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Category 3 Typhoon Sanba hitting Okinawa

By: Dr. Jeff Masters, 5:00 PM GMT on September 15, 2012

The winds are rising and heavy rain is lashing Okinawa, Japan where Category 3 Typhoon Sanba is expected to make landfall early Sunday morning local time (early this afternoon U.S. EDT.) Radar loops show that the large 35-mile diameter eye of Sanba is on a track that will bring it across the southern part of Okinawa, and heavy rains and wind gusts of 59 mph and 66 mph have been reported at Naha Airport and Kadena Air Force Base, respectively, over the past few hours. Moderate wind shear of 10 - 20 knots has weakened Sanba below its Category 5 peak on Friday morning, and satellite loops show that Sanba is weakening, with the cloud tops warming and the eyewall getting eroded on the west side, but Sanba should be able to maintain Category 3 strength as it crosses Okinawa today. Sanba will continue to weaken as it encounters cooler waters and higher wind shear between Okinawa and South Korea Saturday night and Sunday, and is likely to be at Category 1 strength at landfall in South Korea near 18 UTC on Sunday.


Figure 1. Radar image of Typhoon Sanba approaching Okinawa. Image credit: Japan Meteorological Agency.

Sanba: the strongest tropical cyclone of 2012
The most powerful tropical cyclone of 2012 is Typhoon Sanba. Sanba formed as a tropical depression over the western Pacific Ocean on September 10. The storm rapidly strengthened from a Category 1 to a Category 5 storm over very warm waters of 30°C (86°F) in just 24 hours beginning on September 13, and became Category 5 Super Typhoon with 175 mph winds for an 18-hour period ending at 12 UTC Friday, September 14. Sanba is Earth's only Category 5 tropical cyclone so far in 2012; the planet had two such storms in 2011, both in the Western Pacific. The previous strongest tropical cyclone of 2012 was Super Typhoon Guchol, a Category 4 storm with top winds of 150 mph east of the Philippines in June. Sanba is the strongest typhoon in the Western Pacific since October 2010, when Super Typhoon Megi's sustained winds hit 180 mph.



FIgure 2. Super Typhoon Sanba at peak strength, as seen at 04:50 UTC September 13, 2012, by the MODIS instrument on NASA's Aqua satellite. At the time, Sanba was a Super Typhoon with sustained winds of 175 mph and gusts to 205 mph. The spectacular eye of Super Typhoon Sanba featured two counter-rotating eddies at the surface. Image credit: NASA.

Links for Sanba
Radar loop from Okinawa
Live traffic with audio and video of Typhoon Sanba approaching.is available from ustream.tv.
Current conditions from Naha Airport, Okinawa, Japan
Current conditions from Kadena Air Force Base, Okinawa, Japan

Atlantic tropical update
Hurricane Nadine is recurving to the northeast on a track that may bring the storm close to the Azores Islands in 4 - 5 days. Steering currents for Nadine are expected to collapse in about 5 days, and the storm will likely wander for many days in the Central Atlantic.

A tropical wave about 600 miles east of the Lesser Antilles Islands is moving west at 15 mph, and will spread heavy rain showers and gusty winds over the islands on Sunday. The wave is under a moderate 10 - 20 knots of wind shear, and has only a small amount of heavy thunderstorm activity, due to a large area of dry air surrounding the system. The amount of heavy thunderstorm activity has increased some this afternoon, though. The 12Z run of the NOGAPS model predicts the wave could approach tropical depression strength by Wednesday, when it will be near the Dominican Republic. However, none of the other reliable models develop the system, and the wave doesn't have much spin at present, as seen on an 11:14 am EDT ASCAT pass.. In their 2 pm EDT Tropical Weather Outlook, NHC gave the wave a 20% of developing into a tropical depression by Monday afternoon. A hurricane hunter aircraft is on call for Monday afternoon to investigate the storm, just in case.

Jeff Masters

Hurricane

The views of the author are his/her own and do not necessarily represent the position of The Weather Company or its parent, IBM.

Reader Comments

The formation of tropical cyclones is the topic of extensive ongoing research and is still not fully understood. While six factors appear to be generally necessary, tropical cyclones may occasionally form without meeting all of the following conditions
Quoting Tazmanian:



Take a chill pill I sure it was this a mistake. No need too jump on him for a small mistake

Sorry Taz but you need to take a chill pill. How was what I said "jump" on him? Geez dude go to bed.




Sanba Floods the Philippines
A resident wades through a flooded street following heavy rains spawned by Sanba on Saturday, Sept. 15, 2012 at San Juan City, east of Manila, Philippines.

Link
505. etxwx
Uh oh. Quote: "They always forget about volcanoes."

Japan finds another gap in its disaster readiness - Mount Fuji
TOKYO | Sat Sep 15, 2012 By Sophie Knight

Excerpt: (Reuters) - When Toshitsugu Fujii became head of a Japanese task force on disaster response at Mount Fuji, he was confronted with a startling oversight. Japan had no plan in place to deal with a disaster in which an earthquake sparks a volcanic eruption at the country's most famous landmark. Fujii said a tremor "greatly increases" the chance of an eruption in a country that has experienced nearly 12,000 earthquakes since the magnitude 9.0 tremor that led to disaster on March 11, 2011.

"They always forget about the volcanoes," he said. "The government has never included Mt. Fuji in its earthquake scenarios."

Fujii's job is to change that. More than a year after the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear power plant meltdown that scarred a generation of Japanese, the government is still working to close the gaps in its disaster response.

Scientists say that the 2011 earthquake may have increased the chances of Mount Fuji erupting. The disaster caused a series of tremors around the mountain, including a magnitude 6.4 quake directly beneath it that caused a 20 meter-long crack in its side and put pressure on the volcano's magma chamber. The volcano is active and if an eruption was to occur it would potentially threaten a vast area including Tokyo, 100 km (62 miles) away.


Continued here.
Flare-up of convection building near the center. I may have to declare a blob alert so the NHC will know what to do.


Quoting Grothar:
Flare-up of convection building near the center. I may have to declare a blob alert so the NHC will know what to do.


Time to send HH?
Quoting Grothar:
Flare-up of convection building near the center. I may have to declare a blob alert so the NHC will know what to do.




Whatca thinking Gro? I was thinking strong re-curve, weak west but, with the high building in the Bahama's I'm not so sure now. I can see appreciable strengthening down the road.
Quoting Grothar:
Flare-up of convection building near the center. I may have to declare a blob alert so the NHC will know what to do.


My blob alarm just woke me up.
The 00z surface analysis by TAFB.

Quoting etxwx:
Uh oh. Quote: "They always forget about volcanoes."

Japan finds another gap in its disaster readiness - Mount Fuji
TOKYO | Sat Sep 15, 2012 By Sophie Knight

Excerpt: (Reuters) - When Toshitsugu Fujii became head of a Japanese task force on disaster response at Mount Fuji, he was confronted with a startling oversight. Japan had no plan in place to deal with a disaster in which an earthquake sparks a volcanic eruption at the country's most famous landmark. Fujii said a tremor "greatly increases" the chance of an eruption in a country that has experienced nearly 12,000 earthquakes since the magnitude 9.0 tremor that led to disaster on March 11, 2011.

"They always forget about the volcanoes," he said. "The government has never included Mt. Fuji in its earthquake scenarios."

Fujii's job is to change that. More than a year after the earthquake, tsunami and nuclear power plant meltdown that scarred a generation of Japanese, the government is still working to close the gaps in its disaster response.

Scientists say that the 2011 earthquake may have increased the chances of Mount Fuji erupting. The disaster caused a series of tremors around the mountain, including a magnitude 6.4 quake directly beneath it that caused a 20 meter-long crack in its side and put pressure on the volcano's magma chamber. The volcano is active and if an eruption was to occur it would potentially threaten a vast area including Tokyo, 100 km (62 miles) away.


Continued here.


I posted a comment about that about a week or so ago.

Recent studies assume an increased risk of earthquakes in the Tokai, Tonankai and Nankai regions, which lie at the edge of the Nankai Trough, where a larger quake is expected. In the worst case, a series of simultaneous severe quakes could cause up to 323,000 deaths and additionally trigger an eruption of Mount Fuji, the gloomy conclusion
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Whatca thinking Gro? I was thinking strong re-curve, weak west but, with the high building in the Bahama's I'm not so sure now. I can see appreciable strengthening down the road.


Early guess..florida threat in terms of track if it developes similar to wilma. Not intensity
Quoting ProgressivePulse:


Whatca thinking Gro? I was thinking strong re-curve, weak west but, with the high building in the Bahama's I'm not so sure now. I can see appreciable strengthening down the road.


The high is building back up. I do not see anything at the moment that would move this one NW or North. It really is something to watch. These are the ones that just sneak up on you sometimes.

Very little dry air




Nice little high and no troughs coming down far enough

Quoting unknowncomic:
Time to send HH?


I think they might tomorrow if the convection keeps building.
You all laugh at me, but I use sophisticated calculus and physics to determine my blobs.

Quoting Grothar:


I think they might tomorrow if the convection keeps building.


For Monday afternoon if needed.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SAT 15 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-119

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
FOR 17/1800Z IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14.5N 64.0W.
GFS 12 hrs. trying to bite for development.

Quoting Grothar:
You all laugh at me, but I use sophisticated calculus and physics to determine my blobs.

Very nice professor; the sophistication speaks for itself. :)
Nadine may be stronger than 70 knots now.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine may be stronger than 70 knots now.


Yeah I think it may be a little stronger, but not by to much.
92L/INV/XX/XX
MARK
13.85N/55.5W
Quoting Tropicsweatherpr:


For Monday afternoon if needed.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL.
1145 AM EDT SAT 15 SEPTEMBER 2012
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 16/1100Z TO 17/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2012
TCPOD NUMBER.....12-119

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: POSSIBLE LOW-LEVEL INVEST
FOR 17/1800Z IN EASTERN CARIBBEAN NEAR 14.5N 64.0W.


That was at 11 this morning, things have changed.
528. JLPR2
Sure looks less impressive, we'll have to wait and see how it looks in the morning.

Quoting hurricane23:


Early guess..florida threat in terms of track if it developes similar to wilma. Not intensity


I agree.
531. JLPR2
I see that 92L's 850mb vort is weakening and will probably dissipate as its decent MLC seems to have taken over. As of now the MLC has made its way to the 700mb level by tomorrow it could dig down to the surface, forming a new LLC.

Here is the 850mb vort.


Compare it to the 500mb (MLC) vort.


Tomorrow could be an interesting day for 92L, or not. XD
Shear is not looking too bad in the Caribbean:

Quoting JLPR2:
Sure looks less impressive, we'll have to wait and see how it looks in the morning.



Look where TAFB at 00z has the low.

Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:
Nadine may be stronger than 70 knots now.



Agreed.
Latest GFS doesn't like 92L's chances. We'll have to see if its attitude changes tomorrow and what DMAX brings.
Heaviest thunderstorms to 92L's southeast are being sheared to death. Looks like 20-25 Knots.


Flare-up blob is at buoy 41101:



Station 41101
Meteo France
Location: 14.600N 56.201W
Date: Sun, 16 Sep 2012 03:00:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 12.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.0 F
Dew Point: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 83.7 F
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Flare-up blob is at buoy 41101:



Station 41101
Meteo France
Location: 14.600N 56.201W
Date: Sun, 16 Sep 2012 03:00:00 UTC
Winds: ENE (70°) at 12.0 kt
Significant Wave Height: 3.0 ft
Dominant Wave Period: 7 sec
Atmospheric Pressure: 29.91 in and rising
Air Temperature: 82.0 F
Dew Point: 76.3 F
Water Temperature: 83.7 F


Hey GT...been keeping an eye on this one. So far pressures have not been falling.
Quoting wxwonder1:


Hey GT...been keeping an eye on this one. So far pressures have not been falling.
Nope, in fact they have been rising, tells me that 92L is in a high pressure environment, but remember Michael developed in a high pressure environment.
pressure at 92L
Quoting GTcooliebai:
Nope, in fact they have been rising, tells me that 92L is in a high pressure environment, but remember Michael developed in a high pressure environment.


I agree. Well so far convective activity has been persistent...albeit disorganized. Tonight will be an interesting night as 92 def. needs more convection to get going. So far it has held it's own...needs a good dmax for sure.
I wouldn't try to push the envelope too fast, still a 20% invest ATM.

THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
COUPLE OF DAYS.
BTW, thank you Grothar and Adrian for your responses. Had to catch the end of the Notre Dame game, 3-0 for the first time in a decade. Shy Excitement you could say.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:
BTW, thank you Grothar and Adrian for your responses. Had to catch the end of the Notre Dame game, 3-0 for the first time in a decade. Shy Excitement you could say.

Oh no, I wanted MSU to win. I don't like MSU but I really don't like ND. Today was a great day for football weather wise.
11 days out and Nadine is still with us.

Quoting GTcooliebai:
11 days out and Nadine is still with us.



Kyle redux, except farther north?
Sanba still looks mean and has an intense eyewall.

Nadine is still looking good, and T#'s are back up to 4.5.

552. JLPR2
Quoting GTcooliebai:
11 days out and Nadine is still with us.



Jeez, that will likely help it climb up the ACE table.
I am trying to submit my CoCoRaHS application and I get their error message even though I've filled out everything. It says the server doesn't exist or it has timed out, what is going on?
Quoting JLPR2:


Jeez, that will likely help it climb up the ACE table.

Yeah that would give us a big boost. Add that and possible development from 92L then we could see ACE near 100.
Quoting wxchaser97:
Nadine is still looking good, and T#'s are back up to 4.5.



The convection is not as intense as several hours ago, but it IS wrapping around the center very nicely. This should help close off the dry air and allow her to intensify.

And I couldn't agree with you more about rooting against ND, even if that means an MSU win, haha.
Quoting wxchaser97:
I am trying to submit my CoCoRaHS application and I get their error message even though I've filled out everything. It says the server doesn't exist or it has timed out, what is going on?


I just visited their website and got an error message. I'd say just wait.
There was NWS server troubles earlier today.
Nothing changed on the TWO.

This is just a little scary.

Quoting AussieStorm:
This is just a little scary.



Good thing we don't have fire hurricanes!
AussieStorm: Yikes on that fire tornado! What caused it?
okinawa after sanba
Quoting listenerVT:
AussieStorm: Yikes on that fire tornado! What caused it?


Small wiki write-up on them:
Link
Quoting bigwes6844:
okinawa after sanba


Thanks Wes.
Japan Meteorological Agency
Tropical Cyclone Advisory #45
TYPHOON SANBA (T1216)
15:00 PM JST September 16 2012
======================================

SUBJECT: Category Four Typhoon In East China Sea

At 6:00 AM UTC, Typhoon Sanba (930 hPa) located at 28.8N 128.1E has 10 minute sustained winds of 90 knots with gusts of 130 knots. The cyclone is reported as moving north at 16 knots.

Dvorak Intensity: T5.5

Storm Force Winds
=================
140 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
90 NM from the center in western quadrant

Gale Force Winds
===============
300 NM from the center in eastern quadrant
270 NM from the center in western quadrant

Forecast and Intensity
=======================

24 HRS: 35.3N 127.9E - 80 knots (CAT 3/Strong Typhoon) Overland Korean Peninsula
48 HRS: 44.5N 131.3E - Extratropical Low near Maritime Province (Russia)
567. JLPR2
92L doesn't look impressive, but rain is on its way to Barbados.

.............................good morning folks
Mornin' Largo.. folks!
92l makes me nervous. Lots of rocket fuel, low shear, cold fronts have started pushing down... Wilma like tracks running up the face of the fronts.. bad for Florida
Quoting indianrivguy:
92l makes me nervous. Lots of rocket fuel, low shear, cold fronts have started pushing down... Wilma like tracks running up the face of the fronts.. bad for Florida
yes watching this one closely alright
Quoting indianrivguy:
Mornin' Largo.. folks!
....good morning
A powerful autumn storm is forecast to bring strong wind and heavy rain to much of Southcentral Alaska beginning Saturday evening. Due to recent rainfall, the ground is saturated leading to a greater risk of flooding and fallen trees. Significant power outages are possible. Winds in Anchorage could gust to 65 mph, and farther east in the higher elevations winds could gust to 110 mph
Quoting Skyepony:
There was NWS server troubles earlier today.


The servers were down early Sat morning as well, seem to be up now.
Good morning everyone, severe weather outbreak shown for the NE in 3 days and Nadine is still looking good.
579. viman
Tell me it isn't so!!!
Good morning. Sanba appears to be entering another EWRC:



It will never finish this one though, as conditions over it have become extremely unfavorable and it is closing in on landfall.

581. viman
Is there another weather blog, a secret weather society blog tingy, WHERE IS EVERYONE - ASLEEP!!! Sorry bout the screaming thing... Good morning everyone!!!
582. viman
2 posts per hour????
Quoting viman:
2 posts per hour????

It's 7AM on Sunday morning. Most normal people are asleep at this time. Only freaks like me and you are awake :)
584. viman
I''m up because I have to, not by choice, that's for sure... So I definitely see your point, just thought that more people would be on, morning here, but afternoon, elsewhere...
Hmmm - 92L. If it wants to develop into a hurricane it has to get north of 25 or west of 80. That's the pattern this year.
Here'e my new blog post on Invest 92L Link
T numbers are suggesting Nadine isn't even close to hurricane status right now.

Puerto Rico NWS Disco

AN ACTIVE TROPICAL WAVE...LOCATED AROUND 600 MILES SOUTHEAST OF
PUERTO RICO EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE WEST TO
WEST-NORTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. THIS WAVE IS
ACCOMPANY BY A GOOD SURGE IN TROPICAL MOISTURE...WHICH WILL
ENCOMPASS THE REGION BEGINNING ON TUESDAY MORNING AND LASTING
THROUGH AT LEAST THURSDAY. PERIODS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY RAINFALL
CAN BE EXPECTED WITH THIS WAVE...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR URBAN
FLOODING OVER SOME AREAS. AFTER THE PASSAGE OF THIS WAVE...AN
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL PASS MAINLY SOUTH OF THE AREA...BRINGING
ANOTHER ROUND OF MOISTURE WHICH WILL AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK
92L still at 20%.
TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT SUN SEP 16 2012

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS ISSUING ADVISORIES ON HURRICANE
NADINE...LOCATED ABOUT 1135 MILES WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE AZORES.

AN ELONGATED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE LOCATED ABOUT 400 MILES EAST OF
THE LESSER ANTILLES IS PRODUCING DISORGANIZED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS. ALTHOUGH UPPER-LEVEL WINDS ARE CURRENTLY UNFAVORABLE
FOR DEVELOPMENT TO OCCUR...THEY COULD BECOME MORE CONDUCIVE IN A
FEW DAYS. THIS SYSTEM HAS A LOW CHANCE...20 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A
TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES WESTWARD AT
AROUND 15 MPH. REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS AND
SQUALLS COULD AFFECT PORTIONS OF THE LESSER ANTILLES TODAY THROUGH
AND MONDAY.

ELSEWHERE...TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION IS NOT EXPECTED DURING THE
NEXT 48 HOURS.

$$
FORECASTER STEWART
A huge storm is continuing to impact Alaska. Winds have been at hurricane force out there.

Good morning, everyone. I see that 92L has finally displaced her convection to the west and left what was the area of convection last night further SE. The wind barbs from bouys and stations in the area suggest a closed but very broad low. Does anyone have a guess where 92L's COC, if it exists, might be?
Quoting MAweatherboy1:
T numbers are suggesting Nadine isn't even close to hurricane status right now.


Well sure...if you're using CIMSS.

It would help if they would analyze the center position correctly.

Quoting MAweatherboy1:
A huge storm is continuing to impact Alaska. Winds have been at hurricane force out there.


I knew there was a reason I didn't live in Alaska. :)
Quoting indianrivguy:
92l makes me nervous. Lots of rocket fuel, low shear, cold fronts have started pushing down... Wilma like tracks running up the face of the fronts.. bad for Florida


Lots of storms this season and last season have mysteriously failed to strengthen. The common factor appears to be lack of vertical instability, which weakens convection. 92L will experience this inhibiting factor where its going. Another dud.
Quoting Grothar:
You all laugh at me, but I use sophisticated calculus and physics to determine my blobs.





Grothar is "state-of-the-art".
Quoting yonzabam:


Lots of storms this season and last season have mysteriously failed to strengthen. The common factor appears to be lack of vertical instability, which weakens convection. 92L will experience this inhibiting factor where its going. Another dud.



Again, a lack of vertical instability doesn't mean we still can't see monster hurricanes.
Quoting sar2401:
Good morning, everyone. I see that 92L has finally displaced her convection to the west and left what was the area of convection last night further SE. The wind barbs from bouys and stations in the area suggest a closed but very broad low. Does anyone have a guess where 92L's COC, if it exists, might be?


My guess would be around 12.8N/54.7W, looking at the early visible.Link
We have a new invest.

BEGIN
NHC_ATCF
invest_ep922012.invest
FSTDA
R
U
040
010
0000
201209161003
NONE
NOTIFY=ATRP
END
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
WELL if nothing else, that guy on the islands who was crying for rain will finally get it 92L seems to be headed that way
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:



Again, a lack of vertical instability doesn't mean we still can't see monster hurricanes.


Well, we've had 14 named storms this year, and only one made it (barely) to a major.
6Z GFS 384HR
Quoting stormpetrol:


My guess would be around 12.8N/54.7W, looking at the early visible.Link
That looks reasonable to me. A few more frames will be helpful.
YES, the Chief Blobologist is in the house! Good morning Doc Gro and everyone!
Grothar...is 92L going over "MY" house yet?
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, we've had 14 named storms this year, and only one made it (barely) to a major.

Yes, but there have been eight hurricanes. That is more than the entire season last year.

Gordon was very close to becoming a major, and one could argue so was Kirk.
Quoting GeoffreyWPB:
Grothar...is 92L going over "MY" house yet?


I think first over the Caymans then two block North of you.
Quoting stormpetrol:


My guess would be around 12.8N/54.7W, looking at the early visible.Link

That's about where I thought also, somewhere around last night's convection. If that's true, the low is making almost no progrees N or W. although convection has managed to move N and W. Even though conditions may become more favorable in about three days, I'm not sure 92L has that long to hang around out there.
Good Morning!:)
Quoting Abacosurf:
That looks reasonable to me. A few more frames will be helpful.


13.5N 55.3W
Good Morning... well 92L not as stacked as yesterday. 500MB VORT well to the W of the 850/700MB VORT.

I give it for the time being 30% change until it gets further stacked once more (if it decides to try again).
Quoting LargoFl:

I think the size and date of that cold front in the Gulf is optimistic. The front is currently hung up in the northern Plains and most models are slowing it down and washing most of it out over south AL. It certainly doesn't look like the cooler air is going to get that far out into the Gulf.
ATCF:

AL, 14, 2012091612, , BEST, 0, 305N, 428W, 70, 983, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 40, 30, 0, 1013, 290, 20, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, NADINE, D,


Quoting Grothar:


13.5N 55.3W


13.4 55.1 did you see it second? Or was that first?

Good morning sir. :)
Dropping boat on lift as I type....Going to sneak out in Naples before that stuff to the south gets me. I hope!
There is currently a ULL which has been shearing 92L from the west. However, this is expected to lessen and by tomorrow, a high pressure system should be moving over 92L over the next few days. This should aid in at least a small amount of development. It should be moving in the direction of some dry air in the far eastern Caribbean and then an area of some very moist air. For the time being, look at 92L as an elevator operator; it will have its ups and downs.
For the south Florida wishcasters.

Quoting Abacosurf:


13.4 55.1 did you see it second? Or was that first?

Good morning sir. :)


Good morning to you. I saw it first. :P
Quoting icmoore:
YES, the Cheif Blobologist is in the house! Good morning Doc Gro and everyone!


Morna, ic. That is a typical Scandinavian Good Morning.
Look what some of the models want to do with Nadine.

92L should in time get into a less hostile environment and could develope. As mentioned last night anything that ends up on nw Carib will quickly get recurved towards Florida similar to that of Wilma or Keith. Gulf looks rather hostile though
Quoting yonzabam:


Lots of storms this season and last season have mysteriously failed to strengthen. The common factor appears to be lack of vertical instability, which weakens convection. 92L will experience this inhibiting factor where its going. Another dud.


Also storms have not been able to get their act together until they get north of 25. Kinda wired.
Nadine seems to now be moving ESE
GFS on Nadine

Good morning Wunderground.

Currently located in Seoul, South Korea here.

Right now we are receiving light rain with light winds from Typhoon Sanba. Sometimes it gets gusty, but nothing over 30 mph. Schools and businesses recently decided to close for Monday hours due to the storm in the south of the country. I don't think the capital, Seoul, will decide to shut down schools, as it is located far to the north and west of the projected land fall area. The eye is suppose to jog more to the east from here on out, but so far, it is going due north (towards Seoul). It should begin making a more pronounce eastward turn in the next few hours.


Mike.
12z Best Track for 92L.

AL, 92, 2012091612, , BEST, 0, 133N, 549W, 25, 1011, LO
TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE MESSAGE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
1302 UTC SUN SEP 16 2012

DISCLAIMER...NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SUBJECT TO LARGE ERRORS.
PLEASE REFER TO NHC OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
AND SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE INFORMATION.

ATLANTIC OBJECTIVE AIDS FOR

DISTURBANCE INVEST (AL922012) 20120916 1200 UTC

...00 HRS... ...12 HRS... ...24 HRS. .. ...36 HRS...
120916 1200 120917 0000 120917 1200 120918 0000

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 13.3N 54.9W 14.0N 56.5W 14.5N 58.2W 15.0N 60.1W
BAMD 13.3N 54.9W 13.8N 57.6W 14.1N 60.3W 14.4N 62.9W
BAMM 13.3N 54.9W 13.9N 57.0W 14.4N 59.2W 14.8N 61.3W
LBAR 13.3N 54.9W 13.9N 57.2W 14.6N 59.6W 15.2N 61.8W
SHIP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 41KTS
DSHP 25KTS 27KTS 32KTS 41KTS

...48 HRS... ...72 HRS... ...96 HRS. .. ..120 HRS...
120918 1200 120919 1200 120920 1200 120921 1200

LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON LAT LON
BAMS 15.4N 62.1W 16.5N 66.5W 17.5N 71.1W 18.1N 75.6W
BAMD 14.6N 65.5W 15.3N 70.6W 16.2N 75.0W 16.9N 78.9W
BAMM 15.1N 63.8W 15.7N 68.9W 16.6N 74.2W 17.5N 79.1W
LBAR 15.8N 64.2W 16.7N 69.0W 18.5N 73.6W 20.8N 78.3W
SHIP 51KTS 68KTS 80KTS 87KTS
DSHP 51KTS 68KTS 80KTS 87KTS

...INITIAL CONDITIONS...
LATCUR = 13.3N LONCUR = 54.9W DIRCUR = 275DEG SPDCUR = 11KT
LATM12 = 13.1N LONM12 = 52.7W DIRM12 = 276DEG SPDM12 = 11KT
LATM24 = 12.9N LONM24 = 50.5W
WNDCUR = 25KT RMAXWD = 80NM WNDM12 = 25KT
CENPRS = 1011MB OUTPRS = 1014MB OUTRAD = 200NM SDEPTH = S
RD34NE = 0NM RD34SE = 0NM RD34SW = 0NM RD34NW = 0NM
Quoting yonzabam:


Well, we've had 14 named storms this year, and only one made it (barely) to a major.


Is that an observation or a complaint?
Quoting 92Andrew:
Good morning Wunderground.

Currently located in Seoul, South Korea here.

Right now we are receiving light rain with light winds from Typhoon Sanba. Sometimes it gets gusty, but nothing over 30 mph. Schools and businesses recently decided to close for Monday hours due to the storm in the south of the country. I don't think the capital, Seoul, will decide to shut down schools, as it is located far to the north and west of the projected land fall area. The eye is suppose to jog more to the east from here on out, but so far, it is going due north (towards Seoul). It should begin making a more pronounce eastward turn in the next few hours.


Mike.


Stay safe and good luck.
This area of tepid water near Cuba is growing.

New JTWC advisory puts Sanba at 90kts, about 12 hours from landfall.

Some people up in Pasco county might be losing Power shortly...not a good day to be flying an ultralight plane huh..............LAND O' LAKES --
Pasco County Fire and Rescue personnel are responding to an ultralight aircraft crash near Pilot Country Airport at U.S. 41 and State Road 52, authorities said.

There is no word yet and whether anyone was injured or what caused the crash.

According to the Pasco County Sheriff's Office, the pilot is unresponsive and the plane is caught in power lines.

Pilot Country Airport is a small air park located between Land O' Lakes and Spring Hill. An ultralight is a small, recreational aircraft.

Motorists are urged to avoid the intersection of U.S. 41 and S.R. 52. Traffic on S.R. 52 is being diverted to Ehren Cutoff Road and U.S. 41.
Keep us posted largo....

Hope the pilot is ok.
Quoting LargoFl:
Some people up in Pasco county might be losing Power shortly...not a good day to be flying an ultralight plane huh..............LAND O' LAKES --
Pasco County Fire and Rescue personnel are responding to an ultralight aircraft crash near Pilot Country Airport at U.S. 41 and State Road 52, authorities said.

There is no word yet and whether anyone was injured or what caused the crash.

According to the Pasco County Sheriff's Office, the pilot is unresponsive and the plane is caught in power lines.

Pilot Country Airport is a small air park located between Land O' Lakes and Spring Hill. An ultralight is a small, recreational aircraft.

Motorists are urged to avoid the intersection of U.S. 41 and S.R. 52. Traffic on S.R. 52 is being diverted to Ehren Cutoff Road and U.S. 41.


Pasco County is in Florida?

Morning, everyone.
Quoting aislinnpaps:


Pasco County is in Florida?

Morning, everyone.
yes
I hope the pilot is all right.
so far so good,92L not coming to florida,but watching it..
Quoting aislinnpaps:
I hope the pilot is all right.
yes me too
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fgcrgsREugI&featur e=youtube_gdata_player

James Reynolds
@typhoonfury
Footage now up I shot of the chaos in Higashi, Okinawa as #typhoon #Sanba slammed ashore - youtu.be/fgcrgsREugI
4 hours ago via TweetDeck
Quoting LargoFl:
so far so good,92L not coming to florida,but watching it..
I hope it stays away. Isaac was enough for this year.
A weak and undeveloped 92L will just continue west into Mexico.

But if it were to develop into a tropical system, it would most likely be pulled northward.

I don't wish a storm on anyone, but I kind of want 92L to develop. A local meteorologist completely dismissed 92L because of dry air and wind shear. He basically said "92L is no worry to us."

He's most likely right, but I hate it when meteorologists act like they have a crystal ball and they can see the future (100% for sure).
Quoting LargoFl:
so far so good,92L not coming to florida,but watching it..


Actually if anyone has a chance to see any impacts from this system in the conus it would be florida as there will be some opportunity for this to be recurved northeastward by a trof of low pressure. Right now the enviroment remains quite hostile but down the road in west carib it may have a shot.
Radar out of South Korea:

Quoting hurricane23:


Actually if anyone has a chance to see any impacts from this system in the conus it would be florida as there will be some opportunity for this to be recurved northeastward by a trof of low pressure. Right now the enviroment remains quite hostile but down the road in west carib it may have a shot.
yeah adding to our rainfall totals along with that cold front thats supposed to stall over central florida this coming week, going to be an interesting week for sure, hope not too much flooding
Quoting hurricane23:


Actually if anyone has a chance to see any impacts from this system in the conus it would be florida as there will be some opportunity for this to be recurved northeastward by a trof of low pressure. Right now the enviroment remains quite hostile but down the road in west carib it may have a shot.

Agreed. If this fails to develop though, it should go into Mexico.
anyone notice the wave behind 92L??.......
Quoting LargoFl:
anyone notice the wave behind 92L?..

Looks like it's gonna crash into South America.
Is that hook pattern present? The one where the storm. Passes between the Yucatan and western Cuba and smacks into Florida on its way back out across the Atlantic?
Quoting Dakster:
Is that hook pattern present? The one where the storm. Passes between the Yucatan and western Cuba and smacks into Florida on its way back out across the Atlantic?



Is that an academic enquiry or a wishcast?
Quoting Grothar:
GFS on Nadine




That's a pretty clear picture there Gro. Looks like Jeanne's models back in 04, lol.
Quoting TropicalAnalystwx13:

Agreed. If this fails to develop though, it should go into Mexico.


Gulf looks very hostile
Quoting Dakster:
Is that hook pattern present? The one where the storm. Passes between the Yucatan and western Cuba and smacks into Florida on its way back out across the Atlantic?


With High Pressure building in the Bahama's and regular troughs coming down, it's a distinct possibility. Assuming it develops, that is. Models aren't currently impressed however. Clear as Mud ATM.

boy rainfall totals for the year ought to be amazing..........................especially south florida
Quoting unknowncomic:
This area of tepid water near Cuba is growing.



*hums Christmassy*
Let it grow, let it grow, let it grow... Would give us some nice cool water if it did.

Interesting size of that colder area where Isaac went through.
Quoting ProgressivePulse:



That's a pretty clear picture there Gro. Looks like Jeanne's models back in 04, lol.


She was a twister for sure.
Texas getting some bad weather too...........
And, like a couple others this year, it's passing through the Eastern Caribbean without a well defined center. Most likely we'll be waiting for a few days to see anything develop.

I completely think that the rain doesn't want to fall in the northern leewards islands...
Why 92L doesn't recurve? Are we going to stay without rain???
We wish all for a big system, that's right cariboy...
676. etxwx
Good morning everyone. Hope everyone has a nice relaxing Sunday. Time for the morning newspaper reports. Unfortunately Sanba keeps on keepin' on...
Powerful typhoon approaches S. Korea
2012/09/16 11:19 KST

SEOUL/JEJU, South Korea, Sept. 16 (Yonhap) -- Thousands of ships took shelter in ports, ferry services were suspended and access to valleys and other risky areas was restricted on the southern island of Jeju as precautions Sunday as a powerful typhoon was approaching South Korea.

Packing strong winds of 48 meters per second, Typhoon Sanba was moving northward at a speed of 26 kilometers per hour from about 80 kilometers off the southern Japanese island of Okinawa as of Sunday morning, according to the Korean Meteorological Administration.

The massive storm is expected to reach about 70 kilometers off Jeju around 9 a.m. Monday before making landfall in the South Jeolla Province in South Korea's southwest. The typhoon is then expected to move over South Korea's mainland to reach about 90 kilometers from Seoul on Monday night, officials said.

Up to 400 millimeters of rain is expected before it moves out of South Korea, officials said. As the typhoon approached, Jeju and other southern regions were already receiving rain Sunday.

On Jeju, about 3,000 ships took shelter at ports around the island, ferry services linking Jeju and nearby islands were suspended, and Mount Halla and other areas considered dangerous in such a storm were declared off-limit as precautionary measures.

Looking at the zero hour model error most the models initialized horribly on 92L. Looking over both direction & intensity I might be inclined to throw my forecast toward the HWRF for the next day or so.
hey guys I go on a break and come back and I find 92L about to enter the Caribbean Wow ok people give me a Sitrep on the curent situation please and thank you
92L


Quoting zicoille:
I completely think that the rain doesn't want to fall in the northern leewards islands...
Why 92L doesn't recurve? Are we going to stay without rain???
We wish all for a big system, that's right cariboy...


This is gonna be tragic if you all get missed again. Nothing worse than extreme drought in a tropical setting. Out of all the 'canes, tornadoes that summer of '98 when everything burnt up was the worse.

wunderkid~ people were wondering where you were yesterday over this wave..

Looks promising on Precipitable Water.

ZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
Nadine
Meh....

685. beell
Quoting wunderkidcayman:
hey guys I go on a break and come back and I find 92L about to enter the Caribbean Wow ok people give me a Sitrep on the curent situation please and thank you


14N 56W

Quoting Skyepony:
wunderkid~ people were wondering where you were yesterday over this wave..

Looks promising on Precipitable Water.



yeah sorry I've been busy taking some classes and doing some military training and so now I am free for now and I am working right now off of my PS3 and so it is harder to type

I think 92L will become a true caribbean storm hey maybe even a cane "Maybe" anyway in terms of track the models speaks it for me I think this one will make it into the W caribbean and will curve into the GOM
I still don't think 92L will develop. Instability is very, very low over the Caribbean and it simply just won't allow thunderstorms to develop over 92L. I doubt anything more than a brief and disorganized Tropical Depression, if that. Absolutely none of the major global models develop 92L into a major system, though the intensity models may think it might, there are other factors that come into play that 92L simply does not have. It is a fast mover, no closed circulation and currently disorganized dealing with a lot of dry air. Simply not seeing development at this time, but will monitor it.


6z NOGAPS:



0Z ECMWF:



It seems to me models are having trouble determining the exact timing of the series of troughs.
Quoting Grothar:


ALWAYS THE SAME!! VERY ANGRY MODE!!!
Quoting zicoille:
I completely think that the rain doesn't want to fall in the northern leewards islands...
Why 92L doesn't recurve? Are we going to stay without rain???
We wish all for a big system, that's right cariboy...


I do agree we badly need rain, and a decent TS would be so fine!! Though I don't think a Cat 3 or higher is a good idea lol :)

Also I really DON'T LIKE WHAT 92L IS DOING TO US. ALL THE RAINS SEEM TO BE FOR THE SAME ISLANDS AGAIN!!
JeffMasters has created a new entry.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I still don't think 92L will develop. Instability is very, very low over the Caribbean and it simply just won't allow thunderstorms to develop over 92L. I doubt anything more than a brief and disorganized Tropical Depression, if that. Absolutely none of the major global models develop 92L into a major system, though the intensity models may think it might, there are other factors that come into play that 92L simply does not have. It is a fast mover, no closed circulation and currently disorganized dealing with a lot of dry air. Simply not seeing development at this time, but will monitor it.

I don't think it should develop but it could surprise people and develop out of nowhere.
Quoting CybrTeddy:
I still don't think 92L will develop. Instability is very, very low over the Caribbean and it simply just won't allow thunderstorms to develop over 92L. I doubt anything more than a brief and disorganized Tropical Depression, if that. Absolutely none of the major global models develop 92L into a major system, though the intensity models may think it might, there are other factors that come into play that 92L simply does not have. It is a fast mover, no closed circulation and currently disorganized dealing with a lot of dry air. Simply not seeing development at this time, but will monitor it.



yep for right now 92L RIP
Quoting CaicosRetiredSailor:
http://hot-topic.co.nz/arctic-code-red-uncharted- territory/


... James Overland, reported in the Guardian:

These changes are happening much earlier than scientists thought, said James Overland, an oceanographer and researcher at the University of Washington.

“We’ve only had a little bit of global warming so far,” Overland said.

As the sea ice continues to decline, the jet stream will likely continue to slow more, and shift further north “bringing wild temperature swings and greater numbers of extreme events” in the future he said. “We’re in uncharted territory.”


etc...


Except that as the jet stream moves further north, it weakens. When it weakens, it's 'loops' meander further south, causing unusual weather.

We've had the wettest summer for 100 years here in the UK, due to being under the loops. They're usually further north.

In 2010, Russia and the Ukraine had their worst heat wave on record and Pakistan its worst floods. Unusual southerly position of the jet stream loops was blamed for both these events.