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Chapala Slams Yemen: First Hurricane-Strength Cyclone on Record

By: Bob Henson 6:41 PM GMT on November 03, 2015

Residents of southern Yemen are assessing the damage after Cyclone Chapala brought dramatic flooding to the region on Monday night into Tuesday. According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Chapala made landfall near 14.1°N, 48.65°E between 01Z and 02Z Wednesday (4:00 - 5:00 am local time, or 8:00 – 9:00 pm Tuesday EST). This location is about 40 miles southwest of the coastal city of Mukalla (Al Mukalla), which was slammed by Chapala’s right-hand eyewall and some of its heaviest rains. Infrared satellite imagery shows a pronounced burst of convection (showers and thunderstorms) near and just west of Mukalla as Chapala made landfall.


Figure 1. A MODIS satellite view of Chapala as it approached the Gulf of Aden on Tuesday, November 2, 2015. Image credit: NASA EarthData.


Figure 2. Although Chapala’s eye was indistinct at landfall, thunderstorms intensified near its center as it came ashore, as shown in the pink and grey in this infrared satellite image taken near landfall (0100Z Wednesday, November 3, 2015). Image credit: Scott Bachmeier, CIMMS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin.


Yemen’s first hurricane-strength cyclone on record
IMD estimates Chapala’s peak winds at landfall as 65-70 knots (75-80 mph). India uses 3-minute sustained wind speeds, as opposed to the 1-minute average used by the National Hurricane Center. Guidance from NHC suggests that Chapala’s peak 1-minute winds would likely be several percent higher. Supporting the idea that Chapala made landfall at hurricane strength, the weather station at the Riyan airport, located about 20 miles northeast of Mukalla (Al Mukalla), recorded top sustained winds of 73 mph, gusting to 89 mph, before the sensor stopped reporting. Winds at Riyan were still increasing at the time, suggesting that hurricane-force winds probably occurred at some point in Chapala’s path during landfall. The nation experienced a destructive tropical depression in 2008 and a tropical storm-strength cyclone in 1960, but there are no hurricane-strength landfalls on record. Satellite records extend back to 1990, while a separate IMD database goes back to 1891.

Chapala moved mainly toward the west after landfall, hugging the Yemeni coastline, but the center is now making its way inland. At 15Z Wednesday (10:00 am EDT), the Joint Typhoon Warning Center placed Chapala’s center near 14.1°N, 47.5°E, or about 100 miles west of Mukalla. Based on the limited data available, JTWC estimated that Chapala still had sustained winds of 55 knots (62 mph).


Figure 3. An infrared view of Cyclone Chapala at 1530Z (10:30 am EST) Wednesday, November 3, 2015. Image credit: CIMMS/SSEC/University of Wisconsin.

As expected, the dry air and high terrain of southern Yemen has taken its toll on Chapala. Satellite imagery shows that the cyclone has become highly disorganized, with showers and thunderstorms decreasing and weakening around its ill-defined center. A pocket of more intense thunderstorms has popped up along the high terrain of Yemen’s west coast, well away from Chapala’s core circulation. Strong thunderstorms have also persisted in northeast Somalia, across the Gulf of Aden from Chapala. Villages along the Somalian coast have been affected by heavy rain and coastal flooding, according to Garowe Online. Prior to Chapala’s landfall in Yemen, the remote island of Socotra was hard-hit by the cyclone’s left-hand flank, with at least three fatalities reported by Reuters via a local official.


Figure 4. Waves ahead of Cyclone Chapala batter the coast of Yemen near Mukalla on Monday, November 2, 2015. Image credit: AP Photo/Mohammed Bazahier.

With Yemen plagued by civil war, it is difficult to know how extensive the damage from Chapala has been. Photos and video emerging on social media from Mukalla show major flooding, with several feet of water cascading through streets and out of the banks of a canal that runs through the heart of the city. Independent Yemen-based journalist Iona Craig reported a preliminary total of 25 injuries and 21 people missing. No fatalities have been reported thus far--an encouraging sign, although it is still very early in the process of damage assessment. “The damage is enormous,” Fahd Kafain, Yemen’s minister of fisheries, told AFP. The mountain valleys of the Hadramout region have experienced dramatic runoff from Chapala’s rains (see embedded YouTube clip below). Hadramout suffered more than 200 fatalities related to the 2008 Yemen cyclone. The impact of Chapala will undoubtedly hamper the already-difficult tasks facing humanitarian relief agencies in Yemen. Storm surge expert Hal Needham has a blog post this morning on Chapala’s landfall, including background on how topography helped tamp down the potential storm surge along the Yemen coastline.

Recent runs of the ECWMF, GFS, and UKMET models suggest that a disturbance now off the southwest coast of India could undergo tropical development in the Arabian Sea later this week, again heading toward the Arabian Peninsula. If a new cyclone were to pass directly over the same region as Chapala, it would be unlikely to attain the same strength, given the cooler waters that were stirred up by Chapala’s passage.


Figure 5. Cyclone Chapala (left) and a disturbance off the southwest coast of India, as captured by satellite at 18Z (1:00 pm EST) Wednesday, November 3, 2015. Image credit: EUMETSAT/JTWC/SATOPS.

Did climate change have anything to do with Chapala?
There is no doubt that Chapala was an extremely unusual cyclone--although we don’t know exactly how unusual, given the sketchy nature of tropical cyclone records for the Arabian Sea prior to 1990. Assuming that other factors line up favorably, then warm sea-surface temperatures boost the odds of cyclone development. In this case, Chapala formed and traveled over waters that were at record-warm levels for this time of year (see Figure 6 below). Chapala was not only the second-strongest cyclone on record for the Arabian Sea, but it was also the longest-lived at Category 3 strength. According to WU contributor Phil Klotzbach, Chapala was a major cyclone for 3.75 days, breaking the old record of 3.25 days set in 2007 by Cyclone Sidr. Due to its longevity and strength, Chapala has also generated more accumulated cyclone energy than any other Arabian Sea cyclone on record.


Figure 4. Tropical Cyclone Chapala performed its remarkable rapid intensification cycle over the warmest waters ever observed for this time of year over the Arabian Sea, as depicted in the September 2015 global climate summary from NOAA/NCEI.

Tropical cyclones are most common in the Arabian Sea in spring and autumn, during the transition periods between the strong southwest flow of the summer monsoon and the strong northeast flow that predominates in winter. A 2011 paper in Nature led by Amato Evan (University of Virginia) found that during the pre-monsoon period (spring), vertical wind shear decreased and Arabian Sea cyclones became considerably stronger in 1997-2010 as compared to 1979-1996. The authors attribute the reduced shear to a regional increase in sun-blocking air pollution, mainly black carbon and sulfates). A much more subtle decrease in strength was found for post-monsoon (autumn) cyclones in the Arabian Sea. However, the authors speculated that if emissions continued to grow, “it is plausible that very intense tropical cyclones, which have so far been limited to the pre-monsoon period, could begin to emerge in the post-monsoon season as well."

Bob Henson



Hurricane Climate Change

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Bob...Watching a tropical cyclone hitting a desert is weird...:)
NHC 98E INVEST 20151103 1800 147N 1102W
Well done, Bob "Home Alone". Thanks!
I wonder how much reliable information of the damage in Yemen will ever be available, given the current circumstances down there. Combing through Arabian tweets and other news I've seen more graphic photos of bodies (some from children) than for a long time, unfortunately, but those fatalities were not due to cyclone Chapala but due to destructive human activities.
Thanks for the Update on Chapala, Mr. Henson....
Since 8 PM Tuesday EST is in the future, and the cyclone has already made landfall, it couldn't have made landfall between 8 PM & 9 PM Tuesday EST.
I wonder if the storm in Yemen had (or is likely to have) any impacts on the war. I suspect more instability where the damage was concentrated creates longer-term risks, but as I understand it, that area is not the strategic area where most of the bombing is going on.
Thanks dok henson!
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #48
CYCLONIC STORM CHAPALA (ARB04-2015)
20:30 PM IST November 3 2015
=============================

At 15:00 PM UTC, The Cyclonic Storm Chapala over Yemen moved westwards with a speed of 10km/h during past 6 hours, and now lays centered near 14.2N 47.1E, about 45 km south southeast of Ataq (Yemen) (41437).

It would move west northwestwards and weaken further into a depression during next 12 hours.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 40 knots with gusts of 50 knots. The estimated central pressure of the cyclonic storm is 998 hPa. Sea condition along and off Yemen coast is very rough to high.
Quoting 5. DCSwithunderscores:

Since 8 PM Tuesday EST is in the future, and the cyclone has already made landfall, it couldn't have made landfall between 8 PM & 9 PM Tuesday EST.


ya, it should be written as this..

"According to the Indian Meteorological Department (IMD), Chapala made landfall near 14.1°N, 48.65°E between 01Z and 02Z Tuesday (4:00 - 5:00 am local time (Yemen), or 8:00 – 9:00 pm Monday EST)"
The source of the twitter feed from Iona Craig in the entry (apart from the other one from Jane Novak) is a really good one. Here one of the latest tweets which refers to an Arabian facebook site:

Iona Craig @ionacraig 12 Min.Vor 12 Minuten
More than 100 homes reported destroyed by #Chapala in Shabwa, #Yemen https://www.facebook.com/almasdar/posts/1010259615 683145 - via @almasdaronline

Following the link and copying the text into google translator one learns about a lot of houses washed away (or on the brink of collapsing) in coastal areas. To some settlements contact has been lost. Agricultural land, irrigation canals and roads are destroyed ... And a lot of provinces in the country already suffered from a shortage of food before Chapala hit.
------------------------

BBC weather video with some background information:
Cyclone pounds southern Yemen triggering flash floods
Any thoughts about that tropical wave by Puerto Rico & the Dominican Republic?.
Our local Mets here in South Florida said that we can expect rain for a couple of day starting late today to tomorrow,in the Satellite presentation we can see a lot of moisture with this wave.
I will not be surprise at all the way the record heat is going and the waters are very hot for this time of year to see the first tropical system late in November or even in December for the first time in many years,just my humble opinion.
We don't see any cold front or weather coming down any time soon!!!.
Quoting 11. Grothar:




I haven't heard anything about a system in the Pacific. Guessing this is new? Another potential system interacting with a front moving down here. How sweet...
92 with a 105 heat index @ the PWS just to my south.
Was looking for some nicer weather news to call it a day but I only came across the article below, sorry ... Nevertheless, calm weather continues in Germany with - maybe! - a change to a little wetter weather some days ahead (very welcome after nine months of drought in my place, but only few amounts of rain in forecast). Have a nice evening everyone and thoughts to Yemen.

From Libya to El Nino, U.N. experts warn: there's worse to come
Source: Reuters - Tue, 3 Nov 2015 16:47 GMT
GENEVA, Nov 3 (Reuters) - A group of U.N. experts tasked with forecasting the next disasters likely to require billions of dollars in humanitarian aid has warned of deepening crises in global hotspots from Burundi to Afghanistan over the next six months.
In an unusually frank assessment for a U.N. publication, the six-monthly "Alert, Early Warning and Readiness Report" said Libya could fall apart, Burundi could see another coup, Islamist militants would gain territory in Afghanistan and Mali, and Ethiopia would not have enough food to cope with its drought. ...

More see link above.

Always looking on the ...

Pic probably from Yemen, permanently posted in social media today. At last here in Yemen news.
Quoting 13. SouthCentralTx:



I haven't heard anything about a system in the Pacific. Guessing this is new? Another potential system interacting with a front moving down here. How sweet...


More rain for TX!

The heat in Florida is ridiculous for early November! Its 92 in Jacksonville and 90 in my hometown of Deland. I'm glad I moved to Greenville, SC where it is now 63 outside!!

Eric
In this area, WNW of Brooksville, a heavy summer-type convergence shower has just occurred, reminiscent of the afternoon showers/storms in the summer. My estimate is that about 3/4" of rain fell in a half-hour. I have never seen this occur in November in this area of the state. At least my dry lawn/shrubbery was watered (I was going to water it late this afternoon after the temperatures cooled down).
More rain, and down in the 40s possibly next week in SE TX
Can't even get the radar up on this site, time for new developers at WU, when you hit refresh you can see all the things that are loading at the bottom left corner, wayyyyy too much stuff and spam being loaded on WU
Damn it is smoking hot! at this weather station just outside of Orlando and I don't mean smoking hot women, I mean smoking hot temperatures. Daytona Beach Int'l Airport hit an all-time record high of 90 degrees yesterday. Link

Saint Cloud, FL
3:03 PM EST on November 03, 2015 (GMT -0500) Somewhat Crooked Camp - Suburban Estates
Temperature
Pressure
Wind
Forecast
Station Offline
Send Report
Elev 72 ft 28.11 °N, 81.18 °W | Updated 8 sec ago

Partly Cloudy
Partly Cloudy
95.2 °F
Feels Like 106 °F

N3.7
Wind from S
Gusts 5.8 mph
Today is forecast to be NEARLY THE SAME temperature as yesterday.
Today
High 92 | Low 71 °F
0% Chance of Precip.
Yesterday
High 95 | Low 72.1 °F
Precip. 0 in
Sun & Moon 6:37 am 5:39 pm
Waning Gibbous, 47% visible

Pressure 29.95 in
Visibility 10.0 miles
Clouds Scattered Clouds 4000 ft
Heat Index 106 °F
Dew Point 73 °F
Humidity 46%
Rainfall 0.00 in
Snow Depth Not available.
UV 3 out of 12
Pollen 5.70 out of 12
Air Quality Not available.
Flu Activity Not available.
METAR KISM 031950Z 17005KT 10SM SCT040 32/20

CLIMATE REPORT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
133 AM EST TUE NOV 3 2015


...................................

...THE DAYTONA BEACH CLIMATE SUMMARY FOR NOVEMBER 2 2015...

CLIMATE NORMAL PERIOD 1981 TO 2010
CLIMATE RECORD PERIOD 1923 TO 2015


WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST
VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR
NORMAL
................................................. .................
TEMPERATURE (F)
YESTERDAY
MAXIMUM 90R 210 PM 88 1951 79 11 65

Upper 70s and sunshine in Houston/Galveston region, Fall weather here. More rain, and colder for next week possibly
Not much rain in our forecast over the next week.

From accuweather:
"The storm track could lead to severe weather outbreaks, while the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic basin in general will have to be watched for tropical development," Noll said.

http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news/el-nin o-eastern-us-november-warmup-western-chill-stormy/ 53299849
The current pattern across the CONUS is absolutely locked in. Will be interesting to see just how long this can maintain.






Fall has arrived in earnest. Humidity 45%... currently 67F
Quoting 12. Hurricane1956:

Any thoughts about that tropical wave by Puerto Rico & the Dominican Republic?.
Our local Mets here in South Florida said that we can expect rain for a couple of day starting late today to tomorrow,in the Satellite presentation we can see a lot of moisture with this wave.
I will not be surprise at all the way the record heat is going and the waters are very hot for this time of year to see the first tropical system late in November or even in December for the first time in many years,just my humble opinion.
We don't see any cold front or weather coming down any time soon!!!.



Quoting 20. RitaEvac:

Can't even get the radar up on this site, time for new developers at WU, when you hit refresh you can see all the things that are loading at the bottom left corner, wayyyyy too much stuff and spam being loaded on WU


Yeah, like pictures that have nothing to do with weather.
Relatively nice day out today.
November 2015 has November 2009 written all over it.
Quoting 34. washingtonian115:

November 2015 has November 2009 written all over it.
Yep, some place may touch 80s this week.
Quoting 34. washingtonian115:

November 2015 has November 2009 written all over it.


November 2009 was followed by December 2009 and February 2010. Just sayin'
Quoting 36. georgevandenberghe:



November 2009 was followed by December 2009 and February 2010. Just sayin'
Like your talking! Anytime, those words are brought up from the winter a few years ago this image always comes up in my mind.
I hope the Yemenis are alright.
Quoting 38. Climate175:

Like your talking! Anytime, those words are brought up from the winter a few years ago this image always comes up in my mind.


Yeah those did come to mind. And then the summer of 2010 was outlier hot and long with spring beginning early and 90+ in April and the only June to average over 80F.
D.C has had two back to back snowy winters.Even more impressive was that both March 2014 and 2015 saw two major snow storms each.Will 2016 join? That will soon be determined spring 2016.
Quoting 33. Climate175:

Relatively nice day out today.


great day just over 70 for a high today
powerwashed the garbage room the moving room the outside garage area
got all the salt boxes washed out snow blower
tomorrow we powerwash underground parking garage
place the salt boxes out and have them filled
do maintenance on the snowblower get it ready for start up

enjoying this week of warm temps
Quoting 42. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:



great day just over 70 for a high today
powerwashed the garbage room the moving room the outside garage area
got all the salt boxes washed out snow blower
tomorrow we powerwash underground parking garage
place the salt boxes out and have them filled
do maintenance on the snowblower get it ready for start up

enjoying this week of warm temps

Gonna be good for raking up the leaves for the remaining trees that have leaves left to fall.
Thank You Mr. Henson; the issue of the modern era rareness of Arabian sea tropical storms, and the trajectory of this storm that dissipated quickly, has me wondering about antiquity and Middle Eastern flood stories (including Noah and the Ark) and whether some of the recorded (in terms of ancient manuscripts) flood events in that region may have been related to a tropical storm event where the storm/remnants penetrated further inland into the Nile Delta region. You would have massive flash flooding from the rainfall coming in into the desert and mountain areas, then continued flooding from river overflows......................Just sayin.





Quoting 43. Climate175:

Gonna be good for raking up the leaves for the remaining trees that have leaves left to fall.
Thursday landscapers will be here too do the leaf clean up maybe one more time after that and leaf pikup will be done till next fall
Very last call today from Germany with news from our famous and usually at this time of the year especially cold and wet, snowy, foggy or windy Brocken mountain (3,743 ft) (translation by google and me ;-):

Fire after record heat on the Brocken
NDR (Northern German Television), Nov 3, 2015
Bocken mountain set a new heat record. On the highest mountain in northern Germany in the Harz 19.8 degrees Celsius (67.6F) were measured on late Tuesday morning, as announced by Klaus Adler of the weather station of German Weather Service. This was the highest ever detected temperature in that place in November. On Monday, the thermometer had shown 19 degrees. Reason is the current inversion of temperature, Adler said: Warm dry air of a high pressure area moves over cold moist air that is stuck in the valleys.

Visitors help firefighters
Probably due to the extreme drought there also was a fire on Brocken mountain on Tuesday, Adler said. Approximately 100 square meters of wasteland were in flames. The cause of the fire is unclear. No one was injured. About 25 fire fighters fought the flames. Fire fighters got the water from a mobile water tank which is available all year on Brocken. Even Adler himself, with colleagues and visitors, helped with shovels and buckets.

Dryness good for distance vision
The column of smoke was well visible in the clear and unusually warm weather, so the fire department. Reason for good distance vision is the extremely low humidity of 2 to 5 percent. So the 170 kilometer distant Taufstein mountain in the Hessian Vogelsberg had been visible, Adler said. South-east the cooling towers of a power plant in Leipzig were visible and to the north VW industries in Wolfsburg.



The fire on Brocken today.

Today's record November readings in a map from wetteronline.de

Locations with record readings are all on the highest summits of mountainous areas. In the plains (like my place near Frankfurt) it stayed cool and foggy.
Quoting 43. Climate175:

Gonna be good for raking up the leaves for the remaining trees that have leaves left to fall.


That's almost all of mine here in DC which are near peak color but very few dropping.
Quoting 47. georgevandenberghe:



That's almost all of mine here in DC which are near peak color but very few dropping.
don't worry they all fall at once after warm dry conditions this week make em crisp and brittle least bit of a breeze will do them in by the weekend
Quoting 44. weathermanwannabe:

Thank You Mr. Henson; the issue of the modern era rareness of Arabian sea tropical storms, and the trajectory of this storm that dissipated quickly, has me wondering about antiquity and Middle Eastern flood stories (including Noah and the Ark) and whether some of the recorded (in terms of ancient manuscripts) flood events in that region may have been related to a tropical storm event where the storm/remnants penetrated further inland into the Nile Delta region. You would have massive flash flooding from the rainfall coming in into the desert and mountain areas, then continued flooding from river overflows......................Just sayin.








It also makes me wonder how our prehistoric ancestors reacted to 300 feet of sea level rise over a few thousand years at the end of the last ice age with some of the rises being rapid and some (the Black Sea) being catastrophically rapid when the shallow sill separating it from the Mediterranean Sea was overtopped and washed out.
Quoting 41. washingtonian115:

D.C has had two back to back snowy winters.Even more impressive was that both March 2014 and 2015 saw two major snow storms each.Will 2016 join? That will soon be determined spring 2016.


Yeah the years my teens learned to drive, esp. 2015 when all three drove or were carpooled to school. Nerve racking!
Quoting 48. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

don't worry they all fall at once after warm dry conditions this week make em crisp and brittle least bit of a breeze will do them in by the weekend



Here in DC the heaviest fall rates are around 11/15 and cleanup is not wrapped up until the first week in December (Used to be U.S. thanksgiving weekend but that no longer works) But you are right about warm weather accelerating the process.
Quoting 15. barbamz:

Was looking for some nicer weather news to call it a day but I only came across the article below, sorry ... Nevertheless, calm weather continues in Germany with - maybe! - a change to a little wetter weather some days ahead (very welcome after nine months of drought in my place, but only few amounts of rain in forecast). Have a nice evening everyone and thoughts to Yemen.


There is somehow a space between one of the characters (between ...0601... and ...95911 at the end, I can't fix it).
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/0043165027601 95911/pdf

So, the Aden cyclone in 1885 had a landfalling pressure of 979 hPa (measured by a ship just offshore) and therefore could have been a category 1 storm just as Chapala.
Quoting 52. ChateauChalon:



There is somehow a space between one of the characters (between ...0601... and ...95911 at the end, I can't fix it).
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1256/0043165027601 95911/pdf

So, the Aden cyclone in 1885 had a landfalling pressure of 979 hPa (measured by a ship just offshore) and therefore could have been a category 1 storm just as Chapala.


try this

Link

Starting Round 2 of this system. CoCoRaHS gave us .05 for Round One
Chapala was not only the second-strongest cyclone on record for the Arabian Sea, but it was also the longest-lived at Category 3 strength. According to WU contributor Phil Klotzbach, Chapala was a major cyclone for 3.75 days, breaking the old record of 3.25 days set in 2007 by Cyclone Sidr. Due to its longevity and strength, Chapala has also generated more accumulated cyclone energy than any other Arabian Sea cyclone on record.

I have a question about this statement. Sidr '07 was a Bay of Bengal tropical cyclone, so does this mean the individual major cyclone day record and individual ACE record would extend to include the entire Northern Indian Basin, including the Bay of Bengal?
Quoting 54. PedleyCA:


Starting Round 2 of this system.

Rain ended immediately after I went back inside the building from lunch.
Quoting 54. PedleyCA:


Starting Round 2 of this system.


Missing me, as usual. Sunny and cold here.
Quoting 49. georgevandenberghe:



It also makes me wonder how our prehistoric ancestors reacted to 300 feet of sea level rise over a few thousand years at the end of the last ice age with some of the rises being rapid and some (the Black Sea) being catastrophically rapid when the shallow sill separating it from the Mediterranean Sea was overtopped and washed out.

Have you read 'After the Ice; a Global Human History', by Steven Mithen? Mithen tries to imagine how humans experienced the climate as it changed between 20,000 and 5,000 years BC. He created a character that moved around the globe at various critical times of change, and makes short fictional accounts of his experiences, based on archaeological evidence. The archaeological studies are cited extensively. It's sort of long, but interesting to pre-history and climate geeks, I think.
Quoting 34. washingtonian115:

November 2015 has November 2009 written all over it.
Good, hopefully it will be like the winter of '09-'10. Maybe, Florida will get in on some of the wintry stuff too.



Quoting 54. PedleyCA:


Starting Round 2 of this system. CoCoRaHS gave us .05 for Round One


Pretty weak huh? Got about the same down my place. Some mountain locations did ok


Current Version Previous Version: 1 2 3 4 5
MISCELLANEOUS HYDROLOGIC DATA


SRUS46 KSGX 040020
RRMSGX

PRELIMINARY STORM PRECIPITATION TOTALS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO
415 PM PST TUESDAY NOV 03 2015


RAWS MESONET ASOS AND ALERT 24-HOUR PRECIPITATION TOTALS AS OF

_________________________401 PM TUESDAY_________________________


.TOP RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM ALL ZONES

STATION PRECIP(IN) ELEVATION(FT)

1. RUNNING SPRINGS FS 0.86 6190
2. BIG BEAR LAKE 0.80 6768
3. PINE COVE 0.77 6299
4. PINE HILLS FS 0.75 3645
5. PINE HILLS RAWS 0.75 3600
6. PALOMAR CRS 0.74
7. YUCAIPA RIDGE 0.67 9020
8. LAKE CUYAMACA 0.64 4560
9. JULIAN RAWS 0.64 4240
10. IDYLLWILD 0.64 5370
11. MANZANITA FLATS 0.64 3920
12. ALANDALE 0.63 5800
49 degrees at the old homestead........getting kinda nippy........throw another log on the fire!


Weather Conditions for:
Sunshine Summit, CA. SSSSD (SDGE)
Elev: 3244 ft; Latitude: 33.344; Longitude: -116.732

Current time: Tue, 03 Nov 4:46 pm PST
Most Recent Observation: Tue, 03 Nov 4:30 pm PST
Explanation of Wx and Clouds columns.
Time Temp. Dew Relative Wind Wind Quality
Point Humidity Direction Speed Control
(PST) (f) (f) (%) (mph)
03 Nov 4:30 pm PST 49 35 59 WSW 4G06 OK
Quoting 59. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Good, hopefully it will be like the winter of '09-'10. Maybe, Florida will get in on some of the wintry stuff too.






Extreme weather can be fun but unfortunately that one really took its toll on Florida's fish population...

Link

Round 2 just got here....
Quoting 63. PedleyCA:


Round 2 just got here....


See those little streamers off the San Diego County coastline? Those are called "island effect showers". Let's see if they make it onshore land and then to me in the mountains.
Quoting 62. ChillinInTheKeys:



Extreme weather can be fun but unfortunately that one really took its toll on Florida's fish population...

Link
Not to mention it damages citrus crops which has an effect on Florida Agriculture and for farmers who have to contend with freezes and frost. It also causes a spike in the prices of consumer goods at the grocery stores. Link
Just look at the pretty colors from the El Nino, which of course is Spanish for The Nino.
Round 2 underway gunny! Them white puffas is rain showers in San Diego County. It is raining moderatly at this time!

A little vort max coming down into Soo Cal on the backside of the trof. Trof shows pretty well as a horseshoe over California with bottom of trof into Northern Baja.

What happens if the El Nino stay's permanently?

Becomes a Pacific squatter for a decade?

Talk among yourselves.


"Sippppppppp"............ahhhh'



'S
A rare thing on wu, a surface chart.

We should get IBM to make um for us .


Quoting 70. Grothar:


Looking good for a November Cape Verde Tropical Wave. So what is your thoughts on it, Grothar. Will we see Kate out of this to round out the season at 11 named storms?

Just look at the pretty colors from the El Nino, which of course is Spanish for The Nino.



And still climbing? A large swath of ocean with 2c- 4c warmer than normal and a few spots of 5c warmer. Is it not supposed to start winding down soon per the models?

Quoting 72. Patrap:

What happens if the El Nino stay's permanently?

Becomes a Pacific squatter for a decade?

Talk among yourselves.


"Sippppppppp"............ahhhh'



'S
Final Masquerade
Quoting 76. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Just look at the pretty colors from the El Nino, which of course is Spanish for The Nino.



And still climbing?




faster and faster
by late april the atlantic MDR sst's will be a furnace next season
Looks like a reinforcing shot of warm water to keep that red color going. The dark red color is like 6,000 miles long.

Geologists Find Evidence of Ancient Megatsunami in Cape Verde Islands

A team of geologists from Japan, the United States and Europe has found evidence that the sudden collapse of Fogo volcano – one of the tallest and most active oceanic volcanoes on our planet – approximately 73,000 years ago generated an ocean megatsunami that dwarfed anything ever seen by humans. The wave was up to 885 feet (270 m) high, tall enough to submerge Statue of Liberty and second level observation deck of the Eiffel Tower.


The wave generated by the collapse of Fogo volcano apparently swept boulders like this one up from the shoreline into Santiago island’s highlands. Here, a scientist chisels out a sample to establish the date of the tsunami. Image credit: Ricardo Ramalho.

Several years ago, Dr Ricardo Ramalho of the University of Bristol and co-authors were working on Santiago Island, the largest of the Cape Verde archipelago, when they spotted unusual boulders lying as far as 2,000 feet (610 m) inland and nearly 650 feet (200 m) above sea level.

Some are as big as delivery vans, and they are utterly unlike the young volcanic terrain on which they lie. Rather, they match marine-type rocks that ring the island’s shoreline: limestones, conglomerates and submarine basalts. Some weigh up to 770 tons.

These observations imply a catastrophic turbulent surge of water, compatible only with a giant tsunami impact which approached the island from the west, i.e. incoming from Fogo.


Boulder and sand deposits record impact of giant wave. Image credit: Ricardo Ramalho.

Using cutting-edge rock-dating techniques, the team estimated the tsunami happened 73,000 years ago, an age also consistent with collapse at nearby Fogo volcano.

Since sea level at the time was about 164 feet (50 m) lower than today, the scientists also estimate the tsunami hit Santiago with water levels rising to heights of 885 feet.

Nowadays, Fogo volcano towers 9,300 feet (2,829 m) above sea level, and erupts about every 20 years, most recently between November 2014 and February this year. Santiago Island lies 34 miles (55 km) from Fogo and is now home to some 250,000 people.

“The active volcano we see today grew on top of this collapse’s scar, being almost as tall and steep as the old volcano before the collapse,” said Dr Ramalho, lead author on a study published in the journal Science Advances on October 2.


Geologists think that the eastern slope of Fogo volcano crashed into the sea some 65,000 to 124,000 years ago, leaving a giant scar where a new volcano can be seen growing in this satellite image. Image credit: NASA.

“The potential energy for a new collapse therefore exists but what we don’t know if or when this is ever going to happen.”

The study’s findings provides a causal link between the field evidence of marine deposits at Santiago and the steep volcanic collapse at Fogo, indicating this collapse must have happened catastrophically, resulting in the megatsunami.

“We need to be vigilant, these findings stand as a warning that the hazard potential of volcanic island lateral collapses should not be underestimated, and consequently our society needs to do more to improve its resilience to such a threat,” Dr Ramalho said.

“To achieve this, we need to improve our understanding of what trigger volcanic collapses, how they operate and cause the generation of giant tsunamis, and how likely they are to reach distant coastlines. We also need to reinforce our volcano monitoring capabilities.”

_____

Ricardo S. Ramalho et al. 2015. Hazard potential of volcanic flank collapses raised by new megatsunami evidence. Science Advances, vol. 1, no. 9, e1500456; doi: 10.1126/sciadv.1500456


Getting much needed rain tonight:)
Quoting 84. hydrus:


lovely
Quoting 75. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looking good for a November Cape Verde Tropical Wave. So what is your thoughts on it, Grothar. Will we see Kate out of this to round out the season at 11 named storms?


Would be quite a nice surprise to see it developping rapidly near the N Leewards xD
93. OCF
Quoting 54. PedleyCA:
Starting Round 2 of this system. CoCoRaHS gave us .05 for Round One

Pretty little thunderstorm cell visible from Long Beach in the early evening, with the anvil top lit up from beneath by the urban lights. Radar puts it at the tip of the Palos Verdes peninsula, moving southeast - so it probably won't touch any more land after that.
lastest nam not too bad
Quoting 72. Patrap:

What happens if the El Nino stay's permanently?

Becomes a Pacific squatter for a decade?

Talk among yourselves.


"Sippppppppp"............ahhhh'



'S


We're waiting for the La-Nina super heated SST's through the MDR, Caribbean, and Gulf. We flip hard now with AGW, when the switch gets switched back, 2005 will come again. Think Super El-Nino's will become the norm and La-Nina's will bring epic tornado seasons and Atlantic basin storms. Possibility of El-Nino becoming the norm should not be discounted.
Central/North-Central TX folks. Fingers crossed that this week is not deja vu. At the very least, Thursday evening looks to be moderately wet with a few supercells along a line of from Southern OK South to about Waco.

Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
508 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015

TXZ171>173-183>194-202>209-217>225-228-041115-
LLANO-BURNET-WILLIAMSON-VAL VERDE-EDWARDS-REAL-KERR-BANDERA-
GILLESPIE-KENDALL-BLANCO-HAYS-TRAVIS-BASTROP-LEE- KINNEY-UVALDE-
MEDINA-BEXAR-COMAL-GUADALUPE-CALDWELL-FAYETTE-MAV ERICK-ZAVALA-
FRIO-ATASCOSA-WILSON-KARNES-GONZALES-DE WITT-LAVACA-DIMMIT-
508 AM CST TUE NOV 3 2015

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL LOWER VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 1/4 MILE IN A
FEW LOCATIONS THROUGH AROUND 9 AM THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...NO
HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

ANOTHER WET WEATHER PATTERN BEGINS WEDNESDAY AND CONTINUES
THROUGH SATURDAY. LOCALLY HEAVY RAINALL IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN HILL
COUNTRY AND ALONG AND EAST OF I-35. DURING THIS PERIOD...THERE IS
ALSO A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SOME OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS TO PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL...DAMAGING WINDS...AND TORNADOES. HOWEVER...THE
PRIMARY WEATHER THREAT FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL BE
FOR FLOODING...AS SOILS WILL BE NEARLY SATURATED FROM PREVIOUS
RAINFALL. THROUGHT THIS WET PERIOD...RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE FORECAST FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WITH ISOLATED HIGHER
TOTALS AROUND 4 INCHES.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED.

$$
it's on its way to being numbered..

India Meteorological Department
5:30 AM IST November 4 2015
===================================

Low level circulation over Lakshadweep and neighborhood area intensified into a vortex and now lays centered near 13.9N 69.3E

Dvorak Intensity: T1.0
Quite sadly Yemen's unique, centuries old, some millenia old MUD architecture will likely be destroyed and lost forever.

In Yemen they built multi-story buildings out of mud bricks. In the desert they were enduring, but a single hurricane could probably dissolve most of it.


The buildings will likely face the same fate as the once impressive ruins at the Siwa Oasis in Egypt once known as the Temple of Amon where Alexander the Great went to check for approval to invade Persia (something like that).

Today all that's left are mud ruins, heaps and spikes of barely recognizable parts of once grand mud architecture centuries old just like Yemen as a result of a once in a 1000 year long rain event.

At this link you'll see lots of incredible, unbelievable mud architecture which is likely in ruins now.

Mud Skyskrapers

Quoting 75. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Looking good for a November Cape Verde Tropical Wave. So what is your thoughts on it, Grothar. Will we see Kate out of this to round out the season at 11 named storms?


We have to squeeze at least one good blob before the end of the season. We are getting some rain tonight finally. Nice thunderstorm and plenty of lightning.

NAVGEM's Lalalalalala Land, but I would love to see that! A good wet TS in november. It wouldn't be a first though.



Quoting 105. Grothar:







That should bring WKC out from hiding.

Last 6 hours, not bad....
Quoting 104. Grothar:






Huh!
Quoting 108. GatorWX:



Huh!

\
Max may have to revise his list.
Final total for Fallon - 1.16 inches of rain official; my gauge a couple miles away showed more like 1.25.

But here's the more important part.



Driving home from an errand today, I saw this. I had to pull over on the side road, because I was crying.

I hope there's more on the way this winter.
Quoting 104. Grothar:




Extrapolating this out in time looks like this ensemble member would want to take it towards the southeast U.S., but I'm noticing looking through most of the operational runs of the global models most of them take it OTS, probably through a break in the ridge across the East Coast of the U.S. and the Subtropical Ridge. That spot may also be favorable for some strengthening due to favorable upper level winds from an upper level ridge settling over top and sea surface temperatures still being warm. At the very least it will at least keep the blog out of trouble and give us all something to track on our end.
Quoting 110. nonblanche:

Final total for Fallon - 1.16 inches of rain official; my gauge a couple miles away showed more like 1.25.

But here's the more important part.



Driving home from an errand today, I saw this. I had to pull over on the side road, because I was crying.

I hope there's more on the way this winter.

I hope so, too. My gage in Truckee measured .55 inches of rain Sunday, followed by .92 inches of melted snow, for a storm total of 1.47 inches. Final snowpack was ~5.5 inches of heavy, wet snow. It looks like more is coming this Sunday/Monday.
Quoting 111. GTstormChaserCaleb:

Extrapolating this out in time looks like this ensemble member would want to take it towards the southeast U.S., but I'm noticing looking through most of the operational runs of the global models most of them take it OTS, probably through a break in the ridge across the East Coast of the U.S. and the Subtropical Ridge. That spot may also be favorable for some strengthening due to favorable upper level winds from an upper level ridge settling over top and sea surface temperatures still being warm. At the very least it will at least keep the blog out of trouble and give us all something to track on our end.


There is a little confusion on my part with some of the models. There is supposed to be a system bringing a lot of rain to the area near Puerto Rico. Also very slight chance of something in the western Caribbean.

WONDERING HOW THIS MAY HAVE AFFECTED THE CONFLICT AREAS. AND LOL. IM READY TO DO THE HOW TO DO A WEATHER STATION INSTALLATION SEGMENT FOR WEATHER UNDERGROUND. GREAT BLOG.


Some areas of San Diego county getting good showers with a Flood Advisory

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
807 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015

CAC073-040700-
/O.NEW.KSGX.FA.Y.0036.151104T0407Z-151104T0700Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN DIEGO CA-
807 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 1100 PM PST

* AT 803 PM PST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 1100 PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... CHULA
VISTA...OCEANSIDE...CARLSBAD...EL CAJON...SAN DIEGO...VISTA...
ENCINITAS...NATIONAL CITY...LA MESA...POWAY AND IMPERIAL BEACH.
Quoting 58. annabatic:


Have you read 'After the Ice; a Global Human History', by Steven Mithen? Mithen tries to imagine how humans experienced the climate as it changed between 20,000 and 5,000 years BC. He created a character that moved around the globe at various critical times of change, and makes short fictional accounts of his experiences, based on archaeological evidence. The archaeological studies are cited extensively. It's sort of long, but interesting to pre-history and climate geeks, I think.
Thanks for the recommendation. I love reading about both paleo-climate and anthropology, so this looks like a winner, and reasonably priced to boot.
I found a positive review by John D. Risetto, Department of Anthropology, University of New Mexico: www.paleoanthro.org/static/journal/content/PA2006 0022.pdf
p.s. Ordered, hardback "like new", 15 bucks total.
117. JRRP
is not over yet
India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST November 4 2015
============================

A well marked low pressure area lies over east central Arabian Sea near 13.9N 68.6E. According to satellite imagery, the intensity is T1.0.

Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over the area between 10.5N to 16.0N and 64.0E to 71.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -75C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with gusts of 30 knots.

The associated convection has increased in past 12 hours with increase in organization and depth. The winds are higher over the northeastern sector. The sea surface temperature around the system center is 29C. The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80k j/cm2 around system center and is less than 50 kj/cm2 over northern parts of west central Arabian Sea adjacent to Oman and Yemen coast. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots (low) around the system center. The low level relative vorticity and convergence have increased during past 12 hours. There is favorable poleward and westward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 16.0N. Most of the numerical weather prediction models are suggesting gradual intensification of the system leading to formation of a depression during next 48 hours. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system. Considering the movement, most of the models are unanimous about initial northwestward and then westward movement.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================
24 HRS: MODERATE
24-48 HRS: HIGH
48-72 HRS: HIGH
Quoting 53. chasSoCal:



try this

Link


Having a look at the Wunderground wiki site was helpful:

see here

;)


Quoting 118. HadesGodWyvern:

India Meteorological Department
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
8:30 AM IST November 4 2015
============================

A well marked low pressure area lies over east central Arabian Sea near 13.9N 68.6E. According to satellite imagery, the intensity is T1.0.

Associated broken low and medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection lies over the area between 10.5N to 16.0N and 64.0E to 71.0E. Minimum cloud top temperature is -75C.

3 minute sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with gusts of 30 knots.

The associated convection has increased in past 12 hours with increase in organization and depth. The winds are higher over the northeastern sector. The sea surface temperature around the system center is 29C. The ocean thermal energy is about 60-80k j/cm2 around system center and is less than 50 kj/cm2 over northern parts of west central Arabian Sea adjacent to Oman and Yemen coast. The vertical wind shear is about 5-10 knots (low) around the system center. The low level relative vorticity and convergence have increased during past 12 hours. There is favorable poleward and westward outflow in association with the anti-cyclonic circulation lying to the northeast of the system center. The upper tropospheric ridge at 200 HPA level runs along 16.0N. Most of the numerical weather prediction models are suggesting gradual intensification of the system leading to formation of a depression during next 48 hours. Dynamical statistical models also suggest the gradual intensification of the system. Considering the movement, most of the models are unanimous about initial northwestward and then westward movement.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
======================
24 HRS: MODERATE
24-48 HRS: HIGH
48-72 HRS: HIGH
Barely any news available concerning current conditions in Yemen today, even for Yemen specialists:

Iona Craig @ionacraig 5 Std. Five hours ago
Not able to reach anyone in Mukalla this morning. Networks down and no electricity post-Chapala.


OCHA Yemen @OCHAYemen
Up to 25cm of rain in 24h in parts of #Hadramaut, #Yemen, following #Chapala storm via @UNOSAT.

Here is the latest summary, partially based on this OCHA report (pdf):

Yemen - Storm Chapala Leaves 3 Dead, 35 Injured and 40,000 Displaced
4 November, 2015 by FloodList News

Interview with Iona Craig (Sanaa/Yemen):
Tropical Cyclone Chapala Batters War-Torn Yemen's Southern Coast
November 03, 2015 4:28 PM ET
I've been reading this blog for over ten years and there's something that really irks me....Why is it that so many members feel a need to repost and repost and repost the same post.....is it that they are so egotistical that they think someone might not see there their genius on display or is it the website's design flaw ????? regardless of the reason it is truly annoying......
nw.carib..bending
Record after Record continues to be broken yet so many still refuse to accept that Climate change is real. Dr. Jeff Masters has been trying to educate the public for many years now, though the propaganda artists are hard at work to keep people in denial. Absolutely mind bending!
Quoting 26. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


UGH!
Quoting 129. Steve536:

Record after Record continues to be broken yet so many still refuse to accept that Climate change is real. Dr. Jeff Masters has been trying to educate the public for many years now, though the propaganda artists are hard at work to keep people in denial. Absolutely mind bending!


Climate change is real. The extent to how much is manmade is disputed.
Quoting 129. Steve536:

Record after Record continues to be broken yet so many still refuse to accept that Climate change is real. Dr. Jeff Masters has been trying to educate the public for many years now, though the propaganda artists are hard at work to keep people in denial. Absolutely mind bending!
Nobody is saying climate change isn't real, the climate has been changing for billions of years and will continue to change until the end of the Earth as we know it. Now for man being the main reason for temp change, that is another story for another day.
Quoting 130. Loduck:

UGH! Hi Loduck, I love all this warm weather, it's nice sitting outside in the early evening, having a nice barbecue and sipping a cold one. Could be a lot worse, like shoveling snow, or raking leaves.
Quoting 115. HurricaneHunterJoe:



Some areas of San Diego county getting good showers with a Flood Advisory

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN DIEGO CA
807 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015

CAC073-040700-
/O.NEW.KSGX.FA.Y.0036.151104T0407Z-151104T0700Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
SAN DIEGO CA-
807 PM PST TUE NOV 3 2015

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN DIEGO HAS ISSUED A

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY FOR...
SOUTHWESTERN SAN DIEGO COUNTY IN SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA...

* UNTIL 1100 PM PST

* AT 803 PM PST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED HEAVY RAIN DUE TO MULTIPLE
THUNDERSTORMS. THIS WILL CAUSE URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOODING IN
THE ADVISORY AREA. ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP AND MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH AT LEAST 1100 PM.

* SOME LOCATIONS THAT WILL EXPERIENCE FLOODING INCLUDE... CHULA
VISTA...OCEANSIDE...CARLSBAD...EL CAJON...SAN DIEGO...VISTA...
ENCINITAS...NATIONAL CITY...LA MESA...POWAY AND IMPERIAL BEACH.


Received 1.37 over the past 12 hours in central SD. The official site got over an inch. This was accompanied by an incredible display (for us) of lighting.
Quoting 131. Emancipator:



Climate change is real. The extent to how much is manmade is disputed.


Not really, that is a misnomer:


The studies are Tett et al. 2000 (T00, dark blue), Meehl et al. 2004 (M04, red), Stone et al. 2007 (S07, green), Lean and Rind 2008 (LR08, purple), Huber and Knutti 2011 (HK11, light blue), Gillett et al. 2012 (G12, orange), and Jones et al. 2013 (J13, pink). The numbers in this summary are best estimates from each study; uncertainty ranges can be found in the original research.

Good Morning. The current look for the wave in the Caribbean, the area in the Central Atlantic, and shear levels: at best, the folks in the Caribbean can always use the rain this time of the year so I hope that the Atlantic area keeps moving West to bring them some. Shear has also picked up in the Gulf so development of the Caribbean wave is highly unlikely:





Quoting 131. Emancipator:



Climate change is real. The extent to how much is manmade is disputed.

Yes, it's somewhere between 80% to over 100%, depending on how one measures.

EDIT: Subtracted graph already posted by Naga. Good work, Naga!
This El-Nino is really beginning to ramp up even more with values rapidly climbing even in Nino 1&2. Reason for this recent uptick was a response to very strong westerly wind anomalies throughout October across most of the ENSO regions. Usually after such strong WWB there is a lag of 2 to 3 weeks before warming occurs. Lets just say JB likely won't be happy with all these recent upticks and references to the 2002/2009 El-Nino.

tropical wave moving through the nw carib. pop up showers and some bending to the clouds. even had a welcomed morning shower up here in e cen florida
Quoting 138. StormTrackerScott:

This El-Nino is really beginning to ramp up even more with values rapidly climbing even in Nino 1&2. Reason for this recent uptick was a response to very strong westerly wind anomalies throughout October across most of the ENSO regions. Usually after such strong WWB there is a lag of 2 to 3 weeks before warming occurs. Lets just say JB likely won't be happy with all these recent upticks and references to the 2002/2009 El-Nino.


What is your prediction for Florida and the east coast.?
Quoting 132. NativeSun:

Nobody is saying climate change isn't real...
Well, some are, but they're ignorant and thus easily ignored.
Quoting 132. NativeSun:

Now for man being the main reason for temp change, that is another story for another day.
See comments #135 and #137. Thanks!
Quoting 137. Misanthroptimist:


Yes, it's somewhere between 80% to over 100%, depending on how one measures.

EDIT: Subtracted graph already posted by Naga. Good work, Naga!


I'm quick this morning. See what a good night's sleep can get you?
Quoting 138. StormTrackerScott:

This El-Nino is really beginning to ramp up even more with values rapidly climbing even in Nino 1&2. Reason for this recent uptick was a response to very strong westerly wind anomalies throughout October across most of the ENSO regions. Usually after such strong WWB there is a lag of 2 to 3 weeks before warming occurs. Lets just say JB likely won't be happy with all these recent upticks and references to the 2002/2009 El-Nino.




Yeah, Nino 1+2 is back on the way up. This El Nino, so far, shows no signs of weakening.
It's looking likely that the CPC may raise the values in Nino 3.4 to 2.8C or 2.9C next week and if this occurs this would tie or break the All-Time weekly value ever reached in Nino 3.4. Very impressive El-Nino!

Does not look from the loops that the Central Atlantic area is going West anytime soon; getting sucked back towards Africa so the Lesser Antilles are out of luck in terms of rain. And Cuba is getting the most rain out of the NW Caribbean area: I think is went well South of PR and Hispanola so they did not get a lot of rain from it either.


2016 atlantics hyper hurricane season? good luck all. its right around the corner.
Quoting 133. NativeSun:

Yea you're probably right, but late September and early October were very, very nice! What will probably happen is that now it will go from 90 to 40 overnight! We have been cheated out of fall :(
Quoting 135. Naga5000:



Not really, that is a misnomer:


The studies are Tett et al. 2000 (T00, dark blue), Meehl et al. 2004 (M04, red), Stone et al. 2007 (S07, green), Lean and Rind 2008 (LR08, purple), Huber and Knutti 2011 (HK11, light blue), Gillett et al. 2012 (G12, orange), and Jones et al. 2013 (J13, pink). The numbers in this summary are best estimates from each study; uncertainty ranges can be found in the original research.


And to think some people still say humans have had no effect on the Earths climate..That adds up quick...and will continue for a while i,m afraid....
Quoting 143. tampabaymatt:



Yeah, Nino 1+2 is back on the way up. This El Nino, so far, shows no signs of weakening.



The strengthening ongoing right now is in response to very strong Westerly Wind anomalies which lasted all October. So now that those wind anomalies have relaxed we are beginning to see those effects. Also CFSv2 is showing another peak in this El-Nino in either March or April which to me is very interesting and is implying this is going to be a long drawn out event.
And the current pattern for the US and jet location: high and dry in most of the Eastern Conus:




Quoting 131. Emancipator:



Climate change is real. The extent to how much is manmade is disputed.

It is disputed only by those unwilling to let science get in the way of ideology.
sea ice growing in the s. hemisphere todays nasa's released statement. funny scientist last yr were saying that region was doomed. honestly i dont know what to believe.
Very early models not very reliable at this time.

Appears to be going in the direction of Somalia, which doesn't even have a functioning central government.

Quoting 140. hydrus:

What is your prediction for Florida and the east coast.?


Waiting for this ridge to pop across Canada so the jet can come underneath. GFS keeps showing this happening in the medium to long range so well see. I do expect things to trend cooler in the next week or 2 though and could turn cold and stormy either December or January.
Quoting 148. hydrus:

And to think some people still say humans have had no effect on the Earths climate..That adds up quick...and will continue for a while i,m afraid....
Looks like those reperesent studies that focus from the year 1750 forward. Anyone have knowledge of studies about changes in Earth's climate that look back further than 1750- 15,000 years at least - and build in the human effect?
Now don't laugh!!!!!!!!!!!


Quoting 155. Grothar:


Greetings Gro. Did you know Somalia had some damage from Chapala.?..Its sounds bad there...I should mention that Socotra would get hit again, and damage is really bad on that island.
I thought that one of the reasons that tc's form was to cool down super heated ocean waters so with all of the record breaking systems in the eastern and central pacific why are the temps still so high? And, theoretically could these temps be even higher without all the systems that formed this year?
Quoting 81. HurricaneHunterJoe:

Looks like a reinforcing shot of warm water to keep that red color going. The dark red color is like 6,000 miles long.


Quoting 152. islander101010:

sea ice growing in the s. hemisphere todays nasa's released statement. funny scientist last yr were saying that region was doomed. honestly i dont know what to believe.

Yes, that would be a bit hard if, for instance, 'sea ice' and 'land ice' would be thought of as the exact same thing.
Or if a broken sequence of five years of some snowfall somewhere would take precedence over CryoSat and GRACE observations of the bulk of the ice.
Well, there's a tiny upward tick in sea ice there (would happen over the North Atlantic too but there's just a cold spot thanks to Greenland melt and crashing AMOC).
The Antarctic land ice loses 100 (GRACE) to 130 (CryoSat) Gt/year on balance.
And the WAIS is unstable. If doom, then from there.
Quoting 158. Grothar:

Now don't laugh!!!!!!!!!!!



The Alien movie from 79.?...:)
Quoting 160. Loduck:

I thought that one of the reasons that tc's form was to cool down super heated ocean waters so with all of the record breaking systems in the eastern and central pacific why are the temps still so high? And, theoretically could these temps be even higher without all the systems that formed this year?

Scale. TC's are impressive to see, but radiation - not seen - is the far greater factor in the balance.
"And, theoretically could these temps be even higher without all the systems that formed this year?" - immeasurably.
Quoting 157. Barefootontherocks:

Looks like those reperesent studies that focus from the year 1750 forward. Anyone have knowledge of studies about changes in Earth's climate that look back further than 1750- 15,000 years at least - and build in the human effect?
Very hard to prove what humans did before 1750, but I would bet there were minor influences..Nothing like what is happening today.
Quoting 152. islander101010:

sea ice growing in the s. hemisphere todays nasa's released statement. funny scientist last yr were saying that region was doomed. honestly i dont know what to believe.

The region is still doomed. Understanding that, though, depends upon knowing the difference between sea ice and land ice and why that difference is important.
Quoting 131. Emancipator:



Climate change is real. The extent to how much is manmade is disputed.


CO2 is increasing to levels not seen for the past 800,000 years and most of the increase from a multiple tens of millenia baseline has happened in the past 100 years. The increase continues. Fast. The physics is occurring about as expected, downward IR from the CO2 is increasing adding a few watts/m2 to total incoming radiation and causing the surface to come into a new radiative balance. C02 is increasing because of deforestation, fossil fuel burning and land clearing which reduces carbon in the soil. The second is probably the dominant term on where it's coming from. We put it there. We are seeing the expected consequences. Much of it is due to our species and the A in AGW applies.
Quoting 152. islander101010:

sea ice growing in the s. hemisphere todays nasa's released statement. funny scientist last yr were saying that region was doomed. honestly i dont know what to believe.

Seems to me, if I remember correctly, that the reason more ice is showing is that warmer currents underneath are melting the ice, so fresh water comes to the surface. Fresh water freezes quicker than salt water, so more ice is showing. The ice pack is broader, but more shallow because of the warmer water underneath. One explanation I have read. Not a scientist, so I am not sure if it's a practical explanation or not, but seems to make sense.
168. MahFL
Quoting 164. hydrus:

Very hard to prove what humans did before 1750, but I would bet there were minor influences..Nothing like what is happening today.


In 1750 the worlds population was less than 1 billion, now we are at what 7 billion ?, so in 250 years we increased our population 7 or 8 times, and invented the internal combustion engine.
Long way out, but I do believe this is what is coming the second half of November. The are signs that mid latitude ridging will help start the troposphere/stratosphere energy transfer, but not before a possible Arctic outbreak in the Western U.S..

We have gone past the "tipping point" in terms of the current global warming phase IMHO. At this point, our efforts are going to have be focused on mitigation and adjustment. It's not the end of the world and we are just going to have to adjust. The biggest challenge over the next several decades is going to be dealing with migration patterns (human refuge traffic as the result of drought and/or flooding issues), coastal city/village re-positioning due to sea level rise (and all of the impacts that this entails including salt water intrusion into coastal fresh water aquifers), and the big tamale; how climate change impacts fresh water (with 80% of the world depending on snow pack for water).

Leaving the points related to agriculture production and livestock mantenance for another day........Our hands are full.
Quoting 130. Loduck:

UGH!

Leme tell you, ITS HORRIBLE, I'm in merit island, feels like 96.

UGGGGGGGHHHHHHHHH!
Quoting 168. MahFL:



In 1750 the worlds population was less than 1 billion, now we are at what 7 billion ?, so in 250 years we increased our population 7 or 8 times, and invented the internal combustion engine.
Good morning Mah..We have covered this. The Industrial Age did help the human race achieve great accomplishments due to fossil fuels and the engines they provided for. It is time to move on. We upgrade our computers, appliances, cars, trucks, and other gadgets. Now we search for cleaner , more efficient alternatives for energy..It will happen.
It is nice to see a tropical wave with actual convection passing through the Western Caribbean I have been hearing it has been dry in that region. Maybe, a slight chance for something to form in the BOC.

TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
705 AM EST WED NOV 04 2015

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1115 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

AN ATLANTIC OCEAN-TO-CARIBBEAN SEA TROPICAL WAVE PASSES BY THE
SOUTHEASTERN BAHAMAS NEAR 21N70W...ACROSS HAITI...INTO THE
CARIBBEAN SEA NEAR 17N73W...TO 12N74W. THE WAVE IS MOVING
WESTWARD 15 KNOTS. CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE TO ISOLATED STRONG FROM 16N NORTHWARD TO SOUTHEASTERN
CUBA THROUGH THE WINDWARD PASSAGE...IN THE WATERS THAT ARE
BETWEEN HAITI...JAMAICA...AND CUBA...AND FROM 12N TO 13N BETWEEN
73W AND 75W. ISOLATED MODERATE ELSEWHERE FROM COLOMBIA AND
VENEZUELA TO HISPANIOLA BETWEEN 67W AND 80W.

Quoting 160. Loduck:

I thought that one of the reasons that tc's form was to cool down super heated ocean waters so with all of the record breaking systems in the eastern and central pacific why are the temps still so high? And, theoretically could these temps be even higher without all the systems that formed this year?


This a misconception that a lot of people have. TCs have no purpose, they don't form to redistribute thermal energy, it's impossible for an inanimate object to have a purpose. When the right conditions occur, they form. No different than rain, or wind, or even condensation. Now the question, do they balance atmospheric heat energy as a side effect of their formation? I have not seen any evidence that would indicate that they do with any kind of measurable magnitude. Even when you have a strong cyclone that leaves a substantial cold wake, it usually disappears within a week or two, and I've never seen any data that shows an atmospheric "heat wake" left behind by a cyclone which you would expect if it was transferring heat energy poleward.
Quoting 164. hydrus:

Very hard to prove what humans did before 1750, but I would bet there were minor influences..Nothing like what is happening today.


The anthropogenic impact of humans pre-burning of fossil fuels would be very tiny. Some land use change, but most of the climate forcings would be natural (i.e. the sun, orbital variation, volcanic eruptions, etc.) And we can see that pretty well in the paleoclimate reconstructions with nothing resembling the current warming:


The temperature reconstruction of Shakun et al (green – shifted manually by 0.25 degrees), of Marcott et al (blue), combined with the instrumental period data from HadCRUT4 (red) and the model average of IPCC projections for the A1B scenario up to 2100 (orange).
Quoting 167. islander44:


Seems to me, if I remember correctly, that the reason more ice is showing is that warmer currents underneath are melting the ice, so fresh water comes to the surface. Fresh water freezes quicker than salt water, so more ice is showing. The ice pack is broader, but more shallow because of the warmer water underneath. One explanation I have read. Not a scientist, so I am not sure if it's a practical explanation or not, but seems to make sense.


Pretty good explanation of increasing sea ice down there. :)
Quoting 164. hydrus:

Very hard to prove what humans did before 1750, but I would bet there were minor influences..Nothing like what is happening today.
Thanks hydrus. I was thinking more along the lines something that would show blending of human influence and natural occurrences going back much further than that. I know certain parts of N. America, including my beloved Puget Sound, were ice covered 15,000 years ago. I'd like to see the disappearance of that ice blended with what's going on now.
Quoting 163. cRRKampen:


Scale. TC's are impressive to see, but radiation - not seen - is the far greater factor in the balance.
"And, theoretically could these temps be even higher without all the systems that formed this year?" - immeasurably.
Thanks. I'm also wondering that since there was so little activity in the tropical atlantic will that mean that next year could be a beast since not much happened to cool down any above average heat?
Quoting 131. Emancipator:


Climate change is real. The extent to how much is manmade is disputed.

True, but it's likely more than 100% according to one of Dr. Masters top recommended sources for AGW/CC info.

From SkepticalScience:



"Most studies showed that recent natural contributions have been in the cooling direction, thereby masking part of the human contribution and in some cases causing it to exceed 100% of the total warming. The two largest human influences are greenhouse gas (GHG) and sulfur dioxide (SO2) emissions, mostly from burning coal, oil, and natural gas..."
Quoting 147. Loduck:

Yea you're probably right, but late September and early October were very, very nice! What will probably happen is that now it will go from 90 to 40 overnight! We have been cheated out of fall :(


Although heat persisted late into September and shortened my optimal cool season crop growth period, we've had a very pleasant fall overall in the middle atlantic. Fall is usually a pleasant season here though. Departures from normal early Nov. temps are not as high as further west so far and we've had warmer early November stretches in past years.
Quoting 174. pipelines:



This a misconception that a lot of people have. TCs have no purpose, they don't form to redistribute thermal energy, it's impossible for an inanimate object to have a purpose. When the right conditions occur, they form. No different than rain, or wind, or even condensation. Now the question, do they balance atmospheric heat energy as a side effect of their formation? I have not seen any evidence that would indicate that they do with any kind of measurable magnitude. Even when you have a strong cyclone that leaves a substantial cold wake, it usually disappears within a week or two, and I've never seen any data that shows an atmospheric "heat wake" left behind by a cyclone which you would expect if it was transferring heat energy poleward.
Hello P.L. I disagree. Tropical cyclones do take heat from the oceans and release it into the atmosphere. Eventually some of the energy and moisture ends up north of the development region.
Quoting 130. Loduck:

UGH!²
Quoting 178. Loduck:

Thanks. I'm also wondering that since there was so little activity in the tropical atlantic will that mean that next year could be a beast since not much happened to cool down any above average heat?


Due to a likely cessation of El Nino, yes. However Tropical Cyclones are actually a minor term in the total heat transfer from equator to pole, caused by the general circulation of the atmosphere.
Quoting 138. StormTrackerScott:

This El-Nino is really beginning to ramp up even more with values rapidly climbing even in Nino 1&2. Reason for this recent uptick was a response to very strong westerly wind anomalies throughout October across most of the ENSO regions. Usually after such strong WWB there is a lag of 2 to 3 weeks before warming occurs. Lets just say JB likely won't be happy with all these recent upticks and references to the 2002/2009 El-Nino.



When you look at the Central to Eastern Pacific Basin it is WAY above normal SSTs. The 97-98 El Nino Event had no where near the depth and coverage of the warmth than this Set up now. I am thinking the teleconnections in play here are a Very Strong El Nino and Positive or + Pacific Oscillation and a Negative or Cold NAO. The 97-98 El Nino had a Positive NAO with a much colder Pacific not including the NINO regions 1+2, 3+4. I am thinking Severe WX Southeast U.S. and Above average snow in Mid-Atlantic to Southern New England. I think Central CA up to Washington State above normal precip and below normal Temps. Just a hypothesis
Quoting 181. hydrus:

Hello P.L. I disagree. Tropical cyclones do take heat from the oceans and release it into the atmosphere. Eventually some of the energy and moisture ends up north of the development region.

Most simply goes up into space (in fact, absolutely all of it ends up there, but in the case of TC's I mean most is radiated out above or almost above the system).
Quoting 178. Loduck:

Thanks. I'm also wondering that since there was so little activity in the tropical atlantic will that mean that next year could be a beast since not much happened to cool down any above average heat?

Well, I'd say depends on shear.
Quoting 150. weathermanwannabe:

And the current pattern for the US and jet location: high and dry in most of the Eastern Conus:

[...]



Looks like a little bit of moisture is heading towards us for the rains this weekend.

Quoting 185. cRRKampen:


Most simply goes up into space (in fact, absolutely all of it ends up there, but in the case of TC's I mean most is radiated out above or almost above the system).
Your saying that all the energy released from a tropical cyclone ends up in space..Do you have a diagram or a link to such info.?..If all that energy ends up in space, why do places like Ireland and Britain end up getting whacked with record high temps and heavy wind and rain from such systems.? Winds from former hurricanes hit Britain and Ireland in 2009, three times in 2006, twice in 2000 and once each in 1996 and 1998, according to the Met Office, Britain's official weather agency.

Excerpt from LiveScience..

In 2009, Hurricane Bill crossed the Atlantic and hit the UK as a post-tropical storm. The leftovers of hurricanes Alberto, Gordon and Helene all hit the UK in 2006. Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie hit the British Isles as post-tropical storms in 2000. In 1998, southern Britain was hit by the remnants of Hurricane Karl.
Quoting 188. hydrus:

Your saying that all the energy released from a tropical cyclone ends up in space..Do you have a diagram or a link to such info.?..If all that energy ends up in space, why do places like Ireland and Britain end up getting whacked with record high temps and heavy wind and rain from such systems.? Winds from former hurricanes hit Britain and Ireland in 2009, three times in 2006, twice in 2000 and once each in 1996 and 1998, according to the Met Office, Britain's official weather agency.

Excerpt from LiveScience..

In 2009, Hurricane Bill crossed the Atlantic and hit the UK as a post-tropical storm. The leftovers of hurricanes Alberto, Gordon and Helene all hit the UK in 2006. Hurricanes Isaac and Leslie hit the British Isles as post-tropical storms in 2000. In 1998, southern Britain was hit by the remnants of Hurricane Karl.

Scale. I said 'most' goes up over or near the TC. Some gets dissipated more horizontally but in the end it goes to space, be it over Ireland or the Arctic.
Living in Holland I am of course quite aware of TC remnant systems.

True, a little more solar than before gets retained in the climate system (atmosphere, cryosphere, oceans). This is why we see all those hot records and ever less cold ones.
190. vis0

Quoting 127. toddbizz:

I've been reading this blog for over ten years and there's something that really irks me....Why is it that so many members feel a need to repost and repost and repost the same post.....is it that they are so egotistical that they think someone might not see there their genius on display or is it the website's design flaw ????? regardless of the reason it is truly annoying......
Shrt Rply:: yes, yes, at times, maybe, its a blog, accidents, its mostly me.

looong reply:: Everything has to have AT FIRST there are 2 choices, then broken down into more.

So of the two first choices as to Yes or No the reply is Yes there is re-posting. Lets break that down further.

- Some might be as to the ego.

- Some is where one might post the same words or parts of the similar comment onto other comments so some readers focus on the same , lets say 10 words but there are 30 previously unused words in that comment but the reader for whatever reason focuses on the 10 reused words.

Example:: A) There are 'now' over 400ppm 'of' co2 'being' read 'through' devices 'that' have been reading co2 build up for over 50 yrs.

B) Its amazing how such rapid co2 build up, 'now' higher than 400ppm is 'being' considered a natural build up when 'through' Earth's history such a build up in 50 yrs or so has never 'been' witnessed in any fossils, archaeological reading or any sort 'of' element 'that' captures co2 and can be read millions 'of ' years later with solid respected technology.

Some might think this is repeating the same thing, but if one picks out the similar words (in bold) one sees they are similar in opinion but one has new information.

- It could be that some members are in agreement as to a subject and include some of the recently used words in a new comment, like:

If there are 20 people that saw a car accident, you'll get 20 different opinions as to what each person thinks but there are similar words in each of the 20 comments "as", "to fast", "DWuI", "texting", "drunk", "loud bang", "sounded like a bomb (went off)", "glad its not me". Officers have to be patient and listen to all and put together similarities and match it to scientific measurements per car model to try and piece together what actually happened. So on a blog people post parts of what they read elsewhere from different news sources as Bloomberg, Fox, BBC, WNB (world Ninja Barbamz), SyncdObs (Pablo), BBN(Brian), TMZ, MUS and more now than years (40+) ago these news sources for whatever reason(s) copy MOST,not just the top 3 news headlines from one outlet, instead of getting there own news story(ies).

- It seems that recently (last 3-4 yrs) that certain trolls will re-re-repeat something on these WxU blogs & blogs dealing with the science of observing the planets atmospheric changes, as to derail scientific studies. Be the trolls text made up to rove their point of view or even with at times real studies EVEN THOUGH THOSE STUDIES HAVE been proven to be either honest errors by the original texts writer or observations that with newer knowledge or instruments to understand more completely, natures behavior therefore those older reading have been updated and show something that is not good for human development be it brain or physically is going on. Finally trolling with down right manufactured words to read as facts or tampered with real facts or omitting portions of certain legitimate reports to fit the trolls needs.
So, just reposting the same thing but via a different troll username or style of words, concerned WxU members or good citizens come on and post comments to correct those purposely posted incorrect studies, and if a blog is trolled 20 times then one that prefers the facts should expect AT LEAST 20 comments countering that trolling, be it a long reply or by immediately posting a link to a WxU blog that has collected either fabricated stories or incorrectly used science findings of yesteryear's long gone by. By WxU creating a blog just to rebut those stories...

(BaltBrains fantastic blog is too full of information so a person would have to dig to find a counter reply. Same with certain large blogs dealing with facts, those good informative blogs have their audience.)

...the type of blog i'm texting of has to be for the i'm-in-a-hurry-audience-cause-my-fav-show-starts-i n-10mins- person, so a WxU blog where the false story is shown in a B&W PNG pop up (remove the colour and the pho-science pages links from the trolled linked pg so pop ups load immediately) on which concerned member send the correct info/links they found on the Internet and pass it to WxU editors. Editors post a quick tweet-like explanation and those links that scientifically disprove trolled comments. No comments on that blog so the linked pages DIRECTLY reply to the specific trolled subject. The benefit is ::

1) Weatherunderground takes the punch away from sources that are trying to use made up things to influence the public, 'cause every time a troll post the same thing a WxU citizen posts the already created rebuttal link on the Troll rebuttal page allowing more people to get real science by just simply clicking the link posted right after the troll post.

2) Since weatherunderground can post ADs on their rebuttal troll pgs WxU will get more funds for them instead of people going Just to the trolls pgs, Troll cannot make more money as if they rebut their created facts it would then be with real facts and since there is not MUCH new info coming as to co2 is not real compared to co2 build up is real then as time goes by more of the public will go to WxU pages cause it new news not same old articles re-re-repaeted.

And yes for those that read my blog this idea i posted ~2011 but i still don not see any site like it, i see large blogs with good full explanations but we need a quick "Science in B&W" page for people that think todays game is more important than saving humanity... vis0 sez:: "theres a game tonite where!!!"

Then there are ~8 billion other reasons (including infants, infants they don't text???. "Oahhhh gugu gaga - fthrpsssstt" or i human words "oh contraire" as i see more and more infants not with pacifiers in their mouth but iPhones in their mouth (those cell phones don't use toxins in their plastic or painted skin? ....i hope not at toxic levels... so "stop teething & texting", maybe iPhone can create via playskool® a safe teething iPhone pacifiers, why you'll get kids to recognize the iPad Apple subconsciously and instead of Apples' Siri, its Elmo with "stroller GPS" automated voice sez::...turn left (HEHEHEHEE) Toys-Я-Us® 2 miles to the SW....quick get home (HEHEHJEHEEE) Sezme street is on (see a sezme st. clip here can't find other 3 clips URLs oh well)


- Could be "TraLaLaing" (just made up that "werd"...werd: a just made up word) Tralalaing???, i call amiture trolls, that think they have nothing better to do so instead of going outside and enjoying co2s under 450ppm and learning from nature of human behavior or just moving around prefer to feel important by joining that days "troll training" as to bombarding blogs as to one subject. Its a video game mentality.

- Finally my apology its just me and the ml-d, ya know when ya think ya made a technological breakthroughs in the 1970s i guess i thought it might have deserved some attention, NOT for me but for humanity sake, but then again i could be was 99.9% wrong.

(what! its Friday already :- P), Back to learning by observing nature

Quoting 174. pipelines:



This a misconception that a lot of people have. TCs have no purpose, they don't form to redistribute thermal energy, it's impossible for an inanimate object to have a purpose. When the right conditions occur, they form. No different than rain, or wind, or even condensation. Now the question, do they balance atmospheric heat energy as a side effect of their formation? I have not seen any evidence that would indicate that they do with any kind of measurable magnitude. Even when you have a strong cyclone that leaves a substantial cold wake, it usually disappears within a week or two, and I've never seen any data that shows an atmospheric "heat wake" left behind by a cyclone which you would expect if it was transferring heat energy poleward.
Thanks. I don't know whether to believe you or disagree with you. If inanimate objects have no purpose then, if I may extrapolate, the delicate balance that is life on this planet just happened because conditions were right. I think everything has a purpose and just because there is no data to support a particular theory doesn't mean that it's not true. Maybe it just hasn't been proven yet...
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 191. Loduck:


Law of large numbers and some thermodynamical rules. There is no purpose. That things self-organize exactly because there is no purpose (Law of large numbers expresses it) is in fact the wonder.

Quoting 153. Grothar:

Very early models not very reliable at this time.

Appears to be going in the direction of Somalia, which doesn't even have a functioning central government.


Some would say that about U.S.   - Hey-O
This cold front Friday should put an end to the leaves in Cent Ind.  I'm tired of raking!
This is the !?&$! funniest post that I have ever read on this blog:)))))
Quoting 190. vis0:


Shrt Rply:: yes, yes, at times, maybe, its a blog, accidents, its mostly me.

looong reply:: Everything has to have AT FIRST there are 2 choices, then broken down into more.

So of the two first choices as to Yes or No the reply is Yes there is re-posting. Lets break that down further.

- Some might be as to the ego.

- Some is where one might post the same words or parts of the similar comment onto other comments so some readers focus on the same , lets say 10 words but there are 30 previously unused words in that comment but the reader for whatever reason focuses on the 10 reused words.

Example:: A) There are 'now' over 400ppm 'of' co2 'being' read 'through' devices 'that' have been reading co2 build up for over 50 yrs.

B) Its amazing how such rapid co2 build up, 'now' higher than 400ppm is 'being' considered a natural build up when 'through' Earth's history such a build up in 50 yrs or so has never 'been' witnessed in any fossils, archaeological reading or any sort 'of' element 'that' captures co2 and can be read millions 'of ' years later with solid respected technology.

Some might think this is repeating the same thing, but if one picks out the similar words (in bold) one sees they are similar in opinion but one has new information.

- It could be that some members are in agreement as to a subject and include some of the recently used words in a new comment, like:

If there are 20 people that saw a car accident, you'll get 20 different opinions as to what each person thinks but there are similar words in each of the 20 comments "as", "to fast", "DWuI", "texting", "drunk", "loud bang", "sounded like a bomb (went off)", "glad its not me". Officers have to be patient and listen to all and put together similarities and match it to scientific measurements per car model to try and piece together what actually happened. So on a blog people post parts of what they read elsewhere from different news sources as Bloomberg, Fox, BBC, WNB (world Ninja Barbamz), SyncdObs (Pablo), BBN(Brian), TMZ, MUS and more now than years (40+) ago these news sources for whatever reason(s) copy MOST,not just the top 3 news headlines from one outlet, instead of getting there own news story(ies).

- It seems that recently (last 3-4 yrs) that certain trolls will re-re-repeat something on these WxU blogs & blogs dealing with the science of observing the planets atmospheric changes, as to derail scientific studies. Be the trolls text made up to rove their point of view or even with at times real studies EVEN THOUGH THOSE STUDIES HAVE been proven to be either honest errors by the original texts writer or observations that with newer knowledge or instruments to understand more completely, natures behavior therefore those older reading have been updated and show something that is not good for human development be it brain or physically is going on. Finally trolling with down right manufactured words to read as facts or tampered with real facts or omitting portions of certain legitimate reports to fit the trolls needs.
So, just reposting the same thing but via a different troll username or style of words, concerned WxU members or good citizens come on and post comments to correct those purposely posted incorrect studies, and if a blog is trolled 20 times then one that prefers the facts should expect AT LEAST 20 comments countering that trolling, be it a long reply or by immediately posting a link to a WxU blog that has collected either fabricated stories or incorrectly used science findings of yesteryear's long gone by. By WxU creating a blog just to rebut those stories...

(BaltBrains fantastic blog is too full of information so a person would have to dig to find a counter reply. Same with certain large blogs dealing with facts, those good informative blogs have their audience.)

...the type of blog i'm texting of has to be for the i'm-in-a-hurry-audience-cause-my-fav-show-starts-i n-10mins- person, so a WxU blog where the false story is shown in a B&W PNG pop up (remove the colour and the pho-science pages links from the trolled linked pg so pop ups load immediately) on which concerned member send the correct info/links they found on the Internet and pass it to WxU editors. Editors post a quick tweet-like explanation and those links that scientifically disprove trolled comments. No comments on that blog so the linked pages DIRECTLY reply to the specific trolled subject. The benefit is ::

1) Weatherunderground takes the punch away from sources that are trying to use made up things to influence the public, 'cause every time a troll post the same thing a WxU citizen posts the already created rebuttal link on the Troll rebuttal page allowing more people to get real science by just simply clicking the link posted right after the troll post.

2) Since weatherunderground can post ADs on their rebuttal troll pgs WxU will get more funds for them instead of people going Just to the trolls pgs, Troll cannot make more money as if they rebut their created facts it would then be with real facts and since there is not MUCH new info coming as to co2 is not real compared to co2 build up is real then as time goes by more of the public will go to WxU pages cause it new news not same old articles re-re-repaeted.

And yes for those that read my blog this idea i posted ~2011 but i still don not see any site like it, i see large blogs with good full explanations but we need a quick "Science in B&W" page for people that think todays game is more important than saving humanity... vis0 sez:: "theres a game tonite where!!!"

Then there are ~8 billion other reasons (including infants, infants they don't text???. "Oahhhh gugu gaga - fthrpsssstt" or i human words "oh contraire" as i see more and more infants not with pacifiers in their mouth but iPhones in their mouth (those cell phones don't use toxins in their plastic or painted skin? ....i hope not at toxic levels... so "stop teething & texting", maybe iPhone can create via playskool® a safe teething iPhone pacifiers, why you'll get kids to recognize the iPad Apple subconsciously and instead of Apples' Siri, its Elmo with "stroller GPS" automated voice sez::...turn left (HEHEHEHEE) Toys-Я-Us® 2 miles to the SW....quick get home (HEHEHJEHEEE) Sezme street is on (see a sezme st. clip here can't find other 3 clips URLs oh well)


- Could be "TraLaLaing" (just made up that "werd"...werd: a just made up word) Tralalaing???, i call amiture trolls, that think they have nothing better to do so instead of going outside and enjoying co2s under 450ppm and learning from nature of human behavior or just moving around prefer to feel important by joining that days "troll training" as to bombarding blogs as to one subject. Its a video game mentality.

- Finally my apology its just me and the ml-d, ya know when ya think ya made a technological breakthroughs in the 1970s i guess i thought it might have deserved some attention, NOT for me but for humanity sake, but then again i could be was 99.9% wrong.

(what! its Friday already :- P), Back to learning by observing nature


197. JRRP
Quoting 158. Grothar:

Now don't laugh!!!!!!!!!!!




jajajajajajajajajajajajajajaja
I'm intrigued that you can get a metar out of Riyan, OYAR, could you please tell me where it comes from? I come up with no reports at all.