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Category 4 Hurricane Jimena Approaches Baja California

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 7:50 AM GMT on August 31, 2009

Hi, this is Dr. Rob Carver filling in for Dr. Masters. Hurricane Jimena is the main story for the North American tropics with satellite-estimated winds of 145 mph. This makes Jimena a Category 4 storm on the Saffir-Simpson scale. However, later today, we will actually have measured winds for this storm. The Plan of the Day indicates that an Air Force reconnaissance mission to Jimena has been scheduled for the middle of the day Aug. 31. Hurricane watches have been posted for the southern Baja peninsula.

Jimena continues to have an impressive presentation on satellite with a compact core and cold cloud tops. Late in the afternoon, the TRMM satellite flew directly over Jimena, and part of the central core was in the field of view of TRMM's radar.


Fig. 1 TRMM overpass at 2355Z Aug 30 showing surface rain fall rates derived from microwave radiometry and Doppler radar. Image courtesy of NRL

This shows that Jimena has a a very tight eyewall, consistent with its intensity, with a possible eyewall replacement cycle starting soon. If the cycle starts, Jimena will likely weaken some, but this is still a dangerous storm. The AF reconnaissance mission will provide NHC's forecasts a good deal of information about the storm and improve the computer forecasts (There really isn't much in the way of measurements out there.) It is also important to note that as Jimena moves northward, it will move over cooler water, which is not favorable for maintaining its intensity.

The current track forecast calls for Jimena to make landfall on the western coast of Baja southwest of La Paz. Given the angle between Jimena's track and Baja's coastline, there is a wide spread of possible landfall locations. People living in this area need to be making hurricane preparations now.

Invest 94L Invest 94L is still out there, moving westwards to the Lower Antilles. People in the Lesser Antilles still need to keep an eye on this storm, as tropical storm formation is possible with this storm. This is still considerable uncertainty on the track of this feature as different models have different initializations of the storm. However, the Plan of the Day indicates that reconnaissance missions into Invest 94L could start as soon as Tuesday, September 1, which would give everybody more data to understand what's going on.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks for answering my question!!....
Ok, I'm not panicking yet...
Quoting RayRayfromLa:


WOW Stormsurge... that is scary!! maybe this will be the first time that they are wrong!
hopefully as I live in Louisiana.. we do not need any storms this year, we are still trying to get over Katrina and Gustav from last year


Amen to that.
Quoting connie1976:
I live in South Florida....what I want to know is how can anyone say that this is coming here when it's not a td yet and the models aren't clear yet?? (I'm sorry if this is a stupid question...I'm just trying to learn)...


Connnie, most of us who know very little about the weather usually make little fill-in comments. Nobody knows at this time where 94L will end up. It is a running joke about the F word (meaning Florida) that any storm which forms is going to hit us. The most I contribute is post a map of something, which I mostly don't understand. However, when we do ask questions, those here who are informed, usually provide good observations. Questions provoke thinking, or even re-thinking. Therefore, in a way we are contributing. I do believe they shall have a better handle today or tomorrow.
94L looking like a TS to me.
Seems if the shear doesn't get 94L the track will depend on when and if the front now draped
along the east coast dissipates . It is also possible high pressure ridges in to the west and keeps it on a west-northwest track.
Quoting connie1976:
I live in South Florida....what I want to know is how can anyone say that this is coming here when it's not a td yet and the models aren't clear yet?? (I'm sorry if this is a stupid question...I'm just trying to learn)...


It's just heading wnw, like it's been doing for days, and as the weather forecast is saying that there will be high pressure on the eastern seaboard by the weekend, that should prevent it from curving north like Bill and Danny. Some models are still showing it going north, though. Still a long way out and could get sheared out of existence, but a Florida landfall is also a possibility. If I was a bookmaker, I'd be laying odds of 2/1 against this making landfall in Florida as a tropical storm and 3/1 as a hurricane.
Anything to watch N of DR Bahamas area?

Not seeing much except gray, but here is a ....

Webcam La Paz Baja
What's up with that area above Puerto Rico??? Is that something to be monitored???
Is it just me or is that blob east of the Bahamas showing signs of rotation?
Morning All,
Well, last year on Monday Sept 1st we were hit by Hanna( twice) and then on Saturday we had Ike....so not only do I not like the current models of 94l But I also don't like the look of the blobby to the N.east of us...
Good to see you surfmom.. can't recall seeing you around for awhile.
514. P451
You can see the Lower Level spin is quite west of the blob of convection. This system is not vertically stacked no matter how nice it looks.

VISIBLE:



And I posted the short wave imagery.



You can see the lower level spin is quite west of the upper level spin (blob.

Can't get rapid development while that continues.

Of note is also the apparent due west movement.
Quoting Elena85Vet:
Anything to watch N of DR Bahamas area?



its a ull trying to work its way down to the surface
Quoting connie1976:
I live in South Florida....what I want to know is how can anyone say that this is coming here when it's not a td yet and the models aren't clear yet?? (I'm sorry if this is a stupid question...I'm just trying to learn)...

Not a stupid question at all.
Your line of thinking is absolutely correct...it's too early to tell. The more rational, intelligent people on here will say "it may do this" or "it's possible it might do this" and back up their statements with analysis and explanations. Then you have the other group that simply starts "guessing" and hyping things up.

Quoting cchsweatherman:


That shows the speed of the wind shear.

Don't people sometimes use the 3+hr. shear map to estimate vorticity?
Thanks Grothar...

Oh....just curious as to why you wanted to head to tornado alley? lol :)
we will have TD-5 or TS Erika at 11am
Quoting Chicklit:

Don't people sometimes use the 3+hr. shear map to estimate vorticity?


no, theres a vorticity map as well
Quoting WeathermanAG:
we will have TD-5 or TS Erika at 11am


are you sure? usually nrt has the renumber sequence.
Quoting Chicklit:

Don't people sometimes use the 3+hr. shear map to estimate vorticity?

There is really no reason to ESTIMATE vorticity when you can look right at the vorticity maps themselves for the accurate info.
Quoting P451:
You can see the Lower Level spin is quite west of the blob of convection. This system is not vertically stacked no matter how nice it looks.

VISIBLE:



And I posted the short wave imagery.



You can see the lower level spin is quite west of the upper level spin (blob.

Can't get rapid development while that continues.

Of note is also the apparent due west movement.


Right now, in analyzing satellite imagery, I see the circulation center on the western edge of the main convective mass.
525. P451
Other AOI's.

Nicaragua/Honduras:



NW GOM:



East of the Bahamas:



African Waves:



Here is the latest Low Level Steering barbs near 94L .... would exect general wnw based on this:

Quoting connie1976:
I live in South Florida....what I want to know is how can anyone say that this is coming here when it's not a td yet and the models aren't clear yet?? (I'm sorry if this is a stupid question...I'm just trying to learn)...


Nobody knows at this point and time if it's a S. Florida storm... It's WAY TOO EARLY to know. But you get people on here (I won't mention names) that are just Florida Wishcaster and that everything out there is heading to S. Florida.

Best bet is to Always Be Prepared in the event this or anything else does have it's sights on us here in S.E. Florida. Listen to your local authorities and check into the Hurricane Centers websight for updates
528. P451
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Right now, in analyzing satellite imagery, I see the circulation center on the western edge of the main convective mass.


Thanks for your analysis.

Until it stacks better - development will continue to be on the slow side correct?
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:

There is really no reason to ESTIMATE vorticity when you can look right at the vorticity maps themselves for the accurate info.

Do you have a link for that?
Quoting cchsweatherman:


Right now, in analyzing satellite imagery, I see the circulation center on the western edge of the main convective mass.


Agreed.
Quoting Grothar:


Connnie, most of us who know very little about the weather usually make little fill-in comments. Nobody knows at this time where 94L will end up. It is a running joke about the F word (meaning Florida) that any storm which forms is going to hit us. The most I contribute is post a map of something, which I mostly don't understand. However, when we do ask questions, those here who are informed, usually provide good observations. Questions provoke thinking, or even re-thinking. Therefore, in a way we are contributing. I do believe they shall have a better handle today or tomorrow.
connie...i've lived here in so. fla for all of my lifetime.. its nature..and you have to work woth it..94 is still too far to be worried..cme back 2 days or when its named..
94 l if it does develop will be sucked up by the same trough that pulled danny out to sea...this trough is going to be reinforced and will be around for another week..the east coast is very well protected from getting hit by a hurricane at least through the mid september..im worried about something forming on the front in the gom though it could spell some trouble down the road for the gulf states...im watching it closely...Stormno
As long as 94l survives enough to get to the Bahamas it will develop. Forward speed should be decreasing, so if it just spins around the Bahamas region it is very conductive there. Plus very warm waters around that area.


Looking healthier in each frame. The only thing I ask, is that the phrases "Hunker down" and "Pray for the best and expect the worst" are not used on this blog. Every mayor and city offical in Florida uses these terms "ad nauseum" when a storm is approaching.

Question: Does 94L still look like a more westerly motion?
Quoting WeathermanAG:
we will have TD-5 or TS Erika at 11am


The hurricane god has spoken!!!!
Quoting Chicklit:

Do you have a link for that?


You mean this one?

Link
Quoting P451:
You can see the Lower Level spin is quite west of the blob of convection. This system is not vertically stacked no matter how nice it looks.

VISIBLE:



And I posted the short wave imagery.



You can see the lower level spin is quite west of the upper level spin (blob.

Can't get rapid development while that continues.

Of note is also the apparent due west movement.


Hmmm yes i see it too its being covered by some convection but this is quite odd how displaced the convection is.
How accurate is the Farmers Almanac in predicting the weather. What does it say for the first 3 days of September?
Tropics now firing on all cylinders...full throttle up, over, roger
Quoting Elena85Vet:


You mean this one?

Link

That's funny. Thanks, Elena. Guess I'd better quit multi-tasking and either work or look at maps!
Quoting plylox:
How accurate is the Farmers Almanac in predicting the weather. What does it say for the first 3 days of September?


LOL. For what region?
544. P451
World Radar Links

Link

The Mexico radars appear to be down.
The farmers almanac is pure crap in regards to predicting weather. Dr Masters did an article on this recently.

No need to get all hyped over 94L just yet. Not until it becomes better defined and with better model input and initialization are we going to have a better idea of where it will go. You have to remember models have a tough time initializing weak systems properly. Once the hunters get in there to give the models better data will we have a better idea of what it just might do. Wait and see folks. No need to panic.
Quoting plylox:
How accurate is the Farmers Almanac in predicting the weather. What does it say for the first 3 days of September?


It does say there is a Gulf threat from Sept 4th-7th.Link


Hey, I found another one that just came out. Can anybody here tell me what it means. I am serious this time.
ya know what noticed? where has Hada or Hades the one that tracks WPac and EPac tropical storms? where has he been?
overall convection is increasing, once the system slows down the convection will catch up with the coc.
is the NHC going to issue watches for the northern islands? its only 36 hours from them...
Quoting P451:
You can see the Lower Level spin is quite west of the blob of convection. This system is not vertically stacked no matter how nice it looks.

VISIBLE:



And I posted the short wave imagery.



You can see the lower level spin is quite west of the upper level spin (blob.

Can't get rapid development while that continues.

Of note is also the apparent due west movement.

I posted basically the same thing this morning, the LLC is actually around 13N/54W, while MLC is around 15N/52, even the quikscat shows this , though LLC is not really all that defined.
All in all the system has indeed become better organized over the past hrs BUT upper conditions just ahead will go down hill pretty quickly.It might be quite a struggle as it moves just north of puerto rico.
for what a tropical wave lol..
I noticed the BAMM's are rather tightly clustered. In reading about the model suite, it said that is usually indicative of a good forecast. TCVN is right with the Med and Shallow as well. If the NHC were to start advisories it would most likely be similar, IMO.
Quoting plylox:
How accurate is the Farmers Almanac in predicting the weather. What does it say for the first 3 days of September?


About as accurate as the weather channel.
Quoting hurricane23:
All in all the system has indeed become better organized over the past hrs BUT upper conditions just ahead will go down hill pretty quickly.It might be quite a struggle as it moves just north of puerto rico.


As a matter of fact it might not even survive, but I have been surprised before. I will dare to say that it looks like an early Fall and that even that you will see plenty of activity this next two weeks the fall pattern will stop development or steer whatever might form north out to sea
anyone besides stoormfury in St. Lucia?
HPC Preliminary Extended Forecast Discussion

THIS MODEL CHOICE DOES NOT EXTEND TO THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
15N 52W...WHERE A COMBINATION OF CONTINUITY AND THE 00Z
MULTI-MODEL ENSEMBLE SPREAD WERE UTILIZED TO RECURVE THE LOW
OFFSHORE FLORIDA/THE BAHAMAS JUST AHEAD OF THE STATIONARY FRONT
AND MINIMIZE POSSIBLE ERROR. HOW MUCH OF A SURFACE LOW EXISTS
OFFSHORE FLORIDA AND THE BAHAMAS IS QUESTIONABLE...AS THE UPPER
PATTERN IN THE 00Z ECMWF/06Z GFS/00Z CANADIAN APPEARS LESS THAN
IDEAL NORTH OF 20N LATITUDE AND WEST OF 60W LONGITUDE.
HOWEVER...ENOUGH OF THE 00Z ECMWF/CANADIAN ENSEMBLE MEMBERS CARRY
THIS LOW PAST 70W TO ALLOW IT TO APPEAR ON THE PROGS FOR THE TIME
BEING...PENDING THE 16Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC. THIS LED TO
CHANGES TO CONTINUITY ACROSS THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...BUT MAINTAINS
GOOD CONTINUITY ELSEWHERE.



Preliminary Graphics
Jimena going northerly.
Link
561. P451
Approximately 4 hours old - but it does show the structure nicely. Unfortunate these images aren't more readily available - why we don't have a geostationary satellite that can produce these images is beyond logic!

Quoting TexasWynd:
ya know what noticed? where has Hada or Hades the one that tracks WPac and EPac tropical storms? where has he been?


HadesGodWyvern
I don't understand why in the 8:00AM TWO it says that 94L is moving West southwest. But on the advisory that we see on the wunderground home page it says NW. Can someone tell me which direction it's moving?
Quoting alaina1085:


LOL.

Alaina... you have mail.



Quoting hurricane23:
All in all the system has indeed become better organized over the past hrs BUT upper conditions just ahead will go down hill pretty quickly.It might be quite a struggle as it moves just north of puerto rico.


Will depend upon whether or not the upper-level anticyclone stays with the system and can hold on. Only time will tell, but as we have seen throughout the season, the computer models have had a poor time handling the upper level environment.
Quoting hurricane23:
All in all the system has indeed become better organized over the past hrs BUT upper conditions just ahead will go down hill pretty quickly.It might be quite a struggle as it moves just north of puerto rico.

how many times r we gonna say this theres an anticyclone over it so shear will not be a problem
Hello everyone,

Longtime lurker (about a year on and off), first time poster. I'm a New Jersey transplant down here in Louisiana (was in New Orleans for 7 years, now in Prairieville, a bit outside of Baton Rouge) and I just wanted to finally register to say how much I appreciate some of the posts on here that obviously demonstrate a good deal of knowledge and forethought. I've learned quite a bit from reading some of the great posts on here.

Obviously, I'll be keeping an eye on 94L over the next week as I'm still worried about the possibility of this getting into the GOM.
Quoting btwntx08:

how many times r we gonna say this theres an anticyclone over it so shear will not be a problem


Based upon the computer models, later down the road near the Bahamas, the system could lose the anticyclone protecting it, but thats far from guaranteed. Thats why Adrian has made this statement.
12z NAM 60 hours

571. P451
Some light showers entering the Antilles with the flow ahead of 94:



Hi Eagles...jump on in. The water's warm and tropics are definitely heating up.
Quoting Grothar:

If you look at 126hrs time with that graphic u will get scared
Quoting palmasdelrio:
I don't understand why in the 8:00AM TWO it says that 94L is moving West southwest. But on the advisory that we see on the wunderground home page it says NW. Can someone tell me which direction it's moving?


The wave is moving W. Low is moving WNW to NW.
any indications that the NHC Will begin advisories yet ???
System still looks healthy from a convec standpoint, although the convection is a little displaced imo. I also think the Nhc will wait until 5pm, to make an upgrade, because they want to be sure 94L is not still going through DI cycles.
Just wanted to take this time and wish anyone who may reside or live on Baja California the best luck and hope that they have made all the necessary preparations for what seems like it will be a powerful storm in about 24 hours time. I must say that Hurricane Jimena is one of the most impressive storms I have ever seen in my lifetime just due to the shear expanse of atmosphere its affecting. Not many realize this, but those storms that popped in Southeastern Texas last night were due to the outflow from Hurricane Jimena. This is definitely not a good situation, but I know that they have high building standards in Cabo San Lucas and the surrounding areas, so hopefully the damage will be minimal. I will keep an eye on the storm.
Quoting DaytonaBeachWatcher:
Link

Thanks, DBW...Those are the little squigglies for the serious folks...will try to look at them without going crosseyed!
Future of I94 is questionable. Shear building considerably in next few days. After that all bets off - shear relaxes and ridging pushes it west into Bahamas. It could be a SE US or GOM storm.
Quoting Seflhurricane:
any indications that the NHC Will begin advisories yet ???


I have inside info that says advisories will not be started this morning.
Quoting btwntx08:

how many times r we gonna say this theres an anticyclone over it so shear will not be a problem


Based on the ECMWF south westerly wind shear should begin to impact 94 during the next day or so and probably persist for 48-72hrs.IF it survives than a nice upper level ridge should build which at that time might provide less of a hostile upper enviroment but not perfect by any means.

adrian
Quoting CaneHunter031472:


As a matter of fact it might not even survive, but I have been surprised before. I will dare to say that it looks like an early Fall and that even that you will see plenty of activity this next two weeks the fall pattern will stop development or steer whatever might form north out to sea
You are correct but no one will listen.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just wanted to take this time and wish anyone who may reside or live on Baja California the best luck and hope that they have made all the necessary preparations for what seems like it will be a powerful storm in about 24 hours time. I must say that Hurricane Jimena is one of the most impressive storms I have ever seen in my lifetime just due to the shear expanse of atmosphere its affecting. Not many realize this, but those storms that popped in Southeastern Texas last night were due to the outflow from Hurricane Jimena. This is definitely not a good situation, but I know that they have high building standards in Cabo San Lucas and the surrounding areas, so hopefully the damage will be minimal. I will keep an eye on the storm.

Seeing increasing levels of maturity in you CCHS and am impressed both as a Mom and an education professional. (By the way, it's "sheer expanse," lol.)
You can use these maps to see forecast shear from GFS / CMC / and NOGAPS ... nothing too outrageuos for 94L if on a wnw heading: click to get these and step thru in 12hr increments

567. Grothar
FSU has some of the best graphics - love their stuff.

The image represents 6:00UTC + 54 HOURS - Is that right? Model for position and intensity?
Quoting stormno:
data just received from my office shows there is a strong possibility of a tropical depression developing on the cold front in the GOM...shear down there will slacken and though the ssts have fallen it still will support tropical activity...right now i checked all the buoys along the northern gulfcoast and the ssp is high...i will continue to watch this areathough to me its a very suspect area....i will keep everyoneinformed and if necessary i will start to issue bulletins from my office...Stormno

Good Morining All, Thank you Stormno.. Hey indianrivver guy mentioned Surfmom was here.. didn't see her post but if you're lurking Surfmom, "good to hear you're back" was starting to wonder about you and inquire as to your status.
Also why does Dr.Carver post his advisories at such weird times, is he analyzing late night data? or is he in a strange time zone?
Quoting chsweatherintern2009:


I have inside info that says advisories will not be started this morning.


Not surprising considering that Invest 94L needs to show further consistency and needs to become more vertically aligned. Its getting close to becoming a tropical cyclone, but it just needs some more organization.
AT 8 AM PDT...1500 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS CHANGED THE
HURRICANE WATCH TO A HURRICANE WARNING FOR THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA FROM BAHIA MAGDALENA SOUTHWARD ON THE
WEST COAST...AND FROM SAN EVARISTO SOUTHWARD ON THE EAST COAST...
INCLUDING CABO SAN LUCAS. A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 24
HOURS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED
TO COMPLETION.

Quoting AussieStorm:

If you look at 126hrs time with that graphic u will get scared


No kidding. 148 mph? Doesn't look like it moves very much in that scenario...
Quoting AussieStorm:

If you look at 126hrs time with that graphic u will get scared


Can you copy and paste, Aussie? Thank you!
Quoting Seflhurricane:
any indications that the NHC Will begin advisories yet ???


Seems to be surviving the diurnal cycle well, so far. The center is covered right now so probably a little resistance to see if it maintains this appearance or improves.
Quoting BrockBerlin:
Also why does Dr.Carver post his advisories at such weird times, is he analyzing late night data? or is he in a strange time zone?

He is in England, I believe.
Quoting AussieStorm:

If you look at 126hrs time with that graphic u will get scared


To which graphic are your referring? I probably wouldn't understand it anyway. Also, sorry about your loss Aussie. You were gone by the time i saw it.
Quoting Chicklit:

Thanks, DBW...Those are the little squigglies for the serious folks...will try to look at them without going crosseyed!


when u get to the site, click on the blue square, it shows a full sized map of vorticity. The yellow and redish are the higher vorticiy values. You need to check different levels of the atmosphere, via the 200-700mb levels depeneding on the size and strength of the storm.
Quoting Chicklit:

He is in England, I believe.


That would make sense
Quoting Chicklit:

Seeing increasing levels of maturity in you CCHS and am impressed both as a Mom and an education professional.


Awe. That was mushy. :)
I've update my blog with info on 94L and Jimena in the EPAC...

8/31 UPDATE - 94L and its Future; Cat 4 Jimena Heading for Baha California

600. P451
A nice look at WV from the U of Hawaii (very resource intensive site!)



Check the flow pouring northward in SA.

Quoting Chicklit:

Seeing increasing levels of maturity in you CCHS and am impressed both as a Mom and an education professional.


Thanks Chicklit. I have been working really hard on changing my approach and attitude since I recognized that I came across before as a melodramatic brash kid and knew I had to change to earn any respect.

By the way, I like your contributions to the blog and how you bring that motherly persona out in subtle ways. I look forward to working together this hurricane season.
Quoting KEHCharleston:
567. Grothar
FSU has some of the best graphics - love their stuff.

The image represents 6:00UTC + 54 HOURS - Is that right? Model for position and intensity?


I believe you they are. You can thank mikatnight and Jupiter, I believe they taught me where these things were.
p451 A lot of moisture for 94l NICE SHOT!!!
Quoting BrockBerlin:
Also why does Dr.Carver post his advisories at such weird times, is he analyzing late night data? or is he in a strange time zone?


His blog indicates he is in San Francisco, where WU has an office.
Quoting Vortex95:
p451 A lot of moisture for 94l NICE SHOT!!!


That does seem a good observation...
Quoting Chicklit:

Seeing increasing levels of maturity in you CCHS and am impressed both as a Mom and an education professional. (By the way, it's "sheer expanse," lol.)


2nd that; he has come a long way since he first started posting a few years ago and has learned "patience" instead of jumping to conclusions when it comes to tropical forecasting.
Before I leave for my classes for the day, I've been noticing a few trends on satellite.

1) The main convective mass appears to be developing into a very symmetrical CDO (central dense overcast) which would signify strengthening and further organization.

2) It seems the low-level circulation center may be getting drawn into this new CDO.

3) This system appears to be moving nearly due west with slight wobbles north from time to time.

All in all, we may be very close to seeing Tropical Depression 5.
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Before I leave for my classes for the day, I've been noticing a few trends on satellite.

1) The main convective mass appears to be developing into a very symmetrical CDO (central dense overcast) which would signify strengthening and further organization.

2) It seems the low-level circulation center may be getting drawn into this new CDO.

3) This system appears to be moving nearly due west with slight wobbles north from time to time.

All in all, we may be very close to seeing Tropical Depression 5.


don't you mean TD#6? :-)
Quoting P451:
A nice look at WV from the U of Hawaii (very resource intensive site!)



Check the flow pouring northward in SA.



Nice shot. Looks as if it/she is trying to grab all the moisture it can get. Not a good sign. Hawaii shot you say?
12z NAM 84hours

Quoting Grothar:


To which graphic are your referring? I probably wouldn't understand it anyway. Also, sorry about your loss Aussie. You were gone by the time i saw it.

This graphic which you posted
94L@54Hrs


94L@126Hrs
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Before I leave for my classes for the day, I've been noticing a few trends on satellite.

1) The main convective mass appears to be developing into a very symmetrical CDO (central dense overcast) which would signify strengthening and further organization.

2) It seems the low-level circulation center may be getting drawn into this new CDO.

3) This system appears to be moving nearly due west with slight wobbles north from time to time.

All in all, we may be very close to seeing Tropical Depression 5.


Sounds like you know what you're talking about, you sold me. Then again, I was willing to bet it'd be a TD by the time I woke up this morning. I even stayed at a Holiday Inn Express. Alas, no appreciable increase in my intellectual prowess…
Good afternoon, after a little trip away to Germany... with that, I missed the remnants of Hurricane Bill but heard it was a pretty blustery affair.

Germany gave me a very impressive lightning storm show though. 2-3 hours of fork lightning, with several bolts at once.

As soon as I go, Bill doesn't strengthen much, and Claudette/Danny thankfully stay low. Can I take the credit? ;)

Could Someone please give me a good link for bouy information?

HWRF has gone crazy with intensities lol.
so what is going to happen at 11?
Latest Dvorak frame is impressive.



Likely over down on the HWRF...ECMWF has south westerly wind shear impinging on the disturbance soon.
Quoting Michfan:
The farmers almanac is pure crap in regards to predicting weather. Dr Masters did an article on this recently.

No need to get all hyped over 94L just yet. Not until it becomes better defined and with better model input and initialization are we going to have a better idea of where it will go. You have to remember models have a tough time initializing weak systems properly. Once the hunters get in there to give the models better data will we have a better idea of what it just might do. Wait and see folks. No need to panic.
The Farmers' Almanac® is just plain fun. It's not something to rely on for making decisions regarding life and property. Enjoy reading it. Sometimes it's right.

Even long term climatological forecast such as Dr. Gray's have a large margin of error but keep getting better as humanity's understanding and technology advances.

When looking out for life and property stick with the short term forecast. Don't start preparing your hual and hunker plans at the last minute. Blogger, Patrap, has an excellent resource on his blog regarding preparation and aftermath.

Quoting Patrap:

Based on satellite imagery, it looks like a depression has formed. TD 6 at 11:00 imo
Recent ASCAT pass indicates 94L does not have a closed LLC, however there are some rain contaminated points.



Click on image to view original size in a new window



Invest 94L looks like a TD to me. HWRF model intensity is certainly scary. Major hurricane by Saturday? I don't know.....

Good morning all.
Tomorrow is the 1 year anniversary of Gustav. I'm still debating whethere to rebuild one of the fences we lost. May wait until Nov. 30.
Folks:

Just wanted to point out a new tropical cyclone satellite archive resource that you might find useful. All the datasets (satellite images & analyses) produced by UW/CIMSS in real time
at:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

...are available for most tropical cyclone basins going back 8-10 years at:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/archive/

Jason

**************************************************************************
Jason Dunion
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division
12 Z Statistical/Simple Models (CLIPER,BAMs,LBAR,other Statistical Models)

Quoting Patrap:


622. That's a good loop patrap.
Quoting StormHunter89:
Could Someone please give me a good link for bouy information?



Can't link it, but this is pretty good. Try it
Place mouse over what you want and it returns info on botton


http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/
Quoting hurricane23:
Likely over down on the HWRF...ECMWF has south westerly wind shear impinging on the disturbance soon.


Yeah I don't see any way this thing gets that strong, I mean yeah I think it will survive the shear and become a decent storm/maybe hurricane but Cat.4 I don't think so.
Quoting Patrap:


Mornin' Patrap...
Look like a TD to you?
Quoting ErikMia:
Folks:

Just wanted to point out a new tropical cyclone satellite archive resource that you might find useful. All the datasets (satellite images & analyses) produced by UW/CIMSS in real time
at:

http://cimss.ssec.wisc.edu/tropic2/

...are available for most tropical cyclone basins going back 8-10 years at:

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/archive/

Jason

**************************************************************************
Jason Dunion
NOAA/AOML/Hurricane Research Division


Thank you! Great link.
12Z Early Cycle NHC Dynamic Models (More sophisticated models)

Quoting StormHunter89:
Could Someone please give me a good link for bouy information?



Link
Interesting to see CMC take it out to sea
thanks nrtiwlnvragn. much appreciated.
I've seen several posts on how the shear in front of 94L's forward motion is going to affect it and then several posts on how the anti cyclyone will protect it from the shear.

Can someone elaborate on this and how they might be able to tell which of the two scenarios is more likely or will win out?

Quoting mikatnight:


Mornin' Patrap...
Look like a TD to you?



I usually dont call anything,but 94L looking Very Healthy this morning.
Early cycle models, sort of gaining a consensus, but still do not go far enough to show recurve or CONUS threat (although obviously the long-range forecasts for several models show one or the other, but I don't put much stock in long-range forecasts).
Quoting Seastep:


The wave is moving W. Low is moving WNW to NW.

thanks. Since I don't know too much about weather, I really appreciate all the information that's being posted.
When we get a depression, we will know where its going. Intensity is the big question.
Based on windshift and speeds, coc just passed this buoy:

Link
Quoting Patrap:


#644 - wonder why the HWRF is so out of line with the others (cat 4 in 5 days)?
94L looks like its going straight to tropical storm Erika!!!!
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Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS New Orleans/Baton Rouge, LA


Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary Off
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------


000
FXUS64 KLIX 311301
AFDLIX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
801 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

NO PROBLEMS WITH THE FLIGHT THIS MORNING. THE FRONT HAS PASSED
THROUGH THE AREA AND THE WINDS HAVE SHIFTED AROUND TO THE NORTH AT
THE SURFACE ALTHOUGH THEY ARE LIGHT THIS MORNING. THE NORTH WINDS
HOWEVER ARE NOT VERY DEEP INTO THE COLUMN AS THEY SHIFT BACK TO
THE WEST AT AROUND 2500 FEET. IT IS STILL FAIRLY MOIST FROM THE
SURFACE TO AROUND THAT POINT WHERE A CLOUD DECK HAD FORMED EARLIER
AND MOVED OUT. ABOVE THAT...THE SOUNDING DRIES OUT CONSIDERABLY
ESPECIALLY ABOVE 600 MB. PW VALUE HAS COME DOWN FROM 2.25 INCHES
YESTERDAY MORNING TO 1.75 INCHES THIS MORNING. OBVIOUSLY NEAR THE
COAST WHERE THE FRONT IS STILL LINGERING...THE SOUNDING WOULD LOOK
CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENT AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE SITUATED
JUST OFF THE COAST.

98/SO

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 431 AM CDT MON AUG 31 2009/

SHORT TERM...
FRONT HAS SLOWED IT PROGRESS INTO THE GULF THIS MORNING. BUT IT IS
STILL MOVING AND SHOULD REMAIN OFFSHORE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.
UPPER MARITIME RIDGING SEEN FROM THE EAST PAC ALL THE WAY INTO THE
NE GULF. THIS IS ALLOWING A NICE COLUMN OF WEAK LIFT ALONG THE OLD
FRONTAL AXIS. THE TROPICAL RECIPE WILL BE THERE FOR THE NEXT
SEVERAL DAYS SO THE OLD BOUNDARY WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED. THE MOST
INTERESTING FEATURE ON THE MAP THIS MORNING IS THE TROPICAL SYSTEM
NEARING THE NE CARIBBEAN ISLANDS. MOST GLOBAL SOLUTIONS WEAKEN THE
SYSTEM BACK INTO AN OPEN WAVE BEFORE BRINGING IT INTO THE GULF
OVER THE WEEKEND.

AVIATION...
PATCHY LIFR CIGS AND MVFR VSBYS DEVELOPING OVER SOUTHWEST MS MAY
IMPACT THE KMCB AREA EARLY THIS MORNING. ALSO...MVFR CIGS NEAR KNBG
COULD BRIEFLY IMPACT KMSY THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS...OTHERWISE DRIER
AIR BEHIND THE COLD FRONT SHOULD DEEPEN AND MIX OUT THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE AND CLOUDS BY MID MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM
MID MORNING THROUGH TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY. 22/TD

MARINE...
COLD FRONT IN THE COASTAL WATERS FROM NEAR BRETON SOUND TO NEAR
ATCHAFALAYA BAY WILL ONLY DRIFT SOUTH AS A WEAK WAVE DEVELOPS AND
MOVES ALONG THE BOUNDARY. THIS WILL KEEP CONVECTION IN THE FORECAST
FOR THE COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED
TO PUSH FARTHER SOUTH INTO THE NORTH GULF WITH MODERATE OFFSHORE
FLOW DEVELOPING IN ITS WAKE THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK. 22/TD

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MCB 87 63 88 61 / 10 0 0 0
BTR 88 66 89 63 / 10 0 0 10
MSY 88 72 88 71 / 20 10 10 10
GPT 87 66 88 64 / 20 10 10 20

&&

.LIX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
GM...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$








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Quoting Patrap:


Pat whats your take on this storm?
Quoting cchsweatherman:
Just wanted to take this time and wish anyone who may reside or live on Baja California the best luck and hope that they have made all the necessary preparations for what seems like it will be a powerful storm in about 24 hours time. I must say that Hurricane Jimena is one of the most impressive storms I have ever seen in my lifetime just due to the shear expanse of atmosphere its affecting. Not many realize this, but those storms that popped in Southeastern Texas last night were due to the outflow from Hurricane Jimena. This is definitely not a good situation, but I know that they have high building standards in Cabo San Lucas and the surrounding areas, so hopefully the damage will be minimal. I will keep an eye on the storm.


In addition, let's all wish CycloneOZ a safe trip and return. Go Oz!!
looks like a tropical storm to me. great symmetry outflow and its starting to get the spiral rain bands.
#652 that's one long post; my scroling finger got tired...
Quoting Patrap:


Hey Patrap. Happen to catch the HWRF forecast. You think they are really over-doing it by bringing it to CAT 4? The other models seem pretty consistent on your graphic.
94L looks a lot better than "Danny" did during most of it's lifetime...
659. P451
Buoy 41040 Link - Wind just shifted from NE to S.

14.477 N 53.008 W (14°28'38" N 53°0'28" W)



#650

HWRF is storm specific and it's output will improve once 94L becomes better organized.
My humble opinion is that this storm will travel just north of puerto rico and once in the warm waters, it will intensify to a category 2 hurricane making landfall somewhere in the southeast coast. I really do not see anything there that will make it go North. I think that we have a better chance of a Gulf of mexico path than a fish storm
Quoting rwdobson:
94L looks a lot better than "Danny" did during most of it's lifetime...


and Ana as well.
One absence of note is the GFDL
Quoting rwdobson:
94L looks a lot better than "Danny" did during most of it's lifetime...

Judging the time of year, sst, and the projection to go or skim north of the islands, we could be looking at our next major hurricane in the making.
#660 – thank you sir, you’re a gentleman and a scholar…
666. P451
14.600 N 56.201 W (14°36'0" N 56°12'2" W) - 41001 Link




Quoting TheCaneWhisperer:
#650

HWRF is storm specific and it's output will improve once 94L becomes better organized.


If the ECM is right its window might be closeing rather quickly as south westerly shear could begin to impact the system soon.LLC is way west of the main convective mass upon latest ASCAT which came in just a few minutes ago.
looks like A tropical depression is forming look at the IR images in loop towards the end convection is starting to wrap around the Center
94L.
ComeWeds evening,we should have a good bead on its future.

Any well defined Invest TD down in the Alley needs to be treated with respect this time of year.

Once we get some G-4 Data and a Few Penetrations,..a lot more will become clear on track and intensity.

Quoting mikatnight:
#660 – thank you sir, you’re a gentleman and a scholar…


Mike, what did he mean "Storm specific" I hope he means they shall back-off with a big my bad for that CAT 4 scenario. It looks waaaay over-done at this time.
Quoting hurricanehanna:
Good morning all.
Tomorrow is the 1 year anniversary of Gustav. I'm still debating whethere to rebuild one of the fences we lost. May wait until Nov. 30.
Boy, blog is slow and moving fast. Hi Hanna, I'd wait on the fence. I remember a guy on the radio in Chalmette (during Cindy before Katrina) who called in to say at 2 am that he was holding his new fence up with a rope 'cause he just put it up. That image in my mind was kinda funny but little did we all know he'd have much more trouble later. BBL
Could take a track similar to Georges, except missing the islands; watch out florida keys.
I know Jimena looks large and all but...

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 30 MILES...45 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80
MILES...130 KM.


That seems like an awfully small wind field...doesn't it?
Well NHC expects 94l to be TS within 36 hours or so if the wording in their recon flight plans is any indication. First flight scheduled for tomorrow at 18z (2pm edt).

900 AM EDT MON 31 AUGUST 2009
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 01/1100Z TO 02/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2009
TCPOD NUMBER.....09-095

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. SUSPECT AREA (APPROACHING THE LESSER ANTILLES)
FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 75
A. 01/1800Z
B. AFXXX 01BBA INVEST
C. 01/1600Z
D. 17.5N 56.5W
E. 01/1730Z TO 01/2200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT

FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 76
A. 02/0600Z, 1200Z
B. AFXXX 0206A CYCLONE
C. 02/0400Z
D. 18.0N 58.0W
E. 02/0530Z TO 02/1200Z
F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
Quoting Seflhurricane:
looks like A tropical depression is forming look at the IR images in loop towards the end convection is starting to wrap around the Center


Do not use conventional IR imagery when searching for a surface circulation.Looks can be deceiving.
676. P451
Alright, speculate away what this means in term of a COC.

thanks
NOAA weather says that the trough will weaken or go diffuse and ridge will move in over eastern GOM.
Fair waves from Danny, Saturday at Ponce was fun, good conditions. 94L could be our next wavemaker, just in time for the weekend (again). But I don't see how it will survive the shear in front of it, unless the shear moves west ahead of it, or weakens. Water temp up here finally over 80 degrees....
It looks like something might be trying to form in that cluster of storms in the Southern Bahamas, ahead of what may be erika
Quoting P451:
Alright, speculate away what this means in term of a COC.



As I mentioned earlier, and now supported by ASCAT per Adrian, center just passed over that buoy w/S winds in the past hour or so. If you look, winds went down to zero in the prior increment.

Will be interesting to see what the surface winds are E of the llc.
Quoting P451:
Alright, speculate away what this means in term of a COC.



Competing surface circulations. I would expect the one under the heavy convection to win out eventually.
Quoting Grothar:


Mike, what did he mean "Storm specific" I hope he means they shall back-off with a big my bad for that CAT 4 scenario. It looks waaaay over-done at this time.


I took it to mean that 94L hadn't developed enough for the model to have reliable predictability.
94L has only One CoC as seen on the Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis

94L Multiplatform Satellite Surface Wind Analysis,Wind Field 1200 UTC
Looks like the deep area of convection is finally trying to wrap..
I think NHC should atleast stop calling it an invest. It's TD 6, no questions about it. Thunderstorm activity has really picked up in the past 6 hours as it made a jump to the north recently. Looking at mean layer flow, it looks that it will shoot north of Puerto Rico then take a more westerly route, if the B-A High shifts a little farther west. Looking back at past model data though, NOGAPS has been the best thusfar. I expect decent pressure drops today and a continued consolidation of convection. The anticyclone over it should protect it from crazy shear, but I think it will encounter 20kt shear tomorrow which will frazzle it, but not kill it. I think NHC should step up their flight time to 12z tomorrow...thoughts?
Quoting tanman63:
I think NHC should atleast stop calling it an invest. It's TD 6, no questions about it. Thunderstorm activity has really picked up in the past 6 hours as it made a jump to the north recently. Looking at mean layer flow, it looks that it will shoot north of Puerto Rico then take a more westerly route, if the B-A High shifts a little farther west. Looking back at past model data though, NOGAPS has been the best thusfar. I expect decent pressure drops today and a continued consolidation of convection. The anticyclone over it should protect it from crazy shear, but I think it will encounter 20kt shear tomorrow which will frazzle it, but not kill it. I think NHC should step up their flight time to 12z tomorrow...thoughts?


Couldn't agree more.
NEW BLOG
I thought the anticyclone over 94L weakened?
691. P451
NEW BLOG


NEW BLOG



NEW BLOG


NEW BLOG
Good afternoish...
It looks like the Odds of 94L to make it into the GOMEX are pretty high. Also there is another system in front of it north of Puerto Rico which is forming out of a ULL it seems to also be heading into that direction. I guess I am not going to be heading out to sea in the next few weeks after all. Anyone else have a take on this? Is this observation somewhat accurate or am I a good candidate to eat the crow? I like it fried please....
Quoting cchsweatherman:
At this time, interests in the Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, and the SE Bahamas should be monitoring this situation as it develops since it appears likely that they will see some impacts. What those impacts will be are not known at this time.
And Florida.
Africa has fired up again...does anyone know where the low level COC really is in 94L?