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Comparing the 2012 drought to the Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:52 PM GMT on August 16, 2012

The great U.S. drought of 2012 remained about the same size and intensity over the past week, said NOAA in their weekly U.S. Drought Monitor report issued Thursday, August 16. The area of the contiguous U.S. covered by drought remained constant at 62%, and the area covered by severe or greater drought also remained constant at 46%. However, the area covered by the highest level of drought--exceptional--increased by 50%, from 4% to 6%. Large expansions of exceptional drought occurred over the heart of America's grain producing areas, in Kansas, Nebraska, Oklahoma, and Missouri. The new NOAA State of the Climate Drought report for July 2012 shows that the 2012 drought is 5th greatest in U.S. history, and the worst in 56 years. The top five years for area of the contiguous U.S. covered by moderate or greater drought:

1) Jul 1934, 80%
2) Dec 1939, 60%
3) Jul 1954, 60%
4) Dec 1956, 58%
5) Jul 2012, 57%

The top five years for the area of the contiguous U.S. covered by severe or greater drought:

1) Jul 1934, 63%
2) Sep 1954, 50%
3) Dec 1956, 46%
4) Aug 1936, 43%
5) Jul 2012, 38%


Figure 1. August 14, 2012 drought conditions showed historic levels of drought across the U.S., with 62% of the contiguous U.S. experiencing moderate or greater drought, and 46% of the county experiencing severe or greater drought. Image credit: U.S. Drought Monitor.

Comparison with the great Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s
An important fact to remember is that the 2012 drought is--so far--only a one-year drought. Recall that 2011 saw record rains that led to unprecedented flooding on the Mississippi, Ohio, and Missouri Rivers. In contrast, the great droughts of the 1950s and 1930s were multi-year droughts. The Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s lasted up to eight years in some places, with the peak years being 1934, 1936, and 1939 - 1940. Once the deep soil dries out, it maintains a memory of past drought years. This makes is easier to have a string of severe drought years. Since the deep soil this summer still maintains the memory of the very wet year of 2011, the 2012 drought will be easier to break than the Dust Bowl droughts of the 1930s were.

In addition, a repeat of the dust storms of the 1930s Dust Bowl is much less likely now, due to improved farming practices. In a 2009 paper titled, Amplification of the North American "Dust Bowl" drought through human-induced land degradation, a team of scientists led by Benjamin Cook of the Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory explained the situation:

During the 1920s, agriculture in the United States expanded into the central Great Plains. Much of the original, drought-resistant prairie grass was replaced with drought-sensitive wheat. With no drought plan and few erosion-control measures in place, this led to large-scale crop failures at the initiation of the drought, leaving fields devegetated and barren, exposing easily eroded soil to the winds. This was the source of the major dust storms and atmospheric dust loading of the period on a level unprecedented in the historical record.


Figure 2. Black Sunday: On April 14, 1935 a "Black Blizzard" hit Oklahoma and Texas with 60 mph winds, sweeping up topsoil loosened by the great Dust Bowl drought that began in 1934.


The Dust Bowl drought and heat of the 1930s: partially human-caused
Using computer models of the climate, the scientists found that the Dust Bowl drought was primarily caused by below-average ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific and warmer than average ocean temperatures in the Atlantic, which acted together to alter the path of the jet stream and bring fewer precipitation-bearing storms to the Central U.S. However, the full intensity of the drought and its spatial extent could not be explained by ocean temperature patterns alone. Only when their model included the impact of losing huge amounts of vegetation in the Plains due to poor farming practices could the full warmth of the 1930s be simulated. In addition, only by including the impact of the dust kicked up by the great dust storms of the Dust Bowl, which blocked sunlight and created high pressure zones of sinking air that discouraged precipitation, could the very low levels of precipitation be explained. The Dust Bowl drought had natural roots, but human-caused effects made the drought worse and longer-lasting. The fact that we are experiencing a drought in 2012 comparable to the great Dust Bowl drought of the 1930s--without poor farming practices being partially to blame--bodes ill for the future of drought in the U.S. With human-caused global warming expected to greatly increase the intensity and frequency of great droughts like the 2012 drought in coming decades, we can expect drought to cause an increasing amount of damage and economic hardship for the U.S. Since the U.S. is the world's largest food exporter, this will also create an increasing amount of hardship and unrest in developing countries that rely on food imports.

Jeff Masters

Drought

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

For those of us in Corpus and surrounding, EX TD 07 (or whatever the correct name is) is a perfect solution for what ails us down here. Now, will you please direct it to move ashore just north of Port Mansfield and continue on a NNW track for say 700 miles or so? Thank you, we greatly appreciate it!
Quoting Tazmanian:




it is way way way too early too say that the mode runs will change 100s of time befor the mode runs come in too a good fix on where 94L will go



the USA need too close watch 94L for some kind of
threat down the rd

If it becomes strong, there is a very high chance it does not affect the USA.
1503. hydrus
1504. Patrap
TD 07 Rainbow Loop

489

WHXX01 KWBC 171244

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1244 UTC FRI AUG 17 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL942012) 20120817 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120817 1200 120818 0000 120818 1200 120819 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 11.6N 21.0W 12.1N 23.1W 12.3N 25.3W 12.5N 27.4W

BAMD 11.6N 21.0W 12.0N 23.4W 12.2N 25.8W 12.5N 27.9W

BAMM 11.6N 21.0W 12.0N 23.8W 12.1N 26.4W 12.0N 28.8W

LBAR 11.6N 21.0W 12.2N 24.3W 12.8N 27.9W 13.5N 31.5W

SHIP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 46KTS

DSHP 20KTS 26KTS 35KTS 46KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120819 1200 120820 1200 120821 1200 120822 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 12.6N 29.7W 12.7N 34.6W 13.6N 39.1W 15.4N 42.9W

BAMD 12.7N 30.1W 13.4N 34.6W 14.9N 39.5W 16.8N 44.1W

BAMM 11.8N 31.1W 11.5N 34.9W 13.2N 38.7W 16.1N 42.9W

LBAR 14.0N 35.1W 14.3N 42.3W 10.0N 44.7W 15.0N 45.3W

SHIP 58KTS 81KTS 99KTS 110KTS

DSHP 58KTS 81KTS 99KTS 110KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 11.6N LONCUR = 21.0W DIRCUR = 280DEG SPDCUR = 18KT

LATM12 = 11.1N LONM12 = 17.0W DIRM12 = 281DEG SPDM12 = 15KT

LATM24 = 10.7N LONM24 = 13.6W

WNDCUR = 20KT RMAXWD = 50NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1012MB OUTRAD = 150NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN


looks like 94L no out too sea for you
Quoting ncstorm:
Good Morning..I see we got red! I said yesterday that even though the models werent showing a strong system that they usually have issues with storms in the GOM in that area..
You got that right.The system is ventilating.You have low shear..check..warm sst..check..high TCHP...check..and a moist environment..check.
001

WHXX01 KWBC 171245

CHGHUR

TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL

1245 UTC FRI AUG 17 2012



DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.

PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.



ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR



DISTURBANCE SEVEN (AL072012) 20120817 1200 UTC



...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...

120817 1200 120818 0000 120818 1200 120819 0000



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 20.0N 96.0W 20.5N 97.7W 20.9N 99.3W 21.4N 100.5W

BAMD 20.0N 96.0W 20.5N 97.7W 20.7N 99.1W 20.8N 100.1W

BAMM 20.0N 96.0W 20.5N 97.7W 21.0N 99.1W 21.4N 100.1W

LBAR 20.0N 96.0W 20.5N 97.8W 21.4N 99.6W 22.3N 101.3W

SHIP 25KTS 32KTS 42KTS 50KTS

DSHP 25KTS 32KTS 29KTS 28KTS



...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...

120819 1200 120820 1200 120821 1200 120822 1200



LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON

BAMS 21.8N 101.4W 22.5N 102.3W 22.8N 103.7W 22.8N 105.7W

BAMD 20.8N 100.6W 20.5N 101.3W 19.8N 102.7W 18.9N 105.1W

BAMM 21.8N 100.7W 22.4N 101.5W 22.6N 102.7W 22.4N 104.7W

LBAR 23.2N 102.4W 25.2N 102.6W 27.7N 100.6W 30.3N 96.5W

SHIP 59KTS 69KTS 70KTS 69KTS

DSHP 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS 27KTS



...INITIAL CONDITIONS...

LATCUR = 20.0N LONCUR = 96.0W DIRCUR = 290DEG SPDCUR = 8KT

LATM12 = 19.3N LONM12 = 94.2W DIRM12 = 280DEG SPDM12 = 12KT

LATM24 = 19.2N LONM24 = 90.7W

WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 30NM WNDM12 = 20KT

CENPRS = 1009MB OUTPRS = 1013MB OUTRAD = 100NM SDEPTH = S

RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM



$$

NNNN
1509. Patrap
Viz also shows the Thunderstorms/Convection growing.




1510. LargoFl
94L.........................
Quoting hydrus:
Kai-Tak makes landfall,,


It held onto typhoon status at landfall right?
Dont know if this was mentioned or not already:



Hurricane Camille was the third and strongest tropical cyclone and second hurricane during the 1969 Atlantic hurricane season. The second of three catastrophic Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in the United States during the 20th century (the others being 1935's Labor Day hurricane and 1992's Hurricane Andrew), which it did near the mouth of the Mississippi River on the night of August 17. Camille and unofficially the Labor Day Hurricane were the only Atlantic hurricanes to exhibit recorded sustained wind speeds of at least 190 miles per hour (310 km/h) until Allen joined the club in 1980, and remains the only confirmed Atlantic hurricane in recorded history to make landfall with wind speeds at or above such a level. The actual windspeed of Hurricane Camille will never be known, however, as it destroyed all of the wind recording instruments upon making landfall. By central pressure, in turn, Camille was the second strongest U.S. landfalling hurricane in recorded history, second only to the Labor Day Hurricane in 1935. It was also the first modern Category 5 hurricane to ever receive a person's name when making landfall in the United States.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

If it becomes strong, there is a very high chance it does not affect the USA.






right now the mode runs are saying no out too sea all so this be come it be comes a strong storm dos not mean it will go out too sea


do i need too start nameing a few of them storms that did not go out too sea ?
1514. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
You got that right.The system is ventilating.You have low shear..check..warm sst..check..high TCHP...check..and a moist environment..check.


and the fact that its going to sit there and spin..texas was asking for rain but they may get a little more with wind
For Reference:

2005: HARVEY formed on August 2
2010: HERMINE formed on September 3
2011: HARVEY formed on August 18

2005: IRENE formed on August 4
2010: IGOR formed on September 8th
2011: IRENE formed on August 20

So, if Isaac and Helene get named before Sunday, we will be ahead of last season and way ahead of 2010. Both had 19 named storms.
1516. LargoFl
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Dont know if this was mentioned or not already:



Hurricane Camille was the third and strongest tropical cyclone and second hurricane during the 1969 Atlantic hurricane season. The second of three catastrophic Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in the United States during the 20th century (the others being 1935's Labor Day hurricane and 1992's Hurricane Andrew), which it did near the mouth of the Mississippi River on the night of August 17. Camille and unofficially the Labor Day Hurricane were the only Atlantic hurricanes to exhibit recorded sustained wind speeds of at least 190 miles per hour (310 km/h) until Allen joined the club in 1980, and remains the only confirmed Atlantic hurricane in recorded history to make landfall with wind speeds at or above such a level. The actual windspeed of Hurricane Camille will never be known, however, as it destroyed all of the wind recording instruments upon making landfall. By central pressure, in turn, Camille was the second strongest U.S. landfalling hurricane in recorded history, second only to the Labor Day Hurricane in 1935. It was also the first modern Category 5 hurricane to ever receive a person's name when making landfall in the United States.
..that was one BAD storm alright
Evening all. Ex-Td7 is looking very good to become a TD again. I wonder if at 2pm Ex-TD7 will become TD7 again and then when the HH'ers investigate we'll have TS Helene.

Also, I wonder what effect the front will have on it, could the front pull it back into the GOM and then ENE???
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Dont know if this was mentioned or not already:



Hurricane Camille was the third and strongest tropical cyclone and second hurricane during the 1969 Atlantic hurricane season. The second of three catastrophic Category 5 hurricanes to make landfall in the United States during the 20th century (the others being 1935's Labor Day hurricane and 1992's Hurricane Andrew), which it did near the mouth of the Mississippi River on the night of August 17. Camille and unofficially the Labor Day Hurricane were the only Atlantic hurricanes to exhibit recorded sustained wind speeds of at least 190 miles per hour (310 km/h) until Allen joined the club in 1980, and remains the only confirmed Atlantic hurricane in recorded history to make landfall with wind speeds at or above such a level. The actual windspeed of Hurricane Camille will never be known, however, as it destroyed all of the wind recording instruments upon making landfall. By central pressure, in turn, Camille was the second strongest U.S. landfalling hurricane in recorded history, second only to the Labor Day Hurricane in 1935. It was also the first modern Category 5 hurricane to ever receive a person's name when making landfall in the United States.
Satellite has come a loooong way.
Quoting robintampabay:



Here is a link to a report explaining why the SSA is buying ammo.http://cnsnews.com/news/article/social-securi ty-administration-explains-plan-buy-174000-hollow- point-bullets
Thanks for that. So 174,000 rounds divided among 295 agents mean they each have access to fewer than 600 rounds. That sounds like a lot, but if that's an annual requisition, it works out to fewer than two rounds per day per agent. Not much, overall...and certainly not enough to quell an armed uprising (I personally know people with 100,000 rounds stockpiled).
1520. LargoFl
..94L
1521. TXCWC
I am probally going out on a thin limb here but I suspect these tracks will shift north as this system becomes better organized - though I must admit it seems like a pretty tight consensus for initial tracks. Also going with the fact that initial official track forecast is usually NOT where a system ultimately ends up. Besides that, I already have said the Brownsville area! lol :)

1522. ncstorm
guys meet 2004 hurricane Ivan

and it looks like 94L is where Ivan is now or vary close

17/1145 UTC 11.1N 23.1W TOO WEAK 94L -- Atlantic


1524. hydrus
euro 240..
1525. ncstorm
Quoting TXCWC:
I am probally going out on a thin limb here but I suspect these tracks will shift north as this system becomes better organized - though I must admit it seems like a pretty tight consensus for initial tracks. Also going with the fact that initial official track forecast is usually NOT where a system ultimately ends up.



maybe it will go inland with a weaker storm with those tracks and what the models are portraying but if you have a stronger storm which the models arent showing, I would think it would feel the effect of the trough and pull it north..
Quoting ncstorm:


and the fact that its going to sit there and spin..texas was asking for rain but they may get a little more with wind
A strong Tropical storm is definitely not out of the question.
Since we're talking about Camille this morning, I thought I'd show this again:

BULLETIN 9 PM CDT SUNDAY AUGUST 17, 1969

...CAMILLE...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS...CENTER HAS PASSED MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER...CONTINUES TOWARD THE MISSISSIPPI ALABAMA COAST...

HURRICANE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM NEW ORLEANS AND GRAND ISLE LOUISIANA EATSWARD ACROSS THE MISSISSIPPI...ALABAMA...AND NORTHWEST FLORIDA COAST TO APPALACHICOLA. GALE WARNINGS ARE IN EFFECT FROM MORGAN CITY TO GRAND ISLE. CONTINUE ALL PRECAUTIONS.

WINDS ARE INCREASING AND TIDES ARE RISING ALONG THE NORTHERN GULF COAST FROM GRAND ISLE EASTWARD. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE NOW OCCURRING OVER EXTREME SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA AND WILL BE SPREADING OVER MOST OF THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

THE FOLLOWING TIDES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS CAMILLE MOVES INLAND...MISSISSIPPI COAST GULFPORT TO PASCAGOULA 15 TO 20 FEET...PASCAGOULA TO MOBILE 10 TO 15 FEET...EAST OF MOBILE TO PENSACOLA 6 TO 10 FEET. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 5 TO 8 FEET. IMMEDIATE EVACUATION OF AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE HIGH TIDES IS URGENTLY ADVISED.

THE CENTER OF CAMILLE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INLAND ON THE MISSISSIPPI COAST NEAR GULFPORT BEFORE MIDNIGHT.

SEVERAL TORNADOES ARE LIKELY TONIGHT WITHIN 100 MILES OF THE COAST FROM EXTREME SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA TO FORT WALTON BEACH FLORIDA.

HEAVY RAINS WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS 8 TO 10 INCHES WILL SPREAD INTO SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI...SOUTHWEST ALABAMA...AND THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE TONIGHT. AND FLOOD STATEMENTS NEEDED WILL BE ISSUED BY THE LOCAL WEATHER BUREAU OFFICES.

AT 9 PM CDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE CAMILLE WAS LOCATED BY NEW ORLEANS AND OTHER LAND BASED RADARS NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 89.1 WEST...OR ABOUT 35 MILES SOUTH OF GULFPROT MISSISSIPPI AND 60 MILES EAST OF NEW ORLEANS. CAMILLE WILL CONTINUE NORTHWARD ABOUT 15 MPH.

HIGHEST WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 190 MPH NEAR THE CENTER. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD 60 MILES AND GALES EXTEND OUTWARD 180 MILES FROM THE CENTER. THE AIR FORCE RECON FLIGHT INTO CAMILLE THIS AFTERNOON REPORTED A CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 26.61 INCHES.

THOSE IN THE AREA OF THE EYE ARE REMINDED THAT THE WINDS WILL DIE DOWN SUDDENLY IF THE EYE PASSES OVER YOUR AREA BUT THE WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN RAPIDLY AND FROM THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION AS THE EYE MOVES AWAY. THE LULL WITH CAMILLE WILL PROBABLY LAST FROM A FEW MINUTES TO ONE HALF HOUR AND PERSONS SHOULD NOT VENTURE FAR FROM SAFE SHELTER.

WINDS GUSTED TO SLIGHTLY OVER 100 MPH AT BOOTHVILLE LOUISIANA ABOUT 7 PM. NEW ORLEANS WEATHER BUREAU OFFICE WAS REPORTING WINDS 45 TO 50 MPH WITH GUSTS TO NEAR 70 MPH AT 8 PM.

REPEATING THE 9PM POSITION...29.9 NORTH...89.1 WEST.

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BER ISSUED BY THE NEW ORLEANS WEATHER BUREAU AT 11 PM AND BULLETIN AT 1 AND 3 AM CDT.

SLOAN
"HIGHEST WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 190 MPH NEAR THE CENTER".

No words. No words at all...
Quoting LargoFl:
..94L


Well SHIPS model never met a pre-cyclone that it didn't like lol. You could probably superimpose the graphs for 75% of all its runs and still see a single solid line.
1529. Grothar
Interesting that the ECMWF still has 94L much farther South than the other models. Also, it shows a little system to its west as well.

The general trend for 94L is out to sea, no surprise given the pattern in place.

exTD7 could become a minimal TS before moving inland, but it's going to have to work quickly.
1531. LargoFl
No chance at ALL..for this blob in the gulf to get stronger and develop?......................
1532. Patrap
A Lady Called Camille

Quoting CybrTeddy:
The general trend for 94L is out to sea, no surprise given the pattern in place.

exTD7 could become a minimal TS before moving inland, but it's going to have to work quickly.




too early too say out too sea
Local Mets in Houston are starting to look at ex TD 7 and saying it looks to be a rain event along the Texas coast even to Houston. The forecast for Houston has changed in the last 24 hours with more rain in the forecast. I guess it really depends how much this front moves south, right now it looks like it will clip SE Texas and stall and with the moisture coming in from Ex TD 7 we can expect a lot of much needed rain.
I don't think ex TD 7 will be a named storm as it looks like it will follow the coast line and be over land before is can get its act together but the warm waters and 100 miles to the east could change my thinking quite a bit.
Quoting Grothar:
Interesting that the ECMWF still has 94L much farther South than the other models. Also, it shows a little system to its west as well.

Earl and Fiona part two?.
So it looks like 94L will probably be Helene. Does anyone have any ideas as to what the upper-level set-up will be along the east coast of the United States in the 6-10 day period(any troughs, dips in the jet-stream, or ridges of high pressure)? That will have a huge impact on the steering of this system and I am curious to see what will come to pass.
Quoting Neapolitan:
Since we're talking about Camille this morning, I thought I'd show this again:"HIGHEST WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 190 MPH NEAR THE CENTER".

No words. No words at all...


THE FOLLOWING TIDES ARE EXPECTED TONIGHT AS CAMILLE MOVES INLAND...MISSISSIPPI COAST GULFPORT TO PASCAGOULA 15 TO 20 FEET...PASCAGOULA TO MOBILE 10 TO 15 FEET...EAST OF MOBILE TO PENSACOLA 6 TO 10 FEET. ELSEWHERE IN THE AREA OF HURRICANE WARNING EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER 5 TO 8 FEET. IMMEDIATE EVACUATION OF AREAS THAT WILL BE AFFECTED BY THESE HIGH TIDES IS URGENTLY ADVISED.

That sentence jumped out at me...horribly, horribly late for anyone to do that.
Quoting Grothar:
Interesting that the ECMWF still has 94L much farther South than the other models. Also, it shows a little system to its west as well.



I was just about to post that. I was suprised that no one mentioned that on here this morning. The Euro also keeps this on a w/wne track toward the SE Bahamas. Very interesting.

1540. LargoFl
not unusual for flooding rivers in north florida with all the rain they have been getting............FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

...THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING RIVERS IN FLORIDA...
ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT ON OLD MAGNOLIA RD AFFECTING WAKULLA
COUNTY


ALL PERSONS WITH INTEREST ALONG THE RIVER SHOULD MONITOR THE LATEST
FORECASTS...
AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY. DO
NOT DRIVE CARS THROUGH FLOODED AREAS. IF YOU SEE FLOOD
WATERS...REMEMBER TO TURN
AROUND AND DO NOT DROWN.


&&

FLC129-171420-
/O.CON.KTAE.FL.W.0010.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
/NEPF1.1.ER.120808T1800Z.120810T2000Z.000000T0000 Z.NO/
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 16 2012

THE FLOOD WARNING CONTINUES FOR
THE ST. MARKS RIVER NEAR NEWPORT ON OLD MAGNOLIA RD.
* UNTIL FURTHER NOTICE...OR UNTIL THE WARNING IS CANCELLED.
* AT 10:00 AM THURSDAY THE STAGE WAS 7.2 FEET.
* MINOR FLOODING IS OCCURRING AND MINOR FLOODING IS FORECAST.
* FLOOD STAGE IS 7.0 FEET.
* FORECAST...THE RIVER WILL REMAIN NEAR 7.2 FEET.
* IMPACT...AT 7.0 FEET...MINOR LOWLAND FLOODING BEGINS.



&&


FLD OBSERVED 7AM EST / 8AM EDT FORECAST
LOCATION STG STG DAY TIME FRI SAT SUN MON TUE

ST. MARKS RIVER
NEWPORT ON 7 7.2 THU 10 AM 7.2 7.2 7.2 7.1 7.1


$$
Quoting hydrus:
euro 240..


Yesterday's run.
1542. ncstorm
How can anyone say something is going out to sea and its still off of Africa..I just want to post a little something yesterday from Hurricane Earl when it was supposed to turn before PR because of the "pattern"..IE troughs..

from Dr. Masters Blog..
Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, and we now have two of our six reliable models predicting a U.S. landfall. The latest NOGAPS run shows Earl hitting the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Thursday night, then striking Southeast Massachusetts late Friday night, and Eastern Maine on Saturday morning. The HWRF model predicts a strike on Eastern Maine Saturday morning, but keeps Earl offshore from North Carolina and Massachusetts. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but several models bring Earl within 100 - 200 miles of North Carolina's Outer Banks and Southeast Massachusetts.

The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from Cape Hatteras three days from now. The average error in a 4-day forecast is 255 miles, which is about the distance Earl is expected to be from the coast of New England four days from now.
1543. LargoFl
1544. hydrus
Ships thrown ashore by Camille..
Quoting Neapolitan:
Thanks for that. So 174,000 rounds divided among 295 agents mean they each have access to fewer than 600 rounds. That sounds like a lot, but if that's an annual requisition, it works out to fewer than two rounds per day per agent. Not much, overall...and certainly not enough to quell an armed uprising (I personally know people with 100,000 rounds stockpiled).


100,000 rounds. For public safety, people with that kind of stockpile should have to report it to the local fire department unless the stockpile is well away from anything the fire department will ever have to deal with. If it all cooked off, it would be one hell of an explosion, dangerous to fire fighters and anyone else close by.
1546. hydrus
Even cinder block structures were torn apart by Camille..
1547. Patrap
The Hurricane Camille Memorial in Mississippi,post Katrina



1548. LargoFl
I hope no tornado's today up there...........THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTHEAST ALABAMA...
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL GEORGIA...THE FLORIDA BIG BEND AND
PANHANDLE...AND THE ADJACENT GULF COASTAL WATERS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP
TODAY. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL
REACH SEVERE LIMITS WITH DAMAGING WIND GUSTS THE PRIMARY THREAT.
THERE IS ALSO POTENTIAL THAT LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD CAUSE
FLOODING IN POOR DRAINAGE AREAS.
Quoting ncstorm:
How can anyone say something is going out to sea and its still off of Africa..I just want to post a little something yesterday from Hurricane Earl when it was supposed to turn before PR because of the "pattern"..IE troughs..

from Dr. Masters Blog..
Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, and we now have two of our six reliable models predicting a U.S. landfall. The latest NOGAPS run shows Earl hitting the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Thursday night, then striking Southeast Massachusetts late Friday night, and Eastern Maine on Saturday morning. The HWRF model predicts a strike on Eastern Maine Saturday morning, but keeps Earl offshore from North Carolina and Massachusetts. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but several models bring Earl within 100 - 200 miles of North Carolina's Outer Banks and Southeast Massachusetts.

The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from Cape Hatteras three days from now. The average error in a 4-day forecast is 255 miles, which is about the distance Earl is expected to be from the coast of New England four days from now.
Earl for some reason was really determined to reach the U.S.He basically screwed the pattern and was going with his own rules.
1550. hydrus
Quoting StormTracker2K:


Yesterday's run.
bawl !
Quoting Patrap:
A Lady Called Camille


this storm still gives me chills when it is mentioned...
1552. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Earl for some reason was really determined to reach the U.S.He basically screwed the pattern and was going with his own rules.


Yep! same pattern right now we are in..its going to come down to timing and strength of the storm..
1553. Patrap
Indeed, I was 9.5 then and we always ,well my Parents and Grandparents talked about it only in Low Hushed tones, almost Always. We have a Family Home in Bay St. Louis that my Father built for his Dad and Mom in 1961.

They made out well as they lived off of 90 on the West Side of the Bay off the Ol Spanish Trail. Lost a lotta Tall Pines, but the House fared excellent.

But K would push 7 ft of water thru it in 05,4 Miles from the Beach.
1554. VR46L
soon to be Helena / Issac, models crying out that its is going to be monster fish


sorry for the dumb question but what does it mean when a chart like this shows a 500mb height bar?
Quoting hydrus:
code red in the GOM...just really hate seeing anything this close to home develop....I see others have been mentioning Camille...I thought about Audrey yesterday. Hopefully this system will move inland quickly.
1557. hydrus
A large, antebellum mansion destroyed by the high winds and storm surge. Only the stairs remain.
Quoting ncstorm:


Yep! same pattern right now we are in..its going to come down to timing and strength of the storm..
Euro shows this taking a Earl like track.To far out to really tell.but it should (hopefully) be a fun ride to track.
folks pay attention. the reason why nearly all the models show 94L is a fish is because they stregthen it rapidly. notice on the 0z euro 94L doesnt develop until further west. this is why is takes a southern track toward the bahamas. i know the GFS has been good on stuff close to home but i remember levi told me this season systems wont get strong unless they are further north and west. im leaning towards the euro...
Quoting Patrap:
Indeed, I was 9.5 then and we always ,well my Parents and Grandparents talked about it only in Low Hushed tones, almost Always. We have a Family Home in Bay St. Louis that my Father built for his Dad and Mom in 1961.

They made out well as they lived off of 90 on the West Side of the Bay off the Ol Spanish Trail. Lost a lotta Tall Pines, but the House fared excellent.

But K would push 7 ft of water thru it in 05,4 Miles from the Beach.

one of memories that has stayed with me from childhood is driving down the coastal road through that area and seeing only concrete steps where a house once stood, or perhaps a chimney.
1561. yoboi
Quoting Tazmanian:




too early too say out too sea


good morn taz...
1562. Grothar
The famous Richelieu apartment building - Camille

Quoting VR46L:
soon to be Helena / Issac, models crying out that its is going to be monster fish


Looks really good.The system in the BOC looks like It'll at least be Helene before moving inland.I don't want this wave to be Helene.been looking forward to Isaac all season long and wouldn't want him to be a weak storm in the Gulf affecting anyone.
1564. LargoFl
LASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
818 AM CDT FRI AUG 17 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SHREVEPORT HAS ISSUED A

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
OUACHITA PARISH IN NORTH CENTRAL LOUISIANA...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF...WEST MONROE...SWARTZ...MONROE...
CLAIBORNE...BROWNSVILLE-BAWCOMVILLE...

* UNTIL 1215 PM CDT

* AT 812 AM CDT...THE PUBLIC REPORTED VERY HEAVY RAIN FROM A
THUNDERSTORM OVER THE WARNED AREA WITH MINOR FLOODING REPORTED.
A THUNDERSTORM...APPROACHING FROM THE NORTHWEST WILL
PRODUCE AN ADDITIONAL ONE TO TWO INCHES OF RAINFALL OVER A SHORT
PERIOD OF TIME ACROSS THE WARNED AREA.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO
STERLINGTON...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

EXCESSIVE RUNOFF FROM HEAVY RAINFALL WILL CAUSE FLOODING OF SMALL
CREEKS AND STREAMS...URBAN AREAS...HIGHWAYS...STREETS AND UNDERPASSES
AS WELL AS OTHER DRAINAGE AREAS AND LOW LYING SPOTS.
1565. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
Euro shows this taking a Earl like track.To far out to really tell.but it should (hopefully) be a fun ride to track.


yeah still too far out but the runs yesterday had this turning well before Bermuda and now today's run showing Bermuda closer in the recurve..the ensembles always had this right at bermuda or past bermuda..going to be interesting thats for sure..
I thought 94L did start further north and east. did this come off at a lower latitude?
Quoting floridaboy14:
folks pay attention. the reason why nearly all the models show 94L is a fish is because they stregthen it rapidly. notice on the 0z euro 94L doesnt develop until further west. this is why is takes a southern track toward the bahamas. i know the GFS has been good on stuff close to home but i remember levi told me this season systems wont get strong unless they are further north and west. im leaning towards the euro...
Quoting floridaboy14:
folks pay attention. the reason why nearly all the models show 94L is a fish is because they stregthen it rapidly. notice on the 0z euro 94L doesnt develop until further west. this is why is takes a southern track toward the bahamas. i know the GFS has been good on stuff close to home but i remember levi told me this season systems wont get strong unless they are further north and west. im leaning towards the euro...


It's still a fish and you can't wishcast it into FL or the east coast. This season was a bust unless the NHC starts upgrading every little wave the next 2 months. The only threats for the US will be from systems that form off cold fronts in the GOM . Welcome to El-nino :)
So the season is not a bust-yet.
1569. icmoore
Quoting Neapolitan:
Since we're talking about Camille this morning, I thought I'd show this again:"HIGHEST WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 190 MPH NEAR THE CENTER".

No words. No words at all...


I was not quite 14 years old, living in Jacksonville, FL and I remember my parents talking about it and seeing pictures afterwards..
A link to a few before and after pictures.

Link
1571. ncstorm
Quoting VR46L:
soon to be Helena / Issac, models crying out that its is going to be monster fish




already looks good..I never predict "colors" on next updates but that should be an orange, no doubt..
Question:

Has a Tropical Cyclone ever circled the Atlantic, passing over the north side of the ridge, turning back south near Africa, and then heading back west through the MDR for a second pass?!


Seems unlikely, but not physically impossible?!
same thing happened in 2010 and 2011 during la nina also.
Quoting mobileshadow:


It's still a fish and you can't wishcast it into FL or the east coast. This season was a bust unless the NHC starts upgrading every little wave the next 2 months. The only threats for the US will be from systems that form off cold fronts in the GOM . Welcome to the El-nino :)
1574. Patrap
Quoting hurricanehanna:

one of memories that has stayed with me from childhood is driving down the coastal road through that area and seeing only concrete steps where a house once stood, or perhaps a chimney.


Yes mam, from that point forward till 05, we held Camille as THE benchmark, and we openly scoffed in Waveland for years that the water could NEVER go pass the RR Tracks.

We were never so wrong in our Lives.


At least we have 2 generations now with a LIVING memory of what can happen.

Never again we say here, never again.
1575. LargoFl
Quoting hydrus:
A large, antebellum mansion destroyed by the high winds and storm surge. Only the stairs remain.
when a storm such as this is even long range forecasted to come near my area..I will be waving HI..from canada maybe,far far away,anyone staying put is downright foolish
Quoting mobileshadow:


It's still a fish and you can't wishcast it into FL or the east coast. This season was a bust unless the NHC starts upgrading every little wave the next 2 months. The only threats for the US will be from systems that form off cold fronts in the GOM . Welcome to the El-nino :)
We are ahead of both 2010 and 2011 :/
1577. hydrus
Quoting kshipre1:
sorry for the dumb question but what does it mean when a chart like this shows a 500mb height bar?
The Mets use it for determining vorticity at 18,000 to 20,000 feet.
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
In a surprise, CO2 emissions fall to 20-year low in U.S.


They claim it's because of natural gas replacing some coal use.

Personally, I think the "recession" is just as much responsible.
1579. Grothar
Homestead after Andrew.




Florida City:

1580. ncstorm
I know this is not trying to circle back?
1581. LargoFl
. ..................models are changing now, wont matter much till the plane gets there this afternoon
ok, thanks but why 500mb? what is that? what is vorticity and why do they sometimes show the 850mb chart? sorry.
Quoting hydrus:
The Mets use it for determining vorticity at 18,000 to 20,000 feet.
Quoting unknowncomic:
So the season is not a bust-yet.


And we know how accurate the CMC model is when it comes to the tropics :)The CMC model wanted to take Ernesto to FL. It should be thrown in the trash where it belongs
1584. Patrap
Lordy,,

What nonsense early.

Sheeesh


Boing,,,
interesting you ask that. the storm back in 2004 that went into the atlantic, did a 360 loop and hit the east coast of florida! lol
Quoting ncstorm:
I know this is not trying to circle back?
Quoting Patrap:
Lordy,,

What nonsense early.

Sheeesh


Boing,,,
The fun is just beginning Pat.
1587. hydrus
Quoting Patrap:
Indeed, I was 9.5 then and we always ,well my Parents and Grandparents talked about it only in Low Hushed tones, almost Always. We have a Family Home in Bay St. Louis that my Father built for his Dad and Mom in 1961.

They made out well as they lived off of 90 on the West Side of the Bay off the Ol Spanish Trail. Lost a lotta Tall Pines, but the House fared excellent.

But K would push 7 ft of water thru it in 05,4 Miles from the Beach.
I always believed that Camille,s storm surge record would stand for centuries. 36 years falls way short.
1588. LargoFl
Quoting unknowncomic:
So the season is not a bust-yet.


So what?

The model is parking the AOI over the BoC for seven full days?!

Or did that come from somewhere else?

Well, GFS kills the existing AOI and does nothing in the region for the remainder of the model run.

Canadian does not even initialize the existing AOI, but has a TD in the BoC on the 7th day.

European does absolutely nothing in the BoC, however, it wants to hook the potential "FISH" much farther west than the GFS solution, with a finger of the ridge remaining in tact right through the end of the run...



So over all, I'd say all the best models are highly divergent for all regions by the time you get to 7 days. They have completely different solutions which are polar opposites in some cases.
1590. Patrap
Quoting hydrus:
I always believed that Camille,s storm surge record would stand for centuries. 36 years falls way short.


Yeah, I never thought something could be worse than 1969,,,

1591. hydrus
Camille and Katrina..
1592. Patrap
FROM NHC: ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR CONDUCIVE
FOR DEVELOPMENT...AND A TROPICAL DEPRESSION COULD FORM BEFORE THIS
SYSTEM REACHES LAND IN THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A HIGH
CHANCE...70 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO NORTHWESTWARD AT
AROUND 10 MPH. INTERESTS ALONG THE GULF COAST OF MEXICO SHOULD
MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...AS A TROPICAL STORM WATCH OR WARNING COULD BE
NEEDED FOR PART OF THE COAST TODAY. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE
HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM THIS
AFTERNOON.
Quoting ncstorm:
I know this is not trying to circle back?


That's why I asked the question above.


The name "Gordon" seems notorious for producing ridiculous circular or figure-8 storm tracks.
Quoting ncstorm:


Yep! same pattern right now we are in..its going to come down to timing and strength of the storm..


Earl was pretty intense, knocked down 3 trees in my backyard!
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
In a surprise, CO2 emissions fall to 20-year low in U.S.


This is kind of misleading, yeah we can to some point credit fracking but largely, being this was for only January through April..some credit should fall to the really warm winter & spring the US had. Will be interesting to see the numbers during the period of the heat waves this summer.
1596. VINNY04
Quoting RTSplayer:


That's why I asked the question above.


The name "Gordon" seems notorious for producing ridiculous circular or figure-8 storm tracks.
Its cursed.
Quoting Patrap:


Yeah, I never thought something could be worse than 1969,,,



And unfortunately in the future, maybe even in our lifetimes, something will be worse than 2005.
1600. LargoFl
Quoting jrweatherman:
The RNC convention is coming soon. Watching the tropics for a potential Tampa impact.

Willard Mitt Romney
He was Born: March 12, 1947 and is 65 years old.
His Father: George W. Romney, former Governor of the State of Michigan and former president of
American Motors Corporation
Education: B.A. from Brigham Young University, J.D. and M.B.A. from Harvard University

Working Background:
After high school, he spent 30 months in France as a Mormon missionary.

After going to both Harvard Business School and Harvard Law School simultaneously, he passed the Michigan bar exam, but never worked as an attorney.

In 1984, he co-founded Bain Capital a private equity investment firm, one of the largest such firms in the United States.

He was President and CEO of the 2002 Winter Olympic Games.

In 2002, he was elected Governor of the State of Massachusetts where he eliminated a 1.5 billion deficit.

Some Interesting Facts about Romney:
Bain Capital, starting with one small office supply store in Massachusetts, turned it into Staples; now over 2,000 stores employing 90,000 people.

Bain Capital also worked to perform the same kinds of business miracles again and again, with companies like Domino's, Sealy, Brookstone, Weather Channel, Burger King, Warner Music Group, Dollarama, The Home Depot, and many others.

*He was an unpaid volunteer campaign worker for his dad's gubernatorial campaign 1 year.
*He was an unpaid intern in his dad's governor's office for eight years.
*He was an unpaid bishop and stake president of his church for ten years.
*He was an unpaid President of the Salt Lake Olympic Committee for three years.
*He took no salary and was the unpaid Governor of Massachusetts for four years.
*He gave his entire inheritance from his father to charity.

*Mitt Romney is one of the wealthiest self-made men in our country but has given more back to its citizens in terms of money, service and time than most men.

*In 2011 Mitt Romney gave over $4 million to charity, almost 19% of his income.
Just for comparison purposes, Obama gave 1% and Joe Biden gave $300 or .0013%.
..question..WHAT tropical Impact for the Tampa area?
1601. Patrap
Quoting atmosweather:


And unfortunately in the future, maybe even in our lifetimes, something will be worse than 2005.


Thats a fact.


While interviewing Dr. Ivor Van Heerden from LSU at the time, showed us how the Levee that Failed at the 17th Canal, actually the failure occurred due to the Pilings stoping right exactly where a Large Hurricane Laid down a peat layer from dead Cypress trees, and that allowed the slumping to occur there.

Irony wins always.

Quoting RTSplayer:


They claim it's because of natural gas replacing some coal use.

Personally, I think the "recession" is just as much responsible.


I agree that recession is probably the main culprit. Individuals are more conscientous with their energy usage, be it gasoline for cars or AC or heating. Downturn in the energy hungry manufacturing sector also important.

There is also an element of continued energy efficiency improvement in all the things people buy, from cars to appliances to heating/AC units.
1603. LargoFl
Quoting jrweatherman:
The RNC convention is coming soon. Watching the tropics for a potential Tampa impact.

Willard Mitt Romney
He was Born: March 12, 1947 and is 65 years old.
His Father: George W. Romney, former Governor of the State of Michigan and former president of
American Motors Corporation
Education: B.A. from Brigham Young University, J.D. and M.B.A. from Harvard University

Working Background:
After high school, he spent 30 months in France as a Mormon missionary.

After going to both Harvard Business School and Harvard Law School simultaneously, he passed the Michigan bar exam, but never worked as an attorney.

In 1984, he co-founded Bain Capital a private equity investment firm, one of the largest such firms in the United States.

He was President and CEO of the 2002 Winter Olympic Games.

In 2002, he was elected Governor of the State of Massachusetts where he eliminated a 1.5 billion deficit.

Some Interesting Facts about Romney:
Bain Capital, starting with one small office supply store in Massachusetts, turned it into Staples; now over 2,000 stores employing 90,000 people.

Bain Capital also worked to perform the same kinds of business miracles again and again, with companies like Domino's, Sealy, Brookstone, Weather Channel, Burger King, Warner Music Group, Dollarama, The Home Depot, and many others.

*He was an unpaid volunteer campaign worker for his dad's gubernatorial campaign 1 year.
*He was an unpaid intern in his dad's governor's office for eight years.
*He was an unpaid bishop and stake president of his church for ten years.
*He was an unpaid President of the Salt Lake Olympic Committee for three years.
*He took no salary and was the unpaid Governor of Massachusetts for four years.
*He gave his entire inheritance from his father to charity.

*Mitt Romney is one of the wealthiest self-made men in our country but has given more back to its citizens in terms of money, service and time than most men.

*In 2011 Mitt Romney gave over $4 million to charity, almost 19% of his income.
Just for comparison purposes, Obama gave 1% and Joe Biden gave $300 or .0013%.
..well just wait and see what he does to your social security youngster
Ex-Td7 is looking very close to becoming a TD again. I wonder if at 2pm Ex-TD7 will become TD7 again and then when the HH'ers investigate we'll have TS Helene.

Also, I wonder what effect the front will have on it, could the front pull it back into the GOM and then ENE???
1605. Patrap
I for one never quote Politics as a post number will do usually.

: )
I think the euro is hinting at more of a Bill (2009) track than earl, but we will see, still early in the game! But tracking monster CV's though the Atlantic is always a beautiful site!
Mike Bettes hair line just keeps receding further and further back every time I see him....
Derived from (NHC) ATCF data for TropicalStormGordon for 17August12pmGMT
MinimumPressure remained at 998millibars
MaxSusWinds held to 55knots(63mph)102km/h
Vector changed from 79.2°East@19.3mph(31.1km/h) to 89.5°East@17.1mph(27.5km/h)
(The East octant covers from 78.75° to 101.25°)

CVU-Corvo :: SMA-SantaMaria

The southernmost dot on the connected lines is where 93L became TD.8
The next dot NNWest of the southernmost dot is where TD.8 became TS.Gordon
The westernmost dot on the longest line is TS.Gordon's most recent position

The longest line is a straightline projection through TW.7's 2 most recent positions to its closest approach to the nearest coastline
16August6pmGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 330miles(532kilometres)NNWest of Corvo (unconnected unlabeled dot)
17August12amGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 24.4miles(39.2kilometres)South of SantaMaria (bottom,shortSMAdumbbell)
17August6amGMT: TS.Gordon had been headed for passage 95.4miles(154kilometres)South of SantaMaria (bottom,longSMAdumbbell
17August12pmGMT: TS.Gordon was heading for passage 306miles(493kilometres)SSWest of SantaMaria in ~2days22hours from now (when this was posted) before heading to the CanaryIslands

Copy&paste 43.993n34.029w, cvu, 31.255n19.9w, sma-36.575n25.029w, sma-35.548n25.144w, 29.1n55.0w-30.5n55.4w, 30.5n55.4w-31.7n55.2w, 31.7n55.2w-32.9n54.4w, 32.9n54.4w-33.9n53.0w, 33.9n53.0w-34.3n51.1w, 34.3n51.1w-34.6n49.1w, 34.6n49.1w-34.6n47.3w, 34.6n49.1w-32.591n26.194w, 36.928n25.017w-32.591n26.194w into the GreatCircleMapper for a larger-scale map and other information
The previous mapping for comparison
1599. Really? Wow, that is so weather relevant....get a clue, dude. Keep that crap on your personal blog, and look into the rectal-cranial inversion therapy you are so desperately in need of... What part of Weather Blog do you not get?
1611. TXCWC
Initial track models and HPC dynamic model discussion do not agree, again leading me to believe tracks will eventually shift further north..."MODELS CLUSTER REASONABLY WELL IN ALLOWING THE REMNANTS OF TD SEVEN TO STALL NEAR THE MEXICO COAST JUST SOUTH OF BROWNSVILLE THIS WEEKEND WITH THE POTENTIAL TO STRENGTHEN AND POSSIBLY BECOME ABSORBED BY AN UPPER TROUGH AFFECTING AREAS MAINLY EAST OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER..." Link
1613. LargoFl
Come on baby..you CAN do it, come to me, Give me your loving rains.....................
1614. bappit
Quoting Grothar:
Homestead after Andrew.




Florida City:


Mobile homes don't do so good in that wind.
1615. Patrap
...."I gotta tell yas Folks, Listen to Grothar as this unfolds this weekend and early next week, as His Wisdom carries the day usually,,back to Doc Masters and you Guys in the Studio"...


For you tech savvy people out there. I'm using Google Chrome. I type in www.wunderground.com and it automatically seems to bring me to a political discussion forum instead of a tropical weather discussion forum. Any thoughts? ;-)
Quoting LargoFl:
..well just wait and see what he does to your social security youngster



Lol, it doesn't matter who's elected old timer, social security is dead
1618. hydrus
Quoting bappit:

Mobile homes don't do so good in that wind.
They became mobile, or were obliterated beyond recognition.
Quoting bappit:

Mobile homes don't do so good in that wind.


Neither do well-constructed 2 story homes, as I can personally attest to lol...about 75% rubble.
1620. Patrap
Quoting DookiePBC:
For you tech savvy people out there. I'm using Google Chrome. I type in www.wunderground.com and it automatically seems to bring me to a political discussion forum instead of a tropical weather discussion forum. Any thoughts? ;-)


Invest in the Ignore feature,,

Dats why its dere'
1621. LargoFl
.........................84 hours and still sitting there..this could get dangerous
Quoting LargoFl:
..well just wait and see what he does to your social security youngster
better than having none.....which is where we are headed if the deficit continues. Your choice.
Quoting Patrap:


Invest in the Ignore feature,,

Dats why its dere'



no no no.....political arguments dont last long
Quoting DookiePBC:
For you tech savvy people out there. I'm using Google Chrome. I type in www.wunderground.com and it automatically seems to bring me to a political discussion forum instead of a tropical weather discussion forum. Any thoughts? ;-)

Your have the Politic Trojan infestation. Throw your pc out.
1625. yoboi
i did not know bain helped the weather channel, if that is true, you could say bain helped this website...
Quoting AussieStorm:


Thanks for giving us the Bio of whoever this guy is. What does it have to do with Weather???? Please Explain?????
I'm wondering if JrWXman read the Doc's very interesting and informative blog on hurricane strikes on Tampa... just posted it this week so it's easy to find.

I'm also wondering why we are getting only one bio... are we saving the other one for the week of the Democratic convention, or is this a "no politics" blog only when the other team's politics is being posted?
[one eyebrow raised]
Quoting DookiePBC:
For you tech savvy people out there. I'm using Google Chrome. I type in www.wunderground.com and it automatically seems to bring me to a political discussion forum instead of a tropical weather discussion forum. Any thoughts? ;-)

Go to Tropics Chat. You can only talk about the tropics. (At least that's the purpose)
I really don't like talking about politics, especially because I'm not from the U.S., and not an adult yet.
I would like to propose that the next person who brings politics into the weather blog...... gets banned.....
PERMANENTLY!!!!

There is MY political statement!

Politics has NO PLACE in a weather blog!!! There are PLENTY of political forums out there.....please take your politics else elsewhere!
Link

convection growing in the BOC with ex07
1631. Patrap
Night IR to Viz TD 07

1632. hydrus
Quoting DookiePBC:
For you tech savvy people out there. I'm using Google Chrome. I type in www.wunderground.com and it automatically seems to bring me to a political discussion forum instead of a tropical weather discussion forum. Any thoughts? ;-)
The blog is usually interspersed with political bits and pieces. This is not the place for it, but some of it is almost tolerable. I hope we make it through another season without a strike. We have had plenty of natural disasters to deal with, do not need another.
1633. Patrap
1629. thelmores

We can support dat, Houston
1634. LargoFl
(Says in calm voice).So we have Gordon...a system in the BOC likely to become a depression again and soon to be Helene..and a wave by Africa that could also develop..and we're talking about politics????.OH HELL NAWH!!!.
Quoting jrweatherman #1599:
Rule #1: Avoid politics here.

Rule #2: If you're going to violate Rule #1, at least have the courtesy of repeating information from honest sources. (For instance, in 2011, the Obamas gave $245,075 of their $1.73 million in earnings to charity, or more than 14%.)

Rule #3: Depending on Fox alone is intellectually unhealthy.

Rule #4: See Rule #1
Quoting LargoFl:
Come on baby..you CAN do it, come to me, Give me your loving rains.....................
LOL!
1638. Patrap
..I hope Al Roker isnt Waking up to dis thread..
For those of you who insist on posting your political stuff/opinions, I am going to tell you what I tell my son when he starts babbling nonsense - "GO OUTSIDE!!!!"
Hey all.... has anyone else gotten one of these???



Since when did these surveys appear?
I of course clicked... No Thanks.
On the subject of a hurricane hitting Tampa while the RNC is there, I think Debbie has already shown that even a slow-moving minimal TS could cause MASSIVE problems for Tampa in terms of flooding. [This aside from the idea of constant rain for 36 hours] IIRC, the convention centre being used is pretty much downtown, in the area where the flooding was so bad back in June. Any ideas / information on how the city plans to deal with such flooding?

I'm looking at our current invest in the BOC and remembering one forecast takes it considerably further east that we would like [as in away from S / C TX]. It certainly looks like the kind of flooding I'm referencing is at least within the realm of possibility.
1642. ncstorm
Quoting washingtonian115:
(Says in calm voice).So we have Gordon...a system in the BOC likely to become a depression again and soon to be Helene..and a wave by Africa that could also develop..and we're talking about politics????.OH HELL NAWH!!!.


Men..I tell ya..
Quoting thelmores:
I would like to propose that the next person who brings politics into the weather blog...... gets banned.....
PERMANENTLY!!!!

There is MY political statement!

Politics has NO PLACE in a weather blog!!! There are PLENTY of political forums out there.....please take your politics else elsewhere!

roger that!
From NWS Mobile:
CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS THIS REGION...WHILE THE WEAK COLD FRONT
BECOMES STATIONARY NEAR THE COAST. IN ADDITION...MEDIUM RANGE
SOLUTIONS CONTINUE TO SHOW MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH FORMER TROPICAL
DEPRESSION SEVEN SLOWLY MOVING W/NW INTO THE FAR WESTERN GULF OF
MEXICO THROUGH THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. SOME OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THIS FEATURE MAY BE DRAWN NORTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE
NORTHERN GULF/GULF COAST...POTENTIALLY ENHANCING RAIN CHANCES BY THE
MIDDLE TO LATTER PART OF NEXT WEEK. RAIN CHANCES WERE KEPT IN THE
30-40 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS THE CWFA LATE IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST
Dr. Masters,
would you stop letting people talk about politics?
It's getting on many people's nerves, including me.
I think you should make a new rule about mentioning things related to politics.
Thank you.
1646. Patrap
The Front, the Nose of the High, and that System..well..we can see why the concern is warranted downstream.

Stay Tuned.

1647. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hey all.... has anyone else gotten one of these???



Since when did these surveys appear?
I of course clicked... No Thanks.


i just got the same thing, first time today idk what's up...
1648. Patrap
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Dr. Masters,
would you stop letting people talk about politics?
It's getting on many people's nerves, including me.
I think you should make a new rule about mentioning things related to politics.
Thank you.


Use the ignore feature, there is no real time admin here.

Dr. Masters is most likely cranking out his new entry.


But I share your passion.
I never discuss politics on a Friday. :)

Quoting Patrap:
The Front, the Nose of the High, and that System..well..we can see why the concern is warranted downstream.

Stay Tuned.


I hope the pieces of the puzzle don't fit
Quoting AussieStorm:
Hey all.... has anyone else gotten one of these???



Since when did these surveys appear?
I of course clicked... No Thanks.


I haven't, but if I did I'd click the option that says, "OH HELL NAWH!!!"
1652. yoboi
the cool front is now in north louisiana, will it make it to the gom and stall out???
1654. LargoFl
1655. VR46L
Quoting ncstorm:


already looks good..I never predict "colors" on next updates but that should be an orange, no doubt..


I think you may be right its pressure is good, wind @23miles is not bad and it looks good in Funktop too
Best Track Position and Intensity as of:
Friday, August 17, 2012 12:00 Z

Location at the time:
286 statue miles (460 km) to the SE (144°) from Praia, Cape Verde.

Wind (1 min. avg.):
20 knots (~23 mph | 10 m/s | 37 km/h)

Pressure:
1009 mb (29.80 inHg | 1009 hPa)

Coordinates:
11.6N 21W
Source:
National Hurricane Center's (NHC) Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting (ATCF) System and not from any available advisory data



1656. Msdrown
Quoting Patrap:


Thats a fact.


While interviewing Dr. Ivor Van Heerden from LSU at the time, showed us how the Levee that Failed at the 17th Canal, actually the failure occurred due to the Pilings stoping right exactly where a Large Hurricane Laid down a peat layer from dead Cypress trees, and that allowed the slumping to occur there.

Irony wins always.



Pat, I heard something in the aftermath of K that many years before the corrupt local gov who recieved money from the US gov didn't build the levies as originally designed. They took some of the money and spent it on other things non storm related. I believe I heard that on one of the NOLA talk shows/discusions. Do you know anything about that???
Quoting bappit:

Mobile homes don't do so good in that wind.


mobile homes don't do good period
o__0



somebody was cutting around the rain
1659. Patrap
Quoting Msdrown:


Pat, I heard something in the aftermath of K that many years before the corrupt local gov who recieved money from the US gov didn't build the levies as originally designed. They took some of the money and spent it on other things non storm related. I believe I heard that on one of the NOLA talk shows/discusions. Do you know anything about that???


Complete Rumor...as the Levees are a federal Project, and they have very strict Laws and restrictions.

There are numerous types of Levee's, from I-wall, to Berm to others I cant recall.

But no,, the System was designed in 67,post Betsy and completed in the 70's and most of it failed at Cat 2 Levels...when the design called for cat 3.


The US has spent 14 Billion here in the Se La. area post K on improvements that are rated to Cat 3, but thats a relative thing I believe.


In Other News........


Vietnam soldiers on standby for typhoon

VIETNAM has put 20,000 soldiers on standby, ordered boats back to shore and begun evacuating local residents as it prepares for Typhoon Kai-Tak to make landfall.

More than 11,000 boats, including 575 used by tourists at the UNESCO world heritage site Halong Bay, have been ordered to stay close to the shore, the deputy head of Quang Ninh province's flood and storm control department said on Friday.

"Mong Cai town, which borders China, will be directly hit by the storm late on Friday," Nguyen Cong Thuan told AFP, adding that thousands of residents directly in the storm's path had been moved to safer areas.

Before blowing away from the Philippines on Thursday, Kai-Tak swept across the main island of Luzon, dumping heavy rain on the Cagayan basin and other areas in the north, killing four people.

Weather forecasters in Vietnam say the typhoon will bring winds of up to 133km/h when it makes landfall.
The Tuoi Tre newspaper reports the Vietnamese army has put 20,000 soldiers, eight helicopters, 72 rescue boats, 400 vehicles and 1000 canoes on standby to cope with any possible incidents.

Vietnam is hit by an average of between eight and 10 tropical storms a year, often causing heavy material and human losses.
1662. GetReal


Looks like something taking shape in the BOC, and is not going anywhere fast. This could get interesting.
Quoting Patrap:
The Front, the Nose of the High, and that System..well..we can see why the concern is warranted downstream.

Stay Tuned.



Morning all. I just logged in and see what I have been thinking may happen. Pat, what do you think this future storm in the gulf may land?
any chance this boc can go all teh way to Louisiana?
lurker here with very little knowledge but I love the tropics
Quoting Patrap:


Complete Rumor...as the Levees are a federal Project, and they have very strict Laws and restrictions.

There are numerous types of Levee's, from I-wall, to Berm to others I cant recall.

But no,, the System was designed in 67,post Betsy and completed in the 70's and most of it failed at Cat 2 Levels...when the design called for cat 3.


The US has spent 14 Billion here in the Se La. area post K on improvements that are rated to Cat 3, but thats a relative thing I believe.



They may be rated to Cat 3 but yet to be tested. God forbid they do and they fail again.
Did the whole levee system get improved or just the places that failed?
1667. Patrap
Quoting StormPro:


Morning all. I just logged in and see what I have been thinking may happen. Pat, what do you think this future storm in the gulf may land?


I never forecast as a rule as I an NOT a met.

Best to follow the NHC Guidance as they are the Lords of Facts.

Thanx though.

: )
Your 500mb is used to determine your general flow at that particular level, friends of mine who are mets for NWS have told me to really pay attention to that level when dealing with most tropical entities... it gives a good indication of what the overall flow is and what you can expect for movement. The 850 is much closer to the surface than 500 and determines the flow at a lower level, this level can be beneficial for entities that have not developed that much, but change more often. I was always told to utilize the 500mb for a good idea down the road since it generally changes less often as the 850 and lower giving you a good idea of potential direction... Does this sound right?
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
any chance this boc can go all teh way to Louisiana?
lurker here with very little knowledge but I love the tropics
If it get's stronger it could feel the weakness of the trough and get pulled further north.Just a wait and see situation at this point.
1670. Patrap
Quoting AussieStorm:

They may be rated to Cat 3 but yet to be tested. God forbid they do and they fail again.
Did the whole levee system get improved or just the places that failed?


The system as a Whole.


There are beaucoup YouTubes on the Project, which included closing the MRGO, Or The seldom used Mississippi River Gulf Outlet.


New Orleans Renewal - Levees Rebuilt - as part of the news series by GeoBeats.






94l will take sometime to organise. although the WV photos show very cold cloud tops ,the system is under 20knot of wind shear, and is within an elongated area of 850mb vorticity. like most of the other systems 94L is moving at a fast clip of 20mph ,which will impede rapid development. the system will remain weak and continue on a west track ,until nit reaches the catl. after that the track could be up for grabs ,depending how strong the system is and how deep and strong the trough is and how far it reaches. it is very possible that the trough could miss 94L and in this way could become a caribbean tracker.
1672. SLU
Exactly 5 years ago today ... Hurricane Dean passing through the Windwards at 100mph.

I see we have some political talk this morning i prefer not to talk about politics but this lays havy on my heart my country is to pay a 46 million bond payment monday and the Prime Minister says we will default so down we go.
1674. scott39
Sometimes homegrown can be the most potent.
Quoting Patrap:


I never forecast as a rule as I an NOT a met.

Best to follow the NHC Guidance as they are the Lords of Facts.

Thanx though.

: )


Well I understand that but as a resident of the Greater Nawlins area I know you gots a gut feelin...BTW I'm on the northshore but work in the city..we should meet at a Fresca dealership one day
Quoting BahaHurican:
On the subject of a hurricane hitting Tampa while the RNC is there, I think Debbie has already shown that even a slow-moving minimal TS could cause MASSIVE problems for Tampa in terms of flooding. [This aside from the idea of constant rain for 36 hours] IIRC, the convention centre being used is pretty much downtown, in the area where the flooding was so bad back in June. Any ideas / information on how the city plans to deal with such flooding?

I'm looking at our current invest in the BOC andremembering one forecast takes it considerably further east that we would like [as in away from S / C TX]. It certainly looks like the kind of flooding I'm referencing is at least within the realm of possibility.


Being from that area and still having family there, there is not an easy way to deal with flooding. And even if the storm did not go close -- if the winds are going the right way and push the water up through the gulf there could be serious logistic issues.

Many of the streets in the downtown area are almost at water level -- 5-6 inches of rain could close half of downtown arteries.
1677. hydrus
.
1678. ARiot
Quoting AussieStorm:

They may be rated to Cat 3 but yet to be tested. God forbid they do and they fail again.
Did the whole levee system get improved or just the places that failed?


I toured most of the new system in NOLA as part of a work-related event. Th ecity is "ringed" by the new system. Check the government website about it. They have tons of maps, pics, videos, etc.

I know they call it (officially) a "Risk Reduction System" becuase that's all it can do.
Quoting Patrap:


Complete Rumor...as the Levees are a federal Project, and they have very strict Laws and restrictions.

There are numerous types of Levee's, from I-wall, to Berm to others I cant recall.

But no,, the System was designed in 67,post Betsy and completed in the 70's and most of it failed at Cat 2 Levels...when the design called for cat 3.


The US has spent 14 Billion here in the Se La. area post K on improvements that are rated to Cat 3, but thats a relative thing I believe.


Quoting Msdrown:


Pat, I heard something in the aftermath of K that many years before the corrupt local gov who recieved money from the US gov didn't build the levies as originally designed. They took some of the money and spent it on other things non storm related. I believe I heard that on one of the NOLA talk shows/discusions. Do you know anything about that???


Well, the levees are a federal project, but are not necessarily maintained on a daily basis by the army corps. In many instances, it is up to the local levee boards and floodplain manages to monitor the integrity of flood control structures.

As with most major disasters, there is no one answer for what caused the Katrina levee failures to occur. Studies into the failures found many problems adding together, ranging from things USACE could have done better, to reports on levee integrity that were not taken seriously, to things that the city and local levee boards shouldn't have done.
1680. scott39
Where are the models for low 7?
Quoting CajunCrawfishhunter:
any chance this boc can go all teh way to Louisiana?
lurker here with very little knowledge but I love the tropics


at the moment
iam expecting a
circle dance type regime
a creeper along the coast
drifting slowly n
may from time to time stray over land
flooding rains highest impact
1682. yoboi
Quoting AussieStorm:

They may be rated to Cat 3 but yet to be tested. God forbid they do and they fail again.
Did the whole levee system get improved or just the places that failed?


it's rated by storm surge not good to say it can withstand a cat 3, Ike had a storm surge as a cat 4 storm but was not rated a cat 4 at landfall....more people are killed by water in a hurricane than by wind...
1683. DeValk
Quoting thelmores:
I would like to propose that the next person who brings politics into the weather blog...... gets banned.....
PERMANENTLY!!!!

There is MY political statement!

Politics has NO PLACE in a weather blog!!! There are PLENTY of political forums out there.....please take your politics else elsewhere!


True that. ...and the political advertisements on this blog are also annoying. I mean, signing a birthday card??? com'on, that birthday has come and gone..just saying
1684. yoboi
Quoting ScottLincoln:


Well, the levees are a federal project, but are not necessarily maintained on a daily basis by the army corps. In many occasions, it is up to the local levee boards and floodplain manages to monitor the integrity of flood control structures.

As with most major disasters, there is no one answer for what caused the Katrina levee failures to occur. Studies into the failures found many problems adding together, ranging from things USACE could have done better, to reports on levee integrity that were not taken seriously, to things that the city and local levee boards shouldn't have done.


very good post......
Quoting Bobbyweather:
Dr. Masters,
would you stop letting people talk about politics?
It's getting on many people's nerves, including me.
I think you should make a new rule about mentioning things related to politics.
Thank you.


I hear you. Posts like the one JRweather posts are uncalled for. He's done it before. However, Dr. Masters is a huge proponent of GW and as long as he makes it part of the blog, political discussions will not go away.
as always things can change follow NHC/NOAA for all weather warnings for your area
Quoting SLU:
Exactly 5 years ago today ... Hurricane Dean passing through the Windwards at 100mph.



It's been 5 years already since Dean? I remember following Dean just as closely as we are following 94L/TD7/Gordon now. What an incredible storm, just incredible. Only storm since that which was more impressive was Igor at peak.
Rains from X-TD7 on top of those from TS Ernesto has cause a lot of flooding in Northern Belize.

Rainfall Totals For Consejo, Belize:
Storm total for TD7: 11.27 inches.
Storm Total for TS Ernesto: 7.83 inches

Average Total For August: 5.53 inches
August 2012 To Date: 19.68 inches

Average Annual Total: 50.3 inches
2012 Rainfall to date: 50.22

Corozal-Consejo Road, our only road out, is seriously flooded.

Consejo Weather Live
Tropical Weather Page
Consejo Web Cam
1689. Patrap
As far the COE goes, maybe tell the good folks where they Built there NOLA Headquarters here decades ago.

Right Smack on TOP of the Mississippi River Levee pass Magazine Street...on River Road.

And no you wont find a google Image of it.

The Levee seeps there constantly.

I mean, they Built a HUGE Building there and only God know why.

A Local View only.


Thats where I go if a Large Threat comes.

I have a open pass...for ingress.



But my family is o-u-t first call.



Quoting Grothar:
The famous Richelieu apartment building - Camille


Which was then replaced by a Winn Dixie grocery store that was subsequently destroyed by Katrina.
1691. hydrus
In the open Gulf of Mexico, the hurricane produced wave heights of at least 70 feet (21 m), as measured by Shell Oil Company. Along the ocean floor, the storm created mudslides which lowered the ocean floor; its combination with strong waves and winds destroyed three oil platforms, including one that at the time was the deepest oil well. Property damages to the offshore oil industry were initially estimated at $100 million (1969 USD).
The NHC has the CoC for ex TD7 at 20N 96W as of the 12UTC update, which looks pretty good when looking at the satellite imagery, though there is a lack of deep convection in close to this possible center.

Narrow ribbon of ridging remains to the north of ex TD7 as shown here: 500MB-850MB Steering Loop

This should continue moving this area slowly to the WNW. At the western most part the Gulf of Mexico gets to 98W, which means there is less than 120 miles more of westward motion before it's over land.

I think this will be a good rainmaker along the south Texas coast. I think there is a fair chance, perhaps 60 percent that it gets back to TD status, but a lesser chance of TS, perhaps 30-40 percent, as it skirts along the western coast of the GoM

1693. scott39
Low 7 has favorable enviromental conditions for at least the next 5 days, if it stays in the GOM.
1694. Patrap
TD 07 Viz Loop

1695. GetReal
Quoting clwstmchasr:


I hear you. Posts like the one JRweather posts are uncalled for. He's done it before. However, Dr. Masters is a huge proponent of GW and as long as he makes it part of the blog, political discussions will not go away.
GCC or GW is not political, it is scientific fact, and affects weather and weather patterns. It is therefore relevant to a WEATHER BLOG.
1698. scott39
If and when could the trough have an effect on low 7?

Nothing like Leake ave huh?
1700. icmoore
Quoting zoomiami:


Being from that area and still having family there, there is not an easy way to deal with flooding. And even if the storm did not go close -- if the winds are going the right way and push the water up through the gulf there could be serious logistic issues.

Many of the streets in the downtown area are almost at water level -- 5-6 inches of rain could close half of downtown arteries.


Debby had Bayshore Blvd underwater with 7+ inches of rain and wind and the Sunshine Skyway was closed for a few days. There was even a manatee and her 2 calves washed up on the street. The convention center is at the old military fort that Dr Masters talked about in his blog this week about the hurricane that hit Tampa. It was a mess and would be messier with all the additional guest.
Quoting AegirsGal:
GCC or GW is not political, it is scientific fact, and affects weather and weather patterns. It is therefore relevant to a WEATHER BLOG.


100% agree with you. But people on here will find a way to make it political.


Well, that escalated quickly. I'm guessing a upgrade at 5PM if it can get a little more organized.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Well, that escalated quickly. I'm guessing a upgrade at 5PM if it can get a little more organized.


It is amazing how quickly storms can for down there in the BOC. The curvature of the land really helps these systems spin up.
Quoting clwstmchasr:
Dr. Masters is a huge proponent of GW and as long as he makes it part of the blog, political discussions will not go away.
That may be true, but there's a huge world of difference between posting scientific evidence of climate change and pasting a skewed and error-filled CV of a political candidate.
1706. Msdrown
Quoting Patrap:


Complete Rumor...as the Levees are a federal Project, and they have very strict Laws and restrictions.

There are numerous types of Levee's, from I-wall, to Berm to others I cant recall.

But no,, the System was designed in 67,post Betsy and completed in the 70's and most of it failed at Cat 2 Levels...when the design called for cat 3.


The US has spent 14 Billion here in the Se La. area post K on improvements that are rated to Cat 3, but thats a relative thing I believe.




Pat, Unless I missunderstood your reply,, I was talking about the levies built post Betsy that failed the money was missallocated. I know they have done a great job after K.
1707. SLU
Quoting CybrTeddy:


It's been 5 years already since Dean? I remember following Dean just as closely as we are following 94L/TD7/Gordon now. What an incredible storm, just incredible. Only storm since that which was more impressive was Igor at peak.


Dean was an amazing storm. The GFS predicted it's development 2 weeks before it even emerged off Africa.
Quoting yoboi:


it's rated by storm surge not good to say it can withstand a cat 3, Ike had a storm surge as a cat 4 storm but was not rated a cat 4 at landfall....more people are killed by water in a hurricane than by wind...

Yeah I understand that. I guess the only way to find out if a system rated to withstand Cat 3 storm surge is for NOLA to be hit by a hurricane which brings cat 3 storm surge. I hope for NOLA and the Fed Govt sake, it holds up 100%. I'm guessing if anywhere did fail, the finger pointing and the blame game would start or the Fed Govt comes out and says, it was cat 4 storm surge.
.