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Colin ready to re-form; TSR keeps their Atlantic hurricane forecast numbers high

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:54 PM GMT on August 05, 2010

The remains of Tropical Storm Colin continue to generate heavy thunderstorm activity over the waters a few hundred miles northeast of Puerto Rico. Colin's remains are in a rather unfavorable environment for re-development, since the storm is passing beneath an upper-level low pressure system with dry air and high wind shear. Despite the high wind shear of 20 - 25 knots, Colin's remains have grown more organized during the past day, and a low-level circulation has formed. A pass of the Windsat satellite last night revealed that ex-Colin is already generating tropical storm force winds of 40 mph in isolated regions. Recent satellite imagery shows that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in intensity and areal coverage this morning, and a low level circulation that may or may not persist has formed near 23.5N 65.5W (Figure 1.)

Forecast for Colin
The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that wind shear will drop from 15 - 25 knots today to a moderate 10 - 20 knots on Friday. This relaxation of shear prompts most of the major models to predict re-development of Colin sometime in the next three days. NHC is giving Colin's remain a 50% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Saturday morning. A major trough of low pressure will move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the north and cause it to slow down. All of the major forecast models are predicting that the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea early next week. Colin's remains may pass close to Bermuda on Saturday, with the latest 06Z (2am EDT) run of the GFDL model predicting that Bermuda will experience tropical storm force winds on Saturday as Colin passes to the west of the island. The Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to investigate Colin's remains at 2 pm EDT this afternoon. It currently appears that Colin will only be a threat to Bermuda and Newfoundland.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Colin's remains show a low-level circulation, exposed to view, has formed at the edge of a region of heavy thunderstorms.

92L
A tropical wave (Invest 92) a few hundred miles south of Jamaica is moving west at 15 - 20 mph. This wave is over warm water and is experiencing low wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, and could show some development over the next two days. However, the wave's rapid westward motion should bring it ashore over Nicaragua and Honduras on Friday and the Yucatan Peninsula on Saturday, and 92L probably does not have enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving a 10% chance of this disturbance developing into a tropical depression by Friday morning.

Elsewhere in the tropics
The GFS model is predicting that a tropical wave that moved off the coast of Africa yesterday will develop into a tropical depression early next week. None of the other models is showing any obvious tropical cyclone development over the coming week. The current phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) over the Atlantic favors upward motion and enhanced probabilities of tropical storm formation, so it would not be a surprise to see a new tropical depression form next week between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands.

TSR keeps their forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season high
The British private forecasting firm Tropical Storm Risk, Inc. (TSR) joins CSU in calling for a very busy Atlantic hurricane season. The latest TSR forecast issued August 4 calls for 17.8 named storms, 9.7 hurricanes, 4.5 intense hurricanes, and an Accumulated Cyclone Energy (ACE) 183% of average (assuming an ACE of 101 is average.) These storm numbers are a slight drop from their July 6 forecast of 19.1 named storms, 10.4 hurricanes, and 4.8 intense hurricanes, but this is still a very aggressive forecast. The 50-year average is 10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, and 2 intense hurricanes. TSR predicts a 96% chance that this season will have an above-average ACE index, and only 4% chance it will be near normal. TSR rates their skill level for August forecasts as 51% above chance at forecasting the number of named storms, 64% skill for hurricanes, and 47% skill for intense hurricanes.

TSR projects that 5.7 named storms will hit the U.S., with 2.6 of these being hurricanes. The averages from the 1950-2008 climatology are 3.2 named storms and 1.5 hurricanes. TSR's skill in making these August forecasts for U.S. landfalls is 19% - 23% above chance. They give an 89% chance that the U.S. landfalling ACE index will be above average. In the Lesser Antilles Islands of the Caribbean, TSR projects 1.8 named storms, 0.8 of these being hurricanes. Climatology is 1.1 named storms and 0.5 hurricanes.

TSR cites two main factors for keeping their numbers high: below-average trade winds and near-record warm sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic. TSR expects trade winds in the Main Development Region (MDR) for hurricanes over the Atlantic (the region between 10° - 20° N from Central America to Africa, including all of the Caribbean) to be 1.53 meters per second (about 3.4 mph) slower than average in this region, which would create more spin for developing storms, and allow the oceans to heat up, due to decreased mixing of cold water from the depths and reduced evaporational cooling.

Forecast numbers for the coming hurricane season
Here are the number of Atlantic named storms, hurricanes, and intense hurricanes predicted by the various forecast groups in their late May or early June forecasts:

23 named storms: PSU statistical model
20 named storms: UKMET GloSea dynamical model
18.5 named storms, 11 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes: NOAA hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.7 named storms, 9.5 hurricanes, 4.4 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique
17 named storms, 10 hurricanes: FSU COAPS dynamical model
10 named storms, 6 hurricanes, 2 intense hurricanes: climatology

And here are the new late July/early August forecast numbers so far:

15 named storms, 8 hurricanes: FSU COAPS dynamical model (July 15 forecast)
18 named storms, 10 hurricanes, 5 intense hurricanes: CSU statistical model (Phil Klotzbach/Bill Gray)
17.8 named storms, 9.7 hurricanes, 4.5 intense hurricanes: Tropical Storm Risk (TSR), hybrid statistical/dynamical model technique (Note: TSR had higher numbers of 19.1, 10.4, and 4.8 in their July 6 forecast)

This season has had three named storms so far (Alex, Bonnie, and Colin.) It will be difficult to have a season with 19 or more named storms, since the four seasons that had at least 19 named storms all had at least five named storms by this point (August 4.) These four seasons were 1887, 1933, 1995, and 2005.

Next update
I'll have an update on Friday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting StormW:


This is what I most likely expect this season.


My experienced with Georges in PRico....no power for about 2 months...2 gal bucket daily showers ahh
and looking for ice, water and milk for two small children.
Hey, I drank the Koo-laid too.. That this would be one of the most active season.. I wasnt sure it would be the Most ever but very elevated! There is a ton of time left before we even reach the pinnacle of the season.
But as hot as the atlantic is... I would not say the season is going to be a bust or even short of what the experts called for... I really believe that we will witness what the second half of the great 2005 season. (dont take me out of context here) I repeat second half (that we have not reached yet)... I believe that this season will be an extended season and we will see many storms form in later months possibly after the official season is over... That heat has to go somewhere?? If Im wrong, then watch out for next season! Because there is historical records that show (wish I could put my finger on the chart) years that drop sharply from el nino to la nina in a few months, la nina will continue for the following season..

So Im sitting here in Jonestown happily awaiting for another helping of the Summer Sugar..

Oh and by the way... Things are really hopping out there!!

Sorry for the repost but didnt want it to get lost on the last page....
2503. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
2494. IKE

Colin has a nice eye feature in that frame...lol

"naked eye"


Which reminds me of this kick-a** song by Naked Eyes....Link
2504. tkeith
2502. earthlydragonfly
So Im sitting here in Jonestown happily awaiting for another helping of the Summer Sugar..

just dont drink the water :)
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm calm. I just like spirited debate. :)


Admit it..It's the caffeine, lol.
2507. tkeith
Quoting IKE:


Which reminds me of this kick-a** song by Naked Eyes....Link
I love that song...but I thought it was by Hall and Oates...lol
2508. WxLogic
I won't be surprised if Colin meanders for a day or two until it develops some deeper convection after shear has decreased some to allow it to feel some atmosphere better and establish a set course once again.
Wow we have a invest 93 and already its projected to swing way out back to sea.

Straight from the ITCZ and blasting due N NW.


Quoting tkeith:
2502. earthlydragonfly
So Im sitting here in Jonestown happily awaiting for another helping of the Summer Sugar..

just dont drink the water :)



LOL Keith..... Morning
2511. tkeith
Quoting earthlydragonfly:



LOL Keith..... Morning
mornin D'Fly...work calls *sighs*
3-4 more in August, 4-5 in September, 3-4 in October and 1-2 in November sounds pretty reasonable for what's upcoming.
The sone by Hall and Oates was Lying Eyes right?
Deaths of Children in Hot Cars Hit Grim Record

Girl, 2, found dead in van outside Delray Beach day care center
Toddler may have been in hot vehicle for six hours, police say
By Jerome Burdi, Sofia Santana and Eric Newcomer
Sun Sentinel
7:54 a.m. EDT, August 6, 2010
DELRAY BEACH — Day care center workers arrived and parents dropped off their children Friday morning at Katie's Kids Learning Center, one day after a toddler's lifeless body was found inside one of the facility's transportation vans.

The 2-year-old girl was left inside the van for hours Thursday before anyone noticed.

Hyperthermia Deaths of
Children in Vehicles

by Jan Null, CCM
Adjunct Professor of Meteorology, SFSU
Updated August 5, 2010
To date there have been twenty-nine deaths in 2010 of children due to hyperthermia (heat stroke) from being in hot vehicles. Last year there were a total of at least 33 such fatalities in the United States due to hyperthermia after they were left in hot cars, trucks, vans and SUV's. Since 1998 there have been at least a total of 474 of these needless tragedies. This study shows that these incidents can occur on days with relatively mild (i.e., ~ 70 degrees F) temperatures and that vehicles can reach life-threatening temperatures very rapidly.

STATISTICS

Total number of U.S. hyperthermia deaths of children left in cars, 2010: 29
Total number of U.S. hyperthermia deaths of children left in cars, 2009: 33
Total number of U.S. hyperthermia deaths of children left in cars, 1998-2010: 474
Average number of U.S. child hyperthermia fatalities per year since 1998: 37
2516. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
I love that song...but I thought it was by Hall and Oates...lol


Here's one by them...written by Michael Oldfield...Dedicated to all men struggling with cravings...


2517. bjdsrq
All credible global models seem to call for the Bermuda high to break down just as the season starts to peak. Maybe the US escapes the bulk of CV storms. Poor fish though.
Quoting mikatnight:
Deaths of Children in Hot Cars Hit Grim Record

Girl, 2, found dead in van outside Delray Beach day care center
Toddler may have been in hot vehicle for six hours, police say
By Jerome Burdi, Sofia Santana and Eric Newcomer
Sun Sentinel
7:54 a.m. EDT, August 6, 2010
DELRAY BEACH — Day care center workers arrived and parents dropped off their children Friday morning at Katie's Kids Learning Center, one day after a toddler's lifeless body was found inside one of the facility's transportation vans.

The 2-year-old girl was left inside the van for hours Thursday before anyone noticed.

Hyperthermia Deaths of
Children in Vehicles

by Jan Null, CCM
Adjunct Professor of Meteorology, SFSU
Updated August 5, 2010
To date there have been twenty-nine deaths in 2010 of children due to hyperthermia (heat stroke) from being in hot vehicles. Last year there were a total of at least 33 such fatalities in the United States due to hyperthermia after they were left in hot cars, trucks, vans and SUV's. Since 1998 there have been at least a total of 474 of these needless tragedies. This study shows that these incidents can occur on days with relatively mild (i.e., ~ 70 degrees F) temperatures and that vehicles can reach life-threatening temperatures very rapidly.

STATISTICS

Total number of U.S. hyperthermia deaths of children left in cars, 2010: 29
Total number of U.S. hyperthermia deaths of children left in cars, 2009: 33
Total number of U.S. hyperthermia deaths of children left in cars, 1998-2010: 474
Average number of U.S. child hyperthermia fatalities per year since 1998: 37


This really breaks my heart. Its really really sad.

Did you watch the segment on TWC where there is a device on the market that attaches to a key chain to notify someone that there is a child left in the car seat?
Quoting IKE:


Here's one by them...written by Michael Oldfield...Dedicated to all men struggling with cravings...




Mike Oldfield's a great musician.
1. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE
LOCATED ABOUT 650 MILES WEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS HAVE BECOME
A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS
ARE GENERALLY FAVORABLE FOR ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.
THERE IS A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

Quoting mikatnight:
Deaths of Children in Hot Cars Hit Grim Record

Girl, 2, found dead in van outside Delray Beach day care center
Toddler may have been in hot vehicle for six hours, police say
By Jerome Burdi, Sofia Santana and Eric Newcomer
Sun Sentinel
7:54 a.m. EDT, August 6, 2010
DELRAY BEACH — Day care center workers arrived and parents dropped off their children Friday morning at Katie's Kids Learning Center, one day after a toddler's lifeless body was found inside one of the facility's transportation vans.

The 2-year-old girl was left inside the van for hours Thursday before anyone noticed.

Hyperthermia Deaths of
Children in Vehicles

by Jan Null, CCM
Adjunct Professor of Meteorology, SFSU
Updated August 5, 2010
To date there have been twenty-nine deaths in 2010 of children due to hyperthermia (heat stroke) from being in hot vehicles. Last year there were a total of at least 33 such fatalities in the United States due to hyperthermia after they were left in hot cars, trucks, vans and SUV's. Since 1998 there have been at least a total of 474 of these needless tragedies. This study shows that these incidents can occur on days with relatively mild (i.e., ~ 70 degrees F) temperatures and that vehicles can reach life-threatening temperatures very rapidly.

STATISTICS

Total number of U.S. hyperthermia deaths of children left in cars, 2010: 29
Total number of U.S. hyperthermia deaths of children left in cars, 2009: 33
Total number of U.S. hyperthermia deaths of children left in cars, 1998-2010: 474
Average number of U.S. child hyperthermia fatalities per year since 1998: 37


I live in Delray and I saw this in the Sun this morning.. needless to say, if my kids went there, no way would I be taking them back.. quite a shame people are that irresponsible with others kids
What's up with the Bermuda high setting up way way east. Will it build back west anytime soon?
Quoting bjdsrq:
All credible global models seem to call for the Bermuda high to break down just as the season starts to peak. Maybe the US escapes the bulk of CV storms. Poor fish though.


Any thoughts on this statement. As of now it seems credible
2525. IKE
Those ULL's may be Man-Eaters with Colin.....H & O's best song.





Post 2515...

I have three little ones and if my children went to a daycare that lost track of a child like that and didn't notice I would be demanding the place be shut down! I definitely would NOT be bringing my children there! What are these parents thinking?! (I am going to yell here, so cover your ears!) EVERYONE AT THAT DAYCARE SHOULD BE ARRESTED AND PUT IN JAIL! This is not just heartbraking, it is criminal!

2528. IKE
Quoting mikatnight:



Colin may be a dark horse....running a dark race course....


93L (Danielle) heading for the fishes. Looks like 2010 will be a fish year.
well mcluvincane I belive it is expected to build back vey soon
2532. breald
Quoting rossclick:


I live in Delray and I saw this in the Sun this morning.. needless to say, if my kids went there, no way would I be taking them back.. quite a shame people are that irresponsible with others kids


It is so sad to hear of things like this happening. Every year we have cases of this during the hottest parts of summer and I just don't understand why.


Legislation Regarding
Unattended Children in Vehicles
Updated May 2009
Jan Null, CCM
Private Eyes....Hall and Oates
Lying Eyes .....Eagles
Quoting IKE:
Those ULL's may be Man-Eaters with Colin.....H & O's best song.








Have disagree wtih ya there Ike. "Sara Smile" or "She's Gone".
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


This really breaks my heart. Its really really sad.

Did you watch the segment on TWC where there is a device on the market that attaches to a key chain to notify someone that there is a child left in the car seat?
It is sad that a person would leave a child in a car period. Also upsets me when pets are left in hot cars, i have seen this too many times and reported it every time.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
well mcluvincane I belive it is expected to build back vey soon


Thanks. Just wondering how it was going to set up cause I don't thing I've ever seen it that far east and weak.
Quoting Danricane:
Private Eyes....Hall and Oates
Lying Eyes .....Eagles


Eagles got too many to list!
Quoting StormW:


I addressed that about 4 times yesterday.


Sorry storm I didn't get a chance to log on yesterday. Very busy day yesterday in Haiti.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
It is sad that a person would leave a child in a car period. Also upsets me when pets are left in hot cars, i have seen this too many times and reported it every time.



It is horrifying. Happens to pets too.
Quoting StormW:


I addressed that about 4 times yesterday.


Pete and Repete right? LOL. I think some are a little bummed out maybe because we havent had that one major storm to make a US landfall? I really dont know for sure.

Sometimes I think that maybe when the general population looks at forecasted statistics, we should bear in mind that although they are based on science but that there is still a probability for some error. Also that just because there are x number of forecasted named storms that those named storms may or may not hit US land. That's not a bad thing. Sometimes we probably should just count our blessins when oil rigs finally get capped, bermuda highs breakdown, and storms recurve back to sea.

Just sayin.
Quoting Cotillion:
3-4 more in August, 4-5 in September, 3-4 in October and 1-2 in November sounds pretty reasonable for what's upcoming.


My story, and I'm stickin' to it: 6-7 more in August, 6-7 in September, 3-4 October, 0-1 November. That is, from a low of 18/11/5 to a high of 22/13 /7 , for a median of 20/12/6.
Quoting mcluvincane:


Sorry storm I didn't get a chance to log on yesterday. Very busy day yesterday in Haiti.


You don't have to explain. I was just curious is all.
Storm W, do you think eventually the setup of the AB will change and will allow the Cape Verdes storms to get into the Carib. or is the pattern setup for more fish storms? Thanks.
2548. IKE
Quoting DestinJeff:
Welcome to VH1's Behind the Music blog.


LOL.

Convection well displaced on Colin.....

Looks like fish storms for awhile.
Storm, I didn't mean for you to get bombarded with questions you answered yesterday and having to repeat yourself. Sorry
Morning Storm...heres the MJO chart I have.. I noticed the graph stops on Aug 3rd? Is there a problem with the site updating?Link
Quoting StormW:


My bad...thought you may have caught it. No problem, I plan on posting something on that issue again anyway. If you don't get the chance to view it, let me know (send me a WU email), and I'll have a copy for you. More than happy to send it.


Thanks
Quoting StormW:


Nothing to be sorry for! I had just posted it that many times, cause folks weren't catching on to the idea. I didn't mean for my response to seem so "gruff"...just trying to do short answers right now, as I'm getting ready to put together my synopsis...that's why the shortness.
So mean in the morning....LOL
2559. IKE
Quoting wayfaringstranger:


Pete and Repete right? LOL. I think some are a little bummed out maybe because we havent had that one major storm to make a US landfall? I really dont know for sure.

Sometimes I think that maybe when the general population looks at forecasted statistics, we should bear in mind that although they are based on science but that there is still a probability for some error. Also that just because there are x number of forecasted named storms that those named storms may or may not hit US land. That's not a bad thing. Sometimes we probably should just count our blessins when oil rigs finally get capped, bermuda highs breakdown, and storms recurve back to sea.

Just sayin.


That's probably correct.

I've started focusing in more on the area I live in...gulf coast. Not that I don't care about others, but just trying to narrow the search.

Systems can pop up quickly....like this beast did 41 years ago. Took 3 days from start to landfall......

I might wish for rain and be flooded, but I'm not wishing this on anyone....



Quoting IKE:


That's probably correct.

I've started focusing in more on the area I live in...gulf coast. Not that I don't care about others, but just trying to narrow the search.

Systems can pop up quickly....like this beast did 41 years ago. Took 3 days from start to landfall......

I might wish for rain and be flooded, but I'm not wishing this on anyone....



Hey now, put that away!
Quoting IKE:


That's probably correct.

I've started focusing in more on the area I live in...gulf coast. Not that I don't care about others, but just trying to narrow the search.

Systems can pop up quickly....like this beast did 41 years ago. Took 3 days from start to landfall......

I might wish for rain and be flooded, but I'm not wishing this on anyone....





Holy cow, it only took Camille 3 days to get that strong. Wow
Good morning Storm, Ike, DustinJeff, msgambler and all the rest of you fabulous bloggers! I have only been able to get on in the evenings lately after my summer break ended... the blog is such a different place in the evening., such a relief to be on here during the day.
2564. IKE
Quoting msgambler:
Hey now, put that away!


I've never seen 40-50 mph winds in Panama City,FL. off of a system making landfall that far west, before or after. She was just a beast of epic proportions.
Quoting IKE:


I've never seen 40-50 mph winds in Panama City,FL. off of a system making landfall that far west, before or after. She was just a beast of epic proportions.
You don't have to tell me my dear friend, I was in Gulfport, MS that God foresaken night.
Quoting StormW:


Yeah, I think there is. They are usually good at updating it on a daily basis.
thanks Storm..seems the favorable phase will be in our octant soon,,Do you really see and up tick next week or so?? I noticed the Euro model tryin to form something in northern gulf..Link
Good morning everyone!

93L looking better this morning after trimming off some convection...looks like Colin may have trimmed off too much convection though.

Latest best track on 93L:

AL, 93, 2010080612, , BEST, 0, 151N, 352W, 25, 1010, DB,

Good morning
Interesting article in KHOU in Houston


Houston woman predicts hurricanes with better track record than most

http://www.khou.com/news/Houston-woman-predicts-hurricanes-with-better-track-record-than-most-10009 7129.html

Have a great day!
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Good morning everyone!

93L looking better this morning after trimming off some convection...looks like Colin may have trimmed off too much convection though.



good morning MH09 would you happen to know why half of our post on pages 43 & 44 were removed? It was last night...
2571. ackee
question is the Bermuda High going to be weak throught rest of AUG and september that would be goods for all of us
Quoting ho77yw00d:


good morning MH09 would you happen to know why half of our post on pages 43 & 44 were removed? It was last night...
That's weird, none of them are removed now.
Quoting Hou77083:
Good morning
Interesting article in KHOU in Houston


Houston woman predicts hurricanes with better track record than most

http://www.khou.com/news/Houston-woman-predicts-hurricanes-with-better-track-record-than-most-10009 7129.html

Have a great day!

Caught my eye:
"We are calling for eight named storms. With five intesifying into hurricanes," Hasling said.

eight? If that verifies Ill eat my hat
Quoting ackee:
question is the Bermuda High going to be weak throught rest of AUG and september that would be goods for all of us
Actually if it is weak it would be bad for the SE U.S because that is indicative of a negative NAO.
04L/TS/C
MARK
26.99N/67.13W
COLIN TURNS NORTH-NORTHWEST AND SLOWS ITS FORWARD SPEED ...COLIN FISH STORM INVEST 93L FISH STORM MAYBE INVEST 94L FISH STORM
im thinkin pre94L will not be fish storm in my book
The new plots are out for 93L they changed it up compleately but anyway looking at steering 93L should continue it WNW movement for the next 3-6 hours then a Wward movement and then SWward movement then back W all in all I expect 93L to be located near 14/15N 50W sometime over Sat or Sun


AL, 93, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 13.8N 30.3W 25, 1009, LO,
AL, 93, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 14.1N 31.5W 25, 1009, LO,
AL, 93, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 14.5N 32.8W 25, 1008, DB,
AL, 93, 2010080606, , BEST, 0, 14.8N 34.0W 25, 1010, DB,
AL, 93, 2010080612, , BEST, 0, 15.1N 35.2W 25, 1010, DB,


OLD (WHAT IT WAS LAST NIGHT)

AL, 93, 2010080500, , BEST, 0, 11.5N 36.7W 20, 1010, LO,
AL, 93, 2010080506, , BEST, 0, 11.6N 36.2W 20, 1010, LO,
AL, 93, 2010080512, , BEST, 0, 11.9N 36.0W 25, 1009, LO,
AL, 93, 2010080518, , BEST, 0, 12.3N 35.8W 25, 1009, LO,
AL, 93, 2010080600, , BEST, 0, 12.7N 35.8W 25, 1008, DB,

Quoting Hou77083:
Good morning
Interesting article in KHOU in Houston


Houston woman predicts hurricanes with better track record than most

http://www.khou.com/news/Houston-woman-predicts-hurricanes-with-better-track-record-than-most-10009 7129.html

Have a great day!


Anyone know her address? Come Jan 1st I want to send her some baked crow. :)
Quoting SouthALWX:

Caught my eye:
"We are calling for eight named storms. With five intesifying into hurricanes," Hasling said.

eight? If that verifies Ill eat my hat
So you don't think there will be 8 named storms?
2584. divdog
Quoting Neapolitan:


My story, and I'm stickin' to it: 6-7 more in August, 6-7 in September, 3-4 October, 0-1 November. That is, from a low of 18/11/5 to a high of 22/13 /7 , for a median of 20/12/6.
too many
2585. surfmom
Post 2476 -- LOL -- now I'm choking on the coffee I was sipping just a few posts ago.. que sera sera , Like Pottery said - all will be revealed...buckled up amigo's.... seems like we got some rides out there
INV/93/L
MARK
15.23N/35.12W
Quoting btwntx08:


Lots of convergence out with 93L. 93L has a good chance of becoming TD5 by Tuesday IMO.


LAST NIGHT INVEST 93L WAS MOVING NORTH NOW ITS MOVING MORE WEST NOW AT WNW..???
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
That's weird, none of them are removed now.


Yea... thought it was really weird!
2590. ackee
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Actually if it is weak it would be bad for the SE U.S because that is indicative of a negative NAO.
would that cause possblie more fish storm as well
Looking at a Satellite loops it is noted that the circulation of Colin has begun to slide east-northeastward under new convective bursts.
Quoting SouthALWX:

Caught my eye:
"We are calling for eight named storms. With five intesifying into hurricanes," Hasling said.

eight? If that verifies Ill eat my hat



I think I remember who this is, they're part of some organization that uses sunspot cycles. They got 2009 right with 10 storms IIRC, but have utterly screwed up every single year since 1997. 2008 with 10, 2007 with 7, 2006 with 16, ect.
2594. divdog
not much to track today. sick colin and 93l which looks like it poses no threat at this point. slow is good
Quoting StormW:
Colin's LLC taking a jog to the ENE

VIS LOOP


Getting sucked in back towards the convection. Colin won't go that easily.
Quoting ackee:
would that cause possblie more fish storm as well
StormW explained it a couple times yesterday, let me see if I can find the post.
2598. P451
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
04L/TS/C
MARK
26.99N/67.13W


Jogging East in the final frames there.
2599. divdog
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Lots of convergence out with 93L. 93L has a good chance of becoming TD5 by Tuesday IMO.
and then out to sea life is good
What I love about recurvatures is that not only do they not affect no one but they are also plentiful to ACE.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
What I love about recurvatures is that not only do they not affect no one but they are also plentiful to ACE.


Usually.

Providing they don't hit Bermuda or end up being nasty extratropical systems that come my way. Which can happen.
Fishy fishy.
Almost looks like the quickest way to kill a Blob is to number it.



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Quoting Cotillion:


Usually.

Providing they don't hit Bermuda or end up being nasty extratropical systems that come my way. Which can happen.
That's true.
2605. ackee
if 2010 seasons turns out be active fish year that would be great hope 93L and other system to come will recurve for the rest seasons
2606. TxKeef
Quoting StormW:
Colin's LLC taking a jog to the ENE

VIS LOOP


That looks almost due east at the end. Maby my eyes are playing tricks on me.
Quoting ackee:
if 2010 seasons turns out be active fish year that would be great hope 93L and other system to come will recurve for the rest seasons


Amen, let's hope...
Quite right StormW that's if it recurves maybe this one might not recurve maybe 93L and pre-94L hates jasoncoolman2010xx and his fishes that they refuse to become them lol
No, it is saying that this more likely will not re-curve.

Quoting ackee:
would that cause possblie more fish storm as well


ICE STILLS MELTS
Morning all,

Check out my latest Colin forecast (created last late afternoon). I was forecasting a pass just west of Bermuda, and then the storm to curve eastward so it misses Newfoundland to the south.

Don't see how Colin is going to make it to Newfoundland, the ULL over eastern Canada seems its going to be north of Colin rather than NW of Colin so it bends it more eastward. Especially this morning, Colin's center is trackign so erratically that its not moving as fast to the north as it should be, which increases the chances that the Canada ULL will be north of the system rather than to its NW.
The year of the Atlantic fish storms? Let's hope so, although disturbances positioned in the NW Caribbean like the present one is could cause problems if they develop.
Guys this will not be the year of the fishes..this is only temporary as we are currently in a postive NAO right now and that is soon forecast to change starting in about a week or so as the NAO is going to go back to a negative phase.
Quoting StormW:


After I get my synopsis published to all of my clients, I'll post something in relation to that.
Ok, thank you very much.
According to the long-range GFS, the ridge will be broken up for at least the next 14 days. Expect any storms in the open Atlantic in the next 2 weeks to be fishes.
Thank you troy for explaining to those game-fish-casters
Quoting TropicalBruce:
The year of the Atlantic fish storms? Let's hope so, although disturbances positioned in the NW Caribbean like the present one is could cause problems if they develop.


Yeah, there's nowhere for 'em to go but land somewhere. Since I moved here, I have been keeping on watchful eye on the "slot" (Caribbean Sea) the end which is out my back door.
Quoting TxKeef:


That looks almost due east at the end. Maby my eyes are playing tricks on me.


No they're not, Colin is in fact drunken this morning and bending off to the east. It should be a short-term wobble, there's no way on earth steering currents right now support a long-term eastward motion for Colin right at this moment. Don't know why its been a'wobblin' since it regenerated. Perhaps, it tries to keep reforming toward its deep convection, which is mainly sheared east of center.
Quoting StormW:
Colin's LLC taking a jog to the ENE

VIS LOOP


Is this because the 2 ULL edys that were there last night are now just back to one large ULL that's pushing Collin back east?
Quoting StormW:


Now, I may be wrong on this, unless there is something I haven't learned yet about ULL's and their affect on storms, but let's look at it this way...I've noticed this season folks putting emphasis on ULL's steering all of these systems this year so far.

Let's take a look at this...A ULL is around the 300-200 mb level. A storm like Colin is being affected by the 700-850 mb steering layer mean. See what I am leaning towards?


That is the "shear" fact partner.
2623. FLdewey
It's going to make a beeline for the Florida coast soon.

Ssshhhhhh.... it's a test.
Quoting StormW:


Now, I may be wrong on this, unless there is something I haven't learned yet about ULL's and their affect on storms, but let's look at it this way...I've noticed this season folks putting emphasis on ULL's steering all of these systems this year so far.

Let's take a look at this...A ULL is around the 300-200 mb level. A storm like Colin is being affected by the 700-850 mb steering layer mean. See what I am leaning towards?


In my forecast discussion, I stated the ULL and shortwave troughs extending from it are supporting a few surface fronts and surface lows. So, I see this ULL feature as a deep-layered feature that can affect the lower-level steering layers too.
2625. srada
Good Morning Everyone..

Thank goodness Colin is no longer a threat and it looks like that African train is following the same suit in turning away from the US..I said last month that this season will not be Cape Verde storms but the ones that pop us close to home.
Models seem to be off on 93L, notice the current movement (WNW) and models already have it going NW.. what gives?
The A-B high will shift postions back and forth over the next two months so to declare this season a fish is a bit pre-mature and we will certainly have a few storms get through.....However, my personal preference would be for all the majors to be fishes...... :)
Quoting SavannahStorm:
According to the long-range GFS, the ridge will be broken up for at least the next 14 days. Expect any storms in the open Atlantic in the next 2 weeks to be fishes.

too far out dont expect that
Quoting FLdewey:
It's going to make a beeline for the Florida coast soon.

Ssshhhhhh.... it's a test.
From TropicalAmanda to TropicalBruce. I'm not sure though, lol.
Quoting reedzone:
Models seem to be off on 93L, notice the current movement (WNW) and models already have it going NW.. what gives?


I think the models are initalized as if this thing was a full-fleged tropical cyclone (sort of a "what-if it was a tropical cyclone now?" scenario). For example, the BAMD (beta advection model deep) is forecasts tracks based on the system being a deep-layered, stronger tropical cyclone, and has 93L moving NW while getting some influence by the weak upper low to its northwest.
2632. divdog
Quoting reedzone:
Models seem to be off on 93L, notice the current movement (WNW) and models already have it going NW.. what gives?
no worries with 93l
I think we should all try to use the term "fish storm" a little more often when referring to tropical cyclones which spend all or most of their lifetime spinning harmlessly away in the middle of the high seas; I so seldom see that particular cliche used here. ;-)

Seriously: I'd much rather see a hundred of them than a single "people storm". Wouldn't anyone?
2634. beell
Quoting StormW:


Now, I may be wrong on this, unless there is something I haven't learned yet about ULL's and their affect on storms, but let's look at it this way...I've noticed this season folks putting emphasis on ULL's steering all of these systems this year so far.

Let's take a look at this...A ULL is around the 300-200 mb level. A storm like Colin is being affected by the 700-850 mb steering layer mean. See what I am leaning towards?


I've never been one to attach much significance to ULL's as far as steering. I suppose if you have a repeating pattern of ULL's over the same area a weakness may manifest itself in the lower levels-so, agreed. What I have noticed is quite a few folks disregarding their effect on development and maintenence of TC's.
Quoting StormW:


Now, I may be wrong on this, unless there is something I haven't learned yet about ULL's and their affect on storms, but let's look at it this way...I've noticed this season folks putting emphasis on ULL's steering all of these systems this year so far.

Let's take a look at this...A ULL is around the 300-200 mb level. A storm like Colin is being affected by the 700-850 mb steering layer mean. See what I am leaning towards?


From Landsea 1995:

Finally, it is generally accepted that the motion of the TC is primarily the result of the deep layer flow in which it resides, usually taken to be from 850 to 200 mb (Elsberry 1987). V & D have suggested, however, that tropical storms and weak hurricanes (central pressure > 975 mb) are generally guided by flow lower (850 to 500 mb) in the atmosphere. While TUTTs are primarily maximum in strength at 200 mb, many times they can extend into the mid-troposphere. Thus, they can often influence the current and future motion of a nearby TC of any intensity. It has also been shown recently that the infringement of a deep baroclinic layer of westerly winds upon a TC can be a precursor to recurvature, since this usually precedes encroachment of deeper westerly flow close to the poleward side of the storm center.
Meanwhile.. ex-92L.
I really believe if Colin wasn't speeding a few days ago, we would have had "Hurricane Colin". Dry air did not totally disrupt the storm, it was the speed, which caused favorable wind shear to turn unfavorable. The models just didn't catch the speed of this system.
2640. FLdewey
Phish storm?
Quoting StormSurgeon:


Fish storm
Fish storm
Fish storm........etc....


Wow. Thanks for contributing so much to the dialog. ;-)
We're going to be having some extremely high astronomical tides here next week. One day we have a 10.0ft high tide and a -1.1ft low tide- an 11.1ft tidal swing! That's almost like the Bay of Fundy... I expect some flooding will occur on the islands.

Tides for Savannah Sheraton Resort Hotel starting with August 7, 2010.

Day High Tide Height Sunrise Moon Time % Moon
/Low Time Feet Sunset Visible

Sa 7 Low 12:22 AM 0.8 6:44 AM Rise 3:43 AM 14
7 High 6:27 AM 7.5 8:16 PM Set 6:21 PM
7 Low 12:32 PM -0.2
7 High 7:01 PM 9.3

Su 8 Low 1:19 AM 0.3 6:44 AM Rise 4:53 AM 7
8 High 7:26 AM 7.9 8:15 PM Set 7:09 PM
8 Low 1:29 PM -0.6
8 High 7:57 PM 9.8

M 9 Low 2:12 AM -0.2 6:45 AM Rise 6:05 AM 2
9 High 8:23 AM 8.4 8:14 PM Set 7:52 PM
9 Low 2:26 PM -0.9
9 High 8:50 PM 10.0

Tu 10 Low 3:04 AM -0.7 6:46 AM Rise 7:17 AM 0
10 High 9:17 AM 8.9 8:13 PM Set 8:31 PM
10 Low 3:21 PM -1.1
10 High 9:41 PM 10.0


W 11 Low 3:53 AM -1.0 6:46 AM Rise 8:29 AM 0
11 High 10:10 AM 9.1 8:12 PM Set 9:08 PM
11 Low 4:14 PM -1.1
11 High 10:31 PM 9.9

Th 12 Low 4:42 AM -1.1 6:47 AM Rise 9:39 AM 4
12 High 11:04 AM 9.3 8:11 PM Set 9:44 PM
12 Low 5:07 PM -0.9
12 High 11:23 PM 9.5

Wow quite a few on here are stating that it's going to be a fish season? Man, I have 9 out of 11 invest/storms tracked so far this year and only 2 of them have recurved/potentially will recurve. Thats far from being a fish season. Some of you may want to reconsider that premature assumption.
2645. divdog
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Meanwhile.. ex-92L.
heading inland no worries
Quoting Neapolitan:


Wow. Thanks for contributing so much to the dialog. ;-)


You're welcome, I'm not feeling very "wordy" this morning. I guess I'll hit the shower and wake up.
2647. hercj
Quoting reedzone:
Models seem to be off on 93L, notice the current movement (WNW) and models already have it going NW.. what gives?

Reed I have been looking at that all morning. The water vapor loop doesn't give a clue as to why they would all take this thing nnw. I hope you can figure it out.
2648. scott39
Goodmorning, How long will the trend last for TCs to curve out to sea?
Quoting StormW:


Now, I may be wrong on this, unless there is something I haven't learned yet about ULL's and their affect on storms, but let's look at it this way...I've noticed this season folks putting emphasis on ULL's steering all of these systems this year so far.

Let's take a look at this...A ULL is around the 300-200 mb level. A storm like Colin is being affected by the 700-850 mb steering layer mean. See what I am leaning towards?


When those thunderstorms stick their "heads" up into the mid & upper levels and tilt the stack, doesn't the storm kind of need to follow where it's energy is being produced, either by shifting track or reforming an LLC/MLC?
2651. scott39
StormW, Have you heard about a homegrown in the NE GOM early next week?
Quoting hercj:

Reed I have been looking at that all morning. The water vapor loop doesn't give a clue as to why they would all take this thing nnw. I hope you can figure it out.


It's a classic situation where one storm heads out to sea, the other one heads more west. We've seen this in 1999 with Floyd and Gert, Floyd went up the coastline, Gert went out to sea. 1996, Edouard swiped New England, Fran hit the Carolinas. Gonna find some more years lol, there are more, but it's a climatological pattern. What happens is the ridge normally builds after a weakness takes a storm. The NOGAPS is the only model moving 93L westward towards the islands and should not be discounted.
2008, Hanna went up the coastline, Ike went to Texas.
2655. Jax82
Colin may go over bermuda, newfoundland may be spared since all the convection seems to be on the eastern side of the storm.

2657. hercj
Quoting reedzone:


It's a classic situation where one storm heads out to sea, the other one heads more west. We've seen this in 1999 with Floyd and Gert, Floyd went up the coastline, Gert went out to sea. 1996, Edouard swiped New England, Fran hit the Carolinas. Gonna find some more years lol, there are more, but it's a climatological pattern. What happens is the ridge normally builds after a weakness takes a storm. The NOGAPS is the only model moving 93L westward towards the islands and should not be discounted.

Thanks Reed, when I look at the water vapor loop there is absolutely nowhere but west this can go at least for the next 24.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Meanwhile.. ex-92L.


Yeah, I've been watching that grow as well. Looks like the Caymans will get a nice shower out of this. It thought it was supposed to head west over Nicarauga, or is this a left over from 92L? I guess it isn't an AOI as far as the NHC shows on their site. Hmmm.
Quoting StormW:


And CMC and ECMWF as of this mornings runs (earlier)


Just about ready to say that....lol
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


From Landsea 1995:

Finally, it is generally accepted that the motion of the TC is primarily the result of the deep layer flow in which it resides, usually taken to be from 850 to 200 mb (Elsberry 1987). V & D have suggested, however, that tropical storms and weak hurricanes (central pressure > 975 mb) are generally guided by flow lower (850 to 500 mb) in the atmosphere. While TUTTs are primarily maximum in strength at 200 mb, many times they can extend into the mid-troposphere. Thus, they can often influence the current and future motion of a nearby TC of any intensity. It has also been shown recently that the infringement of a deep baroclinic layer of westerly winds upon a TC can be a precursor to recurvature, since this usually precedes encroachment of deeper westerly flow close to the poleward side of the storm center.


Now, look at this surface map from the NWS:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

Keep in mind when looking at the surface map the ULL is centered over the southern Hudson Bay right now. The ULL is supporting a surface low with a front extending along the east coast of New England. There are westerlies along the frontal zone. So, the south side of the ULL and surface front are producing mass deep-layered westerlies poleward to Colin. I believe Colin will meet those westerlies and bend eastward with time, passing south of Newfoundland.

Now, if Colin was much further north than it is now, it would end up meeting deep-layered southwesterlies southeast of the ULL and surface fronts, taking it more NE. But it seems the ULL and front are going to be more toward the north of Colin, not to the NW of Colin. Especially this morning, Colin is taking longer to go north as it moves erratically.
Quoting reedzone:
2008, Hanna went up the coastline, Ike went to Texas.



Colin does not appear to be going as far West as you predicted yesterday. I did not think it would!
Quoting StormW:


And CMC and ECMWF as of this mornings runs (earlier)


Just saw those, thanks.. You do see my point though right? It's a pattern storms like to have
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


ICE STILLS MELTS



ITS STILL SUMMER
Quoting TampaSpin:



Colin does not appear to be going as far West as you predicted yesterday. I did not think it would!


I wasn't the only one predicting it to affect the USA, I really wish you people would leave me alone and go bother other people that predicted the same thing, even Levi messed up on this one.
Did anyone notice the ECMWF tryin to form some type system in GOM?? Link
2003, Fabian went to Bermuda, Isabel hit the Carolinas.. again, a pattern systems like to have.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



ITS STILL SUMMER



Yes, it is...and the globe is still getting warmer. Put those together, and, as KOTG says: ICE STILL MELTS.
2670. tramp96
Quoting reedzone:


I wasn't the only one predicting it to affect the USA, I really wish you people would leave me alone and go bother other people that predicted the same thing, even Levi messed up on this one.

And Crown Weather.
Quoting reedzone:


I wasn't the only one predicting it to affect the USA, I really wish you people would leave me alone and go bother other people that predicted the same thing, even Levi messed up on this one.


Even I stated it would go further west. I'll admit i was wrong too. I give props to NHC for getting the track with Colin for the most part right so far out.
Colon Blow! :)

2673. scott39
Quoting stormhank:
Did anyone notice the ECMWF tryin to form some type system in GOM?? Link
Could you post a link for an animated ECMWF?
Quoting stormhank:
Did anyone notice the ECMWF tryin to form some type system in GOM?? Link


Yup, StormW mentioned it in his update. Might happen.
2675. FLdewey
I guess even the NHC gets it right now and then... he he he.
I was one of the ones who had this system figured out from the get go. LOL! In the scheme of things that doesn't amount to a hill-o-beans, but what the HEY! I got it right!
Quoting reedzone:


I wasn't the only one predicting it to affect the USA, I really wish you people would leave me alone and go bother other people that predicted the same thing, even Levi messed up on this one.


I was not attacking you!
Quoting reedzone:
2003, Fabian went to Bermuda, Isabel hit the Carolinas.. again, a pattern systems like to have.


Aye, yaye, yaah... I hope that 93L and Colin aren't going to end up like your examples. A lot of those examples (Floyd and Gert, Isabel and Fabian, Fran and Edouard) have one of those storm hitting NC where I live.

Anyway, I think its a little early to know what the long-term threat of 93L would be.
2679. BDAwx
the Bermuda weather service didn't initially think it would have an impact on Bermuda.
2680. breald
Quoting TampaSpin:


I was not attacking you!


You might not have been attacking him but many other bloggers are relentless in their unwarranted criticism.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Now, look at this surface map from the NWS:

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/90fwbg.gif

Keep in mind when looking at the surface map the ULL is centered over the southern Hudson Bay right now. The ULL is supporting a surface low with a front extending along the east coast of New England. There are westerlies along the frontal zone. So, the south side of the ULL and surface front are producing mass deep-layered westerlies poleward to Colin. I believe Colin will meet those westerlies and bend eastward with time, passing south of Newfoundland.

Now, if Colin was much further north than it is now, it would end up meeting deep-layered southwesterlies southeast of the ULL and surface fronts, taking it more NE. But it seems the ULL and front are going to be more toward the north of Colin, not to the NW of Colin. Especially this morning, Colin is taking longer to go north as it moves erratically.


It's all relative for the moment; there is a TUTT cell pretty much centered over Bermuda right now and Colin is approaching the southern edge of that cell (hence the decoupling this morning). When Colin (or ex-Colin) gets close or very near to Bermuda, the TUTT flow will shart shifting to the East (assuming is it still centered in that location) but I don't know that it will take Colin "that" far to the NE.....Just my opinon/thought.
2682. divdog
Quoting reedzone:


I wasn't the only one predicting it to affect the USA, I really wish you people would leave me alone and go bother other people that predicted the same thing, even Levi messed up on this one.
If you are going to forecast you need thick skin around here.
Ladies and Gents:

Get your reels and rods, instead of the computer models, to have fun with this fish season.
2684. hercj
Quoting StormW:


Yes. I'm gonna post on that stuff...I've sort of noticed things when the season transitions from a negative to positive and vice versa NAO. Right now, we are seeing increased re-curvature, as we have just peaked in a positive NAO.



Senior, here is a question for you. Given NASA's new found interest in tropical cyclone genesis and recon, if you were advising them would 93L be a system to try and fly?
I'm not sure 93L will make that big turn as it seems the Models have somewhat backed off some. The A/B High could build back in and put the breaks on!
I have to thank the Senior Chief again for all his experience and analysis, and patience in sharing all that with us.
Thanks StormW!
Quoting Eugeniopr:
Ladies and Gents:

Get your reels and rods, instead of the computer models, to have fun with this fish season.


I agree. I think we will see many recurvatures, out to sea with no threat to land with the majority of CVs this year.

However, there's still the hot Gulf to worry about. Any stalled trough that digs down low enough could spawn off a system that winds up being a killer blow!
2688. FLdewey
Hang in there... (picture that cat poster)
2689. Jax82
I wonder how good many on here would be at forecasting without the help of a computer model? Probably not many, because you wouldnt have models to jump on the bandwagon with. A better way to learn about forecasting is to look at the components that goes into the models. I'll be honest, I have no idea how some of these models work, i just see what they produce!! Is there any online literature about the different models and the formulas they use to determine a storm track?
In the position of 93L most systems do not recurve at that position. The recurve is usually further West as the Azores High is usually strong enough to push any system further West and then recurve. I am beginning to doubt the recurve will happen with 93L before the Bermuda High builds back in. Could be that open Slot between the two highs for 93L to go......but, it won't move there if it is not strong enough. If 93L stays weak, West 93L will move further!
2691. pottery
Quoting KennyNebraska:


I agree. I think we will see many recurvatures, out to sea with no threat to land with the majority of CVs this year.

However, there's still the hot Gulf to worry about. Any stalled trough that digs down low enough could spawn off a system that winds up being a killer blow!

I hope you are correct.
But it is not possible to accurately predict how CV systems will track next week, far less beyond that....
Isn't there supposed to be pretty significant trough that comes through and would sweep 93L out to sea 5-7 days from now even if it doesnt slip in what the models are showing a ridge weakness?
Quoting TampaSpin:
In the position of 93L most systems do not recurve at that position. The recurve is usually further West as the Azores High is usually strong enough to push any system further West and then recurve. I am beginning to doubt the recurve will happen with 93L before the Bermuda High builds back in. Could be that open Slot between the two highs for 93L to go......but, it won't move there if it is not strong enough. If 93L stays weak, West 93L will move further!


I Belive Laster in August we will get a long westward tracking Cape verde storm.
Quoting Jax82:
I wonder how good many on here would be at forecasting without the help of a computer model? Probably not many, because you wouldnt have models to jump on the bandwagon with. A better way to learn about forecasting is to look at the components that goes into the models. I'll be honest, I have no idea how some of these models work, i just see what they produce!! Is there any online literature about the different models and the formulas they use to determine a storm track?




Link NCAR in Boulder - a fellow alumnus is a research scientist here - Dr. John Persing

Link

my tropical met prof when I was at Millersville is now part of the FSU research team - Dr. Robert Ross
Quoting StormW:


Actually, I haven't really relied on the computer models most of this season.


2699. hercj
Quoting StormW:


If they could get something out there, yes.

Well see thats the thing the DC-8 can base in Barbados and get all the way out to 40W and back. I mean if they are going to try and get cyclogen data they are going to have to be there when it starts. Right?
Quoting sammywammybamy:

aaarrrrhhhh, Colin is naked.... LOL
Just looked at all the models the CMC and NGP both take 93L further West. Interesting at the end of the NGP run is the Bermuda High starts to build back in as one can see off the East coast as the start of the rebuild.



2702. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:

aaarrrrhhhh, Colin is naked.... LOL

No peeping...........
Quoting weathermanwannabe:


It's all relative for the moment; there is a TUTT cell pretty much centered over Bermuda right now and Colin is approaching the southern edge of that cell (hence the decoupling this morning). When Colin (or ex-Colin) gets close or very near to Bermuda, the TUTT flow will shart shifting to the East (assuming is it still centered in that location) but I don't know that it will take Colin "that" far to the NE.....Just my opinon/thought.


IMO, the ULL N of Colin is a shallow, weak feature that really won't steer it (but I do agree that this may be the cause of this morning's decoupling). The ULL over eastern Canada is more substantial because it has major surface reflections (i.e. it supports surface front and extratropical low). Thus, its influence is more deep-layered, and I think it will curve Colin more eastward. I wasn't refering to the ULL just N of Colin, but the ULL over east Canada bending Colin's track eastward.

While Colin keeps loligagin around, the big ULL over eastern Canada continues eastward. That means Colin will more likely end up on its south side (curve more eastward) rather than end up on its southeast side (which would keep it on a more northeastward track).
Quoting pottery:

No peeping...........

i wish Colin would either put some clothes on or pull the shower curtain closed.
Quoting Eugeniopr:
Ladies and Gents:

Get your reels and rods, instead of the computer models, to have fun with this fish season.


You know what's funny? Alex, TD2, and Bonnie are all ignored in that statement. Colin's going out to sea thanks to a unseasonable trough, 93L might follow, 'might', as the models are now starting to shift westward. One or two systems are not a indicator of the season.
2707. pottery
Quoting AussieStorm:

i wish Colin would either put some clothes on or pull the shower curtain closed.

Oh, I dont know. He looks quite, er, well we wont go there.....
Have a Great Evening, Aussie!
StormW- Good morning, how are ya, hope ya have a great day. i see alot of folks saying this looks like a season with recurves what do you think?

Has anyone see Flood, haven't seen him in a couple of days hope he's alright.

Sheri
2710. Thaale
000
WTNT44 KNHC 061449
TCDAT4
TROPICAL STORM COLIN DISCUSSION NUMBER 11
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL042010
1100 AM AST FRI AUG 06 2010

COLIN SHOWS A CLASSIC SHEAR PATTERN THIS MORNING WITH THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER EXPOSED TO THE WEST OF THE MAIN CONVECTIVE MASS BY 20-25 KT
OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK AND AMSU SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY
AND REMAIN NEAR 35 KT. BASED ON THIS...THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 40 KT...AND THIS COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE COLIN
AROUND 18Z TODAY.

JUST AFTER THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY...THE CENTER OF COLIN TOOK A SHARP
TURN TO THE RIGHT...AND IT HAS BEEN MOVING 065/6 FOR THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS. THIS IS LIKELY TO BE TEMPORARY...AS THE SYNOPTIC
PATTERN OF HIGHER PRESSURES TO THE EAST AND LOWER PRESSURES TO THE
WEST SUPPORT A MOTION TOWARD THE NORTH DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HR.
THAT MOTION SHOULD BRING COLIN NORTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS
INTO THE WESTERLIES...WHICH IN TURN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE
NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THE TRACK GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO...BUT THERE REMAIN SOME
SPREAD IN THE SPEED BETWEEN THE SLOWER GFS AND THE FASTER NOGAPS.
THE NEW FORECAST TRACK IS NUDGED TO THE EAST BASED ON THE INITIAL
POSITION AND MOTION AND IS IN BEST OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THE UKMET
AND ECMWF. SOME ADDITIONAL ADJUSTMENT MAY BE NECESSARY LATER
TODAY...DEPENDING ON HOW LONG COLIN CONTINUES THE CURRENT MOTION.

SHEAR FORECASTS FROM THE SHIPS AND THE DYNAMICAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT
THE CURRENT SHOULD SHOULD DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HR...
ALTHOUGH THE SHIPS MODEL MAY BE OVERLY OPTIMISTIC WITH ITS FORECAST
OF 11 KT OF SHEAR BY 00Z. AFTER THIS...COLIN IS LIKELY TO REMAIN
IN AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING UNTIL IT REACHES
STRONGER SHEAR IN THE MAIN BELT OF THE WESTERLIES IN ABOUT 72 HR.
THE GFDL AND HWRF FORECAST COLIN TO BECOME A HURRICANE BY 72 HR...
WHILE THE SHIPS AND LGEM ARE LESS AGGRESSIVE. THE FORECAST PEAK
INTENSITY OF 60 KT IS A COMPROMISE BETWEEN THESE EXTREMES IN
AGREEMENT WITH THE INTENSITY CONSENSUS. EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION
SHOULD BEGIN AT ABOUT 72 HR AND BE COMPLETE BY 96 HR...WITH THE
DYNAMICAL MODELS FORECASTING COLIN TO REMAIN A STRONG CYCLONE
THROUGH THAT PROCESS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 06/1500Z 27.1N 66.9W 40 KT
12HR VT 07/0000Z 28.3N 66.9W 40 KT
24HR VT 07/1200Z 30.2N 66.3W 45 KT
36HR VT 08/0000Z 32.2N 65.4W 50 KT
48HR VT 08/1200Z 34.5N 64.1W 55 KT
72HR VT 09/1200Z 39.5N 60.0W 60 KT
96HR VT 10/1200Z 45.0N 52.0W 55 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT 11/1200Z 53.0N 41.5W 50 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
11:00 AM AST Fri Aug 6
Location: 27.1°N 66.9°W
Max sustained: 45 mph
Moving: ENE at 7 mph
Min pressure: 1007 mb
Quoting pottery:

No peeping...........


I peeked and there's no junk in his trunk.

sheri
2715. SLU
NOW TIME TO VACATE THE OLD BLOG!
The NHC forecasts Colin to become a 70mph tropical storm in 72 hours before making an extratropical transition.
Quoting StormW:


I think this is only temporary...Mother Nature going "na nana...na na"



Storm that was funny
2718. pottery
Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I peeked and there's no junk in his trunk.

sheri

:):)
NEW BLOG!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You know what's funny? Alex, TD2, and Bonnie are all ignored in that statement. Colin's going out to sea thanks to a unseasonable trough, 93L might follow, 'might', as the models are now starting to shift westward. One or two systems are not a indicator of the season.


Teddy --- That guy became #40 on my list. I truly am now a firm believer that the ignore list is the way to go, my blood pressure was only 130 over 85 this morning and I contribute that to the 100% increase on that list over the last couple of days... LOL
guys couple of things before I go

1 92L is making a comback look like to at 16.5N 82.5W

2 93L might not become a fish and maybe impact the leeward Islands

3 colin seems to be moving east now

4 pre-94L what is going on !?!?
.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


IMO, the ULL N of Colin is a shallow, weak feature that really won't steer it (but I do agree that this may be the cause of this morning's decoupling). The ULL over eastern Canada is more substantial because it has major surface reflections (i.e. it supports surface front and extratropical low). Thus, its influence is more deep-layered, and I think it will curve Colin more eastward. I wasn't refering to the ULL just N of Colin, but the ULL over east Canada bending Colin's track eastward.

While Colin keeps loligagin around, the big ULL over eastern Canada continues eastward. That means Colin will more likely end up on its south side (curve more eastward) rather than end up on its southeast side (which would keep it on a more northeastward track).


I hear ya; but it might be whatever is "left" of Colin............ :)
The former and present "92L" (formerly 98L under witness protection) reminds me of me: Getting uglier every day. Headed right to my house, but although it is puckering up to blow, I think it'll push too far west (on my house and I'm takin' a cold shower to ward it off and, because as hot and sticky as it has been, it just feel so doggone good!) to make much of a go of it.
Now this is just a comment on the "now" casters:
The seasons just started eh? (like I'm from Canada or something) trying to base the whole season on these first few skirmishes is like trying to tell how good a wife a woman will be by the first kiss. IMHO I must add.