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Climate Science Legal Defense Fund Celebrates its Four-Year Anniversary

By: Jeff Masters 8:03 PM GMT on January 28, 2016

Whenever scientific research uncovers truths that threaten the profits of large and powerful corporations, those companies--and the politicians these corporations' money help elect-- inevitably fight back by attacking the scientists. As I discussed in detail in my 2009 blog post, The Manufactured Doubt industry and the hacked email controversy, we've seen this behavior most clearly with the tobacco industry, but manufacturers of chlorofluorocarbons, asbestos, benzene, beryllium, chromium, MTBE, perchlorates, phthalates, and a slew of many other toxic chemicals have all waged elaborate campaigns to attack the scientific findings and the scientists that threatened their profits. These attacks often take the form of legal action, which government or university-funded scientists do not have the resources to combat. Such attacks against climate scientists have been particularly pernicious and numerous in recent years, and multiple climate scientists are currently involved in litigation in state and federal courts across the United States. The Climate Science Legal Defense Fund (CSLDF) was created to help these climate scientists fight back. CSLDF works to help raise funds for scientists’ legal defenses, serves as a resource in finding pro bono legal representation, and provides support during difficult litigation proceedings as well as when legal action is threatened. I'm proud to say that I'm a founding board member of the charity, and this week marks the four-year anniversary of their official debut. Over that time, they’ve helped nearly a hundred researchers across the country, from Arizona to Virginia. In celebration of their birthday, they’ve launched a new website at climatesciencedefensefund.org. The new site explains their history, details their initial work defending Dr. Michael Mann, and describes their current projects. I hope you will consider making a donation to this worthy cause in the future.


Figure 1. Screen shot of the new website at climatesciencedefensefund.org.

To learn more about the well-funded attacks on climate science and climate scientists by the fossil fuel industry, my fellow CSLDF board member, Noami Oreskes, has co-authored the excellent book, Merchants of Doubt, which has also been made into a fascinating documentary (available on Netflix.)

My next post will be Friday afternoon.
Jeff Masters

Climate Change Politics

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Where do I send the check?
Very heavy rains moving into the I-4 region. Rush hour is going to be a complete mess!

Thank You Doctor for the information; reminds me of a current political candidate, funded in part by big oil/energy, telling folks on the stump trail that Nasa satellites have not detected any global warming...........................
Thanks Dr. Masters!
We have no god other than money
Quoting 2. StormTrackerScott:

Very heavy rains moving into the I-4 region. Rush hour is going to be a complete mess!




The cell heading towards Sarasota has been holding itself together for some time. It might need to be watched as it moves onshore.
Interesting happenings in NJ.

USGS reporting an over land sonic boom.
M0.0 Sonic Boom - 3km NNE of Hammonton, New Jersey

Anyone in NJ or surrounding areas feel anything??
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
GALE WARNING
TROPICAL LOW 08U
3:07 AM WST January 29 2016
=============================

At 2:00 AM WST, A Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 17.3S 117.7E or 350 km north northwest of Port Hedland and 390 km north northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D0.5/24 HRS

The low is gradually strengthening and is forecast to become a tropical cyclone during Friday as it tracks southwards towards the Pilbara coast. It is forecast to reach category 2 intensity and then make landfall on Saturday morning between Pardoo and Karratha, including near Port Hedland.

GALES may develop in coastal parts between Wallal and Dampier, including Port Hedland and Karratha, during Friday evening or overnight into Saturday morning. If the system tracks further to the east then GALES may develop as far east as Bidyadanga. If the system tracks further west then GALES may extend as far west as Mardie during Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 km/h may occur near the center on Saturday morning and afternoon including in the Port Hedland area.

Tides between Pardoo and Karratha are likely to rise above the normal high tide mark with very rough seas and possible flooding of low-lying coastal areas east of the crossing point.

Heavy rainfall associated with the system is likely to develop over the Pilbara and far western Kimberley from Friday and extend further inland as the system continues to track southwards on Saturday. A Flood Watch is current for the Pilbara and a Flood Warning is current for the De Grey River Catchment, see www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 18.4S 117.9E - 35 knots (CAT 1) northwest of Port Hedland
24 HRS 19.5S 118.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2) northwest of Port Hedland
48 HRS 23.0S 120.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia near Newman
72 HRS 28.7S 126.5E - 25 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia

Additional Information
==============
Deep convection is being sustained west and south of the center favored by strong upper divergent flow, reasonable monsoonal low level inflow and warm ocean temperatures in excess of 30C. Development has been gradual offset by moderate northeast shear and by being quite broad and monsoonal by nature.

For Dvorak, a curved band of -0.3 is evident wrap over the past few hours indicating a DT of 2.0. MET is 2.0 with a D- development and PAT also 2.0, which gives a CI of 2.0.

Intensity is set to 30 knot maximum winds based on a good Rapid Scat pass at 09:42 UTC which is only a little above the Dvorak current intensity.

The low has moved steadily to the south under the influence of a mid-level ridge to the east and monsoonal flow to the north, ahead of an upstream upper trough. Numerical weather prediction guidance is consistent in persisting the motion towards the Pilbara coast, and there is higher confidence than normal in the track. Recent model guidance [1200Z runs] have shifted the track slightly to the east and slightly slower.

While gradual development is forecast in the next 24 hours to tropical cyclone intensity there is the risk of more rapid intensification in the 12 hours before landfall as the wind shear decreases. Landfall intensity is forecast to be at the higher end of what model guidance suggests at category 2 [55 knots] but there remains some uncertainty at this range.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for the areas of Bidyadanga to Mardie and the adjacent inland parts to Marble Bar and Pannawonica

Quoting 6. Sfloridacat5:



The cell heading towards Sarasota has been holding itself together for some time. It might need to be watched as it moves onshore.


This is a vigorous upper disturbance so that band coming into Tampa will work across the Penisula. It's just coming down in buckets here.
"Whenever scientific research uncovers truths that threaten the profits of large and powerful corporations, those companies and the politicians these corporations' money help elect inevitably fight back by attacking the scientists."

That first sentence could probably stand a rewrite, Doc. :-)
1.07" and still coming down like mad. Now up to 7.71" for January.
Quoting 8. Gearsts:


Watch what happens to that in a week to 10 days....Will literally be off the chart...Negative...jmo...
Thanks for all you're doing to advance and support climate research and meteorology. It's nice to see some counter attacks taking shape against the big funders behind so many PR campaigns of doubt/intimidation.

Tropical thing (92S) with extended convection bursting in the Indian Ocean, could make landfall at cat.2 strength nearby, soon :


Australia:
Severe thunderstorms that hit Geelong yesterday have caused millions of dollars in damage, the city's Mayor says. More than 150 homes were flooded when the city received twice its average January rainfall in just two hours.
Mayor Darryn Lyons said there had been widespread damage in the region. "No doubt there'll be millions and millions of dollars worth of damage, there's no question about that," he said. "What's extraordinary is there's been no-one who's been severely injured." Cr Lyons said 18 people had been rescued, including one man hit by lightning who received minor burns to his arm. "Many local shops and businesses and homes have been damaged by water," he said.
- The SES said most of the 500 calls they received were related to building damage, fallen trees and flash flooding.
- The worst hit area was Avalon, near Geelong, which experienced a one-in-100-year storm. It recorded 72 millimetres of rain - 54 of which fell in 30 minutes. .

---Authorities are also investigating an oil slick in Geelong's Corio Bay, detected close to the shore near the Viva refinery. The Environment Protection Authority said it believed the spill happened during yesterday's storm---
Thanks dok!
I just ponied up for $25. It hasn't been a very good year in the market, and my pitiful SS check isn't going up, or I would have liked to donate more. The real answer long term is to make those who file what the court rules is a frivolous lawsuit pay the legal AND personal expenses of the defendant. Right now, even if a scientist is lucky enough to have the court rule a lawsuit is frivolous, their personal expenses in terms of things like lost productivity aren't recoverable. The institution is also not able to recover these kinds of "soft" costs as well. Let's make it as painful for those who file these kinds of suits as it is for the victim.
Viz is likely less that a 1/4 mile now. This is just unreal. I notice a change in the models this morning slowing the upper trough that was near Texas while also show a stronger reflection as well. What this did was pull 2" PWAT's up into C FL over the last few hours and boy is this disturbance unloading on C FL now. WOW!!!

System is a lot stronger than models thought yesterday as a result the WPC missed this by a long shot kuddos again goes to the NAM, WRF, & HRRR models for nailing this forecast.


Juicy subtropical tap along a long frontal boundary, headed on a strong jet stream into the West Coast. Surface wind barbs on the wider view (which isn't rendered in gif) show easterly trades stretching back to off Mexico now turning northward en masse as far west as the Hawaiian Islands, feeding the frontal zone. Looking more like what we used to call a "Hawaiian Storm" around here, but subsequently dubbed by the media as "Pineapple Connection".
Quoting 9. HadesGodWyvern:

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #9
GALE WARNING
TROPICAL LOW 08U
3:07 AM WST January 29 2016
=============================

At 2:00 AM WST, A Tropical Low (998 hPa) located at 17.3S 117.7E or 350 km north northwest of Port Hedland and 390 km north northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The tropical low is reported as moving south at 6 knots.

...........

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for the areas of Bidyadanga to Mardie and the adjacent inland parts to Marble Bar and Pannawonica


Whoo hoo ! Australian season off to a [late] start!
Quoting 7. VAbeachhurricanes:

Interesting happenings in NJ.

USGS reporting an over land sonic boom.
M0.0 Sonic Boom - 3km NNE of Hammonton, New Jersey

Anyone in NJ or surrounding areas feel anything??
I'm glad I'm not a 911 operator in coastal NJ. There apparently have been hundreds of calls to 911 wanting to know what's going on. There have also been reports of multiple booms in close succession. Sounds like the Air Force has some kind of maneuvers going on off the coast. The sonic booms aren't usually felt onshore, so there must be some kind of local condition like an inversion allowing the booms to be heard.
Quoting 18. StormTrackerScott:

Viz is likely less that a 1/4 mile now. This is just unreal. I notice a change in the models this morning slowing the upper trough that was near Texas while also show a stronger reflection as well. What this did was pull 2" PWAT's up into C FL over the last few hours and boy is this disturbance unloading on C FL now. WOW!!!

System is a lot stronger than models thought yesterday as a result the WPC missed this by a long shot kuddos again goes to the NAM, WRF, & HRRR models for nailing this forecast.


Looks like nasty wx for us here tomorrow .... I was hoping it'd all clear out by then, but seems bigger and slower than we were expecting. :o/
1.20" over by my place near Welch RD and its still coming down hard. Also there another even heavier round moving in from Tampa. We should easily surpass 2" yet again today.
Climatology....and we want to make a big deal about it changing....

Why even have it...
Quoting 1. Grothar:

Where do I send the check?

I made a donation in December. You can mail checks to:

Climate Science Legal Defense Fund
Columbia Law School
435 W. 116th St., Rm 527
New York, NY 10027

Or you can make a donation online at their website.
Quoting 2. StormTrackerScott:

Very heavy rains moving into the I-4 region. Rush hour is going to be a complete mess!





At least your precipitation runs off the road rather than accumulating in a solid mess :-)
Quoting 19. BayFog:


Juicy subtropical tap along a long frontal boundary, headed on a strong jet stream into the West Coast. Surface wind barbs on the wider view (which isn't rendered in gif) show easterly trades stretching back to off Mexico now turning northward en masse as far west as the Hawaiian Islands, feeding the frontal zone. Looking more like what we used to call a "Hawaiian Storm" around here, but subsequently dubbed by the media as "Pineapple Connection".
I'm trying to remember when I first hear the term "Pineapple Connection". It seems to me it was invented by Pete Giddings during the 1982-83 floods. He was trying to explain the subtropical tap all the west of the Hawaiian Islands using the not very good satellite pics of the day. I was watching one of his weather spots when I first heard the term. I don't know if he actually invented it, but he must have been one of the first to use it on-air. I thought it sounded kind of silly then, but it has since stuck.
Despite strong upper divergence with the approach of the final upper system I didn't think there would actually be heavy rain today in Central Florida just because although the atmosphere is saturated in Central and South Florida, the air is very stable, especially over Central Florida. I expected to see widespread light to moderate rain, but surprisingly there's some heavy convective rains in some areas including the Tampa Bay area.

Weather stations in Pinellas are reporting some pretty intense rainfall rates right now along with gusty winds and pretty low surface pressures, it shows you how strong dynamic forcing can do a lot to overcome stability:


Current conditions at
St. Petersburg Whitted Airport (KSPG)
Lat: 27.82NLon: -82.68WElev: 3ft.

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist

65F

18C
Humidity 93%
Wind Speed NW 9 G 22 mph
Barometer 29.77 in (1007.9 mb)
Dewpoint 63F (17C)
Visibility 1.00 mi
Last update 28 Jan 3:53 pm EST
Quoting 30. Jedkins01:

Despite strong upper divergence with the approach of the final upper system I didn't think there would actually be heavy rain today in Central Florida just because although the atmosphere is saturated in Central and South Florida, the air is very stable, especially over Central Florida. I expected to see widespread light to moderate rain, but surprisingly there's some heavy convective rains in some areas including the Tampa Bay area.

Weather stations in Pinellas are reporting some pretty intense rainfall rates right now along with gusty winds and pretty low surface pressures, it shows you how strong dynamic forcing can do a lot to overcome stability:


Current conditions at
St. Petersburg Whitted Airport (KSPG)
Lat: 27.82�NLon: -82.68�WElev: 3ft.

Heavy Rain Fog/Mist

65�F

18�C
Humidity 93%
Wind Speed NW 9 G 22 mph
Barometer 29.77 in (1007.9 mb)
Dewpoint 63�F (17�C)
Visibility 1.00 mi
Last update 28 Jan 3:53 pm EST


Models had a hard time depicting the actual strength of this upper trough until it actually began moving east across the Gulf. I saw the change on the models this morning so then is was just a waiting period to see if heavy rain could quickly develop with 2" PWAT's pushing north and meeting the upper trough. Then BINGO around 12pm heavy rains began to break out across C FL. Light rain now but up to 1.22" so far with heavy rain just west of here moving in.
I'm at 2.39". GFS did pretty well. It had my location at close to 2.9". Now with the arrival of the new upper level disturbance from the gulf I'll be hitting that 3" mark today... knock on wood lol.
Rain is training over my area in Fort Myers. It should start adding up pretty soon. We should top 13" for the month by 5 pm.
Quoting 2. StormTrackerScott:

Very heavy rains moving into the I-4 region. Rush hour is going to be a complete mess!




Yeah my parents just called about 10 minutes ago and said it was pouring there and have minor street flooding and the heaviest rain so far for this system.

Forced lifting from the surface low and divergence from the upper trough has made up for a very stable airmass and have created some impressive forcing. Rainfall rates are heavier than the standard radar estimate by a large amount. Melbourne's estimates and Miami's estimates as usual are way off.

I just wish that the radars would just display dual pole estimates now since they are usually very accurate as I've seen from student work experience from student work at the NWS, as a lot of people use the standard storm total and assume it's accurate if they don't compare rain gauge totals to the estimates.
Quoting 29. sar2401:

I'm trying to remember when I first hear the term "Pineapple Connection". It seems to me it was invented by Pete Giddings during the 1982-83 floods. He was trying to explain the subtropical tap all the west of the Hawaiian Islands using the not very good satellite pics of the day. I was watching one of his weather spots when I first heard the term. I don't know if he actually invented it, but he must have been one of the first to use it on-air. I thought it sounded kind of silly then, but it has since stuck.


Around Sacramento, we call it the "Pineapple Express" - I like the other terminology of "Pineapple Connection" as it implies a better physical actuality instead of something else named "Pineapple Express"
Thanks for the Update, Dr. Masters....
Quoting 31. StormTrackerScott:



Models had a hard time depicting the actual strength of this upper trough until it actually began moving east across the Gulf. I saw the change on the models this morning so then is was just a waiting period to see if heavy rain could quickly develop with 2" PWAT's pushing north and meeting the upper trough. Then BINGO around 12pm heavy rains began to break out across C FL. Light rain now but up to 1.22" so far with heavy rain just west of here moving in.


Yeah it's crazy, the the PW is at record levels for this time of year, if instability had been higher and further north, rainfall totals would have been 4-5 inches up into Central Florida like parts of south Florida had. You could pick up another 0.50-1.0 from that stuff to your southwest, as it's moving fast, but is convective and has impressive rainfall rates.

Hima.8 sat.
Australian northwestern coast - 92S : shape of the system showing good convection depth and fair vorticity. The area in the possible landfalling path is prone to storm surge efficient build-up, with its favorable coastline topography (bathymetry?). Fortunately, it must be sparsely populated I guess.
Wow check out Miami's sounding from yesterday late afternoon/early evening, it's no surprising some places got 3-5 inches of rain, and number of severe warnings were issued, along with at least 1 confirmed tornado so far:



A PW of 2.14 has to be close to all time for late January, and the shear potential was pretty impressive for a marginal risk day.
Quoting 38. Jedkins01:



Yeah it's crazy, the the PW is at record levels for this time of year, if instability had been higher and further north, rainfall totals would have been 4-5 inches up into Central Florida like parts of south Florida had. You could pick up another 0.50-1.0 from that stuff to your southwest, as it's moving fast, but is convective and has impressive rainfall rates.


Seems like we've been seeing a lot of point record PW measurements in different parts of the U.S. this past year, either for time of year or for ANY time of year. A value of 1.81 in DECEMBER last year was simply amazing here in the mid atlantic
Quoting 33. Sfloridacat5:

Rain is training over my area in Fort Myers. It should start adding up pretty soon. We should top 13" for the month by 5 pm.
12.98 I think

lol
MOST POPULOUS METRO ON MEDITERRANEAN SEA - NEW RECORD DRIEST YEAR: 2015 is the record driest calendar year in Barcelona, Spain. Barcelona's record for most consecutive days each without 1 mm / 0.04" of rainfall has been broken, with 85 such days as of January 28, 2016. Barcelona is the most populous metropolis on the Mediterranean Sea and the 6th most populous metropolis in Europe.

Link
Thanks for the info Dr Masters!
Blueberry capital of the world.

Quoting 7. VAbeachhurricanes:

Interesting happenings in NJ.

USGS reporting an over land sonic boom.
M0.0 Sonic Boom - 3km NNE of Hammonton, New Jersey

Anyone in NJ or surrounding areas feel anything??


Seems a lot of higher PW's and enhanced jets with El Nino
Quoting 1. Grothar:

Where do I send the check?

I'll send you the remitting address for the cheque, cash or jewels etc. by private courier.
Meanwhile we are thinking about the blog update and the coming spring, which might have all sorts of surprises.
Quoting 36. CraigsIsland:



Around Sacramento, we call it the "Pineapple Express" - I like the other terminology of "Pineapple Connection" as it implies a better physical actuality instead of something else named "Pineapple Express"
I also heard "Pineapple Express" around the same time, but it seems as if the connection thing caught on more in the Bay Area. I suppose it depended on which popular TV met used what term. Pete Giddings was pretty much king of the mets in the Bay area for a long time. He was more or less fired in 1998 after 29 years with KGO when a new manager wanted him to start doing five day forecasts. Pete didn't feel he could do accurate forecasts for more than four days. He also wanted to "brighten" up the forecasts, and Pete didn't want to be part of further cartoon skits after his one shot in George of the Jungle. He still has a website here, but he's now pushing 77 and has cut back on a lot of the things he used to do.
Quoting 26. JrWeathermanFL:

Climatology....and we want to make a big deal about it changing....

Why even have it...
AFLAC!!
Good for you, Dr. Masters. Anyone concerned about attacks on scientists by political and economic interests should consider contributing to the CSLDF.
Quoting 24. BahaHurican:

Looks like nasty wx for us here tomorrow .... I was hoping it'd all clear out by then, but seems bigger and slower than we were expecting. :o/
My decreasing clouds forecast this morning has now turned into cloudy. My forecast high of 58 has now turned into 54 while my actual high has been 52. Now it's supposed to clear later tonight...or maybe early tomorrow. It will clear out by sometime Friday...probably...and we should have a nice weekend...more than likely. :-)
Quoting 13. hydrus:

Watch what happens to that in a week to 10 days....Will literally be off the chart...Negative...jmo...


I + you.........now what the hell does it mean to me at my locale?
A Jet bent towards negative tilt?Aarctic... plus 2.9 C / average 1979-2000... Aaarrgh-
Quoting 42. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

12.98 I think

lol


It will be close. Doesn't look like too much rain left for Fort Myers (mostly on and off light rain). The rain was much heavier just south of town with this last batch.

Lake Shasta rose another 1% yesterday. A ton of rain heading that way this weekend too :

49% of Total Capacity
73% of Historical Avg. For This Date
Quoting 10. StormTrackerScott:



This is a vigorous upper disturbance so that band coming into Tampa will work across the Penisula. It's just coming down in buckets here.
I wanted to go out in the neighborhood for dinner tonight but it was pouring too hard, even though I have a waterproof jacket. There is a grocery store right down the block so I ducked in and asked an employee if they had umbrellas. He kindly escorted me to the umbrellas but they were all the same gaudy rainbow style. I told him, "I might buy one of these if I thought anyone remembered Jesse Jackson's Rainbow Coalition from the '80's". But he wasn't even born then, and he asked what that was all about. "Bringing people together", I replied, and he replied in turn, "That will never happen". So I am eating dinner alone tonight.
Quoting 55. HurricaneHunterJoe:



I + you.........now what the hell does it mean to me at my locale?
greetings joe...It means your rains chances are about to diminish, and the east half goes back into a stormy deep freeze...jmo..
62. vis0
from:: Dr. Masters entry3233, p7 comment#309
Quoting 309. 999Ai2016:

...And it's rising rather fast.

GISTEMP (from GISS, Goddard Institute for Space Studies) analysis, 1985-2015. Earth Institute, Colombia University, "Global Temperature in 2015", here is the January 19 blog entry with the same title : Link.





*click to enlarge takes you towards 2 pgs. 1st a bit bigger display with USE.com info, then another click on that img takes one to the largest-original size


What does this graph show?

Besides that the GLOBE is trending towards a warmer planet and that i got myself
some new crayolas.(though not sure what colours are lilac lead and maroon
malaria)

Apology to GISTEMP (from GISS, Goddard Institute for Space Studies) analysis,
1985-2015. Earth Institute, Colombia University,
which are in BLUE ONLY>.

What does this (my crappy version) graph show?

i added the following::(What i call peaks or valleys have to be one blue dot away from another)

Orangy-red line represents the peaks of only the higher recordings.

Cyan line represents the valleys of the lower recordings

The green spaces is when aGW $keptic$ can celebrate on both a peak and a valley in which global
temperatures were cooling from the previous plot therefore place blinders on their followers and
yell see the world is cooling by not showing them the rest of the plots. In other words both
peaks and valleys were cooling COMPARED to the previous year NOT the entire recorded history.

The yellow spaces mean only to the adjoining line that the yellow is touching was cooler than
the previous year In other words only the peak or ONLY the valley was cooler. Here aGE $keptic$
need not only blinders but the have to spin there followers enough so they are too dizzy to in
more than one direction, up or down
not both.

The light yellow spaces fall in an area where the error rate can make those years neutral, but i
felt sorry for aGW $keptic$ so i gave them those years otherwise its ONLY ~1 year out of ~30years
that both peaking and "valleying" was leaning towards cooler. 

If one adds all the lite yellow, yellow and greens its 5 celebrations with blinders on, 4 more years with
blinders and one has done the Dizzy Izzy Bat spins . In the world of make believe (ding ding ding-Trolley)
its 6 or 10 years out of 30 2 to 1 world is warming leans towards warming AND i'm being nice.

BTW it follows my creazy theory as Eath / physics / nature (complex planet) uses Space / Galacsic / gawd
 "signals" to  adjust its thermostatic motions.  As aGW is just beginning you'll see that every 24-34 years its
a 2:1 ratio using my graphed form. When aGW really takes off ~2050Ad thar ratio goes out the window and
Earth begins to try and survive on its own. Its as if humans are forcing natures hand to say ah
the heck with "gawds" word...
 (the 90% of science humans know not of yet, i call Galacsics)
...we can do better

What 'bout the aGW believers? how many years do they get to celebrate?

None.

See first why would one celebrate a negative but just in case one thinks why not?
See for the rest of the those 30 years (and much more), be it 21 or 24 years (the lite yellow neutral
years) the aGW believers are too busy to trying to awaken the public in realizing that aGW is
building to a rate that its not just the warming but how warming releases other dangers from
other chemicals trapped in the ice to diseases that are only existent in the tropics but if the globe
warms then the tropics expands
Worse is that there is less Global cooling to hold back diseases from, mutating instead of being dormant
during cooler periods of weather. Finally CO2 will damage how animals think. As we go deeper
the odds of a discovery will meet an mid point then lower...

(at first as money is presented for new ideas, new ideas will flourish but as CO2 builds minds will
loose that imaginative power)

...since humans cannot use their imagination as well when its breathing in CO2 (toxins) if the CO2
is not removed and STOPPED from building, the odds of an invention being thought of dwindle.


...yes it was a jet not quake over NJ (some thought it was a quake this afternoon)
...sar2491 are you flying sonic jets bkwards too? oouch! or !hcuoo
Good evening guys :)

Rivers and lakes are around here are nearing flood stage and this site to my NW near is Ocala near Major Flood Stage.

2015/2016 - The next cherry-picked starting point for aGW deniers.
Quoting 61. hydrus:

greetings joe...It means your rains chances are about to diminish, and the east half goes back into a stormy deep freeze...jmo..


Stop that!! Your gonna make him CRY....
Quoting 65. sonofagunn:

2015/2016 - The next cherry-picked starting point for aGW deniers.


no warming for 1 month!
69. vis0

Quoting 18. StormTrackerScott:

Viz is likely less that a 1/4 mile now. This is just unreal. I notice a change in the models this morning slowing the upper trough that was near Texas while also show a stronger reflection as well. What this did was pull 2" PWAT's up into C FL over the last few hours and boy is this disturbance unloading on C FL now. WOW!!!

System is a lot stronger than models thought yesterday as a result the WPC missed this by a long shot kuddos again goes to the NAM, WRF, & HRRR models for nailing this forecast.



Quoting 19. BayFog:


Juicy subtropical tap along a long frontal boundary, headed on a strong jet stream into the West Coast. Surface wind barbs on the wider view (which isn't rendered in gif) show easterly trades stretching back to off Mexico now turning northward en masse as far west as the Hawaiian Islands, feeding the frontal zone. Looking more like what we used to call a "Hawaiian Storm" around here, but subsequently dubbed by the media as "Pineapple Connection".
2cookies for me
anyone remember me saying watch the low build that was south of Alabama in the GoMx? no ..darn

How 'bout my post of my own filtered Sat. image of moisture heading towards California, even left a remark for hurricanehunterJoe on my USE.com image, no?! too! darn.

ah i'm on a diet anywayz...mmm farina

oh well at least i know my donation(blog topic) (sis and 3 friends agreed to as well)  is heading to a place near by (will not be lost in long mail deliveries)
Quoting 67. LouisPasteur:



If you've been around for a while, you may have seen posts that reveal that there is another side to Sar that (s)he'd prefer you to forget about.
No, Louie, there's a side to my life when I was young and foolish and did things I wouldn't do today. I don't ask anyone, least of all me, to forget about it. If you grew up in the 60's and 70's and managed to escape all that then, please, be my guest while you get the Golden Cookie Award.

BTW, if you've been around long enough, you'd know it was he....
Quoting 68. schwankmoe:



no warming for 1 month!


Do 1998 will no longer be the reference point?

The data manipulators will have a new challenge!
Quoting 69. vis0:



2cookies for me
anyone remember me saying watch the low build that was south of Alabama in the GoMx? no ..darn

How 'bout my post of my own filtered Sat. image of moisture heading towards California, even left a remark for hurricanehunterJoe on my USE.com image, no?! too! darn.

ah i'm on a diet anywayz...mmm farina

oh well at least i know my donation(blog topic) (sis and 3 friends agreed to as well)  is heading to a place near by (will not be lost in long mail deliveries)

I do remember about the low in the Gulf. Now, what do you think about next Tuesday down this way? Might be in a bit of jam then. It's almost scary watching the GFS and ECMWF pump out almost identical storms when we're five days out.
Quoting 63. CaribBoy:

Good evening guys :)


That's not SAL down there in the crook between the two hills, is it? We don't want any of that stuff showing up yet. :-)
75. vis0
am watching that very active energy ball at 100west 10 n just s/ssw of Mexico by 100+ miles.

Lets see what happens IF it gets caught up in the ENSO flow towards Florida and interacts with-or just behind  the Trough passing Texas

Quoting 66. PedleyCA:



Stop that!! Your gonna make him CRY....
And he would post it on the blog with his trademark exclamation point...95% of his posts have one.
Quoting 61. hydrus:

greetings joe...It means your rains chances are about to diminish, and the east half goes back into a stormy deep freeze...jmo..


Homey say "he no like that"
Quoting 62. vis0:

from:: Dr. Masters entry3233, p7 comment#309..yes it was a jet not quake over NJ (some thought it was a quake this afternoon)
...sar2491 are you flying sonic jets bkwards too? oouch! or !hcuoo

No, my days of flying anything backwards are over. You didn't explain what that flesh colored line meant too. :-)
Good news for the CA drought, although there is a ways to go:

"There are finally some signs that some modest dents in the armor of the multi-year drought in California are appearing...."

Link

Interesting. The same pattern, with inverted symmetry, and one pole full of moisture, the other drier. A kind of turbulent duality. Cloud tops temperature around -80 C in the vicinity of 92S "center" (upper left).

The Australian BOM's taking the threat of a strong landfall rather seriously. See local warnings (Link)
___
The emerging radial structure:

Quoting 43. DCSwithunderscores:

MOST POPULOUS METRO ON MEDITERRANEAN SEA - NEW RECORD DRIEST YEAR: 2015 is the record driest calendar year in Barcelona, Spain. Barcelona's record for most consecutive days each without 1 mm / 0.04" of rainfall has been broken, with 85 such days as of January 28, 2016. Barcelona is the most populous metropolis on the Mediterranean Sea and the 6th most populous metropolis in Europe.

Link


That is amazing considering that winter is the rainy season--one of the defining features of the Mediterranean climate.
Quoting 57. 999Ai2016:

A Jet bent towards negative tilt?Aarctic... plus 2.9 C / average 1979-2000... Aaarrgh-
Just to show how far off the mean December was, this is the mean 2 meter temperature for the month of December, 2000 to 2015.



This is the same map, but this time it's only for December, 2015. Not only was it amazingly warm in the (mostly) eastern half of the US, look at how cold it was in interior Greenland and land areas around Baffin Bay.

Quoting 86. BaltimoreBrian:



That is amazing considering that winter is the rainy season--one of the defining features of the Mediterranean climate.
Not in Barcelona. The rain is pretty evenly spaced throughout the year except for September and October, when about 30% of the total for a normal year falls. I don't know why they get this fall spike.
Quoting 84. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I have never flagged a post since I have been here, but I just flagged #80.
Thanks. Seems like there's always one guy who spent most of his time at a party dropping things in the punch bowl.
There ya go Ped!

Finally a break from the rain. I was drenched after class at UCF. The downpours today in Orlando were absolutely ridiculous. It is like the faucet was turned on and someone just walked away.
Quoting 91. HurricaneHunterJoe:

There ya go Ped!




BOOYA
Quoting 92. Michfan:

Finally a break from the rain. I was drenched after class at UCF. The downpours today in Orlando were absolutely ridiculous. It is like the faucet was turned on and someone just walked away.


Here in Soo Cal............I yearn to be drenched.
That's insane ( plus 84h, 1st Feb. 1200PM GMT, wave heights in feet, black means 48 or more ). Wave period should reach its peak (around 20 sec) a few hours later near the UK/Irish coasts.

Last Run: Thursday 28th January 2016 6pm. Source : Magicseaweed.com.
96. vis0

Quoting 73. sar2401:

I do remember about the low in the Gulf. Now, what do you think about next Tuesday down this way? Might be in a bit of jam then. It's almost scary watching the GFS and ECMWF pump out almost identical storms when we're five days out.
It'll have a 20% higher opportunity of being that classic storm than the recent snowmageddon that once up north some call a nor'easter, that you mentioned as "what if that snowmageddon storm a week ago would have slowed up more while wrapping up. If that previous LOW could've wrapped up i could see 3-7 more inches for  Washington DC (DCa would have had 2 LESS inches, aka the vacuum effect  : - P) and Long Island would have had 10-14 inches more.

THE FOLLOWING IS NOT AN OFFICIAL FORECAST heck to most its a joke so enjoy the laff, is good fer ya.
Now as the 5-7 days away low besides being better wrapped up by 20% as to its direction depends on the amount of "umph" the El Nio jet stream plume has if one interacts with that net LOW.  If its energy comes from a 2.4 or warmer heat source it'll go more out to sea but could become Bonnie.
2. to 2.3 do as snowmageddon 1 but better wrapped as to speed that will be the question, if ENSO plume is lower than 2.0 it'll head straight towards the NEast but more over land.
---------------------------------------------
As to LouisPasteur comment as to sar2401 that would be a he said she, he said he, ha ha ha,  AFLAC

-------------------------------------------
As to the Pineapple Connection, i heard it first via The WxCh 1988 though i thought  FOR ME i thought i heard it on GMA ~1986 but not sure, still your observation was much earlier, of course we'll all google it to see what stories come up.
------------------------------------------
FINALLY i get a cookie, being sae2401 said that if one was a kid/teen during the 1960s and experienced no artificial psychedelic phenomena (my words) they'd get a golden cookie. Yeah (vis0 does an air-10), my first cookie (CRUNCHHHHH! -sound of teeth breaking off  ..darn its really gold how am i too eat this with milk, what dip it in molt n steel?
Quoting 74. sar2401:

That's not SAL down there in the crook between the two hills, is it? We don't want any of that stuff showing up yet. :-)


Yes it's the SAL... But today it was weaker than yesterday. The sky wasn't as "milky". I don't like milky skies, SAL and El Nino ;) But I guess nobody here will be surprised in that....
2.11" of rain in the last 2 days, Bellingham int airport rep. 58 mph wind gust 70's in the mtns. Miner flooding, but with lowering snow level to 1000 feet rivers will start dropping.

In non weather related news, my wife just witnessed a head on collision that killed someone! Some idiot tried to pass 5 cars and a semi. She saw that the kid wasnt going to make it and slammed on the brakes, avoiding the accident by 30'. She is totally shaken up, sad and angry that the jerk survied with hardly a scratch, and the person he hit is dead in a ditch. Please drive safe everyone. :o
Quoting 91. HurricaneHunterJoe:

There ya go Ped!




mm/hr ? we need inches per hour, for a little while at least.
Quoting 99. chasSoCal:



mm/hr ? we need inches per hour, for a little while at least.


Think that yellow/orange batch is 1.0-2.25 inches in 6 hours. 1.0"=25mm
That batch is 5-10mm per hour
The web breeds pretenders.
102. vis0
http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local//item/90 536-navy-jet-likely-caused-todays-sonic-booms-mili tary-says-/

"As with all flight operations, the Navy takes precautions to lessen the
impact of testing and training activities on the community. Military
aircraft routinely conduct supersonic flights offshore in an area called
the Test Track, which parallels the entire coast of the Delmarva
Peninsula. Test aircraft from the naval air station execute supersonic
flights almost daily in the test track, and most of these sonic booms
are never felt on land. However, under certain atmospheric conditions
there is an increased potential to hear the sound.
"

i think its more like If the pilots points the engines exhaust toward populated areas they'll here it. Really, 9 supersonic LOUD when if they usually do this its not heard must've been one of the Hydra heads breathing towards NYC.

Like helicopter which are over head or a blimp if they do cross wind with the back rotor you won't know they are there.
Over my Apt police copter constantly (since 1982) make loud sounds with rotor, veteran friend of mine says its done purposely, why? ...that's my secret for a few more months.

WEATHER:: The Pineapple Connection seems to be splitting one towards Seattlelite other towards centra;l Ca, which looks richer in moisture?  anyone can reply.

Saw a wicked bolide meteor in the western sky. Was awesome.
You can see how warm and humid it is expected to be from the Rio Grande to the Mississippi, with the jet blowing across the region in time for Tues/Weds

Jet stream winds [Tues Link] [Weds Link]

2 m temp/rel humidity 10 m wind [GFS 18z Link]

500 mb wind/vorticity [GFS 18z Link]
Quoting 102. vis0:

http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local//item/90 536-navy-jet-likely-caused-todays-sonic-booms-mili tary-says-/

"As with all flight operations, the Navy takes precautions to lessen the
impact of testing and training activities on the community. Military
aircraft routinely conduct supersonic flights offshore in an area called
the Test Track, which parallels the entire coast of the Delmarva
Peninsula. Test aircraft from the naval air station execute supersonic
flights almost daily in the test track, and most of these sonic booms
are never felt on land. However, under certain atmospheric conditions
there is an increased potential to hear the sound.
"

i think its more like If the pilots points the engines exhaust toward populated areas they'll here it. Really, 9 supersonic LOUD when if they usually do this its not heard must've been one of the Hydra heads breathing towards NYC.

Like helicopter which are over head or a blimp if they do cross wind with the back rotor you won't know they are there.
Over my Apt police copter constantly (since 1982) make loud sounds with rotor, veteran friend of mine says its done purposely, why? ...that's my secret for a few more months.

WEATHER:: The Pineapple Connection seems to be splitting one towards Seattlelite other towards centra;l Ca, which looks richer in moisture?  anyone can reply.



Im sick of the split stream.....Soo Cal usually gets the dry ends.....but maybe different this time?
Quoting 95. 999Ai2016:

That's insane ( plus 84h, 1st Feb. 1200PM GMT, wave heights in feet, black means 48 or more ). Wave period should reach its peak (around 20 sec) a few hours later near the UK/Irish coasts.

Last Run: Thursday 28th January 2016 6pm. Source : Magicseaweed.com.
No, it's only insane if it has no connection to reality. If it actually happens like this, it's more like...holy cow! :-) It does seem to stretch credulity to predict 48 foot average wave heights over an area that appears to be about twice the size of Ireland and the British Isles.
Quoting 94. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Here in Soo Cal............I yearn to be drenched.

We're about to have the firehose turned our way. I'll be thinking dry and draughty thoughts while hunkering down, watching my rain gage tick off the 1/100th's.
Truckee, CA Forecast
Quoting 105. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Im sick of the split stream.....Soo Cal usually gets the dry ends.....but maybe different this time?


no it will be not as wet
a 3rd main tropical stream will traverse epac up and out over se gom towards fla with energy injected from the west driving se into it expect things to get interesting in a big way soon 72 hrs from now or so lots of weather coming for many
Quoting 102. vis0:

http://www.newsworks.org/index.php/local//item/90 536-navy-jet-likely-caused-todays-sonic-booms-mili tary-says-/

"As with all flight operations, the Navy takes precautions to lessen the
impact of testing and training activities on the community. Military
aircraft routinely conduct supersonic flights offshore in an area called
the Test Track, which parallels the entire coast of the Delmarva
Peninsula. Test aircraft from the naval air station execute supersonic
flights almost daily in the test track, and most of these sonic booms
are never felt on land. However, under certain atmospheric conditions
there is an increased potential to hear the sound.
"

i think its more like If the pilots points the engines exhaust toward populated areas they'll here it. Really, 9 supersonic LOUD when if they usually do this its not heard must've been one of the Hydra heads breathing towards NYC.

Like helicopter which are over head or a blimp if they do cross wind with the back rotor you won't know they are there.
Over my Apt police copter constantly (since 1982) make loud sounds with rotor, veteran friend of mine says its done purposely, why? ...that's my secret for a few more months.

WEATHER:: The Pineapple Connection seems to be splitting one towards Seattlelite other towards centra;l Ca, which looks richer in moisture?  anyone can reply.

I obviously don't know what really happened but, as the Navy said, they do conduct a lot of supersonic operations over the Test Track. It's called that because almost all the Navy and Marine aircraft that are either new or being tested for acceptance after upgrades get supersonic flight tests offshore. They are apparently doing a lot of testing on the new F-35C that's able to do supersonic cruise speeds without using the afterburner. Given the frequency of these operations, either some pilot today decided to try to cause sonic booms over NJ, even though that meant the entire flight gets grounded (which leads to a severe thrashing for the pilot who did it by the other pilots behind the hanger later), mounds of paperwork, and no liberty, or it really was something atmospheric today that caused it.

And what's this about a police helicopter over your apartment since 1982? Do they do air to air refueling for the helicopters there. :-)
Quoting 89. sar2401:

Not in Barcelona. The rain is pretty evenly spaced throughout the year except for September and October, when about 30% of the total for a normal year falls. I don't know why they get this fall spike.


Maybe due to it's Mediterranean climate. Rome peaks rainfall in October and November as does Monte Carlo. East of the Italian peninsula it seems to stretch out a bit more evenly from Sep-Jan. Actually, the further east you go along the Mediterranean coast the more spaced out rainfall becomes, peaking around November-December. Not too sure how winds play into it, I know Ferrel/midlatitude cells generally bring in winds from the west to south but how they vary seasonally I have no idea. Paging barb...

Found this blip: The climatological features of mesoscale rain activities over
the Mediterranean Region (5◦ W–35◦ E and 32◦ N–48◦ N)
are examined using the TRMM 3B42 and 2A25 rain products.
Results show substantial regional differences of MR
rainfall. The maximum rainfall (3–5 mm day−1
) occurs over
the mountain regions of Europe, while the minimum rainfall
is over north Africa (∼0.5 mm day−1
). Over the Mediterranean
Sea, an average rainrate of ∼1–2 mm day−1
is observed
with a maximum rainrate found over the western
Mediterranean Sea. The main rainy season over the Mediterranean
Sea extends from October to March, but maximum
rainfall occurs during November–December. There are preferred
areas of intensified rain activities over MR. Rain systems
first emerge in the western MR, and then extend eastward
up to Middle East. In addition, a southward (northward)
propagation of rain systems is also clearly seen during
the winter (spring-summer) season. These features indicate
that the MR precipitation is strongly associated with the
mesoscale disturbances originating from both mid-latitudes
and tropics. A detailed investigation is under way to better
understand these MR rain systems, their inter-annual variability,
and mechanisms.

Wasn't too helpful about why exactly this happens but rather mapping out monthly rainfall rates over ten years from the TRMM satellite. [Link]
Quoting 108. oldnewmex:


We're about to have the firehose turned our way. I'll be thinking dry and draughty thoughts while hunkering down, watching my rain gage tick off the 1/100th's.
Truckee, CA Forecast
Looks like a wet and windy storm, even over the hill into Reno this time. It's going to be another tough weekend trying to make it to or back from the ski slopes.
Quoting 108. oldnewmex:


Whoops. Dupe...
117. vis0
CREDIT:: NOAA, ERAU
PERIOD:: 20160128;2015_29;0215z
SAT TYPE:: Filtered blend of 2 NOAA & ERAU products, final product not a NOAA nor ERAU product.
NOTE1:: Did not enhance or adjust to the best as i did the previous years, too much work. (except for frame #5 oops carried away)
NOTE2:: 90 mins before and after the sun sweeps THE DAYLIGHT SIDE of the FUNKTOPGAL IMAGERY UNDER-REPRESENTS the PRECIPITATION AMOUNT.
NOTE3:: HOW (to try to) READ -
The brighter whites represent the highest precipitation of the plateau colour it is surrounded by.
Grey = least precip, bright white on grey means drizzle,
Blue = light precip., bright white on blue mean light to moderate precip.,
Green = moderate precip., bright white on Green means moderate to heavy precip.

For frame
5 take a guess it has more detail as to cloud types.
Last frame
just a joke as to earlier comments as to the 1960s.

Pineapple express, pineapple connection - the Q is, ¿it the whole or sliced variety?..what HHjoe wants the entire tree?...uh not from "tree".
[WxU fitted, 592x469]

View https://youtu.be/yne3aEjBnwk on YouTube org. dimension 960x240
FWIF, which probably isn't much, we (Charleston, SC) had an intense sonic boom on Tuesday at about 12:45 p.m. No confirmation of it being specifically military other than the standard "military air operations might have been being conducted offshore at that time" sort of thing.
Guess they're having fun testing whatever it is.
Meanwhile, we are back to rain rain and more rain; 2 hours of snow flurries last weekend might be it for our winter?
Quoting 113. win1gamegiantsplease:



Maybe due to it's Mediterranean climate. Rome peaks rainfall in October and November as does Monte Carlo. East of the Italian peninsula it seems to stretch out a bit more evenly from Sep-Jan. Actually, the further east you go along the Mediterranean coast the more spaced out rainfall becomes, peaking around November-December. Not too sure how winds play into it, I know Ferrel/midlatitude cells generally bring in winds from the west to south but how they vary seasonally I have no idea. Paging barb...

Found this blip: The climatological features of mesoscale rain activities over
the Mediterranean Region (5◦ W–35◦ E and 32◦ N–48◦ N)
are examined using the TRMM 3B42 and 2A25 rain products.
Results show substantial regional differences of MR
rainfall. The maximum rainfall (3–5 mm day−1
) occurs over
the mountain regions of Europe, while the minimum rainfall
is over north Africa (∼0.5 mm day−1
). Over the Mediterranean
Sea, an average rainrate of ∼1–2 mm day−1
is observed
with a maximum rainrate found over the western
Mediterranean Sea. The main rainy season over the Mediterranean
Sea extends from October to March, but maximum
rainfall occurs during November–December. There are preferred
areas of intensified rain activities over MR. Rain systems
first emerge in the western MR, and then extend eastward
up to Middle East. In addition, a southward (northward)
propagation of rain systems is also clearly seen during
the winter (spring-summer) season. These features indicate
that the MR precipitation is strongly associated with the
mesoscale disturbances originating from both mid-latitudes
and tropics. A detailed investigation is under way to better
understand these MR rain systems, their inter-annual variability,
and mechanisms.

Wasn't too helpful about why exactly this happens but rather mapping out monthly rainfall rates over ten years from the TRMM satellite. [Link]
OK, then, it's all clear now. :-) I know Madrid is dry in summer but also has that fall peak while rain decreases in the winter, exactly the opposite of what we see in California. It must have something to do with when storms come down the the rest of the Continent and when they arrive from North Africa.
Link / Recent summer temperatures in Europe are likely the warmest of the last two millennia, study shows, Phys.org, January 28, 2016.
"Most of Europe has experienced strong summer warming over the course of the past several decades, accompanied by severe heat waves in 2003, 2010 and 2015. New research now puts the current warmth in a 2100-year historical context using tree-ring information and historical documentary evidence to derive a new European summer temperature reconstruction.
- The evidence suggests that past natural changes in summer temperature are larger than previously thought, suggesting that climate models may underestimate the full range of future extreme events, including heat waves. This past variability has been associated with large volcanic eruptions and changes in the amount of energy received from the sun.
- The new research finding that temperatures over the past 30 years lie outside the range of these natural variations supports the conclusions reached by the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) that recent warming is mainly caused by anthropogenic activity."
___
Link / 90mph gales warning as Storm Gertrude hits UK, Belfast Telegraph, 01/29/16 :
The Met Office has issued an amber ''be prepared'' warning for high winds in Northern Ireland, Scotland and north west and north east England.
Yellow ''be aware'' warnings for rain, snow and ice are in place across much of the UK.
Forecasters said: ''West to south-westerly gales are expected to develop widely across Scotland, Northern Ireland and parts of northern England early on Friday.
''Winds are expected to widely gust 60-70mph, possibly up to 80mph along exposed coasts and over hills. (...) The Met Office said gusts of up to 90mph across Orkney and Shetland are likely."
Let me just say I love this site and use it all the time for my weather both locally and for tropical threats. It is always on my first list of what to check. That being said, the climate science legal defense fund is a little odd or maybe even scary to me. Science is and should be apparent to those who understand it and ultimately transparent. There are known issues with burning hydrocarbons that emit pollutants that are well known and great expense is done to mitigate it. I get that certain industries are going to protect themselves whenever a byproduct of whatever their product produces is unsafe be it airborne, waterborne etc. But I as an EE engineer who has designed net zero buildings and the most efficient electrical designs possible has concerns as to why I am doing it, if it is to misplace known dependable energy supplies. When you go to a hospital it has to have two primary feeds that should be 99.98% dependable regardless of backup generation. These are standards that were set in place per NFPA years ago. Whether we are dealing with micro-grids or just thinking offset for efficiency, do you want to be the patient that is dependent on when the sun is shining.
The basis for most if not all climate change are models of the climate of the blue ball (earth) of which is vaguely understood. If it was totally understood then it would track with empirical data and could actually be predicted within a certain degree of certainty. That is not happening based on the satellite data, but is based on the revamped land and sea based data. All I can say is that basing any scientific data on models that are not proven is not scientific at all. As an engineer we write code and use models all the time but it is based on proven science. These are tools, never meant to prove or disprove anything except that we expect the systems we design to perform accordingly. If it does not we get sued. I dont think anyone with a science background does not expect our climate to change because it has completely within a 10k year period. But I do expect that if we are to act like scientists then the name calling should go away and a consensus on satellite, land and sea based readings should ensue.
Quoting 103. Patrap:


Saw a wicked bolide meteor in the western sky. Was awesome.
You may not have been the only one pat, make a report and check with other reports:
http://www.amsmeteors.org/members/imo_view/browse _events?country=-1&year=2016
123. vis0

Quoting 106. sar2401:

No, it's only insane if it has no connection to reality. If it actually happens like this, it's more like...holy cow! :-) It does seem to stretch credulity to predict 48 foot average wave heights over an area that appears to be about twice the size of Ireland and the British Isles.
dudes! why ya framing a Max original as a satshot?


HOLY INSANE COW
Middle two weeks of February, folks.
Quoting 118. wishingSCsnow:

FWIF, which probably isn't much, we (Charleston, SC) had an intense sonic boom on Tuesday at about 12:45 p.m. No confirmation of it being specifically military other than the standard "military air operations might have been being conducted offshore at that time" sort of thing.
Guess they're having fun testing whatever it is.
Meanwhile, we are back to rain rain and more rain; 2 hours of snow flurries last weekend might be it for our winter?


People south of me heard it, people north of me heard it, hwut? I guess at that time I was learning about Boltzmann factor, it was neat. Not sonic boom neat, but pretty neat.

Quoting 119. sar2401:

OK, then, it's all clear now. :-) I know Madrid is dry in summer but also has that fall peak while rain decreases in the winter, exactly the opposite of what we see in California. It must have something to do with when storms come down the the rest of the Continent and when they arrive from North Africa.


That article taught me that people can read satellite measurements and make a graph (sure I'm trivializing it but meh). But if winds generally blow west to south in the region North Africa might be a big player, not sure how the itcz plays into it but it goes pretty far north in the (northern hemisphere) summer. They're also affected by extratropical cyclones (not like the North Sea but nevertheless sometimes affected) in the latter half of the calendar year.
Maybe a little snow at my abode Sunday night.

Quoting 102. vis0:

<
WEATHER:: The Pineapple Connection seems to be splitting one towards Seattlelite other towards centra;l Ca, which looks richer in moisture?  anyone can reply.



I hope it's not too wet here. California can have it! Either way, it doesn't seem forecast to be significant here. In fact, it doesn't appear to be significant enough to raise the rivers. Which is good, because I've certainly had a lot of rain today. Actually, most of it fell this morning. It was sunny this afternoon. When it was time to teach, both of my classes were outside on the playground. Boy did they all line up for class in a hurry when I mentioned I brought the Djembe though!

In any case, so far Seattle has received 1.59 inches of rain in the last 72 hours. With our peak hours occurring last night around 10pm, topping out at .16 inches an hour. Now the mountains? They have received quite a bit more. How much depends on exactly where, but enough to cause some flooding.

The Hydrology Section of the Seattle NWS local Discussion:

NO HYDROLOGICALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SO IN THE WAKE OF LAST NIGHT`S RAIN...WE ARE NOW SIMPLY WATCHING AND FORECASTING THE MOVEMENT OF WATER AND FLOOD CRESTS DOWN AREA RIVERS. IN GENERAL...RIVER REACHES NEAR HEADWATERS AND FLASHIER RIVERS HAVE CRESTED AND ARE RECEDING. RIVER RISES ARE STILL OCCURRING ON DOWNSTREAM PORTIONS OF RIVERS FLOWING OFF THE CASCADES. MOST OF THOSE DOWNSTREAM LOCATIONS WILL EXPERIENCE THEIR RESPECTIVE FLOOD CRESTS THIS EVENING. SLOWER RESPONDING POINTS...SUCH AS THOSE ALONG THE LOWER REACHES OF THE SNOQUALMIE RIVER AND ALONG THE SNOHOMISH RIVER...WILL EXPERIENCE CRESTS ON FRI.

I'm all for this "no significant rain" thing, especially given that we are above landslide thresholds for the region...
Briefly rained here just now... hope the rest of it is done by tomorrow morning ....
134. vis0
FYI Those sonic booms were heard in Connecticut, EDIT in 5hrs later:: "In Long Island::" cracked the walls of 3 buildings ( though walls looked those cheapish as in  dry wall types, on the other hand over 100 miles away), caused dishes to fall, moved ceiling fans, some weaker homes seemed to rotate slightly to n fro as it twisting (though if i were them i'd take advantage and have those homes made sturdier before hurricane season is upon us..oh it already is.

MAX needs a bonus chart till June comes along like how many think Bonnie will form ion FebMarch or AprMay hey radio.modulations.

back later and thanks sar2401 you finally ID'd that i probably caught some version of malaria (going to get tested -too late to correct but won't hurt) during the 1970s and always thought it happened on a Puerto Rico trip 1975 when relatives coming back to PR from S. America joined us a grandparents house for 2 weeks, no wonder  i began to forget things after that year plus head is always warmer became less healthier though the later would have happened anyways.
Quoting 129. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Maybe a little snow at my abode Sunday night.




Sure, if ya can't get a bunch of rain, then how about Snow, sure, works for me...


:)
Quoting 135. PedleyCA:



Sure, if ya can't get a bunch of rain, then how about Snow, sure, works for me...


LOL............hoping for something. Still needs to be precipitation before I get either.
Quoting 121. derrickcollier:

Let me just say I love this site and use it all the time for my weather both locally and for tropical threats. It is always on my first list of what to check. That being said, the climate science legal defense fund is a little odd or maybe even scary to me. Science is and should be apparent to those who understand it and ultimately transparent. There are known issues with burning hydrocarbons that emit pollutants that are well known and great expense is done to mitigate it. I get that certain industries are going to protect themselves whenever a byproduct of whatever their product produces is unsafe be it airborne, waterborne etc. But I as an EE engineer who has designed net zero buildings and the most efficient electrical designs possible has concerns as to why I am doing it, if it is to misplace known dependable energy supplies. When you go to a hospital it has to have two primary feeds that should be 99.98% dependable regardless of backup generation. These are standards that were set in place per NFPA years ago. Whether we are dealing with micro-grids or just thinking offset for efficiency, do you want to be the patient that is dependent on when the sun is shining.


*facepalm*

No one is seriously considering any policy that doesn't provide sufficient base-load capacity, least of all to critical infrastructure. At least no one in their rational mind. This is a red herring argument against renewable energy, and you as an electrical engineer should know this.

The basis for most if not all climate change are models of the climate of the blue ball (earth) of which is vaguely understood.


You're an electrical engineer? Really? Maybe my memory is just a tad on the fuzzy side but when I was an undergrad and electrical engineering degree required at least a couple years worth of undergraduate level physics, which also included a section on thermodynamics.

With that underpinning, a few pages of derivation, and looking up some molecular properties of atmospheric gases and you got yourself a basic energy balance model of the planet that is remarkably accurate for predicting global average temperature. In fact, this was done 117 years ago by the father of modern chemistry Svante Arrhenius. Original work along this line was performed even earlier; 1825 by Fourier. Yes, that Fourier of the famous Fourier transform.

If it was totally understood then it would track with empirical data and could actually be predicted within a certain degree of certainty.


It does, and very well considering the complexity of the system being modeled. There are plenty of papers on this subject, and even a whole section dedicated to it in the IPCC reports where they go into quite a bit of detail.

That is not happening based on the satellite data, but is based on the revamped land and sea based data.


Your an excellent example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Satellite data, which you seem to hold as the gold standard, is the most manipulated, corrected, and revised data set there is. As an electrical engineer, I'm surprised you're not aware of exactly how satellite temperature measurements work.

You see, satellites don't measure surface temperature. They can't in fact. The Earth's atmosphere gets in the way. What these satellites do measure is microwave reflectivities. You'll note that this is not temperature. In order to DERIVE a temeperature, the data has to be run through a series of processing that MODELS how microwaves should behave passing through the atmosphere given certain conditions. From that MODEL, temperatures are determined.

But before it can even get that far, the data has to be corrected. Attenuation, noise, drift, angular distortion, so and so forth.

Then, of course, there's the fact that satellites can only measure swaths of the atmosphere. The "surface" temperature measurement is actually a measurement of the lower troposphere, usually 6-10km. Since one of the key aspects of global warming is a warming surface and cooling upper atmosphere, this "averaging" damps any warming (and also cooling) signals.

As an electrical engineer, I'm also surprised you don't understand WHY data is revised. Please, do tell me what sensors have zero errors, never get out of calibration, and never break. Trick question of course, because they don't exist. Raw data is never used without correcting for outliers and biases in the instruments and records in ANY scientific field. In fact, the error analysis of the raw data is often a key discussion topic in a paper, as failing to do so will get your paper rejected pretty damn quick.


All I can say is that basing any scientific data on models that are not proven is not scientific at all.


You have a considerable lack of knowledge on this subject. There are thousands of papers, books, and even a considerable number of websites that discuss this topic at everything from a summary level to getting down nitty gritty details. In fact, the IPCC section on modeling is an excellent resource in this regard (which contains plenty of references to all the physics, chemistry, and calculus you'd care to pour through.

As an engineer we write code and use models all the time but it is based on proven science.


You keep saying proven. There is no proven science. There are theories with strong supporting evidence. If you're looking for proof, see math.

And the science used for climate models? Yeah, that's used every day across many fields. So if, as you claim, it is "unproven", then there is a lot of modern day technology that is built on it. Thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, optical physics, atmospheric chemistry, and the list goes on and on.

So please, enlighten us. What, exactly, is the "unproven" science that climate models are based on? Better yet, where's your model that shows all the other models are incorrect and explains current and historical observations? Where's your published papers on the subject? Because I can do a quick google search and turn up any number of papers, books, etc. to demonstrate your claim of "unproven" science is unequivocally false.

These are tools, never meant to prove or disprove anything except that we expect the systems we design to perform accordingly.


*facepalm*

Climate models are TOOLS. Do you think it's even remotely possible to hand calculate all the mathematical equations for modeling the climate system by hand? Of course not. Just like any other model, the rules, equations, etc. are coded up for a computer to run. The models exist as a RESULT of science,and are used as a TOOL for science.

I have a hard time believing your an engineer of any sort. Any engineer would have been exposed to the fundamental concepts of system modelling. Climate modelling is no different.

I dont think anyone with a science background does not expect our climate to change because it has completely within a 10k year period.


*facepalm*

To affect global climate, there has to be a net gain or net loss of A LOT of energy from the system. Energy doesn't just magically appear or vanish. Thermodynamics. Conservation of energy. Chemistry. Again, people figured this out long before computers ever existed. Anthropogenic global warming was predicted well before Einstein published his theory of relativity. It's not a new result, nor is it new science.

But I do expect that if we are to act like scientists then the name calling should go away and a consensus on satellite, land and sea based readings should ensue.


Nothing like a parting shot of hypocrisy to end your post. You're insinuating that climate scientists are a bunch of cranks running a conspiracy while exposing your own massive ignorance on the subject at the same time (not to mention doing a good job of discrediting your own "electrical engineering" claim).

"Denier" is not name calling. It's descriptive. People like yourself deny science and reality. I don't know what other term could be used succinctly, and typing out "Person who denies science and reality" gets really cumbersome.
Quoting 139. Xyrus2000:


"Denier" is not name calling. It's descriptive. People like yourself deny science and reality. I don't know what other term could be used succinctly, and typing out "Person who denies science and reality" gets really cumbersome.
Nowadays "you're making me uncomfortable with your valid, logical points" is considered a slur. It's a defense mechanism when you're too ashamed to rescind and refine your position.
Well with 1.10" of rain we got the last 24 hrs, puts the total at 5.55".
Pretty decent for a 2 day event here. Looks as if it's the middle on a strong raining season
or a tropical storm went thru with all the standing water, and the water height in the canals and lakes
in the area east and south of Naples, FL.
Hopefully things will dry out before raining season starts, over 4 months away, but if we continue on this
trend, come then, it's going to a problem.
When I read this, I flashed back to Neapolitan's face palm avatar.
LOL

Quoting 139. Xyrus2000:



*facepalm*

No one is seriously considering any policy that doesn't provide sufficient base-load capacity, least of all to critical infrastructure. At least no one in their rational mind. This is a red herring argument against renewable energy, and you as an electrical engineer should know this.

The basis for most if not all climate change are models of the climate of the blue ball (earth) of which is vaguely understood.


You're an electrical engineer? Really? Maybe my memory is just a tad on the fuzzy side but when I was an undergrad and electrical engineering degree required at least a couple years worth of undergraduate level physics, which also included a section on thermodynamics.

With that underpinning, a few pages of derivation, and looking up some molecular properties of atmospheric gases and you got yourself a basic energy balance model of the planet that is remarkably accurate for predicting global average temperature. In fact, this was done 117 years ago by the father of modern chemistry Svante Arrhenius. Original work along this line was performed even earlier; 1825 by Fourier. Yes, that Fourier of the famous Fourier transform.

If it was totally understood then it would track with empirical data and could actually be predicted within a certain degree of certainty.


It does, and very well considering the complexity of the system being modeled. There are plenty of papers on this subject, and even a whole section dedicated to it in the IPCC reports where they go into quite a bit of detail.

That is not happening based on the satellite data, but is based on the revamped land and sea based data.


Your an excellent example of the Dunning-Kruger effect.

Satellite data, which you seem to hold as the gold standard, is the most manipulated, corrected, and revised data set there is. As an electrical engineer, I'm surprised you're not aware of exactly how satellite temperature measurements work.

You see, satellites don't measure surface temperature. They can't in fact. The Earth's atmosphere gets in the way. What these satellites do measure is microwave reflectivities. You'll note that this is not temperature. In order to DERIVE a temeperature, the data has to be run through a series of processing that MODELS how microwaves should behave passing through the atmosphere given certain conditions. From that MODEL, temperatures are determined.

But before it can even get that far, the data has to be corrected. Attenuation, noise, drift, angular distortion, so and so forth.

Then, of course, there's the fact that satellites can only measure swaths of the atmosphere. The "surface" temperature measurement is actually a measurement of the lower troposphere, usually 6-10km. Since one of the key aspects of global warming is a warming surface and cooling upper atmosphere, this "averaging" damps any warming (and also cooling) signals.

As an electrical engineer, I'm also surprised you don't understand WHY data is revised. Please, do tell me what sensors have zero errors, never get out of calibration, and never break. Trick question of course, because they don't exist. Raw data is never used without correcting for outliers and biases in the instruments and records in ANY scientific field. In fact, the error analysis of the raw data is often a key discussion topic in a paper, as failing to do so will get your paper rejected pretty damn quick.


All I can say is that basing any scientific data on models that are not proven is not scientific at all.


You have a considerable lack of knowledge on this subject. There are thousands of papers, books, and even a considerable number of websites that discuss this topic at everything from a summary level to getting down nitty gritty details. In fact, the IPCC section on modeling is an excellent resource in this regard (which contains plenty of references to all the physics, chemistry, and calculus you'd care to pour through.

As an engineer we write code and use models all the time but it is based on proven science.


You keep saying proven. There is no proven science. There are theories with strong supporting evidence. If you're looking for proof, see math.

And the science used for climate models? Yeah, that's used every day across many fields. So if, as you claim, it is "unproven", then there is a lot of modern day technology that is built on it. Thermodynamics, fluid dynamics, optical physics, atmospheric chemistry, and the list goes on and on.

So please, enlighten us. What, exactly, is the "unproven" science that climate models are based on? Better yet, where's your model that shows all the other models are incorrect and explains current and historical observations? Where's your published papers on the subject? Because I can do a quick google search and turn up any number of papers, books, etc. to demonstrate your claim of "unproven" science is unequivocally false.

These are tools, never meant to prove or disprove anything except that we expect the systems we design to perform accordingly.


*facepalm*

Climate models are TOOLS. Do you think it's even remotely possible to hand calculate all the mathematical equations for modeling the climate system by hand? Of course not. Just like any other model, the rules, equations, etc. are coded up for a computer to run. The models exist as a RESULT of science,and are used as a TOOL for science.

I have a hard time believing your an engineer of any sort. Any engineer would have been exposed to the fundamental concepts of system modelling. Climate modelling is no different.

I dont think anyone with a science background does not expect our climate to change because it has completely within a 10k year period.


*facepalm*

To affect global climate, there has to be a net gain or net loss of A LOT of energy from the system. Energy doesn't just magically appear or vanish. Thermodynamics. Conservation of energy. Chemistry. Again, people figured this out long before computers ever existed. Anthropogenic global warming was predicted well before Einstein published his theory of relativity. It's not a new result, nor is it new science.

But I do expect that if we are to act like scientists then the name calling should go away and a consensus on satellite, land and sea based readings should ensue.


Nothing like a parting shot of hypocrisy to end your post. You're insinuating that climate scientists are a bunch of cranks running a conspiracy while exposing your own massive ignorance on the subject at the same time (not to mention doing a good job of discrediting your own "electrical engineering" claim).

"Denier" is not name calling. It's descriptive. People like yourself deny science and reality. I don't know what other term could be used succinctly, and typing out "Person who denies science and reality" gets really cumbersome.
Looks like the worst of it will pass through here in about an hour. And another wicked line seems to be approaching S FL...
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advice #13
HURRICANE WARNING
TROPICAL CYCLONE STAN, CATEGORY ONE (08U)
2:55 PM WST January 29 2016
=============================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Stan, Category One (992 hPa) located at 17.8S 117.8E or 310 km north northwest of Port Hedland and 345 km north northeast of Karratha has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots with gusts of 65 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southeast at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
============
75 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeastern quadrant
60 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant
120 NM from the center in northwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Tropical Cyclone Stan has developed to the north of the Pilbara coast. It continues to track towards the south southeast and approach the Pilbara coast. It is expected to strengthen to category 2 intensity later today or overnight and likely to reach category 3 intensity (severe tropical cyclone) prior to landfall on Saturday afternoon between Wallal and Whim Creek, which includes Port Hedland and Pardoo.

GALES with gusts to 100 km/h are likely to develop in coastal parts between Wallal and Dampier, which includes Port Hedland and Karratha, from early Saturday morning. If the system tracks further to the east then GALES may develop as far east as Bidyadanga. If the system tracks further west then GALES may extend as far west as Mardie during Saturday.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 150 km/h are likely to develop in coastal and adjacent inland parts near the centre during Saturday morning and into the afternoon, including Port Hedland and surrounding areas.

VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with gusts to 170 km/h are possible near the cyclone center prior to landfall on Saturday.

Residents between Wallal and Whim Creek, including Port Hedland, are specifically warned of the potential of a dangerous storm tide as the cyclone center crosses the coast during Saturday. Tides are likely to rise significantly above the normal high tide mark with DAMAGING WAVES and DANGEROUS FLOODING.

Heavy rainfall associated with the system is likely to develop over the Pilbara and far western Kimberley during today and extend further inland as the system continues to track southwards on Saturday. A Flood Watch is current for the Pilbara and Gascoyne Districts. A Flood Warning is current for the De Grey River Catchment, Pilbara Coastal Rivers Catchment and Fortescue River Catchment. see www.bom.gov.au/wa/warnings/ for more details.

Forecast and Intensity
==============
12 HRS 18.7S 118.2E - 55 knots (CAT 2) Northwest of Port Hedland
24 HRS 20.0S 118.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3) Northeast of Port Hedland
48 HRS 24.6S 121.9E - 25 knots (Tropical Low) Overland Western Australia

Additional Information
==============
Tropical Cyclone Stan has developed north of Western Australia.

Dvorak reanalysis at 00z: curved band wrap 0.5 to 0.7 gives a DT of 3.0. Trend was D with MET/PAT of 3.0. FT/CI was 3.0.

At 06z: Curved band wrap of 0.7 gives a DT of 3.0. Trend is D with MET/PAT of 3.0. FT/CI is 3.0 with a current intensity of 45 knots.

Stan has shown signs of intensification over the past 6 hours. Deep convection has persisted near the center.

ASCAT passes about 0100 UTC showed a tight circulation with an area of 35 knot winds to the north of the center and 20 to 30 knots around most other parts.

There is good upper level divergence with good poleward outflow.CIMSS shear at 0300z showed easterly shear about 30 knots although the actual shear the system is experiencing appears lower.

The system will track steadily towards the south southeast and make landfall along the Pilbara coast during Saturday. Recent model track guidance has shifted slightly to the east and a little slower. Steering is being influenced by a mid level ridge to the east and an approaching upper level trough.

With favorable conditions until landfall, Stan should intensify to category 2 later today or overnight and reach category 3 [severe tropical cyclone] prior to crossing the coast. The system is likely to remain at tropical cyclone intensity longer over the inland Pilbara before weakening on Sunday.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
=========================
A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING is in effect for the areas of Bidyadanga to Mardie and extending to inland parts to Marble Bar, Nullagine and Pannawonica
146. MahFL
Hi all, working an extra 1/2 night shift today. Rain stopped here in OP.
147. MahFL
The latest storm to hit the UK produced a gust of 144mph recorded in Scotland's Cairngorm mountain range.
From BBC live blog on storm Gertrude
10:58 Red 'danger to life' alert issued for Shetland as wind speeds forecast to reach 100mph
The Met Office said severe or hazardous weather, which has the potential to cause danger to life or widespread disruption was due to affect Shetland between 12:00 and 16:00 this afternoon.

Quoting 147. MahFL:

The latest storm to hit the UK produced a gust of 144mph recorded in Scotland's Cairngorm mountain range.

Indeed, 194 km/h.

Edit: One hour later 213 km/h = 132 mph at that spot.




Source for updates
Oh, boy!! Shetland Cliff Cam 2
Fantastic close-up views of a Guillemot colony and surrounding cliff faces.


Screenshot, unfortunately without the motion and the incredible noise.
Quoting 139. Xyrus2000:
You're an electrical engineer? Really? Maybe my memory is just a tad on the fuzzy side but when I was an undergrad and electrical engineering degree required at least a couple years worth of undergraduate level physics, which also included a section on thermodynamics.
Having both an EE undergraduate degree and having been on the other side, preparing for ABET accreditation audits as former faculty, I can tell you that standards have been considerably watered down over the years. This is due to imposition of neoliberal philosophy on universities, where the university is considered a business producing degreed students, and students are considered customers seeking degrees (instead of education). For example, as a student I took extra courses in physics and mathematics for enjoyment, but these days that would be highly discouraged, as the department is penalized by money taken out of its budget if it does not meet goals for minimum student hours/degree. So my taking extra hours in math and physics these days would hurt the department metrics and cost the department money. The number of core hours in the discipline were reduced, to pump out the degrees more quickly. Interdisciplinary course requirements also have been reduced by ABET, the accrediting agency. This in the light of rapidly rising tuition costs, as costs for teaching are reduced through increasing use of adjuncts, grad students and temporary lecturers but the number and salaries of administrators skyrocket. I was told by senior faculty the only way to "get ahead" once you reach full professor is to move into administration. These are the facts of life in your new corporate state university.

Nevertheless, back to your original point, a year of physics and a class in engineering thermodynamics are still among the requirements for an EE degree.
P.S. Apologies for the digression... back to weather and climate science...
Stan looks like a character..
Quoting 121. derrickcollier:

Let me just say I love this site and use it all the time for my weather both locally and for tropical threats. It is always on my first list of what to check. That being said, the climate science legal defense fund is a little odd or maybe even scary to me. Science is and should be apparent to those who understand it and ultimately transparent. There are known issues with burning hydrocarbons that emit pollutants that are well known and great expense is done to mitigate it. I get that certain industries are going to protect themselves whenever a byproduct of whatever their product produces is unsafe be it airborne, waterborne etc. But I as an EE engineer who has designed net zero buildings and the most efficient electrical designs possible has concerns as to why I am doing it, if it is to misplace known dependable energy supplies. When you go to a hospital it has to have two primary feeds that should be 99.98% dependable regardless of backup generation. These are standards that were set in place per NFPA years ago. Whether we are dealing with micro-grids or just thinking offset for efficiency, do you want to be the patient that is dependent on when the sun is shining.
The basis for most if not all climate change are models of the climate of the blue ball (earth) of which is vaguely understood. If it was totally understood then it would track with empirical data and could actually be predicted within a certain degree of certainty. That is not happening based on the satellite data, but is based on the revamped land and sea based data. All I can say is that basing any scientific data on models that are not proven is not scientific at all. As an engineer we write code and use models all the time but it is based on proven science. These are tools, never meant to prove or disprove anything except that we expect the systems we design to perform accordingly. If it does not we get sued. I dont think anyone with a science background does not expect our climate to change because it has completely within a 10k year period. But I do expect that if we are to act like scientists then the name calling should go away and a consensus on satellite, land and sea based readings should ensue.
Thank you for a very well written post.
Quoting myself: Don't miss this, folks, this raging sea is absolute spectacular (Cliff Cam 2)! High tide now to boot. (Edit: 152 km/h in Shetland)

Edit, edit: Gales in the early afternoon now up to 169 km/h = 105 mph in the Shetland Islands, uff. Link

Quoting 150. barbamz:

Oh, boy!! Shetland Cliff Cam 2
Fantastic close-up views of a Guillemot colony and surrounding cliff faces.

Screenshot, unfortunately without the motion and the incredible noise.
Quoting 155. barbamz:

Quoting myself: Don't miss this, folks, this raging sea is absolute spectacular! High tide now to boot.



Needed that, take me there please..
Quoting 155. barbamz:

Quoting myself: Don't miss this, folks, this raging sea is absolute spectacular! High tide now to boot.




I had to close the window after staring at it for 15 minutes. lol
Quoting 134. vis0:

FYI Those sonic booms were heard in Connecticut, cracked the walls of 3 buildings( though walls looked those cheapish as in dry wall types, on the other hand over 100 miles away), caused dishes to fall, moved ceiling fans, some weaker homes seemed to rotate slightly to n fro as it twisting (though if i were them i'd take advantage and have those homes made sturdier before hurricane season is upon us..oh it already is.

MAX needs a bonus chart till June comes along like how many think Bonnie will form ion FebMarch or AprMay her radio.

back later and thanks sar2401 you finally ID'd that i probably caught some version of malaria (going to get tested -too late to correct but won't hurt) during the 1970s and always thought it happened on a Puerto Rico trip 1975 when relatives coming back to PR from S. America joined us a grandparents house for 2 weeks, no wonder i began to forget things after that year plus head is always warmer became less healthier though the later would have happened anyways.

There is absolutely no way a sonic boom offshore cracked walls in Connecticut. A jet flying supersonic directly over a structure could crack walls. It's happened before, with one example being Israeli "demonstration" flights over Beirut in 1981-82. They were trying to scare people with the sonic booms, and it worked. Same thing with houses twisting, and ceiling fans being "moved". Some of this is damage people just didn't notice before or a variation of people piling onto a city bus after an accident. Might as well see if we can get the Navy to fix that wall.

It never does hurt to see if you've been exposed to malaria. Do you get unexplained fevers? If so, it's when you have a fever that you need to get tested. The protozoan won't show up any other time without a liver biopsy. If you don't get unexplained fevers, it's not likely you actually contracted malaria.
Quoting 155. barbamz:

Quoting myself: Don't miss this, folks, this raging sea is absolute spectacular! High tide now to boot.


All I'm seeing is an ad for JWPlayer taking up the middle of the screen and some clouds going by. I used the link directly for your post.
Quoting 154. NativeSun:

Thank you for a very well written post.
AFLAC!!
Storm total of 3.89" here in Longwood. January total is 8.23". Infact the whole Orlando Metro saw 3" to 4" Wednesday & Thursday. This now takes nearly every single reporting station in E C FL to its Top 5 wettest January EVER!! Orlando International is in the Top 10.

Also it appears we will do it all over again next week. Her is the sippit from the NWS in Melbourne.

MON-THU...A WEAK PERTURBATION ALOFT WITHIN THE SOUTHERN JET STREAM
COMBINED WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE RETURN FROM THE SOUTH SHOULD
PRODUCE ISOLATED SHOWERS ON MONDAY FROM OKEECHOBEE TO THE TREASURE
COAST SO HAVE ADDED A 20 POP THERE. THEN SE FLOW INCREASES TUE
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. DEEP
LOW PRESSURE IS FCST TO LIFT NE FROM THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TO THE
GREAT LAKES TUE. THE ATTENDANT COLD FRONT IS FCST TO OOZE INTO FL
PENINSULA WED INTO THU WITH INCREASED RAIN CHANCES. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDING IN BEHIND THE FRONT SHOULD PUSH IT THRU BY FRIDAY. SIMILAR
TO THE MOST RECENT EVENT...THE SEVERE THREAT LOOKS LOW BUT PRECIP
WATER VALUES ARE HIGH SO THERE WILL BE A THREAT FOR LOCALLY HEAVY
RAIN.
TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE NORMAL IN THE UPPER 70S/NR 80 MON-TUE
THEN DROP A BIT WED-THU DUE TO MORE CLOUDS AND HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES.
Quoting 152. Skyepony:

Stan looks like a character..



So does this one

Good morning. I picked up 1.46” on Wednesday and 1.02” on Thursday, for a total of 2.48” from the rain event. The Tampa reporting station picked up 2.54” from the event, so we were remarkably close. That brings me to 5.59” for January. This is a lot less than the massive totals in SW FL and some other parts of FL, but is still about 4 inches above average for January. You’d think we were approaching the end of the rainy season given how full lakes, rivers, and drainage ditches are in the area.
Quoting 164. tampabaymatt:

Good morning. I picked up 1.46” on Wednesday and 1.02” on Thursday, for a total of 2.48” from the rain event. The Tampa reporting station picked up 2.54” from the event, so we were remarkably close. That brings me to 5.59” for January. This is a lot less than the massive totals in SW FL and some other parts of FL, but is still about 4 inches above average for January. You’d think we were approaching the end of the rainy season given how full lakes, rivers, and drainage ditches are in the area.


12.98" for Fort Myers for January. I thought we'd break 13" but didn't quite make it.
Quoting 149. barbamz:


Indeed, 194 km/h.

Edit: One hour later 213 km/h = 132 mph at that spot.




Source for updates
The RAF has a radar station at Saxa Vord, on the island of Unst. It was established during WWII, and has remained the furthest north station in the UK. That Saxa Vord station had two huge radars, one in a fiberglass radome and one exposed. The exposed unit was 42 feet long and eight feet tall. Both were supposed to be in a radome for protection, but the RAF ran out of funds for the second radar. Service personnel stationed there are paid a bonus because it is so isolated and the weather is so bad. Turns out it didn't matter how the original radars were protected. A storm in 1959 destroyed both of them and scattered debris 200 yards downhill. It also destroyed some of the station buildings and housing. The RAF rebuilt, but another storm in 1969 destroyed them again. The replacement units were smaller and more stoutly engineered, and they survived until 1992. They were replaced by electronic scanning radar that doesn't need the huge antennas. Nevertheless, the 1969 replacements were damaged again in a 1992 storm. The wind reached 317 kph just before the anemometer took flight and was never seen again. There's a great history of Saxa Vord that chronicles some of the battles fought against man and nature to keep the station open.

This is a picture of the Saxa Vord hill before the 1992 storm:



And after...



The Shetlands are a tough place to live.
Quoting 164. tampabaymatt:

Good morning. I picked up 1.46” on Wednesday and 1.02” on Thursday, for a total of 2.48” from the rain event. The Tampa reporting station picked up 2.54” from the event, so we were remarkably close. That brings me to 5.59” for January. This is a lot less than the massive totals in SW FL and some other parts of FL, but is still about 4 inches above average for January. You’d think we were approaching the end of the rainy season given how full lakes, rivers, and drainage ditches are in the area.
I only ended up 0.12 over the two days but, after my 30 inches in December, that was a good thing. Like you, the ground is still saturated, and the swamps are still full from the river floods. I'm really surprised at how much the water is still up when we've only had 3.13" in January so far, but I guess it was enough to maintain soil saturation. The storm coming in on Tuesday could be another big rain maker, not to mention what looks like a pretty high probability threat of severe weather. Birmingham is already mentioning it in the HWO, and they don't often highlight storms five days out.
Here they are from the NWS from the official reporting sites.

Sanford 6.19"
Daytona Beach 7.04"
Melbourne 7.83"
Orlando Executive 6.35"
Orlando International 5.65"
Vero Beach 9.38"
Leesburg 4.71"
Omagh's flying rabbit: Bunny rescued from roof after Storm Gertrude
BBC, 31 minutes ago (Northern Ireland)
Forget run, rabbit, run - this is a story that's all about fly, rabbit, fly.

-------------------

Storm Gertrude uproots Game of Thrones Dark Hedges
Trees at the Dark Hedges, the now-famous Game of Thrones film location, have been uprooted by Storm Gertrude in Co Antrim in Northern Ireland.
The beech trees were planted in the 18th century by a local family, the Stuarts, with the intent of creating a grand entrance to their nearby Georgian mansion, Gracehill House. ...


CFSv2 trending toward Moderate El-Nino by Fall yet again. I see why the CFSv2 is doing this and it will be interesting to see the Euro Enso update next month to see if the Euro trends with the Euro too. Either way chances of La-Nina this year might be dropping even more.


CFSv2 is blow torching the Caribbean come Fall. This is about as dry as a forecast as you will ever see on any model for a particular region. Yikes!

Quoting 168. sar2401:

I only ended up 0.12 over the two days but, after my 30 inches in December, that was a good thing. Like you, the ground is still saturated, and the swamps are still full from the river floods. I'm really surprised at how much the water is still up when we've only had 3.13" in January so far, but I guess it was enough to maintain soil saturation. The storm coming in on Tuesday could be another big rain maker, not to mention what looks like a pretty high probability threat of severe weather. Birmingham is already mentioning it in the HWO, and they don't often highlight storms five days out.


I'm surprised at how full the drainage ditches are here. Oct, Nov, and Dec were very dry for us, and while 6 inches in January is a lot higher than average, I wouldn't think it would result in enough water to fill the ditches and lakes as much as it has. Things could get bad around here if this pattern doesn't break down. And, with the Melbourne and Tampa NWS agencies highlighting that we could have another repeat of this same rain event next week, it doesn't appear a pattern change is in the cards. After over 73 inches of rain in 2015, I was hoping for at least average rainfall to begin 2016.
Quoting 144. BahaHurican:

Looks like the worst of it will pass through here in about an hour. And another wicked line seems to be approaching S FL...
Looks like clear sailing ahead there until at least Wednesday. Should be sunny with reasonably comfortable temperatures for January. It still got cold overnight, with a low of 24, but it should get to 62 today and then into the 70's over the weekend and into Tuesday before the next storm. That main thing is the sun is finally out again. I walked into the den at 6:00 this morning and seriously thought I'd left the lights on overnight it was so bright. A welcome change.
Huge WWB possibly coming in March. HOLY COW!!!

Quoting 173. tampabaymatt:



I'm surprised at how full the drainage ditches are here. Oct, Nov, and Dec were very dry for us, and while 6 inches in January is a lot higher than average, I wouldn't think it would result in enough water to fill the ditches and lakes as much as it has. Things could get bad around here if this pattern doesn't break down. And, with the Melbourne and Tampa NWS agencies highlighting that we could have another repeat of this same rain event next week, it doesn't appear a pattern change is in the cards. After over 73 inches of rain in 2015, I was hoping for at least average rainfall to begin 2016.
Even with a flood threat, I'll still take this over months of no rain. My soil absorbs moisture pretty well and stores it not far below the surface. A five foot deep planting hole usually gets water in the bottom after a half-hour. We have lots of people here with domestic water supplies from wells less than 50 feet deep. Some are artesian and some need to be pumped, but that depth is good enough for normal water years. Many of the wells ran dry in August of last year. Floods are a temporary problem, but drought is a long lasting and mostly hidden problem.
...
my homemade rain gauge says we picked up almost 5 inches this last event. pretty impressive considering it did not really rain all that heavy . it was a long duration. e.cen fl.

Center of storm "Gertrude" which went over Shetland this morning and is now approaching the western coast of Norway - pic just shot by Terra Modis Satellite.
CFsv2 with with each passing day likely a result of the Feb update coming is showing what could be another big El-Nino come next Winter. Although unlikely to see El-Nino next Fall/Winter but chances are there albeit small right now. One thing is for certain to see that dry of a forecast for the Caribbean Sept/October does NOT bode well for a active Hurricane Season.

What is going on is the PDO refuses to go negative thus giving resistance to any chance of us going to La-Nina or even neutral. If the PDO and ESPI hold strong going into Spring then what we are seeing now on the CFSv2 would pan out and this would be unprecedented to see as a 3 year El-Nino has never happened before.

Quoting 170. barbamz:

Omagh's flying rabbit: Bunny rescued from roof after Storm Gertrude
BBC, 31 minutes ago (Northern Ireland)
Forget run, rabbit, run - this is a story that's all about fly, rabbit, fly.

-------------------

Storm Gertrude uproots Game of Thrones Dark Hedges
Trees at the Dark Hedges, the now-famous Game of Thrones film location, have been uprooted by Storm Gertrude in Co Antrim in Northern Ireland.
The beech trees were planted in the 18th century by a local family, the Stuarts, with the intent of creating a grand entrance to their nearby Georgian mansion, Gracehill House. ...



Aww. It looks like the bunny survived his catapulting experience pretty well. This one of the things that give the fire service a nice image. It's incidents like this that occasionally made me wish I would have become a firefighter...but then I come to my senses.

I'd probably feel worse about that tree being blown over if I knew what King of Thrones was or why that tree was important to the game. It's terrible being so outside of the loop. :-)
Quoting 151. guygee:

Having both an EE undergraduate degree and having been on the other side, preparing for ABET accreditation audits as former faculty, I can tell you that standards have been considerably watered down over the years. This is due to imposition of neoliberal philosophy on universities, where the university is considered a business producing degreed students, and students are considered customers seeking degrees (instead of education). For example, as a student I took extra courses in physics and mathematics for enjoyment, but these days that would be highly discouraged, as the department is penalized by money taken out of its budget if it does not meet goals for minimum student hours/degree. So my taking extra hours in math and physics these days would hurt the department metrics and cost the department money. The number of core hours in the discipline were reduced, to pump out the degrees more quickly. Interdisciplinary course requirements also have been reduced by ABET, the accrediting agency. This in the light of rapidly rising tuition costs, as costs for teaching are reduced through increasing use of adjuncts, grad students and temporary lecturers but the number and salaries of administrators skyrocket. I was told by senior faculty the only way to "get ahead" once you reach full professor is to move into administration. These are the facts of life in your new corporate state university.

Nevertheless, back to your original point, a year of physics and a class in engineering thermodynamics are still among the requirements for an EE degree.
P.S. Apologies for the digression... back to weather and climate science...
This is one of the reasons why private universities are growing at the expense of state institutions, even with the higher tuition. I was lucky enough to get my undergrad degree in 1976 at what was then Cal State Fullerton. Just the whole name change debacle is reflective of what happened while I was there. State colleges were getting more expensive and, even then, more and more students were going to private colleges. The state college system was chronically short of funds and losing professors to private colleges and corporations. The answer to all this - change the name! Yes, a change from California State College to California State University would fix everything. Change all the signs, stationery, student materials, business cards...you name it, plus spend a couple million touting the new and improved name. The way to pay for it? Raise mandatory student association fees. Surprisingly, things haven't got better at good old CSU Fullerton. :-)
SPC already mentioning strong tornadoes possible on Tuesday. Considering its Friday, thats quite a stretch..



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE D4-D6 PERIOD INDICATING A
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR...NRN LA AND NERN
TX...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT EXPANDING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES NWD TO THE OH VALLEY.

ON MON/D4...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AS A STRONG UPPER JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS OK AND TX. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING AS SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN...BUT
INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FAVOR SEVERE STORMS UNTIL LATE IN THE
D4 PERIOD WHEN 60-65 F DEWPOINTS WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT FROM
ARKANSAS SWD. STORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME WITH A FEW
SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR BRIEF
TORNADOES.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
TO THE E ON TUE/D5...WITH BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND ASCENT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE FROM CNTRL AND NRN MS INTO NRN AL...WRN AND MIDDLE TN
DURING THE DAY...OR JUST E OF THE MS RIVER. DESPITE THE WEAK
INSTABILITY...EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR A FEW
TORNADOES...POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO STRONG...ALONG WITH DAMAGING BOWING
STRUCTURES.

SOME SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AFTER 00Z ACROSS AL...THE FL
PANHANDLE...NWRN GA AND PERHAPS ERN TN/KY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT
BE OPTIMAL WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT NWD...LEAVING THE
INSTABILITY BEHIND TO THE S.

..JEWELL.. 01/29/2016
184. vis0
Is there a field or scientific studies group as there was last year , i think was from Washington state to set devices to read / study Atmospheric river moisture?
Good rainy day yesterday followed by a beautiful sunny day today. Looks like Tampa will end up over 6" for the month. Impressive for January. For the dec/jan totals compared to 97/98 we are no where close and in February of '98 we saw over 12". Let's see what El Niño does in February. South Florida has taken the brunt of this El Niño so far.
Quoting 121. derrickcollier:

Let me just say I love this site and use it all the time for my weather both locally and for tropical threats. It is always on my first list of what to check. That being said, the climate science legal defense fund is a little odd or maybe even scary to me. Science is and should be apparent to those who understand it and ultimately transparent. There are known issues with burning hydrocarbons that emit pollutants that are well known and great expense is done to mitigate it. I get that certain industries are going to protect themselves whenever a byproduct of whatever their product produces is unsafe be it airborne, waterborne etc. But I as an EE engineer who has designed net zero buildings and the most efficient electrical designs possible has concerns as to why I am doing it, if it is to misplace known dependable energy supplies. When you go to a hospital it has to have two primary feeds that should be 99.98% dependable regardless of backup generation. These are standards that were set in place per NFPA years ago. Whether we are dealing with micro-grids or just thinking offset for efficiency, do you want to be the patient that is dependent on when the sun is shining.



I really don't know why I should bother, but there is no way you are an engineer currently working on grid power systems. There are a myriad of federal and state agencies that regulate hospitals. Some of them have requirements for constant power, but not one has a requirement for two primary feeds that are supposed to be 99.98% dependable. No utility in their right mind would ever agree to that kind of dependability figure. Very few hospitals have more than one feed, and the ones that do have it is because it's at or near the intersection of two control points, not because it's required. The NFPA is not a regulatory agency. It's an association that proposes codes related to electrical installations and fire fighting. An agency does not have to adopt the NFPA codes, although most do, at least in part. It does not address things like primary power feeds. One of the reasons why hospitals are required to have backup generators is there's no grid power system that won't suffer an outage. No utility company provides a power feed to anywhere that comes from a micro grid up the street. The power comes from all sources, and those change in the course of a day. Even writing something like that tells me you aren't what you say you are.

I don't know if you did a copy and paste from somewhere or dreamed up this word salad on your own, but you're going to have to come up with something more convincing for me to take you seriously.
Quoting 183. hydrus:

SPC already mentioning strong tornadoes possible on Tuesday. Considering its Friday, thats quite a stretch..



DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0305 AM CST FRI JAN 29 2016

VALID 011200Z - 061200Z

...DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE D4-D6 PERIOD INDICATING A
THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER PERHAPS BEGINNING AS EARLY AS LATE MON
NIGHT INTO EARLY TUE MORNING ACROSS PORTIONS OF AR...NRN LA AND NERN
TX...WITH A MORE SUBSTANTIAL THREAT EXPANDING ACROSS THE CNTRL GULF
COAST STATES NWD TO THE OH VALLEY.

ON MON/D4...LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS
AS A STRONG UPPER JET INTENSIFIES ACROSS OK AND TX. LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL BE RAPIDLY INCREASING AS SLY WINDS STRENGTHEN...BUT
INSTABILITY IS NOT EXPECTED TO FAVOR SEVERE STORMS UNTIL LATE IN THE
D4 PERIOD WHEN 60-65 F DEWPOINTS WILL PRECEDE THE COLD FRONT FROM
ARKANSAS SWD. STORMS SHOULD FORM IN THE 06-12Z TIME FRAME WITH A FEW
SUPERCELLS OR SMALL BOWS CAPABLE OF DAMAGING WINDS OR BRIEF
TORNADOES.

THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO MATURE WITH AN INCREASING SEVERE THREAT
TO THE E ON TUE/D5...WITH BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY INCREASING
THROUGHOUT THE DAY. THE BEST OVERLAP OF INSTABILITY AND ASCENT WOULD
APPEAR TO BE FROM CNTRL AND NRN MS INTO NRN AL...WRN AND MIDDLE TN
DURING THE DAY...OR JUST E OF THE MS RIVER. DESPITE THE WEAK
INSTABILITY...EXTREME SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR A FEW
TORNADOES...POSSIBLY ONE OR TWO STRONG...ALONG WITH DAMAGING BOWING
STRUCTURES.

SOME SEVERE THREAT IS LIKELY TO PERSIST AFTER 00Z ACROSS AL...THE FL
PANHANDLE...NWRN GA AND PERHAPS ERN TN/KY...BUT CONDITIONS WILL NOT
BE OPTIMAL WITH THE LOW CONTINUING TO LIFT NWD...LEAVING THE
INSTABILITY BEHIND TO THE S.

..JEWELL.. 01/29/2016
They've been talking about this for the last day or so. The threat really looks worse up your way than down here, at least for now. It depends on how far north the low travels before the cold front comes through. The further north, the less dynamics nearer the coast. This is the first system of the season that really looks like a classic Southeast severe weather maker, and the GFS and ECMWF continue in close basic agreement.

BBC Highlands ‏@BBCHighlands 1 Min.Vor 1 Minute
Met Office-released satellite image showing #StormGertrude passing #Shetland http://bbc.in/1TpoAXm
Quoting 184. vis0:

Is there a field or scientific studies group as there was last year , i think was from Washington state to set devices to read / study Atmospheric river moisture?

No, it was a 2015 study involving CalWater and NOAA. I don't know what universities were involved in the study, but I can't find anything saying it's being repeated this year.
191. vis0

Quoting 158. sar2401:

There is absolutely no way a sonic boom offshore cracked walls in Connecticut. A jet flying supersonic directly over a structure could crack walls. It's happened before, with one example being Israeli "demonstration" flights over Beirut in 1981-82. They were trying to scare people with the sonic booms, and it worked. Same thing with houses twisting, and ceiling fans being "moved". Some of this is damage people just didn't notice before or a variation of people piling onto a city bus after an accident. Might as well see if we can get the Navy to fix that wall.

It never does hurt to see if you've been exposed to malaria. Do you get unexplained fevers? If so, it's when you have a fever that you need to get tested. The protozoan won't show up any other time without a liver biopsy. If you don't get unexplained fevers, it's not likely you actually contracted malaria.
you are correct i in just getting over a bit of a fever really missed adding some key words, added some just now to the original comment, the broken or shaken areas where on Long Island ~100 miles away from the Jets even a veteran interviewed that heard the sounds said they acted as it 3-4 times closer than reported.
Ad to my health::
since that trip (40+ years ago) my head and upper back is 2-4 degrees warmer than the rest of me. i did get checkups every 3-4 yrs  but only 4 thorough checkups.
Here is the catch
(sound of smartie-pants vis0 kicking himself) for whatever reason i'd go after i felt better , and i've told people go when you feel sick meaning that's when whatever is causing the problem has a better chance of showing up AS YOU SAID. From age 11 till 45 i get unexplained fever once every 6-9 months, after 45 every 4-6 month and more after going out in the cold as if my body naturally wants to get warmer but then stays warming after i get indoors, thanks    Dr.       nurse    tough cookie with many caring, to the point thoughts sar2401 , i promise during the next fever i'm heading towards the medical Dr's office.

Weather:: it appears that the pineapple connection in Ca., like the version in Florida yesterday is a bit more than predicted
Quoting 184. vis0:

Is there a field or scientific studies group as there was last year , i think was from Washington state to set devices to read / study Atmospheric river moisture?



Good Morning! Have just a minute to pop in before I walk out the door. I'll check back at nap time.

There has been the OLYMPEX project in the Olympic Mountains of Washington that started a few months ago. It isn't to measure AR's per se, but more to compare actual rainfall totals to satellite estimates. Some areas of Olympic National Park are so remote, they took in the weather equipment by mule.
Quoting 185. Bucsboltsfan:

Good rainy day yesterday followed by a beautiful sunny day today. Looks like Tampa will end up over 6" for the month. Impressive for January. For the dec/jan totals compared to 97/98 we are no where close and in February of '98 we saw over 12". Let's see what El Niño does in February. South Florida has taken the brunt of this El Niño so far.


Looks like we'll have 5 days of nice weather, including a return to the 80s for highs, before what appears to be a repeat of this past rain event occurs.
Same thing here Sar. Most wells in this part of cotton country are surprisingly shallow. My soil is hard clay. Cotton, tobacco and sweet potato love it. Go 10 miles nw and you start into more Sandy soil with much better drainage.

I've always been tempted to dig my own well. My neighbor had professionals dig his 100'. It would be great for pool and irrigation since water and sewer have become so expensive. For now I just conserve as much water as possible with rain barrels, mulch, rain gardens, etc.

Our well in Maine was gundrilled and over 600' deep. Our house was built on a blasted granite ledge.


Quoting 176. sar2401:

Even with a flood threat, I'll still take this over months of no rain. My soil absorbs moisture pretty well and stores it not far below the surface. A five foot deep planting hole usually gets water in the bottom after a half-hour. We have lots of people here with domestic water supplies from wells less than 50 feet deep. Some are artesian and some need to be pumped, but that depth is good enough for normal water years. Many of the wells ran dry in August of last year. Floods are a temporary problem, but drought is a long lasting and mostly hidden problem.
Quoting 172. StormTrackerScott:

CFSv2 is blow torching the Caribbean come Fall. This is about as dry as a forecast as you will ever see on any model for a particular region. Yikes!




Still wet at my place lol.

But I don't trust that CFS prediction. We haven't even passed the spring barrier yet. Come on!
Snowing here at a pretty good clip
This subtropical jet is no joke. It seems to be winning over the cold front that pushed through Florida overnight and is still bringing upper level moisture to south FL.

Quoting 103. Patrap:


Saw a wicked bolide meteor in the western sky. Was awesome.
I wonder if the was connected to the booms heard in Jersey and Conn...Could have been a piece of what you saw over there.
Quoting 198. Drakoen:

Snowing here at a pretty good clip
Sunny conditions outside now.
Quoting 175. StormTrackerScott:

Huge WWB possibly coming in March. HOLY COW!!!


Scott you need to chill.
Quoting 199. tampabaymatt:

This subtropical jet is no joke. It seems to be winning over the cold front that pushed through Florida overnight and is still bringing upper level moisture to south FL.




Euro brings a nice slug of rain across S FL Monday. February rainfall records could be in jeopardy across C & S FL as February looks extremely wet.
Quoting 202. Gearsts:

Scott you need to chill.


Notice how those winds move all the way up to FL. Euro weeklies that came out last night show one heck of a wet signal across FL the next 4 weeks.
Quoting 202. Gearsts:

Scott you need to chill.


Maybe that is why he lives in Florida, so he doesn't?
What is WWB?
Quoting 178. islander101010:

my homemade rain gauge says we picked up almost 5 inches this last event. pretty impressive considering it did not really rain all that heavy . it was a long duration. e.cen fl.


I ended up with 5 inches of rain in Melbourne. Even spread over days everyone's pastures look more like swamps this morning.

Meant to back you up the other day about the mosquitoes.. Everything you've ranted on about them is true. I've never seen a winter here where they have been this bad. When it gets a little cold they just line up to get in the house if they can.
Quoting 202. Gearsts:

Scott you need to chill.
That model predicted a moderate El nino for the summer of 2012 and it never happened.Most experts are now expecting a la nina come fall.
Quoting 205. daddyjames:



Maybe that is why he lives in Florida, so he doesn't?
What is WWB?

WWB= Westward Wind Burst. Referring to the Pacific..helps draw the warm water to the surface and perpetuate El Niño.
Quoting 198. Drakoen:

Snowing here at a pretty good clip
It was snowing a bit before, but sunny now. We are going to warm into the 50s and 60s early next week, before turning back to a colder pattern.
Quoting 207. washingtonian115:

That model predicted a moderate El nino for the summer of 2012 and it never happened.Most experts are now expecting a la nina come fall.
I like to post CFS 8 month forecast but i know it will change. Scott thinks that every CFS run will happen even a year from now.
Quoting 207. washingtonian115:

That model predicted a moderate El nino for the summer of 2012 and it never happened.Most experts are now expecting a la nina come fall.

That model picked the most recent WWB pretty well and after many had declared peak and done...

ESPI is in a down cycle, which it always cycles. It hasn't crashed, it's 1.92 at the moment. Should still be a pretty notable El Nino still going on in 6 weeks to 2 months.
Quoting 208. Skyepony:


WWB= Westward Wind Burst. Referring to the Pacific..helps draw the warm water to the surface and perpetuate El Niño.


Thanks! I just had forgotten . . .
Quoting 210. Gearsts:

I like to post CFS 8 month forecast but i know it will change. Scott thinks that every CFS run will happen even a year from now.


Not @ all infact if you read my post more clearly you will see I said the chances of this happening are small but I think it should be posted yes because it appears we've entered into an era that favors a POSITIVE PDO like the early 1990's. This fact cannot and should not be ignored and could what the CFSv2 is signaling. Again never did I say we would have El-Nino infact I said i favor neutral but at this point it appears there will not be a La-Nina this year. I really wish people would read the post instead of just looking a graph and assuming as it will make you look better on here.
Quoting 200. hydrus:

I wonder if the was connected to the booms heard in Jersey and Conn...Could have been a piece of what you saw over there.
Could have been an atmosphere skimmer, just passing through. If so it was probably a pretty large chunk, and would have had to be at just the right altitude to light up and create a sonic boom and still exit the atmosphere afterwards or last until it passed over New Orleans. Pat, what direction was the bolide you saw traveling?
The bolide I saw was coming down from the High Western sky,down to Western Horizon. Burned up about a fist held at arm's length from the Western Horizon.




12PM weather ... variably cloudy, 84F, Wind E 8mph, and a little humid (70%)





We had a couple of showers earlier today. 24h rainfall : 5mm/0.2inch
Quoting 212. tampabaymatt:




Fading..
Global Temperature in 2015 [pdf]

..."for fun and for education, we repeat a figure (Fig. 7) from last year’s temperature update9 showing El Niño predictions that were available at that time. All of the models save two predicted that the very weak tropical warming underway at that time would fade away over the summer and fall. Two models, the NCEP (NOAA’s National Centers for Environmental Protection) and LDEO(Columbia University’s Lamont Doherty Earth Observatory) models, essentially got it right, predicting the Niño3.4 temperature to bottom out in late winter and then a strong El Niño to begin to grow over thesummer and presumably peak in the early winter as El Niños usually do"...


Fig. 7. IRI/CPC Pacific Niño 3.4 SST Model Outlook

Good Morning. The weather cleared up nicely for Florida today (sunny and warm here in Tallahassee) and other parts of Conus are also dominated by warm high pressure....................Not your typical late January temps for many parts:

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
AS OF 3 AM FRIDAY... UNSEASONABLE WARMTH EXPECTED OVER THE
WEEKEND AS HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS OFF THE COAST. MID LEVEL FLOW WILL
INITIALLY BY OF LOW AMPLITUDE BUT SOME FLAT RIDGING WILL DEVELOP
OVER THE BAHAMAS BY SUNDAY. THE CONTINUATION OF WARM ADVECTION
THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL PUSH AFTERNOON HIGHS FROM THE LOW 60S ON
SATURDAY INTO THE UPPER 60S BY SUNDAY. THE WARMER MAV GUIDANCE
EVEN HINTS THAT SOME PLACES COULD HIT 70. CLOUD COVER SHOULD BE AT
A MINIMUM THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD.
Quoting 170. barbamz:

Omagh's flying rabbit: Bunny rescued from roof after Storm Gertrude
BBC, 31 minutes ago (Northern Ireland)
Forget run, rabbit, run - this is a story that's all about fly, rabbit, fly.

-------------------

Storm Gertrude uproots Game of Thrones Dark Hedges
Trees at the Dark Hedges, the now-famous Game of Thrones film location, have been uprooted by Storm Gertrude in Co Antrim in Northern Ireland.
The beech trees were planted in the 18th century by a local family, the Stuarts, with the intent of creating a grand entrance to their nearby Georgian mansion, Gracehill House. ...





That rabbit story comes across as being a "hare-raising" experience.
Quoting 180. StormTrackerScott:

CFsv2 with with each passing day likely a result of the Feb update coming is showing what could be another big El-Nino come next Winter. Although unlikely to see El-Nino next Fall/Winter but chances are there albeit small right now. One thing is for certain to see that dry of a forecast for the Caribbean Sept/October does NOT bode well for a active Hurricane Season.

What is going on is the PDO refuses to go negative thus giving resistance to any chance of us going to La-Nina or even neutral. If the PDO and ESPI hold strong going into Spring then what we are seeing now on the CFSv2 would pan out and this would be unprecedented to see as a 3 year El-Nino has never happened before.




The PDO tends to stay in one phase or the other for ~two decades. Short excursions to opposite phase occur but there is a lot of signal at the couple decade time scale.

I have absolutely no idea why and suspect if the theory is worked out (it isn't now at all! Our knowledge is just descriptive) it will be much more complex than El Nino.
Quoting 199. tampabaymatt:

This subtropical jet is no joke. It seems to be winning over the cold front that pushed through Florida overnight and is still bringing upper level moisture to south FL.




Well even the most stacked cold fronts aren't deep enough to divert a jet which is much higher altitude, that is the job of the upper trough. The strength of the longwave trough in terms of amplification is linked to the amount of cold air reaches a region. The upper trough wasn't particularly amplified, and there wasn't a major cold push associated with it, so that's the reason for the jet holding tight.

Also, it's El Nino in late January. As you may have noticed, the jet has been hanging near or over Florida just about the whole month.
Quoting 154. NativeSun:

Thank you for a very well written post.


When the context of the post is complete nonsense then when the post is well written this will only make it easier to discern that the context of the post is complete nonsense. A poorly written post that is containing complete nonsense may actually have a better chance of disguising the fact that the context of the post is complete nonsense. Either way, complete nonsense is still complete nonsense, no matter how it is written.
That continued elongated Pacific jet is helping to pull warm (dry air now) out of the E-pac into the Mid-West now that the very moist flow yesterday has pushed East;   




Interesting....

For our South Florida bloggers, am I correct in assuming that the flow down there on the Satt loop is just streaming high flying clouds?..................The radar is clear as a bell at ground level:

Southeast sector loop

Quoting 188. sar2401:

They've been talking about this for the last day or so. The threat really looks worse up your way than down here, at least for now. It depends on how far north the low travels before the cold front comes through. The further north, the less dynamics nearer the coast. This is the first system of the season that really looks like a classic Southeast severe weather maker, and the GFS and ECMWF continue in close basic agreement.


This is 5 days out, and the models have a good handle on it already. How often does that happen, you ask yourself? I think almost never.

And I'll probably get general thunderstorms... :'(
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 229. weathermanwannabe:

For our South Florida bloggers, am I correct in assuming that the flow down there on the Satt loop is just streaming high flying clouds?..................The radar is clear as a bell at ground level:

Southeast sector loop




Those are all high clouds produced by the subtropical jet. Whenever that jet has been streaming over C FL, we end up with lots of high clouds.
Quoting 185. Bucsboltsfan:

Good rainy day yesterday followed by a beautiful sunny day today. Looks like Tampa will end up over 6" for the month. Impressive for January. For the dec/jan totals compared to 97/98 we are no where close and in February of '98 we saw over 12". Let's see what El Nio does in February. South Florida has taken the brunt of this El Nio so far.


While December and February were highly wet, most of Florida wasn't very wet in January '98. This January has been much wetter, and many places in Central and South Florida have set a new record for the wettest January on record or in the top 5.
Also, December may have been dry in Central Florida, but it was very, very wet in South Florida, which went from severe to in some places extreme drought, to no drought at all and saturation in many places which is extremely impressive. Some places had 10-15 inches of rain in just a two week stretch and set new records for the wettest December.

I've posted many times about this, and I'll say it again as a reminder. El Nino is not directly proportional to heavy rain and severe weather in Florida. It does increase the chances significantly, especially stronger ones but it doesn't guarantee it. El Nino is a short term climate cycle.
For the same reason, rainfall and thunderstorm impacts from El Nino's will vary from place to place, week to week, and month to month, because climate shifts are just an average, but there are many, many factors that go into shaping upcoming weather events.

One thing is for sure though, much of north Florida and south Florida went from significant drought, to seeing the drought erased, and rainfall records reached, and there has been periods of significant severe weather, including above average amounts of tornado and severe weather damage for January and one of if not the strongest tornado to strike the Ft. Myers area on record. Even looking at the Tampa area, there has been a lot more rain, thunderstorms, and cool weather in the Tampa Bay area for January, than there was in January 98, so yes, this El Nino even has already proven to be major, we'll see what February and March may bring, which historically is when El Nino can on average be the most brutal in Florida in terms of heavy rain and severe weather.
Quoting 186. sar2401:

Quoting 121. derrickcollier:

Let me just say I love this site and use it all the time for my weather both locally and for tropical threats. It is always on my first list of what to check. That being said, the climate science legal defense fund is a little odd or maybe even scary to me. Science is and should be apparent to those who understand it and ultimately transparent. There are known issues with burning hydrocarbons that emit pollutants that are well known and great expense is done to mitigate it. I get that certain industries are going to protect themselves whenever a byproduct of whatever their product produces is unsafe be it airborne, waterborne etc. But I as an EE engineer who has designed net zero buildings and the most efficient electrical designs possible has concerns as to why I am doing it, if it is to misplace known dependable energy supplies. When you go to a hospital it has to have two primary feeds that should be 99.98% dependable regardless of backup generation. These are standards that were set in place per NFPA years ago. Whether we are dealing with micro-grids or just thinking offset for efficiency, do you want to be the patient that is dependent on when the sun is shining.



I really don't know why I should bother, but there is no way you are an engineer currently working on grid power systems. There are a myriad of federal and state agencies that regulate hospitals. Some of them have requirements for constant power, but not one has a requirement for two primary feeds that are supposed to be 99.98% dependable. No utility in their right mind would ever agree to that kind of dependability figure. Very few hospitals have more than one feed, and the ones that do have it is because it's at or near the intersection of two control points, not because it's required. The NFPA is not a regulatory agency. It's an association that proposes codes related to electrical installations and fire fighting. An agency does not have to adopt the NFPA codes, although most do, at least in part. It does not address things like primary power feeds. One of the reasons why hospitals are required to have backup generators is there's no grid power system that won't suffer an outage. No utility company provides a power feed to anywhere that comes from a micro grid up the street. The power comes from all sources, and those change in the course of a day. Even writing something like that tells me you aren't what you say you are.

I don't know if you did a copy and paste from somewhere or dreamed up this word salad on your own, but you're going to have to come up with something more convincing for me to take you seriously.
Thank you for calling me out. The 99.8% requirement is for fire pumps which is typically a letter from the service provider if they can meet it (If not a generator is required) and hospitals should have 99.9999% reliability for the system as a whole. I dont know what hospitals you have worked on that got a pass for not having two primary circuits from two different substations but maybe the state gave them a pass. I have not seen ever where they did but it is possible and I have been doing this for 25 years. To say NFPA is a recommendation is a joke. All authorities having jurisdiction will require that they meet NFPA 70,70E, and NFPA 99. I was simply trying to state that although well intentioned alternative power sources are not very reliable. I am a professional engineer that has always believed in alternate power sources if applicable should be used. I dont think that going after power providers or any other big industry as evil is a good idea since they are highly regulated by state boards who dictate what they can charge. The board will always allow power companys to make a profit or we would have many power providers which is not feasible. My experience is that when you do have areas or an entity that goes with alternative energy then when you need it from the grid it is very expensive, and it should be since the distribution system has to maintained and they are no longer getting the revenue from the power. I have dealt with the Southern Company, PGE, SCE with all the requests as I have stated. I do a lot of design for the federal government that falls under EISA, EPACT , ASHRAE 90.1 (2010) and title 24. If you can tell me how to make this work I am all ears.