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Climate change education in zoos

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:20 PM GMT on December 05, 2011

I'm in San Francisco this week for the annual Fall Meeting of the American Geophysical Union (AGU), the world's largest gathering of Earth Scientists. Over ten thousand scientists from all over the world, including most of the world's top climate scientists, are in town this week to exchange ideas to advance the cause of Earth Science. This year, there is much attention being given to communication of science to the public, and the first talk I attended today on the subject was given by Dr. Michael Mann of Penn State University. Dr. Mann has been at the center of much recent controversy over climate science, and has an op-ed in today's Wall Street Journal titled, "Climate Contrarians Ignore Overwhelming Evidence". His "hockey stick" graphs showing the unprecedented increase in global temperatures over the past 1,000 years has been the subject of heated attack, much of it orchestrated by the public relations wings of powerful industries whose profits are threatened by by possibility of regulatory action to reduce global warming. He has a book coming out in January titled, The Hockey Stick and the Climate Wars: Dispatches from the Front Lines. Dr. Mann reaffirmed his stance on human-caused climate change in his talk this morning, calling attention to a paper that appeared in Nature Geoscience last week, finding that most of the observed warming of Earth's climate in recent decades—at least 74 percent—is almost certainly due to human activity. Dr. Mann said that this study did not go far enough, and that more than 100% of the warming in the past 30 years was due to humans. Without humans, the climate would have cooled over the past 30 years.


Figure 1. An example of educational material on polar bears that has been developed by CliZEN for use at nine U.S. zoos.

Dr. Mann also introduced a new pilot program he is involved with to advance climate change education through U.S. zoos. The National Science Foundation-funded project is called CliZEN, The Climate Literacy Zoo Education Network. Zoos represent a unique way for people to connect to the natural world, and over 50 million people in the U.S. go to the zoo each year--double that, if one includes aquariums. Thus, zoos thus offer a unique opportunity to communicate how climate change threatens the natural world. People who go to zoos are approximately 50% more likely to be alarmed or concerned about climate change than the general population, Dr. Mann showed. The initial eduction effort has a polar theme, and is being brought to nine zoos: the Chicago Zoological Society of Brookfield, IL; Columbus Zoo & Aquarium, OH; Como Zoo & Conservatory, St. Paul, MN; Indianapolis Zoo, IN; Louisville Zoological Garden, KY; Oregon Zoo, Portland, OR; Pittsburgh Zoo & PPG Aquarium, PA; Roger Williams Park Zoo, Providence, RI; and the Toledo Zoological Gardens, OH. The organization Polar Bears International is helping develop the educational material.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Big fire, on top of the hill
A hopeless gesture, and last farewell




Climate Literacy Zoo Education Network

The overarching purpose of the Climate Literacy Zoo Education Network is to develop and evaluate a new approach to climate change education that connects zoo visitors to polar animals currently endangered by climate change, leveraging the associative and affective pathways known to dominate the decision-making of the general public. Utilizing a polar theme, the partnership brings together a strong multidisciplinary team that includes: the Chicago Zoological Society of Brookfield, IL, leading a geographically distributed consortium of nine partners: Columbus Zoo & Aquarium, OH; Como Zoo & Conservatory, St. Paul, MN; Indianapolis Zoo, IN; Louisville Zoological Garden, KY; Oregon Zoo, Portland, OR; Pittsburgh Zoo & PPG Aquarium, PA; Roger Williams Park Zoo, Providence, RI; Toledo Zoological Gardens, OH, and the organization Polar Bears International.


The partnership leadership includes the Learning Sciences Research Institute at the University of Illinois at Chicago, and the Earth System Science Center at Pennsylvania State University. The partnership is joined by experts in conservation psychology and an external advisory board. The primary stakeholders are the diverse 13 million annual visitors to the nine partner zoos. Additional stakeholders include zoo docents, interpreters and educators, as well as the partnership technical team in the fields of learning innovations, technological tools, research review and education practice.
Good stuff DRM.
10000 scientists and average Joe is only hearing the media anti-climate hype of the coal and oil industries. The reason is that the media is owned by big polluters through money invested by big banks and investment clearing houses. To change the system, change how you manage your money. In other words, get it out of the big banks and investment institutions. That includes your retirement funds.
Thanks Jeff...I think
Quoting wxmod:
10000 scientists and average Joe is only hearing the media anti-climate hype of the coal and oil industries. The reason is that the media is owned by big polluters through money invested by big banks and investment clearing houses. To change the system, change how you manage your money. In other words, get it out of the big banks and investment institutions. That includes your retirement funds.



But wait. Last time I checked, Fox News is number 1 among all viewers in the country. And I don't think the American people view themselves as misinformed, inferior, or stupid either.

Hey, number 1 is number 1. I don't think Fox is accepting handouts from Big Oil. LMAO.

BUT, you can dig and see what you can find though... I won't stop you. I promise.

Hey, number 1 is number 1. See for yourself:

United States cable news

to #7 People pick South Park over NOVA. That doesn't mean NOVA is wrong, or South Park is real. Being Popular, doesn't make you accurate.
Quoting grandmariner:



But wait. Last time I checked, Fox News is number 1 among all viewers in the country. And I don't think the American people view themselves as misinformed, inferior, or stupid either.

Hey, number 1 is number 1. I don't think Fox is accepting handouts from Big Oil. LMAO.

BUT, you can dig and see what you can find though... I won't stop you. I promise.

Hey, number 1 is number 1. See for yourself:

United States cable news



Neither wxmod nor anyone else in this entry mentioned Fox News.


I think the Climate Literacy Zoo Education Network is a great idea!
Quoting biff4ugo:
to #7 People pick South Park over NOVA. That doesn't mean NOVA is wrong, or South Park is real. Being Popular, doesn't make you accurate.

Exactly. Just because certain climatologists are predicting rapid warming is caused by man, doesn't mean they are accurate either. I smell a double standard.

Thanks for making my point.
I do not believe that any culture other than hunter-gatherer can achieve sustainibility, and they can only do so by high infant mortality. People reproduce without regard to resources.

In the 1940's we were served milk with school lunches in glass tumblers, delivered to the school in quart glass bottles. The energy required to wash and sterilize and return the bottles to the bottling plant exceeded in terms of petroleum the energy equivalent of plastic containers. Also, typhoid could be spread by reuse of glass but not by virgin PE. So those throwaway plastic cups became common -

R.E.Olds, Henry Ford and others envisioned a low-impact motorized vehicle to go from outlying farms and ranches into town to buy supplies. This morphed into multilane freeways choked with luxury and performance status symbols which support, along with a hugh and difuse infastructure, a large share of our national economy. The auto industry and its military spinoffs also enabled the waging of war on nations far removed from our borders. Sustainabe? When pigs fly.

And things keep getting worse. I believe that the inertia of the collective of humanity will force a solution: mass dieoff and near extinction of humanity, followed by recovery in a world that has no exploitable natural resources, thus beginning a new and unending "primitive" phase of sustainable human existance.
Really,,..Henry?

Didnt we see dis same post in Ricky Roods entry? ...say, Like #68 ?

Yup, LoL


Bunker up?
Neat sat pic of 90L..
Number 12:

Umm....I think it might be a good idea to go back and re-read some of the posts in there. I think you might have me confused with someone else.
HardTimesHenry and Grandmariner are just a couple of sockpuppets. At least a dozen have been created over the last few days to harass people like LowerCal and OregonBirdofPrey.
Quoting Patrap:
Really,,..Henry?

Didnt we see dis same post in Ricky Roods entry? ...say, Like #68 ?

Yup, LoL


Bunker up?


They sure seem like bunkerbabies to me!
Quoting biff4ugo:
to #7 People pick South Park over NOVA. That doesn't mean NOVA is wrong, or South Park is real. Being Popular, doesn't make you accurate.


I just hate that I can only "+" this once
Quoting HardTimesHenry:

Exactly. Just because certain climatologists are predicting rapid warming is caused by man, doesn't mean they are accurate either. I smell a double standard.

Thanks for making my point.


"Thanks for making my point."

You were making a point? Enlighten us, if you will, as to what point you were trying to make. Inquiring minds want to know.
ASCAT passed directly over 01S:
Quoting petewxwatcher:
HardTimesHenry and Grandmariner are just a couple of sockpuppets. At least a dozen have been created over the last few days to harass people like LowerCal and OregonBirdofPrey.


round the same meaning as a troll?
Quoting SPLbeater:


round the same meaning as a troll?


Worse. Some trolls actually show some humor.
Still in the teens in TX panhandle at this hour
Secondary surge of cold air approaching Houston. Temps will be falling into 40s rest of today and on down till tomm morning
It seems that 01S had an eyewall going for awhile, lost it recently looking for comeback, Link to Microwave imagery loop from 0:00 UTC to present
Not sure what the hell is going on, but some arctic air has plunged into southern NM and Panhandle of TX, models were showing this last week and it's verifying.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


Worse. Some trolls actually show some humor.


well we can fix that problem. just need to get Jeff's attention to ban them idiots!
Quoting grandmariner:



But wait. Last time I checked, Fox News is number 1 among all viewers in the country. And I don't think the American people view themselves as misinformed, inferior, or stupid either.

Hey, number 1 is number 1. I don't think Fox is accepting handouts from Big Oil. LMAO.

BUT, you can dig and see what you can find though... I won't stop you. I promise.

Hey, number 1 is number 1. See for yourself:

United States cable news

Depends on who you ask.. (Poll Position) %u2014 When asked what is the best TV news network, Americans responded along partisan lines, with 62% of Republicans picking Fox News, while 72% of Democrats chose CNN and MSNBC.

In a national Poll Position telephone survey, Fox News came out on top. Among all the 1,180 surveyed, 36% said Fox News was best, with 28% saying CNN and 17% MSNBC.

Among independents, 36% chose Fox News, 31% CNN, 9% MSNBC, and 24% were undecided.

Republicans: 62% Fox News, 13% CNN, 6% MSNBC, 19% undecided.

Democrats: 10% Fox News, 41% CNN, 31% MSNBC, 18% undecided.

Poll Position%u2019s scientific telephone survey of 1,180 adults nationwide was conducted September 18, 2011 and has a margin of error of 3%.The Big Three:[15]
CNBC Bloomberg TV Fox Business Network
Headquarters Englewood Cliffs, N.J. New York City New York City
Number of Households in 2008 97 million 47 million 44 million
Profits in 2008 $350 million $15.6 million not reported*
Management Mark Hoffman (President) Michael Clancy (Executive Editor) Roger Ailes (CEO)

Fox Business Network is operated as a division of the Fox Entertainment Group %u2013 which had $1.85 billion in net income in 2004. No information reported for the profits or losses which the Fox Business Network division represents.

[edit] Ratings

Nielson doesn't track Fox Business ratings[16], but peaked at 81,000 viewers.[15][dubious %u2013 discuss] Bloomberg also doesn't subscribe to Nielson and ratings are assumed to be very small.[17]. Currently, CNBC usually has between 200,000-400,000 viewers during the day.[18] In 2000, CNBC had higher ratings then CNN during market hours.[19]Wiki.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ALENGA (01-20112012)
22:30 PM RET December 5 2011
==============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Alenga (982 hPa) located at 13.1S 86.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 80 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots.

Storm Force Winds
====================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.0S 86.8E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 14.6S 88.3E - 70 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 16.8S 93.0E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 19.2S 97.7E - 40 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Since 1530z, Alenga shows an irregular eye but deep convective activity remains asymmetric with the more active one mainly located in the northern semi-circle. 1522z ASCAT swath seems to be bad resolved. Current motion is now a southwestward track over the northwestern edge of subtropical ridge. As a high to mid level trough is approaching to the south between 80E and 90E (CF water vapor imagery) and an equatorial ridge should build to the northeast of the system, Alenga is forecast to move little within the next 24 hours before accelerating towards the southeast. All numerical weather prediction models agree with this although there is some substantial spread in the speed forecast. Current forecast is based on a consensus of all available numerical weather prediction models. On this forecast, the system should pass east of 90E Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. The shear continues to weaken. Given the favorable sea surface temperatures, steady intensification at least a a climatological rate is forecast and Alenga could become a tropical cyclone tomorrow. Thursday, an increase of vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperature should produce significant weakening of the system. Extratropical transition is now expected at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Dvorak Intensity has been stable, couldnt disagree with estimates as of now lol.

181500UTC

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 990.4mb/ 57.0kt


Raw T# 3.4
Adj T# 3.4
Final T# 3.4

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
Center Temp: -70.8C Cloud Region Temp: -67.2C

Quoting grandmariner:



But wait. Last time I checked, Fox News is number 1 among all viewers in the country. And I don't think the American people view themselves as misinformed, inferior, or stupid either.

Hey, number 1 is number 1. I don't think Fox is accepting handouts from Big Oil. LMAO.

BUT, you can dig and see what you can find though... I won't stop you. I promise.

Hey, number 1 is number 1. See for yourself:

United States cable news


Most popular doesn't mean a whole lot. In fact, a full seven professional studies have found that regular viewers of Fox "News" are among the most misinformed--particularly, for purposes of this conversation, where climate science is concerned. From the latest study, Climate on Cable: The Nature and Impact of Global Warming Coverage on Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC:

"Evidence from a content analysis of climate change coverage on Fox News, CNN, and MSNBC during 2007 and 2008 demonstrates that Fox takes a more dismissive tone toward climate change than CNN and MSNBC. Fox also interviews a greater ratio of climate change doubters to believers. An analysis of 2008 survey data from a nationally representative sample of U.S. adults finds a negative
association between Fox News viewership and acceptance of global warming, even after controlling for numerous potential confounding factors. Conversely, viewing
CNN and MSNBC is associated with greater acceptance of global warming. Further analyses reveal that the relationship between cable news viewership (both Fox and CNN/MSNBC) and global warming acceptance is stronger among Republicans than among Democrats. That is, the views of Republicans are strongly linked with the news outlet they watch, regardless of how well that outlet aligns with their political predispositions. In contrast, Democrats don’t vary much in their beliefs as a function of cable news use. This asymmetry suggests that some Republicans, who as a group tend to be predisposed toward global warming skepticism, are less skeptical when exposed to information on the reality and urgency of climate change."


Get that last part? If exposed to actual science instead of the skewed blather on Fox, even "skeptics" become less skeptical. The truth shall set you free...
did the blog lose activity again...
i've got about half the folks posting today on ignore.. well, at least i'm getting better at using the gifts of Wunderblog.. still a bummer from a spectator's perspective :(
Quoting Minnemike:
i've got about half the folks posting today on ignore.. well, at least i'm getting better at using the gifts of Wunderblog.. still a bummer from a spectator's perspective :(

lol, sometimes thats hat it comes to xD. seems another troll problem has arose, almost to the same extent as the one in early hurricane season when i joined.
Anyone want to discuss the upcoming possible snow event for the Mid-Atlantic on Thursday?
SNOW FOR MID-ATLANTIC? if your talking about something that combines the words SNOW and NC, please continue :D
Quoting SPLbeater:
SNOW FOR MID-ATLANTIC? if your talking about something that combines the words SNOW and NC, please continue :D


IF you are in the mountains, maybe. More like a MD/VA event.
Re the troll problem, a few years back I read a physiology study that found that the pleasure centers (in the brain) of people who go out in public to tell conscious lies light up (on brain monitors) when they do so.

That explains rather a lot.

Presumably such people also gain pleasure and a sense of social reinforcement from listening to others repeat the same lies, which would seem to explain the dedicated fan base of Fox News.
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALENGA) WARNING NR 003
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01S (ALENGA) WARNING NR 003
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
051800Z --- NEAR 12.4S 87.2E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 03 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 060 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
105 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 12.4S 87.2E
Just to add, we can see this latter syndrome manifesting in Limbaugh's claim to arm his listeners with the truth (i.e., convenient lies).

There's about 30% of the population that seems prone to this, which makes them a serious problem but one that is surmountable.

Note the poll results a couple of days ago finding that the cognitive dissonance (between the lies and the evidence) of the significant chunk of Republicans who aren't part of that 30% (a minority in the party, but still necessary to win elections) is starting to manifest itself in changing views on climate.

In the end, our current national experience with right-wing extremism (not just regarding climate) may turn out to have some positive effects.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


IF you are in the mountains, maybe. More like a MD/VA event.


awwwww...:( im in Lee County
Getting cold outside now, was warmer this morning, secondary surge has arrived, and only going to fall. 47 now and falling
Massive low and mid level cloud deck overtaking TX now, cold rest of week, were not getting out now
Enjoy those muggy 70s Patrap, wherever you are...
Quoting spbloom:
Re the troll problem, a few years back I read a physiology study that found that the pleasure centers (in the brain) of people who go out in public to tell conscious lies light up (on brain monitors) when they do so.

That explains rather a lot.

Presumably such people also gain pleasure and a sense of social reinforcement from listening to others repeat the same lies, which would seem to explain the dedicated fan base of Fox News.
A very beautiful and axiomatic post..Thank you very much for it...PLEASE post more often.


Snow Map for Thursday. I made it myself. Comments?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Snow Map for Thursday. I made it myself. Comments?
Not bad for a geek...:)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Snow Map for Thursday. I made it myself. Comments?


Based on what data?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Snow Map for Thursday. I made it myself. Comments?


good job.
Quoting goosegirl1:


Based on what data?


Computer models including the GFS, NAM, CMC, and UKMET.
Weakening observed with the Dvorak Intensity..this is lame!

052030UTC

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 991.5mb/ 55.0kt

Raw T# 3.0
Adj T# 3.0
FInal T# 3.3
West of Nashville: Temps fell 5 deg over the last hour, heading for the 30's fast this afternoon. With all the rain I hope we don't have ice in the am.. I understand that Nashville doesn't having any salt trucks...
Quoting JNCali:
West of Nashville: Temps fell 5 deg over the last hour, heading for the 30's fast this afternoon. With all the rain I hope we don't have ice in the am.. I understand that Nashville doesn't having any salt trucks...

300 or so miles east of Nashville, we have a temp of 59 and overcast, with rain on the way. Thanks to wxgeekva, my denial of the arrival of winter is in serious jeopardy, and here you go helping out :) A high of 27 is predicted for Saturday, evidently with some snow preceeding it.
Quoting JNCali:
West of Nashville: Temps fell 5 deg over the last hour, heading for the 30's fast this afternoon. With all the rain I hope we don't have ice in the am.. I understand that Nashville doesn't having any salt trucks...
It is cold and wet..Raining one half inch an hour here on the plateau near Rock Island State Park. Some of us will get snow before this system moves out completely..
Quoting RitaEvac:
Massive low and mid level cloud deck overtaking TX now, cold rest of week, were not getting out now


so is this low going to bring some moisture to SE Texas...... maybe in the form of Freezing Rain/SNOW! lol
Quoting JNCali:
West of Nashville: Temps fell 5 deg over the last hour, heading for the 30's fast this afternoon. With all the rain I hope we don't have ice in the am.. I understand that Nashville doesn't having any salt trucks...
That is not good...They will need them this winter. Precip map for the next 7 days..
Quoting petewxwatcher:
HardTimesHenry and Grandmariner are just a couple of sockpuppets. At least a dozen have been created over the last few days to harass people like LowerCal and OregonBirdofPrey.
Quoting SPLbeater:
round the same meaning as a troll?
Sockpuppet (Internet) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia
A sockpuppet is an online identity used for purposes of deception. The term—a reference to the manipulation of a simple hand puppet made from a sock—originally referred to a false identity assumed by a member of an internet community who spoke to, or about himself while pretending to be another person.[1] The term now includes other uses of misleading online identities, such as those created to praise, defend or support a third party or organization.[2] A significant difference between the use of a pseudonym[3] and the creation of a sockpuppet is that the sockpuppet poses as an independent third-party unaffiliated with the puppeteer.
....
Disinformation sock puppets re-emergence is predictable. Not as many users, including lurkers, to knock them out of circulation with -'s. Times are hard, folks need to make a living somehow. Hope big energy pays well. Rather than a bunch of pleasure centers lighting up probably as boring as working a call center.
"10,000 Scientists. in San Francisco," Sounds a bit like the grand old Duke of York who marched them up to the top of the hill, then marched them down again.
Added to this there is a big scientific pow wow in Durban I am led to believe as I am led to believe many things! This is about climate and changes among other things.
Here's an idea,that you can shoot to bits but we all know what is the state of things at the moment, which we are led to believe, so if we "bookmark," today, more or less and see what will have changed in a year from now, which will have a positive affect on atmospheric pollution?
My guess is very little, the CO2 graphs will be a bit higher and the cries for change a bit louder. A billion+ vehicles will still be on the roads.
So sad really that we are going to have to burn fuel to cool tanks for arctic creatures to be preserved alive in!
Quoting PlazaRed:
"10,000 Scientists. in San Francisco," Sounds a bit like the grand old Duke of York who marched them up to the top of the hill, then marched them down again.
Added to this there is a big scientific pow wow in Durban I am led to believe as I am led to believe many things! This is about climate and changes among other things.
Here's an idea,that you can shoot to bits but we all know what is the state of things at the moment, which we are led to believe, so if we "bookmark," today, more or less and see what will have changed in a year from now, which will have a positive affect on atmospheric pollution?
My guess is very little, the CO2 graphs will be a bit higher and the cries for change a bit louder. A billion+ vehicles will still be on the roads.
So sad really that we are going to have to burn fuel to cool tanks for arctic creatures to be preserved alive in!


That is a painful irony- burn coal to provide power to air condition the display and cool the tank to warm the climate even more...
Quoting goosegirl1:


That is a painful irony- burn coal to provide power to air condition the display and cool the tank to warm the climate even more...


Because like life of the universe, life or the objects of space are meant to go extinct and die. Nothing lasts forever, and nothing will show that we existed, like star dust...this is the true irony
61. RitaEvac


...then explain Fruitcakes to me?
Quoting Patrap:
61. RitaEvac


...then explain Fruitcakes to me?


Fruit grows and dies as well. But a species will come by and consume the fruit or in this case create a fruitcake....once it is consumed and digested it is part of the species that has consumed it, and the species will still die eventually and never knowing the fruitcake existed in the first place
Quoting hydrus:
A very beautiful and axiomatic post..Thank you very much for it...PLEASE post more often.


And thank you for the compliment, hydrus. I will, as much as I can.
...Fruitcakes pre-date the Big-Bang, so splain dat?
Quoting Patrap:
...Fruitcakes pre-date the Big-Bang, so splain dat?


Patrick! stay on topic
Wiki wisdom:

"The all-time Great Fruitcake Toss record is 1,420 feet, set in January 2007 by a group of eight Boeing engineers who built the "Omega 380," a mock artillery piece fueled by compressed air pumped by an exercise bike.[5]"
"If a fruitcake contains alcohol, it could remain edible for many years. For example, a fruitcake baked in 1878 is kept as an heirloom by a family in Tecumseh, Michigan.[6] In 2003 it was sampled by Jay Leno on the Tonight Show.[7]"
Quoting RitaEvac:


Because like life of the universe, life or the objects of space are meant to go extinct and die. Nothing lasts forever, and nothing will show that we existed, like star dust...this is the true irony

There are a few non retrievable pieces of space probes that will be heading away from us for a long time to come and we have sent out an ever increasing number of radio signals from millions of transmissions that will maybe tell a story to some listener, the signals will increase in number, then decrease with no doubt their own story as to why they are in decline.
The radio messages began about a 100 years ago and will continue to be broadcast for some time yet. Any life that can decipher them will then know how long we had the technology to transmit and probably why we stopped.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Because like life of the universe, life or the objects of space are meant to go extinct and die. Nothing lasts forever, and nothing will show that we existed, like star dust...this is the true irony


How many self aware, rational thinking beings have helped to bring about their own demise? ... I mean besides us?
Quoting bappit:
"If a fruitcake contains alcohol, it could remain edible for many years. For example, a fruitcake baked in 1878 is kept as an heirloom by a family in Tecumseh, Michigan.[6] In 2003 it was sampled by Jay Leno on the Tonight Show.[7]"


fruitcake should be soaked in bourbon for at least a week prior to consumption...
Quoting RitaEvac:


Because like life of the universe, life or the objects of space are meant to go extinct and die. Nothing lasts forever, and nothing will show that we existed, like star dust...this is the true irony
Great post..However, I believe where there is death, there is birth and rebirth..There is so much here on Earth we humans still do not understand, never mind whats happening thousands or millions light years away, or what has occurred in the Universe millions or billions of years ago.
Quoting presslord:


fruitcake should be soaked in bourbon for at least a week prior to consumption...
And this very thing is achieved on a regular basis here in the great state of Tennessee..:)
98S...i dont beleive it will make it in the long run.
Quoting hydrus:
Great post..However, I believe where there is death, there is birth and rebirth..There is so much here on Earth we humans still do not understand, never mind whats happening thousands or millions light years away, or what has occurred millions or billions of years ago.


Same way stars die, new ones are born
If every AGW blog article results in this type discussion I will be much less agitated when Dr. Jeff posts them. Re 72: the cycle of life, death and rebirth can be seen from the smallest or particles to the largest of galaxies. and IMHO they all point to the single Truth..
Upper low moving into NM will spin up a low pressure coming outta of MX and along offshore of the TX coast, more precip to form later
Quoting hydrus:
And this very thing is achieved on a regular basis here in the great state of Tennessee..:)
so far.. I would say that they just skip the fruit cake altogether here in TN :U
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
Disinformation sock puppets re-emergence is predictable. Not as many users, including lurkers, to knock them out of circulation with -'s. Times are hard, folks need to make a living somehow. Hope big energy pays well. Rather than a bunch of pleasure centers lighting up probably as boring as working a call center.


The ones here are probably all volunteers, most of them anyway. The paid ones tend to sound a bit less deranged, but even then you get folks like atmoaggie (a former frequent commenter here), who went into A+M convinced AGW was a fraud and came out with the same view, no doubt having spent quite a bit of time sitting in the back of the classroom sniggering about those pointy-headed profs and their crazy science.

Anyway, the direct paid component is largely composed of the think-tank network (e.g. CEI and Heartland), NGOs like the Koch front Americans for Prosperity and a few scientist shills like Willie Soon (most not even qualified to comment on climate science). They feed talking points to the Murdoch empire, Limbaugh, wingnut bloggers, etc., and in turn there's no shortage of willing saps eager to repeat that garbage anywhere they can.

I'm quite sure there are a few paid blog commenters in the mix, but it wouldn't take many of those to keep things jollied along.

The thing to remember about most wingnut blog commenters here and around the blogosphere is that deep down they're scared poopless about this stuff. They really try to not think about the details, but the vehemence of their denial is evidence that they've gotten the message.

But people have a great capacity for fantasy, and they imagine that if they wish hard enough the whole thing will just have been a bad dream.

(Speaking of scared poopless, look out for my following request to Jeff.)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Upper low moving into NM will spin up a low pressure coming outta of MX and along offshore of the TX coast, more precip to form later
Where you guys at with rain so far??
Quoting RitaEvac:


Same way stars die, new ones are born
If humans end up splitting from our beloved solar system, we may leave behind clues or signs that our species existed for a very long time to come. Providing we dont get wiped out by out by some unseen catastrophe.
im tired
Quoting JNCali:
Where you guys at with rain so far??


Still 2 feet below normal, resorvoirs still drying up
Quoting RitaEvac:
Upper low moving into NM will spin up a low pressure coming outta of MX and along offshore of the TX coast, more precip to form later


link?
Quoting hydrus:
If humans end up splitting from our beloved solar system, we may leave behind clues or signs that our species existed for a very long time to come. Providing we dont get wiped out by out by some unseen catastrophe.


The sun is going to bulge out and consume earth at some point, it will be gone, no trace left
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


link?


no link, can see it playing out before my eyes from satellite, and few years of watching weather, classic setup
Quoting JNCali:
so far.. I would say that they just skip the fruit cake altogether here in TN :U
This is true.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Still 2 feet below normal, resorvoirs still drying up
Friends in McKinny are just finishing putting piers on their foundation down to the bedrock, to prevent it from cracking.. I can't imagine.. praying you guys get some long overdue relief soon!
Quoting RitaEvac:


The sun is going to bulge out and consume earth at some point, it will be gone, no trace left
I meant that when we left the solar system, we would leave clues in other solar systems....But we definitely have to leave before Sun eats us..:)
Well, these Arctic outbreaks (if that's really what this is, since it can get unseasonably cold in winter without them) have been happening for a long time, and certainly no single one of them is pinnable to AGW (extreme ones could be, but that's a different discussion), but the much greater frequency of them in the last few years is getting a close look from climate scientists (Jeff must have blogged on this). The scientific jury's still out on a possible connection, but if it happens again this winter the old military aphorism comes to mind: Once is happenstance, twice is coincidence, three times is enemy action.

Two related things to bear in mind as you shiver in one:

If it's cold down here from an Arctic outbreak, it's warm up there, which noting e.g. the recent behavior of the permafrost is Double Plus Ungood.

Average temperatures are unaffected, which is to say the planet will keep right on warming however much it may not feel like it at the moment.
Quoting hydrus:
I meant that when we left the solar system, we would leave clues in other solar systems....But we definitely have to leave before Sun eats us..:)


All else equal, the planet should remain habitable for the likes of us for another half-billion years or so, which is to say you can safely put off worrying about this until sometime next week. :)
Quoting RitaEvac:


no link, can see it playing out before my eyes from satellite, and few years of watching weather, classic setup


Will this bring any rain onshore? I am kind of curious as to if this will turn into something a little more wintery. That is if the upper atmosphere is indeed cold enough.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Will this bring any rain onshore? I am kind of curious as to if this will turn into something a little more wintery. That is if the upper atmosphere is indeed cold enough.


closer to coast, nothing wintry
Quoting JNCali:
Friends in McKinny are just finishing putting piers on their foundation down to the bedrock, to prevent it from cracking.. I can't imagine.. praying you guys get some long overdue relief soon!


That makes sense since this year may not be the worst of it in the short-term, although there will be rainy years again. That said, the long-term drying of the whole region (including a huge chunk of northern Mexico, which we often tend to forget about) is inevitable within this century, and more after that.

GHGs go up, the tropics continue to warm, hotter tropical air expands upward (tropopause rises) and out (the tropics expand poleward, compressing the entire atmospheric circulation toward both poles, and, particularly relevant to the TX-area drought, the dry descending branch of the northern Hadley cell, which moves north, as does the storm track). And so it dries.

But it'll be wetter somewhere else, if that's a consolation.

Although, come to think of it, just now the East Africans probably don't feel consoled in the slightest that the shift in the Walker Circulation driven by the warming West Pacific has moved their major rainy season into the Indian Ocean. Most inconvenient, that, as their minor rainy season (they have two, or at least they used to) tends to fail in La Nina years.
Quoting TheThinker:
Obama said to buy and electric car but that power comes from COAL and since he hates coal why didn't he think that through?


Obama thought it through (OK, people long before him thought it through). You, on the other hand, have not. Go figure.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Upper low moving into NM will spin up a low pressure coming outta of MX and along offshore of the TX coast, more precip to form later

That low moveing into NM I just had the thrill of experianceing, this morning a few flakes of snow fell down upon the city floor (Tucson) which never happens, the mountains are very white with snow and temps havnt got above 50 in a couple days (Very Rare) High temp yesterday and today of 45-47 and tommorow 52 with a low of 27. This thing is a beast of a storm I have a feeling bad things are gonna come from it in the NE and relief from it in SE. JMO
Thanks so much for the post, Jeff. Mike's perseverance in the face of all of that garbage is an example for us all.

Hopefully you'll be able to give us other posts on the new science reported at the conference.

I have a specific question that's come up in the last couple of days after I saw the permafrost expert elicitation paper in Nature and a second-hand report (the comments clarify) on Mark Pagani's unpublished research (referring to a talk he gave last month), and there are people at the conference (probably including Pagani, but if he's not there plenty of others) who could answer it.

There is (as you know) much concern about the East Siberian area carbon deposits, not just the clathrates but the yedoma, undersea permafrost and river sediments -- all in all a huge complex that could only exist as a result of some possibly unique geological circumstances. (As you will know, based on preliminary assessments of the amount of carbon present and its potential for release, the NSF and science agencies from several other countries are funding a large multi-year research expedition to the East Siberian shelf area, and perhaps some results from this will be reported at the conference.)

But now the picture painted by all of this makes me wonder if the East Siberian deposits really are quite unique.

Pagani finds that the best fit for the carbon trigger for the PETM and the Eocene hyperthermals is Antarctic permafrost (likely forced by Milankovitch cycles). That makes a lot of sense, not so much because of the isotope record match but because it's the only hypothesis I've heard of that can explain the declining intensity of the hyperthermals. Presumably clathrates were needed to provide much of the heavy lifting, so my question is:

How likely is it that that there have been extensive shallow clathrate and other carbon deposits on the Antarctic continental shelves a) similar to what we see off Siberia today, and b) playing a major rule in the hyperthermals?

If it's at all likely, the past may have just become a much better guide to the future than I had thought.

I would appreciate it greatly if you could get an answer to this, although I realize it may be a fuzzy answer due to much of the potential evidence having been erased by the ice sheet.

Thanks again for all your efforts here and elsewhere.
Quoting TheThinker:
Obama said to buy and electric car but that power comes from COAL and since he hates coal why didn't he think that through?
Electric cars do not pollute the air. They use little if any gas. The electric it takes to charge them is just a small amount. The Electric Car is big oils worst enemy.,Especially since most countries will sell cheaper and more reliable models in the not so distant future.
Quite an amazing turnaround in parts of Alaska. Just a few weeks ago, there were record low temperatures of deeper than -40; yesterday some of the same stations that dipped that low obliterated record high readings. For instance, North Pole, AK, which set a record low for the date of -49.F on 11/17, reached a record high yesterday of 49.F, completely smashing the previous record of 27.F. That's a swing of 98 degrees over a two-week period. Meanwhile, Fairbanks International, which cooled to -41.F on 11/17, warmed to 47.F yesterday, breaking the old record by 15.F for a two-week swing of 88.F.

More here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/
-1 tonight. Ouch
Quoting spbloom:


All else equal, the planet should remain habitable for the likes of us for another half-billion years or so, which is to say you can safely put off worrying about this until sometime next week. :)
This is true. But what if next week a 7 mile wide, 14,560 million tonne asteroid moving at 59,000 mph strikes the Pacific, which has an average depth of over 12,000 feet, slams through ocean and crust turning the impacted mantle into something like melted butter in just a split second, creating 100 mile high tidal waves, then all that stuff that was blasted into ballistic orbit will rain back to earth, incinerating the surface and crust of every land mass, massive earthquakes ,huge volcanic eruptions and most of all, causing me to miss a few of my favorite T.V. programs.....which aint right.
Quoting TheThinker:
Obama said to buy and electric car but that power comes from COAL and since he hates coal why didn't he think that through?


like that
Total Lunar Eclipse predicted for the 10th of this month....cool!!



Voyager 1 Encounters Stagnation Region

NASA's Voyager 1 spacecraft has entered a new region between our solar system and interstellar space, which scientists are calling the stagnation region.
In the stagnation region, the wind of charged particles streaming out from our sun has slowed and turned inward for the first time, our solar system's magnetic field has piled up and higher-energy particles from inside our solar system appear to be leaking out into interstellar space.
This image shows that the inner edge of the stagnation region is located about 113 astronomical units (10.5 billion miles or 16.9 billion kilometers) from the sun.
Voyager 1 is currently about 119 astronomical units (11 billion miles or 17.8 billion kilometers) from the sun. The distance to the outer edge is unknown.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
FORTE TEMPETE TROPICALE ALENGA (01-20112012)
4:30 AM RET December 6 2011
==============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Severe Tropical Storm Alenga (989 hPa) located at 12.8S 86.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 50 with gusts of 70 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 5 knots.

Storm Force Winds
====================
20 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center extending up to 80 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/3.5/S0.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.7S 87.5E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
24 HRS: 14.5S 88.8E - 65 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 17.0S 93.7E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.1S 98.9E - 35 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

Based on METEOSAT7 infrared imagery low level circulation center monitored at 1800z was too south located. Based on curved band pattern, intensity at 1800z has consequently been corrected at T=CI=3.5 and winds extension has been recalibrated thanks to 1522z ASCAT swath.

In relationship with a mid-level trough transiting in its south Alenga is forecast to progressively accelerate towards the southeast. On this southeastward track, environment remains favorable for further intensification within the next 24 hours. On an after 1200z (Wednesday), system begins to undergoing moderate west northwesterly vertical wind shear and intensity is expected to regularly decrease. On this forecast, the system should pass east of 90E Tuesday night or Wednesday morning. On Thursday, an increase in vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperature should produce significant weakening of the system. Extratropical transition is now expected at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Mauritius Meteorological Services on TC ALENGA will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
dernit, im wont see it
ya.. very early in the morning. 4-5 am. =P
Quoting Neapolitan:
Quite an amazing turnaround in parts of Alaska. Just a few weeks ago, there were record low temperatures of deeper than -40; yesterday some of the same stations that dipped that low obliterated record high readings. For instance, North Pole, AK, which set a record low for the date of -49.F on 11/17, reached a record high yesterday of 49.F, completely smashing the previous record of 27.F. That's a swing of 98 degrees over a two-week period. Meanwhile, Fairbanks International, which cooled to -41.F on 11/17, warmed to 47.F yesterday, breaking the old record by 15.F for a two-week swing of 88.F.

More here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/


Interesting indeed. Recalling this recent study showing a recent uptick in daily extremes, I wonder if slightly longer periods of time have been examined? And could it be related to the pressure height changes Stu Ostro has been documenting?
TAWX, I just saw your comment regarding my report on Fernanda. I did use my own peak, although I suppose I could have upped her to 60 kt. Who knows, maybe I will.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
ya.. very early in the morning. 4-5 am. =P
well dat aint de problem. de problem is that where i live, we wont see it. it wont be dark
Quoting KoritheMan:
TAWX, I just saw your comment regarding my report on Fernanda. I did use my own peak, although I suppose I could have upped her to 60 kt. Who knows, maybe I will.

Lol, ok.
What do you guys think of the possibility of a winter storm in the Northeast on Wednesday, December 8th?

Quoting Speeky:
What do you guys think of the possibility of a winter storm in the Northeast on Wednesday, December 8th?



The 1800Z run of the GFS is showing a good amount of snow for Pennsylvania, New York and north around 96-120 hours. so from that, it would be Dec. 9th or 10th if it does occur. (from GFS)
Quoting hydrus:
This is true. But what if next week a 7 mile wide, 14,560 million tonne asteroid moving at 59,000 mph strikes the Pacific, which has an average depth of over 12,000 feet, slams through ocean and crust turning the impacted mantle into something like melted butter in just a split second, creating 100 mile high tidal waves, then all that stuff that was blasted into ballistic orbit will rain back to earth, incinerating the surface and crust of every land mass, massive earthquakes ,huge volcanic eruptions and most of all, causing me to miss a few of my favorite T.V. programs.....which aint right.


An asteroid like the one you described would probably knock your shows off the air. :D

But I wouldn't worry about it. It's very unlikely to happen, and even if it did there isn't anything we could do about it. There's no place on Earth, even in the deepest nuclear bunkers, where you'd be safe from an impact like that.

If the day ever comes though I've got a plan in place. I'll get a cooler full of beer, bring out my 10" Schmidt-Cassegrain scope, and watch it come in. It'll be one hell of a show.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Lol, ok.


How strong do you think she was?
Quoting Xyrus2000:


An asteroid like the one you described would probably knock your shows off the air. :D

But I wouldn't worry about it. It's very unlikely to happen, and even if it did there isn't anything we could do about it. There's no place on Earth, even in the deepest nuclear bunkers, where you'd be safe from an impact like that.

If the day ever comes though I've got a plan in place. I'll get a cooler full of beer, bring out my 10" Schmidt-Cassegrain scope, and watch it come in. It'll be one hell of a show.
There will be some partying at my flat as well. I dont live far from the distillery, so those stiff but delicious drinks will flow free and plentiful. Talk about goin out with a bang.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Also try to get in as much sex as you can. ;)


Unexpected comment of the day.
Interesting blob in the eastern Pacific..
Also, I hope you're happy Cody: I increased Fernanda to 60 kt.
NAO heading towards the negative...
Quoting Speeky:
What do you guys think of the possibility of a winter storm in the Northeast on Wednesday, December 8th?



It would be Thursday, and it would be an event mostly for VA/MD/DE/PA/WV if it does occur. The areas north could pick up some light snow, but I believe the heaviest amounts will be in northern/northwestern VA and MD west of DC and Baltimore. There, the potential does exist for 4-8 inches with some spots up to 10 inches.

IMO.
im going to swrite santa claus for a unexpected STS in the central atlantic for Christmas lol
Quoting SPLbeater:
im going to swrite santa claus for a unexpected STS in the central atlantic for Christmas lol


No way. After I complete this blog I've been working on since October, I'm done with the tropics until May.
Quoting KoritheMan:


You can rightfully consider me the resident pervert of Weather Underground.



Encroachment! 10 yard penalty and loss of down!
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Encroachment! 10 yard penalty and loss of down!


lmao
Quoting KoritheMan:


You can rightfully consider me the resident pervert of Weather Underground.
Startin already huh?..Scary to think where you will be 20 years from now..:)
WTXS21 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 16.9S 69.9E TO 17.5S 65.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 69.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.

#2 time 98S has done this, if it develops the prediction from me and the JTWC would be wrong. lol
Re #123: Posted lies from obvious sockpuppet reported. I expect the trash will be taken out soon.
Quoting SPLbeater:
WTXS21 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 16.9S 69.9E TO 17.5S 65.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 69.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.

#2 time 98S has done this, if it develops the prediction from me and the JTWC would be wrong. lol


Welcome to weather, bud. :D
Quoting KoritheMan:


20 years from now? Considering how well I take care of myself now, hopefully I won't be dealing with erectile dysfunction.


Personal foul! 15 yard penalty and loss of down!
Quoting Neapolitan:
Quite an amazing turnaround in parts of Alaska. Just a few weeks ago, there were record low temperatures of deeper than -40; yesterday some of the same stations that dipped that low obliterated record high readings. For instance, North Pole, AK, which set a record low for the date of -49.F on 11/17, reached a record high yesterday of 49.F, completely smashing the previous record of 27.F. That's a swing of 98 degrees over a two-week period. Meanwhile, Fairbanks International, which cooled to -41.F on 11/17, warmed to 47.F yesterday, breaking the old record by 15.F for a two-week swing of 88.F.

More here: http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/extremes/records/
Yep big longwave pattern shift.

500mb anomaly for the two weeks between Nov 13 to Nov 27





500mb anomaly for Dec 1 to Dec 2 (December 2nd is as far back as daily PSD analysis goes back)







In the first image there is a large high south of the Aleutian islands and a strong low over Alaska and Western Canada. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low produced winds out of the N to NW advecting cold polar air out of the Arctic and into Alaska. In the second image there's a large high off the Pacific Northwest and Gulf of Alaska producing southwesterly flow into Alaska which advect warmer air out of the southern latitudes and into the region.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



Encroachment! 10 yard penalty and loss of down!


this is a prime example of why i was given the ignore button from wunderground. for people who want to talk about subjects with age limits(your not included in the handful). Not considering some mid-aged kids could be here to grow and learn im meteorology.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Yep big longwave pattern shift.

500mb anomaly for the two weeks between Nov 13 to Nov 27





500mb anomaly for Dec 1 to Dec 2 (December 2nd is as far back as daily PSD analysis goes back)







In the first image there is a large high south of the Aleutian islands and a strong low over Alaska and Western Canada. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low produced winds out of the N to NW advecting cold polar air out of the Arctic and into Alaska. In the second image there's a large high off the Pacific Northwest and Gulf of Alaska producing southwesterly winds which advect warmer air out of the southern latitudes and into Alaska.


The Alaskan death ridge™.
I see there was some landslides in Trinidad and Tobago today.. How ya'll doing there?
Quoting SPLbeater:


this is a prime example of why i was given the ignore button from wunderground. for people who want to talk about subjects with age limits(your not included in the handful). Not considering some mid-aged kids could be here to grow and learn im meteorology.


Killjoy. :(
Quoting SPLbeater:


this is a prime example of why i was given the ignore button from wunderground. for people who want to talk about subjects with age limits(your not included in the handful). Not considering some mid-aged kids could be here to grow and learn im meteorology.


Also, says the guy who randomly brings up religion.

WHOOSH!
Quoting Skyepony:
I see there was some landslides in Trinidad and Tobago today.. How ya'll doing there?


I hope pottery chimes in and gives us an update!
Quoting KoritheMan:


How strong do you think she was?
Quoting KoritheMan:
Also, I hope you're happy Cody: I increased Fernanda to 60 kt.

It was probably around 60 knots, but may have briefly attained 65 knots in the open waters of the Eastern Pacific.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It was probably around 60 knots, but may have briefly attained 65 knots in the open waters of the Eastern Pacific.


Here's my justification for not upgrading her to a hurricane. Make of it what you will:

Fernanda's peak intensity is based primarily on Dvorak estimates, which averaged close to 4.0 during the period of assessed peak intensity. Although one could make the argument that Fernanda was briefly a hurricane according to Dvorak estimates, the satellite signature was still somewhat sheared at that point, with upper-level outflow confined primarily to the western semicircle. Additionally, Fernanda began to slowly weaken after this time. The combination of the ragged satellite signature and the short-lived nature of the well-organized cloud pattern observed during the time of peak intensity, argues against Fernanda having been a hurricane.
Quoting KoritheMan:


The Alaskan death ridge™.
Tell you what it has been giving us crummy weather down here in SD, California. It has been sunny and cloud free, but it's also been pretty cold...I can't stand cold weather
Closed LLC just east of Leeward Islands. its weak, but could be watched:)
Quoting KoritheMan:


Here's my justification for not upgrading her to a hurricane. Make of it what you will:

Fernanda's peak intensity is based primarily on Dvorak estimates, which averaged close to 4.0 during the period of assessed peak intensity. Although one could make the argument that Fernanda was briefly a hurricane according to Dvorak estimates, the satellite signature was still somewhat sheared at that point, with upper-level outflow confined primarily to the western semicircle. Additionally, Fernanda began to slowly weaken after this time. The combination of the ragged satellite signature and the short-lived nature of the well-organized cloud pattern observed during the time of peak intensity, argues against Fernanda having been a hurricane.

I don't see the system's structure as THAT MUCH of a justification of not upgrading a system. Remember Nate? Without the ship/oil rig data, it wouldn't have been upgraded to a hurricane.

With that, I'm off for the night.

20 days and counting...
Quoting TomTaylor:
Tell you what it has been giving us crummy weather down here in SD, California. It has been sunny and cloud free, but it's also been pretty cold...I can't stand cold weather


Yeah, cold weather sucks. But snow ftw.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't see the system's structure as THAT MUCH of a justification of not upgrading a system. Remember Nate? Without the ship/oil rig data, it wouldn't have been upgraded to a hurricane.

With that, I'm off for the night.

20 days and counting...


Yeah, and that's not typical for most hurricanes. The exception to the rule, not the common one.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't see the system's structure as THAT MUCH of a justification of not upgrading a system. Remember Nate? Without the ship/oil rig data, it wouldn't have been upgraded to a hurricane.

With that, I'm off for the night.

20 days and counting...


remember to write Santa Claus for a STS in the open central atlantic for Christmas lol. then he will have 2 letters and will consider it xD
151. DDR
Quoting Skyepony:
I see there was some landslides in Trinidad and Tobago today.. How ya'll doing there?

Hi skyepony,sadly one person died when landslide came down on his home in a north eastern area called San Souci.
I had 4 inches in 24 hours,eastern areas got more than that.
Quoting Skyepony:
I see there was some landslides in Trinidad and Tobago today.. How ya'll doing there?
Yikes, hope everyone is ok, that's too bad about the one person who lost their life though. Rest in peace
Electric cars.....
I have not had time to digest this article, but I thought others might be interested.

Life Cycle Assessment of EVs Reveals Startling Results

Link

A number of articles published this week paint a negative picture of electric cars based on a British study published earlier this month. The study attempts a comparative life-cycle assessment (LCA) of conventional, hybrid and electric cars and prompted “downer” headlines such as, “Electric Cars May Not Be So Green After All” and “More Bad News For The Chevy Volt.”
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, cold weather sucks. But snow ftw.
Yeah I know, I really wished it snowed in San Diego lol. Really want to learn how to snowboard this winter too
GOES-15 had it's final test the other day..a full disk scan every 30 mins. It captured the wind even in CA very well..


Quoting DDR:

Hi skyepony,sadly one person died when landslide came down on his home in a north eastern area called San Souci.
I had 4 inches in 24 hours,eastern areas got more than that.


Hope you get a chance to dry out. Looks like a bad scene. Saw it was being blamed on denuding the mountains..
156. MTWX
Quoting KoritheMan:


Yeah, cold weather sucks. But snow ftw.

If it could snow at 70 degrees I would be a happy camper!! Skiing in shorts!!
Quoting MTWX:

If it could snow at 70 degrees I would be a happy camper!! Skiing in shorts!!


Can I get a hell yeah?
98S Showing signs of life..


Quoting 1911maker:
Electric cars.....
I have not had time to digest this article, but I thought others might be interested.

Life Cycle Assessment of EVs Reveals Startling Results

Link

A number of articles published this week paint a negative picture of electric cars based on a British study published earlier this month. The study attempts a comparative life-cycle assessment (LCA) of conventional, hybrid and electric cars and prompted “downer” headlines such as, “Electric Cars May Not Be So Green After All” and “More Bad News For The Chevy Volt.”


The "Comments" section, of the article, was also interesting reading.
Quoting SPLbeater:


The 1800Z run of the GFS is showing a good amount of snow for Pennsylvania, New York and north around 96-120 hours. so from that, it would be Dec. 9th or 10th if it does occur. (from GFS)


Having deja vu. Remember last December? Snowstorm after snowstorm for the coast, but us inland who actually WANT the snow It's just brutally cold. Is there some reason for this. Global warming? La nina?
Quoting Xyrus2000:


An asteroid like the one you described would probably knock your shows off the air. :D

But I wouldn't worry about it. It's very unlikely to happen, and even if it did there isn't anything we could do about it. There's no place on Earth, even in the deepest nuclear bunkers, where you'd be safe from an impact like that.

If the day ever comes though I've got a plan in place. I'll get a cooler full of beer, bring out my 10" Schmidt-Cassegrain scope, and watch it come in. It'll be one hell of a show.
but it will be scary
Here's my report on Greg:

Hurricane Greg

August 16 - August 21

Greg was a minimal hurricane that remained offshore the coast of Mexico before dissipating.

a. Storm history

Greg appears to have developed from a tropical wave which moved off the coast of Africa on August 2. This wave was nearly impossible to track using satellite imagery as it moved westward across the tropical Atlantic. A small blowup of showers in the central Caribbean late on August 10 may have been related to this wave. The wave continued westward toward Central America, generating little convection. The wave is estimated to have moved into the eastern Pacific basin late on August 11, although its presence was masked by a merging with an active Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). A series of westward-moving tropical waves may have enhanced shower activity south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the following several days, but little organization of the large disturbance was noted. The system began to show signs of organization on August 15, though the associated convection wasn't particularly deep. Around 0000 UTC August 16, the disturbance began to consolidate, with more vigorous convection that wrapped cyclonically into a well-defined center. The disturbance is estimated to have become a tropical depression around 1800 UTC August 16 while centered roughly 250 miles south of Acapulco, Mexico. The depression became a tropical storm near 0600 UTC August 17.

Greg moved west-northwest under the influence of a strong mid-level ridge to its north. Initially, Greg's strengthening was rather fast, with the cyclone becoming a hurricane near 0000 UTC August 18 while centered about 270 miles west-southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. The hurricane continued to intensify, reaching its peak of 75 kt at 1200 UTC that day while centered approximately 400 miles south of the southern tip of Baja California. Greg began to weaken after that, possibly in response to increasing northeasterly vertical shear and cooler waters. Greg also appears to have ingested a dry lower- to middle-tropospheric airmass during this time. The conglomeration of these factors led to weakening of the tropical cyclone, with Greg falling below hurricane strength shortly before 1200 UTC August 19. Greg weakened to a tropical depression shortly after 0000 UTC August 20.

The weakening vortex turned westward in the lower-tropospheric flow on the south side of the Pacific subtropical high, becoming a non-convective remnant low by 1200 UTC August 21, centered around 900 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California.
163. wxmod

Pacific weather under construction.
Quoting wxmod:
Link
Pacific weather looks a little weird today!


A 404 error?
Quoting winter123:


Having deja vu. Remember last December? Snowstorm after snowstorm for the coast, but us inland who actually WANT the snow It's just brutally cold. Is there some reason for this. Global warming? La nina?


That neg NAO has got to be around the corner as lopsided as the sea ice has become over the last few weeks. Started with a nice spread, now it's about all on the Pacific side.


Hudson sea ice anomaly is free falling as it struggles to freeze. The peer review was out a few months ago, this tends to disrupt & sling the polar vortex down the east coast. They get the snow behind it gets the cold like you noted..


Another thing I noticed tonight.. ESPI is -.86... I expect La Niña to strengthen slightly over the next month or so.
@ skyepony
Another interesting link for keeping tabs on the sea ice is http://www.ec.gc.ca/glaces-ice/default.asp?lang=En &n=D32C361E-1
And in other parts of the world, it's getting a bit wild out west:

Link

Also done with TD8-E!

Tropical Depression Eight-E

August 31 - September 1

This depression was a short-lived one that briefly moved inland across southwestern Mexico and dissipated.

a. Storm history

The origins of this depression are quite unclear, but might be related to a tropical wave which crossed the coast of Africa on August 15. The northern portion of the tropical wave moved quickly westward and eventually spawned Hurricane Irene near the Leeward Islands. The southern portion lagged behind in the central Atlantic, possibly in response to outflow from Hurricane Irene combining with a longwave trough moving through the western Atlantic to amplify a weakness in the subtropical ridge. Extrapolation places the tropical wave in the jurisdiction of the eastern Pacific around August 28. As the wave continued westward, it interacted with a preexisting disturbance that was located several hundred miles south of the southwest coast of Mexico -- this disturbance was likely a perturbation within the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The interaction of these two features helped to initiate a more concentrated area of disturbed weather, although convection within this area was sporadic and not well-organized.

Possibly due to the large nature of the cyclonic envelope in which this system was embedded, development was slow, and the low did not become a tropical depression until around 0600 UTC August 31 while centered about 130 miles west of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. The depression quickly moved inland near La Mira near 1500 UTC that day. The circulation of the weak cyclone was quickly disrupted by the rugged terrain of the Sierra Madre del Sur, and the cyclone dissipated over southwest Mexico around 0000 UTC September 1. The depression moved back over water later that day, generating a large area of deep but disorganized convection. The system lost its identity the next day as it neared the southern tip of Baja California.
Quoting allancalderini:
but it will be scary


So what? Fear is one of the things that makes us human -- fear of the unknown.
Quoting chimera245:
And in other parts of the world, it's getting a bit wild out west:

Link



Looks exciting.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #1
DEPRESSION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
10:30 AM RET December 6 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Depression 02 (998 hPa) located at 16.3S 69.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving southwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.3S 68.2E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.4S 67.1E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 16.8S 64.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
72 HRS: 16.8S 62.8E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)

Additional Information
======================

System 02R has reached the stage of tropical depression during the last 6 hours. ASCAT data at 4:11z depicts 30 knot winds in the southern semi-circle and under convection. According to the last available animated pictures convection is not well structured. The system is shifting west southwestward over the lower tropospheric subtropical ridge. Energetic potential is poor. Upper level wind shear is weak. System should reach the stage of moderate tropical storm. Beyond 72 hours it should undergo a strong vertical wind shear and fill up.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ALENGA (01-20112012)
10:30 AM RET December 6 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Alenga (990 hPa) located at 13.0S 87.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south at 3 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 13.8S 87.5E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 14.7S 89.3E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 17.0S 93.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 21.0S 100.4E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

According to the last available satellite data, Alenga's structure has rapidly changed during the last 6 hours and system is weakening and is currently a moderate tropical storm.

In relationship with a mid-level trough transiting in its south, Alenga is forecast to progressively accelerate towards the southeast.

On and after 1200z, system begins to undergo moderate west northwesterly vertical wind shear and intensity is expected to decrease faster. On this forecast, the system should pass east of 90E Wednesday morning. Thursday, an increase of vertical wind shear and cooler sea surface temperature should produce significant weakening on the system. Extratropical transition is now expected at this time.
I just churned out the final report for the night. I'll probably have the entire thing completed by tomorrow:

Hurricane Hilary

September 21 - September 30

Hilary was a small but powerful Category 4 hurricane that came very close to the southwest coast of Mexico before turning away.

a. Storm history

Hilary developed from a weak tropical wave that moved off Africa on September 9. A large burst of convection developed to the west of the wave axis the next day, but this appears to have been at least partially related to the Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ). The wave soon lost the deep convection that was associated with it, and continued moving westward across the tropical Atlantic. The wave generated a large burst of convection across the Gulf of Panama late on September 16, moved across Central America, and entered the eastern Pacific on September 18. The wave began to show signs of organization late on September 19, and scatterometer data suggested that the low-level center was becoming better defined. The system developed a surface low around 0600 UTC the next day while centered about 200 miles south of Salina Cruz, Mexico. The low continued to become better organized as it moved slowly west-northwest. Satellite data suggested that the system became a tropical depression near 0600 UTC September 21 while centered about 180 miles southeast of Puerto Escondido, Mexico. The depression quickly became a tropical storm.

Hilary became a hurricane near 0900 UTC September 22 while centered about 250 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Amidst favorable environmental conditions characterized by low vertical shear, warm waters, and a moist environment, the hurricane rapidly intensified, and based on satellite data, became a major hurricane around 1800 UTC September 22. As it slowly moved away from the coast of Mexico, Hilary continued to strengthen, and reached Category 4 strength near 0000 UTC September 23. About six hours later, the hurricane reached its peak intensity of 130 kt while centered about 120 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. At that time, the cloud pattern of Hilary was quite the spectacle, with a small but well-defined eye embedded within a very symmetrical central dense overcast. However, scatterometer data showed that Hilary was a rather small hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to no more than about 70 miles. The small size of the circulation could have been a contributor to the rapid intensification that was observed through the early stages of the cyclone's lifespan.

After assuming peak intensity, Hilary remained a powerful Category 4, although the eye briefly disappeared near 0900 UTC September 24. The hurricane continued westward and slowly weakened, becoming a Category 3 near 0600 UTC September 25 while located about 420 miles south-southeast of the southern tip of Baja California. Since the synoptic environment was seemingly favorable during this time, this weakening appears to have been related to changes within the inner core structure, namely an eyewall replacement cycle. As the cycle culminated, Hilary began to restrengthen a little again late on September 25, and is estimated to have briefly regained Category 4 status again near 1800 UTC September 26 while centered about 485 miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Hilary weakened to a Category 3 again six hours later. The hurricane also gradually turned northwestward as a large trough amplified off the United States west coast.

The eye briefly reappeared late on September 27, disappearing for a final time just after 0000 UTC September 28. As the hurricane moved across cooler sea surface temperatures, it slowly weakened, losing hurricane strength near 0000 UTC September 29 while located around 600 miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. The tropical cyclone continued to spin down, weakening to a tropical depression near 1200 UTC that day. Hilary weakened to a remnant low around 0600 UTC September 30 while centered about 750 miles west of the southern tip of the Baja Peninsula.

I should note that Hilary was a difficult storm to summarize, given its tenacity.
Quoting hydrus:
This is true. But what if next week a 7 mile wide, 14,560 million tonne asteroid moving at 59,000 mph strikes the Pacific, which has an average depth of over 12,000 feet, slams through ocean and crust turning the impacted mantle into something like melted butter in just a split second, creating 100 mile high tidal waves, then all that stuff that was blasted into ballistic orbit will rain back to earth, incinerating the surface and crust of every land mass, massive earthquakes ,huge volcanic eruptions and most of all, causing me to miss a few of my favorite T.V. programs.....which aint right.


To create a 100 mile high tsunami, you're going to need a bigger bolide impact than that.

Chicxulub - which was around 6 miles wide - created tsunami around the 1 or 2 mile high variety. So, from simple, crude extrapolation, you're going to need a 400-600 mile wide spacerock to do that. There's only around 3 or 4 asteroids that big known, of which one includes Ceres, the minor planet. A planetoid crashing to earth? I think a megatsunami or iminami will be the least of your worries :)

Nice call on the verneshot, though. An interesting theoretical scenario.
ESL by LSU


Loop Current Eddy Formation and Recapturing in the Gulf

Climate change talks not like soccer: Zuma
Sapa | 06 December, 2011 12:21


The climate talks in Durban should not be like the Soccer World Cup, where only a few teams qualified and there was only one winner, President Jacob Zuma said on Tuesday.

Countries should rise above national interests when negotiating about what needed to be done to deal with climate change, he said.

"This event is not like the 2010 Fifa Soccer World Cup tournament that we proudly hosted, where only a few soccer teams qualified, with one ultimate winner," Zuma said.

Speaking during the high-level dialogue and round table on global sustainability in a changing climate, Zuma said all countries had qualified to participate in the COP 17 talks and all should emerge as winners.

"According to your programme, you will continue with extensive deliberations on possible solutions for what we need to do now and what we agree to do in the future."

It was important for countries to think beyond their national interests during negotiations, no matter how difficult that may be.

Developing countries feared their economic development could be hampered by countries that had contributed immensely to the concentrations of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

The global emissions of greenhouse gases from developing countries were growing rapidly, Zuma said.

"The developed world must continue to take the lead. On the other hand, the developing countries must show a willingness to take their fair share of responsibilities."

South Africa believed that without a multilateral rules-based system there would be no guarantee that countries would honour their commitments to reducing emissions that caused climate change.

The discussion was attended by scientists, heads of states and Jean Ping, the chairman of the Commission of the African Union.

Zuma said it was important that the level of ambition on dealing with climate change should correspond to the demands of science.

"Any agreement on a future response should also take into account what science prescribes, as well as the outcome of the 5th report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change."

Before Zuma's address, Professor Johan Rockstrom, chairman of the 3rd Nobel Laureate symposium on global sustainability, painted a gloomy picture of the effects of climate change.

He said there would be huge chaos if climate change was not addressed, and poor countries would be the hardest hit.

Rockstrom said it was unfair that the developed countries, which were regarded as major contributors to emissions, would be the least vulnerable to the effects of climate change.

Climate change would increase drought in Africa, which would lead to poverty, and the monsoon rains would be disrupted, making people unable to predict the weather.
Rise and shine Pat
Herman Cain.....POOF, talked the talked....but just couldnt walk the walk
02S from this morning
Dalhart, Texas (Airport)
Clear
2 F
Clear
Windchill: -13 F
Humidity: 80%
Dew Point: -3 F
Wind: 9 mph from the WNW
Pressure: 30.45 in (Falling)
Visibility: 10.0 miles


Quoting Cotillion:


To create a 100 mile high tsunami, you're going to need a bigger bolide impact than that.

Chicxulub - which was around 6 miles wide - created tsunami around the 1 or 2 mile high variety. So, from simple, crude extrapolation, you're going to need a 400-600 mile wide spacerock to do that. There's only around 3 or 4 asteroids that big known, of which one includes Ceres, the minor planet. A planetoid crashing to earth? I think a megatsunami or iminami will be the least of your worries :)

Nice call on the verneshot, though. An interesting theoretical scenario.
The sea was very shallow where the Chicxulub impact occurred. I exaggerated my wave for effect. I do believe if this impact had happened in deeper water, the wave would have been at least as high as the asteroid is wide. You can see what the sea was like during the Cretacious period at the left central part of this image..Some cool lookin little birds and pterosaurs were around in this era of Earth,s history...
Snow coming for some folks..
Nice visible shots of TX panhandle, NM, KS, CO, NB of snow on the ground
*SNORE*
Quoting allancalderini:
but it will be scary
yes. your last show....
Ots

You can see a huge linear swath of snow from the S.W.U.S all the way up into Central Canada..
TC Alenga(01S)

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.6 / 990.4mb/ 57.0kt

Raw T# 3.5
Adj T# 3.5
Final T# 3.4

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

---------------------------
TC TWO(02S)

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.6 /1000.6mb/ 37.0kt

Raw T# 2.6
Adj T# 2.6
Final T# 2.4

Scene Type: SHEAR


Hilary became a hurricane near 0900 UTC September 22 while centered about 250 miles southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Amidst favorable environmental conditions characterized by low vertical shear, warm waters, and a moist environment, the hurricane rapidly intensified, and based on satellite data, became a major hurricane around 1800 UTC September 22. As it slowly moved away from the coast of Mexico, Hilary continued to strengthen, and reached Category 4 strength near 0000 UTC September 23. About six hours later, the hurricane reached its peak intensity of 130 kt while centered about 120 miles south of Zihuatanejo, Mexico. At that time, the cloud pattern of Hilary was quite the spectacle, with a small but well-defined eye embedded within a very symmetrical central dense overcast. However, scatterometer data showed that Hilary was a rather small hurricane, with tropical storm force winds extending outward up to no more than about 70 miles. The small size of the circulation could have been a contributor to the rapid intensification that was observed through the early stages of the cyclone's lifespan.
TEXAS

Today's State Extremes Hide
State Highs:
South Padre Island 53°F
North Padre Island 53°F
McAllen 51°F
Port Isabel 51°F
Brownsville 51°F

State Lows:
Pampa / Mesa Vista 1°F
Pampa 1°F
Hereford 3°F
Dumas 3°F
Amarillo 3°F
Quoting hydrus:
The sea was very shallow where the Chicxulub impact occurred. I exaggerated my wave for effect. I do believe if this impact had happened in deeper water, the wave would have been at least as high as the asteroid is wide. You can see what the sea was like during the Cretacious period at the left central part of this image..Some cool lookin little birds and pterosaurs were around in this era of Earth,s history...


I know, just couldn't resist saying. It probably depends, more water would certainly be displaced in a deep ocean impact, but there would be less of a funnelling (the bigger tsunamis tend to be when they're funnelled, like the one in Alaska in '58) effect. Partly why landslides can be so dangerous.

By the way, while I'm not sure if the Discovery Channel retracted their decision or it was found out to be false, the last episode of the BBC's Frozen Planet series airs tomorrow (the episode pertaining to climate change and such).

So, if one was so inclined, you may be able to scout to see if it's available.

Quoting KoritheMan:


I hope pottery chimes in and gives us an update!

And see post 151.
Plenty rain recently, with some showers in the 4" to 6" zone.
There have been landslides and some pretty severe flooding, and so far one fatality from a landslide that destroyed a house.

According to reports, the man was sight-impaired and aged.
He woke in the very early morning and "heard" something that caused him to wake the rest of the family and he told them to run from the house.
They did that, but they were unable to get him out fast enough. He was trapped when the hillside came down, burying him.
The survivors say that he saved their lives.

The village is called San Souci.
Which means, "Without Cares".

Looks like the Wet Season is tapering off now.
Bright and sunny today and most of yesterday.
We still expect showers through December and into Jan., then the dryseason from Jan. to May.

Last dryseason was relatively wet, and this rainy season has been particularly so. Most of the Island is saturated, and more slides and slips are probable.
This next system may have a little more punch than forecast....
Why the system which center I estimate at 19N 53W isn't noticed anywhere? I'm asking someone now to have a professional look on this
Typical street flooding, Maraval, Trinidad 2011.

Quoting Cotillion:


I know, just couldn't resist saying. It probably depends, more water would certainly be displaced in a deep ocean impact, but there would be less of a funnelling (the bigger tsunamis tend to be when they're funnelled, like the one in Alaska in '58) effect. Partly why landslides can be so dangerous.

By the way, while I'm not sure if the Discovery Channel retracted their decision or it was found out to be false, the last episode of the BBC's Frozen Planet series airs tomorrow (the episode pertaining to climate change and such).

So, if one was so inclined, you may be able to scout to see if it's available.

Is that the one about the hypothesized" Snowball Earth "? This is a 2.1 billion year old rock with black-band ironstone that may have formed during these snowball periods...Kinda neat lookin..Excerpt and link to Wiki...The Snowball Earth hypothesis posits that the Earth's surface became entirely or nearly entirely frozen at least once, some time earlier than 650 Ma (million years ago). Proponents of the hypothesis argue that it best explains sedimentary deposits generally regarded as of glacial origin at tropical paleolatitudes, and other otherwise enigmatic features in the geological record. Opponents of the hypothesis contest the implications of the geological evidence for global glaciation, the geophysical feasibility of an ice- or slush-covered ocean,[2][3] and the difficulty of escaping an all-frozen condition. There are a number of unanswered questions, including whether the Earth was a full snowball, or a "slushball" with a thin equatorial band of open (or seasonally open) water.

The geological time frames under consideration come before the sudden multiplication of life forms on Earth known as the Cambrian explosion, and the most recent snowball episode may have triggered the evolution of multi-cellular life on Earth. Another, much earlier and longer, snowball episode, the Huronian glaciation, which occurred 2400 to 2100 Ma may have been triggered by the oxygen catastrophe.Link
Quoting pottery:
Typical street flooding, Maraval, Trinidad 2011.

Good morning Pott. Hope you are well..bbl
Quoting hydrus:
This next system may have a little more punch than forecast....




you are showing us a black boxs of nothing
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Why the system which center I estimate at 19N 53W isn't noticed anywhere? I'm asking someone now to have a professional look on this


when hurricane season is over, the NHC is conservative on things. With this system, the probably case is that wind shear is high 25-40 knots, convection isnt sustaining itself for a long period, and dry air is to its south. I dont think it has any model support either...(assumption)

:D
oh man im bored....im going outside guys be back soon =P
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #3
DEPRESSION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
22:30 PM RET December 6 2011
==============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Tropical Depression 02 (999 hPa) located at 16.5S 67.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 with gusts of 45 knots. The depression is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
80 NM from the center in the southern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.5/W0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.7S 66.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 16.9S 65.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 16.9S 63.9E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 16.7S 62.1E - 25 knots (Low Pressure)

Additional Information
======================

The center has been relocated to the northwest according to latest microwave imagery. Deep convection has disappeared close to the center and exist only within a peripheral band located to more than 120 NM in near gale force winds in the southern semi-circle. System is now tracking westward. Rebuilding subtropical anticyclone within the next 24 hours should improve the polar inflow in the lower levels. Energetic potential is poor (26/26.5 degrees). Upper level wind shear is weak. System should deepen a bit within the next 24 hours and could reach moderate tropical storm status. Due to the current trend, this is a low confident forecast. Beyond 48 hours, it should weaken due to a strong vertical wind shear and fill up beyond 96 hours.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ALENGA (01-20112012)
22:30 PM RET December 6 2011
==============================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Alenga (995 hPa) located at 13.9S 88.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/W0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.7S 90.4E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 15.9S 92.9E - 40 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 18.8S 98.5E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.8S 101.1E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

It is a little bit tricky to find Alenga's center tonight with the most recent fix, and uncertain METOP IR3 fix of 1513z. Vigorous convection has started near the center since 1200z but come mainly from the southwestern quadrant according to latest SSMIS overpass of 1149z. Current cloud pattern is closed to an irregular central dense overcast pattern of a little more than 90 NM diameter.

Alenga seems now to speed up towards the east southeast as it is catching within the west northwesterly steering flow that exists ahead of a mid-level trough transiting in its south.

Only a minor change has been made on the intensity forecast. On an after Thursday, system should undergo a moderate west northwesterly vertical wind shear. Intensity is expected to decrease faster, and system should begin its extratropical transition.

On this forecast, the system should pass east of 90E Wednesday morning. Current forecast is a little bit faster than the previous one about this point.
02S, 17:00Z
Quoting SPLbeater:


when hurricane season is over, the NHC is conservative on things. With this system, the probably case is that wind shear is high 25-40 knots, convection isnt sustaining itself for a long period, and dry air is to its south. I dont think it has any model support either...(assumption)

:D

How would you know they're conservative? We've not any real tropical system to test it out on.
Quoting PolishHurrMaster:
Why the system which center I estimate at 19N 53W isn't noticed anywhere? I'm asking someone now to have a professional look on this
It certainly looks interesting but its December, so a system needs more than that to gain attention and of course, models support...
Those post pangea maps don't ever seem to handle crust expansion properly.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How would you know they're conservative? We've not any real tropical system to test it out on.


its been observed
Quoting SPLbeater:


its been observed

Not really...
Quoting HuracanTaino:
It certainly looks interesting but its December, so a system needs more than that to gain attention and of course, models support...


No model support? A lot of models have it developing in 24 hours. It's unlikely that that would happen, and the origins of this is the same as our last two bust invests..90L and 99L, so it will probably follow the same path as those two.
Quoting yqt1001:


No model support? A lot of models have it developing in 24 hours. It's unlikely that that would happen, and the origins of this is the same as our last two bust invests..90L and 99L, so it will probably follow the same path as those two.

That's not true...Looks like that this system will follow a completely different path. The CMC brings it into the Bahamas by 144 hours.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Not really...


i am not using observations from 2011. i have followed the tropics since 08 tracked every atlantic movement since 09. in 09 and 2010, i have seen some systems that would have gotten 10% in august/september, and in late november they had nothing. the NHC tends to require more agressiveness in a Tropical Wave, or Low pressure system in late/post season Hurricane season then they do in early/mid hurricane season.
Quoting SPLbeater:


i am not using observations from 2011. i have followed the tropics since 08 tracked every atlantic movement since 09. in 09 and 2010, i have seen some systems that would have gotten 10% in august/september, and in late november they had nothing. the NHC tends to require more agressiveness in a Tropical Wave, or Low pressure system in late/post season Hurricane season then they do in early/mid hurricane season.

They have no bias in what time of year it is when it comes to tropical cyclones. They choose the percentages they think are warranted, regardless of whether its August or December.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's not true...Looks like that this system will follow a completely different path. The CMC brings it into the Bahamas by 144 hours.


True, but it's origins are the same, just this one will have much longer time over warm water and less shear (although it will still be heavy shear regardless). Maybe it has a chance...
CMC has the tropical system in the Bahamas moving southwestward towards Cuba.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They have no bias in what time of year it is when it comes to tropical cyclones. They choose the percentages they think are warranted, regardless of whether its August or December.


gotta disagree there. ASCAT picked up a small, weak circulation center yesterday evening, and convection was deep in some areas overtop it(area near Lesser Antilles) today the supposed circulation isnt that great and convection going down recently.
Quoting SPLbeater:


gotta disagree there. ASCAT picked up a small, weak circulation center yesterday evening, and convection was deep in some areas overtop it(area near Lesser Antilles) today the supposed circulation isnt that great and convection going down recently.

What you saw what was not a closed circulation. It was a messy, disorganized, and weak area of low pressure that did not warrant any mention in a special Tropical Weather Outlook.
#196

No, sorry, Hydrus. Should've put in a break between the two paragraphs, they weren't connected. Just a comment to whoever was interested.

Refers to Frozen Planet

It does appear whenever the DVD is released, it'll contain all seven episodes as intended (including for US viewers).

Quoting biff4ugo:
Those post pangea maps don't ever seem to handle crust expansion properly.


Crust expansion...?
Really?

Look towards the top left corner, 10-15knot winds. it did not last, but if this was in september i garuntee it would have gotten atleast <10%.
Deep South TX under freeze warnings. Florida missing out on the cold and winter over there.

Quoting Cotillion:


I know, just couldn't resist saying. It probably depends, more water would certainly be displaced in a deep ocean impact, but there would be less of a funnelling (the bigger tsunamis tend to be when they're funnelled, like the one in Alaska in '58) effect. Partly why landslides can be so dangerous.

By the way, while I'm not sure if the Discovery Channel retracted their decision or it was found out to be false, the last episode of the BBC's Frozen Planet series airs tomorrow (the episode pertaining to climate change and such).

So, if one was so inclined, you may be able to scout to see if it's available.


From want of anything much else to do on this cold night in the northern UK.3/c here with gales tomorrow.
I would like to postulate that the maths connected with meteor impact must depend on 4 things:-
1,Physical Size rather than Mass of object at impact.
2,Speed of object at impact.
3,Angle of trajectory at point of impact.
4,Depth of water at point of impact.
Given the high level of mathematical ability of some of the bloggers on this site, I am sure that the size of any waves resulting form an hypothetical impact can relatively easily be calculated and no doubt relevant graphs drawn up.
PS.Its behond me but I'd love to see them!
Quoting SPLbeater:
Really?

Look towards the top left corner, 10-15knot winds. it did not last, but if this was in september i garuntee it would have gotten atleast <10%.

I guarantee it wouldn't have.
Upper 30s and Low 40s ALLLLLLL day long here in SE TX, cloudy, gray, blustery day in the Lone Star State.

Another inch of rain yesterday, Trees, plants catching a break from the relentless heat and drought, but FAR from over
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I guarantee it wouldn't have.


you can remain in rebellion as long as you want, but i have indications that it would have been and you dont contain any to prove it wouldnt have been. end of discussion.
Quoting SPLbeater:


you can remain in rebellion as long as you want, but i have indications that it would have been and you dont contain any to prove it wouldnt have been. end of discussion.


Says the guy citing anecdotal evidence, rather than scientific observation. In the confines of a scientific discussion, no less.
Hello!

Quoting RitaEvac:
Upper 30s and Low 40s ALLLLLLL day long here in SE TX, cloudy, gray, blustery day in the Lone Star State.

Another inch of rain yesterday, Trees, plants catching a break from the relentless heat and drought, but FAR from over





Somehow WIND CHILL just doesn't seem fair though.  :(  Sigh



Orange County Airport
Lat: 30.07   Lon: -93.8   Elev: 13
Last Update on Dec 6, 3:35 pm CST





Overcast

41 °F
(5 °C)




















Humidity: 87 % Wind Speed: NW 9 MPH Barometer: 30.19" Dewpoint: 37 °F (3 °C) Wind Chill: 35 °F (2 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi. :



Quoting Grothar:
Hello!

Buenas tardes,
And we all thought you had gone away on vacation to some frozen wasteland for a well deserved break!
Quoting SPLbeater:


you can remain in rebellion as long as you want, but i have indications that it would have been and you dont contain any to prove it wouldnt have been. end of discussion.

Excuse me? Since when ha--

You know what? Nevermind. Think whatever you want.
Quoting PlazaRed:

Buenas tardes,
And we all thought you had gone away on vacation to some frozen wasteland for a well deserved break!


Hola! I am still away. I went to watch the glaciers retreating. Here is a little picture of Greenland I just took. :)

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Excuse me? Since when ha--

You know what? Nevermind. Think whatever you want.


Hey, tropical! Who are you fighting with now?
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, tropical! Who are you fighting with now?


SPLbeater. i dont succumb easy xD
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, tropical! Who are you fighting with now?

Hi Gro.

I'm arguing with SLPBeater because he thinks that the system near the Leeward Islands would've gotten mentioned in the TWO if it were August/September, and he says that the NHC is being more conservative because it is off season, which just isn't true.

Quoting SPLbeater:


SPLbeater. i dont succumb easy xD


Aw, come on now. Tropical is a nice guy. I have known him for years. Since you two are usually the only two on here sometimes, you shouldn't be arguing. It's like living next door to an ex-wife, just smile and be friendly when you see each other.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hi Gro.

I'm arguing with SLPBeater because he thinks that the system near the Leeward Islands would've gotten mentioned in the TWO if it were August/September, and he says that the NHC is being more conservative because it is off season, which just isn't true.



There are always swirls out there. I don't pay attention to them. You see a lot in winter but they are usually short lived.
I am flying back to Philadelphia on Thursday. Anything I should know about concerning the weather then?
Quoting Grothar:
I am flying back to Philadelphia on Thursday. Anything I should know about concerning the weather then?

Yes.
Quoting Grothar:


Aw, come on now. Tropical is a nice guy. I have known him for years. Since you two are usually the only two on here sometimes, you shouldn't be arguing. It's like living next door to an ex-wife, just smile and be friendly when you see each other.


yeah he nice to certain people, all i get is stern comments which arent taken lightly
Quoting Grothar:


Hola! I am still away. I went to watch the glaciers retreating. Here is a little picture of Greenland I just took. :)


Como Estas?
Usted es el corazon de nosotros mas predido!
(You are the heart of us most lost!)
We had cause to worry with all this evidence of impending doom and drowning from this CO2 stuff we felt that you had baled out in favour of one of these newly discovered paradise planets a mere 600 light years away!
However an"Alma" restored is a soul regained!
Love that picture of the south coast of Greenland in Autumn!
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hi Gro.

I'm arguing with SLPBeater because he thinks that the system near the Leeward Islands would've gotten mentioned in the TWO if it were August/September, and he says that the NHC is being more conservative because it is off season, which just isn't true.



the las tthing im going to say to you. if you can PROVE to me, and show me evidence that my view isnt true, i will tell you your right. until then, goodbye
Quoting SPLbeater:


yeah he nice to certain people, all i get is stern comments which arent taken lightly

That's because you stray far away from what we talk about, including bringing your religion onto the blog, as well as saying that the NHC is wrong in not classifying 90L/99L.

I don't tolerate either.
Quoting SPLbeater:


the las tthing im going to say to you. if you can PROVE to me, and show me evidence that my view isnt true, i will tell you your right. until then, goodbye

Shoe me YOUR evidence, because any you have is not plausible.
YAWN
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yes.


You didn't have to provide so much detail!!!
Quoting Grothar:


You didn't have to provide so much detail!!!

Lol, it'll be cold.
Quoting Grothar:
I am flying back to Philadelphia on Thursday. Anything I should know about concerning the weather then?


It's always sunny in Philadelphia! Isn't it?
Quoting PlazaRed:

Como Estas?
Usted es el corazon de nosotros mas predido!
We had cause to worry with all this evidence of impending doom and drowning from this CO2 stuff we felt that you had baled out in favour of one of these newly discovered paradise planets a mere 600 light years away!
However an"Alma" restored is a soul regained!
Love that picture of the south coast of Greenland in Autumn!



Estoy muy bien, y gracias. Los argumentos que siguen!

No, I decided to stick around here until about 2100 until things really get bad.
I just wore a t-shirt outside in -12C weather (10F I think). To make it worse, it wasn't all that cold to me. I must either be crazy or ...I'm probably crazy and lucky I didn't die. XD
Quoting petewxwatcher:


It's always sunny in Philadelphia! Isn't it?


LOL. Never at the airport. I will only be there to change planes back to Fort Lauderdale. I have been away too long. I haven't had time to catch up on the weather. Thanks to TropicalAnalyst, I got the full details.
Quoting yqt1001:
I just wore a t-shirt outside in -12C weather (-2F I think). To make it worse, it wasn't all that cold to me. I must either be crazy or ...I'm probably crazy and lucky I didn't die. XD

:S
I've got to get to sleep. Have fun and stay out of trouble.
Now then we are missing the "Point" as Keeper would say and where are we on this peaceful December night? {Apart from frozen stupid on some forsaken hillside in Yorkshire, UK.?}
WHAT is really going on with those 10,000 scientists in San Francisco and what would be the loss to the world if a major earthquake struck right now? Leaving the "Jefe"{chief,} Dr. Masters, out of the equation of course!!
They {the 10,000} are all very quiet,at the moment that is!
Quoting Grothar:



Estoy muy bien, y gracias. Los argumentos que siguen!

No, I decided to stick around here until about 2100 until things really get bad.

Yo Tambien!
Quoting yqt1001:


No model support? A lot of models have it developing in 24 hours. It's unlikely that that would happen, and the origins of this is the same as our last two bust invests..90L and 99L, so it will probably follow the same path as those two.
By a lot of models do you mean just the NOGAPS and CMC? ECMWF, UKMET, and GFS do not develop this system.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Hi Gro.

I'm arguing with SLPBeater because he thinks that the system near the Leeward Islands would've gotten mentioned in the TWO if it were August/September, and he says that the NHC is being more conservative because it is off season, which just isn't true.

Why isn't it true?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Why isn't it true?

Why is it?
Quoting TomTaylor:
Why isn't it true?

But it wasn't August/September, at the end of the day, they are "conservatives," (they need to conserve there integrity?)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why is it?
Is it? Idk, I'm not claiming it is or isn't, I'm just wondering how you know they are or aren't more conservative in the off season
Quoting TomTaylor:
Is it? Idk, I'm not claiming it is or isn't, I'm just wondering how you know they are or aren't more conservative in the off season

What gives a reason to be is my question. I don't see why the National Hurricane Center would treat a system any differently because its the off-season.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Upper 30s and Low 40s ALLLLLLL day long here in SE TX, cloudy, gray, blustery day in the Lone Star State.

Another inch of rain yesterday, Trees, plants catching a break from the relentless heat and drought, but FAR from over
It has been clear here in South Central Texas all day but highs did not get out of the 30s, I just love cold weather, beats 110 that is for sure.
Just got back from the Bahmas today. If there's any weather, it must be way far south of Nassau. Just some scattered clouds with a high about 80. Was a little chilly at night with the sea breeze though. For those of you familiar with the Straw Market in Nassau, it burned down at 0330 Saturday morning. The front part was damaged by Hurricane Irene but the rear section of what's basically a giant tent was still operating. Two historic buildings to the rear were destroyed or heavily damaged, but the Royal Bahamas Fire Service did an amazing job stopping the fire before it spread to the rest of downtown. It was one hot fire. Very bad break for all those poor vendors just before Christmas. :(

Just dreary rain here in central Alabama. Started out at midnight with 65 degrees and we're now down to 54. Won't get cold enough to snow, but the wind chill starting tomorrow will make it feel cold enough to snow.
Update on Tropical Cyclones Alenga and Two-S.

Whoa...I forgot...Colorado State University (CSU) releases their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season predictions tomorrow.

North Korea Seen Advancing Work on ICBM Capable of Reaching U.S. Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2011

North Korea is advancing efforts to construct an ICBM that could strike the United States, the Washington Times on Tuesday quoted the Obama administration as stating recently (see GSN, Aug. 17).

http://gsn.nti.org/gsn/nw_20111206_4237.php

China's Hu urges navy to prepare for combat
By Robert Saiget | AFP %u2013 4 hrs ago

Chinese President Hu Jintao on Tuesday urged the navy to prepare for military combat, amid growing regional tensions over maritime disputes and a US campaign to assert itself as a Pacific power.

http://news.yahoo.com/chinas-hu-urges-navy-prepar e-combat-160509787.html

US Officials: Drone Was Gathering Intelligence When It Went Down in Iran

Tuesday, Dec. 6, 2011

By Marc Ambinder

WASHINGTON -- The super-secret drone that Iran claims to have recovered was on a CIA "Focal Point" mission, gathering intelligence and likely crashed though it remains uncertain whether it was able to self-destruct, U.S. officials told National Journal on Tuesday (see GSN, Dec. 5).

Controllers lost contact with the prized stealth unmanned aerial drone, the RQ-170 "Sentinel", last week over western Afghanistan, said one government official who spoke on condition of anonymity. Based on its projected glide path, officials assume it fell just inside the Iranian border.
TC Alenga

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 985.3mb/ 61.0kt

Raw T# 3.8
Adj T# 3.8
Final T# 3.8

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION
TC 02S

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.1 /1002.6mb/ 31.0kt

Raw T# 2.1
Adj T# 2.0
Final T# 1.6

Scene Type: CURVED BAND with 0.25 ARC in DK GRAY
Maximum CURVED BAND with 0.48 in DK GRAY at Lat: 18:19:11 S Lon: 64:44:23 E
December predictions for 2012!
CybrTeddy's first 2012 Atlantic Hurricane Season predictions - 12/6/11

14 named storms.
8 hurricanes.
4 major hurricanes.

This is based on the fact vertically instability might be lacking next year once again, that and we cannot rely on trough splits to boost our numbers again next year. I am willing to bet at least 5 of last years systems would not have been recognized if it was without satellite data.
02S really dont look like much...oh well, there will be more :D
It's a good thing Accuweather's forecast for tomorrow isn't likely, since earlier today they have been calling for winds 24 gusting to 88mph in the Orlando area tomorrow.
Quoting Grothar:
Hello!

Hey Grothar. We had a perfect day today in East Central Florida. It must have been in the 80s down there.
Taking into account that one image shows FMA (February-March-April) 2012, and the other covers AMJ (April-May-June) 2011, they look very similar.

Last year:



2012:

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What gives a reason to be is my question. I don't see why the National Hurricane Center would treat a system any differently because its the off-season.
They shouldn't treat classification any different, but I could see them being less active with percentages on storms that have a low chance of developing. It really isn't worth their time to put up near 0% or 10% circles during the off season when nothing will come out of it, although we did see a few of those situations during the regular season.
Found an interesting chart regarding El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):



NDJ = November (2011), December (2011), January
DJF = December (2011), January, February
JFM = January, February, March
FMA = February, March, April
MAM = March, April, May
AMJ = April, May, June
MJJ = May, June, July
JJA = June, July, August
JAS = July, August, September
ASO = August, September, October
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Found an interesting chat regarding El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO):



NDJ = November, December, January
DJF = December, January, February
JFM = January, February, March
FMA = February, March, April
MAM = March, April, May
AMJ = April, May, June
MJJ = May, June, July
JJA = June, July, August
JAS = July, August, September
ASO = August, September, October

I think you mean chart.
...and the current ENSO model predictions. They have us crossing the Neutral threshold in MAM (March-April-May), which we could extrapolate to the formation of El Nino by October/November of next season. However, when dealing with ENSO, that may not be such a good idea. ;)

Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

I think you mean chart.

Yeah, Yeah, I fixed it. =P
scientific discussion? where? all i see are belief systems and tropical paradises. the scientific method does not start out with how do i get the results i want? but rather, where will this lead me? it is so disingenuous to throw out climate data more than 100 years old. the squeaky wheel gets the grease, and if we let these street corner end of the worlders now scientists keep it up, we will lose more of our freedoms, more of our standard of living, less opportunities, and more wars. not only wars, but wars so devastating, it does not matter where the sea levels are. and in the end, it will not matter because mother nature and the earth is going to do what it is doing no matter how we change what we are doing. every human on the planet could disappear tomorrow and there will still be climate change.
Pleading with people to please believe that humans are not affecting the environment even though the scientific consensus is that we are sounds like pathetic to me. outvoted and we are supposed to feel sorry for you because of your whiney tone. Like a parent gives in to a kid because he/she won't shut up.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Taking into account that one image shows FMA (February-March-April) 2012, and the other covers AMJ (April-May-June) 2011, they look very similar.

Last year:



2012:

yeah we will see how these forecasts change as we get closer to next year's hurricane season. Although it is already showing that next year should be drier, particularly over the Caribbean, but also over the Atlantic ocean and African continent.
Quoting TomTaylor:
yeah we will see how these forecasts change as we get closer to next year's hurricane season. Although it is already showing that next year should be drier, particularly over the Caribbean, but also over the Atlantic ocean and African continent.

I don't think we'll see the 19 named storms we saw this year or last, but I think we'll somewhere between 15-18 named storms.
Quoting panthan63:
scientific discussion? where? all i see are belief systems and tropical paradises. the scientific method does not start out with how do i get the results i want? but rather, where will this lead me? it is so disingenuous to throw out climate data more than 100 years old. the squeaky wheel gets the grease, and if we let these street corner end of the worlders now scientists keep it up, we will lose more of our freedoms, more of our standard of living, less opportunities, and more wars. not only wars, but wars so devastating, it does not matter where the sea levels are. and in the end, it will not matter because mother nature and the earth is going to do what it is doing no matter how we change what we are doing. every human on the planet could disappear tomorrow and there will still be climate change.
Few things

This is a tropical weather blog, not a scientific discussion forum.

Secondly, the bold sentence could not be more wrong. Science has advanced our standard of living since day one and has also greatly expanded our freedoms. Furthermore, increasing our use of renewable energies would help to prevent wars as it would limit our dependence on foreign nations.

Third, I find it terribly ironic that you come here looking for scientific discussion when you can't even back up your claims with evidence.
Quoting Chicklit:
Pleading with people to please believe that humans are not affecting the environment even though the scientific consensus is that we are sounds like pathetic to me. outvoted and we are supposed to feel sorry for you because of your whiney tone. Like a parent gives in to a kid because he/she won't shut up.


i dont take a side here because im fed up with climate change crap. i will just say that it makes such a difference when you let the earths' creator lead the way you live.


Im not worried about anything.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I don't think we'll see the 19 named storms we saw this year or last, but I think we'll somewhere between 15-18 named storms.
We shall see, but as of right now I think it will be a struggle to reach those numbers. Right now I'm thinking in the neighborhood of 12-16, but I'll be watching the seasonal model forecasts, Atlantic SST anomalies, and progression of the ENSO.
Quoting TomTaylor:
We shall see, but as of right now I think it will be a struggle to reach 15 named storms. Right now I'm thinking in the neighborhood of 12-16.

Just curious, but based on what?
Nevermind.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

What gives a reason to be is my question. I don't see why the National Hurricane Center would treat a system any differently because its the off-season.
Well, perhaps because one of the main factors for considering the potentiality of a system to develop, isn't there;is call climatology.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #8
TEMPETE TROPICALE MODEREE ALENGA (01-20112012)
4:30 AM RET December 7 2011
==============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Moderate Tropical Storm Alenga (995 hPa) located at 14.5S 89.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 40 with gusts of 60 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
================
30 NM from the center extending up to 40 NM in the northern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
50 NM from the center extending up to 60 NM in the northern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: T3.0/3.0/S0.0/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.3S 91.0E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
24 HRS: 16.2S 93.8E - 45 knots (Tempête Tropicale Moderée)
48 HRS: 19.2S 99.1E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
72 HRS: 20.7S 99.9E - 30 knots (Depression Extratropicale)

Additional Information
======================

On infrared imagery, Alenga shows a very cold central dense overcast like feature (although this is used for visible imagery) that has gain in size during the night (up to 160 NM in diameter). 2008z TRMM microwave imagery was useful to locate the center and to show that the system seems to still suffer from a lack of inner core organization, mainly in the low level and in the eastern semi-circle. Consequently and although the overall pattern is similar or slightly better than 24 hours ago. The system is maintain at the same intensity than previously.

Alenga seems now to speed up towards the east southeast as it is catching within the west northwesterly steering flow that exists ahead of a mid level trough transiting in its south. No major change from the 1200z numerical weather prediction cycle for the track forecast. All guidance continue to be tightly packed until day 3.

The system has still a small opportunity for some strengthening over warm sea surface temperature and an improving upper level divergence mainly n the southern semi-circle. On and after Thursday, system should undergo a moderate west northwesterly vertical wind shear and move over cooler waters. Intensity is expected to decrease faster and should begin its extratropical transition.

THIS IS THE LAST ADVISORY ISSUED BY RSMC REUNION FOR THIS SYSTEM. NEXT ADVISORY ISSUED BY TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTER PERTH.
Quoting HuracanTaino:
Well, perhaps because one of the main factors for considering the potentiality of a system to develop, isn't there;is call climatology.

Yeah, but a system with a chance of development should be treated as such, whether it is in July/August or November/December.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #4
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
4:30 AM RET December 7 2011
==============================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1000 hPa) located at 16.0S 67.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.9S 66.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 15.9S 65.9E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 15.7S 64.0E - 20 knots (Low Pressure

Additional Information
======================

No significant burst of deep convection has occurred close to the center last night. Re-analysis of past track shows that the low level circulation center is now tracking slowly northwestward.

It appears unlikely that the system deepens significantly due to its ill-defined cloud pattern and give the fact that the shear should now start to strengthen. Intensity forecast is lowered and this is the main change from this advisory.

The system, as a filling low, should pass well north of Rodrigues Island Thursday night or Friday.
Hey guys, I am working a lightning claim in Dallas, and I can't find any "lightning maps" available anywhere. Does anyone know if something like this exists? The date of loss is 11/25.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just curious, but based on what?
Nevermind.
lol

Well mostly based off of cooler Atlantic SSTs. SSTs anomalies and anomalies relative to other basins really make all the difference. Ocean holds way more heat than the atmosphere, therefore it is the strongest driver of weather/climate. After all, the ENSO, AMO, PDO, and IOD are all measures of SST anomalies.

The NAO/AO and QBO are also things to consider. La Nina tends to favor a positive AO and NAO. Positive NAO leads to a stronger subtropical ridge, stronger winds over the tropical Atlantic, making for more upwelling/overturning, and also more evaporative cooling. QBO should be in the easterly phase. QBO doesn't seem to have much of an influence anymore, but it is said that the westerly phase is more conducive for greater storm activity and intensity in the Atlantic.
guys in JUNE this year models showed neutral throught the 2011 season. 3 weeks later a random weak la nina starts reforming... i dont expect to see another one once the one we have now dies. talked to a couple tropical meteorologists. they say the the E pac will be warming up not el nino but neutral will stay for a while. el nino is not out of the freshold but we will find out in march because in early 09 models already showed el nino forming.... im calling neutral to stay. not really a pleasent enso condition. katrina rita wilma charley ivan frances ike gustav i could go on...
For 2012 I'm thinking:

13-16 named storms
9-10 hurricanes
4-5 major hurricanes

Why? Just basing this off of the fact that 3rd year La Ninas/neutrals tend to be based around the Caribbean, and the lack of heat released in the Caribbean could allow for an excessive amount of storms to form down there. After looking at maps of seasons and the seasons before them, the least active area of one season tends to be a more active area of the next.

2010 was based more in the deep tropics while 2011 was based more in the subtropical areas.
2008 was mostly a Caribbean-GoM season, and 2009 was mostly a (weak) CV season with Ida being the only real Caribbean storm. 2011 was similar in this aspect, so seeing a 2010-esque Caribbean season for 2012 seems possible, while seeing a quiet (but stronger) CV one also seems possible.

We'll see, but Rina is not enough to lower the Caribbean SSTs to a point where we wont see a few hurricanes form in there in my opinion.
Quoting TomTaylor:
lol

Well mostly based off of cooler Atlantic SSTs. SSTs anomalies and anomalies relative to other basins really make all the difference. Ocean holds way more heat than the atmosphere, therefore it is the strongest driver of weather/climate. After all, the ENSO, AMO, PDO, and IOD are all measures of SST anomalies.

The NAO/AO and QBO are also things to consider. La Nina tends to favor a positive AO and NAO. Positive NAO leads to a stronger subtropical ridge, stronger winds over the tropical Atlantic, making for more upwelling/overturning, and also more evaporative cooling. QBO should be in the easterly phase. QBO doesn't seem to have much of an influence anymore, but it is said that the westerly phase is more conducive for greater storm activity and intensity in the Atlantic.

Which is why we will probably see more of a close to home hurricane season as opposed to a Cape-Verde one.
Quoting yqt1001:
For 2012 I'm thinking:

13-16 named storms
9-10 hurricanes
4-5 major hurricanes

Why? Just basing this off of the fact that 3rd year La Ninas/neutrals tend to be based around the Caribbean, and the lack of heat released in the Caribbean could allow for an excessive amount of storms to form down there. After looking at maps of seasons and the seasons before them, the least active area of one season tends to be a more active area of the next.

2010 was based more in the deep tropics while 2011 was based more in the subtropical areas.
2008 was mostly a Caribeban-GoM season, and 2009 was mostly a (weak) CV season with Ida being the only real Caribbean storm. 2011 was similar in this aspect, so seeing a 2010-esque Caribbean season for 2012 seems possible, while seeing a quiet (but stronger) CV one also seems possible.

We'll see, but Rina is not enough to lower the Caribbean SSTs to a point where we wont see a few hurricanes form in there in my opinion.
Have to disagree with the bold


Here are three 3rd year La Nina hurricane season plots

1956




1975




2000







2000 wasn't totally a 3rd year La Nina but I figured I'd throw it in there since otherwise I'd only have two years. Anyway, as you can see, activity does not tend to be focused in the Caribbean during 3rd year La Ninas.
Quoting TomTaylor:
Have to disagree with the bold


Here are three 3rd year La Nina hurricane season plots

1956




1975




2000







2000 wasn't totally a 3rd year La Nina but I figured I'd throw it in there since otherwise I'd only have two years. Anyway, as you can see, activity does not tend to be focused in the Caribbean during 3rd year La Ninas.


There really isn't enough seasons to get the data from, so I'm pretty foolish for saying that. Otherwise, I still think that the Caribbean will be the center of the excitement of 2012.

notice on the south western portion of south america the cold tounge is gone just warm water. this was the collapse of the 2007/2008 la nina which left the 2008 season FULLY NEUTRAL NO LA NINA AGAIN and after that we know 2009 had a rapid warm up which left us with el nino for the 2009 season season

now look at us

same thing. expect la nina to maintain itself to march then slowly weaken and expect neutral to stay i would say from the spring of 2012 to at least the fall and from there we could get hey another la nina or a major warm up into el nino who knows all im saying is the warm tounge points to NO LA NINA for a while so the one we have now should be our last for a while
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which is why we will probably see more of a close to home hurricane season as opposed to a Cape-Verde one.


:(

i like my Cape Verde hurricanes...they stick around for over a week....sometimes they get big and purty...this is sad news for me xD
HEY GUYS!!!

New blog for all the tropic lovers out there, or if you want something new to read lol

Link to it
Dr. Tony Bongevine's early 2012 forecast:

19 named storms

8 hurricanes

5 major hurricanes


and, the remnnants of Jose will continue to be a factor.

Forecaster of the Year Prediction: Avila in a photo finish over Berg.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Which is why we will probably see more of a close to home hurricane season as opposed to a Cape-Verde one.
relative to last year? yeah probably if the NAO stays positive most of the winter
Quoting disasterrelief:
Hey guys, I am working a lightning claim in Dallas, and I can't find any "lightning maps" available anywhere. Does anyone know if something like this exists? The date of loss is 11/25.


I looked at WeatherUnderground radar archives. Like go to Nexrad for Dallas, zoom in how you want it. Then put the date in on the lower right. Damage most likely occurred in the early hours on 11-26, not the 25th. Unfortunately I don't think lightning shows up in the archive..
Quoting yqt1001:


There really isn't enough seasons to get the data from, so I'm pretty foolish for saying that. Otherwise, I still think that the Caribbean will be the center of the excitement of 2012.


Yeah, no worries. It is true that La Ninas do tend to favor more activity in the Caribbean than El Ninos do.
My predictions for the december edition of the 2012 season is:
15-16 Named storms
6-7 Hurricanes
2-4 Major Hurricanes
0-1 Category 5's(you can never rule it out, you know?)
Quoting disasterrelief:
Hey guys, I am working a lightning claim in Dallas, and I can't find any "lightning maps" available anywhere. Does anyone know if something like this exists? The date of loss is 11/25.



http://thunderstorm.vaisala.com/documents/STRIKEf ax.pdf

http://www.vaisala.com/en/products/thunderstorman dlightningdetectionsystems/Pages/NLDN.aspx
Yeah, no worries. It is true that La Ninas do tend to favor more activity in the Caribbean than El Ninos do

El nino's bring east coast riders and small cape verde systems (sometimes).
Strong La ninas like 2010 bring troughiness and make most of all the hurricanes and cape verde storms out to sea.

Neutral and Weaker La ninas~ well UH OH
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Yeah, no worries. It is true that La Ninas do tend to favor more activity in the Caribbean than El Ninos do

El nino's bring east coast riders and small cape verde systems (sometimes).
Strong La ninas like 2010 bring troughiness and make most of all the hurricanes and cape verde storms out to sea.

Neutral and Weaker La ninas~ well UH OH


Strong la ninas also bring West bounders like Dean 07, Felix 07, ETC Straight west... rare for them to turn north...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Whoa...I forgot...Colorado State University (CSU) releases their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season predictions tomorrow.



Who cares? December forecasts have no skill.
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
Yeah, no worries. It is true that La Ninas do tend to favor more activity in the Caribbean than El Ninos do

El nino's bring east coast riders and small cape verde systems (sometimes).
Strong La ninas like 2010 bring troughiness and make most of all the hurricanes and cape verde storms out to sea.

Neutral and Weaker La ninas~ well UH OH
I plan to research ENSO's influence on track and formation points more in depth over the coming days. So far, after just looking at a few websites, the only conclusive thing I have found so far is that there tends to be less activity over the deep tropics during El Nino years. This being due to higher vertical wind shear.
Uniontown, KY is fighting flood tonight with broken pumps..

Outer Banks residents hear options to repair N.C. 12

9 Bits and Scenes at a Global Huddle on a Grave Crisis

Earth Networks Announces Major Expansion of Canadian Weather Monitoring and Lightning Network

As much as 45 tons of radioactive water leaked from Japan's crippled Fukushima nuclear station over the weekend and some may have reached the sea, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said. The leakage shows the company known as Tepco is still struggling to control the disaster nine months after an earthquake and tsunami wrecked the plant. The water contained 1.8 millisieverts per hour of gamma radiation and 110 millisieverts of beta radiation, Tepco said in an e-mailed statement Saturday. "The source of the beta radiation in the water is likely to include strontium 90, which if absorbed in the body through eating tainted seaweed or fish, accumulates in bone and can cause cancer," said Tetsuo Ito, the head of Kinki University's Atomic Energy Research Institute. Since the March 11 disaster, the utility has reported several leaks of radiated water into the sea, though its estimates of their size has been disputed. In October, a French nuclear research institute said the Fukushima plant was responsible for the biggest discharge of radioactive material into the ocean in history. Tepco is still checking whether the water reached the sea, spokeswoman Chie Hosoda said by phone today. The water leaked from a desalination unit and through a cracked concrete wall into a gutter that drains into the Pacific Ocean, she said. Radiated water has now been pumped out of the building where it was leaking from. The study by the French government-funded Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety said radioactive cesium that flowed into the sea from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant was 20 times the amount estimated by Tepco. Prolonged exposure to high levels of radiation can cause leukemia and other forms of cancer, according to the World Nuclear Association.

Antarctic's hidden world revealed

Nuclear missile debacle in ND.

& for something that just looks really neat..NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme ultraviolet flash from a C6-class solar flare in the sunspot's magnetic canopy during the late hours of Dec. 5th.


Someone looking for this? ;) (Tom)
this can help you out with research, doing some myself now ;)
WOW, i find this hard to believe...
1969 a weak el nino, produced 18 storms, and CAMILLE, the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin... 190 MPH!!! Insane
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
WOW, i find this hard to believe...
1969 a weak el nino, produced 18 storms, and CAMILLE, the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin... 190 MPH!!! Insane


Modiki El Nino, most likely.
Weak El Ninos, really dont influence the #'s for the ATL season just more of the track, which brings most storms right up near the Carolinas and then out to sea, or if the storm makes it to the caribbean, the US screwed... ;) El ninos typically bring a neutral pattern type track
Skyepony Post #311 - Interesting links; thank you.
We can narrow down the analogs according to the Pattern im think we'll be in and picked some analogs i think that could be accurate from the graph:
1996
2008
1968


Lol, and i find it funny, how they have almost nothing in common with each other track-wise, but at this time we fit with 2008's pattern best... 96 is also a pretty good analog year...
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
WOW, i find this hard to believe...
1969 a weak el nino, produced 18 storms, and CAMILLE, the strongest hurricane in the Atlantic basin... 190 MPH!!! Insane


in the book i read, a policeman had an anemometer on his police boat(which was washed onshore of course) it had a recording of 10 minutes of 201mph windspeeds.
As soon as 2012's season ends El nino should be revving up and the ATL will be quiet for 2013... 14' well you got me there ;)
Beautiful Sunset I took video of Link
Quoting HurricaneDean07:
As soon as 2012's season ends El nino should be revving up and the ATL will be quiet for 2013... 14' well you got me there ;)


i tracked an El Nino the first time i ever tracked the tropics...i had a lil guidance if where to get som things(from crappy media products) i think i enjoyed Bill and Ida the best. Ida was cool because i had the NHC tracking map, with Bill i really didnt know when to get an update and took what i got when i got it xD
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.8 / 985.2mb/ 61.0kt

Raw T# 3.7
Adj T# 3.7
Final T# 3.7

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Weakening Flag: ON <-----------lol
CI# /Pressure /Vmax
1.9 /1003.4mb /29.0kt

Raw T# 2.5
Adj T# 2.2
FInal T# 1.9

Scene Type: CURVED BAND...

Weakening Flag: OFF <-----------LOL, oh how intensity varies...
TC Alegna:
and, our little TD 02S:
YES. Ascat got Alenga
And this is what i was trying to get across to TropicalAnalystwx13.....convection has sustained for about 12 hours(not good enough) LLCC seen here. ANYWAYS. here ya're
Man George Strait knows how to make music...
Quoting SPLbeater:
Man George Strait knows how to make music...


Coming from someone who utterly despises the country genre, I agree.
Well, I would rather be it be warmer than colder! Tough to grow plants in an ice age, but here in SWFL, it's been cooler than normal for the past 5 years during the dry season. Lived here for 30 years. JMO
331. JLPR2
Quoting SPLbeater:
And this is what i was trying to get across to TropicalAnalystwx13.....convection has sustained for about 12 hours(not good enough) LLCC seen here. ANYWAYS. here ya're


That's one interesting post-season disturbance.


The sad thing is that over 50% of our voters believe the conservative line that global warming is a liberal scam. When you point to the scientists they are conveniently labeled as liberals too. Being able to do anything at all about the human element in global warming will be almost impossible unless you can prove absolute danger for that over 50% or their children. Otherwise the heads are in the sand.
Quoting rlwalker:
The sad thing is that over 50% of our voters believe the conservative line that global warming is a liberal scam. When you point to the scientists they are conveniently labeled as liberals too. Being able to do anything at all about the human element in global warming will be almost impossible unless you can prove absolute danger for that over 50% or their children. Otherwise the heads are in the sand.


That's how humanity operates. Unless it personally affects us, we just don't give a damn.
This report from Bill Gray at Colorado State University won't do any good to sell global warming. He is saying that the entire warning is not true.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Doc uments/Publications/gray2011.pdf
Quoting rlwalker:
This report from Bill Gray at Colorado State University won't do any good to sell global warming. He is saying that the entire warning is not true.
http://hurricane.atmos.colostate.edu/Includes/Doc uments/Publications/gray2011.pdf


While I understand that Gray is the exact antithesis of a global warming advocate, a brief glance at that thesis reveals that he is only attempting to falsify a possible relationship between anthropogenic global warming and tropical cyclone frequency and intensity, not the theory as a whole.

Just saying, you need to be more precise.
18 Tropical Storms
11 hurricanes
4 majors

Is this season neutral...? If it is these are the numbers I have come up with. Wasnt 2005 neutral?
Quoting Dragod66:
18 Tropical Storms
11 hurricanes
4 majors

Is this season neutral...? If it is these are the numbers I have come up with. Wasnt 2005 neutral?


2011 was a weak La Nina.
Interesting. A feature unlikely to develop, but unique nonetheless.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #5
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
10:30 AM RET December 7 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1001 hPa) located at 16.3S 67.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west at 4 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 16.2S 66.7E - 20 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
24 HRS: 16.1S 65.9E - 20 knots (Low Pressure)

Additional Information
======================

Temporarily burst of deep convection has occurred at the end of the night within the southern part of the circulation, but vertical wind shear is expected to strengthen significantly today. The low level circulation center is now tracking slowly globally westwards. It is forecast to go on slowly west northwestward and weaken.

The system, as a filling low, should pass well north of Rodrigues Island Friday.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
3:00 PM WST December 7 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 14.3S 89.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.9S 91.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.0S 94.1E- 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 18.5S 98.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 20.1S 101.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga has been located by visible and microwave imagery near 90E.

Intensity of 55 knots based on CI of 4.0 from a wrap of 1.1. The system is currently in low shear ahead of a trough that will increase shear during Thursday and Friday. Sea surface temperatures are currently favorable but become less so as the system approaches 18S. The intensity is expected to be maintained or slowly increase during the next 12 to 24 hours before the system weakens, expected to fall below TC intensity as the system gets to 100E later on Friday. The motion of the system is expected to continue to be east to southeast over the next few days under the influence of NW steering due to the mid latitude trough.
Listened to a local radio talk show last nite, and the
was greatest lies, very interesting, so I'm going to ask you folks what the greatest lies are?

Number 1. lie was the Kennedy assassination.
Light snow in Memphis heading our way this am... time for some hot cocoa and coffee!
Wind chill about 22 degrees, kind of day I'd like to stay home curled up on the couch with a good book. Everyone have a great Wednesday.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #9
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
3:00 PM WST December 7 2011
==============================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 14.3S 89.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 7 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
50 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 14.9S 91.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.0S 94.1E- 65 knots (CAT 3)
48 HRS: 18.5S 98.7E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
72 HRS: 20.1S 101.0E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga has been located by visible and microwave imagery near 90E.

Intensity of 55 knots based on CI of 4.0 from a wrap of 1.1. The system is currently in low shear ahead of a trough that will increase shear during Thursday and Friday. Sea surface temperatures are currently favorable but become less so as the system approaches 18S. The intensity is expected to be maintained or slowly increase during the next 12 to 24 hours before the system weakens, expected to fall below TC intensity as the system gets to 100E later on Friday. The motion of the system is expected to continue to be east to southeast over the next few days under the influence of NW steering due to the mid latitude trough.






TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - WESTERN REGION
Issued by PERTH TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0710 UTC 07/12/2011
Name: Tropical Cyclone Alenga
Identifier: 01U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 14.3S
Longitude: 89.9E
Location Accuracy: within 20 nm [35 km]
Movement Towards: east southeast [121 deg]
Speed of Movement: 7 knots [13 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 986 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 90 nm [165 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 25 nm [45 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT:D0.5/6HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1006 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 350 nm [650 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 07/1800: 14.9S 91.6E: 050 [095]: 060 [110]: 983
+24: 08/0600: 16.0S 94.1E: 080 [150]: 065 [120]: 981
+36: 08/1800: 17.3S 96.7E: 110 [210]: 050 [095]: 991
+48: 09/0600: 18.5S 98.7E: 145 [270]: 040 [075]: 996
+60: 09/1800: 19.4S 100.2E: 190 [355]: 030 [055]: 1001
+72: 10/0600: 20.1S 101.0E: 240 [445]: 030 [055]: 1001
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Alenga has been located by visible and microwave imagery near
90E.
Intensity of 55 knots based on CI of 4.0 from a wrap of 1.1. The system is
currently in low shear ahead of a trough that will increase shear during
Thursday and Friday. Sea surface temperatures are currently favourable but
become less so as the system approaches 18S. The intensity is expected to be
maintained or slowly increase during the next 12 to 24 hours before the system
weakens, expected to fall below TC intensity as the system gets to 100E later on
Friday.
The motion of the system is expected to continue to be east to southeast over
the next few days under the influence of NW steering due to the mid latitude
trough.
Quoting Skyepony:
Uniontown, KY is fighting flood tonight with broken pumps..

Outer Banks residents hear options to repair N.C. 12

9 Bits and Scenes at a Global Huddle on a Grave Crisis

Earth Networks Announces Major Expansion of Canadian Weather Monitoring and Lightning Network

a href="http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/site/?pageid=ev ent_desc&edis_id=ED-20111205-33278-JPN" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" rel="nofollow">As much as 45 tons of radioactive water leaked from Japan's crippled Fukushima nuclear station over the weekend and some may have reached the sea, Tokyo Electric Power Co. said. The leakage shows the company known as Tepco is still struggling to control the disaster nine months after an earthquake and tsunami wrecked the plant. The water contained 1.8 millisieverts per hour of gamma radiation and 110 millisieverts of beta radiation, Tepco said in an e-mailed statement Saturday. "The source of the beta radiation in the water is likely to include strontium 90, which if absorbed in the body through eating tainted seaweed or fish, accumulates in bone and can cause cancer," said Tetsuo Ito, the head of Kinki University's Atomic Energy Research Institute. Since the March 11 disaster, the utility has reported several leaks of radiated water into the sea, though its estimates of their size has been disputed. In October, a French nuclear research institute said the Fukushima plant was responsible for the biggest discharge of radioactive material into the ocean in history. Tepco is still checking whether the water reached the sea, spokeswoman Chie Hosoda said by phone today. The water leaked from a desalination unit and through a cracked concrete wall into a gutter that drains into the Pacific Ocean, she said. Radiated water has now been pumped out of the building where it was leaking from. The study by the French government-funded Institute for Radiological Protection and Nuclear Safety said radioactive cesium that flowed into the sea from the Fukushima Dai-Ichi nuclear plant was 20 times the amount estimated by Tepco. Prolonged exposure to high levels of radiation can cause leukemia and other forms of cancer, according to the World Nuclear Association.

a href="http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environmen t-15735625" target="_blank" onclick="if(!checkUrl(this.href)) return false;" rel="nofollow">Antarctic's hidden world revealed

Nuclear missile debacle in ND.

& for something that just looks really neat..NASA's Solar Dynamics Observatory recorded this extreme ultraviolet flash from a C6-class solar flare in the sunspot's magnetic canopy during the late hours of Dec. 5th.


Another link with video's of the radioactive slag.
CSU releases their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season predictions today...Should be interesting.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
CSU releases their 2012 Atlantic hurricane season predictions today...Should be interesting.


I agree! If we get a neutral pattern then I think the US is in for it (BIG TIME). However if El-Nino sets in then we could have another 2009 season.



Rainy times about to settle in across the eastern half of FL.NWS in Melbourne better wake up as they maybe looking at a busted forecast this weekend.



Quoting StormTracker2K:


I agree! If we get a neutral pattern then I think the US is in for it (BIG TIME). However if El-Nino sets in then we could have another 2009 season.




An El Nino season next year is highly unlikely..It'll probably be Neutral by May or so, which would increase hurricane season activity.
Looks like a completely different area of disturbed weather now opposed to yesterday. I would mention it now.

Note: The extratropical low north of all this convection is expected to combine with it over the next day or two, and then the system as a whole should move west/southwest.
Mauritius Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #6
PERTURBATION TROPICALE (02-20112012)
16:30 PM RET December 7 2011
==============================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Tropical Disturbance 02 (1002 hPa) located at 16.0S 67.3E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 with gusts of 40 knots. The disturbance is reported as moving west northwest at 3 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T1.5/2.0/W0.5/12 HRS

Additional Information
======================

The system northwesterly sheared, the low level circulation center is now completely exposed. The low level circulation center is now tracking slowly globally westward. It is forecast to go on slowly west northwestward while filling up.

The system, as a filling low, should pass well north of Rodriques Island Friday.

LAST WARNING ABOUT THIS SYSTEM UNLESS REGENERATION
WxGeekVA 2012 season predictions

13-17 named storms
6-9 hurricanes
4 major hurricanes
As long as we're in the active AMO (Atlantic Multidecal Oscillation), more relatively active hurricane seasons should be expected. An active AMO promotes lower wind shear, warmer sea surface temperatures, and low sea level pressures which all add up to make an active season.
I'm forecasting 11 to 13 systems 6 to 8 hurricanes with 2 to 3 majors. All indications are pointing to a weak el-nino developing either Sept or Oct and if this does happen then the end of the season could be quiet.
im not gonna make a prediction, and i wont be wrong or right xD

I turned on my computer this morning, and almost had a tragedy: CIMSS wasnt loading, lol
TC Alegna, 103000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.7 / 987.2mb/ 59.0kt

Raw T# 3.4
Adj T# 3.4
Final T# 3.4

Scene Type: UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION


TD TWO 103000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
2.2 /1004.9mb/ 32.0kt

Raw T# 1.5
Adj T# 1.5
Final T# 1.5

Scene Type: SHEAR
Corpus Christi, Texas (Airport)
Clear
26 °F
Clear
Windchill: 19 °F
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 21 °F
Wind: 6 mph from the West
Pressure: 30.45 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
9:00 PM WST December 7 2011
==============================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 14.6S 90.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.5S 92.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.8S 95.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 19.0S 99.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.1S 99.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by visible and infra-red satellite imagery over the past 6 hours. Visible imagery during the day showed a curved band pattern with a 1.1 wrap but in recent images a wrap of between 0.8 and 0.9 was obtained, yielding a DT of 3.5. FT was 3.5 but CI held at 4.0. Intensity maintained at 55 knots [10 minute average].

Recent microwave imagery showed a decrease in deep convection around the low level circulation center

The system has been in a low shear environment and CIMSS shear at 12 UTC was about 3 knots from the northwest. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.

NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the next 48 hours due to the upper trough. In the longer term the weakening system is likely to be steered towards the west southwest by a ridge and gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly pressure gradient.

Alenga may itensify a little overnight over the diurnally favourable period. There is still a chance that it may reach category 3 intensity but the approach of dry air from the southwest and increasing shear are likely to limit its intensity.
Quoting RitaEvac:
Corpus Christi, Texas (Airport)
Clear
26 F
Clear
Windchill: 19 F
Humidity: 81%
Dew Point: 21 F
Wind: 6 mph from the West
Pressure: 30.45 in (Rising)
Visibility: 10.0 miles


I wish it would cool off here! High of 84 expected here in Orlando but it is supposed to cool off for about 18 hours or so starting tonight before the wind shifts back from the NE and pushes warm back over FL from the Atlantic.
Overall warm pattern expected across the SE US!

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #10
TROPICAL CYCLONE ALENGA (01U)
9:00 PM WST December 7 2011
==============================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Cyclone Alenga, Category Two (986 hPa) located at 14.6S 90.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 55 with gusts of 75 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving east southeast at 8 knots.

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
================
90 NM from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T3.5/4.0/D0.5/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 15.5S 92.4E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
24 HRS: 16.8S 95.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 19.0S 99.1E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS: 20.1S 99.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
======================

Tropical Cyclone Alenga was located by visible and infra-red satellite imagery over the past 6 hours. Visible imagery during the day showed a curved band pattern with a 1.1 wrap but in recent images a wrap of between 0.8 and 0.9 was obtained, yielding a DT of 3.5. FT was 3.5 but CI held at 4.0. Intensity maintained at 55 knots [10 minute average].

Recent microwave imagery showed a decrease in deep convection around the low level circulation center

The system has been in a low shear environment and CIMSS shear at 12 UTC was about 3 knots from the northwest. Shear is forecast to increase in the next 24 to 48 hours as an upper low and trough approach from the west.

NWP guidance is quite consistent with general southeast motion likely over the next 48 hours due to the upper trough. In the longer term the weakening system is likely to be steered towards the west southwest by a ridge and gales may persist to the south of the system in the tight easterly pressure gradient.

Alenga may itensify a little overnight over the diurnally favourable period. There is still a chance that it may reach category 3 intensity but the approach of dry air from the southwest and increasing shear are likely to limit its intensity.


Japan quake caused double-wave tsunami

THE massive earthquake off the coast of Japan in March caused a rare "merging tsunami" in which two waves combined to amplify the destruction after landfall, according to NASA.

For the first time ever, US and European radar satellites captured images of the two wave fronts, confirming the existence of the long-hypothesised process, which forms a "single, double-high wave far out at sea."

"This wave was capable of travelling long distances without losing power. Ocean ridges and undersea mountain chains pushed the waves together along certain directions from the tsunami's origin," NASA said in a statement on its website.

"The discovery helps explain how tsunamis can cross ocean basins to cause massive destruction at some locations while leaving others unscathed," it said, adding that the research could help to improve forecasts.

"It was a one-in-10-million chance that we were able to observe this double wave with satellites," said Tony Song, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which partnered with Ohio State University for the study.

"Researchers have suspected for decades that such 'merging tsunamis' might have been responsible for the 1960 Chilean tsunami that killed about 200 people in Japan and Hawaii, but nobody had definitively observed a merging tsunami until now."

The 9.0-magnitude underwater earthquake and tsunami on March 11 left 20,000 people dead or missing, devastated large areas of northeastern Japan and sparked a nuclear crisis at the Fukushima nuclear plant.
Quoting AussieStorm:
Japan quake caused double-wave tsunami

THE massive earthquake off the coast of Japan in March caused a rare "merging tsunami" in which two waves combined to amplify the destruction after landfall, according to NASA.

For the first time ever, US and European radar satellites captured images of the two wave fronts, confirming the existence of the long-hypothesised process, which forms a "single, double-high wave far out at sea."

"This wave was capable of travelling long distances without losing power. Ocean ridges and undersea mountain chains pushed the waves together along certain directions from the tsunami's origin," NASA said in a statement on its website.

"The discovery helps explain how tsunamis can cross ocean basins to cause massive destruction at some locations while leaving others unscathed," it said, adding that the research could help to improve forecasts.

"It was a one-in-10-million chance that we were able to observe this double wave with satellites," said Tony Song, of NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory, which partnered with Ohio State University for the study.

"Researchers have suspected for decades that such 'merging tsunamis' might have been responsible for the 1960 Chilean tsunami that killed about 200 people in Japan and Hawaii, but nobody had definitively observed a merging tsunami until now."

The 9.0-magnitude underwater earthquake and tsunami on March 11 left 20,000 people dead or missing, devastated large areas of northeastern Japan and sparked a nuclear crisis at the Fukushima nuclear plant.


Wow! Thanks for sharing!
Below is a link which I have used and trust:

http://www.avaaz.org/en/the_planet_is_dying/?cSlh ncb

It is a currently active petition, upon which I was approximately the 365,xxx signatory.


Quote from the site:

"The UN treaty on climate change -- our best hope for action -- expires next year. But a... coalition of oil-captured countries is trying to kill it forever. It's staggeringly difficult to believe: they are trading short term profits for the survival of our natural world.

The EU, Brazil and China are all on the fence -- they are not slaves to oil companies the way the US is, but they need to hear a massive call to action from people before they really lead financially and politically to save the UN treaty. The world is gathered at the climate summit for the next 3 days to make the big decision. Let's send our leaders a massive call to stand up to big oil and save the planet -- an Avaaz team at the summit will deliver our call directly. Sign the petition..."


Any comments or questions which you may wish to direct to ME...
please send via Wumail.

CRS
be nice if there was a tropical post to read :/

im bored
Atlantic
i just engulfed a pound of crackerz. where is everybody
Re 365. thanks for sharing. Signed.

Here across the big pond in good ol' UK the weather warnings are popping up one after another. We have a level 2 Cold Weather Alert and Red Alert for High winds. Red is the highest level and quite rare, only used a few times a year. BBC Scotland warns of travel disruptions, power cuts, damage to property. It's supposed to hit around rush hour so commuters will have a hard time tomorrow. The low pressure system is forecast to be 965 mb deep or less.
Even down here in Wales I expect winds ranging 50-60 mph.
GOES news

"On December 6, 2011 at 1545z, GOES-15 took its first infrared image as the operational geostationary satellite positioned over the Pacific - called GOES-West."
372. wxmod

In the north half of this photo of the Eastern Pacific are tons of ship trails, some a hundred miles wide and a thousand miles long. This affects the weather in a big way, all over the world. Since we're into predictions here, I predict that the Colorado River drainage will get plenty of snow and everybody else will get a drought.
Colorado State Univeristy is, indeed, out with its 2012 hurricane forecast. It's a fascinating read with lots of detailed infor for the TC-deprived. Dr Gray and his team say one of the following scenarios will play out:

1. THC circulation becomes unusually strong in 2012 and no El Niño event occurs (resulting in a seasonal average net tropical cyclone (NTC) activity of ~ 180) – 15% chance.
2. THC continues in the above-average condition it has been in since 1995 and no El Niño develops (NTC ~ 140) – 45% chance.
3. THC continues in above-average condition it has been in since 1995 with the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 75) – 30% chance.
4. THC becomes weaker and there is the development of a significant El Niño (NTC ~ 40) – 10% chance.

And then they go on to state the following:


Typically, seasons with the above-listed NTC values have TC activity as follows:
180 NTC – 14-17 named storms, 9-11 hurricanes, 4-5 major hurricanes
140 NTC – 12-15 named storms, 7-9 hurricanes, 3-4 major hurricanes
75 NTC – 8-11 named storms, 3-5 hurricanes, 1-2 major hurricanes
40 NTC – 5-7 named storms, 2-3 hurricanes, 0-1 major hurricanes

So there you have it: 2012 will see a count between 5-2-0 and 17-11-5, with a most likely chance of 13-8-4. Have fun with that. ;-)

For what it's worth, they also changed their climatology to the following:

1950-2000 Mean in parenthesis; 1981-2010 median
Named Storms: (9.6) 12.0
Named Storm Days: (49.1) 60.1
Hurricanes: (5.9) 6.5
Hurricane Days: (24.5) 21.3
Major Hurricanes: (2.3) 2.0
Major Hurricane Days: (5.0) 3.9
Accumulated Cyclone Energy: (96) 92
Net Tropical Cyclone Activity: (100) 103
Why is everyone still here? Dr. Masters has a new blog up. ;-)
Thanks for sharing,would love to give visit this place.Seeing polar bears so closely would be great fun.
Zoo Management