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Chinese Floods Kill 250 During Past Week: Earth's 4th Deadliest Disaster of 2013

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:07 PM GMT on August 22, 2013

Typhoon Trami hit Southeast China on Wednesday as a Category 1 storm with 85 mph winds, after dumping torrential rains in the Philippines that killed 17 people. Trami's rains are creating new flooding flooding problems for a Chinese nation already reeling from a week of deadly floods that have left over 250 people dead or missing. Twenty-one of the deaths came on Tuesday evening, due to a flash flood in northwest China's Qinghai Province. The deadliest incident came earlier this week, when torrential rains caused the Nei River in northeastern Liaoning province to overflow near the city of Fushuan, killing 54 people and leaving 97 missing. It's been a disastrous summer for flooding in China. According to the July 2013 Catastrophe Report from insurance broker Aon Benfield, the 250 people killed in the past week of flooding in China make this disaster Earth's fourth deadliest natural disaster of 2013. The deadliest was the monsoon flood in India and Nepal in June that killed 6,500; the second deadliest was the severe winter weather that hit India, Bangladesh, and Nepal in January, killing 329; the third deadliest was flooding in China in mid-July that left 305 people dead or missing. China had three billion-dollar flooding disasters in July:

June 29 - July 3, Southwestern, Central, Eastern, and Northern China: $1.4 billion in damage, 4 deaths
July 7 - 17, nearly every section of China,: $4.5 billion in damage, 305 dead or missing
July 21 - 25, Jilin, Gansu, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, and Sichuan provinces: $1.4 billion in damage, 36 deaths

One positive note: Trami's rains are falling over portions of China that are in moderate to exceptional drought. The 2013 drought in China has been that nation's most expensive natural disaster of the year, costing over $10 billion.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Trami taken at 02:45 UTC on August 21, 2013, as the storm approached the northern tip of Taiwan. At the time, Trami had maximum sustained winds of 75 mph. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Workers use excavator to clean up mud after heavy rain hit on August 19, 2013 in Fushuan, in the Liaoning Province of China. The Nei River overflowed, killing 54 and leaving 97 missing in Fushuan. Photo by ChinaFotoPress/Getty Images.


Video 1. Shiman Dam in Northern Taiwan releases gargantuan fountains of flood waters on August 22, 2013, after Typhoon Trami dumped over 300 mm (11.81") of rain in 24 hours. Video taken by storm chaser James Reynolds, and brought to my attention by wunderground member Robert Speta.

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical disturbances of note in the Atlantic today. This morning's 00Z run of the Navy's NAVGEM model called for formation of a tropical storm early next week midway between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands, from a tropical wave expected to emerge from the coast of Africa on Friday. However, this forecast is dubious, as none of the other models is calling for tropical cyclone formation in the Atlantic during the coming week. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by dry, stable air, and a new outbreak of dust and dry air will exit the coast of Africa this weekend, keeping the Tropical Atlantic dry though at least Thursday, August 29. Dry air coming off the coast of Africa may abate some after that, as the long-range models call for the Azores High to shift more to the northeast. An upper level low pressure system is also likely to dig southwards from the Azores during the middle of next week, bringing high wind shear to the tropical Atlantic between Africa and the Lesser Antilles Islands. The NAVGEM also predicted that a tropical storm would form in the Southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche early next week, but this also seems unlikely, due to high wind shear from from an upper level low, plus a dry northeasterly flow. The best chance of development this month in the Atlantic would appear to be from a tropical wave predicted to move off the coast of Africa on August 29.

In the Eastern Pacific, Tropical Depression 9-E has formed, about 390 miles SSW of Cabo San Lucas, Mexico. Cold waters off the coast of Baja California will likely keep TD 9-E from strengthening into a hurricane, and the storm is not expected to make landfall in Mexico. However, moisture from TD 9-E will stream into Northwest Mexico and possibly the Southwest U.S. 3 - 5 days from now, which could triggering flash flooding. The European and GFS models predict formation of a second tropical storm that will follow a similar path to TD 9-E late next week, along the west coast of the Baja Peninsula.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1001. Patrap
Thanx Largo, Im hoping, as itsa lots 90F here in Heat Index easily,

Have 2 Window AC's Blowing and the Central.
1002. LargoFl
18z Nam at 42 hours.....................
Quoting 987. LAbonbon:


Check out the link (Youtube link from History Channel). In particular the barges that came back out later. That part amazed me.

Link
Thanks for the link. I was in the Delcombe canal unloading shrimp a week before that happened. It is still hard to believe no one got killed.
1004. LargoFl
Quoting 1001. Patrap:
Thanx Largo, Im hoping, as itsa lots 90F here in Heat Index easily,

Have 2 Window AC's Blowing and the Central.
ok, i have to tell ya..these storms really cool things down alot.
Quoting 998. jazzygal:
Must be a Full Moon thing! I wish everyone could just give their opinion without being criticized for it. Many of us learn from you guys and appreciate all that you do. Hope no one leaves! We would all loose! Could we just move on. I'm looking at that thing in the Gulf. Hope they are right!


What are they saying about it?
1006. sar2401
Quoting TomTaylor:
And another point of clarity...NHC doesn't release official forecasts for invests.

Quite true, even though that rather important point got overlooked by some who thought 92L was going to turn into something. Until it's a TD, there is no official forecast, track, or cone. There were plenty of terrible models that people were hanging their hats on, even when the actual behavior of 92L showed that models couldn't possibly be correct. That's one of the reasons why I've decided I'm not even going to look at models that this current 10% pile of junk in the Gulf will generate. If it get to be a TD, then we'll at least have dome decent models. Otherwise, it's just a shouting match about which model, in the writer's opinion is the least worse.
1007. yoboi
Quoting 987. LAbonbon:


Check out the link (Youtube link from History Channel). In particular the barges that came back out later. That part amazed me.

Link


thanks for the post...
Quoting 1003. captainmark:
Thanks for the link. I was in the Delcombe canal unloading shrimp a week before that happened. It is still hard to believe no one got killed.


I know, that is the upside of it. I saw there are additional Youtube videos about it when I saw this one, if you're interested. All I did was search on 'Lake Peigneur'.
Quoting 968. Drakoen:
lol. I guess we will not move on. I'm done contributing.
I haven't read back any pages, and honestly I really don't care, but if people are getting all emotional over some petty jokes online, I think it's time for some posters to sign off.
1010. Patrap
Quoting 1004. LargoFl:
ok, i have to tell ya..these storms really cool things down alot.


A simple inquiry for my ongoing project .

And please, on this I'm actually a tad serious Largo.

Have you, personally,noted the Storms being Louder, more Precip, and more, electrical activity..or heard anyone mention it to you as well?

I ask you cuz you seem to have a great observing ability and reporting of it to us here.

Which I feel is Always good as it gives us some insight, as I do,here, with our unique Location in NOLA.

Quoting 1004. LargoFl:
ok, i have to tell ya..these storms really cool things down alot.


Gets all them horse flies and mosquitos all excited, too.
1012. LargoFl
Quoting 1010. Patrap:


A simple inquiry for my ongoing project .

And please, on this I'm actually a tad serious Largo.

Have you, personally,noted the Storms being Louder, more Precip, and more, electrical activity..or heard anyone mention it to you as well?

I ask you cuz you seem to have a great observing ability and reporting of it to us here.

Which I feel is Always good as it gives us some insight, as I do,here, with our unique Location in NOLA.

yes indeed..more electrical energy as in Lightning..yesterday we had from that storm in the gulf now..almost 500 strikes in 25 minutes..continous lightning..todays storm..127 strikes in a half hour..
Quoting 1005. TexasHurricane05:


What are they saying about it?


They are just saying, low pressure, moving west, more rain. Living in NOLA, I have seen things change fast. Always keep an eye on it, as we do.
Quoting 967. Dakster:
Hopefully Lake O doesn't start to rise again. I see that they stopped releasing as much water for the time being.

Although now is when a tropical storm or moisture will park itself over the Lake...
September is the wettest month of the year in South Fl.
If we can get thru about 3-4 more weeks here interested FL panhandle, we may be out of the woods for another season. I love a boring h season
Quoting 1013. jazzygal:


They are just saying, low pressure, moving west, more rain. Living in NOLA, I have seen things change fast. Always keep an eye on it, as we do.


ok, thanks. I will keep an eye out in case of any changes.
1017. LargoFl
Quoting 1000. Patrap:




This photo made me laugh. Was it in "My Big Fat Greek Wedding' that they used Windex for any and all ailments?
Quoting 1010. Patrap:


A simple inquiry for my ongoing project .

And please, on this I'm actually a tad serious Largo.

Have you, personally,noted the Storms being Louder, more Precip, and more, electrical activity..or heard anyone mention it to you as well?

I ask you cuz you seem to have a great observing ability and reporting of it to us here.

Which I feel is Always good as it gives us some insight, as I do,here, with our unique Location in NOLA.



Forgive me for intruding, I am intrigued by your question and the answer. Largo affirmed there has been more intensity, to put it my own terms, but in comparison to what given data?

Your question implies atmospheric change.
Quoting 820. Drakoen:


You know nothing about what actual meteorology is.

You are JFV !!!
Quoting 897. Drakoen:


Actually the beauty of this blog is that it is not a professional environment. There is no boss or supervisor, and I can express myself freely within the confines of the rules of this site and sometimes without lol. I can do this anonymously, as no one will ever find out who I actually am, without obstructing my real life.


I have a degree in Sharknadoes.
1022. LargoFl
1023. GatorWX
Couldn't resist. To those who are level, asking questions, not trying to be anything they either are or aren't. Thanks. It's you that benefits our situation. I want to say thanks. To those that think they're better, keep going to school, keep listening. You'll get it some day. It's comical honestly and shows a lack of self esteem/intellectual ability that people pick up on. I'm not level enough as some to keep my mouth shut. You're not better than anything. I taught my dog to do lots of tricks. Get it?
I don't recall a time when I saw the GOMEX this open for business. It is rich with moisture and heat. I am more concerned with what is going on outside the door.
1025. GatorWX
Largo, thanks.
1026. Grothar
Quoting 1014. unknowncomic:
September is the wettest month of the year in South Fl.


June
1027. GatorWX
You post what I see, you see. You're a staple. Wish others would do the same. Opinions are terrific. Don't have an ego.

Evening, folks. We're still in a holding pattern I see.
1029. LargoFl
Quoting 1025. GatorWX:
Largo, thanks.
yes its good we talk about these storms..so many are lurking..and i wish more folks would tell how it is in Their area...sort of gives warning to those in its path later onhuh..
1030. LargoFl
Quoting 1026. Grothar:


June
April is the cruelest month.
1032. LargoFl
Quoting 1005. TexasHurricane05:


What are they saying about it?


The Texas Pile-On:







I recommend my fellow Texans grow gills while there's still time.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #39
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM PEWA (T1313)
9:00 AM JST August 23 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone Near Wake Island

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pewa (1004 hPa) located at 25.5N 168.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 27.6N 166.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Wake Island waters
48 HRS: 28.4N 165.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Wake Island waters
72 HRS: 29.0N 164.2E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Wake Island waters
1035. Grothar
Quoting 1031. Chicklit:
April is the cruelest month.


But not the wettest.
Look with all due respect to "Everybody" in this blog.

Really "Everyone" needs to sit back and move away from there computers, Laptops and or phones and take a "Deep Breath"...
I'm not sure what is going own in here today and even early evening but some of this has gotten out of hand.... I know there's not much going own right now but come on, enough already....

Can we just get past the Bashing in here tonight????
Heck I even left earlier because of the Bush/Obama Junk, and lets not for get about the AGW either....

Great Scott Batman lets just get back to the weather at hand....

ok off my box now

Taco :o)
1038. GatorWX
Pat,

Got mail
Quoting 889. Relix:
Degree does not mean knowledge. At all. You definitely have to grow up Drakoen. Had to share my two cents that was just childish, especially for someone who should be professional. You need to keep a level head for discussion as an adult, and try and take what the other person is saying into consideration even if you know they may be wrong. Come on. Anyone can have a degree.
I agree 100%. The best teacher is the school of learning it the hard way (called Life). I have a Master's Degree in Criminal Justice, but that doesn't make me any smarter than others on the subject. Basically, there's still room for learning. When one thinks he or she is smarter than others because they have a piece of paper is a foolish mistake. In life, if we refuse to listen to other views and ideas because they don't have a degree, then we refuse to learn anymore and advance in our endeavors. Basically, when we think we are smarter than others and refuse to listen and respect his or her points, then learning stops. In life, learning is key to our future. When one refuses to listen to others' opinions on a subject because they don't have a degree, well then learning ended right there. With out learning we as a society might as well throw in the great white towel.
Quoting 1029. LargoFl:
yes its good we talk about these storms..so many are lurking..and i wish more folks would tell how it is in Their area...sort of gives warning to those in its path later onhuh..


I'm not sure we're smart enough to know what we don't know. I know I'm not.

I've lived on the Gulf of Mexico for most of my life. I'm not going to say how old I am but I'm old enough to have been around to hear the hushed whispers "Hurricane Carla" anytime something started brewing in the Carribean Sea.

I have a natural emotional and financial investment on storms approaching the US. I know enough to run. And I know enough who to trust when I look for expert analysis on tropical weather. I come here after, and only after I've been to NOAA. Just like preparing for a major storm to hit my homestead, I don't screw around with ametuers. And I never try to prove I'm something I'm not. Just like I wouldn't pretend to be a heart surgeon, I'm not going to pretend to know the nature of storms. Anyone who does, is a fool.
1041. LargoFl

* AT 800 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS CONTINUED TO REPORT
FLOODING IN THE WARNED AREA. PORTIONS OF US 41 SOUTH OF BROOKSVILLE
ARE FLOODED...ALONG WITH OTHER AREA ROADS.

THIS INCLUDES PORTIONS OF INTERSTATE 75 BETWEEN EXITS 274 AND 293.
THE FLORIDA DEPARTMENT OF TRANSPORTATION REPORTED FLOODING ON
INTERSTATE 75 IN PASCO COUNTY NORTH OF THE REST AREA AT MILE MARKER
278.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF RAIN HAVE FALLEN IN A SWATH OF CENTRAL
PASCO AND HERNANDO COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER
DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY.
FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF
FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD.
WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN
AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&
Quoting 1018. LAbonbon:


This photo made me laugh. Was it in "My Big Fat Greek Wedding' that they used Windex for any and all ailments?


Yup!
Had almost no rain for two weeks, then an inch yesterday and 0.05" today here north of Orlando. Just barely keeping up with the norm here. Any thoughts on the disturbance in the Gulf, west of Florida? What factors will prevent this one from developing?
1044. LargoFl
a major intersection oh about a mile from me..is under 3 feet of water gee...no rivers or streams,its in a city.
Quoting 1039. Tarpville:
I agree 100%. The best teacher is the school of learning it the hard way (called Life). I have a Master's Degree in Criminal Justice, but that doesn't make me any smarter than others on the subject. Basically, there's still room for learning. When one thinks he or she is smarter than others because they have a piece of paper is a foolish mistake. In life, if we refuse to listen to other views and ideas because they don't have a degree, then we refuse to learn anymore and advance in our endeavors. Basically, when we think we are smarter than others and refuse to listen and respect his or her points, then learning stops. In life, learning is key to our future. When one refuses to listen to others' opinions on a subject because they don't have a degree, well then learning ended right there. With out learning we as a society might as well throw in the great white towel.

Listen 80% of the time; talk 20%...do that and you learn something.
1046. GatorWX
Meteorology at its finest. Kudos Largo. Well said.
1047. LargoFl
Redwagon..i got this off the Las Vegas NWS about it..............A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA WHICH WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MORE PROBABLE THAT A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD UP INTO THE
TRI-STATE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
DETAILING RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SPECIFIC AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THE REGION WILL SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
INFLUX OF MOISTURE SO FAR THIS MONSOON SEASON. ONCE IN PLACE...A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

JA
1...2...3...4














Knock Knock Knocking at the hurricane season door
1049. GatorWX
Knowledge can be stupidity. Knowledge can be power. How did you come to this knowledge. Did you read/study it. Or, do you think it. Almost anyone can know anything. It's those who can conceptualize thoughts that hold the power. A homeless man with no education that can do this. He is power. Thoughts are power.
Quoting 1044. LargoFl:
a major intersection oh about a mile from me..is under 3 feet of water gee...no rivers or streams,its in a city.
oops.

Not a whole lot of dry air/SAL out there in EATL right now though Doc predicts an outburst starting this weekend.

...a new outbreak of dust and dry air will exit the coast of Africa this weekend, keeping the Tropical Atlantic dry though at least Thursday, August 29. Dry air coming off the coast of Africa may abate some after that, as the long-range models call for the Azores High to shift more to the northeast...
Quoting 1044. LargoFl:
a major intersection oh about a mile from me..is under 3 feet of water gee...no rivers or streams,its in a city.


Wow, the West Coast of FL is really getting poured on this summer. Hadn't it generally been very dry for several years before this?
1039. Tarpville
+1000
just amount of dry air alone in the mdr amazes me. haven't seen it like this since late in the year 2006. it is hostile territory. and have anyone seen wind shear map. looks good for folks that don't welcome hurricane like me.
1054. LargoFl
Quoting 1051. HurrMichaelOrl:


Wow, the West Coast of FL is really getting poured on this summer. Hadn't it generally been very dry for several years before this?
yes and this season is surely making up for it lol..3 months in a row we got over 10 inches of rain ,,last time that happened they say was 1957 gee...and with the rains in the last 3 days we will be WAY over 10 inches in my county..
what is interesting to note is late in period gfs picks up some cv waves...they probably will develop won't be too strong i bet. but the steering pattern builds in the high and brings them close or about 200 east of bermuda before going north and east. very similar to 2010.
1056. LargoFl
wow alot of water is coming to the dry western states huh..............
1057. Grothar
1058. GatorWX
The sw coast if FL, at least my region, has had the wettest summer since at least '03, '04. The last three days have seen some very intense storms.
Quoting 1047. LargoFl:
Redwagon..i got this off the Las Vegas NWS about it..............A TROPICAL SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MOVE UP THE WEST COAST OF THE BAJA
PENINSULA WHICH WILL LIKELY INFLUENCE THE WEATHER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IT IS LOOKING MORE PROBABLE THAT A SURGE OF
DEEP MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL SPREAD UP INTO THE
TRI-STATE AREA LATE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WHICH WOULD LEAD TO
EXTENSIVE HEAVY RAIN PRODUCING THUNDERSTORMS. CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
DETAILING RAINFALL AMOUNTS FOR SPECIFIC AREAS BUT CONFIDENCE IS
MODERATE TO HIGH THAT THE REGION WILL SEE THE MOST SIGNIFICANT
INFLUX OF MOISTURE SO FAR THIS MONSOON SEASON. ONCE IN PLACE...A
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS WILL LEAD TO A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
EACH DAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATE SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY.

$$

JA


Our area, Centex, is nearly alone in no appreciable rain for three years. Then out of nowhere, our lake mgmt guys said prepare for flash flooding two days ago. It's the Pacific that's saved our bacon either from around Seattle, Acapulco, nothing Atlantic since.. Ike, who didn't even bring Centex rain.
1060. LargoFl
check this pic out..brooksville florida..this is us-41..totally under water wow...
Quoting 1026. Grothar:


June
Yes June is the wettest but just by a hair in Belle Glade.
Quoting 1054. LargoFl:
yes and this season is surely making up for it lol..3 months in a row we got over 10 inches of rain ,,last time that happened they say was 1957 gee...and with the rains in the last 3 days we will be WAY over 10 inches in my county..


Didn't realize it was THAT much, I guess you all were due for all the rain then (feast or famine). I will admit to being a bit jealous.
Quoting 1056. LargoFl:
wow alot of water is coming to the dry western states huh..............


I think if you check the actual precip verses what the precip the maps show .. there are large errors in what is actually accumulating ..

here in Illinois there is no rain in our forecast for the next 7 days while the map shows us receiving between 1.5 and 2.0 inches ..
Quoting 1048. AussieStorm:
1...2...3...4














Knock Knock Knocking at the hurricane season door


Sumpin' New
Quoting 1045. Chicklit:

Listen 80% of the time; talk 20%...do that and you learn something.


Amen

But on here sometimes they are called trolls. (not saying that you call them trolls Chicklit)
Quoting 1057. Grothar:


Gro we getting plenty rain with an occasional squall, that's quite a blob!



Oscat earlier showed what appeared to be closed low near 11.8N/81W with some fairly strong winds further North. Steering suggest a westward movement, but I'm wondering if it could be a NW/NNW sneaker.
1068. Grothar
Quoting 1062. unknowncomic:
Yes June is the wettest but just by a hair in Belle Glade.


I guess we just have thicker hair in Broward. :)
1069. Grothar
Quoting 1067. stormpetrol:


Gro we getting plenty rain with an occasional squall, that's quite a blob!



Oscat earlier showed what appeared to be closed low near 11.8N/81W with some fairly strong winds further North. Steering suggest a westward movement, but I'm wondering if it could be a NW/NNW sneaker.


A good part of the energy is going to the NW.
1070. Patrap
Quoting 1049. GatorWX:
Knowledge can be stupidity. Knowledge can be power. How did you come to this knowledge. Did you read/study it. Or, do you think it. Almost anyone can know anything. It's those who can conceptualize thoughts that hold the power. A homeless man with no education that can do this. He is power. Thoughts are power.


Everything, save for what is natural in Nature,Is from the Movement of Human thought.

Bears dont Fly.

Ant's dont plow Hectares on a Mt Steppe.

All Humanity is what we are, each, a part of a whole.

Connected as never b-4,raising a new conscience, as the Singularity lurks, jus over he Horizon.




Cheeto ?
1071. LargoFl
Quoting 1063. HurrMichaelOrl:


Didn't realize it was THAT much, I guess you all were due for all the rain then (feast or famine). I will admit to being a bit jealous.
yes i know what you mean..some places are really dry now..we went thru our drought time pretty well last few years..yours will end sometime too..couple of months and it will be fall and the cold fronts will come..and hopefully the rains too.
1072. LargoFl
BTW, I mentioned Carla earlier for a reason. Look back to 1961.
Quoting 1069. Grothar:


A good part of the energy is going to the NW.


I thought so too, even some convection from the Pacific appears to want to wonder into the SW Caribbean.
1075. bappit
Quoting 1033. redwagon:


The Texas Pile-On:

I recommend my fellow Texans grow gills while there's still time.

I grew some a long time ago. Don't know what happened to 'em.
1076. LargoFl
well good night folks..tomorrow is another day...oh I just perked a fresh pot of coffee for the night crew here..enjoy..oh and aussie..yes ..the Tea is made also..lol..g'night
Quoting 951. Grothar:
Nobody is talking about the yellow circle??
I guess because it's not an invest yet.
Quoting jascott1967:


Sumpin' New

there are 4 waves about to come off Africa. you can't see that. combined that with the mjo and, you tell me what might happen?
Quoting 1057. Grothar:


Twins... that's Mother Nature's way of getting the heat vaccuming done with the quicker picker uppers.
1080. Grothar
Quoting 1060. LargoFl:
check this pic out..brooksville florida..this is us-41..totally under water wow...


Wow. You know anything about Palm Harbor.
1081. Patrap
Quoting 1019. jascott1967:


Forgive me for intruding, I am intrigued by your question and the answer. Largo affirmed there has been more intensity, to put it my own terms, but in comparison to what given data?

Your question implies atmospheric change.


A inquisitive as to his Memory length, recalled from his sentient memory of inquired events, total experience here on Terra Firma, 3rd Rock(s) as its also considered a Double Planet, out from Sol.

AD Circa 20th and 21st American Centuries period.


Inclusive as to recent 2013 observed.

Junior Mint?



I think I've learned enough for the day! Everyone blog nicely, and remember, civility and manners cost nothing :)

Good night, all.
1083. Grothar
Quoting 1079. redwagon:


Twins... that's Mother Nature's way of getting the heat vaccuming done with the quicker picker uppers.


Wow, you remember Rosie?
1084. Patrap
..woooooosh'

From one of BaltimoreBrian's links:


Unraveling the Mystery of Saharan Dust Migration

Aug. 22, 2013 — Satellite pictures of Saharan dust clouds have been in the news all summer, but to Shankar Chellam, they have just raised more questions. How much impact did the Saharan dust have on Houston's air? Is it more toxic than our home-grown dust?

Chellam, a professor in the department of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Houston's Cullen College of Engineering, is searching for answers to those and other questions. Clouds of African dust often migrate across the Atlantic Ocean during summer months, affecting Houston's air quality from mid-June through mid-September. Chellam said it's especially prevalent in late August and early September.

...
Quoting 1048. AussieStorm:
1...2...3...4













br could somebody please play the lowrider song. >Knock Knock Knocking at the hurricane season door
could someone play the "Low Rider" song.
May I add it appears as though the MJO is beginning to make its presence felt
1088. Patrap
Quoting 1066. earthlydragonfly:


Amen

But on here sometimes they are called trolls. (not saying that you call them trolls Chicklit)
She quoted me. Surely, you are not calling me a troll. In my opinion, trolls post 99% of the time and don't listen any time. If you look at my join date and my comment count, it proves that i am no troll. I hope I miss understood your response to Chicklet!
1090. Patrap
Quoting 1012. LargoFl:
yes indeed..more electrical energy as in Lightning..yesterday we had from that storm in the gulf now..almost 500 strikes in 25 minutes..continous lightning..todays storm..127 strikes in a half hour..


Thanx largo.

1091. flsky
Quoting 1089. Tarpville:
She quoted me. Surely, you are not calling me a troll. In my opinion, trolls post 99% of the time and don't listen any time. If you look at my join date and my comment count, it proves that i am no troll. I hope I miss understood your response to Chicklet!

Hey, you've got me beat. I thought I was the one on longest with the least number of posts.
Quoting 1083. Grothar:


Wow, you remember Rosie?


I seem to remember her cousin from Nuevo Laredo:

Spread out now Rosie, doctor come cut loose her mama's reins

You know playin' blind man's bluff is a little baby's game

You pick up Little Dynamite, I'll pick up Little Gun
And together we're gonna go out tonight and make that highway run

You don't have to call me lieutenant, Rosie, and I don't want to be your son

...And the record company, Rosie, just gave me a big ADVANCE!

Quoting 808. VR46L:


Err, Its the 18z at 384hrs out :)LOL


I know, but everything that brings hope is nice xD
1094. GetReal
1095. Patrap
Anyone think we could get at least a TD brewing in the north east. Gom? Looks like there is a spin.
1097. GetReal



There is a hint of something trying to spin up south of Pensacola. New popcorn convection springing up this evening.
Quoting 1096. samhou67:
Anyone think we could get at least a TD brewing in the north east. Gom? Looks like there is a spin.


Voticities are elongated and not quite stacked at all levels (850, 700, 500mb's) and little to no convergence but with increasing divergence.
Therefore, if it does get its act together, it would take a while.
1099. Grothar
1100. Patrap
1101. Patrap
Looks like a fresh batch of SAL pushing off the coast. Let's see what impacts it has to Pouch 24L in the coming days.

Quoting 1091. flsky:

Hey, you've got me beat. I thought I was the one on longest with the least number of posts.


I'm right there too I think. Been lurking since '05. Officially joined during Ike in '08.
1104. Patrap
Quoting 1089. Tarpville:
She quoted me. Surely, you are not calling me a troll. In my opinion, trolls post 99% of the time and don't listen any time. If you look at my join date and my comment count, it proves that i am no troll. I hope I miss understood your response to Chicklet!


I'm not sure why they want to call someone a "Troll"??? heck I guess I'm called one too.....
mmmmm

Taco :o)
1106. Patrap
New Orleans
NEXRAD Radar

Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.5° Elevation

Range 124 NMI

Quoting 1096. samhou67:
Anyone think we could get at least a TD brewing in the north east. Gom? Looks like there is a spin.

The spin you see is solely in the mid-levels of the atmosphere. Development is not anticipated before it moves into Louisiana tomorrow afternoon.
Last night I dreamed of big pythons everywhere (hey no comments about Freud). Is there a possibility that the high levels of water in the Glades could bring more of these constrictors North to S. Cntrl Fl? Any snake experts out there?
1109. Patrap
I don't like spider's and snakes..
Quoting 1109. Patrap:
I don't like spider's and snakes..

I admire both but only from a careful distance. It was a scary dream! Those pythons in the Glades get to be nearly 20 ft long!
1111. MTWX
Quoting 1103. c150flyer:


I'm right there too I think. Been lurking since '05. Officially joined during Ike in '08.


Evening night shift!! Yeah, I'm more of an observer too. Been around here since early '05. On my second profile, cause I forgot the password to my first due to rarity of actually logging in. LOL!!
By the way.... HUGE BUST

Link



If that blob where east of the Central Lesser Antilles..................................... .
1113. MTWX
Quoting 1109. Patrap:
I don't like spider's and snakes..


Wimp!! LOL!!

I don't mind them, if I know they are there. If they sneak up on me, I hope it's because they have a death wish!! Cause they are about to meet their maker!!

000
WTPZ34 KNHC 230231
TCPEP4

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM ON
FRIDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...17.9N 112.7W
ABOUT 390 MI...630 KM SSW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES

000
WTPZ44 KNHC 230232
TCDEP4

TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
800 PM PDT THU AUG 22 2013

ALTHOUGH THE DEEP CONVECTION IS INCREASING NEAR THE CENTER...THE
OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN STRUCTURE HAS NOT CHANGED SIGNIFICANTLY
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE
CIRCULATION...AND THE SHOWER ACTIVITY EXTENDS AS FAR EAST AS THE
SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO WHERE HEAVY RAINS ARE PROBABLY OCCURRING.
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB SUPPORT AN
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS. THE DEPRESSION WILL LIKELY BECOME A
TROPICAL STORM DURING THE NEXT 6 HOURS OR SO...AND IT HAS THE
OPPORTUNITY TO STRENGTHEN SLIGHTLY DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS
BEFORE THE CIRCULATION REACHES THE COOLER WATERS WEST OF THE BAJA
CALIFORNIA PENINSULA. IN FACT...NONE OF THE MODELS BRING THE
CYCLONE ABOVE 40 TO 45 KNOTS DURING THAT PERIOD.

THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN MEANDERING DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS BUT THE
LONG TERM MOTION APPEARS TO BE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST OR 330
DEGREES AT 5 KNOTS. THE CYCLONE IS ALREADY LOCATED ON THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LARGE MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES...AND IS HEADING TOWARD A BREAK IN THE RIDGE
CAUSED BY AN APPROACHING TROUGH. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD KEEP
THE CYCLONE ON A GENERAL NORTH-NORTHWEST TRACK WITH NO SIGNIFICANT
CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED THROUGH THE NEXT 4 DAYS...BRINGING THE
CENTER OF THE CYCLONE WELL TO THE WEST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA. THE NHC FORECAST IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS...AND HAS GIVEN A LITTLE LESS WEIGHT TO THE GFS WHICH
SHOWS A TRACK CLOSER TO THE PENISULA.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE COULD BEGIN SURGING
NORTHWARD TOWARD THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO
AND THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...
INCREASING THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 17.9N 112.7W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 18.7N 112.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 20.0N 113.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 21.5N 114.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 23.0N 114.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z 26.0N 115.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0000Z 28.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0000Z 28.0N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting 1099. Grothar:


Those are not low-riders and are probably coming to you. All four. BAM POW BANG SMACK.

Everybody check their flood insurance policies. And auto. Lower your deductibles from 1000 to 100 then raise 'em back in December.
Quoting 1103. c150flyer:


I'm right there too I think. Been lurking since '05. Officially joined during Ike in '08.


I've got to be in the Top 10.
1118. Patrap
Quoting 1113. MTWX:


Wimp!! LOL!!

I don't mind them, if I know they are there. If they sneak up on me, I hope it's because they have a death wish!! Cause they are about to meet their maker!!


I was referencing the 70's tune,.....that was after the Jurassic.,the 70's dat is.

Plus snakes and spider's are condiments here in Se. Louisiana.


Quoting 1113. MTWX:


Wimp!! LOL!!

I don't mind them, if I know they are there. If they sneak up on me, I hope it's because they have a death wish!! Cause they are about to meet their maker!!


I think he was singing a song by Jim Stanford :o)

Taco :o)
Quoting 1108. congaline:
Last night I dreamed of big pythons everywhere (hey no comments about Freud). Is there a possibility that the high levels of water in the Glades could bring more of these constrictors North to S. Cntrl Fl? Any snake experts out there?

Cold air, about 30-32 degrees will kill these pythons. That is the restricting force as to how far north they can live. I have seen one as far north as Vero Bch. and they don't need this excess rain to travel. Any canal will do for migration. Best guess would be about Melborne.
Quoting 1109. Patrap:
I don't like spider's and snakes..


..and that ain't what it takes to
1122. Patrap
1123. MTWX
Quoting 1118. Patrap:


I was referencing the 70's tune,.....that was after the Jurassic.


Oh... Before my time Pat, way over my head... Maybe I need another Fresca.. LOL!
1124. beell
18Z seems a little quick in moving the portion of the surface trough extending out into the gulf towards the west. Does show some low to mid level support.


08/22 18Z GFS 850 mb-valid 18Z Friday


08/22 18Z GFS 10 meter winds-valid 18Z Friday
1125. Patrap


1126. Grothar
Areas of the continental United States with climate matching that of the pythons' native range in Asia. USGS image.



1127. beell
A little bit of divergence aloft over central/northern Louisiana. Would help if it was a bit farther south. Fairly benign upper level winds over the gulf.


08/22 18Z GFS 200 mb winds

tgif almost. later.
Quoting 1126. Grothar:
Areas of the continental United States with climate matching that of the pythons' native range in Asia. USGS image.





Learn something new everyday here. I am very surprised at the range in light of the number of dead pythons found every winter curled up trying to stay warm
1129. MTWX
Quoting 1126. Grothar:
Areas of the continental United States with climate matching that of the pythons' native range in Asia. USGS image.





A few have been spotted around here lately in NE Mississippi. People catching Pacu in the rivers is becoming more frequent too! Gator populations are also up.
Quoting 1128. seer2012:


Learn something new everyday here. I am very surprised at the range in light of the number of dead pythons found every winter curled up trying to stay warm



Need a good hard freeze to take them all out.
1131. SLU
Quoting 1112. CaribBoy:
By the way.... HUGE BUST

Link



If that blob where east of the Central Lesser Antilles..................................... .


That was ex-Erin btw.
Quoting 1122. Patrap:


What an amazing wormhole/portal has been opened up between the EPAC and GOM/CARIB. I've never seen this setup in my life. It's like a 10-lane highway going up overnight.

Quoting 1129. MTWX:


A few have been spotted around here lately in NE Mississippi. People catching Pacu in the rivers is becoming more frequent too! Gator populations are also up.



"Choot em!!"
Quoting 1131. SLU:


That was ex-Erin btw.


Yep, maybe another "appearance" of the Ghost at DMAX right on us xD
1136. MTWX
Quoting 1133. HimacaneBrees:



"Choot em!!"


They have actually opened our area for hunting gator for the first time ever this year... Shoulda got me a tag!!
Quoting 1083. Grothar:


Wow, you remember Rosie?





oops! That was the wrong Rosie.

You meant this Rosie

Quoting 1118. Patrap:


I was referencing the 70's tune,.....that was after the Jurassic.,the 70's dat is.

Plus snakes and spider's are condiments here in Se. Louisiana.




The Jurassic? That was shortly after Gro was finally cave trained out of loin cloth right? :)
Hopefully we will have something decent to track soon. I am not giving up on an active season as the SAL is ever-present even during active seasons, but seems to be quiet a little later than usual. I am guessing before the end of next week we will see something interesting though.
1139. MrMixon


Water from the storage tanks has seeped into the groundwater and then into the sea. Efforts to use a chemical barrier to prevent sea contamination have not worked.

Dr Ken Buesseler is a senior scientist at Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution who has examined the waters around Fukushima.

"It is not over yet by a long shot, Chernobyl was in many ways a one week fire-explosive event, nothing with the potential of this right on the ocean."

"Our biggest concern right now is if some of the other isotopes such as strontium 90 which tend to be more mobile, get through these sediments in the ground water," said Dr Buesseler.

"They are entering the oceans at levels that then will accumulate in seafood and will cause new health concerns."

"There is absolutely no guarantee that there isn't a crack in the walls of the spent fuel pools. If salt water gets in, the steel bars would be corroded. It would basically explode the walls, and you cannot see that; you can't get close enough to the pools," he said.

Source: BBC
(Thanks, BaltimoreBrian, for the link)
1140. Grothar
Quoting 1137. Some1Has2BtheRookie:





oops! That was the wrong Rosie.

You meant this Rosie



That's the one!!
Quoting 1140. Grothar:


That's the one!!


We still have it, Grothar! ... At least a memory of it.
1142. MrMixon
Quoting 1126. Grothar:
Areas of the continental United States with climate matching that of the pythons' native range in Asia. USGS image.





Living in the "no" zone and glad of it!
1144. Grothar
Quoting 1141. Some1Has2BtheRookie:


We still have it, Grothar! ... At least a memory of it.


Knowing you, I thought it would be "Rosie the Riveter"
Good evening.

Quoting 1056. LargoFl:
wow alot of water is coming to the dry western states huh..............


Alledgedly
Good evening class!
1149. Grothar
Quoting 1148. HimacaneBrees:


If that were in Italy, you would be in trouble :)
LOL
Quoting 1144. Grothar:


Knowing you, I thought it would be "Rosie the Riveter"





This Rosie was more of the get er done type. And that she did!
Rookie did you Fall asleep on the keyboard?


Never mind it looks like it got corrected lol.
1153. flsky
Quoting 1151. Some1Has2BtheRookie:





This Rosie was more of the get er done type. And that she did!

My stepmother actually worked as a riveter on aircraft in WWII!
Quoting 1136. MTWX:


They have actually opened our area for hunting gator for the first time ever this year... Shoulda got me a tag!!


Could've replaced the "crow" threats with gator...well, that might encourage more of us to make more bad forecasts, though. Hmm...
Quoting 1152. HimacaneBrees:
Rookie did you Fall asleep on the keyboard?


I kinda diiiiiiid. The first image did not post right and I had to go back and modify it. When I finally did get it right, you already had Rosie looking at us. .... I should have have just said, "See post #1148". :)
A lot of rain out west and in Maine

1157. Cat5hit
Quoting 1154. Astrometeor:


Could've replaced the "crow" threats with gator...well, that might encourage more of us to make more bad forecasts, though. Hmm...


Yep. I love gator...

Especially during football season.
Looks like Models are getting a little frisky next week...and not just 1 model either.
1159. Grothar
Quoting 1150. HimacaneBrees:
LOL


Got that one, did ya! :)
1160. Grothar
Quoting 1147. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Good evening class!


Why do always come on when I am leaving? The bags under my eyes are so bad, someone asked if they came with wheels.

Have fun Night shift.
Quoting 1160. Grothar:


Why do always come on when I am leaving? The bags under my eyes are so bad, someone asked if they came with wheels.

Have fun Night shift.


I just woke up from my old man nap Gro!..... Can you not relate? :)
1162. Grothar
Quoting 1161. HurricaneHunterJoe:


I just woke up from my old man nap Gro!..... Can you not relate? :)


Yes, I do. I fall asleep with Matlock on and wake up to Frasier.
Remember Im 3 hours behind most of you all
1164. MTWX
Quoting 1162. Grothar:


Yes, I do. I fall asleep with Matlock on and wake up to Frasier.


Is it bad that your like a million years older than me, but yet I enjoy both those shows too... LOL!!

I actually have all 11 seasons of Frasier on DVD... (Probably shouldn't admit that..)
I wonder will it evolve into something? NHC does not think so.

1166. Grothar
Quoting 1164. MTWX:


Is it bad that your like a million years older than me, but yet I enjoy both those shows too... LOL!!

I actually have all 11 seasons of Frasier on DVD... (Probably shouldn't admit that..)


No,. you shouldn't. :)
Im soo old they all want me for Clinical Trials for all the conditions I have....I can put in a good word for ya Gro
1168. MTWX
Quoting 1165. HurricaneHunterJoe:
I wonder will it evolve into something? NHC does not think so.



Nah. MS and AL coasts are going to get a good bit of rain though...
I want " The Fugitive " series 1963-1967 was always my favorite...does that kinda say how old I am?
Quoting 1165. HurricaneHunterJoe:
I wonder will it evolve into something? NHC does not think so.



If you look closely, you will see a 'they', not an 'it'.

See the two shrimp or commas in your still shot?
Quoting 1156. tornadodude:
A lot of rain out west and in Maine



Not enough rain and too much lightning in my neck-of-the-woods.
Quoting 1170. redwagon:


If you look closely, you will see a 'they', not an 'it'.

See the two shrimp or commas in your still shot?



Twinsie's?....LOL
1173. MTWX
Quoting 1171. PrivateIdaho:


Not enough rain and too much lightning in my neck-of-the-woods.


How are the fires going in your neck of the woods??

Edit: Just looked up your InciWeb...

You guys make our fires in MT look like camp fires!!

Prayers be with you guys!!
1174. Gearsts
171hr until something starts to happen.
Quoting 1173. MTWX:


How are the fires going in your neck of the woods??


Just some smoke by me. Friends near Ketchum had to evacuate but were allowed back in yesterday.
Quoting 1172. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Twinsie's?....LOL


Yeah, 'twinsies'. Which is why it will never develop. Not enough room in the GOM for two competing centers of circ to become one and wrap up before landfall.
Quoting 1109. Patrap:
I don't like spider's and snakes..
but that ain't what it takes to love me...you fool, you fool!
1179. MTWX
Quoting 1176. PrivateIdaho:


Just some smoke by me. Friends near Ketchum had to evacuate but were allowed back in yesterday.


Glad you are doing OK. Your friends lose anything?
1180. Gearsts
Quoting 1175. opal92nwf:


Well, triplets. Wow. Never seen triplets. Well, I have, but not in so small a system.
Quoting 1179. MTWX:


Glad you are doing OK. Your friends lose anything?


Nope, they live on the other side of the highway from the fire and the fire crews kept it from jumping.
1183. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
I wonder will it evolve into something? NHC does not think so.


Looking at the Gulf satellite, the blob is just that, a blog. It's an ULL that reached maximum size during the heating of the day and is now shrinking, just the opposite of a developing surface low. Given the easterlies in the Gulf, it would be nice if it held together until it got to Texas but it doesn't look good for that. It will be long gone form the AL FL/Panhandle area by Sunday and the forecast for Monday and Tuesday is for sunny with no rain, not even the usual climatology 20% of thunderstorms. Supposedly, our high Monday will be 82. I don't believe it but, if it comes to pass, I'll finally have the chance to get on the roof and put a ham radio antenna I've been trying to get done for a month.
1184. Gearsts
Nothing yet
1185. JLPR2
At 192hrs the GFS has two good candidates for development, one low in the CATL and another emerging from Africa. Sadly 192hrs is a tough sell.

1186. Gearsts
lol
1187. JLPR2
Quoting 1186. Gearsts:
lol


LOL is right, the last one to emerge actually pulls the low all the way out in the CATL and absorbs it. xD

Ah, GFS, you're nuts!
1188. MTWX
Quoting 1184. Gearsts:
Nothing yet


Is that a 980 over the great lakes??!!?
1189. sar2401
Quoting Grothar:


Why do always come on when I am leaving? The bags under my eyes are so bad, someone asked if they came with wheels.

Have fun Night shift.

GN, Gro. My bags at least shrink at night, so I get up quick in the morning and run and look in the mirror. I only have about 30 seconds before they're back again. :-)
1190. Gearsts
Quoting 1187. JLPR2:


LOL is right, the last one to emerge actually pulls the low all the way out in the CATL and absorbs it. xD

Ah, GFS, you're nuts!
I give up on the gfs, i'll just wait until we have something real to track. Is really hard to favor and active season just by looking at the gfs, feels depressing.
Quoting 1185. JLPR2:
At 192hrs the GFS has two good candidates for development, one low in the CATL and another emerging from Africa. Sadly 192hrs is a tough sell.



Look closer at what you posted. A massive system on the W coast of Mexico, but no moisture pluming into MX or Texas. GFS has been hacked.
1192. sar2401
Quoting JLPR2:


LOL is right, the last one to emerge actually pulls the low all the way out in the CATL and absorbs it. xD

Ah, GFS, you're nuts!

Why do you guys keep looking at the GFS at 192 hours? All it's done is disappoint you all season, and you'll never be able to tel a real storm, when one finally develops, from all the ghosts of Seasons Past. Really, I'm glad you guys have the interest to post them, but I'd be nearly psychotic if I looked at them every run. Just let me know when an actual depression forms. It will probably die also, but at least we can call it something but "The Blob". :-)
1193. JLPR2
I find this pretty interesting, I wonder if it'll hold.

1194. MTWX
Quoting 1182. PrivateIdaho:


Nope, they live on the other side of the highway from the fire and the fire crews kept it from jumping.


That's there on the Beaver Creek fire. Looks like they have been doing a good job of keeping from crossing the highway. That's a monster too, at 111,163 acres!!

Link
1195. JLPR2
Quoting 1192. sar2401:

Why do you guys keep looking at the GFS at 192 hours? All it's done is disappoint you all season, and you'll never be able to tel a real storm, when one finally develops, from all the ghosts of Seasons Past. Really, I'm glad you guys have the interest to post them, but I'd be nearly psychotic if I looked at them every run. Just let me know when an actual depression forms. It will probably die also, but at least we can call it something but "The Blob". :-)


There's really not much to talk about so I take a look at it for entertainment only, who can take a model seriously when it keeps changing everything in every run?
1196. sar2401
Quoting MTWX:


Is that a 980 over the great lakes??!!?

Yeah, it's been there, on and off, for about a week. It's apparently going to develop out of a strong ridge that should be covering most of the central part of the country next week. That's why it keep showing 980 mb lows next to the 1012 mb isobar. You'd think they'd have some kind of error checking built in to alert an actual human when the GFS wants to do something impossible. I think the same people responsible for the NASDAQ today also do quality control for the GFS. :-)
1197. JLPR2
PG24L is starting to do the twist just offshore Africa. Not much going on with the 10% in the Gulf.

1198. sar2401
Quoting JLPR2:


There's really not much to talk about so I take a look at it for entertainment only, who can take a model seriously when it keeps changing everything in every run?

Yeah, I suppose so, but it's times like this that want me to get my Charlotte Bronte books out of storage so I can at least be totally bored while getting some culture. :-)
coffee is good
and
smoke em' if ya got em'
Last frame before the model loses resolution, but you can see how far south the A-B High is located which would tend to further suppress activity or at most limit anything from getting too terribly strong. This run is rather uneventful, but I still think pouch 94L and 95L are decent candidates for development and 94L would tend to track further west more in line with the 18z run and 12z run of the other dynamical models while 95L would have a better chance of recurving OTS as the high retreats or splits off towards the northeast.

95L?


nevermind i see you said "pouch"
We're down to watching pouches now?
Quoting 1193. JLPR2:
I find this pretty interesting, I wonder if it'll hold.


so nothing to blame this year's lame hurricane season on.
1204. MTWX
Well I'm out of here for the evening. Night all!
Quoting 1203. UNThurricane2019:

so nothing to blame this year's lame hurricane season on.


You can always blame it on the weather
Quoting 1202. HimacaneBrees:
95L?


nevermind i see you said "pouch"
We're down to watching pouches now?
LOL sorry about that, got you worked up there for a second, aye? :P
Quoting 1206. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL sorry about that, got you worked up there for a second, aye? :P


Yep I was excited until my ADD kicked out and my comprehension kicked in.
Quoting 1207. Skyepony:



Great colors. I love Purple and Gold!!!!!
1210. LemieT
Watching countless computer models and wishing for a storm is becoming increasingly frustrating. I seem to remember a season about 7 years ago. Everyone hyped it up, and then poof, nothing. Time-frames pushing back, fresh coatings of SAL for the Atlantic, it's all a little discouraging. I'm not an "anything-caster" by any stretch of the imagination, just this season seems to have the odds stacked against it.
Quoting 1209. HimacaneBrees:



Great colors. I love Purple and Gold!!!!!


I thought you might like that..


Pewa has some odd lines in it..click pic to see it gettrashed by an ULL.

Aqua caught Pewa about 2 hours ago..

1213. VBgirl
I am quite happy with this "lame" hurricane season. I have had my home damaged, spent weeks without power, lost all my food, etc. And I know I have been lucky compared to the losses others have had, my stuff has only been temporarily life changing..not like some who have lost loved ones, their homes and belongings, everything. I am over it.
fnmoc won't open for me. Looks like 94E is now 09E.
Quoting 1210. LemieT:
Watching countless computer models and wishing for a storm is becoming increasingly frustrating. I seem to remember a season about 7 years ago. Everyone hyped it up, and then poof, nothing. Time-frames pushing back, fresh coatings of SAL for the Atlantic, it's all a little discouraging. I'm not an "anything-caster" by any stretch of the imagination, just this season seems to have the odds stacked against it.

I seem to remember a season exactly 3 years ago that had a similar outcome... nothing until late August, and then when the parade came they all went fishing or veered south, with the only TS being a microscopic raincloud that gave Florida a partly cloudy day that time.
1216. JLPR2
PG24L is emerging at a pretty low latitude, maybe it will provide something interesting to watch...

Or maybe not. xD



GEM 150 hrs.



1218. JLPR2
Quoting 1217. GTstormChaserCaleb:
GEM 150 hrs.





NAVGEM 150hrs



Tough we do have to keep in mind this is a 12z run, the CMC is at its 00z run. Still... pretty good agreement.
Once the EPAC turns quiet that will be the cue for the Atlantic Hurricane Season to get going.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
Quoting 1206. GTstormChaserCaleb:
LOL sorry about that, got you worked up there for a second, aye? :P


The pouches are P23L and P24L not numbers in the ninetys.
EPAC

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
Quoting 1218. JLPR2:


NAVGEM 150hrs



Tough we do have to keep in mind this is a 12z run, the CMC is at its 00z run. Still... pretty good agreement.
Yeah what ever happened to the 18z run on Levi's site and the 00z run hasn't ran as yet which is odd as it should be out already?
Quoting 1217. GTstormChaserCaleb:
GEM 150 hrs.





Too far north :( And the 00Z GFS is... how to say it... terribly depressing. 18Z was great.

Good night everyone.
1225. JLPR2
Quoting 1223. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You what ever happened to the 18z run on Levi's site and the 00z run hasn't ran as yet which is odd as it should be out already?


This one isn't updated either, strange, the problem seems to be at the source not in Levi's site.

Quoting 1221. VAbeachhurricanes:


The pouches are P23L and P24L not numbers in the ninetys.
Ohhh lol, man I wish I caught that mistake earlier. I really need to get some rest my hand eye coordination is off. I need to appologize to HimacaneBrees then sorry for the confusion.
Quoting 1224. CaribBoy:


Too far north :( And the 00Z GFS is... how to say it... terribly depressing. 18Z was great.

Good night everyone.
Good night. The GFS is like that old girlfriend you had the one who leads you on, only to give your hopes up.
Quoting 1207. Skyepony:


This is beautiful and I bookmarked it, thank you very much, Ma'am.
Latest ASCAT of the heaviest convection associated with the trough of low pressure off Florida's West Coast shows what appears to be a surface low forming. Divergence is high and no convergence is yet happening, but if this disturbance re-fires strongly tomorrow it could get interesting. Doubtful upper level winds will allow this to spin up and any vorticity is to the West, but wouldn't be surprised to see the percentage go up to 20 or 30% tomorrow if this AOI can persist.
Looks to me as if something may be about to form in the Western Caribbean. A lot of convection going on there right now.
Good morning / evening all...

Just a thought, Tribucanes... in spanish matara' with an accent on the last a means "It [or he or she] will kill". Seems the handle matches the blogger's attitude...

EDITs credited to JLPR...
ASCAT
Quoting 1232. Tribucanes:


GT is liked by just about everyone here, why go there other than to be mean? Speaks volumes and not about GT. Hope they can archive the mean and condescending comments that you make and do something about it. You've never said anything positive to anyone, never been constructive, and only blog to incite. Even those of us who disagree strongly are friendly and show respect for differing opinions.


Don't quote, just minus, minus, minus.
1237. JLPR2
Quoting 1234. BahaHurican:
Good morning / evening all...

Just a thought, Tribucanes... in spanish matara' with an accent on the last a means "I will kill". Seems the handle matches the blogger's attitude...


Actually matará, translates to Will kill, I will kill is mataré. :)

The more you know... LOL! XD

---------------

Looks like a good weekend for me, goodnight everyone!
Still a tropical depression.

EP, 09, 2013082306, , BEST, 0, 183N, 1128W, 30, 1002, TD, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1007, 220, 70, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, NINE, M,
Quoting 1237. JLPR2:


Actually matará, translates to Will kill, I will kill is mataré. :)

The more you know... LOL! XD

---------------

Looks like a good weekend for me, goodnight everyone!
Thanks for the reminder... that's what I get for trying to conjugate spanish future tense at 2:30 in the morning... lol... now I am stuck thinking about Wilfredo Vargas... "te voy a matarrrrr"... lol

I think I'll head to bed myself..
The fsu model page has had this on it for days & there was some problems before that.

PLEASE NOTE: There have been substantial latency and bandwidth issues at NCEP that are causing
some products here to be greatly delayed. I am working on creating backup retrieval scripts for
other grid sources and appreciate your patience during this process. You do not need to email me
concerning this problem as I am *well* aware of it, in part due to the volume of email. Thank you.
6 more nights on the night shift, then it's home sweet home for a couple of weeks. I really don't like working nights. I feel like the Maytag man.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #41
Gale Warning
TROPICAL STORM PEWA (T1313)
15:00 PM JST August 23 2013
===================================

SUBJECT: Category One Typhoon Named Cyclone Near Wake Island

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Storm Pewa (1004 hPa) located at 26.4N 168.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 8 knots.

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
50 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 27.8N 166.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Wake Island waters
48 HRS: 28.5N 165.4E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Wake Island waters
72 HRS: 29.1N 164.1E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Wake Island waters
1243. JRRP
I like what Gro pointed out earlier. This would be very interesting to see
Calm before the storm.

Evening all or morning for some, one quick snipe for me as most of you know I hardly talk on here unless we have a substantial or long track system in the mix.

So that snipe, basically we are in an unusual but totally not unheard of lull here. Most likely as some folks have already pointed out, this season is likely to be a "late bloomer" of a Hurricane season.


This is a good bad thing.

Its good because its not likely at this point that we will meet the season predictions.

Its bad because what does form will occur when people are already going to be assuming they were in the clear, and because the chances of land-falling systems will be higher.

The main factor that was suppressing the season was most likely the ultra high pressure system centered over Texas and New Mexico earlier in the summer. This created a dive in the jetstream which subsequently extended itself into the GOM and upper atlantic which increases shear across the entire tropically atlantic. Additionally this coupled with the stronger than normal Bermuda High meant higher than average westerly's in the MDR and Carib which helped tear up what systems did form. The other primary factor has been abnormally high SAL and resulting dry air.

Both of these factors are diminishing, in the case of the Texas High the system began diminishing as we move toward a pre winter frontal pattern and is now no longer producing shear or jet stream alterations, as a result shear has begun falling on average for the last two weeks and continues to do so. Fewer TUTT's have also formed and existing ones have been diminishing.

Additionally, after hovering around a possible dip into El Nino, SST anomalies in the PAC indicate that we are now either in or heading into a La Nina, possibly quite a strong one if the current trend persists. And after a lull and stop due to the SAL, the ITCZ is kicking back up again and activity is increasing there as well.

So all in all, do I think we will reach season predictions? Absolutely not. Do I think we will still have almost that amount of storms, and that it may be a fast and furious situation with all of them coming in a two week period? Yes this seems likely given the current trends in the atmosphere.

So on that I note I urge CAUTION to everyone. The season could indeed fizzle, and that would be a blessing to everyone who gets hit if it doesn't, but the likely outcome is that sometime in the next 6 weeks we will be facing not one but probably multiple serious situations with the GOM or East Coast, so I would simply say keep your eyes open because when things kick off it should go pretty fast and very hard.

What happened to the Tropical Weather Page? The new format totally SUCKS!!!
It now requires multiple clicks to get to info that was presented in whole on the page before, and the Tropical Update and Discussion require going to the NHC and even more clicks.

PLEASE GO BACK TO THE ORIGINAL PAGE FORMAT!
Quoting 1246. DataNerd:
Calm before the storm.

Evening all or morning for some, one quick snipe for me as most of you know I hardly talk on here unless we have a substantial or long track system in the mix.

So that snipe, basically we are in an unusual but totally not unheard of lull here. Most likely as some folks have already pointed out, this season is likely to be a "late bloomer" of a Hurricane season.


This is a good bad thing.

Its good because its not likely at this point that we will meet the season predictions.

Its bad because what does form will occur when people are already going to be assuming they were in the clear, and because the chances of land-falling systems will be higher.

The main factor that was suppressing the season was most likely the ultra high pressure system centered over Texas and New Mexico earlier in the summer. This created a dive in the jetstream which subsequently extended itself into the GOM and upper atlantic which increases shear across the entire tropically atlantic. Additionally this coupled with the stronger than normal Bermuda High meant higher than average westerly's in the MDR and Carib which helped tear up what systems did form. The other primary factor has been abnormally high SAL and resulting dry air.

Both of these factors are diminishing, in the case of the Texas High the system began diminishing as we move toward a pre winter frontal pattern and is now no longer producing shear or jet stream alterations, as a result shear has begun falling on average for the last two weeks and continues to do so. Fewer TUTT's have also formed and existing ones have been diminishing.

Additionally, after hovering around a possible dip into El Nino, SST anomalies in the PAC indicate that we are now either in or heading into a La Nina, possibly quite a strong one if the current trend persists. And after a lull and stop due to the SAL, the ITCZ is kicking back up again and activity is increasing there as well.

So all in all, do I think we will reach season predictions? Absolutely not. Do I think we will still have almost that amount of storms, and that it may be a fast and furious situation with all of them coming in a two week period? Yes this seems likely given the current trends in the atmosphere.

So on that I note I urge CAUTION to everyone. The season could indeed fizzle, and that would be a blessing to everyone who gets hit if it doesn't, but the likely outcome is that sometime in the next 6 weeks we will be facing not one but probably multiple serious situations with the GOM or East Coast, so I would simply say keep your eyes open because when things kick off it should go pretty fast and very hard.


amen good stuff! let them people know bust season huh? lmao wait till september i tell em!
1250. barbamz
.
BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E ADVISORY NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

...DEPRESSION MOVING NORTHWESTWARD...
...COULD BECOME A TROPICAL STORM LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 200 AM PDT...0900 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...18.7N 112.9W
ABOUT 350 MI...560 KM SW OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 325 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1002 MB...29.59 INCHES
Quoting 1241. HimacaneBrees:
6 more nights on the night shift, then it's home sweet home for a couple of weeks. I really don't like working nights. I feel like the Maytag man.


Being old enough to remember the Maytag man, I send you good hopes that the next six nights pass swiftly for you! You'll be home just in time to watch the wave slide off of Africa.
1255. barbamz
Short hello this morning. Hope you're all awakening in good mood.

Dave Petley is back from his vacations, continuing his landslide blog:

A dramatic earthflow video from Puerto Rico
23 August 2013
Liveleak has this remarkable footage of an earthflow, apparently triggered by heavy rainfall, in Puerto Rico
1256. barbamz
Wildfire near Yosemite park sends tourists fleeing
BBC, 23 August 2013 Last updated at 07:15 GMT

A huge wildfire near Yosemite National Park in California has forced scores of tourists to flee during peak season and is threatening thousands of homes.

The week-old Rim Fire more than tripled in size on Thursday and now spans at least 84 square miles (217 sq km).

More than 1,300 firefighters have been tackling the blaze in difficult terrain but have contained only 1% of it.

California's governor has declared a state of emergency because of the fire, one of 50 burning in the western US.

The blaze has not reached Yosemite itself, which remains open, officials say.

But it has shut a stretch of motorway that is one of three entrances to the west side of the park, which receives up to 15,000 visitors a day in the summer. ...
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP092013
200 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

THERE CONTINUES TO BE LITTLE CHANGE IN THE OVERALL CLOUD PATTERN
ASSOCIATED WITH THE DEPRESSION. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW TWO
SEPARATE AREAS OF DEEP CONVECTION...ONE OF WHICH IS DIRECTLY
ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE OTHER CONVECTIVE AREA IS
LOCATED ABOUT 100 N MI TO THE EAST OF THE ESTIMATED CENTER OF THE
DEPRESSION. THE LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS WERE UNCHANGED
FROM EARLIER...AND THE INITIAL WIND SPEED IS HELD AT 30 KT. ONLY A
LITTLE STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...
DESPITE FAVORABLE ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS...DUE TO THE
LARGE SIZE OF THE SYSTEM AND AFOREMENTIONED CLOUD PATTERN. WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN ABOUT 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE WILL BE
MOVING OVER COLDER WATER AND INTO AN ENVIRONMENT OF SOUTHERLY SHEAR
AND STABLE AIR. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN
ABOUT 48 HOURS WHEN IT IS FORECAST TO BE OVER SSTS OF AROUND 23C.

THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT ABOUT 6 KT TOWARD A
WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THIS WEAKNESS IS EXPECTED TO
PERSIST AND BECOME REINFORCED BY A TROUGH MOVING TOWARD CALIFORNIA
THIS WEEKEND. THIS STEERING PATTERN SHOULD CAUSE THE CYCLONE TO MOVE
STEADILY NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. THE NHC TRACK
FORECAST IS AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ONE AND LIES A LITTLE TO THE
WEST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
AND UKMET MODELS.

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE CYCLONE COULD SURGE NORTHWARD TOWARD
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA...NORTHWESTERN MEXICO AND THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...INCREASING THE
POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY RAINS AND FLASH FLOODING.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 18.7N 112.9W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 19.7N 113.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 21.2N 113.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 22.8N 114.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 24.5N 115.3W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0600Z 27.0N 116.1W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 27/0600Z 28.0N 116.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 28/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
nice spin with this tropical wave and nice tropical wave on land to
An interesting parallel for the Gulf system, in my opinion, is Tropical Storm Edouard in 2008. Synoptic pattern favors a similar path, although the upper-level wind pattern is not quite the same; for one thing, the flow was more northerly with Edouard to start with, before turning easterly again, but there are some similarities with the formative location and future track.

heres the response to data nerd. read what he said and look at this chart good i promise ya september gonna show its face! if not give me 4 plates of crow!
Quoting 1259. KoritheMan:
An interesting parallel for the Gulf system, in my opinion, is Tropical Storm Edouard in 2008. Synoptic pattern favors a similar path, although the upper-level wind pattern is not quite the same; for one thing, the flow was more northerly with Edouard to start with, before turning easterly again, but there are some similarities with the formative location and future track.


Kori do u remember what u said to me last night? Troughing in the rockies High to northeast?
Quoting 1261. bigwes6844:

Kori do u remember what u said to me last night? Troughing in the rockies High to northeast?


It actually does look like that trough departing the northeast is lifting out; you can tell because the vorticity is strongest on the right side, as opposed to the south, which would indicate a digging trough.

So yes, that system over the Bahamas would probably come more west, rather than following the weakness into Bermuda.

Also, the longitude of that particular system is already well west of the clearly apparent weakness near Bermuda.
Quoting 1262. KoritheMan:


It actually does look like that trough departing the northeast is lifting out; you can tell because the vorticity is strongest on the right side, as opposed to the south, which would indicate a digging trough.

So yes, that system over the Bahamas would probably come more west, rather than following the weakness into Bermuda.

Also, the longitude of that particular system is already well west of the clearly apparent weakness near Bermuda.
yes kori! dats y i asked this would be dangerous if this comes true thank god its two weeks out
Quoting 1263. bigwes6844:
yes kori! dats y i asked this would be dangerous if this comes true thank god its two weeks out


I guarantee you that prediction will be a distant memory tomorrow, lol.

Still, the season is likely about to ramp up, and I still can't fathom how the United States is going to avoid at least having a couple more landfalls this year.
fish storm out to sea only one storm now.
COFFEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Good Morning Vietnammmmmmmmmmmmm! errrrrrrrrrr I mean Class!

Quoting HimacaneBrees:
COFFEEE!!!!!!!!!!!!!


Dinner!!!!!!!
1271. GatorWX
Morning! I see the gulf blob is still there ;) Things do indeed look like they may ramp up soon. Sigh, said that before.



Quoting 1271. GatorWX:
Morning! I see the gulf blob is still there ;) Things do indeed look like they may ramp up soon. Sigh, said that before.





Yeah heard that before Lol. But me thinks you are correct this time
Quoting 1271. GatorWX:
Morning! I see the gulf blob is still there ;) Things do indeed look like they may ramp up soon. Sigh, said that before.





I think things will get going .........seeing lots of circles in the atlantic with a " L " in the middle of the circle. Sure, they change run to run, disappear, then show up again....but Im thinking a couple of them are going amount to something.
1274. GatorWX
Quoting HimacaneBrees:


Yeah heard that before Lol. But me thinks you are correct this time


Well thanks. I'll toast my cup o coffee to that. Been bored with the tropics, although we've had some hellacious storms here the past two days. Incredibly unstable. Looks drier today just looking at the moon. Not nearly the vapor as yesterday.
1275. GatorWX
Trends trends trends.
Had a little shower come through out here earlier. It's definitely hot, wet and humid out here in the GOM where I be at.
good morning Robin Williams, wait no I mean HH-Joe
1278. GatorWX
Humidity was 96 yesterday. Only 95 this am. Maybe it's a bit more moist than the moon would suggest.
Hope I am wrong.......but do think US Mainland and some of the islands will get hit by a bad storm this year.......The setup of steering currents has been pretty status quo and the US has a bulleseye on it.
Quoting 1277. HimacaneBrees:
good morning Robin Williams, wait no I mean HH-Joe


Good Morning Cat Daddy
Quoting 1276. HimacaneBrees:
Had a little shower come through out here earlier. It's definitely hot, wet and humid out here in the GOM where I be at.


Crank that a/c bro!
Quoting 1281. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Crank that a/c bro!


fuh sho!!! I been keeping my large butt on the inside where the ac is kicking
Quoting 1282. HimacaneBrees:


fuh sho!!! I been keeping my large butt on the inside where the ac is kicking


just keep on the inside..DO NOT volunteer to replace the guy/gal that is adding pipe!
Forecast for today is "clear and still".
Had the same forecast the other day and they got it correct I guess, cause it was Clear up to your a** and still raining.
if you have someone hooking up pipe....lol
Are you guys drilling? Or? How far out is your rig in the GOM?
1287. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks..Blogs Coffee is Perked......
GM Largo!
Quoting 1285. HurricaneHunterJoe:
if you have someone hooking up pipe....lol


Yeah we call them "floorhands" or "roughnecks"

I'm Chief Electrician/ Electronics Tech. my duties also include Head coffee maker, marriage counselor, plumber, and shade tree mechanic

I've pretty much done everything out here, except cook and fly the helicopter.


Thundery here along the Gulf Coast this morning.

Again...
God, I hope we get some rain from those 2 tropical systems forecast to head north up baja....we need it bad! at least it looks the the sw usa will get some if we do not. Saying a prayer....1/2 normal rain the last 2 years in soo cal...and looks like a strong La Nina may be coming.
Quoting 1286. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Are you guys drilling? Or? How far out is your rig in the GOM?



Yeah we're drilling in Main Pass in 290 ft of water.(approx 70 miles east of Venice La.) 21,000 ft well. We are around 14,000 right now. It's been a tough one. We've been on this location since December and it was "supposed" to be a 90 day job. Problem after Problem. Took a really bad kick a few months ago but we controlled it and kept it in the ground (you don't see the ones that go right on the news).
1293. LargoFl
Quoting 1288. HurricaneHunterJoe:
GM Largo!
good morning joe..fingers crossed some of that tropical moisture makes it up to you next few days.
Quoting 1289. HimacaneBrees:


Yeah we call them "floorhands" or "roughnecks"

I'm Chief Electrician/ Electronics Tech. my duties also include Head coffee maker, marriage counselor, plumber, and shade tree mechanic

I've pretty much done everything out here, except cook and fly the helicopter.





consoler in chief?.....LOL
1295. LargoFl
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ALONG
SEA BREEZE AND OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.
SOME STORMS COULD BE STRONG WITH THE MAIN HAZARDS BEING STRONG
WINDS...FREQUENT TO CONTINUOUS LIGHTNING...SMALL HAIL AND HEAVY
RAINFALL.

...FLOOD IMPACT...
HEAVY RAINFALL YESTERDAY RESULTED IN FLOODING AND DAMAGE TO ROADS
ACROSS PASCO AND HERNANDO COUNTIES. DUE TO THE RISK FOR ADDITIONAL
HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY ACROSS THESE AREAS...A FLOOD WATCH IS IN
EFFECT FROM 2 PM TO 9 PM. SEE LATEST FLOOD WATCH FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED
EACH DAY. THE STRONGEST STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY
WINDS...FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND HEAVY RAINFALL.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTERS SHOULD MONITOR THE WEATHER AND SELF ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.

$$

JELSEMA
1296. GatorWX
Mornin Largo! How'd Tampa bay fair yesterday. Couldn't take the blog atmosphere yesterday after work. Good grief.
Quoting 1292. HimacaneBrees:



Yeah we're drilling in Main Pass 290 ft of water.(approx 70 miles east of Venice La.) 21,000 ft well. We are around 14,000 right now. It's been a tough one. We've been on this location since December and it was "supposed" to be a 90 day job. Problem after Problem. Took a really bad kick a few months ago but we controlled it and kept it in the ground (you don't see the ones that go right on the news).


My goodness.......a 4 mile deep well ! ......what the heck is the drilling depth record?
Quoting 1293. LargoFl:
good morning joe..fingers crossed some of that tropical moisture makes it up to you next few days.


thanks bro! love the smell after it rains good here! ya get a mix of chaparrel, pine trees and dirt.....a quite good smell.....lol.......I am not to hard to please...lol
1299. GatorWX
Where you at Joe?

1300. LargoFl
Quoting 1296. GatorWX:
Mornin Largo! How'd Tampa bay fair yesterday. Couldn't take the blog atmosphere yesterday after work. Good grief.
good morning,here's what happend in my county as of last night..they got hit much harder in hernando and pasco counties.................Pinellas County

Street flooding has been reported in Clearwater on Fort Harrison
Street flooding reported in Largo
Approx. 3 feet of water reported at the intersections of Belcher and Ulmerton roads in Clearwater
45 mph wind gusts reported at Albert Whitted Airport in downtown St. Pete
Power outages reported in Largo and Clearwater
problem is most times....we just get the added humidity and no precip
Quoting 1297. HurricaneHunterJoe:


My goodness.......a 4 mile deep well ! ......what the heck is the drilling depth record?



35,050 TVD (total vertical depth) and measured depth of 35,055 by the Deepwater Horizon in 2009.
1303. GatorWX
Quoting LargoFl:
good morning,here's what happend in my county as of last night..they got hit much harder in hernando and pasco counties.................Pinellas County

Street flooding has been reported in Clearwater on Fort Harrison
Street flooding reported in Largo
Approx. 3 feet of water reported at the intersections of Belcher and Ulmerton roads in Clearwater
45 mph wind gusts reported at Albert Whitted Airport in downtown St. Pete
Power outages reported in Largo and Clearwater


Well Jeez! Heckuva storm out on Boca Grande. Mad amounts of lightning. I'd guess 25-30 winds, about .75 inch or so. Not horrible, but the rally keeps rising.
Quoting 1292. HimacaneBrees:



Yeah we're drilling in Main Pass in 290 ft of water.(approx 70 miles east of Venice La.) 21,000 ft well. We are around 14,000 right now. It's been a tough one. We've been on this location since December and it was "supposed" to be a 90 day job. Problem after Problem. Took a really bad kick a few months ago but we controlled it and kept it in the ground (you don't see the ones that go right on the news).


Is it a new well in an established field? Or and exploratory well? What is the expected return in barrels of oil?
1305. LargoFl
Quoting 1303. GatorWX:


Well Jeez! Heckuva storm out on Boca Grande. Mad amounts of lightning. I'd guess 25-30 winds, about .75 inch or so. Not horrible, but the rally keeps rising.
yes and more to come once again this evening..gee..
1306. GatorWX
Quoting HimacaneBrees:



35,050 total vertical depth and measured depth of 35,055 by the Deepwater Horizon in 2009.
Good morning, afternoon, or evening, everyone. A warm 74 degrees with a high of 94 expected. Another 30% chance of rain, but my hopes aren't high.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce,cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
1308. LargoFl
18z GFS for FRI precip..............
Quoting 1302. HimacaneBrees:



35,050 total vertical depth and measured depth of 35,055 by the Deepwater Horizon in 2009.


WOW! Isn't that the rig where the well was leaking in the GOM? and it caught fire?
Quoting 1304. HurricaneHunterJoe:


Is it a new well in an established field? Or and exploratory well? What is the expected return in barrels of oil?



Exploratory. But there are a bunch of platforms with producing wells in this area. Both oil and gas.

My night is over. Ya'll play nice today.
Quoting 1307. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon, or evening, everyone. A warm 74 degrees with a high of 94 expected. Another 30% chance of rain, but my hopes aren't high.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce,cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!

Now that sounds good but it's too early and I'm way too lazy to get up and out and go do something about it. Enjoy!
Only 91 here today, the low is only 79 though.
Quoting 1310. HimacaneBrees:



Exploratory. But there are a bunch of platforms with producing wells in this area. Both oil and gas.

My night is over. Ya'll play nice today.


Take care Brees!
Quoting 1307. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon, or evening, everyone. A warm 74 degrees with a high of 94 expected. Another 30% chance of rain, but my hopes aren't high.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce,cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


Im on the way! Let me warn you, Im a big and still growing old man!
1314. LargoFl
NAM precip for Sunday........
1315. GatorWX
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon, or evening, everyone. A warm 74 degrees with a high of 94 expected. Another 30% chance of rain, but my hopes aren't high.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce,cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


Now that's breakfast. I should start eating more. Gosh that sounds good. Andouille, peppers onions shrooms and Swiss. Just thought that sounded like a good omelette. Maybe some Tasso? Mmm. You got me hungry. Enjoying my Naked smoothie and dark roast coffee with agave nectar and h and h. Best I could do.
Quoting 1314. LargoFl:
NAM precip for Sunday........


Well, that does not bode well if correct
See if Monday is better, it the NAM goes out that far
Finally the ECMWF is hinting of two possible storms between the Lesser Ant and CV during the next 10 days.
Good morning. This is towards the end of the 6z GFS run, showing three systems- the one in the Gulf is homegrown.

1320. Gearsts
1321. MahFL
One good thing, between the CV islands and FL is a corridor of 20 kts or less shear.
1322. HCW
IMPACT WX UPDATE:

Disturbance 38 Producing Thunderstorms, Unlikely to Develop
5:30 AM CDT, Friday, August 23rd
Disturbance 38 is currently located in the northern Gulf of Mexico offshore Alabama and Mississippi moving westward at 12-15 mph. It is expected to produce thunderstorms today in the lease areas offshore Mississippi and southeast Louisiana, where the strongest thunderstorms could produce brief wind gusts as high as 50 to 60 mph. Some slight weakening is likely to begin by late this afternoon as the disturbance continues westward offshore Louisiana. Offshore western Louisiana and Texas, the highest wind gusts in scattered thunderstorms could reach 45-50 mph tonight through Saturday. Development is not expected.
morning
there are signs that the tropical atlantic is about to take off. conditions for cyclogenesis are getting better. As a result the reliable models are at long last hinting of tropical activity the next 10 days. That being said I am NOW looking at an area in the CATL which although weak at this time, is slowly showing signs of organaisation
Quoting 1290. PensacolaDoug:
Thundery here along the Gulf Coast this morning.

Again...


Yup, lookin' a bit ominous to the southeast back toward you, PD. Still no low pressure on the map. :-(. But. It's a beautiful sunrise, too, over those dark clouds.

Thanks for the eye-opener, Largo! ;-). It's TGIF, sure hope the blog plays nice today!


Quoting 1318. HuracandelCaribe:
Finally the ECMWF is hinting of two possible storms between the Lesser Ant and CV during the next 10 days.


And of course, they are fishes ?
Quoting 1324. moonlightcowboy:


Yup, lookin' a bit ominous to the southeast back toward you, PD. Still no low pressure on the map. :-(. But. It's a beautiful sunrise, too, over those dark clouds.

Thanks for the eye-opener, Largo! ;-). It's TGIF, sure hope the blog plays nice today!



I see it on radar. Next round will be moving thru my area (Bayou Grande, Pensacola NAS) during the next hour or so.

Quoting 1325. CaribBoy:


And of course, they are fishes ?


Let's hope.
they will give you a raft put you out to sea if a luis type of system flattens your island
1329. beell
“There's no lack of void.”
― Samuel Beckett, Waiting for Godot
Good morning everyone! Well made it 2 days in a row without rain. So far so good today but there are storms out there in the Gulf. Hopefully this whole system will continue to push West and keep us out of the direct path of these storms!

1331. K8eCane
Quoting 1324. moonlightcowboy:


Yup, lookin' a bit ominous to the southeast back toward you, PD. Still no low pressure on the map. :-(. But. It's a beautiful sunrise, too, over those dark clouds.

Thanks for the eye-opener, Largo! ;-). It's TGIF, sure hope the blog plays nice today!


You guys just keep an eye to the sky.
We have already had some weird, interesting weather this season.
There could be more.
My father is 80 years old.Has lived here ( Holden Beach NC) all his life. Been right thru the eye of 5 Hurricanes.
But he said he has never seen it rain as hard as it did the other day.
All his senses and his mind are very intact LOL
Just keep an eye to the sky down there
Quoting 1290. PensacolaDoug:
Thundery here along the Gulf Coast this morning.

Again...


Far enough offshore not to affect me so far but they look pretty close to you off to my West.
94L COMING SOON 16N 38W
Quoting 1334. stoormfury:
94L COMING SOON 16N 38W


Help me send it west, the weather is so boring here.
SAL FORECAST IS NEVER A BUST !! I'M JUST SICK... GO AWAY SAL, ENOUGH IS ENOUGH
MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO CONTINUED TO FORECAST A RAPID DECREASE
IN PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AS THE SAHARAN AIR LAYER
IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD WESTWARDS ACROSS REGION.
1338. K8eCane
Quoting 1335. CaribBoy:


Help me send it west, the weather is so boring here.


you have to talk to KEEPER OF THE GATE about that
Quoting 1338. K8eCane:


you have to talk to KEEPER OF THE GATE about that


Lol okay
6Z GFS .....>> :-(
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 23 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE GULF OF
MEXICO. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS NOT EXPECTED
WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD AT ABOUT 10 MPH ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND
NORTHWESTERN GULF OF MEXICO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. THIS SYSTEM
HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT... OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT FIVE DAYS.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER BEVEN
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
500 AM PDT FRI AUG 23 2013

FOR THE EASTERN NORTH PACIFIC...EAST OF 140 DEGREES WEST LONGITUDE..

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON TROPICAL
DEPRESSION NINE-E...LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST
OF CABO SAN LUCAS MEXICO.

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE COULD FORM SOUTH OF THE SOUTHERN COAST OF
MEXICO BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS APPEAR
CONDUCIVE FOR GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...
NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.
1343. K8eCane
Quoting 1339. CaribBoy:


Lol okay


Post a couple pics of what your seashells look like down there. I have always loved shells.
Have them scattered in my flower beds and pots, all around the yard as decorations, even use a couple as ash trays.
But its never as much fun looking for them as after a storm.
Then some unusual ones tend to wash up
1344. SLU
Quoting 1336. CaribBoy:
SAL FORECAST IS NEVER A BUST !! I'M JUST SICK... GO AWAY SAL, ENOUGH IS ENOUGH


Welcome to the 2013 hurricane season.

NEXT TROPICAL WAVE TO
APPROACH WINDWARDS TONIGHT AND MOVE INTO SE CARIB SAT BUT IS
ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE ZONE OF SAL AND WILL ENCOUNTER STABLE
CONDITIONS ALOFT YIELDING LIMITED SIGNIFICANT CONVECTION.
TRADES N
OF THIS LARGE WAVE WILL FRESHEN ACROSS E CARIB WITH SEAS BUILDING
5-6 FT SAT.

Morning Largo and all:
What a storm we had in Hernando county yesterday! Received 2.99 inches at our house, but due to the sandy soil, the water percs into the ground pretty fast. It was an entirely different story 10 miles east of us in the Brooksville area. Their soil is clay based and water does not drain very well, causing alot of flooding and headaches. Thankfully, I did not hear of any injuries. Sounds like more for us today. Take care down there!
Quoting 1345. Hernando44:
Morning Largo and all:
What a storm we had in Hernando county yesterday! Received 2.99 inches at our house, but due to the sandy soil, the water percs into the ground pretty fast. It was an entirely different story 10 miles east of us, in the Brooksville area. Their soil is clay based and water does not drain very well. Causing alot of flooding and headaches. Thankfully, I did not hear of any injuries. Sounds like more for us today. Take care down there!

4hour.power.outage.in.NW.hillsborough
First.time.in.years
1348. K8eCane
Quoting 1346. SunnyDaysFla:

4hour.power.outage.in.NW.hillsborough
First.time.in.years


didnt you guys have a tornado warning yesterday?
1349. IKE
Morning fellow bored bloggers....

Today is day 84 of the 2013 snooze-fest in the ATL. 99 days to go and it's over.

Current totals.....5-0-0.
Quoting 1348. K8eCane:


didnt you guys have a tornado warning yesterday?

Maybe---but.my.communication.with.the"outside"wor ld.got.limited..:P:
Among the many blazes burning across the overheated, drought-stricken Western US right now, crews seem to be losing the battle with California's Rim Fire, which sits just outside Yosemite National Park. Due to valiant efforts, the blaze was at 5% containment yesterday; that fell to 2% containmnet last evening, and now it's down to just 1% containment as it's grown to 100 square miles. This has led California Governor Jerry Brown to isse a state of emergency.

Inciweb lists both the fire's growth potential and terrain difficulty as "Extreme". In fact, most of the steep terrain is for all intents and purposes inaccesible to land-based fire crews due to both logistical and safety issues, so the only real fighting going on is via airborne tanker drops--and, so far at least, that hasn't been enough.
REALLY?? ENOUGH WITH THE BREAKFAST ON THE SIDEBOARD ALREADY!!!Almost every day this is posted. Give it a rest! Close the virtual restaurant!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce,cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
Top O the morning all. 79 here, 100% humidity. I can see the towers building offshore as dawn breaks across the bayou. 50% chance of rain thru the weekend. Let's hope the season stays quiet.
Have a good one Gro, Scott, VR, NC Pensacola, Nat and all
Peace out
1356. K8eCane
Quoting 1353. Waltanater:
REALLY?? ENOUGH WITH THE BREAKFAST ON THE SIDEBOARD ALREADY!!!Almost every day this is posted. Give it a rest! Close the virtual restaurant!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce,cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


LOOK Walternater

More than once, reading thru her menu has caused me to go to my kitchen and actually fix something nice for breakfast.
So Be Quiet
Quoting 1353. Waltanater:
REALLY?? ENOUGH WITH THE BREAKFAST ON THE SIDEBOARD ALREADY!!!Almost every day this is posted. Give it a rest! Close the virtual restaurant!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce,cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!

Don't take this personal but your a real downer. Kinda like a rain on your wedding day downer

1358. Brock31
Quoting 1357. StormPro:

. Kinda like a rain on your wedding day



Or, like a free ride...when you're already there.
7.23" of rain yesterday in Deland.

I would like to have a Happy Hour menu..Beer, chichen wings,etc......
Quoting 1360. Pensa2woodtx:
I would like to have a Happy Hour menu..Beer, chichen wings,etc......


I'm in!
This pic was takes a couple of days ago on US 441 right down the road from my house.

Quoting 1307. aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon, or evening, everyone. A warm 74 degrees with a high of 94 expected. Another 30% chance of rain, but my hopes aren't high.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce,cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!

Wow you must weigh 400 lbs! This menu is a recipe for heart failure, leave off all the pig meat and you might have a fighting chance...and what has this to do with weather?
It's Friday! Be happy! It takes too darn much energy to be negative.

It appears the mid Atlantic area will awaken this weekend as SAL settles in the western area. Let's just wait and see.
Quoting 1353. Waltanater:
REALLY?? ENOUGH WITH THE BREAKFAST ON THE SIDEBOARD ALREADY!!!Almost every day this is posted. Give it a rest! Close the virtual restaurant!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce,cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


Let me guess mama doesn't feed u.
Quoting 1360. Pensa2woodtx:
I would like to have a Happy Hour menu..Beer, chichen wings,etc......


Great breakfast menu...YUM
Tweet by Blake says not so fast with MJO.



Eric Blake‏@EricBlake12
Active MJO still coming, but models too fast by at least a few days on the progression into the Altantic-- Phase 1

Link
1368. PTXer
Quoting 1353. Waltanater:
REALLY?? ENOUGH WITH THE BREAKFAST ON THE SIDEBOARD ALREADY!!!Almost every day this is posted. Give it a rest! Close the virtual restaurant!



And almost every day someone's pretty grumpy!
Quoting 1367. Tropicsweatherpr:
Tweet by Blake says not so fast with MJO.



Eric Blake‏@EricBlake12
Active MJO still coming, but models too fast by at least a few days on the progression into the Altantic-- Phase 1

Link



MJO has been forecast to arrive since JUNE....not sure it will get here the way the Pacific has been.
Good morning all...

Good morning!:) off to work!
Quoting 1353. Waltanater:
REALLY?? ENOUGH WITH THE BREAKFAST ON THE SIDEBOARD ALREADY!!!Almost every day this is posted. Give it a rest! Close the virtual restaurant!

Breakfast's on the sideboard: omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesy grits, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, Whole Wheat Greek Yogurt Pancakes with fruit sauce,cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!


Comments like this are likely to get you voted off the island.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1373. 69Viking:


Comments like this are likely to get you voted off the island.


That was awesome, and a good morning to you!
Just looked at Pressure around our blob in the Gulf and its down about 2.5mb compared to this same time yesterday...but still to high Pressure 1014.1 mb
Quoting 1376. GeoffreyWPB:


Ugh... I guess no top down on my JEEP this weekend again. So sick of this non stop rain.
1379. GatorWX
Quoting StormTrackerScott:
7.23" of rain yesterday in Deland.



Good grief!
kat8cane sent you a snake email link
Quoting 1363. congaline:

Wow you must weigh 400 lbs! This menu is a recipe for heart failure, leave off all the pig meat and you might have a fighting chance...and what has this to do with weather?


Don't worry about it, we all need to eat breakfast so we can all look at the weather and blog. We have this every morning and a lot of us enjoy the sweet thoughts. So if ya don't like it don't read it!!!!!!
Weather wise I see we have some storms in the gulf that gave Florida a lot of rain.

sheri
Looks like I'm in for it. Under a severe thunderstorm warning here in Chesterfield county.