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Colin arrives; extreme heat records fall for Ukraine and 5 U.S. cities

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 12:16 PM GMT on August 03, 2010

Tropical Storm Colin has made its debut over the Atlantic, but does not appear to be a threat to any land areas over the next five days. Satellite imagery shows that Colin is intensifying, as both the intensity and areal extent of heavy thunderstorms has increased over the past few hours. A respectable low-level spiral band is developing to the north of the center, and upper-level outflow is beginning to appear on all sides of the storm. Colin is a very small storm, and its tropical storm force winds extend out just 30 miles from the center. Colin passed about 50 miles south of Buoy 41041 early this morning, and generated top sustained winds of 27 mph at the buoy. There is some dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) to the northwest of Colin, but this dry air is not getting entrained into Colin at present. Wind shear is a low 5 - 10 knots and sea surface temperatures are a very warm 28 - 29°C, so continued development is likely today. The main negative for development appears to be the storm's small size, which makes it vulnerable to modest increases in wind shear or dry air entrainment. The first flight of the Hurricane Hunters into Colin is scheduled for Wednesday morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Tropical Storm Colin.

Forecast for Colin
The latest 6Z (2am EDT) models are fairly unified taking Colin to the west-northwest at 20 - 25 mph for the next three days. This would bring squalls from the storm's outer rainbands to the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, such as Antigua and Barbuda, by Wednesday afternoon. The center of Colin should pass to the northeast of the islands, and the storm is small enough that the islands are unlikely to experience tropical storm force winds. As Colin makes its closest approach to the Lesser Antilles on Wednesday night, the storm will begin to encounter strong upper-level westerly winds associated with the counter-clockwise flow of air around an upper-level low pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts that these winds will cause wind shear to rise to the moderate level, 10 - 20 knots, by Wednesday morning, and to the high level, 20 - 30 knots, by Thursday. There is considerable dry air associated with the upper level low that should cause problems for Colin, as well. The high wind shear and dry air should weaken Colin. NHC is giving Colin a 25% chance of attaining hurricane status this week.

A trough of low pressure is expected to move off the U.S. East Coast on Friday, and this trough will pull Colin to the northwest and cause it to slow down on Wednesday. By Friday, Colin will be moving at half of its current speed. It is unclear if the trough of low pressure will be strong enough to fully recurve Colin out to sea late this week. Some of the models predict Colin will not recurve out to sea, and that high pressure will build back in this weekend, forcing Colin towards the U.S. East Coast. A second trough of low pressure is predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast next Monday, so Colin will have a second opportunity to recurve out to sea then. It is possible that Colin could make landfall along the U.S. East Coast or in the Canadian Maritime provinces 7 - 10 days from now, though it is still too early to assess the risk of this happening, nor how strong Colin might be.

Ukraine ties its record for hottest temperature in history
On August 1, Ukraine tied its record for hottest temperature in its history when the mercury hit 41.3°C (106.3°F) at Lukhansk. The Ukraine also reached 41.3°C on July 20 and 21, 2007, at Voznesensk. Sixteen of 225 nations on Earth have set extreme highest temperature in history records this year, the most of any year. The year 2007 is in second place, with fifteen such records.

Five major U.S. cities record their warmest month in history during July
July 2010 was the warmest month in history for five U.S. cities:

Las Vegas, NV: 96.2°F (old record: 95.3°F, July 2005).
Atlantic City, NJ: 79.8°F (old record: 78.7°F, July 1983)
Washington, D.C.: 83.1°F (tied with July 1993)
Baltimore, MD: 81.5°F (tied with July 1995)
Trenton, NJ: 80.5°F (tied with July 1955)

Also, in June, Miami, FL recorded its warmest month in history: 85.6°F (old record: 85.4°F in June 1998.)

Commentary
None of the 303 major U.S. cities listed in the records section of Chris Burt's book Extreme Weather has set a coldest month in history record since 1994 (these 303 cites were selected to represent a broad spectrum of U.S. climate zones, are not all big cities, have a good range of elevations, and in most cases have data going back to the 1880s.) There were just three such records (1% of the 303 major U.S. cities) set in the past twenty years, 1991 - 2010. In contrast, 97 out of 303 major U.S. cities (32%) set records for their warmest month in history during the past twenty years. It is much harder to set a coldest month in history record than a coldest day in history record in a warming climate, since it requires cold for an extended period of time--not just a sudden extreme cold snap.

Are the pattern of U.S. temperature records due to the Urban Heat Island effect?
Is the huge disparity between extreme heat records and extreme cold records in the U.S. due to global warming, or the Urban Heat Island effect? The Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect occurs when development of former natural areas into pavement and buildings allows more heat to be trapped in cities, particularly at night. During the day, the UHI effect often leads to a slight cooling, since it can increase the amount of turbulence, allowing cooler air to get mixed down to the surface. For example, Moreno-Garcia (1994) found that Barcelona, Spain was 0.2°C cooler for daily maxima and 2.9°C warmer for minima than a nearby rural station.

However, temperature records are typically taken in parks and airports removed from the main heat-trapping areas of cities, and are not as strongly affected as one might expect. There are several reasons for this. One is that when tall buildings are present, they tend to block the view to the sky, meaning that not as much heat can escape upwards. In addition, the presence of moist vegetation keeps the atmosphere moister in park-like areas (which include the grassy fields near airports where temperature measurements are taken). This extra moisture helps cool the atmosphere on a local scale of tens of meters, due to latent heat effects (the energy required to convert liquid water to water vapor). Peterson (2003) found that "Contrary to generally accepted wisdom, no statistically significant impact of urbanization could be found in annual temperatures." The study used satellite-based night-light detection to identify urban areas. Recent research by Spronken-Smith and Oke (1998) concluded that there was a marked park cool island effect within the Urban Heat Island. They found that parks in typical cities in the U.S. have temperatures 1 - 2°C cooler than the surrounding city--and sometimes more than 5°C cooler. While the Urban Heat Island effect probably has contributed to some of the reduction in record low temperatures in the U.S. in the past decade, research by Parker (2004, 2006) and Peterson (2003) theorizes that Urban Heat Island effect is a factor ten or more less important than rising temperatures due to global warming.

Chris Burt wrote me yesterday about Las Vegas' all-time warmest month record set in July. He noted that none of the sites nearby Las Vegas' McCarran Airport (where the official obs are kept) came close to setting a warmest month in history record. McCarran Airport has set new warmest month in history records in 2003, 2005, and now 2010. These two facts make us suspect that in the case of Las Vegas, an urban heat island effect may be contributing to the spate of recent warmest month in history records there. The heat records for Atlantic City, Washington D.C., Baltimore, and Trenton do not appear to have as much of a UHI influence, since record highs were set over such a large area of the mid-Atlantic in July.

Is the Urban Heat Island effect partially responsible for global warming?
Global warming is affecting the entire Earth, including rural areas far from cities, and the 70% of the world covered by ocean. Thus, the Urban Heat Island effect--if not corrected for--can cause only a small impact on the global temperature figures. Since the Urban Heat Island is corrected for, the impact on the observed global warming signal should be negligible. For instance, NASA uses satellite-derived night light observations to classify stations as rural and urban and corrects the urban stations so that they match the trends from the rural stations before gridding the data. Other techniques (such as correcting for population growth) have also been used. Despite these corrections, and the fact that the Urban Heat Island effect impacts only a relatively small portion of the globe, global warming skeptics have persistently used the Urban Heat Island effect to attack the validity of global warming. There are no published peer-reviewed scientific studies that support these attacks.

References
Parker, D.E., 2004, "Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", Nature 432, 290, doi:10.1038/432290a, 2004.

Parker, D.E., 2006, "A Demonstration that Large-Scale Warming is not Urban", J. Climate 19, pp2882-2986, 2006.

Peterson, T.C., "Assessment of urban versus rural in situ surface temperatures in the contiguous United States: No difference found", Journal of Climate, 16, 2941-2959, 2003.

Spronken-Smith, R. A., and T. R. Oke, 1998: "The thermal regime of urban parks in two cities with different summer climates. Int. J. Remote Sens., 19, 20852104.

The surface temperature record and the urban heat island, realclimate.org post, 2004.

Next update
I have a series of meetings today that will probably keep me from making another post, and keep me from doing my weekly Internet radio show, Hurricane Haven. I'll be back Wednesday morning, at the latest, with a new post.

Jeff Masters

Heat Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Storm, so it looks like your path for ex-Colin is now east of the NHC last advisory, correct? I guess the eastern seaboard is for the most part in the clear whether it regenerates or not?
3002. aquak9
whoa...seeing DocMaster's post is about as good as a shot of espresso.

G'morning zoo! and everyone else i've missed.
Good morning everyone I see we have two systems with potential over the next few days and the 12z Euro attempts to develop a tropical wave in 192 hours out or so.
3005. MahFL
Do we have a center for ex Colin ?
3007. 7544
dont think he would go that far west jason he may turn nw before that imo
I'm a little surprised at the lack of model support for 92L, given the very favorable conditions its in now and ahead.
92L might have decent wind shear and steering ahead of it, it seems.
Morning All.

Interesting run from the NoGaps. If memory serves me correctly, it was the first to pick up on Jeanne getting stuck and not going out to sea.

And no, I am not saying it's going to FLA, lol.
3011. Drakoen
Quoting MahFL:
Do we have a center for ex Colin ?


12z coordinates say 17.8N 59.5W
Quoting StormW:
Good morning Drak!


Good morning
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
Good morning everyone I see we have two systems with potential over the next few days and the 12z Euro attempts to develop a tropical wave in 192 hours out or so.


06z GFS showed how things look in the EATL pretty well with the placement of the convection...and it forms a low out of it in 72 hours, and sends it north. Might be a weak TS Earl who knows?
Quoting StormW:


No...if you go to my synopsis, and run satellite loops, place the Tropical Points overlay on, and also look at the model guidance I posted, I like what they have in the overlay.


Anyway. It will be intresting to see collin regenerate no matter where he goes.
3015. Drakoen
Ex-Colin 11:45UTC

SAB: 1.5
TAFB: 2.0
WE BETTER WATCH INVEST 92l here
New invest in the East Pacific


EP 99 2010080412 BEST 0 95N 945W 20 0 DB
Looks like we'll get a recon today too into ex-Colin.
3020. 7544
colin numbers show a td again drake /?
Quoting Drakoen:


12z coordinates say 17.8N 59.5W

Good morning
this is where i have it pegged

04L/REM LOW
MARK
18.37N/59.49W
Good Morning/Evening

Wow, Colin went from the third named storm to not even trackin with the invests on the tropical weather page in less than 12 hrs. I thought it would take longer to downgrade since it is still so notable on the imagery.


NMFC Norfolk Tropical Feed
NO Active Tropical Warnings in the Atlantic, Caribbean, or Gulf of Mexico
By Maritime.CDO@navy.mil (NMFC CDO) from Naval Maritime Forecast Center Norfolk Virginia. Published on .

As of WED 04 Aug 2010

2010 Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
92L.INVEST
04L.COLIN
East Pacific
97E.INVEST
99E.INVEST
Central Pacific
NONE
West Pacific
97W.INVEST
96W.INVEST
Indian Ocean
90B.INVEST
Southern Hemisphere
NONE
Quoting RitaEvac:
Hey there Danielle


hellooooooo...
3026. Drakoen
AL, 92, 2010080412, , BEST, 0, 142N, 725W, 25, 1009, DB
Good Morning,

Can some of you more experienced weather watchers please tell me if this is a low pressure center forming directly South of Western Cuba?

Readily seen on the latest water vapor imagery
Quoting JeffMasters:


I'm waiting for the 10am EDT release of the CSU forecast.

Jeff Masters


I woulda hit snooze until 9:55 if I were you in that case....
3031. breald
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Looks like we'll get a recon today too into ex-Colin.


Why would they down grade it yesterday and fly into it today? Is it organizing again that quickly?
3032. Drakoen
MIMIC-TPW shows ex-Colin's spin is increasing:

3033. intampa
good morning.. been following this blog for years. my first post. i have seen the occasional post indicating some people think the season is a bust already based on the storms we have seen so far. unfortunatly many people here in tampa bay feel the same way. all my friends and co-workers are saying the same thing. everyone feels its a hype for insurance companies etc. lets hope there right because many of them, when they here mention of a storm, roll there eyes and comment that its just weather hype. hopefully nothing sneaks up on us this year because im afraid many people in may area may be caught off guard.
3034. WxLogic
Given the current location of the low level VORT:



and the current steering at 700MB to 850mb:



I would lean towards a W to WNW (at times) track of the remnants. Since current shear is not favorable I will doubt that a decent development of ex-Colin would materialize too quick, but should get better in 2 days or so.

I've also noticed a low level circulation which I've highlighted:



This circulation is moving almost due West while the bulk of the 850MB energy is lagging behind it and being enhanced by the ULL to its NW. In my opinion this is expected under an environment of increased shear due to 92L to its SW and the ULL to its NW.

I would expect further models changes as to the location of TC genesis (to be further west) as they get the shear iron out.
Quoting Hardcoreweather2010:


ROLL TIDE --- Hope the LBAR is wrong
3037. 7544
Quoting Drakoen:
Ex-Colin 11:45UTC

SAB: 1.5
TAFB: 2.0


is that a ts numbers
3039. Drakoen
WxLogic, Colin is at 17.8N 59.5W
3040. Drakoen
Quoting 7544:


is that a ts numbers


Enough for a TD if there is a closed circulation.
East Pacific Storm Advisories ivest 99
Ah, you're right. It is trending pretty close to their Trop Pts. now that I got it to load. Will be interesting to watch.
3043. 7544
thanks drake
3044. Drakoen
You can see the circulation easily on this microwave imagery:

3045. aquak9
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


ROLL TIDE --- Hope the LBAR is wrong


LBAR- laughter, beer, and ribs
3046. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
WxLogic, Colin is at 17.8N 59.5W


Yeap... but it was interesting to notice a low level swirl with associated convection ahead of the main energy.
Quoting Drakoen:
WxLogic, Colin is at 17.8N 59.5W


At those coordinates, it's almost due SE from here(35N 77W). South of Southeast from Hatteras.
3049. WxLogic
Quoting Drakoen:
You can see the circulation easily on this microwave imagery:



Still intact...
Quoting aquak9:


LBAR- laughter, beer, and ribs


I'll drink to that
3051. FLdewey
Quoting JeffMasters:


I'm waiting for the 10am EDT release of the CSU forecast.

Jeff Masters


LOL - no I meant DestinJeff was sleeping in. He usually provides the hurricanes my month graphic when people start saying the season is over. ;-)
Quoting ho77yw00d:


hellooooooo...


Is that your real name, or are you saying hi to 92L?
3053. amd
Quoting TampaBayStevo:
Good Morning,

Can some of you more experienced weather watchers please tell me if this is a low pressure center forming directly South of Western Cuba?

Readily seen on the latest water vapor imagery


It's a weak Upper Level Low. If it doesn't move, it will effect the potential for 92L to further organize.
When is Jeff Masters going to go on vacation again so we will know when we will really have something to watch ?
Where did everyone go?
3057. 7544
starting to get convection around the spin colins making a good am come back may see it back to a td soon as it moves further west .

should we see a left shift on the models next run too
RL Colin looking healthier than at this time yesterday, while 92L seem awful chipper:



Source
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
New invest in the East Pacific


EP 99 2010080412 BEST 0 95N 945W 20 0 DB
Was expecting this one. It's the Twave that was in the GOM yesterday.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Is that your real name, or are you saying hi to 92L?


my real name!!!
futur invest on the 30-35W
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Where did everyone go?


Still Here?

Whats up?
StormW,

I see from this steering map:


that there is still a huge weakness to the NW of ex-Colin, but he still seems caught in the western movement patten. Even at below tropical storm strength, do you think the models will confirm with the north turn?

Quoting StormW:
img src="Photobucket
000
NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 02 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRRESSION FOUR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0104A CYCLONE
C. 04/1000Z
D. 18.4N 57.4W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIXES AT 05/0000Z
AND 05/0600Z. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
-------------------

000
NOUS42 KNHC 031430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT TUE 03 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 04/1100Z TO 05/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-065

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL STORM COLIN
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 05/0000, 0600Z
B. AFXXX 0204A COLIN
C. 04/2230Z
D. 18.3N 60.4W
E. 04/2230Z TO 05/0600Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES
AT 05/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP
Deep convection firing off again in 92L.
Quoting amd:


It's a weak Upper Level Low. If it doesn't move, it will effect the potential for 92L to further organize.


Thank you amd.
3067. aquak9
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
Where did everyone go?


you keeel'd us.
Quoting ho77yw00d:


my real name!!!


Nice, if Danielle is a wicked storm, you might regret it, I know a girl named Katrina and people relate to the storm when they meet her. By the way, she is just as wicked as Katrina was. LOL
Quoting breald:


Why would they down grade it yesterday and fly into it today? Is it organizing again that quickly?
1) It was no longer a closed low; they pretty much had to downgrade it. 2) They do see some potential to regenerate, and since that potential puts x-Colin in a much better position to impact land, especially the CONUS, they see the viability of checking it out.

BTW, any plans on the board to fly 92L today?
Today is CSU'S updated outlook i think its probable they will drop there numbers a bit. Old colin appears to have a flared up a bit last night but it wont matter now as a mid-level low could drop southeast in the bahamas later tonight/tommorow morning and will help to induce southerly flow and recurve this bug pretty quickly.
Quoting amd:


It's a weak Upper Level Low. If it doesn't move, it will effect the potential for 92L to further organize.


Don't think so, very little shear over 92L right now and a anti-cyclone over it giving it ventilation.


Quoting sammywammybamy:


Still Here?

Whats up?


Just that the posts seemed to had stopped. Thought there was a new blog
3073. GetReal


IMHO, given the current conditions, more attention should be given to the developing system in the central Caribbean, and less attention paid to the struggling remnants of Colin.... At least for the next 72 hours....
Look at that Ocean Heat Content between hours 18-60




* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES DATA AVAILABLE *
* OHC DATA AVAILABLE *
* INVEST AL922010 08/04/10 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 52 59 64 68 72 75 75
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 36 44 52 59 64 41 40 43 43
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 32 37 44 52 62 41 42 51 61

SHEAR (KT) 4 7 7 8 5 5 6 5 6 3 10 5 8
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -3 -2 -4 0 -4 -2 -3 2 -4 0 2
SHEAR DIR 277 251 191 199 260 262 288 257 330 280 310 270 304
SST (C) 28.9 29.0 29.2 29.2 29.3 29.3 29.2 29.5 29.0 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0
POT. INT. (KT) 152 153 157 156 158 158 155 161 152 147 149 152 152
ADJ. POT. INT. 154 154 158 157 156 155 149 153 145 138 140 141 139
200 MB T (C) -52.6 -51.9 -51.8 -52.0 -52.0 -51.4 -51.6 -51.1 -51.5 -50.9 -51.2 -50.7 -51.2
TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 11 10 12 10 12 10 12 9 14 11
700-500 MB RH 66 66 62 64 66 64 65 68 65 66 64 61 59
GFS VTEX (KT) 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3
850 MB ENV VOR 70 74 69 54 38 33 15 17 5 8 0 -12 -14
200 MB DIV 18 40 29 16 10 20 -2 20 8 16 4 12 8
LAND (KM) 207 333 325 256 213 265 273 290 60 -134 107 345 218
LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.6 15.0 15.5 15.9 16.9 17.8 18.5 19.2 20.0 20.8 21.9 22.9
LONG(DEG W) 72.5 73.9 75.3 76.7 78.0 80.4 82.7 84.7 86.9 89.2 91.4 93.5 95.6
STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 14 14 13 13 11 11 11 11 11 11 10
HEAT CONTENT 61 68 85 100 109 81 96 106 74 23 3 49 44

FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 601 (MEAN=624)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 20.1 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 31. 35. 37. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 15. 15. 15. 15.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 19. 27. 34. 39. 43. 47. 50. 50.

** 2010 ATLANTIC RI INDEX AL922010 INVEST 08/04/10 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.1 Range: 26.2 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-21.0 to 140.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 130.8 Range: 33.5 to 126.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.6 Range: 56.0 to 85.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 69.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.1 Range: 30.6 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.6
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 84.6 Range: 0.0 to 130.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 36% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12.6%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 17% is 2.1 times the sample mean( 8.1%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 12% is 2.5 times the sample mean( 4.8%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 7% is 2.2 times the sample mean( 3.4%)

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL922010 INVEST 08/04/10 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY

** PROBLTY OF AT LEAST 1 SCNDRY EYEWL FORMTN EVENT AL922010 INVEST 08/04/2010 12 UTC **
TIME(HR) 0-12 12-24(0-24) 24-36(0-36) 36-48(0-48)
CLIMO(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- PROB BASED ON INTENSITY ONLY
PROB(%) 0 0( 0) 0( 0) 0( 0) <-- FULL MODEL PROB (RAN NORMALLY)



Quoting aquak9:


you keeel'd us.


LMAO
Quoting FLdewey:


LOL - no I meant DestinJeff was sleeping in. He usually provides the hurricanes my month graphic when people start saying the season is over. ;-)
I think the good Dr took it as you were saying he was sleeping in, instead of showing up for work
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


Nice, if Danielle is a wicked storm, you might regret it, I know a girl named Katrina and people relate to the storm when they meet her. By the way, she is just as wicked as Katrina was. LOL



Oh no I dont want a wicked storm in my name I am too nice of a person to have a storm like "K" with my name on it.. A wicked fish storm cool but not a destructive one :-/
3079. aquak9
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2.

northern eyewall, please explain?
Storm....You still on??
Quoting ho77yw00d:



Oh no I dont want a wicked storm in my name I am too nice of a person to have a storm like "K" with my name on it.. A wicked fish storm cool but not a destructive one :-/


You wouldn't be the first blogger on here to have a deadly hurricane with their name on it. Ike for example.
Quoting ho77yw00d:



Oh no I dont want a wicked storm in my name I am too nice of a person to have a storm like "K" with my name on it.. A wicked fish storm cool but not a destructive one :-/


That remains to be seen! J/K
3083. BoynSea
Is anyone else, running JAVA, having troubles with this website:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

or is it just me?

Thanks.
Quoting GetReal:


IMHO, given the current conditions, more attention should be given to the developing system in the central Caribbean, and less attention paid to the struggling remnants of Colin.... At least for the next 72 hours....


Enviroment looks great no doupt BUT i cant see this going anywere but straight westward into central america.
Quoting BoynSea:
Is anyone else, running JAVA, having troubles with this website:
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html

or is it just me?

Thanks.


If that's the noaa water vapor loop, it has crashed my browser twice in the past few minutes.
Quoting aquak9:
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. 0. 1. 2.

northern eyewall, please explain?


Meant just Heat Content

HEAT CONTENT 61 68 85 100 109 81 96 106 74 23 3 49 44


The numbers in your post are the contribution to intensity change.

Quoting intampa:
good morning.. been following this blog for years. my first post. i have seen the occasional post indicating some people think the season is a bust already based on the storms we have seen so far. unfortunatly many people here in tampa bay feel the same way. all my friends and co-workers are saying the same thing. everyone feels its a hype for insurance companies etc. lets hope there right because many of them, when they here mention of a storm, roll there eyes and comment that its just weather hype. hopefully nothing sneaks up on us this year because im afraid many people in may area may be caught off guard.
Welcome to the board.... I know Tampa, like the GA / JAX coastline, is overdue for a hit. Unfortunately, pple will remember the experience of Charlie, and more recently Fay, and not do much until it's much too late. I sure wouldn't want to be in the downtown area of Tampa if the "big one" comes ur way... and it only takes 1, even if the rest of the season is a bust.... hope u guys get lucky again this year.
3089. amd
Quoting GetReal:


IMHO, given the current conditions, more attention should be given to the developing system in the central Caribbean, and less attention paid to the struggling remnants of Colin.... At least for the next 72 hours....


first time that the convection associated with 92L is co-located with the area of maximum vorticity, and not being created by TUTT influence.

If that weak ULL in the Caribbean gets out of the way, 92L could be something to watch.

Edit: This all assumes that the BAM models are correct, and this heads toward the Yucatan instead of central america.
Storm...any timetable on when 92L may be approaching the Yucatan or that vacinity...going on a cruise this sat.??
3091. Drakoen
That is some crazy OHC Nrt. The latest cimss update shows that an upper level high is just west of 92L and some lower level convergence is occurring there as well.
Quoting hurricane23:


Enviroment looks great no doupt BUT i cant see this going anywere but straight westward into central america.


I'd say the Yucatan personally. It has good time and its not trucking west like Colin.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You wouldn't be the first blogger on here to have a deadly hurricane with their name on it. Ike for example.


Yes I know but still I would feel awful just for a storm stealing my name then doing damage to peoples lives just rubs me wrong lol

Quoting PanhandleChuck:


That remains to be seen! J/K


HAHA DONT SAY THAT lol
3094. BoynSea
3086. dsenecal2009 1:41 PM GMT on August 04, 2010

Yes, it is the WV page.
Thanks.

I thought that I was going to have to go digging around in the Dell.

Quoting FLdewey:


LOL - no I meant DestinJeff was sleeping in. He usually provides the hurricanes my month graphic when people start saying the season is over. ;-)


3096. fishcop
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I'll drink to that

Here here
Drak....#3090...and what does #3091 mean in kidergarten terms?? lol
Quoting sammywammybamy:





Hey, that bottom one is going right over my house! What's up with that? Everybody has Colin-escopy and not checking out good ol' AOI "other"

Well, I guess everyone from here lives up there. And Intampa guy: Tampa has skated for years and just got brushed with all the 00 storms and got missed entirely by most of 'em. I know because when I lived in SWFL that is where we would go to miss getting clobbered. I don't know if this is Tampa's year to get whacked, but odds are odds and you can only live in FL so long before you get hit. Ft Myers didn't get much since Donna (1960?) Then Charley came and knocked their socks off.
I worked with the local EM and their biggest concern was always apathy. Of course for the first few years after Charley, it was easy. But then, when nothing happened for awhile, most got complacent again, and it will be the same again this time.
If something big hits here in Cancun, I don't know, but most of the people are not weather conscious here, it is what it is. The average Joe (or Jose) doesn't really make enough to stockpile anything ahead, but the people here are generous and willing to share, it mitigates many of the problems with supply and demand. Generators? Who needs 'em? They don't use electricity that much anyway, and as long as there is fish in the Sea, they will eat.
Preparedness here is getting off the beach and going home. When you live like other people camp, then camping is not a big deal. I can't say as much for the out-of-town visitors from Russia and France at the luxury resorts here down the road, or any other hapless visitor. I don't know if they have an evacuation plan, they can't get out of Cancun city on a normal day in less than 2 hours.
It will be interesting to see.
3099. FLdewey
Annnd I don't eat meat because I'm a vet tranarian... tee hee.
3100. Patrap
WLO Colin throwing up some nice convection around the CoC:

Quoting BahaHurican:
Welcome to the board.... I know Tampa, like the GA / JAX coastline, is overdue for a hit. Unfortunately, pple will remember the experience of Charlie, and more recently Fay, and not do much until it's much too late. I sure wouldn't want to be in the downtown area of Tampa if the "big one" comes ur way... and it only takes 1, even if the rest of the season is a bust.... hope u guys get lucky again this year.


Dont Forget Miami and Ft.Laturdale and West Palm Beach (South East Florida)

Miami got Spared with andrew.

What happens if a storm makes a direct landfall?

5.4 millon people..
3104. breald
Quoting StormW:
12Z STATISTICAL MODELS


12Z DYNAMIC MODELS


What is the difference between Statistical and Dynamis models?
Quoting Drakoen:
That is some crazy OHC Nrt. The latest cimss update shows that an upper level high is just west of 92L and some lower level convergence is occurring there as well.


The upper air pattern i see takes this wave on a westerly course not gaining much of any latitude with significant ridging to its north.
Quoting GetReal:


IMHO, given the current conditions, more attention should be given to the developing system in the central Caribbean, and less attention paid to the struggling remnants of Colin.... At least for the next 72 hours....
Equal attention ok w/ u? I think both should be watched, as each has about the same potential right now and will likely affect different parts of the basin.
3109. Patrap



Quoting sammywammybamy:


Still Here?

Whats up?
Thought you were forsaking WUnderground, or do I have you confused with someone else? Lol
Thx Storm!!
Quoting hurricane23:


The upper air pattern i see takes this wave on a westerly course not gaining much of any latitude with significant ridging to its north.


I see a W-WNW track at 10-15 mph into the Yucatan personally, a similar pattern to a lot of systems this year being forced west by that ridge.
3114. Patrap
92L RGB still image




GFS seems to develope another tc across the central atl during the next 3-5 days but it could meet the same fate as colin.
Storm...have you done your synopsis this morning...I want your thoughts on 92L?
3118. Patrap


Texas Hurricane Alex

Declared August 3, 2010




» En Español
News
Map of Declared Counties for Disaster 1931

* Federal Aid Programs For State Of Texas Disaster Recovery, Aug 3 New
* President Declares Major Disaster For Texas, Aug 3 New

* More News for This Declaration
* Designated Counties
* Disaster Federal Register Notices
* Individual Assistance FOIA
* Recent FEMA Press Releases

CHSV3 O 1306 17.75 -64.70 203 292 60 2.9 8.0 - - - - - - 85.6 84.9 - - - - - - - - - - ---- ----- - - - - - - -
CHSV3 O 1300 17.75 -64.70 203 292 60 5.1 7.0
Quoting StormW:


???


Ridging over Texas and the Plains.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Dont Forget Miami and Ft.Laturdale and West Palm Beach (South East Florida)

Miami got Spared with andrew.

What happens if a storm makes a direct landfall?

5.4 millon people..
Nassau is in the same boat. We haven't had a direct hit since that storm in 1966, and that was only cat 1 at the time... last Major was Donna, IIRC... that's why when I saw the way the year was shaping up, both in terms of potential and synoptic pattern, I started to get a bit wheezy....
3123. breald
Quoting StormW:


FORECAST MODEL SUMMARY


Thanks again
Quoting StormW:


???


I think he is talking about 92L. I have a quick question. I don't have the best skills at looking at satellite imagery but it still seems based on sat that ex-colin doesn't have a closed circulation because i don't see much westward movement in low level clouds.

Is it possible that the convection is just being enhanced by the TUTT not that colin is redeveloping?

please correct me if I am wrong
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Thought you were forsaking WUnderground, or do I have you confused with someone else? Lol


Ive Been here for 5 Years.. Why quit Now?

Anyway im betting that collin will regenerate.
3127. Patrap
Atlantic Tropical Weather Outlook

000
ABNT20 KNHC 041157
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT WED AUG 4 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM
COLIN...LOCATED ABOUT 150 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF THE LEEWARD
ISLANDS...HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED THIS MORNING.
HOWEVER...ANY ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED TO BE SLOW TO DUE
TO UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS. THERE IS A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE AGAIN DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 20 TO 25 MPH.
REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND STRONG GUSTY
WINDS ARE POSSIBLE OVER PORTIONS OF THE LEEWARD AND VIRGIN ISLANDS
ISLANDS TODAY AND TONIGHT. AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER
AIRCRAFT IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THIS SYSTEM LATER TODAY.

CLOUDINESS...SHOWERS...AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE CENTRAL AND
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ARE ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS DISTURBANCE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE NEXT
FEW DAYS AS IT MOVES GENERALLY WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 MPH. THERE IS
A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Quoting BahaHurican:
Nassau is in the same boat. We haven't had a direct hit since that storm in 1966, and that was only cat 1 at the time... last Major was Donna, IIRC... that's why when I saw the way the year was shaping up, both in terms of potential and synoptic pattern, I started to get a bit wheezy....

Puerto Rico hasn't had a hurricane since 1998 either...
So far this year, nothing but short lived storms. Alex was the longest but even that wasn't that long of a track at all
Quoting BahaHurican:
Nassau is in the same boat. We haven't had a direct hit since that storm in 1966, and that was only cat 1 at the time... last Major was Donna, IIRC... that's why when I saw the way the year was shaping up, both in terms of potential and synoptic pattern, I started to get a bit wheezy....


Baha,

Are the Bahamas and South Florida at a Higher Risk this year?

It Appears So.

Maybe another system will follow Bonnie's path, but stronger and maybe more north.

However, the highest risk for an east hit for us will be from Mid-August to Mid-September.

A west Hit (Wilma Senerio) in october might also be possible.
3133. Squid28
I have a question about the recon flights...

How do you differentiate between a G-IV flight and a regular HH mission? Aren't they all deignated as a TealXX ?
Quoting PRweathercenter:

Puerto Rico hasn't had a hurricane since 1998 either...
U see? And these are the 1s that blow up and hit FL after having wiped out u guys....

I better go Carpe Diem while the Carpeing's good.... plus I might move from wheezy to queasy, in which case aqua might have to find yet ANOTHER barf bag.... lol

Later, all.
Quoting StormW:


Drak posted a microwave imagery of ex-Colin a little bit ago...it appeared as if it were getting some semblance of one.


http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/marti/2010_04L/webManager/displayGifsBy12hr_04.html

don't see much here
Quoting intampa:
good morning.. been following this blog for years. my first post. i have seen the occasional post indicating some people think the season is a bust already based on the storms we have seen so far. unfortunatly many people here in tampa bay feel the same way. all my friends and co-workers are saying the same thing. everyone feels its a hype for insurance companies etc. lets hope there right because many of them, when they here mention of a storm, roll there eyes and comment that its just weather hype. hopefully nothing sneaks up on us this year because im afraid many people in may area may be caught off guard.


Ahhh, Tampa. The Valhalla of potential insurance claims.
Good morning all. I see the wave off Africa is looking alright, and so is ex-Colin and 92L.
Here's JB this morn.

WEDNESDAY 7 AM
CLASSIC DISTORTION IF ONE DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THE SITE:

http://www.lvrj.com/news/las-vegans-swelter-through-month-of-record-heat-998105 49.html

The claim it was the hottest month every in Las Vegas has to be looked at with a bit more scrutiny. The Las Vegas records go back to the time of Elvis, when the airport was out in the desert relatively speaking and it could get much cooler at night! Ever been to Las Vegas. The airport is in an almost urban setting now, not conducive to the kind of desert cool that can show up at night. This can be readily seen in the fact that NIGHTS AVERAGED AROUND 9.5 ABOVE NORMAL! DAYS WERE ONLY 2.9 ABOVE NORMAL! You do the math as to what is going on here.

The July records go back to the 1930s. Until Moe Green and the Corleones got out there after ww2, Las Vegas had almost nothing ( see the Godfather please..all three versions, one after another.. as it should be viewed) But the fact is that the journalist doing the article, in typical journalist style today, refuses to go beyond what actually happened. Given the cool of the desert back then, this month may have just been a couple above normal, comparable to what the highs were in relation to normal, which were urban heat islanded to some degree anyway, but not like what happens at night.

This is the tip of the iceberg with a data gathering problem that is being exploited by those wishing to shove an agenda down the throat of the American people. Case in point.. July will be the hottest month ever occurring to that bunch, expect that to come out. Yet the satellite data shows it behind 1998, and the drop that is starting will assure us this peak did not reach the peak of the last Nino.

Distortion and hiding of the facts, pure and simple.

Now to other things.

Colin is reforming and I think this will become a hurricane sometime in its life. However, the wave that was out in front yesterday has slowed considerable and is punching a hole in the ridge. While there is still a chance it can get back further west, its intensification now will mean it starts looking for the way out. The modeling is seeing that and while I am not yet ready to say, thats it, I see how this happens now.

That doesnt mean there are not problems early next week near the mid atlantic coast or the Carolinas, since the front left in there has a shot, Colin entrained or not, to cause problems. Its just that even though Colin is well south of the forecasted ideas from a couple of days ago

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/vis-l.jpg

( it looks to be getting ready to cross 60 west at 18 north, not near 20.5 north, a 150 mile difference) in the end, it may not get as far west. Good thing,. Look for the Storm hatchers to up their level of concern today.. I do believe this will come back.

The system in the Caribbean is also getting better organized but the models are pretty far south with this. Still I want to see where its low to mid level vort center is before I commit to central America

The front that is coming down may not only be a problem for the Carolinas but also for the northern gulf. The Euro has an Eduaord look too it (2008) in the longer term.

And the system I think that will be named, whether anything comes out of the other areas, will come out of the large area of clouds southwest of the Cape Verdes. That should be classified by the weekend.

in 2005 I turned down and offer for 3 days on Bermuda in Sep because I knew the hurricane season was going to be wild ( the offer was made before June) and I did not want to be away when storms were around. The weekend I was supposed to go out there was the weekend of Rita.

I did not go to the Bahamas this year because I thought our trip could get messed up by the tropics. While much of the week we would have been down there was okay, we would not have been able to fly in the day we were scheduled, since Bonnie was closing airports.

Last night, when our family decided on our Texas jaunt, I decided that this year it would be without me because I anticipate the period they are going to be active ( AUG 20-28) I told them you go down there and have a nice time, but made them get cancellation insurance. Its not that I think Texas has to get hit during that time, but I think there will be plenty to talk about and being away from the front lines is torture for me when storms are going on. I was down there in 1995 when Felix was being touted as going into Va beach, and I was miserable. I remember calling Bob Larsen on Friday night and saying that once it stalled, it was over, it would never go in in spite of the models trying to bring it in. But what could I do from there? Even with Bonnie, getting on national TV to DEHYPE the gulf threat meant I did my job. So I will be here, they will be there.. Garrett golfing with his cousins ( one of his Uncles is hooked in with Augusta Pines) my wife sees her sisters, Jessie hangs with her cousins and I put my money where my mouth is as far as my job.

I want to dispell the rumor I simply want to avoid my sister in laws. If I am down there, I am always visiting clients anyway, but there is no truth to the avoid my sister in laws at all costs.

Ahem

Its all about the weather.

Notes and asides.

My mixmaster theory wont get tested in the gulf as mother nature and bathtub technology is getting rid of the oil. Thats right, its diluting and disappearing and the reason is because the dispersant is glorified soap, causes the oil, which in spite of the lousy reputation it has, is a naturally occuring substance, to emulsify and by doing so allows natural processes to attack. In addition the warmth of the gulf is helping it. When you do your laundry, the hotter the water, the less soap you have to do. Well near 90 degree water works alot better on Light Sweet oil, which is what much of this was, than 40 degrees on heavy crude. This is not downplaying what happened, its just that anyone trying to use this for their own agenda ( I detected both sides using it.. one side to blame the administration, the administration to try to trump up the environmental agenda, so there, fair and balanced..both sides get mad at me) is seeing nature an man thwart them. One has to wonder, if those big skimmers had been allowed to get there faster, if this really would have been in better shape quicker.

No its not over, and this is not saying this is bad. It is injecting a bit of reality into it. The hype on this was amazing. The gulf would warm so hurricanes would be stronger. The loop current would catch it and close east coast beaches. Bonnie was going in there and would cause big problems. I even had people email me and getting nasty with me because I would not agree with them that black rain would be killing livestock into the Ohio valley this year. Simply amazing.

Where is the oil? Its getting diluted. I suppose we will never get a chance to test my "mixmaster theory" but I feel given it didnt even take that, it would have worked.

In the end, no matter how we try to mess up nature, or try to change her, she wins. The next vivid example of that will be the drop in temps coming by early next year and then the longer drop over the coming decades.


As for those that think that the oil is on the bottom, I guess you are of the "Day after tomorrow" theory that natural laws can be changed ( remember the bringing down of cold air from the stratosphere.. even though it warms up 5 degrees per thousand feet, they somehow decided you can do that and of course the nuts out there bought it. The cooling you get with a thunderstorm is from air rushing down from near the freezing levels which are up at 13,000 feet. The wet adiabat ( the air is saturated with the rain shaft) has it at 3f per thousand feet. Air starting at freezing rushing down quickly, saturated warming that much would make it in the low 70s when it got to earth..which is just about right when you think about what goes on with thunderstorms.. You cant get air at -40 from 50k and take it down to earth and still have it at -40 when it gets to the surface).

And oil floats on water, unless it is no longer oil, but is becoming a broken down version that is being diluted and destroyed by nature and yes, a little help from its friend, man.

Nature will always win, and those of us that know that simply grin.

ciao for now ****
3140. FLdewey
We need to charge by the column inch. :-p
As to the pending numbers update from CSU, with La Nina conditions (see below) I would not expect a substantial drop in the numbers. Actually, if you look at all the "potential" out there at the moment, including Colin, it has been a pretty active late-July to early August........This activity will probably increase in the coming weeks:

La Niña continues to develop in the Pacific
Issued on Wednesday 4 August 2010 | Product Code IDCKGEWWOO

All indicators in the Pacific Ocean show that we are now in the early stages of a La Niña event. Computer models predict the central Pacific will continue to cool in coming months, indicating some further strengthening of the event is likely.

Signs of an emerging La Niña event have been apparent in the equatorial Pacific for several months. Pacific Ocean temperatures have cooled steadily throughout the year, the Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) has increased in value and is currently around +21, trade winds continue to be stronger than average and cloudiness has remained suppressed over the central Pacific. All of these key indicators have now reached or exceed La Niña levels.

La Niña periods are usually, but not always, associated with above normal rainfall during the second half of the year across large parts of Australia, most notably eastern and northern regions. Night time temperatures are typically warmer than average and Tropical Cyclone risk for northern Australia increases during the cyclone season (November-April).

Next update expected by 18 August 2010 | print version
3142. will45
Quoting Squid28:
I have a question about the recon flights...

How do you differentiate between a G-IV flight and a regular HH mission? Aren't they all deignated as a TealXX ?


by the height listed in the mission . HH is surface to 15000 and noaa is upper level
3143. Squid28
Quoting NOSinger:
Storm...any timetable on when 92L may be approaching the Yucatan or that vacinity...going on a cruise this sat.??


Some of the local media outlets (Houston) love to go down to the cruise terminal in Galveston and show all the passengers disembarking from the cruise ship when a storm is blowing in the gulf. They like to show the now green passengers and the comments about a rolling ship, and only getting to see New Orleans and Florida or something like that instead of Cancun for the week.

It is a lot like the old "so what did the tornado sound like?" type report.....

I really hope your trip turns out better than those have....

Also, all the people that left cars in Galveston when the cruise lines set sail before Ike roared ashore, lost their vehicles to the surge. Most of the passengers were let off in New Orleans, and had to figure out how to get home themselves. They also were not told about their cars for the most part, they figured that one out when they went to pick them up...


Link
Quoting StormW:


COLIN REMNANT LOW / INVEST 92L SYNOPSIS AUG. 04, 2010 ISSUED 8:20 A.M.


Thanks Storm.. I like the line that tracks it inot the central gulf.. Need some rain bad!!!!!
Quoting Squid28:
I have a question about the recon flights...

How do you differentiate between a G-IV flight and a regular HH mission? Aren't they all deignated as a TealXX ?


TealXX are Air Force C130

NOAA 49 is Gulfstream IV

NOAA 42/43 are P3
.
Models seem to be really hittin on a hard right turn for ex-Colin. With ex-him being weakened, why is the trough pulling him so hard? I assume that's what's supposed to make him do that.....
Link
CSU update
So Dr. Gray says: "We have maintained our forecast from early June and continue to call for a very active Atlantic basin hurricane season in 2010 due to unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of La Nina. We anticipate a well above-average probability of United States and Caribbean major hurricane landfall."

He now says 18/10/5. That is, no change since his June forecast.

PDF here
Storm if that's the case, then storms are gonna pop up outta nowhere coming soon, or storms into December
When does Recon. take off for ex-Colin?

Does recon. have any flights scheduled into 92L?
3155. Drakoen
There was no reason for the CSU team to change their forecast. It remains the same as I expected.
3157. will45
Quoting AllStar17:
When does Recon. take off for ex-Colin?

Does recon. have any flights scheduled into 92L?



000
NOUS42 KNHC 021430
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1030 AM EDT MON 02 AUGUST 2010
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 03/1100Z TO 04/1100Z AUGUST 2010
TCPOD NUMBER.....10-064

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. TROPICAL DEPRRESSION FOUR
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 70
A. 04/1200,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0104A CYCLONE
C. 04/1000Z
D. 18.4N 57.4W
E. 04/1130Z TO 04/1800Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT

2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: FIXES AT 05/0000Z
AND 05/0600Z. BEGIN 12-HRLY FIXES AT 05/1800Z.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK.....NEGATIVE.
JWP


Quick Navigation Link
Dr. Gray didn't lower his predictions lol. 18 storms still.
3159. Patrap
The numbers dont mean squat as they cant say when, nor where.

Its more ego posturing than anything.

If they spent 10% of what they do on the numbers across the board,to Preparedness and education,we would have a much better aware Public.


So the numbers to me..are MOOT as where a storms been,,as to where itsa going.
3161. Patrap
Fascinating..

3162. SLU
I agree with CSU's "updated" forecast 1000000%
For Texas, I always use Rita's date as the last major hurricane that can affect us. Texas has seen hurricanes in October but not majors. So once we get past late September I breathe a sigh of relief.
Quoting Patrap:
The numbers dont mean squat as they cant say when, nor where.

Its more ego posturing than anything.

If they spent 10% of what they do on the numbers across the board,to Preparedness and education,we would have a much better aware Public.


So the numbers to me..are MOOT as where a storms been,,as to where itsa going.


Well said Pat
Quoting StormW:


Yeah...well I expect an above average October this season.


Storm W,

In Your Honest Opinon looing at the Steering and the A/B high, Do you Belive South Florida and the Bahamas are at Risk?

Thanks In Advance
For Floridians, Andrew in an El Nino year, in late August, shattered any perceptions about the actual numbers and timing.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Here's JB this morn.

WEDNESDAY 7 AM
CLASSIC DISTORTION IF ONE DOES NOT UNDERSTAND THE SITE:

http://www.lvrj.com/news/las-vegans-swelter-through-month-of-record-heat-998105 49.html

The claim it was the hottest month every in Las Vegas has to be looked at with a bit more scrutiny. The Las Vegas records go back to the time of Elvis, when the airport was out in the desert relatively speaking and it could get much cooler at night! Ever been to Las Vegas. The airport is in an almost urban setting now, not conducive to the kind of desert cool that can show up at night. This can be readily seen in the fact that NIGHTS AVERAGED AROUND 9.5 ABOVE NORMAL! DAYS WERE ONLY 2.9 ABOVE NORMAL! You do the math as to what is going on here.

The July records go back to the 1930s. Until Moe Green and the Corleones got out there after ww2, Las Vegas had almost nothing ( see the Godfather please..all three versions, one after another.. as it should be viewed) But the fact is that the journalist doing the article, in typical journalist style today, refuses to go beyond what actually happened. Given the cool of the desert back then, this month may have just been a couple above normal, comparable to what the highs were in relation to normal, which were urban heat islanded to some degree anyway, but not like what happens at night.

This is the tip of the iceberg with a data gathering problem that is being exploited by those wishing to shove an agenda down the throat of the American people. Case in point.. July will be the hottest month ever occurring to that bunch, expect that to come out. Yet the satellite data shows it behind 1998, and the drop that is starting will assure us this peak did not reach the peak of the last Nino.

Distortion and hiding of the facts, pure and simple.


It's obvious JB likes to hear his own voice, but still, isn't it about time that someone explain to that chest-beating fool that simply spouting rhetoric without offering a single shred of proof is just silly? (And I'd like him, for starters, to say just what he means by "shoving an agenda down the throat of the American people". Is that kinda like when your doctor "shoves his agenda down your throat" when he breaks the news that you have heart disease and need to stop eating junk food and smoking cigarettes now? Darn those "agenda driven" people!)
Morning all.

I'd say that we just need to keep the tropics in the back of our heads for the time being. I don't foresee anything major within the next day or so. There could some regeneration of Colin or development of 92L in a few days, but not soon. I'll keep one eye on these, and the other on the heat that is hitting the Northeast yet again.
Quoting sammywammybamy:


Are you for Real???

Are you Mad?

Look at the Temps in the gulf! Do you want another Katrina?

You Need to be Run over with a truck!!


Quite amusing!
3172. unf97
Good morning everyone!
Quoting StormW:


Yep...Phil sent me that email saying they wouldn't change.


Dr. Phil or Phil Simms?
Quoting StormW:
CSU Still calling for 18?

Storm I do not think he included Colin since Colin happened in August so 15 storms ahead it seems based on his numbers.
Quoting StormW:


However, the numbers do have a tendency to get some folks attention, as to maybe we should wake up.


It's more for insurance agents, so they can jack up rates and drop people in prone areas
Quoting Patrap:
The numbers dont mean squat as they cant say when, nor where.

Its more ego posturing than anything.

If they spent 10% of what they do on the numbers across the board,to Preparedness and education,we would have a much better aware Public.


So the numbers to me..are MOOT as where a storms been,,as to where itsa going.


well said Pat..prep is nearly everything.. and goos morning sir!

you too Senior Chief.
Quoting StormW:


For when?



Mid August - Mid September

3181. Patrap

Yeah,.."wake up" could b the words of the day.
3183. Patrap



Morn irg..
3185. Patrap
Distortion and hiding of the facts, pure and simple.


JB..should be a FOX anchor.

LOL
Colin is a bust, check this out:

Link
3187. JLPR2
Well quick hello!
Ex-Colin:


92L:


Cape Verde TW:


I must say all three disturbances look healthy.
And now goodbye, till later. XD
invest 92L LOOKING GOOD
3189. FLdewey
Then Global Warming would be Hitler?
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
For Floridians, Andrew in an El Nino year, in late August, shattered any perceptions about the actual numbers and timing.


No one predicted that Katrina would be a CAT 1 coming across Broward County and head south through the FL Keys and turn directly north in the GOM. There are always abnormalities that's what makes it so interesting to watch. Any statements/predictions beyond 24 hours out are possible projections based on a GUESS!
Quoting StormW:


Impressive wave StormW. Good Morning!
Quoting sammywammybamy:



Mid August - Mid September



Storm W,

Mid August - Mid September
Due to the wind shear it would appear that Colin will not even qualify as an F1 hurricane on the Scott Fujita scale.
@3182 - Why must you come on here and try to start a fight? Every single day, we get incessant trolling from various people. Does it bother you that I made a statement regarding the tropics? If so, please feel free to WU mail me. Don't add to the trolling. Thanks. Me and the entire blogging community appreciates it.
3195. Squid28
Are 92L and Colin close enough to each other that one of them will steal the others "mojo" and possibly hinder development?

Thanks to those who try to answer during the "high season" for hurricane activity.


and ice still melts
Quoting nyhurricaneboy:
@3182 - Why must you come on here and try to start a fight? Every single day, we get incessant trolling from various people. Does it bother you that I made a statement regarding the tropics? If so, please fell free to WU mail me. Don't add to the trolling. Thanks. Me and the entire blogging community appreciates it.


I'm not the troll, there are only a few on here that I respect for their opinion and you're not one of them. Not trying to start a fight, just kinda humorous when people come in here and say that there is nothing to worry about. By the way where did you get your degree. Take it easy and don't get so offended. People need thicker skin.
Quoting RitaEvac:


It's more for insurance agents, so they can jack up rates and drop people in prone areas


...Like they need a "reason" to raise rates? Someone farts in the break room and that (apparently) is reason enough to cut off good paying customers because, even though their house just survived a CAT 4 hit without doing damage to file a claim, the house wasn't built to the latest 135 mph wind standards. Buh bye.

..Don't get me started.
Not surprised, CSU kept their original numbers! WAKE UP CALL, PEOPLE!!!! Ike must be confounded right about now. Anyhow, good morning to all, and Senior Chief.
Colin is looking fantastic compared to yesterday when there was almost no convection at all. Also it seems to me from the latest sat loop that it is trying to get convection completly around the COC but the dry air is giving colin a hard time to get convection on the southern side of COC.

I hope we get a new Blog soon... like to see Jeff's opinions on what is happening :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI
Hey guys you know we would of has maybe TD Colin by now if he was further south wind shear is for the most part low and the steering curent is not very strong but if RL Colin can make it into the Caribbean he is very lucky but on the other hand 92L/ex98L lol is doing just fine
Looks like the hurricane hunters may still be headed to Colin this evening/night 05/0000Z & 05/0600, then 06/1800 (if still a viable system). Possible flight to 92L 06/1500Z.
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
invest 92L LOOKING GOOD


Cat 3 by tomorrow!
NEW BLOG

I should have asked sooner :)
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I'm not the troll, there are only a few on here that I respect for their opinion and you're not one of them. Not trying to start a fight, just kinda humorous when people come in here and say that there is nothing to worry about. By the way where did you get your degree. Take it easy and don't get so offended. People need thicker skin.


Very well said
Quoting 2010StormNames:
Not surprised, CSU kept their original numbers! WAKE UP CALL, PEOPLE!!!! Ike must be confounded right about now. Anyhow, good morning to all, and Senior Chief.


Ikes probably hitting his head on the keyboard right now..... naaa, Ikes cool and straight up about things :)
Quoting StormW:


It can't be pinpointed exactly, as the ridge(s) fluctuate as we've seen.

Right now, given the positive NAO signal...this is why the trof over the eastern U.S./Western Atlantic is strong and further south. As we get into, or if we get to a more negative NAO, this would have a tendency to place, although somewhat weaker ridging over the east (U.S.), it would allow for the trof to be weaker and not as far south, and depending on exactly where, and how strong a storm develops, there can still be re-curvature, but in a more subtle manner. As La Nina gets stronger, and if we get into the neutral or negative NAO, we could see tracks a little more per Alex;Bonnie.


Thanks!
Quoting CybrTeddy:


You wouldn't be the first blogger on here to have a deadly hurricane with their name on it. Ike for example.
Ivan has always been a bit of a task. Wanted to change it when in grade school but no one would take up my middle. Proud of it now.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I'm not the troll, there are only a few on here that I respect for their opinion and you're not one of them. Not trying to start a fight, just kinda humorous when people come in here and say that there is nothing to worry about. By the way where did you get your degree. Take it easy and don't get so offended. People need thicker skin.


Chill dude. While he has no degree, like some others on here who are also good, he's actually good at what he forecasts. BTW, he said for the day, not for a week.
3213. unf97
Quoting Orcasystems:
I hope we get a new Blog soon... like to see Jeff's opinions on what is happening :)



AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

AOI

TS BUSTED FORECAST ALIBI


Dr. Masters should be posting an update at any time now.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:


I'm not the troll, there are only a few on here that I respect for their opinion and you're not one of them. Not trying to start a fight, just kinda humorous when people come in here and say that there is nothing to worry about. By the way where did you get your degree. Take it easy and don't get so offended. People need thicker skin.


You know what, whether or not you respect my opinion, it's here. Bloggers have a right to state their opinion and subject it to argument. However, they do not have to be subjected to ridicule.
Quoting WhereIsTheStorm:


No one predicted that Katrina would be a CAT 1 coming across Broward County and head south through the FL Keys and turn directly north in the GOM. There are always abnormalities that's what makes it so interesting to watch. Any statements/predictions beyond 24 hours out are possible projections based on a GUESS!


What history has shown us, as far as the tropics is concerned, is that "anything" could happen during the peak of the season, and, after the peak periods if conditions are right.....When in doubt, just pay attention to the NHC 3 and 5 day tracks during H-Season but a surprise can arise that catches everyone off guard from time to time.
Quoting Patrap:
Distortion and hiding of the facts, pure and simple.


JB..should be a FOX anchor.

LOL


Silly left winger...
Quoting Squid28:
Are 92L and Colin close enough to each other that one of them will steal the others "mojo" and possibly hinder development?

Thanks to those who try to answer during the "high season" for hurricane activity.
The two systems are way too far apart for them to influence each other in terms of development.
3218. SeaMule
Quoting Neapolitan:


It's obvious JB likes to hear his own voice, but still, isn't it about time that someone explain to that chest-beating fool that simply spouting rhetoric without offering a single shred of proof is just silly? (And I'd like him, for starters, to say just what he means by "shoving an agenda down the throat of the American people". Is that kinda like when your doctor "shoves his agenda down your throat" when he breaks the news that you have heart disease and need to stop eating junk food and smoking cigarettes now? Darn those "agenda driven" people!)



I love it when nobodies with no education slam somebody like Joe Bastardi. Their is a definite agenda and political posturing for almost every thing under the sun. People who spout global warming, and maintain that the earth is getting warmer may take that side, because it is "fashionable", or because so many others believe it. I have no scientific moxy or intellect to make a call either way. One thing I won't do is trash someone who is an elite in the field. It makes me ill when people trash one another, as though they were smarter. It's all that really is....by denigrating others, they assume we will think they are much smarter. the opposite is true. those that slam their fellow men....are the real losers. I would prefer people give their opinion, right or wrong....base it on gut feel or scientific reasoning, and we all let it go at that. Get tired of all the bickering and whining and self promoting. (by some)

Joe Bastardi gets paid well....and lot's of people and businesses listen to him. there is a reason for that...and it ain't hype..neither.
Quoting: sammywammybamy

Are you for Real???

Are you Mad?

Look at the Temps in the gulf! Do you want another Katrina?

You Need to be Run over with a truck!!

First of all, even if this disturbance were to go in the Central Gulf, the conditions are not conducive for such explosive development. Again, enough with the darn K word.
Quoting caneswatch:


Chill dude. While he has no degree, like some others on here who are also good, he's actually good at what he forecasts. BTW, he said for the day, not for a week.


Thank you.
Quoting reedzone:


Ikes probably hitting his head on the keyboard right now..... naaa, Ikes cool and straight up about things :)


I'm kind of surprised they kept with the same numbers.
New blog!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:


Silly left winger...
You make that sound so sexy.
Colorado State team sticking to June hurricane season forecast
August 4th, 2010, 11:07 am by Eliot Kleinberg

The hurricane forecasting team at Colorado State University is sticking to its June prediction of 18 named storms, 10 hurricanes and 5 major hurricanes, of Category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale. The historical 1950-2000 average is 9.6, 5.9 and 2.3.

In November 2009, the team had predicted a “well above average” 2010 season, with 11 to 16 named storms, six to eight hurricanes, and three to five major hurricanes. In April, it got more specific, calling for 15, eight and four. It then tweaked its forecast more in June.

For today’s update, the team continued to cite unusually warm tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures and the development of La Niña, the opposite of El Niño, the warm water phenomenon that tends to hinder hurricane activity.

“We have witnessed the development of La Niña conditions over the past couple of months, and we believe that a moderate La Niña will be present over the next several months, which is associated with decreased levels of vertical wind shear and increased hurricane activity,” veteran forecaster William Gray said in a release.

Gray’s protege, Phil Klotzbach, also cited especially warm surface temperatures in both the tropics and the North Atlantic.

The team gave a 75 percent chance a major hurricane will strike somewhere along the 3,690-mile coastline from Maine to Florida to Texas; the 1950-2000 historical average is 52 percent.

Florida’s 1,350-mile coastline, from Jacksonville around to Pensacola, accounts for a little more than one third of that. And the 90 or so miles of coastline from Boca Raton to Fort Pierce represents about two percent of the total.

The Colorado State team gave a 50 percent chance a major hurricane will make landfall on the U.S. East Coast, including the Florida Peninsula; the long-term average is 31 percent.

On Thursday, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration will update its May forecast, which had called for 14-23 named storms, 8-14 hurricanes and 3-7 major hurricanes.

The private forecasting company AccuWeather has reported its hurricane expert, Joe Bastardi, is expecting 16-18 named storms.

For the record, in 2009:

The Colorado State University team called for 14 named storms, of at least tropical storm strength, with seven becoming hurricanes and three of those major hurricanes.

NOAA predicted 14, four-to-seven, and one-to-three.

Accuweather.com predicted 13 storms, eight becoming hurricanes.

They all were pretty much off the mark. The season ended up with 9, 3 and 2
Quoting hurricane23:


The upper air pattern i see takes this wave on a westerly course not gaining much of any latitude with significant ridging to its north.

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8dlm1.GIF