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Chantal Dissipates; its Remains Bringing Heavy Rains to the Bahamas

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:28 PM GMT on July 11, 2013

The remains of Tropical Storm Chantal are bringing heavy rains and gusty winds to the Southeast Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Islands today, after the storm dissipated on Wednesday approaching Haiti. Chantal brought heavy rains to Haiti and the Dominican Republic on Wednesday, with satellite estimates of 4 - 8 inches of rainfall in Central Haiti and the central and south coastal Dominican Republic. One drowning death in the Dominican Republic is being blamed on the storm.


Figure 1. Predicted precipitation for the 7-day period ending Thursday, July 18, 2013. Chantal's remains are expected to bring 2 - 3" of rain to the Southeast U.S., which will not be great enough to cause major flooding issues. Image credit: NOAA/HPC.

Forecast for Chantal's remains
The remains of Chantal will spread into the Northwest Bahamas on Friday, and to the Southeast U.S. on Saturday and Sunday. High wind shear of 20 - 30 knots combined with dry air will make re-development of the storm unlikely through Friday. On Saturday, the wind shear over Chantal's remains will fall to the moderate range, but the storm will likely not have enough time over water to redevelop. In their 8 am EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave Chantal's remains a 20% chance of development into a tropical depression or tropical storm by Saturday. None of the reliable computer models are predicting development of Chantal's remains, or of anything else in the Atlantic over the next seven days.


Figure 2. MODIS image of Typhoon Soulik taken at 04:20 UTC July 11, 2013. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Soulik a threat to Taiwan and China
Typhoon Soulik, a Category 2 storm with 110 mph winds in the Western Pacific, is expected to hit the northern end of Taiwan on Friday as a Category 3 storm. Soulik will then make landfall in China near Fuzhou on Saturday, most likely as a Category 2 typhoon. Soulik became the most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 on Wednesday, when it peaked at Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds.

Jeff Masters
Sunset before Chantal
Sunset before Chantal
Taken with my cell phone at Rainbow Beach 36 hours before Tropical Storm Chantal is expected to brush the island of st croix to the south. Very excited as this will be our first TS .....

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting 1484. scott39:
Right now if 96L goes N....splat into land.


Time will tell. I can tell this discussion is leading nowhere, last transmission...
1502. scott39
Quoting 1501. ProgressivePulse:


Time will tell. I can tell this discussion is leading nowhere, last transmission...
Over and out.
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #9
TYPHOON HUANING
11:00 AM PhST July 12 2013
================================================= =

Typhoon "HUANING" maintained its intensity as it moves closer to Taiwan-Batanes Area

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Huaning [SOULIK] (954 hPa) located at 23.0N 127.5E or 410 km northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gustiness up to 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal warning #2

Luzon Region
------------
1. Batanes Group of Islands

Signal warning #1

Luzon Region
------------
1. Calayan
2. Babuyan Group of Islands

Additional Information
========================
Estimated rainfall amount is from 4-22 mm per hour (moderate to intense) within the 900 km diameter of the typhoon.

Fishermen specially those using small seacrafts are advised not to venture out into the Northern and Eastern Seaboards of Luzon due to big waves generated by Typhoon "HUANING".

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
1504. 7544
anyone think this 96L has a shot to become a td before reachin land ?
Quoting 1497. Grothar:
Can anyone verify the estimated movement of 96L. I can't seem to find a reliable one anywhere.


LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 15KT
Quoting 1495. 7544:


yes think u are right being so close to land maybe we will get a speacial update soon before 2 am

anyone watching the t numbers for 96L
remember so fl overland dosnt slow down development remember katrina?
1508. Grothar
Quoting 1500. Patrap:
This view shows the Area forming easily






It is very calm and quiet outside. Not a breeze or anything.
1509. Grothar
Quoting 1499. scott39:
I like Tropical Atlantic.com


Thanks. I'll look into it
1510. 7544
Quoting 1507. floridaT:
remember so fl overland dosnt slow down development remember katrina?


yep yep
1511. 7544
so its stall or moving nw tia
Quoting 1510. 7544:


yep yep


there's a lot of warm water in the glades ..
Quoting 1501. ProgressivePulse:


Time will tell. I can tell this discussion is leading nowhere, last transmission...


Well at the current moment it appears that the LLC/ULL/MLC is stationary and is in the process of working down to the surface/ or almost there.

It has time.

It is in weak steering, and it is certainly using the gulf stream.

To make matters even more confusing, the "other" part of the wave will need to be watched in the Gulf Of Mexico for further development aswell.
1514. Patrap
All the weather/mojo is in the Straits and the Atlantic tonight.



My friend David just got this shot from his apartment complex, pretty awesome

1516. Grothar
Quoting 1506. Tropicsweatherpr:


LATCUR = 23.3N LONCUR = 79.0W DIRCUR = 310DEG SPDCUR = 15KT


Thanks Trop!
Quoting 1514. Patrap:
All the weather/mojo is in the Straits and the Atlantic tonight.



i may need to stay up for this
1518. Grothar
Quoting 1507. floridaT:
remember so fl overland dosnt slow down development remember katrina?


And Wilma. She actually got stronger.
Quoting 1515. tornadodude:
My friend David just got this shot from his apartment complex, pretty awesome

OUTSTANDING
CIMSS paints a completely different picture.

Given trends in satellite and radar imagery tonight as well as vorticity analysis, I'd suspect that there may need to be an upgrade to a High chance for re-development with the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal when the 2AM EST TWO gets issued.
Quoting 1518. Grothar:


And Wilma. She actually got stronger.
i was on marco island beach 5th floor for wilma . never forget it
I am seeing some very big thunderstorms with a lot of very heavy rain and a lot of lightning in Herndon, VA. Flash Flood Warnings are everywhere in Northern Virginia.


Everyone in the area stay safe. Some flash flooding is already. Being reported west of DC.
Pretty big flash flooding threat beginning to take place in the Baltimore/DC metros. Rain is expanding quickly towards southern Baltimore suburbs and northern and western Washington suburbs. Some areas reporting over 6 inches of water in the last few hours.



^ Flash Flood Warnings are in the dark red color
Hey, I know you're one of the few around here who likes to track W Pac typhoons, so I have a question for you :)
A buddy of mine in very southern Taiwan, any idea what he can expect from this beast?

Quoting 1505. HadesGodWyvern:
1526. Grothar
There really is not a single leaf moving in FLL. The upper clouds are racing from North to South. Looks like something really wants to form south of us.
Quoting 1521. cchsweatherman:
Given trends in satellite and radar imagery tonight as well as vorticity analysis, I'd suspect that there may need to be an upgrade to a High chance for re-development with the remnants of Tropical Storm Chantal when the 2AM EST TWO gets issued.




Steering is weak aswell.
1528. Grothar
Quoting 1522. floridaT:
i was on marco island beach 5th floor for wilma . never forget it


I was in Fort Lauderdale 1st Floor screaming my guts out.
Latest water vapour image (Click to enlarge)



Quoting 1524. weatherbow:
Pretty big flash flooding threat beginning to take place in the Baltimore/DC metros. Rain is expanding quickly towards southern Baltimore suburbs and northern and western Washington suburbs. Some areas reporting over 6 inches of water in the last few hours.



^ Flash Flood Warnings are in the dark red color


Im Right in the middle of that right now..
Quoting 1526. Grothar:
There really is not a single leaf moving in FLL. The upper clouds are racing from North to South. Looks like something really wants to form south of us.


Looks like you got a ULL with a LLC (lower level calm)!

Used to get those up in the Boston area. Upper clouds would be screaming but nothing on the ground.
Quoting 1526. Grothar:
There really is not a single leaf moving in FLL. The upper clouds are racing from North to South. Looks like something really wants to form south of us.


And why I was questioning the 18 or 15mph. I was outside having a smoke 30 min ago, went straight up. The steering has collapsed.
It's becoming extremely serious now...

FLASH FLOOD STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC
1139 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

VAC059-107-153-120545-
/O.CON.KLWX.FF.W.0059.000000T0000Z-130712T0545Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
PRINCE WILLIAM VA-LOUDOUN VA-FAIRFAX VA-
1139 PM EDT THU JUL 11 2013

...A FLASH FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 145 AM EDT FOR
NORTHWESTERN FAIRFAX...SOUTHEASTERN LOUDOUN AND NORTHWESTERN PRINCE
WILLIAM COUNTIES...

AT 1131 PM EDT...EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT AND TRAINED SPOTTERS REPORTED
FLASH FLOODING FROM VERY HEAVY RAIN. DOPPLER RADAR HAS ESTIMATED
BETWEEN 3 AND 4 INCHES OF RAIN HAS FALLEN SINCE 10 PM. ADDITIONAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF UP TO 2 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED.


LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO ARCOLA...BULL
RUN...CENTREVILLE...CHANTILLY...COUNTRYSIDE...DUL LES INTERNATIONAL
AIRPORT...GREAT FALLS...HAYMARKET...HERNDON...RESTON AND SOUTH
RIDING.

AT 1115 PM EDT...FLASH FLOODING WAS REPORTED ON BRADDOCK ROAD NEAR
OLD LEE ROAD...NATIONAL DRIVE NEAR AIRLINE PARKWAY...AND OLD OX ROAD
NEAR ROCK HILL RD.

BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE
DANGERS OF FLOODING. ACT QUICKLY IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED. MOVE
TO HIGHER GROUND TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT
TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING.

LAT...LON 3906 7739 3906 7733 3905 7729 3903 7727
3903 7725 3902 7725 3888 7735 3872 7758
3878 7768 3880 7769 3907 7744

$$

JRK
Honestly not impressed by 96L. This storm remind me of Emily 2011 (gosh I hate that storm).
1535. will40
wondering why WU doesnt have 96L listed?
Just in looking at the very last images of many satellite loops, it appears as if a convective burst is setting to kick off over what may be the developing low level circulation just off the north-central coast of Cuba within the coming hours.
1537. Msdrown
Question to anyone, there are many people on this site that live all over especially in the carib. Isn't there anyone in Cuba that can give us some real time observation like many of the rest of you do. And also what about the caper verdes?????
1538. Patrap
1539. Grothar
Quoting 1531. JustDucky251:


Looks like you got a ULL with a LLC (lower level calm)!

Used to get those up in the Boston area. Upper clouds would be screaming but nothing on the ground.


Thee only time I see this is when a storm is forming nearby.
Quoting 1536. cchsweatherman:
Just in looking at the very last images of many satellite loops, it appears as if a convective burst is setting to kick off over what may be the developing low level circulation just off the north-central coast of Cuba within the coming hours.


Here?

Quoting 1538. Patrap:


Be tomorrow b4 the rain starts - if it starts. Everytime I'm sure it will, it doesn't. Adopting a wait and see attitude.
1542. Grothar
Quoting 1532. ProgressivePulse:


And why I was questioning the 18 or 15mph. I was outside having a smoke 30 min ago, went straight up. The steering has collapsed.


Aw, P. You just broke my heart (again) I can't picture you for a smoking guy.

It is really strange along the cost. Truly, not a single movement and the clouds are racing south. How is it by you?
Quoting 1540. ProgressivePulse:


Here?



Pretty much dead on right over the low-level vort maximum as analyzed by the CIMSS.
1545. Grothar
Quoting 1537. Msdrown:
Question to anyone, there are many people on this site that live all over especially in the carib. Isn't there anyone in Cuba that can give us some real time observation like many of the rest of you do. And also what about the caper verdes?????


I don't believe they have access to the internet as we. Very limited. I don't recall ever seeing someone from Cuba on any site.
Quoting 1539. Grothar:


Thee only time I see this is when a storm is forming nearby.


Agreed. Since the coast around Boston has an average wind speed of 13mph, when the lower level clouds slowed or stopped, the air went still, and the upper levels screamed, a storm was coming - usually a Nor'easter. Most years when I was growing up we would get 5-6 big storms.
Hi Everybody,
the NHC still hasn't dropped Chantal on their floater page
1548. Msdrown
Quoting 1545. Grothar:


I don't believe they have access to the internet as we. Very limited. I don't recall ever seeing someone from Cuba on any site.


Well that sort of blows wind. What about the verdes??
Quoting 1545. Grothar:


I don't believe they have access to the internet as we. Very limited. I don't recall ever seeing someone from Cuba on any site.
Actually, we had a poster a few days ago by the name of 0z, who claimed to be Cuban met. He was actually pretty knowledgeable about Chantal's situation.
1550. Patrap
Key West
NEXRAD Radar

Velocity Azimuth Display Wind Profile ° Elevation
Range 124 NMI

1551. will40
there was a MET from Cuba on a couple of nights ago.
he said it was his first time here
1552. Patrap
96L and 03Chantal are the same as per NRL
1553. Grothar
Quoting 1549. Bluestorm5:
Actually, we had a poster a few days ago by the name of 0z, who claimed to be Cuban met. He was actually pretty knowledgeable about Chantal's situation.
Quoting 1549. Bluestorm5:
Actually, we had a poster a few days ago by the name of 0z, who claimed to be Cuban met. He was actually pretty knowledgeable about Chantal's situation.


I saw that, too. Very odd.
1554. 7544
Quoting 1544. Funication:
http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/SAT_ATL/anim16wv.h tml

good view here


hi is there a rainbow link like this my ssd link is still blinking cant get it to fully load thanks
1555. will40
Quoting 1552. Patrap:
96L and 03Chantal are the same as per NRL
yes but did you see the track they showed? it sure wasnt 96L lol
1556. Grothar
Quoting 1548. Msdrown:


Well that sort of blows wind. What about the verdes??


Oh, we're friendly with each other.
1557. Msdrown
Quoting 1549. Bluestorm5:
Actually, we had a poster a few days ago by the name of 0z, who claimed to be Cuban met. He was actually pretty knowledgeable about Chantal's situation.


How can we get a hold of this guy?? And maybe get him more frequent since so much stuff runs over cuba???
Checking in Here in Palmetto Bay/South Miami, looking outside at my Palm Tree's, the branches aren't even moving at all, they are dead still.

And my pet fish is hiding..



Guys, that swirl is not your center its on the north coast of cuba
1560. will40
Quoting 1557. Msdrown:


How can we get a hold of this guy?? And maybe get him more frequent since so much stuff runs over cuba???


it was his first time here. haven't seen him since
1561. Grothar
Anyone know the definition of dubious?
1562. Grothar
Quoting 1558. FIUStormChaser:
Checking in Here in Palmetto Bay/South Miami, looking outside at my Palm Tree's, the branches aren't even moving at all, they are dead still.

And my pet fish is hiding.... Lol


Look under the couch. That is where they usually go.
Quoting 1542. Grothar:


Aw, P. You just broke my heart (again) I can't picture you for a smoking guy.

It is really strange along the cost. Truly, not a single movement and the clouds are racing south. How is it by you?


Quitting soon Gro, ugg! Clear Skies here in Jupiter, dead calm.

According to Levi...that southern flank in the Carib...will need to be watched once its in the GOM.
1565. Msdrown
Quoting 1556. Grothar:


Oh, we're friendly with each other.


Not sure what that means but if it was negative I didn't mean to be offensive at all. Just trying to get good infor.
1566. Patrap
Quoting 1562. Grothar:


Look under the couch. That is where they usually go.


Will do, maybe that fish took my Tv remote all along.
According to observations reported from surface stations to Wunderground via the Wundermap over the Bahamas and from Cuba, albeit sparse in availability, there are indications that a possible surface circulation and maybe even closed may be taking shape aligning with the low-level vorticity maximum analyzed by the CIMSS as shown in previous posts.
1569. Gaea
Quoting 1561. Grothar:
Anyone know the definition of dubious?

I might, or might not... and I may tell you, or just keep it to myself.
i was checking the buoys too near the keys most are not functioning. not much wind i found and one near marathon had rising pressure.
Would advisories be reinitiated on Chantal or...?
I meant 2 days, FIU, lol.
NASA’s Interstellar Boundary Explorer (IBEX), a $169 million spacecraft has discovered what many scientists surmised; the sun has a comet-like tail. The less than 20 foot square craft, displayed the tail which couldn’t be seen before because it doesn’t shine, nor does it reflect light. Is the sun a comet?

No, it is a star. Both stars and comets have tails, which can usually be seen through a telescope. Our sun was not that easy.

“By examining the neutral atoms, IBEX made the first observations of the heliotail. Many models have suggested the heliotail might be like this or like that, but we’ve had no observations. We always drew pictures where the tail of the heliosphere just disappears off the page, since we couldn’t even speculate about what it really looked like,” said David McComas, lead author on the research and principal investigator for IBEX at Southwest Research Institute in San Antonio, Texas.

Quoting 1561. Grothar:
Anyone know the definition of dubious?
I know a couple of definitions, but I question whether either of them are right.
1575. scott39
Quoting 1561. Grothar:
Anyone know the definition of dubious?
Unsure of outcome or dishonest or untrustworthy.
1577. Patrap
NRL Tropical Cyclone Page

Development Team
NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system.
2013 Season Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
green ball icon96L.INVEST kml icon
green ball icon03L.CHANTAL kml icon
1579. will40
Quoting 1577. Patrap:
NRL Tropical Cyclone Page

Development Team
NOTE: 96L and 03L are the same system.
2013 Season Storms
All Active Year

Atlantic
green ball icon96L.INVEST kml icon
green ball icon03L.CHANTAL kml icon



did you see the track they showed there Pat?
1580. Grothar
Quoting 1563. ProgressivePulse:


Quitting soon Gro, ugg! Clear Skies here in Jupiter, dead calm.


I know it's difficult to stop. I had a cigarette once. It does look strange out, doesn't it.
1581. Grothar
Quoting 1574. CosmicEvents:
I know a couple of definitions, but I question whether either of them are right.


LOL. You never fail me Cos. How you been?
1582. Dakster
Quoting 1556. Grothar:


Oh, we're friendly with each other.


How friendly?

Looks like South Florida is going to get some wind and rain.
Taiwan evacuates 2,000 tourists as super-typhoon looms Posted on July 11, 2013

July 11, 2013 – TAIWAN - The typhoon, packing gusts of up to 227 kilometers (140 miles) per hour, was 960 kilometers east of the island’s southernmost tip as of 0300 GMT, Taiwan’s Central Weather Bureau said. Soulik is moving west-northwest towards Taiwan at about 22 kilometers per hour and could narrowly skip or make landfall in the north of the island sometime between late Friday and Saturday morning, the bureau said. “The public must heighten their vigilance as the typhoon will certainly bring strong winds and heavy rains,” a weather forecaster told AFP. Authorities on Thursday evacuated 2,300 tourists from Green Island, off the southeastern city of Taitung, and issued a warning to ships sailing north and east off Taiwan to take special precaution. The Hong Kong Observatory has classified Soulik as a “super typhoon” on its website, while Taiwan’s weather bureau listed it as a “strong typhoon.” On the Chinese mainland, meteorological authorities maintained an orange alert—the second-highest level—for Soulik on Thursday, Beijing’s official Xinhua news agency reported. After hitting or passing Taiwan on Saturday Soulik is expected to head towards the coastal provinces of Zhejiang and Fujian, bringing “extremely strong” winds, it cited the National Meteorological Center as saying. In August 2009 Typhoon Morakot killed about 600 people in Taiwan, most of them buried in huge landslides in the south, in one of the worst natural disasters to lash the island in recent years. -Physics

Link
Quoting 1571. wxgeek723:
Would advisories be reinitiated on Chantal or...?


They would be reinitiated on Chantal.
Quoting 1572. ProgressivePulse:
I meant 2 days, FIU, lol.


Really? 2 days to just sit over that water?
1586. Grothar
Quoting 1582. Dakster:


How friendly?

Looks like South Florida is going to get some wind and rain.


Stay dry Dakman! Nite everyone.
Quoting 1568. cchsweatherman:
According to observations reported from surface stations to Wunderground via the Wundermap over the Bahamas and from Cuba, albeit sparse in availability, there are indications that a possible surface circulation and maybe even closed may be taking shape aligning with the low-level vorticity maximum analyzed by the CIMSS as shown in previous posts.


Interesting! It was getting closer to being closed an hour or so ago, but convection started popping up above it, so it's difficult to see now.
meanwhile in the Mid-Atlantic.....



1589. Dakster
Quoting 1586. Grothar:


Stay dry Dakman! Nite everyone.


You too. Goodnight!
Quoting 1580. Grothar:


I know it's difficult to stop. I had a cigarette once. It does look strange out, doesn't it.


Well here it is clear skies with no wind so not really yet. Your low has been skating the N coast of Cuba from the Windward passage, you know that right? Looks to be the mark.
1591. will40
Quoting 1588. FIUStormChaser:
meanwhile in the Mid-Atlantic.....





yes and more to come im affraid
I 'm trying to stop too, but I smoke an occasional cigarrette, and sometimes more. Some doctors say it helps overall in my case,,,we'll see, for now I'm dubeous, and usually a little hungry.
Quoting 1590. ProgressivePulse:


Well here it is clear skies with no wind so not really yet. Your low has been skating the N coast of Cuba from the Windward passage, you know that right? Looks to be the mark.


Same here wet and breezy tommoro in SFL
Quoting 1581. Grothar:


LOL. You never fail me Cos. How you been?
I've been ok. Obviously thinking of you in recent months. Glad to see you back in the comfort of home.
Brilliant.
Quoting 1574. CosmicEvents:
I know a couple of definitions, but I question whether either of them are right.

1597. scott39
Quoting 1592. CosmicEvents:
I 'm trying to stop too, but I smoke an occasional cigarrette, and sometimes more. Some doctors say it helps overall in my case,,,we'll see, for now I'm dubeous, and usually a little hungry.
E-cig comes in many flavors. Kill two birds with one stone.
1598. EricSFL
Hi bloggers. Has anyone noticed the NHC loops are out of time / not updating accordingly? They've been like this for about two days now.
Quoting 1590. ProgressivePulse:


Well here it is clear skies with no wind so not really yet. Your low has been skating the N coast of Cuba from the Windward passage, you know that right? Looks to be the mark.


Observations of mine in Palmetto Bay/ Perrine, Florida

- located a few blocks from Biscayne Bay, on US 1, at this time of night, their is typically a breeze, however tonight the air is still

- Alot of bushes and tree's near by, but i do not hear any of the typical cricket or animal noise outside.

- Palm tree branches are very still, as i said, typically on any night, they are at least swaying a little bit.

- Sky above me is clear, but i can see clouds to the east and Southeast.
1600. Dakster
Quoting 1598. EricSFL:
Hi bloggers. Has anyone noticed the NHC loops are out of time / not updating accordingly? They've been like this for about two days now.


yes - they have been having some issues. Some browsers they just flicker or don't show anything.
1601. EricSFL

Not much going on right now according to radar.
1602. Dakster


Has that - we're about get slammed with wind and rain feeling don't it?
Latest Water Vapour image



You can just about see the circulation if you zoom in and look at the clouds off the north coast of Cuba, the ones closer to Florida (tilt screen back too). The ULL seems to be getting closer, so if both were to converge on the same spot, the system would likely intensify quickly, especially given that the ULL did have some mid level circulation/was trying to work its way down.

Well i am sitting in my home just west of Washington DC and the rain will not stop, been like this for a couple of hours and we've picked up about 2 inches in just about 65 mins
Quoting 1599. FIUStormChaser:


Observations of mine in Palmetto Bay/ Perrine, Florida

- located a few blocks from Biscayne Bay, on US 1, at this time of night, their is typically a breeze, however tonight the air is still

- Alot of bushes and tree's near by, but i do not hear any of the typical cricket or animal noise outside.

- Palm tree branches are very still, as i said, typically on any night, they are at least swaying a little bit.

- Sky above me is clear, but i can see clouds to the east and Southeast.




Thanks for the update lol but the center is still down by Cuba tommoro is out big weather day :)



Friday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%
1606. Dakster
Quoting 1605. chrisdscane:




Thanks for the update lol but the center is still down by Cuba tommoro is out big weather day :)



Friday Showers and thunderstorms likely, mainly after 2pm. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 90. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon. Chance of precipitation is 60%


Can you explain where all of the birds went, then?
Even though the observation comes in and out, each time the station north of Moron, Cuba has reported, it has reported with a steady west wind for over the past hour now indicative of the possibility of a closed surface circulation.
I wonder if we are trying to accelerate Chantal to quickly. The primo conditions were to develop 24-36hrs before landfall, which was "supposed to be Saturday". And if the area off the coast of Cuba is the one to develop we are back to ground zero basically?
I think I've figured out the most probable forecast for the next 72-144 hours on Chantal's remains or remnants.
1610. EricSFL
Quoting 1602. Dakster:


Has that - we're about get slammed with wind and rain feeling don't it?

Not a single leaf moving right now. lol But it felt oppressively hot and humid this afternoon though.
Quoting 1608. ProgressivePulse:
I wonder if we are trying to accelerate Chantal to quickly. The primo conditions were to develop 24-36hrs before landfall, which was "supposed to be Saturday". And if the area off the coast of Cuba is the one to develop we are back to ground zero basically?



wonder is the NHC knows about this
So no one is leaning toward it being further E? In the central/Eastern Bahamas?

1613. Dakster
Quoting 1607. cchsweatherman:
Even though the observation comes in and out, each time the station north of Moron, Cuba has reported, it has reported with a steady west wind for over the past hour now indicative of the possibility of a closed surface circulation.


Moron? Is that where Fidel is from?
Quoting 1612. StormJunkie:
So no one is leaning toward it being further E? In the central/Eastern Bahamas?



Not seeing any surface observations nor low level vorticity indicative of the focus being in the Central/Eastern Bahamas despite the deep convection ongoing there.
1615. Kumo
Quoting 1553. Grothar:


I saw that, too. Very odd.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Internet_censorship_ in_Cuba#Circumventing_censorship

It's possible although very risky.
1616. scott39
Quoting 1612. StormJunkie:
So no one is leaning toward it being further E? In the central/Eastern Bahamas?

A center reformation is possible there.
Soulik~ Click pic for loop>

Junkie thats what it looks like to me
Ok guys, if someone can explain this to me.

If the system north of Cuba is reinitiated as Chantal, why they renamed it 96L and then say with a clarification note that 96L and 03L are the same ?

I thought that if you have an Invest whatever number it is, out there, if this Invest becomes better organized then you give this Invest one of the names on the list but not a name already used on that season.
Where ever/if a center forms, it would be a reformation seeing as we haven't really had a center since declassification...imho

1621. Grothar
Quoting 1590. ProgressivePulse:


Well here it is clear skies with no wind so not really yet. Your low has been skating the N coast of Cuba from the Windward passage, you know that right? Looks to be the mark.


I've been saying it for 6 days. It looks very threatening.
1623. will40
its a weird situation to say the least. WU usually always lists invest on the active storm page but nothing there for 96L
Quoting 1612. StormJunkie:
So no one is leaning toward it being further E? In the central/Eastern Bahamas?



Not discounting, just going on the latest obs and latest TWD.



THERE IS
WEAKENING SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FORM 26N73W TO 22N76W AND
A STRONGER SURFACE TROUGH THAT EXTENDS FROM NEAR GRAND BAHAMA
ISLAND TO CENTRAL CUBA.
Quoting 1620. StormJunkie:
Where ever/if a center forms, it would be a reformations seeing as we haven't really had a center since declassification...imho



It's going to feel a tug from that intense convection associated with the old mid-level center. Never know, the mid-level center might win out.
Here in the Central Bahamas. Just went through a few hours of some of the nastiest thunderstorms I've ever experienced. We had winds approaching TS force.
1627. Grothar
Quoting 1620. StormJunkie:
Where ever/if a center forms, it would be a reformation seeing as we haven't really had a center since declassification...imho



Your image is more threatening looking than mine.


Fresh ASCAT-B Coastal
1630. Dakster
Quoting 1626. ExumaMET:
Here in the Central Bahamas. Just went through a few hours of some of the nastiest thunderstorms I've ever experienced. We had winds approaching TS force.


Apparently you have never been there during a hurricane then. Consider yourself lucky.
1631. AztecCe
Where are Chantal's remains headed now? Still florida?
1632. Grothar
Quoting 1606. Dakster:


Can you explain where all of the birds went, then?


I didn't see any birds at all today. Just a few crows.
According to surface wind analysis from the nowCOAST satellite service done at around 11 PM tonight, there may be a tightly closed surface circulation with at least tropical depression force winds just south of Andros Island.

1634. Dakster
Quoting 1632. Grothar:


I didn't see any birds at all today. Just a few crows.


That's good, some people here will need those for later.
Quoting 1633. cchsweatherman:
According to surface wind analysis from the nowCOAST satellite service done at around 11 PM tonight, there may be a tightly closed surface circulation with at least tropical depression force winds just south of Andros Island.


How accurate is this?
Quoting 1629. Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT-B Coastal


need some winds on the west side ..
Quoting 1604. HurricaneWeatherDan:
Well i am sitting in my home just west of Washington DC and the rain will not stop, been like this for a couple of hours and we've picked up about 2 inches in just about 65 mins

You in Fairfax too? I don't think I have ever seen it line up like this except for maybe Lee in 2011
Quoting 1635. TropicalAnalystwx13:

How accurate is this?


Seems to confirm well with actual land observations from the time; difficult to cross reference with ocean observations though since I don't have access to those.
1639. Grothar
Quoting 1635. TropicalAnalystwx13:

How accurate is this?


Possible, even though the big flare-up is to the east and looks more threatening, a low could be forming below Andros Island. All the clouds here are moving North to South.

1640. sar2401
Quoting WeatherfanPR:
Ok guys, if someone can explain this to me.

If the system north of Cuba is reinitiated as Chantal, why they renamed it 96L and then say with a clarification note that 96L and 03L are the same ?

I thought that if you have an Invest whatever number it is, out there, if this Invest becomes better organized then you give this Invest one of the names on the list but not a name already used on that season.

I can't find anything on the NHC (or any other website) that says that 96L for 2013 actually has been assigned as an invest. It appears as an AOI on the NHC front page but it doesn't appear to be a normal invest. I'm probably wrong about this, and someone can correct me if I am. If it is, in fact, an "official" invest, it should get the next name up the line if it develops into a tropical cyclone. That would be Dorian. However, like most of us, I'm totally confused on the entire Chantal/remnantlow/AOI/possible invest evolution at this point. This is one of the weirder storms I remember tracking.
Assuming that the NHC is conservative.. 40-50% at 2am.
Quoting 1630. Dakster:


Apparently you have never been there during a hurricane then. Consider yourself lucky.


I've been through 3 hurricanes; Lili, Irene and Sandy. Those thunderstorms that rolled through earlier tonight were every bit as vicious as the ones in those storms (minus the wind, naturally). Lili was the worst.
1643. will40
Quoting 1640. sar2401:

I can't find anything on the NHC (or any other website) that says that 96L for 2013 actually has been assigned as an invest. It appears as an AOI on the NHC front page but it doesn't appear to be a normal invest. I'm probably wrong about this, and someone can correct me if I am. If it is, in fact, an "official" invest, it should get the next name up the line if it develops into a tropical cyclone. That would be Dorian. However, like most of us, I'm totally confused on the entire Chantal/remnantlow/AOI/possible invest evolution at this point. This is one of the weirder storms I remember tracking.



Navy Site has it
1644. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

How accurate is this?

Frankly, without it being flown, I don't think it's possible to say. I don't see a surface low with a closed circulation, but that's just looking at satellite photos and the few observation stations that are available. I haven't seen a flight plan for Friday - has anyone else? I'd be amazed if the didn't fly this one, just to give some certainty to what may or may not be happening.
1645. sar2401
Quoting will40:



Navy Site has it

Sorry, I forgot that the Navy site did have it. I know the Navy site and the NHC don't always match up perfectly, so I'm still waiting for something direct from the NHC.
I think the flash flooding situations in southern South Carolina and the DC area are worth watching as well. It is still raining in the most heavily affected areas when it comes to flash flooding in both regions. Numerous water rescues are occurring as well.

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
FLASH FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC
1240 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN CHARLESTON HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR...
NORTHERN ALLENDALE COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST SOUTH CAROLINA...


* UNTIL 645 AM EDT

* AT 1236 AM EDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED
MODERATE TO OCCASIONALLY HEAVY RAINS AFFECTING MUCH OF ALLENDALE
COUNTY. ALTHOUGH THE HEAVIEST RAINS HAVE TEMPORARILY DIMINISHED...
CONDITIONS FAVOR ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WITH TORRENTIAL RAINFALL
REDEVELOPING LATER TONIGHT. GIVEN WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOODING IS
ONGOING AND ANY ADDITIONAL RAINFALL WILL ONLY AGGRAVATE FLOODING
THAT IS ALREADY IN PROGRESS...THE FLASH FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN
EXTENDED UNTIL 645 AM EDT. THIS IS A PARTICULARLY DANGEROUS
SITUATION.

* FLASH FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN AND AROUND...
ULMER...SYCAMORE...ALLENDALE...MARTIN...

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

THE MAJORITY OF FLOOD DEATHS ARE DUE TO PEOPLE DRIVING INTO WATER OF
UNKNOWN DEPTH. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL ENOUGH TO
SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. EVEN MODERN SPORT UTILITY VEHICLES ARE
VULNERABLE TO FLOODING. TO AVOID THE RISK OF DEATH...FIND AN
ALTERNATE ROUTE IF THE ROAD IS FLOODED.

TO REPORT FLOODING...CONTACT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN
CHARLESTON TOLL FREE AT 1-888-383-2024.

&&
1647. will40
Quoting 1645. sar2401:

Sorry, I forgot that the Navy site did have it. I know the Navy site and the NHC don't always match up perfectly, so I'm still waiting for something direct from the NHC.


yes sometimes they jump the gun so to speek
1648. Dakster
Quoting 1642. ExumaMET:


I've been through 3 hurricanes; Lili, Irene and Sandy. Those thunderstorms that rolled through earlier tonight were every bit as vicious as the ones in those storms (minus the wind, naturally). Lili was the worst.


That's not good then.
1649. will40
we will know at 2 i guess
Quoting 1637. all4hurricanes:

You in Fairfax too? I don't think I have ever seen it line up like this except for maybe Lee in 2011


Yeah im in the Centrevile/Clifton area.. Lee was sure something
Night, everyone. Will check on 96L in the morning. My hunch is that whatever low level center is around tries to locate further east towards the intense convection. This should be easier to do considering steering currents are weak.

Looks to be trying to wrap around a center between the southern tip of Florida and Cuba. This has a ways to to be even a depression.



Quoting 1607. cchsweatherman:
Even though the observation comes in and out, each time the station north of Moron, Cuba has reported, it has reported with a steady west wind for over the past hour now indicative of the possibility of a closed surface circulation.


I had noticed earlier on, around 7pm ET, that some locations in eastern Cuba (Santiago de Cuba and Holquin) were reporting W winds 5-15 mph, pressures were still high 1015-1017 mb

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 111552
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 11 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 12/1530Z
D. 28.5N 77.5W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 13/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0703A CHANTAL
C. 13/0900Z
D. 33.5N 76.5W
E. 13/1130Z TO 13/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
1655. Msdrown
Quoting 1644. sar2401:

Frankly, without it being flown, I don't think it's possible to say. I don't see a surface low with a closed circulation, but that's just looking at satellite photos and the few observation stations that are available. I haven't seen a flight plan for Friday - has anyone else? I'd be amazed if the didn't fly this one, just to give some certainty to what may or may not be happening.


I thought I saw Patrap post that they canceled it.
More updated RTMA Surface Wind analysis via nowCOAST (as of 12 AM):

Quoting 1654. ProgressivePulse:

Plan of the Day


000
NOUS42 KNHC 111552
REPRPD
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT THU 11 JULY 2013
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 12/1100Z TO 13/1100Z JULY 2013
TCPOD NUMBER.....13-041

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 71
A. 12/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 12/1530Z
D. 28.5N 77.5W
E. 12/1700Z TO 12/2100Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO -- TEAL 72
A. 13/1200Z,1800Z
B. AFXXX 0703A CHANTAL
C. 13/0900Z
D. 33.5N 76.5W
E. 13/1130Z TO 13/1800Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


So.... 1 pm EST?


Looks S/SSW Of Andros.
1659. will40
Quoting 1655. Msdrown:


I thought I saw Patrap post that they canceled it.


no its still listed
1660. will40
Quoting 1657. Bluestorm5:


So.... 1 pm EST?


2:00 it looks like
I post the NHC POD and look at the location of the center fixes and have to wonder that they expect this to be well north of Bahama's by 18Z tomorrow? lol...
1662. EricSFL
Buoy observations from Fowey Rocks and Molasses Reef do not support a North wind, assuming a circulation might be forming to the southeast. Pressures are rising also:

Station FWYF1
NDBC
Location: 25.591N 80.097W
Date: Fri, 12 Jul 2013 04:00:00 UTC
Winds: S (180%uFFFD) at 9.9 kt gusting to 9.9 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.98 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.9 F
Water Temperature: 82.8 F

Station MLRF1
NDBC
Location: 25.012N 80.376W
Date: Fri, 12 Jul 2013 04:00:00 UTC
Winds: S (180%uFFFD) at 11.1 kt gusting to 12.0 kt
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.99 in and rising
Air Temperature: 81.5 F
Water Temperature: 83.5 F

Edit: Although they do concur with the wind maps posted by cchsweatherman.
1663. AztecCe
is chantal still going to florida?
Quoting 1660. will40:


2:00 it looks like
1 pm EST (err, EDT since it's daylight saving here in USA).

NOAA's Zulu time chart
Quoting 1655. Msdrown:


I thought I saw Patrap post that they canceled it.


They cancelled an earlier in the day scheduled flight and rescheduled for the time that I posted.
Quoting 1657. Bluestorm5:


So.... 1 pm EST?


Take off is 15:30 which is 11:30est.
1667. will40
Quoting 1664. Bluestorm5:
1 pm EST (err, EDT since it's daylight saving here in USA).

NOAA's Zulu time chart


yes you right i was looking at wrong POTD
Quoting 1666. ProgressivePulse:


Take off is 15:30 which is 11:30est.
Even better.
18Z is 2pm EDT.
Changed again, lol.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72....CHANGED
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 11/1500Z
D. 20.0N 79.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 11/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

Just wondering why this data point is between Jamaica and Cuba.
Any ideas when the satellite eclipse is over? No recent images (well, since 0145Z).
1672. will40
Quoting 1669. ProgressivePulse:
18Z is 2pm EDT.


yes they be on station at 1700
hmmmmmm

Quoting 1670. TropicalAnalystwx13:
Changed again, lol.

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. REMNANTS OF TROPICAL STORM CHANTAL
FLIGHT ONE -- TEAL 72....CHANGED
A. 11/1800Z
B. AFXXX 0603A CHANTAL
C. 11/1500Z
D. 20.0N 79.5W
E. 11/1730Z TO 11/2000Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT


That is yesterday's POD.
Quoting Skyepony:
Soulik~ Click pic for loop>



Taiwan Radar...


Link

Miyakojima/Yaeyama



Link

Ishigakijima Obs....
985.7mb
I just want to know how they are expecting this to be at

D. 28.5N 77.5W

by 2pm tomorrow?
1677. EricSFL
Quoting 1671. ecflweatherfan:
Any ideas when the satellite eclipse is over? No recent images (well, since 0145Z).


You can find updated satellite loops from Colorado State RAMMB here: Link
Quoting 1674. ProgressivePulse:


That is yesterday's POD.

Oh, lol. That explains it.

I need to go to bed.
1679. will40
looks like they be off SC coast when they are on station lol
Surprised this hasn't been posted but the ULL that is supposed to work its way west from the Atlantic towards FL. well this is what the CMC does with it.

Quoting 1678. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Oh, lol. That explains it.

I need to go to bed.


Night TA3, 2pm tomorrow :-)
Quoting 1677. EricSFL:


You can find updated satellite loops from Colorado State RAMMB here:Link


Thanks a million! :-)
1683. EricSFL
Quoting 1682. ecflweatherfan:


Thanks a million! :-)


You're welcome.
1684. will40
make that closer to GA coast
1685. Dakster
EricSFL - Is that your boat in your avatar?

What do you do with it during a storm?
Quoting 1685. Dakster:
EricSFL - Is that your boat in your avatar?

What do you do with it during a storm?


Look like a cruise boat, lol :)
1687. EricSFL
Quoting 1685. Dakster:
EricSFL - Is that your boat in your avatar?

What do you do with it during a storm?

Lol I wish! I'd hunker down in it any day!
1688. Dakster
Quoting 1686. Bluestorm5:


Look like a cruise boat, lol :)


Yes, how do you know he doesn't own it, though?
Quoting 1680. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Surprised this hasn't been posted but the ULL that is supposed to work its way west from the Atlantic towards FL. well this is what the CMC does with it.


Keep in mind that the CMC has done this several times already this season... Wouldn't expect it to happen, something to keep an eye, but nothing telling that it would become a reality.
1690. EricSFL
Quoting 1688. Dakster:


Yes, how do you know he doesn't own it, though?


I'm no Micky Arison...
Quoting 1629. Skyepony:
Fresh ASCAT-B Coastal



23.5N 78.0W?
Quoting 1680. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Surprised this hasn't been posted but the ULL that is supposed to work its way west from the Atlantic towards FL. well this is what the CMC does with it.



Not gonna happen. The GFS keeps a ton of zonal flow over the Gulf for the next seven days.
1693. will40
Tropical Outlook at 2:00 still list 30%
Quoting 1688. Dakster:


Yes, how do you know he doesn't own it, though?
That ship belongs to the biggest cruise company in the world, lol.
1695. Dakster
Quoting 1690. EricSFL:


I'm no Micky Arison...


I was hoping...
2am TWO = COPY N PASTE
1697. will40
Quoting 1696. WeatherfanPR:
2am TWO = COPY N PASTE


Discussion not out yet tho
Much ado about nothing. Chantal trough is forming alot of convection and that is a positive sign, but its not quite far north and west enough yet to redevelop.


Two more days I think, and its either dead and gone or it has some relevant form of surface circulation by then.


Time will tell after that where it goes. There is a stalling trough that may chuck it out to the east or north but I have a feeling this general area of disturbed weather will crawl its way through the straights and into the GOM by Sunday night or Monday morning.


From there we will see where it goes. If the trough dips into the GOM it would cause the system to turn northeast but it would also cause significant interaction, and depending on the level of development could cause it to redevelop faster, or cause its development to be interfered with.


I am honestly surprised the trough of chantal is doing so well, I thought this would be long over by now.


The saga continues.
Ahem.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 120514
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
1700. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:
Actually, we had a poster a few days ago by the name of 0z, who claimed to be Cuban met. He was actually pretty knowledgeable about Chantal's situation.

Sorry, I'm just catching up here after a busy day. I responded to him in a friendly way but I'm somewhat "dubious" that he was real. I was in Cuba four years ago diving. As an US citizen, it has to be done in kind of a sly manner, since no individual US citizen is allowed to travel to Cuba directly. I went with a tour group through Mexico. Your passport doesn't get stamped in or out of Cuba, and the Mexican "tour group" provided paperwork which showed I spent the entire two weeks in Playa del Carmen.

I was in both Havana and Santiago for a few days. If you stay in a tourista hotel, meaning one that only caters to non-Cubans, there is internet access. You can't just stroll in off the street, however. You get an ID card (kind of like a visa) when you arrive in Cuba, and your passport is held by your hotel or the tour group manager. There's no wi-fi. You use the computers in the business center, and there's no doubt in my mind that your use is monitored. The computers were fairly new Chinese Saiweida brand desktops with 21 inch flat screen monitors running Windows 7. There were something like seven or eight different language options on the computer. I was able to access WU and some financial sites with no problem. Yahoo was clearly censored, with some stories that were just blank spaces on the front page. I tried to access one anti-Castro site I knew of and got nothing but 404 errors. Strangely, the computer locked up shortly after that and the person in charge said there was a "technical" issue with that computer. There was a "technical" issue with every computer I used in that hotel after that, using my hotel supplied user ID, so trying to go to an anti-Castro site while in Cuba was probably not a good idea. :-)

There were a few cyber cafes but I saw no evidence of any wi-fi-fi hotspots anywhere in Havana. There may be ones, but I never saw one or even an ad for one. The cyber cafes I did see were for Cubans, and a sign on the door of one said access was restricted to Cuban citizens only. From what I was told by Cubans, access at these cyber cafes are mostly for e-mail and web site access is tightly controlled. The cost is really prohibitive. The sign I saw was the equivalent of $1.50 per hour. That may not sound too bad, but the average Cuban only makes the equivalent of US$20 a month. I'm dubious about our supposed Cuban met because I know that citizen access to the internet is controlled, and it seems even more unlikely to me that a Cuban government employee would be allowed to post at "civilian" web site like WU. Just my use of the term "anti-Castro", in my opinion, would be caught by government filters, and there's only one provider. Posting at work seems unlikely and, even if he was one of the lucky few to have a personal computer, I doubt he'd be able to post here. I hope I'm wrong, since it would be nice to have a Cuban met with us, but I really, really doubt he was for real.
1701. will40
hopefully the Discussion will give more information
Quoting 1699. KoritheMan:
Ahem.


000
ABNT20 KNHC 120514
TWOAT

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL
EXTENDS NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE NORTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA ACROSS
CENTRAL CUBA INTO THE BAHAMAS. THIS SYSTEM IS ACCOMPANIED BY A
DISORGANIZED AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND THUNDERSTORMS. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE FAVORABLE FOR
DEVELOPMENT DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WHEN THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE MISSION IS SCHEDULED TO INVESTIGATE THE DISTURBANCE
LATER TODAY...IF NECESSARY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN

Congratulations Kori, How does it feel to post the 2AM TWO First? lol

Goodnight everyone.
1703. Dakster
Quoting 1701. will40:
hopefully the Discussion will give more information


Maybe. But wouldn't count on it.
1704. zampaz
Quoting 1617. Skyepony:
Soulik~ Click pic for loop>



Thank you for sharing and donating your time to the wunderground Skyepony!
1705. 7544
Quoting 1677. EricSFL:


You can find updated satellite loops from Colorado State RAMMB here: Link


hi do you have a rainbow link like these my ssd link is still flashing lol thanks
1706. sar2401
Quoting DataNerd:
Much ado about nothing. Chantal trough is forming alot of convection and that is a positive sign, but its not quite far north and west enough yet to redevelop.


Two more days I think, and its either dead and gone or it has some relevant form of surface circulation by then.


Time will tell after that where it goes. There is a stalling trough that may chuck it out to the east or north but I have a feeling this general area of disturbed weather will crawl its way through the straights and into the GOM by Sunday night or Monday morning.


From there we will see where it goes. If the trough dips into the GOM it would cause the system to turn northeast but it would also cause significant interaction, and depending on the level of development could cause it to redevelop faster, or cause its development to be interfered with.


I am honestly surprised the trough of chantal is doing so well, I thought this would be long over by now.


The saga continues.

That it does. :-) It seems to me the only way for this new blob to develop is northward though, not south. The conditions are better, with less shear and dry air, and the SST's are warmer in the Atlantic than the Gulf right now. My own guess is that this doesn't have a chance to get past the invest stage, but I've been fooled so many times this year, as you say, we'll see what happens two days from now. I hope if it's killed then, it stays dead this time.
*yawn*

Back to boring again. Wake me up in August.
1708. 7544
oh nice blob to the east side of 96L will that connect with the andros spin ?
Quoting 1702. TylerStanfield:

Congratulations Kori, How does it feel to post the 2AM TWO First? lol

Goodnight everyone.


Fabulous.
1710. sar2401
Quoting 7544:


hi do you have a rainbow link like these my ssd link is still flashing lol thanks

None of the rainbow loops seem to be updating or working correctly. It's not just you.
1711. zampaz
Quoting 1700. sar2401:

Sorry, I'm just catching up here after a busy day. I responded to him in a friendly way but I'm somewhat "dubious" that he was real. I was in Cuba four years ago diving. As an US citizen, it has to be done in kind of a sly manner, since no individual US citizen is allowed to travel to Cuba directly. I went with a tour group through Mexico. Your passport doesn't get stamped in or out of Cuba, and the Mexican "tour group" provided paperwork which showed I spent the entire two weeks in Playa del Carmen.

I was in both Havana and Santiago for a few days. If you stay in a tourista hotel, meaning one that only caters to non-Cubans, there is internet access. You can't just stroll in off the street, however. You get an ID card (kind of like a visa) when you arrive in Cuba, and your passport is held by your hotel or the tour group manager. There's no wi-fi. You use the computers in the business center, and there's no doubt in my mind that your use is monitored. The computers were fairly new Chinese Saiweida brand desktops with 21 inch flat screen monitors running Windows 7. There were something like seven or eight different language options on the computer. I was able to access WU and some financial sites with no problem. Yahoo was clearly censored, with some stories that were just blank spaces on the front page. I tried to access one anti-Castro site I knew of and got nothing but 404 errors. Strangely, the computer locked up shortly after that and the person in charge said there was a "technical" issue with that computer. There was a "technical" issue with every computer I used in that hotel after that, using my hotel supplied user ID, so trying to go to an anti-Castro site while in Cuba was probably not a good idea. :-)

There were a few cyber cafes but I saw no evidence of any wi-fi-fi hotspots anywhere in Havana. There may be ones, but I never saw one or even an ad for one. The cyber cafes I did see were for Cubans, and a sign on the door of one said access was restricted to Cuban citizens only. From what I was told by Cubans, access at these cyber cafes are mostly for e-mail and web site access is tightly controlled. The cost is really prohibitive. The sign I saw was the equivalent of $1.50 per hour. That may not sound too bad, but the average Cuban only makes the equivalent of US$20 a month. I'm dubious about our supposed Cuban met because I know that citizen access to the internet is controlled, and it seems even more unlikely to me that a Cuban government employee would be allowed to post at "civilian" web site like WU. Just my use of the term "anti-Castro", in my opinion, would be caught by government filters, and there's only one provider. Posting at work seems unlikely and, even if he was one of the lucky few to have a personal computer, I doubt he'd be able to post here. I hope I'm wrong, since it would be nice to have a Cuban met with us, but I really, really doubt he was for real.

I wish we could somehow resolve our differences with Cuba...but I'm very ignorant about US foreign policy.
BTW sar, you have wundermail...
EDIT: NEVERMIND...I HAD WUNDERMAIL DOH!
1712. EricSFL
Quoting 1705. 7544:


hi do you have a rainbow link like these my ssd link is still flashing lol thanks

Sorry, but I'm also having trouble with the satellite products from the NHC.
In the western Pacific, Typhoon Soulik remains a powerful typhoon as it nears Taiwan. It is expected to remain a strong typhoon when it hits there. Flooding and strong winds are major concerns.

1714. sar2401
Quoting TylerStanfield:

Congratulations Kori, How does it feel to post the 2AM TWO First? lol

Goodnight everyone.

LOL. The 2:00 literally has two words changed from the 8:00. Doesn't sound like boys at the NHC are pputting a lot of heavy duty time analyzing the blob. :-)
1715. 7544
Quoting 1710. sar2401:

None of the rainbow loops seem to be updating or working correctly. It's not just you.
Quoting 1712. EricSFL:

Sorry, but I'm also having trouble with the satellite products from the NHC.


yep its been that like that for 2 days now a fine time to go on a blink lol
1716. Dakster
Quoting 1714. sar2401:

LOL. The 2:00 literally has two words changed from the 8:00. Doesn't sound like boys at the NHC are pputting a lot of heavy duty time analyzing the blob. :-)


Don't say I didn't warn you.
1717. EricSFL
Well, goodnight everyone.
Quoting 1700. sar2401:

Sorry, I'm just catching up here after a busy day. I responded to him in a friendly way but I'm somewhat "dubious" that he was real. I was in Cuba four years ago diving. As an US citizen, it has to be done in kind of a sly manner, since no individual US citizen is allowed to travel to Cuba directly. I went with a tour group through Mexico. Your passport doesn't get stamped in or out of Cuba, and the Mexican "tour group" provided paperwork which showed I spent the entire two weeks in Playa del Carmen.

I was in both Havana and Santiago for a few days. If you stay in a tourista hotel, meaning one that only caters to non-Cubans, there is internet access. You can't just stroll in off the street, however. You get an ID card (kind of like a visa) when you arrive in Cuba, and your passport is held by your hotel or the tour group manager. There's no wi-fi. You use the computers in the business center, and there's no doubt in my mind that your use is monitored. The computers were fairly new Chinese Saiweida brand desktops with 21 inch flat screen monitors running Windows 7. There were something like seven or eight different language options on the computer. I was able to access WU and some financial sites with no problem. Yahoo was clearly censored, with some stories that were just blank spaces on the front page. I tried to access one anti-Castro site I knew of and got nothing but 404 errors. Strangely, the computer locked up shortly after that and the person in charge said there was a "technical" issue with that computer. There was a "technical" issue with every computer I used in that hotel after that, using my hotel supplied user ID, so trying to go to an anti-Castro site while in Cuba was probably not a good idea. :-)

There were a few cyber cafes but I saw no evidence of any wi-fi-fi hotspots anywhere in Havana. There may be ones, but I never saw one or even an ad for one. The cyber cafes I did see were for Cubans, and a sign on the door of one said access was restricted to Cuban citizens only. From what I was told by Cubans, access at these cyber cafes are mostly for e-mail and web site access is tightly controlled. The cost is really prohibitive. The sign I saw was the equivalent of $1.50 per hour. That may not sound too bad, but the average Cuban only makes the equivalent of US$20 a month. I'm dubious about our supposed Cuban met because I know that citizen access to the internet is controlled, and it seems even more unlikely to me that a Cuban government employee would be allowed to post at "civilian" web site like WU. Just my use of the term "anti-Castro", in my opinion, would be caught by government filters, and there's only one provider. Posting at work seems unlikely and, even if he was one of the lucky few to have a personal computer, I doubt he'd be able to post here. I hope I'm wrong, since it would be nice to have a Cuban met with us, but I really, really doubt he was for real.


Like I was saying... "claimed".
There's nary a modeled storm for the East Pacific for the next seven days, either. This truly does look like it's time for me to take a temporary vacation. You know, relax a little. ;)
Quoting 1711. zampaz:

I wish we could somehow resolve our differences with Cuba...but I'm very ignorant about US foreign policy.
BTW sar, you have wundermail...
EDIT: NEVERMIND...I HAD WUNDERMAIL DOH!


It's pretty simple. I'm sure you already know this but...

Cuba is communist state. USA and the government is anti-communism. Also, Cuba (along with USSR) tried to start WW3 in 1962 by accepting Soviet nuclear missiles. Relationship with Cuba will never get better unless Cuba's government turn democracy (which will be awhile). However, Cuba isn't totally hostile to USA as they let Hurricane Hunters fly in Cuban airspace usually as long as it's offshore and hurricane is threatening to Cuban interest.

EDIT: Note to self: need to do better on grammar...
Quoting 1692. KoritheMan:


Not gonna happen. The GFS keeps a ton of zonal flow over the Gulf for the next seven days.
I am also inclined to go with the GFS, it is still the best model out there, but the CMC is slowly but surely coming around and may take the spot of the Euro being the 2nd best soon.
The best I can analyze on the floaters, is that 96L has a decent spin around 23N 78.5W. And that coincides well with the radar imagery out of Miami and Key West (long range loops). It needs to get away from Cuba if it wants to grow up a bit, still too much land interaction. And the upper level winds are still to hostile, albeit easing somewhat.
and on we go
Quoting 1721. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I am also inclined to go with the GFS, it is still the best model out there, but the CMC is slowly but surely coming around and may take the spot of the Euro being the 2nd best soon.


Huh? lol

On what basis do you claim this?
Quoting 1724. KoritheMan:


Huh? lol

On what basis do you claim this?

Probably on the basis that the ECMWF has foreseen one named storm out of eight between the East Pacific and Atlantic this year. CMC has a tendency to develop too much though.

ECMWF still, by far, has the better handle than any of the pattern.
Quoting 1725. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Probably on the basis that the ECMWF has foreseen one named storm out of eight between the East Pacific and Atlantic this year. CMC has a tendency to develop too much though.


ECMWF is still the best in a lot of other areas, the fact that it's piss poor at depicting tropical cyclogenesis notwithstanding.
Quoting 1726. KoritheMan:


ECMWF is still the best in a lot of other areas, the fact that it's piss poor at depicting tropical cyclogenesis notwithstanding.
Are GFS or CMC NOT cyclogenesis models as well, even though they do better?
Quoting 1724. KoritheMan:


Huh? lol

On what basis do you claim this?
Remember Isaac last year? Wasn't it the last model to finally give up on the FL. Panhandle landfall and move it towards NOLA?
Quoting 1727. Bluestorm5:
Are GFS or CMC NOT cyclogenesis models as well, even though they do better?


I don't know enough about intrinsic model algorithms to really say, but to my understanding, the GFS and CMC, like the ECMWF, are considered global models, meaning they run calculations/forecasts on a global scale. Their primary purpose then, would not be to depict cyclogenesis, but to provide global forecasts; modeled forecasts of cyclogenesis would just be an extension of that. I'm not sure why the Euro seems to fall so short relative to the other models when predicting tropical cyclone formation, but I would surmise it has something to do with resolution.

Again, I'm probably not the right guy to answer this, lol. I know how to forecast, but I don't know crap about the specifics of each computer model, barring their very basic functionality and use (ex: I know that the statistical models are based off happenstances of the past, while the dynamical models put out actual forecasts based on real-time data that's integrated into them). Levi's your man here, but I hope that at least made some sense, lol.
Quoting 1728. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Remember Isaac last year? Wasn't it the last model to finally give up on the FL. Panhandle landfall and move it towards NOLA?


The Euro? No, it was the first model to latch onto the Louisiana landfall, when all of the other models kept sending it to Tampa.
Quoting 1729. KoritheMan:


I don't know enough about intrinsic model algorithms to really say, but to my understanding, the GFS and CMC, like the ECMWF, are considered global models, meaning they run calculations/forecasts on a global scale. Their primary purpose then, would not be to depict cyclogenesis, but to provide global forecasts; modeled forecasts of cyclogenesis would just be an extension of that. I'm not sure why the Euro seems to fall so short relative to the other models when predicting tropical cyclone formation, but I would surmise it has something to do with resolution.

Again, I'm probably not the right guy to answer this, lol. I know how to forecast, but I don't know crap about the specifics of each computer model, barring their very basic functionality and use (ex: I know that the statistical models are based off happenstances of the past, while the dynamical models put out actual forecasts based on real-time data that's integrated into them). Levi's your man here, but I hope that at least made some sense, lol.


You are correct.

GFS and CMC are global models. They mainly focus on synoptic scale.

GFDL and HWRF are tropical cyclone models. They are supposed to focus on forecasting intensity and exact track of individual storms.
Quoting 1729. KoritheMan:


I don't know enough about intrinsic model algorithms to really say, but to my understanding, the GFS and CMC, like the ECMWF, are considered global models, meaning they run calculations/forecasts on a global scale. Their primary purpose then, would not be to depict cyclogenesis, but to provide global forecasts; modeled forecasts of cyclogenesis would just be an extension of that. I'm not sure why the Euro seems to fall so short relative to the other models when predicting tropical cyclone formation, but I would surmise it has something to do with resolution.

Again, I'm probably not the right guy to answer this, lol. I know how to forecast, but I don't know crap about the specifics of each computer model, barring their very basic functionality and use (ex: I know that the statistical models are based off happenstances of the past, while the dynamical models put out actual forecasts based on real-time data that's integrated into them). Levi's your man here, but I hope that at least made some sense, lol.


I still got my answer, though. Thanks. Beside, I've already bother Levi enough time on Twitter the past few days, lol. He's going to make a big splash in meteorology world very soon, that's for sure. Hopefully Walmart is going well! CBLs finally went back up today after repairs and updates (Get your crap together, Bentonville...)
Quoting 1731. RTSplayer:

GFDL and HWRF are tropical cyclone models. They are supposed to focus on forecasting intensity and exact track of individual storms.

They suck at it.
Sea South Of Okinawa (near Yaeyama Islands)

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Soulik (955 hPa) located at 23.2N 124.9E has 10 minute sustained winds of 75 knots with gusts of 105 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
80 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
280 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
210 NM from the center in southwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 26.1N 120.2E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) East China Sea
48 HRS: 30.0N 116.0E - Tropical Depression Overland central China
1735. sar2401
Quoting zampaz:

I wish we could somehow resolve our differences with Cuba...but I'm very ignorant about US foreign policy.
BTW sar, you have wundermail...
EDIT: NEVERMIND...I HAD WUNDERMAIL DOH!

Yes, the old crossing e-mail thing. :-) Normalizing relations with Cuba will come, but not before Castro and the rest of the members of the 1959 revolutionary clique die off. The US would actually like to normalize trade relations, for example, but Cuba refuses to do so. On one hand, Cuba is a tropical paradise. OTOH, Cuba is North Korea with palm trees. The current government exercises control of every aspect of Cuban life. My feeling was, in talking with some "regular" Cubans that were willing to talk when no government minders or other tpes of surveillance was present, is that the Communists and Castro supporters would be overwhelmingly defeated in a free election. Obviously, when you're running a dictatorship, that's not a desireable goal. :-)

The Cuban government benefits economically in some ways from it's pervasive control. One example is foreign exchange. In terms of trade, most Cuban goods go to Russia, Mexico, and some other Latin American countries. None of those currencies are considered desireable on the world market. Cuba encourages tourism by having relatively cheap prices for things like hotel rooms and dive trips, but still very much higher than any Cuban could afford to pay. When you're a tourist, there are only two currencies you can use - the US dollar and the Euro. You can only change those currencies into pesos at a very high, government contolled rate. It's illegal to change currencies except at official government exchange centers. In real life, there is thriving black market in dollar exchange carried on by street "banks".

There are two types of pesos, the normal Cuban pseo and what's called the Cuban Convertible Peso. The CCP is what tourists are required to change money into if you use a Cuban bank, and the exchange rate is 1:1, plus a 10% fee. No one in their right mind does this. You bring in as many dollars as you think you can get away with without declaring them. You then change them into normal pesos at a street bank, and the going rate was about 24 pesos to the dollar. You have to change a minimum of $300 into CCP's, and they can't be reexchanged for dollars when you leave, plus they have no value outside Cuba. Tourists are not supposed to use anything but CCP's, and there are no credit cards and very few ATM's, which only dispense CCP's. Cubans are masters at getting around the system. A typical Cuban lunch of a "mixto", a hot sandwhich made with defferent types of cold cuts on delicious Cuban bread, and then pressed and heated on a grill, alog with some chips, which might be potatoes or plantains, and an El Presidente beer or a kind of Cuban coke called a Malta would cost about $5 using CCP's. Not bad, but, as long as you can speak a little Spanish, convince the shop owner you're not an informant, and the exchange can be done discretely, the average I paid was USD$1 for the same meal, and I could have probably paid less if they accepted US coins. If you can convince a shop owner to take normal pesos, which they might do if you pplead you are out of CCP's or dollars, thw same meal would have cost me about 18 pesos, or around 75 cents. It's hard to do this with food, since they have to match up peoos to ration boooks, which all Cubans must use for food. Eeven then, some has a "cousin" with a few extra ration tickets, for a price. It's like this all over Cuba, and an estimate I read was that the underground economy is about eight times larger than the official economy.

Cubans are very friendly and like Americans. They may not like our government, but that's viewed by most Cubans as propaganda. Lord forbid if you're from south Florida, NYC, or Chicago. As soon as a Cuban find this out, he wants to find out if you know Juan, his cousin, Alberto, a high school buddy, or maybe Adriana, a long-lost niece. It's kind of hard to explain to them that most of us don't know our neighbors, let alone Alberto, :-) I enjoyed my trip to Cuba, even though I'm now a Federal criminal and will probaaly be dragged aways as soon as the NSA reads this post. :-8. It's a nice place to visit but, even with my NSA joke, I still wouldn't want to live there.

Good heavens, I've now written a Cuban travel guide. You can tell things are slow in the tropics. I have to make this weather related though, or I might get Taz's threat of the big hammer. OK, let's see...Cuba is always hot and, except then they get the occasional hurricane, living on a boat with a nice sea breeze is very pleasant.
Lets just all agree. NONE of the models are the best. They ALL need to be worked on.
Quoting 1735. sar2401:

Yes, the old crossing e-mail thing. :-) Normalizing relations with Cuba will come, but not before Castro and the rest of the members of the 1959 revolutionary clique die off. The US would actually like to normalize trade relations, for example, but Cuba refuses to do so. On one hand, Cuba is a tropical paradise. OTOH, Cuba is North Korea with palm trees. The current government exercises control of every aspect of Cuban life. My feeling was, in talking with some "regular" Cubans that were willing to talk when no government minders or other tpes of surveillance was present, is that the Communists and Castro supporters would be overwhelmingly defeated in a free election. Obviously, when you're running a dictatorship, that's not a desireable goal. :-)

The Cuban government benefits economically in some ways from it's pervasive control. One example is foreign exchange. In terms of trade, most Cuban goods go to Russia, Mexico, and some other Latin American countries. None of those currencies are considered desireable on the world market. Cuba encourages tourism by having relatively cheap prices for things like hotel rooms and dive trips, but still very much higher than any Cuban could afford to pay. When you're a tourist, there are only two currencies you can use - the US dollar and the Euro. You can only change those currencies into pesos at a very high, government contolled rate. It's illegal to change currencies except at official government exchange centers. In real life, there is thriving black market in dollar exchange carried on by street "banks".

There are two types of pesos, the normal Cuban pseo and what's called the Cuban Convertible Peso. The CCP is what tourists are required to change money into if you use a Cuban bank, and the exchange rate is 1:1, plus a 10% fee. No one in their right mind does this. You bring in as many dollars as you think you can get away with without declaring them. You then change them into normal pesos at a street bank, and the going rate was about 24 pesos to the dollar. You have to change a minimum of $300 into CCP's, and they can't be reexchanged for dollars when you leave, plus they have no value outside Cuba. Tourists are not supposed to use anything but CCP's, and there are no credit cards and very few ATM's, which only dispense CCP's. Cubans are masters at getting around the system. A typical Cuban lunch of a "mixto", a hot sandwhich made with defferent types of cold cuts on delicious Cuban bread, and then pressed and heated on a grill, alog with some chips, which might be potatoes or plantains, and an El Presidente beer or a kind of Cuban coke called a Malta would cost about $5 using CCP's. Not bad, but, as long as you can speak a little Spanish, convince the shop owner you're not an informant, and the exchange can be done discretely, the average I paid was USD$1 for the same meal, and I could have probably paid less if they accepted US coins. If you can convince a shop owner to take normal pesos, which they might do if you pplead you are out of CCP's or dollars, thw same meal would have cost me about 18 pesos, or around 75 cents. It's hard to do this with food, since they have to match up peoos to ration boooks, which all Cubans must use for food. Eeven then, some has a "cousin" with a few extra ration tickets, for a price. It's like this all over Cuba, and an estimate I read was that the underground economy is about eight times larger than the official economy.

Cubans are very friendly and like Americans. They may not like our government, but that's viewed by most Cubans as propaganda. Lord forbid if you're from south Florida, NYC, or Chicago. As soon as a Cuban find this out, he wants to find out if you know Juan, his cousin, Alberto, a high school buddy, or maybe Adriana, a long-lost niece. It's kind of hard to explain to them that most of us don't know our neighbors, let alone Alberto, :-) I enjoyed my trip to Cuba, even though I'm now a Federal criminal and will probaaly be dragged aways as soon as the NSA reads this post. :-8. It's a nice place to visit but, even with my NSA joke, I still wouldn't want to live there.

Good heavens, I've now written a Cuban travel guide. You can tell things are slow in the tropics. I have to make this weather related though, or I might get Taz's threat of the big hammer. OK, let's see...Cuba is always hot and, except then they get the occasional hurricane, living on a boat with a nice sea breeze is very pleasant.


Maybe I will be allow to travel to Cuba when I'm older... at least I'm still young enough so we'll see if Cuba resume normal relationship with USA hopefully when the communists from 1959 revolution finally dies out. You never know if the governments in this world will remain stable (including our own, sadly). Soviet collapse, Arab Spring, and many more had taught us that.
1738. sar2401
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

They suck at it.

Yes, they do. Wasn't the GFS the one that got it right about wanting to kill off Chantal somewhere around Cuba, or am I thinking of another model? I've read posts here that the CMC was the most accurate, but it had hurricanes on both coasts of Florida and a hurricane going onto South Carolina or over Alabama. I can't see how the CMC was close to accurate, unless you look at one isolated run.
Weather burb!
had a Chantal sandwich....wheres the beef?
1741. sar2401
Quoting Bluestorm5:


Maybe I will be allow to travel to Cuba when I'm older... at least I'm still young enough so we'll see if Cuba resume normal relationship with USA hopefully when the communists from 1959 revolution finally dies out. You never know if the governments in this world will remain stable (including our own, sadly). Soviet collapse, Arab Spring, and many more had taught us that.

True but, when normalization does come, you'll be able to get some of the most pristine US cars from the 50's and early 60's available anywhere. The Cuban government has started importing those tiny Fiat 500's and is in negotiationa to buld a plant in Cuba. That has gotten tricker since Fiat basically owns Chrysler, but they'll find away around that. The government is subidizing prices, and the Cuban model looks like nothing you see here. Think cardboard interior door inserts and seats that look like porch swings, but aren't as comfortable. :-) The government wants to get those gas hogs off the street, since the Cubans can longer trade sugar cane ot Russia for oil at favorable rates. All those '57 Chevies are going up on blocks to be preserves, so they can sell the to US car collectors when the trade bans are lifted. Cubans look on it as their version of a 401(k). :-)

Mr. Ghost storm again??
1743. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Weather burb!

Joe, you've got to stop drinking before you post here. :-)
that wouldn"t be no fun : )
Time for a Ambien
1746. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:

Mr. Ghost storm again??

And where is this world's smallest 990mb hurricane suposed to come from and end up Texas and Louisiana in 7.5 day? I've got, it's a remnant of the 993 mb hurricane that was supposed to be over my house on July 4, now reborn again. Ever since everyone got all excited about the CMC being the "go-to" model after its corect calls on Andrea, it has pretty much sucked. Even a blind squirrel will eventually find a nut.
Maybe Chantals ghost will make up her mind for good on what she going to do......lord I hope so, I can only handle blob storms for so long...this storm seems like a month long and it's only been 3-4 days
1748. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Time for a Ambien

There you go. An ambien, maybe a loratab, and a few good stiff drinks and you're ready for bed. :-)
Quoting 1746. sar2401:

Ane where is this worlds smallest 990mb hurricane suposed to come from and end up Texas and Louisiana in 7/5 day? I've got, it's a remnant of the 993 mb hurricane that was supposed to be over my house on July 4, now reborn again. Ever since everyone got all excited about the CMC being the "go-to" model after its corect calls on Andrea, it has pretty much sucked. Even a blind squirrel will eventually find a nut.


Forms from that 1013 mb low by FL.
CHANTAL'S REMNANT

What's left of the tropical storm is now disorganized blobs of clouds and rain from just south of Cuba to the central Bahamas.

Satellite loops show a couple of centers of spin, and one of our main models shows at least a sharp tropical wave if not a "closed low"(fully circular wind circulation, characteristic of tropical depressions and storms) heading toward the coast of the Carolinas by Saturday afternoon with winds not far shy of tropical storm force (39+ mph).

The atmosphere in and around the system will have some aspects marginally supportive of development, and others working against it. The National Hurricane Center as of their latest outlook is giving the system a medium chance of becoming a tropical depression or storm again.

Regardless, deep tropical moisture will be heading for North/South Carolina, Virginia and parts of Georgia, interacting with a non-tropical system and bringing a continued risk of flash flooding as locally heavy rain falls on top of already saturated soil.

That'll bypass Florida to the east, though models are predicting the aforementioned non-tropical system to enhance rainfall in parts of the Panhandle and at least the northern peninsula tomorrow and into the weekend.

Whether or not Chantal's remnants are able to become a tropical depression or storm again, if the onshore winds are anything like what's depicted in the aforementioned model forecast for Saturday, that'd bring increased waves and a high risk of rip currents on a summer weekend to places such as Myrtle Beach and Wrightsville Beach, in the wake of recent rip current fatalities and many rescues on the Southeast and Gulf coasts.
And btw sar2401 thats a 999 mb hurricane.
Hell, Lortab? I'm up to 60mg Extended Release Morphine and 30mg I.R for breakthrough...Lortab was many years ago...lol
1753. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:


Forms from that 1013 mb low by FL.

Wow! Forms from 1013 mb low off the north coast of Cuba and, in a little more tha three days, it has depened to a 999 mb hurricane in TX/AL somewhere. Why wopuldn't the 1014 lor that's sitting in almost the same spot as the rocket-like 990 mb low is supposed to be just deepen and become a hurricane instead of wasting all that energy. :-)

The CMC is clearly nuts again.

We got storms popping up everywhere the next 2 weeks?
Whats the latest on Ex Wannabe Chantal? To the Carolinas or as a wave across S Florida...or ?
1756. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:
And btw sar2401 thats a 999 mb hurricane.

No, no, it was supposed to be a 993mb hurricane. I've been standing outside every morning since July 4 with my plywood and my electric drill, just waiting. The neighbors are starting to laugh. :-)
Quoting 1756. sar2401:

No, no, it was supposed to be a 993mb hurricane. I've been standing outside every morning since July 4 with my plywood and my electric drill, just waiting. The neighbors are starting to laugh. :-)

noooo im talking about the one the CMC just showed. Thats a 999 mb. and Yes it is nuts thats 3 times it said a storm would hit TX. Welll....where are ya hurricane????
Quoting 1756. sar2401:

No, no, it was supposed to be a 993mb hurricane. I've been standing outside every morning since July 4 with my plywood and my electric drill, just waiting. The neighbors are starting to laugh. :-)


Just tell them you are a prepared individual
1759. sar2401
Quoting HurricaneHunterJoe:
Hell, Lortab? I'm up to 60mg Extended Release Morphine and 30mg I.R for breakthrough...Lortab was many years ago...lol

Wowsers! I just put on 30 mg ER morphine and 10 mg hydrocodone for breakthough pain. Living like this really sucks, but I guess it beats the alternatives. :-)
1760. sar2401
Quoting Stormchaser121:

noooo im talking about the one the CMC just showed. Thats a 999 mb. and Yes it is nuts thats 3 times it said a storm would hit TX. Welll....where are ya hurricane????

Oh, that one. No, I'm still waiting for that Big Boy to hit. My neighbor may things I'm bit nuts, but they won't be laughing once the foot is on the other shoe. :-)
Quoting 1760. sar2401:

Oh, that one. No, I'm still waiting for that Big Boy to hit. My neighbor may things I'm bit nuts, but they won't be laughing once the foot is on the other shoe. :-)

I'm beginning to question if the CMC is onto something though...
Lortabs are "happy pills" I take 60mgER X2 AND 30IR for breakthrough. Tried the patch, it worked ok for 2 days, was supposed to wear for 3 days and it fell off all the time. VA docs wanted to put me on methdone,but cant due to cardio issues......I have been through the gamut on pain...numerous epidural,steroid injections, and all the narcotics......but it's better than nothing and helps with the just plain insufferable pain... gives some semblance of a life
On the no go on methadone it was because my QRT was too long like between 400-600 if that makes sense
Someone needs to get their crystal ball working.....this is getting unreal with all these ghost model storms
Quoting 1766. HurricaneHunterJoe:

This hurricane headed to TX forms in the Atlantic where a low is that Levi mentioned. CMC MIGHHHHT be right.
Quoting 1753. sar2401:

Wow! Forms from 1013 mb low off the north coast of Cuba and, in a little more tha three days, it has depened to a 999 mb hurricane in TX/AL somewhere. Why wopuldn't the 1014 lor that's sitting in almost the same spot as the rocket-like 990 mb low is supposed to be just deepen and become a hurricane instead of wasting all that energy. :-)

The CMC is clearly nuts again.



You act like the CMC is forecasting a 949mb hurricane

Yea because a storm cant drop 14mbs with 3 days over the Gulf of Mexico, that has never happened lol
Quoting 1768. Hurricanes101:


You act like the CMC is forecasting a 949mb hurricane

Yea because a storm cant drop 14mbs with 3 days over the Gulf of Mexico, that has never happened lol

Humberto did...
Anyone have one of these?

Still a spin just north of Cuba drifting WNW

Link
Quoting 1770. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone have one of these?

Somebody stole the moon!
Goodnight,,,,lets see where we are in the morning...Hold down the fort!
I really don't think we're going to see any significant ramp up in activity until the end of the month, or more likely the first week of August based on the MJO. The CMC notwithstanding.
Quoting 1774. KoritheMan:
I really don't think we're going to see any significant ramp up in activity until the end of the month, or more likely the first week of August based on the MJO. The CMC notwithstanding.
He's not saying we won't, but it's more likely towards the end/beginning of August...
Quoting 1775. interstatelover7165:
He's not saying we won't, but it's more likely towards the end/beginning of July..
Like ive been saying it will menain quite until the end of august and then alot of shear and dry airr will still be a problem
Quoting 1774. KoritheMan:
I really don't think we're going to see any significant ramp up in activity until the end of the month, or more likely the first week of August based on the MJO. The CMC notwithstanding.

What is the CMC doing?? Levi DID mention that low...headed to the gulf...
1778. LargoFl
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs coffee is perked for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!
1779. LargoFl
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
514 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FLZ039-042-043-048>052-055>057-060>062-065-GMZ830 -850-853-856-870-
873-876-122330-
LEVY-CITRUS-SUMTER-HERNANDO-PASCO-PINELLAS-HILLSB OROUGH-POLK-
MANATEE-HARDEE-HIGHLANDS-SARASOTA-DESOTO-CHARLOTT E-LEE-
TAMPA BAY WATERS-TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 NM-
TARPON SPRINGS TO SUWANNEE RIVER OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
ENGLEWOOD TO TARPON SPRINGS OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
BONITA BEACH TO ENGLEWOOD OUT 20 TO 60 NM-
514 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST
FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
AMPLE MOISTURE WITHIN A DEEP LAYERED SOUTHWEST WIND FLOW COMBINED WITH
DAYTIME HEATING WILL ALLOW SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP OVER WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA
TODAY. SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL INITIALLY DEVELOP ALONG THE GULF
COAST SEA BREEZE THIS MORNING WITH THE SHOWERS AND STORMS THEN MOVING
TOWARD INLAND LOCATIONS FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WHERE
THE BEST COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL RESIDE INTO THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS. STORMS THAT DEVELOP TODAY WILL MOVE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
AS THE STORMS MOVE TO THE NORTHEAST AT 10 TO 15 MPH. IF LIGHTNING
IS OBSERVED OR THUNDER IS HEARD MOVE INDOOR IMMEDIATELY.

...RIVER FLOOD IMPACT...
A RIVER FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE MYAKKA RIVER
AT MYAKKA RIVER STATE PARK. THE MYAKKA RIVER REMAINS ABOVE FLOOD
STAGE AND ANY ADDITIONAL HEAVY RAINFALL COULD CAUSE A FURTHER
RISE IN WATER LEVELS AND MORE PRONOUNCED FLOODING ALONG THE RIVER
TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY.


.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

...THUNDERSTORM IMPACT...
ABUNDANT MOISTURE COMBINED WITH DAYTIME HEATING WILL KEEP RAIN CHANCES
ELEVATED ACROSS ALL OF WEST CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST FLORIDA DURING THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AND THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH SCATTERED
TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED ALONG THE SEA BREEZE
BOUNDARIES EACH DAY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS...GUSTY WINDS...AND FREQUENT LIGHTNING STRIKES
WILL ACCOMPANY THE STORMS AS THEY MOVE TO THE WEST AT 10 TO 15 MPH.
THE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS MAY PRODUCE SOME MINOR FLOODING OF LOW LYING
AND POOR DRAINAGE AREAS AS WELL AS THE PONDING OF WATER ON ROADWAYS.


.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
SPOTTERS ARE REQUESTED TO MONITOR THE WEATHER TODAY AND SELF
ACTIVATE IF NEEDED.


$$

MCMICHAEL
ive been saying it will menain quite until the end of august and then alot of shear and dry airr will still be a problem... i think they will come way down on their 2013 prediction numbers of storms
1781. MPI88
Quoting 1751. Stormchaser121:
And btw sar2401 thats a 999 mb hurricane.


A hurricane with a core pressure of 999mb on the upper Texas Coast? What is the surrounding far-field pressure?

Bonnie (1986) - 995mb - 140kmh winds
Cindy (1963) - 997mb - 120 kmh winds

It seems plausible given climatology.. And the rapid 3-day formation did happen before, albeit usually later in the season.
1782. barbamz
Good morning everyone. Interesting and worrying new article on Spiegel English (climate related in the second part):

Monsters of the Deep: Jellyfish Threaten the World's Seas
By Samiha Shafy, July 11, 2013 %u2013 06:12 PM
Jellyfish infestations along beaches worldwide are troubling tourists and scientists alike. It is a creature that thrives on over-fishing and pollution. But how dangerous is it for the ecosystem?


Webcam of Mainz Cathedral, near to the place where I live. You see:

1. In Germany, we are still enjoying nice summer weather which should stay for a while, already rising concerns about drought and wildfires.

2. Something technical and spectacular is going on with the west tower, and they need the calm weather to do it. If you are interested to find out what it is, have a look at my new blog.

Have a nice Friday, I still have to do some work, so I have to leave for now ...
Quoting 1781. MPI88:


A hurricane with a core pressure of 999mb on the upper Texas Coast? What is the surrounding far-field pressure?

Bonnie (1986) - 995mb - 140kmh winds
Cindy (1963) - 997mb - 120 kmh winds

It seems plausible given climatology.. And the rapid 3-day formation did happen before, albeit usually later in the season.

Hmmm....we will see what happeneds
Yah the low around 27N 55W should be watched. Its heading for warmer water and the high may condense its circulation some when it starts building in. Levi mentioned it on his video analysis last night. I think this is the system the cmc eventually develops in the gulf. The NAM for a few runs now has shown potential development of this low.
Quoting 1784. CaneWatcher1:
Yah the low around 27N 55W should be watched. Its heading for warmer water and the high may condense its circulation some when it starts building in. Levi mentioned it on his video analysis last night. I think this is the system the cmc eventually develops in the gulf. The NAM for a few runs now has shown potential development of this low.


You mean this one?
WOW very trnquill tropics. activity is retricted to the usual flow of tropical waves. none of the reliable models are showing development the next 10 days. now is the time to continue to make preparations for the august/September explosion of anticipated activity. This could be the calm before the storms
Quoting 1786. stoormfury:
WOW very trnquill tropics. activity is retricted to the usual flow of tropical waves. none of the reliable models are showing development the next 10 days. now is the time to continue to make preparations for the august/September explosion of anticipated activity. This could be the calm before the storms
ive been saying it will menain quite until the end of august and then alot of shear and dry airr will still be a problem... i think they will come way down on their 2013 prediction numbers of storms
we are still waiting for all that crazy rain they said we will get from chantal..... and then the remnants of chantal .... i believe we will be sunny with just our usual afternoon t storms
Anyone else's sat from nhc messed up timing wise?
1790. msphar
I see the ghost of the harbinger of doom is laying off the Florida coasts, sneaking North through the Bahamas. Is today the day that we await ?
Good morning all. So far...

Nothing.

Rain? No.
Wind? Nah.

Overcast skies? Well, ok, but it's been like that most of this week [unusual for July, mind you].



If SLU thought Chantal was a non-event in St Lucia, imagine what he'd think here.... lol
Quoting 1778. LargoFl:
Good Morning Folks!..Blogs coffee is perked for when you get here..enjoy..have a great day everyone!
Morning Largo... just getting on the move here. Looking at the satellite I may need to make it snappy, since it looks likely to storm later today.
1793. msphar
I've had problems with the sat image for the last couple of days. I've seen others complain about the same thing.
thought for sure a low was going to be spit out last night. hard to get one in july
1795. LargoFl
Quoting 1794. islander101010:
thought for sure a low was going to be spit out last night. hard to get one in july


I think July will not have any more developments and we will have to wait for early to mid August when the real season begins.
1798. msphar
your prediction is good as I'll be on the boat in Salinas Bay starting next Tuesday. Calm water would be nice
Good morning everybody
1800. LargoFl
1801. flcanes
Quoting 1796. Tropicsweatherpr:


I think July will not have any more developments and we will have to wait for early to mid August when the real season begins.

Hmm. I agree. This may just end up like 2010, just with possibly more storms, stonger storms, and more landfalling hurricanes, especially in the US
1802. flcanes
Quoting 1799. bigwes6844:
yep its normal around this time

August is when the big boys (and girls) should come out for "play".
Quoting 1786. stoormfury:
WOW very trnquill tropics. activity is retricted to the usual flow of tropical waves. none of the reliable models are showing development the next 10 days. now is the time to continue to make preparations for the august/September explosion of anticipated activity. This could be the calm before the storms
yep its normal around this time
Quoting 1799. bigwes6844:
yep its normal around this time

What are your thoughts on this thing...Levi did mention this.
Quoting 1791. BahaHurican:
Good morning all. So far...

Nothing.

Rain? No.
Wind? Nah.

Overcast skies? Well, ok, but it's been like that most of this week [unusual for July, mind you].



If SLU thought Chantal was a non-event in St Lucia, imagine what he'd think here.... lol
Good morning. Forecast here yesterday said 60-70% chance of t-storms and today said 90% chance.b I think we will be lucky to get a little drizzle since the system looks fairly dried out now.
Quoting 1804. Stormchaser121:

What are your thoughts on this thing...Levi did mention this.
I believe it could happen with low shear in the gulf and the front that may not make it to the gulf it looks about right. Well have to wait and see but thats mighty close to me i see.
Typhoon Soulik now on Taiwan Radar.


Link

Also on Miyakojima/Yaeyama Radar

Link

Table of Hourly Weather Observations
12 July 2013
Ishigakijima
Currently 964.6hPa
Link
1808. flcanes
Quoting 1804. Stormchaser121:

What are your thoughts on this thing...Levi did mention this.

Well its possible, but if chantal develops i dont know if it will really get that strong. Remember earlier this year before chantal developed, when the CMC showed a TS in the gulf and a hurricane on the east coast in the same run?
1809. jeebsa

Good morning from Martin County Fl.
Taipei Cam
Quoting 1804. Stormchaser121:

What are your thoughts on this thing...Levi did mention this.

Where in TX do you live??
Quoting 1811. Stormchaser121:

Where in TX do you live??
i guess that was for me im in new orleans
Quoting 1812. bigwes6844:
i guess that was for me im in new orleans

Haha it was i made a mistake there. I live in southeast TX.
models crying wolf again. sorry goldie lox your on your own,. whats left of the spin last night still shows up on twc. shot. going to listen to their tropical update and see what they say.
10% and recon canceled. Next!


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT
ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL...IS MOVING
NORTHWARD. THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND
DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW
CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS. THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR
TODAY WILL BE CANCELLED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting 1813. Stormchaser121:

Haha it was i made a mistake there. I live in southeast TX.
oh okay so u and athomeintx not that far from each other sweet!
Quoting 1816. bigwes6844:
oh okay so u and athomeintx not that far from each other sweet!

Thats right! I wonder if its correct...thats twice now the CMC said this same thing.
Good morning, Link WV Loop
...makes you go hmmmm

nuthin yet
1820. pcola57
Jet Stream Analysis..





1821. pcola57
Quoting 1819. Chicklit:
Link WV Loop EAUS


Morning Chicklit..
Thats alot of dry air heading due South to the GOM..
Interesting..
Recon into ex Chantal canceled.
Down to 10%
8AM Tropical Weather Discussion NHC
1823. MahFL
Looks like the coc is directly south of the peninsular.

Quoting 1821. pcola57:


Morning Chicklit..
Thats alot of dry air heading due South to the GOM..
Interesting..

Like a lead balloon.
Despite what the models "say", Africa looks interesting today:

africa
Quoting 1820. pcola57:
Jet Stream Analysis..






Whats your thinking on all that...?
1827. pcola57
What a mess Ex-Chantal is this morning..

1828. pcola57
Quoting 1826. Stormchaser121:

Whats your thinking on all that...?


Looks to be alot of blocking and stalling weather coming up IMO..

Wet,Dry,Stormy,Drought,The whole mixed bag..
wind shear going up!!
Quoting 1827. pcola57:
What a mess Ex-Chantal is this morning..



She's dead.
Good Morning Everyone! Another GORGEOUS morning up here in Southern Illinois. The sun has come up within the past hour upon clear skies. Not a single cloud in the sky and beautiful. :)

Natalie

1832. ncstorm
Good Morning all..I dont know when the last time I have seen most of SE NC/SC under a flood warning or watch..



Quoting 1832. ncstorm:
Good Morning all..I dont know when the last time I have seen most of SE NC/SC under a flood warning or watch..


Usually it's just the low country areas or the Piedmont but it looks like mega real estate is covered here. I am so JEALOUS. I love my sun but I can always use some rain. :)

Nat
Quoting 1822. Chicklit:
Recon into ex Chantal canceled.
Down to 10%
8AM Tropical Weather Discussion NHC


Levi nailed it in his tidbits yesterday. If anything this remnant will head north and give Florida/Ga/SC a good soaking- not to mention the Bahamas.
1836. ncstorm
Quoting 1833. SouthernIllinois:

Usually it's just the low country areas or the Piedmont but it looks like mega real estate is covered here. I am so JEALOUS. I love my sun but I can always use some rain. :)

Nat


even if ex chantal doesn't reform into anything, it still is more rain and thats something we dont need..I really hope this situation doesn't turn into another ex nicole of 2010.
Quoting 1831. SouthernIllinois:
Good Morning Everyone! Another GORGEOUS morning up here in Southern Illinois. The sun has come up within the past hour upon clear skies. Not a single cloud in the sky and beautiful. :)

Natalie



We would sure like it if you sent some of that weather to the Southeast, we've had enough rain for a while.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI JUL 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. THE AREA OF DISTURBED WEATHER OVER THE BAHAMAS AND THE ADJACENT ATLANTIC...ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF CHANTAL...IS MOVING NORTHWARD. THIS WEATHER DISTURBANCE REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND DEVELOPMENT HAS BECOME LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...10 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. THE AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE MISSION SCHEDULED FOR TODAY WILL BE CANCELLED.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Here we go again...

The Circle Game
1840. SLU
Quoting 1791. BahaHurican:
Good morning all. So far...

Nothing.

Rain? No.
Wind? Nah.

Overcast skies? Well, ok, but it's been like that most of this week [unusual for July, mind you].



If SLU thought Chantal was a non-event in St Lucia, imagine what he'd think here.... lol


LOL
Quoting 1837. 69Viking:


We would sure like it if you sent some of that weather to the Southeast, we've had enough rain for a while.

Fair enough. I'm on it right now!!
Quoting 1837. 69Viking:


We would sure like it if you sent some of that weather to the Southeast, we've had enough rain for a while.


checked your WU mailbox?
Quoting 1836. ncstorm:


even if ex chantal doesn't reform into anything, it still is more rain and thats something we dont need..I really hope this situation doesn't turn into another ex nicole of 2010.

Oh my. I remember Nicole. I remember in some parts of the low country of NC receiving upwards of 15" of rain. Yeah no one wants to go there again!
Now playing in theaters...Ghost 2 starring CMC
Umm... is anybody paying attention to the swirl that is about up half way off the eastern Florida Coast. That was the northern part of Chantal's "guts" and it seems to be wrapping convection around it's southern side. You can see it in the visible sat. picture on the last few frames.
Quoting 1835. Chicklit:


The sal for the most part has subsided compared to the past couple of weeks.
Quoting 1842. indianrivguy:


checked your WU mailbox?


I have now, thanks!
Morning/evening all!

Quoting 1831. SouthernIllinois:
Good Morning Everyone! Another GORGEOUS morning up here in Southern Illinois. The sun has come up within the past hour upon clear skies. Not a single cloud in the sky and beautiful. :)

Natalie



Not too shabby here either. :)

1849. pcola57
Quoting 1842. indianrivguy:


checked your WU mailbox?


Morning Marty..
Just a quick note..
I was able to check out your Facebook page yesterday..
It is awesome..
I may join again in the future..
Losts of pertinent info on your page..
You take a "perty" pic too.. Lol.. :)
Quoting indianrivguy:


checked your WU mailbox?

You have WU-mail though :-)
seems like we have a new INVEST from noaa in the E Pac


12/1145 UTC 10.6N 89.9W T1.0/1.0 INVEST -- East Pacific


Quoting 1849. pcola57:


Morning Marty..
Just a quick note..
I was able to check out your Facebook page yesterday..
It is awesome..
I may join again in the future..
Losts of pertinent info on your page..
You take a "perty" pic too.. Lol.. :)


Thank you for the kind words.. say, when was the last time you had your eyes checked?
1853. hydrus
When they say the rich keep getting richer, they mean it. The number of billionaires has tripled in the past thirteen years..
Year Number of billionaires Group's combined net worth
2013 1,426 $5.4 trillion
2012 1,226 $4.6 trillion
2011 1,210 $4.5 trillion
2010 1,011 $3.6 trillion
2009 793 $2.4 trillion
2008 1,125 $4.4 trillion
2007 946 $3.5 trillion
2006 793 $2.6 trillion
2005 691 $2.2 trillion
2004 587 $1.9 trillion
2003 476 $1.4 trillion
2002 497 $1.5 trillion
2001 538 $1.8 trillion
2000 470 $898 billion
1854. flcanes
Back from lurking!
Anyways, it appears our remnants of chantal are almost dead. All right, Dorian, your next.
1855. pcola57
Quoting 1852. indianrivguy:


Thank you for the kind words.. say, when was the last time you had your eyes checked?


LOL..
I go next Wednesday.. :)
new invest in epac means its less likely for one in the nw carib
1857. ncstorm
from the NWS, Wilmington, NC

THE PLAUSIBLE
LOOKING WRF HOWEVER DRAWS UP THE BLOB OF CONVECTION ASSOC WITH
FORMER CHANTAL UP THE FL EAST COAST AND INTO SRN SC COAST BY SAT.
WHILE NOT A DIRECT `LANDFALL` VERY CLOSE TO OUR AREA THIS TRACK
WOULD FOCUS MOISTURE ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL JETTING INTO MOST OF
THE REGION BUT MOSTLY SC ZONES. ON ONE END OF THE SPECTRUM THE GFS
DOES NOT PORTRAY THE SYSTEM AT ALL WHILE THE CGEM RESTRENGTHENS IT
AND SMASHES IT INTO THE CAPE FEAR REGION MIDDAY SAT. BOTH OF THESE
EXTREMES PROB UNLIKELY AND THE WRF A SEEMING GOOD COMPROMISE AT THIS
TIME. DESPITE THE AFOREMENTIONED `MISS` THE TROPICAL NATURE OF THE
MOISTURE SHOULD STILL EXCEED MODEL GUIDANCE AND QPF FCST HAS BEEN
RAISED AND HEAVY RAINFALL POSS PUT INTO WX GRIDS AND MENTIONED IN
HWO.
Quoting indianrivguy:


Thank you for the kind words.. say, when was the last time you had your eyes checked?


Don't sell yourself short mate, you're not bad for an older guy. I hope I even reach your age with all these different drugs/medication I have taken.
Quoting 1856. islander101010:
new invest in epac means its less likely for one in the nw carib




seems like the E pac has been geting all the fun so far this year
Good Morning Folks. Good time to take a break over the next several days and ponder what the rest of the season might bring. Perhaps another storm before the end of July (from where I have no idea) then a big uptick in viable waves in August.

The game plan from the NOAA Mariners Guide and other NHC/NOAA publications:

Each hurricane season approximately 60 of these waves cross the tropical North Atlantic. Although the majority of these waves pass through the basin without any significant tropical cyclone development, passage of these waves is often accompanied by squally weather with brief periods of higher sustained winds.


NHC began publically issuing categorical 48-h genesis forecasts in 2008 and began including the specific percentage in 2010

Probabilities contained in the text and graphical Tropical Weather Outlook (TWO) products issued 4 times daily (00, 06, 12, 18 UTC) along with special outlooks issued as needed

Probability of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours for individual disturbances

Based on analysis of current state of the atmosphere, satellite imagery, and model output</em>
1861. hydrus
Quoting 1856. islander101010:
new invest in epac means its less likely for one in the nw carib
True..The West Caribbean still has a shot tho..Good morning.
Quoting 1858. AussieStorm:


Don't sell yourself short mate, you're not bad for an older guy. I hope I even reach your age with all these different drugs/medication I have taken.


I went through some nightmares myself Aussie.. dang Veterans Administration nearly killed me twice with prescribed medicines...
1863. 62901IL
SPC! NHC! GOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!
Keep a eye on the gulf
Quoting 1853. hydrus:
When they say the rich keep getting richer, they mean it. The number of billionaires has tripled in the past thirteen years..
Year Number of billionaires Group's combined net worth
2013 1,426 $5.4 trillion
2012 1,226 $4.6 trillion
2011 1,210 $4.5 trillion
2010 1,011 $3.6 trillion
2009 793 $2.4 trillion
2008 1,125 $4.4 trillion
2007 946 $3.5 trillion
2006 793 $2.6 trillion
2005 691 $2.2 trillion
2004 587 $1.9 trillion
2003 476 $1.4 trillion
2002 497 $1.5 trillion
2001 538 $1.8 trillion
2000 470 $898 billion

inflation
1866. hydrus
Quoting 1862. indianrivguy:


I went through some nightmares myself Aussie.. dang Veterans Administration nearly killed me twice with prescribed medicines...
I have had a couple of close calls. I am allergic to just about every pain med except aspirin and ibuprofen.
SSD floater has invest in EPAC without number.

Link
yep i had a great forecast for ex 97 calling for no development for days but seeing it move into the western gulf thats when i changed to a more bullish forecast. big mistake and what ticks me off i knew the chances are limited because there was a cane in the epac. learn from my mistakes. wth its just a hobby anyway.
1869. pcola57
Thats a very large area of dry air heading to the GOM..
Wonder what that will due to the supposed prediction of wet GOM from Ex-Chantal..
I see SST's going up when this gets to the GOM as well..








1870. hydrus
Quoting 1865. PortoJuan:

inflation
More like hyperinflation.
Quoting 1868. islander101010:

yep i had a great forecast for ex 97 calling for no development for days but seeing it move into the western gulf thats when i changed to a more bullish forecast. big mistake and what ticks me off i knew the chances were limited because there was a cane in the epac. learn from my mistakes. wth its just a hobby anyway.
1872. hydrus
Quoting 1869. pcola57:
Thats a very large area of dry air heading to the GOM..
Wonder what that will due to the supposed prediction of wet GOM from Ex-Chantal..
I see SST's going up when this gets to the GOM as well..








I do not believe much of the dry air you see will make into the gulf....I could be wrong tho, the weather has been strange to say the least.
Upper low in the Atlantic looks to be the biggest threat for development in the short term. It should have a better chance than the last one as well. We'll see.

1874. pcola57
Quoting 1872. hydrus:
I do not believe much of the dry air you see will make into the gulf....I could be wrong tho, the weather has been strange to say the least.


You could be right hydrus..
But it's getting close now..



the next tropical wave to watch with a spin to it!!
1876. hydrus
Quoting 1873. MississippiWx:
Upper low in the Atlantic looks to be the biggest threat for development in the short term. It should have a better chance than the last one as well. We'll see.

I agree. It has a few things going for it..Th Bermuda High being one of them.
Quoting islander101010:
yep i had a great forecast for ex 97 calling for no development for days but seeing it move into the western gulf thats when i changed to a more bullish forecast. big mistake and what ticks me off i knew the chances are limited because there was a cane in the epac. learn from my mistakes. wth its just a hobby anyway.

ex-97?? Have we reached it yet?
Is wondering if being the only circulation out there if storms will be able to wrap around the spin over the Fl keys.
1879. hydrus
Quoting 1809. jeebsa:

Good morning from Martin County Fl.


Good morning from Jensen Beach!
It's a Sharknado man.

Lol.

Television keeps getting worse and worse. I can't believe we actually pay for this stuff.

Well, actually, we don't pay for this crap, but that's what the networks put on. They promise 4 star quality and deliver a negative star quality: Something worth less than nothing.

Next up:

Leprechano. That's right, a volcano that pops up under your bed and shoots burning Leprechauns made of rock! Tough Luck.
Let's see what else is going on...

1883. etxwx
Good morning, day and evening to all. Just a quick note on the continued flooding in China then I gotta run. It's a mess over there.


Rescuers race against time to evacuate people as floods continue to sweep through Guanghan, Southwest China's Sichuan province, on Thursday. [Photo/China Daily]

Lifesaving top priority, premier says
2013-07-12 By HUANG ZHILING ( China Daily)
Floods and landslides have affected about 3.73 million people in 17 provincial-level regions, forcing the evacuation of 212,000 residents, the Ministry of Civil Affairs said. Rainstorms have destroyed more than 8,400 houses and damaged another 113,000, causing direct economic losses of 8.56 billion yuan ($1.4 billion), according to the ministry.
Quoting 1880. indianrivguy:


Good morning from Jensen Beach!


Good Morning, Marty!

Enjoy the sun before the boomers begin!
Quoting 1876. hydrus:
I agree. It has a few things going for it..Th Bermuda High being one of them.


It already has a decent reflection at the 850mb level, something the last upper low never really had.

Quoting 1877. AussieStorm:

ex-97?? Have we reached it yet?



Nop not yet I think he ment ex 96L wish we have reached
Quoting 1884. rmbjoe1954:


Good Morning, Marty!

Enjoy the sun before the boomers begin!


Good morning Joe! I'm supposed to be going out for an oyster restoration with Congressman Murphy, and SLC Commissioner Chris Dzadovsky tomorrow.. talk about worrying about weather.......
1888. hydrus
1889. hydrus
Quoting 1885. MississippiWx:


It already has a decent reflection at the 850mb level, something the last upper low never really had.

It is also pooling moisture in the center. Which means the air within the system is warming.
Quoting 1879. hydrus:

Whoa Baby! Some nice totals lining up for the higher elevations in Colorado where they desperately need it. Sure hope this forecast comes to fruition. :)

Nat
I. Saw it 1st
Quoting 1891. Tazmanian:
I. Saw it 1st


of course you did.. that geezer Grothar is probably still sleeping.. snooze ya looze :)

he'll prolly tell us he saw it in a dream...
Quoting 1892. indianrivguy:


of course you did.. that geezer Grothar is probably still sleeping.. snooze ya looze :)

he'll prolly tell us he saw it in a dream...




LOL
1894. hydrus
1895. hydrus
Good morning, good afternoon and good evening, everyone. A very humid 75 degrees this morning. I thought I'd mow the back yard while it's still 'cool', but stepped outside with the dogs and decided that wasn't a good idea; I felt like I was swimming as I headed to stand in the shade under the large pine tree in the middle of the front yard.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: scrambled egg spinach casserole, breakfast pizza, filled croissants, apple and raisin strudel, poached eggs with a spinach sauté, Italian sausage, fried lean ham, fresh fruit, yogurt, cappuccino, regular and decaf coffee. Enjoy!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Good morning all, got right at 3 inches of sky juice yesterday afternoon in about an hour. A tad muggy this morning, waiting on that dry air. Have a great Friday
Quoting 1887. indianrivguy:


Good morning Joe! I'm supposed to be going out for an oyster restoration with Congressman Murphy, and SLC Commissioner Chris Dzadovsky tomorrow.. talk about worrying about weather.......


Chris sits on the Indian River lagoon National Estuary Program Advisory Committee. Rep. Murphy appears to be willing to battle Big Sugar to stop Lake O releases. The lagoon must be saved.
1900. hydrus
The 5 day RUC does have low pressure heading towards Florida and lingering. There is blocking to the north, which means the S.E.U.S stays wet. Also notice all the highs over our part of the world, and all the lows over the continent of Asia.

1901. sar2401
Quoting hydrus:
I do not believe much of the dry air you see will make into the gulf....I could be wrong tho, the weather has been strange to say the least.

I'm with PCola on this one. Dewpoints in north Alabama are already 10 degrees lower than yesterday, and the drier airis making progress south. Since it's Alabama in summer, we're not going to have temps fall in the 70's during the dday but it looks like we will have at least a few days of tolerable humidity and sunny weather. The leading edge of our "not as hot" front is already visible as a line of showers advancing into the Gulf.
1902. Matt74
Quoting 1804. Stormchaser121:

What are your thoughts on this thing...Levi did mention this.
probably won't happen but isn't 999 mb a cat 1?
1903. vis0
Quoting 1770. HurricaneHunterJoe:
Anyone have one of these?

Yes i have, but i put it up at the pawn shop just to cash up for a sure winner in race #3. When i went back to get it, in under an hour & every time from then on i go to the shop the guy somehow knows i'm coming and jacks up the price.
ONE more look at CHANTAL(s). Photo/Image provided
courtesy of the Naval Research Laboratory
Monterey.(minus the Zillies)