first. ;)
Quoting 1218. yonzabam:






The problem with your chart is the EXTREMELY small time-frame it covers. The Earth is 4.5 BILLION years old (6000 for you non science types) Using a mere 30-40 year span to prove anything is just irresponsible.

Everything happens in cycles.
1330. Torito
Quoting 1325. wunderkidcayman:


If that was the case the low level clouds that is visible near 16.5N 65.8W would be moving from N-S but its moving from E/ENE to W/WSW


ok
1332. MahFL
Heading NW.

1333. GatorWX
1334. LargoFl
flash flood watches up here...............
Quoting 1304. HurricaneCamille:
97 look like it gonna eat the wave to its east for breakfast.

poor lil fella
If it is not on the "BREAKFAST SIDEBOARD" it won't! geesh.
Quoting 1314. stormpetrol:
15.4N/65.8W center of 97L imo.

That's about the same as I have it

Quoting 1320. Relix:
Guess this means its going to the Caymans.

Are you gonna keep this up every time I have to flag you and flag you
So just stop it and yes I just flagged you again

Quoting 1309. unknowncomic:
Interesting. Will the combination make one big one or will they destroy each other?
One BIG one.
1338. bappit
Quoting 1228. MTWX:
Hurricanes are a natural mechanism to release the heat built up in the oceans to keep the climate in balance.

The trade winds dissipate far more heat from the oceans than hurricanes do. TC's are hit and miss affairs and cover only a small fraction of the oceans when they do occur. Also, the cool wakes left by TC's are from vertical mixing of the ocean, bringing up cooler water from significant depths. Yeah, I should cite a source, but I'm tired from yard work. Maybe later.
Quoting 1318. sar2401:

Good Heavens. Here we are on day 5 of this...thing...and we still can't figure where the COC really is. It's goes west, then east, thes south, then becomes stationary again. here we are, a week away from the peak of the season, and we've had one CV wave keel over, another one will keel over in the BOC, assuming it forms, and 97L, which looks like it might still be there on Halloween, deciding what to do. In 50 years of watching tropical storms, this is, by far, the weirdest season I've ever seen.


I agree 100% with what you are saying :o)
With all the years I have been here and watched my self I just don't think I have ever seen this before.... Now that I say this I was wondering if we are on the "Tail End" of a Very acctive Hurricane Season, and now getting back to a more Avaerage Season????

Taco :o)
1341. sar2401
Quoting RascalNag:
Watch for the wave to the east to slowly lose its convection over the day. It's only being fueled by divergence right now, and as we've seen in the past this year, systems with that quality often tend to have very harsh DMINs. After that it will probably become inclined to get closer to and perhaps merge with 97L.

(7L has already swallowed 2 trailing waves whole with no discernible results on 97L. Dry air is being sucked into both 97L and the blob, and the net result will be that the blob will be gone and nothing will chance in 97L. Another wave is behind this one, and the same thing will happen. We can't have a storm with waxing and waning convection and traveling COC's forever before 97L itself also disappears.
1342. Torito
Quoting 1336. wunderkidcayman:

That's about the same as I have it


Are you gonna keep this up every time I have to flag you and flag you
So just stop it and yes I just flagged you again



that's what the ignore feature is for...
1343. LargoFl
I'll repost this for the late risers here.........AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
535 AM AST WED SEP 4 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL BE IN EFFECT THIS MORNING FOR
ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. LOW PRESSURE OVER
THE CARIBBEAN SEA...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SLOWLY NORTHWEST
TODAY...AND WILL APPROACH THE LOCAL REGION TONIGHT. VERY ACTIVE
WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. VERY UNSTABLE AND
A MOIST ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE DURING THE WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...SHOWERS HAVE BEEN INCREASING OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
COASTAL WATERS SOUTH AND EAST OF THE LOCAL AREA...AS LOW PRESSURE
OVER THE CARIBBEAN SEA...APPROACHES THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHEAST.
LATEST SATELITE IMAGES SHOWS AN AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS HAS
DEVELOPED NEAR 150 MILES SOUTH OF SAINT CROIX...WITH COLD TOPS OF
-74C IN THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. ALSO...RADAR IMAGES DEPICTED A MID
LEVEL ROTATION IN THE VICINITY OF THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. PER
LATEST TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK ISSUED EARLY THIS MORNING...
THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. REGARDLESS OF TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
AFFECT PUERTO RICO LATER TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS
DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

MODELS CONTINUES VERY AGGRESSIVE IN BRINGING VERY HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS THE LOCAL AREA NEXT 48 HOURS. THEREFORE...A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR ALL PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS. HISTORICALLY...EXISTS PRECEDENT THAT WE DONT NEED
ORGANIZED SYSTEM...TO PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS
PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S VIRGIN ISLANDS. VERY-SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS
LIKE THIS ONE...HAS PRODUCED FLOODING PROBLEMS IN THE PAST. THEREFORE...
RESIDENTS AND VISITORS ACROSS PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN
ISLANDS...AS WELL AS LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR
THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM...AS EXISTS THE POTENTIAL FOR VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL ACROSS THE LOCAL ISLANDS...DURING THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. STAY TUNED TO LATEST INFORMATION FROM YOUR NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN SAN JUAN.

&&
Given 97L's continued NW motion from last night, I find it unlikely that Hispaniola will get a direct hit from the system. May pass through the channel between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico or perhaps clip the western part of Puerto Rico. Better for its future.

Quoting 1344. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Given 97L's continued NW motion from last night, I find it unlikely that Hispaniola will get a direct hit from the system. May pass through the channel between Hispaniola and Puerto Rico or perhaps clip the western part of Puerto Rico. Better for its future.



I thought 97L was moving W or WSW and has been moving in that direction for the last 5 days.
1346. hydrus
Quoting 1269. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


the great unknown back to the drawing board

lots of going over things for the winter

This season may be a bust, but my theory is that there will be a couple major hurricanes that make landfall before all is over...Not that I would ever want that to occur.
1347. junie1
Quoting 1320. Relix:
Guess this means its going to the Caymans.
hahah wow he just cant get a break
1348. sar2401
Quoting Waltanater:
You hope he was injured?! LOL.

You caught my post too fast. Changed it to "I hope he wasn't injured". I have a new keyboard coming today and maybe I'll be able to type again. :-)
Quoting 1336. wunderkidcayman:

That's about the same as I have it


Are you gonna keep this up every time I have to flag you and flag you
So just stop it and yes I just flagged you again

Stop replying to their jabs.
Everyone has their opinions on where the coc is and where the as yet unformed storm is going. As long as you reply they will continue to heckle you.
1350. GatorWX
Quoting 1338. bappit:

The trade winds dissipate far more heat from the oceans than hurricanes do. TC's are hit and miss affairs and cover only a small fraction of the oceans when they do occur. Also, the cool wakes left by TC's are from vertical mixing of the ocean, bringing up cooler water from significant depths. Yeah, I should cite a source, but I'm tired from yard work. Maybe later.


The trades cool the surface still allowing heat to be trapped at greater depths, where as you said, hurricane upwell this heat.
1351. hydrus
Quoting 1335. Waltanater:
If it is not on the "BREAKFAST SIDEBOARD" it won't! geesh.
I know the menu be heart now. I eat healthy, but I love some of the food on her menu that would be considered borderline...;)
Quoting 1307. GatorWX:


It just seems it can't shake the other wave. The stall just east of the Antilles was quite interesting. Has a decent upper anticyclone.



Should not the slow movement/lack of movement throw off these forecast tracks? One might think so?
1353. eddye
97L looking good but it should merge with the other way so it can become a big system
Quoting 1316. CaribBoy:
Very large Cumulonimbus in the distance in association with P30L

Jeez...every time you post that photo I see potential surf spots...drooling.
is look like Puerto Rico going to get some eavy rain from invest 97L SOON
Quoting 1316. CaribBoy:
Very large Cumulonimbus in the distance in association with P30L

They look like stratocumulus to me.
HERE come the rain.
1358. hydrus
Quoting 1350. GatorWX:


The trades cool the surface still allowing heat to be trapped at greater depths, where as you said, hurricane upwell this heat.
Did your read post# 1283.?
1359. bappit
Yeah, the season is a bust. Haven't had a thing to watch. Nothing to argue about. But the biggest disappointment is we haven't gotten to track Jim Cantore.
Quoting 1359. bappit:
Yeah, the season is a bust. Haven't had a thing to watch. Nothing to argue about. But the biggest disappointment is we haven't gotten to track Jim Cantore.


He spent some time with Flossie and Andrea, didn't he?
1361. WoodyFL
this looks like an almost NW motion the last few runs.

20130904 1145 16.8 64.5 T1.5/1.5 97L 97L
20130904 0545 16.2 64.0 T1.5/1.5 97L 97L
20130903 2345 15.4 64.0 T1.5/1.5 97L 97L
20130903 1745 14.4 63.2 T1.0/1.0 97L 97L
1362. LargoFl
Lets hope this does..go out to sea...........
Quoting 1355. hurricanes2018:
is look like Puerto Rico going to get some eavy rain from invest 97L SOON
maybe flooding rain over 5 inches of rain.
Starting to rain heavily on Northern Central parts of Puerto Rico. Very windy bands of strong rain. And it is only starting! Have not stopped raining since about 7:30 PM last night on this area.
1366. MTWX
Quoting 1338. bappit:

The trade winds dissipate far more heat from the oceans than hurricanes do. TC's are hit and miss affairs and cover only a small fraction of the oceans when they do occur. Also, the cool wakes left by TC's are from vertical mixing of the ocean, bringing up cooler water from significant depths. Yeah, I should cite a source, but I'm tired from yard work. Maybe later.


Thank You for your input!! Hope I catch your link for further reading!

Edit:
Actually I made the original post into a blog entry, could you please post it there, so I will see it??


97L really getting its act together now.
1368. LargoFl
1369. bappit
See my blog about hot towers. I quote from a biography about Joanne Simpson.

"Simpson, in collaboration with Herbert Riehl, proposed the 'Hot Tower' hypothesis of tropical convection in 1958. Predictions of the hypothesis were verified by field experiments 20 years later. Hot towers are clouds that carry undiluted warm, moist air from the ocean surface 15,000 meters (50,000 feet) into the air."

and

"In the late 1950s, Simpson and her former Ph.D. advisor, Riehl, turned meteorology on its ear when they showed that heat generated by the condensation of water within tall, anvil-shaped, cumulonimbus clouds called 'hot towers' provides the energy needed to keep the Hadley circulation and the trade winds running. Some people doubted this 'hot tower hypothesis.' They claimed that the energy released by the clouds would be diluted by outside air before it ever reached the cloud tops. Simpson and Riehl demonstrated that these 'protected cores' of energy transport are not only possible, but that they occur all the time in equatorial regions."

Emphasis added. They don't wait for Jim Cantore.
1370. junie1
check out pr long range radar can see a hook developing
http://radar.weather.gov/ridge/radar.php?product= N0Z&rid=JUA&loop=yes
Quoting 1351. hydrus:
I know the menu be heart now. I eat healthy, but I love some of the food on her menu that would be considered borderline...;)
yeah..don't get me wrong...some of the food is delicious, but does she have to post it each and every day on every blog!?
Quoting 1359. bappit:
Yeah, the season is a bust. Haven't had a thing to watch. Nothing to argue about. But the biggest disappointment is we haven't gotten to track Jim Cantore.

Yes, I am also missing that. Anyhow, we have been blessed up to now!
1373. Dakster
Gooooooooooooooooddddddddddd Morning, Wunderblogges!

What is going on in the Tropics?

Will anything actually form?

Could this be the year without a Hurricane?
Quoting 1367. stormpetrol:


97L really getting its act together now.


Sure Looks like she is trying to get "Stacked" I see....

Taco :o)
1376. bappit
Got to mow some more grass. Can't wait for Jim Cantore to do it for me.
1377. LargoFl
1378. GatorWX
Quoting 1352. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Should not the slow movement/lack of movement throw off these forecast tracks? One might think so?


I certainly think the stall east of the Antilles affected them a great deal.

Quoting 1358. hydrus:
Did your read post# 1283.?


Sorry Chris, I missed that one :)
Quoting 1373. Dakster:
Gooooooooooooooooddddddddddd Morning, Wunderblogges!

What is going on in the Tropics?

Will anything actually form?

Could this be the year without a Hurricane?


Many of the intensity models seem set on making 97L not only our first hurricane, but our first major as well...
I would like a potential Gabrielle to be stacked!
Quoting 1359. bappit:
Yeah, the season is a bust. Haven't had a thing to watch. Nothing to argue about. But the biggest disappointment is we haven't gotten to track Jim Cantore.
Yeah so far the season is a bust...6 TS (2 or 3 short lived)...I don't think we will track him anymore...those days are over...he belongs in the office now.

Quoting 1367. stormpetrol:


97L really getting its act together now.
what will happen when the one behind catches up?
Quoting 1374. taco2me61:


Sure Looks like she is trying to get "Stacked" I see....

Taco :o)

All women try, but some are just born that way. :)

Nat
Quoting 1373. Dakster:
Gooooooooooooooooddddddddddd Morning, Wunderblogges!

What is going on in the Tropics?

Will anything actually form?

Could this be the year without a Hurricane?

Acording to Jim Cantore The "Switch" has not been turned on "Yet"..... But from what she looks like today I think we are seeing her "Form"....


Taco :o)


97L has everything going for it now, probably will be the first hurricane of the season, just my take.
Quoting 1367. stormpetrol:


97L really getting its act together now.

What the location that you have it at
1387. GetReal


15.8N 65.2W
1388. GatorWX
Quoting 1375. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Uh oh, there appears to be a glimmer, hehe
Quoting 1383. SouthernIllinois:

All women try, but some are just born that way. :)

Nat

I was wondering if anyone was going to get it LOL :o)

Taco :o)
is the 12z running?
Quoting 1373. Dakster:
Gooooooooooooooooddddddddddd Morning, Wunderblogges!

What is going on in the Tropics?

Will anything actually form?

Could this be the year without a Hurricane?


What is going on in the Tropics? Read previous posts.

Will anything actually form? Yes.

Could this be the year without a Hurricane? No.
1392. GatorWX
Quoting 1387. GetReal:


15.8N 65.2W


Even if there is a closed circulation there, I bet it's quite stretched to the NE.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 1m

97L looks like its getting down to business
1394. ricderr
In the past, this blog has tied active hurricane seasons to climate change.
Is the relatively calm hurricane season this year indicative of climate stabilization?


actually, the experts have said that while storms will become more powerful, they would also be less common....
Good morning by the way from beautiful sunny Southern Illinois!! :) Another gem. Mid 80's and brilliant sunshine. The plants are happy. A lil dry, but nothing too extreme. Not yet anyway. The road is being pave for EXTRAORDINARY fall foliage this autumn. OMG CANNOT WAIT!!!!! :P

Natalie <3

Quoting 1386. wunderkidcayman:

What the location that you have it at


Around 15.4-6N/65.6-8W
Quoting 1383. SouthernIllinois:

All women try, but some are just born that way. :)

Nat
Unfortunately, this one does have to "work out" a bit to attain that goal!
I find it interesting that most of the models have it turning sharply Northward .
1399. LargoFl
well yesterday the NHC said the low had gone from 97..is it Back now?..strange storm this is.

97L has that look. I wonder if that wave to its east will affect it somehow; it can become its own invest/potential storm.
Quoting 1389. taco2me61:

I was wondering if anyone was going to get it LOL :o)

Taco :o)

Oh yea. My mind gets all the street humor and the dork weather blogging humor. A bartender by night, farm gal and part-time contributor to Doc M's blog during the day. ;)
1402. GatorWX
The nearest buoy at 15n 67.5w isn't indicating much.


Quoting 1397. Waltanater:
Unfortunately, this one does have to "work out" a bit to attain that goal!

Most do.
Quoting 1396. stormpetrol:


Around 15.4-6N/65.6-8W


Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



Just look and it's plain to be seen.
NASA planes Jousting in the GOM





Link
1406. LargoFl
Quoting 1404. stormpetrol:


Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



Just look and it's plain to be seen.
yes i see that too..
1407. ricderr
Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



looks more like two waves to me
1408. LargoFl
well up to 40-60% NOW...................FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS OR NOT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

GFS 6z keeps them separate systems and moves both OTS
Okay so I saw a late minute re-curve of a re-curve back to the CONUS on the GFS. Is that BS or could that verify??
1412. GatorWX
Quoting 1408. LargoFl:
well up to 40-60% NOW...................FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAVE BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING


I think that's pretty key.
1413. LargoFl
1414. Drakoen
Outflow expanding to the north and west in contrast to yesterday when dry air was causing the collapse of thunderstorms leading to low level outflow boundaries. The low level circulation is becoming increasingly defined.
Quoting 1409. HurricaneHunterJoe:
GFS 6z keeps them separate systems and moves both OTS




if 97L can get too a name storm you wont be able too call it OTS and it would have all ready hit PR by then and that's land
1416. Dakster
Thanks for the replies. I will be watching as always.

Just seems like this seasons taking a really long time to get rocking and rolling.

I wonder if that means it will last longer?
1417. 7544
Quoting 1301. Waltanater:
but I think..."...these two ARE going to come together"


morning all have to agree if 97l has stalled now and the east blob moving west when both merge and 97l will go right to ts in my opinion and ramp up faster this will be ineteresting to watch as it plays out stay tuned its goin to be a fun day
1418. LargoFl
Quoting 1412. GatorWX:


I think that's pretty key.
Gee untill this makes its move we really need to watch it..should be a TS in 24 hours models say.
Quoting 1415. Tazmanian:




if 97L can get too a name storm you wont be able too call it OTS and it would have all ready hit PR by then and that's land


True enough Taz.....
Quoting 1410. SouthernIllinois:
Okay so I saw a late minute re-curve of a re-curve back to the CONUS on the GFS. Is that BS or could that verify??



re call hurricane Jeanne it started too go OTS then did a loop back and made land fall in FL so yep it can
1421. will40
Quoting 1415. Tazmanian:




if 97L can get too a name storm you wont be able too call it OTS and it would have all ready hit PR by then and that's land


OTS is not same thing as a fish storm Tax
Just as 97l gets its act together (north of Haiti), its going to dart off to the northeast.
1423. WoodyFL
Quoting 1404. stormpetrol:


Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



Just look and it's plain to be seen.


If it could grab some moisture it could certainly help. Nothing surprises me this season.
1424. Hhunter
Mergers and Acquistions
97L is going to affect land like Taz says. In 5-7 hours we should know the outcome of the combined or separate systems(maybe the NHC will enlighten us before that time comes).
And if I had a million bux.....I would have a million bux
Recon should be taking off in about 2 and half hours.
1428. GatorWX
A little bit of banding perhaps?

Quoting 1414. Drakoen:
Outflow expanding to the north and west in contrast to yesterday when dry air was causing the collapse of thunderstorms leading to low level outflow boundaries. The low level circulation is becoming increasingly defined.


Where do you think the LLC is forming?
Nice rainy start here this morning . Most of the convection was been inland lately .

http://www.co.palm-beach.fl.us/webcams/bocainlet/
1431. LargoFl
Nam for Sunday..................
1432. WoodyFL
that has really moved nw since this morning.





Im almost praying it gets a name.....too many will be brokenhearted if it does not.
Quoting 1404. stormpetrol:


Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



Just look and it's plain to be seen.

Yeah I think you correct right now I think the center is just on the SW leading edge of it
1435. GatorWX
Lots of rain on its way.

1436. WoodyFL
Quoting 1414. Drakoen:
Outflow expanding to the north and west in contrast to yesterday when dry air was causing the collapse of thunderstorms leading to low level outflow boundaries. The low level circulation is becoming increasingly defined.


I thought some people said there was no dry air yesterday, even though the doc said there was. What were they looking at? I could see it.
Isn't there supposed to be an 11AM update from the NHC?
1439. hydrus
Quoting 1407. ricderr:
Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



looks more like two waves to me
I agree. It appears to be two separate systems..

Not according to the folks at NHC tho..

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED SEP 4 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
CENTERED ABOUT 200 MILES SOUTHEAST OF SAN JUAN PUERTO RICO HAVE
BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONCENTRATED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS APPEAR TO BE FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT BEFORE
THE SYSTEM INTERACTS WITH THE LAND MASSES OF HISPANIOLA AND PUERTO
RICO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES NORTHWESTWARD
AT ABOUT 10 MPH...AND A HIGH CHANCE...60 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. WHETHER A TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMS OR NOT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO SPREAD OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS...PUERTO RICO...AND HISPANIOLA DURING THE NEXT DAY
OR TWO. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED
TO INVESTIGATE THIS DISTURBANCE THIS AFTERNOON...IF NECESSARY.

2. DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS OVER THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO AND PORTIONS OF THE GULF OF MEXICO ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A
WESTWARD MOVING TROPICAL WAVE. DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...WILL BE SLOW
TO OCCUR. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BEVEN
Quoting 1417. 7544:


morning all have to agree if 97l has stalled now and the east blob moving west when both merge and 97l will go right to ts in my opinion and ramp up faster this will be ineteresting to watch as it plays out stay tuned its goin to be a fun day
It won't have a problem with dry air and will have pleny of moisture generated from 2 systems now. Time to "double" that ACE value!
Quoting 1383. SouthernIllinois:

All women try, but some are just born that way. :)

Nat


LMAO! Good morning sunshine!
Lol well looking at this well this would explain any NWterly movement
Notice between 60W and 65W

1443. Patrap
SYNOPSIS 2013090400

P25L … 97L (Up to 40%)
17N, 63W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Continues to be elongated SW-NE at the beginning. Slight jump to the north side of the islands. Weaker after recurvature.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, with the NE extension becoming its own pouch after a couple days.

UKMET: Any elongation toward the NE quickly disappears as 97L develops into a strong storm, remaining as such all five days.

NAVGEM: Weak. As 97L approaches the islands, NAVGEM develops a lee cyclone on the north side, which is common. 97L itself is unable to cross the islands. Rather, the lee cyclone and 97L appear to undergo a direct cyclone interaction and perhaps merger, with the resultant circulation still south of the islands. It then dissipates completely. Note that, like ECMWF and GFS, NAVGEM develops another stronger pouch to the northeast.

HWRF-GEN: Typical for HWRF-GEN, 97L develops into a strong storm. HWRF-GEN also develops a couple of small circulations to the northeast. The first one gets absorbed by 97L, while the second maintains a bit of separation and ends up to the north of 97L at 120 hours.



ECMWF -5.4 v700 120h
GFS -4.4 v700 120h
UKMET -4.1 v700 120h
NAVGEM -3.3 v700 96h
HWGEN -3.1 v700 120h

1444. bappit
Quoting 1433. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Im almost praying it gets a name.....too many will be brokenhearted if it does not.

We've had named systems. Names will not sate their inglorious appetites.
1445. Drakoen
Quoting 1429. cat6band:


Where do you think the LLC is forming?


16N 65.5W
Quoting 1404. stormpetrol:


Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



Just look and it's plain to be seen.
It would seem that the system to the east is more affected by the storm on the west. Wouldn't this suggest that the storm on the west has a lower pressure and probably more organized despite what is shown? (speculation)
1447. GatorWX

1448. GetReal


It seems that 97L has a date with the southern coast of Hispaniola.
1449. Relix
Quoting 1442. wunderkidcayman:
Lol well looking at this well this would explain any NWterly movement
Notice between 60W and 65W



Nice! Now this is something I can get behind, plussed you Wunderkid. See? I am not all that bad I just like to joke a bit with you, relax... Life is to be enjoyed!
Well....to my untrained eye (very)...it seems as though this invest is fighting itself for an LLC. One to the N and one to the S. Could this be happening? Or am I way off??
Quoting 1443. Patrap:
SYNOPSIS 2013090400

P25L … 97L (Up to 40%)
17N, 63W
700 hPa


ECMWF: Continues to be elongated SW-NE at the beginning. Slight jump to the north side of the islands. Weaker after recurvature.

GFS: Similar to ECMWF, with the NE extension becoming its own pouch after a couple days.

UKMET: Any elongation toward the NE quickly disappears as 97L develops into a strong storm, remaining as such all five days.

NAVGEM: Weak. As 97L approaches the islands, NAVGEM develops a lee cyclone on the north side, which is common. 97L itself is unable to cross the islands. Rather, the lee cyclone and 97L appear to undergo a direct cyclone interaction and perhaps merger, with the resultant circulation still south of the islands. It then dissipates completely. Note that, like ECMWF and GFS, NAVGEM develops another stronger pouch to the northeast.

HWRF-GEN: Typical for HWRF-GEN, 97L develops into a strong storm. HWRF-GEN also develops a couple of small circulations to the northeast. The first one gets absorbed by 97L, while the second maintains a bit of separation and ends up to the north of 97L at 120 hours.



ECMWF -5.4 v700 120h
GFS -4.4 v700 120h
UKMET -4.1 v700 120h
NAVGEM -3.3 v700 96h
HWGEN -3.1 v700 120h

Models still confused.
1452. bappit
Quoting 1436. WoodyFL:


I thought some people said there was no dry air yesterday, even though the doc said there was. What were they looking at? I could see it.

Maybe they were confused by high level cirrus. It looks like moist air, but it can be only a small layer above or in dry air. Lee Grenci did a blog on that. Bad Science and Water Vapor Imagery
1453. WoodyFL
just a tease 384 hours out.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1455. JLPR2
97L is looking much better on the convergence map which would correlate with the system sustaining convection.



Also, the vorts at 500mb, 700mb and 850mb look aligned. if current trend holds it should get another bump at the 2pm TWO.
img src="">

Here's what I see still a broad circulation no defined center.
Quoting 1455. JLPR2:
97L is looking much better on the convergence map which would correlate with the system sustaining convection.



Also, the vorts at 500mb, 700mb and 850mb look aligned. if current trend holds it should get another bump at the 2pm TWO.


Is it that time?
http://youtu.be/OnoNITE-CLc
1459. 7544
looks like 97l starting to get alot more convection at this hour red ball getting bigger does anyone know how long it will take for these two blobs merge if 97l has indeed stall thanks maybe 3hours ?
1460. sar2401
Quoting taco2me61:


I agree 100% with what you are saying :o)
With all the years I have been here and watched my self I just don't think I have ever seen this before.... Now that I say this I was wondering if we are on the "Tail End" of a Very acctive Hurricane Season, and now getting back to a more Avaerage Season????

Taco :o)

Ya know, Taco, I was thinking that we entered this active hurricane period in 1995. Thats' 18 years ago,and 20 years is just an average. We're now in year 18. We've had some amazingly hyperactive seasons during the time, and it now may be that we are starting back into inactive seasons. I have no clue about why seasons are slow or hyperactive, but I get the feeling, just like humans, they get worn out and need a rest. This may actually be the "new normal" we heard so much about in 2004-2005.
Quoting 1404. stormpetrol:


Actually that ball of convection is now diving SW to link up with the actual LLC imo.



Just look and it's plain to be seen.


97L is looking quite sexy at the moment. Once this thing gets going I wouldn't be surprised if it got to CAT 1 status in under 24 hours.
1462. ncstorm
hey everyone..

I see we got a tropical depression finally..
1463. hu2007
nice strong band forming to the north of td 7 i think is next to a storm of 40 mph by 11pm here in my area carolina pr is cloudy and light east wind of 5mph or less