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Common Thread at 2015 AGU Conference: The Big Melt

By: Bob Henson 11:20 PM GMT on December 18, 2015

The weather story of this month is the record warmth swaddling much of eastern North America and Europe. We’ll have much more to say about that next week, but keeping with the warm theme for today, I’ll share a couple of melt-related tidbits that drew my attention at this year’s Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union, which Jeff Masters and I attended this week. This is the world’s largest gathering of Earth-related scientists, with more than 20,000 researchers, journalists, and others in attendance. Thousands of posters and talks cover the whole spectrum of Earth sciences--at any one moment, there can be 50 or more presentations going on. Various science journalists and WunderBlog commentors have done a great job of capturing the broad array of science presented this week. You can browse the enormous number of abstracts at the meeting website. Many of the presentations were recorded and are now available through AGU On Demand (free registration is required). Here's a full list of those recorded sessions. (Thanks for WU member spbloom for the tip.] If the drip-drip-drip of climate change news starts getting to you, there’s a handy remedy: Jeff’s AGU post from Wednesday, “The Top Ten Reasons to be Hopeful on Climate Change”.

Lots of red on the Arctic Report Card
NOAA introduced its 2015 Arctic Report Card with a press conference on Tuesday, viewable in archive form (as are all of the press conferences). The Arctic’s grades were not good. Our northern polar regions are failing--that is, failing to shield themselves from the relentless build-up of greenhouse gases. The polar year running from October 2014 to September 2015 was the warmest in more than a century of recordkeeping, with the region now 3°C (5.4°F) warmer than it was at the start of the 20th century. The minimum summer extent of Arctic sea ice, which occurred on September 11, was not a record--it ranked fourth lowest in the satellite era (starting in 1979). However, the maximum winter extent did set a record low, and that occurred on February 25, two weeks ahead of average and the second earliest max in the satellite era.

One of the lesser-known but still profound changes to the Arctic is the decline in June snow cover, which is decreasing at around 18% per decade. Because the northern sun is at its strongest in June, this decline means that a good deal less sunlight is being reflected from polar regions, thus allowing more absorption of heat at the surface.



Figure 1. Top: Average temperature for October 2014-September 2015 compared to the 1981-2010 average. All around the Arctic, temperatures were much warmer than average, with only Greenland and a small part of northeastern Canada near or below average. Bottom: Annual temperatures for the Arctic (blue line, representing 60°N - 90°N) and the globe (black line) since 1900. Arctic temperatures are more variable from year to year than global temperatures (bigger swings above and below average). But despite the variability, a trend is clear: the Arctic has warmed more than the globe as a whole. Image credit: climate.gov.


Figure 2. Permafrost is thawing across the Arctic, causing northern lands to sink or change shape. In Gates of the Arctic National Park, a bank of this lake thawed in the summer of 2014, allowing the Okokmilaga River to cut through and drain it to sea. Researchers from the University of Alaska Fairbanks and the University of Colorado presented new work at the AGU Fall Meeting on the speeded-up pace of permafrost melt across northern Alaska. Image credit: Howcheng/US National Park Service/Wikimedia Commons.

More than polar bears at risk
Polar bears are the poster creatures of climate change, which makes it easy to overlook how warming temperatures might affect other Arctic creatures. These impacts can be difficult to pin down, because there are complicated intersections between human-driven warming and other anthropogenic factors, such as variations in hunting rates over time and the build-up of oil and gas infrastructure. An increase in rain-on-snow events over the Arctic is already having noteworthy impacts on reindeer, which forage for vegetation beneath snow cover during winter. A record number of reindeer (about 20% of a herd of 300,000) died in the winter of 2013-14 on the Yamal Peninsula of Western Siberia. A team led by Bruce Forbes (University of Lapland) described its post-event research in an AGU poster. “More than a year later, participatory fieldwork with nomadic herders during spring-summer 2015 revealed that the ecological and socio-economic impacts from this extreme event will unfold for years to come,” the group reported. They’re now investigating whether the loss of sea ice in the Barents and Kara Sea is playing a role in the growing prevalence of rain-on-snow events. “There is an urgent need to understand whether and how ongoing Barents and Kara Sea ice retreat may affect the region’s ancient and unique social-ecological systems.”

The state of Arctic walrus is analyzed in detail in this year’s Arctic Report Card. Sea ice is an integral part of walrus life: adults hang out and mate along the edges of pack ice in the winter, and mothers bear their young on ice in the spring. As sea ice retreats further from the shore of Chukchi Sea in late summer, walruses have been making dramatic “haulouts” over land, where young walrus are especially vulnerable to being trampled in the rush. An estimated 35,000 walruses clambered onto the coast at Point Lay, Alaska, in September 2014, and thousands more did the same in 2015. At the same time, some of the Arctic’s regional walrus populations have had a chance to rebuild their numbers in recent decades after years of largely unrestricted hunting. Walrus are at no immediate risk of extinction: there are at least 25,000 walruses in the high-latitude Atlantic, with many tens of thousands more in the Pacific. As sea ice continues to suffer, though, the concern is that the negative effects will put an increasing dent in walrus recovery. The Chuckchi Sea is now free of sea ice for about a month each year, but that may rise to several months later in this century.


Figure 3. A female walrus rests beside a yearling during a land-based “haulout” on September 19, 2013. The coastal walrus haulouts that form during periods of sea ice scarcity in the Chukchi Sea are composed primarily of adult female walruses and young, as well as some adult male walruses. Image credit: Ryan Kingsbery, USGS.

The big shift from snow to rain in Western mountains
Several posters examined the ongoing trend across the US West toward more winter rain and mixed-precipitation events and fewer all-snow events. Temperatures during winter and spring have warmed by roughly 2°C over the West since the 1950s. Michael Dettinger (USGS) extended prior work by others showing that most stations across the West are experiencing a larger fraction of their precipitation on days when no snow is reported. One of the best-instrumented locations in the West provides a closer look at this transition. More than three dozen precipitation stations with 55 years of data are scattered across the Reynolds Creek watershed of southwestern Idaho, which covers 93 square kilometers (about three times the size of Manhattan). Elevations vary from about 3000 to 6700 feet, so it’s easy for a winter storm to bring rain to lower elevations and snow to the higher terrain. Looking at the trends over the last three decades (1984 to 2014), Danny Marks (USDA) and colleagues found a doubling of the area in which most winter precipitation events arrived primarily as rain, and a halving of the area in which most of the events were primarily snow.

There will be far more rain than snow next week over the United States east of the Rockies, but one famously snowy city is on the verge of its first accumulation of the winter, which would fall atop green grass (see photo below). Buffalo, NY, received several hours of light snow on Friday afternoon, with a measurable amount possible before the evening is done. Update: Just before 7:00 pm EST Friday, Buffalo finally reported its first measurable snow of the season (0.1", the minimum amount that qualifies as measurable]. Prior to this year, the latest that Buffalo has seen its first 0.1” of snow for the winter was on December 3, 1899.

Steve Gregory has an update today on the long-range outlook beyond the impending holiday warmth. We’ll be back on Monday with a new post. In the meantime, have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob Henson



Climate Change Arctic Winter Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for the update and I am looking forward to hearing more reports from the conference. A couple videos would be cool too!

The grass around the snowboard in Buffalo could use a mowing, mine too...hurry up winter.

Thanks Doc for the informative read, as usual.

Thanks Doc

Sorry Bob, I apologize and appreciate your many fine articles as well.
18z run of GFS has another nor'easter too many days out to be taken too seriously.

I am nervous anyway.

Our central Florida friends are looking at a scattered shower signal followed by a dry signal in the same GFS run.
If the area in which most winter precipitation events were primarily rain doubled, and the area in which most winter precipitation events were primarily snow halved, then it must have switched from 2/3 of the area having mostly winter precipitation events that were primarily snow to 2/3 of the area having mostly winter precipitation events that were primarily rain.
Looks like minimum temperature records for December in the UK will be broken tonight. Usually meant to be around 1-3C at night throughout the UK as the minimum temperature overnight, but tonight temperatures look to be a good 10C+ above that, with some places possibly getting no lower than 13/14C. Crazy, that's more like a summer's night, not a mid December night!
Quoting 6. Envoirment:

Looks like minimum temperature records for December in the UK will be broken tonight. Usually meant to be around 1-3C at night throughout the UK as the minimum temperature overnight, but tonight temperatures look to be a good 10C+ above that, with some places possibly getting no lower than 13/14C. Crazy, that's more like a summer's night, not a mid December night!

Nationwide Dutch minimum temp record for December and winter DJF went (with a small margin) yesterday, as did main station de Bilt (1901). Small record compared to the way the month's average is shaping up.



(Likely) A major holiday weather crisis for Houston!
Please stand by.
Speaker starts 22 mins in .. every Floridian should watch this presentation.

Dr. Harold Wanless U of M


Quoting 9. Grothar:







It's nice to wear shorts instead of coats on Christmas Day, Grothar. But, as the graphic I posted below shows, we on the Upper Texas Coast may pay a horrible price for that.
Thanks Mr Henson
Just checked the forecast here on the space coast for next week Christmas Day. High around 80. My plastic snowman on the front lawn is going to melt! Geez, are we going to have winter this season?
Escape the heat all!.....Come to Soo Cal!
Looks like the first tropical cyclone of the Australian tropical cyclone season (November 1-April 30), could possibly develop in the Gulf of Carpentaria sometime next week. Some models like the HWRF and GFS support the idea. Here below is what the Australian BOM has to say about the possible invest sometime next week. Also I added a most recent satellite imagery of the area, and you can clearly see the monsoon trough starting to establish itself, in the Northern Region as it is expected to.

Tropical Cyclone Outlook-
There are no significant tropical lows in the region. The monsoon trough is expected to become established over the Northern Region during the weekend. As the monsoon becomes more active a low is expected to form over the Top End or Gulf of Carpentaria early next week.


Likelihood of a tropical cyclone in the Northern Region on:

Saturday:
Very Low.

Sunday:
Very Low.

Monday:
Low.

During next week if the low is in the Gulf of Carpentaria it has a reasonable chance of intensifying further.


The forecast high here in the Austin area is 80 degrees as well on Christmas. It reminds me of when I spent the holidays in Cape Town a few years ago. Southern hemisphere, Northern hemisphere, seasons, what? They are becoming a run on sentence these days :)

Quoting 13. hurricanewatcher61:

Just checked the forecast here on the space coast for next week Christmas Day. High around 80. My plastic snowman on the front lawn is going to melt! Geez, are we going to have winter this season?
Quoting 360. Neapolitan:



People vying to be President of the US also constitute "...a small subset of the real world". Yet only the dullest among us would pretend that "small subset" isn't an important one.

If you want to begin a rebuttal framed in the shop-worn politics of of presidential candidates then you have left the science behind. Good work! A subset all the same. No doubt, leadership will be one of the most important components to effect change and develop and promote workable plans. Plans that resonate with that 60%. Plans that promise energy security on the geopolitical front and at home. Altruistic motives are a worthy ideal. Unfortunately, plans that allow money to be made or saved offer the quickest route to change in our society. It won't happen fast enough without regulatory assistance at the Federal level. That's about the most I expect from the leadership. Create an environment that will allow the renewables and low-carbon markets to work. And of course, the distribution of the savings and revenue from those plans may not be evenly distributed among that 60%. Sorry.

Oh, I think I can now see where you've made your mistake...


You got me there. Very poor word choice.
"A perennial zombie-like" exchange of opinions between these two groups..."
Fixed.

Again, climate science, thousands of climate scientists, and Everest-sized mountains of data will not change the population (subset) of fossil-fuel billionaires and soiled politicians. The gullible voters; Let's call it that "40% minority" (which may work better than "simpletons" or "those lacking critical thinking skills") will respond to the same stimuli mentioned above.

Well, given that nearly every one of the aforementioned POTUS candidates is firmly in the 40% who say they're not worried, I'm not at all "...at a loss as to what can be or should be done". No, our marching orders are pretty clear: keep telling the truth, ignore the lukewarmists among us, continue correcting lies and ignorance, and shine a bright light on those who toil in the darkness to keep anything from happening. Just as ignoring climate change won't make it go away, neither will ignoring denialists silence their idiot ramblings.

No disagreement in telling the best truth science can give us. Ignoring the "lukewarm" is a mistake. Correcting lies and ignorance with science is noble work but science alone is not and has not been enough. Ignoring the "idiot ramblings" of denialists may allow some opportunity to consider economic, technological, and regulatory solutions that balance the carbon ledgerbook.

At least here at the comments level of this blog, the ineffective silencing of denial is deafening.
It is 9 degrees here in Siuox Falls, that is the coldest it has been this year. The Big Siuox River has not frozen and the ice fishing season is delayed. The wind will swing around to the south shortly. 9 is probably the low. We will see a high near freezing and highs later in the week above freezing. What little snow we have left will probably be go by Christmas.

I have been walking to work every day, it was 15 or so this morning. I was afraid my glasses would fog up and it would freeze, so far that has not happened. I have good cold wheat her clothes, including -40 Kamak boots, Carhart mittens and a Carhart coat and good under layer clothes including smart wool socks.

My biggest problems are my thumbs get cold, (The mittens have a thumb) and my face gets cold, but I am afraid to get it too covered because if I breathe wrong it will fog up my glasses. However, I am thinking tommorow I will by a nice Carhart hat and some glove liners.

If I don't end up with a glasses fogging problem, I should be good down to 5 above. The way this winter is shaping up, we might not see that very often. (For comparison, the winter of 2013/2014 we had many days in Fargo, Just a couple hundred miles north that had highs below zero.)

I will admit, the walk is only two miles, and there is a Hardee's about half way and I am not above stopping for a cup of coffee and a biscuit.

I still believe that we could see a lot more snow, so far we have had more this month than we had last year, but I was warned that would happen in a warm winter.

Cheers
Qazulight
Simply summed up it's the really elite rich/Big Oil (who cooked up the propaganda against AGW machine) staying in power minus regulation through really uninformed people who the really elite rich helped to be so very uninformed in regards to some vital truths scientifically and nationally. Maybe a Christmas card from this Oil and Money above all group stating, "Thanks for allowing us to make you all so stupid!" "We never could have imagined you Americans could be so very gullible!" "Thanks for voting our allies into Congress and allowing us to dictate political direction now too!"
Dear Deep Sea Rising:

I need you to do me a favor.

Would you please look at this NWS graphic and see if you can tell me who stands the best chance of getting the strongest, maybe even the most severe storms. Will it be the Houston Metro, Angleton, or Galveston. Give me your best guess.
It doesn't appear that this will be a severe event for that region. As it stands now, Storm Prediction Center has it more of a shower event becoming more widespread in the area Monday with a few showers possibly heavy and maybe a few claps of thunder. The jet is pretty far South so my guess is the energy will be more on the coast and those precip forecasts seem to look sound. Fingers crossed that the severe season is finally on hold in Texas until Spring. But hey, you know living in Texas, that a 10 percent chance of rain four days out sometimes means an arc may need to be built. :)

Quoting 20. pureet1948:

Dear Deep Sea Rising:

I need you to do me a favor.

Would you please look at this NWS graphic and see if you can tell me who stands the best chance of getting the strongest, maybe even the most severe storms. Will it be the Houston Metro, Angleton, or Galveston. Give me your best guess.
nice read

thanks





faster and faster
the process has begun
no stopping it
undo all
that has been done.


Thanks for the new post, Mr. Henson, Interesting read...
Quoting 1. wartsttocs:

Thanks for the update and I am looking forward to hearing more reports from the conference. A couple videos would be cool too!


Lots of videos listed here, although they're not all up yet. Presumably they will be by early in the week. The "AGU On Demand" link at the top of the page brings you to the registration page.

There's also a meeting app that can be used to favorite everything you're interested in, as there's far too much to keep track of otherwise.

The AGU Youtube channel Bob linked doesn't seem to have any of the actual sessions yet, but it does have all the press conferences and it looks like a few other things. Bob, if you could fix your link and perhaps add the other one to your post?
Quoting 6. Envoirment:

Looks like minimum temperature records for December in the UK will be broken tonight. Usually meant to be around 1-3C at night throughout the UK as the minimum temperature overnight, but tonight temperatures look to be a good 10C+ above that, with some places possibly getting no lower than 13/14C. Crazy, that's more like a summer's night, not a mid December night!


Yup, 5:50am and almost 60' here :( and that's the north west, not even down south! I haven't even turned any heating on yet anytime through fall or 'nearly' winter
Quoting 14. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Escape the heat all!.....Come to Soo Cal!



It is kinda funny though, my old friends in San Diego were complaining of the 'new norms' of it being and staying so hot...and now they're freezing and complaining :P But, for San Diego, and many close to the coast, def not normal. Although, neither is all the heat of late, I remember 1 year that was abnormally hot, even at the coast, and was the first time going into the water at the beach didn't chill me at first. Was very possibly 88'
Quoting 15. 882MB:

Looks like the first tropical cyclone of the Australian tropical cyclone season


second. (as far as I know, 01U was Raquel and recorded as part of the 2015-2016 season)
29. vis0
[humor]Look what ^sar2401 made me do[humor] its at zilly blog pg5 cmmnt#232 and ^Hydrus  i sort of replied (one of the last comments on Dr. Masters previous blogbyte "November 2015: Earth's Warmest November and...") to your last blogs comment as to the Ocean already responding to aGW imbalances.
30. vis0

Quoting 4. wartsttocs:

18z run of GFS has another nor'easter too many days out to be taken too seriously.

I am nervous anyway.

Our central Florida friends are looking at a scattered shower signal followed by a dry signal in the same GFS run.
my reply at my zilly pg5 cmmnt#235
on the north florida homefront, our crews did not begin wearing waders for sampling until december. usually we begin wearing waders in late october. but it remained warm and sunny with water temps in the low 70's for quite awhile. when the water temps finally reached into the 60's. an overcast day with a chilly breeze impelled us to put those waders on and enter winter sampling of fishes.. the snook are still around, as are the redfish, trout, sheepshead, and all the baitfish! the ducks have finally arrived along with the white pelicans, but have not spotted any loons.. and the roseate spoonbills are still swishing through the low tides.
Quoting 18. Qazulight:

It is 9 degrees here in Siuox Falls, that is the coldest it has been this year. The Big Siuox River has not frozen and the ice fishing season is delayed. The wind will swing around to the south shortly. 9 is probably the low. We will see a high near freezing and highs later in the week above freezing. What little snow we have left will probably be go by Christmas.

I have been walking to work every day, it was 15 or so this morning. I was afraid my glasses would fog up and it would freeze, so far that has not happened. I have good cold wheat her clothes, including -40 Kamak boots, Carhart mittens and a Carhart coat and good under layer clothes including smart wool socks.

My biggest problems are my thumbs get cold, (The mittens have a thumb) and my face gets cold, but I am afraid to get it too covered because if I breathe wrong it will fog up my glasses. However, I am thinking tommorow I will by a nice Carhart hat and some glove liners.

If I don't end up with a glasses fogging problem, I should be good down to 5 above. The way this winter is shaping up, we might not see that very often. (For comparison, the winter of 2013/2014 we had many days in Fargo, Just a couple hundred miles north that had highs below zero.)

I will admit, the walk is only two miles, and there is a Hardee's about half way and I am not above stopping for a cup of coffee and a biscuit.

I still believe that we could see a lot more snow, so far we have had more this month than we had last year, but I was warned that would happen in a warm winter.

Cheers
Qazulight



Well the weather man was wrong. The south wind didn't pick up until this morning and the temperature here made it to 3 degrees. It was exciting enough to pop open eye and watch the thermometer once every couple of hours. Early, a little before sunlight I thought there was a chance for our first negative day, but alas, the south wind picked up.

It is amazing how much information about the weather I can get sitting in my easy chair and watching the flag. (I have. A 4th floor apartment over looking the grounds and parking lots of the complex.) Of course, I doesn't hurt that I have an IPad with the WU app. :)
forgot to add, it was 39F this morning at 06:00 in rocky hammock, north florida, with a stiff north breeze.. perfect for drying clothes! we got 2.3" of rain on thursday when the front came through! the chickens are still laying and there's new lambs in the barn. merry Christmas to all!
Euro keeps strengthening this bit by bit..








Quoting

10. Patrap
1:30 AM GMT on December 19, 2015
10 +
Speaker starts 22 mins in .. every Floridian should watch this presentation.

Dr. Harold Wanless U of M

The people of earth could use the technology in the unacknowledged special access programs to counter CO2 emissions. Such use might be considered a giant leap for man and a small step for mankind. For the uninitiated, please Google Dr. Steven Greer to begin...

Folks, you may need this technology to escape southern Florida in a few years...
Dr. Gregg Postel who nailed the Dec North America forecast (cold west, hot east and south) says there are strong signals that this pattern will continue well into January. I still think that jet stream patterns are very different than we've seen before in the other strong el nino seasons. For Central Fl, so far we're at an epic miss compared to '97.
CFS has a blizzard like storm for the Mid South..



Quoting 36. Bucsboltsfan:

Dr. Gregg Postel who nailed the Dec North America forecast (cold west, hot east and south) says there are strong signals that this pattern will continue well into January. I still think that jet stream patterns are very different than we've seen before in the other strong el nino seasons. For Central Fl, so far we're at an epic miss compared to '97.
It might, but it will be much stormier.
Quoting 34. hydrus:

Euro keeps strengthening this bit by bit..




Quoting 39. ILwthrfan:




To much wind and severe weather.. Can you pull it north a bit.? ..tia..
New experimental product from NWS WPC...
Experimental WPC Day 4-7 Winter Weather Outlook
47F here in the northern Orlando area this morning after a much needed 0.4" of rain yesterday. I couldn't stand another day of 80F temperatures.

As an aside, the effects of urban heat islands fascinate me (as many who have seen my posts know). New York City (Central Park) has now gone 8 months and 25 days since the last freeze (below 32F) on March 29th this year. If it doesn't get just below freezing tonight, it should easily make that 9+ months between freezes, which is really remarkable for any area so far north. This technical "growing season" is undoubtedly longer than usual, even compared with recent years. Even so, New York City's average growing season length is comparable to some areas of the Florida panhandle, but that is where the climatic similarities end.
Quoting 35. 1982ExxonPrimate:








Quoting

10. Patrap
1:30 AM GMT on December 19, 2015
10
Speaker starts 22 mins in .. every Floridian should watch this presentation.

Dr. Harold Wanless U of M

The people of earth could use the technology in the unacknowledged special access programs to counter CO2 emissions. Such use might be considered a giant leap for man and a small step for mankind. For the uninitiated, please Google Dr. Steven Greer to begin...

Folks, you may need this technology to escape southern Florida in a few years...


Please, Stephen Greer of the Disclosure Project I assume your referencing.

The only reason I acknowledge that is I have a letter written from Him in the early 90's. I gave them info as to what we saw in 84' in Norway with NATO.

Thats all I can say on dat.


Science news: an earth animal that can LIVE in Outer Space....................Link
Quoting 44. LargoFl:

Science news: an earth animal that can LIVE in Outer Space....................Link


Transpermia in theory has been around for quite some time now.
This is my statement that I believe carries much weight. We humor on it here. Fox news is leading over 150 fifty million Americans to support the one percent's agenda. They welcome all loss of Constitutional rights except gun ownership, mock our climate changing right in front of their eyes, support Big Oil, and are playing into the agenda of the one percent. The hour is now late, we need a leader who can change this projection or our children are doomed. Merry Christmas.
woooosh and weeeeee'



New Research: the Earth's tilt and Climate Change.....................Link
Just 2 more days until Winter officially begins.
How is it, in America, we have a News channel that carries more political weight than either party? Is allowed to spread lies and propaganda as some universal truth? And last, but not least, lead half of America astray to support some agenda of greed and more war? I say it stops today. May truth always ring eternal.
AGU 2015: Scientists react to Paris agreement on climate change

With the ink only just dry on the agreement signed in Paris to curb global carbon emissions, scientists at this year’s American Geophysical Union conference in San Francisco have been reacting to the landmark deal and digesting some of the finer details.

Here are a few scientists Carbon Brief found at the conference to share their thoughts on what the Paris agreement means and where the world goes from here.

List of scientists and links at Carbon Brief...
Hi all, quite exhausted I'm back from some family related pre-christmas trip and trying to catch up with the latest blogs. Thanks for the new entries!

Here some fresh charts from "deeply frozen" Europe (bwahahah); saw some booths with false fur hats and warm knitwear at a nice Christmas market elsewhere, which weren't, ehm, that popular this year (poor lonely vendors!) ...


As it has been mentioned before, especially in the UK some stations probably broke their old December record today. But it was very very balmy elsewhere in Europe too (or even summerlike in the southwest) .


Source. Temperature anomalies in Germany in 2015 so far. Lots of red, no? Hope you can spot the latest spike in December (if not, click the chart to enlarge). That's where we're in right now.

Pic shows that November had been very warm as well. In fact, as our National Weather Service said, it was by far the warmest November for Germany since records began. As I've missed Doc's blog earlier about the worldwide record for November this year, I may belatedly add the map now:



You'll have to travel far, far north in Europe to find some wild winter weather right now ... see my next post ...

Currently - for many weeks already, and it won't change the next days - all the storms over the North Atlantic are deflected by the stubborn high over Europe and are headed to the Greenland Sea or Barents Sea. In between there is the remote Norwegian Svalbard /Spitsbergen archipelago (around 2600 inhabitants) which got a very bad hit by an exceptional strong blizzard a day ago which unfortunately caused a deadly avalanche today.



Avalanche hits Norway's remote Svalbard archipelago; authorities say 1 dead, 9 injured
By JAN M. OLSEN Associated Press, December 19, 2015 - 10:55am
COPENHAGEN, Denmark - An avalanche smashed into at least 10 houses Saturday on the remote Arctic archipelago of Svalbard, killing one man and sending nine other people to the hospital, authorities said.
Tons of snow tumbled down about 11 a.m. Saturday from Sukkertoppen mountain, which dominates Longyearbyen, the main settlement on Svalbard.
About 100 emergency workers and volunteers rushed to the scene, some with search dogs and head lamps, to look for victims. Using shovels or excavators mounted with powerful lamps that lit up the Arctic darkness, they frantically dug in the meters (yards)-deep snow that surrounded the houses.
During the winter, the remote archipelago plunges into Arctic darkness and the sun does not show above the horizon from late November to mid-February. ...
The avalanche hit a day after a huge storm that the local paper called the worst in 30 years, with winds up to 95 kph (60 mph). Hertzberg said "it would be logical" to assume the avalanche was connected to the storm late Friday. ...

More see link above.




Map for last night.

From a Spitsbergen/Svalbard-Blog:
Heaviest storm in Longyearbyen in 30 years: houses damaged by avalanche

And this was their last entry earlier:
Svalbard ice free: pregnant female polar bears can't access denning areas
Quoting 53. barbamz:



Blocking high redirecting storms further north... seems very familiar. I hope that pattern changes soon, because that's definitely no fun.
Quoting 54. TimSoCal:


Blocking high redirecting storms further north... seems very familiar. I hope that pattern changes soon, because that's definitely no fun.

Yeah, you are still waiting for the promised El Nino rains, no? Maybe the real El Nino will deliver some on his birthday?


Precipitation on Dec 25.
Quoting 50. DeepSeaRising:

How is it, in America, we have a News channel that carries more political weight than either party? Is allowed to spread lies and propaganda as some universal truth? And last, but not least, lead half of America astray to support some agenda of greed and more war? I say it stops today. May truth always ring eternal.


Good question maybe because we have FREE SPEECH and FREE PRESS...if not MSNBC would have to be the first to go because they are the most biased media on the planet Earth with an agenda...
I know beggars can't be choosy, but I am kinda getting tired of these piss ant little wannabe storms. Hope Nor Cal gets a lot more!

Quoting 50. DeepSeaRising:

How is it, in America, we have a News channel that carries more political weight than either party? Is allowed to spread lies and propaganda as some universal truth? And last, but not least, lead half of America astray to support some agenda of greed and more war? I say it stops today. May truth always ring eternal.
You're kidding me, right? There are multiple, and each are geared to appeal to a particular audience. News channels now are about delivering commentary rather than strict reporting of the news.

On a different note, Hooray for Qazulight !!!! Always good to get that guy back on the blog!
Quoting 48. LargoFl:

New Research: the Earth's tilt and Climate Change.....................Link


The title is a little misleading. It's been well known for quite some time that axial and orbital variations influence the Earth's climate. This research looks at one particular feature of that (namely the ITCZ) and helps quantify the impacts axial tilt.

Intuitively, it makes sense that the ITCZ would change in relation to the axial tilt. The work done in this research establishes some bounds for this. It also revealed that not only does the ITCZ move, but it also expands and contracts (which is what I find most interesting about it).

This will give more insight into the paleoclimate record. But the cycle is 41,000 years, so we're talking fairly long time scales.
Quoting 58. Llamaluvr:

You're kidding me, right? There are multiple, and each are geared to appeal to a particular audience. News channels now are about delivering commentary rather than strict reporting of the news.

On a different note, Hooray for Qazulight !!!! Always good to get that guy back on the blog!


So, sure, we've divided America perfectly in half with opinion to truth. What's the worst that could happen? Nothing gets done and the status quo remains just that. And we hurl towards the culling to come while the profits keep rolling in. All the while millions are refuges now, tens of millions, and this is just the beginning. Faster and faster now.
Quoting 55. barbamz:


Yeah, you are still waiting for the promised El Nino rains, no? Maybe the real El Nino will deliver some on his birthday?


Precipitation on Dec 25.


ECMWF and GFS trending drier for San Diego for the 24th-25th storm. Still saying it is possible to get some rain.......we will see.
Quoting 46. DeepSeaRising:

This is my statement that I believe carries much weight. We humor on it here. Fox news is leading over 150 fifty million Americans to support the one percent's agenda. They welcome all loss of Constitutional rights except gun ownership, mock our climate changing right in front of their eyes, support Big Oil, and are playing into the agenda of the one percent. The hour is now late, we need a leader who can change this projection or our children are doomed. Merry Christmas.
Who would you suggest that leader be?
Quoting 56. outrocket:



Good question maybe because we have FREE SPEECH and FREE PRESS...if not MSNBC would have to be the first to go because they are the most biased media on the planet Earth with an agenda...


And I would admit that if you would say that the 3 letter media that spells an animal name ( FOX ) is a very close 2nd!
Quoting 63. Kenfa03:

Who would you suggest that leader be?


Are you aiming at humor, this story runs right to the core of truth and profit. Anyone will a bend towards truth can answer this question. Problem is, it's a big question with more than one last name at the end of the profit at the price of humanity answer. To be surrounded by a million other people, yet feel alone like a tree in the desert.............such is the burden of truth in America today. It's in such a short supply. The stakes never higher.
Quoting 64. HurricaneHunterJoe:



And I would admit that if you would say that the 3 letter media that spells an animal name ( FOX ) is a very close 2nd!


Ok I'll see ya one FOX for One CNN as third....:)
That Graphic isn't very generous JOE. showing .09 for up here. No Surprise there, lest you live in the hills you don't get squat. Most of it is North and east....
Philippines storm death toll hits 35 as rains threaten to worsen flooding
President declares 'national calamity' as nation struggles to recover from typhoons Melor and Koppu
The Guardian, Agence France-Presse, Saturday 19 December 2015 05.55 GMT
Heavy rains pummelled the whole of the Philippines on Saturday, threatening to aggravate flooding that has prompted the government to declare a state of "national calamity".
The death toll after a week of devastating weather has risen to 35, according to confirmed reports from national and local disaster monitoring agencies.
A tropical depression that has weakened into a low pressure area brought rains to the central Visayas islands and Mindanao, the main southern island, according to the government weather station.
Cold monsoon winds blowing from the north-east brought rains to Luzon, the main northern island, where large farming communities have been submerged in mostly waist-deep floods from typhoon Melor, which hit at the start of the week.
Areas inundated by Melor have barely recovered from floods brought by typhoon Koppu in October.
"Almost the entire Philippines is experiencing rains. More floods are possible," state weather forecaster Robert Badrina said on Saturday. "We expect the rains to peak today. The weather will start to improve tomorrow." ....
Quoting 64. HurricaneHunterJoe:



And I would admit that if you would say that the 3 letter media that spells an animal name ( FOX ) is a very close 2nd!


And there's the response those with all the power look for. MSNBC is just as bad if not worse. So be it. You know what never changes? The truth. We are an MSNBC and FOX divided nation. They are polar opposites. Half of America follows each. We are sheep, have gone through the gate, and now stand in pasture with absolutely no power. We are divided so.
Quoting 68. PedleyCA:

That Graphic isn't very generous JOE. showing .09 for up here. No Surprise there, lest you live in the hills you don't get squat. Most of it is North and east....


I'm just the messenger....do not shoot me

previous post below.....lol


I know beggars can't be choosy, but I am kinda getting tired of these piss ant little wannabe storms. Hope Nor Cal gets a lot more!

Quoting 70. DeepSeaRising:



And there's the response those with all the power look for. MSNBC is just as bad if not worse. So be it. You know what never changes? The truth. We are an MSNBC and FOX divided nation. They are polar opposites. Half of America follows each. We are sheep, have gone through the gate, and now stand in pasture with absolutely no power. We are divided so.


I AM NOT A SHEEP!
Some more impressive pics of the Svalbard blizzard and the avalanche aftermath (see post #53)

Here (twitter). According to this tweet winds were up to 150kmh=93mph.

And here (including some videos):
Apocalyptical snow storm and avalanche engulf Longyearbyen, Svalbard at the end of the world

More news from Europe's arctic zone:
Far above Sweden's Arctic Circle, a ski resort hosts refugees
Reuters, Sat Dec 19, 2015 4:30am EST
Quoting 70. DeepSeaRising:



And there's the response those with all the power look for. MSNBC is just as bad if not worse. So be it. You know what never changes? The truth. We are an MSNBC and FOX divided nation. They are polar opposites. Half of America follows each. We are sheep, have gone through the gate, and now stand in pasture with absolutely no power. We are divided so.


yep divided by principals not media...

if media then fox is toast as there is only one conservative channel that goes against MSNBC,CNN,NBC,ABC,CBS if the country was divided by media then it would be 17.66% conservative and 83.3% liberal...

I am no sheep either.....looks like many are not sheep or the media would have killed off conservatives long ago....
Quoting 56. outrocket:



Good question maybe because we have FREE SPEECH and FREE PRESS...if not MSNBC would have to be the first to go because they are the most biased media on the planet Earth with an agenda...


[citation needed]

If anything Fox and MSNBC are tied for bias, with CNN trying to make a drone powered 3D hologram of them squaring off in a virtual boxing ring.

But Fox wins the objective stupidity contest hands down. Their promotion of their anti-science/anti-intelligence agenda makes them one of the worst possible places to go for objective information outside of tabloid rags. Some days I'm half expecting a story like BaltimoreBrian's Bat Boy to pop up on their channel.
Quoting 75. outrocket:



yep divided by principals not media...

if media then fox is toast as there is only one conservative channel that goes against MSNBC,CNN,NBC,ABC,CBS if the country was divided by media then it would be 17.66% conservative and 83.3% liberal...

I am no sheep either.....looks like many are not sheep or the media would have killed off conservatives long ago....


Reality has a well known liberal bias.

I suppose if all you watch is Fox, then yeah pretty much everything would seem ultra liberal by comparison. But then again, pretty much everything would.
Quoting 74. barbamz:

Some more impressive pics of the Svalbard blizzard and the avalanche aftermath (see post #53)

Here (twitter). According to this tweet winds were up to 150kmh=93mph.

And here (including some videos):
Apocalyptical snow storm and avalanche engulf Longyearbyen, Svalbard at the end of the world


It seems like all of North America's winter weather was wrapped into a ball and dropped at the top of the world. If the current pattern doesn't break they be in for more. :(
Quoting 77. Xyrus2000:



Reality has a well known liberal bias.

I suppose if all you watch is Fox, then yeah pretty much everything would seem ultra liberal by comparison. But then again, pretty much everything would.


how far would science advance if the bias was reversed and there was only one liberal channel and 80% took fox's views? That's the bigger question. My question would be with 80% of the media favoring one side why cant they advance their views???
Quoting 72. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I AM NOT A SHEEP!


Indeed, was not implying you were. You and I have been here long enough to know you get it fully. When I think about a country of 300 plus million divided so perfectly down the middle, I think about an agenda that is so brilliantly diabolic, that we find ourselves currently helpless to do anything about it. The people find themselves with no power. All power is consolidated. We remain entertained.
Quoting 42. HurrMichaelOrl:

47F here in the northern Orlando area this morning after a much needed 0.4" of rain yesterday. I couldn't stand another day of 80F temperatures.

As an aside, the effects of urban heat islands fascinate me (as many who have seen my posts know). New York City (Central Park) has now gone 8 months and 25 days since the last freeze (below 32F) on March 29th this year. If it doesn't get just below freezing tonight, it should easily make that 9+ months between freezes, which is really remarkable for any area so far north. This technical "growing season" is undoubtedly longer than usual, even compared with recent years. Even so, New York City's average growing season length is comparable to some areas of the Florida panhandle, but that is where the climatic similarities end.


DCA had no freeze after February 28 in Spring 2010. There have been years with no freeze until December also.. don't remember if that also happened in 2010.

I still think if we get fire ants in DC, the first mound will be under the DCA sensor :-)
First time this winter I will have to protect my Citrus. They'll go on my open porch rather than in the backyard with sky exposure. Next step is detached unheated garage and if it gets bitter I turn the supplementary heater on in the garage. Only a few days a winter I need garage heat some winters.
Quoting 78. Xyrus2000:


It seems like all of North America's winter weather was wrapped into a ball and dropped at the top of the world. If the current pattern doesn't break they be in for more. :(

Sure, although temperature anomalies currently are too warm in Svalbard Islands as well (looks like the real cold air is in eastern Siberia right now):


Temperature anomalies in Europe tomorrow.


Here a pic of the current trough in the eastern North Atlantic between two highs.

And here a live blog of UK's/Europe's weird weather (very bad time for ski resorts in the Alps! Barely any snow available, and it's even too warm in most regions to produce artificial snow) :

UK weather: Balmy Britain basks in record December temperatures as Christmas exodus begins - live
Record high temperatures could trigger nationwide downpours, threatening traffic misery for the millions of families attempting to getaway for Christmas - latest updates

But I guess the upcoming weather frency in the eastern US during the holidays will top everthing else soon ;-) There are some very slight hints that weather patterns may change a little in Europe at the end of the year. But it's too early to tell.

Other news:
Schools close under blanket of smog in Iranian capital
Source: Reuters - Sat, 19 Dec 2015 14:06 GMT

I'm out. Have a nice evening, guys!
Quoting 25. spbloom:

Lots of videos listed here, although they're not all up yet. Presumably they will be by early in the week. The "AGU On Demand" link at the top of the page brings you to the registration page.

There's also a meeting app that can be used to favorite everything you're interested in, as there's far too much to keep track of otherwise.

The AGU Youtube channel Bob linked doesn't seem to have any of the actual sessions yet, but it does have all the press conferences and it looks like a few other things. Bob, if you could fix your link and perhaps add the other one to your post?


Done! Thanks for the tip, sp....
9.5" of rain in Acme, wa for Dec. so far, only 1 day with no precip. Mt. Baker ski area boasting that they have 135" base. Some nice pics on their snow report page. Link
Quoting 76. Xyrus2000:



[citation needed]

If anything Fox and MSNBC are tied for bias, with CNN trying to make a drone powered 3D hologram of them squaring off in a virtual boxing ring.

But Fox wins the objective stupidity contest hands down. Their promotion of their anti-science/anti-intelligence agenda makes them one of the worst possible places to go for objective information outside of tabloid rags. Some days I'm half expecting a story like BaltimoreBrian's Bat Boy to pop up on their channel.
Fox news reminds me of those half hour infomercials ones sees in the wee hours, just that fox has more glam, hype, and BS.
Quoting 77. Xyrus2000:



Reality has a well known liberal bias.

I suppose if all you watch is Fox, then yeah pretty much everything would seem ultra liberal by comparison. But then again, pretty much everything would.
Yep.... Thats why some people do not like liberals, especially the extreme right..Because it lacks coercion.

Being a liberal individual is being protected from tyranny and the arbitrary exercise of authority.

"Freedom of nature is to be under no other restraint but the law of nature. Freedom of people under government is to be under no restraint apart from standing rules to live by that are common to everyone in the society and made by the lawmaking power established in it. Persons have a right or liberty to (1) follow their own will in all things that the law has not prohibited and (2) not be subject to the inconstant, uncertain, unknown, and arbitrary wills of others.

Excerpt from john Locke.
From our local Mets here in TN...They seem to favor a large shift in the U.S. pattern..

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
117 PM CST SAT DEC 19 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED
NEAR THE MS/AL BORDER WITH CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR COVERING MIDDLE
TENNESSEE. SURFACE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE MID STATE
OVERNIGHT, SETTING UP WARMER TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY AND
INCREASING DEW POINTS BEGINNING SUNDAY NIGHT. A DEVELOPING STORM
SYSTEM WILL COME TOGETHER OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS TOMORROW AND
TOMORROW NIGHT, WITH A COLD FRONT COMING THROUGH ON MONDAY AND
STALLING OUR JUST TO OUR EAST. THIS WILL USHER IN A DAYS-LONG WET
PATTERN FOR MIDDLE TENNESSEE. A SHORTWAVE WILL THEN SET UP TO OUR
WEST, KEEPING US UNDER A SW`LY FLOW ALOFT AND ALLOWING FOR A
SERIES OF IMPULSES TO COME THROUGH THE MID STATE THROUGH THE END
OF THE 7-DAY FORECAST PERIOD. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER
AGREEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A MASSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
THAT WOULD SIGNAL A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT. UNTIL THEN, LOOK
FOR PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.
I am dreaming of a 30F anomaly Christmas!


Speaking of liberalism, there's a Democratic debate tonight at 8pm ET on ABC. I know it might be hard to remember since it was scheduled the Saturday night before Christmas...on the first weekend following the release of Star Wars: The Force Awakens...on the same night as an NFL game. But don't worry, I'm sure the DNC scheduled that in fair consideration of each campaign instead of trying to tilt the power in one direction... ;)
Saw snow flakes yeterday for the first time and a very thin layer on my car earlier this morning.
Quoting 91. washingtonian115:

Saw snow flakes yeterday for the first time and a very thin layer on my car earlier this morning.
Hello Wash...Had some here too.
From the Miami NWS Disco....Happy 4th of July from south Florida!...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
WELL NORTH OF REGION /OH AND TN VLYS/ TUESDAY...DRAWING UP DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO FLORIDA AND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.
THEREAFTER...ONLY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABV NRML...POSSIBLY RECORD
BREAKING. AVERAGE MAXIMA WILL BE 80S WITH MINIMA MAINLY IN 70S AS
ABNORMALLY POWERFUL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ENTRENCHED.

Link
Good evening everybody!

It's been a while since I last posted but the Xmas season is upon us and my life has been involved in making Santa Claus magically appear for many children in numerous homes who wouldn't see a gift if it weren't for the group of gal pals I have that make it happen! The families we have found (through recommendations from churches, friends, and acquaintances) can make their rent, utilities and food but there isn't anything left at the end of the month.....and that's where we kick in. There will be presents, a week's worth of food or more, and gift certificates to grocery stores to last them a little while afterwards. Just had our final meeting tonight and deliveries start tomorrow afternoon.

So anyway, it's a beautiful, clear 79, feeling like 79 kind of evening on the island tonight.

I do hope all is well with y'all!

Lindy
Did I break the blog?
Scarred Riverbeds and Dead Pistachio Trees in a Parched Iran

Afghanistan made it through three years of drought before it started to fall apart.
Syria made it through four years.

Iran has now experienced 7 consecutive years of drought, and it has almost four times the population of Syria and ten times the area. What could possibly go wrong?
Quoting 91. washingtonian115:

Saw snow flakes yeterday for the first time and a very thin layer on my car earlier this morning.


Absolutely none here except the paper ones I'll be cutting out on Xmas morning.....
Quoting 90. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Speaking of liberalism, there's a Democratic debate tonight at 8pm ET on ABC. I know it might be hard to remember since it was scheduled the Saturday night before Christmas...on the first weekend following the release of Star Wars: The Force Awakens...on the same night as an NFL game. But don't worry, I'm sure the DNC scheduled that in fair consideration of each campaign instead of trying to tilt the power in one direction... ;)
LOL. Considering that the probability of one candidate already having a lock on the nomination is about the same as snow at some point this winter in Cleveland, It's pretty hard to work up a lot of interest in the Democratic debates, such as they are. The only thing of real interest is if Bernie will run yet another independent campaign when he is inevitably denied the nomination.
Quoting 95. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Did I break the blog?
No, that will happen tomorrow night about 10:00 pm CST. :-)
Quoting 98. sar2401:

LOL. Considering that the probability of one candidate already having a lock on the nomination is about the same as snow at some point this winter in Cleveland, It's pretty hard to work up a lot of interest in the Democratic debates, such as they are. The only thing of real interest is if Bernie will run yet another independent campaign when he is inevitably denied the nomination.
It's no accident that the debate is tonight when viewership is sure to be very low. HRC's poll numbers go down whenever she speaks. Notice how quiet and out of the news she's been? Since when has there ever been a major presidential candidate who has been as quiet and out of the news as she?
Quoting 90. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Speaking of liberalism, there's a Democratic debate tonight at 8pm ET on ABC. I know it might be hard to remember since it was scheduled the Saturday night before Christmas...on the first weekend following the release of Star Wars: The Force Awakens...on the same night as an NFL game. But don't worry, I'm sure the DNC scheduled that in fair consideration of each campaign instead of trying to tilt the power in one direction... ;)


Why would someone want to watch a DNC debate when Star Wars is out, and the holiday's are here? I guess some people suffer from self loathing :)
Never

Quoting 95. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Did I break the blog?
next yr la nina! time for a active atlantic and time for the earth to cool down
Quoting 79. outrocket:



how far would science advance if the bias was reversed and there was only one liberal channel and 80% took fox's views? That's the bigger question.


No it isn't. If 80% took Fox's view there wouldn't be a liberal channel because drones would have leveled the place for being a "hive of Anti-American terrorists" or something.

My question would be with 80% of the media favoring one side why cant they advance their views???


Because you're bias is getting in the way. What Fox calls liberal and what the rest of the world calls liberal are very different. The US, overall, would be considered right of center (and that includes most news networks). Fox is hard right (some of my European colleagues consider them extreme right/neo-fascist).

We don't really do "left" in the US. We've always been kind of middle of the road. But when your standing over in Fox's crazy zone even the Sacred Reagan is bleeding heart liberal. :P

Quoting 87. hydrus:

Yep.... Thats why some people do not like liberals, especially the extreme right..Because it lacks coercion.

Being a liberal individual is being protected from tyranny and the arbitrary exercise of authority.

"Freedom of nature is to be under no other restraint but the law of nature. Freedom of people under government is to be under no restraint apart from standing rules to live by that are common to everyone in the society and made by the lawmaking power established in it. Persons have a right or liberty to (1) follow their own will in all things that the law has not prohibited and (2) not be subject to the inconstant, uncertain, unknown, and arbitrary wills of others.

Excerpt from john Locke.


I'm not sure today's liberalism has anything to do with liberty, I see increasingly more support of removal of liberty and essential rights among liberals, even more than the Republicans. I suppose that makes me a "conservative liberal" as oxymoron as that may seem.

Though I think there are still lovers of essential human rights and liberties left in both the Democrat Part and the Republican Party, but the dominating power seems to have left those voices in the minority influence in government.
Quoting 96. BaltimoreBrian:

Scarred Riverbeds and Dead Pistachio Trees in a Parched Iran

Afghanistan made it through three years of drought before it started to fall apart.
Syria made it through four years.

Iran has now experienced 7 consecutive years of drought, and it has almost four times the population of Syria and ten times the area. What could possibly go wrong?
Now that Iran has been rehabilitated and can sell oil again, things might improve if they stop spending a significant amount of their foreign reserves to develop missiles and nuclear weapons, stop subsidizing the cost of water, and spend part of their new found revenue to fix their collapsing water systems and stop polluting what they have. Sometimes drought is not the biggest problem.
Quoting 86. hydrus:

Fox news reminds me of those half hour infomercials ones sees in the wee hours, just that fox has more glam, hype, and BS.


Fox really is an entertainment channel. There are both left and right bias media, and both pander to each groups, though the left ones seem more serious about their agenda, while the right ones like Fox news, feel more like an entertainment network than a media source.

I do still watch Fox news every now and then, just for fun :)
BTW I received a much needed 0.84 here in the Tampa Bay area yesterday with the front and am enjoying the cool spell. If only it were to last more than a few days. Darn progressive cool highs and stubborn subtropical upper ridging means a soon end to this nice stuff :(
Quoting 100. PensacolaDoug:

It's no accident that the debate is tonight when viewership is sure to be very low. HRC's poll numbers go down whenever she speaks. Notice how quiet and out of the news she's been? Since when has there ever been a major presidential candidate who has been as quiet and out of the news as she?

It's hard to compete with a circular firing squad.
Quoting 100. PensacolaDoug:

It's no accident that the debate is tonight when viewership is sure to be very low. HRC's poll numbers go down whenever she speaks. Notice how quiet and out of the news she's been? Since when has there ever been a major presidential candidate who has been as quiet and out of the news as she?
I believe the DNC scheduled the debates when they did because they knew it wouldn't have any affect on the nomination one way or the other. They have had a rude shock with Bernie so far, but they'll marginalize him further as we get to the primaries. Considering her legal problems and demonstrated lack of debating skills, Hillary is being very wise to lay low and let the Republicans duke it out.
Quoting 6. Envoirment:

Looks like minimum temperature records for December in the UK will be broken tonight. Usually meant to be around 1-3C at night throughout the UK as the minimum temperature overnight, but tonight temperatures look to be a good 10C+ above that, with some places possibly getting no lower than 13/14C. Crazy, that's more like a summer's night, not a mid December night!
That is something that I have wondered about for a long time, have the night time low temperatures been increasing at a faster rate than the daytime high temperatures? Does anyone know of any research about that topic?
Quoting 107. Jedkins01:



Fox really is an entertainment channel. There are both left and right bias media, and both pander to each groups, though the left ones seem more serious about their agenda, while the right ones like Fox news, feel more like an entertainment network than a media source.

I do still watch Fox news every now and then, just for fun :)
If there is one truth about fox news, there are some foxy ladies that work there...Is it still warm and wet in Florida.?...:)
Quoting 107. Jedkins01:



Fox really is an entertainment channel. There are both left and right bias media, and both pander to each groups, though the left ones seem more serious about their agenda, while the right ones like Fox news, feel more like an entertainment network than a media source.

I do still watch Fox news every now and then, just for fun :)
According to the Pew Research Center, which claims to know about such matters, there are things a lot more scary than Fox News to me. Among the millennials, which would be you and everyone else between 18 and 33, their main (60%) source of political news is....Facebook....and Twitter, for cripes sake. Millennials don't watch TV news hardly at all, only use newspapers, if they have ever seen any, to line bird cages, and only 26% say politics and government are in their top three interests out of nine that were listed, including Star Wars and GTA 5. Okay, I lied about the last two, but you get my point. The highest rated show on Fox is Bill O'Reilly, who has about six million viewers on a good night. Monday Night Football has about seventeen million. Fox News is regularly beaten in the ratings by such intellectual offerings as The Family Channel and the Hallmark Movie of the Month. When the age group that should be most concerned about climate changes displays very little interest in government and politics in general, and gets most of its news from Facebook and other social media, I'm not all worried about Fox. I did find out I have migrated to a new demographic, however, unbeknownst to me. I'm now a member of the "Silent Generation" (I've heard that one before) and we didn't even get included in the poll, since it's only me and five other people between 69 to 142 who ever use the internet. The rest apparently spend a lot of time looking at assisted living facilities and going to the doctor.
Quoting 112. hydrus:

If there is one truth about fox news, there are some foxy ladies that work there...Is it still warm and wet in Florida.?...:)
I'm glad you posted that and not me...

:-) :-)
Quoting 88. hydrus:

From our local Mets here in TN...They seem to favor a large shift in the U.S. pattern..THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE SHOWING BETTER AGREEMENT TOWARD THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD, WITH A MASSIVE
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMING THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK
THAT WOULD SIGNAL A SIGNIFICANT PATTERN SHIFT. UNTIL THEN, LOOK
FOR PERSISTENT ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WITH A CONTINUED CHANCE
OF RAIN AND SOME THUNDERSTORMS AT LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY.



I wonder if the models factor in the effect of the strong El Nino in progress - with the persistent split jet stream, I don't see how things will change much from what they are now - and I have doubts about whether this El Nino is going to disappear as fast as some (models?) claim it will.
Quoting 111. oldmickey:

That is something that I have wondered about for a long time, have the night time low temperatures been increasing at a faster rate than the daytime high temperatures? Does anyone know of any research about that topic?
Yes, according to at least one study. Nighttime minimum are increasing at a faster rate than daytime maximums. It's already been demonstrated that higher nighttime temperatures have a deleterious effect on rice yield and, I suspect, other crops as well. It's well known that high minimums make the health effects of a heatwave much worse. It's really worrisome, but not really highlighted much.
Quoting 97. VirginIslandsVisitor:



Absolutely none here except the paper ones I'll be cutting out on Xmas morning.....
None here either, although the low did get down to 29 this morning, only the second below freezing night this season. It will probably stay right at freezing tonight as the winds have started to shift to the south. Between the tropical jest and some disturbances that will form on the split flow, I may get some more decent rains Monday through Christmas. It still doesn't look like I'll have anything sever from it, but I'll probably have enough thunderstorms to scare the bejeezus out of Radar Dog, and, with my luck, they'll all happen at night, so I have to sit up and babysit him. Christmas looks like the warmest day of the week, with a high near our existing record of 80. It will feel just like Christmas in...oh, I don't know..maybe some place like St. Thomas. :-)
Quoting 94. VirginIslandsVisitor:

Good evening everybody!

It's been a while since I last posted but the Xmas season is upon us and my life has been involved in making Santa Claus magically appear for many children in numerous homes who wouldn't see a gift if it weren't for the group of gal pals I have that make it happen! The families we have found (through recommendations from churches, friends, and acquaintances) can make their rent, utilities and food but there isn't anything left at the end of the month.....and that's where we kick in. There will be presents, a week's worth of food or more, and gift certificates to grocery stores to last them a little while afterwards. Just had our final meeting tonight and deliveries start tomorrow afternoon.

So anyway, it's a beautiful, clear 79, feeling like 79 kind of evening on the island tonight.

I do hope all is well with y'all!

Lindy
That's a nice thing you and the gals are doing. I was watching a YouTube video earlier today about what little things people all over the world do to make life better, even if only helping an old lady across the street. Much more inspiring than the "ISIS and we're all gonna die" videos that are in the headlines.
Quoting 117. sar2401:

None here either, although the low did get down to 29 this morning, only the second below freezing night this season. It will probably stay right at freezing tonight as the winds have started to shift to the south. Between the tropical jest and some disturbances that will form on the split flow, I may get some more decent rains Monday through Christmas. It still doesn't look like I'll have anything sever from it, but I'll probably have enough thunderstorms to scare the bejeezus out of Radar Dog, and, with my luck, they'll all happen at night, so I have to sit up and babysit him. Christmas looks like the warmest day of the week, with a high near our existing record of 80. It will feel just like Christmas in...oh, I don't know..maybe some place like St. Thomas. :-)

*lol* Just come join us Christmas day at Megan's, Sar! I'll save you a beach chair!
NWS out of Melbourne. Sunday through Christmas. Merry Spring Christmas!


THE BIG STORY WILL BE A RETURN TO MUCH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
TUESDAY AND BEYOND. TEMPERATURES ARE FORECAST TO BE AT OR SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL SUNDAY THEN A POTENTIAL FOR RECORD WARMTH WILL RETURN
MID TO LATE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE LOWER TO MID
80S EACH DAY. QUITE HIGH DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 60S TO LOWER 70S
WILL PRODUCE MAXIMUM HEAT INDICES CLOSE TO 90.

Quoting 93. GeoffreyWPB:

From the Miami NWS Disco....Happy 4th of July from south Florida!...

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED UPPER-LEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL PASS
WELL NORTH OF REGION /OH AND TN VLYS/ TUESDAY...DRAWING UP DEEPER
MOISTURE INTO FLORIDA AND LEADING TO A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AREAWIDE.
THEREAFTER...ONLY SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES THROUGH CHRISTMAS.
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WELL ABV NRML...POSSIBLY RECORD
BREAKING. AVERAGE MAXIMA WILL BE 80S WITH MINIMA MAINLY IN 70S AS
ABNORMALLY POWERFUL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE BECOMES ENTRENCHED.

Link
Quoting 104. Xyrus2000:



Fox is hard right (some of my European colleagues consider them extreme right/neo-fascist).

We don't really do "left" in the US. We've always been kind of middle of the road. But when your standing over in Fox's crazy zone even the Sacred Reagan is bleeding heart liberal. :P
I wonder how many people realize that Reagan was the president of a labor union in his younger days, and was actually investigated by the McCarthy clan as a Com symp? He really was at least a leftist then, and some of that still showed when he became president. He expanded government spending and social service programs more than any other president before him. The last real conservative we had running for president was Goldwater, and the last real leftist, other than the perennial CPUSA goofballs that no one ever heard of, was Eugene Debs. That was a long time ago. We really don't do "left" or "right" here. No matter what the polls say, we tend to vote for the person who's seen as the most centrist. There's certainly no other explanation for how Bill Clinton got two terms. :-)
Quoting 118. sar2401:

That's a nice thing you and the gals are doing. I was watching a YouTube video earlier today about what little things people all over the world do to make life better, even if only helping an old lady across the street. Much more inspiring than the "ISIS and we're all gonna die" videos that are in the headlines.


So true. There are so many things that go on here on the island to help make things better. Every little bit counts. It also amazes me to no end how easy it is to make things happen and how willing people are willing to donate, especially if they can see where their money is going.

By the way, we had a Christmas tree competition with the local bars. Our bar got the "most creative" award. I'll have to make a blog and continue this conversation on it but suffice it to say, the tree created with 300 recycled wine bottles was ours and no, I didn't drink all the wine. ;-)
Holy cow! I just looked up the weather for Cleveland on Christmas Day. The high is supposed to be 58 with a low of 38, and a 50% chance of rain showers....in Cleveland! The normal high is 35, three degrees lower than the predicted low. The record high is 50, which was in 1997, our last super duper El Nino year. I don't know how much of this is climate change and how much is El Nino. I do know that it's going to be a lot harder to think of things to talk to the relatives about, since most of our Christmas conversations have been about them getting snowed in...again.
Quoting 115. LariAnn:



I wonder if the models factor in the effect of the strong El Nino in progress - with the persistent split jet stream, I don't see how things will change much from what they are now - and I have doubts about whether this El Nino is going to disappear as fast as some (models?) claim it will.
Greetings LariAnn..I believe the El Nino will last into late spring or early summer, with a very gradual weakening in the mean time. Suffice it to say, there is a lot of energy about to be shifted into the stratosphere, if it is enough to slit the polar vort, there will be all kinds of severe weather. The storm progged after Christmas looks large and powerful, and a very wet system before it. AER is predicting that a SSW will likely occur, that added with the strong subtropical jet will make things interesting to be sure...Here is the link to AER, they are one of the best at predicting global weather events, they put out new reports every Monday....Link
The record high for Cleveland OH is 66 on Christmas Day. That happened in 1982, also during a very strong El Nino
Quoting 122. VirginIslandsVisitor:



So true. There are so many things that go on here on the island to help make things better. Every little bit counts. It also amazes me to no end how easy it is to make things happen and how willing people are willing to donate, especially if they can see where their money is going.

By the way, we had a Christmas tree competition with the local bars. Our bar got the "most creative" award. I'll have to make a blog and continue this conversation on it but suffice it to say, the tree created with 300 recycled wine bottles was ours and no, I didn't drink all the wine. ;-)
You have a tree made out of 300 wind bottles? You just have to post a picture of that. I can't even visualize what you did, but it must be pretty creative. :-)

It was really good to watch a video that had nothing to do with all the issues of today. It was about 15 minutes long, and most of the segments were only 20 or so seconds each. Everything from the cops shutting down a freeway so mama duck and her babies could make it across to a guy on a motorcycle closing the gas cap door on the car next to him. We humans are strange animals. In almost every case where someone needed help, no one did anything until that first person came forward. Once he or she did, a flock of other people started to help also. It just confirmed for me that most people really are decent and willing to help, but it takes that very first person taking the risk before they join in.
Quoting 107. Jedkins01:



Fox really is an entertainment channel. There are both left and right bias media, and both pander to each groups, though the left ones seem more serious about their agenda, while the right ones like Fox news, feel more like an entertainment network than a media source.

I do still watch Fox news every now and then, just for fun :)


I would consider watching if the bubble headed bleach blonds showed more cleavage.
Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz.........................Borin g!

Tail end of cold front getting ready to go thru San Diego with meager rain totals.

Nails Lindy with the spitter!
Our forecast for Christmas Eve currently has a high of 63 F

If it is anywhere near that warm ... well, I don't even know what I will do. Cry? It will just be beyond believable.

This prolonged warmth is also terrible for our economy -- we need winter sports of all sorts!
The 66 degree reading was at the international airport not the lakefront airport.
What about maple syrup?

Getting some rain here...

Little Bit...
Blog Hole
PedleyCA..That is funny! You are being far to optimistic! I needed the laugh. Hope you guys get a deluge just so Joe (Hurricane Hunter) can get his boat out in the neighborhood. Last night 10 degrees in Concho AZ.
Quoting 138. Wolfberry:

PedleyCA..That is funny! You are being far to optimistic! I needed the laugh. Hope you guys get a deluge just so Joe (Hurricane Hunter) can get his boat out in the neighborhood. Last night 10 degrees in Concho AZ.


That is too darn cold.....
Best looking long range GFS i've seen in a while in terms of 500mb height of consistent trough in the east and ridging in the West (+PNA/-NAO).
Quoting 140. Drakoen:

Best looking long range GFS i've seen in a while in terms of 500mb height of consistent trough in the east and ridging in the West (+PNA/-NAO).
Did you see the snow flakes yesterday evening?
Quoting 141. washingtonian115:

Did you see the snow flakes yesterday evening?



I wasn't looking out for them. I did see later on radar that it may have flurried here. I think IAD and BWI reported flurries.
143. flsky
It should be "Democrat Party" and "Republic Party" if you're going to be impartial.

Quoting 105. Jedkins01:




I'm not sure today's liberalism has anything to do with liberty, I see increasingly more support of removal of liberty and essential rights among liberals, even more than the Republicans. I suppose that makes me a "conservative liberal" as oxymoron as that may seem.

Though I think there are still lovers of essential human rights and liberties left in both the Democrat Part and the Republican Party, but the dominating power seems to have left those voices in the minority influence in government.
thru 9:16pm pacific

RIVERSIDE AIRPORT 0.16 847
RIV PRESIDENTIAL PARK 0.12 880
RIVERSIDE SOUTH 0.12 875
Some Soo Cal rain totals thru 9:16 pm pacific

Link
Quoting 140. Drakoen:

Best looking long range GFS i've seen in a while in terms of 500mb height of consistent trough in the east and ridging in the West (+PNA/-NAO).


Hmmm sweet music to my ears
The big Christmas SoCal storm weakens like the rest...still searching for El Niño for the Southland! .15 inches of rain again...no Bueno.
The apparent lack of interest in the comments in some of the amazing climate and weather-related science at the AGU meeting is depressing to contemplate.

Much of that is in the Atmospheric Sciences section. There are a lot of detailed abstracts and posters, and eight of these sessions are on video.

Great cutting edge science about blocking, drought, extreme events of all sorts... have at it!
Quoting 132. VermontStorms:

Our forecast for Christmas Eve currently has a high of 63 F

If it is anywhere near that warm ... well, I don't even know what I will do. Cry? It will just be beyond believable.

This prolonged warmth is also terrible for our economy -- we need winter sports of all sorts!

Here on the west coast we're getting snow in the Cascades this year. Hoodoo Ski Bowl is open with a bit over 3 feet of packed snow. Last year they didn't open at all. The forecast is for another 4-8 inches on Sunday 6-10 inches on Monday and 2-4 inches Tuesday. Down here in the valley it's all rain.
Live in or interested in California? Check out U42A-03 (session videoed but not up yet):

"Climate changes, which will very likely mount over the next several decades, would add to a set of shifts that have appeared in snow and runoff during recent decades over western North America. Water from mountain snow has historically provided a vital portion of the water supply for the region, but warming since the mid-1970’s has produced more rain, less snow, diminished snow accumulation and earlier runoff over mountain catchments that historically have accumulated significant snow cover. The observed warming and the hydrologic shifts have, with a high degree of likelihood, been boosted by additional anthropogenic warming. A many-member ensemble of CMIP5 GCM simulations indicates that even under moderate scenarios of rising greenhouse gases, the warming, relative to historical climatology, could approach +2°C by mid-21st Century. This amount of warming would produce substantial changes in watersheds which have historically been dominated by snowmelt. In the California Sierra Nevada, this warming would advance spring runoff timing by more than two weeks. Combined with changes towards increased precipitation amounts in the region’s largest storms, higher than present-day freezing levels would increase flood flows in Sierran rivers. Historical observations and hydrological model simulations indicate that California’s total spring snow water storage will decline by more than half by 2100. Heavy snow years would still occur, but not as often as today, and springs with highly depleted mountain snow pack would occur with increasing frequency. These changes would produce a cascade of impacts to natural landscapes and resources, requiring multifold adaptation strategies by the humans who use and are affected by them."

What he said during the session was that the snowpack reduction under this "moderate" warming scenario would actually be about 2/3rds. Even with no decline in overall precipitation (although some degree of that is expected since the blocked ridge that's been so persistent of late will be enhanced going forward), the increased evapotranspiration from rising temperatures that's already been observed in the current drought will dry things even more.

People will have enough water, but ag will suffer a very large hit and over time the majority of our forests will burn, with much more of the landscape becoming desert or semi-desert that retains water poorly.
Quoting 149. riverat544:


Here on the west coast we're getting snow in the Cascades this year. Hoodoo Ski Bowl is open with a bit over 3 feet of packed snow. Last year they didn't open at all. The forecast is for another 4-8 inches on Sunday 6-10 inches on Monday and 2-4 inches Tuesday. Down here in the valley it's all rain.
Long-range forecast says a dry PNW from January on once the El Nno pattern kicks in completely, but I'm not sure how much to trust that given all the pre-existing heat offshore.
Quoting 106. sar2401:

Now that Iran has been rehabilitated and can sell oil again, things might improve if they stop spending a significant amount of their foreign reserves to develop missiles and nuclear weapons, stop subsidizing the cost of water, and spend part of their new found revenue to fix their collapsing water systems and stop polluting what they have. Sometimes drought is not the biggest problem.

Looks like you solved the California drought. Just quit building missiles and nuclear weapons and stop subsidizing Nestlé. Well done.
Still have Jan - Mar, but Christmas Week is economically a big one to lose.

Too early to know, but hopefully syrup production will not be affected too terribly this spring.

Quoting 132. VermontStorms:

Our forecast for Christmas Eve currently has a high of 63 F

If it is anywhere near that warm ... well, I don't even know what I will do. Cry? It will just be beyond believable.

This prolonged warmth is also terrible for our economy -- we need winter sports of all sorts!
Quoting 127. sar2401:

Not according to the unimpeachable source known as Weather Underground it's not. I can never find anything at the Cleveland NWS page when it comes to daily records, but Cleveland.com, which is usually reliable, does show a record high of 66.
For the record--literally and figuratively--1982's 66 was indeed the warmest Christmas temp ever in Cleveland. Here are the top three from Threadex:

Quoting 127. sar2401:
I have no idea why I believe anything on here now.
Ah, the requisite anti-WU slam. I just knew you wouldn't let us down... ;-)
Not sure whether this pic was already posted. In any case, something stunning to meditate on a Sunday:



Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter releases new high-resolution earthrise image
December 18, 2015
Bad news from China this morning. Heavy rain hampers rescue operations.

China landslide: 22 buildings collapse in Shenzhen industrial park
BBC, 24 minutes ago



Quoting 63. Kenfa03:

Who would you suggest that leader be?
I'm thinking StormTracker Scott.
Kelly Slater Wave Company.
Having personally rented Typhoon Lagoon at Disney for my bachelor party and a few other occasions I can tell you.....this is a game changer. For surfers anyway... :)
Truly mind boggling.
Link
Lack of snow puts crops in danger worldwide: Braun
Business Recorder/Reuters, December 20, 2015
The extent of snow across the Northern Hemisphere is alarmingly low, especially considering the increased risk of much colder weather come January. North America, Europe and Western Asia have all been consistently 5 to 10 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than average over the past month. Record warmth across the Eastern United States last weekend had residents enjoying weather more typical of late summer.
Seasonably mild conditions thus far have led to the lack of vital snow cover across grain and oilseed production regions of the Northern Hemisphere, and widespread snowfall is unlikely through the end of the year. This leaves winter crops exposed and vulnerable to the elements, and atmospheric indexes are already indicating greater chances for frigid conditions during January and February.
Most winter grains across the Northern Hemisphere are currently in good condition, but crop ratings could take a tumble if the snow cover does not arrive before the mercury drops. The few snowstorms that have been observed across the Northern Hemisphere so far this season are quickly becoming distant memories. For farmers and winter enthusiasts alike, adequate snowfall this winter may seem like a pipe dream.
Snow cover is the reason that autumn-sown crops are able to survive harsh winters in climates that would otherwise be unsuitable. The layer of snow provides insulation to the soils and the plant's root system. Farmers also rely on snow melt as a vital source of soil moisture replenishment once spring arrives. Soil moisture in the Northern Hemisphere is generally sufficient, save in Ukraine, Russia, and parts of Eastern Europe, where moisture deficits are near record lows. ...

Whole article see link above.

About 100 forest fires break out in north-west Spain
MADRID (AFP) - Some 230 firefighters were dispatched to battle around 100 wildfires which broke out in north-west Spain on Saturday (Dec 19) night, emergency services told AFP, but there were no reports of casualties.
"Around 100 fires are currently blazing," a spokeswoman for fire fighters in the Asturias region said. ...
For the first time this season, a direct moisture tap from the heart of the El Nino region into the westerlies across the Pacific has developed west of Hawaii.

http://sat.wrh.noaa.gov/satellite/showsat.php?wfo =mtr&area=west&type=wv&size=28

Perhaps as a consequence, we're expecting an uptick in the rainfall amounts here in the SF Bay Area with a strong system on Christmas. Meanwhile, the systems continue to come in every two or three days.

kelly has a reputation here endorsing additional sales tax. yet the guy rarely lives here to pay for the tax. his other companies? im going to wait to his 200$ shirts are given to goodwill.
Quoting 154. Neapolitan:

For the record--literally and figuratively--1982's 66 was indeed the warmest Christmas temp ever in Cleveland. Here are the top three from Threadex:

Ah, the requisite anti-WU slam. I just knew you wouldn't let us down... ;-)


Of course, in this case, the problem wasn't with WU but rather with someone looking at data from the wrong airport. Oops.

Hope and change will not solve this.
166. elioe
Finland broke the nationwide December heat record today, +11.3 C at Kokemäki. The old record seems to have been +11.1 C at Mariehamn earlier this month. The record before this year was +10.8 C at Salo in December 2006.

Finnish meteorological agency in Twitter
More detail (in Finnish)
GFS looks interesting for this upcoming weekend for the southeast
Quoting 165. ClimateChange:

Hope and change will not solve this.
Why so vague.? Explain what you mean by " this "....Some people have hope...Change is inevitable...
Quoting 169. hydrus:

Why so vague.? Explain what you mean by " this "....Some people have hope...Change is inevitable...


At church,the message was to stay positive and to not give up. To only be negative and without hope,you will go down the wrong path in life.
164. hydrus

I'm dreaming of a bare christmas
I know! I saw this yesterday on Swellinfo. I'm still trying to figure out where it is. Possibly NC or California. I figure California because that is probably where you'd find the engineering and oceanographical talent to pull it off.

For those WU'ers who think this is just another surfer wave link, please do yourself a favor and see what Mother Nature rarely gifts us; a perfect wave. It is a marvel of physics.

That team has been working on it for 10 years.

Quoting 159. Abacosurf:

Kelly Slater Wave Company.
Having personally rented Typhoon Lagoon at Disney for my bachelor party and a few other occasions I can tell you.....this is a game changer. For surfers anyway... :)
Truly mind boggling.
Link
Quoting 171. washingtonian115:

164. hydrus

I'm dreaming of a bare christmas

Eye candy continues on the long range GFS. Possibly heading into a more favorable pattern late Dec, early Jan.
Happy Sunday and Holidays.

The best wu advice I can offer is by Jimmy Eat World.

Just do your best,at everything you can,

don't worry what the bitter Heart's, are gonna say'


Going with the Xmas in July Seafood Menu Friday.

Oysters, Shrimps, Redfish, trout..and Flounder.

Quoting 173. Drakoen:


Eye candy continues on the long range GFS. Possibly heading into a more favorable pattern late Dec, early Jan.
Just like early January 2014? Once we hit January 4th that year the fun began.
Quoting 159. Abacosurf:

Kelly Slater Wave Company.
Having personally rented Typhoon Lagoon at Disney for my bachelor party and a few other occasions I can tell you.....this is a game changer. For surfers anyway... :)
Truly mind boggling.
Link

Wow indeed. Looks like a lot of fun. Been a frozen wave rider for a long time and witnessed a huge change in snowboarding when it went from hurling ourselves off the lumps and bumps in a "natural" halfpipe to kids getting to practice all day on ideal conditions in perfectly sculpted and groomed pipes.

Btw cold and wet pacific storms continue to pound us up here on the 49th parralel, winter storm warning in effect again! Another 14" of snow at Mt. Baker for a 146" base. After last years record low snowpack this is truely wonderful, however at this point i would be happy to share some with all the east coast snow enthusiasts%u2026 if only I could.
Basically we have the RRR ( ridiculously resilient ridge) located right off the coast of SoCal preventing anything from getting through. Sad we can't get someone here to admit that for SOCAL (not NOCAL) this is not looking good. It's been there for months and every storm that's looked good has dwindled.
Quoting 179. hydrus:


Now scoot that 150 miles south and we'll be good....
Quoting 91. washingtonian115:

Saw snow flakes yeterday for the first time and a very thin layer on my car earlier this morning.


None here in College Park Sat. AM or prior. I was expecting a possible flurry because of cold aloft but I missed out or I missed it even though I was up at 6:30AM to walk the dogs.
Quoting 178. MtotheJ:

Basically we have the RRR ( ridiculously resilient ridge) located right off the coast of SoCal preventing anything from getting through. Sad we can't get someone here to admit that for SOCAL (not NOCAL) this is not looking good. It's been there for months and every storm that's looked good has dwindled.
Pretty sure those who understand where southern California's water comes from are happy to see increasing precip up north, in the Sierras, and in those mountains with headwaters that feed the Colorado River.
I would like to know what the benefits of global warming will be. Is there any positive outlook like growing enough grain to feed the planet in the arctic? Maybe tropical rainforests spread north? Is there any hope or is this completely hopeless. If man doesn't have enough money, or willpower to stop global warming, then shouldn't the money be invested on preparing for it? I refuse to accept that we will die from this. Grapes in the united kingdom and bananas in california sounds pretty dang good to me. Spend money on energy, give everyone clean cheap energy, and the problem is solved over night. Make energy a right not a commodity and folks will do the right thing.
The point is this winter is behaving like a repeat of the last 4-5 years for Southern California complete with promises of big storms on the horizon and nothing but shattered dreams and lost hopes when the storm produces .15 again.
Quoting 166. elioe:

Finland broke the nationwide December heat record today, +11.3 C at Kokemäki. The old record seems to have been +11.1 C at Mariehamn earlier this month. The record before this year was +10.8 C at Salo in December 2006.

Finnish meteorological agency in Twitter
More detail (in Finnish)

I'm thinking back to about 1972 when I was in Stockholm across the Baltic from you and the temps never rose above freezing from the end of October until February, snow and ice on the ground all the time.
Now today its +12/C and only a coupe of days in the whole month the temp has even got down to freezing.
Maybe I was there in a cold year but the difference is incredible, I'm wondering what the people who live in the Baltic areas are thinking about these temps. Must be doing the skating and sledging industry no good at all.

Link

Meanwhile its about 20/C here today and continuing warm for the rest of the month!
Quoting 163. kestrel68:



Of course, in this case, the problem wasn't with WU but rather with someone looking at data from the wrong airport. Oops.


Well, no. I have KCLE selected for the forecast station. When I looked at the Almanac, however, it defaulted to KBKL. Even though I changed it to KCLE in the Almanac, it will always change back to KBKL when I open it again. It's a programming error that I didn't notice, but the error shouldn't be there. If I have one station selected for everything else, I shouldn't have to birdog WU to see if it did something weird in another section of the same station.
Quoting 184. MtotheJ:

The point is this winter is behaving like a repeat of the last 4-5 years for Southern California complete with promises of big storms on the horizon and nothing but shattered dreams and lost hopes when the storm produces .15 again.
Give it about 10 more days and you should start seeing a pattern shift to bigger and more frequent storms. By the end of January, I think you'll be hoping it stops raining for a while.
December temperature records broken in Finland
updated 20.12.2015 19:08
Finland has seen higher temperatures this December than ever before, with a new record broken on Sunday. Kokemaeki in western Finland saw temperatures of 11.2 degrees Celsius, breaking the previous record of 11.1 degrees - which was itself set this December, in Aland.
The exceptionally mild winter continues in Finland, with temperature records broken twice already this month. On 6 December Aland basked in a relatively balmy 11.1 degrees, but that record was broken on Sunday in Kokemaeki, where monitoring stations recorded 11.2 degrees.
On a very warm Sunday temperatures were in the double digits in Kaarina, Vihti, Lohja, Espoo, Helsinki Airport and in Turku.
"The figures might still rise, as in winter the temperature doesn't depend on the sun shining but the mass of air," said Yle meteorologist Toni Hellinen.
Hellinen says that southern and south-western Finland hasn't been this warm this late in the year at least since 2000.
The north and centre of the country, however, is much colder. Temperatures in Lapland are well below freezing and the local December record is seven degrees Celsius.





Impressive flow of warm airmasses over western Europe to the north.

Edit: Ah, sorry, I've realized too late that you got this news already in post #166 from elioe.
Quoting 156. barbamz:

Bad news from China this morning. Heavy rain hampers rescue operations.

China landslide: 22 buildings collapse in Shenzhen industrial park
BBC, 24 minutes ago




Almost looked more like a controlled demolition than a normal landslide. It's hard to tell from the article, but it looks like the area above the buildings was being used for some kind of stockpile from previous construction. I don't know if rain got the pile moving or what but, as usual, China's growth policies seem to have exceeded their safety policies.
Quoting 176. washingtonian115:

Just like early January 2014? Once we hit January 4th that year the fun began.


Quite possibly.
191. elioe
Quoting 185. PlazaRed:


I'm thinking back to about 1972 when I was in Stockholm across the Baltic from you and the temps never rose above freezing from the end of October until February, snow and ice on the ground all the time.
Now today its +12/C and only a coupe of days in the whole month the temp has even got down to freezing.
Maybe I was there in a cold year but the difference is incredible, I'm wondering what the people who live in the Baltic areas are thinking about these temps. Must be doing the skating and sledging industry no good at all.

Link

Meanwhile its about 20/C here today and continuing warm for the rest of the month!


Well, the most popular ski resorts, for both domestic and international tourists, are located in the northern part of Finland. There's plenty of snow there in ski slopes, and of course in other terrain also, for the Christmas season reindeer sledge activities :)



Not so sure about other countries nearby. Part of this warmth has been due to Föhn winds, so that might not do good for Swedish ski resorts, if dry and warm downslope winds have persisted.

And in other parts of Finland, well, these conditions generally bring down heating costs, so many people aren't so sad about this...
This would make the NE a weather mess.
Quoting 18. Qazulight:



I have been walking to work every day, it was 15 or so this morning. I was afraid my glasses would fog up and it would freeze, so far that has not happened. I have good cold wheat her clothes, including -40 Kamak boots, Carhart mittens and a Carhart coat and good under layer clothes including smart wool socks.

My biggest problems are my thumbs get cold, (The mittens have a thumb) and my face gets cold, but I am afraid to get it too covered because if I breathe wrong it will fog up my glasses. However, I am thinking tommorow I will by a nice Carhart hat and some glove liners

Cheers
Qazulight


A cheap-ish pair of plain brown jersey gloves, the smallest size that'll fit on your hands and inside your mittens, will go a long way to adding retained heat to your hands, that can circulate to your thumbs. It gets pretty darned cold here in the mornings when I'm outside doing the livestock thing, and lately I've found the best way to keep my hands warm is a pair of large jersey gloves over a pair of small jersey gloves.

Butchering out an overnight-chilled hog carcass, I wore a pair of large vinyl gloves over the small size layer of jerseys, (only in the high 30's/low 40's, so not terribly cold) and I kept those thumbs warm and dry (and blood free) by doing that.

Butchering season. Good for extra cash, and extra stuff for my freezer and variety for the dogs.
Quoting 188. barbamz:

December temperature records broken in Finland
updated 20.12.2015 19:08
Finland has seen higher temperatures this December than ever before, with a new record broken on Sunday. Kokemki in western Finland saw temperatures of 11.2 degrees Celsius, breaking the previous record of 11.1 degrees%u2014which was itself set this December, in land.
The exceptionally mild winter continues in Finland, with temperature records broken twice already this month. On 6 December land basked in a relatively balmy 11.1 degrees, but that record was broken on Sunday in Kokemki, where monitoring stations recorded 11.2 degrees.
On a very warm Sunday temperatures were in the double digits in Kaarina, Vihti, Lohja, Espoo, Helsinki Airport and in Turku.
"The figures might still rise, as in winter the temperature doesn%u2019t depend on the sun shining but the mass of air," said Yle meteorologist Toni Hellinen.
Hellinen says that southern and south-western Finland hasn%u2019t been this warm this late in the year at least since 2000.
The north and centre of the country, however, is much colder. Temperatures in Lapland are well below freezing and the local December record is seven degrees Celsius.





Impressive flow of warm airmasses over western Europe to the north.

The precipitable water image for December 20 looks more like September 20. The PW in that narrow band in the Atlantic going all the way back to the Mexican Pacific coast ranges from 1.5 to 2.0 inches, extraordinarily high for Christmas week. At the same time, the central and western Atlantic PW readings are much lower than normal. I guess that's one reason why we're seeing a lack of storminess in the United States Northeast while Spitsbergen sees blizzards and parts of Finland have record warmth. Strong El Nino's have produced some strange weather in the past, but it looks like the current Godzilla variety is going to be a real record breaker in more ways than one.

Quoting 193. nonblanche:



A cheap-ish pair of plain brown jersey gloves, the smallest size that'll fit on your hands and inside your mittens, will go a long way to adding retained heat to your hands, that can circulate to your thumbs. It gets pretty darned cold here in the mornings when I'm outside doing the livestock thing, and lately I've found the best way to keep my hands warm is a pair of large jersey gloves over a pair of small jersey gloves.

Butchering out an overnight-chilled hog carcass, I wore a pair of large vinyl gloves over the small size layer of jerseys, (only in the high 30's/low 40's, so not terribly cold) and I kept those thumbs warm and dry (and blood free) by doing that.

Butchering season. Good for extra cash, and extra stuff for my freezer and variety for the dogs.
Haven't had to worry much about gloves here, although the overnight low did touch 29. It's now up to 65, and the colder air is leaving stage right. I have a friend that raises pigs in Minden, and I paid him to raise me one every every year. He claimed that butchering them only after the cold weather had set in improved the taste and keeping quality of the meat. I always had good meat from him, and I have no idea if what he said was true, but I sometimes wondered if he just didn't want to do butchering when it was hot. You are a much tougher person than me though when it comes to butchering. I helped him one year. That was enough for me.
Quoting 191. elioe:



And in other parts of Finland, well, these conditions generally bring down heating costs, so many people aren't so sad about this...


This is a HUGE deal for us, too. There are people up here who've probably already saved close to $1,000 on heating costs compared to a typical winter. And they haven't had to shovel or plow, and they don't get stuck in snowstorms trying to drive, and they aren't bitterly cold all the time. Human nature being what it is, you're going to have a lot of people who are wondering whether global warming is really such a bad thing . . . .
Quoting 189. sar2401:

Almost looked more like a controlled demolition than a normal landslide. It's hard to tell from the article, but it looks like the area above the buildings was being used for some kind of stockpile from previous construction. I don't know if rain got the pile moving or what but, as usual, China's growth policies seem to have exceeded their safety policies.

You're probably right, Sar:
Daily Mail (and other media): The Beijing Youth Daily, citing a local resident, reported that the soil that slid down onto the area had been piled up against a 100-meter (110-yard) -high hill after being dug up in the past two years in construction work.

Not sure what's the latest number of missing people:

59 missing as massive landslide hits China's Shenzhen
By PTI | 20 Dec, 2015, 10.06PM IST

3 injured, 27 missing as landslide hits south China
English.news.cn | 2015-12-20 21:23:55 | Editor: huaxia
last of the cool air now its already sticky. no end to this adnormally hot air till january it looks. like scott been saying for months february could be dangerous for extreme weather in central florida.
33 more hours until Winter officially begins at 11:48 EST exactly.
Quoting 183. tommyboy76:

I would like to know what the benefits of global warming will be. Is there any positive outlook like growing enough grain to feed the planet in the arctic? Maybe tropical rainforests spread north? Is there any hope or is this completely hopeless. If man doesn't have enough money, or willpower to stop global warming, then shouldn't the money be invested on preparing for it? I refuse to accept that we will die from this. Grapes in the united kingdom and bananas in california sounds pretty dang good to me. Spend money on energy, give everyone clean cheap energy, and the problem is solved over night. Make energy a right not a commodity and folks will do the right thing.
Of course it's not hopeless. Those that portray the situation as hopeless are no more correct than those that say everything is fine. There will not be rainforests spreading further north if we do nothing to decrease the CO2 since the increasing heat will be accompanied by generally dry air compared to the equatorial regions. Giving everyone clean cheap energy is a laudable goal. The sticking points are how you achieve that goal. What are your thoughts about how to get there?
Quoting 197. barbamz:


You're probably right, Sar:
Daily Mail (and other media): The Beijing Youth Daily, citing a local resident, reported that the soil that slid down onto the area had been piled up against a 100-meter (110-yard) -high hill after being dug up in the past two years in construction work.

Not sure what's the latest number of missing people:

59 missing as massive landslide hits China's Shenzhen
By PTI | 20 Dec, 2015, 10.06PM IST

3 injured, 27 missing as landslide hits south China
English.news.cn | 2015-12-20 21:23:55 | Editor: huaxia

I'm still trying to understand what got that apparently massive stockpile moving. There doesn't seem to have been an unusual amount of rain reported in that area over the last 10 days, but it doesn't take a lot to get uncompacted fill moving. Looking at the video of the large building collapsing (can't tell if it was industrial or residential), I'll bet there were signs of this pile moving in the foundations of that building long before this. I've never seen a structural collapse that large caused by a landslide to an otherwise undamaged building. It's so frustrating trying to get factual news out of China. Just like the massive explosions earlier this year in Tianjin, this will be covered up within a week...literally...and we won't hear of it again. I really wish there was a way I could just not buy Chinese goods until they improve their safety and pollution record, but that's nearly impossible now. Sometimes our desires for cheap goods comes at too high a cost.
Quoting 196. MaineGuy:



This is a HUGE deal for us, too. There are people up here who've probably already saved close to $1,000 on heating costs compared to a typical winter. And they haven't had to shovel or plow, and they don't get stuck in snowstorms trying to drive, and they aren't bitterly cold all the time. Human nature being what it is, you're going to have a lot of people who are wondering whether global warming is really such a bad thing . . . .
Then there's the other side of the coin. Our peach growers are now starting to get concerned about having enough winter chill to grow a decent crop. Given the heat and humidity forecast for the coming week, I'll probably have to run the A/C part of the time since we have guests coming for Christmas Eve and Day, and they won't want to sweat to death. You're right about the heat bills though. I haven't heard my relatives in Cleveland complaining that it's too hot for them. :-)
Quoting 202. sar2401:

It's so frustrating trying to get factual news out of China. Just like the massive explosions earlier this year in Tianjin, this will be covered up within a week...literally...and we won't hear of it again.

I bet Dave Petley will provide an analysis tomorrow or so in his famous landslide blog f.e. with the help of earlier pics from Google Earth.

Edit: Looks like the number of 59 missing is unfortunately the latest; I really hope they'll find some more alive:

At least 59 missing as massive landslide hits China's Shenzhen
Last Updated: Monday, December 21, 2015 - 00:16
Beijing: At least 59 people, including 23 women, were missing today after hundreds of tonnes of mud from a crumbling mountain engulfed 33 buildings and triggered an explosion at a gas station in an industrial park in Shenzhen, China's biggest manufacturing hub.
In what is being regarded as one of China's worst urban disasters, 14 people were pulled out of the mountain of mud that swamped the vast area of the new industrial estate. Three people were injured in the disaster.
The 59 missing included 36 males and 23 females, Yang Feng, an official with Shenzhen's emergency management office told reporters tonight.
More than 1,500 people including firemen, police and health workers are involved in the rescue operations, searching the debris for any trapped victims. ...
Quoting 183. tommyboy76:

I would like to know what the benefits of global warming will be. Is there any positive outlook like growing enough grain to feed the planet in the arctic? Maybe tropical rainforests spread north? Is there any hope or is this completely hopeless. If man doesn't have enough money, or willpower to stop global warming, then shouldn't the money be invested on preparing for it? I refuse to accept that we will die from this. Grapes in the united kingdom and bananas in california sounds pretty dang good to me. Spend money on energy, give everyone clean cheap energy, and the problem is solved over night. Make energy a right not a commodity and folks will do the right thing.


The negative impacts of global warming on agriculture, health, economy and environment far outweigh any positives.

The best way to put this in perspective is to compare the positives of global warming to the negatives:

http://www.skepticalscience.com/global-warming-po sitives-negatives-intermediate.htm

Quoting 204. barbamz:


I bet Dave Petley will provide an analysis tomorrow or so in his famous landslide blog f.e. with the help of earlier pics from Google Earth.
Yes, I'm looking forward to seeing what his take is. Of course, he's still going to have to ferret out what really happened from using satellite photos and other data, since China is not likely to be forthcoming on what really happened.
Rocket landing at Cape Canaveral planned after SpaceX launch

Excerpt:

SpaceX confirmed the rocket%u2019s first stage, a slender cylindrical kerosene-fed rocket body standing 156 feet tall, will aim for a controlled touchdown at a landing pad the company rented from the U.S. Air Force less than six miles south of the Falcon 9%u2019s Complex 40 launch pad.

Liftoff is set for a 60-second window opening at 8:29 p.m. EST Sunday (0129 GMT Monday). A backup launch opportunity is available Monday.


Edit: SpaceX has called off today's Falcon 9 launch attempt and is rescheduling the liftoff for Monday.
My forecast high for Christmas Eve here in SC is 82F. Low of 66F.

May need central AC. Unbelievable.

Quoting 210. Grothar:




Today feels just about perfect for me here in south Fort Myers. I've got 76 degrees, nice breeze out of the east/east northeast, and partly cloudy skies.

But we'll be looking at mid 80s (actually upper 80s - wu calling for 88 degrees) for Christmas.

Quoting 211. HaoleboySurfEC:

My forecast high for Christmas Eve here in SC is 82F. Low of 66F.

May need central AC. Unbelievable.


Howdy Surf...Big changes are coming...And it will be stormy..Carolina's included.
Quoting 214. hydrus:

Howdy Surf...Big changes are coming...And it will be stormy..Carolina's included.


Carolina's? Where's Press been anyway? It's been a while.

Cloudy and breezy down here all day today... Keeping it cooler than it's been as of late. Forecast low of 76 for Christmas in the Lower Keys.
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
148 PM CST SUN DEC 20 2015

.DISCUSSION...

SURFACE MAP AT 18Z SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST AND SOUTH, WITH
RETURN FLOW ALREADY UNDERWAY AND COPIOUS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE
ALREADY STREAMING IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT STORM SYSTEM. EXPECT SOME
SHOWERS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT PRIOR TO 12Z, MAINLY WEST OF
NASHVILLE, WITH MORE WIDESPREAD ACTIVITY TOMORROW AS BAND OF DEEP
MOISTURE PUSHES THROUGH THE MID STATE AHEAD OF A DEVELOPING SURFACE
FRONT. EXPECT THE BOUNDARY TO MORE OR LESS FRONTOLYSIZE BEFORE
SLIPPING PAST THE REGION, ALTHOUGH THE SHORTWAVE TO OUR WEST WILL
GRADUALLY AMPLIFY DURING THE NEXT FEW DAYS WHILE KEEPING THE MID
STATE UNDER A SW FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR A SERIES OF
IMPULSES TO DEVELOP IN THE WEAK CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT DURING THE
COMING DAYS, KEEPING A PERSISTENT CHANCE OF RAIN IN THE FORECAST
ALONG WITH MUCH WARMER THAN NORMAL TEMPS AND UNUSUALLY HIGH DEW
POINTS. MODEL SOUNDINGS DO SHOW SOME INSTABILITY ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY, SO WILL INCLUDE TS IN THE FORECAST FOR THOSE DAYS. AT
THIS TIME, THE SPC HAS MIDDLE TENNESSEE IN A GENERAL THUNDERSTORM
AREA ONLY, SO WE DO NOT EXPECT SEVERE STORMS WITH ANY OF THIS
ENERGY. LOOK FOR A MUCH STRONGER COLD FRONT TO PUSH THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT, BUT WITH ONLY BRIEF RESPITE FROM THE WET PATTERN
AND VERY LITTLE COLD ADVECTION. CHRISTMAS DAY CONTINUES TO LOOK
WARM AND WET, BUT ANY PRECIPITATION SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL LATER IN
THE DAY AND EVENING. WE CAN`T EXPECT ANY PATTERN SHIFT UNTIL
EITHER LATE NEXT WEEKEND OR EARLY THE FOLLOWING WEEK WHEN A
MASSIVE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST, FINALLY
BRINGING THE UPPER TROUGH WITH IT. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE MILES
APART REGARDING TIMING, BUT THIS IS BEYOND THE 7-DAY FORECAST
PERIOD ANYWAY.
10-4. By March I think this balmy December will have become a distant memory. The rollercoaster ride looks to begin within the next 10 days.

It has been lovely weather but not too great for east coast surfers. Winter storms bring winter waves. So bring it on.

Santa is bringing me a shiny new (not leaky) 4/3 wetsuit. Taller order is the 5lbs I need to drop. Too much good eating this time of year.

Quoting 214. hydrus:

Howdy Surf...Big changes are coming...And it will be stormy..Carolina's included.
Quoting 218. HaoleboySurfEC:

10-4. By March I think this balmy December will have become a distant memory. The rollercoaster ride looks to begin within the next 10 days.

It has been lovely weather but not too great for east coast surfers. Winter storms bring winter waves. So bring it on.

Santa is bringing me a shiny new (not leaky) 4/3 wetsuit. Taller order is the 5lbs I need to drop. Too much good eating this time of year.


Indeed..I,m to big for my board now...Town and Country I bought in 86. Hand made by Ben Aipa.....6 footer tri fin...Would love to surf again..Winter storms will likely be the hit an run type thins winter, excluding the first 2....
Quoting 183. tommyboy76:

I would like to know what the benefits of global warming will be. Is there any positive outlook like growing enough grain to feed the planet in the arctic?


If you believe the arctic soils will thaw into the same flat black land prairie found in Iowa, I have condo I'd like to sell you in Syria.
Take a good look at -
Figure 2. Permafrost is thawing across the Arctic, causing northern lands to sink or change shape.

Another item is the soils there are extremely acidic, and thin.

There is zero infrastructure there to support farming. That is railroad lines, grain elevators , farm to market roads , tractor dealerships, Lock and dams to support barge traffic, etc. etc. etc.
We spent the last 120 years building the breadbasket of the world. And I mean just the basket part. To believe that moving it all out of our country into Canada, and the taiga forests of Russia is good idea, really ??? How is turning Kansas into the Northern Branch of the Sonora Desert a good idea?

Airport had .16, Indian Hill PWS up the Hill had .20, the CoCoRaHS around the corner didn't post anything.
Quoting 221. PedleyCA:


Airport had .16, Indian Hill PWS up the Hill had .20, the CoCoRaHS around the corner didn't post anything.

So sad to read about the lack of rain in your zone Ped.
Hoping that the New Year is going to bring you a few downpours to say the least.

Here in our zone we have had 3 minutes of rains since the end of October and it does not look good, or even dire, for the near future and once it gets to April its bye bye wet season cos the heat is on tap day and night here.

As a matter of mild interest, unless you happen to be in the affected zone! In the north and north west of Spain at the moment, the 20th of December we have 140 wild fires raging, which are as of tonight out of control. Although they may not actually consume much, they are Consuming.

I'll keep an eye on the situation.
By the way , I have logged on here for years as ColoradoBob1 , with an old dead email address.
The cookies just logged me in.
Then last week, I was asked for an email verification.
So now, I am a new member under a new name . None of this is to deceive or trick anyone. But in order up load a new avatar , I have to give IBM my street address and zip code. That's kinda creepy.
And my avatar is waiting "approval".
Quoting 223. RobertWC:

By the way , I have logged on here for years as ColoradoBob1 , with an old dead email address.
The cookies just logged me in.
Then last week, I was asked for an email verification.
So now, I am a new member under a new name . None of this is to deceive or trick anyone. But in order up load a new avatar , I have to give IBM my street address and zip code. That's kinda creepy.

Hi bob,
Where's your helicopter?
See you over on Roberts blog.

Link

Has an old dead neighbour of mine said a long time ago. " you can never be too suspicious!"
not underpaid but they work way too many hours. hope spacex dont mess it up
Quoting 155. barbamz:

Not sure whether this pic was already posted. In any case, something stunning to meditate on a Sunday:



Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter releases new high-resolution earthrise image
December 18, 2015


Interesting cloud pattern over southern Brazil, I'm wondering when the photo was taken as they are suffering from a very bad drought down there and seriously need the rain, as there are an awful lot of them in that area and not much remaining dam capacity to draw on.

Oh, almost forgot, nice photo of home a distant vacation point.
Speaking of the price we are paying -

As Brazil mine spill reaches ocean, its catastrophic extent becomes clear

Everyone read this .

Link
The SpaceX launch has been scrubbed til tomorrow evening.

Hi bob,
Where's your helicopter?
See you over on Roberts blog.

PlazaRed

I'm trying for my top hat. If IBM likes it.

Quoting 228. RobertWC:

Speaking of the price we are paying -

As Brazil mine spill reaches ocean, its catastrophic extent becomes clear

Everyone read this .

Link


In related news, Brazil dam disaster: judge freezes assets of miners BHP and Vale

Brazilian government holds the mining giants responsible for one of the nation’s worst ever environmental disasters, and is demanding $5bn.

A judge has frozen the Brazilian assets of mining giants BHP Billiton and Vale SA after determining their joint venture Samarco was unable to pay for widespread damage caused by the bursting of a dam at its mine last month.

In a ruling issued late on Friday, the judge in the Brazilian state of Minas Gerais determined that Vale and BHP could be held responsible for the disaster at the iron ore mine, for which the government is demanding 20bn reais ($5bn) in compensation.

More ...

Quoting 227. PlazaRed:


Interesting cloud pattern over southern Brazil, I'm wondering when the photo was taken as they are suffering from a very bad drought down there and seriously need the rain, as there are an awful lot of them in that area and not much remaining dam capacity to draw on.

Oh, almost forgot, nice photo of home a distant vacation point.
I have to say to my old eyes that image looks PhotoShopped -- the Earth looks like a much closer wide-angle shot pasted in on a Moonscape. If that is legit, how did they get that image perspective of the Earth? Where is Europe and where is South America? Sign me Suspicious.
Quoting 200. Climate175
33 more hours until Winter officially begins at 11:48 EST exactly.





Actually, meteorological winter began 20 days ago. LINK

You've made over 6400 comments at a weather and climate website, and you don't know that?

210 mph plus Pacific jet, drawing moisture from all the way down to the Equator in the heart of the El Nino region. Steady light rain all day long here in the SF Bay Area with a major rainmaker due in Christmas.

Warmer water creeping southward along the Peruvian coast, with the upwelling region having moved southward as well. El Nino warm pool indicated over the central equatorial Pacific.
Quoting 232. CaneFreeCR:

I have to say to my old eyes that image looks PhotoShopped -- the Earth looks like a much closer wide-angle shot pasted in on a Moonscape. If that is legit, how did they get that image perspective of the Earth? Where is Europe and where is South America? Sign me Suspicious.

Here are the details of this photo, taken on Oct 12, 2015, and yes, in some way there was some work connected with it:

http://www.nasa.gov/image-feature/goddard/lro-ear thrise-2015

... This image was composed from a series of images taken Oct. 12, when LRO was about 83 miles (134 kilometers) above the moon's farside crater Compton. Capturing an image of the Earth and moon with LRO's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Camera (LROC) instrument is a complicated task. First the spacecraft must be rolled to the side (in this case 67 degrees), then the spacecraft slews with the direction of travel to maximize the width of the lunar horizon in LROC's Narrow Angle Camera image. All this takes place while LRO is traveling faster than 3,580 miles per hour (over 1,600 meters per second) relative to the lunar surface below the spacecraft!

The high-resolution Narrow Angle Camera (NAC) on LRO takes black-and-white images, while the lower resolution Wide Angle Camera (WAC) takes color images, so you might wonder how we got a high-resolution picture of the Earth in color. Since the spacecraft, Earth, and moon are all in motion, we had to do some special processing to create an image that represents the view of the Earth and moon at one particular time. The final Earth image contains both WAC and NAC information. WAC provides the color, and the NAC provides high-resolution detail.

"From the Earth, the daily moonrise and moonset are always inspiring moments," said Mark Robinson of Arizona State University in Tempe, principal investigator for LROC. "However, lunar astronauts will see something very different: viewed from the lunar surface, the Earth never rises or sets. Since the moon is tidally locked, Earth is always in the same spot above the horizon, varying only a small amount with the slight wobble of the moon. The Earth may not move across the 'sky', but the view is not static. Future astronauts will see the continents rotate in and out of view and the ever-changing pattern of clouds will always catch one's eye, at least on the nearside. The Earth is never visible from the farside; imagine a sky with no Earth or moon - what will farside explorers think with no Earth overhead?" ...
Record temperatures in the making in the southern part of New Zealand today:

Weather: Record heat in Dunedin
Monday 21 Dec 2015 2:09 p.m.
Record temperatures are being experienced in the South Island during a heat wave.
Warm air from Australia is sweeping across the country, with temperatures in Dunedin hitting a record 32.7degC this afternoon. The previous December record is 32.2degC.
While the mercury in Ashburton has risen to 33.5degC, in Timaru it's 33.4degC and in Christchurch it's 30.1degC.
Gore has experienced an excessively warm night with temperatures of about 21.6degC to 22.6degC, MetService meteorologist Philippa Murdoch says.
It may be a record for the Southland town where the average December overnight temperature is 8.3degC, she told NZ Newswire. "It's very sultry."
It is forecast to hit 35degC in Blenheim, which would surpass the previous best for December of 33.2degC in 1948.
It had reached 26degC in the Marlborough town in the early afternoon with hotter temperatures still expected.
Temperatures in the North Island are expected to be in the 20s.
On the downside, the heatwave with warm northwesterlies is increasing the fire risk in the east and the fire service is urging caution. ...


Live report about the chase for record temps down there:
Live: Scorcher for the South
Pedley - Still haven't got much rain?

Raining here... LIke it does everyday... Wish I could send you some from South Florida.
Quoting 233. Xulonn:



Actually, meteorological winter began 20 days ago. LINK

You've made over 6400 comments at a weather and climate website, and you don't know that?


Astronomical Winter start 21-22 Dec

Umm you've made over 1800 comments at a weather and climate website and am sure you did a bit of astronomy in school or I hope you did, and you didn't know that
A little humor this holiday season...


Which of these forecast models should I trust for Monday's SE Texas weather? NAM 12 or GFS 18z?
Quoting 241. pureet1948:


Which of these forecast models should I trust for Monday's SE Texas weather? NAM 12 or GFS 18z?




i would say none
Quoting 242. Tazmanian:




i would say none


In that case I should take SPC's marginal risk for SE Texas with a grain of salt, too?

The solstice's did not mean much to me at all, growing up and living the first 42 years of my life in South Florida. BUT now that my family is in Alaska, it is really important, since tomorrow is the SHORTEST day of the year. And when you have so little daylight per day, that is important to know. And it is celebrated in Alaska as well. (As is the summer solstice).

In regards to the blog topic, I have been to the edge of teh Gates to Arctic Park in Alaska. There is no real entrance or any streets, roads, paths, etc... People that want to visit it typically get flown in by plane from Coldfoot, AK. I drove close to Coldfoot - up the Dalton Highway this past summer. And it is amazing that I was in the Arctic circle and it was warm out without a trace of snow/ice anywhere, when we went. The permafrost was melting so fast that it took out the northern end of the Dalton Highway - which was a first.
To be honest, I'm more worried about THIS:



Than THIS:



The caption says: "A cloudy and wet pattern is expected to develop early Monday as a cold front moves into the region and stalls by Tuesday afternoon becoming a focus for rainfall. Fog may be possible each morning along and south of where the front sets up. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop Monday afternoon and continue through Tuesday. The rainfall should be lighter across the north and heavier over the southern portions of the region. Strong thunderstorms may be possible in the coastal waters Monday night."
Quoting 233. Xulonn:



Actually, meteorological winter began 20 days ago. LINK

You've made over 6400 comments at a weather and climate website, and you don't know that?
I hope that was not phrased to be in a rude and sarcastic way. I already did know about Meteorological Winter starting on Dec 1st, but I generally like to really go by the Astronomical Seasons to be honest.
Quoting 238. Dakster:

Pedley - Still haven't got much rain?

Raining here... LIke it does everyday... Wish I could send you some from South Florida.


Lil Bit here, Lil bit there, We are taking whatever comes. Better than having a gully washer, that will come if it must....
Quoting 246. Climate175:
I hope that was not phrased to be in a rude and sarcastic way. I already did know about Meteorological Winter starting on Dec 1st, but I generally like to really go by the Astronomical Seasons to be honest.
Sorry about that - it was a bit snarky.

But I actually am curious as to why you, as a weather enthusiast, would prefer the astronomical definition when meteorology uses it's own more logical definition with respect to weather and seasons. Is it strictly for sentimental reasons? Or to stay in sync with friends and family?

Even as a kid in Chicago in the 1950's, I thought the simple three month seasons made more sense than the varying astronomical pattern. December, January and February were always winter in my eyes, March, April and May were spring, and June, July and August were summer. (Where I live now in the mountains of Western Panama, we have two seasons - wet and dry. Temps seldom get below 60F at night or above 85F during the day throughout the entire year.)

NOAA's explanation of why meteorologists and climatologists don't use astronomical seasons - especially for record keeping and statistics - is concise and logical:

"Because the Earth actually travels around the sun in 365.24 days, an extra day is needed every fourth year, creating what we know as Leap Year. This also causes the exact date of the solstices and equinoxes to vary. Additionally, the elliptical shape of the Earth%u2019s orbit around the sun causes the lengths of the astronomical seasons to vary between 89 and 93 days. These variations in season length and season start would make it very difficult to consistently compare climatological statistics for a particular season from one year to the next. Thus, the meteorological seasons were born."
Quoting 239. wunderkidcayman:



Astronomical Winter start 21-22 Dec

Umm you've made over 1800 comments at a weather and climate website and am sure you did a bit of astronomy in school or I hope you did, and you didn't know that


Ah, but we're not in an astronomy blog, WKC.

Winter started nearly three weeks ago. Now we just have to make it to March 1.
98S trying to pull together on Himawari-8. Click pic for loop. It's blowing up and getting hit hard by shear.
I apologize for the snark in my earlier post - I just thought it was a bit strange to not stick with meteorological seasons on a meteorology website. Many people not involved in science prefer the traditional astronomical season definitions for everyday use, and it seems that a fair number of the regulars here are not heavy-duty science types.

(But strangely enough, I always thought of December, January and February as winter even as a kid growing up in Chicago in the 1950's.)

According to NOAA:

"Because the Earth actually travels around the sun in 365.24 days, an extra day is needed every fourth year, creating what we know as Leap Year. This also causes the exact date of the solstices and equinoxes to vary. Additionally, the elliptical shape of the Earth’s orbit around the sun causes the lengths of the astronomical seasons to vary between 89 and 93 days. These variations in season length and season start would make it very difficult to consistently compare climatological statistics for a particular season from one year to the next. Thus, the meteorological seasons were born."

"Meteorologists and climatologists break the seasons down into groupings of three months based on the annual temperature cycle as well as our calendar. We generally think of winter as the coldest time of the year and summer as the warmest time of the year, with spring and fall being the transition seasons, and that is what the meteorological seasons are based on. Meteorological spring includes March, April, and May; meteorological summer includes June, July, and August; meteorological fall includes September, October, and November; and meteorological winter includes December, January, and February. These seasons were created for meteorological observing and forecasting purposes, and they are more closely tied to our monthly civil calendar than the astronomical seasons are. The length of the seasons is also more consistent for the meteorological seasons, ranging from 90 days for winter of a non-leap year to 92 days for spring and summer. By following the civil calendar and having less variation in season length and season start, it becomes much easier to calculate seasonal statistics from the monthly statistics, both of which are very useful for agriculture, commerce, and a variety of other purposes"
Quoting 252. Xulonn:

I apologize for the snark in my earlier post - I just thought it was a bit strange to not stick with meteorological seasons on a meteorology website. Many people not involved in science prefer the traditional astronomical season definitions for everyday use, and it seems that a fair number of the regulars here are not heavy-duty science types.

(But strangely enough, I always thought of December, January and February as winter even as a kid growing up in Chicago in the 1950's.)

According to NOAA:

"Because the Earth actually travels around the sun in 365.24 days, an extra day is needed every fourth year, creating what we know as Leap Year. This also causes the exact date of the solstices and equinoxes to vary. Additionally, the elliptical shape of the Earth’s orbit around the sun causes the lengths of the astronomical seasons to vary between 89 and 93 days. These variations in season length and season start would make it very difficult to consistently compare climatological statistics for a particular season from one year to the next. Thus, the meteorological seasons were born."

"Meteorologists and climatologists break the seasons down into groupings of three months based on the annual temperature cycle as well as our calendar. We generally think of winter as the coldest time of the year and summer as the warmest time of the year, with spring and fall being the transition seasons, and that is what the meteorological seasons are based on. Meteorological spring includes March, April, and May; meteorological summer includes June, July, and August; meteorological fall includes September, October, and November; and meteorological winter includes December, January, and February. These seasons were created for meteorological observing and forecasting purposes, and they are more closely tied to our monthly civil calendar than the astronomical seasons are. The length of the seasons is also more consistent for the meteorological seasons, ranging from 90 days for winter of a non-leap year to 92 days for spring and summer. By following the civil calendar and having less variation in season length and season start, it becomes much easier to calculate seasonal statistics from the monthly statistics, both of which are very useful for agriculture, commerce, and a variety of other purposes"


Ah mate it ok

After all for me I don't really care winter for me starts when the cold arrives and winter storms start rolling

Quoting 250. Gearsts:


That just looks bad.
Quoting 254. hydrus:

That just looks bad.

Somebody's going to suffer from that system if it plays out.
Quoting 255. PlazaRed:


Somebody's going to suffer from that system if it plays out.
This winter starting to like like 1977-78, although the antecedent weather was much colder that winter, the pattern is almost exact. That sub tropical jet has affected the weather here tremendously, but winter is coming, and so is the severe weather.
The big storm that is forecast to occur from now is a rather rare type. Its known as a " panhandle Hooker " or a " Texas Hooker "..The Wiki link is worth the read..Famous storms that were panhandle hooks are the Armistice Day Blizzard of November 11, 1940,,, and the storm which sank the Edmund Fitzgerald on November 10, 1975.......Link





The Deadly Armistice Day Blizzard...Link
The Great Blizzard of 1978...Link

Wik Excerpt..

Late on January 24, surface maps revealed a moisture-laden Gulf Low developing over the Southern United States, while a separate and unrelated low-pressure system was present over the Upper Midwest. In about 24 hours, the merger of the subtropical jet stream (containing a wind max of 130 knots) and polar jet stream (containing a wind max of 110 knots) would lead the low-pressure system to undergo bombogenesis as it moved rapidly northward during the evening of January 25 record low pressures were logged across parts of the South and Mid-Atlantic. Bombogenesis events require a storm's central pressure to drop more than 24 millibars in 24 hours; the Great Blizzard deepened by a remarkable 40 millibars in that span of time.
China landslide: Rescuers search for 91 people still missing
BBC, 2 hours ago
... China's land and resources ministry said in a statement on its website that initial investigations showed the landslide happened when a huge mound of soil, cement chunks and other construction waste became unstable.
"Because the mound was very large, and the angle of its slope was overly steep, this led to it losing stability and collapsing," it said.
People's Daily said the mound had accumulated at a stone quarry that had been converted into a dumping area with its entrance and exit facing an industrial district. ...


New Zealand:
Christchurch temperature hits record December high of 36.1C
Last updated 18:28, December 21 2015
Christchurch has recorded its hottest December day on record, prompting firefighters to warn people to use "common sense" as the South Island continues to heat up.
The temperature in the city peaked at 36.1 degrees Celsius [97F] about 4pm yesterday, breaking the previous December record of 35.4C, set in 1975.
Total fire bans were already in place for Christchurch, Waimakariri, and Selwyn, while restrictions had been ordered for Ashburton, Ashley and Hurunui.
Emergency services feared a long, hot summer ahead, with the Christchurch City Council warning residents to start conserving water or face restrictions. ...


Sydney weather: city records hottest December night in 15 years
Mr McBurney said Sunday night was the hottest December night in Sydney since 2000, and the warmest night of any month since January 2013.
Morning all. I woke up to windy showers this a.m., but it looks likely to clear today and stay that way through Christmas.



A cold front on Friday night brought Nassau overcast and windy conditions for most of the weekend.
not good for Northeast,first the 24 then a big one on the 29th etc..
Quoting 244. Dakster:

The solstice's did not mean much to me at all, growing up and living the first 42 years of my life in South Florida. BUT now that my family is in Alaska, it is really important, since tomorrow is the SHORTEST day of the year. And when you have so little daylight per day, that is important to know. And it is celebrated in Alaska as well.
Actually, it's celebrated around the world. It was originally in Roman times the festival of Dies Natalis Solis Invicti--that is, The Birthday of the Unconquered Sun, the glorious annual start of increasingly longer days and shorter nights. That festival was banished by a succession of no-fun-allowed Catholic Popes (as were other pagan holidays, such as Easter), with dates moved around to accommodate the Church calendar, though many of its customs and traditions are with us still, all tightly enmeshed in the big, messy, very fluid, mutli-cultural, multiple-deity mashup we now call Christmas: Yule logs (connected to the god Odin and the "Wild Hunt"), tree worship (a once-sinful pagan carryover), holly (heathen), mistletoe (from the Druid ritual of Oak and Mistletoe), and wassailing (another Druid leftover, this one a practice to re-awaken the wintering apple trees and drive off evil spirits to ensure a good harvest of fruit the following year).

In short, when you're unwrapping gifts this Friday morning, marvel at the thought that you're participating in a sacred ritual that was old thousands of years before a certain baby was born in a Bethlehem stable. And try to give just a little thought to Odin, who made all this possible... ;-)
Quoting 240. GeoffreyWPB:

A little humor this holiday season...




Then we'd have a whole slice of virgin land to build on
Good Morning Friends. We finally had two days of morning lows in the 30's in Tallahassee for the first time this year over the weekend but it warmed up nicely in the afternoons. Looking at 50's in the am this Christmas Week and a high nearing the 80's with a forecast high of 82 on Christmas Day.

Still waiting on the wet and cool El Nino pattern for the Northern Gulf and Florida that has yet to materialize..................................Don't know if I should be happy or extremely worried.............

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database%uFFFD
Missed Mr. Henson's post above over the weekend...........The quote below and a telling and remarkable statistic:


The polar year running from October 2014 to September 2015 was the warmest in more than a century of recordkeeping, with the region now 3°C (5.4°F) warmer than it was at the start of the 20th century. 
The Conus forecast and look for today; as least the California/NW region is getting some rain and snowpack that will help ease some of the drought issues:


Current U.S. Drought Monitor

And finally, here are some coastal SST charts for the US; cooler waters than last year off the coast from New York to New England at this time so not much of a "snow effect" like we saw in Boston last year because of the warm waters/gulf stream closer to the coast. Conversely, the very warm E-Pac waters off of Mexico/Baha, and the jet stream flow, is keeping a warm and dry air pattern flowing into the Northern Gulf States:

Quoting 265. Neapolitan:

... though many of its customs and traditions are with us still, all tightly enmeshed in the big, messy, very fluid, mutli-cultural, multiple-deity mashup we now call Christmas ...

Yeah, this one went really well :-)) "Test everything; hold fast what is good." 1 Thess 5,21
despite the main chinese investor being in chinese jail the nicaraquan canal is proceeding slowly. while in west nica last week i saw two dredgers being towed down to the expected entrance of the canal. like most 3rd world countries environmental concerns are overlooked. lets hope they dont make too big of a mess of this huge job.
Quoting 273. islander101010:

despite the main chinese investor being in chinese jail the nicaraquan canal is proceeding slowly. while in west nica last week i saw two dredgers being towed down to the expected entrance of the canal. like most 3rd world countries environmental concerns are overlooked. lets hope they dont make too big of a mess of this huge job.


HKND, still in what it calls the "conception phase" of the project, is to start building a port early next year on Nicaragua's Caribbean coast, in Punta Gorda, to bring in the heavy machinery needed for the next stage.

The Australian head of the project for the HKND, Bill Wild, said late last month that work was "behind schedule" by nearly a year.

He said late approval of the environmental impact study was to blame.

That study, carried out for HKND by a British firm, Environmental Resources Management, concluded that the canal would have "significant" consequences, especially for Lake Nicaragua. Parts of the canal are also to be built on earthquake-prone terrain, it noted.

But it stated that, if executed correctly, the canal would have a "positive" impact for the country.

A hydrology expert, Salvador Montenegro, highlighted the problem of opening up Lake Nicaragua, whose shallow waters lie above an ancient tectonic zone of seismic and volcanic activity.

An Asian affairs analyst, Alberto Aleman, said HKND has left open "many questions about the environmental aspects" of the project.

"Apparently not enough capital, not enough investment has been raised, and they have not been able to come up with a study able to dispel all the doubts," he told AFP.
276. MahFL
Quoting 274. fmbill:



"Apparently not enough capital, not enough investment has been raised, and they have not been able to come up with a study able to dispel all the doubts," he told AFP.



What could go wrong ?....
252. Xulonn

not heavy-duty science types

Some people do this as a small hobby on the side that they don't get paid for and maybe just enjoy or are fascinated by extreme weather.No one is going to die on here if they don't go by meteorological winter.
Quoting 265. Neapolitan:

Actually, it's celebrated around the world. It was originally in Roman times the festival of Dies Natalis Solis Invicti--that is, The Birthday of the Unconquered Sun, the glorious annual start of increasingly longer days and shorter nights. That festival was banished by a succession of no-fun-allowed Catholic Popes (as were other pagan holidays, such as Easter), with dates moved around to accommodate the Church calendar, though many of its customs and traditions are with us still, all tightly enmeshed in the big, messy, very fluid, mutli-cultural, multiple-deity mashup we now call Christmas: Yule logs (connected to the god Odin and the "Wild Hunt"), tree worship (a once-sinful pagan carryover), holly (heathen), mistletoe (from the Druid ritual of Oak and Mistletoe), and wassailing (another Druid leftover, this one a practice to re-awaken the wintering apple trees and drive off evil spirits to ensure a good harvest of fruit the following year).

In short, when you're unwrapping gifts this Friday morning, marvel at the thought that you're participating in a sacred ritual that was old thousands of years before a certain baby was born in a Bethlehem stable. And try to give just a little thought to Odin, who made all this possible... ;-)
You missed the part of the tradition based on hallucinogenic mushrooms! (No joke)

The amanita muscaria mushroom %uD83C%uDF44 which is the classic red and white Mario toadstool is the basis of many ancient "Christmas" traditions. The mushroom was a sacrament of Siberian tribals and only grew on the roots of conifers in the warmer months. So in the winter the shamans would bring trees inside their yurts to allow the mushrooms to continue to grow in warmth. Hence Christmas tree and our three Christmas colors: red, white, and green.

The mushrooms can only be consumed after they're dried as they contain a toxic substance, so they were hung in socks (stockings) in front of a fire to dry!

Rudolph also possibly comes from this same basis because reindeer ate these and the hallucinogenic substance was passed through the urine and often consumed as well. Oh gee lol

Merry Christmas to everyone!
Quoting 279. PensacolaDoug:


Leave it to Nea to take the "Christ" out of Christmas.
i stopped reading into that a long time ago.No one here is going to make me change my beliefs.They don't like it oh well.....On that note I'm off for the day.We have a Holiday get together for the boys and girls club along with their families this afternoon.Chow.
Quoting 279. PensacolaDoug:


Leave it to Nea to take the "Christ" out of Christmas.
Well, I don't know about that. But I *would* like to know at whom we can point fingers for taking Sol out of "Dies Natalis Solis Invicti". Or, for that matter, taking the dawn goddess Oestre out of Easter... ;-)

My point was, those who don't think about the beautiful origin of some of our holiday customs and traditions don't realize that when they're standing around a Yule fire while singing carols and drinking wassail, or decorating their trees, or telling stories about St. Nicholas, they're really celebrating the solstice and all the good things that surround it.
Quoting 280. FLWeatherFreak91:

You missed the part of the tradition based on hallucinogenic mushrooms! (No joke)

The amanita muscaria mushroom %uD83C%uDF44 which is the classic red and white Mario toadstool is the basis of many ancient "Christmas" traditions. The mushroom was a sacrament of Siberian tribals and only grew on the roots of conifers in the warmer months. So in the winter the shamans would bring trees inside their yurts to allow the mushrooms to continue to grow in warmth. Hence Christmas tree and our three Christmas colors: red, white, and green.

The mushrooms can only be consumed after they're dried as they contain a toxic substance, so they were hung in socks (stockings) in front of a fire to dry!

Rudolph also possibly comes from this same basis because reindeer ate these and the hallucinogenic substance was passed through the urine and often consumed as well. Oh gee lol

Merry Christmas to everyone!
That's awesome. The thing about those who claim that people "take the Christ out of Christmas" forget is that many of their celebrations are based upon the celebrations of those who came before them. Christians adopted many of the seasonal traditions (Christmas and Easter) from pagan celebrations as a method to get people to convert to Christianity.

Gotta run to the cow pasture to find stocking-stuffers for all my coworkers! Cheers.
Quoting 278. PensacolaDoug:
Leave it to Nea to take the "Christ" out of Christmas.
Actually, Nea told us how Christ was put into Christmas, and how Christians adopted "pagan" winter solstice celebrations. December 25 was an ancient approximation of the Winter Solstice, and only in more recent centuries was it discovered to be December 21 +/- a day or so.

Christmas - even for Christians - is now extremely commercialized, and it has lost much of it's religious aspect and has become a secular holiday. Jesus was actually born in September or October according to many Christian researchers and historians.

So let us celebrate the solstice today, and those of you in the northern regions of the earth can look forward to your daylight hours slowly getting longer, and the sun getting a little higher in the sky every day. This happens even as you prepare to deal with the heart of winter, which occurs even as the days get longer.

And now I'm going to play my Celtic and other international music Christmas CD's - mostly Christian oriented - as I set up to turn some beautiful tropical woods on my lathe on my covered patio. Outside, it is 71°F and breezy, and inside 72° - just another day in paradise.

Although I don't have the view in the below photo, it was taken within a kilometer of my home, and is what I see if I walk about two blocks down my dead-end street. ¡La vida es buena en Boquete!

Quoting 282. Neapolitan:

Well, I don't know about that. But I *would* like to know at whom we can point fingers for taking Sol out of "Dies Natalis Solis Invicti". Or, for that matter, taking the dawn goddess Oestre out of Easter... ;-)

My point was, those who don't think about the beautiful origin of some of our holiday customs and traditions don't realize that when they're standing around a Yule fire while singing carols and drinking wassail, or decorating their trees, or telling stories about St. Nicholas, they're really celebrating the solstice and all the good things that surround it.
Christmas in particular has been moved to accommodate European traditions. Christian scholars generally agree that Jesus' birth was more likely to have taken place in March, when shepherds were more likely to have taken their flocks out to the fields. I think for early church organizers the symbolic and psychological value of placing the birthday of God at the winter solstice would have been irresistible. Additionally it would have had the added advantage of isolating the REALLY important feast day, Easter, from the lesser holy day. Keep in mind that Christmas has only risen to its current prominence in the last few centuries. Until at least 1500, or for more than a millennium, Pascal celebration was the big deal.

I also think wx and climate has had a big effect on keeping Christmas alive and popular.
Quoting 274. fmbill:



HKND, still in what it calls the "conception phase" of the project, is to start building a port early next year on Nicaragua's Caribbean coast, in Punta Gorda, to bring in the heavy machinery needed for the next stage.

The Australian head of the project for the HKND, Bill Wild, said late last month that work was "behind schedule" by nearly a year.

He said late approval of the environmental impact study was to blame.

That study, carried out for HKND by a British firm, Environmental Resources Management, concluded that the canal would have "significant" consequences, especially for Lake Nicaragua. Parts of the canal are also to be built on earthquake-prone terrain, it noted.

But it stated that, if executed correctly, the canal would have a "positive" impact for the country.

A hydrology expert, Salvador Montenegro, highlighted the problem of opening up Lake Nicaragua, whose shallow waters lie above an ancient tectonic zone of seismic and volcanic activity.

An Asian affairs analyst, Alberto Aleman, said HKND has left open "many questions about the environmental aspects" of the project.

"Apparently not enough capital, not enough investment has been raised, and they have not been able to come up with a study able to dispel all the doubts," he told AFP.



I wish I could remember where I read this - NY Times? - but there was recently a great article about the problems Chinese corporations are having now that they're investing so much more in the US and other foreign markets. Things like "environmental impact statements" are, to them, these wholly fictitious things that are just ignored. There was one project that had to be scrapped because the Chinese investors just blew off the requisite environmental research entirely.

On the subject of religious holidays, bear in mind that until recently Easter was by far the most important holiday on the Christian calendar. Many people began their year from Easter rather than from January 1. Christmas was like Lincoln's Birthday or something to Easter's Thanksgiving/Fourth of July/Christmas.
BTW Oestre gets tagged because it lines up with Jewish Passover, which is when Jesus death and resurrection took place. Passover, iirc, is tied to spring equinox. So more than one of our modern celebrations is linked to this cycle.

Doesn't take the Christ out of Christmas for me. Most of the Christmas folderol was IMO not particularly about Christ anyway. I personally think the original Saint Nickolas would roll in his grave - if his bones were still there - at the thought of the modern Santa ...😁
Here's one for the attorneys in our midst:

A guest post from James Thornton and Howard Covington, chief executive and trustee, respectively, of the environmental law firm ClientEarth.

Just over a week ago, representatives of 196 parties around the world filed into a final plenary session at the Paris climate talks. After a last-minute hiccup, the gavel came down, and the Paris agreement on climate change was finally adopted.

The agreement requires countries to update and enhance their targets to cut greenhouse gases every five years, but the targets themselves are not legally-binding. In the absence of enforceable commitments to reduce emissions, concerned citizens may look to the courts for an alternative way of driving emissions cuts by countries or companies.

We take a look at how litigation – the process of resolving disputes in a court of law – could have an important role to play.

Two aspects of causation

Consider this example: how could climate litigation be used to prove liability for a company, say a fossil fuel giant, towards a claimant for climate change damage?

A case like this would fall under tort law, which is used to determine liability when actions by one person or company have caused some specific harm to another. A claimant in a climate change case will have to convince the court of two things.

First, the court will have to accept that greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are the principal driver of climate change. A few months ago, we saw judges in the Netherlands do exactly that. A case was brought against the Dutch government by the Urgenda Foundation and 900 Dutch citizens, who argued that the government was in the wrong for not taking sufficient action to prevent foreseeable harm from climate change.

The judges declared human-caused climate change as beyond dispute, and ordered the Dutch government to strengthen its plans to cut emissions. The government is currently appealing the decision.

The second aspect of causation is more complicated to prove. The claimant needs to convince the court that human-caused emissions are behind the climate event alleged to have caused harm.



More at CarbonBrief ...

The 4 seasons in Miami, FL..... Hot, Hotter, Hurricane and a random day in February.

Quoting 289. AreadersinceWilma:

The 4 seasons in Miami, FL..... Hot, Hotter, Hurricane and a random day in February.




Contrary to myth, the Mid Atlantic region has four very well defined seasons which fit the classical
descriptions and are each about a quarter of the year.

One of the Charles kings of Great Britain described the british summer as

"Three fine days and a thunderstorm"

Vermont seasons (two)

July and winter.


Moving from Virginia to Penn State in November 1978, I was struck the following year by the reality that June there is really a Spring, not a Summer month. July and August are reliably summery most days. Apart from the lateness of late Spring, the seasons were colder but like the mid Atlantic.





Quoting 288. JohnLonergan:

Here's one for the attorneys in our midst:

A guest post from James Thornton and Howard Covington, chief executive and trustee, respectively, of the environmental law firm ClientEarth.

Just over a week ago, representatives of 196 parties around the world filed into a final plenary session at the Paris climate talks. After a last-minute hiccup, the gavel came down, and the Paris agreement on climate change was finally adopted.

The agreement requires countries to update and enhance their targets to cut greenhouse gases every five years, but the targets themselves are not legally-binding. In the absence of enforceable commitments to reduce emissions, concerned citizens may look to the courts for an alternative way of driving emissions cuts by countries or companies.

We take a look at how litigation – the process of resolving disputes in a court of law – could have an important role to play.

Two aspects of causation

Consider this example: how could climate litigation be used to prove liability for a company, say a fossil fuel giant, towards a claimant for climate change damage?

A case like this would fall under tort law, which is used to determine liability when actions by one person or company have caused some specific harm to another. A claimant in a climate change case will have to convince the court of two things.

First, the court will have to accept that greenhouse gas emissions from human activity are the principal driver of climate change. A few months ago, we saw judges in the Netherlands do exactly that. A case was brought against the Dutch government by the Urgenda Foundation and 900 Dutch citizens, who argued that the government was in the wrong for not taking sufficient action to prevent foreseeable harm from climate change.

The judges declared human-caused climate change as beyond dispute, and ordered the Dutch government to strengthen its plans to cut emissions. The government is currently appealing the decision.

The second aspect of causation is more complicated to prove. The claimant needs to convince the court that human-caused emissions are behind the climate event alleged to have caused harm.



More at CarbonBrief ...




I haven't read the rest yet, but my kneejerk reaction is that American tort law is extremely ill-suited to this type of thing. There are legal principles like standing and remoteness at play that are specifically designed to prevent the general public from suing a defendant over a generalized injury that pretty much everyone sort of has and that can be probably attributed to something the defendant probably did more or less.

Think of the tobacco litigation, for example. Smokers who are diagnosed with smoking-related illness can bring a suit against the makers of the cigarettes they smoked for their smoking-related illnesses caused by using those products. People who don't like cigarette smoke, on the other hand, or who are upset that health care costs have gone up due to smoking, cannot sue "the tobacco companies" for creating that problem.

This is basically akin to somebody suing "our consumer culture" because they get depressed at Christmastime.

On the climate change front, I don't for the life of me see how you could prove that your specific problem was caused by some kind of global climate change that was caused by any particular defendant. If your claim is some sort of generalized "the world sucks" complaint, how are you any worse off than everyone else on the planet? Even the most basic pleading requirements for a complaint require a level of particularized allegations of fault that you could never hope to approach in this instance.
Quoting 275. hydrus:




Quite dry indeed for the northern half of East Central FL.
293. MahFL
Quoting 290. georgevandenberghe:



One of the Charles kings of Great Britain described the british summer as

"Three fine days and a thunderstorm"



Been there done that, totally true some years.
By the way, I have been extremely entertained by learning about the origins of all of our Christmas traditions on here. I will have some interesting stories to tell the family at Christmas dinner this year!
"Winter"

Quoting 278. PensacolaDoug:

.


Same ol quote,eh?

: P
Oops: http://www.foxnews.com/leisure/2015/12/21/climate- talks-chef-fined-for-destroying-forest/?intcmp=hpf f

Climate talks chef destroys environment around his restaurant.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 298. WunderAlertBot:

JeffMasters has created a new entry.

Thank you,Dr. Masters. A great holiday to all. Merry Christmas. Peace. :)
And the parade? of storms continues Christmas Eve/Christmas Day for Soo Cal



Another storm system will arrive in Southern California late in the day on Christmas Eve. This storm will bring rain and mountain snow to the region with travel impacts expected for many of the local highways and interstates. Rain will make travel difficult along the major interstates, with mountain snow bringing impacts to several state and county highways. Be alert to changing weather conditions so you don’t get caught off guard during the holiday festivities.