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Category 4 Gonzalo Closes in on Bermuda; Ana Disorganized, Still a Threat to Hawaii

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:47 PM GMT on October 16, 2014

Hurricane Warnings are flying for Bermuda as one of the most powerful hurricanes ever to threaten the island, dangerous Category 4 Hurricane Gonzalo, aims its 145 mph winds towards Bermuda. After weakening briefly on Wednesday due to an eyewall replacement cycle, when the eye shrank to a minuscule 5 miles in diameter and the inner eyewall collapsed, Gonzalo successfully consolidated its new 20-mile diameter outer eyewall into an unbroken ring overnight. This allowed the hurricane to intensify from a Category 3 hurricane with 125 mph winds into a Category 4 hurricane with 145 mph winds overnight. That intensification process has now halted, as documented by three passes through the eye between 7 - 10:30 am EDT Thursday morning by a NOAA hurricane hunter aircraft. The plane found that the pressure had stabilized at 940 - 943 mb, a gap had opened in the southern eyewall, and a new concentric eyewall with a diameter of 40 miles had begun to form around an inner 17-mile diameter eyewall--all signs that intensification has halted. Wind shear is moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) have cooled a bit, to 28.5°C (83°F). Infrared and visible satellite loops on Thursday morning showed an impressive well-organized major hurricane with plenty of intense heavy thunderstorms, excellent spiral banding, and solid upper-level outflow. This is not a hurricane that will weaken quickly.


Figure 1. MODIS satellite image of Hurricane Gonzalo taken at approximately 1:30 pm EDT October 16, 2014. At the time, Gonzalo had top winds of 145 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Forecast for Gonzalo
The 8 am Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would remain a moderate 10 - 15 knots as Gonzalo approached Bermuda, and SSTs would cool to 27°C (81°F.) These conditions should discourage intensification, and may drive some modest weakening, but it is likely that Gonazalo will be a dangerous Category 3 or 4 storm with 120 - 135 mph winds at the time of its closest approach to Bermuda on Friday afternoon or evening. The latest suite of model runs has the hurricane passing less than 60 miles to the west of the island, which would put Bermuda in the strong right-front quadrant of the storm, potentially bringing them the strongest winds of Gonzalo's eastern eyewall. The models differ quite a bit on the forward speed on Gonzalo, with the 00Z Thursday run of the European model taking the hurricane just west of Bermuda near 10 pm AST Friday, and the GFS model predicting the closest pass at 4 pm AST Friday. Hurricane-force winds extend outwards about 45 miles from the center, and tropical storm force winds should extend 150 miles from the center. Thus, Bermuda is almost certain to see tropical storm-force winds, and pretty likely to see hurricane-force winds. In their 11 am EDT Thursday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave Bermuda a 99% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds of 39+ mph, and a 74% chance of hurricane-force winds of 74+ mph.

Gonzalo is also a threat to Newfoundland, Canada. Although the hurricane will likely be declared post-tropical on Saturday, it will still have Category 1 strength winds, and the GFS and European models predicted in their 00Z Thursday runs that Gonzalo would pass near Southeast Newfoundland between 2 am - 8 am EDT Sunday. In their 11 am EDT Thursday Wind Probability Forecast, NHC gave Cape Race, Newfoundland a 41% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, and a 4% chance of hurricane-force winds.


Figure 2. Category 3 Hurricane Fabian bears down on Bermuda at 10:50 am EDT September 5, 2003. Image credit: NASA.

Bermuda's hurricane history
Ten major hurricanes of Category 3 or stronger intensity have tracked within 75 miles of Bermuda in records dating to 1899. Two of these were Category 4 storms, the most recent of which occurred on September 13, 1948. The most recent Category 3 was Hurricane Fabian of 2003, which made a direct hit on the island at Category 3 strength on September 5, 2003. According to the NHC final report, Fabian was the worst hurricane to hit Bermuda since 1926, doing $300 million in damage: "There was extensive damage to vegetation and considerable roof damage to houses in exposed locations. Some buildings had more severe damage, due to inherent structural weakness in some cases and possibly due to tornadoes (which were not confirmed) in others. There were huge (estimated 20 to 30 ft high) battering waves on the south shore of the island, with the reported storm surge estimated near 10 ft. Significant structural damage was inflicted as a result of wave action and/or surge." Fabian is the only hurricane to get its name retired exclusively because of its impact on the island of Bermuda.

Bermuda links
Current conditions
Bermuda radar
Port of Bermuda webcam
North Shore of Bermuda looking west webcam


Figure 2. MODIS satellite image of Tropical Storm Ana taken at approximately 7 pm EDT October 15, 2014. At the time, Ana had top winds of 70 mph. Image credit: NASA.

Weaker Tropical Storm Ana still a threat to Hawaii
Tropical Storm Ana was at the verge of hurricane status on Wednesday, with 70 mph winds, but increased wind shear overnight caused the storm to weaken and grow disorganized. Satellite loops on Thursday morning showed that Ana had recovered somewhat, with more heavy thunderstorms blossoming near its center, but mircrowave satellite images from the Navy Research Lab in Monterey show that Ana has nothing resembling an eyewall attempting to form, and it is unlikely that Ana can intensify into a hurricane on Thursday. Wind shear is light, 5 - 10 knots, and Sea Surface Temperatures (SSTs) are warm, 28°C (82°F), which is about 1°F above average. The 8 am EDT Thursday run of the SHIPS model predicted that wind shear would be light, 5 - 10 knots, and ocean temperature would be warm, 27.5 - 28°C (81 - 82°F) for the next three days along Ana's path, and gave a 19% chance that the storm would intensify by 35 mph into a Category 1 hurricane by Friday morning. It is more likely that Ana would become a hurricane on Friday evening, though, given the storm's disorganized condition on Thursday morning. Our top two models for predicting hurricane tracks, the GFS and European models, both showed in their 00Z Thursday runs Ana passing 100 - 200 miles west of the Big Island of Hawaii on Saturday morning. This is far enough away that the tall mountains of the island would likely be unable to disrupt the storm. In their 11 am EDT Thursday Wind Probability Forecast, Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC) gave Kailua-Kona on the Big Island a 49% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, and a 4% chance of hurricane-force winds. Honolulu was given a 46% chance of experiencing tropical storm-force winds, and a 3% chance of hurricane-force winds. With the model runs for Ana trending farther west of late, Kauai appears to the be the island most at risk of a direct hit, but the storm should be weakening by the time it reaches Kauai Sunday evening, due to higher wind shear.


Figure 2. Tracks of all tropical cyclones (tropical depressions, tropical storms, and hurricanes) to pass within 100 miles of the Hawaiian Islands, 1949 - 2014. Hurricanes approaching from the east typically fall apart before they reach Hawaii due to the cool waters and dry air that lie to the east of the islands. Only two named storms approaching from the east have hit the islands since 1949, an unnamed 1958 tropical storm and Tropical Storm Iselle of 2014, which hit the Big Island. Hurricanes approaching from the south represent the biggest danger to the islands, due to the warmer waters and more unstable air present to the south. The only two major hurricanes to have affected the islands since 1949, Hurricane Iniki of 1992 and Hurricane Dot of 1959, both came from the south. Image credit: NOAA/CSC.

Hawaii's hurricane history
Tropical storms and hurricanes are rare in the Hawaiian Islands, but 2014 is one of their most active years on record. Tropical Storm Iselle made a direct hit on August 8, Hurricane Julio passed just to the north of the islands a few days later, bringing high surf, and now Hurricane Ana threatens to cause more trouble. Since 1949, the Hawaiian Islands have received a direct hit from just two hurricanes--Dot in 1959, and Iniki in 1992. Both hit the island of Kauai. Only two tropical storms have hit the islands since 1949--an unnamed 1958 storm which hit the Big Island, and Tropical Storm Iselle, which made landfall along the southeast shore of Hawaii's Big Island on August 8, 2014 with 60 mph winds. On average, between four and five tropical cyclones are observed in the Central Pacific every year. This number has ranged from zero, most recently as 1979, to as many as eleven in 1992 and 1994. August is the peak month, followed by July, then September. A brief summary of the three most significant hurricanes to affect Hawaii in modern times:

September 1992: Hurricane Iniki was the strongest, deadliest, and most damaging hurricane to affect Hawaii since records began. It hit the island of Kauai as a Category 4 on September 11, killing six and causing $2 billion in damage.

November 1982: Hurricane Iwa was one of Hawaii's most damaging hurricanes. Although it was only a Category 1 storm, it passed just miles west of Kauai, moving at a speed of nearly 50 miles per hour (80 km/h). Iwa killed one person and did $250 million in damage, making it the second most damaging hurricane to ever hit Hawaii. All the islands reported some surf damage along their southwest facing shores, and wind damage was widespread on Kauai.

August 1959: Hurricane Dot entered the Central Pacific as a Category 4 hurricane just south of Hawaii, but weakened to a Category 1 storm before making landfall on Kauai. Dot brought sustained winds of 81 mph with gusts to 103 mph to Kilauea Light. Damage was in excess of $6 million. No Dot-related deaths were recorded.

Related posts
Climate Change May Increase the Number of Hawaiian Hurricanes, my August 6, 2014 post
Climatic Atlas of Tropical Cyclone Tracks over the Central North Pacific (2008)

Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance 92E a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, an broad area of disturbed weather (Invest 92E) was located a few hundred miles south of the Pacific coast of Mexico on Thursday morning, and was headed northwest at about 5 - 10 mph. With light wind shear, warm SSTs near 29.5°C 85°F), and a moist atmosphere, this disturbance is likely to develop into a tropical depression later this week. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 60% and 70%, respectively. 92E is a threat to bring heavy rains to the Pacific coast of Mexico on Friday and continuing into the weekend. As of Thursday morning, though, 92E's heavy rains remained offshore, as seen on satellite loops.

Moisture from 92E may move northwards across Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by early next week, contributing to the formation of a tropical or sub-tropical depression there by Wednesday, as predicted by the GFS and European models.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has more on the tropics in a Thursday post.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Getting that Wilma Eye South Florida



hurricane moving faster
Gusts picking up.
I can certainly imagine that. Hang in there, do the smart things, and be safe, please.

Jo
Just did an update on the Atlantic tropics & Gonzalo for you late night bloggers....

Most immediate observation I see is that Gonzalo is undergoing a very well-defined eye wall replacement cycle with the pinhole eye collapsing and now a new larger eye showing up in its place. Probably will get downgraded to a category 3 as a result by tomorrow morning. However this is still going to be really...really...really bad for Bermuda any way you slice it. My thoughts are with those in Bermuda right now....stay safe...
0z HWRF much closer to Bermuda than at 18z:

Quoting 506. KoritheMan:

0z HWRF much closer to Bermuda than at 18z:



With Gonzalo being a bit further south than last night's track forecasts (which were placing the center to pass just north and west of Bermuda)...wouldn't be surprised if the eye passes directly over Bermuda
Quoting 507. NCHurricane2009:


With Gonzalo being a bit further south than last night's track forecasts (which were placing the center to pass just north and west of Bermuda)...wouldn't be surprised if the eye passes directly over Bermuda


It may not even need to. With the wind field expanding, the radius of maximum winds is broadening. This thing could pass 50 miles to the west and still be bad news.
Quoting 507. NCHurricane2009:


With Gonzalo being a bit further south than last night's track forecasts (which were placing the center to pass just north and west of Bermuda)...wouldn't be surprised if the eye passes directly over Bermuda


All the models seem further right that I've checked. They should have a good handle on it at this point and yea, they're not showing a great track for Bermuda.
An event of this magnitude might actually make the season memorable for me. Perhaps even enough to make up for Cristobal's would be visit to the Gulf Coast as a major hurricane.

Still hoping there are no casualties on Bermuda, though.
starting to get rain bands on the island now. when daylight breaks it mite be the real start of the abuse


This is looking more and more like a direct hit on Bermuda. Developing a large windfield and still has very deep convection. Looks good on satellite considering it's not what it was. As someone stated, kind of a Wilma look. Stay safe Bermudans! Looks like the real deal, imo.
Quoting 513. GatorWX:



This is looking more and more like a direct hit on Bermuda. Developing a large windfield and still has very deep convection. Looks good on satellite considering it's not what it was. As someone stated, kind of a Wilma look. Stay safe Bermudans! Looks like the real deal, imo.
yea gator looking at this last frame is really showing me its a direct hit no. Im with ya on this. Bermuda PLEASE TAKE ALL CAUTION AS NECESSARY! STAY INDOORS! THIS IS A DIRECT HIT FOR U GUYS! PLEASE GOD PROTECT THESE PEOPLE!
oops
My guess is it arrives at 100 or 105 kt. Increasing shear will prevent a new eye from becoming dominant, leading to those major hurricanes with open eyewalls we typically see here on the northern Gulf Coast. Such hurricanes, however, tend to be prodigious wind producers since the wind field expands outward concurrent with the culmination of the eyewall cycle, which is even more obvious as the system gains latitude and interacts with the mid-latitude westerlies.
Quoting 513. GatorWX:



This is looking more and more like a direct hit on Bermuda. Developing a large windfield and still has very deep convection. Looks good on satellite considering it's not what it was. As someone stated, kind of a Wilma look. Stay safe Bermudans! Looks like the real deal, imo.


What are you doing with your mouse
St. Johns slammer.

Quoting 518. VAbeachhurricanes:



What are you doing with your mouse


That's funny. I didn't even notice that. Clicking stop, probably.
Any deviation would bring the eye over Bermuda.
Click for loop.

MAJOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
08L/MH/G/C3+

Latest HWRF has Bermuda in the eye.



Jim Edds will be in Bermuda covering Gonzalo, he's gotten some great footage for other hurricanes like Charley and Haiyan, so we'll likely be seeing some footage showing up on youtube as it makes landfall.
Quoting hydrus:


Is it me or did you notice a little jog to the East in the last few frames?
GONZALO"S EYE NOW SHOWING ON RADAR ...







LINKS TO 'LIVE' BERMUDA RADAR LOOPS: (java)

Long Range (500km)
Link

Combined Ranges (250km and 100km)
Link

* * *
Quoting 535. windandrein:

GONZALO"S EYE NOW SHOWING ON RADAR ...







LINKS TO 'LIVE' BERMUDA RADAR LOOPS: (java)

Long Range (500km)
Link

Combined Ranges (250km and 100km)
Link

* * *


(Saved image).


The majority of FL is looking very dry through most of next week. Despite proclamations of some that 10 inches would fall on central FL early next week, the great weather continues!
Victims of Hudhud-remnants in the Himalaya:

Life-and-Death Choices in a Himalayan Blizzard
NYT, By BHADRA SHARMA, ELLEN BARRY and RAJNEESH BHANDARIOCT. 16, 2014



After the storm
Nepali Times, by Kunda Dixit, Oct 17, 2014
This week's blizzard in the central Himalaya was a wakeup call to install effective early warning weather systems
The devastating death toll from this week's blizzard and avalanches in the Annapurnas has once more highlighted the urgent need for weather early warning for trekkers in the Himalaya.
Till press time on Thursday, 32 people were confirmed dead in Manang and Mustang, with 85 still unaccounted for. There is still no word on dozens of trekkers who were planning to cross Larkya La in the Manaslu circuit on Tuesday.
This is not the first time blizzards and avalanches have hit the high Himalaya in recent years. Post-monsoon typhoons from the Bay of Bengal have been particularly disastrous. In November 1995, 13 Japanese trekkers and 11 Nepali guides were killed as they slept during a blizzard on the Gokyo trail. In October 2005, 18 Nepali and French climbers were killed in an avalanche on Kang Guru in Manang.
The casualties among trekkers in blizzards and floods tend to be higher in the peak autumn season, since heavy rains are not expected. However, weather experts say October is when trekkers and mountaineers have to most careful because it is the cyclone season in the Bay of Bengal. ...

Whole article see link above.

A deadly autumn for so many hikers, first on summit of Ontake Volcano, now in the Himalaya. Hope nobody has the idea to hike around Bermuda in the next hours ... Stay safe over there!
And good morning US-folks.
Good morning all!

Good morning, afternoon and evening, everyone. My thoughts and prayers for Bermuda. It's a beautiful island, full of color and moon gates.

Breakfast's on the sideboard: creamed chipped beef or sausage gravy over biscuits, Egg, Cheese and chorizo Quesadillas, creamy oatmeal with blueberries, omelets with cheese and mushrooms, honey ham and bacon, cheesy grits and shrimp, cheese Danishes, yogurt, fresh fruit and orange, apple or pineapple juice. Peppermint White Hot Chocolate, regular and decaf coffee with flavored creamers to the side. Enjoy!
541. MahFL
A tiny dot in a vast ocean....



Wow, Bermuda live streaming cam is still working. Here a fresh screenshot.


Somehow scary. (Saved image, click to get the current loop of Bermuda Weather Service).
Quoting 541. MahFL:

A tiny dot in a vast ocean....




it looks like david and goliath squaring off
Quoting 543. K8eCane:



it looks like david and goliath squaring off



lord please give them a slingshot
NBCnews is reporting live from the beach on the west side of the Island of Bermuda.
Meanwhile, the NOAA released its seasonal outlooks yesterday, and says forget the "polar vortex"; the next three months will be mainly warm and dry across the northern part of the US, and cool/wet across the southern part:




This is due, in part, to the coming El Nino, which is still expected to be short-lived and weak. To summarize:

1) ENSO-neutral conditions continue.

2) Positive equatorial sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies continue across most of the Pacific Ocean.

3) El Niño is favored to begin in the next 1-2 months and last into the Northern Hemisphere spring 2015.
548. MahFL
Quoting 547. Neapolitan:

Meanwhile, the NOAA released its seasonal outlooks yesterday

Above rain for Southern CA would be good.
Quoting 542. barbamz:



Wow, Bermuda live streaming cam is still working. Here a fresh screenshot.


Somehow scary. (Saved image, click to get the current loop of Bermuda Weather Service).


Will be Amazing if that stream can keep going all day long.
The ultimate in Voyeurism, that.

Stay Safe, Bermuda !
Gonzalo will be a very well covered storm. Most U.S. news organizations have live crews on the Island to cover the storm, unlike some of the storms we've had lately in third world locations.
Even the Hurricane in Baja wasn't covered by U.S. news organizations.
Good Morning,

65,024 (2013)
Bermuda, Population
Good morning. Good news for Bermuda as Gonzalo was definitely not able to complete its EWRC. It's been slowly weakening all night. Recon is checking him out now. I'd guess he's only 100kts, tops. It's a dangerous storm, but as long as common sense prevails on Bermuda they should make out alright. Looks to me like what's left of the eye may go directly over the island, or maybe even slightly east of it, which would be great.

The Royal Gazette
4 minutes ago · Edited
#Bermuda NEWS 8:25 update
Tropical storm force winds are expected to begin “imminently”, according to the Bermuda Weather Service. In its latest update, the service stated that tropical storm winds have been recorded in the marine area and will soon be moving on to the Island. “Storm force winds (southeasterly 50-70 knots gusts to 90 knots) arrive during the afternoon, further increasing to hurricane force (south-southeasterly 70-90 knots gusts 110 knots),” the statement said.

See the full #RoyalGazette report here
http://alturl.com/xebkr
SATURDAY...ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK
WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. LOWS SAT MORNING WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BUT SOUTHERN SECTIONS...NEAR WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...NEXT SHORTER WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BROADER
EAST COAST TROUGH AND PUSHES A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
STATE ON SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...VEERING MORE EAST ON MONDAY AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOS POPS REMAIN
BELOW MENTION BOTH DAYS WITH THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIKELY MANIFESTING AS CLOUD COVER.
WHILE THERE COULD BE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE
ATLANTIC...IMPACTS/COVERAGE LOOK TO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE EASTERN US ON
TUESDAY AND DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THAT SLOWLY
MEANDERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SUNDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY LIFTS
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN APPEARS TO MEANDER SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY TAPPING INTO A LARGE
POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/NW CARIB INTO
MID-WEEK WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW IT AFFECTS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST WHICH KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND
KEEPS MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FURTHER SOUTH AND MOST
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA UNDER DRIER WEST-NW FLOW. GFS IS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT STILL HIGHLIGHTS AREAS SOUTH
FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES.

TWC website said they have hurricane chasers Jim Edds and Mark Sudduth on the Island for live updates.
Quoting hurricanewatcher61:
SATURDAY.Melbourne weather discussion...ANOTHER DRY AND PLEASANT FALL DAY ACROSS THE REGION WITH
RIDGE AXIS NEAR LAKE OKEECHOBEE. LIGHT WINDS WILL BACK
WEST-SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF NEXT SYSTEM. TEMPS WILL GRADUALLY MODIFY
WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER/MID 80S. LOWS SAT MORNING WILL BE IN THE
UPPER 50S TO AROUND 60 BUT SOUTHERN SECTIONS...NEAR WEAKENING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...WILL BE THE COOLEST IN THE MID-UPPER 50S.

SUNDAY-MONDAY...NEXT SHORTER WAVE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH THE BROADER
EAST COAST TROUGH AND PUSHES A DRY FRONTAL BOUNDARY THROUGH THE
STATE ON SUNDAY. WINDS BECOME NORTHEAST BEHIND THE FRONT BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...VEERING MORE EAST ON MONDAY AS STRONGER HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS BEHIND THE BOUNDARY TO THE EASTERN SEABOARD. MOS POPS REMAIN
BELOW MENTION BOTH DAYS WITH THE SLIGHTLY ENHANCED LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE MODELS ARE INDICATING LIKELY MANIFESTING AS CLOUD COVER.
WHILE THERE COULD BE FEW SPRINKLES OVER THE
ATLANTIC...IMPACTS/COVERAGE LOOK TO LOW TO MENTION AT THIS TIME.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY...NEXT SHORTWAVE SWINGS INTO THE EASTERN US ON
TUESDAY AND DEVELOPS A CUT OFF LOW OVER THE MID ATLANTIC THAT SLOWLY
MEANDERS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

AT THE SURFACE...SUNDAY NIGHT`S FRONTAL BOUNDARY INITIALLY LIFTS
NORTH MONDAY NIGHT/TUESDAY AND THEN APPEARS TO MEANDER SOMEWHERE
ACROSS THE PENINSULA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. BOTH THE
GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE TAIL END OF THE BOUNDARY TAPPING INTO A LARGE
POOL OF TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE BAY OF CAMPECHE/NW CARIB INTO
MID-WEEK WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW IT AFFECTS EAST CENTRAL
FLORIDA. THE ECMWF BRINGS THE UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED TROUGH A
LITTLE FURTHER EAST WHICH KEEP THE SURFACE FRONT FURTHER SOUTH AND
KEEPS MOST OF THE SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE RETURN FURTHER SOUTH AND MOST
OF EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA UNDER DRIER WEST-NW FLOW. GFS IS A LITTLE
FURTHER NORTH WITH THE BOUNDARY...BUT STILL HIGHLIGHTS AREAS SOUTH
FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCES.

Best wishes (if I may use that word) to Bermuda.

From the NWS Key West on this day in history
.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN FLORIDA KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1910...A CATEGORY
4 HURRICANE MOVED TO THE NORTH-NORTHEAST...JUST EAST OF THE DRY
TORTUGAS. THE MAXIMUM STORM TIDE OBSERVED IN KEY WEST WAS 8 FEET...
WITH 15 FOOT WAVES CRASHING AGAINST THE SHORE AT WHAT IS NOW FORT
ZACHARY TAYLOR STATE PARK. DAMAGE ALONG THE FLORIDA KEYS WAS
ESTIMATED AT ABOUT $6.2 MILLION (2014 USD). THIS HURRICANE IS TIED
AS THE 46TH DEADLIEST HURRICANE IN THE UNITED STATES SINCE RELIABLE
RECORDS BEGAN IN 1851.
558. MahFL
Does it look like the eye might go east of Bermuda now, or is it the usual optical illusion ?
992.2mb In the center of Ana. 64kt flight-level winds and 55kt surface winds.
560. MahFL
Cloud tops are cooling again.....

First recon pass through Gonzalo recorded a pressure of around 944mb, so that hasn't changed much since yesterday. Some 105kt winds in the NE quadrant too.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
Good morning. Good news for Bermuda as Gonzalo was definitely not able to complete its EWRC. It's been slowly weakening all night. Recon is checking him out now. I'd guess he's only 100kts, tops. It's a dangerous storm, but as long as common sense prevails on Bermuda they should make out alright. Looks to me like what's left of the eye may go directly over the island, or maybe even slightly east of it, which would be great.


125kt flight-level winds and 105kt surface winds support 110-115kt.
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi · 41m 41 minutes ago

HWRF shows Bermuda in the Eye of Gonzalo at 00z. Maps on http://Weatherbell.com , developed by one and only @RyanMaue




Gonzalo: Saved images.
Repost from last night.

I know some people want to think they are providing a service in giving out "forecasts" but to state the Island might only experience winds far less than what the NHC is saying or the storm could miss the island altogether is not helping those who may feel complacency is warranted.. your posts right now in this situation merit responsibility not only for those who are looking for information but those who are lurking and possibly on the island reading these comments..

Please keep that in mind when you are giving your "thoughts"..

Anyone in need of information about Gonzalo should always refer to the National Hurricane Center..
NHC holding him at Category 4.

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO HEADING FOR BERMUDA... ...LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE LATER TODAY...
8:00 AM AST Fri Oct 17
Location: 29.9°N 66.5°W
Moving: NNE at 15 mph
Min pressure: 946 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph
Quoting ncstorm:
Joe Bastardi @BigJoeBastardi 41m 41 minutes ago

HWRF shows Bermuda in the Eye of Gonzalo at 00z. Maps on http://Weatherbell.com , developed by one and only @RyanMaue


Post #529 has an image.
Quoting 562. TropicalAnalystwx13:


125kt flight-level winds and 105kt surface winds support 110-115kt.

Yeah, it's a little stronger than I thought. We'll see what else they find but I'd go with 110kts based on the data so far. By the time the plane exits it may be down closer to 100kts.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER THAT TIME. ALL
MODELS ARE DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SW GULF
WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS
DEVELOPING THE STRONGEST LOW AND TRACKING THE FEATURE INTO THE SE
GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE KEEPING
A WEAKER SYSTEM LINGERING OVER THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH THU.
HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT MORE BLEND OF ECMWF
TO TEMPER SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE GFS.

This morning's Marine Weather Discussion
Something to watch in the days to come, if it holds true. Could be just some rain though.
Quoting canehater1:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL OVER THE FORECAST WATERS THROUGH THIS
WEEKEND. THE FORECAST CONFIDENCE DECREASES AFTER THAT TIME. ALL
MODELS ARE DEPICTING LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING OVER THE SW GULF
WATERS. HOWEVER...THERE ARE DIFFERENCES WITH RESPECT TO THE TRACK
AND STRENGTH OF THE LOW BETWEEN THE MODEL SOLUTIONS. THE GFS IS
DEVELOPING THE STRONGEST LOW AND TRACKING THE FEATURE INTO THE SE
GULF WATERS BY MIDWEEK. THE ECMWF AND UKMET SOLUTIONS ARE KEEPING
A WEAKER SYSTEM LINGERING OVER THE SW GULF WATERS THROUGH THU.
HAVE BLENDED THE GFS AND ECMWF WITH A SLIGHT MORE BLEND OF ECMWF
TO TEMPER SOME OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE SOLUTION OF THE GFS.

This morning's Marine Weather Discussion
A well placed dropsonde just recorded surface winds of 111kts, with 127kts just a few feet above the surface. Much more impressive than I figured given the degraded satellite appearance. Hopefully it continues jogging east so they miss that NE quadrant.
Still a Cat 4

000
WTNT33 KNHC 171151
TCPAT3

BULLETIN
HURRICANE GONZALO INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 20A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL082014
800 AM AST FRI OCT 17 2014

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO HEADING FOR BERMUDA...
...LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING
STORM SURGE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.9N 66.5W
ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SSW OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...130 MPH...215 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 25 DEGREES AT 15 MPH...24 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...946 MB...27.94 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE
With any luck at all, Gonzalo will be nowhere near the catastrophe for Bermuda it might have been, or may once have seemed. The storm is clearly weakening, and should continue to do so throughout the day. More importantly, it looks at the moment as though the center may move east of the island, leaving the most destructive winds well offshore. There'll doubtless be costly damage in Bermuda, and, unfortunately, some may get hurt or even killed, But at the moment, Bermuda is well-prepared, the storm is roundly covered, and Gonzalo doesn't look like The Big One that was so feared

(And I seriously doubt whether any Bermudan hunkered down for the storm is bent over a laptop reading only the comments in this forum for guidance, so folks here should feel free to express their reasonable opinions, as always. [And to anyone relying solely on an internet forum for lifesaving information: shame on you.])



i am going to hook up with some pictures of this hurricane later!!! look how big the hurricane getting in size to
Quoting 573. Neapolitan:

With any luck at all, Gonzalo will be nowhere near the catastrophe for Bermuda it might have been, or may once have seemed. The storm is clearly weakening; and--more importantly--it looks at the moment as though the center may move east of the island, leaving the most destructive winds well offshore. There'll doubtless be costly damage in Bermuda, and, unfortunately, some may get hurt or even killed, But at the moment, Bermuda is well-prepared, the storm is roundly covered, and Gonzalo doesn't look like The Big One that was so feared

(And I seriously doubt whether any Bermudan hunkered down for the storm is bent over a laptop reading only the comments in this forum for guidance, so folks here should feel free to express their reasonable opinions. [And to anyone relying solely on an internet forum for lifesaving information: shame on you.])


Nea, downplaying a Cat 4 heading to Bermuda..no shame on you..Bermudians shouldn't be relying on information from this forum but there are people who don't know any better and may think people on here are experts..yes, please express opininons that the storm will move to the east of Bermuda and the eye won't pass over them as certain..because you clearly know more than the NHC..I'm really surprise that you are saying these things..unreal..

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE GONZALO HEADING FOR BERMUDA......LIKELY TO BRING DAMAGING WINDS AND A LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE LATER TODAY...

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM AST...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE GONZALO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 66.5 WEST. GONZALO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 15 MPH...24 KM/H. A CONTINUED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS
EXPECTED THROUGH SATURDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE EYE OF
GONZALO WILL BE NEAR BERMUDA THIS AFTERNOON OR TONIGHT.


MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 130 MPH...215 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. GONZALO IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON
HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SLOW WEAKENING IS FORECAST TODAY...BUT
GONZALO IS EXPECTED TO BE A DANGEROUS HURRICANE WHEN IT MOVES NEAR
OR OVER BERMUDA.
FASTER WEAKENING IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TONIGHT.

HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 60 MILES...95 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 175
MILES...280 KM.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 946 MB...27.94 INCHES.
Did wunderground went down earlier.
The blogs are saved:)

Gonzalo
Inconvenient time for servers to crash
Hi guys, checking in from Bermuda, we are experiencing Tropical storm force winds from the SE currently with gusts building.

Still have power and internet obviously. Will check in later as things start to heat up. If I have power that is!
The blog is back!
It had me worried.
Quoting hurricanes2018:



i am going to hook up with some pictures of this hurricane later!!! look how big the hurricane getting in size to
Are you starting to get rain and wind.
Didn't even get upset, usually it's my own computer's fault.

Dry air has made it into the core of Gonzalo.
The storm will have no choice but to weaken. How fast will it weaken is the question?

Quoting Sfloridacat5:
The blog is back!
It had me worried.
Me.
www.portbermudawebcam.com

Up and running, but getting windy there.
I think some bloggers here don't realize that a constant wind speed of 130 mph could create gust of over 150 mph witch is as strong as a strong tornado.
589. MahFL
It was a wobble to the east as the eye consolidates, back on track for a direct hit...



... the interaction with the Front
Question for the blog: So 2013 was the first season where Category 4 strength on the SS scale was widened from 130-156 mph where it had previously been 131-155. So would that posthumously upgrade Hugo to a Category 4 when it hit Puerto Rico or does it only count for storms formed after the scale was changed? Other storms I'm sure made landfall at 130 mph (Frederic, maybe Ivan). I say 130 because 115 kt is technically Category 4 no matter the change (~132 mph)
Breadcrumb ...

Alive and well here. Locked out again, but surviving. So fortunate that I had the opportunity yesterday to initiate SS/BS Protocols by donning the D:G. Bermuda may be spared the much worst, but must still remain vigilant as Gonzaga approaches.

It's a good thing there isn't a comments section on the NHC site.
Quoting 581. DevilsIsles:

Hi guys, checking in from Bermuda, we are experiencing Tropical storm force winds from the SE currently with gusts building.

Still have power and internet obviously. Will check in later as things start to heat up. If I have power that is!


Good luck. The BWS is forecasting 80 to 105 mph sustained winds at their peak, with gusts potentially exceeding 125 mph. Higher elevations could see winds as much as 30% higher than the aforementioned values. Maybe get video if you can do it safely. :)
Quoting 588. belizeit:

I think some bloggers here don't realize that a constant wind speed of 130 mph could create gust of over 150 mph witch is as strong as a strong tornado.


Like one GIANT TORNADO sweeping across a fairly vulnerable island
595. MahFL
Quoting 573. Neapolitan:

it looks at the moment as though the center may move east of the island,


It was just a wobble, Bermuda is still in the bulls eye.
Quoting 585. Sfloridacat5:

Dry air has made it into the core of Gonzalo.
The storm will have no choice but to weaken. How fast will it weaken is the question?




It will weaken but at the same time accelerate its forward motion so it'll likely still be a major affecting Bermuda.
good news the winds are down to 130 mph on this hurricane


Cloud tops still cooling despite the dry air intrusion?
Bermuda Weather Service is expecting the storm to decrease to 100-105 knots (115 - 120 mph) at landfall.



600. MahFL
EWRC is nearly complete, pretty much at the worst time possible, northern eyewall cloudtops are cooling.



rain coming soon from the hurricane
Quoting 576. ncstorm:



Nea, downplaying a Cat 4 heading to Bermuda..no shame on you..Bermudians shouldn't be relying on information from this forum but there are people who don't know any better and may think people on here are experts..yes, please express opininons that the storm will move to the east of Bermuda and the eye won't pass over them as certain..because you clearly know more than the NHC..I'm really surprise that you are saying these things..unreal..




I would say it is a lot harder to find this blog that it would be to find information provided by the authorities. it becomes a conscience choice to listen to Nea over the NHC or Bermudian authorities. There is no excuse for stupidity or ignorance ...
Quoting 600. MahFL:

EWRC is nearly complete, pretty much at the worst time possible, northern eyewall cloudtops are cooling.



Still another 6 hours before landfall. Hopefully it weakens.
South side of the Hurricane is now showing sub hurricane force (T.S.) winds due to dry air as reported by TWC.
Down slightly to 110kt.

AL, 08, 2014101712, , BEST, 0, 299N, 665W, 110, 948, HU

Quoting 600. MahFL:

EWRC is nearly complete, pretty much at the worst time possible, northern eyewall cloudtops are cooling.



It's complete. Recon reports a 30nm eye.
Cool image ...
Looks like pressure is still falling? Third centerfix should be available soon.





Saved images from tropicaltidbits.com.
Good Morning. Prayers and hopes for our Friends in Bermuda as the storm approaches.

A good reminder for all that even a low number Atlantic season can generate one or two majors that can threaten a populated region.
Quoting 600. MahFL:

EWRC is nearly complete, pretty much at the worst time possible, northern eyewall cloudtops are cooling.



Oh no.
Again - Carl Parker - TWC
Recon finding very strong winds on the Northside, but dry air affecting the S.E. quad and only minimal hurricane force winds at the surface.

Quoting 573. Neapolitan:

With any luck at all, Gonzalo will be nowhere near the catastrophe for Bermuda it might have been, or may once have seemed. The storm is clearly weakening, and should continue to do so throughout the day. More importantly, it looks at the moment as though the center may move east of the island, leaving the most destructive winds well offshore. There'll doubtless be costly damage in Bermuda, and, unfortunately, some may get hurt or even killed, But at the moment, Bermuda is well-prepared, the storm is roundly covered, and Gonzalo doesn't look like The Big One that was so feared

(And I seriously doubt whether any Bermudan hunkered down for the storm is bent over a laptop reading only the comments in this forum for guidance, so folks here should feel free to express their reasonable opinions, as always. [And to anyone relying solely on an internet forum for lifesaving information: shame on you.])


WOW storm has not hit yet~~! Have ridden out weakening CAT3 hurricanes in NE quadrant, it was still a disaster - and should NOT be downplayed or sugarcoated.

The NHC rules, and they are the officials - Gonzalo is still a dangerous hurricane - and powerful!
Last Two Observations

10:55 Overcast ESE 23/0 (26/0) 26(79) 83 1009 / 29.80
09:55 Overcast ESE 21/0 (24/0) 26(79) 87 1009 / 29.81
The Royal Gazette
17 minutes ago · Edited
#Bermuda #Gonzalo NEWS UPDATE 10.50am
Police have now officially closed the Causeway at the East End - the only link between the main Bermuda island and St George's and St David's. The Causeway sustained major damage when Hurricane Fabian swept across the island in 2003.

I just posted the first Update on GONZALO. Major/full Update in about an hour, and will provide Interim Updates every 2 hours until storm passage.

Steve Gregory
Quoting 612. Stormwatch247:



WOW storm has not hit yet~~! Have ridden out weakening CAT3 hurricanes in NE quadrant, it was still a disaster - and should NOT be downplayed or sugarcoated.

The NHC rules, and they are the officials - Gonzalo is still a dangerous hurricane - and powerful!


I dont understand how anyone would downplay a Cat 4..I guess Bermuda ain't Hawaii..
Probably about 30 minutes old but the dry air entrainment has not penetrated into the inner core yet..........It is still well insulated at the moment and that stronger northern core is on the way to try to wrap around:

(And I seriously doubt whether any Bermudan hunkered down for the storm is bent over a laptop reading only the comments in this forum for guidance, so folks here should feel free to express their reasonable opinions, as always. [And to anyone relying solely on an internet forum for lifesaving information: shame on you.])

i never thought i would be saying this to you nea....but very well said :-)
Ana's outer bands reach Big Island of Hawaii:


I just posted the first Update on GONZALO. Major/full Update in about an hour, and will provide Interim Updates every 2 hours until storm passage.



you da man mr gregory
Quoting weathermanwannabe:
Probably about 30 minutes old but the dry air entrainment has not penetrated into the inner core yet..........It is still well insulated at the moment and that stronger northern core is on the way to try to wrap around:



I agree with you that the core looks pretty protected at the moment.
The eye wall has re-established itself quite nicely.
Dry air is eating away at the southside of the system, but the core is still very strong.
this is one of those hard days.......we watch the weather....second guess the experts.....and days like today....we watch mother nature do as she chooses...without regard to life...limb...or property.......godspeed to those in the oncoming path of gonzalo
I don't know why anyone is not talking about 92E in the EPAC potentially crossing over the isthmus of Mexico into the BOC. If it can travel through lower topography its got a chance to develop in BOC and GOM. I believe Eastern GOM states have to watch this between 84 to 164 hr time frame. What do you think?
It won't be long. Northside eye wall is expanding at the moment.
I don't know why anyone is not talking about 92E in the EPAC potentially crossing over the isthmus of Mexico into the BOC. If it can travel through lower topography its got a chance to develop in BOC and GOM. I believe Eastern GOM states have to watch this between 84 to 164 hr time frame. What do you think?


i noticed this morning that the models are not as excited this morning
Quoting 627. WeatherConvoy:

I don't know why anyone is not talking about 92E in the EPAC potentially crossing over the isthmus of Mexico into the BOC. If it can travel through lower topography its got a chance to develop in BOC and GOM. I believe Eastern GOM states have to watch this between 84 to 164 hr time frame. What do you think?


Ask later
Quoting 627. WeatherConvoy:

I don't know why anyone is not talking about 92E in the EPAC potentially crossing over the isthmus of Mexico into the BOC. If it can travel through lower topography its got a chance to develop in BOC and GOM. I believe Eastern GOM states have to watch this between 84 to 164 hr time frame. What do you think?


I don't think we're allowed to talk about anything else but Gonzalo. Some people got upset yesterday because somebody posted about something in the Pacific.
Quoting WeatherConvoy:
I don't know why anyone is not talking about 92E in the EPAC potentially crossing over the isthmus of Mexico into the BOC. If it can travel through lower topography its got a chance to develop in BOC and GOM. I believe Eastern GOM states have to watch this between 84 to 164 hr time frame. What do you think?


Late next week, tropical storm or some sub-tropical storm very likely to be in the GOM.
Based on the loop posted below, that slight movement towards the West looks to indeed have been a wobble during the replacement cycle and the core is headed towards Bermuda.
Quoting 631. Grothar:



I don't think we're allowed to talk about anything else but Gonzalo. Some people got upset yesterday because somebody posted about something in the Pacific.



actually I think it was people were getting mad about the potential GOM situation and not the Pacific..at least thats what I read..

my brain can handle multiple topics..go figure..so I see no harm in discussing more than one weather topic..
Quoting 631. Grothar:



I don't think we're allowed to talk about anything else but Gonzalo. Some people got upset yesterday because somebody posted about something in the Pacific.



LOL Gro! I think he won't get many responses right now, but he sure is welcome to post whatever he wants.
Gonzalo: Hurricane Warning for Bermuda
Hurricane Gonzalo is weakening, but is still a dangerous hurricane heading toward Bermuda.
Eastern Pacific tropical disturbance 92E a heavy rainfall threat to Mexico
In the Eastern Pacific, an broad area of disturbed weather (Invest 92E) was located a few hundred miles south of the Pacific coast of Mexico on Thursday morning, and was headed northwest at about 5 - 10 mph. With light wind shear, warm SSTs near 29.5C 85F), and a moist atmosphere, this disturbance is likely to develop into a tropical depression later this week. In their 8 am EDT Thursday Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave 92E 2-day and 5-day odds of development of 60% and 70%, respectively. 92E is a threat to bring heavy rains to the Pacific coast of Mexico on Friday and continuing into the weekend. As of Thursday morning, though, 92E's heavy rains remained offshore, as seen on satellite loops.

Moisture from 92E may move northwards across Mexico into the southern Gulf of Mexico's Bay of Campeche by early next week, contributing to the formation of a tropical or sub-tropical depression there by Wednesday, as predicted by the GFS and European models.

Hurricane expert Steve Gregory has more on the tropics in a Thursday post.

Jeff Masters
Guys, this is the best blog spot to keep up to date regarding Gonzalo. The blog was set-up for Fay and has been running ever since in this week long cyclonic marathon we in Bermuda are experiencing. Videos, pics and updates.

http://bernews.com/2014/10/live-blog-updates-subt ropical-storm-fay/

Quoting 627. WeatherConvoy:

I don't know why anyone is not talking about 92E in the EPAC potentially crossing over the isthmus of Mexico into the BOC. If it can travel through lower topography its got a chance to develop in BOC and GOM. I believe Eastern GOM states have to watch this between 84 to 164 hr time frame. What do you think?


Perhaps because a major hurricane is bearing down on Bermuda and a strengthening tropical storm is heading toward Hawaii.

That's just a guess.
each run the models shift a bit further from hawaii....the islansd might get a break......




Guys, this is the best blog spot to keep up to date regarding Gonzalo. The blog was set-up for Fay and has been running ever since in this week long cyclonic marathon we in Bermuda are experiencing. Videos, pics and updates


thanx devil......you all set?
Okay back to work for me..I'll check in later..

The Royal Gazette
7 mins ·


#Bermuda #Gonzalo NEWS UPDATE 11.23 am
Premier Michael Dunkley confirmed this morning that Royal Navy warship HMS Argyll was heading for Bermuda to help with post-Gonzalo relief efforts. “Argyll is a frigate the UK puts in the Caribbean during hurricane season,” Mr Dunkley told the Emergency Broadcast Station at about 10.30am.

See the full #RoyalGazette report here
http://alturl.com/8w2mq

Gonzalo is moving north-northeast thanks to a southward dip in the jet stream coming off the eastern U.S.

This jet stream dip will eventually begin to pinch off the outflow on the western semicircle of Gonzalo. Wind shear will increase and water temperatures will be cooler due to upwelling in the wake of Hurricane Fay (water at the surface of the ocean moves away from the storm center and colder water from below moves to the surface to fill the void).

Therefore, we expect Gonzalo to be weakening as it approaches Bermuda. However, since Gonzalo's forward speed will be increasing, it won't have time to weaken much, and will be doing so from an initial, lofty Category 4 perch, too.

As pointed out by the National Hurricane Center, winds on higher terrain may be up to 30 percent stronger than those near sea-level, an important point to keep in mind given the terrain of Bermuda.

Storm surge flooding, plus flooding due to large, battering waves, is expected in Bermuda Friday. Rainfall from 3 to 6 inches is expected, as well.
Winds are expanding (storm increasing in size) with Gonzalo as it starts to transform from a tropical system to a sub-tropical system.
TWC - Carl Parker

Dry air "is getting into the circulation." This can be seen on radar by the lack of precipitation/convection on the southside.

Still a very dangerous system


Looks like Gonzalo is getting stronger again


Recon heading towards the center already for the fourth time now.

You can see Bermuda as the tiny dot to the right

650. MahFL
Bermuda in the "orange" part now...

There's some rain on the Port of Bermuda camera lens, radar confirms some showers have begun to affect the islands.
Hunker Down Bermuda,

Gonzalo closing in ..... hang in there!
Gonzalo slowly becoming blended with the frontal boundary.
Note the trailing front forming south of Gonzalo.
Precipitation not quite to Bermuda. Very soon
It appears that Gonzalo will make it's closest approach at high tide. With 35-40 seas the flooding could be much worse than first thought. I can't find my high tide link. If anyone has one, could they post it.

Quoting 651. win1gamegiantsplease:

There's some rain on the Port of Bermuda camera lens, radar confirms some showers have begun to affect the islands.


Winds starting to pick up too looking at the trees and bushes
Rough day for those on Bermuda......LOOKS like a direct hit coming! DANG!!!
Fabian, top, and Gonzalo, bottom, at roughly the same point approaching Bermuda.



Gonzalo down to CAT3 - 125 mph winds
How do we get the long range radar out of Bermuda?
The radar TWC is showing shows the entire storm (eye and southside of the system) in the radar.
HERE IS A LIVE CAM FEED FROM BERMUDA


no cruise ships docked there today
The stronger core t-storms have died down over the last hour; a good start towards the weakening trend but the point below as to the quicker forward speed is valid; expanding wind field appears to be in progress as the storm starts the extra-tropical transition.  Hopefully, it will be a relatively quick passage for Bermuda with the t-storms not firing again as nicely as they looked this morning when the core gets to them:


Any web cam to see?
Quoting 665. Salvajega:

Any web cam to see?


I just posted one
Quoting Salvajega:
Any web cam to see?


Link
Quoting 667. will40:



Link


Thanks man.
669. MahFL
Quoting 662. Sfloridacat5:

How do we get the long range radar out of Bermuda?
The radar TWC is showing shows the entire storm (eye and southside of the system) in the radar.


This page ?
IR and Radar
East Pacific tracks now north and east.
Quoting MahFL:


This page ?
IR and Radar


No not that one.
TWC is showing a radar loop that just shows precipitation. It has a very extended range that shows the whole system.
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
674. MahFL
In TS force winds now.

Want to make a correction to my comment below (do not have access to TV at the moment and the TWC updates); this is a dangerous tropical hurricane and the extra-tropical transition will not occur until after it passes Bermuda....I was just noting the comment as to the expanding wind field made on TWC. This is a good sign nonetheless.
Quoting 635. Ameister12:




I don't see how it can fend off dry air with the lack of structure on the south side of the system.
677. PTXer
The webcam in on the North side of the island looking South into the Great Sound.
I thought Gonzalo was expected to hit Bermuda this morning (eye passing over I mean) ... looks to be quite far away still