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Category 5 Super Typhoon Megi hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 1:23 PM GMT on October 18, 2010

Super Typhoon Megi hit northern Luzon Island in the Philippines near 3:30 UTC this morning as a Category 5 Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 165 mph and a central pressure of 914 mb, as rated by the Navy Research Lab in Monterey. Megi is the strongest Category 5 tropical cyclone to make landfall in the world since August 21 2007, when Hurricane Dean hit Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula with sustained winds of 175 mph and central pressure of 905 mb. We were fortunate to get precise measurements of Megi's intensity yesterday morning thanks to the Hurricane Hunters, who were investigating the typhoon in support of the Interaction of Typhoon and Ocean Project (ITOP), which is studying how the ocean responds to typhoon growth and movement in the Western Pacific Ocean. A C-130 hurricane hunter aircraft penetrated into Megi at 10,000 feet, and found an extraordinarily intense storm. At 9:05am EDT on Sunday (13:09 UTC), the aircraft recorded a central pressure in Megi of 890 mb. This is a phenomenally low pressure, ranking Megi (unofficially) as the 16th strongest tropical cyclone in world history. Only two Atlantic hurricane have been more intense than Megi--Wilma (2005) at 882 mb, and Gilbert (1988) at 888 mb. As they penetrated Megi's eyewall, the Hurricane Hunters performed the standard practice of maintaining a constant "pressure altitude"--the altitude one would expect to find a 700 mb pressure at in an atmosphere at standard conditions. In order to maintain a constant pressure altitude of 10,000 feet, the aircraft was forced to descend 3,000 feet in altitude as it entered Megi's eye. The aircraft entered the eye at 7,000 feet, so the pressure in Megi's eye was what one would normally find at an altitude 3,000 feet higher in the atmosphere. The aircraft recorded a remarkable increase in temperature of 12°C (22°F) as it crossed from the eyewall into the warm eye of Megi. A 12°C rise in eye temperature is extraordinarily rare in a tropical cyclone. Equally noteworthy were Megi's winds. The Hurricane Hunters measured winds at flight level of 220 mph, which normally translates to a surface wind speed of 198 mph, using the standard 10% reduction. The SFMR surface wind measurement instrument recorded surface winds of 186 mph in regions where heavy rain was not contaminating the measurement, but found surface winds of 199 mph in one region of heavy rain. Now, this measurement is considered contaminated by rain, but at very high wind speeds, the contamination effect is less important than at lower hurricane wind speeds, and it is possible than Megi's surface winds reached sustained speeds of 200 mph. However, data from a dropsonde in the eyewall at the time supported giving Megi just 180 mph sustained winds. This is still a ridiculously strong wind, equivalent to a violent EF-4 tornado on the Enhanced Fujita Scale.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Megi taken by NASA's Terra satellite at 2:25 UTC October 18, 2010. Image credit: NASA.

Passage over Luzon Island has weakened Megi to a still-formidable Category 3 typhoon with 125 mph winds, and Megi is pounding the northern portion of the island with torrential rains. We don't have many cities in the Philippines along Megi's path that report weather conditions, so it is difficult to know how strong the storm is. Tuguegarao, to the north of where Megi's eyewall passed, bottomed out at 978 mb pressure, had top sustained winds of 27 mph, and picked up 3.23" of rain thus far from the storm. Megi's rains, which will likely accumulate to more than a foot along a wide swath of northern Luzon (Figure 2), will create dangerous mudslides and life-threatening flash floods. Once Megi crosses Luzon, the storm is expected to re-intensify and hit the Chinese coast between Hainan Island and Hong Kong as a major typhoon on Friday.


Figure 2. Rainfall forecast for the 24 hours ending at 8pm EDT October 18, 2010, based on satellite estimates of Megi's rainfall rate. Rainfall amounts in excess of 12 inches (red colors) were predicted along a wide swath of Luzon Island. Image credit: NOAA/NESDIS.

Caribbean disturbance 99L
Heavy thunderstorm activity has increased over the past day over the southwestern Caribbean off the coasts of Nicaragua and Honduras in association with a tropical disturbance (Invest 99L). Recent satellite imagery does show this disturbance has some rotation, and wind shear is a moderate 10 - 20 knots, which is low enough to allow some slow development. However, the disturbance is headed west-northwest at 5 - 10 mph, and most of the computer models predict the storm will move over Nicaragua on Tuesday, which would not give 99L enough time over water to develop into a tropical depression. NHC is giving 99L a 30% chance of developing into a tropical depression by Tuesday. The storm will bring very heavy rains of 3 - 6" to northern Honduras and northeast Nicaragua over the next two days.

Next update
I'll have an update Tuesday morning.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Quoting pottery:

Sleep Tight!


If your still around Pottery.. go check out #638 in my blog... if your drinking (duh) ... don't have a mouthfull when you read it... Rum is hard to get off the monitor :)
Typhoon "JUAN" has intensified and moved quasi-stationary.

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Juan (Megi) located at 16.5°N 118.7°E or 180 km west northwest of Dagupan City has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gustiness up to 110 knots. The cyclone is reported as quasi-statinary

Signal Warnings
==============

Signal Warning #2 (60-100 kph winds)

Luzon Region
--------------
1.Ilocos Norte
2.Ilocos Sur
3.La Union
4.Pangasinan
5.Zambales

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 km/h winds)

Luzon Region
----------
1.Apayao
2.Abra
3.Kalinga
4.Mt. Province
5.Ifugao
6.Benguet
7.Nueva Vizcaya
8.Nueva Ecija
9.Tarlac
10.Pampanga
11.Bulacan
12.Bataan
13.Cavite
14.Lubang Is.
15.Metro Manila

Additional Information
========================
Public Storm Warning Signals elsewhere are now lowered.

Residents living in low lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against possible flash floods and landslides.

Residents along the coastal areas of Western Luzon are alerted of possible storm surges.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions, monitor the hourly updates and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #48
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
12:00 PM JST October 19 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (945 hPa) located at 16.6N 118.6E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west slowly

Dvorak Intensity:

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.3N 116.6E - 95 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
45 HRS: 18.1N 115.9E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
69 HRS: 19.8N 115.4E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
HKO has updated the forecast for Friday and Saturday to have F7-F8 winds. Now we are forecast to have gale force winds.

Waiting on the 12 noon local time satellite images. Looks like some dry air might be sneaking in from the north.
Little word on 99L. Models do horribly with little or no movement. Best to look at climatology for now, It's Mid-October, the chances of a north movement are great. I think once the models get a grip and 99L starts moving, your status quo mid-October cyclone track will take hold.

Oh well. the 11:30am image from FY-2E had that dry air sneaking in, but the MTSAT-2 image from noon doesn't.

and the Observatory has updated their outlook for the week as well:
Outlook : Winds strengthening gradually in the next few days. Heavy rain and squalls in the latter part of this week.
(almost like someone there is reading this?)
Hmmmmph.

modified my comment and then the image disappeared. Tried to reset the image link and pffft.



noon MTSAT-2 image
Quoting Orcasystems:


If your still around Pottery.. go check out #638 in my blog... if your drinking (duh) ... don't have a mouthfull when you read it... Rum is hard to get off the monitor :)


Man, even 3 mph winds will have effect on that system, specially when it moves backwards..... Uhh!! maybe i considered the wrong post number...
Taiwan's CWB forecast track for Megi



Looks like Macau on thhe other side of Pearl River Delta. Make Steve Wynn cry?
From a few hours ago, NOAA rainbow was showing some decent patches of black within the white (-80C to -85C cloud tops)

This image is a little more current, little under an hour old and should update soon.

518. 7544
99l fireing up at this hour away from land now
Megi/Juan is not wasting any time building that eyewall.
As DaaiTouLaam pointed out, dry air is evident at the current time in the southern quadrant.
Eye is clearly open to the S in this image and the dry air tongue feeding in. May not be there long though.

522. JLPR2
Quoting sunlinepr:


99L means business...
is it just me or is the TWO late to come out
HWRF and GFDL 00Z create major hurricane Rick...



000
ABNT20 KNHC 190530
TWOAT
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BECOME SLIGHTLY BETTER ORGANIZED IN
ASSOCIATION WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE
WESTERN CARIBBEAN SEA JUST TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE HONDURAS-
NICARAGUA BORDER.
SOME SLOW DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS POSSIBLE
AS IT DRIFTS NORTHWESTWARD OR NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD. THERE IS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF THIS DISTURBANCE BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH


I agree except I think it will make a sharp turn NE in the middle of that run if it moves like that. any track, I think FL Cuba Cayman will be in the crosshairs at the end of the run well for this storm atleast
look at 2am two, its not going to go wsw, nw, nnw.....its going more north tonite....
529. JLPR2
keeps getting better.
Quoting alfabob:
From a few hours ago, NOAA rainbow was showing some decent patches of black within the white (-80C to -85C cloud tops)



Black is -90c, if you want proof:







Here are two pictures of the same storm, same time (1930 utc), in the first, it clearly labels each color shift as a change in -10c, therefore, white is obviously -90C and lower (for the color scale of the first picture). In the second pic, you have fewer black dots than there are white sections in the first pic, meaning black dots in the second pic must be colder than the white dots in the first pic. Or in simpler terms, black dots are below -90C.

Also, you can't say the white dots on the rainbow loop equal -90C, because there is more white in the second pic than the first. So white on the rainbow loop probably represents roughly (-88c)-(-90c), while black represents <(-90c).



Also, if you were judging based on the temp scale, which shows up on some of the rainbow loops, as seen here:






Do NOT use it, it is wrong, on both sides of the scale. It isn't cold enough beyond -20. And before 20, it is too high in temperature. Basically, it's only accurate from -20c to 20c
They will probably wait until it's ts before they call it a depression so they can give Paula a run for the money.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #49
TYPHOON MEGI (T1013)
15:00 PM JST October 19 2010
=================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In South China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Megi (945 hPa) located at 16.7N 118.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as almost stationary

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
100 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
300 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
200 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================
24 HRS: 17.6N 116.8E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
48 HRS: 18.7N 116.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
72 HRS: 20.6N 116.5E - 100 knots (CAT 4/Strong Typhoon)
Megi wants to be at intense typhoon category (JMA/Category 5) again, it seems.
Although 99L doesn't look to impressive on BP front, it's trying though.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Megi wants to be at intense typhoon category (JMA/Category 5) again, it seems.



I agree.

Also, thought the 30% chance of development in the next 48hrs for the disturbance in the caribbean is a little low. Reality is probably more like a 50%-60% chance it becomes a td within 48hrs. However, I've noticed the NHC is very conservative when it comes to development of storms. It isn't conservative in first finding possible areas of development. It's mostly when the storm has been a disturbance for quite some time and is literally on the brink of td status, or already td status, and they'll still be saying 40% or 50%.

That's why I always add 20% to whatever they forecast. So this 30% forecast is probably more akin to 50%.
Good night all, good luck out there in the pacific looks like you are still going to need some. I have noticed lately that if the NHC stays 10 to 20% behind the storms development they will never be wrong on the projection of likely development.
99L has followed Levi's forecast more closely than the NHC's or Dr. Master's thus far.

Orca, I thought that I would never stop laughing after reading the tazer entry on your blog. Too hilarious!!
15 mins ago 3:15 winds maxed out at 41 mph and is sustained at 30-35 mph. Cayman Islands. I think we have a depression.
Quoting shikori:
15 mins ago 3:15 winds maxed out at 41 mph and is sustained at 30-35 mph. Cayman Islands. I think we have a depression.


That's highly suspect.
Quoting KoritheMan:


That's highly suspect.


Good morning.

Nasty weather here just woke me up !. Brief torrential downpour with lightning but has now eased off. Max wind on my station was 25 mph at 3:08 am. This is on the SW coast of Grand Cayman. Obviously a gust in a squall.

Pressure 1011.7 mbs and steady. Winds now variable 6 to 12 mph out of the South and more lightning outside.

99L organizing it would appear near 15.5 N and 82.5 W
Now pouring again. 1.08 inches since midnight
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning.

Nasty weather here just woke me up !. Brief torrential downpour with lightning but has now eased off. Max wind on my station was 25 mph at 3:08 am. This is on the SW coast of Grand Cayman. Obviously a gust in a squall.

Pressure 1011.7 mbs and steady. Winds now variable 6 to 12 mph out of the South and more lightning outside.

99L organizing it would appear near 15.5 N and 82.5 W


This is the east side of th island.
Steering winds for 99L very weak. Back later in the morning

Owen Roberts showing a gust of 31.1 mph.

Out now until the morning

Link
Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning.

Nasty weather here just woke me up !. Brief torrential downpour with lightning but has now eased off. Max wind on my station was 25 mph at 3:08 am. This is on the SW coast of Grand Cayman. Obviously a gust in a squall.

Pressure 1011.7 mbs and steady. Winds now variable 6 to 12 mph out of the South and more lightning outside.

99L organizing it would appear near 15.5 N and 82.5 W


Good morning!
I guess I am not the only one that got woken up by the bad weather
548. IKE
SYNOPSIS FOR THE GULF OF MEXICO
430 AM CDT TUE OCT 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...WEAK STATIONARY HIGH PRES OVER THE N CENTRAL THROUGH
THU AFTERNOON THEN WILL SHIFT TO THE FAR NE GULF LATE THU
THROUGH SAT.

..............................................

SYNOPSIS FOR CARIBBEAN SEA AND TROPICAL N ATLC FROM 07N TO 22N
BETWEEN 55W AND 65W
530 AM EDT TUE OCT 19 2010

.SYNOPSIS...LOW PRES 1011 MB ALONG THE COAST OF HONDURAS NEAR
16N84W. THE LOW WILL MEANDER ACROSS THIS AREA FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. THE LOW HAS THE POTENTIAL TO DEVELOP INTO A TROPICAL
CYCLONE. DISSIPATING STATIONARY FRONT EXTENDS FROM 21N55W TO
21N65W WILL DISSIPATE LATER TODAY.
morning guys , yeah bad weather got me up too.
I guess I am not the only one to be woken up by the bad weather
Why still 30%? They should at least bump it to 60% so we can complain why they aren't calling it a depression.
Latest JTWC forecast for Megi has shifted to the East... again.

CPA - Hong Kong - 0 NM - 23/00Z winds at 130 knots or so...



click on it for twice the size
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:


click on it for twice the size
Good morning. Are you near where Megi should affect ?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good morning. Are you near where Megi should affect ?


So far it's only been high clouds from outflow bands. But if it follows this path, it's going to go right over head.
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:


So far it's only been high clouds from outflow bands. But if it follows this path, it's going to go right over head.
I hope you remain safe and you are in my prayers. Are you in Hong Kong ?
Good morning, everyone. My thoughts and prayers to the Philipines, I heard ten deaths there from Megi.

Friday afternoon I have off, so planning a rain dance. There is a fire now in the National Forest next to me. We need some rain!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
I hope you remain safe and you are in my prayers. Are you in Hong Kong ?


Yes. And thanks. Sounds like it could be a hairy weekend.

6pmHKT MTSAT-2 IR


click on it for full size
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:


So far it's only been high clouds from outflow bands. But if it follows this path, it's going to go right over head.


I hope you have all your supplies in. I'll keep you in my thoughts and prayers as well.
JMA
TY 1013 (Megi)
Issued at 09:40 UTC, 19 October 2010
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16°50'(16.8°)
E118°20'(118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM)
S370km(200NM)
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:
JMA
TY 1013 (Megi)
Issued at 09:40 UTC, 19 October 2010
Intensity Very Strong
Center position N16°50'(16.8°)
E118°20'(118.3°)
Direction and speed of movement STR
Central pressure 945hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(90kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65m/s(130kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 190km(100NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more N560km(300NM)
S370km(200NM)
This says movement is stationary. Just prolongs the destruction. Looks like the winds are down a bit though @ 105 mph.
visiable could be interesting
Good Mornig all

Need coffee

Feels like it will never rain again here in st. Augustine!
Has anyone seen this video report of the destruction in Isabela province? From the reports on this website, it sounds like those 165-mph winds did quite a number on the region. Read here, for instance: Isabela Province is in Ruins.

Glad to hear the death toll is still quite low, though it's hard to believe.
Quoting FlyingScotsman:
Has anyone seen this video report of the destruction in Isabela province? From the reports on this website, it sounds like those 165-mph winds did quite a number on the region. Read here, for instance: Isabela Province is in Ruins.

Glad to hear the death toll is still quite low, though it's hard to believe.
If this is true it is a blessing and although you find it hard to believe when Ivan hit the Cayman Islands in 2004 we only had two deaths that were avoidable.
99L has shear and dry air issues to overcome before development so that why the low chance. But it will for sure be a serious rain squall event no matter what. Probably a TS/cat 1 though before it hits land.

The Swirl/Low at 38W 13N is well defined but convection is being capped by an upper level high.
But if it get's under an unstable air mass or later next week in the Caribbean it could cause problems
From Crown Weather. NW Caribbean should keep and eye to the sky....

Convection around an area of low pressure in the western Caribbean just northeast of the Honduras-Nicaragua border has become better organized overnight and if this convection remains this organized, we may have a tropical depression develop within the next day or so. If this does happen, then once again, the global model guidance have dropped the ball on forecasting the development of a tropical cyclone in the western Caribbean for the second week in a row. So, let’s throw out the model guidance for a minute here and look at current conditions in this area and see what that tells us.
Morning all.

Looking at that video, it seems they haven't gotten to the heart of the damage as yet. If this is the periphery, which would make a lot of sense to me, the places that were in the eyewall prolly look a lot worse. I can only say, thank God it didn't make landfall over the high-population-density area of Manila. I have a feeling the rural nature of the landfall area went a long way to minimizing lives lost - that and the warnings.

Have a GREAT day!
every system is different sounds like the caymens got some rainfall.
Quoting sailingallover:
99L has shear and dry air issues to overcome before development so that why the low chance. But it will for sure be a serious rain squall event no matter what. Probably a TS/cat 1 though before it hits land.

The Swirl/Low at 38W 13N is well defined but convection is being capped by an upper level high.
But if it get's under an unstable air mass or later next week in the Caribbean it could cause problems


Dry air???? Only dry air I see is way north in the gulf. Should have no impact on this Pres depression with very moist air in the Caribbean
I think convection is going to start going in to the vort at 99l
Based on this and the weather pattern beyond 126 hours I would say FL better watch this as this track could very well be that of Wilma and I am not messing around when I say that.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest99l.2010101900/invest99l.2010101900_anim.html
Quoting FLstormwarning:
Based on this and the weather pattern beyond 126 hours I would say FL better watch this as this track could very well be that of Wilma and I am not messing around when I say that.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest99l.2010101900/invest99l.2010101900_ anim.html



We don't need a repeat of the dreaded "W". My ins rate is already too high! 1st visable pics ought to be interesting. You can bet they're gonna be studing them close at the NHC.
Quoting FLstormwarning:
Based on this and the weather pattern beyond 126 hours I would say FL better watch this as this track could very well be that of Wilma and I am not messing around when I say that.

http://www.coaps.fsu.edu/~maue/extreme/gfdl/invest99l.2010101900/invest99l.2010101900_a nim.html


that would be AWESOME!!!
That GFDL run is a little disconcerting.
Up to 40%
Good morning all!

Quoting PensacolaDoug:
That GFDL run is a little disconcerting.


That's a cat 4 heading straight for Cancun after that the steering is NE. Very concerning seeing that this morning and the HWRF is just south of the GFDL so maybe the models are picking up on something now. GFS and Euro show nothing.
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:


So far it's only been high clouds from outflow bands. But if it follows this path, it's going to go right over head.



If that path verifies, Hong Kong will surely be in the news! Batten down the hatches and stay safe!
Quoting PensacolaDoug:
That GFDL run is a little disconcerting.
Here is all that ridging Levi was talking about..The CMC is showing a couple storms too...Link
Quoting poknsnok:


that would be AWESOME!!!


true true
no school XD
Quoting poknsnok:


that would be AWESOME!!!


Thats not how us grownups would describe it!
Richard could do something like this in C and S FL.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QECUFmEPbU0
A little overdone with intensity lol Track looks formidable. HP should block it and kick it into MX.

""
the convection near 99l is WAY north of the genesis point of the GFDL. GFS has been good with genesis and it now shows nothing
first visiable shows alot of clouds in the nw carib. potential depression
Convection not to impressive this morning.
Quoting robert88:
A little overdone with intensity lol Track looks formidable. HP should block it and kick it into MX.

""


After 126 hours a nice trough finally moves into the SE US with some much needed rain and maybe a hurricane to boot. There is no HP next week. Sorry!
Quoting poknsnok:
the convection near 99l is WAY north of the genesis point of the GFDL. GFS has been good with genesis and it now shows nothing

I'm not onboard with this GFDL scenario. I'd rather wait to see if 99L does indeed turn into something first.
that doesn't mean much PensacolaDoug if 99L can build some convection and they find TS winds they will call it TS Richard
Big troughs dipping into the SE US starting next week and we could also see some major severe wx outbreaks for the Mississippi Valley and deep south. Starting to like the tornado potential next week. OZ may have something to chase next week as the severe potential is looking really good infact the best in months.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:



Very few models even have the initial movement correct. Seems they are of little use in the Caribbean this year, wonder why?
TD by this evening or at least 80%
Good Morning...

What shall 99L do... mmm.
I say we may have a TD now or even Richard based on sat and wind obs. HH have to investigate this today as i think we have another Paula surprise down there.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/watl/loop-vis.html
Quoting cat5hurricane:
Loop


We either have Richard or we are very very close right now. We need the HH in there!
IMHO, Looks like it is organizing to me.

ALthought the model runs look like a squished spider so I am hesitant to make a track observation.
Another embarrassment by the NHC as it is obvious we have Richard now. 40 percent hell this should atleast be 80 to 90 percent right now.
ATCF says 99L's pressure has dropped another millibar to 1008, while winds are still at 25 knots. 16.5N/83.3W

AL, 99, 2010101912, , BEST, 0, 165N, 833W, 25, 1008, LO, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 250, 60, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S,
morning wunder-kids!!!,went outside my door today and this funny wet stuff was falling from the sky????,lol.....i live in swfl and its been atleats 3 weeks,hope the precip over the gom builds and moves ashore drenching us,probably just wishful thinking...
Quoting FLstormwarning:
Another embarrassment by the NHC as it is obvious we have Richard now. 40 percent hell this should atleast be 80 to 90 percent right now.


"Another embarrassment", you say? What others have they had?
604. Relix
Quoting Neapolitan:


"Another embarrassment", you say? What others have they had?


The boy obviously knows more than the NHC. Of course its an embarrassment!
Quoting Neapolitan:


"Another embarrassment", you say? What others have they had?


Hey Paula ring a bell! Paula was a TS for 12 hours before they declared it one.
Quoting Relix:


The boy obviously knows more than the NHC. Of course its an embarrassment!


Your comment is an embarrassment! For one this ain't no boy and yes I have extensive knowledge of weather which I care not to share on the blog.
Good morning again

Either the coordinates for the approximate center are too far North once again or the surface low is displaced to the N of the low level vort.

Quoting Relix:


The boy obviously knows more than the NHC. Of course its an embarrassment!
Shear in the Gulf...
Quoting FLstormwarning:


Hey Paula ring a bell! Paula was a TS for 12 hours before they declared it one.


True dat... nhc has been slow as a monsoonal developing cyclone this year
Quoting Neapolitan:


"Another embarrassment", you say? What others have they had?


If this was the 90's and the NHC had Bob Sheets at the helm then I would agree with them but this new crew has dropped the ball many times over the last several years. IMO, and I'm entitled to that so back off.
The pattern aloft for 99L (low wind shear, & aid from the upper-level anticyclone near it) will remain relatively conducive at least through 48 hours. If not right now, I still see 99L developing between now & then.

06Z GFS (250mb plot) up to 48 hours

Click To Enlarge
Quoting mcluvincane:


True dat... nhc has been slow as a monsoonal developing cyclone this year


I agree, they made a mistake with Paula for sure!
Calm down guys....

Quoting kmanislander:
Good morning again

Either the coordinates for the approximate center are too far North once again or the surface low is displaced to the N of the low level vort.


I'm thinking the surface low might have jumped...

Click To Enlarge
Kman-Good morning. Lot's of rain in the night & more on the way for us, by the look of things at the moment.
Quoting hydrus:
Shear in the Gulf...


good morning all.....there is shear in the gulf but its decreasing
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I'm thinking the surface low might have jumped...



It has and it's moving NNW at the moment.
Quoting FLstormwarning:


...I have extensive knowledge of weather which I care not to share on the blog.

Oy vey... Look, while the NHC may change Paula's birth date and/or time in that storm's post-season analysis, I don't think there were at any point a number of the NHC's highly-qualified mets standing around in a near-panic trying to decide whether to classify Paula, or engaging in sinister manipulations to for some reason "hold back" on classification. They just don't work like that, and even if one or two did, there are enough people on duty at any time providing consensus input to prevent such shenanigans. I'm not saying the NHC is infallible, but they have a heck of a lot better handle on this tropical cyclone stuff than any ten of us here do.

"Back off"? Please; I merely asked a polite question...
620. Relix
Quoting FLstormwarning:


Your comment is an embarrassment! For one this ain't no boy and yes I have extensive knowledge of weather which I care not to share on the blog.


Then please do Empress of the Weather =). Or are we underlings too inferior for your superior intellect?

Pff this place has been run down to a joke these days =P.
Must be bash the NHC day. That tune is as tired as an old tennis shoe.
Quoting Relix:


Then please do Empress of the Weather =). Or are we underlings too inferior for your superior intellect?

Pff this place has been run down to a joke these days =P.


Relix needs to Relax. Place is run down with comments like yours.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

I'm thinking the surface low might have jumped...

Click To Enlarge

Looks like it.
Quoting weatherlover94:


good morning all.....there is shear in the gulf but its decreasing
I am sure tropics have a couple more strong storms. It will be interesting to see what 99L does. Really strange weather out there.
Quoting superpete:
Kman-Good morning. Lot's of rain in the night & more on the way for us, by the look of things at the moment.


Yeah, here we go again. This one could meander around some in the NW Caribbean as steering is weak between us and the Yucatan.
Humiliating!
Satellite Imagery shows a significantly better organized invest this morning compared to last morning. Spiral bands are visible in the Southeast corner especially, and it looks like the development of some beginning on the western side. An ASCAT pass from this morning reveals that there is no well-defined circulation, which would limit the formation into a tropical cyclone (TD, TS, etc) today.

However, the system continues to become better organized, with winds of 30 mph, and a pressure of 1008 millibars. I wouldn't say that this is a Tropical Depression or Tropical Storm, but it is definitely approaching the status faster than ever before. With favorable conditions in front of 99L, it is likely we will see a Tropical Depression out of this before Thursday, and a Tropical Storm out of this by Friday. This may be a little too conservative.

Now, as for the National Hurricane Center...They have done an excellent job this year, nailed basically ever storm. Paula was an exception, I mean, who is going to know that this storm that we thought was just an Invest, was a moderate Tropical Storm? I believe they wanted to wait for recon to be sure, and they did. I would say they made a good move with Paula, continuing their streak of good forecasting.


Figure 1. Visible Satellite Imagery of Invest 99L.
The potential for a stall is fairly high with this type of upper level flow.

Quoting FLstormwarning:


Your comment is an embarrassment! For one this ain't no boy and yes I hhave extensive knowledge of weather which I care not to sare on the blog.
Obviously
Quoting stillwaiting:
morning wunder-kids!!!,went outside my door today and this funny wet stuff was falling from the sky????,lol.....i live in swfl and its been atleats 3 weeks,hope the precip over the gom builds and moves ashore drenching us,probably just wishful thinking...
From your lips to the rainmakers ears -- rather crispy on my side of the SKBridge Stillwaiting - FYI when I was out catching the bit of Paula's swell that made it to SWFL - the bad finned one was noticed - the spot where you fish & I surf.... have you seen any??? Seems like they remembered the menu from last year this time.....kinda weird Bulls in SWFL
One bad apple does not ruin the bunch. And we know who the apple is in this situation.
Hi Morning,
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Now, as for the National Hurricane Center...They have done an excellent job this year, nailed basically ever storm. Paula was an exception, I mean, who is going to know that this storm that we thought was just an Invest, was a moderate Tropical Storm? I believe they wanted to wait for recon to be sure, and they did. I would say they made a good move with Paula, continuing their streak of good forecasting.


Excellent summary, and I almost completely agree with your take on Paula.

+10^1,000
Quoting hydrus:
I am sure tropics have a couple more strong storms. It will be interesting to see what 99L does. Really strange weather out there.


defiantly we cant be surprised if nature pulls a fast one on us and really strengthens this thing on us.....if any one remembers when Wilma was on track to hit s Florida when it came off the ucitan it had winds of 100 mph and they said it may weaken further before hitting Florida...at one point it may have only been a cat 1 when it hit but the next day Oct 24 they said wilma continues to strengthen and the shear that perhaps would come in did not and its strengthening as it charges for south Florida
Wonder if it is safe to come out from under the covers. Has that nasty person left yet . I hope so.
well i just want to say so far I have been completely and totally 100 percent correct in my totally amateur ignernt forecast for the season... when people said it was gonna be like 2005 I said yes, and for us here in the panhandle that means lots of storms whizzing past us while we languish beneath an oppressive High sinking further and further into hopeless drought. because thats what happened to us in 2005.
looks like Megi is getting her strength back or more
By the way, I remember back in the good 'ole days, there was always this type of banter on here. There were a lot of Empresses of the Weather. Some of them turned out to be real, some never showed their hole cards and you had to assume they were bluffing.

Anyway, this site has been a internet favorite of mine for a long time, so lets just let it replenish itself and carry on.
Invest 99L
17Oct 12pmGMT - 12.3n79.5w - 20knots - 1009mb - ATCF*11.5n78.2w*12.0n79.2w
17Oct 06pmGMT - 12.8n80.4w - 20knots - 1009mb - ATCF*11.6n78.5w*12.3n79.9w*12.5n80.1w
18Oct 12amGMT - 13.3n81.0w - 20knots - 1010mb - *12.6n80.6w*13.1n81.0w*13.4n81.1w*13.4n81.0w
18Oct 06amGMT - 13.7n81.4w - 20knots - 1010mb - ATCF*14.0n81.8w*14.3n81.8w*13.8n81.5w
18Oct 12pmGMT - 14.1n81.8w - 25knots - 1010mb - ATCF*15.1n82.5w*15.0n82.4w*14.1n81.9w
18Oct 06pmGMT - 14.6n82.3w - 25knots - 1010mb - ATCF*15.7n83.2w*14.5n82.2w
19Oct 12amGMT - 15.1n82.7w - 25knots - 1009mb - ATCF*15.0n82.6w
19Oct 06amGMT - 15.7n83.0w - 25knots - 1008mb - ATCF
19Oct 12pmGMT - 16.5n83.3w - 25knots - 1008mb - ATCF
* Before NHC reevaluated&revised the ATCF numbers

Copy&paste 12.3n79.5w, 12.8n80.4w, 13.3n81.0w, 13.7n81.4w, 14.1n81.8w-14.6n82.3w, 14.6n82.3w-15.1n82.7w, 15.1n82.7w-15.7n83.0w, 15.7n83.0w-16.5n83.3w, ctm into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 24^hours
Quoting mcluvincane:
The nhc is just another government run agency. Probably a bunch of Democrats running it also. Lets gets some good ole Republicans in there.


I agree! We need the Spin Zone! We know most of the blog can't handle that.
I think 99L is atleast a TD as well right now. The center also appears to be further north verifying the GFDL.
Quoting mcluvincane:
The nhc is just another government run agency. Probably a bunch of Democrats running it also. Lets gets some good ole Republicans in there.

I would like that.
Quoting Neapolitan:


Excellent summary, and I almost completely agree with your take on Paula.

+10^1,000


Plus for him and minus for you.
Quoting surfmom:
From your lips to the rainmakers ears -- rather crispy on my side of the SKBridge Stillwaiting - FYI when I was out catching the bit of Paula's swell that made it to SWFL - the bad finned one was noticed - the spot where you fish & I surf.... have you seen any??? Seems like they remembered the menu from last year this time.....kinda weird Bulls in SWFL
...heard they caught a 4-5 footer that was about 2-3 months ago at big pass...no wet roads in your neckof the woods????,we've had light rain here near the village for the last hour or so...nothing heavy though,***fingers crossd the precip in gom makesit ashore***
Quoting Jeff9641:
I think 99L is atleast a TD as well right now. The center also appears to be further north verifying the GFDL.

Are you buying the GFDL yet, Jeff? The GFS sure isn't sniffing out anything yet...
Quoting weatherguy03:
Tropical Update Oct. 19th. 2010

Thnx weatherguy
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Are you buying the GFDL yet, Jeff? The GFS sure isn't sniffing out anything yet...


Intensity not so much as the GFDL does over do it most of the time but I do agree with the track based on it's current position. Either way as a trough moves in later this weekend this could be a nice source of rain for the SE US.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:


I don't see a center there.
Going by the latest ATCF, it puts the center at 16.5N / 83.3W

Click For Loop
657. IKE
AL, 99, 2010101912, , BEST, 0, 165N, 833W

This buoy is at 16.8N and 81.5W....buoy 42057...

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): ESE ( 110 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 9.7 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 13.6 kts
5-day plot - Wave Height Wave Height (WVHT): 3.0 ft
5-day plot - Dominant Wave Period Dominant Wave Period (DPD): 6 sec
5-day plot - Average Period Average Period (APD): 4.6 sec
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.90 in
5-day plot - Pressure Tendency Pressure Tendency (PTDY): +0.06 in ( Rising )
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 83.3 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 74.5 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 82.2 °F
Shear is going to be destructive in the GOM for days to come. Even if 99L makes it into the GOM it gets beheaded like Paula did. Anything between 20 and 25N is doomed. Conditions have not been favorable in the GOM for the majority of the season and looks like it will continue to stay that way through November. Link
Quoting Jeff9641:


Intensity not so much as the GFDL does over do it most of the time but I do agree with the track based on it's current position. Either way as a trough moves in later this weekend this could be a nice source of rain for the SE US.

Yeah...I'm not onboard with the intensity but the track could very well play out. And much needed rain for anywhere in the SE.
Quoting stillwaiting:
...heard they caught a 4-5 footer that was about 2-3 months ago at big pass...no wet roads in your neckof the woods????,we've had light rain here near the village for the last hour or so...nothing heavy though,***fingers crossd the precip in gom makesit ashore***
Got a fine light mist - glorious to get some moisture - my fruit trees are singing!!! (but they are also begging for MORE - been a long spell between rains) did not hear about that shark catch -- thanks for the information (well sort of - ignorance is not bliss in this case)maybe if we both concentrate, we can get that rain to come on shore!!!! getting ready to run & I love RAINRUNNING - com ON R A I N!!!!!!!
Quoting robert88:
Shear is going to be destructive in the GOM for days to come. Even if 99L makes it into the GOM it gets beheaded like Paula did. Anything between 20 and 25N is doomed. Conditions have not been favorable in the GOM for the majority of the season and looks like it will continue to stay that way through November. Link


Not so bad in a weeks time. Shouldn't b a problem for it with a anti cyclone overhead
Stillwaiting - I hope you are able to keep your handle through next season to. (You will still be waiting...)
Morning folks!

Been out for two weeks for surgery and I see very little has changed as far as the atmosphere of the blog goes!

Wish I could have been on board with Paula. I bet this place was hopping!!
Quoting robert88:
Shear is going to be destructive in the GOM for days to come. Even if 99L makes it into the GOM it gets beheaded like Paula did. Anything between 20 and 25N is doomed. Conditions have not been favorable in the GOM for the majority of the season and looks like it will continue to stay that way through November. Link

Agreed. GOM is a death trap for anything even thinking about it.
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Agreed. GOM is a death trap for anything even thinking about it.


towards the VERY end of that model run (last frame) it almost looks like some lower shear is trying to make it's way into the Gulf across Mexico...
San Andres, CO (Airport)
Updated: 8:00 AM COT on October 19, 2010

27 °C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 84%
Dew Point: 24 °C
Wind: 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s from the West

Pressure: 1012 hPa (Rising)
Heat Index: 30 °C
Visibility: 10.0 kilometers
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds:
Few 487 m
Scattered Clouds 6096 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 2 m
Quoting FSUCOOPman:


towards the VERY end of that model run (last frame) it almost looks like some lower shear is trying to make it's way into the Gulf across Mexico...

True...I did notice that at the VERY end which was 7 days (168 hours out). We'll see.
Vietnam is a very wet place today.

Puerto Cabezas, NK (Airport)
Updated: 36 min 12 sec ago

23 °C
Scattered Clouds
Humidity: 94%
Dew Point: 22 °C
Wind: 7 km/h / 2.1 m/s from the WNW

Pressure: 1011 hPa (Falling)
Visibility: 8.0 kilometers
UV: 2 out of 16
Clouds:
Scattered Clouds 487 m
(Above Ground Level)
Elevation: 20 m
Quoting cat5hurricane:

Agreed. GOM is a death trap for anything even thinking about it.


I would of thought this season with such a strong La Nina in place the GOM would have some amazing conditions out there for the 4th quarter. It will be interesting to hear what the experts explanation might be on this over the off season.
Quoting robert88:


I would of thought this season with such a strong La Nina in place the GOM would have some amazing conditions out there for the 4th quarter. It will be interesting to hear what the experts explanation might be on this over the off season.

Yeah, me too. The foundation was laided and the conditions were in place...but nothing. I'm very much anticipating the off season explanations as well.