WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Enawo Hits Madagascar

By: Jeff Masters 2:44 PM GMT on March 07, 2017

Extremely dangerous Tropical Cyclone Enawo hit northeastern Madagascar near 3 am EST Tuesday as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Enawo is the third strongest tropical cyclone on record to strike the island, and severe impacts are likely from the storm’s torrential rains, high winds, and large storm surge (though in their 1 am EST (6 UTC) Tuesday advisory, Meteo France in La Reunion reduced their peak storm surge forecast for the storm to 1 - 2 meters.) Of most concern are the rains from Enawo, as it is an unusually large and wet storm. The amount of water vapor detected by satellite is near the very high end of what is observed in tropical cyclones—precipitable water values up to 3.0 inches. Recent runs of the HWRF model (Figure 2) predict extreme rainfall amounts falling on heavily populated regions of Madagascar, and Enawo has the potential to be a top-three most damaging storm in the island’s history. Enawo will decay rapidly as it takes a track directly down the length of Madagascar, exposing the entire island to flooding rains. However, the disaster could have been worse—more than half of the rivers in Madagascar have dried up or are flowing at less than 5 percent of their average streamflow, thanks to a two-year El Niño-linked drought. Enawo’s rains will help break the drought, which has caused large-scale crop failures and put over half a million people into acute food insecurity, according to the Famine Early Warning Systems Network.


Figure 1. Visible MODIS image of Enawo taken at 10:24 UTC (5:24 am EST) Tuesday March 7, 2017. At the time, Enawo had just made landfall over northeast Madagascar as a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Predicted storm-total rainfall amounts for Tropical Cyclone Enawo from the 06 UTC Tuesday (1 am EST) March 7, 2017 run of the HWRF model. Rainfall amounts in excess of 16 inches (orange colors) are expected in many areas of Madagascar, with 4 - 8” expected near the capital of Antananarivo (population 1.6 million).


Figure 3. Streamflow as a percent of average in Madagascar on March 4, 2017. Most rivers on the island were flowing at less than 5 percent of average due to a two-year El Niño-linked drought. Image credit: Princeton African Flood and Drought Monitor.

Enawo is the strongest tropical cyclone in the Southern Hemisphere so far in the 2016 - 2017 season, and the first one to exceed Category 1 strength. It has been an unusually quiet tropical cyclone season in the Southern Hemisphere this year, as we discussed in detail in a February 28 post.

Madagascar’s cyclone history
According to NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website, Madagascar has been struck by twelve major (Category 3 or stronger) tropical cyclones since 1983. The deadliest of these was Tropical Cyclone Gafilo, which hit the island on March 7, 2004, as a Category 4 storm with 150 mph winds. Gafilo killed 363 people; damage was estimated at $250 million, the fifth costliest natural disaster on record in Madagascar. The island’s costliest storm was Tropical Storm Emilie, which caused devastating flooding on February 1, 1977 of $1.4 billion (2017 dollars.) The strongest cyclone to hit Madagascar was Cyclone Hary, which brushed the northeastern coast of the island on March 10. 2002, as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Hary was a small storm, and caused four deaths and relatively little damage in Madagascar.


Figure 4. Tracks of all major (Category 3 and stronger) tropical cyclones to make landfall in Madagascar, 1983 - 2016. Image credit: NOAA’s Historical Hurricane Tracks website.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

You know they say any publicity is good publicity... After the past week of Madagascar being tossed around, I researched and planned a trip there for this summer. I have worn out the Caribbean islands. So hope everyone there is safe, and the silver lining being drought relief.
I forgot there was a cyclone in the Indian Ocean, didn't make any headlines and I haven't been lurking much on the blog with my computer dying. Finally got one now.

Saw there's a chance of winter weather for the southeast/midatlantic this weekend, mostly north of the I-85 corridor.
Would have thought we'd never see anymore snow this winter with how unseasonably (or maybe the new 'seasonable' rather) it's been.

Also a neat little tidbit, the language spoken in Madagascar is more closely related to Hawaiian than any language spoken on the African continent.
1400 UTC

1415 UTC

The track is a really worst case one as the CDO envelope will travel down the spine of the Island as forecasted.

It is a extremely wet system and the flooding will be a huge concern.

Our thoughts go to those in Harms way.

Nothing worse than a landfalling Large, powerful Hurricane at night.





Latest HWRF has this scenario of 97S hitting Mauritius with central pressure of 932 mbar. But other models do not show such intensification, and they show a track more to the south.



Next name on the list is Fernando.
Thank You Dr. Masters for the update; hoping that there is no loss of life from Enawo on the Island.  Big irony in the fact that the North Pacific Pineapple Express provided drought relief to California in the course of two months and that this current storm is going to provide some short-term drought relief for Madagascar even though too much rain at one time. 
Tropical storms are often welcome drought busters but we still have to see what the rain pattern for Madagascar settles back into over the next year or two in terms of their longer term water needs.  It seems like a pretty wet pattern has set up this year across the Indian Ocean ITCZ late into their storm season as you noted last week; with 97S behind Enawo, this qualifies as an Indian Ocean storm cluster.



 
Most likely the last VIZ frame from the impacting cyclone.

Noting those Hot towers along the Southern and Eastern periphery of the Eyewall. This is a very deadly cyclone making landfall.


Here is the JTWC shot of Enawo about to cross the coast earlier this morning and 97S behind it:



Subsidences upnorth with record heat between Mayotte (warmest nights) and Tanzania (record hottest days including in Dar es Salaam).
In terms of Conus today, here is the current outlook and one wind report in Western TN so far and the reports from yesterday: the tornado numbers for the US are way up this year through yesterday as compared to past years.



today Reports Graphic


yesterday Reports Graphic
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Thank you Dr. Masters! There is currently very little wind here in Antananarivo but that will certainly change tomorrow when the center moves near or over the city. I experienced some extremely heavy rain on my trip from Toamasina to Antananarivo today so flooding seems to be a big concern. I fear there have been life-threatening impacts from wind and storm surge in the towns of Sambava and Antalaha which are home to at least 80.000 people.

Will post some footage tomorrow if things are getting nasty here in Antananarivo ;)
IR/WV/Microwave RGB (IR [R], WV [G], MI89 [B])
The Hot towers noted still illuminated in the last,last, Viz frame.


Enawo just before landfall
Summer heat broke 205 records and more extreme weather is to come, Climate Council of Australia reports

"If you look at the east of Australia, particularly New South Wales and Queensland, the records that have really been tumbling there are high temperatures, heatwave type records," Professor Steffen said.

"Over in the west in Perth and up in the Kimberley in the north-west, they've been setting extreme rainfall records, so we've seen extremes of all types across the continent in the past three months.


Key findings:

More than 205 temperature records were broken around Australia in 90 days
The extreme heat in NSW was at least 50 times more likely to occur due to climate change
Australia's ageing energy system is inefficient and incapable of handling rising temperatures
Conditions to go down hill rather quickly in SE TX. We shall see

2500-3000 J/kg of Cape now over Houston area



We've been off to a really fast start in terms of server weather this year so far because of the mild winter.I think the gulf is having a huge effect as well with it being so warm.Quite a contrast from last year's quiet streak and its only March.
Quoting 20. washingtonian115:

We've been off to a really fast start in terms of server weather this year so far because of the mild winter.I think the gulf is having a huge effect as well with it being so warm.Quite a contrast from last year's quiet streak and its only March.


I agree. The server seems to be under a constant onslaught and suffering from no end of problems. But I'm not sure how a warm Gulf is influencing the servers. ;)
Stephen Hawking: Technological advances 'may destroy us all'

Physicist Stephen Hawking is again raising the alarm that humankind needs to shape up if it hopes to survive.

In an interview with The Times, Hawking reiterated that humankind faces a slew of threats ranging from climate change to mass species extinction. He noted that technological advances have helped humans achieve seemingly insurmountable feats, but may also lead to our demise.

“Since civilization began, aggression has been useful inasmuch as it has definite survival advantages,” he told The Times. “It is hard-wired into our genes by Darwinian evolution. Now, however, technology has advanced at such a pace that this aggression may destroy us all by nuclear or biological war. We need to control this inherited instinct by our logic and reason.”


Link

Quoting 22. Xyrus2000:



I agree. The server seems to be under a constant onslaught and suffering from no end of problems. But I'm not sure how a warm Gulf is influencing the servers. ;)


If there is significant "weather" in the server room, you need to check your chillers.

Quoting 21. Gearsts:



Interesting that the latest members are trending more towards neutral...
Quoting 24. georgevandenberghe:



If there is significant "weather" in the server room, you need to check your chillers.




The server room wu HQ December 15th, 2016 12:43pm PDT.

The Mind meld t'was tough,but the server won,..easily.

I saw things, wu ting's, weather ting's.

I had to adjust my Chakra's a few hours later with Uncle Jack.

It was a wunderful week.

CFS backing off with its strong El Niño
Now

Last week

Had just about given up on line causing problem last night when my phone went off - tornado warning. TV met had just given up on N side of line & was focusing S of StL, so thought error, then all of a sudden he shifts back to us, radar indicated S & W of us. Never had much wind as passed, was worse earlier ahead of front, and quickly went back to just severe tstorm warning as headed to next counties E. Woke wife and got her downstairs jic, so both little slow and groggy this a.m. Have seen nothing in news for our area so far. Forgot to check gauge before heading to work, but from puddles at least a 1/2". Edit: just noticed 12) has red dot in area, will have to see what gets reported.

Near the StL NWS office, & hometown of the man in my avatar, they had some damage that was originally attributed to straight lines, but are now saying very small tornado. No report of any damage at Chuck's compound though:) Couple of mobile homes and some sheds damaged in Wentzville, then some other reports as crossed river, but nothing major. NW MO not so lucky though.

Currently 50 in S C IL, pressure back over 30" & W to NW winds around 10. Still showing a 49 SSW gust, prob from last night. Interesting week so far, may have snow on Sat now too.

Thanks for the Updates. Just chilling here waiting for the mailman.
James Balog on climate change: ‘It’s a tragedy that it’s been politicized’

"How do I keep from being depressed and upset?" Balog said. "That hits me often at 3 in the morning. But I believe that the only thing that does good is optimism."

Balog spoke to a full audience at the Van Wezel Performing Arts Hall as part of the Ringling College Library Association's Town Hall Lecture Series. Much of his presentation focused on his work depicting the changes in glaciers over time. Starting in spring 2007, Balog set up stationary time-lapse cameras at 36 sites across the globe, including Alaska, Iceland and Antarctica. The result was 1.4 million pictures showing the deterioration of glaciers in an attempt to illuminate climate change in real time. The project also resulted in a documentary on Balog's efforts, entitled "Chasing Ice."


Link
Hello, I search information on this Hurricane (photos, datas...), if somebody has something I'm taker. Thanks
These cities are jinxed next year.....


Four NWS Southern Region Weather Forecast Offices (WFOs) will stop issuing tropical cyclone forecast products effective on or about June 1, 2017

Excerpt:

Effective on or about June 1, 2017, four WFOs will no longer
issue local tropical cyclone products:

WFO Albuquerque (ABQ)
WFO Amarillo (AMA)
WFO El Paso (EPZ)
WFO Lubbock (LUB)

Based on tropical cyclone climatological return periods and
feedback from local emergency management, the WFOs listed above
will no longer issue the WFO Hurricane Local Watch/Warning
Product (WFO TCV) and Hurricane Local Statement (HLS).
Storm Report SA: @StormReportSA1
for more info, pics & videos (en).
Greetings from St. Thomas!

It's been a very wild day and a half. Last night winds were gusting to 57 mph atop Crown Mountain. Currently, rain is falling sideways and a very. Boaters have been warned to triple tie their boats down. I believe this is the coolest I've ever been on this side of the island in the 15 years I've been here. Following is the weather report. Check out the wave heights!


"Special Hazardous Weather Update for USVI, PR, Vieques, Culebra & BVI, 03.07.2017; 12:31 pm (AST):

Doppler Radar has detected strong winds & heavy rain showers and torrential downpours, across the Islands of USVI, PR and BVI. This Frontal Boundary, we mentioned in our Update last night, will continue
to produce these conditions through this evening.

Winds: Strong winds between 26 to 34 mph with frequent higher gusts will continue and, falling branches, even trees are possible with the strongest winds.

Flooding: With the Torrential rainfall, expect localized flooding! Please do not drive through areas that are flooded, especially, areas you are not familiar with. And, don't forget our never ending potholes! The flooding can cause new ones and hide the ones already there. The last thing any of you want is to drive through flooded road, and hit hidden pothole, shred your tire and have to change it in these weather conditions.

Mudslides/Rockslides: Last night when this Forecaster went out to investigate, I did not notice evidence of mudslides, which is most likely due to my being from Christiansted to just East of Point Udall. (Eastend of STX). I did find mud & big rocks, in the roads, from run off. Those in higher terrains, please update us.

Marine Advisories: Small Craft Advisory issued. RIP Current Warning issued.
Hazardous boating conditions will also continue through tonight. Mariners can expect Seas between 11 & 14 ft, with occasional Seas up to 21 ft. Winds between 21 & 32 mph with gusts between 30 & 40 kts.

Aviation: See attached graph for STX Airport. Will try to find STT, BVI & PR for you.

As always, we will monitor this Tropical System for you. As you have noticed since yesterday, there are times when our weather appears to be clearing up. But, be cautious of this because this System has not left our LFA. We should see our conditions begin to improve as the evening progresses.

Be safe please. That is our main concern. And, keep us posted to how you are doing.

$$ Forecaster Jones"

Hoping all is good with everybody!

Lindy
Quoting 21. Gearsts:


Quoting 25. HurricaneFan:


Interesting that the latest members are trending more towards neutral...
Quoting 27. HurricaneFan:

CFS backing off with its strong El Niño
Now

Last week




yes I know its doing exactly what I had expected it to do

I'm saying it again I do think its gonna be a similar situation to what we had back in 2011 La Nina ends first part of year stays neutral for a short period then back to La Nina later during the year

the models are overhyping the intensity due to Spring Predictability Barrier (SPB)
as time goes on I expect the models to shift cooler and cooler with an even bigger shift in May/Jun as we start getting out of the SPB

I said this from late last year and early this year
ok I'll say this for this year its will either be La Nina or Neutral and hearing from other people they do think if we even do get into an El Nino it would likely be a weak Modoki El Nino

anyway we will see
- Meteorological winter (Dec-Jan-Feb) 2016-2017 in France ranked among the 5 driest in the period 1959-2017 (!), with an average precipitation deficit estimated at 40%.
Temperature anomaly was 0.2 C above average.

- Storm "Zeus" (yeah, I know, wrong name ;-) has been the tenth most severe winter storm since 1980 (9 storms since 1980 were more severe than Zeus). During the storm, 32% of the French territory experienced winds in excess of 100kph/62mph.

Source: Meteo-France (1) (2)
Quoting 31. RobertWC:

James Balog on climate change: ‘It’s a tragedy that it’s been politicized’

"How do I keep from being depressed and upset?" Balog said. "That hits me often at 3 in the morning. But I believe that the only thing that does good is optimism."

Balog spoke to a full audience at the Van Wezel Performing Arts Hall as part of the Ringling College Library Association's Town Hall Lecture Series. Much of his presentation focused on his work depicting the changes in glaciers over time. Starting in spring 2007, Balog set up stationary time-lapse cameras at 36 sites across the globe, including Alaska, Iceland and Antarctica. The result was 1.4 million pictures showing the deterioration of glaciers in an attempt to illuminate climate change in real time. The project also resulted in a documentary on Balog's efforts, entitled "Chasing Ice."


Link
"Politicized" is a weasel word, it has been Republicanized in mostly the US. Most of the rest of world considers it no debate at all.
An impressive squall line has set up this pm across Conus from Texas/Gulf all the way up to West Virginia with more rain further to the North all the way to Canada and the NE.............Impressive so far but no tornado reports over the past three hours which is a good thing:


Last Three Hours:
last3hours Reports Graphic

SW Indian Ocean - Enawo making landfall, 97S developing. From 0530 UTC to 1400 UTC, March 7:

IR satellite imagery from CIMSS (the .gif animation above in this comment is not current).
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 135 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 133 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 133 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING BIRMINGHAM AL - KBMX 118 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 110 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING SHREVEPORT LA - KSHV 1256 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1255 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 1232 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017


Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

TORNADO WARNING     WICHITA KS - KICT 1007 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     QUAD CITIES IA/IL - KDVN 1001 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     HASTINGS NE - KGID 1001 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 1001 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     WICHITA KS - KICT 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     GOODLAND KS - KGLD 900 AM MST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     TOPEKA KS - KTOP 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     LINCOLN IL - KILX 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     PADUCAH KY - KPAH 959 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 958 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
Enawo

Not nearly as large a story as Enawo or the severe weather, but the fire southeast of Naples is blazing merrily along this afternoon, and winds have shifted to the northwest, so it's ugly in these parts:

Click for larger image:

Quoting 49. Neapolitan:

Not nearly as large a story as Enawo or the severe weather, but the fire southeast of Naples is blazing merrily along this afternoon, and winds have shifted to the northwest, so it's ugly in these parts:

Click for larger image:




Can spot it on radar and the smoke plume blowing it out to sea
Quoting 145. weathermanwannabe:

Almost a perfect storm (Cat 4?) on final approach this morning at 2:00 am; and kudos to the model showing this possibility out about 8 days ago that some folks were posting............A remarkable forecast that actually verified for that particular model (I think it was the Euro).

The Euro was indeed spot-on from the first time I posted it, 12:36 AM SAST on February 27 (although it wobbled around quite a bit afterwards). Even more interesting is the fact that the GEM showed a twin system back then already (unfortunately I didn't save the pic), that now comes to fruition with the current invest hot on the heels of Enawo.
439. EmsiNasklug:

The Euro has something in store for Madagascar.
GFS doesn't show anything, while GEM has a couple doing the Rock'n Roll:

Quoting 50. RitaEvac:



Can spot it on radar and the smoke plume blowing it out to sea


Indeed, but that is a satellite loop,not a radar.
Quoting 52. Patrap:



Indeed, but that is a satellite loop,not a radar.


Radar...and satellite loop Pat, look harder
It is a Sat, "GOES" Visible Loop, with regional radar inlays.

Visible Satellite for Southern Florida

Yup.

: P
Thank you for posting Tornado Warning Tests.

Severe Warnings Issued More Than Three Hours Ago

TORNADO WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 1007 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING QUAD CITIES IA/IL - KDVN 1001 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING HASTINGS NE - KGID 1001 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL - KLOT 1001 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING WICHITA KS - KICT 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING MEMPHIS TN - KMEG 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING GOODLAND KS - KGLD 900 AM MST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING DODGE CITY KS - KDDC 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING TOPEKA KS - KTOP 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING SPRINGFIELD MO - KSGF 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING LINCOLN IL - KILX 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING ST LOUIS MO - KLSX 1000 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING PADUCAH KY - KPAH 959 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO - KEAX 958 AM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
hi everyone.. does anyone think we'll have a full blown el -nino this year? and what number of storms do u predict.... im goin with 12-6-2
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED  
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING  
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL  
220 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017  
 
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN BIRMINGHAM HAS ISSUED A  
 
* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...  
NORTHWESTERN SUMTER COUNTY IN WEST CENTRAL ALABAMA...  
 
* UNTIL 245 PM CST  
 
* AT 219 PM CST, SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WERE LOCATED ALONG A LINE  
EXTENDING FROM NEAR COOKSVILLE TO NEAR PANOLA TO NEAR ELECTRIC  
MILLS, MOVING EAST AT 45 MPH.  
 
HAZARD...60 MPH WIND GUSTS.  
 
SOURCE...RADAR INDICATED.  
 
IMPACT...EXPECT DAMAGE TO ROOFS, SIDING, AND TREES.  
 
* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...  
GAINESVILLE, PANOLA, GEIGER AND WARSAW.  
 
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...  
 
FOR YOUR PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF A  
BUILDING.  
 
 
 
LAT...LON 3299 8834 3300 8817 3296 8816 3296 8819  
3294 8817 3292 8821 3291 8819 3288 8818  
3286 8816 3284 8817 3284 8818 3282 8816  
3283 8814 3280 8810 3281 8807 3278 8807  
3277 8808 3278 8810 3276 8811 3276 8837  
TIME...MOT...LOC 2019Z 270DEG 39KT 3305 8836 3291 8831 3279 8843  
 
HAIL...<.75IN  
WIND...60MPH  
 
 
 
87/GRANTHAM  
 
CLICK HERE TO GO TO PREVIOUS BULLETINS.


The Nexlab AL Page

Main Text Page

The cells producing some hail in two places in Alabama at the moment are starting to fire up; be careful if you start to see a "green" hue in the sky...........Might see a tornado spin up now that we have max daytime heating across parts of the SE in AL and GA along that bottom edge of the jet that might add some rotation to the stronger cells:



Quoting 56. stormhank:

hi everyone.. does anyone think we'll have a full blown el -nino this year? and what number of storms do u predict.... im goin with 12-6-2


..goin with 36-16-12 based on "more steam in the air this year" guessing.
Update on Wentzville, low end (88mph) EF-1. Haven't seen anything new on why red dot in S C IL, closest guess is StL paper mentioned Carrollton, but did not say tornado damage? Over 500 homes damaged in NW MO, mainly in Oak Grove. A couples first home purchased there in Nov was only a slab of concrete. Fortunately, they had been eating out and were not home at the time, felt they'd have died. Bet next one they buy has a basement, or at least a shelter.

Skies cleared, nary a cloud (26 d.p.), up to 55, says 65 possible high. Hard to believe we can get there, maybe 60, although now slight S component to W winds could help. Over guessed precip earlier, only .3" in gauge at home, although have heard .5 elsewhere. Edit: duh, 65 was high after midnight before front, 55 appears to be it for this p.m.

Will be interesting how models evolve on Sat. snow, GFS had a lot, Euro not so much. Buddy is refereeing his 1st State finals in Peoria this weekend and wanted us to come watch, so watching intently for travel plans.
Massive blaze at Picayune Strand grows to 6,000 acres
Link
COLLIER COUNTY -
The massive blaze at Picayune Stand State Forest has grown to 6,000 acres and is back to 30 percent contained, according to the Caloosahatchee Forestry Center.

It's happening near Williams Road in the Picayune Strand.

Authorities have reopened Collier Boulevard, which was shut down at 4 p.m. Monday from Davis Boulevard to Rattlesnake Hammock. Drivers are being urged to drive carefully through the area. The county said there could be intermittent closures later in the day due to heavy smoke.
wunderground

Carbon Dioxide Could Reach Unseen Heights – 410 PPM – This Month
Brian Kahn, Climate Central
Published: March 7, 2017


Brian Kahn, Climate Central
Published: March 7, 2017

A never-ending stream of carbon pollution ensures that each year the world continues to break records for carbon dioxide in the atmosphere. This year will be no different.

Like a rite of spring, carbon dioxide is poised to cruise past the previous mark set last year and reach heights unseen in human history. In the coming weeks, carbon dioxide will start to breach the 410 parts per million threshold on a daily basis at the Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii. The monthly average for May could come close to topping 410 ppm, too, according to the U.K. Met Office’s inaugural carbon dioxide forecast, released last week.

Weekly carbon dioxide levels at Mauna Loa Observatory are already nearing last year's peak.
(Greenhouse Gas Reference Network)
Richard Betts, a climate scientist who helped create the forecast, said we should pass last year’s record-setting monthly peak by April or even as soon as this month. It’s not a question of if but rather when depending on wind patterns and other factors that influence daily measurements.

This year’s new high-water mark comes a year after the planet passed the 400 ppm threshold permanently on the back of the greatest yearly rise in carbon dioxide on record. That dramatic rise was driven in part by last year’s super El Niño, but the underlying cause of the steady uptick is human activities that emit carbon pollution.

The string of carbon dioxide records is a running reminder that those activities are altering the basic chemistry of our atmosphere and destabilizing the climate that’s allowed civilization to flourish.

While 2017 is unlikely to see a rise as dramatic as 2016’s El Niño-fueled peak, the Met Office forecast said this year is still expected to see an above-average increase. Carbon dioxide is forecast to rise another 2.5 ppm this year.

The forecast is based on research done by Met Office scientists last year that uses equatorial Pacific Ocean temperatures in the El Niño region coupled with carbon pollution data.

“Verifying the forecast against measurements gives us an extra reason to understand the processes behind the year-to-year variability in the rate of carbon dioxide rise — and that could be helpful in understanding the global carbon cycle and how it is affected by climate variability and change,” Betts said.


An animation showing how carbon dioxide moves around the planet. (NASA)
For decades, scientists have been monitoring the annual ebb and flow of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere at Mauna Loa. The ebb happens as plants inhale carbon dioxide out of the atmosphere in northern hemisphere summer. Their death and decomposition then sparks the flow of carbon dioxide.

Since the Industrial Revolution, human activities have added more carbon dioxide than plants can take up, altering the equation so that more and more carbon dioxide ends up in the atmosphere. As a result, temperatures have risen by roughly 1°C, sea levels have increased and a host of other impacts have been seen from more large wildfires, heat waves and extreme rainfall events.

If carbon pollution continues on its current trend, it’s likely to pass 450 ppm in the next two decades. That will send temperatures spiraling ever higher and further destabilize the climate.

Scientists and policymakers have agreed that to have the best chance to avoid catastrophic impacts, the global average temperature should rise no more than 2°C (3.6°F). The Paris Agreement signed in 2015 is an important step toward stemming the flow of carbon dioxide into the atmosphere, though more will have to be done to ensure the world kicks its carbon habit. Until then, the ritual of setting carbon dioxide records each year will continue.

MORE FROM CLIMATE CENTRAL:

I-75 closed in Naples due to brush fire
Link

COLLIER COUNTY, Fla. -- A portion of Interstate 75 and Alligator Alley is now closed near Naples due to smoke from a nearby brush fire.

According to Florida Highway Patrol, both directions are closed between Golden Gate Parkway (Exit #105) and State Road 29 (Exit #80).

FHP will continue to monitor the situation and reopen the roadway when conditions permit.

Motorists are asked to drive with caution and to leave early for their destination, allowing ample time to safely travel through the prescribed detour routes mentioned below.

The Florida Highway Patrol would like to remind everyone that *FHP (*347) dialed from any cell phone should you need any roadside assistance.

You can monitor live traffic conditions on the Fox 4 Traffic Page.

DETOUR ROUTES:
*Eastbound I75 Traffic: Take Exit 105 (Golden Gate Parkway) to US 41(Tamiami Trail). Turn left onto eastbound US41. Take eastbound US 41 to SR 29. Turn left onto northbound SR 29. Take northbound SR 29 to I75. Turn right onto the eastbound I75 entrance ramp.

*Westbound I75 Traffic: Take Exit 80 (State Road 29) north for a northern travel destination. For a southern travel destination (Naples). Take SR 29 to US 41 (Tamiami Trail). Turn right onto US 41.

MORE: Fires and heavy smoke spread near Naples

PHOTOS: Tuesday's fire at Picayune Strand near Naples
Inside the Anti-Science Forces of the Internet

Welcome to the corner of the internet that’s hell-bent on convincing you that GMOs are poisonous, vaccines cause autism, and climate change is a government-sponsored hoax. The message is traveling far and wide.

Quoting 66. no1der:

Inside the Anti-Science Forces of the Internet

Welcome to the corner of the internet that%u2019s hell-bent on convincing you that GMOs are poisonous, vaccines cause autism, and climate change is a government-sponsored hoax. The message is traveling far and wide.


I don't think GMOs are poison, but they do have some serious problems by causing potential harm to the Earth's ecology and allowing Monsanto to sell massive amounts of pesticides and they have their own faux science campaign going as well. GMOs haven't increased yields of anything and pesticide weed resistance has skyrocketed. It's kind of like nuclear power, it never delivered. At one time they said that nuclear power would be so cheap that it wouldn't be worth it to meter it. As it turns out, it's the most expensive way to generate electricity.
On the other points I do agree however.
That's a "Whole Lotta Low" up in Canada driving the front all the way down to the Gulf Coast as noted in the post below:




Quoting 69. weathermanwannabe:

That's a "Whole Lotta Low" up in Canada driving the front all the way down to the Gulf Coast as noted in the post below:







It looks like that every time that KOG turns on those roof fans. ;)
Quoting 70. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



It looks like that every time that KOG turns on those roof fans. ;)
Yeah, it's not very cold though. Down here in north Texas it blew through early this morning, the winds have already died and I have a reading of 72F at my location.
SPC does not have any tornado watches up for the evening so far which is a good thing; looks like they were confident with their updated Convective Outlook in the slight category. Not much of a rain shield ahead of the front across Southern Al/GA/and Florida Panhandle this afternoon, with the Sun shining brightly, but temps are already cooling down a little bit in the Big Bend at the moment (already down to 74 from a high of 77) so the instability factor is dropping as the sun starts to set.  It will hopefully stay that way for the duration of the evening and remain as a short duration frontal line passage with little severe weather. As noted a few weeks ago with the last one, this is not much of cold front at all for the South with temps back up to the high 70's starting tomorrow for the rest of the week.


Valid WW Image
Quoting 71. bwtranch:

Yeah, it's not very cold though. Down here in north Texas it blew through early this morning, the winds have already died and I have a reading of 72F at my location.


I got about the same here. We did have a short lived thunderstorm go through earlier. It is complete overcast but fairly quiet now. I am currently near Hobby Airport, SSE of downtown Houston.
And noting the latest picks of Enawo before I sign off for the day. Hoping as always that there will be no or minimal loss of life in Madagascar from this storm but we should have a better picture by tomorrow.  The core of the storm is relatively dry at the moment but those heavy rain bands are going to continue to cycle across the Island over the next few days.
Everyone have a safe weather evening in the US and prayers for the folks in Madagascar.






Tornado outbreak article up. Rapidly changing as surveying continues.

Link
Quoting 75. Patrap:




Is the tornado threat just south and east of the main line of storms? Sure looks like it if there is a threat.
Your estimated wait time for the next available snowstorm...is...ten...months.
Your snowstorm is very important to us. Please remain on the blog for the next available model.
Quoting 79. BaltimoreBrian:

Your estimated wait time for the next available snowstorm...is...ten...months.


That's what it's felt like, yea
Quoting 77. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Tornado outbreak article up. Rapidly changing as surveying continues.

Link
Did you write it Cody?
Leading climatologist urges mass protest against Trump administration amid global warming denial

A leading climatologist has warned US democracy is under attack from the “uninhibited use of lies, false statements and bad science”, as he urged people to take part in public demonstrations in support of science.

In an article for the website Wired, Dr Peter Gleick, co-founder of the Pacific Institute in California, said leading members of Trump administration rejected the “undeniable reality of climate change”, evolution, the science about vaccines, and the need to study gun violence.

And he said he had taken to carrying a copy of the US Constitution in his briefcase to help remind himself that it guarantees the right to peacefully protest.


Link
Link

Just terrible.
Link

Here is updated info.
In fact, the ensembles I've seen have varied wildly from nearly a foot to null. Get a little closer in time and see what the nam is thinking.
I think the storm will be too far south for accumulating snow in Baltimore.
Quoting 83. RobertWC:

Leading climatologist urges mass protest against Trump administration amid global warming denial

A leading climatologist has warned US democracy is under attack from the “uninhibited use of lies, false statements and bad science”, as he urged people to take part in public demonstrations in support of science.

In an article for the website Wired, Dr Peter Gleick, co-founder of the Pacific Institute in California, said leading members of Trump administration rejected the “undeniable reality of climate change”, evolution, the science about vaccines, and the need to study gun violence.

And he said he had taken to carrying a copy of the US Constitution in his briefcase to help remind himself that it guarantees the right to peacefully protest.


Link


Sad that somebody would urge for mass unrest to push their agenda.
Thanks hotroddan for the Texas wildfire link.
91. Ed22
Quoting 39. wunderkidcayman:



yes I know its doing exactly what I had expected it to do

I'm saying it again I do think its gonna be a similar situation to what we had back in 2011 La Nina ends first part of year stays neutral for a short period then back to La Nina later during the year

the models are overhyping the intensity due to Spring Predictability Barrier (SPB)
as time goes on I expect the models to shift cooler and cooler with an even bigger shift in May/Jun as we start getting out of the SPB

I said this from late last year and early this year
You're right, I'm sticking with Neutral to moderately strong La Nina 2017-18; no El Nino for me.
Peaceful protest is not 'mass unrest'.
Quoting 82. BaltimoreBrian:

Did you write it Cody?

Outside a few of the tornado damage descriptors, yep.
94. Ed22
Quoting 56. stormhank:

hi everyone.. does anyone think we'll have a full blown el -nino this year? and what number of storms do u predict.... im goin with 12-6-2
I'm going with 16-8-4.
Quoting 93. TropicalAnalystwx13:

Outside a few of the tornado damage descriptors, yep.
Very cool Cody. Good work.
My hurricane season forecast is 16-9-4.
Quoting 73. Some1Has2BtheRookie:



I got about the same here. We did have a short lived thunderstorm go through earlier. It is complete overcast but fairly quiet now. I am currently near Hobby Airport, SSE of downtown Houston.
Very good, I have been there, always enjoyed my times in Houston, great food. I'm upstream a bit here now about 5 miles SE of Graham, Texas, just barely still in the northern Hill country near Possum Kingdom lake. Just north of here starts tornado alley towards Wichita Falls and really, all of the Great Plains. I'm pretty glad to be living in the hills myself.
6 dead in Texas, Kansas wildfires

(CNN)Three ranchers trying to save their cattle died in a wildfire in Gray County, Texas, according to Sandi Martin, coordinator with Gray County Emergency Management.

The three were among five people killed by wildfires in the Texas Panhandle as fires continue to scorch swaths of the Southwest and Great Plains.


Over a million acres burned
I know somebody from Graham TX.
Quoting 92. BaltimoreBrian:

Peaceful protest is not 'mass unrest'.



unrest
noun
mass noun

1A state of dissatisfaction, disturbance, and agitation, typically involving public demonstrations or disorder.

(Taken from the online Oxford Dictionary.)
Generally people protest because they are dissatisfied, agitated or something like that.

Link
Quoting 99. BaltimoreBrian:

I know somebody from Graham TX.
It's a pretty sleepy place sometimes and pretty moderate in weather most of the time. Feb. beat the records for extremes since my 12 years here: 5F and 94F. The 5 was actually a tie for when I first moved here, but the 94 beat the prior record by 12 degrees.
College of DuPage Meteorology
Severe Weather and Flash Flood Warnings
Note: This page will reload every 2 minutes. Warnings are listed with the most recent first.
Click on the station ID to bring up list of recent severe weather statements.
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 424 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 409 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
TORNADO WARNING     JACKSON MS - KJAN 408 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING MOBILE AL - KMOB 326 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
SVR T-STORM WARNING JACKSON MS - KJAN 325 PM CST TUE MAR 7 2017
Quoting 89. hotroddan:



Sad that somebody would urge for mass unrest to push their agenda.


happy that people are willing to fight for the planet, and the environment. an 'agenda' every single human should be fighting for. bring on the unrest! (im tired of the status quo)
Drought in FL is a funny, thing the tourists and the tourism industry loves to brag how sunny it is in FL, meanwhile fires are raging and wildlife dies as their water sources dry up.

Don't get me wrong, even when we get 15 inches of rain in a month in FL, it's still relatively sunny compared to areas up north that get a lot of cloudy days and actually quite a bit less rain than FL yearly.

Also, I like sun and love the warm sunny beach days down here. But it annoys me when we are in droughts and people don't conserve water here during such periods because people are oblivious to what the FL climate is like and think FL should be sunny 24/7 down here and don't realize that as one of the wettest states drought can be very destructive here and it's not going to to be sunny forever considering FL is one of the wettest states in the country.

In fact, not to downplay the drought and how bad it was in central and southern CA, but drought is actually more dangerous in wetter climates like in FL and the severe drought that was causing raging fires in TN, GA, and NC. The reason why is wet regions adapt to getting more rain and use up more water both in terms of soil transpiration, and by plants and animals. So when it stops raining, the damage done is worse. For example, if FL or Louisiana endured a drought in the severe to extreme range as long as southern CA did, that ecological damage and number of fires would be far worse because both areas are much wetter climates and long periods with little rain are less common in such wetter states.

A great example right now is the drought in FL isn't even that bad yet and fires are already raging in large numbers throughout the state, because as I mentioned above, wetter climates are more sensitive to drought.

Here in Tallahassee we aren't even technically in drought yet but we've had significantly below average rainfall for the past month and fires have been developing already in response. It has smelled like smoke in the area the past few days.
I'm very concerned for the future of climate science and meteorology under the Trump administration given the proposed cuts to NOAA and gutting of the EPA.

I'm going to be graduating from FSU in meteorology in early May, and I based all my preparation on employment in the NWS but if current proposed cuts were to occur. Any chance at a NWS job as a new graduate is extremely unlikely.

That said, my backup plan was the airforce, and that's the direction I'm leaning in since meteorology in the airforce is similar to the NWS job in terms of function and being payed well. Plus I've always been into fitness and military related things, so the military/science lifestyle combo fits me well.

That said for all new and soon to be graduates in meteorology who don't think they could consider the military as an option the future is looking shaky.

What's worse, the NWS and NOAA was already underfunded, this could really deal a heavy blow in setting us backwards in meteorological forecasting capabilities and saving lives, especially since the biggest cuts are expected to be to satellite services, and remote sensing is critical for model data.

Given that meteorological and other science services take up such a small amount of tax dollars and were already underfunded, the only reason I can see why Trump is doing this is it is a way to appease and pander to the growing anti-science movement among conservative voters, and that it has nothing to do with smart budgeting.

It's really frustrating to be a conservative who believes in vaccines, global warming, and many other science issues that are settled sciences, and watch so many other conservatives deny all the evidence and act like their are credible alternatives.
I don't understand what happened. Conservatives once backed science funding heavily. Social movements are weird.

Despite this, I don't consider people who think this way to be enemies or mistreat them. That doesn't accomplish any good, I just try my best to show people the truth in a way that isn't condescending, because I really care.
One of the worst things, or probably THE worst thing about this format was how it was so repetitive. Take an example: say somebody posted a map about a tornado threat in SE Kansas. Now, numerous replies come in, showing the same picture every time and all they do is make a small comment at the bottom. Pretty much the page has filled up and in all this time and space: the information is outdated. Uh, that's not the way to run a weather site. Information should be timely, complete, but not overly verbose.
So that's why it was always hard to get something useful from the blog comments.
And I did use the past tense because I am considering this format history. And I fully welcome our new AI bots with open arms. ;)
The Air Force will be glad to have you Jedkins. Army and Navy are other options. It's a good career and a good life.

But don't forget, airlines, agricultural firms, and commodity traders hire meteorologists and you can make a good living with them too. Major Wall Street and Chicago trading firms keep meteorologists on staff to predict harvests and energy consumption during cold waves in the winter and heat waves in the summer.
Quoting 107. bwtranch:

One of the worst things, or probably THE worst thing about this format was how it was so repetitive. Take an example: say somebody posted a map about a tornado threat in SE Kansas. Now, numerous replies come in, showing the same picture every time and all they do is make a small comment at the bottom. Pretty much the page has filled up and in all this time and space: the information is outdated. Uh, that's not the way to run a weather site. Information should be timely, complete, but not overly verbose.
So that's why it was always hard to get something useful from the blog comments.
And I did use the past tense because I am considering this format history. And I fully welcome our new AI bots with open arms. ;)
The point about pictures being posted over and over in quotes is worth repeating. It is easy to take a picture/image out of a quote. People should do that. Once post for an image is enough.
Old English word of the day: gicel-stān - a hailstone. Pronounced "yee-chell-stahn".
Quoting 109. BaltimoreBrian:

The point about pictures being posted over and over in quotes is worth repeating. It is easy to take a picture/image out of a quote. People should do that. Once post for an image is enough.
That's exactly right, but most never did. I have had even a quandary at times on what to keep. But mostly the formula was to splay it all out there again, sometimes to the degree of ad naseum.
This format is actually very powerful still, but it assumes that people are responsible enough to know how to use it. And they never really told anybody how to use it either. They said don't cuss and respect the other person, blah, blah. Where is the tutorial? I think they never got around to writing that. They probably could have enlisted some volunteers, but I think they didn't even think about it. When it comes down to it, it's only crowd sourced, but never open source.
Degradation, of the core structure is a good trend here.






2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve,Loop




click image for loop
Quoting 110. BaltimoreBrian:

Old English word of the day: gicel-stān - a hailstone. Pronounced "yee-chell-stahn".


We had that 'c' in the middle of a lot of those "ai" words right? Nail and rain in Dutch is "nagel" and "regen," hail is "hagel"
win1gamegiantsplease is correct. For Anglo-Saxon words that were not replaced by words from other languages--Norman French or Latin, for example. I don't have personal knowledge about Dutch.
Quoting 108. BaltimoreBrian:

The Air Force will be glad to have you Jedkins. Army and Navy are other options. It's a good career and a good life.

But don't forget, airlines, agricultural firms, and commodity traders hire meteorologists and you can make a good living with them too. Major Wall Street and Chicago trading firms keep meteorologists on staff to predict harvests and energy consumption during cold waves in the winter and heat waves in the summer.


Brian's right. The job network for meteorology isn't limited to just broadcast or military or NWS jobs. There's so much out there, from aviation companies to UPS/Fedex to Wall Street Firms. For example, Mars has a division located in the Nashville metropolitan area that does forecasting for chocolate futures. :-)
They keep updating it. :) No new tornadoes, but several additional areas of severe winds/damage located around the area.

Quoting 110. BaltimoreBrian:
Old English word of the day: gicel-stan - a hailstone. Pronounced "yee-chell-stahn".

Quoting 116. win1gamegiantsplease:
We had that 'c' in the middle of a lot of those "ai" words right? Nail and rain in Dutch is "nagel" and "regen," hail is "hagel"
***
Modern English 'hail' and as you say Dutch 'hagel' are from a different root than the Anglo-Saxon 'gicel' in Brian's word of the day.
'gicel' in Old English is the root of Modern English 'ice'. gicel-stan = ice-stone. In Old English, 'gicel' means ice, or specifically it can mean icicle. Hence the Kenning 'hilde-gicel',  for sword (= battle-icicle).
/pedantic :-)
This will be a very active hurricane season. Very, very active. All other seasons were disasters. Believe me There will be blobs all over the place. These blobs will be so great. There will be sacculiformic blobs, nefastous blobs, basculous blob, canaliculated blobs. With near neutral ENSO conditions expected to near mid-summer, it is not out of the question. Although conditions might be trending towards el nino at the end of the season. Either way, I believe we will have another above-average season.

16-8-4.
Hey, been gone for a few days - looks like they moved the whole blogs changing thing back? Coolio.
Quoting 122. Grothar:

This will be a very active hurricane season. Very, very active. All other seasons were disasters. Believe me There will be blobs all over the place. These blobs will be so great. There will be sacculiformic blobs, nefastous blobs, basculous blob, canaliculated blobs. With near neutral ENSO conditions expected to near mid-summer, it is not out of the question. Although conditions might be trending towards el nino at the end of the season. Either way, I believe we will have another above-average season.

16-8-4.


Could you say it'll be tremendous? Big league?
Quoting 122. Grothar:

This will be a very active hurricane season. Very, very active. All other seasons were disasters. Believe me There will be blobs all over the place. These blobs will be so great. There will be sacculiformic blobs, nefastous blobs, basculous blob, canaliculated blobs. With near neutral ENSO conditions expected to near mid-summer, it is not out of the question. Although conditions might be trending towards el nino at the end of the season. Either way, I believe we will have another above-average season.

16-8-4.


CPC ENSO discussion happening manana.
Quoting 123. wilsonbiggs:

Hey, been gone for a few days - looks like they moved the whole blogs changing thing back? Coolio.
So now we know it wasn't one of Dr. Master's April Fools jokes.
127. elioe
Quoting 51. EmsiNasklug:


The Euro was indeed spot-on from the first time I posted it, 12:36 AM SAST on February 27 (although it wobbled around quite a bit afterwards). Even more interesting is the fact that the GEM showed a twin system back then already (unfortunately I didn't save the pic), that now comes to fruition with the current invest hot on the heels of Enawo.




First time I commented with a saved pic about the Euro was on Feb 27, 21:03 EET, and it looked like this:

Quoting 27. elioe:

Latest Euro shows a Cat 4/5 making landfall in Madagascar somewhere near Fenoarivo in nine days.




But I didn't save the CMC either... typically there's nothing in CMC to save, lol. However, on Feb 25, 17:14 EET I posted this comment. There was not only CMC showing the more eastern area of cyclogenesis, there were other kinds of model support, though I don't remember which kinds.

Quoting 239. elioe:

New day, new model runs, and time to do a new image about where we might see (sub)tropical cyclogenesis during next 16 days. Click to expand.


Quoting 117. BaltimoreBrian:

*** Light rain can spread soil bacteria far and wide, study finds



Some species appear to evolve quickly enough to endure rising city temperatures

*** Vision, not limbs, led fish onto land 385 million years ago



Study finds knowledge gaps on protecting cultural sites from climate change



!!! Synchrotron sheds (X-ray) light on carbon chemistry at ocean surfaces: Breakthrough discoveries on the Earth's carbonate system with far ranging applications, including carbon sequestration and biology

US grasslands affected more by atmospheric dryness than precipitation Relevant with today's news.

*** Future climate change will affect plants and soil differently: A new study has found that soil carbon loss is more sensitive to climate change compared to carbon taken up by plants.

Climate study: More intense and frequent severe rainstorms likely I thought we already knew this.

Vertical wind turbines could produce 10x the power per acre as their horizontal counterparts



By 2030, half the world’s oceans could be reeling from climate change, scientists say

Compare and contrast the pair of articles below:

*** What the US stands to gain with latest European satellite launch

*** Budget cuts at NOAA threaten climate-monitoring satellite program
That was a really awesome post and I don't really have much to add to it. Except to say that we need to always support pure research. Pure research is what keeps us going and you never know what is going to come out of it.
Please keep the funding for pure research and the graduate students who need high quality tacos. Believe me, high quality tacos are important when you are in that realm.
Quoting 89. hotroddan:



Sad that somebody would urge for mass unrest to push their agenda.


Not really. It's sad that it now takes constant protests and vigilance to protect our future from dishonest and untruthful morons and idiots that should have never been let near anything like critical decision making bodies or power in the first place.

I'm just waiting to see what calamity will occur that will plant a firm boot of reality in the fork of these post-fact dunces.
Quoting 129. Xyrus2000:



Not really. It's sad that it now takes constant protests and vigilance to protect our future from dishonest and untruthful morons and idiots that should have never been let near anything like critical decision making bodies or power in the first place.

I'm just waiting to see what calamity will occur that will plant a firm boot of reality in the fork of these post-fact dunces.


That is perhaps one of the most unsettling aspects about all of this. The earth is bound by the laws of nature and does not care for alternative facts. It is clear the findings of the scientific community have not resonated with the general American public, and the only way to shift public opinion at this point is to wait for the inevitable disasters of the future to begin racking up a massive toll. We are staring down the barrel of a very dangerous gun.
Good morning! Concerning Enawo, this is the latest I could catch from Twitter et al: death toll remains at 3 so far (among them a child and an adolescent; edit: may have raised to five now). Cyclone was slowly moving since landfall. Antalaha, the town closest to the place of landfall, is still cut off from communication. At Maroantsetra, the town in the vulnerable bay south of landfall area, flooding is going on, including the airport. Capital and province of Antananarivo is now on red alert. Everybody should stay inside.
General Twitter feed on Enawo.
Official Twitter feed from Maroantsetra.



Climate change impacts are already hitting us, say Europeans
New polling study also shows support for financial penalties for nations that refuse to be part of Paris climate deal, as Donald Trump has threatened
The Guardian, Wednesday 8 March 2017 07.20 GMT
The citizens of four major European countries think the impacts of climate change such as severe floods and storms are already affecting them, according to a major new polling study.
The research dispels the idea that global warming is widely seen as a future problem, and also shows strong support for action to tackle global warming, including subsidies for clean energy and big financial penalties for nations that refuse to be part of the international climate deal signed in Paris in 2015 - as US president Donald Trump has threatened. There was also strong support for giving financial aid to developing nations to cope with the impacts of climate change.
Renewable energy was viewed very positively in all nations, but fracking had little support, with just 20% of people seeing it positively in the UK, 15% in Germany and 9% in France. Nuclear power was also unpopular: only 23% of those in France, where it supplies the vast majority of electricity, have a favourable opinion. ...

More see link above.

Australia's summer broke 205 weather records, climate group says
BBC, 9 hours ago
Quoting 89. hotroddan:



Sad that somebody would urge for mass unrest to push their agenda.

Yes, me too had rather we destroy all our livelihoods in silence and ignorance. Please, go on. I know paradise is around the corner and you can help me into it. Thank you.
Quoting 92. BaltimoreBrian:

Peaceful protest is not 'mass unrest'.

Oh yes it is, the authorities will see to that.
Quoting 84. BaltimoreBrian:

6 dead in Texas, Kansas wildfires

Wow.
I can't believe this is published!
Report: Trump considering cuts to Coast Guard, airport security to fund border wall
The Hill, by Rebecca Savransky - 03/07/17 10:42 PM EST
The Trump administration is reportedly considering cutting funding to the Coast Guard, the Transportation Security Administration (TSA) and other agencies to find money for the president's proposed border wall and immigration enforcement plans.
The Washington Post reported that a draft plan, created by the Office of Management and Budget (OMB), would also cut the budget of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA).
The budget for the Coast Guard would be cut by about 14 percent, from $9.1 billion in 2017 to $7.8 billion under the drafted proposal. The TSA and FEMA budgets would be cut by about 11 percent to $4.5 billion and $3.6 billion, respectively, according to The Post. ...

Original article in Wapo
Happy hurricane season!

"Nuisance" floods may cost U.S. cities as much as major hurricane disasters - scientists
by JD Capelouto | @jdcapelouto | Thomson Reuters Foundation, Tuesday, 7 March 2017 16:00 GMT
As climate change causes sea levels to rise, escalating costs from minor floods are expected to hit U.S. coastal cities ...
137. elioe
Made another picture about possible areas of tropical cyclogenesis. Click to expand.



I'm beginning to wonder, if South Pacific will have the least active season on record. The record to beat is 3 named storms, and the region has produced only one during this season.
Quoting 123. wilsonbiggs:

Hey, been gone for a few days - looks like they moved the whole blogs changing thing back? Coolio.


How do you mean? It seems they're still planning on shutting down all the blogs except this one, unless there's been another update I missed?
Terrible, terrible news. >_<


Oh no! Not again!

I75 is still closed from Naples to Miami. Expectations are the highway will stay closed all day.
Local news reports fire burning right along the edges of the highway.

6000 acres and 30% contained

Link

Amazing image from Collier County. nbc-2.com


People Cause Most U.S. Wildfires
NASA Earth Observatory, March 7, 2017

142. elioe
Quoting 138. hatrickp:



How do you mean? It seems they're still planning on shutting down all the blogs except this one, unless there's been another update I missed?
Terrible, terrible news. >_<


A Disqus channel has been created, to try to act as a replacement for member blogs. And although this Category 6 blog remains on WU, apparently its commenting section also moves to Disqus. (And I don't have any clue how that actually works. Like that a Disqus thread is embedded to Category 6 blog?)
Quoting 122. Grothar:

This will be a very active hurricane season. Very, very active. All other seasons were disasters. Believe me There will be blobs all over the place. These blobs will be so great. There will be sacculiformic blobs, nefastous blobs, basculous blob, canaliculated blobs. With near neutral ENSO conditions expected to near mid-summer, it is not out of the question. Although conditions might be trending towards el nino at the end of the season. Either way, I believe we will have another above-average season.

16-8-4.


too early to get out the dictionary
Quoting 142. elioe:

And I don't have any clue how that actually works. Like that a Disqus thread is embedded to Category 6 blog?

Exactly. Below a link to a random Finnish-swedish site which uses Disqus for its forum. As I've already got an Disqus account I could happily comment in there right away - if I had only a clue what they're talking about, lol. Your Disqus account should pop up as well. LINK Or this one which is actually in Finnish: LINK
--------------------------------------

Cyclone Enawo hits Madagascar
New BBC weather video, 8th March 2017 Last updated at 11:40
Good Morning; looks like a few deaths from Enawo have been confirmed per the post from Barbantz below. Not looking good over the next 24 hours for the Capitol in terms of flooding..........Looks like that huge patch of rain and convection moved right over, or just to the North of, Antananarivo earlier this morning.

Most recent shot:


Earlier this am:
And the Conus forecast for today and current look; a lot quieter today than the last few days as the low in Canada moves away and high pressure moves into the mid-section and plains:






And 97S keeps trying to get it together behind Enawo: thankfully, the current models take it to the NW away from Madagascar.



First pics from Enawo's aftermath in Antalaha, the area of landfall, on a public FB-page: Link

Latest airmass pic from Southern Africa shows Enawo fanning out bigly!

Click to enlarge.
I am not tech saavy and have no idea of what Disqus is; makes me think of an ancient Olympian throwing a disc.............

Image result for pictures of ancient discus throwers


Perhaps this is Grothar................................
Quoting 124. wilsonbiggs:



Could you say it'll be tremendous? Big league?

I think if we don't get an El Nino we could have a big league season with storms, storms, storms. Believe me. It's gonna be yuge.
Quoting 142. elioe:



A Disqus channel has been created, to try to act as a replacement for member blogs. And although this Category 6 blog remains on WU, apparently its commenting section also moves to Disqus. (And I don't have any clue how that actually works. Like that a Disqus thread is embedded to Category 6 blog?)


Yes, it will be very similar to how the comments are situated now. The blog post is on the top of the page, the comments are under it, using Disqus.
Quoting 150. weathermanwannabe:

I am not tech saavy and have no idea of what Disqus is; makes me think of an ancient Olympian throwing a disc.............

Image result for pictures of ancient discus throwers


Perhaps this is Grothar................................


Hmm. You think he's that ripped? Wowsa. Come to momma, Gro!
Florida's drought of hurricanes ended last year but they dodged a potentially huge impact from Matthew. Could not have been a closer call. Miami and Tampa have been spared for a very long time. Basins are eerily quiet. Could it be a sign the Atlantic/Gulf/Caribbean are going to explode with a hyper active season?
NC statewide tornado drill today in about 15 minutes, I guess for the kiddos at school (who aren't on break). NWS is also interested to see what the NAM shows as far as temperature profile for our possible snow this weekend, it only runs up to 3.5 days I guess for detail.

Quoting 121. no1der:





You seem to be correct about modern hail and gicel being from different roots, but according to whoever did wiktionary's etymology (grain of salt?), the word ice did not come from gicel.

gicel: From Proto-Germanic *jekulaz ‎(“icicle, ice”) (compare Old Norse jǫkull, Old Frisian itsil ‎(“spur”), Old High German ihilla), diminutive of Proto-Germanic *jekô ‎(“ice, glacier”) (compare dialectal German Jäch ‎(“hoarfrost”), Old Norse jaki ‎(“piece of ice”)), from Proto-Indo-European *yeǵ- ‎(“ice, icicle”)

ice: From Middle English is, from Old English īs, from Proto-Germanic *īsą (compare West Frisian iis, Dutch ijs, Low German Is, German Eis, Danish, Swedish and Norwegian is), from Proto-Indo-European *h₁eyH- (compare Lithuanian ýnis ‎(“glazed frost”), Russian и́ней ‎(ínej, “hoarfrost”), Ossetian их ‎(ix), ех ‎(ex, “ice”), Persian یخ ‎(yax)),Kurdish qeş.
Study finds knowledge gaps on protecting cultural sites from climate change

Climate change is tricky with barrier islands too. They change shape every day like a moving tectonic plate; too small to notice. They change at a faster rate but generally consistent with the wind patterns (S-SW most of the year). In addition to sea-level rise and possibly stronger hurricanes (even if not as frequent, inlets get carved out in weak storms) will warmer oceans have an impact on what prevailing winds the coasts sees?
The solar collectors came on at 8:10 a.m...producing 92° F... 116° at 9:00 a.m...They were still producing 73° at 4:30 yesterday!

Quoting 153. GreyJewel:



Hmm. You think he's that ripped? Wowsa. Come to momma, Gro!


holy crap...thats funny
My girl is 100% Finnish. Her parents and grandparents are (were) all Finnish! Here is a mug shot of her mug:

As is the case every Atlantic hurricane season, for the strongest high cat hurricanes, it boils down (literally) to warm sst's and a low shear window for any given storm; no way to know this far out as to how many this year and as to which individual storm will take advantage of those conditions and in what region.  SST's will not be problem this year in the Caribbean and Gulf but we have to see what enso phase is in place in August and September and how shear sets up overall this year: 



Enawo is finally starting to dry out a bit: might be a good thing for that band off the West coast to be able to rotate in to give a little bit of short-term drought relief to the Southern half of Madagascar if it can hold together on the way down.





Victim of "Zeus"-Galateia storm in the Mediterranean:



Malta's Azure Window collapses into the sea
BBC, 2 hours ago


The arch in the "Game of Thrones". Source.
Quoting 157. ChiThom:

The solar collectors came on at 8:10 a.m...producing 92° F... 116° at 9:00 a.m...They were still producing 73° at 4:30 yesterday!

Pardon my ignorance. Do you use these to heat your home?
Area of interest: Ionian Sea / Balkans.



Quoting 122. Grothar:

This will be a very active hurricane season. Very, very active. All other seasons were disasters. Believe me There will be blobs all over the place. These blobs will be so great. There will be sacculiformic blobs, nefastous blobs, basculous blob, canaliculated blobs. With near neutral ENSO conditions expected to near mid-summer, it is not out of the question. Although conditions might be trending towards el nino at the end of the season. Either way, I believe we will have another above-average season.

16-8-4.



People are saying!
Quoting 165. justmehouston:



We use them for supplemental heating, and our heating bills are very small, indeed.
If TWC is going to do anything right,then please bring back the hurricane song!
I like the primitive blog messaging in here. It will be hard to get used to a more advanced system. I'm already getting lost over there! Posting pictures is easy, but I'll have to learn hot links (or whatever they call it)
MIT professor is wrong on climate change, his colleagues warn Trump

MIT professor Richard Lindzen’s contrarian views have lent the appearance of credibility to those who deny human activity is causing the planet to warm, but have caused deep angst among his colleagues at the university’s vaunted program in atmospheres, oceans, and climate.

Now, the retired professor has spurred the rest of the program’s faculty to write a letter to President Trump refuting Lindzen’s position that climate change doesn’t pose a threat worth addressing and informing him that their colleague doesn’t represent their views or those of the vast majority of other climate scientists.


In interviews, some of the professors accused Lindzen, who acknowledges accepting thousands of dollars from the fossil fuel industry, of “intellectual dishonesty” that has tarred their program.


Link
No snow here, but it's a "mill wind". (10 to 32 mph)
Damage in Antalaha: 80% of the houses damaged and almost 100% of agriculture:


Quoting 164. barbamz:

Victim of "Zeus"-Galateia storm in the Mediterranean:



Malta's Azure Window collapses into the sea
BBC, 2 hours ago



So Sad...
Wow; can't tell from the picture below if that is rain flooding or coastal storm surge flooding.
Quoting 170. ChiThom:

I like the primitive blog messaging in here. It will be hard to get used to a more advanced system. I'm already getting lost over there! Posting pictures is easy, but I'll have to learn hot links (or whatever they call it)

Using a html editor might be helpful, like this one:
http://www.html.am/html-editors/online-html-edito r.cfm
Format your text, create your links and then copy and paste them.
But I hope WU will be able to adapt Disqus to some of our familiar conveniences.
Quoting 176. barbamz:


Thanks barbamz. I see there is a tutorial, too. I'll need that. Great information. :-)
Southern California overdue for major earthquake, study says

MARCH 8, 2017, 7:35 AM| Geologists are out with a startling warning that Southern California is overdue for a major and possibly catastrophic earthquake. A new study says it's expected to hit along the San Andreas Fault north of Los Angeles. It could have a magnitude of 7.5 or higher. CBS News science and futurist contributor Michio Kaku, a physics professor at the City University of New York, joins "CBS This Morning" to discuss the threat.

Link
I am not a scientist, but aluminum chemtrails over Rhode Island? Sheesh! If you check flightradar24.com you can see where those aircraft came from, and where they're going.
181. ChiThom

Don't disturb him, he's excavating that pile of manure , looking for a pony.
I think Enawo has had a more positive impact than negative. It's sad to see that some people have died and the death toll will likely rise, but how many would've died due to famine? Madagascar was dangerously close to a famine due to a long drought and the rains from Enawo have likely helped a lot to reduce that risk. Hopefully a more rain pattern takes place across Madagascar to help relieve their drought further!
How women farmers are battling climate change in Zimbabwe

“Climate change is really troubling us,” she said. “But we have nowhere to run to.”

Link
Quoting 183. Envoirment:

I think Enawo has had a more positive impact than negative. It's sad to see that some people have died and the death toll will likely rise, but how many would've died due to famine? Madagascar was dangerously close to a famine due to a long drought and the rains from Enawo have likely helped a lot to reduce that risk. Hopefully a more rain pattern takes place across Madagascar to help relieve their drought further!

Floodwaters are hardly a relief from drought. Their biggest problem, only exacerbated by this storm, is soil loss due to deforestation.
By 2030, half the world’s oceans could be reeling from climate change, scientists say

More than half the world’s oceans could suffer multiple symptoms of climate change over the next 15 years, including rising temperatures, acidification, lower oxygen levels and decreasing food supplies, new research suggests. By midcentury, without significant efforts to reduce warming, more than 80 percent could be ailing — and the fragile Arctic, already among the most rapidly warming parts of the planet, may be one of the regions most severely hit.

The study, published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications uses computer models to examine how oceans would fare over the next century under a business-as-usual trajectory and a more moderate scenario in which the mitigation efforts promised under the Paris Agreement come into effect. In both scenarios, large swaths of the ocean will be altered by climate change.


Link
The short-term relief from some rain in Madagascar is not going to alleviate 3 years of drought and crop failure leading to wide spread famine issues but this storm will bring some more needed attention to the issue which will hopefully be reflected in post-storm humanitarian relief efforts..............This Island is already up this morning on some of the UN/European joint task force web sites as to current humanitarian crises as the result of natural disasters and Enawo brought them up to the top of the list in addition to the existing drought/famine issue.
About as dry as C IL will get, 58 w/ 20 d.p. for 22% RH, 30.23" w, WSW 15-20, gusting to 30. StL added a second EF-1 yesterday and heard that red dot I couldn't find info for may have been from our Tues. early a.m. radar warning, some bins S of us in area of radar rotation were damaged supposedly. Nothing in either paper, but wife had info yesterday, should make local papers today (not dailies like StL & Spfld).

Love the collectors CTom, make yourself or commercial?
Malta's Azure Window collapses into the sea
BBC News - 4 h ago.
Malta's famous Azure Window rock arch has collapsed into the sea after heavy storms. (...)
But fortunately, others are still standing on the Mediterranean island:


Edit: I should have read all the comments below before posting... :-)
Here is a portion of the post yesterday from the UN disaster relief site:


7 March, 2017

Tropical Cyclone Enawo struck north-eastern Madagascar at around 10.30 a.m. on 7 March 2017, travelling at an average speed of over 200 km per hour with peaks of 300 km per hour. About 760,000 people are likely to be directly affected and nine regions are at a high risk of flooding or damage from strong winds. The eye of the cyclone, as of noon (EAT) on 7 March, was at Antalaha commune, in north-eastern Madagascar. Enawo appears similar to Cyclone Ivan, which in 2008 affected 525,000 people and displaced 195,000 people.  

The regions more at risk are Analanjirofo, Sava and Atsinanana. However, the cyclone is also threatening Madagascar's capital Antananarivo, home to more than 1 million people, as flooding and water stagnation could lead to outbreaks of life-threatening waterborne diseases. Madagascar is already suffering from severe drought, particularly in the south of country, which left more than 850,000 people severely food insecure. Water consumption in Madagascar had already declined to one liter per person per day in drought-affected districts, and water scarcity across the affected regions remains critical. Yet the Action plan for Southern Africa, which requested US$155 million to address the needs of 978,000 people in Madagascar, remains severely underfunded.

OCHA has deployed an UNDAC (UN Disaster Assessment and Coordination) team, due to arrive in Madagascar today. Meanwhile, the United Nations and partners are working closely with the Government’s office of national disaster and risk management (BNGRC) to respond to the immediate humanitarian needs. UN agencies, including UNICEF, WFP, and FAO, have scaled up their presence to support the Government in responding to the potentially devastating humanitarian impacts of this natural disaster.

Quoting 176. barbamz:


Using a html editor might be helpful, like this one:
http://www.html.am/html-editors/online-html-edito r.cfm
Format your text, create your links and then copy and paste them.
But I hope WU will be able to adapt Disqus to some of our familiar conveniences.


Is this blog going to be using Disqus?
Quoting 189. dabirds:


Handmade by me! :-)

P,S. I've been making hot air collectors for over 45 years, for myself and family. These are third generation.
'One morning we came in and everything was dead': Climate change and Oregon oysters

Link
Quoting 152. 1Zach1:



Yes, it will be very similar to how the comments are situated now. The blog post is on the top of the page, the comments are under it, using Disqus.

If so, I for one will no longer be posting here. Oh well. More free time off the web.
Effects Of Global Warming On Display In Antarctica

Listen· 3:47

March 8, 20175:05 AM ET
Heard on Morning Edition
James McClintock, a marine biologist, talks with David Greene about how warming temperatures have had a dramatic impact on the glacier near the U.S. Palmer Station in Antarctica.

Link
Quoting 172. ChiThom:

No snow here, but it's a "mill wind". (10 to 32 mph)


I hear there's thousands without power in Michigan right now, I can believe it.

Here's what it looks like behind my barn in my young orchard right now.

Quoting 197. gr8lakebreeze:


It looks like that here, too.
The best time to plant a tree? "Ten years ago"
Actually, we started getting cherries after about seven years.
Clevedon residents watch livestock floating down river in 'worst ever' floods

Clevedon residents are reporting huge stock losses as the town east of Auckland is hit by the worst floods in a generation.

Local farmers and residents have spent the day saving what animals they could, but know when the waters eventually recede the full toll of the floods will be revealed.

Resident Kay Hinds​ said there were ongoing efforts to rescue stranded stock, but there was "not a lot of high ground" available.


Link
7 rescued from submerged cars in Maui flood

Link
Quoting 195. BayFog:


If so, I for one will no longer be posting here. Oh well. More free time off the web.

What's the issue with Disqus?
Quoting 147. weathermanwannabe:

And 97S keeps trying to get it together behind Enawo: thankfully, the current models take it to the NW away from Madagascar.

SW rather, passing the Mascarenes to the south:



Check the Euro's loop here.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 201. 1Zach1:


What's the issue with Disqus?

Privacy.
Quoting 192. BayFog:



Is this blog going to be using Disqus?


Quit yer whining and move up in the werld,breaux, LOL

: P

Patrap DISQUS TEST run 101
108 Comments Edit

Quoting 205. Patrap:



Quit yer whining and move up in the werld,breaux, LOL

: P

Patrap DISQUS TEST run 101
108 Comments Edit



Adios.
Quoting 185. oldnewmex:


Floodwaters are hardly a relief from drought. Their biggest problem, only exacerbated by this storm, is soil loss due to deforestation.


Apologies, I only saw the real extent of the flooding after I posted that.