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Central American disturbance decays; Philippines brace for another typhoon

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:23 PM GMT on November 26, 2006

A tropical disturbance (95L) near 11N, 78W, just north of Panama, has continued to grow less organized. Wind shear has increased from 10 to 20 knots over the disturbance in the past 24 hours, which probably accounts for the storm's deterioration. There is now very little heavy thunderstorm activity, and this morning's QuikSCAT satellite pass showed no surface circulation, and winds of barely 20 mph. The system is expected to drift slowly westward towards Nicaragua, and could bring heavy rains there later this week. None of the computer models are developing the system, and NHC has stopped running its preliminary set of models on it.

In the Western Pacific, the Philippine Islands are anxiously watching Tropical Storm Durian, which is on track to hit the main island of Luzon later this week. Intensity forecasts have Durian developing into a Category 4 storm by landfall, which would make it the fourth major typhoon to hit Luzon in the past two monts.

I'll be back Monday morning with an update.
Jeff Masters

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

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I guess this year is over:)...we should start preparing for next year

The names are up above
Tracking Durian at the moment. JTWC forecast currently goes for 130kt landfall. I'll be keeping a close eye on the system and am on standby to fly to Manila on Tuesday to try and intercept this.
TyphoonHunter~ don't forget your camera..I just checked out your pics from your other chases.

Durian~ credit NOAA~

Got a little white showing in the NNE quadrent.
That is starting to look quite organized.

I hope it doesn't intensify as much as expected. The Philippines have had enough weather recently . . .
Durain is the name of this fruit

They just had a bad ferry accident in the Phillippines, a little storm blew up, with some waves. Took down an old wood ferry with alot of cement, rice & people. They are looking for 21 including one of the mayors. 14 dead so far...this was worse than their last typhoon (in deaths not damages).

Just kinda looking for the Phillipines name of this typhoon...not really finding it. But posting what I'm running across...Like these interesting weather symbols...

credit~ Phillippines 24-HOUR PUBLIC WEATHER FORECAST

Slightly disturbing...from PAGASA (this is like the Phillippines NOAA)~ Tropical Cyclone Update
As of today, 27 November 2006 no tropical cyclone is threatening or affecting the Philippines
Hey Skyepony.
Will definitely not forget my camera! This time in 24 hours should have a much better idea whether I will be heading down there. Too early to tell right now, but things are looking promising.
so sorry for Phillippines but glad the one near us is breaking up. Time for storms to be over!!!
Thanks for the update Dr Masters and HI everyone. back to decorating!
if you ask me DURIAN looks a little mass up like there some wond shear
Say it isnt so. Looks like another miss for So Cal...

some marine layer cloudiness mainly
south of Point Conception. High cloudiness associated with the
system should start streaming over the area within the next several
hours. Latest model runs agree well with timing of the
system...however strength of system appears to be diminishing. Both
NAM-WRF and GFS are backing off on moisture and intensity of the
system. In GFS...NAM...and UKMET solutions...500 mb temperatures are
bit warmer...850 mb mixing ratios have decreased...and system starts
to lose its tilt as it moves south of Point Conception. For sake of
consistency...probability of precipitation will be left alone...although probability of precipitation may be
overdone for south of Point Conception. Areas north of Point
Conception will do much better than areas south of Point Conception.
Snow levels are overdone too...as system is losing some of the cold
air associated with it. UKMET seems to be most aggressive bringing
500 mb temperatures to near -23 degrees celsius...while NAM and GFS
are warmer. Forecast will increase snow levels some in the early
hours of the system and will add mention to isolated thunderstorms
over waters north of Point Conception.
Skypony the PAGASA area of responsibility isn't until a system enters 135E so technically that statement no tropical cyclone is threatening the area is correct.

as soon Durian is within the 135E area it will be monitored with warnings and named Reming

any one there?????????
Hey Pottery - I thought I killed it (the blog -not the Season)
CB, Relapse - & you were doing so well...
Intervention!
By the people, for the people, it does seem to be what people are talking about. I guess they have to. How will we ever really know the average temperature of the entire mass of the earth? Will the Supreme court determine it?
40 years?.......wwht...did you forget that in the 70's....it ws feared we were in global cooling...you know..you'veee a right to think global warming is human related....it's unproven both ways...but get your facts straight or shut up
All of that cold air that zipped by us last week here in Florida: Where do you think it went? Was it pulled, did it give 95L a push, or a little of both?
Posted By: ricderr at 7:55 PM EST on November 26, 2006.
what a dumbass...even when you're wrong you're right...god help you

No, really, it was a lot of cold air headed South.
ric - Why do you even try? NO ONE will make him change his mind... I just click this:
Well it is safe to say the Atlantic season is over. A few days are left but nothing is expected. What is the expectations for the season in the South Pacific? What are the likehood of a major cyclone heading for Australia any time soon?
Merry Xmas
10day GFSx...Link
...SNOW ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM PST TUESDAY FOR THE LOWER COLUMBIA AND INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR OF SOUTHWEST WASHINGTON...THE GREATER PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER METRO AREAS AND THE CENTRAL WILLAMETTE VALLEY...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN PORTLAND HAS ISSUED A SNOW ADVISORY... WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 2 AM MONDAY TO 6 AM PST TUESDAY.

COLD AIR SPREADING IN FROM THE NORTH WILL LOWER THE SNOW LEVEL TO 500 FEET OR LESS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT ALONG THE INTERSTATE 5 CORRIDOR FROM CASTLE ROCK AND KELSO DOWN THROUGH PORTLAND AND VANCOUVER TO NEAR SALEM. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ABOVE 500 TO 1000 FEET LATER TONIGHT...WITH POSSIBLE ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ABOVE LATER 500 FEET ON MONDAY...AND ACCUMULATIONS UP TO AN INCH BELOW 500 FEET ON MONDAY. ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE ON MONDAY NIGHT...WITH BE GREATEST AMOUNTS ABOVE 500 FEET.

A SNOW ADVISORY MEANS THAT PERIODS OF SNOW WILL CAUSE PRIMARILY TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES. BE PREPARED FOR SNOW COVERED ROADS AND LIMITED VISIBILITIES...AND USE CAUTION WHILE DRIVING.

I've got my fingers crossed for snow.
Durian

Durian
Folks, with the supreme court thing: All the court can do is say that the EPA can regulate carbon dioxide. The EPA doesn't actually have to do it!
I suspect that article is not exactly written by nonpartisan observers.

The supreme court is not a legislative body, all it can do is interpert or strike down laws. The most they could do is tell the EPA that they have to regulate CO2 emissions. How or how much is not up to the court.
What kind of Nor'easter in 7 to 9 days. Snow/rain/wind and where is it coming from. Also how will it affect Cape Cod and eastern New England.
49. N3EG
The Supreme Court can elect presidents, so it can stop global warming, right? After all, global warming is responsible for screwing up everything in the world that Bush hasn't already screwed up, right? Sheesh...
nutmeg
Xmas
Waves look to be ~20' with Durian.

Seems the EPA would more than gladly efforce what it could to reduce GHG, given their stance on the matter.
From the discussion~
A WEAK LOW PRESSURE TROUGH LIES ALONG 77W SOUTH OF 16N. THIS
FEATURE IS PRODUCING CLOUDINESS AND A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA. SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT OF THIS
SYSTEM IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

$$
GR
the wave height reported by JTWC as of 12am UTC is 22 feet
Hades, Considering the public forecast as well as about any other forecaster in the area is calling for broken trees in 4 days, it's odd that PAGASA is saying no threat. Guess they don't bother with the 5 day cone unless it starts west of 135E. Thanks for the name...
Invest 95L is no longer on the Navy site...RIP.
Yes, RIP to what could have been the last storm of the season.
Anticlimatic closure to an anticlimatic season, I suppose. Not to mention the ITCZ basically looks dead now.

Night everyone.
you're welcome Skypony

PAGASA actually wrote a summary today without naming the storm.

At 2 p.m. PST today, Tropical Storm (International Name "DURIAN") was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 1,440 kms East of Visayas (10.2N, 139.4E) with maximum sustained winds of 75 kph (40 knots) near the center and gustiness of up to 90 kph. (50 knots) It is forecast to move west at 19 kph.
Durian is a very large looking storm.
Hey guys. Tropical storm Durian is currently sittitng just to the north of Yap with winds of 40kts. As it stands I'm preparing to fly to Manila tomorrow to meet storm chaser Geoff Mackley and check out what Durian has in store for the Phillipines. JMA forecasting winds up to 65kts but will Durian do a Xangsane, Cimaron or Chebi?
Will post more updates here as they come!

Bump up for the Docs blog...Last Monday of the 06 Cane season..good riddance!