WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Climate Change Moves Firmly Into the Present: Blockbuster National Climate Assessment

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:02 PM GMT on May 06, 2014

Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present,” begins a new 1,000+ page report on U.S. climate released May 6. The National Climate Assessment, issued every four years by NOAA, is an effort by more than 300 U.S. scientists to assess how the climate is changing in the U.S. The report was supervised and approved by a 60-member committee representing a cross section of American society, including representatives of two oil companies. “Summers are longer and hotter, and extended periods of unusual heat last longer than any living American has ever experienced,” the report continues. “Winters are generally shorter and warmer. Rain comes in heavier downpours. People are seeing changes in the length and severity of seasonal allergies, the plant varieties that thrive in their gardens, and the kinds of birds they see in any particular month in their neighborhoods.” The National Climate Assessment lists hotter heat waves, more intense droughts, coastal inundation due to rising seas, heavier downpours, melting of glaciers and permafrost, bigger wildfires, worsening air pollution, stronger storms, increased diseases transmitted by insects, food, and water, and threats to mental health, as being of particular concern for Americans. If you want a thorough understanding of how climate change is affecting and will affect the U.S., this highly readable document is a great one to read, and I plan to frequently reference it in the coming years. Coming on the heels of a major 3-part report released by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in September - April, the National Climate Assessment presents the same key themes: climate change is already having widespread impacts and will get much worse, but there are cost-effective measures we can take to adapt to it and help reduced it. “Climate change presents a major challenge for society,” the report warns. “There is mounting evidence that harm to the nation will increase substantially in the future unless global emissions of heat-trapping gases are greatly reduced.” What’s particularly handy about the NCA is that it is U.S.-specific, and discusses in great detail the specific impacts in eight different regions of the U.S.: Northeast, Southeast and Caribbean, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest, Alaska, and Hawaii and Pacific Islands. I present here a few highlights.

Wet areas will get wetter, and dry areas will get drier. To me, this is the key finding of the NCA. As shown in Figure 1 below, the water-rich will get richer, and the water-poor will get poorer. This pattern will increase the costs of both droughts and floods, and make it harder to grow crops, on average, when the nation-wide impact is considered.


Figure 1. Difference in precipitation (in percent) between the observed 1970 - 1999 period, and the 30-year period centered on 2084, as predicted by 15 climate models used to formulate the 2007 IPCC climate report. The models assumed a relatively high-emissions scenario (A2), though not as high as the path humanity is currently on. The results show a key prediction of the future for North America: wet areas are expected to get wetter, and dry areas are expected to get drier. The predicted summer dryness across the major grain-growing areas of the U.S. is of particular concern, since increases in dryness will make is harder to grow food. Image credit: NASA and NOAA.

Agriculture: “Climate disruptions to agriculture have been increasing and are projected to become more severe over this century. Some areas are already experiencing climate- related disruptions, particularly due to extreme weather events. While some U.S. regions and some types of agricultural production will be relatively resilient to climate change over the next 25 years or so, others will increasingly suffer from stresses due to extreme heat, drought, disease, and heavy downpours. From mid-century on, climate change is projected to have more negative impacts on crops and livestock across the country – a trend that could diminish the security of our food supply... Climate change effects on agriculture will have consequences for food security, both in the U.S. and globally, through changes in crop yields and food prices and effects on food processing, storage, transportation, and retailing. Adaptation measures can help delay and reduce some of these impacts.”

Water: “The Southwest, Great Plains, and Southeast are particularly vulnerable to changes in water supply and demand. Changes in precipitation and runoff, combined with changes in consumption and withdrawal, have reduced surface and groundwater supplies in many areas. These trends are expected to continue, increasing the likelihood of water shortages for many uses. Increasing flooding risk affects human safety and health, property, infrastructure, economies, and ecology in many basins across the United States.”

Heavy Downpours: “Heavy downpours are increasing nationally, especially over the last three to five decades. Largest increases are in the Midwest and Northeast. Increases in the frequency and intensity of extreme precipitation events are projected for all U.S. regions.”


Figure 2. Percent changes in the amount of precipitation falling in very heavy events (the heaviest 1%) from 1958 to 2012 for each region. There is a clear national trend toward a greater amount of precipitation being concentrated in very heavy events, particularly in the Northeast and Midwest. Image credit: NCA Overview, updated from Karl et al. 2009.

Extreme Weather: “There have been changes in some types of extreme weather events over the last several decades. Heat waves have become more frequent and intense, especially in the West. Cold waves have become less frequent and intense across the Nation. There have been regional trends in floods and droughts. Droughts in the Southwest and heat waves everywhere are projected to become more intense, and cold waves less intense everywhere.”

Hurricanes: “The intensity, frequency, and duration of North Atlantic hurricanes, as well as the frequency of the strongest (Category 4 and 5) hurricanes, have all increased since the early 1980s. The relative contributions of human and natural causes to these increases are still uncertain. Hurricane-associated storm intensity and rainfall rates are projected to increase as the climate continues to warm.”

Severe Storms: “Winter storms have increased in frequency and intensity since the 1950s, and their tracks have shifted northward over the United States. Other trends in severe storms, including the intensity and frequency of tornadoes, hail, and damaging thunderstorm winds, are uncertain and are being studied intensively.”

Oceans: “Ocean waters are becoming warmer and more acidic, broadly affecting ocean circulation, chemistry, ecosystems, and marine life. More acidic waters inhibit the formation of shells, skeletons, and coral reefs. Warmer waters harm coral reefs and alter the distribution, abundance, and productivity of many marine species. The rising temperature and changing chemistry of ocean water combine with other stresses, such as overfishing and coastal and marine pollution, to alter marine-based food production and harm fishing communities.” The NCA website has an impressive interactive graphic with a slider that allows one to see the impact of acidification on a pteropod’s shell.

The official roll-out of the NCA will occur at 2pm EDT May 6 from the White House, and will be webcast live at http:/www.whitehouse.gov/live. According to Andrew Freedman at Mashable, eight television meteorologists are slated to have rare one-on-one interviews about global warming with President Barack Obama on Tuesday, including Al Roker, co-anchor of NBC's Today Show; Ginger Zee, meteorologist on ABC's Good Morning America; John Morales, chief meteorologist of NBC 6 in Miami, Florida; and Jim Gandy, meteorologist of WLTX-TV in Columbia, South Carolina. President Obama also previously did an interview on climate change with a crew from Showtime's documentary series "Years of Living Dangerously”; the interview is scheduled to air sometime in the next few months.

Unlike the IPCC report, the U.S. National Climate Assessment is plainly written, easy-to-understand, and has an excellent web site with nice graphics, some of them interactive. I highly recommend perusing the Overview section of the NCA website to get a quick summary of their findings. They've also made available a collection of short videos.

I’ll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 969. Grothar:




That thing is starting to toss up plenty of moisture just in time for the front coming into Texas.
We might see a lot of rain from it all -- much needed rain!
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:(991)
they now have chicken lamb fish flavor also formed into the shape you want pre order now yummy good tofu for u


Still below normal up there. It should be normal tomorrow, then above. About time huh?
1003. ncstorm
066

WTNT80 EGRR 071800



MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC



AND ATLANTIC



GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 12UTC 07.05.2014



TROPICAL STORM DEVELOPED IN THE MODEL ANALYSIS AT POSITION : 14.5N 106.3W



VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY

-------------- -------- -------- --------

12UTC 07.05.2014 14.5N 106.3W WEAK

00UTC 08.05.2014 15.0N 105.8W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 08.05.2014 16.2N 104.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 09.05.2014 16.4N 103.5W WEAK WEAKENING SLIGHTLY

12UTC 09.05.2014 16.4N 103.1W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

00UTC 10.05.2014 15.9N 103.3W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE

12UTC 10.05.2014 16.3N 104.0W WEAK INTENSIFYING SLIGHTLY

00UTC 11.05.2014 BELOW TROPICAL STORM STRENGTH





THIS INFORMATION IS PROVIDED AS GUIDANCE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE

RSMCS. IT REQUIRES INTERPRETATION BY TROPICAL CYCLONE SPECIALISTS

AND SHOULD NOT BE CONSIDERED AS A FINAL PRODUCT





MET OFFICE, EXETER, UK



TOO 071628


Quoting 1000. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:






Sorry, but that seems sort of obscene.
Quoting etxwx:

Say what??


Eat mor Chikin...
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well if ya think co2 is bad wait till ya see what the methane is going to do


Faster and faster....
Quoting 495. MahFL:



I have yet to see an American that is starving. I see many morbidly obese ones, but no starving ones.


Well, with most WIC/SNAP cards being inadequate to provide HEALTHY food to last out the month, people with money problems on those programs will buy what's cheap and filling, and fill in the gaps with food bank visits.

We refused a few years back to go the SNAP route, but we did use the local food bank. And as a rule, food banks are a little bit meat/dairy/poultry (whatever the supermarket tosses into the freezer on the Sell By date) plus nearly expired or expired canned/packaged goods, plus expired bakery goods. LOTS AND LOTS OF EXPIRED BAKERY GOODS.

It was not a healthy diet. We saved the healthier stuff (purchased and banked) for the nursing mom and kiddos, and the rest of us filled up on what was left. The quality of what we were eating was not just reflected in our energy levels, but in our mental states. Crappy food leads to crappy attitudes. Too much farm and fencing work, getting our property ready for the livestock we wanted to save up for, that meant that the crappy food (which we knew and tried to moderate) was burned off too quickly to create obesity conditions.

Much of the reason these people are obese when it comes to poverty (my mom even saw it back in the 50's and 60's, she referred to those kids as "overweight and undernourished) is because of an adequate, healthy plate of food costs more than a loaded tray of cheap starch topped with "cream style sauce" or "melted cheese food product" flavored with MSG and bits of mechanically separated poultry, pork or beef.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
We are getting torrential rain here in PR , and more is coming...


I agree with you! It started here at about 5:00 while I was on the way to pick up the grandbaby at daycare. Of course, the driver's side window thingy chose to break down while the window was down....not only was I in the middle of a flood outside but inside too!

Just looked at my trusty "Home Depot" pail outside and we had just over 4 inches in less than two hours.

Jumping for joy over here. I could hear the water pouring into the cistern.

Lindy
Quoting 1006. PedleyCA:



Faster and faster....
as always
Quoting 1002. PedleyCA:



Still below normal up there. It should be normal tomorrow, then above. About time huh?
heat goes off tomorrow low 70's on Friday with afternoon thunderstorms likely
Quoting 1010. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

heat goes off tomorrow low 70's on Friday with afternoon thunderstorms likely


You had to rub in the thunderstorms part.....lol
Quoting 1011. PedleyCA:



You had to rub in the thunderstorms part.....lol
there actually calling for thunderstorms late tonight and after midnight that's the signal for the approaching warmer air mass
Tonight, 7 MayPartly cloudy. Becoming cloudy this evening with 60 percent chance of showers late this evening and overnight. Risk of a thunderstorm late this evening and overnight. Wind east 30 km/h. Low 7.
1014. Gearsts
1015. ncstorm
1016. ncstorm
Tropical Wave approaching the bahamas..days 6-7

Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


Maybe down for now. With the greening effect of the CO2 on world forests and the increased use of natural gas, wouldn't the CO2 drop off and the resultant lush growth lead to higher oxygen levels? It does work like that, right? I see there is a bigger shift trying to get over to natural gas, so this could happen, right?
This doesn't answer your question exactly, but you might find it interesting:

Amazon Forest as a Source of Carbon Dioxide

An interview with a scientist studying drought in the Amazon forest: drought (which is I believe projected to increase) kills trees, which decay, emitting CO2 rather than absorbing it.
This is why people storm chase. Look at this structure on the storm near Henrietta, TX.


(Image credit to Paige Burress)
Quoting 957. spbloom:



Yes, continuing to use the atmosphere as a carbon dump the way we are is absolutely frightening. Glad you agree!

Speaking of CO2 greening, while as someone else pointed out there's a serious issue with deforestation, it turns out our food crops have a problem (from today's Guardian):



This "science" is all geared to prove CO2 to be bad.
Isn't real science supposed to be objective?
When you look for ghosts & goblins, you might find them somehow.
Maybe there is something in it to beware. Maybe that is simply something we must adapt to.
Did they study whether there was an "up side" to it all? --- No? -- Ooohh.
Since the tree greening will likely turn the extra CO2 into aforestation (needed) & more oxygen (output from trees), the levels of CO2 will likely lower over time after helping to boost forest growth back closer to healthy levels.
If our forests are ruined, isn't that bad, too? Isn't that also bad for Earth & humanity?

Now, what about the potential for other positives? Did they study other crops and potential crops to see whether this could all make an increase in food production for the starving millions via alternatives to the grains?
I doubt it. However, there are a great variety of crops and many come from trees and non-cereal grains, which might not be affected so much. They might even be affected positively. Not sure, but amaranth might be one: it is a superfood due to its high nutrient content, but it has too much iron to be all that great as a main staple food. Sure, the Aztecs ate it but used other items, too. It is extremely high in iron & protein -- to high in iron to seem safe in constant high amounts. Some trees also have high food value crops.
-- I'm just saying that while there are seeming negatives, there are likely some positives.
Yet, just like an argument between feuding parents, the "children" often only get a one-sided story from the ones they listen to. I like to listen to both sides, and I get really leary when one side refuses to acknowledge anything whatsoever from another perspective.
Planting lots and lots of trees to take in the CO2 as part of their photosynthesis is an idea that sounds great, but probably won't do much long-term. Plants grow (and yes, take in carbon), plants die (and that carbon is processed by decomposition and returned back to the atmosphere). The Carbon Cycle will only really be a solution for us if we actively sequester that excess carbon and isolate it from the system. I guess we could try dumping gigatons of biomass in the Marianas Trench or launch a mega-rocket full of dead trees into the Sun...
Quoting 1018. TropicalAnalystwx13:

This is why people storm chase. Look at this structure on the storm near Henrietta, TX.


(Image credit to Paige Burress)


Oh...no.
They're coming ba-aaack, again. -- NOT another abduction, nooooo!
(darned motherships)
This "science" is all geared to prove lead in gasoline to be bad.
Isn't real science supposed to be objective?
When you look for ghosts & goblins, you might find them somehow.
Maybe there is something in it to beware. Maybe that is simply something we must adapt to.
Did they study whether there was an "up side" to it all? --- No? -- Ooohh.

This "science" is all geared to prove cigarette smoking to be bad.
Isn't real science supposed to be objective?
When you look for ghosts & goblins, you might find them somehow.
Maybe there is something in it to beware. Maybe that is simply something we must adapt to.
Did they study whether there was an "up side" to it all? --- No? -- Ooohh.

This "science" is all geared to prove not getting vaccinations to be bad.
Isn't real science supposed to be objective?
When you look for ghosts & goblins, you might find them somehow.
Maybe there is something in it to beware. Maybe that is simply something we must adapt to.
Did they study whether there was an "up side" to it all? --- No? -- Ooohh.
Quoting 1020. schistkicker:

Planting lots and lots of trees to take in the CO2 as part of their photosynthesis is an idea that sounds great, but probably won't do much long-term. Plants grow (and yes, take in carbon), plants die (and that carbon is processed by decomposition and returned back to the atmosphere). The Carbon Cycle will only really be a solution for us if we actively sequester that excess carbon and isolate it from the system. I guess we could try dumping gigatons of biomass in the Marianas Trench or launch a mega-rocket full of dead trees into the Sun...


The carbon from trees & other vegetation likely doesn't immediately return into the atmosphere.
Otherwise, how would we have any carbon in fossil fuels that came from....organic life?
I suppose the decaying trees will enrich the ground, as others grow & take in more carbon.
We already have replaced quite a lot of coal-burning utility plants or converted them to using natural gas. This will continue, and as it does, it tremendously lowers the CO2 levels. Electricty generation is a big CO2 source, so moving to natural gas is helping.
Quoting 1019. WalkingInTheSun:


That was a grossly misinformed post with vacuous claims and smacked of conspiracy theorist nonsense.
BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
530 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
WESTERN PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...
SOUTHEASTERN LOGAN COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 600 PM MDT

* AT 530 PM MDT...A CONFIRMED TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF
HIGHLAND CENTER...OR 9 MILES NORTH OF CLARKVILLE...MOVING NORTHEAST
AT 20 MPH.

HAZARD...DAMAGING TORNADO AND HALF DOLLAR SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...PUBLIC CONFIRMED TORNADO.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HAXTUN...PAOLI...HIGHLAND CENTER AND FAIRFIELD.
1027. JRRP
Quoting ncstorm:
Tropical Wave approaching the bahamas..days 6-7


is not TW
That is a very interesting forecast. It is also worth mentioning that the US Gulf Coast has been hit by tropical storms and hurricanes during El Nino years. It is not unusual to get tropical storm or hurricane form in the Gulf of Mexico early in the season, during an El Nino year.

Examples of early formations of Gulf Coast tropical storms during an El Nino year or "slow" hurricane season:

Audrey - June 1957, hit LA/TX
Agnes - June 1972, hit NW FL, NE US
Bonnie - June 1986 hit upper TX coast
Alberto - July 1994 hit FL panhandle
Danny - July 1997, hit mouth of Miss R, LA; Mobile Bay, AL, NW FL
Alberto - June 2006 hit big bend FL
Barry - June 2007 brushed FL W coast


We have been hit by strong Gulf Coast hurricanes during slow hurricane seasons or El Nino years:

Betsy - 1965 slammed New Orleans, LA
Beulah - 1967 pummeled S. Texas
Carmen - 1974 hits S. LA
Eloise - 1975 slams FL panhandle, SE AL
Frederic - 1979 clobbers Mobile, AL, and Pascagoula, MS
Alicia - 1983 slams Galveston and Houston, TX
Andrew - 1992 decimates S FL, hits LA

From the mid 1990s up until last year, we have had busier Atlantic hurricane seasons, with more named storms.

So, we will see what happens this year. Just because the total number of storms is lower, we could still get hit. Hope everyone is ready .... every year. After dealing with ice storms and flooding rains along the Gulf Coast so far in 2014, what next!





Quoting 871. rmbjoe1954:

I see Global Weather Oscillations (out of Ocala) reduced their forcast numbers for 2014 from 17 down to 13-6-2. Their cyclical analysis shows that 2 hurricanes should hit mainland USA even with a WEAK El Nino pattern being set up.

All other predictions indicate a moderate to strong El Nino by summertime so I would expect their numbers to come down in line with all other predictions.






Quoting 1022. schistkicker:

This "science" is all geared to prove lead in gasoline to be bad.
Isn't real science supposed to be objective?
When you look for ghosts & goblins, you might find them somehow.
Maybe there is something in it to beware. Maybe that is simply something we must adapt to.
Did they study whether there was an "up side" to it all? --- No? -- Ooohh.

This "science" is all geared to prove cigarette smoking to be bad.
Isn't real science supposed to be objective?
When you look for ghosts & goblins, you might find them somehow.
Maybe there is something in it to beware. Maybe that is simply something we must adapt to.
Did they study whether there was an "up side" to it all? --- No? -- Ooohh.

This "science" is all geared to prove not getting vaccinations to be bad.
Isn't real science supposed to be objective?
When you look for ghosts & goblins, you might find them somehow.
Maybe there is something in it to beware. Maybe that is simply something we must adapt to.
Did they study whether there was an "up side" to it all? --- No? -- Ooohh.


You forgot about how bad science proved eggs & various other foods to be bad...then later changed their minds.
Why? Because they looked at only part of the facts, didn't realize the whole picture, etc. & lept toerronious conclusions. They meant well. They were simply wrong. They had science, but it was incomplete & left some things out.
There is something like that in the matters of an old southern comfort, sassafras tea.
The science peeps found it has "safrole" in it, which they decided to be carcinogenic, so there was a big fuss about how bad sassafras was for people. Problem is, as they did more studies, there happened to be other things in the sassafras that made the entire concoction..."non-carcinogenic". Whatever else was in it made it NOT bad. Same thing for eggs (due to the lecithin). BTW, egg yolk lecithin is about 13 times better for the immune system than the cheaper soy lecithin.
This kind of stuff goes on often in "science". Scientists like to be known as discovering things, so we often hear how something or another causes this or that, but it sometimes isn't so, and sometimes the affect comes from something else than what they thought.


90E LOOKING GOOD RIGHT NOW.
Quoting 1024. Birthmark:


That was a grossly misinformed post with vacuous claims and smacked of conspiracy theorist nonsense.


(sniff) -- Okay, okay: I'm SORRY I lept to conclusions and said that trees give off oxygen. -- Better?
Quoting 1019. WalkingInTheSun:



I applaud your post in many way as I agree with the underlying tenor of finding solutions. I farm so the subject is closer to home for me and thanks for the shout out on Amaranth..wow!! I planted some yesterday it truly is beautiful and Thomas Jefferson was sold on it's nutritional aspects over so many other grains. My personal life desire is to provide solutions for your questions, and one of the most troubling for me, is why are we using the same staples year in and year out..Corn, wheat, rice, etc...when in fact there are so many far more nutritionally valuable food stuffs that are less feeders of water and fertilizer..I farm organically. Period. But more so I'm an 'agricultural scientist' experimenting with super-foods in very harsh country at 6,000 feet in Arizona..bringing solutions to exactly what you are pointing out. We've got to come to terms with the fact that we will indeed extract every bloody ounce of oil and coal from this earth ..and maybe not in your life time or mine ..but this is going to be one frightening place to live..
Quoting WalkingInTheSun:


The carbon from trees & other vegetation likely doesn't immediately return into the atmosphere.
Otherwise, how would we have any carbon in fossil fuels that came from....organic life?
I suppose the decaying trees will enrich the ground, as others grow & take in more carbon.
We already have replaced quite a lot of coal-burning utility plants or converted them to using natural gas. This will continue, and as it does, it tremendously lowers the CO2 levels. Electricty generation is a big CO2 source, so moving to natural gas is helping.
If you read the article on the Amazon I linked to earlier, you find that a lot of the carbon does go back into the atmosphere quickly. You might also read the article CO2 is a Plant Food over at SkepticalScience. There's an explanation on which types of plants are benefited by extra CO2 and which aren't, with links to the studies. I've seen a number of studies in this area discussed lately, usually in the context of "oh, farming will just keep moving north if temperatures rise." You can find out a lot about plants and increasing CO2 levels if you just look. Google is really your friend here.


Looking like a typical globally-warmed barbeque summer for most of the U.S. And if we get that super El Nino, I imagine the pseduo-skeptics won't be able to find any data set on any time scale that shows no warming soon.
Quoting 1023. WalkingInTheSun:



The carbon from trees & other vegetation likely doesn't immediately return into the atmosphere.
Otherwise, how would we have any carbon in fossil fuels that came from....organic life?
I suppose the decaying trees will enrich the ground, as others grow & take in more carbon.
We already have replaced quite a lot of coal-burning utility plants or converted them to using natural gas. This will continue, and as it does, it tremendously lowers the CO2 levels. Electricty generation is a big CO2 source, so moving to natural gas is helping.


OK, you seem to be arguing from what you 'feel' is right or 'want' to be right, as the use of "likely" is attached to an oversimplified argument that just doesn't hold up. The coal we're extracting now is coming from rock layers 200-300 million years old, which is when that carbon was sequestered (and there were far, far fewer species of decomposers, especially fungi, around back then to break the carbon down prior to it becoming buried sufficiently deeply to sequester it geologically). Additionally, it was a much warmer climate back then, in part due to the really high CO2 levels, and there were lots of tropical lowlands to grow lots and lots of biomass in. If you want the organic carbon of plant life to remain outside the atmosphere, you have to prevent the carbon that makes it up from being oxidized. That means no decomposition in the topsoil, that means -really- rapid burial before it oxidizes. Just the tree falling in the woods won't do it. You have to get it buried deep in the soil profile. The proliferation of fungi in the modern world is one reason why the process doesn't exactly work the way you're envisioning it. Nature found a niche that wasn't being exploited, and now it is - and so the world won't behave exactly the same way now as it did in the Paleozoic.

Natural gas is a stopgap; it's not a long-term solution. Natural gas is a fossil fuel, just as coal and oil are. Burning natural gas still releases CO2 into the atmosphere as a byproduct, it's just not as much as coal or oil. (I guess if you asked me, I'd rather get stabbed in the arm than shot in the face, though neither of those options are all that great...)
Quoting 1017. FLwolverine:

This doesn't answer your question exactly, but you might find it interesting:

Amazon Forest as a Source of Carbon Dioxide

An interview with a scientist studying drought in the Amazon forest: drought (which is I believe projected to increase) kills trees, which decay, emitting CO2 rather than absorbing it.


Nice article -- thanks.
Now, some things to cue on?
For one, it is talking about drought. I still would think all the carbon is not released right away or there'd be none in fossil fuels. However, the amazon rain forests are huge, so that is where they mentioned lots of carbon being released in big droughts.
This, however, is a "closed loop" ideology and doesn't consider the rest of the world picture.
It does a little, by mentioning Africa & other forests -- in a negative way.
Again, we see "science" intentionally bent on seeing only the negative. That leaves out hope & other aspects.
I suppose they mean that all the moisture not there in drought has permanently vanished from the earth. It didn't.
Also, if indeed there is so much GW and world weather patterns changing, why not look for potential good benefits?
Hmmm, there is a LOT of land up north that is beyond the presently-forested regions.
Maybe all that land will become rich in forests with GW. Didn't the maps for moisture also show it going more northerly, too? That means it could push a huge forestation up north that could create a big consumption of CO2 and output of oxygen. Ahh, but these people don't want to go there or look or talk about it, unless it somehow means a disaster that can only be used to shank our economy & way of life and blame humans as the dirty evil B--s that need to have everything done for them and taken from them by those elites who just happen to know that they should rule & lord it over all of us for our collective benefit, of course.
Oh dear! This is hilarious!!

http://www.wunderground.com/news/fake-overused-we ather-photos-20140421

The last one cracks me up! lol
652pm-Severe storm W of Burkburnett likely producing ping pong ball sized hail and 60 mph wind gusts


new!!!! #Severe t'storm watch until 1a CDT includes the Twin Cities
Quoting 1033. WalkingInTheSun:



(sniff) -- Okay, okay: I'm SORRY I lept to conclusions and said that trees give off oxygen. -- Better?

You're sorry about the only thing you got right? lol
1043. 1344
Quoting 1031. hurricanes2018:



90E LOOKING GOOD RIGHT NOW.


It is looking better yes, but it's kinda out of time.
1044. ricderr

Quoting 1036. FLwolverine:

If you read the article on the Amazon I linked to earlier, you find that a lot of the carbon does go back into the atmosphere quickly. You might also read the article CO2 is a Plant Food over at SkepticalScience. There's an explanation on which types of plants are benefited by extra CO2 and which aren't, with links to the studies. I've seen a number of studies in this area discussed lately, usually in the context of "oh, farming will just keep moving north if temperatures rise." You can find out a lot about plants and increasing CO2 levels if you just look. Google is really your friend here.




Google Scholar even moreso.
Quoting 1031. hurricanes2018:



90E LOOKING GOOD RIGHT NOW.
Might pull a trick and become a td but I doubt its going to be a ts or even to strength to a td.
Quoting 1029. WalkingInTheSun:



You forgot about how bad science proved eggs & various other foods to be bad...then later changed their minds.
Why? Because they looked at only part of the facts, didn't realize the whole picture, etc. & lept toerronious conclusions. They meant well. They were simply wrong. They had science, but it was incomplete & left some things out.
There is something like that in the matters of an old southern comfort, sassafras tea.
The science peeps found it has "safrole" in it, which they decided to be carcinogenic, so there was a big fuss about how bad sassafras was for people. Problem is, as they did more studies, there happened to be other things in the sassafras that made the entire concoction..."non-carcinogenic". Whatever else was in it made it NOT bad. Same thing for eggs (due to the lecithin). BTW, egg yolk lecithin is about 13 times better for the immune system than the cheaper soy lecithin.
This kind of stuff goes on often in "science". Scientists like to be known as discovering things, so we often hear how something or another causes this or that, but it sometimes isn't so, and sometimes the affect comes from something else than what they thought.



That's nice and all, but in order to "undo" the scientific consensus on AGW, you're going to have to propose significant rewrites in the understanding of chemistry, physics, biology, oceanography, fluid dynamics, ecology, geology, and thermodynamics -- the mechanisms that have already been proposed not only explain the observations in one field, they dovetail nicely with completely unrelated topics in those fields and built further advances in those fields. It's not just "look, CO2 is a bogeyman! LET'S GET IT!!" it's decades of modern measurements, developing techniques that allow us to see further and further into the past (and those observations corroborated - via palynology, archaeology, stratigraphy, isotope geochemistry, hydrology, and others), and the picture has coalesced, and the resolution of the picture has only increased with time.

Furthermore, if it's really not CO2, then somehow, fortuitously, miraculously, it's a mechanism that mimics EXACTLY what modern science predicts changes in atmospheric CO2 would do (and has measured in the lab) - and somehow also masks the CO2 effect itself... AND ALSO DOESN'T BREAK ANY WELL-ESTABLISHED PRINCIPLES OF OTHER SCIENCES (see partial list above) That is going to be extraordinarily difficult to do, given the amount of time, effort, and workers that have been studying these problems - and many scientists would LOVE to stuff some new idea down a competitor's gullet (hey, if they're able to prove AGW theory wrong using sound science, there's a Nobel waiting for them). Good luck with that - better chances winning Powerball.
Quoting 1038. schistkicker:



OK, you seem to be arguing from what you 'feel' is right or 'want' to be right, as the use of "likely" is attached to an oversimplified argument that just doesn't hold up. The coal we're extracting now is coming from rock layers 200-300 million years old, which is when that carbon was sequestered (and there were far, far fewer species of decomposers, especially fungi, around back then to break the carbon down prior to it becoming buried sufficiently deeply to sequester it geologically). Additionally, it was a much warmer climate back then, in part due to the really high CO2 levels, and there were lots of tropical lowlands to grow lots and lots of biomass in. If you want the organic carbon of plant life to remain outside the atmosphere, you have to prevent the carbon that makes it up from being oxidized. That means no decomposition in the topsoil, that means -really- rapid burial before it oxidizes. Just the tree falling in the woods won't do it. You have to get it buried deep in the soil profile. The proliferation of fungi in the modern world is one reason why the process doesn't exactly work the way you're envisioning it. Nature found a niche that wasn't being exploited, and now it is - and so the world won't behave exactly the same way now as it did in the Paleozoic.

Natural gas is a stopgap; it's not a long-term solution. Natural gas is a fossil fuel, just as coal and oil are. Burning natural gas still releases CO2 into the atmosphere as a byproduct, it's just not as much as coal or oil. (I guess if you asked me, I'd rather get stabbed in the arm than shot in the face, though neither of those options are all that great...)


Sorry, but you are sort of shooting yourself in the foot after blaming me for being vague or ignorant.
The ancient atmosphere was far richer in oxygen, and the organic that turned into fossil fuels did not grow underground, so they had to be above ground, initially. The niche thing? I know we don't like change, but why is all change now, bad, but all change back then was somehow good, even though back then the atmosphere was better?
-- It had more oxygen and screened out more UV rays.
Still, I agree about the last statement. Natural gas still is a fossil fuel -- not as bad, and better than coal.
Where are the dudes with the fusion reactors? Surely the remote chance of turning earth into a star is better than all this problem of humans polluting the atmosphere by breathing. :)


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTH CENTRAL COTTON COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
NORTHWESTERN CLAY COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...
NORTHEASTERN WICHITA COUNTY IN NORTHERN TEXAS...

* UNTIL 730 PM CDT

* AT 700 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 4 MILES SOUTHWEST OF BURKBURNETT...MOVING
NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BURKBURNETT...RANDLETT...CASHION...TAYLOR AND CHARLIE.

...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN
Quoting 949. washingtonian115:

If this is T.D or a T.S then I must live in Japan and not D.C.lol.

It's an ill defined center, though not elongated anymore, it's not enough for it to be declared a tropical cyclone before it gets torn apart.
1051. Grothar


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER CO
600 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN DENVER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
PHILLIPS COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...
SOUTHERN SEDGWICK COUNTY IN NORTHEAST COLORADO...

* UNTIL 630 PM MDT

* AT 600 PM MDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED NEAR PAOLI...OR 8 MILES NORTHWEST OF HOLYOKE...
MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

HAZARD...TORNADO AND PING PONG BALL SIZE HAIL.

SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.

IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
HOLYOKE...PAOLI...MARKS BUTTE...FAIRFIELD AND SIXTEEN-MILE CORNER.
1053. spbloom
Quoting 1045. Birthmark:


Google Scholar even moreso.


WalkingInTheSun doesn't seem to be much of one for surveying and understanding the scientific literature. It's so much more fun just to make stuff up.
Quoting 1047. schistkicker:




That's nice and all, but in order to "undo" the scientific consensus on AGW, you're going to have to propose significant rewrites in the understanding of chemistry,....

No, and I'm not really saying CO2 has nothing to do with GW, either.
I will stop taking up time on this, but will say I do not intend to say there is NO science in what science is going on.
I simply think they need to look with an open mind to things -- that maybe there could be some benefits and that the earth is not as fragile and unable to cope as they think, nor need quite as much human help in ways they don't fully understand yet. Remember the oil-eating microbes used on the GOM oil spill? -- They came from the GOM, originally. There is lots we don't know and I shudder to think how much is intentionally being ignored by people whose science is often not very scientific or complete yet who want to act like gods over everyone in their idealism and view that only they can save us all and should tell all the people what to do. I wonder if that's how Hitler got started? Didn't he try to link all his junk to science, too?


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NORMAN HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
NORTHWESTERN COMANCHE COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...
SOUTHWESTERN CADDO COUNTY IN SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA...

* UNTIL 745 PM CDT

* AT 708 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED 5 MILES WEST OF MEERS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25
MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO AND GOLF BALL SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
BOONE...LAKE LAWTONKA...MEERS...SOUTHWESTERN LAKE ELLSWORTH AND
WICHITA MOUNTAINS WILDLIFE REFUGE.

...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...1.75IN
1057. sar2401
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
well if ya think co2 is bad wait till ya see what the methane is going to do

Eat enough tofu and you'll find out how bad methane gas can be. :-)
1058. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:



Anything actually been reported on the ground yet? There's an awful lot of tornado warnings out there.
1059. spbloom
Quoting 1048. WalkingInTheSun:



Sorry, but you are sort of shooting yourself in the foot after blaming me for being vague or ignorant.
The ancient atmosphere was far richer in oxygen, and the organic that turned into fossil fuels did not grow underground, so they had to be above ground, initially. The niche thing? I know we don't like change, but why is all change now, bad, but all change back then was somehow good, even though back then the atmosphere was better?
-- It had more oxygen and screened out more UV rays.
Still, I agree about the last statement. Natural gas still is a fossil fuel -- not as bad, and better than coal.
Where are the dudes with the fusion reactors? Surely the remote chance of turning earth into a star is better than all this problem of humans polluting the atmosphere by breathing. :)


Yet more spam in the form of incoherent handwaving.
EF 3 Tornado ripping through Church Playground in Tupelo, MS

apparently I forgot how to post videos




Quoting 871. rmbjoe1954:

I see Global Weather Oscillations (out of Ocala) reduced their forcast numbers for 2014 from 17 down to 13-6-2. Their cyclical analysis shows that 2 hurricanes should hit mainland USA even with a WEAK El Nino pattern being set up.

All other predictions indicate a moderate to strong El Nino by summertime so I would expect their numbers to come down in line with all other predictions.









That is a very interesting forecast!

UPDATE: It is also worth mentioning that the US Gulf Coast has been hit by tropical storms and hurricanes several times during El Nino years. It is not unusual to get a tropical storm or hurricane form in the Gulf of Mexico early in the season, during an El Nino year. Hurricane Audrey formed in the Gulf of Mexico during June 1957, and hit the US as a CAT 4!

Examples of early formations of Gulf Coast tropical storms and hurricanes during an El Nino year and/or "slow" hurricane season:

Audrey - June 1957, hit LA/TX
Agnes - June 1972, hit NW FL, NE US
Bonnie - June 1986 hit upper TX coast
Alberto - July 1994 hit FL panhandle
Danny - July 1997, hit mouth of Miss R, LA; Mobile Bay, AL, NW FL
Alberto - June 2006 hit big bend FL
Barry - June 2007 brushed FL W coast


We have been hit by Major Gulf Coast hurricanes during slow hurricane seasons and during El Nino years:

Audrey - 1957 devastates SW LA, SE TX
Betsy - 1965 slammed New Orleans, LA
Beulah - 1967 pummeled S. Texas
Carmen - 1974 hits S. LA
Eloise - 1975 slams FL panhandle, SE AL
Frederic - 1979 clobbers Mobile, AL, and Pascagoula, MS
Alicia - 1983 slams Galveston and Houston, TX
Andrew - 1992 decimates S FL, hits LA

From the mid 1990s up until last year, we have had busier Atlantic hurricane seasons, with more named storms.

So, we will see what happens this year. Just because the total number of storms is lower, we could still get hit. Hope everyone is ready .... every year.
712pm-#Tornado warning N. Comanche Co/S. Caddo Co. If you live north of the Refuge and Meers, TAKE SHELTER IMMEDIATELY #okwx

NWS Norman @NWSNorman

709pm-Spotters report #TORNADO on the ground southwest of Burkburnett!!! Take shelter immediately!!! #txwx #texomawx
Quoting 1055. WalkingInTheSun:


Another post that is breathtaking in its misunderstanding --even of very basic ideas on the topic. For instance, earth's fragility and ability to cope aren't really what's at issue in AGW. Rather, it is how the effects that theEarth's coping mechanisms will have on our civilization that is of concern. No one who seriously studies AGW believes that the Earth itself is in trouble. Life is some trouble; human civilization is in even more trouble.
Quoting 1058. sar2401:


Anything actually been reported on the ground yet? There's an awful lot of tornado warnings out there.


The only one I know that's been confirmed is the one in CO near Highland Center/Clarkville. But other folks (like Doppler) seem to able to track multiple warnings/events with much greater ease than I.

You're right about the warnings - I didn't expect to see this many popping up in different areas.
Quoting 1042. Birthmark:


You're sorry about the only thing you got right? lol


Heh, I can see who drinks coolaide, now, huh?
If it is so personal that such digs are in order, there must be a bit of prejudice and unwillingness to consider anything but the one viewpoint. That seems dangerous, because all you have to go on....is what others tell you. Right?
You didn't do any of the scientific studies, don't likely know any of the scientists, don't know anything much more than what you, the media, and total strangers & politicians are saying. I don't always believe total strangers, and I seriously strain the words of politicians. I have listened to shortwave radio out of cuba & the old soviet empire previously, and it was interesting, since they had a very different slant on things in the news: it was all news, right? Wasn't news news? Isn't truth truth? Depends on whom you hear it from. Please be careful, as not everyone you hear is always totally truthful, totally honest & totally without ulterior motives of any kind.
Quoting 1060. WDEmobmet:

EF 3 Tornado ripping through Church Playground in Tupelo, MS








7:05p radar scan showed 138 mph of gate to gate shear with Burkburnett cell… #tornado on ground at 7:10p.
Quoting 1048. WalkingInTheSun:



Sorry, but you are sort of shooting yourself in the foot after blaming me for being vague or ignorant.
The ancient atmosphere was far richer in oxygen, and the organic that turned into fossil fuels did not grow underground, so they had to be above ground, initially. The niche thing? I know we don't like change, but why is all change now, bad, but all change back then was somehow good, even though back then the atmosphere was better?
-- It had more oxygen and screened out more UV rays.
Still, I agree about the last statement. Natural gas still is a fossil fuel -- not as bad, and better than coal.
Where are the dudes with the fusion reactors? Surely the remote chance of turning earth into a star is better than all this problem of humans polluting the atmosphere by breathing. :)



It actually didn't matter much what the atmospheric oxygen levels are - it's the biota decomposing the biomass that's the key player here. You're still missing this. This is basic carbon cycle / biosphere interaction. Put a sterile woodchip in a pure-oxygen environment - it's not going to decay very quickly. The fossil fuels we're extracting are not 1000 years old, they're 100 million or more. We're not digging into a modern swamp and pulling out anthracite.
And I haven't put a value judgment on these changes. It's not "good" or "bad" for CO2 to cause warming when it's trapped in the atmosphere in the Paleozoic, Mesozoic, or Cenozoic. It's only bad in the sense that Thermodynamics is just doing its thing, same as it ever has, and will keep on doing it. Meanwhile, as a whole society has decided to pretend that we're not doing anything that's affecting the optimal environments that have allowed us to industrialize and grow a population of over 7 billion, in large part because we've got it going great right now. But hey, when you jump off a 30 story building, it's not the fall that kills you, it's the landing.
1068. Patrap
Gulf Breeze water recedes, health concerns rise

With 16 industrial-sized pumps chugging away and another on the way, the city of Gulf Breeze could be 90 percent sucked dry of the nasty, bacteria-filled floodwater by Wednesday afternoon.

"That's our projection," said Thomas Lambert, assistant director of public services. "We got all of our pumps out. Water is going down. And we're just keeping our eyes on the forecast for Friday, Saturday and Sunday. It looks like rain is coming back."

After SWS Environmental Services pumping truck made great headway draining Washington Street on Monday %u2014 at a rate of 9,000 gallons of water per hour %u2014 Lambert says the company is bringing in a second truck today to help suck up pockets of water that aren't draining elsewhere in the city.

He estimates in one area of the city alone, the area bordered by Sunset Boulevard, Fairpoint Drive and roughly Gilmore Street, 163 million gallons of rain water filled the bowl-like area. He's still calculating how much water soaked areas north of Sunset and in the Plantation Hill area.

Until the city dries out, residents will have to deal with the rank smell wafting through their neighborhoods from the decomposing leaves, dirt and yard debris along with raw sewage that's stagnating in the water.

Not only is the smell bad, Santa Rosa County Emergency Management says it's a public health threat, even though public work crews were out spreading lime on the streets and in the water Monday morning to help kill the pathogens.

The water can contain dangerous materials, including debris, chemicals, pesticides and biological waste from septic tank flooding.

"People who have compromised immune systems or have cuts and abrasions could suffer ill effects from that water," said Mary Beverly, Santa Rosa County Health Department spokeswoman. "Bacteria can get into those cuts and abrasions and cause problems."

Hepatitis, E.coli, salmonella and vibrio are among the viruses and parasites in the water, Beverly said.

She joined city and county emergency management officials on Monday strongly urging the public to stay out of the water, if at all possible.

Anyone who comes in contact with the standing waters are urged to shower immediately or wash hands, feet or other contact areas with antibacterial soap or gel often.

When cleaning your home, be sure to wear protective equipment such as gloves and boots to avoid direct contact with contaminated water and throw away all food, including canned goods, that was touched by floodwater.

"It can be difficult to throw away items in a home, particularly those with sentimental value," said county spokeswoman Joy Tsubooka. "However, saving items that have been soaked by floodwater may be unhealthy. In general, materials that cannot be thoroughly cleaned and dried within 24 to 48 hours should be discarded."

Beverly knows people will be wading through the water to salvage their belongings, anyway. And judging by the canoes and rafts floating outside some houses, residents are being forced to navigate through the water to get to vehicles parked in drier areas, or to get their possessions to moving trucks.

They should wear waders and gloves and wash up carefully afterward, Beverly said. And she advises seeking medical care at the first signs of contracting some of the illnesses: skin rashes, diarrhea, fever or vomiting.

Paul Midencey, who lives in a rental house near a hard-hit area off of Fairpoint Drive, is among the residents worried about what's in the water, not just for himself and family, but also for what's being pumped into the surrounding bays.

"I am concerned," he said. "But I don't think they have anywhere else to pump it. There's no other place to put it except into everyone's yards."

He's being cautious by wearing boots when he enters the basement area of his home, which took on six feet of water and had raw sewage floating around.

He's hoping to move his family back in the home someday soon.

"A friend is letting us rent a condo until June 1," he said. "I don't know if our home will be ready by then. The owner of the house is being very, very nice, and I appreciate that. They've already had people come by to put in a new AC. They're ready to start redoing the house, when the water goes down."

Mary Ann Mick wrinkled her nose at the foul smell as she snapped photos of the progress the pumping truck was making on Washington Street, where one of her two rental homes was flooded.

Initially, she was more concerned about the damage the standing water is doing to the houses, which are among the 361 homes flooded in the city, than the damage the water could do to her health.

But when she heard about the public health warnings, she got worried.

"I'm not going to stick my feet in it anymore," she said. "I saw the guys throwing out the lime a few streets over. They were wearing masks. So I called the city and told them please get them to Washington. It's a little stinky."
1069. Patrap



SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 724 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 721 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING DULUTH MN - KDLH 720 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 718 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 715 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 715 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 715 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 709 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 708 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 708 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORTH PLATTE NE - KLBF 602 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 701 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
TORNADO WARNING     DENVER CO - KBOU 600 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
TORNADO WARNING     NORMAN OK - KOUN 700 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
1070. spbloom
Quoting 1055. WalkingInTheSun:



You're probably thinking of Stalin, although the inapt Hitler reference does make for a nice Godwin's Law wrap-up for this "discussion."
Quoting 986. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Alas Subtropical Storm One of 1992.

"On April 21, a low pressure area separated from the prevailing westerlies about 600 miles (1,100 km) southeast of Bermuda, and developed into a subtropical depression at 1200 UTC."



1992 Atlantic Hurricane Season

Andrew should have been called Bonnie
Wait, so climate science is fake, the empirical evidence made up to bolster "their" control and power over "us" due to a desire of godliness AND...Hitler? Oh boy.



*Actual image from inside my climate change propaganda fortress
90E just might make it to TS status before it's untimely demise
Quoting 1059. spbloom:



Yet more spam in the form of incoherent handwaving.


Spam as you see it: logic & reason as I see it.
I cannot fathom that persons so bent on science cannot be science-minded enough to be unbiased or so afraid to use logic & reason. It amazes me. I am not against you all. I simply think that proper science should hold to certain scientific reason and not simply try to neutralize all opposition by force or expulsion, etc. I also don't accept all science claims at face value and all their conclusions at face value, unquestioned, just as they imagine, simply because I'm told to or due to their being a "scientist" & wear a white coat, etc. I like to think for myself and take in all the possibilities without rejecting them blindly.
WTH.... Forget it. I tried to post this video of the Tupelo MS Tornado from last week, but for some reason the blog keeps eating the post.

For those of you interested follow the link below to see it on youtube

Intense to say the least

Tornado Tears through Church Play Ground
Easy to see where all the 'active' areas are that have popped up:

You didn't do any of the scientific studies, don't likely know any of the scientists, don't know anything much more than what you, the media, and total strangers & politicians are saying.

Sure, don't get your science from blogs. That's a good plan, actually. You SHOULD read the scientific literature on the topic. That's where the DATA, and the METHODOLOGY will be, and the results and implications will be discussed, along with many imbedded references to previous work done in the field. Data is not propaganda.

That being said, I have my PhD in the geosciences, and I read that literature, even though it's outside my primary field. I use aspects of thermodynamics in my own work, so I can follow the arguments in the broad-audience journals fairly well. Heck, I can head to work tomorrow and ask a couple physical geographers who do weather and climate modeling what the data are and what they mean, if you'd like. They also have PhDs, and have published in the field.
I'll also be at a couple meetings this fall where I can go shake hands with some of the more prominent climate scientists, if that's what you need. I'll be sure to take a selfie!
1078. Patrap
Quoting 1075. WDEmobmet:

WTH.... Forget it. I tried to post this video of the Tupelo MS Tornado from last week, but for some reason the blog keeps eating the post.

For those of you interested follow the link below to see it on youtube

Intense to say the least

Tornado Tears through Church Play Ground


1079. Patrap
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0127
– Valid until: 05/08/2014 0600Z
– States affected: NE
– Issued: 7 minutes ago
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0126
– Valid until: 05/08/2014 0600Z
– States affected: MN WI
– Issued: 47 minutes ago
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0125
– Valid until: 05/08/2014 0300Z
– States affected: KS
– Issued: 05/07/2014 at 2320Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0124
– Valid until: 05/08/2014 0300Z
– States affected: KS
– Issued: 05/07/2014 at 2210Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0123
– Valid until: 05/08/2014 0300Z
– States affected: OK TX
– Issued: 05/07/2014 at 1920Z
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 0122
– Valid until: 05/08/2014 0200Z
– States affected: CO KS NE WY
– Issued: 05/07/2014 at 1840Z
1080. StormWx
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
This is why people storm chase. Look at this structure on the storm near Henrietta, TX.


(Image credit to Paige Burress)


Thats a cool picture. I'd love to storm chase, what a thrill.
I really hope this synoptic steering regime remains in place throughout the hurricane season. Plains trough/east coast ridge/central Atlantic weakness/eastern Atlantic ridge = one giant teleconnecting pattern that would really make Kori happy. Overall track of the troughs has generally been in the Rockies/central/high plains region, sliding up and under the ridge toward Canada and then off the Canadian Maritimes/New England coasts instead of diving straight eastward across the lower Mississippi Valley and east coast.



Hint: any storm west of 65W would slide under the ridge toward the Gulf proper. I'm really pleased with the 500 mb mean for the month of April.



Unfortunately, El Nino would actually be more likely to enhance east coast troughing instead of ridging, but even 2006 had a persistent east coast ridge through August before the troughing kicked in. Here's to hoping!
Quoting 1072. Naga5000:

Wait, so climate science is fake, the empirical evidence made up to bolster "their" control and power over "us" due to a desire of godliness AND...Hitler? Oh boy.




Kiss a tsunami, Naga.
I am usually rather nice & respectful, coureous, etc., to all, but since some who wear blinders & real tinfoil and constantly cry "the sky is falling" seem bent on being less peaceful, I have stooped for a moment to less than my usual self. :)
At least I don't try to twist other peeps words. I seek to give an honest, thoughtful response.
What will the masses do if nobody can do that & if all plunge along into whatever they are told, without thinking deeply enough. Sure, there is some stuff that looks pretty bleak. Just think of the possibilities. It we don't, we could regret it, later.
1083. sar2401
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
90E just might make it to TS status before it's untimely demise

No, it won't, but it might if you keep hoping.

Quoting 1072. Naga5000:

Wait, so climate science is fake, the empirical evidence made up to bolster "their" control and power over "us" due to a desire of godliness AND...Hitler? Oh boy.

Or you could just say Darth Sidious is pulling the strings from inside Congress, and ten years down the line he'll elevate himself to a much more powerful position.

It sounds more dramatic, anyway.
Quoting 1075. WDEmobmet:

WTH.... Forget it. I tried to post this video of the Tupelo MS Tornado from last week, but for some reason the blog keeps eating the post.

For those of you interested follow the link below to see it on youtube

Intense to say the least

Tornado Tears through Church Play Ground

Share -> Embed -> Check "Use Old Embed Code" and post the code into the comment box.

1086. sar2401
Quoting Naga5000:
Wait, so climate science is fake, the empirical evidence made up to bolster "their" control and power over "us" due to a desire of godliness AND...Hitler? Oh boy.



*Actual image from inside my climate change propaganda fortress

Oohhh...nice oscilloscope...Cool hat too. :-)
1087. spbloom
Quoting 1065. WalkingInTheSun:



Heh, I can see who drinks coolaide, now, huh?
If it is so personal that such digs are in order, there must be a bit of prejudice and unwillingness to consider anything but the one viewpoint. That seems dangerous, because all you have to go on....is what others tell you. Right?
You didn't do any of the scientific studies, don't likely know any of the scientists, don't know anything much more than what you, the media, and total strangers & politicians are saying. I don't always believe total strangers, and I seriously strain the words of politicians. I have listened to shortwave radio out of cuba & the old soviet empire previously, and it was interesting, since they had a very different slant on things in the news: it was all news, right? Wasn't news news? Isn't truth truth? Depends on whom you hear it from. Please be careful, as not everyone you hear is always totally truthful, totally honest & totally without ulterior motives of any kind.


I've met or corresponded with a fair number of climate scientists. Enough of them, including some rather prominent ones, run blogs that would allow you to do the latter, and then there's twitter and old-fashioned email. What was your point again?

"Wasn't news news? Isn't truth truth?"

Ah, did you pick up that joke listening to Soviet radio back in the day? It's a knee-slapper.
Quoting 1065. WalkingInTheSun:



Heh, I can see who drinks coolaide, now, huh?
If it is so personal that such digs are in order, there must be a bit of prejudice and unwillingness to consider anything but the one viewpoint. That seems dangerous, because all you have to go on....is what others tell you. Right?
You didn't do any of the scientific studies, don't likely know any of the scientists, don't know anything much more than what you, the media, and total strangers & politicians are saying. I don't always believe total strangers, and I seriously strain the words of politicians. I have listened to shortwave radio out of cuba & the old soviet empire previously, and it was interesting, since they had a very different slant on things in the news: it was all news, right? Wasn't news news? Isn't truth truth? Depends on whom you hear it from. Please be careful, as not everyone you hear is always totally truthful, totally honest & totally without ulterior motives of any kind.

I'm seeing a lot of words there, but little of any substance. Just a reminder, I am not the topic of discussion. My beverage choices are of no importance.

Your claims are without basis. You're entitled to your feelings, of course. However, you are not entitled to palm them off as anything other than your feelings.
1089. Patrap
..Swoosh, Ahhhhhhhh....


The Climate Change is strong in this one.


Quoting 1081. KoritheMan:

I really hope this synoptic steering regime remains in place throughout the hurricane season. Plains trough/east coast ridge/central Atlantic weakness/eastern Atlantic ridge = one giant teleconnecting pattern that would really make Kori happy.

Hint: any storm west of 65W would slide under the ridge toward the Gulf proper. I'm really pleased with the 500 mb mean for the month of April.



Unfortunately, El Nino would actually be more likely to enhance east coast troughing instead of ridging, but even 2006 had a persistent east coast ridge through August before the troughing kicked in. Here's to hoping!


LOL -I'm reasonably certain that anything related to 'one giant teleconnecting pattern' that makes Kori happy would make Bonnie very unhappy...
Quoting 1082. WalkingInTheSun:



At least I don't try to twist other peeps words. I seek to give an honest, thoughtful response.
What will the masses do if nobody can do that & if all plunge along into whatever they are told, without thinking deeply enough. Sure, there is some stuff that looks pretty bleak. Just think of the possibilities. It we don't, we could regret it, later.


If you want to give us deep thinking, brush up on the carbon cycle. Your comments about the carboniferous era are rather thin.
Quoting 1082. WalkingInTheSun:



Kiss a tsunami, Naga.
I am usually rather nice & respectful, coureous, etc., to all, but since some who wear blinders & real tinfoil and constantly cry "the sky is falling" seem bent on being less peaceful, I have stooped for a moment to less than my usual self. :)
At least I don't try to twist other peeps words. I seek to give an honest, thoughtful response.
What will the masses do if nobody can do that & if all plunge along into whatever they are told, without thinking deeply enough. Sure, there is some stuff that looks pretty bleak. Just think of the possibilities. It we don't, we could regret it, later.


Lucky for me, I think tsunami's are beneficial and spread sunshine and puppy dogs. Did you ever think of the benefits of tsunamis to the people they flood? Or maybe that tsunamis are just made up to make people who live on coastal areas scared of water. I'm just being open minded. Nothing to see here.
Quoting 1077. schistkicker:

You didn't do any of the scientific studies, don't likely know any of the scientists, don't know anything much more than what you, the media, and total strangers & politicians are saying.

Sure, don't get your science from blogs. That's a good plan, actually. You SHOULD read the scientific literature on the topic. That's where the DATA, and the METHODOLOGY will be, and the results and implications will be discussed, along with many imbedded references to previous work done in the field. Data is not propaganda.

That being said, I have my PhD in the geosciences, and I read that literature, even though it's outside my primary field. I use aspects of thermodynamics in my own work, so I can follow the arguments in the broad-audience journals fairly well. Heck, I can head to work tomorrow and ask a couple physical geographers who do weather and climate modeling what the data are and what they mean, if you'd like. They also have PhDs, and have published in the field.
I'll also be at a couple meetings this fall where I can go shake hands with some of the more prominent climate scientists, if that's what you need. I'll be sure to take a selfie!


Good.
So, does that mean that all those scientists who disagree or have some different opinion about anything on the subject or the direction to take in it all....have no degree or knowledge about it?
If they don't, I suppose that would settle it right there. Nice.
Problem is, lots of them have degrees in appropriate fields, too.
Therefore, why is it such a sin to listen to or wonder if maybe, just maybe, they have something -- anything -- to say that might be useful or true? Maybe they are not educated and base their science on nothing? If not, then why the total group lynchings, shout-downs & ear-stopping seen on it all? It doesn't make sense. If they have the proper credentials, then hating their views simply because it is unpopular is not logical or wise, IMO.
1094. ncstorm
Quoting 1027. JRRP:


is not TW


well you may want to let the WPC know that..

Days 3-7 discussion

UPSTREAM...THE LATEST GFS/GEFS RUNS HAVE NOW TRENDED MORE IN LINE
WITH RECENT GUIDANCE FROM THE ECMWF/ECMWF ENSEMBLES AND
UKMET/CANADIAN THAT CONTINUE TO SHOW SHOWED ALLOW AMPLE GULF OF AK
MID-UPPER LEVEL TROUGH ENERGY TO SINK STEADILY SEWD ACROSS THE WRN
US THIS WEEKEND ALONG WITH SIGNIFICANT COOLING AND A SUBSTANTIAL
TERRAIN ENHANCED HEAVY SNOW THREAT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE CENTRAL
ROCKY STATES. THIS SYSTEM DEVELOPS ROBUSTLY OVER THE CENTRAL US
EARLY NEXT WEEK AND INTO THE ERN US NEXT MIDWEEK ALONG WITH WELL
ORGANIZED CYCLO/FRONTO GENESIS AND THE THREAT FOR ENHANCED
CONVECTION/RAINFALL AS GULF MOISTURE AGAIN WORKS INLAND. TROPICAL
WAVE MOISTURE THAT MAY LIFT SLOWLY NWWD TOWARD FL IN ABOUT A WEEK
COULD ALSO THEN ENHANCE RAINFALL.
Quoting 1078. Patrap:






Thank you Patrap

Quoting 1090. LAbonbon:



LOL -I'm reasonably certain that anything related to 'one giant teleconnecting pattern' that makes Kori happy would make Bonnie very unhappy...


;)




7:05p radar scan showed 138 mph of gate to gate shear with Burkburnett cell… #tornado on ground at 7:10p.
Quoting 1051. Grothar:



Gro stop with the GW would ya!!
Quoting 1089. Patrap:

..Swoosh, Ahhhhhhhh....


The Climate Change is strong in this one.





star wars coming out next year
1100. spbloom
Quoting 1074. WalkingInTheSun:



Spam as you see it: logic & reason as I see it.
I cannot fathom that persons so bent on science cannot be science-minded enough to be unbiased or so afraid to use logic & reason. It amazes me. I am not against you all. I simply think that proper science should hold to certain scientific reason and not simply try to neutralize all opposition by force or expulsion, etc. I also don't accept all science claims at face value and all their conclusions at face value, unquestioned, just as they imagine, simply because I'm told to or due to their being a "scientist" & wear a white coat, etc. I like to think for myself and take in all the possibilities without rejecting them blindly.


What makes it handwaving is that you haven't gone to the trouble of familiarizing yourself with the details of most of what you're questioning.
Trained spotter reports pea size hail 4 miles southwest of Windom at 718 PM CDT.
1102. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


The only one I know that's been confirmed is the one in CO near Highland Center/Clarkville. But other folks (like Doppler) seem to able to track multiple warnings/events with much greater ease than I.

You're right about the warnings - I didn't expect to see this many popping up in different areas.

Looks like the SPC didn't expect to see quite so many until about 4 hours ago either. I wonder how many chasers are out today?
starting to get hail reports now
NWS Topeka @NWSTopeka

T-storm moving towards Leonardville in Riley CO has a history of golfball size hail and strong winds.
Quoting 1093. WalkingInTheSun:



Good.
So, does that mean that all those scientists who disagree or have some different opinion about anything on the subject or the direction to take in it all....have no degree or knowledge about it?
If they don't, I suppose that would settle it right there. Nice.
Problem is, lots of them have degrees in appropriate fields, too.
Therefore, why is it such a sin to listen to or wonder if maybe, just maybe, they have something -- anything -- to say that might be useful or true? Maybe they are not educated and base their science on nothing? If not, then why the total group lynchings, shout-downs & ear-stopping seen on it all? It doesn't make sense. If they have the proper credentials, then hating their views simply because it is unpopular is not logical or wise, IMO.


Sure, scientists disagree. A lot. It's what we do, generally. Scientists scour eachother's work and look for weaknesses, perhaps error in the construction, or misreading the datasets, or whatnot.

Here's the thing - the scientists with relevant degrees who are contrarians... they don't publish much. They're not terribly active, as a whole. And those that do... well, it turns out that they've under-analyzed the data, or forgotten to include items that must be included, or misrepresented what they were attempting to present, often in journals that are low-impact or not at all related to climate science.

You seem to have a very strange understanding of scientific processes AND the process of science itself. Look, there's no shame in being ignorant - we are all ignorant about many things. But instead of showing signs of educating yourself when people point out where you're mistaken, you're insistent that your feelings are as important as data. Down that path lies willful ignorance, and there IS shame in that.
There's one thing over the tears and years I've learned about the deniers , they believe that if they choose an avatar like : "Seekingonlythetruth". It makes their poor education opaque. Then they can tell everyone on the web why only they seek the truth , beauty, and the American way.
Quoting 1071. opal92nwf:


Andrew should have been called Bonnie
Nahhh Bonnie is not deserving of that title. see 2010 Bonnie. :P
1107. Patrap


Republicans React to Climate Change Report With Denial and Hatred

By: Rmusemore from Rmuse
Wednesday, May, 7th, 2014, 8:18 pm

Empiricism emphasizes evidence in the formation of ideas as discovered in experiments over the absurd notion of innate ideas or religious traditions. Empiricism is a fundamental part of the scientific method that all hypotheses and theories must be tested against observations of the natural world rather than resting solely on a priori reasoning, intuition, religious superstition, or revelations from god. Empiricism is the polar opposite of tradition, superstition, or something a person wants to believe is true, or is told is true by interests attempting to mitigate empirical data for profit, power, and control. Republicans, the dirty energy industry, and evangelical Christians detest empiricism like it was Satan or bubonic plague because it eviscerates their strongly held “beliefs” whether they are borne of religion, economic fallacy, or greed. It is why Republicans, evangelical extremists, and dirty energy hates science and spends an inordinate amount of time and money portraying science and scientific research as inherently evil.

One area religious sycophants, the dirty energy industry, and Republicans are in complete agreement and denial over is global climate change, and why America as a global leader in science and technology should continue discouraging clean and renewable energy sources and oppose actions to reduce emissions responsible for climate change. When the White House released a regularly-scheduled scientific report awash in empirical data that climate change is a real and present man-made danger, it was little surprise that the Republican and Koch brothers’ media outlet Fox News disparaged the report as a distraction from Fox and Republicans’ debunked Benghazi distraction. It is not the first, or the last, time Fox dutifully dismissed climate change as part of its contractual commitment to perpetuate whatever GOP and Koch lies will scam their audience. One thing is clear though; they may have difficulty convincing some Americans who experienced the very real consequences of climate change that the scientific report detailed and warned will get much, much worse is a hoax.

What the White House report revealed that other scientific research only predicted was the effects all Americans experienced from extreme weather events whether it is extreme droughts, extreme flooding, extreme rains, and intense heat devastating major areas of America. The report also detailed rising sea levels, melting glaciers and Arctic sea ice, and increased ocean acidity, but those Earth shattering effects are outside the cognitive abilities of the people most likely to claim global climate change is a hoax. What is not a hoax are the economic consequences Americans have already felt from extreme weather events like more powerful tornados and hurricanes, extreme heat, and devastating droughts that are predicted to drive food and drinking water costs out of reach of many Americans.

One of the purposes of The National Climate Assessment compiled by the US Global Change Research Program is revealing the economic as well as environmental threats to America now and in the future; White House special advisor John Podesta hoped the latest assessment would convince Republicans to take the climate change threat seriously. Podesta’s hope is altruistic, but he confuses Republicans with politicians that care about the economic, environmental, and health concerns of the people because Republicans will not change. Republicans are conservatives that are innately resistant to change; particularly when their evangelical voting bloc and dirty energy funding machine demands they continue thwarting efforts to reduce global climate change’s effects on Americans.

Obviously, the dirty energy industry could not care less about the effects of global climate change and in fact, go to extreme lengths to oppose measures to reduce carbon and methane emissions responsible for the warming oceans. At the behest of the Koch brothers and ALEC, House Republicans passed a bill that strictly forbade the Environmental Protection Agency from inspecting or regulating dirty energy polluters in the states. The Kochs have spent tens-of-millions of dollars, and ALEC has written hundreds of pieces of model legislation, to eliminate clean and renewable energy standards in the states and provided funding for ballot initiatives in California to eviscerate the state’s environmental protections and clean air standards. It is not that the Kochs, or any dirty energy interest, cannot afford to meet clean air standards, they just want unimpeded profits; destroying the climate and environment is a consequence they are happy to live with. For the religious right, reducing the effects of climate change has nothing to do with money and everything to do with god.

The religious right fully understands that man-made climate change is a serious threat to the economy, environment, and well-being of Americans; especially those in the bible-belt that have felt climate change’s full effects the scientific study reported were already happening. However, one faction is convinced that either god controls the climate and climate scientists are apostates to claim extreme weather is man-made, or that god will destroy the Earth on his own terms during end times just over the horizon. In fact in a study last May entitled “End-Times Theology, the Shadow of the Future, and Public Resistance to Addressing Global Climate Change,” researchers found that support for governmental action on climate change is woefully lacking because “believers in Christian end-times theology are unlikely to support policies designed to curb global warming than are other Americans.” The study’s authors provided empirical evidence that evangelical fanatics resist policies trading short-term costs for hypothetical long-term benefits because god is destroying the Earth shortly so why bother.

Overall, Americans are less inclined to care about global climate change than residents of the top 13 richest developed nations in the world according to a Pew Research Study finding the majority of Americans (60%) are skeptical that climate change is a dire issue or a threat to the nation. This is in spite of the effects of human-induced climate change being felt in every corner of America with severe droughts and water scarcity, torrential rains in wet regions, severe heat and longer summers becoming commonplace, increasingly worse wildfires, and entire forests dying from drought and heat loving insects. Only 40% of Americans think climate change is an issue worth addressing and it certainly is a result of the dirty energy industry, Republican, and religious right’s perpetual harping that climate change is an atheistic America-hating hoax perpetrated by godless scientists and socialists panting to destroy the dirty energy industry and by extension the United States of America.

According to the climate change report, empirical data proves beyond a shadow of a doubt that “Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present,” and there are no Americans who have not experienced, firsthand, the effects the research reported is already affecting the country economically and environmentally. It hardly matters whether it is evangelical freaks waiting for god to smite Earth, dirty energy sycophants demanding an end to environmental protections, or inherently stupid Americans unable to reconcile what they experience with empirical data proving climate change is the culprit, this country will do nothing to reduce climate change.

Despite the religious right or profit-driven dirty energy industry climate change deniers culpability in obstructing attempts to reduce the effects of climate change, it is Americans’ arrogance that because America is exceptional, it has no accountability or responsibility to reduce the damage this country is responsible for. If nothing else, the simple fact that the devastating report was issued from the White House with a Black man in residence will automatically incite the entire conservative movement to dismiss it out of hand and redouble their efforts to thwart any attempt to save this country from environmental devastation that man made and god cannot rectify.
Quoting 1038. schistkicker:



OK, you seem to be arguing from what you 'feel' is right or 'want' to be right, as the use of "likely" is attached to an oversimplified argument that just doesn't hold up. The coal we're extracting now is coming from rock layers 200-300 million years old, which is when that carbon was sequestered (and there were far, far fewer species of decomposers, especially fungi, around back then to break the carbon down prior to it becoming buried sufficiently deeply to sequester it geologically). Additionally, it was a much warmer climate back then, in part due to the really high CO2 levels, and there were lots of tropical lowlands to grow lots and lots of biomass in. If you want the organic carbon of plant life to remain outside the atmosphere, you have to prevent the carbon that makes it up from being oxidized. That means no decomposition in the topsoil, that means -really- rapid burial before it oxidizes. Just the tree falling in the woods won't do it. You have to get it buried deep in the soil profile. The proliferation of fungi in the modern world is one reason why the process doesn't exactly work the way you're envisioning it. Nature found a niche that wasn't being exploited, and now it is - and so the world won't behave exactly the same way now as it did in the Paleozoic.

Natural gas is a stopgap; it's not a long-term solution. Natural gas is a fossil fuel, just as coal and oil are. Burning natural gas still releases CO2 into the atmosphere as a byproduct, it's just not as much as coal or oil. (I guess if you asked me, I'd rather get stabbed in the arm than shot in the face, though neither of those options are all that great...)


Schistkicker - Huh. I consider myself reasonably well-read, and was aware of the 'needs to get buried' before decomposition idea, but the difference of no-fungi vs. fungi for the Paleozoic vs. the present escaped me. Likely learned it in a course way back when, but apparently it didn't stick.

Ever consider doing a blog? Your information is always quite interesting.
1109. Patrap
Why wunder sar when you can google dat from yer temple mount lazy boy recliner?



Chaser TV
Quoting 845. StormTrackerScott:



School in session. 1 foot deficit just in 2011 alone!

Source:http://www.geo.utexas.edu/courses/371c/pro ject/2011/SenisonFinalProject.pdf

Reading back on the blog...

Just going to give my side of the Texas Drought.
And yes, we were in a deficit of a foot or more of rain in 2011.
But we have recovered for brief periods of time from the drought, most recently in October 2013 when we had massive flooding in some regions of central Texas due to excessive rainfall.
The drought information for South and Central Texas as of May 1, 2014.
And the Lake Information as of April 20, 2014


Though Northwest Texas is in very bad shape, with the risk of some reservoirs and towns drying up, the references to "Texas" and regions of the state, other than western Texas, being in serious trouble due to large rain deficits as large as two feet is not accurate to the current magnitude of the drought in Texas.
Yes, the lakes are lower than we would like them to be, including Lake Travis, but that is something we've been worrying about for years, it won't be changing much with a warm neutral/El Nino Summer.
I only wanted to mention this conversation to give my side of the story, being an actual Texan and all.
Just hoping that the light appears at the end of the tunnel this Winter.
The Weather Channel Article about the central Texas flooding
1111. Patrap
Ever consider doing a blog?

I did, over 400, and all I got was a Lousy case of Fresca.
1112. Xulonn
Quoting 535. TylerStanfield:


It won't be considered an El Niño event until August.
And that's if we maintain sst anomalies of +.5C for the rest of this month.
The indexes may say that conditions are prime for a strong El Niño right now, but we won't be able to declare it as one until we have three consecutive months of El Niño conditions. So even if we begin seeing anomalies of +1C in June, it still won't be an official El Niño by the climate prediction center. Though I do agree, all 4 regions are already on the verge of the El Niño threshold, and will continue to warm to higher levels through the summer Months.
Hey Tyler, isn't it critical for wind anomalies to coordinate with the warm pool to help it surface and create an El Nino?

I keep reading at weather science sites about Walker Cells and the necessity for the winds at the equator to reverse, or that big body of warm water might simply disperse rather than surfacing.

Why do you think otherwise knowledgeable people here at Dr. Masters' blog seem to ignore the wind requirement aspect, and the dynamics that drive the wind factor?
1113. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 758 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 756 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
TORNADO WARNING     HASTINGS NE - KGID 754 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014


THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN HASTINGS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
SOUTHEASTERN DAWSON COUNTY IN SOUTH CENTRAL NEBRASKA...

* UNTIL 830 PM CDT

* AT 753 PM CDT...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A
TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER LEXINGTON...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 35 MPH.
HAZARD...TORNADO AND TENNIS BALL SIZE HAIL.
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED ROTATION.
IMPACT...FLYING DEBRIS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO THOSE CAUGHT WITHOUT
SHELTER. MOBILE HOMES WILL BE DAMAGED OR DESTROYED.
DAMAGE TO ROOFS...WINDOWS AND VEHICLES WILL OCCUR. TREE
DAMAGE IS LIKELY.

* THIS DANGEROUS STORM WILL BE NEAR...
NEAR LEXINGTON NOW..

...RADAR INDICATED
HAIL...2.50IN
1115. spbloom
Quoting 1093. WalkingInTheSun:



Good.
So, does that mean that all those scientists who disagree or have some different opinion about anything on the subject or the direction to take in it all....have no degree or knowledge about it?
If they don't, I suppose that would settle it right there. Nice.
Problem is, lots of them have degrees in appropriate fields, too.
Therefore, why is it such a sin to listen to or wonder if maybe, just maybe, they have something -- anything -- to say that might be useful or true? Maybe they are not educated and base their science on nothing? If not, then why the total group lynchings, shout-downs & ear-stopping seen on it all? It doesn't make sense. If they have the proper credentials, then hating their views simply because it is unpopular is not logical or wise, IMO.


Lots of them? Nope, hardly any. You can confirm that yourself by attending one of the conferences schistkicker referenced. The biggest one has over 10,000 geoscientists in attendance.

To the extent they (meaning people like Christy and Lindzen) get shouted down, it's because their research results were wrong, not just once or twice but persistently.

A key point you seem not to want to understand is that in the science biz one gets famous by either doing important cutting-edge work or by overturning a key finding. Scientists are constantly looking for flaws to highlight.

1110. TylerStanfield -

Check out the big brain on TylerStanfield.
Pat #1107 expected from that side. Oh and LAbonbon hopefully you're not offended by that post. :D
1118. Patrap
Select Live Video by: Dwayne Kear
@ChaserTV Severe Thunderstorm Watch for portions of Oklahoma and Texas until 10pm CDT. http://t.co/glX59mZ74w

for a Good wall cloud video,LIVE
1119. sar2401
Quoting SuperCellTornadoes:
Oh dear! This is hilarious!!

http://www.wunderground.com/news/fake-overused-we ather-photos-20140421

The last one cracks me up! lol

They are funny, but no one will find them because you didn't use the "Link" function here, and this site often breaks long links that you just copy and paste. Someday, maybe by the time we know for sure all about global warming, this site may use software that can actually detect a pasted link and format it as such. I'm going to start holding my breath in 3...2...1... :-)
1120. yoboi
Quoting 1036. FLwolverine:
If you read the article on the Amazon I linked to earlier, you find that a lot of the carbon does go back into the atmosphere quickly. You might also read the article CO2 is a Plant Food over at SkepticalScience. There's an explanation on which types of plants are benefited by extra CO2 and which aren't, with links to the studies. I've seen a number of studies in this area discussed lately, usually in the context of "oh, farming will just keep moving north if temperatures rise." You can find out a lot about plants and increasing CO2 levels if you just look. Google is really your friend here.




My Google leads me to real science......
Quoting spbloom:


What makes it handwaving is that you haven't gone to the trouble of familiarizing yourself with the details of most of what you're questioning.
This!
1122. Patrap
Quoting 1117. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Pat #1107 expected from that side. Oh and LAbonbon hopefully you're not offended by that post. :D



O I know, but I like to bring the facts forward as FOX haz been going sterling stark Raving Benghazi over it since Monday .

We need some engineers and actual scientists in Congress. Both sides really.

Delay does not favor the Human tribe when it comes to reducing CO2 Emissions.





1123. Patrap
Quoting 1120. yoboi:



My Google leads me to real science......




Share your "Science Google" with us, pleeeeaaassssse'


Real Tomato Google Science Yoboi?




Nuttin but da best fer you patrap!!

1125. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

SVR T-STORM WARNING DENVER CO - KBOU 712 PM MDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 811 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
TORNADO WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 810 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Quoting yoboi:


My Google leads me to real science......
Congratulations. We'll look forward to seeing some posted.
Quoting 1117. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Pat #1107 expected from that side. Oh and LAbonbon hopefully you're not offended by that post. :D


If you're referring to #1106, not at all. (For a moment there I thought you were lumping me in w/ #1107...)
1128. Patrap


CO2 Levels Stay Above 400 PPM Throughout April, First Time Ever in Human History

By: Andrea Thompson
Published: April 30, 2014


The first measurement in excess of 400 ppm was made on May 9, 2013. This year, the level rose above that mark a full two months earlier, and has remained above 400 ppm steadily since the beginning of April. While the milestone is largely a symbolic one, it does illustrate how far emissions have risen from their preindustrial levels of 280 ppm.
1110. TylerStanfield -

Remember this :

As a system nears a tipping point, it takes wild swings to the extremes . Let's take Lubbock for example . In 2010 it saw one of the wettest years ever, until Sept. 11 - 12. That was the most intense rainfall ever measured at that station . The POR begins in 1910 . Then this drought in Texas began.

It was like a knife cutting the head off a snake. In 2008 it rained 18 inches at Marble Falls in 6 hours.
As a system nears a tipping point, it takes wild swings to the extremes .
Quoting 1122. Patrap:




O I know, but I like to bring the facts forward as FOX haz been going sterling stark Raving Benghazi over it since Monday .

We need some engineers and actual scientists in Congress. Both sides really.

Delay does not favor the Human tribe when it comes to reducing CO2 Emissions.








Weeell, Pat, our governor has a degree in biology :D
Quoting 1130. LAbonbon:



Weeell, Pat, our governor has a degree in biology :D


Haha, does he really?
1132. Patrap
2014, The Year the Forcing's Strike Back

1133. Patrap
Quoting 1130. LAbonbon:



Weeell, Pat, our governor has a degree in biology :D


I am impressed.

: P
My Google leads me to real science......

We all are so thrilled you found google.
Quoting 1112. Xulonn:

Hey Tyler, isn't it critical for wind anomalies to coordinate with the warm pool to help it surface and create an El Nino?

I keep reading at weather science sites about Walker Cells and the necessity for the winds at the equator to reverse, or that big body of warm water might simply disperse rather than surfacing.

Why do you think otherwise knowledgeable people here at Dr. Masters' blog seem to ignore the wind requirement aspect, and the dynamics that drive the wind factor?

As we've witnessed over the past 3 months with the first strong kelvin wave, that an El Nino doesn't just happen.
It takes consecutive westerly wind bursts and a solid warm pool in the subsurface to correlate with these reversals in trade winds to allow for this warming to commence and continue through an El Nino event.
Along with these westerly bursts, we have periods in between them that allow for things to cool and reverse, acting like a waves.
One thing to note for the reasoning that the warm pool doesn't disperse out is primarily through the basis of trade winds, which is the Coriolis effect.

When these winds turn westerly, against the traditional easterly flow, it usually either results in just slowing down the easterly trades, or allow for brief periods of westerly winds through the region.
I haven't read up enough on the changes that westerly wind bursts have on the typical trades and wind flow in the region, but that is the idea of it, anyway.



7:20p CDT. MT Possible tornado touchdown near Boone, Ok.

here is a picture of the tornado
Quoting 1089. Patrap:

..Swoosh, Ahhhhhhhh....


The Climate Change is strong in this one.





Are these a new line of Burkas?
8:20p CDT: This storm dropped baseball #hail and downed a large tree in Lexington, NE around 8pm
Quoting 1131. KoritheMan:



Haha, does he really?


Indeed he does. Brown University. But apparently his former advisor does not agree w/ his science education policies.

I'd love to see him and Neil deGrasse Tyson have a debate/discussion on almost any scientific or science policy topic.
Which one of these do you guys like best? I'm debating on changing my current color table (the second image), but don't know which one I like more.


1142. sar2401
Quoting schistkicker:


Sure, scientists disagree. A lot. It's what we do, generally. Scientists scour eachother's work and look for weaknesses, perhaps error in the construction, or misreading the datasets, or whatnot.

Here's the thing - the scientists with relevant degrees who are contrarians... they don't publish much. They're not terribly active, as a whole. And those that do... well, it turns out that they've under-analyzed the data, or forgotten to include items that must be included, or misrepresented what they were attempting to present, often in journals that are low-impact or not at all related to climate science.

You seem to have a very strange understanding of scientific processes AND the process of science itself. Look, there's no shame in being ignorant - we are all ignorant about many things. But instead of showing signs of educating yourself when people point out where you're mistaken, you're insistent that your feelings are as important as data. Down that path lies willful ignorance, and there IS shame in that.

It's the oxygen. Back in the paleolithic, when we had purer oxygen, and lots of it, you science guys were a lot smarter. Now, with this low amount of polluted, crummy oxygen, science has just fallen off a cliff. There's no denying it. Fact is fact.
#Severe t'storm watch until 1am CDT for parts of Nebraska & Iowa incl
1144. pottery
Quoting Patrap:
Ever consider doing a blog?

I did, over 400, and all I got was a Lousy case of Fresca.

There's pills for that…….
1145. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Which one of these do you guys like best? I'm debating on changing my current color table (the second image), but don't know which one I like more.



Bottom (second) image is easier on geezer eyes. :-)
1147. sar2401
Quoting pottery:

There's pills for that…….

Well, it was a Coke, and now it's all over the screen. Thanks a lot...
90E seems to be wrapping up quicker

1149. Patrap
Climate change report warns of frantic future for Florida

Chad Gillis, cgillis@news-press.com 2:32 p.m. EDT May 7, 2014

A federal report released Tuesday shows much of South Florida could experience dramatic, damaging effects of climate change and rising sea levels within just a few decades.

The Third National Climate Assessment, compiled by more than 300 national experts over the last three years, says climate change threatens Florida's tourism industry, water supply and public health. Sea levels will rise between 1 to 4 feet by 2100.

Part of President Obama's Climate Action Plan, the report says Florida is extremely vulnerable. Floods may become more frequent, even in areas where overall precipitation is expected to decline.

Few states as vulnerable to climate change as Florida

"We're in climate change, it's already here," said Jim Beever with the Southwest Florida Regional Planning Council. "It's been going on my whole life, even the life of my parents. This didn't just start happening in the 1980s. It started when people started removing trees from Africa and turning the area into deserts. All of that causes climate change."

Beever said Fort Myers residents can expect shifts in rainfall patterns, crop losses and flooding in the downtown district along the south bank of the Caloosahatchee River. Some cities and counties have been planning for climate change for years. Beever said people will be able to live in the ecologically altered Southwest Florida, but that Fort Myers may be a city of gondolas and front-porch fishing.


Vulnerability to Sea Level Rise(Photo: globalchange.gov)

"In 2100, we'll still be here," Beever said. "We'll be here in 2200 and 2300 and 2400, but it will look different. You're going to have higher water levels that we have today. Certainly, the barrier islands will change shape when they can."

Report: Global warming disrupting Americans' lives

Locally, sea level rise is expected to cause a myriad of problems: increased tropical storm strength and frequency, infrastructure failures and shifts in rainfall patterns and growing seasons, according to the federal report.

Beever said climate change has been evident in Southwest Florida for more than half a century.

"The saltmarshes have already moved. They've moved about the length of a football field since the 1950s," Beever said. "Habitats will migrate. Where habitat is blocked by sea walls, the habitat will be gone. There's going to be major road problems. The approaches to bridges will go underwater first. The Sanibel causeway is built to accommodate some sea level rise, but the approaches will be underwater."

Beever said Punta Gorda is one of the most prepared cities in Florida. Community leaders there began to plan for climate change and sea level rise nearly a decade ago. Heading advice from Beever and others, the city relocated the construction site for its new public works office — moving the location inland, which may save the city millions of dollars down the road.

"They're a progressive community," Beever said. "They want to build better, not just the same."

Climate change also has the attention of the National Park Service, which oversees Everglades National Park and Big Cypress National Preserve — about 2 million acres of South Florida wild lands.

Everglades acts

Linda Friar, with Everglades National Park, said managers there implemented a climate change planning practice that encourages scientists and others working at the park to plan for a different Florida in the future. Any new investments in infrastructure must include a sea level risk assessment, she said.

"Ecologically, concerns over saltwater intrusion may impact water supply in the park," Friar said. "The brackish water is home to a variety of creatures, and that may move further inland. If it happens slowly, a resilient, healthy system can manage that change over time as they have for centuries. It's the sudden change that could be more challenging and potentially devastating."

The report wasn't news to everyone.

"The climate report is a synopsis of reports that have been out a while, and other than the U.S., those reports seem to be taken seriously," said Wayne Daltry, former planner for the state and Lee County. "The biggest issue facing us for short term isn't sea level rise, it is weather change/rainfall patterns that cause drought and flooding in ways our tailored crops cannot adapt to quickly enough."

U.S. Sen. Bill Nelson, D-Orlando, says climate-change deniers have successfully cast the phenomenon as a subject for debate as opposed to scientific fact. He says a political solution is elusive in a divided Congress and that drastic steps by the government aren't possible until the public is "agitated" enough to demand action.

Republican Sen. Marco Rubio, a Republican from West Miami, said he too is worried about the impact of severe weather on his home state.

But he said hurricanes have been around for "hundreds of years" and isn't convinced severe weather is the result of man-made conditions, as the vast majority of^ @scientists conclude. He also warns that the Obama administration may try to use the new report to boost a political agenda that would "devastate" the American economy.

"Even if scientists concluded that, in fact, our modern way of living in the 21st century is the only cause of changes to our climate, I would ask what policy changes are they recommending that would actually reverse that, when the largest polluters in the world -- China, India and underdeveloped countries -- have no interest in making any changes whatsoever," he said Tuesday. "So why should we eviscerate our own economy if it would have no impact whatsoever on these things that they're raising a concern about?"

Some findings from the Third U.S. National Climate Assessment:

Effects

• Tourism: "Climate change impacts on tourism and recreation will vary significantly by region. For instance, some of Florida's top tourist attractions, including the Everglades and Florida Keys, are threatened by sea level rise, with estimated revenue losses of $9 billion by 2025 and $40 billion by the 2050s." (NCA, Ch. 14: Rural Communities)

• Health: "Atlanta, Miami, New Orleans, and Tampa have already had increases in the number of days with temperatures exceeding 95ºF, during which the number of deaths is above average. Higher temperatures also contribute to the formation of harmful air pollutants and allergens. Ground-level ozone is projected to increase in the 19 largest urban areas of the Southeast, leading to an increase in deaths." (NCA, Ch. 17: Southeast)

• Ecosystems: "Coral reefs in the Southeast and Caribbean, as well as worldwide, are susceptible to climate change, especially warming waters and ocean acidification, whose impacts are exacerbated when coupled with other stressors, including disease, runoff, over-exploitation, and invasive species. (NCA, Ch. 17: Southeast)

Examples of Efforts Underway in Florida

• Mechanisms being used by local governments to prepare for climate change include: land-use planning; provisions to protect infrastructure and ecosystems; regulations related to the design and construction of buildings, road, and bridges; and preparation for emergency response and recovery.

• Investing in Clean Energy: Since President Obama took office, the U.S. increased solar-electricity generation by more than ten-fold and tripled electricity production from wind power. Since 2009, the Administration has supported tens of thousands of renewable energy projects throughout the country, including more than 1,378 in Florida, generating enough energy to power more than 17,000 homes.

• President Barack Obama established the toughest fuel economy standards for passenger vehicles in U.S. history. These standards will double the fuel efficiency of our cars and trucks by 2025, saving the average driver more than $8,000 over the lifetime of a 2025 vehicle and cutting carbon pollution.

The News-Press Washington Correspondent Ledyard King contributed to this report.
Quoting 1141. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which one of these do you guys like best? I'm debating on changing my current color table (the second image), but don't know which one I like more.





Second one looks sexier.
1151. pottery
Quoting sar2401:

Well, it was a Coke, and now it's all over the screen. Thanks a lot...


Anytime.
1152. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:

Boy, there's nothing more impressive, or scarier, than big thunderstorms just after dark around North Platte. Got to ride Amtrak in 1972 on the Super Chief across Nebraska during that time of day, with thunderstorms on every side, watching from the darkened dome car. It almost made me forget that the A/C didn't work and all the toilets were backed up. ;-)
Quoting 1145. sar2401:


Bottom (second) image is easier on geezer eyes. :-)


I was thinking the top one. Seems 'cleaner', and shows more than the bottom one (the bottom one seems to 'lose' some areas). But that's just my opinion.
1154. Patrap
Climate Change Is Happening, Here and Now
Scientific studies in recent weeks illustrate the hypothetical is real.



Climate change has arrived and is making itself known.
It’s been an extraordinary six weeks for climate scientists. Any lingering doubts about the immediacy of climate impacts on the lives of Americans are now permanently laid to rest, thanks to four extensive reports from thousands of scientists.

It began with a straight-talking, no-nonsense report called “What We Know” from the world’s largest general science organization (AAAS) earlier this spring that laid out in clear detail why the entire scientific community no longer has any doubts whatsoever about the nature and extent of the climate risk to our economy and communities.

Weeks later, the second and third of successive reports from different arms of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) issued separate, detailed reports on the current science around climate change impacts in the world, and the potential costs to society and the economy right now if we don’t change our energy patterns.

Plenty mo'...
What a difference three months makes.
February 6th, 2014


May 5th, 2014



watch out here!!
Quoting 1105. ColoradoBob1:

There's one thing over the tears and years I've learned about the deniers , they believe that if they choose an avatar like : "Seekingonlythetruth". It makes their poor education opaque. Then they can tell everyone on the web why only they seek the truth , beauty, and the American way.

First Bob, thanks for the long record of great posts ..to follow up with the thought. What is the biggest mystery bar none to me: How can the deniers know (if they do) that we daily, plunder, pillage, deforest, extract, pollute, poison, etc. the planet and there would not be consequences? A weather pattern disruption instinctively, with no science what-so-ever, I believe a class of show and tell with 3rd graders would get a unanmious thumbs up..

My greatest fear..as the above is obvious..are the unkowns in Keeps ..'Faster and Faster.'
1159. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


Weeell, Pat, our governor has a degree in biology :D

My governor's a doctor, so there...:-)
Quoting 1151. pottery:



Anytime.

Just when I thought it was safe in here!! Good evening Sir Pottery..(in dahood tradition)
Temperature fell from 90º to 69º in 7 minutes after that 82-mph gust hit San Angelo, TX at 8:22pm CDT


@NWSFortWorth

Thunderstorms are on the increase and will begin to affect N TX by 10 PM.

BREAKING: This storm just produced an 82-mph wind gust at the San Angelo TX airport at 8:22p CDT
The turn in Texas -

Cargill beef processing plant to lay off 2,000 in Plainview
Closure could mean loss of $1.1 billion in economic activity

Posted: January 17, 2013 - 1:47pm


The world can swing really fast now. My uncle had a farm at Hale Center , just a few miles away . His was the king of his domain . I remember the sound of his irrigation engines running all night . It was like shooting buffalo, we would never run dry.
Quoting 1152. sar2401:


Boy, there's nothing more impressive, or scarier, than big thunderstorms just after dark around North Platte. Got to ride Amtrak in 1972 on the Super Chief across Nebraska during that time of day, with thunderstorms on every side, watching from the darkened dome car. It almost made me forget that the A/C didn't work and all the toilets were backed up. ;-)


That just sounds....really, really gross :(

NWS San Angelo @NWSSanAngelo

Severe Thunderstorm Warning for the following counties:Irion, Sterling and Tom Green til 9:15PM

lots of severe weather tonight
1165. Patrap
As I predicted, 2013 was the Global "Awakening" as to the dangers of Climate change and its forcing's on the Global Weather.


How do we get off Oil ?
By: Patrap , 3:28 PM CST on February 21, 2014




2014 will see the Global Social Consciousness rise even higher as the Events pile up upon one another.
1166. yoboi
Quoting 1093. WalkingInTheSun:


Good.
So, does that mean that all those scientists who disagree or have some different opinion about anything on the subject or the direction to take in it all....have no degree or knowledge about it?
If they don't, I suppose that would settle it right there. Nice.
Problem is, lots of them have degrees in appropriate fields, too.
Therefore, why is it such a sin to listen to or wonder if maybe, just maybe, they have something -- anything -- to say that might be useful or true? Maybe they are not educated and base their science on nothing? If not, then why the total group lynchings, shout-downs & ear-stopping seen on it all? It doesn't make sense. If they have the proper credentials, then hating their views simply because it is unpopular is not logical or wise, IMO.



Well 92.8% of the scientist agree that humans can NOT impact the climate more than 10%....
1167. Patrap
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 840 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING NORMAN OK - KOUN 839 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
SVR T-STORM WARNING SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 839 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
TORNADO WARNING     HASTINGS NE - KGID 832 PM CDT WED MAY 7 2014
Quoting 1155. TylerStanfield:

What a difference three months makes.
February 6th, 2014


May 5th, 2014



As long as the western Atlantic warm pool shifts more toward the Gulf of Mexico as is happening in those images, I'll be a happy man.
Test #2 with the Joplin EF5.




Quoting 1148. wunderkidcayman:

90E seems to be wrapping up quicker



Dislocated center.

1170. Patrap
Quoting 1166. yoboi:




Well 92.8% of the scientist agree that humans can NOT impact the climate more than 10%....


That is ridiculous, as you never have shown us the data to support that crazy sentence.

SO put up, or slink way.
Quoting 1166. yoboi:




Well 92.8% of the scientist agree that humans can NOT impact the climate more than 10%....
Link?
1172. pottery
Quoting Wolfberry:

It's a mistake to let your guard down around here you know. It's never really safe.

It's been hotter than you-know-what around here, with fires and smoke on the hills adding to the Misery.
Looks like we will have another month of this too, if my reading of the Signs and Portents are correct.
1173. sar2401
Quoting ColoradoBob1:
The turn in Texas -

Cargill beef processing plant to lay off 2,000 in Plainview
Closure could mean loss of $1.1 billion in economic activity

Posted: January 17, 2013 - 1:47pm


The world can swing really fast now. My uncle had a farm at Hale Center , just a few miles away . His was the king of his domain . I remember the sound of his irrigation engines running all night . It was like shooting buffalo, we would never run dry.

The Cargill plant closing was over a year ago, Bob. It was in the first episode of "The Years of Living Dangerously".
I swear reading this blog makes me dumber
1175. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Test #2 with the Joplin EF5.

Still like #2. Bonnie will still like #1, so our votes will cancel each other out. :-)
1176. pottery
Quoting yoboi:



Well 92.8% of the scientist agree that humans can NOT impact the climate more than 10%....

You really ought to try not to make those sorts of comments……..
1177. ricderr

Quoting 1159. sar2401:


My governor's a doctor, so there...:-)
My govs a weather blogger....talks a lot but when you fact check him...he's full of crap....ta da da boom
1178. sar2401
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I swear reading this blog makes me dumber

How could that be possible?

(Just kidding)
1179. pottery
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I swear reading this blog makes me dumber


Impossible.

(heheheehh, I love open doors…. I'm just kidding you. And sometimes, I agree)
1180. yoboi
Quoting 1170. Patrap:


That is ridiculous, as you never have shown us the data to upport that crazy sentence.

SO put up, or slink way.




The natural CO2 flux to and from oceans and land plants amounts to approximately 210 gigatons of carbon annually. Man currently causes about 8 gigatons of carbon to be injected into the atmosphere, about 4% of the natural annual flux. There are estimates that about half of man’s emissions are taken up by nature



Link
1181. sar2401
Quoting ricderr:

My govs a weather blogger....talks a lot but when you fact check him...he's full of crap....ta da da boom

What the...you used a quote! Are you sick...fall on your head...what? :-)
1182. ricderr

Quoting 1170. Patrap:



That is ridiculous, as you never have shown us the data to support that crazy sentence.

SO put up, or slink way.
You talking to go perry?
1183. Patrap
Quoting 1174. VAbeachhurricanes:

I swear reading this blog makes me dumber


Thats why I always read the entry first, as a rule, and filter comments.

You guys are so funny :p
Quoting 1168. KoritheMan:



As long as the western Atlantic warm pool shifts more toward the Gulf of Mexico as is happening in those images, I'll be a happy man.
Quoting 1168. KoritheMan:



As long as the western Atlantic warm pool shifts more toward the Gulf of Mexico as is happening in those images, I'll be a happy man.
Is that what happened in 1983? Link
Looks like the record for earliest eastern north pacific would not be brake this season.
Quoting 1175. sar2401:


Still like #2. Bonnie will still like #1, so our votes will cancel each other out. :-)


Exactly right! And apparently Kori has a 'sexiness' factor in determining his preferred image
1188. Patrap
http://notrickszone.com/2013/03/02/most-of-the-ri se-in-co2-likely-comes-from-natural-sources/

REally?

No tricks zone is yer source?

Well then, nevermind with yer mind,

Okay?





Quoting 1157. Wolfberry:


First Bob, thanks for the long record of great posts ..to follow up with the thought. What is the biggest mystery bar none to me: How can the deniers know (if they do) that we daily, plunder, pillage, deforest, extract, pollute, poison, etc. the planet and there would not be consequences? A weather pattern disruption instinctively, with no science what-so-ever, I believe a class of show and tell with 3rd graders would get a unanmious thumbs up..

My greatest fear..as the above is obvious..are the unkowns in Keeps ..'Faster and Faster.'


I watched E.O. Wilson last night on Charley Rose . He has new book . None of us knows the Earth. Only 0.001 percent of us understand it. He's an 85 year-old-man. That studied ants his entire life.

E.O. Wilson is one of my great heroes.
1190. yoboi
Quoting 1188. Patrap:
http://notrickszone.com/2013/03/02/most-of-the-ri se-in-co2-likely-comes-from-natural-sources/

REally?

No tricks zone is yer source?

Well then, nevermind with yer mind,

Okay?







Are you saying humans emit more C02 than natural????
Quoting 1186. allancalderini:

Looks like the record for earliest eastern north pacific would not be brake this season.
LOL, I think we must still be in 2013.
1192. Patrap
Quoting 1190. yoboi:



Are you saying humans emit more C02 than natural????


Your source should cover dat easily shouldn't it ?



1193. yoboi
Quoting 1188. Patrap:
http://notrickszone.com/2013/03/02/most-of-the-ri se-in-co2-likely-comes-from-natural-sources/

REally?

No tricks zone is yer source?

Well then, nevermind with yer mind,

Okay?







Well here this from the alarmist site.....



Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
“The oceans contain 37,400 billion tons (GT) of suspended carbon, land biomass has 2000-3000 GT. The atpmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 and humans contribute only 6 GT additional load on this balance. The oceans, land and atpmosphere exchange CO2 continuously so the additional load by humans is incredibly small.



Link
Quoting 408. johnmc318:

Go ahead with all this GW mess.. It's all political... One of the local mets in Shreveport tonight went on saying he didn't believe any of this... I wish I could post the vid of his explanation but here is the link...

KSLA TV, Shreveport, LA - World not warming, severe weather not more frequent

So it really is turning things into something that sounds good for your cause right???


I watched the video. In order for Mr. Parr's nonsense "proof" that extreme weather is not increasing in the US to be valid, it would be necessary (but not sufficient) that all extreme weather in the US is in the form of hurricanes or tornadoes. Obviously, extreme drought is not caused by tornadoes or hurricanes. The record rainfall in Pensacola a few days ago was not caused by a hurricane, nor by a tropical storm, nor by a tornado.

This wasn't the only flaw in his reasoning. I wonder if he's going to try to publish his "proof". I suppose that it's easier to just broadcast it to his viewers.
1195. ricderr

Quoting 1181. sar2401:


What the...you used a quote! Are you sick...fall on your head...what? :-)
Just lounging in bed and the laptop is dead so I'm on my phone...you guys here showed me how t o cut and paste but I have shred fingers... gotta use the freaking quote button
1196. pottery
Well, y'all will be thrilled not know that our Minister of the Environment, during a press conference about the fires in the hills above the city, had this to say….

''the fires can be blamed on Climate Change''

Now, this is Absolute Crud, because the fires were the result of fools with lighters.
But our Gov. (like many others) will seek any way to NOT to have to deal with the reality of the situation.

It's Tragic.
1197. Patrap
Well here this from the alarmist site.....


Rightttttttttttttt...................

Heartland meme Number 3

Obfuscate.

Sowwy, Im privy to da Game plan on many levels, esp from within, with my keen Spy bot capability.




There are currently no tornado warnings (for now).

On that note, I'm headed off-line. You all have a nice evening.
1199. ncstorm
Quoting 1099. hurricanes2018:



star wars coming out next year


Darth Vadar died..climate change killed him..or lightening..I forget which is which..

but there is always Lord Dark Helmet to help pick up the pieces..



1200. Patrap
Divestment away from Dirty Energy Companies is on a mega rise.

So the werm, slowly, iz turning clockwise.

That's a good first move Globally.



Quoting 1193. yoboi:



Well here this from the alarmist site.....



Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
“The oceans contain 37,400 billion tons (GT) of suspended carbon, land biomass has 2000-3000 GT. The atpmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 and humans contribute only 6 GT additional load on this balance. The oceans, land and atpmosphere exchange CO2 continuously so the additional load by humans is incredibly small.



Link


Later in same exact article......

Human CO2 emissions upset the natural balance of the carbon cycle. Man-made CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by a third since the pre-industrial era, creating an artificial forcing of global temperatures which is warming the planet. While fossil-fuel derived CO2 is a very small component of the global carbon cycle, the extra CO2 is cumulative because the natural carbon exchange cannot absorb all the additional CO2.

The level of atmospheric CO2 is building up, the additional CO2 is being produced by burning fossil fuels, and that build up is accelerating.
Quoting 1166. yoboi:




Well 92.8% of the scientist agree that humans can NOT impact the climate more than 10%....


yoboi you throw this around a lot over at Ricky's blog..

Quoting 1170. Patrap:



That is ridiculous, as you never have shown us the data to support that crazy sentence.

SO put up, or slink way.


I could take this to a higher octave ..but ole Keep..well ya know..
1203. Patrap
I wonder if he's going to try to publish his "proof". I suppose that it's easier to just broadcast it to his viewers.

That Station ID can reach easily into Ark, Texas, and Oklahoma.


1204. yoboi
Quoting 1201. VAbeachhurricanes:


Later in same exact article......

Human CO2 emissions upset the natural balance of the carbon cycle. Man-made CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by a third since the pre-industrial era, creating an artificial forcing of global temperatures which is warming the planet. While fossil-fuel derived CO2 is a very small component of the global carbon cycle, the extra CO2 is cumulative because the natural carbon exchange cannot absorb all the additional CO2.

The level of atmospheric CO2 is building up, the additional CO2 is being produced by burning fossil fuels, and that build up is accelerating.



Do the Math....Still can NOT impact more than 10 %....
Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions

Yes, and for hundreds of thousands years it moved between 160 and 280 , But now we are running geology backwards at the speed of 10,000 years a day.

Make no mistake , we are running the greatest chemistry experiment in the history of Earth.
1206. spbloom
Quoting 1134. ColoradoBob1:

My Google leads me to real science......

We all are so thrilled you found google.


Sadly, Google leads him to bad places.

Google Scholar will probably have to await his next incarnation.
Quoting 1204. yoboi:




Do the Math....Still can NOT impact more than 10 %....


god you are dense...

Contribute less than 10% of all CO2, but the rise of CO2 is much larger... How can you not grasp this?
1208. spbloom
Quoting 1201. VAbeachhurricanes:



Later in same exact article......

Human CO2 emissions upset the natural balance of the carbon cycle. Man-made CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by a third since the pre-industrial era, creating an artificial forcing of global temperatures which is warming the planet. While fossil-fuel derived CO2 is a very small component of the global carbon cycle, the extra CO2 is cumulative because the natural carbon exchange cannot absorb all the additional CO2.

The level of atmospheric CO2 is building up, the additional CO2 is being produced by burning fossil fuels, and that build up is accelerating.



Deniers famously have a hard time understanding stocks and flows.
Quoting 1196. pottery:

Well, y'all will be thrilled not know that our Minister of the Environment, during a press conference about the fires in the hills above the city, had this to say….

''the fires can be blamed on Climate Change''

Now, this is Absolute Crud, because the fires were the result of fools with lighters.
But our Gov. (like many others) will seek any way to NOT to have to deal with the reality of the situation.

It's Tragic.


Fools with lighters are like monkeys with guns..they should be forced to put the fire out with gasoline...srry to hear Pott ..you guys really need some rain..quit starin out da window and get out there and dance would ya..
Quoting 1208. spbloom:



Deniers famously have a hard time understanding stocks and flows.


If the natural cycle is static and humans add 3%, guess how much its gonna increase?
1211. yoboi
Quoting 1207. VAbeachhurricanes:


god you are dense...

Contribute less than 10% of all CO2, but the rise of CO2 is much larger... How can you not grasp this?



Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
“The oceans contain 37,400 billion tons (GT) of suspended carbon, land biomass has 2000-3000 GT. The atpmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 and humans contribute only 6 GT additional load on this balance. The oceans, land and atpmosphere exchange CO2 continuously so the additional load by humans is incredibly small.



If you are saying C02 impacts the climate...Please show me how humans impact it more than 10%....
1212. Patrap
Im rarely going to do the werk for you again,if ever yoboi.

Your employing Heartland meme number 6, "get them to disprove yer lie".

Climate Model Indications and the Observed Climate
How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?


Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.



Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.

Make no mistake , we are running the greatest chemistry experiment in the history of Earth.
1214. Patrap
How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?

A large body of evidence supports the conclusion that human activity is the primary driver of recent warming. This evidence has accumulated over several decades, and from hundreds of studies. The first line of evidence is our basic physical understanding of how greenhouse gases trap heat, how the climate system responds to increases in greenhouse gases, and how other human and natural factors influence climate.

The second line of evidence is from indirect estimates of climate changes over the last 1,000 to 2,000 years. These estimates are often obtained from living things and their remains (like tree rings and corals) which provide a natural archive of climate variations. These indicators show that the recent temperature rise is clearly unusual in at least the last 1,000 years. The third line of evidence is based on comparisons of actual climate with computer models of how we expect climate to behave under certain human influences. For example, when climate models are run with historical increases in greenhouse gases, they show gradual warming of the Earth and ocean surface, increases in ocean heat content, a rise in global sea level, and general retreat of sea ice and snow cover. These and other aspects of modeled climate change are in agreement with observations.
1215. yoboi
Quoting 1212. Patrap:
Im rarely going to do the werk for you again,if ever yoboi.

Your employing Heartland meme number 6, "get them to disprove yer lie".

Climate Model Indications and the Observed Climate
How do we know humans are the primary cause of the warming?


Simulated global temperature in experiments that include human influences (pink line), and model experiments that included only natural factors (blue line). The black line is observed temperature change.



Global climate models clearly show the effect of human-induced changes on global temperatures. The blue band shows how global temperatures would have changed due to natural forces only (without human influence). The pink band shows model projections of the effects of human and natural forces combined. The black line shows actual observed global average temperatures. The close match between the black line and the pink band indicates that observed warming over the last half-century cannot be explained by natural factors alone, and is instead caused primarily by human factors.




Pat let me break this down step-by-step.....Does C02 impact the climate?????
Make no mistake , we are running the greatest chemistry experiment in the history of Earth.

Every thing else is trash.
1217. pottery
Quoting Wolfberry:


Fools with lighters are like monkeys with guns..they should be forced to put the fire out with gasoline...srry to hear Pott ..you guys really need some rain..quit starin out da window and get out there and dance would ya..

Maybe I'll try that, for true.

See y'all tomorrow.
Keep calm. This too shall pass.
(of course, we have no idea what's coming next, faster and faster, according to the Wise Northern One. :):))_
1218. Patrap
Quoting 1215. yoboi:




Pat let me break this down step-by-step.....Does C02 impact the climate?????


I doubt you could break down a Pup tent for me, actually, so no thanks.

I was a Tenderfoot once.

Climate change, once considered an issue for a distant future, has moved firmly into the present begins a new 1,000 page report on U.S. climate released May 6. The National Climate Assessment, issued every four years by NOAA, is an effort by more than 300 U.S. scientists to assess how the climate is changing in the U.S. The report was supervised and approved by a 60-member committee representing a cross section of American society, including representatives of two oil companies.Summers are longer and hotter, and extended periods of unusual heat last longer than any living American has ever experienced, the report continues. Winters are generally shorter and warmer. Rain comes in heavier downpours. People are seeing changes in the length and severity of seasonal allergies, the plant varieties that thrive in their gardens, and the kinds of birds they see in any particular month in their neighborhoods.

The National Climate Assessment lists hotter heat waves, more intense droughts, coastal inundation due to rising seas, heavier downpours, melting of glaciers and permafrost, bigger wildfires, worsening air pollution, stronger storms, increased diseases transmitted by insects, food, and water, and threats to mental health, as being of particular concern for Americans. If you want a thorough understanding of how climate change is affecting and will affect the U.S., this highly readable document is a great one to read, and I plan to frequently reference it in the coming years. Coming on the heels of a major 3-part report released by the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in September - April, the National Climate Assessment presents the same key themes: climate change is already having widespread impacts and will get much worse, but there are cost-effective measures we can take to adapt to it and help reduced it. Climate change presents a major challenge for society the report warns.

There is mounting evidence that harm to the nation will increase substantially in the future unless global emissions of heat-trapping gases are greatly reduced. What's particularly handy about the NCA is that it is U.S.-specific, and discusses in great detail the specific impacts in eight different regions of the U.S.: Northeast, Southeast and Caribbean, Midwest, Great Plains, Southwest, Northwest, Alaska, and Hawaii and Pacific Islands. I present here a few highlights.

1219. Patrap
..change is in the Heart,

You know who you are


1220. spbloom
Quoting 1194. DCSwithunderscores:



I watched the video. In order for Mr. Parr's nonsense "proof" that extreme weather is not increasing in the US to be valid, it would be necessary (but not sufficient) that all extreme weather in the US is in the form of hurricanes or tornadoes. Obviously, extreme drought is not caused by tornadoes or hurricanes. The record rainfall in Pensacola a few days ago was not caused by a hurricane, nor by a tropical storm, nor by a tornado.

This wasn't the only flaw in his reasoning. I wonder if he's going to try to publish his "proof". I suppose that it's easier to just broadcast it to his viewers.


I disassembled his specific claims (such as they were) much earlier in the thread. Note that the specific NCA claim about extremes is for heat waves, heavy downpours and winter storms, none of which he addressed.

But notice also how he was all set up to do his spiel but the anchor tripped him up with some stats about state-level records (in the last 51 months, 80 heat records, just 3 cold, 33 wet and 12 dry; IIRC these would be annual records). He didn't have much in response. Good for the anchor.

Quoting 1180. yoboi:





The natural CO2 flux to and from oceans and land plants amounts to approximately 210 gigatons of carbon annually. Man currently causes about 8 gigatons of carbon to be injected into the atmosphere, about 4% of the natural annual flux. There are estimates that about half of man%u2019s emissions are taken up by nature



Link
I don't know the science well enough but I do know numbers and that doesn't add up to 92.8% of anything.
Looks more like 99.44% something to me.
Here...clean up your post and come back.



1222. Patrap
But notice also how he was all set up to do his spiel but the anchor tripped him up with some stats about state-level records (in the last 51 months, 80 heat records, just 3 cold, 33 wet and 12 dry; IIRC these would be annual records). He didn't have much in response. Good for the anchor.

"You betcha,

stay classy wunderground"

Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



* Industry Sees Costly Rules After Obama's Climate Report

Stanford Divesting from Coal Companies Boosts Student Campaign Seeking Domino Effect

!!! CO2 'significantly reduces' nutrients in major food crops: Climate change may lead to crops that provide less zinc, iron and protein, a new report finds.

* House of Lords: Fracking should be 'urgent priority' for UK

*** Universe evolution recreated in lab (with video)

Global warmth trend hides local variants

*** Greenland melting due equally to global warming, natural variations


* Newly found dinosaur is long-nosed cousin of Tyrannosaurus Rex

RAWR!!!



*** New Study Sheds Light on Survivors of the Black Death

!!! NASA telescopes coordinate best-ever flare observations



!!! Semi-synthetic organism: Scientists create first living organism that transmits added letters in DNA 'alphabet'

*** Survey: Maryland oyster population makes gains

!!! Germany now EU's worst polluter as CO2 emissions rise

Texas Editorial Roundup

Study shows new insights about magma

Senator Harry Reid: Koch Brothers 'main causes' of climate change (with video) Oh, boy. Discuss!

*** Florida Finds Itself in the Eye of the Storm on Climate Change


*** On Climate, Republicans and Democrats Are From Different Continents

U.S. Awards 3 Wind Power Grants

The G.O.P. Can't Ignore Climate Change

Obama to roll out climate rules in early June, to dismay of Democratic candidates

Plant Life on Mars? NASA May Send Up Greenhouse in 2021

Live From Space, Now In HD (with video)

!!! Live NASA Feed
Quoting 1189. ColoradoBob1:



I watched E.O. Wilson last night on Charley Rose . He has new book . None of us knows the Earth. Only 0.001 percent of us understand it. He's an 85 year-old-man. That studied ants his entire life.

E.O. Wilson is one of my great heroes.


Personal # 1 post of the day..this is why I have been reading this blog for years (except for the humor of course) Sounds like a fantastic read..Thanks Bob..
1225. hydrus
Quoting 1174. VAbeachhurricanes:

I swear reading this blog makes me dumber
"The most intelligent minds are those that can entertain an idea without necessarily believing it." -Aristotle........We know your not dumber for readin the blog VBH..:)
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
I swear reading this blog makes me dumber
1228. spbloom
(Hmm, duplicate posted. Not sure how that happened. Maybe some glitches still in the new system.)

Quoting 1194. DCSwithunderscores:



I watched the video. In order for Mr. Parr's nonsense "proof" that extreme weather is not increasing in the US to be valid, it would be necessary (but not sufficient) that all extreme weather in the US is in the form of hurricanes or tornadoes. Obviously, extreme drought is not caused by tornadoes or hurricanes. The record rainfall in Pensacola a few days ago was not caused by a hurricane, nor by a tropical storm, nor by a tornado.

This wasn't the only flaw in his reasoning. I wonder if he's going to try to publish his "proof". I suppose that it's easier to just broadcast it to his viewers.


I disassembled his specific claims (such as they were) much earlier in the thread. Note that the specific NCA claim about extremes is for heat waves, heavy downpours and winter storms, none of which he addressed.

But notice also how he was all set up to do his spiel but the anchor tripped him up with some stats about state-level records (in the last 51 months, 80 heat records, just 3 cold, 33 wet and 12 dry; IIRC these would be annual records). He didn't have much in response. Good for the anchor.

Quoting 1221. CosmicEvents:

Just when I was going to roll the dice -Cosmic changes the odds..

SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
755 PM PDT WED MAY 7 2014

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 275 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF MANZANILLO MEXICO IS PRODUCING A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT MOVES NORTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE COAST OF MEXICO.
THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED...AND SOME
ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE...AND LITTLE DEVELOPMENT IS
EXPECTED ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY
HEAVY RAINS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN MEXICO
TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.

ANOTHER SPECIAL TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY 8 AM PDT
THURSDAY...OR SOONER IF NECESSARY.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
1231. Patrap
90E Day Viz to Night RGB Loop

1232. Patrap
90E Rainbow Loop

I dont want to cause a fuss but I want to ask a question.
What does it take to be called a peer when it comes to Climate Change scientists. I know that in my day it was being a scientist with similar background that had reviewed and published studies. I am not anywhere close to this area of knowledge and standing,but its looking more and more like unless you are in the loop you cant become a peer in this area of study. It seems like its an us and them thing as opposed to this study seems to contradict so lets try and replicate the results and see what happens. I seem to only see our results don't match so you are wrong. And even if the contrary study doesn't align why should that scientist not be a peer? EDIT: Arent there scientists within the Climate change community that have differing parameters//causations and outcomes and still remain a peer?
The rain is falling gently :-)
1235. Patrap
what is a peer in peer review?

About 145,000,000 results (0.39 seconds)
1236. sar2401
Quoting yoboi:



Human CO2 is a tiny % of CO2 emissions
“The oceans contain 37,400 billion tons (GT) of suspended carbon, land biomass has 2000-3000 GT. The atpmosphere contains 720 billion tons of CO2 and humans contribute only 6 GT additional load on this balance. The oceans, land and atpmosphere exchange CO2 continuously so the additional load by humans is incredibly small.
If you are saying C02 impacts the climate...Please show me how humans impact it more than 10%....

Did you read #1210? The answer is very simple. All the other non-human sources of CO2 are essentially in balance. Over the long run, they neither add nor take away from the normal carbon load of the earth. Unless some other creature has the ability to burn things, only humans contribute CO2 above the natural level, and it's going to be additive, and it will become more additive with each passing year. You already know this, but you are simply being obstreperous. It's just like adding 8 extra carriage returns to each post. You merely want attention, and this will be the last time you get it from me.
Quoting Patrap:
what is a peer in peer review?

About 145,000,000 results (0.39 seconds)




Thanks Pattrap. That is nice and all but it only begs the question further. Why are contrary scientists not included in the peer group? If your peers are limited to like mind; excluding like degree study's, than are we missing out on deeper questions simply for a consensus? And further, isnt the scientific community missing out on possible solutions if in some minute details there is not sufficient data? Take for instance solar and cosmic effects on clouds. Should it just be dismissed? Or is that an effect that could have some possibilities for CO2 negation?
Quoting CaribBoy:
The rain is falling gently :-)


That is a good thing isn't it? You have had a somewhat dry spring haven't you?
Is the NHC going to not designate this system?? not worthy?


or they just want to get busy working on those Post storm analyses so soon citing unnamed storms?

Quoting 1239. MaxWeather:

Is the NHC going to not designate this system?? not worthy?


or they just want to get busy working on those Post storm analyses so soon citing unnamed storms?
It's not that organized.
1241. sar2401
Quoting QueensWreath:
I dont want to cause a fuss but I want to ask a question.
What does it take to be called a peer when it comes to Climate Change scientists. I know that in my day it was being a scientist with similar background that had reviewed and published studies. I am not anywhere close to this area of knowledge and standing,but its looking more and more like unless you are in the loop you cant become a peer in this area of study. It seems like its an us and them thing as opposed to this study seems to contradict so lets try and replicate the results and see what happens. I seem to only see our results don't match so you are wrong. And even if the contrary study doesn't align why should that scientist not be a peer? EDIT: Arent there scientists within the Climate change community that have differing parameters//causations and outcomes and still remain a peer?

Well, yeah, you need to be in the same or closely allied field to be a peer reviewer. Otherwise, you wouldn't be a peer. But that doesn't mean everything is in lockstep. I'd love to be able to prove some of the big names in the field wrong. I actually think Elsner, for example, is wrong in some of his assumptions and methodology. However, since my degree is not in a climate science, I don't get to review his paper...but other scientists hop all over his studies, and some have criticized him. The way to make a name for yourself in the field of climate science is to prove a big name is full of hot air, not publish yet another "me too" paper. This entire issue has been going on hot and heavy for almost 50 years. If there was a basic flaw in the science, it would have long ago been rooted out.

Now, the various scenarios that may or may not play out in the future are, to some degree speculation, and some of them, maybe many of them, will turn out to be wrong. Those scenarios are are proper arena for debate. What doesn't make any sense debating is whether or not the earth is warming, and if a major part of the warming isn't caused by us. That part is absolutely clear. It's only a us vs them thing when it's the vast majority of climate scientist versus a bunch of unknown bloggers that generally believe in grand conspiracy theories. Just take some time to read some the linked ant-science sites, not just the linked page. If everything they're saying makes perfect sense...including things like chemtrails and FEMA concentration camps..., well, I don't know what to tell you.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Later in same exact article......

Human CO2 emissions upset the natural balance of the carbon cycle. Man-made CO2 in the atmosphere has increased by a third since the pre-industrial era, creating an artificial forcing of global temperatures which is warming the planet. While fossil-fuel derived CO2 is a very small component of the global carbon cycle, the extra CO2 is cumulative because the natural carbon exchange cannot absorb all the additional CO2.

The level of atmospheric CO2 is building up, the additional CO2 is being produced by burning fossil fuels, and that build up is accelerating.


Do natural phenomenon upset the average balance of any given earthly metric? I would say yes. Now what is humanly possible to contradict that and what is the expense ratio to human suffering to balance that? I know that's a loaded question but there is a balance there somewhere. Do we abruptly shut down known energy supply without replacement? In doing so do we cut off the tax base that pays for new R&D? Lets have a plan here not an ideal that cuts off the goose that pays for ease of existence.How am I wrong? Precisely.

Quoting 1237. QueensWreath:





Thanks Pattrap. That is nice and all but it only begs the question further. Why are contrary scientists not included in the peer group?
u for real bruh?

:0
1244. spbloom
Quoting 1237. QueensWreath:





Thanks Pattrap. That is nice and all but it only begs the question further. Why are contrary scientists not included in the peer group? If your peers are limited to like mind; excluding like degree study's, than are we missing out on deeper questions simply for a consensus? And further, isnt the scientific community missing out on possible solutions if in some minute details there is not sufficient data? Take for instance solar and cosmic effects on clouds. Should it just be dismissed? Or is that an effect that could have some possibilities for CO2 negation?


Strange questions given that those effects have been researched intensively. Why didn't you check that first?

Re "peer," there's no very specific definition, but in the context of "peer review" it means someone who has been sufficiently educated in a field to be able to intelligently assess papers in that field. It's possible, although relatively rare, for people to qualify for that status by publishing in a field even though they weren't formally educated in it.
Evening All. Interesting feed from the NWS Miami tonight. There is your warm pool Koritheman. lol.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
IT`S NOT UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHERE MOISTURE REBOUNDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL WARM AND BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, PARTIALLY DUE TO THE +1-2C
SST ANOMALIES WHICH EXIST ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS.

FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING SOUTH FL FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH INCREASING MOISTURE,
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LOW
DEVELOPMENT (SUB-TROPICAL PERHAPS) FAVORED OFF THE FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS AN INCOMING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHUNTS THIS OFF TO THE EAST BY THU. HAVE
PLACED CHANCE POPS IN THE TUE- WED TIMEFRAME. PLACEMENT OF THE
TROUGH/LOW IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON WHETHER WE
STAY ON THE DRY SIDE OF THIS FEATURE OR WET SIDE.

Quoting 1245. ProgressivePulse:

Evening All. Interesting feed from the NWS Miami tonight. There is your warm pool Koritheman. lol.

LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)...
IT`S NOT UNTIL THIS WEEKEND WHERE MOISTURE REBOUNDS SUFFICIENTLY
TO SUPPORT ISOLATED SHOWER DEVELOPMENT. TEMPS WILL WARM AND BE
ABOVE AVERAGE...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, PARTIALLY DUE TO THE +1-2C
SST ANOMALIES WHICH EXIST ACROSS OUR LOCAL WATERS.

FOR THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE STAYED CONSISTENT IN SHOWING AN INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH
APPROACHING SOUTH FL FROM THE SOUTHEAST WITH INCREASING MOISTURE,
ESPECIALLY TUE-WED. MODEL TRENDS SUGGEST A POSSIBLE LOW
DEVELOPMENT (SUB-TROPICAL PERHAPS) FAVORED OFF THE FLORIDA
ATLANTIC COAST WITH MOVEMENT OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AS AN INCOMING
MID/UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SHUNTS THIS OFF TO THE EAST BY THU. HAVE
PLACED CHANCE POPS IN THE TUE- WED TIMEFRAME. PLACEMENT OF THE
TROUGH/LOW IS UNCERTAIN AND WILL HAVE IMPLICATIONS ON WHETHER WE
STAY ON THE DRY SIDE OF THIS FEATURE OR WET SIDE.
I've been noticing that subtropical feature on the models. I'm not particularly impressed with it yet, and it's still a bit too far out for me.

But what do I care? I'm not going to get it anyway, lol.
Quoting 1231. Patrap:

90E Day Viz to Night RGB Loop


90E is mayonnaise to my tuna salad, ketchup to my onion rings, music to my ears, and prisms
to my eyes. Lookin likely you might get some action out of tomorrow's storms.

In Austin, in early May, all the grass and flowers are already dead. Maybe this will bring them back.
Quoting 1240. KoritheMan:


It's not that organized.


I gave out the options... one of them is "not worthy"
Nonetheless those are some rather healthy SST anomalies for early May.

Quoting 1248. MaxWeather:


I gave out the options... one of them is "not worthy"
Well then I pick that one.
1251. KalainH
Quoting 1196. pottery:

Well, y'all will be thrilled not know that our Minister of the Environment, during a press conference about the fires in the hills above the city, had this to say….

''the fires can be blamed on Climate Change''

Now, this is Absolute Crud, because the fires were the result of fools with lighters.
But our Gov. (like many others) will seek any way to NOT to have to deal with the reality of the situation.

It's Tragic.


God, I remembered reading that in the Guardian and I just couldn't believe that's the guy is the CEO of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (Not the Minister of Environment but I'm pretty sure he's just as incompetent too lol) . And the cause of that fire (I assume you're talking about the one that started in Maraval and burned for 7 days across the Northern Range) was a farmer who's genius idea was to set his farm which was high in the mountains on fire to clear it, on a windy day. And he wasn't even fined or charged.

His statement: Link

Incompetence of all the officials in trying to extinguish those wildfires: Link

1252. spbloom
Quoting 1242. QueensWreath:



Do natural phenomenon upset the average balance of any given earthly metric? I would say yes. Now what is humanly possible to contradict that and what is the expense ratio to human suffering to balance that? I know that's a loaded question but there is a balance there somewhere. Do we abruptly shut down known energy supply without replacement? In doing so do we cut off the tax base that pays for new R&D? Lets have a plan here not an ideal that cuts off the goose that pays for ease of existence.How am I wrong? Precisely.


More like vaguely wrong, so far.

But it does seem clear that you're concerned about the practicality of a transition to renewables. This is a good place to start. You might also do some research into the cost of failing to make such a transition. It's not at all affordable IMO.
Quoting 1240. KoritheMan:


It's not that organized.





Looks like a lot towers are forming right now. 90E will supplement whatever is going to happen
tomorrow.
Quoting 1226. BaltimoreBrian:

<


1255. pottery
Quoting KalainH:


God, I remembered reading that in the Guardian and I just couldn't believe that's the guy is the CEO of the Office of Disaster Preparedness and Management (Not the Minister of Environment but I'm pretty sure he's just as incompetent too lol) . And the cause of that fire (I assume you're talking about the one that started in Maraval and burned for 7 days across the Northern Range) was a farmer who's genius idea was to set his farm which was high in the mountains on fire to clear it, on a windy day. And he wasn't even fined or charged.

His statement: Link

Incompetence of all the officials in trying to extinguish those wildfires: Link



Thanks for correcting that. Appreciated.
Time to form a Pressure/Lobby group to try to get the Gov. to put the Army on Fire Duty.
Not to put them out, but to get to the fires as soon as poss. and set about terrorising everyone in the area, and threaten them with jail-time.

They're good at that, and it may have the right effect.
Quoting sar2401:

Well, yeah, you need to be in the same or closely allied field to be a peer reviewer. Otherwise, you wouldn't be a peer. But that doesn't mean everything is in lockstep. I'd love to be able to prove some of the big names in the field wrong. I actually think Elsner, for example, is wrong in some of his assumptions and methodology. However, since my degree is not in a climate science, I don't get to review his paper...but other scientists hop all over his studies, and some have criticized him. The way to make a name for yourself in the field of climate science is to prove a big name is full of hot air, not publish yet another "me too" paper. This entire issue has been going on hot and heavy for almost 50 years. If there was a basic flaw in the science, it would have long ago been rooted out.

Now, the various scenarios that may or may not play out in the future are, to some degree speculation, and some of them, maybe many of them, will turn out to be wrong. Those scenarios are are proper arena for debate. What doesn't make any sense debating is whether or not the earth is warming, and if a major part of the warming isn't caused by us. That part is absolutely clear. It's only a us vs them thing when it's the vast majority of climate scientist versus a bunch of unknown bloggers that generally believe in grand conspiracy theories. Just take some time to read some the linked ant-science sites, not just the linked page. If everything they're saying makes perfect sense...including things like chemtrails and FEMA concentration camps..., well, I don't know what to tell you.


Thats a great response. But it doesnt address the other scenarios that are being dismissed because they contradict Man made warming. Great reduce fossil fuel burning. I am all for it. Not a single complaint there. But what do you replace it with and how do you drive the end result innovations? Do you drag down the economy with regulation and hope the Government can tax enough to sustain grants? Or do you make sure the economy can afford the R&D and create an environment that is an incentive for the research that can save us from the Fossil fuel addiction? We are cutting off our nose despite our face for some silly argument about weather or not a degree and a half of global warming is caused by man or not!
Get beyond that and think about what is needed to combat and adapt! Stop wasting money on the argument and start conserving funds to adapt and change. Even the people that are calling for reduced carbon burning have stated that the most drastic cuts will have a limited result in the next 100 year. So where does that leave us? Broke and with little hope of changing direction? How about all of the above with the thriving economy able to afford the change!?
Quoting 1239. MaxWeather:

Is the NHC going to not designate this system?? not worthy?


or they just want to get busy working on those Post storm analyses so soon citing unnamed storms?

it failed at its chance just an area of disturb weather that's it maybe after the crossing it will get another chance but not likely

pre season teasers got to love em
1259. pottery
Quoting QueensWreath:


Thats a great response. But it doesnt address the other scenarios that are being dismissed because they contradict Man made warming. Great reduce fossil fuel burning. I am all for it. Not a single complaint there. But what do you replace it with and how do you drive the end result innovations? Do you drag down the economy with regulation and hope the Government can tax enough to sustain grants? Or do you make sure the economy can afford the R&D and create an environment that is an incentive for the research that can save us from the Fossil fuel addiction? We are cutting off our nose despite our face for some silly argument about weather or not a degree and a half of global warming is caused by man or not!
Get beyond that and think about what is needed to combat and adapt! Stop wasting money on the argument and start conserving funds to adapt and change. Even the people that are calling for reduced carbon burning have stated that the most drastic cuts will have a limited result in the next 100 year. So where does that leave us? Broke and with little hope of changing direction? How about all of the above with the thriving economy able to afford the change!?

You're right, you know.
I'm all for reducing fuel consumption, but I live in a Tropical place and it was only when I spent a winter in a big, cold city (london) that I realised that there is no way those people could survive winter without fossil fuel.

Need to put something in place first.
Quoting 1035. Wolfberry:



I applaud your post in many way as I agree with the underlying tenor of finding solutions. I farm so the subject is closer to home for me and thanks for the shout out on Amaranth..wow!! I planted some yesterday it truly is beautiful and Thomas Jefferson was sold on it's nutritional aspects over so many other grains. My personal life desire is to provide solutions for your questions, and one of the most troubling for me, is why are we using the same staples year in and year out..Corn, wheat, rice, etc...when in fact there are so many far more nutritionally valuable food stuffs that are less feeders of water and fertilizer..I farm organically. Period. But more so I'm an 'agricultural scientist' experimenting with super-foods in very harsh country at 6,000 feet in Arizona..bringing solutions to exactly what you are pointing out. We've got to come to terms with the fact that we will indeed extract every bloody ounce of oil and coal from this earth ..and maybe not in your life time or mine ..but this is going to be one frightening place to live..


We're at 4,000 feet in rural Northern Nevada. If you have livestock (geese, rabbits, goats, the smaller vegetarian sort) consider growing kochia for harvest to supplement or replace alfalfa. Way easier on the water.
Quoting pottery:

You're right, you know.
I'm all for reducing fuel consumption, but I live in a Tropical place and it was only when I spent a winter in a big, cold city (london) that I realised that there is no way those people could survive winter without fossil fuel.

Need to put something in place first.


Its a sad reality. It truly is. There is so much money being wasted on the argument that the solutions are being short changed and capital is being wasted/stifled! And simple clean aside from warming is also being ignored. Just look at nutrient and sediment runoff. Its not even on the environmental radar. Take a tenth of the monies spent on the warming argument and spend it on that and WOW we could actually clean the planet.
The surface low with our AOI N of PR has officially separated from the cold front as of 00Z
Quoting Wolfberry:


I applaud your post in many way as I agree with the underlying tenor of finding solutions. I farm so the subject is closer to home for me and thanks for the shout out on Amaranth..wow!! I planted some yesterday it truly is beautiful and Thomas Jefferson was sold on it's nutritional aspects over so many other grains. My personal life desire is to provide solutions for your questions, and one of the most troubling for me, is why are we using the same staples year in and year out..Corn, wheat, rice, etc...when in fact there are so many far more nutritionally valuable food stuffs that are less feeders of water and fertilizer..I farm organically. Period. But more so I'm an 'agricultural scientist' experimenting with super-foods in very harsh country at 6,000 feet in Arizona..bringing solutions to exactly what you are pointing out. We've got to come to terms with the fact that we will indeed extract every bloody ounce of oil and coal from this earth ..and maybe not in your life time or mine ..but this is going to be one frightening place to live..


I dont know how old you are but if you have studied history in detail you will come to know that only in a Republic as exists in The USA will those ideals come to fruition. If they are good. And they are. The free market within a truly capitalistic society will assure that a true need will come to fruition,make money for the entrepreneur and thrive. You could be the risk taker and profit. If not someone else will. Dont count on Government to do it. The marketing will be as good as....... Healthcare website? Take the bull by the horns and do it yourself!
Quoting 1180. yoboi:





...There are estimates that about half of man’s emissions are taken up by nature



Link


I'm halfway through 2/3 of a pint of Three Philosophers Quadruple, and I am trying really, really hard to not talk about the triffid that keeps following me everywhere I go.
1266. Xulonn
Quoting 1101. hurricanes2018:

Trained spotter reports pea size hail 4 miles southwest of Windom at 718 PM CDT.
What kind of training does it take to be able to spot hail?
1267. sar2401
Quoting QueensWreath:


Thats a great response. But it doesnt address the other scenarios that are being dismissed because they contradict Man made warming. Great reduce fossil fuel burning. I am all for it. Not a single complaint there. But what do you replace it with and how do you drive the end result innovations? Do you drag down the economy with regulation and hope the Government can tax enough to sustain grants? Or do you make sure the economy can afford the R&D and create an environment that is an incentive for the research that can save us from the Fossil fuel addiction? We are cutting off our nose despite our face for some silly argument about weather or not a degree and a half of global warming is caused by man or not!
Get beyond that and think about what is needed to combat and adapt! Stop wasting money on the argument and start conserving funds to adapt and change. Even the people that are calling for reduced carbon burning have stated that the most drastic cuts will have a limited result in the next 100 year. So where does that leave us? Broke and with little hope of changing direction? How about all of the above with the thriving economy able to afford the change!?

Oh, it will all come. As the cost of oil rises, alternatives like solar and wind start to become more attractive. We simply aren't going to replace oil in the near term. As we've already been doing, find ways to burn it as cleanly as possible and start bringing the other alternatives on-line as the costs become competitive. We can accomplish many of our goals with a combination of tax breaks and subsidies without taxing the average person to death. Don't assume that what you read here has anything to do with reality. We are all just a bunch of nerds trying to figure out small details. The average person will make economic choices as time goes on that will reduce our dependence on carbon fuels. It may all take 100 years. I don't really know. But I would like to see us spend more time on action proposals rather than yet another report trying to convince people that global warming is real. We have nearly arrived at a point where the number who accept science and those that reject it are at the point of stasis. That is the only thing you see here that's real. Now is the time to start putting things on the table and make choices.
1268. sar2401
Quoting Xulonn:
What kind of training does it take to be able to spot hail?

Lots...plus there's all that time with the ruler, and making sure it doesn't melt too fast. It's tough. :-)
Quoting Xulonn:
What kind of training does it take to be able to spot hail?


Someone that registers and reports on a regular basis? Good question. I don't exactly know.
CoCoRHaS actually has hail pads that document hail events and details if you join the community of reporters.
Quoting 1264. QueensWreath:



I dont know how old you are but if you have studied history in detail you will come to know that only in a Republic as exists in The USA will those ideals come to fruition. If they are good. And they are. The free market within a truly capitalistic society will assure that a true need will come to fruition,make money for the entrepreneur and thrive. You could be the risk taker and profit. If not someone else will. Dont count on Government to do it. The marketing will be as good as....... Healthcare website? Take the bull by the horns and do it yourself!

I'm old enough to be wise enough to not answer your question because it has nothing to do with my post. I'm solution oriented. I don't the desire to be an arm chair warrior. I see a need to organically improve nutritional yield by crop choice. For example a Wolfberry is the original term for Goji berry. Now, I can plant an acre of wheat to do again and again for a very low yield. Both nutritionally and financially or I can experiment in super foods on a very small template ..as I'm doing and bringing them to success, can help many other people beside just myself. IMO we have got to change many aspects of an environmentally changing world and the choice of foodstuffs planted have got to come to par..
Quoting 1263. wunderkidcayman:

The surface low with our AOI N of PR has officially separated from the cold front as of 00Z


Quoting spbloom:


More like vaguely wrong, so far.

But it does seem clear that you're concerned about the practicality of a transition to renewables. This is a good place to start. You might also do some research into the cost of failing to make such a transition. It's not at all affordable IMO.


Thanks for your response. Conversation is always good. I am actually concerned about the transition to more sustainable energy including renewables. I am also concerned about the funding needed to develop them. A point that you seem to ignore. Money doesnt grow on trees and Governments need wealthy taxpayers to tax.
Quoting 1270. Wolfberry:


I'm old enough to be wise enough to not answer your question because it has nothing to do with my post. I'm solution oriented. I don't the desire to be an arm chair warrior. I see a need to organically improve nutritional yield by crop choice. For example a Wolfberry is the original term for Goji berry. Now, I can plant an acre of wheat to do again and again for a very low yield. Both nutritionally and financially or I can experiment in super foods on a very small template ..as I'm doing and bringing them to success, can help many other people beside just myself. IMO we have got to change many aspects of an environmentally changing world and the choice of foodstuffs planted have got to come to par..


Heya, private message in your inbox.
Quoting sar2401:

Oh, it will all come. As the cost of oil rises, alternatives like solar and wind start to become more attractive. We simply aren't going to replace oil in the near term. As we've already been doing, find ways to burn it as cleanly as possible and start bringing the other alternatives on-line as the costs become competitive. We can accomplish many of our goals with a combination of tax breaks and subsidies without taxing the average person to death. Don't assume that what you read here has anything to do with reality. We are all just a bunch of nerds trying to figure out small details. The average person will make economic choices as time goes on that will reduce our dependence on carbon fuels. It may all take 100 years. I don't really know. But I would like to see us spend more time on action proposals rather than yet another report trying to convince people that global warming is real. We have nearly arrived at a point where the number who accept science and those that reject it are at the point of stasis. That is the only thing you see here that's real. Now is the time to start putting things on the table and make choices.



YUP! Thanks Sar

1259. pottery


Pottery the way I see it..Because I live in the Southwest ..If we could maximize the cities that have the luxury of accessible solar power..that alone would help lower all around CO2 ..There will always be a need for fossil fuels..But look at the strides Saudi Arabia, for example, is making with solar. It is a matter of doing what can be done and more becomes available..
Quoting 1237. QueensWreath:





Thanks Pattrap. That is nice and all but it only begs the question further. Why are contrary scientists not included in the peer group? If your peers are limited to like mind; excluding like degree study's, than are we missing out on deeper questions simply for a consensus? And further, isnt the scientific community missing out on possible solutions if in some minute details there is not sufficient data? Take for instance solar and cosmic effects on clouds. Should it just be dismissed? Or is that an effect that could have some possibilities for CO2 negation?


A scientist, by nature, is skeptical. The research world is extremely competitive, and can be downright nasty. You need a really thick skin if you're planning to publish, and you're work better be solid or you can expect scathing reviews from your peers. That's assuming you make it past the initial review done by the journal.

Since scientists are skeptical, they are constantly questioning their results. In a field such as climatology which calls on multiple disciplines, many scientists are questioning multiple aspects of the research all the time. And yes, multiple scientists have looked into the "cosmic ray" hypothesis and found it didn't hold water.

For some strange reason a lot of people seem to think the research world is full of wine and roses. I have no idea where that perception came from. :P
Quoting Wolfberry:

I'm old enough to be wise enough to not answer your question because it has nothing to do with my post. I'm solution oriented. I don't the desire to be an arm chair warrior. I see a need to organically improve nutritional yield by crop choice. For example a Wolfberry is the original term for Goji berry. Now, I can plant an acre of wheat to do again and again for a very low yield. Both nutritionally and financially or I can experiment in super foods on a very small template ..as I'm doing and bringing them to success, can help many other people beside just myself. IMO we have got to change many aspects of an environmentally changing world and the choice of foodstuffs planted have got to come to par..


Perhaps I came off too harsh. I could have said that you have a worthy goal. Whom better than you to see it to fruition. I am sorry for soap box as opposed to good luck with your ambitions. Again I am truly sorry. And you can do it you know. :O)
LOL. Can I suggest that in addition to the + and - that there be a ? for clicking on :O) Continue the fun of a blog. Just a thought from me.
Quoting 1273. nonblanche:



Heya, private message in your inbox.

I have no clue how to retrieve, where do I go?..I've grown to love my profile pic because I have no idea how to upload one..
Quoting QueensWreath:


Someone that registers and reports on a regular basis? Good question. I don't exactly know.
CoCoRHaS actually has hail pads that document hail events and details if you join the community of reporters.


I have never used those hail pads. Largest hail I've ever seen was quarter-sized. Really, I just find it a simple matter to wait outside, watch it come down, pick one, and measure with ruler.

Quoting Xulonn:
What kind of training does it take to be able to spot hail?


None. I think the Weather Service likes to mention these reports came from a trained spotter just to add authenticity to their warnings. You won't believe what minor changes in wording will do to the effects of a warning.

Edit: Note to self: I am not a great Latin writer...I should not leave words out of sentences.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


A scientist, by nature, is skeptical. The research world is extremely competitive, and can be downright nasty. You need a really thick skin if you're planning to publish, and you're work better be solid or you can expect scathing reviews from your peers. That's assuming you make it past the initial review done by the journal.

Since scientists are skeptical, they are constantly questioning their results. In a field such as climatology which calls on multiple disciplines, many scientists are questioning multiple aspects of the research all the time. And yes, multiple scientists have looked into the "cosmic ray" hypothesis and found it didn't hold water.

For some strange reason a lot of people seem to think the research world is full of wine and roses. I have no idea where that perception came from. :P


YUP!
But what if the small amount that Cosmic rays did influence could be used to combat man made influence within our atmosphere? In other Words why have so many scientists reiterating something proven only to advance the argument and not furthering the research to do something about it?
1282. Xulonn
Quoting 1268. sar2401:


Lots...plus there's all that time with the ruler, and making sure it doesn't melt too fast. It's tough. :-)
At least you got the humor, Sar. I can understand why training is necessary for reporting on other subjective weather phenomena, but hail seems pretty straightforward.
Quoting Astrometeor:


I have never used those hail pads. Largest hail I've ever seen was quarter-sized. Really, I just find it a simple matter to wait outside, watch it come down, pick one, and measure with ruler.



None. I think the Weather Service likes to mention these reports came from a trained spotter just to add authenticity to their warnings. You won't believe what minor changes in wording will do to the effects of a warning.

Edit: Note to self: I am not a great Latin writer...I should not leave words out of sentences.



Oh trust me I would believe!


I have no clue how to retrieve, where do I go?..I've grown to love my profile pic because I have no idea how to upload one..


upper right of the page click on the "person" icon and choose WU Mail.
Quoting Astrometeor:
I have never used those hail pads. Largest hail I've ever seen was quarter-sized. Really, I just find it a simple matter to wait outside, watch it come down, pick one, and measure with ruler.

None. I think the Weather Service likes to mention these reports came from a trained spotter just to add authenticity to their warnings. You won't believe what minor changes in wording will do to the effects of a warning.

Edit: Note to self: I am not a great Latin writer...I should not leave words out of sentences.


Grammatica enim silent leges post mediam noctem
Quoting 1284. HadesGodWyvern:



upper right of the page click on the "person" icon and choose WU Mail.


srry for the interruption guys..thanks for the help..what page do you mean?
Quoting Wolfberry:


srry for the interruption guys..thanks for the help..what page do you mean?


Any page. You're on the new version of Wunderground, are you not? There's a black bar at the top of the page, and on the right side there's a person icon. Click on that, a list of choices will appear, and select WU Mail.
srry for the interruption guys..thanks for the help..what page do you mean?


you can actually see the icon on any blog page.

you'll see a image of a person and a cog gear in the upper right corner.
Thanks guys on the mail..got it..I'll tackle a profile pic some other day..
Quoting 1286. Wolfberry:



srry for the interruption guys..thanks for the help..what page do you mean?




top right of page
INV/90E/XX
Quoting 1291. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:





top right of page



That is perfect ..I did find it Keep ..thanks man!! Those are my kinda instruction!!!
Quoting 1277. QueensWreath:



Perhaps I came off too harsh. I could have said that you have a worthy goal. Whom better than you to see it to fruition. I am sorry for soap box as opposed to good luck with your ambitions. Again I am truly sorry. And you can do it you know. :O)

No offense taken what-so-ever. It just cracked me up you came off like that. For the record I'm 58 years old on a small plot of 40 acres, completely self-contained and totally off the grid. No debt. I have a very high level interest in experimenting with organically growing super foods specifically at high elevations and dry arid climate. I'm at 6,000 feet elevation. There is an immense amount of available land that can be utilized for this specific purpose. Aquafir ground water in AZ is plentiful.

I have been reading the doc's blog daily for no less than 5 years. Every entry, every comment. I also frequent Ricky Roods which I highly suggest if you have an interest in answering your own questions. There are a lot of sharp guys there and it's always better to read before asking questions, most times that endeavor alone, will do the trick.


1296. sar2401
Quoting Xulonn:
At least you got the humor, Sar. I can understand why training is necessary for reporting on other subjective weather phenomena, but hail seems pretty straightforward.

The NWS usually appends the "trained spotter" appellation to any report made by Skywarn spotter. It's a step up from "Some guy reported...". :-)
1297. sar2401
Quoting QueensWreath:


YUP!
But what if the small amount that Cosmic rays did influence could be used to combat man made influence within our atmosphere? In other Words why have so many scientists reiterating something proven only to advance the argument and not furthering the research to do something about it?

Cosmic rays? You lost me. What do you think cosmic rays can do to fight global warming? Something to keep in mind is that scientists generally don't recommend courses of action. They present the evidence as clearly as possible (or as clearly as they can) of what the current conditions are and what the conditions are expected to be at some point. It's then up to the political world to actually come up with plans.
Peer review? To review laws passed by the people's house in a constitutional monarchy you can have peers of the realm:



But to review papers you need a peer of the ream:

Quoting 1267. sar2401:


Oh, it will all come. As the cost of oil rises, alternatives like solar and wind start to become more attractive. We simply aren't going to replace oil in the near term. As we've already been doing, find ways to burn it as cleanly as possible and start bringing the other alternatives on-line as the costs become competitive. We can accomplish many of our goals with a combination of tax breaks and subsidies without taxing the average person to death. Don't assume that what you read here has anything to do with reality. We are all just a bunch of nerds trying to figure out small details. The average person will make economic choices as time goes on that will reduce our dependence on carbon fuels. It may all take 100 years. I don't really know. But I would like to see us spend more time on action proposals rather than yet another report trying to convince people that global warming is real. We have nearly arrived at a point where the number who accept science and those that reject it are at the point of stasis. That is the only thing you see here that's real. Now is the time to start putting things on the table and make choices.

Excellent post Sar..good money says you are 100% correct and it's headed exactly that way..
1302. spbloom
Quoting 1272. QueensWreath:



Thanks for your response. Conversation is always good. I am actually concerned about the transition to more sustainable energy including renewables. I am also concerned about the funding needed to develop them. A point that you seem to ignore. Money doesnt grow on trees and Governments need wealthy taxpayers to tax.


Nope, didn't ignore it at all. If you have a goal like this, you start with an assessment of the available technology, then move on to cost. The reverse order makes no sense, since without knowing what something is you can't know what the cost might be. So get back to me after you've digested that material and we'll talk money.

Why the concern about wealthy taxpayers, BTW? Are you one of them? If so you can afford to pay a lot more than you are now.

If you're questioning that last point, see here.
Quoting 1298. BaltimoreBrian:

Peer review? To review laws passed by the people's house in a constitutional monarchy you can have peers of the realm:



But to review papers you need a peer of the ream:


r u sure that's not pairs of reams?
GET READY FOR A NEW METEOR SHOWER: May 24th could be a big day for meteor astronomy. That's when Earth is expected to pass through a cloud of debris from comet 209P/LINEAR, producing a never-before-seen meteor shower. Meteor rates could exceed 200 per hour, and some forecasters have even mentioned the possibility of a meteor storm. Get the full story from Science@NASA.
Quoting 1275. Wolfberry:


1259. pottery


Pottery the way I see it..Because I live in the Southwest ..If we could maximize the cities that have the luxury of accessible solar power..that alone would help lower all around CO2 ..There will always be a need for fossil fuels..But look at the strides Saudi Arabia, for example, is making with solar. It is a matter of doing what can be done and more becomes available..


Solar panels are killing millions of my beloved birds!



297
Size: + / -
Print
| Reprints
Share on facebookShare on twitterShare on google_plusone_shareShare on redditShare on linkedinShare on stumbleuponShare on emailMore Sharing Services

By Douglas Ernst

-

The Washington Times

Friday, April 11, 2014

getty images A Hummingbird feeds.

Enlarge Photo
getty images A Hummingbird feeds. more >

Story Topics

Environment
U.S. Fish And Wildlife Service

Follow Us On
facebookFacebook
Question of the Day
The 840-page "National Climate Assessment" paints a grim picture for America, warning of severe droughts, rising sea levels and other catastrophic consequences of global warming. Do you agree with this report?


Yes

No

Undecided

Other

View results

A new report by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service finds that solar facilities in California are acting like “mega traps” that kill and injure birds. As a result, “entire food chains” are being disrupted.

USFWS’s National Fish and Wildlife Forensics Laboratory studied three solar farms in Southern California: Desert Sunlight, Genesis Solar and Ivanpah Solar Electric Generating System (ISEGS). Two-hundred and thirty-three different birds from 71 species were found over the course of a two-year study.

SPECIAL COVERAGE: Energy and Environment

The three main causes of death were:

1. Solar flux: Exposure to temperatures over 800 degrees F.

2. Impact (or blunt force) trauma: The birds’ wings are rendered inoperable while flying, causing them to crash into the ground. Birds that do not die are often injured badly enough to make them vulnerable to predators.

3. Predators: When a bird’s wings are singed and it can not fly, it loses its primary means of defense against animals like foxes and coyotes.

Hummingbirds, swifts, swallows, doves, hawks, finches, warblers and owls were just some dead birds found at the solar facilities’ “equal opportunity” mortality hazards.

In one instance, lab staff observed a “falcon-type bird with a plume of smoke arising from the tail as it passed through [a] flux field.”

The study found that besides the intense heat, birds may be mistaking large solar panels for bodies of water. The injured birds then attract insects and other predators to the area. They, too, are then vulnerable to injury or death.

In one instance, researchers found “hundreds upon hundreds” of butterfly carcasses (including Monarchs). The insects were attracted to the light from the solar farms, which in turn attracted birds and perpetuated a cycle of death and injury.

One of the recommendations of the study, which stated that the number of deaths was likely underrepresented, was to retrofit solar panels to discourage birds and insects from congregating in the area.


Whenever I use Google my browser in this site, I get script errors, when I use Chrome or I.E I don't have any issues.
Just FYI
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
CHILD ABDUCTION EMERGENCY
KENTUCKY STATE POLICE FRANKFORT KY
RELAYED BY NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOUISVILLE KY
445 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014 /345 AM CDT THU MAY 8 2014/

AT THE REQUEST OF THE KENTUCKY STATE POLICE...THE KENTUCKY
EMERGENCY ALERT SYSTEM IS ACTIVATED TO ASSIST IN THE BROADCAST OF
AN AMBER ALERT.

AN AMBER ALERT HAS BEEN DECALRED...REPEATING...AN AMBER ALERT HAS
BEEN DECLARED.

AN AMBER ALERT HAS BEEN ISSUED IN KENTUCKY ON THE BEHALF OF THE
OHIO HIGHWAY PATROL AND CENTERVILLE OHIO POLICE. A 2 YEAR OLD MALE
TAKEN BY HIS MOTHER AT APPROXIMATELY 8 PM EDT FROM HIS RESIDENCE
IN CENTERVILLE OHIO. LOCAL POLICE IN OHIO BELIEVE THE CHILD IS IN
DANGER TO THE MENTAL STATUS OF THE MOTHER.

THE VICTIM AND SUSPECT MAY BE IN A LIME GREEN FORD FIESTA WITH
OHIO LICENSE PLATES AND NUMBER FWJ2295. THE SUSPECT IS A 35 YEAR
OLD WHITE FEMALE WITH BLONDE HAIR AND BLUE EYES. HEIGHT IS 5 FOOT
7 INCHES AND WEIGHT 143 POUNDS. THE VICTIM IS A 2 YEAR OLD WHITE
MALE WITH BROWN HAIR AND BLUE EYES. THE VICTIM IS 2 FEET TALL AND
WEIGHS 32 POUNDS.

IF YOU HAVE ANY INFORMATION PLEASE CALL THE CENTERVILLE OHIO
POLICE AT 937 433 7661 OR 911.
Quoting 1285. BaltimoreBrian:



Grammatica enim silent leges post mediam noctem


The rules for grammar fall silent after midnight. Did I get it right?
1310. MahFL
Quoting 1267. sar2401:


... As the cost of oil rises...


In the last 3 years oil prices have gone down.
1311. MahFL
Quoting 1266. Xulonn:

What kind of training does it take to be able to spot hail?


Instead of being sarcastic why don't you become a NWS trained Storm Spotter ?
1312. eds0736
Would you explain to me why I should consider a report from government that has lied to the American public at least 50 times in the last 6 years
1313. MahFL
Quoting 1312. eds0736:

Would you explain to me why I should consider a report from government that has lied to the American public at least 50 times in the last 6 years

No, next stupid political question ?
Quoting 1306. trunkmonkey:



Solar panels are killing millions of my beloved birds!

.





Let me know when you start fighting the major causes of bird death, please.



Oh, that includes current fossil fuel power plants which kill way more birds than solar and wind combined, in fact the numbers aren't even close.
No one ever suggests not building new buildings or power lines even though they kill more birds than all sources of energy production.

I'm waiting to jump on board to the "Tear down all infrastructure, Think of The Birds!!!" bandwagon.
a hurricane blog. watching north of the windward islands couple clouds there
NODC has updated, and ocean heat content is hightest on record for both 700m and 2000m

Link

Link
1318. StormWx
The 3.4 region is the lowest however its just about in weak El Nino status, just not there yet.



Happy Thursday everyone.
1319. StormWx
Quoting WaterWitch11:
GET READY FOR A NEW METEOR SHOWER: May 24th could be a big day for meteor astronomy. That's when Earth is expected to pass through a cloud of debris from comet 209P/LINEAR, producing a never-before-seen meteor shower. Meteor rates could exceed 200 per hour, and some forecasters have even mentioned the possibility of a meteor storm. Get the full story from Science@NASA.


Awesome! Nothing like waking up before the crack of dawn and staring at the sky to see some shooting stars. Other than meteor showers, me seeing the Auroras in North Carolina 10 years ago was pretty cool too.
From the Miami NWS Disco...

DURING THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK, THE WEATHER WILL
DEPEND ON THE PROGRESSION OF AN INVERTED TROUGH SHOWN BY BOTH THE
GFS AND ECMWF. SOME MODEL RUNS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING A LOW AS THE
RIDGE BREAKS DOWN AND A TROUGH DIGS IN FROM THE NW. MOST MODEL
RUNS KEEP THE LOW TO OUR EAST. MOISTURE DOES LOOK TO INCREASE
ACROSS SOUTH FL ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THIS FEATURE ON MONDAY, BUT
THE DEEPER MOISTURE AND BETTER CONVERGENCE WILL LIE EAST OF THE
TROUGH OR LOW. PLACEMENT THIS FAR OUT IN TIME IS UNCERTAIN...THOUGH
MOST RUNS SHOW THE BEST MOISTURE/QPF OVER THE BAHAMAS. /GREGORIA

1321. yoboi
Quoting 1312. eds0736:
Would you explain to me why I should consider a report from government that has lied to the American public at least 50 times in the last 6 years



but but but....this time is differentt you can trust them.........
Quoting 1257. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


it failed at its chance just an area of disturb weather that's it maybe after the crossing it will get another chance but not likely

pre season teasers got to love em


That Pacific disturbance is looking impressive, as it moves inland! We will see if the upper-level energy makes it into the western GULF. Looks like it is moving NE or NNE.
90E...

1324. pottery
Quoting Naga5000:


Let me know when you start fighting the major causes of bird death, please.



Oh, that includes current fossil fuel power plants which kill way more birds than solar and wind combined, in fact the numbers aren't even close.


Those numbers look ridiculously high ?

Hunting=120 million.
How many birds per capita is that ????
Hi everyone, great climate change debate last night, the only problem is there is nothing anyone can do about it. The real problem is not CO2 it's over population, there are 7 billion people and counting on this small planet and until something happens to change that this will be the real problem no matter how much CO2 we remove from the atmosphere. In nature when a species over populates it's environment what happens? Humans are a species of this planet so what do you think will happen? With the world warming through climate change, the experts say their will be more droughts and the El Niño coming on will also cause droughts around the world. If these droughts effect the food producing countries of the world what do you think will happen to the people of this planet where they do not produce enough food to feed themselves? Maybe this is natures way of balancing out the herd. I just hope one day in the near future we find a way to travel to the stars and find other planets to live on because we are already over populating this one and I don't want to become a lemming. There is to much money to be made in global warming, climate change and very little to be made in population control, here lies one of the true problems.
Dr Masters;
I am a soil scientist. In my view the whole climate change issue is irrelevant and rediculous. There is just as much information disproving it as there is proving it and showing it is actually getting colder over the last 15 years rather than warmer. It is discussed at length everywhere and I refuse to get involved. The soil shows no sign of changing and still, if properly cared for grows highly nutritious crops.

Have a great day.

Jim Fincham
Quoting 1326. equineopa:

Dr Masters;
I am a soil scientist. In my view the whole climate change issue is irrelevant and rediculous. There is just as much information disproving it as there is proving it and showing it is actually getting colder over the last 15 years rather than warmer. It is discussed at length everywhere and I refuse to get involved. The soil shows no sign of changing and still, if properly cared for grows highly nutritious crops.

Have a great day.

Jim Fincham


5,4,3,2,1......
1328. LargoFl
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
433 AM EDT THU MAY 8 2014

...DRY AND SEASONABLY WARM THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...

.SHORT TERM...

TODAY/TONIGHT...STATIONARY SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE WRN ATLC WITH
RIDGE BACK ACRS NE FL/SE GA WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE PERIOD.
THIS WILL COMBINE WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS AMPLIFYING OVER
THE REGION TO KEEP CONDITIONS DRY. THIS MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE
APPEARS TO BE SOMEWHAT "DIRTY" WITH SOME THIN UPPER LEVEL CLOUDINESS
BUT WILL KEEP SKY GRIDS IN THE MOSTLY SUNNY RANGE WITH 10-25% SKY
COVER TODAY...WITH A BIT MORE HIGH CLOUDS TONIGHT AND HAVE INCREASED
TO 25-40% OVERNIGHT AND PARTLY CLOUDY WORDING. LIGHT SOUTHERLY FLOW
WILL BECOME SELY AROUND 15 MPH AND GUSTY AT THE BEACH WITH ATLC
COAST SBRZ THAT SHOULD MOVE INLAND TO THE U.S. 301 CORRIDOR THIS
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL KEEP HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE 80S ALONG THE
COAST AND STILL A RETURN TO NEAR 90 DEGREES OVER INLAND AREAS.
PRECIPITABLE WATER AMOUNTS IN THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN GENERALLY
UNDER AN INCH AND STILL NOT QUITE ENOUGH TO SUPPORT PRECIP CHANCES.
TONIGHT...MAINLY FAIR SKIES WITH SOME INCREASE IN HIGH CLOUDS AND
LIGHT SOUTH FLOW WILL KEEP MIN TEMPS IN THE 60S INLAND AND NEAR 70
ALONG THE COAST.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL MAINTAIN ITS GRIP ON THE REGION ON FRIDAY WHICH
WILL BE THE LAST DAY OF 90 DEGREE HEAT FOR INLAND LOCATIONS BEFORE
TEMPS SETTLE BACK INTO THE 80S OVER THE WEEKEND. COASTAL LOCATIONS
WILL TOP OUT IN THE MID 80S ON FRIDAY BEFORE THE SEABREEZE PUSHES
THROUGH IN THE AFTERNOON. BREEZY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AT THE
COAST ON FRIDAY AFTERNOON BEHIND THE SEABREEZE WITH WINDS OF
AROUND 15 TO 20 MPH. SUBSIDENCE AND DRY AIR ALOFT WILL KEEP THE
ENTIRE AREA RAIN FREE ON FRIDAY.

THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN ON SATURDAY AND THE GFS
CONTINUES TO BREAK IT DOWN MUCH FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. WE WILL
GENERALLY FAVOR THE ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH KEEPS THE ENTIRE AREA
DRY ON SATURDAY...KEEPING THE STRONGEST UPPER ENERGY BLOCKED TO
OUR WEST. WILL NOT ENTIRELY REMOVE POPS ON SATURDAY BUT WILL ONLY
SHOW A 20% CHANCE MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST GEORGIA BUT ALSO ALONG
THE I-95 CORRIDOR LATE IN THE AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM WITH THE ATLANTIC
SEABREEZE. MID TO HIGH CLOUDS WILL EFFECTIVELY BLOCK ENOUGH
SUNSHINE TO WARRANT MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES FOR MOST AREAS WHICH WILL
ALSO HOLD TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 80S INLAND WITH HIGHS ONLY
IN THE LOW 80S AT THE COAST. A FEW UPPER 80S WILL BE POSSIBLE FOR
INLAND LOCATIONS ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL FLORIDA.

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE SEABREEZE WILL GET OFF TO AN EARLIER START ON SUNDAY WHICH
COULD SPARK A LIGHT SHOWER OR TWO ALONG THE COAST IN THE MORNING.
RAIN CHANCES WILL SHIFT INLAND WITH THE SEABREEZE DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND WE WILL CARRY A 30% CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
INTERIOR LOCATIONS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. TEMPS WILL
RANGE FROM AROUND 80 AT THE COAST TO THE UPPER 80S INLAND.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE REGION EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS AND LOW RAIN CHANCES. A FAIRLY STRONG COLD
FRONT...AT LEAST FOR MAY STANDARDS...WILL APPROACH THE REGION ON
WEDNESDAY. THIS FRONT WILL BE DRIVEN BY AN AGGRESSIVE UPPER
TROUGH WHICH AT THIS POINT HAS STRONG MODEL SUPPORT. THE FRONT
SHOULD PUSH THROUGH WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED SHOWERS OR STORMS
SOMETIME IN THE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON/NIGHT TIMEFRAME. THIS SCENARIO
WILL ALSO DEFLECT THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE
BAHAMAS AWAY FROM OUR AREA.

&&
epac system another one of those "just cant get a circulation going"
1330. StormWx
Oh lawdy, the alarmist and denialist will be at it again today lol. Many posts of articles and personal attacks to ensue, from both sides. Oh joy!
Quoting 1216. ColoradoBob1:

Make no mistake , we are running the greatest chemistry experiment in the history of Earth.

Every thing else is trash.


Yeah and we're using the only "lab sample" we've got.
Quoting equineopa:
Dr Masters;
I am a soil scientist. In my view the whole climate change issue is irrelevant and rediculous. There is just as much information disproving it as there is proving it and showing it is actually getting colder over the last 15 years rather than warmer. It is discussed at length everywhere and I refuse to get involved. The soil shows no sign of changing and still, if properly cared for grows highly nutritious crops.

Have a great day.

Jim Fincham
Thanks for your input. If you refuse to get involved, then there won't be any chance for discussion. I am not a soil scientist, but I do know that good soil is not the only factor needed to grow highly nutritious crops.
Quoting 1326. equineopa:

Dr Masters;
I am a soil scientist. In my view the whole climate change issue is irrelevant and rediculous. There is just as much information disproving it as there is proving it and showing it is actually getting colder over the last 15 years rather than warmer. It is discussed at length everywhere and I refuse to get involved. The soil shows no sign of changing and still, if properly cared for grows highly nutritious crops.

Have a great day.

Jim Fincham


We get a lot of first time posters who can't spell, claiming to be scientists on here.
Quoting 1307. trunkmonkey:

Whenever I use Google my browser in this site, I get script errors, when I use Chrome or I.E I don't have any issues.
Just FYI


Same on my end as well.
Good Morning.  Here is the recap of the short-term forecast from WPC for Conus.  Notice the continued snow for Nebraska and South Dakota (in May):

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
449 AM EDT Thu May 08 2014

Valid 12Z Thu May 08 2014 - 12Z Sat May 10 2014

 ...Flash flooding and widespread severe weather possible with storm system
developing over the central U.S....

...Rain and higher elevation snow return to the Northwest...

Active weather is expected across the central U.S. late this week as a
surface low deepening in the lee of the Colorado Rockies begins to lift
northeastward through the central Plains and Upper Midwest. An organized
axis of moderate to heavy rains should develop to the north and west of
the low track...and falling temperatures behind this system could even
lead to some late season accumulating snows over western portions of
Nebraska and South Dakota. Anomalous Gulf moisture surging northward
ahead of a trailing cold front pushing through the Plains and Mississippi
Valley will fuel widespread convection from the western Gulf Coast all the
way up to the Upper Midwest on Thursday. Developing thunderstorms will
have the potential to become strong to severe...and heavy rains within the
storms will pose a risk for flash flooding. On Friday...the active
weather will shift eastward with the cold front...impacting locations from
the central Gulf coast to the Great Lakes Region.


Quoting 1333. yonzabam:



We get a lot of first time posters who can't spell, claiming to be scientists on here.
I type very fast so sometimes I post before I look back at my mistakes.Thank goodness for the modify button.

Here's what CwG thinks of when it comes to the upcoming el nino...

MattRogers
8:29 AM EDT
I agree that this is no 1997 "super El Niño". That part is probably heading to fizzle-land as you note.

But the El Niño itself still looks to be coming and could be a moderate intensity event with a chance of being our strongest of the 2000s (but weaker than the 97-98 and 82-83 powerhouses).
(Crossing fingers..)

It's not showing because accuweather won't allow you to hotlink their images.but if we get a moderate el nino like I'm thinking then we could have another snowy winter.It's become quit rare for D.C to get back to back snowy winters.That hasn't happened since well..I can't remember...
1338. MahFL
Quoting 1316. islander101010:

a hurricane blog. watching north of the windward islands couple clouds there


Going to be a slow season if we are cloud watching.
1339. ncstorm
Good Morning..I see where the blog is going..you guys have fun today..work calls..

1340. NCstu
It's gonna be one hail of a day

GOES 14 Super Rapid Scan Loop of the Central U.S. Super Rapid Scan is 1 minute images.
Quoting 1281. QueensWreath:



YUP!
But what if the small amount that Cosmic rays did influence could be used to combat man made influence within our atmosphere? In other Words why have so many scientists reiterating something proven only to advance the argument and not furthering the research to do something about it?


To answer your first question, they don't. Real Climate had a decent discussion about this a while ago: Link .

To answer the second, climatologists aren't policy experts. That's not their job or focus. They're not experts in economics or engineering. They don't have any power. They point out the causes of the problem and, in a very general sense, what we need to do to about it. The solution is simple: cut emissions. The implementation is the tricky part and requires people, businesses, government, etc. to come up with an effective plan.
1343. MahFL
Quoting 1333. yonzabam:



We get a lot of first time posters who can't spell, claiming to be scientists on here.


To be fair you don't have to spell good to be a scientist....
1326.equineopa 8:18 AM EDT on May 08, 2014

If you consider Permafrost a type of soil composition, and I believe that it is, there has been significant and documented melt in Greenland and other parts of the Northern Latitudes in the Northern Hemisphere in recent decades that is directly correlated to global warming:

Bad news for Richard and, for the rest of us. Warmer temperatures are thawing the surface layer of land that covers most of Alaska and is known as permafrost (frozen below for at least two years in a row.) This thawing not only damages roads, buildings and airport runways, but also releases vast amounts of greenhouse gases that further warm the atmosphere not just over Richard's house but worldwide.


The nation's last frontier is in many ways its ground zero for climate change. Alaska's temperatures are rising twice as fast as those in the lower 48, prompting more sea ice to disappear in summer. While this may eventually open the Northwest Passage to sought-after tourism, oil exploration and trade, it also spells trouble as wildfires increase, roads buckle and tribal villages sink into the sea.



1345. MahFL
Quoting 1342. Xyrus2000:



... an effective plan...


Sometimes though all that can be agreed is paltry plan.
1346. Torito
Quoting 1340. NCstu:
It's gonna be one hail of a day



I see what you did there... :3


GEM going at hurricane predictions again...

192 hours:



222 hours:



240 hours:



It's a good thing that the Canadian model doesnt predict as good as their syrup tastes... or we would be wiped off the map during the seasons...
From an Alaska State website:

Is Alaska Melting?

Studies of permafrost in Alaska are providing valuable information about the potential effects of global warming.
One project at the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute has been monitoring temperatures and depth of permafrost since 1976. Precise temperature measurements have been made in a series of holes bored 200 feet deep along a line running north to south down the middle of the state along the Trans-Alaska Pipeline.

Study results show that much of the undisturbed discontinuous permafrost south of the Yukon River has warmed significantly and some of it is thawing. That raises the possibility that roads, buildings, and other structures on thawed areas will collapse. Another problem could arise as well: As permafrost thaws it can release methane and carbon dioxide, gases that contribute to the green house effect and accelerate global warming.

Quoting 1333. yonzabam:



We get a lot of first time posters who can't spell, claiming to be scientists on here.


There are a lot of loooong time posters who can't spell either, but apparently we are supposed to consider it charming. I personally find it difficult to take anyone seriously who doesn't have a grasp of basic grammar.
Quoting 1324. pottery:



Those numbers look ridiculously high ?

Hunting=120 million.
How many birds per capita is that ????


Roughly .38 birds per person.
Quoting 1326. equineopa:

Dr Masters;
I am a soil scientist. In my view the whole climate change issue is irrelevant and rediculous. There is just as much information disproving it as there is proving it and showing it is actually getting colder over the last 15 years rather than warmer. It is discussed at length everywhere and I refuse to get involved. The soil shows no sign of changing and still, if properly cared for grows highly nutritious crops.

Have a great day.

Jim Fincham


I highly doubt your a scientist of any type.

1. Your claim of "just as much evidence" is pure nonsense. The peer reviewed articles on the topic overwhelmingly show a warming world, from Nature to the IPCC reports.

2. If you were a real soil scientist I would expect you to have a much better understanding of statistics. At best you're falling victim to the oft repeated but debunked "no warming in 15 years" nonsense.

3. What do you mean "the soil isn't showing changes"? Are you talking about moisture content? Chemical composition? Distribution patterns? The most dramatic effects happening to soil as a result of warming is happening in the northern latitudes where the tree line has advanced and the permafrost is melting. Both are having an impact on the soil chemistry and composition there. What exactly are you looking for?
1351. Torito
Quoting 1350. Xyrus2000:


I highly doubt your a scientist of any type.

1. Your claim of "just as much evidence" is pure nonsense. The peer reviewed articles on the topic overwhelmingly show a warming world, from Nature to the IPCC reports.

2. If you were a real soil scientist I would expect you to have a much better understanding of statistics. At best you're falling victim to the oft repeated but debunked "no warming in 15 years" nonsense.

3. What do you mean "the soil isn't showing changes"? Are you talking about moisture content? Chemical composition? Distribution patterns? The most dramatic effects happening to soil as a result of warming is happening in the northern latitudes where the tree line has advanced and the permafrost is melting. Both are having an impact on the soil chemistry and composition there. What exactly are you looking for?


He seems to be one to me.... A professional at the least....

1. a little about him

2. his business

He is a "Certified professional soil scientist"..
The report is a web savvy call to action. It doesn't seem that different from the IPCC. I like the regional focus sections.
I do think it is missing the mark on ET and its effects on water supply in the SouthEast. Our rainfall is shifting seasonality in Florida with more rain in the hot months and less in the cooler winter months. Since ET and Rainfall are practically equal here, with tropical storms shifting the balance, more rain during the high ET loss season and less during the cool, groundwater and water supply recharge season, is not good or a boon to water supply. That 27% in heavy precipitation events also means more of what falls runs off rather than soaking into our aquifer.

Dyslexics that can't spell do make great scientists. We just have to spell check ALOT when communicating.
1354. Torito
90E supposedly going to sit there, according to ensemble runs.



Maybe it will go and sit in the gulf for a bit..

1355. yoboi
Quoting 1351. Torito:


He seems to be one to me.... A professional at the least....

1. a little about him

2. his business

He is a "Certified professional soil scientist"..


Guess he was not part of the 97 %......
A certified soil scientist focused on fracking... Would there be a link to the oil industry there?
1357. Torito
Whats that near Africa?..





probably nothing of importance..
1358. Torito
Quoting 1355. yoboi:


Guess he was not part of the 97 %......


I, myself, am neutral on this issue. To be honest, I'll probably be dead before this causes any 'life changing' matters, anyways..
1359. MahFL
Quoting 1348. CarlitosAtun:



There are a lot of loooong time posters who can't spell either, but apparently we are supposed to consider it charming. I personally find it difficult to take anyone seriously who doesn't have a grasp of basic grammar.


I got news for you, grammar is not actually spelling, it's the correct use of spaces and apostrophes etc.
1360. sar2401
Quoting CarlitosAtun:


There are a lot of loooong time posters who can't spell either, but apparently we are supposed to consider it charming. I personally find it difficult to take anyone seriously who doesn't have a grasp of basic grammar.

Sometmes it takes a lot of werk to spel rite...:-)
1361. zampaz
House Appropriators Poised to Reject NOAA's SIDAR Plan for TSIS, Other Instruments
The House Appropriation's Committee's draft report on the FY2015 Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) FY2015 budget includes no funding for NOAA's new plan for launching three instruments still looking for a ride to space after cancellation of the NPOESS program. In the FY2015 budget request, NOAA grouped them together into the Solar Irradiance-Data-Rescue (SIDAR) mission, but the draft bill rejected the proposal. The committee will mark up the bill later today (May 8).
http://www.spacepolicyonline.com/news/house-appro priators-posied-to-reject-noaas-sidar-plan-for-tsi s-other-instruments
Nice.
In 1193, yoboi attempted to present an argument from Skeptical Science as supporting his point that CO2 contributed by humans is minor. What he actually did was quote the denialist "myth" that the article was debunking! That's exceptionally dishonest.

Link
1363. sar2401
Quoting Torito:
90E supposedly going to sit there, according to ensemble runs.



Maybe it will go and sit in the gulf for a bit..


It looks like it's moving onshore right now. I think 90E is going to be the little engine that couldn't....
1364. hydrus
Quoting 1360. sar2401:


Sometmes it takes a lot of werk to spel rite...:-)
Good morning Sar..There is the spell check thing that computers have ..Some do not use it..
1365. yoboi
Quoting 1362. schistkicker:
Nice.
In 1193, yoboi attempted to present an argument from Skeptical Science as supporting his point that CO2 contributed by humans is minor. What he actually did was quote the denialist "myth" that the article was debunking! That's exceptionally dishonest.

Link


Does C02 impact the climate???????
Quoting 1325. NativeSun:

Hi everyone, great climate change debate last night, the only problem is there is nothing anyone can do about it ... There is to much money to be made in global warming, climate change and very little to be made in population control, here lies one of the true problems.


Of course something can be done about it:

At some point in our very near future there will be the reduction of climate gases, this is an absolute certainty. Mitigation will occur either as the outcome of rational policy and good management on our part or as the result of national bankruptcies and massive increases in poverty. Poor people strip hillsides of vegetation so that they might be able to cook, they do not own autos or import merchandise from China. What is underway in many vulnerable parts of the world such as Greece is %u2018conservation by other means%u2019 as the Greeks are reduced to penury and are unable to afford resources.

[...]

A better strategy would be to abandon the frontal assault on carbon and target non-carbon forms of pollution and by doing so mitigate carbon emissions indirectly. The strategy is to break the main problem into smaller components and deal with them in detail. For instance there are multiple polluting gases besides carbon dioxide; there are nitrous oxides, hydrofluorocarbons, methane- and related, perfluorocarbons and sulfur hexafluoride: some of these emissions are controlled, others such as carbon gas emissions have been reduced to some degree in the US and Europe due to the poor economy.

http://www.economic-undertow.com/2013/05/30/tackl ing-the-carbon-behemoth/
1367. sar2401
Quoting Torito:


I see what you did there... :3


GEM going at hurricane predictions again...

192 hours:



222 hours:



240 hours:



It's a good thing that the Canadian model doesnt predict as good as their syrup tastes... or we would be wiped off the map during the seasons...

LOL. That's certainly true. There would have been one hurricane per weekend in the Gulf last year, headed right for my house. After about the third weekend, I didn't pay too much attention to the CMC. :-)
1368. zampaz
Quoting 1204. yoboi:




Do the Math....Still can NOT impact more than 10 %....

Show us the math, yoboi. That's what we're asking. Give me numbers I can plug into matlab.
The Arctic is melting.
It's plain even for those who can't take a derivative to see the changes our small planet is undergoing.
And we know why the planet is changing to a great degree of confidence.

Quoting 1359. MahFL:



I got news for you, grammar is not actually spelling, it's the correct use of spaces and apostrophes etc.
Also proper verb tense. 

Quoting 1365. yoboi:
Does C02 impact the climate???????
After all those years of study you bragged about, don't you know the answer to that????????
1371. ricderr
it looks like a fellow blogger wrote this one from newscientist

excerpt

World is unprepared for major El Niño later this year

07 May 2014 by Michael Slezak
Magazine issue 2968. Subscribe and save
For similar stories, visit the Climate Change Topic Guide
Wild weather is coming in 2014, with floods, storms and droughts expected around the Pacific, but little is being done to protect the people on the front line

THE weather is preparing to go wild, and will wreak havoc and death around the globe later this year. An El Niño, a splurge of warm water in the Pacific Ocean, is coming. It will unleash floods in the Americas, while South-East Asia and Australia face drought. Yet little is being done to address these consequences.


1372. MahFL
Quoting 1369. FLwolverine:


Also proper verb tense. 


That was included in the "etc.".
1373. sar2401
Quoting Econundertow:


Of course something can be done about it:


Your link does not work. This link does. I must say, you have managed to collect one of the biggest laundry lists of things to do in terms of pollution I've ever seen. If you had to pick just three, what would they be?
1374. MahFL
Quoting 1371. ricderr:

... Yet little is being done to address these consequences.





Ok brainiac how do you prevent an El Nino or mitigate the consequences ?
Quoting 1319. StormWx:



Awesome! Nothing like waking up before the crack of dawn and staring at the sky to see some shooting stars. Other than meteor showers, me seeing the Auroras in North Carolina 10 years ago was pretty cool too.


I bet...
There is a Fincham Soil Services inc. in Chardon OH. With the name Jim Fincham as the owner.

Link

Maybe, someone can do the honors and call that number to find out if this guy is legit and posted on wunderground today, could be somebody completely different.
Quoting 1359. MahFL:



I got news for you, grammar is not actually spelling, it's the correct use of spaces and apostrophes etc.


I beg to differ. Grammar is defined as the whole system or structure of a language or languages in general. I contend that correct spelling is a critical part of the system or structure of a language. While you are entitled to consider grammar as nothing more than spaces, apostrophes, etc., that doesn't necessarily make it an accepted or widespread definition. However, I am a scientist (MSc in Geology, P.G.) and in my opinion, I find it extremely difficult to take seriously anything written in such a way that conveys a general sense of the author's lack of education, the most glaring of which is their inability to properly use the language. I'm not referring to typos. A lot of people type quickly, especially in this comment section, and they will make mistakes.
I know my grammar is awful as I still have problems with comma splices which is why I am not an English major. You wouldn't see me telling people to correct their spelling or grammar. if I can read it and understand what it says then that is fine. If I was writing a paper for school or to be graded then I would go back and revise this paragraph as I know there is grammar errors with it.
1379. Grothar


1380. sar2401
Quoting hydrus:
Good morning Sar..There is the spell check thing that computers have ..Some do not use it..

Good morning, hydrus. Thanks goodness for spell checkers. Way back in the antediluvian age, I had a secretary who could take my terrible spelling and make into something that looked like I got further than fifth grade. The, one day, the company announced all the secretaries for us lowlifes were fired. They plopped this thing that looked like a TV with a keyboard on my desk, said it was a word processor, gave me a book, and told me I had a week to learn how to use it. The word processor was called Spellbinder. It was incredibly difficult to use, slower than molasses...but it had what we now call a spellchecker! It took about a minute per page for normal people to spell check, but about three minutes per page for me, since I only had every third word spelled right. Still, I'm certain that program saved my job. So I kind of like spellcheckers. :-)
Quoting 1376. GTstormChaserCaleb:

There is a Fincham Soil Services inc. in Chardon OH. With the name Jim Fincham as the owner.

Link

Maybe, someone can do the honors and call that number to find out if this guy is legit and posted on wunderground today, could be somebody completely different.


Does it really matter? I mean, seriously, does it make one iota of difference if the guy owns a soil company or not, it doesn't mean he keeps up with publications and research in his own field.

Stop playing internet detective everyone, it's creepy.
Good Morning All,

Let me see: I have been on here since 2005 and well if you know me then you already know "I Can't Spell", nor is my "Grammer" good or not.
I was and still am hooked on Phonics and hope you all can atleast figure out what I'm saying or typing for that matter....

So on that note I will say that I'm sorry for any missed spelled words and move on....

Just saying

Taco :o)
1383. Grothar
Quoting 1378. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I know my grammar is awful as I still have problems with comma splices which is why I am not an English major. You wouldn't see me telling people to correct their spelling or grammar. if I can read it and understand what it says then that is fine. If I was writing a paper for school or to be graded then I would go back and revise this paragraph as I know there is grammar errors with it.


This should read as follows.
I know my grammar is awful since I am still having a problem with the proper placement of commas. This is the reason I am not an English major. You would not find me correcting the grammar or spelling of anyone. If (capital I) I am able to comprehend what is written, it is fine.

If I were (not was; Subjunctive mode) writing a paper for school for which I would be graded, I would then revise any paragraph in which there may be errors.

(Caleb, you know I'm joshing with you)
1384. Patrap
Quoting 1330. StormWx:

Oh lawdy, the alarmist and denialist will be at it again today lol. Many posts of articles and personal attacks to ensue, from both sides. Oh joy!


The Scientific realist are here, so relax.


No toes will be impacted, soooooooooo,.....
1385. sar2401
Quoting zampaz:
House Appropriators Poised to Reject NOAA's SIDAR Plan for TSIS, Other Instruments
The House Appropriation's Committee's draft report on the FY2015 Commerce-Justice-Science (CJS) FY2015 budget includes no funding for NOAA's new plan for launching three instruments still looking for a ride to space after cancellation of the NPOESS program. In the FY2015 budget request, NOAA grouped them together into the Solar Irradiance-Data-Rescue (SIDAR) mission, but the draft bill rejected the proposal. The committee will mark up the bill later today (May 8).
http://www.spacepolicyonline.com/news/house-appro priators-posied-to-reject-noaas-sidar-plan-for-tsi s-other-instruments

Sorry, NOAA gets no sympathy from me on this one. NOAA's first job is operational weather forecasting. They are unable to keep NOAA weather radio transmitters, rain gauges, and radars functioning, as we saw in the late April severe weather outbreak. While climate monitoring is important. immediate, first line weather data is more important. Fix existing problems before blowing more millions on programs that still haven't gotten the payloads off the ground.
1386. MahFL
Quoting 1377. CarlitosAtun:



I beg to differ.

Your pretty much wrong.
I just checked the Wiki on "grammar" and on the whole page the word "spell" does not appear, not one single time.
1387. Patrap
Grammar Imperial Trooper's ?
1388. ncstorm
Quoting 1381. Naga5000:



Does it really matter? I mean, seriously, does it make one iota of difference if the guy owns a soil company or not, it doesn't mean he keeps up with publications and research in his own field.

Stop playing internet detective everyone, it's creepy.


well yeah it actually does..

one..Xyrus "doubted" his credentials and it seems he is legit which means Xyrus is wrong and I still don't see an apology from him stating so..

two, it would seem that someone who is an expert on soil actually disagreed with Dr. Masters and well you guys can't having anyone who knows soil as his life work being right and Dr. Masters perhaps being wrong..so I can see why you are upset with people verifying who this person is..that's like me finding out Superman really didn't have super powers as you finding out that Dr. Masters could possibly be wrong which I'm not saying who is right..just objectively giving an opinion and in no way attacking Dr. Masters (Xulonn)

and all those who want to correct my spelling and grammar, please go ahead..I'm sure that 2014 internet award of Spell/Grammar Check Grandmaster is right at your fingertips.
1389. yoboi
Quoting 1381. Naga5000:


Does it really matter? I mean, seriously, does it make one iota of difference if the guy owns a soil company or not, it doesn't mean he keeps up with publications and research in his own field.

Stop playing internet detective everyone, it's creepy.


Oh but it was ok contacting the 18 yr long El Nino guy.....SMH
1390. Patrap
www.spc.noaa.gov

A Moderate Risk of Severe Thunderstorms is Forecast Today and/or Tonight

The greatest threat today will be this afternoon with an arc of thunderstorms forecast to develop into supercells over parts of Minnesota and Iowa, then move northeastward. Tornadoes--some potentially strong--as well as large, damaging hail and sporadic severe gusts are expected. Damaging hail will be the main severe-storm threat over parts of Oklahoma, Kansas and southward toward central Texas.
For additional details, see the latest Day 1 Convective Outlook.
1391. Patrap
I may have "Soiled" myself after that rant.

LoL
Quoting 1383. Grothar:


This should read as follows.
I know my grammar is awful since I am still having a problem with the proper placement of commas. This is the reason I am not an English major. You would not find me correcting the grammar or spelling of anyone. If (capital I) I am able to comprehend was is written, it is fine.

If I were (not was; Subjunctive mode) writing a paper for school for which I would be graded, I would then revise any paragraph in which there may be errors.

(Caleb, you know I'm joshing with you)


Grothar, you get an A for ancient English spelling and grammar.
1393. Patrap
Yeah, a "Guy" comes to the World's best communicator of Climate Change blog entry,..to tell us all that AGW is "wrong".

O the Thursday Irony, it does burn bright.

You do know where we are blogging, right ?

This is not Bloomberg, nor wattsupwitdat.

Quoting 1379. Grothar:






Ahh how time flies. It seems as though it was only yesterday that we were taking a gander at various blobs. Once again, the season is upon us.
From the inestimable Hunter at DailyKos:

CNN Crossfire host S.E. Cupp accused "Science Guy" Bill Nye on Tuesday of using his professional experience as a tool with which to intimidate global warming skeptics.

"Isn't it a problem when science guys attempt to bully other people?" Cupp asked Nye, before coming to the aid of Heritage Foundation economist Nicholas Loris.


Full stop. Nope. Nothing needs more to be said. You can sum up the entire New American Culture in those two sentences; everything about the role of the media in pitting propaganda against facts, everything about the ideological resentment of expertise, everything about the insistence that the opinions of those who have made it their life's work to study a thing be given exactly as much credence as—and no more than—someone whose opinion on the subject may be entirely uninformed but whose illiterate or innumerate or for-hire opinion may be deeply held. We will suffer droughts, and floods, and crop failures, and the little maps in the garden catalogs that show which plants will grow in your area of the country will shift colors, then shift again, but what is important is that the opinion of the prominently uninformed, or the opinion of those who have hung out their shingle, the one on which they have written will have prominent opinions for food; inquire within, be given equal weight to The Facts of how it is happening and why.

That, right there.
Quoting 1388. ncstorm:



well yeah it actually does..

one..Xyrus "doubted" his credentials and it seems he is legit which means Xyrus is wrong and I still don't see an apology from him stating so..

two, it would seem that someone who is an expert on soil actually disagreed with Dr. Masters and well you guys can't having anyone who knows soil as his life work being right and Dr. Masters perhaps being wrong..so I can see why you are upset with people verifying who this person is..that's like me finding out Superman really didn't have super powers as you finding out that Dr. Masters could possibly be wrong which I'm not saying who is right..just objectively giving an opinion and in no way attacking Dr. Masters (Xulonn)

and all those who want to correct my spelling and grammar, please go ahead..I'm sure that 2014 internet award of Spell/Grammar Check Grandmaster is right at your fingertips.


What does being a soil scientist have to do with disagreement over climate science? Just because he is a scientist doesn't mean he is active in the research and publication end of his science. It's an appeal to authority as a scientist, but he may not even know what is going on outside of his business which is in one small region of the U.S.

Let's not make assumptions on what he knows because of his title.

Doing soil tests for commercial or residential purposes in Ohio is not the same as working as a researcher. Don't fool yourself.
Weather must not be very active, lightning is not very active at least not compared to finger strikes on keyboards.

Quoting fireflymom:
Weather must not be very active, lightning is not very active at least not compared to finger strikes on keyboards. Hoping for weather here.

1399. ncstorm
You know I wont comment to 1393 because I know you go tattling to the mods and admin when you claim you are being attacked. I think its wise that if you don't want to go telling the teachers to put me in a timeout that you should perhaps follow your own advice about putting one on "iggy"..

Its helps with the blood pressure levels also..you have a good day blogging aaaalllllll dddaaayyyyy and defending the truth..
Quoting CarlitosAtun:


I beg to differ. Grammar is defined as the whole system or structure of a language or languages in general. I contend that correct spelling is a critical part of the system or structure of a language. While you are entitled to consider grammar as nothing more than spaces, apostrophes, etc., that doesn't necessarily make it an accepted or widespread definition. However, I am a scientist (MSc in Geology, P.G.) and in my opinion, I find it extremely difficult to take seriously anything written in such a way that conveys a general sense of the author's lack of education, the most glaring of which is their inability to properly use the language. I'm not referring to typos. A lot of people type quickly, especially in this comment section, and they will make mistakes.
Two things. 1) Grammar does not equal spelling. (add: That is, these are two different and separate language skills) 2) Consider there may be persons who blog here who are not as fortunate as you - persons, for instance, whose speech might be less than perfect and who are unable to type and must dictate comments.

Thoughts expressed and enthusiasm for one's subject trump spelling and grammar. Always have. Always will.
1401. Patrap
With the properly Saved links, one can tell what iz going on weather wise Globally.
I swear this blog has an incredible lack of critical thinking sometimes.

We won't trust the overwhelming research by actively researching and publishing scientists, but we should trust the word of a guy on the blog who says something with no supporting evidence.

And if we aren't sure, let's find him and call him, "Hello? This is the internet calling, we just want to ask you some questions!"





1403. Patrap
All Products

No Valid Watches

Quoting 1388. ncstorm:


well yeah it actually does..

one..Xyrus "doubted" his credentials and it seems he is legit which means Xyrus is wrong and I still don't see an apology from him stating so..

two, it would seem that someone who is an expert on soil actually disagreed with Dr. Masters and well you guys can't having anyone who knows soil as his life work being right and Dr. Masters perhaps being wrong..so I can see why you are upset with people verifying who this person is..that's like me finding out Superman really didn't have super powers as you finding out that Dr. Masters could possibly be wrong which I'm not saying who is right..just objectively giving an opinion and in no way attacking Dr. Masters (Xulonn)

and all those who want to correct my spelling and grammar, please go ahead..I'm sure that 2014 internet award of Spell/Grammar Check Grandmaster is right at your fingertips.
Too bad the guy isn't willing to stick around and discuss anything. It would be interesting to hear from a soil scientist about the melting permafrost. 
1405. Patrap
1406. Patrap
1407. Grothar
Quoting 1397. fireflymom:

Weather must not be very active, lightning is not very active at least not compared to finger strikes on keyboards.



That deserves a lol.
1408. ncstorm
Quoting 1402. Naga5000:

I swear this blog has an incredible lack of critical thinking sometimes.

We won't trust the overwhelming research by actively researching and publishing scientists, but we should trust the word of a guy on the blog who says something with no supporting evidence.

And if we aren't sure, let's find him and call him, "Hello? This is the internet calling, we just want to ask you some questions!"








but the same internet can discredit his credentials..rrriigghhtt..I'm sure that man is working instead of blogging so he might be busy and wouldn't want to answer questions from WU internet detectives..

and speaking of work, I have to go again..later..
Quoting 1408. ncstorm:



but the same internet can discredit his credentials..rrriigghhtt..I'm sure that man is working instead of blogging so he might be busy and wouldn't want to answer questions from WU internet detectives..

and speaking of work, I have to go again..later..


I really can't believe you are defending tracking someone down from the blog and cold calling them.
1410. Patrap
Quoting 1396. Naga5000:


What does being a soil scientist have to do with disagreement over climate science? Just because he is a scientist doesn't mean he is active in the research and publication end of his science. It's an appeal to authority as a scientist, but he may not even know what is going on outside of his business which is in one small region of the U.S.

Let's not make assumptions on what he knows because of his title.

Doing soil tests for commercial or residential purposes in Ohio is not the same as working as a researcher. Don't fool yourself.


The same reason that a mechanical engineer (Bill Nye) is able to debate climate change on CNN. You know what, I'm a meteorologist, can I give everyone on the blog some financial advice. But, I'm on TV, so what I tell you must be true.
Quoting 1383. Grothar:



This should read as follows.
I know my grammar is awful since I am still having a problem with the proper placement of commas. This is the reason I am not an English major. You would not find me correcting the grammar or spelling of anyone. If (capital I) I am able to comprehend what is written, it is fine.

If I were (not was; Subjunctive mode) writing a paper for school for which I would be graded, I would then revise any paragraph in which there may be errors.

(Caleb, you know I'm joshing with you)
Thanks Grothar :)
Quoting washingtonian115:
(Crossing fingers..)

It's not showing because accuweather won't allow you to hotlink their images.but if we get a moderate el nino like I'm thinking then we could have another snowy winter.It's become quit rare for D.C to get back to back snowy winters.That hasn't happened since well..I can't remember...


(65-66, 66-67) (77-78, 78-79) (86-87, 87-88).

Yeah it's been awhile or I've missed one.

My hunch is either snowy (El Nino) or drowned and warm (extreme El Nino). Either way I'll deal with it.
1414. ncstorm
Quoting 1409. Naga5000:



I really can't believe you are defending tracking someone down from the blog and cold calling them.


I never said that Naga..you stated why would it matter about who he was and I reply back with my answer..

have a good one..
Quoting 1411. Chucktown:



The same reason that a mechanical engineer (Bill Nye) is able to debate climate change on CNN. You know what, I'm a meteorologist, can I give everyone on the blog some financial advice. But, I'm on TV, so what I tell you must be true.


What goes on in the media is utter B.S., along with government. We have non educators setting education policy. Non economists writing budgets based on campaign promises.

I don't think we are far off on agreement there.
1416. yoboi
Quoting 1409. Naga5000:


I really can't believe you are defending tracking someone down from the blog and cold calling them.




That's a theory endorsed by Dr Russ Schnell, a scientist doing atmospheric research at Mauna Loa Observatory, 11,000 feet up on Hawaii. "It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Ninos are going to become more frequent, and they're going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we'll go into a permanent El Nino."

"So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we'll have El Nino upon El Nino, and that will become the norm. And you'll have an El Nino, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years," he said.

Link

Ahhhhh but you sure supported contacting Dr Russ Schnell......
My two cents on the blog confusion regarding scientists:

Most people, myself included, who get degrees in science do not continue on in their studies all the way through to a Ph.D. The scientists who publish in peer-reviewed journals are typically Ph.D.s or Ph.D. candidates.

I don't have the exact breakdown by group, but scientists who get their Bachelor's degree and stop there, usually go to work in one of four places: industry, government, non-profit groups or environmental consulting. In my field the overwhelming majority goes into environmental consulting.

As scientists we may have an easier grasp on much of the CC material, but it does not mean we are in the 'upper level' of scientists who do original research, publish, or participate as a 'peer' in the peer review process.

Much of the disagreement regarding CC/AGW seems to emanate from scientists who are not researchers. I know that amongst co-workers and friends who are scientists who are either uncertain about, or disagree with, CC/AGW, none of them have pursued a Ph.D. in their field. Further, almost none of them have kept up with any of the literature regarding CC/AGW. The oft-cited petition denying CC/AGW was overwhelmingly filled with non-research scientists.

The poster below is a soil scientist. This does not mean he is a research scientist. It appears his career has gone the way of most - environmental consulting. This is not an attempt to besmirch his accomplishments. He appears to operate his own business; kudos to him.

I am quite proud of the education I do have. I am quite confident in my knowledge of certain areas. However, I am not a Ph.D. who is currently active in research and publishing in the CC/AGW arena. To equate my opinion with that of someone who is does not make sense.



1419. FBMinFL
Quoting 1401. Patrap:

With the properly Saved links, one can tell what iz going on weather wise Globally.


Indeed. Do you happen to have a list of your favorite sites?
1420. Patrap
90E's moisture Ene bound.


1421. JRRP
1422. Patrap
Quoting 1419. FBMinFL:



Indeed. Do you happen to have a list of your favorite sites?


I use the box at the top of this and every wu page mostly to be truthful.

Or this, www.nhc.noaa.gov/satellite.php

and dis here un.

RAMMB
Quoting 1416. yoboi:





That's a theory endorsed by Dr Russ Schnell, a scientist doing atmospheric research at Mauna Loa Observatory, 11,000 feet up on Hawaii. "It appears that we have a very good case for suggesting that the El Ninos are going to become more frequent, and they're going to become more intense and in a few years, or a decade or so, we'll go into a permanent El Nino."

"So instead of having cool water periods for a year or two, we'll have El Nino upon El Nino, and that will become the norm. And you'll have an El Nino, that instead of lasting 18 months, lasts 18 years," he said.

Link

Ahhhhh but you sure supported contacting Dr Russ Schnell......
Very cool read yoboi. A little bit of taboo there.

"El Nino events have been occurring for thousands of years. It is a natural phenomenon that has always had a profound effect on those who live within its influence.

High in the Peruvian Andes, archeologists have discovered the skeletons of what they believe are human sacrifices, linked to El Nino events, at Inca temples of the Sun and the Moon.

Dr Steve Bourget from the University of East Anglia believes the 80 victims were sacrificed to placate the Gods during El Nino rainstorms. "On the north coast of Peru it almost never rains ... it rains like this only during the time of Nino's."
Quoting 1420. Patrap:

90E's moisture Ene bound.



upper level segment is crossing over bound
Quoting 1378. GTstormChaserCaleb:

I know my grammar is awful as I still have problems with comma splices which is why I am not an English major. You wouldn't see me telling people to correct their spelling or grammar. if I can read it and understand what it says then that is fine. If I was writing a paper for school or to be graded then I would go back and revise this paragraph as I know there is grammar errors with it.

Exactly! Only when poor grammar, spelling, or wording coherence in blog comment situations is obvious enough so that it starts to get annoying or hinders reading comprehension is when it is a problem.
1426. pottery
When does this Semantics class end?
I find it totally incomprehensible.
Poor 90E anyway now it's a naked spin with whatever convection left over off to the NE currently appears to be moving slowly well not that slowly off E-ESE near 16.8°N 103.0°W ... It maybe is moving WSW not sure we will have to wait for more sattelite images lets just call it nearly stationary
1428. Patrap
Another good page to save for the "Season"


wunderground external links for Hurricanes
Quoting 1415. Naga5000:


What goes on in the media is utter B.S., along with government. We have non educators setting education policy. Non economists writing budgets based on campaign promises.

I don't think we are far off on agreement there.


Then if "climate change" is such a hot issue with government and the media, why should we believe it. The American public forgets things very quickly. We live in the now, no one remembers that we haven't had a major hurricane strike the US since 2005, but we remember the brutal winter that impacted the majority of the country, so the media and government has made a little "extra" push in recent weeks to drill this so called "climate change" into everyones head.
Quoting 1401. Patrap:

With the properly Saved links, one can tell what iz going on weather wise Globally.


And back them up! My laptop went belly up in January, and I lost everything.

For weather, I'm starting from scratch again on the links :(
1431. Patrap
90E Remnant Swirl and cloud cover

1432. Grothar
Quoting 1410. Patrap:




Why are you posting a map from 2011? Get with the program.
1433. Patrap


Quoting 1430. LAbonbon:



And back them up! My laptop went belly up in January, and I lost everything.

For weather, I'm starting from scratch again on the links :(


I backup my links and "other" needed saved items in my wu mail so their server can hold it and vouch for me if needed.

: P
Off topic, but the NFL Draft is today. I wonder which team will be the lucky recipient of Johnny "Football"?
1435. nymore
Bill Nye is not a climate expert, he is a mechanical engineer. Maybe he could give some advice from his knowledge  on how nuclear power reactors work (well maybe not) or maybe explain to us more about the pull of gravity in forming storms (well maybe not). 
Good old Bill Nye always good for a laugh.
deleted - operator error :/
1438. sar2401
Quoting pottery:
When does this Semantics class end?
I find it totally incomprehensible.

You should read the Day 3 outlook from the SPC if you really want something incomprehensible. :-)

It's sunny, warm, and increasingly humid here in the Heart of Dixie. 83 with a dewpoint of 67, with a SW wind. It looks like the approaching trough will be held off by the ridge to the east, which is reluctant to move...again. We will get some thunderstorms tomorrow and Saturday, but nothing severe. After that, it looks like a dirty ridge, with a chance of thunderstorms each day until at least Wednesday. Then it might get cold...or hot. The models are unclear on such things past five days.

How is the weather in the land of bitumen?
Quoting 1425. opal92nwf:


Exactly! Only when poor grammar, spelling, or wording coherence in blog comment situations is obvious enough so that it starts to get annoying or hinders reading comprehension is when it is a problem.
I have been in comments section like that. ESPN before they changed over to Facebook comments. Whenever there was a topic on LeBron James, Tim Tebow, Jeremy Lin, or Peyton Manning comments would be flying faster then the speed of light over there. It was fun while it lasted over there.
1440. Patrap
1442. sar2401
Quoting GTstormChaserCaleb:
Off topic, but the NFL Draft is today. I wonder which team will be the lucky recipient of Johnny "Football"?

The Browns, but they'll sell him immediately and pocket the profit. Wouldn't want to get fans in Cleveland too excited.
The precip seems to have shifted west from yesterday's forecast. Hello, Texas!

Quoting 1431. Patrap:

90E Remnant Swirl and cloud cover


RIP 90-E probably another byproduct of the 2013 Hurricane Season. :D
1445. pottery
Quoting sar2401:

You should read the Day 3 outlook from the SPC if you really want something incomprehensible. :-)

It's sunny, warm, and increasingly humid here in the Heart of Dixie. 83 with a dewpoint of 67, with a SW wind. It looks like the approaching trough will be held off by the ridge to the east, which is reluctant to move...again. We will get some thunderstorms tomorrow and Saturday, but nothing severe. After that, it looks like a dirty ridge, with a chance of thunderstorms each day until at least Wednesday. Then it might get cold...or hot. The models are unclear on such things past five days.

How is the weather in the land of bitumen?

Hot, dry, with the slight chance of no change being highly possible.

:):))

Doing good here.
1446. Grothar
Well boys and girls. I have to go for awhile. I am going to see if my soil has changed since last night. Have a good argument (I mean conversation) on the blog today.
Quoting 1349. Naga5000:



Roughly .38 birds per person.

There are only 13 million hunters in the US and less than 25% of those hunt birds. Still seems a little high.
1448. Patrap
Where some perceive argument, I see a opportunity to teach.

Grumpiness is a choice...not a opinion.

: P
1449. pottery
Quoting Grothar:
Well boys and girls. I have to go for awhile. I am going to see if my soil has changed since last night. Have a good argument (I mean conversation) on the blog today.


We trust that you will keep the results of your investigation to yourself.
This is a family blog, you know…..

:):)), good to see you, Gro.
If you look closely you can see a couple areas of spin north of PR.

Quoting 1395. Neapolitan:

From the inestimable Hunter at DailyKos:



Full stop. Nope. Nothing needs more to be said. You can sum up the entire New American Culture in those two sentences; everything about the role of the media in pitting propaganda against facts, everything about the ideological resentment of expertise, everything about the insistence that the opinions of those who have made it their life's work to study a thing be given exactly as much credence as—and no more than—someone whose opinion on the subject may be entirely uninformed but whose illiterate or innumerate or for-hire opinion may be deeply held. We will suffer droughts, and floods, and crop failures, and the little maps in the garden catalogs that show which plants will grow in your area of the country will shift colors, then shift again, but what is important is that the opinion of the prominently uninformed, or the opinion of those who have hung out their shingle, the one on which they have written will have prominent opinions for food; inquire within, be given equal weight to The Facts of how it is happening and why.

That, right there.



'Inestimable' indeed. He nailed it.

How much of this lies at the feet of Murdoch?
1453. pottery
Quoting REDFISH904:

There are only 13 million hunters in the US and less than 25% of those hunt birds. Still seems a little high.


Agreed.
I found all the numbers high.
Hundreds of millions of dead birds (overall, excluding hunting) each year in the US alone would create quite a noticeable issue.

And the number for birds killed by cats? Wow.
Quoting 1450. GTstormChaserCaleb:

If you look closely you can see a couple areas of spin north of PR.



Umm I only see 1 and that's N of the NEstern coast of PR moving W bound
Wow Anticyclone!

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1429. Chucktown:



Then if "climate change" is such a hot issue with government and the media, why should we believe it...


You will find a lot more doubting of climate change in the government and media than you will find with academics who study climate. Ignore the government & media, fine, but don't ignore the academics.
1459. sar2401
Quoting LAbonbon:


'Inestimable' indeed. He nailed it.

How much of this lies at the feet of Murdoch?

I would lay it at the feet of YouTube and Wordpress. Really, with all the attention given to Murdoch and Fox, they, along with CNN, MSNBC, and the other networks are becoming increasingly irrelevant. Those that believe...and I mean, really believe...that climate change is either just false or a .gov conspiracy, get their fuel from hundreds of blogs and thousands of YouTube videos that tell them "I'm right!". Way back when (say, five years ago), it tooks some brains and money to set up a web site. Now, using web tools like Wordpress, you can be up and running in an hour at very little cost, and using the brain power of your average hamster. OK, a smart average hamster, but you see my point. With a smartphone, you can make and post videos on YouTube at no cost. With some cheap editing software, you can even make them look pretty good. Now we have a complete closed system. You make a blog and link to all the other blogs. Pretty soon, other blogs are linking to your blog. Then you go look at the YouTube videos that show you're exactly right. Pretty soon, your blog has 5,000 readers, so you must be smart and right. I don't think people get it yet. What's said on the networks has almost no influence on the true believers.

P.S. I hope my spelling and grammar are correct. I really tried. At least I didn't have to do timezone calculations. :-)

P.P.S. Dr. Masters will post a new blog in 3...2...1...

EDIT: I knew it...
1460. sar2401
Quoting sar2401:

I would lay it at the feet of YouTube and Wordpress. Really, with all the attention given to Murdoch and Fox, they, along with CNN, MSNBC, and the other networks are becoming increasingly irrelevant. Those that believe...and I mean, really believe...that climate change is either just false or a .gov conspiracy, get their fuel from hundreds of blogs and thousands of YouTube videos that tell them "I'm right!". Way back when (say, five years ago), it tooks some brains and money to set up a web site. Now, using web tools like Wordpress, you can be up and running in an hour at very little cost, and using the brain power of your average hamster. OK, a smart average hamster, but you see my point. With a smartphone, you can make and post videos on YouTube at no cost. With some cheap editing software, you can even make them look pretty good. Now we have a complete closed system. You make a blog and link to all the other blogs. Pretty soon, other blogs are linking to your blog. Then you go look at the YouTube videos that show you're exactly right. Pretty soon, your blog has 5,000 readers, so you must be smart and right. I don't think people get it yet. What's said on the networks has almost no influence on the true believers.

P.S. I hope my spelling and grammar are correct. I really tried. At least I didn't have to do timezone calculations. :-)

P.P.S. Dr. Masters will post a new blog in 3...2...1...


EDIT: I knew it...
Quoting 1385. sar2401:


Sorry, NOAA gets no sympathy from me on this one. NOAA's first job is operational weather forecasting.

No, that's not NOAA's first job. NOAA is a blanket agency that contains many sub-agencies/services.
I think you are thinking of the National Weather Service, which is part of NOAA. But no, NOAA doesn't just do weather, even if some of us wish that they did.
Quoting 1383. Grothar:



This should read as follows.
I know my grammar is awful since I am still having a problem with the proper placement of commas. This is the reason I am not an English major. You would not find me correcting the grammar or spelling of anyone. If (capital I) I am able to comprehend what is written, it is fine.

If I were (not was; Subjunctive mode) writing a paper for school for which I would be graded, I would then revise any paragraph in which there may be errors.

(Caleb, you know I'm joshing with you)


All I can say is, the internet has been hell on us proofreaders. Fidonet was a little better at least. And don't even get me started on SMS shortcuts. My older daughter is almost as much a spellcheck nazi as I, and she does it just to tweak me a little.
Quoting 1373. sar2401:



Your link does not work. This link does. I must say, you have managed to collect one of the biggest laundry lists of things to do in terms of pollution I've ever seen. If you had to pick just three, what would they be?


- Start controlling soot; nobody is in favor of it, eliminating it has an immediate positive impact on health and there are remunerative means to combat it (better cooking stoves, reformulated diesel fuel, etc.). Soot also has a outsize affect on melting in polar regions so tackling it would offer 'more bang for the buck'.

- End bootleg manufacture of chlorofluorocarbon refrigerant compounds. CFCs and many HCFCs are very destructive greenhouse chemicals; the react high in the atmosphere and are very persistent. There are good alternative compounds, there is no reason for any country to provide safe-harbor to manufacturers of these old-fashioned refrigerants. Like a 'war on soot' it would we be fairly simple to implement, results would be easy to measure (less CFCs and HCFCs in atmosphere) and the effort would not be very costly compared to reducing carbon emissions for electrical generating plants, for instance.

- End fuel subsidies. Many countries have discovered that high fuel prices - plus - fuel subsidies = national bankruptcy. There is a strong impetus from IMF and other major lenders to cut back or eliminate fuel subsides; what this means is that part of the institutional framework to end fuel subsidies is already in place. This would be an easy win that benefits everyone -- including drivers who would wind up using a lot less fuel.
it was very interesting to see how 90 E panned out i think the models are still being feed the wrong ingredients atm if the models get a better handle on the enso i think their forecasting will improve.

the recent anomaly map came out today and it shows a very significant warm pool in nino region 3.4 and 4. The only other time in the 21st century this has occurred is in 2004 because the most recent of these three el ninio where nino region 1 &2 had the dominant warming bears no resemblance to the present unfolding situation with the 2014 el ninio.

2014 : Warm pool in ninio 3.4 & 4 and a extremely warm gulf of Alaska


2004 : Warm pool in ninio 3.4 & 4 and a extremely warm gulf of Alaska


2009 : Cold gulf of alaska and no consistant warm pool in ninio 3.4 & 4


2006 : very cold gulf of alaska and also no consistant warming signiture in ninio 3.4 & 4

If this trend continues and a traditional el ninio does not form it will be important for the stake holders to stress on preparedness rather than just the talk of el ninio which will aid in complacency more and more modoki type el ninio is the best bet.

Ninio 1&2 forecasted to dip in july..


NInio 3 forecasted to rise steadily
Quoting 1429. Chucktown:



Then if "climate change" is such a hot issue with government and the media, why should we believe it. The American public forgets things very quickly. We live in the now, no one remembers that we haven't had a major hurricane strike the US since 2005, but we remember the brutal winter that impacted the majority of the country, so the media and government has made a little "extra" push in recent weeks to drill this so called "climate change" into everyones head.

You don't have to believe the government or media. But the IPCC report, particularly the WG1 report is overwhelmingly produced by PhD scientists and I think that is worth paying attention to.

Also, if you think political boundaries mean anything in terms of hurricanes you're doing it wrong.

© Copyright 2017 The Weather Company, LLC