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Category 4 Giovanna battering Madagascar

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:45 PM GMT on February 13, 2012

Earth's most dangerous storm of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Giovanna, which is bearing down on Madagascar as a powerful Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Giovanna is predicted to hit a heavily populated portion of the east coast of the island near 22 GMT tonight as a Category 3 storm, then move inland, passing near the capital of Antananarivo as a Category 1 storm on Tuesday morning. The outer spiral bands of the storm have already moved over the island, bringing heavy rains and gusty winds.


Figure 1. Visible image from NASA's Terra satellite of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna approaching Madagascar, taken at 6:35 UTC Monday February 13, 2012. At the time, Giovanna was a Category 4 storm with 145 mph winds. Image credit: NASA.


Figure 2. Webcam view of the skies over the Andila Beach Hotel in northwest Madagascar, taken at 6:15pm local time on Monday February 13, 2012. Image credit: Andilana Beach Hotel.

The forecast: not good
Recent microwave satellite imagery (Figure 3) shows that Giovanna has concentric eyewalls, and it likely that the inner eyewall will collapse today as the storm undergoes an eyewall replacement cycle. This process should gradually weaken the storm, and I expect Giovanna will weaken slightly to a still very dangerous Category 3 storm with 125 - 130 mph winds at landfall. However, the eyewall replacement cycle will spread out the storm's hurricane-force winds over a larger area, increasing the storm surge. A 70-mile long swath of the coast that is heavily populated will receive sustained hurricane-force winds tonight. Rainfall amounts in excess of eight inches in a 24-hour period are expected along the center of Giovanna's path. These rains will cause extensive flooding and major damage to the country, and the storm is likely to be one of the top three most expensive disasters in Malagasy history. The damage potential is higher than for previous storms of similar intensity, due to the considerable deforestation Madagascar has experienced over the past 30 years. Madagascar lost 8.3% of its forest cover between 1990 and 2010 and is now just 22% forested, according to mongabay.com. Flood waters run off quicker from deforested land, reach higher heights, and cause greater damage.


Figure 3. Microwave satellite image of Tropical Cyclone Giovanna taken at 12:30 UTC (7:30 am EST) Monday, February 13, 2012. The echo-free eye is surrounded by two concentric eyewalls, the sign of a storm undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle. Image credit: Navy Research Lab, Monterrey.

Madagascar's tropical cyclone history
The strongest and deadliest tropical cyclone ever recorded in Madagascar was Tropical Cyclone Gafilo, which hit the northern end of the island on March 7, 2004, as a Category 5 storm with 160 mph winds. Galfilo dumped up to 20 inches of rain on the island, and its winds and flooding rains killed 363 people and did $250 million in damage, making it the deadliest and second most expensive storm in Madagascar's history. Gafilo's central pressure of 895 mb made it the second strongest tropical cyclone ever recorded in the Southern Hemisphere, behind the 890 mb central pressure of Tropical Cyclone Zoe of December 2002, which affected Fiji and the Solomon Islands. With a central pressure of 937 mb, Giovanna is a much less intense storm than Gafilo was.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

All we can do is to hope for the best. Sad, but true.
Not good!
Before its landfall, Giovanna should undergo a bit stronger easterly vertical wind shear on the northern side of rebuilding upper level high pressures. The impact of this increase with a shear that is in the same direction than the cyclone motion is difficult to appreciate for a system like Giovanna with a self-induced outflow. However, it is likely that intensity weakens a bit before the landfall on the eastern coast of Madagascar tonight.

The landfall is expected within a 80 km radius from Andovoranto. Weather conditions are expected to worsen rapidly within the next hours between Sainte-Marie island and Mananjary with intensifying rains progressing inland this night. Winds will increase, mainly over the coast within a 150 km radius from landfall where gusts should exceed 100 km/h. Gusts should exceed 180 km/h within a 70 km radius, mainly south from landfall. Storm surge between 2.5 to 3.0 meters are expected south from landfall area. All inhabitants of this sectors are invited to closely follow the arrival of this dangerous cyclone.
Last few frames shows Giovanna is becoming a bit more organized. It's CDO has improved somewhat, note the -60 C that have now encircled the eye wall. Now its building its -70. Might be feeling that last bit of warm water its trans-versing over.

Latest Image


TCHP

RE: Greece upheaval.


The U.S. is headed for a rude awakening too.

The baby boomers, etc, most especially.

Back when Social Security was invented, the plan was basicly that each generation would live off the backs of the future generations, but back then, the population growth rate was more like 4 or more children per woman.

Example: I actually have 16 great aunts and uncles on just one quarter of my family tree (most of whom have been retired for 30 or more years now,) and several of them had 4 or 5 kids each.


So you can see how gramps could be confident that the contribution of his 4 to 10 kids was going to pay for SS at the end of his life.

Even retirement plans such as stocks and mutual funds still basicly work(ed) on the same principle: live off the future population growth, and rely on each generation being twice as big as the previous.

In the past 30 years, population growth dropped to 2.1 children per woman, and in the past several years it has dropped to less than 2, I think.

Additionally, educated people wait until they are 25 or 30 to have children. If not for the "unwanted pregnancies" and such from teens experimenting, then the population curve would be even slower.


So what this means is that for every 2 retirees, drawing SS and pensions, including state and federal retirements, there will be only 1 worker in the nation.

Additionally, many government retirement plans are paying as much as 90% of income in retirement...for life! With life expectancy increasing 1 year per decade, this means the cost of government wages and salaries is effectively doubled, if not a bit more than that.

Not only will it not work, but they basicly cannot retire....ever...nor can anyone else.

In fact, most people on retirement now need to get off it and go back to work.

In some cases, it's not legal, and they'll never get the votes to do it, but the governments need to abolish, even retroactively, the entire retirement system.

But that's not going to happen until all hell breaks loose.


Plus there isn't any work anyway, because automation and IT has replaced so many jobs.
There is virtually no shear affecting this system as its outflow is almost perfect. The only factor in holding this system back from a CAT 5 was the dry air to its south and west. This Cyclone is also aiming at higher population densities within Madagascar.

Its capital is only forecasted to receive CAT 1 type effects, but it should be noted that with the abrupt increase elevation of Antananarivo which sits around 4000 ft. elevation they will see 100 winds easily locally higher. Then you have all the treeless hills in the background that will compound flash flooding and mudslides.


Antananarivo

Can't get the link to Andilana Beach Hotel cam to work. Hope that hasn't gone down already.
Quoting RTSplayer:
RE: Greece upheaval.


The U.S. is headed for a rude awakening too.

The baby boomers, etc, most especially.

Back when Social Security was invented, the plan was basicly that each generation would live off the backs of the future generations, but back then, the population growth rate was more like 4 or more children per woman.

Example: I actually have 16 great aunts and uncles on just one quarter of my family tree (most of whom have been retired for 30 or more years now,) and several of them had 4 or 5 kids each.


So you can see how gramps could be confident that the contribution of his 4 to 10 kids was going to pay for SS at the end of his life.

Even retirement plans such as stocks and mutual funds still basicly work(ed) on the same principle: live off the future population growth, and rely on each generation being twice as big as the previous.

In the past 30 years, population growth dropped to 2.1 children per woman, and in the past several years it has dropped to less than 2, I think.


So what this means is that for every 2 retirees, drawing SS and pensions, including state and federal retirements, there will be only 1 worker in the nation.

Additionally, many government retirement plans are paying as much as 90% of income in retirement...for life! With life expectancy increasing 1 year per decade, this means the cost of government wages and salaries is effectively doubled, if not a bit more than that.

Not only will it not work, but they basicly cannot retire....ever...nor can anyone else.

In fact, most people on retirement now need to get off it and go back to work.

In some cases, it's not legal, and they'll never get the votes to do it, but the governments need to abolish, even retroactively, the entire retirement system.

But that's not going to happen until all hell breaks loose.


Plus there isn't any work anyway, because automation and IT has replaced so many jobs.


Everything is fine in the good ol USA

12,844.97
+43.74
Quoting RTSplayer:


If you adjust that for inflation, it must go up at least 3% average net gain per year just to keep up with average inflation.

In order to produce profits that people can retire and live on dividends and compounded interest for decades, it needs to maintain and average of about a 10% gain per year, so that the "average" mutual fund actually produces growth that a person can live on. This is frankly impossible.


How much longer can they manipulate this....as the brick wall is rapidly approaching
the hills of Antananarivo...

6. RTSplayer

Social Security is not the problem, health care at the federal, state, local and private levels is. If nothing is done to SS it will still pay 75% starting in the mid 2030's. Solve the health care cost problem and you solve our long term deficit.
Quoting RTSplayer:
RE: Greece upheaval.


The U.S. is headed for a rude awakening too.

The baby boomers, etc, most especially.

Back when Social Security was invented, the plan was basicly that each generation would live off the backs of the future generations, but back then, the population growth rate was more like 4 or more children per woman.

Example: I actually have 16 great aunts and uncles on just one quarter of my family tree (most of whom have been retired for 30 or more years now,) and several of them had 4 or 5 kids each.


So you can see how gramps could be confident that the contribution of his 4 to 10 kids was going to pay for SS at the end of his life.

Even retirement plans such as stocks and mutual funds still basicly work(ed) on the same principle: live off the future population growth, and rely on each generation being twice as big as the previous.

In the past 30 years, population growth dropped to 2.1 children per woman, and in the past several years it has dropped to less than 2, I think.

Additionally, educated people wait until they are 25 or 30 to have children. If not for the "unwanted pregnancies" and such from teens experimenting, then the population curve would be even slower.


So what this means is that for every 2 retirees, drawing SS and pensions, including state and federal retirements, there will be only 1 worker in the nation.

Additionally, many government retirement plans are paying as much as 90% of income in retirement...for life! With life expectancy increasing 1 year per decade, this means the cost of government wages and salaries is effectively doubled, if not a bit more than that.

Not only will it not work, but they basicly cannot retire....ever...nor can anyone else.

In fact, most people on retirement now need to get off it and go back to work.

In some cases, it's not legal, and they'll never get the votes to do it, but the governments need to abolish, even retroactively, the entire retirement system.

But that's not going to happen until all hell breaks loose.


Plus there isn't any work anyway, because automation and IT has replaced so many jobs.


Just wait till they have androbots that'll replace all our jobs!
good greif RTS...got to bring politics onto another blog for another useless conversation...
ima be back when blog topic turns around.
Weather getting packed and cloudy in Jammu Kashmire state of India, leads to a bleak season for the mountain frenzy crowd, a state of 'no go' for any adventures to the Himalayan heights.
On another topic...

Arctic sea ice recovering nicely:



However, since a good portion of the ice is only 1 or 2 years old, expect this to be another record melt season. At the very least in the top 5.

Smog is slowing down the winds that shear hurricanes. Here is the world center of computer "recycling". Satellite MODIS today.



Heavy Snow/Sleet in North Arkansas
Quoting SteveDa1:
On another topic...

Arctic sea ice recovering nicely:



However, since a good portion of the ice is only 1 or 2 years old, expect this to be another record melt season. At the very least in the top 5.
Extent is up. However, area--a more accurate measurement--is considerably down. In fact, it's at a record low. (In the past four weeks, just 20,000 km2 of ice has been added, an amount less than 2% of what was added over the same period last year.)

I'm melting! I'm melting!

2012 will almost certainly go down in the top three--that is, tied with both 2010 and 2007--if it doesn't take first place all by itself.
West Africa today.
Noting That Graph on:-24. Neapolitan.

Of minor interest on this blog at this time but I find it interesting that the width of the spread for the maximum winter ice coverage is considerably less than for the summer coverage.
IE. Winter coverage has dropped by about 2 million sq. kilometers, whereas, summer coverage has dropped by about 3 million sq.kilometers over the same period.
This ratio seems to be more or less consistent over the plotted years.
Hazarding a guess; I would say down to almost 2 million sq. kilometers this summer, might not be unrealistic, though we will have to wait until September!
I hate you Giavonna.....Anyway it's been windy here for the third day in a row.some neighboorhoods were without power due to the winds.Very crazy situation.
Eastern China suffocating today.


Quoting Neapolitan:
Extent is up. However, area--a more accurate measurement--is considerably down. In fact, it's at a record low. (In the past four weeks, just 20,000 km2 of ice has been added, an amount less than 2% of what was added over the same period last year.)

I'm melting! I'm melting!

2012 will almost certainly go down in the top three--that is, tied with both 2010 and 2007--if it doesn't take first place all by itself.


Interesting! Thanks for posting this graph but we are on day 44 of this year. That graph says day 35.

If I'm correct, it doesn't include the little upward surge of this past week that the ice extent map has shown.

Nonetheless, this has little significance if any. Just look at 2010. The ice area/extent was at normal at the end of march/early April but in no way has that stopped the ice from melting close to the record low that year.
New NOAA interactive feature showing climate warming over past century.

Link
Strong cells popping now

1630Z Image

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Quoting wxmod:
Eastern China suffocating today.



Has anybody got any webcam images of this level of pollution?
It seems hardly possible that this much pollution is being produced and so uniformly consistent, its more like an intentional smoke screen.
This area is a significant proportion of the earths land surface.For that matter any area is I suppose if you are living on it!
Severe weather outbreak at the end of the week?
1:the proposed fed budget.. I think the koolaid must have fermented :(

2: Prayers for Madagascar...

3: Giovanna only has 250 miles to cross before getting over more warm SST's before hitting a region of park reserves is Southern Mozambique.. I would hate to be on safari and have my tent blow away!
Quoting PlazaRed:

Has anybody got any webcam images of this level of pollution?
It seems hardly possible that this much pollution is being produced and so uniformly consistent, its more like an intentional smoke screen.
This area is a significant proportion of the earths land surface.For that matter any area is I suppose if you are living on it!


China's fossil fuel consumption is increasing at a ridiculous rate, even though they are also one of the leading nations in wind and solar.

Washington times article, 2009

"if China’s energy usage structure remains unchanged, its emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for global warming would reach 17 billion tons a year by 2050. That would represent 60 percent of total global emissions and three times China’s current production,"



At that rate, China alone would be contributing almost 3.4PPM co2 to the atmosphere, since we currently make 30 billion tons world wide, and half to 2/3rds of that is absorbed by the oceans and plants.

So just by themselves they would nearly double the net annual CO2 increase by 2050...

That's not even counting other developing nations and 3rd world nations.

The slope of the keeling curve would likely be 6 or 7 by 2050 at this rate.
Quoting RTSplayer:


China's fossil fuel consumption is increasing at a ridiculous rate, even though they are also one of the leading nations in wind and solar.

Washington times article, 2009

"if China’s energy usage structure remains unchanged, its emissions of greenhouse gases blamed for global warming would reach 17 billion tons a year by 2050. That would represent 60 percent of total global emissions and three times China’s current production,"



At that rate, China alone would be contributing almost 3.4PPM co2 to the atmosphere, since we currently make 30 billion tons world wide, and half to 2/3rds of that is absorbed by the oceans and plants.

So just by themselves they would nearly double the net annual CO2 increase by 2050...

That's not even counting other developing nations and 3rd world nations.

The slope of the keeling curve would likely be 6 or 7 by 2050 at this rate.


What is the total lag roughly of Temperature reaction to CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere...20 years?
Quoting PlazaRed:

Has anybody got any webcam images of this level of pollution?
It seems hardly possible that this much pollution is being produced and so uniformly consistent, its more like an intentional smoke screen.
This area is a significant proportion of the earths land surface.For that matter any area is I suppose if you are living on it!


These things will continue as we are responsible for treating our own Life Giving Bio-sphere like a Mardi Gras Port-o-Let during Fat Tuesday.

They are consequences, and they will continue to increase exponentially.

393.09ppm





Atmospheric CO2 for January 2012
Preliminary data released February 6, 2012
(Mauna Loa Observatory: NOAA-ESRL)
Quoting JNCali:
1:the proposed fed budget.. I think the koolaid must have fermented :(

2: Prayers for Madagascar...

3: Giovanna only has 250 miles to cross before getting over more warm SST's before hitting a region of park reserves is Southern Mozambique.. I would hate to be on safari and have my tent blow away!


You realize the first 2 trillion of that is three things:

Military, Interest payments, and Social security


Now the military is 600 billion annually, and the interest is about the same.

And MOST of the interest is actually due to prior military spending.


Now if our government operated with some common sense as it requires war, and required a reprisal from rogue states such as Iraq and Afghanistan, then much of the debt would not exist. Iraq should be paying the U.S., Kuwait, and Israel a 10% reprisal on oil from the original Gulf War. Afghanistan should be too since 2001.

Instead, we spend our money in their nations buidling schools, roads, and infrastructure for them, like morons.


It's all connected, friend.

PC and multi-culturalism is a big part of the problem.

And I'm not talking about the democrats either. This all actually went wrong under Reagan and George Bush senior, and then Junior screwed it up even worse.

When somebody wrongs you and your allies, for an unprovoked attack and power grab, then they owe you a reprisal, you don't owe them anything.
8 Skyepony "Can't get the link to Andilana Beach Hotel cam to work. Hope that hasn't gone down already."

Works for me. Probably hit it after sunset but before the outdoor lights came on. Anyway, HotelAndilanaBeach sends its images through meteosystem for the NorthNorthWestward view

and meteosystem for the SouthSouthEastward view.

Right now, there ain't much to see except what's lit by the resort lights.
Quoting RitaEvac:


Speaking of Nuclear...


Nuclear Event
Event date: 13.02.2012 04:16:21
Country: United States
State: State of Tennessee
Location:- [Sequoyah Nuclear Power Plant]

N 35%uFFFD 13.580, W 85%uFFFD 5.496

Just a minor event

When I first studied nuclear power in science class, there was 132 nuclear power in the U.S. - Illinois had the most with 15...These are the incidences we have had since 1979.. Plant Location Description Cost
(in millions
2006 $)
Nuclear power plant accidents in the U.S. with more than US$140 million in property damage[50][51] March 28, 1979 Three Mile Island Londonderry Township, Pennsylvania Loss of coolant and partial core meltdown, see Three Mile Island accident and Three Mile Island accident health effects US$2,400
March 9, 1985 Browns Ferry Athens, Alabama Instrumentation systems malfunction during startup, which led to suspension of operations at all three Units US$1,830
April 11, 1986 Pilgrim Plymouth, Massachusetts Recurring equipment problems force emergency shutdown of Boston Edison%u2019s plant US$1,001
March 31, 1987 Peach Bottom Delta, Pennsylvania Units 2 and 3 shutdown due to cooling malfunctions and unexplained equipment problems US$400
December 19, 1987 Nine Mile Point Scriba, New York Malfunctions force Niagara Mohawk Power Corporation to shut down Unit 1 US$150
February 20, 1996 Millstone Waterford, Connecticut Leaking valve forces shutdown of Units 1 and 2, multiple equipment failures found US$254
September 2, 1996 Crystal River Crystal River, Florida Balance-of-plant equipment malfunction forces shutdown and extensive repairs US$384
February 16, 2002 Davis-Besse Oak Harbor, Ohio Severe corrosion of control rod forces 24-month outage US$143
February 1, 2010 Vermont Yankee Vernon, Vermont Deteriorating underground pipes leak radioactive tritium into groundwater supplies US$700--Wiki/
Quoting SteveDa1:


Interesting! Thanks for posting this graph but we are on day 44 of this year. That graph says day 35.

If I'm correct, it doesn't include the little upward surge of this past week that the ice extent map has shown.

Nonetheless, this has little significance if any. Just look at 2010. The ice area/extent was at normal at the end of march/early April but in no way has that stopped the ice from melting close to the record low that year.
Here's a better--and current--image with just the two record years and 2012:

I'm melting!

It's very likely that ice area will shoot up over the next several days as the AO has flip-flopped. However, there's the matter of insolation; there's a lot of ice in parts of the Bering Sea that haven't seen as much in other years. That ice is pretty far south, so it will obviously start picking up the sun's rays first. Too, it's been relatively warm across parts of the Arctic, so scientists don't expect to see a whole lot more ice growth before the melt starts in earnest. My own guess is for another 400K-600K before next month's maximum. And I'll put money on it that 2012 will see a new low minimum. Area-wise, for now I'd go with 2.7-2.9 million km2 in September...
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:
All we can do is to hope for the best. Sad, but true.
That eyewall regeneration cycle may be a big player when all is over.
Dr. Masters was mentioned by the Washington Post's Capitol Weather Gang:Link
"Ride the Storm" Commercial -- 2012 Mitsubishi All-Wheel Control Lineup,featuring the Weather Underground



Arctic sea ice yesterday. How thick is it?

Quoting hydrus:


Why are we buying so much from other countries, when we "should" have so much here already?

Is it teh same old, "Consume everyone else's resources, then sit on our own," strategy?

How long will nuclear fuel last?



"Two technologies could greatly extend the uranium supply itself. Neither is economical now, but both could be in the future if the price of uranium increases substantially. First, the extraction of uranium from seawater would make available 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium%u2014a 60,000-year supply at present rates. Second, fuel-recycling fast-breeder reactors, which generate more fuel than they consume, would use less than 1 percent of the uranium needed for current LWRs. Breeder reactors could match today's nuclear output for 30,000 years using only the NEA-estimated supplies."



Great, so we know of a way of using nuclear reactors that are roughly 150 times more fuel efficient, but this is the U.S. that would make sense, so we shan't do that...NEVAAAAR!
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Severe weather outbreak at the end of the week?


i hope not, i dont think im ready to have my weather radio blaring at night :D

i am ready for some thunderstorms. NWS has some showers for me on thursday, with temperatures in high 50's
Quoting RTSplayer:


Why are we buying so much from other countries, when we "should" have so much here already?

Is it teh same old, "Consume everyone else's resources, then sit on our own," strategy?

How long will nuclear fuel last?



"Two technologies could greatly extend the uranium supply itself. Neither is economical now, but both could be in the future if the price of uranium increases substantially. First, the extraction of uranium from seawater would make available 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium%u2014a 60,000-year supply at present rates. Second, fuel-recycling fast-breeder reactors, which generate more fuel than they consume, would use less than 1 percent of the uranium needed for current LWRs. Breeder reactors could match today's nuclear output for 30,000 years using only the NEA-estimated supplies."


Part of the reason is probably that regulations add significantly to the cost of US uranium

This may show some of the regulations:
Link
Quoting RTSplayer:


Why are we buying so much from other countries, when we "should" have so much here already?

Is it teh same old, "Consume everyone else's resources, then sit on our own," strategy?

How long will nuclear fuel last?



"Two technologies could greatly extend the uranium supply itself. Neither is economical now, but both could be in the future if the price of uranium increases substantially. First, the extraction of uranium from seawater would make available 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium%u2014a 60,000-year supply at present rates. Second, fuel-recycling fast-breeder reactors, which generate more fuel than they consume, would use less than 1 percent of the uranium needed for current LWRs. Breeder reactors could match today's nuclear output for 30,000 years using only the NEA-estimated supplies."



Great, so we know of a way of using nuclear reactors that are roughly 150 times more fuel efficient, but this is the U.S. that would make sense, so we shan't do that...NEVAAAAR!
I would say we are "sitting" on it as you said. Uranium is VERY important, and the more we sit on the better. I do see your point.
I got the link to work, but the pictures look identical to the images below. unless there is zero wind. They must not be refreshing.

Good like lemurs.
1730Z Image

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Invest 99S might become our next Indian ocean cyclone-


from JTWC-

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITH 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 12.1S 96.6E TO 13.0S 86.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 96.1E. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Why are we buying so much from other countries, when we "should" have so much here already?

Is it teh same old, "Consume everyone else's resources, then sit on our own," strategy?

How long will nuclear fuel last?



"Two technologies could greatly extend the uranium supply itself. Neither is economical now, but both could be in the future if the price of uranium increases substantially. First, the extraction of uranium from seawater would make available 4.5 billion metric tons of uranium%u2014a 60,000-year supply at present rates. Second, fuel-recycling fast-breeder reactors, which generate more fuel than they consume, would use less than 1 percent of the uranium needed for current LWRs. Breeder reactors could match today's nuclear output for 30,000 years using only the NEA-estimated supplies."



Great, so we know of a way of using nuclear reactors that are roughly 150 times more fuel efficient, but this is the U.S. that would make sense, so we shan't do that...NEVAAAAR!

Breeder Reactors also have an incredibly amazing ability to create materials for nuclear weapons, have a rather low energy output, and produce a different type of fuel.

Also, I think Chernobyl and Fukushima should be all you need to explain why nuclear power isn't exactly safe.
This is copied from the beijingAir twitter site a few minutes ago:

BeijingAir BeijingAir
02-14-2012; 01:00; PM2.5; 380.0; 420; Hazardous (at 24-hour exposure at this level) // Ozone; 0.0; 0; No Reading
59 minutes ago


I don't know how those poor people survive. Some of the biggest forest fires in the USA have not produced pm2.5 readings even close to these.
I'm a little disappointed in some of the comments posted lately. Clearly you are asked to refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion. And saying good luck to the lemurs is not exactly fair. This is the most densely populated area in the country. And further, my 20-year old niece is there with the peace corps, and while I'm sure they've evacuated by now, we haven't heard from her in days. This may not be affecting YOUR area, but it is a serious storm and will affect many people in an area that cannot handle this type of storm.
Quoting jeffs713:

Breeder Reactors also have an incredibly amazing ability to create materials for nuclear weapons, have a rather low energy output, and produce a different type of fuel.

Also, I think Chernobyl and Fukushima should be all you need to explain why nuclear power isn't exactly safe.
I will perfect the fusion reactor. I will perfect clean energy .Yes.
Quoting SPLbeater:
Invest 99S might become our next Indian ocean cyclone-


from JTWC-

1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITH 160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE 12.1S 96.6E TO 13.0S 86.7E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 131130Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 96.1E. THIS SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS.



2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve/LOOP

click image for Loop dee Loop

ZOOM is available



Last August, Hurricane Irene spun through the Caribbean and parts of the eastern United States, leaving widespread wreckage in its wake. The Category 3 storm whipped up water levels, generating storm surges that swept over seawalls and flooded seaside and inland communities. Many hurricane analysts suggested, based on the wide extent of flooding, that Irene was a “100-year event”: a storm that only comes around once in a century.

However, researchers from MIT and Princeton University have found that with climate change, such storms could make landfall far more frequently, causing powerful, devastating storm surges every three to 20 years. The group simulated tens of thousands of storms under different climate conditions, finding that today’s “500-year floods” could, with climate change, occur once every 25 to 240 years. The researchers published their results in the current issue of Nature Climate Change.

....

Again, the group compared results from multiple models: one from the NHC which simulates storm surges quickly, though coarsely; another model that generates more accurate storm surges, though less efficiently; and a model in between, developed by Lin and her colleagues, that estimates relatively accurate surge floods, relatively quickly.

Today, a “100-year storm” means a surge flood of about two meters, on average, in New York. Roughly every 500 years, the region experiences towering, three-meter-high surge floods. Both scenarios, Lin notes, would easily top Manhattan’s seawalls, which stand 1.5 meters high.

But with added greenhouse gas emissions, the models found that a two-meter surge flood would instead occur once every three to 20 years; a three-meter flood would occur every 25 to 240 years.

“The highest [surge flood] was 3.2 meters, and this happened in 1821,” Lin says. “That’s the highest water level observed in New York City’s history, which is like a present 500-year event.”


http://www.physorg.com/news/2012-02-climate-today -year-years.html

Just imagine how much stronger and more frequent "100 year" events will become as we continue to add to our greenhouse gas blanket. And even if you don't live in a coastal area subject to extreme surges think about how many of your tax dollars are going to be spent on recovery and rebuilding.

Doesn't it make sense to move as quickly as possible off of fossil fuels?
Doesn't it make sense to move as quickly as possible off of fossil fuels?


All of what you said is true, but the Powers that be have neither your's nor mine interest's at the forefront of their Agenda.


When 5 companies make 111 Billion in the last 3 Fiscal Quarter's..well, they dont have to, actually.


The veil is lifting on all this, and one has to become aware of how we have been screwed, hoodwinked and catered to by "control en masse."


Conflict is the root of it all. This may help,it has for me.

"Totally Absolutely Without Conflict"



I dont believe they were being inconsiderate. They were trying to lighten the mood a bit...People here know how deadly these storms are, and certainly have no ill will to any humans their. Do not take some of these posts so personal.
Quoting Patrap:
Doesn't it make sense to move as quickly as possible off of fossil fuels?


All of what you said is true, but the Powers that be have neither your's nor mine interest's at the forefront of their Agenda.


When 5 companies make 111 Billion in the last 3 Fiscal Quarter's..well, they dont have to, actually.


The veil is lifting on all this, and one has to become aware of how we have been screwed, hoodwinked and catered to by "control en masse."


Conflict is the root of it all. This may help,it has for me.

"Totally Absolutely Without Conflict"



I have to say..Everyday that goes by, I realize how dangerous big money can be to the greater good of the Earth and its inhabitants...It makes me want to puke and i,m sick of it...sorry for my negative feelings on the subject..Now back to the regularly scheduled posts.
Round 2 of winter weather for central and north Arkansas today:



Hoping enough of it makes it to GA for 1 or 2 inches before it starts raining, but i doubt it will happen :( .

According to Google Earth winds along the coast of Madagascar are around 38 mph, almost TS strength
Still has good outflow....remarks:
131500z position near 18.8s 50.8e.
Tropical cyclone (tc) 12s (giovanna), located approximately 250 nm
east of Antananarivo, Madagascar, had tracked west-southwestward at
12 knots over the past six hours. Animated multispectral satellite
imagery (msi) shows an intense tc with an approximately 30 nm wide
eye and outer feeder bands currently effecting eastern Madagascar. A
131232z SSMI 85 ghz image shows and outer ring of deep convection
surrounding the inner eyewall convection. Tc 12s is clearly
undergoing another eyewall replacement cycle (erc) but is also 120
nm away from landfall. The erc may not have enough time to complete
the process. However, if it does, than intensities would be slightly
lower as tc giovanna makes landfall, but the radius of maximum winds
would also increase. The current position is based on the eye
feature in msi with high confidence. The current intensity is based
on Dvorak estimates ranging from 115-127 knots from pgtw, knes,
fmee, and fimp. Upper-level analysis indicates that tc 12s has
maintained its self-induced meso-anticyclone providing weak vertical
wind shear (vws) and excellent divergence aloft. Animated water
vapor imagery also continues to show excellent radial outflow. Tc
giovanna is expected to continue tracking westward along the
northern periphery of a subtropical ridge extension located to the
south. It will make landfall over the central eastern coast of
Madagascar shortly before tau 12, then weaken due to frictional and
topographic drag, and exit into the Mozambique Channel by tau 36
before making a secondary and final landfall into southern
Mozambique by tau 120. Tc 12s should briefly re-intensify when over
the Mozambique Channel but begin to weaken by tau 96 due to limited
ocean heat content an increasingly unfavorable vws. The available
numerical guidance is in close agreement with the exception of the
GFDN and ECMWF which bring the vortex poleward after tau 72. This
track forecast is in line with consensus. Maximum significant wave
height at 131200z is 28 feet. Next warnings at 140300z and 141500z.//

Quoting mdshelly:
I'm a little disappointed in some of the comments posted lately. Clearly you are asked to refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion. And saying good luck to the lemurs is not exactly fair. This is the most densely populated area in the country. And further, my 20-year old niece is there with the peace corps, and while I'm sure they've evacuated by now, we haven't heard from her in days. This may not be affecting YOUR area, but it is a serious storm and will affect many people in an area that cannot handle this type of storm.

Sorry ot hear about your niece.. do you know what city she is close to?
The smog in Beijing, India, Africa and everywhere else is directly related to the Madagascar typhoon and the frequency of this type of event. I hope your niece is safe and wish all the best for the affected people and wildlife. I hope everyone will do their fair share to reduce co2 and carbon dust. If they don't, there will be a lot more tragedy to talk about.


Quoting mdshelly:
I'm a little disappointed in some of the comments posted lately. Clearly you are asked to refrain from posting material not relevant to the discussion. And saying good luck to the lemurs is not exactly fair. This is the most densely populated area in the country. And further, my 20-year old niece is there with the peace corps, and while I'm sure they've evacuated by now, we haven't heard from her in days. This may not be affecting YOUR area, but it is a serious storm and will affect many people in an area that cannot handle this type of storm.
75. MTWX
Quoting GeorgiaStormz:
Round 2 of winter weather for central and north Arkansas today:



Hoping enough of it makes it to GA for 1 or 2 inches before it starts raining, but i doubt it will happen :( .

Sleet is changing over to rain now, here in Columbus, MS.
Quoting wxmod:
Arctic sea ice yesterday. How thick is it?



Currently sea ice extent is roughly the same as in 2007 which is the lowest year of record. But volume is 16,500 km3 vs. 19,500 km3, so the ice is about 15% thinner than during the record low year.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/ho me/piomas

We're likely to see extent rise above the 2007 minimum, but with the limited number of weeks left in the freezing season that ice is going to be thin and should melt quickly.

We're not likely to have a normal thick ice "plug" in the Fram Straight which should allow ice to be flushed out into the warmer Atlantic much earlier in the melt season than usual.

If the Atlantic side of the Arctic melts/flushes early the loss of albedo and increased sea temperature could make for significant ice losses.


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Severe weather outbreak at the end of the week?


Maybe near the Gulf Coast as that is where the richest moisture/instability will be.
Quoting BobWallace:


Currently sea ice extent is roughly the same as in 2007 which is the lowest year of record. But volume is 16,500 km3 vs. 19,500 km3, so the ice is about 15% thinner than during the record low year.

https://sites.google.com/site/arctischepinguin/ho me/piomas

We're likely to see extent rise above the 2007 minimum, but with the limited number of weeks left in the freezing season that ice is going to be thin and should melt quickly.

We're not likely to have a normal thick ice "plug" in the Fram Straight which should allow ice to be flushed out into the warmer Atlantic much earlier in the melt season than usual.

If the Atlantic side of the Arctic melts/flushes early the loss of albedo and increased sea temperature could make for significant ice losses.




The photo from MODIS of the ice yesterday shows some major cracks which seem to show that the ice is frail. Can't see how the ice is affected further north though. Do you know if those cracks are normal?
Quoting RTSplayer:



Capitalism is legalized plantationism.

The key improvement is the Masters learned that it works best when the slaves don't realize they are slaves.

A brief glimpse at the Morlocks in the Time Machine shows what I am talking about...very old concept indeed, but it tells the tale well.

A few brain morlocks control all the other morlocks, and the morlocks use the humans for food and slave labor, "consuming" them.

This is how capitalism works.

The CEO and banks are the brain morlock.
A few executives are the other morlocks.
Everyone else is the "humans".

Now the ironic difference is, the "Time Machine" Morlocks were actually concerned with long-term survival, or so he claimed...

The real world Morlocks are not. They are only concerned with abusing everyone else for the duration of their lifetime, regardless of the consequences.

Fuel shortages and "demand spikes" are manipulated to keep normal people in line, imprisoned by the economic system.


imagine if energy was cheap, reliable, renewable, and clean! That would destroy a key control mechanism used by the brain Morlocks! They could never allow that!


Why do you think NASA has a patent on a LENR device for "producing heavy electrons" ? They have even admitted that it's probably useful, but nobody in government or media talks about it?

"Chain Reaction," anyone? Morgan Freeman and Ben Aflek. Nearly free energy that can be produced in your own home for literally a few dollars per year over the long term, without middle-men, will destroy the existing paradigm.

It may even uproot the very foundations of civilization.


So it's time to hunt them down like dogs, you say?
Very impressive storm on the Euro this weekend for FL, coastal GA, and Carolina's. Big rainmaker for FL as well.



Quoting StormTracker2K:
Very impressive storm on the Euro this weekend for FL and coastal GA, and Carolina's. Big rainmaker for FL as well.





Any severe weather forecast for that timeframe?
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Any severe weather forecast for that timeframe?


DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0348 AM CST MON FEB 13 2012

VALID 161200Z - 211200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

UNCERTAINTIES PRESENT FOR THE DAY 3 PERIOD GROW FOR DAY 4...AS
MODELS SUGGEST THAT RICHER GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE RETURN MAY BECOME
CUT OFF FROM THE EASTERN GULF/SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST STATES REGION.
AND POTENTIAL FOR A SUBSTANTIVE MOISTURE RETURN OFF THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC APPEARS LOW...AS A SURFACE CYCLOGENESIS PROCEEDS ACROSS THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION INTO QUEBEC...AND SECONDARY SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS POSSIBLY COMMENCES TO THE EAST OF THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS. HOWEVER...IT SEEMS PROBABLE THAT A STRONGLY SHEARED
REGIME WITH AT LEAST WEAK TO MODEST FORCING FOR UPWARD VERTICAL
MOTION WILL OVERSPREAD PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA/ GEORGIA AND THE
CAROLINAS ON THURSDAY...WHICH COULD CONTRIBUTE TO AN ENVIRONMENT
CONDUCIVE TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF SEVERE STORMS. THEREAFTER...MEDIUM
RANGE MODELS SUGGEST THAT A STALLING SURFACE FRONT NEAR OR JUST
SOUTH OF THE GULF COAST WILL BECOME A FOCUS FOR CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. THIS COULD INCLUDE SOME RISK
FOR STRONG/SEVERE STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN FLORIDA AND THE CENTRAL
PENINSULA.
..BUT SEVERE PROBABILITIES CURRENTLY APPEAR BELOW THE
MINIMUM THRESHOLD NEEDED FOR A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK AREA /EQUIVALENT
30 PERCENT DAY 3/.
Big cold front in the Atlantic..
After this storm this weekend FL and the SE coast is under the gun again. It looks as if a very active pattern is under way for FL.

DAY 10 Euro


DAY 10 GFS
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #19
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
22:00 PM RET February 13 2012
================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Giovanna (932 hPa) located at 19.0S 50.2E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 11 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
50 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
85 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM radius from the center extending up to 145 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
170 NM radius from the center

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 19.6S 47.1E - 30 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 20.9S 43.8E - 25 knots (Perturbation Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.2S 39.5E - 35 knots (Tempête Tropicale Modérée)
72 HRS: 23.8S 37.0E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

SSMIS 1357 PM UTC shows an not completed eyewall replacement cycle. Storm and hurricane force winds extension is therefore more extended and dangerous within landfall and cyclonic swell higher.

Inner eyewall is contracting and mean sea level pressure has been therefore adjusted.

The landfall is expected between Andovoranto and Vatomandry regions.

Gusts should exceed 120 km/h in an area from Mananjary in the south to Sainte-Matie island in the north, should exceed 150 km/h from Nosy-Varika in the south to Toamasina in the north and should exceed 200 km/h from Mahanoro in the south up to 90 km in the north of Andovoranto.

Coastal flooding are expected close in the south of the landfall area in relationship with the combined effect of a storm surge estimated at 2.5 to 3.0 meters and a more than 12 meter high cyclonic swell.

All inhabitants of this sectors are invited to closely follow the arrival of this dangerous cyclone.

Giovanna should be back over sea in the Mozambique Channel Wednesday within a favorable atmospheric environment with a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge. Latest ECMWF run suggests a rapid re-intensification that is reflected in the official RSMC forecast.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 0:30 AM UTC..
Quoting ILwthrfan:


What is the total lag roughly of Temperature reaction to CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere...20 years?


About 20-30 years.
Quoting RitaEvac:


So it's time to hunt them down like dogs, you say?



The morlocks are much too smart for that, plus they have all the guns and the money.


Besides, even if you somehow overthrow the brain morlocks in one nation or region, some other brain morlocks will just take over.

The banks own both your creditor and your employer, and if they want to punish you or take your stuff, all they need do is make a phone call and tell your boss to fire you. You lose your house, which goes back to their member bank which they own, and they got all the currency you paid for your mortgage.


You see, when the same company owns both your employer and your bank, through a complicated web of stocks and brand names and other smoke and mirrors, then they can basicly manipulate you however they want. Even if they don't have 100% ownership, they often have as much as 10% ownership.

Not only do they own your employer and your bank, they also own the grocery store and the shopping center.

They profit by everything you do.

They use the profits to manipulate you ever more.
Japan & nuclear interests along with airline, rocket engineers & such are checking this out.

Thanks for checking the webcam link. I'm still having no luck.
Quoting wxmod:
Arctic sea ice yesterday. How thick is it?



First year ice is less the 1 meter thick, which is now what most of the arctic is comprised of.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


About 20-30 years.


Thanks...
Nice avatar...Bleach IMO is the 2nd best anime of all time.
This date--February 13--in 1899 was the coldest morning ever recorded for many areas. A few sample temperatures:

Tallahassee, FL: -2F
Washington, DC: -15F
Minden, LA: -16F
Monterey, VA: -29F
Atlanta, GA: -9F

This was, of course, part of the Great Blizzard of 1899, which saw the port of New Orleans completely iced over, blizzard conditions on the Florida coast north of Tampa, sub-30 temps into Miami, and a killing frost into Cuba.

Click for larger weather map:
cold
Quoting wxmod:


The photo from MODIS of the ice yesterday shows some major cracks which seem to show that the ice is frail. Can't see how the ice is affected further north though. Do you know if those cracks are normal?
Short answer yes, cracks are completely normal as are ice heaves running for many miles.
Quoting Skyepony:
Japan & nuclear interests along with airline, rocket engineers & such are checking this out.


amazing.

Shortcut saved.

Makes you wonder...


would like to see it hold up in the focal point of a 1m^2 spot Fresnel lens, maybe even 2m^2. If it can hold up in there, it'd survive almost anyhing.



I wonder what this stuff costs to make?

Imagine if you could make thin panels of this stuff to put fire blocks between rooms in a house, or even one every 4 to 8 feet in the wall along one of the studs.

House fires wouldn't be able to spread at all!
Quoting nymore:
Short answer yes, cracks are completely normal as are ice heaves running for many miles.
The cracks are normal. What's abnormal is having so many so large and so early.
Quoting wxmod:


The photo from MODIS of the ice yesterday shows some major cracks which seem to show that the ice is frail. Can't see how the ice is affected further north though. Do you know if those cracks are normal?


I can't answer that question. I know that there has been some discussion on http://neven1.typepad.com/blog/ about increased cracks and that the common held belief is that while the area between the cracks will freeze, that new ice will be quite thin and melt out early.

Thinner ice is going to crack. Wave action creates cracks/fractures and the mechanical action increases melting. As wind/wave operate on thinner ice it gets churned into "party punch slush" which is easily pushed into warmer water where it melts.

At the other pole we're observing an enormous 19 mile long, up to 800 foot wide crack/fissure in the Pine Island Glacier which promises to create an immense ice berg once that fracturing is complete. A 350 square mile, 1,650 foot thick iceberg. 30% as large as Rhode Island.

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2094849/T he-worlds-biggest-iceberg-19-mile-crack-continues- break-away-Antarctica.html
Quoting Neapolitan:
The cracks are normal. What's abnormal is having so many so large and so early.
The colder it gets the more cracks and heaves you get. I will see if you know why. Think Volume and Area in which to fit such volume.

This is not for cracks or heaves caused by wave action
Quoting Neapolitan:
The cracks are normal. What's abnormal is having so many so large and so early.


Wave action? earthquake activity? warmer water?
If I'm reading this correctly it has the 10 degrees line down to Galveston Bay

Quoting jeffs713:

Breeder Reactors also have an incredibly amazing ability to create materials for nuclear weapons, have a rather low energy output, and produce a different type of fuel.

Also, I think Chernobyl and Fukushima should be all you need to explain why nuclear power isn't exactly safe.


By which metric are you using to determine safety? Going by deaths/kwh nuclear is still one of the safest means of generating power.

The reactors are safe. Or rather, they are only as safe as the people managing and operating them. In both cases (Chernobyl and Fukishima), the main reason the reactors failed were due to human negligence.
Quoting Patrap:


why is nobody in the pool?
hiya pat

55 biff4ugo "I got the link to work, but the pictures look identical to the images below. Unless there is zero wind, they must not be refreshing."

If you are talking about the images from the Hotel Adrialana Beach webcams,
the links generating all of the photos connect to the same 2 web addresses:
meteosystem...madagascar and meteosystem...madagascar2
So every time you refresh an old WUpage or click onto a new WUpage with those images, all of the images simultaneously reset to the newest image (refreshed by mateosytem every few minutes).

Not that you'd see anything dramatic. The webcams are located on Nosy Be Island (NOS)
which is still more than 400miles(643kilometres) away from Giovanna's center.

The 2 line-segments connecting the 3 unlabeled dots represent Giovanna's path between
the latest 3 center positions as reported by the JointTyphoonWarningCenter.
TMM is Toamasina, Madagascar's main port. And TNR is Antananarivo, the capital.
The distance between TMM and TNR is ~134miles(216kilometres).
The coastal dot east of TNR is Brickaville, ~53miles(~85kilometres) from Toamasina.
Quoting RitaEvac:
If I'm reading this correctly it has the 10 degrees line down to Galveston Bay

Yes, the 10-degree line was south of San Antonio, all across the Gulf, and into Florida. Pretty incredible...
Quoting nymore:
The colder it gets the more cracks and heaves you get. I will see if you know why. Think Volume and Area in which to fit such volume.

This is not for cracks or heaves caused by wave action
Many of the world's ice sheets are breaking up at an increasing rate, and it's certainly not due to expansion because of cooling temperatures. Those ice sheets are melting and weakening as the water below warms. Simple thermodynamics at work, really.
This looks a little unsettling..
Quoting WaterWitch11:


why is nobody in the pool?
hiya pat

Geez,,Where ya been.?
EWRC is hurting Giovanna. Good for lower winds winds, but an increase in wind radius. In this case, a large wind radius isn't good.

Looking back in time, this was likely Giovanna's peak intensity:





I followed the other link on Skyepony's video link.


I love watching experimentalists like this, who have a much more hands-on approach to science

Man Burns Magnesium Thermite in hand
110. wxmod
Arctic sea ice today.

SH122012 - Tropical Cyclone (>=96 kt) GIOVANNA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)/Loop

click image for loop

ZOOM is available

Quoting Xyrus2000:


By which metric are you using to determine safety? Going by deaths/kwh nuclear is still one of the safest means of generating power.

The reactors are safe. Or rather, they are only as safe as the people managing and operating them. In both cases (Chernobyl and Fukishima), the main reason the reactors failed were due to human negligence.


Add TMI, Davis-Bessie, and all the other "near misses" to the list.

It's pretty much impossible to build and operate nuclear reactors without human involvement. All energy/electricity generation involves humans but nuclear is unique in the level of danger it brings to the table. Not only the danger of catastrophic failure, but the danger of nuclear waste that will exist for centuries.

Wind, geothermal and hydro are already cheaper than new nuclear. Solar is about the same price and tidal should soon be cheaper. In the short run we can back up renewables with inexpensive natural gas and then replace NG with storage as those technologies mature.

Why bother with nuclear when less dangerous and less expensive technology is at hand?

Just think about generation which has no fuel or significant "labor/security" input. We commonly calculate the cost of power based on a 20 year span. Solar panels produce power as cheaply as new nuclear for those 20 years and then will produce electricity for essentially zero cents per kWh for another 20, 30 or more years. Wind is already considerably cheaper than nuclear and after the 20 year payoff period turbines should crank out almost free electricity for another 20+ years.

We can, right now, replace coal with a combination of wind, solar and natural gas and slow climate change. When one considers the health and environmental costs of burning coal and the avoided costs of more "100 year" events moving quickly to renewables would be a huge money saver.

That route leaves those who follow us with established wind farms which will need turbine replacement every 40 or so years and solar arrays which will need panel replacement after 40 (100?) years. And no piles of radioactive waste.




114. wxmod
Quoting BobWallace:


Add TMI, Davis-Bessie, and all the other "near misses" to the list.

It's pretty much impossible to build and operate nuclear reactors without human involvement. All energy/electricity generation involves humans but nuclear is unique in the level of danger it brings to the table. Not only the danger of catastrophic failure, but the danger of nuclear waste that will exist for centuries.

Wind, geothermal and hydro are already cheaper than new nuclear. Solar is about the same price and tidal should soon be cheaper. In the short run we can back up renewables with inexpensive natural gas and then replace NG with storage as those technologies mature.

Why bother with nuclear when less dangerous and less expensive technology is at hand?

Just think about generation which has no fuel or significant "labor/security" input. We commonly calculate the cost of power based on a 20 year span. Solar panels produce power as cheaply as new nuclear for those 20 years and then will produce electricity for essentially zero cents per kWh for another 20, 30 or more years. Wind is already considerably cheaper than nuclear and after the 20 year payoff period turbines should crank out almost free electricity for another 20+ years.

We can, right now, replace coal with a combination of wind, solar and natural gas and slow climate change. When one considers the health and environmental costs of burning coal and the avoided costs of more "100 year" events moving quickly to renewables would be a huge money saver.

That route leaves those who follow us with established wind farms which will need turbine replacement every 40 or so years and solar arrays which will need panel replacement after 40 (100?) years. And no piles of radioactive waste.






I can just imagine the problems Earth is going to have when humans are involved in WW3 and noone is monitoring a thousand nuclear power plants.
Quoting hydrus:
This looks a little unsettling..


Looks like a snowstorm in the making for the northeast!
Quoting yqt1001:
EWRC is hurting Giovanna. Good for lower winds winds, but an increase in wind radius. In this case, a large wind radius isn't good.



lol
Giovanna is starting to feel the effects of land interaction, higher wind shear, and an Eyewall Replacement Cycle it will not complete. Despite this weakening, Giovanna remains a dangerous tropical cyclone that will cause tremendous amounts of damage and significant loss of life. All we can do is pray for those people living in Madagascar.

Quoting yqt1001:
EWRC is hurting Giovanna. Good for lower winds winds, but an increase in wind radius. In this case, a large wind radius isn't good.

Yes > I posted last night that E.R.C would be a good thing if it occurred at the right time...And luck may be on there side as of right now.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


First year ice is less the 1 meter thick, which is now what most of the arctic is comprised of.
and once the sun rises and gets to it 24 hr summer high point everything will be gone and we will start working on that old ice once again first year ice is slop ice anyway
Quoting RitaEvac:


Wave action? earthquake activity? warmer water?


Currently, this year, the Arctic is suffering less ice due to warmer and higher volumes of water from the Atlantic.

Overall Arctic sea ice is being lost to warmer air temperatures. We're observing much more warming at the pole than other parts of the globe. And that's exactly what one would expect with a "thicker blanket of insulation". Greenhouse gases are trapping heat that would normally be lost during the dark months.

Look at the low number of new nighttime low records. Something is holding in heat when it would normally be leaking out.

We've got multiple factors working on ridding the Arctic of sea ice. Warmer air, warmer water coming in from southern waters, stronger storms (more energy in the system) breaking up the ice, and more exposed water (less heat reflected back into space and more heat stored in the water).

Think about that punch bowl. Someone turned up the room heat. Someone is pouring in warmer ginger ale. And someone else is busy stirring the bowl. Should anyone be surprised when the ice melts?
Posting from Morondava, Madagascar.
How does the photo of a hotel and the name of the hotel in Nosy Be contribute to the worth of this page? Updated information would be more in order. We need information and look to you....


looks good keep weakening
Quoting Neapolitan:
...Many of the world's ice sheets are breaking up at an increasing rate, and it's certainly not due to expansion because of cooling temperatures. Those ice sheets are melting and weakening as the water below warms. Simple thermodynamics at work, really.
At this time of year when the ice is expanding, I don't think so. As I said earlier this does not necessarily hold true for the edges of the ice or to glaciers which work on a different mechanism.
Quoting BobWallace:
Look at the low number of new nighttime low records. Something is holding in heat when it would normally be leaking out.
Indeed. Speaking of which, the following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S.:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm
Quoting Remoterivers:
Posting from Morondava, Madagascar.
How does the photo of a hotel and the name of the hotel in Nosy Be contribute to the worth of this page? Updated information would be more in order. We need information and look to you....




WTXS51 PGTW 131500
WARNING ATCP MIL 12S SIO 120213131718
2012021312 12S GIOVANNA 010 01 250 12 SATL 020
T000 187S 0515E 125 R064 050 NE QD 055 SE QD 055 SW QD 050 NW QD R050 115 NE QD 125 SE QD 125 SW QD 115 NW QD R034 195 NE QD 220 SE QD 220 SW QD 195 NW QD
T012 190S 0487E 105
T024 198S 0459E 055
T036 212S 0433E 045 R034 050 NE QD 050 SE QD 060 SW QD 060 NW QD
T048 223S 0413E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T072 236S 0388E 055 R050 020 NE QD 020 SE QD 020 SW QD 020 NW QD R034 065 NE QD 075 SE QD 075 SW QD 060 NW QD
T096 238S 0373E 040
T120 239S 0350E 030
AMP
096HR DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
120HR DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
SUBJ: TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 010
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WARNING NR 010
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
131200Z --- NEAR 18.7S 51.5E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 250 DEGREES AT 12 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 115 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
115 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 195 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
220 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
195 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 18.7S 51.5E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
140000Z --- 19.0S 48.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
141200Z --- 19.8S 45.9E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 14 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
150000Z --- 21.2S 43.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 11 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
151200Z --- 22.3S 41.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 240 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
161200Z --- 23.6S 38.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 260 DEG/ 03 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
171200Z --- 23.8S 37.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
181200Z --- 23.9S 35.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
---
REMARKS:
131500Z POSITION NEAR 18.8S 50.8E.
MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 131200Z IS 28 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 140300Z AND 141500Z.
//
1212020718 126S 717E 15
1212020800 128S 711E 15
1212020806 130S 705E 15
1212020812 133S 693E 15
1212020818 136S 682E 25
1212020900 139S 671E 30
1212020906 139S 661E 30
1212020912 140S 654E 35
1212020918 144S 644E 45
1212021000 148S 636E 50
1212021006 154S 624E 55
1212021012 156S 616E 90
1212021012 156S 616E 90
1212021012 156S 616E 90
1212021018 160S 610E 110
1212021018 160S 610E 110
1212021018 160S 610E 110
1212021100 167S 601E 120
1212021100 167S 601E 120
1212021100 167S 601E 120
1212021106 170S 594E 115
1212021106 170S 594E 115
1212021106 170S 594E 115
1212021112 172S 590E 105
1212021112 172S 590E 105
1212021112 172S 590E 105
1212021118 174S 584E 100
1212021118 174S 584E 100
1212021118 174S 584E 100
1212021200 175S 579E 100
1212021200 175S 579E 100
1212021200 175S 579E 100
1212021206 176S 576E 100
1212021206 176S 576E 100
1212021206 176S 576E 100
1212021212 177S 566E 100
1212021212 177S 566E 100
1212021212 177S 566E 100
1212021218 180S 554E 120
1212021218 180S 554E 120
1212021218 180S 554E 120
1212021300 181S 539E 125
1212021300 181S 539E 125
1212021300 181S 539E 125
1212021306 183S 527E 125
1212021306 183S 527E 125
1212021306 183S 527E 125
1212021312 187S 515E 125
1212021312 187S 515E 125
1212021312 187S 515E 125
NNNN

TPXS10 PGTW 131821

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA)

B. 13/1730Z

C. 19.0S

D. 50.2E

E. ONE/MET7

F. T5.5/6.5/W1.0/24HRS STT: W0.5/06HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 05A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. DG EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# AND DT (NO EYE ADJUSTMENT) OF 5.5. MET YIELDED
6.0, PT 5.5. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
13/1232Z 18.8S 51.2E SSMI


HOUGH
Quoting Remoterivers:
Posting from Morondava, Madagascar.
How does the photo of a hotel and the name of the hotel in Nosy Be contribute to the worth of this page? Updated information would be more in order. We need information and look to you....


912

ABIO10 PGTW 131800

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN

/OCEAN/131800Z-141800ZFEB2012//

REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZFEB2012//

REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131551ZFEB2012//

NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL

/CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//

RMKS/

1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:

(1) AT 131200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 12S (GIOVANNA) WAS LOCATED

NEAR 18.7S 51.5E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST OF ANTANANARIVO,

MADAGASCAR, HAD TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST

SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 125

KNOTS GUSTING TO 150 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTXS31 PGTW 131500) FOR

FURTHER DETAILS.

(2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.1S

100.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.1S 96.1E, APPROXIMATELY 50 NM WEST OF

COCOS ISLAND. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS

CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION OVER A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION

CENTER (LLCC). A 131209Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED

BANDING OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN QUADRANTS OF THE LLCC. RECENT

SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM COCOS ISLAND SHOW WINDS FROM THE NORTHEAST

AT 20 KNOTS AND 1006 MB. CURRENT DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM

PGTW AND KNES INDICATE 30 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE LLCC. UPPER-LEVEL

ANALYSIS INDICATES THE LLCC IS LOCATED A FEW DEGREES EQUATORWARD OF

A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS UNDER WEAK VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD

DIVERGENCE ALOFT. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS GOOD

EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT TO THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW

INTO UPPER-LEVEL TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL

PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. DUE TO INCREASED

CONSOLIDATION OF THE LLCC WITH PERSISTENT CENTRAL CONVECTION AND

INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT, THE POTENTIAL FOR

THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24

HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B (WTXS21 PGTW 131600) FOR

FURTHER DETAILS.

(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.//
Quoting SteveDa1:
On another topic...

Arctic sea ice recovering nicely:



However, since a good portion of the ice is only 1 or 2 years old, expect this to be another record melt season. At the very least in the top 5.



Is this what counts as a "recovery" these days? An average rate of rise over a several day period that is similar to the long-term average rate of rise in January? Sea ice extent increased to the record low threshold... it's recovered!
...



Afternoon everyone... So since this storm is in the southern Hem... Does that mean the South West quadrant of the storm is the most dangerous?
2 big earthquakes in california
5.3
and a 4.3

Wow.

Quoting WxGeekVA:
...




...



Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

...





.............
124:



2011 not only verified the 2010 down anomaly, but exceeded it.

Last year, the sea ice volume anomaly ended being 2500km below the 2007 down anomaly.

If we are 3000km below the 2007 line currently, then it is reasonable that we are on pace to lose 500km or more again this year.

Now that the volume has been decreased so much that it is almost linearly correlated to area, the albedo feedback can increase much more rapidly than it has in the past.

Fortunately, it will likely still be a few decades before the CO2 gets high enough to kill continental snow packs, but that may be the next benchmark after the first complete summer sea ice meltdown. I suppose this will change average winter time albedo in the N. Hemisphere by perhaps a point or more, eventually.

If you change average albedo by 1 point you change forcing by about 10 watts.

Divide by 4.7, that gives roughly 2.1C temperature increase from albedo alone...if it changes by just 1 point for the planetary average...

So as you can see, losing those snowpacks across all those continents will cause far, far more positive feedback than the CO2 itself.

Look at snowpack


Imagine if 10% of the average snowpack disappeared.

Imagine if...50% of it disappeared 35N to 60N.
Quoting Articuno:
2 big earthquakes in california
5.3
and a 4.3

Wow.


now upped to 5.5 wow.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


.............

.............

Ok..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

.............

Ok..


lol my image wasn't working so I modified the comment...
5.5 aint much for Cali
Wasn't there numerous small to moderate quakes in Japan before the big 9.0?
Quoting nymore:
At this time of year when the ice is expanding, I don't think so. As I said earlier this does not necessarily hold true for the edges of the ice or to glaciers which work on a different mechanism.
Normally the growth rate in the Arctic Sea is slowing by now, but this year it's been basically stagnant. As I mentioned earlier, in the past four weeks, just under 20,000 square kilometers of ice area have been added, a mean average of just 707 km2 per day. Over that same time span last year, more than a million square kilometers were added--an amount more than 50 times as great. IOW, there's not a lot of expanding going on at the moment. And yet the ice breaks.
Anyone? I think I got lost in the ICE Quake

Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Afternoon everyone... So since this storm is in the southern Hem... Does that mean the South West quadrant of the storm is the most dangerous?
Giovanna is nearing landfall. Even though the storm isn't quite as strong as it was last night, it will still be a very devastating storm for Madagascar.
Quoting Ameister12:
Giovanna is nearing landfall. Even though the storm isn't quite as strong as it was last night, it will still be a very devastating storm for Madagascar.

T-numbers are running 6.2, 6.0, 6.0, meaning that Giovanna will make landfall with winds near 135-140 mph.
Quoting RitaEvac:
5.5 aint much for Cali

Last time an earthquake of that magnitude hit that part of california was around 8-12 months ago.
They formatted a time stamp for us.


Quoting Ameister12:
Giovanna is nearing landfall. Even though the storm isn't quite as strong as it was last night, it will still be a very devastating storm for Madagascar.


I fear the most for the flooding that will occur. My prayers go to them.
Flakes just starting to fall in C IL, 3-4" expected. Like most this yr, gone in two days as highs near 50 expected midweek.

For those who like costumed pets check out stltoday.com for pics of Soulard Mardi Gras Pet Parade.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

T-numbers are running 6.2, 6.0, 6.0, meaning that Giovanna will make landfall with winds near 135-140 mph.

It's probably going to make landfall around that intensity, unfortunately. All we can do is pray for the people of Madagascar.
Quoting Articuno:

Last time an earthquake of that magnitude hit that part of california was around 8-12 months ago.


So far no reported damage. (I live close to the epicenter and the local radio station has been getting a lot of calls.)

Someone about four miles from me called in to say that their mobile home shook badly. My house's foundation is embedded in rock and I felt nothing.
Quoting BobWallace:


So far no reported damage. (I live close to the epicenter and the local radio station has been getting a lot of calls.)

Someone about four miles from me called in to say that their mobile home shook badly. My house's foundation is embedded in rock and I felt nothing.

Yikes. :/
Quoting earthlydragonfly:
Anyone? I think I got lost in the ICE Quake

Sorry. Yes, the left front quadrant of a Southern Hemisphere cyclone is generally the most intense. And since Giovanna is moving in a WSW direction and is about to move over a coast that runs SSW to NNE, the storm's southwestern quadrant will be at the left front.

One thing that strikes me is that Giovanna seems to be a very slow mover, and that, unfortunately means lots of time for lots of rain to fall. Lots and lots and lots of rain--over a mostly hilly and denuded landscape.

Not to sound apocryphal, but this is going to be a major flooding event.


Snowstorm now forecasted on 4 models on Sunday for the mid-Atlantic....
Quoting Neapolitan:
Normally there growth rate in the Arctic Sea is slowing by now, but this year it's been basically stagnant. As I mentioned earlier, in the past four weeks, just under 20,000 square kilometers of ice area have been added, a mean average of just 707 km2 per day. Over that same time span last year, more than a million square kilometers were added--an amount more than 50 times as great. IOW, there's not a lot of expanding going on at the moment. And yet the ice breaks.
Ice expands in 3 dimensions so while extent also helps cracking or heaving so does thickness. You can witness this effect if you go ice fishing. During the day when it gets warm you will hardly hear or feel the ice crack or heave, keep staying out on the ice as the temperature drops you will hear and feel more cracks and the colder it get the more violent it cracks and heaves.

Don't take my word for it ask Minnesota Mike or 1911Maker (if they have spent much time on a frozen body of water) or anyone who has spent a lot of time on the ice.

Btw the larger the body of water the bigger the problem when surrounded mostly by land
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 13 FEB 2012 Time : 183000 UTC
Lat : 19:07:19 S Lon : 49:55:54 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.5 / 921.2mb/127.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.2 6.0 6.0

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -45.3C Cloud Region Temp : -74.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

Ocean Basin : INDIAN
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : ON
Rapid Dissipation Flag : FLAG

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 200km
- Environmental MSLP : 1002mb

Satellite Viewing Angle : 23.8 degrees



Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


I fear the most for the flooding that will occur. My prayers go to them.

I am worried about that and two other things,
I am worried on the fact that there is alot of mountainous terrain and too much rain can cause mudslides (or landslides im not sure)
I just hope everyone there is secure or at least more then a half got to atleast the western part of Madagascar to seek refuge.
From Snow and Sleet Sunday to 70s today, typical Texas weather.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
From Snow and Sleet Sunday to 70s today, typical Texas weather.

lol
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Snowstorm now forecasted on 4 models on Sunday for the mid-Atlantic....
Mmmmmm is that so...I hope not.I have a very busy weekend comming up for me.Can't afford to put anything on hold.
Quoting washingtonian115:
Mmmmmm is that so...I hope not.I have a very busy weekend comming up for me.Can't afford to put anything on hold.


I do too but it's SNOW! There hasn't been enough so far so I could do with one weekend of being snowed in....
121 Remoterivers "Posting from Morondava, Madagascar.
How does the photo of a hotel and the name of the hotel in Nosy Be contribute to the worth of this page? Updated information would be more in order. We need information and look to you...
"

It doesn't except to demonstrate the extent of the area that Giovanna is affecting.
Problem is, the eg JointTyphoonWarningCenter issues reports every 6hours. The timing of the JTWC's public advisories is restricted by "agreements between sovereign nations" giving local weather services first say and more frequent say.

And those local sovereign nations' weather advisories&forecasts are only so-so. Not their fault: small and/or underdeveloped nations ain't got the multi-billion dollars to build&operate computer centers to handle all of the incoming data. Which leaves them guesstimating the latest conditions and making forecasts based on hours-old info provided by the LARGE FirstWorld weather services.

Admittedly it doesn't help that JTWC is consistently extremely late in providing public updates:
eg "Tropical Cyclone 12S (Giovanna) Warning #10 Issued at 13/1500Z [3pmGMT]"
for the nominal "131200Z [noonGMT]" update.
Quoting nymore:
Ice expands in 3 dimensions so while extent also helps cracking or heaving so does thickness. You can witness this effect if you go ice fishing. During the day when it gets warm you will hardly hear or feel the ice crack or heave, keep staying out on the ice as the temperature drops you will hear and feel more cracks and the colder it get the more violent it cracks and heaves.

Don't take my word for it ask Minnesota Mike or 1911Maker or anyone who has spent a lot of time on the ice.

Btw the larger the body of water the bigger the problem when surrounded mostly by land
Oh, I've lived and worked on and around the ice in Minnesota, Canada, North Dakota, Wyoming, etc., so I have a good understanding of its behavior. (I used to play hockey on the frozen St. Croix River, and was always amazed at just how thunderously loud the BOOM! of the cracking ice could be as the temperature dropped in the evening.) My point was, however, that compared to past years, Arctic Sea ice is not really expanding much this year at all--just a few percent of normal--so the large-scale cracking and fissuring we're seeing on satellite is most likely not due to simple expansion. (Too, there are more polynas in the area than usual, and that's a cause for wonder, if not concern.)
Quoting WxGeekVA:


I do too but it's SNOW! There hasn't been enough so far so I could do with one weekend of being snowed in....
Well right now our local forecast has a high of 52 on Sunday.Could be some future changes then.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Snowstorm now forecasted on 4 models on Sunday for the mid-Atlantic....

It's entirely too warm for that. Temperatures will be in the 50s here in North Carolina all the way up to D.C.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's entirely too warm for that. Temperatures will be in the 50s here in North Carolina all the way up to D.C.


Right now they are but Sunday they might not be....
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Right now they are but Sunday they might be....

That IS for Sunday.

Mine--

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Washington, D.C.--

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That IS for Sunday.

Mine--

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Washington, D.C.--

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.
Their have been times where the forecast has change dramatically in the past.I've witnessed it a few times.February 6 2007 comes to mind...Do I hope for snow?.No not this time around I have some busy things to attend to.Maybe later before it starts to warm up.
Quoting aspectre:
121 Remoterivers "Posting from Morondava, Madagascar.
How does the photo of a hotel and the name of the hotel in Nosy Be contribute to the worth of this page? Updated information would be more in order. We need information and look to you...
"

It doesn't except to demonstrate the extent of the area that Giovanna is affecting.
Problem is, the eg JointTyphoonWarningCenter issues reports every 6hours. The timing of the JTVC's public advisories is restricted by "agreements between sovereign nations" giving local weather services first say and more frequent say.

And those local sovereign nations' weather advisories&forecasts are only so-so. Not their fault: small and/or underdeveloped nations ain't got the multi-billion dollars to build&operate computer centers to handle all of the incoming data. Which leaves them guesstimating the latest conditions and making forecasts based on hours-old info provided by the LARGE FirstWorld weather services.

And it doesn't help that JTWC is consistently extremely late in providing updates:
eg "Tropical Cyclone 12S (Giovanna) Warning #10 Issued at 13/1500Z [3pmGMT]"
for the nominal "131200Z [noonGMT]" update.


there are plenty of other weather forecasting offices issuing updates on Giovanna then the JTWC.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It's entirely too warm for that. Temperatures will be in the 50s here in North Carolina all the way up to D.C.


:D GFS says 47 for me, NWS 52. i expect the NWS will low theirs a few degrees until it is very close to the GFS temperature. seems they always fall into line with GFS on temperature when its close..
Quoting Ameister12:
Giovanna is nearing landfall. Even though the storm isn't quite as strong as it was last night, it will still be a very devastating storm for Madagascar.
That looks really bad.

maybe it would snow some in the morning when its freezing, then change to rain during the day. i would hope to have some thunderstorms but i gotta wait for that
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That IS for Sunday.

Mine--

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Washington, D.C.--

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.



This is mine:

Saturday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 47.

Saturday Night: Partly cloudy, with a low around 30.

Sunday: Partly cloudy, with a high near 45.

Sunday Night: Mostly clear, with a low around 30.




We have landfall.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That IS for Sunday.

Mine--

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Washington, D.C.--

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.


Thats with no low pumping in cold air off the coast, if the forecast changes you could see them fall. However nothing on the GFS is showing that happening.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Thats with no low pumping in cold air off the coast, if the forecast changes you could see them fall. However nothing on the GFS is showing that happening.


In this case, the GFS is the outlier....
Updated Reynolds SST anomaly.



S. Atlantic cold anomaly is more than offset by the warm anomalys.

Warm anomaly grew in both the Gulf and the Nw. Atlantic.




Pacific side seems to have warmed "slightly" from top to bottom.
Quoting yqt1001:




We have landfall.

145 mph winds.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

145 mph winds.
doesnt look like 145 eyewall collapsed and thanks to the shear it probably is making landfall as a cat 3 and also another EWRC aswell save madagascar from a 4 but it really doesnt matter it will have the same devastating effects
Quoting yqt1001:




We have landfall.
B****.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

145 mph winds.


Strongest landfall since Nalgae (September 2011). Strongest storm since Nalgae also. Excluding Nalgae, you have to go all the way back to Nanmandol in August to find another stronger cyclone and landfall. (Hilary peaked at 125kts in September though)

2011 was really a boring year when it came to strong cyclones. 2012 isn't shaping up to be a strong storm year either.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:
doesnt look like 145 eyewall collapsed and thanks to the shear it probably is making landfall as a cat 3 and also another EWRC aswell save madagascar from a 4 but it really doesnt matter it will have the same devastating effects

Dvorak numbers still support Category 4 hurricane status at this moment.
Quoting yqt1001:


Strongest landfall since Nalgae (September 2011). Strongest storm since Nalgae also. Excluding Nalgae, you have to go all the way back to Nanmandol in August to find another stronger cyclone and landfall. (Hilary peaked at 125kts in September though)

2011 was really a boring year when it came to strong cyclones. 2012 isn't shaping up to be a strong storm year either.
So? Its'nt that better?.I'm sure the Phillipines wouldn't want a repeat of 2009 and what they had to go through.Nor Florida and the Gulf coast would want a repeat of 04/05....
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Dvorak numbers still support Category 4 hurricane status at this moment.
they will drop take a look on satalite her eye is clouded and her eyew on ingrared is filled and collapsed reminds me of jova when she was a 115mph or 120mph cat 3
Toamasina, Madagascar weather station:


Current Temperature: 24°C
High: 29°C | Low: 25°C
Rain/Windy
Visibility: 4.01 km
Feels like: 24°C
Humidity: 89%
Wind: 61.15 km/h

Updated Mon, 13 Feb 2012 8:59 pm EAT
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Snowstorm now forecasted on 4 models on Sunday for the mid-Atlantic....


when is this?????


overland significanly weaker and continues to weaken
Quoting washingtonian115:
So? It's that better?.I'm sure the Phillipines wouldn't want a repeat of 2009 and what they had to go through.Nor Florida and the Gulf coast would want a repeat of 04/05....


Yes, it's better, but it's been boring! We haven't had a storm above 140kts in over a year.
Quoting yqt1001:


Yes, it's better, but it's been boring! We haven't had a storm above 140kts in over a year.

la nina dying wont help if we get el nino forgot about getting a cat 5 although andrew was a lucky case if we get neutral expect 13 to 16 storms and maybe something strong

GFS trends West with the storm!!!

18Z run:


12Z run: (same time)

Quoting Neapolitan:
Oh, I've lived and worked on and around the ice in Minnesota, Canada, North Dakota, Wyoming, etc., so I have a good understanding of its behavior. (I used to play hockey on the frozen St. Croix River, and was always amazed at just how thunderously loud the BOOM! of the cracking ice could be as the temperature dropped in the evening.) My point was, however, that compared to past years, Arctic Sea ice is not really expanding much this year at all--just a few percent of normal--so the large-scale cracking and fissuring we're seeing on satellite is most likely not due to simple expansion. (Too, there are more polynas in the area than usual, and that's a cause for wonder, if not concern.)
hockey on the St. Croix, eh? doubt much of that is going on this year around here :(
a big BOOM would mean bad news after the winter we've been having..
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That IS for Sunday.

Mine--

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 55.

Washington, D.C.--

Sunday: Mostly sunny, with a high near 50.


If the Euro is right then your numbers will be wrong again:) The Euro really wants to blow a system up in the eastern Gulf and send it NE up the SE Coast.
Quoting yqt1001:


Yes, it's better, but it's been boring! We haven't had a storm above 140kts in over a year.
I like seeing strong storms as much of the nest guy.But the less the sorta better?.Especially for people in hurricane ally.Ooooooof course that doesn't mean tropical storms can't do no harm.
Quoting wunderweatherman123:

la nina dying wont help if we get el nino forgot about getting a cat 5 although andrew was a lucky case if we get neutral expect 13 to 16 storms and maybe something strong



El Nino is great for 140kts or more cyclones. During an El Nino year there are tons of category 5 cyclones in the pacific. The atlantic will go bust, but the other basins usually light up in place.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I like seeing strong storms as much of the nest guy.But the less the sorta better?.Especially for people in hurricane ally.Ooooooof course that doesn't mean tropical storms can't do no harm.


Well you have to remember that the only tropical cyclone I've been in is Bonnie. I've never really lived the "experience" of a tropical storm.
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Toamasina, Madagascar weather station:


Current Temperature: 24°C
High: 29°C | Low: 25°C
Rain/Windy
Visibility: 4.01 km
Feels like: 24°C
Humidity: 89%
Wind: 61.15 km/h

Updated Mon, 13 Feb 2012 8:59 pm EAT


convert that to mph/kts please :)
AWCN16 CWHX 131920
Special weather summary message for Newfoundland and Labrador issued
by Environment Canada at 3:50 PM NST Monday 13 February 2012.

An intense storm system developed south of Nova Scotia on Saturday
and tracked northward into the Gulf of St. Lawrence on Sunday.
This storm affected the entire province. Heavy rain and hurricane
force wind gusts caused flooding and power outages over parts of the
island.

The following are updated unofficial rainfall (millimetres) amounts
as of 8:30 AM NST Monday observed at:
Logy bay .............................93.0 mm
Pippy park .............................72.0 mm
St. John's airport............................70.2 mm
Wreckhouse .............................53.2 mm
Port aux Basques .............................34.0 mm
Burgeo .............................30.5 mm
St. Lawrence .............................26.3 mm
Argentia .............................26.1 mm
Bonavista .............................25.6 mm
Cape Race .............................22.5 mm
Terra Nova park .............................21.8 mm
Gander .............................19.6 mm

The following are updated unofficial maximum wind observations:
Wreckhouse .................................148 km/h
Note..The wind equipment at Wreckhouse failed at the peak of the
storm.

Sagona Island.................................139 km/h
Bell island lighthouse private station .......129 km/h
Burgeo........................................124 km/h
St. Anthony...................................122 km/h
Daniel's Harbour..............................120 km/h
Stephenville airport..........................120 km/h
Twillingate...................................119 km/h
Bonavista.....................................117 km/h
Port aux Basques..............................115 km/h
Argentia......................................107 km/h
Cape Race.....................................107 km/h
St. John's airport............................107 km/h
Winterland .................................107 km/h
St. Lawrence..................................106 km/h
Deer Lake airport..............................90 km/h

End/


Quoting StormTracker2K:


If the Euro is right then your numbers will be wrong again:) The Euro really wants to blow a system up in the eastern Gulf and send it NE up the SE Coast.


I really hope so!!
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If the Euro is right then your numbers will be wrong again:) The Euro really wants to blow a system up in the eastern Gulf and send it NE up the SE Coast.

They're not my numbers, they're the NWS's. :)
Quoting SPLbeater:


convert that to mph/kts please :)



65 (kph / mph) = 40.3891275 MPH. Tropical storm force conditions being reported....
Quoting yqt1001:


Well you have to remember that the only tropical cyclone I've been in is Bonnie. I've never really lived the "experience" of a tropical storm.


i was in floyd...but i wasnt able to remember it :D

I was just outside of the rain shield in irene, 30mph winds wit 40mph gusts, but that dont count
Looks as if the trend this weekend will be for severe wx in FL Saturday then a snowstorm on Sunday across the Mid Atlantic infact I will go on a limb and say somebody east of DC could get 6" plus as even the GFS is now pumping some significant cold on the backside of this low forming off NC.
Quoting WxGeekVA:



65 (kph / mph) = 40.3891275 MPH. Tropical storm force conditions being reported....


:D

i dont like kilometers.
Good afternoon/evening all. Madagascar is getting hit hard today... prayers go out to them. Also saw the fairly big earthquake in California... Interesting stuff there too
aspectre "...Problem is, the eg JointTyphoonWarningCenter issues reports every 6hours...
...And it doesn't help that JTWC is consistently extremely late in providing updates:
eg "Tropical Cyclone 12S (Giovanna) Warning #10 Issued at 13/1500Z [3pmGMT]"
for the nominal "131200Z [noonGMT]" update."
170 SPLbeater "There are plenty of other weather forecasting offices issuing updates on Giovanna than the JTWC."

True, hence my use of "eg" (exempli gratia : for the sake of example) to denote that I was using the JTWC as an example of the problems one encounters in getting&reporting reliable&timely information from FirstWorld weather services about storms located in nonFirstWorld areas.
Quoting SPLbeater:


i was in floyd...but i wasnt able to remember it :D

I was just outside of the rain shield in irene, 30mph winds wit 40mph gusts, but that dont count

I've been through Floyd (don't remember), Alex, Charley, Ophelia, Irene, and many more that I can't quite remember.

Out of all of these, believe it or not, Ophelia had to be the worse. The winds were literally screaming outside, we had pieces of our roof flying off, and lots of flooding. It was pitch black too because the storm made landfall at night, and we lost power and didn't have a generator.
Quoting StormTracker2K:


If the Euro is right then your numbers will be wrong again:) The Euro really wants to blow a system up in the eastern Gulf and send it NE up the SE Coast.
Nooooooooooo.Out of all weekends why this one?.
Quoting yqt1001:


Well you have to remember that the only tropical cyclone I've been in is Bonnie. I've never really lived the "experience" of a tropical storm.
Well I've been through several that have come up from N.C or VA.Even as a native Washingtonian we've had some strong winter storms and being stuck without power is no fun.Along with the insurance companies and the clean up....
Quoting aspectre:
aspectre "...Problem is, the eg JointTyphoonWarningCenter issues reports every 6hours...
...And it doesn't help that JTWC is consistently extremely late in providing updates:
eg "Tropical Cyclone 12S (Giovanna) Warning #10 Issued at 13/1500Z [3pmGMT]"
for the nominal "131200Z [noonGMT]" update."
170 SPLbeater "There are plenty of other weather forecasting offices issuing updates on Giovanna than the JTWC."

True, hence my use of "eg" (exempli gratia : for the sake of example) to denote that I was using the JTWC as an example of the problems one encounters in getting&reporting reliable&timely information from FirstWorld weather services about storms located in nonFirstWorld areas.


Link

There are your 'other' weather offices :D
Who says category 5 atlantic storms don't form in el nino years?

Camille
Andrew
Mitch


?

2 of them made landfall AS category 5...and Mitch could have land fall as a 5 if it didn't stall out.

Mitch ended up being the most deadly atlantic storm in many decades. If you take all atlantic hurricane and TS deaths since, including 2003, 2004, and 2005, it still doesn't add up to Mitch.


These are 3 of the worst landfalls in Atlantic basin history, and they all happened in El Nino years.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've been through Floyd (don't remember), Alex, Charley, Ophelia, Irene, and many more that I can't quite remember.

Out of all of these, believe it or not, Ophelia had to be the worse. The winds were literally screaming outside, we had pieces of our roof flying off, and lots of flooding. It was pitch black too because the storm made landfall at night, and we lost power and didn't have a generator.


i think that i was caught in TS Alberto of 06...i was with my family at the outer banks. the waves were coming up to the dunes and knocking the trash cans over. winds were pretty rough, TS force. one thing i remember is watching the seagulls fly sideways lol.

other then that.....nothin :D
A winter storm would be welcome have only had a dusting this year so far. I'm looking forward to the 0z gfs
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
A winter storm would be welcome have only had a dusting this year so far. I'm looking forward to the 0z gfs

I've had 0"...
Quoting RTSplayer:
Who says category 5 atlantic storms don't form in el nino years?

Camille
Andrew
Mitch


?

2 of them made landfall AS category 5...and Mitch could have land fall as a 5 if it didn't stall out.

Mitch ended up being the most deadly atlantic storm in many decades. If you take all atlantic hurricane and TS deaths since, including 2003, 2004, and 2005, it still doesn't add up to Mitch.


These are 3 of the worst landfalls in Atlantic basin history, and they all happened in El Nino years.
I know pretty ironic right?.I just hope people don't let their guard down thinking 'Oh we'll be safe it's an El nino going on".That's certanily not true.And you've listed pretty good examples.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've had 0"...


HA I win! Well lets hope it hits that gulf stream and bombs out.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I've had 0"...
You probally have me on ignore but hope you get some before this sorry winter leaves the stage.Grrr I'm still up set that some of my plans will have to be cancled...If that forecast by the modles hold true.
Quoting washingtonian115:
You probally have me on ignore but hope you get some before this sorry winter leaves the stage.Grrr I'm still up set that some of my plans will have to be cancled...If that forecast by the modles hold true.

Why would I have you on ignore? lol.

I want snow so badly. :(
Quoting washingtonian115:
You probally have me on ignore but hope you get some before this sorry winter leaves the stage.Grrr I'm still up set that some of my plans will have to be cancled...If that forecast by the modles hold true.


Everyone knows if you want bad weather make outside plans! Haha
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Why would I have you on ignore? lol.

I want snow so badly. :(
Everyone on the east coast (except for the snow haters) want snow very badly.The ski resorts have not been doing that good this year.Some are closing the slopes early.
The next 7 days looks interesting, first a possible severe weather event, then a possible snowstorm.
(Neither of which will probably affect me)

By the way, which has been the most reliable model this year, I think it has been the GFS, at least for the southeast US.

All of Google Earth's Madagascar weather stations on the coast are down. Oh well it was bound to happen :(
Quoting SPLbeater:


convert that to mph/kts please :)


Just type your conversion into google.

So, for example, if someone posts "60km/h" you would type:
"60 kilometers per hour to miles to per hour" into a google search bar. Works for many different types of units.
185 WxGeekVA "Toamasina, Madagascar weather station:
Current Temperature: 24C
High: 29C | Low: 25C
Rain/Windy
Visibility: 4.01 km
Feels like: 24C
Humidity: 89%
Wind: 61.15 km/h
"

Is the timestamp for that report near the time of landfall?
If so, it appears that landfall occurred more than 90miles southsouthwest of Toamasina.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Everyone knows if you want bad weather make outside plans! Haha
I know.It's like the Doc having vacation plans during hurricane season.And something "miraculously forms".
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
LOLOL.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Looks as if the trend this weekend will be for severe wx in FL Saturday then a snowstorm on Sunday across the Mid Atlantic infact I will go on a limb and say somebody east of DC could get 6" plus as even the GFS is now pumping some significant cold on the backside of this low forming off NC.
local weather guys are hinting for something this weekend, keep us informed ok and ty
Quoting WxGeekVA:
Let rain!.Let sleet!.Let errr what did the guy on that car commercial say again?? Can't think about it right now.
Oh yeah, Here is hurricane Isabel, which became a 5, and did a lot of damage too.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isabel

2003

and

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Igor came very close 2010.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Opal came very close 1995


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Inez came very close in 1966, considering how much more primitive technology was back then, it could have beena 5 briefly and nobody would know the difference.


So 4 of the last 9 el ninos had category 5's, all of which eventually made landfall, 2 of which landfalled as category 5.

3 of the other 5 el ninos had borderline cat4/cat5 storms, all of which made landfall.


From the remaining 2, Alicia was a category 3, multi-billion dollar storm.


I guess that would be el nino myth busted?
Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh yeah, Here is hurricane Isabel, which became a 5, and did a lot of damage too.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isabel

2003

and

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Igor came very close 2010.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Opal came very close 1995


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Inez came very close in 1966, considering how much more primitive technology was back then, it could have beena 5 briefly and nobody would know the difference.


So 4 of the last 9 el ninos had category 5's, all of which eventually made landfall, 2 of which landfalled as category 5.

3 of the other 5 el ninos had borderline cat4/cat5 storms, all of which made landfall.


From the remaining 2, Alicia was a category 3, multi-billion dollar storm.


I guess that would be el nino myth busted?


Ugh Isabel, those trees in my avatar hated Isabel.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...

LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT WITH AN ACCUMULATION
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL YOU SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH
YOUR INTENDED DESTINATION.


Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


Ugh Isabel, those trees in my avatar hated Isabel.
Ooooooh that Isabel....Hate her so much.She knocked power out for my area for two weeks.And flooded my basement along with several fallen trees everywhere.The power lines were down so we had to be very careful.My food rotted and you could smell it right before you even hit the kitchen.
Quoting RTSplayer:
Oh yeah, Here is hurricane Isabel, which became a 5, and did a lot of damage too.


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hurricane_Isabel

2003

and

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Igor came very close 2010.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1995_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Opal came very close 1995


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1966_Atlantic_hurric ane_season

Inez came very close in 1966, considering how much more primitive technology was back then, it could have beena 5 briefly and nobody would know the difference.


So 4 of the last 9 el ninos had category 5's, all of which eventually made landfall, 2 of which landfalled as category 5.

3 of the other 5 el ninos had borderline cat4/cat5 storms, all of which made landfall.


From the remaining 2, Alicia was a category 3, multi-billion dollar storm.


I guess that would be el nino myth busted?


2009, 2006 and 2004 were the only El Nino years in the last decade. 1995 was also a La Nina year.
Quoting Ameister12:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012

INZ050-058-059-066-073>075-080-KYZ089>097-O HZ026- 034-035-042>046-
051>056-060>065-070>074-077>080-14030 0-
WAYNE-FAYETTE IN-UNION IN-FRANKLIN IN-RIPLEY-DEARBORN-OHIO-
SWITZERLAND-CARROLL-GALLATIN-BOONE-KENTON-CAMPBEL L-OWEN-GRANT-
PENDLETON-BRACKEN-HARDIN-MERCER-AUGLAIZE-DARKE-SH ELBY-LOGAN-
UNION OH-DELAWARE-MIAMI-CHAMPAIGN-CLARK-MADISON-FRANKLIN OH-
LICKING-PREBLE-MONTGOMERY-GREENE-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
BUTLER-WARREN-CLINTON-ROSS-HOCKING-HAMILTON-CLERM ONT-BROWN-
HIGHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...RICHMOND...CONNERSVILLE...LIBERTY...
BROOKVILLE...VERSAILLES...LAWRENCEBURG...RISING SUN...VEVAY...
CARROLLTON...WARSAW...BURLINGTON...INDEPENDENCE.. .ALEXANDRIA...
OWENTON...WILLIAMSTOWN...FALMOUTH...BROOKSVILLE.. .KENTON...
CELINA...WAPAKONETA...GREENVILLE...SIDNEY...BELLE FONTAINE...
MARYSVILLE...DELAWARE...PIQUA...URBANA...SPRINGFI ELD...LONDON...
COLUMBUS...NEWARK...EATON...DAYTON...XENIA...
WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...HAMILTON...
LEBANON...WILMINGTON...CHILLICOTHE...LOGAN...CINC INNATI...
MILFORD...GEORGETOWN...HILLSBORO
138 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...

LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT WITH AN ACCUMULATION
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL YOU SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH
YOUR INTENDED DESTINATION.


Does this include D.C??.If so what about me???
Quoting BobWallace:
Add TMI, Davis-Bessie, and all the other "near misses" to the list.

It's pretty much impossible to build and operate nuclear reactors without human involvement.


I never said otherwise. But Chernobyl was caused by unimaginable stupidity. Fukishima was caused by desire for profits (Pay to upgrade plant, or keep it running another 10 years?).

Newer designs make meltdown pretty much impossible. If we can utilize thorium then meltdowns become physically impossible.

All energy/electricity generation involves humans but nuclear is unique in the level of danger it brings to the table. Not only the danger of catastrophic failure, but the danger of nuclear waste that will exist for centuries.


I disagree. First, we already have technology to greatly reduce the waste problem, but we have chosen not to use it. Second, the pollution produced by traditional power sources (such as coal) is causing far more harm than nuclear, even including nuclear accidents.

Wind, geothermal and hydro are already cheaper than new nuclear. Solar is about the same price and tidal should soon be cheaper. In the short run we can back up renewables with inexpensive natural gas and then replace NG with storage as those technologies mature.


While I agree, this relies on a) No one throwing up idiotic political roadblocks, b) the storage technology will exist, and c) assuming that there will be enough fossil fuels to satisfy world demand without significantly increasing energy prices between then and now. This is also ignoring what impacts there could be from continued use of fossil fuels at an increasing rate for the next decades/centuries it will take to make a full transition.

Why bother with nuclear when less dangerous and less expensive technology is at hand?


Because it isn't. Our infrastructure is not set up to handle renewables. Some areas can't really utilize renewables, or if they can you have to be a little careful about how they do it. I'm not saying it can't be done, but there are a lot of ancillary costs and considerations that need to be taken into account. That's why the reports on an all-green power setup typically say 2050 is about the earliest it would be feasible.

Just think about generation which has no fuel or significant "labor/security" input. We commonly calculate the cost of power based on a 20 year span. Solar panels produce power as cheaply as new nuclear for those 20 years and then will produce electricity for essentially zero cents per kWh for another 20, 30 or more years.


That's assuming you live in area that gets enough sun to make it worthwhile. You also have the sporadic nature of solar to deal with. With the current efficiencies of solar, it would take a lot of solar panels to offset a significant percentage of the current grid.

Wind is already considerably cheaper than nuclear and after the 20 year payoff period turbines should crank out almost free electricity for another 20 years.


Again, that's assuming your in an area that can take advantage of wind power. With climate change, these areas may even shift over time. There's also the sporadic nature of wind power as well.

We can, right now, replace coal with a combination of wind, solar and natural gas and slow climate change.


We can do it with natural gas, but wind and solar won't help all that much until we have the grid in place that can handle it. Sure, if you're just looking at MW numbers then it's possible, but transitioning takes a lot more than just producing the power. That's the easy part.

When one considers the health and environmental costs of burning coal and the avoided costs of more "100 year" events moving quickly to renewables would be a huge money saver. That route leaves those who follow us with established wind farms which will need turbine replacement every 40 or so years and solar arrays which will need panel replacement after 40 (100?) years.


If renewables were a simple drop in for our current production, then I'd agree. But it isn't that simple. It's sort of like electric cars. It would be far more efficient to have everyone drive electric cars and burn the fuel in a powerplant. But even assuming you had the battery tech for long drives and quick recharges, our grid would burst into flames if we tried to do this.

And no piles of radioactive waste.


The waste isn't the problem. The problem is we aren't reprocessing it back into fuel.
Howdy, folks...snowing in central Missouri, about 4" down and the rest of the evening to go...
Quoting washingtonian115:
Does this include D.C??.If so what about me???

NWS in Washington/Baltimore
You might get some.
2300Z

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)


Quoting Ameister12:

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
138 PM EST MON FEB 13 2012

...ACCUMULATING SNOW WILL SLOW THE MORNING COMMUTE...

LIGHT SNOW WILL DEVELOP LATE THIS EVENING THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THE
SNOW WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY LATE TONIGHT WITH AN ACCUMULATION
OF 1 TO 2 INCHES EXPECTED BY SUNRISE. THE SNOW MAY RESULT IN SLICK
SPOTS ON ROADS LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AND WILL IMPACT
THE MORNING COMMUTE.

IF YOU ARE PLANNING TRAVEL YOU SHOULD ALLOW EXTRA TIME TO REACH
YOUR INTENDED DESTINATION.



Yeah. Yeah, I AM jelly. :|
Quoting yqt1001:


2009, 2006 and 2004 were the only El Nino years in the last decade. 1995 was also a La Nina year.


Then what is this?




This shows:

2010
2003
1998
1995
1992
1983
1969
1966
1958


Is the encyclopedia wrong?
Quoting RTSplayer:


Then what is this?




This shows:

2010
2003
1998
1995
1992
1983
1969
1966
1958


Is the encyclopedia wrong?


I'd go by this list.

There is no way that 2010 and 1995 were not La Nina. Those 2 years tie 2011 for record storms in the Atlantic...not something an El-Nino can pull (often enough for it to happen 3 times in 2 decades).
Quoting Ameister12:

NWS in Washington/Baltimore
You might get some.
The sites not working for me for some odd reason.
Quoting RTSplayer:


Then what is this?




This shows:

2010
2003
1998
1995
1992
1983
1969
1966
1958


Is the encyclopedia wrong?


That shows exactly what he said... 3 in the last decade.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


That shows exactly what he said... 3 in the last decade.


In the wrong years...lol...

Quoting washingtonian115:
The sites not working for me for some odd reason.


Don't get your hopes up, it's for Leesburg and places west that might see an inch from it....
Quoting yqt1001:


I'd go by this list.

There is no way that 2010 and 1995 were not La Nina. Those 2 years tie 2011 for record storms in the Atlantic...not something an El-Nino can pull (often enough for it to happen 3 times in 2 decades).

Both years transitioned to La Nina in JJA/JAS (June, July, August/July, August, September).
Quoting WxGeekVA:


Don't get your hopes up, it's for Leesburg and places west that might see an inch from it....
Well seeing some fall wouldn't be that bad.It's cold enough.When it's cold and nothing is happening it's almost pointless...
I just finished a short blog on all the activity in the Southern Hemisphere. I'd love a little constructive feedback since I'm still very new at this. Thanks!
That I remember 1998 was not el Niño 1997 was EL Niño
Quoting yqt1001:


I'd go by this list.

There is no way that 2010 and 1995 were not La Nina. Those 2 years tie 2011 for record storms in the Atlantic...not something an El-Nino can pull (often enough for it to happen 3 times in 2 decades).



So you're saying the chart in wikipedia is completely backwards?

the temperature spike on 1998 on the chart makes sense because 1998 was at that time the hottest year on record, and still is one of the top 5, and you can count left and right on each of them to find the other ones.




The high temperature spike is 1998, because 1998 was the hottest year on record.

If 1998 is supposed to be la nina, then it should be blue.

And if ou lost track of the years, you can just count up or down from 1998, which is easily the hottest year up to that time.


Either way, one of these products is completely wrong...on EVERY freaking year...

Additionally, the far right bar is 2011, which is la nina like it should be, and if you count backwards, 1998 is indeed the tall red bar.
So anyone wanna talk about that possible snow storm on Sunday...
Quoting washingtonian115:
So anyone wanna talk about that possible snow storm on Sunday...



ME, ME, ME!
If you guys did not already know there was a 5.6 and a 4.3 in CA today. Earthquake activity on the increase?
Quoting washingtonian115:
So anyone wanna talk about that possible snow storm on Sunday...
Did not know there was one and were is it supposed to happen?
1998 was la nina from june to december el nino existed fron january of 98 to june
Quoting Xyrus2000

Newer designs make meltdown pretty much impossible. If we can utilize thorium then meltdowns become physically impossible.

Yes, new designs probably eliminate meltdowns due to loss of grid/backup generator power. But they do not solve the problem of leaks nor fix the problem of hazardous waste.

They also do not solve the problems of cost and time to implement.

We could reprocess spent fuel but that adds to the cost.

While I agree, this relies on a) No one throwing up idiotic political roadblocks, b) the storage technology will exist, and c) assuming that there will be enough fossil fuels to satisfy world demand without significantly increasing energy prices between then and now. This is also ignoring what impacts there could be from continued use of fossil fuels at an increasing rate for the next decades/centuries it will take to make a full transition.

Political roadblocks to renewables are falling right and left. Multiple attempts to create wind-damaging legislation in conservative states have failed. Republican governors are backing wind farms.

It's become clear that renewables turn a profit and create both jobs and tax revenues.

We have storage technology right now. Pump up works great and utility scale battery storage is beginning to be installed. As battery prices fall we'll see lots more battery storage coming on line.

And we're not looking at lots of decades, certainly not centuries for a full transition. It's something that could be done in 20-30 years. We can move from coal to renewables much faster than we can replace coal with nuclear.

With a combination of wind, solar, natural gas and increased efficiency we could get all our coal plants shut down in a couple of decades.

We can do it with natural gas, but wind and solar won't help all that much until we have the grid in place that can handle it. Sure, if you're just looking at MW numbers then it's possible, but transitioning takes a lot more than just producing the power. That's the easy part.

I don't think you realize how usable wind and solar are. We're already seeing them cut into fossil fuel usage. And both wind and solar are beginning to make grid power cheaper. Nuclear raises the cost of electricity.

It's sort of like electric cars. It would be far more efficient to have everyone drive electric cars and burn the fuel in a powerplant. But even assuming you had the battery tech for long drives and quick recharges, our grid would burst into flames if we tried to do this.


Well, there's no need to burn fuel in power plants to charge EVs. Renewables are perfect for EVs. Cars spend about 90% of their time parked which means that they are excellent for absorbing peak renewable input power. That creates more profit for wind and solar which, in turn, generates more installation.

As well, our grid is quite ready for EVs. A couple of studies have found that were our existing vehicles turned into EVs overnight the grid could easily charge 85% of all those vehicles.

Range, we have a couple of solutions even if battery capacity does not increase over the next few years.

First, there are PHEVs like the Chevy Volt that let most people do the vast majority of their driving with electricity but have the ability to run on liquid fuels when larger range is needed.

Second, we've got the technology to do very rapid battery exchanges. You can drive into one of Better Place's battery exchange stations and drive out with a charged battery faster than you can pump your tank full of gas.

But it's unlikely we'll need those approaches. Batteries almost certainly will increase to give us roughly double the current range of the Nissan Leaf, which is all that is needed. Once ranges reach ~175 miles and we have an adequate number of Level 3 charge stations along our highways one will be able to drive 500 miles with only a couple of short breaks.


Quoting RTSplayer:



So you're saying the chart in wikipedia is completely backwards?

the temperature spike on 1998 on the chart makes sense because 1998 was at that time the hottest year on record, and still is one of the top 5, and you can count left and right on each of them to find the other ones.




The high temperature spike is 1998, because 1998 was the hottest year on record.

If 1998 is supposed to be la nina, then it should be blue.

And if ou lost track of the years, you can just count up or down from 1998, which is easily the hottest year up to that time.


Either way, one of these products is completely wrong...on EVERY freaking year...

Additionally, the far right bar is 2011, which is la nina like it should be, and if you count backwards, 1998 is indeed the tall red bar.

Just use this official one and there will be no confusion.
According to this:


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1992_Atlantic_hurric ane_season


1992 was an STRONG el nino year, agreeing with the chart and me, which it says in the third sentence of the first paragraph.


which totally opposite of your link, which claims it was neutral.


Hey, maybe all the sites are wrong then, eh?

Either way, if you then use 1992 as a reference and count left or right, all the years I gave are el ninos on the chart...
Quoting hurricanehunter27:
Did not know there was one and were is it supposed to happen?
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:



ME, ME, ME!
Yes according to the models their is suppose to a snow storm on Monay.You know what I find ironic is that during the same date the snow storm is suppose to happen we had a ice storm with snow on the ground.Had to come in the offic two hours late.
You know I knew Matt Lauer got a good check in the mail every week.But he get's paid 17 million just to talk...That's the amount of money that would take me twenty years to make.Some people of life time.I wonder how much Brain get's paid...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Just use this official one and there will be no confusion.



Nice link...

But now you see the truth, which is that most of the years in fact were el nino anyway.

Addditionally, when you break it down that way, you see it's stupid and pointless to make a "storms don't happen in el nino years" rule, because half the years are BOTH because they flip-flopped.

If you average 1998's deviations it was actually still 0.1 positive average for the year, even though it shows more months as negative.

Link


hey everyone look at that.


It's a bit more complicated than this "year" was el nino or la nina, which is why the wiki graphic is a bit different.


Additionally, you STILL made my point, because:

1966
1969
1983
1992


were el ninos on that graphic too.

1998 changed, but the annual average was still positive, which might explain why it's red on the wiki graphic.


But that's a good reference, and I'll agree it's better than the wiki chart I had found right away...


But it still makes my own argument about strong storms even more valid, because it shows that there's more to it than just "was or was not an el nino".

1998 qualifies as both an strong el nino and a strong la nina, by those standards, depends on which season you look at.
ENSO patterns for the last 10 years.

2011 - La Nina.
2010 - La Nina.
2009 - El Nino.
2008 - Neutral.
2007 - La Nina.
2006 - El Nino
2005 - Neutral
2004 - El Nino
2003 - La Nina.
2002 - El Nino.

Anyone else see a semi-pattern?

One would assume that 2012 would be a El Nino by that pattern.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ENSO patterns for the last 10 years.

2011 - La Nina.
2010 - La Nina.
2009 - El Nino.
2008 - Neutral.
2007 - La Nina.
2006 - El Nino
2005 - Neutral
2004 - El Nino
2003 - La Nina.
2002 - El Nino.

Anyone else see a semi-pattern?

One would assume that 2012 would be a El Nino by that pattern.
Well I hope it's a weak El nino because I want some storms to track.Not like 09 all over again.Ahhhhh the painful memories!!!.Such a boring season.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ENSO patterns for the last 10 years.

2011 - La Nina.
2010 - La Nina.
2009 - El Nino.
2008 - Neutral.
2007 - La Nina.
2006 - El Nino
2005 - Neutral
2004 - El Nino
2003 - La Nina.
2002 - El Nino.

Anyone else see a semi-pattern?

One would assume that 2012 would be a El Nino by that pattern.

I wonder if we'll see an El Nino anytime soon. I don't think so.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wonder if we'll see an El Nino anytime soon. I don't think so.
I just hope not.A weak El nino if anything.But you can tell the pattern is changing.Storms aretaking a more southerly track.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wonder if we'll see an El Nino anytime soon. I don't think so.


CPC weekly update released today has a little warmer Nino 3.4 area at -1.0C, up from -1.2C of last week's update.

Link
Quoting washingtonian115:
Well I hope it's a weak El nino because I want some storms to track.Not like 09 all over again.Ahhhhh the painful memories!!!.Such a boring season.


Not a boring season..

If you guys actually cared about any basin other than the Atl. :(

Memorable storms from 2009:

Rick - second strongest EPac storm on record.



Nida - strongest November storm that I know of.



Melor - still stronger than any storm in 2011.



That is every storm in 2009 that had an intensity higher than 140kts. 2010 had Megi exceed 140kts, while 2011 had no storms exceed 140kts.
Quoting yqt1001:


Not a boring season..

If you guys actually cared about any basin other than the Atl. :(

Memorable storms from 2009:

Rick - second strongest EPac storm on record.



Nida - strongest November storm that I know of.



Melor - still stronger than any storm in 2011.



That is every storm in 2009 that had an intensity higher than 140kts.
Back in 2009 I did track storms in other basins.I was mainly referring to the atlantic.For some storms I was missing information.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


CPC weekly update released today has a little warmer Nino 3.4 area at -1.0C, up from -1.2C of last week's update.

Link

Yeah, we are headed towards El Niño right now, but all of the models show this gradually leveling off by August/September/October. In fact, after ASO, many models start taking us back down to La Niña.
.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, we are headed towards El Nio right now, but all of the models show this gradually leveling off by August/September/October. In fact, after ASO, many models start taking us back down to La Nia.
Hopefully.Phew.Don't wanna have another 09 here in the Atlantic.EDIT.I remember 97 was even more boring.
Miami NWS Discussion

PRECIPITABLE WATERS FINALLY RISE BACK ABOVE 1 INCH BY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ON A SOUTHEAST FLOW. BY EARLY THURSDAY, A STRONGER
SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL HAVE ADVANCED INTO THE
WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE. THE GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO COME
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THESE FEATURES AND SHOW WAVES OF LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE GULF OF MEXICO AND
PUSHING EAST NORTHEAST. THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT SHOULD TEND
TO SLOW AS IT BECOMES PARALLEL TO THE UPPER LEVEL FLOW. SO WHILE
THE BULK OF THE RICHEST MOISTURE MAY REMAIN TO OUR NORTH, AT
LEAST THROUGH SATURDAY, SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE CERTAINLY
WARRANTED FOR THE LOCAL AREA THIS WEEKEND. THE FRONT ITSELF MAY
NOT CLEAR SOUTH FLORIDA UNTIL LATE SUNDAY OR EARLY MONDAY.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
ENSO patterns for the last 10 years.

2011 - La Nina.
2010 - La Nina.
2009 - El Nino.
2008 - Neutral.
2007 - La Nina.
2006 - El Nino
2005 - Neutral
2004 - El Nino
2003 - La Nina.
2002 - El Nino.

Anyone else see a semi-pattern?

One would assume that 2012 would be a El Nino by that pattern.
2004 was a very strange huricane, infact 2004 was an hyperactive huricane season...which is rather strange for an el nino year.
Quoting nigel20:
2004 was a very strange huricane, infact 2004 was an hyperactive huricane season...which is rather strange for an el nino year.

It was a Modiki El Niño year.
...and now for our daily view of the Puerto Rican radar site showing rainfall...
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Yeah, we are headed towards El Niño right now, but all of the models show this gradually leveling off by August/September/October. In fact, after ASO, many models start taking us back down to La Niña.
what do you think about the 2004 hurricane season...why was it so active during an el nino?
Quoting nigel20:
2004 was a very strange huricane, infact 2004 was an hyperactive huricane season...which is rather strange for an el nino year.

Also interesting to note that 2004 had several strong Cape Verde hurricanes that hit the US rather than recurve (Frances, Ivan, Jeanne) Very destructive year, especialy considering it was el nino
Quoting nigel20:
what do you think about the 2004 hurricane season...why was it so active during an el nino?

Post #281.

"A new paper published in Science last Friday attempts to explain why some El Nio years see high Atlantic hurricane activity. "Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones", by Georgia Tech researchers Hye-Mi Kim, Peter Webster, and Judith Curry, theorizes that Atlantic hurricane activity is sensitive to exactly where in the Pacific Ocean El Nio warming occurs. If the warming occurs primarily in the Eastern Pacific, near the coast of South America, the resulting atmospheric circulation pattern creates very high wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, resulting in fewer hurricanes. This pattern, called the Eastern Pacific Warming (EPW) pattern, occurred most recently during the El Nio years of 1997, 1987, and 1982 (Figure 1). In contrast, more warming occurred in the Central Pacific during the El Nio years of 2004, 2002, 1994, and 1991. The scientists showed that these Central Pacific Warming (CPW) years had lower wind shear over the Atlantic, and thus featured higher hurricane activity than is typical for an El Nio year. One of the paper's authors, Professor Peter J. Webster, said the variant Central Pacific Warming (CPW) El Nio pattern was discovered in the 1980s by Japanese and Korean researchers, who dubbed it modiki El Nio. Modiki is the Japanese word for "similar, but different"."

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wonder if we'll see an El Nino anytime soon. I don't think so.
better chance we get el nino than la nina ocean is warming up although i think the 2012 season will be neutral in my opinion
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

Serious question: Is it ever not raining in Puerto Rico?
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
...and now for our daily view of the Puerto Rican radar site showing rainfall...

:P
It hasn't stopped raining since 4:30. 4.8" so far. All of this falling into a river that passes through my town. Tomorrow's morning commute isn't going to be pretty.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Post #281.
yeah...I saw it after I posted the question
Quoting MAweatherboy1:

Serious question: Is it ever not raining in Puerto Rico?

It mostly rains in isolated mountain areas. First time in a while we've gotten generalized rains like this.
Quoting WeatherNerdPR:

It mostly rains in isolated mountain areas. First time in a while we've gotten generalized rains like this.


Not a drop so far in Santurce,but we have a flood advisory for NorthCentral PR.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
802 PM AST MON FEB 13 2012

PRC047-101-105-143-140200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0003.120214T0002Z-120214T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-MOROVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-
802 PM AST MON FEB 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...MOROVIS...NARANJITO AND VEGA ALTA

* UNTIL 1000 PM AST

* AT 759 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING
ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 10:00PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6630 1831 6625 1825 6636 1828 6638
1827 6640 1833 6645 1835 6639 1835 6638
1836 6637 1837 6632

$$

OMS
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Post #281.

"A new paper published in Science last Friday attempts to explain why some El Ni�o years see high Atlantic hurricane activity. "Impact of Shifting Patterns of Pacific Ocean Warming on North Atlantic Tropical Cyclones", by Georgia Tech researchers Hye-Mi Kim, Peter Webster, and Judith Curry, theorizes that Atlantic hurricane activity is sensitive to exactly where in the Pacific Ocean El Ni�o warming occurs. If the warming occurs primarily in the Eastern Pacific, near the coast of South America, the resulting atmospheric circulation pattern creates very high wind shear over the tropical Atlantic, resulting in fewer hurricanes. This pattern, called the Eastern Pacific Warming (EPW) pattern, occurred most recently during the El Ni�o years of 1997, 1987, and 1982 (Figure 1). In contrast, more warming occurred in the Central Pacific during the El Ni�o years of 2004, 2002, 1994, and 1991. The scientists showed that these Central Pacific Warming (CPW) years had lower wind shear over the Atlantic, and thus featured higher hurricane activity than is typical for an El Ni�o year. One of the paper's authors, Professor Peter J. Webster, said the variant Central Pacific Warming (CPW) El Ni�o pattern was discovered in the 1980s by Japanese and Korean researchers, who dubbed it modiki El Ni�o. Modiki is the Japanese word for "similar, but different"."

The closer the band of warm water is to South America the less storms we see in the Atlantic.The further it is away from South America the more storms we get in the Atlantic.It all makes since.09 and 97 both had warm water bundled up at the S.A coast unlike 04...
Geez I would love it if people return the favor of plusing my comments...
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

I wonder if we'll see an El Nino anytime soon. I don't think so.


The largest period I could find without an El Nino was from 1958-1962. So it's not as if multiple years without an El Nino are unprecedented.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


Not a drop so far in Santurce,but we have a flood advisory for NorthCentral PR.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
802 PM AST MON FEB 13 2012

PRC047-101-105-143-140200-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.Y.0003.120214T0002Z-120214T0200Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-MOROVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-
802 PM AST MON FEB 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS ISSUED AN

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...MOROVIS...NARANJITO AND VEGA ALTA

* UNTIL 1000 PM AST

* AT 759 PM AST...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN THE
ADVISORY AREA. THESE AREAS OF SHOWERS HAVE THE CAPABILITY OF
PRODUCING MODERATE TO LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL WHICH WILL LEAD TO
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...AS WELL AS MINOR FLOODING
ALONG ROADWAYS...THROUGH AT LEAST 10:00PM AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6630 1831 6625 1825 6636 1828 6638
1827 6640 1833 6645 1835 6639 1835 6638
1836 6637 1837 6632

$$

OMS

A steady rain all afternoon and evening here. Still drizzling. I'm worried about the Cibuco River overflowing.
Look at that very warm pool of water creeping eastward,already surpassing the 160W longitud.

Quoting KoritheMan:


The largest period I could find without an El Nino was from 1958-1962. So it's not as if multiple years without an El Nino are unprecedented.
Look who came out to play.....
Quoting washingtonian115:
Geez I would love it if people return the favor of plusing my comments...

You're welcome. :P
Quoting nigel20:
2004 was a very strange huricane, infact 2004 was an hyperactive huricane season...which is rather strange for an el nino year.
The El-Nino of 2004 was at its end throughout the hurricane season. Which may have contributed weird season and probably the worst year of my entire life.
0000Z Image SH122012 - Tropical Cyclone (>64 kt) GIOVANNA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)


Quoting washingtonian115:
Geez I would love it if people return the favor of plusing my comments...


i know its not hurricane season!!!! el nino or la nino hurricanes happen in both!!! and very often in both.... lets turn the attention to this late weeks possible mid atlantic snow storm!!!
Looking at MIMIC, Giovanna is maintaining strength at ~125kts as it's lining up for a landfall somewhere around 19S.
Hokay. Anybody know the coordinates of Giovanna's landfall? it's current position?
Quoting aspectre:
Hokay. Anybody know the coordinates of Giovanna's landfall? it's current position?


Isn't that your forte? ;)
Quoting aspectre:
Hokay. Anybody know the coordinates of Giovanna's landfall? it's current position?

That's your job. Use your mappy thing. :P
Quoting washingtonian115:
The closer the band of warm water is to South America the less storms we see in the Atlantic.The further it is away from South America the more storms we get in the Atlantic.It all makes since.09 and 97 both had warm water bundled up at the S.A coast unlike 04...
very interesting, as it suggest that el ninos can indeed produce very active hurricane season and there must be some similar anomolies with la nina as well.
Typhoon 12S

UW-CIMSS Automated Satellite-Based
Advanced Dvorak Technique (ADT)
Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Estimation Algorithm


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 FEB 2012 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 18:57:00 S Lon : 48:13:26 E


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE


************************************************* ***



Quoting Skyepony:
Looking at MIMIC, Giovanna is maintaining strength at ~125kts as it's lining up for a landfall somewhere around 19S.

I hope Madagascar fares well. A mountainous, densely populated island about to get hit by a Category 4 cyclone is never good...
The Cyclones core is fully inland now..as the impact has been under way proper for the last 5 hours easily.
it feels so good to have a full stomach.


I know...its not current becuz Giovanna made landfall...but still COOL.

And we got both this time too.
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


i know its not hurricane season!!!! el nino or la nino hurricanes happen in both!!! and very often in both.... lets turn the attention to this late weeks possible mid atlantic snow storm!!!
Do you live in the D.C area?.Or as referred to the D.M.V?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Do you live in the D.C area?.Or as referred to the D.M.V?


yes in springfield!! obvisouly you do, what part are you in?
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #20
DEPRESSION SUR TERRE, FORMER GIOVANNA (09-20112012)
4:00 AM RET February 14 2012
================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Overland Depression, Former Giovanna (945 hPa) located at 19.0S 48.8E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Hurricane Force Winds
========================
50 NM radius from the center in eastern semi-circle

Storm Force Winds
=================
85 NM radius from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
120 NM radius from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
=====================
160 NM radius from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Dvorak Intensity: OVERLAND

Forecast and Intensity
========================

12 HRS: 20.4S 45.3E - 25 knots (Depression sur Terre)
24 HRS: 21.4S 42.8E - 30 knots (Depression Tropicale)
48 HRS: 23.8S 39.3E - 50 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)
72 HRS: 24.8S 37.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
=====================

Giovanna has made landfall near Andovoranto Monday at about 2200 PM UTC. Gusts has probably exceed 120 km/h in an area from Nosy-Varika in the south to Sainte-Marie island in the north, 150 km/h from Mahanoro in the south to Toamasina in the north and 200 km/h from Vaomandry in the south up to 50 km in the north of Andovoranto.

Coastal flooding have probably occurred in the south of the landfall up to 50 km south of Andovoranto in relationship with the combined effect of a storm surge estimated at 2.5 to 3.0 meters and a more than 12 meter high cyclonic swell. This area has probably undergo within the same time gusts from 200 to 250 km/h

Giovanna should be back over sea in the Mozambique Channel late Tuesday or early Wednesday within a favorable atmospheric environment with a decreasing easterly shear as the system will move closer to an upper level ridge. Latest ECMWF run suggests a rapid re-intensification that is reflected by the official RSMC forecast. On and after84 hours system is expected to recurve southwards then southeastwards towards a mid-latitudes trough transiting in its south.

The next tropical cyclone advisory on TC GIOVANNA issued by Seychelles Meteorological Services will be issued at 6:30 AM UTC..
The PNA is forecast to go negative soon...warmer pattern for the E CONUS if this verifies.

Also, the NAO is currently in the negative range, but will be back positive by the 15th. Maybe I dont got to put up with this cold weather much longer...lol.
How much are we thinking Giovanna restrengthens when it gets over the Mozambique Channel?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How much are we thinking Giovanna restrengthens when it gets over the Mozambique Channel?


maybe a strong tropical cyclone. may not have time to get to cyclone strength again.
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How much are we thinking Giovanna restrengthens when it gets over the Mozambique Channel?
The further north it stays the warmer the SST's
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
How much are we thinking Giovanna restrengthens when it gets over the Mozambique Channel?


RSMC has it up to 80 knots (1 min) potential as in the Mozambique Channel

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK :
96H: 2012/02/18 00 UTC: 26.1 S / 36.7 E, MAX WIND=070 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
120H: 2012/02/19 00 UTC: 26.4 S / 37.9 E, MAX WIND=065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
Quoting SPLbeater:


maybe a strong tropical cyclone. may not have time to get to cyclone strength again.


It has days out over the warm enough waters of the Mozambique channel.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
A bit of uncertainty in the future track
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Advisory #21
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
12:00 PM FST February 14 2012
===================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVA'U AND HA'APAI GROUP


At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (993 hPa) located at 21.1S 176.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 35 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north northwest at 5 knots. Position poor based on hourly GMS imagery and peripheral surface reports.

Gale Force Winds
==================
80 NM from the center in northeast quadrant
60 NM from the center in southeast quadrant
40 NM from the center in southwest quadrant
80 NM from the center in northwest quadrant

Overall organization has not changed much in past 24 hours. Convection has slightly increased in past 6 hours. CIMMS analysis indicate the system lies under an upper ridge axis and in low sheared environment. The system is being steered by southeasterly deep layer mean flow.Sea surface temperature around 28C.

Dvorak analysis based on 0.4 wrap on log10 spiral, yielding DT=2.5, PT=2.5 and MET=3.0, final Dvorak based on MET.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/3.0/S0.0/24 HRS

Most global models initially agree on the northwest track before recurving it southwestwards within 24 hours.

Forecast and Intensity:
=======================

12 HRS: 20.8S 176.7W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 21.0S 177.3W - 35 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 22.5S 178.1W - 35 knots (CAT 1)

The next tropical disturbance advisory from Fiji Meteorological Services on TC JASMINE will be issued at 8:30 AM UTC..
Weakening now down to 95kts.
Here is invest 99S,the next concern for Madagascar? First visible shows is organizing at a good rate.

TRMM caught 99S.
0130Z




JAVA Movie
The Flood Advisory for NorthCentral PR was extended until Midnight AST.

FLOOD ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
952 PM AST MON FEB 13 2012

PRC047-101-105-143-140400-
/O.EXT.TJSJ.FA.Y.0003.000000T0000Z-120214T0400Z/
/00000.N.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-MOROVIS PR-NARANJITO PR-VEGA ALTA PR-
952 PM AST MON FEB 13 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* URBAN AND SMALL STREAM FLOOD ADVISORY
FOR THE FOLLOWING MUNICIPALITIES...

IN PUERTO RICO
COROZAL...MOROVIS...NARANJITO AND VEGA ALTA

* UNTIL MIDNIGHT AST

WEATHER DOPPLER RADAR CONTINUES TO INDICATE MODERATE SHOWER ACTIVITY
ACROSS PARTS OF THE WARNED AREA. THIS RAINFALL IN ADDITION TO THE
RAINFALL THAT HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
RAPID RISES ON SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS THROUGH AT LEAST MIDNIGHT
AST.

MOST FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. NEVER DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO
AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE ROADWAY. FLOOD WATERS ARE USUALLY
DEEPER THAN THEY APPEAR. JUST ONE FOOT OF FLOWING WATER IS POWERFUL
ENOUGH TO SWEEP VEHICLES OFF THE ROAD. WHEN ENCOUNTERING FLOODED
ROADS MAKE THE SMART CHOICE...TURN AROUND...DONT DROWN.

&&

LAT...LON 1837 6630 1831 6625 1825 6636 1828 6638
1827 6640 1833 6645 1835 6639 1835 6638
1836 6637 1837 6632

$$

OMS
Good night everyone!
So what about this 99S? Where is it supposed to go and how strong is it supposed to get?
"Ride The Storm" Commercial Extended Cut - 2012 Weather Underground Mitsubishi All-Wheel Control Lineup

TCWC Perth is mentioning Christmas (Cocos Island) right now.. CMC about next week shows models near Rodriques.. St. Brandon islands.
Look at the massive amount of moisture Giovanna pulled into its circulation. Incredible.
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yes in springfield!! obvisouly you do, what part are you in?


Fairfax City here!!!
. I am surprised the doc has not been in for a visit.
Mystery epidemic devastates Central American region
By FILADELFO ALEMAN, MICHAEL WEISSENSTEIN
updated 2/12/2012 6:13:41 AM ET


In town in Nicaragua's sugar-growing heartland, studies have found more than one in four men show symptoms of chronic kidney disease....

A mysterious epidemic is devastating the Pacific coast of Central America, killing more than 24,000 people in El Salvador and Nicaragua since 2000 and striking thousands of others with chronic kidney disease at rates unseen virtually anywhere else. Scientists say they have received reports of the phenomenon as far north as southern Mexico and as far south as Panama.

Link
If 99S is name how it would be calL?
Quoting allancalderini:
If 99S is name how it would be calL?


who ever has the responsibility of naming it as it makes Tropical Storm winds using the 10 minute average.

Australia would be Koji
Mauritius would be Hilwa

however if Australia names it and it moves west of 90E it would be Koji-Hilwa.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Mystery epidemic devastates Central American region
By FILADELFO ALEMAN, MICHAEL WEISSENSTEIN
updated 2/12/2012 6:13:41 AM ET


In town in Nicaragua's sugar-growing heartland, studies have found more than one in four men show symptoms of chronic kidney disease....

A mysterious epidemic is devastating the Pacific coast of Central America, killing more than 24,000 people in El Salvador and Nicaragua since 2000 and striking thousands of others with chronic kidney disease at rates unseen virtually anywhere else. Scientists say they have received reports of the phenomenon as far north as southern Mexico and as far south as Panama.

Link

On the scale of things 24,000 people since 2000 is really not to much. Seasonal flu death avg is about 36,000/yr. No need to panic but still needs be looked at for sure.
Towers erupting in the Invest's Convective structure.


SH992012 - INVEST


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery





Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)

Note the SST's during the 36 to 48 hr marks

303 aspectre "Hokay. Anybody know the coordinates of Giovanna's landfall? it's current position?"
304 KoritheMan "Isn't that your forte? ;) "

Nope, I just draw straight lines through other people's coordinates. But shoulda refreshed before asking. Patrap almost posted the answer with the windfield map in 300.


306 TropicalAnalystwx13 "That's your job. Use your mappy thing. :P "

Hokay, eyeballing the wind map, looks like the center is at 19.5s49.07e offshore. Which makes a landfall 104miles(167kilometres) southsouthwest of Toamasina(TMM) at 19.55s48.9e plausible after drawing a straight line through JTWC's last reported position for Giovanna's center and the center coordinate eyeballed off the windfield map.

Not perfect, but then neither is my eyeball.
Extending the line further, Giovanna's center should pass ~83miles(~133kilometres) south of Antananarivo(TNR)
TNR to TMM is ~134miles(~215kilometres)

Copy&paste nos, tmm-tnr, 18.7s51.5e-19.5s49.07e, 19.5s49.07e-19.55s48.9e, 18.7s51.5e-20s47.48e, tmm-19.55s48.9e, tnr-20s47.48e into the GreatCircleMap for a closer look at details.
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


yes in springfield!! obvisouly you do, what part are you in?
I live in N.W D.C
what category did giovanna make landfall?
351. wunderweatherman123 2:56 AM GMT on February 14, 2012

110-115 knots estimate from the RSMC advisories. Category 3 at least..
Hello Tropical Depression 13F...No clue where you came from because I don't typically track these systems in the Southern Pacific and Hemisphere, but ok.

Quoting wunderweatherman123:
what category did giovanna make landfall?


Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.1.3
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 14 FEB 2012 Time : 020000 UTC
Lat : 18:47:17 S Lon : 48:00:13 E


TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND
NO ADT ANALYSIS AVAILABLE





All we can do is watch, wait, and maybe send one up to one's deity or Higher Power as Millions are under that CDO..



Can you believe it went down to 44F in Puerto Rico? Yes,it occured early on Monday morning in Adjuntas on the Central part of the island.It tied the record low made in 1980.

Link
We were expecting huge storms on nosy Komba the early hours of the morning & today , but all calm. We did have rain but nothing like we expected.
Pulled our boats out of the water too.
Is the cyclone still coming?
Radiation hits Tokyo from 2/13 to 2/15
Posted by Mochizuki on February 13th, 2012 · 7 Comments

Meteocenter Swiss forecast the radiation flow from Fukushima.
According to the report, wind of 10m and 500m height will blow from Fukushima to Tokyo.
Radiation is assumed to widely hit Tokyo from 3:00 AM 2/14/2012 to 8:00 AM 2/15/2012 (JST).
It’s better to wear a mask or stay inside as much as possible.





Fall-out intensively increased in Fukushima
Posted by Mochizuki on February 13th, 2012 · 4 Comments

While reactor2 was being heated, fall-out level in Fukushima intensively increased.

Until 9:00 AM of 2/11/2012,
Cesium 134 : 4.45 MBq/km2
Cesium 137 : 6.46 MBq/km2


However, 9:00 AM 2/11/2012 ~ 9:00 AM 2/12/2012,
Cesium 134 : 98.2 MBq/km2
Cesium 137 : 139 MBq/km2
Quoting washingtonian115:
I live in N.W D.C


nice im only about 10 miles from you down 495.....how bout that huge snow 2 nights ago...we got a dusting actually cause it was so dry and piled up next to everything there is still some on the left side of the house where the son hath not shine!
im hopeing these models stay together and we at least get a 3+ inch snow storm before this winter is over
Very well explained....

Komba is Far Nwest Madagascar and will only feel fringe effects.

Antsohihy, Madagascar wunderpage








Quoting uncwhurricane85:


nice im only about 10 miles from you down 495.....how bout that huge snow 2 nights ago...we got a dusting actually cause it was so dry and piled up next to everything there is still some on the left side of the house where the son hath not shine!
im hopeing these models stay together and we at least get a 3+ inch snow storm before this winter is over


Same here on both counts. I had a dusting, and I really hope it does snow on Sunday!!!
Quoting Patrap:
All we can do is watch, wait, and maybe send one up to one's deity or Higher Power as Millions are under that CDO..





CDO is nearly on top of the capital city...NOT GOOD!
Interesting that most of the deep convection in relation to Giovanna is in the northern semicircle. In the Northern Hemisphere we would expect this, but in the Southern Hemisphere, westerly flow is found north of the center. Hard to get moisture with offshore flow.
Quoting KoritheMan:
Interesting that most of the deep convection in relation to Giovanna is in the northern semicircle. In the Northern Hemisphere we would expect this, but in the Southern Hemisphere, westerly flow is found north of the center. Hard to get moisture with offshore flow.


Sometimes that happens as the Eye Wall cycling and Angular Momentum favors the Opposite Semi-circle rather than the one expected.

That would be a good thesis subject if not covered in depth already maybe.
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:
Here is invest 99S,the next concern for Madagascar? First visible shows is organizing at a good rate.



I mention that and the future of that system in my new blog with 99S and Giovanna, Link
Quoting Marcineonkomba:
We were expecting huge storms on nosy Komba the early hours of the morning & today , but all calm. We did have rain but nothing like we expected.
Pulled our boats out of the water too.
Is the cyclone still coming?


ok after googling where that is(LOL) i found u!

You may get some heavy rainfall at times from Giovanna, but since your up towards extreme northern madagascar, you will likely avoid the worst rainfall :D

Correct me if i wrong guys.
372. flsky
Hurricanes a threat to off-shore wind farms.

Link
Quoting TampaSpin:


You can tell the EWRC was just beginning at the end of the loop....
Well its my bedtime. be back tomorrow morning! Madagascar residents, your in my prayers!
365 KoritheMan "Interesting that most of the deep convection in relation to Giovanna is in the northern semicircle. In the Northern Hemisphere we would expect this, but in the Southern Hemisphere, westerly flow is found north of the center. Hard to get moisture with offshore flow."

Atmospheric saturation caused by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability?...

..playing off of Madagascar's mountainous spine instead of the condo towers in PanamaCity,Florida?
Quoting WxGeekVA:


You can tell the EWRC was just beginning at the end of the loop....



Don't appear that way to me....if you look you can see the double eye wall and the inner eye wall collapsed and a NEW eye had already begin to form as ONE!
Quoting aspectre:
365 KoritheMan "Interesting that most of the deep convection in relation to Giovanna is in the northern semicircle. In the Northern Hemisphere we would expect this, but in the Southern Hemisphere, westerly flow is found north of the center. Hard to get moisture with offshore flow."

Atmospheric saturation caused by Kelvin-Helmholts instability?...

..playing off of Madagascar's mountainous spine instead of the condo towers in PanamaCity,Florida?


Even I learned something new today. Thank you!
Quoting AussieStorm:
VIDEO: Mini tornado near Newcastle


Just once in my life I'd like to experience something like this. Then again, I might even piss my pants too.
Fiji Meteorological Services
FLASH
TROPICAL CYCLONE JASMINE (12F)
15:00 PM FST February 14 2012
=================================

TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.
A GALE WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE TONGATAPU GROUP.
A STRONG WIND WARNING REMAINS IN FORCE FOR THE VAVA'U AND HA'APAI GROUP.


At 3:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Jasmine, Category One (987 hPa) located at 21.0S 176.4W has 10 minute sustained winds of 45 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 4 knots.
Fiji Meteorological Services
Tropical Disturbance Summary
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13F
12:00 PM FST February 14 2012
=================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Tropical Depression 13F (1007 hPa) located at 16.6S 161.0E is reported as slow moving. Position fair based on multisatellite visible imagery with animation and peripheral surface observations. Sea surface temperature is around 29C.

Organization has improved slightly in the past 24 hours. Convection has increased slightly in the past 24 hours. Llcc partially exposed. Cyclonic circulation extends upto 700 HPA. TD 13F lies under 250 HPA ridge axis in a low sheared environment.

Global models are yet to pick the system.

The potential for this system to develop in to a tropical cyclone in the 24-48 hours is low.
Tropical Cyclone Giovanna





















Click Images for larger image.
0400Z
Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)




5.6 magnitude earthquake shakes northern California
Posted on February 13, 2012

February 13, 2012 – SAN FRANCISCO – A 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck northern California 50 km (31 miles) from Eureka, Ca. and 352 km from Sacramento according to the USGS. The earthquake had a preliminary depth of 32 km (20.4 miles) below the surface. The earthquake is the second to strike the region in 24 hours.


Jasmine striking Tonga.
Death-toll from European cold-snap exceeds 600
Posted on February 13, 2012
February 13, 2012 – MOSCOW – The death toll from Europe’s recent cold snap has passed 600, with more than a third of that tally in Russia alone, AFP reports. Heavy snow continues to fall in Romania and Bulgaria while the Russian health ministry said that 215 people have died, and more than 5,000 have suffered from hypothermia since the beginning of the year. In Moscow on Monday, the temperature was holding at minus 4 degrees Fahrenheit while the city of Toko in the far northern Sakha republic saw the mercury dip to minus 63 degrees, the wire service noted. –Market Watch
365 KoritheMan "Interesting that most of the deep convection in relation to Giovanna is in the northern semicircle...Hard to get moisture with offshore flow."
376 aspectre "Atmospheric saturation caused by Kelvin-Helmholtz instability?...
...playing off of Madagascar's mountainous spine instead of the condo towers in PanamaCity,Florida?
380 KoritheMan "Even I learned something new today. Thank you!"

Don't take it to the bank. Just a guess based on similarities between mountains and condo towers and your description of what's happening over Madagascar.
Like Patrap said, might be a good topic to explore for a college thesis or post-graduate dissertation if someone hasn't already made/solidified his/her reputation by getting a paper published on it.
Snow/Ice storm for North Carolina now on the GFS, jumping on the bandwagon with the other models for a storm this weekend, hopefully it will shift west and ride up the coast on the next runs, I WANT!

SH102012 - Tropical Cyclone (<64 kt) JASMINE


Storm Relative 1km Geostationary Visible Imagery
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:
Snow/Ice storm for North Carolina now on the GFS, jumping on the bandwagon with the other models for a storm this weekend, hopefully it will shift west and ride up the coast on the next runs, I WANT!



i get the precip...but how do you know its snow/ice? its going to be mid 50's there this weekend, i understand the back side of low pressures can bring temps down considerbly, but i doubt they will come down 20-25 degrees for snow and ice
Quoting uncwhurricane85:


i get the precip...but how do you know its snow/ice? its going to be mid 50's there this weekend, i understand the back side of low pressures can bring temps down considerbly, but i doubt they will come down 20-25 degrees for snow and ice


the blue line shows the 0 degree isotherm at the 850mb level, precip north of the line usually falls as snow or ice.
Quoting VAbeachhurricanes:


the blue line shows the 0 degree isotherm at the 850mb level, precip north of the line usually falls as snow or ice.



ahhh thanks good to know, im usually here just during hurricane season cause i was a wilmington nc resident, but now live in noreaster territory...Thanks
Tropical Cyclone Warning Center Perth
Tropical Cyclone Outlook
10:45 AM WST February 14 2012
==================================

At 9:00 AM WST Tuesday a low (1000 hPa) was located near 13.0S 92.5E and is moving west at 12 knots. The low is expected to move west of 90E [out of the Western Region] during Tuesday evening.

Tropical Cyclone Formation Potential
===================================

Wednesday: Very Low
Thursday: Very Low
Friday: Very Low

--
**very low because of the fact it will not be in the Perth Area of Responsibility soon.

Link

Louisiana
Severe Weather Awareness Week
February 13 - 17, 2012


Severe Weather Awareness Week Information

Tornadoes, damaging thunderstorm winds, large hail, and flash floods can occur at any time of the year. However, late winter and spring usually bring the greatest chance of these severe weather events across Louisiana.

The week beginning on February 13th has been designated as Severe Weather Awareness Week in the Pelican State. The goal of this special week is to call attention to the threats posed by these weather hazards, as well as to review severe weather safety rules in an attempt to reduce the loss of life and injury. Post-storm interviews with survivors of severe weather events prove that preventative safety measures greatly enhance the chance of survival.

Now is the time to develop a severe weather safety plan. A successful plan should include:

Knowledge of terminology such as watches and warnings
Knowledge of safety rules to follow when severe weather strikes
A reliable method of receiving emergency information
Review and testing of the plan.

Emergency managers, schools, government agencies, private businesses, and local citizens are encouraged to review their severe weather safety plans and conduct drills as appropriate...
"February 13, 2012 – SAN FRANCISCO – A 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck northern California 50 km (31 miles) from Eureka, Ca. and 352 km from Sacramento according to the USGS. The earthquake had a preliminary depth of 32 km (20.4 miles) below the surface. The earthquake is the second to strike the region in 24 hours."

There have been 10 or so 5.6's along the PacRim in the past two weeks. What a bizarre coincidence.
Tropical Cyclone Jasmine.


















Click image for larger image.
Quoting weatherdogg:
"February 13, 2012 – SAN FRANCISCO – A 5.6 magnitude earthquake struck northern California 50 km (31 miles) from Eureka, Ca. and 352 km from Sacramento according to the USGS. The earthquake had a preliminary depth of 32 km (20.4 miles) below the surface. The earthquake is the second to strike the region in 24 hours."

There have been 10 or so 5.6's along the PacRim in the past two weeks. What a bizarre coincidence.



== PRELIMINARY EARTHQUAKE REPORT ==

***This event has been revised.


Region: NORTHERN CALIFORNIA
Geographic coordinates: 41.143N, 123.790W
Magnitude: 5.6 Mw
Depth: 28 km
Universal Time (UTC): 13 Feb 2012 21:07:02
Time near the Epicenter: 13 Feb 2012 13:07:02
Local standard time in your area: 13 Feb 2012 21:07:02

Location with respect to nearby cities:
9 km (5 miles) SW (234 degrees) of Weitchpec, CA
28 km (17 miles) NNW (343 degrees) of Willow Creek, CA
29 km (18 miles) ENE (67 degrees) of Westhaven-Moonstone, CA
50 km (31 miles) NE (38 degrees) of Eureka, CA
349 km (217 miles) NW (326 degrees) of Sacramento, CA
entire ring of fire earth quake region pacific wide

i expect a 7.5 to 8.1 to show soon been awhile
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
i expect a 7.5 to 8.1 to show soon been awhile

I have the same feeling. But where will it be is the $1billion question.
USA



Click Thumbnail for full size Image.
Tell me if you want me to continue or stop posting these thumbnails please.
Whats the chart called with the GFS results? like it shows wind speed, temps, humidity?
post away aussie
It's from a program called AVN Retriever 1.12(Download link)
These are the images produced. It is fully customizable.

6.0 east coast of japan honshu
To clarify, what is this called?

NCEP GFS 8-Day Weather Forecast
Hey, look. Bookends:

Whole lotta shakin' goin' on



Magnitude 5.1 - local magnitude (Ml)
Time Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 2:09:28 AM (PST)
Tuesday, February 14, 2012 at 10:09:28 (UTC)
Distance from Calexico, CA - 67 km (41 miles) SSE (152 degrees)
Yuma, AZ - 80 km (50 miles) SW (219 degrees)
Brawley, CA - 98 km (61 miles) SSE (159 degrees)
Ocotillo, CA - 102 km (64 miles) SE (130 degrees)
Coordinates 32 deg. 8.4 min. N (32.141N), 115 deg. 9.6 min. W (115.159W)
Depth 31.1 km (19.3 miles)
Quality Poor
Location Quality Parameters Nst= 19, Nph= 19, Dmin=68 km, Rmss=0.18 sec, Erho=2.2 km, Erzz=19.6 km, Gp=252 degrees
Event ID# ci11066877
Additional Information map ||
WeatherNerdPR,you mentioned Rio Cibuco and here is a warning for those that live in the path of that river.

FLOOD WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SAN JUAN PR
546 AM AST TUE FEB 14 2012

PRC047-101-143-145-141245-
/O.NEW.TJSJ.FA.W.0002.120214T0946Z-120214T1245Z/
/00000.0.ER.000000T0000Z.000000T0000Z.000000T0000 Z.OO/
COROZAL PR-MOROVIS PR-VEGA ALTA PR-VEGA BAJA PR-
546 AM AST TUE FEB 14 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN SAN JUAN HAS EXTENDED THE

* FLOOD WARNING FOR...
COROZAL MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
MOROVIS MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
VEGA ALTA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
VEGA BAJA MUNICIPALITY IN PUERTO RICO...
THIS INCLUDES THE CITY OF VEGA BAJA...

* UNTIL 845 AM AST

* AT 542 AM AST U.S.G.S. RIVER SENSORS INDICATED THAT THE RIO CIBUCO
WAS AT 15.63 FEET...AND THEREFORE STILL ABOVE ITS FLOOD STAGE AND
SLOWLY RISING. AT 16 FEET THE RIVER MAY FLOOD ROAD NUMBER 2 IN VEGA
BAJA AND VEGA ALTA AS WELL AS ROADS 675 AND 676. FOR THOSE
REASONS...THE FLOOD WARNING HAS BEEN EXTENDED UNTIL 845 AM AST.


A FLOOD WARNING MEANS THAT FLOODING IS IMMINENT OR HAS BEEN REPORTED.
STREAM RISES WILL BE SLOW AND FLASH FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED.
HOWEVER...ALL INTERESTED PARTIES SHOULD TAKE NECESSARY PRECAUTIONS
IMMEDIATELY.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

DO NOT DRIVE YOUR VEHICLE INTO AREAS WHERE THE WATER COVERS THE
ROADWAY. THE WATER DEPTH MAY BE TOO GREAT TO ALLOW YOUR CAR TO CROSS
SAFELY. MOVE TO HIGHER GROUND.

A FLOOD WARNING MEANS FLOODING IS OCCURRING OR IS IMMINENT. MOST
FLOOD RELATED DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. DO NOT ATTEMPT TO CROSS
WATER COVERED BRIDGES...DIPS...OR LOW WATER CROSSINGS. NEVER TRY TO
CROSS A FLOWING STREAM...EVEN A SMALL ONE...ON FOOT. TO ESCAPE RISING
WATER MOVE UP TO HIGHER GROUND.

&&

LAT...LON 1849 6641 1847 6633 1829 6633 1831 6644

$$

JJA
Good Morning
I've seen a report of only 1 confirmed fatality so far in Madagascar, though that total will likely rise... Also, what's with all the earthquakes last night: Magnitude 5+ quakes in Greece, Japan, Baja California, and Solomon Islands.
An extract from a BBC report on the Madagascar cyclone, its a short piece but gives a bit of an idea of the reasons we have not got much information out of there:-

"Town criers, who walk around the streets ringing a bell and shouting out information in the local Malagasy language, are normally used by the government in a time of crisis.

But Mr Healy said they were not heard on Monday and it has left many people taken aback by the storm's severity."

Here's the link if anybody wants to copy and paste it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17025328

In reality, things are probably very bad in the coastal villages now.

"THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE SUGGESTIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS OF
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS AIDED BY PHASING
OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH. IF THIS OCCURS...STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS COULD AID
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE AND
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE POTENTIAL
FOR A GREATER SEVERE RISK THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.
"



Possible first hint that a Moderate risk may be required tomorrow?
Fire hose aimed at C & N FL later this week.

Just caught this also...
a major quake in CA would send them straight into bankruptcy

Could be very serious here in FL this weekend. Anybody with weekend plans needs to pay attention to their NWS discussions!

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

THE VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH MODELS INDICATE
WILL DIG INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK...APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS IMPULSE DIGS INLAND ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. VARIABILITY EXISTS
AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL
INTERACTION WITHIN ANY OTHER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW. BUT POTENTIAL DOES SEEM TO EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS COULD BE AIDED BY CONSIDERABLE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AS IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT COULD BECOME FAIRLY HIGH BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. IF THIS OCCURS AS GENERALLY DEPICTED BY THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE ECMWF...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD EVOLVE...AT LEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA...SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS...THOUGH...TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK
Damm! People in the Mid Atlantic need to watch this as well!

Quoting PlazaRed:
An extract from a BBC report on the Madagascar cyclone, its a short piece but gives a bit of an idea of the reasons we have not got much information out of there:-

"Town criers, who walk around the streets ringing a bell and shouting out information in the local Malagasy language, are normally used by the government in a time of crisis.

But Mr Healy said they were not heard on Monday and it has left many people taken aback by the storm's severity."

Here's the link if anybody wants to copy and paste it?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-17025328

In reality, things are probably very bad in the coastal villages now.

No doubt. And not just in the coastal villages, either. Precipitation is difficult to estimate from IR satellite, but there are populated eastern-central parts of the island--in and around Tananarivo, for instance--that appear to have endured a least 30-36 hours of what is likely at times torrential rainfall--and many of those same areas are even now still getting hammered. And, as can't be stressed enough, the majority of the island has been deforested and exfoliated down to the soil; there's really nothing to hold all that water back.

Quoting StormTracker2K:
Damm! People in the Mid Atlantic need to watch this as well!


Just like last year, it's starting back to back....

Tomorrow, people from Shreveport to Jackson and then especially from Jackson to Birmingham need to pay close attention. This has the potential to be a tornado outbreak, featuring a few long-lived, large, damaging tornadoes.

Florida will need to watch through the Days 4-8 period.
Good Morning, did anyone notice Jasmine is still around?
TC13 is headed to Madagascar if it lasts that long:


Also from the SPC Day 2 Convective outlook:
SPC Day 2 Convective Outlook


AND THE ENVIRONMENT PROBABLY WILL
BECOME CONDUCIVE TO THE EVOLUTION OF AN ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTER...OR
CLUSTERS...AND PERHAPS DISCRETE SUPERCELLS...AS WEST SOUTHWESTERLY
500 MB FLOW STRENGTHENS TO 50-70+ KT.

THE ECMWF HAS BEEN MORE SUGGESTIVE THAN THE OTHER MODELS OF
POTENTIAL FOR SIGNIFICANT SURFACE CYCLONE DEEPENING ACROSS THE
MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...PERHAPS AIDED BY PHASING
OF THE SOUTHERN BRANCH IMPULSE WITH A DIGGING NORTHERN BRANCH
TROUGH. IF THIS OCCURS...STRONGER SURFACE PRESSURE FALLS COULD AID
BOUNDARY LAYER DESTABILIZATION ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND ALABAMA...WITH
STRONGER SOUTHERLY 850 MB FLOW ALSO CONTRIBUTING TO LARGE AND
CLOCKWISE CURVED LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPHS. THIS WOULD PROVIDE POTENTIAL
FOR A GREATER SEVERE RISK THAN CURRENTLY INDICATED...INCLUDING THE
POSSIBILITY OF A STRONG TORNADO OR TWO.
Discussion from the Houston-Galveston office of course is not directly applicable to folks north and east of here, but indicates another go round after Wednesday-Thursday. That part of the picture apparently is fuzzy though.

THE VERY ACTIVE WX PATTERN OF LATE SHOULD CONTINUE THE REST OF THE WEEK AS ANOTHER COLD FRONT MOVES INTO THE AREA LATE WEDS...AND BRINGING WITH IT AN INCREASED CHC OF PCPN. HOWEVER THESE LATEST PROGS ARE NOW POINTING TO THE LATTER PART OF FRI INTO SAT AS OUR "BEST" CHCS WITH THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SFC LOW JUST OFF THE TX COASTLINE COMBINED WITH THE WWD PUSH OF THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL LONGWAVE TROF. ATTM THE TIMING OF THESE FEATURES SEEM A LITTLE OUT OF SYNC BUT THESE STRONG DYNAMICS ARE HARD TO IGNORE.
NWS Birmingham, Alabama isn't even mentioning a Severe Weather threat. That's really dangerous considering they'll be in the area with the best tornado threat.

:\
Happy Valentines Day,

Looks like the Charter has been activated for remote sensing over Madagascar. Hope they get some good assistance fast.
Quoting biff4ugo:
Happy Valentines Day,

Looks like the Charter has been activated for remote sensing over Madagascar. Hope they get some good assistance fast.
GEE I hope so to, those people are going to need alot of help
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Could be very serious here in FL this weekend. Anybody with weekend plans needs to pay attention to their NWS discussions!

DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0349 AM CST TUE FEB 14 2012

VALID 171200Z - 221200Z

...PREDICTABILITY TOO LOW TO DELINEATE A REGIONAL SVR RISK AREA...

THE VIGOROUS CLOSED LOW/SHORT WAVE TROUGH...WHICH MODELS INDICATE
WILL DIG INTO NORTHWEST MEXICO LATE THIS WEEK...APPEARS LIKELY TO
REMAIN PROGRESSIVE...AS ANOTHER VIGOROUS IMPULSE DIGS INLAND ACROSS
THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST BY THE WEEKEND. VARIABILITY EXISTS
AMONG THE MODEL DATA CONCERNING WHETHER THERE WILL BE SUBSTANTIAL
INTERACTION WITHIN ANY OTHER IMPULSES EMBEDDED WITHIN THE PREVAILING
SPLIT UPPER FLOW. BUT POTENTIAL DOES SEEM TO EXIST FOR SIGNIFICANT
CYCLOGENESIS ALONG A FRONTAL ZONE ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF OF
MEXICO. THIS COULD BE AIDED BY CONSIDERABLE VIGOROUS CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT...AS IT APPEARS PROBABLE THAT THE GULF BOUNDARY LAYER
MOISTURE CONTENT COULD BECOME FAIRLY HIGH BY THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD. IF THIS OCCURS AS GENERALLY DEPICTED BY THE PAST COUPLE OF
RUNS OF THE ECMWF...IT MAY NOT BE OUT OF THE QUESTION THAT POTENTIAL
FOR A SEVERE WEATHER EVENT COULD EVOLVE...AT LEAST ACROSS
FLORIDA...SATURDAY NIGHT/EARLY SUNDAY
. TOO MUCH UNCERTAINTY STILL
EXISTS...THOUGH...TO CONFIDENTLY DELINEATE A REGIONAL SEVERE RISK
pls keep us in florida up to date on this coming threat ok, ty
Quoting biff4ugo:
Happy Valentines Day,

Looks like the Charter has been activated for remote sensing over Madagascar. Hope they get some good assistance fast.
Madagascar's emergency service now says three people have died, but reports obviously aren't anywhere near complete. In fact, assessments may just be underway along the coast, where there are reports of storm surge making its way several blocks inland.

Giovanna
Based on forecast discussions, it would seem none of the WFOs believe there will be a robust severe weather threat. Jackson MS (as usual), has the greatest threat of severe thunderstorms as far as I can tell.
But remember, due to the system that passed by last night, no one has fully analyzed this next system yet.
Miami NWS Discussion

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH WASHINGTON`S BIRTHDAY...BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ARE NOW IN CLOSER AGREEMENT AS TO THE EVOLUTION OF THE
WEATHER CONDITIONS THROUGH THIS PERIOD. BOTH MODEL SHOW A SHORT
WAVE CURRENTLY OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST MOVING RAPIDLY TO THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY BY THU NIGHT AND INDUCING THE DEVELOPMENT OF
FRONTAL LOW ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN U.S. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MAKE
IT AS FAR SOUTH AS CENTRAL FLORIDA SATURDAY MORNING BEFORE IT
LOOSES SUPPORT AS THE SHORT WAVE MOVES RAPIDLY NE. ANOTHER MORE
VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW SHOULD ENTER THE
NW GULF SATURDAY AND REACH THE PENINSULA BY SUNDAY. GFS HAS THE
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA LATE
SUNDAY/EARLY MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AHEAD AND ALONG IT, FOLLOWED BY
CLEARING ON MONDAY.
Quoting StormTracker2K:
Damm! People in the Mid Atlantic need to watch this as well!


Morning all, Man your all over this stuff for the weekend, Keep me up to date. Gots lots going on this weekend. Still chilly in my neck of the woods this morning 35 when i left for work.
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SH122012 - Tropical Cyclone (<64 kt) GIOVANNA

Enhanced Infrared (IR) Imagery (4 km Mercator)