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Category 4 Ita Nearing Australia

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 10:32 PM GMT on April 10, 2014

Dangerous Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Ita is nearing landfall in Australia’s Queensland state. Maximum sustained winds estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center were 155 mph at 18 UTC on Thursday, just 1 mph below the threshold of Category 5 strength. The Australia’s Bureau of Meteorology estimated that Ita had a central pressure of 930 mb at 18 UTC. Satellite loops show a moderate-sized tropical cyclone surrounded by an intense eyewall with very cold cloud tops. Radar loops from Cairns, Australia show spiral bands from Ita are already bringing heavy rains to the coast. With moderate wind shear of 10 - 15 knots and ocean temperatures near 28°C, Ita should be able to maintain Category 4 strength until landfall occurs Friday evening local time in Australia. The center of Ita is likely to pass very close to Cooktown (population 2,400) as a major hurricane, and near Cairns (population 143,000) as a weakening Category 1 storm. Ita will likely be the strongest tropical cyclone to hit Queensland since Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Yasi hit on February 2, 2011. Yasi killed one person and did $3.6 billion in damage.


Figure 1. Visible satellite image of Ita taken at 21:32 UTC (5:32pm EDT) April 10, 2014. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

Ita passing close to location of world-record tropical cyclone high water mark
Storm surge is a huge concern from Ita, and the cyclone is passing just east of the location of the world record high water mark from a tropical cyclone: the 13 - 14.6 meters (43 - 48 feet) from Australia's March 5, 1899 Bathurst Bay Cyclone. That Category 5 storm was a monster, with sustained winds in excess of 175 mph, and a central pressure between 880 and 914 mb. Mahina killed at least 307 people, mostly on pearling ships, and was the deadliest cyclone in Australian history. The eyewitness account of Mahina's record storm surge was provided by Constable J. M. Kenny, who journeyed to Barrow Point on Bathurst Bay to investigate a crime on the day of the storm. While camped on a ridge 40 feet above sea level and 1/2 mile inland, Kenny's camp was inundated by a storm wave, reaching waist-deep. On nearby Flinders Island, fish and dolphins were found on top of 15 meter (49 foot) cliffs. However, an analysis by Nott and Hayne (2000) found no evidence of storm-deposited debris higher than 3 - 5 meters above mean sea level in the region. They also cited two computer storm surge simulations of the cyclone that were unable to generate a surge higher than three meters. Indeed, Bathurst Bay is not ideally situated to receive high storm surges. The Great Barrier Reef lies just 20 - 40 km offshore, and the ocean bottom near the bay is not shallow, but steeply sloped. Both of these factors should conspire to keep storm surges well below the record 13 - 14.6 meters reported. The authors concluded that the actual surge from the Bathurst Bay Cyclone may have been 3 - 5 meters. The observed inundation at 13 meters elevation, plus the observation of dolphins deposited at 15 meters above sea level could have been caused by high waves on top of the surge, they argue. Waves on top of the surge (called "wave run-up") can reach five times the wave height at the shore for steeply fronted coasts like at Bathurst Bay. Since waves in the Bathurst Bay Cyclone could easily have been 3 meters, 15 meters of wave run-up on top of the surge is quite feasible. Since wave run-up doesn't count as surge, the status of the 1899 Bathurst Bay Hurricane as the world record holder for storm surge is questionable. However, the event is certainly the world record holder for the high water mark set by a tropical cyclone's storm surge, an important category in its own right.


Figure 2. Satellite image of Bathurst Bay, Queensland Province, Australia. The record 43 - 48 foot storm surge wave occurred on Barrow Point, marked by an "x" on the map above. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 3. Track of the 1899 Bathurst Bay cyclone. Bathurst Bay is located at the point where the 914 mb pressure is listed. Image credit: Whittingham, 1958.

References:
Nott, J, N. Hayne, 2000: How high was the storm surge from Tropical Cyclone Mahina?", Australian Journal of Emergency Management, Autumn 2000.

Anonymous, 1899, The Outridge Report--The Pearling Disaster 1899: A Memorial", The Outridge Company, 1899

Whittingham, 1958, "The Bathurst Bay hurricane and associated storm surge", Australian Meteorological Magazine, No. 27, pp. 40-41. Scanned and put on-line courtesy of John McBride.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Dr. Masters!
Thanks, Dr. Masters. A dangerous cyclone for sure.
Thanks Dr. Masters!
I wonder if those storms in that area affect the Great Barrier Reef?

thanks Doc
Another beautiful day. 46/75 and low humidity. Dew point is 41 now. Should be gorgeous for the Blessing of the Fleet this weekend!
Outflow boundary
Thanks Dr. Masters.

Thanks Doc
Thanks Dr. Masters.
Thanks,Doc
Interesting feature in the Sw corner of picture. Quote if you agree or disagree.
The mid-April ECMWF ENSO plume got leaked out a little early. Nearly every member has at least a moderate El Nino.

Quoting 13. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The mid-April ECMWF ENSO plume got leaked out a little early. Nearly every member has at least a moderate El Nino.



Trend seems to be 3C. Damm!
12Z Euro literally drowns FL with insane rain amounts next week. It is important that people in FL really pay attention to local forecast as a big time dump of rain maybe heading our way as a upper trough cuts off in the Gulf.

Quoting 13. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The mid-April ECMWF ENSO plume got leaked out a little early. Nearly every member has at least a moderate El Nino.



In the words of George Takei... Oh myyy
Quoting 13. TropicalAnalystwx13:
The mid-April ECMWF ENSO plume got leaked out a little early. Nearly every member has at least a moderate El Nino.



Is not on their site yet.

Link
Quoting 16. VR46L:
Did anyone post this today Colorado state Hurricane season Prediction


Yeah 10 times
Quoting 18. Tropicsweatherpr:


Is not on their site yet.

Link

I did say it was leaked after all.
Speaking of computer storm surge simulation, I'm a bit skeptical of its accuracy when modeling a non-existent cyclone.

I've seen surge simulations, and honestly I feel they are often too conservative. There are surge simulations of worst case scenario surge in Tampa Bay with a category 4 hurricane. I'm inclined to believe that the surge levels could actually reach the attained simulation with a category 3, or even a 2. At the same time, its possible for surge simulations to over estimate for fast and small moving systems.

The problem with computer surge simulations, is that they can't take into account that every tropical cyclone will have unique structure. We might be able to simulate how a cyclone at a given angle and speed leads to a given amount of surge. But we cannot know what the structure of a potential cyclone to be. I personally think that surge models should assimilate data from actual large tropical cyclones like Katrina to generate worst case scenario surge events.

Maybe this does exist, but from what I've seen, the model hurricane is simply that, a model hurricane that never exists, maybe an average size of what we expect. However, the variable size and structure means surge will vary.


Now, surge modeling does do pretty well when we have an actual storm present, but I just don't think its particularly accurate when we do not have a system existing to model.

I could be wrong, but that's my take.
Quoting 16. VR46L:
Did anyone post this today Colorado state Hurricane season Prediction


I am surprised that Dr Masters didn't mentioned CSU forecast on blog. I suspect he will make one for that topic on Friday.
Talk about El-Nino was just on national news a little bit ago and even they are saying this could be the strongest El-Nino ever recorded.
Quoting 12. Haiyan2013:
Interesting feature in the Sw corner of picture. Quote if you agree or disagree.


Probably worth keeping an eye on even if not for an eye.

The barrier reef will be getting a lot of stiring up at the moment, even though it will have recived this kind of punishment a lot of times in history outside records.
Its the people on the coast I really feel for but they will have had plenty of warning in Austrailia.

Good post from Dr.Masters here.
Quoting 23. StormTrackerScott:
Talk about El-Nino was just on national news a little bit ago and even they are saying this could be the strongest El-Nino ever recorded.


Coño. Not good.
My guess is we end up at 2.5C just ahead of 1997
Quoting 25. Dakster:


Coño. Not good.


The talk was about how this El-nino could wipe out years of drought in Texas and California.
Quoting 15. StormTrackerScott:
12Z Euro literally drowns FL with insane rain amounts next week. It is important that people in FL really pay attention to local forecast as a big time dump of rain maybebe heading our way.



That's unusual for April isn't it?
Quoting 15. StormTrackerScott:
12Z Euro literally drowns FL with insane rain amounts next week. It is important that people in FL really pay attention to local forecast as a big time dump of rain maybebe heading our way.



Yeah it shows widespread 3 to 5 inches, which is pretty crazy for an April rain event. I wouldn't bank on it but I wouldn't write it off either. Other models aren't supporting that right now, and climatology doesn't either, given this I would just keep an eye on for now and see of the GFS changes.
Quoting 28. DonnieBwkGA:


That's unusual for April isn't it?


Yup. April is usually the "dry" month, with May bringing in the beginning of the rainy season.
Thanks Doc.Still don't know why people are cheering for a super el nino but thanks for the post.

I'll leave you all to your discussions.
Quoting 29. Jedkins01:


Yeah it shows widespread 3 to 5 inches, which is pretty crazy for an April rain event. I wouldn't bank on it but I wouldn't write it off either. Other models aren't supporting that right now, and climatology doesn't either, given this I would just keep an eye on for now and see of the GFS changes.


Weird the GFS ensembles have been showing this for days infact showing totals of 8 to 10". The ensembles that have been showinjg this are doing the samething the 12Z Euro is doing and that is cutting off an upper low off SW FL.
Quoting 28. DonnieBwkGA:


That's unusual for April isn't it?


Happened in April '97(interesting that it preceded a strong El Nino, but probably just coincidence) where I was living(just E of Tampa). We got 12 inches of rain in April, including 5 inches in one day, which is an insane departure from normal. I remember because the bridge I had to go over to get to my high school was inundated, so we got a day off.
Quoting 15. StormTrackerScott:
12Z Euro literally drowns FL with insane rain amounts next week. It is important that people in FL really pay attention to local forecast as a big time dump of rain maybebe heading our way.



Hmm thats over 10 days .... Florida well used to a few inches spaced out over a few days
Quoting 28. DonnieBwkGA:


That's unusual for April isn't it?


April is our driest time of year but I have seen in past El-Nino that the year leading to an El-Nino brings a wet spring and that has been the case so far.
Guess I'll have to wait until October to see a lunar eclipse. Very little chance of seeing it with the pattern setting up into next week for the extreme SE United States (Florida, to be specific). Huge shame, I've been planning to observe this event for months.
Quoting 33. TimSoCal:


Happened in April '97(interesting that it preceded a strong El Nino, but probably just coincidence) where I was living(just E of Tampa). We got 12 inches of rain in April, including 5 inches in one day, which is an insane departure from normal. I remember because the bridge I had to go over to get to my high school was inundated, so we got a day off.


I remember that as it was not being predicted by models. A freak event happened in april 1997 for sure. Tampa was literally under water.

Here's the artical from the orlando Sentinal

Heavy Storms Flood Tampa With About 5 Inches Of Rain
AROUND CENTRAL FLORIDA
April 27, 1997


BRADENTON %u2014 Thunderstorms dumped more than 5 inches of rain on Tampa and nearly that much on the St. Petersburg area Saturday, flooding some homes.

In Miami there was hail, uprooted trees and flooded canals.

The most serious flooding was in Manatee County, south of St. Petersburg. About 120 people were taken in at two shelters. The deluge in the Bradenton area followed several days of heavy rain.
Its looking like we won't be seeing drought again for a long time in Florida. a few years back it seemed like we were always struggling with drought, we haven't seen a real drought of any kind since then, and with El Nino likely, the rainy season may not end this summer...

Lake Okeechobee is already high for this time of year, much of that was due to drenching rains of 40 to 50 inches in some spots of interior South Florida in just a few months. South Florida water management will have to come up with a plan to keep it from flooding, as it may do so by the end of this year if El Nino gets as strong as it could.
Quoting 34. VR46L:


Hmm thats over 10 days .... Florida well used to a few inches spaced out over a few days


That's a 10 day total, but its referring mainly a single event next week over a couple days.
Quoting 36. CybrTeddy:
Guess I'll have to wait until October to see a lunar eclipse. Very little chance of seeing it with the pattern setting up into next week for the extreme SE United States (Florida, to be specific). Huge shame, I've been planning to observe this event for months.
When?
Quoting 33. TimSoCal:


Happened in April '97(interesting that it preceded a strong El Nino, but probably just coincidence) where I was living(just E of Tampa). We got 12 inches of rain in April, including 5 inches in one day, which is an insane departure from normal. I remember because the bridge I had to go over to get to my high school was inundated, so we got a day off.


Found it! I was little off on the amounts, but here's the record from TIA.
Quoting 40. Gearsts:
When?


Wednesday and maybe Thursday should be fine.
Quoting 37. StormTrackerScott:


I remember that as it was not being predicted by models. A freak event happened in april 1997 for sure. Tampa was literally under water.

Here's the artical from the orlando Sentinal

Heavy Storms Flood Tampa With About 5 Inches Of Rain
AROUND CENTRAL FLORIDA
April 27, 1997


BRADENTON %u2014 Thunderstorms dumped more than 5 inches of rain on Tampa and nearly that much on the St. Petersburg area Saturday, flooding some homes.

In Miami there was hail, uprooted trees and flooded canals.

The most serious flooding was in Manatee County, south of St. Petersburg. About 120 people were taken in at two shelters. The deluge in the Bradenton area followed several days of heavy rain.


Nice. Hopefully you guys don't get a repeat. My parents and sister still live in Brandon, lol.
Quoting 32. StormTrackerScott:


Weird the GFS ensembles have been showing this for days infact showing totals of 8 to 10". The ensembles that have been showinjg this are doing the samething the 12Z Euro is doing and that is cutting off an upper low off SW FL.


Cutoff lows in March through May affecting FL are pretty common during EL Nino events. Its possible model outputs are already being influenced by the signs of El Nino. Whether or not we will see this unsure. It will be interesting though, really heavy rains in a normally dry time of year are always welcome.
Quoting 40. Gearsts:
When?


The eclipse is on the morning of the 15th. No chance of observing it.
Typhoon 23P ITA

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 10 APR 2014 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 13:35:44 S Lon : 145:39:19 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 931.4mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.8 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Center Temp : -23.2C Cloud Region Temp : -70.5C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1006mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.9 degrees




Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km

Night IR to Day Viz ITA Loop

Thanks Dr Masters


STC Ita is slowing. Does this mean she is going to turn or make a prolonged landfall.






IDQ20023
Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Queensland
Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

Media: Transmitters serving the area between Cape Melville and Cooktown are
requested to USE the Standard Emergency Warning Signal before broadcasting the
following warning.

TOP PRIORITY FOR IMMEDIATE BROADCAST

TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 19
Issued at 8:58 am EST on Friday 11 April 2014

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Lockhart River to Innisfail
including Cooktown, Port Douglas and Cairns, and extending inland to areas
including Kalinga, Palmerville, Mareeba and Chillagoe.

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Innisfail to Cardwell, and
extending to adjacent inland areas.

At 9:00 am EST Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Category 5, was estimated to be
215 kilometres north northeast of Cooktown and
370 kilometres north of Cairns, and
moving south southwest at 8 kilometres per hour.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 5, poses a serious threat to communities
along the far north Queensland coast. It is expected to move in a general
south-southwest direction and make landfall between Cape Melville and Cooktown
this evening or tonight as a CATEGORY 5 Tropical Cyclone with VERY DESTRUCTIVE
WINDS to 300 kilometres per hour near the core and GALES extending out to 200
kilometres from the centre.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with wind gusts in excess of 125 kilometres per hour may
develop between Cape Melville and Cooktown from early this afternoon, extending
south to Cape Tribulation and possibly to Port Douglas tonight. GALES may
develop between Lockhart River and Cape Tribulation later this morning before
extending inland to Laura and Palmerville tonight. Gales may extend south to
Cairns and Innisfail and inland to Chillagoe overnight, and possibly to
Cardwell during Saturday.
The cyclone is expected to be weaken over land overnight, however, there
remains the possibility that Ita will track southwards close to the coast
tonight and maintain cyclone intensity for longer into Saturday. Should this
occur destructive winds with wind gusts to 150 kilometres per hour are possible
at Port Douglas and Cairns during Saturday.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation including Cooktown
are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the
coast later today. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will
be significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents
and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in
areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect
their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions
regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities.
Coastal residents between Cape Tribulation and Innisfail including Cairns
should monitor the situation in case the cyclone takes a more southerly track
than expected.

Very heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about
parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts today
and persist into the weekend.

People between Lockhart River and Innisfail and adjacent inland areas including
Laura, Kalinga, Palmerville, Mareeba and Chillagoe should immediately commence
or continue preparations, especially securing boats and property.
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

People between Innisfail and Cardwell and adjacent inland areas should consider
what action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases and listen
to the next advice at 10am EST.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services website (www.disaster.qld.gov.au)
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service (SES) on
132 500 (for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage).

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita at 9:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.6 degrees South 145.8 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 930 hectoPascals

The next advice will be issued by 10:00 am EST Friday 11 April.

Cooktown is in severe danger from Ita.
Quoting Jedkins01:


Yeah it shows widespread 3 to 5 inches, which is pretty crazy for an April rain event. I wouldn't bank on it but I wouldn't write it off either. Other models aren't supporting that right now, and climatology doesn't either, given this I would just keep an eye on for now and see of the GFS changes.

After getting 5.27" in two days this week, I'm ready to believe anything from a blizzard to a hurricane for next week. This has truly been the weirdest 16 months or so I've ever seen. I'm not smart enough to even pretend I understand about El Nino or predict anything about it. My only observation is that after watching the weather for about 55 years now, really strange changes in weather patterns precede the onset of a full-fledged El Nino. Our recent weather fits that kind of pattern.
Quoting 34. VR46L:



Hmm thats over 10 days .... Florida well used to a few inches spaced out over a few days



I'm on Marco Island this week--glad the rain is holding off until next week!

Jeff Masters
Quoting 47. Patrap:
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 10 km



What was the estimated radius of max winds for Wilma at its peak?
Quoting 51. JeffMasters:


I'm on Marco Island this week--glad the rain is holding off until next week!

Jeff Masters


Enjoy the warm weather Doc as you deserve it!
I think Dr. Masters comments should have a comment count included :)
Quoting 45. CybrTeddy:


The eclipse is on the morning of the 15th. No chance of observing it.


It will look like this.

Marco...
Quoting 55. Tropicsweatherpr:


It will look like this.



LOL
Quoting 57. Patrap:
Marco...


Pollo
Ita RainbowTop Loop



Quoting 59. StormTrackerScott:


Pollo
Loco
Quoting 62. DonnieBwkGA:
Loco


Motive
Noting:-
49. AussieStorm
The eye of this storm could easily go all the way over the coastal towns on its way back out to sea with that projection you posted here at 49!
Scott I was thinking of this And I'm hungry!
Quoting 58. StormTrackerScott:


LOL


Why the lol?

The Strongest core of winds or Eyewall is very small, 10-15 Nm across.


As tracked by IR, in the ADT estimate.
Quoting 68. Tropicsweatherpr:


Why the lol?



You showed him what it looks like as we are expecting thunderstorms Monday & Tuesday in FL so viewing of the Solar Eclipse doesn't look good.
Quoting 50. sar2401:

After getting 5.27" in two days this week, I'm ready to believe anything from a blizzard to a hurricane for next week. This has truly been the weirdest 16 months or so I've ever seen. I'm not smart enough to even pretend I understand about El Nino or predict anything about it. My only observation is that after watching the weather for about 55 years now, really strange changes in weather patterns precede the onset of a full-fledged El Nino. Our recent weather fits that kind of pattern.


Yeah weather is certainly getting weird, I would say overall Florida has had pretty typical weather over the past year, more so than the past few years, but I guess that can only last so long.

Then again, we haven't had a hurricane in a record long period, so I guess that is one weird thing happening in this state.

Weather does fluctuate dramatically, but weather is just getting weird around the world, which is different than just departure from average, which is just in fact, a statistical average anyway, not what one should necessarily expect.
Quoting 67. DonnieBwkGA:
Scott I was thinking of this And I'm hungry!


I grilled some burgers and I have a nice big Fosters to go with them.
Quoting 71. Jedkins01:


Yeah weather is certainly getting weird, I would say overall Florida has had pretty typical weather over the past year, more so than the past few years, but I guess that can only last so long.

Then again, we haven't had a hurricane in a record long period, so I guess that is one weird thing happening in this state.

Weather does fluctuate dramatically, but weather is just getting weird around the world, which is different than just departure from average, which is just in fact, a statistical average anyway, not what one should necessarily expect.


Lot more extremes lately from hot and cold across the World with more hot than cold.
Quoting 70. StormTrackerScott:


You showed him what it looks like as we are expecting thunderstorms Monday & Tuesday in FL so viewing of the Solar Eclipse doesn't look good.


I only posted how the moon will look during the maximum of eclipse anywhere it will be seen. Here I will have a spectacular view as good weather will prevail that time.

Thanks for the New Post Dr. Masters, Have a Nice Weekend.
El Nino Could Grow Into a Monster, New Data Show
By Eric Holthaus


The odds are increasing that an El Nino's in the works for 2014 and recent forecasts show it might be a big one.

As we learned from Chris Farley, El Nino's can boost the odds of extreme weather (droughts, typhoons, heat waves) across much of the planet. But the most important thing about El Nino's that it is predictable, sometimes six months to a year in advance.

That's an incredibly powerful tool, especially if you are one of the billions who live where El Nino ends to hit hardest Asia and the Americas. If current forecasts stay on track, El Nino might end up being the biggest global weather story of 2014.

The most commonly accepted definition of an El Nino's a persistent warming of the so-called Nino 3.4 region of the tropical Pacific Ocean south of Hawaii, lasting for at least five consecutive three-month "seasons". A recent reversal in the direction of the Pacific trade winds appears to have kicked off a warming trend during the last month or two. That was enough to prompt U.S. government forecasters to issue an El Nino watch last month.

Forecasters are increasingly confident in a particularly big El Nino this time around because, deep below the Pacific Ocean's surface, off-the-charts warm water is lurking:

We'll have to see how tornado activity responds next season, after the onset and peak of the upcoming El Nino. One of the main inhibitors for activity, at least in the Plains, has been the persistent drought. With an active subtropical jet, we should see this drought be erased pretty easily.

TC ITA

2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve

The same infrared imagery shown in the earth relative framework is displayed in a storm relative framework, with a 2km resolution and enhanced with the "BD Curve" which is useful for directly inferring intensity via the Dvorak Enhanced IR (EIR) technique. Scaling is provided by two lightly hatched circles around the center. The two circles have radii of 1 and 2 degrees latitude, respectively.

Quoting 31. washingtonian115:
Thanks Doc.Still don't know why people are cheering for a super el nino but thanks for the post.

I'll leave you all to your discussions.


Doesn't get much better than that. I really like the cherryblossoms.
Quoting 77. TropicalAnalystwx13:
We'll have to see how tornado activity responds next season, after the onset and peak of the upcoming El Nino. One of the main inhibitors for activity, at least in the Plains, has been the persistent drought. With an active subtropical jet, we should see this drought be erased pretty easily.



Southern Plains should do well rain wise but points north could go into a pretty significant drought. Fall thru next Spring should bring an abundance of tornado acrivity from Texas to FL however.
El Nino is boring.

It's a Scam to Tax us all.


All them El Nino scientist's are scamming everyone.

(for the Fed Grant Money)

The data is falsified.


: P

Quoting 81. Patrap:
El Nino is boring.

It's a Scam to Tax us all.


All them El Nino scientist's are scamming everyone.

(for the Fed Grant Money)

The data is falsified.


: P



Dammit Largo I thought the Ice Age was coming. J/K
blue jay in the tree
I think its pretty safe to say that 2015 will be the hottest year ever recorded across the World as Mother Nature is about to let out a big hot burp.

Quoting 59. StormTrackerScott:



Pollo


chicken (pollo), you mean Polo...
Quoting 85. PedleyCA:


chicken (pollo), you mean Polo...


Fosters must be kicking in. Yes, Polo
Quoting 85. PedleyCA:


chicken (pollo), you mean Polo...


arroz amarillo con pollo..mmmm mmm

do you have Pollo Tropical's out there Peds?
Dangerous Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Ita is nearing landfall in Australia%u2019s Queensland state. Maximum sustained winds estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center were 155 mph at 18 UTC on Thursday, just 1 mph below the threshold of Category 5 strength. The Australia%u2019s Bureau of Meteorology estimated that Ita had a central pressure of 930 mb at 18 UTC.


wasn't the scale changed to 157 mph for a cat 5 placing Ita 2 mph winds short of this intensity?
or was that change for the NHC area only?
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #20
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY FIVE (15U)
9:55 AM EST April 11 2014
================================

At 10:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Category Five (930 hPa) located at 13.7S 145.8E or 205 km north northeast of Cooktown and 360 km north of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 5, poses a serious threat to communities along the far north Queensland coast. It is expected to move in a general south southwest direction and make landfall between Cape Melville and Cooktown this evening or tonight as a CATEGORY 5 Tropical Cyclone with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS to 300 km/h near the core and GALES extending out to 200 km from the center.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with wind gusts in excess of 125 km/h may develop between Cape Melville and Cooktown during this afternoon, extending south to Cape Tribulation and possibly to Port Douglas tonight. GALES may develop between Cape Sidmouth and Cape Tribulation late this morning or early this afternoon before extending inland to Laura and Palmerville tonight. Gales may extend south to Cairns and Innisfail and inland to Chillagoe overnight, and possibly to Cardwell during Saturday. The cyclone is expected to be weaken over land overnight, however, there remains the possibility that Ita will track southwards close to the coast tonight and maintain cyclone intensity for longer into Saturday. Should this occur destructive winds with wind gusts to 150 km/h are possible at Port Douglas and Cairns during Saturday.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation including Cooktown are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast later today. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities. Coastal residents between Cape Tribulation and Innisfail including Cairns should monitor the situation in case the cyclone takes a more southerly track than expected.

Very heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts today and persist into the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===========================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Sidmouth to Innisfail including Cooktown, Port Douglas and Cairns, and extending inland to areas including Kalinga, Palmerville, Mareeba and Chillagoe

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Innisfail to Cardwell, and extending to adjacent inland areas

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Lockhart to Cape Sidmouth has been CANCELLED
Quoting 88. trHUrrIXC5MMX:
Dangerous Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Ita is nearing landfall in Australia%u2019s Queensland state. Maximum sustained winds estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center were 155 mph at 18 UTC on Thursday, just 1 mph below the threshold of Category 5 strength. The Australia%u2019s Bureau of Meteorology estimated that Ita had a central pressure of 930 mb at 18 UTC.


wasn't the scale changed to 157 mph for a cat 5 placing Ita 2 mph winds short of this intensity?
or was that change for the NHC area only?


i dont know... its 157 for Hurricanes. Anyways, the storm seems to weakening a good bit in the past 2-3 hours
Quoting 90. nwobilderburg:


i dont know... its 157 for Hurricanes. Anyways, the storm seems to weakening a good bit in the past 2-3 hours


He either needs to clean up that post or rewrite it. Lots of jibberish.
Quoting 91. StormTrackerScott:


He either needs to clean up that post or rewrite it. Lots of jibberish.


yeah maybe a bit
TC ITA
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery

This set up is very unusual for April. This is typically when severe weather season kicks off but notice how far south the southern branch is. With this set up in place you can bet that Tornado Alley is in for one heck of a slow severe weather season.

The Dvorak Image continues to degrade into a oval.



Quoting 93. Patrap:
TC ITA
Storm Relative 1 km Geostationary Visible Imagery



i cant believe we havent seen a storm like that since 2011 with Ophelia.
Quoting 87. indianrivguy:



arroz amarillo con pollo..mmmm mmm

do you have Pollo Tropical's out there Peds?


Oh No, I Googled it and the closest one is Addison Tx, and they don't deliver this far out...lol
Quoting 88. trHUrrIXC5MMX:

Dangerous Category 4 Tropical Cyclone Ita is nearing landfall in Australia%u2019s Queensland state. Maximum sustained winds estimated by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center were 155 mph at 18 UTC on Thursday, just 1 mph below the threshold of Category 5 strength. The Australia%u2019s Bureau of Meteorology estimated that Ita had a central pressure of 930 mb at 18 UTC.


wasn't the scale changed to 157 mph for a cat 5 placing Ita 2 mph winds short of this intensity?
or was that change for the NHC area only?


I think the Aussies have their own scale. I know they don't use the same terms and structure the NHC does.
Ita has probably weakened to about 120kts or so judging by the satellite.
Quoting 97. nwobilderburg:


i cant believe we havent seen a storm like that since 2011 with Ophelia.


Hurricane Issac and Sandy in 2012 waylayed over 100,000 Homes and Structures,if yer referring to the old outmoded SSS, as it's not a very good indicator of a impact at all.



Isaac as a Category 1 hurricane near the Louisiana
Coast on August 28, 2012
Formed August 21, 2012

Dissipated September 3, 2012

(Extratropical on September 1)
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
80 mph (130 km/h)
Lowest pressure 965 mbar (hPa); 28.5 inHg
Fatalities 34 direct, 7 indirect
Damage $2.39 billion (2012 USD)
Areas affected Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, The Bahamas, Southeastern United States (Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama)
Part of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season
Quoting 101. Patrap:


Hurricane Issac and Sandy in 2012 waylayed over 100,000 Homes and Structures,if yer referring to the old outmoded SSS, it not a very good indicator of a impact at all.



Isaac as a Category 1 hurricane near the Louisiana
Coast on August 28, 2012
Formed August 21, 2012

Dissipated September 3, 2012

(Extratropical on September 1)
Highest winds 1-minute sustained:
80 mph (130 km/h)
Lowest pressure 965 mbar (hPa); 28.5 inHg
Fatalities 34 direct, 7 indirect
Damage $2.39 billion (2012 USD)
Areas affected Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, Cuba, The Bahamas, Southeastern United States (Florida, Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi, and Alabama)
Part of the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season



i meant in the way it looked, and in windspeed. Dont forget about Irene, it caused 16 billion in damage, which is 8 times more than Isaac.
Well after the horrid 2011 tornado season I'm glad we haven't seen nothing rivaling it in the last few years.
Quoting 99. PedleyCA:


I think the Aussies have their own scale. I know they don't use the same terms and structure the NHC does.

no they don't. Ita is a cat 5 in the BOM scale NOT in ours. I just asked why he said the storm was 1 mph from the cat 5 threshold (referring to our scale here in the western hemisphere) but in fact the category 5 scale is now 157mph+ not 156

here is a look at the graphic I made about the worldwide cyclone wind scales
It doesent have to be a Cat 5, only a Tropical Storm or Hurricane that moves slowly can do a lot of damage.

TS Allison proved that as it is still the only Tropical Storm Name to have been retired.

Prepare for the impact, Have a plan, a evac destination and stay safe is my motto.
Quoting 103. washingtonian115:
Well after the horrid 2011 tornado season I'm glad we haven't seen nothing rivaling it in the last few years.
We won't see anything rivaling that year for a long, long time.
Quoting 94. StormTrackerScott:
This set up is very unusual for April. This is typically when severe weather season kicks off but notice how far south the southern branch is. With this set up in place you can bet that Tornado Alley is in for one heck of a slow severe weather season.



The NW flow isn't helping at all.


something flaring off the lower left limb
It be Ol Sunspot region 2010

EVE X-ray Image



Added 04/10/2014 @ 02:50 UTC

Around the Corner

One or more active regions, likely the return of old region 2010 and company, are about to begin their journey back onto the visible solar disk. The solar X-Rays are indicating C-Class activity while still behind the east limb. More updates in the days ahead.

Oz Cyclone Chasers website.. They are updating regularly...
Link
Quoting 94. StormTrackerScott:
This set up is very unusual for April. This is typically when severe weather season kicks off but notice how far south the southern branch is. With this set up in place you can bet that Tornado Alley is in for one heck of a slow severe weather season.



It'll probably kick in a lot faster in a week or two so I wouldn't make that bet yet. Big unbreakable death dome ridging from mid May on is a stronger supressor of severe weather.
Quoting 104. trHUrrIXC5MMX:


no they don't. Ita is a cat 5 in the BOM scale NOT in ours. I just asked why he said the storm was 1 mph from the cat 5 threshold (referring to our scale here in the western hemisphere) but in fact the category 5 scale is now 157mph+ not 156

here is a look at the graphic I made about the worldwide cyclone wind scales



Oh, right, I remember this graphic, very nice btw.
Going back up....

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita at 11:00 am EST:
.Centre located near...... 13.8 degrees South 145.7 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 15 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 8 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 295 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 5
.Central pressure......... 931 hectoPascals
Well.... interesting news headline


"Cooktown could be ‘wiped out’: Category 5 Cyclone Ita‘s destructive 300km/h winds heading for Queensland coast"


Link
Dvorak is going downward as well.

Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #21
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY FIVE (15U)
11:01 AM EST April 11 2014
================================

At 11:00 AM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Category Five (931 hPa) located at 13.8S 145.7E or 190 km north northeast of Cooktown and 345 km north of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 4 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
=================
25 NM from the center

Storm Force Winds
================
45 NM from the center

Gale Force Winds
=============
100 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
100 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
90 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.5/D1.0/24 HRS

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 5, poses a serious threat to communities along the far north Queensland coast. It is expected to move in a general south southwest direction and make landfall between Cape Melville and Cooktown this evening or tonight as a CATEGORY 5 Tropical Cyclone with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS to 300 km/hr near the core and GALES extending out to 200 km from the center.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with wind gusts in excess of 125 km/h may develop between Cape Melville and Cooktown during this afternoon, extending south to Cape Tribulation and possibly to Port Douglas tonight. GALES may develop between Cape Sidmouth and Cape Tribulation late this morning or early this afternoon before extending inland to Laura and Palmerville tonight. Gales may extend south to Cairns and Innisfail and inland to Chillagoe overnight, and possibly to Cardwell during Saturday.

The cyclone is expected to be weaken over land overnight, however, there remains the possibility that Ita will track southwards close to the coast tonight and maintain cyclone intensity for longer into Saturday. Should this occur destructive winds with wind gusts to 150 km/h are possible at Port Douglas and Cairns during Saturday.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation including Cooktown are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast later today. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities. Coastal residents between Cape Tribulation and Innisfail including Cairns should monitor the situation in case the cyclone takes a more southerly track than expected.

Very heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts today and persist into the weekend.

Forecast and Intensity
================
12 HRS 14.9S 145.2E - 115 knots (CAT 5)
24 HRS 16.1S 145.0E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS 18.7S 146.8E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)
72 HRS 21.3S 151.6E - 30 knots (Tropical Low)

Additional Information
==================
The Dvorak analysis of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita was based on an eye pattern with a black surround and an added 0.5 for a white surround [no width considerations] and an off white eye, giving a DT of 6.0. MET and PAT both give 6.0. FT based on a 3-hour averaged DT of 6.0. CI has been maintained at 6.5.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita is now within radar range and appears to be moving in a south southwesterly direction. The system is still exhibiting a well defined pin-hole eye surrounded by a compact and symmetric convective core. The current intensity analysis also appears to be consistent with ADT estimates.

Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita remains situated in an environment with 10-15 knots of east northeast vertical wind shear and sea surface temperatures greater than 28C CIMSS upper winds depict strong outflow to the south of the system, which should allow Ita to maintain its current intensity through to landfall.

Ita is being steered towards the south-southwest under the influence of a mid-level ridge extending across the central Coral Sea and over the Solomon Islands. This mid-level ridge is being gradually eroded to the south due to an approaching upper trough moving across eastern Australia. Latest computer model guidance now shows stronger agreement in having a track with landfall along the far north Queensland coast later today. The scenario of Ita being steered southwards off the coast, and thus causing a major impact at Cairns and Port Douglas is considered a low possibility, but one that cannot be completely ruled out.

Ita should weaken reasonably rapidly over rough terrain on Saturday, but is forecast to reemerge off the coast later on Sunday or Monday. Some of the computer models redevelop the system as it interacts with a mid-latitude trough and is steered to the southeast.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===========================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Sidmouth to Innisfail including Cooktown, Port Douglas and Cairns, and extending inland to areas including Kalinga, Palmerville, Mareeba and Chillagoe

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Innisfail to Cardwell, and extending to adjacent inland areas

The Cyclone WARNING for coastal areas from Lockhart to Cape Sidmouth has been CANCELLED
Quoting 115. Doppler22:
Well.... interesting news headline


"Cooktown could be ‘wiped out’: Category 5 Cyclone Ita‘s destructive 300km/h winds heading for Queensland coast"


Link


well Cooktown only has 2500 people, so it wouldnt be that hard to wipe out.
Well it looks like da season for hurricanes is going to be low
Predictions:9-12 named storms I disagree
Quoting 105. Patrap:
It doesent have to be a Cat 5, only a Tropical Storm or Hurricane that moves slowly can do a lot of damage.

TS Allison proved that as it is still the only Tropical Storm Name to have been retired.

Prepare for the impact, Have a plan, a evac destination and stay safe is my motto.
I don't think I've EVER seen it rain as hard as I saw with Allison, before or since. I've lived in Houston now since 1975 and I thought 1979's Claudette was as bad as it could be, but Allison was far beyond Claudette. Unrelenting and the flooding was ridiculous with Allison. I measured 35" storm total here on the NE side close to IAH (Kingwood area). And most of that was in a 24 hour time frame.
Carbon Dioxide Levels Just Hit Their Highest Point In 800,000 Years

BY KILEY KROH ON APRIL 9, 2014 AT 11:51 AM

The concentration of carbon dioxide, the greenhouse gas that drives climate change, hit 402 parts per million this week — the highest level recorded in at least 800,000 years.



The recordings came from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Association’s Mauna Loa Observatory in Hawaii, which marked another ominous milestone last May when the 400 ppm threshold was crossed for the first time in recorded history.

Carbon dioxide (CO2) levels spike every spring but this year the threshold was crossed in March, two months earlier than last year. In fact, it’s happening “at faster rates virtually every decade,” according to James Butler, Director of NOAA’s Global Monitoring Division, a trend that

“is consistent with rising fossil fuel emissions.”

400 ppm was long considered a very serious measurement but it isn’t the end — it’s just a marker on the road to ever-increasing carbon pollution levels, Butler explained in an interview on NOAA’s website.

“It is a milestone, marking the fact that humans have caused carbon dioxide concentrations to rise 120 ppm since pre-industrial times, with over 90 percent of that in the past century alone. We don’t know where the tipping points are.”

When asked if the 400 ppm will be reached even earlier next year, Butler responded simply, “Yes. Every year going forward for a long time.”

While atmospheric CO2 levels never approached 400 ppm in the 800,000 years of detailed records scientists have, there is evidence that the last time the Earth experienced such high concentrations was actually several million years ago. Writing about the 400 ppm recording last year, climatologist Peter Gleick pointed to UCLA research

“that suggested we would have to go back at least 15 million years to find carbon dioxide levels approaching today’s levels”

and another article in the journal Paleoceanography “on paleoclimatic records that suggest CO2 concentrations (at least in the Northern Hemisphere) may have been around 400 ppm between 2 and 4.6 million years ago.”

"Never in the history of the planet have humans altered the atmosphere as radically as we are doing so now."

But whether it’s 800,000 years ago or 15 million years ago, Gleick emphasizes that

“the more important point to remember is that never in the history of the planet have humans altered the atmosphere as radically as we are doing so now.”

And this uncharted territory is something humans will have to navigate for quite some time because once its emitted, carbon dioxide remains in the atmosphere. In fact, Andrew Freedman explains,

“a single molecule of carbon dioxide can remain aloft for hundreds of years, which means that the effects of today’s industrial activities will be felt for the next several centuries, if not thousands of years.”

I made a few additions to my ENSO chart, tried to incorporate the AMO & PDO into El Nino....
Quoting 122. Webberweather53:
I made a few additions to my ENSO chart, tried to incorporate the AMO & PDO into El Nino....
I see you finally joined Weather Underground :) Nice to see another poster from North Carolina. I'm Kyle on Twitter, btw...
Quoting 121. Patrap:
The Divine Warming Period is 100 years old.

: P

The Warming "Divine" Period
By: Patrap, 2:46 AM GMT on December 27, 2013


The simple truth is that their are too many people on this planet. The only thing thats gonna save the earth from becoming Venus is a plague that wipes out most of humanity, or a nuclear war.
There has been no change in intensity of STC Ita

Link
Typhoon 23P ITA

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.5
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 11 APR 2014 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 13:46:45 S Lon : 145:38:36 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 942.2mb/117.4kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.7 5.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 14 km

Center Temp : -1.7C Cloud Region Temp : -65.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 137km
- Environmental MSLP : 1008mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.2 degrees




ITA RainBowTOP Loop

The SST's fall off fast to the South, now.

Looks to be tracking almost due South those last frames.



Multi platform Tropical Cyclone Kinetic Energy and Intensity

From the Multi platform satellite wind analysis discussed above a flight level (~ 700 hPa) Kinetic Energy is calculated within 200km of the cyclone center. The calculated KE is then categorized (0-5) so that their probability distribution is identical to the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Intensity Scale (0-5). The KE is then plotted versus the maximum surface wind from these same wind analysis and provided every six hours. Tropical cyclones tend to grow as they weaken, but this is not always the case and large storms typically have larger values of KE and thus are more destructive when they affect land. This product allows the real-time monitoring of the potential destructive potential of a given storm and allows inter comparison with past events either produced on this web page or from actual flight level wind data. The methods for calculating and categorizing the KE as well as analyses of several past events are described in Maclay et al. (2008).
Evening all. Ita is pretty impressive, and looks like it may impact Cairns more than one might like. Will be interesting to see the final landfall location.
BTW, there's a bad script on this page...
El nino is on hold for now.
Impressive.

I tracked this storm before it was cool.

Quoting 123. Bluestorm5:
I see you finally joined Weather Underground :) Nice to see another poster from North Carolina. I'm Kyle on Twitter, btw...


Eric Webb is very good on the climate front.I am @windburst if you want to follow me.
Today's selection of articles about science, climate change, energy and the environment.



A run for his money: Tom Steyer is betting that campaigning on climate change can win elections. Is the verdant billionaire right?

The sorceress's apprentice: How a bacterium and an insect conspire to take over a plant

* Asgard's fire: Thorium, an element named after the Norse god of thunder, may soon contribute to the world's electricity supply


*** Darwin was right. Again.

*** Casting light on dark matter




Clean Power Funding Easier as Investors Seek Simplicity

It's Time for Africa's Green Revolution, Focused on Corn

UN set to warn countries over 'dash for gas'

Flies can manoeuvre like fighter jets

Plans to curb wind turbines onshore will push up electricity bills (UK)

Camels are frugal methane emitters



Ancient 'spider' images reveal eye-opening secrets

*** Rare fossilized embryos more than 500 million years old found

Sunlight generates hydrogen in new porous silicon

Water users can reduce risk of spreading invasive species


Conventional theories about Titanic disaster put on ice: Risk of icebergs higher now than in 1912

* Win-win situation: Growing crops on photovoltaic farms

!!! Global warming not taken seriously: World Bank's president Jim Yong Kim


!!! Fungal disease fatal to bats spreads to half of U.S.



U.S. Marines headed to Chad park to fight poaching

China finds nearly 2,000 firms in breach of anti-pollution rules

!!! Watch Proteins Do the Jitterbug Best article of the week!

*** The Moral: Aesop Knew Something About Crows Excellent pictures and video!

* Can carbon dioxide removal save the planet?

*** NASA Tests Supersonic Flying Saucer for Future Mars Missions
Not sure if anyone posted, Klotzbach and Gray issued their first numerical forecast for this hurricane season. 9 - 3 - 1, that's it. Main reason of course is due to predicted El Nino.

Link
Quoting 140. wxgeek723:
I tracked this storm before it was cool.



hipster
Quoting 144. Chucktown:
Not sure if anyone posted, Klotzbach and Gray issued their first numerical forecast for this hurricane season. 9 - 3 - 1, that's it. Main reason of course is due to predicted El Nino.

Link

Still better than 2013 if we get at least one major to track.
Quoting 134. Patrap:

That last frame, Yikes!
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Eric Webb is very good on the climate front.I am @windburst if you want to follow me.


@gsdavo1975 is mine.

BREAKING NEWS: There are unconfirmed reports that the black box from ‪#‎MH370‬ has been found. Prime Minister Tony Abbott will be holding a press conference at 1.45pm AEST(in 20 minutes)
Hi all, my name is Eric (webberweather on twitter if that rings any bells w/ anyone) I've been looking over this blog daily since 2009 & have become a frequent visitor to the site. I was convinced to join the bloggers this year thanks to Tropicsweatherpr & this rather historic El Nino event that's about to unfold in the Pacific. A little information about myself, I have harbored a vibrant passion for the weather since I was in 1st grade, when the teacher asked me the question "Why do April showers bring May Flowers" and it wasn't until I found this blog several years ago that my interest in the weather really started to take off exponentially. Now, I usually spend @ least 1-2 hours a night reading over & taking notes of various scientific papers, especially interested in Convectively Coupled Equatorial Waves (CCEW) and the roles they play in ENSO, the jet stream, & ultimately the mid-latitude patterns via upper level divergence & westerly wind ducts. This is probably my favorite place to come during the hurricane season as I take enjoyment out of everyone's opinion and have become quite familiar with the general increase in trolling, etc. that occurs w/ each season.
Now, onto business, I want to address this question that came across the blog yesterday about why El Ninos which begin in the MAM/AMJ tri-monthly period are generally more intense than those commencing closer to & beyond the northern hemisphere summer solstice (JAS, ASO, etc.).
From AlwaysThinkin
"Looking at the this it looks like on the time of year the El Nino starts seems to affect how strong it becomes. Is it a casual relationship or is there something to it?"


I have several reasons as to why I suspect this relationship exists. First & foremost and among the most obvious reasons is timing, simply having an El Nino begin to crank up in the MAM & AMJ tri-monthly period vs later in the year gives an advantage analogous to the old rationale of "the early bird gets the worm" per say. El ninos that simply have more time to work with have an increased opportunity to strengthen. The second reason stems from the MJO, which has significant geographic and seasonal preference & bias, and is usually asymmetrically centered about the equator, moving north & south w/ the Monsoon Circulations of the Indian & Western Pacific basins. However, its during the spring when the MJO & its associated upward/downward motion becomes relatively symmetric about the equator. This optimizes its ability to focus and implement certain coupled atmospheric-oceanic responses like WWBs in the wake of the mean MJO signal along the equator, where in these winds excite the equatorially-trapped oceanic "double" Kelvin Wave (doubled nature of the KW stems from change in Coriolis Forcing across the equator creating actually two waves, but its due to Ekman transport of water perpendicular to the winds on either side of the equator that push these two waves together into one solid Eq. Kelvin Wave). These Kelvin Waves, as we have seen w/ the amazing guests posts by Dr. Ventrice, that lead to the formation of El nino. Some other reasons I have for this include the changing SST gradient of the Equatorial Pacific in various times of the yr which seems to stem from natural seasonal changes in the atmospheric circulation pattern in response to changing axial tilt etc.
Pictures below courtesy NOAA ESRL

Pacific Mean Winter Sea Surface Temperatures


Pacific Mean Spring Sea Surface Temperatures


Pacific Mean Summer Sea Surface Temperatures

Pacific Mean Fall Sea Surface Temperatures


Now notice how out of all the pictures above which posses the same scaling, the spring SST gradient in the Pacific is weakest. Why is this important? If you think about "normal" conditions, where the trade winds blowing from the east pile warm water in the western Pacific region, thus leading to a oceanic circulation that promotes upwelling in the eastern Pacific & downwelling in the western Pacific. This is in tandem with regions of high & low pressure respectively, creating what is known as Bjerknes feedback. However, during the spring, when the SST gradient is naturally weakest, this leaves the Pacific most vulnerable to dramatic changes in the atmospheric/ocean pattern forcing like the MJO which has its influence on ENSO already invigorated by becoming generally equatorial symmetric during this time of the yr. Furthermore, the natural seasonal push of the ITCZ, trade winds, & overall pattern forcing northward across the globe consequently drives the southeasterly trade wind fetch coming off South America further north, thus directing more Peruvian upwelling towards the equator, strengthening the SST gradient. Additionally, the southern hemisphere is in their respective winter, thus the upwelled water emanating from South America is naturally colder, & this combines with seasonal changes of trade winds to increase the SST gradient across the Pacific. I'll use 850mb winds from NOAA ESRL to show this, considering this is the level of the atmosphere where the surface forces of friction acting on the wind become relatively negligible & still is able to exemplify the processes occurring within the lower troposphere.

850 mb mean Vector Wind MAM Pacific


850mb mean Vector Wind JJA Pacific


850mb mean Vector Wind SON Pacific

You should notice the northerly shift of the mid-latitude circulation west of the Chilean coast, this plays a large role in generating this natural SST gradient during the northern hemisphere summer & fall.

What I seem to find most intriguing though is looking @ the average MJO amplitude throughout the year & weighing it against the SST gradient, it becomes fairly evident that this decreased SST gradient in the Pacific is linked to MJO amplitude. Note how in JFM tri-monthly period the MJO is typically most active (although other peaks in activity do occur throughout the yr). I also think its quite fascinating how if you move the JFM tri-monthly MJO peak in amplitude ahead two-three months, the typical amount of time it takes an Equatorial Kelvin Wave moving somewhere in the vicinity of 2.5 m/s to across the Pacific, it seems to coincide very nicely w/ the typical greatest changes in ENSO & model struggles that occur during the spring. Just some food for thought..
@Webberweather53

Informative post. Thank you! I live in Malaysia we were just hit by one of the worst droughts in recent history. Is this relevant to this year's ENSO changes?
Quoting 86. StormTrackerScott:


Fosters must be kicking in. Yes, Polo


As long as you don't spell it with a 'b' at the front you are ok.
Quoting 142. Tropicsweatherpr:


Eric Webb is very good on the climate front.I am @windburst if you want to follow me.
I've follow Eric for few months now. Very knowledgeable and impressive for his age, that's for sure. I'm @KyleNoel15 on Twitter, although don't expect many weather tweets :)
Quoting 144. Chucktown:
Not sure if anyone posted, Klotzbach and Gray issued their first numerical forecast for this hurricane season. 9 - 3 - 1, that's it. Main reason of course is due to predicted El Nino.

Link


Thanks Chucktown. How are things out in Charleston these days?
Quoting 149. Webberweather53:

Welcome to the blog! After lurking for 4 cane seasons, I was exhilarated once I decided to join- though I am not a scientific person (;
Quoting 152. Bluestorm5:
I've follow Eric for few months now. Very knowledgeable and impressive for his age, that's for sure. I'm @KyleNoel15 on Twitter, although don't expect many weather tweets :)


My main focus is talking about tropical cyclones,Caribbean weather, I like to follow severe weather and sports mainly baseball and basketball.
Quoting 138. Gearsts:
El nino is on hold for now.

Yeah you got that right
Niño 1+2,3,3.4 and 4 is on the decline
Actually 3 out of 4 areas are rapidly or quickly declining
Which are
niño 1+2 rapidly now at -0.669
Niño 3 rapidly now at 0.066
Niño 3.4 quickly now at 0.343
Niño 4 not so fast now at 0.716
Great post webberweather! I've seen him around on other blogs and I can tell you he is very good.
Imo Ita looks to have weaken a little bit.
Quoting 157. StormTrackerScott:

Great post webberweather! I've seen him around on other blogs and I can tell you he is very good.
Bluestorm gave me a great recommendation for webberweather :)
This is one impressive push of the MJO that has just moved into the Pacific.

Quoting 150. MoltenIce:
@Webberweather53

Informative post. Thank you! I live in Malaysia we were just hit by one of the worst droughts in recent history. Is this relevant to this year's ENSO changes?


Certainly, its probably a signal of what's to come. In fact, in some of the scientific papers I'm currently in the process of dissecting I've noted how the MJO cycle length shortens under El Nino conditions, likely due to the drying of the usually wet the Maritime Continent Regions. Why is this important? The MJO eastward movement & speed through the tropics is reliant upon convection & although in El nino conditions you simply see a shifting of this upward motion further east in the Pacific, & due to SST which are usually quite insufficient in this area anyway, it can't make up for the loss of convection in the eastern hemisphere, thus we observe the aforementioned speeding up of the MJO. I've noted in my research in comparing the MJO amplitude in the January-May period preceding El Ninos vs La Ninas that although on the surface there appears to be little correlation between the two "quasi-oscillations", MJO behavior in advance of El Ninos tends to express more variation & "pulse-like" character. This may be due to a shut-down of eastern hemisphere convection that can project on the RMM (Real-Time Multivariate MJO) either @ very low amplitude or a fast moving, high amplitude MJO pulse when they do move through the Maritime Continent region, & this can lead to the observed downward dips that were occasionally evident in the analysis of MJO amplitude preceding El Ninos. In addition, I also seemed to note that @ first glance, many of the strong amplitude MJO events in the yrs preceding La Ninas (such as the 3-4 sigma event that came on the heels of the 1986-88 multi yr El Nino & preceded the formidable 1988-89 La Nina) tend to occur in the Maritime Continent, which makes sense given that an westward juxtaposition of the mean convective signal (in this case, the MJO) to the tropical Pacific would generate enhanced easterlies that support La Nina conditions.
In 1997/1998 El-Nino we had a very strong MJO that basically stayed put across the E-Pac and Caribbean. I remember picking up 14" rain that December in Orlando. It was very amazing to see as it rained nearly everyday in December. I've commented on this as well that a strong El-Nino will mean less of an MJO moving across the globe and infact we may see something like in 1997 where it stays over on our side for several months.
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Brisbane
Tropical Cyclone Advice #24
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY FIVE (15U)
1:57 PM EST April 11 2014
================================

At 2:00 PM EST, Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita, Category Five (931 hPa) located at 14.2S 145.6E or 145 km north northeast of Cooktown and 305 km north of Cairns has 10 minute sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 160 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 7 knots.

SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE ITA, CATEGORY 5, poses a serious threat to communities along the far north Queensland coast. It is expected to move in a general south southwest direction and make landfall between Cape Melville and Cooktown this evening or tonight as a CATEGORY 5 Tropical Cyclone with VERY DESTRUCTIVE WINDS to 300 km/h near the core and GALES extending out to 200 km from the center.

DESTRUCTIVE WINDS with wind gusts in excess of 125 km/h may develop between Cape Melville and Cooktown during this afternoon, extending south to Cape Tribulation and possibly to Port Douglas tonight. GALES are expected to develop between Cape Sidmouth and Cape Tribulation during this afternoon before extending inland to Laura and Palmerville tonight. Gales may extend south to Cairns and Innisfail and inland to Chillagoe overnight, and possibly to Cardwell during Saturday. The cyclone is expected to be weaken over land overnight, however, there remains the possibility that Ita will track southwards close to the coast tonight and maintain cyclone intensity for longer into Saturday. Should this occur destructive winds with wind gusts to 150 km/h are possible at Port Douglas and Cairns during Saturday.

Coastal residents between Cape Melville and Cape Tribulation including Cooktown are specifically warned of the dangerous storm tide as the cyclone crosses the coast later today. The sea is likely to rise steadily up to a level which will be significantly above the normal tide, with damaging waves, strong currents and flooding of low-lying areas extending some way inland. People living in areas likely to be affected by this flooding should take measures to protect their property as much as possible and be prepared to follow instructions regarding evacuation of the area if advised to do so by the authorities. Coastal residents between Cape Tribulation and Innisfail including Cairns should monitor the situation in case the cyclone takes a more southerly track than expected.

Very heavy rain, which may lead to flash flooding, is expected to develop about parts of the Peninsula and North Tropical Coast and Tablelands districts during this afternoon and persist into the weekend.

Tropical Cyclone Watches/Warnings
===========================

A Cyclone WARNING is current for coastal areas from Cape Sidmouth to Innisfail including Cooktown, Port Douglas and Cairns, and extending inland to areas including Kalinga, Palmerville, Mareeba and Chillagoe

A Cyclone WATCH is current for coastal areas from Innisfail to Cardwell, extending to adjacent inland areas
Thanks for all the kind words guys, I definitely feel welcome here. My last post for the night, in case you missed it, I showed a comparison between the current MJO forecasts & spring 1997.

The GFS looks fast as usual, ECMWF appears to be suffering from what is known as the "Barrier Effect" in the Maritime Continent region where it occasionally has a tendency to hold back the MJO too long over this region. This could be due to the fact that the MJO typically is in competition w/ the diurnal circulation (in fact, the upward MJO actually tends to suppress diurnal convection, whereas its more prominent in the downward MJO), the fact that the high terrain in the area may interfere w/ lower tropospheric convergence, & of course this large amount of land also gets in the way of oceanic evaporative processes that are considered to be one of the main drivers of the MJO itself. Thus, all these conditions & others that lay within the ECMWF itself may lay @ the heart of its slow bias w/ the MJO in the Maritime Continent.
I'm thinking right now back to that time I stayed up till like 2 in the morning to watch this "thing" make landfall over my very house.

I was skeptical. The "eyewall" being mostly yellow was so much weaker than the ripe red pop-up thunderstorms experienced here so often.

But it was a tropical cyclone, and as the "eyewall" starting closing in, I felt kind of apprehensive and didn't really know what was going to happen.

What I saw was just a glimpse of the terror experienced by so many in the history of tropical cyclones.

The event I experienced was a windstorm which impressed me more than any thunderstorm winds in both how sustained it was and the gusts on top of the sustained winds.

It is very humbling to think that if this entity only had a more conducive environment to organize further, it would have had the capability as being the exact same phenomena in storms like Andrew or Cyclone Tracy to cause pieces of wood to impale palm trees, hurl eighteen-foot-long steel and concrete tie beams with roofs still attached more than 150 feet, and rip roofs to shreds.

It finally hit home for real/firsthand that this is "serious stuff."
I'm going 18 10 6 for the E-Pac this year.

10 5 2 for the Atlantic
Interesting find here...Sun Sentinel article written in December 1991 discussing CSU's forecast for 1992. Funny reading it from the pre-Andrew perspective. Similar to how people are downplaying this year actually. Thought it'd be appropriate since everyone uses Andrew as a rebuttal to inactive season complacency.
Quoting 167. StormTrackerScott:
I'm going 18 10 6 for the E-Pac this year.

10 5 2 for the Atlantic

Pacific should definitely be very active, and I think that's very reasonable for the Atlantic as well.

Despite it most likely being an El Nino, I think AHS 2014 will at least feature something stronger than a category 1..
Quoting 169. opal92nwf:

Pacific should definitely be active, and I think that's very reasonable for the Atlantic as well.

Despite it most likely being an El Nino, I think AHS 2014 will at least feature something stronger than a category 1..


I agree I think one hurricane hits the US this year.
That is an interesting find Trent!
Quoting 168. wxgeek723:
Interesting find here...Sun Sentinel article written in December 1991 discussing CSU's forecast for 1992. Funny reading it from the pre-Andrew perspective. Similar to how people are downplaying this year actually. Thought it'd be appropriate since everyone uses Andrew as a rebuttal to inactive season complacency.

It is a very relevant analogue, and is another drastic example to keep in mind in preparing every year.

Not brushing aside your point though, but it still ends up to be true that...

They had no idea then, and we have no idea now.
El Niño-Southern Oscillation

There is strong year-to-year (interannual) variability in MJO activity, with long periods of strong activity followed by periods in which the oscillation is weak or absent. This interannual variability of the MJO is partly linked to the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In the Pacific, strong MJO activity is often observed 6 – 12 months prior to the onset of an El Niño episode, but is virtually absent during the maxima of some El Niño episodes, while MJO activity is typically greater during a La Niña episode. Strong events in the Madden–Julian oscillation over a series of months in the western Pacific can speed the development of an El Niño or La Niña but usually do not in themselves lead to the onset of a warm or cold ENSO event. However, observations suggest that the 1982-1983 El Niño developed rapidly during July 1982 in direct response to a Kelvin wave triggered by an MJO event during late May. Further, changes in the structure of the MJO with the seasonal cycle and ENSO might facilitate more substantial impacts of the MJO on ENSO. For example, the surface westerly winds associated with active MJO convection are stronger during advancement toward El Niño and the surface easterly winds associated with the suppressed convective phase are stronger during advancement toward La Nina. Globally, the inter annual variability of the MJO is most determined by atmospheric internal dynamics.
I'm not sure how likely it is for us to reach a double digit number of named storms given the predicted El Nino onset time and intensity. The three years that featured an ONI above 2C (Super El Nino)...1972, 1982, 1997...had 7 named storms...6 named storms...and 8 named storms, respectively. We'll have to see if conditions briefly become favorable enough for us to get a major hurricane; if they do, it'll be along the northern Gulf Coast or off the East Coast.

It's interesting to note that in every analog year as choose by CSU, there was at least one hurricane landfall along either the Texas or Louisiana coastlines.

My theory is that if there is an Atlantic basin hit this year, it'll be the Florida Panhandle/north-central Gulf Coast. Statistics say every nine to ten years for a direct hit, and growing up near Pensacola taught me the truth in that (Erin/Opal in '95, Ivan/Dennis in '04 and '05 respectively). They're due again, according to the "trend"...
Bookmark this page. Updates half hourly.

Coastal Weather Observations for Cape Flattery

11/02:00pm
Temp: 25.7C
Wind Direction:SSE
Speed in Knots: 35
Gusts: 50
hPa: 995.7

Quoting 166. opal92nwf:




It finally hit home for real/firsthand that this is "serious stuff."
Playin' with the big boys now! :)
Current MJO forecast


Thanks AussieStorm!

Quoting 174. TropicalAnalystwx13:
 if they do, it'll be along the northern Gulf Coast

It's interesting to note that in every analog year as choose by CSU, there was at least one hurricane landfall along either the Texas or Louisiana coastlines.

I would not be displeased with either of these outcomes. :)
You have to admit guys it was me who called this last November that Spring 2014 we will see a strong El-Nino take shape and most of you laughed and tried to shun me off the blog.
Quoting 175. GBguy88:
My theory is that if there is an Atlantic basin hit this year, it'll be the Florida Panhandle/north-central Gulf Coast. Statistics say every nine to ten years for a direct hit, and growing up near Pensacola taught me the truth in that (Erin/Opal in '95, Ivan/Dennis in '04 and '05 respectively). They're due again, according to the "trend"...

It's very interesting how even before '95 there was Elena (which came very close) and Kate in the Panhandle in 85, and even 1975 had Eloise, a strengthening Cat. 3 at landfall. (a largely forgotten storm)

Quoting 181. StormTrackerScott:
You have to admit guys it was me who called this last November that Spring 2014 we will see a strong El-Nino take shape and most of you laughed and tried to shun me off the blog.
I don't remember if I was one of them. But if I was, I'll give you your due credit now.
Quoting 183. KoritheMan:

I don't remember if I was one of them. But if I was, I'll give you your due credit now.


No it wasn't you. I think Cody gave me a few ribs though.

Quoting 184. StormTrackerScott:


No it wasn't you. I think Cody gave me a few ribs though.
It's okay, I've ribbed him more than once since then, and I'll gladly oblige in the future. :)
Quoting 182. opal92nwf:

It's very interesting how even before '95 there was Elena (which came very close) and Kate in the Panhandle, and even 1975 had Eloise, a strengthening Cat. 3 at landfall. (a largely forgotten storm)


Frederic as well, in 1979.
Quoting 186. GBguy88:


Frederic as well, in 1979.


David 1979
Quoting 186. GBguy88:


Frederic as well, in 1979.

Hurricane City: Ft. Walton Beach, Fla Storm History
'98, the year of the fires for FL
. Not looking forward to seeing that again.
Quoting 187. StormTrackerScott:


David 1979


David paralleled the Atlantic coast of Florida...I'm just referencing northern Gulf hits.
Quoting 188. opal92nwf:

Hurricane City: Ft. Walton Beach, Fla Storm History


Some of the information on that link is pretty inaccurate.
Geepy86 I got something for you in my blog. Comment #1643

Quoting 189. geepy86:
'98, the year of the fires for FL
. Not looking forward to seeing that again.
I would be interested to see if I could get smoke plumes in southeastern Louisiana from said hypothetical fires.

Seems entirely possible given the low-level ridging which dominates in the summer.
Quoting 189. geepy86:
'98, the year of the fires for FL
. Not looking forward to seeing that again.

Up here in the Panhandle, drought weakened pine trees were dying left and right from pine bark beetle. I imagine 1998 was during or leading into our dilemma here. A couple of years later when my current house was built in 2000, there was a nice longleaf pine tree in our backyard we wanted to keep when the lot was being cleared.

My grandfather (who was our realtor) however said this one was a goner. Upon closer examination, he could clearly see the signs of death. Literally you can hear beetles chewing inside an infected tree.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:
Geepy86 I got something for you in my blog. Comment #1643

Too funny, I have goats and sheep on my farm. Never had a geep.

Quoting 191. GBguy88:


Some of the information on that link is pretty inaccurate.

which ones?
Quoting 181. StormTrackerScott:
You have to admit guys it was me who called this last November that Spring 2014 we will see a strong El-Nino take shape and most of you laughed and tried to shun me off the blog.

<_<
Quoting KoritheMan:

I would be interested to see if I could get smoke plumes in southeastern Louisiana from said hypothetical fires.

Seems entirely possible given the low-level ridging which dominates in the summer.

http://www.orlandosentinel.com/multimedia/orl-199 8wildfires-pg,0,6789435.photogallery
Good evening guys! How is the weather in your respective areas?

Quoting 156. wunderkidcayman:

Yeah you got that right
Nio 1 2,3,3.4 and 4 is on the decline
Actually 3 out of 4 areas are rapidly or quickly declining
Which are
nio 1 2 rapidly now at -0.669
Nio 3 rapidly now at 0.066
Nio 3.4 quickly now at 0.343
Nio 4 not so fast now at 0.716


Hey cayman! An El Nino seems inevitable for 2014/2015. Look how impressive the eastern pacific warm pool is, the SOI is also hinting at EL Nino despite recent moderation.


Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values

Quoting 196. opal92nwf:

which ones?


Off the top of my head...Opal was never a Cat-5, she peaked as a high end Cat-4 in the northern Gulf before weakening rapidly to 115mph just prior to landfall, despite packing a Cat-4 surge. Another error I noticed was Erin in 1995...that storm made landfall as a marginal Cat-2, with 100mph winds in the northeastern eye wall. I could be wrong, but I feel like Elena was a low end Cat-3 at landfall, rather than a marginal/high end. Maybe I'm just splitting hairs.
Quoting 196. opal92nwf:

which ones?


Also Ivan...despite the highest recorded sustained winds being less than 100mph, I don't believe for a red second that they were any less than that in eye wall. I remember the roar, I remember the walls and windows bowing, I remember the roof tearing off (every house in town had substantial roof damage, some homes didn't have walls left standing)...those were not 80mph winds. Not by a long shot.
Quoting 199. nigel20:
Good evening guys! How is the weather in your respective areas?



Hey cayman! An El Nino seems inevitable for 2014/2015. Look how impressive the eastern pacific warm pool is, the SOI is also hinting at EL Nino despite recent moderation.


Recent (preliminary) Southern Oscillation Index (SOI) values


Yeah no doubt in that at all but for now (at this very moment) there is no El Niño we wait for it which would be around Fall time 2014 by that time no doubt will be a big understatement
It may become a big event after that time
Quoting 201. GBguy88:


Also Ivan...despite the highest recorded sustained winds being less than 100mph, I don't believe for a red second that they were any less than that in eye wall. I remember the roar, I remember the walls and windows bowing, I remember the roof tearing off (every house in town had substantial roof damage, some homes didn't have walls left standing)...those were not 80mph winds. Not by a long shot.

Oh Ivan was quite something in Cayman ;)
Quoting 203. wunderkidcayman:

Oh Ivan was quite something in Cayman ;)


I can only imagine, and videos don't do it justice.
Quoting 204. GBguy88:


I can only imagine, and videos don't do it justice.

95% of Cayman gone
Quoting 203. wunderkidcayman:

Oh Ivan was quite something in Cayman ;)

It was your worst TC, maybe your worst natural disaster?

Damage was more moderate in Jamaica, but damages were estimated at over US$ 400 million, i think damages were in excess of US$ 1.5 billion for The Cayman Islands.
nigel20 it is now 52.7 or 11.5 C, and will be 77 or 25 C this afternoon :)
Quoting 206. nigel20:

It was your worst TC, maybe your worst natural disaster?

Damage was more moderate in Jamaica, but damages were estimated at over US$ 400 million, i think damages were in excess of US$ 1.5 billion for The Cayman Islands.

Yep
Quoting 207. BaltimoreBrian:
nigel20 it is now 52.7 or 11.5 C, and will be 77 or 25 C this afternoon :)

Current temp in Kingston: 80 F (27 C), very humid as well. A cold front is just to our west, but it is stationary, very little moisture is present in the central and eastern Caribbean though.
Quoting 209. nigel20:

Current temp in Kingston: 80 F (27 C), very humid as well. A cold front is just to our west, but it is stationary, very little moisture is present in the central and eastern Caribbean though.

Umm nope sorry to correct you but it was a retrograding front now turned warm front that's now over the Cayman area moving NW
I don't see much evidence of a cold front in the western Caribbean, either. Sorry Nigel, gonna have to agree with kman on this one.

7.4 earthquake in Papua New Guinea
Bougainville
BOM have downgraded STC Ita to Category 4 cyclone

Details of Severe Tropical Cyclone Ita at 6:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 14.5 degrees South 145.4 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 15 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the south southwest at 12 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 275 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 4
.Central pressure......... 939 hectoPascals
Quoting nwobilderburg:
7.4 earthquake in Papua New Guinea
Bougainville

Downgraded to 7.1

Aftershock.
M6.7 - 81km SW of Panguna, Papua New Guinea
depth=50.6km (31.5mi)
Good morning folks!.................
a beautiful weekend coming up for us here..........
Quoting 165. Webberweather53:
Thanks for all the kind words guys, I definitely feel welcome here. My last post for the night, in case you missed it, I showed a comparison between the current MJO forecasts & spring 1997.

The GFS looks fast as usual, ECMWF appears to be suffering from what is known as the "Barrier Effect" in the Maritime Continent region where it occasionally has a tendency to hold back the MJO too long over this region. This could be due to the fact that the MJO typically is in competition w/ the diurnal circulation (in fact, the upward MJO actually tends to suppress diurnal convection, whereas its more prominent in the downward MJO), the fact that the high terrain in the area may interfere w/ lower tropospheric convergence, & of course this large amount of land also gets in the way of oceanic evaporative processes that are considered to be one of the main drivers of the MJO itself. Thus, all these conditions & others that lay within the ECMWF itself may lay @ the heart of its slow bias w/ the MJO in the Maritime Continent.
Interesting. If my memory is correct, we also experienced a drought around the 1997-1998 time period. It was also when temperatures once peaked at 39C.
Probably about 8pm in Australia now.

Looks like cyclone ITA s just about on landfall now.
According to the way it seems to be heading it could roll all the way down the coast for quite a way.

Quite a lot of towns in that area.
Bad time to hit the coast as it will be very dark and probably suffering power cuts soon, if not right now.
Quoting 218. PlazaRed:
Probably about 3am in Australia now.

Looks like cyclone ITA s just about on landfall now.
According to the way it seems to be heading it could roll all the way down the coast for quite a way.

Quite a lot of towns in that area.
Bad time to hit the coast as it will be very dark and probably suffering power cuts soon, if not right now.


8 pm AEST (Australian Eastern Standard Time) to be more precise!
Good morning.

The PDO continues to go up in positive territory in the latest update.See the data at my ENSO Blog.
Quoting 219. MoltenIce:


8 pm AEST (Australian Eastern Standard Time) to be more precise!

Thanks for correcting me on that one.
I was counting the wrong way round a bit like the direction of the winds in the cyclones!

Same problem but probably worse with the darkness though,as they have a longer night in front of them now.

Hopefully everybody is well protected and the cyclone passes without loss of life.
Quoting AussieStorm:


@gsdavo1975 is mine.

BREAKING NEWS: There are unconfirmed reports that the black box from ‪#‎MH370‬ has been found. Prime Minister Tony Abbott will be holding a press conference at 1.45pm AEST(in 20 minutes)

Good morning Aussie, if you're still around, and everyone else on the blog.

Unfortunately, it was just a news conference with the PM expressing "confidence" the black boxes had been found. Not sure what the point of that was, other than he felt he had to say something. I'm disappointed that the sonobouys haven't recorded a hit yet. I was hoping that, with enough of them, they'd get better triangulation on the signals. If the Ocean Shield's towed array doesn't get anything in the next 24 hours or so, I'm afraid the batteries likely have gone flat. :-(
Quoting LargoFl:
a beautiful weekend coming up for us here..........

Good morning, Largo. I have no idea why I'm up. :-) Looks like a nice weekend here as well, with our first temperatures above 80 since last November. Thunderstorms on Monday and, so far, the models are still in disagreement about severe potential. It looks like shear will be lacking, although there will be a bit more instability. As long as we don't get another 5 inches of rain, the ground should be able to handle the rain, since the rivers are starting to finally go below flood stage.
Quoting sar2401:

Good morning Aussie, if you're still around, and everyone else on the blog.

Unfortunately, it was just a news conference with the PM expressing "confidence" the black boxes had been found. Not sure what the point of that was, other than he felt he had to say something. I'm disappointed that the sonobouys haven't recorded a hit yet. I was hoping that, with enough of them, they'd get better triangulation on the signals. If the Ocean Shield's towed array doesn't get anything in the next 24 hours or so, I'm afraid the batteries likely have gone flat. :-(


Well, he was in China and yeah, I think he felt like he had to say something.

Good Morning..





226. VR46L
Good Morning Folks

Good To See You NCSTORM

Interesting stream of vapour coming in from the Pacific





STC Ita has made landfall just NW of Cape Flattery

Highest winds recorded at Cape Flattery so far have been 113km/h sustained and 159km/h gusts. Lowest MSLP was 962.6hPa
Link
Quoting 211. KoritheMan:
I don't see much evidence of a cold front in the western Caribbean, either. Sorry Nigel, gonna have to agree with kman on this one.

Morning all... this current front is making it feel more wintry in Nassau today than it did for much of this past winter... lol... currently only 72, with temps not expected to exceed 80 degrees today.... fun stuff :o)

Later, all.... enjoy Friday!
Looking like a early summer pattern next week across FL with afternoon thunderstorms everyday according to the 06Z GFS.


Landfalling Ita. (And hello, everybody).
Quoting 228. BahaHurican:
Morning all... this current front is making it feel more wintry in Nassau today than it did for much of this past winter... lol... currently only 72, with temps not expected to exceed 80 degrees today.... fun stuff :o)

Later, all.... enjoy Friday!


Enjoy as the weather turns hot and stormy across FL and the Bahamas next week. Looks like a surface trough is going to set up from SW to NE from the NW Caribbean and then across FL/Bahamas.
Seems like Ita weakened a bit before landfall which is good news. Hope everyone affected will be safe and no casualties will come from the storm.
The latest information on El Nino shows it to be stable below the threshold mark. it is very possible that there will be an MODIKI event rather than a full blown El Nino event that most are pundits are predicting for the summer. There is still more time to go before El Nino can be declared.
Quoting 233. stoormfury:
The latest information on El Nino shows it to be stable below the threshold mark. it is very possible that there will be an MODIKI event rather than a full blown El Nino event that most are pundits are predicting for the summer. There is still more time to go before El Nino can be declared.


Not with a record warm sub surface pool surfacing over the coming weeks. El-Nino even made National news last night as a record El-Nino is likely later this summer or fall. PDO is plus 97 right now that's just another indicator the El-Nino is just right around the corner.

Headline was something like this last night.

Why an El Nino is this year's extreme weather event to look out for

"Although the El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is currently neutral, surface and subsurface ocean temperatures have warmed considerably in recent weeks, consistent with a state of rapid transition," the bureau said. In the upcoming winter (May through July in the Southern Hemipshere), models predict those temperatures could rise to El Nino levels.

Quoting 222. sar2401:

Good morning Aussie, if you're still around, and everyone else on the blog.

Unfortunately, it was just a news conference with the PM expressing "confidence" the black boxes had been found. Not sure what the point of that was, other than he felt he had to say something. I'm disappointed that the sonobouys haven't recorded a hit yet. I was hoping that, with enough of them, they'd get better triangulation on the signals. If the Ocean Shield's towed array doesn't get anything in the next 24 hours or so, I'm afraid the batteries likely have gone flat. :-(
Keep this in mind: First, the aircraft hasn't even been located yet, they are just zeroing in on the "ping" right now. Zeroing in on the ping narrows the search area where the side scanning sonar will be used to map the sea floor and final location on the aircraft. After finding the aircraft with the side scanning sonar a robotic sub will be sent down to investigate and take pictures or send back live video(think finding the Titanic). Second, after finding the aircraft and determining it's condition (is it intact, mostly intact, in pieces, right side up, up side down, etc), they;ve got to get the FDR and CVR out of the aircraft. If we're lucky the aircraft will be upright and have settled on it's belly. The recorders are located above the aft galley ceiling just ahead of where the bottom edge of the vertical stabilizer joins the fuselage. They are going to have to cut a hole in the fuselage to gain access to the rack where the recorders are mounted. Bottom line, don't expect rapid progress on any of whats ahead in the recovery process. Wish them luck!
with 6 weeks to the official hurricane season,it would be very interesting to see if the environment were to react in a big way to the increasing surface and sub surface temperatures. this will be a true indication of what to expect this summer and fall
Quoting 236. stoormfury:
with 6 weeks to the official hurricane season,it would be very interesting to see if the environment were to react in a big way to the increasing surface and sub surface temperatures. this will be a true indication of what to expect this summer and fall


I agree, this sub surface pool is one of the warmest ever recorded. As a result models have responded and they are all showing atleast a moderate El-Nino.



Ita landfall confirmed.

The eye on radar.


RIP Ita.

The cherry blossom trees in my yard and around my neighborhood are in peak and some of the pedals are falling off.I guess I'll go to the tidal basin since the water and monuments do add to the beauty (The monuments were built to model Greek architecture).
Cooktown about to get STC Ita's eyewall.


Loop

Wind speeds are picking up. Link

At 9:49pm Ita's pressure at Cape Flattery was 962.3hPa lowest so far. Link

108mm of rain has fallen so far.
2 km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


Tropical Cyclone Ita Makes Landfall in Australia
Powerful Tropical Cyclone Ita (pronounced "EYE-tuh") made landfall in northeast Australia near Cape Flattery in the Queensland state late Friday night, local time (around 7 a.m. U.S. EDT

Ita made landfall with 10-minute average sustained winds around 120 mph, according to the Australia Bureau of Meteorology. This would equate to a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale, equivalent to a peak sustained wind averaged over a 1-minute period (U.S. standard) of 135 mph.

Damaging winds and storm surge flooding are likely near where the center of the small tropical cyclone moves inland.

Coastal communities in northeast Australia such as Cooktown, Port Douglas and Cairns will all continue to see impacts from Ita's center as it turns south near or inland from the coast into Saturday.



Cape Flattery measured a peak wind gust just shy of 99 mph at 9 p.m. local time Friday, and had already picked up over three inches of rain from Ita's outer rainbands and eyewall. As of late Friday night local time, heavy rainbands had wrapped as far south as Cairns.

Strong winds, heavy rain and flooding are also possible over interior sections of northeast Australia as Ita spins down over northeast Australia Saturday into Sunday. Bands of heavy rain will wrap into the coast as far south as Bowen and Hamilton well ahead of the center of circulation, raising the threat of rainfall flooding.

Tropical cyclones are not uncommon in Australia. The Australia Bureau of Meteorology says that the season typically runs from November through April.

In fact, this part of northeast Australia is thought to hold the world record for highest storm surge from the 1899 Bathurst Bay Cyclone.
Looking like a early summer pattern next week across FL with afternoon thunderstorms everyday according to the 06Z GFS.


i've got to ask.....how does a precip forecast...show afternoon thunderstorms?
249. VR46L
Quoting 246. hurricanes2018:


T


Your Avi ~ That's a great shot of the moon !
Quoting 248. ricderr:
Looking like a early summer pattern next week across FL with afternoon thunderstorms everyday according to the 06Z GFS.


i've got to ask.....how does a precip forecast...show afternoon thunderstorms?


Rainy patterns in FL seem to go hand n hand with the MJO and it appears the MJO is coming next week.

Quoting 248. ricderr:
Looking like a early summer pattern next week across FL with afternoon thunderstorms everyday according to the 06Z GFS.


i've got to ask.....how does a precip forecast...show afternoon thunderstorms?


I tried to spare everybody by not posting images from each day but since you asked for it well here you go.

Monday chance of rain


Tuesday Thunderstorms likely


Wednesday Good Chance of thunderstorms.


Thursday Chance of Thunderstorms


Friday Rain and Thunderstorms likely


thanx scott...so....the gfs shows precip...not a time frame of when the precip will occur...i/e afternoon or morning.... except at some point or points during that time frame.....nor the presence of lightning
From WeatherBELL

Joe Bastardi's early 2014 Seasonal Atlantic Predictions




Commentary

In summary:

Named Storms: 8-10

Hurricanes: 3-5

Major Hurricanes: 1-2

ACE: 75-90% of normal

The deep tropics (south of 22.5°N) will have less to much-less than normal activity this year. Farther north, the very warm water off of the Eastern Seaboard is a concern, along with the oncoming El Niño conditions. There have been plenty of El Niño years with high impact seasons for the U.S. coast: 1957, 1965, 1969, 1976, 1983 (fading but still there), 1991, 1992, 2002, and 2004 are examples. The pattern favors stronger storms (relative to normals) in-close to the U.S. rather than in the deep tropics.

The ECMWF model is in strong agreement with this. Last year, it actually rang a warning bell with its forecast for near normal activity (it also did in 2012, but wasn't too accurate that year). This year, the ECMWF March tropical forecast is lower than those years.
What is different is that the ECMWF model has a forecast for higher than average activity near the East Coast of the U.S.! We have been in awe at the lack of activity near the East Coast over the last 20 years, given the similar cycle to the 1950s. While Irene and Sandy have drawn significant attention, they were nothing compared to the meteorological mayhem of the 1950s or the intensity of 1938 and 1944. There is nothing to prohibit another Sandy-type hit from the southeast or three storms up the East Coast in one year despite a relatively low number of named storms in a season. The benchmark year on the eastern seaboard, 1954, had well below normal tropical activity in the deep tropics, with only Hazel being a strong storm south of 20°N, so there is strong historical support for the ECMWF's idea.

The combination of dry air, what looks to be a relatively colder AMO index, a poor setup for the Indian Ocean wave train, and the oncoming El Niño all argue against higher than normal frequency in the deep tropics. We think this a challenging year, one that has a greater threat of higher intensity storms closer to the coast, and, where like 2012, warnings will frequently be issued with the first official NHC advisory.
Quoting 252. ricderr:
thanx scott...so....the gfs shows precip...not a time frame of when the precip will occur...i/e afternoon or morning.... except at some point or points during that time frame.....nor the presence of lightning


daytime heating this time of year typically yields thunderstorms if we have enough instability (ie cool air aloft). If you lived here then you would know. Now if this were January then we would be looking at a mostly strataform rain which normally occurs during the cooler months.

Also during next week the PWAT's look to be in the 1.5" to 1.9" range. So more than enough moisture to get the atmosphere cooking.

If you need that data then let me know as well.
Looks like a train is going to hit us all week next week. This outta be fun. Please do not let this year be like 2004. I hated 2004.
TOTAL LUNAR ECLIPSE: Mark your calendar. On April 15th, there will be a total eclipse of the Moon visible from Australia, New Zealand, and all of the Americas. The action begins on Tuesday at 2 AM Eastern time. Get the full story and a video from Science@NASA. I believe it is also a full moon
Quoting 255. Michfan:
Looks like a train is going to hit us all week next week. This outta be fun. Please do not let this year be like 2004. I hated 2004.


It doesn't appear we will see a set up that we did in 2004 as El-Nino will likely be strong by the peak of hurricane season. I can tell you this you don't want to vacation in Acapulco or even Cabo this summer as the E-Pac will likely be a hot bed for activity.
daytime heating this time of year typically yields thunderstorms if we have enough instability (ie cool air aloft). If you lived here then you would know. Now if this were January then we would be looking at a mostly strataform rain which normally occurs during the cooler months.

Also during next week the PWAT's look to be in the 1.5" to 1.9" range. So more than enough moisture to get the atmosphere cooking.

If you need that data then let me know as well.



exactly scott...as that is the pattern for florida occasionally during the spring and especially during the summer months...but the gfs doesn't detail that...that's all scott.....
We can all pull up the Local NWS Forecast Disco as it's on every Local Page.

Scientific Forecaster Discussion --- MOS Weather Graph
Quoting 259. Patrap:
We can all pull up the Local NWS Forecast as it's on every Local Page.

Scientific Forecaster


Yep dem same Scientific Forecaster's that were saying Nola would get as much as 8" of rain. LOL!! I will be in your neck of the woods in August for a convention.
Yep dem same Scientific Forecaster's that were saying Nola would get as much as 8" of rain. LOL!! I will be in your neck of the woods in August for a convection.


strip clubs?.....gonna make it rain?
I doubt you will find a better group of Mets than the Slidell, La. office.

Plus, I live in a State that has weather, not A wet or dry Season every Odd/even week.

So Plttttttttttt.

: P

iCyclone
2 hrs ·
According to radar and satellite imagery, Cyclone ITA made landfall at 9 pm just W of Cape Flattery. In this image, you can see the eye crossing the coast. Highest wind from Cape Flattery so far: 61 knots (113 km/hr) gusting to 86 knots (159 km/hr). The lowest pressure, 962.6 mb, happened during these strong winds, so it looks like the station missed the eye. We haven't received new data from this station in 30 minutes, so we don't know if more extreme pressure/wind values occurred.
ITA always had a small radius of core winds or Eyewall, as the Max Winds only extend out 15 miles on either side of the Eye.



Quoting 261. ricderr:
Yep dem same Scientific Forecaster's that were saying Nola would get as much as 8" of rain. LOL!! I will be in your neck of the woods in August for a convection.


strip clubs?.....gonna make it rain?


LOL Convention. No strip clubs as the conference is from 6am to 7:30pm Tuesday thru Sunday.
Quoting 262. Patrap:
I doubt you will find a better group of Mets than the Slidell, La. office.

Plus, I live in a State that has weather, not A wet or dry Season every Odd/even week.

So Plttttttttttt.

: P


I live in a city that doesn't smell. Eventhough we may have a wet and dry season my city stays clean. Just don't go to Pine Hills though as you may not make it out alive.
Quoting 262. Patrap:
I doubt you will find a better group of Mets than the Slidell, La. office.

Plus, I live in a State that has weather, not A wet or dry Season every Odd/even week.

So Plttttttttttt.

: P


By the way Pat just messing with you so cheer up.
ITA OVERLAND CYCLONE

You have some weird thoughts my Man.

Smell?

That's not weather, plus the French Quarter Festival is on this day,since yesterday, thru the weekend.


We always have 100K in town fer something.

Last week was the WWE Championship's.



Haven't heard no one say "smell" once.

LoL



Have a fine un, I'll be at Claire's Pour Haus on Decatur.



Salute'
Quoting 182. opal92nwf:

It's very interesting how even before '95 there was Elena (which came very close) and Kate in the Panhandle in 85, and even 1975 had Eloise, a strengthening Cat. 3 at landfall. (a largely forgotten storm)
Eloise was vicious..They had winds of 45, then suddenly gust to 150..This slow to fast windspeed tore objects to shreds, rocking and vacillating everything to pieces.
Our world is so beautiful. :)



By the way the SAL is looking very thick across the Caribbean, not doing so bad off the coast of Africa at the moment, should allow sst to warm there.

Quoting 266. StormTrackerScott:



I live in a city that doesn't smell. Eventhough we may have a wet and dry season my city stays clean. Just don't go to Pine Hills though as you may not make it out alive.


We call it Crime Hills for a reason.
Quoting 259. Patrap:
We can all pull up the Local NWS Forecast Disco as it's on every Local Page.

Scientific Forecaster Discussion --- MOS Weather Graph
Somebody said Disco? :D

Quoting 264. Patrap:
ITA always had a small radius of core winds or Eyewall, as the Max Winds only extend out 15 miles on either side of the Eye.



Reminds me of Charley..Vicious little bastard...
Quoting 229. StormTrackerScott:
Looking like a early summer pattern next week across FL with afternoon thunderstorms everyday according to the 06Z GFS.


I remember in May of 2009 I spent a week or so down in Homestead on my Uncle's farm, and there was a significant thunderstorm every day. In fact, while I was there, this storm happened over Miami: I remember reading the local storm reports about this, and then a couple chasers happened to capture it on video.

^^Perfect capture of a classic summer FL pop-up thunderstorm
NHC is still gunning for storm surge warning in 2015. Very neat.

EDIT: NHC will have experimental product for storm surge as well this year.



Before it was demolished in 1994, Kowloon Walled City in Hong Kong was considered the densest settlement on earth, with 33,000 people living within the space of one city block.
CMC has atleast some invests for the EPAC next week..

Quoting 235. HouGalv08:
Keep this in mind: First, the aircraft hasn't even been located yet, they are just zeroing in on the "ping" right now. Zeroing in on the ping narrows the search area where the side scanning sonar will be used to map the sea floor and final location on the aircraft. After finding the aircraft with the side scanning sonar a robotic sub will be sent down to investigate and take pictures or send back live video(think finding the Titanic). Second, after finding the aircraft and determining it's condition (is it intact, mostly intact, in pieces, right side up, up side down, etc), they;ve got to get the FDR and CVR out of the aircraft. If we're lucky the aircraft will be upright and have settled on it's belly. The recorders are located above the aft galley ceiling just ahead of where the bottom edge of the vertical stabilizer joins the fuselage. They are going to have to cut a hole in the fuselage to gain access to the rack where the recorders are mounted. Bottom line, don't expect rapid progress on any of whats ahead in the recovery process. Wish them luck!


Slow progress is an understatement. With all the exposure that Bluefin has been getting from CNN, I sure hope they have their top technicians onboard once they get ready to throw the AUV in the water. The Bluefin 21 is notoriously temperamental and typically results in numerous false starts and returns to the surface when deployed. CNN will be getting anxious trying to get answers why no data has been collected as they try to get the AUV to work properly. Then keep in mind that although the specs on the Bluefin 21 suggest that it has a 25 hour duration, it is more like 16 to 18 hours, because it runs on battery power, as opposed to other longer-duration AUVs (50-60 hours) that generate power through chemical reaction. Depending on the size of the area that they have to cover, this will be a long process, since at about 3.5 kts they will probably only be able to cover 25 to 30 sq mi per day.

Don't understand why they don't have (or at least haven't mentioned) having a full ocean depth multibeam echosounder standing by. Anything as big as chunk of a fuselage or engine ought to be readily identifiable and they could cover well over 1000 sq mi per day.
Quoting 280. Skyepony:
CMC has atleast some invests for the EPAC next week..

CMC Can't (stop) making cyclones.
Quoting 266. StormTrackerScott:


I live in a city that doesn't smell. Eventhough we may have a wet and dry season my city stays clean. Just don't go to Pine Hills though as you may not make it out alive.


That's not fair to Pat. One has to leave the chair in front of their computer to experience the outdoors.

GQ's World's Worst Smelling Cities Spoiler alert, NO comes in at #3.
CMC has atleast some invests for the EPAC next week..


and thus it begins.....blob watching in the pacific
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
I live in a small rural town of North Carolina where all you smell is pigs and cows. Seriously, there was a large pig farm behind my high school and it always reek so badly every single morning... especially during spring.
Quoting 282. washingtonian115:
CMC Can't (stop) making cyclones.

That's the first cyclone I've seen it make in the EPAC in a long time.. Doesn't even turn that swirl off Africa into a cyclone.

It does start it's remains spinning up as almost shallow warm core but that quickly goes cold.

Looks like a quiet hurricane season this year.
Quoting 283. SuperYooper:


That's not fair to Pat. One has to leave the chair in front of their computer to experience the outdoors.

GQ's World's Worst Smelling Cities Spoiler alert, NO comes in at #3.
Couple of factors that go into that, 1)Food, 2)Industrial Plants in nearby towns, 3)Population. Notice those on the list are major cities in the world. NYC should be up there too.
Been looking for live streams of Ita...
This is all I've got so far:

Australian Broadcasting Corp News Live Stream

http://www.abc.net.au/news/abcnews24/

I'm curious about the small eye this cyclone has...
what factors determine the size of the eye?
thanks...
-z
I lurk the wunderground.
Quoting 181. StormTrackerScott:
You have to admit guys it was me who called this last November that Spring 2014 we will see a strong El-Nino take shape and most of you laughed and tried to shun me off the blog.


I'm not sure why anyone would want to shun the idea of a strong El Nino, plenty of evidence to suggest that's a possibility (even though the most likely is a moderate El Nino). Certainly more likely than continued neutral conditions, imo.

East Haven, CT warming up on april 11 2014 at 2pm

66.3 °F Overcast

Full Conditions & Forecast



Nearby Airports

New Haven | Overcast | 66 °F
Meriden | Mostly Cloudy | 64 °F
Bridgeport | Clear | 67 °F




Nearby Weather Stations

Beacon Hill/Lake Saltonstall - Branford | 66.3 °F
Rock Hill | 65.8 °F
Foxon | 66.4 °F

As a geologist, people are always asking my opinion of global warming. There was a newspaper article with a very small chart that I wanted a better view of, after researching the cited resources I found only the same small image over and over. This bothered me since time did not appear to be graphed linear, it was exaggerated the closer you got to present Times. So I found the data depository where the graph came from, there is a huge amount of data that have been collected from ocean floor core samples and the historical temperatures determined. I mapped this data, going back a couple million years(humans have been on earth only 10 thousand years) and the graph, which is linear, just like reality, showed several warming and cooling periods. The last warming period was much hotter than current. So, do I believe in man-made global warming, no.
Quoting 294. cheletwin2:

As a geologist, people are always asking my opinion of global warming. There was a newspaper article with a very small chart that I wanted a better view of, after researching the cited resources I found only the same small image over and over. This bothered me since time did not appear to be graphed linear, it was exaggerated the closer you got to present Times. So I found the data depository where the graph came from, there is a huge amount of data that have been collected from ocean floor core samples and the historical temperatures determined. I mapped this data, going back a couple million years(humans have been on earth only 10 thousand years) and the graph, which is linear, just like reality, showed several warming and cooling periods. The last warming period was much hotter than current. So, do I believe in man-made global warming, no.
Ive been also reading about past temps on earth and there WERE seveal periods in time where the temps were higher than todays,the earth itself goes thru these periods of hot then cold all thru its history..I really dont see anything OUT of the ordinary, its just todays humans havent experienced this warming.