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Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:02 AM GMT on August 06, 2014

The Eastern Pacific is a busy place for tropical storms and hurricanes, with an average of 15 named storms, 8 hurricanes, and 3 intense hurricanes forming each year. However, these plentiful storms rarely affect Hawaii. The predominant storm track is well to the south of the Hawaiian Islands, and the air tends to be dry and ocean temperatures relatively cool near the islands, making it difficult for a storm to make it there intact. But with two tropical storms potentially threatening the islands in the coming week, and Tropical Storm Flossie having passed with 100 miles of the islands in 2013, it is fair to ask, could climate change be increasing the odds of tropical storms and hurricanes affecting the Hawaiian Islands? A 2013 modeling study published in Nature Climate Change, "Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii", found that global warming is expected to increase the incidence of tropical storms and hurricanes in Hawaii. Lead author Hiroyuki Murakami, from the International Pacific Research Center at the University of Hawaii at Manoa, commented in a press release accompanying the paper: "In our study, we looked at all tropical cyclones, which range in intensity from tropical storms to full-blown Category 5 hurricanes. From 1979 to 2003, both observational records and our model document that only every four years on average did a tropical cyclone come near Hawaii. Our projections for the end of this century show a two-to-three-fold increase for this region."


Figure 1. Projected change in number of tropical cyclones per year by the last quarter of this century in the 2013 Murakami et al. modeling study published in Nature Climate Change, "Projected increase in tropical cyclones near Hawaii" (in this study, tropical cyclones were defined as only tropical storms and hurricanes, though the general term "tropical cyclones" usually includes tropical depressions as well.) The frequency of a tropical cyclone in a 5°x5° area over the Hawaiian Islands increased from about 0.7 - 1.2 storms per year to about 2 - 3 storms per year. Note that the research projects that the heavily populated Mexican Pacific coast will see a decrease in tropical storms and hurricanes--about one less storm per year. The green stippling indicates statistical significance at the 99 percent confidence level. Image credit: Press release from the University of Hawaii, Hiroyuki Murakami, and Nature Climate Change (2013).

Why an Increase for Hawaii?
Even though their model predicted that fewer tropical cyclones would form in the Eastern Pacific in a future climate with global temperatures 2°C (3.6°F) warmer than at present, more of these storms made their way to Hawaii. This occurred because of three factors:

1) A shift in the upper air steering currents, caused by movement of the upper-level westerly subtropical jet poleward so that the mean steering flow near Hawaii became more east-to-west.

2) A tendency for storms near Hawaii to be stronger (stronger hurricanes tend to move more to the northwestward in the Northern Hemisphere, due to a phenomenon known as beta drift, caused by the variation in the Coriolis parameter across the width of the storm.)

3) A northwards shift in the genesis location where Eastern Pacific tropical storms formed, due to warming of the ocean waters.

"Our finding that more tropical cyclones will approach Hawaii as Earth continues to warm is fairly robust because we ran our experiments with different model versions and under varying conditions. The yearly number we project, however, still remains very low," reassured study co-author Wang in the press release. Only three tropical storms or hurricanes have made landfall in the islands since 1949, an average of one every 27 years, so an increase by a factor of 2 - 3 would imply a landfall every 9 - 14 years. With such a low incidence of storms, it will be very difficult to determine if they are indeed changing due to a changing climate without several decades of data, though.


Figure 2. Double trouble for Hawaii: True-color VIIRS image of Hurricane Iselle (left) and Tropical Storm Julio (right) approaching Hawaii, taken between 3 - 6 pm EDT August 5, 2014. At the time, Iselle was a Category 2 hurricane with 110 mph winds, and Julio had 65 mph winds. Image credit: NOAA Visualization Lab.

I'll have a new post Wednesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Nice surprise, Doc. And interesting about Hawaii. That area seems to be a little more active than years ago

Bertha, a little flareup again.

Thanks Dr. Masters for that discussion. Very interesting, instead
Every time I make a comment now it's like a new blog is right around the corner.
Thanks Dr. Masters. I posted this on last blog, repost it here. Bertha had an interesting affect on the beach at Ocean City, Maryland today, it pushed the water a lot further in then usual


"This was from 138th Street today, the waves kept coming pushing everyone back to the dunes" -John 'Jamie' Myers


Curtis Burnett
probably off on this because many years will be needed to know for sure, but I feel the SAL will only get stronger in the atlantic lessening the number and intensity of hurricanes in the atlantic. so to counter act the transfer of heat to the poles from the equator the pacific will have to off set the transfer of heat by producing more and stronger hurricanes and more of those to effect the Hawaiian islands. just a though
Thanks Dr. Masters!

Pretty interesting read.
From the previous blog:

Raining heavy now and currently under a yellow weather warning for rain. No thunder or lightning though. There's more wet weather to come during the week, including when Bertha hits us on Sunday. After a rather hot July (8th warmest on record I believe), August seems to have started on a more unsettled and cooler note (Which I welcome!). Bertha will also be the first autumnal storm we see. We don't normally get storms like what Bertha will be until around late August.

Also to note, July was the 8th month in a row with above average temperatures in the UK.
great blog
Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Not sure if this has already been posted, but I think it's interesting that the NWS in Hawaii is already calling for TS force sustained winds from Iselle. They must think it will hold together pretty well if they're already saying that. I'm a bit skeptical, as Iselle seems to be falling apart quite rapidly this evening.

"... Winds...
although changes are still possible... the latest forecast is for
sustained winds of 40 mph or higher for portions of the area from
early Thursday evening to early Friday morning. Depending on the
exact track of Iselle... there is the possibility of moderate wind
damage."



In 2005&2004 everyone said GW all the Hurricane seasons will be like this in the future! Now Hawaii gets a couple of T/S and it's due to climate change?
.
Whoops sorry used my friend's handle.
The key word in the headline "may."
Quoting Doppler22:
Thanks Dr. Masters. I posted this on last blog, repost it here. Bertha had an interesting affect on the beach at Ocean City, Maryland today, it pushed the water a lot further in then usual


"This was from 138th Street today, the waves kept coming pushing everyone back to the dunes" -John 'Jamie' Myers


Curtis Burnett



Comment from last blog

I love how the little ones are not whereing life jackets in the photo. Even at the point where they where standing a big wave can come right up. And pull them out. I would not have went them in the water with out a life jacket on for there own safety


I new a blog like this was coming now that we got a hurricane heading for Hi
From the previous blog:

Quoting 251. juracanpr1:


OK, but the dropsondes data and additional intensity data provided by the HH plane concluded that it was a modest storm even when close to PR. The sland was affected by the NE quadrant (the worst weather quadrant in terms of drain as well as wind). However, we did not observed that wind, except some at the more severe thunderstorms). I mean something was wrong with that data in terms of intensity. If I extrapolate the data to the latitude the storm had yesterday my conclusion is that yesterday Bertha was no more than a modest storm (60-70 MPH) system. Just my opinion.


Yep, when Bertha passed through our area it was a mess, barely a tropical cyclone. Afterwards it pulled itself together and intensified rather quickly, thanks in part to its size (small storms are prone to large fluctuations in intensity), that's my take.

But the NHC could revise the intensity of the storm post-season if they believe its necessary.
Quoting gulfbreeze:
In 2005&2004 everyone said GW all the Hurricane seasons will be like this in the future! Now Hawaii gets a couple of T/S and it's due to climate change?


Hawaii isn't in the Atlantic, last I checked..
Also, from last blog, I almost got struck by lightning today haha

What you see in the video are stepped leaders, essentially part of the lightning strike.

From NOAA: "A typical CG lightning strike initiates inside the storm. Under the influences of the electric field between the cloud and the ground, a very faint, negatively charged channel called a "stepped leader" emerges from the storm base and propagates toward the ground in a series of steps about 50 meters (160 feet) in length and 1 microsecond (0.000001 seconds) in duration.

In what can be loosely described as an "avalanche of electrons", the stepped leader usually branches out in many directions as it approaches the ground, carrying an EXTREMELY strong electric potential: about 100 MILLION volts with respect to the ground and about 5 coulombs of negative charge.

Between each step there is a pause of about 50 microseconds, during which the stepped leader "looks" around for an object to strike. If none is "seen", it takes another step, and repeats the process until it "finds" a target.

It takes the stepped leader about 50 milliseconds (1/20th of a second) to reach its full length, though this number varies depending on the length of its path. Studies of individual strikes have shown that a single leader can be comprised of more than 10,000 steps!"


This model run from COAMPS for Iselle does not look good for me in Honolulu.

Followed by Julio



If these runs hold true Hawaii may get 50 years of TS hits in 2 days. But I have to remember the invisible shield that blocks this from happening :-).
Good nights to all the bloggers.
Thanks JLPR2.
I will be back tomorrow evening or tomorrow night.
Quoting 18. CybrTeddy:


Hawaii isn't in the Atlantic, last I checked..
Didn't say it was not the point!
Quoting 12. gulfbreeze:

In 2005&2004 everyone said GW all the Hurricane seasons will be like this in the future! Now Hawaii gets a couple of T/S and it's due to climate change?


You took the words right out of my mouth.
No serious storms since '92 - now the world is ending in Hawaii.
Guess I should sell my house and move back to Florida.....
When is the next prediction for hurricane season? I call it of "part 2". Last year was in August 8th from NOAA and August 2nd from CSU
Thanks for the late night (for me) blog Dr. Masters!
We're seeing right now that storms heading to Hawaii from the eastern Pacific are encountering cooler water, reducing the energy available for them. But with warming of the oceans, and warming further North, we should expect the storms that follow a track similar to Iselle and Julio to remain at greater strength approaching Hawaii since they will have warmer water available.
Some rains here today, but it was HOT.

93F at 2:00pm. broke the record which was set in 2013 by a full degree, for this day.

Atlantic still dormant right now, with no sign of a change anytime soon.
Quoting 20. racer925:

This model run from COAMPS for Iselle does not look good for me in Honolulu.


Followed by Julio



If these runs hold true Hawaii may get 50 years of TS hits in 2 days. But I have to remember the invisible shield that blocks this from happening :-).


I own 2 houses on Maui (Kula).
This should be interesting.
Quoting 14. luvtogolf:

The key word in the headline "may."

Every one of the Dr.s blogs related include "mays" and "ifs".
We'll know in 100 years.
In the meantime, just in case, the insurers WILL take advantage of any study that gives them a reason to raise the risk premiums. The US coastline at least has storm surge increase, which is valid due to rising seas. Now, Hawaii, with limited storm surge, should say aloha to higher insurance rates.
Quoting 26. CaneFreeCR:

We're seeing right now that storms heading to Hawaii from the eastern Pacific are encountering cooler water, reducing the energy available for them. But with warming of the oceans, and warming further North, we should expect the storms that follow a track similar to Iselle and Julio to remain at greater strength approaching Hawaii since they will have warmer water available.


so every el nino we should see hawaii be ravaged by storm due to climate change....
Quoting 26. CaneFreeCR:

We're seeing right now that storms heading to Hawaii from the eastern Pacific are encountering cooler water, reducing the energy available for them. But with warming of the oceans, and warming further North, we should expect the storms that follow a track similar to Iselle and Julio to remain at greater strength approaching Hawaii since they will have warmer water available.

It is a shame that you have to lay this out for people who are over-complicating the whole blog entry. It really is not that complicated
Quoting 29. CosmicEvents:


Every one of the Dr.s blogs related include "mays" and "ifs".
We'll know in 100 years.
In the meantime, just in case, the insurers WILL take advantage of any study that gives them a reason to raise the risk premiums. The US coastline at least has storm surge increase, which is valid due to rising seas. Now, Hawaii, with limited storm surge, should say aloha to higher insurance rates.


CE - Hawaii's property rates are some of the lowest in the Nation.
We have a few markets from Korea that have cut the heart out of rates. Others have had to follow them down just to hold on to their books.

Hawaii has always had higher flood/storm surge rates due to the constant exposure to tsunami - So that won't change much.
Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Eye of Iselle no longer visible on satellite at this time.

34. SLU
Quoting 12. gulfbreeze:

In 2005&2004 everyone said GW all the Hurricane seasons will be like this in the future! Now Hawaii gets a couple of T/S and it's due to climate change?


I wonder if they'll blame climate change and AGW on the drought of major hurricane landfalls in the US since 2005 too.

watching
Quoting 30. NoNamePub:



so every el nino we should see hawaii be ravaged by storm due to climate change....


Just FYI, It's not an El Nino.



Heading back into La Nina territory as of AUG 5th actually.

Quoting 11. silas:

Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Not sure if this has already been posted, but I think it's interesting that the NWS in Hawaii is already calling for TS force sustained winds from Iselle. They must think it will hold together pretty well if they're already saying that. I'm a bit skeptical, as Iselle seems to be falling apart quite rapidly this evening.

"... Winds...
although changes are still possible... the latest forecast is for
sustained winds of 40 mph or higher for portions of the area from
early Thursday evening to early Friday morning. Depending on the
exact track of Iselle... there is the possibility of moderate wind
damage."





Even if it falls apart, there's a bunch of angular momentum to spin down. 40 mph winds sound reasonable. And the rains ought to be humongous.
Quoting 37. ProgressivePulse:

Heading back into La Nina territory as of AUG 5th actually.




Well thats good news!
Quoting 37. ProgressivePulse:

Heading back into La Nina territory as of AUG 5th actually.



And yet, the sea temps off the California coast are much warmer than they were last year at this time, and the temps north and west of Hawaii are also warmer. Not El Nino, but clearly different than normal.
Quoting BayFog:

And yet, the sea temps off the California coast are much warmer than they were last year at this time, and the temps north and west of Hawaii are also warmer. Not El Nino, but clearly different than normal.

True, that.
,
Thanks for the new post Dr. Masters,
Thanks Doc. If anything, Hawaii may set a record for shortest timespan between landfalls. I have been around a while, and do not recall Hawaii ever being hit twice in a week....or so...:)
thank for all the hawaii love, doc.
Quoting 42. pottery:


True, that.
Greetings Pott........Everywhere I go, there are always folks that discuss the weather. Needless to say, almost all of them say the climate has changed dramatically in there homeland the past 30 years. People have doubts the AGW is occurring, which Is debatable, but it is the people who say that there is nothing major going on with the worlds climate that really need to study more. It is annoying when physical evidence and incontrovertible proof exists, and is explained clear enough for even non science minded people to understand, but say that its all an agenda and nothing is happening...I would say more, but would likely get chucked for a day...
Quoting NoNamePub:


CE - Hawaii's property rates are some of the lowest in the Nation.
We have a few markets from Korea that have cut the heart out of rates. Others have had to follow them down just to hold on to their books.

Hawaii has always had higher flood/storm surge rates due to the constant exposure to tsunami - So that won't change much.


what about Lava insurance?
The island of Hawaii is divided into zones according to the degree of hazard from lava flows. Zone 1 is the area of the greatest hazard, Zone 9 of the least. To read more about a particular volcano or zone, click on the area of interest in the map or on the text links below.
Quoting 41. BayFog:


And yet, the sea temps off the California coast are much warmer than they were last year at this time, and the temps north and west of Hawaii are also warmer. Not El Nino, but clearly different than normal.


Not normal for sure but being August already and cooling SST's, ENSO will have minimal impacts this cane season which is what we may be seeing, things not quite normal. Warm ENSO.
Quoting 3. Grothar:

Bertha, a little flareup again.



Man...with a flare up like that...will the NHC slightly bump up the intensity at the 11 PM advisory? Keep hitting the refresh button on the NHC site to see...
Still waiting on Portugal to get hit..
Quoting 49. Autistic2:



what about Lava insurance?
The island of Hawaii is divided into zones according to the degree of hazard from lava flows. Zone 1 is the area of the greatest hazard, Zone 9 of the least. To read more about a particular volcano or zone, click on the area of interest in the map or on the text links below.



The only zones - anyone really pays attention to are 1 2 and maybe three....
And only on Big island.
Quoting hydrus:
Greetings Pott........Everywhere I go, there are always folks that discuss the weather. Needless to say, almost all of them say the climate has changed dramatically in there homeland the past 30 years. People have doubts the AGW is occurring, which Is debatable, but it is the people who say that there is nothing major going on with the worlds climate that really need to study more. It is annoying when physical evidence and incontrovertible proof exists, and is explained clear enough for even non science minded people to understand, but say that its all an agenda and nothing is happening...I would say more, but would likely get chucked for a day...


Yeah, well if most people say that their 'local weather' has shown changes in say 30 years, I don't see how anyone can deny that there is a ''change''. Call it whatever.

Climate is changing.
Why ? That's the only 'debatable' part.
But I think there is enough good science to give us some pretty good ideas.

Good to see you, by the way !

This Train is for REAL...
East coast basin is the only one running above average instability. May be similar to 05 where most of the good ones form after 60W





Quoting 11. silas:

Thanks, Dr. Masters.

Not sure if this has already been posted, but I think it's interesting that the NWS in Hawaii is already calling for TS force sustained winds from Iselle. They must think it will hold together pretty well if they're already saying that. I'm a bit skeptical, as Iselle seems to be falling apart quite rapidly this evening.

"... Winds...
although changes are still possible... the latest forecast is for
sustained winds of 40 mph or higher for portions of the area from
early Thursday evening to early Friday morning. Depending on the
exact track of Iselle... there is the possibility of moderate wind
damage."




i think regardless of Iselles strength, her low pressure and our trade wind generating high pressure to the northeast will cause the pressure gradient to be steep enough to support tropical storm force winds.

schools on the big island and maui county will be closed thursday.
Quoting 40. ohzone:

2 storms aimed at Hawaii? Did someone there pi$$ off someone in Washington?
A lot of the people there were born that way.
Quoting 51. NCHurricane2009:


Man...with a flare up like that...will the NHC slightly bump up the intensity at the 11 PM advisory? Keep hitting the refresh button on the NHC site to see...


Major Hurricane Bertha.
Quoting 57. abcdeer:

i think regardless of Iselles strength, her low pressure and our trade wind generating high pressure to the northeast will cause the pressure gradient to be steep enough to support tropical storm force winds.

schools on the big island and maui county will be closed thursday.
If I lived there I would watch this storm closely..T.C,s can change quickly in regards to strength and direction.
Just wanted to drop by from Fargo. It looks like low of 60 high of 80 for the next week.

Brutal, just brutal. ;)

Link
Quoting 59. ProgressivePulse:



Major Hurricane Bertha.
Yep..Good thing I,m prepared..in case winds extend outward 2100 miles from the center.
Quoting 61. Qazulight:

Just wanted to drop by from Fargo. It looks like low of 60 high of 80 for the next week.

Brutal, just brutal. ;)

Link
Good evening Q.L. Remember to were several layers of clothing with such low temps...:)
Quoting 63. hydrus:

Good evening Q.L. Remember to were several layers of clothing with such low temps...:)


Like a t-shirt and shorts, nice weather....
wow...look how dry the Caribbean basin is. Sad, actually as these islands are relatively tiny and fragile.
Quoting 62. hydrus:

Yep..Good thing I,m prepared..in case winds extend outward 2100 miles from the center.


I've known you long enough and I know you know storms.

I have doubts with 03, no way....

Was it the gradient pushing the winds between the high?
Quoting 63. hydrus:

Good evening Q.L. Remember to were several layers of clothing with such low temps...:)
Hydrus the squirrels are really acting now and gathering nuts quick, and even more trees are changing color.
Quoting NCHurricane2009:

Man...with a flare up like that...will the NHC slightly bump up the intensity at the 11 PM advisory? Keep hitting the refresh button on the NHC site to see...
I'm not sure if you're kidding, but an increase in convection does not automatically mean an increase in storm intensity. We saw this when Bertha was nearly devoid of convection and it was held at 45 knots and now we see that the NHC has kept Bertha at 45 knots for the 11:00 update. The NHC likes persistence in the face of no major reason to change things. It also likes to look ahead of the current update. Bertha is no where near any land area and, with shear at 40 knots now and only going higher, what do you think the chances are that Bertha can intensify any further? Since the only concern is shipping traffic, 45 knots or 50 knots is still a gale to mariners, and they wouldn't react any differently to a 5 knot increase in wind speed. If another update period arrives and Bertha, against all odds, somehow manages to intensify, they will change it then.
El Nino seems to be taking its sweet time coming up. It does look like the temperature anomalies are taking on a Modoki appearance.
Link
Quoting 54. pottery:



Yeah, well if most people say that their 'local weather' has shown changes in say 30 years, I don't see how anyone can deny that there is a ''change''. Call it whatever.

Climate is changing.
Why ? That's the only 'debatable' part.
But I think there is enough good science to give us some pretty good ideas.

Good to see you, by the way !


Yea, one just needs to be observant, and embrace reality:
http://co2now.org
Can someone provide a vorticity map to see if the wave at 7N 30W has any spin to it? TIA.

Mother Earth
We saw Her last year cranking wave after wave from Sahel that died in the Atlantic.
No telling what will happen this year but it isn't looking too good for the Caribbean Basin at this point. However, where there's life there's hope. Maybe one of these bright spots popping off the African coast will produce something for our friends in the Caribbean who count on good ole H2O pouring from the sky for their sustenance. But no guarantees. I am thinking our planet is sick and needs more than what we are doing for it at this time.
Quoting 60. hydrus:

If I lived there I would watch this storm closely..T.C,s can change quickly in regards to strength and direction.
i agree, i havent really gotten anything done at work the past few days as all my attention is on this. but as for everybody else, i think for the most part everybody is watching closely. curiosity is in the air as she and her julio near. the media has been doing a wonderful job covering Iselle very closey and slowly woking julio in. the NWS/CPHC had a live press confernece at 2pm local time. seems like we are ready.. hopefully this holds true for everyone.
Quoting 71. FOREX:

Can someone provide a vorticity map to see if the wave at 7N 30W has any spin to it? TIA.


You should bookmark this for the future, I'm sure there are better links out there tho: 850MB Atlantic Vorticity

Today marks the halfway point between summer. (August 5)
Meteorological Fall begins in 26 days.
Official First Day of Fall is in 48 days.
Hurricane Bertha at peak intensity.

Just did my 55th blog update of the season on the Atlantic tropics...highlights Bertha and the disturbance trailing behind her.
Quoting 74. tornadodude:



You should bookmark this for the future, I'm sure there are better links out there tho: 850MB Atlantic Vorticity


Thank you so much. Bookmarked.
Quoting Qazulight:
Just wanted to drop by from Fargo. It looks like low of 60 high of 80 for the next week.

Brutal, just brutal. ;)

Link
Yeah, but September is just around the corner. :-)
Quoting 78. FOREX:

Thank you so much. Bookmarked.


No problem! Like I said, I'm sure there better charts out there, but this gets it done
Quoting 64. PedleyCA:



Like a t-shirt and shorts, nice weather....
Yep. The people up the wear that when its the 30,s...and their warm..:)
Quoting 76. ProgressivePulse:

Hurricane Bertha at peak intensity.



wow...how sick.
Uggh....I don't know which would make me feel queasy...6 talls & 4 shots or looking at one of the uggliest looking hurricanes I've ever seen...
Quoting 76. ProgressivePulse:

Hurricane Bertha at peak intensity.




Quoting hydrus:
If I lived there I would watch this storm closely..T.C,s can change quickly in regards to strength and direction.
Normally I would agree, but with Iselle, intensification from this point onward is virtually impossible. There is an incredible amount of dry air ahead and the SSTs are going to continue to decrease.

They still should keep a close eye on this one, though. Perhaps she'll still be able to pack gusts to 60+mph by then, which I don't think many of them are used to.

86. 1344
Quoting 84. silas:


Normally I would agree, but with Iselle, intensification from this point onward is virtually impossible. There is an incredible amount of dry air ahead and the SSTs are going to continue to decrease.

They still should keep a close eye on this one, though. Perhaps she'll still be able to pack gusts to 60+mph by then, which I don't think many of them are used to.




SST's don't decrease much if at all.

Shear is expected to decrease.

Recon so far support 85-90 knt winds.
Uggh....I don't know which would make me feel queasy...6 talls & 4 shots or looking at one of the uggliest looking hurricanes I've ever seen...

roflmbo....sheesh wake up Civilization! Your planet is screwed.
Nature will do what it want's to do for hurricane season.
Quoting 66. ProgressivePulse:



I've known you long enough and I know you know storms.

I have doubts with 03, no way....

Was it the gradient pushing the winds between the high?
I doubt it. This system had a very tight and vigorous vortex practically its entire existence. My guess is some intense convection wrapped in quickly, and just as fast was removed because of shear or something else.
Quoting 84. silas:


Normally I would agree, but with Iselle, intensification from this point onward is virtually impossible. There is an incredible amount of dry air ahead and the SSTs are going to continue to decrease.

They still should keep a close eye on this one, though. Perhaps she'll still be able to pack gusts to 60+mph by then, which I don't think many of them are used to.




Just opened up, she's cooked.
Quoting 88. Climate175:

Nature will do what it want's to do for hurricane season.

what hurricane season? It's a desert out there.

Link MDR

Quoting 1344:


SST's don't decrease much if at all.

Shear is expected to decrease.

Recon so far support 85-90 knt winds.
Excuse me for my ignorance but where is this data?
Quoting abcdeer:
i agree, i havent really gotten anything done at work the past few days as all my attention is on this. but as for everybody else, i think for the most part everybody is watching closely. curiosity is in the air as she and her julio near. the media has been doing a wonderful job covering Iselle very closey and slowly woking julio in. the NWS/CPHC had a live press confernece at 2pm local time. seems like we are ready.. hopefully this holds true for everyone.
I imagine the biggest problem is just complacency. The last major storm was 22 years ago with Iniki in 1992. For those that were around then and have long memories, the performance of the models and the CPHC does not inspire confidence with the upcoming storms. OTOH, some of the complacency is reasonable, since no major tropical cyclone since 1950 has hit Hawaii from the east. The tracks of Julio and Issele are consistent with west tracking storms that have all fizzled in the past. We'll see if any of the supposed climate change factors affect either or both of these storms.
Quoting 91. Chicklit:


what hurricane season?

I don't know... We will be tracking and jamming this winter that's why! :)
The southwestern side of Hurricane Iselle is comparatively weaker to the northern side, as one would expect given the eyewall erosion. Surface winds in this portion of the storm are around 80 mph.
systems will be weak IF they reach Hawaii

A peaceful and safe night to all....zzz
Quoting 98. hydrus:

A peaceful and safe night to all....zzz

yeah, me too.
no sense in looking for something that's not there.
Maybe Bertha is climate change Hurricane Bertha? And the ones that actually look like hurricanes will be cat 2 or majors.
Looks like Halong is strengthening again.

Better be off now, night all!
Quoting silas:

Excuse me for my ignorance but where is this data?
Recon data did support 85 knot winds for Iselle, so the storm is pegged at that level. Shear is expected to relax modestly over the next 18 hours as the UL trough in front of Iselle that has caused the increased shear also weakens. The SST's will drop over the next 24 hours so I don't know where that bit came from. The most important things is that no major model is forecasting Iselle to intensify before it traverses the Hawaiian Islands. As with the vast majority of tropical cyclones directly impacting Hawaii, wind really isn't going to be a big factor, but rain certainly will be.
Quoting 12. gulfbreeze:

In 2005&2004 everyone said GW all the Hurricane seasons will be like this in the future! Now Hawaii gets a couple of T/S and it's due to climate change?


Note that this blog post doesn't answer your question "Now Hawaii gets a couple of T/S and it's due to climate change?". The blog post asks a somewhat similar question: "it is fair to ask, could climate change be increasing the odds of tropical storms and hurricanes affecting the Hawaiian Islands?". The projections mentioned in this blog post are for decades from now.
104. silas

Quoting ZacWeatherKidUK:
Looks like Halong is strengthening again.

Better be off now, night all!
It'll be interesting to see how strong it can get once it finishes mixing out the last of the dry air in its core. Probably Cat 3 at least based on how it's looking now.
Quoting 23. NoNamePub:



You took the words right out of my mouth.
No serious storms since '92 - now the world is ending in Hawaii.
Guess I should sell my house and move back to Florida.....
The logic behind it is sound.... similar to what we've been seeing here with more storms forming N of 20N.... which may become the trend rather than seasonal variation linked to the active period.
Quoting 30. NoNamePub:



so every el nino we should see hawaii be ravaged by storm due to climate change....
Just out of curiosity, did u even read what Doc wrote?
src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/images/s ubregions_atlantic.gif">






likely never to happen again
Quoting Chicklit:

yeah, me too.
no sense in looking for something that's not there.
Why not? You're in good company if you do. :-)

GN Chicklit.
108. silas

Quoting sar2401:
Recon data did support 85 knot winds for Iselle, so the storm is pegged at that level. Shear is expected to relax modestly over the next 18 hours as the UL trough in front of Iselle that has caused the increased shear also weakens. The SST's will drop over the next 24 hours so I don't know where that bit came from. The most important things is that no major model is forecasting Iselle to intensify before it traverses the Hawaiian Islands. As with the vast majority of tropical cyclones directly impacting Hawaii, wind really isn't going to be a big factor, but rain certainly will be.
That's what I was thinking. I was gonna say if the SST's weren't dropping maybe I'm going completely color blind =)
Can you Imagine him being a weather reporter?

110. 1344
Quoting 92. silas:


Excuse me for my ignorance but where is this data?



Probs best to follow recon here

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59& t=116554&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
One never knows but from what I know I wouldn't expect any intensification on these dual possible Hawaii-bound cyclones. Still, even 1, much less 1 quickly followed by 2, tropical depressions or tropical storms can do quite a bit of damage or at the least disruption. Even one 2-lane road becoming impassible can cause island wide trouble.
.
Hopefully both will breeze by with minimal impact. In the meantime, better safe than sorry and the list of cyclone supplies today from the Honolulu newpaper I found helpful, and interesting.
.
The state Department of Emergency Management advises residents to prepare a seven-day disaster supply kit as Hurricane Iselle and Tropical Storm Julio approach the Central Pacific and threaten Hawaii.

Officials say the disaster kit should include enough of the following items to last for seven days:

» Water: One gallon of water per person per day for seven days for drinking and sanitation;

» Food: Non-perishable food that does not require cooking. Popular local foods such as Spam, corned beef and Vienna sausage;

» Eating Utensils: Plates, mess kits, forks and chop sticks. Don't forget a non-electric can opener for canned foods.

» Radio: Battery-powered or hand crank radio with NOAA Weather alert;

» Light: Flashlight and/or a portable fluorescent or LED light;

» Spare batteries;

» First Aid: Get a first-aid kit and consider enrolling in a certified first aid, CPR and AED course;

» Whistle: Important for signaling for help. A whistle carries much farther than the human voice and uses less energy than yelling;

» Dust Mask: Helps to filter contaminated air;

» Sanitation: Moist towelettes, toilet paper, 5-gallon bucket, garbage bags and plastic ties for personal sanitation;

» Tools: Wrench or pliers to turn off utilities, duct tape;

» Maps: Local area maps.

» Prescription: Special medications and glasses.

» Infant formula and diapers;

» Pet food and extra water for your pet.

In addition, state emergency management officials advise residents to monitor local media reports. Emergency public information will be broadcast over TV and radio, and additional emergency information is available on NOAA weather radios which are available from many Oahu electronics and department stores.

Residents can also sign up to receive emergency email and text messages sent directly to your cell phone from Nixle. Go to www.nixle.com/dem to set up an account.

DEM will also issue information updates via Twitter and Facebook. But DEM's Twitter and Facbook pages should not be used to request emergency assistance.



112. 1344
Quoting 102. sar2401:

Recon data did support 85 knot winds for Iselle, so the storm is pegged at that level. Shear is expected to relax modestly over the next 18 hours as the UL trough in front of Iselle that has caused the increased shear also weakens. The SST's will drop over the next 24 hours so I don't know where that bit came from. The most important things is that no major model is forecasting Iselle to intensify before it traverses the Hawaiian Islands. As with the vast majority of tropical cyclones directly impacting Hawaii, wind really isn't going to be a big factor, but rain certainly will be.


SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.9

Not much of a SST drop.

Quoting 106. chrisdscane:

src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/images/s ubregions_atlantic.gif">






likely never to happen again


If you're talking about numbers, I'm almost certain we'll see another season like 2005. It might not be immediate, but we should.

1887 featured 19 named storms, and this was well before significant advancements in technology:



1933 featured 20 named storms, and it was also well before the significant advancements in technology:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 04:07Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09C in 2014
Storm Name: Iselle (flight in the North Central Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 3:18:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°38'N 141°46'W (16.6333N 141.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 1,098 miles (1,768 km) to the ESE (107°) from Honolulu, on the island of Oahu, HI, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,868m (9,409ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 100° at 106kts (From the E at ~ 122.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NNE (17°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974mb (28.76 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,034m (9,954ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 106kts (~ 122.0mph) in the quadrant at 0:17
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NNE (31°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 106 KT 017 / 25 NM 03:10:30Z
CENTER DROPSONDE SFC WND 050/07
116. silas

Quoting 1344:


Probs best to follow recon here

http://www.storm2k.org/phpbb2/viewtopic.php?f=59& amp; t=116554&st=0&sk=t&sd=a
Thank you!
Night all.
Quoting DCSwithunderscores:


Note that the article doesn't answer your question "Now Hawaii gets a couple of T/S and it's due to climate change?". The article asks a somewhat similar question: "it is fair to ask, could climate change be increasing the odds of tropical storms and hurricanes affecting the Hawaiian Islands?". The projections mentioned in the article are for decades from now.
I wonder why Dr. Masters picked 9:02 pm EDT to discuss a study published over a year ago? I had the chance to read this study a couple of months ago and the way it was set up is pretty weird. If you look at the Supplementary Information addenda, pay particular attention to Supplementary Figure 1. The first thing is that the simulated ensemble mean didn't match up well at all with actual observations. The simulated ensemble mean also ends at 2003 even though the observations extend to 2010. This means we don't see how well the experimental data matched up with observations for the years between 2004 and 2010. This experimental model data is used as the basis for extrapolating the period of 2075 and 2099...and that's it. There is no model data between 2003 and 2075. There is no way to get any verification that the model is right until the change has already happened, or at least is very close to happening.

I'm sure I'll be told by people way smarter than me what a moron I am for not understanding this study. I don't even understand why this study was funded and published, so I guess I have no chance of understanding the study at all.
Quoting 1344:


SST (C) 26.1 26.1 26.0 25.8 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.7 27.1 27.4 27.4 27.5 27.9

Not much of a SST drop.

Do you have a link. That series of numbers is worthless without some context.
Quoting 117. sar2401:

I wonder why Dr. Masters picked 9:02 pm EDT to discuss a study published over a year ago? I had the chance to read this study a couple of months ago and the way it was set up is pretty weird. If you look at the Supplementary Information addenda, pay particular attention to Supplementary Figure 1. The first thing is that the simulated ensemble mean didn't match up well at all with actual observations. The simulated ensemble mean also ends at 2003 even though the observations extend to 2010. This means we don't see how well the experimental data matched up with observations for the years between 2004 and 2010. This experimental model data is used as the basis for extrapolating the period of 2075 and 2099...and that's it. There is no model data between 2003 and 2075. There is no way to get any verification that the model is right until the change has already happened, or at least is very close to happening.

I'm sure I'll be told by people way smarter than me what a moron I am for not understanding this study. I don't even understand why this study was funded and published, so I guess I have no chance of understanding the study at all.


He chose it because its in the news right now. As with every single weather event that happens. If something unusual happens you better believe there is gonna be an article named "Will global warming cause X to happen more?" The answer is always "maybe". Can't be wrong then.
Quoting 117. sar2401:

I wonder why Dr. Masters picked 9:02 pm EDT to discuss a study published over a year ago?


Because Hawaii is under threat? It's an easy transition and a good time to talk about the study.
Quarter inch of rain in the last day and a half. This was pretty wonderful! Official Fallon NAS total appears to be .24, but in our little 3 acre circle of wonder based on puddles and buckets I'm inclined to think it's somewhere around a third of an inch. It started a half hour after I finished putting the Ondura panels on the shop porch roof. How's that for timing? :)
122. Siker
Quoting sar2401:
Do you have a link. That series of numbers is worthless without some context.


That's the SHIPS SST data for Iselle, I don't have the link for it but I saw it posted early and I'm sure wherever one usually finds the SHIPS data will have it.
Quoting 106. chrisdscane:

src="http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/images/s ubregions_atlantic.gif">






likely never to happen again


Um, that's a good thing!
Quoting 117. sar2401:

I wonder why Dr. Masters picked 9:02 pm EDT to discuss a study published over a year ago? I had the chance to read this study a couple of months ago and the way it was set up is pretty weird. If you look at the Supplementary Information addenda, pay particular attention to Supplementary Figure 1. The first thing is that the simulated ensemble mean didn't match up well at all with actual observations. The simulated ensemble mean also ends at 2003 even though the observations extend to 2010. This means we don't see how well the experimental data matched up with observations for the years between 2004 and 2010. This experimental model data is used as the basis for extrapolating the period of 2075 and 2099...and that's it. There is no model data between 2003 and 2075. There is no way to get any verification that the model is right until the change has already happened, or at least is very close to happening.

I'm sure I'll be told by people way smarter than me what a moron I am for not understanding this study. I don't even understand why this study was funded and published, so I guess I have no chance of understanding the study at all.


By "the article" I meant "this blog post". I've changed the wording in my previous comment. My comment was restricted in topic to this blog post and the comment that I was replying to. I don't plan to read the study.
It will interesting here in Honolulu if this forecast for Iselle would come true.



Full power to the Hurricane Shield

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)


Where are you getting the decoded VDM? 
127. 1344
Quoting 122. Siker:



That's the SHIPS SST data for Iselle, I don't have the link for it but I saw it posted early and I'm sure wherever one usually finds the SHIPS data will have it.

ftp://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/14080600EP0914_ ships.txt

Here ya go.
128. JRRP
my god this is so boring
see you one day
Quoting 115. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 6th day of the month at 04:07Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 303)
Storm Number & Year: 09C in 2014
Storm Name: Iselle (flight in the North Central Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 11
A. Time of Center Fix: 6th day of the month at 3:18:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°38'N 141°46'W (16.6333N 141.7667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 1,098 miles (1,768 km) to the ESE (107°) from Honolulu, on the island of Oahu, HI, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,868m (9,409ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 87kts (~ 100.1mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the NNE (21°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 100° at 106kts (From the E at ~ 122.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles) to the NNE (17°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 974mb (28.76 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 9°C (48°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,043m (9,984ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 14°C (57°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,034m (9,954ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Open in the northwest
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 25 nautical miles (29 statute miles)
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 3 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 106kts (~ 122.0mph) in the quadrant at 0:17
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 17°C (63°F) which was observed 7 nautical miles to the NNE (31°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
MAX FL WIND 106 KT 017 / 25 NM 03:10:30Z
CENTER DROPSONDE SFC WND 050/07

Pretty decent winds for the current raggedy appearance.
Quoting 126. Stormchaser2007:



Where are you getting the decoded VDM? 

It pops up automatically if you track recon using Google Earth.
Weakening could be rapid, just sucking in that dry air

Quoting 131. VAbeachhurricanes:

Weakening could be rapid, just sucking in that dry air



No weakening yet though. Recon found 85kt on the north and west sides. Assuming higher winds are located within the deeper convection east of the center, this still could be bordering on major hurricane intensity.
Quoting 117. sar2401:

I wonder why Dr. Masters picked 9:02 pm EDT to discuss a study published over a year ago?


Because it's somewhat relevant to the topic, and like most people he has a day job.

I had the chance to read this study a couple of months ago and the way it was set up is pretty weird.


Not really. They're pretty clear just in the abstract of what they're trying to accomplish and what they're focused on.

If you look at the Supplementary Information addenda, pay particular attention to Supplementary Figure 1. The first thing is that the simulated ensemble mean didn't match up well at all with actual observations.


They matched fine. From the description:

The red shading represents the ensemble spread defined by minimum and maximum values of the ensemble experiments.

The shaded region encompasses the observations. It's a probability distribution.

The simulated ensemble mean also ends at 2003 even though the observations extend to 2010. This means we don't see how well the experimental data matched up with observations for the years between 2004 and 2010.


Yes, and they explain why they don't include 2004-2010 in the model simulation in the description of their methodology they used on page 3 and 4 of the supplement.

This experimental model data is used as the basis for extrapolating the period of 2075 and 2099...and that's it.


They're not extrapolating anything. They're modeling, as described in the opening sections of the supplement (as well as more detail in the actual paper I would assume, however I don't have access to it). First they apply their model to the known period of 1979-2003 and determined the performance of the model. Then they initialized the model to the projected conditions towards the end of the century based on various data sets and conditions (IPPC projections, etc. which again, is described in the supplement). In both cases, they're running a GCM to determine the results.

There is no model data between 2003 and 2075.


There's no reason for them to. They're initializing their model to the conditions at the start of their periods of interest and then running the model forward. They used 1979-2003 as their baseline to see how their model performed, and when it did well initialized it with the projected conditions for 2075 and ran it forward.

There is no way to get any verification that the model is right until the change has already happened, or at least is very close to happening.


And how is that different from any other model? The only difference here is time scale. Like all models, it's only as good a physics and data you put into it. All models are wrong, but some are useful.

I'm sure I'll be told by people way smarter than me what a moron I am for not understanding this study.


You're not a moron just because you misinterpreted a rather dense supplement to a much larger scientific paper. These things aren't really written for the average Jane or Joe.

I don't even understand why this study was funded and published, so I guess I have no chance of understanding the study at all.


Because studies like this are important for understanding possible consequences of a changing climate and how we will deal with it.
The 2005 season was but nine years ago. To say this will never happen again defies reasoning. This was less than a decade ago. Who knows where hurricane seasons go from this point forward. Only the next thirty years will give a true window into likelihood of this happening again.
I did another blog update. I didn't get to do one yesterday.

Iselle sure is an interesting storm. It's not often I get to carve a forecast track showing a hit to the Big Island!
Here's the skinny, world wide temperatures will rise, North America will have more extreme winters. West will continue to go into drought causing for far lower snow levels, minimizing tornado seasons. North African deserts will continue to expand and SAL will be a yearly issue. Now entering an average to below average hurricane lapse that will last a decade plus for the Atlantic. Historic water supplies will continue to disappear at an alarming rate. GW is increasing but is hid in North American historic cold winters and most heat being pushed deep into the oceans. Looking at some feedback from this in unknown ways that will be huge in impact in the decades to come. One of the warmest years worldwide ever seen, yet trying to convince the populace of that is fantasy. We are our own worst enemy.
Quoting 136. DeepSeaRising:

Here's the skinny, world wide temperatures will rise, North America will have more extreme winters. West will continue to go into drought causing for far lower snow levels, minimizing tornado seasons. North African deserts will continue to expand and SAL will be a yearly issue. Now entering an average to below average hurricane lapse that will last a decade plus for the Atlantic. Historic water supplies will continue to disappear at an alarming rate. GW is increasing but is hid in North American historic cold winters and most heat being pushed deep into the oceans. Looking at some feedback from this in unknown ways that will be huge in impact in the decades to come. One of the warmest years worldwide ever seen, yet trying to convince the populace of that is fantasy. We are our own worst enemy.


I don't see how we can be even remotely certain of any of those things.

Global warming is real. The consequences are still largely unknown, though. Especially when that comes to variance in mid-latitude weather.
AGW can be seen in the Indus river situation in Pakistan/India, and historic water sources drying up worldwide. China's situation with smog and water issues causing their peaceful rise coming to an end. Need for basic water reserves are already painfully evident. AGW is one of those issues that will be ignored other than at a verbatim level until they get answered at the edge of the sword.
Quoting 137. KoritheMan:



I don't see how we can be even remotely certain of any of those things.

Global warming is real. The consequences are still largely unknown, though. Especially when that comes to variance in mid-latitude weather.


We can be certain of all of those except how they will affect Atlantic hurricane seasons.
Quoting 139. DeepSeaRising:



We can be certain of all of those except how they will affect Atlantic hurricane seasons.


No we can't.

What research do you have suggesting we can? Everything I've ever read on the subject suggests only a general knowledge of expectations (warmer areas become warmer, wetter areas become wetter, etc.).
Kori we can expect the Western Us to be in drought for the foreseeable future causing snow levels to continually be low. This will cause an impact on tornado seasons. Historic water supplies continuing to disappear,well there's no real debate about that. Desserts in N. Africa expanding and increasing SAL seems likely. Strengthening A/B high continuing to be a factor in sinking air also seems likely. We've changed the jet stream, and this will be the most telling factor in changes in North America weather features.
Quoting 141. DeepSeaRising:

Kori we can expect the Western Us to be in drought for the foreseeable future causing snow levels to continually be low. This will cause an impact on tornado seasons. Historic water supplies continuing to disappear,well there's no real debate about that. Desserts in N. Africa expanding and increasing SAL seems likely. Strengthening A/B high continuing to be a factor in sinking air also seems likely. We've changed the jet stream, and this will be the most telling factor in changes in North America weather features.


Obviously those things will [theoretically] do as you suggest. What I'm disputing is that they will be perpetual or predictable. They may be, but they could just as easily NOT be.
Quoting 142. KoritheMan:



Obviously those things will [theoretically] do as you suggest. What I'm disputing is that they will be perpetual or predictable. They may be, but they could just as easily NOT be.


Yes, the swing of the unpredictable is there. We could see the opposite of norm of AGW and anther monster spring tornado outbreak and a 20 plus Atlantic hurricane season. The chance of those are both high. We can map the likelihood of what's to come, but the polar opposite is likely to be mixed in. Welcome to the machine.
Quoting 143. DeepSeaRising:



Yes, the swing of the unpredictable is there. We could see the opposite of norm of AGW and anther monster spring tornado outbreak and a 20 plus Atlantic hurricane season. The chance of those are both high. We can map the likelihood of what's to come, but the polar opposite is likely to be mixed in. Welcome to the machine.


Global warming will never completely negate the influence of natural variability. I also question the validity of many climate models. Look how much the track has changed with Julio in just five days, for example. I don't particularly believe we can successfully model a forecast that's years into the future.*

*The models also underestimated the melting of the Arctic ice sheet.
Quoting 144. KoritheMan:



Global warming will never completely negate the influence of natural variability. I also question the validity of many climate models. Look how much the track has changed with Julio in just five days, for example. I don't particularly believe we can successful model a forecast that's years into the future.*

*The models also underestimated the melting of the Arctic ice sheet.


Kori I apprciate you greatly and your understanding. We have entered the new age of the unknown and unpredictable. AGW will be far worse than predicted in long term senses and will have seasons of far below and far above the expected. Only good projection is to expect the unexpected.

Quoting 145. DeepSeaRising:


 Only good projection is to expect the unexpected.
Pretty much, dude.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It pops up automatically if you track recon using Google Earth.

Not getting the live missions from tropicalatlantic. 
Odd. 
Africa Getting Active!
SAL is punishing the Atlantic
Good morning news from space:

LIve streaming:
http://rosetta.esa.int/

Rosetta timeline
A timeline of the most crucial steps leading to Rosetta’s arrival at its target comet on Wednesday. Mission operations and science teams at ESA and scientists from multiple countries will be following progress closely.
After completing a complex series of nine orbital manoeuvres since the end of hibernation on 20 January, Rosetta is finally in position to rendezvous with the comet.
Orbit entry will take place on 6 August, and will be triggered by a small but crucial thruster firing lasting just 6 min 26 sec, starting at 09:00 GMT (11:00 CEST). The commands were uploaded during the night of 4 August.
This burn will tip Rosetta into the first leg of a series of three-legged triangular paths about the comet. The legs will be about 100 km long and it will take Rosetta between three and four days to complete each one.

TCMCP3

HURRICANE ISELLE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 24
NWS CENTRAL PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER HONOLULU HI EP092014
0900 UTC WED AUG 06 2014

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR MAUI COUNTY.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* HAWAII COUNTY
* MAUI COUNTY

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN THE HAWAIIAN ISLANDS SHOULD MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF ISELLE. WATCHES WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED FOR ADDITIONAL
ISLANDS ON WEDNESDAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 142.8W AT 06/0900Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 20 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 285 DEGREES AT 11 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 974 MB
EYE DIAMETER 20 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 85 KT WITH GUSTS TO 105 KT.
64 KT....... 30NE 20SE 20SW 30NW.
50 KT....... 90NE 50SE 50SW 85NW.
34 KT.......135NE 90SE 90SW 125NW.
12 FT SEAS..250NE 195SE 165SW 240NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.9N 142.8W AT 06/0900Z
AT 06/0600Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.8N 142.3W

FORECAST VALID 06/1800Z 17.5N 145.3W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
64 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 60NE 30SE 20SW 60NW.
34 KT...110NE 95SE 65SW 105NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/0600Z 18.3N 148.6W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 10SE 10SW 20NW.
50 KT... 45NE 30SE 20SW 45NW.
34 KT...100NE 80SE 50SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 07/1800Z 18.9N 152.0W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 70SE 50SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 08/0600Z 19.5N 154.8W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 25SE 25SW 35NW.
34 KT... 85NE 60SE 55SW 75NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0600Z 20.7N 160.0W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 65NE 40SE 35SW 65NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 10/0600Z 21.5N 165.0W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 11/0600Z 22.0N 169.5W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.9N 142.8W

NEXT ADVISORY AT 06/1500Z

$$
FORECASTER HOUSTON
Issued at 1100 PM HST TUE AUG 05 2014
SUMMARY OF 1100 PM HST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
Location: 16.9N 142.8W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM E OF HILO HAWAII
ABOUT 1030 MI...1660 KM ESE OF HONOLULU HAWAII
Maximum sustained winds: 100 MPH...155 KM/H
Present movement: WNW or 285 degrees AT 13 MPH...20 KM/H
Minimum central pressure: 974 MB...28.77 INCHES
Quoting 144. KoritheMan:



Global warming will never completely negate the influence of natural variability. I also question the validity of many climate models. Look how much the track has changed with Julio in just five days, for example. I don't particularly believe we can successfully model a forecast that's years into the future.*

*The models also underestimated the melting of the Arctic ice sheet.

Confusing weather with climate. It's easy to forecast a warmer planet if, ceteris paribus, the concentration of a greenhouse gas increases.

Quoting 154. cRRKampen:


Confusing weather with climate. It's easy to forecast a warmer planet if, ceteris paribus, the concentration of a greenhouse gas increases.
No no no. I wasn't suggesting the models were incorrect with forecasts of a warmer planet. I'm actually one of the stronger AGW proponents on here.

What I'm saying is that they shouldn't be expected to replicate the consequences of a warming planet with 100% accuracy.
Quoting 141. DeepSeaRising:

Kori we can expect the Western Us to be in drought for the foreseeable future causing snow levels to continually be low. This will cause an impact on tornado seasons. Historic water supplies continuing to disappear,well there's no real debate about that. Desserts in N. Africa expanding and increasing SAL seems likely. Strengthening A/B high continuing to be a factor in sinking air also seems likely. We've changed the jet stream, and this will be the most telling factor in changes in North America weather features.


The conditions you subscribe to N Africa, I would respectfully argue, are highly likely a direct causation of the natural variability of the AMO. Of course, this opinion is no less lacking in merit than that of those who attribute them to AGW.

What I find rather disingenuous is the manner by which each hyped weather event is being promoted as the latest effects of AGW-although there is no irrefutable proof to support that argument. To clarify, the AGW proponents take the evidence (weather) and look to attribute its causation through the presupposition of AGW. To further support their arguments, they reference climate models that have continually failed to accurately hypothesis the short-term effects of the said presupposition. When these projections don't come to pass as theorized, they just simply revert to the fail-proof montra that these catastrophic effects of AGW will perpetually manifest themselves over ever-changing and longer time scales.

As a result of the aforementioned, one can continue to expect AGW proponents to sensationalize and spin every significant weather event as the latest consequence of AGW-when it can just as easily be attributed to the natural variability of our Earth's climate, which will always go through cyclical changes, as they have since the beginning of time.

Does anyone else, with an objective rationale, realize that the AGW proponents have written papers stating that AGW will cause more Atlantic basin hurricanes, and others theorizing the exact opposite? Consequently, they just keep changing the narrative to fit the evidence as it materializes, and most just go along with it without questioning the validity of these arguments and contradictions. Anyone else realize that the popular terminology of "Global Warming" was subsequently modified and promoted as a causation for "Climate Change?" This change was necessary once the in situ data was no longer conforming to the thesis of the AGW agenda. Now, any significant weather event, or even changes in weather, can be promoted as the latest example of a supposed AGW climate.

I generally don't venture into this never-ending debate for those on both sides of this topic are way too emotionally invested, and it doesn't take much for these types of conversations to degrade into a series of unjustified personal attacks. I will conclude by simply stating that I personally believe that most, if not all, of the earth's climate can be attributed to natural variability. That said, I will not go so far as to say that there is zero chance that "we" may (key word, here) have had a small effect on the climate, but if so, I would respectfully argue that it's rather negligible. As Kori alluded to, I also find it rather unrealistic that one can put such uninhibited faith in long-term computer model projections of our complex planet (Climate), when these computer models do so poorly attempting to make short-term forecasts of a comparatively micro-scale event (such as a tropical cyclone).

Now, back to your regular scheduled programming here on the blog. This will be my last post on the subject for the reasons articulated above. Have a great day, everyone! :)

Quoting 156. ncforecaster:



Anyone else realize that the popular terminology of "Global Warming" was subsequently modified and promoted as a causation for "Climate Change?" This change was necessary once the in situ data was no longer conforming to the thesis of the AGW agenda.
Global warming isn't an "agenda", but I do agree with your main point. Ironically I feel that's one of the larger reasons the average person doesn't take AGW seriously.
Quoting 155. KoritheMan:


No no no. I wasn't suggesting the models were incorrect with forecasts of a warmer planet. I'm actually one of the stronger AGW proponents on here.

What I'm saying is that they shouldn't be expected to replicate the consequences of a warming planet with 100% accuracy.


Roger that and to that, I agree.
Quoting 158. KoritheMan:


Global warming isn't an "agenda", but I do agree with your main point. Ironically I feel that's one of the larger reasons the average person doesn't take AGW seriously.


This is why the 'IPCC' used to be called the IPGW?
If the climate (locally or globally) catastrophically warms, how do we react? If if catastrophically cools, how do we react? If the ocean levels rise, fall, more rain, less rain, etc. I personally don't give a crap whether AGW is real or not, whether we caused it or not, whether the climate is changing or not. We as a species need to stop arguing over what is happening and who caused it and start doing a better job planning for ALL eventualities. If you want a perfect example of what happens when you start playing the blame game, look no further than the unholy mess that the US Congress is in right now. Trying to win the argument DOES NOT WORK, not now, not ever. It simply speeds up the process of running ourselves into the ground.
climate change? so confusing. depends which fricking graph i look at. as for data used for these theories thats questionable too. water level here in e cen fl. is the same as it was 30 yrs ago.
Quoting 162. islander101010:

climate change? so confusing. depends which fricking graph i look at. i just dont buy it. water level here in e cen fl. is the same as it was 30 yrs ago.


As the old advertising fine print often says, 'your results may vary'. Folks in California now have their main reservoirs constituting 81% of their state water storage at capacity levels about 50% of where they were two years ago. If their useage rate and drought continues, the math suggests they'll be empty in two years. If we had interstate pipelines for water, as we do for other things, water rich states or states with excess due to floods could make a few bucks pumping it to the water poor ones. Not ascribing any particular cause to the California drought, will leave that for others. Those of us who have the water we need should count ourselves lucky or prudent or maybe both.

Dry Air! DRY AIR EVERYWHERE!


This is incredible, I had no idea: Link
early 1900s there was a drought as bad for calif just more people watch the ull mid atlantic as it moves sw north of p.rico mdr should get more favorable
HMMMMMMMM
Looks like Iselle is soon done and Julio will eat the remains:

Here is an excerpt of the August TSR forecast that calls for an average season.

The main reasons behind TSR forecasting a below-normal season are (1) the expectation that August/September 2014 sea surface temperatures in the tropical North Atlantic will be cooler than average, and (2) the expectation of stronger than average trade winds over the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic during August/September 2014. The former provides heat and moisture to power incipient storms in the main track region, while the latter influences cyclonic vorticity (the spinning up of storms) in the main hurricane track region. Both these factors will have a small to moderate supressing effect on North Atlantic hurricane activity.

Whole forecast is below.

TSR August forecast
Quoting Birkenstocks:
This is incredible, I had no idea: Link
What's amazing is that you had no idea about exactly the same story two days ago.
Quoting 134. DeepSeaRising:

The 2005 season was but nine years ago. To say this will never happen again defies reasoning. This was less than a decade ago. Who knows where hurricane seasons go from this point forward. Only the next thirty years will give a true window into likelihood of this happening again.
There were 46 years between 1887 and 1933, and 72 years between 1933 and 2005. That averages out to about 60 years. Obviously the "return rate" for such an event is pretty high, but it's certainly not impossible. A better way of saying it might be "never again in our lifetimes", which might be more likely to be the truth. OTOH, if similar conditions to those which contributed to 2005/1933/1887 occur again next year, it's equally possible we'll see another high count season then.
Good Morning all..

the 06z Navgem is showing the wave currently approaching the lesser antilles tracking into the GOM



also a new pouch..

SYNOPSIS 2014080500

P13L
12N, 14E
700 hPa

ECMWF: Not a well-defined pouch until 108 hours as P13L leaves Africa. While there is a contribution from both the northern and southern track over west Africa, the northern one appears to contribute more, hence the track has relatively high latitude in the beginning.

GFS: Unlike ECMWF, GFS appears to have a stronger, more consistent circulation on the southern track. Although the circulation is tiny while over Africa, P13L grows and strengthens upon reaching the Atlantic.

UKMET: Similar to ECMWF with more contribution from the northern track.

NAVGEM: Also in the “northern camp”. Eventual distinct pouch depicted as early as 72 hours.

HWRF-GEN:

ECMWF -9.6 v700 120h
GFS -9.6 v700 120h
UKMET -8.2 v700 120h
NAVGEM -8.5 v700 120h
HWGEN ———— ———— ———h

Quoting 170. sar2401:

What's amazing is that you had no idea about exactly the same story two days ago.
00z Euro
Quoting Astrometeor:


Because Hawaii is under threat? It's an easy transition and a good time to talk about the study.
Was Hawaii under any kind of threat last year? Is there a year during hurricane season that Hawaii is not under threat? If Hawaii is under more threat this year, why have an entire blog post that only talks about what some scientists project might happen in 2075-2099?

It's Dr. Masters' blog, so he has a perfect right to publish what he pleases. I'm merely asking why he chose to do so. Seems to me that it's more important to talk about the threat in front of us rather than a threat that's 60+ years away.
CMC has a low developing in the GOM and crossing Florida










Because the supposed increase in Atlantic Hurricanes,frequency and intensity is not happening. Now we have to grab at straws all the way out in the Central Pacific. Hawaii rarely gets hit by Hurricanes. Not happening this summer either!
This could (maybe should) have been the blog topic.

Climate Change may decrease the number of tropical storms and hurricanes affecting the heavily populated Mexican Pacific coast.

That to me is a lot more significant than the increased threat to Hawaii.
Good Morning Folks; the Atlantic and the E-Pac this morning.
Enso models are trending back into strong El-Nino territory and lot of that has to due with this very large subsurface warm pool organizing beneath the equatorial Pacific. This is the difference from the 2014 to 2012 as in 2012 we didn't get a re-enforcing subsurface warm pool.



In this graph below you can see the first warm pool dissipate then a second warm pool takes hold which is what is happening now.





NAM at 84 hours showing a disturbance moving through the Caribbean (more rain for Puerto Rico)





Quoting 182. StormTrackerScott:
Enso models are trending back into strong El-Nino territory and lot of that has to due with this very large subsurface warm pool organizing beneath the equatorial Pacific. This is the difference from the 2014 to 2012 as in 2012 we didn't get a re-enforcing subsurface warm pool.



In this graph below you can see the first warm pool dissipate then a second warm pool takes hold which is what is happening now.



with a reinforcing cool pool behind the 2nd warm pool which is why models have the el nino weakining going into the spring... a powerful el nino in the winter looks realistic with a more warm neutral enso when the 2015 starts but that's just speculation. lots of factors can change.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Thanks for your usual thorough reply. I have about five minutes before I have to leave for an appointment so don't have time to address all your points. Quite frankly, the blog would probably prefer that I didn't. I will send a WUmail regarding the points you bought up later today. I will say that the models used don't seem to agree well with actual observations, the initial model only covers 24 years, not the usual 30 years that's the de facto period for climatology, and the model projections only start in 2075, leaving all the intermediate period as a gap with no way to tell how well the model verifies. I'll just shut up now, since I can already see that we're about to go into the deep end, as usual, when this kind of thing is brought up. Almost no one will read the summary and supplemental information about the study. That's too bad, since the outcome of the study cannot be better than the models and the methods used for modeling.
This next Kelvin Wave organizing could be the reason why the Pacific is so active right now. Also the SOI index has been dropping into El-Nino range lately.

And Africa; not much in the way of significant wave activity over the continent with the exception of one about to exit East of Cape Verde Islands and a cluster of t-storms several hundred miles inland:
  
This the CFS precip forecast. Notice how wet the SW US and Florida is forecast to be this Winter.

Infact this next subsurface warm pool could be the kiss of death for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season.
190. SLU
Quoting 113. TropicalAnalystwx13:


If you're talking about numbers, I'm almost certain we'll see another season like 2005. It might not be immediate, but we should.

1887 featured 19 named storms, and this was well before significant advancements in technology:



1933 featured 20 named storms, and it was also well before the significant advancements in technology:




I think the only reason why we didn't see that type of season again in 2010 was because of the unexpectedly quiet July and early-August period. Two or 3 storms, even though they were weak, during that period would have easily taken us to 22. Furthermore, we had 2 tropical depressions that didn't become storms so that could have easily made 2010 a 24 named storm season. In many respects, the conditions in 2010 were more favorable than in 2005 especially concerning the SSTs.


Quoting 179. overwash12:

Because the supposed increase in Atlantic Hurricanes,frequency and intensity is not happening. Now we have to grab at straws all the way out in the Central Pacific. Hawaii rarely gets hit by Hurricanes. Not happening this summer either!
Frequency =/= landfalls.
Oh no! Its the global warming blog again......
Never ends here, too bad.
Quoting 189. StormTrackerScott:
Infact this next subsurface warm pool could be the kiss of death for the 2014 Atlantic Hurricane season.
not at all.... by the time they form, they will have virtaully no significant effect on the atlantic hurricane season. its already unfavorable without an el nino. this season will be climatalogically average
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
This the CFS precip forecast. Notice how wet the SW US and Florida is forecast to be this Winter.




What dos tha have for September. Oct nov and dec for CA
Quoting 192. SkulDouggery:

Oh no! Its the global warming blog again......
Never ends here, too bad.


The reason for all this action in the Pacific and all of these tropical threats to Hawaii has nothing to do with Climate Change. The reason for this is a new oceanic down welling kelvin Wave coming the Pacific. Nothing to do with Climate change at all.
Quoting 194. Tazmanian:




What dos tha have for September. Oct nov and dec for CA



Quoting StormTrackerScott:







I hop the 1st map is wrong
Quoting 193. wunderweatherman123:

not at all.... by the time they form, they will have virtaully no significant effect on the atlantic hurricane season. its already unfavorable without an el nino. this season will be climatalogically average


I'm sticking with 5 to 7 storms this year. If the Pacific continues to stay this active then my forecast will pan out.



In terms of the CC/GW issue and the current Blog on what may occur to Hawaii, I will only note that computing/modelling is such a large part of the science world, and academia, that we routinely see hundreds of articles and papers come out every year based on the modelling (and particularly in the realm of weather and climate change).  It is publish or perish in the academic world (as well as student candidates for their Masters and P.h.D's) and it is their job to postulate a thesis and program models to help support their research.  Whether many of the conclusions reached, including the current research paper noted by Dr. Masters,end up being a correct hypothesis, and especially long-term projections, will take several decades to determine.  Because of these long-term periods, the recognition for many current papers and research (if they are indeed correct) might well be bestowed on the researchers posthumously; that is just the nature of science and research.  In the world of Astrophysics, many people are still working in the shadow of Albert Einstein (turns out he was correct on several issues) well after his death.    
Another image of from the 06z NAM. This one from 66 hours.
Need to see if this continues for a few more runs.


Accuweather has released their 2014 Fall Forecast.Link
Quoting 175. ncstorm:

00z Euro



Very favorable conditions across the E-Pac to continue cranking out storms. Atlantic looks shut down for business for the next 2 weeks.

Seems like an El Nino type of weather pattern is already happening, except for lack of massive rainfall in California. Remember 1992, when the Atlantic was so quiet, then .... BAM! Along came Andrew. We all know how devastating that hurricane was... And then, BAM .... along came Iniki, and it slammed Hawaii. Hope they are ready for rough weather ahead ... hopefully you will not have to experience another Iniki this year. Whatever happens, looks like your pineapples are going to get wet!
Quoting 201. Climate175:

Accuweather has released their 2014 Fall Forecast.Link


Polar Vortex to Return Early in the Northeast

While the fall will kick off with days of sunshine and temperatures above normal in some of the region's largest cities, including New York City and Philadelphia, the polar vortex may make its return for short, sporadic periods in September.
"The vortex could slip at times, maybe even briefly in September for the Northeast," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "There could be a significant shot of chilly air that comes across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast sometime in mid- to late-September."
As conditions in northern Canada begin to set up similar to last fall, getting colder and unsettled quickly, it is likely that this pattern could become a source for colder air to make its way down at times into the United States, inducing a drop in temperatures for the interior Northeast during mid-fall.
"Temperatures will not be as extreme in November when compared to last year, but October could be an extreme month," Pastelok said.
After short-lived days of the polar vortex in September, the weather should turn a bit warmer in November as rain ramps up across areas from New York City to Boston and Portland, Maine, as well as the rest of the region.
"We will see some dry weather in the Northeast, barring any tropical systems, in September and October but in November it will get wet," Pastelok said.
Following a soaking November for Northeastern residents, El Niño will make its debut early this winter, fueling early winter snow across the area.
"December could get kind of wild due to the very active southern jet stream that is going to provide the moisture for bigger snowstorms," Pastelok said. "The Northeast could have a couple of big storms in December and early January."

Winterlike Cold, Snow to Blast Plains to Rockies
Unlike the Northeast, the trend for the northern Plains and northeastern Rockies will sway more winterlike, as early snow and cold air blast the area this fall.
"October could be a month of snow and cold weather across the northern Plains and in parts of the northeast Rockies," Pastelok said.
Seems like every weather event
is blamed on climate change. Anyone remember Iniki? It happens
Quoting 203. Stormwatch247:

Seems like an El Nino type of weather pattern is already happening, except for lack of massive rainfall in California. Remember 1992, when the Atlantic was so quiet, then .... BAM! Along came Andrew. We all know how devastating that hurricane was... And then, BAM .... along came Iniki, and it slammed Hawaii. Hope they are ready for rough weather ahead ... hopefully you will not have to experience another Iniki this year. Whatever happens, looks like your pineapples are going to get wet!


El-Nino weather patterns have been in place since May. California won't see the benefits of this pattern until October once the southern jet begins to get active.

Quoting 205. westernmob:

Seems like every weather event
is blamed on climate change. Anyone remember Iniki? It happens


I agree, Doc knows better than this. The Pacific being very active right now with Tropical system threatening Hawaii is occurring because of El-Nino rearing its ugly head. Hawaii tends to get increased threats during El-Nino.
Quoting 204. StormTrackerScott:



Polar Vortex to Return Early in the Northeast

While the fall will kick off with days of sunshine and temperatures above normal in some of the region's largest cities, including New York City and Philadelphia, the polar vortex may make its return for short, sporadic periods in September.
"The vortex could slip at times, maybe even briefly in September for the Northeast," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "There could be a significant shot of chilly air that comes across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast sometime in mid- to late-September."
As conditions in northern Canada begin to set up similar to last fall, getting colder and unsettled quickly, it is likely that this pattern could become a source for colder air to make its way down at times into the United States, inducing a drop in temperatures for the interior Northeast during mid-fall.
"Temperatures will not be as extreme in November when compared to last year, but October could be an extreme month," Pastelok said.
After short-lived days of the polar vortex in September, the weather should turn a bit warmer in November as rain ramps up across areas from New York City to Boston and Portland, Maine, as well as the rest of the region.
"We will see some dry weather in the Northeast, barring any tropical systems, in September and October but in November it will get wet," Pastelok said.
Following a soaking November for Northeastern residents, El Niño will make its debut early this winter, fueling early winter snow across the area.
"December could get kind of wild due to the very active southern jet stream that is going to provide the moisture for bigger snowstorms," Pastelok said. "The Northeast could have a couple of big storms in December and early January."

Winterlike Cold, Snow to Blast Plains to Rockies
Unlike the Northeast, the trend for the northern Plains and northeastern Rockies will sway more winterlike, as early snow and cold air blast the area this fall.
"October could be a month of snow and cold weather across the northern Plains and in parts of the northeast Rockies," Pastelok said.
That's what I like to hear :) Yes Please.
New best track now show that BERTHA is now EX
Quoting 202. StormTrackerScott:



Very favorable conditions across the E-Pac to continue cranking out storms. Atlantic looks shut down for business for the next 2 weeks.




If you say so..
EP, 07, 2014080612, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1761W, 65, 990, HU, 64, NEQ, 25, 0, 0, 20, 1009, 200, 25, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, GENEVIEVE, D,
Looks like drier, typical August weather on the way for South Florida. It only takes 1 storm to make this Hurricane season BAD.
Hopefully our luck does not run out.
Quoting 210. ncstorm:



If you say so..


ncstorm, it might be a long season for you as dry air and shear seem to be putting the clamps on anything that tries to form across the MDR. The only thing I see that maybe a potential threat at day 7 to 8 off the SE coast as the Euro tries to spin up something in that region however it does so along a front but is something to watch.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Very favorable conditions across the E-Pac to continue cranking out storms. Atlantic looks shut down for business for the next 2 weeks.




CA will have two watch the W PAC come cot for any lift over hurricanes. From. Over. There. Some times CA can get a good. Soaking rains. In the early. Fall from them
Quoting 214. Tazmanian:




CA will have two watch the W PAC come cot for any lift over hurricanes. From. Over. There. Some times CA can get a good. Soaking rains. In the early. Fall from them


That's true. CFS seems to really begin to ramp up rain chances across California once November comes around which isn't that far away now.
Quoting 213. StormTrackerScott:



ncstorm, it might be a long season for you as dry air and shear seem to be putting the clamps on anything that tries to form across the MDR. The only thing I see that maybe a potential threat at day 7 to 8 off the SE coast as the Euro tries to spin up something in that region however it does so along a front but is something to watch.


yeah, I just keep waiting on that el nino as well that you were predicting earlier as well..I think the season is long for you as Im quite content in seeing two hurricanes and a TD already and its only August 6th..you know how many times you and your comrades have said nothing for the next two weeks and viola it changes..

but like I told you earlier..if you say so :)
Quoting 216. ncstorm:



yeah, I just keep waiting on that el nino as well that you were predicting earlier as well..I think the season is long for you as Im quite content in seeing two hurricanes and a TD already and its only August 6th..you know how many times you and your comrades have said nothing for the next two weeks and viola it changes..

but like I told you earlier..if you say so :)


LOL! El-Nino is going to come this time around however it seems to be taking its sweet time but this second sub surface warm pool will likely do the trick. The problem is with El-Nino coming on late it could last into the 2015 hurricane season. Not good!
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


That's true. CFS seems to really begin to ramp up rain chances across California once November comes around which isn't that far away now.



And monsoon season been vary good here so far The GFS had a few more strong monsoon events. For CA come mid two late aug
Quoting 218. Tazmanian:




And monsoon season been vary good here so far The GFS had a few more strong monsoon events. For CA come mid two late aug


I heard reports of flash flooding in Palm Springs, California last weekend as 2" to 3" of rain fell. Even had some rain in Los Angeles.
Quoting unknowncomic:
Looks like drier, typical August weather on the way for South Florida. It only takes 1 storm to make this Hurricane season BAD.
Hopefully our luck does not run out.


When did "drier" become typical August weather for S. Florida?

Maybe you just meant the weather is expected to be dier than usual for this time of year.

I know over here in S.W. Florida, August is the wettest month of the year on average.

City
Fort Myers
State
Florida

Average Annual Precipitation
55.93 inches


January
1.94 inches

February
2.15 inches

March
2.88 inches

April
2.18 inches

May
2.65 inches

June
10.09 inches

July
9.04 inches

August
10.14 inches


September
8.31 inches

October
2.88 inches

November
1.96 inches

December
1.71
Quoting 206. StormTrackerScott:


El-Nino weather patterns have been in place since May. California won't see the benefits of this pattern until October once the southern jet begins to get active.



We already got some rain this past weekend. According to my in-laws, who've lived here a lot longer than me, the last time there was an all-night rain event like Saturday night in the summer was 2004, and the following rainy season saw 250% of average precip. Fingers crossed that this was a sign of things to come.
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I heard reports of flash flooding in Palm Springs, California last weekend as 2" to 3" of rain fell. Even had some rain in Los Angeles.



Yep
Quoting 179. overwash12:

Because the supposed increase in Atlantic Hurricanes,frequency and intensity is not happening. Now we have to grab at straws all the way out in the Central Pacific. Hawaii rarely gets hit by Hurricanes. Not happening this summer either!


Since 1995, the number of named storms in the Atlantic basin has definitely increased. We are still in a 20-30 year active season. Regardless of the hurricane intensities, or where they make landfall .. it's just a cycle. It might be changing eventually, but that is normal ....

From about 1970 to 1994, it was slower in the Atlantic basin .... but there were several years in that time frame where the US Gulf Coast and Florida got slammed by devastating hurricanes.

Looking in the past, (before 1970), there are 20-30 year cycles of increased and decreased activity in the Atlantic, regardless of where hurricanes made landfall. During the 1950s, the US eastern seaboard got slammed.

Not betting that the US coast is out of the woods yet .... too early in the season to make that call !
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


I'm sticking with 5 to 7 storms this year. If the Pacific continues to stay this active then my forecast will pan out.





I'll fire up the crow Scott. Those numbers are way too low. The NWS and all the professional agencies think at least 9-12. Good luck bubba. And no, we wont be kissing the Atlantic hurricane season goodbye as its the beginning of August and we have the peak months still to come.
Quoting prcane4you:
ncstorm and TrollTrackerScott are boring everyone on this blog


lol, nice nickname :o) fits well.
Hi Scott, there is no El-Nino at this time and their has not been one so far this summer. The Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons are not being affected by an EL-Nino. Do you remember all the Nino forecast earlier this year and look how that turned out. I wish we would get a Nino or Nina, just something to change the weather pattern in the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. If we do get a Nino, it should be weak to moderate and dissipate before the next hurricane season, hopefully improving the conditions for storms in the Atlantic. Hurricanes are a part of the natural cycle for the coastal areas of the U.S. and Caribbean and are beneficial to these coastal area's as they bring much needed rain to these area's and also clean up the coastal waters in these area's. If you live in these area's you need to build your house to withstand these storms and be prepared ever season, no matter the conditions in the Atlantic or Caribbean. I much rather live in an area that is threatened by Hurricanes than by Tornadoes or Fires, at least I have time to get ready. As far as 5 or 6 more storms this year we will have that many next month.
Quoting NativeSun:
Hi Scott, there is no El-Nino at this time and their has not been one so far this summer. The Atlantic and Pacific hurricane seasons are not being affected by an EL-Nino. Do you remember all the Nino forecast earlier this year and look how that turned out. I wish we would get a Nino or Nina, just something to change the weather pattern in the Tropical Atlantic and Caribbean. If we do get a Nino, it should be weak to moderate and dissipate before the next hurricane season, hopefully improving the conditions for storms in the Atlantic. Hurricanes are a part of the natural cycle for the coastal areas of the U.S. and Caribbean and are beneficial to these coastal area's as they bring much needed rain to these area's and also clean up the coastal waters in these area's. If you live in these area's you need to build your house to withstand these storms and be prepared ever season, no matter the conditions in the Atlantic or Caribbean. I much rather live in an area that is threatened by Hurricanes than by Tornadoes or Fires, at least I have time to get ready. As far as 5 or 6 more storms this year we will have that many next month.




No we won't.
Quoting 226. StormWx:



lol, nice nickname :o) fits well.


ahh how cute..you have to quote your other handle as its on ignore..

..

your handles be bugging..LOL..

have a good one everyone..will be back later..

Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Very favorable conditions across the E-Pac to continue cranking out storms. Atlantic looks shut down for business for the next 2 weeks.





Yep if you want two track storm this is the place two be the W and E PAC that is the Atlantic is closed for the rest of the season
232. 1344
There's hope to end the California drought; I agree. The monsoon has been good so far and they could get rain from some ex-hurricanes in September.

not so fast
Quoting 14. luvtogolf:

The key word in the headline "may."


Actually the key word"may" is defined by this...

"The frequency of a tropical cyclone in a 5x5 area over the Hawaiian Islands increased from about 0.7 - 1.2 storms per year to about 2 - 3 storms per year. Note that the research projects that the heavily populated Mexican Pacific coast will see a decrease in tropical storms and hurricanes--about one less storm per year. The green stippling indicates statistical significance at the 99 percent confidence level."

In other words there is a 99% of a 2-3 fold increase within 75 years of tropical systems that will impact that area 5x5. May isn't the word I would chose to describe a 99% probability of occurrence.
Man some days on here are like i am watching these guys all over again.



Been a nice couple of weeks without it, but like all good things... they must end
Quoting 205. westernmob:

Seems like every weather event
is blamed on climate change. Anyone remember Iniki? It happens


I totally agree with you!
yeah, I just keep waiting on that el nino as well that you were predicting earlier as well..I think the season is long for you as Im quite content in seeing two hurricanes and a TD already and its only August 6th..you know how many times you and your comrades have said nothing for the next two weeks and viola it changes..

but like I told you earlier..if you say so :)


ahem....some of us have been consistent in our el nino reporting......and i will agree that you in your belief that el nino will not form have been equally consistent...the problem arises when people post outrageous claims on here...and are wrong time and time again....and for some reason..we lose focus on what the experts are saying...and by experts..i mean those of the CPC...long time university professors such as timmerman and others that have devoted their work to studying the ENSO patterns....they never predicted an el nino last winter...they never predicted a super el nino....and they have been steady in saying when the likelyhood of this event to take place...and that has been all along....fall/winter of this year
Quoting 206. StormTrackerScott:



El-Nino weather patterns have been in place since May. California won't see the benefits of this pattern until October once the southern jet begins to get active.


Indeed. There was a very Nino like pattern for months then eased up. Now here we are near the peak of hurricane season, and neither the MDR or Caribbean show the typical QBO when a Nino is present. There are some subtle signs that the atmosphere is changing, but probably not what would be considered the normal switch. I believe we will have some interesting and perhaps perplexing weather coming our way....This includes a threat for severe weather this fall ( not unusual ) and a stormy cold winter.
Quoting 207. StormTrackerScott:



I agree, Doc knows better than this. The Pacific being very active right now with Tropical system threatening Hawaii is occurring because of El-Nino rearing its ugly head. Hawaii tends to get increased threats during El-Nino.


You know better than this. At no point does Dr. M's entry blame the current storms on climate change. It's not even implied. The entry is talking about storms AT THE END OF THE CENTURY.
just as an update........in an el nino forming year......the average number of atlantic basin named storms is 8.......in the june/july months the average is 0.8 of which we have matched that with only 1 named storm forming....the average named storms is 2.4 of which we have already seen 1...so...we should see at least one more....and in fact....two more would still keep us close to the statistical averages
You know better than this. At no point does Dr. M's entry blame the current storms on climate change. It's not even implied. The entry is talking about storms AT THE END OF THE CENTURY.


thanx xyrus....well said
Quoting 220. Sfloridacat5:



When did "drier" become typical August weather for S. Florida?

Maybe you just meant the weather is expected to be dier than usual for this time of year.

I know over here in S.W. Florida, August is the wettest month of the year on average.

City
Fort Myers
State
Florida

Average Annual Precipitation
55.93 inches


January
1.94 inches

February
2.15 inches

March
2.88 inches

April
2.18 inches

May
2.65 inches

June
10.09 inches

July
9.04 inches

August
10.14 inches


September
8.31 inches

October
2.88 inches

November
1.96 inches

December
1.71

I'm on the east coast Bro, and August it usually dries out--Strong Bermuda High- Southeast wind off the ocean, then Labor Day usually at storm out there that may or may not catch a trough ride and the rainy period begins again. Yes the west coast of Florida gets the storms in August.
Quoting 131. VAbeachhurricanes:

Weakening could be rapid, just sucking in that dry air


What a difference from 48 hours ago.
Quoting 205. westernmob:

Seems like every weather event
is blamed on climate change. Anyone remember Iniki? It happens
It's less the individual event [Iniki] than the trends. Note the post is not saying these storms are caused by CC. Rather it is saying CC could lead to these kinds of landfall being more common. The climate patterns which are described would logically put HI in the path of more storms. To use an ATL example, there's a reason why Grand Bahama, the northern-most Bahamian island of size, is often considered the "hurricane capital" of the basin. That reason is that TRENDS in hurricane track put it the path of a great number of storms. These trends are the result of synoptic patterns like location of the mean AB high and troughing over the CONUS. The way the patterns shift influences the number of landfalling NS Grand Bahama sees. So if SSTs warm near HI, a shift in the mean high over the EPac could lead to more storms reaching HI from the east.

Nobody's blaming anything on CC.
Sorry Taz, wrong again, their will be 5 or 6 storms In Sept. and a few more this month and into Oct. This will bring the total to a more normal season and maybe a few extra's to bring it up to 14 to 16 named storms.
Back to our regularly scheduled program.
Quoting 207. StormTrackerScott:



I agree, Doc knows better than this. The Pacific being very active right now with Tropical system threatening Hawaii is occurring because of El-Nino rearing its ugly head. Hawaii tends to get increased threats during El-Nino.
Yeah, but Doc is also very aware that this type of threat [i.e. from the east] is very unusual. He's not saying that increases threats during el Nino are caused by CC. He's saying that storms persisting to HI from the east due to increased SSTs near there and shifts in synoptic means could become less anomalous. Right now both Iselle and Julio being in a position to threaten HI is highly anomalous.

Actually I'm still waiting to see if they'll both make it that far. When Iselle was at its best it was still 1000+ miles away from HI.... even quasi-annular storms aren't guaranteed to persist over that distance over the SSTs Iselle is expected to encounter.
Quoting 210. ncstorm:



If you say so..
I expect to see something pop up between 10th - 14th. Definitely expecting 6-8 NS between now and the end of Sep.
Quoting 237. ricderr:

yeah, I just keep waiting on that el nino as well that you were predicting earlier as well..I think the season is long for you as Im quite content in seeing two hurricanes and a TD already and its only August 6th..you know how many times you and your comrades have said nothing for the next two weeks and viola it changes..

but like I told you earlier..if you say so :)


ahem....some of us have been consistent in our el nino reporting......and i will agree that you in your belief that el nino will not form have been equally consistent...the problem arises when people post outrageous claims on here...and are wrong time and time again....and for some reason..we lose focus on what the experts are saying...and by experts..i mean those of the CPC...long time university professors such as timmerman and others that have devoted their work to studying the ENSO patterns....they never predicted an el nino last winter...they never predicted a super el nino....and they have been steady in saying when the likelyhood of this event to take place...and that has been all along....fall/winter of this year


Some of these experts even said we would have El-Nino in Spring and one of those did a blog post for Doc Jeff Masters back in February by the name of Dr. MV but nice try ricderr. Maybe you didn't see the NOAA blog a few months back when some on on there saying that a strong El-Nino was coming by summer or fall.
gfs shows the unusual development moving off n carolina and also shows the cv region getting more active next wk http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=201 4080606&field=Sea Level Pressure&hour=Animation
Quoting 220. Sfloridacat5:



When did "drier" become typical August weather for S. Florida?

Maybe you just meant the weather is expected to be dier than usual for this time of year.

I know over here in S.W. Florida, August is the wettest month of the year on average.

City
Fort Myers
State
Florida

Agreed. We usually are dry here only at the very beginning of Aug. After that it is at least heavy showers every p.m. with the threat of a tropical entity or two towards the end of the month being quite high.
SAL in the Central Atlantic is starting to wane/back off from the ITCZ as is normal this time of the year going into mid-late August as the subtropical ridge also moves into place across the Atlantic for the Cape Verde part of the season.  But it was so pervasive the past few months that SST's are marginal North of 10N in the Central Atlantic.  The point is that we might see some of the Cape Verde storms struggle in that region this year until they reach more favorable conditions further West closer to the Antilles.  We are only 35 days from the peak but the Central Atlantic has a bit of catching up to SST wise in the next 3 weeks in that part of the MDR:


Quoting 227. Climate175:


The most interesting thing for me about this map is that it shows a dry Sahel and AEW zone of Africa, which is pretty much the OPPOSITE of what we've been seeing so far this season....
It's amusing/depressing that a fantastic scientific blog entry written by a very knowledgeable and respected scientist has to be accompanied by a number of forum comments from so many displaying a profound inability to understand that science, and--worse--an ideological unwillingness to even learn it. Dr. Masters wrote about, and posted links to, a peer-reviewed paper discussing the possibility that climate change might just increase the northern range of Central Pacific cyclones in the future. He then shared that with what he likely hopes is an open-minded, intellectually-honest audience. But instead of folks objectively and politely discussing the science, the forum is rife with typical contrarian knee-jerk responses indicating that those commenting didn't even bother reading what Dr. Masters took the time to write.

Sigh....

Ah, well. A man can always hope, can't he? ;-)
Quoting 253. BahaHurican:

The most interesting thing for me about this map is that it shows a dry Sahel and AEW zone of Africa, which is pretty much the OPPOSITE of what we've been seeing so far this season....
I noticed that too, very very interesting.
Quoting 250. islander101010:

gfs shows the unusual development moving off n carolina and also shows the cv region getting more active next wk
GFS has been showing this since late last month.

Quoting 252. weathermanwannabe:

The SAL in the Central Atlantic is starting to wane/back off from the ITCZ as is normal this time of the year going into mid-late August as the subtropical ridge also moves into place across the Atlantic for the Cape Verde part of the season but is was so pervasive the past few months that ST's are marginal North of 10N in the Central Atlantic. The point is that we might see some of the Cape Verde storms struggle in that region this year until they reach more favorable conditions further West closer to the Antilles. We are only 35 days from the peak but the Central Atlantic has a bit of catching up to SST wise in the next 3 weeks in that part of the MDR:
img style="max-width: 501px; width: 500px;" src="http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/spl itE.jpg">


SSTs off the CONUS east coast certainly could support a hurricane right up to the Jersey coast... I don't know about things getting into the GOM, but I certainly could see a few more "coastal runner" type storms forming.... :o/
I know I should not bring the FA again, no one likes hearing it due it being with a grain of salt, but they seem to say Sept could get active and a hurricane threat for Mid-Atlantic.
September 2014
1st-3rd. Record low temperatures accompany fair skies for Labor Day.
4th-7th. Clearing, unseasonably chilly air after a day of rain.
8th-11th. Continued unseasonably chilly, dry.
12th-15th. Lots of cloudiness. An offshore tropical storm could pose a threat to coastal New England.
16th-19th. Hurricane threat Mid-Atlantic coast; tropical cyclone moves inland possibly bringing flooding rains inland across Virginias, parts of Pennsylvania, New York.
20th-23rd. More scattered showers.
24th-27th. Variably cloudy skies with more widely scattered showers.
28th-30th. Increasingly cloudy.
It'll be interesting to see how things will change in the next week or so. Stronger tropical waves coming off africa and an upward phase of the MJO will start coming into our basin. Models continue to show a more active trend and then there's the potential for the AMO to turn to a more positive phase in time for the peak of the season. Very exciting stuff!
Bertha is now extratropical by NHC
Some of these experts even said we would have El-Nino in Spring and one of those did a blog post for Doc Jeff Masters back in February by the name of Dr. MV but nice try ricderr. Maybe you didn't see the NOAA blog a few months back when some on on there saying that a strong El-Nino was coming by summer or fall.

scott.....i will not discredit that doc mv is a very learned man.....but he runs a pay weather service to serve clients looking for long term weather forecasting and trends...he looks at many aspects of the weather and climate....the people i mentioned...follow...and have not jumped on the super bandwagon....nor stated that we would have a spring event....focus their study and work on ENSO primarily...that is what i stated in my post....no trying about it...it is what it is
Quoting 254. Neapolitan:

It's amusing/depressing that a fantastic scientific blog entry written by a very knowledgeable and respected scientist has to be accompanied by a number of forum comments from so many displaying a profound inability to understand that science, and--worse--an ideological unwillingness to even learn it. Dr. Masters wrote about, and posted links to, a peer-reviewed paper discussing the possibility that climate change might just increase the northern range of Central Pacific cyclones in the future. He then shared that with what he likely hopes is an open-minded, intellectually-honest audience. But instead of folks objectively and politely discussing the science, the forum is rife with typical contrarian knee-jerk responses indicating that those commenting didn't even bother reading what Dr. Masters took the time to write.

Sigh....

Ah, well. A man can always hope, can't he? ;-)
Good morning Nea..My thoughts too...I posted this comment last night to Pottery...

Greetings Pott........Everywhere I go, there are always folks that discuss the weather. Needless to say, almost all of them say the climate has changed dramatically in there homeland the past 30 years. People have doubts the AGW is occurring, which Is debatable, but it is the people who say that there is nothing major going on with the worlds climate that really need to study more. It is annoying when physical evidence and incontrovertible proof exists, and is explained clear enough for even non science minded people to understand, but say that its all an agenda and nothing is happening...I would say more, but would likely get chucked for a day...
interesting tropical wave at 52w could the models be out to lunch?
Quoting 249. StormTrackerScott:



Some of these experts even said we would have El-Nino in Spring and one of those did a blog post for Doc Jeff Masters back in February by the name of Dr. MV but nice try ricderr. Maybe you didn't see the NOAA blog a few months back when some on on there saying that a strong El-Nino was coming by summer or fall.
I posted a theory I have on why Nino lost some of its momentum about a month ago. I would like to post it again if I can find the time.
Last Advisory on Bertha is out.
Extratropical Bertha
Bye bye big Bertha



Hope you enjoy your time in the UK and the rest of your Euro trip
Maybe you didn't see the NOAA blog a few months back when some on on there saying that a strong El-Nino was coming by summer or fall.

actually i did....well....not really spring as they didn't say that....nope.....they never did.....now they did on may 7th post a blog detailing that the models forecast ranges above 0.5 during summer...in june they talked about the "SPRING" barrier.......but as for them discussing formation of el nino during spring...well....nope
Loop

three hurricanes in the CPAC/EPAC
I posted a theory I have on why Nino lost some of its momentum about a month ago. I would like to post it again if I can find the time.


there were some good articlesa month back on the temporary cool pool we're witnessing now.....i expect we'll see something noting this in the coming enso monthly update
Quoting 262. islander101010:

interesting tropical wave at 52w could the models be out to lunch?
Not really. The GFS has picked up on it a few times. Have not checked it this morning
270. MahFL
Most of the MDR is pretty moist again.

Quoting 268. ricderr:

I posted a theory I have on why Nino lost some of its momentum about a month ago. I would like to post it again if I can find the time.


there were some good articlesa month back on the temporary cool pool we're witnessing now.....i expect we'll see something noting this in the coming enso monthly update


Don't worry we have another sub surface warm pool in the making and now some models are back on the moderate to strong El-nino train.

Quoting 268. ricderr:

I posted a theory I have on why Nino lost some of its momentum about a month ago. I would like to post it again if I can find the time.


there were some good articlesa month back on the temporary cool pool we're witnessing now.....i expect we'll see something noting this in the coming enso monthly update


CFS actually forecasted the cool pool replacing the last warm pool with another developing back in June. Basically the first warm pooled failed to get us to El-Nino but it appears the 2nd one will do the job this time around.
Quoting 270. MahFL:

Most of the MDR is pretty moist again.




Waiting on the latest updates but it appears the MDR will go down as the driest in history for July. TA13 brought this up a couple of days ago.
Quoting 253. BahaHurican:

The most interesting thing for me about this map is that it shows a dry Sahel and AEW zone of Africa, which is pretty much the OPPOSITE of what we've been seeing so far this season....
California is also in one of its worst droughts the opposite of what the map is showing.
CFS actually forecasted the cool pool replacing the last warm pool with another developing back in June. Basically the first warm pooled failed to get us to El-Nino but it appears the 2nd one will do the job this time around.

yep...lost the spring barrier and they picked up on that...i remember a blogger who pooed pooed that forecast when it came out :-)
Quoting 275. ricderr:

CFS actually forecasted the cool pool replacing the last warm pool with another developing back in June. Basically the first warm pooled failed to get us to El-Nino but it appears the 2nd one will do the job this time around.

yep...lost the spring barrier and they picked up on that...i remember a blogger who pooed pooed that forecast when it came out :-)


That was me. I just didn't believe that plus 6C anomalies would just go poof like they did. This next warm pool looks like plus 3C anomalies which should support atleast a moderate event.

Record warm "sub surface" warm pool back last spring but the atmosphere just wouldn't respond with weaker trades but SOI is at -5.5 on the 30 day runs so we will have to see if this can continue to get lower into El-Nino territory over the coming weeks.
Quoting 275. ricderr:

CFS actually forecasted the cool pool replacing the last warm pool with another developing back in June. Basically the first warm pooled failed to get us to El-Nino but it appears the 2nd one will do the job this time around.

yep...lost the spring barrier and they picked up on that...i remember a blogger who pooed pooed that forecast when it came out :-)


Did you get any much needed rain last week?
Wow, two hurricanes in the CPAC. When was the last time, if ever, that has happened? Very rare event we're seeing today.
Say what you all want to say but this season has not been nearly as boring as last season.. It's only the beginning of August and we already had one landfalling Hurricane along with a close encounter for the East Coast.
Quoting Neapolitan:
It's amusing/depressing
Neo.
I've been reading this blog for over 6 years, mostly for Dr. Masters comments and those of the more erudite bloggers. As far as the rest are concerned not much has changed with respect to understanding the science. I suspect that is why my ignore list is in the 100s.
Quoting Stoopid1:
Wow, two hurricanes in the CPAC. When was the last time, if ever, that has happened? Very rare event we're seeing today.


It might end up being three sometime soon, if Iselle can hold it together a little longer.
The ENSO Precipitation Index (ESPI) for the last 30 days is 0.77

Wow the ESPI has shot up again and the SOI is down to -5.5
283. 1344
Quoting 281. CybrTeddy:



It might end up being three sometime soon, if Iselle can hold it together a little longer.


Doubtful. Genevieve is set to leave soon.

We have 3 hurricanes in the E/CPAC though.
That was me. I just didn't believe that plus 6C anomalies would just go poof like they did. This next warm pool looks like plus 3C anomalies which should support atleast a moderate event.

Record warm "sub surface" warm pool back last spring but the atmosphere just wouldn't respond with weaker trades but SOI is at -5.5 on the 30 day runs so we will have to see if this can continue to get lower into El-Nino territory over the coming weeks.


i think you have focused too much on the anomaly figure and not the actual temperature.....couple that with the fact that the eastern pacific during the first wave was warming and even those the anomalies were high...they weren't as significant to the overall picture....now this time...although the anomalies aren't as high...they should arrive at a time when the pacific surface temps are cooling...thus why i believe an el nino will occur
Did you get any much needed rain last week?

parts got rain.,...no one got as much as was forecast,......our official rainfall for ytd is at 1.9 inches
Quoting 276. StormTrackerScott:


Record warm "sub surface" warm pool back last spring but the atmosphere just wouldn't respond with weaker trades but SOI is at -5.5 on the 30 day runs so we will have to see if this can continue to get lower into El-Nino territory over the coming weeks.


I think the SOI is likely to rise in the near future, due to the development of a negative IOD(warm anomalies West and South of Sumatra). This should lower the barometric pressures in the area around Darwin, raising the SOI.




While this doesn't necessarily preclude an El Nino from happening, the IOD is almost always positive during El Nino events. Check out the Kelvin wave in the Indian Ocean that's causing this.


Hurricane Iniki 92 came in from the South.

Thats the common, or more susceptible track for Hawaii...as the SST's maintain the Storm from Below.

Two from the West are not the impactors usually as the ones from the South.

But it is rare in my experience.



Quoting 286. TimSoCal:



I think the SOI is likely to rise in the near future, due to the development of a negative IOD(warm anomalies West and South of Sumatra). This should lower the barometric pressures in the area around Darwin, raising the SOI.



While this doesn't necessarily preclude an El Nino from happening, the IOD is almost always positive during El Nino events. Check out the Kelvin wave in the Indian Ocean that's causing this.



I was gonna say, doesnt the pressure at Darwin rise with the approach of a Nino?
Quoting 281. CybrTeddy:



It might end up being three sometime soon, if Iselle can hold it together a little longer.


I don't think it will happen. Julio is too far from the Central Pacific's AOR. Genevieve will be in the Western Pacific before Julio can get to the CPAC. Iselle will likely have weakened to a tropical storm by the time Julio gets to the CPAC as well.
Q: 281, Cybrteddy:

850 vort at 53W just shot up... in just a couple hours.
Quoting 287. Patrap:

Hurricane Iniki 92 came in from the South.

Thats the common, or more susceptible track for Hawaii...as the SST's maintain the Storm from Below.

Two from the West are not the impactors usually as the ones from the South.

But it is rare in my experience.




Yep...59,s Hurricane Dot was rare, and produced a 103 mph gust on Kauai.



Formed August 1, 1959
Dissipated August 8, 1959
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 150 mph (240 km/h)
Lowest pressure 952 mbar 28.11 inHg
Fatalities 2 indirect
Damage $6 million (1959 USD)
Areas affected Hawaiʻi

Dot produced heavy rainfall and gusty winds as it passed south of the Big Island, Lanai, Maui, Molokai, and Oahu, resulting in minor damage. In Oahu, some homes along the coast were unroofed, and damage from wave action was also reported. Damage from these four islands totaled US$150,000, and two indirect deaths occurred in Lanai. Extensive damage occurred on Kauai as Dot made landfall, producing wind gusts as high as 103 mph (166 km/h) and toppling trees and power lines. Widespread power outages affected the island, causing telecommunications and water systems to fail. Although infrastructure was damaged to an extent by floodwater and strong winds, crops suffered the most losses. Cane sugar crops sustained US$2.7 million in losses. Overall, damage from Dot across Hawaii totaled US$6 million, and a disaster area declaration and state of emergency took effect for the archipelago after the hurricane's passage..WIKI

1982,s Iwa was a costly hurricane for some of the islands and had the south track you mentioned..





The hurricane devastated the islands of Niʻihau, Kauaʻi, and Oʻahu with wind gusts exceeding 100 mph (160 km/h) and rough seas exceeding 30 feet (9 m) in height. The first significant hurricane to hit the Hawaiian Islands since statehood in 1959, Iwa severely damaged or destroyed 2,345 buildings, including 1,927 houses, leaving 500 people homeless. Damage throughout the state totaled $312 million (1982 USD, $762 million 2014 USD). One person was killed from the high seas, and three deaths were indirectly related to the hurricane's aftermath.


Formed November 19, 1982
Dissipated November 25, 1982
Highest winds 1-minute sustained: 90 mph (150 km/h)
Lowest pressure 968 mbar 28.59 inHg
Fatalities 1 direct, 3 indirect
Damage $312 million (1982 USD)
Areas affected Hawaiʻi


WIKI
Quoting 234. ILwthrfan:



Actually the key word"may" is defined by this...

"The frequency of a tropical cyclone in a 5%uFFFDx5%uFFFD area over the Hawaiian Islands increased from about 0.7 - 1.2 storms per year to about 2 - 3 storms per year. Note that the research projects that the heavily populated Mexican Pacific coast will see a decrease in tropical storms and hurricanes--about one less storm per year. The green stippling indicates statistical significance at the 99 percent confidence level."

In other words there is a 99% of a 2-3 fold increase within 75 years of tropical systems that will impact that area 5%uFFFDx5%uFFFD. May isn't the word I would chose to describe a 99% probability of occurrence.



Thats not what that means at all. 99% confidence level means that there is a 99% or greater chance that the data is statistically significant, not that there is a 99% chance that said prediction would occur. If that were true it wouldn't be a prediction.
Hurricane Dot August 4 1959 near Hawaii..Superimposed i,m sure.


Is Iselle and Julio still going to hit or get close to Hawaii?
89 today and muggy.But STILL not as bad as 2012 where multiple days were in the upper 90's and 100's.I'm actually surprised by the lack of 90 degree days this summer.I'm glad...It just makes me wonder about Fall and winter :).
Quoting StormTrackerScott:


Polar Vortex to Return Early in the Northeast

While the fall will kick off with days of sunshine and temperatures above normal in some of the region's largest cities, including New York City and Philadelphia, the polar vortex may make its return for short, sporadic periods in September.
"The vortex could slip at times, maybe even briefly in September for the Northeast," AccuWeather Lead Long-Range Forecaster Paul Pastelok said. "There could be a significant shot of chilly air that comes across the Great Lakes region and into the interior Northeast sometime in mid- to late-September."
As conditions in northern Canada begin to set up similar to last fall, getting colder and unsettled quickly, it is likely that this pattern could become a source for colder air to make its way down at times into the United States, inducing a drop in temperatures for the interior Northeast during mid-fall.
"Temperatures will not be as extreme in November when compared to last year, but October could be an extreme month," Pastelok said.
After short-lived days of the polar vortex in September, the weather should turn a bit warmer in November as rain ramps up across areas from New York City to Boston and Portland, Maine, as well as the rest of the region.
"We will see some dry weather in the Northeast, barring any tropical systems, in September and October but in November it will get wet," Pastelok said.
Following a soaking November for Northeastern residents, El Niño will make its debut early this winter, fueling early winter snow across the area.
"December could get kind of wild due to the very active southern jet stream that is going to provide the moisture for bigger snowstorms," Pastelok said. "The Northeast could have a couple of big storms in December and early January."

Winterlike Cold, Snow to Blast Plains to Rockies
Unlike the Northeast, the trend for the northern Plains and northeastern Rockies will sway more winterlike, as early snow and cold air blast the area this fall.
"October could be a month of snow and cold weather across the northern Plains and in parts of the northeast Rockies," Pastelok said.


This just sounds like a typical Autumn. September almost always has cold shots into the northern half of the U.S and the first freeze of the season occurs in the northern quarter of the U.S that month. BTW Sept 24, 1974 produced frost in the outer suburbs of the DC area while Oct 3-4 produced frost almost everywhere in the DC metro area (including my home) except wooded regions and small heat island cores. The following winter was very mild.
Can't see Iselle surviving until Hawaii, should be a non-issue for them



Quoting washingtonian115:
89 today and muggy.But STILL not as bad as 2012 where multiple days were in the upper 90's and 100's.I'm actually surprised by the lack of 90 degree days this summer.I'm glad...It just makes me wonder about Fall and winter :).


And I'm growing stuff I used to grow in the 70s, Broccoli and Lettuce through the summer. The broccoli is about finished.. an orange and black species of stink bug usually wipes out whatever survives the heat sometime in late July or August and while they're late I am starting to see them. But I may have lettuce continuously from May 1 to Christmas this year.

Sometimes I wish scientists would keep their opinions to themselves.

It reminds me of Lavas Flovus in 79 A.D. He said, "Beware the volcano" as the residents said, "What's a volcano?"

Quoting 279. reedzone:

Say what you all want to say but this season has not been nearly as boring as last season.. It's only the beginning of August and we already had one landfalling Hurricane along with a close encounter for the East Coast.


Bertha hasn't quite finished yet, there's the other side of the Atlantic where the remnants will be land falling soon.
Nothing major but still going to be a problem for some in northern Europe.
Very warm in the whole Baltic area this year and abnormally warm SSTs to the northern coasts of Norway into the Arctic.
A mere 35/C here in southern Spain today.
301. JRRP

Quoting 295. washingtonian115:

89 today and muggy.But STILL not as bad as 2012 where multiple days were in the upper 90's and 100's.I'm actually surprised by the lack of 90 degree days this summer.I'm glad...It just makes me wonder about Fall and winter :).
Squirrels are going nuts literally, and as I take summer walks I see more trees getting shades of yellow and reds and falling off. This winter we are going to be having some fun.
303. wxmod
Arctic sea ice. Pacific to Atlantic shipping route is opening.

"The world is entering the most significant period of invasive species contamination in two million years as Arctic ice melts away and new shipping routes threaten to open the floodgates between foreign eco systems, causing irreversible damage."http://rt.com/news/162264-melting-arctic-ice-spec ies/

Quoting 299. Grothar:

Sometimes I wish scientists would keep their opinions to themselves.

It reminds me of Lavas Flovus in 79 A.D. He said, "Beware the volcano" as the residents said, "What's a volcano?"


God succeeded explaining the definition of volcano in vivid detail.
Quoting 294. catastropheadjuster:

Is Iselle and Julio still going to hit or get close to Hawaii?


Iselle


Julio

Quoting 301. JRRP:



That is a big one..Reminds me of the t wave that started Hurricane Allen.
Sunrise on a dry Iselle, choking to death

The last time two hurricanes existed simultaneously in the Central Pacific was 1993, with hurricanes Keoni and Fernanda.

1993 Pacific hurricane season

Genevieve is also set to be the first Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone to enter the Western Pacific since Hurricane John, which crossed the dateline on August 28, 1994. This is a pretty awesome day to track the Central Pacific, you don't see this too often!
Quoting 302. Climate175:

Squirrels are going nuts literally, and as I take summer walks I see more trees getting shades of yellow and reds and falling off. This winter we are going to be having some fun.
Yes more trees are turning and leaves are falling off .In recent years it's been very rare for D.C to get two back to back snowy winters.Usually you'll have that one blockbuster year and then the following winters suck.2013-14 was a block buster winter that didn't give up until April.However the pattern hasn't really budged from last summer so we'll see.But the signs do point to a cooler pattern.
Quoting 311. washingtonian115:

Yes more trees are turning and leaves are falling off .In recent years it's been very rare for D.C to get two back to back snowy winters.Usually you'll have that one blockbuster year and then the following winters suck.2013-14 was a block buster winter that didn't give up until April.However the pattern hasn't really budged from last summer so we'll see.But the signs do point to a cooler pattern.


I don't know about up there, but this is the coolest summer here in a while. It rarely got into the nineties except for a couple of weeks here and there. More upper 70's with rain than any July /August I remember.
Quoting 158. KoritheMan:


Global warming isn't an "agenda", but I do agree with your main point. Ironically I feel that's one of the larger reasons the average person doesn't take AGW seriously.



Guess I'm not average. I do take it seriously, but also laugh because Metaphor!

Blackjack table. Dealer deals, cards dealt follow a pattern, and the pattern can be predicted based on whether there's a house staffer under the table slipping extra cards into the deck as the games are played. All the players at the table are arguing whether the person under the table actually exists, with everyone having perfectly (to them) valid arguments on why or why not the guy is there.

Nobody is going to believe each other one way or another until the guy under the table has to get up to relieve himself. And even then the "No Guy Under The Table!" crowd will certainly find a reason unrelated to pranking the deck as to why the guy might have been there.

It's going to take more than the brown sticky stuff hitting the fan to convince that crowd. It's going to take a Bullnado of Epic Proportions landing on the fan manufacturing plant to convince them.

Me? I'll be here on the farm watching the show. Fortunately popcorn is a pretty hardy variety of zea maiz. :)
Quoting 311. washingtonian115:

Yes more trees are turning and leaves are falling off .In recent years it's been very rare for D.C to get two back to back snowy winters.Usually you'll have that one blockbuster year and then the following winters suck.2013-14 was a block buster winter that didn't give up until April.However the pattern hasn't really budged from last summer so we'll see.But the signs do point to a cooler pattern.
Some people have already issued Preliminary Winter Outlook for the Mid-Atlantic. Mid-Atlantic Outlook:The Mid-Atlantic could even see a snowier winter than last winter and likely experience well-below average temperatures. This winter could rival some of the snowpocalyptic winters that occurred a few years back, which will likely end up making this a highly discussed topic throughout the winter. This will likely be a wetter-than-average winter for the Mid-Atlantic, and this region will likely feel the effects of low pressure systems bombing off the East Coast. This area will probably be impacted by several storms this season and may even feel the effects of a pre-season storm that may try to develop. We will see how this goes.
Quoting Climate175:
Squirrels are going nuts literally, and as I take summer walks I see more trees getting shades of yellow and reds and falling off. This winter we are going to be having some fun.


Yellows at this time of year are probably a short term dryness response. I'm starting to see them here in College Park also. No reds here though.
Quoting 305. Grothar:



Iselle


Julio




Grothar, thank you, it don't look like it's going to be bad, thank God. From what I'm reading that folks are saying they usually have a shield up and it shouldn't cause much damage.

sheri
Quoting 310. Stoopid1:

The last time two hurricanes existed simultaneously in the Central Pacific was 1993, with hurricanes Keoni and Fernanda.

1993 Pacific hurricane season

Genevieve is also set to be the first Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone to enter the Western Pacific since Hurricane John, which crossed the dateline on August 28, 1994. This is a pretty awesome day to track the Central Pacific, you don't see this too often!


That had to be something to track

Latest GFS..

319. 1344
Quoting 317. Grothar:



That had to be something to track




Dora 99 made it to the WPAC and it formed within the EPAC.
000
FXUS62 KTBW 061423
AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
1023 AM EDT WED AUG 6 2014

.FOR THE MORNING UPDATE...
SCATTERED EARLY MORNING CONVECTION OVER THE EASTERN GULF OF MEXICO
MOVED ONSHORE AROUND THE MOUTH OF TAMPA BAY WITH OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES PROPAGATING SLOWLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PINELLAS AND
SOUTHERN HILLSBOROUGH COUNTIES ALONG WITH CENTRAL MANATEE AND
CENTRAL SARASOTA COUNTIES. THESE BOUNDARIES WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR
ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AROUND TAMPA BAY LATE THIS
MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON. CONVECTION WILL GRADUALLY PUSH INLAND
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND INCREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE AS NUMEROUS
BOUNDARY COLLISIONS OCCUR. HAVE UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS
WITH THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY OVER THE INTERIOR AND INLAND PORTIONS OF
THE COASTAL COUNTIES FROM THE TAMPA AREA SOUTH.

12Z TBW SOUNDING INDICATES WARM...MOIST...UNSTABLE CONDITIONS WITH
CAPE AROUND 4000 AND 50T OF -5.7. WEAK ONSHORE SOUTHWEST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW OF LESS THAN 5 KNOTS ALONG WITH WARM MOIST ATMOSPHERE
WILL CREATE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.

HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO REFLECT HIGHER POPS.


This is very strange, thunderstorm coverage again in Central Florida is much lower than one would expect so far today with the parameters as they are. So far today coverage low and weak despite a PW of 2.0 inches, CAPE near 4000 and cool enough mid level temps. Yesterday was the same as well across Central Florida.

In fact I've seen a lot less impressive stats of the atmosphere lead to higher coverage. I don't really get it.
Quoting 315. georgevandenberghe:



Yellows at this time of year are probably a short term dryness response. I'm starting to see them here in College Park also. No reds here though.

Doug Hill said his mom used to use nature and it's signs to predict the DMV's most big snowstorms.
322. JRRP
Quoting hydrus:
That is a big one..Reminds me of the t wave that started Hurricane Allen.

1980 ?
Quoting 299. Grothar:
Sometimes I wish scientists would keep their opinions to themselves.

It reminds me of Lavas Flovus in 79 A.D. He said, "Beware the volcano" as the residents said, "What's a volcano?"



That's silly. A volcano is a middle school experiment where ketchup is pumped out of a cardboard model of a mountain.
324. 1344
Quoting 297. VAbeachhurricanes:

Can't see Iselle surviving until Hawaii, should be a non-issue for them






Perhaps, but models are in good agreement that it should come close.
Quoting 312. VAbeachhurricanes:



I don't know about up there, but this is the coolest summer here in a while. It rarely got into the nineties except for a couple of weeks here and there. More upper 70's with rain than any July /August I remember.
This has been a pretty average summer and the lack of 90's is a bonus!.We have not had any recorded days in the 100's.I have had temps at 98 and 99.But it hasn't touched 100 at my house yet this summer.The troughs have been impressive for so early and we've expected to see the low 80's to upper 70's once again this up coming week.

Climate175 it's all about waiting now.
I remember Hydrus also posting those winter maps and saying this does not look good and big storms are coming, last winter was quite an experience and a joyful one on the blog, hope it can be again this winter.
Quoting 297. VAbeachhurricanes:

Can't see Iselle surviving until Hawaii, should be a non-issue for them





Yep it should be a non issue for them dry air is choking iselle and would keep choking
Quoting 273. StormTrackerScott:



Waiting on the latest updates but it appears the MDR will go down as the driest in history for July. TA13 brought this up a couple of days ago.
Amazing we got anything at all out of that environment. To me this implies the strength of the Twaves and by extension the potential for them to survive into the WCar and WAtl if conditions in the MDR improve.
Quoting 315. georgevandenberghe:



Yellows at this time of year are probably a short term dryness response. I'm starting to see them here in College Park also. No reds here though.

I see some red on some of my leaves.
Quoting 322. JRRP:


1980 ?
Yep..A friend of mine was in the Tortuga,s had both his arms broken while Allen was moving through the Yucatan Channel. It was gusting to 90 mph, and he attempted to pull anchor.. I should mention he was only 14 and fearless.
long range GFS has a td in the eastern caribbean day 16
The life of Genevieve...

- At 09z on July 25, the NHC issued its first advisory on Tropical Storm Genevieve
- At 15z on July 26, Genevieve weakened to a tropical depression
- Early on July 27, Tropical Depression Genevieve entered the Central Pacific
- At 03z on July 27, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center declared Genevieve a remnant low
- At 21z on July 29, the CPHC re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Genevieve
- At 21z on July 31, the CPHC declared Genevieve a remnant low
- At 15z on August 2, the CPHC re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Genevieve
- At 21z on August 2, Tropical Depression Genevieve was upgraded to a tropical storm
- At 03z on August 3, Tropical Storm Genevieve was downgraded to a tropical depression
- At 21z on August 5, Tropical Depression Genevieve was upgraded to a tropical storm
- At 15z on August 6, Tropical Storm Genevieve was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane

An important fact to note--Genevieve is expected to cross 180W into the Northwest Pacific Ocean later today; when it does so, it will become the first cyclone to cross from the East Pacific to the West Pacific since Hurricane John in 1994
Quoting 323. rmbjoe1954:



That's silly. A volcano is a middle school experiment where ketchup is pumped out of a cardboard model of a mountain.


KETCHUP!!! No wonder I was thrown out of school. :)
Quoting 329. washingtonian115:

I see some red on some of my leaves.
Hey, DC115.... I see u r well into the next season or two .... lol ... enjoy while you can, girl.... after some super hot winters we had, it's cool to get a little chill here and there...
336. Siker
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
long range GFS has a td in the eastern caribbean day 16


Batten down the hatches!
Quoting 292. VAbeachhurricanes:



Thats not what that means at all. 99% confidence level means that there is a 99% or greater chance that the data is statistically significant, not that there is a 99% chance that said prediction would occur. If that were true it wouldn't be a prediction.


Yes, you are correct. It's a p-test to confirm that data was statistically significant. My apologies.
12z NAM at 84 hours moving a system through the Islands.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
The life of Genevieve...

- At 09z on July 25, the NHC issued its first advisory on Tropical Storm Genevieve
- At 15z on July 26, Genevieve weakened to a tropical depression
- Early on July 27, Tropical Depression Genevieve entered the Central Pacific
- At 03z on July 27, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center declared Genevieve a remnant low
- At 21z on July 29, the CPHC re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Genevieve
- At 21z on July 31, the CPHC declared Genevieve a remnant low
- At 15z on August 2, the CPHC re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Genevieve
- At 21z on August 2, Tropical Depression Genevieve was upgraded to a tropical storm
- At 03z on August 3, Tropical Storm Genevieve was downgraded to a tropical depression
- At 21z on August 5, Tropical Depression Genevieve was upgraded to a tropical storm
- At 15z on August 6, Tropical Storm Genevieve was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane

An important fact to note--Genevieve is expected to cross 180W into the Northwest Pacific Ocean later today; when it does so, it will become the first cyclone to cross from the East Pacific to the West Pacific since Hurricane John in 1994

If I'm not mistaken Genevieve started as TD 2 in the Atlantic then weakened to tropical wave that made its way into the E Pac and became the storm that it is today
Quoting 332. TropicalAnalystwx13:

The life of Genevieve...

- At 09z on July 25, the NHC issued its first advisory on Tropical Storm Genevieve
- At 15z on July 26, Genevieve weakened to a tropical depression
- Early on July 27, Tropical Depression Genevieve entered the Central Pacific
- At 03z on July 27, the Central Pacific Hurricane Center declared Genevieve a remnant low
- At 21z on July 29, the CPHC re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Genevieve
- At 21z on July 31, the CPHC declared Genevieve a remnant low
- At 15z on August 2, the CPHC re-initiated advisories on Tropical Depression Genevieve
- At 21z on August 2, Tropical Depression Genevieve was upgraded to a tropical storm
- At 03z on August 3, Tropical Storm Genevieve was downgraded to a tropical depression
- At 21z on August 5, Tropical Depression Genevieve was upgraded to a tropical storm
- At 15z on August 6, Tropical Storm Genevieve was upgraded to a Category 1 hurricane

An important fact to note--Genevieve is expected to cross 180W into the Northwest Pacific Ocean later today; when it does so, it will become the first cyclone to cross from the East Pacific to the West Pacific since Hurricane John in 1994


Dora in 99 and Jimena in 2003

Crossover Storms from Eastern Pacific to Western Pacific
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT WED AUG 06 2014

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION FOR NORTH AMERICA...CENTRAL
AMERICA...GULF OF MEXICO...CARIBBEAN SEA...NORTHERN SECTIONS OF
SOUTH AMERICA...AND ATLANTIC OCEAN TO THE AFRICAN COAST FROM THE
EQUATOR TO 32N. THE FOLLOWING INFORMATION IS BASED ON SATELLITE
IMAGERY...WEATHER OBSERVATIONS...RADAR...AND METEOROLOGICAL
ANALYSIS.

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1015 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM BERTHA IS TO THE NORTH OF THE
AREA...NEAR 39.0N 65.4W AT 06/0900 UTC. THIS POSITION ALSO IS
ABOUT 345 NM TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF HALIFAX IN NOVA
SCOTIA...AND ABOUT 710 NM TO THE SOUTHWEST OF CAPE RACE IN
NEWFOUNDLAND. BERTHA IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD...OR 55 DEGREES...
24 KNOTS. THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1007 MB. THE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS ARE 45 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 55
KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 38N TO
41N BETWEEN 61W AND 64W. PLEASE READ THE LATEST NHC PUBLIC
ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCPAT3/WTNT33 KNHC AND THE
FORECAST/ADVISORY UNDER AWIPS/WMO HEADERS MIATCMAT3/WTNT23 KNHC
FOR MORE DETAILS.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 19N27W 10N30W...MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...NO SIGNIFICANT DEEP
CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION IS APPARENT.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 49W/50W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED MODERATE TO STRONG FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 50W AND 58W. ISOLATED MODERATE FROM 10N TO 13N BETWEEN
40W AND 50W.

A CARIBBEAN SEA SURFACE TROUGH IS ALONG 63W/64W FROM 16N
SOUTHWARD...MOVING WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...BROKEN TO OVERCAST MULTILAYERED CLOUDS AND
ISOLATED MODERATE TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 10N TO 15N BETWEEN 60W
AND 68W.

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG
23N68W...CUTTING ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CORNER OF THE DOMINICAN
REPUBLIC...TO NORTHWESTERN VENEZUELA. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 20 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
TO LOCALLY STRONG FROM 15N TO 24N BETWEEN 64W AND 72W.
CONVECTIVE DEBRIS CLOUDS REMAIN ACROSS HAITI...AFTER THE EARLIER
PRECIPITATION ENDED.

A WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG 21N79W 15N81W
8N81W IN PANAMA. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...ISOLATED MODERATE
BETWEEN 80W AND 83W.

...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH...

THE MONSOON TROUGH PASSES THROUGH THE COASTAL SECTIONS OF
SENEGAL NEAR 14N17W TO 10N24W AND 8N35W. THE ITCZ CONTINUES FROM
8N35W TO 9N44W AND 8N47W. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 5N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND
40W...AND FROM 10N SOUTHWARD BETWEEN 40W AND 60W.

...DISCUSSION...

FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC OCEAN...ACROSS FLORIDA...INTO THE
EASTERN AND SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO...AND IN PARTS OF THE
NORTHWESTERN CORNER OF THE CARIBBEAN SEA...AND THE REST OF THE
GULF OF MEXICO...

A SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDS FROM A 1010 MB ATLANTIC OCEAN LOW
PRESSURE CENTER THAT IS NEAR 34N71W...THROUGH 32N73W...TO
28N77W...ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA...TO THE GULF OF MEXICO JUST OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST NEAR 26N82W. UPPER LEVEL
ANTICYCLONIC WIND FLOW IS MOVING ACROSS THIS AREA. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG IN THE ATLANTIC OCEAN WITHIN 60
NM ON EITHER SIDE OF 38N64W 35N68W 31N74W. ISOLATED MODERATE IN
THE ATLANTIC OCEAN FROM 26N TO 30N BETWEEN 73W AND 80W...AND OFF
THE SOUTHWESTERN FLORIDA COAST FROM 25N TO 26N WITHIN 30 NM ON
EITHER SIDE OF 82W.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
long range GFS has a td in the eastern caribbean day 16

Not only that set up is for it to end up in the W Carib
If this does happen and it hits those heat potentials in the area that could bomb out if this actually pans out
Quoting 252. weathermanwannabe:

SAL in the Central Atlantic is starting to wane/back off from the ITCZ as is normal this time of the year going into mid-late August as the subtropical ridge also moves into place across the Atlantic for the Cape Verde part of the season.  But it was so pervasive the past few months that SST's are marginal North of 10N in the Central Atlantic.  The point is that we might see some of the Cape Verde storms struggle in that region this year until they reach more favorable conditions further West closer to the Antilles.  We are only 35 days from the peak but the Central Atlantic has a bit of catching up to SST wise in the next 3 weeks in that part of the MDR:



SAL finally eroding and not rebuilding as strong
Quoting 334. BahaHurican:

Hey, DC115.... I see u r well into the next season or two .... lol ... enjoy while you can, girl.... after some super hot winters we had, it's cool to get a little chill here and there...
Hello Baha.It's August but the pattern is saying late September.But I can't complain really/I'm enjoying it and getting out there.
Well I'll be back to lurk a little later to see what's going on.
Quoting wunderkidcayman:

If I'm not mistaken Genevieve started as TD 2 in the Atlantic then weakened to tropical wave that made its way into the E Pac and became the storm that it is today

Yeah I think I might be mistaken
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Living in Raleigh and disliking summer days over 90 degrees, I must say I welcome our new Global Warming/Climate Change overlords if it means summers will be cool like this going forward :).
Quoting 342. wunderkidcayman:


Not only that set up is for it to end up in the W Carib
If this does happen and it hits those heat potentials in the area that could bomb out if this actually pans out
this season all the models show a ridge buidling in the northeast. unless the bermuda high somehow implodes and weakens, its going to be very hard to get anything to go out to sea. quite a different pattern compared to the last 5 years and give or take this is an average season, then maybe 2 CV hurricanes to track.. sounds interesting
Quoting Grothar:


KETCHUP!!! No wonder I was thrown out of school. :)


Ketchup, that might get a little messy. I've never tried that.

More commonly used items include baking soda and vinegar with a little red/orange food coloring.
I've just noticed that
We are at same amount of hurricanes as last year and we are just starting out in August last yeah it wasn't till September when we got out first

We beat last year in hurricane intensity infact Arthur is the strongest hurricane in 19months or somewhere there about

Quoting 274. allancalderini:

California is also in one of its worst droughts the opposite of what the map is showing.
Notice that the map is not portraying current conditions, it shows the general pattern of rainfall versus dryness worldwide during an El Niño. The fact that we are not currently in an El Niño is reflected in the fact that current rainfall and dryness patterns don't match the map.
I am wondering,IF this climate change is for real...IS it sort of changing florida's rainy season somewhat?...I cant believe my not getting good rain in many days now....that never happens in our rainy season....guess if this change is for real,we all will have to get used to new seasons..