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Category 5 Nepartak Headed for a Thursday Landfall in Taiwan

By: Jeff Masters 3:31 PM GMT on July 06, 2016

Category 5 Super Typhoon Nepartak is steaming towards a Thursday landfall in Taiwan after putting on a phenomenal display of rapid intensification on Monday and Tuesday. Nepartak went from a tropical storm with 70 mph winds on Monday afternoon to a Category 4 super typhoon with 150 mph winds on Tuesday afternoon, in just 24 hours. Since then, the typhoon has continued to take advantage of light wind shear of 5 - 15 knots and extremely warm ocean waters of 31°C (88°F) to intensify into a ferocious Category 5 storm. These waters are about 1 - 2°C (1.8 - 3.6°F) above average. At 8 am EDT Wednesday, the Japanese Meteorological Agency estimated that Nepartak had a central pressure of 900 mb, and the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) estimated top sustained winds of 175 mph. Over the past two days, unusually warm waters have extended to great depth below the storm, creating some of the highest oceanic heat content readings one sees for a tropical cyclone--near 150 kJ/cm**2 (Figure 2). Satellite loops from NOAA/SSED and NOAA/RAMMB show a fearsome storm with huge area of heavy thunderstorms with cold cloud tops reaching high into the atmosphere, surrounding a prominent eye. The storm has taken on an annular appearance, with very little in the way of spiral banding. These type of storms are more resistant to weakening than typical tropical cyclones.


Figure 1. MODIS visible satellite image of Super Typhoon Nepartak at 04:50 UTC (12:50 am EDT) July 6, 2016. At the time, Nepartak was a Category 5 super typhoon with 175 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Total Ocean Heat Content (in kilojoules per square centimeter) on July 6, 2016. The past track and forecast track of Super Typhoon Nepartak from the 2 am EDT July 6, 2016 JTWC advisory are overlaid. After traveling over a long stretch of ocean with very high heat content, Nepartak will be moving over a relatively cool area on Wednesday afternoon (U.S. EDT time.) This reduced heat energy means that Nepartak will likely be unable to strengthen further on Wednesday. On Thursday morning, typhoon will be passing over another area of relatively high oceanic heat content, which will likely prevent rapid weakening before landfall in Taiwan occurs. Image credit: University of Wisconsin/CIMSS.

Nepartak's impact on Taiwan and China
Nepartak was headed west-northwest at 18 mph on Wednesday morning (U.S. EDT) on a track that will take it over Taiwan on Thursday afternoon. Our two top global models for predicting tropical cyclone tracks, the GFS and European models, both predicted that Nepartak would make landfall in Taiwan between 18 - 21 UTC (2 pm - 5 pm EDT) on Thursday. Later that day, a trough of low pressure passing to the north of the storm is expected to pull Nepartak to the northwest and then north, taking the storm on a path that should bring it just west of Shanghai, China on Sunday, when the storm will likely dissipate. Nepartak will continue to be over very warm ocean waters of 31°C (88°F) with light wind shear of 5 - 15 knots until about 6 - 12 hours before landfall in Taiwan on Thursday. In the final 12 hours before landfall, increasing wind shear, decreasing ocean temperatures, and interaction will land should act to weaken Nepartak to Category 4 strength.


Figure 3. Swath of total rainfall from Nepartak as predicted by the 06 UTC (2 am EDT) Wednesday, July 6, 2016 run of the HWRF model. The model predicted widespread rains of 8 - 16" (light yellow colors) over much of Taiwan and Eastern China. Image credit: NOAA/NCEP/EMC.


Figure 4. Rainfall for the 10-day period ending on July 5, 2016 over China. Rainfall amounts in excess of 15.75" (400+ mm, dark blue color) fell over a large swath of China from Wuhan to just west of Shanghai. Image credit: National Meteorological Center of CMA.

Heavy rains a huge concern for Taiwan and China
About 1 - 2" of rain has fallen over Taiwan during the past ten days, so the soils should be able to absorb some of the expected 5 - 15" of rain Nepartak will dump over much of the island. Nevertheless, damaging flooding from the torrential rains of Super Typhoon Nepartak will likely cause tens of millions of dollars in damage to agriculture in Taiwan. The bigger concern for heavy rainfall from Nepartak is in mainland China, though. Exceptionally heavy monsoon rains affected large portions of central and eastern China over the past ten days, bringing rampaging floods that killed at least 170 people and caused over $5 billion in damage. The soils are still saturated from these rains, and Nepartak's rains will trigger additional damaging flooding. The largest city in central China--Wuhan, with a population of 10.8 million--received over 560mm (1.8 feet) of rain over the past ten days, causing widespread chaos there. However, the Wednesday morning run of the HWRF model (Figure 3) showed the heaviest rains of Nepartak would likely miss Wuhan. The main concern is for the region between Wuhan and Shanghai, where another 8 - 16" of rain is likely to fall on regions where more than 8" of rain fell last week.

Taiwan's recent typhoon history
If Nepartak hits Taiwan at Category 4 strength, as currently forecast by JTWC, this will not necessarily be catastrophic for the island. Taiwan is no stranger to powerful typhoons, and has endured many strikes by major typhoons without suffering catastrophic impacts. The island was hit by two major typhoons last year: Category 4 Typhoon Dujuan and Category 3 Typhoon Soudelor. Typhoon Dujuan made landfall on the island on September 28, 2015, with 140 mph winds, killing three, injuring 376, but causing less than $10 million in damage. Dujuan brought heavy rains to eastern China that caused $652 million in damage, but did not kill anybody there. On August 7, 2015, Typhoon Soudelor hit Taiwan as a Category 3 storm with 120 mph winds. Souledor killed eight, injured 420, and caused over $100 million in damage. At the peak of the storm, 4.85 million households lost electricity--the largest blackout on record in Taiwan due to a typhoon (previous record: 2.79 million customers blacked out by Typhoon Herb in 1996.) Taiping Mountain in eastern Taiwan's Yilan County saw the heaviest rains from the typhoon, with accumulations peaking at 1,334 mm (52.52".) Souledor brought heavy rains to eastern China that killed 26 people and caused $3.08 billion in damage.

Nepartak: Earth's third Category 5 storm of 2016
Nepartak is the third Category 5 storm on Earth so far in 2016, and tied for the second strongest tropical cyclone of the year (by wind speed). The other two Category 5 storms earlier this year were in the Southern Hemisphere: the Southwest Indian Ocean's Tropical Cyclone Fantala, which topped out with 175 mph winds and a 910 mb central pressure on April 17, and the Southeast Pacific's Tropical Cyclone Winston, which devastated Fiji on February 20 with sustained winds of 180 mph. Winston's lowest central pressure was 915 mb. Both storms were tied for the strongest tropical cyclones ever observed (by sustained winds) in their respective ocean basins. On average, Earth sees 4 - 5 Category 5 storms per year, with over 50% of these being typhoons in the Northwest Pacific.

Links
Stunning visible animation of Nepartak from July 6, 2016, from NOAA/RAMMB/Colorado State.

The Himawari-8 Floater satellite loops have some impressive animations of Nepartak during daylight hours in the Western Pacific.

Taiwan radar

I'll have a new post on Thursday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

I wonder how strong this storm can get before it makes landfall.
Thanks for the update, Dr. Masters....
Thanks for the update Dr. Masters.

HWRF shows a monster of 879 mb at 21 hours. It weakens by 33 hours and makes landfall at 912 mb.
Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 JUL 2016 Time : 151000 UTC
Lat : 20:28:03 N Lon : 126:06:18 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
7.2 / 912.0mb/146.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.6 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -39.8C Cloud Region Temp : -78.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 133km
- Environmental MSLP : 1007mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 29.3 degrees



Why is Nepartak expanding? Could someone explain that?
Meanwhile the East Pacific is cranking out a 125mph storm
Nepartak's eye is really small, IMO:

Also, this typhoon has not gone under an EWRC, and it seems to be annular! If it hadn't been expected to make landfall, it would've been a perfect storm to track.
Thanks for the update. Himawari-8. July 6, 1500 UTC :

ADT shows the weakening flag ON.
Thanks for the update Dr Masters!

Here in Soo Cal.........I just love 2 week long lasting trofs in the summer!
Hey everybody Im back from my vacation from the 4th of July weekend. Man I feel sorry for whats about to take place in Taiwan. This is horrible.
Quoting 11. Patrap:

ADT shows the weakening flag ON.

As I've said at the end of the last blog: Eyewall Replacement Cycle happening to Nepartak; look at the last frames:



And thanks for the new blog entry, doc!
June 2016 CO2

406.81
parts per million (ppm)

Mauna Loa Observatory, Hawaii (NOAA-ESRL)

Preliminary data released July 5, 2016
Hopefully this EWRC knocks it down a bit before landfall. Never seen a storm that big have an eye so small. Seriously crazy stuff.
Mean while the Atlantic Basin is dominated by dry air.
Taiwan is used to powerful storms, hardly hear from the news media afterwards.People are prepared is the reason.If something like this hit the U.S. it would be a major catastrophe.Never hear the end of it.
Quoting 16. TimSoCal:

Hopefully this EWRC knocks it down a bit before landfall. Never seen a storm that big have an eye so small. Seriously crazy stuff.


Hurricane Wilma was a beast with a pin hole eye in the western Caribbean. Truly remarkable storm
Quoting 7. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Why is Nepartak expanding? Could someone explain that?

Typical rule of thumb with typhoons is that when a small compact system undergoes an eye wall replacement cycle, the storm itself will expand outward while the new eye forms outside the walls of it's predecessor. Also has the storm inches northward in latitude!!! lol the atmospheric column condenses in height causing storms to generally expand outwards as they travel more and more north with time.
Some people have been saying Nepartak is huge, but I beg to differ. Nepartak is actually a pretty compact storm. According to JTWC, hurricane force winds (64kt+) only extend 40 miles outward from the center. Reminds me a lot of Hurricane Andrew in the Atlantic.



SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 015
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
061200Z --- NEAR 20.2N 126.9E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 16 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 150 KT, GUSTS 180 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
A beast of a storm:



If it manages to complete its EWRC quickly it could strengthen some more, but with a much larger wind radius. You can see how much it's grown in size from the satellite imagery.
Quoting 16. TimSoCal:

Hopefully this EWRC knocks it down a bit before landfall. Never seen a storm that big have an eye so small. Seriously crazy stuff.


Unfortunately it maybe undergoing this eye wall cycle while it still has time to re establish itself prior to land interaction with Taiwan. It also has another warm eddie to cross 12 hours prior to landfall as well. It has plenty of time to reach a second peak. Still probably looking at a 130 knot storm at the least upon landfall....:/
Quoting 13. bigwes6844:

Hey everybody Im back from my vacation from the 4th of July weekend. Man I feel sorry for whats about to take place in Taiwan. This is horrible.


They have been hit by scores of Cat4's, they are used to it.
Quoting 22. Envoirment:

A beast of a storm:



If it manages to complete its EWRC quickly it could strengthen some more, but with a much larger wind radius. You can see how much it's grown in size from the satellite imagery.


Is the CIMSS showing another large eye wall about to take form? Certainly hinting at it to me... Always thought annular typhoons went through these eye wall replacement cycles far less frequent than your typical typhoon.
Quoting 2. RitaEvac:


The typhoon is growing! Its almost as big as Taiwan now.
Quoting 22. Envoirment:

A beast of a storm:



If it manages to complete its EWRC quickly it could strengthen some more, but with a much larger wind radius. You can see how much it's grown in size from the satellite imagery.


But you can also notice the temperature of the cloud tops surrounding the system. When the system was smaller it was better organized with colder cloud tops completely surrounding the center.
Time will tell if the storm can re-organize/strengthen with its expanded size. In many cases (not all) an expanding system is a sign of weakening. Lets hope that is the case with this system.
Wilma had a pressure of 882 mb with a 2.3 mile diameter eye (smallest eye of any Atlantic tropical cyclone).
Quoting 25. ILwthrfan:



Is the CIMSS showing another large eye wall about to take form? Certainly hinting at it to me... Always thought annular typhoons went through these eye wall replacement cycles far less frequent than your typical typhoon.

Nepartak is not really annular, it has a small eye and a secondary eyewall which pretty much excludes it from being annular. And based on recent imagery the cdo is no longer axi-symmetric
Just imagine how next month will look out here. Its dead now. Yall better enjoy this while it lasts.

I see the eye contracting.
Quoting 14. barbamz:


As I've said at the end of the last blog: Eyewall Replacement Cycle happening to Nepartak; look at the last frames:



And thanks for the new blog entry, doc!


it has a double eyewall right now from the looks of it
Quoting 27. Sfloridacat5:



But you can also notice the temperature of the cloud tops surrounding the system. When the system was smaller it was better organized with colder cloud tops completely surrounding the center.
Time will tell if the storm can re-organize/strengthen with its expanded size. In many cases (not all) an expanding system is a sign of weakening. Lets hope that is the case with this system.


Because it's currently going under an EWRC and is over water with less ocean heat content than before. It'll be moving over water with higher OHC as it approaches Taiwan and if it can complete its EWRC by then, it could put on a quick round of intensification once again before landfall.
To say we went through a lot of historical named storms in 2005. I forgot all about this storm that became a strong cat 4!


Quoting 30. bigwes6844:

Just imagine how next month will look out here. Its dead now. Yall better enjoy this while it lasts.

I was just imaging that to myself, this is the calm before the action.
Quoting 14. barbamz:


As I've said at the end of the last blog: Eyewall Replacement Cycle happening to Nepartak; look at the last frames:



And thanks for the new blog entry, doc!



That mimic run ended at 7am cdt
2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

Click image for loop

.
Quoting 27. Sfloridacat5:



But you can also notice the temperature of the cloud tops surrounding the system. When the system was smaller it was better organized with colder cloud tops completely surrounding the center.
Time will tell if the storm can re-organize/strengthen with its expanded size. In many cases (not all) an expanding system is a sign of weakening. Lets hope that is the case with this system.

It is now too over that somewhat cooler ocean patch.
Thing could be doing some perfect timing with that EWRC.
It was 11 years ago tonight that New Orleans experienced this cat one cane.

Although it was called a TS at the time..we all knew it was a Hurricane. It knocked out power to over 400,000 folks and we were still removing trees and other debris everywhere when the K storm rolled in almost 7 weeks later. Cindy was upgraded to a Hurricane in the post season report.

Louisiana had 3 Hurricanes landfall in 2005.

Quoting 24. MahFL:



They have been hit by scores of Cat4's, they are used to it.


I don't appreciate this comment. A major tropical cyclone landfalling is significant no matter what part of the world you're in. I doubt many would've appreciated me saying "Oh Katrina making landfall in the US? They've had so many major landfalls before - they're used to it!" back in 05. Every landfalling storm brings with it different dyanmics and whilst some majors hit Taiwan and don't do too much damage, some are able to cause extensive damage and disruption. Given how strong Nepartak currently is and the rainfall forecast, I have a feeling it'll come under the latter rather than the former.
Quoting 2. RitaEvac:




Ingesting some dryer air?
We use the Water Vapor loop for observing dry air.



The storm is very insolated from any dry air...which is very little and nw of the system.
Lots of sunlight hitting those oceans down there, gonna boil it up like a hot stew

Quoting 40. Patrap:

It was 11 years ago tonight that New Orleans experienced this cat one cane.

Although it was called a TS at the time..we all knew it was a Hurricane. It knocked out power to over 400,000 folks and we were still removing trees and other debris everywhere when the K storm rolled in almost 7 weeks later. Cindy was upgraded to a Hurricane in the post season report.

Louisiana had 3 Hurricanes landfall in 2005.


I remember this storm like it was yesterday Pat. I kept saying this is not a tropical storm hitting us. I found i was right after all these years it was a Cat 1. I remember my power went out that night and listening to that howling wind all night long. It was really scary!
For Tazzaroo'


Pinhole eye noted.


Still under the Marine Layer. I am in the upper-left of the long thin county. Sun is starting to peek in. 68.6F
Thanks Dr. In terms of the comparative damage numbers (in US dollars as you noted) using Taiwan as the example, a direct hit in these Islands on a major city hub is probably where the bulk of the monetary losses (not lives lost which have no monetary value) come from. Then you have a place like the coastal US (from the Gulf, around Florida, and up the Eastern Seaboard) where major sections of the coastline are developed including the major coastal cites and the often expensive homes and resorts on the coast in between the population centers. In the case of China, and the industrial ports, the damages go way up.

At the end of the day, and if a strong tropical storm come ashore anywhere in the world, you are always hoping that it makes landfall in the least populated and developed areas.
Quoting 24. MahFL:


They have been hit by scores of Cat4's, they are used to it.


I really want to lay into this jerk, but he's not worth getting banned. Over and over and over, the snide comments towards folks' posts... just a passive derogatory response is all it seems capable of.

Been my experience here that those who snide away usually never bring anything other than that.

Many run everything thru a political or ideology filter and react and post according to the same.
Just a FYI



The current look of Blas reminds me of Gilbert in 88:

Current Blas frame:




Gilbert:
Quoting 55. weathermanwannabe:

While still annular, the current look of Nepartak reminds me of Gilbert in 98:

Current Nepartak frame:




Gilbert:



There was no Gilbert in 1998. You mean Hurricane Gilbert of 1988!

Nepartak is a fearsome-looking typhoon. Starting to cross over 31 C SSTs, it can only get stronger.
That's like saying since Florida has been hit by several majors in the past that they should be use to it.No one will ever be use to these storms as they turn people's lives upside down.
Quoting 56. HurriHistory:



There was no Gilbert in 1998. You mean Hurricane Gilbert of 1988!


Thank You; corrected.............Need new reading glasses....................

Cat 3 Blas has a large eye now. Question is whether it will bear west per the Euro model, or turn more NW over cooler SST as per all the others. If and when it gets over cooler water, the question will be how long it can persist given its annular structure.
Quoting 55. weathermanwannabe:

While still annular, the current look of Nepartak reminds me of Gilbert in 88:

Current Nepartak frame:




Gilbert:



The upper image shows Hurricane Blas not Typhoon Nepartak.
Quoting 30. bigwes6844:

Just imagine how next month will look out here. Its dead now. Yall better enjoy this while it lasts.


Next month at this time could still be dead. In most years the Atlantic does not really begin to pick up until the third week of August. It's a wait and see game.
Quoting 24. MahFL:



They have been hit by scores of Cat4's, they are used to it.


I would hope you just made a gaff, but if not may I illustrate what you said in another way as I don't think you're as insensitive as your comment implies

He's been hit buy a car many times so he's used to it.....

They've had many miscarriages before so they're use to it.....

Quoting 61. Carnivorous:



The upper image shows Hurricane Blas not Typhoon Nepartak.


2nd correction below; batting 0-2 this afternoon........Gonna take a break now after wolfing down a big burger for lunch and trying to type and read at the same time......................................... :)
A Typhoon Warning is in effect for Yilan County, Hualien County, Taitung County, in Taiwan including Ludao, and Lanyu.

Link
Quoting 59. weathermanwannabe:



Thank You; corrected.............Need new reading glasses....................


Your very welcome. With all the named storms that have occured since names were issued in 1953 it's easy to mistake one for another.
Quoting 52. aquak9:



I really want to lay into this jerk, but he's not worth getting banned. Over and over and over, the snide comments towards folks' posts... just a passive derogatory response is all it seems capable of.



aquak9 you lay into them and then relay the bans over, to me so as you don't get the hard end of the stick.
That way I'll get the ban as per (transfer,) and you can go on raving about whatever you want!

Meanwhile it looks a bit grim for the population of Taiwan at Category 4 strength, bedtime here now in Europe but I hope we dawn with everybody still alive.
All the best from PlazaRed.
Quoting 44. Patrap:

We use the Water Vapor loop for observing dry air.






Just cooler cloud tops then?
Link

work and classes scheduled as usual for today (Thursday) in Taiwan.
Quoting 68. NNYer:



Just cooler cloud tops then?


Warmer
Invest 96E seems to be a promising candidate to become Tropical Depression Four-E/Tropical Storm Celia.

Quoting 26. bigwes6844:

The typhoon is growing! Its almost as big as Taiwan now.

For those who know what they are talking and writing about, this is one mother of a storm for Taiwan?
Quoting 58. washingtonian115:

That's like saying since Florida has been hit by several majors in the past that they should be use to it.No one will ever be use to these storms as they turn people's lives upside down.

Better prepared. But it's all statistics and for some the best preps will simply fail while others 'who shouldn't have' will luck out. It's always a mess.

This Nepartak is going to be a particularly severe hit.
And it has per now potential on already being a beast.
I feel this fear, something I've got since Haiyan and Patricia. The most important part of Nepartak's track is commencing now or very soon, and for me once again it is evening meaning I have to sleep during most of this phase. I wonder what I'll wake up to tomorrow. I will try not suffer a stroke again if the thing reads 860 hPa. Of course it is highly unlikely. But I've seen things.
Quoting 50. PedleyCA:


Still under the Marine Layer. I am in the upper-left of the long thin county. Sun is starting to peek in. 68.6F


Here's my 7 day forecast Pedley, still going to be hot and humid with heat indexes up to 110 degrees or more. Enjoy your low 80's. That must be enjoyable compared to our daily 90's in the forecast. The AC is running full time here. Hopefully it will cool down to the upper 80's soon. I would really like to have some relief from this sweltering heat.

Quoting 54. bigwes6844:

Just a FYI







If something brews here, it could intensify quickly, given that the shear is low right now and the water temps are very high (Low 90's in some spots)
More accurate to say people in disaster prone areas, whether Taiwan or tornado alley, are prepared for another disaster. Whether an EF4 tornado or a high end category four typhoon, prepared does not mean they are not affected greatly by some of the worst weather on Earth. It does not mean loved ones don't die, or that people don't lose all their worldly possessions, or any number of horrible possibilities that come from these monsters. You can be as prepared as possible and sometimes it doesn't matter because a storm is just that strong. "They are us to it", shows a complete lack of understanding/empathy for what it's like to go through even one storm in a lifetime like this.
Philip Klotzbach ‏@philklotzbach 41m41 minutes ago Moraga, CA
The CFS has backed off somewhat on development of #LaNina over the past few weeks.

Quoting 50. PedleyCA:


Still under the Marine Layer. I am in the upper-left of the long thin county. Sun is starting to peek in. 68.6F


Nice, our low in NW Florida this morning was a lovely 83 and felt like 93!
Quoting 78. 69Viking:



Nice, our low in NW Florida this morning was a lovely 83 and felt like 93!

The forecast here today is 87F (KRAL) Currently 72.4F All that stuff is back offshore now.
Quoting 79. PedleyCA:


The forecast here today is 87F (KRAL) Currently 72.4F All that stuff is back offshore now.


Look at post 74. A completely different story in South Florida(Boca Raton, fL)
Quoting 78. 69Viking:



Nice, our low in NW Florida this morning was a lovely 83 and felt like 93!


Which city ? It is almost 97 degrees in South Florida(Boca Raton, FL)
You don't need a LA nina for a very active season.
Quoting 71. cyclonekid:

Invest 96E seems to be a promising candidate to become Tropical Depression Four-E/Tropical Storm Celia.




it looks really good

06/1745 UTC 12.2N 108.6W T2.0/2.0 96E -- East Pacific


i think the only thing it may be missing is a closed low
GFS is showing a trend for more healthier waves coming off of Africa in the next 1-2 weeks. Maybe one or two will develop by the end of July.
Soudelor took an almost identical track through Taiwan that this one is expected to take



Soudelor caused about $3B in economic losses. I'm worried about what will happen when Nepartak hits an already flooded China. It will still be carrying a lot of rain so there is potential there for something crazy.

Does anyone have any insight into what would happen in China if Nepartak continues on its projected path?
Taiwan like anywhere that has been hit by past Typhoons or Hurricanes will always be better prepared than before they were ever hit.

My little area of NW Florida hadn't been hit by a powerful hurricane for almost 20 years before Opal hit in 1995 and it caused major damage to the old structures. After that building codes were changed and houses and businesses rebuilt stronger and then Ivan hit in 2004. Again the codes changed so that houses now had to built with the ability to handle up to 140 mph winds, minimum recommendation above sea level for a house was moved from 9' to 10'.

A year later Dennis hit in July and my new house that was finished in May was hit by the eastern side of Dennis and my house lost a few shingles and was surround by water but there was no damage other than the few shingles. House is elevated 5' off the ground thanks to Ivan coming through the year before and moving the height recommendation to 10' and it easily handled the 2 feet of water that surrounded it and made it an island for a while.

Yes this Typhoon will cause damage but it won't be as severe as if they had never been hit before and prepared themselves better.
Quoting 81. birdsrock2016:



Which city ? It is almost 97 degrees in South Florida(Boca Raton, FL)

Jurupa Valley, CA Indian Hills PWS
Quoting 85. MAstu:

Soudelor took an almost identical track through Taiwan that this one is expected to take



Soudelor caused about $3B in economic losses. I'm worried about what will happen when Nepartak hits an already flooded China. It will still be carrying a lot of rain so there is potential there for something crazy.

Does anyone have any insight into what would happen in China if Nepartak continues on its projected path?

Possible destructive tornadoes , mudslides, flooding, and lots of deaths(unfortunately).
Quoting 81. birdsrock2016:



Which city ? It is almost 97 degrees in South Florida(Boca Raton, FL)


Fort Walton Beach, it's currently 88 and feels like 100, we have some storms close by with clouds around keeping our temps in check. Boca Raton is currently 90 and feels like 101. Not sure where you get your temps from but you can't trust personal weather stations on Weather Underground for official temps! I pulled my data from NOAA.
Not completely accurate. The Philippines, case and point, are the most affected place on the planet when it comes to typhoons. Many areas, think Tacloban, are in no means better prepared. Post interviews after Haiyan showed many had no idea that surge is the number one killers in typhoons. Economics and development are key indicator in preparedness. Some places like Taiwan are excellent, in less developed areas, far from it. You can be as prepared as possible, but it will always be strength and path that tell the real toll. One could say south Florida with up to date coding is prepared. When, eventually, a cat4/5 major hits that area, then we will see if that line of thinking holds. Nothing prepares anyone adequately for any top end severe weather of any type. These storms can be of the magnitude that supersede any preparation except evacuation.
Quoting 89. 69Viking:



Fort Walton Beach, it's currently 88 and feels like 100, we have some storms close by with clouds around keeping our temps in check. Boca Raton is currently 90 and feels like 101. Not sure where you get your temps from but you can't trust personal weather stations on Weather Underground for official temps! I pulled my data from NOAA.


Yeah, you need to pull your information from a National Weather Service location. The PWS on wunderground will show crazy heat indexes of 120 degrees. Then you check the official reporting station a few miles away and the heat index is 103 degrees.
Currently 93 (high so far 94) with a heat index of 103 here in Fort Myers.
Nepartak is in the midst of an eyewall replacement cycle, complicating its landfall strength. Sometimes, these storms can resiliently maintain their inner core while the outer eyewall continues to build. Remember that Patricia had concentric eyewalls around peak intensity as a 185kt hurricane. It's also worth noting that small inner core like the one Nepartak had can also collapse quickly. I yet again reference Patricia, which decreased 55kt in 11 hours (from 185kt at 12z to 130kt at landfall at 23z). Nonetheless, Nepartak should be an extremely dangerous typhoon at landfall.

Link

Various live webcams in Taiwan. Most of them are duds but I found a few working on the east coast. Also has info on rainfall, wind speed/direction, and air pressure that updates every 15 minutes.

Currently around 3:00 there, so not much to see yet.
Weather story in our local news about the Saharan Dust.

Weather Blog: Saharan Air Layer impacting Florida

Link
"A wedge of air connected with dust from Africa will help push temperatures in Southwest Florida near-record levels today.

The Saharan Air Layer, or "SAL" as it's commonly referred to, is a feature of tropical weather common in summer and fall. It involves an air mass with stronger winds, a high concentration of dry air, and dust particles from the Saharan Desert.

These wedges of air drift off Africa's coast migrating westward over the Atlantic Ocean compliments of the east-to-west prevailing winds over this part of the world.
Though the intensity of the "SAL" is diluted crossing the Atlantic, at various times during the year enough of the layer holds together to play a pronounced role in the weather over Florida.

The impacts of the air layer's movement on weather can be quite noticeable. Oftentimes when Southwest Florida is being influenced by the "SAL" the sky takes on a hazy, milky appearance because of the additional dust particles in the atmosphere.

Since the "SAL" brings comparatively drier air with it, rain coverage is often greatly reduced in areas where the layer is near.

On a typical early July afternoon for instance, rain coverage often ranges between 40 and 50% of Southwest Florida. Days when the Saharan Air Layer is near us, though, the coverage of rain along Florida's west coast often drops well below 20%.

Over the course of the next several days the influence of dry and dusty air will work in conjunction with a ridge of high pressure over the state. Ridges of high pressure promote sinking air in the profile of the atmosphere, a mechanism pushing temperatures to rise above the seasonable norm.

Through Friday afternoon, highs are forecast to top out between 94 and 97 degrees. This means many communities will be closer to tying record highs than being near the normal temp for early July of 92 degrees.

Fort Myers' record high temperature for Wednesday, July 6th is 97 degrees set in 1995. Wednesday's forecast high is 96 degrees."

Updating from Taipei, Taiwan.

The clouds have been welling up in the east since just now. We had unusually high pressure, clear skies and temperatures of 36 - 28˚C and birds have been flying off to seek cover since two days ago (they flew away from the park/heronry in flocks as I cycle pass the park daily). Observed an unusual phenomenon where all insects made noise at once in the evening just before sunset, the same thing happened for earthquakes (noisy just before and total silence thereafter). I will try to document the typhoon when it hits as it's my first! I moved here in January! Wish me well!
Here is the SAL forecast panel for Saturday from the U of Athens forecast model; enveloping a large portion of Florida and the Gulf; the heat might be brutal but the Western Sunsets will be beautiful......................................... ......



Quoting 60. BayFog:


Cat 3 Blas has a large eye now. Question is whether it will bear west per the Euro model, or turn more NW over cooler SST as per all the others. If and when it gets over cooler water, the question will be how long it can persist given its annular structure.


I vote for the cut-off mid/upper low to the northwest having the ability to turn a deep storm.
ADDED: Also, the base of a northern stream long-wave trough arriving to the north of Blas on Friday to assist in eroding the steering ridge.
Looks like we don't have to look for anything developing in the Gulf or Caribbean anytime soon, lots of dry sinking air over the area!
Quoting 71. cyclonekid:

Invest 96E seems to be a promising candidate to become Tropical Depression Four-E/Tropical Storm Celia.


Keep tracking fishes.


Brutally hot here today in S. Fla.

Feel like temps

Definitely an EWRC ongoing with Nepartak. Probably not good timing. Assuming nothing else disrupts it as it completes the cycle, it will likely reintensify tonight and early tomorrow, in addition to being larger. It's still very powerful as is.

Tropical Depression Four-E should join the fray at 21z:

A new study out on past global warming spikes as detected through testing of carbon in fossilized shells; while these two events were tied to volcanic activity and the meteor impact, the most interesting part is how much the temp differentials impacted marine species extinction (noting the recent Cod fish stock declines in the Bay of Maine which has been tied to warming SSTs impacting their larvae and reproduction rates):

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/07/anci ent-global-warming-spikes-suggest-dinosaurs-died-d ouble-disaster


Now, new research has identified two substantial spikes of global warming that support this notion. To determine global temperatures at the time of each event, scientists looked at the amounts of carbon and oxygen in well-preserved fossil shells from Seymour Island, Antarctica. The shells, from five clamlike relatives that survived the die-off (above), represent a 3.5-million-year-long interval that straddles the onset of the volcanism and the end of the dinosaur era. In particular, they looked at the ratio of carbonate minerals in the shells that included two forms—or isotopes—of oxygen and carbon: oxygen-18 and carbon-13, which—when together in the same molecule—are a keen indicator of the water temperature at which the shells formed. They found that local water temperatures rose, on average, about 1.1°C (2°F) in the wake of the asteroid impact. But water temperatures jumped a whopping 7.8°C (14°F) around the same time the volcanoes, which erupted in what is now India, began spewing planet-warming carbon dioxide some 150,000 years before the impact, the researchers report online today in Nature Communications. Previous studies of fossils from the site suggest that, of the 24 species that died out during that time, 10 went extinct due to the volcanism, whereas the rest died out after the asteroid impact, the researchers note. It’s not clear how the warming spikes killed the marine species, but the ultimate cause of each set of die-offs may have been distinct: Almost all of the species that disappeared in the first wave of extinctions were bottom-dwellers, but eight of the 14 that died out after the asteroid impact were living in surface or mid-depth waters.
Quoting 100. Grothar:



Brutally hot here today in S. Fla.

Feel like temps


I like this one too.
Quoting 89. 69Viking:



Fort Walton Beach, it's currently 88 and feels like 100, we have some storms close by with clouds around keeping our temps in check. Boca Raton is currently 90 and feels like 101. Not sure where you get your temps from but you can't trust personal weather stations on Weather Underground for official temps! I pulled my data from NOAA.

I live in West Boca away from the ocean , this temp is most likely near the beach or the airport. I am inland , so that is why it is hotter in my place.
Quoting 95. pummkin:

Updating from Taipei, Taiwan.

The clouds have been welling up in the east since just now. We had unusually high pressure, clear skies and temperatures of 36 - 28˚C and birds have been flying off to seek cover since two days ago (they flew away from the park/heronry in flocks as I cycle pass the park daily). Observed an unusual phenomenon where all insects made noise at once in the evening just before sunset, the same thing happened for earthquakes (noisy just before and total silence thereafter). I will try to document the typhoon when it hits as it's my first! I moved here in January! Wish me well!
That's a very interesting phenomenon... I always enjoy watching wildlife when there are any adverse weather conditions. Thanks for the update and keeping us posted. Please take care and be as safe as you possibly can. Prayers for you and all those in the path of this very dangerous storm.
Quoting 98. 69Viking:

Looks like we don't have to look for anything developing in the Gulf or Caribbean anytime soon, lots of dry sinking air over the area!
Maybe the whole hurricane season.
La Nina backing off dry african dust and little rain in tropics with shear the hurricane season could be very very slow.
EWRC is also clearly evident on the most recent microwave image. However, it seems to be currently at an advanced stage as the new eyewall is already quite pronounced:



BTW...this microwave image from 03z ranks among the most intense I have ever seen...

The current plume of mid-level moisture in the Central Atlantic is not having much of a problem pushing back the mid-level SAL plume:



Biggest, unprecedented, Earth's 3rd, yawn yawn
Quoting 85. MAstu:

Does anyone have any insight into what would happen in China if Nepartak continues on its projected path?

Did you happen to read the blog you are commenting on?
Quoting 109. Carnivorous:

EWRC is also clearly evident on the most recent microwave image. However, it seems to be currently at an advanced stage as the new eyewall is already quite pronounced:



BTW...this microwave image from 03z ranks among the most intense I have ever seen...



So much for my post. As that image shows, and as MA said, it appears the storm is already nearing the end of the EWRC. This should give it time to maintain, or intensify further, over the next 24 hours.
The hottest heat index that I can find in Florida right now according to this link is MacDill AFB which is located on a peninsula in Tampa Bay. Their heat index is at 110 degrees at 3 PM with a temp of 97 and a dew point of 76,,

Kinda steamy.

Link

Quoting 95. pummkin:

Updating from Taipei, Taiwan.

The clouds have been welling up in the east since just now. We had unusually high pressure, clear skies and temperatures of 36 - 28˚C and birds have been flying off to seek cover since two days ago (they flew away from the park/heronry in flocks as I cycle pass the park daily). Observed an unusual phenomenon where all insects made noise at once in the evening just before sunset, the same thing happened for earthquakes (noisy just before and total silence thereafter). I will try to document the typhoon when it hits as it's my first! I moved here in January! Wish me well!


Wow, how lucky and fortunate we all are to have a fellow blogger on the ground in Taiwan offering eye witness accounts of the action. Stay safe, and blog only if you're able.
Quoting 99. hurricanefishfla:

Keep tracking fishes.



So what's going to happen when we get a storm tha gos out too sea on are side ? I gust you are a land lover when it comes too tracking storms and waiting too hit land well your in luck you can track Nepartak. Has it will it land
Yall have a good afternoon tracking the current Pacific storms; hoping for the best for Taiwan tomorrow as the storm closes in on them. See you folks in the am.
Bad news about Nepartak nearing the end of its EWRC - just in time for it to move over warmer water with more energy for it to insensify.
Quoting 112. owenowen:

Biggest, unprecedented, Earth's 3rd, yawn yawn
Yep. When the meteorologically uncommon becomes common--thanks to the million of tonnes of excess CO2 we're pumping into the atmosphere every hour--some will get bored. Yawns are a sign of acceptance of the dire straits we're in, though, so they're a good thing...
Josh Morgerman finally arrived in Taiwan, He will probably chase the storm from Taitung. HWRF is now showing a potential landfall there.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042016
300 PM MDT WED JUL 06 2016

Satellite imagery indicates that the low pressure area located well
southwest of the coast of Mexico now has a well-defined circulation
and sufficient organized convection to be designated a tropical
depression. Thus, advisories are initiated on Tropical Depression
Four-E with an initial intensity of 30 kt.

The depression is moving westward or 280 degrees at 7 kt. A weak
low- to mid-level ridge should steer the cyclone westward at a
less than climatological forward speed for the next 3-4 days,
followed by a west-northwestward motion by day 5. The track
forecast guidance is in good agreement with this scenario, and the
track forecast is in the center of the guidance envelope.

The dynamical models forecast that the cyclone will be in an
environment of light vertical wind shear for the next five days.
However, it is forecast to cross an area of cooler water, possibly a
cold wake left by Hurricane Blas, during the next 72 hours. This is
expected to allow only slow intensification during that time.
Subsequently, the cyclone should move over warmer water and
strengthen at a faster rate. The intensity forecast is in best
agreement with the SHIPS model, and it calls for the cyclone to
become a tropical storm in about 24 hours and a hurricane in about
96 hours. An alternative scenario is that the cyclone strengthens
faster than currently forecast due to the conducive shear
environment.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 12.2N 109.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 12.3N 110.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 12.3N 111.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 08/0600Z 12.5N 112.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 08/1800Z 12.5N 114.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 09/1800Z 12.5N 117.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
96H 10/1800Z 13.0N 120.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 11/1800Z 14.5N 123.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
? for you all why did the NHC not put later today or tonight on there out look they used the next few days

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Blas, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 525 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, continue to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the
system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent


any way that ended up being wrong
TD 4E could be are 1st cat 5 of the E PAC season
Quoting 108. help4u:

La Nina backing off dry african dust and little rain in tropics with shear the hurricane season could be very very slow.


if not over already.

In 9 hours Nepartak will be a monster with 880 mb based on the hwrf.
The hwrf has been saying this for a couple of days not changing its decision. If Nepartak really completed it's eye wall replacement cycle, it is going to intensify once more since warm waters are in its way.
Quoting 124. Tazmanian:

TD 4E could be are 1st cat 5 of the E PAC season

The forecast calls for a category 2.
Quoting 125. CaribBoy:



if not over already.



It's early July guys and conditions are normal for this time of year has I been telling you guys some of you have no patience at all
Quoting 129. Tazmanian:




It's early July guys and conditions are normal for this time of year has I been telling you guys some of you have no patience at all

Personally, I believe that a few weak early season storms probably do not mean anything unless they were cape Verde and at a moderate intensity with the look of a organized storm. For example Colin was not organized, however, Alex was.However, Alex was probably be a freak accident. A low pressure system took advantage of warm water and low wind shear and developed a warm core. It further organized and became a hurricane.
Sunrise in Taiwan now. The Kenting and Hengchun cam in Pingtung County has a great view of the coast.

Link

EDIT: Sanxiantai in Taitung County is even better. Gorgeous sunrise too!
Quoting 130. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:


Personally, I believe that a few weak early season storms probably do not mean anything unless they were cape Verde and at a moderate intensity with the look of a organized storm. For example Colin was not organized, however, Alex was.However, Alex was probably be a freak accident. A low pressure system took advantage of warm water and low wind shear and developed a warm core. It further organized and became a hurricane. This also farther north than most hurricanes and in January. A storm like Alex at that time really does not mean anything.
Imagine if the blog existed in 92 here as we did not get the A storm until mid August.



Climatology rules the roost.




Quoting 123. Tazmanian:

? for you all why did the NHC not put later today or tonight on there out look they used the next few days

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1100 AM PDT WED JUL 6 2016

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

The National Hurricane Center is issuing advisories on Hurricane
Blas, located about 1000 miles west-southwest of the southern tip
of the Baja California peninsula.

Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low
pressure located about 525 miles south-southwest of Manzanillo,
Mexico, continue to show some signs of organization. Environmental
conditions are conducive for additional development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next day or so while the
system moves westward at about 10 mph.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...90 percent


any way that ended up being wrong
They said it like that so they could include any time from right now to tomorrow morning. They didn't mean tomorrow ; they meant maybe today, tonight, or tomorrow morning.
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

137. VR46L
I don't know if this has been posted already

Himawari-8 Loop of the Day

From RAMMB ... Bandwidth heavy but so worth it IMO ...
Quoting 135. BahaHurican:

They said it like that so they could include any time from right now to tomorrow morning. They didn't mean tomorrow ; they meant maybe today, tonight, or tomorrow morning.


Thanks
When do you think the ERWC will be finished?
This is one Angry Super typhoon.



An EWRC for the tropical wx textbooks ? Nepartak :
Is the EWRC complete?
Current Radar frame,Taiwan

I'm interested and a little fearful of what Nepartak will look like in several hours. You can already see the new eye starting to take shape on conventional satellite, and it's very clear on the microwave loops as we can see. Outflow has been improving as it takes on a perfect "buzz saw" shape. Still a chance it sucks in some drier continental air which would disrupt it, but if that doesn't happen the potential is sky high.
Quoting 103. weathermanwannabe:

A new study out on past global warming spikes as detected through testing of carbon in fossilized shells; while these two events were tied to volcanic activity and the meteor impact, the most interesting part is how much the temp differentials impacted marine species extinction (noting the recent Cod fish stock declines in the Bay of Maine which has been tied to warming SSTs impacting their larvae and reproduction rates):

http://www.sciencemag.org/news/2016/07/anci ent-global-warming-spikes-suggest-dinosaurs-died-d ouble-disaster


Now, new research has identified two substantial spikes of global warming that support this notion. To determine global temperatures at the time of each event, scientists looked at the amounts of carbon and oxygen in well-preserved fossil shells from Seymour Island, Antarctica. The shells, from five clamlike relatives that survived the die-off (above), represent a 3.5-million-year-long interval that straddles the onset of the volcanism and the end of the dinosaur era. In particular, they looked at the ratio of carbonate minerals in the shells that included two forms—or isotopes—of oxygen and carbon: oxygen-18 and carbon-13, which—when together in the same molecule—are a keen indicator of the water temperature at which the shells formed. They found that local water temperatures rose, on average, about 1.1°C (2°F) in the wake of the asteroid impact. But water temperatures jumped a whopping 7.8°C (14°F) around the same time the volcanoes, which erupted in what is now India, began spewing planet-warming carbon dioxide some 150,000 years before the impact, the researchers report online today in Nature Communications. Previous studies of fossils from the site suggest that, of the 24 species that died out during that time, 10 went extinct due to the volcanism, whereas the rest died out after the asteroid impact, the researchers note. It’s not clear how the warming spikes killed the marine species, but the ultimate cause of each set of die-offs may have been distinct: Almost all of the species that disappeared in the first wave of extinctions were bottom-dwellers, but eight of the 14 that died out after the asteroid impact were living in surface or mid-depth waters.
The decline of the Cod schools in the Northeast, is a result of over fishing by the commercial fleets, not from global warming. Everything that happens in this world is not caused by global warming. It will be a long time before the stocks recover if ever, as this is what happens when a species is over fished or hunted to the point of extinction. I am sorry to interrupt a weather blog about global warming when a cat 5 typhoon is getting ready to impact a country.
Quoting 137. VR46L:

I don't know if this has been posted already

Himawari-8 Loop of the Day

From RAMMB ... Bandwidth heavy but so worth it IMO ...


once again that satellite is bad arse! Isn't there an American equal for the Atlantic coming soon?
It's a new dawn (screenshot) :
150. MahFL
Quoting 42. Envoirment:



I don't appreciate this comment. A major tropical cyclone landfalling is significant no matter what part of the world you're in...


I suggest you re-read Dr. Masters section about the impact of powerful cyclones on Taiwan. The island is uniquely formed to deal with them, they have a massive mountain range on the east coast and the major population centers are on the west coast. Also their infrastructure is designed to withstand many cyclones per year.
There are no mountains in New Orleans, just for those people that don't know that.
multiple warnings are lighting up for Taiwan now. The entire mainland island is now under a typhoon warning.

Link
154. MahFL
Quoting 86. 69Viking:

...Yes this Typhoon will cause damage but it won't be as severe as if they had never been hit before and prepared themselves better.


Well thank you, someone who understands my point of view.
Are records kept of the deepest tropical cyclones to make landfall in east-Asian countries--e.g. China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan? I'm curious where 900 mb would rank as a landfalling tropical cyclone in Taiwan.
158. VR46L
Quoting 147. wartsttocs:



once again that satellite is bad arse! Isn't there an American equal for the Atlantic coming soon?



Yes that Satelilte is amazing

I understand its Nov 4th Goes R page

159. OKsky
Quoting 145. NativeSun:

The decline of the Cod schools in the Northeast, is a result of over fishing by the commercial fleets, not from global warming. Everything that happens in this world is not caused by global warming. It will be a long time before the stocks recover if ever, as this is what happens when a species is over fished or hunted to the point of extinction. I am sorry to interrupt a weather blog about global warming when a cat 5 typhoon is getting ready to impact a country.


Im curious... as a regular and noisy AGW denier what do you consider an effect of global warming?
Record ReportIssued: 7:25 AM CDT Jul. 6, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Record high minimum temperatures set at Baton Rouge Airport... New
Orleans International Airport and Gulfport Airport yesterday...

A record high minimum temperature of 82 degrees was set at Baton
Rouge Airport yesterday. This breaks the old daily record of 80 set
in 2009. It also ties the all time record high minimum temperature
previously set on August 3 2010 and September 13 2008. The
period of record for Baton Rouge Airport begins in January of 1930.

A record high minimum temperature of 82 degrees was set at New
Orleans International Airport yesterday. This breaks the old daily
record of 81 degrees set in 2009. The period of record for New
Orleans International Airport begins in may of 1946.

A record high minimum temperature of 83 degrees was set at Gulfport
Airport yesterday. This breaks the old record of 78 set in 2009.
Record reports for this station may not be as meaningful as those
for stations with 30 year decadal normals. The period of record
at Gulfport Airport begins in September of 2000.

Quoting 145. NativeSun:

The decline of the Cod schools in the Northeast, is a result of over fishing by the commercial fleets, not from global warming. Everything that happens in this world is not caused by global warming. It will be a long time before the stocks recover if ever, as this is what happens when a species is over fished or hunted to the point of extinction. I am sorry to interrupt a weather blog about global warming when a cat 5 typhoon is getting ready to impact a country.
You shouldn't apologize for interrupting "a weather blog about global warming", for that's not what you did. What you *did* do is respond to the recitation of an empirically-proven scientific fact by stating a deeply uninformed opinion. No apologies necessary, my friend...

Now, to the point at hand: anyone who's ever kept a fish as a pet--even a kid with a goldfish won at a grade school carnival--soon learns that temperature changes in water can have a devastating effect on underwater life. And the more drastic that change, the more devastating the effect. So, yes, overfishing hurts. So does warming water; the two are not mutually exclusive...
Alarming Cod Population Decline Linked to Warm Water in Gulf of Maine
Michael Kuhne
By Michael Kuhne, AccuWeather.com Staff Writer
December 14, 2015; 4:21 AM ET


early English explorers set sail across the Atlantic to New England's shores in pursuit of harvesting fragrant sassafras, the abundance of cod in the region's coastal waters led one man to dub the tip of the landmass known today as "Cape Cod."
As a result of this discovery, fishing outposts and commercial fishing operations sprouted in the centuries that followed, making cod an important resource of the colonial era. Today, the once abundant groundfish population has been deteriorating at an alarming rate.

"Since [2007], the biomass has declined quite precipitously," NOAA Research Biologist Michael C. Palmer said.
According to a recent report from NOAA's Northeast Fisheries Science Center, which was penned by Palmer, the species' spawning biomass is nearly five percent less than what is needed to sustain the stock.

Overfishing is a major component in the population decline, but there are a range of other factors that could be contributing causes as well, Palmer said, citing the uncertainty facing scientists now despite their best efforts to reduce how many fish are being harvested.
"We failed to constrain fishing mortality," Palmer said, adding that the current fishing restrictions have not been effective, and that the models overestimated spawning stock size and underestimated fishing mortality.
A recent study published in Science, also attributes warming waters in the Gulf of Maine as a significant factor in the reduction of the region's Atlantic cod population.
The study illustrates that rapid warming of the Gulf of Maine's waters, which is "occurring 99 percent faster than anywhere else on the planet, and has reduced the capacity of cod to rebound from fishing, leading to collapse."
"Managers kept reducing quotas, but the cod population kept declining," Andrew Pershing said.
Pershing is the Chief Scientific Officer of the Gulf of Maine Research Institute (GMRI) and lead author of the study.
"It turns out that warming waters were making the Gulf of Maine less hospitable for cod, and the management response was too slow to keep up with the changes," he said.
According to Pershing's study, which was funded by the Lenfest Ocean Program and the U.S. National Science Foundation, the rapid warming in the Gulf of Maine is linked to changes in the position of the Gulf Stream and to climate oscillations in the Atlantic and Pacific.
"We used surface temperature from satellites operated by NOAA and NASA," Pershing said. "From 2004-2013, the Gulf warmed at a rate of 0.23 C (32.415 F) per year, meaning that it warmed faster than 99.9 percent of the other areas in the ocean over this period."

Both the long-term, and recent warming rates are related to changes in the ocean and the atmosphere, he added.
"In the ocean, we found a connection between the position of the Gulf Stream, a river of warm water to the south of the Gulf of Maine," he said. "When the Gulf Stream shifts to the north, more warm water and less cold water from Canada comes into the Gulf. Warmer atmospheric conditions have also contributed to the temperature changes in the Gulf."
"All fish species, whether or not they're groundfish, are impacted by the environment," Palmer said, adding that more research still needs to be conducted to determine if rising temperatures are directly impacting the cod population.
"Our work suggests that in warmer years, fewer new cod are produced and these cod have a lower probability of survival," Pershing said. "We have not looked at other fish, but we would expect that some of the cold water species will show a similar pattern. Warming waters were likely an important factor in the decline of the shrimp fishery in the Gulf of Maine."



163. MahFL
Quoting 131. Huracan94:

>EDIT: Sanxiantai in Taitung County is even better. Gorgeous sunrise too!


The calm before the storm...
While we talking about this cat 5 making landfall, up north here in the states we are seeing some nasty weather heading there way.
"We used surface temperature from satellites operated by NOAA and NASA," Pershing said. "From 2004-2013, the Gulf warmed at a rate of 0.23 C (32.415 F) per year, meaning that it warmed faster than 99.9 percent of the other areas in the ocean over this period."
Quoting 141. 999Ai2016:

An EWRC for the tropical wx textbooks ? Nepartak :



I'm gonna vote that the EWRC is complete.
Quoting 156. BaltimoreBrian:

Are records kept of the deepest tropical cyclones to make landfall in east-Asian countries--e.g. China, Taiwan, South Korea, Japan? I'm curious where 900 mb would rank as a landfalling tropical cyclone in Taiwan.

I'd like to know more about this too. Meanwhile, I found that list of most devastating typhoons that hit Taiwan 2000-2015 featuring wind speeds, fatalities, etc. but no minimum central pressure estimates unfortunately. Still worth a look though. I'll add this from cwb.gov :
"A total of 383 typhoons between 1897 and 2003 have had a landfall on Taiwan, or have passed offshore without landfall on Taiwan but caused disasters on lands. The peak frequency is in August, followed by July and September. Therefore, Taiwan's typhoon season roughly falls between July and September."
About this EWRC , here's a close-up on July 6 2149 UTC (it's a new dawn, rapid scan floater's back) :

168. MahFL
Quoting 158. VR46L:




Yes that Satelilte is amazing

I understand its Nov 4th Goes R page




GEOS-R is scheduled to go operational late 2017.
Merci 999Ai2016--that is a good link.
170. MahFL
Very good MJO over Taiwan :

As this F16 microwave pass shows, Nepartak has indeed finished the main portion of eyewall replacement, and the remains of the old inner eyewall are subsiding in the new eye as we speak. Also notable in this pass is the lack of dry air tendrils approaching the system from mainland Asia, which would be seen as non-convective turquoise or green wedges (an example can be seen wrapping around the top and left side of this Blas pass). When cross-referencing with other microwave-derived PW imagery, which shows Nepartak well within a deep moisture shroud and dry air still confined to the Asian mainland, I'd say it is unlikely that Nepartak will be weakened by any outside factors until it starts to feel mountain downsloping when is almost on top of Taiwan.



Here in Nola we haven't been below 80F since Friday. If we r still above 80F by midnight..we will break the record.
Quoting 170. MahFL:

Very good MJO over Taiwan :



MJO is coming across the Atlantic very soon.
Brush fire today in Charlotte County of S.W. Florida. That didn't take long for the vegetation to dry out with this heat. We had a lot of rain the first couple weeks of June, but it hasn't rained much lately.

Quoting 176. Patrap:



The morning of the monster that awakes in the Pacific should be the title. Thats a scary image of the typhoon.
GFS ,Euro is forecasting a hugh tropical wave to come off the african coast next thursday. This could be the start of cape verde season.
Will Nepartak strenghten before landfall? If so, to what extent?
Quoting 170. MahFL:

Very good MJO over Taiwan :




I really need to move to the W Pac. It's the only way to escape the SAL, sinking air, shear, drought...
Quoting 175. bigwes6844:


MJO is coming across the Atlantic very soon.



Hopefully
Quoting 142. TROPICALCYCLONEALERT:

Is the EWRC complete?


184. VR46L
Quoting 168. MahFL:



GEOS-R is scheduled to go operational late 2017.


Cool ... I saw the launch is to be in Nov 2016 ,,, Thanks for the info
185. VR46L
Quoting 181. CaribBoy:



I really need to move to the W Pac. It's the only way to escape the SAL, sinking air, shear, drought...


Naw you could move to Europe . Very little of any of those issues here ... but plenty of other issues though !
Some models have moved quite a bit south.



.
Quoting 186. Grothar:

Some models have moved quite a bit south.






That's worse case scenario too if it just clips the south (or, although pretty much impossible but for example, the northern part of Taiwan) part of Taiwan as it wouldn't weaken as much and would leave Mainland China dealing with a possible major or even Super Typhoon as opposed to a Cat 1 or 2.
191. MahFL
Quoting 184. VR46L:



Cool ... I saw the launch is to be in Nov 2016 ,,, Thanks for the info


The other 3 in the series will launched and put into on orbit storage, for several years, which is the normal way of doing things for the GEOS series.
The wildest weather on the Planet is in the eyewall of this one.

Quoting 190. Grothar:



This Typhoon is amazing!
Quoting 192. Patrap:

The wildest weather on the Planet is in the eyewall of this one.




Note the burst of convection well removed from the overall CDO.

This is a calamity in motion.
Very very far out..but the GFS is now attempting to develop something in the MDR
196. MahFL

Quoting 186. Grothar:

Some models have moved quite a bit south.


It's going to be at least 100 miles from the capital.
TWC just said most structures in Taiwan are made from concrete and are well suited to surviving typhoons.
The houses in the Lower Ninth Ward of New Orleans of course were not made of concrete...
90% of the typhoons hot towers are in the nw quad
200. MahFL
Solid eyewall :

Eye's been showing asymmetric features in the last hours, unlike before (screenshot at 2259 UTC) :

Is it related to an EWRC ?
203. VR46L
Sun up

I've published my daily blog, involving Nepartak, Blas, and TD Four-E:

Link
Quoting 201. 999Ai2016:

Eye's been showing asymmetric features in the last hours, unlike before (screenshot at 2259 UTC) :

Is it related to an EWRC ?

Yeah, it's just the remains of the old eyewall subsiding in the new eye. It'll spin around and clear out within a couple of hours.
Quoting 201. 999Ai2016:

Eye's been showing asymmetric features in the last hours, unlike before (screenshot at 2259 UTC) :

Is it related to an EWRC ?
Awesome pic...One can actually see a thunderstorm being whipped with great speed into the eye.



Earl may form from the large tropical wzve forecast to come off the african coast next thursday.
1. For meteorologists.
2. 6 hour summary and analysis.
Super typhoon 02w (Nepartak), located approximately 348 nm
southeast of Taipei, Taiwan, has tracked west-northwestward at 13
knots over the past six hours. Animated enhanced infrared satellite
imagery depicts a very symmetric and tightly wound cyclone with
limited peripheral convective banding wrapping into the system. A
pinhole eye feature is present giving very high confidence to the
initial position. The current intensity is assessed at 150 knots and
is based on current intensity Dvorak estimates from all agencies.
Sty 02w has maintained intensity over the last six hours. The deep
convective symmetric core nearly resembles an annular cyclone
suggesting limited interaction with the surrounding environment
as
it continues to track northwest along the southern periphery of a
subtropical ridge.
3. Forecast reasoning.
A. No change to the forecast philosophy since the previous
prognostic reasoning message.
B. Sty 02w will continue tracking generally west-northwestward
toward central Taiwan along the periphery of the current steering
ridge over the next 24 to 36 hours. While numerical guidance
suggests a small dip in intensity over the next day or so, favorable
environmental conditions and the presently-observed annular
convective structure will limit the potential for significant
weakening prior to landfall.
However, the system will weaken rapidly
as it crosses Taiwan between tau 24 and tau 36. Sty 02w is expected
to reorganize over the Taiwan Strait before making landfall over
China around tau 48, and will again rapidly weaken. The circulation
will begin to round the ridge axis as it makes landfall shifting the
track to the north.
C. In the extended period, sty 02w will continue tracking over
land until it dissipates by tau 96. Numerical models differ
regarding the speed and tightness of the poleward turn once
overland, but show tight grouping in the track making landfall over
Taiwan and China lending high confidence to the jtwc forecast
track.


Srainhoutex on Khou.com weather forum said:

Starting to see a bit of relief from the Heat wave possible later this weekend into next week as the pattern amplifies a bit with a Western trough and possibly even some snow across the elevations of the Cascades into the Northern Rockies. The overnight guidance is suggesting a bit of African Dust arrives this weekend that may allow for some Red Skies at sunrise and sunset Saturday and Sunday. Lowering pressures begin to develop as the Upper Ridge weakens and shifts West in response to a shortwave embedded in the Western trough amplified flow. There are also some indications that a surge of deeper tropical moisture arrives in the Western Gulf early next week with increasing rain chances as the moisture surge arrives along the Eastern Mexico and Texas Gulf Coasts. This coincides with the arrival of the strong Madden Julian Oscillation Pulse that we have been monitoring the past 7 to 10 days and has played a role along with the Convectively Coupled Kelvin Wave in developing the Eastern Pacific Tropical Cyclones. So far we have not seen temperatures reach 100 degrees (actual temperature reading) across portions of N Central, SE and Eastern Texas this summer. Fingers crossed we can receive some cooling showers/storms next week.

How worried should SE Texans be about this strong MJO pulse?. Can we expect a major storm strike on the Texas Coast some days afterward?
Quoting 194. Patrap:



Note the burst of convection well removed from the overall CDO.

This is a calamity in motion.


That's the kind of storm I'm worried that SE Texans may have to deal with on the last week of July when that strong MJO pulse arrives early next week. One wonders what kind of storms that will produce if the CCKW arrives along with it. Pray for Texas!
Quoting 203. VR46L:

Sun up




looks like it changed direction, WNW or even due W instead of NW
New eye rapidly clearing out now on infrared. Now we'll see if the CDO cools/intensifies a little overnight. That would be the final trick in getting the Dvorak numbers towards 8.0...

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.

Quoting 215. Patrap:

Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

Click image for loop.




Looks like it beginning to form that banding feature that the discussions where stating was absent prior. Although it is moving over more Oceanic Heat Content than it just was sitting over. In fact 2 to 3 folds higher than yesterday and this morning...
NASA TV has begun their coverage of the Expedition 48 launch to the ISS.

A American astronaut along with a Japanese and the Russian CDR.

Launch is at 9:36 pm Edt.


Currently breaking dawn at the pad.





NASA TV Live

The latest frame shows a even tighter eye forming and even the wee beginnings of a stadium effect. Note the shadow cast as the rising sun lights up one side.

How strong will Nepartak become?
221. Tcwx2
Link to Taiwan radar: http://www.cwb.gov.tw/V7e/observe/radar/

Cat 3 Blas taking a decidedly more NW heading, maintaining a large eye.
Latest radar frame,Taiwan.

Quoting 217. Patrap:

NASA TV has begun their coverage of the Expedition 48 launch to the ISS.

A American astronaut along with a Japanese and the Russian CDR.

Launch is at 9:36 pm Edt.


Currently breaking dawn at the pad.





NASA TV Live


This is got to be the most International politically correct picture ive seen.

Remnant low level circulation of Agatha interacting with a midlevel low to create a new moisture plume southwest of the California coast. Earlier plume from Agatha now over the Four Corners, but nothing besides some high clouds thus far.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #37
Typhoon Warning
TYPHOON NEPARTAK (T201601)
9:00 AM JST July 7 2016
==========================
In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Nepartak (900 hPa) located at 21.3N 124.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 13 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 23.1N 120.9E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Taiwan
48 HRS: 24.9N 118.8E - 70 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Taiwan Strait
72 HRS: 27.3N 117.8E - 40 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Central China
Quoting 218. Patrap:



Looks like on the current heading, this monster will fortunately strike land in a sparsely populated area of rugged terrain, hopefully weakening it enough to be less disastrous as it passes over the more populated west coast of Taiwan.

Quoting 227. BayFog:


Looks like on the current heading, this monster will fortunately strike land in a sparsely populated area of rugged terrain, hopefully weakening it enough to be less disastrous as it passes over the more populated west coast of Taiwan.


I hope you're right and it hits in the mountainous areas but the south tip and north parts are the least rugged on Taiwan's east coast.
Quoting 211. pureet1948:



That's the kind of storm I'm worried that SE Texans may have to deal with on the last week of July when that strong MJO pulse arrives early next week. One wonders what kind of storms that will produce if the CCKW arrives along with it. Pray for Texas!

Please Lets just wait to worry until we at least have a low to track there to worry it's not worth getting worked up over the possibility of a storm that may or may not form due to conditions that may or may not be favorable several weeks from now.
New eye finally clearing out:

Link
231. IDTH
My thoughts are for anybody in the way of the path Nepartak.
Quoting 204. TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've published my daily blog, involving Nepartak, Blas, and TD Four-E:

Link

Nice writing and I am a critic.
"TD Four-E forms, Likely to Become A Significant Hurricane
A new tropical cyclone has joined the fray this afternoon as the East Pacific tropical cyclone outbreak continues. Tropical Depression Four-E, which spun to life this afternoon much quicker than expected, packs maximum sustained winds of 35 mph in the latest NHC advisory. Satellite animations show that the system is healthy, with a well-defined area of low pressure embedded underneath organized convection. Upper-level outflow is expanding in all directions, and prominent spiral bands are developing to the south and east..."
Quoting 229. MrTornadochase:


Please Lets just wait to worry until we at least have a low to track there to worry it's not worth getting worked up over the possibility of a storm that may or may not form due to conditions that may or may not be favorable several weeks from now.



As a matter of fact, I've been chatting online with a weather hobbyist from Florida. He tells me that the NHC previously thought that with the 200 mb velocity potential, MJO pulse being near the Gulf Coast, we would see an increase in at least convective activity over the GOMEX and Caribbean. But the current and forecast 200 mb velocity potential criteria appear (he said APPEAR!) to indicate that the focus of energy is being confined further south over the extreme EPAC.
He went on to say that it MAY be possible we could activity near Africa increase, based on the MJO forecast, but the subtropical ridge will have to remain weaker than it's been, you know, to keep strong subsidence from drying the atmosphere out and (his personal favorite) from kicking dust out over the Atlantic. Usually it takes a few well defined waves, and minimal to lack of SAL to “sweeten” the atmosphere for future T-waves to strengthen.

Is there anything to what he says?
Quoting 227. BayFog:


Looks like on the current heading, this monster will fortunately strike land in a sparsely populated area of rugged terrain, hopefully weakening it enough to be less disastrous as it passes over the more populated west coast of Taiwan.


Unless it is stair stepping. Very powerful hurricanes will track close to due West from time to time before pulling up to WNW again. There is no assurance that the track currently seen is a long term trend. It could just as easily be a short term blip due to the very strong centrifugal forces being imparted on the system by the low pressure and high wind speeds.
Link

classes and work cancellations for parts of Taiwan.
Quoting 195. washingtonian115:

Very very far out..but the GFS is now attempting to develop something in the MDR

Not going to happen.
Quoting 236. Patrap:



img src="https
://blifetoday.files.wordpress.com/2012/10/266622- but_he_ll_see_the_big_board.jpg">




EWRC complete. This is going to be real bad I'm afraid.
WTPQ30 RJTD 070000
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING
REASONING NO. 9 FOR TY 1601 NEPARTAK (1601)

1. General comments
reasoning of prognosis this time is similar to previous one
Position forecast is mainly based on numerical weather prediction and persistency

2. Synoptic situation
nothing particular to explain

3. Motion forecast
Position accuracy at 0:00 AM UTC is good
typhoon will decelerate for the next 72 hours
typhoon will move west northwestward for the next 24 hours then move north northwestwards

4. Intensity forecsat
typhoon will weaken because landfall is expected within 24 hours
Final Dvorak intensity will be T6.0 after 24 hours
Quoting 213. MAweatherboy1:

New eye rapidly clearing out now on infrared. Now we'll see if the CDO cools/intensifies a little overnight. That would be the final trick in getting the Dvorak numbers towards 8.0...




it almost reminds of Katrina, not to be cliche... very similar structure.

241. Tcwx2
Are there any storm chasers over in Taiwan filming?
Quoting 234. kmanislander:



Unless it is stair stepping. Very powerful hurricanes will track close to due West from time to time before pulling up to WNW again. There is no assurance that the track currently seen is a long term trend. It could just as easily be a short term blip due to the very strong centrifugal forces being imparted on the system by the low pressure and high wind speeds.


Stair-stepping is certainly possible; I seem to recall Soudelor doing likewise when it approached Taiwan just a couple hundred miles further north last year. However, the current trajectory points strongly toward a landfall near Taitung City, a low-lying area of around 100,000. That would be very bad news if current intensity holds.
Taiwan radar. Oh boy.

Quoting 237. help4u:

Not going to happen.

Probably not because it's so far out but you never know...
Quoting 227. BayFog:


Looks like on the current heading, this monster will fortunately strike land in a sparsely populated area of rugged terrain, hopefully weakening it enough to be less disastrous as it passes over the more populated west coast of Taiwan.

the clouds around typhoon Nepartak appear to be getting sheared is this due to them being so close to the typhoon? Edit: I'm thinking this because the Typhoon its self does not appear to be affected.
Quoting 230. TimSoCal:

New eye finally clearing out:

Link

Even if Tiwan is one of the most typhoon/hurricane ready places on Earth a storm like this has the winds of an Ef-4 tornado and even strong buildings are going to get some serious damage. We can just hope this monster doesnt strengthen any more than it has
Philippines Atmospheric Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #7
TYPHOON BUTCHOY
11:00 AM PhST July 7 2016
======================
Typhoon "BUTCHOY" has slowed down while maintaining its strength as it continues to move closer to Taiwan

At 10:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Butchoy [NEPARTAK] (925 hPa) located at 20.9N 125.1E or 235 km east northeast of Itbayat, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 120 knots with gustiness up to 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Signal Warnings

Signal Warning #2
---------------------
Light to Moderate damage to high risk structures
Very light to light damage to medium-risk structures
No damage to very light damage to low risk structures
Unshielded, old dilapidated schoolhouses, makeshift shanties, and other structures of light materials are partially damaged or unroofed
A number of nipa and cogon houses may be partially or totally unroofed
Some old galvanized iron (G.I.) roofs may be peeled or blown off
Some wooden, old electric posts are tilted or downed
Some damage to poorly constructed signs/billboards
In general, the winds may bring light to moderate damage to the exposed communities. Most banana plants, a few mango trees, ipil-ipil and similar types of trees are downed or broken
Some coconut trees may be tilted with few others broken
Rice and corn may be adversely affected
Considerable damage to shrubbery and trees with some heavy-foliaged trees blown down
Wave Height: (Open Sea) 4.1-14.0 meters

Luzon region
===============
1. Babuyan group of Islands

Signal Warning #1
---------------------
Very light or no damage to low risk structures light damage to medium to high risk structures slight damage to some houses of very light materials or makeshift structures in exposed communities.
Some banana plants are tilted, a few downed and leaves are generally damaged twigs of small trees may be broken.
Rice crops, however, may suffer significant damage when it is in its flowering stage.
Wave Height (Open Sea): 1.25-4.0 meters

Luzon region
===============
1. Batanes
2. Calayan

Additional Information
==================
Estimated rainfall amount is from moderate to heavy within the 650 km diameter of the Typhoon.

Fisherfolk are advised not to venture out over the northern and eastern seaboards of Luzon.

The public and the disaster risk reduction and management council concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next weather bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.
249. beell
Abstract
Taiwan is a unique place to study typhoon-orography interactions. On the average, four typhoons encounter the high Central Mountain Range (CMR) per year. This study analyzes the hourly surface wind and pressure structure over the Taiwan area during typhoon Nadine (1971) and typhoon Betty (1961). The results show the center of Nadine passed over the CMR continuously. On the other hand, secondary circulation and a secondary low formed over western Taiwan when typhoon Betty moved close but still to the east of the CMR. The original center and the secondary circulation/low moved in different directions. When the original center of Betty weakened over the east side of the CMR, the secondary circulation/low became the dominating system. This situation is very different from a typhoon track over an open ocean. The formation of the secondary circulation/low started from a pronounced wind shift from northerly to southwesterly over southwestern Taiwan. The southwesterly wind blew against the CMR and induced a ridge in the low pressure zone over the west side of the CMR was separated from the original center over the east side. The southwesterly near the CMR was further deflected to northward by the mountain to form a cyclonic circulation over the west side of the CMR.

Terrestrial, Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences (TAO)/Taipei, Taiwan, R.O.C

Interaction of Typhoons with the Taiwan Orography. Part II: Continuous and Discontinuous Tracks across the Island/AMS Journals Online

Quoting 238. kmanislander:



EWRC complete. This is going to be real bad I'm afraid.
yep most extreme environmental conditions possible
02W/STY/N/C5
impact area eyewall passage will be stripped clean of everything best get out of the way
Nepartak

Latest radar image,Taiwan



Quoting 252. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

02W/STY/N/C5



Look at that eye suddenly showing back up. That's shocking!
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery



Evil! Pentagram eye!!!
Man that's a incredible amount of atmosphere being moved around..

Extreme close up of Nepartak's eye clearing out.
Quoting 265. Skyepony:

Extreme close up of Nepartak's eye clearing out.

it looks mad
Quoting 262. Scotchtape:


Evil! Pentagram eye!!!

Thank goodness! I was afraid it was another Star of David!
Quoting 266. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

it looks mad

Good call, now it's developed some weird angry eyebrow feature..

perfect symmetry winds:

Looks to building more structure towards the outer CDO.

Quoting 252. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

02W/STY/N/C5

Looks to pass south of that forecast track.

Quoting 260. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

JTWC


Nepartak's CMG ring is returning, and CIMSS analyzes the eye temperature is back up to 20C (was 23C yesterday afternoon). We could be looking at more intensification overnight, as crazy as that sounds.

Quoting 273. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Nepartak's CMG ring is returning, and CIMSS analyzes the eye temperature is back up to 20C (was 23C yesterday afternoon). We could be looking at more intensification overnight, as crazy as that sounds.




What is a CMG ring? Google was not my friend.
Taiwan Is doomed
Quoting 274. SunnyDaysFla:



What is a CMG ring? Google was not my friend.

Cold Medium Gray ring:



Agencies use this color curve to assign Dvorak ratings to tropical cyclones. For example, Nepartak currently has a WMG (>9C) eye that is embedded in and surrounded by a W (-69 to -75C) ring for a Dvorak value of T7.0, which would support 140kt (although structure, exact eye temp, etc. come into play with upper-end storms, hence why it's assessed quite a bit higher at 150kt right now).
This think if this storm was headed for one of the big city along the gulf coast or s Fl I bit there would not be a blog has this site would be so over loadded that you can't get on
Thanks for the explanation TA13. Much appreciated.













































































































Possibility of another ERC starting? What's with the dark red band to the west of the eye?
Taiwan Is a major city is it not? Taiwan Is going to be slept clean if the main eye Gos over. Major damage for many high skyscrapers in Taiwan if you have not done so I would get out of the building.

How is Taiwan building code? Can they even with stand a strong cat 5 ?
Stop with the gloom and doom Taz .. Taiwan is a major city with building codes as good as any in the US.. Skyscrapers are not the problem .. poorer areas out side the larger cities will have the most damage ..

The area is hit with large typhoons every few years and are well prepared for severe storms !! Probably better then any large city in Florida !!
Quoting 280. Tazmanian:

Taiwan Is a major city is it not? Taiwan Is going to be slept clean if the main eye Gos over. Major damage for many high skyscrapers in Taiwan if you have not done so I would get out of the building.

How is Taiwan building code? Can they even with stand a strong cat 5 ?


They are built to withstand powerful typhoons, and have weathered plenty. Now, although a storm of Nepartak's intensity is probably rare for them, it's hard to believe they're doomed. They're fairly used to this, and the fact that this year has been so quiet means they have more resources to spare.

I'm sure this one will be one of their more damaging storms, but they will still be on the map when it's said and done.

Crazy how the two North Pacific basins just exploded with activity like this.
Quoting 280. Tazmanian:

Taiwan Is a major city is it not? Taiwan Is going to be slept clean if the main eye Gos over. Major damage for many high skyscrapers in Taiwan if you have not done so I would get out of the building.

How is Taiwan building code? Can they even with stand a strong cat 5 ?


Taipei if you mean, is their main city. It is in the N/E, so as it looks, it should be spared a direct hit. From how it looks, the storm should hit directly at a more sparsely populated area, and where there are mountains, to hopefully disrupt it at least some. So long as it doesn't suddenly veer much more N/E anyway. Gonna hit hard where ever it hits though :/ and the whole island gonna feel it whether near the centre or not :(

Otherwise, hope you're good Taz and weather good to you out there
Since Nathan thinks I should resume blogging here (instead of WordPress), I suppose I will.

Enjoy.
The three counties of eastern Taiwan has completely cancelled work and classes for this afternoon/evening.

Link
In Sea South Of Okinawa

At 15:00 PM JST, Typhoon Nepartak (900 hPa) located at 21.6N 123.4E has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 165 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west northwest at 10 knots.

Storm Force Winds
============
90 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
===========
210 NM from the center in northeastern quadrant
180 NM from the center in southwestern quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T7.5

Forecast and Intensity
===============
24 HRS: 23.4N 120.0E - 75 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Taiwan Strait
48 HRS: 25.5N 118.2E - 60 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm) Overland South China
72 HRS: 27.9N 118.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm) Overland Central China
from what I can see from the JMA advisory map.. at around 18:00-21:00 PM UTC (0300-0600 AM JST) will be landfall.
Greetings from Taiwan folks! I've been living here for the past 3 years now. Everything is normal today, the taiwanese are very much used to strong typhoons and are very well prepared for them. Doesn't mean that they take it lightly, that would be foolish, but everything has been normal today. Sky is overcast right now in Hsinchu City (and extremely hot).
Quoting 288. Eddwin2788:

Greetings from Taiwan folks! I've been living here for the past 3 years now. Everything is normal today, the taiwanese are very much used to strong typhoons and are very well prepared for them. Doesn't mean that they take it lightly, that would be foolish, but everything has been normal today. Sky is overcast right now in Hsinchu City (and extremely hot).


this is not your normal strong typhoons it has winds of 170 mph or higher
Ya! expect a little stronger than what Taiwan is warning for, which is 55 m/s (105 knots).
URGENT - WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL
303 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

FLZ023>025-030>032-124-125-GAZ150>154-164>166-071 515-
/O.NEW.KJAX.HT.Y.0003.160707T1700Z-160707T2200Z/
BAKER-INLAND NASSAU-INLAND DUVAL-UNION-BRADFORD-CLAY-
COASTAL NASSAU-COASTAL DUVAL-WARE-PIERCE-BRANTLEY-INLAND GLYNN-
COASTAL GLYNN-CHARLTON-INLAND CAMDEN-COASTAL CAMDEN-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...MACCLENNY...HILLIARD...JACKSONVILLE...
LAKE BUTLER...STARKE...LAKESIDE...MIDDLEBURG...ORANGE PARK...
YULEE...FERNANDINA BEACH...JACKSONVILLE BEACH...WAYCROSS...
BLACKSHEAR...NAHUNTA...HOBOKEN...EVERETT...THALMA NN...BRUNSWICK...
ST. SIMONS...COUNTRY CLUB ESTATES...DOCK JUNCTION...FOLKSTON...
HOMELAND...WOODBINE...ST. MARYS...KINGSLAND
303 AM EDT THU JUL 7 2016

...HEAT ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM EDT
THIS EVENING...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN JACKSONVILLE HAS ISSUED A HEAT
ADVISORY...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 6 PM
EDT THIS EVENING.

* TEMPERATURE...HIGHS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 90S TO NEAR 100 WITH
HEAT INDEX VALUES IN THE 105 TO 110 DEGREE RANGE THIS
AFTERNOON.

* IMPACTS...VERY HIGH HEAT INDEX TEMPERATURES COULD LEAD TO HEAT
STRESS RELATED INJURIES THIS AFTERNOON. USE CAUTION OUTDOORS AND
STAY HYDRATED.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A HEAT ADVISORY IS ISSUED WHEN THE COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES CREATES HEAT INDICES OF
108 DEGREES OR HIGHER. THE HEAT INDEX IS A MEASURE OF HOW HOT IT
FEELS WHEN THE EFFECT OF HUMIDITY COMBINE WITH THE TEMPERATURE.
HIGH HEAT INDEX VALUES CAN CREATE DANGEROUSLY HOT CONDITIONS
WHERE INDIVIDUALS MAY BECOME CRITICALLY EXHAUSTED IF OUTDOORS.
DRINK PLENTY OF FLUIDS, STAY IN AN AIR-CONDITIONING IF POSSIBLE,
REMAIN OUT OF THE SUN, AND CHECK ON RELATIVES AND NEIGHBORS WHO
MAY BE SENSITIVE TO HEAT RELATED ILLNESSES. TAKE EXTRA
PRECAUTIONS IF YOU WORK OR SPEND TIME OUTSIDE. WHEN POSSIBLE,
RESCHEDULE STRENUOUS ACTIVITIES TO EARLY MORNING OR EVENING. KNOW
THE SIGNS AND SYMPTOMS OF HEAT EXHAUSTION AND HEAT STROKE. WEAR
LIGHT WEIGHT AND LOOSE FITTING CLOTHING WHEN POSSIBLE AND DRINK
PLENTY OF WATER. TO REDUCE RISK DURING OUTDOOR WORK THE
OCCUPATIONAL SAFETY AND HEALTH ADMINISTRATION RECOMMENDS
SCHEDULING FREQUENT REST BREAKS IN SHADED OR AIR CONDITIONED
ENVIRONMENTS. ANYONE OVERCOME BY HEAT SHOULD BE MOVED TO A COOL
AND SHADED LOCATION. HEAT STROKE IS AN EMERGENCY, CALL 911.

&&

$$
Rubber will hit the road here. From we're prepared and had many before, to Nepartak one of the most fierce forces climate can form bearing down for a direct strike. I'm never betting against Mother Nature. Just as soon as you think your ready; your not. Sure hoping for the best.
Good morning over there and best wishes to Taiwan!

Twitter feeds with live coverage of Nepartak's impending landfall:

James Reynolds:
https://twitter.com/earthuncuttv

Josh Morgerman:
https://twitter.com/iCyclone

Military, authorities on standby as Super Typhoon Nepartak nears
2016/07/07 16:57:45
Taipei, July 7 (CNA) Military and government authorities said Thursday that they are on standby for disaster response as Super Typhoon Nepartak, which is expected to bring heavy rain and strong wind to Taiwan, continued its approach toward the country.
Marine Corps vehicles have already been dispatched to potential trouble spots in Taoyuan and Yilan, and a total of 34,617 servicemen have been placed on standby to provide relief and rescue assistance if needed, Defense Minister Feng Shih-kuan said during a legislative session.
In addition, 3,859 military vehicles and 125 inflatable boats are also ready to be deployed to provide disaster assistance, Feng said.
Also Thursday, National Fire Agency officials said during a meeting at the Central Emergency Operation Center that 7,000 of its personnel and 16 helicopters are on standby for rescue missions around Taiwan. ...
294. MahFL
Morning all, Mr Cynical checking in lol.
77F here this am in Orange Park.
295. MahFL
Quoting 275. Tazmanian:

Taiwan Is doomed


No it's not. For starters the eye is going to miss the capital city...
296. MahFL
After a wobble to the west Nepartak seems to be on a solid WNW path now.
not so sure mah the typhoon seems set on the south side of the island nation
For those who haven't yet seen it: a pilot for Ecuador Airlines, Santiago Borja, took this
amazing nighttime thunderstorm picture from the cockpit of a Boeing 737 flying south of Panama:



Washington Post article

Mr. Borja's Instagram Account
Good Morning. All eyes on Taiwan this morning and hoping for the best for them. A monster storm heading over a patch of warm water closer to the coast:





Test; apologies for the double posts below (thought the blog was eating posts again)
303. MahFL
Quoting 297. islander101010:

not so sure mah the typhoon seems set on the south side of the island nation


Yes, moving wnw to the se part of the coastline. The typhoon was south of Taiwan when it formed.

Quoting 295. MahFL:



No it's not. For starters the eye is going to miss the capital city...
Indeed. The only people that are going to have serious problems will be those living in Taitung city and the communities nearby. Norhtern Taiwan is the most vulnerable to typhoons, the capital is there and the mountains are not as tall as they are on the southern or central part of Taiwan. The damage will be huge, but it won t be destructive.
305. MahFL
Looks to me the CDO is contracting, possible strengthening ?

Here is most recent advisory on the storm:

WTPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK) WARNING NR 018
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
070600Z --- NEAR 21.6N 123.4E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 09 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT

WDPN31 PGTW 070900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK)
WARNING NR 18//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON 02W (NEPARTAK), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 235 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED, WITH
HIGH CONFIDENCE, ON SATELLITE EYE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. THE
INTENSITY OF 145 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE REPORTING AGENCIES. STY
02W HAS NEARLY MAINTAINED INTENSITY OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS UNDER
THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND PASSAGE OVER A VERY
WARM SEA SURFACE.
STORM MOTION HAS SLOWED SLIGHTLY AS THE SYSTEM
CONTINUES TO TRACK TOWARD TAIWAN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE TRACK FORECAST HAS BEEN SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTH AND
WEST BASED ON CURRENT NUMERICAL MODEL FORECAST GUIDANCE AND ANALYSIS
OF THE SYNOPTIC STEERING PATTERN. FORECAST TRACK SPEEDS HAVE ALSO
BEEN REDUCED, PARTICULARLY IN THE TAU 48 TO TAU 72 PERIOD WHEN THE
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO TRACK INLAND THROUGH SOUTHEASTERN CHINA.
B. STY 02W WILL CONTINUE TRACKING GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD
ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST UNTIL
IT MAKES LANDFALL IN SOUTH CENTRAL TAIWAN WITHIN THE NEXT 18 TO 24
HOURS. SOME NEAR-TERM WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS THE WESTERN PORTION
OF THE STORM CIRCULATION BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH LAND, BUT THE
SYSTEM WILL REMAIN A VERY INTENSE TYPHOON OR SUPER TYPHOON UNTIL IT
MAKES LANDFALL. STY 02W WILL WEAKEN CONSIDERABLY AS IT CROSSES THE
HIGH TERRAIN OF TAIWAN, BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO REORGANIZE AND
MAINTAIN TROPICAL STORM OR MINIMAL TYPHOON INTENSITY AS IT CROSSES
THE TAIWAN STRAIT
. BY TAU 48, STY 02W WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHEASTERN
CHINA, AND WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 72. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD, LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE
TO THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

Quoting 305. MahFL:

Looks to me the CDO is contracting, possible strengthening ?


Well makes me wonder where are the last three hours of typhoon Nepartak. Those floaters are not exactly reliable. Kinda makes it harder for us observers.
Quoting 241. Tcwx2:

Are there any storm chasers over in Taiwan filming?


I think James Reynolds @EarthUncutTV. I am following him on Twitter, and he was on Periscope live last night.
309. MahFL
Hmm, that's weird the temp here went down from 81f to 80f.
Morning,
while most of the bloggers here are focused on the typhoon about to make landfall on Taiwan, i will turn my attention to the atlantic basin where conditions are getting primed for cyclonic activity. The instability in the MDR is being enhanced by the increase moisture ,as can be seen by the mositure content at both the mid and upper levels.
The shear across the atlantic as whole from the lesser antilles to Africa as well as the Carib and Gomex have dropped considerably. the SST have begun to increase as well the area west of the African coast.. Most of the reliable models are indicating a ramp up im tropical activity towards the last week of July. There is an active tropical wave in the CATL with a low pressure area near 35 W. The GFS as well Euro is forecasting a very large and robust TW to exit the African coast next thursday with more strong waves to come off during the month of august.
By the look of things it is anticipated that the increase in tropical activity is soon to begin.
311. MahFL
Quoting 307. NoobDave:


Well makes me wonder where are the last three hours of typhoon Nepartak. Those floaters are not exactly reliable. Kinda makes it harder for us observers.


Well the radar seems uptodate and the eye is small :

312. MahFL
Looks like the CDO is about onland :


Quoting 311. MahFL:


Well the radar seems uptodate and the eye is small :


I wasn t talking about radar on CWB site, but the one which you posted - a NOAA rainbow floater...I prefer these over CWB radar, but beggars can t be choosers I guess.
The good news for Taiwan is like the Philippines, the long history of frequent super typhoons means that they build very little on the east side of the island. The bad news is that something this strong will dump feet of rain going over the mountains and neither Taiwan nor China needs that. Devastating fresh water flooding can be expected.
315. MahFL
Quoting 312. MahFL:

Looks like the CDO is about onland :




Even at this scale you can see the cloud temps cooled :

316. MahFL
Quoting 307. NoobDave:


Well makes me wonder where are the last three hours of typhoon Nepartak. Those floaters are not exactly reliable. Kinda makes it harder for us observers.



I wonder if the Himawari satellite is in eclipse or something ?
Good article from Aljazeera (1 hour ago) on current prep in Taiwan and expected impacts:

http://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/07/nepartak-hu ge-typhoon-heading-taiwan-160707084908359.html

Taitung and Hualien counties in eastern Taiwan are likely to be the first to be hit by Nepartak. They contain a long, low river valley so flooding is likely. The forecast rainfall is expected to be at least 300mm.Current measurements by NASA suggest cloud tops of 17,000 metres, or 56,000 feet, which mean that thunderheads around the typhoon's eye are punching through the top of the atmosphere. Rainfall rates over the ocean could be as high as 190mm per hour.



Soldiers bring sandbags to northeast Taiwan as typhoon precautions are instigated [EPA/Taiwan Military News Agency]


Quoting 316. MahFL:



I wonder if the Himawari satellite is in eclipse or something ?
Himawari is all right, the best loop (at least for me now) is eastern china on himawari 8 site. The eye is indeed shrinking as you said, but it also appears to be filling with clouds.
Really?

Quoting 211. pureet1948:



That's the kind of storm I'm worried that SE Texans may have to deal with on the last week of July when that strong MJO pulse arrives early next week. One wonders what kind of storms that will produce if the CCKW arrives along with it. Pray for Texas!
Quoting 319. NoobDave:


Himawari is all right, the best loop (at least for me now) is eastern china on himawari 8 site. The eye is indeed shrinking as you said, but it also appears to be filling with clouds.


Indeed, and according to the forecast below Nepartak should hit "only" as a Cat4:

Saved loop. Source for updates.
323. MahFL
Found a bigger pic :

324. MahFL
There is a PWS in Taitung County, Taiwan, currently reporting gusts to 38mph.
Population of Taitung (December 2014), the capital of the county with the same name, where Nepartak's landfall is expected: 106,929



Source Wikipedia with more info.


Taitung seen from a plane.


Source.
Highest wind I see in Taiwan is 62 mph in the Penghu Islands. Just search "Taiwan" on this site and it pulls up a list of all the official reporting stations.
Models continue to pull away from La-Nina. Major bust on so many levels by so many models with regards to predicting a moderate to strong La-Nina just a couple of months ago. Fact is the PDO was the Wild Card here and models just didn't even take that into the equation. Some models even moving toward El-Nino come 2017.

The island of Lanyu (located around 70 km west of the western eyewall) is currently reporting gusts of up to 92 kt (106 mph).
Link

Another very interesting station to follow is the island of Ludao (which lies directly in the path of Nepartak):
Link
Spiral feeder bands from Super Typhoon #Nepartak coming ashore in Taiwan now. Awesome radar feed from @BMcNoldy http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/nep artak16/Nepartak_7Jul16_taiwan_zoom.gif …

This radar loop takes a while to load. Here is the link.
02W/STY/N/C5
Quoting 329. barbamz:

Spiral feeder bands from Super Typhoon #Nepartak coming ashore in Taiwan now. Awesome radar feed from @BMcNoldy http://andrew.rsmas.miami.edu/bmcnoldy/tropics/nep artak16/Nepartak_7Jul16_taiwan_zoom.gif …

This radar loop takes a while to load. Here is the link.


It looks like Nepartak is entering another ERC, what good timing
5
(major) 157 mph or higher
137 kt or higher
252 km/h or higher Catastrophic damage will occur: A high percentage of framed homes will be destroyed, with total roof failure and wall collapse. Fallen trees and power poles will isolate residential areas. Power outages will last for weeks to possibly months. Most of the area will be uninhabitable for weeks or months.


Quoting 331. all4hurricanes:


It looks like Nepartak is entering another ERC, what good timing


Land is already disrupting the circulation, will weaken from now until landfall.
334. MahFL
Quoting 330. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

02W/STY/N/C5



That image is 8 hours out of date.

Up to date :

Nepartak is starting to fall apart, not too surprising. When cyclones make landfall on shorelines with high mountain ranges, a high intensity can not be maintained. This is cyclone will be nothing special for Taiwan, heck it may not even be the strongest one they get hit by this year alone.

Link

Quoting 327. StormTrackerScott:

Models continue to pull away from La-Nina. Major bust on so many levels by so many models with regards to predicting a moderate to strong La-Nina just a couple of months ago. Fact is the PDO was the Wild Card here and models just didn't even take that into the equation. Some models even moving toward El-Nino come 2017.
Lack of La Nina =\= El Nino. El Nino 2015 esta muerto. Muy, muy muerto.

I am not sure how reliable these buoy measurements are or if they are official in any way...but according to this link a bouy measured a pressure of below 900 hpa and wind speeds of above 145 kt (179 mph) one hour ago despite the fact that Nepartak's center didn't passed directly over it!
Link
From iCyclone's facebook page...


9 pm Thursday (Taiwan): Despite my best efforts to punch holes in the theory—and some diligent early-evening recon work along the coastline N of here—the radar data strongly suggest I should stay put in Taitung City. So that's where I'm staying—for now.

I can adjust late tonight if something funny happens—for example, a weird wobble in the track. And I imagine something funny will happen. Taiwanese typhoons are *always* tricky—there's always a last-minute plot twist just before landfall: a fastball on a straight track turns into a junkball and makes a loop; the eye disappears or relocates; etc. Annoying stuff for the accuracy-obsessed chaserdude.

I'm exhausted after 30 straight hours of traveling from the other side of the earth—and I'm curiously numb about facing another Cat 5 so soon after Hurricane PATRICIA. So many lucky escapes have made me cocky. Maybe Super Typhoon NEPARKAT will teach me a lesson in respect.

The car is stowed in underground parking—a good thing, because if the core of this violent typhoon rams densely-populated downtown Taitung City, the sh*tstorm of flying debris is going to be biblical. And I highly doubt my 15th-floor room will be safe. The tower will sway and the windows will surely explode.

Tonight's sunset was curiously gorgeous... and it was preceded by a rainbow. (Never seen that before a typhoon. Random.) But NEPARKAT is fooling no one with these opening pleasantries. Radar and satellite images reveal its true nature: It's a beast. And it's coming.

More later. (Sorry for the long post—lots on my mind.)

P.S. Members in the USA—I'll be on The Weather Channel at 9:50 am EDT (6:50 am Pacific) reporting live.
Quoting 334. MahFL:



That image is 8 hours out of date.

Up to date :



I go by floaters no updating I cant control that
that's the responsibility of the source
Quoting 330. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

02W/STY/N/C5



that 5 hour jump in frame from 8:00 AM UTC to 13:00 PM UTC, XD (Thanks, satellite service and division)
Quoting 310. stoormfury:

Morning,
while most of the bloggers here are focused on the typhoon about to make landfall on Taiwan, i will turn my attention to the atlantic basin where conditions are getting primed for cyclonic activity. The instability in the MDR is being enhanced by the increase moisture ,as can be seen by the mositure content at both the mid and upper levels.
The shear across the atlantic as whole from the lesser antilles to Africa as well as the Carib and Gomex have dropped considerably. the SST have begun to increase as well the area west of the African coast.. Most of the reliable models are indicating a ramp up im tropical activity towards the last week of July. There is an active tropical wave in the CATL with a low pressure area near 35 W. The GFS as well Euro is forecasting a very large and robust TW to exit the African coast next thursday with more strong waves to come off during the month of august.
By the look of things it is anticipated that the increase in tropical activity is soon to begin.



I call this optimism.
Quoting 327. StormTrackerScott:

Models continue to pull away from La-Nina. Major bust on so many levels by so many models with regards to predicting a moderate to strong La-Nina just a couple of months ago. Fact is the PDO was the Wild Card here and models just didn't even take that into the equation. Some models even moving toward El-Nino come 2017.




Always bringing good news lol...
There are loads of awesome surface and subsurface data coming in from buoy NTU2 (around 170 km south-east of Taitung). It is not every day a sub 900 mb tropical cyclone almost directly passes over such a high-quality buoy!

QUOTING 341 CaribBoy

this is not optimism it is a truism
lol
Quoting 345. washingtonian115:



your daily propaganda!
Last post for a few hours but the GFS is at least attempting to develop a wave in the long range.It comes off of Africa as a healthy one

In China, 160 killed, 28 missing in heavy rains, floods
PTI | Jul 7, 2016, 07.24 PM IST
BEIJING: At least 160 people have been killed and 28 others listed missing in China due to heavy rains and floods as the country on Thursday braced for this year's first typhoon approaching the mainland with authorities issuing an early-warning response for disaster relief preparations. ...
On Wednesday, China rushed more troops to the southern city of Wuhan as flood waters from the Yangtze entered the city inhabited by more than 10 million people. Meteorology department officials said Typhoon Nepartak was whirling towards east China's coast and is expected to bring storms tonight. ...


Terrible pics from China. And now they'll have to embrace Nepartak :-(

Quoting 348. washingtonian115:

Last post for a few hours but the GFS is at least attempting to develop a wave in the long range.It comes off of Africa as a healthy one


It has been trying in recent runs.
351. MahFL
102 mph gust on that island.


The grass needs tons of rain!
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




This, from July 1st, turned out to be pretty accurate.
Record ReportIssued: 2:23 AM CDT Jul. 7, 2016 – National Weather Service

... Numerous record high minimum temperatures set or tied
for July 6th...

A record high minimum temperature of 79 degrees was set at Baton
Rouge Airport yesterday. This breaks the old daily record of 78 set
in 2009. The period of record for Baton Rouge Airport began in
January of 1930.

A record high minimum temperature of 83 degrees was set at New
Orleans International Airport yesterday. This breaks the old daily
record of 79 degrees set in 2009. The period of record for New
Orleans International Airport began in may of 1946.

A record high minimum temperature of 83 degrees was set at New
Orleans Lakefront Airport yesterday. This breaks the previous record
of 82 degrees set in 1998. The period of record for New Orleans
Lakefront Airport began in January of 1937.

A record high minimum temperature of 83 degrees was set at Slidell
Airport yesterday. This breaks the previous record of 76 degrees set
in 2010. The period of record for Slidell Airport began in April
1994.

A record high minimum temperature of 83 degrees was set at Gulfport
Airport yesterday. This breaks the old record of 78 set in 2010.
Record reports for this station may not be as meaningful as those
for stations with 30 year decadal normals. The period of record
at Gulfport Airport began in September of 2000.

A record high minimum temperature of 75 degrees was tied at
McComb/Pike County Airport yesterday. The last time this occurred
was in 1998. The period of record at McComb Airport began in October
1948.

A record high minimum temperature of 83 degrees was tied at New
Orleans Audubon yesterday. The last time this occurred was in 1900.
The period of record at New Orleans Audubon began in January 1893.

Quoting 355. Patrap:



If that patch of lesser OHC wasn't there, it might have Tipped the record.
Well, soon.
Quoting 352. CaribBoy:



The grass needs tons of rain!


we are getting very dry as well all lawn cutting has been suspended here by me till we get sufficient rains to spur
re greening regrowth so hot and dry watering is useless suns heat is just burning the grass up leaves on trees getting droopy not looking the way they should but its the heat and lack of rains doing it

no grass cutting till end of august early sept for sure long hot dry summer continues
I was joking with landscaper yesterday saying maybe we should get into a tropical cactus look or semi arid desert theme for ornamentation of property lol

typo corrected dessert double s sensitive keys
Quoting 360. KEEPEROFTHEGATE:

I was joking with landscaper yesterday saying maybe we should get into a tropical cactus look or semi arid desert theme for ornamentation of property lol

typo corrected dessert double s sensitive keys


I have rocks and they don't need much water(sic). Hows your temps Keeper? 9:00AM PDT 66.6F or 19.22C
the great spin down in the middle of
nowhere

03E

PWS shows 84.4
airport temps as of noon obs

Temperature:

83.8°F

Dewpoint:

67.3°F

Humidity:

57%

Wind:

E 2 mph

Humidex:

97
Quoting 336. Neapolitan:

Lack of La Nina =\= El Nino. El Nino 2015 esta muerto. Muy, muy muerto.


That will not stop [redacted] from predicting an El Nino *next* year can claiming to be correct when it inevitably shows up. Enjoy your crow whether it be in 2017, 2018, or ... 2045.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 350. Climate175:

It has been trying in recent runs.

Too much dust for development. Too early in the season.
incredible shrinking storm

02W/STY/N/C4
370. MahFL
Lanyu gust of 110mph.
371. beell
As Nepartak nears the central (N/S) mountain range of Taiwan, the lower, environmental steering flow may be shunted to the south a bit-resulting in at least a slight turn to the left with respect to forward direction along with a decrease in forward speed.

Or it may just plow straight on across the island, lol.

Some degradation of the SW eyewall-but still a powerful storm.
Quoting 367. BayFog:


Too much dust for development. Too early in the season.
.
373. vis0
i hope the people being affected by 2016 Nepartak stay safe, BUt i have to add this comment.

It might have been posted already.
 Did anyone see the VId of a gentleman trying to hold 2 (mostly glass ) doors shut with his hand as winds / gusts went up to 90mph. Each hand on each doors push to open full length levers ...wait for wait for it...a slight wind gust ran over the outside of the door and KABOOM both doors blew wide open. He wasn't hurt but the ease in which those doors blew open, WOW.  wait fer it wait fer it... guy looked around and went slightly outside grabbed both doors and went back to (trying) to hold doors shut.
Nepartak-Center almost offshore.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 JUL 2016 Time : 021000 UTC
Lat : 22:54:08 N Lon : 119:48:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 936.3mb/115.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.2 5.2 4.7

Center Temp : -66.3C Cloud Region Temp : -67.0C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG