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Category 4 Kenneth the strongest East Pacific late-season hurricane on record

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:43 PM GMT on November 22, 2011

Hurricane Kenneth has intensified into an impressive Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds in the Eastern Pacific. Kenneth is by far the strongest hurricane to appear so late in the season in the Eastern Pacific; the previous record was held by Hurricane Winnie of December 5, 1983, a Category 1 storm with 90 mph winds. There has not been an Atlantic hurricane as strong as Kenneth this late in the season, either; the latest of the seven November major hurricanes in the Atlantic was Hurricane Kate of November 21, 1985 (120 mph winds). Since 1949, here have been just three named storms that have formed in the Eastern Pacific after November 18. These three storms were an unnamed tropical storm on November 27, 1951; Tropical Storm Sharon on November 27, 1971; and Hurricane Winnie on December 5, 1983.

Kenneth is over 27°C waters and under light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, so could conceivably intensify further. However, I expect the storm has peaked, since it's tough for a hurricane to get much stronger than Kenneth's current intensity with ocean temperatures so close to the 26.5°C hurricane formation threshold. Satellite loops show an impressive storm with a large eye, good symmetry, and plenty of upper-level outflow. The relative lack of spiral bands and large, thick eyewall may qualify Kenneth to be a rare breed of hurricanes known as "annular". Annular hurricanes are a subset of intense tropical cyclones that are significantly stronger, maintain their peak intensities longer, and weaken more slowly than average tropical cyclones. The latest SHIPS model output indicates that Kenneth has passed the initial screening step to be considered an annular hurricane. Only 4% of all hurricanes are annular hurricanes.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Hurricane Kenneth.

Unnamed tropical storm from September 2 brings the Atlantic's 2011 tally to 19
Re-analysis has shown that a tropical disturbance that formed between Bermuda and Nova Scotia on September 2 briefly attained tropical storm status, according to an article posted yesterday by Ken Kaye at SunSentinel.com, quoting NOAA's lead seasonal hurricane forecaster Gerry Bell. The addition of the unnamed tropical storm to the record books brings this year's tally of named storms to nineteen, tying 2011 with 2010, 1995, and 1887 as the 3rd busiest year for tropical storms. Only 2005 and 1933 had more named storms since record keeping began in 1851. An average season has just eleven named storms. Here's my blog entry from September 2 on the unnamed tropical storm:

A well-organized low pressure system with a surface circulation but limited heavy thunderstorm activity due to high wind shear is 450 miles south of Halifax, Canada. This disturbance, (94L), is headed northeast out to sea, and is being given a 60% chance of developing into a tropical depression by NHC. 94L is under a high 25 - 30 knots of wind shear, but this shear is expected to fall to the moderate range, 10 - 20 knots, by Saturday morning. However, sea surface temperature will fall from 27°C today to 25°C Saturday morning underneath 94L, and the storm will have a very short window of time to get organized enough to get a name. At this point, it's really a subjective judgement call on whether or not 94L is already a tropical storm.

In addition, the Atlantic has gained one more hurricane for the year, as Nate was upgraded to a hurricane in post-season analysis. Nate hit Mexico's Bay of Campeche coast near Veracruz on September 11 as a weak tropical storm. The storm killed five people and caused minor damage near Veracruz. Nate brings this year's tally of hurricanes to seven, one hurricane above average.


Figure 2. True-color MODIS image of Tropical Storm Nate taken at 12:45 pm EDT Friday, September 9, 2011. At the time, Nate was a tropical storm with 50 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.

Invest 99L in the Atlantic moving over colder waters
In the Atlantic, Invest 99L, an extratropical storm in the middle Atlantic that is generating tropical storm-force winds, has moved over colder waters of 24°C and is looking less tropical than yesterday. The storm is moving northeastwards out to sea and over even colder waters, and is not a threat to any land areas. NHC is giving 99L a 10% chance of becoming a named subtropical storm.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1500 UTC

Thanks. Kenneth is just the kind of storm I like: powerful, beautifully symmetric--and absolutely no threat to anyone.

Good call on 94L/TS Unnamed, by the way. Nailed it...
Holy guacamole, Kenneth! I was thinking Kenneth was looking annular when I last checked around 2AM.
Thanks Dr. Masters.
What are the chances it makes a run at Hawaii?
Thank you Dr. Masters! This year on both sides, we have had weird occurrences, for example:
Ophelia made one of the best comebacks on record, which was a weird occurrence.
And now we got another surprise, a late season cat 4 hurricane in the EPAC. So much records this year.
Quoting overwash12:
What are the chances it makes a run at Hawaii?

Most likely slim.
But it's always good to keep a close eye.
Quoting Patrap:
1500 UTC


Kenneth has acne. :|

(sorry for the rapid fire posts)
EP132011 - Major Hurricane KENNETH

1530 UTC

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery




Quoting Neapolitan:
Thanks. Kenneth is just the kind of storm I like: powerful, beautifully symmetric--and absolutely no threat to anyone.

Good call on 94L/TS Unnamed, by the way. Nailed it...


Uh, you sound cocksure Kenneth isn't gonna get near Hawaii with any ooomph.
...

And, Dr. M, leave us not forget Iwa which became a hurricane Nov. 23, 1982. Only record for Iwa was, at that time, the most damaging "since record-keeping began" when it hit Kauai and Ni'ihau right before Thanksgiving. Not as strong as Kenneth... but then Kenneth sure looks like a candidate for annular.
2km Storm Relative IR Imagery/Loop with BD Enhancement Curve


...click image for Loop.

Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Uh, you sound cocksure Kenneth isn't gonna get near Hawaii with any ooomph.
...

And, Dr. M, leave us not forget Iwa which became a hurricane Nov. 23, 1982. Only record for Iwa was, at that time, the most damaging "since record-keeping began" when it hit Kauai and Ni'ihau right before Thanksgiving. Not as strong as Kenneth... but then Kenneth sure looks like a candidate for annular.

Hurricane Iniki also comes to mind.
(except that was september)
Quoting Patrap:

Thanks for the vid.
:)
Okay, 'fess up. One of you called for a Cat.4 yesterday, and I wanna know who.
..anytime
Quoting Articuno:

Hurricane Iniki also comes to mind.
(except that was september)


Yes, and Iniki surpassed Iwa in terms of strength and damages. Iniki is the only hurricane I've ever been near.
More footage:
My screenshot of tropical cyclones on Sept 2, where I noted 94L's 41 mph winds:

Link
"Nate brings this year's tally of hurricanes to seven, one hurricane above average."

While I don't like the continual references to the long term average without qualification, it does bring up a good point. Despite the seeming saturation of tropical storms, seven hurricanes is only just below the post-95 AMO+ average of eight. Brings it into perspective a little bit.

Fresh round of hacked climate science emails leaked online.

Climategate II?
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Uh, you sound cocksure Kenneth isn't gonna get near Hawaii with any ooomph.

To do so at this time of year would require it to travel across several thousand miles of increasingly cool waters while fighting strong shear and growing headwinds. So I'm not "cocksure" it won't make it to Hawaii; I'm just sure, period.
There wasn't even a ClimateGate One. A bit absurd to start with Two.
Quoting Neapolitan:

To do so at this time of year would require it to travel across several thousand miles of increasingly cool waters while fighting strong shear and growing headwinds. So I'm not "cocksure" it won't make it to Hawaii; I'm just sure, period.


LOL.

Happy Thanksgiving, Neo.
Greetings.
After some major flooding in and around the city of Port-of-Spain on Saturday, clean-up crews were at work yesterday when another cloudburst in the same area created havoc again.
Rivers overflowed, Vehicles washed away, homes damaged/flooded, walls down, roads blocked.

According to the newspaper this morning, it was the result of " A brief, persistent shower".
Not sure I understand the concept of that...... but I'm working on it.
Quoting aspectre:
There wasn't even a ClimateGate One. A bit absurd to start with Two.


Regardless of whatever semantics you want to use to keep yourself happy, it is still an interesting story as it backs up from a similar one two years ago.

Makes you wonder about the security. Being done over once is embarrassing, but twice just seems negligent. Unless it was leaked on purpose.

The timing of the release certainly seems to be.
Quoting Cotillion:
Fresh round of hacked climate science emails leaked online.

Climategate II?

Yeah, I guess the professional denialists feel the need to try attacking science again; they've got deep pockets, and their first attempt ended as a miserable failure, so why not give it another go? ;-)
....
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


LOL.

Happy Thanksgiving, Neo.

Likewise. I baked eighteen full-size pies last evening, and have a dozen more to do tonight. Thursday's my easy day... ;-)
Quoting pottery:
Greetings.
After some major flooding in and around the city of Port-of-Spain on Saturday, clean-up crews were at work yesterday when another cloudburst in the same area created havoc again.
Rivers overflowed, Vehicles washed away, homes damaged/flooded, walls down, roads blocked.

According to the newspaper this morning, it was the result of " A brief, persistent shower".
Not sure I understand the concept of that...... but I'm working on it.


Sad to hear. Hope no-one was seriously injured.

A brief, persistent shower? Hate to see what they call a flood.
Quoting Neapolitan:

Likewise. I baked eighteen full-size pies last evening, and have a dozen more to do tonight. Thursday's my easy day... ;-)

UPS will deliver here, you know......
24 pottery "Greetings.
After some major flooding in and around the city of Port-of-Spain on Saturday, clean-up crews were at work yesterday when another cloudburst in the same area created havoc again.
Rivers overflowed, Vehicles washed away, homes damaged/flooded, walls down, roads blocked.

According to the newspaper this morning, it was the result of " A brief, persistent shower".
Not sure I understand the concept of that...... but I'm working on it.
"

What's to understand? The Calabash dropped its leaves then regreened to announce the start of another rainy season this year.
All hail The Calabash.
Quoting pottery:

UPS will deliver here, you know......

;-)
Quoting pottery:
Greetings.
After some major flooding in and around the city of Port-of-Spain on Saturday, clean-up crews were at work yesterday when another cloudburst in the same area created havoc again.
Rivers overflowed, Vehicles washed away, homes damaged/flooded, walls down, roads blocked.

According to the newspaper this morning, it was the result of " A brief, persistent shower".
Not sure I understand the concept of that...... but I'm working on it.

That's sad, thank god your ok, is there any damage in your...home? Just hope there isn't any injuries. Is there?
Quoting Cotillion:


Sad to hear. Hope no-one was seriously injured.

A brief, persistent shower? Hate to see what they call a flood.

True!
We have had some incredible downpours recently, in small areas fortunately.
Had 5" in 3 hours overhead a couple weeks ago. Like a waterfall.
The clouds and sunsets have been great!

Looks like the rainy-season is tapering off right now though.
Quoting pottery:
" A brief, persistent shower"


Yeah, that was oddy phrased.

I don't think that word means what you think it means -- Inigo Montoya
Excerpts from ftp://ftp.tpc.ncep.noaa.gov/atcf/stext/11112212EP 1311_ships.txt:
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* KENNETH EP132011 11/22/11 12 UTC *

....

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/22/11 12 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
Quoting Neapolitan:

Yeah, I guess the professional denialists feel the need to try attacking science again; they've got deep pockets, and their first attempt ended as a miserable failure, so why not give it another go? ;-)


It could well be.

The supposed rationale for the file dump is curious. Trying to draw comparison between poverty and green energy investment. It could be done on purpose with trying to take a manufactured OWS type attitude to hide real motives. If it's really the views behind the person or people that did this, then it's rather peculiar. If poverty was really your main focus, there are far better targets. If you wanted to belittle climate change or climate scientists, there are probably more efficient ways of doing it.

Strange.
Quoting Articuno:

That's sad, thank god your ok, is there any damage in your...home? Just hope there isn't any injuries. Is there?

All is well here, Thanks.
I am 10 miles from the city.
The city is at the foot of the hills and there are several valley's that drain through the city suburbs.
Over the years, un-regulated development on the hillsides and in the valley's has created very fast run-off and the watercourses cant handle it any more.

3 years ago a friend was here for lunch.
The phone rang to say "you should come home. there is a lady's body on your front lawn along with a lot of boulders and tree-branches".
Very tragic. The lady's house was built near a watercourse, and it collapsed into the flooded stream.
Anytime you see this it means trouble. Could be a nasty severe wx event looming this weekend for the Gulf Coast and SE US. Could even be some big tornadoes here in even FL especially C & N FL come Sunday Night.









Quoting Cotillion:


It could well be.

The supposed rationale for the file dump is curious. Trying to draw comparison between poverty and green energy investment. It could be done on purpose with trying to take a manufactured OWS type attitude to hide real motives. If it's really the views behind the person or people that did this, then it's rather peculiar. If poverty was really your main focus, there are far better targets. If you wanted to belittle climate change or climate scientists, there are probably more efficient ways of doing it.

Strange.

Good points.
I did not realise that new technologies would result in poverty for millions of people, as stated. This is a new slant?
I thought that the new technologies would result in fortunes being made by Evil Entrepeneurs. (unlike petroleum, apparently, where all the producers/refiners/dealers are seemingly Good Guys, and they make no profits at all).

I'm being sarcastic, in case anyone gets it wrong!

In any case, it's a silly argument for them to make.
But they will continue, no doubt.
Wow some stunning stadium affect going on with Kennith. If someone could post a good RGD shot of the eye would be much appreciated.

Another Hot sticky day here in FL. This November just doesn't want to end. I think it's been warmer in November than what we had in October.

I wouldn't be surprised to see the Storm Prediction Center to issue a moderate to high risk for some part of the SE US Saturday, Sunday, and Sunday Night.
EP132011 - Major Hurricane KENNETH


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery

1630 UTC

That is one good lookin' hurricane.
bye bye... ok, back to Kenneth..
Forgive debts, but hay, stay on topic please, this is a weather site.

The political blog is down the hall.

Quoting Seastep:


Not new. UN Poverty group (UNDP - United Nations Development Programme) has discussed just that and has had disagreements with IPCC, etc.

As for evil profits, this is a fun video on a deficit reduction plan:

hello!
i am back lol
the east pacific hurricane season is not over?? lol
go kenneth !
here in portugal it has been a wet november and a litle bit warm, in contrast to october that has been very warm and dry.
52. MTWX

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 895
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1200 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND CENTRAL ALABAMA
EASTERN MISSISSIPPI

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY AFTERNOON FROM NOON UNTIL 500 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 75 STATUTE
MILES NORTH AND SOUTH OF A LINE FROM 40 MILES NORTH NORTHWEST OF
PINE BELT MISSISSIPPI TO 35 MILES EAST NORTHEAST OF SELMA
ALABAMA. FOR A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE
ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER CENTRAL MS HAS INTENSIFIED
AND ACCELERATED DURING THE PAST HOUR...AND WILL TRACK ACROSS THE
WATCH AREA DURING THE NEXT FEW HOURS. STRONG WINDS ALOFT AND
MESOSCALE ORGANIZATION OF LINE WILL POSE A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS.
ALSO...ISOLATED DISCRETE CELLS FORMING AHEAD OF THE LINE MAY BECOME
SUPERCELLULAR WITH A RISK OF DAMAGING WINDS OR ISOLATED TORNADOES.
Ice today



Notice that while northern ice cap melts and shrinks, the southern one increases
Good news from South Central Texas. Received 1 inch of rain last 2 days total. 6 tenths last rain so things are looking up, ponds behind my house are still bone dry but my grass is looking better. Up to almost 11 inches for the year. Happy Thanksgiving early to all.
Here's the southern end of the line creeping into Nola later.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Here's the southern end of the line creeping into Nola later.



getting close to me
59. MTWX
Quoting StormTracker2K:
I wouldn't be surprised to see the Storm Prediction Center to issue a moderate to high risk for some part of the SE US Saturday, Sunday, and Sunday Night.

What Kool-aid are you drinkin'??
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good news from South Central Texas. Received 1 inch of rain last 2 days total. 6 tenths last rain so things are looking up, ponds behind my house are still bone dry but my grass is looking better. Up to almost 11 inches for the year. Happy Thanksgiving early to all.


good
Good to see some ice pack at the north pole, plenty of ice coverage and only going to expand south

Quoting Cotillion:


Regardless of whatever semantics you want to use to keep yourself happy, it is still an interesting story as it backs up from a similar one two years ago.

Makes you wonder about the security. Being done over once is embarrassing, but twice just seems negligent. Unless it was leaked on purpose.

The timing of the release certainly seems to be.


FYI:

It's simply another set of the same batch of emails stolen at the same time as "ClimateGate I" which was found to be wholly absent of any wrongdoing by multiple independant investigations.

There has been no further breach and the fact these are coming out now, right before the next big climate conference screams of a desperate agenda to force the debate... but with no new mud to sling.

Sad. really sad.

--------

Kenneth is a beauty!
Has not every EPAC system made it to at least CAT1 this season, with the exception of 1?
Looks like there's been another release of ClimateGate emails.

A sampling via hotair, and what is this about "the cause"? Is that scientific method?:

Thorne/MetO: Observations do not show rising temperatures throughout the tropical troposphere unless you accept one single study and approach and discount a wealth of others. This is just downright dangerous. We need to communicate the uncertainty and be honest. Phil, hopefully we can find time to discuss these further if necessary [...]

Carter: It seems that a few people have a very strong say, and no matter how much talking goes on beforehand, the big decisions are made at the eleventh hour by a select core group.

Wigley: Mike, The Figure you sent is very deceptive [...] there have been a number of dishonest presentations of model results by individual authors and by IPCC [...]

Bradley: I’m sure you agree–the Mann/Jones GRL paper was truly pathetic and should never have been published. I don’t want to be associated with that 2000 year “reconstruction”.

Mann: By the way, when is Tom C going to formally publish his roughly 1500 year reconstruction??? It would help the cause to be able to refer to that reconstruction as confirming Mann and Jones, etc.

Mann: They will (see below) allow us to provide some discussion of the synthetic example, referring to the J. Cimate paper (which should be finally accepted upon submission of the revised final draft), so that should help the cause a bit.

Mann: I gave up on Judith Curry a while ago. I don’t know what she think’s she’s doing, but its not helping the cause [...]
65. MTWX
Reports coming in from the Tornado Warned cell that moved through the greater Jackson area..

1715 UNK 3 NNE TERRY HINDS MS 3214 9029 ROOF DAMAGE TO A HOUSE ON WYNNDALE RD. (JAN)
1728 UNK JACKSON HINDS MS 3232 9021 TREE FELL ON HOUSE AND POWER LINES DOWN ON DONA LANE IN SOUTH JACKSON. (JAN)
1730 UNK 5 SSE PEARL RANKIN MS 3220 9007 NUMEROUS TREES DOWN. (JAN)
1738 UNK 2 SE BRANDON RANKIN MS 3226 8998 TREES DOWN ON LOUIS WILSON RD AND HIGHWAY 18 AND ALSO ONE POWER POLE. (JAN)
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Has not every EPAC system made it to at least CAT1 this season, with the exception of 1?


i reckon
Quoting Articuno:

Most likely slim.
But it's always good to keep a close eye.


I would say closer to none. Too far, too much cold water in between.
Quoting MTWX:

What Kool-aid are you drinkin'??


I know it's a Holiday Weekend but by looking the models it appears the south is in for a hair raising weekend. Expect Norman to start highlighting some areas tomorrow as the models are coming into better aggreement now. Sorry Folks!

This run of the Euro is slow but look at the wind profiles over Miss, Ala, La, Fla Panhandle.



Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Has not every EPAC system made it to at least CAT1 this season, with the exception of 1?

Greg couldn't quite cut the mustard.

Ps. Keep your eye on the severe today!
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Greg couldn't quite cut the mustard.


I have heard that, about Greg. ;-)
Quoting Barefootontherocks:

Greg couldn't quite cut the mustard.


Wiki says it was Fernanda, Greg made it to 85... but yeah.
72. MTWX
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I know it's a Holiday Weekend but by looking the models it appears the south is in for a hair raising weekend. Expect Norman to start highlighting some areas tomorrow as the models are coming into better aggreement now. Sorry Folks!

This run of the Euro is slow but look at the wind profiles over Miss, Ala, La, Fla Panhandle.




I see the possibility for a slight risk on Sunday, with the highest potential for damaging winds (much like the setup today). Just saying you stating SPC will likely issue a Moderate or High risk is a little out there. Kenneth has a better chance of hitting Hawaii than SPC issuing a High Risk.
Quoting Barefootontherocks:


Ps. Keep your eye on the severe today!


Got it.
Quoting HurrikanEB:


Wiki says it was Fernanda, Greg made it to 85... but yeah.


Sorry. I thought Greg was a tropical storm. Add: Must've peaked when I wasn't watching.:)

What's past is past. Today we have Kenneth, and some severe over the SE U.S.
Quoting Cotillion:
"Nate brings this year's tally of hurricanes to seven, one hurricane above average."

While I don't like the continual references to the long term average without qualification, it does bring up a good point. Despite the seeming saturation of tropical storms, seven hurricanes is only just below the post-95 AMO+ average of eight. Brings it into perspective a little bit.

Fresh round of hacked climate science emails leaked online.

Climategate II?


Nop. Bunch of stuff held back from the first hack. Blatant attempt to poison the water before upcoming conference.

22 November 2011 Last updated at 12:19 ET

'New release' of climate emails

By Richard Black Environment correspondent, BBC News
todays poteintial for severe weather aint what some thought it would be. the SPC mentioned that in todays outlook: "WIDESPREAD CLOUDS AHEAD OF THE CONVECTION...COUPLED WITH SLOWLY RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND WEAK LOW LEVEL LAPSE RATES SUGGEST THAT THE OVERALL SEVERE THREAT TODAY IS RATHER LIMITED. ALSO...THE MAIN LARGE SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER TROUGH IS SPREADING NORTHEASTWARDS INTO THE OH VALLEY AND AWAY FROM THE PRIMARY WARM SECTOR. ALL OF THESE ISSUES SUGGEST THAT... WHILE ISOLATED GUSTY/DAMAGING WIND REPORTS MAY OCCUR LATER TODAY WITH THE LINE OF STORMS...A MORE WIDESPREAD SEVERE EVENT IS NOT EXPECTED.  updated of course recently, not what i heard last night lol


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 2355
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1249 PM CST TUE NOV 22 2011

AREAS AFFECTED...NERN AL...NWRN GA...MIDDLE/ERN TN

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH UNLIKELY

VALID 221849Z - 222045Z


ONLY A MINIMAL SVR THREAT WILL EXIST THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS NERN
AL...NWRN GA...AND MIDDLE/ERN TN...AND THE ISSUANCE OF A WW IS
UNLIKELY.

A SSW-NNE-ORIENTED BAND OF WAA-INDUCED ELEVATED CONVECTION CONTINUES
ACROSS NERN AL INTO SRN PARTS OF MIDDLE TN AHEAD OF A SEWD-SURGING
OUTFLOW BOUNDARY THAT RECENTLY PASSED THROUGH HUNTSVILLE WHILE
ARCING SWWD TOWARD COLUMBUS MS. DESPITE SLY/SWLY FLOW OF 25-35 KT
JUST ABOVE THE SFC PER HUNTSVILLE VWP DATA YIELDING 0-1-KM SRH
VALUES AOA 250 M2/S2...ANY CONVECTION LIKELY WILL REMAIN ROOTED
ABOVE THE STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER RESULTING FROM WIDESPREAD CLOUD
COVERAGE. WHILE A BRIEF UPTICK IN CONVECTION MAY BE NOTED DURING THE
NEXT FEW HRS OWING TO THE INTERACTION OF THE OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WITH
LEADING CONVECTION/WAA ASCENT...AND AS THE SRN FRINGES OF STRONGER
DEEP-LAYER ASCENT BRUSH ACROSS THE REGION...BOUNDARY-LAYER
DESTABILIZATION NORTH OF TORNADO WATCH 895 WILL BE GREATLY LIMITED
BY THE LACK OF INSOLATION AND IMPEDED NWD BOUNDARY-LAYER MOISTURE
FLUX. STABILIZATION WILL BE FURTHER REINFORCED THROUGH THE AFTERNOON
BY AN APPROACHING AREA OF STRATIFORM PRECIP LEADING THE PRIMARY
SYNOPTIC COLD FRONT INVOF THE MS RIVER...WITH VERY LOW CHANCES FOR
DEVELOPMENT OF DEEP CONVECTION ALONG THIS COLD FRONT. THUS...WHILE
ONE OR TWO LEWP STRUCTURES CAPABLE OF PRODUCING GUSTY WINDS CANNOT
BE COMPLETELY RULED OUT IN ADVANCE OF THE STRATIFORM PRECIP
AREA...THE OVERALL SVR THREAT APPEARS MINIMAL. SVR PROBABILITIES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF TN MAY BE REDUCED IN THE UPCOMING 20Z-ISSUANCE OF
THE DAY-1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK.

..COHEN.. 11/22/2011
79. MTWX
Under a Severe Thunderstorm Warning now... Lets see what she does!
6.2 earthquake in Bolivia.
YAWN
Quoting Tazmanian:
YAWN

lol ikr i am sooooo bored and it stinks that its rainy out
This might get random thumbs up
84. MTWX
Quoting SPLbeater:
This might get random thumbs up

LOL! Nothing but a good bit of rain and some thunder. Tuscaloosa is looking to get some winds from the stronger storms though. The reports are pouring in from that strong band just to the south of me.
Quoting aspectre:
Okay, 'fess up. One of you called for a Cat.4 yesterday, and I wanna know who.


I did
Quoting MTWX:

LOL! Nothing but a good bit of rain and some thunder. Tuscaloosa is looking to get some winds from the stronger storms though. The reports are pouring in from that strong band just to the south of me.


i am bored. has ANYBODY noticed 99L lately?
I made a comment on KoritheMan's blog

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/KoritheMan/comme nt.html?entrynum=242
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:
I made a comment on KoritheMan's blog

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/KoritheMan/comme nt.html?entrynum=242


I nailed it!
Quoting SPLbeater:


i am bored. has ANYBODY noticed 99L lately?


hmm. didnt know i could quote myself xD
Quoting SPLbeater:


hmm. didnt know i could quote myself xD


I didnt either ROFL
you can ignore yourself to.. how funny.
Last frame looks like a real eye...

EP132011 - Major Hurricane KENNETH

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery/Loop

..click image for Loop

Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
you can ignore yourself to.. how funny.



u sure? all i see is quote and modify comment, lol. if i could ignore myself, i probably would for a test LOL
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
you can ignore yourself to.. how funny.

Action: Quote | Modify Comment
Nope.
yup you can, but you have to be very careful and able to get back to your ignore list to undo this action.
Quoting MTWX:

LOL! Nothing but a good bit of rain and some thunder. Tuscaloosa is looking to get some winds from the stronger storms though. The reports are pouring in from that strong band just to the south of me.

Severe wx reports for Nov 22, 2011

Happy Thanksgiving, One and All.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Has not every EPAC system made it to at least CAT1 this season, with the exception of 1?
hard to believe
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
yup you can, but you have to be very careful and able to get back to your ignore list to undo this action.

how? LOL
Quoting Articuno:

how? LOL



maybe we should make another account and talk trash to ourselves xD
Quoting SPLbeater:



maybe we should make another account and talk trash to ourselves xD

LOL
Quoting Articuno:

how? LOL


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/(username)/ignor euser.html

adding your username to the list. (Remember, this is not recommended) XD
Quoting SPLbeater:


i am bored. has ANYBODY noticed 99L lately?

99L is a nothing.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/(username)/ignor euser.html

adding your username to the list. (Remember, this is not recommended) XD

I would laugh if someone tried it and couldn't undo it.
XD
Quoting Articuno:

I would laugh if someone tried it and couldn't undo it.
XD


here i go. if you dont here from me for 24 hours, that means i couldnt undo it and are making SPLbeater2 lol
my comments are gone. SPLbeater has ignored himself
fun, huh. LOL
PHEW!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!i tried going to my blog to undo it, and saw this: "You have chosen to ignore this blog" so, using the link HadesGodWyvern had, i got to my list and got my name the heck off there!!LESSON LEARNED
yay! for lessons learned. =D
...CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE KENNETH FINALLY STOPS STRENGTHENING...

1:00 PM PST Tue Nov 22
Location: 12.6N 114.9W
Max sustained: 145 mph
Moving: W at 12 mph
Min pressure: 943 mb

if it was any other time of the year he probably would have gone straight for cat5.
Kenneth reached its peak this morning, and has now began to go on a downward trend.
I really don't like the practice of postmortem upgrading storms. I sometime wonder if it's being done to generate data to help correlate storm frequency and intensity with the global warming phenomenon. Probably just my paranoia, but I don't remember downgrading the status of any storms after the fact. Comments?
Quoting DrBobLade:
I really don't like the practice of postmortem upgrading storms. I sometime wonder if it's being done to generate data to help correlate storm frequency and intensity with the global warming phenomenon. Probably just my paranoia, but I don't remember downgrading the status of any storms after the fact. Comments?


My biggest question is how do they have more info in retrospect than they had at the time. I mean, excluding landfalling systems and systems that peaked in between advisories, wouldn't they still be working with the same data?

Edit: Katrina was down graded.. at landfall anyway.
So it looks like the atlantic got 19 named storms anyway.Lol.Impressive I may say.
Quoting washingtonian115:
So it looks like the atlantic got 19 named storms anyway.Lol.Impressive I may say.

The National Hurricane Center will be debating the October system that affected Florida next week...So we may get 20 named storms.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

The National Hurricane Center will be debating the October system that affected Florida next week...So we may get 20 named storms.
I can't belive we got 19 storms back-to-back from one season to another.Has that ever happened before?(Starts researching).
Quoting DrBobLade:
I really don't like the practice of postmortem upgrading storms. I sometime wonder if it's being done to generate data to help correlate storm frequency and intensity with the global warming phenomenon. Probably just my paranoia, but I don't remember downgrading the status of any storms after the fact. Comments?
Yeah that'd be your paranoia.

The reason storms are usually upgraded is because the NHC is conservative when it comes to classifying and analyzing storms. If something is on the border between TS/Cat1, they'll classify it as a TS and check back later to see. Main reason behind this is they don't want the public to lose their trust in them.

If anything, their conservative bias causes them to name fewer storms and hurricanes. Since they are considerably conservative during the season itself, when it comes to the post season analysis of storms they tend to upgrade more storms than downgrade them.
SNOW for tomorrow... yay!
Quoting HurrikanEB:


My biggest question is how do they have more info in retrospect than they had at the time. I mean, excluding landfalling systems and systems that peaked in between advisories, wouldn't they still be working with the same data?

Reams of data are gathered about any storm as it's going on. As conscientious as the folks at the NHC try to be, it's sometimes impossible to process all those data in real time. But once the season is over--or at least winding down--each storm's data is looked over at leisure. And since the NHC tends to err on the side of being conservative the majority of the time, more often than not they discover new data after the fact that necessitates an upgrade.
Quoting DrBobLade:
I really don't like the practice of postmortem upgrading storms. I sometime wonder if it's being done to generate data to help correlate storm frequency and intensity with the global warming phenomenon. Probably just my paranoia, but I don't remember downgrading the status of any storms after the fact. Comments?

There were a number of storms last year that weren't downgraded, but did have their maximum windspeed lowered in the post-season.

If those evil meteorologists were going to "generate data to help correlate storm frequency and intensity with the global warming phenomenon", why would they stop at 19 storms? Why not manufacture a 2005 every year?

As some have noted before, for every person who wonders whether the NHC is classifying storms to fulfill some mysterious GW mandate, there's someone else who wonders whether the NHC is failing to classify storms for opposite but equally nefarious reasons. Maybe both sides should get together and talk out their differences. ;-)
Heat induced thunderstorms across N FL. Folks it is very hot here in FL. Wishing for cooler weather here as this November is the warmest that I can remember here in the orlando area.

Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
Has not every EPAC system made it to at least CAT1 this season, with the exception of 1?


Exception of 3: Fernanda, TD Eight-E, and TD Twelve-E
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Heat induced thunderstorms across N FL. Folks it is very hot here in FL. Wishing for cooler weather here as this November is the warmest that I can remeber here in the orlando area.


How long have you lived there. So far Orlando is .4 degrees BELOW average for the month of November ...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=mlb

select preliminary monthly climate data to see for yourself
Does anybody have a complete list of the TCR changes so far? Like, how many mph the winds were upped or lowered, how higher or lower the pressure was made for a certain storm, etc., etc.
Quoting Dragod66:
SNOW for tomorrow... yay!
WHERE R U???.I've been getting silly little rain that's turned now into a pest.
NASA's TRMM Satellite Sees Deadly Tornadic Thunderstorms in Southeastern U.S.

TRMM's Precipitation Radar (PR) data was used to show the line of severe thunderstorms in 3-D. The line of storms were pushing through North and South Carolina on Nov. 16, 2011. Strong updrafts had pushed precipitation within some of these storms to heights of 15km (9.3 miles). Credit: SSAI/NASA, Hal Pierce

Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

How long have you lived there. So far Orlando is .4 degrees BELOW average for the month of November ...

http://www.nws.noaa.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=mlb

select preliminary monthly climate data to see for yourself


32 years which is my age. It has been hot here. Temps have been in the mid 80's many days but the difference is these 65 to 75 degree dewpoints which has helped kick in the heat index.

Quoting washingtonian115:
WHERE R U???.I've been getting silly little rain that's turned now into a pest.


Bedford Nova Scotia... up to a foot forcasted!
Quoting SPLbeater:
im bored again
This should help.Link
Quoting Dragod66:


Bedford Nova Scotia... up to a foot forcasted!
Awww man. :(.
Quoting washingtonian115:
This should help.Link


purty sure your not serious...thats an insult lol
Quoting SPLbeater:


purty sure your not serious...thats an insult lol
I'm sorry I'm turning red right now.Lol.Eh no I'm not being serious.I pulled up one of those quick links my daughter put on my computer.That's what I do when I'm bored at work sometimes.Lol.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


32 years which is my age. It has been hot here. Temps have been in the mid 80's many days but the difference is these 65 to 75 degree dewpoints which has helped kick in the heat index.


that's just what happens when you live on a peninsula, surrounded by 70+ degree water ....
Quoting hurricanejunky:
While you were sleeping...

According to AP’s Seth Borenstein, that’s “higher than the worst case scenario outlined by climate experts just four years ago.” He’s talking about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, which is, if anything, considered "conservative" in its projections of future catastrophe by many climate scientists. Put another way, we’re talking more greenhouse gases than have entered the Earth’s atmosphere in tens of millions of years.
Probably the most worrying quote on the article.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

According to AP’s Seth Borenstein, that’s “higher than the worst case scenario outlined by climate experts just four years ago.” He’s talking about the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC, which is, if anything, considered "conservative" in its projections of future catastrophe by many climate scientists. Put another way, we’re talking more greenhouse gases than have entered the Earth’s atmosphere in tens of millions of years.
Probably the most worrying quote on the article.


In other words, we are no longer asking if you want toast. We are asking, "What would like on your toast?".
Quoting Articuno:

99L is a nothing.
She wAS a something not to long ago probably a full grown subtropical storm, but 'CONSERVATISM" made them, wait a little longer to name her, winds were already 45mph, and the COC well define and in many instances over the main convection. Well, another " post season resurrection" shortly? Much likely, yes.
AH HA!!!!!!So you all thought I was gone and returned back to blogging.I get it.When I get on everybody vanishes.But when I'm off they return.Well I'm back.
Quoting STLweatherjunkie:

that's just what happens when you live on a peninsula, surrounded by 70+ degree water ....


I agree but the air is usually a lot drier come November. The humidity makes a huge difference.
Any thoughts?

Quoting washingtonian115:
AH HA!!!!!!So you all thought I was gone and returned back to blogging.I get it.When I get on everybody vanishes.But when I'm off they return.Well I'm back.



No comment? ;-)
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Any thoughts?



No. I have always been told that I am pretty thoughtless.
Quoting SPLbeater:
im bored again


Consider some Asian news... (new posible war scenario)

Flash-point: China issues warning to India on disputes in the South China Sea

Link

or what about some European news...

Perfect Storm the Most Likely Scenario; Is Europe Set to Declare a Chapter 11 in Early 2012?

Link
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:



No comment? ;-)
I've been trying to research what seasons have had 19 named storms back-to-back.So far no luck.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm sorry I'm turning red right now.Lol.Eh no I'm not being serious.I pulled up one of those quick links my daughter put on my computer.That's what I do when I'm bored at work sometimes.Lol.


lol....wait, red from laughter or somethin else? xD
well, it is GOOD to se the blog active again. frickin boring this time last week
Quoting SPLbeater:


lol....wait, red from laughter or somethin else? xD
Red from laughter.
From simply amazing to....not so much. The eye continues to become obscured and eyewall temperatures are warming. Additionally, the cloud pattern of the hurricane is becoming increasingly disorganized.

Not so sure it will be a Category 4 at the next update...

Quoting hurricanejunky:
While you were sleeping...


Nothing exciting. Same old same old. Could say that about every year. It is great for testing the theory.



Quoting washingtonian115:
Red from laughter.


oh.....so you sent me that link, and then started laughing at me..i get it now lol. and i could care less is the amazing thing LOL
EP132011 - Major Hurricane KENNETH

Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery/Loop
2130 UTC

..click image for loop

ZOOM is available, click on moving gif.

That eye shrinks down 70 % in the Loop
Cassini Chronicles Life of Saturn's Giant Storm

ScienceDaily (Nov. 21, 2011) - New images and animated movies from NASA's Cassini spacecraft chronicle the birth and evolution of the colossal storm that ravaged the northern face of Saturn for nearly a year.



Link
Ouch!

GFS puts this ULL right over NOLA.

This is something you would see in El-Nino year not La Nina.



Quoting Seastep:


Nothing exciting. Same old same old. Could say that about every year. It is great for testing the theory.





I agree. Since the onset of Industrial Revolution we have been seeing this rise in atmospheric CO2 levels. When do you want to start testing the theory that CO2 is a greenhouse gas?
DAMM!



Quoting StormTracker2K:
DAMM!




Language.....
Quoting StormTracker2K:


I must say that you are using your colors (no. not crayons. COLORS) better now. ;-)

Looks like there is a lot of weather related activity ahead.
well i was getting ready to say im bored
HOT SUMMER=COLD WINTER
COOL SUMMER=HOT WINTER

This summer was very hot there for we ought to have a colder winter
just like earlier:



this will get random thumbs up
Early to Rusty: .."DO NOT touch the TRIM"...

feast your eyes, 99L. YES, it IS something
171. skook
If anyone is interested in getting a free premium membership to wunderground, please visit my blog!


I guess even wunderground can't resist the black Friday madness.



Thanks for the great deal, and ad free weather!
Quoting Patrap:
Early to Rusty: .."DO NOT touch the TRIM"...


I never thought I would hear a Jarhead quote a squid!!!!!
A little video taken by an friend, from yesterday.....
His p[lace was not too badly damaged, this time.

Quoting pottery:
A little video taken by an friend, from yesterday.....
His p[lace was not too badly damaged, this time.



Are you still getting a lot of rain down there?
Quoting Grothar:


Are you still getting a lot of rain down there?

As one of the Newspapers said today, the floods yesterday were the result of "Brief, Persistent showers..."

Does that answer your question?
I'm still trying to make sense of it!

But yes, plenty rain, some showers have been very heavy. Fortunately, they have been pretty localised. But when it rains like this in the Valleys it can get serious.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
DAMM!





It almost looks like a gigantic hurricane complete with eye over SE Alabama....

DOOM!
Kenneth has been marginally annular all day..

Here's the last analysis..

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132011 KENNETH 11/22/11 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##


Quoting pottery:

As one of the Newspapers said today, the floods yesterday were the result of "Brief, Persistent showers..."

Does that answer your question?
I'm still trying to make sense of it!

But yes, plenty rain, some showers have been very heavy. Fortunately, they have been pretty localised. But when it rains like this in the Valleys it can get serious.


Makes perfect sense to me. Our weather reports says, "Partly rainy all day. Chance of rain near 100%
Going back over some of the ADT T#'s, I believe that Tropical Depression Ten was a tropical storm at one point. Going plainly off of ADT T#'s, the system was a 45 mph TS. We'll see what the NHC does....

011AUG26 140000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.8 3.0 3.2 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -2.72 -11.61 SHEAR N/A 14.83 34.15 FCST
2011AUG26 141500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.8 3.1 3.2 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -0.63 -11.04 SHEAR N/A 14.85 34.17 FCST
2011AUG26 143000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.8 2.1 1.0 0.5T/hour OFF OFF -1.59 -11.55 SHEAR N/A 14.87 34.19 FCST
2011AUG26 144500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.7 2.1 1.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -2.23 -10.92 SHEAR N/A 14.88 34.22 FCST
2011AUG26 150000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.7 2.2 1.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -4.53 -10.23 SHEAR N/A 14.90 34.20 FCST
2011AUG26 151500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.6 2.2 1.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -11.80 -9.60 SHEAR N/A 14.92 34.22 FCST
2011AUG26 153000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.6 2.2 1.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -18.00 -9.73 SHEAR N/A 14.93 34.24 FCST
2011AUG26 154500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.5 2.2 1.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -14.18 -9.29 SHEAR N/A 14.95 34.26 FCST
2011AUG26 160000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.5 2.3 1.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -11.44 -9.10 SHEAR N/A 14.96 34.28 FCST
2011AUG26 161500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.5 2.3 1.0 0.5T/hour ON OFF -9.83 -9.78 SHEAR N/A 14.98 34.30 FCST
2011AUG26 163000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.4 2.3 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -6.03 -9.53 SHEAR N/A 15.00 34.32 FCST
2011AUG26 164500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.3 2.2 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -8.26 -10.07 SHEAR N/A 15.01 34.34 FCST
2011AUG26 170000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.3 2.2 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -7.40 -9.91 SHEAR N/A 15.03 34.36 FCST
2011AUG26 171500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.2 2.1 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG 1.10 -10.51 SHEAR N/A 15.04 34.38 FCST
2011AUG26 173000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.1 2.1 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG 0.32 -10.44 SHEAR N/A 15.06 34.40 FCST
2011AUG26 174500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -3.04 -10.23 SHEAR N/A 15.08 34.42 FCST
2011AUG26 180000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -5.03 -9.96 SHEAR N/A 15.09 34.44 FCST
2011AUG26 181500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.1 2.0 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -8.78 -9.20 SHEAR N/A 15.11 34.46 FCST
2011AUG26 183000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.1 1.9 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -12.89 -8.34 SHEAR N/A 15.13 34.47 FCST
2011AUG26 184500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.1 1.8 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -10.54 -7.81 SHEAR N/A 15.14 34.49 FCST
2011AUG26 190000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.0 1.8 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -9.66 -7.16 SHEAR N/A 15.16 34.51 FCST
2011AUG26 191500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 2.0 1.7 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -7.40 -7.12 SHEAR N/A 15.18 34.53 FCST
2011AUG26 193000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -6.37 -7.15 SHEAR N/A 15.19 34.55 FCST
2011AUG26 194500 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 1.9 1.6 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -6.20 -7.23 SHEAR N/A 15.21 34.57 FCST
2011AUG26 200000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -3.86 -6.83 SHEAR N/A 15.23 34.59 FCST
2011AUG26 203000 2.8 1002.0/ +0.0 / 41.0 1.8 1.6 1.0 0.5T/hour ON FLG -0.15 -5.68 SHEAR N/A 15.26 34.63 FCST
Quoting Grothar:


Makes perfect sense to me. Our weather reports says, "Partly rainy all day. Chance of rain near 100%



I will tell you that we would Party in the rain all day even if it only rained for a part of the day! I will tell you it has been soooooo dry here ...... Oh, it is Partly and not Party. ........... never mind. ... sigh
Quoting Cotillion:


Regardless of whatever semantics you want to use to keep yourself happy, it is still an interesting story as it backs up from a similar one two years ago.

Makes you wonder about the security. Being done over once is embarrassing, but twice just seems negligent. Unless it was leaked on purpose.

The timing of the release certainly seems to be.


The emails were from the same crack, not a new one.
Kenneth down to 115 knots (still Cat 4):

EP, 13, 2011112300, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1153W, 115, 949, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 25, 20, 35, 1012, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,

...and 99L's pressure is down and winds are up a bit:

AL, 99, 2011112300, , BEST, 0, 313N, 447W, 40, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 220, 150, 0, 0,
Quoting Neapolitan:
EP, 13, 2011112300, , BEST, 0, 125N, 1153W, 115, 949, HU, 64, NEQ, 35, 25, 20, 35, 1012, 180, 20, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, KENNETH, D,

AL, 99, 2011112300, , BEST, 0, 313N, 447W, 40, 1004, LO, 34, NEQ, 220, 150, 0, 0,

Kenneth is definitely not a Category 4 hurricane any longer...Probably around 125 mph at this current time.

Oh well... :P
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Kenneth is definitely not a Category 4 hurricane any longer...Probably around 125 mph at this current time.

Oh well... :P

And it doesn't even look that strong. I'm sure they'll get the numbers right in the end...
Invest 99L may not be done after all. Winds have increased since the last update, and satellite imagery shows a more "Subtropical" look to it. It is frontal in nature right now, but don't be surprised if it breaks away. Additionally, all day long, SAB/TAFB have come back with "ST1.5".

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 99L may not be done after all. Winds have increased since the last update, and satellite imagery shows a more "Subtropical" look to it. It is frontal in nature right now, but don't be surprised if it breaks away. Additionally, all day long, SAB/TAFB have come back with "ST1.5".



Maybe this is the situation the models were depicting.
thanks for cutting off fpl sound. i was sick of the ad saying how wonderful fpl takes care of the people they raised their prices and that is all that matters.
18Z GFS develops a weak subtropical/tropical storm from the tail end of the front about to go through the Northeast over the next few days, but drops it by hour 180.

Link
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Invest 99L may not be done after all. Winds have increased since the last update, and satellite imagery shows a more "Subtropical" look to it. It is frontal in nature right now, but don't be surprised if it breaks away. Additionally, all day long, SAB/TAFB have come back with "ST1.5".



see, thats what i was trying to tell yal! :D
can ANYBODY get me a link to blank tracking chart for Indian ocean and SW pacific? any help will be hugely appreciated
Quoting SPLbeater:
can ANYBODY get me a link to blank tracking chart for Indian ocean and SW pacific? any help will be hugely appreciated


Indian Ocean
SW Pacific
SE pacific
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Any thoughts?



Looks like a moderate tropical storm now. :P
ADT T#'s range anywhere from 4.5 (90 mph) to 5.5 (120 mph).

Nothing supports Kenneth being a Category 4 hurricane.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
ADT T#'s range anywhere from 4.5 (90 mph) to 5.5 (120 mph).

Nothing supports Kenneth being a Category 4 hurricane.


I'd take the middle and say 5.0 (~105mph)
Just a little while ago, SAB came back with a T# of 5.0, which is 105 mph. TAFB on the other hand, came out with a T# of 6.0, which is 135 mph. The NHC will probably go right down the middle, at 5.5, which is 120 mph.

Or, they could go with ATCF, and go with 135 mph.
i almost fell down the stairs
Quoting SPLbeater:
i almost fell down the stairs

lol....why?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Just a little while ago, SAB came back with a T# of 5.0, which is 105 mph. TAFB on the other hand, came out with a T# of 6.0, which is 135 mph. The NHC will probably go right down the middle, at 5.5, which is 120 mph.

Or, they could go with ATCF, and go with 135 mph.
kenneth is not stronger than a cat 2. eyewall collapsing eye lost thats what happens when you hit just slightly cooler waters and wind shear. looks to me like a 90mph hurricane

Cat 4? Really? More like Cat 2 or 1.
Minimal Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale...at most.

Quoting cyclonekid:


Indian Ocean
SW Pacific
SE pacific


big thanks man. have this site on fvorites, but couldnt git the map to work. works here, not sure whats up with that lol. time to print!
Quoting SPLbeater:


big thanks man. have this site on fvorites, but couldnt git the map to work. works here, not sure whats up with that lol. time to print!
No problem! Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones are always interesting to track. It's the exact thing as looking at the Atlantic, just backwards. Awesome! :)
Quoting cyclonekid:
No problem! Southern Hemisphere tropical cyclones are always interesting to track. It's the exact thing as looking at the Atlantic, just backwards. Awesome! :)


was getting worried, i ddint have tracking chart and the season is about if not already started. guess November is the southern hemispheres' june?
Quoting SPLbeater:
i almost fell down the stairs

lol..
Quoting Articuno:

lol..


missed a step felt myself go backwards..but grabed the wall heh
Quoting SPLbeater:


was getting worried, i ddint have tracking chart and the season is about if not already started. guess November is the southern hemispheres' june?


More like May.
Quoting wxgeek723:


More like May.


ah. so, season start in december? either way, im behind my usual preparing days(early november, late october) for that basin
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Minimal Category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson hurricane scale...at most.



135mph, per latest advisory... minimal 4 :/

7:00 PM PST Tue Nov 22
Location: 12.5%uFFFDN 115.6%uFFFDW
Max sustained: 135 mph
Moving: W at 10 mph
Min pressure: 949 mb

".AND THIS
INTENSITY COULD BE A LITTLE GENEROUS."
Quoting HurrikanEB:


135mph, per latest advisory... minimal 4 :/

That's ridiculous.
Kenneth is Bushes Fault!

Always is and always will be!
135mph Kenneth?... category 4 in action :/

Edit: Image moved to next post to avoid repost.
Quoting HurrikanEB:
135mph Kenneth?... category 4 in action :/




blah...more like 115mph 3
Quoting trunkmonkey:
Kenneth is Bushes Fault!

Always is and always will be!


XD
Quoting SPLbeater:


blah...more like 115mph 3

Tell you one thing...

This:


is Not 10mph weaker than This:

Quoting HurrikanEB:


Tell you one thing... That is Not 10mph weaker than This:



AMEN to that. more like boundary Cat 2/3...went thru rapid intensification. time for rapid weakening!
218. j2008
Quoting HurrikanEB:


One thing's for sure...

This:


is Not 10mph weaker than This:


Maybe the NHC is thinking this is a really bad EWRC. LOL
Quoting HurrikanEB:

Tell you one thing...

This:


is Not 10mph weaker than This:

what's the first storm?
thunderstorms starting to pick up from the NWS Radar in Raleigh...gon be interestin night tonight, hopefully notin bad happens
Hmmm. . .I have a question

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.2N 89.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A DISTURBED AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA. THIS AREA IS ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EQUATORIAL BUFFER CELL IN SURFACE ANALYSIS.
UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IS LOCATED UNDER A SMALL POCKET OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE 29-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVELY BUILDING THIS
CIRCULATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

What is an Equatorial Buffer Cell?
Quoting cyclonekid:
Hmmm. . .I have a question

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.2N 89.5E,
APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA. ANIMATED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY REVEALED A DISTURBED AREA OF CYCLONIC CIRCULATION
TO THE EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SRI LANKA. THIS AREA IS ON THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EQUATORIAL BUFFER CELL IN SURFACE ANALYSIS.
UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THE AREA IS LOCATED UNDER A SMALL POCKET OF
UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE, APPROXIMATELY 10 DEGREES SOUTH OF A RIDGE
AXIS. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THIS AREA ARE 29-30 DEGREES
CELSIUS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BEEN AGGRESSIVELY BUILDING THIS
CIRCULATION INTO A TROPICAL STORM OVER THE NEXT 48-60 HOURS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS LOW.

What is an Equatorial Buffer Cell?


If I'm not mistaken, they are equatorial zones which separate the tropical easterlies and the monsoonal westerlies.
Quoting interstatelover7165:
what's the first storm?

Same storm -- The first image is Kenneth earlier in the day, when it had peak winds of 145 mph.


LOOKS like Bank of America is in serious trouble.....


NEW YORK (CNNMoney) -- It's time for Bank of America to start wrestling with some existential questions.
The embattled financial institution's share price, already down 59% this year, hovered near its 2-year-low of $5.13 on a report in The Wall Street Journal that it was having difficulty meeting US financial regulatory requirements.
Quoting HurrikanEB:

Tell you one thing...

This:


is Not 10mph weaker than This:




that is not a cat 4 at lest not any more are hurricane is weaking and fast it could be a TS by wed AM and poof by thursday AM mid day if this rate of weaking keeps up
i feel like a big boy now lol. i just found 5-10 day satellite and 850mb vorticity loops. also found ADT , and all the stuff i had looked at just from fellow bloggers. YAY I FOUND IT!! LOL
so, here it what i find for Kenneth:

CI#/Pressure/Vmax
6.1/951.8mb/117.4kt

Raw T# Adj T# Final T#
4.4 5.5 5.6

Scene Type:UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

sorry if i am posting stuff yal already seen...still excited, LOL
night all. tell Kenneth he looks pathetic, lol
TRMM hasn't passed Kenneth i two days. Got 99L today.. A very high reaching storm for an invest.
ASCAT of 99L
Fresher oceansat that missed but check that 2nd broad surface circulation trying NE of 99L. Models have hinted at this.

And Katia's report is now complete! Boring Lee is next:

Hurricane Katia

August 29 - September 10

Katia was a Cape Verde hurricane which briefly reached Category 4 strength over the western Atlantic. It did not affect land.

Katia developed from a tropical wave which emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 27. The wave almost immediately began showing signs of curavture in the associated convection as it marched westward across the tropical Atlantic. The system became a tropical depression near 0000 UTC August 29 while located about 450 miles south of the southern Cape Verde Islands. The depression became a tropical storm near 0600 UTC August 30 while centered about about 550 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Katia is estimated to have become a hurricane near 0000 UTC September 1 while about 1200 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Katia was only briefly a hurricane, however, as westerly shear, associated with an unseasonably strong mid-tropospheric trough, impinged upon the cyclone. Based on satellite and scatterometer data, Katia is estimated to have weakened to a tropical storm near 1200 UTC September 1 while located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

The weakening was short-lived, however, and Katia regained hurricane strength around 1200 UTC September 2. Residual southwesterly shear prevented significant intensification as Katia passed north of the Leeward Islands. Although it is possible that Katia briefly weakened to a tropical storm again on September 3, satellite images were still fairly impressive, the pulsating nature of the convection notwithstanding, and any weakening that took place appears to have been too brief to be meaningful. Katia eventually overcame the shear and became a major hurricane near 1200 UTC September 5. At this time, the hurricane was centered approximately 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Katia continued to strengthen, reaching its peak intensity of 115 kt near 0000 UTC September 6 while centered roughly 465 miles south of Bermuda. The strengthening was short-lived, however, and Katia began to weaken almost immediately thereafter, with the previously well-defined eye disappearing around 0600 UTC. Katia dropped below major hurricane status near 1800 UTC. Katia continued to weaken as an amplifying trough over the western Atlantic inflicted southwesterly shear and dry air into the circulation. However, the large size of the circulation prevented this weakening from being rapid, and Katia would retain winds of hurricane force until dissipation on September 10.

Based on the satellite signature, Katia is estimated to have made the transition to an extratropical cyclone near 1200 UTC September 10 while centered about 350 miles east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Post-tropical Katia remained quite vigorous, eventually bringing hurricane force winds to the British Isles and portions of Scotland.
Quoting Walshy:



we cant see nothing
Quoting Walshy:




you have too up lode that too imshack if you post it like that you are this showing us a black box of nothing
RIP Kenneth!
Good to see you, though.
K
Quoting KoritheMan:
And Katia's report is now complete! Boring Lee is next:

Hurricane Katia

August 29 - September 10

Katia was a Cape Verde hurricane which briefly reached Category 4 strength over the western Atlantic. It did not affect land.

Katia developed from a tropical wave which emerged off the west coast of Africa on August 27. The wave almost immediately began showing signs of curavture in the associated convection as it marched westward across the tropical Atlantic. The system became a tropical depression near 0000 UTC August 29 while located about 450 miles south of the southern Cape Verde Islands. The depression became a tropical storm near 0600 UTC August 30 while centered about about 550 miles west-southwest of the southernmost Cape Verde Islands. Katia is estimated to have become a hurricane near 0000 UTC September 1 while about 1200 miles east of the Leeward Islands. Katia was only briefly a hurricane, however, as westerly shear, associated with an unseasonably strong mid-tropospheric trough, impinged upon the cyclone. Based on satellite and scatterometer data, Katia is estimated to have weakened to a tropical storm near 1200 UTC September 1 while located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands.

The weakening was short-lived, however, and Katia regained hurricane strength around 1200 UTC September 2. Residual southwesterly shear prevented significant intensification as Katia passed north of the Leeward Islands. Although it is possible that Katia briefly weakened to a tropical storm again on September 3, satellite images were still fairly impressive, the pulsating nature of the convection notwithstanding, and any weakening that took place appears to have been too brief to be meaningful. Katia eventually overcame the shear and became a major hurricane near 1200 UTC September 5. At this time, the hurricane was centered approximately 500 miles south-southeast of Bermuda. Katia continued to strengthen, reaching its peak intensity of 115 kt near 0000 UTC September 6 while centered roughly 465 miles south of Bermuda. The strengthening was short-lived, however, and Katia began to weaken almost immediately thereafter, with the previously well-defined eye disappearing around 0600 UTC. Katia dropped below major hurricane status near 1800 UTC. Katia continued to weaken as an amplifying trough over the western Atlantic inflicted southwesterly shear and dry air into the circulation. However, the large size of the circulation prevented this weakening from being rapid, and Katia would retain winds of hurricane force until dissipation on September 10.

Based on the satellite signature, Katia is estimated to have made the transition to an extratropical cyclone near 1200 UTC September 10 while centered about 350 miles east-southeast of Cape Race, Newfoundland. Post-tropical Katia remained quite vigorous, eventually bringing hurricane force winds to the British Isles and portions of Scotland.



yes. she was boring
Details:

After a long slow dawn, the Sun was rising above the horizon for one of the last times of the year today. Me and my girlfriend went out to say a last goodbye to the Sun and minutes after sunrise the dusk began, marking the onset of the polar night. Here in Tromsø the polar night period last from November 25 - January 17, but because of the surrounding mountains, the last day of Sun is "set" to November 22. Together with several other people who was out with to pay a last farewell to the Sun today, we say thank you for 2011 Sun, and welcome back in January. Nikon D3, AF-S Nikkor 14-24mm f/2.8 @ 14mm, 1/640 sec, f 13, ISO 200.






Quoting Tazmanian:
Details:

After a long slow dawn, the Sun was rising above the horizon for one of the last times of the year today. Me and my girlfriend went out to say a last goodbye to the Sun and minutes after sunrise the dusk began, marking the onset of the polar night. Here in Tromsø the polar night period last from November 25 - January 17, but because of the surrounding mountains, the last day of Sun is "set" to November 22. Together with several other people who was out with to pay a last farewell to the Sun today, we say thank you for 2011 Sun, and welcome back in January. Nikon D3, AF-S Nikkor 14-24mm f/2.8 @ 14mm, 1/640 sec, f 13, ISO 200.








I wouldn't be able to live in these conditions
Quoting Tazmanian:
Details:

After a long slow dawn, the Sun was rising above the horizon for one of the last times of the year today. Me and my girlfriend went out to say a last goodbye to the Sun and minutes after sunrise the dusk began, marking the onset of the polar night. Here in Tromsø the polar night period last from November 25 - January 17, but because of the surrounding mountains, the last day of Sun is "set" to November 22. Together with several other people who was out with to pay a last farewell to the Sun today, we say thank you for 2011 Sun, and welcome back in January. Nikon D3, AF-S Nikkor 14-24mm f/2.8 @ 14mm, 1/640 sec, f 13, ISO 200.








Hey, you're talking about where I lived.
Quoting trHUrrIXC5MMX:


I wouldn't be able to live in these conditions


It's not so bad, only if you work the "Night Shift" You can be at work for 3 months.
Quoting Grothar:


Hey, you're talking about where I lived.


Lived??
So for those wondering about this Sept. 2 storm, here you go (Java loop)
Link

If it was ever a tropical or even a subtropical storm, it was VERY short lived, around 12Z Sept. 2. For most of it's life (Aug 31st-Sept 3) it was a naked swirl embedded within a front and what must have been a 40kt jet stream!

Also, Kenneth's weakening is fascinating me. The outflow is taking all the convection and it is moving around the center in a clockwise fashion. So just by satellite appearance (ignoring the surface winds) it looks like a southern hemisphere Tropical Storm!
Quoting KoritheMan:
And Katia's report is now complete! Boring Lee is next.


Did you write the report?
I couldn't find it from the NHC, nor your blog.
OMG You killed Kenny! You *******

Stormy night across N FL and S GA.

99L is still subtropical according to SSD
23/1145 UTC 31.9N 39.7W ST1.5 99L
Cambridge University is now predicting 2015 as the year of the first Arctic sea ice free summer..
Kenneth 5:30 AM PST Nov. 23

CI#/ Pressure/ Vmax
5.1/ 972.3mb/ 92.4kt

Raw T# Adj T# Final T#
3.8 4.4 4.7

Kenneth is going POOF! As I said yesterday cold water wasn't that far away.

Partial pass of 99L by ASCAT this morning..

Quoting Skyepony:
Cambridge University is now predicting 2015 as the year of the first Arctic sea ice free summer..


i had read about a solar eclipse in 2017 too, heh :D
254. MTWX
Read somewhere this morning the GFS is bringing snow into the picture Monday for the SE!
Stormy WX for the SE US with a big time severe potential across N & C FL either Sunday night or Monday.

Quoting MTWX:
Read somewhere this morning the GFS is bringing snow into the picture Monday for the SE!


I don't know about that but I'm sure it's possible with such a strong ULL. We've seen this happen time & time again and sometimes these events can be huge wet snow makers on the NW side of the ULL.
well, the good thing is radar estimated my city picked up around just over a quarter inch of rain...and trust me, it looks it outside in the yard lol. puppy was slidin all over the place lol
Quoting Skyepony:
Partial pass of 99L by ASCAT this morning..



If it doesn't get named today I am willing to bet 99L will be classified as a subtropical storm in postseason analysis.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


If it doesn't get named today I am willing to bet 99L will be classified as a subtropical storm in postseason analysis.




%100 likey it wont get name today
.."Dont touch the TRIM"
Quoting Tazmanian:




%100 likey it wont get name today


Postseason it is then.
Question:
Can anyone add to the explanation of the wind phenomenon: Williwa?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Williwaw
Quoting CybrTeddy:

If it wasn't frontal...

Fascinating article from NYT that gives one hope as our climate changes! Link
records have not been around for long especially the epac happy turkey weekend to everyone
Guysgal:
I bookmarked that article for the folks here to read. We are discussing "Selective Logging" on 20 acres here. I ran a "Skidder" for a while and I don't want what I did then in "My Back Yard".
Quoting Guysgal:
Fascinating article from NYT that gives one hope as our climate changes! Link


The problem is, for Texas, we are running out of trees.
Williwaw

From Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

In meteorology, a williwaw is a sudden blast of wind descending from a mountainous coast to the sea. The word is of unknown origin, but was earliest used by British seamen in the 19th century. The usage appears for winds found in the Strait of Magellan, the Aleutian Islands and the coastal fjords of the Alaskan Panhandle, where the terms outflow wind and squamish wind are also used for the same phenomenon. On Greenland the word piteraq is used.

The williwaw results from the descent of cold, dense air from the snow and ice fields of coastal mountains in high latitudes, accelerated by the force of gravity. Thus the williwaw is considered a type of katabatic wind.
Hey, everybody! They moved the party to next door! New blog.
looky what i found xD

WTXS21 PGTW 060300
MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN 120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 16.9S 69.9E TO 17.5S 65.5E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DUES NOT JUSTIFY THE ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 060000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 17.0S 69.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.


well...#2 time 98S has done this, and if it develops it will go completely against the outlook i gave and the JTWC gave.