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Category 4 Funso kills 12 in Mozambique; deadly Alabama tornado rated an EF-3

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 2:48 PM GMT on January 24, 2012

Earth's first major tropical cyclone of 2012 is Tropical Cyclone Funso, a Category 4 storm with 135 mph winds located in the Mozambique Channel between Madagascar and Mozambique. Conditions for intensification have been favorable over the past few days, with light wind shear of 5 - 10 knots, water temperatures of 29°C, and a pocket of high oceanic heat content with warm waters extending to great depth located under the center of the storm. Funso is expected to intensify further and have sustained winds of 145 mph by Wednesday. Fortunately, the center of the storm is expected to remain offshore as the storm moves slowly southwards. The outer spiral bands of Funso have dumped torrential rains on Mozambique the past several days, triggering floods that have killed at least twelve people. The floods have swept across the main north-south highway in the country, cutting off the capital of Maputo from the north and center of the country. Flooding from Funso was made worse by the saturated soils left by Tropical Depression Dando, whose rains caused flooding that killed ten people in the country last week.


Figure 1. Image of Tropical Cyclone Funso taken by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Terra satellite on January 23, 2012. At the time, Funso was a Category 3 storm with 115 mph winds. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.

Yesterday's deadly Clay, Alabama tornado rated an EF-3
A damage survey by the NWS confirmed that the tornado that hit Clay, Alabama yesterday, killing two and injuring over 100, was a strong EF-3 tornado with 150 mph winds. A second EF-3 tornado with 140 mph winds touched down yesterday near Koffman, Alabama, and tore off the roof of a house and a barn. These are the only two EF-3 tornadoes of the year so far. There have been no EF-4 or EF-5 tornadoes yet. NOAA's Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of Southern Texas in their "Slight Risk" region for severe weather today, and portions of East Texas and Western Louisiana in the "Slight RIsk" region for Wednesday, and a few isolated tornadoes are possible in Texas and Louisiana over the next two days.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane Tornado

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

Thanks Doc
Looks like Houston and the rest of SE Texas will receive quite a bit of rain through tomorrow evening. Hopefully the Tornadoes are not a problem
Houston welcomes the rain, some folks might get a little too wet.
There have been no January F5/EF5 tornadoes recorded. In fact, there have only been a small handful of out-of-season--that is, September through February--ones at all in the U.S.:

12/5/1953 - Vicksburg, MS
12/18/1957 - Murphrysboro, IL
10/14/1966 - Belmond, IA
2/21/1971 - Delhi, Lousiana

It's interesting to note that no out-of-season F5/EF5s have occurred since the Fujita scale was developed; in fact, all four of the previous ones were retroactively rated as such based on old photographs and reports rather than on-site surveys immediately after the storms. As such, it's very possible--in fact, likely according to some researchers--that some of the retroactively rated storms were overrated.

There have been just 11 January F4/EF4 tornadoes since 1950.

There have been 68 January F3/EF3s from 1950 to 2010.

Source: Tornado History Project
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #23
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
16:00 PM RET January 24 2012
=======================================

At 12:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (936 hPa) located at 21.3S 39.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 105 knots with gusts of 140 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 8 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T6.0/6.0/S0.0/12 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
15 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
30 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center, extending up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 22.4S 38.9E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 23.4S 39.0E - 105 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 24.3S 39.2E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 25.3S 39.5E - 85 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================

System intensity is more stable for the latest hours. General structure is unchanged. Eye is still minuscule within a very cold 90 to 110 NM central dense overcast.

Within the next 48 hours, the ridge of mid-troposphere situated in the east moves away eastward as an other ridge might rebuilt a bit in the west. After an accelerating for the day on a south-southwestward track, Funso might decelerate again tomorrow and take a southward to south-southeastward track due to ridge going away eastward. Within this forecast period, environmental conditions remain very favorable under a upper level ridge and over high heat content waters. System might keep its current intensity with fluctuations.

From j+3, system should accelerate again and continue to track south-southeastward with a deeper trough coming from the west in the south of the system. At the same time, a westerly vertical wind shear should slowly and then rapidly strengthen and Funso will encounter more and more cold waters. So system might slowly weaken and then begin its extra-tropicalization.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement for this scenario.

According to the actual forecast track, Funso might transit in the west of Europa Island at about 140 km westward. Strong winds with gust in the range of 100/110 km/h and heavy rains are expected.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 18:30 PM UTC..
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #2
TROPICAL LOW 11U
9:00 PM WST January 24 2012
================================

At 8:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (996 hPa) located at 16.0S 111.3E or 720 km north northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 13 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/12 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.0S 109.6E - 35 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.2S 109.0E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 17.9S 109.6E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.0S 110.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

The system continues to track rather quickly to the west, with 15 to 25 knots upper level easterlies shearing most convection to the downwind side of the system center. Curved band and shear pattern analyses both indicate DT of 2.0.

Mid level steering is forecast to weaken dramatically in 12 to 24 hours as the subtropical ridge folds underneath a cutoff over SE Australia. Meanwhile the remains of TC Ethel have undergone extratropical transition into the southern ocean, and the downstream effect of this transition may perturb the model forecasts, so some care needs to be take in assessment of model guidance. Never the less it appear reasonable the in the 24 to 72 hour time frame the system will move in a southerly or south southeasterly direction, closer to northwest cape, whilst intensifying steadily.

Relatively shallow sea surface temperatures may limit the intensity of this system , particularly if it becomes slow moving over waters outh of 20 south.

In the longer term a westerly track is expected to resume.

Strong monsoonal flow is forecast to produce a larger than normal gale radius on this system, and also contribute to a broad area of abnormally high significant wave heights affecting Christmas island, the West Kimberley, and adjacent Pilbara coasts.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin/advisory from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 19:30 PM UTC..
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
======================================

9:30 pm CST a Tropical Low [997 hPa] was located near 12.9S, 130.6E, approximately 60 km south southwest of Darwin, moving south southwest at 18 km/h.

The low is expected to remain slow moving near the coast tonight then move slowly inland during Wednesday.
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
531 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

DISCUSSION...
THERE IS A HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. ALL MODELS WERE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH THE UPPER PATTERN DEVELOPMENT AND EVOLUTION THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. THE 500 MB LOW FORMS OVER SOUTHERN NM/AZ LATER THIS
MORNING...MOVES ALONG THE RIO GRAND TO THE BIG BEND TONIGHT...AND
THEN INTO THE CENTRAL PORTION OF THE STATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. A
WARM FRONT WILL MOVE NORTHWARD ACROSS SE TX THIS MORNING AND THE
FRONT WILL REMAIN NEAR OR NEAR THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING. AS THE UPPER LOW MOVES ACROSS THE STATE
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...THE FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS SE TX.

PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS
LATER THIS MORNING AS THE FRONT MOVES INLAND. MORE LIKELY WILL BE
RAIN DEVELOPMENT AS ISENTROPIC LIFT INCREASING OVERHEAD. ALTHOUGH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...
BEST THUNDER CHANCES WILL BEGIN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

THE MAIN THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL WILL BE LATE
TONIGHT THROUGH MIDDAY WEDNESDAY. SE TX WILL GET INTO THE WARM
SECTOR AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES NORTHWARD NEAR THE WESTERN
COUNTIES OF THE FORECAST AREA. ADD TO THIS THE JET DYNAMICS
ALOFT...THE APPROACHING UPPER LOW...AND FORECAST PW/S OF NEAR 1.7.
THESE PW/S WILL BE NEAR THE HISTORIC MAXIMUM FOR THE SURROUNDING
UPPER AIR SITES FOR THIS TIME OF JANUARY.
THE MODEL SOUNDING
FORECASTS POINT TOWARD DAMAGING WIND AND ISOLATED TORNADOES AS THE
MAIN SEVERE THREAT.

THE HEAVY RAINFALL AND SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL END AS THE FRONT
MOVES ACROSS SE TX WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE WILL
KEEP CLOUDS AND SLIGHT RAIN CHANCES IN PLACE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
THURSDAY. A NORTHWESTERLY PATTERN ALOFT WILL THEN BRING A DRY AND
COOL WEATHER PERIOD FOR THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK.
hmm. hour late. :( lol


Just as I thought..no threat to land!
Got a question for my fellow bloggers: where is the dividing line between the SOuthwest Pacific, and the Southeast Indian ocean? I figured it to be 120E...but if not please tell me :D
SHORT TERM FORECAST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
950 AM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

.NOW...
THROUGH 11 AM...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND MOVE NORTH AT 25
MPH...AND ONSHORE THE COASTAL COUNTIES AND PARISHES...AND TOWARD
THE INTERSTATE 10 CORRIDOR. THE MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL
BE BETWEEN INTRACOASTAL CITY AND THE LOWER ATCHAFALAYA RIVER OUT 20
NM...MOVING INTO PORTIONS OF IBERIA AND SAINT MARY PARISH BETWEEN
NEW IBERIA AND MORGAN CITY. AS WELL AS BETWEEN BEAUMONT AND LAKE CHARLES.
OCCASIONAL LIGHTNING...WIND GUSTS TO 30 MPH...AND HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH RAINFALL RATES BETWEEN 1/2 AND 1 INCH PER HOUR...REDUCING
VISIBILITIES TO BELOW 2 MILES.


Here it comes.



Thanks Dr. Masters

Strong thunderstorms beginning to develop and strengthen across south-central Texas. These storms will have the potential of producing large hail (primary threat), damaging winds (lesser threat), and potentially isolated tornadoes (low threat).
Lets hope this is the last headline this weather system makes. Other than maybe, " Drought relief!"

No injuries in Orange Co. airplane mishap


Officials say there are no injuries following an accident Tuesday morning in which a private plane slid off of the runway while landing at the Orange County airport.

Orange County Sheriff's Deputy Chad Hogan tells 12newsNow.Com the accident appears to be related to bad weather.

Sgt. Hogan said there were others in the plane along with the pilot, but he did not know the number of people onboard.

Trooper Stephanie Davis with the Texas Department of Public Safety says the accident happened around 10 a.m. She said the pilot, Claude Edward Collins, told troopers the runway was wet causing the plane to slide off the paved runaway. Collins escaped without injury to himself and the plane sustained damage to the front landing gear.

The plane was coming from Alabama.

State Troopers are at the Orange County Airport awaiting the FAA to arrive on the scene of the incident.


Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Thanks Dr. Masters

Strong thunderstorms beginning to develop and strengthen across south-central Texas. These storms will have the potential of producing large hail (primary threat), damaging winds (lesser threat), and potentially isolated tornadoes (low threat).
I got 3 inches of Lightning and Thunder but only .05 of rain

GEOMAGNETIC SUDDEN IMPULSE DETECTED:

A Sudden Geomagnetic Impulse of 22 nT in Boulder was detected at 15:04 UTC.
A Geomagnetic Storm Watch is in effect.

CME Impact! The ACE Spacecraft chart did show a sharp change in the Bz data, just after 14:30 UTC. This refers to the relationship between the Suns magnetic field (Interplanetary Magnetic Field (IMF) and Earths magnetic field (Magnetosphere). A geomagnetic sudden impulse of 22 nT was detected at 15:04 UTC, and the Kiruna, Sweden magnetometer data below captures a rapid fluxuation at ground level. The solar wind data is still not available since the Proton Storm began. Geomagnetic Storm conditions will be possible in the hours ahead. You can also follow the latest information on SolarHam Facebook.


Want tips on Viewing the Aurora? Click HERE

Protons are again On The Rise following the impact. See below for more details.

SUMMARY: Geomagnetic Sudden Impulse
Observed: 2012 Jan 24 1504 UTC
Deviation: 22 nT
Station: Boulder

WARNING: Geomagnetic K-index of 5 expected
Valid From: 2012 Jan 24 1445 UTC
Valid To: 2012 Jan 25 0100 UTC
Warning Condition: Onset
NOAA Scale: G1 - Minor



Kiruna Magnetometer After Impact
Strongest Radiation Storm since 2003

The solar proton flux continues at high levels. After the CME impacted Earth this morning, it reached even higher (6300 pfu) and is now the largest radiation storm since October 2003. A Strong S3 Level radiation storm remains in progress.

Proton Flux (Tuesday) - Courtesy of SWPC




Quoting bohonkweatherman:
I got 3 inches of Lightning and Thunder but only .05 of rain


LOL! That is a rather interesting way of stating that. Let us hope that the measurements reverse their order.
Quoting Some1Has2BtheRookie:


LOL! That is a rather interesting way of stating that. Let us hope that the measurements reverse their order.
That is Why Lake Travis is down almost 60 feet, hours of lightning and thunder but besides scattered areas getting decent rain overall the rainfall here since Sept 2010 has been disappointing.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
That is Why Lake Travis is down almost 60 feet, hours of lightning and thunder but besides scattered areas getting decent rain overall the rainfall here since Sept 2010 has been disappointing.


I hear, man. Over the past few weeks, my area has done some catch up on the rain. Lake Houston is still way down, but gaining some. With all the rain we have had lately, we are still 20" below normal.
Looking at Texas radars not too much happening now, mainly light scattered rain not covering too much of the state some heavier showers east of Austin and good rains in La. It hailed in North Austin around 11 am, dime sized plus some areas around Austin got a good half of an inch. Seems the atmosphere is set for possible hail and severe weather during next 24 hrs?
The couple days Houston got tons of rain San Antonio received virtually nothing. The 0.2" so far today is the first rain my new weather station has reported since I put it up after the new year.
Invest 97S

Cyclone Funso 241730Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 939.5mb/ 112.4kt

Raw T# 6.3
Adj T# 6.1
Final T# 5.6

Scene Type: PINHOLE EYE
Here come the first line of storms associated with the warm front in Texas. A fairly nasty one looks like it will move right over my head within an hour.



The warm front itself I would guess to be about 75-100 miles south of the leading edge of the storms based on the windshift from east to more southerly.



The instability is on the rise as well, but remains elevated north of the warm front based on differences between the ML and MU CAPE (respectively).




Helicities remain rather unimpressive but appear to be on the rise in the warm sector south of the warm front.



PWs are quite high and also on the rise through a deep layer of the atmosphere.



More bad news from Mozambique:

Death toll at 25, thousands homeless in Mozambique floods

Funso has now killed at least 40 people - one of the deadliest storms in the basin in recent years...
Photos from the Alabama tornadoes.
Currently

Solar X-Rays:ACTIVE

Geomagnetic Field:UNSETTLED

VHF Aurora:MID LATITUDE AURORA
If an admin is reading. Please check my mail account the user frankfish is spamming.
Quoting SPLbeater:
hmm. hour late. :( lol


Just as I thought..no threat to land!


That is the gfs track. It's finally picked up on 98S. Yesterday it had it as 2 different future storms & a weak current. CMC has been it on the longest & NOGAPS has come in agreement for it to stay weak but head south, dissipating just offshore. 98S has so much moisture, if it stays weak & heads as those two models suggest, it could be a flooding hazard.

Here's NOGAPS..those waters are warm.

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
If an admin is reading. Please check my mail account the user frankfish is spamming.


maybe he jus dont like you cuz all he has ever done to me is alert me that there is a new blog up lol. and this is positive not negative :D
Quoting Skyepony:


That is the gfs track. It's finally picked up on 98S. Yesterday it had it as 2 different future storms & a weak current. CMC has been it on the longest & NOGAPS has come in agreement for it to stay weak but head south, dissipating just offshore. 98S has so much moisture, if it stays week & heads as those two models suggest, it could be a flooding hazard.

Here's NOGAPS..those waters are warm.



ah...GFS..lol. well the Government of Australia Bureau of Meteorology says it will say bye bye to australia then come back around say hello near the N.W. Cape of WA
Quoting SPLbeater:


maybe he jus dont like you cuz all he has ever done to me is alert me that there is a new blog up lol. and this is positive not negative :D
he mails subliminal messages and unfortunately no block or report button. Or maybe i overlooked it.
More Funso models veering off & brushing land..

Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
he mails subliminal messages and unfortunately no block or report button. Or maybe i overlooked it.


ah...well, im not getting involved:)
Quoting Skyepony:
More Funso models veering off & brushing land..

reminds me of ophelia and how it swirled around the coast of NC.
Well im going to get set up a position where I can pound my dad with Nerf bullets when he comes home from work LOL...be back soon
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
he mails subliminal messages and unfortunately no block or report button. Or maybe i overlooked it.


Send the offending mail to wunderblogadmin.
Quoting Patrap:
Real-time Magnetosphere Simulation

There sure are a lot of neat looking charts for monitoring solar activity. Unfortunately, I don't really understand any of them lol
Quoting drg0dOwnCountry:
If an admin is reading. Please check my mail account the user frankfish is spamming.
Yep, I got mail from frankfish too. I just ignored it and moved on.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin #3
TROPICAL LOW 11U
3:00 AM WST January 25 2012
================================

At 2:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 16.1S 109.7E or 800 km northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 12 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.5/18 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.3S 108.6E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.6S 108.3E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 18.6S 109.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.7S 110.4E - 75 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

The system has built an upper level high over the center, and convection is beginning to consolidate near the center. Microwave imagery suggests a reasonable curved band structure is developing under the cirrus overcast.

Shear/curved bands can be construed to suggest a DT of 3.0, however both MET and PATTERN at 2.5 are more clear cut. Recent ASCAT pass suggests 30 knots on the western side under deep convection, with 15 knots to the east.

Mid level steering is forecast to weaken dramatically in 12 to 24 hours as the subtropical ridge folds underneath a cutoff over SE Australia. The impact of the change in steering should be viewed with some caution as the model guidance will no doubt have been impacted by influence of the extratropical of TC Ethel into the Southern Ocean. However, in the 24 to 72 hour time frame it appears likely the system will move in a southerly or south southeasterly direction, closer to NW cape, whilst intensifying steadily.

Relatively shallow sea surface temperature may limit the intensity of this system, particularly if it becomes slow moving over waters south of 20 south.

Strong monsoonal flow is forecast to produce a larger than normal gale radius on this system, and also contribute to a broad area of abnormally high significant wave heights affecting Christmas island, the West Kimberley, and adjacent Pilbara coasts.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin/advisory from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 1:30 AM UTC..
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #24
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
22:00 PM RET January 24 2012
=======================================

At 18:00 PM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (939 hPa) located at 21.8S 39.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 100 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving south southwest at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5/6.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
40 NM radius from the center extending up to 55 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
60 NM radius from the center, extending up to 90 NM in th northwestern quadrant and up to 110 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
70 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the northwestern quadrant and up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 22.8S 38.8E - 95 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
24 HRS: 23.2S 38.9E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 24.1S 39.2E - 110 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 25.5S 39.4E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)

Additional Information
======================

F17 SSMIS 1451 PM UTC shows an outer eyewall closing at about 25 nm radius from the center. An eyewall replacement cycle has probably began , which should weakened Funso intensity within the next hours. Neither METEOSAT7 infrared imagery nor msg2 night special colored composite product do not allow to confirm that the eyewall replacement cycle has began but short range intensity forecast reflects this high probability.

System keeps on tracking globally southwards under the steering influence of the mid-level ridge existing in its east. This ridge is expected to move away as another one strengthens on the west of the system. Funso is consequently expected to slow down again within Wednesday 25. If the eyewall replacement cycle is complete, Funso should start a new intensifying phase. Environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable Wednesday 25 under the upper level ridge with an expected building second outflow channel poleward.

This environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable up to Friday 27. Then, from Saturday 28, funso is expected to accelerate south-southeastwards in relationship with a deep trough transiting in the mid-latitude. At this range, system will undergoing both cooler sea surface temperatures and an strengthening westerly vertical wind shear in the same time. Funso should weaken and then begin its extra-tropical transition.

Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement for this scenario. According to the actual forecast track, Funso might transit in the west of Europa island at about 150 km westward during the next 12 hours. Strong winds gusting at about 100/110 km/h and heavy rains are expected. A transiting track more closer than expected is not excluded at this time.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 1:30 AM UTC..
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
==========================================

3:30 am CST a Tropical Low [996 hPa] was located near 13.6S 130.7E, approximately 60 km southwest of Adelaide River, moving south southwest at 7 knots.

The low is expected to turn southeast and move further inland today.

NASA's Opportunity rover celebrates 8th anniversary on Mars.

Link
A bit off subject but if anybody cares to read it and I assume some will, here is a link to the ongoing effects of the Japan nuclear disaster and financial problems it appears to have caused.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/24/us-japa n-economy-trade-idUSTRE80N0QX20120124

Apparently the economy has taken a bit of a nosedive and is now having to import lots of energy fuels as the nuclear programme cannot supply the countries needs. Here's a small extract I have copied from the article, which is self explanatory:-

"Official trade figures due for release on Wednesday are expected to show that Japan swung to a deficit for the first time since 1980, as utilities purchased fossil fuels for power stations to make up for the loss of nuclear power."

A spot more CO2 for the cauldron?

James Spann is well known in the meteorology world and a fellow broadcast met. In his blog today, he blasts Diane Sawyer and ABC Evening News for her complete disregard to journalism, using false sensationalism to "grab" the viewer.

Link
The Weak to Moderate La Nina that is presently in the Pacific is not showing signs of going away anytime soon. Let's see what will occur in the Spring months that will be the key period to know if the 2012 Atlantic Hurricane season will be active or not. Skyepony,what is the latest ESPI data?

Quoting PlazaRed:
A bit off subject but if anybody cares to read it and I assume some will, here is a link to the ongoing effects of the Japan nuclear disaster and financial problems it appears to have caused.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/24/us-japa n-economy-trade-idUSTRE80N0QX20120124

Apparently the economy has taken a bit of a nosedive and is now having to import lots of energy fuels as the nuclear programme cannot supply the countries needs. Here's a small extract I have copied from the article, which is self explanatory:-

"Official trade figures due for release on Wednesday are expected to show that Japan swung to a deficit for the first time since 1980, as utilities purchased fossil fuels for power stations to make up for the loss of nuclear power."

A spot more CO2 for the cauldron?



That contradicts things I've seen that Japan's govt has been imposing strict power efficiency measures & restrictions. The actual usage was way less than forecast & reported. Definitely seeing a backlash from the pro-nuclear community & govt there in disinformation & removing anti-nuclear protests from govt lands.
& how about the earthquake junkies.. I'm seeing something about another earthquake under Fukushima today..4.5. Maybe hydrogen explosions?
Fukushima cam. It's 4Xs faster than actual time. Earthquake at 1:55.

Was noticing the fire at the base of the tower after & read the rest of the article. Guess a glow starts there shortly before the shock or quake..
Quoting PlazaRed:
A bit off subject but if anybody cares to read it and I assume some will, here is a link to the ongoing effects of the Japan nuclear disaster and financial problems it appears to have caused.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2012/01/24/us-japa n-economy-trade-idUSTRE80N0QX20120124

Apparently the economy has taken a bit of a nosedive and is now having to import lots of energy fuels as the nuclear programme cannot supply the countries needs. Here's a small extract I have copied from the article, which is self explanatory:-

"Official trade figures due for release on Wednesday are expected to show that Japan swung to a deficit for the first time since 1980, as utilities purchased fossil fuels for power stations to make up for the loss of nuclear power."

A spot more CO2 for the cauldron?



last night i was finishing up a documentary called "We Take New Guinea" where in Feb. 1944 the US and Australia was takin it from the Japanese..but at the end it showed why Japan attacked Pearl Harbor. it was because they needed resources to export and make money, so they took part of China. They planned on taking Pacific islands, but had to do away with U.S. navy in Pearl harbor. so, they attacked:)

that passage made me think of this
I give up on winter.... I'm putting my coats and snow boots and shovels and salt away. It just isn't going to happen. Bring on spring!!!
Quoting WxGeekVA:
I give up on winter.... I'm putting my coats and snow boots and shovels and salt away. It just isn't going to happen. Bring on spring!!!

It reached 77F degrees today.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It reached 77F degrees today.


You aren't helping my lack-o-snow depression..... lol
EWRC starting?



Otherwise, Funso may have peaked.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

It reached 77F degrees today.


i got to 58. shorts weather
Pacific

Atlantic

Also looks like areas west and south of Dallas got some good rain today...Estimated 1-2 inches.
National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) mean forecasts warm-neutral Nino 3.4 for the summer:





The mean SST shows a neutral Atlantic with slight cooling in the Carribean:





GFDL shows the warmest Atlantic:




NASA the coolest


Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:
National Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) mean forecasts warm-neutral Nino 3.4 for the summer:





The mean SST shows a neutral Atlantic with slight cooling in the Carribean:





GFDL shows the warmest Atlantic:




NASA the coolest




NASA is definitely cool.... If I wasn't planning on being a met i would be an astronaut :P
I find it rather ironic about the two solar storms.Some of the largest occured in both 2003,and 05 which were both bad hurricane seasons for the U.S.Is their some coincodence?????
Quoting Patrap:
Strongest Radiation Storm since 2003

The solar proton flux continues at high levels. After the CME impacted Earth this morning, it reached even higher (6300 pfu) and is now the largest radiation storm since October 2003. A Strong S3 Level radiation storm remains in progress.

Proton Flux (Tuesday) - Courtesy of SWPC






Could be much worse... http://www.robertschoch.com/plasma.html

Then check his education background.
Very nice rain in Texas. Hopefully Texas will have a better year.

Quoting WxGeekVA:
I give up on winter.... I'm putting my coats and snow boots and shovels and salt away. It just isn't going to happen. Bring on spring!!!
This winter suuuuuuuuuuuucks so much.
My cousin's school in Gold Coast, Queensland, Australia cancelled classes today. Apparently it's been raining pretty heavily out there, so they've been having flooding.

Quick news search:

Extreme weather threat across Australia

Dorrigo was inundated with as much as 100mm (4 inches) in just one hour and 209mm (8 inches) during the past 24 hours, their heaviest rain since May 2009. . . The rain will be focused from the Queensland Capricornia district down to the NSW mid north coast. Rain totals from today to Friday are likely to range from 300-400mm (10-15 inches) in parts.
Link

Funso is going through an EWRC. It has probably already peaked.
Funso at its peak.
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #25
CYCLONE TROPICAL INTENSE FUNSO (08-20112012)
4:00 AM RET January 25 2012
=======================================

At 0:00 AM UTC, Intense Tropical Cyclone Funso (941 hPa) located at 22.5S 38.0E has 10 minute sustained winds of 95 knots with gusts of 135 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southwest at 6 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T5.0/5.5/W 1.0/12 H

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
50 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
70 NM radius from the center extending up to 80 NM from the center in the eastern semi-circle

Gale Force Winds
=================
105 NM radius from the center, extending up to 125 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
130 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 23.0S 38.4E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 23.6S 38.6E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
48 HRS: 24.7S 39.0E - 100 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 26.4S 39.4E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)

Additional Information
======================

In relationship with an ongoing eyewall replacement cycle (refer to SSMIS F17 24/1451 PM UTC), Funso satellite feature has deteriorated and the pinhole eye has dissipated, replaced by a bad defined and colder eye. System is weakening. Neither METEOSAT7 infrared imagery nor msg2 night special colored composite product do not allow to confirm that the eyewall replacement cycle is underway but short range intensity forecast reflects this very high probability. System is tracking globally southwestwards under the steering influence of a mid-latitude trough transiting in the south and the mid-level ridge existing in its east.

The polar trough is expected to evacuate rapidly. Then, under the only steering influence of the aforementioned ridge, system is expected to shift slowly south southeastwards within the next 72 hours.

Over this forecast track , environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable under the upper level ridge and sustained by a building second outflow channel poleward this Wednesday 25. This environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable up to Friday 27. When the eyewall replacement cycle will be complete, Funso should start a new intensifying phase. From Saturday 28, Funso is expected to accelerate south-southeastwards in relationship with a deep trough transiting in the mid-latitude. At this range, system will undergoing both cooler sea surface temperature and an strengthening westerly vertical wind shear in the same time. Funso should weaken and then begin its extra-tropical transition. Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement for this scenario.

According to the current forecast track, Funso is expected to slowly track away from Europa island.
Strong winds gusting at about 100/110 km/h should occur today and the next night.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 7:30 AM UTC..
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 11U
9:00 AM WST January 25 2012
================================

At 8:00 AM WST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 16.0S 109.3E or 830 km northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 6 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.0/2.0/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.2S 108.5E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 16.7S 108.7E - 45 knots (CAT 1)
48 HRS: 18.9S 110.0E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.8S 110.6E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

Curvature is slowly improving. Wrap of 0.3 analyzed on recent imagery. DT=MET=PT=FT=CI=2.0. Recent ASCAT pass suggests 25-30 knots on the western side under deep convection, with monsoon flow removed to the north and 15 knots close to the center in other quadrants.

Mid level steering is forecast to weaken dramatically in 12 to 24 hours as the subtropical ridge folds underneath a cutoff over SE Australia. The impact of the change in steering should be viewed with some caution as the model guidance will no doubt have been impacted by influence of the extratropical transition of TC Ethel into the Southern Ocean. However, in the 24 to 72 hour time frame it appears likely the system will move in a southerly or south southeasterly direction, closer to NW cape, whilst intensifying steadily. Relatively shallow sea surface temperature may limit the intensity of this system, particularly if it becomes slow moving over waters south of 20.0S.

The steering pattern may also be complicated by an area of convection that has developed to the east of this system in the monsoon trough. One model reflects this development and shows a complex interaction between the two systems.

Strong monsoonal flow is likely to contribute to a broad area of abnormally high significant wave heights affecting Christmas Island, the west Kimberley, and adjacent Pilbara coasts. The new development and the strong monsoon flow may also produce heavy rainfall on the coast well to the east of the current low, extending into the Kimberley.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin/advisory from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 7:30 AM UTC..
Quoting Ameister12:
Funso at its peak.


This was probably peak intensity, about 9 hours ago:

80 degrees here today. Are we still in January?
Quoting washingtonian115:
This winter suuuuuuuuuuuucks so much.
I agree, at least parts of Texas are getting good rains even though I am not but the temps have not been winter-like at all. I like Cold Weather but looks like we won't be getting any this year.
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
==========================================

At 9:30 am CST a Tropical Low [995 hPa] was located over land near 13.9S 130.2E, approximately 60 km south of Daly River Mouth, moving south southwest at 5 knots.

The low is expected become slow moving today before taking a more southeast track inland during Thursday.
Quoting ChillinInTheKeys:

NASA's Opportunity rover celebrates 8th anniversary on Mars.

Link


What an outstanding accomplishment. 8 years ago tonight I was watching the landing on NASA TV. "It's bouncing on the surface!"
Rain brings chaos to soaked south-east Qld

Queensland's Gold Coast is braced for more flash flooding today as the heavy rain which has soaked the south-east of the state moves onto the coastline.

Hundreds of millimetres of rain has been dumped across Brisbane and the Gold and Sunshine coasts, bringing flash flooding, landslips, hundreds of road closures and evacuations.

The saying flooding could worsen in some areas, with more heavy rain predicted throughout the day and for the rest of the week.


Authorities on the Gold Coast are preparing to evacuate homes near Loder Creek in Chirn Park and some parts of Southport.

Some flights have been cancelled from Coolangatta Airport and others are being diverted to Brisbane.

A number of roads in the region are closed with reports of deep water over roads around Tweed Heads.

"It was going up over the bonnet of our car so it is as high as we have ever seen it before," one driver named Robyn said.

"It was like being in a boat actually because the cars were coming in the opposite direction as well and there were bow waves going over the cars, over the bonnet."

Overnight, Upper Springbrook saw some of the heaviest rainfalls, with 193 millimetres in the 12 hours to 6:00am. Lower Springbrook recorded 173mm, Upper Tallebudgera had 142mm and there was 127mm at Mt Tamborine. Brisbane city and suburbs saw between 80 and 120 millimetres.

South of Brisbane, three people have been rescued from the roof a car at Oxenford after the car was swept off a road into a creek and onto a small island which is surrounded by about 100 metres of raging water.

Greg Tomlinson, from the Fire and Rescue Service, says it was a difficult rescue.

"They had to set up a little bit more of an elaborate system using a pulley system and a rescue boat," he said.

"There was three male occupants in that vehicle. They were stranded on an island surrounded by about 100 metres of water but the rescue crews effected the rescue and everyone's safe now on dry land."

Two women reported missing this morning near the Glass House Mountains have since been found safe after their car was swept off a flooded road last night.


'Long, hard night'

Fox Rogers from the Sunshine Coast disaster management centre says there are fears some small towns there could become isolated.

"If the rain continues to fall at the current rate, yes it's quite likely that some of these small townships will be isolated," he said.

"That can happen fairly quickly; the water comes up as it rains, and then the water can also go down. It really will depend on the amount of rain that keeps falling over the next few hours."

Police have reported dozens of traffic incidents since the big wet began and officials are warning people to stay out of floodwaters.

EMQ director of operations Warren Bridson says emergency crews worked through a "long, hard night" all over the south-east of the state.

"The predictions are... more rain tonight and again tomorrow [Wednesday]," he said last night.

"I would expect the disaster management systems will escalate [on Wednesday], if that transpires therefore there will be more activities around the local disaster management groups.

"We're asking the community to really be aware tonight about what's predicted."

Brett Harrison from the weather bureau says today's outlook for south-east Queensland is almost identical to yesterday.

"There is expected to be more rain areas throughout the day," he said.

"We have seen the rain extending a little bit further inland, particularly getting closer to the south-eastern parts of the Darling Downs, but generally expecting rain areas to continue right along the eastern districts of the south-east coast."

Police have warned a high tide of 2.64 metres around 10:50am (AEST) could cause flooding in parts of Brisbane, such as Newstead.

The state's disaster coordinators are meeting this morning to discuss the situation.


Yesterday evacuation centres were opened at Narangba and Deception Bay, north of Brisbane, with about a dozen homes evacuated in Burpengary.

Yesterday three people escaped after their car was stuck on a flooded road in Brisbane's south-west and cars were seen floating on some streets in the inner city.

Thousands of homes were without power yesterday.

Seqwater says it will release water from Wivehoe Dam this morning to bring the massive dam, west of Brisbane, back to the "full" supply level.

A spokesman says urban areas should not be affected but the releases are expected to cut Twin Bridges and Savages Crossing, while Colleges Crossing may also be affected

Gates have also been opened at Leslie Harrison and North Pine Dams, and nine ungated dams across the south-east are spilling.

© ABC 2012
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
Darwin Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
==========================================

At 9:30 am CST a Tropical Low [995 hPa] was located over land near 13.9S 130.2E, approximately 60 km south of Daly River Mouth, moving south southwest at 5 knots.

The low is expected become slow moving today before taking a more southeast track inland during Thursday.


Top End braces for more bursts of stormy weather

The Top End is bracing for more wild weather over the next few days after heavy rain and strong winds caused power failures and airline and traffic problems in Darwin overnight.

The Darwin airport runway flooded last night and was battered by winds of more than 90km/h, causing some flights to be diverted, cancelled and delayed.

A Jetstar flight had to return to Melbourne and a Qantas flight from Sydney was diverted to Alice Springs.

A Qantas flight from Cairns was cancelled.

Delays could continue today due to bad weather in the Top End, Queensland and northern New South Wales.

Darwin International Airport operations manager Alex McDowell says delays in other parts of the country could also have a run-on effect in the Top End.

Flights out of Darwin resumed this morning.

More than 200 millimetres of rain fell in some parts of the city overnight.

Power and Water crews worked to restore electricity supplies to Dundee Beach, Wagait, and Mandorah this morning.

Homes in the Darwin River area were also left without power for about an hour.

Northern Territory Police have warned motorists to be careful on the roads, with debris and local flooding causing creating hazardous conditions.

The ferry service between Mandorah and Darwin remains closed because of safety concerns about the severe weather associated with a tropical low and monsoon trough.

Fast Ferries says a trial run will be done later today without any passengers before deciding if it is safe to resume operations.

Meanwhile, the Tiwi Islands Shire Council says planned Australia Day celebrations on the islands tomorrow have been cancelled.

The council says weather conditions are getting worse because of the tropical low and monsoon trough in the area.

The Islands of Origin football match, citizenship ceremony, Local Government Australia Day Awards and barbeque have been called off and will be re-scheduled at a later date.

Water levels at river crossings have started to rise across the Top End.

A severe weather warning remains current for the Darwin-Daly and Arnhem districts.


© ABC 2012
Might be another rough round of tears from the sky in a few more days watch out for tornado threats also in the mid states



My week long tribute to another great artist gone but never forgotten.

Link
NSW residents cut off with more rain on the way

Isolated communities across northern New South Wales are being warned to prepare for more rain and flash flooding today and for the rest of the week.

River levels are starting to fall in the region, but the flood threat is far from over, with a severe weather system from Queensland moving south.

for the state's Mid North coast and Northern Rivers.

Overnight the Tweed Valley saw heavy falls with 86 millimetres of rain at Couchy Creek, 100mm at Numinbah and 100mm at Bald Mountain.


Residents are cut-off in the town of Darkwood, near Coffs Harbour, and in Bellingen, on the Mid North Coast, where the flooded Bellinger River has cut the town in two.

More than a dozen homes and businesses in Bellingen have been inundated.

People living in remote parts of the Thora and Kalang valleys are also isolated by floodwaters.

A landslide and waterfalls have blocked the Waterfall Way between Dorrigo and Bellingen.

The riverfront caravan park downstream, near the coast at Repton, has been evacuated as a precautionary measure.


Becky Gollings from the State Emergency Service says about 500 residents are stranded by floodwaters in Darkwood.

She says heavy rain is expected to continue for a few more days.

"We're expecting a bit of a reprieve on Thursday, but then that rain is likely to pick up again on Friday and continue right through the weekend," she said.

"We've still got a severe weather warning in place for flash flooding for people in the Northern Tablelands, Mid North Coast and Northern Rivers."

Ms Gollings says holidaymakers and farmers in the area need to make preparations.

"All those rural landholders, if they can move their livestock and equipment to higher ground," she said.

"Those holidaymakers who are out at the moment and especially for Australia Day, if you're camping near a river or a creek or a causeway, move out of those areas because they can become flooded quite quickly and people can get into trouble."

The Bureau of Meteorology's Ellie Spark says flash flooding is likely across the region in the coming days.

"It certainly isn't over, we're right in the middle of it. When it does start to ease-off it won't be over," she said.

"Expecting more early next week as well."

Flood warnings are current for the Bellinger, Orara and Nambucca Rivers, while there is a watch in place for the Tweed, Richmond, Wilsons, Macleay and Hastings river valleys.

Meanwhile, for strong winds and big surf on the NSW north coast between Point Danger and Wooli.


© ABC 2012
Charleville nervous as Warrego River rises

Authorities are keeping a close watch on the rising Warrego River in south-west Queensland, as the deluge across the state's south continues.

Water is over the road in several streets in Charleville, from Bradley's Gully that runs through the town.

Motorists are being advised to avoid floodwaters.

One bridge over the Warrego River has been closed and authorities are considering whether they will need to close the second bridge in the coming days.

The Murweh Shire Council says it may need to install floodgates if the Warrego River continues to rise.

It is expected to reach 5.5 metres but the council says if the river rises above six metres the Mitchell Highway at the Warrego River bridge will need to be closed.

The council's disaster manager, Neil Polglase, says residents are nervous, given the town's history but the situation is being closely monitored.

"Flooding will be in the Warrego River, however, well inside the levee bank and we don't anticipate any concern to Charleville at this stage," he said.

"Bradley's Gully is being monitored and our only concern is if there was a major overnight rainfall that needed to be regularly monitored."

The council is asking residents to have adequate food supplies in reserve.


© ABC 2012
Southeast QLD flooded by heavy rain

Southeast Queensland has been inundated by heavy rainfall during the past 24 hours, with widespread totals of 150-250mm, and the deluge is not done yet.

Moist northeast winds are converging into a surface trough over southeast Queensland. The converging surface winds are also being supported by an upper level trough, drawing moisture deep into the atmosphere leading to the heavy rain.

Brisbane has gained more than 160mm of rain since 9am on Tuesday, which has already made this the heaviest daily total in 23 years when 191mm of rain fell over the city.

The largest rainfall totals have fallen north of Brisbane, where major flooding is occuring. The Sugarbad Road weather station near Golden Beach, has recorded 280mm since 9am yesterday. This heavy rain has lead to major flooding along the Mooloolah River at Jordan Street.

This morning, the heaviest rain is affecting the Gold Coast, stretching inland to the southern border ranges east of Wilsons Peak. Rain rates have been totaling as much as 20-30mm in one hour periods, with flash flooding a continuing concern for the region.

For the remainder of the day, the rain will remain persistent and heavy across the state's southeast. A further 100-200mm is expected over a broad area from the Wide Bay and Burnett District to the Southeast Coast during the next 24-hours, which includes Brisbane. This is likely to lead to further stream rises and flash flooding.

© Weatherzone 2012
Situation deteriorating in flooded south-east Qld

Emergency Management Queensland (EMQ) says torrential rain that has caused chaos around the state's south-east on Tuesday is only going to get heavier.

Hundreds of millimetres of rain has been dumped across the Gold and Sunshine coasts and Brisbane, bringing flash flooding, landslips and hundreds of road closures.

Evacuation centres have been opened at Narangba and Deception Bay, north of Brisbane, with about a dozen homes evacuated in Burpengary.




The Bureau of Meteorology says flooding could worsen in some areas with more rain expected across the region overnight and wet weather forecast for the rest of the week.

Police have reported dozens of traffic incidents since the big wet began and officials are warning people to stay out of floodwaters.

EMQ director of operations Warren Bridson says the situation is deteriorating.

"The rain is going to get heavier particularly between Maroochydore and Brisbane city in the next couple of hours, which means our State Emergency Service personnel are escalating their response," he said.

"We've had about 500 calls for assistance up until now and of course that is increasing all the time."

Mr Bridson says emergency crews will work through the night.

"The predictions are... more rain tonight and again tomorrow. I would expect the disaster management systems will escalate tomorrow if that transpires therefore there will be more activities around the local disaster management groups," he said.

He says it will be a long night for residents throughout the south-east.

"We're asking the community to really be aware tonight about what's predicted," he said.

"To take care on the roads and to be patient if they make calls to the State Emergency Service because it's going to be a long, hard night for the SES people in the south-east."

Weather bureau spokeswoman Michelle Berry says the wet conditions are likely to continue until next Tuesday.

"This is certainly quite a severe event that's occurring throughout south-eastern Queensland at the moment," she said.

"We can get these very moist air streams through the summer months.

"It doesn't have the same depth of moisture as what we were seeing through January of last year but it's certainly a very severe event ands that's why we are warning for it continuing into tomorrow also."

Rescues



Twelve homes were evacuated as a precaution at Burpengary, north of Brisbane, and another dozen homes have been flooded further north on the Sunshine Coast.

About 275 millimetres has fallen at Caloundra since 9am AEST Tuesday.

Fox Rogers from the Sunshine Coast regional council's disaster management centre has told ABC local radio in Brisbane there are fears some small towns could become isolated.

"If the rain continues to fall at the current rate, yes it's quite likely that some of these small townships will be isolated," he said.

"That can happen fairly quickly; the water comes up as it rains, and then the water can also go down. It really will depend on the amount of rain that keeps falling over the next few hours."

Thunderstorms were also dumping heavy rain across the north of the state, with more than 100mm recorded near Innisfail and more than 140mm near Mackay since Monday.

Areas between Bundaberg and Goondiwindi are also bracing for falls of more than 200 millimetres over the next 24 hours.

At Boondall, in Brisbane's north, a childcare centre was inundated and the downpour also caused delays at Brisbane airport.

Three people escaped after their car was stuck on a flooded road in Brisbane's south-west and cars were seen floating on some streets in the inner city.



Energex says power has been cut to 9,500 homes and businesses across the south-east.

The downpour has prompted SEQ Water's flood operations centre to order releases from Leslie Harrison Dam and North Pine Dam.

There are no releases planned yet for Wivenhoe Dam, which is at 76 per cent and capacity and rising.

Elsewhere, homes are being sandbagged in Ipswich, west of Brisbane, while a motorist had to be rescued from a flooded road this morning on the Gold Coast.

Nearly 200 millimetres of rain was recorded in the Gold Coast hinterland in 24 hours.

Swift water rescue specialists are on standby with localised flooding expected to worsen on the Gold Coast.

Queensland Fire and Rescue Service spokesman Bruce Byatt has warned people to stay out of floodwaters.

"In a very short space of time you can be in difficulty and lose your lives," he said.


© ABC 2012
Quoting washingtonian115:
This winter suuuuuuuuuuuucks so much.


i think its awesome cuz its in the 50's 0r 60's 95% of the time and hey thats what i like closest to summer as possible but i guess we all different, lol
NSW north coast braces as floodwaters rise

Residents are bracing for major flooding on the New South Wales mid-north coast, with some communities already isolated by rising waters.

The State Emergency Service (SES) says the main concern is the Bellinger Valley, where the town of Bellingen has been cut in two by the swollen Bellinger River, with both halves of the town now isolated.

More than a dozen homes and businesses there have been inundated.

Assistant commissioner Greg Newton, from the State Emergency Service, says other small communities have also been affected.

"Down around Darkwood, we've got about 300 residents who've been isolated by floodwaters throughout the Bellinger Valley and various other areas there are isolations of various people," he said.

The Bureau of Meteorology is predicting further heavy rain over the next few days and a severe weather warning remains in place for the Northern Tablelands, Northern Rivers and Mid North Coast.

SES spokeswoman Becky Gollings says holidaymakers and farmers in the area need to make preparations.

"All those rural landholders, if they can move their livestock and equipment to higher ground," she said.

"Those holidaymakers who are out at the moment and especially for Australia Day, if you're camping near a river or a creek or a causeway, move out of those areas because they can become flooded quite quickly and people can get into trouble."


People living in remote parts of the Thora and Kalang valleys are cut off by floodwater.

Darcy Browning has lived in the upper Bellinger catchment for almost 50 years and says it is shaping up to be a big flood.

"We have what I regard as, at this stage, the bottom end of what I consider to be a major flood and it's still raining very heavily," he said.

"Of course as I live up the top end of Darkwood everybody up here is well and truly isolated."

A landslide and waterfalls have blocked the Waterfall Way between Dorrigo and Bellingen.

The riverfront caravan park downstream near the coast at Repton is being evacuated as a precautionary measure.

There is also a flood warning for the Orara River west of Coffs Harbour, with the Orara Way between Coffs Harbour and Grafton cut off.

Flood watches are in place for the Macleay River near Kempsey and the Hastings near Port Macquarie.

The forecast is for seven more days of rain.

Big surf


Meanwhile, strong easterly winds and large waves are expected over the next few days.

The weather bureau is predicting swells of up to three metres.

The big surf has already led to beach closures around Port Macquarie and lifeguards are monitoring the situation closely.

Senior lifeguard Grant Hudson says beach-goers must be extremely careful.

"With so much swell in our beaches at the moment, and with a strong wind gust, we can see a bit of a spike in swell," he said.

"We do ask all beach users if they do go to use the beach over the next few days, with this warning being out, always check with a lifeguard or surf lifesaver.

"Also, if you are going rock fishing, do stay away from those dangerous areas."

A cold front is making its way towards the coast from the southern Tasman Sea.

Mr Hudson says the beach probably is not the place to be on Australia Day.

"It is a very easterly swell and the wind is coming form that easterly direction, all the beaches are going to be affected," he said.

"If you do go to the beach, just make sure you do have a chat with someone, the lifeguards or the surf savers.

"That way you'll know why it's open and why it may be closed.

"The more information you do have out there, the safer you will be."


© ABC 2012


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0064
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0713 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...EDWARDS PLATEAU...HILL COUNTRY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 250113Z - 250245Z

THREAT FOR LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED DAMAGING WINDS...AND PERHAPS A
TORNADO WILL INCREASE AS TSTM COVERAGE GROWS LATER THIS EVENING.
ALTHOUGH UNCERTAINTY EXISTS OVER THE TYPE OF WW...THE PROBABILITY OF
ISSUANCE BY 03Z IS 60 PERCENT.

01Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACED A SERIES OF WEAK CYCLONES ACROSS THE
PERMIAN BASIN/BIG BEND...AND ALONG THE RIO GRANDE BETWEEN DRT AND
LRD. PRIMARY SURFACE WARM FRONT HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY S OF THE
HILL COUNTRY WITH A RELATIVELY RICH WARM/MOIST AIR MASS ACROSS MUCH
OF S-CNTRL TX. FARTHER NW...MORE MARGINAL SURFACE-BASED INSTABILITY
EXISTS WITH A STRONG CAPPING INVERSION CENTERED NEAR 800 MB IN THE
00Z DRT RAOB. THIS CAPPING INVERSION WILL BE GRADUALLY REMOVED AS
BAND OF FORCED ASCENT /NOW CROSSING THE BIG BEND/ OVERSPREADS THE
MODIFIED WARM SECTOR OVER THE EDWARDS PLATEAU. STEEP MID-LEVEL LAPSE
RATES AND EFFECTIVE SHEAR OF 40-50 KT WILL PROVE FAVORABLE FOR LARGE
HAIL. WHILE A WEAKNESS IN THE LOW-LEVEL HODOGRAPH MAY PERSIST
BETWEEN 800-700 MB...VEERING MAY BE SUFFICIENT FOR A MARGINAL
TORNADO THREAT. HOWEVER...STRONGER LOW-LEVEL SLYS SHOULD REMAIN
CONFINED E OF THE I-35 CORRIDOR. IN ADDITION...CONVECTION-ALLOWING
MODELS LARGELY SUGGEST TSTMS WOULD QUICKLY TRANSITION INTO A CLUSTER
MODE WITH PROPAGATION TOWARDS THE NE INTO A LESS UNSTABLE AIR MASS.

..GRAMS.. 01/25/2012


ATTN...WFO...CRP...EWX...SJT...

LAT...LON 29730142 30260125 30810077 30960033 31049970 30999913
30719865 30639781 30529732 30279702 29789710 29389761
28699862 28439939 28380027 29250085 29730142
I think that Funso is going through an eyewall replacement cycle cuz on microwave animations you can see the inner one diminishing with a larger band closing in on the center Link
Looks interesting.... I'll be watching you... Police

New tech system has red light to mark re-crime suspects
Posted on January 24, 2012


What is the difference between Storm Relative Velocity, and Base Velocity?
Radiation dose spikes thoughout Tokyo area after yesterday’s quake (CHARTS)'

Published: January 24th, 2012 at 05:04 AM EDT |
By Enenews Admin

Follow up to Radiation dose spikes in Ibaraki northeast of Tokyo after last night’s 5 intensity quake -- Highest level measured since April — Double average

Graphed data created based on reports from [...] http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/ja/monitoring_by_p refecture/



SEE MORE GRAPHED DATA..

Link

All MEXT monitoring stations in and around the greater Tokyo area showed significant spikes in radiation. This includes Tokyo (Shinjuku), Saitama, Kaangawa, Chiba, and Ibaraki.

Yesterday’s M5.1 quake in Fukushima occurred at 8:45p, about 30 minutes after a M4.5 hit nearby. The charts at the bottom give a more precise idea of the timing of the radiation spikes measured throughout the Tokyo area
Quoting sunlinepr:
Radiation dose spikes thoughout Tokyo area after yesterday’s quake (CHARTS)'

Published: January 24th, 2012 at 05:04 AM EDT |
By Enenews Admin

Follow up to Radiation dose spikes in Ibaraki northeast of Tokyo after last night’s 5 intensity quake -- Highest level measured since April — Double average

Graphed data created based on reports from [...] http://radioactivity.mext.go.jp/ja/monitoring_by_p refecture/



SEE MORE GRAPHED DATA..

Link

All MEXT monitoring stations in and around the greater Tokyo area showed significant spikes in radiation. This includes Tokyo (Shinjuku), Saitama, Kaangawa, Chiba, and Ibaraki.

Yesterday’s M5.1 quake in Fukushima occurred at 8:45p, about 30 minutes after a M4.5 hit nearby. The charts at the bottom give a more precise idea of the timing of the radiation spikes measured throughout the Tokyo area


I personally am still waiting for Godzilla to show up and start stomping around.....
Published: January 23rd, 2012 at 05:15 PM EDT | Email Article
By Enenews Admin
207 comments
Tepco admits radiation levels from Fukushima increasing — Now releasing 70,000,000 Bq/hr — Reactor 3 leaking most

Title: TEPCO Notes Rise in Radioactive Leaks from Damaged Reactors
Source: Jiji Press
Date: Jan 23, 2012

[Tepco] on Monday reported an increase in radioactive materials leaking from damaged nuclear reactors [...]

The total amount of radioactive cesium that leaked from the containment vessels of the No. 1 to No. 3 reactors reached 70 million becquerels per hour, up 12 million becquerels from the December level [...]

It seems that radioactive dusts were stirred up because plant workers went inside reactor buildings and removed rubble [...]

Last month, the leaked amount was put at 10 million becquerels each for the No. 1 and No. 2 reactors and 40 million becquerels for the No. 3 reactor.

just out:

WTXS 22 PGTW 250230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WARNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WARNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI 241051Z JAN 12//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 241100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN A 205 NM RADIUS OF 13.8S 130.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 250130Z INDICATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 130.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I find it rather ironic about the two solar storms.Some of the largest occured in both 2003,and 05 which were both bad hurricane seasons for the U.S.Is their some coincodence?????


No offense, but I think you sometimes try too hard to find correlations where there are none.
SH082012 - Tropical Cyclone (>=96 kt) FUNSO


2km Storm Relative IR Imagery with BD Enhancement Curve


click image for Loop

Zoom is available



Get your tank full today before skyrocketing gas prices....

Quoting KoritheMan:


No offense, but I think you sometimes try too hard to find correlations where there are none.
Maybe my SARCASM flag was not high enough....
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe my SARCASM flag was not high enough....


Ah phooey.
Quoting sunlinepr:
Get your tank full today before skyrocketing gas prices....

Well if Iran does not give the US an excuse to attack it should blow over. But if we were to go to war with Iran we could take out there entire military without a single foot-soldier.
I was updating the wikipedia article on the 2011-12 southwest indian season and discovered through news sources that Dundo killed 10 people - 6 of them in South Africa. Coupled with the other 47 confirmed fatalities this takes it up to 52 so far, the deadliest season since 2007-08 when 122 were killed, mostly due to Cyclone Ivan.

The region had it quite easy the last 2-3 years but unfortunately it looks like this has come to an end
Quoting KoritheMan:


No offense, but I think you sometimes try too hard to find correlations where there are none.


I don't remember 2003 being a particularly bad season for the USA, aside from Isabel.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


I don't remember 2003 being a particularly bad season for the USA, aside from Isabel.


I was mainly responding to the 2005 part.
Quoting KoritheMan:


Ah phooey.
The reason I said such a thing was because people were posting doom and gloom articles over the Internet those years saying how the world has come to an end and this other non sense stuff.Just like that secret organization back in 03 said the world was going to explode with fire.Lol.
I dont really know what to do on here...
Not that interesting to track S hemisphere storms, i mean, its just really never interested me, just like watching ATL and EPAC. I mean i'm willing to watch the tropics other than those two basins, but only if it's and unordinary storm.
Just getting ancy and bored around here, think im gonna dig a tunnel to China for the remainder of the offseason... back probably in April or May Everyone. Been fun to check in after a month of silence, but think i'll hibernate some more.
Iran has quadruple the land area and triple the population of Iraq. Defeating the military is straightforward, occupying the country and establishing a decent government is something else.
Quoting my previous comment:
"just like watching ATL and EPAC."
I mean, i just like to watch ATL and EPAC, and sometimes WPAC, to be more specific.
Great......Now we're talking about issues with Iran and Obama.....Getting off for tonight now.
Quoting SPLbeater:


ignore koritheman, he is hot air


I think it's time for you to calm down.
Quoting caneswatch:


I think it's time for you to calm down.


Agreed. KoritheMan is a very good blogger.
Quoting WxGeekVA:


So Iran mines the strait and a U.S. warship is damaged, killing dozens of our brave sailors, and Obama won't respond????


he would have to think for awhile, lol
FYI, i have nothing against Obama. i just don't think, from what he's shown in relationship with Israel, that he wouldn't do as much as some other people in this country would do... :|
Quoting caneswatch:


I think it's time for you to calm down.


sorry but the ignore list is important when it comes to him because I have seen comments left that arent children appropriate..which is one of the community standards guide.
Quoting BaltimoreBrian:


Agreed. KoritheMan is a very good blogger.


He really is, definitely one of the best on here.
Quoting SPLbeater:


sorry but the ignore list is important when it comes to him because I have seen comments left that arent children appropriate..which is one of the community standards guide.


And you don't violate them either?
Jumped on to see if there is any discussion about the rains in Texas and Oklahoma and - - well. I'm outta here.
Looks like the drought is almost over for North Texas, they have had more rain the past 2 months than South Central Texas has received in a year, nothing but flood warnings and watches up there. I am happy for them but I wish they would share. :)
The EVENT.... is now in start mode


2-5 inches around the Dallas/Fort Worth area, and more to come

High temp is now reached at this precise time of 69 and looks to climb tonight, dewpoint at 68 and climbing as well.

Local met on local news mentioned it shouldn't be as bad as the Jan. 9th event, and that is possible, but shouldn't have been mentioned....all parameters point to heavy rain event and is barreling towards SE TX.
Quoting SPLbeater:


ignore koritheman, he is hot air


I can't help it because I'm popular. :/




SEL3

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 13
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1005 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS

EFFECTIVE THIS TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY MORNING FROM 1005 PM
UNTIL 500 AM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 2 INCHES IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND
GUSTS TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE
AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 85 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 25 MILES NORTHWEST OF AUSTIN
TEXAS TO 35 MILES WEST SOUTHWEST OF LAREDO TEXAS. FOR A COMPLETE
DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH OUTLINE UPDATE
(WOUS64 KWNS WOU3).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

DISCUSSION...ASCENT IN ADVANCE OF A MIDLEVEL LOW OVER FAR W TX WILL
SPREAD EWD OVERNIGHT FROM THE RIO GRANDE TO S CENTRAL TX. A
MOIST/UNSTABLE AIR MASS IS ALREADY IN PLACE ACROSS S TX...AND THE
CAP WILL WEAKEN SUFFICIENTLY TO SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT
FROM THE LAREDO AREA NEWD. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS
RELATIVELY STRONG ALONG THE CORRIDOR OF A 40 KT LLJ /EFFECTIVE SRH
AOA 300 M2 PER S2/...WITH DEEP-LAYER SHEAR IN THE RANGE FAVORABLE
FOR SUPERCELLS. A TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE INITIAL
/MORE DISCRETE/ STORMS EXPECTED TO FORM IN THE NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS
NEAR THE RIO GRANDE...ALONG WITH LARGE HAIL. THE DAMAGING WIND RISK
WILL INCREASE SOME LATER TONIGHT AS STORMS EVOLVE INTO A LARGER
LINEAR MCS AND MOVE EWD.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 2 INCHES. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE
WIND GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO
500. MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 23030.

Just for fun, which name(s) do you guys think will be particularly destructive or noteworthy in the Atlantic this year? I pick Gordon and Isaac, because what "I" storm isn't notable in some way?
Quoting yqt1001:


Iran has a doctrine of "no first strike". I don't see why they would be stupid enough to attack the US in the first place. A war with Iran probably won't happen for years, and by then Iran could be a lot stronger than it is now.

Look at it like China. In 2000, the US was nearly guaranteed to win in a war against China. Now it is a (very bloody) stalemate.


No, we were never guaranteed to win a war against China. The only method that would grant us a hollow victory would be total war and nuking the place. That isn't winning a war. That's just not losing.

Also, the whole idea is just plain ludicrous. China going to war with us (or vice versa) is like you declaring war on your kidneys. If China wanted to hurt the US, war is by far the worse choice in it's arsenal. All they'd have to do is trade embargo the US.

It's economical suicide no matter how you look at it. And that is just the start of the negative repercussions.

It's pointless to talk about who can kick who's butt, without a measured study of all the consequences. However, I don't think we've quite learned that lesson yet judging by all the hawks who are just itching for a war.
Looks like the first (and hopefully the last) tornado warning of the night.

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE AUSTIN/SAN ANTONIO TX
1138 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

TXC137-250545-
/O.CON.KEWX.TO.W.0001.000000T0000Z-120125T0545Z/
EDWARDS TX-
1138 PM CST TUE JAN 24 2012

...A TORNADO WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1145 PM CST FOR CENTRAL
EDWARDS COUNTY...

AT 1133 PM CST...NWS METEOROLOGISTS CONTINUED TO DETECT A TORNADO.
THIS TORNADO WAS LOCATED OVER NORTH CENTRAL EDWARDS COUNTY...OR 14
MILES NORTHWEST OF ROCKSPRINGS...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

IF YOU ARE IN A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...GET OUT AND GO TO A STURDY
SHELTER. IF NO SHELTER IS AVAILABLE...LIE FLAT IN THE NEAREST DITCH
OR OTHER LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.

A TORNADO WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 500 AM CST WEDNESDAY MORNING
FOR SOUTH CENTRAL TEXAS.

&&

LAT...LON 3007 10037 3012 10048 3019 10042 3011 10026
TIME...MOT...LOC 0538Z 215DEG 35KT 3018 10036

$$
Quoting washingtonian115:
Maybe my SARCASM flag was not high enough....
lol
Hey Tom, how's life bro?
0530 12 WNW ROCKSPRINGS EDWARDS TX 3008 10040 POSSIBLE TORNADO WEST OF ROCKSPRINGS NEAR STATE ROAD 55. (EWX)
Quoting KoritheMan:
Hey Tom, how's life bro?
pretty good right now.

wasn't too great last week, since I was a little upset with a ladyfriend of mine, but this week is going a lot better. Haven't been on the blog much though, so I haven't been posting much and I haven't had the time to even put up my picture hah.

How are things going on your end?
Quoting TomTaylor:
pretty good right now.

wasn't too great last week, since I was a little upset with a ladyfriend of mine, but this week is going a lot better. Haven't been on the blog much though, so I haven't been posting much and I haven't had the time to even put up my picture hah.

How are things going on your end?


Yikes. That's never fun. Glad to see it all worked out.

Same old **** on my end, though at this point I'm quite used to working, so it isn't as cumbersome when I have to come in.

Aside from that, I'm strongly anticipating the 2012 Atlantic hurricane season as always, and wondering very much how I'm going to successfully incorporate daily tropical summaries with weekday exercises and work.
Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center
Tropical Cyclone Bulletin
TROPICAL LOW 11U
3:00 PM WST January 25 2012
================================

At 2:00 PM WST, Tropical Low (994 hPa) located at 15.9S 108.4E or 900 km northwest of Exmouth has 10 minute sustained winds of 30 knots with gusts of 45 knots. The low is reported as moving west at 7 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T2.5/2.5/D1.0/24 HRS

Forecast and Intensity:
======================

12 HRS: 16.3S 108.3E - 40 knots (CAT 1)
24 HRS: 17.0S 108.5E - 50 knots (CAT 2)
48 HRS: 18.7S 109.5E - 60 knots (CAT 2)
72 HRS: 20.0S 110.4E - 70 knots (CAT 3)

Additional Information
========================

The low level circulation centre is clearly evident on the eastern edge of the deep convection. A shear pattern analysis gives a DT of 3.0. Curvature is slowly improving and a wrap of 0.4 was obtained over several visible images. Trend is assessed as D- giving a MET of 2.0. PAT is assessed as 2.5 and FT is set to 2.5. Partial ASCAT pass at 0155Z suggests 25-30 knots on the western side under deep convection, with monsoon flow removed to the north.

The system is likely to slow and begin to move south or southeastwards overnight as the subtropical ridge to the south erodes. The extratropical transition of ex-TC Ethel and the vigorous monsoon trough, add some uncertainty to the development and movement of the system however, it appears likely the system will move in a southerly or south southeasterly direction over the next 72 hours, closer to northwest cape, whilst intensifying steadily. Relatively shallow sea surface temperature may limit the intensity of this system, particularly if it becomes slow moving over waters south of 20.0S.

Strong monsoonal flow is likely to contribute to a broad area of abnormally high significant wave heights affecting Christmas Island, the west Kimberley, and adjacent Pilbara coasts. The strong monsoon flow may also produce heavy rainfall and strong winds on the coast well to the east of the current low, extending into the Kimberley.

The next tropical cyclone bulletin/advisory from Perth Tropical Cyclone Warning Center will be issued at around 13:30 PM UTC..
Seychelles Meteorological Services
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #26
CYCLONE TROPICAL FUNSO (08-20112012)
10:00 AM RET January 25 2012
=======================================

At 6:00 AM UTC, Tropical Cyclone Funso (960 hPa) located at 22.6S 38.7E has 10 minute sustained winds of 80 knots with gusts of 95 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving southeast at 3 knots

Dvorak Intensity: T4.5/5.0/W0.5/6 HRS

Hurricane Force Winds
=====================
25 NM radius from the center

Storm Force Winds
=================
50 NM radius from the center

Gale Force Winds
=================
100 NM radius from the center, extending up to 120 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Near Gale Force Winds
====================
120 NM radius from the center, extending up to 160 NM in the eastern semi-circle

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

12 HRS: 23.2S 38.7E - 80 knots (Cyclone Tropical)
24 HRS: 23.6S 38.9E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
48 HRS: 25.0S 39.1E - 90 knots (Cyclone Tropical Intense)
72 HRS: 26.9S 39.9E - 60 knots (Forte Tempête Tropicale)

Additional Information
======================

System achieved a first ye wall replacement cycle during last night (cf. TRMM at 22.05 PM UTC with the central core disappearing and formation of a 25 NM diameter eye) According to the last satellite multispectral and mw pictures, the radius of maximum winds is narrowing again. TRMM picture at 03.36z suggests that the system is actually undergoing a second eye wall replacement cycle. Consequently system should weaken again during the next few hours and the actual short range intensity forecast takes it in account.

System is tracking globally south southwestwards under the steering influence of a mid-latitude trough transiting in the south and the mid-level ridge existing in its east. The polar trough is expected to achieve to evacuate rapidly. Then, under the only steering influence of the aforementioned ridge, system is expected to shift slowly south southeastwards until day 2. Over this forecast track, environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable under the upper level ridge and sustained by a building second outflow channel poleward this Wednesday 25. This environmental conditions are expected to remain favorable up to friday 27. When the second eyewall replacement cycle will be complete, Funso should start a new intensifying phase.

On and after 60 hours, Funso is expected to accelerate south southeastwards in relationship with a deep trough transiting in the mid-latitude. At this range, system will undergoing both cooler sea surface temperature and an strengthening westerly vertical wind shear in the same time. Funso should weaken and then begin its extra-tropical transition. Available numerical weather prediction models are now in good agreement for this scenario.

According to the current forecast track, Funso is slowly tracking away from Europa Island. Strong winds gusting at about 100/110 km/h should occur today and the next night.

The next tropical cyclone advisory from Seychelles Meteorological Service on TC FUNSO will be issued at 12:30 PM UTC..
Darwin Tropical Warning Center
=================================

At 3:30 pm CST a Tropical Low [994 hPa] was located over land near 14.5S 130.8E, approximately 160 km west of Katherine moving southeast at 7 knots.

The low is expected to continue moving southeast across the northern territory during the next few days.
Is Funso strengthening?
Kinda looks like it.
Quoting Xyrus2000:


Military power means nothing if you can't use it efficiently and effectively. If you're willing to toss morals aside and have no qualms about slaughtering millions of civilians, then sure, our military could mow down anyone by repaving their country with slightly radioactive glass. But that's not the point.

War is not a game of who's got the biggest military. Hell, war isn't even the main event. War is the precursor to a world of pain and suffering to all those who want nothing to do with it. After the smoke clears you've got a big pile physical, social, political, and psychological wreckage you have to deal with. Millions of people without clean food or water. Everything from power vacuums to religious blood feuds can pop up once the power structure is gone. And that's not even getting into the repercussion of the local and international community.

2) We won't strike first, but I can say with 95% confidence that if a single American is killed by some sort of Iranian aggression, we will retaliate with swift and unstoppable force.


Again, you miss the point. We've had such an "unstoppable force" for several decades, and yet our conflicts last for years, causing massive casualties and costing billions to trillions of dollars.

3) I don't think that if Iran is occupied, that there will be as much of an issue with stabilizing as Iraq, largely because Iran has a much more homogenous population with less sectarian divisions within the country.


Huh? We are talking about Iran right?

Even without taking Iran's history and geopolitical makeup into account, there is still our "history" with Iran. There's a lot of people in that country who remember what we did (read up on the Shah). We really really have not been nice to that country, and there is still a lot of bad blood there.

There will be plenty of problems on this front.

4) We may not even have to attack, I think that these sanctions will work and that there will be a popular uprising inside Iran that will be secretly helped by Mossad and the C.I.A., which could bring down the Islamist government and install a more moderate democracy.


Yeah, I can't see how that could possibly fail.

Do you know how many problems we've made for ourselves by fomenting uprisings in the past? You make it sound so simple, yet history paints a starkly different picture.

5)Nobody likes Iran (except China). So there would be less of an issue with world opposition to an intervention there.


I guess that just gives us a blank check to carpet bomb some brown people? Again?

That is an extremely narrow and simplistic view of a complex social and political issue. The problem isn't Iran. The problem is the government. Going in guns blazing and bombs dropping is gives that government exactly what they want; a true reason and scapegoat. Despite the oppression, the last thing the people of that country want is bunker busters blowing holes in their lives.

6) The views and points expressed above are soley the opinions of WxGeekVA, and are not endorsed or sponsored by anyone else.


Indeed.

War is not some RTS game where having the best military wins. In case you've missed the past decade, war is extremely complex that can quite easily go from "6 months" to six years, even when fighting a broken down de-militarized country beaten to death by sanctions.


That is a convincing argument. +10000000
GOOD MORNING FOLKS, I thought i was in the wrong blog here this morning, reading the posts I thought i was in a politics blog! come on folks, plenty of nasty or nice weather out there to talk about..anyway have a great day and a safe one..supposed to be 79 here today..Great
Contrary to all the testosterone thrown around the blog last evening, there will be no war with Iran. Because:

1) We can't afford it. The entire industrialized world is teetering on recession and the last thing it needs is higher oil prices, almost a guarantee from said war.

2) A war would spur Iran to build the exact weapons they are now saying they aren't building and, which by the way, we have no proof they are building.

3) A war would not be sanctioned by China which would be the big winner. China would be the one country with the means to help re-build Iran and it would probably trade that capacity for all of Iran's oil it needed.

4) No one will break out the nukes. The ramifications are just too large. See the first video at:

Link

before making foolish statements about nuclear war.

5) Iran has not started a war in over a century and will not now.

Don't fret or salivate about a possible war with Iran. It ain't gonna happen.

Incidentally, the sanctions we are promoting so hard now will probably just insure China gets the bulk of Iran's oil as I doubt they'll ever agree to them. Will we stop doing business with China?? If not, we're just being dumb, again.

All these opinions are only those of Percylives. He has been wrong before.
hows the drought in texas?
Now,,, This is interesting....
BOM says tropical low SW of Darwin will not become a TC, yet the JTWC says otherwise.

Australian Government Bureau of Meteorology
Northern Territory
Darwin Regional Forecasting Centre

Tropical Cyclone 3 day Outlook for Northern Region, including the Gulf of
Carpentaria

Issued by the BUREAU OF METEOROLOGY, DARWIN
at 2:15 pm CST Wednesday 25 January 2012

Valid until the end of Saturday.

Existing Cyclones in the Northern Region and Gulf of Carpentaria:
Nil.

Potential Cyclones:
An active monsoon trough is located over the Top End. A Tropical Low, 995 hPa,
was located near 13.9S 130.5E at 12:30pm CST on 25 January, about 65 km south
southeast of Daly River Mouth and moving southeast at 8 km/h. The low will
continue moving to the southeast and remain over land.

Likelihood of a tropical cyclone being in the Northern region on:
Thursday: Very Low.
Friday: Very Low.
Saturday: Very Low.


Squally monsoonal winds and heavy rain is expected over the Darwin-Daly, Arnhem,
northern Victoria River and Roper-McArthur Districts. Refer to the latest Severe
Weather Warning.

NOTE: The likelihood is an estimate of the chance of each system being a
tropical cyclone in the Region for each day...
Very low: less than 5%, Low: 5% to 20%, Moderate: 20% to 50%, High: Over 50%


JTWC



WTXS22 PGTW 250230
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WARCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/241051Z JAN 12//
AMPN/REF A IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTXS21 PGTW 241100)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 205 NM RADIUS OF 13.8S 130.1E WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CY-
CLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AND RADAR DATA AT 250130Z INDI-
CATE THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 130.0E. THE
SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.8S
131.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.0S 130.0E, APPROXIMATELY 100 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF DARWIN, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS FLARING DEEP CONVECTION JUST TO THE NORTH OF A LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS CURRENTLY LOCATED OVERLAND.
RECENT 512KM COMPOSITE RADAR ANIMATION FROM WYNDHAM SHOWS A LARGE
CYCLONICALLY TURNING RAINBAND NORTH OF THE LLCC WITH THINNER RETURN
FLOW RAINBANDS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST. THE LATEST SURFACE
OBSERVATIONS FROM DARWIN INDICATE SUSTAINED WINDS FROM 25-30 KNOTS.
HOWEVER, SURFACE OBSERVATIONS FROM DOUGLAS RIVER (EAST OF THE LLCC)
SHOW WINDS FROM 05-10 KNOTS AND WINDS FROM WADEYE (CLOSEST TO THE
LLCC) INDICATE 10-15 KNOTS. AVERAGE PRESSURES FROM ALL OF THESE
STATIONS INDICATE 996 MB. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS DEPICTS A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH APPROXIMATELY 20 KNOTS OF VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND
GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT AS THE LLCC RESIDES SLIGHTLY EQUATORWARD OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. ALL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE LLCC
SHOULD BE PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST AS A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE BUILDS NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. HOWEVER, OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS
THE LLCC HAS TRACKED SOUTHWEST AND IS APPROXIMATELY 15NM FROM
EMERGING OVER THE JOSEPH BONAPARTE GULF WHERE SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE EXTREMELY WARM AT 30-32 DEGREES CELSIUS. IT MAY
TAKE SOME TIME FOR THE RIDGE TO BUILD TO THE NORTH SUFFICIENTLY TO
PUSH THE LLCC BACK OVERLAND AND IN THAT TIME THE LLCC COULD FEED OFF
THE WARM OCEAN WATERS AND BRIEFLY MEET WARNING CRITERIA (35 KNOTS).
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS.
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. BASED ON
THE PROXIMITY TO WATER, GOOD DIVERGENCE ALOFT, AND PROPENSITY FOR
CIRCULATIONS TO QUICKLY DEVELOP IN THIS REGION, THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
260230Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 16.8S 111.9E.//
NNNN

Killeen, TX, NEXRAD radar has several tornado signatures SE of Austin at this time.
Good Morning I am South of Austin about 12 to 15 miles and it is Flooded out here big time for first time since Sept 2010 when 2 tropical systems came thru. 2 ponds behind my backyard are way out of their banks, I must say it is an awesome sight for me. I do know alot of roads in Austin are flooded and closed but this is exactly what we needed, not sure how much rain the Lake areas received but I am flooded in Hays County.
There is a likely tornado on the ground where the big, green triangle is located. Sometimes on intense lines like this, you can get several spin-up tornadoes, which is what is going on right now.


(Click to enlarge)
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
There is a likely tornado on the ground where the big, green triangle is located. Sometimes on intense lines like this, you can get several spin-up tornadoes, which is what is going on right now.


(Click to enlarge)

That's better.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

643 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...



* UNTIL 715 AM CST



* AT 637 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM... MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THERE IS A SECOND POSSIBLE TORNADO LOCATED 5 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF CALDWELL.



* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

SOMERVILLE AND CALDWELL.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR

A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE

BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.



IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM

IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST

RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR

HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST FOR THE WARNED AREA.



&&
4.5 inches at my house just southeast of Buda which is not too far South of Austin Texas. Cedar Creek east of me about 15 miles received over 7 inches and starflight is rescuing people from their flooded homes.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

That's better.


BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED

TORNADO WARNING

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX

643 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012



THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LEAGUE CITY HAS ISSUED A



* TORNADO WARNING FOR...

BURLESON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...

NORTHWESTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY IN SOUTHEAST TEXAS...



* UNTIL 715 AM CST



* AT 637 AM CST...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING A TORNADO. THIS TORNADO

WAS LOCATED 11 MILES WEST OF LAKE SOMERVILLE DAM... MOVING

NORTHEAST AT 50 MPH. THERE IS A SECOND POSSIBLE TORNADO LOCATED 5 MILES

SOUTHWEST OF CALDWELL.



* LOCATIONS IN THE TORNADO WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO

SOMERVILLE AND CALDWELL.



PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...



THE SAFEST PLACE TO BE DURING A TORNADO IS IN THE INTERIOR HALLWAY OR

A ROOM SUCH AS A CLOSET ON THE LOWEST LEVEL OF A STURDY BUILDING. USE

BLANKETS OR PILLOWS TO COVER YOUR BODY AND ALWAYS STAY AWAY FROM

WINDOWS.



IF YOU ARE INSIDE A MOBILE HOME OR VEHICLE...EVACUATE THEM

IMMEDIATELY AND SEEK SHELTER INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING. AS A LAST

RESORT...SEEK SHELTER IN A CULVERT...DITCH OR LOW SPOT AND COVER YOUR

HEAD WITH YOUR HANDS.



A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1100 AM CST FOR THE WARNED AREA.



&&
Quoting LargoFl:
gee so early in the morning, starting already, pls take heed and stay safe out there
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
4.5 inches at my house just southeast of Buda which is not too far South of Austin Texas. Cedar Creek east of me about 15 miles received over 7 inches and starflight is rescuing people from their flooded homes.
It's good to see the rain, of course--but too bad it has to come all at once where it'll mostly wash out to the Gulf. A long, stead rain--say, five inches over fives days--would be a huge help.
Quoting ncgnto25:
With Iran sabre-rattling, our government spending us into oblivion and the incredible polarization of our parties to the point they cannot agree on anything, have we ever been weaker? Iran is not as stupid as a lot of you think. Did anyone notice that they just had another request to raise the debt ceiling another 1.4 Trillion? What happened to the 2.4 Trillion they raised it a few months ago amid all that hoopla? That was less than 6 months ago. Does that mean we are really facing a deficit of nearly 5 Trillion here? The math adds up. I really believe nobody even knows how big it is. Obama is gutting the military budget as we speak, with a 500B chopping in place. Anybody still believe we don't need the Keystone pipeline, plus other similar projects, for the measure of self sufficiency it provides against actions like Iran is contemplating? Anybody still believe we don't need to vote out our whole Congress-lock stock and barrel-after the lies put out last night? There truly is little or no recovery going on. Both sides are to blame. The 2 party system has to go. Period. I say Vote for Gary Johnson-Libertarian-and if you think I am kidding, look him up. 2 Term Governor of New Mexico in a highly Democratic state as a Republican and did a fabulous job-leaving us with new roads all over the state and a surplus budget that it took Bill Richardson the better part of 8 years to mess up. I have talked to Democrats and Republicans alike in this state who would vote for him in a heartbeat. We need to look at an alternative to what is happening in our country politically.
Obama is "gutting the military budget"? Hardly; he's barely suggested snipping a few pieces around the edges. Even with the proposed cuts, our defense budget would still be larger than that of the next handful of countries combined. Not exactly what I'd call "gutting".

The Keystone pipeline provides no self-sufficiency; it merely prolongs the inevitable forced switch to alternate forms of energy, and does so while enriching only Big Oil, thoroughly destroying huge swaths of Canadian wilderness, and pumping the air full of more carbon than just about any other form of oil extraction does. No, thanks.

Johnson has some great ideas--as most politicians do--but overall he's just another no-taxes, no corporate regulations, every-man-to-himself politician who couldn't make it to the top of his original ticket because of his unwillingness to intrude into people's private lives (such as his strong and open belief in the medicinal properties of THC).

The idea of voting out "our whole Congress-lock stock and barrel" certainly has its populist appeal. But the airplane, while flying wobbly at the moment, isn't in imminent danger of crashing; yanking the licensed pilot from the cockpit and replacing him with a someone picked at random from coach just doesn't seem like a great strategy. ;-)
EWRC is (clearly) over.

Quoting bohonkweatherman:
4.5 inches at my house just southeast of Buda which is not too far South of Austin Texas. Cedar Creek east of me about 15 miles received over 7 inches and starflight is rescuing people from their flooded homes.
3.5 and still raining in Northwest Austin.

Bull Creek was at bankful when I crossed it this morning and all low water crossings are closed.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Good Morning I am South of Austin about 12 to 15 miles and it is Flooded out here big time for first time since Sept 2010 when 2 tropical systems came thru. 2 ponds behind my backyard are way out of their banks, I must say it is an awesome sight for me. I do know alot of roads in Austin are flooded and closed but this is exactly what we needed, not sure how much rain the Lake areas received but I am flooded in Hays County.


Told you that it would come!
The soil has already been soaked with light to moderate rains, this flooding is needed to help bring up lake levels and reservoirs, so this runoff is EXACTLY what is needed.
Quoting yqt1001:
EWRC is (clearly) over.



Funso has been an interesting storm, to say the least.
For what it's worth, there have been exactly 100 new record daily low temperature readings so far this month (an average of 4.17 per day)--and a pretty remarkable 2,061 new record daily highs (85.87 per day). And there's still not much relief in sight; the following maps from HAMweather show low temperature anomalies (not actual temps) forecast for the next five days across the continental U.S. It looks as though things get slightly cooler toward Saturday, then start warming again on Sunday.:

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm

Warm
Sure hoping the development ahead of the line and stuff developing over the Gulf all merge into one big bad blob of heavy rain over SE TX. Need those heavy rains
Quoting RitaEvac:


Told you that it would come!
Areas southeast of Buda in Caldwell county received at least 9 inches of rain, several schools are closed today. This rain was just around here, the Lake areas northwest of Austin received very little rain with totals around half an inch.
Quoting bohonkweatherman:
Areas southeast of Buda in Caldwell county received at least 9 inches of rain, several schools are closed today. This rain was just around here, the Lake areas northwest of Austin received very little rain with totals around half an inch.


Yea, those areas NW of Austin received more rains in the past though, when you were missing out, so nature is balancing it out
Record daily maximum rainfall set at Austin Bergstrom...

A record rainfall of 5.66 inches was set at Austin Bergstrom
this morning. This breaks the old record of 0.99 inches
set in 1973.



San Antonio, Bexar County.

Flash flood, reported by dept of highways.


Multiple streets closed due to flooding in San Antonio
via public works website.


Quoting RitaEvac:


Yea, those areas NW of Austin received more rains in the past though, when you were missing out, so nature is balancing it out
Doesn't really help Lake Travis though. That lake is a drinking water source for many and frighteningly low.
Quoting yqt1001:
EWRC is (clearly) over.




Das a purty cyclone...120 knots from JTWC, probably the new peak lol
Tornado watch just extended E to include SE TX and SW/W LA until 5 PM.  Oy.


Anthony
Quoting islander101010:
hows the drought in texas?


6 days old..updated tomorrow

Link


SEL5

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TORNADO WATCH NUMBER 15
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
755 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

THE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A
TORNADO WATCH FOR PORTIONS OF

WESTERN AND SOUTHERN LOUISIANA
SOUTHEAST TEXAS
COASTAL WATERS

EFFECTIVE THIS WEDNESDAY MORNING AND AFTERNOON FROM 755 AM UNTIL
300 PM CST.

TORNADOES...HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER...THUNDERSTORM WIND GUSTS
TO 70 MPH...AND DANGEROUS LIGHTNING ARE POSSIBLE IN THESE AREAS.

THE TORNADO WATCH AREA IS APPROXIMATELY ALONG AND 95 STATUTE
MILES EAST AND WEST OF A LINE FROM 30 MILES NORTH OF NATCHITOCHES
LOUISIANA TO 30 MILES SOUTH SOUTHWEST OF PORT ARTHUR TEXAS. FOR
A COMPLETE DEPICTION OF THE WATCH SEE THE ASSOCIATED WATCH
OUTLINE UPDATE (WOUS64 KWNS WOU5).

REMEMBER...A TORNADO WATCH MEANS CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR
TORNADOES AND SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN AND CLOSE TO THE WATCH
AREA. PERSONS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD BE ON THE LOOKOUT FOR
THREATENING WEATHER CONDITIONS AND LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS
AND POSSIBLE WARNINGS.

OTHER WATCH INFORMATION...CONTINUE...WW 14...

DISCUSSION...NRN PARTS OF E TX SQLN EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ENEWD INTO
RECOVERING BOUNDARY LAYER ENVIRONMENT NEAR DIFFUSE WNW-ESE WARM
FRONT NOW EXTENDING FROM N OF LUFKIN TX TO NEAR BATON ROUGE LA.
AREA VWP DATA SHOW 50+ KT SSWLY LLJ SHIFTING EWD IN TANDEM WITH
SQLN...ENHANCING LOW LVL SHEAR AND STRENGTHENING LOW LVL MOISTURE
TRANSPORT. WHILE MID LVL LAPSE RATES WILL REMAIN WEAK...COMBINATION
OF INCREASING LOW LVL MOISTURE/SHEAR AND MODEST SFC HEATING MAY
YIELD AN ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LEWPS WITH LOCALLY DMGG WIND AND
ISOLD TORNADOES. OTHER STORMS MAY ARISE LATER THIS MORNING OR EARLY
THIS AFTN WITHIN CONFLUENCE BAND NOW OVER THE HOUSTON AREA AHEAD OF
SQLN. ANY SUSTAINED STORMS FORMING WITH THIS ACTIVITY MAY POSE A
TORNADO THREAT LATER TODAY OVER SW LA.

AVIATION...TORNADOES AND A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WITH HAIL
SURFACE AND ALOFT TO 1 INCH. EXTREME TURBULENCE AND SURFACE WIND
GUSTS TO 60 KNOTS. A FEW CUMULONIMBI WITH MAXIMUM TOPS TO 500.
MEAN STORM MOTION VECTOR 21035.


...CORFIDI
Seeing some good patches of blue sky with lots of cloud debris around Galveston county, if sun comes out...watch out for severe weather. Sun shining in Texas City now.
Cyclone Funso 140000Z

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 927.2mb/ 122.2kt

Raw T# 6.3
Adj T# 6.4
Final T# 6.4

Scene Type: EYE
Tropical Cyclone Nine(09S)
Quoting RitaEvac:
Sure hoping the development ahead of the line and stuff developing over the Gulf all merge into one big bad blob of heavy rain over SE TX. Need those heavy rains


Couldn't have said that any better. Looks like it may just end up doing that. We really need the line to slow down a little bit. I can deal with the floods as long as it brings the reservoirs and bayous back to closer to normal levels.
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


Couldn't have said that any better. Looks like it may just end up doing that. We really need the line to slow down a little bit. I can deal with the floods as long as it brings the reservoirs and bayous back to closer to normal levels.


Hopefully it'll train and widen up a bit (the line)

Sun is out and winds are howling
Quoting RitaEvac:


Hopefully it'll train and widen up a bit (the line)


It is looking like it is trying too based of Radar imagery. Hard to say though once it gets into the metro area. There is a lot of unstable air ahead of the squall line so we will see!
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


It is looking like it is trying too based of Radar imagery. Hard to say though once it gets into the metro area. There is a lot of unstable air ahead of the squall line so we will see!


Sun is out down here, which is a surprise to me
Getting a major influx east of Corpus over the gulf streaming right ahead of the main line, this could all merge into one big bad blob if timing is right



Quoting RitaEvac:


Sun is out down here, which is a surprise to me


Yea I am just south of downtown right now and there are plenty of breaks in the clouds with the sun peaking through every so often. It will be quite an interesting morning.
Earlier this morning winds were gusting 45-50mph in Houston and near town, news was showing video of transformers blowing, and tens of thousands without power, and that was just inflow ahead of the weather
You guys over in east Texas..... Would you please stop hogging all the rain and send some of it over to here in west Texas!! Still not a drop in sight. :-(
Warnings continue to verify with numerous reports of wind damage across the region. Appears Grimes County was hit pretty hard with law enforcement reporting widespread wind damage to homes, trees and power lines across much of the county. Tire shop on HWY 36 in Burleson County was completely destroyed and numerous trees and power lines down over Montgomery County.

Radar continues to show frequent tornado signatures spinning up very quickly along the leading edge of the squall line over Montgomery and Walker counties. Watching growing cells closely over Colorado and southern Austin/Waller counties as these may go tornadic shortly. Cell motions of 35-50mph and leading to very short lead times. Additionally very low cloud bases and rain wrap nature of the event is making seeing any kind of funnel cloud or tornado almost impossible.

Threat will be shifting to the US 59 corridor over the next 1-3 hours.

Rainfall:

Cells over Colorado, Austin, and Waller counties have been showing decent cell merging and training over the past few hours, but it is clear that the entire line is slowing. Given tremendous Gulf moisture advection in progress with moisture levels near historical maximum for this time of year it will not take long to get into problems with hourly rainfall rates approaching 2.5-3 inches under the stronger cells. Urban flooding of street and low lying areas appears likely as this line sags into the more populated US 59 corridor.

Quoting ozprof:
You guys over in east Texas..... Would you please stop hogging all the rain and send some of it over to here in west Texas!! Still not a drop in sight. :-(
No! We haven't seen it in awhile and need time to get reacquainted.
000
FXUS64 KHGX 251601
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAKING PROGRESS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 11 AM. NORTHERN HALF OF THE LINE (ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-10) IS
MOVING FASTER THAN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LINE. WE WILL PROBABLY
BE ISSUING ADDITIONAL FLOOD ADVISORIES TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THIS STORM COMPLEX...AND THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

UPDATED THE MORNING FORECAST WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EAST AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WEST. 42
Quoting RitaEvac:
Warnings continue to verify with numerous reports of wind damage across the region. Appears Grimes County was hit pretty hard with law enforcement reporting widespread wind damage to homes, trees and power lines across much of the county. Tire shop on HWY 36 in Burleson County was completely destroyed and numerous trees and power lines down over Montgomery County.

Radar continues to show frequent tornado signatures spinning up very quickly along the leading edge of the squall line over Montgomery and Walker counties. Watching growing cells closely over Colorado and southern Austin/Waller counties as these may go tornadic shortly. Cell motions of 35-50mph and leading to very short lead times. Additionally very low cloud bases and rain wrap nature of the event is making seeing any kind of funnel cloud or tornado almost impossible.

Threat will be shifting to the US 59 corridor over the next 1-3 hours.

Rainfall:

Cells over Colorado, Austin, and Waller counties have been showing decent cell merging and training over the past few hours, but it is clear that the entire line is slowing. Given tremendous Gulf moisture advection in progress with moisture levels near historical maximum for this time of year it will not take long to get into problems with hourly rainfall rates approaching 2.5-3 inches under the stronger cells. Urban flooding of street and low lying areas appears likely as this line sags into the more populated US 59 corridor.



The southern line of this system is definitely slowing down and pulling in mass amounts of moisture from the Gulf. We may have a pretty significant flooding situation south of the city throughout this afternoon.

TURN AROUND - DON'T DROWN
Quoting DavidHOUTX:
000
FXUS64 KHGX 251601
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1001 AM CST WED JAN 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
LINE OF STRONG/SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS MAKING PROGRESS MOVING EASTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHEAST TEXAS THIS MORNING WITH A TORNADO WATCH IN EFFECT
UNTIL 11 AM. NORTHERN HALF OF THE LINE (ROUGHLY NORTH OF I-10) IS
MOVING FASTER THAN THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE LINE. WE WILL PROBABLY
BE ISSUING ADDITIONAL FLOOD ADVISORIES TO COVER THE POTENTIAL FOR
WIDESPREAD 1 TO 3 INCH RAINFALL TOTALS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF
THIS STORM COMPLEX...AND THIS AREA WILL ALSO BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE STORM DEVELOPMENT. HIGHER RAINFALL TOTALS
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

UPDATED THE MORNING FORECAST WITH HIGHER RAIN CHANCES EAST AND COOLER
TEMPERATURES WEST. 42


Activity over the gulf is merging with main line, could see repeat of Jan 9th event
0932 AM FLASH FLOOD HALTOM CITY 32.80N 97.27W
01/25/2012 TARRANT TX BROADCAST MEDIA

HIGH WATER RESCUES AT 121 AND HANDLEY EDERVILLE ROAD IN
HALTOM CITY


0903 AM FLASH FLOOD HALTOM CITY 32.80N 97.27W
01/25/2012 TARRANT TX BROADCAST MEDIA

HIGH WATER RESCUES IN HALTOM CITY. AIRPORT FREEWAY AND
MIDWAY ROAD.


0833 AM FLASH FLOOD IRVING 32.82N 96.92W
01/25/2012 DALLAS TX LAW ENFORCEMENT

WATER RESCUE OF 1 PERSON ON TOP OF A CAR IN A CREEK NEAR
S. STORY RD AND RUBY ST. RESCUE BOAT ENROUTE.


0800 AM FLOOD JEWETT 31.37N 96.15W
01/25/2012 LEON TX TRAINED SPOTTER

CITY STREETS UNDER WATER.


$$
Quoting RitaEvac:


Activity over the gulf is merging with main line, could see repeat of Jan 9th event


That is my thinking as well. We may be in for a wash out. At least we are starting this year off well in regards to the rain category. Winter has sure skipped us so far this year.
Metal light poles in parking lot are swaying in the wind, winds are fueling into this system with copious amounts of gulf moisture
Quoting DavidHOUTX:


That is my thinking as well. We may be in for a wash out. At least we are starting this year off well in regards to the rain category. Winter has sure skipped us so far this year.


Hell with winter, bring the rain
If we don't get our reservoirs and lakes up before summer, we are dead where we stand. It HAS to flood and that's what it's gonna take
I've been invited to a conference on the impact of cold climate in Russian history and the Russian psyche. Obviously I can't go but I have been to a couple conferences like this and they are fun.

Here is the web site for the conference.
Most rain i found around here where it flooded was in Uhland Texas about 10 to 12 miles south to southeast of Buda Texas or over 20 miles south of Austin at 9.3 inches, most of this rain fell in a 1 to 2 hour period, i have friends that live out there and it looks like a Lake. Most areas within 20 miles of my house received 5 to 9 inches early this morning, unreal electrical storm also. Reports of a possible tornado doing quite a bit of damage in northeast Austin, has not been confirmed though.
That tire shop was tin construction

0700 AM TSTM WND DMG 6 N SOMERVILLE 30.43N 96.53W
01/25/2012 BURLESON TX PUBLIC

TIN CONSTUCTED TIRE SHOP ON HWY 36 DESTROYED.

..

Reports of a Tornado touch down near Brenham, TX. Unconfirmed as of now but numerous reports of damage to cars, trees and homes.
Storms today have had a history of producing damaging winds. Additionally the Brenham airport recorded a 70mph wind gust earlier this morning.


98S has just about made landfall. Making for some wild weather...Wild weather pops pool out of ground.
A lot of dry air coming into extreme S Texas and moving NNE on water vapor loop.

Link

Rain and weather event for TX may be about done.
US officials say the famine in Somalia has eased but 13.3 million people across the Horn of Africa still need emergency food, shelter or other aid.

The State Department says there has been significant improvement in the 1 1/2-year-long emergency, still one of the world's largest humanitarian crises.

David Robinson, acting assistant secretary for population, refugees and migration, told reporters on Tuesday the flow of refugees out of Somalia into neighbouring countries has diminished, but thousands continue to try to get out and new camps are opening in Ethiopia and Kenya.

The crisis was triggered by crop failures tied to a regional drought, but officials said it has been aggravated by the fighting between Somalia's U.N.-backed government and al-Qaeda linked insurgents. - Sapa-AP
Severe TS warnings taking over large area of Houston/Galveston area now
Another conference I've been invited to is Culture, Politics and Climate Change in Boulder, CO Sept 13-15. I will not be able to go to that either, still will be in the stan. Wonder if Dr. Rood or Dr. Masters will go.
Last night 2 AM EST
I have about 50 CD's to destroy that mom dont need. any suggestions on how to destroy? remember, it cant be a safe and recommended way:D
A new Record, maybe a all time one was Broken today in Louisiana..

Got to DMV at 8am Sharp, was 3rd in, and was out with renewed License in 7 minutes.

I hope the Pulitzer folks are made aware. I could use da cheque. : )
One creepy looking Radar return,,looks like one funnel on end.

Hoping we don't get repeat of Friday night, roads not icing yet, but 32 and wet. Looks like more moisture on way from sw though. Hope it brings warmer temps with it or we may have a mess!
I apologize for the tone of my removed post. I want to see us move in a direction to do something about cleaning our environment, whether we are affecting the global weather or not.
If you'd like to help with Portlights current project, feel free to check it out here.

Work is underway at the Tolbert House in Harrisburg Illinois.


The house donated by the community.

www.portlight.org

The Tolbert Family

Heat Advisory
Statement as of 10:23 PM CDT on August 07, 2015

... Heat advisory remains in effect from 10 am Saturday to 7 PM
CDT Sunday...

* temperature... high temperatures will be in the mid and upper
90s on Saturday... with some areas reaching or exceeding the
100 degree mark on Sunday and Monday.

* Heat index... heat index values of 105 to 110 degrees are
likely on Saturday... and a few degrees hotter on Sunday. An
excessive heat warning may be necessary in some areas over the
weekend. Additionally... the advisory will likely need to be
extended in later forecasts.

* Impacts... increased risk of heat related illnesses including
heat exhaustion and heat stroke.

Precautionary/preparedness actions...

A heat advisory means that a period of hot temperatures is
expected. The combination of hot temperatures and high humidity
will combine to create a situation in which heat illnesses are
possible. Drink plenty of fluids... stay in an air-conditioned
room... stay out of the sun... and check up on relatives and
neighbors.