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Cold, Ice, and Snow Assault U.S.; Windstorm Xaver Kills 6 in Europe

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:51 PM GMT on December 06, 2013

A frigid winter cold blast has most of the U.S. in an icy grip, as cold air plunging southwards from Canada will bring temperatures 10 - 40 degrees below average to more than 80% of the contiguous U.S. on Friday, Saturday, and Sunday. The most notable cold temperatures were in the West on Wednesday and Thursday, where numerous daily lows were set in Montana, Colorado, Nevada, Wyoming, Oregon, and Washington. The high temperature on Thursday in Havre, Montana reached only -14°F, with a low of -28°. Ely, Nevada hit 17 degrees below zero on Wednesday, crushing the old record of 5 degrees below zero for the date. The cold air brought a hard freeze Friday morning to portions of California's Central Valley, where growers have mobilized defenses to protect fragile crops. More freezing nights are expected this weekend. Riding up the edge of this cold airmass is Winter Storm Cleon, which is spreading a nasty mix of snow, freezing rain, and sleet from Texas to the Ohio Valley. Hardest hit has been Texas, where combined sleet/freezing rain accumulations reached 1.5" in Fort Worth and 1" in Dallas Friday morning, according to the National Weather Service. Ice accumulations of 1.25" were reported in Greenwood, Arkansas, and 1" in Poteau, Oklahoma. At least 200,000 customers have lost power in Texas, and American Airlines and American Eagle were forced to cancel about 900 flights system-wide due to the bad weather in Texas. Freezing rain and significant power outages from this dangerous ice storm will likely affect a swath from Southeast Oklahoma through Central Arkansas, Southeast Missouri, Southeast Illinois, Western Tennessee, Western Kentucky, Southern Indiana, and Southwest Ohio. Just to the north of this swath if ice will be a band of 5 - 8 inches of snow. Heaviest snows so far from Cleon include:

• Minnesota: 35.3 inches, Two Harbors
• Colorado: 30 inches, Douglas Pass
• Idaho: 30 inches, Gibbonsville
• Illinois: 10 inches, Mount Vernon
• Missouri: 9 inches, Fredericktown
• Arkansas: 7 inches, Bentonville
• Indiana: 7 inches, Spencer



Figure 1. A statue of George Washington is covered with freshly fallen snow at the village in Beaver Creek, Colo., Dec. 4, 2013. (AP Photo/Charles Krupa)

New storm gathering strength over California
Once Cleon exits stage right on Saturday, we will have a new winter storm entering stage left, as Winter Storm Dion is now gathering strength over California. Dion is expected to follow a track very similar to Cleon's. Dion will bring snow of 1 - 2' to California's Sierra Mountains by Saturday, and will begin spreading snow east of the Rockies on Saturday night. Freezing rain, sleet and snow will fall from northeast Texas and southeast Oklahoma to the mid-Mississippi Valley and Ohio Valley, including Little Rock, Ark., Memphis, Tenn. and Cincinnati. Accumulations will be far less than for Cleon, but impacts could still be significant, since none of Cleon's snow and ice accumulations will have melted. The nasty weather will push into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Sunday into Sunday night, with Washington, D.C., Baltimore, Philadelphia and New York City all seeing a wintry mix of snow, sleet and freezing rain. However, with warmer air moving in, it appears a changeover to rain is likely late Sunday into early Monday.

Windstorm Xaver kills six in Europe
Windstorm Xaver killed at least six people and caused extensive damage in Northern Europe, after raking the area with near-hurricane force winds that brought a huge storm surge to the coasts of England, the Netherlands, Germany, and Denmark. Two people were killed by high winds in the U.K., three in Poland, and one in Denmark. Xaver's powerful northwest winds blowing along the length of the North Sea piled up a massive storm surge that was the highest since 1953 in portions of Eastern England, and the second highest of the past 200 years in Northern Germany. A storm tide 3.7 meters (12.1') above the high tide mark hit Hamburg, Germany, flooding the historic fish market and low-lying regions of the Elbe River. This storm tide was just 0.35 meters below the record set in January 1976. At Bremerhaven, Germany the storm surge peaked at 4 meters, but came at low tide. The highest storm tide was 3 meters above the high tide mark early Friday morning, falling about 0.2 meters short of the all-time record, also set in January 1976. Winds gusts as high as 92 mph (148 kph) and 98 mph (158 kph) were recorded along the Danish and German coasts, respectively. A few notable winds from the storm:

Oil platform Ula off the coast of southern Norway: sustained winds of 91 mph, gusting to 108 mph, at 2 pm local time Thursday.
Copenhagen, Denmark: sustained winds of 45 mph, gusting to 65 mph at 12:20 am Friday
Sylt, Germany: sustained winds of 58 mph at 3 am Friday
Norderney, Germany: sustained winds of 60 mph at 8 pm Thursday


Figure 2. A 14 meter (46') high, 1000 kilogram (2200 lb) Tyrannosaurus replica that was standing in front of the German climate museum Klimahaus in Bremehaven had the bolts which connected its base plate to the ground sheared off by the force of Xaver's wind Friday morning, sending the unfortunate T-Rex sliding to the edge of a quay. The T-Rex stood in a place where the air was channelled around the Klimahaus building and got greatly accelerated. Luckily, the beast had only some minor abrasions. A peak wind gust of 78 mph (126 kph) was recorded in Bremerhaven during the storm.


Figure 3. The Klimahaus T-Rex in a more festive holiday mood before the great wind storm. Credit for both images: Christine Sollmann and Michael Theusner of Klimahaus. According to Dr. Theusner, "There has been surprisingly small damage for this type of storm in Germany. This may be due to the extensive preparations and warnings that were provided to the public. I think it also played a role that "Christian" had already removed weak trees and other weak structures (roofs etc). Additionally, people were sensitized due to their experience with "Christian" and stayed home."
 

Figure 4. Day-night satellite image of Windstorm Xaver taken at 21 UTC Thursday December 5, 2013. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Jeff Masters
no sign of life
no sign of life
20 below zero this morning on the gallatin river
Winter
Winter
December
Freezing fog
Freezing fog
Sunrise with Freezing fog over Marston Lake in Littleton, CO 12/5/2013 tying a record at -15 for the day.
First Snow!
First Snow!
Our first snow of this season. My husband and I took an evening stroll around town.

Winter Weather Cleon

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Philadelphia International Airport ground stop
Philadelphia was NOT expected to get more than 1-3 inches. HUGE forecast bust for everybody.
1004. Dakster
Quoting 997. washingtonian115:

MattRogers
1:15 PM EST
National and Dulles both reporting snow depth of 1" at 1pm ET.

The snow is sticking to the roads in my neighborhood.Fat flakes now falling but I'm still not expecting much.


How many inches do you need to be satisfied?
Delaware Memorial Bridge connecting Delaware and New Jersey is closed. Platt Bridge major crossing on I-95 in Philly closed as well.
Quoting 1004. Dakster:


How many inches do you need to be satisfied?
Around 6 inches or so.This is a baby snow event here in D.C.
5" of snow now. I also just heard a large bang outside. I would think people would learn not to drive in this sort of thing. Oh well.
Quoting 1007. Doppler22:
5" of snow now. I also just heard a large bang outside. I would think people would learn not to drive in this sort of thing. Oh well.
Meanwhile a pathetic 2 inches at my house and 1 inch at national.
Holy cow, this Eagles Lions game is insane.
Quoting 1009. largeeyes:
Holy cow, this Eagles Lions game is insane.


They are trying to run in 4 inches of snow... its hilarious
Snowing pretty good at the Stadium in Washington. KC 17- Wash 0
Short range HRRR got 4-6 more inches for Philly.

Dolphins-Steelers, snowing to beat the band!
Isn't this headed ur way, KOTG?
Quoting 1010. VAbeachhurricanes:


They are trying to run in 4 inches of snow... its hilarious


The pass attempts are just.....wow. I think the lions should use the edge of camoflage....
Quoting 1015. BahaHurican:
Isn't this headed ur way, KOTG?
ya local forecast is calling for it to change to rain by dawn may get 5 cm nothing more temps rising to plus 2 before morning falling back to minus 1 by early afternoon
Snow covers 50.8% of the United States today (12-8). Compare this to 13.8% in '12, 37.3% in '11, 37.7% in '10, 53.4% in '09, 26.3% in '08, and 48.3% in '07.
Quoting 1016. largeeyes:


The pass attempts are just.....wow. I think the lions should use the edge of camoflage....


edit: and lol...they can't even try extra points.
Two awesome pictures!



1021. Dakster
Quoting 1019. largeeyes:


edit: and lol...they can't even try extra points.


Both teams should get extra points just for playing.
Quoting 1018. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Snow covers 50.8% of the United States today (12-8). Compare this to 13.8% in '12, 37.3% in '11, 37.7% in '10, 53.4% in '09, 26.3% in '08, and 48.3% in '07.


53% in 2009? That's the last "fun" winter for everybody in North Carolina. Promising start to winter :)
1024. Dakster
Quoting 1022. Bluestorm5:


53% in 2009? That's the last "fun" winter for everybody in North Carolina. Promising start to winter :)


Could be another flooding spring/summer of 2014 then. I was driving the US when the spring/summer thaw started in 2010. I was literally about a day ahead of interstates being closed because of washouts in Utah, Colorado, and Kansas when we were driving back home.

Quoting 1022. Bluestorm5:


53% in 2009? That's the last "fun" winter for everybody in North Carolina. Promising start to winter :)

We're not that lucky. The pattern will probably switch after Christmas and bring us blazing warmth like the past two winters have. -.-
6.3" in my backyard per the Joe Shmoe method...Lol
First model suggesting major snowstorm in North Carolina from 12z Euro. I've been seeing multiple low pressures from most models last few runs for December 16th or so including what look like a possible nor'easter forming off coast of Carolina. 12z GFS said no snow, but do have a nor'easter forming around the same time.



Quoting 1025. TropicalAnalystwx13:

We're not that lucky. The pattern will probably switch after Christmas and bring us blazing warmth like the past two winters have. -.-
-_- Asheville really need snow from what people told me. People here is having major snow depression :(
1029. Dakster
Quoting 1026. wxgeek723:
6.3" in my backyard per the Joe Shmoe method...Lol


Washi you should go to WxGeek's backyard and he can give you the 6" you want.
Quoting 1022. Bluestorm5:


53% in 2009? That's the last "fun" winter for everybody in North Carolina. Promising start to winter :)

That was the last fun winter for me too!
6" on the ground now
1031. hydrus
Quoting 1030. Doppler22:

That was the last fun winter for me too!
6" on the ground now
Big forecast bust went your way :)
Quoting 1027. Bluestorm5:
First model suggesting major snowstorm in North Carolina from 12z Euro. I've been seeing multiple low pressures from most models last few runs for December 16th or so including what look like a possible nor'easter forming off coast of Carolina. 12z GFS said no snow, but do have a nor'easter forming around the same time.




The snow accumulation line stops right at my county, go figure.
I already doubled the biggest snow storm I got last year :p
1035. hydrus
Many folks could do without this.
FOX reporter just had a referee measure the snow on the field in Philadelphia. 6 inches.

Quoting 1033. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The snow accumulation line stops right at my county, go figure.
Meanwhile, Euro got 7" for my area.

Quoting 1035. hydrus:
Many folks could do without this.


GFS 12Z RUN HR 168

Classic snow setup for Eastern NC. The cold is there for few days. Precipitation is there. Low pressure off coast of NC is there. I'm praying so hard for Euro to stick with it and GFS join in (currently too warm).





1039. hydrus
1040. ncstorm
wow..is anyone watching Detroit vs Lions on Fox playing in 6 inches of snow..now that is FOOTBALL!!
1041. ncstorm
I got a ipad air on Thursday. It's vary nic. If any one looking for a ipad for Xmas. Then the ipad air may be some in you want two look in two they are nic
Quoting 1040. ncstorm:
wow..is anyone watching Detroit vs Lions on Fox playing in 6 inches of snow..now that is FOOTBALL!!
I am!
Who knew, Dolphins like snow, 17-7 Miami....
Touchdown Detroit!
And the player celebrates flat on his back making a snow angel, lol!
1046. Dakster
Quoting 1042. Tazmanian:
I got a ipad air on Thursday. It's vary nic. If any one looking for a ipad for Xmas. Then the ipad air may be some in you want two look in two they are nic


Are you using it to blog?
1047. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Classic snow setup for Eastern NC. The cold is there for few days. Precipitation is there. Low pressure off coast of NC is there. I'm praying so hard for Euro to stick with it and GFS join in (currently too warm).






{Sigh} Noting happening in central and south Alabama. It's nice and warm again, 71 degrees, with a dewpoint of 66. Still overcast and gloomy, and the Gulf moisture fetch is completely bypassing us. We still have this amazing temperature differential, with Decatur and Huntsville at 41 and 43 respectively, and they are getting the rain. The good thing for Alabama is that this Gulf air is keeping temperature above freezing, so we haven't had the ice and sleet that has been such a problem further north. We've now had a cold front, warm front, another cold front, and now another warm front pass through, and I have a grand total of .04" of precip to show for us. My solar lights only stay on for an hour because we haven't had a sunny day in over a week. I'm starting to get a little irritated with this weather.
1048. sar2401
Quoting Dakster:


Both teams should get extra points just for playing.

Nah. This is just snow. Look up the Ice Bowl if you want to see how real football is played. I went to many Browns games when I was a kid where it was snowing so hard that you couldn't see the field. We always bought along a transistor radio so we could at least hear what was happening. There were some games where my coat froze to the seat, and ushers carried ice scrapers to help get fans unstuck from their seats. At least there are few stadiums left where being a fan separates the men from the boys. :-)
Quoting 1046. Dakster:


Are you using it to blog?



Yes. I use the ipad. Air a lot when I am in. Bed. And watching you tub video
11C or 52F here in N-Wales, quite strong SW-winds, but mild air from the Atlantic. It almost felt springlike when I went for a 2h run this morning. Remember, I'm at 53.4N!

In contrast, It's amazing to see the conditions on some of the NFL fields tonight. Wow! That's a hell of a snow storm and they are still playing. Insane.

PS: and a great cheer for the reappearance of Grothar! I was quite worried because I haven't seen you on the blog for a long time, so I'm glad to see you back here. I hope you're feeling better and I also hope to see you here every now and then.
Quoting 1033. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The snow accumulation line stops right at my county, go figure.


I believe you are on the "naughty" list this year Cods.
Tsk-tsk.
1052. JNTenne
Quoting 1049. Tazmanian:



Yes. I use the ipad. Air a lot when I am in. Bed. And watching you tub video
too much information Taz.... :)
Quoting 1013. PensacolaDoug:
Dolphins-Steelers, snowing to beat the band!


How exactly does one beat the band, and what does it have to do with snow?
Quoting 1040. ncstorm:
wow..is anyone watching Detroit vs Lions on Fox playing in 6 inches of snow..now that is FOOTBALL!!


Detroit is playing themselves? lol
Quoting 1055. Bluestorm5:









LOL
Quoting 1052. JNTenne:
too much information Taz.... :)


Lol
1058. Dakster
Quoting 1048. sar2401:

Nah. This is just snow. Look up the Ice Bowl if you want to see how real football is played. I went to many Browns games when I was a kid where it was snowing so hard that you couldn't see the field. We always bought along a transistor radio so we could at least hear what was happening. There were some games where my coat froze to the seat, and ushers carried ice scrapers to help get fans unstuck from their seats. At least there are few stadiums left where being a fan separates the men from the boys. :-)


A lot of stadiums are domed for the new generation of "fan".
1059. Dakster
Quoting 1049. Tazmanian:



Yes. I use the ipad. Air a lot when I am in. Bed. And watching you tub video


I would think that would irritate Ms. Tazmanian...
Yes us in Oregon got hit with artic blast early this year and colder
Quoting 1018. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Snow covers 50.8% of the United States today (12-8). Compare this to 13.8% in '12, 37.3% in '11, 37.7% in '10, 53.4% in '09, 26.3% in '08, and 48.3% in '07.


And it's 84F in Florida, typical. It seems while everyone else is getting a promising winter, I'm stuck with summer weather. I understand that it's Florida, but c'mon, give us some 40s for lows at least.
Quoting 1053. Jedkins01:


How exactly does one beat the band, and what does it have to do with snow?


It's snowing cats and dogs. Oh, that only goes with raining.
Quoting 1061. CybrTeddy:


And it's 84F in Florida, typical. It seems while everyone else is getting a promising winter, I'm stuck with summer weather. I understand that it's Florida, but c'mon, give us some 40s for lows at least.


Every time I've been to Florida in the late fall/early winter, it has been around 32. Buy me a plane ticket, and a warm water pool and I'll come down again.
Freezing rain and 31 degrees in Washington D.C.
Soon to be all rain
Quoting 1064. Sfloridacat5:
Freezing rain and 31 degrees in Washington D.C.
Soon to be all rain
wash it all away
1066. Dakster
Quoting 1064. Sfloridacat5:
Freezing rain and 31 degrees in Washington D.C.
Soon to be all rain


Poor Washi....
Quoting 1061. CybrTeddy:


And it's 84F in Florida, typical. It seems while everyone else is getting a promising winter, I'm stuck with summer weather. I understand that it's Florida, but c'mon, give us some 40s for lows at least.
taking the fans out for maintenance maybe on the restart it will make it all the way too south fla
Quoting 1054. Jedkins01:


Detroit is playing themselves? lol

Well they are beating themselves.
NAM 18Z HR 72

Quoting 1061. CybrTeddy:


And it's 84F in Florida, typical. It seems while everyone else is getting a promising winter, I'm stuck with summer weather. I understand that it's Florida, but c'mon, give us some 40s for lows at least.


move to Minot ND then where its 1 right now
Dry slot in NJ better start filling in soon. Ugh. Meanwhile check out the snowfall rates down by Atlantic City:


The following are unofficial observations taken during the past 9
hours for the storm that has been affecting our region. Appreciation
is extended to Highway departments... cooperative observers... Skywarn
spotters and media for these reports. This summary is also available
on our home Page at weather.Gov/phi

********************storm total snowfall********************

Location storm total time/date comments
snowfall of
/inches/ measurement

Delaware

... Anz430...
4 SSW New Castle 6.4 200 PM 12/08 4 hour accumulation

... New Castle County...
Newark 11.3 401 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Wilmington 8.5 330 PM 12/08 co-op observer
N Wilmington 8.3 323 PM 12/08 public
Hyde Park 7.0 357 PM 12/08 public
Glasgow 6.2 300 PM 12/08 deos
White Clay creek 6.1 300 PM 12/08 deos
Hockessin 6.0 300 PM 12/08 deos
Wilmington Airport 6.0 154 PM 12/08 co-op observer
Claymont 6.0 300 PM 12/08 deos
Greenville 5.9 300 PM 12/08 deos
1 ESE Talley Brook 5.5 300 PM 12/08 deos
Prices Corner 5.3 300 PM 12/08 deos
Middletown 2.8 200 PM 12/08 trained spotter

Maryland

... Cecil County...
North East 9.5 330 PM 12/08 public
Perryville 8.0 358 PM 12/08 public
Elkton 7.5 233 PM 12/08 public
Colora 6.0 332 PM 12/08 public
Newark 3.0 1200 PM 12/08 public

... Queen Anne's County...
Cloverfields T 1030 am 12/08 trained spotter

New Jersey

... Atlantic County...
Mays Landing 3.5 332 PM 12/08 public
Pleasantville 0.3 138 PM 12/08 co-op observer
Atlantic City airpor 0.3 137 PM 12/08 ASOS

... Burlington County...
Medford 9.4 339 PM 12/08 public
Vincentown 9.0 402 PM 12/08 public
Browns Mills 8.0 339 PM 12/08 public
Marlton 8.0 348 PM 12/08 public
Shamong TWP 6.4 349 PM 12/08 public
Washington TWP 6.0 217 PM 12/08 public
Moorestown 5.8 300 PM 12/08 public
Mount Laurel 5.8 352 PM 12/08 NWS employee
Maple Shade 5.5 234 PM 12/08 public
Hainesport 5.0 334 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Delran TWP 4.2 315 PM 12/08 NWS employee
Bordentown 3.2 347 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Southampton TWP 3.0 1253 PM 12/08 public
chesterfild TWP 2.5 333 PM 12/08 public

... Camden County...
Lindenwold 8.5 403 PM 12/08 NWS employee
Laurel Springs 8.3 352 PM 12/08 public
Point of Woods 8.0 255 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Cherry Hill 8.0 401 PM 12/08 public
Barrington 7.0 334 PM 12/08 public
West Berlin 6.5 400 PM 12/08 public
East Camden 6.0 335 PM 12/08 public
Blackwood 6.0 145 PM 12/08 Emergency Mngr
Collingswood 6.0 400 PM 12/08 public
Somerdale 5.3 220 PM 12/08 co-op observer
Runnemede 4.0 1235 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Erial 3.5 100 PM 12/08 trained spotter

... Cape May County...
Cape May Court House 1.0 348 PM 12/08 public
North Cape May 0.3 211 PM 12/08 trained spotter

... Cumberland County...
Vineland 3.0 403 PM 12/08 trained spotter

... Gloucester County...
Mantua 8.3 327 PM 12/08 public
Sewell 7.3 315 PM 12/08 trained spotter
West Deptford TWP 7.0 335 PM 12/08 public
East Greenwich TWP 7.0 339 PM 12/08 public
Woodbury 7.0 230 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Thorofare 6.0 338 PM 12/08 public
Westville 5.9 229 PM 12/08 public
Williamstown 5.5 333 PM 12/08 public

... Hunterdon County...
Lambertville 2.0 357 PM 12/08 public

... Mercer County...
Trenton 2.3 357 PM 12/08 trained spotter
White Horse 2.0 359 PM 12/08 public
Ewing 1.2 300 PM 12/08 NWS employee

... Monmouth County...
wall TWP 2.5 356 PM 12/08 public
Oakhurst 1.5 303 PM 12/08 public

... Ocean County...
Toms River 8.0 346 PM 12/08 public
3 WSW Toms River 8.0 340 PM 12/08 cocorahs
N Toms River 7.5 344 PM 12/08 public
Bayville 7.0 400 PM 12/08 public
Lacey 6.5 359 PM 12/08 public
Manahawkin 5.0 327 PM 12/08 public
brick TWP 4.5 349 PM 12/08 public
Manchester TWP 4.0 334 PM 12/08 public
Plumstead TWP 3.0 334 PM 12/08 public
Surf City 2.3 300 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Beachwood 1.0 1220 PM 12/08 light to moderate snow

... Salem County...
Penns Grove 11.0 359 PM 12/08 public
Carneys Point 6.0 155 PM 12/08 trained spotter
upper Pittsgrove TWP 6.0 353 PM 12/08 public
Salem 3.0 207 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Monroeville 2.0 1232 PM 12/08 trained spotter

Pennsylvania

... Chester County...
West Grove 6.5 343 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Nottingham 5.5 310 PM 12/08 deos
Mendenhall 5.5 207 PM 12/08 public
West Chester 3.9 310 PM 12/08 deos
Atglen 3.2 311 PM 12/08 deos
Coatesville 3.0 337 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Exton 2.8 230 PM 12/08 trained spotter
East Nantmeal 2.3 323 PM 12/08 public
1 E Downingtown 1.0 1230 PM 12/08 public

... Delaware County...
Aldan 8.0 335 PM 12/08 public
Essington 7.0 352 PM 12/08 public
Garnet Valley 7.0 145 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Brookhaven 7.0 346 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Norwood 6.5 330 PM 12/08 public
Aston arms 6.0 132 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Drexel Hill 5.5 352 PM 12/08 public
Chester Heights 5.2 332 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Glen Mills 4.0 138 PM 12/08 public

... Montgomery County...
King of Prussia 3.0 338 PM 12/08 public
Wynnewood 2.8 200 PM 12/08 public
Fort Washington 2.5 333 PM 12/08 trained spotter
Willow Grove 1.8 336 PM 12/08 public

... Philadelphia County...
Philadelphia center 5.5 354 PM 12/08 public
Philadelphia 4.3 333 PM 12/08 public
Philadelphia oem 4.2 305 PM 12/08 Emergency Mngr
Philadelphia fire 53 4.0 128 PM 12/08 Fire Dept/Rescue
Philadelphia Intl Ai 3.2 136 PM 12/08 ASOS
Philadelphia fire 78 3.0 116 PM 12/08 Fire Dept/Rescue
Philadelphia fire 33 1.0 127 PM 12/08 Fire Dept/Rescue
Quoting 994. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Overperforming snowstorm is overperforming.


Should this over preform for everybody expected to be effected?
Quoting 1066. Dakster:


Poor Washi....


Washi, just come up I-95 to philly, we got all the snow you need
Quoting 1062. Sfloridacat5:


It's snowing cats and dogs. Oh, that only goes with raining.
So right.... you get snow bunnies and snow leopards along with your snow ...
Now we got SLEET BOWL in Baltimore with Ravens/Vikings
Currently 81 at our airport... feels a bit cooler at my house, but quite "wunder"-ful.... lol...

Still, we can't expect anything below 70 tonight... so still above average here.
Note this is for Phiily, south of me; but still overperforming storm compared to what was predicted this morning

... Winter Storm Warning remains in effect until midnight EST
tonight...

* snow and sleet accumulations... 5 to 12 inches.

* Ice accumulations... around a trace.

* Timing... periods of snow will mix with sleet late this afternoon
and evening. The precipitation will then change to rain during
the night. There should be some freezing rain for a brief time
during the transition period this evening.

* Impacts... hazardous travel due to snow covered and slippery
roads.

* Visibilities... less than one mile at times into this evening.

* Temperatures... in the upper 20s to lower 30s, then slowly
rising tonight.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A Winter Storm Warning means significant amounts of snow, sleet
and ice are expected or occurring. This will make travel very
hazardous or impossible.
1082. Dakster
Quoting 1079. BahaHurican:
Currently 81 at our airport... feels a bit cooler at my house, but quite "wunder"-ful.... lol...

Still, we can't expect anything below 70 tonight... so still above average here.


I do have one complaint. The ocean temps are a little too cold for a comfortable swim for me...
1083. beell
Guess you have to be pretty smart to figure out where Winter Storm Cleon ended and Winter Storm Dion began.
It's snowing very hard east of Baltimore. Up to 50 dBZ on radar near Middleton.

Quoting 1084. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's snowing very hard east of Baltimore. Up to 50 dBZ on radar.

That might be sleet, though. It was sleeting HARD at end of Ravens/Vikings game on TV.


We have ULL or Vaguada and high surf seas... mostly on the northen shore....

Oh my... That Ravens game ending nearly killed me. I won't have a voice tomorrow :p it is now a wintry mix outside so the total if 6" stands.
Supposed to start snowing at about 8 pm here. About 80 miles NW of NYC. Do you guys think the storm will over preform here?
Dolphins! 34 Steelers 28 Final
Freezing rain and fog here, temp up to 31. We had some moderate snow bands earlier but it never got super heavy. About 2-2.5" on the ground.
Quoting 1088. Hurricane614:
Supposed to start snowing at about 8 pm here. About 80 miles NW of NYC. Do you guys think the storm will over preform here?


Are you at sea level in the Hudson valley or up in hills?
Quoting 1091. BaltimoreBrian:


Are you at sea level in the Hudson valley or up in hills?


About half way in between sea level and the hilltop.
Quoting 1068. TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is why you don't drive in a snowstorm.


Driving from Houston to College Station last night in freezing drizzle was terrible enough...
sunlinepr 1086 that first picture looks like something from Jupiter!
Quoting 1084. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's snowing very hard east of Baltimore. Up to 50 dBZ on radar near Middleton.




Yikes, that's excessively strong for snowfall.
New highest snowfall total -- 11.3" in Newark, Delaware.

NEWARK 11.3 401 PM 12/08 TRAINED SPOTTER
Quoting 1085. Bluestorm5:
That might be sleet, though. It was sleeting HARD at end of Ravens/Vikings game on TV.

Should be just snow. Temperatures are in the mid- to upper 20s.
Maryland snow reports. 8" is the heaviest so far-near Carrollton, MD.
Quoting 1094. BaltimoreBrian:
sunlinepr 1086 that first picture looks like something from Jupiter!


Looks like Jupiter's perpetual hurricane... But What We have mostly cloudy skies....

Very interesting that the ULL is moving West while most of the surroundings are moving East... carrying a dry air pocket in front (Black area)

Right entrance region of a stout upper jet streak looks like it's greatly contributing to NEUS precip today.

Quoting 1084. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It's snowing very hard east of Baltimore. Up to 50 dBZ on radar near Middleton.



Some of that could be a sleet signature.
Quoting 1096. TropicalAnalystwx13:
New highest snowfall total -- 11.3" in Newark, Delaware.

NEWARK 11.3 401 PM 12/08 TRAINED SPOTTER


I wonder what the forecast for Newark DE was this morning.
Heard from a friend of mine saying the he has watched a pileup of cars keep building up to 12 cars. A cop car came to close the road but his car slid into the pileup as well
Quoting 1097. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Should be just snow. Temperatures are in the mid- to upper 20s.

Probably, but there is a great deal of warm advection above the boundary layer. While it is helping supply lots of moisture, it is possible that a warm nose aloft is working into some of the southern areas such as Baltimore.

Quoting 1097. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Should be just snow. Temperatures are in the mid- to upper 20s.


Dual-pol is showing melting layer about 5,000-10,000 feet up.



EDIT: I found GR2A deep in computer last night, so I didn't lose it. Got to redo the settings again, though.
Quoting 1082. Dakster:


I do have one complaint. The ocean temps are a little too cold for a comfortable swim for me...
Round here we pretty much quit swimming in October and don't start up again until after Easter.... lol ...
Quoting 1107. Bluestorm5:


Dual-pol is showing melting layer about 5,000-10,000 feet up.



A few days ago areas of Southern Oklahoma were getting freezing rain with 24 - 26 degrees.
Quoting 1106. 1900hurricane:

Probably, but there is a great deal of warm advection above the boundary layer. While it is helping supply lots of moisture, it is possible that a warm nose aloft is working into some of the southern areas such as Baltimore.


RAP analyzed sounding from 20z shows enough of a warm nose at around the 700mb level for some sleet in the Baltimore area.
Quoting 1106. 1900hurricane:

Probably, but there is a great deal of warm advection above the boundary layer. While it is helping supply lots of moisture, it is possible that a warm nose aloft is working into some of the southern areas such as Baltimore.


I wouldn't be surprised, Baltimore is south and west of Middleton. I don't think the warm air has advected quite that far north yet, though it should over the following hours.
The ground truth in the Inner Harbor, Baltimore is light freezing rain/drizzle and fog.
Quoting 1103. BaltimoreBrian:


I wonder what the forecast for Newark DE was this morning.


Probably 1-2" of snow.
Quoting 1071. Tazmanian:


move to Minot ND then where its 1 right now


That's arguably better than what Florida experiences. I'll admit, Florida's winters certainly are tame compared to what Minot, ND may be experiencing, but Florida (especially northern and central) has its own unique aspect about its winters that can be as bad - the constant temperature variation.

For people up north, and I can attest to this because I used to live in the NE, it just stays cold throughout the winter and your body is allowed to adjust to it. Here in Florida, one day the temperatures in January can be 80-81F, the next day a cold front comes in and drops the temperatures in the night 30-31F. That's a 60F change in weather in the course of 24 hours, and it's like that all winter. The body simply can't adjust to that! It drives my allergies mad too, I'm always sick as could be in warm winters.
I grew up in the Washinton D.C. area (born in D.C.) and then we moved to the Mount Vernon Va. region.

The morning forecast would be 30% chance of snow flurries. Then by about 10-11 am schools are letting out early and we end up with 6"+ of snow.
I loved those days.

And there were those days when there was a 100% chance of snow (heavy snow advisory) expecting 4"+ and we never see a flake. I hated those days.

So....the NAM was right?

Why do I live in a snowless state...

I had a breezy and miserable 42F rain and drizzly day.
The temperature has fallen as the sun sets from 31.5 to 30.2 at my outdoor thermometer. Just freezing drizzle now.
Well the snow ended. I wish that there would be no ice or rain tomorrow just snow. Oh well. With 6" when they predicted 3", I can't complain :)
Quoting 1118. wxgeek723:
So....the NAM was right?



Sort of, that is showing 6-8" for NYC.
Completely off the topic of winter weather, I think it's worth noting that this year's pattern actually could have favored a major United States landfall. Though something forming in the western Gulf would be shunted into Texas or Mexico, and though something north of the Caribbean would be sent out to sea, if something happened to form in the West Caribbean (near where Karen began) and intensified quickly, it would've likely been pulled northeast into Florida by the persistent trough over the Northeast.

But....nothing significant ever formed. So we're at 2,967 days (8.1 years) and counting.

1125. hydrus
Severe weather is possible with the next system.
South East radar..
Quoting 1125. hydrus:
Severe weather is possible with the next system.
South East radar..
shows up at hr 144 onward


GFS 18Z RUN HR 144
1129. hydrus
Quoting 1125. hydrus:
Severe weather is possible with the next system.
South East radar..

Pretty decent southern stream disturbance as currently modeled. I'm keeping a lazy eye on it, but I'm not sure how well surface temps and moisture is going to rebound by then, at least for my area.

1131. VR46L
Quoting 1129. hydrus:


That Feature will create all sorts of havoc in the mid atlantic after todays bust forecast ... Thats the snow maker they were waiting on not todays strange snow fall!
building deep cold at the end of run
up over nw north America
18z gfs final
1133. hydrus
Quoting 1128. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
shows up at hr 144 onward


GFS 18Z RUN HR 144
It is a guess, but I see wind a wind event with this next system. Especially if it goes negative. Notice the windspeed at 850 MB,s
Quoting 1133. hydrus:
It is a guess, but I see wind a wind event with this next system. Especially if it goes negative. Notice the windspeed at 850 MB,s
sooner or later some thing is gonna kick up

see what the models do and show over coming days I guess
All right folks flakes are flying.
Any long-range models showing cold air coming down to south Florida?
D.C is now under a winter storm warning.But what I really wanted to see was snow.They expect quite a bit of ice over night.
Quoting 1137. GeoffreyWPB:
Any long-range models showing cold air coming down to south Florida?
give me a couple of days with the models first

but its looks to be showing a reinforcement building way up in the nw NA getting ready to herald in the start of winter

the question is does it drop down stay tune for as the models turns
Quoting 1138. washingtonian115:
D.C is now under a winter storm warning.But what I really wanted to see was snow.They expect quite a bit of ice over night.


To think not too far to your north there is nearly a foot :(

I have ~8 inches.
1141. hydrus
Quoting 1134. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
sooner or later some thing is gonna kick up

see what the models do and show over coming days I guess
Return flow looks rather impressive. Good ole TN would get in on the rough weather if it does pan out.
Quoting 1140. wxgeek723:


To think not too far to your north there is nearly a foot :(

I have ~8 inches.
My neighbor and I picked up a solid 3 inches.Looks that way at the other homes as well.In downtown D.C near R.N.A they picked up 1.5.
Quoting 1141. hydrus:
Return flow looks rather impressive. Good ole TN would get in on the rough weather if it does pan out.


looks like the strongest reflection is at hr 156

Quoting 1137. GeoffreyWPB:
Any long-range models showing cold air coming down to south Florida?


ECMWF is showing cold air by December 18th

Quoting 1138. washingtonian115:
D.C is now under a winter storm warning.But what I really wanted to see was snow.They expect quite a bit of ice over night.


I'm just happy I'm home. The stuck cars and accidents I've seen scare me.

We also got 3-4 inches here in SW Baltimore. Surprised that the Winter Storm Warning was expanded so late.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MADI (BOB08-2013)
23:30 PM IST December 8 2013
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, the very severe cyclonic storm MADI over southwest Bay of Bengal moved slightly northward and now lays center near 13.4N 84.7E, about 490 km east of Chennai and 650 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

It would weaken gradually from tomorrow and move northwards slowly for 36 hrs and then west southwestward.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the area between 11.0N to 18.0N and west of 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 986 hPa.

The buoy located near 13.4N 84.0E reported at 1800 UTC of December 8th 2013 wind 49 knots. Another buoy located near latitude 14.0N 87.0E reported mean sea level pressure of 1004.8 hPa and wind of 21 knots.

The severe cyclonic storm lies close to the upper tropospheric steering ridge, which runs along 12.0N. It is leading to slow nearly northward movement. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity and upper level divergence remained same during past six hours. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. The ocean thermal energy is about 50-70 kj/cm2 around system center. It is relatively less (<50 kj/cm2) over central Bay of Bengal, to the north of system center. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate (15-25 knots) around system center. It is high to the north of 13.0N. Hence as the system would move northward, it would experience relatively colder water and high vertical wind shear. Total precipitable water imagery animation also indicates beginning of entrainment of cold and dry air into the southern periphery of cyclone. Further very slow movement of the system will help in cooling of sea surface due to upwelling. All these are expected to weaken the system after 12 hours. With possible weakening of the system the lower and middle tropospheric winds would steer the system leading to restriction of further northward movement and cause west southwestward movement. The current forecast is based on consensus numerical weather prediction guidance and synoptic analysis.

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
12 HRS 14.1N 84.7E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 14.6NN 84.7E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 14.6N 84.2E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 14.0N 83.4E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
Quoting 1145. weatherbow:


I'm just happy I'm home. The stuck cars and accidents I've seen scare me.

We also got 3-4 inches here in SW Baltimore. Surprised that the Winter Storm Warning was expanded so late.


accidents winter's nasty side
all peeps got to do is
slow down arrive alive
Quoting 1122. Doppler22:
Well the snow ended. I wish that there would be no ice or rain tomorrow just snow. Oh well. With 6" when they predicted 3", I can't complain :)


The snow has been done here for a good 3 hours or so now. It's been all ice, and we're expecting ANOTHER tenth to quarter inch of it or more...
Quoting 1145. weatherbow:


I'm just happy I'm home. The stuck cars and accidents I've seen scare me.

We also got 3-4 inches here in SW Baltimore. Surprised that the Winter Storm Warning was expanded so late.
It should have been expanded for citites north and east as well.they did it for just north and west.I'm not surprised D.C joined the winter storm warning bandwagon late because we barely got anything.
Quoting 1138. washingtonian115:
D.C is now under a winter storm warning.But what I really wanted to see was snow.They expect quite a bit of ice over night.
Send that up here to me please...
Quoting 1150. interstatelover7166:
Send that up here to me please...


i dont think you want a ice storm
1152. hydrus

A lot of snow for early December.
1153. hydrus
Wet and cold here tonight.
Quoting 1149. washingtonian115:
It should have been expanded for citites north and east as well.they did it for just north and west.I'm not surprised D.C joined the winter storm warning bandwagon late because we barely got anything.


That burst of snow was something I didn't even expect. I remember one minute it was cloudy and the next it was a whiteout!

But it really should have been expanded a long while ago, and a Winter Storm Warning should have been issued for South Central Pennsylvania. I know someone who got 9" in York County!
1155. barbamz

"Nice" and somehow inverted jet stream you got for sure at the East Coast (Source). Instead weather in Western Europe will be boring and uneventful for the next days and maybe more ... Good night everybody.


ECMWF for Tuesday (here more)
You see, one side of the hemisphere lop-sided too cold, the other one ...

Worldwide temperatures: Deviation from average (click "Animation" to see the forecast for the next week).
Quoting 1154. weatherbow:


That burst of snow was something I didn't even expect. I remember one minute it was cloudy and the next it was a whiteout!

But it really should have been expanded a long while ago, and a Winter Storm Warning should have been issued for South Central Pennsylvania. I know someone who got 9" in York County!


There wasn't any reason to do so. Not much was in favor of this outburst. Calm down, lol. I shall suggest for everyone to go pay Blizzard92's blog a visit.
Premier Northeast weather blog on WU
I shall also suggest you and everyone else who's griping look at comment #113.

Be glad you got an outburst of snow. From what I've heard, a good portion of y'all have been missing out of snow the last few years as has the South down here.
1157. pottery
Quoting Tazmanian:


i dont think you want a ice storm

I certainly do not !

:):))

Hello Taz.
Quoting 1156. Astrometeor:


There wasn't any reason to do so. Not much was in favor of this outburst. Calm down, lol. I shall suggest for everyone to go pay Blizzard92's blog a visit.
Premier Northeast weather blog on WU
I shall also suggest you and everyone else who's griping look at comment #113.

Be glad you got an outburst of snow. From what I've heard, a good portion of y'all have been missing out of snow the last few years as has the South down here.


We haven't got anything more than two inches in 3 years.
1159. hydrus
Quoting 1157. pottery:

I certainly do not !

:):))

Hello Taz.
Good evening Pott. If a strong cold front comes into your region, remember to cover all sensitive plants....
Quoting 1143. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


looks like the strongest reflection is at hr 156


Looks like it could be wet, but as modeled this run, that doesn't look like severe convection. Return flow is decent by then, but has alot of work to juice up the low levels following this week's cold front. Matched with marginal lapse rates (as the mid-level disturbance goes positive) and a nighttime environment, it doesn't look like there is much of a severe threat this model run.
1161. barbamz
Last nice thing: A German guy living in the Canaries and running a blog about volcanoes says that a German with the name Xaver currently is on vacation nearby, and this man was the one who named windstorm Xaver for 199 Euros - many months earlier of course, and this man Xaver of course couldn't know back then that the low he christianed would become a bad storm. World is a village, lol ...
On December 8, 1917...
Dover sets a station record with an even foot of snow.

On December 8, 1978...
Nashville records greatest one-day rainfall for December, with 4.46".
1163. hydrus
Quoting 1160. 1900hurricane:

Looks like it could be wet, but as modeled this run, that doesn't look like severe convection. Return flow is decent by then, but has alot of work to juice up the low levels following this week's cold front. Matched with marginal lapse rates (as the mid-level disturbance goes positive) and a nighttime environment, it doesn't look like there is much of a severe threat this model run.
I was thinking more of a wind event. The system will be moving fast. If there is a squall line, the air at the surface could get shoved ahead of the line, increasing wind speeds and gusts..
1164. pottery
Quoting hydrus:
Good evening Pott. If a strong cold front comes into your region, remember to cover all sensitive plants....

Or harvest them…..

See you guys tomorrow.
Stay safe.
Quoting 1163. hydrus:
I was thinking more of a wind event. The system will be moving fast. If there is a squall line, the air at the surface could get shoved ahead of the line, increasing wind speeds and gusts..

Even for a severe wind event, surface based convection is needed in order to mix stronger winds aloft down to the surface through thunderstorm downdrafts. A drier layer is also often important so evaporative cooling can accelerate air parcels downwards. 18Z GFS shows neither.

The biggest question now is when will the freezing rain/icing end for me. Any ideas on when you guys think The York area will turn to rain?
Quoting 1167. Doppler22:
The biggest question now is when will the freezing rain/icing end for me. Any ideas on when you guys think The York area will turn to rain?


A few hours after you join chat would be my guess.
Quoting 1144. Bluestorm5:


ECMWF is showing cold air by December 18th



Given the nature of large scale weather patterns to behave in a wave pattern, oscillating + or - about an axis, I would think that persistent warm weather in the southeast for this first half of December will likely be replaced by a colder weather pattern by the late in the month, hopefully just in time for Christmas.

Sure, its far from guaranteed, but large scale patterns do behave that way, so I suspect there is a at least some shot that colder weather will be around for Christmas this year.
Quoting 1169. Jedkins01:


Given the nature of large scale weather patterns to behave in a wave pattern, oscillating + or - about an axis, I would think that persistent warm weather in the southeast for this first half of December will likely be replaced by a colder weather pattern by the late in the month, hopefully just in time for Christmas.

Sure, its far from guaranteed, but large scale patterns do behave that way, so I suspect there is a at least some shot that colder weather will be around for Christmas this year.


something big will happen
to sweep everything out and in

not a matter of if but when

Quoting 1167. Doppler22:
The biggest question now is when will the freezing rain/icing end for me. Any ideas on when you guys think The York area will turn to rain?


The NWS is saying that Baltimore and Washington will now turn to all rain mid-morning tomorrow as per the latest Winter Storm Warning update, so you'll probably be later.
Final snow total for me tonight is an even 6.0 Inches. Truly was a nice surprise.
Quoting 1156. Astrometeor:


There wasn't any reason to do so. Not much was in favor of this outburst. Calm down, lol. I shall suggest for everyone to go pay Blizzard92's blog a visit.
Premier Northeast weather blog on WU
I shall also suggest you and everyone else who's griping look at comment #113.

Be glad you got an outburst of snow. From what I've heard, a good portion of y'all have been missing out of snow the last few years as has the South down here.


Sorry, I just love the snow :)

And yes, we have missed out big the last few years here. We haven't had anything big since 2010.
Quoting 1144. Bluestorm5:


ECMWF is showing cold air by December 18th



1176. aquak9
Quoting 1169. Jedkins01:


Given the nature of large scale weather patterns to behave in a wave pattern, oscillating + or - about an axis, I would think that persistent warm weather in the southeast for this first half of December will likely be replaced by a colder weather pattern by the late in the month, hopefully just in time for Christmas.

Sure, its far from guaranteed, but large scale patterns do behave that way, so I suspect there is a at least some shot that colder weather will be around for Christmas this year.


yo jed- you're at FSU, right? I'm hopin' for ya'll to get to Pasadena. There's some weather, there ya go, there ya go!
1177. GatorWX
Pat, big game! Who would have guessed? Nasty snowy madness in Baltimore and Philly. Fun NFL day with the snow and widespread too. Loved it!

Also, nice to see ya Gro!

Enjoy the evening everyone.
1178. Patrap
Is that our tree, Clark ?

Quoting 1169. Jedkins01:


Given the nature of large scale weather patterns to behave in a wave pattern, oscillating + or - about an axis, I would think that persistent warm weather in the southeast for this first half of December will likely be replaced by a colder weather pattern by the late in the month, hopefully just in time for Christmas.

Sure, its far from guaranteed, but large scale patterns do behave that way, so I suspect there is a at least some shot that colder weather will be around for Christmas this year.


Yeah. GFS isn't on board with weather THAT cold. There's a system that could either becoming heavy rain event or major snowstorm for us in Eastern USA.

Euro want snow. GFS like heavy rain due to warmth.
1180. Dakster
Patrap - You always stand ready for the movie parody..
1181. GatorWX
Florida... :)




Cause we got it like that!
1182. Dakster
Gator I noticed an interesting thing about that map.

I am in the warmest spot in the US.
1183. aquak9
gatorwx- it ain't no fun makin' peanut brittle when you're breakin' temp records for three days in a row.
Today Low 41.8 and High 55.4 currently 51.5
Florida low are warmer than my Highs. Boo-Hoo.....LOL
1185. aquak9
Quoting 1182. Dakster:
Gator I noticed an interesting thing about that map.

I am in the warmest spot in the US.


you weren't in my kitchen....
Quoting 1168. Astrometeor:


A few hours after you join chat would be my guess.

Wish I could, I am currently away and on my phone so chat will not work. Sorry

And thanks Weatherbow for your input
Quoting 1001. wxgeek723:
Philadelphia International Airport ground stop
Went out at 11:20 AM today to make a run to the grocery store, trusting the winter weather advisory that said it would kick in about 2pm. On the way to the train there were flurries.20 minutes later when I got off the train there was a light snow.By the time I got out of the store there was a light coating on the sidewalks, quite slippery but no mishaps walking to the bus.By the time I got back to my neighborhood, there was an inch of snow. Actually was better traction for walking.Eagles game was pretty wild and entertaining. They had a good half-foot of snow where less than an inch was forecast. Oops.
1188. hydrus
Quoting 1165. 1900hurricane:

Even for a severe wind event, surface based convection is needed in order to mix stronger winds aloft down to the surface through thunderstorm downdrafts. A drier layer is also often important so evaporative cooling can accelerate air parcels downwards. 18Z GFS shows neither.

This is not always true. If the low is deep enough, the gradient wind alone can cause problems. We here on the plateau are up a ways, and even high based storms ( which we get here quite often ) will throw down some powerful gusts, and a deepening low will increase these gusts.
Quoting 1154. weatherbow:


That burst of snow was something I didn't even expect. I remember one minute it was cloudy and the next it was a whiteout!

But it really should have been expanded a long while ago, and a Winter Storm Warning should have been issued for South Central Pennsylvania. I know someone who got 9" in York County!
They did issue a Winter Storm Warning for the Philly area for 5-9 inches.
1190. hydrus
1191. GatorWX
I'm actually quite over this heatwave. It's nice have some seasonal variation. So far...not so much. Cooled off for one day, Thanksgiving. Oh well, maybe Christmas.

Turn down the ac aquak. Mine has been off for maybe 48 hours so far this winter. Yeah I know... Dec 20th.
1192. Dakster
Quoting 1185. aquak9:


you weren't in my kitchen....


TMI...

And you weren't in my bed room...

(A/C's broke)
1193. GatorWX
Quoting 1192. Dakster:


TMI...

And you weren't in my bed room...

(A/C's broke)


Funny that we have to complain about that in the middle of December. Although, my FPL bill went from 140 peak to 50 last month. If I didn't have the ac running, it'd probably be more like 30.
1194. GatorWX

1195. aquak9
oh dak- -

(laughs and runs)
1199. Dakster
Quoting 1193. GatorWX:


Funny that we have to complain about that in the middle of December. Although, my FPL bill went from 140 peak to 50 last month. If I didn't have the ac running, it'd probably be more like 30.


I know. Darn shame.
1202. beell
Quoting 1188. hydrus:


I won't try to talk you out of a severe chance for the plateau, hydrus. But...current guidance would suggest that it may not be until Saturday before the surface ridge drifts far enough east to allow decent return flow from the Gulf. Instability is farther south. That can always change and instability could creep farther N than forecast-always worth watching.


Friday, 12Z


Saturday, 12Z
Some modified returns beginning here and a surface trough over the lower Mississippi Valley.


12Z GFS puts a weak surface wave off the VA coast next Sunday. If that were the case, this could pull a colder airmass south and reinforce a wedge front east of the Appalachians-adding a nice warm frontal boundary to go along with the cold front. 18Z-not so much of anything off the east coast.

Right now, my guess would be for upglide moisture over the remaining cool airmass preceeding the mid-level disturbance and eastward shift of the surface ridge. A rain forecast.

But you remember what happened the last time I tried to talk you out of a severe event!

Quoting 1154. weatherbow:


That burst of snow was something I didn't even expect. I remember one minute it was cloudy and the next it was a whiteout!

But it really should have been expanded a long while ago, and a Winter Storm Warning should have been issued for South Central Pennsylvania. I know someone who got 9" in York County!



I talked to the NWS in State College about this. They said in order for them to put a Winter Storm Warning is that the area is forecast to have 6"+ in a 12 hr period. And while the southern part of York County got 6-9" most of the county according to them got at or below 6"
1204. hydrus
Quoting 1202. beell:


I won't try to talk you out of a severe chance for the plateau, hydrus. But...current guidance would suggest that it may not be until Saturday before the surface ridge drifts far enough east to allow decent return flow from the Gulf. Instability is farther south. That can always change and instability could creep farther N than forecast-always worth watching.


Friday, 12Z


Saturday, 12Z
Some modified returns beginning here and a surface trough over the lower Mississippi Valley.


12Z GFS puts a weak surface wave off the VA coast next Sunday. If that were the case, this could pull a colder airmass south and reinforce a wedge front east of the Appalachians-adding a nice warm frontal boundary to go along with the cold front. 18Z-not so much of anything off the east coast.

Right now, my guess would be for upglide moisture over the remaining cool airmass preceeding the mid-level disturbance and eastward shift of the surface ridge. A rain forecast.

But you remember what happened the last time I tried to talk you out of a severe event!

We both know it is too early to tell if there will be a significant severe weather event. There were two things that grabbed my attention. The first was the forward speed of the low. The second was the position of the high pressure area off the east Florida coast, which has been hanging around to say the least. To top it off, we have the cold and warm air in place for such an event. For the record Beell, I have seen my share of severe weather, and am grateful when we are spared..:)
Right now, you actually have to go to top of Mt. Mitchell for the warmest air in Western NC. Currently 45 degrees up there with Asheville having 34 degrees.
1206. bappit
Houston-Galveston NWS:

THERE WAS SOME EROSION OF THE CLOUD COVER WELL TO THE WEST. THE NAM12 925 MB RELATIVE HUMIDITY FORECAST DRIES OUT THE NORTHERN 1 TO 2 SET OF COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. IF THE PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS DO DEVELOP IN THESE AREAS...PATCHY FOG SHOULD DEVELOP AS RADIATIONAL COOLING OCCURS.
1207. hydrus
1208. hydrus
We may see some snow. It is actually kinda neat when it snows here...Everything gets real quiet.
Quoting 1208. hydrus:
We may see some snow. It is actually kinda neat when it snows here...Everything gets real quiet.


o.O

Now I'm wondering if there is an insane WU'per living east of me.
1210. bappit
Check out the far eastern Atlantic. The front extends down to 15N on this chart. Is that going onshore near Morocco?

The Bubble ULL passing by....

1212. Thrawst
.
Who knows if China declares also, this growing island as theirs...

New island created by volcanic eruption in Japan grows 3.7 times
Posted on December 7, 2013



December 7, 2013 – JAPAN - According to Japan’s Coast Guard, the island, close to the Ogasawara archipelago, emerged as a result of undersea volcanic eruptions far south of Tokyo on November 20th and has since grown 3.7 times. It is now 300 meters long and 260 meters wide, the RIA Novosti news agency reports. According to expert estimates, the overall surface of the land mass makes up some 56,000 square meters. The island, originally a circle-turned an oval, now looks like a trapezoid, according to the NHK TV Channel. When the island emerged during volcanic eruptions of ash and magma from the Pacific Ocean bottom, it was 200 meters in diameter and 20 meters high. Just two days later, it was 400 meters in diameter and 30 meters high. The undersea volcano is expected to continue erupting for some more time. The islands that emerge this way will often get submerged again. If this is not the lot of the new island, Japan will enjoy an increase in its territorial waters. The neighboring Nishinoshima Island also emerged during a volcanic eruption in the mid-1970s. Nishinoshima Island is currently 800 meters long and 500 meters wide. Under international law, 12 nautical miles (or 22.2 kilometers) off the country’s coastline are seen as territorial waters, while the next 12 nautical miles, as the contiguous zone. 200 nautical miles (or 370 kilometers) off the shore is where the country’s exclusive economic zone ends and the continental shelf begins. The shelf is followed by the high seas.
1214. Thrawst
No wonder the beaches on South Beach were packed today -- Florida is the only place TO enjoy the beach right now - and stay above freezing - for that matter.
1215. hydrus
Quoting 1209. Astrometeor:


o.O

Now I'm wondering if there is an insane WU'per living east of me.
Your questioning my sanity because I believe it might snow......Can you guess what I am wondering.?...:)
1216. hydrus
Quoting 1214. Thrawst:
No wonder the beaches on South Beach were packed today -- Florida is the only place TO enjoy the beach right now - and stay above freezing - for that matter.
Florida is awesome..Not as awesome as it was though..Just me harmless opinion.
1217. hydrus
Quoting 1212. Thrawst:
.
+10
1218. Dakster
sunelinepr - That wouldn't be prudent of China to do. Reading the article, it sounds like it is clearly in Japanese waters.
1219. Dakster
Quoting 1217. hydrus:
+10


What was 1212? Nothing comes up on my end.
Quoting 1215. hydrus:
Your questioning my sanity because I believe it might snow......Can you guess what I am wondering.?...:)


I am armed (I happen to have two arms and hands) and dangerous. Don't try anything, or I'll hit you with a snowball.

P.S. I love snow.
1221. Thrawst
Quoting 1216. hydrus:
Florida is awesome..Not as awesome as it was though..Just me harmless opinion.


Yes, some drivers around here really make the experience quite the annoying one :p
1222. Dakster
Quoting 1221. Thrawst:


Yes, some drivers around here really make the experience quite the annoying one :p


+100000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 00000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000000 0000000000000000000
ENSO region 3.4 only felt like experimenting with above-average anomalies. I guess it didn't like it.

Leaving Asheville tomorrow to be back home in good ol' rural Central NC. Here's one of many good pictures I took when I went road tripping on Blue Ridge Parkway back in late October :)

Quoting 1223. TropicalAnalystwx13:
ENSO region 3.4 only felt like experimenting with above-average anomalies. I guess it didn't like it.

Crazy long time for ENSO phase to be stuck on neutral.
1226. hydrus
Quoting 1225. Bluestorm5:
Crazy long time for ENSO phase to be stuck on neutral.
Big time. Which makes me wonder what the Earths atmosphere has in store for us.
Quoting 1223. TropicalAnalystwx13:
ENSO region 3.4 only felt like experimenting with above-average anomalies. I guess it didn't like it.



Uh-huh. Hmm. Interesting. *Nods head*. I see.

Quite the chart, isn't it my dear Watson?
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #21
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MADI (BOB08-2013)
5:30 AM IST December 9 2013
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, the very severe cyclonic storm MADI over southwest Bay of Bengal moved northward and now lays center near 14.0N 84.7E, about 500 km east northeast of Chennai and 710 km north northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

It would weaken gradually and move northwards
slowly for 24 hours and then recurve towards west southwestward.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the area between 11.0N to 18.0N and west of 89.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 986 hPa.

The buoy located near 14.0N 87.0E reported at 0000 UTC of December 9th 2013 mean sea level pressure of 1003.2 hPa and winds of 21 knots.

The severe cyclonic storm lies close to the upper tropospheric steering ridge, which runs along 12.0N. It is leading to slow nearly northward movement. The low level convergence along with low level relative vorticity and upper level divergence remained same during past six hours. The sea surface temperature is about 26-28C. The ocean thermal energy is about 50-70 kj/cm2 around system center. It is relatively less (<50 kj/cm2) over central Bay of Bengal, to the north of system center. The vertical wind shear of horizontal wind is moderate (15-25 knots) around system center. It is high to the north of 13.0N. Hence as the system would move northward, it would experience relatively colder water and high vertical wind shear. Total precipitable water imagery animation also indicates beginning of entrainment of cold and dry air into the southern periphery of cyclone. Further very slow movement of the system will help in cooling of sea surface due to upwelling. All these are expected to weaken the system. With possible weakening of the system the lower and middle tropospheric winds would steer the system leading to restriction of further northward movement and cause west southwestward movement. The current forecast is based on consensus numerical weather prediction guidance and synoptic analysis.

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
12 HRS 14.4N 84.7E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 14.6N 84.6E - 50-55 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 14.6N 84.1E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 13.7N 83.2E - 30 knots (Deep Depression)
1230. hydrus
Some wind with the next system..so far..And dew points are starting to climb.
Hey Cody, I bet you'll find amusement from this:

School Closings/Information for tomorrow
1233. Thrawst
Quoting 1230. hydrus:
Some wind with the next system..so far..And dew points are starting to climb.


A switch in the NAO would be nice...
1234. Thrawst
Astro - I can't wait to see some of that structure in your avatar come spring. Just 3 months away until the main season of supercells begin.
1235. hydrus
Quoting 1233. Thrawst:


A switch in the NAO would be nice...
As if this is not enough..:)
Quoting 1234. Thrawst:
Astro - I can't wait to see some of that structure in your avatar come spring. Just 3 months away until the main season of supercells begin.


As long as they don't hit me, I'm fine.
Quoting 1210. bappit:
Check out the far eastern Atlantic. The front extends down to 15N on this chart. Is that going onshore near Morocco?

Looks more like Iberian peninsula for the main effects... maybe a player in the Med later in the week if it holds together?
Quoting 1229. TropicalAnalystwx13:
!!!

Best part of the vid is "holy freakin' moly".... lol
Quoting 1223. TropicalAnalystwx13:
ENSO region 3.4 only felt like experimenting with above-average anomalies. I guess it didn't like it.


ESPI is still falling, it's -0.95, I expect region 3,4 to fall at least a little further in the next month or so.
SOI is interesting.. Nov numbers are hinting colder too.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 08 Dec 2013
Average for last 30 days 6.8
Average for last 90 days 3.9
Daily contribution to SOI calculation -6.6
Monthly average SOI values September 4.3
October -2.1
November 10.1
Not fun studying for your final exam at 1 am in morning, especially when your faulty microwave created a fire on popcorn fire. I am very lucky fire alarm didn't go off and get hundreds of people upset at me!
Quoting 1169. Jedkins01:


Given the nature of large scale weather patterns to behave in a wave pattern, oscillating + or - about an axis, I would think that persistent warm weather in the southeast for this first half of December will likely be replaced by a colder weather pattern by the late in the month, hopefully just in time for Christmas.

Sure, its far from guaranteed, but large scale patterns do behave that way, so I suspect there is a at least some shot that colder weather will be around for Christmas this year.


Let's hope so, sheesh!
Quoting 1176. aquak9:


yo jed- you're at FSU, right? I'm hopin' for ya'll to get to Pasadena. There's some weather, there ya go, there ya go!


Yep I sure am! We already are officially going to the national championship, this is my second semester here and my first football season as an FSU student. Looks like I became a student at a lucky time!
1247. LargoFl
Good Morning.......................
1248. LargoFl
1249. LargoFl
7-day for the Tampa Bay area....
Lack of sleep? Makes me not happy.
But 2-4" of more snow tomorrow makes me very happy.
My sister's school has 2 hour delay. Still haven't called for me yet.
Ohhhh. Just went out to check on the porch,(could barley get the door to open) and almost fell off. Like serious sheet of ice. Freezing rain ATM.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. A chilly 41 degrees with a wind chill of 37. A high of 48 possible. Guess I can wear one of my Christmas sweaters for the kids today.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: Slow-Poached Eggs with Shrimp and cheesy Grits, regular or whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, crepes filled with cream cheese and strawberries, topped with whipped cream, eggs and hash browns, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, bagels with cream cheese and jelly or lox, cinnamon streusel muffins, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
G'morning all. Ya'll be safe out on the ice today!
This mornings Update from National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council.

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
G'morning all. Ya'll be safe out on the ice today!


Ice... Ice.... The only ice I have here is in my scotch and coke and in the bath I had earlier. 95.5°F here earlier and mighty humid, currently 74.7°F relative humidity 73%.
Quoting 1252. Hurricane614:
Ohhhh. Just went out to check on the porch,(could barley get the door to open) and almost fell off. Like serious sheet of ice. Freezing rain ATM.
It's switching over to rain here in SE PA, but still some ice, especially where the snow was not cleared and the rain froze into the snow. And 2-6 inches forecast for tomorrow. Grateful for VPN and being able to work from home.
Quoting 1224. Bluestorm5:
Leaving Asheville tomorrow to be back home in good ol' rural Central NC. Here's one of many good pictures I took when I went road tripping on Blue Ridge Parkway back in late October :)



Love the Blue Ridge Parkway. I grew up in Northern Va. I always loved when my dad would take me for a drive on the parkway.
One day we went when it was raining. At the higher elevations along the parkway it was snowing. It was pretty cool.
A suggestion for some of the regulars. It would be nice if you guys would mention where you're located when you post an image, forecast, etc.

That might help the lurkers figure out where these images, forecasts, and current conditons are coming from.

My school system closed today. I guess I can eat my cake as well :)
Quoting 1250. Doppler22:
Lack of sleep? Makes me not happy.
But 2-4" of more snow tomorrow makes me very happy.


Join the club... running on 5 hours sleep to study for last exam. It'll all be over at 2 pm and I get to drive toward the ocean :)

I'll see y'all again when I get back home.
Good morning everybody. 
I was taking pictures of the ice that accumulated during the night at about 7:45 am this morning when I heard a loud pop. A large tree limb had fallen from a tree across the street. I took pictures of it immediately. By the way I got about 1/4"+ of ice accumulation here in Herndon, VA.

Everybody affected by the ice stay safe out there. 
Looking at the 30day TPW, I'm half convinced the wave south of Hispaniola, has remains of the tenacious 30W.. 30W was born Nov 3rd east of Philippines & landed on east Africa Nov 16th.
Sheet of ice outside. Icicles hanging from everything. Not even going outside with how clumsy I am :P
When is Winter going to come to FL? We are at an All-Time record pace here in Orlando temps wise as we are 6 degrees above average for the month!

Quoting 1264. Doppler22:
Sheet of ice outside. Icicles hanging from everything. Not even going outside with how clumsy I am :P


Where are you located?
The children got a two hour delay.I'm going into work late myself just to be sure of things.
1268. hydrus
Quoting 1263. Skyepony:
Looking at the 30day TPW, I'm half convinced the wave south of Hispaniola, has remains of the tenacious 30W.. 30W was born Nov 3rd east of Philippines & landed on east Africa Nov 16th.
It will end up on Mars as a tropical depression according to the NAM..:)
Quoting 1266. Sfloridacat5:


Where are you located?
He's located in York County P.A.They say another round of snow tomorrow for us (I'm in D.C) in the morning (oh great here come the retard drivers).So
I will be preparing myself tonight.It won't amount to much though.
Quoting 1269. washingtonian115:
He's located in York County P.A.They say another round of snow tomorrow for us (I'm in D.C) in the morning (oh great here come the retard drivers).So
I will be preparing myself tonight.It won't amount to much though.
Yes, if you want to know info about a poster, click on their user name and their "about" section is on the upper right corner...

Doppler22 - "Hello. I'm just a person who loves weather. I live in York County, PA and have 2 brothers... neither of which like weather ha :)"
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
21:00 PM FST December 9 2013
===================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 05F (1004 hPa) located at 15.0S 176.0E is reported as moving southeast at 20 knots. Position poor based on multi-satellite infrared imagery and peripheral surface reports. Sea surface temperature is around 30C.

Convection has not increased or deepened much in the last 12 hours. Organization remains poor. System lies to the east of an upper trough in a moderate to high sheared environment.

Global models have picked up the system and moves it southeastward with little intensification.

The potential for this disturbance to form into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours is VERY LOW.
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM MADI (BOB08-2013)
14:30 PM IST December 9 2013
=======================================

At 9:00 AM UTC, the very severe cyclonic storm MADI over west central and adjoining southwest Bay of Bengal moved slightly northward and now lays center near 14.4N 84.7E, about 510 km east northeast of Chennai and 750 km north northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

It would weaken gradually and move nearly northwards slowly for some more time and then recurve southwestward.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. Associated broken low/medium clouds embedded with intense to very intense convection is seen over the area between 11.0N to 18.0N and between 82.0E to 87.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature is about -80C

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure of the very severe cyclonic storm is 986 hPa.

Forecast and Intensity
=====================
9 HRS 14.7N 84.7E - 60-65 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
21 HRS 14.6N 84.5E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)
45 HRS 13.8N 83.7E - 45-50 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
69 HRS 12.7N 82.5E - 35-40 knots (Cyclonic Storm)
1273. hydrus
The next system will have some high RH values..
1274. Dakster
What a morning... Just got in after shoveling the sunshine off the front porch. Phew... Glad that is done.

Have a happy Manic Monday everyone.
US Navy predicts summer ice free Arctic by 2016

The paper is highly critical of global climate models (GCM) and even the majority of regional models, noting that "many Arctic climatic processes that are omitted from, or poorly represented in, most current-generation GCMs" which "do not account for important feedbacks among various system components." There is therefore "a great need for improved understanding and model representation of physical processes and interactions specific to polar regions that currently might not be fully accounted for or are missing in GCMs."

Link
Quoting 1250. Doppler22:
Lack of sleep? Makes me not happy.
But 2-4" of more snow tomorrow makes me very happy.
Accuweather is calling for 3-6 inches..
Leading climate scientist Kevin Trenberth has told reportingclimatescience.com that he believes the pause in global warming may be caused by long term changes in the Pacific Ocean.




Trenberth and colleague John Fasullo argue in a new scientific paper that the massive El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event that occurred in 1997 and 1998 triggered the pause. They say that the El Nino caused a large loss of heat from the deep ocean to the sea surface that resulted in a cooling of the oceans. Since then the deep ocean has been absorbing heat back from the upper ocean and so cooling the atmosphere.


Link
Landslide in Brazil on Monday, 09 December, 2013 at 03:47 (03:47 AM) UTC.
Description
At least seven people died and nine others are missing in a landslide caused by a heavy rainstorm that buried about 20 homes on the weekend in Lajedinho, a city in the interior of the Brazilian state of Bahia, firefighters reported Sunday. An intense downpour lasting about two hours saturated the ground enough to cause landslides on Saturday night, destroying a number of homes and leaving about 100 people homeless, according to the Civil Defense authorities in Bahia, in the northeastern part of Brazil. Firefighters confirmed recovering seven bodies in Lajedinho, a town located some 355 kilometers (220 miles) from Salvador, the regional capital, and they are continuing to search in the mud and among the ruins of pulverized homes for nine people who are still missing. The seven known fatalities included six women and a 3-year-old boy. The city authorities, who have not yet calculated the material losses, are housing the homeless temporarily in a local school. "A deluge of water fell between 11 p.m. and 1 a.m.," said Bahia Vice Gov. Otto Alencar. According to local residents, Lajedinho experiences constant problems from rain because of its location in a depression at the bottom of a valley.
Hypuweather forecast up to 6 inches is possible in D.C..But knowing our luck..CWG thinks that what ever falls will stay on the ground due to cold air for the rest of the week
Is this true. the coldest temperature ever recorded on earth yesterday. If true Dr. Master should post on this record breaking event soon. Link
Quoting 1279. washingtonian115:
Hypuweather forecast up to 6 inches is possible in D.C..But knowing our luck..CWG thinks that what ever falls will stay on the ground due to cold air for the rest of the week
Keep them teddy bear fingers crossed ;)
1282. MahFL
Much of the US in the ice box....


1283. ricderr
A suggestion for some of the regulars. It would be nice if you guys would mention where you're located when you post an image, forecast, etc.



hi...i'm ric...from el paso....and i'm an drug addict....oops.....that might have been a tad too much info there
Quoting 1265. StormTrackerScott:
When is Winter going to come to FL? We are at an All-Time record pace here in Orlando temps wise as we are 6 degrees above average for the month!




you want winter move UP N

Surprise y'all!


...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON HAS ISSUED A WINTER STORM WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

* PRECIPITATION TYPE...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION MAY START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 66 IN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND U.S. ROUTE 50 IN MARYLAND.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW.

* TIMING...NEAR DAWN TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AFTERNOON...INCLUDING THE TUESDAY MORNING RUSH HOUR.

* TEMPERATURES...UPPER 20S AND LOWER 30S.

* WINDS...NORTH 5 TO 10 MPH.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE PROBABLE DUE TO ACCUMULATING SNOW...WHICH WILL CAUSE ADVERSE TRAVELING CONDITIONS. THE SNOW WILL LIKELY IMPACT THE MORNING RUSH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATION RATES OF 1-2 INCHES PER HOUR FOR A TWO-TO-FOUR HOUR PERIOD FROM DAYBREAK TO MID-TO-LATE MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE ACCUMULATIONS THAT MAY IMPACT TRAVEL. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS.

&&


this just in: 1009 NWS
PRECIPITATION TYPE...POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY SNOW. THE PRECIPITATION
MAY START AS A PERIOD OF SLEET...ESPECIALLY SOUTH OF INTERSTATE
66 IN VIRGINIA...THE DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA...AND U.S. ROUTE 50 IN
MARYLAND.

* ACCUMULATIONS...POTENTIAL FOR FIVE INCHES OR MORE OF SNOW.

But I've already been fooled one to many times.I'm just hoping..
1287. JNTenne
Our friends who live 10 miles West of us have been without power since yesterday. They have wood stoves so they are staying warm, but they didn't get the generator I suggested they should get last summer so they don't have running water or refrigeration (well they could set their perishables in shade outside since its still in the low 30's) Hope everyone up north stays warm and safe.. can't wait for Winter to start!
Now this can go both ways here in D.C..It can be like the March 6 storm..or it can be like the February 7th storm in 010.The second blizzard in February 010 was underestimated several times before it was almost to late while the march 6 event was over estimated for the city.
1289. GatorWX
Morning all!

Caribbean system creeping closer. Should bring a decent bit of moisture with it. Maybe FL will finally get some weather!? 80% chance here Sunday. Warm throughout the forecast period however. Coolest day is 10 days from now at 72 lol. I want winter 2009-10 to return for awhile, or I need to go back to NY for a few days. Need a taste of some winter! C'mon haarp, beam that jetstream to the east ;)


1290. DFWdad
Quoting 1277. ColoradoBob1:
Leading climate scientist Kevin Trenberth has told reportingclimatescience.com that he believes the pause in global warming may be caused by long term changes in the Pacific Ocean.




Trenberth and colleague John Fasullo argue in a new scientific paper that the massive El Nino Pacific Ocean warming event that occurred in 1997 and 1998 triggered the pause. They say that the El Nino caused a large loss of heat from the deep ocean to the sea surface that resulted in a cooling of the oceans. Since then the deep ocean has been absorbing heat back from the upper ocean and so cooling the atmosphere.


Link


Thanks for the article, that was interesting read.

Thanks to modern technology, its like we are able too see some things for the first time. I mean, measuring sea heights with satellites, pretty cool! A hundred ( &13) years ago, all they could do in Galveston is observe that the winds and waves were getting stronger each hour until it was too late.

Bad thing is, I hate to wait, and we are in the middle of the current 20-25 year positive/negative cycle that started around 1998. I want to see this theory verify!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
1292. sar2401
Quoting rickdove:
Is this true. the coldest temperature ever recorded on earth yesterday. If true Dr. Master should post on this record breaking event soon. Link

Did you notice this bit?:

Station "Dome Fuji" is located at the highest peak, at an altitude of 3786 meters above sea level.

That's 12421 feet. It tends to get really cold at that height above sea level anywhere, but especially in Antarctica. Since the previous world's record was set at the Russian Vostok Station, which is at 11,444 feet, a record generally would have to be at that altitude or lower. However, the Dome Fuji Station was set up to see if temperatures at 1,000 feet higher than Vostok were even colder. We'll see if the WMO accepts this as a record.
1293. ARiot
In the Mid-Atlantic, east of 95 anyway, the weekend event was a mixed bag of everything.

Around APG, it was mostly snow, then ice pellets, then a short burst of freezing rain, then plain old rain.

My co worker in NOVA reported less snow and more icy stuff.

My other co worker in south Jersey said it was all snow.

The area around the bay here normally gets a pass on the snow that folks just to the west get.

Tonight and tomorrow will be interesting if DC, Baltimore and points east of 95 pick up a good snow.

It won't take much to slow the roll around here :D
1294. Dakster
Quoting 1280. rickdove:
Is this true. the coldest temperature ever recorded on earth yesterday. If true Dr. Master should post on this record breaking event soon. Link


That is a little nippy at -132F. I wonder what the windchill brought it to. Assuming there was wind.