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Colin takes aim at Bermuda; the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:45 PM GMT on August 06, 2010

A reborn Tropical Storm Colin is taking aim at Bermuda, and should bring tropical storm force winds to the island by Saturday afternoon. Colin continues to pass through an unfavorable environment for development--an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. High wind shear of 20 - 25 knots has exposed the surface circulation to view, as seen in recent satellite imagery. Colin's heavy thunderstorm activity is all on the east side of the storm, and the associated rains can now be seen approaching the island on Bermuda radar.

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop to the low to moderate range, 5 - 15 knots, tonight through Saturday afternoon. This relaxation of shear prompts the intensity models to predict that Colin will strengthen to a 50 - 70 mph tropical storm by Sunday. With the forecast path of the storm predicted to take Colin just west of Bermuda, the island will be in the strong right front quadrant of the storm, and may see wind gusts in excess of hurricane force, 74 mph. After its encounter with Bermuda, Colin will head towards Newfoundland, and it is possible the storm could bring tropical storm force winds to the island on Monday. However, wind shear will be on the increase again beginning Saturday night, and it is unlikely Colin will be a hurricane when it makes it closest approach to Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin.

93L
A tropical wave (Invest 93) about 700 miles west of the Cape Verdes Islands off the coast of Africa is moving northwest at 10 mph. Wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots over 93L, which is low enough to allow some slow development. This system currently does not appear to be a concern to any land areas over the next seven days. NHC is giving a 40% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Sunday morning. The GFS and NOGAPS models predict 93L will become a tropical depression.


Figure 2. Smoke from fires in Russia on August 4 covers an area over 3,000 km (1860 miles) across. If the smoke were in the United States, it would extend approximately from San Francisco to Chicago. Visibility in Moscow dropped to 20 meters (0.01 miles) on August 4, and health officials warned that everyone, including healthy people, needed to take preventative measures such as staying indoors or wearing a mask outdoors. Image credit: NASA.

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 continues
One of the most remarkable weather events of my lifetime is unfolding this summer in Russia, where an unprecedented heat wave has brought another day of 102°F heat to the nation's capital. At 3:30 pm local time today, the mercury hit 39°C (102.2°F) at Moscow's Domodedovo Airport. Moscow had never recorded a temperature exceeding 100°F prior to this year, and today marks the second time the city has beaten the 100°F mark. The first time was on July 29, when the Moscow observatory recorded 100.8°C and Baltschug, another official downtown Moscow weather site, hit an astonishing 102.2°F (39.0°C). Prior to this year, the hottest temperature in Moscow's history was 37.2°C (99°F), set in August 1920. The Moscow Observatory has now matched or exceeded this 1920 all-time record five times in the past eleven days, including today. The 2010 average July temperature in Moscow was 7.8°C (14°F) above normal, smashing the previous record for hottest July, set in 1938 (5.3°C above normal.) July 2010 also set the record for most July days in excess of 30°C--twenty-two. The previous record was 13 such days, set in July 1972. The past 24 days in a row have exceeded 30°C in Moscow, and there is no relief in sight--the latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures near 100°F (37.8°C) for the next seven days. It is stunning to me that the country whose famous winters stopped the armies of Napoleon and Hitler is experiencing day after day of heat near 100°F, with no end in sight.

Thousands of deaths, severe fires, and the threat of radioactive contamination
The extreme heat has led to thousands of premature deaths in Russia. According to Yevgenia Smirnova, an official from the Moscow registry office, "We recorded 14,340 deaths in Moscow in July, that is 4,824 deaths more than in July, 2009." Undoubtedly thousands of additional premature deaths have occurred in the rest of Russia as a result of the heat. The heat has also caused the worst drought conditions in European Russia in a half-century, prompting the Russian government to suspend wheat exports. The drought has caused extreme fire danger over most of European Russia (Figure 3), and fires in Russia have killed at least 50 people in the past week and leveled thousands of homes. The fires are the worst since 1972, when massive forest and peat bog fires burned an area of 100,000 square km and killed at 104 people in the Moscow region alone. Smoke from the current fires spans a region over 3,000 km (1,860 miles) from east to west, approximately the distance from San Francisco to Chicago. Dozens of flights were canceled at Moscow's airports today, thanks to visibilities of 300 meters in smoke. Also of concern is fires that have hit the Bryansk region of western Russia, which suffered radioactive contamination from the Chernobyl nuclear disaster in nearby Ukraine. There are fears that fires may burn through the contaminated area, releasing harmful radiation into the atmosphere.


Figure 3. Fire danger in Russia for August 5, 2010. Extreme fire danger (Category 5, red colors) was seen over much of the European portion of Russia. Image credit: Hydrometcentre, Russia.

Why has Russia's heat wave been so long and intense?
Dr. Rob Carver has done a detailed analysis of the remarkable Russian heat wave in his latest post, The Great Russian Heat Wave of July 2010. A persistent jet stream pattern has set up over Europe, thanks to a phenomena known as blocking. A ridge of high pressure has remained anchored over Russia, and the hot and dry conditions have created helped intensify this ridge in a positive feedback loop. As a result, soil moisture in some portions of European Russia has dropped to levels one would expect only once every 500 years.

Next update
I'll have an update on Saturday morning.

Jeff Masters

Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

2001. IKE
Quoting NotJFV:

lol.. good Sat morning music... it just lingers in the backround...... I'm in a dire mood.....
even though theres a lot of action it seems to me that everything is kinda busting like a baloon this year...yes I know it's only August...


This would be considered a normal season...so far.

Normal...3rd named system by Aug. 13th.
Normal...first hurricane by Aug. 10th.

Normal season would have 2 more in August and then 3 in September.

I do agree that systems seem to be fighting elements quite a bit...since Alex.

There's been so much talk of record breaking SST's...low shear...La Nina..."18 named systems for the season"..it makes this season seem lacking something. I'm not sure what it is....IF there is something.

One thing that won't stop is time. There's only so much of it in any season.

Outlook for the next 7-10 days from looking at computer models is...no major threats to anyone. Subject to change.
2002. NotJFV
Link

Im gonna bust out my dj moves now.
A synopsis of the season so far.
2003. tkeith
2001. IKE

This would be considered a normal season...so far
Outlook for the next 7-10 days from looking at computer models is...no major threats to anyone. Subject to change.


So Far So Good....
2004. aquak9
whoa cotilion- ballroom blitz? Heavy stuff so early, think I'll stick w/the straits...

Ike I compared it to an ice cream sundae. Ice cream, hot fudge, a cherry = perfect.

But this Season™ is like three flavors of ice cream, hot fudge, nuts, whipped cream, sprinkles, strawberries, bananas, pineapples, and circus music in the background.

Kinda overloaded, and it's just too much of a good thing.
Quoting StormW:
EXPLANATION OF THE RELATION OF THE NAO and STORM RECURVATURE


Thanks StormW,
Does the NAO pretty much stay neg. to neutral
during say Nov to Mar? are does this keep in a trainsition stage for theis month's?
Off to work. Everyone have a Blessed Day.
2007. aquak9
not J_V- that was good, "guess that's why they call it window-pain"

I'm way too old to enjoy that but I did anyway
2008. bird72
13lat 30long?????

Invest???? TD????????

NHC, is very slow this year.......
Quoting aquak9:
whoa cotilion- ballroom blitz? Heavy stuff so early, think I'll stick w/the straits...

Ike I compared it to an ice cream sundae. Ice cream, hot fudge, a cherry = perfect.

But this Season%u2122 is like three flavors of ice cream, hot fudge, nuts, whipped cream, sprinkles, strawberries, bananas, pineapples, and circus music in the background.

Kinda overloaded, and it's just too much of a good thing.


Morning.

Well, I did add some classical composition before to even it out...

And, it's afternoon here. :)

But, here's something softer to wake gently to...
2012. IKE
You may be correct aquak, about too much of a good thing.

Not too hard to take this morning....

Quoting StormW:



Hmmm....lots of green I see
2015. aquak9
cotilion- got it in the backgorund, yeah that's good wake-up music. I'll have some LinkinPark/Jay-Z later on (go on brush your shoulders off)

Hey Ike! thank you SO MUCH for sharing- we got 0.13 last night. You are so generous!

(sarcasm flag ON)
2016. breald
Morning Everyone. Nothing much has changed in the tropics.
Happy Birthday...To ME! :)
2019. aquak9
Quoting breald:
Morning Everyone. Nothing much has changed in the tropics.


g'morning Bre! Yes I think we should enjoy this as long as possible. Like, till November would work for me. :)
2021. IKE
Clothes off again?







LOOK AT 30 WEST WOW
Quoting aquak9:


g'morning Bre! Yes I think we should enjoy this as long as possible. Like, till November would work for me. :)


Morning, ya i wish but, don't get too use to it. If you know what i mean.
Quoting TampaSpin:


Morning, ya i wish but, don't get too use to it. If you know what i mean.
Morning Tampa i think everyone is getting false sense of security based on events to date. it only takes one "REAL" storm for any season to be bad
Yes, I am curious about 30 West too
Quoting StormW:


It varies...here's a table which provides the monthly means since 1950, each year beginning with January:

NAO Tabular Format


Umm; i think i got it, just looking at the numbers anyway, but looking at all the figures
to get to these numbers is a lot to wrap my mind around right now.
Thanks for the response i'm planning on looking at this in more detail though, looks like a good tool.
Thanks
Well, with cold PDO, some of the warmest AMO numbers ever (in line with 1998 and higher figures than 2005), a strong La Nina coming...

I wouldn't want to signal the 'bust' of the season until September. 1998 didn't get kicked off until mid August, and most of the 1950 seasons didn't get kicked off until mid August either (similar condition: warm waters, lots of warm water, and PDO recently changed to cold, and strong La Ninas.).

If things are still quiet in a month, then we'll see. But, history tells us...
2028. breald
Quoting TampaSpin:


Morning, ya i wish but, don't get too use to it. If you know what i mean.


I hear you guys. We are in the beginning of the active season.

Be back later this afternoon. Have a good one.
Ladies and Gents, get your rod and reel instead of your computers for a fishy season.
My take:

Judging from today's 12UTC multiplatform satellite surface wind analysis, I believe 93L could very well receive a TD designation later today.

It also wouldn't surprise me at all to see the area a few hundred miles to 93L's southeast get at least a colored circle later today; it appears very healthy on satellite, which it should, as this is the energy from that beautiful, robust wave that slid off the African coast two days ago.

92L lost most of its convection overnight, though while it's flaring up again this morning, it really appears to have no time to make a name for itself, at least not unless/until it crosses the Yucatan still somewhat intact.

As others have noted, the tail end of the cold front coming off the eastern seaboard will need to be watched for the next couple of days for signs of development, but right now there seems to be nothing.

Colin? Well, Colin's Colin. What more can I say? :-)
Quoting WindynEYW:
Morning Tampa i think everyone is getting false sense of security based on events to date. it only takes one "REAL" storm for any season to be bad


Yep i agree we have been lucky thus far that most of the spin action has been in the Atlantic as shear has been running mostly below average slightly there, while shear in the Caribbean and GOM is running much more below average. Luck will be running out soon i'm sure.
Morning, all. Morning, Aqua - how'd you like Bela Fleck and the Flecktones?

Ike, I always like it when you indicate another stress free week ahead, LOL.


Quoting Eugeniopr:
Ladies and Gents, get your rod and reel instead of your computers for a fishy season.


Afraid there will be a few of those critters on the bank before Turkey Day. As the Fish might say instead of the Cow ......"EAT MORE TURKEY" i hope.
2034. NotJFV
Link

ok aqua... here you go!!! I might get a ban now....
hmmmm... ok how can I link this to tropical weather..... I can't..
I'm self imposing a ban on myself then, see ya in 24
Look how shear is running below average in the Caribbean and GOM.



2036. IKE
Quoting CoopsWife:
Morning, all. Morning, Aqua - how'd you like Bela Fleck and the Flecktones?

Ike, I always like it when you indicate another stress free week ahead, LOL.




Thanks:) That is subject to change.
I always listen to everyone's opinions, however i listen to some more than others, if Levi or StormW speak i listen & read everyone, theirs are trusted fact backed illustrated , the cv season is just starting even though the itcz is low the sal is north & the a/b high is as well with sst's above normal especially in the gom & surrounding western carib, we have all the ingrediants for systems to grow with RI, depending on steering currents, the late season is western carib is less likely to produce "fish", ( back to lurking)
Quoting StormW:

Storm, is there a reason for the MJO charts not being updated since Wednesday?
2039. aquak9
NotJ_V- awesome song, but that commercial at the beginning liked to kill me!! Good song to scream the lyrics to. Always got LinkinPark, or some Korn for music when I gotta go on a RedCross call.

Coops- I do enjoy BF&F. Love the way they incorporate the african influence and instruments in, as well.

Walking a thin line here folks- I don't need another ban- we're hoping for some good thunderboomers here in NE Fla today. Need rain bad. Hoping also for some good churning action at the local coastline, too.
2040. QMiami
from local 10 in miami. interesting all morning they have been circling the blob at 30 west as the 40% and how it is looking better. not circling where nhc has 93l?

Quoting TampaSpin:
Look how shear is running below average in the Caribbean and GOM.




That might come back to haunt us.
I am still getting some bad vibes coming from 93L ....Models are not as agreeable now as they once was.....i am starting to believe it will get trapped under the high and not move as far north as first thought.




Quoting TampaSpin:
I am still getting some bad vibes coming from 93L ....Models are not as agreeable now as they once was.....i am starting to believe it will get trapped under the high and not move as far north as first thought.




timing is everything, if it slows down isnt drawn northward, has more time to strengthen & isnt drawn into the gap between highs it could continue further west, the models seem to be struggling with it.
Good morning everyone
Quoting Eugeniopr:
Ladies and Gents, get your rod and reel instead of your computers for a fishy season.


Lack of patience, to early to say, ect.
morning ms
2048. aquak9
tampa- do you think there's any possibilty for a loop? Older BAM suite had such a hard dive to the SE a day or two ago.
93L looks better this am.
Impressive wave behind 93L, this is the same one that was very impressive coming off the African coast.
2051. NotJFV
on that note y'all have an opulent day... I gotta go walk my little Giraffe
00z ECMWF latching on to a system in the Gulf by 120 hours.

Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:






LOOK AT 30 WEST WOW

I'll say "wow" when it actually turns into something significant...and based on this season so far, the chances of that are quite low IMO.
Quoting TampaSpin:
I am still getting some bad vibes coming from 93L ....Models are not as agreeable now as they once was.....i am starting to believe it will get trapped under the high and not move as far north as first thought.






Thought about that myself too
2055. aquak9
Quoting NotJFV:
on that note y'all have an opulent day... I gotta go walk my little Giraffe


BWWAHAHAHAA!!! I LOVES THAT COMMERCIAL!!
Howdy everyone...
2057. Patrap
Presslord on TV with the New Portlight Response Trailer and more.

Note the wunderground Logos too.





TravelMets's WunderBlog



TravelMets Podcast with the Portlight Info as well,from Thursday show Premiere.
Still look to be coming from a cutoff low due to our gulf/east coast trough?

Quoting CybrTeddy:
00z ECMWF latching on to a system in the Gulf by 120 hours.

Quoting aquak9:
tampa- do you think there's any possibilty for a loop? Older BAM suite had such a hard dive to the SE a day or two ago.


I don't think a loop will occur....but, i am sure less than 50% in my mind that its going to go harmlessly out to sea as models first thought. Not really sure as it move West much further that another gap will open...as it is now currently due South of the hole shot.....I believe 93L is coming much further West now.



92L just dried up and blew away!
Snow in Brazil, below zero Celsius in the River Plate and tropical fish frozen

For a second day running it snowed Wednesday in Southern Brazil and in twelve of Argentinas 24 provinces including parts of Buenos Aires as a consequence of the polar front covering most of the continents southern cone with zero and below zero temperatures.


Light snow storms in Brazil were concentrated in areas of Rio Grande do Sul and Santa Catarina. O Globo network aired snow flakes falling in early morning, cars covered with a thin white coating and some roads dangerously slippery because of ice.

In Argentina the phenomenon extended to Northern provinces, geographically sub-tropical while in the Patagonia and along the Andes snow reached over a metre deep, isolating villages and causing yet undisclosed losses to crops and livestock.

The extreme cold weather is expected to peak Thursday dawn with below zero temperatures and even lower with the wind chill factor.

After a harsh weekend, Argentinas National Weather Forecast Service announced the cold weather is expected to stay until Thursday although it could again reach a freezing peak over the coming week-end.

On Wednesday a northbound cold front hit the Patagonia and central Argentine regions. In Patagonia, minimum temperatures went as low as minus 10 Celsius with even lower numbers in snowy regions, while maximum temps were in the range of zero to 7 Celsius.

Because of the freezing temperatures power consumption set new records both in Argentina and Uruguay. According to Argentinas Planning ministry, electricity demand reached 20.669 MW at 20:15 hours when most Argentine families are home back from work. Although residential demand was satisfied, hundreds of industries suffered an anticipated blackout.

In Uruguay the power record consumption was reached on Wednesday at 20:45. The lowest temperatures were registered in the north and west of the country: minus 7 Celsius.

In related news, reports from landlocked Bolivia indicate that to the east of the country in tropical areas temperatures plummeted to zero causing millions of dead fish in rivers that normally flow in an environment of 20 Celsius.

Santa Cruz governor Ruben Costas said the province was suffering a major environmental catastrophe and warned the population not to make use of water from rivers (because of the dead fauna and flora) promising to send drinking water in municipal trucks.

The last time something of this magnitude happened was 47 years ago, said governor Costas.
I know the West side of the bigh high is forecast to break down as well but, i'm not too sure its gonna break down completely as first appeared as models have backed off some now.
Quoting Goldenblack:
Still look to be coming from a cutoff low due to our gulf/east coast trough?



Yes.
thanks!

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Yes.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
00z ECMWF latching on to a system in the Gulf by 120 hours.



We was talking about that yesterday evening....how the tailend of the cold front could spin up something......but, it would be a slow process as it would probably be a cold core first.
2067. aquak9
Quoting TampaSpin:


I don't think a loop will occur....but, i am sure less than 50% in my mind that its going to go harmlessly out to sea as models first thought. Not really sure as it move West much further that another gap will open...as it is now currently due South of the hole shot.....I believe 93L is coming much further West now.





think it'll make it as far as 55W a'fore it crosses 20?

yeah, ok, that's probably kinda stretching it there...
Quoting TampaSpin:


We was talking about that yesterday evening....how the tailend of the cold front could spin up something......but, it would be a slow process as it would probably be a cold core first.


Ehh, I don't think so. If it is cold core it wouldn't take long to transition to warm cored. These waters are warmer than they where when Claudette span up.
Claudette was a great example of how quickly that can happen if the conditions are right, and they would be even better in this case.

Quoting CybrTeddy:


Ehh, I don't think so. If it is cold core it wouldn't take long to transition to warm cored. These waters are warmer than they where when Claudette span up.
I'm practing.

Quoting aquak9:


think it'll make it as far as 55W a'fore it crosses 20?

yeah, ok, that's probably kinda stretching it there...



If you believe in some models yes...here is the NGP model



I did say last night pre-94L was soon going to loose it pre- the time is not now but soon
The blog is relatively slow this morning.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Ehh, I don't think so. If it is cold core it wouldn't take long to transition to warm cored. These waters are warmer than they where when Claudette span up.


I always takes 2-3 days when connected to a cold front.....maybe even longer. IMO
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

I'll say "wow" when it actually turns into something significant...and based on this season so far, the chances of that are quite low IMO.
Yes agree, not an expert but I think the season was hype because "La niña", and SST. But dry air and TUTT are everywhere, waves really struggle to survive.So far 2 little extremely weak storms an a cat 2 hurricane south of Rio Grande.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
I did say last night pre-94L was soon going to loose it pre- the time is not now but soon


Ya....94L is out there.....just SE of 93L...its looking very strong but, should move West then NW and probably hit the gap between the 2 highs.

2077. hydrus
Quoting aquak9:


BWWAHAHAHAA!!! I LOVES THAT COMMERCIAL!!
Good Morning Aquak Some cool pics and a song.Link
2078. bird72
Quoting bird72:
13lat 30long?????

Invest???? TD????????

NHC, is very slow this year.......
Quoting

atlantic
Oil report: the floatilla just came thru Choctaw Bay, no oil sited. BUY GULF COAST SEAFOOD, it's safe and as good as ever. It's hot, muggy, flat water...
Morning Pat - nice piece on Portlight trailer
Quoting IKE:


Thanks:) That is subject to change.


Always - kind of like ship's schedule - written in sand, LOL.
2083. Patrap
One never,ever uses "Pre" in tropical forecasting. Never,Ever..

"Pre" isnt viable

2084. Patrap
Morn' zoomiami
2085. hydrus
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Oil report: the floatilla just came thru Choctaw Bay, no oil sited. BUY GULF COAST SEAFOOD, it's safe and as good as ever. It's hot, muggy, flat water...
We are on our way. Gulf Pinks, here I come.
Model plots still take 92L over the southern Bay of Campeche. SHIPS forecasts very favorable conditions there for development, and strengthens it to 50kts, LGEM brings it to 45kt. Both are probably unreasonable without a developed system.
Wow the CMC also turns 93L very far West and very far South as well....HUM....my gut is starting to get that feeling!
can someone post a link to atcf model site?

no comment yet!
2091. Patrap
Google ATCF tropical Tracking.

Its vary EASY
2092. bird72
I'm new here, I can't embed photos, don't know what happen. Never mind, 30lat 13long looks interesting. I see a post last night about this one looking better than 93l, so i agree with him, and satellite also. NHC?
2093. JavPR


something east of the island at 144h...
Gotta run....I believe 93L is becoming a real Sleeper and will now be turning West. Something to watch in my opinion. Models are starting to spread very quickly on agreeing with any track. That is never a good sign as they were in good agreement accept the lonely NGP which had it futher south and moving wEst.....it just may have been correct or as close as any of them. Have a good day!
Quoting hydrus:
We are on our way. Gulf Pinks, here I come.
Come on down...how many pounds do you want? We got crabs too (note to Louisiana people, yes, your crabs are bigger)
mornin' everyone.. miz zoo !

nice video Pat, you guys rock!
Quoting TampaSpin:
Wow the CMC also turns 93L very far West and very far South as well....HUM....my gut is starting to get that feeling!

Like a feeling something is brewing? :)
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Oil report: the floatilla just came thru Choctaw Bay, no oil sited. BUY GULF COAST SEAFOOD, it's safe and as good as ever. It's hot, muggy, flat water...


You should rephrase that to say "No surface oil sighted". The several million gallons of dispersants BP pumped into the deep waters did their job very well, that job being to keep the oil from coming to the top where it could be counted; now those millions of gallons of dispersants--along with tens of millions of gallons of uncollected, unevaporated oil--are dispersing through the Gulf unseen. And so far as I know, all edible Gulf seafood lives and breathes not at the surface, but down among the dispersant-and oil-tainted waters.

Nah, much as I love Gulf shrimp, fish, and oysters, it'll be a long time before I dive into a plate of 'em. Pity...
Although 93L's convection isn't very intense, it appears to have become better organized.
93L is becoming better organized. could become depression today.
The tropical wave SE of 93L is interesting as well. Models don't really develop anything out of it from what I can tell, but still worth watching.
Cybertedday -- I want to know where you will be spending hurricane season, as that seems to be the place not to be.

Morning to all that I missed.

I was looking at nogaps on 93l yesterday -- wondering why it was completely different than the others. Perhaps it caught something that is catching on.
I'm on my iPhone so I can't see read the models very well. Are there 2 that have 93 taking a dive south then west or is it just one? Which one(s)? Thanks!

ate some baked red fish the other day I caught good stuff their.
Quoting hurricane556:
93L is becoming better organized. could become depression today.


I agree, if it continues to organize and perhaps if convection increases a bit more.
Quoting Neapolitan:


You should rephrase that to say "No surface oil sighted". The several million gallons of dispersants BP pumped into the deep waters did their job very well, that job being to keep the oil from coming to the top where it could be counted; now those millions of gallons of dispersants--along with tens of millions of gallons of uncollectred, unevaporated oil--are dispersing through the Gulf unseen. And so far as I know, all edible Gulf seafood lives and breathes not at the surface, but down among the dispersant-and oil-tainted waters.

Nah, much as I love Gulf shrimp, fish, and oysters, it'll be a long time before I dive into a plate of 'em. Pity...
Didn't say no oil in the gulf, said no oil sighted in Choctaw Bay, surface or otherwise. It's a shame you feel that way. You're costing people their livelyhood. The limited product being delivered is tested beyond code and IS SAFE. You're not helping with speculation, and ONLY speculation, that something may be amiss...
Looking at trends - if you look at the archives for the busier years, there are more than a few storms that head into the northern atlantic, along with the other storms that head where people live.

I think that these storms show a more activity in the season generally.

The slower years tend not to have CV storms that have curved into the north Atlantic.
AL, 04, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 292N, 665W, 35, 1008, TS
AL, 92, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 173N, 883W, 25, 1009, DB
AL, 93, 2010080712, , BEST, 0, 188N, 388W, 25, 1011, DB
93L looking better and better. Depression status later, I'm a-thinkin'...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES13452010219L2xvz2.jpg
2112. hydrus
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Come on down...how many pounds do you want? We got crabs too (note to Louisiana people, yes, your crabs are bigger)
Tell ya what. We will take ten pounds of the Pinks( 5 to eat when we get there, and 5 for the freeze) and some pan seared snapper w/o-rings and cole slaw. Ice cold beer.
TAFB at 12:15 UTC gave 93L a T1.0, so still some work to do. Link
Redfish is the BEST! Grill it on the pit in foil with veggies or cook it up in a courtbouillion. Yuuuumy!
2116. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:
93L looking better and better. Depression status later, I'm a-thinkin'...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES13452010219L2xvz2.jpg
Not a lot in the way of convection with 93. Nice looking swirl to it.
Quoting truecajun:
I'm on my iPhone so I can't see read the models very well. Are there 2 that have 93 taking a dive south then west or is it just one? Which one(s)? Thanks!


Just 2

Quoting hydrus:
Tell ya what. We will take ten pounds of the Pinks( 5 to eat when we get there, and 5 for the freeze) and some pan seared snapper w/o-rings and cole slaw. Ice cold beer.
Done!! You're only problem is picking the place that can supply all of the above. I'd tell 'ya who we supply, but that would just be wrong...or maybe not (Gulf Coast Seafood)...
Thank you hydrus.
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Didn't say no oil in the gulf, said no oil sighted in Choctaw Bay, surface or otherwise. It's a shame you feel that way. You're costing people their livelyhood. The limited product being delivered is tested beyond code and IS SAFE. You're not helping with speculation, and ONLY speculation, that something may be amiss...


I'm not costing people their livelihood; BP did that all on their own. But that's beside the point here; the point is that A) tens of millions of gallons of oil and highly toxic dispersant were pumped into the Gulf in a single location and over a relatively short time, and B) not all of that oil was collected or evaporated or burnt, meaning that there's still a lot of it hanging around out there. My own personal opinion--that is, the opinion that dictates what I eat or don't eat--is that I'm not going to ingest any Gulf seafood until I know that every last drop of that oil and dispersant is gone.

BTW, the testing the FDA did is based in large part on a human "sniff" test. Before I put my money or my health at risk, I'd like something a little more thorough than an annlouncement of "Well, it doesn't smell all that bad." Call me overcautious if you want, but I call my aversion to possibly-carcinogenic chemicals plain smart.
2121. hydrus
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Done!! You're only problem for you is picking the place that can supply all of the above. I'd tell 'ya who we supply, but that would just be wrong...or maybe not (Gulf Coast Seafood)...
I am fricken starving...We have purchased fresh seafood from Gulf Coast before. But there has to be more than one purveyor with the Gulf Coast moniker. Colin is looking anemic....lol
Quoting TampaSpin:



If you believe in some models yes...here is the NGP model



I would tend to totally throw out the NOGAPS and UKMET until a/the system is actually formed (at least TD if not TS).
I meant to say thanku hardcoreweather
2124. bird72
Quoting JavPR:


something east of the island at 144h...


see your inbox
Quoting TampaSpin:


Ya....94L is out there.....just SE of 93L...its looking very strong but, should move West then NW and probably hit the gap between the 2 highs.

might feel some movement to the N/NW but if it keeps low enough it may squeak just under the split between the two.
Neopolitan, Im a little afraid as well. I don't trust the FDA.

Also, It's a shame BP used the dispersants. What they could have cleaned up is now swept under the rug and can't be. It's a shame.
2129. SLU
The wave behind 93L should be called an invest. While it was very "blobbish" last night, it has acquired some excellect cyclonic signature this morning indicative of a system trying to strengthen.

93L is moving through an area of relatively stable air and lower SSTs which explains why it is not generating very vigorous convection. However, as it passes 45w, conditions should continue to improve.

92L is very weak and I believe the NHC has been rather generous to it by maintaining a 10 - 20% chance of development over the last couple of days.

Finally Colin's struggles are indicative of an Atlantic which is not 100% favourable for development as yet. Yet still we are getting several systems trying to form all at once. We do not normally see an explosion of activity until about August 15th to 20th so this kind of early August activity is not really a good sign. We are still about 10 - 15 days away from the climatological detonation of the season.



Quoting Neapolitan:


I'm not costing people their livelihood; BP did that all on their own. But that's beside the point here; the point is that A) tens of millions of gallons of oil and highly toxic dispersant were pumped into the Gulf in a single location and over a relatively short time, and B) not all of that oil was collected or evaporated or burnt, meaning that there's still a lot of it hanging around out there. My own personal opinion--that is, the opinion that dictates what I eat or don't eat--is that I'm not going to ingest any Gulf seafood until I know that every last drop of that oil and dispersant is gone.

BTW, the testing the FDA did is based in large part on a human "sniff" test. Before I put my money or my health at risk, I'd like something a little more thorough than an annlouncement of "Well, it doesn't smell all that bad." Call me overcautious if you want, but I call my aversion to possibly-carcinogenic chemicals plain smart.
Ahhh, OK, it is your choice. When the voice in the speaker asks, tell him/her that yes, you do, indeed, want fries with that. In the meantime, Hydrus and I will be enjoying a little bit of heaven. Catsup?
Quoting truecajun:
I meant to say thanku hardcoreweather


No problem :) How do you like your Iphone and do you have radarscope for it yet ? Have a great day
the wave southeast of 93L has exhibited an increase in vorticity and lower level convergence has strengthen as well. this could become 94L in the next day.
Quoting RipplinH2O:
Ahhh, OK, it is your choice. When the voice in the speaker asks, tell him/her that yes, you do, indeed, want fries with that. In the meantime, Hydrus and I will be enjoying a little bit of heaven. Catsup?


Catsup? With your shrimp? :-) Seriously, though, I tend to agree with what a Louisianan oysterman/crab & shrimp fisherman said on the news a few days ago: "If I put fish in a barrel of water and poured oil and Dove detergent over that, and mixed it up, would you eat that fish?"

You do know there are other safer sources of seafood right now than the oily Gulf, right?
2134. mckyj57
Sigh -- this is getting tiresome. You post a promo for James Hansen's book instead of mentioning the unusual cold in the Southern hemisphere that kills scores of people. Doesn't fit with the narrative, I guess.

I think I will take my weather business elsewhere.
2135. ackee
Quoting hurricane556:
the wave southeast of 93L has exhibited an increase in vorticity and lower level convergence has strengthen as well. this could become 94L in the next day.
agree much further south too may not be a fish system if it develops
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


No problem :) How do you like your Iphone and do you have radarscope for it yet ? Have a great day


I love it. It took some getting used to since I upgraded from a 1998 Nokia candybar. But now that I've got the hang of it, I couldn't imagine being without. It's like a little traveling computer.

What's radarscope? An app?
here's an articles that was published in Thursday's Palm Beach Post (as hyped or useless as it may be):

A geographic area that includes Palm Beach County and the Treasure Coast is second only to Miami on a list of major Florida metropolitan areas most vulnerable to strong hurricane winds, according to a Florida State University study.

The study, set to be published in the November issue of the American Meteorological Society's Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology, ranks a 100-kilometer area centered on Port St. Lucie near the top of a list of 12 areas analyzed under the university's Hurricane Risk Calculator. That area includes almost all populated areas in Palm Beach County, plus the entirety of Martin and St. Lucie counties.

Areas centered on Key West, Cape Coral and Sarasota rounded out the top five on the list of 12 regions, while Tampa, Jacksonville and Tallahassee ranked as the least vulnerable areas of the places studied.

University officials announced the invention of the tool this week. Port St. Lucie leaders say they haven't seen the study, but its findings aren't going to change the hurricane plan they already have in place.

"From a city standpoint, we're not very concerned about it. Rather than feeling like we're the most vulnerable, we feel that we're the most prepared," Port St. Lucie spokeswoman Rita Hart said.

Hart said city officials already stay prepared for possible hurricanes by testing generators year-round, holding a hurricane expo each year and consistently providing residents with tools such as a laminated hurricane preparedness guide available at all city buildings.

In addition, Hart said, department heads throughout the city meet with other community organizations monthly to discuss emergency plans. All city buildings built since Frances and Jeanne hit the Treasure Coast in 2004 have been built to withstand strong hurricane winds, Hart said.

Sharon Rayner, director of emergency services for the North Treasure Coast chapter of the American Red Cross, says her agency's response to hurricane season has always been to adjust to the intensity of each storm.

"No matter where you are on a list, whether you're first or second or last, when a hurricane hits you need to be prepared," Rayner said. "So we're just always prepared."

Geography doctoral student Jill Malmstadt, who created the calculator with help from Professor James B. Elsner and research consultant Thomas H. Jagger, said she encourages the preparedness mindset for all Floridians.

The statistical model, Malmstadt says, is based on "extreme value theory," which unlike most statistical theories evaluates the likelihood of things that don't happen often.

So in this case, Malmstadt said, the calculator only tested vulnerabilities to major hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger. Malmstadt, who plans to expand the calculator's use to other states, said she picked the 12 areas in Florida for her study because they were the areas that had the highest populations.

"I don't want someone to say, well, we're number 6 or we're not on the list so we're okay," she said. "As long as you live in Florida, you should be prepared."
2138. SLU
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.0N 66.4W
ABOUT 245 MI...400 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES
Quoting Neapolitan:


Catsup? With your shrimp? :-) Seriously, though, I tend to agree with what a Louisianan oysterman/crab & shrimp fisherman said on the news a few days ago: "If I put fish in a barrel of water and poured oil and Dove detergent over that, and mixed it up, would you eat that fish?"

You do know there are other safer sources of seafood right now than the oily Gulf, right?
Safer? No, other? Yes. Thank you! BP boss Tony said the same thing a while back. Glad to see you support his statement about other sources of seafood besides our Gulf. Again, enjoy whatever you eat. I will continue to eat the best. I really don't like Thai shrimp, even when I was there...
2140. hydrus
Quoting Neapolitan:


Catsup? With your shrimp? :-) Seriously, though, I tend to agree with what a Louisianan oysterman/crab & shrimp fisherman said on the news a few days ago: "If I put fish in a barrel of water and poured oil and Dove detergent over that, and mixed it up, would you eat that fish?"

You do know there are other safer sources of seafood right now than the oily Gulf, right?
A little 30 weight wont kill me...jk...
Quoting truecajun:


I love it. It took some getting used to since I upgraded from a 1998 Nokia candybar. But now that I've got the hang of it, I couldn't imagine being without. It's like a little traveling computer.

What's radarscope? An app?


Radarscope is the best radar program for your phone. There are many weather apps but that's the first one that I paid for. If you have any questions feel free to shoot me a WU email.
2143. Thaale
Hi SLU, or anyone who knows: I've been wondering about how to read that TS frequency graph that SLU posted. It is often posted here and elsewhere, and I see it's a NOAA product, but I can't find their description of it.

Do you know what exactly is being represented, say on Sept 10? Are they saying that in a 100 year period, a total of 50 hurricanes are expected to form on September 10 specifically? Or that in 100 years, the expected number of hurricanes active on September 10 is 50?

It makes a big difference, as the first way a storm would only be counted once (or maybe in Colin's case twice, once for each day on which he was upgraded to TS), whereas the second way, a storm would contribute to multiple points.

I think the second interpretation is more likely, but if anyone knows the answer or could point me toward a NOAA explanation, I'd appreciate it. TIA

2144. JavPR
Quoting bird72:


see your inbox

done...
2145. spathy
Quoting Neapolitan:


Catsup? With your shrimp? :-) Seriously, though, I tend to agree with what a Louisianan oysterman/crab & shrimp fisherman said on the news a few days ago: "If I put fish in a barrel of water and poured oil and Dove detergent over that, and mixed it up, would you eat that fish?"

You do know there are other safer sources of seafood right now than the oily Gulf, right?


The Gulf is a big place.
And there is no oil down here near Naples and Fort Myers Fl.
There is plenty of non tainted seafood coming out of the Gulf.
Eat up:0)
Quoting mckyj57:
Sigh -- this is getting tiresome. You post a promo for James Hansen's book instead of mentioning the unusual cold in the Southern hemisphere that kills scores of people. Doesn't fit with the narrative, I guess.

I think I will take my weather business elsewhere.


Dude, you are so right it's scary. Also, I was reading in Southern Patagonian Icefisherman Weekly that 1 out of every ice fisherman said the ice seemed colder this year than last. Where is that info?
2147. Relix
Future 94L is the one to watch for the Caribbean guys!
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


Radarscope is the best radar program for your phone. There are many weather apps but that's the first one that I paid for. If you have any questions feel free to shoot me a WU email.


thanks. I will check it out. My dad was talking about a few weather app the other day, but I can't recall which.
Quoting hydrus:
A little 30 weight wont kill me...jk...


Hey probably safe as any other meat. Hasn't been there long enough to bio-accumulate. For once the big fish are the best. Lol
Quoting spathy:


The Gulf is a big place.
And there is no oil down here near Naples and Fort Myers Fl.
There is plenty of non tainted seafood coming out of the Gulf.
Eat up:0)
Ah Ooo Ah, Ah Ooo ah, Ah Ooo Ah...(my best John Boy)...on that note, gotta go prep for a boil this afternoon. Yep, we're eating this mornings' catch, dispersants and all (note to those without a joke filter: there are no dispersants here)...have a great day all
Quoting Thaale:
Hi SLU, or anyone who knows: I've been wondering about how to read that TS frequency graph that SLU posted. It is often posted here and elsewhere, and I see it's a NOAA product, but I can't find their description of it.

Do you know what exactly is being represented, say on Sept 10? Are they saying that in a 100 year period, a total of 50 hurricanes are expected to form on September 10 specifically? Or that in 100 years, the expected number of hurricanes active on September 10 is 50?

It makes a big difference, as the first way a storm would only be counted once (or maybe in Colin's case twice, once for each day on which he was upgraded to TS), whereas the second way, a storm would contribute to multiple points.

I think the second interpretation is more likely, but if anyone knows the answer or could point me toward a NOAA explanation, I'd appreciate it. TIA



From what I know, that graph shows the number of storms to be expected per 100 years on any given day. That is, not how many are born, but how many are active on that day on average. (If it were the number of storms born, there'd have to be one that formed on September 10th virtually every year, and that just doesn't happen.)
Quoting greentortuloni:


Dude, you are so right it's scary. Also, I was reading in Southern Patagonian Icefisherman Weekly that 1 out of every ice fisherman said the ice seemed colder this year than last. Where is that info?


+1. It's concerning. The covering if the ears they can do like children "I'm not listening. I'm not listening"
wow look at that tropical wave at 30 WEST ITS MOVING WEST TO..MAYBE NEXT INVEST COMING SOON WITH A SPIN TO.
Quoting truecajun:


+1. It's concerning. The covering if the ears they can do like children "I'm not listening. I'm not listening"


LOL
Quoting greentortuloni:


Dude, you are so right it's scary. Also, I was reading in Southern Patagonian Icefisherman Weekly that 1 out of every ice fisherman said the ice seemed colder this year than last. Where is that info?


A) The world's getting quickly warmer:



B) A cold snap isn't proof of the absence of GW anymore than a warm spell is proof of the opposite (though if we were to compare and contrast, we'd have to note that the current South American phenomenon hasn't happened for 47 years, while the Russian/European heat wave hasn't happened forever).
2159. SLU
Quoting Neapolitan:


From what I know, that graph shows the number of storms to be expected per 100 years on any given day. That is, not how many are born, but how many are active on that day on average. (If it were the number of storms born, there'd have to be one that formed on September 10th virtually every year, and that just doesn't happen.)


I think that would be the best explanation.
Mother Nature's B-Day presents to me:
-An anemic Colin
-A fizzled 92L
-A well organized 93L
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Mother Nature's B-Day presents to me:
-An anemic Colin
-A fizzled 92L
-A well organized 93L


For your sake, you'd best hope she keeps being stingy... :-)
2162. SLU
Black and white.

So finally the NHC recognises the Cape Verdes system as a wave.

the area of disturbed weather in the far eastern atlantic south of the cape verdes ,is getting better organised latest ASCAT is showind an almost closed low near 12N 28W. the system is moving west and i expect it to designated as 94L within the next 12 to 24 hrs
Quoting stoormfury:
the area of disturbed weather in the far eastern atlantic south of the cape verdes ,is getting better organised latest ASCAT is showind an almost closed low near 12N 28W. the system is moving west and i expect it to designated as 94L within the next 12 to 24 hrs


Agreed...if not even sooner.
2167. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
the area of disturbed weather in the far eastern atlantic south of the cape verdes ,is getting better organised latest ASCAT is showind an almost closed low near 12N 28W. the system is moving west and i expect it to designated as 94L within the next 12 to 24 hrs


I was hoping you'd say in the next 12 to 24 minutes.
2168. Thaale
Quoting Neapolitan:


From what I know, that graph shows the number of storms to be expected per 100 years on any given day. That is, not how many are born, but how many are active on that day on average. (If it were the number of storms born, there'd have to be one that formed on September 10th virtually every year, and that just doesn't happen.)


Quoting SLU:


I think that would be the best explanation.


Thank you both.


model inner nest shows it at 30n55w in 126hrs
wanted to be as conservative as the NHC lol
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


model inner nest shows it at 30n55w in 126hrs


And as a hurricane no less...
2172. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
wanted to be as conservative as the NHC lol


They've been very up and down this season. 92L gets 10% and the Eastern Atlantic wave hasn't been mentioned as yet when in truth it has a better chance to develop. lol
some how I doubt that 93L or pre-94L will recurve in fact I expect 93L to start moving SW soon the move W being just E of the Leeward Islands and for pre-94L to be just E of the southern end of the Leeward Islands
2174. JavPR
future 94L is looking nice...
What's Collin doing Lol?

He Went backward...
The BIG Picture.

Note all that Gulf and Caribbean water just simmering under nearly cloudless skies; the 26.C isotherm gets deeper and TCHP rises. Wee...

http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/GOES14452010219Q9c7AK.jpg
so when should we here in Florida be expecting a decent storm? i know Colin and 93L are outta the question. but maybe the soon to be 94L will head our way. not wishing for a sever hurricane but a nice big storm would tickle my fancy lol.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
some how I doubt that 93L or pre-94L will recurve in fact I expect 93L to start moving SW soon the move W being just E of the Leeward Islands and for pre-94L to be just E of the southern end of the Leeward Islands
maybe because thats the way you want it to go but sorry these things will go the way they want
the cape verde disturbance could be the classic cape verde hurricane. conditions ahead of the system is conducive for development. the ridge is expected to streghen and move west which will keep this disturbance on atrack that could bring it close to the lesser antilles. although at the moment there is no model support for the system. i exect that to change as soon as the designation to 94l comes about.
THE INVEST TO WATCH ITS INVEST 94L AT 30 WEST ITS WILL BE INVEST 94l soon by sunday morning..
erm...eye?

04L/TS/C stationary
2183. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
the cape verde disturbance could be the classic cape verde hurricane. conditions ahead of the system is conducive for development. the ridge is expected to streghen and move west which will keep this disturbance on atrack that could bring it close to the lesser antilles. although at the moment there is no model support for the system. i exect that to change as soon as the designation to 94l comes about.


The GFS keeps it was a disorganised wave and moves it westwards very quickly about 20mph to around 12n 45w by Tuesday. Let's see how things pan out after that.
2184. Walshy
Coastal Hazard Statement

Statement as of 10:49 AM EDT on August 07, 2010

... High rip current risk in effect until 8 PM EDT this evening...

Long period swells coming from Tropical Storm Colin... combined
with astronomical tides from a new moon will produce a high risk
of rip currents for the North Carolina beaches from Surf City to
Cape Fear.
The most dangerous time for rip currents will be in a
two hour window either side of low tide... which will occur around
1130 am this morning. Anyone venturing to the beach should stay
out of the water.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

Rip currents are powerful channels of water flowing away from
shore... which occur most often at low spots or breaks in The
Sandbar and in the vicinity of structures such as groins...
jetties and piers. Heed the advice of lifeguards and the beach
patrol. Pay attention to flags and posted signs. Rip currents
can become life threatening
to anyone who enters the surf.



Please visit the following website to share your thoughts on the
new rip current hazard:

Http://www.Weather.Gov/survey/NWS-survey.Php?Code=rcvtecchm
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
THE INVEST TO WATCH ITS INVEST 94L AT 30 WEST ITS WILL BE INVEST 94l soon by sunday morning..
there is no 94l what are you talking about cause whatever it is its nothing right now but a area of interest nothing more


NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
Tropical Storm 04L (COLIN) Warning
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .
As of SAT 07 Aug 2010 15:00:02Z
2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
93L.INVEST
92L.INVEST
04L.COLIN
East Pacific
07E.ESTELLE
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
96W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
NONE
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
SLU ,i want you to go into the archives and look at hurricane ALLEN and you will see the similiarities with this cape verde system and hurricane allen. this cannot be coincidence
2189. 7544
nice graghics all star keep up the good work

look like we will see 94l latter today and thats the one to watch dont think that one will be a fish

93l is kinda iffy for now for the track imo looks like new models want to take it further west
Quoting stoormfury:
SLU ,i want you to go into the archives and look at hurricane ALLEN and you will see the similiarities with this cape verde system and hurricane allen. this cannot be coincidence


Yes it could be a coincidence lol
Future 94L southwest of the Cape Verde Islands and SE of 93L is in an environment conducive for tropical cyclone development. Currently shear is a little high if one was to trust the CIMSS products, but by looking the current presentation of this wave near 30W/13N suggests that conditions are less unfavorable then analyzed. SSTs are roughly 27-28C which favors a tropical storm strength system until 50W where SSTs gradually warm to 29C and then 30C as you enter the Caribbean Sea. I expect Danielle or Earl to develop from this wave, as organization appears to be quick, no major intensification expected until 50W longitude. This system appears to be heading west roughly at 10-15mph and expected to stay this course the next three days. Circulations from 500-850mb are pretty much vertically aligned with one another with the 700mb circulation currently most potent. This could become our first potential threatening hurricane, Major hurricane status given environment ahead.
93L is a small storm...convection has increased slightly throughout the morning. I'd give this a high chance of becoming a tropical depression within the next day or so.
2193. Drakoen
Wave sw of the CV islands is showing strong signs of organization. Satellite imagery reveals obvious rotation which is supported by MIMIC-TPW and cimss 850mb vorticity. A cyclonically curved band can be seen located on the equatorward end of the system wrapping into the system's circulation. Upper level winds are marginally conducive for development.
extreme236 I agree high chance seems reasonable at this time for 93L. The wave near 30W now has a surface low, and could be closed, convection after waning some at DMIN, has become more concetrated near this low and could become an invest shortly and be given at least a 30% chance of development at the 2pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook. Colin is trying to reorganize once again, with convection seeming to try to wrap around at least the eastern side of the circulation.
Quoting Drakoen:
Wave sw of the CV islands is showing strong signs of organization. Satellite imagery reveals obvious rotation which is supported by MIMIC-TPW and cimss 850mb vorticity. A cyclonically curved band can be seen located on the equatorward end of the system wrapping into the system's circulation. Upper level winds are marginally conducive for development.


I bet the NHC doesn't even mention it in the 2pm TWO
Extreme weather kills wildlife:

Link
Quoting Hurricanes101:


I bet the NHC doesn't even mention it in the 2pm TWO


At least the NHC tagged it as a tropical wave a couple hours ago. Makes me think that they're at least keeping some sort of eye on it.
Colin is about to get Train Wrecked with that Trough coming off the US Coast.

2199. SLU
Quoting stoormfury:
SLU ,i want you to go into the archives and look at hurricane ALLEN and you will see the similiarities with this cape verde system and hurricane allen. this cannot be coincidence


Pre-Dean also had a very similar structure.
Quoting Drakoen:
Wave sw of the CV islands is showing strong signs of organization. Satellite imagery reveals obvious rotation which is supported by MIMIC-TPW and cimss 850mb vorticity. A cyclonically curved band can be seen located on the equatorward end of the system wrapping into the system's circulation. Upper level winds are marginally conducive for development.


Drak, perhaps an equatorward outflow channel developing, northern side is not so fortunate given the presence of dry air. However with time this will develop as well, perhaps a system like this will look similar to Katrina of 2005 after she moved through Florida, in structre given that she had dry air problems early on in her lifespan and looked like a commahead.
Where is Dr.Master's update?
Quoting patrikdude2:
Where is Dr.Master's update?

Its coming. I think he is getting all his information together with Colin, 93L and soon -to-be 94L..... Lots of Info to get....

Taco :o)
Good afternoon

What an odd start to the season. Apart from Alex, everything else that has come along has struggled to organize and those that have managed to do so have faltered very quickly.

92L pretty much evaporated again last night in an area of the Caribbean that historically is favourable for development. 93L is not much to write home about and Colin is hanging on by a thread, again.

The feature that will probably be designated 94L later today ( assuming it too doesn't collapse ) seems to be the next potential long range threat. Convection has diminished overnight as the heat of the day out in the far East Atl set in so we will have to wait and see how it fares over the course of the next 12 hours or so.



12z GFS again moves a vigorous tropical wave off the African coast in 72 hours, but drops it by 120 hours.
NEW BLOG
Quoting extreme236:
12z GFS again moves a vigorous tropical wave off the African coast in 72 hours, but drops it by 120 hours.


this upgrade the GFS has been terrible in my opinion
local met here in swfl calling for a possible tropical low to form in the eastern gom or over fl and track westerly either late weekend early next week!!!!
Any more info on the possibility of a backyard storm forming in the GOM from the trough hanging around the area?
Cancer causing antibiotics found in farm-raised chinese seafood:

Link