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Category 5 Phailin Nears India; Category 3 Nari Hits the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 9:35 PM GMT on October 11, 2013

Extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone Phailin has maintained Category 5 strength for six hours, and is expected to remain a Category 5 storm until it is just a few hours from landfall on the northeast coast of India on the Bay of Bengal, according to the 5 pm EDT Friday advisory from the Joint Typhoon Warning Center. Phailin put on a phenomenal burst of rapid intensification on Thursday, going from a tropical storm with 65 mph winds to a top-end Category 4 storm with 155 mph winds in just 24 hours, and is now at peak strength of 160 mph, tying it with Super Typhoon Usagi as Earth's strongest tropical cyclone of 2013. Satellite images show that Phailin maintained very intense thunderstorms with cold cloud tops in its eyewall, with the 5 pm EDT Friday satellite estimate of Phailin's central pressure at 911 mb. This makes Phailin equal in strength to the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone, which killed 9,658 people in India's Odisha province. Radar out of Visakhapanam, India shows that heavy rains from the outer bands of Phailin are already affecting the coast, and these bands were bringing rainfall rates of over an inch per hour, as estimated by microwave data from 18 UTC Friday. Phailin is over ocean waters that have warmed since Thursday, and are now 29 - 30°C. These warm waters extend to a lesser depth than before, and ocean heat content has dropped to a moderate 20 - 40 kJ/cm^2. Wind shear remains low, 5 - 10 knots, and Phailin has strong upper-level outflow, thanks to an anticyclone positioned in the upper atmosphere over the cyclone.


Figure 1. Microwave satellite image overlaid on an infrared satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Phailin, taken at approximately 18 UTC on October 11, 2013. At the time, Phailin was a Category 5 storm with winds of 160 mph. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterey.

Forecast for Phailin
Phailin is likely to be the strongest tropical cyclone to affect India in fourteen years, since the great 1999 Odisha Cyclone. The models are in tight agreement that Phailin will make landfall in Northeast India on Saturday between 09 - 15 UTC about 100 miles to the southwest of where the 1999 cyclone hit. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) is predicting that a storm surge of up to 3.5 meters (eleven feet) will hit along a swath a coast to the right of where the center makes landfall. I expect that this is an underestimate, since the 1999 Odisha Cyclone brought a storm surge of 5.9 meters (19 feet) to the coast, and Phailin is larger in areal extent and just as strong. The region of the coast where Phailin is expected to hit is not as low-lying, though, which should keep the death toll due to storm surge much lower compared to the 1999 Odisha Cyclone, where more than 70% of the deaths occurred due to the storm surge. Deforestation of the coastal mangroves in the storm surge zone was associated with increased death toll in that storm, according to Das and Vincent (2009), who concluded, "villages with wider mangroves between them and the coast experienced significantly fewer deaths than ones with narrower or no mangroves.". I expect that Phailin will weaken slightly before hitting the coast, due to interaction with land, and hit as a Category 4 storm with winds of 145 - 155 mph. The 1999 Odisha Cyclone hit land with top winds of 155 mph.


Figure 2. Elevation of the Odisha region of India, with the track of the 1999 Odisha cyclone and forecast track of Phailin overlaid. Phailin is predicted to hit a region of the coast about 100 miles to the southwest of where the 1999 cyclone hit. The coast is not as low-lying to the southwest, which should result in a lower storm surge death toll. The greatest storm surge occurs along the coast to the right of where the center crosses. Image credit: http://www.globalwarmingart.com

Phailin's heavy rains will be capable of causing very destructive flooding; the 00Z Friday rainfall forecast from the HWRF model (Figure 3) calls for a significant swath of 8 - 16" of rain along the path of Phailin inland. Rains from the 1999 Odisha cyclone killed more than 2,000 people in the town of Padmapur, located more than 150 miles from the coast. Deforestation was cited as a contributing cause to these destructive floods that killed 36% of the town's population.


Figure 3. The 00Z Friday rainfall forecast from the HWRF model calls for a significant swath of 8 - 16" of rain along the path of Phailin inland. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/GFDL.

India's tropical cyclone history
There is good reason to be concerned when a major tropical cyclone forms in the Bay of Bengal. Twenty-six of the thirty-five deadliest tropical cyclones in world history have been Bay of Bengal storms. During the past two centuries, 42% of Earth's tropical cyclone-associated deaths have occurred in Bangladesh, and 27% have occurred in India (Nicholls et al., 1995.) Wunderground's weather historian Christopher C. Burt has a detailed post on India's tropical cyclone history.

References
Kalsi, S.R., N. Jayanthi N, and S.K. Roy Bhowmik, 2004, "A Review of Different Storm Surge Models and Estimated Storm Surge Height in Respect of Orissa Supercyclonic Storm of 29 October, 1999," New Delhi: Indian Meteorological Department.

Nicholls, R.J.N., N. Mimura, J.C. Topping, 1995, "Climate change in south and south-east Asia: some implications for coastal areas," J Glob Environ Eng 1995;1:137–54.

Das, S., and J.R. Vincent, 2009, "Mangroves protected villages and reduced death toll during Indian super cyclone", Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A. 2009 May 5; 106(18): 7357–7360. Published online 2009 April 20. doi: 10.1073/pnas.0810440106


Figure 4. Radar image of Typhoon Nari over Luzon Island in the Philippines, taken at 12:53 am local time on October 12, 2013. Image credit: DOST - Project NOAH

Major Typhoon Nari hits the Philippines
Typhoon Nari hit the main Philippine island of Luzon Friday night local time as a Category 3 typhoon with 115 mph winds. The core of the storm passed about 80 miles north of the capital of Manila, and the storm dumped torrential rains in excess of ten inches to the northeast of Manilla, according to satellite estimates. Passage over Luzon weakened Nari, and the typhoon is now emerging into the South China Sea between the Philippines and Vietnam as a Category 2 storm with 105 mph winds. Nari has about two days over water to re-intensify before making a second landfall in Vietnam around 18 UTC on Monday. The 5 pm EDT Friday Joint Typhoon Warning Center advisory predicts that Nari will re-intensify to 110 mph winds, just below Category 3 strength.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Hi everyone. I hope you are each doing well. It has been a very long time since I've posted on the blog. That said, I wanted to provide a link to live TV coverage in India. Thoughts and most heartfelt prayers for all in harms way!

Link

Note: This station has reporters positioned on the coast in the areas where landfall is anticipated.
Quoting 497. VR46L:
Thankfully a little weaker but I guess when a storm is this big and intense whats a few degrees less in cloud tops ...



The winds are decreasing because of an eyewall replacement cycle, which is common in intense hurricanes. All that's going to do is increase the wind field (think Ike or Isaac) and add to the water worries though, as 1900hurricane pointed out before me.
Not to take the comments from the horrific cyclone about to approach India, wish blessings for the people, but it looks to me like the Lesser Antilles / Windward islands are shortly going to have our own hoopla of worries....

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Atlant icSatellite.aspx

Could just be me, I am not an educated meteorologist, but I see a monster in the making...could be wrong.

A late kick to a quiet season.
Quoting 503. bajelayman2:
Not to take the comments from the horrific cyclone about to approach India, wish blessings for the people, but it looks to me like the Lesser Antilles / Windward islands are shortly going to have our own hoopla of worries....

http://www.intellicast.com/Storm/Hurricane/Atlant icSatellite.aspx

Could just be me, I am not an educated meteorologist, but I see a monster in the making...could be wrong.

A late kick to a quiet season.


Are you talking about 98L?
507. MPI88
At the moment of writing tide-gauge readings about 200 kilometers north-east of the landfall area (Paradeep) show an increased surface elevation of about 1 meter.

There are no tide-gauges closer to the designated landfall area, however they would probably fail anyway.
TXNT26 KNES 120624
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (98L)

B. 12/0600Z

C. 10.2N

D. 41.3W

E. FIVE/MET-10

F. T1.5/1.5/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...POSITION BASED ON MID LEVEL TURNING AS IT IS UNCLEAR WHETHER
A TRUE LLCC EXISTS. BANDING MEASURING 0.3 YIELDS A DT OF 1.5. MET AND
PT ARE 1.5. FT IS BASED ON MET.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
12/0830 UTC 18.5N 85.6E T5.5/6.5 PHAILIN
Good morning to the blog and all the best to India with imminent landfall of Phailin:

Cyclone Phailin has led to big waves at the beaches in Vizag. And though the weather has changed, it hasn't stopped people from coming to the beaches and have a good time.
NDTV report from earlier.
‘Santi’ exits PH



MANILA, Philippines – Typhoon “Santi” careened through Luzon “like a spinning top” after it made landfall Friday night, moving faster than expected and out into the West Philippine Sea by Saturday, the state weather bureau said.
The Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (Pagasa) lifted public storm warnings in all provinces except Zambales and Bataan, which remained under Signal No. 1, indicating wind speeds of 30-60 kilometers per hour, as of mid-Saturday.
The typhoon struck land before midnight Friday in Aurora and cut through Central Luzon at speed of 22 kph, a speed much faster than earlier expected, Pagasa forecaster Gladys Saludes said.
“The typhoon interacted with the mountain ranges of Aurora. The effect was like a spinning top that was bouncing from one (place) to the next. That was the reason it left the Luzon landmass earlier than expected,” she added.
As of 11 a.m. Saturday, the eye of the typhoon was already out at sea, some 100 kilometers west of Iba, Zambales, Pagasa said.
As it passed, the storm had gusts of up to 180 kph and dumped heavy to torrential rain over large areas of Luzon, prompting Pagasa to issue consecutive rainfall warnings in several provinces in Central and Southern Luzon.
By midday, however, Santi had lost some of its strength, packing peak sustained winds of 120 kph near the center and and gusts of up to 150 kph. On Friday night, its sustained wind velocity was 150 kph with gusts of up to 180 kph.
The typhoon was forecast to move westward at 19 kph and to be out of the Philippine area of responsibility by Sunday morning.
But sea travel remains risky off the coasts of Luzon as well as in the Visayas, Pagasa said in an advisory.
Saludes said a tropical depression brewing in the Pacific Ocean had developed into a storm, and was expected to enter the Philippine area of responsibility by Monday morning.
The storm is not expected to make landfall anywhere in the country, and will likely only graze the northern parts as it heads for Japan, she said.


5 killed, 2.1M without power as ‘Santi’ slams Luzon



MANILA, Philippines – Five people were killed and more than two million are without electricity as typhoon “Santi” (international codename: Nari) pummelled Luzon.
In a press conference on Saturday, National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council spokesman Major Rey Balido said five were killed from the typhoon, including a policeman who was waiting for deployment in Pampanga. He was killed in a landslide.
One was also killed from electrocution, while three were killed from fallen trees in Nueva Ecija.
Four were reported missing: Three fishermen from Catanduanes and one from Dingalan in Aurora.
Power outages were also reported in Aglipay, Quirino province, Alfonso Castaneda, Dupax del Norte, Dupax del Sur and Aritao of Nueva Vizcaya; San Agustin and Jones of Isabela province and Dingalan in Aurora and in 37 towns and cities across Central Luzon.
Road and utility crews were out clearing roads and restoring power, but it could take up to two days before electricity is restored and major highways are reopened to traffic, Nigel Lontoc, a disaster official for the region, told Agence France-Presse by telephone.
A total of 2.1 million people live in the areas now without electricity, according to official population figures.
NDRRMC also reported that 2,302 persons pre-emptively evacuated in 57 villages in the regions of Cagayan and Central Luzon.
About 3,000 people moved into government-run shelters before the typhoon struck amid warnings of flooding and landslides, Lontoc said.
Seventeen villages in Bulacan, a province that lies next to Manila, were under up to 1.2 meters (four feet) of floodwater, he added.
Balido and Lontoc said local officials were tallying the number of damaged homes, many of which had their roofing blown off.
The typhoon spared the capital Manila, where the state weather service had warned on Friday about possible widespread flooding.
No major floods have been reported in the metropolis of more than 12 million people.
After sweeping across the Philippines, Santi blew out to the South China Sea with peak winds of 120 kilometers (75 miles) an hour, the state weather service said.
Projections from the Hong Kong Observatory had the storm gathering pace over the coming days as it heads towards the northeast coast of Vietnam.
The Philippines is hit by about 20 major storms or typhoons each year that occur mainly between June and October.
We are yet to hear from Family in Central Luzon that were more than likely severely impacted by Typhoon Nari. As soon as I hear anything, I will let everyone know.
Quoting 514. AussieStorm:
We are yet to hear from Family in Central Luzon that were more than likely severely impacted by Typhoon Nari. As soon as I hear anything, I will let everyone know.


Best wishes for your family, Aussi!
Live TV coverage from NDTV on Phailin (but infested with commercials ;)

Live NDTV blog

Another TV live report (CNN):
http://ibnlive.in.com/livetv/

Phailin fortunately considerably weakening just before landfall, according to satellites.

Meanwhile it looks like as Wipha just opened its eye. [Edit: Uh, next frame proves me wrong.]



BBL with that.

Visakhapatnam radar is showing the eye of Phailin.


16:16 (IST) Odisha Special Relief Commissioner PK Mahapatra tells NDTV:

- First priority to save lives
- Evacuation is over
- 400,000 people evacuated so far
- Most from Ganjam district
- There was some resistance
- We had force people in some areas
- Communication sets - satellite phones and radios distributed to key points
- We hope causalities will be much less than 1999
Look at that jaw-dropping spiral banding. Wraps around the cyclone. Clearly visible dry slots. Extends all the way to Bangladesh! What a stunning, awe-inspiring event. Hope things go as well as they can for those in its path.



(I saved this loop, but the .gif was too big to upload. This version should remain current).
Good Morning..7-day for the Tampa Bay area........
this one WAS supposed to go poof by now..and look...
well with 2 powerful hurricanes in the pacific region I guess i'll stay out for awhile..india and the filipino's will want to talk about these severe storms..prayers and good luck to you folks over there...
Lawl 60% shear chance?
Quoting 522. LargoFl:
this one WAS supposed to go poof by now..and look...

we we go watch out for invest 98L
I drive my car 100 mph and put hand out window. Really can't understand 150-160 mph winds. just saying wow, only real defense is to run....
Its so funny how nobody notices Invest 98L that much, it is getting upgraded every update once they find a center it might be a TD or TS, 98L is a creeper and who knows what will happen it.
Hmm, will be an interesting discussion later about Phailin, especially without recon readings ...

NDTV: 16:24 (IST) LS Rathore, Director General, IMD, says:

- Cyclone Phailin 90 kilometres away from Gopalpur, still very severe
- Expect heavy to very heavy rain fall in Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh
- Very, very heavy rain fall expected in Odisha, over 25 cm
- The cyclone will be severe for 6 hours after landfall
- It will be a depression after that
- The cyclone is advancing with a speed of 20km/hour towards Gopalpur
- You have been saying IMD is underestimating cyclone Phailin, why can't you say US is overestimating it
- We are estimating a sustained speed of 220kmph at landfall
- If the sustained speed goes beyond 220kmph it is called a super cyclone
- It is close to a super cyclone
- In 1999 cyclone - wind speed was 260km/hr and storm surge was six metres.
a friend drove through homestead right after andrew and he told me the area smelled like death. little critters that couldnt leave. i bet the same is true in india. i feel bad for all those little animals except the snakes
CaribBoy if we get a TD or TS i hope it will be coming your way!! We are going to prove the GFS wrong.
would you rather be in a cage with sharks or poisonous snakes? gimme the shark one
533. VR46L
Quoting 524. LargoFl:
well with 2 powerful hurricanes in the pacific region I guess i'll stay out for awhile..india and the filipino's will want to talk about these severe storms..prayers and good luck to you folks over there...


Don't be silly , I like your posts .. and I have only seen one Indian Post . Its just a bunch of mostly arm chair enthusiasts watching the storms ,no one on these boards can do much , except help the charities in those areas ..
Phailin: Trees felled, Posco villages fear worst

KENDRAPADA: While the country's eastern seaboard braces for the cyclone Phailin, the people in Jagatsinghpur district in Odisha are particularly in dread. Reason: the government felled more than 1.7 lakh trees and betel vines that would have acted as natural barriers against strong winds to facilitate building of the Posco steel plant.

-----

1 lakh = one hundred thousand
Down to 50%.


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS PRODUCING
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...THE SYSTEM LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. FURTHERMORE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.

&&
HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
Quoting 527. Autistic2:
I drive my car 100 mph and put hand out window. Really can't understand 150-160 mph winds. just saying wow, only real defense is to run....
well for me,if a 150mph hurricane was coming to MY area I and my family would be long gone to somewhere OUT of danger..there is no safe place in that kind of storm..and the aftermath would be horrible with the smell of death all around,homes gone,electric gone..drinking water gone,public services gone..everything flattened..no..not me,family is everything,all else can be rebuilt later on..safety for family is number one in my book.
As several were noting yesterday, Phailin is not making landfall as a Cat 5. In fact, it may perhaps "only" be a Cat 3; due to, among other factors, its interaction with land and its passage over less energetic waters, the storm's pressures have risen by a few dozen millibars since its peak yesterday, and winds have dropped by a few dozen knots. However, while that means the storm shouldn't be quite as deadly or destructive as it might have otherwise been, that's a relative term; Phailin is still a large and powerful cyclone striking a vulnerable population, so there will, unfortunately, be plenty of both to go around.
Quoting 529. barbamz:
Hmm, will be an interesting discussion later about Phailin, especially without recon readings ...

NDTV: 16:24 (IST) LS Rathore, Director General, IMD, says:

- Cyclone Phailin 90 kilometres away from Gopalpur, still very severe
- Expect heavy to very heavy rain fall in Odisha and North Andhra Pradesh
- Very, very heavy rain fall expected in Odisha, over 25 cm
- The cyclone will be severe for 6 hours after landfall
- It will be a depression after that
- The cyclone is advancing with a speed of 20km/hour towards Gopalpur
- You have been saying IMD is underestimating cyclone Phailin, why can't you say US is overestimating it
- We are estimating a sustained speed of 220kmph at landfall
- If the sustained speed goes beyond 220kmph it is called a super cyclone
- It is close to a super cyclone
- In 1999 cyclone - wind speed was 260km/hr and storm surge was six metres.


As I said numerous times, what the IMD has been doing is a crime against science and especially against the people living along the coast and affected areas. A serious debate should be forthcoming, and if they cannot handle this, then maybe the JTWC should take care of the basin... I am lost for words reading this arrogant comment by the head of the IMD, truly...
yeah i guess your right..they covered the storms last night.....
Looking good for texas they surely need the rains..
Visakhapatnam radar (see post #519) isn't updating any longer and is apparently down.
Edit: Another frame two hours later is just in.


This is why 98L ain't a TD yet still elongated from SW to NE.
98L...





Published Oct 12,2013
Typhoon Santi / Nari Crashes In Baler, Aurora Philippines 11th October 2013. For licensing please email James (at) EarthUncut (dot) tv Please feel free to share using YouTube's embed code, no unauthorised broadcast or ripping. Shot on GoPro Hero 3 Black. I intercepted the front right eyewall of typhoon Nari with iCyclone.com's Josh Morgerman as it smashed into the small town of Baler, Philippines.
Since the 1999 cyclone that hit the same part of India, how many inches has the ocean risen in he Bay of Bengal? Anyone know?
Amazing satellite images from Japan

Link
553. JRRP


TEXAS PLEASE PAY ATTENTION TO YOUR LOCAL WARNINGS...................Special Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-11 4-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-122100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-J ONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA...
HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANS ON...HAMLIN...
ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...
BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON
659 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC...ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
TO RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT LOW
WATER CROSSINGS AND BRIDGE UNDERPASSES. REMEMBER...TURN
AROUND...DON`T DROWN. IT ONLY TAKES ONE TO TWO FEET OF WATER TO
WASH YOUR VEHICLE OFF THE ROAD.

ALSO...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.

$$
stay alert Texas.............
Good morning all.

Felt the Earth move last night at 10:12 PM.
6.1 mag. really makes things jump around and sway.
Takes a while for the adrenalin to settle down after that.

Quoting 543. LargoFl:
DANG 94E might make it all the way to DC
Quoting 550. leftlink:
Since the 1999 cyclone that hit the same part of India, how many inches has the ocean risen in he Bay of Bengal? Anyone know?


Not much. Most scientist measure sea level rise in millimeters, if that what you asking?
Quoting 548. GeoffreyWPB:
98L...




Why do people think this is a tropical depression? Seriously, Even Gabby part 1 looked better than this!
Incredible...

globe
564. JRRP

Another frame from Visakhapatnam radar after a break of two hours was just added.

Live TV coverage was integrated on NDTV live blog.
They've reported that some people refused to follow the mandatory evacuations. Some fisher villages are already inundated.
Quoting 550. leftlink:
Since the 1999 cyclone that hit the same part of India, how many inches has the ocean risen in he Bay of Bengal? Anyone know?
Based on the best data I could find, the Indian Ocean is rising a bit over 12 cm per decade, which would extrapolate out to roughly 17-18 cm (0.7") since 1999. That may not seem like much, but that's over an area of hundreds of thousands of square kilometers. IOW, that's a whole lot more water...
Quoting 557. pottery:
Good morning all.

Felt the Earth move last night at 10:12 PM.
6.1 mag. really makes things jump around and sway.
Takes a while for the adrenalin to settle down after that.

Glad you are O.K....6.1 is rather nasty...Damage reports..?
Quoting 537. Neapolitan:
As several were noting yesterday, Phailin is not making landfall as a Cat 5. In fact, it may perhaps "only" be a Cat 3;


Katrina was 'only' a Cat 3 at landfall. But brought Cat 5 surge. I imagine the same will happen with Phailin.
Quoting 536. LargoFl:
well for me,if a 150mph hurricane was coming to MY area I and my family would be long gone to somewhere OUT of danger..there is no safe place in that kind of storm..and the aftermath would be horrible with the smell of death all around,homes gone,electric gone..drinking water gone,public services gone..everything flattened..no..not me,family is everything,all else can be rebuilt later on..safety for family is number one in my book.
Horrible is right. Some here know what that is like.
Bye bye 98L :-(
I don't know how the models could verity....
Quoting 550. leftlink:
Since the 1999 cyclone that hit the same part of India, how many inches has the ocean risen in he Bay of Bengal? Anyone know?


0-.25" (0-.0625 cm)
574. IKE

Quoting CaribBoy:
Bye bye 98L :-(
And bye-bye season.

Seven weeks from today and it's over.
amazing sunrises and sunsets reported worldwide could this be due to the cat 5?
18:51 (IST) Cyclone Phailin now 20 kilometres off Gopalpur in Odisha.
Quoting 573. iTrollTheTrolls:


0-.25" (0-.0625 cm)
Source?
578. DFWjc
Quoting 555. LargoFl:


I can only wish for some more rain here :)
579. VR46L
Quoting 577. Neapolitan:
Source?


:)
18:59 (IST) Cyclone Phailin to hit Odisha coast any time now
Good news for the people in India as this cyclone weakened fast before coming ashore. Winds probably were about 110 at landfall.
Looking at the latest satellite loop, 98L is FINISHED! R.I.P. 98L
Quoting 557. pottery:
Good morning all.

Felt the Earth move last night at 10:12 PM.
6.1 mag. really makes things jump around and sway.
Takes a while for the adrenalin to settle down after that.


I'll bet! Glad you're okay.
Quoting 575. islander101010:
amazing sunrises and sunsets reported worldwide could this be due to the cat 5?

Source for the "amazing sunrises and sunsets?" (I'm not disputing it, I just haven't heard about it and would like to read about it.)
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE AREA OF CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT MIDWAY BETWEEN
THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS ASSOCIATED WITH
AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. ALTHOUGH THIS LOW IS PRODUCING
WINDS TO NEAR TROPICAL STORM FORCE...THE SYSTEM LACKS A
WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION CENTER. FURTHERMORE...THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS DECREASED AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE GRADUALLY BECOMING
LESS CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE.
invest 98L DOWN TO 50%
587. SLU
Quoting 571. CaribBoy:
Bye bye 98L :-(


All season long was dry air and now that a "storm" finally gets its act together with abundant moisture, there comes the shear. Someone, please make this season just end and put us out of our misery.

588. SLU
Welcome to India

589. NCstu
Quoting 582. StormTrackerScott:
Good news for the people in India as this cyclone weakened fast before coming ashore. Winds probably were about 110 at landfall.


I've been hearing 150. But did it weaken or did the eyewall collapse? Not exactly the same thing
AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 2 min
6.4-magnitude earthquake occurred in Mediterranean Sea, 172 miles south of Athens, Greece, according to EMSC


I think the eye is on land now.
Quoting 590. Luisport:
AccuWeather.com %u200F@breakingweather 2 min
6.4-magnitude earthquake occurred in Mediterranean Sea, 172 miles south of Athens, Greece, according to EMSC



Uhh, that's bad. 30km off the west coast of Crete (Platanos, where I've spent my vacations three years ago). Depth 36,2km according to USGS (not too shallow fortunately). EMSC has it even much deeper.

Details on earthquake report.
Quoting 587. SLU:


All season long was dry air and now that a "storm" finally gets its act together with abundant moisture, there comes the shear. Someone, please make this season just end and put us out of our misery.



That is another weak low to the SE of 98L but will go thru the same fate of 2013 conditions. Even thou 98L didn't develop it was interesting to follow being the time of season we are.
birthmark dont you have friends on facebk? i only have a few but they are worldwide. all posting beautiful sunrises and sunsets what about your report? amazing here too
Quoting 590. Luisport:

AccuWeather.com ‏@breakingweather 2 min
6.4-magnitude earthquake occurred in Mediterranean Sea, 172 miles south of Athens, Greece, according to EMSC




Automatic GEOFON Global Seismic Monitor
Quoting 557. Pottery:

Glad you are safe.  What is your location?
598. SLU
Quoting 593. Tropicsweatherpr:


That is another weak low to the SE of 98L but will go thru the same fate of 2013 conditions. Even thou 98L didn't develop it was interesting to follow being the time of season we are.


I never expected it to develop from day one but this season has been really disappointing at least from an entertainment standpoint.
First, my thoughts and prayers to those in India. That is a monster of a storm hitting them.

Here, it's 73 degrees with a dew point of 73, 100% humidity. We're supposed to be getting rain on and off for the next week. My garden is beginning to look nice again with rain watering it.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, zucchini and yellow squash pancakes, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, French Toast Roll-Ups, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesey grits, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
Quoting 571. CaribBoy:
Bye bye 98L :-(
You may be premature, I think everyone should hold off until StormTrackerScott has had time to analyze the situation.
Quoting 599. aislinnpaps:
First, my thoughts and prayers to those in India. That is a monster of a storm hitting them.

Here, it's 73 degrees with a dew point of 73, 100% humidity. We're supposed to be getting rain on and off for the next week. My garden is beginning to look nice again with rain watering it.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: berry breakfast pizza, zucchini and yellow squash pancakes, Cinnamon French Toast Casserole, French Toast Roll-Ups, Cheesecake Burritos with strawberry topping, Apple slices dipped in pancake batter & cooked on the griddle with cinnamon & nutmeg, baked egg in an avocado with and without crumbled bacon, andouille sausage and shrimp over cheesey grits, omelets with cheese, mushrooms, peppers and dice ham or bacon, Regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!

Oh my. Sounds good.
I had an omelette from Denny's last night.
Really good.
Had smoky cheese mix, queso, bacon, sauasage (with spices) and prime rib, with spinach and jalopenos.
Well, following the coverage with live reports from the IMD-Center (Indian weather service) on NDTV, there seems to be a battle between US and Indian satellites as well, concerning the question whether Phailin has already made landfall or not. The Indians say: no, the eye has stalled right off the coast. Highest winds earlier: 220km/h, now down to 200km/h.

Well after all the doom post about Phailin (failing) making landfall as a cat 5 or upper end cat 4 it weakened considerably while moving towards land.You gotta love those eye wall replacement cycles and land friction :)
Responding to a few comments made yesterday and again earlier today:

People here are certainly free to voice their opinions. But to repeatedly demand the heads of India's national weather service because they believe the IMD has "criminally" underestimated Phailin is, in my opinion, an unfair and uninformed knee-jerk reaction of the type we often see when faced with large-scale disaster. After all, it's basic human nature to want to lash out and assign blame and make someone--anyone--pay for what's happening, which is, at the moment, that people half a world away are dying; people half a world away are losing their families, their homes, their ways of life. But once one matures enough to learn that other nations and cultures can't be forced to do things the same way we in America do (and why would they?), that impulse to lash out diminishes, and what's left is compassion and the urge to help, not grab the pitchforks and torches and seek some sort of mob rule vengeance. And as for the head of the IMD being "arrogant"? Well, that's a term that I would use to describe calling for the U.S. to take over the IMD's official duties in the belief that India itself can't handle things...

(Note: I'm not in any way implying that the IMD has done a perfect job with Phailin. But even incompetence, if that's what it is, is a far cry from punishable "criminal" behavior.)
Quoting 517. barbamz:

Phailin fortunately considerably weakening just before landfall, according to satellites.

The cloud tops actually looked like they got colder, but yes the eye collapsed.
Quoting tedauxie:
Quoting 557. Pottery:

Glad you are safe.  What is your location?


Yeah, everything is fine.
No reports of any damage.
Epicenter was just west of here, off the coast of Venezuela. I am in central Trinidad, approx 11n 61w.
Seems to have been felt as far north as St. Lucia.
607. NCstu
I heard that many people in the fishing communities refused to evacuate and those areas are now underwater. The wind speeds are a weak indicator of what the death and damage toll will be. If the storm surge is 23 ft instead of 15 ft that will be a tremendous difference. I fear that most lives will be lost inland. There is no doubt that some areas will get 3 ft. of rain. Ultimately a lot of that water will end up in the same place and anyone who is there will be washed away.
Typhoon 02B

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 OCT 2013 Time : 133000 UTC
Lat : 18:51:16 N Lon : 85:11:57 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 946.9mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.1 4.5

Center Temp : -71.1C Cloud Region Temp : -69.2C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 111km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.9 degrees


7 people reported dead in Odisha. Electric Poles have been uprooted in Srikakulum. Phailin less than 40 km offshore of Golpapur.

Live Coverage on Phailin.
The weakening flag for the Cyclone has been ON since 9pm CDT last evening.

CIMMS ADT
611. beell
Wow, it looks like the IMD gets credit for nailin' Phaillin.

;-)
Quoting 587. SLU:


All season long was dry air and now that a "storm" finally gets its act together with abundant moisture, there comes the shear. Someone, please make this season just end and put us out of our misery.



It makes me so angry!
Quoting 563. Neapolitan:
Incredible...

globe
It's strange to wonder why the Western Hemisphere is so quiet, given the block buster season that they're having on the opposite side of the planet.

This should narrow down the "why's" a bit.
Quoting 600. Llamaluvr:
You may be premature, I think everyone should hold off until StormTrackerScott has had time to analyze the situation.


lol
Japan may be threatened direct or have a close call with Typhoon Wipha.

2013 Atlantic Basin - What is the reason, for this wierd hurricane season! Bet everyone is wondering why this season is so lackluster. My guess, it seems obvious by now .... Dry Air, Dry Air, Dry Air, and way too many ULLs de-coupling the systems, and chopping the heads off the storms, producing too much wind shear in the upper and mid levels of the atmosphere. And, we had a persistant trough over the eastern USA, dipping down into the Gulf and Florida. What a rainy, miserable summer we had in the Southeast! We kept getting storms and fronts coming down from the north, all summer long!

Yes, it would be more interesting to see this season end like the 1994 hurricane season, when such a slow season cranked out 2 November hurricanes! You never know. That would make it even more unusual.

Hope the Indian Cyclone Phaillin did weaken before hitting the coast. Yes, Katrina hit us as a CAT3, after being a CAT5! What a surprise, I have never witnessed such a storm surge damage like that and hope to never see another one!!! The winds were still unbelievable. Shell-Shocking what a storm like that one did to us, along the middle Gulf Coast.
Hey guys I'm a little surprised that 98L hasn't tightened up that circulation and we don't have TS Lorenzo but it's 2013 and so far it's been a ton of surprises so yeah... anyway weak systems like this will continue to move further W and if it was to get stronger and become a TS and get strong it would go WNW-NW so with that said I think it will continue W until it like nears 55W-60W then I say it starts to move W-WNW after that this is all IMO of course
Quoting 582. StormTrackerScott:
Good news for the people in India as this cyclone weakened fast before coming ashore. Winds probably were about 110 at landfall.

The largest killer in severe tropical systems, storm surge, is correlated more strongly to system intensity prior to landfall.
Quoting 615. Tropicsweatherpr:
Japan may be threatened direct or have a close call with Typhoon Wipha.


Could just brush the coast, like for example make landfall and then go out to sea.
Quoting 578. DFWjc:


I can only wish for some more rain here :)
well starts sunday all the way thru tuesday..guess the whole state will get some of this..you have moisture being pulled from the gulf..you have the moisture from that pacific storm heading your way and..you have a front coming...so very good rain chances for you folks...good luck.
Quoting 613. OracleDeAtlantis:
It's strange to wonder why the Western Hemisphere is so quiet, given the block buster season that they're having on the opposite side of the planet.

This should narrow down the "why's" a bit.


The Pacific has been rather quiet this season as well, with the exception of the last couple of weeks.
Quoting Patrap:


Post 620.
I don't like that XTRAP model line at all at all !
XTRAP is the ONLY model that is 100% correct, for the next 10 minutes, you know ?
I think I better get in some more beers......

:):))
NARI track..........
626. txjac
Quoting 601. Articuno:

Oh my. Sounds good.
I had an omelette from Denny's last night.
Really good.
Had smoky cheese mix, queso, bacon, sauasage (with spices) and prime rib, with spinach and jalopenos.


Ahhhh ...to be young again and able to eat something like that! Thank goodness Ainsle has something more age appropriate for me

Prayers to those in India affected by the storm
i think that 98l will be torn apart if it keeps heading west. and if it turns ots it will strengthen and maybe a big system to track
629. SLU
Quoting LargoFl:
NARI track..........

I notice it says on that graphic that the current intensity is 999 knots.
Doesn't look more than 875 knots to me.

LOL
Quoting 631. pottery:

I notice it says on that graphic that the current intensity is 999 knots.
Doesn't look more then 875 knots to me.

LOL
yeah that was 4-5 hours old..
Quoting 618. ScottLincoln:

The largest killer in severe tropical systems, storm surge, is correlated more strongly to system intensity prior to landfall.
I wish more people in public would realize that storm surge is something to deal with even if the storm weaken from Category 5. Katrina is all I have to say...
Nam rainfall at 72 hours.................
so what does people think will happen to 98l?
a) fish
b) fizzle out
c) ts hitting conus
d) cat 1 hitting conus
e) cat 2 or bigger
636. txjac
Thank goodness I just got in from walking the pooches ..the rain is just now starting ...very light rain

Speaking of dogs, I do miss Dexter, Ann and Mikatnight
Quoting 609. GTstormChaserCaleb:
7 people reported dead in Odisha. Electric Poles have been uprooted in Srikakulum. Phailin less than 40 km offshore of Golpapur.

Live Coverage on Phailin.


Thanks for this.
Quoting 550. leftlink:
Since the 1999 cyclone that hit the same part of India, how many inches has the ocean risen in he Bay of Bengal? Anyone know?

http://sealevel.colorado.edu/content/regional-sea -level-time-series

Using this dataset, the trend line provides a sea level of 17.3mm (0.7in) in Fall 1999, and a sea level of 68.0mm (2.7in) for Fall 2013. Approximate sea level rise in the Bay of Bengal would be ~2.0in over that 14 year period. Contrast that to approximately ~1.7in rise for the entire globe, according to the same dataset.
Quoting 636. txjac:
Thank goodness I just got in from walking the pooches ..the rain is just now starting ...very light rain

Speaking of dogs, I do miss Dexter, Ann and Mikatnight
stay alert over there the next few days ok..................Special Weather Statement

------------------------------------------------- -------------------------------
SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN ANGELO TX
659 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

TXZ049-054-064>066-071>073-076>078-098-099-113-11 4-127-128-139-
140-154-155-168>170-122100-
FISHER-NOLAN-STERLING-COKE-RUNNELS-IRION-TOM GREEN-CONCHO-
CROCKETT-SCHLEICHER-SUTTON-HASKELL-THROCKMORTON-J ONES-SHACKELFORD-
TAYLOR-CALLAHAN-COLEMAN-BROWN-MCCULLOCH-SAN SABA-MENARD-KIMBLE-
MASON-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...ROTAN...ROBY...SWEETWATER...
STERLING CITY...ROBERT LEE...BRONTE...BALLINGER...WINTERS...
MERTZON...SAN ANGELO...EDEN...OZONA...ELDORADO...SONORA...
HASKELL...THROCKMORTON...WOODSON...STAMFORD...ANS ON...HAMLIN...
ALBANY...ABILENE...CLYDE...BAIRD...CROSS PLAINS...COLEMAN...
BROWNWOOD...BRADY...SAN SABA...MENARD...JUNCTION...MASON
659 AM CDT SAT OCT 12 2013

...A POTENTIALLY HEAVY RAINFALL EVENT IS POSSIBLE ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS FROM SUNDAY MORNING INTO EARLY THIS WEEK...

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL TO DEVELOP ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL TEXAS BEGINNING SUNDAY MORNING AND CONTINUING THROUGH
TUESDAY. WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 1 TO 3 INCHES ARE EXPECTED
WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE.

MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE PACIFIC...ALONG WITH LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE GULF...WILL COMBINE WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
TO RESULT IN THE POTENTIAL FOR PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL.

MINOR FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE IN URBAN AREAS...ESPECIALLY AT LOW
WATER CROSSINGS AND BRIDGE UNDERPASSES. REMEMBER...TURN
AROUND...DON`T DROWN. IT ONLY TAKES ONE TO TWO FEET OF WATER TO
WASH YOUR VEHICLE OFF THE ROAD.

ALSO...AN ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM OR TWO ARE POSSIBLE LATE
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING SOUTH OF INTERSTATE 20. THE MAIN
THREATS WILL BE LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

PLEASE STAY TUNED FOR FUTURE UPDATES TO THE FORECAST.

$$
Quoting 635. misspumkin:
so what does people think will happen to 98l?
a) fish
b) fizzle out
c) ts hitting conus
d) cat 1 hitting conus
e) cat 2 or bigger


B nothing
Quoting 640. Tazmanian:


B nothing
yeah i'm with you. im sure it will fall apart unless if it goes ots it will develop
643. txjac
Quoting 641. misspumkin:
yeah i'm with you. im sure it will fall apart unless if it goes ots it will develop


I was thinking the same thing ..either A or B
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
AND SOUTHWEST ARKANSAS...NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHWEST LOUISIANA...
SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA...AND EAST AND NORTHEAST TEXAS.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT...

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL OCCUR OVER THE
AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. THE CHANCE FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW...BUT STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL...HAIL...AND DEADLY LIGHTNING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS THROUGH
TONIGHT FOR SOME LOCATIONS COULD NEAR ONE TO TWO INCHES.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND AND THROUGH MUCH OF THE FIRST HALF OF THE NEXT WEEK
DUE TO THE PASSAGE OF A COUPLE OF COLD FRONTS AND UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES SPREADING ACROSS THE AREA. WITH SUCH A RICH SUPPLY OF
GULF AND PACIFIC MOISTURE...RAINFALL WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY AT
TIMES PROVIDING PONDING OF WATER IN STREETS...LOW LYING AND POOR
DRAINAGE AREAS. URBAN AND SMALL STREAMS IN HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ALSO
FILL TO MINOR OVERFLOW. ADDITIONAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF ONE TO
THREE INCHES COULD OCCUR FOR SOME LOCATIONS. STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS
WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING STRONG AND GUSTY WINDS...HAIL AND DEADLY
LIGHTNING. ORGANIZED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE LOW.

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...

ACTIVATION OF EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT PERSONNEL...AMATEUR RADIO
OPERATORS...AND STORM SPOTTERS WILL NOT BE NEEDED TODAY OR
TONIGHT.

$$
see Texas gets the rains and energy from this pacific storm..AND a front coming and the moisture being pulled in from the gulf..

Nari

Wipha

Phailin
Quoting 640. Tazmanian:


B nothing
Or "F" : impact Portugal
98L
meanwhile by me...a beautiful day............
Quoting 604. Neapolitan:
But once one matures enough to learn that other nations and cultures can't be forced to do things the same way we in America do (and why would they?), that impulse to lash out diminishes, and what's left is compassion and the urge to help, not grab the pitchforks and torches and seek some sort of mob rule vengeance.


Neapolitan, please excuse me taking an extract of your post, but I felt it was a very telling statement - and it does not just apply to America - applies to many of the so called "developed" nations all guilty of this self professed state of "perfection" to a greater or lesser degree.

Cultural Awareness is a very difficult state of mind to imbue or to teach - "Life's University" and real global travel are perhaps the best "Professors".

Some people will criticize Fishermen for not leaving boats - do these same people truly understand what subsistence living is really all about?

I am a member of a large international aid agency Logistics Emergency Response Unit (handling Air Operations) - a major element of post disaster Humanitarian Relief (in many parts of the World) is also being critically aware of the varied cultural norms that may play a part in the societies that you are there to help - a stupid example - but an example nonetheless was during Tunisia/Libya mission where crates of Potted Meats (from Russia) lay untouched because they had no official Halal markings on them.

I conclude by cautioning that "people who live in glass houses should not throw stones" - USA, tragically, does not have an unblemished record - I need only mention the run-up to and follow-on after Katrina!
Quoting 637. Torito:


Thanks for this.
You're welcome it really looks like based on satellite images and DVORAK intensity that the storm has weakened in terms of its wind speeds, which is some good news, but the storm surge and inland flooding will remain the same.

Up to 914 mb. from the 887 mb. we saw yesterday.

2013OCT12 120000 6.5 914.0 0.0 127.0 5.5 5.8 4.5 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -78.56 -69.16 UNIFRM N/A 34.7 18.91 -84.91 SPRL MET7 38.7

2013OCT12 123000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 19.12 -84.50 FCST MET7 38.4

Looks to have made landfall.

texas just might get a whole week of rain..fingers crossed for ya .......
Typhoon 02B Cyclone PHAILIN


UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 OCT 2013 Time : 140000 UTC
Lat : 19:01:14 N Lon : 85:15:20 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.7 / 949.1mb/107.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.0 4.4

Center Temp : -72.8C Cloud Region Temp : -69.6C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 111km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 39.0 degrees


Quoting 651. GTstormChaserCaleb:
You're welcome it really looks like based on satellite images and DVORAK intensity that the storm has weakened in terms of its wind speeds, which is some good news, but the storm surge and inland flooding will remain the same.

Up to 914 mb. from the 887 mb. we saw yesterday.

2013OCT12 120000 6.5 914.0 0.0 127.0 5.5 5.8 4.5 0.7T/6hr ON FLG -78.56 -69.16 UNIFRM N/A 34.7 18.91 -84.91 SPRL MET7 38.7

2013OCT12 123000 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A 99.50 99.50 LAND N/A N/A 19.12 -84.50 FCST MET7 38.4

Looks to have made landfall.



Yea, it looks like a strong cat 3 to weak cat 4 now. This "stalling before landfall", however, is not a good thing. India is being blasted by a system that refuses to move right now...
GFS rainfall for thursday.....................
Quoting 625. LargoFl:
NARI track..........


That's quite an ordiNARI track. Lol I had to
Quoting 656. Thrawst:


That's quite an ordiNARI track. Lol I had to
LOL ok you got that one LOL
a week long rain event for texas..might be some flooding concerns..here's GFS for friday....
659. txjac
Actually watching the CNN/IBN live stream it sounds like India has much in place to assist with the approaching hurricane. The military is in place, coast gaurd in place, shelters in place, food and water in place. They are very determined to make sure its citizens come through this.
Does any one know what the wind speed of Phailin when it made landfall?
662. txjac
Quoting 661. JustFlyingThru:
Does any one know what the wind speed of Phailin when it made landfall?


It hasnt made landfall yet and I dont know about the wind speed
Quoting 659. txjac:
Actually watching the CNN/IBN live stream it sounds like India has much in place to assist with the approaching hurricane. The military is in place, coast gaurd in place, shelters in place, food and water in place. They are very determined to make sure its citizens come through this.
I dunno, alot decided to ride it out..and when that 15-20ft wall of water comes in with real high winds..there's going to be death and destruction maybe on a vast scale..we'll see as the days go by and the news reports come in..real bad news coming im afraid.
Quoting 661. JustFlyingThru:
Does any one know what the wind speed of Phailin when it made landfall?
At 1200 UTC, 12 October 2013, PHAILIN (IO02) was located in the Bay of Bengal basin at 18.7°N and 85.3°E. The current intensity was 120 kt and the center was moving at 8 kt at a bearing of 315 degrees. The minimum central pressure was 933 mb.
Quoting 662. txjac:


It hasnt made landfall yet and I dont know about the wind speed


Oh, thought it had already. Thanks.
666. txjac
Quoting 665. whitewabit:


Oh, thought it had already. Thanks.


There are plenty on here that know more than me (probably everyone on here) but I thought that I read on the CNN/IBN that it hadnt made landfall ...just sitting off the coast.

Could someone please confirm so I dont give out bad info?

Thanks
The Cyclone made landfall a Hour ago as the coc crossed the coast.

Quoting 662. txjac:


It hasnt made landfall yet and I dont know about the wind speed
Are we sure about that, because most of the main convection has moved onshore, so that would mean the eye is on the edge of that convection and that there might have been some effects on the eye due to land friction.
669. txjac
Quoting 667. Patrap:
The Cyclone made landfall a Hour ago as the coc crossed the coast.



Thanks Pat and sorry whitewabit.
670. txjac
Quoting 668. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Are we sure about that, because most of the main convection has moved onshore, so that would mean the eye is on the edge of that convection and that there might have been some effects on the eye due to land friction.


Sorry about that ...I will make sure to not post in the future unless I am sure.

Apologies to all
Quoting 666. txjac:


There are plenty on here that know more than me (probably everyone on here) but I thought that I read on the CNN/IBN that it hadnt made landfall ...just sitting off the coast.

Could someone please confirm so I dont give out bad info?

Thanks


Confirmed, i see IBN just said about 9 km off the coast. :)
Quoting 670. txjac:


Sorry about that ...I will make sure to not post in the future unless I am sure.

Apologies to all
No need to, I am wondering if the streaming news coverage is lagging behind?
Quoting 672. GTstormChaserCaleb:
No need to, I am wondering if the streaming news coverage is lagging behind?


i dont know. They insist it is still offshore and satellite suggests it did make landfall...
Quoting 667. Patrap:
The Cyclone made landfall a Hour ago as the coc crossed the coast.



Yep, based on visible satellite it's obvious the system has made landfall.
Satellite graphics show Phailin fully on shore! What were its wind speed at landfall? Anyone know?
Quoting 654. Torito:


Yea, it looks like a strong cat 3 to weak cat 4 now. This "stalling before landfall", however, is not a good thing. India is being blasted by a system that refuses to move right now...

Phailin didn't really technically stall. The core was doing something called trochoidal oscillations within the moat of the storm. As Phailin was approaching landfall, the core was rounding the back leftside of the moat, preventing the core from moving inland for a few hours and giving the illusion of a stall.
679. txjac
Quoting 674. Torito:


i dont know. They insist it is still offshore and satellite suggests it did make landfall...


The time on their clock is 8:58 pm. Does that help? I dont know the time difference
Thanks for clearing that up Pat,
says latest image IF true eye hasnt come ashore yet...
Quoting 678. 1900hurricane:

Phailin didn't really technically stall. The core was doing something called trochoidal oscillations within the moat of the storm. As Phailin was approaching landfall, the core was rounding the back leftside of the moat, preventing the core from moving inland for a few hours and giving the illusion of a stall.
Something Hurricane Wilma experienced. It's basically the eye making a looping motion on approach to the coastline. Do you think that is caused because of the friction?
Quoting 679. txjac:


The time on their clock is 8:58 pm. Does that help? I dont know the time differnce


it is either 30 minutes off or they have one of those strange time zones...
WTIO31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 85.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 85.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.2N 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.8N 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.4N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 85.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE EYE FEATURE FOR TC 02B HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE COAST OF INDIA AND HAS RECENTLY BECOME
CLOUD FILLED. DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
HAS DECREASED AS INTERACTION WITH THE COAST HAS DISRUPTED THE
INFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WOBBLE IN THE
TRACK OF TC 02B AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 02B IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ONCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL
QUICKLY START TO DISSIPATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z,
130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN

Quoting 684. LargoFl:
WTIO31 PGTW 121500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 015//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
121200Z --- NEAR 18.7N 85.3E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 325 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7N 85.3E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
130000Z --- 20.2N 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
131200Z --- 21.8N 83.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 340 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 23.4N 82.5E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
121500Z POSITION NEAR 19.1N 85.0E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE 02B (PHAILIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 292 NM
SOUTHWEST OF KOLKATA, INDIA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE EYE FEATURE FOR TC 02B HAS BEEN RAPIDLY DETERIORATING AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS THE COAST OF INDIA AND HAS RECENTLY BECOME
CLOUD FILLED. DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM
HAS DECREASED AS INTERACTION WITH THE COAST HAS DISRUPTED THE
INFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THERE APPEARS TO BE A SLIGHT WOBBLE IN THE
TRACK OF TC 02B AS IT MOVES ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. TC 02B IS EXPECTED
TO MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE NEXT SIX HOURS AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE. ONCE THE SYSTEM IS OVER LAND, FRICTIONAL EFFECTS WILL
QUICKLY START TO DISSIPATE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
COMPLETE DISSIPATION IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE
HEIGHT AT 121200Z IS 42 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 122100Z, 130300Z,
130900Z AND 131500Z.//
NNNN



No landfall.^
Quoting 678. 1900hurricane:

Phailin didn't really technically stall. The core was doing something called trochoidal oscillations within the moat of the storm. As Phailin was approaching landfall, the core was rounding the back leftside of the moat, preventing the core from moving inland for a few hours and giving the illusion of a stall.
The nature of trochoidal oscillations can be seen in this animation. Think of the dot being the core location and the bigger circle being the entirety of the moat. This morning, the core has been in the downward position in the animation.

688. txjac
Quoting 683. Torito:


it is either 30 minutes off or they have one of those strange time zones...


They have strange time zones ...I have to call Mumbai sometimes and they have that weird half hour thing
684. LargoFl

WARNING POSITION:
121200Z

Thats from 7:12 am CDT

Over 3 hours ago
691. beell

Unenhanced IR
Quoting 681. LargoFl:
says latest image IF true eye hasnt come ashore yet...


That image has to be old. IR shows the center well onshore.
Quoting 667. Patrap:
The Cyclone made landfall a Hour ago as the coc crossed the coast.


Not so fast! (I'm watching College Gameday right now)



Less than an hour ago.
694. beell

Shortwave IR
Current Dvorak Image


15:01 UTC

Quoting 659. txjac:
Actually watching the CNN/IBN live stream it sounds like India has much in place to assist with the approaching hurricane. The military is in place, coast gaurd in place, shelters in place, food and water in place. They are very determined to make sure its citizens come through this.


And I have the distinct feeling that Mandatory Evacuation will be just that - enforced by the Military and Police - in similar vein to Cuba.

Good or bad - I do NOT want to get into any esoteric Human Rights discussions here - but IMHO if such measures save lives then GOOD! But, in the aftermath, the Government MUST then pay attention to re-development of livelihoods as necessary!
Quoting 691. beell:

Unenhanced IR


this one says eye is offshore too.



Maybe this will help^
Good Page here...Joint Typhon warning center..............Link
700. beell
Quoting 697. Torito:


this one says eye is offshore too.


Looks like coast is bisecting the center AOA 1430Z
India has a Large rescue capability with there Military, the 4th Largest on the Globe.

They will and have responded in a capable fashion as over 300K were evacuated from the Coastal areas yesterday and Thursday as well.
It's worth noting that SSD and RAMMB imagery don't show everything in the same place. One or both of them has to be off slightly.





The RAMMB image is at 1530Z and the SSD image should update to the same time lately.
another good Pacific Cyclone warning page..from Japan......Link
Quoting 697. Torito:


this one says eye is offshore too.


Look at the most recent satellite images and it is easy to see that the center has made landall.

Don't know why you're having trouble seeing that.
epic storm

“Late Friday, the United States Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center said that
Phailin had sustained winds of 161 m.p.h., with gusts reaching 196 m.p.h. —

“If it’s not a record, it’s really, really close,” a University of Miami
hurricane researcher, Brian McNoldy, told The Associated Press. “You really
don’t get storms stronger than this anywhere in the world ever. This is the top
of the barrel.”.


Link
Now it made landfall.

Link
and track for WIPHA................
I never fret over a landfall call as its just a moment in a storm landfall, as half the storm and all the surge is well Inland.

The weakening trend started around 9 pm CDT last night and may have been the saving grace for the impacted areas.


Most likely the last CIMSS ADT report.

Typhoon 02B

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 12 OCT 2013 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 19:03:00 N Lon : 85:03:10 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.5 / 953.4mb/102.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.0 4.8 4.6

Center Temp : -74.7C Cloud Region Temp : -71.7C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 111km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MET7
Satellite Viewing Angle : 38.9 degrees
Quoting 683. Torito:


it is either 30 minutes off or they have one of those strange time zones...


India is UTC + 5 1/2
Quoting 707. ColoradoBob1:
“Late Friday, the United States Navy’s Joint Typhoon Warning Center said that
Phailin had sustained winds of 161 m.p.h., with gusts reaching 196 m.p.h. —

“If it’s not a record, it’s really, really close,” a University of Miami
hurricane researcher, Brian McNoldy, told The Associated Press. “You really
don’t get storms stronger than this anywhere in the world ever. This is the top
of the barrel.”.


Link
geez can you imagine..this coming in to say..Miami omg
Quoting 700. beell:


Looks like coast is bisecting the center AOA 1430Z
That' estimate is pretty consistent to what I posted on twitter earlier.


Eye making landfall on visible satellite
Quoting 714. Sfloridacat5:
Eye making landfall on visible satellite


remember the sat graphics are 25 minutes old when posted ....
Quoting 715. whitewabit:


remember the sat graphics are 25 minutes old when posted ....
n

Yes, given that fact the eye(center)is even further inland.
Any live coverage?
718. beell
Quoting 713. 1900hurricane:
That' estimate is pretty consistent to what I posted on twitter earlier.




We are a fine bunch of weather geeks here. Most folks would not be able to generate this much discussion about this small of a margin of error.
Typhoon 25W (Wipha) is going to sideswipe that mess at Fukushima..............
Fukushima radiation levels hit 2-year high

Seawater just outside one of Japan’s damaged Fukushima Daiichi reactors registered radiation levels on Wednesday 13 times the previous day’s reading, the operator of the crippled nuclear plant said on Thursday.

Link

Quoting 717. drg0dOwnCountry:
Any live coverage?


Link

Link
It looks like Phailin made landfall as a low-end Category 4 equivalent, maybe a high-end Category 3 equivalent. Think Katrina though -- the system has already built up an incredible storm surge that will inundate coastal regions of Odisha. Torrential rainfall and very strong winds will lash the region through tomorrow.
Water Vapor
Pressure 946.7 mb at Gopalpur :

Quoting 719. ColoradoBob1:
Typhoon 25W (Wipha) is going to sideswipe that mess at Fukushima..............
Fukushima radiation levels hit 2-year high

Seawater just outside one of Japan’s damaged Fukushima Daiichi reactors registered radiation levels on Wednesday 13 times the previous day’s reading, the operator of the crippled nuclear plant said on Thursday.

Link


Maybe of interest to some bloggers?
A selection of photos of what the area around Fukushima looks like now 2 years later.
You will have to copy and paste the link to them.
Interesting how nature takes over, then everything will get an helping hand to collapsing, by a typhoon:-

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2013/10/broken_l ives_of_fukushima.html
726. txjac
Quoting 725. PlazaRed:

Maybe of interest to some bloggers?
A selection of photos of what the area around Fukushima looks like now 2 years later.
You will have to copy and paste the link to them.
Interesting how nature takes over, then everything will get an helping hand to collapsing, by a typhoon:-

http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2013/10/broken_l ives_of_fukushima.html


http://www.boston.com/bigpicture/2013/10/broken_l ives_of_fukushima.html

Copy the above to see or remove the space bolded above in the word lives
727. txjac
Pictures of India evacuations compliments of the Daily Mail

Link
"saving grace"
Quoting 727. txjac:
Pictures of India evacuations compliments of the Daily Mail

Link


Good photo gallery. Thank you for posting it.
Nice image - eye still well formed inland
Hi I hardly ever post but I am hoping you knowledgeable lot will be able to give me your opinions on whether or not 98L will impact my up and coming cruise. We leave to fly to puerto rico on thrusday 17th and then go on the cruise (20th oct) to st thomas, barbados, st lucia and st maarten. If this sort of question should not be asked on here then I apologies.
Sideglance: And here is the present cyclone over Europe. Of course nothing tropical and damaging ... I'm right in the COC (center of circulation) near Frankfurt, so no winds.




Source
Below is a great source for information about what is going on in the area impacted by Pahilin. Made landfall.

Times of India up to the minute information
Quoting 732. barbamz:
Sideglance: And here is the present cyclone over Europe. Of course nothing tropical and damaging ... I'm right in the COC of this circulation (near Frankfurt), so no winds.


That system is crazy over Europe. That thing is really wrapped up for a non-tropical low.
Quoting 731. fragileuk:
Hi I hardly ever post but I am hoping you knowledgeable lot will be able to give me your opinions on whether or not 98L will impact my up and coming cruise. We leave to fly to puerto rico on thrusday 17th and then go on the cruise (20th oct) to st thomas, barbados, st lucia and st maarten. If this sort of question should not be asked on here then I apologies.

There is tons of dry air and shear in 98L's path and it's already being effected by shear too so my guess is you will most likely be fine.
Quoting 731. fragileuk:
Hi I hardly ever post but I am hoping you knowledgeable lot will be able to give me your opinions on whether or not 98L will impact my up and coming cruise. We leave to fly to puerto rico on thrusday 17th and then go on the cruise (20th oct) to st thomas, barbados, st lucia and st maarten. If this sort of question should not be asked on here then I apologies.
Looks like you should hav eno issue with direct impacts. Mayb some swell left over, thats about it.
Quoting 731. fragileuk:
Hi I hardly ever post but I am hoping you knowledgeable lot will be able to give me your opinions on whether or not 98L will impact my up and coming cruise. We leave to fly to puerto rico on thrusday 17th and then go on the cruise (20th oct) to st thomas, barbados, st lucia and st maarten. If this sort of question should not be asked on here then I apologies.

You should be fine. Just a little rain at the worst.
Give me a P
Give me an O
Give me another O
Give me an F

Sums up the 2013 Atlantic Hurricane season

Quoting Articuno:

There is tons of shear in 98L's path so my guess is you will most likely be fine.
If the Atlantic shear forecast is correct, shear should go down in 24 hours...,
Yesterday we had a discussion on Tornadoes.
I graduated from Moore High School and used to live just S.W. of Oklahoma City.

Map showing tornadoes/tornado paths from 1962 - 2011. The map really shows how dangerous it is to live in central Oklahoma.
Storm cellar is a must.

Radar of Visakhapatnam is now confirming landfall.
Quoting 739. HuracanTaino:
If the Atlantic shear forecast is correct, shear should go down in 24 hours...,

There's still dry air.
743. beell


The beach at Gopalpur. Perhaps most of the town is above 20' msl. The exception would be along the rivers drainages that meet the sea-which don't appear to be densely populated. A fairly easy evac for authorities with good cooperation.
Quoting 741. barbamz:

Radar of Visakhapatnam is now confirming landfall.
Quoting 741. barbamz:

Radar of Visakhapatnam is now confirming landfall.


And that radar image is 50 minutes old.
746. SLU
Quoting 731. fragileuk:
Hi I hardly ever post but I am hoping you knowledgeable lot will be able to give me your opinions on whether or not 98L will impact my up and coming cruise. We leave to fly to puerto rico on thrusday 17th and then go on the cruise (20th oct) to st thomas, barbados, st lucia and st maarten. If this sort of question should not be asked on here then I apologies.


You will be just fine.
In NDTV-live coverage it was just mentioned that 700.000 people moved into safety because of Phailin - a record number.
But wait, MJO still coming?

Quoting 747. barbamz:
In NDTV-live coverage it was just mentioned that 700.000 people moved into safety because of Phailin - a record number.


Good. It deffinitly (I never spell that word right) shows that India is much better prepared this time.
Quoting fragileuk:
Hi I hardly ever post but I am hoping you knowledgeable lot will be able to give me your opinions on whether or not 98L will impact my up and coming cruise. We leave to fly to puerto rico on thrusday 17th and then go on the cruise (20th oct) to st thomas, barbados, st lucia and st maarten. If this sort of question should not be asked on here then I apologies.

Forecasts for 7-10 days out are nearly worthless when it come to track and intensity, so take that into account with what I'm going to write. 98L is not predicted to develop into more than tropical depression by any of the major models. It should get turned more northwest over the next few days and then north, following a path similar to Jerry of a few weeks ago. If that occurs, your cruise should have no problems. The best thing to do is keep in touch with your cruise company on a daily basis. The major companies have good tropical mets on staff, and they don't like to endanger customers or lose revenue. If 98L does develop and moves toward the Antilles, the company will probably reposition the ship to some place like Fort Lauderdale or New Orleans and change the itinerary to the Western Caribbean and Mexico. Between the cruise ship company and the the NHC, you'll get the best information on both the weather and the effects on your cruise.
752. NCstu
I heard this storm had sustained 175 mph winds about 12 hours before landfall. How is that consistent with any less than a 20 ft surge?
The 18z run of the GFS from October 5 was the first to pick up on the potential of Phailin...taking it down to 975 millibars. Every run got increasingly bullish. Good job to it.


B-O-R-I-N-G
Quoting 747. barbamz:
In NDTV-live coverage it was just mentioned that 700.000 people moved into safety because of Phailin - a record number.
that's good they were listening and watching
756. beell
Quoting 754. CaribBoy:
B-O-R-I-N-G


similar to
your posts.
;-)
02B/H/P/C2
Quoting Doppler22:


Good. It deffinitly (I never spell that word right) shows that India is much better prepared this time.

We'll see what happens after the news starts coming out now that the typhoon has made landfall. The government should have been able to do a better job of it, since the coast there is not as low lying and swampy as it is further north. However, the Indian government is both incompetent and corrupt when it comes to disaster response. I'll certainly hope it's better this time, but I'm not holding my breath.
It is on this day that Typhoon Tip attained its peak intensity. Winds reached 190 mph and the minimum barometric pressure as measured by recon bottomed out at 870 millibars, a worldwide record low that stands to this day.

invest 98L wind shear going up to 30 knows.
Quoting 759. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It is on this day that Typhoon Tip attained its peak intensity. Winds reached 190 mph and the minimum barometric pressure as measured by recon bottomed out at 870 millibars, a worldwide record low that stands to this day.



Didn't Wilma come close to that minimum pressure?
This season has been a huge disappointment. Looking forward to next season.
Quoting 759. TropicalAnalystwx13:
It is on this day that Typhoon Tip attained its peak intensity. Winds reached 190 mph and the minimum barometric pressure as measured by recon bottomed out at 870 millibars, a worldwide record low that stands to this day.

I always wondered what the gusts might have been.:)...And what it must have been like flying into that monster to take readings..Wow.
Quoting 763. PanhandleChuck:
This season has been a huge disappointment. Looking forward to next season.


Well, am el ninio could form....
Quoting 762. FunnelVortex:


Didn't Wilma come close to that minimum pressure?

Wilma bottomed out at 882 millibars, though there's a possibility it could have been a little lower. The recon plane left a few hours before peak intensity.
Quoting 763. PanhandleChuck:
This season has been a huge disappointment. Looking forward to next season.
I am glad this year is a disappointment.
Minimal pressure : 937.4 mb in Gopalpur .
Quoting 765. FunnelVortex:


Well, am el ninio could form....


Exactly, probably will defy the odds LOL
Quoting 766. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Wilma bottomed out at 882 millibars, though there's a possibility it could have been a little lower. The recon plane left a few hours before peak intensity.


But Wilma is the most intense storm in the Atlantic during the satellite era, right?
Quoting 767. hydrus:
I am glad this year is a disappointment.


LOL
98L rip
What I've always wondered is why some bloggers posts are automatically hidden.
Quoting 773. FunnelVortex:
What I've always wondered is why some bloggers posts are automatically hidden.


its how you set your filter ..
Quoting 770. FunnelVortex:


But Wilma is the most intense storm in the Atlantic during the satellite era, right?

Yes.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Below is a great source for information about what is going on in the area impacted by Pahilin. Made landfall.

Times of India up to the minute information

BTW, when see references to "Lakh" in Indian news articles, one Lakh is the same as 100,000. South Asian languages don't have any easy way to refer to large numbers, so words like "lakh" will be commonly seen. Even more confusingly, in scientific notation, it's written as "1,00,000", so don't get that confused with one million if you see it in an article from India.
Quoting 767. hydrus:
I am glad this year is a disappointment.
2013 best season almost tops 1986
Quoting 777. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
2013 best season almost tops 1986


We saw some neat monsters, didn't we? :)
Down to 30%.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT SAT OCT 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

1. A LARGE AREA OF DISORGANIZED CLOUDINESS AND SHOWERS LOCATED ABOUT
MIDWAY BETWEEN THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS AND THE LESSER ANTILLES IS
ASSOCIATED WITH AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE. UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE STEADILY BECOMING UNFAVORABLE...AND DEVELOPMENT IS
BECOMING LESS LIKELY. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT
OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...30 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
TO 15 MPH. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON THIS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CAN
BE FOUND IN HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE.

HIGH SEAS FORECASTS ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CAN BE
FOUND UNDER AWIPS HEADER NFDHSFAT1 AND WMO HEADER FZNT01 KWBC.

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

HTTP://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?COD E=ETWO

FORECASTER STEWART

Since the era of reconnaissance aircraft has ended in the West Pacific, it's not 100% certain that Tip remains the strongest. For example, both typhoons Gay '92 and Angela '95 maintained cooler cloudtops near their eyes and accordingly a T8.0/196 mph Dvorak estimate for at least 9 hours. This correlates to a pressure of 858mb in the Northwest Pacific Ocean. We'll never know for sure.


Quoting 756. beell:


similar to
your posts.
;-)


I know.
Quoting PanhandleChuck:
This season has been a huge disappointment. Looking forward to next season.

This has been about the best season I've seen in SE Alabama. Enough sort of tropical activity to give us rain when we need it, no hurricanes, almost no tornadoes, not too hot, no one's home or town got flattened....except for losing a big branch on my pear tree during a wimpy windstorm, it's hard to see how it could have been a batter season.
season compare maps





Subcutaneous battle between the Indian weather service and other forecasters (from US f.e.) is going on in their statements. Seems the IMD was quite right about Phailin.

Cyclone Phailin makes landfall at 200 kmph but not a super storm, says IMD
First Post India by FP Staff 59 mins ago

The Indian MeT department has confirmed that Cyclone Phailin has made landfall near the coast of Gopalpur, Odisha. “The very severe cyclonic storm has touched land near Gopalpur at around 200km per hour”, said LS Rathore of the IMD.

Rathore told reporters that wind speeds had intensified slightly since the system hit land. He added that the storm was bringing heavy to very heavy rain in Andhra Pradesh and Odisha, adding that the ‘serious’ situation would continue for the next six hours. “Landfall has started happening near Gopalpur, it will take about an hour for the eye of the storm to pass”, Rathore said, adding that winds would intensify in speed when that happened. Rathore also said that Phailin was in line with IMD predictions that it would be a ‘level 6′ storm. He added that it was still not a ‘super storm’. “Technically the maximum winds have to be in excess of 220 kmph for it to be classified as a super storm”, he said. ...


Whole article see link above.
Quoting 783. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
season compare maps





WOW, 1986 and 2013 Atlantic hurricane seasons maps do look similar! After the wild and crazy hurricane season of 1985 along the Gulf Coast, 1986 seemed unusually quiet, except for Bonnie, and she hit TX.
I took this from Yahoo.com page:

'The storm, though, remained exceedingly strong and dangerous. A few hours before it hit land, the eye of the storm collapsed, spreading the hurricane force winds out over a larger area and giving it a "bigger damage footprint," said Jeff Masters, meteorology director at the U.S.-based private Weather Underground.

"It's probably a bad thing it was doing this when it made landfall. Much of the housing in India is unable to withstand even a much weaker hurricane," Masters said.

He also said coasts would not be alone in suffering heavy damage. "This is a remarkably strong storm. It's going to carry hurricane-force winds inland for about 12 hours, which is quite unusual," Masters said.'
Quoting 783. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
season compare maps







At least 86 had some majors.
Im gonna go out on a limb and say that there will be less than 1000 deaths
JeffMasters has created a new entry.

One heck of waves. I'm seasick from looking at this RAW video about Phailin earlier.
getting cooler and cooler now

as each system moves along

Quoting 767. hydrus:
I am glad this year is a disappointment.


True,,,,If we were in the Pac, would we be posting here "What a wonderfull season we are having"?

Really, this year leaving out the BOC systems, this is one of the best seasons ever in the Atl...