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Correcting the South Dakota legislature's remarkable ignorance of science

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:29 PM GMT on March 29, 2010

Climate change science has come under ferocious attack in recent months. But while it is good to objectively question the science of climate change, much of what is being said in these attacks greatly distorts or makes false statements about what the science says, much to the confusion of the public and policy makers. A resolution passed last month by the South Dakota House is an iconic example of the ignorant falsehoods and distortions common in so many of these recent attacks. By a 36-30 vote, the South Dakota legislature last month passed House Concurrent Resolution 1009, "Calling for balanced teaching of global warming in the public schools of South Dakota." Thirty-four Republicans and two Democrats voted for the resolution, which, remarkably, includes a reference to astrology as being central to the behavior of the weather. Here are the resolutions, put in italics, followed by my comments:

The South Dakota Legislature urges that instruction in the public schools relating to global warming include the following:

(1) That global warming is a scientific theory rather than a proven fact;


This language is identical to what creationists used in their attempts to undermine the teaching of evolution, and is a standard trick used to attack the validity of any established scientific body of evidence. Here's how science works: Scientists collect data about the natural world. Using the aid of such tools as mathematics, scientists then construct theories to explain the observations. These theories must successfully pass review by several experts on the subject before they can be published in a scientific journal. Such "peer reviewed" science is a necessary but not sufficient condition for general acceptance of a theory; alternative theories compete, and the old theory must withstand the test of new theories. The old theory must also be validated by follow-up research by other scientists, who can duplicate the original findings. Gravity is one such theory that is well-supported by the available observations, and has withstood challenges over time. The theory of human-caused climate change is not as mature as the theory of gravity, but it is another theory that is well-supported by the available observations. While a number of alternative theories offering alternative explanations for the recent warming of the planet have been advanced, none of these have come remotely close to gaining widespread acceptance among the scientists publishing peer-reviewed papers on the subject. This is what teachers should be emphasizing to their students, not that "global warming is a scientific theory rather than a proven fact."

(2) That there are a variety of climatological, meteorological, astrological, thermological, cosmological, and ecological dynamics that can effect world weather phenomena and that the significance and interrelativity of these factors is largely speculative;

This is a wildly incorrect statement. "Astrological" refers to the superstitious belief that the movements of the stars and planets can affect the weather. We don't use horoscopes to forecast the weather! "Thermology" is the analysis of detailed infrared images of the human body, and has no relevance to weather. Finally, the laws governing the behavior of the atmosphere are not "largely speculative." Our understanding of these laws has enabled scientists to make computer forecast models that successfully tell us many days in advance what the weather is likely to be. Similar models have been built to study the climate, and these models have been very successful at simulating many aspects of the climate, such as the amount of cooling major volcanic eruptions cause. I would characterize these models as "limited," but they are getting better rapidly, and are not "largely speculative." A few English errors: "interrelativity" isn't a word, and the word "affect" instead of "effect" should have been used in the sentence.

(3) That the debate on global warming has subsumed political and philosophical viewpoints which have complicated and prejudiced the scientific investigation of global warming phenomena;

It's highly ironic that these politicians are complaining about political viewpoints complicating the issue, yet here they are asserting their own political views, laden with awful science, to further complicate things. I agree that the political debate on global warming has complicated its scientific investigation, since climate scientists must now spend time away from their research to defend their work against absurd attacks like this one. Allegations that the debate has "prejudiced" scientific investigation have not been proven, and unproven allegations have no place in an official resolution by lawmakers.

Now, here is the evidence the South Dakota Legislature uses to support their resolutions:

WHEREAS, the earth has been cooling for the last eight years despite small increases in anthropogenic carbon dioxide;

The global temperature trend between 2002 - 2009 was -0.04°C, using the NASA GISS global temperature data set. This trend is not considered mathematically (statistically) significant, meaning that the trend is so close to zero that you can't say the Earth has been cooling. Note that if one picks almost any other period of averaging over the past 40 years, a positive (warming) trend results. For example, the Earth warmed 0.14°C between 2008 and 2009 (though this is also not mathematically significant, since we're only looking at two data points). One needs a lot more data points to get a mathematically significant result, and when one is talking about the climate, it is best to look at 30+ years. The Earth has warmed by about 0.16°C per decade over the past 30 years--a mathematically significant warming trend.

WHEREAS, there is no evidence of atmospheric warming in the troposphere where the majority of warming would be taking place;

Over the 31 years that we have satellite measurements, the lower troposphere has warmed by between 0.13° - 0.15°C per decade. Thus, this statement by the South Dakota legislature is undeniably false. In fact, two of the past four months have seen the warmest temperatures ever measured in the lower atmosphere, according to the University of Alabama, Huntsville. As I've discussed before, the argument made here was in vogue among climate change contrarians prior to 2004, and was the primary method of attack on the validity of global warming theory. However, a series of papers published in 2004 and 2005 showed that global warming theory was correct, and the satellite measurements showing a lack of tropospheric warming were wrong. To continue using a skeptic argument that was discredited five years ago and is no longer used by modern-day contrarians shows a remarkable lack of political savvy on the part of the South Dakota Legislature. They should have taken a lesson from the Utah State Legislature and used the contents of the hacked emails from the University of East Anglia--that is the modern preferred way to attack climate change science. As I've pointed out before, though, these attacks are also bogus.

WHEREAS, historical climatological data shows without question the earth has gone through trends where the climate was much warmer than in our present age. The Climatic Optimum and Little Climatic Optimum are two examples. During the Little Climatic Optimum, Erik the Red settled Greenland where they farmed and raised dairy cattle. Today, ninety percent of Greenland is covered by massive ice sheets, in many places more than two miles thick;

The resolution says "without question" the Earth has gone through warmer climates, then gives one example as the "Little Climatic Optimum," which is the period from around 900 - 1200 A.D. Current climate science, as summarized in the 2007 IPCC report, rates the Little Climatic Optimum as being cooler than the present-day climate, so it is false to say the Little Climatic Optimum was "without question" warmer. Even if it was warmer, that doesn't prove that the modern warming cannot be human-caused (one can use the analogy that different diseases can produce the same symptoms, and a good doctor will perform a scientific examination to determine what is causing the symptoms.) The discussion of the Greenland Ice Sheet makes it sound as if it appeared in the past 1,000 years. That is not the case. The ice coverage of Greenland is similar today to what it was during the time of Erik the Red. Grammar errors: "Earth" should be capitalized. "Erik the Red settled Greenland where they farmed" is grammatically incorrect.

WHEREAS, the polar ice cap is subject to shifting warm water currents and the break-up of ice by high wind events. Many oceanographers believe this to be the major cause of melting polar ice, not atmospheric warming;

While natural wind patterns in the early 1990s are thought to be an important factor that contributed to the decline of the polar ice cap in recent years, I haven't seen any peer-reviewed scientific paper stating that this was the major cause of arctic sea ice loss. Natural wind patterns, warmer atmospheric temperatures, warmer ocean temperatures, and the warming influence of black soot on the ice are all important factors, and there is no consensus on which of these factors is the dominant cause of the melting.

WHEREAS, carbon dioxide is not a pollutant but rather a highly beneficial ingredient for all plant life on earth.

Webster's dictionary defines a pollutant as "man-made waste that contaminates an environment." Webster's defines "contaminate" as "to make inferior or impure." CO2 is man-made waste, and there is scientific evidence that added CO2 can make our atmosphere "inferior" to its present state. As just one example, when CO2 is dissolved in the oceans, the water grows more acidic. Corals and other creatures that build shells out of calcium carbonate cannot form their shells if the acidity passes a critical level--their shells will dissolve. Thus, for these organisms, CO2 is definitely a pollutant. Several shell-building planktonic organisms, such as coccolithophorids, pteropods, and foraminifera, form an important basis of the food chain in cold ocean waters, and the continued increase in CO2 emissions have many scientists very concerned about a collapse of the oceanic food chain in these regions in coming decades. Presumably, the South Dakota lawmakers are taking the very narrow view that a pollutant is something that harms human health when breathed. One other note: they should have said "essential" instead of "highly beneficial" when describing the relationship between CO2 and plant life.

Many scientists refer to carbon dioxide as "the gas of life";

As I discussed at the time, the reference to CO2 being the "gas of life" comes from a fossil-fuel industry-funded ad campaign from 2006, not from the scientific literature.

WHEREAS, more than 31,000 American scientists collectively signed a petition to President Obama stating: "There is no convincing scientific evidence that human release of carbon dioxide, or methane, or other greenhouse gasses is causing or will, in the foreseeable future, cause catastrophic heating of the earth's atmosphere and disruption of the earth's climate.

This a reference to the notorious "Oregon Petition," a product of the Oregon Institute of Science and Medicine (OISM). According to the Institute's web site and the book Climate Cover-up, the Institute is a farm shed situated a couple of miles outside of Cave Junction, OR (population 17,000). The Institute lists seven faculty members, two of whom are dead, and has no ongoing research and no students. It publishes creationist-friendly home-school curricula books on surviving nuclear war. The petition they created in 1999 was sent to scientists and was accompanied by a 12-page "scientific" review of climate change science filled with scientific distortions and falsehoods, printed in exactly the same style used for the prestigious journal, "Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences." A letter from Dr. Frederick Seitz, who was prominently identified as a former National Academy of Sciences president, accompanied the petition and review (at the time, Seitz was working for the fossil fuel industry-funded George C. Marshall Institute, a pro-industry think tank he helped found.) No doubt, many recipients of the petition took this to be an official National Academy of Sciences communication, and signed the petition as a result. The National Academy of Sciences issued a statement in April 2008, clarifying that it had not issued the petition, and that its position on global warming was the opposite. The petition contains no contact information for the signers, making it impossible to verify. While the petition does carry the names of legitimate scientists who do disagree with the IPCC consensus on the reality and dangers of human-caused climate change, the fraudulent way the petition was presented and the impossibility of verifying the signatures make its relevance highly questionable. An excellent post at skepticalscience.com explores the Oregon Petition's claim of 31,000 signatures in greater detail. It turns out that anyone can sign the petition and claim they are a scientist; there is no verification. The requirements for being a scientist include anyone with a Bachelor's degree in any of the following fields:

* Atmosphere, Earth, and Environment fields: atmospheric science, climatology, meteorology, astronomy, astrophysics, earth science, geochemistry, geology, geophysics, geoscience, hydrology, environmental engineering, environmental science, forestry, oceanography
* Computers and Math: computer science, mathematics, statistics
* Physics and Aerospace: physics, nuclear engineering, mechanical engineering, aerospace engineering
* Chemistry: chemistry, chemical engineering
* Biochemistry, Biology, and Agriculture: biochemistry, biophysics, biology, ecology, entomology, zoology, animal science, agricultural science, agricultural engineering, plant science, food science
* Medicine: medical science, medicine
* General Engineering and General Science: engineering, electrical engineering, metallurgy, general science

The skepticalscience.com post argues, "if we remove all the engineers, medical professionals, computer scientists, and mathematicians, then the 31,478 "scientists" turn into 13,245 actual scientists, as opposed to scientists according to the OISM's expansive definition." This represents 0.1% of the estimated 10.6 million scientists in the U.S. Now, let's consider specialists in climate change. The American Geophysical Union (AGU) has over 55,000 members, of which over 7,200 claim that atmospheric sciences is their primary field. The OISM claims 152 atmospheric scientists. Compared to the atmospheric scientist membership in the AGU, the OISM signatories are only 2.1%, and this estimate is high given the fact that the AGU does not claim all atmospheric scientists as members.

Counterbalancing the fraudulently obtained and inflated "consensus" of the Oregon Petition are the official climate change position statements of the following scientific organizations, which all agree with the consensus that "most of the global warming in recent decades can be attributed to human activities:"

American Association for the Advancement of Science
American Astronomical Society
American Chemical Society
American Geophysical Union
American Institute of Physics
American Meteorological Society
American Physical Society
Australian Coral Reef Society
Australian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
British Antarctic Survey
Canadian Foundation for Climate and Atmospheric Sciences
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society
U.S. Environmental Protection Agency
European Federation of Geologists
European Geosciences Union
European Physical Society
Federation of American Scientists
Federation of Australian Scientific and Technological Societies
Geological Society of America
Geological Society of Australia
International Union for Quaternary Research (INQUA)
International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics
National Center for Atmospheric Research
National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
Royal Meteorological Society
Royal Society of the UK

The Academies of Science from 19 different countries all endorse the consensus. Eleven countries have signed a joint statement endorsing the consensus position:
Academia Brasiliera de Ciencias (Brazil)
Royal Society of Canada
Chinese Academy of Sciences
Academie des Sciences (France)
Deutsche Akademie der Naturforscher Leopoldina (Germany)
Indian National Science Academy
Accademia dei Lincei (Italy)
Science Council of Japan
Russian Academy of Sciences
Royal Society (United Kingdom)
National Academy of Sciences (USA) (12 Mar 2009 news release)

A letter from 18 major scientific organisations to the U.S. Congress in October 2009 states:
"Observations throughout the world make it clear that climate change is occurring, and rigorous scientific research demonstrates that the greenhouse gases emitted by human activities are the primary driver. These conclusions are based on multiple independent lines of evidence, and contrary assertions are inconsistent with an objective assessment of the vast body of peer-reviewed science."

The consensus is also endorsed by a Joint statement by the Network of African Science Academies (NASAC), the Royal Society of New Zealand, and the Polish Academy of Sciences.

One can read much more on the topic at the excellent skepticalscience.com blog where I took this information from.

Moreover, there is substantial scientific evidence that increases in atmospheric carbon dioxide will produce many beneficial effects on the natural plant and animal environments of the earth."

This is true, but of course neglects to mention the many harmful effects warmer temperatures will bring.

On to the Senate
The South Dakota Senate passed by a vote of 18-17 an amended version of the resolution which eliminated most of the scientific falsehoods and distortions and corrected most of the English errors (except for the use of the non-word "interrelativity.") However, the resolution still asserts that the global warming debate has prejudiced the scientific investigation of global climatic change phenomena. The amended version now returns to the House for approval.

Commentary
The fundamental scientific ignorance displayed by the South Dakota legislature clearly makes them unqualified to recommend how science should be taught in schools. While the proposed resolution by the South Dakota legislature does not have the force of law, the debate on climate change is too important to be based on falsehoods and distortions made up by politicians or by the "Manufactured Doubt Industry." Politicians should stay out of micro-managing education, and leave the teaching to the teachers.

For further reading
Our Climate Change blogger, Dr. Ricky Rood, has an excellent post discussing politics and global warming, titled, If Lady Chatterley's Lover, then...

The New York Times has an interesting article, Darwin Foes Add Warming to Targets, that discusses how several states have introduced or approved measures mandating that opposing views on human-caused climate change and evolution should be taught in the classroom.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The Chinese seem to be going towards a cold summer for the CONUS with a warm northeast Pacific and equatorial Pacific. Can't say I buy it....more inclined to go with the European and Japanese models at this point.

hi ,sorry not a met expert .
a weak el NINO means a lot of Hurricanes and USA lanfalls ???
Quoting miamiheat:
hi ,sorry not a met expert .
a weak el NINO means a lot of Hurricanes and USA lanfalls ???


Generally any El Nino at all has a negative effect on Atlantic hurricanes and results in fewer storms and less U.S. landfalls, except in special cases like 2004. Neutral or weak La Nina conditions generally produce the most storms, and weak-moderate La Ninas generally have the greatest probability for U.S. landfalls.
Quoting StormW:


11


can't get any clearer than that!
Noticed that forecasts show that EX-TC Paul is going to re-intensify, that should be interesting to watch
Quoting Hurricanes101:
Noticed that forecasts show that EX-TC Paul is going to re-intensify, that should be interesting to watch


Well there is some upwelled cold water in the Gulf of Carpentaria....Paul did sit there an awful long time. If the forecast track is correct though and Paul exits back into the gulf farther to the south, it may not be too much of a problem. They are getting so unbelievably soaked in rain down there.

This is a time-longitude plot of mean daily zonal 850mb wind anomalies over the equatorial Pacific from October 1st of last year to yesterday. The anomalous westerlies (yellow-orange-red colors) that dominated the central and eastern Pacific from mid-January through mid-March are plain to see. However, since about March 15th, these westerlies have greatly relaxed, and easterly anomalies (blue colors) are now developing over the central equatorial Pacific. This is a further sign that El Nino is weakening and should steadily fall right off into neutral Territory by the start of the hurricane season.

The strong negative OLR anomalies we have been seeing over the central Pacific are also beginning to level off over the last couple weeks due to less surface convergence.

Texas get ready for Friday April 3, 2010:
Parts of NY and CT can use a boat, link below to storm reports 3-29 through 3-30-10:
Link
Beautiful weather down here in Lake Worth / West Palm area. Low tomorrow morning around 50, then a slow warm up. No chances of severe weather for the next week. Life is Good!
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Beautiful weather down here in Lake Worth / West Palm area. Low tomorrow morning around 50, then a slow warm up. No chances of severe weather for the next week. Life is Good!


Enjoy the break in the weather!! Dallas-ft Worth Int'l AP finally his 80F after 161 consecutive days < 80F, the 2nd longest stretch since 1898.

Oh well, that mean we'll have about 110 days over 90F, and about 30 days between 100-110F this summer :o)!!
so much flooding going on today and now my brother is driving through a snowstorm outside of Scranton, PA!..just unreal weather..
Quoting StormW:


11


:)
Paul
First Light Viz Image




Rainbow Image



Dvorak


Hi Drak...Last season we saw our first depression in late May and our first named storm in August. Do you foresee an early and consistent busy season without the long lulls between systems?
Thanks for the updates StormW. You should invest in a digital tape recorder so you can catch all the classes. We have a lot of meetings at my job and it comes in really handy!


Hurricane storm surge risk report points to south Florida damage potential

By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
March 29, 2010, 8:45PM


Five years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the New Orleans region, it may come as a surprise that the metropolitan area with the most to lose from storm surges caused by a catastrophic hurricane is the mega-urban south Florida complex of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

A new study of the potential effects of hurricanes on homes in 13 Atlantic and Gulf coast communities found that the storm surge associated with a Category 5 hurricane could damage more than 250,000 homes in southeast Florida at a cost of $53.6 billion, compared with $39.5 billion in residential damage for Virginia Beach, Va., and $33 billion for Tampa, Fla.

The study, released Monday by First American Corp., a company that provides risk information to insurance companies, ranks New Orleans sixth among at-risk coastal communities.

Compared with the Miami area, the study estimates that about 91,000 homes in metro New Orleans could suffer an estimated $17.5 billion in damage if hit by a Category 5 storm. But the study also warns that the assumptions it uses about the region's recovery in the aftermath of Katrina could have skewed those results.

Hurricane Katrina is estimated to have caused more than $80 billion in residential and other damages in the U.S., including Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and south Florida. The vast majority of that damage was the result of storm surges.


"Faced with potential staggering costs and the prospect of continuing global climate changes, insurers began abandoning coastal markets -- or have created artificial coastal buffers -- in an attempt to exclude properties vulnerable to storm surge," the First American study said. "The difficulty for insurers is that storm surge cannot be neatly contained by buffers, as some properties within the buffers may have less risk and are insurable."

Despite the continued focus on the potential for another catastrophic hurricane to hit New Orleans, the study concludes it should come as no surprise that south Florida is most at risk.
I think all luck has run out for paul. Going much further inland than expected.
A Note from the article in my last post..

The National Hurricane Center now uses the Saffir-Simpson scale only to describe the potential winds caused by the storm, and issues separate forecasts for surge heights for each storm, based on a combination of factors, including wind speeds, the size of the storm, and the topography of the coastline.
South Carolina research facility simulates hurricanes, natural disasters


Posted: Mar 30, 2010 10:39 AM EDT

RICHBURG, SC (NBC) - A new Natural Disaster Research Center, currently under construction near Richburg, will house the angry aspects of Mother Nature.

"We're really focused here on wind, fire, rain and hail," explained Julie Rochman, president of the Institute for Business and Home Safety. "The types of things that cause a lot of damage, billions of dollars in damages in this country every year."

The facility will put full-scale houses up against hurricanes and other wind-driven natural disasters.

"We'll be the only lab on the planet that can do what we do, which is put them on our turntable and test them in a very realistic replication of natural hazard conditions," Rochman said.

The highlight of the facility is a giant bank of fans. There will be 105 of them, each about 6 feet in diameter and capable of producing wind similar to those in a category 4 hurricane.

The $30 million facility will also study things like the flight of burning embers in wildfires.

The center will start replicating hurricanes this fall, just as the real hurricane season winds down.
524. JRRP
Quoting StSimonsIslandGAGuy:
On a scale of 1-10, how confident are y'all that this hurricane season will be well above normal?

By well above normal, I mean at least 13 named storms and 30% or more above normal ACE.

i am not a wishcaster but 10.5 is reazonable
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Hi Drak...Last season we saw our first depression in late May and our first named storm in August. Do you foresee an early and consistent busy season without the long lulls between systems?


Can't really tel at this point. I do foresee an early start to this season in May. Whether or not we get storm after storm cannot be foreseen with accuracy at this point.
"NASA Data Worse Than Climate-Gate Data, Space Agency Admits"

http://www.foxnews.com/scitech/2010/03/30/nasa-data-worse-than-climategate-data/?test=latestnews
527. JRRP

Quoting atmoaggie:
Some of us live in these zones...



http://www.nola.com/hurricane/index.ssf/2010/03/hurricane_storm_surge_risk_rep.html


The Gulfport/Biloxi Area should definitely be on that list.
Quoting Drakoen:


Can't really tel at this point. I do foresee an early start to this season in May. Whether or not we get storm after storm cannot be foreseen with accuracy at this point.


The good news is that with the decaying El Nino the MJO will be freed up and able to move along, hopefully allowing us to more easily predict bursting periods of activity in the Atlantic this season.

90-day MJO index:

The disturbed circulation over the Pacific due to El Nino caused major disruptions in the MJO cycle during early-mid January, late January, and during a long period from mid-February to mid-March. As the Walker Circulation has relaxed back towards its normal state over the last two weeks, the MJO has become unleashed and is once again on its merry way.

Quoting Patrap:
Fox News stories are like bad wine..,they look good on the Rack,but when opened,..well they usually smell bad.

LOL

Hi severe,..How goes it in Lakeview?


Ok then prove the story is wrong Pat. Show us that the interview didn't happen. Maybe the other mainstream media just flat didn't want to show it.
Quoting Patrap:
Fox News stories are like bad wine..,they look good on the Rack,but when opened,..well they usually smell bad.

LOL


Is that what you learned watching MSNBC?
Quoting Patrap:


Hi severe,..How goes it in Lakeview?



hehehe... We are doing A OK! We have been working on the lawn for the past week or so. The Saint Augustine grass took a licking from this past winter. Other than that I'm just trying to wrap-up my Freshman year over at HC. Only 2 1/2 more months till Summer starts.
Quoting SevereHurricane:



hehehe... We are doing A OK! We have been working on the lawn for the past week or so. The Saint Augustine Grass took a licking from this past winter. Other than that I'm just trying to wrap-up my Freshman year over at HC. Only 2 1/2 more months till Summer starts.


Yeah,I remember our conversation after the Jesuit game.

Hope ya summer comes soon nuff.

Was in Lakeview Saturday.
While Fox news is at it, might as well post some of "the good stuff".

For some reason that will perhaps fascinate the palaeo-sociologists of the far future, in what is supposed to be the Age of Reason and Enlightenment anyone who wants to declare his support for the New Superstition of catastrophic manmade “global warming” can make stuff up, exaggerate beyond all reason, and menace the infidel with death for crimes against humanity, and no one bats an eyelid.

A soberer, less silly, less politicised, and less excitable public figure, the UN’s Right-to-Food Rapporteur, has also recently used the phrase “crime against humanity”, but in the opposite context. Herr Ziegler has said, “When millions are going hungry, it is a crime against humanity that food should be diverted to biofuels”.

So, who are the criminals against humanity? The brave and diligent scientists whose research in many different fields now amply demonstrates that the chief conclusions of the UN’s climate panel are nonsense, or the pietistic true-believers whose policies allegedly designed to address the non-problem of “global warming” are already killing millions by starvation?

In Haiti, the poor are now living on mud pies made with real mud. They cannot afford anything else to eat. So they take earth, carefully remove the stones, grit, and weeds, mix it with water, add a tiny pinch of salt and a small knob of butter, and knead it and pound it and stir it into a paste, which they make into mud pies. They bake the mud pies in the sun for a few hours, then eat them or sell them to their neighbours for 3 US cents each. And somehow some of them stay alive.

Or, rather, they did. I was telling this story at a lecture to government and opposition leaders in Madrid recently, when one of the civil servants in the front row burst noisily into tears. I stopped and apologised for having caused distress. The civil servant said she had just returned from Haiti, where the doubling of world food prices had put even mud pies beyond the reach of the poorest Haitians. Now, she said, they were dying in large numbers. And she felt so helpless.

There have been food riots in a dozen major regions of the world over the past two years, but the mainstream news media have largely left them unreported. Millions are dying because food prices have doubled in two years. That doubling is the ineluctable consequence of the worldwide transfer of massive acreages of agricultural land from growing food for people who need it to growing biofuels for clunkers that don’t - a nasty spin-off from the “global warming” fraud.


That's just a sample. I'm not saying that everything at http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=9906 is bogus, but the Age of Enlightment occured in the 1700's. The Age of Reason was before that.
Can someone post the projected path or model loop for paul, if it makes it back to water? (I don't think it will for long, even if it does it'll get dragged onshore again due to land friction.)
Check out this video of a Microburst that occurred in North Carolina the other day. Truly incredible footage!

http://ow.ly/1slip
Quoting winter123:
Can someone post the projected path or model loop for paul, if it makes it back to water? (I don't think it will for long, even if it does it'll get dragged onshore again due to land friction.)


There aren't any model tracking maps that I know of that are created for storms in this area of the world, but here are the JTWC and Australian Bureau of Meteorology forecast tracks:

Joint Typhoon Warning Center:



Australian Bureau of Meteorology:


Quoting Patrap:


Hurricane storm surge risk report points to south Florida damage potential

By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
March 29, 2010, 8:45PM


Five years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the New Orleans region, it may come as a surprise that the metropolitan area with the most to lose from storm surges caused by a catastrophic hurricane is the mega-urban south Florida complex of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

A new study of the potential effects of hurricanes on homes in 13 Atlantic and Gulf coast communities found that the storm surge associated with a Category 5 hurricane could damage more than 250,000 homes in southeast Florida at a cost of $53.6 billion, compared with $39.5 billion in residential damage for Virginia Beach, Va., and $33 billion for Tampa, Fla.

The study, released Monday by First American Corp., a company that provides risk information to insurance companies, ranks New Orleans sixth among at-risk coastal communities.

Compared with the Miami area, the study estimates that about 91,000 homes in metro New Orleans could suffer an estimated $17.5 billion in damage if hit by a Category 5 storm. But the study also warns that the assumptions it uses about the region's recovery in the aftermath of Katrina could have skewed those results.

Hurricane Katrina is estimated to have caused more than $80 billion in residential and other damages in the U.S., including Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and south Florida. The vast majority of that damage was the result of storm surges.


"Faced with potential staggering costs and the prospect of continuing global climate changes, insurers began abandoning coastal markets -- or have created artificial coastal buffers -- in an attempt to exclude properties vulnerable to storm surge," the First American study said. "The difficulty for insurers is that storm surge cannot be neatly contained by buffers, as some properties within the buffers may have less risk and are insurable."

Despite the continued focus on the potential for another catastrophic hurricane to hit New Orleans, the study concludes it should come as no surprise that south Florida is most at risk.


I dont know why they say this is a surprise? however I find it funny it was a study on Gulf Coast Cities that included Miami which is not a gulf coast city..
Where the heck is Richborg?!?!?!?!
Quoting Skyepony:


I knew if anyone had it it was you Skye lol. That looks like all GFS ensemble members though, but better than nothing :)
Quoting Bordonaro:
Texas get ready for Friday April 3, 2010:

Maybe April 3, 2010 is Friday in your part of the world, stranger, but it shore 'nuff ain't down here in Texas!
I wish I could write as well as this guy.

Just look at some of the other postings on this site. Bossy, hand-wringing, whingeing demands that the economies of the West should be selectively shut down, because otherwise the polar ice will melt, the sea will rise, coral islands will drown, tempests will roar, plagues, famines, droughts and floods will stalk the Earth, and there will be Horsemen of the Apocalypse all over the place.

There is no scientific basis for any of it. None whatsoever. The whole thing has been made up by a tiny handful of malevolent, radicalised scientists highly placed in various Western meteorological organisations. If you want to know who they are, read online the Climategate emails that they exchanged with one another over the past ten years. You will be struck - as I was - by just how nasty these fraudsters are.

If you want to know which scientific frauds each of these wretches committed, come to my lectures across Australia in late January and early February. Dates, times and venues will be posted from mid-January at www.scienceandpublicpolicy.org.

You will also be struck by how cunning these nasty fraudsters are. Science these days is so very highly specialised that a scientist looking at science outside his specialist field is just as much in the dark as a layman with no scientific knowledge at all. If a couple of dozen in different sub-disciplines conspire together to make up bad science - and that is what Climategate shows the UN’s climate panel did - then the vast majority of the thousands of scientists participating worldwide will simply be unaware that they are being deceived, and they will be even more easily deceived than the layman, because they will tend to trust colleagues in their own profession.

The big lie peddled by the UN is the notion that a doubling of CO2 concentration will cause as much as 2-4.5C° of “global warming”. In fact, according to a stream of recent papers in the peer-reviewed journals, it will cause more like 0.5-0.8C° of warming. That is all - and it is harmless.

There has been global warming for 300 years, but we could have influenced just 20 years of warming - the 1980s and ’90s - and even then only in theory. For even if the IPCC were correct in its wildly-exaggerated estimate that CO2 caused 0.8 Watts per square meter of radiative forcing, a fall in cloud cover during these two decades caused more than five and a half times as much forcing, at 4.5 W/m2.


http://www.onlineopinion.com.au/view.asp?article=9906&page=3
Quoting Patrap:

Despite the continued focus on the potential for another catastrophic hurricane to hit New Orleans, the study concludes it should come as no surprise that south Florida is most at risk.


Pat,
Andrew same ashore at the tip of the piepoint of civilization down there. Had it come in even twenty miles further north the damage would have tripled. If it had made the turn north 50 miles sooner it would have got Okeechobee Lake Tampa and Orlando. Storm surge was 14 feet.. keeping in mind that Andrew was cruising along so there wasn't much time to pack the water. It is a catastrophe in the wings just waiting for a storm.
We are like a sore thumb stuck out for someone to hit.

Having said that, its hard to imagine that something like Andrew could happen again in my lifetime.

The three storms, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma coming through in the same season was also unusual. I hope that this season is as quiet for our area as last year, we the bad economy it would hurt those who can't afford to live now.
Quoting bappit:
I wish I could write as well as this guy.


Do you agree with him? Lol.
Quoting zoomiami:
We are like a sore thumb stuck out for someone to hit.

Having said that, its hard to imagine that something like Andrew could happen again in my lifetime.

The three storms, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma coming through in the same season was also unusual. I hope that this season is as quiet for our area as last year, with the bad economy it would hurt those who can't afford to live now.
Quoting zoomiami:


Why did you quote yourself? LOL. Well anyway, hoping won't do anything. It either happens or doesn't.
Quoting zoomiami:
We are like a sore thumb stuck out for someone to hit.

Having said that, its hard to imagine that something like Andrew could happen again in my lifetime.

The three storms, Katrina, Rita, and Wilma coming through in the same season was also unusual. I hope that this season is as quiet for our area as last year, we the bad economy it would hurt those who can't afford to live now.


Do you have Home Owners Insurance or do your parents?
Thought maybe you did Levi. Heck, maybe you wrote that. LOL
In Earth’s 4.6 billion-year history, there have been many climate changes, Wax notes, with changes in atmospheric composition and warming/cooling periods. “For seven-eighths of our planet’s history, we know basically zilch about climate.

Link
“In that almost 5 billion-year period, we’ve only had instrument measurements of climate for 150 years or so and historical data for about 1,000 years. Beyond that, it’s all proxy data from tree growth rings, Arctic ice cores, etc. Carbon dioxide as a result of man’s activity covers such a small time span and is so minuscule a player in Earth’s climate as to be almost dismissible.
This IS named the "Weather Underground" site after all. I didn't expect political rhetoric, just a good place to discuss weather and hurricanes. huh

at least the sat loops are worth the $12
The Ocean Surface Topography Mission (OSTM)/Jason-2 is an international satellite mission that will extend into the next decade the continuous climate record of sea surface height measurements begun in 1992 by the joint NASA/Centre National d'Etudes Spatiales (CNES) Topex/Poseidon mission and continued in 2001 by the NASA/CNES Jason-1 mission. This multi-decadal record has already helped scientists study global sea level rise and better understand how ocean circula-tion and climate change are related.

Developed and proven through the joint efforts of NASA and CNES, high-precision ocean altimetry measures the distance between a satellite and the ocean surface to within a few centimeters. Accurate observations of variations in sea surface height%u2014also known as ocean topography%u2014provide scientists with information about the speed and direction of ocean currents and heat stored in the ocean. This information, in turn, reveals global climate variations.

With OSTM/Jason-2, ocean altimetry has come of age. The mission will serve as a bridge to transition collection of these measurements to the world's weather and climate forecasting agencies, which will use them for short- and seasonal-to-long-range weather and climate forecasting.

Sea level rise is one of the most important consequences and indicators of global climate change. From Topex/Poseidon and Jason-1 we know mean sea level has risen by about three millimeters a year since 1993. This is about twice the estimates from tide gauges for the previous century, indicating a possible recent acceleration. OSTM/Jason-2 will further monitor this trend and allow us to better understand year-to-year variations.

The speedup of ice melting in Greenland and Antarctica is a wild card in predicting future sea level rise. Measurements from Jason-1 and OSTM/Jason-2, coupled with information from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace) mission, will provide crucial information on the relative contributions of glacier melting and ocean heating to sea level change.

Earth's oceans are a thermostat for our planet, keeping it from heating up quickly. More than 80 percent of the heat from global warming over the past 50 years has been absorbed by the oceans. Scientists want to know how much more heat the oceans can absorb, and how the warmer water affects Earth's atmosphere. OSTM/Jason-2 will help them better calculate the oceans' ability to store heat.

The mission will also allow us to better understand large-scale climate phenomena like El Nio and La Nia, which can have wide-reaching effects.

OSTM/Jason-2 data will be used in applications as diverse as, for example, routing ships, improving the safety and efficiency of offshore industry operations, managing fisheries, forecast-ing hurricanes and monitoring river and lake levels.



The speedup of ice melting in Greenland and Antarctica is a wild card in predicting future sea level rise. Measurements from Jason-1 and OSTM/Jason-2, coupled with information from NASA's Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (Grace) mission, will provide crucial information on the relative contributions of glacier melting and ocean heating to sea level change.

Earth's oceans are a thermostat for our planet, keeping it from heating up quickly. More than 80 percent of the heat from global warming over the past 50 years has been absorbed by the oceans. Scientists want to know how much more heat the oceans can absorb, and how the warmer water affects Earth's atmosphere. OSTM/Jason-2 will help them better calculate the oceans' ability to store heat.

The mission will also allow us to better understand large-scale climate phenomena like El Nio and La Nia, which can have wide-reaching effects.

OSTM/Jason-2 data will be used in applications as diverse as, for example, routing ships, improving the safety and efficiency of offshore industry operations, managing fisheries, forecast-ing hurricanes and monitoring river and lake levels.

OSTM/Jason-2's primary payload includes five instruments similar to those aboard Jason-1, along with three experimental instruments. Its main instrument is an altimeter that precisely measures the distance from the satellite to the ocean surface. Its radiometer measures the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere, which can distort the altimeter measurements. Three location systems combine to measure the satellite's precise position in orbit. Instrument advances since Jason-1 will allow scientists to monitor the ocean in coastal regions with increased accuracy, almost 50 percent closer to coastlines that are home to nearly half of Earth's population than before. OSTM/Jason-2 is designed to last at least three years.

After its launch from California's Vandenberg Air Force Base aboard a United Launch Alliance Delta II rocket, OSTM/Jason-2 will be placed in the same orbit (1,336 kilometers) as Jason-1 at an inclination of 66 degrees to the equator. It will repeat its ground track every 10 days, covering 95 percent of the world's ice-free oceans. A tandem mission with Jason-1 will further improve tide models in coastal and shallow seas and help scientists better understand the dynamics of ocean currents and eddies.
common, they just discovered rogue waves
Pat:

They will cut the funding before enough data is in.

I'm not arguing either side. Just want to keep an open mind.
Quoting cajunkid:
common, they just discovered rogue waves


Yes, rogue waves are a new phenomena since the oceans were formed. The Hee Haw cornfield awaits that comment.
Ya may want to tune in to the Colbert Show tonight..

South Dakota Rebuts G. Warming w/ Astrology and Thermology!



BosTreeHggr

Message 1 of 1

Viewed 8 times



This would be hilarious if it weren't so frightening. The South Dakota legislature has passed a resolution with 34 Republicans and 2 Democrats that refutes global warming on "astrological" and "thermological" grounds!!! No joke!




.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/article.html

article:
Correcting the South Dakota legislature's remarkable ignorance of science


Updated: 5:54 PM GMT on March 29, 2010



The entire resolution is a sad study in mistruths and ignorance.



Stephen, can you please give a shout out or tip your hat to these geniuses??
Inappropriate emoticon Cajun.
Levi~ there was another I was going to post, from the place with the damage estimates & model performance per storm..denied access..boo..hiss
Paul looks better than it did earlier today. Good night everyone
Certainly looks like 2005 all over again if things keep going. Hopefully without us (those in Louisiana) getting smack with two major Hurricanes. Of course if we don't hit someone else will, which is why we have ....Florida :) (LOL Sorry, but Florida does get hit with the majority of storms due to it's geographical position.)

Anyways, with the GOMEX still very much colder than normal and snows/heavy rains still falling in its tributaries, I think more cyclogenesis will deffinitely from in the N Carib Sea this hurricane season. Also, if the current wave pattern holds, it looks like the W GOMEX will have a quiet year and a lot of storms will be recurved to the C GOMEX, E GOMEX, and the USEC.
Quoting SevereHurricane:
Check out this video of a Microburst that occurred in North Carolina the other day. Truly incredible footage!

http://ow.ly/1slip

Woah that was incredible
Quoting all4hurricanes:
Paul looks better than it did earlier today. Good night everyone

Nothing much on radar
Paul Viz Image



Rainbow

GFS, NGP & CMC for PAUL can be seen here.
Wow....the GFS/CMC ensemble consensus says Paul came from the remnants of Cyclone Ului! I haven't been tracking Paul closely so I don't know if this is indeed the case.

Yes, rogue waves are a new phenomena… since at least 1972….Just for fun...

img src="" alt="" />
Hopefully Paul will cool the waters over the reefs.
And spread frags to lower areas in the thermocline.
Quoting Levi32:
Wow....the GFS/CMC ensemble consensus says Paul came from the remnants of Cyclone Ului! I haven't been tracking Paul closely so I don't know if this is indeed the case.



Just went through the satellite archives....the model track above is inaccurate, as Ului went southwest of the Gulf of Carpentaria after landfall, not up east of it. Also, at the time when Paul was beginning to form, whatever was left of Ului would still have to have been well off to the south. At this point her circulation was almost completely gone, but there was enough data to do a rough extrapolation and see that she couldn't have moved that fast. Therefore, I doubt she had anything to do with the formation of Paul.
576. JRRP
73 tropical waves formed in 2005... Jun 15 tropical waves
59 tropical waves formed in 2006... Jun 12 tropical waves
60 tropical waves formed in 2007... Sep 13 tropical waves
60 tropical waves formed in 2008... Sep 12 tropical waves
56 tropical waves formed in 2009... Aug 12 tropical waves
Quoting spathy:
Hopefully Paul will cool the waters over the reefs.
And spread frags to lower areas in the thermocline.


There has already been some upwelling of cold water.

Quoting Levi32:


Just went through the satellite archives....the model track above is inaccurate, as Ului went southwest of the Gulf of Carpentaria after landfall, not up east of it. Also, at the time when Paul was beginning to form, whatever was left of Ului would still have to have been well off to the south. At this point her circulation was almost completely gone, but there was enough data to do a rough extrapolation and see that she couldn't have moved that fast. Therefore, I doubt she had anything to do with the formation of Paul.

Maybe a little remnant vorticity advection?
Quoting Levi32:


There has already been some upwelling of cold water.


That product gets SST from AMSR-E, one of only a couple of our satellite instruments capable of SST measurement through the clouds. Caveat is, it has a narrow swath. Get it sometimes, sometimes you don't.

Got it today (kinda):


Quoting help4u:
I alaways love it when ultra man leads the worship sevices.Maybe his favorite news CNN can cover one of the services,and he could bring in the great Algore to lead prayer.And the one we have been waiting for could drop in out of his heavenly throne.AMEN!!!!!Apocalypse-induced misanthropic environmental nervousness!!Tommorrow services will be about off shore drilling ordered by the great leader Barack Obama!!!But since he is the one we have been waiting for,No problem!!!!!!


Makes no sense.
Quoting atmoaggie:

That product gets SST from AMSR-E, one of only a couple of our satellite instruments capable of SST measurement through the clouds. Caveat is, it has a narrow swath. Get it sometimes, sometimes you don't.

Got it today:


That really exposes the warmth in our basin
Quoting JRRP:
73 tropical waves formed in 2005
59 tropical waves formed in 2006
60 tropical waves formed in 2007
60 tropical waves formed in 2008
56 tropical waves formed in 2009


And the point is?
Quoting atmoaggie:

Maybe a little remnant vorticity advection?


Nah...this is where Ului was on March 23rd based on visible imagery. The 2nd image was only 9 hours later during the night. Notice how fast Paul popped up lol. He formed from a monster monsoon trough or something.



By the way, Dr. Masters is in San Francisco for the radio show and and will also be on Thursday.
C'mon get off your keyboards and pick up the phone.

I'm not calling in because I don't know enough to talk about.
Some of you could liven up the show with good questions and discussion.
586. JRRP
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


And the point is?

The amount of tropical waves is not necessarily related to an active season
Quoting atmoaggie:

That product gets SST from AMSR-E, one of only a couple of our satellite instruments capable of SST measurement through the clouds. Caveat is, it has a narrow swath. Get it sometimes, sometimes you don't.

Got it today:




Yeah, and it caught Paul's upwelling (can't tell if it's showing up on your image it's so small looking at it globally). That kind of cooling couldn't have been old data. It was obviously upwelling.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


And the point is?


http://www.nytimes.com/2010/03/30/science/earth/30warming.html?src=me&ref=general

Great blog, Jeff.

As Orwell said: Political Language...is designed to make lies sound truthful and murder respectable, and to give an appearance of solidity to pure wind.

Orwell, George. Politics and the English Language, Horizon, No. 76, April 1946.


And if you check the link, above, you will see that TV meteorologists are more likely to be GW skeptics than others who work in atmospheric science. I suppose they believe they are pandering to their audience. Down the road that will earn them the contempt of their audience; it has already earned mine.
Quoting cajunkid:
In Earth’s 4.6 billion-year history, there have been many climate changes, Wax notes, with changes in atmospheric composition and warming/cooling periods. “For seven-eighths of our planet’s history, we know basically zilch about climate.

Link



For about 99.999% of humanity's history, we knew zilch about gravity. Thanks to Newton and later Einstein, and a series of verifying observations, we understand it pretty well, now. What establishing a scientifically valid position requires is a robust and verifiable theory. One grounded in physics, and the laws of thermodynamics. Like climate modeling revealing what happens when you pour CO2 into a planetary atmosphere. So your historical argument is irrelevant bunk. Try again.
Outstanding commentary, Dr. Masters! I greatly enjoyed reading it.

I'm also amused by those who think teaching science is "teaching one side." At least the evolution "skeptics" have creationism as some sort of counter, though creationism isn't even vaguely scientific. Global Warming denialists have absolutely nothing to offer in place of current scientific theory. They'll try *anything*...even if contradicts what they said yesterday.

They just *know* that all those climatologists, especially the IPCC, are wrong! It's truly laughable.

I would advise denialists to consider the track record of non-scientists versus scientists in scientific matters, particularly well-established scientific theory.
592. JRRP
oh no de nuevo no hablar de lo mismo :S...
regresare en mayo cuando salgan las primeras ondas tropicales

Quoting JRRP:
oh no de nuevo no hablar de lo mismo :S...
regresare en mayo cuando salgan las primeras ondas tropicales



No meteo caribe todavía, así que si la política que le molesta, sí, vuelva más tarde.
Quoting JRRP:

The amount of tropical waves is not necessarily related to an active season


but it does change the odds
Latest TRMM pass of Paul, which is now 11 hours old.

596. xcool
hi
597. Xyrus
Quoting cajunkid:
In Earth’s 4.6 billion-year history, there have been many climate changes, Wax notes, with changes in atmospheric composition and warming/cooling periods. “For seven-eighths of our planet’s history, we know basically zilch about climate.

Link


I suggest re-reading that link after studying up on logical fallacies. It makes the discussion so much more interesting when you use sources that don't have logical (let alone scientific) holes you can drive a planet through.

Also, I would like to point you to the current bodies of math and science, which have not existed for the vast majority of Earth's history. Yet they still have the predictive power to enable technology like the computer you're reading this on.

~X~

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/30/nasa-data-worse-than-climate-gate-data-giss-admits/#more-17958


Are those quotes attributed to you correct Dr. Masters?
post 538- WOW!!
Quoting WaterWitch11:


but it does change the odds
not sure but last yr we had a ton of wannnabees or sometimes called teases have a good day
Quoting SWFLgazer:
http://wattsupwiththat.com/2010/03/30/nasa-data-worse-than-climate-gate-data-giss-admits/#more-1795 8


Are those quotes attributed to you correct Dr. Masters?

From reading that article, It appears that the comments are attributed to Dr. Jeff Masters.
My thinking on Ex-TC Paul is that he wont make it back to TC status. The main convection area is moving SW and the COC is still near the coast.

Suppose to get around 85 degrees on Saturday here.. 81 today. 87 on Sunday!
Just thought I'd let everyone know, Barometer Bob Brookens has done 2 interviews while at the NHC Hurricane Conference
Jack Bevens from NHC
and Jamie Rhome from NHC

Maybe Dr. Jeff Masters could turn up and join Bob on the show.
Guests include: Bill Read, NHC Director, Dennis Feltgen, NHC PIO, Mike Buresh, Action News CBS47/Fox30 Jacksonville, FL. This will be a LIVE remote broadcast from Hooters Pointe Orlando.
605. IKE
"""Corrections are needed, Masters says, “since there are only a few thousand surface temperature recording sites with records going back 100+ years.”"""...........


And how old is this planet?

Everyone on here talking GW/CC into the ground...find another hobby...give us all a break from it. Enough is enough.
Quoting IKE:
"""Corrections are needed, Masters says, “since there are only a few thousand surface temperature recording sites with records going back 100+ years.”"""...........


And how old is this planet?

Everyone on here talking GW/CC into the ground...find another hobby...give us all a break from it. Enough is enough.

The earth we all live on is approx 11billion years old, give or take a few billion years.
I am with you IKE, give us all a break please, I didn't pay my AU$12.50 to become a member to be bombarded with GW crap.
You know,,Dr. Masters provides great information in his blogs on Global warming,,Climate change,,or whatever,,,but isnt this a tropical weather blog,,and shouldnt Dr. Masters be at the National Hurricane Conference taking place in Orlando this week, rather than talk shows in liberal friendly California????
Thanks for some reality Ike and Aussie storm!!
The Aussies say El Nino breakdown resumes in its latest ENSO Update.

Link
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
The Aussies say El Nino breakdown resumes in its latest ENSO Update.

Link

Thanks for reminding me, I totally forgot about it being released today.
Quoting beeleeva:
You know,,Dr. Masters provides great information in his blogs on Global warming,,Climate change,,or whatever,,,but isnt this a tropical weather blog,,and shouldnt Dr. Masters be at the National Hurricane Conference taking place in Orlando this week, rather than talk shows in liberal friendly California????

I honestly thought he would be at the conference. Is he going to be a phone interview or a live interview?
612. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

The earth we all live on is approx 11billion years old, give or take a few billion years.
I am with you IKE, give us all a break please, I didn't pay my AU$12.50 to become a member to be bombarded with GW crap.


I'm not saying it isn't important, but...just tired of reading...er, skipping over, the posts about it.

And I think the planet is warming, but I'm not sure it's not reversible. Could I be wrong? Yes.


Quoting beeleeva:
You know,,Dr. Masters provides great information in his blogs on Global warming,,Climate change,,or whatever,,,but isnt this a tropical weather blog,,and shouldnt Dr. Masters be at the National Hurricane Conference taking place in Orlando this week, rather than talk shows in liberal friendly California????


A few years ago it was more of a tropical weather blog, more often. I understand it's the off season in the northern hemisphere, but it's in season in the southern hemisphere.

You do raise an interesting question, especially considering what may be lying ahead in the 2010 Atlantic season.
Quoting IKE:
"""Corrections are needed, Masters says, “since there are only a few thousand surface temperature recording sites with records going back 100+ years.”"""...........


And how old is this planet?

Everyone on here talking GW/CC into the ground...find another hobby...give us all a break from it. Enough is enough.

IKE, how reliably placed are those few thousand sites, Places that were in the perfect place 100 years ago could be completely different now a days.
614. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

IKE, how reliably placed are those few thousand sites, Places that were in the perfect place 100 years ago could be completely different now a days.


True. Numbers are/could be flawed.

Now back to the weather...looks like my AC gets a 6-7 month workout starting today with highs in the 80's. Summertime is getting close!
615. IKE
Oh yeah....

61 days...
17 hours...
39 minutes and it starts...
Quoting IKE:


True. Numbers are/could be flawed.

Now back to the weather...looks like my AC gets a 6-7 month workout starting today with highs in the 80's. Summertime is getting close!

My electric blanket is going to get a 6 month workout starting tomorrow night, Daytime high's of mid to low 70's and low's of mid to low 50's this coming week
Emergency declared: Arnhem land lashed by ex-cyclone weather



The Northern Territory Chief Minister and Police Commissioner have declared an emergency situation for parts of East Arnhem land and the Roper and Gulf Shire affected by ex-tropical cyclone Paul.

The region has been hit by a large amount of rain with local flooding occurring through communities from Millingimbi to Numbulwar, including Nhulunbuy and Groote Eylandt.

Rising river levels have cut off Numbulwar, Bulman and Ngukurr.

"Strong winds and continued rain have caused damage in the region with power blackouts also reported in many homes," Mr Henderson said.

Police Commissioner John McRoberts said emergency services were on hand to provide assistance to those affected.

"We already have people on the ground ready to help those affected and will continue to monitor the situation closely, with additional resources ready to be deployed as required," Mr McRoberts said.

Mr Henderson said personal hardship assistance would be available through the Department of Health and Families.

"Emergency Services will arrange food drops and evacuations where necessary," Mr Henderson said.

The ex-cyclone is causing storms from Cape York to the Timor Sea and down through the Roper-McArthur region and the Bureau of Meteorology has predicted more flooding in the next 48 hours.

The Bureau's senior forecaster, Graeme King, said Bulman had received 421 millimetres of rain since 9am yesterday.

Elcho Island had squalls of 80 kilometres an hour overnight.

Winds measuring 60km/h were recorded at Darwin Airport, and Darwin's northern suburbs had about 50 millimetres of rain.

Two workers from the Roper Gulf Shire and a pilot escaped injury when their helicopter crashed in strong winds yesterday afternoon, 200 kilometres east of Katherine.

The Health Department has also issued a boil water alert for Numbulwar.

Mr King says the cyclone is expected to head east, back over the Gulf of Carpentaria early tomorrow, where it might redevelop into a cyclone.

"Ex-Paul basically has sat right beside Bulman for most of the last 24 hours and it's just rained and rained and rained, staggering rainfall," he said.

"We still think it is going to go east back over the Gulf of Carpentaria waters early Thursday, where it may re-develop longer term.

"It is still anybody's guess. It really has been a very unpredictable one."

- ABC
618. IKE
Quoting AussieStorm:

My electric blanket is going to get a 6 month workout starting tomorrow night, Daytime high's of mid to low 70's and low's of mid to low 50's this coming week


You're headed one way and we're headed the other..lol.
Paul soaks Gulf Country and much more to come

As Ex-Tropical Cyclone Paul wobbles over the Top End he is delivering heavy rain to Arnhem Land and is expected to spread further around the Gulf.

Paul has lost much of its intensity sitting over land, but he is expected to move offshore again on Thursday. This will allow the system to gain the much needed moisture to re-intensify into a cyclone again.

Even as an Ex-Cyclone, Paul continues to bring a drenching. Bulman of the Roper-McArthur district saw 443mm in the 24 hours to 9am today, making it their heaviest rain in at least six years.

This heavy rain has already begun to spread towards the Northern Territory/Queensland border, with Centre Island picking up 129mm. This was their heaviest rain in two years.

Expected to reach a category one cyclone again, Paul should push southeast through the Gulf of Carpentaria. He is then expected to make landfall again near the Northern Territory/Queensland border.

This means heavy rain for areas near the border, while the rain eases over Arnhem Land. Areas like Borroloola and Burketown could see well over 300mm in the coming days.

- Weatherzone
Quoting IKE:


You're headed one way and we're headed the other..lol.

That's the way it goes.
Quoting AussieStorm:

Thanks for reminding me, I totally forgot about it being released today.


I think this is big news comming from them because there was a feeling by some that El Nino would not go away by the Northern Hemisphere summer.
WASHINGTON – March 22, 2010 – The U.S. Departments of Agriculture (USDA) and Energy (DOE) and the National Science Foundation (NSF) today created a joint research program that designates nearly $50 million to develop climate system models that provide insights on climate variability and impacts on ecosystems.

Link
With this decline in El-Nino will lead to a very active tropical season with seasoned weather forecasters calling Florida as the center point for all hurricane and TS landfalls. The pattern is setting up for major trouble in Florida. Not to say there won't be landfalls outside of Florida but Florida seems to be the target this year. Some being Bastardi are comparing this year to 1964,1969, and 2004. Bastardi posted this about a month ago on Accuweather.com.
Morning to all,Ike and Aussie, I'm with you to on this gw stuff. Dont mind reading if it was more neutral not mostly one sided. As for weather 41.7 at the house this am Crazy Good Day
Temps at 80 today in Orlando and Mid to upper 80's this weekend thru all of next week. Some isolated seabreeze storms can be expected next week for C and S FL with all the heat and humidity building in. No major rain events for Florida until the second half of April by then 90's on a daily basis will really support wide spread seabreeze thunderstorm activity as a upper low moves slowly towards Florida.
Good Moring Folks. Here is today's ENSO Update from the Aussies........They are currently looking at ENSO neutral conditions by our "Autumn" just in time for the Cape Verde season.

CURRENT STATUS as at 31st March 2010
Next update expected by 14th April 2010 (two weeks after this update)

Summary: El Niño breakdown resumes
The recent decrease in trade wind strength over the Pacific, which stalled the decay of the current El Niño event, appears to have ended. Trade winds have strengthened over the Pacific during the past fortnight, leading to a slight cooling of the ocean surface temperatures in the central Pacific. In contrast, temperatures in the far eastern Pacific have risen, though this rise is a flow-on effect from a wind burst in January/February, rather than any indicator of a return to warm conditions more generally. Overall, Pacific Ocean temperatures remain at levels associated with an El Niño event, but are again cooling in line with expectations.

The most noticeable feature of the past fortnight has been the decrease in Pacific Ocean heat content, with values east of the dateline dropping to their lowest values since April 2009, indicating the deeper ocean is also slowly cooling. Likewise, sea surface height in the central and eastern Pacific is also decreasing.

Computer models suggest Pacific Ocean temperatures will cool steadily over the coming months, returning to neutral levels by the southern winter. The Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) is currently neutral and is forecast to remain so through autumn.

In Brief
Central Pacific sea surface temperatures remain warmer than the long-term average.
The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific continues to cool. The SOI has fallen slightly through March. The latest approximate 30-day value of the SOI is −12. Trade winds have strengthened in the equatorial Pacific.
Cloudiness near the date-line has fluctuated through March. Most international computer models are predicting a return to neutral conditions during the southern hemisphere autumn. Most international computer models are predicting the Pacific Ocean will cool steadily over the coming months, returning to neutral levels during the southern autumn. Typically, autumn is a transitional period for the El Niño - Southern Oscillation (ENSO), hence model predictions of El Niño that forecast through this period tend to be less reliable than at other times of the year. Recent forecasts from the POAMA model, run daily at the Bureau of Meteorology, show a steady cooling of the central Pacific with SSTs returning to neutral conditions during the southern hemisphere autumn.

THE NEXT UPDATE OF THE DETAILED SECTION ABOVE IS EXPECTED BY 14 APRIL 2010
Quoting severstorm:
Morning to all,Ike and Aussie, I'm with you to on this gw stuff. Dont mind reading if it was more neutral not mostly one sided. As for weather 41.7 at the house this am Crazy Good Day


How much rain did you recieve in March? I've recieved 10.6" average was 3.5 with 19" so far this year.
Quoting BenBIogger:


If we have nuetral or slight El-Nino conditions then this years Hurricane season will be off the chain.
630. IKE
I had 3.01 inches of rain at my house in March(Florida panhandle).

My prediction for 2010 Atlantic season was...

13
7
4.
Hi jeff9641,I've gotten 8.04 for the month and i am at 16.62 for the year. First year since 2004 that i've been about avg. rainfall. Hope it keeps coming.
Ike I'm going with 17-8-5
Jeff, We were so dry here in z-hills that with all of the rain we had no pouding of the water all went into the ground. Great for my well.
Quoting severstorm:
Hi jeff9641,I've gotten 8.04 for the month and i am at 16.62 for the year. First year since 2004 that i've been about avg. rainfall. Hope it keeps coming.


I've would have thought you would have recieved more than that. Just to your east in Lake county their was more than 10" plus of rainfall by Clermont.
I get the split effect here. Either goes south of me or goes thru dade city which is just north of me. My sister lives 8 miles south of me and she had around 11in in march.
IOD might stay positive throughout this hurricane season.
Quoting severstorm:
Jeff, We were so dry here in z-hills that with all of the rain we had no pouding of the water all went into the ground. Great for my well.


Was it because of lack of seabreeze storms last summer? I can see why because most of last summers thunderstorm activity got pushed to the eastern side of the penisula due to El-Nino last summer as we had a prevailing SW flow at the surface and aloft.
638. IKE
Quoting severstorm:
Ike I'm going with 17-8-5


I was thinking my numbers may be too low. I made the prediction about a month ago. I'll stick with it.
Quoting BenBIogger:
IOD might stay positive throughout this hurricane season.


What is the IOD?
Yes, Did not have much in the way of thunderstorms at all. Like i said not really much rain here since 2004. I talked with Stormw about the lack of storms. He wasnt quite sure why they were missing me and getting all other places wet. Crazy i guess
Quoting Jeff9641:


What is the IOD?


The Indian Ocean Dipole
Quoting IKE:


I was thinking my numbers may be too low. I made the prediction about a month ago. I'll stick with it.


17 Sounds like a good number. Some forecasters are really concerned about the panhandle and south and central Florida for landfalls. Looking like Florida is going to get slammed this year and panhandle always gets every year even with very few storms (slow season). My friends lived in Destin during Ivan and they said it was the worst experience of there life. Almost all structures near the coast were gone.
Quoting severstorm:
Jeff, We were so dry here in z-hills that with all of the rain we had no pouding of the water all went into the ground. Great for my well.


The water entering the ground didn't help your well that much when you consider the time it takes to seep. It takes a very long time for the water to move through the pours of the soil to get to the aquifer.

Were talking about hundreds of years to seep through the soil layers.

That's why the water is so pour when it gets to the aquifer.
52 degrees here at Feather Sound,FL. North of St. Petersburg, FL

Calm winds have made the bay look very surreal.
Quoting BenBIogger:


The Indian Ocean Dipole


A positive IOD helps increase precipitation over Africa. which can lead to healthier Tropical wave coming off of Africa.
Quoting IKE:
I had 3.01 inches of rain at my house in March(Florida panhandle).

My prediction for 2010 Atlantic season was...

13
7
4.


Thats in my ballpark, although I have not made a forecast yet. I'm leaning a little higher on hurricanes and major hurricanes.
Quoting IKE:


I was thinking my numbers may be too low. I made the prediction about a month ago. I'll stick with it.

I forget what my prediction was, think it was like, 20 8 5
Interesting thing to watch for this year IMHO is the "inverse" relationship between the ENSO cycle in the Pacific vs. Atlantic basin in terms of trade winds/sheer and the timing of the transition over to enso neutral conditions. In other words, while SST's will be a given, if neutral conditions do not fully materialize until August or September, could we see a slower period of activity in June/July and then an explosion of activity come September & October. Time will tell but with the current temps across the central Atlantic MDR, I think that sheer levels and SAL will be the most important factors to look at this season in terms of an early start to the season versus a more favoriable enviornment in the Fall.
It's not "global warming crap."
We are at a turning point.
World population and the attendant pollution has risen as predicted when I was a kid forty years ago.
In case you hadn't noticed this is a huge world debate along with deforestation and depletion of natural resources.
"I've got mine; to hell with the rest of the world?" Unfortunately, that is how many see Americans.
Too bad, so sad. Trash the place and leave. Aren't we are the largest per capita consumers of resources? Aren't we also an advanced civilization? Or are we fairly classed as mindless, selfish people with little concern for the world outside our borders? And many people don't even want to think of what's inside those borders either.
The global warming issue is not going away although many people wish it would and they could discredit those who are concerned about sustainable energy policy and environmental protection.
It isn't all just about money.
By the way, are you seriously complaining about the pittance you pay annually to be a member here?
It's a bit old but got the heart of Paul

Quoting severstorm:
Jeff, We were so dry here in z-hills that with all of the rain we had no pouding of the water all went into the ground. Great for my well.


The drop size also plays a role in how the water will seep into the ground.

If it starts sprinkling and it wets the soil just a little bit. The rain following will seep in very easily.

If it pours right from the start the water will tend to run off the soil and collect, until the soil has a moist layer.

Also smaller drops soak into the soil better than larger drops.
Quoting AussieStorm:

I forget what my prediction was, think it was like, 20 8 5


OUCH!! Aussie easssy on us here. 20 could be the number but I'm going with severestorm and that is 17 8 5 (maybe 6 majors). I think I posted 17 a month ago.
Starting to slowly warm up.


Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Interesting thing to watch for this year IMHO is the "inverse" relationship between the ENSO cycle in the Pacific vs. Atlantic basin in terms of trade winds/sheer and the timing of the transition over to enso neutral conditions. In other words, while SST's will be a given, if neutral conditions do not fully materialize until August or September, could we see a slower period of activity in June/July and then an explosion of activity come September & October. Time will tell but with the current temps across the central Atlantic MDR, I think that sheer levels and SAL will be the most important factors to look at this season in terms of an early start to the season versus a more favoriable enviornment in the Fall.


I heard someone saying yesterday that El Nino is still roaring along near full strength. I don't know if that's true or not...just what I've heard.

If it is still near full strength, doesn't it take like six months for it to cool off?

That's why I quoted wannabee, because it seems like that's the setup right now and into the future.
Quoting StormChaser81:


The water entering the ground didn't help your well that much when you consider the time it takes to seep. It takes a very long time for the water to move through the pours of the soil to get to the aquifer.

Were talking about hundreds of years to seep through the soil layers.

That's why the water is so pour when it gets to the aquifer.

I here you on the well part. I realize it takes time to get into the well. I live next to the green swamp and when they get lots of rain that helps me out with the well.
Quoting severstorm:

I here you on the well part. I realize it takes time to get into the well. I live next to the green swamp and when they get lots of rain that helps me out with the well.


Maybe the green swamp is what zaps some of your rain as the storms maybe forming over the warm waters of the swamp and then gets pushed by what ever the steering currents are during the year.
Quoting Chicklit:
It's not "global warming crap."
We are at a turning point.
World population and the attendant pollution has risen as predicted when I was a kid forty years ago.
In case you hadn't noticed this is a huge world debate along with deforestation and depletion of natural resources.
"I've got mine; to hell with the rest of the world?" Unfortunately, that is how many see Americans.
Too bad, so sad. Trash the place and leave. Aren't we are the largest per capita consumers of resources? Aren't we also an advanced civilization? Or are we fairly classed as mindless, selfish people with little concern for the world outside our borders? And many people don't even want to think of what's inside those borders either.
The global warming issue is not going away although many people wish it would and they could discredit those who are concerned about sustainable energy policy and environmental protection.
It isn't all just about money.


I agree with your last sentence. It's all about political power, too.
Quoting StormChaser81:


The drop size also plays a role in how the water will seep into the ground.

If it starts sprinkling and it wets the soil just a little bit. The rain following will seep in very easily.

If it pours right from the start the water will tend to run off the soil and collect, until the soil has a moist layer.

Also smaller drops soak into the soil better than larger drops.

Now that was a great point. That is what i get here. Only get that really heavy rain if and i said if i get those thunder boomers. I like your thinking.
Quoting CycloneOz:


I heard someone saying yesterday that El Nino is still roaring along near full strength. I don't know if that's true or not...just what I've heard.

If it is still near full strength, doesn't it take like six months for it to cool off?

That's why I quoted wannabee, because it seems like that's the setup right now and into the future.


OZ, who ever stated El-Nino is near full strenght was wrong as the El-Nino is on a steady decline. Could be near neutral come June.
Quoting severstorm:

I here you on the well part. I realize it takes time to get into the well. I live next to the green swamp and when they get lots of rain that helps me out with the well.


Is there any large amounts of concrete like parking lots or stuff like that around your house or a change in elevation?

Because large areas of concrete can cause small lifting from a the heat island effect and can cause storms to lose some moisture or be pushed around the area. This is small scale stuff, but I've seen it happen before.
ObamatoAllowDrilling
So much for 'not in my backyard.'
Policy switch will involve Virginia coast and GOM. This is to get the energy bill through Congress.
Quoting Chicklit:
It's not "global warming crap."
We are at a turning point.
World population and the attendant pollution has risen as predicted when I was a kid forty years ago.
In case you hadn't noticed this is a huge world debate along with deforestation and depletion of natural resources.
"I've got mine; to hell with the rest of the world?" Unfortunately, that is how many see Americans.
Too bad, so sad. Trash the place and leave. Aren't we are the largest per capita consumers of resources? Aren't we also an advanced civilization? Or are we fairly classed as mindless, selfish people with little concern for the world outside our borders? And many people don't even want to think of what's inside those borders either.
The global warming issue is not going away although many people wish it would and they could discredit those who are concerned about sustainable energy policy and environmental protection.
It isn't all just about money.
By the way, are you seriously complaining about the pittance you pay annually to be a member here?

I take it this is directed towards me..... If not then I apologise.
Our national Government wants to introduce a so called "global warming" tax. It will push the cost of electricity up by 60% which will then force the price of everything else up by about the same amount. There is a lot of people here in Australia that are just living hand to mouth. If the price of everything goes up 60% how are these people and people almost living hand to mouth meant to get by.

How can a government tax something that hasn't been 100% proven?
Quoting Jeff9641:


Maybe the green swamp is what zaps some of your rain as the storms maybe forming over the warm waters of the swamp and then gets pushed by what ever the steering currents are during the year.
Jeff, you make a very good point there about the green swamp. Never thought of that.To tellyou the truth after hurr. Charley alot of the heavy thunderstorms went away. I know that sounds weird but thats what i've noticed.
Quoting Chicklit:
ObamatoAllowDrilling
So much for 'not in my backyard.'
Policy switch will involve Virginia coast and GOM. This is to get the energy bill through Congress.


This would only be in Federal waters which stretch out pretty far from the coast.

But the way the currents are in the GOM it would steer it right into the Gulf stream and right in the Keys causing major damage to the ecosystems down there.
Quoting SevereHurricane:
Check out this video of a Microburst that occurred in North Carolina the other day. Truly incredible footage!

http://ow.ly/1slip


Yo StormChaser81! Have you seen this video clip?

Trees and poles are my biggest concern out in the field.
666. P451
our tempest... what a system. What gives with every system exploding like this? This has to be unprecedented. Every single storm explodes into a super storm off the east coast. It's happened since the end of LAST March!

667. P451
Quoting BenBIogger:
Starting to slowly warm up.




After this winter you knew the Gulf and SE coastlines would be cooler than usual. However they will warm up. Come late June and into July I doubt we'll see much of a negative anomaly persisting. Perhaps the opposite as I am in a firm belief that we're going to have a very hot and dry summer throughout the east.

Quoting Chicklit:
It's not "global warming crap."
We are at a turning point.
World population and the attendant pollution has risen as predicted when I was a kid forty years ago.
In case you hadn't noticed this is a huge world debate along with deforestation and depletion of natural resources.
"I've got mine; to hell with the rest of the world?" Unfortunately, that is how many see Americans.
Too bad, so sad. Trash the place and leave. Aren't we are the largest per capita consumers of resources? Aren't we also an advanced civilization? Or are we fairly classed as mindless, selfish people with little concern for the world outside our borders? And many people don't even want to think of what's inside those borders either.
The global warming issue is not going away although many people wish it would and they could discredit those who are concerned about sustainable energy policy and environmental protection.
It isn't all just about money.
By the way, are you seriously complaining about the pittance you pay annually to be a member here?
+

be careful tilting at those windmills, ma'am...your hair might get caught in the blades...
Quoting StormChaser81:


Is there any large amounts of concrete like parking lots or stuff like that around your house or a change in elevation?

Because large areas of concrete can cause small lifting from a the heat island effect and can cause storms to lose some moisture or be pushed around the area. This is small scale stuff, but I've seen it happen before.
Another great point. to your question is yes, I live in what they call the fish bowl. I'm in the bottom of the bowl.That is excatly what happen in my area with the rain and storms.Heavy to the west little or miss me and then get heavy to my east. Thanks for your imput guys. I've got to get back to work.Thanks again.
Quoting StormChaser81:


This would only be in Federal waters which stretch out pretty far from the coast.

Federal waters are from 12 miles off the coast to 200 miles off the coast, in most cases.

Also, I may be wrong, but the VA continental shelf doesn't have really good geology for oil deposits.
Quoting P451:
our tempest... what a system. What gives with every system exploding like this? This has to be unprecedented. Every single storm explodes into a super storm off the east coast. It's happened since the end of LAST March!


I noticed there is a system off the NW CONUS. Could it be the deep low that caused the severe sand/dust storm in China?
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yo StormChaser81! Have you seen this video clip?

Trees and poles are my biggest concern out in the field.


Extreme downburst, 100+mph winds.
Quoting jeffs713:

Federal waters are from 12 miles off the coast to 200 miles off the coast, in most cases.

Also, I may be wrong, but the VA continental shelf doesn't have really good geology for oil deposits.


They would be drilling off VA for Natural Gases, Im pretty sure.
Quoting StormChaser81:


Is there any large amounts of concrete like parking lots or stuff like that around your house or a change in elevation?

Because large areas of concrete can cause small lifting from a the heat island effect and can cause storms to lose some moisture or be pushed around the area. This is small scale stuff, but I've seen it happen before.


Don't agree as the I-4 corridor is the thunderstorm capital of the US and sometimes the world depending on who you talk to. High heat from concrete as experience in Orlando every summer leads to very dangerous lightning storms. I really think his problem is the close prox. to the green swamp as the swamp as thunderstorms form over the swamp. Also, when then stoms come in off the gulf they either go just north of Tampa or skirt tampa to the south and then move NE and Zephryhills is in the slot of limited rain. The storms event we had on 3/11/2010 was a great example of this as the heaviest storms stayed either just north or south of Tampa. Tampa still got a good bit of rain but not much as surrounding areas.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yo StormChaser81! Have you seen this video clip?

Trees and poles are my biggest concern out in the field.


I've been in one just like that, except there was baseball size hail flying around.
Quoting severstorm:

I here you on the well part. I realize it takes time to get into the well. I live next to the green swamp and when they get lots of rain that helps me out with the well.


I have years of my life stomping around the Green Swamp for SWFWMD.. a very beautiful place.
Quoting StormChaser81:


They would be drilling off VA for Natural Gases, Im pretty sure.

Natural gas and oil have similar geologic structures. Both need a deep sedimentary layer, with a (mostly) impermiable layer above it, to contain the hydrocarbons.
Aussie,
There will be compromises along the way. Convincing people of falsehood to hide reality is easier than change. Anyway, busy day ahead. Have a good one, everyone.
Quoting

Don't agree as the I-4 corridor is the thunderstorm capital of the US and sometimes the world depending on who you talk to. High heat from concrete as experience in Orlando every summer leads to very dangerous lightning storms. I really think his problem is the close prox. to the green swamp as the swamp as thunderstorms form over the swamp. Also, when then stoms come in off the gulf they either go just north of Tampa or skirt tampa to the south and then move NE and Zephryhills is in the slot of limited rain. The storms event we had on 3/11/2010 was a great example of this as the heaviest storms stayed either just north or south of Tampa. Tampa still got a good bit of rain but not much as surrounding areas.


All depends on were the concrete is located. Orlando area is were sebreezes collide and cause those thunderstorms. If he is were the sebreeze just passes over and the concrete can effect it.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Yo StormChaser81! Have you seen this video clip?

Trees and poles are my biggest concern out in the field.


Just have to watch the surroundings very closely, and basically know how tall the trees and poles are and stay 20 feet away from that or more. Plus when I storm chased we tried to stay away from roads that are lined with tall pines because they can trap you.
Quoting Chicklit:
Aussie,
There will be compromises along the way. Convincing people of falsehood to hide reality is easier than change.

They were talking about clean coal and Nuclear power, but that has all stopped and been put in the to hard basket. It was estimated the east coast of Australia would need 25 nuclear power stations. Most local councils had the 'not in my backyard' policy, which put a stop to that policy going forward. Wind farms are very few, solar farms zero. Natural Gas power stations 1. all the rest are coal fired power stations. Australia is 1 of 2 countries with uranium deposits, the other is Canada, yet we are happy to export it but not use it.
I've developed an idea for a new sensor that could be useful in the study of hurricanes and the damage they cause.

The sensor would be small and simple in design. Within a small plastic case (2" by 2",) would be a small vile that would act as a level. Also inside would be a small watch battery and a circuit board that keeps accurate time and sensor location (GPS.)

These sensors would be tacked flush to any type of tree or other upright structure.

If the tree is blown down by a hurricane (or other type of severe storm,) the level trips the circuit and the exact time of destruction is recorded.

These inexpensive sensors could be delivered to forestry businesses and services, and also provided to the public in hurricane prone areas for use on their property.

If a damaging hurricane moves through, as many sensors as possible are collected and then their data downloaded.

Using satellite, radar, and ground observation data, we would then have a clear picture of destruction patterns in a hurricane.
Quoting jeffs713:

Federal waters are from 12 miles off the coast to 200 miles off the coast, in most cases.

Also, I may be wrong, but the VA continental shelf doesn't have really good geology for oil deposits.


Florida Federal Waters

Quoting StormChaser81:


Just have to watch the surroundings very closely, and basically know how tall the trees and poles are and stay 20 feet away from that or more. Plus when I storm chased we tried to stay away from roads that are lined with tall pines because they can trap you.


Agreed. After Ivan, it took me 45 minutes to get to my Aunt's house on foot...a trip that normally takes only 5 minutes.

The tall southern pines that had fallen acted as a neighborhood lockout. Traffic did not freely pass in her neighborhood for weeks after that storm.
Proposed exploration areas:


Quoting CycloneOz:


Yo StormChaser81! Have you seen this video clip?

Trees and poles are my biggest concern out in the field.


Very extreme and did you notice the cars driving on the highway in the background. I bet they were terrified. Those winds were probably the result of a tornado forming close by maybe some RFD going on.
Quoting CycloneOz:
I've developed an idea for a new sensor that could be useful in the study of hurricanes and the damage they cause.

The sensor would be small and simple in design. Within a small plastic case (2" by 2",) would be a small vile that would act as a level. Also inside would be a small watch battery and a circuit board that keeps accurate time and sensor location (GPS.)

These sensors would be tacked flush to any type of tree or other upright structure.

If the tree is blown down by a hurricane (or other type of severe storm,) the level trips the circuit and the exact time of destruction is recorded.

These inexpensive sensors could be delivered to forestry businesses and services, and also provided to the public in hurricane prone areas for use on their property.

If a damaging hurricane moves through, as many sensors as possible are collected and then their data downloaded.

Using satellite, radar, and ground observation data, we would then have a clear picture of destruction patterns in a hurricane.


i was watching on the weather channel the storm stories episode about hurricane camille and it said a big tanker ship, 2 i think, washed ashore after losing anchors and being in the storm all night and one ships log anenometer (sure its not spelled right)broke at 200 knots wind speed. I imagine that was a wild ride...
Quoting Jeff9641:


Very extreme and did you notice the cars driving on the highway in the background. I bet they were terrified. Those winds were probably the result of a tornado forming close by maybe some RFD going on.


Yeah, I saw the cars moving down the highway in the background, too. I can imagine they were terrified!

Many years ago, my wife and I were traveling through Texas when we drove up into a large, rotating supercell. It was huge and moving right at us. There was no place to hide.

I stopped underneath an overpass and we experienced a microburst at that location. It might have been a tornado, but we were alone at that spot and I didn't get out of the car.

I remember my wife being terrified. I was more like "Wow! That was awesome!"
locally tourism is where the money at. already got a ton of cruise boats dumping poop offshore and this plan hopefully does not make it even worse
Cyclone Oz you have WU mail.
??????????? Study suggests toads can detect coming earthquakes

Hummm, the article references that there was an increase of released Radon gas prior to the quake. Considering they would be in low lying areas, would that not make them leave by virtue of the increase in toxic gas where they were? BTW, there were other articles that referenced that Swedish cows, and desert ants, did not exhibit any ability to predict earthquakes. Go figure ! I wonder how you can get some of that grant money? Still, interesting none the less :)
Quoting StormChaser81:
Cyclone Oz you have WU mail.


Great question! I say yes!
i guess everyone has to agree the weather has been pretty crazy lately? GW is a topic so politicised that even if you do kinda think its for real, you dont want to admit it if you are conservative. and thats sad. cause what if you are WRONG. just what if. wouldnt it be better to err on the side of saving the planet? but for gods sake, when are people gonna realize the planet is overpopulated and it simply is anti-mankind to have 20 children just because you can, breeding like rats.
Quoting hurricane23:
El Niño breakdown resumes


From the breakdown: Overall, Pacific Ocean temperatures remain at levels associated with an El Niño event, but are again cooling in line with expectations.

So I guess what I heard was correct. El Nino is still roaring along...(but it is beginning to cool off.)
Quoting Ossqss:
??????????? Study suggests toads can detect coming earthquakes

Hummm, the article references that there was an increase of released Radon gas prior to the quake. Considering they would be in low lying areas, would that not make them leave by virtue of the increase in toxic gas where they were? BTW, there were other articles that referenced that Swedish cows, and desert ants, did not exhibit any ability to predict earthquakes. Go figure ! I wonder how you can get some of that grant money? Still, interesting none the less :)


when the weather channel says its gonna hard freeze and i go out to blanket my horses and they see me coming with the blankets and run, i know its not really gonna be that cold. but if they see me coming and go "huhuhuhuhuh" and start walking toward me lowering the head so i can slip the blanket on i know its gonna be a real bark buster. :) how they can tell when its 70 degrees and balmy and drizzly that its gonna drop to 12 degrees before the night is done, is really interesting to me.
i saw on the news that RI is having the worst flood this century.
Quoting twhcracker:
i guess everyone has to agree the weather has been pretty crazy lately? GW is a topic so politicised that even if you do kinda think its for real, you dont want to admit it if you are conservative. and thats sad. cause what if you are WRONG. just what if. wouldnt it be better to err on the side of saving the planet? but for gods sake, when are people gonna realize the planet is overpopulated and it simply is anti-mankind to have 20 children just because you can, breeding like rats.


Crazy weather lately? We've had crazy weather pretty much forever...wouldn't you agree?

The problem with GW is that it is being used to justify tax increases in energy usage.

On top of that, I disagree that increased CO2 levels means the end of life on this planet. We're at 387 PPM right now. That's 387 parts per million...or .000387 per cent.

Water vapor is the real green house gas on Earth.
Quoting CycloneOz:


From the breakdown: Overall, Pacific Ocean temperatures remain at levels associated with an El Niño event, but are again cooling in line with expectations.

So I guess what I heard was correct. El Nino is still roaring along...(but it is beginning to cool off.)


Slow but steady weakening should continue with ENSO-neutral conditions across the atlantic basin in a few months.
Much respect to you Aussiestorm, you always write great posts but i do have to comment on one of your later ones. To say you don't believe in GW because your government is implimenting a new tax on electricity that will hurt many people in your country is nonsensical. Thats like saying that i don't believe in cancer because i hate chemotheropy. The scientists are just giving the facts as best they can, your argument should be with your politicians not the scientists or the data. And no scientific principle is 100% proven.

And as for 'its all about the money', well this would have to be one of the poorer arguments. Take a step back and ask yourself, who has the most to lose / gain and who has the most money to throw around. You will probably answer the oil industry for both those questions. They have far more to lose than a few scientists have to gain and really are we comparing the power and economic clout of a bunch of university scientists to Exxon, Shell and BP? be serious here.

Now back to ENSO and 17 storms this season.....
Quoting CycloneOz:


From the breakdown: Overall, Pacific Ocean temperatures remain at levels associated with an El Niño event, but are again cooling in line with expectations.

So I guess what I heard was correct. El Nino is still roaring along...(but it is beginning to cool off.)

"roaring along" implies that El Nino is remaining strong, and at least holding its own. It is actually fading, so I'm not sure if "roaring" is the right term. "whimpering along" or "barely hanging on" may be more appropriate.
Quoting twhcracker:


when the weather channel says its gonna hard freeze and i go out to blanket my horses and they see me coming with the blankets and run, i know its not really gonna be that cold. but if they see me coming and go "huhuhuhuhuh" and start walking toward me lowering the head so i can slip the blanket on i know its gonna be a real bark buster. :) how they can tell when its 70 degrees and balmy and drizzly that its gonna drop to 12 degrees before the night is done, is really interesting to me.


I find it fascinating how much more keen an animal's senses are when compared to our own.

Still, there seems to be a balance in nature. Humans know at an early age not to go chasing after cars, but some dogs love to do it.

Perhaps chasing after dangerous things is another trait humans and dogs share? ;)
the pawtuxett river at cranston RI is at 20.77 feet and the record flooding of all time before this was 15.0 feet.
Link
Quoting Caymansouth:
...And as for 'its all about the money', well this would have to be one of the poorer arguments. Take a step back and ask yourself, who has the most to lose / gain and who has the most money to throw around. You will probably answer the oil industry for both those questions.


Nope...wrong. The government has the most to lose or gain and they have the most money to throw around.
And as for 'its all about the money', well this would have to be one of the poorer arguments. Take a step back and ask yourself, who has the most to lose / gain and who has the most money to throw around. You will probably answer the oil industry for both those questions. They have far more to lose than a few scientists have to gain and really are we comparing the power and economic clout of a bunch of university scientists to Exxon, Shell and BP? be serious here.

excellent
Quoting CycloneOz:


Nope...wrong. The government has the most to lose or gain and they have the most money to throw around.


yiiii not our government, not now!
Quoting tornadodude:

Has the NCDC also put out a precip ranking map?
Quoting Caymansouth:
Much respect to you Aussiestorm, you always write great posts but i do have to comment on one of your later ones. To say you don't believe in GW because your government is implimenting a new tax on electricity that will hurt many people in your country is nonsensical. Thats like saying that i don't believe in cancer because i hate chemotheropy. The scientists are just giving the facts as best they can, your argument should be with your politicians not the scientists or the data. And no scientific principle is 100% proven.

And as for 'its all about the money', well this would have to be one of the poorer arguments. Take a step back and ask yourself, who has the most to lose / gain and who has the most money to throw around. You will probably answer the oil industry for both those questions. They have far more to lose than a few scientists have to gain and really are we comparing the power and economic clout of a bunch of university scientists to Exxon, Shell and BP? be serious here.

Now back to ENSO and 17 storms this season.....

Sorry um,,,,, did I actually say I didn't believe GW, NO.....
This is a tropical weather blog, not a GW or CC blog, I am sure there are blogs somewhere on the net dedicated to this topic.
As I asked before on this blog, I would like to see the good Dr. to do a blog on how Australian Cyclones seem to be able to intensify and sustain themselves when they are so close to land.
with all due respect...I'm not at all sure this is presented as an exclusively tropical weather blog...it's Jeff Masters blog...he can post his dead grandma's cake recipeits if he likes...
Quoting CycloneOz:


Nope...wrong. The government has the most to lose or gain and they have the most money to throw around.

I agree with you. before the Copenhagen conference it was the "it" issue to talk about by the Govt. Since nothing came out of the conference its has become a background issue unless an issue comes out about electricity prices going to rise by 60% over the next 3 years to cover the cost of "greening" the industry.
Quoting presslord:
And as for 'its all about the money', well this would have to be one of the poorer arguments. Take a step back and ask yourself, who has the most to lose / gain and who has the most money to throw around. You will probably answer the oil industry for both those questions. They have far more to lose than a few scientists have to gain and really are we comparing the power and economic clout of a bunch of university scientists to Exxon, Shell and BP? be serious here.

excellent


You're welcome Press for the fine Lowcountry weather !!
Quoting Chucktown:


You're welcome Press for the fine Lowcountry weather !!




Thank you!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Outstanding job!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Quoting jeffs713:

Has the NCDC also put out a precip ranking map?


Brad....I'm conjuring up a reason to go downtown this afternoon to check out the scenery at Marion Square...Wanna come along?
718. P451
West Coast going to get pounded in the coming days.



719. P451
Quoting AussieStorm:

I noticed there is a system off the NW CONUS. Could it be the deep low that caused the severe sand/dust storm in China?


Not sure if that's the one. Haven't been following along. It could be.

China is experiencing what the US did in the 30s. The dust bowl. A lot of their trouble is related to how man is using the land and not as much related to the weather as you'd think.

Quoting presslord:
Brad....I'm conjuring up a reason to go downtown this afternoon to check out the scenery at Marion Square...Wanna come along?


Wish I could. Today is my Monday, but enjoy the downtown "scenery". I'm sure it will be bodacious !! Juanita Greenburgs and a margarita sounds just right !!



Hurricane storm surge risk report points to south Florida damage potential
By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
March 29, 2010, 8:45PM



Five years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the New Orleans region, it may come as a surprise that the metropolitan area with the most to lose from storm surges caused by a catastrophic hurricane is the mega-urban south Florida complex of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

A new study of the potential effects of hurricanes on homes in 13 Atlantic and Gulf coast communities found that the storm surge associated with a Category 5 hurricane could damage more than 250,000 homes in southeast Florida at a cost of $53.6 billion, compared with $39.5 billion in residential damage for Virginia Beach, Va., and $33 billion for Tampa, Fla.

The study, released Monday by First American Corp., a company that provides risk information to insurance companies, ranks New Orleans sixth among at-risk coastal communities.

Compared with the Miami area, the study estimates that about 91,000 homes in metro New Orleans could suffer an estimated $17.5 billion in damage if hit by a Category 5 storm. But the study also warns that the assumptions it uses about the region's recovery in the aftermath of Katrina could have skewed those results.

Hurricane Katrina is estimated to have caused more than $80 billion in residential and other damages in the U.S., including Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and south Florida. The vast majority of that damage was the result of storm surges.


"Faced with potential staggering costs and the prospect of continuing global climate changes, insurers began abandoning coastal markets -- or have created artificial coastal buffers -- in an attempt to exclude properties vulnerable to storm surge," the First American study said. "The difficulty for insurers is that storm surge cannot be neatly contained by buffers, as some properties within the buffers may have less risk and are insurable."

Despite the continued focus on the potential for another catastrophic hurricane to hit New Orleans, the study concludes it should come as no surprise that south Florida is most at risk.
Quoting P451:


Not sure if that's the one. Haven't been following along. It could be.

China is experiencing what the US did in the 30s. The dust bowl. A lot of their trouble is related to how man is using the land and not as much related to the weather as you'd think.


timing sounds about right. Noticed it a few days ago on the JMA weather maps
Cyclone Oz. i don't want to teach grandma to suck eggs here but i think you have an over inflated idea of what government is. Your government and most governements for that matter will be out of power in 4 years times so they have very limited long term vested interest in GW. The government is made up of individual people who work for a salary and then retire, they have limited free range to do anything over the longer term becuase they have to hand power over to a whole new set of poeple every few years.

Large multinational corporations on the other hand are run and controlled by shareholders who do have the luxury of long term vision. Many of them will retain voting rights in a company for decades and generations and absolutely do have long term incentive to manipulate and control the flow of information in their favour. For the most part multi national companies have far more long term vision than any government can because they don't have a popularity contest every 4 years to decide who should be in control.

And with a fear of becoming too conspiratorial here, lets be honest, large companies have a pretty decent 'say' in how the country is run, be it through lobbying, tax receipts or 'other' means, they have great influence over the government. What they want, they tend to get. And i can assure you 'they' do not want to see new legislation put in to place that would harm their bottom line.

I found that there is a CC blog, on this very site, last entry.....
The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy

Posted by: JeffMasters, 3:07 PM GMT on November 25, 2009.

and
Bumps and Wiggles (1): Predictions and Projections

Posted by: RickyRood, 4:01 AM GMT on March 23, 2010

Maybe Dr. Jeff Masters noticed not much action on his CC blog and decided to integrate it into the Tropical blog
Quoting Caymansouth:
Cyclone Oz. i don't want to teach grandma to suck eggs here but i think you have an over inflated idea of what government is. Your government and most governements for that matter will be out of power in 4 years times so they have very limited long term vested interest in GW. The government is made up of individual people who work for a salary and then retire, they have limited free range to do anything over the longer term becuase they have to hand power over to a whole new set of poeple every few years.

Large multinational corporations on the other hand are run and controlled by shareholders who do have the luxury of long term vision. Many of them will retain voting rights in a company for decades and generations and absolutely do have long term incentive to manipulate and control the flow of information in their favour. For the most part multi national companies have far more long term vision than any government can because they don't have a popularity contest every 4 years to decide who should be in control.

And with a fear of becoming too conspiratorial here, lets be honest, large companies have a pretty decent 'say' in how the country is run, be it through lobbying, tax receipts or 'other' means, they have great influence over the government. What they want, they tend to get. And i can assure you 'they' do not want to see new legislation put in to place that would harm their bottom line.

I have to agree with you 100% especially with the "Premier" we are having to put up with right now.
I can assure my Australian friend that Jeff Masters is never interested in the number of post here.

He could care less if theres one,or 100,000.


If one dosent care for the entry here..why not start ones own entry to expound more efficiently,ones expert views on the subject matter.

Caymansouth:



We have had the same stupid State Govt in power for the last 12 years, due to a seriously poor rating opposition. The Federal Govt before the current was in power for 12 years till booted out, and that was only just but a few seats.
A weak opposition means a weak govt. Which then hurts the population at large.
Quoting Caymansouth:
And with a fear of becoming too conspiratorial here, lets be honest, large companies have a pretty decent 'say' in how the country is run, be it through lobbying, tax receipts or 'other' means, they have great influence over the government. What they want, they tend to get. And i can assure you 'they' do not want to see new legislation put in to place that would harm their bottom line.



Right....

Tell that to GM, Chrysler, and a host of other corporations. And tell me this...where is the OUTRAGE that GE has purchased oil lease rights? No outrage at all, because they're in bed with our current administration lovin' it up...that's why.

From health care, to GW, to immigration...what I'm seeing in America these days is freaking me out. I don't want to live in a socialist / communist country. If I did, I'd move to Russia or Europe.

I like America as it once was. Limited federal government and market-driven capitalism.

This other stuff going on has to stop, and soon.
Quoting Patrap:
I can assure my Australian friend that Jeff Masters is never interested in the number of post here.

He could care less if theres one,or 100,000.


If one dosent care for the entry here..why not start ones own entry to expound more efficiently,ones expert views on the subject matter.


I am looking for expert comments and blog topics.
I am not an expert I am a mere amateur like 99% of people here.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Right....

Tell that to GM, Chrysler, and a host of other corporations. And tell me this...where is the OUTRAGE that GE has purchased oil lease rights? No outrage at all, because they're in bed with our current administration lovin' it up...that's why.

From health care, to GW, to immigration...what I'm seeing in America these days is freaking me out. I don't want to live in a socialist / communist country. If I did, I'd move to Russia or Europe.

I like America as it once was. Limited federal government and market-driven capitalism.

This other stuff going on has to stop, and soon.


Quoting presslord:
I like America as it once was. Limited federal government and market-driven capitalism

yea...like during the Great Depression...blacks at the back of the bus...women barefoot, pregnant, in the kitchen...it was awesome...

Isn't that called racism and inequality?
Quoting presslord:
I like America as it once was. Limited federal government and market-driven capitalism

yea...like during the Great Depression...blacks at the back of the bus...women barefoot, pregnant, in the kitchen...it was awesome...


You can always find a fault in any time period, Is it better to say I liked America 10 years ago.
Tough crowd for a Weds,,LOL
Quoting AussieStorm:

Isn't that called racism and inequality?


...as well as 'market driven capitalism'...it was great...can't wait to go back to that...
Correction, Friday is April 2, 2010, thanks Patrap! TX watch out for Friday:
Good morning all.
Quoting presslord:
I like America as it once was. Limited federal government and market-driven capitalism

yea...like during the Great Depression...blacks at the back of the bus...women barefoot, pregnant, in the kitchen...it was awesome...


I like this post alot!

It was the democrats who were all about segregation! LOL!!! Remember old George Wallace standing in front of UA to stop a black girl from entering the college? HE WAS A DEM!

What happened was this. Once the DEMS realized they were on the loosing end of segregation, they switched gears, becoming the "new carpetbaggers" and re-enslaving minorities by having them rely on the fed for what they needed. (REMEMBER WELFARE - LATE 60s?" And in doing so, they increased their socialist power base by catering to people WHO DO NOT CONTRIBUTE TO THE TAX BASE...for whatever reason! (I like the word "laziness" here."
Climate science must be more open, say MPs

The Commons Science and Technology Committee criticised UEA authorities for failing to respond to requests for data from climate change sceptics.

But it found no evidence Professor Phil Jones, whose e-mails were hacked and published online, had manipulated data.

It said his reputation, and that of his climate research unit, remained intact.

[snip]

The committee was satisfied that, with regard to the sharing of data and methodologies, "Professor Jones's actions were in line with common practice in the climate science community".

"It is not standard practice in climate science to publish the raw data and the computer code in academic papers," its report said.

But the committee added that this practice could be "problematic".

"We consider that climate scientists should take steps to make available all the data that support their work, including raw data... and full methodological workings, including the computer codes."

Mr Willis said he hoped that science would emerge stronger from the controversy.

[snip]

It pointed to controversial phrases used in the published e-mail correspondence, including the terms "trick" and "hide the decline".

The report stated: "We are content that the phrases were colloquial terms used in private e-mails and the balance of evidence is that they were not part of a systematic attempt to mislead.

[snip]

"We have found no reason in this unfortunate episode to challenge the scientific consensus that global warming is happening and is induced by human activity."

Credibility call

UEA vice-chancellor Edward Acton said he was "delighted" by this conclusion.

"We are pleased too that [this report] has dispelled and rejected many of the myths over the matter, while accepting that we have been taken to task on a number of issues which we are determined to address."

The rebuttal;

Climate sceptics on the sceptic website Bishop Hill ridiculed the MPs' findings. One asked: "Is it April fools already?" Another commented: "No-one with half [a] brain cell will view this conclusion as anything other than a hasty and not very subtle establishment cover-up."

My comment;
Why is it whenever a study is released that the skeptics don't like it is always a conspiracy and or a coverup??



.."Were so Sorry,Uncle Albert,but we havent done a Bloody thing all day"
please let the record clearly show who did...and did not...make this partisan...
Hi Levi. I think you should call into the radio show on Thursday and talk to Dr. Masters. You would have an interesting discussion that we could all listen to!
PressLord says I'm tilting at windmills...are you referring to the 'masters of the universe?'
Oil rigs on the East Coast?

..in Se. La..were chuckling all the way to the Wetlands..

Snicker,snort,..ackkk!!
I see the Australians are also seeing the resume of El Nino's decay.

The sub-surface water of the tropical Pacific continues to cool.

740 +
Quoting presslord:
please let the record clearly show who did...and did not...make this partisan...


"U betcha"...
Experts on here???You got to be kidding!!!If ultra man and the others are experts we our in trouble!Of course ALGORE is a expert,he said the center of the earth is a million degrees hot!!
Quoting presslord:
please let the record clearly show who did...and did not...make this partisan...


Hey, you're the one who brought up segregation. All I did was mention which party supported it...with guns, batons, water-hoses, and a governor who stood in front of a college.
Quoting CycloneOz:


Hey, you're the one who brought up segregation. All I did was mention which party supported it...with guns, batons, water-hoses, and a governor who stood in front of a college.


And which Party passed the Civil Rights Legislation?

Progressives always move America Forward..

LOL..

One may want to include the history of the Time in the discussion.
Helmet not required,thats for the Chase and the Dog.
Quoting Chicklit:
Hi Levi. I think you should call into the radio show on Thursday and talk to Dr. Masters. You would have an interesting discussion that we could all listen to!
PressLord says I'm tilting at windmills...are you referring to the 'masters of the universe?'


Well I don't know about that I don't think the doctor likes me very much lol. Besides I'm pretty sick at the moment.

And honestly, I really would lose any "discussion" with him on AGW....he's a PhD with too many resources and knowledge on the subject. He'd just throw all his pre-written answers at me lol. I'm just a guy applying common sense to these things based on my knowledge of Meteorology. I can't cite papers all day long like he does.
From Accuweather.com

Surging warmth and an approaching cold front will trigger a severe weather outbreak during the first part of the Easter weekend over the middle of the nation.
Southerly winds are beginning to pump in warm air over the Plains during the middle of the week.



While the warmth will expand to the East this weekend and will bring relief to storm and flood-weary people along the Atlantic Seaboard, a storm system from the Pacific will crash into the warmth and building moisture over the Plains and the Mississippi Valley, spanning violent thunderstorms.

Tall thunderstorms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts and large hail, may fire late Thursday and Thursday night over portions of western Kansas, the Oklahoma Panhandle and the northern Texas Panhandle.

The storms may only be a mere tease as to what can occur farther east over the central and southern Plains Friday and Friday night. The risk of flash flooding and even a few tornadoes may be spawned in the strongest storms. Many of the storms will bring powerful wind gusts and hail capable of causing significant property damage.

Cities projected to be in the path of these storms Friday/Friday Night include Tulsa, Kansas City, Little Rock, Shreveport and St. Louis.
tough blog today,

gw, cc, politics, etc :P

if we're lucky we might get an occasional weather post!

See # 728,obligatory Post of the GOM SST's,and a LINK
By the way....AMSR-E measuring an increase in arctic sea ice extent when it's supposed to be decreasing this time of year! We're headed for a 9-year high lol.

Quoting tornadodude:
tough blog today,

gw, cc, politics, etc :P

if we're lucky we might get an occasional weather post!


Yeah! I am hoping so!
Quoting help4u:
Experts on here???You got to be kidding!!!If ultra man and the others are experts we our in trouble!Of course ALGORE is a expert,he said the center of the earth is a million degrees hot!!

Oh don't go there on the Al Gore subject. I wouldn't want to upset anyone like I did before.
99% of us are amateurs weather watchers. That is why I would like an expert to tell me why the topic I brought up happens.
Quoting Patrap:



Hurricane storm surge risk report points to south Florida damage potential
By Mark Schleifstein, The Times-Picayune
March 29, 2010, 8:45PM


Five years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the New Orleans region, it may come as a surprise that the metropolitan area with the most to lose from storm surges caused by a catastrophic hurricane is the mega-urban south Florida complex of Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties.

A new study of the potential effects of hurricanes on homes in 13 Atlantic and Gulf coast communities found that the storm surge associated with a Category 5 hurricane could damage more than 250,000 homes in southeast Florida at a cost of $53.6 billion, compared with $39.5 billion in residential damage for Virginia Beach, Va., and $33 billion for Tampa, Fla.

The study, released Monday by First American Corp., a company that provides risk information to insurance companies, ranks New Orleans sixth among at-risk coastal communities.

Compared with the Miami area, the study estimates that about 91,000 homes in metro New Orleans could suffer an estimated $17.5 billion in damage if hit by a Category 5 storm. But the study also warns that the assumptions it uses about the region's recovery in the aftermath of Katrina could have skewed those results.

Hurricane Katrina is estimated to have caused more than $80 billion in residential and other damages in the U.S., including Louisiana, Mississippi, Alabama and south Florida. The vast majority of that damage was the result of storm surges.


"Faced with potential staggering costs and the prospect of continuing global climate changes, insurers began abandoning coastal markets -- or have created artificial coastal buffers -- in an attempt to exclude properties vulnerable to storm surge," the First American study said. "The difficulty for insurers is that storm surge cannot be neatly contained by buffers, as some properties within the buffers may have less risk and are insurable."

Despite the continued focus on the potential for another catastrophic hurricane to hit New Orleans, the study concludes it should come as no surprise that south Florida is most at risk.

The asterisk for NOLA is a kinda important one... "New Orleans data not updated for 100-year hurricane protection system improvements"
Quoting jeffs713:

The asterisk for NOLA is a kinda important one... "New Orleans data not updated for 100-year hurricane protection system improvements"


See Corps of Engineers site,for a detailed entry on the matter.

Or,just call me..
I rely on Dr. Master's blog, but only from June through November.

From December to May, his blog is interesting, but I do not rely on it.
Quoting Patrap:


See Corps of Engineers site,for a detailed entry on the matter.

Or,just call me..

hehe, no worries, Pat. I've become very edumacated about NOLA's protection, since my fiancee (soon to be wife) is from Arabi.
Quoting HurricaneHunterGal:

Yeah! I am hoping so!


if only hope was enough :p
Still warm across the MDR with +2-3C Anomalies near the Cape Verde Islands.

Quoting jeffs713:

hehe, no worries, Pat. I've become very edumacated about NOLA's protection, since my fiancee (soon to be wife) is from Arabi.


Congrats on the engagement jeff

Arabi eh?




They went under big time ...but the MRGO is closed so thats a Huge help for them.





Galveston TX already over 2+inches below normal. Been dry here this March, if we don't get some good rains this Friday, I'm going to start having deja vu of drought starting all over again just like last year. Where's the rain?! it's still El Nino
tell me bout it Tdude... but one cool thing has come out of it. check out the Thumbs-up Fractal!
AWESOME! some rare gratitude to SC81 ;)
Re: 755 LOL!
Pat you stretched the blog
Quoting Patrap:


Congrats on the engagement jeff

Arabi eh?

They went under big time ...but the MRGO is closed so thats a Huge help for them.






Yep. When she and I went there (for me to meet her family in NOLA), she took me on a tour of sorts of the neighborhood she grew up in. (it is off Judge Perez, to the north of the road, near a park and such...) You can still see the damage from the storm - some houses still have the markings from the search teams that were looking for bodies, and some high-water marks can still be seen here and there, too.

After Katrina, she never wants to move back to LA, but she loves to visit, if only for the memories.

Also, thank you for the congrats on the engagement!
If ya really want to know what has driven the administration towards permitting the exploration and drilling. Search the net for what China and Russia are doing in the Western hemisphere waters. Yup, they are already there, some just out of sight of Key West. We are seeing a reaction not the inverse/

Just one article of many here.
Time to replace your IE with FF 3.6 and never have a stretched blog again.


Tropical Blogging with IE is like driving with a ,well, Blinders on.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Galveston TX already over 2+inches below normal. Been dry here this March, if we don't get some good rains this Friday, I'm going to start having deja vu of drought starting all over again just like last year. Where's the rain?! it's still El Nino


Nature has a way of busting droughts in that part of the country from June - November. A good low energy, moderate forward speed tropical storm is what you folks need, but any chance of that is still over 60 days away.
Quoting jeffs713:

Yep. When she and I went there (for me to meet her family in NOLA), she took me on a tour of sorts of the neighborhood she grew up in. (it is off Judge Perez, to the north of the road, near a park and such...) You can still see the damage from the storm - some houses still have the markings from the search teams that were looking for bodies, and some high-water marks can still be seen here and there, too.

After Katrina, she never wants to move back to LA, but she loves to visit, if only for the memories.



Arabi took it on the chin,and I was there just last week for a tour with some ,well the New Mayor Elect group.
Quoting Minnemike:
tell me bout it Tdude... but one cool thing has come out of it. check out the Thumbs-up Fractal!
AWESOME! some rare gratitude to SC81 ;)


Thanx, I guess...
Quoting Minnemike:
tell me bout it Tdude... but one cool thing has come out of it. check out the Thumbs-up Fractal!
AWESOME! some rare gratitude to SC81 ;)


haha yeah that was a neat image!
Quoting RitaEvac:
Galveston TX already over 2+inches below normal. Been dry here this March, if we don't get some good rains this Friday, I'm going to start having deja vu of drought starting all over again just like last year. Where's the rain?! it's still El Nino


It's been in Florida. Over 10" at my place this month but no big rains until mid April here.
Quoting AussieStorm:

We have had the same stupid State Govt in power for the last 12 years, due to a seriously poor rating opposition. The Federal Govt before the current was in power for 12 years till booted out, and that was only just but a few seats.
A weak opposition means a weak govt. Which then hurts the population at large.


i agree with you totally because here in fla we have Crist with not much viable opposition to the republican party and local governments in fla are so broke we cant pay attention. i work for government. three years ago there were 78 people in my department. today we are producing the same service and there are 14 of us. and omg you should hear the griping because we take longer to do it than when there were 78 people... nobody wants to pay taxes but they all want government services! and right now! and if we have any huge hurricanes this year omg, forget it. we will never recover with the pitiful manpower we have now.
Positive IOD.

Quoting Patrap:
Time to replace your IE with FF 3.6 and never have a stretched blog again.


Tropical Blogging with IE is like driving with a ,well, Blinders on.

If I could, I would. but I'm stuck with IE6 until my company's IT team decides to upgrade my computer to IE8.
The ensemble mean,continues to creep up.
I've raked piles and piles of dead augustine grass this year like never before. This is the first time I've ever seen so much dead grass from this unusual cold winter. Were down to the bare ground with only a few runners left in some spots. Anybody else on the gulf coast have the same thing?
TRMM Satellite pass of Paul from earlier this morning, which is about 8 hours old now. He's still producing a lot of rain over the Northern Territory.

Quoting jeffs713:

Yep. When she and I went there (for me to meet her family in NOLA), she took me on a tour of sorts of the neighborhood she grew up in. (it is off Judge Perez, to the north of the road, near a park and such...) You can still see the damage from the storm - some houses still have the markings from the search teams that were looking for bodies, and some high-water marks can still be seen here and there, too.

After Katrina, she never wants to move back to LA, but she loves to visit, if only for the memories.


Same with me regarding South Florida.

In 1992, I was in my early 30s and had chased a few hurricanes.

For some reason, I felt I had to leave South Florida and told my boss my last day at work would be 7/31/92.

On 8/24/92, Andrew destroyed Homestead and alot of other areas, but my family and I were safely in New Mexico.

Three weeks...that's not much time when I spent years living and working in South Florida. But having left when I did, I probably saved my life, as I am sure I would've chased Andrew right into Homestead, with only a car and a video camera and absolutely no way to protect myself in the eyewall of a Cat V.

So yeah, I like visiting South Florida alot, but I'd never live there again just because of the threat of another Cat V like Andrew.

Got to go twice last year. Once when I was on my way to Bermuda to intercept Bill, and once with my daughter to see the Dolphins / Patriots game that the Finz won! :)
Hi guys what's up
Goodnight all. Stay safe if there is any bad weather around today.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I've raked piles and piles of dead augustine grass this year like never before. This is the first time I've ever seen so much dead grass from this unusual cold winter. Were down to the bare ground with only a few runners left in some spots. Anybody else on the gulf coast have the same thing?


Its about the same over here in New Orleans. All the Augustine Grass is dead. I hope it comes back, and of course the weeds made it through the winter without a problem.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Its about the same over here in New Orleans. All the Augustine Grass is dead. I hope it comes back, and of course the weeds made it through the winter without a problem.


Heat will start to kill of the weeds, once the temp in the sun gets into the 90s their toast
Quoting RitaEvac:
I've raked piles and piles of dead augustine grass this year like never before. This is the first time I've ever seen so much dead grass from this unusual cold winter. Were down to the bare ground with only a few runners left in some spots. Anybody else on the gulf coast have the same thing?


Up here in New Mexico, even though it's been cold like nobody's business, we've had alot of snow, too.

My lawn is absolutely beautiful today. It's the best it's ever looked, and I've been here for about 10 years now.
Quoting RitaEvac:
I've raked piles and piles of dead augustine grass this year like never before. This is the first time I've ever seen so much dead grass from this unusual cold winter. Were down to the bare ground with only a few runners left in some spots. Anybody else on the gulf coast have the same thing?

Most of my subdivision is Bermudagrass, so we haven't had as bad of a dieback issue. (I'm lucky since mine is all fresh sod put down right after the hardest freeze here)

I have seen quite a few St. Augustine lawns that got hit hard, though. Mostly those that are more open, and without trees to protect them.
Quoting SevereHurricane:


Its about the same over here in New Orleans. All the Augustine Grass is dead. I hope it comes back, and of course the weeds made it through the winter without a problem.


Lotsa grass in Audubon Park,,..was there yesterday.
Pics in my entry
Quoting RitaEvac:


Heat will start to kill of the weeds, once the temp in the sun gets into the 90s their toast


They'll be toast this weekend. Round-Up is on sale at Home Depot so I'm going to buy a bottle or two and spray the whole yard.
Quoting Patrap:
Time to replace your IE with FF 3.6 and never have a stretched blog again.


Tropical Blogging with IE is like driving with a ,well, Blinders on.


Hey Patrap,
How do I do that???? Change my IE to FF 3.6 so that way I want stretch the "Blog"....

Taco :0)
Quoting RitaEvac:


Heat will start to kill of the weeds, once the temp in the sun gets into the 90s their toast


Apparently you havent been to NOLA for the WEEDs season..

Bloodweed,can grow to 20 feet in 4-5 weeks here easily.

Lawn Maintenance here is a 6-7million dollar industry.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Heat will start to kill of the weeds, once the temp in the sun gets into the 90s their toast

So will homeowners walking around with weed killer. hehe
Subsurface cold anomalies spreading eastward:

Just Google FF 3.6 ,download and install.

The site developers design 99% of the site here for FF
Quoting SevereHurricane:


They'll be toast this weekend. Round-Up is on sale at Home Depot so I'm going to buy a bottle or two and spray the whole yard.


lol yea and the warm weather will speed up the killing process
sorry Patrap I'm on the office computer and of course its in his name ....LOL

But this is Taco :0)
Thats a tough one to reconfigure then,,but hey...

Be like the Cheeto's Guy and do it anyway.

LOL
Quoting Drakoen:
Subsurface cold anomalies spreading eastward:



Yep... Just more evidence that El Nino is continuing to decay.
Quoting Patrap:


Apparently you havent been to NOLA for the WEEDs season..

Bloodweed,can grow to 20 feet in 4-5 weeks here easily.

Lawn Maintenance here is a 6-7million dollar industry.


I'll have to google that weed
Quoting Patrap:
Thats a tough one to reconfigure then,,but hey...

Be like the Cheeto's Guy and do it anyway.

LOL


LMBO :0) Thanks my Friend I will wait untill I get home and do it to my Computer.... Doing that here would be like asking Obama for some land in the FL Swamp....

Taco :0)
Not seeing the big dramatic wind shift yet..
Quoting RitaEvac:


lol yea and the warm weather will speed up the killing process


Ohh you know it! Hopefully this upcoming warm weather doesn't kill the Azalea's too quickly. They just bloomed on Sunday. lol
Invest 94S in the Indian Ocean is a little bit more organized than yesterday.

Even some of the certain palm tree leaves took a hit. Weird seeing some of those palm trees with browning leaves
Quoting Skyepony:
Not seeing the big dramatic wind shift yet..


The westerlies are mostly gone...easterly anomalies have developed over the central Pacific since March 15th. The Kelvin Waves only held El Nino up for a couple weeks.

Microsoft wants feedback on my Grant request for Hurricane Education,so any wu mails on the matters we discuss here would maybe help in that regard.

Feel free to write one up and send it to me in the Wu-Mail.

Or not.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Even some of the certain palm tree leaves took a hit. Weird seeing some of those palm trees with browning leaves

Palms got hit HARD here in the Houston area.

Sago palms and Texas Sabal palms handled things fine. Lots of people put up Palmetto palms and Queen palms, and those got rocked in a bad way. LOTS of dead trees.
Got a nice negative PDO signature developing in both the north and south Pacific. You can see how weak the central-Pacific warm pool is now, with no anomalies significantly above 1C. In fact, the warmest water is now in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which makes sense since the last of the hot sub-surface water is confined to the east now.

Also notice that the Atlantic has the warmest tropical breeding ground relative to normal in the world right now.

Quoting Levi32:
Got a nice negative PDO signature developing in both the north and south Pacific. You can see how weak the central-Pacific warm pool is now, with no anomalies significantly above 1C. In fact, the warmest water is now in the eastern equatorial Pacific, which makes sense since the last of the hot sub-surface water is confined to the east now.

Also notice that the Atlantic has the warmest tropical breeding ground relative to normal in the world right now.


I find it interesting that you can still see the cold spot where Ului parked itself for a few days.
Quoting Patrap:


And which Party passed the Civil Rights Legislation?

Progressives always move America Forward..

LOL..

One may want to include the history of the Time in the discussion.
Helmet not required,thats for the Chase and the Dog.


Forwards towards what? Socialism? I'll pass.
The climate models show the dive in the Sea-Surface temperature anomalies taking place in April and May. The CFS shows the dramatic cooling of the subsurface by May.



Quoting jeffs713:

I find it interesting that you can still see the cold spot where Ului parked itself for a few days.


Yeah, it got really really cold as Ului passed by. This image shows just how cold it really got. The black areas to the south of or near the cold water patch are clouds from Ului that are too think for even the TMI sensor to get through. The first image shows Ului while she was still a major hurricane. The 2nd image was a day later, after she had really destroyed herself with upwelled cold water.



Look back at Dec 2009.. Winds showed some shifting recently, but looks a little varied still. It wouldn't surprise me to see El Nino last through sometime in May, though could die sooner. May even see a little strengthening as this latest warm pool surfaces, possible drifts west in the wavering winds before the demise.

Showing RI on the news..devastating flooding..
Quoting Skyepony:
Look back at Dec 2009.. Winds showed some shifting recently, but looks a little varied still. It wouldn't surprise me to see El Nino last through sometime in May, though could die sooner. May even see a little strengthening as this latest warm pool surfaces, possible drifts west in the wavering winds before the demise.

Showing RI on the news..devastating flooding..


Well yeah that's when it started coming off its peak. Right now there is nothing left to keep this thing going, so I don't really expect another comeback.

The OLR is also just about the most positive it's been in the central equatorial Pacific since November 2009.

Degree Heating Weeks (DHWs) indicate the accumulation of thermal stress that coral reefs have experienced over the past 12 weeks. One DHW is equivalent to one week of sea surface temperatures one degree Celsius greater than the expected summertime maximum. Two DHWs are equivalent to two weeks at one degree above the expected summertime maximum OR one week of two degrees above the expected summertime maximum.







Also called Coral Reef Degree Heating Weeks.
Tropical Cyclone Formation Probability Guidance Product

Developed by the
Regional and Mesoscale Meteorology Branch at CIRA



nsidc:





Dmi:



hmm... which one should i trust?
RE: 815

Hmmmm...I didnt know Civil Rights was socialism. Equality...lets see...wasnt there something about that in the Constitution? Declaration of Independence? Well, it was one of those pesky old documents anyway.

I think most people who like to throw out "socialism" have no idea what the word really means. They just like to say it cause Fox and Rush and Hannity tell them to.
# 824

.."Use the Force,Luke"..
Quoting lickitysplit:
RE: 815

Hmmmm...I didnt know Civil Rights was socialism. Equality...lets see...wasnt there something about that in the Constitution? Declaration of Independence? Well, it was one of those pesky old documents anyway.

I think most people who like to throw out "socialism" have no idea what the word really means. They just like to say it cause Fox and Rush and Hannity tell them to.


"U betcha"..
Negative NAO has done the Arctic Sea Ice extent a world of good this winter.
Quoting CycloneUK:
nsidc:





Dmi:



hmm... which one should i trust?


They aren't different. The first one shows the sea ice extent relative to the 1979-2000 average. The 2nd one simply shows the sea ice extents for the past 5 years in a row, and this year is higher than the last 5. This one shows the last 9 years, and we're quickly approaching a 9-year high there, with only 2003 still ahead.

Quoting Levi32:


They aren't different. The first one shows the sea ice extent relative to the 1979-2000 average. The 2nd one simply shows the sea ice extents for the past 5 years in a row, and this year is higher than the last 5. This one shows the last 9 years, and we're quickly approaching a 10-year high there, with only 2003 still ahead.


Maths fail. 2010-2002 = 8
Quoting CycloneUK:


Maths fail. 2010-2002 = 8


lol

2002, 2003, 2004, 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009, 2010 = 9
Quoting CycloneUK:


Maths fail. 2010-2002 = 8


2010 is the 9th year....and I meant 9-year high.
Sea ice along my state coastline is running well above normal.



Tornadodude and Levi32 are correct. This is the 9th year.
Quoting Patrap:


And which Party passed the Civil Rights Legislation?


Well let's see!

Here is the answer to your question:

House of Representatives:
Democrats for: 152
Democrats against: 96
Republicans for: 138
Republicans against: 34

63% of Democrats in the house voted against
25% of Republicans in the house voted against


Senate:
Democrats for: 46
Democrats against: 21
Republicans for: 27
Republicans against: 6

46% of Democrats in the senate voted against.
22% of Republicans in the senate voted against.

YOUR ANSWER: THE REPUBLICANS PASSED THE CIVIL RIGHTS LEGISLATION! If the Dems had the super majority they have today in both houses, with these ratios, the civil rights bill would have failed.

Listen man, take you own advice about stepping into time without a hat. Dems were all about segregation. And when it was time to pony up and finally realize that all men were equal and had equal rights under the law, the Dems passed the Welfare Act, literally taking these poor people who had been oppressed for centuries by Dems, and removing whatever motivation they would have to achieve the American dream. They suck on the teet...and Dems remind them that its Dems they have to thank for that teet. Stay lazy. Pop as many kids as you want...the government will take care of you now.

Geez...
New blog.
This new study is interesting.. seems to hint a lack of DMS would reduce clouds.

Ecosystems Under Threat from Ocean Acidification

ScienceDaily (Mar. 31, 2010) %u2014 Acidification of the oceans as a result of increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide could have significant effects on marine ecosystems, according to Michael Maguire presenting at the Society for General Microbiology's spring meeting in Edinburgh.

Postgraduate researcher Mr Maguire, together with colleagues at Newcastle University, performed experiments in which they simulated ocean acidification as predicted by current trends of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The group found that the decrease in ocean pH (increased acidity) resulted in a sharp decline of a biogeochemically important group of bacteria known as the Marine Roseobacter clade. "This is the first time that a highly important bacterial group has been observed to decline in significant numbers with only a modest decrease in pH," said Mr Maguire.

The Marine Roseobacter clade is responsible for breaking down a sulphur compound called dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) that is produced by photosynthesising plankton. This end product is taken up and used by numerous bacteria as an important source of sulphur. A fraction of DMSP is turned into Dimethylsulfide (DMS) -- a naturally occurring gas that influences the Earth's climate. DMS encourages the formation of clouds which reflect solar radiation back into space leading to a cooling of the earth's surface.

Mr Maguire's group hypothesizes that the decline of the Marine Roseobacter clade through ocean acidification may alter the release of DMS into the atmosphere and affect the amount of available sulphur. He believes this will have a significant impact on the ocean's productivity and the overall global climate system. "Ocean acidification will not only have large scale consequences for marine ecosystems but also socio-economical consequences due to changes in fish stocks and erosion of coral reefs," he explained.
Quoting Skyepony:
This new study is interesting.. seems to hint a lack of DMS would reduce clouds.

Ecosystems Under Threat from Ocean Acidification

ScienceDaily (Mar. 31, 2010) %u2014 Acidification of the oceans as a result of increasing levels of atmospheric carbon dioxide could have significant effects on marine ecosystems, according to Michael Maguire presenting at the Society for General Microbiology's spring meeting in Edinburgh.

Postgraduate researcher Mr Maguire, together with colleagues at Newcastle University, performed experiments in which they simulated ocean acidification as predicted by current trends of carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The group found that the decrease in ocean pH (increased acidity) resulted in a sharp decline of a biogeochemically important group of bacteria known as the Marine Roseobacter clade. "This is the first time that a highly important bacterial group has been observed to decline in significant numbers with only a modest decrease in pH," said Mr Maguire.

The Marine Roseobacter clade is responsible for breaking down a sulphur compound called dimethylsulfoniopropionate (DMSP) that is produced by photosynthesising plankton. This end product is taken up and used by numerous bacteria as an important source of sulphur. A fraction of DMSP is turned into Dimethylsulfide (DMS) -- a naturally occurring gas that influences the Earth's climate. DMS encourages the formation of clouds which reflect solar radiation back into space leading to a cooling of the earth's surface.

Mr Maguire's group hypothesizes that the decline of the Marine Roseobacter clade through ocean acidification may alter the release of DMS into the atmosphere and affect the amount of available sulphur. He believes this will have a significant impact on the ocean's productivity and the overall global climate system. "Ocean acidification will not only have large scale consequences for marine ecosystems but also socio-economical consequences due to changes in fish stocks and erosion of coral reefs," he explained.


Again...CO2 is the causation?

I'd like to see the proof of that.
This really shows you why we shouldn't allow the Government to start drilling the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.

Blue Dots = Oil Platforms
Orange lines = Pipelines
Green = Land
Yellow polygon = FL Federal Waters



Most the pipelines you see are old and leak oil.

Surprised the whole Gulf isn't one big oil slick.
Quoting tornadodude:
tough blog today,

gw, cc, politics, etc :P

if we're lucky we might get an occasional weather post!

With the Gulf of Mexico being as cool as it is, all that warm moist air is not available for those big severe weather outbreaks. But there is warm air advecting up from Old Mexico into the CONUS. Might cause some severe in a couple of days.
It will be interesting to see (I should live so long) if the Halocene Maximum equals or exceeds the Eemian Max. I honestly don't know if human activity is affecting the climate. In the long run though it dosen't matter. We'll do what we can.