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Causes of the Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:56 PM GMT on August 13, 2010

The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010 is one of the most intense, widespread, and long-lasting heat waves in world history. Only the European heat wave of 2003, which killed 35,000 - 50,000 people, and the incredible North American heat wave of July 1936, which set all-time extreme highest temperature records in fifteen U.S. states, can compare. All of these heat waves were caused by a highly unusual kink in the jet stream that remained locked in place for over a month. The jet stream is an upper-level river of air, between the altitudes of about 30,000 - 40,000 feet (10,000 - 12,000 meters). In July over Europe and Asia, the jet stream has two branches: a strong southern "subtropical" jet that blows across southern Europe, and a weaker "polar" jet that blows across northern Europe. The polar jet stream carries along the extratropical cyclones (lows) that bring the mid-latitudes most of their precipitation. The polar jet stream also acts as the boundary between cold, Arctic air, and warm tropical air. If the polar jet stream shifts to the north of its usual location, areas just to its south will be much hotter and drier than normal. In July 2010, a remarkably strong polar jet stream developed over northern Europe. This jet curved far to the north of Moscow, then plunged southwards towards Pakistan. This allowed hot air to surge northwards over most of European Russia, and prevented rain-bearing low pressure systems from traveling over the region. These rain-bearing low pressure systems passed far to the north of European Russia, then dove unusually far to the south, into northern Pakistan. The heavy rains from these lows combined with Pakistan's usual summer monsoon rains to trigger Pakistan's most devastating floods in history.


Figure 1. Winds of the jet stream at an altitude of 300 millibars (roughly 30,000 feet high). Left: Average July winds from the period 1968 - 1996 show that a two-branch jet stream typically occurs over Europe and Asia--a northern "polar" jet stream, and a more southerly "subtropical" jet stream. Right: the jet stream pattern in July 2010 was highly unusual, with a very strong polar jet looping far to the north of Russia, then diving southwards towards Pakistan. Image credit: NOAA/ESRL.

What caused this unusual jet stream pattern?
The unusual jet stream pattern that led to the 2010 Russian heat wave and Pakistani floods began during the last week of June, and remained locked in place all of July and for the first half of August. Long-lived "blocking" episodes like this are usually caused by unusual sea surface temperature patterns, according to recent research done using climate models. For example, Feudale and Shukla (2010) found that during the summer of 2003, exceptionally high sea surface temperatures of 4°C (7°F) above average over the Mediterranean Sea, combined with unusually warm SSTs in the northern portion of the North Atlantic Ocean near the Arctic, combined to shift the jet stream to the north over Western Europe and create the heat wave of 2003. I expect that the current SST pattern over the ocean regions surrounding Europe played a key role in shifting the jet stream to create the heat wave of 2010. Note that the SST anomaly pattern is quite different this year compared to 2003, which may be why this year's heat wave hit Eastern Europe, and the 2003 heat wave hit Western Europe. Human-caused climate change also may have played a role; using climate models, Stott et al. (2004) found it very likely (>90% chance) that human-caused climate change has at least doubled the risk of severe heat waves like the great 2003 European heat wave.


Figure 2. A comparison of the departure of sea surface temperature (SST) from average just prior the the start of the great European heat waves of 2003 and 2010. Temperatures in the Mediterranean Sea were up to 4°C above average in 2003, which has been implicated as a major cause of the Western European heat wave of 2003. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

References
Feudale, L., and J. Shukla (2010), "Influence of sea surface temperature on the European heat wave of 2003 summer. Part I: an observational study", Climate Dynamics DOI: 10.1007/s00382-010-0788-0

Stott, P.A., Stone, D.A., and M.R. Allen (2004), "Human contribution to the European heatwave of 2003", Nature 432, 610-614 (2 December 2004) | doi:10.1038/nature03089. (Here is a free version of the paper, presented at a conference.)

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO) has posted an analysis of the recent extreme weather events, concluding, "the sequence of current events matches IPCC projections of more frequent and more intense extreme weather events due to global warming."

See also my posts, The Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010: 102°F in Moscow and, Over 15,000 likely dead in Russian heat wave; Asian monsoon floods kill hundreds more.

Moscow sees real relief from the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010
For the first time in more than a month, temperatures at Moscow's Domodedovo airport failed to exceed 30°C (86°F) today. Clouds and thunderstorms blew into the city this morning, keeping the high temperature down to just 29°C (84°F). This breaks a string of 35 straight days when the temperature reached 30°C. At Moscow's official observing site, the Moscow Observatory, this string was 30 days. Moscow's average high temperature for August 13 is 20°C (68°F), so today's temperatures were still well above normal. However, today's cool-down marks the beginning of the end for Russia's great heat wave. The latest forecast for Moscow calls for high temperatures below 30°C for the coming week, and Moscow may not exceed that threshold for the remainder of summer. Long range forecasts from the ECMWF and GFS models continue to suggest that a series of troughs of low pressure will attack the ridge of high pressure anchored over Russia, bringing cooler temperatures just 5°C (8°F) above average to Russia late next week. By ten days from now, the ECMWF model shows a strong trough of low pressure over Moscow, and a end to the Great Russian Heat Wave of 2010. Moscow still has to concern itself with smoke from the wildfires burning southeast of the city; winds are expected to shift early next week and bring the smoke towards the city again. However, the cooler weather should aid fire-fighting efforts, so the smoke problems should not be as bad as last week's nightmare.


Figure 2. Image from NASA's Aqua satellite of smoke from wildfires burning to the southeast of Moscow yesterday, August 12, 2010. Northerly winds were keeping the smoke from blowing over the city. Image credit: NASA.

The tropics are quiet
The remnants of Tropical Depression Five continue to bring heavy rain to portions of Southeast Louisiana today. Up to five inches of rain has fallen in regions near New Orleans. The GFS model predicts that the remains of TD 5 could move off the coast of Mississippi by the middle of next week and regenerate, but none of the other models is making this forecast. Both the GFS and ECMWF models are predicting that a tropical storm will develop off the coast of Africa by next Friday, August 20.

Donations urgently needed in Pakistan
The devastation wrought by the worst flooding in Pakistan's history requires a huge response by the international community. Wunderblogger Dr. Ricky Rood, author of our Climate Change Blog, has a friend working in Pakistan who underscored the desperate situation there:

This is the worst natural disaster in the history of Pakistan in terms of number of people and area affected. Although not as many people have been killed as in the 2005 earthquake, we have already nearly 900,000 displaced persons thus far just in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Crops are destroyed; shops, hotels, and other business have simply been swept away in Swat, which had just this year been cleared of Taliban and was on the way to recovery; and districts closer to Peshawar and parts of Peshawar district are still, or perhaps again after yesterday/today, under water. After the immediate emergency response, it will be years of rebuilding to replace what has been lost and to start to develop again. I know you have the power to control the weather, so if you cold give us a week or two without more rain at least we could keep the helicopters flying and give people a chance to go to their homes, recover what might still be there, set up tents if we can get enough to them, and start to clean up."

She gave the following recommendations for charities that do work in the flood-ravaged zone, and are effective at getting aid to those who need it the most:

Doctors Without Borders

The International Red Cross

MERLIN medical relief charity

The mobile giving service mGive allows one to text the word "SWAT" to 50555. The text will result in a $10 donation to the UN Refugee Agency (UNHCR) Pakistan Flood Relief Effort.

She mentioned that it is better to send money to the organizations doing the relief work than to try to organize shipments of goods.

Jeff Masters

Climate Change Heat

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

3001. tkeith
It seems shear aint gonna be a problem for it

3002. IKE
Looks how far north the lows are coming off Africa. That's the longitude of the Cape Verdes. Seems like the models may be correct IF this low develops tropically, in having it head toward the open North Atlantic...

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
527 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW...THE REMNANTS FROM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE...REMAINS
SITUATED NEAR MONTGOMERY ALABAMA. THIS IS A BIT NORTH OF WHERE THE
MODELS SHOW THE SYSTEM. IN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS...A VERY MOIST/
MARITIME HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE EXTENDS FROM NEAR LOUISIANA TO
ALABAMA WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER/PWATS/ AROUND 2.5 INCHES ACROSS
THE BREADTH OF THE RIDGE. THIS IS A VERY FAVORABLE PATTERN FOR
TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT...MINUS A LARGE WATER BODY AT THE
SURFACE OF COURSE.


LMAO!!
3004. surfmom
Good Morning, Never to old to experience a first, although I'm only 4 years into being a weather geek-- yellow circle over land - is this a first in weather history?
3005. IKE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
527 AM CDT SUN AUG 15 2010

.SHORT TERM...
THE MODELS REMAIN REMARKABLY CONSISTENT SHOWING THE SURFACE LOW
OVER ALABAMA MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE
LATER TODAY AND THEN INTO THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WATERS TO
THE SOUTH TONIGHT. THIS LOW LOOKS LIKE IT SHOULD BE VERTICALLY
STACKED FROM THE SURFACE INTO THE MID LEVELS WITH AN UPPER HIGH
CENTER JUST OFF TO THE NORTHWEST OF THE SYSTEM. THE LARGER SCALE
HIGH AND LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS WILL BE MOVING SUCH THAT THE COL OR
WEAKNESS WILL TAKE THE LOW WEST TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST OR SOUTH
CENTRAL LOUISIANA COAST ON TUESDAY. THE BIG QUESTION OF
COURSE...IS WILL THIS LOW DEVELOP/STRENGTHEN INTO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION OR STORM. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS INDICATING A
LOW/20 PERCENT CHANCE OF TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS AS OF 100 AM CDT THIS MORNING. I AM EXPECTING TO SEE
THIS CHANCE OF DEVELOPMENT GET HIGHER THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.

GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...THE CLUSTER OF TRACKS OVER WATER
GIVE THE LOW PLENTY OF TIME OVER THE WARM WATERS OF THE NORTH GULF
OF MEXICO TO ATTAIN TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS. THE GFS REMAINS THE
STRONGEST MODEL SHOWING TROPICAL STORM/GALE FORCE WINDS AROUND 50
KNOTS TO THE EAST OF THE LOW CENTER. THE ECMWF...WHICH HAD BEEN
ADVERTISING FAIRLY WEAK SOLUTIONS...IS NOW SHOWING A PRESSURE
GRADIENT ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE LOW THAT COULD EASILY SUPPORT
35 KNOTS OF WIND. GIVEN THE MODEL CONSISTENCY...HAVE RAISED THE
WINDS IN THE GRIDS TO NEAR 30 KNOTS OVER THE GULF COASTAL WATERS
MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY...AND THIS MAY HAVE TO BE RAISED AGAIN
LATER TODAY. REFER TO THE MARINE SECTION BELOW FOR ADDITIONAL
DETAILS.

THE GREATEST IMPACT FROM THIS SYSTEM IS LIKELY TO BE VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL WITH EXCESSIVE AMOUNTS LIKELY NEAR THE SOUTHEAST
LOUISIANA COAST...AND POSSIBLY AT LEAST AS FAR INLAND AS THE
MISSISSIPPI GULF COAST AND THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. THIS IS
VERY TROUBLESOME GIVEN MANY AREAS ARE ALREADY SATURATED FROM THE
LAST WEEK OR SO OF RAINS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE
NECESSARY LATER TODAY FOR AT LEAST COASTAL SECTIONS.

WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BRING TIDES UP TO AT LEAST 2 FEET ABOVE
NORMAL AS THE LOW NEARS THE COAST...BUT THAT COULD END UP BEING
HIGHER DEPENDING ON THE STRENGTH OF THE LOW. THE ASTRONOMICAL
TIDAL RANGES WILL BE INCREASING DURING THE MONDAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY PERIOD WITH RANGES INCREASING TO AROUND 2 FEET. A
COASTAL FLOOD WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NECESSARY IF TROPICAL STORM
WATCHES OR WARNINGS ARE NOT ISSUED. 22/TD

.LONG TERM...
THE LOW MAY STALL TO OUR WEST...SOMEWHERE IN WESTERN LOUISIANA OR
SOUTHEAST TEXAS BY THE WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY TIME PERIOD.
WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE HIGHER THAN NORMAL CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD LOWER CLOSER
TO NORMAL BY LATE IN THE WEEK AS THE LOW DISSIPATES. 22/TD

&&

.AVIATION...
CURRENT VFR CONDITIONS MAY BE BRIEFLY INTERRUPTED BY MVFR VSBYS
ASSOCIATED WITH FOG AROUND SUNRISE. AMPLE MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
WILL AGAIN ALLOW FOR CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BY MID-MORNING. VCTS
MENTIONED IN ALL TERMINALS...WITH A MORE ORGANIZED PERIOD OF
CONVECTION POSSIBLE AROUND SUNSET AS CIRCULATION AROUND ALABAMA LOW
SWINGS A VORT LOBE THROUGH THE AREA. 35
&&

.MARINE...
AN AREA OF WEAK LOW PRESSURE OVER SOUTH CENTRAL ALABAMA IS EXPECTED
TO DRIFT BACK SOUTH INTO COASTAL ALABAMA AND WESTERN FLORIDA
PANHANDLE REGION LATER TODAY.

GOING INTO MONDAY THROUGH MIDWEEK...THE DETAILS OF THE FORECAST WILL
DEPEND ON THE TIMING...EXACT MOVEMENT...AND STRENGTH OF THE SURFACE
LOW THAT THE MODELS SHOW MOVING WEST BACK TOWARDS THE MISSISSIPPI
AND SOUTHEAST LOUISIANA COASTS ON MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. HAVE
GONE CLOSE TO THE GFS FOR TRACK AND TIMING...HAVE TEMPERED WINDS
CONSIDERABLY FOR NOW. EVEN SO...EXPECT SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS OVER
THE EASTERN WATERS BY MONDAY AFTERNOON...SPREADING WESTWARD THROUGH
TUESDAY. STRICT GFS SOLUTION WOULD HAVE STORM FORCE WINDS MONDAY
NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...BUT A WEAKER SOLUTION SEEMS MORE FEASIBLE AT
THIS TIME. A GALE WATCH FOR MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY IS NOT OUT OF
THE QUESTION FOR LATER PACKAGES.
3006. tkeith
I agree Ike, I think our insurance policies i.e. SAL, ULL's have expired. We're at the mercy of the positions of the Highs now to protect the CONUS and the Islands.
3007. tkeith
Time for me to get ready for a round of "pasture pool"... Keep em honest in here Ike :)

Mornin Surf!
3008. tkeith
mornin homeless
3009. surfmom
Quoting tkeith:
I agree Ike, I think our insurance policies i.e. SAL, ULL's have expired. We're at the mercy of the positions of the Highs now to protect the CONUS and the Islands.

hummmmmmm - there's the gristly bone to go w/the coffee this morning
Well its nice at least the neighboring NWS talk about it.

CONCERNING THE RAIN FORECAST...THE MODELS DIFFER ON HOW THE UPPER
HIGH AND SURFACE LOW WILL INTERACT. LIKED THE NAM/ECMWF SOLUTION
TO THAT OF THE GFS IN KEEPING THE SURFACE LOW MORE OVER LAND OR
THE IMMEDIATE NORTHERN AND NORTHWESTERN GULF COASTS THROUGH MID
WEEK. THE UPPER LOW MAY GET OFFSHORE BUT ALL MODELS HAVE IT
LOOPING WESTWARD BEFORE MOVING BACK NORTHEAST...A BIT MADDENING
WHEN IT COMES TO IMPACTS AS SE TX COULD GO FROM LITTLE RAIN TO
VERY GOOD COVERAGE. DECIDED TO STAY WITH A CONSERVATIVE AND
CONSENSUS APPROACH...BRINGING THE BEST CHANCES OVER THE EAST
MONDAY AND TUESDAY AND MOST AREAS ON WEDNESDAY. IT IS JUST STILL
TOO EARLY TO GO WHOLE HOG WITH ONE MODEL OVER THE OTHER. DAYTIME
HIGH TEMPERATURES MAY BE HIGHER OR LOWER TWO DEGREES OR MORE
DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER OR RAIN COVERAGE OCCURS.

Quoting tkeith:
mornin homeless


Morning. :)
Quoting IKE:
Looks how far north the lows are coming off Africa. That's the longitude of the Cape Verdes. Seems like the models may be correct IF this low develops tropically, in having it head toward the open North Atlantic...



lol Ike, not all of them, there should be some long track storms this year that MAY make it all the way. It seems like the first storm may head out to sea, then the second one heads further west, which is part of a daily pattern from years past.
3013. IKE
Quoting tkeith:
I agree Ike, I think our insurance policies i.e. SAL, ULL's have expired. We're at the mercy of the positions of the Highs now to protect the CONUS and the Islands.


I've started focusing on systems heading toward the GOM. Major type systems. I'm still rooting for no one to be greatly impacted...not to sound self-centered.

Latest GFS takes the eastern ATL low/storm, slightly further south and west from the previous run, but still turns it around 60W...north of the islands...

204 hours...



288 hours...

.MARINE...
OVERNIGHT WINDS ARE CURRENTLY JUST BELOW SCEC CRITERIA. A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MAIN WEATHER FEATURE OVER
THE UPPER TEXAS COAST FOR THE FIRST HALF OF THE WEEK. SOUTH
WINDS SHOULD BE IN THE 5 TO 10 KNOT RANGE TODAY AND MONDAY WITH
SEAS 2 TO 3 FEET.

MODELS REMAIN IN PRETTY CLOSE AGREEMENT WITH DEVELOPING A SURFACE
LOW IN THE NORTHEAST GULF BY THE MID PART OF NEXT WEEK. THE BIG
QUESTION IS HOW MUCH THIS SYSTEM WILL INTENSIFY. A KEY FACTOR
DETERMINING THE LEVEL OF INTENSIFICATION WILL BE WHETHER OR NOT
THE LOW MOVES OUT OVER THE GULF...OR IF IT WILL HUG THE COAST. FOR
NOW...HAVE GONE WITH ECMWF SOLUTION WHICH HAS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM HUGGING THE COAST. WINDS AND WAVE HEIGHTS WILL INCREASE AS
THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES... BUT CURRENTLY ARE FORECAST TO REMAIN
BELOW SCA LEVELS. THE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS SYSTEM MOVING INLAND ON WED OVER LA IN ADVANCE OF AN UPPER
LEVEL TROF.

THE MARINE FORECAST SHOULD BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS IT COULD CHANGE SHOULD THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVE FURTHER
OFFSHORE AS SUGGESTED BY THE GFS AND NAM MODELS. THE TIMING OF THE
UPPER LEVEL TROF WILL ALSO DETERMINE WHAT EFFECTS OF THIS LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE FELT ALONG THE UPPER TEXAS COAST.

3015. aquak9
Good morning handsome men and gorgeous women. I hope all are well this Sunday morning.
3016. aquak9
hey Ike- didja read CrownWeather this morning? Do you think he's being a little too aggressive?
3017. IKE
Quoting aquak9:
hey Ike- didja read CrownWeather this morning? Do you think he's being a little too aggressive?


I'll take a look now.

I haven't read what he's calling for on XTD5, from anywhere else.

Maybe he's right.
3018. WxLogic
Good Morning...
3019. msphar
Good morning folks, quite a pulse of dry air/dust has preceeded this next wave just off Africa. I see it close to the Cape Verdes islands and NWS indicates its movement will be a bit southerly towards the ITCZ. This may give it moisture to combat that surrounding desiccated air it will encounter. The wave preceding it has been choked off so far as it approaches the islands. It will be a long road, from 17W to the islands.
3020. IKE
I'll say this much...a lot of these models have been way too aggressive on invests and storms up til now. That includes the GFS...CMC...NOGAPS...SHIPS...LGEM...HWRF...GFDL.

The ECMWF has been the other way in 2010, hardly showing anything w/Bonnie or Colin.

I can't speak for the UKMET because I haven't seen enough runs to form an opinion.
Good morning Aqua. Although at this moment I don't fit into either good looking category. Lol. I read Crown Weather's forecast. I hope he's being over aggressive. But I remember Humberto vividly so strengthening just off shore and quickly wouldn't surprise me at all. One thing I do agree with is any tropical anything coming ashore anywhere near the TX/LA border will come in at night. We wouldn't know what to do if we could see one as well as hear it. Lol.
Quoting robj144:


Were you there for Andrew?


i was
Quoting IKE:


I'll take a look now.

I haven't read what he's calling for on XTD5, from anywhere else.

Maybe he's right.


It also getting hard to ignore the sign Link of the Eastern Atlantic forming some named systems with the ECMWF and GFS in strong agreement, after TD 5 if there are any major impact on land it is going to come from the East.
3024. WxLogic
Tropics should start "heating" up by Tuesday.
For the people posting their storm experiences: What are your criteria for determining which storms you've been through? Tropical storm winds? Damage? Proximity to center?

Mornin' all.
3028. aquak9
hi homeless.

i consider ya'll my friends, and that makes everyone beautiful in my eyes.

ok, yeah I felt like CW was too aggressive w/the low in the gulf, but I gotta do a wait-n-see on the eastern atlantic situation.
3029. aquak9
g'morning Seenya Cheef.

Freak91- probably damage. That's what people fear the most, that's what gets carved into the memory.
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
For the people posting their storm experiences: What are your criteria for determining which storms you've been through? Tropical storm winds? Damage? Proximity to center?



Mine was where I lived at what time cause I don't remmber 90% of them. Although I know I was here. Getting old is a marvelous thing. :D
3031. aquak9
AAUURRGHH sporteguy you got me!!


shame on you!!
Quoting StormW:
Good morning!

Floater on 05L


Morning Storm. :)
3033. msphar
From 17W where the next wave lies to the Eastern tip of Puerto Rico where my boat is moored is roughly 49 degrees. That distance converts to a little more than 8 days in travel time for the wave. Much can happen in that time. It will be fun to watch.
Quoting aquak9:
hi homeless.

i consider ya'll my friends, and that makes everyone beautiful in my eyes.

ok, yeah I felt like CW was too aggressive w/the low in the gulf, but I gotta do a wait-n-see on the eastern atlantic situation.


He might be right, a tropical cyclone sitting over 31C waters and a low shear environment is never a good thing.
3035. IKE
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE...THE REMNANT OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
FIVE...IS LOCATED OVER SOUTHWESTERN GEORGIA. THIS SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO MOVE SOUTHWARD TOWARD THE NORTHERN GULF COAST TODAY AND
COULD EMERGE OVER THE GULF WATERS BY MONDAY WHERE CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR SOME DEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A LOW
CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF THIS SYSTEM BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH

3036. IKE
LOL...I posted that before reading it...SW Georgia???...if it's moving south that would come out in Apalachee Bay. South of Tallahassee,FL. Maybe it would have more time over water? Than again...NHC only gives a 20% chance within the next 48 hours.
3037. Gearsts
href="http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/analysis/carib/wave/00/index_sw3_m_loop.shtml" target="_blank">Link
The model run shown on Tropical Atlantic show ex-TD5 moving north, south and west,,,,,anyone have any real idea,or is it too early???
It is pretty impressive to see remnants of TD5 with 20% chance of becoming TD5 again considering it is & has been on land for several days.
06Z HWRF 05L Surface is bottom right hand corner





Edit: Add surface wind speeds

HOUR: 60.0 LONG: -89.20 LAT: 29.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 999.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 36.00
HOUR: 66.0 LONG: -90.10 LAT: 30.20 MIN PRESS (hPa): 1000.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 35.00
HOUR: 72.0 LONG: -90.70 LAT: 30.70 MIN PRESS (hPa): 998.00 MAX SURF WIND (KNOTS): 38.00
3041. pottery
Hello, and Good Morning.
The Temp bottomed out at 73F here this morning...
This is 'freezing' for August, and most unusual.
Bright sky and birdies singing.
Real nice.
3042. IKE
The Atlantic Basin Remains Quiet For Now

Aug 15, 2010 7:34 AM

The remains of Tropical Depression 5 will help to enhance the thunderstorm activity across the eastern Gulf of Mexico and across the Deep South over the next couple of days. Due to the storm's slow motion, heavy rainfall and flash flooding are a concern across parts of this area. A lack of upper-level support will keep the remnants from moving a great distance making flooding a concern. The heaviest rainfall is expected during the afternoon and evening, across the southern portions of Alabama, Mississippi and Georgia. By early next week, the system may actually loop south back toward the central Gulf Coast, with a very slight chance for regeneration.

Elsewhere across the Atlantic Basin, there are no other areas of concern with potential to develop tropically over the next 48 hours.

By AccuWeather.com Meteorologist Donald Pillittere
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
06Z HWRF 05L Surface is bottom right hand corner





That shows this becoming a 50knt storm... I think we will see Danielle out of this and then Earl out of the potential GFS storm
Quoting IKE:
Looks how far north the lows are coming off Africa. That's the longitude of the Cape Verdes. Seems like the models may be correct IF this low develops tropically, in having it head toward the open North Atlantic...

both lows will be fish storms
Mobile, AL here....partly cloudy right now and humid of course...lol...had some good downpours yesterday...hope that if TD5 does reform it is quick and small with no damage or flooding...
Quoting Thundercloud01221991:


That shows this becoming a 50knt storm... I think we will see Danielle out of this and then Earl out of the potential GFS storm


The winds you reference are at 900mb, which is about 3000 feet, not surface.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


The winds you reference are at 900mb, which is about 3000 feet, not surface.


either way it will probably be a TS if winds at 3000 ft are at 50 knts
3049. msphar
Good Morning Pottery, I see that next wave is about to reach the islands bringing some squally weather your way. It will reach the Northern islands a bit later according to Chris Parket - Monday night into Tuesday. So you shall have some rain to go with your unseasonably cool air. Perhaps it will snow ?
notting happern here this morning
Storms I have been through

1996 Hurricane Bertha
1996 Hurricane Hortense
1998 Hurricane Georges
2004 Tropical storm Jeanne

Not too many. I moved to Puerto Rico in 1996 and thought that was a typical year. We have been blessed since Georges, although Jeanne knocked out water and power for a week. It was a very strong tropical storm when it hit us.
3052. pottery
Quoting msphar:
Good Morning Pottery, I see that next wave is about to reach the islands bringing some squally weather your way. It will reach the Northern islands a bit later according to Chris Parket - Monday night into Tuesday. So you shall have some rain to go with your unseasonably cool air. Perhaps it will snow ?

LOL
We could also hope for a week of hot-sun. Snow would be interesting though, and the way 2010 is going I would not be surprised at anything!
We did have hail some years ago, so why not snow?
Quoting StormW:


I wouldn't be so sure about that.


Good Morning! What are your thoughts? East coast? GOM? (Hope not!) :)
Nearly 6hours late, but...
exTD5 has turned from heading north and east, and most recently has been heading due south.
- Date - - Time - - - - Location
14Aug 06amUTC - 32.5N86.5W
14Aug 12pmUTC - 32.8N85.8W
14Aug 06pmUTC - 33.0N85.5W
15Aug 12amUTC - 32.8N85.5W
15Aug 06amGMT - 32.5N85.5W

Copy&paste 32.5N86.5W-32.8N85.8W, 32.5N86.5W, 32.8N85.8W-33.0N85.5W, 33.0N85.5W-32.8N85.5W, 32.8N85.5W-32.5N85.5W, msy, apf into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee.
Not so hot there:

Link
3057. Gearsts
Quoting heretolearninPR:
Storms I have been through

1996 Hurricane Bertha
1996 Hurricane Hortense
1998 Hurricane Georges
2004 Tropical storm Jeanne

Not too many. I moved to Puerto Rico in 1996 and thought that was a typical year. We have been blessed since Georges, although Jeanne knocked out water and power for a week. It was a very strong tropical storm when it hit us.
Olga in 07
Been reading about the long range models. I found an interesting article along those lines. And I didn't even read the GW part. But the first part reminds me of...Famous Last Words. :) Houston Chronical Link


sciguy
| Hurricane Central
SciGuy
A science blog with Eric Berger

September 04, 2008
Why Ike's less likely to visit the Gulf.


Hurricane Ike remains an incredibly dangerous cyclone this morning with 145 mph winds, although the storm should encounter some wind shear in a day or two and weaken moderately.

However, by the time it reaches the vicinity of the Bahamas in five days' time and approaches Florida, it should re-strengthen to near category 4 status.

The latest models, shown below, portray three potential scenarios for Ike, two of which are disastrous for the United States.



The scenarios include:

1. South Florida strike: I spoke with a hurricane scientist I know in Miami yesterday and he was quite concerned about this possibility. The models certainly support this, and the heat potential of the waters near the Bahamas and Florida is quite high enough to support a major hurricane.

2. Re-Curve into the Atlantic: The GFS model has been advertising this solution for a couple of days now. The Bahamas would still likely get hammered, but the mainland United States would be spared. This scenario is most consistent with the climatology outlined below.

3. Northeast U.S. Coast: As bad as a strike on Miami would be, a strike on New York is worse. (How do you evacuate 4 million people from New York?). A major hurricane striking New York remains a low threat, high consequence scenario, even with Ike. But the climatology below suggests its possible, and some models have been hinting at such a scenario.

The official forecast track allows for all of the possibilities above.

What about the Gulf of Mexico? It's still entirely possible Ike could reach the Gulf, but such an eventuality seems historically unlikely at this time. Between 1900 and 2006, 95 storms have passed within 150 nautical miles of its present location.

Of the 95 storms, only seven have struck the United States. Just one, Hurricane Four of the 1901 Atlantic season, reached the Gulf of Mexico. It hit Grand Isle, Louisiana on Aug. 14, producing levee breaches which flooded New Orleans.




Oh...wow...that's not good. Thanks for the info. Hopefully the steering patterns will change and it will go out to sea. Or maybe not form at all.

Living here in Mobile, we have had our share of storms/hurricanes. Though I find them incredibly fascinating and somewhat awe inspiring....I like my air conditioning too much to want one to come this way! (Among other reasons like property damage and loss of life of course...) ;)
its getting higher i see yellow.
3062. Vero1
TROPICAL WEATHER DISCUSSION
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
805 AM EDT SUN AUG 15 2010

BASED ON 0600 UTC SURFACE ANALYSIS AND SATELLITE IMAGERY THROUGH
1045 UTC.

...TROPICAL WAVES...
TROPICAL WAVE IS ALONG THE COAST OF W AFRICA ALONG 17W S OF 22N
MOVING W 10-15 KT. A 1009 MB LOW IS W OF THE WAVE AXIS NEAR
18N19W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 7N-14N BETWEEN
13W-21W.

TROPICAL WAVE EXTENDS FROM 19N53W TO 13N51W TO 8N46W MOVING W 20
KT. WAVE EXHIBITS WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE ALONG THE
WAVE AXIS
AS OBSERVED ON SATELLITE IMAGERY AND SATELLITE DERIVED
WINDS. A LARGE AREA OF DRY AIR AND SAHARAN DUST IS E OF THE WAVE
AXIS TO WEST AFRICA.
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS 15N-16N
BETWEEN 50W-52W.

TROPICAL WAVE IN THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN IS ALONG 73W S OF 17N
MOVING W 10 KT. WEAK LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CURVATURE IS OBSERVED
ON SATELLITE IMAGERY
. WAVE REMAINS EMBEDDED WITHIN A BROAD AREA
OF DEEP MOISTURE AS EVIDENT ON SSMI TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY. ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS OVER N COLOMBIA FROM
9N-10N BETWEEN 75W-77W.

TROPICAL WAVE IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE AND SOUTHERN MEXICO
ALONG 92W S OF 22N MOVING W NEAR 20 KT. SCATTERED MODERATE TO
ISOLATED STRONG CONVECTION IS OVER GUATEMALA FROM 15N-18N
BETWEEN 89W-91W. SIMILAR CONVECTION IS OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE
AND SOUTHERN MEXICO FROM 14N-20N BETWEEN 94W-97W.

...ITCZ...
ITCZ AXIS IS ANALYZED ALONG 12N16W 9N30W 9N50W 10N61W. BESIDES
THE CONVECTION MENTIONED IN THE TROPICAL WAVE SECTION...
SCATTERED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 5N-9N BETWEEN 22W-38W.
ISOLATED MODERATE CONVECTION IS FROM 8N-13N BETWEEN 54W-57W.

3063. IKE
ATL ocean....20% on 1.
East PAC.....20% on 1.
Cent PAC.....near 0% on 1.
West PAC.....nothing.
Indian Ocean.nothing.
20% on 1 will probably be a fish....hope so anyway.
3065. IKE
Quoting StormSurgeon:
20% on 1 will probably be a fish....hope so anyway.


It's over land now. Tracking the remains of TD5 over SW Georgia.
3066. WxLogic
Areas to watch:



In red we have of course ex-TD5.

In yellow we have a persistent 500MB pocket of higher vorticity E of FL (just like ex-TD5 used to be) and under almost the same atmospheric conditions. There's a potential for brief organization with this disturbance.
3067. Vero1
Makes me a little nervous that same guy predicting less active season. Lol

August 13, 2010
As we enter the heart of hurricane season, it's dead quiet out there


Link
Quoting Gearsts:
Olga in 07


Had to look that one up. I did not remember it.
Quoting IKE:


It's over land now. Tracking the remains of TD5 over SW Georgia.


That thing just won't go away will it....

Off topic, but I wish they's hurry up and open the Gulf waters for commercial fishing, shrimping and oystering. I'm ready to make some gumbo without paying 100 bucks for imported junk. The waters off D. Island are as clean as a whistle.
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Been reading about the long range models. I found an interesting article along those lines. And I didn't even read the GW part. But the first part reminds me of...Famous Last Words. :) Houston Chronical Link


sciguy
| Hurricane Central
SciGuy
A science blog with Eric Berger

September 04, 2008
Why Ike's less likely to visit the Gulf.


Hurricane Ike remains an incredibly dangerous cyclone this morning with 145 mph winds, although the storm should encounter some wind shear in a day or two and weaken moderately.

However, by the time it reaches the vicinity of the Bahamas in five days' time and approaches Florida, it should re-strengthen to near category 4 status.

The latest models, shown below, portray three potential scenarios for Ike, two of which are disastrous for the United States.



The scenarios include:

1. South Florida strike: I spoke with a hurricane scientist I know in Miami yesterday and he was quite concerned about this possibility. The models certainly support this, and the heat potential of the waters near the Bahamas and Florida is quite high enough to support a major hurricane.

2. Re-Curve into the Atlantic: The GFS model has been advertising this solution for a couple of days now. The Bahamas would still likely get hammered, but the mainland United States would be spared. This scenario is most consistent with the climatology outlined below.

3. Northeast U.S. Coast: As bad as a strike on Miami would be, a strike on New York is worse. (How do you evacuate 4 million people from New York?). A major hurricane striking New York remains a low threat, high consequence scenario, even with Ike. But the climatology below suggests its possible, and some models have been hinting at such a scenario.

The official forecast track allows for all of the possibilities above.

What about the Gulf of Mexico? It's still entirely possible Ike could reach the Gulf, but such an eventuality seems historically unlikely at this time. Between 1900 and 2006, 95 storms have passed within 150 nautical miles of its present location.

Of the 95 storms, only seven have struck the United States. Just one, Hurricane Four of the 1901 Atlantic season, reached the Gulf of Mexico. It hit Grand Isle, Louisiana on Aug. 14, producing levee breaches which flooded New Orleans.





Great post! A perfect reminder for everyone, especially the model worshipers, of how little we know and how unpredictable the weather still is. Hurricane season is no time to be smug with your science. By the way, I'm finishing up reading "Issac's Storm" by Eric Larson. It's a very good account of the great 1900 storm that hit Galveston. I highly recommend it!
3072. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Makes me a little nervous that same guy predicting less active season. Lol

August 13, 2010
As we enter the heart of hurricane season, it's dead quiet out there


Link


That reads like an honest..straight-forward synopsis of what was called for..what has happened up til now...and what could happen the remainder of the season.
.
3074. Gearsts
Quoting LoneStarWeather:

Great post! A perfect reminder for everyone, especially the model worshipers, of how little we know and how unpredictable the weather still is. Hurricane season is no time to be smug with your science. By the way, I'm finishing up reading "Issac's Storm" by Eric Larson. It's a very good account of the great 1900 storm that hit Galveston. I highly recommend it!


Thanks. Been wanting to read that. I was thinking that we still have so much to learn too.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Funny how now there model support for 4 systems over the next few weeks.


I know! The downcasting will come to a halt its just a matter of time.....
Quoting Gearsts:


??
3079. Gearsts
Olga in 07
Quoting CybrTeddy:



What's left of the COC isn't far from IKE.
Quoting IKE:


That reads like an honest..straight-forward synopsis of what was called for..what has happened up til now...and what could happen the remainder of the season.


Yes. He could be right. But he was going by what had happened up til his article about Ike (climatology) too. We'll see in the end. Hope he's right. I love my A/C too. Lol. That's why I run. :D
Quoting FLWeatherFreak91:
For the people posting their storm experiences: What are your criteria for determining which storms you've been through? Tropical storm winds? Damage? Proximity to center?

I guess for me it would b walking outside in charlys eye after 150mph winds took half the roof
3083. msphar
Speaking of time, there are 4 weeks to the climatological center point, and 15.5 weeks to the end of November. We have 108 days left till Nov 30th. That converts to about 36 more waves.
Quoting StormSurgeon:


??


It began as a subtropical storm north of Puerto Rico on December 10. After hitting the Dominican Republic it transitioned to a tropical storm and exited Hispaniola. It was the deadliest post season storm killing 40 people (this is aaccording to Wikipedia)
Quoting wayne0224:
I guess for me it would b walking outside in charlys eye after 150mph winds took half the roof


For me it's no power and the cranking of a chainsaw......and generator
Quoting heretolearninPR:


It began as a subtropical storm north of Puerto Rico on December 10. After hitting the Dominican Republic it transitioned to a tropical storm and exited Hispaniola. It was the deadliest post season storm killing 40 people (this is aaccording to Wikipedia)


Thanks, that what I get for jumping blindly in to the blog.
3087. IKE
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Thanks. Been wanting to read that. I was thinking that we still have so much to learn too.
3089. IKE
Speed up the loop...you can kind of see a spin over SW Georgia...Link

Quoting homelesswanderer:


Thanks. Been wanting to read that. I was thinking that we still have so much to learn too.
Mentioned this before,,but after Issacs Storm,,read Infinite Monster,,,,,now available at Barnes and Nobel, at least in the Bay Area,,,!
wow was anyone expecting this to happen


Quoting msphar:
Speaking of time, there are 4 weeks to the climatological center point, and 15.5 weeks to the end of November. We have 108 days left till Nov 30th. That converts to about 36 more waves.


True. And since about 60% of all TCs are birthed from TWs, if all those waves turn into something, we could end up with 50 more TCs!!!

Yes, I'm kidding...but I still feel the final numbers are going to be higher than many are calling for...
Quoting IKE:
Speed up the loop...you can kind of see a spin over SW Georgia...Link



Looks to me like it's on top of you about to slip in to the Gulf...
Forgive my lack of knowledge, but when you have a situation like Ex TD5, and it becomes a risk again over water, is it renumbered as an invest or is that not needed as the resources are already available because it was previously assigned?

Basically what is the technical name for it now according to NOAA? Like on the ftp site.

I notice we have nothing on this weather on the Tropical page of WU where we normally have WU model runs displayed, ect. All I see is invest90 in the epac.
Quoting heretolearninPR:
Storms I have been through

1996 Hurricane Bertha
1996 Hurricane Hortense
1998 Hurricane Georges
2004 Tropical storm Jeanne

Not too many. I moved to Puerto Rico in 1996 and thought that was a typical year. We have been blessed since Georges, although Jeanne knocked out water and power for a week. It was a very strong tropical storm when it hit us.


Storms/hurricanes I have been through: Hurricanes Hugo, Georges, Hortense, and Bertha; Tropical Storm Jeanne. All were bad in one way or another, especially with the lack of power and water for weeks.
3098. Gearsts
Where's the wave in africa that everyone is watching?
Quoting beeleeva:
Mentioned this before,,but after Issacs Storm,,read Infinite Monster,,,,,now available at Barnes and Nobel, at least in the Bay Area,,,!


Thanks for the tip. Haven't used my Mother's Day Booksamillion gift card yet. Maybe they'll have them. I'll look at BN too. :)
3100. oakland
Quoting StormSurgeon:


For me it's no power and the cranking of a chainsaw......and generator


Me too- especially no power! When it's out for more than a few days, ie-Andrew (2 weeks), Wilma (1 week), it really wears a person down.
3101. IKE
Quoting Gearsts:
Where's the wave in africa that everyone is watching?


Looks like it dried up...

Quoting homelesswanderer:


Thanks for the tip. Haven't used my Mother's Day Booksamillion gift card yet. Maybe they'll have them. I'll look at BN too. :)
Just saw it yesterday at the one at Bay Area Blvd....Had lots of copies on a table just inside the door.....
Quoting Gearsts:
Where's the wave in africa that everyone is watching?


The one with the vigorous MLC at about 10W. Remember, it's not going to look too impressive as its over land but once it emerges things will get interesting.
3104. Gearsts
Quoting IKE:


Looks like it dried up...

poor wave
Quoting wayne0224:
I guess for me it would b walking outside in charlys eye after 150mph winds took half the roof


For me it would being without power and water for at least a week as a result of strong winds/floods.
Quoting StormSurgeon:


That thing just won't go away will it....

Off topic, but I wish they's hurry up and open the Gulf waters for commercial fishing, shrimping and oystering. I'm ready to make some gumbo without paying 100 bucks for imported junk. The waters off D. Island are as clean as a whistle.


Morning all

No offense SS...But I'm not eating anything out of the Gulf for a few years...They can open it all they want, I'm not convinced that a month after the oil stopped flowing that everything is "safe"
hey Gearsts the wave that we are still watching is still there but it is abit under the blues and it needs to get it self over water

here this is a sat that you can see it better look closely on the west coast you can see something of a well define spin but is in need of convection



Link
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:
Forgive my lack of knowledge, but when you have a situation like Ex TD5, and it becomes a risk again over water, is it renumbered as an invest or is that not needed as the resources are already available because it was previously assigned?

Basically what is the technical name for it now according to NOAA? Like on the ftp site.

I notice we have nothing on this weather on the Tropical page of WU where we normally have WU model runs displayed, ect. All I see is invest90 in the epac.


In the ATCF system, all storms are an invest which are then classified according to their highest level of tc development. Currently xTD05 is designated as:
08/15/2010 07:06AM 3,778 invest_al052010.invest
With the level of development as a low
Quoting StormW:


I wouldn't be so sure about that.
come on now, you are gonna burst our future NHC director's bubble :)
3110. Hhunter
from crown weather

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Sunday, August 15, 2010 620 am EDT/520 am CDT

Would you like this tropical weather discussion e-mailed to you each day? If so, just send an e-mail to: crownweatherservices-subscribe@yahoogroups.com and you will be added to our mailing list.

Discussion
Ex-Tropical Depression #5:
Of most importance this morning is Ex-Tropical Depression #5 which is located over southeastern Alabama this morning. This system is forecast to track to the south and reach the coastal portions of the Florida Panhandle by later today and then reach the waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico late tonight or Monday morning. The latest model guidance is more aggressive with strengthening over the northern Gulf of Mexico because the guidance is now forecasting a further south course which would create some additional extra time over the waters of the northern Gulf of Mexico. The guidance this morning ranges from a 60 to 70 mph tropical storm (GFS and NAM model) to a low end Category 1 hurricane (Canadian model) to a tropical depression or a borderline tropical storm (European model).

I agree with the idea that Ex-Tropical Depression #5 will make it into the northern Gulf of Mexico waters just south of the western Florida Panhandle during the predawn hours of Monday morning. After that, I believe that you will see this system reacquire tropical depression status and likely tropical storm status during Monday and Monday night as it tracks westward across the northern Gulf of Mexico waters. I think the ultimate track will lie somewhere between the GFS model which brings into the central Louisiana coast on Tuesday afternoon and Tuesday night and the NAM model which brings it onshore on the upper Texas coast on Wednesday morning. So, I am going to go with a track that takes it westward just south of the Louisiana coast during Tuesday and then inland into southwestern Louisiana during Tuesday night.

As for strength based on my thinking for a forecast track: I think we are looking at something that is somewhat stronger than what I was thinking yesterday. At this point, I am going with strengthening during the day Tuesday to a 50 to 70 mph tropical storm when it comes ashore in southwestern Louisiana on Tuesday night.

Heavy rain with the threat for flooding will continue for at least the next 3 days across the northern Gulf coast. Additional rainfall totals across coastal southeast Louisiana, coastal Mississippi, coastal Alabama and the extreme western Florida Panhandle are expected to exceed 5 more inches. This is on top of the heavy rainfall that has already accumulated across this area. So, flooding is a significant concern and those of you in this area should monitor local flood watches and warnings and take appropriate action if necessary.

All interests along the Louisiana coast, the Mississippi coast and the Alabama coast should keep close tabs on this system. Needless to say, I will be monitoring Ex-Tropical Depression 5 very closely and will keep you all updated.

Eastern Atlantic Development This Week Through Next Week With Up To Two To Three Named Storms Possible:
Looking at the long range prospects. If the model guidance is to be believed, we are looking at a very busy 10 to 15 days across the Atlantic Basin with up to 3 additional tropical cyclones forecast. The latest GFS model is forecasting the following: A major hurricane to track out into the open Atlantic in about 8 to 10 days. A second major hurricane to impact the northern Leeward Islands around August 27th and then impact the Bahamas and threaten Florida around August 30th. The GFS model is also forecasting a third tropical cyclone to form around August 25th and impact the Windward Islands and Barbados around August 30th.

As for the other model guidance, the latest European model is forecasting tropical cyclone formation in the eastern Atlantic around August 19th with a second tropical cyclone forming in the far eastern Atlantic around August 24th. Looking at the setup based on the European model, I would suspect that the first tropical cyclone would track out into the open Atlantic, however, the second tropical cyclone forecast would need to be really monitored closely.

So, here are my thoughts: I strongly believe that in just 7 to 10 days from now, we will be tracking and monitoring multiple tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Things are anticipated to get very busy by late this week right through at least the end of the month. Personally, I wouldn’t concentrate on exact storm forecast details, but instead look at the overall pattern forecast to setup and the idea of at least two tropical cyclones forming in the eastern Atlantic seems quite possible. I also wanted to note that the European model ensemble guidance continues to be further south and west with the first tropical cyclone and it’s 10 day forecast is showing a strong ridge of high pressure across much of the Atlantic and this could mean we could see the first system track further west than what is currently being forecast by the model guidance.

So, needless to say, I will be watching this closely over the coming days and probably weeks and will keep you all updated on the latest.

The next tropical weather discussion will be issued by 7 am EDT/6 am CDT Monday morning
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


In the ATCF system, all storms are an invest which are then classified according to their highest level of tc development. Currently xTD05 is designated as:
08/15/2010 07:06AM 3,778 invest_al052010.invest
With the level of development as a low


Thank you for the explanation. Should I assume unless it reached TD status, that Wu site will not have it on the Tropical page?
Beautiful morning over the Atlantic as seen by the GV forward camera.


Nevertheless the odds of this season producing substantially more than normal hurricane activity are clearly falling, and that's not a bad thing at all.
Link

While the odds of more then a normal activity might be less, the blogger does not touch really where the storms may go based on the NAO and while yes the number may not be excessive where the storms do go could cancel out the amount of storms.
Quoting JBirdFireMedic:


Thank you for the explanation. Should I assume unless it reached TD status, that Wu site will not have it on the Tropical page?


Not sure about that, I've never been able to figure out how different websites stop and then resume displaying ATCF data.
Quoting Gearsts:
poor wave


Its over land, a lot of times they don't look impressive but PGI30L has a potent MLC. That's all that matters once it reaches the water.
Quoting Hhunter:
from crown weather

Tropical Weather Discussion
Issued: Sunday, August 15, 2010 620 am EDT/520 am CDT

Eastern Atlantic Development This Week Through Next Week With Up To Two To Three Named Storms Possible:
Looking at the long range prospects. If the model guidance is to be believed, we are looking at a very busy 10 to 15 days across the Atlantic Basin with up to 3 additional tropical cyclones forecast....I strongly believe that in just 7 to 10 days from now, we will be tracking and monitoring multiple tropical cyclones in the Atlantic Basin. Things are anticipated to get very busy by late this week right through at least the end of the month.


Interesting, to say the least...and pretty much in parallel with my own thoughts...


you can definetly see the spin in this loop


HMMMM? Lol. I'm just sayin. :)
3121. IKE
SHIPS has TD5 at 31.8N and 84.9W. Keeps it over land throughout the run...Link
Here's the story for today. The ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS all redevelop TD5 and develop PGI30L which is currently over Africa. It looks pretty good that we might see 2 storms this week. Very good consistency and tight model support.
Quoting DestinJeff:
I bet I know when things will start to pop in the Atlantic.

Next week.


Same as the sign in the local bar, "Free beer tomorrow"
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Its over land, a lot of times they don't look impressive but PGI30L has a potent MLC. That's all that matters once it reaches the water.
but keep in mind it LOOKED impressive through yesterday...
Not syaing this will happen, but go to nhc homepage and pull up seasonal archive.Check out the detailed discussion of hurricane alicia.See what it came from where it started and how strong it got.Not saying by any means i hink this will happen with td5, but the possibility in the northern gulf in august with favorable conditions shows you what can happen.
3126. IKE
Quoting hunkerdown:
but keep in mind it LOOKED impressive through yesterday...


Yes it did...it was put on this blog a few times yesterday when it was.
Quoting hunkerdown:
but keep in mind it LOOKED impressive through yesterday...


Keep in mind, all models develop this into a potent system. All that matters is what happens when its over water.
The vigorous tropial wave over africa has lossed some of its convection and shower and thunderstorm activity.... the MLC is much more noticable on a satilite loop. Once it emerges of the coast of Africa tommorrow night it will likely gain that back.
Just telling it the way I see it.
Quoting IKE:


Yes it did...it was put on this blog a few times yesterday when it was.
you even had "the crew" calling for invest over land and "has a TD ever been classified over land"...I don't see this rolling off naked and "unpoofing" with full blown convection just cause it entered open water.
The circulation of PGI-30L is still there.

Thanks again nrtiwlnvragn


MesAmis ( Good Morning )
Does anyone can see how for S is that xtd5 is expected to drift into GOMEX before going W?
3136. 1965
Ex td5 has good southward momentum this am. I'm increasingly confident this system will move far enough off shore to be a problem.

SHIPS makes this thing a cane if it stays off shore through Wednesday.

AL 05 2010081512 BEST 0 318N 849W 20 1013 LO
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Keep in mind, all models develop this into a potent system. All that matters is what happens when its over water.
models have developed all kinds of crap all the time. WAY TOO MANY people on here live by the models...use what god gave you sometimes, your eyes and brain...trust me, even if you are a total novice you will see a storm spinning up without a model.
Quoting hunkerdown:
you even had "the crew" calling for invest over land and "has a TD ever been classified over land"...I don't see this rolling off naked and "unpoofing" with full blown convection just cause it entered open water.


actually a lot of times that is exactly what happens. I can name quite a few tropical cyclones that looked very unimpressive convection wise over Africa then suddenly as they crossed into the Atlantic and felt those warm SST's and other factors they gain convection over their circulation. what to me matters is if the circulation is strong, PGI30L has a pretty potent MLC.

good morning Ike, nrt, Destin, and everyone else.
Quoting DestinJeff:


I don't know. We do have strong blogger consistency over the past 24 hours or so. I mean, this thing looks better now than TD2 ever did in its entire life!

NHC might need to put some warnings up along the Gulf Coast. Some people have trash day on Monday, and their cans could get blown over after they get emptied if the models verify!
I was actually talking about the wave over Africa...
Quoting donna1960ruled:


It looked very impressive yesterday. Today it is hard to even discern. But I want to be careful in downplaying it, as that could be a violation of community standards.

take a look at a saltilite loop of Africa. you can see a potent MLC over our wave
http://www.sat24.com/Region.aspx?country=afwa&sat=ir&type=loop
3147. Patrap
Latest Vorticity

this is pathetic, now we are hyping a "potent MLC" over land destined and poised for development (oh, should I add, cause the models are in good agreement and say so).
Quoting StormJunkie:


Morning all

No offense SS...But I'm not eating anything out of the Gulf for a few years...They can open it all they want, I'm not convinced that a month after the oil stopped flowing that everything is "safe"


I can assure you that it is very safe and certainly safer that the chinese stuff. We take pride in our seafood. Also, what most people don't realize is that not all of the fishing areas were affected. The biggest impact was on the oyster beds - we even have to get ours from other parts of the country.
Quoting Patrap:
Atlantic Low Cloud Product,LARGE


Good Morning Patrap
Channel 6 news saying xtd5 expecting to give you and me some more rain as it does a loop around us Monday & Tuesday
oh, don;t get me wrong, I am not saying it has no chance or that it wont, but its not like its imminent or 100% guaranteed.
while true models can be totally off (claudette, for example) a lot of times when they show heavy consistency and show a strong system usually things develop. That being said it is always good to be on the lookout for factors the models might not take into account on why it could/couldn't develop.
3154. IKE
You can see TD5 spinning where the coordinates were for it...Link
3155. Patrap
More for us...

And thanks for supporting the Folks in the Industry.

pfffth.
All Seafood is inspected..as the crap that comes down the River is far worse than anything seen in the GOM.

Google Dead Zone.


Your in College now.

Nitrates to be specific. The GOM Seafood will never be scrutinized as close as it has been the last months.

Have you heard of a single case?

No.
Quoting HurricaneKyle:
while true models can be totally off (claudette, for example) a lot of times when they show heavy consistency and show a strong system usually things develop. That being said it is always good to be on the lookout for factors the models might not take into account on why it could/couldn't develop.
for instance, in the case of this "MLC". you can with almost 100% certainty throw out the UKMET and NOGAPS.
3158. Patrap
Quoting blsealevel:


Good Morning Patrap
Channel 6 news saying xtd5 expecting to give you and me some more rain as it does a loop around us Monday & Tuesday


Morn' Homeie

Mo rain isnt needed.
October iz..

Coolth is what we need.

Im sicka da summa,as dey sey.
Quoting hunkerdown:
for instance, in the case of this "MLC". you can with almost 100% certainty throw out the UKMET and NOGAPS.


How so? I haven't looked at the UKMET but the NOGAPS looks pretty on pair with the ECMWF, CMC, and GFS.
3160. Patrap
Good point hunker and Jeff.And as far as the cw guys discussion.I would take that with a grain of salt.If every system developed as he predicted we would have 20 by now lol.Also those waves on the arfican cont. are constantly harped about by mostly young kids who live where? surprise the east coast of Florida.Now could this season still be troublesome? Why of course check out the 1983 hurr alicia where it started and how storng it got.But if i remember John Hope right the middle of sept shuts down the cape systems.And the odds of one making the track across is slim due the fronts starting to come down. So maybe it will be a season of home brew for the us.But dont worry many blogger will continue to post the MJO chart. Personally i think these charts and models have lost thier mojo.
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


How so? I haven't looked at the UKMET but the NOGAPS looks pretty on pair with the ECMWF, CMC, and GFS.
both the UKMET and NOGAPS are initialized with a false/made up/"synthetic" initialization. In other words, in a case where there is no real TC to use for initialization purposes, made up information is inputted into the model to initialize it.
no more t.storm everywhere the dry air get to it i will die out soon.
3164. Patrap
I'm cooking up some Freedom Fries fo bkfst Ike.

Navy Operational Global Atmospheric Prediction System (NOGAPS)

The NOGAPS model is run out to 180 hours four times a day (0000 UTC, 0600 UTC, 1200 UTC, 1800 UTC). Some of its operational specifications are highlighted in Table 2. The hybrid sigma-pressure vertical coordinate configuration used by the NOGAPS results in approximately six terrain-following sigma levels below 850-mb and the remaining 24 levels occurring above 850-mb at near-pressure surfaces. Further information about the NOGAPS can be found on the UCAR/MetEd Individual NWP Model Matrix webpage:

http://www.meted.ucar.edu/nwp/pcu2

The NOGAPS model inserts an artificial TC vortex into its initial fields to more accurately depict the current intensity and location of TCs. The artificial vortex is created by adding synthetic ("bogus") data points to the observational data which are then incorporated during the data assimilation process. Like other global models, the NOGAPS model cannot provide very skillful intensity forecasts but can provide skillful track forecasts.

United Kingdom Meteorological Office (UKMET) Model

The UKMET model is run twice daily at 0000 UTC and 1200 UTC producing forecasts out to 144 hours. Intermediate runs initialized around the 0600 UTC and 1800 UTC data cycles are run at approximately 1300 UTC and 0100 UTC, but only produce forecasts to 48 hours. Table 2 provides the current resolution and operational specifications of the UKMET. Unlike the other models noted in Table 2, the UKMET attempts to explicitly calculate the vertical accelerations in the atmosphere rather than rely on the hydrostatic primitive equations.

Like the NOGAPS, the UKMET inserts a synthetic TC vortex into its initial fields based on the current intensity and position of the TC. The UKMET typically provides useful TC track forecasts but has limited ability to produce skillful intensity forecasts.
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
no more t.storm everywhere the dry air get to it i will die out soon.
*insert emoticon rolling on the floor in hysterics*
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
no more t.storm everywhere the dry air get to it i will die out soon.

srry to tell you the dry air and sal is way north of it and forcast to stay that way.
3168. Patrap
Not sure if this has been mentioned yet; but seems they ran the GFDL on 05 again...
hpc

MEANWHILE...CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH OUR DEPICTION OF THE
REMAINS OF TD FIVE FORECAST NEAR THE GULF COAST DURING THE SHORT
RANGE BEFORE WEAKENING OVER THE LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF THE MEDIUM RANGE. THIS SYSTEM HAS POTENTIAL TO FOCUS SOME
HEAVY DOWNPOURS LOCALLY...BUT OUR COMPROMISE GUIDANCE TRACK
REMAINS AT ODDS WITH THE 00 UTC GFS THAT BRINGS THE SYSTEM MUCH
FARTHER NEWD AND THE 00 UTC ECMWF/06 UTC DGEX ARE MUCH FARTHER
SWWD INTO TX.

OVERALL...HPC DAYS 3-4 WED-THU PROGS WERE PRIMARILY DERIVED FROM A
3-WAY BLEND OF THE 00 UTC ECMWF/CANADIAN/GFS IN LIGHT OF
PREFERENCES AT THE END OF THE SHORT RANGE PERIOD ACROSS THE NRN
TIER AND AS PER ANNOYING EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE DIFFERENCES AND
CONTINUITY CONCERNS. DAYS 5-7 FRI-SUN USE AN ADJUSTED BLEND OF
00Z GFS ENSEMBLE MEAN AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN ALONG WITH THE 00Z
ECMWF TO ADD SOME DETAIL AMID GROWING SOLUTION SPREAD AT LONGER
TIME FRAMES.

RAUSCH/SCHICHTEL
3171. Patrap
4 days ago..



Current



http://www.srh.noaa.gov/images/fxc/lix/graphicast/image1.gif
Quoting StormJunkie:
Not sure if this has been mentioned yet; but seems they ran the GFDL on 05 again...


I believe it was as they also ran the HWRF on it too.
3176. Patrap
308
fxus64 klix 151027
afdlix


Area forecast discussion
National Weather Service New Orleans la
527 am CDT sun Aug 15 2010


Synopsis...
surface low...the remnants from Tropical Depression Five...remains
situated near Montgomery Alabama. This is a bit north of where the
models show the system. In the middle/upper levels...a very moist/
maritime high pressure ridge extends from near Louisiana to
Alabama with precipitable water/pwats/ around 2.5 inches across
the breadth of the ridge. This is a very favorable pattern for
tropical cyclone development...minus a large water body at the
surface of course.


&&


Short term...
the models remain remarkably consistent showing the surface low
over Alabama moving south across the western Florida Panhandle
later today and then into the northern Gulf of Mexico waters to
the south tonight. This low looks like it should be vertically
stacked from the surface into the middle levels with an upper high
center just off to the northwest of the system. The larger scale
high and low pressure systems will be moving such that the col or
weakness will take the low west towards the southeast or south
central Louisiana coast on Tuesday. The big question of
course...is will this low develop/strengthen into a tropical
depression or storm. The National Hurricane Center is indicating a
low/20 percent chance of tropical cyclone development during the
next 48 hours as of 100 am CDT this morning. I am expecting to see
this chance of development get higher through the day today.


Given the model consistency...the cluster of tracks over water
give the low plenty of time over the warm waters of the north Gulf
of Mexico to attain tropical characteristics. The GFS remains the
strongest model showing tropical storm/gale force winds around 50
knots to the east of the low center. The European model (ecmwf)...which had been
advertising fairly weak solutions...is now showing a pressure
gradient on the east side of the low that could easily support
35 knots of wind. Given the model consistency...have raised the
winds in the grids to near 30 knots over the Gulf coastal waters
Monday night and Tuesday...and this may have to be raised again
later today. Refer to the marine section below for additional
details.


The greatest impact from this system is likely to be very heavy
rainfall with excessive amounts likely near the southeast
Louisiana coast...and possibly at least as far inland as the
Mississippi Gulf Coast and the Interstate 10 corridor. This is
very troublesome given many areas are already saturated from the
last week or so of rains. A Flash Flood Watch will likely be
necessary later today for at least coastal sections.


Winds are expected to bring tides up to at least 2 feet above
normal as the low nears the coast...but that could end up being
higher depending on the strength of the low. The astronomical
tidal ranges will be increasing during the Monday through
Wednesday period with ranges increasing to around 2 feet. A
coastal Flood Watch will likely be necessary if tropical storm
watches or warnings are not issued. 22/dew point


Long term...
the low may stall to our west...somewhere in western Louisiana or
southeast Texas by the Wednesday through Thursday time period.
Will continue to have higher than normal chances of showers and
thunderstorms through the period. Rain chances should lower closer
to normal by late in the week as the low dissipates. 22/dew point
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
no more t.storm everywhere the dry air get to it i will die out soon.


orly?
convection is increasing over x5 but i still dont expect even a tropical depression from this just copious amounts of rain which we dont need..so folks sit back a nd watch a good football game or movie ...the tropics are clear until at least aug25th..
Quoting katrinakat5:
convection is increasing over x5 but i still dont expect even a tropical depression from this just copious amounts of rain which we dont need..so folks sit back a nd watch a good football game or movie ...the tropics are clear until at least aug25th..


orly?
Quoting NCHurricane2009:


Hugo in 1989 (was a toddler and don't remember it, my family was living in the Appalachians in NC and told me stories about it).

Fran in 1996 (was a 3rd grader, scared the crap out of me 'cause I didn't know much about hurricanes or weather back then. My family was living in Raleigh NC when the eye hit us directly as a cat. 1)

That's really it, just two. Gotten lucky here in Raleigh since Fran. Bonnie 1998, Dennis 1999, Floyd 1999, Isabel 2003, Charley 2004, Ophelia 2005, Ernesto 2006, and Hanna 2008 as the most severe weather with those past just to the east of us.

Don't think people in Charleston would classify Hugo as a toddler.???
Tropics are about to blow folks!!! Blow up :P
TD5 regenerating, 2 possible Cape Verde Storms, helloooo 2010!
3184. Patrap

Hugo in 1989 (was a toddler and don't remember it, my family was living in the Appalachians in NC and told me stories about it).


He mentions, "he" was a toddler.

3187. Patrap
We and da wife Married in Aug 90,,and Honeymooned in Boone,N. Carolina and I was amazed at the deforestation so far inland from Hugo.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
Here's the story for today. The ECMWF, GFS, CMC, and NOGAPS all redevelop TD5 and develop PGI30L which is currently over Africa. It looks pretty good that we might see 2 storms this week. Very good consistency and tight model support.
fish storms..
Morning Chsnanny

Yeah, don't think he really knows what he's talking about...Hugo was a beast. While Fran was a nasty storm...It was no where near what Hugo was. That was a night I'll never forget for sure. Were you in Summerville too?

Thanks for the correction Pat...That makes more sense now.
Quoting reedzone:
Tropics are about to blow folks!!! Blow up :P
TD5 regenerating, 2 possible Cape Verde Storms, helloooo 2010!
2 possible Cape Verde Storms both fish storms going out to sea
Quoting jasoncoolman2010xx:
fish storms..


you mean to say a system in the gulf can be a fish storm? Please do tell.
My count remains unchanged since May, 15-18 storms, 9 or 10 Hurricanes, 5 majors.
As it stands now..
3-1-1

August forecast - 5 storms (including Colin)
September - 5-7
October - 2
November - 1 or 2
December - 1
Good Morning!
The models are flipping from USA to fish, sorry jason, it don't work that way. We need more days to observe. I have a good feeling if the first one recurves, the next one misses the trough and heads to the USA.
Quoting reedzone:
Tropics are about to blow folks!!! Blow up :P
TD5 regenerating, 2 possible Cape Verde Storms, helloooo 2010!

yes sir look at the GFS

On the lastest run it develops 3 tropical cyclones by August 27
3198. Patrap
Try a Bowl of "Fish Wish",..,

Or maybe "Invest Flake's",with Marshmallow's..!

From Kellog's
if anyone can make a call on fish/no fish for a system over 10 days out please my family wants to win the lotto and could use your help.
Quoting HurricaneKyle:


you mean to say a system in the gulf can be a fish storm? Please do tell.
i was only talking about the 2 possible Cape Verde Storms there will both be fish storms.
3202. Patrap
3194. WeatherNerdPR

Morn' to wnPR
Quoting StormJunkie:


Morning all

No offense SS...But I'm not eating anything out of the Gulf for a few years...They can open it all they want, I'm not convinced that a month after the oil stopped flowing that everything is "safe"


Would you like to back that up with at least one fact? Or is it the fear on the unknown?
lol reed did you dream that last night x5 wont even get up to tropical depression strength...you should really quit this nonsense..
Quoting Patrap:


Bizarre
3209. Patrap


Updated yesterday at 10:37 PM
Quoting reedzone:
My count remains unchanged since May, 15-18 storms, 9 or 10 Hurricanes, 5 majors.
As it stands now..
3-1-1

August forecast - 5 storms (including Colin)
September - 5-7
October - 2
November - 1 or 2
December - 1

So you agree with Levi (and me) that Alex was a Major Hurricane? True. Nice forecast.

wind gust for Monday night
Quoting katrinakat5:
lol reed did you dream that last night x5 wont even get up to tropical depression strength...you should really quit this nonsense..


Have to see what psychicmaria says, but this year-- who knows? Maybe Danielle after all?
good morn bloggers so we still chasing ghosts
pilotguy...Can someone back up that it IS safe? Seriously doubt it. There is just no way they have done enough testing to figure out what effects all the oil and chemicals have had. Not to mention, I'm on the E coast and like my local seafood just fine. So I'll stay on the side of caution.
Quoting StormJunkie:


Morning all

No offense SS...But I'm not eating anything out of the Gulf for a few years...They can open it all they want, I'm not convinced that a month after the oil stopped flowing that everything is "safe"


You probably have no idea where the seafood you're eating is coming from, most people don't. Most seafood in restaurants comes from China. Less than 1% of that is inspected. We all know what a bang up job China does on their products and safety. GOM seafood is safer than any in the country right now because it's being inspected so much. Research it....
no dont think so wind shear is 20 knots out there and x5 has lost lots of its convection since hitting la the first time...it will just bring up copious amounts of rain which we really dont need now...tropics will stay quiet through aug 25th..
Quoting StormJunkie:
pilotguy...Can someone back up that it IS safe? Seriously doubt it. There is just no way they have done enough testing to figure out what effects all the oil and chemicals have had. Not to mention, I'm on the E coast and like my local seafood just fine. So I'll stay on the side of caution.


The FDA is—seriously—subjecting suspect Gulf seafood to a 'sniff' test, which is just what it sounds like: a human sits before a vat of seafood, puts his nose up to a piece of meat, and inhales. If it smells like gas, it's rejected, but if not, it's packed and shipped (and, supposedly, cooked and eaten). Thank God for that thorough inspection; Lord knows no known carcinogen lacks a tell-tale aroma... ;-)
Quoting StormJunkie:
Morning Chsnanny

Yeah, don't think he really knows what he's talking about...Hugo was a beast. While Fran was a nasty storm...It was no where near what Hugo was. That was a night I'll never forget for sure. Were you in Summerville too?

Thanks for the correction Pat...That makes more sense now.

Yes I was in Summerville and the eye went over my apartment complex. The next morning we were outside and the bees and wasps were furocious. No power for 3 weeks but had a small generator and made coffee for our neighbors. Never forget the pics of the Ben Sawyer Bridge turned around and in the water. I'm getting a little anxious now but glad I am on WU getting updates. Good morning everyone.
3221. Patrap
Quoting Neapolitan:


The FDA is%u2014seriously%u2014subjecting suspect Gulf seafood to a 'sniff' test, which is just what it sounds like: a human sits before a vat of seafood, puts his nose up to a piece of meat, and inhales. If it smells like gas, it's rejected, but if not, it's packed and shipped (and, supposedly, cooked and eaten). Thank God for that thorough inspection; Lord knows no known carcinogen lacks a tell-tale aroma... ;-)


Thats so false I wont engage it.

LOL


Quoting StormJunkie:
pilotguy...Can someone back up that it IS safe? Seriously doubt it. There is just no way they have done enough testing to figure out what effects all the oil and chemicals have had. Not to mention, I'm on the E coast and like my local seafood just fine. So I'll stay on the side of caution.


I thin NOAA is pretty well respected....

http://www.noaa.gov/100days/Keeping_Seafood_Safe.html
Quoting StormJunkie:
pilotguy...Can someone back up that it IS safe? Seriously doubt it. There is just no way they have done enough testing to figure out what effects all the oil and chemicals have had. Not to mention, I'm on the E coast and like my local seafood just fine. So I'll stay on the side of caution.


Different strokes. That's fine. I just am much happier going through life thinking everything is OK unless there are some facts that there is a problem and like was pointed out already, much of the fishing ground was not affected at all by this spill. After all oil is a natural product of the gulf.
Quoting StormJunkie:
pilotguy...Can someone back up that it IS safe? Seriously doubt it. There is just no way they have done enough testing to figure out what effects all the oil and chemicals have had. Not to mention, I'm on the E coast and like my local seafood just fine. So I'll stay on the side of caution.


How about NOAA ?

http://www.noaa.gov/100days/Keeping_Seafood_Safe.html
Quoting StormJunkie:
pilotguy...Can someone back up that it IS safe? Seriously doubt it. There is just no way they have done enough testing to figure out what effects all the oil and chemicals have had. Not to mention, I'm on the E coast and like my local seafood just fine. So I'll stay on the side of caution.
I can back it up. Boiled 200 lbs of shrimp and 150 lbs of crab for a family reunion yesterday. No hospital visits equals safe. Some people in this place need to get a freekin' grip.
Cancer causing antibiotics found in farm-raised chinese seafood:

Link
Quoting reedzone:
The models are flipping from USA to fish, sorry jason, it don't work that way. We need more days to observe. I have a good feeling if the first one recurves, the next one misses the trough and heads to the USA.
you do know anything past 72 hrs means nothing right there is nothing out there except for 05L THAT MAY REFORM
Quoting LADobeLady:


You probably have no idea where the seafood you're eating is coming from, most people don't. Most seafood in restaurants comes from China. Less than 1% of that is inspected. We all know what a bang up job China does on their products and safety. GOM seafood is safer than any in the country right now because it's being inspected so much. Research it....


Yeah, it's being "inspected"...And that's just fine. As for your assumption that I don't know where my seafood comes from, well now you are just talking with out knowledge...Born and raised in Charleston; I know where to find, buy, and eat local seafood. And I always ask. Once again, No I don't have any data and I'm not going looking for any. That was a lot of oil and chemicals. I'll stay on the side of caution. Thanks.

I understand that it's frustrating for y'all on so many levels; but don't take it out on me because I'm skeptical.
Nice and QUIET :)
NOAA’s Fisheries Service is closely monitoring conditions in the Gulf and working with states and local fisherman to ensure that the seafood that is sold at market and served on America’s dinner plates remains safe. NOAA is working with the FDA, EPA and Gulf states to ensure that fish and shellfish harvested from the Gulf of Mexico are safe to eat and of the same high quality people have come to expect. These measures benefit both consumers and the families who make their living from the Gulf’s bounty.

From the NOAA website.
Quoting charlestonscnanny:

Yes I was in Summerville and the eye went over my apartment complex. The next morning we were outside and the bees and wasps were furocious. No power for 3 weeks but had a small generator and made coffee for our neighbors. Never forget the pics of the Ben Sawyer Bridge turned around and in the water. I'm getting a little anxious now but glad I am on WU getting updates. Good morning everyone.


I was in my house in Quail Arbor. Yes, the bees and wasps were awful! It was the uprooting of all the pines and other trees that brought them out.
Quoting pilotguy1:


Would you like to back that up with at least one fact? Or is it the fear on the unknown?
dispersants break down oil into "droplets", organisms eat/ingest droplets, fish/shellfish (food humans eat) eat/ingets organisms...need I say more. Its called the food chain.
to desperatekat decrasing oh rubs in his face
3237. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
I can back it up. Boiled 200 lbs of shrimp and 150 lbs of crab for a family reunion yesterday. No hospital visits equals safe. Some people in this place need to get a freekin' grip.


U betcha, LOL

Some are like terriers on a Property Line.

Just ridiculous to post without any Link,study,or proof of WTH they think they talikng about.

But enjoy the Filet-o-Fish..

Please drive around.

LOL

Quoting hunkerdown:
what the hell is "orly" ?
Not sure but I think he means oh, really ?
Quoting StormJunkie:


Yeah, it's being "inspected"...And that's just fine. As for your assumption that I don't know where my seafood comes from, well now you are just talking with out knowledge...Born and raised in Charleston; I know where to find, buy, and eat local seafood. And I always ask. Once again, No I don't have any data and I'm not going looking for any. That was a lot of oil and chemicals. I'll stay on the side of caution. Thanks.

I understand that it's frustrating for y'all on so many levels; but don't take it out on me because I'm skeptical.
Skeptical and ignorant are differant.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
good morn bloggers so we still chasing ghosts
potent MLC ghosts now...of course our new resident expert is sending them both out to sea...
Quoting StormJunkie:


Yeah, it's being "inspected"...And that's just fine. As for your assumption that I don't know where my seafood comes from, well now you are just talking with out knowledge...Born and raised in Charleston; I know where to find, buy, and eat local seafood. And I always ask. Once again, No I don't have any data and I'm not going looking for any. That was a lot of oil and chemicals. I'll stay on the side of caution. Thanks.

I understand that it's frustrating for y'all on so many levels; but don't take it out on me because I'm skeptical.


My apologies on assuming you didn't know where your seafood came from, most people don't ask...However, your blanket statements without doing any research hurts a lot of people. It is frustrating, because statements like yours are made out of ignorance.
3242. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
Skeptical and ignorant are differant.


Indeed.

Thus the statement.
3243. Patrap
Hurting people is art form for some.

This I can say with fact.

Easily.

FACEBOOK is a Godsend.

LOL
3244. Patrap
Quoting msgambler:
Skeptical and ignorant are differant.


I'm ignorantly skeptical.
pilotguy...Wasn't the government also "working" to make sure that deep water drilling was safe? I mean, I'm just wondering?

Pat...I'm not even sure what your point was...But the "sniff" test in that video was very impressive, I must admit.
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
Quoting msgambler:
Skeptical and ignorant are differant.


I'm ignorantly skeptical.
LOL
05L/XX/XX
MARK
28.8N/87.9W
Quoting Patrap:


Updated yesterday at 10:37 PM
This guy needs to get his facts right Ivan did not nit NO and the loop he has is all WRONG!!
Quoting StormJunkie:


I was in my house in Quail Arbor. Yes, the bees and wasps were awful! It was the uprooting of all the pines and other trees that brought them out.

It's a small world, as they say. Lived on Red Fox Run, moved a year ago to The Grove on Midland. How many trees did you loose? Did you stay in your home during Hugo? Was 1989 a La Nina or El Nino year?
exTD5 has turned from heading North, and most recently has been heading SouthSouthEast
- Date - - Time - - - - Location
14Aug 06amGMT - 32.5N86.5W
14Aug 12pmGMT - 32.8N85.8W
14Aug 06pmGMT - 33.0N85.5W
15Aug 12amGMT - 32.8N85.5W
15Aug 12amGMT - 32.6N85.3W *
15Aug 06amGMT - 32.5N85.5W
15Aug 06amGMT - 32.3N85.1W *
15Aug 12pmGMT - 31.8N84.9W
* Yep, the NHC has reevaluated&altered 12hours of exTD5's track
Copy&paste 32.0N87.3W, 32.5N86.5W, 32.8N85.8W, 33.0N85.5W-32.8N85.5W, 32.8N85.5W-32.5N85.5W, msy, apf into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee at the old track (ending at 06amGMT)
Then copy&paste 32.0N87.3W, 32.5N86.5W, 32.8N85.8W, 33.0N85.5W-32.6N85.3W, 32.6N85.3W-32.3N85.1W, 32.3N85.1W-31.8N84.9W, msy, apf into the GreatCircleMapper for a looksee at the new track (ending at 12pmGMT)
And when someone asked if I was "ignorant and apathetic," I said, "I don't know and I don't care."
Quoting msgambler:
I can back it up. Boiled 200 lbs of shrimp and 150 lbs of crab for a family reunion yesterday. No hospital visits equals safe. Some people in this place need to get a freekin' grip.


Carcinogens take far longer than a single day to make themselves known. No, thanks; I live on the Gulf, but I won't be eating out of BP's toilet again anytime soon...
StormJunkie
With all that oil and Disp. that was pumped into the waters off the louisiana coast
do you think any of that made it's way in the currents around and up the East coast and would not that also effect your local seafood
did you get sick yet form eating any seafood
that might of made their way from the GOMEX
to your area in the East coast (just wondering)
NEW BLOG!
Quoting Patrap:


U betcha, LOL

Some are like terriers on a Property Line.

Just ridiculous to post without any Link,study,or proof of WTH they think they talikng about.

But enjoy the Filet-o-Fish..

Please drive around.

LOL


LOL, Excellent point with the filet o fish!
3258. K8eCane
StormJunkie
Im with you on the seafood
And there are some ignorant people on here who are just as mean and hateful as the people they accuse
psst.. New Blog.
3261. calder
It reminds me of the US ban on british beef long after the BSE outbreak had been contained and the beef was proven to be safe...
LA, I know it's frustrating and I'm not saying it is "right"...But the truth is, that I am going to refrain from eating it; I'm certain I'm not the only one. I hate it for the local fisherman, trust me. I hate it for y'all as well cause I know it's aggravating, but at some point over the past 20 years I have lost faith in big government and big business.

And again, I just don't think there is anyway that they have collected enough samples from enough locations over a long enough period of time to truly analyze the impacts. When anyone sets out to conduct "testing"; if they are trying to prove a point, there is usually a way to do it.
Quoting Patrap:
3249. gulfbreeze

No Kidding..fascinating, New Blog nit wit.

Jeff Masters.New Entry

LOL
LOL
All the anti-biotics, steroids,pesticides, fertilizers used in and on "land" food are not exactly healthy.
Current Drought Conditions

We'll take the potential xTD5 rain in Texas if NOLA doesn't want it.
Quoting charlestonscnanny:

It's a small world, as they say. Lived on Red Fox Run, moved a year ago to The Grove on Midland. How many trees did you loose? Did you stay in your home during Hugo? Was 1989 a La Nina or El Nino year?


Small world indeed - my folks built our first 'civilian' house on Quail Court - mmmm - must have been spring of '65.
Quoting StormJunkie:
LA, I know it's frustrating and I'm not saying it is "right"...But the truth is, that I am going to refrain from eating it; I'm certain I'm not the only one. I hate it for the local fisherman, trust me. I hate it for y'all as well cause I know it's aggravating, but at some point over the past 20 years I have lost faith in big government and big business.

And again, I just don't think there is anyway that they have collected enough samples from enough locations over a long enough period of time to truly analyze the impacts. When anyone sets out to conduct "testing"; if they are trying to prove a point, there is usually a way to do it.

Thank you, i guess time will tell but today that red fish on the grill is looking better and better lol
3268. IKE
MJO updated today....




What's the matter, Pat? Having a bad day today, are we?
nothing that could possibly hurt you could survive grease at 350 degrees and water boiling at close to 250 degrees,so chill out and enjoy.personly I think the crap china injects is much worse for you


Quoting StormJunkie:
pilotguy...Wasn't the government also "working" to make sure that deep water drilling was safe? I mean, I'm just wondering?

Pat...I'm not even sure what your point was...But the "sniff" test in that video was very impressive, I must admit.


Eek! Stop the world, something might, just might , go wrong.
Quoting LADobeLady:


You probably have no idea where the seafood you're eating is coming from, most people don't. Most seafood in restaurants comes from China. Less than 1% of that is inspected. We all know what a bang up job China does on their products and safety. GOM seafood is safer than any in the country right now because it's being inspected so much. Research it....
wrong, I know where mine comes from, then again I know the people I buy from...and any restaurant I would think of buying fish from, same goes. I would not eat anything from chain restaurants so I have no worries. Now I do have concern, could that salmon I have been eating been coming from the gulf, hmmmm...those bastards saying it is Alaskan have been lying to me all along. When I eat sushi, I should have to worry if the aji, salmon, hamachi, japanese snapper, live scallops, o toro...I think not, but then again, I KNOW the people at the sushi restaurant and where they get their fish from.
new map

The fat lady has not sung yet on killing the well in the GOM

Link

The annulus is now 100% proven to be leaky. BP has been in denial of this all along.

Now that the main part of the hole is filled with cement, any ideas on how to deal with what is really causing the leak, annular flow?

It's controlled but this will be a real mess to finally cap this thing....