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Category 4 Earl headed for a close brush with North Carolina

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 3:16 PM GMT on August 31, 2010

Powerful Category 4 Hurricane Earl is pulling away from Puerto Rico and the northern Lesser Antilles Islands, and is eyeing its next potential landfall--North Carolina's Outer Banks. Earl brought heavy rain and high winds to Puerto Rico and much of the northern Lesser Antilles yesterday, though it appears that the islands were spared major damage. One exception may be Anegada in the British Virgin Islands, population 200. The eye of Earl passed just north of Anegada at noon yesterday, and Earl's south eyewall probably brought sustained winds of 100 mph to the island. Second hardest hit was probably Anguilla. Amateur weather observer Steve Donahue at anguilla-weather.com estimated gusts of 100 mph on Anguilla; his anemometer broke at 88 mph. Winds in St. Thomas in the U.S. Virgin Islands remained above tropical storm force (39 mph) for five hours yesterday afternoon, peaking at 52 mph, gusting to 62 mph, at 4:49 pm. Heavy rains hit Puerto Rico, where radar-estimated rainfall amounts of up to 5 - 7" occurred. Earl brought waves of sixteen feet to San Juan, and waves at buoy 41043 offshore of Puerto Rico reached 31 feet early this morning.


Figure 1. Morning satellite image of Earl, taken at 10:30am EDT 8/31/10. Image credit: NASA/GSFC.


Figure 2. Radar estimated rainfall for Earl from the San Juan, Puerto Rico radar. Isolated regions of 5 - 7 " of rain occurred in three locations on Puerto Rico. The rays fanning out to east from the radar location marked with a "+" are due to mountains blocking the view of the radar.

Intensity forecast for Earl
Wind shear as diagnosed by the latest SHIPS model forecast shows a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear over Earl, due to upper level winds out of the southwest from a trough of low pressure to Earl's west. This moderate shear is predicted to continue through Friday, but should not appreciably affect Earl, since the hurricane is so large and strong. Ocean temperatures are a near-record 29.5 - 30°C, and very warm waters extend to great depth, resulting in a total ocean heat content favorable for intensification. Earl is undergoing an eyewall replacement cycle, which may diminish its winds by 10 -20 mph for a day or so. However, the storm will probably regain strength after completing this cycle, and it is likely Earl will be a major Category 3 or 4 hurricane at its closest approach to North Carolina Thursday night and Friday morning. By Friday night, when Earl will be making its closest approach to New England, wind shear will rise to a high 20 - 30 knots and ocean temperatures will plunge to 20°C, resulting in considerable weakening. Earl will still probably be a Category 2 hurricane on Friday night, when it could potentially make landfall in Massachusetts. Earl is more likely to be a Category 1 hurricane on Saturday morning, when it could potentially make landfall in Maine or Nova Scotia, Canada.


Figure 3. Swath of surface winds from Earl predicted by the 2am EDT Tuesday, August 31, 2010 runs of NOAA's GFDL model (left) and HWRF model (right). Hurricane force winds (yellow colors, above 64 knots) are predicted to stay off the coast. Tropical storm force winds (light green colors, above 34 knots) are predicted to affect coastal North Carolina, Massachusetts, and Eastern Maine. Winds between 58 mph - 73 mph (dark green colors) are predicted to small portions of the coast. Image credit: Morris Bender, NOAA/GFDL.

Track forecast for Earl
The latest set of computer models runs from 2am EDT (6Z) this morning push Earl's projected track a little closer to the U.S. East Coast, and we now have two of our six reliable models predicting a U.S. landfall. The latest NOGAPS run shows Earl hitting the Outer Banks of North Carolina late Thursday night, then striking Southeast Massachusetts late Friday night, and Eastern Maine on Saturday morning. The HWRF model predicts a strike on Eastern Maine Saturday morning, but keeps Earl offshore from North Carolina and Massachusetts. None of the other computer models show Earl hitting the U.S., but several models bring Earl within 100 - 200 miles of North Carolina's Outer Banks and Southeast Massachusetts. It is likely that Earl will being a 12-hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph to North Carolina's Outer Banks, beginning on Thursday evening. NHC is giving Cape Hatteras a 12% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. By Friday evening, western Long Island, Rhode Island, and Southeast Massachusetts can expect a 6 - 8 hour period of heavy rain and tropical storm force winds of 39+ mph. NHC is giving Nantucket a 11% chance of receiving hurricane force winds. These odds are 4% for Boston, 6% for Providence, 5% for Eastport, Maine, and 11% for Yarmouth, Nova Scotia. The main determinant of whether Earl hits the U.S. or not is a strong trough of low pressure predicted to move off the U.S. East Coast Friday. This trough, if it develops as predicted, should be strong enough to recurve Earl out to sea. Keep in mind that the average error in position for a 3-day NHC forecast is 185 miles, which is about how far offshore Earl is predicted to be from Cape Hatteras three days from now. The average error in a 4-day forecast is 255 miles, which is about the distance Earl is expected to be from the coast of New England four days from now.

Regardless of Earl's exact track, the U.S. East Coast can expect a long period of high waves beginning on Thursday. Significant beach erosion and dangerous rip currents will be the rule, due to waves that will reach 10 - 15 feet in offshore waters. Waves from Hurricane Danielle killed two swimmers in the U.S. over the weekend and forced hundreds of water rescues along the U.S. East Coast. Earl's waves will be worse, and will likely cause millions of dollars in beach erosion damage.

Fiona
Tropical Storm Fiona is speeding west-northwest towards Hurricane Earl, but is unlikely to bring tropical storm force winds to the Lesser Antilles. Satellite loops show that heavy thunderstorm activity has increased in some of the outer bands this morning, but remains limited near the center. Wind shear is currently moderate, 10 - 15 knots, and the main impediment to development continues to be dry air associated with the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) surrounding the storm.

Forecast for Fiona
Fiona is moving quickly to the west-northwest, at about 24 mph. This means it is catching up to Earl, which is moving at 15 mph. By tonight, Fiona will be beneath Earl's upper-level outflow channel. Strong upper-level winds from Earl's upper-level outflow and a ridge of high pressure to the northwest of Fiona will bring high levels of wind shear, 20 - 30 knots, to Fiona tonight through Friday, and probably arrest the storm's development. The scenario now called for by all the models is for Fiona to be drawn into the low pressure wake of Earl and turn to the northwest. Fiona will pass to the northeast of the Lesser Antilles, and will probably not bring tropical storm force winds to the islands. Fiona should then continue to the northwest and then turn north, passing very close to Bermuda on Saturday morning. It is possible Earl could destroy Fiona through high wind shear before Saturday.


Figure 4. Morning satellite image of Fiona. High level cirrus clouds flowing out from the center of Earl as part of its upper level outflow can be seen starting to impinge upon the western side of Fiona's circulation.

Danielle is dead
Tropical Storm Danielle has succumbed to the cold North Atlantic waters, and is no longer a tropical storm.

98L
A new tropical wave (Invest 98L) moved off the coast of Africa yesterday, and is centered a few hundred miles south of the Cape Verdes Islands. Strong easterly winds from the African Monsoon are creating a moderate 10 - 20 knots of shear, and the disturbance is currently disorganized. A large area of dry air lies to the north and west of 98L, and this will interfere with development. The latest SHIPS model forecast predicts shear will remain moderate, 10 - 20 knots, for the next five days, and some slow development of 98L is possible as it moves westward at 15 mph. NHC is giving a 10% chance of this system developing into a tropical depression by Thursday, and none of the computer models develop it.


Figure 5. Morning satellite image of 98L.

A rare triple threat in the Western Pacific
Over in the Western Pacific, we have an unusual triple feature--three named storms all within 700 miles of each other. A 3-way interaction between these storms is occurring, making for a very tough forecast situation. The storm of most concern is Typhoon Kompasu, which hit Okinawa today as a Category 2 typhoon. Kompasu is expected to recurve northeastward and hit North Korea on Thursday as a Category 2 typhoon. It is unusual for a powerful typhoon to thread the tight Yellow Sea and hit North Korea, and I don't know how prepared they are for strong typhoons. Kompasu is expected to hit the most populous region of North Korea, but the country is pretty mountainous, and a significant storm surge disaster is probably unlikely. In the South China Sea, Tropical Storm Lionrock and Tropical Storm Namtheun are moving through the straights between Taiwan and China towards each other. Neither are predicted to develop into typhoons, but heavy rains are occurring in Guangdong and Fujian Provinces, further exacerbating the flood conditions China has suffered this summer.


Figure 6. An unusual triple feature over the Western Pacific--three simultaneous named storms all within 700 miles of each other. Image credit: NOAA/SSD.

"Hurricane Haven" airing again this afternoon
Tune into another airing of my live Internet radio show, "Hurricane Haven", at 4pm EDT today. Listeners will be able to call in and ask questions. The call in number is 415-983-2634, or you can post a question to broadcast@wunderground.com. Be sure to include "Hurricane Haven question" in the subject line.

Today's show will be about 45 minutes, and you can tune in at http://www.wunderground.com/wxradio/wubroadcast.h tml. The show will be recorded and stored as a podcast.

I may have a short update this afternoon, once the latest models runs are available.
Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

1501. Engine2
18z GFS starting
Noticed something interesting while collecting images for my own blog:



If you trace the tightly packed upper-level steering winds pushing to the east over Earl, they lead back to where Ike made landfall.
Africa seems to have something aginst the atlantic basin now.It's moving out all these waves over the continent,and future Gaston looks very organized right now.The percentage should be raised at 8:00 to 30-40%.
Quoting Legion:
You can bet the over/under on named storms and hurricanes before the start of the season.
The bet on the degrees off on the forecast track would be more lucrative and volatile
Can anyone tell me if in history of one storm being sucked into another, other than 1991 off NewEngland (perfect storm)? It looked today as though Fiona was going to run right into Earl.
Quoting yoboi:
where is earl going?
north
Quoting CJ5:


Sorry, I responded on up further when corrected. I mean't blind in respect to that graphic. Didn't mean to come off smart arsed.
Thanks, it's all good. I've learned to take a moment before I post when perturbed.
1508. GetReal
1509. GetReal
double post...
quick poll before the 8:00pm advisory
98l
A. 10%
B. 20%
C. 30%
D. 40%
Quoting Floodman:


You would be well advised to do so; just the basic hurricane preparedness stuff: water, extra batteries, fill the gas tanks, that sort of thing...always better safe than sorry LOL


Hurricane Prep Tips
1512. angiest
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Noticed something interesting while collecting images for my own blog:



If you trace the tightly packed upper-level steering winds pushing to the east over Earl, they lead back to where Ike made landfall.


Oh hush. :)
Quoting angiest:


Who was supposed to get Charley again?

that was not hundreds of miles, Charley was a jog....uggggg....really ..really.... come on y'all nuff of the westcasting, wishcasting, upcasting........uggggggggggggggggggggggg
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 940 MB
EYE DIAMETER 30 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 115 KT WITH GUSTS TO 140 KT.
64 KT....... 80NE 80SE 30SW 60NW.
50 KT.......120NE 120SE 60SW 90NW.
34 KT.......175NE 175SE 90SW 175NW.
12 FT SEAS..470NE 240SE 180SW 420NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

Hurricance Force windfield max. >60 + 80=140nm
Trop Storm force windfield max. >175 +175=350 nm
1515. angiest
Quoting 954FtLCane:

that was not hundreds of miles, Charley was a jog....uggggg....really ..really.... come on y'all nuff of the westcasting, wishcasting, upcasting........uggggggggggggggggggggggg


The point being Charleston isn't in the clear until Earl has passed them. Until them they need to keep an eye on things.
Quoting Welling2000:
Washingtonian,

Flood's not being rude. He's being shocked about the Gulf Loop Current mention. Whatever could make you think he's being rude?


Thank you, Welling...
u double posted gr
Quoting Floodman:


You would be well advised to do so; just the basic hurricane preparedness stuff: water, extra batteries, fill the gas tanks, that sort of thing...always better safe than sorry LOL
Apology excepted.Yep local mets are already talking about Earl.
Hmm 98L looks like either we will have a red alert at 8pm or we have a red alert at 8pm and TD9 by 11pm
ok all this hype about the big west adjustment....lol
Quoting Zeec94:
Hurricane Watches in Effect from VA Beach, Virginia to the South Edge of North Carolina.


Not quite. Hurricane watches for NC coast from Onslow County northward. Tropical Storm watch from Cape Fear to Onslow County line. Nothing for NC from Cape Fear to SC line.
Hello my name is Earl....

I'm a west end boy...LOL
Quoting JRnOldsmar:
floodman - sorry here is the link...

Link


Thanks, by the way...whew, I was worried there for a minute
Does anyone have a link to the latest NOGAPS model run?
the outer bands of fiona are beginning to reach earl flow
Quoting naitsabes:
yeah, but those guys do not know what they are talking about, the models are all wrong too; in addition, this storm is comming to Florida, I feel it, that is what you'll hear from many on the blog
Must be arthritis that you must be feeling. LOL
1532. Engine2
Quoting Capeskies:
Does anyone have a link to the latest NOGAPS model run?
http://raleighwx.easternuswx.com/models/nogaps/12znogaps500mbHGHTNAnogapsLoop.html
It would totally suck if the OBX got nailed with Earl. To my knowledge they've never been hit by a high-end Cat 3 b4 ever, the damage would be incredible.
Quoting oceanblues32:
ok all this hype about the big west adjustment....lol
As far as I'm concered no one is hyping this sysytem at all.
1535. GoWVU
Well the 5:00 weather in Charleston says we should be good, other than some rip currents soooo stay out of the water. I was here for Hugo and have NOOOO desire to go through another one. Wish NC the best hope it becomes a fish storm but that does not look good
Okay, latest loops does look like Earl is slightly ne of forecast track. Also, I am very confused living in Va. Beach. Everyone has been saying the track has been shifting left for two days now. I have watched the NHC forecast and StormW and everyone else and the cone and track line does not appear any closer to us. With the latest model runs I feel even safer.

Curious as to what effects Va. Beach would feel on the west side 125 miles from a Cat 3 storm? Any thoughts from anyone?

Thanks
1538. Halyn
Quoting shadoclown45:

Read this article on the loop current it could cause major catostrophic crop failure. http://www.sott.net/articles/show/214379-Gulf-Loop-Current-Stalls-from-BP-Oil-Disaster-Global-Conse%2 0quences-if-Current-Fails-to-Reorganize


I just tried this url .. are you sure there isn't a typo in it??

http://www.sott.net/articles/show/214379-Gulf-Loop-Current-Stalls-from-BP-Oil-Disaster-Global-Conse %2 0quences-if-Current-Fails-to-Reorganize
1528:give him a break we know it wont happen but thats just his option
Quoting weatherman12345:
quick poll before the 8:00pm advisory
98l
A. 10%
B. 20%
C. 30%
D. 40%



E 60%
Quoting washingtonian115:
Apology excepted.Yep local mets are already talking about Earl.


AS well they should be...when dealing with issues fo tropical weather, one is always best erring on the side of caution...someone mentioned Charley in here a few minutes ago...people were certain that Tampa was finally going to get hit again and wait...ooops...sorry, make that Punta Gorda

There is very little that is absolute in tropical forecasting
1542. K8eCane
National Hurricane Center from Surf City to Duck on the Outer Banks.


More Information:Complete Hurricane Coverage
When is ... Hurricane season?
How do I ... Prepare for a hurricane headed for Southeastern North Carolina?
What are ... Some famous local hurricanes?
Is there ... A way TV stations can broadcast the “old way” during a hurricane for battery-powered TVs?
Follow the storms' progress at the National Hurricane Center's website
A watch means hurricane conditions, sustained winds of 73 mph or higher, are possible within 36 hours.

Officials also have issued a tropical storm watch from Surf City south to the mouth of the Cape Fear River.

The watches were issued as Hurricane Earl continues to churn toward the U.S. mainland.

The Category 4 storm, which is expected to weaken as it approaches the Carolinas, was roughly 1,000 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras as of 5 p.m. on Tuesday.

Emergency officials recommend residents use the time before the stormy conditions arrive to review their preparedness needs and evacuation plans.

I guess when they say "cape fear NC" they mean the mouth of the cape fear river which is about 30 miles to my south, and surf city is about 20 miles to my north
Quoting washingtonian115:
As far as I'm concered no one is hyping this sysytem at all.


He was referring to the Weather Channel hyping a "shift" in the forecast track.
1544. Dunkman
I like 30% for 98L at 8pm.

CDO on Earl is starting to look much better. Strangely, it seems like the east side is the weaker at the moment.


1545. myway
Quoting washingtonian115:
As far as I'm concered no one is hyping this sysytem at all.


You should have been here a couple of hours ago.
1547. funeeeg
Earl is starting to look more symmetrical on visible sat imagery. Seems that the shear west of earl is slackening. I reckon the HH will find slightly higher winds next time they go in. Just a hunch.
Earl is becoming more symetrical [Edit]: The above post
Quoting K8eCane:
National Hurricane Center from Surf City to Duck on the Outer Banks.


More Information:Complete Hurricane Coverage
When is ... Hurricane season?
How do I ... Prepare for a hurricane headed for Southeastern North Carolina?
What are ... Some famous local hurricanes?
Is there ... A way TV stations can broadcast the %u201Cold way%u201D during a hurricane for battery-powered TVs?
Follow the storms' progress at the National Hurricane Center's website
A watch means hurricane conditions, sustained winds of 73 mph or higher, are possible within 36 hours.

Officials also have issued a tropical storm watch from Surf City south to the mouth of the Cape Fear River.

The watches were issued as Hurricane Earl continues to churn toward the U.S. mainland.

The Category 4 storm, which is expected to weaken as it approaches the Carolinas, was roughly 1,000 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras as of 5 p.m. on Tuesday.

Emergency officials recommend residents use the time before the stormy conditions arrive to review their preparedness needs and evacuation plans.

I guess when they say "cape fear NC" they mean the mouth of the cape fear river which is about 30 miles to my south, and surf city is about 20 miles to my north
There are barrier islands all the way down to the SC line...I lived on Oak Island for a bit just south of Wilmington, THEY DO NOT MESS AROUND
I am probably wrong but i think Earl is trying to form another eye, anyone have a bead on that.
1551. FLdewey
Floridaitis is still present eh? I thought we had everyone immunized before Earl formed.
I wasnt planning on leaving, I heard they are planing on evacing the outer banks. I live on Harkers Island and we are prone to flooding from surge, Not sure if well be a manditory or not. Still waiting for that NW-NE curve. Hope it comes soon or Im outta here.
Quoting cartking24:
Okay, latest loops does look like Earl is slightly ne of forecast track. Also, I am very confused living in Va. Beach. Everyone has been saying the track has been shifting left for two days now. I have watched the NHC forecast and StormW and everyone else and the cone and track line does not appear any closer to us. With the latest model runs I feel even safer.

Curious as to what effects Va. Beach would feel on the west side 125 miles from a Cat 3 storm? Any thoughts from anyone?


A Hurricane watch has been posted from the VA/NC line south to Jacksonville NC
1554. marmark
Quoting Floodman:


AS well they should be...when dealing with issues fo tropical weather, one is always best erring on the side of caution...someone mentioned Charley in here a few minutes ago...people were certain that Tampa was finally going to get hit again and wait...ooops...sorry, make that Punta Gorda

There is very little that is absolute in tropical forecasting
Flood-I agree. it is irresponsible for fellow bloggers to poo-poo those who are worried in SC and NC.
minimum trop force winds maybe up to 50 in gusts; if your afraid of heavy afternoon thunderstorms, then run for the hills.
Quoting oceanblues32:
ok all this hype about the big west adjustment....lol


How could there be a big 'west adjustment' when the most current model runs are from 2:00pm EST or 3.5 hours ago? The NHC, TWC and all others use current model runs in their forecast. If the new model runs aren't out yet, then the forecast track can't change. The next NHC update should include the new model data.
1557. HarryMc
Quoting cartking24:
Okay, latest loops does look like Earl is slightly ne of forecast track. Also, I am very confused living in Va. Beach. Everyone has been saying the track has been shifting left for two days now. I have watched the NHC forecast and StormW and everyone else and the cone and track line does not appear any closer to us. With the latest model runs I feel even safer.

Curious as to what effects Va. Beach would feel on the west side 125 miles from a Cat 3 storm? Any thoughts from anyone?


West side is one cat down at the eye; 125 miles out, something like a stiff breeze under trop storm
Quoting Dunkman:
I like 30% for 98L at 8pm.

CDO on Earl is starting to look much better. Strangely, it seems like the east side is the weaker at the moment.



+1


98L will Most Likely be 20%-30% at 8PM
you betcha. there's alot we can blame BP (et.al.) for, but I think the end of the world might be pushing it...
for that poll:
C.30%
They'll probably up 98L to 20-30% at 8pm, probably just 20%, I see Earl has turned NW now, hope it just goes out to sea, folks on the East coast must be feeling a little shaky.
Quoting Floodman:


AS well they should be...when dealing with issues fo tropical weather, one is always best erring on the side of caution...someone mentioned Charley in here a few minutes ago...people were certain that Tampa was finally going to get hit again and wait...ooops...sorry, make that Punta Gorda

There is very little that is absolute in tropical forecasting
I'm qouting this from a artical.."their is little know about hurricanes,and tropical weather.Further sudies need to be intended,and not much is known about these storms"
Cool map
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gifs/hurr-uslandfalling-1950-2009.jpg




Last hope for the westcasters,
Earl wants some of that tasty bahamian fried chicken, decides to ignore all logic and turn left.
1566. Legion
Quoting Flyairbird:
The bet on the degrees off on the forecast track would be more lucrative and volatile


It would be some nice action for sure, I'd put my money down on him never crossing 75W
Quoting AstroHurricane001:
Noticed something interesting while collecting images for my own blog: If you trace the tightly packed upper-level steering winds pushing to the east over Earl, they lead back to where Ike made landfall.


Yes, SouthEast Texas had our annual Burrito Festival last weekend. It should have made it into the upper levels of the atmosphere by now.
;>)
Quoting Tazmanian:



E 60%

WHY SO HIGH
Quoting Halyn:


I just tried this url .. are you sure there isn't a typo in it??

http://www.sott.net/articles/show/214379-Gulf-Loop-Current-Stalls-from-BP-Oil-Disaster-Global-Conse %2 0quences-if-Current-Fails-to-Reorganize


Link
Quoting staffofthegods:
It would totally suck if the OBX got nailed with Earl. To my knowledge they've never been hit by a high-end Cat 3 b4 ever, the damage would be incredible.
I don't believe that they have...but I'm almost certain that they've never been hit by any hurricane moving NE, which I suppose is still a possibility depending on the exact timing. Let's hope it doesn't happen.
nice avatar taz
Finally a NW move. I guess all those so-called FPL trucks waiting in Fl. should go out for a beer, I told you all that was a lie.
1573. marmark
Where's the Tall Cool One (Ike)?
Quoting Legion:


It would be some nice action, I'd put my money down on him never crossing 75W
73.15 W here
Earl Moving N.
Quoting Flyairbird:
73.15 W here



I think it will touch 70 and then head East
1579. marmark
Quoting btwntx08:
nice avatar taz
I agree!
Quoting sammywammybamy:


98L will Most Likely be 20%-30% at 8PM

I see there is dry air ahead for 98l. has to battle through that first and foremost.
1581. FLdewey
Quoting NorthEastWishcaster:
Finally a NW move. I guess all those so-called FPL trucks waiting in Fl. should go out for a beer, I told you all that was a lie.

The FPL truck bologna started Sunday... what a hose.
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm qouting this from a artical.."their is little know about hurricanes,and tropical weather.Further sudies need to be intended,and not much is known about these storms"


Oh, we have vast information about tropical cyclones; the problem is that we have a great deal more to learn
it wobbled n still moving nw
Fiona Crashing into Earl...

So right now Earl is making that turn which means best cast senario?
So right now Earl is making that turn which means best cast senario?
1589. marmark
Quoting TexasGulf:


Yes, SouthEast Texas had our annual Burrito Festival last weekend. It should have made it into the upper levels of the atmosphere by now.
;>)
Too funny. I laughed out loud!
Quoting marmark:
I agree!
I
2nd that!
1592. FLdewey
Quoting DestinJeff:
Wow. Earl may curve so soon that Bermuda gets a direct hit!!!!!


AHHHHHHHHHHH!!!!!!!

HAHAHAHAHA! Ahhhh... it's funny because it upsets Westcasters.
but the 5 pm came out and there was no adjustment
1594. marmark
Quoting sammywammybamy:
Fiona Crashing into Earl...

It almost looks like biology class LOL
Any opinions on Fiona? I doubt she will turn NW as fast as predicted, jmo, oh and yes I'm a westcaster :)
Quoting CosmicEvents:
I don't believe that they have...but I'm almost certain that they've never been hit by any hurricane moving NE, which I suppose is still a possibility depending on the exact timing. Let's hope it doesn't happen.


Ophelia was moving NE as it raked the coast of NC in 2005.
1597. funeeeg
1548. actually "becoming more symmetric"! (Edit) double m
1599. Legion
Looks like Fiona is coming twards her death..But we can't write her off just yet.
1602. RickWPB
Quoting naitsabes:
yeah, but those guys do not know what they are talking about, the models are all wrong too; in addition, this storm is comming to Florida, I feel it, that is what you'll hear from many on the blog


Poof!
At 13:45 UTC, Earl was at 67.5W 21.5N and at the last image, at 20:45 UTC, he's at 68.9W 22.1Nso in 7 hours he's moved 1.4 west and .6 n...he's moving approximately WNW; no aspect change as yet
Quoting washingtonian115:
I'm qouting this from a artical.."their is little know about hurricanes,and tropical weather.Further sudies need to be intended,and not much is known about these storms"


The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions. In most situations, water temperatures of at least 26.5 °C (79.7 °F) are needed down to a depth of at least 50 metres (160 ft); waters of this temperature cause the overlying atmosphere to be unstable enough to sustain convection and thunderstorms. Another factor is rapid cooling with height, which allows the release of the heat of condensation that powers a tropical cyclone.High humidity is needed, especially in the lower-to-mid troposphere; when there is a great deal of moisture in the atmosphere, conditions are more favorable for disturbances to develop. Low amounts of wind shear are needed, as high shear is disruptive to the storm's circulation. Tropical cyclones generally need to form more than 555 kilometres (345 mi) or 5 degrees of latitude away from the equator, allowing the Coriolis effect to deflect winds blowing towards the low pressure center and creating a circulation. Lastly, a formative tropical cyclone needs a pre-existing system of disturbed weather, although without a circulation no cyclonic development will take place.

Quoting stormpetrol:
Any opinions on Fiona? I doubt she will turn NW as fast as predicted, jmo, oh and yes I'm a westcaster :)


petrolero
Quoting oceanblues32:
but the 5 pm came out and there was no adjustment


Well, the official forecast track is based on the current models. All of the models are from 2:00pm EST. The NHC can't make a real adjustment to Earl's forecast track until the new model data is available.

Watch for the NHC's official report at 8:00pm. It should have the new data for an updated track.




Good afternoon from pleasant sunny Providenciales in the Turks and Caicos Islands.

CRS
NEW BLOG
new blog up yall
Good afternoon everyone. It looks like Earl is finally beginning his slow turn north.
Quoting DestinJeff:


No, but they do all have very nice teeth.

You mean tooth?
Quoting washingtonian115:
Looks like Fiona is coming twards her death..But we can't write her off just yet.

Fiona has been holding her own despite that monster she is so close to, will really be interesting to see how this plays out , cant recall seeing 2 storms that close in the Atlantic basin before.
1616. funeeeg
1550; yes I think it is. on the last reckon the max flt level winds of 128kts were at least 30 nautical miles from the lowest pressure readings which indicate a new eyewall. You can see the outline of the new eye on the shortwave IR link
I find it somewhat odd that as soon as Warnings go up for NC a lot of peole seem to be jumping on it moving east now...Are ya'll just anti-NHC or what? As teh floodman points out it is moving wnw...I am here as an observer only, no knowlege of weather...But, it just seems like a lot of bologna...

NO more off topic, and if you have an explanation for now a bermuda hit, please say what it is...
1618. Halyn
Quoting JRnOldsmar:


Link


Thank you .. :)
HURRICANE AND TROPICAL FORCE WINDS
WITHIN 175 NM NE...160 NM SE...120 NM SW AND 160 NM NW QUADRANTS
OF EARL. HIGHEST WINDS 115 GUSTS TO 140 KT. SEAS 12 FT OR
GREATER 320 NM NE...170 NM SE...100 NM SW...AND 160 NM NW
QUADRANTS. HIGHEST SEAS TO 45 FT. ELSEWHERE S OF 27N E OF 74W
WINDS 20 TO 33 KT. SEAS TO 12 FT. FROM 23N TO 27N W OF 74W NE TO
E WINDS INCREASING 20 TO 25 KT. SEAS BUILDING 7 TO 11 FT IN
MIXED SE AND E SWELL...EXCEPT 4 TO 6 FT W OF BAHAMAS. S OF 23N W
OF 74W NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT TONIGHT BECOMING N TO NE 10 TO 15 KT
BY LATE TUE. SEAS 4 TO 5 FT WITH LARGE NE SWELL SEEPING THROUGH
ATLC PASSAGE. N OF 27N E OF 74W NE WINDS 15 TO 20 KT INCREASING
TO 20 TO 30 KT TUE NIGHT. SEAS 7 TO 10 FT IN MIXED NE AND SE
SWELL BUILD TO 12 FT OR HIGHER IN SE SWELL TUE. N OF 27N W OF
74W NE TO E 15 KT INCREASING TO 20 KT TUE NIGHT. SEAS 6 TO 7 FT
BUILD TO 7 TO 10 FT TUE NIGHT. NUMEROUS SQUALLS AND TSTMS IN
BANDS SPREADING NW OVER E AND CENTRAL PORTIONS.

Quoting TexasGulf:


Well, the official forecast track is based on the current models. All of the models are from 2:00pm EST. The NHC can't make a real adjustment to Earl's forecast track until the new model data is available.

Watch for the NHC's official report at 8:00pm. It should have the new data for an updated track.


AND the current modeling data is deruived from observational data from the period prior to the run; most of the "current" model data is in reality, some 6 hours old or more
1621. SQUAWK
Quoting TexasGulf:


Yes, SouthEast Texas had our annual Burrito Festival last weekend. It should have made it into the upper levels of the atmosphere by now.
;>)


That is the best I have seen all day. Can't believe that DJ didn't jump all over that. LMAO!!!
Quoting aislinnpaps:
Good afternoon everyone. It looks like Earl is finally beginning his slow turn north.
No it's not !
1623. bwat
I don't know what to think! I like the current track keeping him just east of us here in eastern NC, but I have been keeping up with Earl since genesis. I have noticed a more westerly track with every other advisory. I don't want to see it, but just from the history of Earl, a Morehead City to Hatteras landfall doesnt seem so unlikley. I was lurking at work with my dial up connection and was reading of a northern movement which thrilled me. I got home and run the visible loop, and the northern component seemed short lived. Back to lurking for me. Any thoughts would be appreciated.
Is it 2 hours 'til they update forecast tracks?
Quoting angiest:


You didn't get your BA in Underwater Basket Weaving?


(CRICKETS)
Quoting gulfbreeze:
No it's not !

Ok, so the movement the last few hours is NOT more northerly than the last two days?
Looks like the eye is making a slight comeback compared to the past several hours as the cloud cover is breaking up over the eastern edge of the eye.

Some slight rebuilding of convection on the western edge too.

Maybe shear is relaxing?
Yeah...

At 2045 through 2115UTC on RGB, you can CLEARLY see shear significantly relaxed over the western half of the storm all of a sudden within 2 frames and stayed down.

Then immediately you see the western CDO "round out" and a tower of very high clouds pop up in the eye wall in the next frame.
Quoting DestinJeff:
OH SNAP, CRACKLE, AND A POP!

The new GFS is about .1 miles SOUTH AND WEST of the previous run.

RUN FROM WIND, HIDE IN THE BASEMENT FROM THE WATER!!!!!

LIFT WITH YOUR BACK, NOT YOUR KNEES!


ah, well, there goes the "natural" male enhancement again. Where are my pills?
Pay close attention, and don't let her wait until the last minute. Remember the Bolivar Peninsula.
Earl is moving more westerly.