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Climate change consensus study examined

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:08 PM GMT on June 21, 2006

I've had several people ask about the study Al Gore talked about in his movie, which found no scientific papers disputing the reality of human-caused climate change over the past ten years. Well, to be sure, there have been a few papers disputing the reality of human-caused climate change published in the past ten years, but they didn't happen to have the key words "global climate change" included in their citations. The study Gore cites was published in December 2004 in Science magazine by Naomi Oreskes, a professor at UC San Diego. The article examined peer-reviewed studies in the world's major scientific journals between 1993 and 2003 containing the phrase "global climate change" as keywords. Oreskes found that 75% of the 928 articles with those key words in their citations agreed with the consensus position stated by the UN's panel on climate change, that the observed global warming over the past 50 years has been caused in part by human activity. The other 25% of the papers took no position, and none of the papers disagreed with the consensus view. While the study is not a perfect measure of the scientific uncertainty in the published literature, the study does show that an overwhelming majority of published scientific research supports the idea that human activity is significantly modifying Earth's climate.

As Gore noted in his movie, the situation is quite different in the media, where about half of the stories in the study he cited cast doubt on the reality of human-caused climate change. The media are fond of trying to report both sides of an issue, so in the name of journalistic fairness, the public is receiving a highly skewed view of the scientific debate on climate change. In many cases, the opposing views presented by the media are from fossil fuel industry-funded "think tanks" that routinely put out distorted and misleading science intended to confuse the public.

I've collected a list of climate change position papers put out by the major governmental scientific institutes of the world that deal with the atmosphere, ocean, and climate. All of these organizations agree that significant human-caused climate change is occurring:

United Nations IPCC
American Meteorological Society
NOAA
U.S. National Academy of Sciences
NASA
EPA
American Geophysical Union
National Center for Atmospheric Research
Royal Society of the United Kingdom
Canadian Meteorological and Oceanographic Society

Science Council of Japan, Russian Academy of Science, Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society of Canada, Chinese Academy of Sciences, French Academy of Sciences, German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina, Indian National Science Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Royal Society (UK)

Australian Academy of Sciences, Royal Flemish Academy of Belgium for Sciences and the Arts, Brazilian Academy of Sciences, Royal Society of Canada, Caribbean Academy of Sciences, Chinese Academy of Sciences, French Academy of Sciences, German Academy of Natural Scientists Leopoldina, Indian National Science Academy, Indonesian Academy of Sciences, Royal Irish Academy, Accademia Nazionale dei Lincei (Italy), Academy of Sciences Malaysia, Academy Council of the Royal Society of New Zealand, Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences, and Royal Society (UK)

If anyone can find examples of governmental scientific organizations that deny the consensus position, I'd be happy to make a second list of links. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have long been hostile to international climate change negotiations, so their scientific organizations may well have official positions opposing the consensus. However, the Saudis are apparently changing their stance, as announced in May 2006 at a U.N. sponsored meeting in Germany. "I believe the petroleum industry should actively engage in policy debate on climate change as well as play an active role in developing and implementing carbon management technologies to meet future challenges," said the president of the Saudi state-run oil industry giant, Aramco. In 2005, both Saudi Arabia and Kuwait signed and ratified the Kyoto Protocol to limit greenhouse gases. The Protocol does not call on them to reduce their emissions.

In summary, there is an overwhelming level of scientific consensus on human-caused climate change. Those who defend the contrary view are fond of pointing out that we shouldn't stifle their opposing point of view, since heroes like Galileo with his sun-centered solar system view and Wegener with his continental drift theory both challenged the overwhelming scientific consensus of their day and were proved to be correct. That is true. However, Galileo and Wegener did not have the public relations staff of multi-billion dollar companies helping them promote their contrary views. I'm not too worried about the contrarian view of human-caused climate change being stifled, and contrarians are encouraged to publish in the peer-reviewed scientific literature. I would like to see the media sharply reduce their coverage of the contrary views of such think tanks as the Competitive Enterprise Institute, George C. Marshall Foundation, and scientists such as S. Fred Singer of SEPP. Getting one's climate science information from these sources it similar to getting one's news from a tabloid newspaper. Sure, some of the stories are true, but a lot of the material is of questionable quality, to say the least. The media should focus on getting their scientific information from leading scientists who regularly publish in the peer-reviewed scientific literature.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Gettin interesting out there
Bravo Dr. Masters! Last word on GW, now back to the tropics...
the NMM is showing a tropical Storm forming off the Southeast coast over the Weekend
Then going up the coast right? The cmc shows it forming ans crossing fla, the others are not as agressive and not spinning it up into a storm
cool, thats the exact percentage of formation i gave it
Interesting comments on global climate change. I have been to Montana and have seen fossils of previous tropical type plants there. I wonder if it will get warm enough and wet enough again in the future to see tropical vegetation extend to the northern plains as it once did. I also wonder what temperature is "normal". Is the tropical warmth normal for the plains indicating that we are in a cold spell at the moment or is the present temperature the normal temperature and we are heading out of normal as it did millions of years ago? Just some thoughts to ponder on while on vacation in the northern plains.
I was just looking through the NHC tropical weather outlook between June 1 and July 15. boy were they off....they only was sure on tropical storm Arlene and Hurricane Dennis...but poorly off on Bret (because of its proxmity to land) cindy the same and Emily they said upper level winds.

these were they most common words. Conditions dont appear favorable. Development is nor expected over the next 24 hours.

the word expected is like saying....I am not sure if something will form.
nice work Masters
What was normal millions of years ago doesn't much matter to modern humans...we weren't around then.

Although if the warming continues, the Northern Plains will probably become a much nicer place to live...
my new blog is up...leave comments if you want to to know how to make the picture below.

The Bermuda High is pretty far east, so it looks like if something forms it would go toward the Carolinas.

Link
I wouldn't be so sure of that; notice how far west high pressure (>1013 mb) extends. This brings up a good question: At what pressure contour does a tropical storm or hurricane travel around a ridge (1015 mb, 1020 mb, etc)?
we're overdue here in myrtle beach..... so i'm ready for a dinky beryl to come ashore, so we can get it over with BEFORE we start getting the major canes! ;)
MichaelSTL,

Wouldn't that depend on the pressure of the storm as well? Seems to me the pressure difference may play a part in that.

Dunno..not an expert by any means.
MichaelSTL - My "guess" is that it depends more on the pressure gradient than the absolute pressure. For example, with a strong trough approaching from the west, it would be more likely to recurve.
StL, I was basing that on the 1000mb winds indicated on the graph...in the area where the storm may form, the arrows point straight toward the carolinas.
depending on where it forms it could have no other course than into florida
someone posted a chart showing how shallow (weak) storms are steered mostly by low-level winds, and that stronger storms are steered by mid-level and high-level winds...

based on this, a TD would be steered by the winds at 1000 mb, which are indicated on the chart.

of course, the high could shift position between now and when/if a TD forms
anyone have a link on where the high was in 2004 for frances and jeanne?
frances and jeanne formed much farther south and west than this (potential) cyclone...
to me, the bahama blob seems to look more symmetrical at the moment.... this could be some lessoning of shear, and a better llc?
West?
doh, was trying to link to the colorado state water vapor loop of the blob.....
winds are forecast to be 30-35mph around the sytem.

The CIMSS Tropical Cyclone Page has the current steering winds for all the different levels and what intensity cyclones they generally steer.
oops, i meant east. further south and east.
It would probably be best to use the steering winds for a tropical storm (700-850 mb or 500-850 mb).
I feel baited and it wasn't even aimed at me...Sorry in advance:

1) Doctor: 30% chance that wound on your arm will kill you if we do not cut your arm off.... (better analogy). Your choice?

2) Oil is running out anyway sooner or later. Why not spend the money now to develop alt energy and save paying for oil and sell the technology?

3) The solution that people are talking about is not giving up cars or our lifestyle. Having a car and being anti petro is not hypocritical. The solution is developing new technology. (I, by the way, bike to work having chosen to live near work because I cannot stand sitting in a car for 45 minutes each day. It makes a huge difference in lifestyle. I am also a vegitarian. I do however take plane flights and live off food that was trucked here, etc. It is probably impossible to live carbon neutral without leaving civiliazation.

4) I have left civilization before, lived in the sorta jungle. It was amazing. I did not miss a thing once I got used to the heat. Except for the mosquitos and these damn invisible flea type bugs (sorry for the cuss but really if anything ever deserved to burn in everlasting fire, it would be those things) and the diseases, it was awesome. Actually the appalling sanitary conditions were not good either (probably a lot to do with the diseases but I assume that could be dealt with). Point is that though I am not advocating it for anyone really, a lot of our energy waste is really consumerism. I am not a left wing nut job because some of the guys there were right wing nut jobs and they loved it as well. Anyway.

5) Forcaster Colby: I think anti-global warming people get label corporate shills because given the cost of oil and the pollution (even without considering global warming), there is really not reason not to seek an alternative... unless you have a vested interest in oil, hence the corporate shill assumption. Not saying this is true, but I think that is the obvious rational looking in from outside...

6) Even if global warming is natural and is part of a cycle that will not hurt the world as a whole and humans in general will survive, there are millions of specific people who will not. These are people who cannot buy a house uphill and let the beach come to them. The human (and financial cost) will be enourmous. Granted these people are mostly democrats...

7) I worry most about non linear effects and exceeding our buffered state: at some point it all spirals out of control. If you think that the data on global warming is sketchy, the data on why the previous cycles occurred and stopped is even more so. What if conditions are different this time around?

8) I seem to have run out of steam...probably a pun there somewhere. Do I post or not? Hmmm? Yeah, Ok. Sorry everyone. You will not have to read my drivel again, less it is specifically weather related.
i think 500-850 mb is too high up for a TD. CIMSS says 600-950 mb is the steering level.
thelmores,

Right now that blob is just that, a blob. There is no llc, there is no orginization; all I can see right now is a surface trough. If convection persits and shear continues to relax(theres already a small area of <10kts of shear around that area) then we could get a llc and possibly a depression.
PBG00 - For Frances,this was the setup that caused the blocking and the stall. From HURRICANE FRANCES DISCUSSION NUMBER 38 5 AM EDT FRI SEP 03 2004:

"THE INITIAL MOTION IS 300/8. FRANCES IS ON THE SOUTHWEST SIDE OF A COMPLEX RIDGE THAT HAS ONE ANTICYCLONE CENTER EAST OF FRANCES AND ANOTHER TO THE NORTH. LARGE-SCALE MODELS FORECAST HEIGHTS TO RISE NORTH OF FRANCES THROUGH 72 HR AS A SHORT WAVE RIDGE MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN UNITED STATES.
[...]
INITIAL 03/0900Z 24.9N 76.0W 105 KT"
I agree with Myles but I am not sure of what? That there is nothing to look at. Or that there just might be something there.
Oh boy I love this site. Have a great day everyone and listen to Jeff. Today, tonight into tomorrow watch that Blob!
I selected 500-850 mb because that would be the stearing layer for a tropical storm (990-999 mb), assuming that one develops (the 700-850 mb layer would be for a tropical depression or weak storm).
Thanks for Reference, Guygee.
Archive Advisories are Great Reminders of Storms Past & Barometer for Storms to Come...

000
ABNT20 KNHC 211518
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1130 AM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXTENDS FROM NEAR
THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE ATLANTIC WEST OF BERMUDA.
THIS WEATHER SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER BEVEN


Notice how they drop "and is not expected to develop" and added " curremt not favorable"
I think I'm seeing some outflow from the blob over the Bahama's It's in the NW quadrant. Link zoom in on the blob in the bahamas and animate the pic. You will see some outflow beginning in the NW quad.
there is definitely something there...but right now it looks like an extra-tropical storm. deep convection is far away from the center.
Thanks guygee
remember, all thunderstorms have outflow. it is not necessarily a sign of tropical cyclone development.
53rd,

I think you and agree I that there is nothing now but something could develope in the future. Probably wont get strong, but a tropical storm is very possible in the next couple days. IMO, of course.
deep convection was far away from Alberto center
yes, and alberto huffed and puffed along, never really got all that organized, and was mainly a rainmaker. probably the same would be true if something develops here.
I agree with the outflow, however I did notice a cyclonic rotation to the outflow. I thought it might be worth looking (or my glasses are dirty LOL).
Pardon me "ANTI-CYCLONIC" rotation to the outflow.
I have made the mistake a couple times of confusing shear for outflow. : ( When we see it shift over to the western side we can be sure that it is outflow. What everyone is probably so interested in is the Convection explosions. They are pretty persistant. And becoming more centralized. If that northern component or convection could attach and feed the (almost) depression that would be pretty interesting. The northern (NE)convection is certainly taking a long time to "break off".
FLCrackerGirl - You are welcome and quite correct.

I tried to outflank Frances by going south to stay with a cousin down in West Boca...her parents were gone and she needed the company anyways, but due to the erratic path it ended up being almost as bad as if I had stayed in Satellite Beach. I almost ran out of gas on the way down because of gas shortages, and was lucky to find just one station with a little gasoline left. Power went out early, and being just a couple of miles north of Broward county in a large population center, people started getting nasty in gas lines and such.

We had no plywood for boarding windows, but my cousin was so nervous, she convinced her next door neighbor to strip the plywood from the metal shelves in his shop and we ended up putting up the plywood during the very peak of the storm.

Gave me a real taste for how crazy things will be when the big one really hits us...
So much for Accuweather's prediction of low hit percentages in NE FL if this thing off the coast forms and comes in.
Good morning everyone! How are you all today?

I see my little Bahamas wave is finally starting to really organize.
52. TomP
EdfromFL:

It may have been generally warmer back then, but at the time those fossilized plants were alive, Montana was probably also closer to the equator than it is now. The continents have moved a lot since then.

See Pangaea
Good afternoon all.....i'm a first time blogger here..
welcome 2006......

from accuweather

"We continue to monitor the area of clouds, showers and thunderstorms just northeast of the Bahamas. This area of disturbed weather is associated with a weakening upper-level trough that is generally between 70 west and 75 west. This upper-level trough now appears to be breaking into two parts. The northernmost part will lift out to the northeast leaving the southernmost part behind just northeast of Grand Bahama. When upper-level troughs go through this splitting process, the southernmost part tends to become an upper-level low. This feature will be sitting over warm water for the next few days, and it might acquire tropical characteristics by the end of the week or during this weekend. The wind flow in the lower 10,000 feet is generally from the east and northeast. We refer to this as the steering flow for weak systems. So, based on this, we expect this feature to eventually move westward toward Florida. Nearly all global computer models are showing some kind of weak feature forming in this general area and drifting into Florida or the Southeast coastline this weekend. We can't tell for sure at this point whether this system will become an organized tropical system or remain a disorganized area of clouds and stormy weather. Either way, it should bring the northern Bahamas unsettled weather for the rest of this week and could bring Florida and perhaps coastal Georgia and South Carolina wet and perhaps stormy weather this weekend."

things are definately getting interesting! :)
Greetings 2006! Glad to have you with us!
As to the distinction between shea and outflow...

Shear is usually more unidirectional, and opposes the motion of the low-level center. I am not taking this definition from a book, but I think the term "outflow" can partially overlap with the definition of shear. For example, in a sheared system such as Alberto, the shear did have the effect of removing air out of the top of the tropical cyclone, even though there was no clear anticylcone over the storm in its later stages of life while it approached first landfall. Since the system never totally decoupled, the shear served as a kind of outlfow for the low-level cyclone.

Does anyone have a better distinction between the two terms?

Over the Bermuda wave, I can see a definite anti-cyclonic twist to the shear/outflow over the north side of the low-level system, but over the south side of the system there is no anti-cyclonic outflow right now.

there does seem to be some outflow from the nw quadrant..... regardless of "what/what" its coming from......
Yes they are. Even if it's just rain we do need it here. Even after alberto my county's in the red again.
I am starting to see some good rotation with the area of distrubed weather east of the Bahamas. Also, starting to see some influence from the SW which is indicating some moisture wrapping into the center. SW winds aloff (sheer) seems to helping to get moisture into this distrubed area. Do some of you guys/girls see that in you assessment of this area?
Welcome aboard 06.

It will be interesting to see what the Bahamas area does over the next couple of days. Like the Accu folks said, almost all models are now calling for some sort of development. I do know that it will have plenty of warm water to work with. I think that the shear is the going to be the biggest factor.

06 and for those who have not seen. StormJunkie.com can help you find all of the models, imagery, and more, as well as wsome WU blogger storm video.

SJ
Yes, shear can be outflow, even if it is only on the side opposite the one the shear is affecting. There is outflow from the NW to E sides of the blob, and outflow to the northwest indicates that the shear may be starting to weaken in that area.
Yes sails I see the same thing happening. There is not a closed low yet, but the wind is from the SSE on the east side, and from the ENE on the west side. This indicates a strong surface reflection is forming.
thelmores - Agreed, but only when the upper-level flow wraps all the way around to form an anti-cyclone, do we know we have a serious chance for significant development of a classical tropical cyclone underneath.

Not that we couldn't end up with a lesser sheared storm like Alberto...
Afternoon Levi:) and everyone else.

I say this will at least be TD 2 and maybe even a weak Beryl. I also think that mid to N GA will be where the system heads. Most of that is just geuss work with a little help from the models though.

SJ
Remember Dr. Masters said a small area of low shear may develop starting tomorrow.
is there a software that can create those TWC pictures.
Levi32 - Thanks for the reply. Consensus on definitions helps us communicate constructively on this blog.
SJ that's a bold guess so early in this disturbance's life. I am almost to the point of saying TD 2, but not quite yet.

The models can't help you on this one SJ. It's not their type of situation until this develops. Right now only common sense will help you make a forecast.
You're welcome guygee, that's what this blog is all about.
rwdobson

RE Bermuda High (Bermuda-Azores High)
It is more north of the normal position than east.

June Normal Pressure
anyone notice how small the system is?
I would not say bold Levi. I should state very low confidence and like I said that is just a geuss. As for the models I understand that they will have little accuracy until several runs after formation of a system.

And again, I am not going ST here stating facts, just having a little fun throwing my geuss out. Seeing what kind of responses or counter points it brings.

guygee and Levi it will take a lot to keep the comunications constructive here, but that is the best way for all of us to learn.

Back to work. See ya'll later
SJ
i think it will have less warm water to work with than alberto did. i say it becomes TD2 but no more. that is my bold, model-free predicition...
True Dob, but I think there is the potential for it to have less shear then Alberto had to battle also.

For the record, I do not go just with the models. Factor in many other things my untrained eye sees.

SJ
SJ, wasn't tryin to go all stormtop on ya...(STOP LISTENING TO THOSE STUPID COMPUTERS!)...just saying mine is based on what i see now.
Here is my early SWAG for the Bahama Blob (not sure if the "S" is for scientific or silly):

Mid-Upper level high pushing off the east coast will move north over the system and begin to turn it due west by early tomorrow. Shear will lessen and we will have a TD (depending on when NHC "calls it") within 24-36 hours, moving towards northwest Bahamas and Central FL.

Will check back tonight to see if this starts to verify.
heres an idea.....why dont we create a scale of developemnt potential...where we consider some factors


-wind shear (1)
-sea surface temperatures (2)
-the overall look of the system (3)
-presence of llc (4)

(1) can be -5 to +5
(2) can be -5 to +5
(3) can be -5 to +5
(4) can be either 0 or 1

so pur current system would be

-3 + 3 + 3 + 0= 3

3/16 chance of development.
Given the resiliance of Alberto and its surprising and wholly unexpected (at least, by myself) development into a near-maximum tropical storm, I'll go ahead and predict that this system will narrowly make it to a named storm, and my reasons are two-fold:

1) Though somewhat cooler than the gulf waters Alberto formed in, there is still plenty of relatively warm water in the region where this disturbance resides, making strengthening possible.

2) Shear is forecast to reduce, and it already appears to be at lower levels than those which Alberto (barely) endured.

It is still too early to predict a track on this sucker, due to the lack of any clear center of circulation - but I'll go ahead and project that the largest likelihood that the storm will come ashore between Titusville, FLA and Tybee Island, GA - but that is an awfully large stretch of coast.
Dr. Masters,

There was an interesting comparison of Northern Hemisphere air temperatures and the length of the solar cycle that was published by E. Friis-Christensen and K. Lassen in "Science" in 1991. How valid is this?

Solar activity and climate

This storm once the shear lessens could very well become Beryl our second named storm of the season. The Gulf Stream could very well make a difference of strengthening like it had on Katrina last year before she hit Florida. If it was to go up the East Coast and follow the Gulf Stream we could be looking at a hurricane here in New England. Now this is just the two early scenarios or it could just go out to sea, but very unlikely that will happen due to the presence of the Bermuda High.
I think the high will block the storm and it will head across central and southern Florida,
Of course whether it stays weak or not I think some enhanced rain chances may be headed into Florida by the end of the week into ealry next week,I live in central Florida on the west coast.
Dont discourage the models. Models are good. 18+ delicious layers of computational wholesomeness await you. A unique situation of complexity and prediction that occurs in online atmospheric science. Necessity being the mother of invention. I just hadnt seen anything like it before. I should be more initially tolerant.

Much of the incredibly pioneering art of the twenty century that foreshadowed the innovations we enjoy today were based on static, demonstrative models. Take a look at the early works of a personal favorite - Naum Gabo.
WHERE CAN I FIND A LINK TO THESE "MODELS" I HEAR SO MUCH ABOUT
85. WSI
456, I sent you a message but will show it here as well. The FSU page is where many people get their info. Another good source is here.

Those models and others are linked on weathercore.com.

Still a hostile environment out there. It will be interesting to see what happens (if anything).
Jedkins..I am with you..gut ays it heads into Fla Maybe Vero area and up and out the other coast
JFla, have you looked at the model output available on the WU main page (model maps). i think they are visually interesting when animated. one of them (NAM) is showing a storm spinning up and heading towards the SE coast.
along with fsu, Penn State also has their own model here, as well as some of the other models offered on the fsu site......

the psu model also shows development, with n. florida/ s. ga possible landfall locations as best i can tell......
the Models work differently but heres a primer. If you have a linux or bsd box and you're into that kind of thing you can even download one and update it at sites like this.

Sorry to poke my head in and interrupt. Today I feel like Dian Fossey watching Gorillas in the Mist! I should be watching the storm more!!!
Hey 456, I like that development potential scale you presented a while back. I like the idea.
I signed up just to disagree with you on the GW matter. I do personally believe that we are affecting the climate, and, yes, we should do what we can to change this. However, the very idea that you seem to promote the stifling of contrary views is rather disheartening.
-----SNIP--------------
Those who defend the contrary view are fond of pointing out that we shouldn't stifle their opposing point of view, since heroes like Galileo with his sun-centered solar system view and Wegener with his continental drift theory both challenged the overwhelming scientific consensus of their day and were proved to be correct. That is true.
However, Galileo and Wegener did not have the public relations staff of multi-billion dollar companies helping them promote their contrary views
-----SNIP---------------

With that statement you seemed to be promoting the idea of either overtly or covertly suppressing free speech by having the news media ignore the contrary view. You attempt to give weight to your argument with the sheer number of those on your side, as if you should be heard more loudly because of numbers on your side.
The sheer number of believers equates to nothing in my book. NOTHING.
Can you point out any time where the greater the number of people whom believed in an idea made that idea more TRUE? That is the argument you are making.
I appreciate the news media for presenting both sides of the issue. I want to hear the contrary view, even if it is a small number. In the end, if your ideas on gw are correct then the opposition will be silenced. Get that? The TRUTH will silence them. And if that form of silence comes from your opposition it will sound like roaring applause of victory for you. On the other hand, if their silence comes through being ignored and covertly silenced by intentional lack of news media coverage then the only sound you will ever hear is the sound of grumbling dissent and screams of media bias.
Yea rw really cool. A lot of my friends cant even get past boring naked people.
finally... someone talking some sense Scot is exactly right 1008mb or BUST!!
Well here we are at 2:00 est and the almost vertical line of convection in the eastern side of this "blob" (aka Tropical Wave) is still throwing lots of high cold clouds. I think the Navy will have an invest up pretty soon and the NHC will move the darned floater over it. Hello TD2.
thnaks Levi32.....i will be use it this seson and my blog.
Jedkins, Gulfstream Boost?
PBG00, Vero?
You'All Maybe Right.

(sigh) Not Again...
(I Really Hate Being in "Break Point" City)
Fran From Vero Beach

53rd, colorado state site has floater one on the Bahamas system, and has since Monday. Link

I'll be back on later this afternoon. See you all later!
Let me say that the media and any conceptualization of truth are completely separate. truth, in all but discussion,is an individually internal network of conceptually cohesive relationships. The media is a communicative network for relating the societal model (yea!) of truth.

Ultimately the media in our society is a corporate entity - but then again -- so are many individuals.


NHC still is looking at new England with both their floaters. The center of the low the storm is imbedded inn seems to be located and moving slightly SE of Grand Bahama and Abaco at the moment.
102. jeffB
Slowchaos wrote:

With that statement you seemed to be promoting the idea of either overtly or covertly suppressing free speech by having the news media ignore the contrary view. You attempt to give weight to your argument with the sheer number of those on your side, as if you should be heard more loudly because of numbers on your side.
The sheer number of believers equates to nothing in my book. NOTHING.


It's certainly possible for the vast majority of believers to be wrong!

HOWEVER:

There are lots of people who believe that governments are secretly controlling the weather. Some of them even post here. Do you think "the media" owe them coverage equal to that given conventional forecasts?

There are people who believe that they see faces, buildings, cities, amusement parks in photos returned from Mars. Do you think the media owe them coverage equal to that given NASA researchers?

There are people who believe that conventional medical care goes against God's will, and no illness should be treated with anything other than prayer. The next time there's an outbreak of a communicable disease in your area, do you think the media should divide their time equally between treatment and prevention tips and exhortations to prayer?

Holding a minority belief doesn't make you wrong, but neither does it somehow entitle you to an equal share of the public's attention.
103. IKE
Freeport in the Bahamas has a WNW wind. Must be a low around....

But they show wind speeds at 105 mph. Uh...that's probably a little off.
104. IKE
That buoy 120 NM east of Cape Canavarel has a pressure of 30.13. That's awfully high.
It looks like I'm seeing anti-cyclonic outflow from the N, W to the SW side of the blob. I also see outflow on the E side, but it does not have the anti-cyclonic signature. It seems to be trying to get it's act togeather.
107. HAARP
OK Dr Masters...

Tell me why any organization would produce a paper that would basically cut off the money flowing into there pockets???

I see my days of supporting your great website are becoming numbered...your political views are creeping into the forefront of this blog and that is sad...

stick to the weather and try to be unbiased ...saying all the papers that oppose your theory are put out by special intrests without proof is so irresponsible it is sickening
the Scotsman spews truth!! lol good gut checks!!
Hey Gulf, Afternoon.

Don't take this the wrong way, just good debate for all to learn by.

2 and 3 are not facts and I am not sure that 1 is either.

Last year storms formed in shear over 15kts (TD10/TD12/Katrina) and ssts below 80. I know this is not the norm, but it has happened.

SJ
WOW....harsh words HAARP
111. HAARP
jeffb...

lol controlling the weather

it is possible to do this the proof is irrefutable...

the chinese just made it rain to stop a dust storm...

I was just looking through the NHC tropical weather outlook between June 1 and July 15. boy were they off....they only was sure on tropical storm Arlene and Hurricane Dennis...but poorly off on Bret (because of its proxmity to land) cindy the same and Emily they said upper level winds

Where are these archives found?
Storm Junkie -- i did take those "gut checks" as RULES I think we are well aware that nothing with the weather is set in stone...
some people dont seem to understand and learn from last year storms and recently alberto.

Wind sheer and sea surface temps donot always matter for a storm to develop.

The systems nowadays donot care about climatology. Once you have a disturbance its need to be watch....

Cant judge a storm by its appearance.
Storm Junkie -- i did NOT take those "gut checks" as RULES I think we are well aware that nothing with the weather is set in stone...

insert NOT where needed in FIRST post..grrrr
i disagree...you can definately gauge (maybe not "judge") a storm by its apperance .. AND further more if you couple the way a storm appears with the FACTS surrounding it... you get a much clearer picture of the whole situation
Yea SJ you right, Andrew in '92 was a 40kt tropical storm with a reported central presure of 1015 mb (it was noted as astonishgly high by the NHC).

There are weak highs with that pressure all the time.
img src="http://hadar.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/data/tropical/190.jpg"


looks like we are getting an increase in the cold cloud tops......
The disturbance near Panama is really showing signs of organization. I believe its a low pressure system that is trying to form there. The Bahamas disturbance is also trying to develop outflow to the north and east, but on the WV it shows its trying to get moisture on the west side too. If this keeps up we could have a depression by 5pm tomorrow or maybe a little earlier. The models are not accurate in trying to see where as it will make landfall yet or it's intensity would finally be, but keep an eye on this we could be seeing a tropical storm beryl from this along with the disturbance to the north of Panama. These are the only areas to pay attention to right now, and maybe Africa to with that strong wave that has just moved off the coast.
knew i shoulda learned html....LOL
tampacat 5 go to my blog....look at the my links and click "FLhurricane"

then you'll see tropical weather outlook above ablog...click history and you'll be taken to it......

I cant add a link to the page somethiing kinda wrong.
The area of convection has grown considerably in the past 12hrs and been very persistant(also throwing up some new really tall, cold, cloud tops. So what I am going on abscent 1008 and all the other criteria is that this convection will cause the pressure to start falling. The aforementioned "swirl and outflow" will form some what of a disorganized (wide open) but present Low level circulation and at that time(5pm est Thurs) This should be TD2! I will definitly give the credit where credit is due. This time NAtlanticCyclone and I think weatherboyfsu were pointing torwards development of this system before the CMC. This will definitly form TD2 there is just no stopping these convection bursts from all quadrants therefore Tropical Depression status will be attained.
Didn't stormtop say nothing until July 4th. Well the US got an early independence.
53rd with another enthusiastic prediction. But a "wide open" circulation is not a TD. it has to have a closed circulation. May still become a TD but is not yet one.
The northern convection(old convection) looks to be currently taken northeasterly with the trough that has just passed south of New England this morning. This will now definitely allow the low to spin up deeper and deeper convection closer to the center and then the pressure will begin to fall as we get closer to the dinurnal maximum when the heat energy is the greatest stored over the open waters. This will begin to dwindle a little bit tomorrow as the dinurnal minimum aprroaches, but then will take off and that's when our depression forms and maybe tropical storm Beryl is here for the weekend.
If you look at the shear maps on the tropical weather page of wunderground you can see that a corridor of less shear develops around the disturbance and all the way up the East Coast after the trough moves by. This will be interesting to watch as the yellow indicates some shear but I believe its caused by the Bahamaian disturbance something to look at though none the least.
Looks like "Clash of the Titans" on the NW ATL WV Loop. Ought to see some action tonight, if there is to be any that is.
The western side of the system seems to be developing convection and we could see a big blow up tonight and maybe depression status before tomorrow's 5pm update timeframe.
time 205 update

An active tropical wave is along 76w S of 20n moving W 15-20 kt.
Strong well-defined low/mid level curvature signature is
observed on satellite imagery

It is starting to back into the High behind it, not travel to much further east.
scotsman,

ZCZC MIAWRKAD4 LOC
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
...FOR INTERGOVERNMENTAL USE ONLY...
TROPICAL STORM ANDREW DISCUSSION NUMBER 15
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
11 AM EDT THU AUG 20 1992

SO FAR THIS MORNING... AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE REPORTS INDICATE A
BROAD... POORLY ORGANIZED CENTER WITH THE LOWEST CENTRAL PRESSURE
NEAR 1015 MB AND MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS AT 1500 FEET OF 54 KNOTS.
NEARBY ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES OF 1020 MB APPARENTLY ARE SUFFICIENT
TO SUSTAIN THOSE WINDS. SATELLITE PICTURES ARE STILL IMPRESSIVE FOR
A SYSTEM THAT HAS GONE THROUGH SUCH A STRUGGLE.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_wallets/atlantic/atl1992-prelim/andrew/
Gulfman, read prelim 01 and through the second full paragraph of prelim 02, Andrew encountered strong vertical shear and the pressure rose considerably,(up to 1015 mb) but flight level winds were still reported at 70kts.
Andrew did'nt just turn into a Cat 5 a day after it was born scotsman, it almost diminished.
Actually looks like that convection that broke off is shielding the disturbance from the shear a little bit.
Have been reading through the Andrew Forecast discussions. It's amazing how the NHC has progressed. Read this. ~48 hours before a Cat 5 landfall and that is all anyone had to go by.
Correction ~36 hours!
Wow, 48 hours before landfall and they said Andrew would only be a Cat 2? Try telling that to the old NHC radar unit. Just shows you much we didn't (and still don't) know about the factors controlling hurricane intensity.
How has NHC progressed? Look at hurricane Charley in 2004 - it went from a cat 2 to a cat 4 in one day and made landfall as a cat 4 hurricane. I don't think anyone expected it to be more than a category 2 at landfall. Same with Katrina - we only began forecasting a possible category 4 landfall after it intensified to a category 5 hurricane. What about Wilma? Went from a tropical storm one day to a category 5 hurricane the next. Nobody expected it.

Hurricane intensity is still very hard to predict. If we had a storm like Andrew headed for Florida this year with ~36-48 hours from landfall with winds at 85 knots I bet you that the NHC wouldn't predict a category 5 landfall either.
agree with redefined....even with alberto this year......it wasnt supose to go above 50knots.

they are excellent with track forecast but very poor in intensity....
"If we had a storm like Andrew headed for Florida this year with ~36-48 hours from landfall with winds at 85 knots I bet you that the NHC wouldn't predict a category 5 landfall either."

but brave bloggers would have...in fact, they would have predicted CAT 5 for every storm that season but only been right on this one...lol
thats 50mph
Charley was forecast to be a Cat 3 at landfall. I remember this distinctly.
BTW, the difference between advisory landfall intensity and (well, many years later) agreed upon landfall intensity is dramatic. 115 knots vs. 155 knots.
yes red your right... we can predict path / track much much better than intensity..
Its amazing what Andrew did though. It rivaled any other storm for rapid deepening and took everyone by surprised. As you say, Katrina and Wilma were the same way, so I don't think anyone can fault the NHC for their underestimations. Additionally, flight level conversions were a lot lower back in 1992, so surface winds were automatically adjusted lower than the storms actually produced (the reason why Andrew was upgraded to a Category 5 landfall in Florida in 2002).
MY $.02........

we will have td2..... and i think ya'll are being conservative..... think we will have it BEFORE 5pm tomorrow..... this storm seems to be rapidly developing, particularly in the last 4-5hrs...... much hgher cloud tops, which almost certainly means the pressure "could" be falling....

by 5pm tomorrow, we could have beryl on our hands! ;)

guess time will tell! :)
I think forecasting intensity is much easier than trying to communicate it in a manner of not overstating. I would imagine if you took each forecaster, and had them write their forecasts on anonymous slips of paper, you would have a much different intensity forecasts than the one that is published publicly.

The hurricane business has become so visible that I would suspect any forecast would be very conservative due to the bright light factor..just my thoughts.
150. WSI
"but brave bloggers would have...in fact, they would have predicted CAT 5 for every storm that season but only been right on this one...lol"

LOL! Good one rwdobson.


NHC can't forecast a CAT 5 at landfall unless they are reasonably sure its going to happen, else they are accused of crying wolf. If they miss and it comes onshore stronger than they thought, they are accused of being wrong and told they caused all kinds of deaths. Either way, they are hanged by someone.

Personally I think they do a fine job now considering the pressure they are under, and the fact that intensity is extremely hard to forecast.
thelmores. if those cold cloud tops are getting sheared away, nothings going to form.
A wonderful post Dr. Masters. I have had many questions that you answered here today. Great job, and keep up the great work educating people about Global Warming. For as much as we want to put it away, we need to start battling the issue with much more intensity.

Patrick
I have a question...

How do you guys find out how low the pressure is in the blob in the bahamas? Is there a model , or pressure map that ya'll look at?

(please forgive me, for I don't know a whole heck of a lot about this...)
fortunately, having an actual cat 5 AT LANDFALL is pretty rare...even in last year's mega season they all weakened before coming ashore.
Call- Alot of time bouy's are checked to find pressure and wind readings around different areas. You can find bouy information at StormJunkie.com. Just go to the Tropical section and then the Marine Data section. Also a lot of other good links to models and imagery as well as a lot more here.

SJ
"Charley was forecast to be a Cat 3 at landfall. I remember this distinctly."

This is true for the day or so before landfall as Charley began to intensify again. If you look at the forecasts 36-48 hours out they all forecasted a strong category 2 hurricane. Either way, we all remember what Charley became.
157. IKE
Imagine the NHC's reaction to Camille? Bet those were some interesting reports.

That Bahama blob is more impressive looking.
looks like this blob of convection around the Bahama area is getting thrown out or sheared to the WSW, but there does seem to be a faint circulation due W of GBI. THe convection is still getting sheared pretty good around that area and it will take some time for this system to develop if it can hang on, which I think it will.

SJ
Stephen Hawking concerned about global warming. There is an opinion I can definetely respect.

Link
That blob is impressive, but I don't think it will stick with the system.

SJ
That eastward movement has to stop before we can talk about development.

There isn't even a mid-level circulation yet. It certainly isn't closed anyway...
162. IKE
I bet another blowup happens tonight or in the morning. Looks like whatever forms it gets shunted west across Florida. Whether it's a TD/TS or just a trough...it should bring beneficial rains and looking at a 6-10 day long range forecast heads up toward the Carolina's/Virginia and brings copious rains.
163. IKE
The latest Tropical weather report...."For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico...
Satellite images show a concentrated area of showers and
thunderstorms centered about 250 miles northeast of the northern
Bahamas. There are no signs of a surface circulation at this time
and upper-level winds are not favorable for significant
development. This activity will likely spread toward the
west-northwest during the next day or two.
Elsewhere... tropical storm formation is not expected through
Thursday."...

Now their saying significant development. Uh-oh..they know something.
Yeah this blob is taking a good shearing...but it is showing ambition. The winds are more rapped around then yesterday. I give it 35% chance of becoming a TD. Either way, I'm thinking Fl or Ga has the best chance of rain out of this (well after the Bahamas).
000
ABNT20 KNHC 212123
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

my forecast been rose to 5/16

-2 wind shear
4 sea surface temperaturea
3 overall appearnace
0 no low level center

My previous forecast 3/16
-3 wind sheer
3 sea surface temps
3 overall apearnace
0 no llc
Charley was forecated as a 1 or 2 Near Tampa just about the whole time....thoughts were that it might even break it up a bit over Cubal's mountains or slow it's strength. Then he rode Cuba's coastline and found the smallest flattest spot of land and with di-max atnight lost no steam (ala katrina in miami at night) When a storm hits the gulf loop...all bets are off! This is why I boarded for Charley before anyone on my block. Tracking in the gulf we are pretty darn accurate now....intesity..not so much

that is rule nuber 1....Gulf loops and Eddy's are gas cans looking for fire
The newest advisory from the NHC has once again played down the are of distrubed area NE of the Bahamas. The NHC always says "no devoplement inticipated" and a day or so later they are issuing advisories?

By the early development of this system does any buy into what the 5:30pm advisory from the NHC has stated or do you feel that TD 2 is firmly in the making?
I think the High is finally starting to build in behind it, so we will see some western component to the motion soon. Its still under 25 kts of shear and it does not have a surface low, or even mid level closed circulation yet.
When was the last cat 5 landfall (not necessarily in the US), But in the Atlantic basin. Was it Andrew?
"The Chinese government preaches that scientific prowess is crucial to the country's future power."-From the article arcturus just posted a link to.

Hell, imagine that, a country that is willing to accept the fact that science is our future. What a brilliant idea. To bad we don't think the same way for whatever reason. We need Hollywood, superstars, and religion to save us.

No disrespect to any religion, but we really need to focus on learning even if it goes against some things that we once believed to be true. I am not speaking of anyones God or beliefs, just the fact that sometimes we prefer ignorance and bliss, over striving to understand our universe.

Sorry ya'll I really mean no disrespect with that, but I have seen many that will not even entertain the idea of evolution....

As for the Bahamas area it does not have to go anywhere and it certainly does not have to go in to Fla. Everyone from OBX south should keep an eye on that area.

SJ
Yes, it was Andrew. Ivan was a Category 5 while passing 20 miles from Grand Cayman but did not officially make landfall. Charley may be upgraded to Category 5 in the coming years.
172. IKE
When they say..no significant development..to me, their leaving a window open. Looks like it could make it to a TD...maybe tomorrow...maybe not.
Cregnebaa we had like more than 5 cat 5 since andrew..the last one was Hurricane Wilma October 2005
Look, it is far far away from any development right now. Its getting sheared to pieces, and no LLC is in sight of forming. Even if a LLC were to form in the next 5 minutes, it would still be a long way from developing because it is poorly organized.
Wasn't Mitch a 5 when it hit Honduras?
sorry let em rehrase my question.....I think mitch in 1998 other than that Andrew 1992
456, he meant landfalling Category 5s. We have had 8 Category 5s in the Atlantic Basin since Andrew.
No, Mitch weakened to a Category 1 before making landfall.
Ivan was a Category 5 while passing 20 miles from Grand Cayman but did not officially make landfall.

They should define landfall as being the point where the maximum winds in the eyewall reach land; there isn't any real difference between getting Cat 5 winds from a direct strike or from being brushed...
NHC has 150kt sustained winds in GC for Ivan, so close but no cigar. We had a bit of the eye I'm sure as winds died to about 50kts in the middle of the storm in Georetown, but pretty glad it wasn't a direct hit.
Andrew then that was a while ago
Wilma and Cancun?
Sails, atmos that thing is not moving anywhere right now if you ask me. The convection is moving away from the "center" of main area of interest I think. And the high should build in to the N of the system sort of stalling it which is what may give it the chance to develop. After that the high is forecasted to retreat, and that is when I would expect the system to start moving a little more. Track should be of very little importance right now.

SJ
Of course Michael, I would support that. Katrina brought Category 4 winds to SE LA yet because the N eyewall had got there and the eye hadn't before it weakened to Category 3, the NHC called it a 3.
Yes, the convection is moving away from the apparent center because it is being sheared to pieces.
Wilma struck Cozumel at 150 mph, and Cancun at 140 mph.
What I was saying/asking atmos is why do you think we should see a westward movement soon?

I meant 150mph sustained in GC not Knots, as we do still have an island.
lol Creg:)

SJ
No you guys its being sheared from the southwest. That should be over by tomorrow because it will develop outflow and that high will provide protection for this disturbance. This disturbance is developing outflow from the Northwest, north, northeast, east and southeast. The low level clouds are starting to circulate underneath the disturbance if you look on the visible satellite imagery. They are coming from the east and then north to the northwest of the storm. This is very well developing a LLC.
If the shear isnt dying a little it is at least changing directions as a boundary makes its way though the storm. The center of the low took a jog to the east which would put the storm center SE of where it appears There seems to be a definite outflow to the NE. All in all its staying together much better than I thought behind the Bahamas. It should take a jog the N, NW pretty soon now.
Tend to agree with that NAC.

I do not understand the westward component "soon" that some are suggesting? It looks like it will have to go N or NNE in the short term?

SJ
No matter what happens to the shear or anything else we will find the end result tomorrow when we wake up....simple as that....There are alot of things that are coming together to allow the formation and any of those things could change and mess the whole formation up.......we will see tomorrow and the next day.............yada, yada, yada......
Woah, yeah. Last year we didn't have any landfalling cat 5s... Wierd for a legendary season, Right?
What happened to that thing in the Pacific?
the 1008 mb criterion is interesting, because it is one of the criterion used by the NHC in the olden days (1965 and before) to classify a disturbance a tropical depression--other criteria included at least 10 knots of west wind on the south side of the center outside of convection and a closed pressure center of at least 4 mb.
Hello, Just a few ideas about landfalling hurricanes and the little problems with intensity forecasts busting at landfall. Perhaps, just perhaps, there is something fishy going on, and it is no one particular forecaster's fault if they lose a landfalling intensity forecast, theoretically speaking, of course.
Expecting settlement a little N in the above ridge slight shift in low with center of circ of storm to follow. ( water vapor loop )
The area of concern hasn't moved an inch, I presume it to be about at the crosshairs of 75W 25N. The convection is going the way of the shear and the convection #2 behind it, off to the NW. Circulation is elongated with the shear as well, nothing happening till morning at the earliest.
Maybe 26 Progresive, but other then that it sounds about right.

SJ
As far as direction, no predictions until something forms, where and when? who knows.
The following are all articles that dispute the end results of CO2 emmissions. Copy and paste in google and look at each article if you really want to see both sides of the Global warming debate.

Even the UN report that is referenced so often had built in errors in the computer modeling that exagerated a lot of the projections of temperature rise in the past century leading to an accelerating of the problem above what is being seen in real measurements today.

Does this mean I am right and you are wrong for what you believe, no, not really. It simply means that there are two legitimate sides to this and most every other debate and that neither side should be dismissed so casually.


Global Warming:
The Origin and Nature of
the Alleged Scientific Consensus
Richard S. Lindzen


Settling Global Warming Science
Co-Authored by:S. Fred Singer and David H. Douglass


When Is Global Warming Really a Cooling?
By Roy Spencer :



Hurricanes and Global Warming: Is There a Link?
By George Taylor


Global Warming and Hurricanes: Still No Connection
By Patrick Michaels


Interview with Dr. William Gray
By James K. Glassman


Interview with Dr. James O'Brien
By James K. Glassman



Interview with Dr. Roy Spencer
By James K. Glassman
Around the general area, it is hard to call a center of circulation that is elongated and sheared like crazy, but yeah I agree with you lol.
I just updated about the disturbance on my blog, it will answer some questions
I was thinking that was more of an inclusion of forced air with a tight center enclosed somewhere SSE of that. Perhaps not?!
It may not be so lower level yet and has some shadowing issues with the Bahamas. The shear boundary seems to pas through what I thought was the center - last frame(s) IR now.
Sorry.. Go go gaget IR NOW!
It should start tapping into the moisture beneath it Early Morning.
Very good point Progressive:)

The SE coastal waters have been very warm for this early also. Check the comparison from June 20 of this year and June 28 of the past three years for the area where the bahama system is. Sorry there was no update for those maps today.

SJ
It is best viewed this way JF, I think you get a better idea of what is going on around the system this way.

SJ
big news i this now hit 3,000
Congrats David :0).....
One thing I have noticed about this year is that the subtropical ridge is to the north of where it has ever been before (since the 1980s), for this early in the season. Normally, we have south winds on the GA coast, backing to SE in the afternoon and veering to SW at night, with sea/landbreeze effects. For much of June, we have had winds out of the east as the ridge has settled to the north of us. This occasionaly happens in August/September, but even then it is unusual and it has never happened in June since I can remember.

Perhaps, if the ridge sets up to the north for the summer, a hurricane will be drawn to the west towards the NE FL/SE GA coast this year. But I still doubt it.
SJ I think the low level center looks to be forming inside that loop of convection on the RGB Visible satellite imagery you just showed. The bands will begin to form throughout tonight and we will then see where it is after the diurnal maximum later tonight. And tomorrow will be the big test as to if it forms or not.
214. PBG00
someone tell taz it doesn't count if 22oo of them are posted by himself

I am not too impressed with our Bahama system, but as I misunderestimated Alberto, I should reserve judgement.

My prediction is that 'Beryl' will make landfall in the St. Augustine area, and this it will never have a pressure below 1000 mb, and that 60/40 it will never be named.
I tell you what I am amazed about! is that were actually taking about something forming in this area at this time of year.
217. PBG00
I'd be suprised if it gets past a TD..but after the last two seasons all bets are off
NAC, That may be a viable option, center could really form anywhere in that area, I would be suprised to see it forming so soon though. Not that it could not happen.

SJ
There is still no invest on the NRL site, which means that they are not too impressed with it; by comparison, the East Pacific invest (95E) has been up for days and it looked a lot worse than the Bahamas system for much of that time.
I concur progressive that is pretty amazing, ya'll should check those sst comparisons I posted earlier. That area is warm for this time of year.

SJ
Hurricane Baryl.... Max Wind speed 85MPH...
I'll bite on hurricane Beryl, with 85 mph winds. Beryl will not develop from this system though ;-)
Where does everyone think this blob will move if does develope.my vote is for erin 1995 path but as a weaker system 45-55 mph storm. just wishfful thinking on my part because we need the rain in nw fl panhandle
I will post a blog tonight on this disturbance that looks good tonight and seem to be getting bigger and the top weather blogs and and weather sites.

Hard to say Pcola, you may wake up to a big helping of blob be gone. I never make directional predictions until we have a TD, it is hard to say, even after a TD forms the center jumps around as you seen with Alberto.
StormJunkie....Yah, it's pretty warm over there. Probably something late Friday and Saturday. How much to expect? Ha, it's jurricane season! I'll tell you Friday morning.
More visible and controled after we have an actual TD though
Thats a good view sj. It is much warmer this year. Its refilling in.

Look at that movement! That tang could get scary.
Progressive! You are harshing my SWAG buzz, man!

But you are right of course.
Waiting for the wee hours to see where the convection blows up again. We might see more on the west side of the surface reflection low if/when that develops...
doesnt this look like a developing tropical system...more like alberto.

Looks like a great picture of a seabreeze front from east texas across Louisiana to Mississippi and Alabama.

Storm Junkie's link
on the latest visible tropical ramdis visible floater loop, i think i see a mid to lower circulation starting to form

TIME 2115 PLOT 72.5w-26n
TIME 2315 PLOT 72.ow-27n

appears to me to be heading north...... if i have my head stuck up my....., just say so! LOL
OF COURSE, IT is not A CLOSED CIRCULTION!!! :)
they should send a plane out there
Weather456, it looks more like a bloodbath... Why is the photo red?
thelmores - IMHO, more like the illusion of a circulation due to looking down through clouds moving in mid-upper level flow and low-level clouds along the the wave axis. I haven't been able to spot any low-level circulation yet, at least to my eyes...maybe I am just looking it the wrong place, or maybe if is beneath the convection, but I don't think there is one yet.
its starting to get SOME rotation i wonde if this is the next deppresion
St. Simons, i live in St. Augustine. Hmm, we do need the rain though.
yea - its going kinda fast whith the shear letting up. TD early AM?
hey guygee, will let you know in a few hours.....

we have a new variable in tropical weather forecasting that we have not quantified/ qualified yet....... look at epsilon last year.....

several years back, we wouldnt even be talking about a blob in its location, but there it is.....

i expect a few twists on this storm, particularly due to its formation/location and weak strength in nature, i think most will agree, even if we get tropical storm status, this systm is very unlikely to be a hurricane, or eben a strong tropical storm for that matter....

it would be so boring to know "exactly" what was going to happen, now wouldnt it! :) I just love a little speculation, even if it is from a redneck meteorologist from south carolina! LOL
its starting to get SOME rotation i wonde if this is the next deppresion

Hmmm... the convection does have a comma shape, but that does not mean that there is a circulation; maybe it has what they call "cyclonic turning" though.
several years back, we wouldnt even be talking about a blob in its location, but there it is

Do you realize where storms usually form in June? Link

It is not that far out of the normal areas.
Just a case and point on Directionals, Models were forcasting North to the carolina's earlier and are now back to central Fl.
thelmores - I took a stand with my Silly Wild Armwaving Guess earlier...TD by sometime tomorrow. Might as well have a little fun while we are watching, so I'm with you on that.

It's when these things turn into monsters, like the night Katrina went into the doughnut phase, when the time comes to get somber and serious. But that is a big reason why I watch these things too, so I know when I ned to get serious.

Most of the reason you see the probability on the east coast is from storms originating in the carribian and traveling up the coast, like Alberto. It is far from where storms form this time of year.
247. PBG00
cmc has been consistent in the florida track
I think I can see a cyclonic center of circulation at around 27.5N and 74W. The cloud pattern in that blob suggests so and lower level winds comply as well.
when looking at those climatology maps 2005 storm were not that far off from normal.....
Yes Michael, but do you realize that the map you posted shows a 2% chance on the outer edges?

PP, are you talking about the 18z model runs?

SJ
That was a map of areas most AFFECTED by tropical cyclones during june, not where it forms. If you look at the map you see the track of Alberto.
The CMC is showing a GA landfall for a very elongated system, but it does have a second area of interest right behind this blob.

SJ
The most likely areas for tropical formation in June are the SW Gulf and Caribbean. They usually track into northern Mexico or the panhandle of Florida.
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N70W 22N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N38W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 10W-65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 76W. A TINY
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N73W. A RIDGE IS
FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N
BETWEEN 30W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
32N11W.

$$
FORMOSA

no mention of the disturbance not forming.
255. Alec
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
530 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A CONCENTRATED AREA OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CENTERED ABOUT 250 MILES NORTHEAST OF THE NORTHERN
BAHAMAS. THERE ARE NO SIGNS OF A SURFACE CIRCULATION AT THIS TIME
AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE NOT FAVORABLE FOR SIGNIFICANT
DEVELOPMENT. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY SPREAD TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO.

ELSEWHERE... TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH
THURSDAY.

256. PBG00
Very elongated affecting florida..it seems to dissipate the second system after spinning it up..maybe I am reading it wromg
GFS is the only 18Z, most are still 12Z. They seem to have shifed south from when I looked at them earlier today. CMC and now the GFS are spitting out a second something behind this one.
like I said this morning folks, the tropics are looking juicy - not what I'd expect this time of year - and something will be forming out of this, maybe even the Bahama Blob..
Head on, Apply directly to the forehead
Head on, Apply directly to the forehead
Head on, Apply directly to the forehead
Head on, Apply directly to the forehead
Head on, Apply directly to the forehead

I am jumping off the nearest bridge the next time i hear that garbage.....lol

SJ
By the way, I just noticed that the cyclone phase site has the NAM model (not on the model page); it indicates that there is a cyclone in the Bahamas. Link (doesn't do much)
Ahh, I wasn't seeing things!

Alec, yes there is no LLC but there is a center of cyclonic circulation.
That is an existing cyclone; it says that there is a surface circulation.
But there isn't LOL! They must have that wrong.
thanks for the tropical weather outlook and discussion - one stop shopping here..
Alec, not saying that there is a circulation, but that was stated three hours ago, and it is feasible that a circulation could form before the 11:30. Not likely, but feasible.

That being said, The guy who had the idea of having the NHC guys and gals forecast anonymously and in no association with the NHC would be very interesting to see.

SJ
266. Alec
look at the low level steer: link

...well not see the guy who had the idea, I meant see the forecasts from the NHC guys and gals....
268. PBG00
why? no harm no foul kinda deal?
SJ, you ok?!
There is and has been an upper level low over the Bahamas, the question is whether a surface reflection will form somewhere on the surface wave axis, take on tropical charactistics, and begin to develop.

I admit I can now see some definite cyclonic turning roughly around 27.3N 73W. It is pulling a west wind below, probably in the mid levels. But will that persist through the night, or just spin off to the north or NE and dissipate?
Yea, why snow?
They're looking at this as hard as we are!
- A TINY
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N73W.
I think there is a LLC trying to develop. There is certainly divergence at lower levels and I believe we will start to see a surface reflection of the ULL soon. However, even though this could form quickly, I do not expect this to develop into a tropical cyclone because of the lack of organization and 25-30 kt wind shear.
I thought it would be a little further west, say 74W. Now I see that the convection is still far removed from the "center".
275. Alec
yup Rich......Like yesterday, it looked impressive(convection-wise) but then the convection fizzled out, only to reform today...
SJ, your inscrutable post about jumping off bridges..
: atmosweather i hot 30000
Wow David! Well done! Are you going for more or will you make a new thread?
atmosweather i am going for 4,000 now and then 5,0000
280. Alec
We might as well have a comments contest on wunderground!.....LOL David will never make a new blog with this new page layout format....LOL
LOL I thought I'd never see 60 pages of comments!!!
Brief off-topic - Are any of you SC-GA folks looking at the possible big MCS for tonight? You folks need some rain, right?
Snow have you ever seen that damned comercial on TWC?

SJ
284. Alec
Im in North FL(Tallahassee).....we need rain too!!! It was extremely hot today with many readings between 97-102....some unofficial readings in S GA were saying 105 in the shade!
atmosweather and now you have lol
Head on, Apply directly to the forehead
Head on, Apply directly to the forehead
Head on, Apply directly to the forehead
Head on, Apply directly to the forehead
Head on, Apply directly to the forehead
NOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO NOT UP HERE TOO! NO NO NO AHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHHH
Evening, guys! Atmos?! Hello!
lol
Why did you have to go an do it again HK?

lmao

SJ
Evening Bug. We may be able to get some rain out of Bahama Blob.

SJ
Someone stop me. I have a bridge across the street.
Alec - Hard to get the summer rains going when the soil is dry as a desert. It is a feedback loop - the less available local moisture the less localized convective storms.

I like the big WV loop on the RAP site for looking at the continental US. Take a look, that rain might make it to you before sunrise, with any luck...
Yup, looks like we just might get some rain out of it...just have to hurry and wait to see!
UM Tropical Dissucsion Notes a LLC look for your self. 805 Pm Disc.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...
SEE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION ABOVE. IN ADDITION...A SURFACE TROUGH
REMAINS OVER THE BAHAMAS ALONG 30N70W 22N75W. SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH FROM
24N-28N BETWEEN 70W-73W. A STRONG 1035 MB HIGH IS OVER THE
CENTRAL ATLANTIC NEAR 42N38W DOMINATING THE ATLANTIC N OF 20N
BETWEEN 10W-65W. IN THE UPPER LEVELS... ANTICYCLONIC FLOW IS
OVER FLORIDA AND THE W ATLANTIC N OF 27N AND W OF 76W. A TINY
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 27N73W
. A RIDGE IS
FURTHER E...N OF 20N BETWEEN 60W-70W. A LARGE CYCLONIC
CIRCULATION IS CENTERED NEAR 33N42W. CYCLONIC FLOW IS N OF 15N
BETWEEN 30W-60W. A RIDGE IS N OF 20N BETWEEN 20W-30W. A
CYCLONIC CIRCULATION IS ALONG THE COAST OF MOROCCO NEAR
32N11W.

Global Warming. It's amazing that people get so wound up over something so quantifiable.

As far as I can tell, most put the warmup at about .5C in the last 100 years. So what?

Wake me up when they know the answers to the following:

*Is T increasing at an increasing rate? How many years/decades before they really know? (Guess- a LOT)

*Is it caused by CO2? I've heard credible theories that suggest H2O vapor is more of a greenhouse gas than CO2, and smaller changes in water vapor are a bigger deal for heat retention. Is water vapor increasing? Is someone suggesting we are causing that?

*If it is CO2, are our activities the cause? There's been times where the atmosphere has had higher CO2 in the past, as well as times when the O2 level has been higher than it is now. Man is obviously not the cause of either of those conditions. Why are we now?

I just don't get the jump from "Global Warming" to "man is the cause, and we need to do something about it.". Seems to me we should be figuring out how to live with it.

Instead of experimenting with terraforming our only planet, I would suggest we build our houses further away from the water, and plant more tropical fruit.

Keep our air as clean as we can, but please, spare me the Kyoto-like constraints on growth which have already been deemed useless- by the signatories themselves. The fact that we can't control it tells me we aren't the ones causing it in the first place, IMHO.
296. Alec
ANOTHER SWIRL FORMS IN THE LOOP CURRENT....OBSERVATIONS FROM A ROWBOAT INDICATE A PATCH OF SWIRLING CLOUDS THAT MAY ATTAIN SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS THE DIURNAL MAX NEARS..WATCH THIS SYSTEM CLOSELY BECAUSE IT MAY SUCK UP SEAWEED AND DOLPHINS WHICH WILL GET CAUGHT UP IN A HUGE UPDRAFT..THIS HAS BEEN AN UPDATE FROM GOOBER THE CIRCUS CLOWN....
Just a cyclonic circulation no name, when there is an LLC you will see cyclonic circulation replaced with Low level center.
Heck, looks like we may even get some rain tonight....
Upper level cyclonic turning is what they are reffering to.
I guess we've reached the witching hour here on this blog.
Just wondering ... Does the same guy write the forecast discussion for multiple locations? Seems like in Texas recently there were a couple of discussions that were more enthusiastic (?) about the mid/upper low still spinning there. For instance, sometimes discussions say "mid" and others say "upper".
Ok SJ, that's why I'm so clued out - no tv at this end (it would cut into my computer time)..
That RAP water vapior you posted is great guygee. One of my favs.

SJ
304. Inyo
I just spent the last 7 days in the Southeast US around Atlanta and South Carolina. It didn't rain once where i was, hadnt rained recently in Atlanta, and wasnt forecast to any time soon. Apparently they are in a bit of a dry spell.. so maybe a weak depression or strong tropical wave would be more a beneifit than a curse.

as for greenhouse warming, and those who say .5-1C is 'insignificant'... i suggest you consider ENSO

This is a fluxuation of 1-2C over maybe 1% of the ocean that DRASTICALLY effects weather all over the world. This being the case, a warming of 1C over the ENTIRE globe could have much greater effects. It's not something you will notice when you step outside but it could definitely affect storm patterns.
SJ - I like the detail and the nice color map with the corresponding scale at the bottom.

I have your site bookmarked too :-)

Yep bug, should move through my area in the next 30 to 45. Looks like there may be a little straight line winds with it too. Yep winds are up here in front of it.

Be glad you have not seen it snow. That post is the entire comercial. They do not even tell you what the crap is, but they want you to roll it on your forehead......LMAO.....Sorry

SJ

From Accuweather ****Rolls Eyes****

The warm ocean southeast of the United States is one of the prime locations for tropical storm development early in the season. The other two favored places are the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean. Currently we are focusing our attention on the region off the Southeast Coast where there is a very suspicious looking area of clouds. The disturbance has no well defined circulation yet, but that could come in time. The graphic below shows how the flow pattern will set up this weekend which is favorable for tropical development. This will never turn into a big storm, but it could have some impact on the weather along the Eastern Seaboard within the next several days.
sorry wrong blog.
I was looking at the possible MCS dropping down towards the SSW out of the Carolinas for the possibility of rain tonight for folks in GA and amybe Northern FL. Maybe it is already raining over some of you, I haven't checked.
hey Raysfan, does someone come with it?
.. and if so which gender?
313. IKE
Jen Carfagno......
314. WSI
Rays, LOL!
...and what species?
Quote from Accuweather "The warm ocean southeast of the United States is one of the prime locations for tropical storm development early in the season". I would like to see examples please.
iraq wmd found, put on the news!
Bug & Junkie~ ya'll enjoying the hope of rain rain huh:). Guygee would have seen it if he was out this evening, we were making baby clouds for ya'll... Nothing would be there, then a tiny one & as they blew in from the east, moving just south of west, they got bigger & bigger going by. Illuminated on the west side from the setting sun. As they passed the wind would increase (maybe 15mph). I could see the warm land air forcing them to rise in the front & roll as they grew...low to mid-level.
Night all, Rays was right...:)

If you have not seen then please stop by

StormJunkie.com

SJ
woo hoo, we're cooking now!
Skye - Definitely need to get out more! ;-)
Think I'll take Rays advice and go lay down with my cats...probably check back late diurnal max-time...later!
g'night SJ
E. Pacific area is currently not impressive.
There is a center of circ and probably a LLC in this storm. Zoom in as a burst of shear hits is last few frames.
325. jeffB
Global Warming Alert -- please skip to the next post if you're sick of it.

In an earlier post, skeptik posted a list of "articles that dispute the end results of CO2 emissions", in an effort to help us "see both sides of the Global warming debate". I hoped this would finally be a collection of peer-reviewed work that could contribute to the scientific debate on the issue. Alas, no.

Global Warming:
The Origin and Nature of
the Alleged Scientific Consensus
Richard S. Lindzen


Appeared in Regulation: The Cato Review of Business & Government. Not peer-reviewed. Regulation claims to be "objective", and I'm sure from Cato's perspective it is. (Motto: "Individual Liberty, Limited Government, Free Markets and Peace".)

Settling Global Warming Science
Co-Authored by:S. Fred Singer and David H. Douglass


Appeared in the Washington Times. You're welcome to your own opinion about the Times's bias or lack thereof, but it's emphatically NOT peer-reviewed.

When Is Global Warming Really a Cooling?
By Roy Spencer


Appeared on "Tech Central Station", a website/blog[?] whose editors "believe strongly in the power of free markets, open societies and individual human ingenuity". Again, emphatically NOT peer-reviewed. Spencer claims Science and Nature are freezing him out, suppressing his findings. Maybe so, but given the choice between trusting one disgruntled scientist or the editorial and review boards of those journals, I'm not inclined in favor of Spencer.

Hurricanes and Global Warming: Is There a Link?
By George Taylor



Also appeared on Tech Central Station. Not peer-reviewed.

Global Warming and Hurricanes: Still No Connection
By Patrick Michaels


Appeared in Capitalism Magazine. Do you suppose this publication has any particular agenda? Again, no peer review.

Interview with Dr. William Gray
By James K. Glassman

Interview with Dr. James O'Brien
By James K. Glassman


Interview with Dr. Roy Spencer
By James K. Glassman


Another Tech Central Station report. Obviously not peer reviewed; interviews aren't appropriate material for peer review.


Look, you know as well as I do that I could find fifty "pro-greenhouse" "articles" for every one on this list. In fact, that's part of the problem, as you see it. But for this to be a debate about science, we need science on both sides. These articles are nothing but editorials. Your editorials are no more convincing to "the other side" than their editorials are to you.

If these folks think the science of anthropogenic global climate change is wrong, they need to produce their own science that's right, and put it up for peer review, and have it stand up in the face of further research. And whining about being "suppressed" is NOT science.
woo hoo, we're cooking now!

What are you referring to? This is what I thought of (observed at around 5:00 pm today):

Observed at: Ballwin, Ballwin, Missouri
Elevation: 450 ft / 137 m

Temperature: 100.2 F / 37.9 C
Mostly Cloudy
Humidity: 42%
Dew Point: 73 F / 23 C
Wind: Calm
Wind Gust: 0.0 mph / 0.0 km/h
Pressure: 29.43 in / 996.5 hPa
Heat Index: 111 F / 44 C
Visibility: 10.0 miles / 16.1 kilometers
UV: 3 out of 16
Clouds: Few 6000 ft / 1828 m
Mostly Cloudy 25000 ft / 7620 m
Little chilly there Michael! You got Moon Boots?
Thanks for the sluething, jeffB! And I agree, the anti-warming side has yet to produce any science that seriously challenges the theory of greenhouse gas induced global warming..

Lots of doubt being cast by the anti side on length of records, veracity of data, measurement locales, even objectiveness of researchers and scientists but NOTHING in terms of an actual challenge to the scientific priniciple of a greenhouse effect being in place on this planet and being enhanced through CO2 emissions.

You know why there's never been any peer-reviewed challenge - because the existence of a greenhouse effect (caused by water vapour, methane and CO2) is so patently obvious and true. And given that CO2 is one of the main greenhouse gases, inceases in CO2 levels such as we're seeing are obviously going to increase the effect..
scroll down MichaelSTL, it will come to you.. and hey, is that a new record high??!!
That is not an official reading, the airport is located at the edge of the metro area, so the heat island effect is not as significant (several weather stations were recording upper 90s to 100 or more, and many more with 100+ heat indices). The official high today was 95 degrees. Yes, the heat advisory specifically used the term "heat island effect".
Scroll down? Do you really look at the blog with newest first selected (it is awkward for me to read from bottom to top; also, using order posted allows me to just hit the end key to get to the most recent comments, which are at the bottom).
000
ABNT20 KNHC 220213
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EDT WED JUN 21 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN BETWEEN THE BAHAMAS
AND BERMUDA WITH MOST OF THE ACTIVITY CONCENTRATED ABOUT 250 MILES
EAST OF THE NORTHERN BAHAMAS. THIS WEATHER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY DRIFT
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH NO
SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT.

TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH FRIDAY.

$$

FORECASTER AVILA/MAINELLI

thanks weather456, the shear seems to be stripping this system of any chance of enhancing and NHC is reflecting that..

- and yes MichaelSTL I scroll down (only way to do it!).
Somebody just dredged up David's old blog (the 88888888889gg one); I thight that it did not have any entries (if you click on archive, it says no entries).
sowboy - if you use newest first because 50 comments did not work with order posted before, that has been fixed now (I am glad for that).
336. Alec
"sowboy"?LOL ........$5
Ooops... snowboy
I probably also misspelled David's old name...
339. Alec
How do you pull up David's old blog if there isn't even any comments posted?
340. Alec
It says in the directory that a comment was recently posted in David's old blog but how can that be if it doesn't even have any???
Somebody posted on it (I don't know how); if you click on his name in the blog directory, it says "no blog entries", but somebody did post on it - you can click on the last comment link and see his blog saying that Wilma will be a Cat 5 (I think).
342. WxDan
Since we don't care about opposing views about Global warming, I submit that readers should make their own minds up. Here are a couple of interesting links:

http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/harris061206.htm

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/cause.htm

c'mon wxDan we debunked the tendentious CanadaFreePress article the other night..

- and heads up Canucks, tornado watch for Windsor, Essex, Chatham, Kent Co..
you'll have to pay for that "sowboy" libel MichaelSTL - at least a pitcher of beer... LOLOL!
By the way, if you search for David's old 8888888889gg name, you can find his blogs, even though it says that he does not have any blog entries when you click on his name. Here is another blog.
I REALLY liked that 8888888889gg handle..
For what it's worth, someone asked who is Campeche a couple of blogs ago. So I looked it up and campeche is Spanish for logwood, the name of a tree in English. Logwood was a big deal at one time, used to make a red dye. Belize was founded by logwood entrepreneurs. To think I've gone my whole life without knowing this.
good sluething, bappit
- our Bahamas Blob will really be cooking if it can pull in some of that energy from the south and east..
349. jeffB
snowboy wrote:

Thanks for the sluething, jeffB! And I agree, the anti-warming side has yet to produce any science that seriously challenges the theory of greenhouse gas induced global warming..

Lots of doubt being cast by the anti side on length of records, veracity of data, measurement locales, even objectiveness of researchers and scientists but NOTHING in terms of an actual challenge to the scientific priniciple of a greenhouse effect being in place on this planet and being enhanced through CO2 emissions.

You know why there's never been any peer-reviewed challenge - because the existence of a greenhouse effect (caused by water vapour, methane and CO2) is so patently obvious and true. And given that CO2 is one of the main greenhouse gases, inceases in CO2 levels such as we're seeing are obviously going to increase the effect..


Well, the thing is, people are trying to mount scientific challenges. They're even getting the occasional result published. It's just that their claims don't seem to be holding up as well as the opposing claims.

But sometimes I think that if I hear "but the models aren't perfect" one more time I'll scream. A lot of medical research is based on similarly imperfect animal models. I wonder how many of the climate-model skeptics are also opposed to animal testing? :-)
350. jeffB
bappit wrote:

For what it's worth, someone asked who is Campeche a couple of blogs ago. So I looked it up and campeche is Spanish for logwood, the name of a tree in English. Logwood was a big deal at one time, used to make a red dye. Belize was founded by logwood entrepreneurs. To think I've gone my whole life without knowing this.

Oh, wow -- I've known about logwood ever since I got some as part of my Gilbert chemistry set back in fifth grade! Now, that's sad.
Campeche refers to the Bay of Campeche - the southwestern Gulf of Mexico.
I would like to note the record heat expected for the South West this weekend. :-(. There has been a lack of low clouds as of late and looks like the Southwest could be in for a long hot summer.
Ive actually seen some of that wood worked in a sculpture class just a few months ago. Its stunningly red. Thanks bbapit weird how things work.

I think Ill try and find one for my place.
25-26N 75W!
Anyone who thinks switching to an alternative type of energy will kill the economy is far from correct. The switch to a new type of energy will takes decades to complete, not overnight. If the switch were to take place magically overnight, then there would be huge problems. Hundreds of thousands of people would be out of jobs, there would be billions of dollars of lost revenue, and countless other aspects that would kill the US and global economy. Since the switch will take many years to complete, there will be more than ample time for the US economy and the people who will be affected to make the necessary adjustments. All jobs will be replaced and just as we pay for oil, mandatory taxes could be implimented to suppliment the Government and its bodies of the lost income.

Just as Global Warming will not be solved overnight, neither will the switch to another type of energy.
356. Inyo
does anyone know anything about a 'freakishy huge' storm in the south pacific near New Zealand? It was mentioned in the newspaper but id love to hear more expert thoughts on it. It was a cold-core system.
not seeing what you're seeing ProgressivePulse..
Yea PP its behaving strangely building way too far to the S. Its showing up on Cuban radar now. Its being beat to hell but it has that strange tenacious feel that real storms have.
JFLORIDA,

I am new at this but it almost looks like that "blob" is actually pulling moisture in from the SE. Am I seeing this right??
Yep, blob is getting that convection even with the nasty shear.
No reason to get bent out of shape about the models not being perfect. They are just models. I do worry a bit about people thinking that just because current models produce long range results within a certain range that we should assume that these for upper and lower bounds for the problem. I think that could be a very harmful assumption.
These other guys are way smarter -- but considering the water vapor loop I think thats a safe assumption. The problem with this stuff is that it is occurring at so many layers, which to these guys are pressures. Each pressure layer has its own intrinsic characteristics. It difficult for me to understand as much as I would like to - and - I think wear out my originality on the regulars and professionals here.
363. MahFL
I think the shear maybe relaxing a little in the NW part of the Bahamas blob, some convection is moving WSW and seems not to be being sheared too much, anyone else see that ?
good lord, we should be able to edit!
The tiny circulation the NHC mentioned was upper level and now almost non-existant and dissipating. Still alot of action concentrated around the area, I don't know what is up but I am sure we will know tomorrow. I almost have to say shear got the best of this one, but the convection in the area says no.
Normalguy~ I think we might be seeing it reforming to the SSE like lastnight, just bigger. & it doesn't look like it's gonna loose as much convection, to the NE, as it did lastnight. This is the time of night things get interesting.
Your not wearing on us JFL, glad to see enjoyed the model stuff.
This area is being sheared from the Northwest and from the Southeast. Amidst all of this I see the high level clouds trying to build back to the area of 25n75w or close to.
I think we missed NOAA's outlook for July- Sept


as far as drought Fl & most of the gulf looked good for rain. The drought in Texas looked like bad news...

Too busy debating the cause & not watching the signs. The Saudi's saying continued use of oil like this & the oceans are gonna rise is like Phillip Morris saying you keep smoking these & it could give you lung cancer. Get out of denial your addicted to oil. This isn't the only reason we need to go with a clean source of power & it doesn't really matter which reason we make the change for.
Underneath that mess of crap there is circulation.
sorry I don't know how to post a link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-rb.html
Bad news?



Southeast and East Coast = above normal precip; hurricanes = lots of rain. Maybe...
The ukmet, nam, gfs & cmc 00z runs are out. Has it being sheared up. The cmc is being aggressive on rainfall, in general, like most the map 40+cm. I'm going build an ark, lol, in my dreams. nite all.
No more mention of a closed circulation...

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
205 AM EDT THU JUN 21 2006
[...]
ATLANTIC OCEAN...
AN UPPER HIGH ANCHORED OVER SOUTH CAROLINA IS OVER THE W ATLC N OF 27N W OF 76W ACROSS FLORIDA INTO THE FAR NE GULF. THE DEEP LAYERED TROUGH IS BEGINNING TO RETREAT N OVER THE W ATLC AND NARROW N OF 23N BETWEEN 71W-76W. SURFACE TROUGH REMAINS EXTENDING THROUGH 32N70W SW TO OVER THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NEAR 22N75W. SCATTERED MODERATE/STRONG CONVECTION IS E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 90 NM OF LINE FROM THE TURKS AND CAICOS NEAR 22N73W-26N70W. LARGE AREA OF SCATTERED SHOWERS/ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE E OF THE TROUGH WITHIN 200/250 NM OF LINE FROM THE GREATER ANTILLES NEAR 20N71W TO BEYOND 32N66W.
[...]
Earlier today I thought the high coming off the East Coast would push north of the wave and turn it more west, but the high is more longitudinal-oriented than I thought. Also, that is a very large and impressive ULL off to the NE. The high is bridging the trough that came off the East Coast yesterday. I guess there will be no TD tomorrow, but I'll still be keeping an eye on it.

Also, the convection over the Carolinas didn't hold together and drop SSW like I thought it might. Sorry for the people in South GA and N. FL that need the extra rain.

Lucky for everyone else I don't make these predictions for a living.
Posted By: skeptik at 10:33 PM GMT on June 21, 2006.
The following are all articles that dispute the end results of CO2 emmissions. Copy and paste in google and look at each article if you really want to see both sides of the Global warming debate.


You posted a bunch of liars, crackpots and crooks. Why should anybody think they have a "side", other than stuffing wads of oily money in their SIDE pockets?

Even the UN report that is referenced so often had built in errors in the computer modeling that exagerated a lot of the projections of temperature rise in the past century leading to an accelerating of the problem above what is being seen in real measurements today.

Does this mean I am right and you are wrong for what you believe, no, not really. It simply means that there are two legitimate sides to this and most every other debate and that neither side should be dismissed so casually.


You posted a bunch of liars, crackpots and crooks. Why should anybody think they have a "side", other than stuffing wads of oily money in their SIDE pockets? You know, CRIMIMIAL SCIENCE is also a science -- what ever made you guys think you would get away with this crooked business?


Global Warming:
The Origin and Nature of
the Alleged Scientific Consensus
Richard S. Lindzen


Lindzen was just debunked here in Jeff Master's Blog a few days ago, with a duplicate copy posted on my blog so people don't have to wade through 800 replies to find it. Here's a link:
http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScienceCop/comment.html?entrynum=36&tstamp=200606
Richard S. Lindzen Facts Found on the Open Public Internet.
Posted By: ScienceCop at 2:17 AM GMT on June 19, 2006

The exact title of the science hoax Lindzen produced was for the "Cooler Heads Coalition", the same people that brought the phoney CEI ads to TV recently. Who ARE these people, and why do they hide behind front organizations connected to organized crime?

Competitive Enterprise Institute : TASSC Michael Fumento, TASSC Steven Milloy
Competitive Enterprise Institute has received $2,005,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
KOCH OIL Funding Competitive Enterprise Institute = $666,420
SCAIFE OIL FORTUNE Funding Competitive Enterprise Institute = $1,800,000
White Star Oil Fortune (Earhart Foundation) Funding Competitive Enterprise Institute = $90,000
OLIN Munitions & Chlorine-DDT Funding Competitive Enterprise Institute = $230,300
Consumer Alert : (a sub-group of Competitive Enterprise Institute) : TASSC Hugh Ellsaesser, TASSC Patrick J. Michaels, TASSC Michael Fumento
Consumer Alert has received $70,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
KOCH OIL Funding Consumer Alert = $10,000
OLIN Munitions & Chlorine-DDT Funding Consumer Alert = $28,000
Cooler Heads Coalition (a sub-group of the National Consumer Coalition which is a sub-group of Consumer Alert which is a sub-group of Competitive Enterprise Institute) : TASSC Patrick J. Michaels
hosted and financed by Consumer Alert, member and organizer of the National Consumer Coalition. The Coalition publishes the bi-weekly "Cooler Heads Newsletter" in conjunction with the Competitve Enterprise Institute. Current members are: 60 Plus Association, The Advancement of Sound Science Coalition (junkscience.com), Alexis de Tocqueville Institution, Americans for Tax Reform, Association of Concerned Taxpayers, Atlas Economic Research Foundation, Capital Research Center, Citizens Against Government Waste, Citizens for a Sound Economy, Committee For A Constructive Tomorrow, Competitive Enterprise Institute, Consumer Alert, Defenders of Property Rights, Foundation for American Liberty, Frontiers of Freedom, Fund for a New Generation, The Heartland Institute, National Center for Policy Analysis, National Center for Public Policy Research, Political Economy Research Center, Public Interest Institute, Small Business Survival Committee, United Seniors Association, and Women for Tax Reform. MOST OF THESE NAMES ARE FRONT OPERATIONS controlled by others on this list.



Settling Global Warming Science
Co-Authored by:S. Fred Singer and David H. Douglass


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScienceCop/comment.html?entrynum=11&tstamp=200606
How to mastermind a felony science fraud : Actual court evidence presented.
Posted By: ScienceCop at 7:34 AM GMT on June 01, 2006

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScienceCop/comment.html?entrynum=10&tstamp=200606
Fred Singer Federal Court Evidence used in trials of the Tobacco Mafia Godfathers
Posted By: ScienceCop at 7:18 AM GMT on June 01, 2006




When Is Global Warming Really a Cooling?
By Roy Spencer :


Partners, writer team Roy Spencer and John Christy fudged numbers for years on their publications of satellite temperatures used widely by the denialists. They got caught by a sharp-eyed investigative reporter, Tim Lambert, who also happens to understand science. They showed either (1) that they are incompentent and not to be trusted, or (2) they are crooks on the take and not to be trusted. Since Christy is associate of many known crooks proved through court evidence, the appearence of crookedness exists. Whether incompetent or rotten, not trustworthy sources.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/em.php?mapid=561 John Christy's links to crooks.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/index.php?mapid=579
Spencer and Christy's links to crooks.


Hurricanes and Global Warming: Is There a Link?
By George Taylor


http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/personfactsheet.php?id=912
FACTSHEET: George H. Taylor
ORGANIZATIONS
* Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change
* Tech Central Science Foundation or Tech Central Station


Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change : TASSC A. Alan Moghissi
Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change has received $90,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
SCAIFE OIL FORTUNE Funding Center for the Study of Carbon Dioxide and Global Change = $100,000

Involved in the OISM Fraud Petition.



Global Warming and Hurricanes: Still No Connection
By Patrick Michaels


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScienceCop/comment.html?entrynum=12&tstamp=200606
Some of the Court Evidence of TASSC Organized Crime naming Patrick J. Michaels.
Posted By: ScienceCop at 7:43 AM GMT on June 01, 2006

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScienceCop/comment.html?entrynum=9&tstamp=200606
Patrick J. Michaels Refuted with Facts and his bias exposed.
Posted By: ScienceCop at 7:04 AM GMT on June 01, 2006


Interview with Dr. William Gray
By James K. Glassman


Gray involved in the APCO Associates (TASSC Criminals) Organized Crime hoax in 2002.
http://www.climatesearch.com/newsDetail.cfm?nwsId=54
Known associate of several organized crime science fraudsters.




Interview with Dr. James O'Brien
By James K. Glassman


James O'Brien investigation pending... his name appears on many known organized crime science fraud websites used in promoting their cause.


Interview with Dr. Roy Spencer
By James K. Glassman


Tech Central Science Foundation or Tech Central Station : TASSC Patrick J. Michaels, TASSC Michael Fumento, TASSC Steven Milloy,
Tech Central Science Foundation or Tech Central Station has received $95,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
KOCH OIL Funding Tech Central Science Foundation = $25,000
NOTE: Because TCS website runs paid commercial advertising, incomes from this is NEVER reported as charitable gifts by either the donor or receiver. The parent to TCS is DCI PR firm, whose incomes are likewise not reported publically, nor do client corporations necessarily report the payments to the public. A lot of EXXON ads run on TCS webpages, perhaps a disguised form of giving as it's doubtful that EXXON needs brand advertising to get people to fill up at the Tech Corner Station -- if internet ads were proven effective there would be EXXON ads everywhere on the net.

Tech Central = DCI = SwiftBoats Vets for Troooooth.
http://www.exxonsecrets.org/html/personfactsheet.php?id=40
FACTSHEET: James K. Glassman
ORGANIZATIONS
* Tech Central Science Foundation or Tech Central Station
* American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research


American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research
American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research has received $1,625,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
KOCH OIL Funding American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research = $50,000
SCAIFE OIL FORTUNE Funding American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research = $6,251,000
White Star Oil Fortune (Earhart Foundation) Funding American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research = $448,800
OLIN Munitions & Chlorine-DDT Funding American Enterprise Institute for Public Policy Research = $7,022,124
American Enterprise Institute-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies
American Enterprise Institute-Brookings Joint Center for Regulatory Studies has received $105,000 from ExxonMobil since 1998.
OLIN Munitions & Chlorine-DDT Funding Brookings Institution = $1,217,000
KOCH OIL Funding Brookings Institution = $829,400

Haha, nice work there ScienceCop.
Morning all. Looks like some convection may be trying to build over what was the small cyclonic rotation area of the Bahama Blob. We will have to see if this continues through the morning. This system does look much less organized then it did last night. Off to work. I will check in later.

SJ

StormJunkie.com
Posted By: WxDan at 2:48 AM GMT on June 22, 2006.
Since we don't care about opposing views about Global warming, I submit that readers should make their own minds up. Here are a couple of interesting links:

http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/harris061206.htm

http://www.junkscience.com/Greenhouse/cause.htm


TOM HARRIS and his front website canadafreepress.conmen is a LOBBYIST and PR Guy for many oily corporations.

Harris's details were just posted both in Jeff Master's Blog and to avoid wading through 800 replies, was duplicated in ScienceCop Blog.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/ScienceCop/comment.html?entrynum=42&tstamp=200606
Reply to Daveg from Jeff Master's Blog of Gore's Movie.
Posted By: ScienceCop at 6:50 AM GMT on June 21, 2006


TOM HARRIS
[LOBBIEST, PR Stooge]

http://www.canadafreepress.com/2006/harris061206.htm
Tom Harris is mechanical engineer and Ottawa Director of High Park Group, a public affairs and public policy company. He can be reached at lett...@canadafreepress.com

http://www.highparkgroup.com/tharris.htm
Tom Harris , Director, Ottawa Operations
Tom specializes in strategic communication and media relations and has 28 years experience in science and technology in the energy and environment, aerospace and high-tech sectors. He has worked with PRIVATE COMPANIES AND TRADE ASSOCIATIONS TO SUCCESSFULLY POSITION THESE ENTITIES AND THEIR INTERESTS WITH MEDIA AND BEFORE GOVERNMENT COMMITTEES AND REGULATORY BODIES. Tom holds a Bachelor of Engineering (Mechanical) from CARLETON UNIVERSITY and a Master of Engineering (Mechanical - thermo-fluids) from McMaster University.

http://www.highparkgroup.com/team.htm
KNOWN ASSOCIATES: Timothy M. Egan, President, Tom Harris, Director,
Ottawa Operations, Julio Lagos, Director, Regulatory Affairs
Senior Associates: Bernadette Coren, Marlo Lair, Kathleen McGinnis

Timothy M. Egan, has worked as a CONSULTANT in public policy and government relations for over 10 years. He has experience with the public service at the federal, provincial, and municipal levels, and now devotes his time to ON-GOING WORK FOR A RANGE OF CORPORATE CLIENTS ... on influencing public policy, issues advocacy, and fundraising.

Kathleen McGinnis, Senior Associate ... At HPG her practice has included ASSISTING CLIENTS WITH PROMOTIONAL AND POLICY MATERIALS, as well as sector analysis work.

http://www.highparkgroup.com/services.htm
Our Services
We are proud to offer our clients a wide range of services, including:
* policy and strategic consulting
* issues management !!!!!!!!!! Global Warming Issues, we see....
* DIRECT LOBBYING !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
* event planning
* media relations !!!! Getting garbage published for dupes to recirculate...

===============================

In addition more facts surfaced about sleazy Tom Harris:

In 2002 he was employed by APCO Worldwide, a known organized crime fraud arranger with a stable of "whitecoats" to give science-flavored deceptions uncovered by the Tobacco Racketeer trials of the 1990s. APCO created TASSC, a pure-fraud operation which had many of the same science-liars as an event they hosted in 2002 in Canada. Tom Harris was listed as contact for this event. APCO also organized the fraud operation known as "Friends of Science" at the same time.

http://www.climatesearch.com/newsDetail.cfm?nwsId=54

Tom Harris, Associate
APCO Worldwide (Canada
)
phone 613/288-0382
fax 613/565-1937
email tcharris@apcoworldwide.com
web http://www.apcoworldwide.com

Climate Specialists speaking at the news conference:
1 - Dr. Tim Patterson - Carleton University professor of earth sciences (Paleoclimatology specialization).
2 - Dr. Fred Singer, President of The Science & Environmental Policy Project and Distinguished Research Professor at George Mason University and Professor Emeritus of environmental science at the University of Virginia.
3 - Dr. Tim Ball - professor of Climatology, University of Winnipeg and the first climatology Ph.D. in Canada.
4 - Dr. Madhav L. Khandekar, Environmental consultant. 25 years Research Scientist from Environment Canada.
5 - Dr. Pat Michaels - Dr. Michaels is a research professor of environmental sciences at the University of Virginia, visiting scientist with the Marshall Institute and Senior Fellow in Environmental Studies at the Cato Institute, both in Washington D.C.
6 - Professor Fred Michel of Carleton University Department of Earth Sciences

Energy Engineering Specialists:
1 - Dr. J. Terry Rogers, Professor of Mechanical Engineering at Carleton University. He is currently the Chairman of the Research and Development Advisory Panel to AECL Board of Directors.
2 - Dr. Howard C. Hayden, Emeritus Professor of Physics, University of Connecticut.

Not attending news conference but available for phone & email interviews:
Dr. Roger Pocklington
Dr. Sallie Baliunas
Dr. Willie Soon
Dr. John Christy
Dr. Chris Essex
Dr. Roger Peilke
Dr. William M. Gray
Dr. Fred Seitz
Dr. George Taylor
Dr. Sherwood Idso
Dr. David Wojick, P.E.
Art Robinson of OISM
Dr. Herb I. H. Saravanamuttoo
Dr. Robert Balling
Dr. Ross McKitrick
Dr. Philip Stott

A more extensive list of experts available to be interviewed will be presented at the news conference on Nov 13.


============

http://climateark.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=17546

OTTAWA -- Foes of the Kyoto Protocol, including Imperial Oil and Talisman Energy, are sponsoring a gathering in Ottawa today of scientists skeptical of the treaty as part of a last-ditch effort to derail Canada's ratification of it.

Organizers have rounded up approximately 25 scientists and engineers who are prepared to assail the scientific premises underlying Kyoto in an attempt to raise public doubts about the need for the treaty. ...

... "There's a lot of people who are prepared to vote on this even though they don't have enough information -- and that's not a very responsible thing to do," says Evan Zelikovitz, whose public affairs firm APCO Worldwide is organizing the "Kyoto's Fatal Flaws Revealed" press conference. ...

... The speakers are not being paid for their comments, but the cost of staging the Ottawa event is being borne by a group of contributors including Imperial, Talisman and a group of Canadian lime producers.

Producing lime -- used in applications ranging from water and sewage treatment to power generation -- is very energy-intensive, and the federal government's own research suggests the lime industry will be among those hardest hit under Kyoto.


============

More about TOM HARRIS' HIGH PARK GROUP
http://www.stikeman.com/newslett/EnNov04.htm

Timothy Egan, President, High Park Group; Senior Advisor, Canadian Electricity Association

Mr. Egan is president of the High Park Group, a public policy consulting firm that focuses largely on energy issues out of its offices in Toronto and Ottawa. He is retained by the Canadian Electricity Association on a range of issues, including U.S. advocacy (monitoring the U.S. Congress and Administration on issues of interest to the Canadian electricity industry).


============

http://groups.google.ca/group/sci.environment/msg/72bc37c24b8d6cd0?hl=en&

ENEMIES OF SCIENCE WEBSITE has been DEBUNKED HERE BEFORE.

http://www.sourcewatch.org/index.php?title=Friends_of_Science
"... The PR contact is listed as Sheila Roy of APCO Worldwide Canada,
who have been involved in climate change denial since at latest 2002
[3] (http://www.climatesearch.com/newsDetail.cfm?nwsId=54) [4]
(http://climateark.org/articles/reader.asp?linkid=17546).

In email correspondence in November 2005 Albert Jacobs from FoS
indicated that Roy was hired on a one off basis though APCO are
occasionally hired to "do specific jobs for us under incidental
contracts, as the need arises."

http://groups.google.com/group/alt.global-warming/msg/83a6d9058504e010
http://groups.google.com/group/alt.global-warming/msg/6d800713e165bc16
380. WSI
Good morning.

Looks like the blob is just being a blog, nothing more. We'll see. I would like for it to remain a blob and come visit me with about 2 inches of rain. :)


weathercore.com. Drop by if you need some weather links.
WSI, the convection is firing up near the center again, just like it did during the day yesterday. It still bears watching. I still give it a 50% chance of making TD2.

StormJunkie.com-Models, imagery, SSTs and much more. Including WU blogger storm video.

SJ
382. Fast5
What is this all about, 91 degrees at 5:53am in Nebraska?
-------------------
Heat Bursts Occur Across South-Central Nebraska Early Tuesday Morning, June 20th.

Heat bursts are caused by decaying thunderstorms and only develop in an extremely unique environment. The rare setup for a heat burst is dry air directly beneath a weakening elevated thunderstorm. When a thunderstorm is weakening air within the thunderstorm begins to sink. If this sinking air is very dry and high enough it will begin to accelerate toward the ground since it is more dense. Any remaining precipitation will fall through this dry air and quickly evaporate. As the air continues downward, it warms rapidly due to compression.

A heat burst is noted by a rapid increase in temperature, a drop in the dew point temperature and an increase in winds. Here are some readings that occurred this morning.

Lexington Airport

Time Temp Dew Pt. Wind
3:10 am 70 63 Southwest 8 mph
4:30 am 86 48 South 32 mph gusting to 42 mph
5:30 am 81 52 South 25 mph gusting to 32 mph
The peak temperature was 87 degrees at 4:22 am
Holdrege Airport

Time Temp Dew Pt. Wind
3:50 am 72 61 Southwest 10 mph
4:10 am 82 54 Southwest 27 mph gusting to 41 mph
4:30 am 82 52 Southwest 31 mph gusting to 42 mph
4:50 am 81 54 South 23 mph gusting to 36 mph
Hastings Airport

Time Temp Dew Pt. Wind
4:53 am 77 62 South 15 mph gusting to 24 mph
5:53 am 91 44 South 17 mph gusting to 38 mph
6:53 am 84 53 South 21 mph gusting to 35 mph
7:53 am 82 53 South 24 mph gusting to 38 mph
Peak temperature was 94 degrees at 4:47 am
Peak wind gust was from the south at 52 mph at 7:24 am
Kearney Airport

Time Temp Dew Pt. Wind
4:15 am 70 63 South 15 mph
4:55 am 88 50 Southwest 35 mph gusting to 52 mph
5:55 am 82 52 South 28 mph gusting to 38 mph
The peak temperature was 93 degrees.
Grand Island Airport

Time Temp Dew Pt. Wind
6:02 am 79 59 Southwest 6 mph
6:53 am 85 51 South 23 mph gusting to 35 mph
8:13 am 81 59 Southwest 8
Peak temperature was 87 degrees at 7:59 am
Peak Wind Gust was from the South at 40 mph at 6:30 am
The greatest temperature change was at Kearney, where readings went from 70 degrees to 93 degrees between 4 and 5 am. The highest wind gust was 52 mph at both the Hastings and Kearney airports.

Composed by Steve Kisner / Warning Coordination Meteorologist

http://www.crh.noaa.gov/crnews/display_story.php?wfo=gid&storyid=2841&source=0
looks like our bahama blob is heading on vacation in puerto rico! LOL

never would have guessed this track overnight....

still bears watching, as it could do a 180 and head back to the bahama's! LOL
thel, it is not headed towards PR. That is just convection that has been sheared/thrown off of the system. It is a little ENE of where it was yesterday IMO, and the convection is trying to fire near the center, but it is still getting sheared. It will be interesting to see how that convection does through the day.

SJ
That is interesting Fast5. Never seen that before. Learn something new everday. :)

SJ
thanks SJ.... just took a quick glance before i ran out the door this morning.....
looks like it is starting to flare up again....

this little storm may start becoming annoying like ophelia last year! LOL
388. IKE
What I don't get...is the shear forecast on the link provided on WU has the blob in a favorable area. Wonder what gives???
my new blog will be up this morining. To promote my blog i will have some quizzes in my blog.

Today quizz is - what is the most intense atlantic storm between 1995 and 2004? Leave answers at my blog?
390. IKE
Looks like the blob is moving back now to the west.
Just say no to tropical blobs!
Fascinating post F5. We see plenty of collapsing thunderstorms in central FL in the summertime, and in my experience the descending air is always cooler. If the steering flow is weak, a bounday forms around a collapsing storm as a little ring that is like a small cold front at the surface expanding outwards. If there are several of these boundaries, they sometimes collide and fire up new storms.

Your post made me curious on what causes the heat bursts. I found this link with a concise explanation written by meteorologist Jeff Haby, for anyone interested.
Hurricane Mitch?
new blog is up
The small area around the closed circulation identified in yesterday evening's NWS TPC/NHC tropical weather discussion is covered with weak to moderate convection centered at roughly 27.3 N 72.3 W, and seems to be somewhat separated from the main body of convection. In the visible satellite loops, I can no longer identify a closed circulation, although it could be under the convection.

According to this morning's tropical discussion, "The large upper low over the central Atlc is centered near 33n44w with the upper flow as far S as 13n from 31w-60w." This ULL looks to be squeezed on the NW side by an appraoching trough, but the flow on the SW side of the ULL south of 30 N seems to be enhancing the shear over the main body of convection.

According to the early morning AFD-Melbourne FL, "BOTH GFS AND WRF AMPLIFY THE INVERTED TROUGH JUST EAST OF THE BAHAMAS...
SAT/SAT NIGHT...
T-WAVE WILL PUSH CLOSE ENOUGH TO THE PENINSULA TO BRING POPS UP TO SCT AREAWIDE AS DLM MOISTURE INCREASES. HOWEVER...A STORM SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS WILL STRENGTHEN INTO THE WEEKEND AS IT PUSHES INTO THE MIDWEST...DUE LARGELY TO THE ASCENDING RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN H25 JET OVER THE NRN PLAINS. AS THE SYSTEM PUSHES ENE...IT WILL ERODE THE WRN PORTION OF THE BERMUDA RIDGE OVER THE SERN U.S. DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH THE RIDGE WEAKENS...IT IS POSSIBLE THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE MAY MISS THE STATE TO THE NE."

According to the 530 AM EDT THU JUN 22 Offshore Waters Forecast for the SW North Atlantic,
"SYNOPSIS...A TROUGH FROM THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS NE TO 31N72W TODAY WILL DRIFT W TO ALONG 79W EARLY SAT...INLAND OVER FLORIDA LATE SAT...THEN W OF AREA SUN. WEAK 1015 MB LOW PRES WILL FORM ALONG TROUGH NEAR THE N BAHAMAS EARLY SAT THEN MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL FLORIDA LATE SAT AND BE W OF AREA SUN. RIDGE ALONG 31N EARLY TODAY WILL LIFT N OF AREA TONIGHT."
Station 41010 - CANAVERAL EAST 120NM East of Cape Canaveral 28.95 N 78.47 W

2120 GMT on 06/22/2006:

Wind Direction (WDIR): ENE ( 60 deg true )
Wind Speed (WSPD): 13.6 kts
Wind Gust (GST): 17.5 kts
Wave Height (WVHT): 4.6 ft
Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 8 sec
Average Period (APD): 5.6 sec
Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 30.08 in
Air Temperature (ATMP): 80.2 F
Water Temperature (WTMP): 82.2 F

Quoting jeffB:
Slowchaos wrote:

With that statement you seemed to be promoting the idea of either overtly or covertly suppressing free speech by having the news media ignore the contrary view. You attempt to give weight to your argument with the sheer number of those on your side, as if you should be heard more loudly because of numbers on your side.
The sheer number of believers equates to nothing in my book. NOTHING.


It's certainly possible for the vast majority of believers to be wrong!

HOWEVER:

There are lots of people who believe that governments are secretly controlling the weather. Some of them even post here. Do you think "the media" owe them coverage equal to that given conventional forecasts?

There are people who believe that they see faces, buildings, cities, amusement parks in photos returned from Mars. Do you think the media owe them coverage equal to that given NASA researchers?

There are people who believe that conventional medical care goes against God's will, and no illness should be treated with anything other than prayer. The next time there's an outbreak of a communicable disease in your area, do you think the media should divide their time equally between treatment and prevention tips and exhortations to prayer?

Holding a minority belief doesn't make you wrong, but neither does it somehow entitle you to an equal share of the public's attention.


I just now, 4 years later, I saw your reply to my comment Jeff. The faces on Mars, government controlling the weather, etc. have been covered by the media. They don't receive alot of coverage because most people are intelligent enough to see the foolishness in these things and don't show interest for long in these stories. If the general public does not show interest then the news media will drop its' coverage of it - free market, free press and free speech.

What you were suggesting was intentionally blocking the counter view even though there is plenty of public interest in that view - not free market and suppression of the press and free speech.

HUGE DIFFERENCE!!!