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Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak Pounding Micronesia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:30 PM GMT on March 31, 2015

Extremely dangerous Category 5 Super Typhoon Maysak is pounding the islands of Yap State in Micronesia's Caroline Islands. At 8 am EDT Tuesday the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) put Maysak's top sustained winds at 160 mph, making it one of only three Category 5 storms ever observed in the Northwestern Pacific prior to April. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) put Maysak's central pressure at 905 mb, the lowest pressure they have estimated for any Northwestern Pacific typhoon occurring so early in the year (previous record: 930 mb for Typhoon Mitag of March 2002, Typhoon Alice of January 1979, and Typhoon Harriet of January 1959.) According to the NWS in Guam, the eye of Maysak has already passed very close to several of the smaller islands of Micronesia--Ulithi and Fais--bringing hurricane-force winds. Ulithi is an atoll about 12 feet above sea level, and Fais is 30 feet above sea level, so storm surge flooding is a huge concern on these low-lying islands. The 00 UTC Tuesday runs of the GFS and European models predict that the center of Maysak will pass about 100 miles northeast of Yap in the Caroline Islands (population 11,000) near 2 pm EDT Tuesday, which is near dawn local time on Wednesday. Since hurricane-force winds extend out about 45 miles from the center, Yap will likely only receive tropical storm-force winds. However, the significant wave heights in Maysak were estimated at 40 feet, and Yap will receive substantial coastal damage and flooding from the storm. Maysak has moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots and a large area of ocean with sea surface temperatures of 28 - 29°C (83 - 84°F) to work with through Wednesday, and will be capable of maintaining Category 5 strength until Thursday. As Maysak approaches the Philippines on Friday and Saturday, wind shear will rise, sea surface temperatures will cool, and the total heat energy in the ocean will decrease sharply, which should weaken Maysak significantly. The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is predicting that Maysak will be a Category 3 storm on Saturday, and at least a Category 1 typhoon when it hits Luzon Island in the Philippines on Easter Sunday.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Super Typhoon Maysak taken at 03:55 UTC March 31, 2015. At the time, Maysak was a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

A record early start to typhoon season
According to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) database, 2015 is now the only season since records began in 1945 to feature three typhoons during the first three months of the year (January, February, and March), and also the first season to have two major typhoons (Category 3 or stronger) during the first three months of the year. The other major typhoon of 2015 was Typhoon Higos, which topped out as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds in February. Maysak is the fourth named storm so far in 2015 in the Northwestern Pacific, and only one other year since 1945 had more named storms by this point--1965, when there were five named storms by the end of March. The previous record for early season typhoons (during January, February, and March) was two, set in 2005, 1979, and 1955. Major typhoons of Category 3 or stronger intensity are rare before April, and only fifteen such storms have been observed between 1945 - 2014. Two of these were Category 5 super typhoons: Super Typhoon Ophelia of January 1958 with 160 mph winds, and Super Typhoon Mitag of March 2002, also with 160 mph winds.

The unusually early start to typhoon season is due, in part, to exceptionally warm waters in the typhoon breeding grounds just west of the International Date Line between 5 - 10° latitude, due to the weak El Niño event that is occurring. Water temperatures there are about 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) warmer than average. Also aiding typhoon formation this month was the strongest MJO event since record keeping began in 1974, which moved through the Western Pacific in mid-March. This MJO event generated an unusually strong band of west-to-east blowing surface winds near the Equator (a "westerly wind burst") that helped spin up Maysak and the storm that preceded it, Tropical Storm Bavi. This "westerly wind burst" will be strengthened by the counter-clockwise flow of air around Maysak, increasing the chances of El Niño lasting into the summer and potentially strengthening this fall. This process could potentially be aided by another tropical storm that the GFS model predicts will develop late this week from Invest 99W, in a location similar to where Maysak developed.

Maysak causes heavy damage to Chuuk
Maysak has already dealt a heavy blow to the islands in the Chuuk State in the Federated States of Micronesia, which have a population of about 50,000. Maysak passed through the islands as a Category 1 storm over the weekend, causing severe damage and five deaths. The eye of the storm passed directly over Weno Island, which recorded a wind gust of 71 mph and almost 7 inches of rain. Communications with Chuuk State are still difficult, so it is uncertain how much damage was done--though early reports indicate that up to 90% of the homes were damaged or destroyed by the storm.


Video 1. Damage in Micronesia's Chuuk State from Typhoon Maysak.

Links
Wunderblogger Lee Grenci has a new post a new post about the upper-level environmentdiscussing how favorable the upper level winds were for allowing Maysak to intensify into a Category 5 storm.

High resolution visible loop of Maysak from March 31, 2015 from CIMSS

High resolution visible loop of Maysak until sunset on March 30, 2015 from CIMSS

Bob Henson will have a new post early this afternoon on the U.S. severe weather potential this week, a major "pattern shift" coming to our weather, and an update on El Niño.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks, Dr. Masters.
Larger view with labeled islands, for those that don't know the Geo very well over there.


Probably cant see it, so here is the link to it, zoomed in.

Click this =D
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.
That video?
The music and sounds?
They showed the same guy with the hammer 3 times (one time he's smiling or laughing).

I feel for the people affected by the storm, but that video was strange (just like a movie trailer).
Quoting 457. StormTrackerScott:



I must admit I love hurricanes as well. I love experiencing the power of a hurricane as 2004/2005 was fun. I know I shouldn't say that but its like people that chase tornadoes for the thrill of it. Those hurricanes of 2004/2005 brought many parties to my house. Lots and lots of beer was being tossed around those days.


Ok, I can understand that... :)

Just imagine if you had lived through the mid-late 1940s... At least it would have been spread out over 5 seasons.


With the coming of the -AMO, we'll probably see the core of the MH landfalls (if we can actually find some) shift southwestward, away from (where it was supposed to be in a -PDO/+AMO combo)... the east coast... W/ exception to Hurricane Gloria (1985) & Hugo (1989), all US major hurricane landfalls in the last few -AMO eras (1900-1925, 1970-1994) have occurred in south Florida or the Gulf of Mexico.

Quoting 5. Webberweather53:



Ok, I can understand that... :)

Just imagine if you had lived through the mid-late 1940s... At least it would have been spread out over 5 seasons.


With the coming of the -AMO, we'll probably see the core of the MH landfalls (if we can actually find some) shift southwestward, away from (where it was supposed to be in a -PDO/+AMO combo)... the east coast... W/ exception to Hurricane Gloria (1985) & Hugo (1989), all US major hurricane landfalls in the last few -AMO eras (1900-1925, 1970-1994) have occurred in south Florida or the Gulf of Mexico.

I like you. :)
Thanks Doc. They are getting bigger stronger earlier. Who knows, in a few decades, the Atlantic may very well see moderate activity in all months.
Quoting 7. hydrus:

Thanks Doc. They are getting bigger stronger earlier. Who knows, in a few decades, the Atlantic may very well see moderate activity in all months.
western pacific is likely to be the seasons hyper active region along with epac sw southern atlantic area we shall see 60 days away
04W/STY/M/C5
Quoting 7. hydrus:

Thanks Doc. They are getting bigger stronger earlier. Who knows, in a few decades, the Atlantic may very well see moderate activity in all months.


Hydrus doing his best Kanye West impression.

Thanks for the update, Doc. That MODIS image of Maysak is just gorgeous.

It looks like the most recent wobble has been towards the South, but it might be because the loop seems choppy.
SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) – The first three months of 2015 were the driest three months to begin any year in the history of San Francsico, according to statistics from Golden Gate Weather Services.

The total rainfall in San Francisco for January, February and March 2015 is just 1.59″ – the lowest in the 165 years that rainfall records have been kept. The previous record was from 2013 when there was 2.31″. The March monthly total is 0.12″ through the 29th, the fourth lowest in SF history. The bulk of San Francisco’s 2015 rain 1.47″ inches came in February.

2015 and 2013 were the only two of the 10 driest starts on record have come since 1984. Half of the driest years on record came before 1923.

Here’s a look at similar numbers in other Bay Area locations from January-March via Golden Gate Weather Services:
San Jose 1.94″ – 3rd driest.
Santa Rosa 4.44″ – 3rd driest.
Livermore 1.77″ – Driest start on record.
Santa Cruz 3.36″ – 2nd Driest.


Link

Quoting 11. LongIslandBeaches:



Hydrus doing his best Kanye West impression.
XD
Thanks Dr. Masters, interesting to see what becomes of the rest of the season. Hope all are OK...
Quoting Torito:
Larger view with labeled islands, for those that don't know the Geo very well over there.


Probably cant see it, so here is the link to it, zoomed in.

Click this =D
Although Ulithi and about 500 other islands are not shown. You still need a good online or paper atlas when looking at the South Pacific. No one seems to know the actual number of islands in the Pacific but it's somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000.
Quoting 6. KoritheMan:


I like you. :)



Scratch that, of the 22 US -AMO MH landfalls, Hugo (1989) is the lone east coast MH hit (minus south Florida), even though Bob (1991), Gloria (1985) & Emily (1993) came pretty close... :)

Quoting 16. Webberweather53:



Scratch that, of the 22 US -AMO MH landfalls, Hugo (1989) is the lone east coast MH hit (minus south Florida), even though Bob (1991), Gloria (1985) & Emily (1993) came pretty close... :)
Don't forget Diana (1984).
I must say I do miss posting on here often. Hopefully I can catch "WU bug" and actually stick to this place for more than few days ;)
Quoting 15. sar2401:
Although Ulithi and about 500 other islands are not shown. You still need a good online or paper atlas when looking at the South Pacific. No one seems to know the actual number of islands in the Pacific but it's somewhere between 20,000 and 30,000.


I do wonder if people are still discovering more stuff out there in terms of land.
I tend to use this, it isn't great but better than nothing.



Link to zoomed version
Thanks doc. Really horrible to probably see more "tropical paradise" in the Pacific devastated, just a few weeks after evil Pam. Hopefully the people on Ulithi had a chance to evacuate or at least a safe place as those islands are very flat.

And the latest of our windstorm "Niklas" (maps on the last blog or my personal one): Main railway station in Munich (a very busy place!) had to be closed and evacuated due to parts of the roof coming down; fire department in Berlin declared state of emergency ...

Edit: Death toll in Germany is 4 now, unfortunately.
(Media say 3, but probably there's another victim in Bavaria).
Edit: Another victim in Switzerland.
Quoting 12. ColoradoBob1:

SAN FRANCISCO (CBS SF) – The first three months of 2015 were the driest three months to begin any year in the history of San Francsico, according to statistics from Golden Gate Weather Services.

The total rainfall in San Francisco for January, February and March 2015 is just 1.59″ – the lowest in the 165 years that rainfall records have been kept. The previous record was from 2013 when there was 2.31″. The March monthly total is 0.12″ through the 29th, the fourth lowest in SF history. The bulk of San Francisco’s 2015 rain 1.47″ inches came in February.

2015 and 2013 were the only two of the 10 driest starts on record have come since 1984. Half of the driest years on record came before 1923.

Here’s a look at similar numbers in other Bay Area locations from January-March via Golden Gate Weather Services:
San Jose 1.94″ – 3rd driest.
Santa Rosa 4.44″ – 3rd driest.
Livermore 1.77″ – Driest start on record.
Santa Cruz 3.36″ – 2nd Driest.


Link


Just incredible. I continue to not understand how more of an issue isn't being made about this in the media at large. The amount of the state in D4 drought increased by about 2% last week.

Quoting 17. KoritheMan:


Don't forget Diana (1984).



Very true... Interestingly enough, last season marked the first time since 1962 & 1963, a few years before the major multidecadal AMO flip to its cold phase in 1965, that we observed a greater amount of hurricane ACE in the Atlantic during October than August & September combined. Coincidence? I doubt it...
Quoting 21. tampabaymatt:



Just incredible. I continue to not understand how more of an issue isn't being made about this in the media at large. The amount of the state in D4 drought increased by about 2% last week.




The media has reinvented itself to only live on the "exciting news" happening now. Droughts are slow moving "boring" news. The media will continue to ignore it until it is exciting enough to warrant their coverage. That appears it will only happen when the reservoirs dry up.
Quoting 21. tampabaymatt:



I continue to not understand how more of an issue isn't being made about this in the media at large.



Observe!
See how the same kind of looking away in the face of absolute disaster is going on in Sao Paulo. See how Syria got warned as early as 2008 (by the UN) as annual precip fell up to 40% over the past half century there, an unseen drought got superposed over that, and millions of cropless/waterless peasants migrated to the cities only to be shot at couple of years later when they began to protest openly. That is climate change denial, it will happen in the face of reality and the Levant war is your outcome for the world by middle or end of this century.
Observe!
So at least 'du hast es wohl gewusst'.
Quoting 24. cRRKampen:


Observe!
See how the same kind of looking away in the face of absolute disaster is going on in Sao Paulo. See how Syria got warned as early as 2008 (by the UN) as annual precip fell up to 40% over the past half century there, an unseen drought got superposed over that, and millions of cropless/waterless peasants migrated to the cities only to be shot at couple of years later when they began to protest openly. That is climate change denial, it will happen in the face of reality and the Levant war is your outcome for the world at last by middle or end of this century.
Observe!
So at least 'du hast es wohl gewußt'.

faster and faster
Quoting 25. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

faster and faster

Indeed.
Sierra Nevada snow water content currently at 1.7 inches, or 6% of normal for this date.
CA Snow Pack Conditions

Graphical representation of current snow pack in relation to previous drought year and record high ('82-'83) and low years ('76-'77).
CA Snow Water Content
04W has likely reached and passed its peak

still very dangerous storm


Quoting 22. Webberweather53:



Very true... Interestingly enough, last season marked the first time since 1962 & 1963, a few years before the major multidecadal AMO flip to its cold phase in 1965, that we observed a greater amount of hurricane ACE in the Atlantic during October than August & September combined. Coincidence? I doubt it...
So you think we're about to enter the negative multidecadal cycle again? It's something I've ruminated on for awhile.
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
04W has likely reached and passed its peak

still very dangerous storm




am not sure if that is ture with the eye like that still going strong i think it still has time too get a little stronger be for it starts too weak in some


Very beautiful, although devastating system.
Quoting 5. Webberweather53:



Ok, I can understand that... :)

Just imagine if you had lived through the mid-late 1940s... At least it would have been spread out over 5 seasons.


With the coming of the -AMO, we'll probably see the core of the MH landfalls (if we can actually find some) shift southwestward, away from (where it was supposed to be in a -PDO/+AMO combo)... the east coast... W/ exception to Hurricane Gloria (1985) & Hugo (1989), all US major hurricane landfalls in the last few -AMO eras (1900-1925, 1970-1994) have occurred in south Florida or the Gulf of Mexico.



Good morning! Funny that you posted this! The other day, I mentioned that while cleaning out my grandmother's house, we found a scrapbook of newspaper clippings detailing the forgotten hurricane of 1947. The pictures are amazing, but the one that stood out was of a palm that not only had been bent by the winds into a narrow 'U' shape, but had also been twisted around! The information in this scrapbook is absolutely incredible! And how many South Floridians actually know that a Cat 4 hurricane made a direct strike on Boca Raton! That same hurricane today would have the possibility of being one of the deadliest and costliest!
That eye though.

Quoting 29. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

04W has likely reached and passed its peak

still very dangerous storm




This will likely result in one of the strongest WWB on record I'm afraid. Really need to watch the next 2 weeks to see how strong of a WWB we get as the MJO will be in the area around that time as well. All this is doing is sending the wheels in motion for all the heat to get focused in the E-Pac and as that happens we will see systems like this just off Mexico come Summer if not even in May.
Quoting 29. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
04W has likely reached and passed its peak

still very dangerous storm



In case y'all are wondering, my new profile picture is a shot I took of downtown Asheville using my Nikon D3100 this past January. Western North Carolina mountains are very photographic :)



Might get just a Littttlleeee more..
Yep. As of 4:30pm, about 1hr20min ago, parks and gardens have been closed due to the storm.

Quoting 20. barbamz:

Thanks doc. Really horrible to probably see more "tropical paradise" in the Pacific devastated, just a few weeks after evil Pam. Hopefully the people on Ulithi had a chance to evacuate or at least a safe place as those islands are very flat.

And the latest of our windstorm "Niklas" (maps on the last blog or my personal one): Main railway station in Munich (a very busy place!) had to be closed and evacuated due to parts of the roof coming down; fire department in Berlin declared state of emergency ...
Very large system for something this early..

Thanks Jeff...
Just showing how fast these things can blow up..

3 Days ago.



Now. (hours ago)

These WWB have now resulted in 6C anomalies in the sub surface warm pool which will update on the CPC site later this week. Warm pool is quickly catching up to the record setting one of 2014.
Quoting 24. cRRKampen:


Observe!
See how the same kind of looking away in the face of absolute disaster is going on in Sao Paulo. See how Syria got warned as early as 2008 (by the UN) as annual precip fell up to 40% over the past half century there, an unseen drought got superposed over that, and millions of cropless/waterless peasants migrated to the cities only to be shot at couple of years later when they began to protest openly. That is climate change denial, it will happen in the face of reality and the Levant war is your outcome for the world by middle or end of this century.
Observe!
So at least 'du hast es wohl gewusst'.


Iran faced with deadly water crisis

According to official figures the reservoirs of Iran are only forty percent complete. And nine cities which include the capital of Iran, Tehran are threatened with water restrictions after an unusually dry winter.

Many of the major water bodies located near the regions including the Zayanderud Lake and Orumiyeh Lake have dried up. Just to let you imagine how troubling that is the size of Lake Orumiyeh is close to one hundred and forty five kilometers in length and forty eight kilometers wide, and it is the salt lake closest to Iran’s northwest border with Turkey, now imagine this huge area that was filled to the brim with water now almost empty.

Even the city of Isfahan (which is one of the most beautiful places in Iran with its wonderful palaces, Bridges, mosques and boulevards) through which runs the Zayanderud River has become dry as a husk.


Link



Quoting 28. oldnewmex:

Sierra Nevada snow water content currently at 1.7 inches, or 6% of normal for this date.
CA Snow Pack Conditions

Graphical representation of current snow pack in relation to previous drought year and record high ('82-'83) and low years ('76-'77).
CA Snow Water Content
Thanks for this .... very interesting .... and worrying.     I think the most interesting feature is not the disastrously low levels, but the fundamental shift in start/finish of the snow season.    We have seen the same shift in seasons up here in the north for the last decade .... winter starting and finishing months away from when it used to.   In our case winter is starting two to three months late, real cold (-40c) if it happens at all in now Feb. instead of Jan. .... and spring starts in March/April instead of April/May.   Note: this is anecdotal based on living here for 40 years, not based on researched records ..... someone with some spare time might like to delve a little deeper into that apparent trend.
Quoting 19. Torito:



I do wonder if people are still discovering more stuff out there in terms of land.
I doubt there is more land to be discovered...Google earth put an end to that. :)
More undiscovered surf breaks....oh yea!
Quoting 46. Abacosurf:
I doubt there is more land to be discovered...Google earth put an end to that. :)
More undiscovered surf breaks....oh yea!


Welllll. How bout 'visited' land. As in. land that has been explored. Even with today's technology there must still be something out there that hasn't been documented very well.
Quoting tampabaymatt:


Just incredible. I continue to not understand how more of an issue isn't being made about this in the media at large. The amount of the state in D4 drought increased by about 2% last week.

A search using "California Drought" returns 57,300,000 records. It is being talked about. I don't know if it's just because you're in Florida that you don't see much about it, but my friends in California tell me it's the number one in what people are discussing today. More and more restrictions are being put in place as the drought continues. It's just being done quietly - unless you live in California and you are the target of the restrictions. Now it seems that even growing weed in Humbolt County/a> is both a cause of less water and less weed. Almost nothing in California is not being impacted by the drought.

45. GreatSlaveLake
4:00 PM GMT on March 31, 2015

Note: this is anecdotal based on living here for 40 years, not based on researched records ..... someone with some spare time might like to delve a little deeper into that apparent trend.

It's not in your head :


NWT fire season to pick up where it left off: minister

Lack of fall rain, snow suggests high drought code for spring 2015
by Meagan Wohlberg

For those trying to forget the smoke, road closures and close calls with towering infernos of flame of last summer’s furious fire season in the Northwest Territories, 2015 is bound to jog your memory, according to the territory’s environment minister.

Michael Miltenberger said last week that the 2015 forest fire season is likely to pick up where the last – considered the worst in NWT history – left off.


Link
Quoting 48. sar2401:

A search using "California Drought" returns 57,300,000 records. It is being talked about. I don't know if it's just because you're in Florida that you don't see much about it, but my friends in California tell me it's the number one in what people are discussing today. More and more restrictions are being put in place as the drought continues. It's just being done quietly - unless you live in California and you are the target of the restrictions. Now it seems that even growing weed in Humbolt County/a> is both a cause of less water and less weed. Almost nothing in California is not being impacted by the drought.


This is a matter of opinion. For something this potentially dire, I would expect to see a lot more in the national news about it. I'm not saying it's not talked about at all, but that I'm surprised to not hear/read more about it in national news. As for restrictions, do you mean the restrictions that people need a hose with a nozzle on it in order to wash their cars, or something that will actually accomplish something?
Quoting 31. Tazmanian:




am not sure if that is ture with the eye like that still going strong i think it still has time too get a little stronger be for it starts too weak in some

I am going by the colour scheme of funktop and at the moment its weaken slightly lost all the greens or pretty much all anyway and yes it could still get them back but that remains to be seen jsl showing this as well warming tops

Thanks Dr. M for the stats for the early West-Pac season; this does not bode well for the remainder of that season and the warmer SST's and lower shear due to the El Nino is not going to help much over the next few months. Now we have to see how the E-Pac sets up going into their start of the season on May 15th; could be a banner year for those parts as well like we have seen the last two E-Pac seasons.
Quoting 50. tampabaymatt:



This is a matter of opinion. For something this potentially dire, I would expect to see a lot more in the national news about it. I'm not saying it's not talked about at all, but that I'm surprised to not hear/read more about it in national news. As for restrictions, do you mean the restrictions that people need a hose with a nozzle on it in order to wash their cars, or something that will actually accomplish something?


Unless its exciting, the media just doesn't give a crap. Drought in California, no matter how dire the consequences, will not get attention on a wide scale until the media can show people fleeing the state or having to drive hours to get fresh water. At that point it will be much too late to do anything meaningful.
Quoting sar2401:
A search using "California Drought" returns 57,300,000 records. It is being talked about. I don't know if it's just because you're in Florida that you don't see much about it, but my friends in California tell me it's the number one in what people are discussing today. More and more restrictions are being put in place as the drought continues. It's just being done quietly - unless you live in California and you are the target of the restrictions. Now it seems that even growing weed in Humbolt County/a> is both a cause of less water and less weed. Almost nothing in California is not being impacted by the drought.

You're darn tootin' it's a big deal. All the illegal diversions are drying up the streams and even major rivers (Eel River went dry for a few hundred feet last fall). This is terrible for fish habitat and other aquatic life.

I fully expected to see violence over water disputes last summer (illegal diversions drying up senior water rights) and thankfully, that didn't happen. This year actually may be a little better with the late rains we are getting (0.25 last night). We are at 84% of normal here in Eureka.
Quoting 50. tampabaymatt:



This is a matter of opinion. For something this potentially dire, I would expect to see a lot more in the national news about it. I'm not saying it's not talked about at all, but that I'm surprised to not hear/read more about it in national news. As for restrictions, do you mean the restrictions that people need a hose with a nozzle on it in order to wash their cars, or something that will actually accomplish something?


In sociology, it is often referred to as news "burden". The media reports on things only immediately relevant to dominant classes in society. A good case in point to describe this was the whole outbreak over Ebola. Ebola was and is still raging in many African nations, it hasn't gone away. It only became news when we had an immediate danger here in the U.S., and a supporting narrative that created a counter narrative (the elections and republican versus democrat responses to it).

I would be willing to bet the California drought, while certainly immediately relevant to Californians and weather geeks, is still not immediately relevant to the majority of the nation. Couple this concept with American individualism which puts more focus on regional and local issues, or rather, how if affects you the news consumer (which is why we see national media generally focus on politics, tragedy, terrorism, and feel good human interest).

I certainly don't disagree that more national coverage of this is warranted, but quite frankly, the news narrative is not interested, we have religious freedom in Indiana and ISIS to worry about.

The only thing I can say is as a news consumer, don't wait for national outlets to pick up on these stories, you'll get much better results and higher quality news from regional and local sources as the burden is more relevant.

looking at the current SST near the Peruvian coast appears to be cooling
wtf is with everyone's portraits disappearing? I only see Keeper's.
Quoting 57. KoritheMan:

wtf is with everyone's portraits disappearing? I only see Keeper's.

Same here!
Quoting 57. KoritheMan:

wtf is with everyone's portraits disappearing? I only see Keeper's.



Yup; time to update mine anyway but they have all dissapeared for now; feel like my identity has been violated....... :)
Quoting 57. KoritheMan:

wtf is with everyone's portraits disappearing? I only see Keeper's.


I see yours. I see mine. That's it.
Quoting 55. Naga5000:



In sociology, it is often referred to as news "burden". The media reports on things only immediately relevant to dominant classes in society. A good case in point to describe this was the whole outbreak over Ebola. Ebola was and is still raging in many African nations, it hasn't gone away. It only became news when we had an immediate danger here in the U.S., and a supporting narrative that created a counter narrative (the elections and republican versus democrat responses to it).

I would be willing to bet the California drought, while certainly immediately relevant to Californians and weather geeks, is still not immediately relevant to the majority of the nation. Couple this concept with American individualism which puts more focus on regional and local issues, or rather, how if affects you the news consumer (which is why we see national media generally focus on politics, tragedy, terrorism, and feel good human interest).

I certainly don't disagree that more national coverage of this is warranted, but quite frankly, the news narrative is not interested, we have religious freedom in Indiana and ISIS to worry about.

The only thing I can say is as a news consumer, don't wait for national outlets to pick up on these stories, you'll get much better results and higher quality news from regional and local sources as the burden is more relevant.




And yet the general population will not do anything but consume whatever is fed to them, be it national or regional and thus will be outraged when the drought (and its national consequences) "suddenly" throws their day to day life upside down.

Your point about Ebola was well put. Except for the five weeks or so when it was in the national attention, nobody that I work with had any idea what was going on (probably right now they assume its gone away). The California drought is the sleeper story of the past few years. I'm sure that while the national media may not be reporting on that issue, they are keeping a close eye to the unfolding events in hopes to be the first to "break" the news to the "unsuspecting" public. The weather dweebs (myself included) may want to just inwardly smirk when this happens.
It means we're all a bunch of pawns in somebody's game.
Quoting 61. tlawson48:



And yet the general population will not do anything but consume whatever is fed to them, be it national or regional and thus will be outraged when the drought (and its national consequences) "suddenly" throws their day to day life upside down.

Your point about Ebola was well put. Except for the five weeks or so when it was in the national attention, nobody that I work with had any idea what was going on (probably right now they assume its gone away). The California drought is the sleeper story of the past few years. I'm sure that while the national media may not be reporting on that issue, they are keeping a close eye to the unfolding events in hopes to be the first to "break" the news to the "unsuspecting" public. The weather dweebs (myself included) may want to just inwardly smirk when this happens.


I'm willing to bet that if a poll was done, it would find that the vast majority of people in America have no idea there is a severe drought in California. That is sort of my point. Surely everyone knows about ISIS by now, but I suspect that isn't the case when it comes to the CA drought. My theory is that everyone just expects it to magically go away and the rains to come. I remember that bad Atlanta drought a few years ago. That seemed to get a lot more attention than this, and I recall lots of stories about how Lake Lanier was going to dry up. The difference is that Atlanta is in an area of the country that is a lot more prone to rainfall than CA. Maybe the media thinks they overdid it on the Atlanta drought so are taking a step back on this?
Ophelia's 140 kts winds in 1958 seem not to be very reliable, since the windspeeds were routinely overestimated from the 40s to the 60s. The lowest assigned pressure for Ophelia I found was 940 hPa, which would also not really support the 140 kts.
http://www.aoml.noaa.gov/hrd/tcfaq/E1.html
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1958_Pacific_typhoon _season
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/digital-typhoon/summary /wnp/s/195801.html.en
Quoting 56. stoormfury:

looking at the current SST near the Peruvian coast appears to be cooling
La nina!

Quoting 65. Gearsts:

La nina!
No.

Quoting 51. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


I am going by the colour scheme of funktop and at the moment its weaken slightly lost all the greens or pretty much all anyway and yes it could still get them back but that remains to be seen jsl showing this as well warming tops


Increasing outer banding and a warming of the eyewall convection could suggest a concentric eyewall cycle may soon be underway.
Quoting 57. KoritheMan:

wtf is with everyone's portraits disappearing? I only see Keeper's.

I did not see anyone not even my own weird burp prelude to crash who knows more duct tape somebody quick
Quoting 67. KoritheMan:


Increasing outer banding and a warming of the eyewall convection could suggest a concentric eyewall cycle may soon be underway.

yeah that's what its doing I think light of the day min will hit it too
Quoting 6. KoritheMan:


I like you. :)


Yeah, I think what you really like is the image of that '47 hurricane coming straight through Lakes Ponchartrain and Maurepas...
Quoting 67. KoritheMan:


Increasing outer banding and a warming of the eyewall convection could suggest a concentric eyewall cycle may soon be underway.



Quoting 70. LAbonbon:


Yeah, I think what you really like is the image of that '47 hurricane coming straight through Lakes Ponchartrain and Maurepas...
Lol.

Nah. But I have like, multitudes of weather friends, largely because of my time on this site. Chasing just becomes easier and more efficient if the majority of cyclonic activity (or landfalls, rather) is confined to the Gulf of Mexico. They can give me rides.
Quoting 65. Gearsts:

La nina!


Looks like we're on track for a cold warm-based La Nina.
WTPQ31 PGUM 311422
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) ADVISORY NUMBER 19
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
200 AM CHST WED APR 1 2015

...EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK MOVING AWAY FROM ULITHI...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING ON FAIS. HOWEVER...DAMAGING
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 2 TO 4
HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI IN YAP STATE. THE EYE
OF MAYSAK BRIEFLY PASSED OVER ULITHI AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS HAVE
RESUMED. TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE IMMINENT OR OCCURRING AND
TYPHOON FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING...
ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTHERN YAP WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.4N 139.3E

ABOUT 95 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 40 MILES NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 105 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 425 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST...280 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK WILL BE
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 10.4 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 139.3
EAST...MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST AT 14 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ON THIS TRACK WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE EYE OF
MAYSAK ABOUT 70 MILES NORTH OF YAP TODAY AROUND SUNRISE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 160 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A SUPER TYPHOON DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND 125 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 500 AM...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800
AM.
Quoting 72. KoritheMan:


Lol.

Nah. But I have like, multitudes of weather friends, largely because of my time on this site. Chasing just becomes easier and more efficient if the majority of cyclonic activity (or landfalls, rather) is confined to the Gulf of Mexico. They can give me rides.


Another storm like that and it would be coming right over us. You'd hardly have to go anywhere :o
I was of the same opinion Drak. that's the reason for observing the reducing SST near the Peruvian coast
Quoting 406. ColoradoBob1:

Research links two millennia of cyclones, floods, El Niño
March 30, 2015

Stalagmites, which crystallize from water dropping onto the floors of caves, millimeter by millimeter, over thousands of years, leave behind a record of climate change encased in stone. Newly published research by Rhawn Denniston, professor of geology at Cornell College, and his research team, applied a novel technique to stalagmites from the Australian tropics to create a 2,200-year-long record of flood events that might also help predict future climate change.

Link

Very interesting article. Thanks for posting this. Tried to access the originating article, and you guessed it, paywall.

Quoting 75. LAbonbon:


Another storm like that and it would be coming right over us. You'd hardly have to go anywhere :o
I imagine a storm with that track would prompt a ton of inland evacuations. I haven't seen that before or since Gustav.
Quoting 63. tampabaymatt:



I'm willing to be that if a poll was done, it would find that the vast majority of people in America have no idea there is a severe drought in California. That is sort of my point. Surely everyone knows about ISIS by now, but I suspect that isn't the case when it comes to the CA drought. My theory is that everyone just expects it to magically go away and the rains to come. I remember that bad Atlanta drought a few years ago. That seemed to get a lot more attention than this, and I recall lots of stories about how Lake Lanier was going to dry up. The difference is that Atlanta is in an area of the country that is a lot more prone to rainfall than CA. Maybe the media thinks they overdid it on the Atlanta drought so are taking a step back on this?


If the media overdid it, then it never made it to my ears. This is the first I heard that Atlanta was on the verge of a water crisis. I recall the drought issues, but in terms of Lake Lanier, never heard of it until I read your post five minutes ago. I am better versed in climate issues now versus five years ago, but someone who doesn't care about the weather at all, would not have heard of drought in Georgia or drought in California unless it was the lead story on every news network.

So it really boils down to what sells: terrorism (tangential, scare the crap out of people), mass tragedy (people love a car wreck) and mindless celebrity drivel (we all want to be somebody else).
12Z GFS is really cranking out the Southern Jet starting next week. If this trend continues then it does appear FL could have its wettest April since the early 1990's. Very wet and stormy times ahead so enjoy the dry weather now as things look to turn quite wet starting later next week. This also does not bode well for a active severe weather period for the Plains starting later next week. This is what the CFSv2 has been eluding too and now the GFS seems to be latching on as well.

Quoting 73. Drakoen:



Looks like we're on track for a cold warm-based La Nina.
La nino?

Quoting 80. StormTrackerScott:

12Z GFS is really cranking out the Southern Jet starting next week. If this trend continues then it does appear FL could have its wettest April since the early 1990's. Very wet and stormy times ahead so enjoy the dry weather now as things look to turn quite wet starting later next week. This also does not bode well for a active severe weather period for the Plains starting later next week. This is what the CFSv2 has been eluding too and now the GFS seems to be latching on as well.


ECMWF keeps an amplified longwave trough out West.
Quoting 66. KoritheMan:


No.

sarcasm
From NASA Earth Observatory, the Image of the Day for March 31, 2015:

Global Lightning Activity

(Note: for those who have their screen brightness turned down due to WU's blnding whiteness, you might want to turn it up for this image to get better contrast)



Where does lightning flash most frequently? According to satellite observations, it occurs more often over land than over the oceans. And lightning seems to happen more often closer to the equator.

The map above shows the average yearly counts of lightning flashes per square kilometer from 1995 to 2013. Areas with the fewest number of flashes each year are gray and purple; areas with the largest number of lightning flashes—as many as 150 per year per square kilometer—are bright pink.
Read more

Quoting Drakoen:


Looks like we're on track for a cold warm-based La Nina.



oh no where not we are well on are way too a vary strong too super strong EL nino
Quoting 25. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

faster and faster
Not so much faster and faster, unless you are talking about time when you get older. The problem is, there are too many people on this small planet that are being affected by natural weather and climate events that have happened in the past and will happen again in the future, maybe not quite the same but pretty close.
Quoting 82. KoritheMan:


ECMWF keeps an amplified longwave trough out West.



Going to be interesting as the CMC is also trending with the GFS. These models are really amping up this Southern Branch. Will be interesting to see if this trend in the models continues thru the week as I believe the models are picking up on this strengthening ENSO signal. Could also see severe weather being focused more toward the Gulf Coast States.
Quoting 82. KoritheMan:


ECMWF keeps an amplified longwave trough out West.



Euro is also known to have a western bias across the US with its troughs. Again well see but very interesting as the GFS has a very strong southern jet setting up. Maybe the strongest this year.\

Here it is at 240hrs carving itself out.


At 288hrs the jet is set and stay in place thru the end of the run. Moving system after system along that jet keeping Southern Texas to FL wet.
Quoting 73. Drakoen:



Looks like we're on track for a cold warm-based La Nina.
Quoting 66. KoritheMan:


No.

Maybe.
Quoting 88. StormTrackerScott:



Euro is also known to have a western bias across the US with its troughs. Again well see but very interesting as the GFS has a very strong southern jet setting up. Maybe the strongest this year.
The eastern US longwave is starting to break, that last cold snap notwithstanding. That may lend more credence to the ECMWF, but this ridging could of course be temporal, and the GFS solution could end up being the correct one. The global models often have trouble removing semipermanent synoptic pressure patterns (whether that's trough or ridge) accurately, and they usually end up being too fast with removing the feature.
Quoting 85. Tazmanian:




oh no where not we are well on are way too a vary strong too super strong EL nino
Is that a super El Nina or a Super Duper El Nina ?
Quoting 86. NativeSun:

Not so much faster and faster, unless you are talking about time when you get older. The problem is, there are too many people on this small planet that are being affected by natural weather and climate events that have happened in the past and will happen again in the future, maybe not quite the same but pretty close.


LOL. Time sure does fly faster as you get older...

Lightning map was cool - and from what I have observed seems reasonable. I've only heard lightning once since I have been in AK. And everyone around me jumped about three feet off the ground. My wife and I kinda looked at each other, like what just happened? Did we miss something? We were outside when it hit... And this was just after we got here, so seeing and hearing lightning for us was a non-event.

THEN we were told they don't usually get lightning and thunder here.
Quoting 63. tampabaymatt:



I'm willing to bet that if a poll was done, it would find that the vast majority of people in America have no idea there is a severe drought in California. That is sort of my point. Surely everyone knows about ISIS by now, but I suspect that isn't the case when it comes to the CA drought. My theory is that everyone just expects it to magically go away and the rains to come. I remember that bad Atlanta drought a few years ago. That seemed to get a lot more attention than this, and I recall lots of stories about how Lake Lanier was going to dry up. The difference is that Atlanta is in an area of the country that is a lot more prone to rainfall than CA. Maybe the media thinks they overdid it on the Atlanta drought so are taking a step back on this?


It could be that California faces many droughts.....It happens often....It would be the same as asking someone did you know it snowed during the winter in Canada....
on the what is news today is not news tomorrow topic......do you remember two weeks ago....the hypsters were spreading the news that the MJO was going to reenter the western pacific after it just left the quadrant and this would cause havoc with ENSO and lead to a strong...even dare we say it...super el nino....now...the MJO talk is just a memory...not even a whisper....silence.......

well...what happened.....oh...it didn't materialize....and in fact...if you're a believer in the long range models....not only did it not reenter the western pacific...it's going to be quite sometime before it does so

Quoting 94. ricderr:

on the what is news today is not news tomorrow topic......do you remember two weeks ago....the hypsters were spreading the news that the MJO was going to reenter the western pacific after it just left the quadrant and this would cause havoc with ENSO and lead to a strong...even dare we say it...super el nino....now...the MJO talk is just a memory...not even a whisper....silence.......

well...what happened.....oh...it didn't materialize....and in fact...if you're a believer in the long range models....not only did it not reenter the western pacific...it's going to be quite sometime before it does so




Well,we have Supertyphoon MEYSAK that was created by it.
It could be that California faces many droughts.....It happens often....It would be the same as asking someone did you know it snowed during the winter in Canada....

let's look at that closely.....boston gets snow every year....however...this year boston was in the national news for two months for getting just that....snow...but it was a hundred year event.....so it takes the air out of your argument....but no worries...you're used to that :-)
oh lordy M N opened a vicious can of W A on those little islands..Hope all made it through

Quoting 86. NativeSun:

Not so much faster and faster, unless you are talking about time when you get older. The problem is, there are too many people on this small planet that are being affected by natural weather and climate events that have happened in the past and will happen again in the future, maybe not quite the same but pretty close.
Quoting 93. yoboi:



It could be that California faces many droughts.....It happens often....It would be the same as asking someone did you know it snowed during the winter in Canada....


Oh, things have happened before, therefore, they cannot possibly be exacerbated by a warmer world or happen more frequently. You guys are too funny. Where do I sign up to get the daily anti-climate change talking points?
Quoting 94. ricderr:

on the what is news today is not news tomorrow topic......do you remember two weeks ago....the hypsters were spreading the news that the MJO was going to reenter the western pacific after it just left the quadrant and this would cause havoc with ENSO and lead to a strong...even dare we say it...super el nino....now...the MJO talk is just a memory...not even a whisper....silence.......

well...what happened.....oh...it didn't materialize....and in fact...if you're a believer in the long range models....not only did it not reenter the western pacific...it's going to be quite sometime before it does so




Lots of people have talked about the MJO infact Dr. Steve Gregory just put a blog up last night and one of the things he mentioned was the MJO. Either way we have to watch the W-Pac for a potentially strong WWB from this super typhoon and another one being forecast in the same area.

From Dr. Steve Gregory

Fig 5: The MJO (Madden-Julian Oscillation) has remained more robust than the GFS had forecast and is now moving across Africa towards the Indian Ocean. While all the models have been quite accurate with this cycle - both the EURO and UKMET models have been very accurate with the intensity forecast for the past week. Both models continue to forecast a moderately strong signal for the next week or so when all the models show a fairly rapid weakening and possible dissipation. The GFS forecast for the reappearance of a signal over the far eastern Pacific or western Atlantic is likely due to model noise, though a 'new' cycle is likely to develop towards the end of the month.
Well,we have Supertyphoon MEYSAK that was created by it.

yes we do.....but that's nowcasting....but we never hear from the hypsters like michael ventrice...eric blake....even local bloggers......hey....oh...the hype i created awhile back....didn't pan out...i was wrong...they just go on to hyping another topic...and when questioned....they just go on their merry way or diffuse the subject..

case in point.....WSI announced last fall that this year would see quite the reduction of snowfall....in contrast excepting the west coast most parts of the country received average to above average snowfall totals....recently when asked a members reply was.....well.....did you see how low californias snowfall total is...and went on to the next subject
Quoting 91. NativeSun:

Is that a super El Nina or a Super Duper El Nina ?


What is an El Nina? Is that a transgendered El Nino?
Most recent RAMMB shots for Maysak; plenty of drier air around the storm but the core is still pretty well insulated at the moment; hopefully the weakening trend will continue as noted by Dr. M over the next 48:


Eric Blake @EricBlake12 · 2h 2 hours ago

MT from @NHC_Surge via @MargaretOrr: 80% of tropical Cyclone deaths are due to water, less than 10% due to wind.
Quoting 93. yoboi:



It could be that California faces many droughts.....It happens often....It would be the same as asking someone did you know it snowed during the winter in Canada....
Often on a scale of millennia. No, I think the California (and West Coast in general) drought will begin to get national coverage when food prices begin climbing steeply and people start looking for a scapegoat. May already be starting. I think the availability of the fruits and vegetables and wines of California is going to shrink dramatically in the next few years and the drought will become a story. Right now it's just an unfortunate hardship for Angelinos.
105. vis0
i know i know "vis0 thinks everything is connected to the ml-d he talks 'bout.**

To quote Dr. Masters, "This MJO event generated an unusually strong band of west-to-east blowing surface winds near the Equator (a "westerly wind burst") that helped spin up Maysak and the storm that preceded it, Tropical Storm Bavi. This "westerly wind burst" will be strengthened by the counter-clockwise flow of air around Maysak, increasing the chances of El Ni%uFFFDo lasting into the summer and potentially strengthening this fall."

i wonder if anyone remembers how have i've stated since 2010 on WxU blogs that when nature Trumps the ml-d whatever that outcome is, it has to be suddenly (as observed through physics/physical dimension manifestations) at least 2 times stronger, faster, longer lasting, quicker turning storms etc etc... (no its not an episode of The Six Million Dollar Man...BTW at today's market prices  we'd only see a head & a finger solving crimes **add Bionic sounds**) ...than what is expected as the ml-d is set to influence at almost 2 times the normal as to precipitation & winds so it attracts that towards the ml-d AOIs (innermost gets the outcome of that influence the most). Since those energies/weather has to be tapped from somewhere (sorry "patrap" not MAJeek) nature decides from where and in return we see those RRRR (Triple or quad Rs...no "pablosyn", not Ruffles has RRRidges), yet when nature decides "its go time" (to quote the great Izzy Mandelbaum) it should be with 2 times the force as that wall of energy held within / towards the ml-d's  "energy damn" that the ml-d creates is "suddenly" broken during but mainly after  a "2WkAnom" period as the next 50-59 day wxtrend begins, again IF NATURE CREATES  A WxTREND stronger than the ml-d's '2x" influence so any area just outside the ml-d AOIs all of a sudden goes from RRRr to 2 times the energy flow as to precipitation and/or winds, and what have you see of late as to the 2 times i posted to observe world wide weather after the "2WkAnoms" specifically thethe Pacific? To boot during minimums of ENSO & Cyclonic activities break all time MJOs & wind speeds records but then again i'm nuts.

**If a readers thinks that its impossible for something in a small area of the world to affect much of the world's weather and that thought is based on that you no nothing of me or my inventions, that's okay. IF on the other hand the thought of "its impossible" is based on that the reader thinks that there is no way that something centered in NYc can affect weather any further than oh lets say 200 miles. Then what is causing so much attention from the layman to the scientific community named "el Nio", is that not a smaller (from the area off Peru when El Nio begins in the "expected manner" than the ml-d coverage area, and ENSO areas eventually affect weather AROUND THE WORLD.

As mention in the last Dr. Masters blogbyte i end my Galacsic crap this weekend as to posting it on any other blogs except for my own (stop cheering so loudly Taz).  So "Injoy" these last few SciFic or SciFac comments.

Also if i move my last active blog elsewhere i'll leave links on my last active blog.
i'm not leaving WxU (Taz:: B00000000x%u221E!) just turning into a regular member (yes, eating prunes, ) and posting remarks directly related to the blog or other members comments, copy n pasting warnings if i see none, posting 720 hr model runs, recipes for weather related foods, trying to figure out formulas intelligent members post w/o "wikigoogling" them, remembering when "wikki wkki wikki" was the sound/words of a rap not a child asking Mom to search something.

Back to observing weather and letting those in harms way know of whats coming
.  Keep helping your fellow human (anyone within this planet, in due time other complex beings of other planets) as that is a form evolving. Always QUESTION what you do not understand and learn from GOOD STUDIES that have internal and external validity NOT created to further present a favoured opinion "ON ANY SIDE" but created to open new doors in learning therefore building a vast base of knowledge for all to use.
Quoting 102. weathermanwannabe:

Most recent RAMMB shots for Maysak; plenty of drier air around the storm but the core is still pretty well insulated at the moment; hopefully the weakening trend will continue as noted by Dr. M over the next 48:






Colonia's currently southwest of the eye. That's the capital of Yap State.
The GFS is not forecasting any substantial westerly wind burst across the equatorial West Pacific over the next week. Maysak is likely too far north to create such.

Eric Blake is speaking at the National Hurricane Conference in ATL today.
Storms cranking up across the south Link
Quoting 101. Dakster:



What is an El Nina? Is that a transgendered El Nino?
Must be the female version, kind of like the male version of La Nina which is La Nino. Reminds me of the old pokemon games where they had the male Nidoran and the female Nidoran. Kori knows what I'm talking about.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
The latest on Maysak

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 311846
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK (04W) INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 19A
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP042015
500 AM CHST WED APR 1 2015

...EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK NEARING YAP...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FAIS IN YAP STATE. TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS ARE NO LONGER OCCURRING ON FAIS. HOWEVER...DAMAGING
WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE REMAIN POSSIBLE FOR THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR ULITHI IN YAP STATE. THE EYE
OF MAYSAK BRIEFLY PASSED OVER ULITHI AROUND MIDNIGHT. MAYSAK IS
MOVING AWAY AND TYPHOON FORCE WINDS ARE WINDING DOWN. HOWEVER...
DAMAGING TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE REMAIN
POSSIBLE UNTIL AROUND SUNRISE.

A TYPHOON WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR YAP ISLAND IN YAP STATE.
DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 MPH OR MORE ARE ALREADY OCCURRING AND TYPHOON
FORCE WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE ARE LIKELY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY
IN THE NORTHERN YAP WATERS.

SUMMARY OF 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.3N 138.7E

ABOUT 130 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF FAIS
ABOUT 65 MILES WEST-NORTHWEST OF ULITHI
ABOUT 70 MILES NORTHEAST OF YAP AND
ABOUT 465 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...160 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 14 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 400 AM CHST...1800 UTC...THE EYE OF SUPER TYPHOON MAYSAK WAS
LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 10.3 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 138.7
EAST...MOVING WEST AT 14 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO TURN BACK
TOWARD THE NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN FORWARD SPEED FOR THE
NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THE LATEST FORECAST TRACK TAKES THE EYE OF
MAYSAK ABOUT 70 MILES NORTH OF YAP TODAY AROUND SUNRISE.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN 160 MPH. MAYSAK IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN A SUPER TYPHOON DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS.

TYPHOON FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 45 MILES FROM THE CENTER.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 150 MILES NORTH OF
THE CENTER AND 125 MILES SOUTH OF THE CENTER.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 800 AM...FOLLOWED BY AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY AT 1100 AM.

$$

MCELROY
Quoting 56. stoormfury:

looking at the current SST near the Peruvian coast appears to be cooling

The left overs from PAM moved south and then east and turned into quite a large extratropical storm that brought 20 foot swells to the coast last week. All of central America southward were affected by these swells. They are still receiving swell from the leftovers from Pam as far north as northern Cal right now...
This coupled with offshore flow in Peru has created some upwelling and hence the colder water.

Link
FORMER CYCLONE PAM GOES ET TO BECOME #PBOTW Purple blob of the week...


114. flsky
Very Egyptian....

Quoting 34. Torito:

That eye though.


Quoting 93. yoboi:



It could be that California faces many droughts.....It happens often....It would be the same as asking someone did you know it snowed during the winter in Canada....

Good. In the (unthinkable, because >400ppm) event snow keeps lying around in Canada during four succesive summers you will be silent because there's nothing special going on with snow in Canada.
Quoting 101. Dakster:



What is an El Nina? Is that a transgendered El Nino?