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Category 5 Hurricane Patricia Hitting Mexico's Pacific Coast

By: Jeff Masters 10:13 PM GMT on October 23, 2015

Incredibly strong Hurricane Patricia is barreling ashore on the Southwest coast of Mexico near La Manzanilla as a Category 5 storm. At 5 pm EDT Friday, NHC put Patricia's intensity at 190 mph winds. Early on Friday morning, Patricia reached a remarkable intensity of 200 mph sustained winds, which the storm maintained for 12 hours. These are the highest reliably-measured surface winds on record for a tropical cyclone, anywhere on the Earth. At 2:30 pm Friday afternoon, October 23, 2015, a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft measured a central pressure of 879 mb--the lowest pressure ever measured in a hurricane in the Western Hemisphere. The previous strongest Eastern Pacific hurricane was Hurricane Linda of 1997, with a pressure of 902 mb (estimated from satellite imagery), and the strongest Atlantic hurricane on record was Hurricane Wilma of 2005, with 882 mb. Patricia does not beat the record-lowest pressure in the Western Pacific, though, which is held by Super Typhoon Tip of 1979: 870 mb.


Figure 1. MODIS image of Hurricane Patricia as seen from NASA's Aqua satellite on Friday, October 23, 2015. At the time, Patricia was a Category 5 storm with 200 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Hurricane Patricia as seen from the International Space Station on Friday afternoon, October 23, 2015. Image credit: Commander Scott Kelly.


Figure 3. Wind (black) and surface pressure (red) from the afternoon NOAA hurricane hunter flight on October 23, 2015 into Hurricane Patricia, off the Pacific coast of Mexico. The aircraft measured peak winds at their flight level of 10,000 feet of up to 145 knots (165 mph). The winds showed a double maximum in both sides of the eyewall as the plane flew crossed the calm eye, indicating that an eyewall replacement cycle was likely underway. The eye was a tiny 6 miles in diameter at this time. Image credit: Levi Cowan, tropicaltidbits.com.

Patricia weakening at landfall
Late-afternoon data from a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft in Patricia indicates that the hurricane is forming concentric eyewalls, presaging an eyewall replacement cycle, where the inner eyewall collapses and is replaced by an outer eyewall that forms out of a spiral band. This process typically weakens the peak winds of the hurricane by up to 20 mph, but spreads out the highest winds of the storm over a larger area. This process typically reduces the wind damage from a storm, but makes a larger storm surge, leading to more storm surge damage.


Figure 4. Radar image of Hurricane Patricia as seen from NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft N43RF at 1:23 pm EDT October 23, 2015. Image credit: NOAA Hurricane Hunters Facebook page.

Patricia the fastest-intensifying Western Hemisphere hurricane on record
Patricia's central pressure dropped an astonishing 100 mb in 24 hours, making it the fastest-intensifying hurricane ever observed in the Western Hemisphere. Patricia's pressure at 5 am EDT Thursday, October 22, 2015 was 980 mb, and was 880 mb at 5 am EDT Friday. The previous record was a drop of 97 mb in 24 hours for Hurricane Wilma of 2005 (between 1200 UTC 18 October - 1200 UTC 19 October), according to the official NHC report for the storm. Patricia's intensification rate was very close to the WMO-recognized world record for fasting-intensifying tropical cyclone: 100 millibars in just under 24 hours by Super Typhoon Forrest in the Northwest Pacific in 1983.

Patricia is estimated to have intensified 85 knots (100 mph) in 24 hours, from a tropical storm to a Category 5 hurricane. In the Eastern Pacific, Hurricane Linda of 1997 is the only storm on record to have intensified at this rate. The Atlantic's record holder for largest wind increase in 24 hours is held by Hurricane Wilma of 2005, which intensified from a 60-knot tropical storm to a 150-knot Category 5 hurricane--an increase of 90 knots (105 mph). Air Force reconnaissance observations indicated that the eye of Wilma contracted to a diameter of 2 n mi during this time; this is the smallest eye known to National Hurricane Center (NHC) staff. Patricia's eye diameter was 8 miles at it's peak strength.


Figure 5. Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity (MPHI) for the Eastern Pacific on October 23, 2015, calculated according to a method developed by Dr. Kerry Emanuel. The MPHI for the waters traversed by Hurricane Patricia was less than 880 mb. Few storms ever approach their maximum theoretical intensity, but Hurricane Patricia did--reaching 879 mb at 2 pm EDT October 23, according to measurements from the Hurricane Hunters. The Maximum Potential Hurricane Intensity is maximized as the sea surface temperature rises and as the atmosphere grows more unstable (cold, dry air aloft combined with warm, moist air near the surface.) Image credit: COLA/IGES.

Patricia the third strongest tropical cyclone in history (by wind)
Patricia's 200 mph sustained winds make it the 3rd strongest tropical cyclone in world history (by 1-minute averaged wind speed.) Officially, here are the strongest tropical cyclones in world history, according to the Joint Typhoon Warning Center and the National Hurricane Center (using 1-minute averaged sustained winds):

Super Typhoon Nancy (1961), 215 mph winds, 882 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 2 in Japan, killing 191 people.
Super Typhoon Violet (1961), 205 mph winds, 886 mb pressure. Made landfall in Japan as a tropical storm, killing 2 people.
Super Typhoon Ida (1958), 200 mph winds, 877 mb pressure. Made landfall as a Cat 1 in Japan, killing 1269 people.
Super Typhoon Haiyan (2013), 195 mph winds, 895 mb pressure. Made landfall in the Philippines with 190 mph winds.
Super Typhoon Kit (1966), 195 mph winds, 880 mb. Did not make landfall.
Super Typhoon Sally (1964), 195 mph winds, 895 mb. Made landfall as a Cat 4 in the Philippines.

However, it is now recognized (Black 1992) that the maximum sustained winds estimated for typhoons during the 1940s to 1960s were too strong. The strongest reliably measured tropical cyclones were both 10 mph weaker than Patricia, with 190 mph winds—the Western Pacific's Super Typhoon Tip of 1979, and the Atlantic's Hurricane Allen of 1980. Both storms had a hurricane hunter aircraft inside of them to measure their top winds. Haiyan's winds were estimated using only satellite images, making its intensity estimate of lower confidence.

Dr. Hugh Willoughby, former head of NOAA's Hurricane Research Division, had this to say about the winds measured in Super Typhoon Nancy and the other high-end typhoons from this list from the 1960s:

"I would not take the winds seriously because reconnaissance meteorologists estimated them visually. A decade later when I flew with the VW-1 hurricane hunters, we had the same Doppler system used to measure the winds of Typhoon Nancy. It tracked the aircraft motion relative to the (possibly moving) sea surface. It couldn't get a coherent signal in high winds because the beam reflected from both the actual surface (whatever that is) and blowing spray. Visual estimates are dubious because the surface (under the eyewall!) is hard to see unless you are flying below cloud base (200-300 m) and also because appreciably above 115 mph, it's completely white with blowing spray. We used to think that we could estimate stronger winds from the decreasing coverage of slightly greenish patches where the spray was thinner. I now think that we were kidding ourselves. In those days the distinctions among wind gust, sustained one-minute winds, etc., were less well defined than they are now. So we may never know the 1960s reconnaissance data really means!"

Forecast for Patricia: Mexico at dire risk
The coast of Southwest Mexico is at risk of tremendous damage from wind, storm surge, and flooding rains. The right front quadrant of the storm, near the town of La Manzanilla, can expect gigantic waves atop a devastating storm surge. In a Friday afternoon blog post, storm surge expect Dr. Hal Needham says he expects a storm surge of 16.5 ft (5 m), which will be accompanied by large, destructive waves. This would be the largest storm surge in the modern history of Western Mexico. Fortunately, hurricane-force winds are likely to miss the resort town of Puerto Vallarta, which lies on the weaker left side of the hurricane. In their 5 pm EDT Friday WInd Probability Forecast, NHC gave Puerto Vallarta a 19% chance of seeing hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph. However, the town of Manzanillo (population 100,000), on the right-front quadrant of Patricia, had a 49% chance of hurricane-force winds.

After landfall, Patricia will slam into very rugged terrain, triggering torrential rains with the risk of severe flooding and mudslides. The mountainous trek will shred Patricia’s low-level circulation quickly, but the hurricane’s upper-level circulation will proceed quickly northeastward, arriving near South Texas by Sunday. Models suggest that a nontropical or hybrid low-pressure center may develop near the upper-level center at that point. Patricia’s presence will exacerbate a multi-day rain/flood episode already under way across Texas, with widespread 4” - 8” rainfall amounts across the eastern half of the state expected between now and Monday. Localized totals well over a foot are quite possible.

iCyclone storm chasers in the path of Patricia
Storm chaser Josh Morgerman, who intercepted Super Typhoon Haiyan at landfall in Tacloban in the Philippines, is aiming to be in the path of Hurricane Patricia's eye at landfall in Mexico. From the iCyclone Facebook page: "12:30 pm Friday (Jalisco): Erik and I noticed on satellite loops this morning that Hurricane PATRICIA's eye took a sharp hook to the right. We waited a little, then realized it was more than a wobble--so we loaded up the car and raced down Highway 200. Now we're in La Manzanilla, which we think could be very close to the cyclone's landfall point. But more adjustments might be needed. It's calm but raining very hard. La Manzanilla is an eerie ghost town. Everything is boarded up and shuttered. Still can't believe what's just offshore. You'd have to be a Cat-5 idiot not to be scared of it. Despite years and years of chase experience, I'm just in awe of this one." Live reports from the iCyclone team will be airing on The Weather Channel all day.

Other Links:
Manzanillo beach cam
Puerto Vallarta webcam
‪International Space Station Footage of Hurricane Patricia‬


Video 1. GOES-13 satellite loop of Hurricane Patricia.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

501. beell
The outflow boundary that moved across TX has effectively moved the frontal boundary south this morning. The next spot on the map for heavier rains may be the middle TX coast into the early evening. A somewhat focused southeasterly 25 knot LLJ (which may be a bit lower than some forecasts from yesterday) over the Victoria area based on SPC meso analysis.


16z SPC mslp (pre-frontal trough added)


Current SPC 850 mb heights, temps, dp's, winds

The lovely diffluence aloft from yesterday does not appear as favorable today but all of SE TX lies continues to be in the rear entrance region of the upper jet.

Tonight, any extreme rain will depend on the strength/track of the surface low. Not much happening in that department so far. A hint of a low at the southern end of the surface trough just north and inland from Brownsville.

---------------------------------



(click image for all 1630Z Day 1 graphics)

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1125 AM CDT SAT OCT 24 2015

VALID 241630Z - 251200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT
ALONG THE LOWER/MIDDLE TX GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS ALONG THE TX GULF COAST...

...THERE IS A MRGL RISK OF SVR TSTMS OVER PARTS OF LOWER
MI/IND/OH...

...SUMMARY...
THUNDERSTORMS WITH ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES AREA BETWEEN ABOUT 4 TO 8 P.M. EDT. ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS AND TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG THE TEXAS GULF COAST THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

...TX...
MORNING SATELLITE LOOPS SHOW THE REMNANTS OF HURRICANE PATRICIA TRACKING RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS NORTHERN MEXICO...APPROACHING DEEP SOUTH TX. 12Z MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT RAPID LOW LEVEL CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR AS THE UPPER VORTICITY CENTER APPROACHES THE MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO. LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS ARE ALSO EXPECTED TO STRENGTHEN RAPIDLY THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT...RESULTING IN FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES FOR ROTATING STORMS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES. THE PRIMARY UNCERTAINTY INVOLVES THE DETAILS OF THE TRACK OF THE SURFACE LOW...AND THE INLAND EXTENT OF A FAVORABLE CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. HAVE OPTED TO UPGRADE THE IMMEDIATE TX GULF COAST TO SLIGHT RISK DUE TO THE CONDITIONAL RISK OF TORNADOES FROM LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.

...GREAT LAKES REGION...
A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EASTWARD ACROSS PARTS OF LOWER MI/IND/OH THIS AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO FORM ALONG THE FRONT...AFFECTING THE MARGINAL RISK AREA. CONSIDERABLE CLOUD COVER AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIMIT HEATING/DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...RATHER STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND FAVORABLE SHEAR PROFILES MAY RESULT IN A FEW LOW-TOPPED FAST-MOVING ROTATING/BOWING CONVECTIVE STRUCTURES THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. THE STRONGEST CELLS COULD PRODUCE LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

..HART/BROYLES.. 10/24/2015
Show me some footage of absolutely skinned vegetation anywhere near where that storm made landfall, even if it is just off the beach, and I'll say a strong hurricane hit there. Otherwise, nothing.

Quoting 499. win1gamegiantsplease:

Has a Cat-5 ever hit the Pacific side of Mexico since records started? I can name a few on the Atlantic side for sure.
36 hrs.
Quoting 470. BahaHurican:

How close is that to that Bastrop fire that was burning?


Draw a line from the center of Austin to center of Houston. The fire was located almost exactly 1/4 of the way from Austin.
Quoting 500. RetiredChiefP:



I am in the Atascocita area...you, BrazoriaMan, as well as the rest of the peeps in the Houston and Texas area stay safe. I am taking this rain event reasonably. I went shopping for basic storm supplies earlier today and am waiting the rain out.
Lake Jackson here. No more than sprinkles so far. I filled the gas tank on my RV in case we lose power for a lengthy period. RV generators are a great backup! (Centerpoint Energy was warning Houston people to watch for outages that might last for hours or even days.) Other than that, all I can do is twiddle my thumbs and read the blog.
Looking at the area west of Patricia's landfall location, I am wondering how much more rain that "tail" will bring to the area....
Quoting 454. Skyepony:

Looks like a freight train derailed in Corsicana flooding where there was over 18" of rain.

Flooding causes train derailment by CNN

In North Texas, near Corsicana, a 64-car Union Pacific freight train derailed overnight after heavy flooding washed away a section of the track. No one was hurt, but two crew members were forced to seek safety when a section of the derailed train became submerged in the rising waters, the local authorities said.


I wonder how much fuel spilled into the water.
Patricia was 'elevated' storm. Not uncommon, but extrapolations of surface wind velocities do not apply when a storm is not touching the ground..
Quoting 502. franckinator:

Show me some footage of absolutely skinned vegetation anywhere near where that storm made landfall, even if it is just off the beach, and I'll say a strong hurricane hit there. Otherwise, nothing.


Quoting 490. franckinator:

Patricia's remnants are being swept away rapidly, but it could be the rain predictions for the delta are being underestimated, especially if remnant low pressure and cyclonic flow are able to tap and drag gulf moisture north.


I've been saying this all along.......even a normal low tracking tracking from the four corners area (where the post-Mexican weather usually develops) would bring a lot of rain.. Here you have circulation and a track over the Gulf.....exact path TBD. My amateur guess is all bets are off as to how Mother Nature resolves this....
Quoting 505. lhwhelk:

Lake Jackson here. No more than sprinkles so far. I filled the gas tank on my RV in case we lose power for a lengthy period. RV generators are a great backup! (Centerpoint Energy was warning Houston people to watch for outages that might last for hours or even days.) Other than that, all I can do is twiddle my thumbs and read the blog.


Same here...filled up the gas tanks, gas cans, tested out the new Predator generator...stocked up on soups, dry goods, beer and smoke (not to be flip or take this event lightly...but this old guy has to have some beer and smokes or I get grouchy). I have to make a trip to the Jersey Village area in about an hour...but plan on being safely back home by 5pm. It is raining lightly here on the NE side. Luckily, a few years ago, the transformer in my back yard gave up the ghost and it was replaced with a brand new transformer, so our power usually comes back up fairly quickly. As long as the winds stay slow, and people stay off the roads (thus NOT running into power poles), we should be good up here. You stay safe my friend...your side of the city may take it heavier than we will.
From Click2Houston:

Galveston County officials have issued a voluntary evacuation for Bolivar Peninsula, including the unincorporated areas of Port Bolivar, Crystal Beach, High Island and Gilchrist.

National Weather Service forecasts have predicted 8-12 inches of rain to the area, combined with 4-5 ft. tides and high winds, which could hinder transportation to and from the peninsula. Power outages are also possible as a result of gale force winds.

Judge Mark Henry has warned residents of the area they might find themselves isolated as the heaviest winds and rains wash ashore, which could cut people off from emergency services. The storm is expected to reach Galveston County by 6 p.m. Saturday.

The combination of high winds and tides may also force the temporary disruption of the Bolivar Ferry raising the possibility the area could be cut off during the storm. As of 11 a.m. Saturday ferry services were still running.
512. MahFL
Houston power outages 3028, I wonder if that's normal or higher due to the rain ?
513. MahFL
My wife and I vacated in Galveston this summer, so watching with extra interest. We had a great time too.
514. beell
Beware...extreme weather geekery below-but something for everybody with an interest.

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/24/15 1729Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1715Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPE FOR ONGOING/DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN THREAT

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LARGER SCALE TROF OVER NW MEXICO HAS FURTHER AMPLIFIED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN IMPULSE, WHERE GOES RGB WAS SHOWING A CONTINUED STRATOSPHERIC EXTRUSION WITHIN UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE, OVER NW MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DOWNSTREAM WCB/SUBTROPICAL STREAM TO TAKE ON AN INCREASING AREA OF CURVATURE WITH DEVELOPING INFLECTION APPROACHING W TX SUGGESTIVE OF AN INCREASE IN LARGER SCALE FORCING. SMALLER SCALE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA CONTINUES LIFTING NE WITHIN THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM AND WAS APPROACHING THE MFE REGION AND HELPING TO ENHANCE MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. CONCURRENT WITH THIS, HAVE NOTED A NUMBER OF ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL TX COAST EXTENDING WSW TO S TX. AT THE SURFACE, LATEST MESOANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THAT EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS FROM THE VIC OF JUST W OF SHV AND ARCING S TOWARDS JUST N OF LRD. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A PRESSURE FALL AXIS DEVELOPING FROM PORTIONS OF SE TX EXTENDING SW TOWARDS FAR S TX AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENSUE OVER PORTIONS OF S TX AHEAD OF SHARPENING UPSTREAM TROF. AREA VWPS WERE ALSO INDICATING THAT 85H LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE BEGUN TO BACK AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT INTO WHAT SHOULD BE AN INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENIC BOUNDARY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SE TX COASTAL REGIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. S SURGING EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF S TX WILL ALSO MERGE WITH A NUMBER OF DEVELOPING AREAS OF CONVECTION TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THIS REGION. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SE TX COASTAL REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM PW VALUES APPEARED TO BE IN THE VIC OF THE CRP REGION WHERE RECENT GPS DATA WAS INDICATING PW VALUES OF AROUND 2.60". INCREASING INFLOW TOWARDS DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OVERSPREADING THE REGION WOULD ALSO IMPLY A THREAT OF BACKWARD PROPAGATING/REGENERATING CONVECTIVE COMPONENTS WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG CENTRAL AND SE TX COASTAL REGIONS TO ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

Link

Notice the outflow boundary moving south as it gets overrun. I'm seeing the start of some rotation in that area around Kingsville. Do you see it?
Already a tornado in my suburb of Pearland near Houston. Knocked out power to 6000 homes.
Austin finally got the advertised rains. Kudos to the NWS for hitting the amounts spot on.....So far Austin proper has already received upwards of 6 inches of rain so far. Just what was predicted. While many events have been cancelled so far, the two big events for the day are on-going. The UT football game is at halftime, yes, with the longhorns winning. Maybe rain is the magic potion. The other event is the International F-1 race. The race is still a go with small adjustments to the afternoon schedule. The afternoon continues to be wet, although the rains should wind down in Austin over the next 2-3 hours.
518. MahFL
PWAT's of 2.6in is crazy.
Thanks same to ya! I have been doing some cleaning and prep today. Had to run to lowes for a tarp for my old 75 F150. Looks like if we get some tropical storm winds I will need to bungee cord it down. Got some food but not much last night. Already had a decent shower here and a tornado in Pearland. Y'all stay safe as well!

Quoting 505. lhwhelk:

Lake Jackson here. No more than sprinkles so far. I filled the gas tank on my RV in case we lose power for a lengthy period. RV generators are a great backup! (Centerpoint Energy was warning Houston people to watch for outages that might last for hours or even days.) Other than that, all I can do is twiddle my thumbs and read the blog.
520. txjac
Houston Saturday Events Canceled:

- Moonrise Party on the Plaza - CANCELED

- Tents in Town (Bellaire) - CANCELED

- Tricks and Treats in the Park (Missouri City) - CANCELED

- Houston Halloween Fest and Zombie Walk - CANCELED

- Tompkins High School homecoming dance (Katy I.S.D.) - CANCELED

- Cypress Lakes High School homecoming dance (Cy-Fair I.S.D.) - CANCELED

- HISD Football Games:

Milby vs. Chavez - Barnett Stadium - 11 a.m.
Wheatley vs. Washington - Barnett Stadium - 2:30 p.m.
Madison vs. Sharpstown - Butler Stadium - 11 a.m.
Houston vs. Bellaire - Cowart Stadium - 11 a.m.
Davis vs. Yates - Dyer Stadium (Location Changed) -1 p.m.
Lamar vs. Westbury - Delmar Stadium - 11 a.m.
Humble vs. Barbers Hill - 1 p.m.
- Houston Rockets' Practice and Fan Fest - CANCELED

- TSU Homecoming Football Game - Rescheduled for 12 p.m. on Saturday, October 24. Gates will open at 11 a.m.
I am just happy I understood a good portion of it lol. Thanks for the share!


Quoting 514. beell:

Beware...extreme weather geekery below-but something for everybody with an interest.

SATELLITE PRECIPITATION ESTIMATES..DATE/TIME 10/24/15 1729Z
SATELLITE ANALYSIS BRANCH/NESDIS---NPPU---TEL.301-683-1404
LATEST DATA USED: GOES-13 1715Z HANNA
.
LOCATION...TEXAS...
.
ATTN WFOS...LCH...HGX...CRP...EWX...BRO...
ATTN RFCS...WGRFC...
.
EVENT...UPDATE TO EARLIER SPE FOR ONGOING/DEVELOPING HEAVY RAIN THREAT

SATELLITE ANALYSIS AND TRENDS...LATEST WV IMAGERY INDICATES THAT LARGER SCALE TROF OVER NW MEXICO HAS FURTHER AMPLIFIED THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO THE AMPLIFICATION OF AN IMPULSE, WHERE GOES RGB WAS SHOWING A CONTINUED STRATOSPHERIC EXTRUSION WITHIN UPPER LEVEL FRONTAL ZONE, OVER NW MEXICO. THIS HAS ALLOWED FOR THE DOWNSTREAM WCB/SUBTROPICAL STREAM TO TAKE ON AN INCREASING AREA OF CURVATURE WITH DEVELOPING INFLECTION APPROACHING W TX SUGGESTIVE OF AN INCREASE IN LARGER SCALE FORCING. SMALLER SCALE REMNANTS OF PATRICIA CONTINUES LIFTING NE WITHIN THIS SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE STREAM AND WAS APPROACHING THE MFE REGION AND HELPING TO ENHANCE MESOSCALE FORCING WITHIN THE BROADER AREA OF LARGER SCALE FORCING. CONCURRENT WITH THIS, HAVE NOTED A NUMBER OF ENHANCING AREAS OF CONVECTION OVER THE CENTRAL TX COAST EXTENDING WSW TO S TX. AT THE SURFACE, LATEST MESOANALYSIS WAS INDICATING THAT EFFECTIVE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WAS FROM THE VIC OF JUST W OF SHV AND ARCING S TOWARDS JUST N OF LRD. OVER THE PAST FEW HOURS HAVE BEGUN TO SEE A PRESSURE FALL AXIS DEVELOPING FROM PORTIONS OF SE TX EXTENDING SW TOWARDS FAR S TX AND WOULD EXPECT THIS TO CONTINUE AS CYCLOGENESIS SHOULD CONTINUE TO ENSUE OVER PORTIONS OF S TX AHEAD OF SHARPENING UPSTREAM TROF. AREA VWPS WERE ALSO INDICATING THAT 85H LOW LEVEL WIND FIELDS HAVE BEGUN TO BACK AND THIS SHOULD HELP TO ENHANCE BOTH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TRANSPORT INTO WHAT SHOULD BE AN INCREASINGLY FRONTOGENIC BOUNDARY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SE TX COASTAL REGIONS THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. S SURGING EFFECTIVE BOUNDARY INTO PORTIONS OF S TX WILL ALSO MERGE WITH A NUMBER OF DEVELOPING AREAS OF CONVECTION TO ENHANCE THE ONGOING HEAVY RAIN THREAT IN THIS REGION. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO REMAIN HIGHLY ANOMALOUS AND SHOULD INCREASE ALONG THE CENTRAL AND SE TX COASTAL REGION WITHIN AN AREA OF ENHANCED MOISTURE FLUX THROUGHOUT THE AFTERNOON. MAXIMUM PW VALUES APPEARED TO BE IN THE VIC OF THE CRP REGION WHERE RECENT GPS DATA WAS INDICATING PW VALUES OF AROUND 2.60". INCREASING INFLOW TOWARDS DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OVERSPREADING THE REGION WOULD ALSO IMPLY A THREAT OF BACKWARD PROPAGATING/REGENERATING CONVECTIVE COMPONENTS WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG CENTRAL AND SE TX COASTAL REGIONS TO ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

Link
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Looking at the stone hedges around my oak trees, the trench of dirt between the stone and grass is dry and hard. Will be holding water I assume later tonight
I realize that there's a big storm out there, historic, and the camage reports have yet to come in, but this OT story about corexit "The People Are Dying: Evacuate the Gulf Now!" will be if interest to some.

Link
INCREASING INFLOW TOWARDS DIFFLUENT FLOW PATTERN OVERSPREADING THE REGION WOULD ALSO IMPLY A THREAT OF BACKWARD PROPAGATING/REGENERATING CONVECTIVE COMPONENTS WITHIN WEAKLY UNSTABLE ENVIRONMENT ALONG CENTRAL AND SE TX COASTAL REGIONS TO ENHANCE HEAVY RAIN THREAT.

(heavy breathing)
Quoting 524. MontanaZephyr:

I realize that there's a big storm out there, historic, and the camage reports have yet to come in, but this OT story about corexit "The People Are Dying: Evacuate the Gulf Now!" will be if interest to some.

Link
Totally and absolutely nuts. Why would anyone believe this?
Quoting 416. Patrap:



Not really, as it is a 2000 Model with only 29K, as Im needing a engine for my 1971 Hemi Challenger project.

My deuce was the last year they were carbureted.








LOL, the guy who constantly posts about climate change and the environment striking back has a Harley with carbs he is trying to sell to buy an Elephant motor for his '71 Challenger.
Quoting 528. NOLALawyer:



LOL, the guy who constantly posts about climate change and the environment striking back has a Harley with carbs he is trying to sell to buy an Elephant motor for his '71 Challenger.


Jokes on you, it runs on algae, elbow grease, and the spirit of America.
530. Jawja
Patricia was the fastest-intensifying Western Hemisphere hurricane on record.
It appears to have also been the fastest dissipating as well. Is that true?