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Climate Change Won’t Stop in 2016, Despite Misleading Reports

By: Bob Henson and Jeff Masters 2:52 PM GMT on December 06, 2016

With just three years left to go, it’s virtually certain that the 2010s will be warmer than any decade on record, barring a massive volcanic eruption. As greenhouse gases produced by human activity continue to build up in the atmosphere, it’s also a very good bet--again barring a volcanic or geopolitical cataclysm--that the 2020s will be warmer than the 2010s. You wouldn’t know about these perfectly reasonable, science-based inferences if all you had to go by was this article published by Breitbart.com on November 30: “Global Temperatures Plunge. Icy Silence from Climate Alarmists.” The article includes this statement: “The last three years may eventually come to be seen as the final death rattle of the global warming scare.”

Along with its presence on the high-profile Breitbart site, this article drew even more attention after a link to it was retweeted by the U.S. House Committee on Science, Space, and Technology. Fortunately, the article has been effectively rebutted by several excellent bloggers (see links below). Though we’d prefer to focus on our usual coverage of weather and climate science, in this case we felt it was important to add our two cents—especially because a video clip from weather.com (“La Niña in Pacific Affects Weather in New England”) was prominently featured at the top of the Breitbart article. Breitbart had the legal right to use this clip as part of a content-sharing agreement, but there should be no assumption that The Weather Company endorses the article associated with it.

A plump cherry, carefully picked
The Breitbart article is a prime example of cherry picking: pulling a single item out of context in order to build a misleading case. The article draws heavily on a (U.K.) Daily Mail article from November 26 by David Rose titled “Stunning new data indicates El Niño drove record highs in global temperatures suggesting rise may not be down to man-made emissions.” (In the U.K., the phrase “down to” is a synonym for “attributable to”.) The plucked cherry, in this case, is the fact that satellite-based estimates of temperature in the lower several kilometers of the atmosphere over Earth’s land areas have decreased from early 2016 to late 2016 (a graphic in the Daily Mail attributed only to “NASA satellites” shows this drop as being more than 1.0°C). The article implies that global temperatures may soon return to levels seen in the late 1990s.

Here are a few points crucial for putting this isolated factoid into proper context:

--On time scales of a few months, temperatures rise and fall more quickly over land than over the ocean (as acknowledged by Rose). The ocean takes up about 70% of Earth’s surface, so land-only temperatures are an incomplete measure of global climate change. The land-plus-ocean data for the lower atmosphere published by Dr. Roy Spencer (University of Alabama in Huntsville, UAH) shows a cooling of about 0.5°C earlier this year, or only about half of the 1.0°C claimed for the land-only dataset. Despite this, the year 2016 is on pace to be the warmest year on record in the UAH lower atmosphere dataset.

--Satellite-based temperature estimates for the lower atmosphere are not the same as temperature trends measured at Earth’s surface, where people live. Satellite-derived estimates of the lower atmosphere air temperatures are much more sensitive to El Niño, the large-scale natural warming that occurs in Eastern Pacific waters every 2 - 7 years. When a strong El Niño event ends, as occurred earlier this year, we expect to see a substantial drop in satellite-based temperature estimates for the lower atmosphere—and just a slight drop in temperatures measured by weather stations on Earth’s surface, as was observed.

--Three different groups publish satellite-based temperature estimates for the lower atmosphere: UAH, RSS, and NOAA’s STAR. The Breitbart and Daily News articles picked the one with the largest drop, from RSS. The other two data sets show no similar dramatic drop, just the sort of normal decline one would expect to see after the end of a strong El Niño event. Recently, RSS found an error in their lower tropospheric temperature estimates which has yet to be corrected. They state on their website that the data suffers problems “with the adjustment for drifting measurement times” and “should be used with caution”. Ironically, the RSS data for the month of November, which was released on Friday after the Breitbart and Daily News articles were published, shows a substantial uptick in satellite-based temperature estimates for the lower atmosphere over land. Notably, the combined land plus ocean numbers from both RSS and UAH for November showed Earth’s warmest November on record!


Figure 1. Global surface temperature (including both ocean and land areas) for the 12-month-long November-to-October periods from 1880 to present. Image credit: NOAA/NCEI.

A pointless argument: Was it El Niño or climate change that led to the record warmth in 2015-16?
Much of the Breitbart and Daily News articles focused on the idea that the two-year El Niño event that ended this year may have been entirely responsible for the record-warm global readings of 2015 and 2016. It is well established that El Niño and La Niña produce spikes and dips in global temperature, typically lasting a year or two, atop the long-term trend of warming from increasing human-produced greenhouse gases. It’s apparent from Figure 2 below (featured at the indispensable website skepticalscience.com) that the spikes and dips from typical El Niño and La Niña events average about 0.1°C each, and roughly 0.2°C to 0.3°C for the very biggest events. In comparison, global surface temperatures have risen more than 0.6°C since the mid-20th century, and close to 1.0°C over the last 100 years. Thus, the bulk of the unusual warmth of a year like 2016, compared to readings a century ago, is the result of long-term warming. Put another way, the spikes that set record global highs are typically related to El Niño, but these spikes couldn’t set global highs without resting atop the rock-solid foundation of long-term warming. Otherwise, we’d see strong La Niña events setting global record lows--and this clearly isn’t happening. If we remove the El Niño spike, 2016 (to date) is still the hottest year on record and 2015 is the second hottest year on record (see the excellent analysis on this by Zeke Hausfather, a climate scientist and energy systems analyst at Berkeley Earth.)

Assuming that 2016 sets a new global surface temperature record (a virtual certainty), it will actually be the third record-warm year in a row. The most recent El Niño event did not begin until the last quarter of 2014, so most of the record warmth of that year cannot be attributed to El Niño at all. It’s also important not to confuse the multi-decadal ups and downs evident in Figure 1 with the longer-term warming trend caused by greenhouse gases. During periods when El Niño events are more common than La Nina events, more heat is being sent from ocean to atmosphere and global temperatures can rise dramatically, as was the case during most of the 1980s and 1990s. Similarly, when La Niña is more common than El Niño, more heat is being stored in the oceans and the global atmosphere may warm a bit more slowly, as was the case from about 1998 to 2013. (See our 2015 post on the Pacific Decadal Oscillation for more background.) These shifts play out atop the human-produced warming trend, which is forced by greenhouse gases accumulating in our atmosphere at greater and greater concentrations every year.


Figure 2. Global surface temperature trends for the period 1966 - 2015 analyzed for El Niño years (red boxes), La Niña years (blue boxes), and neutral years (black boxes), along with volcanic years (gold triangles). The three trend lines show that global temperature has been rising at a fairly consistent rate of about 0.15 - 0.17°C (0.27 - 0.31°F) per decade once La Niña and El Niño departures are factored out. Image credit: skepticalscience.com; data from Berkeley Earth.

Artificial debates interfere with the discussions we really need to have
There remains a spectrum of confidence on how climate change will affect various types of extreme weather. The research is more mature in some areas than in others, as explained in a major 2016 report from the National Academies. Scientific debate in this area is real and perfectly legitimate. Likewise, how we respond to climate change is a matter of public policy, one that demands healthy debate and engagement from citizens and political leaders. It’s something else entirely to foster suspicion about the very bedrock of climate change science, which is based on thousands of peer-reviewed studies and accepted by every major scientific organization on Earth. Human-produced greenhouse gases are causing the Earth system to warm, and this trend will continue, along with shorter-term ups and downs. There are too many important debates and decisions ahead of us to waste time on artificial ones.

Bob Henson and Jeff Masters
Note: Our views are our own and not necessarily representative of The Weather Company or IBM.

Links
You can see line-by-line critiques of the Daily Mail article from climate scientists at the Climate Feedback website.

“We’ve Been Waiting for this Whopper, and It Has Arrived!”
Dan Satterfield, AGU Blogosphere

“How Stupid Does David Rose Think You Are?”
Tamino, Open Mind blog

”U.S. House Science Committee tweets Breitbart climate misinformation”
Scott Johnson, Ars Technica

“Earth’s temperature has not plunged at record clip and nationwide record cold not coming”
Capital Weather Gang (Jason Samenow)

Climate Change Politics Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Climate change brings dry weather to N Leewards. Why not the opposite...
Well the cold spells coming to the USA won't help the argument, they'll all say "what warming" when it's 0F in Bismark ND, in December.....
Thank you Gentleman for the update and your comments are very timely. With the current news issues going on as to "fake news stories" that are often generated by the Internet, if you only get your news, which often shapes your views, from internet sources, you are often getting wrong or misleading information. In the case of AGW, we are fortunate to have NASA, Noaa, and tons of research, and papers, from top notch scientists and scholars from Universities around the world, sounding the alarm, and warning people and policymakers, as to the pending impacts from AGW and suggesting that we take some action to help mitigate some of the effects on humans. It's not just an issue related to long-term warming (and related sea level rise due to polar melt issues) but also as to immediate impacts such as drought issues (and the decades of ongoing research and college degrees) where people are figuring out how to splice drought resistant crop strains, find and exploit renewable energies, and infrastructure and habitat/migration change issues (both in terms of the animal kingdom and loss of habitat and human AGW related migrations).

The bottom line is that folks trying to learn about the science, and impacts, of AGW need to go the legitimate sources for their information as opposed to random cherry-picked internet news or comments. If you have a computer or internet service through a device, please take some time to actually go through the extensive Noaa and Nasa databases for your information or read some of the excellent first-source papers (listen to the scientists and scholars on this one)..........................................
With two hours at a >1 inch/hr rain rate, plus a few more downpours, the lettuce is in shambles. Plain rain shouldn't have caused this much damage.





I was planning on eating that lettuce for months. Don't know if it's going to come back or not.
Quoting 2. MahFL:

Well the cold spells coming to the USA won't help the argument, they'll all say "what warming" when it's 0F in Bismark ND, in December.....


Indeed, it'll be interesting to see how the U.S. cold blast of the next few days gets covered! We'll have more on this event in a coming post.
The Human induced Global Warming from Fossil Fuel usage,worldwide,..continues,

...unabated.


#3. Exactly. Imo, Living with the internet where everyone can easily publish their ideas and have them take on a life of their own, it becomes even more necessary in a democratic society to validate sources of information. Its not thaaat hard!! Just clicking through to any cited sources and actually reading it to make sure it lines up with the premise will get you 90% of the way "there". If you are literate... ACT LIKE IT!

#5. Lettuce all have a moment of silence. (sry, couldn't help myself)
Global Warming May Send More Hurricanes to Northeast U.S.

New research says storm tracks are shifting northward, making devastating catastrophes like Sandy and Irene even more common.

Link
Quoting 6. BobHenson:



Indeed, it'll be interesting to see how the U.S. cold blast of the next few days gets covered! We'll have more on this event in a coming post.

It will be covered as if it happened to the whole world instead of a measly percent of the globe. Seen that already.
I couldn't find a Hydra Xmas Blow Up one, so I went with the Xmas Dragon instead.

I'm going with "Puff".

Merry Christmas from us to you.





Quoting 6. BobHenson:



Indeed, it'll be interesting to see how the U.S. cold blast of the next few days gets covered! We'll have more on this event in a coming post.


Thanks for the timely update. Clever move, this Breitbart article (Orwell would be proud...) - again, one of my favorite quotes :
"Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the "body of fact" that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy."
So next month, as the news spread that 2016 was in fact the new hottest year ever in the modern record (the third in a row, after 2014 and 2015), uneducated people will remain in doubt ("Wait, who should I trust ? Breitbart or the NYT ?"). And next year, if 2017 ends up with global average temps slightly lower than 2016's, I think I already know what kind of articles Breitbart et al. will be putting online...

John Oliver: "Do Owls Exist?"
(warning : this video contains strong language)
And here is a related blurb actual from the Science (an actual science based) website;

  http://www.sciencemag.org/news/sifter/just-where-d id-breitbart-get-its-climate-data

Yesterday, the official Twitter account of the U.S. House of Representatives Committee on Science, Space, and Technology retweeted an interesting article to its 179,000 followers: “Global Temperatures Plunge. Icy Silence from Climate Alarmists.” The only problem is that global temperatures aren’t exactly plunging, according to an analysis of the underlying data by The Washington Post. The story, in Breitbart News, cribbed from an earlier Daily Mailstory that reported Earth’s land temperatures had fallen at a record pace in 2016, and that human-caused climate change did not contribute to record-high temperatures from 2014–16. But both stories are based on incomplete data and flawed arguments, the Post reports. The relevant temperature records date back only to 1979, and they apply only to landmasses, not the world’s oceans. Add those in, and global temperatures did not drop. What’s more, the drop in land temperatures was expected, as the warm phase of the most recent El Niño weather event shifts to its colder twin, La Niña.
 
The GOP, deceiving Americans since 1980,.....


That aint news, its a Mantra decree.
One wonders just when David Rose's emails get hacked. That's the wiki I'd like to see leaked.
Will finally note that I just stepped outside for a breath of fresh air; not a scientist but it is currently 75 degrees and balmy in Downtown Tallahassee.................Makes me want to leave work for that nice trip to the Beach in December......
and finally..

It is over.

: P
Quoting 17. weathermanwannabe:

Will finally note that I just stepped outside for a breath of fresh air; not a scientist but it is currently 75 degrees and balmy in Downtown Tallahassee.................Makes me want to leave work for that nice trip to the Beach in December......


83 degrees with a heat index of 90 degrees here in S.W. Florida.
Quoting 9. RobertWC:

Global Warming May Send More Hurricanes to Northeast U.S.

New research says storm tracks are shifting northward, making devastating catastrophes like Sandy and Irene even more common.

Link


"How many storms will form and whether they maintain strength near the Northeast coast is a different question, he said, because one of his recent studies suggests that cooling of the North Atlantic from melting Arctic ice could reduce the frequency of storms in that region.

Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said the researchers may have underestimated the influence of the El Niño-La Niña cycle, which can shift tropical storm activity. He said the research is inconclusive when it comes to storm tracks."

I could suggest them a more neutral title.

Global Warming May Send More Or Less Hurricanes to Northeast U.S.

But I guess it is more acceptable to portray doom.
Weather Blog: Fort Myers breaks 74-year-old weather record
Posted: Dec 05, 2016 7:33 PM EST
Updated: Dec 05, 2016 7:34 PM EST
By Rob Duns, MeteorologistCONNECT





Fort Myers set a new record-high temperature Monday hitting 87° at Page Field Airport. The temperature reading breaks the previous record high of 86° for December 5th that had held since 1942.

Monday's temperature makes for the second consecutive day a record high reading has been tied or broken in Fort Myers. On Sunday, the city warmed to 87° tying the record high for December 4th set in 1994.

Our duo of record highs comes after what's been an arid start to dry season in Southwest Florida.

Since October 1st, Fort Myers has only picked up 2.73 inches of rain; with all of it falling in the first 12 days of the month. When analyzing daily rain totals, Southwest Florida hasn't picked up more than an inch of rainfall at any one time in a whopping 63 days.
Thanks to you both...Medium range has a more brutally cold air mass coming after this one...Not surprising with this pattern.
Quoting 19. RichardBLong:




I guess you're telling us all about yourself, too!
.
Quoting 21. elioe:



"How many storms will form and whether they maintain strength near the Northeast coast is a different question, he said, because one of his recent studies suggests that cooling of the North Atlantic from melting Arctic ice could reduce the frequency of storms in that region.

Kevin Trenberth, head of the Climate Analysis Section at the National Center for Atmospheric Research, said the researchers may have underestimated the influence of the El Niño-La Niña cycle, which can shift tropical storm activity. He said the research is inconclusive when it comes to storm tracks."

I could suggest them a more neutral title.

Global Warming May Send More Or Less Hurricanes to Northeast U.S.

But I guess it is more acceptable to portray doom.

Much better to let doom strike the totally unprepared, of course.
Quoting 2. MahFL:

Well the cold spells coming to the USA won't help the argument, they'll all say "what warming" when it's 0F in Bismark ND, in December.....
People who are ignorant of climate--either willfully or not--may very well say that. Of course, that's every bit as scientifically valid an opinion as looking out one's window at 2:00 AM, seeing it's dark outside, and announcing that the sun has been destroyed. But, yes, some will doubtless have trouble grasping such a subtlety...
28. bwi
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1043 AM EST Tue Dec 6 2016

.UPDATE...
Latest IR satellite imagery shows linear convection building along
a cold front draped from north-central Florida southwestward into
the Gulf of Mexico. This activity shows an eastward drift, poised
to affect our region by late this afternoon. Out ahead of this
front, conditions remain rather warm and muggy for this time of
year. The 12Z MFL sounding showed a relatively moist layer from
the surface to around 500 mb, with dry air aloft. The PWAT had
climbed to 1.88 inches, with CAPE values slightly over 1,000 J/KG.
Short range models, such as the hiRes WRF and HRRR show the
aforementioned band of convection nearing northwest portions of
the CWA by later this afternoon. More isolated activity could
develop ahead of the front elsewhere. Have updated PoPs to reflect
this thinking and tighten the gradient between northwest and
southeast portions of the CWA.

Quoting 19. RichardBLong:

Listen carefully when you hear someone speaking about others......they are telling you about themselves.

When one says; "cherry picking: pulling a single item out of context in order to build a misleading case." they are telling us exactly what you do very well.

When one says; "it'll be interesting to see how the U.S. cold blast of the next few days gets covered." (insinuating that it will be blown out of proportion), this is exactly how they cover the opposite, US warm spells.

Like not much coverage of the November 'warm' spell (it was rather outrageous really - there was actual proportion to that one. Though nothing like December last year, of course).
And while we in Europe are likely facing another warm (not 'mild', read that) winter we'll be blasted by the US news that it is ordinary bloody winter there as if happened for the first time there.

I listened carefully, mate. Once and once only.
Quoting 19. RichardBLong:

When one says; "it'll be interesting to see how the U.S. cold blast of the next few days gets covered." (insinuating that it will be blown out of proportion), this is exactly how they cover the opposite, US warm spells.
No. If the warms spells and cold spells were equal in terms of magnitude and frequency, you might have a case. But thermometers show that warm spells are outnumbering cold spells by a very large factor, so your comment has no validity. (Oddly enough, the fact that warms spells now occur much more frequently than they have in the past means that cold snaps are a relative rarity--which is likely why the coming one will make such news.)
Logic, and In a science blog,..

Gee, why who'd a thunk it?

Quoting 19. RichardBLong:

Listen carefully when you hear someone speaking about others......they are telling you about themselves.

When one says; "cherry picking: pulling a single item out of context in order to build a misleading case." they are telling us exactly what you do very well.

When one says; "it'll be interesting to see how the U.S. cold blast of the next few days gets covered." (insinuating that it will be blown out of proportion), this is exactly how they cover the opposite, US warm spells.

Ah, yes. The old rubber-glue defense. I didn't know that was still being done outside of school playgrounds.

See? You did tell me something about yourself!

Oh, and btw, cherry-picking has an actual definition. I'll leave the fair-minded reader to decide for herself if and where this definition applies in the above discussion.
Quoting 27. Neapolitan:

People who are ignorant of climate--either willfully or not--may very well say that. Of course, that's every bit as scientifically valid an opinion as looking out one's window at 2:00 AM, seeing it's dark outside, and announcing that the sun has been destroyed. But, yes, some will doubtless have trouble grasping such a subtlety...
Or like saying "I think or said its right, so it just is "..
Quoting 12. Patrap:





I think we're nearing the time when qualified people deliberately engaged in deception should be prosecuted for fraud, and perhaps sued civilly. Things are beginning to be serious.
37. bwi
Looks like we're back at record low Arctic sea ice volume in December.
Quoting Bob Henson and Jeff Masters:

The land-plus-ocean data for the lower atmosphere published by Dr. Roy Spencer (University of Alabama in Huntsville, UAH) shows a cooling of about 0.5°C earlier this year, or only about half of the 1.0°C claimed for the land-only dataset. Despite this, the year 2016 is on pace to be the warmest year on record in the UAH lower atmosphere dataset.
A funny thing about Spencer's UAH dataset: while he (and Christy, and other denialists) will use their graph to "hide the incline" in temperatures, it's interesting that even those data show the unmistakable upwards trend in temperatures:

CLICK FOR THE LARGER, INTERACTIVE CHART:


Note that if the noisy blue line is removed, the indicators are even more unmistakable.
Let's see it snow down here. It'll be a sure sign of agw.
Quoting 34. JohnLonergan:

BOM declares ENSO neutral




That just reminds me of this. I know it's different, but...
Quoting 39. PensacolaDoug:

Let's see it snow down here. It'll be a sure sign of agw.

Well, if one defines "AGW" as "winter." I'm not sure why anyone would.
2 posts in 11 years now almost?

Pass the ketchup will yas, please?


43. bwi
Arctic sea ice extent has been in record low territory on and off all year, but particularly this fall. I remember watching a Jennifer Francis video a couple years back where she was discussing whether lower ice extent would impact the weather. Her response was "How could it not?"

Quoting 2. MahFL:

Well the cold spells coming to the USA won't help the argument, they'll all say "what warming" when it's 0F in Bismark ND, in December.....

That would be a silly argument indeed considering Bismarck has an average low temperature of 5 degrees in December and their record low is -28 on this date.
TCFA (Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert) issued by the JTWC (link) at 1600z concerning 99W/BOB06 (Bay of Bengal) : (...) THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 071600Z.
47. bwi
We had a particularly scary incident in DC this last week. Apparently some fake new outlets pushed a completely fabricated story prior to the election that a local pizza joint whose owner had once held a fundraiser for Clinton was actually a cover for an international child abuse ring. The restaurant's staff and even nearby stores' employees were threatened, and eventually some idiot drives up to DC to "investigate" with his rifle and starts firing shots!

Now the conspiracy sites are doubling down, saying this was all government-sponsored actor playing an idiot with a rifle to discredit the fake news sites!

People who really want to believe falsehoods are going to believe them regardless of obvious facts. Same with politics as with climate/weather.

Alleged gunman tells police he wanted to rescue children at D.C. pizza shop after hearing fictional Internet accounts

'We’re going to put a bullet in your head’: #PizzaGate threats terrorize D.C. shop owners

‘False flag’ planted at a pizza place? It’s just one more conspiracy to digest.
Climate change won't stop, and I hope well-informed people won't stop pointing out either the intentional or unintentional obfuscations. We're running out of time to mitigate the negative effects of climate change.

Not that these people and institutions care, but history will view them in a very harsh light. The amount of future human suffering accumulates with each contrived roadblock.
Quoting 36. Misanthroptimist:


I think we're nearing the time when qualified people deliberately engaged in deception should be prosecuted for fraud, and perhaps sued civilly. Things are beginning to be serious.

We are.
After that, capital punishment for whoever chops a tree.
Quoting 23. hydrus:

Thanks to you both...Medium range has a more brutally cold air mass coming after this one...Not surprising with this pattern.


Typically (not always but in many years) we see a really cold snap the first or second week in January. That's frequently when we see our coldest night of the year here in S.W. Florida.
Quoting 45. LargoFl:




That turned out to be pretty much of a disappointment for me. Rained for about 10 minutes. I didn't water this morning so I guess I'll do it tonight.
Quoting 5. aquak9:

With two hours at a >1 inch/hr rain rate, plus a few more downpours, the lettuce is in shambles. Plain rain shouldn't have caused this much damage.





I was planning on eating that lettuce for months. Don't know if it's going to come back or not.


Plant parsnips. They are hardier.
Quoting 53. Grothar:


Plant parsnips. They are hardier.
I'd rather eat dirt.
Quoting 19. RichardBLong:

Listen carefully when you hear someone speaking about others......they are telling you about themselves.

When one says; "cherry picking: pulling a single item out of context in order to build a misleading case." they are telling us exactly what you do very well.

When one says; "it'll be interesting to see how the U.S. cold blast of the next few days gets covered." (insinuating that it will be blown out of proportion), this is exactly how they cover the opposite, US warm spells.


Sigh.

Facts get so lonely with statements like this.

Please be nice to facts, and they'll be nice to you.

Record highs vs record lows through 2015

When the data for 2016 is complete, it will be even more dramatic.
Quoting 50. cRRKampen:


We are.
After that, capital punishment for whoever chops a tree.


Sounds like Mr. Apples to me indeed.


Head of the table at the Rotary club
Never unsure of which shoulders he should rub
Scout leader, a pillar of the Church, Capital Punishment
He wants to bring back the birch (of course, he does)






Quoting 36. Misanthroptimist:

I think we're nearing the time when qualified people deliberately engaged in deception should be prosecuted for fraud, and perhaps sued civilly. Things are beginning to be serious.

Wait, isn't this already happening (sort of) ?

Class-Action Lawsuit Adds to ExxonMobil's Climate Change Woes
Inside Climate News - Nov 21.

Related (good) news :
Exxon Won't Sponsor AGU, a Win of Sorts for Oil Giant's Opponents
Inside Climate News - Dec 5.
Quoting 9. RobertWC:

Global Warming May Send More Hurricanes to Northeast U.S.

New research says storm tracks are shifting northward, making devastating catastrophes like Sandy and Irene even more common.

Link

Figure 4: Generalised TC track migration patterns during the pre- and post-1870 intervals.



Mean track of Cape Verde TCs (long black arrow) and the positions of the ITCZ (blue band) and the Bermuda High (red ‘H’) during (a) pre-Industrial LIA cooling, (b) pre-Industrial (post-LIA) warming, and (c) post-1870 GHG warming. Sites discussed in Fig. 3 are marked by circles (Yok Balum Cave (YB), Jamaica (JM), Puerto Rico (PR), Florida (FL), and Bermuda (BM)). Colour contours in (c) represent the likelihood a TC will occur during the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1–November 30) for the period 1944 to 1999 (adapted from ref. 60). The location and size of the red ‘H’s in a-c approximate BH position and strength, respectively. The position of the BH in (c) is based on 20th Century Reanalysis V2 wind vector data61. ITCZ latitudinal position and shape is approximated from previous work37,62. The base map was derived from the ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model63. The size of the light grey arrows in a-c represents the relative importance of western Caribbean cyclogenesis during each interval schematically.

Source: Scientific Reports6, Article number: 37522 (2016) doi:10.1038/srep37522
Quoting 13. 999Ai2016:

Thanks for the timely update. Clever move, this Breitbart article (Orwell would be proud...) - again, one of my favorite quotes :
"Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the "body of fact" that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy."
So next month, as the news spread that 2016 was in fact the new hottest year ever in the modern record (the third in a row, after 2014 and 2015), uneducated people will remain in doubt ("Wait, who should I trust ? Breitbart or the NYT ?"). And next year, if 2017 ends up with global average temps slightly lower than 2016's, I think I already know what kind of articles Breitbart et al. will be putting online...

John Oliver: "Do Owls Exist?"
(warning : this video contains strong language)



Unfortunately, we will soon be living in a fact-free environment where white is black and up and down and climate change will be global cooling.
Quoting 59. VAstorms:



Unfortunately, we will soon be living in a fact-free environment where white is black and up and down and climate change will be global cooling.

And where those who suggest otherwise will be jailed.
Agree every bit of it!
I have lived in Mumbai, India for past 29 years and have observed the weather there. The raindrops are much heavier than they used to be. Rain falls in much more intense spells than they did before. In July, we see about 27 days of rain but now it has gone down to about 20 and still the average is reached. The monsoon's withdrawal also seems to have extended from the long term average of 29 Sept to around the 10th Oct. Post-monsoon there is a transition month that lasted whole of October with hot weather known locally as October Heat. Now, that has moved to the month of November. The city has to wait till mid-December for the winter feel which usually set in by the start of the month. I may not have the data to conclusively prove these points but its just raw observation since childhood that tell me that something is not right up there. No David Rose or any other climate change denier can change that!
The recount in Wisconsin is on going and so far with one million counted, Trump has 20 fewer votes. And get this - wait for it.... clinton has 20 fewer votes. How much is this costing our tax payers?
I love the headline in post #9.
"may"
Quoting 26. cRRKampen:


Much better to let doom strike the totally unprepared, of course.


Oh, serving a neutral and factual assessment about consensus in this issue, must, of course, lead to people being unprepared to future "Sandys" and "Irenes".

The majority of laypeople will acknowledge the "doom" only when the actual future weather event is ongoing. At that point, it doesn't matter to them, whether the recurrence interval for such hurricane is 20 or 200 years. Emergency management has to be prepared anyway, since there is nothing to suggest, that hurricanes hitting NE USA would become impossible in future climate. Local infrastructure planners would benefit from a consensus about recurrence intervals, but a few skewed headlines do not constitute such.

Now it's time for me to watch national elite celebrating Independence Day at the reception in Presidential Palace. Well, because, there are nice and beautiful things in life.
Quoting 56. Patrap:



Sounds like Mr. Apples to me indeed.


Head of the table at the Rotary club
Never unsure of which shoulders he should rub
Scout leader, a pillar of the Church, Capital Punishment
He wants to bring back the birch (of course, he does)






Crikey, it does... Missed this... But I did Madness back in 1981 or so. Today I seek being blown away, or jumping a marathon with very straight techno.

Said capital punishment was my vision when I chopped a tree in my ma's garden for her, absolutely loathed it, swore I will never do that again, et cetera. I think sometime during apocalyptic future some countries or cults will actually have it implemented. Death penalty for chopping a tree. I am very much against violence in general and the death sentence in particular, but this idea has me doubting every time I think of it.
Quoting 62. luvtogolf:

The recount in Wisconsin is on going and so far with one million counted, Trump has 20 fewer votes. And get this - wait for it.... clinton has 20 fewer votes. How much is this costing our tax payers?


Why don't you go look for yourself. For instance, you probably don't know that the Republican governor and legislature jacked the price up of a hand count by several times.

In Wisconsin, where the GOP state legislature recently changed the law to jack up the fees for "recounts" and to allow such tallies to be done by computers instead of by hand, a state judge, citing that new statute, denied a suit by Stein (and joined by the Hillary Clinton campaign) seeking statewide hand-counts, despite the judge's own belief they should be carried out that way. The Green Party candidate, however, vows to press on, despite the cost of the counts --- partial, hand-counted or machine-counted --- now rising to some $9.5 million. That, apparently, is now the obscene price that citizens have to pay to even have a fighting chance of knowing who actually won or lost a Presidential Election in just three states.
http://www.bradblog.com/

So if it's publicly funded you know who to contact.
Quoting 62. luvtogolf:

The recount in Wisconsin is on going and so far with one million counted, Trump has 20 fewer votes. And get this - wait for it.... clinton has 20 fewer votes. How much is this costing our tax payers?

Oh, far more than another war somewhere. Wouldn't it?
Abolish the courts of law and the supreme court et cetera, because tax payers!
Quoting 63. luvtogolf:

I love the headline in post #9.
"may"


Don't worry, in due time science deniers will almost certainly (get it, almost?) say a prediction was made, it was wrong, so therefore AGW is a hoax.
Quoting 65. cRRKampen:


Crikey, it does... Missed this... But I did Madness back in 1981 or so. Today I seek being blown away, or jumping a marathon with very straight techno.

Said capital punishment was my vision when I chopped a tree in my ma's garden for her, absolutely loathed it, swore I will never do that again, et cetera. I think sometime during apocalyptic future some countries or cults will actually have it implemented. Death penalty for chopping a tree. I am very much against violence in general and the death sentence in particular, but this idea has me doubting every time I think of it.


My Sons Band plays at the New Orleans French Quarter, House of Blues, Voodoo Gardens every Tuesday night from 6-9. SO last week Im at the Bar with my Buds in chilling, and a friend shoots this "Madness" Jools Hollands gig in msg, and I nearly I fell out, as we all remember "Our House" from 82'.

Love the Mr. Apples tune, esp the lyrics indeed.

Inside the Voodoo Gardens restaurant.

In event setting.



Yup..they may play it tonight as they been rehearsing it all week.


Reminds me of here.

"...Our Blog, in the middle of the net."






Quoting 63. luvtogolf:

I love the headline in post #9.
"may"


I love how you lack any science to back up your "views" on science.
wrt the quoted comment above.... Im sure the concept of probability is way beyond your capacity, so Im not surprised you think you have made a point.
Quoting 64. elioe:



Oh, serving a neutral and factual assessment about consensus in this issue, must, of course, lead to people being unprepared to future "Sandys" and "Irenes".

As is actually the case.

Like has been quoted here before: "Doubt is our product since it is the best means of competing with the "body of fact" that exists in the mind of the general public. It is also the means of establishing a controversy."

Your suggested title feeds exactly that.
I wouldn't have any illusions re climate change and hurricanes for that hopelessly sinking east coast. Ask real estate insurers, they'll make the same thing quite clear.

"The majority of laypeople will acknowledge the "doom" only when the actual future weather event is ongoing. " said you, truthfully. What it means at this stage is that all those people actively invite doom, which is guaranteed. They want it.
Quoting 61. Vebz25:

Agree every bit of it!
I have lived in Mumbai, India for past 29 years and have observed the weather there. The raindrops are much heavier than they used to be. Rain falls in much more intense spells than they did before. In July, we see about 27 days of rain but now it has gone down to about 20 and still the average is reached. The monsoon's withdrawal also seems to have extended from the long term average of 29 Sept to around the 10th Oct. Post-monsoon there is a transition month that lasted whole of October with hot weather known locally as October Heat. Now, that has moved to the month of November. The city has to wait till mid-December for the winter feel which usually set in by the start of the month. I may not have the data to conclusively prove these points but its just raw observation since childhood that tell me that something is not right up there. No David Rose or any other climate change denier can change that!


Welcome to the threads here.

Please feel free to blog here about your obs and Life there as we welcome all here.

@ 19. RichardBLong

I'm sorry, but my eyes roll so hard at your choice of handle, it's hard to see the words you write.
Quoting 63. luvtogolf:

I love the headline in post #9.
"may"



Quoting 41. Misanthroptimist:


Well, if one defines "AGW" as "winter." I'm not sure why anyone would.
Every event gets blamed on agw. Why should a Deep South snowstorm be any different?


Make sure I get a really snarky reply so that all you folks can plus it!
All weather, takes place in this warmer Biosphere.

It ain't Political Science by any means.

But do try the Phish...





SC IL forecast now only showing 20 for Fri/Sat lows, still cold, but much better than 14/16 in earlier forecast, hope the trend holds. Currently 38 and overcast, missing precip so far. 29.86" w/ 10-20 NW winds.

Pat, sent you a WUmail.
Quoting 75. PensacolaDoug:

Every event gets blamed on agw. Why should a Deep South snowstorm be any different?


Make sure I get a really snarky reply so that all you folks can plus it!


Try expressing a view based in science and people here will plus it.
Or conversely slapping down a view based in "data? whatever... lets just make stuff up and believe it"
Snark is just a little fun extra credit....
Quoting 62. luvtogolf:

The recount in Wisconsin is on going and so far with one million counted, Trump has 20 fewer votes. And get this - wait for it.... clinton has 20 fewer votes. How much is this costing our tax payers?


Zero dollars. Why?

https://www.palmerreport.com/news/wisconsin-recou nt-waukesha-county-officials-caught-illegally-hidi ng-ballots-from-observers/387/

Don't you want to know the truth? Trump is claiming 3 million fraudulent votes were cast, don't you want to know the truth?
Hey Cleveland Browns fans you have hope- you "may" win the Super Bowl next year!
The purveyors of Breitbart "news" should be gutted in the public square.
Quoting 62. luvtogolf:

The recount in Wisconsin is on going and so far with one million counted, Trump has 20 fewer votes. And get this - wait for it.... clinton has 20 fewer votes. How much is this costing our tax payers?


Massive Republican election fraud has been exposed in Wisconsin:

https://www.palmerreport.com/news/rigged-election -two-wisconsin-voting-blocks-ballots-cast-register ed-voters/295/
Quoting 80. luvtogolf:

Hey Cleveland Browns fans you have hope- you "may" win the Super Bowl next year!


Nice! Now don't forget to show your work!
They did.
Quoting 62. luvtogolf:

The recount in Wisconsin is on going and so far with one million counted, Trump has 20 fewer votes. And get this - wait for it.... clinton has 20 fewer votes. How much is this costing our tax payers?


Actually that's not true. Trump has over 5000 fewer votes. Inexplicably over-counted in Republican controlled electronic voter machine districts.
Quoting 44. pipelines:


That would be a silly argument indeed


when has that ever stopped people before?
Unfortunately with the myriad fake news reports Dr. Masters and others have to waste valuable time rebutting things that are really already settled science. Same thing all across the board in right wing politics. The Breitbart and Fox tactic seems to be to keep everyone in the main stream media and science communities occupied rebutting things that don't really merit further discussion... and simultaneously brainwash their readers to not believe the rebuttals. The scary thing is that it is working, even to elect a dangerous know-nothing like Trump.
Believe everything the liberal media tells you. That's strike one, two and three .
Quoting 86. raylo:

Unfortunately with the myriad fake news reports Dr. Masters and others have to waste valuable time rebutting things that are really already settled science. Same thing all across the board in right wing politics. The Breitbart and Fox tactic seems to be to keep everyone in the main stream media and science communities occupied rebutting things that don't really merit further discussion... and simultaneously brainwash their readers to not believe the rebuttals. The scary thing is that it is working, even to elect a dangerous know-nothing like Trump.


it's like we're all on the titanic and a bunch of people are blocking the way to the lifeboats because 'buoyancy is a liberal myth'. and we're standing on the deck arguing with these guys as the boat slips into the water.
Quoting 87. luvtogolf:

Believe everything the liberal media tells you. That's strike one, two and three .


Liberal, conservative, stamp collecting advocacy, golflovers.com, or whatever... it honestly doesn't matter where you are getting your news from... check their sources and ask if they did due diligence to make the claims they are making. The fact that you seem to see everything as liberal vs conservative tells me that you need more in your intellectual diet.
We've had some fairly intense rainfall episodes over here on the island of Kaua'i these past few days with over 6" of rain, light winds and some moderate flooding in Hanalei. Very much La Nina-esque.
A tropical cyclone formation alert has been issued by JTWC for 99W (future TC Vardah).

GFS and HWRF both show a landfall near Godavari estuary in Andhra Pradesh.





Euro shows a much slower motion, curve much more to south, and eventual landfall near Chennai as a weaker system.
Quoting 87. luvtogolf:

Believe everything the liberal media tells you. That's strike one, two and three .


Here, we did your homework for you:
http://www.politicususa.com/2016/11/25/report-tho usands-wisconsin-votes-trump-recount-begins.html
Quoting 84. Snacker2:



Actually that's not true. Trump has over 5000 fewer votes. Inexplicably over-counted in Republican controlled electronic voter machine districts.


you can count them recount them and recount them again
DJT will become president of the united states as elected or by force and mom nature is gonna help make him look as foolish as all the rest when it comes to extreme events linked to global climactic change/shift and the denial that is happening well they won't be playing that card much longer in fact they may have to play the hurry up and save our asses card

has a president ever took the oath under a blanket of 10 feet of snow then a epic flood followed by the highest ever recorded seasonal tornado outbreak all within the first 3 months of office if he thinks this global warming thing is a joke well he is in for a big surprise let me tell you a big big surprise sad part is all the people that shall have to suffer from these things that have yet to come
Quoting 75. PensacolaDoug:

Every event gets blamed on agw. Why should a Deep South snowstorm be any different?


Make sure I get a really snarky reply so that all you folks can plus it!

Every event gets blamed (by somebody) on Hillary or Donald or...take your pick...

That's why it's best to not get your science, news, hard info of any type from blogs. Yes, a blog will be correct on occasion --some more than others. But in science especially, it is important to go read the actual research -at least the abstracts. Of course, if one is just playing games rather than seeking actual understanding, blogs are the way to go.
Man on Earth created His second Dark Age in the 20th and 21st Century.

It was greed, not any logic, that destroyed them for 2 centuries.


A Led Zeppelin song I believe sang it best on LZ four.



...the pain of War cannot exceed, the woe of aftermath...




Quoting 87. luvtogolf:

Believe everything the liberal media tells you. That's strike one, two and three .

Where is this liberal media of which you speak? I would be delighted to learn of its existence! I even have a test for how you easily can prove that a source is "liberal": If they gave more time to coverage of Bernie Sanders than they gave to Hillary and/or Donald, then that source is liberal (unless they were skewering Bernie, of course.) Any source that doesn't meet the above criteria may be dismissed as "not liberal."

Thanks in advance for the many sources to which you will link. ;^)



Quoting 97. Misanthroptimist:


Where is this liberal media of which you speak? I would be delighted to learn of its existence! I even have a test for how you easily can prove that a source is "liberal": If they gave more time to coverage of Bernie Sanders than they gave to Hillary and/or Donald, then that source is liberal (unless they were skewering Bernie, of course.) Any source that doesn't meet the above criteria may be dismissed as "not liberal."

Thanks in advance for the many sources to which you will link. ;^)
Quoting 57. 999Ai2016:


Wait, isn't this already happening (sort of) ?
Class-Action Lawsuit Adds to ExxonMobil's Climate Change Woes
Inside Climate News - Nov 21.
Related (good) news :
Exxon Won't Sponsor AGU, a Win of Sorts for Oil Giant's Opponents
Inside Climate News - Dec 5.

They need to sue individuals, not companies.
Quoting 93. Patrap:




LMAO
Quoting 49. Patrap:

..Midnight at the WU Oasis, send your Camel to bed'...


Dig that song...Maria Muldaur, born in 1943...still doin her folky blues...:)
While NOAA predicts the next solar cycle, #25, to be as strong as this weak one (http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/sites/default/files/imag es/u33/What%20Happened%20to%20Those%20Sunspots.pdf ), NASA recently predicted solar cycle #25 will be much less, possibly leading to a near "Maunder Minimum"
http://science1.nasa.gov/science-news/science-at- nasa/2006/10may_longrange/
Sadly both articles are a bit dated.
The most recent news article calls for a weaker cycle #24 - much like the "ice age" predictions of 1970
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/dr-sten-odenwald/wa iting-for-the-next-suns_b_11812282.html
Hopefully NASA or someone will do a scientific report.
Hurricane Season not done folks may see yet another system in the Western Caribbean and this one may want to go north. Something to watch as some models and their ensembles are picking up on a system in 5 to 7 days.

GFS


Navgem
techno
the funny part is even with the solar cycle indicative of a cool time
the warming is continuing and increasing at a rapid pace
should be first clue something is going on in the shed no
Quoting 58. Xandra:


Figure 4: Generalised TC track migration patterns during the pre- and post-1870 intervals.



Mean track of Cape Verde TCs (long black arrow) and the positions of the ITCZ (blue band) and the Bermuda High (red ‘H’) during (a) pre-Industrial LIA cooling, (b) pre-Industrial (post-LIA) warming, and (c) post-1870 GHG warming. Sites discussed in Fig. 3 are marked by circles (Yok Balum Cave (YB), Jamaica (JM), Puerto Rico (PR), Florida (FL), and Bermuda (BM)). Colour contours in (c) represent the likelihood a TC will occur during the Atlantic hurricane season (June 1–November 30) for the period 1944 to 1999 (adapted from ref. 60). The location and size of the red ‘H’s in a-c approximate BH position and strength, respectively. The position of the BH in (c) is based on 20th Century Reanalysis V2 wind vector data61. ITCZ latitudinal position and shape is approximated from previous work37,62. The base map was derived from the ETOPO1 1 Arc-Minute Global Relief Model63. The size of the light grey arrows in a-c represents the relative importance of western Caribbean cyclogenesis during each interval schematically.

Source: Scientific Reports6, Article number: 37522 (2016) doi:10.1038/srep37522


A very unsettling track indeed. The ocean temperature at Atlantic City reached a record high of 83° back in August. I shudder to think what could happen if a hurricane passes over those waters. It's a nightmarish scenario, as if sea level rise and land subsidence weren't enough.
Quoting 101. hydrus:

Dig that song...Maria Muldaur, born in 1943...still doin her folky blues...:)


The guitar solo is sublime as well on that track.
You realize much of the measured temperature increases are due to much denser populations in the urban heat islands over the decades. There are not that many "all time highs" recorded recently (even with the denser urban heat islands). There are other variables I'm sure at play in any heating or cooling that is actually occurring. Odd that they would place all the blame on carbon emissions... the achilles of western economies and in particular the US.

The Earth is much more resilient than the neurotic hand wringers would have you believe. It's come through billions of years of upheavals much more strenuous than the bit of CO2 it's getting now.
Quoting 62. luvtogolf:

The recount in Wisconsin is on going and so far with one million counted, Trump has 20 fewer votes. And get this - wait for it.... clinton has 20 fewer votes. How much is this costing our tax payers?

Nothing. Jill Stein raised millions to pay for it.
109. OKsky
Quoting 107. colty77:

You realize much of the measured temperature increases are due to much denser populations in the urban heat islands over the decades. There are not that many "all time highs" recorded recently (even with the denser urban heat islands). There are other variables I'm sure at play in any heating or cooling that is actually occurring. Odd that they would place all the blame on carbon emissions... the achilles of western economies and in particular the US.

The Earth is much more resilient than the neurotic hand wringers would have you believe. It's come through billions of years of upheavals much more strenuous than the bit of CO2 it's getting now.


[citation needed]
Quoting 107. colty77:

You realize much of the measured temperature increases are due to much denser populations in the urban heat islands over the decades. There are not that many "all time highs" recorded recently (even with the denser urban heat islands). There are other variables I'm sure at play in any heating or cooling that is actually occurring. Odd that they would place all the blame on carbon emissions... the achilles of western economies and in particular the US.

The Earth is much more resilient than the neurotic hand wringers would have you believe. It's come through billions of years of upheavals much more strenuous than the bit of CO2 it's getting now.


Citation please. UHI is accounted for and adjusted for in the data. And record highs and lows can be found here: Link

As for other variables, what would those be? Warming and cooling do not happen by magic, the IPCC covers the forcings as well:



Anything real to add or just more of the same denial talking points that take all of 3 minutes to debunk?
Quoting 103. StormTrackerScott:

Hurricane Season not done folks may see yet another system in the Western Caribbean and this one may want to go north. Something to watch as some models and their ensembles are picking up on a system in 5 to 7 days.

GFS


Navgem



GFS and other models are not forecasting the storm depicted in NAVGEM, though they do predict a weak low off Colombia. NAVGEM looks like a spurious outcome, a risk inherent in longer range models; I'm one south Floridian who won't take it seriously. Get back to me when there's at least a tropical depression in the southwest Caribbean and a favorable setup for northward movement and intensification, but I expect that will be sometime in late May or June at the earliest.
Quoting 96. Patrap:

Man on Earth created His second Dark Age in the 20th and 21st Century.

It was greed, not any logic, that destroyed them for 2 centuries.


A Led Zeppelin song I believe sang it best on LZ four.



...the pain of War cannot exceed, the woe of aftermath...







Interesting. Also, ever read Robert Heinlein's "Revolt in 2100" (written in 1953!) ? About the thinking people finally overthrowing the ultra right religious takeover of the US.
Quoting 107. colty77:

You realize much of the measured temperature increases are due to much denser populations in the urban heat islands over the decades. There are not that many "all time highs" recorded recently (even with the denser urban heat islands). There are other variables I'm sure at play in any heating or cooling that is actually occurring. Odd that they would place all the blame on carbon emissions... the achilles of western economies and in particular the US.

The Earth is much more resilient than the neurotic hand wringers would have you believe. It's come through billions of years of upheavals much more strenuous than the bit of CO2 it's getting now.


Our early ancestors have been here for 200,000 years and they want us to believe that it took the last 100 years to end it. I heard a guy on the radio that said that man will be extinct by 2040 due to climate change. Yea right. Even a mod said on here a couple of days ago that it's too late, the damage is done. If it is too late then what's the problem. Fear mongering......
Quoting 113. luvtogolf:



Our early ancestors have been here for 200,000 years and they want us to believe that it took the last 100 years to end it. I heard a guy on the radio that said that man will be extinct by 2040 due to climate change. Yea right. Even a mod said on here a couple of days ago that it's too late, the damage is done. If it is too late then what's the problem. Fear mongering......


I want you to believe in the basic physics and chemistry behind the properties of gases. That's it. Let's start there.
Quoting 103. StormTrackerScott:

Hurricane Season not done folks may see yet another system in the Western Caribbean and this one may want to go north. Something to watch as some models and their ensembles are picking up on a system in 5 to 7 days.

GFS


Navgem



At this time of year there are a lot of thickness lines between us in the Mid Atlantic and any tropical cyclone.

December will deal me a whole 'nother set of hazards including likely some snow and ice. The 12Z GFS actually looks like an ice setup sometime late NEXT week somewhere along or near 35-40N and east of the Mississippi although it didn't actually show an ice storm.
Quoting 107. colty77:

You realize much of the measured temperature increases are due to much denser populations in the urban heat islands over the decades. There are not that many "all time highs" recorded recently (even with the denser urban heat islands). There are other variables I'm sure at play in any heating or cooling that is actually occurring. Odd that they would place all the blame on carbon emissions... the achilles of western economies and in particular the US.

The Earth is much more resilient than the neurotic hand wringers would have you believe. It's come through billions of years of upheavals much more strenuous than the bit of CO2 it's getting now.



Really??? You think that urban islands (which occur on land, you do realize?) accounts for the rise in temps? Do you understand that 70% of the earth is water? Are are you just obtuse?

And, "a bit of CO2"?????? Really????? Is "a bit" a scientific unit of measure?????

This is what you call a worthy contribution to the discussion?

Please try harder next time. "Ass Facts" (facts pulled from one's ass) hold little weight here.
Quoting 107. colty77:

You realize much of the measured temperature increases are due to much denser populations in the urban heat islands over the decades. There are not that many "all time highs" recorded recently (even with the denser urban heat islands). There are other variables I'm sure at play in any heating or cooling that is actually occurring. Odd that they would place all the blame on carbon emissions... the achilles of western economies and in particular the US.

The Earth is much more resilient than the neurotic hand wringers would have you believe. It's come through billions of years of upheavals much more strenuous than the bit of CO2 it's getting now.

Even if surface temperatures were unreliable satellite derived measurements of land and ocean data as well as direct observations of ocean data also point to warming. Glaciers are also universally decreasing in mass globally and sea levels have risen 8 inches in the past century. As for impact no the Earth will not literally be destroyed by climate change but increasing temperatures will likely cause further rising of sea level threatening major metropolitan areas and many low lying countries causing a renewed refugee crisis magnitudes more than the one we see now. Water scarcity will become more widespread especially in areas dependent on water from snowpacks and glaciers. Climate zones will shift which will cause major agricultural shifts leading to starvation famine and political unrest.
Quoting 94. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



you can count them recount them and recount them again
DJT will become president of the united states as elected or by force and mom nature is gonna help make him look as foolish as all the rest when it comes to extreme events linked to global climactic change/shift and the denial that is happening well they won't be playing that card much longer in fact they may have to play the hurry up and save our asses card

has a president ever took the oath under a blanket of 10 feet of snow then a epic flood followed by the highest ever recorded seasonal tornado outbreak all within the first 3 months of office if he thinks this global warming thing is a joke well he is in for a big surprise let me tell you a big big surprise sad part is all the people that shall have to suffer from these things that have yet to come


Whoa.. wait! I live near where he's taking that oath.

119. OKsky
Quoting 116. ohiofog:




Really??? You think that urban islands (which occur on land, you do realize?) accounts for the rise in temps? Do you understand that 70% of the earth is water? Are are you just obtuse?

And, "a bit of CO2"?????? Really????? Is "a bit" a scientific unit of measure?????

This is what you call a worthy contribution to the discussion?

Please try harder next time. "Ass Facts" (facts pulled from one's ass) hold little weight here.


8 bits of CO2 make a byte of CO2. =P
Welcome to the blog, btw!
First secret meeting of the liberal press members circa 1927. They took an oath of secrecy never to divulge the conspiracy. They meet every year in a secret location.

Quoting 107. colty77:

You realize much of the measured temperature increases are due to much denser populations in the urban heat islands over the decades. There are not that many "all time highs" recorded recently (even with the denser urban heat islands). There are other variables I'm sure at play in any heating or cooling that is actually occurring. Odd that they would place all the blame on carbon emissions... the achilles of western economies and in particular the US.

The Earth is much more resilient than the neurotic hand wringers would have you believe. It's come through billions of years of upheavals much more strenuous than the bit of CO2 it's getting now.


And how many humans were around those billions of yars?? We are talking ecosystem niche. Humans cannot tolerate the heat ranges predicted. Go ahead and plan your grandchildren's funerals.
Quoting 94. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



you can count them recount them and recount them again
DJT will become president of the united states as elected or by force and mom nature is gonna help make him look as foolish as all the rest when it comes to extreme events linked to global climactic change/shift and the denial that is happening well they won't be playing that card much longer in fact they may have to play the hurry up and save our asses card

has a president ever took the oath under a blanket of 10 feet of snow then a epic flood followed by the highest ever recorded seasonal tornado outbreak all within the first 3 months of office if he thinks this global warming thing is a joke well he is in for a big surprise let me tell you a big big surprise sad part is all the people that shall have to suffer from these things that have yet to come


The storm known as the Kennedy Inaugural Snowstorm

Link




If the Veterans surround the Capital in January as planned.

The Cheeto may have to swear in Trump tower.


Now theres a twist.

Try the Egg nog.

It is vary tasty.


Not even President yet and he's done more in a month that whats his name did in 8 years.

Donald Trump said Monday that Japan's SoftBank has agreed to invest $50 billion in the U.S., aiming to create 50,000 jobs.

He announced the deal after meeting with SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, a Japanese billionaire and technology investor, at Trump Tower in New York.


Poll: Trump's Carrier deal is wildly popular
Donald Trump’s first major action as president-elect — the deal he and Vice President-elect Mike Pence struck last week with Carrier Corp. — is earning high marks from American voters, a new Politico/Morning Consult poll shows.

Voters surveyed overwhelmingly view Trump’s negotiations with Carrier — which resulted in about 1,000 manufacturing jobs at the heating, ventilation and air conditioning company remaining in Indiana rather than moving to Mexico — as an appropriate use of presidential prerogative. And a majority of voters say the Carrier deal gives them a more favorable view of Trump, though his overall favorability ratings were virtually unchanged from mid-November.
Quoting 113. luvtogolf:



Our early ancestors have been here for 200,000 years and they want us to believe that it took the last 100 years to end it. I heard a guy on the radio that said that man will be extinct by 2040 due to climate change. Yea right. Even a mod said on here a couple of days ago that it's too late, the damage is done. If it is too late then what's the problem. Fear mongering......

Even if it's too late to prevent disruptive increases in temperature and sea level, it is not too late to prepare for them. And just because a person has already developed emphysema doesn't mean it's pointless to stop smoking
Quoting 123. Patrap:

If the Veterans surround the Capital in January as planned.

The Cheeto may have to swear in Trump tower.


Now theres a twist.

Try the Egg nog.

It is vary tasty.




That's Cheeto Jesus to you, sir. Please show some respect
127. OKsky
Quoting 126. ACSeattle:


That's Cheeto Jesus to you, sir. Please show some respect

"Orange Julius Caesar" and "Tang" are my favorites so far.
Quoting 39. PensacolaDoug:

Let's see it snow down here. It'll be a sure sign of agw.

No, it's a sure sign of weather variability. All AGW would have to say about it is that over climatalogically significant time periods (30 years or more) the incidence of snow storms in the south will be less.
North Dakota is really taking it on the chin with this blizzard. This storm evolved rapidly and was not forecast at all. Travel is all but impossible in the rural areas.
Quoting 119. OKsky:



8 bits of CO2 make a byte of CO2. =P
Welcome to the blog, btw!



You're not old enough to remember the 6 bit bytes of the CDC 6600, the first computer fast enough to run a primitive equation model in real time to generate useful forecasts (in 1967 I think).

An operational barotropic model had been run since the mid 1950s until its discontinuance in 1988.

Quoting 128. riverat544:


No, it's a sure sign of weather variability. All AGW would have to say about it is that over climatalogically significant time periods (30 years or more) the incidence of snow storms in the south will be less.


There is a statistically significant trend in DC metro for less snow and (even) more big dumps when it does occasionally snow.
Atmospheric CO2 for November 2016

403.64 parts per million (ppm)


Daily CO2

Quoting 125. ACSeattle:
Even if it's too late to prevent disruptive increases in temperature and sea level, it is not too late to prepare for them. And just because a person has already developed emphysema doesn't mean it's pointless to stop smoking
I've known people who toted around oxygen bottles to breathe from due to emphysema and kept smoking until the very day they died.
Quoting 113. luvtogolf:



Even a mod said on here a couple of days ago that it's too late, the damage is done. If it is too late then what's the problem. Fear mongering......

its too late to stop it yes
but by changing our ways and working towards a common good for the planet
it will correct itself over time to where it should be
on the current path well it may not work out to well
and to be honest we really have no idea how it will evolve
maybe if a dinosaur was alive still (grothar)
you could ask him how the weather and climate was 1,250,000 years ago
Quoting 131. georgevandenberghe:



There is a statistically significant trend in DC metro for less snow and (even) more big dumps when it does occasionally snow.



I was really into playing ice hockey as a kid growing up in the D.C. area. Every Winter there would be at least a few weeks or more when we could play ice hockey on the local lake.
I would like to see a graph of the number of safe ice skating days (4" or thicker ice) from the 1960s to 2015 on my old neighborhood lake.

I wonder when ice skating in the D.C. area will be just a distant memory.
Quoting 120. Grothar:
First secret meeting of the liberal press members circa 1927. They took an oath of secrecy never to divulge the conspiracy. They meet every year in a secret location.

Humph. I google searched that image and it came up empty.
137. OKsky
Quoting 130. georgevandenberghe:



You're not old enough to remember the 6 bit bytes of the CDC 6600, the first computer fast enough to run a primitive equation model in real time to generate useful forecasts (in 1967 I think).

An operational barotropic model had been run since the mid 1950s until its discontinuance in 1988.




I LOVE computer history stuff!
It looks to me that a byte was actually 12 bits in that machine, but that a char only used half that using an encoding called "display code". Also the address registers were all 18 bit.. I bet optimizing code to run smoothly on this thing was a nightmare. :D

Edit: source (since that is today's theme) :)
It has been raining moderately (and on some occasions heavily) for most of the day.We do need the rain though but some Christmas shoppers may find this as a problem to move around in.More rain is in the forecast for Thursday and then eventually Monday.If this keeps up,then by the end of December,D.C should be out of its drought.
Quoting 107. colty77:

You realize much of the measured temperature increases are due to much denser populations in the urban heat islands over the decades. There are not that many "all time highs" recorded recently (even with the denser urban heat islands). There are other variables I'm sure at play in any heating or cooling that is actually occurring. Odd that they would place all the blame on carbon emissions... the achilles of western economies and in particular the US.

The Earth is much more resilient than the neurotic hand wringers would have you believe. It's come through billions of years of upheavals much more strenuous than the bit of CO2 it's getting now.


You can cast out the scientific research that was done concerning the UHI, if you wish. How do you explain the fact that the Arctic region is warming at more than double the rate of the rest of the planet? Just how much territory do you think has been urbanized inside the Arctic Circle lately? How much has Santa expanded his facilities at The North Pole? These are questions that we need answered, right?
cold looks like its being squeeze out of the arctic as cold dense air settles on both sides of the high arctic
Quoting 124. luvtogolf:

Not even President yet and he's done more in a month that whats his name did in 8 years.




ol' whatshisname saved a million and a half jobs with the auto bailout alone. we've also had about 80 straight months of private-sector job growth. the kind of reality-denial in your comment is just sad.
Things in North Dakota look bad at the protest camp.

Hypothermia, wet wood, freezing supplies large snowdrifts according to twitter. People are asking for prayers. I think the out of state folks got in over their heads
The Mets in Nashville say more cold for a large part of the Eastern U.S....


In the ext fcst, The Canadian sfc high will be in close proximity on
Sat morning. Low temps will be in the 15 to 20 degree range, with
locally colder areas likely.
Upper pattern will be nearly zonal with
rebounding heights so a warming trend will be in store. Temps will
be back up to near 50 degrees by Sunday and Monday.

The next chance of rain will be Sunday as a frontal system
approaches. Not too bad temp wise behind the Sunday fropa. However,
an arctic cold blast may be in store by mid week. Euro and gfs
solutions match up quite favorably. 8 to 14 day outlook in support
as well.


It is always a few degrees colder on the plateau...Maybe a few single digits readings..

Quoting 144. schwankmoe:
ol' whatshisname saved a million and a half jobs with the auto bailout alone. we've also had about 80 straight months of private-sector job growth. the kind of reality-denial in your comment is just sad.
The recovery has been anemic by modern standards. Your comment is just sad.


Quoting 145. nymore:

Things in North Dakota look bad at the protest camp.

Hypothermia, wet wood, freezing supplies large snowdrifts according to twitter. People are asking for prayers. I think the out of state folks got in over their heads


pack up clear out winter settles in chills will be nearing -40 and below soon if not already

Quoting 128. riverat544:


No, it's a sure sign of weather variability. All AGW would have to say about it is that over climatalogically significant time periods (30 years or more) the incidence of snow storms in the south will be less.
See? Now this response actually makes sense and not snarky at all.
Quoting 147. PensacolaDoug:

The recovery has been anemic by modern standards. Slowest ever Your comment is just sad.


How did he do with the debt? Also, he has pardoned more criminals out of prison than the previous 11 presidents combined. That's just fantastic for the criminals isn't it...
lol.Like a person that just got elected to run the most powerful office in the world cares about what a blogger says on this site enough to make a tweet about it.Some peoples heads are really somewhere else but now its time to get back to making some hot chocolate for the kids and put the finishing touches on the Christmas decorations around the house on this rainy Tuesday.Cheers.
Quoting 124. luvtogolf:

Not even President yet and he's done more in a month that whats his name did in 8 years.

Donald Trump said Monday that Japan's SoftBank has agreed to invest $50 billion in the U.S., aiming to create 50,000 jobs.

He announced the deal after meeting with SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, a Japanese billionaire and technology investor, at Trump Tower in New York.


Poll: Trump's Carrier deal is wildly popular
Donald Trump%u2019s first major action as president-elect %u2014 the deal he and Vice President-elect Mike Pence struck last week with Carrier Corp. %u2014 is earning high marks from American voters, a new Politico/Morning Consult poll shows.

Voters surveyed overwhelmingly view Trump%u2019s negotiations with Carrier %u2014 which resulted in about 1,000 manufacturing jobs at the heating, ventilation and air conditioning company remaining in Indiana rather than moving to Mexico %u2014 as an appropriate use of presidential prerogative. And a majority of voters say the Carrier deal gives them a more favorable view of Trump, though his overall favorability ratings were virtually unchanged from mid-November.



what are you talking about? That Softbank deal was in the works BEFORE the election, Trump taking ownership of it is laughable as is the Carrier deal. He only kept around 700 jobs, lost over a thousand, gave the company a huge tax cut, and they're also cutting wages. Wonderful "Deal" that is. I guess all a company has to do is threaten Trump with sending jobs overseas and they'll get all the tax cuts they want.

Until Trump gets us out of the worst recession in our lifetimes, he has a long way to go to match what Obama did for our country.
Quoting 152. washingtonian115:

lol.Like a person that just got elected to run the most powerful office in the world cares about what a blogger says on this site enough to make a tweet about it.Some peoples heads are really somewhere else but now its time to get back to making some hot chocolate for the kids and put the finishing touches on the Christmas decorations around the house on this rainy Tuesday.Cheers.


the funny thing is.... Trump has tweeted about such insignificant things. If he read a blog where someone said something that really irked him, he would in fact tweet about it, that's the kind of person he is.
Quoting 153. pipelines:



what are you talking about? That deal was in the works BEFORE the election, Trump taking ownership of it is laughable as is the Carrier deal. He only kept around 700 jobs, lost over a thousand, gave the company a huge tax cut, and they're also cutting wages. Wonderful "Deal" that is.

Until Trump gets us out of the worst recession in our lifetimes, he has a long way to go to match what Obama did for our country.

You mean after 8 years of dems, (Obama) we're still in a recession? Don't tell Schwank!
Quoting 147. PensacolaDoug:

The recovery has been anemic by modern standards. Slowest ever Your comment is just sad.


4.6% unemployment, ~80 months of job growth, the stock market tripling, it's been pretty dang solid.

unfortunately some people have gone out of their way to convince you that things are rotten. it's like how they scream up and down that crime rates are terrible even though violent crime rates have been going down for decades.

I'm sure if the economic recovery we currently have happened under a republican administration you'd be singing a different tune.

anyway, back to climate.
Quoting 124. luvtogolf:

Not even President yet and he's done more in a month that whats his name did in 8 years.

Donald Trump said Monday that Japan's SoftBank has agreed to invest $50 billion in the U.S., aiming to create 50,000 jobs.

He announced the deal after meeting with SoftBank CEO Masayoshi Son, a Japanese billionaire and technology investor, at Trump Tower in New York.


Poll: Trump's Carrier deal is wildly popular
Donald Trump’s first major action as president-elect — the deal he and Vice President-elect Mike Pence struck last week with Carrier Corp. — is earning high marks from American voters, a new Politico/Morning Consult poll shows.

Voters surveyed overwhelmingly view Trump’s negotiations with Carrier — which resulted in about 1,000 manufacturing jobs at the heating, ventilation and air conditioning company remaining in Indiana rather than moving to Mexico — as an appropriate use of presidential prerogative. And a majority of voters say the Carrier deal gives them a more favorable view of Trump, though his overall favorability ratings were virtually unchanged from mid-November.


Wait. We're supposed to be glad that Trump negotiated deals with companies to keep their jobs here in exchange for millions of dollars in tax cuts? Millions of dollars that could have gone to improving our infrastructure, education, etc? As Sarah Palin said, "That's crony capitalism. Republicans oppose this, remember?"

When Sarah Palin has become a voice of reason, we've reached peak 2016 and should just stop.
159. OKsky
Quoting 156. PensacolaDoug:


You mean after 8 years of dems, (Obama) we're still in a recession? Don't tell Schwank!


Reading comprehension: F
Quoting 156. PensacolaDoug:


You mean after 8 years of dems, (Obama) we're still in a recession? Don't tell Schwank!


No, we aren't in a recession even by heavily slanted conservative standards. But recessions could hit at any moment and it would take Trump getting us out of one to even come close to what Obama has done for us.
Everyone have a safe weather evening and see Yall in the am; here is the low temp forecast for Friday morning across the US; but please don't use this as proof of global cooling as you would be grossly incorrect.....................It's called "Winter".

Graphic Forecast of Temperatures Across the US from the National Digital Forecast Database



Quoting 153. pipelines:



Until Trump gets us out of the worst recession in our lifetimes, he has a long way to go to match what Obama did for our country.


no worries, as soon as he takes the oath of office DJT will start taking credit for the obama "trump recovery".

on january 20th, all of a sudden low unemployment, consistent GDP growth and the booming stock market will become evidence that DJT has already made america great again.
Quoting 136. bappit:
Humph. I google searched that image and it came up empty.
Hey, Doug! Can you find that image? I think it really is secret.
Quoting 159. OKsky:



Reading comprehension: F
Writing clearly: "F".
Quoting 163. bappit:

Hey, Doug! Can you find that image? I think it really is secret.
It may be. I'm not gonna bother!
Quoting 160. pipelines:



No, we aren't in a recession even by heavily slanted conservative standards. But recessions could hit at any moment and it would take Trump getting us out of one to even come close to what Obama has done for us.
There are no "heavily slanted" conservative methods. Get a grip LT. The definition of a recession is "a fall of the GDP in two successive quarters."
Quoting 157. schwankmoe:



4.6% unemployment, ~80 months of job growth, the stock market tripling, it's been pretty dang solid.

unfortunately some people have gone out of their way to convince you that things are rotten. it's like how they scream up and down that crime rates are terrible even though violent crime rates have been going down for decades.

I'm sure if the economic recovery we currently have happened under a republican administration you'd be singing a different tune.

anyway, back to climate.
It's been anemic under any administration. If you factor in all the under-employed part-timers and people who have given up looking, the rate is much much higher.
Quoting 165. PensacolaDoug:
It may be. I'm not gonna bother!
You would deny the reality?
170. OKsky
Quoting 164. PensacolaDoug:

Writing clearly: "F".


Have you seen this yet?

Ok, sry no snark... it actually looks hilariously awesome and I want a copy really bad.
Quoting 167. nrtiwlnvragn:

M5.8 - 25km SW of Scarborough, Trinidad and Tobago
pottery is rockin and rollin it seems
Quoting 170. OKsky:



Have you seen this yet?

Ok, sry no snark... it actually looks hilariously awesome and I want a copy really bad.
Now that's a funny link!!!
Quoting 169. bappit:

You would deny the reality?

I admit and deny nothing!
Quoting 168. PensacolaDoug:

If you factor in all the under-employed part-timers and people who have given up looking, the rate is much much higher.


it's not like obama changed the way unemployment was measured in 2009. it's been the same measurement for many decades, so by comparison it's far better than the last guy, and in fact the only other administration in the last 40 years that compares is bill clinton's.

again, if this happened under the GOP you'd be singing a different tune. i guarantee it.
Quoting 153. pipelines:



what are you talking about? That Softbank deal was in the works BEFORE the election, Trump taking ownership of it is laughable as is the Carrier deal. He only kept around 700 jobs, lost over a thousand, gave the company a huge tax cut, and they're also cutting wages. Wonderful "Deal" that is. I guess all a company has to do is threaten Trump with sending jobs overseas and they'll get all the tax cuts they want.

Until Trump gets us out of the worst recession in our lifetimes, he has a long way to go to match what Obama did for our country.
The CEO in Japan supposedly said he wouldn't do it if HRC had been elected.
Quoting 173. PensacolaDoug:
I admit and deny nothing!
Sounds like "Yes, I do deny reality."
Dont feed the trolls
Quoting 171. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

pottery is rockin and rollin it seems



Based on Hood's blog he is up in your country freezing his ***
Quoting 175. schwankmoe:



it's not like obama changed the way unemployment was measured in 2009. it's been the same measurement for many decades, so by comparison it's far better than the last guy, and in fact the only other administration in the last 40 years that compares is bill clinton's.

again, if this happened under the GOP you'd be singing a different tune. i guarantee it.
You think you know me. You don't. I was not a Trump supporter. When it came down to him or HRC, I became one reluctantly.. I don't know how well he will do. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, for now.
Quoting 177. bappit:

Sounds like "Yes, I do deny reality."
I don't get where you're going with this, but ok, I'm good with that.
Quoting 170. OKsky:



Have you seen this yet?

Ok, sry no snark... it actually looks hilariously awesome and I want a copy really bad.


That book is pretty fun, just not quite as funny as I hoped. Still glad I got it.
Quoting 178. ohiofog:
Dont feed the trolls
Demonstration of how others do their thing in progress.

Edit: I'll give Doug credit for posting some funny stuff in the past--in the good sense of funny.
Gotta take a break. This was fun. I still want my Gulf Coast blizzard agw be damned!
Quoting 179. nrtiwlnvragn:



Based on Hood's blog he is up in your country freezing his ***
must be visiting family over in Alberta its only minus holy @#$! outside must be loving it
Climate science illiteracy marches on...

(heck, at this point, we should just call it science illiteracy)
Calgary Int'l Airport
Date:
3:00 PM MST Tuesday 6 December 2016
Condition:
Ice Crystals
Pressure:
30.5 inches
Tendency:
Falling
Temperature:
-2.0°F
Dew point:
-11.7°F
Humidity:
63%
Wind:
N 15 mph
Wind Chill:
-22
Visibility:
6 miles
I am so proud of myself! I wrote my own blog!

Link

The home of nonsense!
Quoting 176. PensacolaDoug:

The CEO in Japan supposedly said he wouldn't do it if HRC had been elected.


sounds like a "he says, she said" situation and people are just trumping their own horns.

What if this was a Chinese person saying $100 billion dollars and two jobs? Invest at your own risk and don't expect a bailout. jeez.
From Scientific American:

An Open Letter from Scientists to President-Elect Trump on Climate Change

More than 800 Earth scientists and energy experts (and counting) urge the incoming president to take six crucial steps

By Michael D. Lemonick on December 6, 2016


2015 was the warmest year on record; 2016 is on track to be warmer still Credit: NASA Scientific Visualization Studio/Goddard Space Flight Center. Public Domain

President-elect Trump has called climate change a Chinese hoax, vowed to dismantle America's climate and clean energy policies, and appointed climate deniers with ties to the fossil fuel industry to his transition team and Cabinet.

In response, more than 800 Earth science and energy experts in 46 states have signed an open letter to Donald Trump, urging him to take six key steps to address climate change to help protect “America’s economy, national security, and public health and safety.”

All signatories are pursuing or hold a PhD in relevant disciplines, with a few exceptions for other leaders in the field. All are either American or work in the United States.

The release of this open letter is accompanied by a public petition, which can be signed at Change.org.

Read more >>

A climate scientist who decided not to fly
I'd assumed that electricity and driving were my largest sources of emissions. Instead, it turned out that the 50,000 miles I'd flown that year (two international and half a dozen domestic flights, typical for postdocs in the sciences who are expected to attend conferences and meetings) utterly dominated my emissions.
Quoting 136. bappit:

Humph. I google searched that image and it came up empty.


It's a secret photo I took myself.
NO way AGW doesn't steal the show in the coming years. It's an issue that's too large for most to grasp. Knowing that, we're in trouble. People don't learn on a how it positively affects my neighbor level any more. It's me based mixed with individual morality thinking. We're know little, love self much culture think. People just aren't tuned in to what really matters. This is a long game think. Ignoring it will ensure disaster.
Quoting 190. CraigsIsland:



sounds like a "he says, she said" situation and people are just trumping their own horns.

What if this was a Chinese person saying $100 billion dollars and two jobs? Invest at your own risk and don't expect a bailout. jeez.


There's that hard hitting "facts" they love to use..... "supposedly"
Quoting 89. OKsky:



Liberal, conservative, stamp collecting advocacy, golflovers.com, or whatever... it honestly doesn't matter where you are getting your news from... check their sources and ask if they did due diligence to make the claims they are making. The fact that you seem to see everything as liberal vs conservative tells me that you need more in your intellectual diet.


Private: Sir! They're invading! They're coming in on our left flank! If we don't get reinforcements over there we're going to be overrun!
General: Are you liberal or conservative?
Private: What? Er...um...I guess I would be considered liberal.
General: Nothing to worry about then, we'll be fine.
Private: What? How will we be fine?
General: You're a liberal, and liberals always lie.
Private: But sir, I'm not lying! You can see the smoke from...
General: It's probably just bears cooking their salmon.
Private: Huh? No, sir you can see their tanks coming into the...
General: How do you know it's their tanks and not just some boulders that look like tanks?
Private: Sir, I know what tanks look like! If you just look through these binoculars you can see they have battalions of troops...
General: Probably just the locals out for a stroll.
Private: In the middle of a warzone?
General: It happens.
Private: Carrying machine guns?
General: I did say there were bears.
Private: And heat seeking missiles and mortars?
General: Bears can be violent. And big.
Private: For the love of...oh no...
Enemy General: Ha! I have you now! Surrender!
Private: I warned you.
General: This isn't the enemy general! It's just you playing one of your evil liberal mind tricks!
Private: *facepalm*
Quoting 180. PensacolaDoug:

You think you know me. You don't. I was not a Trump supporter. When it came down to him or HRC, I became one reluctantly.. I don't know how well he will do. I'll give him the benefit of the doubt, for now.


actually, yes i do. you 'reluctantly' sided with HRC because the polls showed she was likely to win. the fact that you're so quick to full-throatedly defend trump shows how simple and tribal your politics are. i'm absolutely sure that if, say, mccain had won in 2008 and somehow the same economic recovery we currently have had occurred you'd be shouting it from the mountaintops. i guarantee it.

you're going to defend the guy until he's undefendable. this is the same thing people did with W. and the same people who spent almost 8 years trying to sell americans on that guy (because hey, he's not a democrat amirite?), only to turn around in 2008 and say 'W? never heard of him' are trying to defend trump. same as it ever was.

his climate policy is going to be absolutely horrible.
Quoting 193. Grothar:



It's a secret photo I took myself.


You were in London May 8, 1945?
Quoting 107. colty77:

You realize much of the measured temperature increases are due to much denser populations in the urban heat islands over the decades...


You start off with a big lie and proceed down the road of ignorance from there. There are THOUSANDS of temperature stations across the planet, and most of them are not located in the middle of cities. In addition to land sensors, there are also ocean buoys, satellites, etc. ALL of them are reporting an upward trend.

Moreover, removing all sensors data from cities had no impact on the overall trend. Furthermore a Koch funded temperature study came to the same conclusion.

All your post says to me is that you've never cracked open a physics book, let alone done any sort of in depth analysis on the meteorological record.
Quoting 176. PensacolaDoug:

The CEO in Japan supposedly said he wouldn't do it if HRC had been elected.


There is no quote from the CEO of SoftBank saying any such thing on record.

Let's use a little common sense here. SoftBank and Saudi Arabia created the SoftBank Vision Fund in October in order to invest some 100 billion dollars into the high-tech economy. The United States has, by far, the largest high-tech economy in the world. Only a moron would invest that much money without a sizable portion of it being invested in the US.

I mean really, don't be fooled by Trump. This is the same guy that just knowingly lied about the number of jobs he "Saved" at Carrier.
Quoting 196. Xyrus2000:



Private: Sir! They're invading! They're coming in on our left flank! If we don't get reinforcements over there we're going to be overrun!
General: Are you liberal or conservative?
Private: What? Er...um...I guess I would be considered liberal.
General: Nothing to worry about then, we'll be fine.
Private: What? How will we be fine?
General: You're a liberal, and liberals always lie.
Private: But sir, I'm not lying! You can see the smoke from...
General: It's probably just bears cooking their salmon.
Private: Huh? No, sir you can see their tanks coming into the...
General: How do you know it's their tanks and not just some boulders that look like tanks?
Private: Sir, I know what tanks look like! If you just look through these binoculars you can see they have battalions of troops...
General: Probably just the locals out for a stroll.
Private: In the middle of a warzone?
General: It happens.
Private: Carrying machine guns?
General: I did say there were bears.
Private: And heat seeking missiles and mortars?
General: Bears can be violent. And big.
Private: For the love of...oh no...
Enemy General: Ha! I have you now! Surrender!
Private: I warned you.
General: This isn't the enemy general! It's just you playing one of your evil liberal mind tricks!
Private: *facepalm*


Can I put this in my blog of nonsense and other funny stuff? I will only do it with yoie permision.


Special weather statement in effect

First significant lake effect snow event of the season on the way Thursday night through Friday.

The coldest air of the season will be ushered in by strong westerly winds beginning Thursday. Snow squalls will rapidly develop over the Great Lakes, and will quickly come ashore and affect many communities across Southern and Central Ontario beginning Thursday night.

The snow squalls will drift around as the winds become more northwesterly later this week, with latest indications suggesting potential for a strong snow squall off of Georgian Bay into Simcoe County, and another strong snow squall or two from Lake Huron into Huron, Middlesex and Lambton Counties of Southwestern Ontario.

Significant accumulating snow is possible from the strongest snow squalls.

Hazardous winter driving conditions from heavy snow and blowing snow are anticipated to begin Thursday. Motorists planning travel into the regions should be prepared to change plans accordingly.
Please continue to monitor alerts and forecasts issued by Environment Canada. To report severe weather, send an email to ec.cpio-tempetes-ospc-storms.ec@canada.ca or tweet reports to #ONStorm.
Quoting 200. pipelines:



There is no quote from the CEO of SoftBank saying any such thing on record.

Let's use a little common sense here. SoftBank and Saudi Arabia created the SoftBank Vision Fund in October in order to invest some 100 billion dollars into the high-tech economy. The United States has, by far, the largest high-tech economy in the world. Only a moron would invest that much money without a sizable portion of it being invested in the US.

I mean really, don't be fooled by Trump. This is the same guy that just knowingly lied about the number of jobs he "Saved" at Carrier.


what do they say about "common sense"?

I fear that is too much to ask of his level of "sense".
Quoting 204. ohiofog:



what do they say about "common sense"?

I fear that is too much to ask of his level of "sense".

His type of sense is nonsense. In fact, the most common sense is nonsense, as people believe it like brain washed minions. But thats normal.

http://buffalonews.com/2016/12/06/lake-effect-snow- south-metro-buffalo-bring-1-2-feet/
From INSURGE intelligence:

Solar can already generate more energy than oil, says major scientific review

And is twice as powerful than previously thought

by Nafeez Ahmed

While the world has been going crazy, solar has quietly tipped over the edge and kicked oil and gas off the cliff of history.

A new scientific review finds that scientists are dramatically underestimating the efficiency and power of solar panels, because their data is at least seven years old.

And that’s why most of them have managed to overlook a startling fact: For every unit of energy invested, solar can now generate the same if not more energy than oil and gas.

Read more >>

Quoting 189. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

I am so proud of myself! I wrote my own blog!

Link

The home of nonsense!

Just so you know, the blog should be weather related but it is okay if you cannot do so.
2 or 3 feet of Lake Effect forecasted in Western NY
Lake Effect Snow Warning
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BUFFALO NY
454 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

NYZ019-085-070600-
/O.CON.KBUF.LE.W.0009.161208T1100Z-161210T1100Z/
CHAUTAUQUA-SOUTHERN ERIE-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...JAMESTOWN...ORCHARD PARK...SPRINGVILLE
454 PM EST TUE DEC 6 2016

...LAKE EFFECT SNOW WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM THURSDAY
TO 6 AM EST SATURDAY...

* LOCATIONS...CHAUTAUQUA AND SOUTHERN ERIE COUNTIES.

* TIMING...FROM LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT.

* ACCUMULATIONS...4 TO 8 INCHES THURSDAY...6 TO 11 INCHES
THURSDAY NIGHT...5 TO 9 INCHES FRIDAY...AND 3 TO 5 INCHES
FRIDAY NIGHT...LEADING TO STORM TOTALS OF 2 TO 3 FEET IN THE
MOST PERSISTENT LAKE SNOWS.

* WINDS...WEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 35 MPH.

* VISIBILITIES...LESS THAN A QUARTER MILE AT TIMES.

* IMPACTS...HEAVY LAKE EFFECT SNOW AND AREAS OF BLOWING SNOW
WILL LEAD TO SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW ON AREA
ROADWAYS AND VERY POOR VISIBILITIES AT TIMES...RESULTING IN
HAZARDOUS TO DANGEROUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS.
Quoting 157. schwankmoe:



4.6% unemployment, ~80 months of job growth, the stock market tripling, it's been pretty dang solid.

unfortunately some people have gone out of their way to convince you that things are rotten. it's like how they scream up and down that crime rates are terrible even though violent crime rates have been going down for decades.

I'm sure if the economic recovery we currently have happened under a republican administration you'd be singing a different tune.

anyway, back to climate.


People like PD are so wrapped up in their own world of denial and dissonance there is no amount of facts or data you can provide that will convince them otherwise. It's like a religion or a cult. It doesn't matter what the subject is, either. If it doesn't fit their world view, then it's wrong. Period. End of story.

A fact free world is a damn scary place.
Quoting 201. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Can I put this in my blog of nonsense and other funny stuff? I will only do it with yoie permision.


Go ahead. :)
Quoting 198. nrtiwlnvragn:



You were in London May 8, 1945?


No, I believe I was still in Norway in 1945. I sometimes get 1945 and 1845 mixed up.

Quoting 212. Xyrus2000:



Go ahead. :)
YAY super happiness!

Hello All,

Hope everyone is well..

Looks like models are strongly hinting at some wintry precip for eastern NC between 15th and 19th..

12z Euro and 18z GFS operations and some of the Euro and GFS ensembles both hint at it..of course that will change being out in long range but hey thats weather..

One more thing, Dec 19th..our last hope!


Quoting 214. Grothar:

<
don't tell em you are gonna ruin the big surprise
Quoting 197. schwankmoe:



actually, yes i do. you 'reluctantly' sided with HRC because the polls showed she was likely to win. the fact that you're so quick to full-throatedly defend trump shows how simple and tribal your politics are. i'm absolutely sure that if, say, mccain had won in 2008 and somehow the same economic recovery we currently have had occurred you'd be shouting it from the mountaintops. i guarantee it.

you're going to defend the guy until he's undefendable. this is the same thing people did with W. and the same people who spent almost 8 years trying to sell americans on that guy (because hey, he's not a democrat amirite?), only to turn around in 2008 and say 'W? never heard of him' are trying to defend trump. same as it ever was.

his climate policy is going to be absolutely horrible.

I was all in for Scott Walker. He crashed and burned early. I was never for HRC. I wouldn't elect her dog catcher. Good luck psycho analyzing some one else.
Quoting 195. ohiofog:



There's that hard hitting "facts" they love to use..... "supposedly"
AGW "may" do this or "may" cause that. Gimme a break.
Quoting 211. Xyrus2000:



People like PD are so wrapped up in their own world of denial and dissonance there is no amount of facts or data you can provide that will convince them otherwise. It's like a religion or a cult. It doesn't matter what the subject is, either. If it doesn't fit their world view, then it's wrong. Period. End of story.

A fact free world is a damn scary place.

Good try. Nah not even!
Quoting 220. PensacolaDoug:

AGW "may" do this or "may" cause that. Gimme a break.


how long of a break do you want choices are unlimited from 1 minute to forever

lol


Keep! You wanna gimme a ride. You got the power. I've been civil however.


Several rounds of lake effect should give the usual suspects easily better than a foot across the basin, I hopefully get at least six inches of systematic snow. As usual, I'm just a few miles south and west of the real action.



NSIDC today: Sea ice hits record lows
“Average Arctic sea ice extent for November set a record low, reflecting unusually high air temperatures, winds from the south, and a warm ocean. Since October, Arctic ice extent has been more than two standard deviations lower than the long-term average. Antarctic sea ice extent quickly declined in November, also setting a record low for the month and tracking more than two standard deviations below average during the entire month. For the globe as a whole, sea ice cover was exceptionally low.”
when you need a break you can let me know but yer ok so far the comments are normal for this type of blog post tomorrow it will be about cold and snow so u will need yer coat and mittens eating a polar bar ice cream before ya get on the blog and comment tomorrow
One By One, the Flood Gates of Antarctica are Breaking Open

“We have still time to avoid the worst of it, but we have already opened a number of flood gates, one in West Antarctica, and several in Greenland.” — Dr Eric Rignot.

“This kind of rifting behavior provides another mechanism for rapid retreat of these glaciers, adding to the probability that we may see significant collapse of West Antarctica in our lifetimes.” Ian Howat, Earth Sciences associate Professor at Ohio State University.

“Burning all the world’s coal, oil and gas would melt the entire Antarctic ice-sheet and cause the oceans to rise by over 50m, a transformation unprecedented in human history. The conclusion of a new scientific study shows that, over the course of centuries, land currently inhabited by a billion people would be lost below water.” — The Guardian.


Link
Quoting 224. gr8lakebreeze:



Several rounds of lake effect should give the usual suspects easily better than a foot across the basin, I hopefully get at least six inches of systematic snow. As usual, I'm just a few miles south and west of the real action.
forecast is calling for snow for our general region Saturday night and sunday till late afternoon then back to flurries no snow total yet so that's the only scary part so I guess its safe to say nothing too a lot is expected

Sat, 10 Dec
A mix of sun and cloud. High zero.
Night
Cloudy with 30 percent chance of snow. Low minus 5.
Sun, 11 Dec
Cloudy with 70 percent chance of snow. High zero.
Night
Cloudy with 70 percent chance of flurries. Low minus 1.
Quoting 227. RobertWC:

One By One, the Flood Gates of Antarctica are Breaking Open

“We have still time to avoid the worst of it, but we have already opened a number of flood gates, one in West Antarctica, and several in Greenland.” — Dr Eric Rignot.

“This kind of rifting behavior provides another mechanism for rapid retreat of these glaciers, adding to the probability that we may see significant collapse of West Antarctica in our lifetimes.” Ian Howat, Earth Sciences associate Professor at Ohio State University.

“Burning all the world’s coal, oil and gas would melt the entire Antarctic ice-sheet and cause the oceans to rise by over 50m, a transformation unprecedented in human history. The conclusion of a new scientific study shows that, over the course of centuries, land currently inhabited by a billion people would be lost below water.” — The Guardian.


Link


Heres another example of the we "may" see....

How about a we "will" see... Make a forecast that is quantifiable. Put a date on it.
We should take the upcoming cold weather events seriously. More people die from cold weather than any other weather event in the U.S. Link

"Results and Conclusions—During 2006–2010, about 2,000 U.S. residents
died each year from weather-related causes of death. About 31% of these deaths
were attributed to exposure to excessive natural heat, heat stroke, sun stroke, or
all; 63% were attributed to exposure to excessive natural cold, hypothermia, or
both; and the remaining 6% were attributed to floods, storms, or lightning."

We really need to pay attention to these Polar air masses that are and will be affecting the U.S. Just because there are more heat records than cold records doesn't mean that Winter isn't dangerous for many people.
The majority of the U.S. still gets cold enough to kill a lot of people, especially the homeless and the elderly.



I don't like being near a rain/snow line. Freezing rain or wet snow can be the worst.
Quoting 229. PensacolaDoug:



Heres another example of the we "may" see....

How about a we "will" see... Make a forecast that is quantifiable. Put a date on it.

Just wondering, how extensive is your training in science and the scientific method?

Climate change didn't stop in 1016 either, despite NO reports.  Funny, how that works.
Nice pic of Roman Fort Ardoch (Scotland) in snow. Grothar was commanding officer (centurion) here. He was digging that bottle-brush headdress too ;)

Quoting 230. Sfloridacat5:

We should take the upcoming cold weather events seriously. More people die from cold weather than any other weather event in the U.S. Link

"Results and Conclusions—During 2006–2010, about 2,000 U.S. residents
died each year from weather-related causes of death. About 31% of these deaths
were attributed to exposure to excessive natural heat, heat stroke, sun stroke, or
all; 63% were attributed to exposure to excessive natural cold, hypothermia, or
both; and the remaining 6% were attributed to floods, storms, or lightning."

We really need to pay attention to these Polar air masses that are and will be affecting the U.S. Just because there are more heat records than cold records doesn't mean that Winter isn't dangerous for many people.
The majority of the U.S. still gets cold enough to kill a lot of people, especially the homeless and the elderly.


Absolutely...Areas further south that are not familiar to the extreme cold...During the Winter of 2015, Tennessee lost at least 20 people to winter conditions..11 of them died of hypothermia. The Cold is dangerous, ice makes it much worse..
Far out in time, but this is my vacation temp forecast. Maybe I should skip town.

Quoting 233. Hydrargyrum:

Climate change didn't stop in 1016 either, despite NO reports.  Funny, how that works.

say wut.?
Quoting 229. PensacolaDoug:



Heres another example of the we "may" see....

How about a we "will" see... Make a forecast that is quantifiable. Put a date on it.

Forecast that has and will verify
Link
Explore around the site if you have any other doubts
Quoting 220. PensacolaDoug:

AGW "may" do this or "may" cause that. Gimme a break.

Perfect knowledge isn't science. So, yes, words like "may", "could", or "might" tend to get used. Nothing in science is known to a certainty. That's how you know it's science and not philosophy or religion.
Quoting 235. hydrus:

Absolutely...Areas further south that are not familiar to the extreme cold...During the Winter of 2015, Tennessee lost at least 20 people to winter conditions..11 of them died of hypothermia. The Cold is dangerous, ice makes it much worse..


From what I can see looking daily at my weather channel app, the temperatures are nowhere near out of normal, and no where near time to panic about people's lives. It's just that it's been so warm lately that 20 degrees seems unusual. I'm in Cleveland, OH. This temperature is not unusual.

It may be different elsewhere - Northern Plains, upper New England. But here, it's just a normal cold snap, and nothing more.
Quoting 218. BaltimoreBrian:

Politico.com's take on this story:

The Weather Channel calls out Breitbart for climate change skepticism


The sooner the media delegitamizes Breitbart.com, the better. It is not a journalistic site practicing real journalism. Mostly opinions, views, and propaganda.
Quoting 229. PensacolaDoug:



Heres another example of the we "may" see....

How about a we "will" see... Make a forecast that is quantifiable. Put a date on it.

That's a bit silly, frankly. Climate projections are based on many things that might (probably will) change. Carbon emissions could plummet...or they could continue to rise...or they could remain stable. Projections under each of those scenarios would differ wildly. Now, multiply that by the number of factors affecting climate and the problem with a hard-line forecast should be obvious.

All that a model can do is project what is most likely and state under what circumstances that projection can be reasonably expected to be reasonably accurate. Even then, the error bars become quite large a few decades out even for something as simple as temperature.

Science is hard.
Quoting 207. Xandra:

From INSURGE intelligence:

Solar can already generate more energy than oil, says major scientific review

And is twice as powerful than previously thought

by Nafeez Ahmed

While the world has been going crazy, solar has quietly tipped over the edge and kicked oil and gas off the cliff of history.

A new scientific review finds that scientists are dramatically underestimating the efficiency and power of solar panels, because their data is at least seven years old.

And that’s why most of them have managed to overlook a startling fact: For every unit of energy invested, solar can now generate the same if not more energy than oil and gas.

Read more >>




The global economic consequences of an extremely rapid shift from petroleum based products to renewal sources would literally be catastrophic. Probably trillions of dollars stranded assets would be left to rot. I'm not saying it shouldn't happen, but we also need to understand economic principles that prevent something like this happening. Shareholders and governments will not allow for trillions of dollars of losses.
Quoting 235. hydrus:

Absolutely...Areas further south that are not familiar to the extreme cold...During the Winter of 2015, Tennessee lost at least 20 people to winter conditions..11 of them died of hypothermia. The Cold is dangerous, ice makes it much worse..

Yeah, but I'll bet a lot fewer people drown in winter.
245. ronnm

Climate study and AGW are not very complex but they are a bit complex.
I wonder if some peoples just lack the capacity to understand complex things. Abscribing all the recent records to El Nino is total idiocy. Yes it did present in that fashion as expected. Virtually all climatologists knew a big El NIno would produce that effect.

Here is a clue for those who cannot understand things.
I am presto chango Karnack the magnificent, the reader of all future things. The coming La Nina year will be hotter than the last La NIna year following a big El Nino. And the next El Nino of a similiar scope to this one, will be hotter than this one.
I know all this because I can read the future. Not because there is a thing called AGW.
Quoting 243. Krycek1984:



The global economic consequences of an extremely rapid shift from petroleum based products to renewal sources would literally be catastrophic. Probably trillions of dollars stranded assets would be left to rot. I'm not saying it shouldn't happen, but we also need to understand economic principles that prevent something like this happening. Shareholders and governments will not allow for trillions of dollars of losses.

Um, wouldn't stocks in renewables and support industries rise precipitously?
Quoting 245. ronnm:


Climate study and AGW are not very complex but they are a bit complex.
I wonder if some peoples just lack the capacity to understand complex things. Abscribing all the recent records to El Nino is total idiocy. Yes it did present in that fashion as expected. Virtually all climatologists knew a big El NIno would produce that effect.

Here is a clue for those who cannot understand things.
I am presto chango Karnack the magnificent, the reader of all future things. The coming La Nina year will be hotter than the last La NIna year following a big El Nino. And the next El Nino of a similiar scope to this one, will be hotter than this one.
I know all this because I can read the future. Not because there is a thing called AGW.

Quoting 229. PensacolaDoug:



Heres another example of the we "may" see....

How about a we "will" see... Make a forecast that is quantifiable. Put a date on it.


Welcome to the world of nonlinear dynamics. To make it brutal easy, here is an example of it. I can make the prediction that you will die with 100% certainty, but even with the best data about your life I could only make predictions about the how and when with a probability.

It is totally clear that an increase in CO2 will lead to a warming of the troposphere, but other changes can only be predicted with a probability also, a may is totally warranted. There is a certain uncertainty in predicting the behavior of nonlinear dynamical systems like the atmosphere, you have to live with it.

Quoting 244. Misanthroptimist:


Yeah, but I'll bet a lot fewer people drown in winter.


Nice sarcasm. Except all of those who break through the ice and drown. Which by the way is a lot
250. ronnm
Nice graph about says it all in 247. But can some people not read graphs is what I am wondering at the point in time.

So what's a mother to do. Send some idiots to graph reading school. Wasen't that in grammer school? So back to grammer school with those dolts?
Quoting 249. nymore:



Nice sarcasm. Except all of those who break through the ice and drown. Which by the way is a lot

Difference between zero and {fewer than in summer} > 0

No points awarded.
Quoting 251. Misanthroptimist:


Difference between zero and {fewer than in summer} > 0

No points awarded.

Number of users in summer vs number of users in winter vs number of deaths from drowning. Now this is for waters that freeze. You know apples to apples

The number is probably still on your side but closer than you think
Average Arctic sea ice extent for November set a record low, reflecting unusually high air temperatures, winds from the south, and a warm ocean. Since October, Arctic ice extent has been more than two standard deviations lower than the long-term average. Antarctic sea ice extent quickly declined in November, also setting a record low for the month and tracking more than two standard deviations below average during the entire month. For the globe as a whole, sea ice cover was exceptionally low.

http://assets.climatecentral.org/images/made/12_6 _16_Andrea_CC_seaicechart_1050_840_s_c1_c_c.jpg


Also- since there's a popular cartoonist out there posing as a genius and making specious claims , this rebuttal is handy

http://variable-variability.blogspot.com/2016/12/ scott-adams-non-expert-problem-climate-change.html
Quoting 252. nymore:


Number of users in summer vs number of users in winter vs number of deaths from drowning. Now this is for waters that freeze. You know apples to apples

The number is probably still on your side but closer than you think


Doubtful
Ultimately we are not talking about a scientific problem. We are talking about a practical problem.

We should think in terms of risk and inevitability. The effects of CO2 pollution are inevitable. The risks are undeniable--though one might choose to ignore them. Even if I were to not care about what happened last year temperature-wise, I would still not ignore the risks.

The costs of ignoring what will inevitably happen because of our inaction are staggering.
256. ronnm
Regarding 253. By my take the unknown until recently part of this whole sea ice thing in the arctic is the consequence of that upon the polar jet. It appears significantly weakening in force and thus meandering all over the place. This leading to really unusual cold weather in spots and unusually hot winter weather in other spots(most noteable the arctic). Which leads to ammo for the denialists in their simple way of looking at things. See its cold we are setting records on the cold side. AGW is nonsense.
But of course the records up and down are all now globally tilting hot, averages considered. Far more hot records set than cold.
Quoting 254. Misanthroptimist:


Doubtful

Has nothing to do with the question asked. I am not sure any study has ever been done
Quoting 248. ChrisHamburg:



Welcome to the world of nonlinear dynamics. To make it brutal easy, here is an example of it. I can make the prediction that you will die with 100% certainty, but even with the best data about your life I could only make predictions about the how and when with a probability.

It is totally clear that an increase in CO2 will lead to a warming of the troposphere, but other changes can only be predicted with a probability also, a may is totally warranted. There is a certain uncertainty in predicting the behavior of nonlinear dynamical systems like the atmosphere, you have to live with it.




Never really comment, but thank you for this. Too many people are under the illusion that we should be able to forecast weather as well as we can forecast lunar cycles.
Quoting 243. Krycek1984:



The global economic consequences of an extremely rapid shift from petroleum based products to renewal sources would literally be catastrophic. Probably trillions of dollars stranded assets would be left to rot. I'm not saying it shouldn't happen, but we also need to understand economic principles that prevent something like this happening. Shareholders and governments will not allow for trillions of dollars of losses.


Whose loss? Oil shareholders? Energy is private market (with a handful of exceptions) where risk has it rewards. Society needs to say "oil is too risky- move on"
Quoting 244. Misanthroptimist:


Yeah, but I'll bet a lot fewer people drown in winter.
The ones that drown walk on the ice...they fall through....the current pulls them under..or no one is around...happens too much i say....Link
Quoting 257. nymore:


Has nothing to do with the question asked. I am not sure any study has ever been done

Do you seriously think that the number of people that broke through the ice and drowned is anywhere near the number listed in the CDC spreadsheet? Ridiculous, if so.
My understanding of El Nino is incomplete; here is the way I see it.

In an El Nino year the trade winds weaken and warm water in the East Pac thus stays in the East Pac. In a La Nina year, that warm water is instead transported westward by vigorous trade winds. But either way, no new heat is generated or made available to the climate system. Rather, it is a matter of where on the globe that heat reserve resides, Indonesia or Mexico.

Global climate-wise, it seems a wash. What am I missing?
Quoting 260. hydrus:

The ones that drown walk on the ice...they fall through....the current pulls them under..or no one is around...happens too much i say....Link
once in the water at near freezing levels you have not much time anyway cause if ya don't drown in a panic u will when your body goes to sleep and u just slip away quietly into the night
Quoting 261. Misanthroptimist:


Do you seriously think that the number of people that broke through the ice and drowned is anywhere near the number listed in the CDC spreadsheet? Ridiculous, if so.

I have no way to break it down, do you. Please answer the direct question asked with a break down
Quoting 214. Grothar:



at :58, in reference to the loss of ice cover over Arctic ocean.. The ice in the dark of winter acts to maintain Ocean cureent warmth by it's strong insulating properties. Ice icaps only have a cooling effect over Ocean in the summer when the direct rays of the sun are reflected... however the ice is still acting as an insulator to the warm currents beneath it.

Get your own valid XHTML YouTube embed code

:58 (reference to loss of reflective ice cover over Arctic Ocean)... ice cover over oceans "caps" the warmer water beneath, preventing evaporational cooling and transfer of the heat to the atmosphere and space as well. Ice is a very efficient insulator.. Thus in winter, with no solar rays to reflect in the 24/7 darkness, the net effect is warming with an intact ice cap.
266. ronnm
262 I think it may be that more heat from water is displaced into more heat in a atmospheric sense. It is true the earth is warming gradually. So it does not differ very significantly from year to year just gradually going up. But in El Nino years more of the heat is apparent to us as more is in the form of atmospheric heat, This is what we measure generally in our record books, atmospheric heat.

So El Nino years present with more heat apparent in the atmosphere as opposed to in the ocean. So we set atmospheric records for high heat in El Nino years. The change apparent is due to the form we find the heat more atmosphere or ocean. Very generally. Globally this presents. Some slect areas are cooler in El Nino years but globally the trend is up.
.The oceans serve as heat sinks or collectors. Very minor changes in parts of this heat to atmosphere due to ocean flow movement change, can result in rather larger results in atmospheric temperatures.
El Nino is basically describing a flow change. That flow change causes more heat released into the atmosphere than in non el nino years.
Quoting 263. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

once in the water at near freezing levels you have not much time anyway cause if ya don't drown in a panic u will when your body goes to sleep and u just slip away quietly into the night
We were whacked regularly on the Great Lakes with the ice cold waves...Especially when making the switch from tow to push...3 and a half hours of freezing cold hell..
Quoting 265. colty77:



The ice acts as a strong insulator to the warm ocean currents beneath it, so that in the dark winter months, ice over the Arctic has a strong net warming effect. It does have a cooling effect in the summer months when the sun is above the horizon, but it also acts as an insulator then as well, so the net effect even then is not a significant as has been stated.
Quoting 264. nymore:


I have no way to break it down, do you. Please answer the direct question asked with a break down

In point of fact, you asked no question, so you set me an impossible task.
Quoting 260. hydrus:

The ones that drown walk on the ice...they fall through....the current pulls them under..or no one is around...happens too much i say....Link

See post #251 above.
279. ronnm
I wanted to commend Henson and Masters for commenting on this misinformation.

It is about time someone goes on the offensive with these loons. Kudos to Henson and Masters and the weather channel, for being those someones. Lets hope more follow their lead. It's time to step up and be counted.
Quoting 277. Misanthroptimist:


In point of fact, you asked no question, so you set me an impossible task.

Sorry I missed a question mark. If that is all you have left well have a good night
Quoting 278. Misanthroptimist:


See post #251 above.
I dunno...I was talkin about cold weather and the dangerous aspects of it. Now i am mixed up..I have had a tihs day...Hope tomorrow is better...
Quoting 241. Krycek1984:



The sooner the media delegitamizes Breitbart.com, the better. It is not a journalistic site practicing real journalism. Mostly opinions, views, and propaganda.

Breitbart has long been delegitimized. Thing is, the alt right doesn't care. They distort the facts, Breitbart distorts the facts--it's a match made in heaven. All the other organizations that do a better job of accurate reporting then get labeled as leftist propaganda. Voila, echo chamber.
Quoting 232. kestrel68:


Just wondering, how extensive is your training in science and the scientific method?




He has none. But if recent events has shown us anything, it's that facts don't matter.
Quoting 194. DeepSeaRising:

NO way AGW doesn't steal the show in the coming years. It's an issue that's too large for most to grasp. Knowing that, we're in trouble. People don't learn on a how it positively affects my neighbor level any more. It's me based mixed with individual morality thinking. We're know little, love self much culture think. People just aren't tuned in to what really matters. This is a long game think. Ignoring it will ensure disaster.



Oh, I really hope so. I get this feeling we'll be distracted by tweets irrelevant to reality. November has been a big letdown. I was hoping that Trump would at least follow through with tariffs but seems less and less likely every day as the swamp was filled with gators instead of drained.
Quoting 282. TropicalAnalystwx13:


Breitbart has long been delegitimized. Thing is, the alt right doesn't care. They distort the facts, Breitbart distorts the facts--it's a match made in heaven. All the other organizations that do a better job of accurate reporting then get labeled as leftist propaganda. Voila, echo chamber.


The alt-right has even accused Faux Nuuz of a liberal bias on occasion. That's pretty far out on the crazy scale.
Quoting 158. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wait. We're supposed to be glad that Trump negotiated deals with companies to keep their jobs here in exchange for millions of dollars in tax cuts? Millions of dollars that could have gone to improving our infrastructure, education, etc? As Sarah Palin said, "That's crony capitalism. Republicans oppose this, remember?"

When Sarah Palin has become a voice of reason, we've reached peak 2016 and should just stop.
Fact and truth-based comments like that from you people in the the younger generation make me think that there might yet be hope for the future.
Quoting 284. Snacker2:



Oh, I really hope so. I get this feeling we'll be distracted by tweets irrelevant to reality. November has been a big letdown. I was hoping that Trump would at least follow through with tariffs but seems less and less likely every day as the swamp was filled with gators instead of drained.


You don't want him to follow through on the tariffs. You really don't. Do some research on tariffs and their impacts.

To illustrate, ask yourself this question: Who benefits the most from a class action lawsuit?
289. ronnm
Regarding 288 tariffs have a long and storied history in the US. But all that is mentioned is the event of the great depression and all that, protectionism.

What is left out is about 150 years of tariffs. And facts such that the government, one may ask how did it function without income taxation for many many years? Well it was from largly tariff revenue that funded it.
From Wikipedia
"The 1st United States Congress, wanting a straightforward tax that was not too onerous and easy to collect, passed the Tariff Act of 1789. Treasury agents collected the tariff before goods could be landed, and what became the Coast Guard prevented smuggling. Tariffs were the largest (approaching 95% at times) source of federal revenue until the Federal income tax began after 1913. For well over a century the federal government was largely financed by tariffs averaging about 20% on foreign imports. "

It is simple protection of industry. I am no person in favor of Trump by any means. But that tariffs are bad is a thing used universally by corporation in the interest of corporatism. It is a fact they are bad in trade wars. But to protect industry, not a bit.

WE in fact have a tariff now on imported Chinese steel brought into fact by Obama. Why? as their nation was undercutting others by unfair advantage of government subsidy. It would have been idiocy not to respond.
A headline from May on CNBC
"U.S. hikes duties on Chinese steel to more than 500%
by Charles Riley @CRrileyCNN
May 18, 2016: 9:38 AM ET

The EU raised theirs by 13%. No offense but I repeat what I always state, they lie to us. As they lie about AGW they lie about other things as well. Didn't know we had in effect a tariff on chinese steel did you?
Most do not. It is not that it is not reported but like AGw science, it is underreported. With intention. Corporatism is global with international companies who run the show not nationalistic.
00
Quoting 286. Xulonn:

Fact and truth-based comments like that from you people in the the younger generation make me think that there might yet be hope for the future.


Hope is in the rear view mirror. We've just passed Crony Capitalism where we grabbed a quick bite to eat. No further stops on this road until we get to Fascism. :P

(Half) kidding aside, this is why I constantly stress critical thinking skills to my son. I taught him long ago to be skeptical of extraordinary claims without extraordinary evidence, even if the claims agree with what he thinks is right. It's led to some pretty interesting conversations. :)
I've never been more proud of the blog than today.

Reason, combined with action and a vision, will win the day.

Our collective future rides on the edge of a razor.

Lean forward, and steel oneself.

The journey has just begun.

Everyone matters.

My love is in league with the freeway
Its passion will ride, as the cities fly by
And the tail-lights dissolve, in the coming of night
And the questions in thousands take flight
My love is a-miles in the waiting
The eyes that just stare, and the glance at the clock
And the secret that burns, and the pain that grows dark
And it's you once again
Leading me on - leading me down the road
Driving beyond - driving me down the road

My love is exceedingly vivid
Red-eyed and fevered with the hum of the miles
Distance and longing, my thoughts do provide
Should I rest for a while at the side
Your love is cradled in knowing
Eyes in the mirror, still expecting they'll come
Sensing too well when the journey is done
There is no turning back - no
There is no turning back - on the run

My love is in league with the freeway
Oh the freeway, and the coming of night-time
My love is in league with the freeway










My love is in league with the freeway
Its passion will ride, as the cities fly by
And the tail-lights dissolve, in the coming of night
And the questions in thousands take flight
My love is a-miles in the waiting
The eyes that just stare, and the glance at the clock
And the secret that burns, and the pain that grows dark
And it's you once again
Leading me on - leading me down the road
Driving beyond - driving me down the road

My love is exceedingly vivid
Red-eyed and fevered with the hum of the miles
Distance and longing, my thoughts do provide
Should I rest for a while at the side
Your love is cradled in knowing
Eyes in the mirror, still expecting they'll come
Sensing too well when the journey is done
There is no turning back - no
There is no turning back - on the run

My love is in league with the freeway
Oh the freeway, and the coming of night-time
My love is in league with the freeway







Quoting 290. Xyrus2000:



Hope is in the rear view mirror. We've just passed Crony Capitalism where we grabbed a quick bite to eat. No further stops on this road until we get to Fascism. :P

(Half) kidding aside, this is why I constantly stress critical thinking skills to my son. I taught him long ago to be skeptical of extraordinary claims without extraordinary evidence, even if the claims agree with what he thinks is right. It's lead to some pretty interesting conversations. :)


More Dads/parents/role models like this would make the world a much better place. For some people only had school- I wish philosophy was taught early in high school and not as an elective in college.
Um, why is the entire board in italics, lol?
Quoting 287. bappit:

Texas is the Best. And Worst. #1 in both Wind Energy and Carbon Pollution.


I guess you can have your cake and eat it to. :P
Quoting 292. CraigsIsland:



More Dads/parents/role models like this would make the world a much better place. For some people only had school- I wish philosophy was taught early in high school and not as an elective in college.


People don't like to critically examine what they think is right. To challenge one's own world view can both be eye opening and terrifying. It's the tree of knowledge. Eating of it won't kill you physically, but it may destroy the person you once were.
Quoting 292. CraigsIsland:



More Dads/parents/role models like this would make the world a much better place. For some people only had school- I wish philosophy was taught early in high school and not as an elective in college.


This comment intrigued me out of lurking. Does anyone here had philosophy in their curriculum? I had a brief lesson while I was in Med school. The first and only time I came across philosophy. I found it to be incredibly fascinating, especially in applying scientific methods. Its thought provoking and challenges your perspective on many things. It should be taught along with basic science.
297. EvPv
I understand why, but am disappointed you commented on Breitbart story. In some ways, answering them adds a warped sense of credibility to their website as a news source.
I somewhat guess that a large majority of readers to this blog would take a Breitbart story seriously....or even go to the website.
Quoting 223. PensacolaDoug:

Keep! You wanna gimme a ride. You got the power. I've been civil however.

Climate revisionism is not 'civil', but criminal.
British Antarctic research station to be moved due to deep crack in the ice

Dormant chasm has opened up and risks cutting the station off from the rest of the ice shelf

Britain is preparing to move its research station in the Antarctic 23km further inland because it is under threat from a growing crack in the ice.

The British Antarctic Survey’s Halley VI research station has recorded data relevant to space weather, climate change, and atmospheric phenomena from its site on the Brunt Ice Shelf shelf since 2012.


Link
Trump Fires Adviser’s Son From Transition for Spreading Fake News

WASHINGTON — President-elect Donald J. Trump on Tuesday fired one of his transition team’s staff members, Michael G. Flynn, the son of Mr. Trump’s choice for national security adviser, for using Twitter to spread a fake news story about Hillary Clinton that led to an armed confrontation in a pizza restaurant in Washington.

Link
Polar bear numbers to plunge a third as sea ice melts: study

Polar bear numbers could drop a third by mid-century, according to the first systematic assessment, released on Wednesday, of how dwindling Arctic sea ice affects the world's largest bear.

There is a 70 percent chance that the global polar bear population –- estimated at 26,000 -– will decline by more than 30 percent over the next 35 years, a period corresponding to three generations, the study found.
Other assessments have reached similar conclusions, notably a recent review by the International Union for the Conservation of Nature (IUCN), which tracks endangered species on its Red List.
The IUCN classified the sea-faring polar bear—a.k.a. Ursus maritimus—as "vulnerable", or at high risk of extinction in the wild.



Read more at: Link
Climate change threatens ability of insurers to manage risk
Extreme weather is driving up uninsured losses and insurers must use investments to fund global warming resilience, says study
The Guardian, Wednesday 7 December 2016 06.00 GMT
Predicting unpredictability: Information theory offers new way to read ice cores

At two miles long and five inches in diameter, the West Antarctic Ice Sheet Divide (WAIS) ice core is a tangible record of the last 68,000 years of our planet's climate.

Completed in 2011, the core is packed with information, but it's also packed with noise and error, making the climate story hard to read. Figuring out whether blips in the data are evidence of humans spewing carbon into the atmosphere, odd North Atlantic weather events, or equipment malfunctions often challenges the scientists trying to read the ice cylinder's story.
Drawing from information theory, a research team led by Santa Fe Institute Omidyar Fellow Joshua Garland has proposed new, more sophisticated techniques that promise to make ongoing interpretation of the WAIS core easier and extract new kinds of data that could change the way we think about Earth's climate.



Read more at: Link
Climate change threatens ability of insurers to manage risk

The ability of the global insurance industry to manage society’s risks is being threatened by climate change, according to a new report.

The report finds that more frequent extreme weather events are driving up uninsured losses and making some assets uninsurable.

The analysis, by a coalition of the world’s biggest insurers, concluded that the “protection gap” – the difference between the costs of natural disasters and the amount insured – has quadrupled to $100bn (£79bn) a year since the 1980s.


Link
Quoting 211. Xyrus2000:



People like PD are so wrapped up in their own world of denial and dissonance there is no amount of facts or data you can provide that will convince them otherwise. It's like a religion or a cult. It doesn't matter what the subject is, either. If it doesn't fit their world view, then it's wrong. Period. End of story.

A fact free world is a damn scary place.
i have an explanation of why its hard to convince people climate change is i big deal, its like this, a large amount of people are over weight and don't exercise, even though we are all told this will affect our health in a bad way. most people don't care till something bad occurs...heart attack or the like and only then do they get it. same with the climate, until something real bad happens, most people don't care.
Quoting 279. ronnm:

I wanted to commend Henson and Masters for commenting on this misinformation.

It is about time someone goes on the offensive with these loons. Kudos to Henson and Masters and the weather channel, for being those someones. Lets hope more follow their lead. It's time to step up and be counted.
Now it's time to bring more forecasting shows.
307. MahFL
Quoting 301. RobertWC:

Polar bear numbers to plunge a third as sea ice melts: study...


The problem with these studies is :
A: There is a 70% chance, which people automatically equate to 100%.
B: Mid century is 34 years away, we have no idea what might happen in that kind of time frame.
C: Another study will say there is no future problem with Polar Bear numbers.
308. MahFL
Quoting 300. RobertWC:

Trump Fires Adviser’s Son From Transition for Spreading Fake News


Scary we have these type of people trying to form a US Government.
309. MahFL
Three shots of precip on tap for Northern CA :

Quoting 302. barbamz:

Climate change threatens ability of insurers to manage risk
Extreme weather is driving up uninsured losses and insurers must use investments to fund global warming resilience, says study
The Guardian, Wednesday 7 December 2016 06.00 GMT


Insurers & reinsurers are in the business of managing risk & making a profit. If they don't make a profit they eventually cease being in business and cease managing risk. Most of us have some form of insurance, life, health, auto, homeowners, etc. Corporations as well. The insurers do not act out of political agendas. Their very existence as going concerns depend on accurate, cold analytical assessments of future risks. When they express concerns or choose to cease coverage, they're sending a message we should all listen to. They may not necessarily take a specific stance on all the factors involved in climate change, but they will take a stance on coverage for areas too risky under an earth becoming warmer with more incidents of extreme variability. New development, commerce, & other activities may not proceed without someone to agree to cover risk. Where they set the red line is a harbinger of things to come.
its that time of the yr for central florida it can get really cold. not this yr about average
matthew and donna ( sixties) were about the same strength. can you imagine the damage if matthew came up the spine of florida like donna. we'd still be waiting for the power to turn on. insure that?
Cough, cough. CO2 is invisible, but visible air pollution in winter shows what we're (still) emitting every day into our atmosphere.



Smog and Haze in Northern China
NASA Earth Observatory, December 7, 2016

Ongoing:
Paris is suffering under the 'dirtiest air in a decade'
The Local (France), 7 December 2016, 11:13 CET 01:00
The winter pollution spike in Paris has been judged the worst in a decade as authorities continue to impose traffic restrictions on vehicles and make public transport free in a bid to tackle the dirty air above the city.
Paris and its surrounding towns are suffering their worst and most prolonged winter pollution for at least ten years, the Airparif agency which measures air quality said on Wednesday.
The peak is due to the combination of emissions from vehicles and from domestic wood-fires as well as near windless conditions which means pollutants have not been dispersed, the agency said. ...


In pictures: Paris winter air pollution is worst in 10 years
France 24, 2016-12-07

Current threat of air pollution in central Germany:
Uhh, my town Mainz in Rhine valley with the worst purple color as well (and yes, it's a foggy grey outside: webcam).


Mainz cathedral right now adjacent to my place.

London mayor to double funding to tackle air pollution
Guardian, Wednesday 7 December 2016 09.00 GMT

"Unbreathable air" due to smog in many cities in Italy as well (in Italian)
Mercoledi 07 dicembre 2016

Delhi on fog alert, air pollution to rise
6 December 2016 01:53 PM
Quoting 229. PensacolaDoug:



Heres another example of the we "may" see....

How about a we "will" see... Make a forecast that is quantifiable. Put a date on it.

7th of December 2036: all coral dead.
Quoting 230. Sfloridacat5:

We should take the upcoming cold weather events seriously. More people die from cold weather than any other weather event in the U.S. Link

"Results and Conclusions%u2014During 2006%u20132010, about 2,000 U.S. residents
died each year from weather-related causes of death. About 31% of these deaths
were attributed to exposure to excessive natural heat, heat stroke, sun stroke, or
all; 63% were attributed to exposure to excessive natural cold, hypothermia, or
both; and the remaining 6% were attributed to floods, storms, or lightning."

We really need to pay attention to these Polar air masses that are and will be affecting the U.S. Just because there are more heat records than cold records doesn't mean that Winter isn't dangerous for many people.
The majority of the U.S. still gets cold enough to kill a lot of people, especially the homeless and the elderly.



The Silent Killer, heat, estimates are known to be too low. Factor 100 abouts. Most heat deaths get different attributions e.g. stroke or heart failure and are not counted.
Fifth largest 'natural' disaster of 2006, heatwave Holland (three weeks), est. 5,000 dead (probably double, however).
A strong undersea earthquake rocked Indonesia's Aceh province early on Wednesday, killing at least 97 people and causing dozens of buildings to collapse.

The Latest on a magnitude 6.5 earthquake in Indonesia's Aceh province (all times local):

7:25 p.m.

The Indonesian Red Cross says it's mobilizing aid for earthquake survivors from Aceh's provincial capital, Banda Aceh, and the Indonesian capital, Jakarta, with an initial priority on clean water and sanitation.

The charity's head of disaster management, Arifin Hadi, says five water trucks have already been sent into areas worst hit by the quake, where it has 100 people on the ground. It has dispatched other aid from Banda Aceh such as hygiene kits, tarpaulins and jerry cans and has also sent body bags.

Arifin says it will send more from its Jakarta warehouse, including 500 family assistance kits, 1,000 blankets and 1,000 tarpaulins.

He says possible health risks in the quake area are still being assessed.

5 p.m.

The director of the hospital in Pidie Jaya, the district that has taken the brunt of the quake damage, says the facility is overwhelmed with the numbers of injured.

Muhammad Reza Faisal says many people are being treated in tents pitched on the grounds of the hospital, which was damaged in Wednesday's shallow magnitude 6.5 quake.

He says five of the quake victims died at the hospital. The total death has risen to 97.

Faisal says: "We are cooperating with the local army and police who lent us stretchers for the victims."

The national disaster mitigation agency says several hundred people have been injured.
Good morning all, big changes in store medium term, the polar vortex looks to be visiting us here in the great white north. Rather than spamming this post with all sorts of maps and thoughts I've posted a blog to discuss and examine the event in detail. I hope others will stop by to offer some thoughts on its development.

Polar Vortex to visit central Canada
The Nsa, cia and all branches of the military acknowledge the existence of man made global warming.
Insurance companies, oil companies are all making plans on how they are going to deal with it.
Buildings here in lower Manhattan that got damaged due to Sandy, are all modifying their buildings, putting up removable barriers between posts, etc.. The new pier 17 will have giant movable walls to seal the building.. If this was short term event , they'd use sandbags.. Instead they are preparing for the inevitable flooding that will regularly occur when sea levels really start taking off
So, not to change the subject, but is anybody else noticing what's happening in the Bay of Bengal? I don't know which model it uses, but this site

https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surfac e/level/orthographic=84.82,10.11,3000/loc=-63.572, 44.642

has it developing into a pretty significant cyclone in the next few days, making landfall on India's east coast on the 11th at almost hurricane strength. It's over 29C water, is in a pocket of nice moist air, and seems to have an enormous area of well organized circulation.

Thoughts?
Good Morning Folks. As noted in post 319 below, some of the most innovative work related to AGW issues is not going to come from the Government but from private industries selling mitigation products, and infrastructure related improvements, back to the government, private industry, and regular folks. I am seriously considering a business plan for a company along the lines of Global Warming Solutions to have on staff-consultants and engineers provide consulting along these lines. Tons of companies as noted below know there is money to be made in a warming world and are already out there ahead of the curve.................In fact, I might be too late already with my concept based on some of the global companies popping up in the private sector and proactive government action/funding in places like China and the Netherlands.
Quoting 316. cRRKampen:


The Silent Killer, heat, estimates are known to be too low. Factor 100 abouts. Most heat deaths get different attributions e.g. stroke or heart failure and are not counted.
Fifth largest 'natural' disaster of 2006, heatwave Holland (three weeks), est. 5,000 dead (probably double, however).


Yes, there has been many bad "heat waves" across the World.
But scientific studies are pretty firm that cold weather kills more people than hot weather.

Here's another recent study looking at the World and a very large control group.

"Cold weather kills far more people than hot weather
Date:
May 20, 2015
Source:
The Lancet
Summary:
Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting from extreme heat waves or cold spells."

Link
On the Conus weather front, here are the charts and maps: chilly, chilly, chilly and lots of snow around over the next several days:






Here is the example of the Dutch governmental program; no surprise that sea level rise is a huge issue for them:

https://www.government.nl/topics/climate-change/c ontents/national-measures


Delta Program

The Netherlands needs to prepare for the consequences of climate change, and specifically the water-related consequences such as the rising sea level and increasing rainfall. Plans for the future are and should be made. These plans are included in the Delta Program. 

The Delta Program is a national program in which the government, provinces, water boards and municipalities work together. Social organizations, businesses and organizations with extensive knowledge in the field of water are involved as well. The main objectives of the Delta program are to protect the Netherlands, now and in the future, from flooding and to ensure sufficient freshwater. 

Quoting 229. PensacolaDoug:



Heres another example of the we "may" see....

How about a we "will" see... Make a forecast that is quantifiable. Put a date on it.


Anyone who provides a precise prediction of the future without acknowledging uncertainty IS WRONG. Always.
And either they know they're wrong, so they're lying to you, or they don't know they're wrong, in which case they're fools. Don't encourage the fools.
Quoting 322. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, there has been many bad "heat waves" across the World.
But scientific studies are pretty firm that cold weather kills more people than hot weather.

Here's another recent study looking at the World and a very large control group.

"Cold weather kills far more people than hot weather
Date:
May 20, 2015
Source:
The Lancet
Summary:
Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting from extreme heat waves or cold spells."

Link

I'm aware of such studies and like I said: they are flawed.
Which is why such a study will not be able to provide an explanation for the fact that summer 2003 had the morgues in France stuffed from cellar to ceiling and they had to empty a number of diary storages to place the rest of those excess deaths.
Most of which were, of course, attributed to stroke or heart failure, not heat. But that message was so damned clear the French parliament held an investigation and airco in certain buildings (esp. those housing seniors) was made mandatory.
This killer is Silent. Let it be known.

The article you cite was discussed by 'Tamino': Link
Quoting 322. Sfloridacat5:



Yes, there has been many bad "heat waves" across the World.
But scientific studies are pretty firm that cold weather kills more people than hot weather.

Here's another recent study looking at the World and a very large control group.

"Cold weather kills far more people than hot weather
Date:
May 20, 2015
Source:
The Lancet
Summary:
Cold weather kills 20 times as many people as hot weather, according to an international study analyzing over 74 million deaths in 384 locations across 13 countries. The findings also reveal that deaths due to moderately hot or cold weather substantially exceed those resulting from extreme heat waves or cold spells."

Link

Comparisons such as these are a waste of time since the largest problems with warming isn't people dying from the heat. Crop failure is probably the biggest threat overall, though flooding is probably more of a threat short-term -at least in terms of fatalities.

But, yeah, an ice age would be bad, too. Fortunately(?), the next ice age has been cancelled due to CO2.
Quoting 305. Tampa969mlb:

i have an explanation of why its hard to convince people climate change is i big deal, its like this, a large amount of people are over weight and don't exercise, even though we are all told this will affect our health in a bad way. most people don't care till something bad occurs...heart attack or the like and only then do they get it. same with the climate, until something real bad happens, most people don't care.


Probably the smartest thing you've ever written. Fairly good analogy, except:

When we are fat, our fat does not attach to others. When we die, we take our fat with us. I can not MAKE you become fat, by being fat myself. My fat actions do not affect future generations.

But yes, I can be fat, and ignore it. I can say I am happy eating fast food. Being fat is selfish- a personal choice. But global warming affects ALL of us.
Quoting 324. weathermanwannabe:

Here is the example of the Dutch governmental program; no surprise that sea level rise is a huge issue for them:

https://www.government.nl/topics/climate-change/c ontents/national-measures


Delta Program

The Netherlands needs to prepare for the consequences of climate change, and specifically the water-related consequences such as the rising sea level and increasing rainfall. Plans for the future are and should be made. These plans are included in the Delta Program. 

The Delta Program is a national program in which the government, provinces, water boards and municipalities work together. Social organizations, businesses and organizations with extensive knowledge in the field of water are involved as well. The main objectives of the Delta program are to protect the Netherlands, now and in the future, from flooding and to ensure sufficient freshwater. 


Doing really well our Delta Comission are.
But we'll hold out the sea for time to come.
Problem is at some point probably soon we can't get rid of the rivers anymore. Therein lies the true, and acute threat to our country. The Commission is very aware of this, too.
Quoting 327. Misanthroptimist:


Comparisons such as these are a waste of time since the largest problems with warming isn't people dying from the heat. Crop failure is probably the biggest threat overall, though flooding is probably more of a threat short-term -at least in terms of fatalities.

But, yeah, an ice age would be bad, too. Fortunately(?), the next ice age has been cancelled due to CO2.


Throw in a resource war or two and it looks even worse. And of course deaths in a resource war won't be attributed to AGW.
329. cRRKampen
9:25 AM EST on December 07, 2016

Great point; I was in the Netherlands in the late 1990's and was amazed at the number of rivers and canals surrounding towns and villages that we saw on the train ride from Antwerp to Amsterdam (and very impressed with the sea wall structure around the port in Antwerp).
Ghost of Otto?





MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC

GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 07.12.2016

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T 120 : 11.3N 82.5W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 12.12.2016 120 11.3N 82.5W 1006 29
1200UTC 12.12.2016 132 13.3N 85.1W 1006 27
0000UTC 13.12.2016 144 16.2N 94.2W 1008 26



GFS2017


333. elioe
Quoting 326. cRRKampen:


I'm aware of such studies and like I said: they are flawed.
Which is why such a study will not be able to provide an explanation for the fact that summer 2003 had the morgues in France stuffed from cellar to ceiling and they had to empty a number of diary storages to place the rest of those excess deaths.
Most of which were, of course, attributed to stroke or heart failure, not heat. But that message was so damned clear the French parliament held an investigation and airco in certain buildings (esp. those housing seniors) was made mandatory.
This killer is Silent. Let it be known.

The article you cite was discussed by 'Tamino': Link


"The science is flawed. Because, well, my personal observations and opinions are to the contrary. I'll link to a dubious blog."

... wait, have we seen this thinking before?
Quoting 253. TroubleWithTriffids:


from the Scott Adams (non-expert) article,
While political nonsense can be made to look credible, the truth is often complicated and sometimes difficult to convey. There is a big difference between qualified critique and uninformed nonsense. Valuing the strength of the evidence is part of the scientific culture. My critique of the quality of climate data is part of that. There are also real scientific problems in understanding changes of clouds, as well as the land and vegetation. These are important for how much the Earth will respond. Although the largest source of uncertainty is how much we will do to stop the problem.
Quoting 331. weathermanwannabe:

329. cRRKampen
9:25 AM EST on December 07, 2016

Great point; I was in the Netherlands in the late 1990's and was amazed at the number of rivers and canals surrounding towns and villages that we saw on the train ride from Antwerp to Amsterdam (and very impressed with the sea wall structure around the port in Antwerp).

Like a pool table in two meanings ;) Special place eh?
Quoting 333. elioe:



"The science is flawed. Because, well, my personal observations and opinions are to the contrary. I'll link to a dubious blog."

... wait, have we seen this thinking before?

So you just take words at face value and dismiss them as 'have heard this before somewhere' - instead of checking e.g. with the statistician prof? Better beware mate. My words have meaning. Checkable, verifiable meaning.
337. OKsky
Quoting 297. EvPv:

I understand why, but am disappointed you commented on Breitbart story. In some ways, answering them adds a warped sense of credibility to their website as a news source.
I somewhat guess that a large majority of readers to this blog would take a Breitbart story seriously....or even go to the website.


I 100% feel the point you are making, but I think now its time to face the fact that this kind of crap is completely mainstream. As absurd as it sounds, both Breitbart and Infowars have ears in the whitehouse now.
Quoting 335. cRRKampen:


Like a pool table in two meanings ;) Special place eh?


I will never forget the windmills in the fields and the "rainbow colored" rows of Tulips all the way to the horizon that I saw on the ride; and the Trappist beer and chocolates were not bad either...............................
We elected a man to break the system, what we got is a man who has manipulated the system and knows the system as well as anyone. It is clear Trump is not going to break the political norm, he will use the system to further the agenda of the very few. He is fighting for policy that will adversely affect the average person. We are in a war and the truth is the prize. If we slash common sense regulations for more profit now; the price tag in the future will be very high. The truth is an absolute, we have entered dangerous territory when truth gets redefined by agenda driven politicians who are not in the least looking out for us. We need unity, we need to unite and organize far better. We need a national movement that has far more momentum than the current one. AGW is not currently a passionate topic with the vast majority of Americans. That must change to ever have the support to stand against entrenched big money power.
"Its the most wonderful time of the year" .You certainly wouldn't know that based on the comments that have been posted here these last few weeks.You'd assume we would all be dead by the end of the year.

"There'll be parties for hosting
Marshmallows for toasting"...........

Let's remember the media carries the political narrative in America. Now ask yourself, where was AGW during the debates or anywhere for that matter? We don't have the power in the right places to make this a fair fight. This has to be a door to door grassroots effort to win hearts and minds for a most important truth. The future hangs in the balance and our time is short to stop this run away train from crushing our future.
We need a national movement that has far more momentum than the current one.



Veterans this past week have shown the Nation a way forward in peace,strength and wisdom.

Our movement has stirred many to rally behind us.

Use us well.

We still want to serve.

Again.

343. SuzK
Quoting 233. Hydrargyrum:

Climate change didn't stop in 1016 either, despite NO reports.  Funny, how that works.



They'd have benefitted from reports and forcasts though. Iceland might not have lost its colonies...the Little Ice Age might have been better prepared for. Even the Black Plague may have been averted somewhat. Solar flares and comets...reports keep us alive today. Science produces facts. These facts help us survive. There IS fact out there, if you really seek the truth.
A prayer request is asked for a wu moderator, auburn is undergoing surgery this hour.

Thanx.

For what it's worth and in regards to the election, the results have been in for a month. Get over it. It is what it is in the US. The rules are there for the public to see. Heard a good story this morning. I want to say sorry. Our society has clearly failed people in coping with reality by offering participation trophies and yes the same would be said about the other hard leaning side.

In regards to the weather channel thing, why give them (who should not be named) free advertising? This is what got a certain someone elected. The media both left and right owns the blame for creating this monster called deep division and the 2016 election. From ABC to Zerohedge.

As for AGW, people, no matter who they are, want to see results. What guarantee do we have of seeing positive results that would make a decent majority of people happy with current plans (please clarify on this topic by the way)? Say 65-85% majority. How about a modified plan? I feel that answering these questions right would guarantee recognition.
Just like the right got over the 2 term Man.....?

Sure, dat b da plan me man.

What is a AGW person?

A realist?

A idealist?

A President?

Your assertion and description will get the answers you deserve.

Try da Phish.

It's Weds,......

We now live in a werld where a Man with a weally, weally, bad Tan can destroy us all with His twitter account.

Fascinating, eh?



Urban Warming Slows Tree Growth, Impacting Urban Trees’ Role in Cutting Carbon

New research from North Carolina State University finds that urban warming reduces growth and photosynthesis in city trees. In other words, as the world gets warmer, city trees grow less.

Emily Meineke, lead author of a paper entitled “Urban warming reduces aboveground carbon storage,” which was published this month in the Royal Society journal Proceedings B, explains why this matters:


Link
Quoting 104. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

techno
the funny part is even with the solar cycle indicative of a cool time
the warming is continuing and increasing at a rapid pace
should be first clue something is going on in the shed no

Yes. That action may be thermal inertia coupled with infra red reflective CO2 and water vapor.
As CO2 and methane emissions are cut, CO2 reclamation should be started.
However in case sun spots disapear and rapid cooling starts, CO2 may be our friend, not a foe.
Perhaps we could enter an alternate universe.
Quoting 113. luvtogolf:



Our early ancestors have been here for 200,000 years and they want us to believe that it took the last 100 years to end it. I heard a guy on the radio that said that man will be extinct by 2040 due to climate change. Yea right. Even a mod said on here a couple of days ago that it's too late, the damage is done. If it is too late then what's the problem. Fear mongering......

How can anyone be sure "its too late, the damage (to Earth) is done. Its all over"
We have lots of technology to discover.
This does not bode well for the futures market.
I promised 4 weeks ago to stay on Blog topic and away from politics for the time being; will only note the following caveat. If the US breaks away from the Paris Treaty, that will push me over the edge and all bets are off.................
Take the Long View on Environmental Issues in the Age of Trump
By: Dr. Ricky Rood , 3:47 AM GMT on December 02, 2016

This is a stripped down version of an editorial that appeared on the American Geophysical Union’s EOS.org. Also note the formal citation at the end. Please read it there to give them the page counts. Thanks. r

Link
Quoting 350. ChiThom:

Perhaps we could enter an alternate universe.
I think we already have. It's been four weeks now, and counting...
Quoting 38. 999Ai2016:

This is the most dangerous time for our planet
By Stephen Hawking / The Guardian - Dec 1.
We can't go on ignoring inequality, because we have the means to destroy our world but not to escape it.

The Internet Can't Get Over the House Science Committee's
Climate-Denying Tweet - and That's a Good Thing

UCS (The Equation Blog) - Dec 2.


  • The Committee attacked scientistsat the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration for producing policy relevant climate science, demanding to see their email communications.
  • Currently, the Committee is targeting this scientist, well, the Union of Concerned Scientists, for having spoken with state attorneys general about the role of ExxonMobil selling a product they knew to be harmful due to the risks of climate change.
  • Chairman Smith previously attempted to interfere in the National Science Foundations grant process,ridiculing scientists workthat he found silly.
  • Chairman Smith tried to prevent the Environmental Protection Agency from doing its job of science-based public health and environmental protections via the Secret Science Act.
  • And he's attacked science in other ways too. But who's counting?! (Me.)

And yesterday's climate-denying tweet was not even its first science-attacking tweet of the week. The day prior, the Committee's handle had trolled Yale Climate Connections.

Despite this pervasive record of science-slamming, the House Science Committee was still taken to task for the recent climate-denying tweet and this is a good thing. We cannot normalize science denial. It is entirely inappropriate for members of Congress to be peddling misinformation on climate science—especially when they are in charge of the House Science Committee. The world noticed this and called them on it.

We need to do more of this. When science is denied by our decision makers, this cannot stand. We must persist in calling out such misinformation when we see it, whether it will come from the House Science Committee, the Trump administration, or other decision makers in the future. Americans deserve leaders who respect science and scientists. 

I promise to be a little less cynical moving forward and I hope you will too.

I suggest we protect our National Interests by protecting the Science,et al and the very Lives of Climate Scientists if needed.

If they want to destroy the science, they are going to have to go thru the Veteran wall.





Forgot to mention Pearl Harbor today:
National Pearl Harbor Remembrance Day, also referred to asPearl Harbor Remembrance DayorPearl Harbor Day, is observed annually in the United Stateson December 7, to remember and honor the 2,403 citizens of the United States who were killed in the Japanese surprise attack on Pearl Harborin Hawaii on December 7, 1941.

We have come a long way since then; now the big news as of yesterday is that rather then announce pending domestic spending and investments to get US workers employed by US companies or entities, is that Japan (by way of 50% of the investment from the Saudis) is making the investment here to create American jobs (paychecks paid by Japan/SA)....................Perfect illustration of what has gone wrong here over the last 40 years and proof (no go) for those who think that the US can extricate itself from the current global economy.......................I am thinking of a way to tie this comment into a weather related one............................................... ...Ok, the Himawari satt system is incredible..................................
Indian Ocean / Bay of Bengal : TCFA issued yesterday by the JTWC was replaced today by
Tropical Cyclone 05B (Five) Warning #01 - Issued at 07/1500Z : Link
Stopgap spending bill leaves US scientists in limbo
Proposal would keep funding flat for most research agencies, but cuts could come early next year.

Link
I didn't need to read any further after the words "(U.K.) Daily Mail". Seriously? The Daily Mail? If you base your argument on what appears in the Daily Mail you're always going to end up looking stupid.
And here is a look at the pending storm in the Indian Ocean: looks like a potential bad one that could cause dangerous storm surge and flooding in parts of very vulnerable India downstream depending on the ultimate track: 
Combined image of all basins
Here comes Warm Neutral and maybe weak El-Nino in the coming months. Looks like a lot of crow for most of the blog needs to be served.

PDO for November should coming in over 1.00 to 1.30. Like I said before you can't have +PDO regimes like this and expect that La-Nina is just going to show up like many models were saying it would.




Roanu tracker

NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 7.0N 92.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.2N 91.3E, APPROXIMATELY 690
NM SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 061152Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOW
CONVECTION FLARING TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BANDING STEADILY BECOMING
CLEARER AND MORE ORGANIZED ON THE MICROWAVE IMAGE. UPPER LEVEL
CONDITIONS IN THE AREA ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE WITH MODERATE (15-
20KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), OFFSET BY STRONG UPPER LEVEL
OUTFLOW AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE
NORTHWEST OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 061600) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
Quoting 355. Neapolitan:

I think we already have. It's been four weeks now, and counting...


NOOO!!! I wanna go back!!!

This new universe appears much less stable.
Don't even bother; look at the join date 2 days ago...........................................
Quoting 369. 1wintergreen1:


Weather and climate are two different things. Just so you don't make that mistake again.
Quoting 368. StormTrackerScott:

PDO for November should coming in over 1.00 to 1.30. Like I said before you can't have PDO regimes like this and expect that La-Nina is just going to show up like many models were saying it would.


My oversimplified mental image is of a narrow strip of cool along the equator (La Nina) overwhelmed by huge warm anomalies from the upper tropics, poleward. La Nina is there (not very strong though) but being overwhelmed by much larger positive anomaly areas out of the classical ENSO region. It's oversimplified because there are some large cool areas north of the upper tropics including the location of the (deceased) warm blob two years ago but the overall departures are well above normal averaged over the Pacific.

Conclusion is the same. Simplistic ENSO phase arguments will not work this year.
Soi now negative for the 30 day average and nearing Zero for the 90 day average. That is what neutral looks like folks. What this means is the forecast that the CPC put out for the Winter Season will bust. I called bluff on that as soon as they released that baseless forecast.

Latest Southern Oscillation Index values
SOI values for 07 Dec 2016 Average for last 30 days -1.28
Average for last 90 days 2.51
Daily contribution to SOI calculation 1.09
I think I just saw a whitewalker in the thread,...

Someone get werd to Kings Landing..

ASAP.



I don't know about you but t*r babies are a racial slur where I come from.Why hasn't the comment been removed?
378. OKsky
Quoting 369. 1wintergreen1:

You climate alarmists barely have a clue about the future and behave like preachers spreading the "gospel" and asking people to accept projections based on faith and massaged data. You cannot even explain "odd" tornado and hurricane activity which does not jibe with your dubious predictions. Probably even irritates you. Countless weather and climate findings baffle you daily because they don't match up with your predictions. This is nothing more than another cottage industry where endless funds are available, providing one drinks the Kool-Aid. Climatology is a pseudoscience chock full of emotion and bias and $$$$. I expect this post to be blocked because it is critical of the climate change/global warming/human induced global damage community. This is a religion, clearly.


Im just going to point out that making baseless assertions isn't actually effective criticism. If you were arguing points wrt something that I considered valid I would tell you to stop "helping". I will let others here that are more eloquent than myself destroy the "points" you raised.

Edit: In other words.. since you seem to look at religion as irrational nonsense (something that I happen to agree with) Then you should understand why I demand that you back your assertions with evidence. Please show where all this corrupting "climatology money" is located for example.
Quoting 378. OKsky:



Im just going to point out that making baseless assertions isn't actually effective criticism. If you were arguing points wrt something that I considered valid I would tell you to stop "helping". I will let others here that are more eloquent than myself destroy the "points" you raised.


He does mention religion and science in one breath..............Not a good pick of words based on history.....................I could argue that DT is the closest thing to the Anti-Christ that I have seen in recent decades ("give me all the power and I will fix everything") but that would get us nowhere at this point with a big storm threatening in the Indian Ocean.
The weatherbell rang....

Did yule hear it too?




:P
Quoting 369. 1wintergreen1:

You climate alarmists barely have a clue about the future and behave like preachers spreading the "gospel" and asking people to accept projections based on faith and massaged data. You cannot even explain "odd" tornado and hurricane activity which does not jibe with your dubious predictions. Probably even irritates you. Countless weather and climate findings baffle you daily because they don't match up with your predictions. This is nothing more than another cottage industry where endless funds are available, providing one drinks the Kool-Aid. Climatology is a pseudoscience chock full of emotion and bias and $$$$. I expect this post to be blocked because it is critical of the climate change/global warming/human induced global damage community. This is a religion, clearly.


Willful ignorance and angry about it. Yuck
Quoting 369. 1wintergreen1:

I expect this post to be blocked because it is critical of the climate change/global warming/human induced global damage community. This is a religion, clearly.
Oh, it won't be blocked. But it will, however, be roundly ridiculed--and not for any other reason than the fact that it's, you know, ridiculous. (That, in addition to being packed with lazy ad hominems; I count 18. That's gotta be some kind of a record.)
Quoting 369. 1wintergreen1:

[deletia]
Wow, you joined just for this?
Pro Tip: You forgot to say 'Al Gore'. Always say 'Al Gore'.

Quoting 289. ronnm:

-snip- is a fact they are bad in trade wars. But to protect industry, not a bit.

WE in fact have a tariff now on imported Chinese steel brought into fact by Obama. Why? -snip- Corporatism is global with international companies who run the show not nationalistic.
00


What really inhaled is we tried to pass a bill for Obama to sign that stop companies like carrier to write off the expense of moving their factory to another country and give a tax break for companies moving back to America but it was filibustered. Now if Trump thinks he is going to get any legislation that has a whiff of protectionism in it, it will not happen. If we do nothing a severe recession in 6 months is likely with the continued offshoring.
Recount complete in Wisconsin and well Trump actually gained votes. Those who donated to Jill Stein lost money. Jill Stein is a scammer folks! Also those freaking out about Trumps policies need to understand Trump will do what's best for our Country as he has already met with Al Gore and has had conversations with Obama about Climate Change and Trump is willing to help accept ideas.

I think folks need to stop the hyper bowl and just relax as unlike Hillary Trump is not a crook! #weatherbell has rang.
Quoting 359. Patrap:

I suggest we protect our National Interests by protecting the Science,et al and the very Lives of Climate Scientists if needed.

If they want to destroy the science, they are going to have to go thru the Veteran wall.








True but we also have to protect our Country first. Jobs leaving the US everyday and this needs to stop as Countries are profiting from our inventive sense for jobs in their Countries. It's time we help out ourselves then we can focus on helping resolve Climate Change as Climate Change wont matter if you are out of work while your job gets outsourced. #Timetowakeuppeople.
Interesting piece of new research out on the speed of the Earths rotation; interesting note on the issue of glacial sheets and their impact on this issue:  Mother Nature is one big inter-connected ball of wax which is why all this talk related to climate change is so important.  In the olden days, scientists were killed-exiled, etc. for advocating that the Earth was round and not flat...................That turned out to be correct.  
Logic tells me that we should also listen to the majority of climate scientists around the world that are currently sounding the alarm on AGW......................... 

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/12/ancient-ec lipses-show-earth-s-rotation-slowing

The interaction between ocean tides and Earth’s continents is the biggest factor in slowing Earth down, Morrison explains. As those landmasses get slammed by the seas, Earth loses some rotational momentum. But models considering only this phenomenon suggest that Earth’s rotation should be slowing down more than observed, by about 2.3 milliseconds per day every century.

So other factors must be at work, the researchers say. One major influence is the slow rebound of crust that was weighed down by massive ice sheets during the last ice age that have since melted away. Whereas the crust is springing upward at high latitudes, at lower latitudes the planet is shrinking inward. Like an ice skater bringing her arms inward to spin faster, that overall shift of mass is speeding up Earth’s rotation, Morrison says.

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Let's not forget that Gerrymandering has left the right with footholds in many traditionally Democratic states. Without, as in Wisconsin, the over rule by the court as illegal; the right could control these states for decades to come. We are entering into nothing short of a National crisis. The storm to come has left many feeling powerless, but we have not yet given in to the ruling elite. Now is the time to fight.
December 7th, the anniversary of the USA entering into the second Global Resource War (GBR). Hopefully there will never be a third GRW...but i am getting really pessimistic about that...
Quoting 349. TechnoCaveman:


Yes. That action may be thermal inertia coupled with infra red reflective CO2 and water vapor.
As CO2 and methane emissions are cut, CO2 reclamation should be started.
However in case sun spots disapear and rapid cooling starts, CO2 may be our friend, not a foe.

Sorry, your science is woefully inadequate. If sunspots disappear the warming might slow as much as 1-2%, so instead of 2 degrees it might wind up 1.8 degrees warmer -- still too much for most of the Earth's ecosystems. There will be no need for a CO2 blanket to prevent an ice age -- that ship has already sunk. And the thermal flywheel is already wound up pretty tight -- the 70% of the Earth's surface has been sinking the heating and CO2 for many years and when that gets released, then the mayhem REALLY starts.
Quoting 307. MahFL:



The problem with these studies is :
A: There is a 70% chance, which people automatically equate to 100%.
B: Mid century is 34 years away, we have no idea what might happen in that kind of time frame.
C: Another study will say there is no future problem with Polar Bear numbers.


A: No they don't.
B: If present trends continue--and there's no countervailing evidence to show they won't--we kinda do have an idea.
C: If Arctic sea ice magically rebounds to pre-1980 levels we might just see such a study.
Quoting 296. JustSouthofEquator:



This comment intrigued me out of lurking. Does anyone here had philosophy in their curriculum? I had a brief lesson while I was in Med school. The first and only time I came across philosophy. I found it to be incredibly fascinating, especially in applying scientific methods. Its thought provoking and challenges your perspective on many things. It should be taught along with basic science.



No - it was a community college elective - during that time I was struggling to understand the "why" and "need" of my brother being sent to Iraq. I was just out of high school in 2003 when I took it. Some things about "world view" and history were appropriately applied by a history teacher in high school, but that still doesn't really ascertain "how" to reach logical conclusions without reciting rote facts and a standardized 5 paragraphs format. Once I did Philosophy and more advanced philosophy classes, I applied the techniques there and became "successful".
Quoting 349. TechnoCaveman:


Yes. That action may be thermal inertia coupled with infra red reflective CO2 and water vapor.
As CO2 and methane emissions are cut, CO2 reclamation should be started.
However in case sun spots disapear and rapid cooling starts, CO2 may be our friend, not a foe.


Not really. Best guess is that human activities have pushed off cooling from reduced solar output indefinitely.
http://www.skepticalscience.com/grand-solar-minim um-mini-ice-age.htm
The fact of the matter is that this hoax is dead for the next 8 years and hopefully beyond. When all of these climate change scientists get defunded by Trump, and those funds go toward putting a lot of the the 95 million underemployed Americans get back to work, the American public will care less than they do about climate change now.

NASA and the EPA are going to get their funding global warming funded gutted and those funds are going to put Americans back to work...on things like space exploration and infrastructure improvements.

And when the credits for all this stupid eagle killing wind stuff goes away, those dollars can be re-directed toward more beneficial activities.

So let your patron saint Michael Mann spout on...and let Tom Steyer waste his billions on this nonsense. Climate scientists need to look to see what doctors who advocated leeches in the 1800's did when they was proven to be a hoax.

Bert
Quoting 398. bjrabbit:

The fact of the matter is that this hoax is dead for the next 8 years and hopefully beyond. When all of these climate change scientists get defunded by Trump, and those funds go toward putting a lot of the the 95 million underemployed Americans get back to work, the American public will care less than they do about climate change now.

NASA and the EPA are going to get their funding global warming funded gutted and those funds are going to put Americans back to work...on things like space exploration and infrastructure improvements.

And when the credits for all this stupid eagle killing wind stuff goes away, those dollars can be re-directed toward more beneficial activities.

So let your patron saint Michael Mann spout on...and let Tom Steyer waste his billions on this nonsense. Climate scientists need to look to see what doctors who advocated leeches in the 1800's did when they was proven to be a hoax.

Bert

Can't resist this one...Modern Leeching
Quoting 364. zielwolf:

I didn't need to read any further after the words "(U.K.) Daily Mail". Seriously? The Daily Mail? If you base your argument on what appears in the Daily Mail you're always going to end up looking stupid.

Awesome first comment, IMHO.
Atmospheric temperatures flop around like a dog's tail as he eats your sandwich as you watch the game.
If you want to know which way atmospheric temperatures are going, watch ocean temperatures. They are up, and atmospheric temperatures will follow, just as surely as you will yell at the bad dog that is eating your sandwich.