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Central American disturbance less organized

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 4:29 PM GMT on November 25, 2006

A tropical disturbance (95L) near 11N, 79W, just north of Panama, has remained nearly stationary and become less organized over the past 24 hours. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has decreased, and the winds from the latest QuikSCAT satellite pass at 6:11pm EST last night revealed top winds of only 20-30 mph. An ill-defined and elongated surface circulation was apparent in the QuikSCAT data, and some evidence of rotation can be seen on the latest visible satellite loop of the region.


Figure 1. preliminary model tracks for the Panama disturbance, 95L.

Water temperatures are a warm 28C, and wind shear remains around 10 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development over the next two days. It is possible a tropical depression could form on Monday, as wind shear is expected to remain low over the extreme southern Caribbean. None of the models are forecasting that 95L will develop into a depression--with the exception of the 00Z run of the GFDL model, which has a very unrealistic-looking forecast of a Cat 2 hurricane on Monday hitting Nicaragua. The Hurricane Hunters are on call to investigate the system on Monday afternoon, but given the current poor organization of the system, I doubt a flight will be needed. Steering currents are weak, but a slow westward motion is indicated by most of the models. The system appears to be a threat primarily to Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Honduras, and Panama. Any northward movement of the storm would bring it into a area of high wind shear that would quickly tear it apart.

I'll be back Sunday morning with an update.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr.M.
Good that nothing affects the US:)
Not much to look at right now.





It did get a T# on the last pass
25/1145 UTC 11.2N 78.4W T1.0/1.0 95L
25/0545 UTC 11.2N 78.7W TOO WEAK 95L

Here's a link to the gfdl...scroll right click fwd

& a compare of 95L & the blob in the Central Atlantic..

credit ~ GOES 12 (it auto updates)
I really think the wave in the central atlantic should be 95L not the real 95L!
95L still has a spin to it but, seems to be diminishing in chance to develop. More info on the Noon

Hurricane Warning Analysis
C U later
There is a 1008mb low associated with 95L.
This is the only mention from the 1:05 discussion.

A 1007 MB SURFACE LOW IS OFF THE COAST OF
PANAMA NEAR 12N78W.
That blob out there Skye is looking more like a smear LOL.
heh it dropped a millibar. Looks like the it will be moving more north than west from the latest computer model run. Probably kill it self like that.
Apparently a possible recon mission has been scheduled for Monday. The NHC must be going through withdrawls of using the hunters this season.
Yeah, it is drifting to the North again.





West Pacific
24W.NONAME


new TD in the West Pacific
Wow! could develop on monday huh!
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z NOV 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-178

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 12.5N 82.5W AT 27/1800Z.
for get it evere one 95L wont do a thing if it gets in to the gulf it will get hit bye wind shaer
I am still not ruling out htis invest completely. Just having a hard time gettig its act together. Would be kinda interesting if it did infact did develop and move to the north.
funny how the convection is everywhere except the circulation center.
pic
DFoo-foo storm...LOL
LOL Pat.
12Zgfdl came down to a cat 1 at landfall.
Like a Bad cartoon before a Good movie..95L...
Now this Atlantic wave..Impressive for Novembers end..
Yeah that is impressive.
But this Huge cold pool pushing South come Thurs-Fri..is very interesting for sure!..Link
will it reach south florida? I want snow lol...
Looks like winter coming early...
Never say never with cold air and moisture in the Southeast..it happens.
The other 12Z runs don't pic up on development of it or the smear of a blob that remains in the C Atlantic. Suddenly it has the everything down there going east to west & breaking up into smaller bits. The fronts don't drop as far & inhance as modeled before.
Thats one big Artic push south though..making my Travel pans for friday..a Lil nervous..LOL
Good afternoon,

On this Ramsdis visible loop you can almost make out several different vortices spinning around in the same area with 95L.
I'm not ready trust the sudden switch in the fickle models. Ukmet still had front for the deep caribbean.
"Never say never with cold air and moisture in the Southeast..it happens."

heh you make it osund like it has snowed here often. It has only snowed once in South Florida, but i wasn't alive.
Is in New Orleans.Had snow Xmas day 04.Was nice..first time on Xmas in 50years.
I was alive then. It snowed here and also as far out as Freeport in the Bahamas...1976.
Snow Xmas 044
Want to see thundersnow once.That would be cool.
lucky. I want it to snow at least once here. Not that i have never seen or felt snow, but just to experience it at home...

Hurricane 23 i think i see two spins one near the convection and one to the west of the other.
On the New TD in the W Pac...That thing has been an invest about only a day...It's reminded me of some rapid intensifying ones they've had in that area earlier this year.
Miracles do happen....FSU just got another touchdown!
Tied up at 14!
Score rand?
Go Seminoles?
Yeah buddy! Go Noles!
Drakoen i also live in south florida (miami) and i will tell you it is extremely unlikely that the event that occured in 1977 will occur.On jan 19 snow did fall in homestead florida only about 25 miles north of the bridge from the Florida mainland to the Keys.The lowest temp recorded in miami has been 30 degress which has occured several times.
Howdy all, hope everyone had a nice Thanksgivig!!!
i know it is unlikely just being optimistic, i'm not stupid considering it has only happened once. I live in Lake Worth in Plam Beach county.
Thanks fshhead..Hope yours was well too
Hi Fish...great here...how bout you?
looks like 95L is losing some of its deep convection that it had earlier today. Kinda surprised the hurricane hunters are scheduling to fly into that thing.. must be bored.
Doubt very much that theyll fly.. its just a manifest schedule.
Well not so good Randrewl, my mom passed away last Friday so Thanksgiving was rather somber. Things are getting better though. Time will heal
A good news story from Keesler AFB where the HH fly out of and are Based....Link
I think 95L is being sheared. On the satelite imagery there seems to be some more convection west of the spin.
Sorry to hear about your Mother.Lost both mine in 03.No pain like losing a Parent.Ill be thinking of ya ...
Thanx Pat, yea its been tough but, since it was expected ahhhh, I guess it made it a little easier. hardest part is the vulture activity going after her belongings. Me personally I am staying out of it.
Geez Fish...real sorry to hear that.
Posted By: Drakoen at 8:13 PM GMT on November 25, 2006.

looks like 95L is losing some of its deep convection that it had earlier today. Kinda surprised the hurricane hunters are scheduling to fly into that thing.. must be bored.


They just have to task recon with the mission just in case they need to fly it. They can always cancel the flight.
Thanx Rand, yea I was real sorry too!! Had to be the messenger for the family to tell of her passing. that was TOUGH
LowerCal, you've got mail... if you are here.
I know Fish...lost my Father about 18 months ago. There's a lot more involved than just the loss of a loved one.
Yup & soooo sorry for your loss Randrewl & Patrap also!!
I don't know you Fish, but I am sorry about your mother. I would also like to say I love what your doing on your blog!
Thanx, wishcasterboy on both comments!!!
Yea I gotta say I am pretty proud that "maybe" I turned a few heads on the global warming issue.
Sorry to Pat and Rand as well.
I hear that in Feb. 2007 a new report is going to come out that pretty much takes away any doubt on it.
It's going to take me some time to get through all the comments, but it's worth the time and effort!
The main problem is it's impossible to get everybody to live cleaner lives.
Keep working on that Fish...My head is still where it has been.
I will say this though, ever since I started that blog, I have seen alot more awareness & many many ideas to tackle it. ALOT of progress in solar technology & such in that time frame!!
I really do think we are starting to turn that corner!!!!
Randrewl I think you "kinda" know me by now. I will not stop trying to promote change!!!LOL
Change is great Fish. You know me too.
Well we as humans have the unique ability to adjust too almost any type of climate.
That 2nd generation Tesla car really really has me excited. THAT is going to be the thing that really drives change. When people see that it is possible & seeing it with there own eyes. I think this car going to really take off. I forget his name but, the guy who started the Tesla company going to be really wealthy!!!
The best thing we can do right now is rally support, which is why I think what your doing is so cool.
That's right Fish....remember...there's a lot more Tesla inventions that could have changed this world over a hundred years ago. But all have been suppressed.


Nice wheels!
LOL yea I still have your link Randrewl to that Bearden guy Hmmmmm he should really try getting into the spotlight now. His ideas maybe the next great thing!!(or Tesla's I should say)
Bearden Guy?
As long as the powers that be are allowed to continue suppressing advanced technology.....all the individual efforts to change things will fail.
I was just looking at the site. When is his documentary supposed to come out????
Come work for the people. We don't pay much, but you can sleep at night!
I'll check later Fish. I received an email about that I think. I'll send it to you.
Wishcasterboy this Bearden guy is trying to ressurect Tesla's ideas. Sounds like really promising technology!!!!!!
Could you send me some information on this Fish?
woooohoooo thanx Rand, I really want to see that documentary. I also saw on the site their are things to e-mail the govt. Hmmmmmm wondering if I should smack the bees nest?? LOL
Yeah, go ahead. If your heart is in the right place just email the heck out of them!
LOL I think ALOT of people on this site know where my heart lies on this issue!!!
Wishcaster did you get the mail????
Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/1745 UTC 11.5N 78.6W T1.0/1.0 95L
25/1145 UTC 11.2N 78.4W T1.0/1.0 95L
25/0545 UTC 11.2N 78.7W TOO WEAK 95L
24/2345 UTC 10.9N 78.3W TOO WEAK 95L

Thank you fish, that's very interesting info.
no prob' & yea very interesting info indeed!!!
Wow the potential there is enormous
Well....I'm a realist Fish. The technology has always been available. Unless the moneyed elite can make huge profits on it...it won't happen.
That's the reality of it all.
ideas like these really need to be brought into the spotlight & seriously researched. Turns out the brilliant Nikola Tesla not so crazy after all. Just took a 100 years to figure it out LOL
This should keep everybody busy for awhile.

He was made to appear crazy Fish. he was not a profiteer and that scared the industrialists of the time. He threatened them and they smeared him.
What people don't seem to understand is they have more power over our governmnt than they might think.
Floods, storms, and droughts. Melting polar ice, shrinking glaciers, oceans turning acidic. Scientists from the fields of glaciology, biology, meteorology, oceanography, and ecology reported seeing a dramatic rise over the last 50 years of all the indicators of climate change: increase in average world temperatures, extreme weather events, in the levels of CO2 and other greenhouse gases, and in the level of the oceans.
Taken from an article out of my blog. I know that our season was quiet BUT, the Pacific side is pretty active this year to say the least.I know we are in El-Nino that is conducive for them BUT, I still think this is due to the warming causing higher SST'S.
Man I take more flak about that comment.

The key is educating people about the problem, and them taking action.
LOL...no they do not.
I kinda agree with both of you. A little more towards Rand's side.
Climate Change in a nutshell.
Oh well....there's nothing wrong with capitalism. But ruthless raping of our environment disturbs me also Fish.
Would you nutshell your ideas Rand?
agree totally Rand!!!!!!!!!
Aww, the poor Philippians have had enough.
Like we have discussed before Rand, I hope that the new power up in the hill REALLY holds true to their statements on getting off of oil.
Have any of you ever thought this????
I think that the oil is in the planet for a reason(lubricant or something) & that removing it all will have consequences???
I have no problem with capitalism, but the people must take action on this issue, it's the only way. The government can not be held responsible for taking action if the people aren't pushing them too do so.
good point wishcaster!!!!
Here's my nutshell:
In a US general election you are lucky if 60% of registered voters honestly exercise that privilege.
That is what Government hears and what current and would-be politicos hear. There is no real mandate anymore.
When we can muster over 80% voter turnout....only then will you start seeing real change.
So, young people that want to see change should be involved in educating themselves first and then spreading that to the non-voters.
Oil is here because of tropical rainforest's from the land before time. lubricant? Not that I know of. Oil is really toxic, really it has know place on this Earth, accept deep underground!
I still say the oil serves "some" kinda purpose that we dont know of. I think there has to be some repercussion for removing it all.
Yes, yes! I totally agree with you, that is what needs to be done!
I would lean your way on that Fish....I am just not educated enough to really know.
It's possible.
LOL I try to educate the young people I know & all they are worried about is are they going to be able to get the new Playstation 3!!!!!!!
No, I think you need to put yourself out there Rand. You have it man!
LMAO...yes, that is a hard one to overcome!
WOW these gaming consoles are like freakin' heroin to these kids these days LOL
You have to inspire them, that's what worked for me when I didn't care. It's a hard job, but there's people out there who can do it.
Governments like to see the young people of their country pre-occupied with such things Fish. It's easier to steal their future that way.
I can love video games and still be progrssive.
Man & they are doing a FANTASTIC job at it Rand. I try to inspire the young people I know cause they "kinda" look up to me LOL Still not sure why though.........
Entertainment can be a good career you know.
Yea dont get me wrong I am a huge gaming person BUT, I do come out of the virtual world to look at reality also LOL. I LOVE to play Tribes 2. Best game ever!!!!!!
Keep leading them Fish. That's what it takes. Keep challenging and leading until they find it for themselves.
I think our type of government follows a cycle of reform and corruption. We could be about to enter another reform stage.
I am trying Rand, I even got 1 to read my blog LOL!!!!!!!!!!!!
BTW.... & that was after like 2 months of trying to convince him!!!!
I've always been very optimistic about the future.
Yeay....one is all it takes sometimes man. It is hard for young people today with the mainstream news media so ridiculously corrupted the way it is.
You can't buy the truth for any amount of money.
That's why i'm calling for reform.
When the time comes, I'll be there to support them.
Fish, i'm 16, so does that make me the future?
Allright guys I gotta take off. Nice talking with ya Rand!!! You also Wishcaster!!
yea wishcaster it does vor sure. All of this stuff happening NOW will affect YOUR future.
It should be illegal to make people pay for knowledge just like it is to make them pay for loving!
OK fish....I'll drop off some bombs I have on your blog later....see ya.
Astalavista Fish!
LOL fair enough..... can't wait to see these "bombs" LOL CYA!!!!!
It's a simple philosophy yes?
What philosophy?
Oh, I was referring to my joke.
Here's Tesla's basic philosophy for you to ponder.
The Universe and the Earth operate at a resonant frequency.....as do all living creatures.
Learn to manipulate that frequency and the power of the universe is at your disposal.
Is it not true though that any information of great use should be held back from the public for a money.
That sounds deliciously progressive.
It is true....and fact. It may not be right....but I am a realist. Not an idealist.
95L still appears to be drifting due North. I'll be back later.
Well perhaps if the money is going to a worthy cause, and the fee is not large. I'm a realistas well, but it remains important to do what we can too improve. Were just not doing that job right now.
Bye.
I think I'll be going as well.
Nice ITCZ flare!





Possible Tropical Development with 95L within 36 hours?Very slim chance in my opinion at any significant development.

158. ryang
Hi 23.I would like you to post at my blog.PLEASE.
Adrian, how ya livin?
Just here waiting for the miami heat game to start.
That's cool.
I played some highschool b-ball down here in miami and played 1 year for college.Any of u guys into cars?
wow!
Here is MY RIDE at cardomain....


Yes, why?
Well looks like the Philliphines might be dealing with some tropical trouble in the next couple of days.

INFRARED IMAGE OF TD 24W

Here is a picture of my 2000 honda civic parked in my front yard...


..SPECIAL FEATURE...
A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. A 1008 MB SURFACE LOW IS ANALYZED NEAR 11N78W OR
ABOUT 130 MILES NORTH OF PANAMA. THIS SYSTEM IS GENERATING
WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THIS
ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED AND FURTHER DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE LOW DRIFTS
SLOWLY WESTWARD. WIDELY SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM
10-14N BETWEEN 76W-82W.
24W is forcasted to reach CAT2 status as it makes its way in the gerneral direction of the Philliphines.
Cool....95L finally made a special feature listing. But it doesn't look like much.
Now this is going too far:

95L
its going WEST LOL
LOL...the NAM usually does.
LOL Taz
Whered you get that?
Right on Taz....West!!
Wait a minute, let me post the latest GFDL run
We all know the GFDL....save yourself.
Here's a link stormchaser
GFDL is dropping 95L.





evening all. I see lots of people are up and about. whats up tonight???
95L is up
Evening Pottery. I checked out your website...very nice. How are you?
Rand, I'm not suprised they dropped 95L. That flare up in the ITCZ looks nice though, I hope it stays where it is.
philliesrock like hello dont you think you we no that it been up for days now
Taz I'm telling pottery that
Yeah, Pottery...no more waves....now they are just flares! LOL
I'm excellent tonight Rand, had swarms of interesting people through here today, High Commissioners, artists,CEO's, students, dropouts, everybody sweating, got through loads of carib beer, and everyone left with a box of pots, and my account is gladdened!!!!
Oh Wow...that's great friend!
I'm considering blowing out a couple shower stalls at my hacienda. Who is your importer/ distributor in South Fl?
hi taz......how are you there man.
oh sorry you have said the name that oh you where talking to so that way we would no oh is talking to oh if you get what i mean
pottery doing ok
havent got one there Rand, you got to come here !!!!
LOL Pottery. If I want some decorative tiles....I don't have to go that far man.
Maybe you need a Florida distributor?
Here's a satellite picture of 95L:

95L

It may be hard to see but it looks like it has a swirl of clouds
Yeah, Phillies....it has a swirl of clouds...LOL
Actualy Rand, all I need is a dimension, I've shipped to a TV star in LA, a boutique in Tuscon, some homes in London..... mounted on nylon mesh for your own istallation. No problem.
I understand Pottery....just foolin with ya! It would be nice to have original stuff in the house....you know?
Not a very good chance of 95L developing:

atlantic
Also some shear around it now:

shear
Phillies....honestly...the area of 95L is the greatest potential area right now.





Oh man....forget those shear charts.
Yeah Rand I know. But If you came here in say Feb, the wahoo bite is nice and the carnival is wild and the accomodation is here and you get to choose your own tile. Decorate them yourself even ...........
Oh man....be quiet Pottery.....I love fishing the wahoo!
OK< OK I'll say no more. But if you listen carefully you can hear my reel sing from THERE ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZIIIIIINNNNGGGGG
heheheheheheh.oops shuks it got off.....
Quick Wahoo story.
I managed to drag one up....around 20lbs on the way into Nassau from the Berry islands. Tossed it out to the dockmaster for overnight mooring fees and $10.00 cash for security....he was happy and so was I. Went gambling all night after....LOL!
25/2345 UTC 12.1N 77.8W TOO WEAK 95L -- Atlantic Ocean


95L is back to TOO WEAK
.........but wait...yaaaaaaaarrr there goes the other outrigger.....aaaaaarrrrrrrgggghhhhh........
that's sounding more like sailfishing Pottery.
I had myself some fun!
Nice website Pottery, I didn't know your handle actually stood for somthing!
......OK this one is on good....a little less throttle cap, yes thats good.....clear those other lines there , its going left..LEFT LEFT ok, less throttle,, nice ......anybody see it yet????? my arm is fallin off man.... etc etc etctc... a 20 lb is nice Rand, a 90 lb one is thrills for 30 mins and no time for breathing. I love it......
Hi wishcaster, thanks for the compliment. What, you thought I came up with a handle like that just because I had gone to pot ?


They're all mine! Every single one of them mine, ALL MINE!!
Why would I not?
Hey wishcaster, fishing with sticks of dinamite is illegal, heheheh. nice catch.
Hey i've got 15 mouths to feed. Man godda bring home dah meeeat!
wishcaster "why etc. " a fair question indeed. so many interpretations in a simple statement. " I've gone to pot " Depends on the interpreter I suppose...
anyway my friends, I have a long day again on the morrow, so I bid you farewell. Have a great one...
Bye Pottery!
Warm SST'S are not everything in a developing tropical cylone...95L is nothing but a naked swirl right now and development chances are close to none.
Hey 23,

I'm interested in whether it will refire again tomorrow. It's been looking ragged the last few hours.

Anyway, it's amazing there is even an invest to watch this late in Nov., expecially this year . . .

For some reason it has been raining over my house, but not to the north or east. Very different from the usual pattern, which suggests to me that the front south of here may be generating the weather.
Very impressive banding features with 24W...


Infrared shot of 24W...



INFRARED LOOP
The philippines have had a bullseye on them this year as they have been threw a very active season.24W is a supertyphoon in the making.
yea thats what i think as well. 95L looking extremely ragged now, but i wouldn't be surprised to see the convection flare up tommorrow morning.
There have been many years where the Philippines got hammered by serveral severe typhoons. So I guess this is somewhat normal.
Another view of 24W's impressive banding...


232. ryang
Wishcaster read my last comment on my blog.
Wishcasterboy that is correct...But this one has everything going for it and most likely will become a very powerful typhoon and will again threaten that area.
nice but i seems that most of the strong convection is to mainly to the east of the center of circulation. It will probably get its act together and be a typhoon tommorrow.
Prepare for another Cimaron!
This one looks like it could get big in size.
lol a Tip in the making ^.^!
The Philippines are used to stuff like this... they get about 20 landfalling storms a year, although not a lot of strong storms like this year; damage from Cimaron, which may have had 180 mph winds at landfall was surprisingly light when compared to a similar storm (aka Andrew) hitting the U.S:

The typhoon killed at least 19 people, many of whom drowned, and left 15 missing in the northern Philippines. It also caused at least US$9 million in damage.[46] 90% of the houses were damaged in a coastal town near where Cimaron made landfall.[47] In the aftermath of the storm's passage across the Philippines, the Swedish International Development Cooperation Agency contributed 2.5 million Swedish krona (US$350,000) to aid efforts.


Only $9 million? Is that right?
Right now JTWC has 24W at 135kts with gusts to 165kts in 120hrs...
not surprised by the number hurricane23 it really looks impressive on both the satelite and infrared imagery.
Here is the possible forcast track...


There is definately a swirl with 95L in this LOOP but absolutely no convection as of now... making it fully exposed. I doubt that this will become anything; at most a TD. The GFDL makes it a TS while making landfall in southern Nicaragua in the 12z run for today down from being a CAT 2 in the 00z run.

It then crosses central america and reintensifies in the pacific while becoming a CAT 2 at the end of the run... I think the GFDL is always overpowering storms down there late in the season, at least with sergio and now 95L.
yes there is a swirl, most likely the convection will flare up tommorrow morning like what happened this morning.

000
ABNT20 KNHC 260310
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST SAT NOV 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF PANAMA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
A FEW SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART





--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Regardless of its current appearance i say we watch it, considering that this will probably be the last invest of the 2006 atlantic hurricane season. I will be watching to see if the convection flares and and moves over the swirl.
Folks in the Philippines better start thinking of preparations soon because 24W is forcasted to slam the area at 155mph.Rapid intensification seems like a good bet with this tropical system.
Filipinos well versed in Preparations.The forecasted impact is mostly farmland rice crop rural areas,north of the Population centers.Not far from where Chabi made landfall.
never follow that thin line, just htink of it as the center of the cone of error in which the system could go.
By the way, I have started a blog after being on this site for 2-3 weeks. It is about Canadian weather so if you guys want to check it out, go ahead. I will usually update it daily. Won't tell you anything else!
Who stretched the blog?
And who cares about Canadian weather?
Yeah....the boys have orders for Monday.

NOUS42 KNHC 251600
WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1100 AM EST SAT 25 NOV 2006
SUBJECT: TROPICAL STORM PLAN OF THE DAY (TSPOD)
VALID 26/1100Z TO 27/1100Z NOV 2006
TSPOD NUMBER.....06-178

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. SUCCEEDING DAY OUTLOOK: POSSIBLE LOW LEVEL INVEST
NEAR 12.5N 82.5W AT 27/1800Z.
i says for get 95L it is gone any way not march there we sould keep a eye on TS 24W wish could be coeme a cat 5 in a few days 95L is vary march gone
Taz...I live in the Atlantic Basin....have some sympathy please!
I like wide blogs!
Screw stretched blogs....and Non-Tropical weather!
Where's my friends? Pat?
Randrewl LOL thats a good one so you live in the Atlantic Basin where under the sea LOL
Rand you are quite the wild thing tonight!
Yeah Taz...It's still really warm here...LOL!
I am and can be wild. So what.
this blog is find to me
From Stacey Stewart!

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1030 PM EST SAT NOV 25 2006

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA NORTH OF PANAMA IS PRODUCING WIDESPREAD CLOUDINESS AND
A FEW SHOWERS. THIS SYSTEM REMAINS POORLY ORGANIZED AND FURTHER
DEVELOPMENT...IF ANY...SHOULD BE SLOW TO OCCUR AS THE TROUGH MOVES
SLOWLY WESTWARD.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL STORM FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED THROUGH MONDAY.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Taz,

Don't forget the islands, which are actually IN the basin . . .

I'm an equal opportunity tropical system watcher, which means I'll be watching western Caribbean and WPac.

But not right now. I'm off to bed . . .
I love this blog.
95L is just too damn weak!

Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/2345 UTC 12.1N 77.8W TOO WEAK 95L
25/1745 UTC 11.5N 78.6W T1.0/1.0 95L
25/1145 UTC 11.2N 78.4W T1.0/1.0 95L
25/0545 UTC 11.2N 78.7W TOO WEAK 95L
24/2345 UTC 10.9N 78.3W TOO WEAK 95L

I'll keep posting this till it shows up!


Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/2345 UTC 12.1N 77.8W TOO WEAK 95L
25/1745 UTC 11.5N 78.6W T1.0/1.0 95L
25/1145 UTC 11.2N 78.4W T1.0/1.0 95L
25/0545 UTC 11.2N 78.7W TOO WEAK 95L
24/2345 UTC 10.9N 78.3W TOO WEAK 95L

Yeah....there you go!
what's your point?
like i said 95L is gone for the most part
I don't care what anyone said. 95L is still a player until it is not. Right now it looks weak. Things change in the tropics.
Anyone with any experience knows that.
...SNOW LEVELS LOWERING CONSIDERABLY OVER THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON LOWLANDS SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...

THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON WILL INVADE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...IN THE WAKE OF A STRONG STORM SYSTEM THAT MOVES THROUGH ON SUNDAY.

THE SNOW LEVEL MAY BRIEFLY DROP RATHER TO LOW ELEVATIONS IN MAINLY THE SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON INTERIOR AHEAD OF THE STRONG SYSTEM SUNDAY. BUT THEN SNOW LEVELS COULD EASILY FALL TO BELOW 1000 FEET LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY...AND POSSIBLY BELOW 500 FEET.

THE SURFACE LOW FROM THE SYSTEM ON SUNDAY IS NOW FORECAST TO MOVE INTO EASTERN WASHINGTON ON MONDAY...AND THIS WILL CREATE AN ONSHORE FLOW OVER SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NORTHWEST OREGON. THIS MAY MAKE IT HARDER FOR THE SNOW LEVEL TO REACH THE VALLEY FLOORS ON MONDAY...THOUGH THE AIR MAY BE COLD ENOUGH IN SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON AND NEAR PORTLAND THAT THE SNOW LEVEL MAY REACH THE SURFACE AT TIMES MONDAY.

BE SURE TO TAKE ANY PRECAUTIONS TO PREPARE FOR THE UPCOMING COLD WEATHER...SUCH AS PROTECTING WATER PIPES OR ANY REMAINING TENDER PLANTS.

Snow for Wishcasterboy?! Well maybe.
All I care about right now is the rain from 95L.
Check that LBARS a perfect exicution of the thread the needle...lol.
Yes, go Skye! Please.
I love Skye.....best weather girl on the blog guys!
Geez...LMAO...on the LBAR!
Obviously there is no contender.
24W is expected to be a cat. 5.
Who on here knows the significance of the LBAR and/or the CLP?
Besides Skye.
Who also might know about the XTRP?
All I know is the LBAR is one of the most accurate models. I never liked the CLP model that much, it's abbreviation reminds me of a nasty word!
Who knows what time it really is?
What blog is this Skye?

9:46 where I am.
Someone tell me about the XTRP....please.
Rand, i'm becoming concerned.
The XTRP model shows the direction the storm is moving in... LOL
Go ahead and look it up on Wikepedia!
Michael....not nice...LOL!
Go ahead and teach them the rest Michael.
It's not on Wikipedia!
LMAO...lots of interesting stuff not on Wiki!
Yes Mr. Randrewl!
Who knows what extrapolation means?
I'm not a big fan of Wikipedia.
Who knows what extrapolation means?
Measuring data?
It has some information on models here.
What's with all the questions?
Specifically regarding tropical storms. What does it mean to extrapolate the motion?
The questions are to help you honestly learn something here rather than have you just drivel on about nothing!
Extrapolation means taking existing data and making a forecast based on it; for example, if a storm is moving to the west and has been for a while, you can extrapolate the future locations based on the current movement. It does not take changes in steering currents into account, so it will likely be wrong past a few hours.
There are actually several kinds of extrapolation; the simplest is what I described above:

Linear extrapolation
This means creating a tangent line at the end of the known data and extending it beyond that limit. A linear extrapolation will only provide good results when used to extend the graph of an approximately linear function. A linear extrapolation can be done easily with a ruler on a written graph or with a computer. An example is a trend line.

Conic extrapolation
A conic section can be created using five points near the end of the known data. If the conic section created is an ellipse or circle, it will curve back on itself. A parabolic or hyperbolic curve will not, but may curve back relative to the X-axis. This type of extrapolation could be done with a conic sections template on a written graph or with a computer.

Polynomial extrapolation
A polynomial curve can be created through the entire known data or just near the end. The resulting curve can then be extended beyond the end of the known data. Polynomial extrapolation is typically done by means of Lagrange interpolation or using Newton's method of finite differences to create a Newton series that fits the data. The resulting polynomial may be used to extrapolate the data.


Link
Dang Michael...that's pretty good.
I was wanting our uneducated friends to answer that....but that's cool. Now they know!
I knew the models, now I know how they work, great! Anything else?
So what about the CLP? Michael...stay off this one please.
You know....the model that runs straight North.
The brown one. What is this model telling us?
Come on Wish....you must be hitting Wiki! Tell me!
It's telling us it has no idea where the storm is going!
Sorry, I was busy.
Time is up.
The Clipper is the historical model.....based on past formations it lays out the most historical path.
You can learn something here if you learn to listen!
I'm listening.
So, all those spaghetti lines on the model chart might be starting to make sense?
Evrything on that map has a purpose.
More spaghetti's!






I love spaghetti!
What is that chart telling you? Being a tropical weather guy....what do you see there?
Which direction is this disturbance moving....what models buy into it and what do you believe?
I see two models clustering toward a track into the pacific. Three other models take 95L on a track too the northwest, and others seem to stall it or dissipate it.
It's moing westward. I would agree most with the BAMS, accept I think she's going to dissipate.
Completely
Nice. Good start. Looks to me like the GFDL is dropping this system on this run. Am I wrong?
It seems like a lot of the models don't even have a track posted for it.
Here's the positions....where has it moved?


Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
25/2345 UTC 12.1N 77.8W TOO WEAK 95L
25/1745 UTC 11.5N 78.6W T1.0/1.0 95L
25/1145 UTC 11.2N 78.4W T1.0/1.0 95L
25/0545 UTC 11.2N 78.7W TOO WEAK 95L
24/2345 UTC 10.9N 78.3W TOO WEAK 95L

Has it moved North...West....East...or South?
West
Forget the models now. Where is it going in your observance?
And south
A little to the WNW before it dies.
Actually it's moved west and north.
Well, based on the XTRP....the black line...this system is drifting North still.
I could agree on a Westward motion but not until the XTRP tells me so.
Guess you will have too wait until the next model run comes in.
Recon has been tasked to fly this invest Monday. That means they are on notice now. Any invest that might threaten a land mass is tasked in advance. They are ready to fly tonight if necessary.
Or the flight can be canceled.
What do you think?
No, I don't have to wait. I already know this one.
How?
Just scroll back to the spaghetti chart....see the red GFDL line?
That's all I need to know right now.
The scraggly one?
Hard to believe....just this morning the GFDL was pushing a Cat2....but I still like this one.
Yeah.....the red line that curls up and goes nowhere. That's my track!
That's where you think she's going, or is it giving you an idea of where she's going?
Where did you get an intensity forecast that made 95L a Cat 2?
Nah.....that's just what will happen.

You're young and not experienced in tropical stuff. Just wait till next season. You will learn much.....unless you keep running on about stuff you know nothing about.
Tell me, Miko curiousio.
Go back on the blog....Michael posted this morning about the GFDL.
Look boy....you don't understand this stuff!
I have done all I am willing to do for you.
Figure it out!
Oh brother, first i'm on to something, next thing you know I don't have a clue.
Need help wishcaster?
Rich....Nice to see you...maybe you can help this person.
LOL Rand I'll see what I can do...
Atmos is the best! I'll be lurking now.
Looks like you've been going WILD in here Rand...LOL!
I'm 16!
Rand was just guessing.
I have a basic understanding of the weather. I never said anything about being a professional.
CB!! How are ya?
I would like to learn more about the weather, that being what I came here for in the first place. But I don't want to learn it from an asshole.
Well you've come to the right place. You'll learn just by reading others' conversations, and myself along with many others are open to any questions.
Looks like Rand was getting wild CB...LOL!
Buster.....NO!
Ok, lets start with what does the GFDL tell you.
Rich knows about the GFDL. Listen
Wish!
Not you Buster.
I'd agree more with the LBAR shown there, a passage NNE, however, when it moves there it will be facing very hostile wind shear that will probably tear it right apart. I do not develop this disturbance.
The GFDL is a specialized forecast model used for tropical systems. It is the "favorite" model to use when forecasting tropical systems because it is on average the most accurate over a season. Along with the other lines you see on one of the spaghetti maps, the GFDL model gives you one model's opinion on what will happen to the storm.
Get Wild on My Blog Buster! Not here please!
Models have an opinion?
You can think of it that way. Models use extremely complex calculations and equations to derive their own forecast for a certain time. It is like an "opinion" because the data that goes in is the same, but their calculations are all different and so it results in different forecasts, or "opinions".
I though they just compiled information!
Well they do, but they also get forecasts out of that information, which are all different. Because of their difference, you can think of it as a collection of "opinions"
So if 95L had a forecasted track, would it follow the GFDL or BAMS?
Tell me something you think I don't know.
Blimey! At first I thought you were being unfairly picked on Wishcaster. However now I agree with Randrewl to a great extent.

Wishcaster, you have almost no knowledge of Invests, storms or tracking models, you really should do some homework before making a fool of yourself on a blog.

I don't agree with GDFL, I would be heading more to the conclusion of LBAR.
If the National Hurricane Center were to put out a forecast for 95L they would look at all of those model's "opinions", and current weather information such as the satellite and surface analysis. Then, they will decide where to draw their track and at what intensity for each point. They may decide that the BAMS seems more accurate, or maybe the GFDL is the most accurate. If they are not quite sure, they will usually take what is known as a "consensus", or an average forecast out of all of those models. They will find the middle line and use something along that line as their own track. In other cases, they may look at the GFDL and agree with that because of its history as the most reliable model.
Why the LBAR?
If that happens Vanagew it will be torn up pretty quickly I would think.
Vanagew, don't consider me so ignorant.
LBAR, because of the momentum shown by the earlier activity of the invest. It is very rare that a storm like that can cross over Panama and not get ripped apart, so we can count out BAM medium. Traditionally invests head more north than west, so that is why I have come to that conclusion.
What? This time of year Invests do not do what you just stated!
Learn the tropics friend!
Also yes, the windshear would be too great, so if it does follow LBAR it will have a very short lifespan.

Wishcaster, I would consider you less ignorant if you knew what you were talking about. All I have seen is a whole load of questions and dilly-dallying forecasts.

As for you Rand...I think you are very rude and discourteous, if you want a flame war you shall find you have met your match.
It should dissipate from high shear; if not, it will head west.
I would be most impressed if the ignorant one calling another igorant would go away!
That's how this works here.
Its caught in the low level flow for now so its not going that far north, but the subtropical high will be weakening to its north so maybe allow for some northerly motion in a couple of days.
Probably not CB, but they have Hydrometeorological models for your idea.
Vana, I wanted to get somebody elses opinion on this. What you say doesn't even add up so back off.
Vanagew...I'm sure you do...you are just too ignorant to catch my drift!
I'm really getting pissed of by how your treating me Vana.
Let me tell you how it works rand...

I do not have time for the arrogant stuck up types like you. You just proved yourself to be a loudmouth fool, whose gift is flaming. Tell you what, one day you may actually decide to get a life.

If not, then I warn you, you shall see more stars than the hubble space telescope.
Please...bring your flames right here right now!
Try searching around here
LMAO...if you knew weather you would not harass me! You are just another idiot weather wannabe type idiot!
We get many of your type here. Grow up and learn something.
I can't help you.
For the love of God I just wanted to learn somehting.

Is it over yet?
Why wouldn't I? What are you going to do? Flame me over the internet I guess...amusing no doubt. Listen here, I currently have a Masters in Geographical sciences and am studying towards a doctorate, so maybe you should be careful where you tread.

As for the LBAR model, I am sticking by that. The GDFL route maybe realistic, but a Category Two Hurricane as forecast is not. Once the disturbance goes further north, shear above 20kts will tear it apart. I generally agree with Wishcasters hypothesis about the northerly movement.
What about here CB?
LOL Cat 2? No way from the GFDL?
Vanagew....Have you ever met my friend Atmos? He is a young and really smart tropical guy!
Maybe you should talk to him. You are too far off the ignorant edge for me man!
Oh, so now you agree with me. Make up your mind Vana. Geography is not meteorology!
Well I can't find any university models or pre-existing studies.
You could try and read this...
LOL CB!!
Why can't we just learn from eachother instead of fighting?
Is this for me?
Nah Wish....I would rather laugh my ass off!
Vanagew...Who do you think you are?
I was talking to Atmos.
Good night CB!

I'm off too. Good night everyone, don't get too wild!...LOL :)
No Wishcaster the link was for CB.

Have a good night everyone!
I feel like i'm in a room with a bunch of monkeys.
Thanks for the headache Randy and Vany.
Have a nice evening Atoms
I'm here to stay Rand.
Where is the LBAR freak?
See ya Rich...you should stay.
It's on the spaghetti map dummy!
Rich?
Oh...that line! So sorry.
What I meant was i'll be on this blog for however long it exists
Your never sorry for anything Rand. Even when you should be.
Easy to tell that someone knows nothing about the tropics...the LBAR is introduced!
LBAR is introduced! That means nothing.
The LBAR is worthless in tropical workings. As a stand alone model.....forget it!
LBAR (Limited area sine transform BARotropic) is a two-dimensional track prediction model which solves the shallow-water equations initialized with vertically averaged (850-200 hPa) winds and heights from the Aviation Run of the MRF global model (Horsfall et al 1997). An idealized symmetric vortex and a constant vector (equal to the initial storm motion vector) are added to the global model analysis to represent the storm circulation. The boundary conditions are obtained from the global model forecast, and the model equations are solved using the spectral sine transform technique described by Chen et al (1997). To make LBAR timely, initial and boundary conditions are obtained from the 6 hr old MRF forecast. LBAR was developed as an operational version of the experimental VICBAR model (Aberson and DeMaria 1994).

Good night jackass!
You are out of touch boy. Forget you.
GFDL is engaged in comprehensive long lead-time research to expand the scientific understanding of the physical processes that govern the behaviour of the atmosphere and the oceans as complex fluid systems. These systems can then be modeled mathematically and their phenomenology can be studied by computer simulation methods.

GFDL's accomplishments include the development of the first climate models to study global warming, the first comprehensive ocean prediction codes, and the first dynamical models with significant skill in hurricane track and intensity predictions. Much current research within the laboratory is focussed around the development of Earth System Models for assessment of natural and human-induced climate change.

That doesn't sound useless to me.
LMAO...young boys are always like this. I see what I see....regardless of the models.
Models are only data .....they are not the end result.....regarding a non-storm!
You or the boys Rand!
Aren't you supposed to be setting a example as the adult?
Get ever yourself and look toward me with open eyes.
The GFDL is the best Global Model. Then GFS ...etc.
The Globals are it!
I refuse to support the GFDL in a non-storm situation. We do not have a storm here.
The Globals are useless right now.
I know how to work the GFDL in a storm situation....ask anyone.
This is not it. So, the GFDL dies Invest 95L....I agree....unless it does not die!
See....this is the key to the tropics.
Until you really have something....you don't!
I came here to learn and all I have learned is hate! What kind of person teaches hate Rand?
Life is nothing but change!
Tropical weather is beyond most people.
Takes a certain understanding.
How long did you say you've been studying tropical weather?
I do not have to explain myself. For right now I chose to!
I am a Tropic person. Anyone wants to debate me on that....bring it on!
HOW LONG RAND!?
boy lots of attitude and not much weather on here tonight, eh?
Hi Snow, I need to calm down.
I swear Rand knows how to get into my head.
I live in the tropics. I've lived through a lot of blows.
So what. But I have learned through that to know what I know. I am no Met...don't want to be one.
I know more than most mets simply because tropical systems are my favorite study area.

Listen to Snowboy...he knows!
.. and I salute that Rand - you are focussed!

I am focussed on winter weather, now that the tropics are dead, and we are going to get our first REAL taste of winter across much of the continent next week.

You may be educated in the matter of tropical weather Randy, but there's something morbid about you.
Yeah Snowboy...I believe winter is heading your way! Always nice to see you on the blog!
We could get an inch or two of snow in Vancouver WA on Monday night.
you could get much more snow later in the week, WCB..
I know you don't, that's why you get this....
LMAO!
What makes you say that snow?
hey, can you tone it down a tad Rand? it's cool to have snow in the forecast..
LOL....I will do my best Snowboy!
I'm going to ignore you Rand, because your driving me crazy.
that's how I'm reading the overall set up that is developing, WCB - models are all flailing and not doing well with the sudden cold, so I'm just looking at how I think things will develop (which is systems moving up along the front marking the outer edge of the cold air as it moves southeast)..
That's great Wish........When the tropics are hot you will really spin!
If we can't even have a simple conversation without getting into a argument, then what's the point of even trying. I could have been your friend but you ruined it for me and yourself. Have fun with the rest of your life.
hey dudes, too hot for me - maybe the Arctic front later in the week will cool you down a bit. g'night.
It does not look like a strong front heading my way at least Snowboy. I do not expect too much in the temp drop!
The Mets are saying that...but I doubt it.
Bye Snow, bye everyone!
Nice to see you Snowboy.
490. IKE
Folks arguing with each other in cyberspace at 3-4 o'clock in the morning. Geez.
491. melly
I never knew Weather was such a vicious
hobby. Maybe I should take up women's archery
Morning everyone
493. IKE
Now that the tropics are over with..speaking of not getting along...how about people that get into a fight the morning after Thanksgiving when their rushing into a store to buy Xmas gifts. OMG! At 5 in the morning! Getting into a fight for a gift.

People mugging someone for a PS3.

And good morning Nash.
494. IKE
95L is about dead.
Anybody in here???
Looks like storms are firing in the area again this morning. Have they taken the invest down?
Hmmm . . .. the storms to the east of the circulation I am seeing seem unconnected . . . maybe it's really done this time . . .