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Coldest Day in Years On Tap for Ohio, New York

By: Bob Henson 4:28 PM GMT on February 13, 2015

After focusing its wrath on New England for three weeks, winter is about to start expanding its reach. A packet of upper-level energy diving from the Canadian Arctic into the eastern U.S. this weekend will be accompanied by a strong surface high racing southward. The contrast in pressure between this high and the next powerful nor’easter off the New England coast will fuel an expansive area of howling northwest winds and dangerous cold. From northern Ohio across western New York, Sunday could be the coldest day recorded in at least 20 years and the coldest February day in many decades. This area is renowned for its snowy winters, but the same Great Lakes responsible for the snow also help buffer the region somewhat from the most extreme cold that’s found in the Upper Midwest and New England. Here are some NWS-predicted highs for Sunday, along with relevant records. Note that some cities could set daily highs for Sunday just after midnight on Saturday night, in which case the the numbers may end up less cold than shown here.

Cleveland, OH: 3°F
Last time a high was this cold: 2°F on Jan. 16, 2009
Lowest high for any day on record: –5°F on Feb. 9, 1899

Buffalo, NY: –2°F
Last time a high was this cold: –2°F on Jan. 17, 1982
Lowest high for any day on record: –3°F on Feb. 10, 1899 and Feb. 11, 1885

Rochester, NY: –2°F
Last time a high was this cold: –4°F on Jan. 17, 1982
Lowest high for any day on record: –4°F on Jan. 17, 1982

New York Central Park, NY: 17°F
Last time a high was this cold: 17°F on Jan. 22, 2014
Lowest high for any day on record: 2°F on Dec. 30, 1917

Temperatures are expected to dip to near or below 0°F across the New York metro area on Sunday night. The last time Central Park hit zero was on January 27, 1994. A shot of light to moderate snow will hit the coastal region from Philadelphia northward Saturday night and Sunday morning, with some heavier bursts possible in localized bands. The big concern is blowing snow and extremely high wind, with gusts to 60 mph possible (see Figure 1). Snow amounts will be much heavier from the Boston area northeastward. The NWS has posted blizzard watches from Saturday night through Sunday night for coastal counties from northern Massachusetts through Maine. Many areas will see a foot or more of new snow on top of 20 – 40” or more of existing snowpack, exacerbating already-serious impacts on roofing and infrastructure. Blowing snow will be a huge problem. The largest accumulations should be in southeastern Maine: 1 -2 feet are predicted to fall atop Bangor’s current snowpack of 45”. One station to watch for extreme wind this weekend is New Hampshire’s Mount Washington Observatory, which has already gusted to 89 mph at 9:45 AM EST on Friday morning.

Another winter storm appears likely to affect a much broader swath of the nation early next week, with a patchwork of snow, freezing rain, and sleet developing from Oklahoma and Texas to the Carolinas. This system may congeal into yet another bombshell nor’easter later in the week, perhaps accompanied by another shot of frigid air on par with this weekend’s, although uncertainty remains high at this point. Temperatures in New York may not reach the freezing mark for at least the next week.



Figure 1. The GFS model forecast issued at 0000 GMT Friday, 13 February, projects a powerful coastal low just east of Boston (minimum pressure contour of 976 mb) and a strong surface high north of Lake Huron (maximum pressure contour of 1042 mb) at 1200 GMT (7:00 AM EDT) Sunday, 15 February. The tightly packed isobars (black lines) between the two shows the extreme pressure gradient expected to generate dangerous wind chills across much of the Northeast, with blizzard conditions along the northern New England coast. Image credit: College of DuPage/Next Generation Weather Lab.

Severe weather season is at our doorstep
A few thunderstorms could develop on Monday or Tuesday near the cold front plowing into the Gulf Coast, although the threat of severe weather appears minimal. Some of the South’s worst tornadoes have occurred in February, as warm, moist Gulf air surges toward winter storms. Florida and Georgia held their annual severe weather awareness weeks February 2 – 6; Mississippi’s is now under way, and Louisiana and Alabama are slated for next week. It’s been a very quiet year for tornadoes thus far, with only 27 reported nationwide through February 11 compared to a year-to-date average of 68 for the period 2005 – 2014.


Figure 2. One of my favorite books as a child ("Weather: A Golden Guide"] included an illustration of a tornado dipping from mammatus clouds. Photos and videos have since made it clear that mammatus don’t produce twisters, but these clouds still generate a mysterious, ominous beauty. Mammatus are featured in this week’s new WunderPoster, which can be downloaded in formats suitable for posters or postcards. New posters will be unveiled each week through April.
See the WunderPosters site and our blog from last week for more details.



Figure 3. A spectacular field of mammatus on display west of Amarillo, Texas, on June 9, 2014. Image credit: Image credit: wunderphotographer tornadodude.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

yes, we know there's a clear upward trend in the temperature data.

Quoting 1497. jpsb:







Quoting 1477. beell:


NCEP SREF plume for Total-SNO at DCA (Washington, DC) from 20150216/03 UTC run
Some are clustered around the 15 inch mark.Crossed the M.D border around 20 minutes ago.Should be a clear shot to D.C now.Be back home in 2 to 3 hours.
Quoting 1485. StormTrackerScott:

Looks like a 1" to 2" rain event tomorrow from Tampa to Cape Canaveral north. All of this rain will put all of N C FL above average for the month of February as a whole.


1.05" here in Feb thus far. Average is 3.11" per the Florida Climate Center. I'm hoping to double the monthly total by the time this passes through NE FL tomorrow evening.
Quoting 1501. schwankmoe:

yes, we know there's a clear upward trend in the temperature data.




Yeah, maybe adding some trend lines will make it clearer.



But there are those who only see what they want to see.
Quoting 1495. NativeSun:

Come the summer and hurricane season, looks like a Modoki El- Nino will be present, although a weak one. Could be a very interesting hurricane season, but lets wait till the end of spring to make a forecast regarding Nino's or Nina's, and hurricanes.
yes this looks like a true modoki el nino, so this bears watching in the near term especially during the Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons. Could some tricky atmospheric conditions down the road. Stay alert!



wow ice storm to!!
Good Morning. The Conus low moving along the jet stream front just to the SW of TN at the moment is a little hard to "see" on the Satt loops (not well defined) but it is there:



1510. ncstorm
GM..

12z NAM came back south and east for ice coverage..Wilmington is still out but hoping its not a trend..We dont need another issue of last year where we weren't included but was one of the hardest hit counties of NC..

12z


06z
Wednesday starts off tranquil enough, with a mix of sun and clouds. But remember those brief, heavy snow squalls Saturday evening? We may see a repeat scenario on Wednesday afternoon and early evening as another powerhouse cold front charges through the region. Highs range from 25 to 30. On Wednesday night, temperatures fall like a rock, into the single digits in most areas. Strong winds (but not as fierce as Saturday night’s) from the northwest drop wind chills well below zero.
Nashville, TN currently getting rocked with an ice storm.  I do not know how much accretion has taken place but their observation reports have indicated .36" of liquid falling all as freezing rain since 4am.  Their hourly weather forecast only had them at 24F at this time rising to 27F at noon before dropping again.  Instead they are currently at 28F @ 8am.  They were forecasted for 3-6" of sleet snow and freezing rain.  Looking at the radar, they still have over half storm to progress through yet, including the most intense bands yet to move through.  Would not be surprised to see places well above their foretasted .1/4" ice totals along I-40, maybe 1/2-3/4" would be more accurate?   Right now they were to forecasted stay below 1/4" with more sleet on top of that.  They may have already accumulated 1/4" of ice.  Haven't seen any reports of sleet with them yet.  Something to watch.

Observation reports out of Nashville  (NWS link)

This radar loop may not be 100% accurate as to the precipitation type falling at the current location, again Nashville barely on the northern fringe of that pink shield has been reporting freezing rain for the entire event so far.







1513. bwi

All of Eastern Kentucky should see at the least a foot of snow...
1515. hydrus
1516. Drakoen
Quoting 1513. bwi:





Hope we can make it to 8 in. + it's gonna be close. Watch the radar and see where those heavy bands set up.
1517. hydrus
Quoting 1514. ILwthrfan:

All of Eastern Kentucky should see at the least a foot of snow...

All ready an icy mess here. An SUV slid off the road in front of my house and snapped a telephone pole. A mother and her son escaped with injury. The roads here are extremely dangerous when weather is good , never mind when iced.
Quoting 1517. hydrus:

All ready an icy mess here. An SUV slid off the road in front of my house and snapped a telephone pole. A mother and her son escaped with injury. The roads here are extremely dangerous when weather is good , never mind when iced.


Where exactly are you located?
1519. Drakoen
Quoting 1512. ILwthrfan:

Nashville, TN currently getting rocked with an ice storm.  I do not know how much accretion has taken place but their observation reports have indicated .36" of liquid falling all as freezing rain since 4am.  Their hourly weather forecast only had them at 24F at this time rising to 27F at noon before dropping again.  Instead they are currently at 28F @ 8am.  They were forecasted for 3-6" of sleet snow and freezing rain.  Looking at the radar, they still have over half storm to progress through yet, including the most intense bands yet to move through.  Would not be surprised to see places well above their foretasted .1/4" ice totals along I-40, maybe 1/2-3/4" would be more accurate?   Right now they were to forecasted stay below 1/4" with more sleet on top of that.  They may have already accumulated 1/4" of ice.  Haven't seen any reports of sleet with them yet.  Something to watch.

Observation reports out of Nashville  (NWS link)

This radar loop may not be 100% accurate as to the precipitation type falling at the current location, again Nashville barely on the northern fringe of that pink shield has been reporting freezing rain for the entire event so far.










That radar isn't accurate. There's warm air in the 850mb-700mb layer which is melting frozen hydrometeors above the boundary layer.

Quoting 1517. hydrus:

All ready an icy mess here. An SUV slid off the road in front of my house and snapped a telephone pole. A mother and her son escaped with injury. The roads here are extremely dangerous when weather is good , never mind when iced.
Ice storms are always the worst.  Only time I have ever been in an auto accident was under these types of conditions. Especially when you get these cold air temperatures several degrees below freezing.  Allows for almost instant accretion.  You can't drive more than 10 mph once you get over 1/4" of ice.  You just have no control where your vehicle goes once you loose traction. 

Hope people stay safe down there and power outages are kept to a minimum.  With that air temperature already at 28F and the surge of moisture going back all the way to southern Arkansas, it will be difficult to cool that air temperature down cool enough to transition that precip back over to sleet or snow.   Must a be solid 700 mb warm air convection taking place.   Usually something forecasters are always commenting on how difficult it is for models to accurately forecast those critical thickness layers above the surface.

Next couple of hours could really add to those totals if it stays at its current profile.  rainfall rates are already .1 to .2" per hour across much of central Tennessee.
Are you guys buying this cold snap behind the southern storm? The forecast in Charlotte is 23 degrees and sunny on Thursday. Don't think I've ever seen a daytime high temp even close to that cold on a sunny day since I've lived in NC.
Experimental Ice Impact Index for Central TN from NWS-Nashville.

Day 1
Day 2
Day 3

brand new hot off the press

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
854 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-
40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ICE STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

TNZ056>066-075-077>080-093>095-162300-
/O.CAN.KOHX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150217T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KOHX.IS.W.0001.150216T1454Z-150217T0600Z/
PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUT HERFORD-CANNON-
DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY -VAN BUREN-
WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MUR FREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHE LBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT.. .SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
854 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* TIMING...ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ONE QUARTER TO ONE INCH OF ICE LIKELY FROM FREEZING
RAIN.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME COATED. POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY. TREES AND BRANCHES ARE LIKELY TO FALL.

* OTHER IMPACTS...PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW...
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.
It's going to be tough on folks who actually went to work this morning along parts of the I-20, I-30 and I-40 corridors when they leave for home on the afternoon with the icing issues. My Wife and I were telling our Daughter in Atlanta to not go to work this morning because of potential icing but it has not materialized there this morning so she went in. Now we have to see what conditions will be like later this afternoon and certainly into tomorrow morning. Folks needs to be really careful later this afternoon and evening driving home.
1525. LargoFl
Quoting CarolinaHurricanes87:
Are you guys buying this cold snap behind the southern storm? The forecast in Charlotte is 23 degrees and sunny on Thursday. Don't think I've ever seen a daytime high temp even close to that cold on a sunny day since I've lived in NC.


You're going to be really close to breaking the record low at night.
Thursday's record low is 8 degrees and your forecast is for 9 degrees.

With low temperatures in the single digits, I wouldn't be surprised if you stay in the low to mid 20s for a high temperature on Thursday.
1527. Drakoen
Winter Storm Warning issued for DC has updated increasing totals to 6-10 in. Previously it was 4-8.
Probably my most favorite scene on television--when weather meets The Walking Dead (a tornado moves through toward the end in case that's not clear)

Link
Quoting 1527. Drakoen:

Winter Storm Warning issued for DC has updated increaseing totals to 6-10 in. Previously it was 4-8.
Hopefully the rule that applies to thunderstorms blowing up around here applies to this storm.Our clippers have been blowing up though.
Local NBC weather has backed off the cold quite a bit in my area. Originally they had upcoming temperatures in the 30s, but now forecast lows are well up in the 40s.

Fort Myers 7 Day
Quoting 1521. CarolinaHurricanes87:

Are you guys buying this cold snap behind the southern storm? The forecast in Charlotte is 23 degrees and sunny on Thursday. Don't think I've ever seen a daytime high temp even close to that cold on a sunny day since I've lived in NC.

Snow cover (and to a lesser degree ice cover) essentially acts as a refrigerator. Many daily records will probably be broken across the region later this week.
assuming over .7 inches of snow tomorrow, Boston will have the second snowiest winter ever.
also 4.3 inches would make it only the 2nd winter over 100 inches.
Whelp, I woke up this morning hoping for snow and have only freezing rain with occasional sleet :( Expecting ice accumulations from 1/4 to 1 inch before getting about 1-2" of snow tonight, so I'm hoping the power lines hold. It's probably going to stick around for several days with temps not breaking freezing until Saturday, even getting well below zero Thursday night! I thought this was the South???
STORM SUMMARY NUMBER 01 FOR SOUTHERN PLAINS TO MID-ATLANTIC WINTER
STORM
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
900 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015


Excerpt:

THE SURFACE LOW OVER LOUISIANA WILL MOVE EAST NORTHEASTWARD
TODAY...INTO NORTHERN ALABAMA BY EARLY EVENING...AND WILL MOVE OFF
THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST TUESDAY MORNING. WIDESPREAD WINTRY
PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR NORTH OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW
TODAY AND TONIGHT. ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 5 TO 12 INCHES
ARE EXPECTED OVER A LARGE AREA FROM WESTERN KENTUCKY EASTWARD TO
THE DELMARVA REGION. THE HEAVIEST ADDITIONAL SNOW IS EXPECTED TO
FALL FROM CENTRAL AND EASTERN KENTUCKY INTO SOUTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...WHERE 10 TO 15 INCHES OF ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL ARE
EXPECTED. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE. FARTHER
SOUTH...SIGNIFICANT FREEZING RAIN ICE ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED
FROM CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ARKANSAS TO TENNESSEE...NORTHEAST
GEORGIA AND PARTS OF THE CAROLINAS...WHERE WIDESPREAD ICE
ACCUMULATIONS OF A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH ARE EXPECTED. LOCALIZED
ICE ACCUMULATIONS MAY EXCEED A HALF INCH...ESPECIALLY OVER
PORTIONS OF TENNESSEE AND EXTREME NORTHERN MISSISSIPPI.
1535. Drakoen
I'm a little worried the mountains will eat this thing up for us and lower our potential snowfall quite a bit. Will have to see how things evolve this afternoon.
Quoting 1515. hydrus:



Snow-icane?
1537. hydrus
Has anyone seen the latest GFS.?..It looks absolutely hideous..I certainly hope its wrong...Link
1538. ricderr
Scott, you have been saying this for over a year. Maybe its time to give it a rest and wait for it to play out.


heck no!!!!!!!......we're entering the time of the spring barrier....this should be fun......remember last years...super duper el nino.........
The NWS headline for the day:

Major winter storm moves east; will bring heavy snow and ice from portions of the Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic

A strengthening area of low pressure will slide through the Southeast U.S today bringing wintry weather from portions of the Mississippi Valley to the Mid-Atlantic. The heaviest snowfall will likely occur from southeast Missouri to southern West Virginia with some locations receiving more than a foot of snow. Farther south, from central Arkansas to the Carolinas, ice will be the main threat.
1540. bwi
Quoting 1537. hydrus:

Has anyone seen the latest GFS.?..It looks absolutely hideous..I certainly hope its wrong...Link


Hideous in what way?
The current ice forecast for the Carolinas as the system moves east:

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC
1000 AM EST MON FEB 16 2015

.WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM THIS
AFTERNOON TO 9 AM EST TUESDAY...

* LOCATIONS...INCLUDE THE SOUTHERN...CENTRAL...AND EASTERN
PIEDMONT...INCLUDING ALBEMARLE...ASHEBORO...SILER
CITY...RALEIGH...AND LOUISBURG.

* PRECIPITATION TYPES...INCLUDE AN INITIAL MIX OF SNOW AND
SLEET...THEN MOSTLY FREEZING RAIN.

* ACCUMULATIONS...OF SNOW AND SLEET AROUND AN INCH TO POSSIBLY TWO
ARE EXPECTED NORTH OF U.S HIGHWAY 64...RANGING TO A COATING TO
THE SOUTH. LIGHT SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION WILL BE FOLLOWED
BY FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL BETWEEN ONE QUARTER AND ONE HALF INCH.

* TIMING...THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

* IMPACTS...ROADS WILL QUICKLY BECOME SNOW AND ICE-COVERED...AND
TRAVEL WILL BECOME DANGEROUS. FREEZING RAIN ACCRUAL ON TREES AND
POWERLINES WILL ALSO RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS POWER
OUTAGES.

* WINDS...WILL BE FROM THE NORTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...WILL HOVER MOSTLY IN THE MIDDLE 20S.
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NASHVILLE TN
854 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING CONTINUES FOR LOCATIONS MAINLY NORTH OF I-
40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT. ICE STORM WARNING ISSUED FOR AREAS SOUTH OF
I-40 THROUGH MIDNIGHT...

TNZ056>066-075-077>080-093>095-162300-
/O.CAN.KOHX.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-150217T0600Z/
/O.NEW.KOHX.IS.W.0001.150216T1454Z-150217T0600Z/
PERRY-HICKMAN-LEWIS-WILLIAMSON-MAURY-MARSHALL-RUT HERFORD-CANNON-
DE KALB-WHITE-CUMBERLAND-BEDFORD-COFFEE-WARREN-GRUNDY -VAN BUREN-
WAYNE-LAWRENCE-GILES-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...LOBELVILLE...CENTERVILLE...HOHENWALD...
FRANKLIN...BRENTWOOD...COLUMBIA...LEWISBURG...MUR FREESBORO...
WOODBURY...SMITHVILLE...SPARTA...CROSSVILLE...SHE LBYVILLE...
TULLAHOMA...MANCHESTER...MCMINNVILLE...ALTAMONT.. .SPENCER...
WAYNESBORO...LAWRENCEBURG...PULASKI
854 AM CST MON FEB 16 2015

...ICE STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT...
...WINTER STORM WARNING IS CANCELLED...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NASHVILLE HAS ISSUED AN ICE STORM
WARNING...WHICH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL MIDNIGHT CST TONIGHT. THE
WINTER STORM WARNING HAS BEEN CANCELLED.

* TIMING...ICE ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH MONDAY EVENING.

* ACCUMULATIONS...ONE QUARTER TO ONE INCH OF ICE LIKELY FROM FREEZING
RAIN.

* MAIN IMPACT...ICE WILL CAUSE HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE AREA. ROADS ARE LIKELY TO BECOME COATED. POWER OUTAGES ARE
LIKELY. TREES AND BRANCHES ARE LIKELY TO FALL.

* OTHER IMPACTS...PRECIPITATION WILL MIX WITH SLEET AND SNOW...
ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING...WITH 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW AND SLEET POSSIBLE.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A ICE STORM WARNING MEANS SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF ICE ARE EXPECTED
OR OCCURRING. THIS WILL MAKE TRAVEL VERY HAZARDOUS OR IMPOSSIBLE.


ice storm!!
Nova Scotia encased in ice, with blizzard warnings ongoing
BRETT BUNDALE STAFF REPORTER
Published February 16, 2015 - 10:20am
Last Updated February 16, 2015 - 10:22am


Lieut. Chris Hillis of the Kentville Fire Department clears snow from the front of the station late Sunday. The rain turned the heavy snow into ice, encasing much of the province Monday. (IAN FAIRCLOUGH / Southwest Nova Bureau)

Blizzard and wind warnings continue to blanket large swaths of the Maritimes Monday after a harsh winter storm buried the region under snow, ice and rain.

The slow moving nor’easter, a low pressure system that formed off the United States east coast and tracked northeast across Nova Scotia, has closed roads and disrupted travel.

While many businesses were already set to close Monday due to the province holiday, the bad weather prompted the cancellation of many Heritage Day events and additional closures across Nova Scotia.
Full Article

Excerpt:

"Coastal areas in Halifax were also doused with about 30 millimetres of rain, flooding many roads and stranding some motorists in thigh-deep water.

Rain was followed by flash freezing, which lead to treacherously icy conditions across the region
.

Top winds of 150 kilometres an hour whipped through Grand Etang in Cape Breton, more than double the strongest Halifax gusts."
1544. ricderr
so last week...i had picked 4 cities and their forecast rainfall amount using the WRC's QPF.......all four cities were a bust....in three cases they were forecast to recieve more rain than they did...and in the other they received twice as much as forecast.....so this week...let's pick another four and see if the QPF can do better.....




we'll toss tampa in the mix again this time at 0.50 - .075

houston at 0.25 - 0.50

augusta at at 0.50 - .075

jackson mississippi at 0.75 - 1.00




Quoting ricderr:
Scott, you have been saying this for over a year. Maybe its time to give it a rest and wait for it to play out.


heck no!!!!!!!......we're entering the time of the spring barrier....this should be fun......remember last years...super duper el nino.........


Lol. I see he's still on the El Nino kick. You would think that people would learn to take these models with the understanding that they are most likely wrong and will change. Oh well. Cheers!
1549. hydrus
Quoting 1540. bwi:



Hideous in what way?
Stalled frontal boundary drops a lot of ice on the deep south.
Quoting 1544. ricderr:

so last week...i had picked 4 cities and their forecast rainfall amount using the WRC's QPF.......all four cities were a bust....in three cases they were forecast to recieve more rain than they did...and in the other they received twice as much as forecast.....so this week...let's pick another four and see if the QPF can do better.....




we'll toss tampa in the mix again this time at 0.50 - .075

houston at 0.25 - 0.50

augusta at at 0.50 - .075

jackson mississippi at 0.75 - 1.00







But wait?! You're not a scientist, what credentials and sources can you claim for being able to conduct such academic research? I'm sure ScottLincoln will have some slick reply as to why the QPF is still reliable, when we all know it's not.
Quoting 1550. tampabaymatt:



But wait?! You're not a scientist, what credentials and sources can you claim for being able to conduct such academic research? I'm sure ScottLincoln will have some slick reply as to why the QPF is still reliable, when we all know it's not.


For whatever reason it seems the QPF forecast from the WPC rarely verify. The QPF forecast for FL seem to always be downplayed. Either way the Short range models all show 1" to 2" of rain from a line Tampa to Cape Canaveral north. The I-4 corridor should do well tomorrow.
Those wishing for Modoki El-Nino. This does not look promising.

Quoting 1551. StormTrackerScott:



For whatever reason it seems the QPF forecast from the WPC rarely verify. The QPF forecast for FL seem to always be downplayed. Either way the Short range models all show 1" to 2" of rain from a line Tampa to Cape Canaveral north. The I-4 corridor should do well tomorrow.


The QPF is a good tool for observing a pattern of rainfall. For instance, what it's telling me for FL is that the next front will bring rain to most of the state, with the I-4 corridor to north of the Big Bend getting the most of the rain. I have no doubt the totals it's forecasting will not verify, so in that sense it's unreliable. This is what I've, and others, have pointed out from the beginning.
Quoting 1551. StormTrackerScott:



For whatever reason it seems the QPF forecast from the WPC rarely verify. The QPF forecast for FL seem to always be downplayed. Either way the Short range models all show 1" to 2" of rain from a line Tampa to Cape Canaveral north. The I-4 corridor should do well tomorrow.

I haven't weighed in on this discussion before, but for southern LA, they're usually pretty close.

Edit - to add to this, the 1-3 day is usually pretty close, the 5 or 7 day tells me something's coming, and generally the 'size' of it, but I rely on the shorter-term QPFs for accuracy.
Does anyone have the weekly enso update yet?
Quoting 1550. tampabaymatt:



But wait?! You're not a scientist, what credentials and sources can you claim for being able to conduct such academic research? I'm sure ScottLincoln will have some slick reply as to why the QPF is still reliable, when we all know it's not.


Well the methodology is flawed, but there's no need to be a jerk about it. Considering the verification results are already available here using sound methodology, as fun as Ric's experiment is, I'll stick with what the actual numbers say and not a small, inaccurate sample. That being said, the WPC QPF seems to do well in comparison to the other models according to the actual data and analysis.
1557. ricderr
But wait?! You're not a scientist, what credentials and sources can you claim for being able to conduct such academic research? I'm sure ScottLincoln will have some slick reply as to why the QPF is still reliable, when we all know it's not.


i'm an ass.......that's credentials enough :-)
Quoting 1556. Naga5000:



Well the methodology is flawed, but there's no need to be a jerk about it. Considering the verification results are already available here using sound methodology, as fun as Ric's experiment is, I'll stick with what the actual numbers say and not a small, inaccurate sample. That being said, the WPC QPF seems to do well in comparison to the other models according to the actual data and analysis.



I was using quite a bit of sarcasm. No offense intended to ricderr.
1559. sar2401
Quoting ricderr:
so last week...i had picked 4 cities and their forecast rainfall amount using the WRC's QPF.......all four cities were a bust....in three cases they were forecast to recieve more rain than they did...and in the other they received twice as much as forecast.....so this week...let's pick another four and see if the QPF can do better.....




we'll toss tampa in the mix again this time at 0.50 - .075

houston at 0.25 - 0.50

augusta at at 0.50 - .075

jackson mississippi at 0.75 - 1.00




It looks to me like Jackson is more in the 1.25 to 1.50 area but the colors are so close and reproduce so differently from monitor to monitor that may not be the best city to use. Some place like Pensacola or Panama City appears to be solidly in the 0.25 to 0.50 area, FWIW, which isn't much. As I've said previously (and posted verification from the WPC to back it up), the 5 day QPF forecast is good for a general indicator of where precipitation might fall but not good at all with predicting amounts.
1560. LargoFl
Quoting 1530. Sfloridacat5:

Local NBC weather has backed off the cold quite a bit in my area. Originally they had upcoming temperatures in the 30s, but now forecast lows are well up in the 40s.

Fort Myers 7 Day

hi they are still uncertain just how far south the freezing temps will get..still days away yet they say...
1561. LargoFl
NWS Miama:LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MUCH COLD TEMPERATURES ARRIVE BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR THURSDAY MAY MAKE THURSDAY
NIGHT/EARLY FRIDAY MORNING THE COLDEST OF THE WEEK. H8 TEMPS
SUPPORT TEMPERATURES AT LEAST AS COLD AS LATE LAST WEEK...MEANING
HIGHS MAY STRUGGLE TO REACH 60F AND LOWS WILL DROP AT LEAST TO
UPPER 40S EVEN IN THE TYPICALLY WARMEST COASTAL LOCATIONS. ADDING
WIND AS A FACTOR...WIND CHILL VALUES ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE 20S
OVER THE INTERIOR...30S ELSEWHERE. AS OF NOW IT APPEARS AIR WILL
BE DRY ENOUGH...AND WINDS STRONG ENOUGH...TO PRECLUDE FROST
FORMATION. HOWEVER...A FREEZE IS AT LEAST POSSIBLE OVER WESTERN
INTERIOR SECTIONS...WITH AMBIENT TEMPS IN 30S THROUGH THE
INTERIOR.

WINDS WILL TRANSITION TO NE FRIDAY...AND MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE. WITH RIDGE CENTERED IN ATLANTIC THIS WEEKEND...A
SIGNIFICANT WARMING AND MOISTENING TREND IS EXPECTED. LITTLE
SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL IS ANTICIPATED...ALTHOUGH A PASSING ATLANTIC
COAST SHOWER CANT BE RULED OUT.
First image is from Halifax, 'ice entombment' (and the poor guy got a ticket). Second image is from Prince Edward Island.


For some reason, my number of comments ticker has reset this morning and I was back down to 0 comments. No idea how that happened.
The issue of stalled frontal boundries always makes for difficult localized forecasts and becomes an "x" factor; the timing often slows down the event and you might get more prolonged precip (whether rain, mixed, or snow) over a particular region as the front "drifts" around at a slow pace. Have to see how this all pans out between today and tomorrow. Looking at the radar loops, it looks like most of Tennessee is facing freezing rain precip over the course of the day and evening.
1565. ricderr
Well the methodology is flawed, but there's no need to be a jerk about it. Considering the verification results are already available here using sound methodology, as fun as Ric's experiment is, I'll stick with what the actual numbers say and not a small, inaccurate sample. That being said, the WPC QPF seems to do well in comparison to the other models according to the actual data and analysis.


now i'm butthurt..........my sample size might be small...but how is it inaccurate?....LOL
1566. ricderr
It looks to me like Jackson is more in the 1.25 to 1.50 area but the colors are so close and reproduce so differently from monitor to monitor that may not be the best city to use. Some place like Pensacola or Panama City appears to be solidly in the 0.25 to 0.50 area, FWIW, which isn't much. As I've said previously (and posted verification from the WPC to back it up), the 5 day QPF forecast is good for a general indicator of where precipitation might fall but not good at all with predicting amounts.


ok....looking again i'll agree with you and change the totals on my blog
Quoting LargoFl:
hi they are still uncertain just how far south the freezing temps will get..still days away yet they say...


NWS is calling for a low of 37 degrees Thursday night.
Local NBCnews is calling for 45 degrees.

The actual low will probably be somewhere in the middle.
We got down to 41 degrees the other day (but record low was 30 degrees that night).
Quoting 1559. sar2401:

It looks to me like Jackson is more in the 1.25 to 1.50 area but the colors are so close and reproduce so differently from monitor to monitor that may not be the best city to use. Some place like Pensacola or Panama City appears to be solidly in the 0.25 to 0.50 area, FWIW, which isn't much. As I've said previously (and posted verification from the WPC to back it up), the 5 day QPF forecast is good for a general indicator of where precipitation might fall but not good at all with predicting amounts.

1.5" it is.

Quoting 1565. ricderr:

Well the methodology is flawed, but there's no need to be a jerk about it. Considering the verification results are already available here using sound methodology, as fun as Ric's experiment is, I'll stick with what the actual numbers say and not a small, inaccurate sample. That being said, the WPC QPF seems to do well in comparison to the other models according to the actual data and analysis.


now i'm butthurt..........my sample size might be small...but how is it inaccurate?....LOL


It's too small to make any kind of accurate analysis. To be fair, the actual verification page does show the WPC QPF is likely to forecast higher totals than observed throughout the year, but still closer to observations overall than the other models used for comparison. No insult intended to you of course, just pointing out that while picking a few cities and looking at the results is a neat thing to follow, it isn't a large enough sample to get a good idea of what's happening.
1570. Patrap
pass da tabasco will ya?
1571. hydrus
Quoting 1518. CarolinaHurricanes87:



Where exactly are you located?
Rock Island, TN . Located in Eastern Warren County.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1568. TropicalAnalystwx13:


1.5" it is.



The image Ric got his number from for Jackson doesn't show 1.5" that far south. (Used the LA/Arkansas border as a go-by for spatial reference.)
1574. MahFL
Quoting 1555. tiggerhurricanes2001:

Does anyone have the weekly enso update yet?


No, but Scott has the hourly one, if that's any good ?
1576. GatorWX
Is it hurricane season yet? How's everyone been? Haven't been on much at all lately.
Clarksville Tenn.(northern Tenn.) 20 degrees with heavy snow.
Nashville Tenn. (central Tenn.) 30 degrees with light freezing rain.
Pretty significant drop in temperature over a short distance (49 miles).




Quoting 1552. StormTrackerScott:

Those wishing for Modoki El-Nino. This does not look promising.


Scott, it's not about what the models are showing, they are as accurate as the long range hurricane and weather models, which are really poor. Take at look at the atmospheric conditions around the world and go back to the last Modoki El Nino year and look at the atmospheric conditions for this time of year and compare them. Scott even JB is calling for a possible Modoki come summer, at least a weak one. If we do get a Nino this year it will be weak and more than likely a Modoki. Check the past and do a little research, don't go by what the models show or you will probably be more wrong than right.
1579. GatorWX
Quoting 1577. Sfloridacat5:

Clarksville Tenn.(northern Tenn.) 20 degrees with heavy snow.
Nashville Tenn. (central Tenn.) 30 degrees with light freezing rain.







It's 76 F here and sunny. Feel for my friends to the north! Supposed to get low-mid 30's later this week. Suppose it'll be a bit warmer down by you. Should be our 3rd frost of the season. Been a mild winter overall, by FL standards.
Quoting 1578. NativeSun:

Scott, it's not about what the models are showing, they are as accurate as the long range hurricane and weather models, which are really poor. Take at look at the atmospheric conditions around the world and go back to the last Modoki El Nino year and look at the atmospheric conditions for this time of year and compare them. Scott even JB is calling for a possible Modoki come summer, at least a weak one. If we do get a Nino this year it will be weak and more than likely a Modoki. Check the past and do a little research, don't go by what the models show or you will probably be more wrong than right.
Quoting 1576. GatorWX:

Is it hurricane season yet? How's everyone been? Haven't been on much at all lately.
I'm waiting on hurricane season or at least severe weather season. We never get snow or wintry mix down here in Savannah Georgia.
Quoting 1521. CarolinaHurricanes87:

Are you guys buying this cold snap behind the southern storm? The forecast in Charlotte is 23 degrees and sunny on Thursday. Don't think I've ever seen a daytime high temp even close to that cold on a sunny day since I've lived in NC.

XMACIS stats for the Charlotte area indicate -5F as the all time record low and -5F as the Feb record low. As for the daily maximum temps, it's 14F for both the month of Feb and all time.
1583. LargoFl
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
338 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015

DCZ001-MDZ013-014-016>018-503>506-VAZ054-170445-
/O.EXT.KLWX.WS.W.0005.150216T2038Z-150217T1700Z/
DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-CHARLES-
ST. MARYS-CALVERT-NORTHWEST MONTGOMERY-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEASTERN MONTGOMERY-NORTHWEST HOWARD-
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST HOWARD-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...WALDORF...
ST MARYS CITY...GERMANTOWN...DAMASCUS...ROCKVILLE...LISBON. ..
COLUMBIA...ELLICOTT CITY...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH
338 PM EST MON FEB 16 2015

...WINTER STORM WARNING NOW IN EFFECT UNTIL NOON EST TUESDAY...

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 TO 10 INCHES...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS
EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF LOWER SOUTHERN MARYLAND.

* TIMING...SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH THE EVENING
HOURS. HEAVIEST SNOW IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING.

* TEMPERATURES...MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S.

* WINDS...EAST 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...BEGINNING THIS EVENING...ROADS WILL BECOME SNOW
COVERED AND SLIPPERY WITH VISIBILITIES BEING REDUCED TO ONE
HALF MILE OR LESS AT TIMES. THE COMBINATION OF SNOW COVERED
ROADS AND LOW VISIBILITY WILL MAKE TRAVELING DANGEROUS.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WARNING FOR HEAVY SNOW MEANS SEVERE WINTER WEATHER
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING. SIGNIFICANT AMOUNTS OF
SNOW ARE FORECAST THAT WILL MAKE TRAVEL DANGEROUS. ONLY TRAVEL IN
AN EMERGENCY. IF YOU MUST TRAVEL...KEEP AN EXTRA FLASHLIGHT...
FOOD...AND WATER IN YOUR VEHICLE IN CASE OF AN EMERGENCY.

&&

$$
1584. LargoFl
Posting from 1 mile south of uptown Charlotte. Started as flurries, quickly mixed then changed over to sleet then freezing rain, within 30 minutes. Just a light freezing drizzle right now. Cars have a light coating of ice, and there have been several accidents, so maybe some slick spots on the roads already. Only going to get worse here. Lots of freezing rain on the way
Quoting 1421. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

big picture you can see the flow slamming Alaska pushing warm air in causing cold air to flow down and over ne north America and seems to be a weird wind pattern right across the arctic climate shifting everything around

or that's what I see anyway




Did California piss somebody off?
1587. hydrus
Quoting 1579. GatorWX:



It's 76 F here and sunny. Feel for my friends to the north! Supposed to get low-mid 30's later this week. Suppose it'll be a bit warmer down by you. Should be our 3rd frost of the season. Been a mild winter overall, by FL standards.
Wer u been hiden.?.....holi frejoles..