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Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Chris is still a tropical storm...

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:50 PM GMT on August 03, 2006

Hi, this is Rob Carver, filling in for Jeff Masters this afternoon.
TS Chris, while weak, is still barely a tropical storm in NHC's eyes.
The hurricane hunters didn't find any winds of tropical storm strength,
but NHC felt it was still possible there were some strong enough winds
in the circulation to maintain it's status. However, the forecast still
calls for Chris to weaken to a tropical depression within the next 12
hours.

TS Chris continues to be very weak and disorganized with the bulk
of its thunderstorms away from the center of circulation. Below is
a satellite-derived estimate of the rainfall rate, which shows this.



Also, radar imagery from San Juan, PR shows no significant changes in the
intensity or organization of the thunderstorms on the SE side of Chris.



Right now, the wind shear around Chris is about 10 knots which is
decreasing which would be favorable for Chris. However, there is
an area of significant shear (about 40 knots) SE of Florida which
would be not be favorable for an already weak storm.

Model guidance is fairly consistent in bringing Chris or it's remnant
south of Florida and into the Gulf of Mexico. Some models, such as the
GFS have Chris dissipating relatively soon.




The August update of the long-range hurricane forecast issued by
Dr. William Gray's group at Colorado State University has been updated here.
The forecast has been adjusted downwards slightly, to account
for less favorable conditions for hurricanes in the Atlantic basin.

The new forecast calls for 15 named storms, which is two less than the May 31 forecast of 17 storms. Gray's group also predicts 7 hurricanes and 3 Category 3 or greater hurricanes for this season, which is two fewer than the May 31 forecast.

Gray's group cites four main reasons for this shift. First,
the sea-level pressure over the tropical Atlantic has risen,
which is less favorable for the formation of tropical cyclones.
Second, the speed of the trade winds has increased, enhancing the
vertical wind shear which tends to weaken tropical cyclones. Third,
the sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) of the tropical Atlantic has
fallen, which lowers the amount of energy availible for storms.
Finally, the SSTs over the eastern equatorial Pacific are starting
to rise. This would tend to cause changes in the upper-level winds
which would generate more wind-shear in the tropical Atlantic.
Of course, we will have to wait and see how accurate this forecast
is. The next scheduled update is September 1.

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

You Guys! Why do you keep saying Chris is no longer a TS? The 5am EDT Discussions says the opposite:
CHRIS HAS MANAGED TO REMAIN AS A TROPICAL STORM ALTHOUGH CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION IS CURRENTLY WEAKENING. A HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS INVESTIGATING THE CYCLONE AND FOUND A 53 KT FLIGHT LEVEL WIND. HOWEVER...THE WIND WAS MEASURED IN A THUNDERSTORM WHICH IS NOT REPRESENTATIVE OF THE ACTUAL INTENSITY. OVERALL THE AIRCRAFT HAS ONLY MEASURED 30 TO 35 KT WINDS AT FLIGHT LEVEL. EVEN THOUGH THESE WINDS DO NOT CURRENTLY SUPPORT A TROPICAL STORM...CONVECTION IS STILL PRESENT AND CLOSE TO THE CENTER...SO THE PRUDENT COURSE OF ACTION IS TO MAINTAIN AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.
1002. ricderr
good morning nash..happy friday to you...

mr puerto...buenos dias...darn them that expect us to actually work...hopefully you can ride them this weekend....glad to hear things are fine with you and here's to the rest of the season being more of the same
Yes but this morning it looked worse with no thunderstorms to the East
1004. stormzz
mainesurfer, the 8am discussion is out....
The 8 AM advisory downgraded the storm to a TD
oops, stormzz, my email hasn't come in yet. Thanks for the hint.
1007. canuck
Let's see, we've gone through denial, and *clearly* anger, so next comes...acceptance? Grieving over a TS only gets 3 stages.

Will the new crop of "stuff" off Africa endure (I can see the cross winds in action on Water vapour loop), or is there anything else cooking around the Atlantic? There will be significant storms this season and I'm glad Chris didn't wind up washing over Haiti or S Fl or the northern Gulf (no offense Texas but I think you'd have gotten through a big event better). Where are the next threats emerging?
guys i am going to work now please i know its hard but can you take your eyes off chris and put your expertise on those approaching waves in the far east atl. please ill be checkin while i am at work august has begun! and there are a few impresive waves pulling off the coast and one about to.
National Hurr Center has the new advisory on their website
Morning Folks-
Personally I don't think Chris is just going to fizzle out, it doesn't seem to have that character-lol. The center appears to be north of forcast point but that could mean little in long term. I believe that the key is where and if it goes across Cuba. If it maintains and intesifies and just glances Cuba then we have to watch out for Gulf. However if it tries to cross bulk of Cuba at it's current strength I doubt he'll make it. It would be a sad ending for such a spunky little storm but a good ending for people on the gulf.
JER
i am posting this again before i go to work this is the navy wave charts for the next 108 hrs out it shows chris producing waves in the gulf
oops forgot the link Link
---lol sorry i need my starbucks---
looks like Chris has has a bad couple of nights in a row! LOL

But as long as we have a circulation intact..... more favorable conditions may be down the road..... or maybe not! LOL



from yesterday, its almost dejavu!


like yesterday..... i would expect Chris to try to regen again today.....
I am post 1000.. sure hope someone comes and updates this blog with a new thread soon!
Developing storms

The storms to the East are really developing
Just wondering why so many of you guys are hoping for hurricanes/tropical systems to strike??? I for one am very happy that Chris was downgraded, I have a friend up in Savannah (meteorologist with the gov't)I frequently contact him to find out what systems will do hoping that the system will spare any coastal areas.....so maybe some insight to your heads?
The storms are not near coc but they could be signs of what to come
mrpuertorico, i definitely see a wave maker in the gulf being forecast and assume it's Chris. I do not believe either that we've seen the last of him. what surfing breaks to you frequent on the island?
In my head is an autistic brain and Autistic people are overly obsessed with something

mine is Weather I love Severe Weather and Hurr and Winter storms and I can not help it so would you please stop preventing me from hoping for a Major Hurr
OK, this time, after a brief recovery last night, when Tropical Depression Chris briefly woke up, and asked for a glass of ice water, and was also given some clear chicken broth, this time it appears Chris really is pining for the fjords
Morning all.

Welcome Hugo. I stayed also. One rough night.

As for folks wanting a storm to hit the coast, I know there are some, but I think most just enjoy tracking these systems. I would also like to point out the age old fact that no matter what someone wants it will not change where these systems go or how strong they are.

Chris is in pretty bad shape this morning and it is likely that he will not make it. If he gets over Cuba then he is done IMHO.
sebastian-how can you call the end of a storm "sad"?! its a storm for crying out loud-some people here are incredibly without a life
http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/at199202.asp


This is Andrews history
Andrew Track

Here is Andrews Track Nothing like Chris
Welcome HUGO!!!! WOW We have alot of people here from SC!! I stayed too. Won't do that again! LOL! Just dropping by to say GOOD MORNING to all of you and Chris....hope that you are gone for good! LOL!
Top 88 signs of weather channel addiction :))Link
Hoping is fine, and by no means do I intend on infringing on anyone's right to post, say, do whatever they want... It was a simple question as to why some of you hope for general destruction of human life and or property (again, this is just an analysis of posts i've read)...i've been tracking systems myself for many years since Hugo came and ravaged my family just west of the Charleston, SC area...since that point in time when they said no tornadoes were associated and i can vividly remember looking out of my back door into the field and seeing atleast 3 twisters cutting through the hay field down into the branch, well since then, weather has been a fascination, yes it may be a rush, I've gone as far as chasing storms out in the plains alongside some professors of meteorology, quite exciting, but i wouldn't wish for them to cut through someone's house and ruin their lives....in case you haven't noticed, insurance companies are companies to make money, not pay out...so many times people get screwed or worse.....so as it's fun to track them, i can understand it over open waters, but what's the voodoo behind dragging them inland?
"Chris is in pretty bad shape this morning and it is likely that he will not make it. If he gets over Cuba then he is done IMHO."

i agree SJ.... the ONLY chance chris has is to regenerate OVER WATER.... the circulation is getting so weak, if it hits land...Sayonara...Chris!
I have Aspergers Syndrome
I have an IQ of 120
Im sorry if you do not belive me
and thank you all for the welcoming remarks, very kind....long time reader/viewer first time poster
GFS hasn't moved in the past 4 runs, consistantly over Key West and Miami with whatever is left of Chris and it seems to have initialized it well in those runs also.
Morning All!
well good morning guys and gals,

This is my frist chance to even get on a computer while I was away from home... Anywho I have been watching Chris all week and for me I am glad he has become a TD...I'm just not ready for another one right now...


Taco:0)
morning all...

Just learning about these wicked weather gods...

I bow before the cumulative knowledge of the room...

base on a percentage, what sort of odds do you give chris becoming stonger? and are there any other waves to be watching?

New Infered

The storms continue to build
1043. ricderr
thelmores...you see that picture of chris...and you expect sally struthers to pop up in the lower corner and say....

only you can save a starving t-storm....for just under 40 cents a day it will get three meals a day..shelter and clothing...and when you donate..we'll send you a picture of you t-storm and we'll keep you updated on their progres.....(teary eyed shot)..please..will you help?
I think Fredrick did this too back in 79 but let me check ...


BRB

Taco:0)
1045. PBG00
Saw that too PP..hopefully we will get some rain from the reminants of Chris..Hugo In a word..or two..car wreck..everyone slows to see the car crash on the side of 95..once people get set on the storm I beleive they want to see it through..I think its facination.some idiots on here do want to see destruction but only a few..most are just tracking. IEven I get caught up in the process..
fldude99-
Thanks I have a life and have gone through three storms in the past two years. I am sorry if my little comment sme how offended you obviously you mistook my comment as hoping for an intesfication as some do, I do not. However I have no control over what is going to happen with these things one way or another, so I do enjoy watching nature at work, as far as I'm concerned it is beautiful to see how things are set up to keep our planet balanced and these storms are just part of the process. I am sorry when one disrupts or destroys the lives of us humans, but I would be sorrier if they stopped because that truley would be the end of life as we know it. Now I have to go to work then golfing then hug my grandchidren in my non-existant life.
Jer
I've been reading the comments and watching all this for the past few days. There has been alot of chatter about the people who want to see a hurricane come through. I don't believe it is a matter of them being mean people who want to see destruction. Bad weather no matter what form is a way people come together. I mean just look at the comments here in the last few days. Would they be there if it was not for the storm? It's the one time everyone is thinking, talking and reacting to one thing at the same time. That in itself is an amazing thing. Bad weather is going to happen no matter what. Can't change it..can't stop it. I don't think people wish for bad things to happen to anyone. It is a time when everyone is together on one issue! That is an amazing thing to see!!! Living on the Gulf Coast of Florida it can get scary but also I see people come together who on most days would not even speak to one another. Something good always come out of something bad.......
THIS IS ANDREW>> REPEATING THE 5 AM AST POSITION...21.0 N... 61.0 W. MOVEMENT TOWARD
...NORTHWEST NEAR 16 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS... 45 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1013 MB.

NOW, WHAT IS chris???
35 mph...1012mb
1052. ricderr
gulf...what you posted is good.and your portion in bold is the main similarity between the two storms..the bigger difference is the conditions that andrew and chris will be facing later this week..with that said..should anyone not watch chris? of course not.to say differently is irresponsible...however to say that chris will be a devastater or like andrew is just as irresponsible
Well said MW. I agree that most folks do not wish to see harm come to you or your property, although to contradict that they do want to see the power of mother nature....

Hugo, How in the heck did you see anything in your field W of Charleston when Hugo came through?

StormJunkie.com-forecast models, imagery, marine data, wind dat, preparednes info, and much more.
1054. datoe
frederic did a similar thing but thats because it hit the islands head on as a ts and then it weakend, it was over the islands for some time
heres the archive Link
Mother nature! As humans we strive to understand, in the process we stumble and make mistakes. Even the NHC can't be expected to be 100% correct 100% of the time, it is impossible.

Be on guard, be prepared and be ready to take action.

Chris is by no means dead, any tropical wave should be watched for development. Warm waters to the west and in the gulf.

Lived through Andrew and the following years of rebuilding. Not pretty, not fun and in no ways cheap.

Any storm, any wave is worth watching. If nothing else to keep those we love safe.

nuf said!
looks like chris may have some serious problems with the ULL to its east....

chris will have to pull a rabbit outta his hat! LOL

CHRIS's bag of tricks may be done!
Good morning all, How about some help with what's next. I'm off on R&R on the 17th to virgin gorda and have limited time online. Some of you seem to know what's up. Keep me posted. I know we have some waves coming off Africa...let's hear more. I haven't seen a cloud in 2 months here.
Datoe, yes you are right Fredrick did hit the islands head on and the track stayed over land untill it got to the gulf...

You just beat me to it...


Taco:0)
Thundercloud- I get excited about that stuff too, but a couple of popcorn showers well away from the center doesn't a big resurgence make.
1060. datoe
srry Taco, i got it first :), but yea once it got to gulf, boom! cat 4 hurricane
Morning Bluwater,

What you might want to think is out of every 10 waves, there is maybe 1 or 2 storms that will form out of it... Then it takes about 3 or 4 days to cross the atlantic and that is from africa to the liward islands...


Taco:0)
I know that the convection needs to be neerer to the center but the convection stated to develop later last night maybe because it is starting now it will develop farther today and maybe convection will develop on all sides of the storm today
New Infered
and Where in this picture is the coc???
If I am right
High and middle level clouds are covering the eye which will induce strengthening
Can someone explain what the colors on the GFS represents; example would be the light green area to the east of Chris and across the central part of Florida. Sorry ahead of time if this is a stupid question or something so simple that I should understand by looking at the model.
Posted By: GulfScotsman at 8:20 AM CDT on August 04, 2006.
ANDREW WILL DISSIPATE:
CHRIS WILL DISSIPATE:

ANDREW WILL DESTROY SOUTH FLORIDA:
CRHIS WILL DESTROY SOUTH FLORIDA:


Ummm... Why is everybdoy saying stuff like this? What happened in 1992 or last year with TD 10/Katrins does not apply to Chris - first, it is not taking the same (similar) path and second Chris it not likely to last much longer.
Thanks Taco,
It is that time of year though so i'm keeping watch the best I can...I'm sure everone here can be helpful tracking anything that MAY develop. I'm 8-9 hours ahead of most on here so I'll check again tomorrow. It's time for a break.
{:^)
To call Chris dead is premature. It doesn't look good now but it is the only show in town. Nothing coming of Africa is worth watching now and their is still a decent chance Chris will get in the Gulf.
GulfScotsman - your good man, I like your style.. I agree..

where theres a will theres a hope...

Andrew woke from the dead, TD10 woke from the dead, can Chris do the same or is it tooo late?
thelmores~ I agree, that ULL to the east is causing some serous problems for chris, really encroaching on his space & that ULL has some lower level winds (floater click HDW-low), hence LL shear. Once in a while 2 systems like that will couple & make 1 larger system. The way Chris has done it wouldn't suprise me, even with the lower level winds in the ULL. Though it looks at the moment the outlook might be grim for Chris's exsistance. This storm has been a whole lot of wait & see, constantly overcoming the odds.
fact is Chris still has a circulation and is still trying to fire up storms around him... I think hes trying to crawl over to the Gulf to save his life...
Maybe Chris will regenerate into weak tropical storm but it will almost immediately run into Cuba. Also, as it keeps going more to the west than the north, it will end up hitting Mexico even it it does manage to survive.
GS-I also do not know! If only we could all admit that.

Morning thel...I agree that the ULL to the E is causing severe problems for Chris. It also looks like the Bahama ULL has finally made it over Florida, although it still looks to be moving WMW, with a slight appearence of a turn to the W in the last few frames.
Chris last gasp. Looks like a push broom is going to sweep it away.
1078. Melagoo
I make for interesting storm watching
StPete, what type of model are you looking at? Sea level pressure, 850mb vorticity, 50mb vorticity etc?...post a link to whhat form of the GFS you are looking at.
SHIPS still brings Chris to a 65kt hurricane in 96 hrs. Me personally, I wish it would develop a little into a good rainmaker and move into Oklahoma and Arkansas and bring much needed rain.
GS, your prediction was wrong, I don't know that you were wrong for making a prediction though. As long as you don't predict and think that you can not be wrong.
hey Ive been using model runs hereLink

where do u get the SHIPS model from?? eh..
SATELLITE IMAGES AND DATA FROM A RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT INDICATE
THAT CHRIS HAS WEAKENED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED
WINDS HAVE DECREASED TO NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.
HOWEVER...THE POSSIBILITY REMAINS FOR CHRIS TO REGAIN TROPICAL
STORM STATUS.


Next advisory 11 am.
1084. ricderr
so then oh great and mighty scotsman.....what shall we do?...the blog gods will not answer our pleas.....can your infinite wisdom....tell us...discounting those that guess either way...those using graphs and data...should they remain silent to their conclusions?
Posted By: StPeteBill at 1:31 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.
Can someone explain what the colors on the GFS represents; example would be the light green area to the east of Chris...


If I am correct, you are looking at the NCEP models and you are seeing precipitation, which is shown in shades of green for the lightest and yellow for heaviest.
listen you shall...regenerate Chris will...fear you not...track is a secret, surprised you shall be
Chris might be on life support..but it is not over until the fat lady sings
This is the model I was asking the question about, http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/gfstc2.cgi?time=2006080406&field=850mb+Vorticity&hour=Animation. I hope this link works.
http://www.weatherunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200603_model.html

Right here.
In that case, the green areas are regions of negative (anticyclonic) vorticity; Chris appears in shades of yellow (cyclonic). Also, you do know that you have to hit the FWD button on the right to animate it (or click on the + button to step through frames).
StPete, that is the 850mb vorticity map. If I understand it correctly it show the curvature of the wind at the 850mb level winds. I think the light greens represent a slight curvature. Not sure if I explained this exactly right or not, so ya'll please chime in.
Thanks STL :)

Posted By: PintailKiller at 1:41 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.
SHIPS still brings Chris to a 65kt hurricane in 96 hrs. Me personally, I wish it would develop a little into a good rainmaker and move into Oklahoma and Arkansas and bring much needed rain.


Acyually, that is 65 mph (it says so on the map); also, I don't trust what the SHIPS model says when most other models dissipate a system.
1094. nash28
Back from work crapola. Miss anything?
Acyually = Actually*
Thanks MichaelSTL and yes I know to hit the FWD button. Also thanks to you as well StormJunkie.
1098. ricderr
whoa there scotsman....it would seem to me..predictions may be wrong..but making them....nahhh...no wrong about that..i of course...like them made with a bit of thought process..but that's my opinion
I'm learning here, being in Arkansas, but relocating to Galveston in the next few weeks.
Poor little Chris, she has worked so very hard and still will not give up...she is breaking my heart...we have been together so long now, I feel as though she is my long lost daugher...I would adopt her if I could...just a thought...
since when is Chris a she...?

Old wise man Scotty is just reliving the Andrew reincarnation and for the newbies that dont know better.

Who would have predicted that Jeanne make that "loop" and come back to hit us in FL??
1103. sayhuh
anyone have the SST from the gulf from this date last year? Link?
If you adopt Chris you might hurt his feelings calling he a she. Aa for his future I don't think we will no for sure untill he crosses Cuba. If Chris makes it intact into the Gulf a hurricane is a stong possibility.
1105. IKE
GulfScotsman....must be some good scotch yer a drinkin!
ric, I think the point GS is making is that predicting is fine, just not trying to recreate your prediction as absolute fact, because it can not be fact because it has not come to pass.

No sweat Pete :). I try to help when I can, but more often end up learning.

Alright Ya'll, I have the day off and am out to enjoy the day. See ya'll later.

StormJunkie.com Quick links page is loaded with many of the most useful links for tracking tropical systems. Easy to use layout is great for finding links when you are away from yoiur pc or if you should be unfortunate enough to loose your links.
I don't know about exact SSTs, but you can find anomalies here (August 2, 2005). By looking at the August 1st map for this year and comapring it to last year, SSTs in the Gulf are slightly cooler but still above average. The rest of the Atlantic is more than quite a bit cooler this year.
ajcamsmom: Poor little Chris, she has worked so very hard

She's a man baby, ya!
Maybe we can just call Chris an "it".

Al right Sayhuh, I'll up date my blog before I leave. Give me five minutes. Nice SST comparison there.
1111. canuck
So, taking a look again at the wider Atlantic, that ocean thing beyond the Carribean..., I see 3 Lows in a row (typical this year, BTW - has anybody else noticed the rows of 3 trend? Beryl was the southernmost in a linked line of 3 Lows, it's happened numerous times in the past month or so - not sure why..) right off Africa, the "last" (easternmost) looking best with pressure at 1008. So I scanned the shear forcast - it shows the environment is conducive for now - down the road, the voyage west still looks bumpy. Anybody able to straighten it out a little?

And my long shot in the Bay of Campeche is bubbling a little - a Low is indicated there at 1012. For some reason I like its chances, but time will tell.

Just another thought on the "3's" observation: perhaps conditions this year favor the development of fairly long troughs (? sorry I am probably using the wrong terms here) which get distorted along their length into ripples - becoming swirls/lows sometimes, and because of the length, 3 tend to be developing. Surely someone has a better grasp of the topic than that! Enlighten me!
Scotsman...
Great posts! I wish more people on here would look at history, appreciate the unpredictability of the world around them and stop making those WAGs on what they think a storm will do.

interesting storm in east atlantic according to this CMC model...Link
1114. ricderr
exactly storm...i'm totally on board with that too...and anyways..those that give their predictions as fact..seem to be the most wrong...

now scotsman...i do have one thing i must disagree with you about however...that fine cuban cigar...chris needs to send it my way.....he's still too young to smoke..and i'd appreciate it more
"Once in a while 2 systems like that will couple & make 1 larger system. The way Chris has done it wouldn't suprise me, even with the lower level winds in the ULL."

pony, thats interesting.... we can marry off chris's LLC to the ULL and get a TS! LOL

definately not a normal "genesis" scenerio!
morning IKE.. how r u?
You can leave your predictions on how many systems will likely form during the month at my blog....
Hey guys, the new models are out and it looks like there has been a shift back to the north. It may not interact with Cuba as much as previously thought.Link
Chris is a boy because Atlantic names alternate between boy and girl. Last name was Beryle
1122. ricderr
dang it.....i personally won't work but for anything but tequilla
Gulf - YOU MAKE THAT JACK DANIELS and you have a contest! Why the fancy stuff - all you need is good ole smooth Tennessee spring cleaned Jack!
Or Tequilla - that's another option - then again, there'a always Bacardi - how about one of each!
Nice comparative photos, StormJunkie!

I knew the Gulf of Maine was warmer this year and those shots just proved it. That's why I've read that the Northeast was destined for a hurricane very soon. It may just "Happen Tomorrow" according to TWC's program. But looking further west from New England, the Great Lakes could possibly be in for a hurricane based on their warmer temps, too. :)
Gulfscotman.. where did u find that archive tropical discussion on andrew? u have a link?
1127. ricderr
looks like to heck with t-storms..let's just open a bar
A bar would sure make the arguments a little easier to take - just buy another round and agree that the drinkin's good!
Check that new intensity forecast too...
Thanks surfer. Yeah, the NE coastal waters are extremely warm. Just updated the comaprison maps in my blog. Stop by and leave your thought on them.

See ya'll later.
SJ
listen you shall...regenerate Chris will...fear you not...track is a secret, surprised you shall be

Ya been watching too much "Star Wars"...

LOL
1132. sayhuh
stormhank - interesting. We shall see.
1134. IKE
I'm doing fine stormhank....apparently GulfScotsman is too....Chris is running on fumes!........although the convection is...
That forecast intensity is interesting... looking at the sat pics, chris looks to be moving due west, right into cuba and his grave..?
30 knots... suggested by the NRL
Just got one. Where do you all think this thing is headed?
1139. ricderr
Link

can't find a satelite picture of andrew at it's weakest but in this report from noaa they give the graph of it's windspeed and pressure...do i at least get a beer?
When you consider how much energy is locked up in a cyclone, even a small tropical storm like Chris, you should never dismiss it as harmless.
Whirlwind for every year, there is a pre-approved list of names for tropical storms and hurricanes. These lists have been generated by the National Hurricane Center since 1953. At first, the lists consisted of only female names; however, since 1979, the lists alternate between male and female. Since Alberto(male), Beryl(female), Chris(male) is not female but male.

I say we all drink the scotch, tequilla, burbon and then we can create our own storm...lol Give the weather channel something to really talk about and the perdictions...oh the perdictions.....
1143. ricderr
hmmm...great idea mama.....will you dance on the tables?
sts100launch.. Yes I know that... I was making that sarcastic comment when someone referred to Chris as a she.


Note to self: TWC is not the authority, is a useless channel and better off watching commercials
whirlwind~ check the floater on RGB. Click on trpl frct pts, you can see the circulation in yellow, convection is white. The circulation has skirted north once again of the last forecast point. Wobbling west for now. Still could be a close call, but my thinking is, chances are, Chris could keep north of Cuba.
i know that their predictions are not always right but i hope that chris doesnt regain strength when it gets over the extremely hot waters of the gulf of mexico.the temps have been in the mid to upper 80's and lower 90's enough to put chris back to a ts
I was starting to miss the weather channel but with gulf and ricderr I'm really enjoying this. All I need now is some of that scotch...or tequila...or rum...or JD I'll take ANYTHING. How about that lonely track heading up the east coast...seems pretty unlikely but I've heard that before. Wilmingnton seems to pull em in sometimes.
1149. MahFL
Convection is fireing again near the center too :).
skyepony-yea that what im watching RGB and Rainbow loop.
In the last frame it looks at tho part of the "eye" shifted north. Maybe its just the formation of the clouds, dont know. If it goes over cuba, Its def a gonner
* 1982's Tropical Storm Chris - made landfall at Sabine Pass and caused widespread flooding as far inland as Tennessee, but total damage was low.
* 1988's Tropical Storm Chris - caused three deaths in Puerto Rico then made landfall near Savannah, Georgia, killing one in South Carolina. However, monetary damage was minor.
* 1994's Hurricane Chris - formed in mid-Atlantic, brushed Bermuda as a tropical storm, then continued north. No significant damage.
* 2000's Tropical Storm Chris - formed several hundred miles east of the Lesser Antilles, but dissipated a day later. No damage was reported.
* 2006's Tropical Storm Chris - currently active
keeps firing in the same spot as yesterday. must be that shear is still there and blowing it to its south
If Chris finally gives up and goes the way of things that might have been, then what's next?
1154. TheMom
I figured Jeanne was coming back but then too I figure every thing is going to come and get us after Charley ripping off parts of the roof then Francis (Thank God we evacuated for that) and then here came Jeanne
Since then I am a compulsive storm preper I have my wood partial up already rest is against the house ready to be put up in a few mins I have enough can goods to last a month and until I forced myself to use it this summer had about 20 gallons of water in the house down to about 10 now.
When you get hit by something like we did two years ago you belive NOTHING the TV forcasters say I come here because I would rather trust my and my child's life to people who disseminate ALL the information rather than those that downplay downplay until it could be too late for rational planning.
When Ophiela sat 60 miles from my home and we were told to just not even worry about it all I could yell at the TV was YOU ARE WRONG MORE THAN RIGHT and be as prepared as possible since with a change to the west how would we evacuate and get those that need aid and attendance in less than an hour?
You would think by now they would have learned the disseminators of tropical information but alas tis not the case!

And yes I think enough of us are showing we do need early information we do want more than a once every 3 or 4 days update on the Verdes Jeasus the same dang repot has been sitting there for 3 days now with the upgrading possible in 24 hours at the end WELL HELLO it's been more than 24 hours tell us what is new is it moving is it just going through development? We do need to know these things My son's B-day party is a Sleepover at a theme park planned for the 19th is Debbie going to be an issue to ruin that like the last two years parties ruined by storms?
You guys are great but man I'd like to jellybean the "Weather Experts" house before a good rain sometimes!
As I said yesterday the blogs activity is directly proportional to the strength of Chris. Hmm maybe we could build a model using these criteria, couldn't be any worse than the existing models. I think Chris-ette or Chris-Lite will skirt Cuba and not make landfall.

Diet Chris - Just one calory, not Chrissy enough!
1157. ricderr
well...he's officially td chris now.....but he's still not a gonner they say....iv fluids in the gulf could be his savior
From that RGB loop, it looks like you can see some whisps of high level clouds blowing generally toward the sw. I suppose that would be an indication of the shear that's going on.
ull over central fla is giving us some pretty good storms this morning
any chance of low working its way down once in gom?
Hello all...while Chris may or may not do his thing, the daily thunderstorm patterns are interesting here in SW Fla. Could someone help me understand the cloud temperature connection to predictable rainfall? For instance, nearly every day, the local forcast says 30 or 40% chance of late afternoon or evening storms. However, many days the sky reveals more like 100% chance by 10 a.m.! And often major electrical/thunderstorms are happening by noon. This is quite out of the ordinary. We used to be able to set the clock by the 4:00 showers. Now, is there a way to tell from the sat images of cloud temperature what to expect? Thanks to all of you who are knowledgeable and provide such helpful info.
Looks like Dr Jeff's *curse of chris* joke with Chris Landsea will hold IF it tangles with Cuba as well as the poor UL conditions that have ripped it so far...
Would be nice to continue the relative calm for a while...
nolesjeff: (long silence)

...Is no one willing to venture a guess?
hi native, don't know the answers but have been seeing your mess on radar... don't envy you the rough ride recently
flanative, im also in swfla. this doesnt answer your question, but have you noticed that they now say 30 or 40% of viewer coverage area will get rain?
::G:: Chick, I wouldn't venture a guess with tropical weather... if the *experts* haven't said much I', just watching it for the local misery it is producing and hoping for the best...
Of course, my sinuses know it's there... big time
wednesday i would have had numerous guesses lol
cgableshurry: Would be nice to continue the relative calm for a while...

I agree. Hurricanes have hurt our real estate industry here in Central Florida with major beach erosion, higher insurance rates...If we could have a relatively quiet season, then perhaps this fall and winter things would improve economically here.
jeff, they gave some REALLY CONVOLUTED explanation for the percentages they provide for expected rainfall and I'm darned if I have ever understood ONE of them...
nolesjeff: wednesday i would have had numerous guesses lol

Hey, cut yourself a break! Not even the PhD's know what's going to happen with the weather!
chicklit, us too in swfla!
Posted By: cgableshurrycanegal at 11:28 AM EDT on August 04, 2006.
Looks like Dr Jeff's *curse of chris* joke with Chris Landsea will hold IF it tangles with Cuba as well as the poor UL conditions that have ripped it so far...
Would be nice to continue the relative calm for a while

Roger that, I need some calm
Hi Gables Gal, see you making a stop here also.

Just marking my page so I will know where I left off in the reading. Hope someone from Dr Master's staff updates this again soon.

Hello everyone.
If the real estate industry would pick up, I wouldn't be sitting here talking to you; I'd be making money!
chick, let's not even GO there on the insurance rates... and trying to get repairs completed? I have friends in the central part of the state who finally completed 2004 damages, now folks here in the south end are frantic to complete repairs, roof in particular, fro LAST year... you know, the BLUE ROOF SYNDROME...
I read where the Keys were able to organize and get some insurance rate relief...
{{{GAMS}}} Making a few quick stops and looking for friendly folks!!! ::VBG::
I know both of us are very happy to see Chris DIE...but still have to keep an eyeball on the situation!
i'm afraid to say what i do
Have you folks checked out Randy's blog, up there with Dr. Jeff's??? Pretty cool stuff!!! A different perspective and at least one of his buds checking in
nolesjeff: You're an insurance adjustor, right?
gams, C hasn't died YET... let's just keep sending out that negative hoo-doo at it!!! LOL
What are the chances Chris won't die?
is it moving west or wnw, to me its wnw and once again a little noth of the NHC forcast track
GablesGal, be sure to shake your hurricane necklace in that direction several times a day; maybe that will work! LOL!!Gams
GulfScots: Can you explain to the neophyte(s)?
noles.....I haven't seen that viewing area percentage but I suppose it amounts to the same thing as 30 to 40% chance of rain.

What puzzles me is how the radar can look essentially the same day after day (last 3 weeks or so) except for the colors indicating the cloud temperature. And yet the prediction remains the same but the storms vary significantly. The same prediction seems to be on tap whether we have sunshine until 7pm or rain and thunder starting at noon. (Like today again....)
Sorry, I meant to say satellite not radar.
Getting right on it Gams!!!
Tropical Storm Chris currently has winds of 40 mph and a pressure of 1012 mb. Chris is located at 20.8 N and 69.3 W or about 125 miles north of ESE of Grand Turk Island. It is moving West at 12 mph. Chris has not degenerated today and in fact has gained organization. Recon has reported 43 kt flight level winds in Chris which support a tropical storm. Currently, Chris mantains a large surface circulation that has quite alot of vorticity. An area of convection has begun to expand from the southeast quadrant of the storm and over part of the center. This will continue to add energy to Chris. Once again, Chris has amazingly mantained tropical storm strength and is continuing to organize. Shear is a large inhibitor now though as well as dry air. Despite an expected break in these conditions tomorrow, Chris will be probably limited to moderate tropical storm strength until it gets into the Gulf of Mexico. Before that point, Chris may bring tropical storm conditions across the Bahamas, Hisponolia, and Cuba, as well as Florida if Chris gets more north. Tropical storm watches are up for Northern Hisponolia as well as the Central Bahamas. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect in the South Eastern Bahamas. All interests along Chris's path must continue to monitor Chris. The heavy rains in Puerto Rico should start to taper off but, will continue in Hisponolia and possibly into the Bahamas. After Chris passes into the Gulf Of Mexico, it will have favorable conditions to strengthen. This is indicated by all computer models. That situation will have to be watched very closely when it happens. I will continue to update.
good guess
how did i see in the field back home? i just looked out there.....it's very rural out where i'm originally from VERY...i'm talking cows across the street instead of neighbors and it's a straight shot to the back yard, haunting image and strange at the same....the mysterious part of it all was as i was watching, the eye apparently moved in b/c as it did everything just stopped, it was the freakiest thing ever.....
THIS SAYS IT ALL

Link
1197. isobar5
GulfScotsman, What exactly do YOU think is going to happen to Chris? Obviously You must have some idea, or you wouldn't be bringing up past storms.
the NHC like to act surprised.. but never admitting to f***ing up. yea like someone said earlier, they are underfunded, but someone there needs to tell the n00b public that a storm can blow up instead of saying just remain calm we dont expect it to strengthen much...haha
chicklit...

I to am in SW Florida on the Gulf. I to am in the real estate industry. Hurricanes have not hurt the market (with the exception of higer rates). Last year as we all know was a big year in real estate. What has killed the market is money hungry, greedy investors who were buying and flipping as fast as they could bet their hands on property. They drove the prices through the roof and then dispeared. Leaving behind those folks who would want to purchase a home for their family but now found they cannot afford it. Once again money in FL has made much improvement.....not....
1200. guygee
What is this? More convection near Chris?
Will you BBQ the crow for me Gulf?
if i understand that correctly, it means we will have hurricane chris in 72 hours presumably in southern gulf?
mgreen....what is the source for that post please?
1203. refill
Dr. Gray said 15 TS. I think that only one could damage every ones life... just only one...Look back Hugo 1989, Georges 1998, Hortense 1996, Jeanne 2004, etc. I live in Puerto Rico and that is my personal experience and opinion.. Thanks
I dont wanna seem mean, but people here need another wake up call. Here in S. FL. things are as usuall. I do talk to alot of people,(im a roofing comp man) and people say we will not get hit this year. No supplies, no propane nothing. People are lazy thats the truth. You will see the same people waiting in 1 mile long lines to get water, when they were told be be ready for at least 4 days.

If you fail to plan, you plan to fail
mamawolf....you said it
mgreen source of your post please
Whirlwind...what part of S Fla? That is not at all the case over here in SW Fla where we still have blue roofs from Charley. Folks are quite prepared and have been since June 1st. Lessons learned...


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 24
HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY REINTENSIFICATION COULD BRING CHRIS BACK TO
TROPICAL STORM STATUS.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1012 MB...29.88 INCHES.

CHRIS IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES
ACROSS THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC...THE TURKS AND CAICOS...THE SOUTHEAST
BAHAMAS...HAITI AND EASTERN CUBA...WITH ISOLATED TOTALS OF UP TO 4
INCHES OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THROUGH TONIGHT.

REPEATING THE 1100 AM AST POSITION...21.3 N...71.6 W. MOVEMENT
TOWARD...WEST NEAR 13 MPH. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH.
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB.

AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER AT 200 PM AST FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY AT 500
PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN/BEVEN
Always listen to your local emergency management officials and follow their instructions

Have a personal hurricane preparedness plan and supplies.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

NEVER PANIC.


Always the best advice!!! Big picture can't give you the specific info you'd need for your particular area.
talking about near Palm Beach. Yea some people still have blu roofs but most are repaired and they deny any more hits. 2 in 04, 1 in 05, so they say we are done.


anyway, Chris looks to have lost his sense of direction. Going over Cuba will hurt you bro, detour to your North...
KatyTex: I like Mike Naso, too; he's very interesting. And the graphics really help.
morning all. just lurking and working. updated the blog all are welcome stop by and leave a comment

Link
think im done here, wait for new blog..
1216. TheMom
THIS SAYS IT ALL

Link


Great set up and gave hope that the system off Africa would most likely go north and stay out to sea
I added to my favorites how often is this updated?
Love the charts and interaction really helps understand what is being presented.
THANK YOU
great job!
Gulf et al: Check out Mike Naso on KatyTex's link.
Link
chris still not listening to the NHC
I DO NOT KNOW

Wow...Gulfscotsman you are male right??...lol

hurricane andrew satellite photos.Link
The Mom: If you put Naso into your favorites, then you'll get the report you linked into unless you click on "latest reports" on the menu bar. He usually broadcasts later and doesn't do one every day.
so what is everyone think chris is going to do, anyone know what the models are forcasting now
Frightening photos stormhank......I never want to see anything like that headed to Galveston. I was 19 when we were hit by Alicia, and I wasn't sure we would make it. The walls in my parents home, which was brick, literally shook.

Scared the weewee out of me.
1224. TheMom
Thanks I'll fix that right now!
Crisis.. latest model runsLink
if anybody tells you what chris is going to do past 48hrs, they are full of BS! lol

looks looks the convection from the se is "reaching" for the center again.....

so maybe we will have a three-peat of development and chop-off! :D
We can see a spec of drk rd on the IR. Please Mr. Chris please dont regenerate.
does anyone think that this season is gonna be a "bust" for forecasters? meaning not going to be very active as they are predicting? Im personally gonna predict 12 named storms 6 hurricanes and 2 severe. but.. I'll probably be wrong LOL
thanks stormhank i dunno if my computer at work but the link doesn't work have they shifted at all the models
1230. nash28
Good afternoon from lovely hotter than jalapenos South St. Pete. I see Chris is giving the NHC the middle finger again. I love a fighter. How is everyone doing this afternoon (or morning, depending on your locale)?
GulfScotsman Always listen to your local emergency management officials and follow their instructions

Have a personal hurricane preparedness plan and supplies.

Plan for the worst, hope for the best.

NEVER PANIC.

Smartest words I have seem on this blog in a while. Thank you GulfScotsman !! Sometimes down to earth thoughts are needed!
the link has http twice...

Link

thelmores- are you high or drunk when you come on here..every post you reply to or make has "LOL" or :D...
Are posts really that funny to you//

LOL<--- was that called for
so the models have shifted north do you think the NHc will shift there future track as well
1234. guygee
Interesting Link KatyTex. So Mike Naso repeatedly says of Chris, "What is it going to do? I don't know!".

Unfortunately for the NHC, the military and meteorologists close to the storm, saying "I don't know" is not an option. They have to make the best forecast that they can. "I don't know" doesn't cut it. Should they issue hurricane warning "just in case"? No, because that creates a large financial burden on people, causes evacuation orders to be issued, and causes panic for no reason. The forecasters would then lose credibility with the public.

Should they look at how weak the storm is right now, barely hanging on, and just ignore it? No, because there is still a slim chance it could intensify unexpectedly and take an unexpected path, causing danger to the public.

I can think of only a couple people here on this blog who have said "Ignore the NHC, I know better!". We all know who they are. Rantings to the contrary are just a strawman.

Otherwise, I don't see anything wrong with offering opinions on this storm and what it might do. It has been a very tough storm to predict, esepcially the intensity, so everyone should keep watch and keep informed of the latest NHC advisories. Remember that the NHC forecasting skill improves cosniderably in the shorter time frames, 72, 48 and 24 hours.

1235. nash28
I seriously doubt the NHC will shift much at all. They are pretty set on Cuba and from the last model consesus I saw, it wasn't a major shift. Most importantly, I think they would only shift if several runs in a row showed a north bias.
Well said WW...I have no pity for Hurricane Procrastinators, they deserve it. I'm ready......Bring it on!!!!!!!!!!!!
i may have just posted a link dont know if it worked. but its a great article done by a guy after tropical storm allison
1239. guygee
nash28 - I agree on that the NHC seems set on the track for now, but it is the intensity that has been the problem. Additionally, if the storm did somehow deepen, that would change the level of the relevant steering flow, and probably alter the track. The track and the intensity are linked; the track right now is based on a weak storm with little to no deep structure.
What are the chances Chris won't die?

Chicklit, please don't say that, it is doing weird things with my stomach to hear that. Very similar to when Andrew, Lili, the K-storm, Rita did, simple upset caused by tension. As far as I'm concerned, you can almost cut the tension in the atmosphere with a knife. That usually happens only with storms that will end up near the central LA coast. Long time lurker here. Too bad Chris couldn't go north on that lone model that sent it to be a proper fish storm, off in the Atlantic.
1241. nash28
Ok, since I have been actually working for once this week, I haven't had a chance to look at the current conditions. Is the ridge still as strong over Chris as it has been the last few days.
NASH28
HERE IS UR ANSWER

Link
"thelmores- are you high or drunk when you come on here..every post you reply to or make has "LOL" or :D...
Are posts really that funny to you//"


yep.... i have a good time, laugh, and make jokes "wherever" i go..... sorry if the fact that i try to have a good time bothers you so, that you FEEL you have to post about it! LOL

1244. Wombats
Katy Tx I'm in Katy also...
well, the convection has reached the COC..... guess now we'll see what happens....

not much that chris could do at this point to surprise me!! :)
1246. guygee
Posted By: nash28 at 4:47 PM GMT on August 04, 2006.
Ok, since I have been actually working for once this week, I haven't had a chance to look at the current conditions. Is the ridge still as strong over Chris as it has been the last few days.

nash28 - I think it is not just the strength of the ridge that matters but also the orientation and the presence of any weaknesses. Overall the current surface ridge is a little weaker but better consolidated and stretching from over the storm all the way to the NW Gulf states at the 1016 mb contour. A 1020 mb High center is NE of Chris. Here is a link to the NWS 3-day surface analysis in the vicinity of the storm.
1247. guygee
thelmores - We are sending a group from the "Wunderground Temperance League" to your house immediately. Please do not try to flee, we only want to "help" you.
WOMBATS

Howdeee Neighbor!!!
1249. guygee
OK, I am talking to myself here...NEW BLOG!
"thelmores - We are sending a group from the "Wunderground Temperance League" to your house immediately. Please do not try to flee, we only want to "help" you"

just tell them to stop by the store and pick up a twelve-pack on the way! :D
1251. Wombats
Howdy!!
Tropical Depression Chris currently has winds of 35 mph and a pressure of 1012 mb. Chris is located at 21.3 N and 71.6 W or about 45 miles of WSW of Grand Turk Island. It is moving West at 13 mph but, jogged NW early this morning. Chris was downgraded to a depression earlier due to lack of convection and only a 29 kt flight wind but, convection has redeveloped. This new convection will likely make Chris a tropical storm again. Chris is forecasted to slowly strengthen now until the gulf of mexico despite expected interaction with Cuba. Shear remains a very bad inhibitor but, will decrease later today. The SST is very favorable for development. The longer range forecast is what follows. Chris may bring tropical storm conditions across the Bahamas, Hisponolia, and Cuba, as well as Florida if Chris gets more north. Tropical storm watches are up for Northern Hisponolia as well as the Central Bahamas. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect in the South Eastern Bahamas. All interests along Chris's path must continue to monitor Chris. The heavy rains in Puerto Rico should start to taper off but, will continue in Hisponolia and possibly into the Bahamas. After Chris passes into the Gulf Of Mexico, it will have favorable conditions to strengthen. This is indicated by all computer models. That situation will have to be watched very closely when it happens. I will continue to update.
NEW BLOG

Link
Im back and I have to tell you that earlier today when the convection started to develope I said that we could see convection develop on all sides and now look what is happenning convection is building on all sides

Convection on all sides
There is a 20% chance that TD Chris could be a Hurricane be 72 hours
thundercloud. I think everyone left and went to that other blog
what is the other blog??
Chris seems to be getting scattered convection around his center but as always the shear is tearing the tops off to the southeast, south. This is just a wait and see process, but I am still sticking to my prediction even though he is a depression at this time.
Tropical Depression Chris currently has winds of 35 mph and a pressure of 1012 mb. Chris is located at 21.3 N and 71.6 W or about 45 miles of WSW of Grand Turk Island. It is moving West at 13 mph but, jogged NW early this morning. Chris was downgraded to a depression earlier due to lack of convection and only a 29 kt flight wind but, convection has redeveloped. This new convection will likely make Chris a tropical storm again. Chris is forecasted to slowly strengthen now until the gulf of mexico despite expected interaction with Cuba. Shear remains a very bad inhibitor but, will decrease later today. The SST is very favorable for development. The longer range forecast is what follows. Chris may bring tropical storm conditions across the Bahamas, Hisponolia, and Cuba, as well as Florida if Chris gets more north. Tropical storm watches are up for Northern Hisponolia as well as the Central Bahamas. Tropical Storm warnings are in effect in the South Eastern Bahamas. All interests along Chris's path must continue to monitor Chris. The heavy rains in Puerto Rico should start to taper off but, will continue in Hisponolia and possibly into the Bahamas. After Chris passes into the Gulf Of Mexico, it will have favorable conditions to strengthen. This is indicated by all computer models. That situation will have to be watched very closely when it happens. I will continue to update.