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Category 4 Earl Approaches the East Coast

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:49 AM GMT on September 02, 2010

Hi, Dr. Rob Carver with your evening blog update. It's a busy night in the tropics with category 4 Hurricane Earl and Tropical Storms Fiona and Gaston in the Atlantic. We'll focus on Earl tonight.

Earl
As of 11PM EDT, Earl is a Category 4 storm with sustained winds of 140 mph and faster gusts. From the advisory, Earl is located at 27.8 N, 73.8 W, 520 miles south-southeast of Cape Hatteras, NC. On average, Earl is currently moving north-northwest at 18 mph. Data from hurricane hunter flights show that Earl's pressure has fallen, the minimum central pressure is now 932 mb. Looking at Figure 1, an estimate of rainfall rates (think radar in space), we see a complete eyewall, with an especiallly vigorous thunderstorm cluster in the northwest quadrant. These


Fig. 1 Estimated rainfall-rate of Earl taken at 9PM EDT 1 September 2010. Image courtesy of the Naval Research Lab

Earl is still a large storm. Hurricane force winds extend 90 miles from the storm center and tropical storm force winds can be found 230 miles away. 12 foot seas extend at least 210 nmi from the center in all directions and may reach out to 450 nmi in the northeast quadrant of the storm. The most recent estimate (930PM EDT) of Earl's integrated kinetic energy is 91 TJ, with a wind impact of 3.1 out of 6 and a storm surge impact of 4.7 out of 6. Like Dr. Masters said earlier today, if the right front quadrant of Earl stays out to sea, the storm surge may not be as significant as this rating indicates.

Track Forecast
NHC has not really altered their track forecast for this update. Thanks to the subtropical high, Earl will continue turning toward the north as it moves around the subtropical high. When the trough in the jet stream comes out on Thursday, Earl will accelerate quickly to the northeast. The timing of the trough's arrival will determine Earl's impact on the East Coast. If the trough comes out quickly, Earl will stay at sea. If the trough is late in arriving, it could move Earl across the East Coast.

That said, the current forecast still holds that Earl's center will stay out to sea, but with Earl's center passing near the Outer Banks late Thursday night, then passing the Delmarva peninsula Friday morning before flying past Cape Cod Friday night and crossing over Canada's Nova Scotia Saturday. There is also a small possibility (less than 10%) that Earl could pass directly over the Outer Banks and/or the Delmarva peninsula. However, with a storm of Earl's size, the center does not have to pass overhead to cause damage. Please keep this in mind when considering your hurricane preparations.

Winds Forecast
Earl's size and track will produce tropical-storm force winds somewhere along the East Coast this weekend, and there is a 28% chance of hurricane-force winds along the Outer Banks. NHC puts out a very useful wind probability forecast. The highlights are that Cape Hatteras, NC has a 28% chance of hurricane-force winds and a 91% chance of tropical-storm (TS) force winds. A wide swath of 30+% probabilities covers the East Coast from Virginia to New England. Cities with a greater than 40% chance of TS winds include Norfolk, Ocean City, Providence, Boston, and Nantucket. Halifax, Nova Scotia in Canada has a 62% chance of TS force winds.

Earl is expected to maintain its current intensity until it meets the trough and starts moving northeastwards. The shear from the trough will start weakening it. It will likely go by Cape Cod as a fast-moving category 2 hurricane. When it goes over Nova Scotia, it will likely still be a tropical storm.
Current Watches and Warnings

Hurricane warnings are valid for the coast from Bogue Inlet, NC to the NC/VA border. Hurricane watches in effect from the NC/VA border to Cape Henlopen, DE and from Woods Hole, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA. Tropical storm warnings and watches cover much of the coast in between the NC/VA border and Woods Hole, MA. For the latest information on watches and warnings for Earl, visit our Tropical Alerts page.

Impacts
The primary threats from Earl are going to be storm surge, surf, and wind. Since Earl is forecast to gain speed after meeting the trough, flooding from rain should not be a large problem. From a broad perspective, storm surges are expected to be 3-5 feet above the tidal level, with large breaking waves at the coast. Beach erosion along the Delmarva peninsula and Outer Banks (8-10 foot breaking waves) could be significant. For more localized info, check out NWS's Hurricane Local Statements or our severe weather page.

What to do
People living in areas covered by the watches and warnings should be working through their hurricane preparation plans now. You have less than 24 hours to complete your preparations if you are in the Outer Banks and less than 48 hours in New England. Be sure to listen to local media for statements from emergency management agencies and the local NWS.

Fiona
All watches and warnings for Fiona were discontinued by the 5:00 PM EDT forecast. Fiona is forecast to curve northward without affecting land and dissipate in 4 days.

Gaston
Once Earl moves past Nova Scotia, this is the storm to watch in the tropical Atlantic. While it is far out at sea (more than 6 days to affect land), some computer models suggest Gaston could affect the Bahamas or the Caribbean. Statistical intensity forecast models (LGEM and SHIPS) rapidly intensify Gaston, but the dynamical models (HWRF, GFDL) do not. This storm will be worth watching over the next week or so.

Aerial Reconnaissance
The skies around Earl are going to be very busy Thursday according to the Tropical Cyclone Plan of the Day. There will be 3 flights from the Hurricane Hunters. NCAR and NOAA's Gulfstream's will be flying around Earl. HRD's WP-3D's will be flying research missions every 12 hours. NASA is sending several aircchraft as part of their Genesis and Rapid Intensification Processes (GRIP) mission. Their Global Hawk UAV will be flying for at least 24 hours. NASA's DC-8 has a six-hour mission scheduled. Finally, a WB-57 (one of the planes I supported during 2001's CRYSTAL-FACE) will also be flying high above Earl with microwave remote sensing gear. NASA has a nice list of the airborne instruments.


Fig. 2 Photo of Earl's eyewall taken from NASA's DC-8 Image Credit: NASA/Jane Peterson. (Full size image)

Next update
Dr. Jeff Masters will have an update Thursday morning. Dr. Masters, myself, Shaun Tanner, and myself will be participating in a special Hurricane Haven Thursday afternoon to discuss Earl's imminent approach. Dr. Masters will have the finalized details in his blog update.

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

HurricaneEarl's heading had turned northward to 6.2degrees west of dueNorth
from its previous heading of 1.9degrees north of NorthNorthWest
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was ~!8.3mph(~29.5km/h)

01Sep . 12pmGMT - - 24.5n71.6w - - 125mph - - 943mb - - NHC.Adv.#28A
01Sep . 03pmGMT - - 25.1n72.1w - - 125mph - - 943mb - - #29
01Sep . 06pmGMT - - 25.7n72.7w - - 125mph - - 941mb - - #29A
H.Earl becomes Cat.4 again
01Sep . 09pmGMT - - 26.3n73.3w - - 135mph - - 941mb - - #30
02Sep . 12amGMT - - 27.2n73.5w - - 135mph - - 941mb - - #30A
02Sep . 03amGMT - - 27.8n73.8w - - 140mph - - 932mb - - #31
02Sep . 06amGMT - - 28.6n74.4w - - 140mph - - 932mb - - #31A
02Sep . 09amGMT - - 29.3n74.7w - - 145mph - - 928mb - - #32
02Sep . 12pmGMT - - 30.1n74.8w - - 145mph - - 932mb - - #32A

Copy&paste 24.5n71.6w, 25.1n72.1w, 25.7n72.7w, 26.3n73.3w, 27.2n73.5w-27.8n73.8w, 27.8n73.8w-28.6n74.4w, 28.6n74.4w-29.3n74.7w, 29.3n74.7w-30.1n74.8w, gso, 30.1n74.8w-37.48n75.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~26hours from now to CapeCharles,Virginia
Actually nearest Exmore, but CapeCharles is familiar.
Quoting Relix:


We haven't seen the last of Gaston!


That slow down isn't helping. The lack of speed could kill him if he does not speed up a bit. Not that I would mind watching death by lack of movement.
1004. Relix
Quoting KanKunKid:


In his defense, I must say he is right. My Ex was Cuban and the SH word to them wasn't the same as it is to us. The word translated SH for them means something less profane. I had to get after my wife for using it, of course with her accent it always came out "sheet", but the ones with tender ears would get offended.

However, rules are rules and no matter how silly we think them to be (I know, I've got the "post removed" censor before) we are on Dr Master's blog and he has requested that we go by the rules. So either out of respect for the good Doctor or out of fear that your post will be removed, consider carefully the content of your posts.
Personally, I always enjoy your comments, so don't let this discourage you. If you feel you must use an expletive to fully express yourself, try leaving out a letter or 2 or put in an *, even then you might risk offending the "community". So it is better to use other words or learn a few more adjectives.
Thanks, though for your comments.


Thanks =). I really didn't notice what foul word I had used until a few minutes later. Yeah I know the rules, it just slipped my fingers. I know this place is strict so that's the first time that has happened. Oh well... stuff happens. =P
TWC said if earl does not turn now it will be a direct hit on OBX
1006. lippy
Orca - Indeed. I would hope that a stronger storm (than forecast by the models) might influence the track further to the right.
Quoting DestinJeff:
That XTRP vector aint purty.
That Xtrap model has been doing better with this storm than usual. Must have upgraded it. J/K ;)~
1008. angiest
Quoting Orcasystems:


If Earl misses that next turn... not pretty





Is the hurricane symbol sitting on a vortex fix? Looks ever so slightly left. Wobbles are becoming important.
1009. Relix
Quoting ElConando:


That slow down isn't helping. The lack of speed could kill him if he does not speed up a bit. Not that I would mind watching death by lack of movement.


Problem is he's gonna keep moving slow thanks to steering currents. He's in for a few hellish days.
1010. Patrap
The trof isnt even affectting the Northwestern Outflow.

Get a move on while one can.

Dont bet on the turn. You'll be hedging your life possibly.
1012. FLdewey
Children

During a disaster, your family may have to leave your home and daily routine. Children may become anxious, confused, or frightened. It is important to give children guidance that will help them reduce their fears.

Children depend on daily routines: They wake up, eat breakfast, go to school, play with friends. When emergencies or disasters interrupt this routine, children may become anxious.

In a disaster, they'll look to you and other adults for help. How you react to an emergency gives them clues on how to act. If you react with alarm, a child may become more scared. They see our fear as proof that the danger is real. If you seem overcome with a sense of loss, a child may feel their losses more strongly.

Children's fears also may stem from their imagination, and you should take these feelings seriously. A child who feels afraid is afraid. Your words and actions can provide reassurance. When talking with your child, be sure to present a realistic picture that is both honest and manageable.

Feelings of fear are healthy and natural for adults and children. But as an adult, you need to keep control of the situation. When you're sure that danger has passed, concentrate on your child's emotional needs by asking the child what's uppermost in his or her mind. Having children participate in the family's recovery activities will help them feel that their life will return to "normal." Your response during this time may have a lasting impact.

Contact your local Red Cross for assistance with disaster related mental health assistance. Having served many years as an American Red Cross Disaster Mental Health Worker I know the strain a diaster can take on families. Stick together!
Quoting usa777:

Actually the west side of the bay will get the worst surge. We wont see any winds on this side but we will get some surge.


True, where my father keeps his boat might get the surge, although he's at the top of the bay. I'm well off the bay, so I'm not worried. People here are acting like we're going to get clobbered, but I live along 95. We're fine.
1014. Vero1
Earl should be approaching the GulfStream split.
Quoting texascoastres:
TWC said if earl does not turn now it will be a direct hit on OBX
So TWC is capable of drawing a straight line on a map of the east coast? Who knew they possessed such sophistication?
If you are going to stay and you are in Earl's Crosshairs, make sure you have LOTS of garbage bags on hand. Because your plumbing may go out and you will some place to go to the bathroom. I know it sounds crazy, but it is should be on your list of things to buy if you are going to stay through a monster like this...It's one of those things lots of people don't think about...Due to our close calls on the Gulf Coast recently, we have our hurricane supply lists down to a fine science now. And, did I mention anti-bacterial gel!?! That is a must as well if you have no running water for a time. :)
Quoting angiest:


Is the hurricane symbol sitting on a vortex fix? Looks ever so slightly left. Wobbles are becoming important.


That last Vortex fix was one I took off the HH run, they have not plotted it yet officially.

Unless it has a complete Time stamp.. ie time and date... its one I took off their information... its correct... just not official.
1019. Patrap
These LARGE CV Style Hurricanes with this type of Momentumn cant turn on a dime or a penny.

Take all Preps to Protect Life Now and property.
Time is Limited.

Time is NOT on ones side in the WARNED areas.

Quoting Patrap:
We're witnessing a CATASTROPHIC hurricane approaching the Coast,,by 20 Miles every hour now.

The Water is coming.

Dont be there when she crosses the coast.



Pat ya think it's gonna actually cross over the OBX at this point?
Quoting FLdewey:
Can we get Oz an anemometer hat? Shockingly it wouldn't make him look any more ridiculous.


Good thing OZ is a big guy as we won't have to worry about him blowing away.
Quoting texascoastres:
TWC said if earl does not turn now it will be a direct hit on OBX

Yeah and it appears it just took a slight left jog.
From what I can tell on the lastest RGB, Earl is wobbling Northwest agian the last few frames.

Link

1024. IKE
Quoting katty5:
people you can forget the trof it wont save you ear is coming right down the pipe and will destroy anything that gets in his way....so if you havent left i would leave now this storm is a killer...


I was worried about my ears.

Quoting tkeith:
They are first on my list since I have no children at home.

Gotta take care of those that cant take care of themselves.

If you have elderly or sick neighbors they would be high on that list as well.


Micro-chipping your pets are a life saver, so many animals for K never found their home. You can often get micro-chipping done at a reduced cost by calling local animal shelters. Also finding dog food is a real pain once you return home if there is significant damage, If you evacuate buy an extra supply of animal food while you're gone and bring it with you. If you stay, buy it now. Extra water is a MUST for animals, many people don't take them into account when figuring out how much to stock up on for storms.
Quoting texascoastres:
TWC said if earl does not turn now it will be a direct hit on OBX
DUH
yeah.

The anticipated westward wobble following the NW elongation has begun to be verified.

I wonder how long this wobble will continue?
1028. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI

Quoting gumbogrrl:
If you are going to stay and you are in Earl's Crosshairs, make sure you have LOTS of garbage bags on hand. Because your plumbing may go out and you will some place to go to the bathroom. I know it sounds crazy, but it is should be on your list of things to buy if you are going to stay through a monster like this...It's one of those things lots of people don't think about...Due to our close calls on the Gulf Coast recently, we have our hurricane supply lists down to a fine science now. And, did I mention anti-bacterial gel!?! That is a must as well if you have no running water for a time. :)


Ok....

If you are planning for GARBAGE bags to go to the bathroom....

it is time to consider evacuating. ??
1030. Relix
LGEM Forecast:

6 hours. 30 knots
12 hours. 29 knots
18 hours. 29 knots
24 hours. 30 knots
36 hours. 35 knots
48 hours. 40 knots
And then increasing to 100 knots by 120 hours

Makes sense. A lot.
Quoting ShenValleyFlyFish:
DUH


ROFLMAO... Earl does like that XTRAP line doesn't he.
Quoting gwhite713:


I do sir. It was heart breaking. I drive a rig and delivered alot of relief supplies. The city has spirit rivaled by none. With no where near the population it once had, it still managed to come together, rebuild and produce a championship NFL team. Who else can boast this? =)
yeah! WHO DAT!
1037. Snowmog
Quoting SkulDouggery:

Yeah and it appears it just took a slight left jog.


so, if that does happen, what does it mean for the NE?
1038. IKE
1345UTC visible...

Quoting CloudGatherer:

For the 200 NM reading, I was relying on this SFMR Reading

Time: 12:53:30Z
Coordinates: 29.7333N 77.9833W
Acft. Static Air Press: 643.8 mb (~ 19.01 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt: 3,815 meters (~ 12,516 feet)
Extrap. Sfc. Press: 1003.2 mb (~ 29.62 inHg)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind: 40 knots (~ 46.0 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) Sfc. Wind: 35 knots (~ 40.2 mph)

On the same run, that aircraft made its center fix at 30.15/74.8. So how do you get 108 NM?


I was using the dropsonde location, that location is 167 nautical miles, but 10 second SFMR are not 1 minute sustained.
1041. angiest
Quoting butterflymcb:


Ok....

If you are planning for GARBAGE bags to go to the bathroom....

it is time to consider evacuating. ??


Sounds like a good idea. ;)

The alternative is to buy a spade and some biodegradable TP. Just like camping in the wilderness.
1042. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI

Quoting Patrap:
We're witnessing a CATASTROPHIC hurricane approaching the Coast,,by 20 Miles every hour now.

The Water is coming.

Dont be there when she crosses the coast.



Earl is going doing something that you do not see a storm do too often. Run from the Mid Atlantic to New England and into Eastern Canada all at Hurricane strength. Though Inland areas will be lightly affected some coastal areas in those regions may not look the same after earl passes.
Quoting Patrap:
The trof isnt even affectting the Northwestern Outflow.

Get a move on while one can.

Dont bet on the turn. You'll be hedging your life possibly.


Pat have you posted the Vaccerella (sp) footage? Or the one of that old guy in Slidel that stayed? I can't remember his name for the life of me.
Are any TV stations in N.C. doing wall-to-wall coverage on Earl and if so, is the live streaming available on the net?
Quoting Patrap:
The trof isnt even affectting the Northwestern Outflow.

Get a move on while one can.

Dont bet on the turn. You'll be hedging your life possibly.


Pat have you posted the Vaccerella (sp) footage? Or the one of that old guy in Slidel that stayed? I can't remember his name for the life of me.
1048. Patrap
If Earls Eye Makes Landfall along the OBX..the Landscape will be changed forever.

GET OUT.
I am really not at all concerned anymore regarding the trough not steering Earl away from the Outer banks & the eastern seaboard. Even w/ a couple potential wobbles/jogs westward with the eyewall on subsequent upcoming GOES images , this storm will most likely be well off the coast (50 miles or so) from making any direct hit on mainland. Movement should continue at around 355 degrees north until moving due north. However, it's effects (northwest quadrant primarily) will still be much felt w/ the surge & hurricane force winds since it's pressure is still very deep - 932mb. In addition, storm has most likely peaked in intensity late last evening (930mb central pressure at the 11pm EDT advisory).
1050. ncstorm
Quoting FLdewey:
Children

During a disaster, your family may have to leave your home and daily routine. Children may become anxious, confused, or frightened. It is important to give children guidance that will help them reduce their fears.

Children depend on daily routines: They wake up, eat breakfast, go to school, play with friends. When emergencies or disasters interrupt this routine, children may become anxious.

In a disaster, they'll look to you and other adults for help. How you react to an emergency gives them clues on how to act. If you react with alarm, a child may become more scared. They see our fear as proof that the danger is real. If you seem overcome with a sense of loss, a child may feel their losses more strongly.

Children's fears also may stem from their imagination, and you should take these feelings seriously. A child who feels afraid is afraid. Your words and actions can provide reassurance. When talking with your child, be sure to present a realistic picture that is both honest and manageable.

Feelings of fear are healthy and natural for adults and children. But as an adult, you need to keep control of the situation. When you're sure that danger has passed, concentrate on your child's emotional needs by asking the child what's uppermost in his or her mind. Having children participate in the family's recovery activities will help them feel that their life will return to "normal." Your response during this time may have a lasting impact.


Great Post! My kids are very anxious and I have been reassuring them we will be okay..I try to let them know that their mom is a Pro for hurricanes and we will be okay but on the inside I am really nervous about this one
1051. Patrap
Vaccarella Family - Hurricane Katrina

12 Miles East of Downtown NOLA.



21.) Hurricane Beulah, 1967; 923mb. (160mph, Category Five.)
22.) Hurricane David, 1979; 924mb. (175mph, Category Five.)
23.) Hurricane #3, 1853; 924mb. (155mph, Category Four.)
24.) Cuban Hurricane of 1910; 924mb. (150mph, Category Four.)
25.) Indianola Hurricane of 1886; 925mb. (150mph, Category Four.)
26.) Hurricane Anita, 1977; 926mb. (175mph, Category Five.)
27.) Florida Keys Hurricane of 1919; 927mb. (150mph, Category Four.)
28.) Hurricane Esther, 1961; 927mb. (145mph, Category Four.)
29.) Hurricane Gabrielle, 1989; 927mb. (145mph, Category Four.)
30.) Hurricane Carmen, 1975; 928mb. (150mph, Category Four.)

31.) Hurricane Earl, 2010; 928mb. (145mph, Category Four.)
32.) Hurricane #8, 1880; 928mb. (140mph, Category Four.)
33.) Hurricane Felix, 2007; 929mb. (175mph, Category Five.)
34.) Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928; 929mb. (160mph, Category Five.)
35.) Hurricane Emily, 2005; 929mb. (160mph, Category Five.)
36.) Hurricane Inez, 1966; 929mb. (150mph, Category Four.)
37.) Hurricane Carol, 1953; 929mb. (150mph, Category Four.)
38.) Hurricane Felix, 1995; 929mb. (140mph, Category Four.)
39.) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899; 930mb. (150mph, Category Four.)
40.) Hurricane Gert, 1999; 930mb. (150mph, Category Four.)

That's the company Earl keeps.
1054. katty5
there just wont be and OBX when earl is through nothing will be left..
1055. tkeith
1025. LADobeLady 9:03 AM CDT on September 02, 2010

Both of my dogs have chips LADobe...They are the first thing I load in the car. I DONT ride out Hurricanes.

I watch them from Arkansas (while listening to banjo music)...lol
There is nothing brave about staying, there is nothing cool about staying, the only thing not evacuating does is jeopardize you and your families life. Please, please leave, hurricanes are not fun, living in their aftermath is not fun. Be safe and smart.

(this was to anyone who is thinking about staying)
Quoting TheMom:
Okay so my cousin in Newport News is not listening to me that she needs to be getting things secured the local mets are telling them
"Well, now its even further out to sea than yesterday. Unless it suddenly turns west, it wont hit us at all. Theyre not even predicting rain for us. Just partly cloudy."
Can I get a wake up call please that I can send her? I'm terrified she isn't even thinking the fact that the trains have stopped service to her Newport News is a big deal.


The local mets are probably right. NHC guidance has Newport News on the border of their hurricane warning and tropical storm warning areas, with Earl's eye about 200 miles out at sea.
1058. angiest
Quoting Patrap:
NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Storm Relative Mean Radial Velocity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 124 NMI



Those are some strong storms.
1020:

The trough is moving so slow and it needs to be a LOT closer to actually steer Earl as opposed to the distance needed to enhance outflow.


when the outflow taps that trough it is going to have serious intensification potential for several hours before the trough ever starts to steer him.

So because the trough is so far behind schedule, we may see Earl maintain this intensity straight into landfall (NC), or even strengthening upon impact.

Based on intensity map, the water temps support cat5 as far north as 35N, so there is no reason to believe Earl will weaken significantly before 35N.
Quoting ElConando:
In other news, have you ever seen a slower mover across the ATL recently than Gaston. I mean i've seen some go 12-13 mph but 9?


Not many. It sure adds to the buildup of tension watching and waiting, not knowing where it's heading. Of course... Ivan sat on top of us in Cayman for 18 hours as it poked along at 4-6 mph at Cat 5 strength.
1061. Patrap
Quoting tkeith:
1025. LADobeLady 9:03 AM CDT on September 02, 2010

Both of my dogs have chips LADobe...They are the first thing I load in the car. I DONT ride out Hurricanes.

I watch them from Arkansas (while listening to banjo music)...lol


A smart man wit da plan Lives to Party again.

Wisdom comes in doses today.

by tonight..some will be praying and Hoping and wishing they left.

U betcha.
Quoting ElConando:


Earl is going doing something that you do not see a storm do too often. Run from the Mid Atlantic to New England and into Eastern Canada all at Hurricane strength. Though Inland areas will be lightly affected some coastal areas in those regions may not look the same after earl passes.


My "Guess" is that Earls CPA to the OBX will be about 40 miles to the east of Buxton, if he continues as he has the last few days to stay just to PORT of the NHC track. Guess being the keyword...
Quoting aimetti:
at this point what do you guys feel about south eastern ct?

I live 10 miles from the shore so surge isnt a problem. But lets say it did hit west. I am assuming I am not at the point or real need to evac?





Based on the picture below, you have a good chance of tropical storm winds. As for evacuating, generally we "hide from winds, run from water". Many variables to consider: proximity to lake or river, amount of trees around house, fear factor. It's really more of a personal decision for you at this point.


Hide from wind, Run from water.
Quoting tkeith:
1025. LADobeLady 9:03 AM CDT on September 02, 2010

Both of my dogs have chips LADobe...They are the first thing I load in the car. I DONT ride out Hurricanes.

I watch them from Arkansas (while listening to banjo music)...lol


I had so many great dogs come through my home after K, never to go back with their families because they weren't chipped. To see all the great animals at Lamar-Dixon just forgotten was a life changer for many and so unnecessary.
1068. katty5
people time is running out fast once the gales come in and they are right off the coast you wont be able to leave..leave while you still can before this monster takes everything you own including your life...
1069. Gearsts
Quoting AlvaroSM:
Gaston right now is having problems with organization. Could him get more organizing in the next hours?...
Is actually more organize but lacks convection dry air and shear are the problem
1070. Gearsts
Quoting AlvaroSM:
Gaston right now is having problems with organization. Could him get more organizing in the next hours?...
Is actually more organize but lacks convection dry air and shear are the problem
1071. lhwhelk
Quoting LADobeLady:



Micro-chipping your pets are a life saver, so many animals for K never found their home.

This is very true. I run a rescue group and saw what could happen. Additionally, from a behavior training perspective (I am a trainer), if your DOG is afraid of the wind, lightning, thunder, etc., the worst thing you can do is to comfort him and say, "It's all right, baby." You need to act as though it is all part of life (it is) and perhaps even exciting.
The same thing works for CHILDREN. My brother and I didn't find out until we were adults that our mother was terrified of lightning. She always taught us that it was something exciting, and we both still love storms. (Which is a different thing from wishing for a hurricane!)
1072. angiest
These are my thoughts on people not living on the coast evacuating:

Link
I had both my dogs chipped just for that reason -however, when chipping very small dogs with little or no fat be aware of the fact that sometimes, not often, the chip will work itself out... On my little 5 pound boy - it did just that. We decided not to re-chip him.

East Coast people be safe - Earl is a monster churning out there.

Good Day to all! : )
Quoting LADobeLady:


I had so many great dogs come through my home after K, never to go back with their families because they weren't chipped. To see all the great animals at Lamar-Dixon just forgotten was a life changer for many and so unnecessary.
Quoting Patrap:


A smart man wit da plan Lives to Party again.

Wisdom comes in doses today.

by tonight..some will be praying and Hoping and wishing they left.

U betcha.


I wish there was a way to play some of those calls from WWL radio, all those people calling in because the water was rising and they were trapped. One of the most chilling things I've ever heard and it changed my life forever.
STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.



Please if you are in the Outer Banks just get in a car and move 30-40 miles West and find some lodging to stay for a night. You are more important than your home. Other recent destructive storms such as Floyd did not make a direct pass at the Outer banks at peak strength.
Quoting nrtiwlnvragn:


I was using the dropsonde location, that location is 167 nautical miles, but 10 second SFMR anre not 1 minute sustained.


Sure. It's 167NM as the crow flies, 200NM by the great circle. And SFMR winds are not the same as dropsonde. On the other hand, a long chain of 35knot observations - as opposed to an isolated peak wind - is roughly as reliable. And that's what it found at that distance from the storm. I'd rather they'd deployed another dropsonde to verify, but the winds were entirely consistent with other observations, and I'm perfectly comfortable relying on the SFMR for setting the westward extent of Tropical Storm force winds.

My point is that the position statements have, if anything, been fairly dramatically understating the extension of tropical storm force winds to the west of Earl. This storm is going to have a real impact not only on the outer banks, but well on shore in NC and VA.

We'll get further verification of this in the next few minutes. The next hunter - and Air Force C130J - is now commencing its inbound run from the northwest. It should switch on its SFMR for the next high-density burst, and we'll get some readings that will give a better indication of just how soon the OBX will start to encounter some serious winds.
Quoting Relix:


Thanks =). I really didn't notice what foul word I had used until a few minutes later. Yeah I know the rules, it just slipped my fingers. I know this place is strict so that's the first time that has happened. Oh well... stuff happens. =P


I'm the one that made the comment about the foul language. It's done. Forgiven. Move on.

Trust me, that will be one of the more tame things that will happen on this blog in the next couple of days. :)
1078. Gearsts
Double post eh? :(
Sorry, just too funny. Stephanie Abrams, explaining a water vapor map describes it as:

"If the atmosphere is like a hamburger, we're now looking at the lettuce and tomato layer..."

Really gotta enjoy TWC...
Earl's NW eyewall looks like it might be under the gun:

1081. Patrap
NEXRAD Radar
Wilmington, Base Reflectivity 0.50 Degree Elevation Range 248 NMI


1082. angiest
Radar shows some rain bands moving on shore.
Quoting TexasGulf:


If you DO stay, talk to your kids about what to expect from the Hurricane. They need to know that it won't last more than about 8-hours and then it will go away.

Write down names and phone #'s of relatives to call in case you get separated. Make sure everybody gets a copy. Have a place to meet arranged in case you get separated. One relative, not in that area, should be selected to be the 'contact person'. "In case you get lost, call Aunt Martha."

If your dog or cat doesn't have ID tags, then make one out of plastic and write name, address and several phone #'s in permanent marker, then secure it to their collars. Luggage tags work great.

Just a few simple common sense things can mean the difference between sanity and chaos during and after the storm. When people get nervous, they tend to eat. Have a few snack munchies with you for the storm, especially for the kids. Light a few votive candles (in globes or good glass containers) to put in several rooms of your house. It really helps when the electricity goes out (which it will).

Have a radio handy with spare batteries. It helps you to get through a storm if you hear reports about where the eye is and where it is passing now.

Just use common sense. Expect lots of trees down, area flooding and no electricity for a while and no running water (at least not drinkable water).


People don't want anyone talking about this here, but I'm going to.
Can 150 mph winds kill you? Can the roof over your head flying off to the next block kill you? Will heavy rain kill you? What are the dangers of a hurricane? Wind, water, storm surge. Secondary dangers include items that can be found in the wind. These items are anything that can be picked up by strong winds and carried. The item will collide with anything in its path. Make sure it isn't you. If you live in a low lying area, it will flood. If there is divergent topography, you could see some serious rivers of water and debris with complex currents that can take you under and keep you under longer than you can hold your breath. Your house has to be several feet higher than the average terrain to be able to use it as a shelter from flood.
Afterward, poisonous snakes, polluted water and live electric lines, (even if it is off, a person with a "whole house generator" could have it wired incorrectly and inadvertently charge the lines)even phone lines have enough electricity at times to harm you.
If you feel you must stay: Know the dangers and protect against them all and well. If you cannot, the chances of you becoming injured or killed increase greatly. With no communication, even a small injury or cut could have lethal complications. I am not even factoring in what may happen if you try to defend you home against looters. That's another story.
There are no mysterious unseen forces in a hurricane that kill you. We know what they are, but we don't always know how many of them will be used against us and when. Knowledge can be a protection, but sometimes, the wise thing is to leave. People are killed in Tropical storms because they were ignorant and/or stupid or in the wrong place at the wrong time, a hurricane just raises the amount of stupid people that will be adversely affected. I don't think anyone has a right to tell another person what to do, all I ask is don't be stupid.

Quoting chicagowatcher:
Sorry, just too funny. Stephanie Abrams, explaining a water vapor map describes it as:

"If the atmosphere is like a hamburger, we're now looking at the lettuce and tomato layer..."

Really gotta enjoy TWC...


Stephanie is just.. I don't know. She's.. unique.
Quoting Cotillion:
21.) Hurricane Beulah, 1967; 923mb. (160mph, Category Five.)
22.) Hurricane David, 1979; 924mb. (175mph, Category Five.)
23.) Hurricane #3, 1853; 924mb. (155mph, Category Four.)
24.) Cuban Hurricane of 1910; 924mb. (150mph, Category Four.)
25.) Indianola Hurricane of 1886; 925mb. (150mph, Category Four.)
26.) Hurricane Anita, 1977; 926mb. (175mph, Category Five.)
27.) Florida Keys Hurricane of 1919; 927mb. (150mph, Category Four.)
28.) Hurricane Esther, 1961; 927mb. (145mph, Category Four.)
29.) Hurricane Gabrielle, 1989; 927mb. (145mph, Category Four.)
30.) Hurricane Carmen, 1975; 928mb. (150mph, Category Four.)

31.) Hurricane Earl, 2010; 928mb. (145mph, Category Four.)
32.) Hurricane #8, 1880; 928mb. (140mph, Category Four.)
33.) Hurricane Felix, 2007; 929mb. (175mph, Category Five.)
34.) Okeechobee Hurricane of 1928; 929mb. (160mph, Category Five.)
35.) Hurricane Emily, 2005; 929mb. (160mph, Category Five.)
36.) Hurricane Inez, 1966; 929mb. (150mph, Category Four.)
37.) Hurricane Carol, 1953; 929mb. (150mph, Category Four.)
38.) Hurricane Felix, 1995; 929mb. (140mph, Category Four.)
39.) San Ciriaco Hurricane of 1899; 930mb. (150mph, Category Four.)
40.) Hurricane Gert, 1999; 930mb. (150mph, Category Four.)

That's the company Earl keeps.


Yeah. But there's a reason that recent storms dominate those lists. In earlier hurricanes, unless the eye happened to pass directly over a ship that survived to record the data, or directly over a meteorological station onshore, we never got the low pressure readings. And, in general, storms wouldn't pass over those observation points at the precise moment of their peak intensity.

So it's reasonable to rank Early among the worst storms of the last half-century. Going further back just distorts the picture.
Quoting chicagowatcher:
Sorry, just too funny. Stephanie Abrams, explaining a water vapor map describes it as:

"If the atmosphere is like a hamburger, we're now looking at the lettuce and tomato layer..."

Really gotta enjoy TWC...


Looks good in those tight jeans,,,lol
To everyone in the areas that may be affected by Earl, be safe. I like hurricanes, but don't wish anything bad on anyone.
remember a hurricane can strip the land clean including all life so that nothing remains but the dirt and water
1089. angiest
Unfortunately this has to be said.

If you are staying, or come back to a home that has no power and are using a generator. For goodness' sake, please do not put the generator inside your house! I remember someone in Houston (maybe this happened more than once) killing their kids days after Ike because they had the generator inside so it or the gasoline wouldn't get stolen.
1091. hydrus
Quoting gwhite713:


I do sir. It was heart breaking. I drive a rig and delivered alot of relief supplies. The city has spirit rivaled by none. With no where near the population it once had, it still managed to come together, rebuild and produce a championship NFL team. Who else can boast this? =)
I dont need to add anything. You summed it up well..:)
1092. hydrus
Quoting gwhite713:


I do sir. It was heart breaking. I drive a rig and delivered alot of relief supplies. The city has spirit rivaled by none. With no where near the population it once had, it still managed to come together, rebuild and produce a championship NFL team. Who else can boast this? =)
I dont need to add anything. You summed it up well..:)
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:


Phew...very glad it's stopped moving west.
1094. Patrap
Skittles with Strong Coffee is not bkfst the Wife says's..

.so Im gona split to the Local Eatery for some grub.

BBL
Quoting KEEPEROFTHEGATE:
remember a hurricane can strip the land clean including all life so that nothing remains but the dirt and water


Sounds like something they should do with the Leafs :)
07L/MH/E/C4
MARK
30.95N/74.95W
more good news from Reuters...

Direct full hit to US shoreline is not forecast
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Earl's NW eyewall looks like it might be under the gun:



yup looking like it did early this morning
Quoting oracle28:


Phew...very glad it's stopped moving west.


Which way is it going now please?
In Currituck County, NC, Mandatory evac for guests? This may be the dumbest thing I have ever heard. I am soundside at a high elevation.... .. ... I understand oceanside... Now I get to sit in traffic as the storm hits... great idea.
Quoting oracle28:
more good news from Reuters...

Direct full hit to US shoreline is not forecast


That is good.


Look at the bend in that ridge to the WNW of the high that earl produced that isnt avery good sign you think? may cause a more WNW motion or am i looking at that wrong?
1106. breald
Quoting tkeith:
1025. LADobeLady 9:03 AM CDT on September 02, 2010

Both of my dogs have chips LADobe...They are the first thing I load in the car. I DONT ride out Hurricanes.

I watch them from Arkansas (while listening to banjo music)...lol



Me to Keith. I would NEVER leave them behind.
Quoting oracle28:
more good news from Reuters...

Direct full hit to US shoreline is not forecast
Um, right. Reuters read the 8AM update, looked at the map, and posted it to the wire.

If you're reading this blog, you know more than Reuters.
Dry air on western side again I think.


The eyewall still looks mostly in tact, but the first feeder band is completely eroded from what I can tell.
1112. tkeith
1099. DestinJeff 9:23 AM CDT on September 02, 2010

Correct me if I'm wrong Jeff, but a due north track still means a glancing blow from a cat4...

still needs the easterly component to to miss the OBX.
unfortunately, we are all watching this unfold and all the begging and pleading to people to leave will convince some but not all. the reality is; if they have never been thru this they really don't know what to expect and the danger of the situation they are in. That "it wont happen here mentality" has bitten many in the rear and pocket book. I sincerely am praying for the folks that think they got no worries!
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


Southeast..


*POOF*
north-northwest
1116. aimetti
is the trough pushing north?
1117. ncstorm
Okay now they are saying here locally that inland counties like cumberland, bladen, sampson will also feel ts force winds who are not under any watches or warnings..this is not looking good at all..
Quoting texascoastres:
unfortunately, we are all watching this unfold and all the begging and pleading to people to leave will convince some but not all. the reality is; if they have never been thru this they really don't know what to expect and the danger of the situation they are in. That "it wont happen here mentality" has bitten many in the rear and pocket book. I sincerely am praying for the folks that think they got no worries!


My grandmother and uncle are both refusing to leave their homes that sit on the Pamlico Sound. They've been through this before and say they'll go through it again. I hope I'm not attending any funerals next week.
Love CNN's headline on the front page of its site: Earl gets stronger, may near U.S. coast tonight

Really? D'oh.
Quoting ncstorm:
Okay now they are saying here locally that inland counties like cumberland, bladen, sampson will also feel ts force winds who are not under any watches or warnings..this is not looking good at all..


I have been wondering how long it would take them to put up inland TS warnings.


Water Vapor Link

Link
Quoting LongIslandXpress38:


Southeast..

Impressive answer, did you think of that all by yourself?
Thanks anyway
Quoting FLdewey:
Children

During a disaster, your family may have to leave your home and daily routine. Children may become anxious, confused, or frightened. It is important to give children guidance that will help them reduce their fears.

Children depend on daily routines: They wake up, eat breakfast, go to school, play with friends. When emergencies or disasters interrupt this routine, children may become anxious.

In a disaster, they'll look to you and other adults for help. How you react to an emergency gives them clues on how to act. If you react with alarm, a child may become more scared. They see our fear as proof that the danger is real. If you seem overcome with a sense of loss, a child may feel their losses more strongly.

Children's fears also may stem from their imagination, and you should take these feelings seriously. A child who feels afraid is afraid. Your words and actions can provide reassurance. When talking with your child, be sure to present a realistic picture that is both honest and manageable.

Feelings of fear are healthy and natural for adults and children. But as an adult, you need to keep control of the situation. When you're sure that danger has passed, concentrate on your child's emotional needs by asking the child what's uppermost in his or her mind. Having children participate in the family's recovery activities will help them feel that their life will return to "normal." Your response during this time may have a lasting impact.

Contact your local Red Cross for assistance with disaster related mental health assistance. Having served many years as an American Red Cross Disaster Mental Health Worker I know the strain a diaster can take on families. Stick together!
(tear) you are so right. i remember after Katrina sitting in a hotel in sardis ms. with my 4yr. old and one on the way trying to pretend everything was cool. while the fam. went to a church to eat i stayed back cuz i needed a moment alone. i got in the shower and started to cry my eyes out. that was the 1st. time i was left alone with my thoughts, and i crashed. then my daughter comes walking in to potty. i put my face in the shower to hide it, but she knew. we hugged and cried, but didn't say a word. some people just don't know that it's not just death, and destroyed property you have to get through. the emotional damage is much worse. its long lasting. i think permanent. 5yrs. later we are still recovering from all the things that were destroyed.
1126. CJ5
I am starting to be convinced that the OBX will get a glancing strike at best. Other than wishing, there is not much by way of steering that is going to push him further W. He has a few wobbles left and maybe a slight drift to the W but in the end he will start to drift NNE then NE. That doesn't mean there should not be concern for damage.
There will be a broadcast tonight on Hurricane Hollow's Barometer Bob internet radio show with call ins and a chat room tonight at 8 pm EST/7 pm CST. Bob answers questions posted on the moderated chat. Just go to Link
1128. h0db
Quoting DestinJeff:
Ok here is the 12Z GFS 300mb stream analysis showing where the NNW motion is coming from....the high to his east, with bias to the left due to the weakness to the west.

still must get the Sw flow out in front of the trough nearer the coast to impart any easterly component in Earl.

OBX is along at about 75.5W (roughly).



75.27W to be exact-er.
Wow - just logged in to see what was up, and it looks like Earl has been right on the NHC forecast track. I found it revealing yesterday that when someone posed the question "which coordinate will Earl reach first, 30N or 75W", five responses said "75W" and one said "30N-75W at the same time". Now it looks highly likely that it will see 31N before it gets to 75W. I have been lurking for 2 or 3 years now, and I have never seen the doomcasters so empowered. THE NHC has been 100% correct on its track since PR. Let's hope the guys and gals with the PhDs in meteorology keep up the good work. And this is coming from a Houstonian, who saw the reality of a busted NHC forecast with Ike.
1132. ncstorm
Quoting CaneWarning:


I have been wondering how long it would take them to put up inland TS warnings.


they havent..thats the point..these people think they are okay

Shots I just took out in my backyard.

Southeast VA here, clouds definitely from the Hurricane...

[edit: images did not work, i'll try something else in a sec...]
Looks like a dry air issue:

ive argued on here in the past reasons to not leave. they dont let ya back in etc. i stayed on marco for wilma. but i have seen what andrew did. it was like a war zone. a night many people never want to relive. earl is a monster one jog left when it is near will be a disaster. by all means if your in earls path evacuate. i would not stick around for this one.
Quoting CaneWarning:


I have been wondering how long it would take them to put up inland TS warnings.

Surprised it took this long. The inbound HH just switched on its SFMR, and is registering borderline TS-force winds fully 120 miles to the northwest of the center. Even if Earl passes well offshore, that's enough to carry an awfully long way inland.
1137. IKE
1415 visible...

1117:

HURRICANE force sustained winds extend out 90 miles...

I'm pretty sure that's as wide as 2 average counties.

So for example, if the very center makes a tangential landfall in the outer banks, you will have 74mph winds sustained 90 miles inland.

If the center makes a head-on collision at or west of the outer banks, it will be much, much worse than that...
Quoting CloudGatherer:


Yeah. But there's a reason that recent storms dominate those lists. In earlier hurricanes, unless the eye happened to pass directly over a ship that survived to record the data, or directly over a meteorological station onshore, we never got the low pressure readings. And, in general, storms wouldn't pass over those observation points at the precise moment of their peak intensity.

So it's reasonable to rank Early among the worst storms of the last half-century. Going further back just distorts the picture.


Yes. Surface pressures were still difficult to attain exactly until the mid 70s. Even now, it's not perfect.

You take out the data before 1975 or so, and Earl would be around 15th.

If you say half-century - so 1960 - 7 or 8 would go. More if you include Hattie and Esther, which were just on the cusp.

It's just a list based on what we know/can have a good guess at (which is history anyway).






Here they are... just taken outside. Just north of Virginia Beach.
1141. breald
The NHC was just on TWC and said they are concerned because they have not seen that northern turn yet and they cannot rule out the storm riding the western edge of the cone which would be devastating to OBX and Southeastern New England.
Hurricane specialist on the TWC just said to exspect a direct hit if it doesnt turn. Which it hasnt yet as the trough is not moving fast enough or strong enough to do so.
Quoting blsealevel:


Look at the bend in that ridge to the WNW of the high that earl produced that isnt avery good sign you think? may cause a more WNW motion or am i looking at that wrong?


well it has taken another good jog to the left so it really just comes down to when Earl's forward motion slows down to actually feel the trof....the report on reuters is inaccurate...the current NHC forecast will be updated very soon...at this time Id say . than 10% chance of a Outer Banks landfall but what happens afterwards is questionable because of that recurvature...
1144. angiest
Quoting SkinnyKnockdown:
Wow - just logged in to see what was up, and it looks like Earl has been right on the NHC forecast track. I found it revealing yesterday that when someone posed the question "which coordinate will Earl reach first, 30N or 75W", five responses said "75W" and one said "30N-75W at the same time". Now it looks highly likely that it will see 31N before it gets to 75W. I have been lurking for 2 or 3 years now, and I have never seen the doomcasters so empowered. THE NHC has been 100% correct on its track since PR. Let's hope the guys and gals with the PhDs in meteorology keep up the good work. And this is coming from a Houstonian, who saw the reality of a busted NHC forecast with Ike.


The key is the since PR part. The forecast before that was almost as bad as Ike's forecast before he passed Cuba.
Quoting 1900hurricane:
Looks like a dry air issue:



Yeah we shall see if it can flush it out.
1146. hydrus
Earl will weaken a bit if this trend continues.
CanesWarning

My ex said that and fortunately we talked him in to leaving at the last minute. He had to rebuild the 1st floor of his 3200 sq ft house in ShoreAcres, Tx. Now his attitude is " if one is coming, we are leaving. Its not worth it. I hope your grandmother and uncle are going to be ok. I do know the feeling! I also have a grandmother and uncle in La of the CoonA-- breed that say the same thing. Please no one from La take offense, not intention. Being raised in La we tend to have a independent mind and try to take care of everyone else.
1148. angiest
Quoting aasmith26:






Here they are... just taken outside. Just north of Virginia Beach.


Those are cool pics.
1900hurricane

Earl been having dry air problems at times.
Quoting aasmith26:






Here they are... just taken outside. Just north of Virginia Beach.
Very impressive. That's the upper level cirrus outflow of a tropical cyclone. You can see it quite well on visible satellite imagery.

Quoting DestinJeff:


OBX I think is slightly west of 75W, but the western side of the eye I think would still nip them if Earl folowed 75W on up.

I think he will make it beyond 75W, and the turn to an easterly component will not come until far too close to OBX for it to be effective in mitigating impacts there.


Using my fancy dandy little line drawer... I make it getting as close as 40 miles off shore to someplace called Buxton?
Brain is now up live broadcasting. Go to my blog for the link.
Quoting MiamiHurricanes09:
Very impressive. That's the upper level cirrus outflow of a tropical cyclone. You can see it quite well on visible satellite imagery.



My mom was like come look at the clouds! They are very cool!
1154. hydrus
Quoting aasmith26:






Here they are... just taken outside. Just north of Virginia Beach.
Very cool pics..Thank you for them.
1155. IKE
Western side is taking a hit...

Quoting h0db:


75.27W to be exact-er.

I thought it was still east of 75W?
IKE - I appreciate your image posts because they are unique/informative/important, etc. Thanks
Quoting hydrus:
Very cool pics..Thank you for them.


No problem, if the storm doesn't hamper me from putting more up as I can take them i'd be more than happy to post!
how come the HWRF is so far off on intensity? is it just a crappy model and i don't know any better?

it has it going by the carolinas with barely any cat 2 winds
Quoting RecordSeason:
Dry air on western side again I think.


The eyewall still looks mostly in tact, but the first feeder band is completely eroded from what I can tell.


There is going to be a very sharp moisture gradient due to the subsidence on the west side of Earl. In fact, I don't think the rain shield will make it much further west than the OBX and most of the east coast is going to remain rain free, with maybe the exception of northern New England. Rip currents, rough seas, and some beach erosion will be what Earl will be known for in the end.
Buxton is where Brain is broadcasting from.
Quoting ElConando:


Yeah we shall see if it can flush it out.
Luckily it is eroding the western quadrant.
Quoting Radioman300900:
Hurricane specialist on the TWC just said to exspect a direct hit if it doesnt turn. Which it hasnt yet as the trough is not moving fast enough or strong enough to do so.
I don't understand. The storm wasn't supposed to turn yet according to the models. Why are people worried? Isn't it doing exactly what we expected it to do 3 days ago? It's going to get close to the OBX, scrape it, and go out to see, possibly scraping cape cod and heading up to Nova Scotia. What's will all this doomsday speak?
1165. IKE
Quoting UnobtrusiveTroll10:
IKE - I appreciate your image posts because they are unique/informative/important, etc. Thanks


You're welcome:)
Quoting hydrus:
Earl will weaken a bit if this trend continues.


At this point I doubt it really matters.
HH is doing an inbound run




11:00 AM AST Thu Sep 2
Location: 24.4°N 65.8°W
Max sustained: 50 mph
Moving: NNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 1002 mb

...FIONA TURNS TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST...TROPICAL STORM WARNING
ISSUED FOR BERMUDA...
Quoting texascoastres:
CanesWarning

My ex said that and fortunately we talked him in to leaving at the last minute. He had to rebuild the 1st floor of his 3200 sq ft house in ShoreAcres, Tx. Now his attitude is " if one is coming, we are leaving. Its not worth it. I hope your grandmother and uncle are going to be ok. I do know the feeling! I also have a grandmother and uncle in La of the CoonA-- breed that say the same thing.


They never have left before, so let's hope they get lucky again this time too! Their houses are both built up off the ground, so they might both lose their cars. I'm more worried about the wind with this one. I think they can take up to 15 ft of water before they start to flood really. I haven't seen anything that says they'll get that much water on the sound side.
07L/MH/E/C4
MARK
30.95N/74.95W


the many faces of earl
Gaston now a TD:


000
WTNT44 KNHC 021438
TCDAT4
TROPICAL DEPRESSION GASTON DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092010
1100 AM AST THU SEP 02 2010

METEOSAT-9 VISIBLE AND INFRARED IMAGES SHOW THAT DEEP CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH GASTON HAS DECREASED CONSIDERABLY AND IS LIMITED TO
A FRAGMENTED BAND OVER THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CIRCULATION. THE PIRATA PREDICTION AND RESEARCH BUOY 13008 LOCATED
ABOUT 80 N MI NORTH-NORTHEAST OF THE CENTER HAS BEEN ONLY AVERAGING
AROUND 17 KT DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS. DVORAK SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES HAVE DECREASED TO 30 KT FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB. BASED ON
THESE DATA...GASTON IS LOWERED TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION STATUS.
ALTHOUGH THE UPPER WIND PATTERN IS FORECAST TO BE CONDUCIVE FOR
STRENGTHENING...THE RATHER DRY AND STABLE THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT
DOMINATING THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC SHOULD ONLY PERMIT SLOW
INTENSIFICATION. A NATIONAL SCIENCE FOUNDATION G-V AIRCRAFT IS
CURRENTLY ENROUTE ON A PREDICT RESEARCH MISSION TO SAMPLE THE
SURROUNDING ENVIRONMENT. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST FOLLOWS
THE ICON CONSENSUS MODEL...AND IS CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM
MODELS AT DAYS 4 AND 5.

GASTON IS MOVING A LITTLE SLOWER AND TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY...AROUND 290/6...IN RESPONSE TO A MID- TO UPPER-LEVEL HIGH
AMPLITUDE TROUGH SITUATED ALONG 38W AND TO THE NORTH OF THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE LARGE-SCALE MODELS AGREE ON A CONTINUED
SLOW WEST-NORTHWESTWARD MOTION WITHIN THE WEAK EASTERLY STEERING
FLOW INFLUENCED BY THE AFOREMENTIONED TROUGH THROUGH ABOUT 36
HOURS. AFTERWARDS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL BUILD EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC
THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD WHICH WOULD INFLUENCE GASTON TO MOVE
GENERALLY WESTWARD AT A SLIGHTLY QUICKER PACE. THE NHC OFFICIAL
FORECAST IS A LITTLE TO THE RIGHT OF THE PREVIOUS TRACK AND IS BASED
ON A COMPROMISE OF ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL 02/1500Z 14.0N 38.9W 30 KT
12HR VT 03/0000Z 14.1N 39.7W 30 KT
24HR VT 03/1200Z 14.3N 40.7W 35 KT
36HR VT 04/0000Z 14.5N 42.0W 45 KT
48HR VT 04/1200Z 14.7N 43.3W 50 KT
72HR VT 05/1200Z 15.0N 46.5W 60 KT
96HR VT 06/1200Z 15.5N 51.0W 70 KT
120HR VT 07/1200Z 16.0N 56.0W 85 KT

$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/PASCH
Quoting DestinJeff:


OBX I think is slightly west of 75W, but the western side of the eye I think would still nip them if Earl folowed 75W on up.

I think he will make it beyond 75W, and the turn to an easterly component will not come until far too close to OBX for it to be effective in mitigating impacts there.


Here, check this out Jeff:

Quoting CloudGatherer:

Surprised it took this long. The inbound HH just switched on its SFMR, and is registering borderline TS-force winds fully 120 miles to the northwest of the center. Even if Earl passes well offshore, that's enough to carry an awfully long way inland.


I think part of the reason that they're holding off on the inland Tropical Storm Wind Warnings is that dryer, more stable air will remain in away place from the water.

Less precip/bands to bring the stronger winds down to the ground the higher stability air makes it much harder for the higher winds aloft to make it to the surface!
1174. tkeith
Quoting aasmith26:


No problem, if the storm doesn't hamper me from putting more up as I can take them i'd be more than happy to post!
Please do. These are very good.
I don't know what this means to the steering of Earl. I know that midwest trough is just one piece of the puzzle but has been mentioned quite a bit as a major factor. This is from the Buffalo NY forecast discussion this morning:

THE WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE
TODAY WITH LITTLE SUCCESS. HURRICANE EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND FROM THE PERSISTENT RIDGE...AND
ALSO FROM THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW FROM EARL WILL ACT TO REPEL
AND WEAKEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH...EFFECTIVELY DISSIPATING IT LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.
Quoting TampaSpin:
Brain is now up live broadcasting. Go to my blog for the link.

Pinky and the Brain?
1177. hydrus
Quoting ElConando:


At this point I doubt it really matters.
As long as there are no surprises.
Wow Earl is huge...winds still above 140+ and it took a westward nudge now stair stepping some back towards NC. Not good.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:
1900hurricane

Earl been having dry air problems at times.


It will be very interesting to see how Earl deals with that dry air. He absorbed the last one without too much issue, but he's going to skirt alot of coastline before he gets to Maine.

Visible sat still looks pretty intact, but he's looking real thin on the IR...
1164:


Yes, Earl has actually ended up relatively close to where they said he was going to be.


the problem is, the trough that was "supposed" to pick Earl up is NOT where it is "supposed" to be, which means Earl probably isn't going to start turning when he was "supposed" to start turning.
Quoting Patrap:
Vaccarella Family - Hurricane Katrina

12 Miles East of Downtown NOLA.





Amazing video. Thanks for sharing. After watching this video, if you are still not convinced you should leave when you are "advised to" then consider yourself "warned". Those on the coast in the path of Earl - you are in all our thoughts and prayers!
Quoting frecklespugsley:
I don't understand. The storm wasn't supposed to turn yet according to the models. Why are people worried? Isn't it doing exactly what we expected it to do 3 days ago? It's going to get close to the OBX, scrape it, and go out to see, possibly scraping cape cod and heading up to Nova Scotia. What's will all this doomsday speak?
because many here have wittnessed what a storm like this can do
I live in Yorktown, Va. and our local mets are just calling for 30mph winds with 45 gusts tonight after midnight. With a cat. 4 H, I would think the winds would be more. But in any case I'm prepared. Looks like the grocery stores are packed, people are buying up all the bread, milk and bottled water. I went on Monday, to beat the crowds.
1186. Engine2
Quoting weatherspotter1923:
I don't know what this means to the steering of Earl. I know that midwest trough is just one piece of the puzzle but has been mentioned quite a bit as a major factor. This is from the Buffalo NY forecast discussion this morning:

THE WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE
TODAY WITH LITTLE SUCCESS. HURRICANE EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND FROM THE PERSISTENT RIDGE...AND
ALSO FROM THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW FROM EARL WILL ACT TO REPEL
AND WEAKEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH...EFFECTIVELY DISSIPATING IT LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.


????
I am new to the blog, however have been following your site for couple years now. First let me start by saying, "Good Luck" to those in the path of this historic storm. We here in Martin County, ie South Fla have dodged an epic event. However from reading all the blogs, I can see we are not out of the woods yet. I have been thru Gloria in 85, Bob in 91, Francis 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, TS Fay 09. How far past Nov 1st is 2010 season projected to go?
1189. h0db
Quoting philliesrock:

I thought it was still east of 75W?


Sorry for the misunderstanding--75.27W is the longitude of the eastern extremity of the Outer Banks. Earl is slightly east of 75W at present.
Quoting DestinJeff:
They way I figure ... the west of North motion is coming from the slight ridging over top.

East of north will come from the trough.

As long as we see West of North, that mean the high pressure to the east is still influencing the motion.

Seeing DUE NORTH will be a great sign, sooner rather than later.


It's too late for OBX, they will be a midnight snack for Earl. But not the main course, even if he goes due north from here (where he is now (75+ W).
Quoting floridaT:
because many here have wittnessed what a storm like this can do
But don't let your fears affect your rationality.
Quoting weatherspotter1923:
I don't know what this means to the steering of Earl. I know that midwest trough is just one piece of the puzzle but has been mentioned quite a bit as a major factor. This is from the Buffalo NY forecast discussion this morning:

THE WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL TRY TO PUSH INTO THE RIDGE
TODAY WITH LITTLE SUCCESS. HURRICANE EARL WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE UP
THE EASTERN SEABOARD TODAY AROUND THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE
ATLANTIC SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE. DEEP LAYER SUBSIDENCE OVER MUCH OF THE
MID ATLANTIC STATES AND NEW ENGLAND FROM THE PERSISTENT RIDGE...AND
ALSO FROM THE UPPER TROPOSPHERIC OUTFLOW FROM EARL WILL ACT TO REPEL
AND WEAKEN THE APPROACHING TROUGH...EFFECTIVELY DISSIPATING IT LATER
TODAY AND TONIGHT.



I figured that was coming I am in Illinois and the southern part of the front is still not through here yet.
1193. hydrus
Quoting Taylor2004:
I am new to the blog, however have been following your site for couple years now. First let me start by saying, "Good Luck" to those in the path of this historic storm. We here in Martin County, ie South Fla have dodged an epic event. However from reading all the blogs, I can see we are not out of the woods yet. I have been thru Gloria in 85, Bob in 91, Francis 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, TS Fay 09. How far past Nov 1st is 2010 season projected to go?
December..That can change of course.
Hurricane Earl is photographed by astronaut Douglas Wheelock aboard the International Space Station on Tuesday, Aug. 31, 2010. Credit: Astro_Wheels/NASA [Full Story]
Why is Earl not in super rapid scan yet?
Quoting RecordSeason:
1164:


Yes, Earl has actually ended up relatively close to where they said he was going to be.


the problem is, the trough that was "supposed" to pick Earl up is NOT where it is "supposed" to be, which means Earl probably isn't going to start turning when he was "supposed" to start turning.


I was just about to say the same thing. The trof isnt picking up Earl as quick as the past forecast suggest...the trof is very very slow almost stationary...

The dry air aloft to the NW of Earl - some suggested that would be a "rain barrier" which is really a red hearing. If anything it would help weaken Earl some but even at the point of a hurricane 3, the impact will be phenomenal.

The storm surge and hurricane /tropical force winds are really extending outwards a few hundred miles.

Estimated power outages are at 5 million.
Quoting frecklespugsley:
But don't let your fears affect your rationality.
ok but make sure ya write your ssn on your chest so they know who ya are
It's Official:

President Declares Emergency For North Carolina
Release Date: September 2, 2010
Release Number: HQ-10-168

» More Information on North Carolina Hurricane Earl


WASHINGTON, D.C. -- The head of the U.S. Department of Homeland Security’s Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) Craig Fugate announced today that Federal aid is available to supplement state and local response efforts due to the emergency conditions resulting from Hurricane Earl beginning on September 1, 2010, and continuing.

The President's action authorizes the Department of Homeland Security, Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA), to coordinate all disaster relief efforts which have the purpose of alleviating the hardship and suffering caused by the emergency on the local population, and to provide appropriate assistance for required emergency measures, authorized under Title V of the Stafford Act, to save lives and to protect property and public health and safety, and to lessen or avert the threat of a catastrophe in Beaufort, Bertie, Camden, Chowan, Columbus, Craven, Currituck, Dare, Gates, Hyde, New Hanover, Onslow, Pamlico, Pasquotank, Perquimans, Pitt, Tyrrell, and Washington Counties.

Specifically, FEMA is authorized to identify, mobilize, and provide at its discretion, equipment and resources necessary to alleviate the impacts of the emergency. Emergency protective measures, including direct Federal assistance, will be provided at 75 percent Federal funding.

and blah blah blah blah **snip**

1200. Engine2
So the dissipation of the trough that is suppose to steer Earl east means what? Another western shift in the models?
Sometimes that fear is what motivates people to leave.. Fear of the unknown is better off less tested!
I'm not surprised Gaston was lowered to a tropical depression due to the lack of well-organized convection. It should be able to re-intensify into a tropical storm soon though.
1188:

Saving grace was the fact the 1016mb surface line finally broke to the east in the early morning hours.

If it had held there and broke west as it was trying to do most of yesterday, we'd still be dealing with NW motion on Earl.
Quoting LADobeLady:


This is the last thing we need on this blog right now. If you want to talk about weather bimbos do it on your own blog.



I don't think Stephanie Abrams would appreciate you calling her a bimbo.

Anyways, have there been any links to beach cams posted yet? I found this site with a streaming cam on it Link
Looks to really be moving more north, will be east of the next TFP
Quoting texascoastres:
Sometimes that fear is what motivates people to leave.. Fear of the unknown is better off less tested!


Fear and panic shouldn't enter into your thoughts... You should have a plan in place and start executing it now. The only folks who panic are those who haven't prepared.
Quoting floridaT:
ok but make sure ya write your ssn on your chest so they know who ya are
Haha. If I live in the OBX I would evacuate. But I don't. I live in MD. Even if Earl tracks west against the forecast the worst it could do would be to move up the Chesapeake Bay. Does anyone really think Earl is going to do anything but go along the most western forecast that we already knew about days ago? Some people are acting like Earl is about to turn due west.


Socorro Island
1209. tkeith
Quoting frecklespugsley:
But don't let your fears affect your rationality.
all I can say about fear is that most fools I've known have none...

live and learn friend...experience is a great teacher.
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


Socorro Island


...umm. really?
Quoting h0db:


Sorry for the misunderstanding--75.27W is the longitude of the eastern extremity of the Outer Banks. Earl is slightly east of 75W at present.


-- Half of Earl is east of 75W.
1212. ncstorm
How do you post pics? I have some pics of Earl clouds but it only gives me the option to link but from an URL..also with the images..
Quoting RecordSeason:
1188:

Saving grace was the fact the 1016mb surface line finally broke to the east in the early morning hours.

If it had held there and broke west as it was trying to do most of yesterday, we'd still be dealing with NW motion on Earl.


While I agree with you that the west component is "almost" gone. Its a bit early to use terms such as "the saving grace was" We are only a few wobbles away from a landfall on the NC coastline.
Quoting largeeyes:
Looks to really be moving more north, will be east of the next TFP


Largeeye. U might want 2 get some lareger contacts
1215. FLdewey
Plenty of hotel rooms inland in places like Goldsboro. Get some good BBQ and spend a night or two in a nice hotel.

Dare County, NC has issued a mandatory evacuation for all visitors throughout the entire county. Local officials made this declaration at 6 AM this morning as Hurricane Earl showed some signs of strengthening out in the Atlantic.

Red Cross officials are urging people to heed all evacuation notices without delay. The organization is preparing to open shelters as needed.
Dare County evacuees use Routes Hwy 12 to Hwy 64W or 158N.


Quoting frecklespugsley:
I don't understand. The storm wasn't supposed to turn yet according to the models. Why are people worried? Isn't it doing exactly what we expected it to do 3 days ago? It's going to get close to the OBX, scrape it, and go out to see, possibly scraping cape cod and heading up to Nova Scotia. What's will all this doomsday speak?

Because even a scrape where we live can cause large amounts of flooding to low lying areas especially Norfolk that already has subsidence problems and in Virginia Beach, strong tropical force winds can cause damage and power outages so we care.
Quoting ncstorm:
How do you post pics? I have some pics of Earl clouds but it only gives me the option to link but from an URL..also with the images..


use imageshack.us then copy the link!
Quoting largeeyes:
Looks to really be moving more north, will be east of the next TFP



You might want to let the NHC know that because the guy that was on TWC a little bit ago sounded a whole lot less confident in the turn.
1220. Ryuujin
And it's still quite wobbly, so one jog NW is all that is needed to spell a great deal of danger for the outerbanks. Which may still happen.
DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS...
Could someone post the picture of Africa with the waves over it please, or provide a link for it? Thanks
Quoting aasmith26:


...umm. really?


https://152.80.49.110/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc10/EPAC/94E.INVEST/ssmi/ir1kmcolor/20100902.1430.goe s-11.ircolor.94E.INVEST.30kts.1003mb.18.2N.107.6W.100pc.jpg

yup 30 knots all it needs is given Tropical Depression 10-E name from the NHC
DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS...

11:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 2
Location: 30.9°N 74.8°W
Max sustained: 140 mph
Moving: N at 18 mph
Min pressure: 932 mb
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 74.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTH OR 355 DEGREES AT 16 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 932 MB
EYE DIAMETER 25 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 120 KT WITH GUSTS TO 145 KT.
1226. IKE
8:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 2
Location: 30.1°N 74.8°W
Max sustained: 145 mph
Moving: NNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 932 mb

....................................

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS...
11:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 2
Location: 30.9°N 74.8°W
Max sustained: 140 mph
Moving: N at 18 mph
Min pressure: 932 mb
Quoting ncstorm:
How do you post pics? I have some pics of Earl clouds but it only gives me the option to link but from an URL..also with the images..Put em on photobucket and use the url in the image button. You can't post a pic directly from your computer.
1229. JeffM
000
WTNT32 KNHC 021139
TCPAT2
BULLETIN
HURRICANE EARL INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 32A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL072010
800 AM EDT THU SEP 02 2010

...INTENSE HURRICANE EARL CONTINUES ON A NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
TRACK...EXPECTED TO PASS NEAR THE OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...30.1N 74.8W
ABOUT 355 MI...575 KM S OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
ABOUT 820 MI...1315 KM SSW OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...145 MPH...230 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...932 MB...27.52 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

NONE.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WESTPORT TO PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK FROM FIRE ISLAND INLET NORTHWARD
AND EASTWARD TO PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* THE COAST OF LONG ISLAND NEW YORK WEST OF FIRE ISLAND INLET AND
PORT JEFFERSON HARBOR.
* NORTH OF PLYMOUTH MASSACHUSETTS TO EASTPORT MAINE.
* THE COAST OF NOVA SCOTIA FROM PORT MAITLAND TO MEDWAY HARBOUR.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA IN THE UNITED
STATES...INCLUDING POSSIBLE INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE
MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
FORECAST OFFICE. FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA OUTSIDE
THE UNITED STATES...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY YOUR NATIONAL
METEOROLOGICAL SERVICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 800 AM EDT...1200 UTC...THE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED
NEAR LATITUDE 30.1 NORTH...LONGITUDE 74.8 WEST. EARL IS MOVING
TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST NEAR 18 MPH...30 KM/HR BUT A TURN TOWARD
THE NORTH IS EXPECTED SOON. A TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST AND
AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY. ON THE
FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER OF EARL WILL PASS NEAR THE NORTH
CAROLINA OUTER BANKS TONIGHT...AND BE VERY NEAR SOUTHEASTERN NEW
ENGLAND FRIDAY NIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN NEAR 145 MPH...230 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. EARL IS A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO START LATER TODAY...BUT EARL IS EXPECTED TO BE A MAJOR
HURRICANE WHEN IT PASSES NEAR THE OUTER BANKS.

HURRICANE-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 230
MILES...370 KM.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE ESTIMATED FROM THE HURRICANE HUNTER
DATA IS 932 MB...27.52 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THIS AFTERNOON. EVEN IF
THE CENTER OF EARL REMAINS OFFSHORE...HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO OCCUR ON THE OUTER BANKS BY THURSDAY NIGHT.
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM
VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO NEW JERSEY BY LATE THURSDAY NIGHT OR EARLY
FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA AND THE LOWER CHESAPEAKE BAY. ELSEWHERE WITHIN THE TROPICAL
STORM WARNING AREA...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH
AS 1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL
BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS. ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 2
INCHES ARE POSSIBLE FARTHER TO THE NORTH ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY. THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 AM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
Quoting ncstorm:
How do you post pics? I have some pics of Earl clouds but it only gives me the option to link but from an URL..also with the images..Put em on photobucket and use the url in the image button. You can't post a pic directly from your computer.
1231. IKE
He moved .8N and .0W. He's moving due north. Now start turning NNE Earl...please.
Quoting Barkeep1967:



I figured that was coming I am in Illinois and the southern part of the front is still not through here yet.


And I'm in the northern part of Illinois and have received almost 2" of rain today. ie, it aint moving east real fast and we're getting trained. Not seriously, but it illustrates the point, that the East coast (and my basement) needs it to start moving east a bit faster...
Quoting HadesGodWyvern:


https://152.80.49.110/tcweb/dynamic/products/tc10/EPAC/94E.INVEST/ssmi/ir1kmcolor/20100902.1430.goe s-11.ircolor.94E.INVEST.30kts.1003mb.18.2N.107.6W.100pc.jpg

yup 30 knots all it needs is given Tropical Depression 10-E name from the NHC


I don't think we're concerned about pacific storms at this point.
Has the 11am advisory come out yet?
1235. hydrus
Earl still tracking slightly west of due north. If you put the grid up, you Linkcan run a loop and see the track nicely...
AS ANTICIPATED...EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT
16 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...EARL IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHARP TURN
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE.


Looks like good news.
1237. hydrus
Earl still tracking slightly west of due north. If you put the grid up, you Link .can run a loop and see the track nicely...
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Has the 11am advisory come out yet?


No, they're being stubborn. ;-)
1239. Relix
AS ANTICIPATED...EARL HAS BEGUN TO MOVE NORTHWARD OR 355 DEGREES AT
16 KNOTS. SINCE THE STEERING PATTERN HAS NOT CHANGED...EARL IS
FORECAST TO CONTINUE NORTHWARD TODAY. IN ABOUT 24 HOURS...THE
HURRICANE SHOULD BE ENCOUNTERING THE BASE OF THE MID-LATITUDE
WESTERLIES AND EARL SHOULD THEN TURN MORE TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST
AND NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS SHARP TURN
HAS BEEN CONSISTENTLY INDICATED FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST AND BY THE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED TRACK GUIDANCE.
1240. angiest
Quoting Taylor2004:
I am new to the blog, however have been following your site for couple years now. First let me start by saying, "Good Luck" to those in the path of this historic storm. We here in Martin County, ie South Fla have dodged an epic event. However from reading all the blogs, I can see we are not out of the woods yet. I have been thru Gloria in 85, Bob in 91, Francis 04, Jeanne 04, Wilma 05, TS Fay 09. How far past Nov 1st is 2010 season projected to go?


The season ends on November 30th. It could well extend into December and conceivably be one of those rare seasons that don't end until January.
1242. IKE
1445 IR of Earl...still east of 75...

TampaTom
I agree no it shouldn't but reality is it does. I live on the gulf coast and dont need to be told to evac. My preps and plans are done. I just hope they are not needed. not trying to offend anyone. What ever means it takes to keep people safe and informed.
Jeff I see it, 75W is splitting the eye per latest SAT imagery. That tells me it is still heading a tiny bit W of N. Come on TROF!!!!
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT
TO WEST OF WESTPORT...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

Movement North @ 355 degrees!, just heard it on TWC.
Each wobble with a more westerly component has been preceded by a flattening or loss of some convection on the West side of the system. If there is another West left in Earl it is likely to occur in the next three hours of movement. The loss of convection can allow some dry intrusion but the core of the storm has consistently repelled these from the eye region. Earlier today MIMIC found a doubled eye wall in Earl so it is not out of the question that another EWRC has begun.
Quoting IKE:
8:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 2
Location: 30.1°N 74.8°W
Max sustained: 145 mph
Moving: NNW at 18 mph
Min pressure: 932 mb

....................................

...DANGEROUS HURRICANE EARL HEADING FOR THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA...HURRICANE WARNINGS ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS...
11:00 AM EDT Thu Sep 2
Location: 30.9°N 74.8°W
Max sustained: 140 mph
Moving: N at 18 mph
Min pressure: 932 mb


Ike, I know I give you heck sometimes (all in good fun) but now I really wish you and that darn ECMQWF was right...
1250. tkeith
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT
TO WEST OF WESTPORT...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.

It's headed your way Jason...
EWRC would be interesting...weaken it, but spread the winds out to more of the coast....
1252. Engine2
I'm not sure I understand what will push this east if the trough is forecasted not to be in play? Is it because he is strong and wants to move poleward?
Quoting texascoastres:
TampaTom
I agree no it shouldn't but reality is it does. I live on the gulf coast and dont need to be told to evac. My preps and plans are done. I just hope they are not needed. not trying to offend anyone. What ever means it takes to keep people safe and informed.


Gotcha... A healthy respect for these babies is definitely in order...
Quoting aasmith26:


No, they're being stubborn. ;-)


I think they are waiting for the HH to finish their run. They still haven't made it to the eye yet.

http://tropicalatlantic.com/recon/URNT15/KNHC/
Quoting LADobeLady:


This is the last thing we need on this blog right now. If you want to talk about weather bimbos do it on your own blog.


When you all where talking about not leaving dogs and animals behind. during Hurricane Ivan we left Satsuma and headed toward Miss and we had our dogs and cats, they where Ray Ray,Prissy,Sugarbutt,Lil Man,Burger,and Kiwi our cat with 12 kittens that was a interesting ride and then the only hotel we found at 3am didn't want animals so we had to sneak everyone of them in the room.When we went to leave we poked our head out and found out we wasn't the only ones doing that. But we love our babies also there was 8 people. We took the dually and my monte carlo SS. Like I said very interesting. And all the dogs where Boxers except burger. I hope i don't get in trouble for posting this.
sheri
1257. IKE
EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES.
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 30.1N 74.8W

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 30.9N 74.8W AT 02/1500Z

FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 33.5N 75.0W

FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 36.5N 73.5W

FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 40.0N 70.8W

1259. hydrus
Quoting aasmith26:


I don't think we're concerned about pacific storms at this point.
Hades posts all tropical weather occurring around the world. I assure you that the people here that study tropical meteorology appreciate ALL his posts. Whether there is a hurricane approaching the U.S. or not.
Quoting aasmith26:


No, they're being stubborn. ;-)


I think they are waiting for the HH to finish their run. They still haven't made it to the eye yet.
Link
Quoting IKE:
He moved .8N and .0W. He's moving due north. Now start turning NNE Earl...please.


Whew!!! Glad to see its official now!! Now everyone can start rooting for an east wobble here and there in the upcoming hours.
1262. MahFL
"THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND
FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER"

Oh crap.
Oh man, Earl moved west then .8 N and now heading west some more....its like a stair step
1264. katty5
earl is a strong cat 4 he can do what he wants to create his own path people...the bottom line is earl is a dangerous and a killer..
1265. ncstorm
Earl from my front door in Wilmington, NC

Link
Winds have lessened a touch.
.
Quoting KanKunKid:


-- Half of Earl is east of 75W.


The center of Earl is just east of 75W...movement in the last several hours has been almost due north...
1269. FLdewey
A mandatory evacuation has been issued for all visitors and residents of Ocracoke as of 5 AM on Wednesday, September 1.

The hurricane watch for this area has been upgraded to a hurricane warning for mainland Hyde and Outer Banks Hyde. Hurricane Earl is expected to impact the Outer Banks coast, including Ocracoke Island. It is a current Category 4 Hurricane with intensity of 145 mph winds. Seas may peak at 30 feet Thursday night and into Friday morning. We are expecting hurricane force (74 mph) sustained winds with gusts up to 90 mph in the Ocracoke area after midnight and possibly extending until dawn and tropical storm force wind gusts on the mainland. Overnight mainland Hyde county winds are expected to reach tropical storm force overnight with gusts up to 60 mph.

Winds will begin to be a serious threat to Ocracoke by 4 PM today.

There is a potential 1-3 foot storm surge for Swan Quarter and Engelhard and a 3-5 foot storm surge for Ocracoke. Rainfall amounts for Ocracoke Island are projected at 3-5”.

The NC Ferry system is operating on a first-come, first-serve basis for all vehicles open to Hatteras and Swan Quarter pending road conditions in those receiving counties. The Cedar Island ferry will not run again until the storm has passed. The Swan Quarter ferry will resumed service at 6 AM today and will likely cease operation at 9AM. The Hatteras ferry will run as long as weather allows. Schedules and toll collections are suspended during the evacuation order. All island residents and tourists must leave immediately. Evacuation routes may not be available after mid-morning on Thursday. Residents on Ocracoke and the mainland in mobile homes or substandard housing are
encouraged to seek proper shelter.

Emergency services, government agencies, commercial vendors delivering essential groceries and supplies, and permanent residential traffic as indicated by purple and green stickers will be allowed on the island via air and marine traffic. The State Highway Patrol shall restrict access without appropriate credentials. Before leaving, residents and guests in this area should take precautions such as moving cars and equipment to higher ground. Please pick up potential debris that could become unsecure during the storm.

People with medical needs and unique situations are urged to consider their options. All Hyde County public safety services will cease after winds reach 50 mph sustained. Pay attention to Highway 12 on Ocracoke and Hatteras islands as overwash may make the route impassable.
Quoting IKE:
He moved .8N and .0W. He's moving due north. Now start turning NNE Earl...please.


We need that push from the west....half of Earl's system is ready to impact OBX...a turn right would be very welcome, think push push push.
Quoting IKE:
He moved .8N and .0W. He's moving due north. Now start turning NNE Earl...please.
lets all hope for ne
Quoting MahFL:
"THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND
FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER"

Oh crap.

That is stunning!
Quoting IKE:
EARL PROBABLY HAS ALREADY
REACHED ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND IT SHOULD SOON BEGIN TO WEAKEN
GRADUALLY AS THE SHEAR INCREASES.


yeah to a major 3...and this isnt good news either...

"THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND
FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER"
1275. tkeith
Quoting hydrus:
Hades posts all tropical weather occurring around the world. I assure you that the people here that study tropical meteorology appreciate ALL his posts. Whether there is a hurricane approaching the U.S. or not.
WU is world wide and the good Doc M has many readers of this blog in that part of the world.

HGW is always on the watch for them, including the service men and women stationed in the Pacific.
1276. breald
Hurricane warnings up for southeastern MA.

To quote our senior chief "OUCH"
Jason what are you seeing?
Some of the discussions of track and intensity remind me of a couple of Good-ol-Boys down at the gas station, arguing whether Bubba hit the groundhog in the head or @$&. The sucka is still splattered all over the field.
1282. IKE
Western 2/3's of NC is cloud-free right now...

Quoting wayfaringstranger:
Oh man, Earl moved west then .8 N and now heading west some more....its like a stair step


Where do you see ANY western component to his movement?
1284. bassis
Quoting jason2010xxxx:
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NEW HAVEN CONNECTICUT
TO WEST OF WESTPORT...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND.



yeah, they just put us in Dover, NH in Tropical Storm Watch
I'm curious why there's no hurricane watches for Nova Scotia and New Brunswick.

Especially as it says it'll be a hurricane still, albeit just.

Hedging their bets?
The storms are bad enough without the not knowing if family members that stayed are ok. Yah, 30 hrs in evac traffic really stinks but so does the horror of wathcing this from a safe distance and not being able to communicate with the ones that chose to stay and may or maynot be there when you get back!
Looks like 940mb is the low now and a Cat 2 strength from the HH data.
Can someone post a animated map of the front vs Earl? I can't find one...don't know where to look.
Can someone post a animated map of the front vs Earl? I can't find one...don't know where to look.
They eye was here 30.867N 75.083W
1291. unruly
Quoting bassis:


yeah, they just put us in Dover, NH in Tropical Storm Watch
they did?? im in dover
1292. ncstorm
Quoting MahFL:
"THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND
FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER"

Oh crap.


well that would mean people as far inland as Raleigh may feel TS winds..does that mean that the hurricane force winds will expand as well too?
Quoting tkeith:
all I can say about fear is that most fools I've known have none...

live and learn friend...experience is a great teacher.


It is about respect. Having seen the devastation from storms such as Andrew, Katrina, Wilma, Ike, you have to respect what weather has the potential to do. I would rather leave and say, "well, that was a lot of work for nothing" than be sitting in my house watching the water rise because I had no respect for the havoc these storms can wreak. Be smart people
Quoting Floodman:


Where do you see ANY western component to his movement?


Five hour RAMSDIS loop shows ever so slight westerly component to movement but that is much less than previous five hours..what will the next five hours be? Your guess as good as mine...
1295. SQUAWK
Based on the HH path and wind barbs I make the eye centered at 75.03W and 30.56N
1297. hydrus
Quoting melwerle:
Can someone post a animated map of the front vs Earl? I can't find one...don't know where to look.
Try this one.....Link
1298. lakeEFX
I live in northeastern Ohio by Lake Erie, and our local forecast for this area on the NOAA site says that the trough isn't going to push south all day. It's to our northwest at this time, stuck over south Michigan and Indiana, to our west. It's not suppose to go through our area until tomorrow sometime. Maybe it'll make it to the east coast by Friday night, but it's going to have to pick up some speed.
Quoting melwerle:
Can someone post a animated map of the front vs Earl? I can't find one...don't know where to look.


Here's one, big picture version ... Link
1300. HarryMc
Quoting breald:
Hurricane warnings up for southeastern MA.

To quote our senior chief "OUCH"

Yea. The NHC said Westport around to Hull... that's in Boston Harbor I think.
Quoting Floodman:


Where do you see ANY western component to his movement?


Bingo...I think the NHC did a good job with Earl, and see no significant deviation in the short term.
1302. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


Where do you see ANY western component to his movement?
Morning Flood...I say it grazes the OBX, Direct hit on Cape Cod.
940mb and well to PORT of track and not going North... thats bad.






Link to this site

Link
1305. Ryuujin
Quoting ConchHondros:


Bingo...I think the NHC did a good job with Earl, and see no significant deviation in the short term.


Well I certainly see a wobble to the west again in the last frame. We'll see how that pans out.
It's good to see it going N. Now we need to see it go E to really stay off shore. Any W wobble is bad.
1307. RickWPB
Quoting melwerle:
Can someone post a animated map of the front vs Earl? I can't find one...don't know where to look.


You mean this one?

Link
Orca, it does seem he has weakened some though so at least there is that.
Link

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/eaus/flash-wv.html

watch the above vapor loop and its pretty wild it looks like a face turning its head and looking at earl from obove (look to right of earl) and it look like the face is attached to an arm coming off the top of the trough (run it in fast loop)
Thank you, Hydrus. That's just what I was looking for.
1311. NEwxguy
A hazy hot and humid day up here in Mass.,definitely feels tropical.
Quoting melwerle:
Can someone post a animated map of the front vs Earl? I can't find one...don't know where to look.



Here's the Easter Waper Vapor Loop
Quoting MahFL:
"THERE HAS BEEN NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN THE STRUCTURE OF EARL
DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. HOWEVER..MICROWAVE INAGERY SUGGEST THAT
AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT COULD OCCUR SOON...IN WHICH CASE THE WIND
FIELD WOULD BECOME LARGER"

Oh crap.


Ew. Eyewall replacement...those are dreaded words for sure. Yikes.
1314. Ryuujin
Quoting Orcasystems:
940mb and well to PORT of track and not going North... thats bad.






That's from the HH out there, right Orca?
Quoting Kristina40:
Orca, it does seem he has weakened some though so at least there is that.


Weakened yes.. EWRC maybe... its going to have little effect on the built up Power and SLOSH for OBX
This might save your friends and family some worries.

Press Release
9/1/2010 Contact: Chris Mackey
Raleigh (919) 733-5612
Evacuees Should Register with Red Cross %u2018Safe and Well%u2019 Website

The State Emergency Operations Center recommends that persons evacuating Ocracoke and Hatteras islands because of Hurricane Earl register with the American Red Cross %u201CSafe and Well%u201D program to ensure that friends and family know their plans.

The website is https://safeandwell.communityos.org/cms/.
Based on a couple of the recent satellite images, which showed the inner eyewall shrinking and having a big gap right to its left, combined with the following microwave image taken a few hours ago clearly showing two complete concentric eyewalls, I'm definitely thinking that an EWRC is starting to take place. It will be interesting to see how long it takes this time, and whether or not Earl can ward off the dry and and wind shear while this happens.



Quoting CaneWarning:
It's good to see it going N. Now we need to see it go E to really stay off shore. Any W wobble is bad.


The western side of the eye wall has hit a brick at 75W. If it stays due N then the center would miss the OBX by 30miles. If we can get that NNE movement going then NC could really be sparred the core of Earl
Thank you, Hydrus. That's just what I was looking for.
Quoting melwerle:
Can someone post a animated map of the front vs Earl? I can't find one...don't know where to look.


I can't seem to post it but here it is.
Another oil rig explosion in the Gulf south of Grand Isle per WWl Radio. Dozens hurt.
1323. snowboy
From the forecaster discussion for Buffalo, NY:

... The weak trough of low pressure will try to push into the ridge
today with little success. Hurricane Earl will continue to move up
the eastern Seaboard today around the western periphery of the
Atlantic sub-tropical ridge. Deep layer subsidence over much of the
Middle Atlantic States and New England from the persistent ridge...and
also from the upper tropospheric outflow from Earl will act to repel
and weaken the approaching trough...effectively dissipating it later
today and tonight...

Tonight the trough will continue to wash out...with the remnants
lifting back north away from the area in response to the approach of
hurricane Earl's upper level outflow.
1325. SQUAWK
Quoting Orcasystems:
940mb and well to PORT of track and not going North... thats bad.






Not really. He is right on or slightly east of the track.

Good morning everyone, Just wanted to let the folks on the East Coast know I'm keeping them in my prayers and I urge all to take Earl seriously and evacuate if told to do so. Don't panic and prepare...
1327. will40
Hi well i got out of dodge they evacuated the island i live on. I am at a high school set up as a shelter on the mainland
Quoting hydrus:
Morning Flood...I say it grazes the OBX, Direct hit on Cape Cod.


IF it continues noirth, yes, it has to grze, especially with an EWRC coing...the expansion of the wind field will cause some further interaction, but as for Cape Cod, that's a wait and see proposition...how far east will he tend as the trof moves into play?
what is local media coverage like in the watch and warning areas? Are they doing non stop coverage like they do in South Florida? Mainstream media while giving it attention seems be awfully reserved, not the usual overhype you usually get.
Quoting jazzygal:
Another oil rig explosion in the Gulf south of Grand Isle per WWl Radio. Dozens hurt.


Oh God, no. Please tell me that is a mistake..
Quoting Orcasystems:
940mb and well to PORT of track and not going North... thats bad.






Looks like about 348 to me. Not due North yet and certainly no Eastward trend.
On the WU Wundermap satellite, its still moving just WEST of due North.
1333. P451
A hazy hot and humid day up here in Mass.,definitely feels tropical.


I can't even breathe here in NJ.

Air quality is horrendous!


Hope you got supplies. You may need them.

1334. xkcd
My grandmother is in Harwich, MA, south-mid Cape Cod, and I'm trying to decide whether to tell her to head off to the mainland tonight. I figure that if there's going to be an evacuation, she doesn't want to be on the highway Friday morning when everyone sees it coming and panics. She can drive herself, but she's inclined to stay -- she says that she sat through Bob just fine, and she's far enough inland to be safe from flooding. But she's in a small house in a tree-filled neighborhood by herself.

It looks like the winds are really concentrated to the east of the storm (as usual, though particularly so in this case) and the GFS has the mid-Cape experiencing mild TS-force winds at peak.

I'm going to call her in a few hours with my recommendation. She could head in to stay with relatives in Boston or get a hotel Thursday and Friday nights, but she doesn't really want to. Advice?
Quoting jazzygal:
Another oil rig explosion in the Gulf south of Grand Isle per WWl Radio. Dozens hurt.


Oh my! Say it ain't so. :o Will check it out. Thanks for the headsup.
1336. Bonedog
I think Earl just has it in for the east coast.

If he doesnt move west he adds an EWRC to braoden his field. This is going to be nasty for everyone from OBX to Newfie Land

I wonder if Mother Nature just has a sick sense of humor =/

1337. breald
Quoting jazzygal:
Another oil rig explosion in the Gulf south of Grand Isle per WWl Radio. Dozens hurt.


oh no.
Quoting breald:


oh no.


have found no evidence of this, anywhere on the web.
07L/MH/E/C4
MARK
30.98N/74.99W
APPROACHING COAST

1340. Dunkman
Hmm the HH finds the center at 75.1 v. 74.8 in the latest advisory.
Better safe than sorry, convince her to get out.
Quoting Kristina40:


Oh God, no. Please tell me that is a mistake..


from NOLA.com

The Coast Guard is responding to a report of a rig on fire "and people in the water'' in the Gulf of Mexico south of Vermillion Bay, authorities said.

Petty Officer Casey Ranel said the rig is around 80 miles south of Vermillion Bay and that a helicopter earlier today reported that it was in fire "and that there was smoke and there were people in the water.''
1
0
16Share

Five helicopters, two airplanes and four boats are en route from Coast Guard stations in New Orleans and Houston, Ranel said.

She said the rig, Vermillion Oil Rig 380, is owned by Mariner Energy, but that details were scarce.
you want hype?? Watch TWC,,they are really good at it.
oil rig near Vermillion Bay..
1345. MZT
Looking east from my office (umpteen floors up in Charlotte) it's still clear sky. Nothing building up yet, but I think that will be changing soon.
you want hype?? Watch TWC,,they are really good at it.
Quoting snowboy:
From the forecaster discussion for Buffalo, NY:

... The weak trough of low pressure will try to push into the ridge
today with little success. Hurricane Earl will continue to move up
the eastern Seaboard today around the western periphery of the
Atlantic sub-tropical ridge. Deep layer subsidence over much of the
Middle Atlantic States and New England from the persistent ridge...and
also from the upper tropospheric outflow from Earl will act to repel
and weaken the approaching trough...effectively dissipating it later
today and tonight...

Tonight the trough will continue to wash out...with the remnants
lifting back north away from the area in response to the approach of
hurricane Earl's upper level outflow.

Longtime lurker here in RI, but Earl is rousing me from slumber. Bob dropped a 30" diameter black locust tree on my roof in '91 so really don't want his cousin Earl to visit. What's up with the Buffalo NWS office? Why do they perceive the motion and effectiveness of the trough so differently from NHC? And if Buffalo is accurate, doesn't this potentailly mean Earl is much further left of the forecast track by the time it gets to New England? Thanks all.
Quoting aasmith26:


have found no evidence of this, anywhere on the web.


CNN just reported on it as well. It's true.
Cape Cod and the Islands.
Quoting jazzygal:
Another oil rig explosion in the Gulf south of Grand Isle per WWl Radio. Dozens hurt.


link?? info?? oh no
Quoting jazzygal:
Another oil rig explosion in the Gulf south of Grand Isle per WWl Radio. Dozens hurt.


link?? info?? oh no
Does anyone expect major damage for the outerbanks
Quoting Kristina40:


Oh God, no. Please tell me that is a mistake..


It is South of Vermillion Parish. See nola.com
1354. MahFL
The eye just got really tight.
1355. hydrus
Quoting Floodman:


IF it continues noirth, yes, it has to grze, especially with an EWRC coing...the expansion of the wind field will cause some further interaction, but as for Cape Cod, that's a wait and see proposition...how far east will he tend as the trof moves into play?
Dang, if this is not a close one, I dont know what is.
Quoting aasmith26:


have found no evidence of this, anywhere on the web.


Look harder, Link
Quoting jazzygal:
Another oil rig explosion in the Gulf south of Grand Isle per WWl Radio. Dozens hurt.


CNN reporting that there were 13 people on the rig. 12 are in the water and 1 is missing.
HurricaneEarl's heading had turned northward to due North
from its previous heading of 6.2degrees west of North
H.Earl's average speed moving between its last 2 reported positions was~18.3mph(~29.5km/h)

01Sep . 03pmGMT - - 25.1n72.1w - - 125mph - - 943mb - - NHC.Adv.#29
01Sep . 06pmGMT - - 25.7n72.7w - - 125mph - - 941mb - - #29A
H.Earl becomes Cat.4 again
01Sep . 09pmGMT - - 26.3n73.3w - - 135mph - - 941mb - - #30
02Sep . 12amGMT - - 27.2n73.5w - - 135mph - - 941mb - - #30A
02Sep . 03amGMT - - 27.8n73.8w - - 140mph - - 932mb - - #31
02Sep . 06amGMT - - 28.6n74.4w - - 140mph - - 932mb - - #31A
02Sep . 09amGMT - - 29.3n74.7w - - 145mph - - 928mb - - #32
02Sep . 12pmGMT - - 30.1n74.8w - - 145mph - - 932mb - - #32A
02Sep . 03pmGMT - - 30.9n74.8w - - 140mph - - 932mb - - #33

Copy&paste 25.1n72.1w, 25.7n72.7w, 26.3n73.3w, 27.2n73.5w, 27.8n73.8w-28.6n74.4w, 28.6n74.4w-29.3n74.7w, 29.3n74.7w-30.1n74.8w, 30.1n74.8w-30.9n74.8w, gso, 30.9n74.8w-39.0n74.8w into the GreatCircleMapper for a look at the last 12hours.

Using straightline projection upon the speed&heading averaged
over the 3hours spanning the last two reported positions:
~30hours from now to Wildwood,NewJersy
Quoting breald:


oh no.


!3 people on rig. 12 have been rescued. It is ok. You can go to http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Coast-Guard-reporting-rig-explosion-south-of-Grand-Isle-102065593.ht ml

Now, back to Earl! Everyone in his crosshairs please evacuate! Talk of Eye Wall replacement on this blog...and I know from experience that is not a good thing.
1360. Bonedog
Looks like the NRL cone might soon be the windfield LOL

Quoting aasmith26:


have found no evidence of this, anywhere on the web.


it was on cnn just a minute ago
Quoting xkcd:
My grandmother is in Harwich, MA, south-mid Cape Cod, and I'm trying to decide whether to tell her to head off to the mainland tonight. I figure that if there's going to be an evacuation, she doesn't want to be on the highway Friday morning when everyone sees it coming and panics. She can drive herself, but she's inclined to stay -- she says that she sat through Bob just fine, and she's far enough inland to be safe from flooding. But she's in a small house in a tree-filled neighborhood by herself.

It looks like the winds are really concentrated to the east of the storm (as usual, though particularly so in this case) and the GFS has the mid-Cape experiencing mild TS-force winds at peak.

I'm going to call her in a few hours with my recommendation. She could head in to stay with relatives in Boston or get a hotel Thursday and Friday nights, but she doesn't really want to. Advice?
Tell her to go inland. Storms can be tricky. My 80 year old mom didn't want to evacuate for Katrina and she lived on the water. Her house was destroyed. I couldn't believe she thought she'd be alright. Took a lot of convincing to get her to go, I think because she didn't want to change her "routine". Best of Luck to you.
1363. hydrus
Quoting mcluvincane:
Does anyone expect major damage for the outerbanks
They are up to snuff when it comes to big storms out there. My guess is there will be serious damage....I hope I eat crow tho.
Quoting Kristina40:


Oh God, no. Please tell me that is a mistake..

by WWLTV.com
wwltv.com
Posted on September 2, 2010 at 10:09 AM
Updated today at 10:23 AM
The Coast Guard is responding to a reported rig incident south of Vermillion Bay.
A Coast Guard spokesman said that 13 people were on the rig and that 12 have been accounted for at this time.
Rescue choppers from New Orleans and Houston responded to the scene
Quoting tazzer06:


it was on cnn just a minute ago


Thanks for the correction. ;-)
1366. dmdhdms
Quoting butterflymcb:


link?? info?? oh no


http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2010/09/coast_guard_responding_to_rig.html

A blurb from the NOLA.COM (Times Picayune) website.
Quoting aasmith26:


have found no evidence of this, anywhere on the web.
This place is one of the quickest news sites out there. Just came up on ABC on line site.
1368. P451
Seeing an ever so slight eastward progression in Kentucky and Tennessee now.

The real big burst of energy going through Iowa has stopped moving east and is now heading more northward.

Indiana, Ohio, and NY? No eastward progression at ALL. In fact, some retrogression to the NW in Ohio.

Not a good sign for New England.


Earl's NE outflow quadrant is now being pulled East by the high...but is that enough to tug Earl himself? I don't think so.

Outer banks and Cape Cod/se Mass will have some cleaning up to do. In fact, Cape Cod really could take a bad hit here.

Quoting Dunkman:
Hmm the HH finds the center at 75.1 v. 74.8 in the latest advisory.


Visual shows the center at 74.8 or .9
1370. ncstorm
Quoting leelee75k:
what is local media coverage like in the watch and warning areas? Are they doing non stop coverage like they do in South Florida? Mainstream media while giving it attention seems be awfully reserved, not the usual overhype you usually get.



only hour updates here..but activity hasnt started here yet..we have winds at 25 miles being reported from the beaches but no rain yet and they just announced that schools WILL be operating on a normal day tomorrow..I find that really irresponsible for them to say that when the storm hasnt even turned to the NE yet
Flood whats the declination where Earl is?..my point is we keep hearing "due north"...well thats 360...if for example there is a neg 6deg dec then 360 would be the easterly movement...Right? cant google where I am, thanks.
1372. breald
Quoting aasmith26:


have found no evidence of this, anywhere on the web.


thanks.
Quoting tazzer06:


it was on cnn just a minute ago


I just called my son he's on grand isle and he hasn't heard nothing about it yet. I'm not saying it didn't happen i just wanted to make sure he was k. He's gonna call me back aas soon as he finds out what's going on.
sheri
Quoting butterflymcb:


link?? info?? oh no



http://www.nola.com/news/index.ssf/2010/09/coast_guard_responding_to_rig.html#modg_smoref_face
Thanks for the update Gumbogirl. Glad to hear they have been rescued. And no reports of Oil. Ugh! Yes back to Earl....
1376. lakeEFX
Quoting snowboy:
From the forecaster discussion for Buffalo, NY:

... The weak trough of low pressure will try to push into the ridge
today with little success. Hurricane Earl will continue to move up
the eastern Seaboard today around the western periphery of the
Atlantic sub-tropical ridge. Deep layer subsidence over much of the
Middle Atlantic States and New England from the persistent ridge...and
also from the upper tropospheric outflow from Earl will act to repel
and weaken the approaching trough...effectively dissipating it later
today and tonight...

Tonight the trough will continue to wash out...with the remnants
lifting back north away from the area in response to the approach of
hurricane Earl's upper level outflow.


Our forecast discussion didn't mention it dissipating, maybe they will in their update, but they have been saying that the trough won't move much because of Earl for the past four days.
Quoting jazzygal:


It is South of Vermillion Parish. See nola.com

http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Coast-Guard-reporting-rig-explosion-south-of-Grand-Isle-102065593.h tml

1378. h0db
new blog from Dr. Masters

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/JeffMasters/show.html
Normally, I try to avoid engaging in conjecture but it would seem that the absence of a new blog update by the good Dr. would indicate a change in the track forecast based on the trough's weakness.
Earl might be getting to the outerbanks to fast...this may not be good.
Bonedog @1360: Do you have a link to that map? Thanks in advance!
Quoting Floodman:


IF it continues noirth, yes, it has to graze, especially with an EWRC coing...the expansion of the wind field will cause some further interaction, but as for Cape Cod, that's a wait and see proposition...how far east will he tend as the trof moves into play?


One disturbing thought is what if the trough fails and falls apart as the NWS Buffalo discussion suggested. That could allow a more Northerly component AFTER OBX and change the track to one with less recurve/S-curve. This could change the route of Earl and threaten more of VA and areas directly North. Will the AB High ridge pull back and itself allow a more Easterly movement for Earl without that Trough pushing through?
GRAND ISLE, LA (WAFB) - WWL-TV in New Orleans has confirmed the Coast Guard is responding to a rig explosion in the Gulf of Mexico.

Dozens are reported injured.

According to the Coast Guard, it happened 80 miles south of Grand Isle.

Rescue choppers from New Orleans and Houston are responding.

The injured will be taken to hospitals in various coastal areas from Houston to the Louisiana/Mississippi border area.

Quoting catastropheadjuster:


I just called my son he's on grand isle and he hasn't heard nothing about it yet. I'm not saying it didn't happen i just wanted to make sure he was k. He's gonna call me back aas soon as he finds out what's going on.
sheri


I already posted a link to it and it is all over the news right now.
1385. 900MB
Quoting jazzygal:


It is South of Vermillion Parish. See nola.com


Hopefully the blowout preventer works on this one!!!!
Quoting leelee75k:
what is local media coverage like in the watch and warning areas? Are they doing non stop coverage like they do in South Florida? Mainstream media while giving it attention seems be awfully reserved, not the usual overhype you usually get.


I am in SE Mass and having a hard time getting the WX guys up here to commit to anything but the Cape. Should I drain the pool a little?
According to the Coast Guard the rig was not producing oil. The rig is on fire but at this time they do not think that there is an oil leak but are awaiting confirmation.
1388. Bonedog
Vermilion 380 all accounted for.

Rig fully engulfed in flames
DOCS GOT A NEW PAGE UP
Quoting texascoastres:
The storms are bad enough without the not knowing if family members that stayed are ok. Yah, 30 hrs in evac traffic really stinks but so does the horror of wathcing this from a safe distance and not being able to communicate with the ones that chose to stay and may or maynot be there when you get back!


That reminds me - during a disaster it's easier to get through using texts than it is to call when the phone lines jam up or go down. I'm sure you know this, Texas - but for anyone from the east coast... learned this from experience.
1392. 900MB
If that is an EWRC looks like it will wobble it west by .5deg
Quoting gumbogrrl:


!3 people on rig. 12 have been rescued. It is ok. You can go to http://www.wwltv.com/news/local/Coast-Guard-reporting-rig-explosion-south-of-Grand-Isle-102065593.ht ml

Now, back to Earl! Everyone in his crosshairs please evacuate! Talk of Eye Wall replacement on this blog...and I know from experience that is not a good thing.


A person still missing after the explosion and it's "okay"?
Quoting midgulfmom:
Thanks for the update Gumbogirl. Glad to hear they have been rescued. And no reports of Oil. Ugh! Yes back to Earl....


Yes. Unfortunately, we live with incidents like these on the rigs. Seems like they happen far too often. But, it appears that this was not one of the super rigs and not anything like what we experienced back in May. My prayers are with those of the remaining person yet to be found...I just want to make sure people here on this forum don't think another BP oil spill just occurred b/c that is not the case.

Anyone waiting to evacuate for Earl, just get out of his way. Why do you want to live through tornadoes, your roof possibly being torn off or a tree falling on your home? Not to mention if you have children and you are near the coast, they are going to be traumatized from this thing...not to mention yourself! Have mercy on yourself, your pets, your children and just leave if you are on the NC coast and nearby areas!!
Mcluvincane...You are baiting/fishing with that Fox comment..LOL.
OIL RIG EXPLODES IN GOM
1394 Gumbogirl..mirror your thoughts. Definitely things to seriously consider esp. with children and the elderly.
1399. snotly
It is South of Vermillion Parish. See nola.com

Thank God its only 450 feet down, if anyone was looking for a silver lining
Quoting Kristina40:


I already posted a link to it and it is all over the news right now.


yes I see and my son called me back and let me know what was going on.
sheri
1401. RJT185
Quoting StormsAreCool:



Well, that's gay. Just what we need. :(



well that's insensitive, which is exactly what we don't need.
Quoting aasmith26:


have found no evidence of this, anywhere on the web.


http://www.wafb.com/Global/story.asp?S=13089364
Quoting aasmith26:


have found no evidence of this, anywhere on the web.


http://www.wafb.com/Global/story.asp?S=13089364
Quoting mikatnight:
OIL RIG EXPLODES IN GOM

Just saw that too -- busy news day out in the waters, on many levels.
new blog gang
1406. 34chip
Quoting StormsAreCool:



Well, that's gay. Just what we need. :(
As someone that is Gay. I do not fine that funny!!
1407. 34chip
Quoting StormsAreCool:



Well, that's gay. Just what we need. :(
As someone that is Gay. I do not fine that funny!!
1408. 34chip
Quoting StormsAreCool:



Well, that's gay. Just what we need. :(
As someone that is Gay. I do not fine that funny!!
1410. snowboy
Quoting notabubba:

Longtime lurker here in RI, but Earl is rousing me from slumber. Bob dropped a 30" diameter black locust tree on my roof in '91 so really don't want his cousin Earl to visit. What's up with the Buffalo NWS office? Why do they perceive the motion and effectiveness of the trough so differently from NHC? And if Buffalo is accurate, doesn't this potentailly mean Earl is much further left of the forecast track by the time it gets to New England? Thanks all.


They're just calling it as they see it. I'm an hour west of Buffalo, and we have brilliant sunshine and it's HOT - the long advertised trough is nowhere to be seen..
Workers donned their "gumby suits", Coast Guard plucking them out of water now.
Quoting ConchHondros:
Flood whats the declination where Earl is?..my point is we keep hearing "due north"...well thats 360...if for example there is a neg 6deg dec then 360 would be the easterly movement...Right? cant google where I am, thanks.


I thought due north was zero degrees, not 360, am I mistaken?
Quoting RJT185:



well that's insensitive, which is exactly what we don't need.


How is that insensitive? I'm saying it's a bad thing and we don't need it.
Hey guys, whats going on with Gaston? Is it the dry air? Will should he still make the forcasted turn?
Quoting jazzygal:
Another oil rig explosion in the Gulf south of Grand Isle per WWl Radio. Dozens hurt.


According to CNN, 13 people were on board. All but one have been accounted for.
Quoting Kristina40:


Oh God, no. Please tell me that is a mistake..

Link to story
http://www.wafb.com/Global/story.asp?S=13089364
1418. TheMom
Am I missing the 1100 still or is still not up figured it would be on here as soon as it posted.
1419. Legion
Quoting Legion:
Here is a very in-depth thesis on how dry air entrainment (and to a lesser extent sheer and cooler waters near the coast from Isidore passing there a week earlier) caused Hurricane Lili to be one of the most rapidly weakening storms ever recorded, and was retired for that reason. Lili went from a 145 mph Cat4 to a 90 mph Cat1 in under 8 hours.

Link (PDF)

I think we are seeing a repeat of that with Earl, dry air getting into the inner core of the system will cause the eyewall to collapse and we'll see rapid weakening like with Lili.
OMG...

That makes me suspect terrorism.

All these years and no major U.S. rig disasters, and now suddenly two rigs explode within the same year?

That's BS...

It's right off Grand Isle too.
This is really starting to be worrisome for the forecast track to me.


Look how highly elongated Earl has become on the western side. There could be some significant steering consequences eventually.
1422. 34chip
Quoting SomeRandomTexan:
34chip 3:50 PM GMT on September 02, 2010
Quoting StormsAreCool:



Well, that's gay. Just what we need. :(
As someone that is Gay. I do not fine that funny!!


putting on your shirt might keep the rest of us from laughing too
Driving and taking a picture make you look stupied!
See a couple models are trying to do some interesting things with Fiona...Think she's telling Earl "You don't own me"
ok blog just got too quiet
NEW BLOG
1426. kwgirl
Quoting NEwatcher:


I am in SE Mass and having a hard time getting the WX guys up here to commit to anything but the Cape. Should I drain the pool a little?
You are not supposed to drain pools. They pop out of ground if you let too much out.
1427. kwgirl
Quoting RecordSeason:
OMG...

That makes me suspect terrorism.

All these years and no major U.S. rig disasters, and now suddenly two rigs explode within the same year?

That's BS...

It's right off Grand Isle too.
OR it could be GW which is causing the methane in the ground to be released. Just a thought. Hope it isn't terrorism.