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Chris is stronger

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 8:06 PM GMT on August 01, 2006

The Hurricane Hunters found much stronger winds than expected in Chris this afternoon. The 2:50 pm EDT eye report indicated a central pressure of 1007 mb, down 2 mb from the most recent advisory. Most surprising were the winds in the southeast quadrant, which were in the 55-60 mph range. Radar out of Guadeloupe shows this intense band thunderstorms rather nicely. The northern side of Chris is still devoid of thunderstorms due to the dry air and wind shear. The storm's appearance on satellite imagery is improved from this morning, and shows the beginnings of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO) feature typical of strong tropical storms. Wind shear has dropped another 5 knots this afternoon, down to 10-20 knots, so some continued strengthening is possible. The latest set of model runs are quite divergent on what Chris might do, and I think we really need to wait until the next set of model runs is in before we can rely on the computer models. Unfortunately, tonight's flight of the NOAA jet was cancelled, so we'll have to wait until Wednesday night for the jet to fly. Most of the computer models are still dissipating Chris by five days from now.

I'll be back with an update in the morning with the latest.

Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Max Sustained Winds: 60mph
Movement: WNW at 10mph: -3 Diff from 11PM Tue
Central Pressure: 1002mb: Down 9mb from 2AM Tue
Position: 18.5N 62.2W: 2.0N 3.4W Diff. from 2AM Tue

23... a refresher on what the columns are please? Which ones are knots, altitudes, directions... maybe I'm tired but I'm having trouble deciphering that...
Yeah I dunno what those mean either...would like to...
OBS from the northeast corner of the storm pass of the northeast quadrant underway...

Storm Name: CHRIS (03L)
Mission Number: 02
Flight ID: AF308
Observation Number: 13
Time: 0728Z
Latitude: 19.4N
Longitude: 61.8W
Turbulence: Light occasional moderate
Flight condition: In & out of clouds
Pressure Altitude: 5000 feet
Flight level wind: SE (130) @ 41 mph
Temperature: 61F
Dewpoint: 61F
Weather: Thunderstorm
850mb height: 5100 feet
Surface Wind: N/A
Remarks: None
why are we up so late? am i waiting for something?
I'll stay here for the latest...
I'm waiting for the observation that shows it has become a hurricane, haha
if this thing were to keep going at the exact rate its going right now without being changed, it would go to north central fla so lets see how this thing gets affected.
hurricane23 do u agree with jp about the track? hes saying sfla landfall and hes not buying it going into the straits.
What did he say?
I'm waiting for my wife to get up and feed my newborn so I can have the bed to myself LoL. should have been in bed 90 minutes ago.

I'll wait to see what Chris looks like tomorrow. Good night all. This time for real.
he said the track is off and he thinks its going to hit south fla. he doesnt believe it can go into the fla straits. do u agree with that?
do you think it will hit cuba or stay north of it
according to jp, it wont touch cuba
Iam leaning towards a continuation of a WNW track which will bring the Storm very close to south florida.Lets see what the NOAA JET finds tommorow.
hurricane u didnt answer my question
Chris is really wrapping up well now, with a totally tremendous burst of storms at the center. I've seen storms look this way many times before, and more often than not they go nuts. Chris might pull a short RIC.
i didnt thank so but i still think it will hit la
spoke too soon thnks
jp is correct
000
URNT12 KNHC 020754
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/07:45:50Z
B. 18 deg 46 min N
062 deg 26 min W
C. 850 mb 1441 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 131 deg 062 kt
G. 030 deg 014 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 17 C/ 1524 m
J. 20 C/ 1528 m
K. 18 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 15
MAX FL WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 07:41:30 Z
the center wont at least
center wont what?
go over cuba
who has a better chance of getting hit tx or la
as to whether it hits central fla, south fla, or passes under i dont know, we'll have to wait and see
071
UZNT13 KNHC 020756
XXAA 52088 99188 70624 04382 99002 26406 22511 00014 26406 22511
92702 23415 20007 85441 21218 31503 88999 77999
31313 09608 80746
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1875N06243W 0748 MBL WND 22009 AEV 20604 DLM WND 21
006 001855 WL150 23010 081 =
XXBB 52088 99188 70624 04382 00002 26406 11850 21218 22843 20412
21212 00002 22511 11976 22012 22936 19506 33906 20008 44870 00000
55855 31002 66843 31504
31313 09608 80746
61616 AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 16
62626 EYE SPL 1875N06243W 0748 MBL WND 22009 AEV 20604 DLM WND 21
006 001855 WL150 23010 081 =
my cone of uncertainty puts s. fla right in the middle
hurricane23 is there an eye developing?
how strong can it get once it gets into the gulf
based on what story? though i like it
based on the fact that at a rate of 2N 3W that its done in the past 24 hours that would put it in north central fla, and models are putting it south of fla, so im thinking itll be further north than the models
but like jp said, that could all change at the snap of a finger
hows it lookin now?
The 8/2 00z Nogaps now closes off Chris rather
than leaving it as an open wave. Nogaps also brings chris through the southern bahamas and has a direct impact on South Florida and the upper Keys on his way into the Gulf.

CLICK HERE
Guys on the last few frames on Infrared imagery The CDO is getting much better organized.
Hmm...interesting 23. Any more vortex reports? We've got less than a half hour before the next advisory is issued...wonder if they'll find hurricane force winds in time to upgrade it...
Either that or I could also see them issuing a special advisory...
Max Sustained Winds: 60mph
Movement: WNW at 10mph: -3 Diff from 11PM Tue
Central Pressure: 1002mb: Down 9mb from 2AM Tue
Position: 18.5N 62.2W: 2.0N 3.4W Diff. from 2AM Tue

Oh dang, they already came out with the advisory...wow that was early...they did confirm that Chris is getting better organized...1001 mb pressure...windfield up to 75 mile radius now...
I still say it's stronger than 60 mph...it's gotta be...I bet the recon will confirm that sometime soon...special advisory time...
Guys the Central Pressure now is down to 1001 MB.
The long range radar loop out of PR is showing eye!!!
Guys i want to make note that the track has been shifted a bit to the NORTH.
Yeah it does look like an eye feature doesn't it?

Link

Look to the far right of the loop.
North, eh? Hah, just as we suspected all along!
Damn 23 that puts it almost directly over Key West:

Max Sustained Winds: 60mph: Up 20mph from 5AM Tue
Movement: WNW at 10mph: +1mph from 5AMTue
Central Pressure: 1001mb: Down 8mb from 5AM Tue
Position: 18.8N 62.6W: 2.2N 3.4W from 5AM Tue

Link Here is the latest SST map of the Gulf.
ya nhc's new track is what i was saying it'd do earlier
The radar looks like an eyewall forming. Also if you look at the IR floater you will see it too, but you got to zoom in.
they think another 36 hours until hurricane status
Link Let me try that again.
we'll see how this goes tomorrow
Trends will continue North throughout the day.
I expect the track to continue to shift a bit more further north.
I have one question. What is supposedly going to cause Chris to dissipate ? I keep reading this in official forecasts. It's at the point now , I can't see that happening.
Good Call JP! Way to stick with it.
In that case, 23, either the keys or south FL will get a direct hit out of Chris. And by this time, it could easily be a Cat 2 or even a Cat 3. Easily.
And don't say I didn't warn you. lol
At this point in time, nothing will cause Chris to dissipate or even weaken substantially. The only way this was going to happen was if it were to bury itself in Hispaniola and Cuba...but that's looking less and less likely now. The ULL near the Bahamas is trucking westward probably faster than Chris is, leaving clear sailing ahead...
My bet nhc will upgrade to hurricane next update. The storm is tracking north of nhc path. I hope the damn thing doesn't get in the gulf with the sst being wat thay are.
The computer models were running the storm in Hispanola.....I think thats where the dissapation in, at least acccording to Dr. Masters. Most of the computer models are still running the storm south into the large island, but the forecast track has shifted north, again as predicted by the blog.
drews I'd say there's a good possibility of that happening...
Thank you quakeman, kinda the way I'm seeing It.
000
WTNT43 KNHC 020858
TCDAT3
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

AIR FORCE RESERVE RECON POSITION AND WIND DATA THIS MORNING...ALONG
WITH NOAA DOPPLER RADAR DATA FROM SAN JUAN AND SATELLITE IMAGERY...
INDICATE CHRIS HAS BECOME MUCH BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST 6
HOURS. AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY...ALTHOUGH IT IS TILTED ABOUT 12 NMI TO THE SOUTHWEST OF
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER. WHILE THE STRUCTURE OF CHRIS HAS IMRPOVED...
THIS HAS NOT TRANSLATED INTO AN INCREASE IN INTENSITY...YET. A PASS
THROUGH THE CENTER OF CHRIS AROUND 0745Z REVEALED AN ESTIMATED
CENTRAL PRESSURE OF 1001 MB AND AN 850 MB FLIGHT-LEVEL WIND OF 62
KT. WHILE THE PRESSURE IS DOWN 2 MB FORM EARLIER FLIGHTS...THE
FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS STILL YIELD ONLY A 50-KT SURFACE WIND.
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW HAS IMPROVED IN ALL QUADRANTS...AND THE OVERALL
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AS BECOME MORE SYMMETRICAL.

THE MOTION ESTIMATE IS 300/09 KT...ALTHOUGH THE SHORT TERM MOTION
FROM THE LAST SEVERAL RECON FIXES YIELDS A MOTION OF 310/11.
OVERALL...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE STRENGTH AND POSITION OF THE
BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF CHRIS IS FORECAST BY
THE GLOBAL MODELS. THE RIDGE AXIS CURRENTLY EXTENDS WESTWARD ACROSS
THE SOUTHEASTERN U.S. AND INTO THE U.S. CENTRAL PLAINS...AND IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN ROUGHLY THAT POSITION THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD. THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES NOW IN HOW THE MODELS
HANDLE THE STRENGTH OF CHRIS. UNLIKE PREVIOUS RUNS OVER THE PAST
FEW DAYS...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS...ESPECIALLY NOGAPS...NOW HANG
ONTO CHRIS AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE...ALBEIT A SMALL COMPACT ONE. THE
GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...NOGAPS...AND UKMET MODELS HAVE MADE A
SIGNIFICANT NORTHWARD SHIFT AND ARE NOW ON THE RIGHT SIDE OF THE
MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. THE CANADIAN AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE ALSO
SHIFTED NORTHWARD AND NO LONGER TAKE CHRIS ACROSS THE GREATER
ANTILLES. THE LONE OUTLIER MODEL APPEARS TO BE THE GFDL...WHICH
ALMOST IMMEDIATELY TAKES CHRIS DUE WEST ACROSS THE NORTH COAST OF
PUERTO RICO AND INTO HISPANIOLA. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST TRACK IS A
LITTLE NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK...AND MUCH FARTHER NORTH THAN
THE MODEL CONSENSUS DUE TO THE GFDL MODEL BEING A LARGE OUTLIER. IT
SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE
TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 5-10 KT BY 96 AND 120 HOURS...YET SHOWS LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKES CHRIS A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH
THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 29.5C TO 30C SSTS AND BETWEEN TWO
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND
EAST. GIVEN THAT CHRIS IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT
CAN SPIN UP QUICKLY BUT ALSO SPIN DOWN JUST AS QUICKLY...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AT THIS
TIME IN HE LONGER TIME PERIODS...BUT STILL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.

TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS REMAIN IN EFFECT FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE
VIRGIN ISLANDS DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG RAIN BAND
DEVELOPING ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS AND MOVING OVER THOSE AREAS
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/0900Z 18.8N 62.6W 50 KT
12HR VT 02/1800Z 19.4N 64.0W 55 KT
24HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 65.8W 60 KT
36HR VT 03/1800Z 20.6N 67.6W 65 KT
48HR VT 04/0600Z 21.2N 69.5W 65 KT
72HR VT 05/0600Z 22.2N 73.5W 65 KT
96HR VT 06/0600Z 23.3N 77.5W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/0600Z 24.5N 82.5W 70 KT

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Count me surprised if this thing becomes more than a minimal Cat 1 and doesn't recurve before hitting Florida.
I wish they had an edit on this blog, sorry for the bad grammer on the last post. Agreed about the Gulf, but I think Chris is headed there and from what I can see (I am no expert) there is low sheer, at least now.
We need to email the doc. and have him turn this area into a chat room. I hate having to reload!!!
We are in for some serious trouble, guys. I should have bolded that entire thing...but you guys can still read it, haha. Still though, it just shows that things are much much different than they were just 24 hours ago.
I think stewart at nhc reads our posts!!!!
I wouldn't underestimate this storm it has proved the models wrong time and time again, 99L should be dead by now according to the official forecasts.....
Everything that discussion says reflects perfectly what we've been saying all along...and the part that is really worrisome is this:

THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 5-10 KT BY 96 AND 120 HOURS
...YET SHOWS LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKES CHRIS A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH
THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 29.5C TO 30C SSTS AND BETWEEN TWO
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND
EAST.


Doesn't take a degree in meteorology to know that spells trouble.
What NHC just said is, They don't know what this is going to do so keep an eye on it.
When JP Comes back on, he deserves some kudos! He did a fabulous job in the face of higher ups and was right!
quakeman I was think the same thing about the ull helping the outflow.
It makes me wonder what what factor might moderate the SHIPS prediction?
The motion estimate is 300/09 kt...although the short term motion
from the last several recon fixes yields a motion of 310/11.
Overall...no significant change to the strength and position of the
Bermuda high pressure ridge to the north of Chris is forecast by
the global models. The ridge axis currently extends westward across
the southeastern U.S. And into the U.S. Central Plains...and is
expected to remain in roughly that position throughout the forecast
period. There are significant differences now in how the models
handle the strength of Chris. Unlike previous runs over the past
few days...most of the global models...especially NOGAPS...now hang
onto Chris as a tropical cyclone...albeit a small compact one. The
GFS...GFS ensemble...NOGAPS...and UKMET models have made a
significant northward shift and are now on the right side of the
model guidance envelope. The Canadian and ECMWF models have also
shifted northward and no longer take Chris across the Greater
Antilles. The lone outlier model appears to be the GFDL...which
almost immediately takes Chris due west across the north coast of
Puerto Rico and into Hispaniola. The official forecast track is a
little north of the previous track...and much farther north than
the model consensus due to the GFDL model being a large outlier. It
should be pointed out that the GFS...GFS ensemble...UKMET...and
NOGAPS consensus forecast places Chris very near the southern tip
of Florida in 120 hours...and subsequent forecast tracks may have
to shifted a little farther north if those model trends continue.
ack! NHC site temporarily inaccessible! Ack ack! lol
OK it's back now. haha
This is Huge!

IT
SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND
NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE
TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.
Wow it's looking really good right now...definitely the diurnal max going on. Link
2085. Fshhead


Is this not newest model??? It shows new track..... Models keep putting it kinda west??
Is 310 a NW motion? How much further could the models shift?
hurricane23, I just got through looking at the models. It does not look good.
Hahahahahahaha...and silly Steve Lyons kept mentioning something about a WSW track....hahahaha someone go laugh in his face!
2089. Fshhead
drews you got a link to those models???????
It still has some dry air North of PR and Hispaniola but if it makes it to the lower Bahamas with some decent organization and if the shear decreases as predicted, I can smell trouble, even for South Florida. Who knows if it will reach the GOM after...
I think this is heading for Stuart, FL
Morning all. Chris is still very compact this mornings, but it does look like the outflow is increasing on all sides except the south. The convection does look to be over the center now. It will be interesting to see how this plays out, it will also be intersting to see what the models say after the upper air recon that will fly tonight. Off to work :(

See ya'll later

Preparedness Info

StormJunkie.com-Forecast models, Imagery, Marine data, wind data, preparedness info, storm video, and much more.
264
URNT12 KNHC 020924
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/09:17:20Z
B. 18 deg 49 min N
062 deg 44 min W
C. 850 mb 1447 m
D. NA kt
E. NA deg nm
F. 340 deg 032 kt
G. 256 deg 007 nm
H. 1002 mb
I. 17 C/ 1545 m
J. 20 C/ 1528 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.03 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 25
MAX FL WIND 62 KT NE QUAD 07:41:30 Z
2095. IKE
If it is shifted even further north...look out south Florida and central Gulf coast.
More Models. The FSU site does not seem to be updating correctly right now. Try the PSU page. It is the first one in the list.
1000 millibars now.
2098. IKE
Looks like it's going north of...PR and Hispaniola.....
junkie you have the site man
2100. IKE
Down from 1001 to 1000...dang thing is headed toward a hurricane Chris......
2101. IKE
Good thing they took the 2000 posts limit off...

Good morning to all on my first cup of coffee...
I might add, rather quickly! Thanks for the updates 23!
dido for me, 23
Progressive,
What are the chances the forecast tracks will shift even further North and if it stays 310 isn't that more NW, I live in Central FL and the forecasters seem very complacent that it will go through the Keys
Today's patterns will be crucial sporteguy! Keep eye's on it!
Our locals in West Palm put a Question Mark on Sunday Monday based on the progress of Chris.
what part of middle fl???
But 310 Progressive is NW right?
Orlando
2110. IKE
315 is due NW...so it's slightly south of NW.
if you are in west palm, keep both eyes on it.
Thanks Ike
315 is NW so it is just W of NW
Or south, thanks IKE
if Orlando, one eye!!!
Morning ProgressivePulse...what's up? All NHC stuff is dead!
2117. IKE
With all of the models holding firm on the high staying in place...seems like the only question is what part of Florida will it go to...but I may be jumping the gun.

Doesn't look like it's going up the east coast of the US, but rather across Florida..into the dreaded Gulf of Mexico.
one eye haha, if its a wobble then it should move more west, if its not what factors would pull it further NW a weaker High like JP thought?
Top o' the mornin to y'all....delurking....

Sounds like NHC thinks this will be a hurricane, since the forecast is somewhat stronger than the "barely hurricane" SHIPS model. They didn't come out and say it but reading between the lines....

THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS PROBLEMATIC. THE GFS-BASED SHIPS
INTENSITY MODEL INDICATES THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
TO LESS THAN 5-10 KT BY 96 AND 120 HOURS...YET SHOWS LITTLE
INTENSIFICATION AND BARELY MAKES CHRIS A HURRICANE...EVEN THOUGH
THE CYCLONE WILL BE OVER 29.5C TO 30C SSTS AND BETWEEN TWO
UPPER-LEVEL LOWS THAT WILL ENHANCE THE OUTFLOW TO THE WEST AND
EAST. GIVEN THAT CHRIS IS A SMALL TROPICAL CYCLONE...WHICH MEANS IT
CAN SPIN UP QUICKLY BUT ALSO SPIN DOWN JUST AS QUICKLY...THE
INTENSITY FORECAST WILL REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE AT THIS
TIME IN HE LONGER TIME PERIODS...BUT STILL ABOVE THE SHIPS MODEL.

Looks like it's trying to shoot the gap between Cuba and FL. Still don't see an eye. I think it's got another 24 hours to get to Cat 1 status....this board has been worried about this one since it got off of Africa.

PS Kudos to the server gnomes for keeping this place running.

relurking....
Everybody in central FL get ready! this has a Jeane and Frances type track written all over it!
Correct 03, which would exit the ULL to the west in quick fashion. Allowing Chris to travel more of a NW track, shear free and in good conditions.
2122. MiamiE
Please go north! Not into Miami. Although with 75 mph winds my power shouldnt be compromised, but you never know!
All eyes are on the ULL today!
Anyone heard from 456 this morning yet?
My bet is chris will shoot the gap or extreme south florida. In either case, this is not good for miami to the keys area. And not good for the gulf coast. it will explode in the gulf.
Not this morning but I did see him later last evening Randrewl. Morning BTW!
Good Morning all,
im absolutely noobie and in trainig mode but id liek to share my thougths as well :)
I think if Chris makes it in the gulf it will become very powerfull(eddy).

Hypotetical if it hits Florida directly this wouldnt be a huge storm.
Also it propably goes quick through.

But its more likely that Chris, due to his small size and speed drives fast below the keys into the gulf, pushed by the system to the north.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL
234 AM EDT WED AUG 2 2006

.DISCUSSION...SATL WATER VAPOR LOOP INDICATES UPPER LOW E OF CENTRAL
BAHAMAS BEGINNING TO MOVE WESTWARD TOWARD THE FLA PENINSULA.
DISPARITY BEGINS BETWEEN MODELS THU INTO THU NIGHT. NAM SEQUENCES
DIVE UPPER LOW SW WHILE GFS BRINGS UPPER SYSTEM OVER S FLA. THIS
LEADS TO A QUITE IN DIFFERENCE IN POPS BETWEEN MAV/MET AS DIVERGENCE
ALOFT/MOISTURE ADVECTION DIFFER SOME. MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER LOW
DEPENDS ON STRENGTHENING OF THE RIDGE OVER THE E U.S. NO CHANGE TO
RIDGE AND LOW MOVES W. INCREASED STRENGTH AND LOW MOVES SW.
THUS...NO CHANGE TO CURRENT THU PACKAGE DUE TO THIS UNCERTAINTY.

BUT THE UPPER LOW MOVEMENT AFFECTS EVOLUTION OF CHRIS AS SYSTEM
MOVES TOWARD S FLA. WILL FOLLOW NHC TRACK AS ALL SHOULD FOLLOW
THEIR GUIDANCE.
Chris is quickly growing, down to 1000mb. I woulden't doubt a hurricane @ the 11am update.
What a difference a day makes eyy Randrewl! lol.
Good grief! Don't know you saw this.

OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST FOR THE CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL
N ATLC FROM 7N TO 22N BETWEEN 55W AND 65W

AMZ080-021530-
SW N ATLC S OF 31N W OF 65W INCLUDING BAHAMAS...
530 AM EDT WED AUG 02 2006

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING S OF 22N E OF 68W...
...HURRICANE CONDITIONS EXPECTED FROM 20N TO 24N W OF 67W THU
THROUGH SUN...
by the way, if anyone is in doubt about hurricane status soon, check this out.Link
To be honest I was surprised when I got up and it wasn't already a hurricane ProgressivePulse.
Posted By: MiamiE at 10:04 AM GMT on August 02, 2006.
Please go north! Not into Miami. Although with 75 mph winds my power shouldnt be compromised, but you never know!


Here is what 75+ mph winds can do.

Also, I think that the ULL is not producing shear, based on this shear map (which looks way more accurate than any others, given what is happening; the NHC mentions the 5-10 kts of shear that this shows in the tropical weather discussion).
2135. DCESD
Question - Looking for a map/graphic that simply depicts synoptic features (highs/lows, ridges, etc.) affecting tropical systems. Something like the 'Fronts" map here at WU but extending into Carib, Atlantic, etc. I am a county emergency mgr in hurricane country (SC) and want to use it in my briefing emails along w/track maps, etc. to visually depict features outlined in TD Discussions. It needs to be fairly simple one for all levels of readers.

Any ideas? pointers? links?

Thanks!

Ken
In my opinion Randrewl, it is now. But I am the one sitting here knee deep in blueprints, not the one in front of the offical screen.
ProgressivePulse...Heard that!
2138. sails1
Chris continues to gain latitude making it more of a South Fla storm. Does anyone share my thoughts on this?
DCESD - here is a map that shows SLP and low level winds (does not show fronts).
Fox 35's Jim VanFleet said it is moving further South from FL based on each new track? Is he reading the discussions?
Moreso every update sails. More north and stronger seems to be the trend.
sails if it keeps this up it could hit Indian River County or Martin County?
ken, I would say sat. water vapor with surface map (graphic) imposed upon the top?
Notice they are slowing NHC it down alittle now in the keys Monday?
buenos dias still waiting on this thing to take a more northerly jog like the forcasters keep saying
I bet Rico, getting pretty close.
What forecasters are saying a northerly jog?

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
WOW looks like Chris is really starting to bomb according to the last few images.Looks like it also is tracking a little more to the north like maybe NW which means the forecast track will shift to the north making this a south or central FL storm. I say it goes across FL exiting Tampa.
Progressive,
Our forecasters are using older models thinking thats the trend over Hispanola still and dissapating, I'm glad NHC posts discussions and Dr.M has this blog if I was a viewer in central FL I would feel complacent here based on the meterologists here, it most likely won't make it this far north but its a little too close for comfort.
Is there a reason why the CIMSS shear map shows lots of shear in places where this map doesn't? The ULL does not seem to exist in the latter.
Mornin' MrPuertoRico. Bet I'll end without electricity in a while, even if it doesn't rain at all. Typical story of my life. What about in your zone?
CIMMS is 06Z and the NOAA is 00Z. Woulden't think it would be that big of a difference.
Drews... I agree, I saw a discernable eye on the long range PR Radar about 15 - 20 frames ago.. (highest altitude of radar).

I'm seeing some green on the latest funktop which is heavy convection. I'm hoping that dies down quickly after sunrise. Still hoping against hope for a quick weakening of bermuda high and a miracle flight out to the atlantic to play with the fishes.
2154. sails1
Should we expect a intermediate advisory from the NHC at 8:00am?
the local guys here are saying that is going to the north of pr by 90 miles
well i still have to go to work :(
Who are you listening to, MrPuertoRico?
mrpuertorico...That's the way it appears now to me.
The NOAA map has been consistent with showing lower wind shear; here is the 00z CIMSS wind shear. They seem to be based on different data. Where the SSD is from is my guess (CIMSS is GOES derived shear); here is the page it is on.
oh man i loose power in rain or shine power company sucks
2161. IKE
The new GFS has Chris hitting SE Florida as a wave....

How can it be that far off on intensity???

Unreliable NAM has it heading toward SE Florida in 84 hours...as a stronger system.

The key to the 2 models at this point is where it shows Chris headed...
i got my update from the meterologist on noticentro 4
Same here. :( All stocked on batteries and candles already.
IKE...I know I keep seeing that. The problem is that Chris is still such a small storm the models don't recognize it very well. It doesn't fill enough of the grid to be taken seriously.
now i know this was just a far off prediction but whats going on with that predicted august 3 hurricane that the models were showing
WOW...since last night NOAA's midpoint has moved a lot to the right.
mrpuertorico...What the models were pointing out came off Africa last night. This wave there now is the one the models were pointing to. I'm really watching the East Atlantic.
Any chance it can get past Florida and into the loop area of the Gulf of Mexico?
[I'm currently only worried about losing power in the Mid Atlantic with highs approaching 100 F.]
Randrewl -- LoL, I guess the models are an oversimplification. I have seen it grow quite a bit overnight. It fit neatly within one 5 degree square a few hours ago. What's that? 300 nautical miles square?

I think we're already up 20% from that, so the models should catch on this afternoon.
there's an outer band approaching pr
2171. BigToe
SJ- Your site has wx for CHS. Are you in Charleston SC? I'm from Irmo. Just Wondering..
Big Toe
iahishome...That's what I'm thinking. If it is straddling a grid or something like that it won't register correctly. Later today we'll see the models start to go with Chris. Last night TS force winds only extended about 30 miles...now 75.
i knew the track would shift north from last night. a lot of people doubting it was moving more to the north west
cpeterka: I'm currently only worried about losing power in the Mid Atlantic with highs approaching 100 F

Your lack of concern for us in Florida causes me to have a lack of concern for your heat tolerance :)
Latest visible image looks like we got ourselves a hurricane. The early morning sun is definitely casting some eye like shadows there.
rgr ran plz i really need you to keep me upto date on that one here's a note: that prediction was also given by one of the local meterologists here on the island and she said she was worried that was on sunday for her to stick her self out like that was pretty nerve racking for me esspecially when you think that meterologists on tv don't like to do that just thought it was an intersting point
how many of u cannot sleep at night just waiting for the 5 o clock advisory lol..i never wake up this early
2178. IKE
The storm has grown in size with the TS winds out 75 miles from the center.

First visibles on Chris...looks like an eye trying to form on the NW side.
is there a comment limit any more?
The eye-like shadow in the visible is just that - a shadow from higher cloud tops near the center. Link (the reds)
FL Weather... I can't sleep and I'm in California. I can't imagine how you guys feel. Good luck.
can anyone tell me what that swirl is about 45 west in the atlantic??!!
Down here in the lower keys, I'm starting storm preps this morning. To many have come on like wimps and then blossomed just before landfall..
2184. IKE
No comment limit...it was removed.
The comment limit was removed; see Aaron's (WunderYakuza) blog.
2186. cormit
Does anyone have the site that shows the data from the hurricane reconaissance plane as it flies through the storm? I remember from last year it gives lat/long/winds/pressure/etc. in "real-time." Thanks.
Michael, does that look like we're close? Hmm, I'm surprised NOAA hasn't moved their flight up or added one 6 hours earlier. It appears they're starting their 6 hour cycle in about 13 hours if I read the site correctly.
iahishome, im gettin pretty nervous now..last night news stations here were saying it would probably miss us by good 100 miles and it would be just a minimal cat 1, now they are saying to get prepared becuase we may be dealing with a strong cat 2/3 here in south florida
who is saying that flweather? cbs, nbc, or abc?
nbc said it, and wsvn mentioned it could be stronger than predicted
The IR loop does not indicate any signs of an eye developing - yet. Convection has increased considerably though (IR by itself may not show an eye if high clouds are covering it).
mrpuertorico...I'll be watching.
do you think the track will shift even more to the right at the 11 advisory?
ffnowher...Good. You sound like an experienced stormer!
thanks ran and thanks all you wonder bloggers good job keeping an eye out for us in the alley
I'd be nervous too, especially if you live very near sea level. Above that I hear you're supposed to hide from the winds.

During Hurricane Rita, my aunt's house in Beaumont did an amazing number dancing between about 9 falling trees. Worst thing that happened was the garage door had to be replaced (looked like torn paper) and a tree destroyed their RV parking. Not bad considering how neighbors fared. Most houses still have blue tarps, a few were total losses.
The latest microwave imagery is from 5:45z, but it is nearly useless because it is from the very low resolution AMSUB.
your aunt was lucky
FLWeather... I can't get a good look at the swirl, but it looks a lot like Chris did a little over 72 hours ago.

I wouldn't worry about it. Stick to the dog you know barking in your neighborhood. Not the unidentified animal whimpering somewhere in the state...
Yes, she sure was. The only real scare I had was seeing the bus fire containing nursing home evacuees. My mom was a nursing home evacuee.

I later found out it wasn't her bus and they safely rode out the storm about 90 miles inland and 90 miles west.
that would be very scary
OK, gonna go back to sleep before people start waking up around here. Think atlantic thoughts and blow this thing out to sea LoL.
lol, good night
local met. said it could become a hurricane today
yeah WPB, i just saw wsvn say it could become a hurricane as early as today sometime
yeah the local mets are saying the same thing too
good morning all, looks like out little friend is moving a bit more north
URNT12 KNHC 021119
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 02/11:09:20Z
B. 18 deg 58 min N
062 deg 53 min W
C. 850 mb 1455 m
D. 55 kt
E. 45 deg 030 nm
F. 125 deg 067 kt
G. 042 deg 014 nm
H. 1003 mb
I. 14 C/ 1536 m
J. 20 C/ 1547 m
K. 17 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 1345 / 8
O. 0.02 / 2 nm
P. AF308 0203A CHRIS OB 36
MAX FL WIND 67 KT NE QUAD 11:05:00 Z
yea who thinks the track will shift even more north by the 11 a.m advisory?
D. 55 kt = 65 mph at the surface.
TROPICAL STORM CHRIS ADVISORY NUMBER 7...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032006
500 AM AST WED AUG 02 2006

CORRECTED STORM MOTION SECTION

...CHRIS GETTING BETTER ORGANIZED AS IT SKIRTS THE NORTHERNMOST
LEEWARD ISLANDS...
...ADDITIONAL TROPICAL STORM WARNINGS DISCONTINUED...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLANDS OF
ANGUILLA...ST. BARTHELEMY...ST. MARTIN...AND ST. MAARTEN...AND
ALSO FOR PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. AND BRITISH VIRGIN ISLANDS. A
TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

AT 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF ANTIGUA HAS
DISCONTINUED THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR ANTIGUA...BARBUDA...
ST. KITTS...AND NEVIS.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED
BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

AT 500 AM AST...0900Z...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 18.8 NORTH...LONGITUDE 62.6 WEST OR ABOUT 60
MILES... 95 KM...NORTHEAST OF ST. MARTIN.

CHRIS IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH...17 KM/HR...
AND THIS GENERAL MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. ON THIS TRACK...THE CENTER OF CHRIS WILL PASS NORTH OF THE
NORTHERNMOST LEEWARD ISLANDS LATER THIS MORNING...AND REMAIN NORTH
OF THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PUERTO RICO THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
HOWEVER...SOME OF THE STRONG RAIN BANDS ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF CHRIS
MAY AFFECT PUERTO RICO AND THE VIRGIN ISLANDS LATER TONIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 60 MPH...95 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS...
AND CHRIS COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR EARLY THURSDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 75 MILES...120 KM
...MAINLY NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1001 MB...29.56 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATIONS OF 3 TO 5
INCHES OVER THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS...THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS
...AND PORTIONS OF PUERTO RICO...WITH ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 8
INCHES POSSIBLE OVER HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH THURSDAY.

REPEATING THE 500 AM AST POSITION...18.8 N...62.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 10 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60
MPH. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1001 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 800 AM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 1100
AM AST.

Good Morning....
It moved north of me...

But look at it....This is bad news Chris....
weather456, where do you think its headed?
I am really, suprise, this morning...People in Florida, better watch Chris closely....I saw the lastest tract take it into the Gulf as a Hurricane...

Whats going on???????????

This was suppose to be a depression.....

456 iam beginging to get a little worried about chris....I expect the NHC will continue to shift there track a bit more north today.
Hi guy and gals, chris is becoming a storm to be watched, and closely. I've been following storms for 12 yrs now, and I have been through Fredrick, Hugo, Erin, Opel, Danny, Georges, Floyd, and Ivan and Have worked for the EPA for Katrina. Get prepared for Chris. I've been looking at this storm all night, I do not see anything good at all. And I am not a doomsayer type. If you live in Florida, any part, start now. Get food, water, medications, gas and cash. If you don't need them for this storm, you will use it anyway later. If you live in a low lying area where nhc says the storm will come, get the hell out and help anybody around you that can't. If you stay for any reason, have a plan and watch out for the others around you. Long range, gulf coast residents need to really watch this storm. Good night.
hurricane23, do you think the track will be moved to the right?
y do they have the track as a cat. 1 staying at 75mph
2219. nash28
Good morning everyone. Chris has gotten more organized this morning and there appears to be an eye trying to form. Models have been shifting northward and I expect to see this continue at the 11am advisory.
AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY..
WPB met. doesnt agree with NHC track he say it might go further north
IT SHOULD BE POINTED OUT THAT THE GFS...GFS ENSEMBLE...UKMET...AND NOGAPS CONSENSUS FORECAST PLACES CHRIS VERY NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF FLORIDA IN 120 HOURS...AND SUBSEQUENT FORECAST TRACKS MAY HAVE TO SHIFTED A LITTLE FARTHER NORTH IF THOSE MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE.

I think another shift to the north will be coming in the 11:00am advisory if not the 5:00pm this afternoon.
2223. nash28
ALL of Florida, especially southern and west coast of FL needs to be prepared to take action w/Chris.
Chris, is giving me goose bumps, this morning.



Its cloudy and windy here, but no rain......

Weather456 dos it have a pin hole eye?

oh mb is down to 996.4 now and winds 51.kts

cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic/adt/odt1.html

her the link if you want to no where i got that from
2226. BigToe
456- where are you getting radar from?
we are getting gas today
i have a feeling the shutters might have to go up
oh crap is that the beginning of an eye?
link for radar. Link
The CIMSS estimates are only satellite intensity estimates (I have no idea why they show the pressure as well when all other satellite intensity estimates have wind only). In addition, the pressure is fixed to a certain intensity (for example, T3.0 = 45 kts, 1000 mb), which is why it will often be off.
Posted By: BigToe at 7:34 AM AST on August 02, 2006.
456- where are you getting radar from?


What radar?



According to the NHC and Visible loops, Chris appears to be forming an eye.....
this thing is going nuts now weather456

mb is now down to 995.2 wihds 53.0kts
2235. MZT
That is a very normal and healthy looking TS now... I don't look at things too much from a "worst case" perspective, but with 3-4 more days for that storm to climb through warm Bahaman waters, it definately bears watching...
the 8 am adv still says only 1001 mb..how is everyone getting 996 and 995????
Gas today shutters tommorrow. But the question is will I have to leave them up all season here in SW florida?
2238. nash28
I live in the Tampa area and I AM NOT taking this storm lightly.
WHILE NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR HAS WEAKENED TO
ABOUT 5 TO 10 KT ACCORDING TO THE CIMSS ANALYSES...OUTFLOW IS
CONFINED PRIMARILY TO THE SOUTHERN SEMICIRCLE. DRY MID TO LOW
LEVEL AIR...ASSOCIATED WITH A SAHARAN AIR LAYER...IS TO THE
NORTH AND WEST OF TROPICAL STORM CHRIS...THOUGH THIS MAY BE TOO
FAR FROM THE STORM'S CENTER TO INHIBIT INTENSIFICATION.
: FLweather you can find it her
CaneWatcher06, so why does the new advisory tell us something different?
The pressure is NOT 995 mb; see my previous post - the satellite intensity estimate (which is close to the actual wind speed) is off on pressure because not all storms have equal pressure for a given wind speed (for example, Andrew at 175 mph 922 mb, and Katrina at 175 mph 902 mb) and the intensity estimate assumes that the pressure is directly related to the wind speed.
2243. dnalia
I really hope this doesn't go into the Gulf, but it looks like it will. We'll (Miami) either be in the direct path or north of it. IIRC, north of the storm is a bad place to be.
Time to put up the hurricane shutters.
this looks terrible, just totally terrible:

Link
Winds with chris have been increased to 65mph....
7:15pm EDT - Chris has become better organized overnight...Appears to be forming an eye. Shear has droped to 5-10knots over Chris, and no dust is expected to affect Chris....

All Be Safe......

: NellyStormGeeks...I'm with you also. This is still so far away....insanity. The track is going to move around a few more times. I still expect that West to even SW shift in track ahead of us No matter what it might look like it is doing right now.
change 7:15pmEDT to 7:15am EDT*
woah

whats up with that track??
Unfortunately looks like my Vero/Ft. Pierce prediction yesterday is still looking good. This thing has reminded me of Francis the last day or so.
Jaxparrothead's link shows turning into a Low after the Keys in the gulf. The gulf will be fuel for the fire with it's temp. I just can't see that happening.
2253. nash28
I'm sure this has been beaten into the ground, but I just got to work so I have to ask. Doesn't it appear that Chris is moving NW and not WNW?
I don't think that it shows it as a low in the Gulf; I think it is because the NHC's forecast only goes 5 days out and they don't show what it will be after that (it does not have it dissipate, it is just marked as a low, which is what a hurricane is).
Not good at all, but we all knew something would make it into the Gulf eventually.

We are gonna have a rough season ahead of us...
2257. IKE
It's moved .2 N and .4W in the last 3 hours. That is a WNW track exactly that it's moved since the 5AM EDT advisory.
2258. BigToe
456- Where are you getting the radar data?
65 MPH
2260. SLU
THANKFULLY THE LEEWARDS ISLANDS WERE SPARED BY CHRIS AND IT LOOKS LIKE THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND PR WILL FOLLOW SUIT.

CHRIS IS HOWEVER DEVELOPING A TINY PIN-HOLE TYPE EYE ON VISIBLE IMAGERY AND THIS IS THE MOST DANGEROUS TYPE. ADD A VERY SMALL CYCLONE AND A TINY PIN-HOLE TYPE EYE TOGETHER AND WE HAVE A RECIPE FOR A RAPIDLY STRENGTHENING CYCLONE.

IF I WERE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, THE BAHAMAS, FLORIDA, THE GULF ... I'D BE GETTING VERY NERVOUS NOW WITH CHRIS.
Morning all. Looks like the 06z GFS still keeps its northward track towards S Fla, but it still show it disipating prior to getting to Fla. That being said, Chris continues to look better and better and is forecasted to make hurricane status before too long.

Find the forecast models, imagery and preparedness info on the Quick Links page at StormJunkie.com

See ya'll later
actually NellyStormGeeks, all the stations down here and disagreeing with the path. they say the center will move over south florida. its time to let people know, and not tell them at the last minute that theres a possible cat 2 or 3 headed for us. TWC even shifted their track a lot north. theres now even incluse jacksonville.
2263. BigToe
Mornin' S. Junkie,
Are you out of CHS?
pin-hole eye alert ?
it cant move south until it reaches the high..its not even NEAR the strong high yet.
BigToe, What said earlier was from the NHC......

Posted By: Weather456 at 7:31 AM AST on August 02, 2006.
AN UPPER-LEVEL EYE FEATURE HAS BECOME APPARENT IN RADAR
IMAGERY..


But you can find a radar for PR on the NWS site....

If someone can give you a quick link to it....
FLweather...It is also possible that Chris will not do any of what you just said. Today is only Wednesday. Friday will be soon enough to start panicking south Florida!
2269. IKE
I haven't seen/read anything that talks about it turning south of WNW. Seems to be making steady progress to the WNW..for now.
2270. nash28
Nobody can say for sure that it is going to shift back to the south after PR. This all depends of the strength and position of the High.
The high is building above the ULL. It will be there.
Randrewl, i know that is possible. i know for a fact that hurricanes or storms can do many things. its just good to let Florida know what they could be in for. just a little heads up
You can see that models are clearly trending more north....

Free Image Hosting at www.ImageShack.us

2274. BigToe
456- saw nexrad out of PR. Too far away to see an eye. I was just wondering.
Thanks
And yesterday they all trended south! That's how it always is.
the high is taking too long. and iagree with you IKE. i havent seen any talk about the storm moving w or wsw at all. the NHC says wnw is the motion trend. they have been saying that from the start. you would think they would mention it would turn to the w eventually, and you would think their track would reflect off what they say. to me, i dont see a wsw track at ALL on the forecast track.
Yep BigToe, Born and Raised :)
A thundershower is passing through, bring gusty winds and rain......
does anyone have any opinions on the waves in the open atlantic? they look pretty darn impressive to me. shear is low.
do we have an eye yet??
2283. 21N71W
Oh dear will really have to go shopping for supplies. Sunny this morning in the Turks and Caicos but not really looking forward to the weekend ....
2284. BigToe
Thanks MichaelSTL
Does anyone think that Chris could do a Floyd and move up the coast into Carolina? WeatherAmerica was mentioning a TUTT near the Bahamas that could move him in that direction, possibly skirting or hitting near the SC/NC border.

Any thoughts?
some one said that we have a pin-hole eye

pin-hole eye alert pin-hole eye alert
NellyStormGeeks, actually i have been watching every track. last night, broward county was BARELY in the track. thats where i live. so dont tell me jacksonville has been in the track all this time, cause it hasnt.
i even remember my friend going o good look were practically out of the cone.
ok then, all i was saying was that florida should be alerted and you were disagreeing with me.
Anyone here us Hurrevac?
Anyone know what the GFS is forcasting to form off the western tip of Cuba in a couple of days? Also, the gfdl has chris fizzling out over the yucatan....

http://met.psu.edu/tropical/tcgengifs/
2294. SLU
CONCERNING THE WAVES IN THE ATLANTIC ... I THINK DEBBY IS NOT TOO FAR AWAY. AT LEAST ONE OF THEM MIGHT DEVELOP LATER THIS WEEK.
Guys For the first time in Chris's life we can see the outflow trying to develop on the eastern semicircle (especially on the northwestern side).


the gfdl has been acting wierd lately. i dont get it
2297. nash28
Good morning Jax. I don't think the Carolinas have to worry about this one. The high would have to erode for Chris to basically move NNW and this is not a likely scenario.
does anyone know the latitude and longitude of Miami?
IF I WERE IN THE TURKS AND CAICOS ISLANDS, THE BAHAMAS, FLORIDA, THE GULF ... I'D BE GETTING VERY NERVOUS NOW WITH CHRIS.

Maybe I shouldn't even say "good morning", and instead start screaming at the top of my lungs . . . . lol

We have been watching this one here since it formed; these are the storms that are hit-or-miss with us, meaning anything could happen in the next 3 days. Unfortunately I don't see much support for the south after PR forecast. The NHC seems to have the track pretty well worked out. Actually what they have up now is pretty close to what Stewart posted 2 days ago. So I don't have much hope that we will "luck out", as they say.

There is still the problem of exactly where Chris will pass through. Right now I would say all bets are off for any Bahamian island. This thing could, given it's current location, end up anywhere from Mayaguana to Abaco, depending on how those ULLs move and how quickly / strongly the high builds in.

I did some re-stocking of hurricane supplies yesterday . . . even though (right now) Chris isn't forecast to come w/in 100 miles of Nassau.
SLU did you say we now have a pin-hole eye if you are seeing that how small is it
forget it nellystormgeeks, were all just a bunch of people speculating about this storm. i think ill stick with listening to the NHC and their smart predictions
FLweather- westsides the bestside, skynryd rules. I am in Ortega, where you at?
and im not the only one stressing about this storm
im about 20 miles due west of ft lauderdale
im sorry for gettin frustrated too nellystormgeeks
2309. BigToe
jaxparrothead- The Bermuda High SHOULD keep Chris heading South- Central FL (sorry guys and gals in that area. Remember Hugo? The High should keep it on a steady course.
the nhc! bah they said (when crhis was just a blob) that it was a non-threat and would die out this blog was prediciting it would grow hmm who was right the wonder bloggers
-----horray wonderbloggers----
Now Chris does not have to make landfall in Florida to be signifant....So lets leave Florida out for now.....as Hispaniola, the Turks and Caiacos and Bahamas are between Florida and Chris......

These areas are the areas to watch right now.....
2312. Melagoo
NASA must not be too worried about Chris developing into a major storm since they rolled out another shuttle to the launch pad
21N71W,

You know the stores get empty really fast!

Best of everything to u guys down there. Hope Chris stays small and out to sea . . ..
2314. nash28
The GFDL is out to lunch. Hell, ALL of the models have been pitiful since this thing was a wave in the CATL. They are not handling the mid-latitude conditions very well and that is what is the main player thus far.
mrpuertorico, LOL, yeah that is true but im just relying on them for cones, ahaha
2316. fredwx
It looks like Chris has held together and even strengthened somewhat overnight and could reach hurricane strength within the next 24hours. The official track and most of the models are forecasting a path towards the Florida Straits due to the persisting strong Bermuda High to the north. Climatology, however, suggests a more northerly track impacting Florida or points farther north along the US East Coast.
WUBA Historical Tracks


amen 456!
I know all of you in S FLA and the Islands are stressed a bit and I concurr but I have just under 10,000 FEMA trailers here I am concerned about.
2319. SLU
I SUSPECT THAT THE EYE ISN'T PENETRATING RIGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE YET. IT MIGHT BE A MID-UPPER LEVEL EYE FOR NOW. IT IS VERY SMALL .. LESS THAN 5 MILES ACROSS.
2320. IKE
Agree... if you're in the Bahamas you need to be paying VERY close attention to Chris...looks like you're about 2 days from some sort of impact..unless something changes.
i think the NHC is reading our blogs, becuase now the track doesnt even have a cone and it doesnt show all of florida, lol
Weather456 ...Right! Everything before Florida is the most important areas to be concerned about. I live at 27.1N 80.2W. Yeah I'm concerned....but so much will happen before me I can't think about me right now. I'm prepared and stay that way.
Major does not have anything to do with SIZE. Chris could be cat. 5 and not bother NASA if the entire storm was only 50 / 100 miles across. It's looking so much better organized this morning, that I am worried about an increase in strength AND size. Hope Chris doesn't turn out to be the scrawny teen who turns into the muscle-bound grownup . . .
Heading back to work. I'll check in later. Ya'll have a great day

Every one fron the OBX to the Keys needs to keep an eye on this, although it is most likely a S to Central Fla evbent at this time...Things can change quickly in the tropics though.

Preparedness Info....Prepare for the worst and hope for the best
Randrewl,

That track map has been like that for about 35 minutes now.
Posted By: SLU at 5:15 AM PDT on August 02, 2006.
I SUSPECT THAT THE EYE ISN'T PENETRATING RIGHT DOWN TO THE SURFACE YET. IT MIGHT BE A MID-UPPER LEVEL EYE FOR NOW. IT IS VERY SMALL .. LESS THAN 5 MILES ACROSS


uh oh i had a feeling about this could not be good
well iam off to work might be back by mid-day not sure depends on how bad the rain gets here but i doubt it happy hunting oh and guys don't forget about the waves in the far east atlantic keep an eye out on them for me :) thanks---
Sorry that was meant for FLweather.
Well looks like i should not plan on the week off from work here. Maybe going to the Fl area, huh guys?
On the ir image is that an eye forming??
The eye is in the upper levels.....
BahaHurican, why do they have the track like that???????
Any thoughts on Chris' size? Don't tropical systems USUALLY stay around the same size?

My bet is he'll stay small.
If Chris stays small, most likely he will be stronger, For example Charley
i'm back ladies and gents. I have been reading most comments the past few day. Are these models really starting to shift north? I live in Palm Beach Fl and want to make sure this thing hits goes south! Any thoughts?
read! and tell me what you think


If you look at the loop that is linked below this, you can see that Chris is moving more north than expected again. If you put the tropical forecast points on, you can see that Chris's center keeps moving more north.

This is the Link


opinions wanted, please
2339. IKE
The tropical storm force winds extended out 25 miles from the center yesterday and now it's 75 miles out.
2340. SLU
I DON'T THINK THE EYE IS VISIBLE IN THE INFRARED. LOL
New blog!
by center i mean the red convection, cause according to the news stations the center is under the deep red convection********
that sucks flweather! It does look like it me
FL,

Looks like they dropped the track updating to go do something more important, like attend an urgent meeting, or even run to the restroom . . . lol, only kidding about that last one. . . .

If it's still like that at 8:30, I might email 'em.

On the storm size, storms can change in size. Good examples can be found in both 2004 and 2005 (notably Katrina, which almost doubled in size after entering the Gulf).

I'm hoping for a small one, though, which might "thread the needle" instead of ravaging 25 counties and entire island nations. . .
Good morning everyone! You all are doing a good job here, just wanted to say it finally was a pleasure reading, and not hearing any bickering. One of these days the models will start to grap ahold of this, until then...it's old fashion day to day forcasting!
www.seasonalclimateassessments.com For all of your weather needs!! :-D
Chris looks healthier this morning. I would be surprised if he is not a hurricane by this afternoon. As for the track, in my opinion the farthest north Chris could possibly go is Miami. The steering currents will not allow a more northern track. I think Cuba is most likely to get hit and then its a Gulf storm. I can't really get a handle on how strong Chris may get because I honestly didn't think Chris would get this strong in this area.
FSUstormnut, yeah people keep thinking its moving WNW but its moving just a little bit more north then WNW. if you cant see it on the inf, then use the visible, but you can def. see that its moving north of where expected with the tropical forecast points on
the little point is almost out of the convection..chris just keeps moving more to the north
does anyone else understand and see what im saying about the points and where chris is located on the loop?
2352. rxse7en
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/nwatl/loop-wv.html

Watching Chris follow in behind the ULL in the Bahamas, you can see the high moving in, but Chris seems to be dropping in line north of the predicted path.
2353. rxse7en
Cyclonebuster,

Enough with the "tunnels" crap.
Could someone educate me on the term 'floater' in the context of weather? I see it has something to do with the radar, but thats as far as I get.

but if it gets far enough north it will have to be pushed very hard to be pushed down to the straits
The floater's are satellites that can be "floated" or moved to observe a area of interest verses being fixed on a particular zone
The low has finally reached the Bahamas. Its on its way through them. What will happen if the Low gets past florida before Chris gets near??? would it be good or bad?
TampaBay58

Great, thanks. Makes sense!
2361. 21N71W
Bahahurican
thanks, if it does come our way will keep you all posted with live update as long as internet is up. Tidal surge and rainfall our our main worries here.
2362. rxse7en
The high is setting up behind that low and will keep Chris's path south. Path all depends on how that high sets up and how Chris interacts with land in the Caribbean.
T.S. Chris update for St. Maarten (SXM). Thankfully for us, Chris went farther north than forecast. Our internet service went down (probably to protect their system) just after receiving the 11pm coordinates. Still couldn't sleep even though it was dead calm and with very light short periods of rain. It has been a steady rain since about 4:30am? Not heavy. We are facing the "wrong" way in the anchorage towards the SW now. It's OK because there's not much wind it just has the planes coming in for a landing over us which is quite disconcerting :)

Appreciate looking through your blog to see what happened through the night. I hope there won't be much flooding problems but that's better than flooding and wind.

Keep safe guys!
Sheila
s/v So It Goes, Simpson Bay Lagoon, St. Maarten (SXM)
Our sailing blog