WunderBlog Archive » Category 6™

Category 6 has moved! See the latest from Dr. Jeff Masters and Bob Henson here.

Category 4 Hurricane Felicia peaks in intensity

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:51 PM GMT on August 06, 2009

Category 4 Hurricane Felicia put on a very impressive burst of intensification yesterday, peaking out with 140 mph winds. Recent infrared satellite loops show that Felicia is maintaining its Category 4 intensity, as the cloud tops surrounding the eye have stayed relatively constant in temperature.


Figure 1. Current satellite image of Hurricane Felicia.

While Felicia is an impressive hurricane now, its days are numbered. Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) under Felicia have already declined 1.5°C from yesterday, and are now 27°C--about 1°C above the 26°C threshold needed to sustain a hurricane. Felicia's west-northwest track will continue to take the storm into a region of cooler waters, which should induce a slow but steady weakening trend, beginning later today. Felicia has a very thick ring of intense thunderstorms surrounding the eye, which is characteristic of a class of hurricanes called "annular" hurricanes. Due to their structure, annular hurricane tend to resist weakening, and Felicia will probably weaken only very slowly at first. By Friday morning, SSTs should fall to 26°C, and decline to 24.5°C by Saturday. Wind shear is expected to remain in the low to moderate range over the next three days, 5 - 15 knots. On Sunday, Felicia will be encountering very strong westerly winds aloft, which should create 30 - 40 knots of wind shear. By Monday night, when most of the models predict Felicia will be nearing the Hawaiian Islands, the high shear may be able to tear the storm apart. Only the GFDL model holds on to Felicia that long, predicting that the storm will be a tropical depression with 35 mph winds when it blows through the Hawaiian Islands. The rest of the models dissipate Felicia by Monday. While the current forecast calls for Felicia to have a minor impact on Hawaii, NHC is taking this storm seriously and has scheduled a flight of the NOAA jet into Felicia on Friday. The jet will drop a series of dropsondes that will be used to gather data that will be fed into tomorrow night's 00Z computer model runs. Regular low-level flights by the Hurricane Hunters are scheduled to begin Saturday afternoon.


Figure 2. The eye of Hurricane Felicia as seen by NASA's MODIS instrument on the Terra spacecraft yesterday. The image was taken at 19 UTC 8/5/09 while Felicia was rapidly intensifying. At the time, Felica was a Category 3 hurricane with 115 mph winds. Felicia peaked in intensity as a Category 4 hurricane with 140 mph winds 9 hours after this photo was taken. Image credit: NASA.

Typhoon Morakot takes aim at Taiwan
Category 1 Typhoon Morakot is headed towards Taiwan, and is expected to make landfall tonight. Satellite loops show that the clouds surrounding the eye are developing very cold tops as they push high into the troposphere, a sign the storm is intensifying. Morakot is expected to intensify into a Category 2 typhoon before making landfall. Storm chaser James Reynolds is intercepting the storm and will be posting live updates on his typhoonfury.com web site and twitter for those who want to follow the storm. The large eye of Morakot is now visible on Taiwan radar.

The Atlantic is quiet
There are no areas of disturbed weather in the Atlantic worth mentioning today, and no computer models forecast tropical storm development over the next seven days.

I'll have an update on Friday.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Are any of the models developing the cen. Atlantic wave? Thanks.
central atlantic tw is like a staph infection once the bacteria get ahold it tough to beat
Quite a ball of convection on that wave in the Atlantic. Has a lot of dust to fight, though.
Patrap.. what are the winds on the gust front going across Lake P???
NO Crayons needed...



TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 PM EDT THU AUG 6 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN


Afternoon everyone.
Slow night on the blog I see.

Pat, you get any rain yet today? We had a nice little storm roll thru here.
Quoting leftovers:
central atlantic tw is like a staph infection once the bacteria get ahold it tough to beat


lol
Quoting whitewabit:
Patrap.. what are the winds on the gust front going across Lake P???






All is quiet on the eastern front tonight. CATL area is of little interest, but at this point anything is worth watching. It has a better chance about 3 days out if it holds that far, but for now it's nothing special.
850 mb vorticity:

Morakot
513. IKE
***0-0-0***
Pat... Tks..
just curious what the temp of lake P pat?
Allstar~ The ULL/surface trough N of Hispanolia is really trying to come to the surface..

99W got dropped

06/2030 UTC 19.3N 140.5E T1.0/1.0 90W -- West Pacific
06/2030 UTC 23.2N 123.6E T4.5/4.5 MORAKOT -- West Pacific
06/1800 UTC 22.1N 127.8W T1.0/2.0 ENRIQUE -- East Pacific
06/1800 UTC 16.2N 132.3W T6.0/6.0 FELICIA -- East Pacific
517. ackee
when was the last time we had no name storm in aug anyone ?
42 will develop!
Patrap, pretty big burst of convection in the last frame of #499?
Quoting CandiBarr:
just curious what the temp of lake P pat?


Lake Buoy has 89.8 this evening
God the model intensity forecasts for Felicia are all over the place. lol. Hope the hurricane hunter flights starting tomorrow help the models improve a bit.



18Z is 11am PDT.
hope the people on the west side of Lake P knows this is coming...
Lake Buoy has 89.8 this evening

is that high? i just had a curious thought if fay could strengthen over lake O in theory the same thing could happen over lake P. right? it would be an outlier though?
Quoting CandiBarr:
Lake Buoy has 89.8 this evening

is that high? i just had a curious thought if fay could strengthen over lake O in theory the same thing could happen over lake P. right? it would be an outlier though?


I get muscle spasms when I hear that name... I think I was stuck in the COC for too long, lol. Something could possible gain a small amount of strength, but it would be short lived, guess I'm trying to say it would only be a minor effect at best, if any.
Quoting unlweatherman:
God the model intensity forecasts for Felicia are all over the place. lol. Hope the hurricane hunter flights starting tomorrow help the models improve a bit.



18Z is 11am PDT.


Looks like the GFS weakens it only very slowly.
lol sry to give you spasms, hopefully you didnt bonk your noggin'
Lake Ponchrtrain is shallow,avg 12 to 14 ft and that isnt deep enough to Sustain a System,,but it wouldnt weaken as fast ,one could say.
i c thanks
Anytime..were chatting in StormChat on the Barometer Bob show..

StormChat
Can someone post the current CIMSS wind shear map?
Quoting AllStar17:


Looks like the GFS weakens it only very slowly.


Yeah. The SHIPS model is the least merciful with Felicia, bringing it to dissipation by 5 days out. The other models seem to suggest it'll at least be a depression. GFS forecast doesn't make much sense in my opinion considering the cooling temps. Things may hinge on the shear forecast. If the shear isn't as strong as forecast, even a tropical cyclone under upper-70 degree temps, could maintain itself better and be a little stronger than the current NHC forecast. So once the CPHC gets responsibility for this storm on Saturday, the shear will be their biggest forecast issue as far as Felicia's intensity.
532. JRRP
Quoting CypressJim08:
Can someone post the current CIMSS wind shear map?

Link
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/07/09 00 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY


A study said that tropical storm fay's intensity was sustained by not only the water it was dropping, but lake "o" also.
Quoting StormW:


Good evening!
Good evening to you too. How are you this evening ?
Zero rain Uptown..Tstorms fizzled inbound
Good evening StormW!
Maybe this will be a good season to study why hurricanes do not form.
i may have to lower my forcast from 2 storms to 1 for the season.nothing likely for next 4 weeks.
Quoting mobilegirl81:
A study said that tropical storm fay's intensity was sustained by not only the water it was dropping, but lake "o" also.


i think a good part of it is that florida's so darn skinny... it had an ocean to the west east and south and its bands and stuff picked up that energy
This season could very well beat 1914.only 1 storm.0 is not impossible.
A combination of both maybe?
Quoting HurricaneSwirl:


i think a good part of it is that florida's so darn skinny... it had an ocean to the west east and south and its bands and stuff picked up that energy


Ya Florida is only 90 mile sacross.
545. SLU
*yawn*
Good Morning/Evening all
The Hurricane Hunter's head for Hawaii to help with forecasting.

Quoting LRandyB:


Actually we're not messing around with this one... it's 4 C-130s. They departed Keesler today and will arrive at Hickam AFB on Saturday.

We sent 4 aircrews, staff, and maintenance. I'm one of the folks holding down the fort here in case we get tasking in the Atlantic.


...a comment reply from Randy on his Tropical Weather Discussion Blog


http://www.wunderground.com/blog/LRandyB/show.html


(I wonder if they will fly through the storms on the way to Hawaii?)

CRS
Hey Aussie.
what happened to the blob off the SW coast of Florida???
Quoting hahaguy:
Hey Aussie.

Hey
The blob in the CATL looks to be firing some convection tonight but it is highly doubtful that it will develop into anything.
Quoting HurrMichaelOrl:
Are any of the models developing the cen. Atlantic wave? Thanks.


No real chance there as conditions ahead are quite hostile.
Quoting IKE:
***0-0-0***
i hear that
Stormw - Are you going to do another show??
Quoting StormW:


Good! Just got finished talking to Barometer Bob.
Glad to hear it. I go on Stormchat sometimes too. They are a lot less hostile on there than some are on here at times.
Can't wait to hear your voice.
Felicia still holding at 115 kts.
Quoting AussieStorm:
what happened to the blob off the SW coast of Florida???


Never was anything to it.

Loop
Quoting HIEXPRESS:


Never was anything to it.
It finished drizzling over Lake O
Loop
Quoting HIEXPRESS:


Never was anything to it.
It finished drizzling over Lake O
Loop


Good. Keep the lake full and the 'glades flowing... One of these days they might cancel water restrictions.
Quoting AllStar17:


Am I seeing that right? That spot of yellow on that map is directly under the convection in the CATL disturbance at 12N 42.5W, and at 850 mb at that? I'd just about written it off, but dang, it may yet develop. Stupid blob. I wish it'd either develop or die already.
Quoting Dropsonde:


Am I seeing that right? That spot of yellow on that map is directly under the convection in the CATL disturbance at 12N 42.5W, and at 850 mb at that? I'd just about written it off, but dang, it may yet develop. Stupid blob. I wish it'd either develop or die already.
What are you refering to ?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Felicia still holding at 115 kts.


The eye is starting to shrink a little bit and not look quite so crisp on IR imagery. Also there cloud tops around the center seem to be warming. I think NHC may peg it at 125mph (110 kts) for the 8pm update.
Good evening, all.
Quoting WeatherStudent:
Good evening, all.
Good evening. You are late tonight.
Quoting Drakoen:
Can't wait to hear your voice.



?, :)
Quoting Dakster:


Good. Keep the lake full and the 'glades flowing... One of these days they might cancel water restrictions.

Lake Okeechobee water level as of Aug 06, 2009
13.65 ft.


These models are Cuckoo if they think Morakot is going to have better than 60 knot winds in 60 hours...unless the track really does stay over water far longer than expected.





http://wind.mit.edu/~emanuel/storm.html
These models are Cuckoo if they think Morakot is going to have better than 60 knot winds in 60 hours...unless the track really does stay over water far longer than expected.

Hey atmoaggie-

Intensity models having issues seems to be the issue of the week lol. I need to check up on Morakot, it's one large cyclone!
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Good evening. You are late tonight.



I know, and I apologies to you for it. I was listening to tonight's episode of The Barometer Bob Show.
Quoting WeatherStudent:



I know, and I apologies to you for it. I was listening to tonight's episode of The Barometer Bob Show.
It is very informative.
WunderMap®,Typhoon Morakot


Current Conditions

Dali, Taichung / Taiwan (PWS)

Updated: 2 min 13 sec ago
Temperature: 83.8 °F
Humidity: 76%
Dew Point: 75 °F
Pressure: 28.82 in
Wind: 16.0 mph from the NE
Wind Gust: 16.0 mph



Two people were struck by lightning when thunderstorms moved through East Volusia on Wednesday afternoon, officials said.

A man and woman were injured in the two separate strikes, one in South Daytona and one in Daytona Beach,


1334. HIEXPRESS 2:05 PM GMT on August 06, 2009
1307, then 1305 - follow the leader
Rain for me, rain for you Patrap, better down than sideways but watch out for the sparks.
Lightening has no conscience.

Beware the Strike Leader and the bolt.
Always take cover when it makes an appearance.



Quoting Patrap:
Lightening has no conscience.





The power of lightning has earned my respect, had a family member die in 2002 from a lightning strike. Just one of those things you don't think about until it happens.
Sorry for your Loss. Thats tragic in itself.
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
It is very informative.


It truly is. So, what's up? How are you and yours doing tonight? :)
A few things I'm noticing on the African Next Generation [NEXSAT] Satellite......

1) The wave that emerged today has developed some very pronounced cyclonic turning, albeit without thunderstorms. It is still adjusting to its new environment over water, and will need to be watched as it moves west over the next few days. If it develops some thunderstorms, this could become a contender to be Ana. I do know models have been hinting at some development with this wave. So it will need to be watched as it moves west.

2) A pretty healthy looking wave will emerge tomorrow. It is currently just inland the African continent. It is showing heavy thunderstorm activity, and it too, does show some cyclonic turning (probably more so than the aforementioned one). This should also be watched as it emerges.

JMO, though.
Morakot currently on Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau radar without the terrain colouring that Dr Master's link uses. (the terrain colouring plays havoc with the radar colouring).

Morakot on TCWB radar

Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #31
TYPHOON MORAKOT (T0908)
9:00 AM JST August 7 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South of Okinawa

At 0:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Morakot (945 hPa) located at 23.7N 123.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The typhoon is reported as west-northwest at 8 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity: T4.5

Storm-force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center

Gale-force Winds
================
350 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 24.9N 121.1E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
48 HRS: 26.2N 119.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
72 HRS: 27.7N 117.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)

--
pressure falling >.<
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
pressure falling >.<


The TyphoonHunter has tweeted that he's on the NE coast of Taiwan. After seeing his last few movies from that area, I'm betting you're going to see some really intense video out of Morakot.
HURRICANE FELICIA ADVISORY NUMBER 14
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP082009
800 PM PDT THU AUG 06 2009

...FELICIA MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...

AT 800 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE FELICIA WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 133.6 WEST OR ABOUT
1425 MILES...2290 KM...EAST OF HILO HAWAII AND ABOUT 1590 MILES...
2565 KM...WEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA.

FELICIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/HR.
A GENERAL WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY...WITH A
GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST FORECAST ON SATURDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 135 MPH...215 KM/HR...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. FELICIA IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE SCALE. WEAKENING IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS FELICIA MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 40 MILES...65 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140
MILES...220 KM.

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 948 MB...27.99 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 800 PM PDT INFORMATION...
LOCATION...16.9N 133.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 12 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...948 MB

THE NEXT ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AT
200 AM PDT.

$$
FORECASTER BEVEN
------------------
I'm kinda surprised, they kept it at 135mph. But still a Cat 4. It's been a Cat 4 for 24hrs now.
Quoting WeatherStudent:


It truly is. So, what's up? How are you and yours doing tonight? :)
Doing alright and you ?
Quoting stormwatcherCI:
Doing alright and you ?




Ditto as well.
Quoting Stoopid1:


The power of lightning has earned my respect, had a family member die in 2002 from a lightning strike. Just one of those things you don't think about until it happens.

I am a lightening survivor.
Wow!

TyphoonHunter is a daring person video taping when typhoons make landfall anywhere in Asian countries.
From the 4pm HST WFO Honolulu Forecast Discussion:

HURRICANE FELICIA WAS A LITTLE LESS THAN 1500 MILES EAST SOUTHEAST
OF HILO THIS AFTERNOON AS A LOW END CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE. IT IS
FORECAST TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...HOWEVER THE PUBLIC
SHOULD CONTINUE TO LISTEN FOR UPDATES THROUGH THE WEEKEND SINCE IT
IS TOO EARLY TO BE CERTAIN ABOUT ITS INTENSITY 4 DAYS FROM NOW.
FELICIA MAY STILL BE A TROPICAL DEPRESSION OR POSSIBLY A TROPICAL
STORM WHEN IT REACHES US. THE GENERAL EFFECTS OF A WEAKENED TROPICAL
SYSTEM WOULD BE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL TO
PORTIONS OF THE STATE BY MONDAY THAT COULD PERSIST INTO EARLY
WEDNESDAY.

DUE TO THE TRAVELING CAPTURED FETCH ACCOMPANYING HURRICANE FELICIA
THE BIG ISLAND COULD SEE SURF NEAR THE 15 FOOT WARNING LEVEL MONDAY.
SURF AT ADVISORY TO POSSIBLY WARNING LEVEL IS POSSIBLE ON EXPOSED
WINDWARD SHORES OF OTHER ISLANDS BY LATE MONDAY OR EARLY TUESDAY.
SURF OF THIS TYPE IS NOT A STORM SURGE ACCOMPANYING A HURRICANE BUT
JUST A LARGE SHORT PERIOD AND STORMY SURF EPISODE THAT WOULD CREATE
SOME OF THE TYPICAL WAVE RUN UP ALONG LOW LYING EASTERN SHORELINES
EXPOSED TO AN EAST SWELL.
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
SEVERE TROPICAL CYCLONE FELICIA (EP082009)
3:00 AM UTC August 7 2009
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Hurricane Felicia (948 hPa) located at 16.9N 133.6W or 1240 NM east of of Hilo, Hawaii has sustained winds of 115 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving northwest at 10 knots.

Hurricane-force Winds
====================
35 NM from the center

Gale/Storm-force Winds
===============
120 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 17.8N 134.9W - 105 knots (SSHS-3 Cyclone)
24 HRS: 18.7N 136.6W - 90 knots (SSHS-2 Cyclone)
48 HRS: 19.8N 141.5W - 65 knots (SSHS-1 Cyclone)
72 HRS: 20.0N 147.0W - 45 knots (Tropical Storm)
National Hurricane Center
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #14
TROPICAL DEPRESSION, FORMER ENRIQUE (EP072009)
3:00 AM UTC August 7 2009
====================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression, Former Enrique (1007 hPa) located at 23.2N 129.0W or 1055 NM west of of the southern tip of Baja California Peninsula has sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as moving northwest at 12 knots.

Forecast and Intensity
======================
12 HRS: 24.3N 130.7W - 25 knots (Low Pressure Area)
Japan Meteorological Agency

Tropical Disturbance Summary (0000z 07AUG)
=========================================

At 9:00 AM JST, Tropical Depression, Former Goni (992 hPa) located at 20.0N 110.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 25 knots with gusts of 40 knots. The depression is reported as almost stationary

At 9:00 AM JST, Low Pressure Area (1002 hPa) located at 20.0N 140.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 20 knots and is reported as almost stationary
HGW... from the last bulletin...

070300Z POSITION NEAR 23.8N 122.8E.
TYPHOON (TY) O9W (MORAKOT), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 120 NM SOUTHEAST
OF TAIPAI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 070000Z IS 28
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 070900Z, 071500Z, 072100Z AND 080300Z.//
NNNN
Evenin' bloggers,
See we have Felicia and Morakot...nothing in the Atlantic, Gulf or Caribbean.
So far so good, though I think some areas could use some rain.
HGW... do you know what the surge forecast for it is???

Glad to hear Felicia will weaken.
Coastal Storm Surge Height: 4-5 feet
Quoting whitewabit:
HGW... do you know what the surge forecast for it is???

Dr. Masters said he is working on a new surge area for Wunderground.
Quoting P451:
Felicia has peaked and will probably begin weakening in about 12 hours as it enters progressively cooler waters and higher shear.

Hawaii is well protected by water far too cool to maintain any more than a moderate TS and by a good heavy dose of 50kt shear.

It's par for the course for systems trying to move in from the east so anyone worried that Hawaii is going to get clobbered by a hurricane let alone a major hurricane - well don't.

It will be a TS at best. Probably a depression.

Main concern: Flooding rains and landslides. Even that cannot be forecast yet as it is unknown how well the convection will hold together in the face of that shear and cooler SSTs.

This isn't the Atlantic, folks, this is an entirely different situation and they all end the same: Major hurricane gets torn apart into a remnant low as it nears the islands.
Aloha, I like your straightforward comment about hurricanes coming in from the East not having a chance. Is this actually true? Were there never any hurricanes from the East that made it to Hawaii and hit? I seem to think that maybe this may not be true but I am not an expert. Can you explain your statement better and maybe talk about the hurricanes that did hit and where they came from. Mahalo. Scott from Kailua-Kona
Quoting DaaiTouLaam:
Morakot currently on Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau radar without the terrain colouring that Dr Master's link uses. (the terrain colouring plays havoc with the radar colouring).







Time to play proud poppa...my four-year-old (that doesn't usually pay much attention to what I do on the computer) saw this radar plot and said "Daddy, that kind of looks like a hurricane!" Sorry, had to gush. Dats my boy!
TAIPEI, Taiwan Thursday, August 06, 2009 AP
— Taiwanese braced for the arrival of a major typhoon Friday as local governments closed businesses and schools and airlines canceled scores of flights.

The center of Typhoon Morakot was about 137 miles southeast of Taiwan's eastern county of Yilan, packing winds of 89 mph and moving west at a speed of 9 mph as of 7:15 a.m. Friday, the Central Weather Bureau said.

If Typhoon Morakot sustains its course, it will make landfall in eastern Taiwan on Friday night, it said.

Schools and businesses throughout the island were closed Friday. Some international flights to and from Japan and Hong Kong were canceled. All domestic flights departing from Taipei were also canceled.

Morakot will be the first typhoon to hit Taiwan this year. Typhoons frequently move in between July and September often causing casualties in mountainous regions that are prone to landslides and flash floods.
Quoting Chicklit:
Evenin' bloggers,
See we have Felicia and Morikot...nothing in the Atlantic, Gulf or Caribbean.
So far so good, though I think some areas could use some rain.
whole lotta nuthin...
well that low pressure area near Saipan has a TCFA now.
HGW -

Typhoon Hunter last Sept in Typhoon Sinlaku in pretty much the same area.

photos and video from SuperTyphoon Sepat hitting pretty much the same area.
Well, I have definitely eaten my share of crow this past week. I really thought the impressive wave that is now falling apart in the CATL would be Ana.

I am starting to believe that the forecasters were right in calling for a low CV season and more "homegrown" storms. Wave after wave comes off the coast and the hostile conditions are just tearing them apart.

Now, the GOMEX SSTs are extremely scary!!! Luckily, the Caribbean shear is high - thanks to El Nino. So, I don't think storms will get into the GOMEX unless storm formation begins there. However, with those SSTs, even a storm that begins there could be devastating. Could catch people off-guard.

Anyways, I am very shocked by the lack of development by this point. We will see!
Joint Typhoon Warning Center

Tropical Cyclone Formation Alert (0000z 07AUG)
===========================================
An area of convection (90W) located at 19.2N 139.6E. Recent animated infrared imagery shows mid level convection consolidating over an area of the monsoon trough 400 NM northwest of Saipan. A 2059z Quikscat Pass shows unflagged 15-20 knot winds wrapping into a developing, trough enlongated, low level circulation center. A 1650z 89 GHZ AMSRE image also shows curved inflow into the low level circulation center. Current intensity estimated are based on Dvorak estimates of T1.5 from PGTW and 1.0 from KNES. Upper level analysis indicates the system is under an area of diffluent outflow with a tropical upper tropospheric trough to the northeast starting to provide a poleward tug.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 15-20 knots with a minimum sea level pressure of 1000 MB. Due to the consolidated convection and developing low level circulation center, the potential for this disturbance to form into a significant tropical cyclone within the next 24 hours is UPGRADED TO GOOD.
oh ya I remember that Sinlaku video
...In Zhejiang province 2,076 ships had returned to harbor by 3 p.m. while passenger liner services in Wenzhou and Taizhou cities were suspended.

More than 900 Chinese and foreign tourists have been evacuated from the resort Nanji Island, and measures taken in scenic areas near the coast to assist tourists.

Seventeen teams comprising 138 soldiers are preparing for emergencies, and working with local officials to ascertain potentially hazardous areas. In adjacent Fujian province, nearly 8.4 million short messages had been sent to mobile phone users by 5:30 p.m., warning them to prepare for the typhoon.

Provincial flood control and drought relief headquarters ordered fishing boats and construction vessels to seek shelter in harbors before 6 p.m. Thursday.

As of 6 p.m., more than 1,200 vessels had returned to harbors and 5,242 people had been evacuated in Fujian's Ningde, Putian and Fuzhou. Sea waves as high as six meters battered fish farms.

Weather forecasters said the most severe typhoon this year would push sea waves in the coastal areas to up to nine meters high when it approaches....

Local authorities have warned the public to pay attention to weather forecasts and be aware of the rainstorms and other typhoon-related disasters.
...The eighth tropical storm this year, Morakot was formed on the heels of Goni, which unleashed downpours in Guangdong destroying 732 houses.

"The two storms could influence each other," said Wang Zhenming, vice head of the Zhejiang provincial meteorological station. "As a result, the route of Morakot is not fully predictable."

He warned Morakot was likely to continue growing in strength and become a super typhoon.

China is frequently affected by tropical storms in summer. The most destructive one recently occurred in 2006, when super typhoon Saomai claimed more than 400 lives.

ChinaDaily
good evening guys im just here to give you a quick update of what is actually going on this season...well we have a very strong el nino out in the pacific this will contiue to increase the shear in the caribbean sea for august and september..it is going to be very difficult to get anything to develop in the caribbean until mid september thru october..the conditions should allow for some development at that time..the dust continues to hamper the development off the african coast..i really cant see to much of a cape verde season this year guys it just has to many factors out there killing off the waves that try to develop in the dry air....sst off the coast are quite a bit cooler then this time last year also..the only type of tropical activity looks like to me it will be in the gom due to a stalled front..i will be watching the gulf quite closely starting next week...thats really the latest info i have from my office as of 9pm this evening..to put it in a nutshell things are locked in place and unlikely to change for the rest of august in the atlantic and caribbean...i will be back early next week to give you another update on the GOM...have a great night guys and try to get along with one another...again 456 is doing and excellent job in this room and i salute him for a job well done...Stormno
Tennis Girl ... Look at the Wave that just emerged off africa ... it has cyclonic turning
Quoting whitewabit:
HGW... do you know what the surge forecast for it is???


Often for Taiwan the biggest issue isn't surge, it's flash flooding. The mountains that run north south down the center of the island tend to ring out a lot of rain which then goes down the mountain and causes land slips.

One of the storms last fall there produced 1.6 meters (approx 5.25 feet) of rain in a town.
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Tennis Girl ... Look at the Wave that just emerged off africa ... it has cyclonic turning
don't look to hard, conditions just aren't there...you'll have better luck watching your watch spin.
Yikes!
PAGASA has wind of 95 knots now >.<
I am starting to believe that the forecasters were right in calling for a low CV season and more "homegrown" storms.

While I agree with that, the calendar isn't quite yet to the point at which we usually get any real CV developments (in most years). Wait until mid-Sept before you jump off that bridge.

July and August have CV waves that act just like these have in most years.
AUGS 6th all is well


No name storm yet


looks like Noaa all most went with my hurricane forcast wish was 5 name storm 2 hurricane and 0 cat 3 or higher hurricane
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "KIKO" has gained more strength as it continues to threaten Taiwan.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #11
============================
At 11:00 AM PhST, Typhoon Kiko (Morakot) located at 23.8°N 122.6°E or 350 km north northeast of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 175 km/h (95 knots) with gustiness of 210 km/h (110 knots).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Batanes
2.Northern Cagayan
3.Apayao
4.Ilocos Norte

Additional Information
=====================
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 1,590 kms East of Northern Luzon (19.6°N, 140.0°E).

Typhoon "KIKO" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over Luzon and Western Visayas.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 5 PM today.

----
Pressure from ship reports is 948 hPa

THREE HOURLY WEATHER REPORTS TO WEATHER MANILA PD

WEATHER MANILA=
Quoting Tazmanian:
AUGS 6th all is well


No name storm yet


looks like Noaa all most went with my hurricane forcast wish was 5 name storm 2 hurricane and 0 cat 3 or higher hurricane


They said 7-11. They'll be right if we have 11 named, which we most likely will.
<>img src="http://expr $number 1running date-time-group 2009080618
echo $ddtg | cut -c1-4echo $ddtg | cut -c5-6echo $ddtg | cut -c7-8gridnl.2009080618
&gridnl
kka = 30,
ma = 97,223,61,
na = 61,199,97,
nnest = 1,
nbdya = 7,
nbdypt= 7,
ico_sp= 0,
npgrid= 1,1,1,
lmbc = 16,
iaero = 0,
nestcc= 2,
mspc = 1,
mbin = 1,
ldigit= f,
/
run coamps analysis
/home/Models/coamps2_backup/coamps2.0/bin/coamps_analysis.exe log.a.NGLI.2009080618

real 0m12.85s
user 0m49.53s
sys 0m1.12s

-----------------------
analysis complete .....
-----------------------

run coamps forecast
/home/Models/coamps2_backup/coamps2.0/bin/coamps_forecast.exe log.m.NGLI.2009080618

real 0m0.00s
user 0m0.00s
sys 0m0.00s
There is a CRDATE environmental parameter. Its contents = 2009080618
.
The DTG is 2009080618.
" alt="" />
That was supposed to be an image, but funny scripting and code on my clipboard (as paste URL, but it wasn't a URL)...I'll leave it.

Taz Don't DownCast.... ...... .... I ama go with 10,4,1 and your gonna have to eat crow if im right =)
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Taz Don't DownCast.... ...... .... I ama go with 10,4,1 and your gonna have to eat crow if im right =)



your not my BOSS dont tell me what to do i will downcast when evere i want and that is in fac my forcast
Quoting CybrTeddy:


They said 7-11. They'll be right if we have 11 named, which we most likely will.



whats see if we can even get too 5 name storms 1st
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Warning #32
TYPHOON MORAKOT (T0908)
12:00 PM JST August 7 2009
=========================================

Subject: Category Three Typhoon In Sea South of Okinawa

At 3:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Morakot (945 hPa) located at 23.7N 122.5E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 115 knots. The typhoon is reported as west-northwest at 11 knots

RSMC Dvorak Intensity:

Storm-force Winds
==================
120 NM from the center

Gale-force Winds
================
350 NM from the center

Forecast and Intensity
=========================
24 HRS: 25.3N 120.8E - 65 knots (CAT 3/Typhoon)
45 HRS: 26.2N 119.3E - 55 knots (CAT 2/Severe Tropical Storm)
69 HRS: 27.7N 117.5E - 45 knots (CAT 1/Tropical Storm)
It's likely we'll see at least 8 named storms. El Nino is not as strong as some are putting it out to be.

I think we'll get 10/5/2, just like 2006.
Quoting KoritheMan:
It's likely we'll see at least 8 named storms. El Nino is not as strong as some are putting it out to be.

I think we'll get 10/5/2, just like 2006.



IM me
Quoting Tazmanian:



IM me


I'm about to watch TV, mate. You did say Saturday, after all, did you not?
Quoting KoritheMan:


I'm about to watch TV, mate. You did say Saturday, after all, did you not?



that was beofor there been a sight ch in plans i wont be in tell may be next weekend
Before you predict, 5, 10, 7 or whatever...how about one named Atlantic storm? It does look like a wave will be coming off of Afrika soon.
>
Anyway, goodnight.

Link
The area between 40 and 45W is currently under some low shear, but it's also in the ITCZ.
how about this why not we see if we can get too 5 name storms 1st and then will see how many more will get


far evere one???
Taz I Respect Your Opion as I Respect Everyones.. But... The NOAA are very conservtive and they pick 11 ... were only 35%-40% way thou the season .... I excpect 3 storms to be in the atlantic at 1 time...... The point is take a chill pill.... =\
Does Morakot have an estimated minimum central pressure?
Hey Ike,
Maybe you can sleep in I have a feeling ECMWF, GFS don't show anything in next few days :)
Quoting Tazmanian:



whats see if we can even get too 5 name storms 1st


Your going to be in for quite a surprise I believe.
Remember 1997 taz? Yea, they had 8 named storms and the conditions there were WAY more hostile than this year, they had an very strong El Nino. 2006 had 10 named storms and they had a stronger El Nino. 13 named is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Not attacking your opinion Taz, I think its alright, but I think you might be in for a surprise. :)
Morakot estimated central pressures

945 hPa from JMA
948 hPa from PAGASA
954 hPa from Hawaii (JTWC)
955 hPa from Hong Kong
955 hPa from Tawain (CWB)
960 hPa from Korea
I figured that Morakot's large circulation would prevent rapid intensification, which is very fortunate. Taiwan doesn't need another typhoon for awhile after Sinlaku.
HadesGodWyvern, thanks for the info! It's too bad no one does recon in the westpac anymore. Maybe China can afford it now
TRMM rainfall for the last 24hrs in the region of Morakot.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your going to be in for quite a surprise I believe.
Remember 1997 taz? Yea, they had 8 named storms and the conditions there were WAY more hostile than this year, they had an very strong El Nino. 2006 had 10 named storms and they had a stronger El Nino. 13 named is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Not attacking your opinion Taz, I think its alright, but I think you might be in for a surprise. :)



2006 was no EL Nino that EL Nino was crap for CA has far has winter gos
HGW... what do you think the pressure is???
StSimon:

Taiwan still does dropsonds, but they stopped last night
around 950 hPa seems to be popular estimate
Hades what's the website for the Taiwanese radiosonde drops?
That's pretty deep--but westpac storms are usually have lower pressures for a given wind than Atlantic storms
heh just looked at the last recon that Guam did in the WPAC

Typhoon Jangmi.. wonder why they could afford to do it this year..
This is a cloudsat of the west side of 90W the storm just to the east of Morakot. I can see why it was upgraded to good chance..



This same trip around the globe caught the mid ATL area right in the middle. Click on the pic & then the yellow box #17 to see it.
Quoting CybrTeddy:


Your going to be in for quite a surprise I believe.
Remember 1997 taz? Yea, they had 8 named storms and the conditions there were WAY more hostile than this year, they had an very strong El Nino. 2006 had 10 named storms and they had a stronger El Nino. 13 named is certainly not out of the realm of possibility. Not attacking your opinion Taz, I think its alright, but I think you might be in for a surprise. :)


1997 had also had 4 named storms by this time of the year too; 2006 had already had 3. However, I do agree with you that anything is possible. We may all be in for a surprise this year; I have a feeling September and October may be a lot more active than any one thinks.
Quoting Tazmanian:



2006 was no EL Nino that EL Nino was crap for CA has far has winter gos


2006 had a pretty strong and rapidly strengthening El Nino
HadesGodWyvern, thanks!
you're welcome
TD Goni appears to be in the Gulf of Tonkin now.

Quoting BurnedAfterPosting:


2006 had a pretty strong and rapidly strengthening El Nino



hmmm then why did CA not feel any thing from it
by the way the El Niño Advisory has been updated


Link


Large area of Typhoon Force Winds

by the way this map should update every hour now that the southern islands of Japan is being affected by the cyclone.
Quoting Tazmanian:



2006 was no EL Nino that EL Nino was crap for CA has far has winter gos


according to the NHC, that was a moderate El Nino event.
658. 7544
looks like our litttle wave is going to make another run for money tonight its already starting to get dress again right before dmax will it make it this time stay tuned

also i believe that this season for somereason systems will be forming very close to land just like the key west blob did today
Quoting sky1989:


1997 had also had 4 named storms by this time of the year too; 2006 had already had 3. However, I do agree with you that anything is possible. We may all be in for a surprise this year; I have a feeling September and October may be a lot more active than any one thinks.


El Nino years tend to start out fast and end slow.
El Nino Modiki years seem to not, some how this year's acting like a Modiki year.
Quoting Tazmanian:



hmmm then why did CA not feel any thing from it


There are other climate factors in play besides El Nino. You can't just focus on one thing. It's a scientific fact that an El Nino occurred in 2006...regardless of what the effects were elsewhere.
Scale: Large
Intensity: Strong (Typhoon)
Center 23.5°N 122.3°E
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum winds: 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gusts: 60m/s(115kt)
Storm Force Winds Area 200km(110NM)
Gale Force Winds Area 650km(350NM)

---
pressure rising again
We might see numerous storms in a few weeks period shortly once that MJO returns. We might see a storm a week.
seems to be a little going on between 40-55w. that area has been flaring up for 3 days now, and just won't quit. if any of that drifts into the carribean, does it stand a chance?
665. 7544
Quoting JRRP:
Link


ouch thats what i call catching up if it does hold
666. JRRP
When really you will die??
667. JRRP
Quoting 7544:


ouch thats what i call catching up if it does hold

well.....
Quoting StormW:
Good night all.

KEY WEST LONG RANGE DOPPLER


Lol. Thanks alot Storm! Put that up and go to bed. Oh well. Good night. :)
Quoting StormW:


I'm still here...just gettin ready to shutdown.


Oh no. I'm sorry. Was just picking. Didn't want to keep you up. Does look interesting on that radar though.
Yuck! I don't like Nuttin' about this...

RAIN CHANCES WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE ON SATURDAY AS A DISTURBANCE TREKS NW ACRS THE GULF
TOWARD LA. CHC POPS WILL CONTINUE ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS THE
DISTURBANCE MOVES NORTH AND THE UPPER HIGH BECOMES CENTERED OVER
THE SERN STATES...ALLOWING MOIST SRLY FLOW TO DEEPEN. WITH
INCREASED CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION...TEMPS WILL TREND CLOSER TO OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

The rain will probaly miss Texas again. Lol
Is that an Upper Level Low in the GOM N.W. of Key West???? It looks like it/? It's the best spin I have seen in the GOM so far this hurricane season,lol..Link
Scale: Large
Intensity: Strong
Center position 23.5°N 122.1°E
Central pressure: 955hPa
Maximum winds: 40m/s(75kt)

Maximum wind gusts:55m/s(105kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more Wide 200km(110NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more Wide 650km(350NM)
The CATL blob is looking good tonight

Quoting weatherwatcher12:
The CATL blob is looking good tonight



Will have a hell of a time with dry air.
Lol. I agree Chucky. I hope its upper level and stays that way. Specially if its tracking NW in the gulf. New Orleans calls it an INVERTED TROUGH. Not sure what that is. lol
681. 7544
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
The CATL blob is looking good tonight



agree and dmax is coming up in one hour . this might pull a fast one by the am
unless the dry air holds it back
Well, the SAL seems to be diminishing some
Quoting homelesswanderer:
Lol. I agree Chucky. I hope its upper level and stays that way. Specially if its tracking NW in the gulf. New Orleans calls it an INVERTED TROUGH. Not sure what that is. lol


Given that it is forecast to track inland into Louisiana by Saturday, I would think that if it posed any significant threat of tropical cyclogenesis, the NHC would've at least put a yellow circle on it.

I haven't taken the time to thoroughly analyze the area myself, though, but if it becomes an area of interest per the NHC or the majority of credible bloggers here, then I'll begin to take more interest.
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
Well, the SAL seems to be diminishing some


True, but even that level of SAL is enough to inhibit a disturbance from developing, particularly when the coverage of SAL is quite large.
edited because I was wrong. :)
Quoting homelesswanderer:


Uh huh. Okay you do that. But since it is the most interesting thing in the gulf as yet I'll take interest in it now. :)


lol I'm in southeast Louisiana and I'm not even worried in the least. >_>

I'm not saying not to watch the area, since any area of thunderstorms bears watching during hurricane season, but I highly doubt anything will come of this area.
And one day I'll learn how to fix that bold thing. Lol.
Don't mind me Kor. I'm just old and cranky. Took it the wrong way. I apologize.
Is the CATL blob in dmax yet?
the catl blob isn't just a blob, but a string of them, one of which isn't far from the islands and out of reach of the SAL. not sure how the conditions up ahead are for it/them though.
Quoting frostynugs:
the catl blob isn't just a blob, but a string of them, one of which isn't far from the islands and out of reach of the SAL. not sure how the conditions up ahead are for it/them though.


Will be interesting to see if they can begin to organize.. what are you doing up? Enjoying the frosty nugs? :)
Quoting frostynugs:
the catl blob isn't just a blob, but a string of them, one of which isn't far from the islands and out of reach of the SAL. not sure how the conditions up ahead are for it/them though.


This shows you the sheer steering and precip. Comparing models. If you can make heads or tails of them. Hope it helps. :)

Link
Quoting weatherwatcher12:
The CATL blob is looking good tonight




tonight
694. 7544
Quoting Alockwr21:
Is the CATL blob in dmax yet?


yes as of 3 am est just checked the blob and its grwoing bigger at this hour lloks like 2 blobs may become one big one soon and all the bloggers might be saying whattttt
if it can avoid some dry air
former (and maybe again) TD Goni has a track that would make Phil Niekro jealous and has seemingly lasted longer too.

Definitely getting the "subsidence" from Morakot here in HK. Air has gone dead, lots of sunshine bathing the voluminous amounts of air pollution that is trapped in town. Also hot. Took a photo of a public thermometer reading this afternoon of 37C (with a snowflake).

TyphoonHunter tweeted he's driven further north along the eastern coast of Taiwan through hurricane strength gusts and crazy downpours on a road that's pretty treacherous in good weather.
Morning

Models say nothing new for the atlantic for the next 3 days
Philippines Atmospherical Geophysical Astronomical Services and Administration

Typhoon "KIKO" has slightly weakened as it continues to move towards Taiwan.

Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #12
============================
At 5:00 PM PhST, Typhoon Kiko (Morakot) located at 23.4°N 121.7°E or 290 km north of Basco, Batanes has 10 minute sustained winds of 140 km/h (75 knots) with gustiness of 175 km/h (95 knots).

Signal Warnings
==================

Signal Warning #1 (30-60 kph winds)

Luzon Region
------------
1.Batanes
2.Northern Cagayan
3.Apayao
4.Ilocos Norte

Additional Information
=====================
Meanwhile, a Low Pressure Area (LPA) was estimated based on satellite and surface data at 1,580 kms (19.8°N, 139.7°E)

Typhoon "KIKO" will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon and bring occasional rains over the rest of Luzon and Western Visayas.

Residents in low lying areas and near mountain slopes are advised to take all the necessary precautionary measures against possible flashfloods and landslides.

The public and the disaster coordinating councils concerned are advised to take appropriate actions and watch for the next bulletin to be issued at 11 PM today.

---
pressure is now 967 hPA.

quite a difference six hours can make. Pressure was 948 at 0000am UTC
698. IKE
Found this from this mornings San Juan,PR discussion....

"TROP ATLC CONTINUES TO REMAIN VERY QUIET WITH NO THREAT AREAS TO
DISCUSS. LATEST 200 MB VELOCITY ANOMALIES FROM THE 06/00Z RUN
FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TROP ATLC THROUGH AUGUST 20 AND WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING
THAT SAL EVENTS DO NOT DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THE LAST WEEK
OF AUGUST WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WEEKS
BEFORE THINGS CAN GET MORE EXCITING ACROSS THE TROP ATLC."

hello HadesGodWyvern,

Thats good at least not land a CAT2
Quoting IKE:
Found this from this mornings San Juan,PR discussion....

"TROP ATLC CONTINUES TO REMAIN VERY QUIET WITH NO THREAT AREAS TO
DISCUSS. LATEST 200 MB VELOCITY ANOMALIES FROM THE 06/00Z RUN
FROM THE GFS CONTINUE TO INDICATE UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE TROP ATLC THROUGH AUGUST 20 AND WITH CLIMATOLOGY INDICATING
THAT SAL EVENTS DO NOT DIMINISH SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL THE LAST WEEK
OF AUGUST WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE TO WAIT ANOTHER COUPLE OF WEEKS
BEFORE THINGS CAN GET MORE EXCITING ACROSS THE TROP ATLC."



Yeah is the el niño year, also anti-cyclone push all waves to the itcz.
I just laughed that JTWC just upgraded to CAT 2, 4 hours ago though

according to JMA it peaked at 80 knots or around 90 knots JTWC standard
80 x 1.15 = 92

JTWC should have had the cyclone around 95 knots
WTCI RCTP 070900 =
WARNING VALID 080900Z =
WARNING IS UPDATED EVERY 3 HOURS =
TYPHOON 200908 (MORAKOT 200908) WARNING =
POSITION 070900Z AT TWO THREE POINT FIVE NORTH ( 23.5N ) ONE TWO TWO POINT THREE EAST ( 122.3E ) =
MOVEMENT NEXT 24HRS NNW 11KM/HR
MIN SURFACE PRESSURE 955 HPA =
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR CENTER 40 METER PER SECOND GUST 50 METER PER SECOND =



---
Still 80 knots from CWB


Felicia with Enrique.. now there is quick weakening
Yeah fortunatly for Hawaii!
706. IKE
NHC has the low back in the CATL at 40w.
yes but no future


what the heck Goni, you swan, trying to become a cyclone again and hit Vietnam now?
45w wave! shows what some of the regulars on this blogs know. over rate themselves. they doomed it yesteday. its got along way to go but the windward island need to keep an eye on it
4.2.1
712. P451
As I, a couple of others, Dr. M, and history itself has tried to tell those who thought Hawaii was in danger. It wasn't. Cooler water has already taken her down. Next up will be the shear.

Again, this is what happens to every storm that tries to advance on the islands from the East.

Not sure why some thought otherwise. This is not the Atlantic. There are many different factors in the area from Hawaii to 1000 miles east of her that causes it to be a hurricane graveyard.

But, well, I guess the wishcasters just wouldn't have common sense spoken to them the past few days.

Not sure why....

Again, please read why:

Link

And you'll see what some of us were talking about and why we were so steadfast in saying that Felicia had zero chance of hitting Hawaii as anything more than a minor tropical storm. The way it's going it might not even be a depression by then.

All Hawaii is concerned about in regards to Felicia are how convective it's remnants are and how much flooding rain they could receive.

still over 1000 miles away from hi its doomed it will probally be and remain a td on its passage through the island
714. IKE
For what it's worth...6Z GFS...shows very little of significance in the Atlantic through August 23rd.


00Z ECMWF...doesn't show much of anything the next 10 days....through August 17th.


00Z UKMET


00Z CMC
ike is the dagger of reality! no development through next wk
MARINE WEATHER DISCUSSION

ANOTHER WAVE IN THE CENTRAL ATLC PRESENTS THE MOST UNCERTAINTY AS IT HAS A HISTORY OF INDUCING SMALL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION WHICH HAS BEEN RE-INTRODUCED ON THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS. LATEST GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE AGAIN HINTS AT SOME FORM OF A LOW TRACKING WNW WITH THE TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.



Click on image to view original size in a new window



Ooooh, plenty of rain and thunderstorms coming to Trinidad below and Barbados above.

Is this wave trying to skirt the SAL by dipping below Barbados, towards Trinidad?

SAL ended just to the Southern tip of Barbados, last map I saw.

Ah well, real rainy weekend here in Barbados.
morning
CATL wave looks intereting this morning, flare up of convection with more than one vortice in the area shear is about 5-10 knots over the system ,with 20 knots northeast shear. the system is carrying a 1012 mb low , as it moves to the west. the only inhibiting factor is the dry air to the west and north of the system. conditions are expected to get a little better as the system moves towards the windwards, where sst will be warmer and a little more moisture as it moves closer to the islands. this system will be monitored as in the tropics conditions could change so dramatically.
Quoting P451:
As I, a couple of others, Dr. M, and history itself has tried to tell those who thought Hawaii was in danger. It wasn't. Cooler water has already taken her down. Next up will be the shear.

Again, this is what happens to every storm that tries to advance on the islands from the East.

Not sure why some thought otherwise. This is not the Atlantic. There are many different factors in the area from Hawaii to 1000 miles east of her that causes it to be a hurricane graveyard.

But, well, I guess the wishcasters just wouldn't have common sense spoken to them the past few days.

Not sure why....

Again, please read why:

Link

And you'll see what some of us were talking about and why we were so steadfast in saying that Felicia had zero chance of hitting Hawaii as anything more than a minor tropical storm. The way it's going it might not even be a depression by then.

All Hawaii is concerned about in regards to Felicia are how convective it's remnants are and how much flooding rain they could receive.



Incredible! Went to bed last night like it was Christmas Eve...wondering if Felicia would indeed be dying come the dawn.

I'll never doubt the Doc again. Fantastic forecasting! Great present on August 7th! Although a trip to Hawaii would've been pretty cool, I'd have to have gone without my wife. We've been there twice on honeymoons. Bad Karma to go without her! :(

So I get to stay home, do some chores, save some money and vacation time...

IT'S A GREAT 0,0,0 DAY! :)
720. IKE
I see that low near 12N and 46W on that graph posted.

Shear looks favorable...

Quoting IKE:
For what it's worth...6Z GFS...shows very little of significance in the Atlantic through August 23rd.


00Z ECMWF...doesn't show much of anything the next 10 days....through August 17th.


00Z UKMET


00Z CMC


Should the models be believed though???
722. IKE
Quoting sporteguy03:


Should the models be believed though???


I wouldn't believe the GFS or CMC.

ECMWF yes...
by tomorrow morning we will know if the 45w does pop. the old hope rule probally will come into play
724. Relix
Man that wave really knows how to put up a fight haha
725. IKE
Quoting IKE:
I see that low near 12N and 46W on that graph posted.

Shear looks favorable...



That wave seems to have taken on the motto... If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.

Seems dry air would be the biggest issue at this time, plus no model support.
Quoting IKE:


I wouldn't believe the GFS or CMC.

ECMWF yes...


I guess so although August 23rd is a ways off hard to believe that there will be zero activity will be happening as the season approaches the peak.
728. IKE
6Z NOGAPS.....spins that low up a little. Not much when you compare what it does in the east-Pac on this run.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That wave seems to have taken on the motto... If at first you don't succeed, try, try again.

Seems dry air would be the biggest issue at this time, plus no model support.
the wave doesnt know from model support.
730. IKE
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


That wave seems to have taken on the motto... If a first you don't succeed, try, try again.

Seems dry air would be the biggest issue at this time, plus no model support.


Wave looks to hang around a few days.

Yeah, the models don't do much with it.

It is a survivor.
731. P451
732. Relix
Could this be a Jeanne like scenario? She developed at the last time in front of the windwards.
733. IKE
Quoting hunkerdown:
the wave doent know from model support.


Good point.

Isn't every forecast based on models? NAO...MJO...El Nino...NHC discussions on developed systems....

I understand what you're saying though...yes, models can be wrong.
Quoting IKE:


Good point.

Isn't every forecast based on models? NAO...MJO...El Nino...NHC discussions on developed systems....

I understand what you're saying though...yes. models can be wrong.
I agree with you here...my point is the wave will have to battle the dry air but the wave, itself, will not have to "battle" what the models predict. Kind of vice versa in that respect.
G'morning IKE

TPC keeps as a low through 72 hours



Click on image to view original size in a new window



737. P451
The CATL disturbance continues to press forward. My question with it is less about short term development and more of will it wind up energizing another disturbance further west or northwest in say five days? Anywhere from the Bahamas to the Gulf to the WCar.
738. IKE
From the 8:05 am EDST discussion....

...THE ITCZ...

FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 15N38W 11N56W. WHAT APPEARS
TO BE A SECOND ITCZ...AND/OR A SECOND OF LINE OF SURFACE
CONFLUENT WIND FLOW...IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRST ONE ALONG
10N14W 9N23W 7N34W 7N41W 7N50W 6N56W. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE
THAT THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM YESTERDAY CLEARLY
SHOW THAT THE WIND FLOW FROM THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD BLOWS RIGHT
PAST THE 10N14W 6N56W LINE TOWARD THE 11N15W 11N56W LINE...GIVING
THE IMPRESSION THAT THE NORTHERN-MORE LINE IS THE ITCZ. STRONG
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN CLUSTERS FROM 10N TO 13N
BETWEEN 44W AND 57W. SCATTERED MODERATE SHOWERS TO ISOLATED
STRONG THUNDERSTORMS ARE FROM 6N TO 8N BETWEEN 48W AND 53W.
ISOLATED MODERATE SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS ARE
ELSEWHERE FROM 6N TO 11N BETWEEN AFRICA AND 44W. STRONG SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE IN THE COASTAL WATERS OF AFRICA FROM
13N TO 17N...POSSIBLY/PROBABLY WITH THE NEXT TROPICAL WAVE.


They don't mention a low.
Morning...
Morning Wx,..the Low Running "Low" continues to chug west seems.
451 got a map with water temps. 50w to windwards like the one you just posted.
can someone bring me the yellow crayon
morning ike heres a model forecast for ya

by the next full moon the first of three will have bloomed and the cv islands is where one should not be lookin west of the windwards is where they will be a lurkin
744. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
morning ike heres a model forecast for ya

by the next full moon the first of three will have bloomed and the cv islands is where one should not be lookin west of the windwards is where they will come


Closer to home huh.

When is the next full moon?
first week of sept
746. IKE
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
first week of sept


LOL...one is today.

You're talking Sept. 4th...you think there's a shot at a blank in August?
Good morning

The 8:58 UTC surface analysis issued by the NHC shows a 1012 mb low and maintains it moving slightly S of due W beyond 50W in the short term. This would be in in keeping with the Quikscat pass this morning.

As I have posted before, this area and all the way to 63W is known as a resurgence zone for weak or dying systems and may give a boost to " the little wave that could ".

This one has sure kept us guessing !

Surface map
Hi Pat...

TW @45 appears to be an "energizer bunny". You know the saying... hehe.

It has to its favor weak VORT signatures at all levels.

Moving into favorable conditions... with an upper level anticyclone in the Lee and Windward Islands being enhanced by the TUTT NNW of Hispanola.

Shear is low and tendencies are down.

As it was mentioned dry air might be an inhibiting factor but if its able to build convection ahead of it or the convection already in front of it is able to gain some latitude then it might have a chance as NOGAPS is forecasting... and that intensity is perfect for this type of system if it were to materialized as conditions are good but not that optimal.
29 days from today we go Full again with Luna
Morning... KMan...
Quoting WxLogic:
Morning... KMan...


Good morning. About to grab some coffee and hit the gym. Only 6:30 here LOL
752. P451
Quoting Patrap:
29 days from today we go Full again with Luna


I tossed and turned all night. Got up around 530 and took the morning walk, looked up, and said, well... that'll explain that.

Beautiful sight a full moon at dawn. Then the sunrise on the walk back home.

Nice 60 degree morning here in Jersey.

Couldn't ask for a better start to the day. Could have used more sleep though. :/

Quoting kmanislander:


Good morning. About to grab some coffee and hit the gym. Only 6:30 here LOL


Hey I'm all for that... GYM is definitely a must.
Quoting IKE:


LOL...one is today.

You're talking Sept. 4th...you think there's a shot at a blank in August?
first comes the last week of august with two more the first week of sept thats what i see anyway
755. IKE
Quoting P451:


I tossed and turned all night. Got up around 530 and took the morning walk, looked up, and said, well... that'll explain that.

Beautiful sight a full moon at dawn. Then the sunrise on the walk back home.

Nice 60 degree morning here in Jersey.

Couldn't ask for a better start to the day. Could have used more sleep though. :/



Springsteen country...
full moon you can be really unlucky. the persistant tw could be a kman problem i dont see it turning nw
757. IKE
Guess the NHC isn't impressed.....

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI AUG 7 2009

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
Well, well, well.
Would you look at that! Big change overnight with the area east of the southern Caribbean islands. This will fill the resevoirs a bit, this weekend!
Quoting potteryX:
Well, well, well.
Would you look at that! Big change overnight with the area east of the southern Caribbean islands. This will fill the resevoirs a bit, this weekend!
rains a coming the barrels will be full
FYI, in case anyone is interested, the last direct hit we had in Barbados was Janet, 1955.

We had brushed with Allen and David, I remember huge trees (like fifteen foot diameter trunks)pulled out of the ground like grass, even though we were only brushed.

However, apparently the very worst hurricane to hit Barbados and the other islands was the Great Hurricane of 1780.

It is alleged winds were over 200mph.

This may sound ridiculous, but it is stated in the notes, that the wind stripped the bark off trees!? 'The winds stripped the bark off trees before the hurricane downed every tree on the island'.

It claimed 27,500 lives in the islands (unheard of), a fleet of 40 French ships in Martinique were capsized. 19 Dutch ships in Grenada were wrecked.

This storm was out of this world.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Great_Hurricane_of_1780

Let's hope we never see the likes of this.
As to the tropics erupting soon,.."I believe,I believe"..
"morning Kman, can I have some coffee please. I find that there is no real coffee in this house this morning, just something that claims to be Hazel Nut Creme Flavoured Coffee. Dread stuff, man.
12N 47W is the focal point to follow W

Back in a while
hurricanes can strip the land of everything including all life so that nothing remains but the dirt and water
Quoting potteryX:
"morning Kman, can I have some coffee please. I find that there is no real coffee in this house this morning, just something that claims to be Hazel Nut Creme Flavoured Coffee. Dread stuff, man.


Morning. Add a little 151 proof. That will improve the flavour LOL

Back soon
Morning - Keeper...got to agree w/ all you say.....

you got a direct connection w/MaNature's Calender Planner or does she whisper in your ear??
765, you misunderstood. I want to stimulate the brain, not create an explosion.
768. P451
Cira FirstLook
CATL Wave
From the surface up to 30KM

769. IKE
When Ivan went through Grenada, many Nutmeg trees were stripped of their bark. It seems that there were many mini-tornados that twisted the trees and unscrewed the top from the main trunk, taking the bark with it. Peculiar..
Morning all

Add a little 151 proof. That will improve the flavour

Now that's not playing around is it kman? lmao
morning surf and all nah just this am feeling a little fiesty as for the moon first week of sept will be the last full moon of summer the next will be the first of the fall moons after that and with it the first early frosts
770. Pottery

That is something I only heard of recently, the mini tornados in hurricanes, I never thought of it before.

Quite scary and maybe explains why there are seem to be some houses out of one area ripped apart, but some remain fine?

Seems like both of us have some serious rain coming in?

Cheers,

Baje
Good Morning, Surfy. Missed your post there somehow. Must of been the 151 proof stuff that Kman sent.
Hope you are doing good.
775. IKE
Get well soon Steven....dream on:)



Looks like a wet one for true, Baje. Stay out of those gullies LOL
1735 Loop:

Pardon me, sorry do not want to sound alarmist or premature, but does the third 'blob' in that loop, look to be pulling a rotation? Is that where it will pull together, if it does?
Wave looks remarkable this morning. As thunderstorms increase, a weak circulation will become more evident.
Futuremet,

So, will the main portion go between Barbados and Trinidad or come over us?

How is it looking?
780. IKE
A lot of the convection out ahead of the low near 12N and 46W looks to graze the SA coast.
Quoting IKE:
A lot of the convection out ahead of the low near 12N and 46W looks to graze the SA coast.


Means Pottery is going to have to get out the rubber boots and raincoat, or stay inside and drink the 171 proof that he mentions.

Slowly I hope.
Also, the wave now on the African coast has a lot of damp air in front of it, if it keeps westerly. And the SAL is in retreat.
Is the Atlantic waking up?
Good Full Moon Friday!

Interesting NHC discussion about the two-stranded ICTZ.
"...FROM THE AFRICA COAST NEAR 11N15W TO 15N38W 11N56W. WHAT APPEARS TO BE A SECOND ITCZ...AND/OR A SECOND OF LINE OF SURFACE
CONFLUENT WIND FLOW...IS TO THE SOUTH OF THE FIRST ONE ALONG 10N14W 9N23W 7N34W 7N41W 7N50W 6N56W. IT IS INTERESTING TO NOTE THAT THE LAST VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM YESTERDAY CLEARLY SHOW THAT THE WIND FLOW FROM THE EQUATOR NORTHWARD BLOWS RIGHT PAST THE 10N14W 6N56W LINE TOWARD THE 11N15W 11N56W LINE...GIVING THE IMPRESSION THAT THE NORTHERN-MORE LINE IS THE ITCZ..."
Quoting potteryX:
Also, the wave now on the African coast has a lot of damp air in front of it, if it keeps westerly. And the SAL is in retreat.
Is the Atlantic waking up?


Coming onto mid-August and it looks so.
785. IKE
Quoting bajelayman2:


Means Pottery is going to have to get out the rubber boots and raincoat, or stay inside and drink the 171 proof that he mentions.

Slowly I hope.


He live on the island furthest south? And a little east?
Ike, Trinidad. 11n 61w
Quoting futuremet:
Wave looks remarkable this morning. As thunderstorms increase, a weak circulation will become more evident.
how many blunts have you smoked this morning?
788. IKE
Quoting potteryX:
Ike, Trinidad. 11n 61w


That's what I was thinking. You've got rain moving in within a few hours. Probably afternoon on...
Felicia looks to be fading nicely. Will be depression or remenant low when passing the Big Island to the South as projected by NHC this morning. Mauna Loa will ring it dry of any moisture that strays Northward.
Quoting PORTCHARLOTTE72:
how many blunts have you smoked this morning?
It's too early for the insults and he is very knowledgable.
Quoting potteryX:
Looks like a wet one for true, Baje. Stay out of those gullies LOL


Good Morning all, Potery, I have to agree it looks like it will be a wet one for the southern Islands. I have been watching the area kman is pointig out, some rotation was evident this am.
792. IKE
Quoting msphar:
Felicia looks to be fading nicely. Will be depression or remenant low when passing the Big Island to the South as projected by NHC this morning. Mauna Loa will ring it dry of any moisture that strays Northward.


Discussion doesn't even mention Hawaii now.
blunt? not really sure what it is? is it tobacco mixed with weed? i would gag maybe drop dead afterwards
The five day forecast path shows it.
788. Yeah. I hope its later, as I fly from Tobago to Trinidad at 4:20 pm. It's a bumpy ride over the 3000 ft Northern Range at the best of times in a Dash 8.
Alright guys, I am heading out for the day, have a good one.

Baje.
797. IKE
Quoting msphar:
The five day forecast path shows it.


Yeah...I saw that. I wasn't doubting you, just pointing out that the NHC doesn't mention Hawaii once in the latest discussion, which was surprising.
Stay dry, Bajan.
799. IKE
Quoting leftovers:
blunt? not really sure what it is? is it tobacco mixed with weed? i would gag maybe drop dead afterwards


You take a cigar....empty tobacco...insert MJ....el smoko...
Pottery, sorry for the mis spelling, had a hard night... lol and the talk about 151proof in the coffee had me........
Appreciate the clarification, Ike, I do have concerns for the Big Island but it seems to take good care of itself.
No problem, Gwadaman.
It's too early to even think of 151 proof stuff LOL.
Unless you are trying to remove paint or something....
804. IKE
Quoting msphar:
Appreciate the clarification, Ike, I do have concerns for the Big Island but it seems to take good care of itself.


They look to be okay. I wonder if recon is still going in to a dying hurricane?
thanks ike think i rather drink kalula or cafe liquior.
Nice image, Keeper.
Amazing storm surge photography and video!
Thanks for posting about the site.
Quoting potteryX:
Nice image, Keeper.
if it holds together should get a fair bit of rain out of it for ya
809. IKE
I don't see any turning anywhere in that mass of clouds heading for the lower islands.
I thought that RECON mission sounded like a science gathering mission with the possibility of a little R&R at Hickham. Nice duty if you can get it during an August.
Quoting potteryX:
No problem, Gwadaman.
It's too early to even think of 151 proof stuff LOL.
Unless you are trying to remove paint or something....


We have relocated back to Barbados from Guadloupe, so will be riding out the season here, have a good flight, catch you on later......


heres the entire lenght of it
Good morning...

The tropical wave in the ITCZ looks somewhat interesting this morning. Currently there is a developing area of vorticity on the extreme eastern side of the convection which can be seen on the CIMSS vort maps. The disturbance looks to have gained some convection last night due to the DMAX and is not done developing it at this time. The wave is moving along a large area of SAL that is weakening and lifting a bit north. Despite somewhat favorable SAL, a large amount of stable air looks to be right over the wave and to its north. Shear is a favorable 5-10 knots over the wave and looks to stay that way for a few days. The wave should begin to move out of the ITCZ by tomorrow and continue towards the islands by Sunday or Monday. As of now conditions seem favorable for some slow development...if any at all. This is just an area to watch..actually the only area to watch at the moment.

Sorry for the poor illustration...Im having some trouble with Photoshop.
Looking at the windshear maps. The clouds are in favourable to low shear for another couple hundred miles. But there is a jetstream set-up just east of Trinidad, that could blow a lot of the moisture to the N/E just before it gets here.
Am I reading this right?
815. IKE
System is moving along pretty fast....
Quoting IKE:


They look to be okay. I wonder if recon is still going in to a dying hurricane?


The high altitude NOAA jet Gonzo has been releasing dropsondes this morning.

Raw data
They really think something will form.
818. IKE
Quoting potteryX:
Looking at the windshear maps. The clouds are in favourable to low shear for another couple hundred miles. But there is a jetstream set-up just east of Trinidad, that could blow a lot of the moisture to the N/E just before it gets here.
Am I reading this right?


I see what you're saying...

819. IKE
Quoting cyclonekid:
They really think something will form.


I'm color-blind. What's the percent?
IF this can make it into the Eastern Caribbean than it should have favorable shear conditions.


Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday
Quoting IKE:


I'm color-blind. What's the percent?
I don't know...I just know that something is looking like it will form (its yellow for the one nearest Africa)
higher than the epac
823. IKE
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
IF this can make it into the Eastern Caribbean than it should have favorable shear conditions.


Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday


Problem is...that's 4 days away. If that was there now. Looks to me like it's headed into increasing shear by tonight, unless that southern Caribbean shear lets up.
Shear is 4 to 8 meters per second in front of it Ike. Through next week Thursday looks like.
825. IKE
Quoting cyclonekid:
I don't know...I just know that something is looking like it will form (its yellow for the one nearest Africa)


That system south of the Cape Verdes may have a better chance of making it through the Caribbean.
I think this wave will struggle with the dust very soon. It's leaving the itcg and will lose a large amount of convection. The dry air and dust will hurt it and probably kill it.
827. IKE
Quoting potteryX:
Shear is 4 to 8 meters per second in front of it Ike.


? I have no idea what that is...lol...
TayTay. Which wave are you talking about?
Quoting IKE:


Problem is...that's 4 days away. If that was there now. Looks to me like it's headed into increasing shear by tonight, unless that southern Caribbean shear lets up.

Right now it looks to be in Easterly shear. That should change by tonight but, shears decreasing out ahead of it.

Quoting TayTay:
I think this wave will struggle with the dust very soon. It's leaving the itcg and will lose a large amount of convection. The dry air and dust will hurt it and probably kill it.


More than likely the stable air.

Central Atlantic.
Shear currently low over the wave.
New wave just emerged off of Africa...looks decent.

Ike, 827.
About 3 to 6 MPH. Low.
Very nice 850mb vort.

OK. So low shear, lots of convection, a low, and Vorticity too.
But a jetsream just west of the Islands, and dry air to the north and west.
It has been persistant so far. Will be fun to see what happens next.......
837. IKE
Quoting potteryX:
Ike, 827.
About 3 to 6 MPH. Low.


Okay. It is low. I was just looking into the Caribbean.
for now it looks like a strong trough. there actually is some heavy rain under them clouds unlike the past days have a great friday bloggers
GM looking at that mess approaching the lower islands,doesn't look very impressive,would really be surprised if anything came out of it.
Quoting NEwxguy:
GM looking at that mess approaching the lower islands,doesn't look very impressive,would really be surprised if anything came out of it.


Looks better then it did yesterday

Very nice 850mb vort.

Huh? Not very symmetrical at all, and fairly weak.

Just not very impressed with that line of storms in the CATL. Given some time, maybe something happens...But I just can't find much interesting about it right now other then there is nothing else in the Atl.
Quoting cyclonekid:
They really think something will form.


4-5% chance is "they really think something will form"? That is the first yellow in a long time, though.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
New wave just emerged off of Africa...looks decent.


Waves almost always look decent when they first pull off Africa, since they are usually just maintaining continental convection. The issues come when the wave has to switch from the continental diurnal cycle, to the maritime diurnal cycle. If it survives that, it has a better chance. Lets look again in 24-36hr.
Quoting StormJunkie:
Very nice 850mb vort.

Huh? Not very symmetrical at all, and fairly weak.

Just not very impressed with that line of storms in the CATL. Given some time, maybe something happens...But I just can't find much interesting about it right now other then there is nothing else in the Atl.


Im talking about the area off of Africa. Although I see what your saying about the CATL wave.
The Wave Off Africa stands a better chace of forming then the Central atlantic wave
Quoting NEwxguy:
GM looking at that mess approaching the lower islands,doesn't look very impressive,would really be surprised if anything came out of it.

The wave that spawned Katrina didn't look all that hot in the CATL, either.
Good conflicting veiws here LOL.
We wait, we watch.....
Out for now.
There is a lot more to "shear" than just a wind speed and direction. Even this is oversimplified. There could be wind from 5 different directions at 5 different altitudes, each with a different temperature and moisture content (and/or dust), and a computer algorithm might calculate and present a graphic as "low shear" or favorable. We will know when it becomes favorable, as a TC will form.

Doc M:"...For example, it is common to find a strong jet of wind at about 600 mb blowing along the edge of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL)--that area of dry, dusty air that frequently lies to the north of developing tropical cyclones in the mid-Atlantic. This jet will create significant wind shear that will not show up on the standard 200-850 mb wind shear plots. Since upper-air measurements are very sparse over the open ocean, wind shear that is invisible on 200-850 mb wind shear analysis charts will often unexpectedly kill or weaken a developing tropical cyclone..."
Quoting HIEXPRESS:
There is a lot more to "shear" than just a wind speed and direction. Even this is oversimplified. There could be wind from 5 different directions at 5 different altitudes, each with a different temperature and moisture content (and/or dust), and a computer algorithm might calculate and present a graphic as "low shear" or favorable. We will know when it becomes favorable, as a TC will form.

IF everything else lines up. Shear is just one part of the equation, but it is one of the primary killers of waves this year along with dust and MJO.
Blog Update
Reflector site for those at work, which includes Weather456, daily update.


AOI

AOI
852. Relix
The wave will surely pass south of the bigger antilles and could pretty well get into the Caribbean where it could pose problems. At least there's something to track...

Oh and Felicia is the perfect storm. Blossoms... travels... then dies and just leaves some water and wind. Perfect.
Hi! Atlantic active again with the whatchmablobbits east of the Antilles and the new one just advected from Africa.

Looks like shear is a little suppressed in the Caribb. as well. Yellow coming soon?

Being cautious this time as I still have aftertaste of crow.ShearMap Blobs
Quoting jeffs713:

IF everything else lines up. Shear is just one part of the equation, but it is one of the primary killers of waves this year along with dust and MJO.


You are right, or course. I said "it" implying only the shear, when I meant conditions in general.
855. IKE
This will be your last annular report out of me about Felicia...

## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP082009 FELICIA 08/07/09 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY
Everyone's right,some of our biggest storms started out poorly,but there isn't a lot of friendly areas for it to take off,I'd be more worried about the waves off Africa,assuming the favorable MJO sticks around for the next couple of weeks.
858. IKE
Found this from accuweather on the Atlantic....

"A change in the upper air pattern through the weekend could increase potential for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. A persistent upper ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and compensating upper trough over the eastern U.S. and the northern development over the western Atlantic basin much of the summer. This pattern will change over the weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and takes up camp over the southeastern U.S. This will open the door for tropical moisture or even a disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean or the southern Gulf to track northward and northwestward. There are no trackable features at this time, but it is worth keeping eye on."
We haven't seen shades of green like this in the ATL since last year..

860. IKE
Found this from the Birmingham,AL. morning discussion...looks like a trough returns mid to late next week....

".DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW...FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND
SETS UP TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MID 90S. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST COULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. ELSEWHERE...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...A MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL MOVE AROUND
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE RIDGE....ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND IN TO LOUISIANA SATURDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE
NAM...GFS...AND LOCAL WRF IN TAKING FEATURE INTO ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND
MAKING A TURN TO THE EAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY. AS
THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED SH/TS ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED
COVERAGE...PARTICULARLY DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING...IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK AS TROUGHING ATTEMPTS TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...RETURNING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO AN UNCERTAIN AND OFTEN PESKY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
WILL MAINTAIN POPS AND TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...AND CLIMO...FOR
EACH PERIOD NEXT WEEK."
Quoting IKE:
Found this from accuweather on the Atlantic....

"A change in the upper air pattern through the weekend could increase potential for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. A persistent upper ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and compensating upper trough over the eastern U.S. and the northern development over the western Atlantic basin much of the summer. This pattern will change over the weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and takes up camp over the southeastern U.S. This will open the door for tropical moisture or even a disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean or the southern Gulf to track northward and northwestward. There are no trackable features at this time, but it is worth keeping eye on."


.."Cry Havoc and Let Slip, the Tropics of 09"..



Quoting Skyepony:
We haven't seen shades of green like this in the ATL since last year..


That image is almost amusing. It looks like someone was trying to color in the entire MDR, GOM, and off the east coast.
Quoting Skyepony:
We haven't seen shades of green like this in the ATL since last year..



1 in 20! Things are lookin up.
Quoting IKE:
Found this from accuweather on the Atlantic....

"A change in the upper air pattern through the weekend could increase potential for tropical development in the Gulf of Mexico. A persistent upper ridge of high pressure over the southwestern U.S. and compensating upper trough over the eastern U.S. and the northern development over the western Atlantic basin much of the summer. This pattern will change over the weekend as the upper ridge shifts eastward and takes up camp over the southeastern U.S. This will open the door for tropical moisture or even a disturbance over the northwestern Caribbean or the southern Gulf to track northward and northwestward. There are no trackable features at this time, but it is worth keeping eye on."

I don't like that. A ridge setting up in the SE is the absolute last thing Florida or the western GOM want. That would tend to favor one of 3 possibilities for a storm, especially a CVH... 1. Recurve w/o hitting the east coast. 2. direct FL strike (east coast more likely), and 3. western GOM strike.

Lets hope the high either stays very weak, or builds in so strongly to keep storms well south.
Quoting Stormchaser2007:
New wave just emerged off of Africa...looks decent.



I think the wave exiting today, is the wave that GFS predicted about a week ago, would develop (exiting around 8th).

Have not checked on the current GFS however.

Quoting Patrap:


.."Cry Havoc and Let Slip, the Tropics of 09"..




"Cry Havoc and Let Slip, the Tropics of 09"
Morning Sir & Sirs. Back for a bit, then out again.
869. IKE
i see two tropical wave here one on water and one on land to
871. IKE
NEW BLOG!
Quoting Patrap:


.."Cry Havoc and Let Slip, the Tropics of 09"..





The GoM is open?

Who approved that?
Quoting IKE:
Found this from the Birmingham,AL. morning discussion...looks like a trough returns mid to late next week....

".DISCUSSION...

QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS EXPECTED TODAY AND TOMORROW...FOR MOST OF
THE AREA...AS UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CROSSES THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS AND
SETS UP TO OUR EAST BY SUNDAY. WILL MAINTAIN HIGHS A COUPLE DEGREES
ABOVE CLIMO FOR TODAY AND SATURDAY...LOW TO MID 90S. DRIER AIR WILL
CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE INTO THE AREA THROUGH TONIGHT. WITH CLEAR
SKIES...A FEW SPOTS IN THE NORTHEAST COULD SEE LOWS IN THE LOWER
60S. ELSEWHERE...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S EXPECTED.

AS THE RIDGE SHIFTS EASTWARD...A MID LEVEL VORT MAX WILL MOVE AROUND
THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGES OF THE RIDGE....ALONG THE NORTHERN
GULF COAST AND IN TO LOUISIANA SATURDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT FROM THE
NAM...GFS...AND LOCAL WRF IN TAKING FEATURE INTO ARKANSAS SUNDAY AND
MAKING A TURN TO THE EAST TOWARD THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY MONDAY. AS
THIS SYSTEM PROGRESSES...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND MOISTURE WILL RETURN TO
CENTRAL ALABAMA...WITH ISOLATED SH/TS ACTIVITY AS EARLY AS SATURDAY
AFTN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA. INCREASED
COVERAGE...PARTICULARLY DURING MAX DAYTIME HEATING...IS EXPECTED ON
SUNDAY AND MONDAY. HIGH TEMPS IN THE LOWER 90S EXPECTED EACH
AFTERNOON WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 70S.

RIDGE WEAKENS ACROSS THE AREA BY MID WEEK AS TROUGHING ATTEMPTS TO
RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS...RETURNING CENTRAL
ALABAMA TO AN UNCERTAIN AND OFTEN PESKY NORTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN.
WILL MAINTAIN POPS AND TEMPS CLOSE TO GUIDANCE...AND CLIMO...FOR
EACH PERIOD NEXT WEEK."



By By to August if that happens