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Central U.S. Dousing on Tap; Heavy Spring Snow in CO, WY

By: Bob Henson 5:52 PM GMT on April 15, 2016

Soon to be abandoned by the jet stream, a strong upper-level low will park near the Four Corners this weekend, pulling in a rich moisture feed from Texas to Nebraska that will dump near-record April rain on the High Plains and tree-challenging wet snow along the Colorado/Wyoming Front Range. The upper low will be marooned for several days near Colorado, which will prolong the precipitation event and lead to some truly impressive totals.

As of midday Friday, winter storm warnings encompassed most of the Colorado high country as well as the urban corridor from near Colorado Springs, CO, to Cheyenne, WY. Snowfall totals predicted by the NWS through Sunday range from 8” - 14” in Denver and 6" - 12” in Cheyenne to a whopping two to four feet in the mountains and foothills just west of Denver, including areas within a few miles of Boulder. The biggest impact may be on local trees, many of which are now flowering and leafing out. The heavy, protracted snowfall is likely to break countless limbs and bring down many power lines. Streets and soil are quite warm around Denver after temperatures soared into the 70s on Thursday; between this and high-angle sunlight filtering through, there may be enough melting to keep snowfall on the ground and on highways well below the totals gleaned from snow measuring boards. Even so, a dense, slushy mess is like to impede travel thoughout the weekend.


Figure 1. WunderMap of projected flow at 300 mb (about 30,000 feet) from the 06Z Friday run of the GFS model, valid for 00Z Sunday (8:00 pm EDT) on April 17, 2016, shows the highly meridional (north-south) configuration of the jet stream, with the upper low near Four Corners largely cut off from the jet.


Figure 2. Precipitable water—the amount of moisture in the atmosphere available for producing rain or snow—will be at extremely high values for the location and season over the central High Plains by 18Z (2:00 pm EDT) Saturday, April 16, 2016. Areas of blue represent precipitable water 4 to 5 standard deviations above average. Also shown are surface highs and lows and winds at the 850-mb level, about a mile above sea level. This projection is from the 06Z Friday run of the GFS model. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

An April snow to remember
Cut-off upper lows near the Four Corners are the most common set-up for heavy snow in the Denver area, especially in autumn and spring. The biggest snows in Boulder are several times more likely during El Niño than La Niña. However, a weak La Niña was in place 95 years ago this weekend, when a similar but stronger cut-off low led to the heaviest official 24-hour snowfall in U.S. records: 75.8”, recorded on April 14-15, 1921, at Silver Lake, about 30 miles west of Boulder at an elevation near 10,000 feet. The observer on site reported a total of 95 inches in just 48 hours, according to a Monthly Weather Review analysis cited in a Wasatch Weather Weenies blog post. (Another contender for top 24-hour snowfall is the 78” recorded at Mile 47 Camp, Alaska, on Feb. 7, 1963, according to WU weather historian Christopher Burt).


Figure 3. The snowstorm of March 17 - 19, 2003, was the most intense to strike the Denver area in over 80 years. In some parts of the Rocky Mountain foothills west of Boulder, more than 80 inches (two meters) of snow fell. This photo was taken near Nederland. Image credit: Carlye Calvin/ UCAR Image and Multimedia Gallery.

High Plains drencher
Not to be outdone by the Colorado snow, a strip from western Nebraska to northern Texas will see torrential rain over the weekend. The amount of precipitable water available for rain or snow will be close to record values for so early in the year across the central High Plains (above 1” at North Platte, NE, for example). The NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center is calling for widespread rains topping 4-5” by early next week from northern Nebraska to the Texas coast between Friday and Wednesday (see Figure 4). The projected maximum of about 7.5” close to North Platte would break the April precipitation record of 7.10” set in 1915. It would also be more than a third of the city’s typical yearly precipitation (20.19”).

While not as dramatic next to climatology, similar amounts could fall in localized areas toward western Oklahoma and northern Texas. Flood watches are in effect for parts of this area, but overall the moisture should be quite welcome. The CO/WY/NE area is already running well above average in precipitation for the year thus far; in contrast, much of the Southern Plains has seen less than half of its annual average to date (see Figure 5). This is part of a large dry swath--unusual for an El Niño spring--that extends westward all the way to southern California. As of Thursday, Los Angeles had seen less than half of its average precipitation for April (0.24”, vs. average of 0.51”) and little more than half for the water year since October 1 (5.80”, vs. average of 9.86”). Some parts of the area have done better, but overall the 2015-16 El Niño has been a major disappointment for the southern third of California.



Figure 4. Projected 5-day precipitation totals (rainfall and melted snow equivalent) from 12Z (8:00 am EDT) Friday, April 15, 2016, through Wednesday, April 20, 2016. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Weather Prediction Center.


Figure 5. Precipitation for 2016 through April 14 as a percentage of the annual average up to that point. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service.

Severe weather threat over the Southern Plains this weekend
NOAA’s Storm Prediction Center has an enhanced-risk area extending across the central and southern High Plains on Friday, with a slight-risk zone over West Texas on Saturday and South Texas on Sunday. The bulk of the threat on Friday will be large hail, although tornadic storms may develop if the moisture surge from the south is especially robust. After a busy start to the 2016 tornado season in February and March, the pace has slackened in recent weeks, bringing the annual total closer to the long-term average (Figure 6).

Stay safe and have a great weekend, everyone!

Bob


Figure 6. Cumulative tornado counts for 2016 (black) against the distribution of high and low tornado counts for various other years. On each given day, the red curve represents the highest annual total up to that point in records going back to 1950, with the magenta curve showing the lowest total and the green curve showing the median value. The totals have been “inflation-adjusted” to remove the effects of increased tornado observing in recent decades. Image credit: NOAA/NWS Storm Prediction Center.

Winter Weather Extreme Weather Severe Weather

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Guess I won't complain about the predicted 4-5" south of Houston.
Dosen't have to be a Cat 5, as Houston was wrecked with massive flooding as well as parts of Se La too from TS Allison in 2001. And it remains the only Atlantic Tropical Storm name to have been retired.



I also note Cat 1 Isaac in 2012 here as the flood protection held for 2 days easily, but the areas outside to the Nwest,Laplace suffered massive flooding and South of Nola, Braithwaite were devastated by surge flooding.

Thanks Mr. Henson; this scenario begs the question whether we are going to see more of these Spring cut-off lows propagate over/near the US due to certain jet stream patterns. These pending systems you describe seem close to the recent cut-off low that meandered in place over Mexico and which flooded the lower MS Valley region a few weeks ago and which was characterized as quite an anomaly. Here are the current positions of the ULLs over the US, current flow, and jet configuration:





One hardly ever see's one from Pago Pago, AS




College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.

No severe warnings in past 3 hours


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

FLASH FLOOD WARNING PAGO PAGO AS - NSTU 518 AM SST FRI APR 15 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 652 AM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

NASA GISS have now reported that March was +1.28C warmer than 1951-1980 period. And that means that we now have had two months in a row with temp anomalies above +1,5C from pre-industrial values.
well there goes my comments contents (no more than 5 inches via NWS of yesterdays update) on Dr. Masters previous blogbyte here direct link to that comment.(pg. loads fully its auto-scrolled to cmmnt) Thank you for the update, anyone noticing a pattern where instead of rain rain a bit dry rain a bit dry.
Its now rain, rain, rain, rain ... dry, dry ,dry, dry**

What members  barbamz, pablosyn, redplaza, others previewed by taking their valued time to present what is happening worldwide is now coming to a theater near you... in TRUE 3D and FAH-REE (unless you consider pain and death costly, i do)


**change extreme condition to whatever you experiences as Hail, Hail, Hail, or flood, floods, floods...you think this is bad Nature is still trying to balance things out this is not even on top of the going to be warmer constantly climate.
We Just Crushed The Global Record For Hottest Start Of Any Year

NASA reports that this was the hottest three-month start (January to March) of any year on record. It beat the previous record — just set in 2015 — by a stunning 0.7°F (0.39°C). Normally, such multi-month records are measured in the hundredths of a degree

Last month was the hottest February on record by far. It followed the hottest January on record by far, which followed the hottest December by far, which followed the hottest November on record by far, which followed the hottest October on record by far. Some may detect a pattern here.

We reported two weeks ago that “Last Month Was The Hottest March In The Global Satellite Record.” It was also the hottest March on record — by far — in the dataset of the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA), as the World Meteorological Organization tweeted Thursday.


Link




MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0382
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0109 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN FLORIDA
PENINSULA

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 151809Z - 152045Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...40 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THERE IS GROWING CONCERN THAT INITIAL SVR-TSTM DEVELOPMENT
COULD BE UNDERWAY BY 19-20Z...WITH GREATER POTENTIAL IN THE 21-00Z
TIME FRAME. LARGE HAIL...POTENTIALLY REACHING THE SIZE OF
GOLFBALLS...AND STRONG WIND GUSTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. THE AREA WILL BE
MONITORED FOR POSSIBLE SVR TSTM WATCH ISSUANCE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON.

DISCUSSION...INLAND DESTABILIZATION IS ONGOING DESPITE AREAS OF
ANVIL CIRRUS CAST DOWNSTREAM OF ERN-GULF CONVECTIVE CLUSTERS
EVOLVING IN THE LEFT-EXIT REGION OF A HIGH-LEVEL SPEED MAX. THE
TRANSLUCENT NATURE OF A GEOGRAPHIC SUBSET OF THIS CIRRUS IS
PERMITTING RELATIVELY ENHANCED INSOLATION OVER THE ERN HALF OF THE
FL PENINSULA TO THE S OF A DIFFUSE FRONT ANALYZED FROM SARASOTA TO
VERO BEACH.

MODIFICATIONS TO THE 12Z MIA RAOB TO ACCOUNT FOR STEEPENING
LOW-LEVEL LAPSE RATES AMIDST UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS SUGGESTS MLCAPE ON
THE ORDER OF 2000-2500 J/KG...AIDED BY STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE RATES
ACCOMPANYING AN EML PLUME. COLD H5 TEMPERATURES AROUND -13C ARE
ASSOCIATED WITH SUBSTANTIAL BUOYANCY IN THE MID LEVELS BASED ON THE
MODIFIED RAOB. THE LARGE CAPE DENSITY...WHEN COMBINED WITH
RELATIVELY LONG/STRAIGHT HODOGRAPHS SAMPLED BY THE MIAMI VWP...WILL
SUPPORT CONDITIONAL POTENTIAL FOR SPLITTING SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE
HAIL. HAIL FROM QUARTER TO GOLFBALL SIZE WILL BE POSSIBLE...GIVEN
AROUND 30-45 KT OF EFFECTIVE BULK SHEAR...AND LOCALLY STRONG WIND
GUSTS MAY ALSO OCCUR.

HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE IN SVR COVERAGE IS LIMITED OWING TO ONLY MODEST
DEEP ASCENT...ESPECIALLY AS LOW-LEVEL FLOW REMAINS WEAK AND THE
AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY REMAINS DIFFUSE. MULTIPLE FOCI FOR INCIPIENT
DEEPER CONVECTION EXIST...WHILE ASCENT RELATED TO THE SPEED MAX
CROSSES THE AREA: /1/ A VISIBLE SATELLITE LOOP REVEALS AGITATED
CUMULUS GROWTH ALONG THE EAST-COAST SEA-BREEZE BOUNDARY AND NEAR THE
INTERSECTION OF OUTFLOW RELATED TO CONVECTION OFF THE ATLANTIC COAST
AND THE DIFFUSE FRONT.../2/ ALONG A N/S CONFLUENCE AXIS ANALYZED
NEAR/S OF LAKE OKEECHOBEE.../3/ FARTHER W ALONG THE DIFFUSE
BOUNDARY...AND /4/ INVOF BAROCLINIC CIRCULATIONS ON THE ERN
PERIPHERY OF THICKER ANVIL. IN EACH OF THESE CASES...ASCENT IS
LIMITED...YIELDING UNCERTAINTY IN THE COVERAGE OF THE SVR RISK THIS
AFTERNOON.

REGARDLESS...GIVEN LIMITED RESIDUAL MLCINH BASED ON THE MODIFIED 12Z
MFL RAOB... CONVECTIVE INTENSIFICATION AND AN INCREASING SVR RISK
COULD OCCUR DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS. HOWEVER...A GREATER
RISK FOR SVR HAIL AND POSSIBLY SVR WIND WOULD EXIST LATER IN THE
AFTERNOON -- PARTICULARLY INVOF LAKE OKEECHOBEE EWD TOWARD VERO
BEACH AND SWD TOWARD THE MIAMI AND FORT LAUDERDALE AREAS.
New even larger earthquake plus several big aftershocks Kumamoto Japan, Tsunami warning lifted though.
http://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-36059487
NASA smacks down climate change doubters in Facebook discussion

In many online forums involving climate change science, the discussions are frequently hijacked by doubters making the same tired, debunked arguments. On Tuesday, NASA was having none of it.

When doubters began polluting a thread started by Bill Nye “The Science Guy” about his rejected attempt to place a bet about global warming, the Facebook account “NASA Climate Change” decided to pounce.


Link
No doubt RobertWC... I am feeling it first hand. My neighbors who have been here for a long time all telling me how anomalous all this is.

It sure is hot here in AK.... Hitting 60F's during the day at the house thermometer... Although there is still a little snow at the tops of the mountains by my house that every year do become mostly snow free. They are 'small' by Alaska standards and monsters by Florida standards...

Having to use the AC in April in Anchorage, AK is way way weird. The inside of the house will hit 80F if I don't open a window and the vehicles we drive we keep at 70F and the AC is needed to maintain that temp.
Thanks for the Updates Mr. Henson....
Quoting 13. RobertWC:

NASA smacks down climate change doubters in Facebook discussion

In many online forums involving climate change science, the discussions are frequently hijacked by doubters making the same tired, debunked arguments. On Tuesday, NASA was having none of it.

When doubters began polluting a thread started by Bill Nye “The Science Guy” about his rejected attempt to place a bet about global warming, the Facebook account “NASA Climate Change” decided to pounce.


Link


NASA is a federal agency made up of many scientists with a wide background of knowledge. I'm not sure I want a person representing NASA fighting against blog trolls.

I support this comment.
"While I admire NASA’s courage in entering the fray here, it’s somewhat surprising that a federal agency would engage in such a way.

Attempting to confront this misinformation can become a full-time job — devolving into an endless and usually unproductive game of whack-a-mole."
Mid Atlantic is dry for the season as I have complained/commented about several times and this looks likely
to hold for the next week.

The April 27 1978 snowstorm in SW VA produced some impressive liquid and snow totals. 5-6" of liquid equivalent fell on the area and above 3000 feet it was mostly snow. At 2100 feet where I was, about 4" of very dense wet snow fell in three hours at the end of the event. There was flash and river flooding in Roanoke (1300') from the event but no snow that far down. Trees at 2100' were about half leafed out.

There was some white visible on the mountains from the Blacksburg campus of VPI as late as May 1
Quoting 14. Dakster:

No doubt RobertWC... I am feeling it first hand. My neighbors who have been here for a long time all telling me how anomalous all this is.

It sure is hot here in AK.... Hitting 60F's during the day at the house thermometer... Although there is still a little snow at the tops of the mountains by my house that every year do become mostly snow free. They are 'small' by Alaska standards and monsters by Florida standards...

Having to use the AC in April in Anchorage, AK is way way weird. The inside of the house will hit 80F if I don't open a window and the vehicles we drive we keep at 70F and the AC is needed to maintain that temp.


Used AC in December 2015 and March 2016 here in DC (several times in March). That's unusual.

Quoting 14. Dakster:

No doubt RobertWC... I am feeling it first hand. My neighbors who have been here for a long time all telling me how anomalous all this is.

It sure is hot here in AK.... Hitting 60F's during the day at the house thermometer... Although there is still a little snow at the tops of the mountains by my house that every year do become mostly snow free. They are 'small' by Alaska standards and monsters by Florida standards...

Having to use the AC in April in Anchorage, AK is way way weird. The inside of the house will hit 80F if I don't open a window and the vehicles we drive we keep at 70F and the AC is needed to maintain that temp.


We are in the upper 60's right now in North Florida due to overcast skies and a cool NE breeze, how odd for parts of Alaska to be reaching 60's already.
Modern chart of the 1926 Miami hurricane...I should mention the 2nd half of the storm was much worse than the first...

The latest from the San Juan NWS about the rain event of next week for the NE Caribbean.

HIGH PRESSURE AT 700 MB OVER THE TROPICAL ATLANTIC WILL EXTEND
INTO THE CARIBBEAN OVER THE WEEKEND AND PULL A LARGE PLUME OF
MOISTURE OFF OF NORTHERN SOUTH AMERICA AND OVER PUERTO RICO FROM
THE SOUTHWEST BEGINNING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS INFLUX OF
MOIST AIR WILL ALSO BREAK DOWN THE CAPPING THAT HAS KEPT WEATHER
FAIR SO FAR. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO FLOW OUT OF THE CARIBBEAN ON
TUESDAY WITH A FOCUS ON THE VIRGIN ISLANDS AND THE ANEGADA
PASSAGE. THEN MOISTURE CONTINUES OVER THE AREA THROUGH
FRIDAY...BUT DYNAMICS FOR PUERTO RICO ARE MOST FAVORABLE ON MONDAY
AND MORE FAVORABLE FOR THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY. WHILE THE GFS HAS BEEN FORECASTING THIS FOR SOME TIME
NOW...THE ECMWF IS FORECASTING EVEN MORE MOISTURE. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM IN
THE CARIBBEAN AND MOVE OVER THE AREA BRING HEAVY RAINFALL TO MOST
IF NOT ALL OF THE ISLANDS. FORECASTERS FROM THE INTERNATIONAL
DESK AT THE WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER ALSO CONCUR THAT THE
POTENTIAL FOR FLOODING FROM EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IS PRESENT OVER THE
AREA FROM MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BUT HAVE NOT PLACED THEIR
CONFIDENCE IN THE HIGHER VALUES OF THE ECMWF BECAUSE THEY ARE NOT
SURE HOW THE NEW ALGORITHMS IMPLEMENTED IN THE MODEL WILL BEHAVE
IN THIS SCENARIO. NEVERTHELESS EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL WANT TO
HAVE A CONTINGENCY PLAN IN PLACE FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK
NEXT WEEK FOR THE HEAVIEST RAINS OF THE YEAR SO FAR AND POTENTIAL
FLOODING IN PUERTO RICO AND THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS. IT IS NOT
CLEAR AT THIS TIME HOW LONG THE RAINS WILL LAST. THE MODELS SHOW
VERY HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES THROUGH FRIDAY OR SATURDAY OF
NEXT WEEK BUT DYNAMICS WILL GRADUALLY DETERIORATE. CURRENT
THOUGHTS ARE THAT SOME HEAVY RAIN WILL CONTINUE ON AND
INTERMITTENT BASIS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND LOCALIZED
FLOODING THROUGH THAT TIME CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

Quoting 20. hydrus:

Modern chart of the 1926 Miami hurricane...I should mention the 2nd half of the storm was much worse than the first...



El Huracán San Felipe II o Huracán Okeechobee
I guess people saying that a major hurricane hitting Miami would only disrupt the city for a few months have not read into the facts and thus that statement is completely bogus.It is estimated that if a storm were to hit Miami of the same magnitude or higher as the Great 1926 storm it would cost at least (the minimum) 170 billion for total losses.Yeah so much for a few months of recovery....
what's the significance of the dotted trough line on the Wundermap running down through Ohio etc...
OMG dat ECMWF forecast for JAS...
Sunday's setup
gotta think with el nino plummeting the atlantic season will be slightly above average. i wont change my forecast i made two months ago even though starting to think it could be slightly more active. also notice Fiji is under the gun again for heavy rains. wonder if some part of the n.western atlantic will receive recurring bashings like Fiji this yr?
30. vis0
First be safe, but after the storm careful if any ice on the ground/wood hidden by the snow.  See if you spot another of those "critters" under / in the snow hanging out on the railings. : -P
16. Sfloridacat5

Attempting to confront this misinformation can become a full-time job — devolving into an endless and usually unproductive game of whack-a-mole."

You're right of course, But I really loved the one where they slapped down the whole "other planets are warming" . A bit like saying seed dealerships and tractor supply stores are spring up all over Greenland.
Using ENSO looking at analog years, eye balled the last 6 month average at 2.2 for 3.4 SST average & then eyeballed GMAO GEOS-5 forecast average for the next 3 months (slightly adjusted by me based on past year error) -0.6. This came up with these years in this ranking.. Followed by named storms-hurricanes-majors.
1998 14-10-3
1973 8-4-1
1983 4-2-1
1966 11-7-3
1958 10-7-5

GEOS-5 Aug forecast for SST & wind anomaly..Click pic for all the months. Weighting Aug because it is similar to September and not as far out in the forecast. It is similar to 1998 our winning analog year. Biggest difference from 1998 to this year is northern Alaska cools down and there is overall noticeably less ice.


1998


Looking at GEOS-5 precip anomalies we could see another early storm or two with especially May picking up on some of the heat in the North West Atlantic. This carries over some through June some but the Atlantic starts looking drier. With the area near Reunion, that Fantala is raging in at the moment, peaking then.


July has dry setting in for Florida and some of the Southeast. The east coast could see a weaker storm. This continues through August with wet anomalies showing possible wave after wave dying off Africa or turning fish. 1998, 1983 & 1966 were all years East Central Florida had extreme wildfires. GEOS-5 is showing a possible heavy season again for Southern Philippines and south of there.


September hints at possible Gulf storm or two, maybe something in the Caribbean. Florida still dry. EPAC well north of the equator and the Indian Ocean showing more potential.



Generally I don't like April hurricane forecast as it's a little far out. For the Atlantic I'll go 15-10-4. Those certainly are not my final numbers..but for now I'll lean with there is more energy in the equation than past years & the switch still seems thrown. Many could be short lived storms based on recent trend. Not betting on a lot of US landfalls but putting the gulf coast at greatest risk. We may see higher numbers from the Central and EPAC combined than the Atlantic again this year. Some of the islands south of the Philippines may see some more really strong storms.
28. help4u

Too bad you're not in Fiji , you could shower them with your wisdom.
Conditions Promoting the Arctic Sea Ice Collapse Are Exceptionally Strong This Spring

It didn’t take long for Arctic sea ice to start to respond to a fossil-fuel based accumulation of hothouse gasses in the Earth’s atmosphere. For since the 1920s, that region of ocean ice along the northern polar zone has been in a steady, and increasingly rapid, retreat. Rachel Carson wrote about the start of the Northern Hemisphere ocean ice decline in her ground-breaking 1955 book — The Edge of the Sea.

Link
Quoting 19. Jedkins01:



We are in the upper 60's right now in North Florida due to overcast skies and a cool NE breeze, how odd for parts of Alaska to be reaching 60's already.


In March parts hit +70F... Breaking heat records. No part of Alaska hit 70F in March prior to this year. (at least that is what the paper said). Remember that if we cut Alaska in two, Texas would be the third largest state in the US.
Here is a article on what would happen if a major hit Miami
A new study released by the disaster modeling experts at the Karen Clark Company estimates that if a major hurricane, with a 1-in-100 chance of occurring in a given year, were to hit downtown Miami the losses would eclipse more than $250 billion in damage.
Link
Tipping Points: What Wall Street and Nature Have in Common

The researchers reviewed data from many different types of systems, including ecological systems such as the Earth's climate and ocean patterns, economic systems such as global stock market patterns, as well as medical systems in the human body such as asthma attacks, epileptic seizures and migraines. ............... One of the common warning signs of an impending tipping point is when a system takes longer to recover to equilibrium after it is disturbed. Most systems exist in temporarily stable states of equilibrium. If the system is perturbed by some force and pushed in a new direction, it usually moves back toward equilibrium quickly. But if the system is approaching a tipping point, it tends to take longer to recover its balance. ............................ While fluctuations take longer in these systems, they often are greater in magnitude. That is, under normal circumstances fluctuations tend to be short and small. When a drastic transition approaches, conditions fluctuate between greater extremes, and the fluctuations take longer to pass.

Link
Quoting 24. washingtonian115:

I guess people saying that a major hurricane hitting Miami would only disrupt the city for a few months have not read into the facts and thus that statement is completely bogus.It is estimated that if a storm were to hit Miami of the same magnitude or higher as the Great 1926 storm it would cost at least (the minimum) 170 billion for total losses.Yeah so much for a few months of recovery....



If hurricane Andrew would have made landfall 20 miles further north, Miami would have been devastated. The city of Miami was very lucky to be about 10 miles north of the northern eye wall. The highest wind gust reported at Miami International Airport was 115 mph and wind speeds dropped off rapidly the further north you go up the coast (like 69 mph gust in Fort Lauderdale/Hollywood area).



" with the upper low near Four Corners largely cut off from the jet. "

From caption of Figure 1 in the blog above. Get some popcorn and watch Lee Grenci's blog.

Quoting 18. georgevandenberghe:
Used AC in December 2015 and March 2016 here in DC (several times in March). That's unusual.
Aha! There's the whole problem. If people didn't run their AC's we wouldn't be in this mess!

Carry on.
Quoting 8. RobertWC:

NASA GISS have now reported that March was +1.28C warmer than 1951-1980 period. And that means that we now have had two months in a row with temp anomalies above +1,5C from pre-industrial values.



Year to date from Sou:


Figure 5 | Global mean surface temperature, progressive year to date to March 2016. Data source. GISS NASA
Quoting 39. bappit:

" with the upper low near Four Corners largely cut off from the jet. "

From caption of Figure 1 in the blog above. Get some popcorn and watch Lee Grenci's blog.

Aha! There's the whole problem. If people didn't run their AC's we wouldn't be in this mess!

Carry on.


Here in Scotland, only rich folks have AC, and it's just an unused fashion statement. The land that global warming forgot.
Quoting 26. Gearsts:

OMG dat ECMWF forecast for JAS...


Does it show a very dry and boring MDR and Caribbean?? lol
Quoting 23. Gearsts:




Endless rain event ? xD
Quoting 39. bappit:

" with the upper low near Four Corners largely cut off from the jet. "

From caption of Figure 1 in the blog above. Get some popcorn and watch Lee Grenci's blog.

Aha! There's the whole problem. If people didn't run their AC's we wouldn't be in this mess!

Carry on.


This was a battle lost with the rest of the family. :-)
45. SLU
Quoting 42. CaribBoy:



Does it show a very dry and boring MDR and Caribbean?? lol


A hypertensive Atlantic like last year with dry anomalies in the MDR.
Quoting 41. yonzabam:



Here in Scotland, only rich folks have AC, and it's just an unused fashion statement. The land that global warming forgot.


Remember seeing a bumper sticker in Minnesota many years ago

"Minnesotans for Global Warming"
Quoting 45. SLU:



A hypertensive Atlantic like last year with dry anomalies in the MDR.


Bad news for rain seekers like me.
Quoting 41. yonzabam:



Here in Scotland, only rich folks have AC, and it's just an unused fashion statement. The land that global warming forgot.


I thought everyone was rich in Scotland?
49. SLU
Quoting 47. CaribBoy:



Bad news for rain seekers like me.


I find it hard to imagine a La Nina year with low rainfall in the Caribbean so I don't really buy the EURO entirely.
50. SLU
Quoting 47. CaribBoy:



Bad news for rain seekers like me.


It does show normal rainfall for the Caribbean though so that should mean substantial rainfall and wave activity like we knew in the old days

Quoting 48. Dakster:



I thought everyone was rich in Scotland?
Cool up there today...72.9F here.
Quoting 50. SLU:



It does show normal rainfall for the Caribbean though so that should mean substantial rainfall and wave activity like we knew in the old days


The good old days :) it's been a while.
Quoting 51. PedleyCA:


Cool up there today...72.9F here.



50F at the house... Nice out here.

72.9F sounds nice as well.
Quoting 42. CaribBoy:



Does it show a very dry and boring MDR and Caribbean?? lol
Same as last year.
Quoting 54. Gearsts:

Same as last year.


I've just seen it on tweeter... high pressure in the MDR and near average rainfall in the Caribbean. However, there are dry anomalies very near us... and also very near PR.

Well, it's only April (spring barrier) so the models may not be very realiable for the ASO period at this time. June forecasts will be much more telling :)
EL NIÑO/SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) DIAGNOSTIC
DISCUSSION
issued by
CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER/NCEP/NWS
and the International Research Institute for Climate and Society
14 April 2016
ENSO Alert System Status: El Niño Advisory/ La Niña Watch
Synopsis: A transition to ENSO-neutral is likely during late Northern Hemisphere spring or early
summer 2016, with an increasing chance of La Niña during the second half of the year.
Link
Busted forecast here in Melbourne 2 days in a row. Storms to the north and south. Need some rain. Had a little last night but that was it. One more chance tomorrow then slight chance upcoming week. Geez!
The CFS does show pretty low shear levels in the Caribbean in July.
GIANT TORNADO in Dolores, Uruguay!!!!!!!! Looks like an EF3 !

Video of the tornado in Dolores





In The Rio Grande do Sul (Brazil's state) the temperatures nearly reached 40C in full mid APRIL! : O

GIANT TORNADO IN DOLORES, URUGUAY THIS AFTERNOON!!!!!! Looks like and EF3+!

Video showing the Tornado in Dolores

Really insane, looks like the Tuscaloosa Alabama Tornado in 2011!

Tornado Reporter

The temperature in the South Brazil (Rio Grande do Sul state) reached nearly 40ºC IN MID APRIL! I-N-S-A-N-E-L-Y above average!

Quoting 57. hurricanewatcher61:

Busted forecast here in Melbourne 2 days in a row. Storms to the north and south. Need some rain. Had a little last night but that was it. One more chance tomorrow then slight chance upcoming week. Geez!

That little bit we keep getting at night and the lack sun during the day has really slashed our instability the last two days.

My hair doesn't look too bad either, I'm not expecting alot for rain.
When under the right conditions the Caribbean can really produce or help strengthen a storm, take Hurricane Dean from 2007.
Quoting 62. Climate175:

When under the right conditions the Caribbean can really produce or help strengthen a storm, take Hurricane Dean from 2007.


The Caribbean is the beast of the Atlantic Basin. If the conditions are right, it produces some of the strongest hurricanes on record (Gilbert and Wilma come to mind).
The Caribbean also develops monster systems in record time.
Quoting 58. Climate175:

The CFS does show pretty low shear levels in the Caribbean in July.
That's why I'm less concerned about the mdr and more concerned with closer to home.The caribbean is a scary place if the conditions allow for a seedling to blossom.The most recent example is Rina from 2011 that had undergone rapid intensification in the NW caribbean.
It seems as if ECMWF is predicting 2013-like conditions...I doubt that will be the case though.
Quoting 68. Tazmanian:




thanks for posting info that we all ready no by now


You forget there are thousands of people that view this blog that aren't blog members and don't post comments. I would assume 95% of those viewers don't even know what ENSO means. They also don't come to the blog everyday.

You can only speak for yourself and some blog members. That's actually a very tiny percent of the people that read this blog.

Glad to see a La Nina is still predicted as April 14th. I didn't know that.
Quoting 66. washingtonian115:

That's why I'm less concerned about the mdr and more concerned with closer to home.The caribbean is a scary place if the conditions allow for a seedling to blossom.The most recent example is Rina from 2011 that had undergone rapid intensification in the NW caribbean.
Yea, it's also about time the Caribbean wakes up from it's slumber.

Quoting 70. Dakster:

Glad to see a La Nina is still predicted as April 14th. I didn't know that.
So we can't have a La Nina till 3 Month after it hits -.5.  Is that correct?
Quoting 2. Patrap:

Dosen't have to be a Cat 5, as Houston was wrecked with massive flooding as well as parts of Se La too from TS Allison in 2001. And it remains the only Atlantic Tropical Storm name to have been retired.



I also note Cat 1 Isaac in 2012 here as the flood protection held for 2 days easily, but the areas outside to the Nwest,Laplace suffered massive flooding and South of Nola, Braithwaite were devastated by surge flooding.




Brought on-in part due to a post-K parish levee that failed (again) and was overtopped. The back levee behind Braithwaite offered a uniquely shaped levee plan. The surge was funneled from the southeast to the northwest towards the narrow end & Braithewaite. A compounding factor was the closure of the Mississippi River Gulf Outlet Canal (MRGO) in 2009 that used to allow surge into the heart of New Orleans. The water was shunted to the west along the spoil banks of the MRGO-towards the levee funnel in back of Braithwaite. I am sure the parish would have raised the levee after Katrina if they would have had the funds.

The surge poured over the back levee and was more or less trapped betweeen the back levee and the main stem Mississippi River Levee.

The more we try to fix things...




Post-Katrina Back-Levee repair.
Quoting 70. Dakster:

Glad to see a La Nina is still predicted as April 14th. I didn't know that.
65% chance for La nina.
Good late evening from Europe, folks, and thanks for the new entry although it doesn't promise anything good for certain regions of the US.

Here comes a special service with the accumulated rain according to the latest "Euro" (ECMWF) worldwide eight days out (maps thanks to German wetteronline.de).

North America (see blog entry) and decent amounts for CaribBoy and co. as well:


South America: special concerns for the northeastern part of Argentina and its neighbours. I've already posted about the flooding down there in the last ten days. Recently they've got some days of respite, but the wet mess should resume (and already started according to the latest posts from Pablosyn):


Africa: You can see the trace of cyclone Fantala northeast of Madagascar:


Asia: Copious amounts for northeastern India, Bangladesh and southern China:


Australia/Oceania: Umm, Australia is mostly a dry spot, but f.e. Fiji gets it once again:


Finally Europe: no purple showing up, so I hope no problems if the "Euro" is right:
Quoting 72. PedleyCA:


So we can't have a La Nina till 3 Month after it hits -.5.  Is that correct?



That would a very very weak La Nina.... But I believe that is correct.
90P looks like a butterfly..
Too early to tell but I think next years La Nina will be atypical like 1983-84, 1989-90, 1995-96, 1999-2000, 2000-2001. & 2010-2011. All those years featured a front-loaded Winter and a cool Fall!


Okay, let me see if I read this right.
Those regions of SE Texas in the red, the northwestern counties, stand the best chance of flooding and severe wx. Houston is in the yellow-to-green zones, so the threat is lesser there.

What do you think, Justmehouston?
Quoting 72. PedleyCA:


So we can't have a La Nina till 3 Month after it hits -.5.  Is that correct?


For official full fledged La Nina we need 5 consecutive months where the three month average for region 3,4 (ONI) is -0.5 or below.
Quoting 78. weatherbro:

Too early to tell but I think next years La Nina will be atypical like 1983-84, 1989-90, 1995-96, 1999-2000, 2000-2001. & 2010-2011. All those years featured a front-loaded Winter and a cool Fall!


Perhaps 1983-84 could be our closest analog. hmmm
Rooftops in Cloudy Places Could Be Solar Gold Mines
Climate Central, Published: April 15th, 2016
Nestled on the eastern shore of Lake Erie, Buffalo is considered one of the cloudiest, dreariest cities in the U.S. - not exactly the first place many people consider prime real estate for solar power development. But Buffalonians have good reason to be excited about rooftop solar, and not just because a solar panel factory is creating jobs.
Buffalo and some other cloudy northeastern cities have the potential to satisfy more than half of their electricity needs if their roofs were fully covered in solar panels - as much as 68 percent of electric power demand in Buffalo's case, according to National Renewable Energy Laboratory research published in March. ...

Whole article see link above. From that article:



New Milestone: Earth Sees 11 Record Hot Months in a Row
Climate Central, Published: April 15th, 2016
The past 11 months have been the hottest such months in 135 years of recordkeeping, a streak that has itself set a record and puts in clear terms just how much the planet has warmed due to the buildup of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere. ....

Good night, everyone.
Good Night Barbamz.

Solar is pretty big up here in Alaska too. A lot of off grid applications here. I didn't see too many solar PV stores in Florida, but I do up here. Would have been nice if they put AK and HI on that map you posted, but I am getting used to now being left out.
Well, I might have spoke to soon. Getting some heavy rains and some lighting now, and the power went down for a minute. 8:30 pm, better late than never.
Quoting 61. Skyepony:


That little bit we keep getting at night and the lack sun during the day has really slashed our instability the last two days.

My hair doesn't look too bad either, I'm not expecting alot for rain.
Quoting 84. hurricanewatcher61:

Well, I might have spoke to soon. Getting some heavy rains and some lighting now, and the power went down for a minute. 8:30 pm, better late than never.


1.) Where are you?

2.) Can I look forward to what you're experiencing this Sunday-Tuesday in Houston?
hurricanewatcher61~ had a little small hail and a few power flickers, one closer cloud to ground strike, only 0.37" of rain in the last 24hrs...if that's it for the night I'll be disappointed. Looks like maybe more coming from the north later. This winter spoiled me on decent rain.
Quoting 85. pureet1948:


2.) Can I look forward to what you're experiencing this Sunday-Tuesday in Houston?

I'm gonna lean toward no. GEOS-5 has that break way up before it gets to you. Looks gamely well west of Houston though.
So many mix signals but i think the CFS is one extreme that can happen and the Euro is super dry another extreme.
<>img src="">
Quoting 87. Skyepony:


I'm gonna lean toward no. GEOS-5 has that break way up before it gets to you. Looks gamely well west of Houston though.



Is GEOS-5 a better model than the GFS? Our local pro-mets say the regular guidance models aren't handling this wx system well at all.





College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 850 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 844 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     PUEBLO CO - KPUB 741 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 831 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
TORNADO WARNING     PUEBLO CO - KPUB 721 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
Quoting 74. Gearsts:

65% chance for La nina.
Why the excitement for la nina?
Quoting 96. Kenfa03:

Why the excitement for la nina?
I want rain.
99. vis0

Quoting 33. RobertWC:

28. help4u

Too bad you're not in Fiji , you could shower them with your wisdom.
or the fire hose that floods Carolina
or the Texas drought that last for years
or the 2 1-250/500 year floods that inundated areas of Texas
or running wet-vacs in Louisiana
or Mass mega snowfalls
or Polar vortex major outbreaks YET GLOBE WAS BREAKING RECORDS AS TO WARMTH/HEAT.
or Erika as to the Antilles island Dominica
or  serious Spring flooding in the middle of winter (Midwest)
or a drought in California
or having years with 8-12 TS when they are the "quiet" TS years, and if you look at "quiet" TS years before the 1970s it meant 4-6 TS
or so much ice melting even if GW where 100% caused without man's influence thus not aGw but GW its in humans best interest to lower what humans add via greenhouse gases as it would take already hundreds of years just to refreeze what has recently melted and that is with JBs ice age if it began ...NOW!
NOT PICKING ON JB,  if JB is going to post his theory and it doesn't happen after passing 3 starting point years why is it wrong to point that out.  If you can't stand the heat then stop adding to it.

or the quickness and repetitive F3, F4 tornadoes (F as in New Fujita scale) just a few years ago and i'm afraid will be back soon, but the latter is not an official prognostication.
or the force of salt water from TS/Xtra TS bringing salt water into city's infrastructures damaging miles pf wiring.

Notice i'm only mentioning what i can remember as to USofA or near by extremes, in other words less than ~4-6% of the worlds land.   Like only pointing out in a 2 floor home that had 5 bathrooms only what happens in the visitors (toilet/basin no bathtub) lavatory.

help4u i hope you are keeping tabs on the cost amount so you can tell me how much we've saved by not being responsible adults and making sure the planet is better off.  
Why?  
So future help4u can pass the buck while enjoying what many of the last few generations did so help4u could show how little help4u cares as to the many that died to protect this planets ability to grow as to enjoying freedom.  Yet all that is asked of you is help join with other so we can show representatives that people what change thus create stronger laws that assist in funding the laboratories that are working on new healthier fuel sources and laws to make sure companies that do not care, care. And we understand it's going to cost more but also by funding now the odds of a new cleaner method of generating energy is discovered rises.  That new energy source then  lower costs across the board.  
If you then say that it takes too long to discover a new cleaner energy source then you are going against USofA social grain of being a people that are not stopped by merely words and people whom can create and perfect what was once only exists in their imagination.

Just realized its Friday so cutting this cmmnt, short? as pages might be used to warn members in areas of this weekends ULL affects.
Quoting 98. Gearsts:

I want rain.
Im with you. I would much rather take El Nino instead of La Nina.
Quoting 96. Kenfa03:

Why the excitement for la nina?


I kinda prefer neutral conditions, that is the only way that one area of the world doesn't get drenched while another goes into a drought. The excitement is that it is different from the pattern we are in.
Film Theory: How to Make A REAL Sharknado!



Sharknado 4: The 4th Awakens is scheduled to air at 8 p.m. Sunday, July 31.
Hey BB - Hope you are having a good Friday and start to your weekend. I haven't seen the first sharknado, doubt I will be gearing up to watch #4....
Quoting 104. Dakster:



I kinda prefer neutral conditions, that is the only way that one area of the world doesn't get drenched while another goes into a drought. The excitement is that it is different from the pattern we are in.
I agree with this post... neutral, but it won't happen, just the eXtremes....
Quoting 107. PedleyCA:

I agree with this post... neutral, but it won't happen, just the eXtremes....



Yes and I think part of it is climate change and the Earth's systems trying to compensate for it. (simplified reasoning as I know the Earth is more complex than that).

I saw about 10 minutes of the first one but when they had the hurricane spinning clockwise off of California I just had to turn it off, until about 2 minutes before the end when Ian Ziering chainsaws through a shark from snout to tail.

Ian Ziering plays the same character in Lavalantua: Volcanic eruptions in Los Angeles unleash a swarm of gigantic, lava-breathing tarantulas.
Quoting 88. RobertWC:

Just a reminder , there are bags of hammers. That contain Palin%u2019s total brain power.


My preferred epithet (not completely relevant here.. applies more to musclebound middle managers) is

"the strength and intelligence of an Oak tree"
"the strength and intelligence of an Oak tree"

I resemble that remark :)
I resemble that remark :)

Then fix your edit..

Fantala
I think that Flood insurance is going to go WAY up in Florida, especially in Miami-Dade after this study.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment /article72070677.html

Link
Quoting 109. BaltimoreBrian:

I saw about 10 minutes of the first one but when they had the hurricane spinning clockwise off of California I just had to turn it off, until about 2 minutes before the end when Ian Ziering chainsaws through a shark from snout to tail.

Ian Ziering plays the same character in Lavalantua: Volcanic eruptions in Los Angeles unleash a swarm of gigantic, lava-breathing tarantulas.


B movies can be interesting ways to waste time.





College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     AMARILLO TX - KAMA 1059 PM CDT FRI APR 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING ALBUQUERQUE NM - KABQ 950 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
FLASH FLOOD WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 941 PM MDT FRI APR 15 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MELBOURNE FL - KMLB 1141 PM EDT FRI APR 15 2016
Quoting 89. Gearsts:

So many mix signals but i think the CFS is one extreme that can happen and the Euro is super dry another extreme.
img src="">


CFS will win! ;)
118. JRRP7
don't make me laugh !!!

Had to chuckle on that one.
When my sister moved to Naples, one on her first comments were, "It wouldn't be so d@@n hot here, if you didn't run your AC's." She moved here from central WI.

Quoting 39. bappit:

" with the upper low near Four Corners largely cut off from the jet. "

From caption of Figure 1 in the blog above. Get some popcorn and watch Lee Grenci's blog.

Aha! There's the whole problem. If people didn't run their AC's we wouldn't be in this mess!

Carry on.
I assume this is going to be the next blog..

March temperature smashes 100-year global record
Hey guys

I have a bad feeling this year will be the year of Caribbean and Gulf monsters

My only hope it say relatively quiet in July I have to go to England for almost a full month to do some military/emergency management thing
I don't want to miss all the action;) ;)
Quoting 28. help4u:

45 years ago Obama science czar John Holdren predicted that burning fossil fuels would cause a new ice age.Also the prediction in 2005 on this site that super canes would destroy gulf coast !!As long as the experts can keep moving goal posts you are always right! Also remember on this site 5 years ago the experts were saying Texas was in permanent drought for years to come, and before that the great ozone hole that was going to destroy mankind!!I look forward 10 years down the road of reading all the latest gloom and doom .Everyone stay save and have wonderful day!!Enjoy!

...or so you claim.

A little evidence to support those claims would be nice. Otherwise, it can be assumed that those claims are inaccurate.
Quoting 121. Mediarologist:

I assume this is going to be the next blog..

March temperature smashes 100-year global record


There's a lot of confusion with these monthly and yearly temperature anomalies, due to the fact that different organisations use different reference periods.

The JMA uses 1981-10, NASA uses 1951-80, and the NOAA uses the 20th century average. When the NOAA and NASA figures are in, we'll see that the March anomaly didn't beat February's record, as the article claims.
125. ackee
Quoting 122. wunderkidcayman:

Hey guys

I have a bad feeling this year will be the year of Caribbean and Gulf monsters

My only hope it say relatively quiet in July I have to go to England for almost a full month to do some military/emergency management thing
I don't want to miss all the action;) ;)
what pattern are u observing now that makes u think the carribbean is in for a bad year ?? according to crown weather preseason forecast the carribbean should see below normal activity for me I wait until July to see how trade winds are dry air etc to see what will be in store for the region
guys is this possible?.....first week of may?.....................
Quoting 90. Gearsts:



Bizarre, but plausible as of about the time of Sandy's operations.
Quoting 124. yonzabam:



There's a lot of confusion with these monthly and yearly temperature anomalies, due to the fact that different organisations use different reference periods.

The JMA uses 1981-10, NASA uses 1951-80, and the NOAA uses the 20th century average. When the NOAA and NASA figures are in, we'll see that the March anomaly didn't beat February's record, as the article claims.

Didn't the article claim that the record was for the JMA data set? That's the way I read it. If my reading is correct, then the article will still be correct no matter NOAA and NASA show, unless JMA revises downward.
Good morning.

Here is the latest about the big rain event of next week for the NE Caribbean from the San Juan NWS.

A BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL THEN ESTABLISH ACROSS THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC AND INTO THE NORTHERN CARIBBEAN EARLY NEXT WEEK.
AS THE CAP WEAKENS AND THE TROUGH ESTABLISHES...DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO ADVECT ACROSS THE EASTERN CARIBBEAN FROM
THE SOUTHEAST MONDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF NEXT WEEK.
UNDER TROUGH ALOFT AND ASSOCIATED FAVORABLE JET DYNAMICS AS WELL
AS PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...THERE IS HIGH POTENTIAL FOR
HEAVY/PERSISTENT CONVECTION LATE MONDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY.

BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE...THE HIGHEST CHANCE FOR HEAVY RAINFALL
ACROSS PUERTO RICO...BUT ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN HALF OF THE
ISLANDS...IS EXPECTED ON LATE MONDAY MORNING/AFTERNOON. ACROSS
THE U.S. VIRGIN ISLANDS...PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL ARE EXPECTED
BOTH DAYS...MONDAY AND TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD AREAS OF URBAN AND
SMALL STREAM FLOODING AS WELL AS LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE. CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE EVOLUTION OF THIS PATTERN...
EMERGENCY MANAGERS WILL WANT TO HAVE A CONTINGENCY PLAN IN PLACE
FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK DUE TO INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING.

Quoting 128. Misanthroptimist:


Didn't the article claim that the record was for the JMA data set? That's the way I read it. If my reading is correct, then the article will still be correct no matter NOAA and NASA show, unless JMA revises downward.


It did, but the figures are all over the place, and I think the Guardian journalist is just out of his depth. I actually commented on the comments section of the article yesterday, raising the same point, and it looks like the article has been modified. Let's look at what's being said.

Compared with the 20th-century average, March was 1.07C hotter across the globe, according to the JMA figures, while February was 1.04C higher. The JMA measurements go back to 1891 and show that every one of the past 11 months has been the hottest ever recorded for that month.

Data released released later on Friday by Nasa confirmed last month was the hottest March on record, but the US agency%u2019s data indicated February had seen the biggest margin. The Nasa data recorded March as 1.65C above the average from 1951-1980, while February was 1.71C higher.


NASA has February at 1.35 C above the 1951-80 average, not 1.65 C as stated above. I know figures get revised, but the discrepancies are only a few hundredths, so that's wrong for starters. I don't know where they get the 1.71 C NASA figure for March from, as March has not yet been added to the official online table, although it might be a preview figure.

Also, in the first paragraph, it states that the Japanese figures are 1.07 C warmer for March, compared to 1.04 C for February, and they're saying that the reference period is the 20th century average. That's obviously wrong, but it would make more sense if the reference period was the 1981-10 period, which the JMA uses.

NASA dataset
Link

(The link is showing 'not found')
Good morning abroad with good looking Fantala which is forecast by the models to recurve in a very sharp way:





Thoughts to poor Japan: first the awful quakes, then followed by awful weather to boot:

Death Toll From Japan Quakes Rises to 32, as Mudslides Hamper Rescue Efforts
ABC, By DAVID CAPLAN, Apr 16, 2016, 6:31 AM ET

The Latest: Japanese line up for rations, bracing for rain
Posted: Apr 16, 2016 7:59 AM
Hundreds of people have lined up for rations at shelters before nightfall, bracing for rainfall and strong winds that may set off more devastating mudslides in Japan's earthquake-struck southern region. ...
Quoting 124. yonzabam:



There's a lot of confusion with these monthly and yearly temperature anomalies, due to the fact that different organisations use different reference periods.

The JMA uses 1981-10, NASA uses 1951-80, and the NOAA uses the 20th century average. When the NOAA and NASA figures are in, we'll see that the March anomaly didn't beat February's record, as the article claims.
I don't know that there's all that much confusion. After all, the important part isn't that the anomalies among the various datasets differ because they're using different baselines; what's important is that every single dataset shows roughly the same remarkable long-term rise in global temperatures. (Of course, duller types [i.e., Anthony Watts and Joe Bastardi, et al] will shout that since all the datasets disagree, they're obviously all wrong, but we expect such blather from them. Besides, thinking people realize such "logic" is akin to a man looking at two thermometers, one stating that it's 26.2F outside and the other stating that it's 26.4, dismissing them both as wrong because of their "error", then heading outdoors with just a tank top, shorts, and flip flops.)
More good ideas concerning renewables :-)
Giraffe dung to be used to heat homes in France
The Local (France), Published: 15 Apr 2016 17:31 GMT+02:00
Quoting 113. Dakster:

I think that Flood insurance is going to go WAY up in Florida, especially in Miami-Dade after this study.

http://www.miamiherald.com/news/local/environment /article72070677.html

Link
Flood insurance is provided by the Federal Government, not from your local insurance companies, so I highly doubt it will go up as much as you think.
Quoting 134. Neapolitan:

I don't know that there's all that much confusion. After all, the important part isn't that the anomalies among the various datasets differ because they're using different baselines; what's important is that every single dataset shows roughly the same remarkable long-term rise in global temperatures. (Of course, duller types [i.e., Anthony Watts and Joe Bastardi, et al] will shout that since all the datasets disagree, they're obviously all wrong, but we expect such blather from them. Besides, thinking people realize such "logic" is akin to a man looking at two thermometers, one stating that it's 26.2F outside and the other stating that it's 26.4, dismissing them both as wrong because of their "error", then heading outdoors with just a tank top, shorts, and flip flops.)



From the article:

February anomaly (NASA) +1.65 C (1951-80 ref period)
February anomaly (JMA) +1.04 C (20th cent average)

Given that 1951-80 was warmer than the 20th century average, the discrepancy is probably greater than 0.8 C, or more than 80% of global warming since the 19th century. But, maybe I'm just easily confused.
Quoting 37. RobertWC:

Tipping Points: What Wall Street and Nature Have in Common

.... One of the common warning signs of an impending tipping point is when a system takes longer to recover to equilibrium after it is disturbed. Most systems exist in temporarily stable states of equilibrium. If the system is perturbed by some force and pushed in a new direction, it usually moves back toward equilibrium quickly. But if the system is approaching a tipping point, it tends to take longer to recover its balance. ............................ While fluctuations take longer in these systems, they often are greater in magnitude. That is, under normal circumstances fluctuations tend to be short and small. When a drastic transition approaches, conditions fluctuate between greater extremes, and the fluctuations take longer to pass.

Link


Hi all,
1st post from Cape Town, South Africa.
Imho these crazy records are now beyond any description as a continuing line. Take all the self-enhancing phenomenons like methane-releasing permafrost, seafloor methane hydrate etc.:
This is like a quantum leap.
Quoting 88. RobertWC:

Just a reminder , there are bags of hammers. That contain Palin’s total brain power.
And no doubt more efficient.
Quoting 135. barbamz:

More good ideas concerning renewables :-)
Giraffe dung to be used to heat homes in France
The Local (France), Published: 15 Apr 2016 17:31 GMT+02:00
Wonder where they get it...They are not indigenous there, and tough to keep as pets...Greetings Barb.
Quoting 123. Misanthroptimist:


...or so you claim.

A little evidence to support those claims would be nice. Otherwise, it can be assumed that those claims are inaccurate.


Why use evidence and facts when you can lie like a used car salesman?

Quoting 28. help4u:


Dead give away that you're about to enter the WTF zone.

45 years ago Obama science czar John Holdren predicted that burning fossil fuels would cause a new ice age.


Lie. He said no such thing. He said that global warming was not the most pressing environmental issue but global warming would be a serious long term problem (this was back in the 1970's, and there were more pressing environmental concerns). The idiot brigade (Watts et al.) made up the global cooling crap out of whole cloth. There isn't a single publication of his (and he has had plenty) where he ever states that there would be global cooling. Not a one.

Also the prediction in 2005 on this site that super canes would destroy gulf coast !!


100% fact free bull@#!$ lie. There was no such prediction made. There were several articles discussing the potential impacts of a warming world on cyclogenesis, but no predictions were made (least of all for any immediate future time period). Then, as now, the impacts of a warming world on hurricanes is still an open question in scientific research. The current thinking is that there may be fewer storms overall, but they would be more powerful. And that would be 100 years from now, not anytime in the immediate future.


Also remember on this site 5 years ago the experts were saying Texas was in permanent drought for years to come,


Another one straight from the bull@#%& factory. No one (least of Dr. Masters) ever made any such claim. You see, all the previous blogs made on this site (and keep in mind, it is a blog not a peer reviewed science periodical) are available to search and read. You should keep that in mind when making up your lies because it's very easy to check how much BS you're trying to shovel.

and before that the great ozone hole that was going to destroy mankind!!


Actually, that was more of a global threat to life in general, not just man. But of course, someone of your rather questionable understanding of science wouldn't be able to grasp that. One of the reasons why life is possible on this planet is because of the numerous ways it shelters that life. One such way is the ozone layer which is responsible for blocking a good chunk of the UV spectrum. CFC's were destroying the ozone layer, which is easily demonstrable through basic chemistry. Without the ozone layer, you get a similar effect to the what UV sanitizers do only across the globe.

I look forward 10 years down the road of reading all the latest gloom and doom .


Just keep packing that sand around your head and you should be good to go.
Fantala

Modis from over the day there.


Most recent Meteosat7 as of this comment.
Quoting 138. EmsiNasklug:



Hi all,
1st post from Cape Town, South Africa.
Imho these crazy records are now beyond any description as a continuing line. Take all the self-enhancing phenomenons like methane-releasing permafrost, seafloor methane hydrate etc.:
This is like a quantum leap.



Welcome to the forum. There's no evidence that the ongoing sudden increase in global temperature is being caused mainly by positive feedbacks. Release of stored oceanic heat is probably the main source, with El Nino playing the leading role. It'll be interesting to see how long it lasts. If temperatures don't fall back significantly in 2017, that'll be an 'Uh oh!' moment.
Plenty of storm reports with those storms last night in Southeast Florida. There was several reports of Ping Pong size hail and winds. A 23 year old male standing under a tree was struck and killed by lightning.

There also was a 780 acre fire in the everglades yesterday.
Quoting 143. yonzabam:



Welcome to the forum. There's no evidence that the ongoing sudden increase in global temperature is being caused mainly by positive feedbacks. Release of stored oceanic heat is probably the main source, with El Nino playing the leading role. It'll be interesting to see how long it lasts. If temperatures don't fall back significantly in 2017, that'll be an 'Uh oh!' moment.
I think you mean, "That'll be yet another 'Uh oh!' moment in an increasingly long line of 'Uh oh!' moments". One extreme weather/climate event after another is happening--recordbreaking rainfall and drought, recordbreaking temperatures, recordbreaking cyclones; those paying attention can't help but exclaim "Uh-oh!" multiple times each month now...

Now, here's something you can take to the bank: global temperatures will *not* "fall back significantly in 2017", or in any other year in the foreseeable future. Yes, the effects of the El Nino are fading, and the current temperature spike will abate. But the long-term, multi-decadal rise in global temperatures we've been seeing will continue for as long as any of us are alive. Temperatures have been above the long-term average since the mid-80s; to fall below that average will take an asteroid strike, a supervolcanic eruption, or all-out thermonuclear war. Absent that, things will just keep heating up.
Quoting 141. Xyrus2000:



Why use evidence and facts when you can lie like a used car salesman?


Morality questions abound............
Quoting 144. Skyepony:
...There were several reports of Ping Pong size hail....
I was curious about the difference in dimensions between golf ball size and ping pong ball size hail...

- Grapefruit-sized hail is 4 inches in diameter
- Baseball-sized hail is 2.75 inches
- Golf-ball-sized hail is 1.75 inches
- Ping-pong-ball-sized hail is 1.5 inches
- Pea-sized hail is less than half an inch in diameter.

How Dangerous Is Hail?
Quoting 126. LargoFl:

guys is this possible?.....first week of may?.....................
Come on GFS can you please AT LEAST wait until the beginning of May before you start these teasers?
3.01 (1.09) The Ball
The ball shall be a sphere formed by yarn wound around a small
core of cork, rubber or similar material, covered with two strips of
white horsehide or cowhide, tightly stitched together. It shall weigh
not less than five nor more than 5¼ ounces avoirdupois and measure
not less than nine nor more than 9¼ inches in circumference

Major league baseball is between 2.8662" and 2.9458"

But hey, 2.75" is close enough.
150. vis0

Quoting 80. Skyepony:


For official full fledged La Nina we need 5 consecutive months where the three month average for region 3,4 (ONI) is -0.5 or below.
Here is a weird thought...
(vis0 looking up and to the right  as if trying to look into his brain)
ok.

Now a good question.
How long does it take to call ENSO neutral. Is it right away or once its between  +.5 to -.5  or is it 1, 2, 3, 5 months as with Niño/Niña?
i wonder cause if one needs 1 month between -/+5 then for neutral then it really not till 6 months for a Niño/Nina call.

Finally cannot wait for aquak9 to let us know where is La Nina come Fall 20165 or Winter 2016 IF there is a delay.
Quoting 150. vis0:


Here is a weird thought...
(vis0 looking up and to the right  as if trying to look into his brain)
ok.

Now a good question.
How long does it take to call ENSO neutral. Is it right away or once its between  +.5 to -.5  or is it 1, 2, 3, 5 months as with Niño/Niña?
i wonder cause if one needs 1 month between -/+5 then for neutral then it really not till 6 months for a Niño/Nina call.

Finally cannot wait for aquak9 to let us know where is La Nina come Fall 20165 or Winter 2016 IF there is a delay.
Vis0, you hit a nerve! It logically should be 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month stretches with Niño 3.4 at or below 0.5 anomaly to get out of El Niño, but does it have to pass through neutral under those parameters before transitioning to La Niña? Or does it only have to be below +.5 anomaly for the three-overlapping-three-month-periods to be declared La Niña? Logic would say it has to be into the below -.5 region for the period to qualify, but it's really not very clear, is it?
New Documents Show Oil Industry Even More Evil Than We Thought
Oil companies’ coordinated cover-up of climate risks stretches back decades and rivals that of big tobacco companies.
04/14/2016 12:34 am ET


In 1968, a pair of scientists from Stanford Research Institute wrote a report for the American Petroleum Institute, a trade association for America’s oil and natural gas industry. They warned that “man is now engaged in a vast geophysical experiment with his environment, the earth” — one that “may be the cause of serious world-wide environmental changes.”

The scientists went on: “If the Earth’s temperature increases significantly, a number of events might be expected to occur including the melting of the Antarctic ice cap, a rise in sea levels, warming of the oceans and an increase in photosynthesis.”

That 48-year-old report, which accurately foreshadowed what’s now happening, is among a trove of public documents uncovered and released Wednesday by the Washington-based Center for International Environmental Law. Taken together, documents that the organization has assembled show that oil executives were well aware of the serious climate risks associated with carbon dioxide emissions decades earlier than previously documented — and they covered it up.

Carroll Muffett, the center’s president, told The Huffington Post the documents not only reveal that the industry, including Humble Oil (now Exxon Mobil), was “clearly on notice” about the potential role of fossil fuels in CO2 emissions no later than 1957, but was “shaping science to shape public opinion” even earlier, in the 1940s.

“This story is older and it is bigger than I think has been appreciated before,” Muffett said.
The Center for International Environmental Law, or CIEL, a nonprofit legal organization, said it traced the industry’s coordinated, decades-long cover-up back to a 1946 meeting in Los Angeles by combing through scientific articles, industry histories and other documents.

It was during that meeting that the oil executives decided to form a group — the Smoke and Fumes Committee — to “fund scientific research into smog and other air pollution issues and, significantly, use that research to inform and shape public opinion about environmental issues,” CIEL says on a new website devoted to the documents.

That research, CIEL says, was used to “promote public skepticism of environmental science and environmental regulations the industry considered hasty, costly, and potentially unnecessary.”

Muffett said in a statement that the documents “add to the growing body of evidence that the oil industry worked to actively undermine public confidence in climate science and in the need for climate action even as its own knowledge of climate risks was growing.”

Last year, InsideClimate News revealed that top executives at Exxon knew about the role of fossil fuels in global warming as early as 1977, then lobbied against efforts to cut greenhouse gas emissions. In January, the New York attorney general announced an investigation into ExxonMobil over allegations that it lied to the public and its investors about climate change.

A report that surfaced in February revealed the American Petroleum Institute knew about climate change in the early 1980s.

The industry group did not respond to HuffPost’s requests for comment Wednesday.

CIEL’s new documents, however, show that the cover-up has endured for a generation or more.

Story continues below...

Quoting 151. CaneFreeCR:

Vis0, you hit a nerve! It logically should be 3 consecutive overlapping 3-month stretches with Niño 3.4 at or below 0.5 anomaly to get out of El Niño, but does it have to pass through neutral under those parameters before transitioning to La Niña? Or does it only have to be below +.5 anomaly for the three-overlapping-three-month-periods to be declared La Niña? Logic would say it has to be into the below -.5 region for the period to qualify, but it's really not very clear, is it?
The criteria, that is often used to classify El Niño episodes, is that
five consecutive 3-month running mean SST anomalies exceed the
threshold.

source: https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/teleconnections/enso/ind icators/sst.php
Quoting 151. CaneFreeCR:

Vis0, you hit a nerve!..., but it's really not very clear, is it?


It's clear...it is 5 consecutive three month averages that are over lapping. For it to be La Nina those 5 consecutive months of the three month averages have to be equal to -0.5 or below.

ONI is the three month running average. Each month gets an ONI score. You need five consecutive months of an ONI score that falls within the bounds of la Nina, neutral or El Nino for those conditions to be declared an official event. Official definitions from page 20 here.
There is some variations between "conditions" and an "official full-fledged event" as well.

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3 month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST
departures meet or exceed +/-0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These
anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months



If ENSO rapidly cools it can spend very little time in a neutral condition before going La Nina. 1973 had two months where ONI was neutral before going La Nina. 1998 only had 1 month neutral as it made the switch. It can be quite sudden.

Low this morning was 64.3F, Santa Ana Wind Event in progress, currently 68.9F wind N6,G23,RH14%
Experts Question AccuWeather’s New 90-Day Forecast
It might be best to think of this forecast as a weather fortune cookie, scientists warn.
04/15/2016 05:06 pm ET


Michael McLaughlin
Reporter
Do you wake up in the morning and wonder if you’ll need an umbrella today? How about what you’ll need three months from now?

AccuWeather is aiming to answer both questions with its new 90-day forecast, launched this week. The calendar predicts the high and low temperatures, precipitation, sky conditions and other pieces of weather data with surprising specificity.

The company heralded the free forecast on Monday by claiming that it’s “providing users with the most advanced notice and detailed information on local weather conditions.”

Just don’t confuse the report’s specificity with accuracy, according to meteorologists. Many agree that it’s impossible to predict the weather of any given day that far in advance.

“We’re kind of gobsmacked by this,” said Alison Bridger, chairwoman of San Jose State University’s Department of Meteorology and Climate Science. “It’s inconceivable that they could know it’s going to be rainy in New York on May 9 ... unless they’ve got some deeper, new scientific understanding that they haven’t told us about yet.”

AccuWeather did not immediately respond to HuffPost’s inquiries, but company President Joel Myers responded to questions about the forecast’s reliability on NPR.

“All of our forecasts are based on the latest science,” he said. “This forecast will give you information that will be better than you can have figured out in any other way.”

John Nielsen-Gammon, Texas’ state climatologist, said it is possible to talk about weather conditions far into the future — such as whether El Nino will produce a wetter winter on the West Coast or if temperatures over a period will be above normal due to greenhouse gas levels.
“You can make guesses weeks or months or even years into the future,” said Nielsen-Gammon, “but the thing you can’t do is say that one day is going to have particularly different weather than a day before or after.”

That didn’t stop AccuWeather from doubling down on its long range forecasts. The site previously told users what to expect 45 days ahead of time.

AccuWeather is a private company based in Pennsylvania that offers some paid services to broadcasters and other clients, as well as free information on its website. It’s carved out a niche with specialized forecasts. At the other end of the spectrum, the company provides MinuteCast, which spells out minute-by-minute when there will be precipitation over the next two hours.

If AccuWeather is shown to be on target with its 90-day forecasts, it would represent a remarkable breakthrough. The best weather models used by the National Weather Service and foreign governments have a much more limited lifespan.

At five days out, forecasts seen on news broadcasts are fairly solid, but many experts agree that their accuracy evaporates after 14 days.

In AccuWeather’s defense, its announcement about the 90-day forecast avoided any guarantees on its precision. A separate post on the company’s website warned that “people should not use long-range forecasts as a strict guide, but rather look at how the weather patterns evolve.”

It’s likely that users will grant AccuWeather a wide amount of leeway by making projections so far in advance. Colorado’s climatologist and Colorado State University professor Nolan Doesken compared the 90-day forecast to the enduring popularity of the Farmer’s Almanac, which produced long-range forecasts months before publishing the annual book.

“From a customer perspective, there is a demand for this service whether its accurate or not,” he said.

Quoting 155. Skyepony:



It's clear...it is 5 consecutive three month averages that are over lapping. For it to be La Nina those 5 consecutive months of the three month averages have to be equal to -0.5 or below.
(snip)
So if Region 3.4 had dropped below -0.5 on March 31, it would be September before La Niña would be declared (assuming the temps stayed below -0.5), correct?
159. vis0


Quoting 120. swflurker:

Had to chuckle on that one.
When my sister moved to Naples, one on her first comments were, "It wouldn't be so d@@n hot here, if you didn't run your AC's." She moved here from central WI.


There is some truth to that quote and not just physically but mentally.

Here in NYc we had a mini blackout/brown out 15-20 yrs ago.

It was summer in the 90F range.

Brown out mid afternoon to blackout  ~11 mins later and temps went down 2 degree in 12 mins though it was ~430pm (no clouds)  More impressive was ones brain felt clearer more relaxed . Father said that, 5 neighbors that were outside and did not know of the blackout for the first 15 mins told me has it was a healthy cooling and more relax feel. (till on thinks MY FRIDGE, THE FOOD!, the imprisoned goldfish!)

Anyone seen update studies on how much all these AC's exhausts and more important electronic humming interfere with the brains correct flow in  its info-processing abilities?

Saw some studies from the 1960s but not pointing to that URL even if it stated some of the dangers, as study was incomplete. Much later study in i think 2002 to 2004 when i first joined WxU and had a comment on that.(different username, vis0 was later)

For transportation/work i think AC is needed as doors open and close as in the NYc subway where the doors opening & closing allow the air to change from the cold stinky air to the hotter stinky air (ya wonder why you don't see fahbreeze tryouts in REAL NYc subway cars).
But when the area being cooled is enclosed to keep cooler air inside (as in homes/Apts) to save money in a weird way - weird as in save $$ by trapping cooled air in but raise costs by how the energy is created and in health cost from illnesses enhanced by trapped air, i still remember coworkers going out to lunch and how much better their allergies cleared up or nerves less jittery for that lunch hour spent outside in the spring or summer heat. i think allergies are more easily triggered when air goes through electronic systems as AC. Sure if AC is well cleaned it has important uses for people whom are really sick, but most people i think damage their immune system when living inside AC controlled areas. Remember what we breath in is the start of our life from that well balanced air a well balanced immune system thus better balanced human being can flourish. i wonder how much better off humans would be if AC were only used outside the home or at least raise thermostat to 78-80F at home. We might find this out the hard way by 2080AD when countries pass laws that only transportation/business can have AC to keep a productive workforce as oil shortages will force that action.
Side notes:: The use of oils that in part come from drilling that are used for makeup will also be banned, i know much is lab processed therefore less of that drilled oil but it all interconnected somewhere. Not to mention what if some sort of bacteria that thrives in warmer climates become more prevalent at pole ward Latitudes due to the warmer planet, will ALL AC units that have ducts that tend to hold specific droplet sizes that when static (not evaporating fast enough) become homes for growing bacteria so those AC units will be closed to avoid the spread of those bacteria.

Imagine if areas of air could have holographic DOExp. on them.
You'd notice that the enclosed air one is breathing is mostly expired as to its maximum health benefits. (if not NATURALLY circulating, as in being forced through devices that ~charge the air via its grounded body) Its expiration date/time might expire every ~2-7 hrs depending on how clean ones AC (filters) are.

MOST KNOW THE FOLLOWING, just a reminder. Turn on AC during the low angle sunshine. If when you turn on your AC and the inside panel looks like a snow machine from all the dust suddenly being forced out being back-lit by the sunshine...uh...clean the filters (wear mask and clean in a manner as not to reintroduce into the already stale air more pollutants caught by the filter.

Remember nature deals the cards. If we play fair (sure make lots of money, but do it by flowing with nature not against nature) nature gives a warning time to all weather/natural extremes, which humans can figure out via studying / observing nature and honing on the highlights of those observations through science.  So start asking representatives to support LAB studies to create a new better , healthier chemical or devices that can take the place of oil in its use to manufacture products and in its use to supply energy, START STUDIES NOW as it takes 30-50 years to figure something new by then it will be just in the nick of ,time.

THINK want to remove CO2 , try an acupuncture like method  from outside the orbit of Earth. Where some long object that can withstand heat (metal, composites) from not the hottest / friction area of the atmosphere but further out therefore one will discover other sprite like outflows that might help change CO2 into something more healthy and have a lower "shelf" (half) life. Try creating a mold (specific type of plastic...think static or not)  that covers (when built/joined) at least 1/6th of Earth surface BUT again on the outside of Earth where its almost close enough to star to friction but does not. As this concave plastic design to fit around the globes oblate shape as it stay in the orbit and position if the material is built to the proper thickness no less that threefold no more than six fold see if gases in the atmosphere react/change. FIRST CREATE scale sizes enclosed multi- skinned globes with gases in them and try this outside the space shuttle.
Sent this to spaceX a year ago when someone here post spaceX's creator was looking for ideas to lower CO2. (Tune to ARTHUR playing in the background)  No reply, even posted how to use a silicone band around where ever their rockets land (even on barges, that version in a youtube VID) that can snap around the rocket if the rocket begins to tip over thus the silicone band "captures" the rocket from falling  and breaking and therefore the rocket can be studied to see what went wrong instead of trying to study a more xtra-damaged rocket after breaking up and/or blowing apart.
I just about to ask the same thing?...I dont see anything on the long range in what is still an el nino setup and a very dry western caribbean with very strong westerly upper level winds.
I see a below average season with everything sheared to death and sal doing its part in the caribbean. I think a persistent drought setup with a slight chance of a weak TS. Now the gulf is another thing....
Quoting 125. ackee:

what pattern are u observing now that makes u think the carribbean is in for a bad year ?? according to crown weather preseason forecast the carribbean should see below normal activity for me I wait until July to see how trade winds are dry air etc to see what will be in store for the region
You guys are downcasting the Caribbean for this season way too much
This is gonna be the year for Caribbean and GOM

Let just wait and see
I don't know if it's because you guys lost hope because of the last few years of not having anything much in the Caribbean
Quoting 125. ackee:

what pattern are u observing now that makes u think the carribbean is in for a bad year ?? according to crown weather preseason forecast the carribbean should see below normal activity for me I wait until July to see how trade winds are dry air etc to see what will be in store for the region
The CFS actually shows a pretty favorable caribbean with slow trades,below normal wind shear and very warm sst with ample moisture.The Euro also shows near average moisture in the caribbean as well.
Quoting 161. wunderkidcayman:

You guys are downcasting the Caribbean for this season way too much
This is gonna be the year for Caribbean and GOM

Let just wait and see
Well we just don't know what's going to happen in the ENSO region. Also the other factors, including temperatures, trade winds, and the North Atlantic blob. So I agree with them.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
FLASH FLOOD WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 1210 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
166. ackee
Quoting 162. wunderkidcayman:

I don't know if it's because you guys lost hope because of the last few years of not having anything much in the Caribbean maybe your right
167. ackee
Quoting 162. wunderkidcayman:

I don't know if it's because you guys lost hope because of the last few years of not having anything much in the Caribbean maybe your right
168. ackee
Quoting 163. washingtonian115:

The CFS actually shows a pretty favorable caribbean with slow trades,below normal wind shear and very warm sst with ample moisture.The Euro also shows near average moisture in the caribbean as well. Great point but I just wait and see the Caribbean as been hostile for the past couple of season I am waiting to see how it looks in July lol
169. ackee
Quoting 160. 19N81W:

I just about to ask the same thing?...I dont see anything on the long range in what is still an el nino setup and a very dry western caribbean with very strong westerly upper level winds.
I see a below average season with everything sheared to death and sal doing its part in the caribbean. I think a persistent drought setup with a slight chance of a weak TS. Now the gulf is another thing....
spot on I have ser it to believe it
Quoting 145. Neapolitan:


Now, here's something you can take to the bank: global temperatures will *not* "fall back significantly in 2017", or in any other year in the foreseeable future. Yes, the effects of the El Nino are fading, and the current temperature spike will abate. But the long-term, multi-decadal rise in global temperatures we've been seeing will continue for as long as any of us are alive. Temperatures have been above the long-term average since the mid-80s; to fall below that average will take an asteroid strike, a supervolcanic eruption, or all-out thermonuclear war. Absent that, things will just keep heating up.

Quite. Forget about all those hockey sticks -- I call it a quantum leap, just to coin a more spectacular term for what is going on. Which means that after a big jump, GW will finally peter out, but on a level I don't want to imagine.
The Doom-nayers should finally realize that their business is doomed.
Looking more like and east coast season.
Ugh
Can't remember a season in recent memory where the tchp was so spread out.



spinner off the east coast drifts s sw then pulls n ne then nw deepens into significant event for eastern Canada just east of the Avalon of newfoundland
Quoting 171. Gearsts:

Looking more like and east coast season.



Not sure with this rapidly decreasing El-Nino setup. But we'll have to wait and see. Last year was dominated by storms just off the east coast of the U.S. We had a lot of near misses.
The Caribbean and GOM have been completely shut down lately. But I think the Caribbean and GOM will become more favorable this season and we'll see a few storms.
I think it will all depend on how quickly we see this transformation over to La-Nina conditions.
Typical influence of La Nina on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity. Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals by Gerry Bell.
These impacts are primarily caused by changes in the vertical wind shear, which refers to the change in wind speed and direction between roughly 5,000-35,000 ft. above the ground. Strong vertical wind shear can rip a developing hurricane apart, or even prevent it from forming.

Link
2015/16 compare


2005 compare
My sister is in the Turks and Caicos right now. She goes down there with her friends every Spring. The water temperature probably feels just right.

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR SOUTH FLORIDA.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

RIP CURRENTS: THERE IS A HIGH RISK FOR RIP CURRENTS ACROSS ALL OF
THE ATLANTIC BEACHES FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO BROWARD
AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES.

THUNDERSTORMS: NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP
ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA, MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
THE PRIMARY HAZARDS FROM THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE STRONG WIND,
FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING STRIKE, AND HAIL.

WATERSPOUTS: CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF
ISOLATED WATERSPOUTS, MAINLY ALONG THE ATLANTIC COASTAL AND
INTRACOASTAL WATERS FROM PALM BEACH COUNTY SOUTHWARD TO BROWARD
AND MIAMI DADE COUNTIES.

WIND: ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WIND GUSTS UP TO 55 MPH ARE POSSIBLE
IN THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST AND
SOUTHERN INTERIOR AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA. IN ADDITION, WINDS WILL
BECOME NORTHEAST AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS THIS AFTERNOON ON ATLANTIC
WATERS, AND A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT.

HAIL: THERE IS A CHANCE OF HAIL TO THE SIZE OF NICKELS WITH
THE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR SOUTHWEST AND
EXTREME SOUTHERN AREAS OF SOUTH FLORIDA WHERE HAIL UP TO QUARTER
SIZE.
182. vis0

Quoting 136. NativeSun:

Flood insurance is provided by the Federal Government, not from your local insurance companies, so I highly doubt it will go up as much as you think.
partially correct (The Fed part) (sit down FedEx driver with the noisy truck, did not call for a delivery)

The mistake i think is to forget the reason Fed Insu. rates might go up at a greater amount in which usually rates that high are via "privately" held insurance ranges. The Fed rates stayed lower 'cause the gov was basing its flood insurance on science ,not greed.
 
Reality check, (BOUNCES) is that your grandchildren's NORMAL FLOODING will come from a higher ocean so from the start that future eras flooding will create more damage.

BUT if one waits 300 to 400 years since the coastline will have to be rebuilt then Fed. costs might average out a bit (though less land, land rates rise) since by then humans would have built higher off the ground structures otherwise they are an island amongst themselves without the basic services as all working infrastructure has to connect at a higher "underground" or above ground by then.

Weird ...think, if flooding does reach what is halfway to the max. of recent long scientific predictions , by 2150AD (AD or UW) NYC subway underground system will have to built higher than the original NYC Trolley cars. NYC tourist guides will point under their feet while riding a subway car and try to explain how the trolley cars and horse carriages use to ride there (under the ground) and tourist will quickly flip through their translation pamphlets to look up the word "crazy" and "Bellevue hospitals hotline".


Another costly fact as to GW/aGW the amount of times all business that use sea level datum have to now update it more frequently as before a 50 yr old map with sea levels could be used by regular folk, soon if it rises 3-6 times faster those maps have to destroyed (adjusted if electronic) otherwise some will sue when they have some mishap that occurred due to the old sea level notes/datum.

At first it might not seem as bad, as the sea going down exposes rocks but in time sea going up will turn inhabited islands into what looks like rocks just waiting for some drunk sailor to hit it.
Expect more MDR cooling.
Sad day.Dr William Gray has passed away at 86. RIP.

@philklotzbach
Dr. Bill Gray has passed away. A giant in the field of hurricanes, an amazing mentor, and a great friend.

Eulogy

Quoting 185. Tropicsweatherpr:

Sad day.William Gray has died RIP.

Philip Klotzbach
‏@philklotzbach
Dr. Bill Gray has passed away. A giant in the field of hurricanes, an amazing mentor, and a great friend.





my condolences to his family and friends........he definitely advances the science of tropical systems
The death of Dr. William Gray is a loss for all of America and tropical meteorology especially.

His was a life well lived.

We send our thoughts and prayers to His family and friends.



188. vis0

Quoting 155. Skyepony:



It's clear...it is 5 consecutive three month averages that are over lapping. For it to be La Nina those 5 consecutive months of the three month averages have to be equal to -0.5 or below.

ONI is the three month running average. Each month gets an ONI score. You need five consecutive months of an ONI score that falls within the bounds of la Nina, neutral or El Nino for those conditions to be declared an official event. Official definitions from page 20 here.
There is some variations between "conditions" and an "official full-fledged event" as well.

NOAA Operational Definitions for El Niño and La Niña
El Niño: characterized by a positive ONI greater than or equal to +0.5ºC.
La Niña: characterized by a negative ONI less than or equal to -0.5ºC. By historical standards, to be classified as a full-fledged El Niño or La Niña episode, these thresholds must be exceeded for a period of at least 5 consecutive overlapping 3 month seasons.

CPC considers El Niño or La Niña conditions to occur when the monthly Niño3.4 OISST
departures meet or exceed +/-0.5ºC along with consistent atmospheric features. These
anomalies must also be forecasted to persist for 3 consecutive months



If ENSO rapidly cools it can spend very little time in a neutral condition before going La Nina. 1973 had two months where ONI was neutral before going La Nina. 1998 only had 1 month neutral as it made the switch. It can be quite sudden.
Then Neutral seems to have lost its or has no importance as its being thought as just passing by.
One only hears is it Nina or Nino when we should be hearing in the news or science pages as to how short neutral is becoming
See i thought that by giving neutral as much importance as Nino or Nina (or any other flavour of atmospheric blending ENSO influences) one better tracks when the globes went into a more unhealthy phase.  To me Nino or Nina changing quickly is a sign of a unhealthily biosphere. but i could be 99.9%.


Paris climate deal on target, two years ahead of schedule
The UN climate chief has said that the Paris climate agreement could swing into action as early as 2018, two years earlier than expected.

By Jason Thomson, Staff APRIL 14, 2016


Paris climate deal on target, two years ahead of schedule

The UN climate chief has said that the Paris climate agreement could swing into action as early as 2018, two years earlier than expected.
By Jason Thomson, Staff APRIL 14, 2016


The global deal reached at the Paris climate conference of December 2015 could come into force two years ahead of schedule, according to comments Monday by Christiana Figueres, the United Nations' climate chief.

The agreement was originally intended to swing into action in 2020, but this requires only that it be signed and ratified by 55 countries representing 55 percent of the world's total emissions. That target appears likely to be reached well in advance of the original deadline.

A huge step in that direction is to take place on April 22, when at least 130 countries are expected to come together in New York and sign the agreement, shattering the current record held by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, signed Dec. 10, 1982 by 119 countries.

But signing and ratifying the paperwork is just the first step, albeit a vital one, and it is what comes next, the actions taken to implement the agreement’s targets, that will hold the power to catalyze substantial change.

"We are two minutes to midnight on climate change. If you ask me, the Paris agreement is 10 years too late," said Ms. Figueres, executive secretary of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

The deal reached in Paris set a target of keeping global temperature rise below 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, and in order to achieve that, said Figueres, the global community is going to have to make a gargantuan effort to switch to clean energy and low-carbon infrastructure.

Figueres likened the effort required to achieve this, according to Reuters, to the mammoth undertaking of reconstruction following the devastation of World War II.

Considering the drive to convert to clean energy, there were glimmers of light amid the gloom, as Figueres noted the substantial reduction in the costs associated with solar and wind energy, which have dropped 80 percent and 40 percent respectively since 2008.

"The quality of investment today equals the quality of energy tomorrow – equals the quality of life forever," Figueres said. "It is not correct to think we are going to deal with climate change tomorrow. We have to deal with it today."

The aim is to reach a status of "net zero emissions," whereby no more greenhouse gases are produced than can be absorbed by trees and other systems – and if this target remains unmet, it will be the poor who pay the price, said Figueres.

"It's a simple relation: more carbon equals more poverty," she said. "Net zero emissions is the only way to make poverty eradication possible."

Material from Reuters was used in this report.
Quoting 161. wunderkidcayman:

You guys are downcasting the Caribbean for this season way too much
This is gonna be the year for Caribbean and GOM

Let just wait and see


If I follow your logic, every year is the year of the Caribbean and GOM :)
Quoting 190. CaribBoy:



If I follow your logic, every year is the year of the Caribbean and GOM :)


One year WKC will be correct...
Changing climate:
10 years after An Inconvenient Truth

Link
Well said Patrap post 187 prayers for his family.
Quoting 190. CaribBoy:



If I follow your logic, every year is the year of the Caribbean and GOM :)
Last year he said the same thing.
URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 93
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
220 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE
EASTERN TEXAS PANHANDLE

* EFFECTIVE THIS SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING FROM 220 PM UNTIL
900 PM CDT.

* PRIMARY THREATS INCLUDE...
A COUPLE TORNADOES POSSIBLE
SCATTERED LARGE HAIL AND ISOLATED VERY LARGE HAIL EVENTS TO 2
INCHES IN DIAMETER POSSIBLE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND GUSTS TO 70 MPH POSSIBLE

SUMMARY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY THIS
AFTERNOON ALONG THE DRYLINE OVER THE TEXAS PANHANDLE...TRACKING
NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE WATCH AREA. LARGE HAIL IS THE MAIN THREAT
WITH THESE STORMS...BUT AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO IS ALSO POSSIBLE.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 45 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL KANSAS TO 100 MILES
SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF CHILDRESS TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF
THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS
WOU3).

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

&&
Quoting 190. CaribBoy:



If I follow your logic, every year is the year of the Caribbean and GOM :)


Wishcasting
Everyone should hope the Caribbean and the GOM stays unfriendly for development.




College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 414 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 413 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 411 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 404 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 359 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 350 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 349 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 342 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 316 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 255 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING AMARILLO TX - KAMA 231 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0396
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0353 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

AREAS AFFECTED...SWRN THROUGH WCNTRL TX

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH POSSIBLE

VALID 162053Z - 162200Z

PROBABILITY OF WATCH ISSUANCE...60 PERCENT

SUMMARY...THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND
INTENSITY TOWARD EARLY EVENING. SUPERCELLS WITH LARGE HAIL AND A
COUPLE OF TORNADOES WILL BE THE INITIAL PRIMARY THREATS BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO DAMAGING WIND. TRENDS IN SATELLITE AND HI-RES MODEL
DATA SUGGEST THE MORE ROBUST AND WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
WILL PROBABLY HOLD OFF UNTIL SHORTLY AFTER 00Z. SHORT TERM TRENDS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED...AND A WW WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED AT
SOME POINT DURING THE EARLY EVENING.

DISCUSSION...LATE THIS AFTERNOON A DIFFERENTIAL-HEATING BOUNDARY
EXTENDS FROM WRN PORTION OF SCNTRL TX NWWD TO NEAR LUBBOCK WHERE IT
INTERSECTS A DRYLINE THAT IS LOCATED FROM THE TX PANHANDLE NEAR
AMARILLO SWD TO JUST WEST OF SANDERSON. A FEW HIGH BASED STORMS ARE
DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN POST DRYLINE ENVIRONMENT NEAR
FORT STOCKTON. ADDITIONAL STORMS ARE DEVELOPING NORTH OF SAN ANGELO
ALONG THE AFOREMENTIONED BOUNDARY...BUT ARE MOVING ONTO THE COOL
SIDE SHORTLY AFTER INITIATION. A COUPLE OF SUPERCELLS MAY EVOLVE AS
THE STORMS CROSS THE BOUNDARY...ESPECIALLY AS THE NEAR-SFC LAYER
CONTINUES TO MODIFY WITH ADDITIONAL DIABATIC WARMING. GIVEN CAPPING
ISSUES IN WARM SECTOR...NEAR-TERM COVERAGE OF STORMS WILL PROBABLY
REMAIN ISOLATED.

ANOTHER LOBE OF VORTICITY WITH DEEPER ASCENT IS ROTATING THROUGH
BASE OF UPPER LOW AND MOVING EWD THROUGH SRN HIGH PLAINS. THIS ZONE
OF ASCENT WILL EVENTUALLY INTERCEPT THE DRYLINE...COINCIDENT WITH
STRENGTHENING LLJ. THESE PROCESSES SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO EVENTUAL
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE ROBUST STORMS DURING THE EARLY EVENING WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT SUPPORTIVE OF ORGANIZED STORMS INCLUDING SUPERCELLS
BEFORE STORMS GROW UPSCALE.

..DIAL/HART.. 04/16/2016


ATTN...WFO...EWX...SJT...MAF...

Quoting 194. Gearsts:

Last year he said the same thing.
Lol.The caribbean practically had a "dead zone" sign over head of it all last year and in 2014.The trades were like a major high way in 2013 sending storms to their deaths.However looking at the long term climate models the caribbean may come to life this year and have the best chance of seeing activity since 2012.

Rita is a wonderful reminder of how lucky the people along the coastline have been during these past few years.
Quoting 190. CaribBoy:



If I follow your logic, every year is the year of the Caribbean and GOM :)


Not true
If we follow your logic we would see a few major hurricanes over you for the past 4 or so years

Quoting 194. Gearsts:

Last year he said the same thing.


Which I was wrong and I will rightfully take that but this year will indeed be different
Although last year I thought it will be in Modki El Niño not a near record classic El Niño

Quoting 196. Bucsboltsfan:



Wishcasting

I don't wishcast that's what CaribBoy Scott Taz and you do

Anyway we will see what happens
NCSU released their 2016 forecast yesterday: 15-18 named storms, 8-11 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes. I think the Atlantic will be slightly above average, but this is almost certainly an overestimate IMO. Just like they underestimated last year, predicting only 4-6 storms.
Quoting 187. Patrap:

The death of Dr. William Gray is a loss for all of America and tropical meteorology especially.

His was a life well lived.

We send our thoughts and prayers to His family and friends.






Damn it, 2016. What the hell's the matter with you.

Condolences go to his family. May he thrive in Sto-Vo-Kor. (Klingon Heaven)
Hurricane Charley (2004) was the big wake up call for S.W. Florida. Prior to Hurricane Charley, the last major hurricane to hit this area was Hurricane Donna back in 1960. Most people weren't here to experience that storm.

Hurricane Charley formed deep in the Caribbean. Charley then crossed Cuba and eventually made landfall on north Captiva Island just west of Fort Myers. It was a small storm, but it had a big punch.

RIP Dr. Gray. Tropical weather will not be the same without you. Condolences to your family and friends.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 603 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 600 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 555 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
TORNADO WARNING     LUBBOCK TX - KLUB 547 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
Quoting 205. HurricaneFan:

NCSU released their 2016 forecast yesterday: 15-18 named storms, 8-11 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes. I think the Atlantic will be slightly above average, but this is almost certainly an overestimate IMO. Just like they underestimated last year, predicting only 4-6 storms.
ya I was at 17 to 19 systems but it may be more like 22 to 24 systems 8 too 12 of which will be canes 4 too 6 of them majors with at least a potential of 3 of them making landfall on continental united states

but it will change hopefully not towards even higher numbers
Parts of Texas may have serious flooding if this pans out...

Quoting 211. hydrus:

Texas may have serious flooding if this pans out...


ya an ark event
Quoting 202. washingtonian115:

Lol.The caribbean practically had a "dead zone" sign over head of it all last year and in 2014.The trades were like a major high way in 2013 sending storms to their deaths.However looking at the long term climate models the caribbean may come to life this year and have the best chance of seeing activity since 2012.


Yes I say looking at long term Caribbean may become more alive than what it was in 2010 we may even see a 2008 or 2007 this year

Things are changing this year just wait and see
Quoting 213. wunderkidcayman:



Yes I say looking at long term Caribbean may become more alive than what it was in 2010 we may even see a 2008 or 2007 this year

Things are changing this year just wait and see
yep and you wont even be their watch this will be the year Caymans get smacked hard
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
TORNADO WARNING     SAN ANGELO TX - KSJT 628 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016
SVR T-STORM WARNING MIDLAND/ODESSA TX - KMAF 621 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

 



Orleans Parish  Severe Watches & WarningsNOAA Weather Radio

Watches & WarningsCoastal Flood AdvisoryIssued: 3:48 PM CDT Apr. 16, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Coastal Flood Advisory remains in effect until 7 PM CDT
Sunday...

* coastal flooding... Hancock County Mississippi coast and east
facing shores of southeast Louisiana extending from the Pearl
River to the Mississippi River... including areas surrounding
lakes Pontchartrain and Maurepas. Tide levels of one to two
and half feet above normal can be expected.

* Timing... now through Sunday evening.

* Impacts... tides 1 to 2.5 feet above normal will lead to
inundation of low lying coastal roadways and areas normally
subject to coastal flooding during high tides outside
protection levees.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A coastal Flood Advisory indicates that onshore winds and tides
will combine to generate flooding of low areas along the shore.



24/rr

March 2016 Was Hottest on Record by Greatest Margin Yet Seen for Any Month

Deirdre Fulton, Common Dreams | April 1


Earth is on a roll.

Adding “yet another month to a new mountain chain of extreme global temperature peaks,” March 2016 was the warmest since at least 1891, according to the Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA).


The JMA’s findings are likely to be confirmed by forthcoming reports from the UK Met Office as well as NASA and NOAA, whose satellite data indicates last month was the warmest March in records dating to 1979.

Scientists have pinned the record warmth to a combination of human-caused climate change and this year’s strong El Niño event.

Responding to the news, professor Michael Mann, a climate scientist at Penn State University, told the Guardian: “Wow. I continue to be shocked by what we are seeing.”

“The [new data] is a reminder of how perilously close we now are to permanently crossing into dangerous territory,” Mann said. “It underscores the urgency of reducing global carbon emissions.”

As Common Dreams reported, last month’s NASA data showed that February 2016 was not only the hottest in recorded history, but it soared past all previous records, prompting scientists to describe the announcement as “an ominous milestone in our march toward an ever-warmer planet.”

Meanwhile, NOAA said last week that March 2016 was among the warmest on record for the contiguous United States, and that Alaska had seen “its warmest start to the year on record, while 32 states across the West, Great Plains, Midwest and Northeast were much warmer than average” between January and March.

What’s more, pointed out NOAA climatologist Deke Arndt in a blog post this week, “If you were alive during March 2016, and I’m betting you were, you witnessed U.S. history.”

“One stunning feature from the March 2016 temperature map was just how universally warm the month was,” wrote Arndt. “Every one of the 357 climate divisions across the contiguous United States and Alaska ended up—at least—in the ‘warmer than normal’ category.”

Quoting 210. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya I was at 17 to 19 systems but it may be more like 22 to 24 systems 8 too 12 of which will be canes 4 too 6 of them majors with at least a potential of 3 of them making landfall on continental united states

but it will change hopefully not towards even higher numbers

I think 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes with an ACE near ~130. If the AMO was more positive we would likely have a 20 named storm season.
Quoting 205. HurricaneFan:

NCSU released their 2016 forecast yesterday: 15-18 named storms, 8-11 hurricanes, 3-5 major hurricanes. I think the Atlantic will be slightly above average, but this is almost certainly an overestimate IMO. Just like they underestimated last year, predicting only 4-6 storms.


I agree with NCSU
Quoting 212. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

ya an ark event


And massive damage to property. To say nothing of downed trees and power lines.
Quoting 221. wunderkidcayman:



I agree with NCSU
lol
Really big mess in Japan, enhanced by weather:
Japan earthquake: Thousands spend night in cold and wet
BBC, 26 minutes ago
Tens of thousands of people have spent a cold and wet night in temporary shelters following two powerful earthquakes that struck the south-west Japanese island of Kyushu.
More than 240,000 people were urged to evacuate the area amid fears heavy rain could bring landslides and further damage, local media reported.
There is concern for dozens of people feared trapped under rubble.
More than 40 people were killed in Thursday and Saturday's quakes.
About 2,000 people were treated for injuries and nearly 200 are said to be in a serious condition. ...

Photos and videos see link above.

Japan earthquakes: Rescuers race against landslides to reach trapped victims
ABC, updated 11 minutes ago


Simulation of the weather for Japan tomorrow with more rain arriving in the quake stricken south of the country.
Quoting 220. HurricaneFan:


I think 16 named storms, 7 hurricanes, 3 major hurricanes with an ACE near ~130. If the AMO was more positive we would likely have a 20 named storm season.
well it could still get more positive long way away t-45 days and one already on the marker
Quoting 203. washingtonian115:


Rita is a wonderful reminder of how lucky the people along the coastline have been during these past few years.



Yes, we have been lucky. Hope it continues.
tomorrow could be our first 70 degree day of the season summer comes fast
you should turn off yer computer if one ever comes towards ya so to give you time too prepare for the storm
Quoting 225. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:




What would that be if it were over water?
Quoting 230. pureet1948:



What would that be if it were over water?
an upper level cutoff low


Dear KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

If I read this correctly, most of the heavy rain and severe weather looks like it's going to take place Northwest to North, to northeast of H-town. Could you please double check for me and make sure?


P.S. for comparison, here's the NAM 4K, if you prefer.



nice little sea storm
Quoting 231. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

an upper level cutoff low



And if this were hurricane season?
Quoting 233. pureet1948:



Dear KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

If I read this correctly, most of the heavy rain and severe weather looks like it's going to take place Northwest to North, to northeast of H-town. Could you please double check for me and make sure?
I check same things you check always consult local/national weather office for all official forecasts
Quoting 235. pureet1948:




And if this were hurricane season?
same thing front would have too separate from the center of low pressure become stacked at 300 500 and 700 layers with low shear and work down too the surface to draw off the heat engine of the open water to create a hurricane

anything else


Quoting 236. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I check same things you check always consult local/national weather office for all official forecasts


Not a forecast, but just as good, KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

Share |



Hazardous Weather Outlook
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
259 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>23 8-172000-
AUSTIN-BRAZORIA-BRAZOS-BURLESON-CHAMBERS-COLORADO -FORT BEND-
GALVESTON-GRIMES-HARRIS-HOUSTON-JACKSON-LIBERTY-M ADISON-MATAGORDA-
MONTGOMERY-POLK-SAN JACINTO-TRINITY-WALKER-WALLER-WASHINGTON-
WHARTON-
259 PM CDT SAT APR 16 2016

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT

HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

THERE IS A THREAT FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLOODING SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO TUESDAY. THE MAIN CONCERN WILL BE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING FOR A LARGE PORTION OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
MORNING FOR AREAS WEST OF INTERSTATE 45...AND MONDAY MAINLY OVER
COLORADO...WHARTON AND JACKSON COUNTIES
. MAIN THREATS WILL BE
DAMAGING WINDS AND POSSIBLE A BRIEF TORNADO.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY NIGHT.
7.4 magnitude quake off the Ecuador Coast

by PHIL HELSEL
SHARE

A 7.8-magnitude earthquake struck near Ecuador's coast Saturday, the United States Geological Survey said.

The temblor struck just before 7 p.m. local time (8 p.m. ET) around 16 miles south-southeast of the coastal town of Muisne, located on the country's Pacific shore, the USGS said. The quake was recorded at a depth of about 12 miles.

With a quake of that magnitude damage is expected, but the USGS did not immediately receive any reports of damage or injuries, a geophysicist with the agency told NBC News. A tsunami is not expected, the USGS said.

I just saw that Bill Gray passed.
http://www.9news.com/news/local/hurricane-forecas t-pioneer-bill-gray-dead-at-age-86/137721024
Quoting 241. jitterboy:

I just saw that Bill Gray passed.
http://www.9news.com/news/local/hurricane-forecas t-pioneer-bill-gray-dead-at-age-86/137721024


Sorry to hear it.
243. vis0
qUAKE IN eQUADOR  SEE CMMNT 240 ABOVE

Wxu member posted a few days ago as to his health, Rest in PEACE Dr. Grey
The 384 hour GFS precip forecast seems a little eager.

Quoting 244. nofailsafe:

The 384 hour GFS precip forecast seems a little eager.




I will pass on the 15 - 20 inch accumulation here in Central TX. I just planted my squash garden and haven't yet mastered the rice paddy.
Quoting 223. Gearsts:

lol


To be fair, a season that active is probably likely if the AMO is actually warm. I mean, it probably isn't, but don't tell him that.

Quoting 203. washingtonian115:


Rita is a wonderful reminder of how lucky the people along the coastline have been during these past few years.
Rita was a blast for me when I was a kid. I was 14 at the time, and my brother's birthday was on the 23rd, so... literally the night it was heading toward the coast. Everyone came over for the party and we just played Halo. My cousin even talked about spending the night because of the deteriorating conditions. I was like 100 miles from the center so I didn't have much to worry about in terms of it getting too destructive.
Quoting 241. jitterboy:

I just saw that Bill Gray passed.
http://www.9news.com/news/local/hurricane-forecas t-pioneer-bill-gray-dead-at-age-86/137721024


Go read Klotzbach's eulogy.
Quoting 235. pureet1948:




And if this were hurricane season?


It would still be a cutoff low...? :P

Sometimes an upper low can generate a surface low through upper divergence and temperature gradients, which can gradually lift the tropopause through warming if it sits over warm water long enough. That's how tropical cyclones form from upper lows; the vertical temperature profile gradually becomes warm through rising air associated with the surface low.
My Thoughts, PRAYERS AND Condolences go out to the Family of Dr. William Gray -as well as to those affected most by the Earthquake in Japan & by disasters -natural and man-made in the World.
Rest in Peace Dr. Gray! And May the Souls of All the Faithful departed through the Mercy of God- rest in the Peace of Christ!

Blessings to All!
Quoting 245. calkevin77:



I will pass on the 15 - 20 inch accumulation here in Central TX. I just planted my squash garden and haven't yet mastered the rice paddy.


Ok will take it then

Quoting 251. Tazmanian:



Ok will take it then
But not all at once....
Quoting 252. PedleyCA:


But not all at once....



He can't jinx it. Let him have it. His reaction to getting it will be interesting. :)
ULL for short. Upper Level Low

Quoting 230. pureet1948:



What would that be if it were over water?
255. TX2FL
Quoting 177. Sfloridacat5:

Typical influence of La Nina on Pacific and Atlantic seasonal hurricane activity. Map by NOAA Climate.gov, based on originals by Gerry Bell.
These impacts are primarily caused by changes in the vertical wind shear, which refers to the change in wind speed and direction between roughly 5,000-35,000 ft. above the ground. Strong vertical wind shear can rip a developing hurricane apart, or even prevent it from forming.

Link

I think the big question is how long will neutral last, if I'm not mistaken, the "bigs" in the past 25 years or so (Andrew, Katrina, Rita, Wilma) Were in the neutral months, which at this point, based on forecast, will be around at the height of the season again. I see revised forcast numbers going up 2-3 later on.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FANTALA (08-20152016)
10:00 AM RET April 17 2016
====================================
Southwest of Agalega
Southeast of Farquhar Atoll

At 6:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala (939 hPa) located at 10.6S 52.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
25 NM radius from the center, extending up to 30 NM in the southern semi-circle

Storm Force Winds
===========
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 50 NM in the southern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
==============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 100 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=================
65 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 200 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/W0.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
---------------------------
12 HRS: 10.0S 51.2E - 110 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 9.5S 50.0E - 115 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 9.8S 49.9E - 80 knots (CYCLONE Tropical)
72 HRS: 11.5S 52.3E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=================
Over the last six hours, Fantala intensity has been little change even if the last infrared imagery show a clear top clouds cooling. Fantala moves dangerously closer to Farquahr archipelago. Fantala is forecast to cross over the archipelago during the first part of the night as an intense tropical cyclone. Associated to gusts around 300 km/hr the storm surge should reach 2 meters locally, especially closer to the core.

The system continues its northwestwards track over the northern and northeastern side of a high geopotential cell located south of Madagascar, with a ridge axis over Madagascar. Today and tomorrow, this ridge axis should shift progressively eastward and leave room for a mid-latitude trough. Fantala should be centered within a col with contrary steering flows. So, Fantala is forecast to begin to slow down this night when it should transit closer the Farquahr island. Tuesday, Fantala should stop its northwestward track and begin a slow about-turn toward the southeast under the northeastern steering flow of a building mid-level near-equatorial ridge. From Wednesday, Fantala should keep on its southeastward trajectory under the twice influence of the near-equatorial ridge located to the northeast and ahead a wide mid-latitude trough.

The intensity forecast is difficult due to the small size of the system. The intensity fluctuates rapidly with small fluctuations of the environmental conditions. Without any early indications of the beginning of an eyewall replacement cycle and given the expected improvement of the upper level divergence within the next 24 hours, Fantala is likely to deepen slowly. From Monday, on the southeastward track, the self induced sea surface temperatures cooling could become the main factor of the weakening of the system as atmospheric factors are expected to be excellent. Wednesday, with the arrival of the aforementioned trough, the upper level conditions should progressively deteriorate with an increasing northwestward vertical wind shear. Fantala should begin a weakening phase more significantly.
The damage in northwestern South America from the 7.8 earthquake at 8 PM, EDT, Saturday... in lives, homes, and infrastructure... is going to be horrific, if early information continues to escalate. Currently, the death toll is at 77, but that will be low, as there are building collapses, power outages, and road and bridge failures from Guayaquil, 150 miles south of the epicenter, to Cali, Columbia, 300 miles northeast of it.

I can't imagine the damage to towns and villages much closer to the shallow site of the quake. :-(

And, as I believe in the antipodal nature of earthquakes and other geological events (i.e., if something "traumatic" happens to the Earth at one point on the globe, very often something strong will happen on the exact opposite side of the world), it is worrisome to note that the antipodal site to the Ecuador earthquake is almost exactly at the site of the Dec. 26th, 2004, Boxer Day earthquake (just west of Sumatra, Indonesia) and horrible tsunami that took 230,000 lives back then.

It's probably too soon for something that major to strike that area again, I know, but this rather intense proliferation of plus-5.5 earthquakes over the entire globe the past 7-10 days really is of some major concern, IMO... and that's not even taking into account the general increase in volcanism all over the Earth in the past 2-3 months. :-(

Jo

Quoting 257. flibinite:


It's probably too soon for something that major to strike that area again, I know

Jo
Technically there's nothing preventing it from happening again so soon. Average return periods are based on long-term statistics... that's it.
I rarely come here anymore, but school takes up a lot of time. I used to post a fair amount, but now I am finishing up my freshman year of college as a meteorology major. I just got accepted as a NWS Detroit/Pontiac student volunteer for the summer and I am very excited for that. I'll be doing research of some sort while I'm volunteering, and hopefully will have a full poster and written piece to go along with it. Otherwise, I've wrote a blog on the meteorological and climatological analysis of the April 9th, 2015 Fairdale, Illinois EF4 tornado and its implications for Chicago's tornado risk. I wanted it completed last week, but it ended up becoming a much bigger project than I thought it would be.
the ring of fire seems to be feeling the mojo
Good morning. Here is Fantala, looking at you ... Quite a beautiful beast.

Source.



Wiki about Farquahar Islands where Fantala is creating havoc:
The Farquhar Group belong to the Outer Islands of the Seychelles, lying in the southwest of the island nation, more than 700 km (430 mi) southwest of the capital, Victoria, on Mahe Island. ... There is only one settlement, which is located on Ile du Nord (North Island) of Farquhar Atoll. There is an abandoned village on Providence Island of Providence Atoll. ...
this blogs misses the character Sar bad. the characters world wide adventures he wrote about were fascinating.
Quoting 197. Sfloridacat5:

Everyone should hope the Caribbean and the GOM stays unfriendly for development.

Unfortunately, it cannot stay quiet there forever.
Hello,
I had a question about the Wunder interactive map. Is there a way to adjust the opacity on particular parts of the severe weather layer? For instance I would like to turn the areal flood watches down to zero while keeping the thunderstorm and tornado warnings up at 100. I find that the warnings are getting drown out by the watches.

Thanks a bunch
Regarding Comment 257 by flibinite, I have been wondering if there could be any effect on tectonic and volcanic activity by warming. Recall that as almost any solid substance (metal, concrete, stone) heats up, it expands by a small but measurable amount in sizes humans are used to dealing with (bridges, highways, etc). Now think about the crustal plates of the Earth's surface, which are enormously larger than the George Washington bridge or the concrete sections of a large highway. If a few degrees of warming can cause a bridge or a concrete slab to expand a measurable amount (or buckle), what happens over the thousands of miles of ocean crustal plate as the water in contact with it warms half a degree? Perhaps one of the effects of global warming will be an increase in earthquakes and volcanism as the deep oceans heat up.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
Hurricane Warning
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FANTALA (08-20152016)
16:00 PM RET April 17 2016
====================================
Southwest of Agalega
Southeast of Farquhar Atoll

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Fantala (932 hPa) located at 10.4S 51.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
================
Within a 30 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
===========
35 NM radius from the center, extending up to 45 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 50 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Gale Force Winds
==============
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 70 NM in the southeastern quadrant and up to 80 NM in the southwestern quadrant

Near Gale Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 180 NM in the southwestern quadrant and up to 210 NM in the southeastern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.5/6.5/D0.5/6 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
---------------------------
12 HRS: 10.1S 50.7E - 115 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 9.9S 49.9E - 105 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 10.5S 50.9E - 105 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 12.7S 54.1E - 100 knots (CYCLONE Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
=================
Over the last six hours, Fantala has intensified once again with a improvement of the upper level divergence equatorward. Eye has warmed up. 3 hr mean DT is at 6.6 and raw DT is at 7.0 since 1100z. Fantala impacts now severely Farquahr archipelago. Fantala is forecast to cross over the archipelago during this night without weaken. In addition to gusts around 300 km/h the storm surge should reach 2 meters locally, especially closer to the core.

The system continues its northwestwards track over the northern and northeastern side of a high geopotential cell located south of Madagascar, with a ridge axis over Madagascar. Tomorrow, this cell is forecast to shift progressively eastward and leave room for a mid-latitude trough. Fantala should be located within a col with opposite steering flows. So, Fantala is forecast to begin to slow down this night when it should transit closer the Farquahr Island. Monday night, Fantala should stop its northwestward track and begin a sharp turn toward the southeast under the northeastern steering flow of a building mid-level near-equatorial ridge. From Tuesday, Fantala should continue its southeastward trajectory under the twice influence of the near-equatorial ridge located to the northeast and ahead a wide mid-latitude trough.

The upper level conditions remain always conducive up to Tuesday. Fantala takes benefit from a weak vertical wind shear. The divergence is very good and several fast short wave upper level trough should transit south of the system and even temporally increase the polerward outflow. Only self induced sea surface temperatures cooling and eyewall replacement cycle could weaken the system.

Wednesday, with the arrival of a deeper upper level trough, the upper level conditions should progressively become less favorable with a gradual increasing northwestward vertical wind shear. Fantala should begin a weakening phase more significantly up to Thursday.
Question for experts on the blog. I'm sitting in North Houston, gusty winds, dense clouds and periodic sprinkles of rain falling on me. Yet when I go to the satellite water vapor imagery for the Gulf Mexico, it depicts the orange of dry air over me. I assume that's a high altitude measurement since its dripping down here on earth. Any idea what level is depicted on the satellite image?
The ring of fire is releasing stress.First Japan and now Ecuador in South America.Who's next? Its a guessing game that in the end everyone loses...
Online poll to name the new UK Polar research vessel - result just in.

And the winner is 'Boaty McBoatface'.

Ahem . Maybe it wasn't such a good idea to ask the general public.

Link
271. beell
Quoting 268. Houdude:

Question for experts on the blog. I'm sitting in North Houston, gusty winds, dense clouds and periodic sprinkles of rain falling on me. Yet when I go to the satellite water vapor imagery for the Gulf Mexico, it depicts the orange of dry air over me. I assume that's a high altitude measurement since its dripping down here on earth. Any idea what level is depicted on the satellite image?


How does water vapor imagery work?

A model's look at the atmospheric profile above Houston earlier this morning. Red trace is the temp, green trace is the dewpoint. The column is saturated up to a certain point-a definite lid to the moisture. This type of profile is not conducive to deep convection. Light to almost moderate precip under the "lid" for now.



btw, we're all experts here!
Quoting 268. Houdude:

Question for experts on the blog. I'm sitting in North Houston, gusty winds, dense clouds and periodic sprinkles of rain falling on me. Yet when I go to the satellite water vapor imagery for the Gulf Mexico, it depicts the orange of dry air over me. I assume that's a high altitude measurement since its dripping down here on earth. Any idea what level is depicted on the satellite image?
I no expert, but most of the water vapor images do not pick up surface features well. There are many sat pics that do tho...


Quoting 270. yonzabam:

Online poll to name the new UK Polar research vessel - result just in.

And the winner is 'Boaty McBoatface'.

Ahem . Maybe it wasn't such a good idea to ask the general public.

Link
No Kidding, was a very bad idea...
Horrifying photos of Ecuador earthquake







Story and additional photos can be found here:

Link
The Weather Channel ‏@weatherchannel 4m4 minutes ago
BREAKING: Death tolls rises to 233 after Saturday's 7.8 #earthquake in Ecuador
276. JRRP7

this year looks better for cyclones in the MDR than:
2015

and 2014
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Aug-Oct CFSV2 implications.High impact Hurricane season with atlantic warmth/la nina.
Quoting 277. washingtonian115:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Aug-Oct CFSV2 implications.High impact Hurricane season with atlantic warmth/la nina.


No one appears to be factoring in the extreme dryness throughout Central America and northern South America. It's a very important factor.
Quoting 277. washingtonian115:

Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 4h4 hours ago Pennsylvania, USA
Aug-Oct CFSV2 implications.High impact Hurricane season with atlantic warmth/la nina.
Joe Bastardi ‏@BigJoeBastardi 16 abr. Pensilvania, USA
CFSV2 summer not nearly as warm as... So dont want to hear from AGW ilk that it wasnt seen. CFSV2 not most reliable
19S FANTALA 160417 1200 10.3S 51.7E SHEM 140 (kt) 918 (mb)


Godzilla got destroy no mercy.
jb falling in line with my original forecast im looking for above average Ace too. hopefully it will be a good yr for us trackers.
a late May or early June monsoon trough over the western carib. would help their drought.
JB, insulting folks in every quip, tweet, and lying post.

He is one to loathe.

: P

Some people like chocolate or coconut cream. Some like lemon meringue.

Getting some needed rain in Oklahoma. Overnight, the flood watch turned to warnings in W OK and along Red River. Won't overtop last Spring though. (The pun's for my pal, Naga.)

Quoting 266. CaneFreeCR:

Regarding Comment 257 by flibinite, I have been wondering if there could be any effect on tectonic and volcanic activity by warming.


I have been wondering if the melting ice caps have reached the point where the plates are deforming more. Didn't I read recently that the earth's tilt has been affected? Would think then that the plates would be affected as well.

Whatever it is, the Ring of Fire sure seems to have the jitters recently!

Fantala's eye north of Madagascar. The Farquahr Islands the storm is devouring right now, are too small to be shown on this map. I really hope those couple of humans who live on these tiny islands were evacuated in time.

Forecast here for 89F, RH is 13%, Wind E@12, G22, currently 79.1F@ 10:34PDT

One of the landslides in southern Japan due to the earthquakes and heavy rains. (Click the picture to expand. Source Guardian). On the right side a bridge is gone entirely, the road now ends at the brink of the abyss.


Ecuador quake toll rises to 233 dead: president

REPORT from Agence France-Presse Published on 17 Apr 2016


Portoviejo, Ecuador | AFP | Sunday 4/17/2016 - 16:16 GMT

by Santiago PIEDRA SILVA

Rescuers in Ecuador raced to dig out people trapped under the rubble of homes and businesses on Sunday, following a powerful 7.8-magnitude earthquake that killed at least 233.

Vice President Jorge Glas called it the "worst seismic movement we have faced in decades."

President Rafael Correa said on Twitter that the death toll Sunday had risen to 233, up from an initial count of 77 dead and 600 injured. He added that Glas was on his way to the hard-hit city of Portoviejo on the Pacific coast.

The quake, felt across Ecuador, northern Peru and southern Colombia, struck at 6:58 local time Saturday evening (2358 GMT), lasting for about a minute and was centered approximately 170 kilometers northwest of the capital Quito.

No casualties were reported in Peru or Colombia.

Devastation -

In Portoviejo, the temblor reduced houses to rubble, brought down a local market in a nearby community and left streetlights and debris scattered helter-skelter.

"It was horrible, this is the first time I feel an earthquake like this," resident Macontos Bibi, 57, told AFP, still in shock a day later. "I thought my house was going to collapse."

According to Glas, 14,000 security forces, 241 medical staff and two mobile hospitals were being rushed to the most devastated areas, with reinforcements arriving from Colombia and Mexico.

"We know that there are citizens trapped under rubble that need to be rescued," he said in a special TV and radio broadcast.

Devastation -

In Portoviejo, the temblor reduced houses to rubble, brought down a local market in a nearby community and left streetlights and debris scattered helter-skelter.

"It was horrible, this is the first time I feel an earthquake like this," resident Macontos Bibi, 57, told AFP, still in shock a day later. "I thought my house was going to collapse."

According to Glas, 14,000 security forces, 241 medical staff and two mobile hospitals were being rushed to the most devastated areas, with reinforcements arriving from Colombia and Mexico.

"We know that there are citizens trapped under rubble that need to be rescued," he said in a special TV and radio broadcast.

In the town of Abdon Calderon near Portoviejo, 73-year-old resident Nelly, who would not give her last name, told AFP in tears that she had rushed into the street after the quake and saw that the covered market had collapsed.

"There was a person trapped who screamed for help, but then the screaming stopped. Oh, it was terrible," she said.

Maria Torres, 60, who lives in Quito, said the quake lasted so long it made her dizzy.

"I couldn't walk ... I wanted to run out into the street, but I couldn't."

In the Pacific port city of Guayaquil, home to more than two million people, a bridge collapsed, crushing a car beneath it, and residents were picking through the wreckage of houses reduced to heaps of rubble, an AFP photographer reported.

At the city's airport, passengers awaiting flights ran out of the terminals when they felt the ground shake.

"Lights fell down from the ceiling. People were running around in shock," said Luis Quimis, 30, who was waiting to catch a flight to Quito.

Ecuador's Geophysical Office reported "considerable" structural damage "in the area near the epicenter as well as points as far away as Guayaquil."

Earthquake zone -

Officials declared a state of emergency in the six worst-hit provinces.

The US Geological Survey (USGS) said the 7.8-magnitude quake struck off the northwest shore of Ecuador, just 27 kilometers from the town of Muisne. The vice president gave a slightly lower measurement of magnitude 7.6.

Ecuador lies near a shifting boundary between tectonic plates and has suffered seven earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher in the region of Saturday's quake since 1900, the USGS said. One in March 1987 killed about 1,000 people, it said.

At least 55 smaller aftershocks rattled the country after the main quake, Glas said.

The Hawaii-based Pacific Tsunami Warning Center initially issued a warning for the nearby Pacific coastline but later said the threat had passed.

David Rothery, a professor of geosciences at The Open University, said the quake's 7.8 magnitude meant that "shaking at its underground source was about 6 times stronger than in the magnitude 7.0 earthquake in southern Japan just over a day before."

"The total energy involved was probably about 20 times greater," he said, adding that there was no causal relationship between the two quakes.

The quake that hit Japan early Saturday left at least 41 dead.

'Severe damage' -
Miriam Santana, a 40-year-old resident of the western city of Manta, described scenes of devastation.

"It was as if the world was about to end," she told AFP by phone. "Homes were coming down -- around my house three homes collapsed, and street lights fell."

"There are people trapped under the rubble," she said, adding that local residents were in a state of "total desperation."
Authorities closed the city's airport, saying the control tower suffered "severe damage."

In northern Quito, people ran out of their homes in terror as power lines swayed back and forth, knocking out power to some areas.

Correa, who was on a visit to the Vatican when the quake struck, called for "calm and unity" in a phone interview with Radio Publica.

In Rome, Pope Francis urged prayers for Ecuador quake victims.

US Secretary of State John Kerry expressed his "heartfelt condolences" to the quake victims and said Washington was ready to assist and support Ecuador.

Federica Mogherini, chief diplomat for the European Union, announced that it would help the South American country.

bur-sp/ka/acb/jm

1994-2016 Agence France-Presse
Quoting 289. Patrap:

Here we all carry spring-loaded center punches to break the windows out in the event we ever go off the Causeway into Lake Pontchartrain.

I urge everyone who travels over water daily to have one.




All our cars have them. I give them as presents to people and they look at me like I gave them a crappy gift. They don't seem to understand it could very well save their life.

Florida leads the nation in water related car fatalities. It's mostly due to all the canals we have everywhere. People are always driving into them.

FLORIDA HAS MORE WATER-RELATED TRAFFIC FATALITIES
Unfortunately, Florida leads the nation when it comes to drownings caused by car collisions. Between 2008 and 2012, 49 people in the state have died due to car crash drownings. In comparison, Texas had 18 deaths in the same time period. That state was second in the nation when it comes to car crash drownings.


Data from the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration suggests that the numbers are even greater. According to the agency, when death certificates as well as crash records are considered, the number of car crash drownings in Florida is actually closer to 57 fatalities annually, with about 384 such deaths occurring across the country each year.

South Florida, especially, has a high rate of these types of fatal car crashes. The top three counties in the state when it comes to car accident drownings are Palm Beach County, Broward County, and Miami-Dade County.

POSSIBLE EXPLANATIONS FOR THE NUMBERS
One reason why Florida may have more drowning-related car accident fatalities than any other state is because Florida has more roads along water areas when compared with other states. In addition to rivers and beaches, Florida also has roadside canals, which are required by environmental rules at the state and local levels close to thoroughfares.

Another issue that may cause some of these fatalities may be guardrails. Guardrails are supposed to help stop cars from going over embankments and into water, but some safety experts question whether Florida has enough guardrails to protect drivers. There is also some question whether guardrails meet federal safety standards. This year, for example, there has been some question whether a new type of guardrail used in Florida and other states since 2005 doesn’t contribute to injury.

A third issue has to do with the ability to escape a submerged car. In some cases, drivers and passengers who are flung into the water in a car lose consciousness due to a head injury or other injury and cannot escape the sinking car. In other cases, drivers and passengers get tangled in their seatbelts, cannot break the side windows of the car to escape, or cannot open the car doors due to the pressure of the water. In many cases, cars roll over when they enter the water, so that passengers may be struggling to get out of an upside-down car. In many cases, experts say that passengers have only seconds to escape a car that is sinking. Experts agree that more could be done to teach drivers how to get out of a car that has left the road and is sinking in water.

If you have been injured in a car accident caused by someone’s negligence, contact Flaxman Law Group for a free case review. Our attorneys would be pleased to review your situation with you.

Posted in: Automobile Accidents and Car Accident Facts and Statistics
Link
293. ackee
Question to the blog when there is La Nina hurricane kind of season do we see a stronger B/A Hugh pressure ?? or a weaker one

Do we see more fish storm or storm that threaten land storm during La Nina


A center punch and a NOAA Alert Radio alone can save hundreds of lives.

Im looking to upgrade my current Gas Electrical Generator....for Cane season. Going without A/C is not a option here in August and September.




BPS 1250 Watt 2 Battery Power System - Model# BPS1250
by Backup Power Source
My quick overview on La Nina coming late season is this...we cannot use the old baselines from the past to give us a reference to todays, since the atmosphere today is much warmer and much wetter than those baseline periods. We have a 7-10% increase in Water Vapor over them with this 1F rise baked in now.

My concern is that it only takes 1 or 2 waves to sneak across the MDR, into prime SST's and conditions aloft, with a coastline downstream in time.


Somewhere and someone will have a Major coming ashore.




Central and South Central Texas (especially the Texas Hill Country Region) should be preparing for the possibility of flash flooding. Those creeks and rivers can go from basically empty to raging rivers in a matter of minutes.

Saved picture I have of a washed out roadway in the Texas Hill Country. Turn around and don't drown.
Yesterday's Storm Reports

Performing my stretches a little early before the hurricane season starts. I thought I'd do a little post concerning the neat little surface low currently NE of Bermuda this afternoon. I don't think its going to develop but I'm watching it over the next 48 hours before it gets absorbed (link to blog post)
Good point! where can I get one of these? Living here on the Space Coast and traveling to work and coming home across the Indian River, or along the Banana River on a road called South Tropical Trail which is level with the roadway sometimes and can flood but not very deep. Florida does have a lot of water ways to cross.
Quoting 289. Patrap:

Here we all carry spring-loaded center punches to break the windows out in the event we ever go off the Causeway into Lake Pontchartrain.

I urge everyone who travels over water daily to have one.


I got my center punch from Amazon.com, but they most likely have them at most automotive stores. Link

Spring loaded will really help crack the window. Most people don't use the regular center punches correctly and have difficulty getting the window to shatter.
Pretty nasty squall line setting up. It could hold together march across the state as depicted by the HRRR model.
302. JRRP7
One area near Austin has received 5.9 inches in 3 hours from the training storms there.

Dr. Greg Forbes on TWC just now.



Quoting 302. JRRP7:


Another area of storms setting up across central Texas from San Antonio up I35 towards Dallas. Some of the cells are most likely feeling the effect of the Balcones Escarpment that runs from San Antonio up to Austin.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Fantala's inner core structure is excellent and without much signs of weakening.



Meanwhile, SwirlWatch 2016 is eyeballing a late-season extratropical storm near Bermuda that probably won't do anything significant in particular at the moment but is an interesting swirl to look at:

Balcones Escarpment separates the Coastal Plains from the Edwards Plateau. This rise in elevation tends to increase precipitation near and along it with a southerly flow setup.