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Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor Bearing Down on the Philippines

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 11:52 AM GMT on August 11, 2013

Earth's strongest and most dangerous tropical cyclone so far in 2013 is Category 4 Super Typhoon Utor, which is closing in on the northern Philippine Island of Luzon with 150 mph sustained winds. Landfall is expected at approximately 20 UTC (4 pm EDT) Sunday near Casigran. Satellite imagery shows a formidable storm with well-organized spiral bands, a prominent 15-mile diameter eye, and good (but not excellent) upper-level outflow. Ocean temperatures are very warm, about 30°C (86°F), which is approximately 0.5 - 1.0°C above average. These warm waters extend to tremendous depth, giving Utor a huge source of energy to tap into. Wind shear is low, 5 - 10 knots. Theoretically, the Maximum Potential Intensity (MPI) that Utor can achieve under these conditions is sustained winds of 185 mph. However, Utor will not have time to reach that strength before encountering Luzon. Utor is a very wet storm, and will likely bring a large swath of 8+ inches of rain across Luzon. These rains will cause dangerous flash flooding and mudslides. Utor will likely weaken to a Category 1 storm as it passes over Luzon, but is expected to re-intensify to a Category 2 storm before hitting China a few hundred miles south of Hong Kong about 20 UTC on Tuesday.

Utor is a Marshallese word for squall line, and has been used for three tropical cyclones in the Western Pacific--in 2001, 2006, and 2013. Typhoon Utor is called Typhoon Labuyo in the Philippines. Utor's 150 mph winds make it the strongest tropical cyclone globally so far in 2013. Earth's previous most powerful tropical cyclone of 2013 was Typhoon Soulik, which reached Category 4 strength with 145 mph winds on July 10. Soulik weakened to a Category 2 storm before hitting Taiwan on July 12.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Typhoon Utor taken at 04:30 UTC on Sunday, August 11. Image credit: NASA.

The Philippines no stranger to powerful typhoons
The Philippines lie in the most tropical cyclone-prone waters on Earth, and rarely escape a year without experiencing a devastating typhoon. Usually, these storms impact the northern Philippine island of Luzon, but last year, Earth's deadliest weather disaster of 2012 occurred on the southern Philippine island of Mindanao, where Super Typhoon Bopha struck as a Category 5 super typhoon with winds of 160 mph (260 km/h), on December 3. Bopha made two additional landfalls in the Philippines, on central Visayas and on Palawan, on December 4. The typhoon left 1901 people dead, mostly on the island of Mindanao, making Bopha the 2nd deadliest typhoon in Philippine history. Bopha affected over 5.4 million people and left over 700,000 people homeless. With damages estimated at $1.7 billion, Bopha was the costliest natural disaster in Philippines history.


Figure 2. December 7, 2012: rescuers and residents look for missing victims amongst toppled tree trunks and coconut shells after flash floods caused by Super Typhoon Bopha hit Compostela Valley on Mindanao Island in the Philippines on December 3 - 4, 2012. (AP Photo/Jay Morales, Malacanang Photo Bureau, HO)

Quiet in the Atlantic
There are no tropical cyclone threat areas in the Atlantic to discuss today. Some of the models are suggesting a strong tropical disturbance capable of becoming a tropical storm could form by Saturday in the Gulf of Mexico near Mexico's Yucatan Peninsula, in association with a stalled cold front expected to push off the Southeast U.S. coast late this week.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. VR46L
Quoting 1500. PensacolaDoug:
G'mornin' gang. I'll try not to tick anyone off today.


LOL!!!

Your not the only one who seems to do so ... but I am trying to be good and stay away from trouble ...but sometimes its hard to!
It doesn't take much. Just question the pet theory a little.
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone, A pleasant 73 degrees with a not so pleasant 73 degree dewpoint. I might be able to swim to school today. It's day two of four where I'll spend it showing kindergartners how to jump, skip and walk a tightrope to see if they can do it, too.

Anyone see CoopsWife? Breakfast's on the sideboard:Shrimp-and-Grits Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, Corn Waffles With Cajun Vegetables and Shrimp, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, Canadian bacon, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!
1504. LargoFl
I was just checking all the nws forecasts..all say it is too early for a weekend forecast, as nothing has formed yet and confidence is real low....but most of them do say, tropical moisture will get into the gulf, so for my area in central florida the rain chances go up to 50/60% fri-sat...we'll see what happens.
1505. IKE

Quoting LargoFl:
I was just checking all the nws forecasts..all say it is too early for a weekend forecast, as nothing has formed yet and confidence is real low....but most of them do say, tropical moisture will get into the gulf, so for my area in central florida the rain chances go up to 50/60% fri-sat...we'll see what happens.
NWS in Tallahassee doesn't even mention a low in the GOM....yet.
NWS Mobile mentions it.
1507. GatorWX
Quoting 1502. PensacolaDoug:
It doesn't take much. Just question the pet theory a little.


pet theories?? On here?

LoL

Morning all!! Nice dry albeit hot day yesterday. Went to the beach and baked. Feeling it today. Looks to be a similar day today.

1508. IKE
6Z GFS @ 129 hours.....


1509. MahFL
Quoting 1409. sar2401:

...I think having pepper spray is a good idea for any law-abiding citizen. It's non-lethal and can save you from serious injury or death. A gun is meant to kill, and, if you need one, there is no substitute...


I don't recall ANY story in the press about a citizen having to shoot a looter dead in ANY Hurricane event, in the USA.
Anyone else recall such a story ?
good.morning..another.front?
Good morning to all. Some scattered showers will move thru PR today as the Tropical Wave moves away from our longitudes with trailing moisture.
1513. IKE
From New Orleans NWS....

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THIS WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MADE THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24 HRS WITH
RESPECT TO THE TROPICS WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH NOTHING REALLY
DEVELOPING. THE GFS MOVES THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
ERN/CNTRL CARIBBEAN TO THE WEST UNTIL IT REACHES THE FAR WRN
CARIBBEAN AND THEN STARTS TO TURN IT INTO THE TROUGH IN THE GULF. BY
LATE SAT A SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL/N-CNTRL GULF DEVELOPS AND THEN
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NE AND INTO THE AL/FL COAST AS A TROPICAL
SYSTEM OR POSSIBLY A HYBRID. THE GFS IS PLAUSIBLE BUT NOT BUYING WHY
SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM WOULD START TO TURN RIGHT AND RE-CURVE IN THE
GULF. TYPICALLY WEAKER SYSTEMS WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED MID LVL
STRUCTURE DONT TEND TO FOLLOW THE STEERING CURRENTS AS MUCH AND WILL
JUST KEEP MOVING WEST...WHICH IS WHAT THE ECMWF DOES. IN FACT THE
ECMWF NEVER EVEN GETS THE WAVE NORTH OF 20N LAT. IF THIS WAVE DOES
NOT DEVELOP BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN THEN THE ECMWF MAKES
FAR MORE SINCE AND THUS WHY WE ARE USING THE ECMWF WINDS RIGHT NOW
FOR FRI-SUN. IF THE WAVE CAN GET SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED IN THE CARIBBEAN
THEN WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS SYSTEM AND THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MAY BE RIGHT. /CAB/
Quoting 1509. MahFL:


I don't recall ANY story in the press about a citizen having to shoot a looter dead in ANY Hurricane event, in the USA.
Anyone else recall such a story ?


I don't know about in the press, but we had a small group of teens drive down our one way road out in the country with no lights on, get out and head towards the three houses here. My one neighbor has a family member who is mentally damaged and rarely sleeps. He was up and staring outside, saw them and woke his brother up. Ozzie went out with a shotgun and they ran from my yard, his and his daughters. This was at the beginning of a hurricane. So yeah, there are those who go out looking for houses of people who have evacuated.
NAWLINS NWS misspelled SENSE as SINCE. I guess that's why they're mets and not English majors.
1516. IKE
5 day qpf.........


1517. ncstorm
1518. GatorWX
Actually I suppose a bit moister than yesterday, but overall fairly dry for FL in mid August. Referring to Caribbean low, it seems broad and conditions are not great. We'll see what happens. I can't imagine conditions won't improve over time. They're quite hostile however. It's been an interesting season thus far. Hard to imagine what's going to happen. 15-18 mostly weak systems, or are things going to really pop sooner or later? Looks like 2006 right now. Shear has been awfully persistent. Long way to go and obviously climatology tells us were still in the infancy of a given season.

After reading TWO and several NWS discussions this morning, I have to agree to discount latest run of
GFS regarding Developing a system in the Gulf.
Just doesn't make sense for a weak system to turn
Northward as GFS is showing.
LET 2013 HURRICANE SEASON BEGIN, BUT FIRST




SET THE TIMER TO 3 DAYS
Scenes of storm horror in 'Labuyo'-hit Aurora



Power lines were toppled, houses were destroyed and the roof of a public hospital was blown off in Casiguran town, Aurora province after typhoon Labuyo (international codename Utor) made landfall here early Monday.

Footage taken by ABS-CBN News showed scenes of devastation in the typhoon-hit town. Roads in Casiguran were rendered impassable due to toppled trees. Some of the trees fell on top of houses while concrete lampposts were also downed by the typhoon.

The municipal government said 80% of infrastructure in the town was destroyed including schools, roads and houses.

The town has become isolated from the rest of Aurora due to lack of cell phone signals. Road networks linking Casiguran to other parts of Aurora were cut off due to landslides and floods in some areas, ABS-CBN reporter Raffy Santos said.

Local officials said they are having a hard time assessing the damage due to lack of communication.

Residents admitted Typhoon Labuyo is the strongest typhoon to hit Casiguran. One fear among residents is a possible lack of food and potable water if the town remains isolated.

As of posting, there is no way to bring goods into Casiguran except via the sea route, plane or chopper.

Strong winds also tore off the roof of the local hospital, the report said. %u201CPatients are now being moved to the town hall where they will set up a makeshift hospital and treatment center until help arrives,%u201D Santos reported.

Aurora Governor Gerardo Noveras earlier said some parts of the province are currently suffering from power outages and communication problems as Labuyo's strong wind toppled several trees and electric posts.

The hardest hit towns in Aurora are Dinalungan, Dilasag and Casiguran, according to the province's civil defense office. Landslides also remain a threat to motorists and residents in the said towns.

In Dinalungan, several electric posts were toppled, leaving the town without electricity, according to Mayor Tito Tubigan.

At least 106 units in a housing project and 489 more around the town were damaged after being battered by the typhoon.

Twelve school buildings were also damaged in the town. Some 135 individuals were also evacuated to a nearby school.

The province's agriculture sector was also hit by the typhoon, but authorities have yet to make an assessment of the damage.

'Labuyo' weakens

In its 11 a.m. update, PAGASA said Labuyo weakened after interacting with the rugged terrrains of north Luzon.

Labuyo was located within the vicinity of Baguio as of 10 a.m., and was packing maximum winds of 140 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 170 kph.

The typhoon was moving west northwest at 19 kph.

At a press conference, PAGASA forecaster Jori Loiz said Labuyo may exit the Philippine landmass through La Union province on Monday afternoon if it maintains its speed and direction.

Labuyo is forecast to be 360 kms west of Sinait, Ilocos Sur or outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning.

Loiz explained that Labuyo was being prevented by a high pressure ridge from moving northward.

Public storm warning signal number 3 remains hoisted over Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Ilocos Sur, Benguet, La Union and Pangasinan.

Signal number 2 remains up over Isabela, Aurora, Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Abra, Southern Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Tarlac and Nueva Ecija.

The rest of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Babuyan Group of Islands, Calayan Group of Islands, Pampanga, Bulacan, Bataan, Rizal, Northern Quezon, Polillo Island and Metro Manila remain under signal no. 1.

An estimated rainfall of 7 - 15 millimeters per hour (moderate-heavy) is expected within the typhoon's 500-km diameter.

Residents in low-lying and mountainous areas under signal numbers 3, 2 and 1 are advised against possible floods and landslides.

The typhoon continues to enhance the southwest monsoon (habagat) , bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Southern Luzon and Western Visayas.

Fishermen especially those using small sea crafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Southern Luzon and western seaboard of Visayas due to big waves generated by the typhoon. With reports by Raffy Santos, ABS-CBN News; and Dharel Placido, ABS-CBNnews.com
I'm off to go 'play' with the kiddies. Everyone have a great Monday!
labuyu?
1524. ncstorm
east coast threat area seems to be increasing with the SPC outlook for day 2..

1525. ncstorm
precip up to 384 hours
still 20% the next 5 days
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK.
THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

1528. ncstorm
NWS, Wilmington, NC..will be back later..we could be looking at a serious rain threat..

A COLD FRONT WILL WAVER BACK
AND FORTH ACROSS THE AREA AS WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE RIPPLE ALONG
IT...WHILE THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW DIRECTS STRAIGHT OUT OF THE GOM
THROUGH THE PERIOD. ALL OF THESE FACTORS COMBINE TO SUPPORT
WIDESPREAD SHOWERS/TSTMS WITH EMBEDDED VERY HEAVY RAINFALL. ALTHOUGH
THE PAST 2 WEEKS HAVE BEEN DRY...MUCH OF THE REGION IS STILL
ABOVE...TO WELL ABOVE...NORMAL FOR RAINFALL THIS SUMMER...SO
FLOODING COULD BECOME A RENEWED CONCERN LATE IN THE WEEK. GFS/CMC
HINTING AT SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE FROM A TROPICAL WAVE IN THE GOM
AFFECTING THE AREA OVER THE WKND...AND ALTHOUGH IT IS TOO EARLY TO
COMMENT ON THIS POTENTIAL...ANY TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL ONLY ENHANCE
THE HEAVY RAIN THREAT AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.
1530. IKE

Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
CARIBBEAN SEA OR SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDDLE TO LATE WEEK.

THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

Uh...you left out a line NHC!!!!!!
Good Morning/Evening.

What are Cajun Vegetables? (corn and potatoes with ole bay? Swamp Cabbage and Greens?)

In our fleet of hurricane response equipment, do we have temporary cell towers with power generators?
1533. ncstorm
that is one big wave about to emerge off the africa coast on the last frame


Quoting 1520. sebastianflorida:
LET 2013 HURRICANE SEASON BEGIN, BUT FIRST




SET THE TIMER TO 3 DAYS
It started over 2 months ago! Where were you?!
Quoting 1530. IKE:

Uh...you left out a line NHC!!!!!!
..who cares...I doubt they are even paying attention.
1536. IKE

Quoting Waltanater:
..who cares...I doubt they are even paying attention.

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

CORRECTED FOR MISSING SENTENCE

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDDLE TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone, A pleasant 73 degrees with a not so pleasant 73 degree dewpoint. I might be able to swim to school today. It's day two of four where I'll spend it showing kindergartners how to jump, skip and walk a tightrope to see if they can do it, too.

Anyone see CoopsWife? Breakfast's on the sideboard:Shrimp-and-Grits Eggs Benedict with asparagus and a creamy low fat shrimp sauce, Corn Waffles With Cajun Vegetables and Shrimp, whole wheat English muffins with poached egg whites, low fat cheese, ham, tomato and sauce, Apple Pie Breakfast Cakes, Canadian bacon, cheese danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Enjoy!



Did I hear some one call my name?? Cool and damp up here in Rhode Island, but we've had fantastic weather for the past week and that's my excuse for slacking off on the morning cooking!!
Quoting 1536. IKE:


TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

CORRECTED FOR MISSING SENTENCE

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDDLE TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Wow...they were awake! I take that back.
Good morning all, 75 here with a 74 dewpoint, 100% humidity. Air so thick I could feel it holding me back on my morning PT. 50-70% chance of rain here until Saturday, then it drops to a 30% chance, as of this moment lol. Have a great one all, peace from NOLA
1540. LargoFl
Well regardless of any development,guess we can count on higher rain chances...
With this flow pattern at 500 milibars it seems likely that a track for whatever forms in the NW Caribbean would move toward the FL Big Bend (Cedar Key) area just like the track for TS Arlene back in June.


1542. IKE
If there are going to be....just say 18 storms in the ATL this year....it's almost to the point of needing one per week to achieve that. Yeah...I know...multiple storms at one time. I'm just saying an average.
Quoting 1540. LargoFl:
Well regardless of any development,guess we can count on higher rain chances...


West coast of FL really need to watch this because there is a trough coming down and steering looks to be to the NE.

It seems as if when a model shows a Panhandle strike with a trough coming down that these systems always veer toward the FL Penisula of FL Big Bend. I would also watch for a system developing rapidly as it moves over the Loop Current.
Quoting 1521. AussieStorm:
Scenes of storm horror in 'Labuyo'-hit Aurora



Power lines were toppled, houses were destroyed and the roof of a public hospital was blown off in Casiguran town, Aurora province after typhoon Labuyo (international codename Utor) made landfall here early Monday.

Footage taken by ABS-CBN News showed scenes of devastation in the typhoon-hit town. Roads in Casiguran were rendered impassable due to toppled trees. Some of the trees fell on top of houses while concrete lampposts were also downed by the typhoon.

The municipal government said 80% of infrastructure in the town was destroyed including schools, roads and houses.

The town has become isolated from the rest of Aurora due to lack of cell phone signals. Road networks linking Casiguran to other parts of Aurora were cut off due to landslides and floods in some areas, ABS-CBN reporter Raffy Santos said.

Local officials said they are having a hard time assessing the damage due to lack of communication.

Residents admitted Typhoon Labuyo is the strongest typhoon to hit Casiguran. One fear among residents is a possible lack of food and potable water if the town remains isolated.

As of posting, there is no way to bring goods into Casiguran except via the sea route, plane or chopper.

Strong winds also tore off the roof of the local hospital, the report said. %u201CPatients are now being moved to the town hall where they will set up a makeshift hospital and treatment center until help arrives,%u201D Santos reported.

Aurora Governor Gerardo Noveras earlier said some parts of the province are currently suffering from power outages and communication problems as Labuyo's strong wind toppled several trees and electric posts.

The hardest hit towns in Aurora are Dinalungan, Dilasag and Casiguran, according to the province's civil defense office. Landslides also remain a threat to motorists and residents in the said towns.

In Dinalungan, several electric posts were toppled, leaving the town without electricity, according to Mayor Tito Tubigan.

At least 106 units in a housing project and 489 more around the town were damaged after being battered by the typhoon.

Twelve school buildings were also damaged in the town. Some 135 individuals were also evacuated to a nearby school.

The province's agriculture sector was also hit by the typhoon, but authorities have yet to make an assessment of the damage.

'Labuyo' weakens

In its 11 a.m. update, PAGASA said Labuyo weakened after interacting with the rugged terrrains of north Luzon.

Labuyo was located within the vicinity of Baguio as of 10 a.m., and was packing maximum winds of 140 kilometers per hour near the center and gusts of up to 170 kph.

The typhoon was moving west northwest at 19 kph.

At a press conference, PAGASA forecaster Jori Loiz said Labuyo may exit the Philippine landmass through La Union province on Monday afternoon if it maintains its speed and direction.

Labuyo is forecast to be 360 kms west of Sinait, Ilocos Sur or outside the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) by Tuesday morning.

Loiz explained that Labuyo was being prevented by a high pressure ridge from moving northward.

Public storm warning signal number 3 remains hoisted over Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Ifugao, Mt. Province, Ilocos Sur, Benguet, La Union and Pangasinan.

Signal number 2 remains up over Isabela, Aurora, Southern Cagayan, Kalinga, Abra, Southern Ilocos Norte, Zambales, Tarlac and Nueva Ecija.

The rest of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte, Apayao, Babuyan Group of Islands, Calayan Group of Islands, Pampanga, Bulacan, Bataan, Rizal, Northern Quezon, Polillo Island and Metro Manila remain under signal no. 1.

An estimated rainfall of 7 - 15 millimeters per hour (moderate-heavy) is expected within the typhoon's 500-km diameter.

Residents in low-lying and mountainous areas under signal numbers 3, 2 and 1 are advised against possible floods and landslides.

The typhoon continues to enhance the southwest monsoon (habagat) , bringing moderate to occasionally heavy rains over Southern Luzon and Western Visayas.

Fishermen especially those using small sea crafts are advised not to venture out into the seaboards of Southern Luzon and western seaboard of Visayas due to big waves generated by the typhoon. With reports by Raffy Santos, ABS-CBN News; and Dharel Placido, ABS-CBNnews.com


This is the reason why I am glad things have remained calm in the Atlantic. I pray that they remain Calm. A day without a hurricane is a good day.
Quoting 1542. IKE:
If there are going to be....just say 18 storms in the ATL this year....it's almost to the point of needing one per week to achieve that. Yeah...I know...multiple storms at one time. I'm just saying an average.


14 actually, already have 4 of that number knocked out.
Quoting 1513. IKE:
From New Orleans NWS....

HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND THE BIGGEST QUESTION IS THIS WAVE IN THE
CARIBBEAN. THE GFS MADE THE BIGGEST CHANGE OVER THE LAST 24 HRS WITH
RESPECT TO THE TROPICS WHILE THE ECMWF IS CONSISTENT WITH NOTHING REALLY
DEVELOPING. THE GFS MOVES THE TROPICAL WAVE CURRENTLY IN THE
ERN/CNTRL CARIBBEAN TO THE WEST UNTIL IT REACHES THE FAR WRN
CARIBBEAN AND THEN STARTS TO TURN IT INTO THE TROUGH IN THE GULF. BY
LATE SAT A SFC LOW OVER THE CNTRL/N-CNTRL GULF DEVELOPS AND THEN
BEGINS TO MOVE TO THE NE AND INTO THE AL/FL COAST AS A TROPICAL
SYSTEM OR POSSIBLY A HYBRID. THE GFS IS PLAUSIBLE BUT NOT BUYING WHY
SUCH A WEAK SYSTEM WOULD START TO TURN RIGHT AND RE-CURVE IN THE
GULF. TYPICALLY WEAKER SYSTEMS WITHOUT A WELL DEFINED MID LVL
STRUCTURE DONT TEND TO FOLLOW THE STEERING CURRENTS AS MUCH AND WILL
JUST KEEP MOVING WEST...WHICH IS WHAT THE ECMWF DOES. IN FACT THE
ECMWF NEVER EVEN GETS THE WAVE NORTH OF 20N LAT. IF THIS WAVE DOES
NOT DEVELOP BEFORE IT APPROACHES THE YUCATAN THEN THE ECMWF MAKES
FAR MORE SINCE AND THUS WHY WE ARE USING THE ECMWF WINDS RIGHT NOW
FOR FRI-SUN. IF THE WAVE CAN GET SOMEWHAT ORGANIZED IN THE CARIBBEAN
THEN WE WILL NEED TO CLOSELY WATCH THIS SYSTEM AND THE GFS AND
CANADIAN MAY BE RIGHT. /CAB/


It's turning NE because of a strong trough coming down. Infact only upper 70's for highs and upper 50's for lows in Nashville most of this week and that cool dry air is heading for the Gulf Coast.
The GFS not surpsingly drops CV development. the most inconsistent inconsistent model
Quoting 1530. IKE:

Uh...you left out a line NHC!!!!!!


Hi Ike. I didn't as they corrected the sentence.
Good morning!
Quoting 1547. wunderweatherman123:
The GFS not surpsingly drops CV development. the most inconsistent inconsistent model


I can see why as I am not that impressed with these wave coming off Africa right now however things are expect to change over the next 2 weeks.
1551. IKE
Caribbean starting to light up......


Is it next week yet? That is when things will get interesting.
1553. LargoFl
my guess is GFS is sensing a weakness in the trough,if that weakness does develop,that is where we should be watching..folks better than I at this maybe will tell us if it does in fact occur...my best guess if this does develop.flooding might just be the main event with this system...add tropical rains on top of days of rain from this cold front..not a good scenario for sure.
Here we go!

Quoting 1550. StormTrackerScott:


I can see why as I am not that impressed with these wave coming off Africa right now however things are expect to change over the next 2 weeks.
Stormtracker woke up early.Good for you theres many blobs to follow the entire day.
1556. LargoFl
GFS still says a big rain event in the same place as yesterday..
Good morning everyone...Convection with a vigorous spin can be found now emerging off of the north coast of Columbia. A wave axis that is now south of Dominican Republic. Looking at the synoptic pattern there is 2 ULL's to the north of the system if one were to get west of it and the other to the east of it that could provide ventilation of the system as it starts to lift off towards the north.



FIM-8





It appears we are in the 2-3 day time frame for development.
Quoting 1554. StormTrackerScott:
Here we go!

Here we go to track any blobs anywhere.
Infact a tropical system coming up toward FL will likely pull this Fall Like airmass all the way down to Mobile, New Orleans, and Pensacola this weekend with lows in the mid 60's.
I hope im wrong but i really dont see any activity getting going. Euro model i dont think has shown a single TS on any of our four storms this year. by now we should have already had a hurricane and the GFS is showing absolutelty nothing by august 28th. starting to get a little worried
1561. LargoFl
nam is now picking up something down by the yucatan..lower right hand corner..
This is the last place that needs rain especially with all the flooding Nashville endured last week.

Quoting 1557. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good morning everyone...Convection with a vigorous spin can be found now emerging off of the north coast of Columbia. A wave axis that is now south of Dominican Republics. Looking at the synoptic pattern there is 2 ULL's to the north of the system if one were to get west of it and the other to the east of it that could provide ventilation of the system as it starts to lift off towards the north.



FIM-8





It appears we are in the 2-3 day time frame for development.
Nice spin blob north of Colombia.
Quoting 1560. wunderweatherman123:
I hope im wrong but i really dont see any activity getting going. Euro model i dont think has shown a single TS on any of our four storms this year. by now we should have already had a hurricane and the GFS is showing absolutelty nothing by august 28th. starting to get a little worried
I think a big 2nd half of the season is in store for us, especially once the EPAC quiets down and the MJO returns by the end of the month just in time for the peak it may have a tendency to stick around in the Atlantic.
1565. MahFL
Quoting 1523. islander101010:
labuyu?


Typhoons there often have two names, one's a local name, for some reason.
Some parts of Nashville picked up over 12" rain in just a few days.


1567. LargoFl
1568. MahFL
Quoting 1563. prcane4you:
Nice spin blob north of Colombia.


What makes you think it's spinning ?
From Houston NWS discussion:

LASTLY THE GFS IS TRYING TO DEVELOP A TROPICAL LOW PRESSURE IN
THE NW CARIB ON THUR AND MOVES IT INTO INTO THE GULF FRI/SAT.
GIVEN UPPER LEVEL PATTERN THAT DEVELOPS OVER THE N GULF FOR THE
WEEKEND...SHOULD ANYTHING DEVELOP TROPICALLY IT WILL BE IN A
HIGHLY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL ALSO LIKELY
TAKE THE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE AREA TOWARDS FL PANHANDLE ON
SUNDAY. THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO KEEP AN EYE ON BUT OVERALL NOT
MUCH OF A CONCERN.
Quoting 1568. MahFL:


What makes you think it's spinning ?
1571. LargoFl
Nam now see's the weakness in the trough too,by the florida panhandle...
1572. MahFL
That big thunder storm north of Columbia sure sees to have zero shear on it......
Quoting 1570. stormwatcherCI:


Much further east than what the models seem to think.
1574. FOREX
Quoting 1554. StormTrackerScott:
Here we go!



Are you looking at the blob coming off of South America that is gaining your interest?
Quoting 1574. FOREX:


Are you looking at the blob coming off of South America that is gaining your interest?


Yup!
1577. MahFL
The blob has only 5kts of shear over it.
Quoting 1573. StormTrackerScott:


Much further east than what the models seem to think.
I noticed that but if you look at the FIM posted by Caleb it looks about right for where they show it going.
Quoting 1570. stormwatcherCI:
Good catch! Now waiting on the tropical wave to catch up to it which should only take a day or two and help lift it northwards in tandem with the upward motion of the MJO and the active monsoon trough. :)
Good Morning. Still having a little bit of difficulty understanding the new NHC outlooks. Several last week had the no formation expected for "5" days at the top and now this one is back to the 48 hours with the 5 day disclaimer at the bottom.

I think that what is happening is that if there is no potential for five days, then they state that; vs. if there is potential beyond 48 hours (within the 5 day timeframe), then they mention it as discussed.

Seems to me that the only time we will see a true 5 day outlook is at the beginning of the season, during lull periods, and again at the end of the season when there are no storms are on the horizon.

Almost begs the question as to what is the point when you can just as easily keep the 48?
1581. FOREX
Quoting 1575. StormTrackerScott:


Yup!


That area has been quite active for a week now.
A week ago the storms in that area were moving West into the E PAC. Guess we will see.
i wonder if shear is an issue in GOM this weekend.
Quoting 1579. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Good catch! Now waiting on the tropical wave to catch up to it which should only take a day or two and help lift it northwards in tandem with the upward motion of the MJO and the active monsoon trough. :)
The biggest problem for it right now is the high shear to the north. If that decreases we may get more than we bargained for.
More spin today off the coast of Panama.
1587. LargoFl
Tampa NWS...................THE WEAK UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH WILL HELP WEAKEN THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA RESULTING IN LIGHT WINDS AND MORE ACTIVE SEA BREEZES. THE
IMPACT ON OUR WEATHER FROM THE TROPICAL WAVE WILL DEPEND ON HOW
ORGANIZED IT BECOMES AND WHERE IT TRACKS. THE GFS AND CANADIAN
MODELS SHOW A SOMEWHAT MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM WHICH TURNS NORTHWARD
AFTER ENTERING THE GULF BY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF SHOWS A WEAKER
SYSTEM THAT CONTINUES TO MOVE WEST-NORTHWEST TOWARD MEXICO WITHOUT
DEVELOPMENT. I CHOSE TO BLEND THE GFS AND ECMWF WHICH WILL ALLOW
THE WAVE TO BRING TROPICAL MOISTURE INTO OUR REGION ON THURSDAY
AND PERSIST THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. WITH THIS IN MIND...I RAISED
POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE AREA THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY. THE WEEKEND FORECAST IS OF VERY LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT CHOSE
TO TREND MORE TOWARD CLIMATOLOGY WITH SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON
AND EVENING STORMS BOTH DAYS.

&&
Quoting 1564. GTstormChaserCaleb:
I think a big 2nd half of the season is in store for us, especially once the EPAC quiets down and the MJO returns by the end of the month just in time for the peak it may have a tendency to stick around in the Atlantic.
i hope so, so far i dont see anything on the models thatshow lo of activity to come but conditions do favor an active season.
Quoting 1554. StormTrackerScott:
Here we go!



don't beg
Local meteorologist just said "Atlantic is quiet and nothing expected over the next 7 days."
He must not check the models, or he believes the disturbance in the Caribbean will not amount to anything?
1591. LargoFl
1592. LargoFl
Quoting 1590. Sfloridacat5:
Local meteorologist just said "Atlantic is quiet and nothing expected over the next 7 days."
He must not check the models, or he believes the disturbance in the Caribbean will not amount to anything?
he may well be waiting for something to develop, nothing has right now, Thursday is the day we all must watch.
Quoting 1551. IKE:
Caribbean starting to light up......


Once that colombian low and Tropical wave merge,Erin or td 5 will be around the corner.
The pouch group analizes pouch 16L in Central Caribbean.

P16L
15N, 68W
700 hPa

WARNING. Recently, the models have been suggesting that P16L would dissipate and that the south Caribbean gyre would then, subsequently, develop and track to the northwest, as a separate circulation. I have not tracked the south Caribbean gyre because (1) it has remained a separate circulation from P16L and (2) past experience has taught me that the models tend to excessively develop the south Caribbean gyre. In today's ECMWF and GFS, the story is a little different. While P16L still appears to be nothing but a weak OW max, the subsequent circulation develops a little farther north (close to P16L) and moves along with the P16L wave (not after). So, at least for today, I will track what the model provides, which is a weak OW max that merges with the south Caribbean gyre and tracks northwestward. AS ALWAYS, be aware that these model forecasts have a high likelihood of being over developed.

ECMWF: South Caribbean gyre begins moving along with P16L (or its remnants) starting at 36 hours. Before that, P16L is simply a weak OW max. Tracks over south Yucatan.

GFS: Becomes a distinct pouch with a CL-trough intersection later than in ECMWF, not until 72 hours. Then, the small pouch with elevated OW tracks more northward, brushing against Cozumel and entering the Gulf of Mexico.

Link
Quoting 1588. wunderweatherman123:
i hope so, so far i dont see anything on the models thatshow lo of activity to come but conditions do favor an active season.
What do you think of the tropical storm most models are portraying in the gulf by the end of this week?
Good Morning!

7:07 am (11:07 GMT)

A hot, clear day ahead.


Dexter looks to the rising sun and wishes it was still Sunday. It's ok little buddy, everybody feels that way...

No rain again yesterday, or expected today. The end of the week looks wet though.



Record Report as of 5:15 AM EDT on August 11, 2013
...Record high minimum temperature set at West Palm Beach yesterday...
The low temperature at Palm Beach International Airport yesterday...August 10th...only dipped to 83 degrees fahrenheit. This breaks the old daily record for highest minimum temperature of 81 degrees...set back in 1998.

Record Report as of 8:15 AM EDT on August 12, 2013
...Record high minimum temperature tied at Miami yesterday...
The low temperature at Miami International Airport Sunday...August 11th...only dropped to 82 degrees fahrenheit. This ties the record high minimum temperature of 82 degrees...previously set in 1964.

Another busy day for me. Everyone have a great day, and...
Blog on!
Current conditions for the Caribbean. Notice heights across the central US starting to fall a sign of an approaching trough of low pressure.



The steering is zonal right now, but I suspect it will show a more southeast to northwest steering as the ridge weakens from the trough pushing against it.

Look at the arrow direction over the Western Gulf.





Is this going to be a storm when it hits the water?
Really showing a spin here.
1600. LargoFl
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK...CORRECTED
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT MON AUG 12 2013

CORRECTED FOR MISSING SENTENCE

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

OTHER SYSTEMS WITH FORMATION POTENTIAL BEYOND 48 HOURS...

A TROPICAL WAVE IS MOVING WESTWARD ACROSS THE CENTRAL CARIBBEAN SEA.
UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE FORECAST TO BECOME A LITTLE MORE CONDUCIVE
FOR THE FORMATION OF AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE NORTHWESTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA OR THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MEXICO BY MIDDLE TO LATE
WEEK. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...NEAR 0 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A LOW CHANCE...20
PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS.

1602. LargoFl
Quoting 1598. GTstormChaserCaleb:
Current conditions for the Caribbean. Notice heights across the central US starting to fall a sign of an approaching trough of low pressure.



The steering is zonal right now, but I suspect it will show a more southeast to northwest steering as the ridge weakens from the trough pushing against it.

Look at the arrow direction over the Western Gulf.





I'm telling you the people across the Central Gulf coast are in for a treat with highs maybe not even reaching 85 with lows around 64 or 65 from New Orleans over to Pensacola this weekend. A true taste of fall will be coming to those folks if this system developes and pushes toward the Big Bend.
From the Key West NWS Disco

GUIDANCE IS BECOMING MORE EMPHATIC WITH A SURGE OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE MOVING NORTHWESTWARD INTO OUR AREA BEGINNING LATE WEDNESDAY.
THIS IS ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE WESTERN
CARIBBEAN AT THAT TIME...WITH MOISTURE ALONG THE NORTHERN EXTENT OF
THE WAVE AXIS BEING DRAWN NORTHWARD ACROSS FLORIDA INTO A WEAKNESS
AT THE WESTERN END OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. WOULD EXPECT RAIN
CHANCES TO BEGIN INCREASING CONSIDERABLY ACROSS OUR AREA BY LATE
WEDNESDAY.
Quoting 1582. rmbjoe1954:
i wonder if shear is an issue in GOM this weekend.


Not shear, time over water. It's only going to have two days to become anything significant.
1606. VR46L
Quoting 1582. rmbjoe1954:
i wonder if shear is an issue in GOM this weekend.


Its not too bad for Gulf FSU Link Wind shear GFS 06Z
very bad!
1608. VR46L
Quoting 1599. seer2012:


Is this going to be a storm when it hits the water?
Really showing a spin here.


I don't think the Dust will have Cleared and the Shear is to be Bad over there ...But its a beauty of a wave !
The track the waves on the GFS is taking in the long range doesn't make any real sense. It's showing some of them emerging just south of the Azores. That just shows how unreliable things can be beyond 240 hours out.
A weak circulation NW of Colombia on this pass made earlier this morning.

1611. ncstorm
Quoting 1609. CybrTeddy:
The track the waves on the GFS is taking in the long range doesn't make any real sense. It's showing some of them emerging just south of the Azores. That just shows how unreliable things can be beyond 240 hours out.


both the GFS and Euro are showing the same thing..
1612. pcola57
Jet Stream seems a bit too South..
Sub Tropical is Very weak to non- existant..






1613. Grothar
Activity beginning in the Caribbean.

Forecast for central Illinois this week ..

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

Monday
40 % Chance of a Thunderstorms

84° F | 64° F

Tue
Partly Cloudy

79° F | 55° F

Wed
Clear

77° F | 54° F

Thurs
Partly Cloudy

75° F | 54° F

Fri
Partly Cloudy

77° F | 57° F
Quoting 1614. whitewabit:
Forecast for central Illinois this week ..

Monday Tuesday Wednesday Thursday Friday

Monday
40 % Chance of a Thunderstorms

84° F | 64° F

Tue
Partly Cloudy

79° F | 55° F

Wed
Clear

77° F | 54° F

Thurs
Partly Cloudy

75° F | 54° F

Fri
Partly Cloudy

77° F | 57° F


Nice, I'll trade, we just had our highest temp of the year yesterday for Downtown Orlando, a cool 96.
Quoting 1615. Naga5000:


Nice, I'll trade, we just had our highest temp of the year yesterday for Downtown Orlando, a cool 96.


Yeah 96 with a dewpoint of 77 making feel more like 108
Quoting 1612. pcola57:
Jet Stream seems a bit too South..
Sub Tropical is Very weak to non- existant..








The jet stream is coming south and you guys may get an early fall treat if this Caribbean disturbance can get strong enough to pull all of this cool air across the Mid South down toward the Gulf later this weekend.
Quoting 1616. StormTrackerScott:


Yeah 96 with a dewpoint of 77 making feel more like 108


What kills me is the stillness during the summer on dry days. Very little relief from a breeze makes it so much worse. It's the only thing I miss from growing up in South Florida, at least there was the sea breeze.
1619. ncstorm
HWRF 00z run--just my inexperience eye but looks to aim it at tampa





1620. pcola57
Utor Modis Aqua..



Still full of moisture at this time..



Still quite organized considering land fall yesterday..
My guess is EWR cycle today..

interesting next week
1622. pcola57
Quoting 1617. StormTrackerScott:


The jet stream is coming south and you guys may get an early fall treat if this Caribbean disturbance can get strong enough to pull all of this cool air across the Mid South down toward the Gulf later this weekend.


Morning Scott..
If it conmes to fruitation I will certianly take it.. :)
1623. Grothar
Quoting 1620. pcola57:
Utor Modis Aqua..



Still full of moisture at this time..



Still quite organized considering land fall yesterday..
My guess is EWR cycle today..



Please, no Latin.
Found this short video from wunderground and TWC interesting.

Three Super-Earths


Even though they're in the "Habitable Zone" that doesn't mean they're habitable.

Super Earths have 2 to 3 Earth surface Gravity, and probably hundreds of times Earth atmospheric surface pressure. This would be true especially if they spent their whole lifetime in the habitable zone or the cold zone, migrating in later, where their atmosphere would not have been blown away.

Don't get too excited. A human could never live on anything above about 8 masses (two surface gravity,) due to gravity alone. A fit, 180lbs guy would weight 360lbs on such a planet. Further, the planet would need to have a relatively thin atmosphere compared to mass, or we'd be crushed to death anyway.

They are also likely covered totally in water. 8 times the mass, and assuming similar composition, but the surface area is only 4 times larger, and gravity is twice as powerful, therefore mountains and continents can only build half as high, while oceans will average being twice as deep. Therefore the average habitable zone super-Earth has no solid surface, but is totally covered in liquid water to a depth of at least 5 to 10 miles or so. Aquatic life might be able to thrive there, and maybe weird flying creatures able to abuse the ultra-dense atmosphere. No humans allowed.
Just heard from a pastor who lives in Isabella Province, P.I. that the storm passed just to the north of them and they at least were spared the worst of it.


Seems like two separate areas, one for the Gulf appears to develop off the Yucatan peninsula in a few days
1627. Grothar
1628. hydrus
Utor is restrengthening..

JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting 1628. hydrus:
Utor is restrengthening..



It really would suck to live in the Philippines. They get hit by these things as fast as they can rebuild, and they're stronger on average than Atlantic landfalls, and it's all mountains and valleys, making inland flooding so much worse. You can't really construct a much worse living scenario on the planet.
1631. hydrus
Quoting 1619. ncstorm:
HWRF 00z run--just my inexperience eye but looks to aim it at tampa





If that were to pan out,we would be looking at a serious situation. ..Made me worry just looking at it.
Good day to everyone, the SW Caribbean becoming active now that some upward motion is returning to that region pull the SA monsoon trough north. Once the wave south of Hispaniola mix up with that moisture there is always a threat for TC genesis.



Plenty of vorticity in that area so a weak low could form later this evening or tomorrow.



A yellow circle could be coming later today.

Plenty of untapped TCHPs in the NW Caribbean as well as high sst Gulf.



This can provide a lot of heat that may fuel any potential upper air anticyclone along the ULL to its east may spark some intensification if it develops.



Regardless of development this is a classic setup for plenty of tropical moisture for the Mexico/Gulf The Panhandle to Central Mexico needs to watch this.

I will put the chance of cyclogenesis at 40% for now...
The fuel for this disturbance is plentiful across the western Caribbean and GOM with those high water temps and low wind shear expected. This system has a chance to becoming a strong trop. storm or hurricane before landfall expected on northern gulf coast. The area under threat from the steering currents that are setting up is going to extend from Louisiana to the west coast of Florida. Am leaning more to a FLA panhandle landfall and even west coast of FLA including Tampa.
new blog everyone !!
This is gonna be a nightmare scenario for the deep south with the ground so saturated this year. Flooding and some high winds from this system are a recipe for power outages from trees easily toppling from the ground being so saturated and water rises in lakes, rivers and streams already above normal levels.
Quoting 1613. Grothar:
Activity beginning in the Caribbean.



You think South Florida might have some big issues this season...It's been a long time since Wilma...seems like the last ten years has been comprised of near misses and fish storms except for Sandy and Irene...just a quick question....thanks...